Lennar Corp (LEN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Lennar's Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I will now turn the call over to David Collins for reading of the forward-looking statement.

歡迎參加 Lennar 第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄製。如果您有任何異議，您可以此時斷開連接。我現在將把電話轉給大衛柯林斯閱讀前瞻性聲明。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Today's conference call may include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding Lennar's business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, strategies and prospects. Forward-looking statements represent only Lennar's estimates on the date of this conference call and are not intended to give any assurance as to actual future results.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Lennar 業務、財務狀況、運營業績、現金流、戰略和前景的陳述。前瞻性陳述僅代表 Lennar 對本次電話會議之日的估計，並不旨在對未來的實際結果提供任何保證。

Because forward-looking statements relate to matters that have not yet occurred, these statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could affect future results and may cause Lennar's actual activities or results to differ materially from the activities and results anticipated in forward-looking statements. These factors include those described in our earnings release, and our SEC filings, including those under the caption Risk Factors, contained in Lennar's annual report on Form 10-K most recently filed with the SEC. Please note that Lennar assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

由於前瞻性陳述涉及尚未發生的事項，因此這些陳述本質上會受到風險和不確定性的影響。許多因素可能影響未來的結果，並可能導致 Lennar 的實際活動或結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的活動和結果存在重大差異。這些因素包括我們的收益報告和 SEC 文件中描述的因素，包括 Lennar 最近向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格年度報告中“風險因素”標題下的因素。請注意，Lennar 不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

I would now like to introduce your host, Mr. Stuart Miller, Executive Chairman. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下你們的主持人，執行主席斯圖爾特·米勒先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Very good. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Sorry about the delay. We had a lot of people joining, wanted to make sure people had an opportunity to get in.

非常好。謝謝大家，大家早上好。抱歉耽擱了。我們有很多人加入，希望確保人們有機會加入。

I'm in Dallas today, together with Jon Jaffe, our Co-CEO and President. And we're joined remotely from Miami by Rick Beckwitt, our Co-CEO and Co-President; Diane Bessette, our Chief Financial Officer; David Collins, our Controller and Vice President; and Bruce Gross, our CEO of Lennar Financial Services. As I said, they are all in Miami, so there will be a bit of coordination here.

我今天在達拉斯，與我們的聯合首席執行官兼總裁喬恩·賈菲 (Jon Jaffe) 在一起。我們的聯席首席執行官兼聯席總裁 Rick Beckwitt 從邁阿密遠程加入我們。 Diane Bessette，我們的首席財務官； David Collins，我們的財務總監兼副總裁；以及 Lennar Financial Services 首席執行官 Bruce Gross。正如我所說，他們都在邁阿密，所以這裡會有一些協調。

As usual, I'm going to go ahead and give a macro and strategic overview of the company. After my introductory remarks, Rick is going to walk through our markets around the country, comment on our land position. Then Jon is going to update supply chain, cycle time and construction costs. And as usual, Diane will give a detailed financial highlight, along with some limited guidance for the third quarter to assist in forward thinking and some guidance for the year. And then we'll answer questions as many as we can. (Operator Instructions).

像往常一樣，我將繼續對公司進行宏觀和戰略概述。在我的介紹性發言之後，里克將參觀我們在全國各地的市場，對我們的土地位置發表評論。然後喬恩將更新供應鏈、週期時間和施工成本。與往常一樣，黛安將提供詳細的財務亮點，以及第三季度的一些有限指導，以協助前瞻性思維和今年的一些指導。然後我們將盡可能多地回答問題。 （操作員說明）。

So let me go ahead and begin by saying that we are quite pleased to report that the Lennar team has remained focused on production and pace, cash flow, inventory turns and return on capital, and we have again produced strong and consistent results for the quarter. Our second quarter results are consistent with the stabilization we have seen in the current economic environment as well as consistent adherence to our core operating strategies that we've discussed on prior quarterly conference calls.

首先我要說的是，我們非常高興地向大家報告，Lennar 團隊仍然專注於生產和節奏、現金流、庫存周轉率和資本回報率，並且我們再次在本季度取得了強勁且一致的業績。我們第二季度的業績與我們在當前經濟環境中看到的穩定情況以及對我們在之前的季度電話會議上討論的核心運營戰略的一貫堅持是一致的。

As it relates to Homebuilding, the economic environment has stabilized as customers have adjusted to and accepted higher-for-longer interest rates. The supply chain chaos has normalized, inventories have remained low, and the supply of housing across the country is in very limited supply.

就住宅建築而言，隨著客戶適應並接受更高、更長期的利率，經濟環境已經穩定。供應鏈混亂已常態化，庫存保持在低位，全國住房供應十分有限。

This environment seems to represent a new normal that is formed in the wake of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes starting last year. While persistent inflation remains in the system, aggressive rate hikes have given way to moderated and measured rate movements, allowing the market to adjust in orderly fashion. The strong demand for housing that had been curtailed by sticker shock and affordability challenges, has returned, while the housing market adjusted prices, incentives, including rate buydowns and production costs in order to enable customers to afford needed shelter.

這種環境似乎代表了美聯儲去年開始大幅加息後形成的新常態。儘管系統中仍然存在持續的通脹，但激進的加息已經被溫和且有節制的利率變動所取代，從而使市場能夠有序調整。因房價衝擊和負擔能力挑戰而受到抑制的強勁住房需求又回來了，同時房地產市場調整了價格、激勵措施，包括降低利率和生產成本，以使客戶能夠負擔得起所需的住房。

And even while interest rates and affordability were primary headwinds to demand, the well-documented chronic housing supply shortage has kept inventory levels very low, which has continued to propel customers to stretch their finances for needed housing, as incentives and price reductions combined to spark sales activity.

儘管利率和負擔能力是需求的主要阻力，但有據可查的長期住房供應短缺使庫存水平保持在非常低的水平，這繼續促使客戶為所需的住房而籌集資金，因為激勵措施和降價結合在一起激發了消費者的需求。銷售活動。

The net price of homes has moderated through price reductions, together with the use of interest rate buydowns and other incentives. And the net average sales price has stabilized and not gone higher, nor lower for that matter, even as demand has returned. We have seen in our numbers that net average sales prices on home closings have dropped approximately 10% or 11% on home sales from the peak of approximately $500,000 in 2022 to approximately $450,000 now, and we expect that, that pricing is going to remain constant throughout the year.

通過降價以及利率下調和其他激勵措施的使用，房屋淨價已經有所緩和。即使需求回升，淨平均銷售價格也已穩定下來，既沒有走高，也沒有走低。我們在數據中看到，房屋成交的淨平均銷售價格已從 2022 年約 50 萬美元的峰值下降至目前的約 45 萬美元，下降了約 10% 或 11%，我們預計價格將保持不變全年。

I would note additionally that through our Multifamily apartment division, we are also seeing that rental rates have moderated. Given our extensive experience in the Multifamily apartment market, along with our for sale and for-rent housing business, we see that there is general downward pressure on rents as many markets have become somewhat overbuilt, and there is additional inventory being completed and coming online. This inventory will complete over the next 1.5 years. While rents won't likely drop significantly, they are not likely to grow very much either, and remember that rentals and rent equivalents make up a significant part of the CPI calculation.

我還想指出的是，通過我們的多戶公寓部門，我們還發現租金有所下降。鑑於我們在多戶公寓市場的豐富經驗，以及我們的待售和出租住房業務，我們發現租金普遍存在下行壓力，因為許多市場已經變得有些過度建設，並且有額外的庫存正在完工並上線。該清單將在未來 1.5 年內完成。雖然租金不太可能大幅下降，但也不太可能增長太多，請記住，租金和租金等價物構成了 CPI 計算的重要組成部分。

Overall, we believe that the housing market has leveled. And while net average sales prices are lower, cancellations have been normalizing and margins have bottomed and are recovering as cost reductions and value engineering provide an offset to the price reductions.

總體而言，我們認為房地產市場已經趨於平穩。儘管平均淨銷售價格較低，但取消訂單已經正常化，利潤率已經觸底並正在恢復，因為成本降低和價值工程抵消了價格下降的影響。

Looking ahead, we continue to believe that the market and the economy will remain constructive for homebuilders as pent-up demand continues to come to market and consume affordable offerings. Additionally, we believe that the supply constraint will continue to limit available inventory and maintain supply-demand balance. The core elements of the supply shortage will not resolve in the near term as the almost 15-year production deficit will take years to resolve.

展望未來，我們仍然相信，隨著被壓抑的需求繼續湧入市場並消費價格實惠的產品，市場和經濟對房屋建築商來說仍將保持建設性。此外，我們認為供應限制將繼續限制可用庫存並維持供需平衡。供應短缺的核心問題不會在短期內得到解決，因為近 15 年的生產赤字將需要數年時間才能解決。

And note that even when existing homes with low interest mortgages that are not currently trading do come to the market and add to supply, the sellers will also need a place to move. And that creates a net 0 to overall dwellings, in addition to supply and in addition to demand and, therefore, still a housing shortage.

並請注意，即使當前未交易的低息抵押貸款的現有房屋確實進入市場並增加供應，賣家也需要一個地方搬家。除了供應和需求之外，這使得總體住房數量淨為零，因此仍然存在住房短缺。

Bottom line, supply is short, demand is returning to affordable offerings and builders will need to produce more homes to fill the void. Against this backdrop, the Lennar team has remained consistent in our commitment to strategies that we articulated as rates began to climb over a year ago. Let me do a quick review as these strategies explain both what we have accomplished as well as what we expect to accomplish throughout the remainder of the year.

最重要的是，供應短缺，需求正在回歸到負擔得起的產品，建築商將需要建造更多的房屋來填補空白。在此背景下，Lennar 團隊始終堅持我們在一年多前利率開始攀升時制定的戰略承諾。讓我快速回顧一下，因為這些策略解釋了我們已經取得的成就以及我們期望在今年剩餘時間內完成的任務。

First, we said then, as we say now, that we maintain volume and production as our constant and margin as our shock absorber, and we manage our business with certainty through volatility, staying focused on production, inventory turn, cash flow and return on assets. Accordingly, we maintained volume, keeping our production machine working efficiently while rationalizing costs.

首先，我們當時說過，正如我們現在所說的那樣，我們將數量和產量保持為常數，將利潤率作為減震器，並通過波動確定性地管理我們的業務，繼續關註生產、庫存周轉、現金流和回報率。資產。因此，我們維持了產量，保持生產機器高效運轉，同時合理化成本。

In the second quarter, our sales team engaged our digital marketing platform in conjunction with our dynamic pricing model to continue to drive sales volume at market pricing in order to maintain consistent production levels and improve our inventory turn. We affectionately call this configuration, the Lennar machine, and it is designed to produce consistent sales pace at pricing that enables consistency as the market adjusts. Although it is not perfect yet, the Lennar machine drove new order volume to 17,885 new orders, exceeding last year's volume by 1%, and this enabled our production group to operate with predictability and consistency.

在第二季度，我們的銷售團隊將我們的數字營銷平台與動態定價模型結合起來，繼續以市場定價推動銷量，以保持穩定的生產水平並改善我們的庫存周轉率。我們親切地將這種配置稱為 Lennar 機器，它的設計目的是在定價上實現一致的銷售節奏，從而在市場調整時實現一致性。儘管尚不完美，但 Lennar 機器將新訂單量推向了 17,885 份新訂單，比去年增加了 1%，這使我們的生產團隊能夠以可預測性和一致性的方式運營。

Additionally, we efficiently backfilled cancellations in the quarter, which have now dropped to some 13.5%, enabling our deliveries to exceed expectation at 17,074 deliveries, and that was up 3% over last year. If by chance, by the way, any of you happen to be in Miami, come on by and ask to see the Lennar machine in action. I think you'll get a better sense of our strategy, and you just might start to imagine where the often talked-about AI might find its way into the sometimes-dodgy homebuilding industry and improve productivity. And to this end, we have a new and exciting Chief Technology Officer at Lennar named Scott Spradley. Welcome aboard, Scott. Let's get to work.

此外，我們在本季度有效地彌補了取消訂單，目前取消訂單數量已降至 13.5% 左右，使我們的交付量超出了 17,074 份的預期，比去年增長了 3%。順便說一句，如果你們中的任何人碰巧在邁阿密，請過來並要求看看正在運行的 Lennar 機器。我認為您會對我們的戰略有更好的了解，並且您可能會開始想像經常談論的人工智能可能會在有時不可靠的住宅建築行業中找到出路並提高生產力。為此，Lennar 任命了一位令人興奮的新首席技術官，名叫 Scott Spradley。歡迎加入，斯科特。讓我們開始工作吧。

We've continued to focus on selling homes at market-clearing prices, reducing margin when conditions weaken and improving margin as conditions level and improve. Accordingly, our margins bottomed in the first quarter at 21.2%. Then, as the market leveled this past quarter, we saw margin improvement to 22.5%, and we're expecting further improvement next quarter to 23.5% to 24% and further improvement beyond that, of course, depending on market conditions. Through all phases of the market cycle, we are consistently producing strong cash flow.

我們繼續專注於以市場出清價格出售房屋，在情況疲軟時降低利潤率，並在情況穩定和改善時提高利潤率。因此，我們的利潤率在第一季度觸底至 21.2%。然後，隨著上個季度市場趨於平穩，我們看到利潤率提高到 22.5%，我們預計下季度將進一步提高到 23.5% 到 24%，當然，根據市場狀況，進一步提高到更高水平。在市場週期的各個階段，我們始終如一地產生強勁的現金流。

The elements of execution are working extremely well and improving with the Lennar machine, and we've gained confidence in our ability to now guide to increased volume for the year of 68,000 to 70,000 deliveries with strong margins and strong cash flow.

執行要素在 Lennar 機器的幫助下運行得非常好，並得到了改善，我們對自己現在能夠以強勁的利潤和強勁的現金流引導全年交付量增加 68,000 至 70,000 架的能力充滿信心。

Our second strategy has been to work with our trade partners to rightsize our cost structure to the current sales price environment while we continue to drive our cycle time to pre-supply chain crisis levels. Jon will cover this strategy in more detail shortly, but Jon and Rick have been focused across our platform with our production and our purchasing teams as well as our trade partners. Considerable results are reflected both on the margin improvement and in the number of homes that we -- that were construction-ready and available for delivery.

我們的第二個策略是與我們的貿易夥伴合作，根據當前的銷售價格環境調整我們的成本結構，同時繼續將周期時間推向供應鏈危機前的水平。喬恩將很快更詳細地介紹這一策略，但喬恩和里克一直專注於我們的生產和採購團隊以及貿易合作夥伴的整個平台。顯著的成果體現在利潤率的提高和我們已準備好施工並可供交付的房屋數量上。

On the margin front, since Lennar led the way with the reduction in margin, while maintaining volume and increasing market share as the market corrected in the wake of an industry-wide reduction in starts, we engaged our trade partners to work side-by-side with us to help find efficiencies in production, to rightsize their margins as well and to work side-by-side in driving efficiencies on the site. As margin expanded in the best of times, they benefited. As margins have now contracted in the more difficult times, we all understand the benefits of predictability and consistency that derives from consistent volume and scale.

在利潤方面，由於 Lennar 率先降低了利潤，同時在全行業開工量減少後市場進行調整時保持了銷量並增加了市場份額，因此我們與我們的貿易夥伴合作並肩工作——與我們一起幫助提高生產效率，調整利潤，並並肩努力提高現場效率。在最好的時期，隨著利潤率的擴大，他們受益匪淺。由於在困難時期利潤率已經萎縮，我們都明白來自一致的數量和規模的可預測性和一致性的好處。

Cycle time continues to be a work in progress. While we continue to make improvement, we improved from 219 days last quarter to 215 this quarter, this is truly like fixing a plane that is in flight as progress is slow and difficult to measure as products change. Nevertheless, we're making slow-but-steady progress as improvement will help reduce inventory turn, which now stands at 1.2 versus 1.1 last year.

週期時間仍然是一項正在進行的工作。在我們不斷改進的同時，我們從上季度的 219 天提高到本季度的 215 天，這確實就像修理一架正在飛行的飛機，因為進度緩慢且隨著產品的變化而難以衡量。儘管如此，我們正在取得緩慢但穩定的進展，因為改進將有助於減少庫存周轉率，庫存周轉率目前為 1.2，而去年為 1.1。

Our third strategy is to sharpen our attention on land and land acquisitions as well as on land and land bank strategy. While Rick will give additional detail on land, this has been a specific concentrated focus by all 3 of us, myself, Rick and Jon, across the platform working connected and together to refine our approach to reducing land exposure and becoming increasingly asset-light. We've made significant progress in reducing land held on our balance sheet with now 70% of our land controlled and only 30% owned. As with our trade partners, our land partners or sellers have become strategic partners in maintaining volume and increasing market share while helping to rationalize cost.

我們的第三個戰略是加強對土地和土地收購以及土地和土地儲備戰略的關注。雖然里克將提供有關土地的更多細節，但這一直是我們三人（我、里克和喬恩）在整個平台上相互聯繫並共同努力的具體重點，以完善我們減少土地風險並日益輕資產化的方法。我們在減少資產負債表上持有的土地方面取得了重大進展，目前我們控制了 70% 的土地，而僅擁有 30% 的土地。與我們的貿易夥伴一樣，我們的土地合作夥伴或賣家已成為戰略合作夥伴，在保持數量和增加市場份額的同時幫助合理化成本。

Our fourth playbook strategy was to manage our operating cost or our SG&A so that even at lower gross margin, we will drive a strong net margin. While we've been driving our SG&A down over the past years quarter-by-quarter to new record lows, and many of those changes, although not all, are hardwired into permanent inefficiencies in operations, there are some components that have grown as we've had to address more difficult market conditions. Examples, of course, are realtor costs and marketing expenses, which have had to expand as customer acquisition has become more challenging. Nevertheless, we were able to achieve a respectable 6.7% SG&A this quarter, which resulted in a strong net margin of 15.8% at the net.

我們的第四個策略是管理我們的運營成本或銷售及管理費用，這樣即使在毛利率較低的情況下，我們也能實現強勁的淨利潤率。雖然過去幾年我們的銷售管理及行政費用逐季下降至歷史新低，而且其中許多變化（儘管不是全部）都與運營中的永久性低效率有關，但隨著我們的發展，一些組成部分已經增長。必須應對更加困難的市場條件。當然，例子是房地產經紀人成本和營銷費用，隨著客戶獲取變得更具挑戰性，這些費用不得不增加。儘管如此，本季度我們仍實現了 6.7% 的 SG&A，可觀的 SG&A，從而實現了 15.8% 的強勁淨利潤率。

We know that in more difficult times, there is, and should be, upward pressure on sales and marketing costs in order to drive and find purchasers and drive new sales. We believe, however, if we continue to drive volume, we'll be able to constrain increases and manage to a very attractive cost level and net margin.

我們知道，在更加困難的時期，銷售和營銷成本存在而且應該存在上升壓力，以推動和尋找購買者並推動新的銷售。然而，我們相信，如果我們繼續提高銷量，我們將能夠限制增長並實現非常有吸引力的成本水平和淨利潤。

Our fifth playbook strategy was to maintain tight inventory control. And the Lennar machine of digital marketing, sales management and dynamic pricing has materially improved inventory control by enabling a focus on selling homes in inventory, focusing maximum attention on underperforming communities and bringing attention to product plans that are simply just not selling. Clearing the homes that are complete and closable rather than selling homes that are many quarters in the future is exactly what drives cash flow, and we're focused on this part of our business every day.

我們的第五個策略是保持嚴格的庫存控制。 Lennar 的數字營銷、銷售管理和動態定價機器通過重點關注庫存房屋的銷售、最大限度地關注表現不佳的社區以及根本不銷售的產品計劃，極大地改善了庫存控制。清理完整且可關閉的房屋，而不是出售未來多個季度的房屋，正是推動現金流的原因，我們每天都專注於這部分業務。

Both land and home inventory control is mission central for our overall business. And in our second quarter numbers, you can see in our continuing quarterly improvement in our now 13.3% debt-to-total capital -- capitalization ratio, down from 14.2% last quarter, and our $4 billion cash position, that our inventory and our balance sheet is being carefully managed to provide excellent liquidity and flexibility for our future.

土地和房屋庫存控制是我們整體業務的核心任務。在我們第二季度的數據中，您可以看到我們的債務與總資本資本比率目前為 13.3%，低於上季度的 14.2%，並且我們的現金狀況為 40 億美元，我們的庫存和我們的現金狀況持續改善。我們正在精心管理資產負債表，以便為我們的未來提供卓越的流動性和靈活性。

These elements of the business continue to be managed through every other day management meetings where numbers are reviewed at the regional and divisional levels by the entire management team. Starts, sales and closings are maintained in a controlled balance with the end result of volume with defined expectations.

這些業務要素繼續通過每隔一天的管理會議進行管理，整個管理團隊在區域和部門級別審查數字。開工、銷售和結賬保持在受控平衡狀態，最終銷量結果符合明確的預期。

The sixth playbook strategy was to continue to focus on cash flow and bottom line in order to protect and enhance our already extraordinary balance sheet. If we reflect on our second quarter results, we not only accomplished excellent cash flow and bottom-line results, but we repurchased $208 million of stock and we also repurchased approximately $158 million of senior debt due in fiscal 2024. We expect to continue to generate considerable earnings and cash flow. And accordingly, we'll continue to retire debt and purchase stock opportunistically.

第六個策略是繼續關注現金流和利潤，以保護和增強我們本已非凡的資產負債表。如果我們反思第二季度的業績，我們不僅實現了出色的現金流和淨利潤，而且還回購了 2.08 億美元的股票，還回購了 2024 財年到期的約 1.58 億美元的優先債務。我們預計將繼續產生可觀的收入和現金流。因此，我們將繼續償還債務並趁機購買股票。

Let me say in conclusion that our second quarter of 2023 has been an excellent quarter for Lennar. We saw market conditions level and stabilize, at least for now, and we executed on our core strategies. We are extremely well positioned to navigate the uncertainties of the current market. We engaged the difficulties of the past year with a consistent strategy that promoted certainty of execution throughout the company. When market conditions were difficult and uncertain, Lennar associates knew their mission. Similarly, as the market has leveled, Lennar associates know mission and exactly how to execute.

最後我想說的是，2023 年第二季度對於 Lennar 來說是一個出色的季度。我們看到市場狀況水平並穩定，至少目前如此，並且我們執行了我們的核心戰略。我們處於非常有利的位置來應對當前市場的不確定性。我們以一致的戰略應對過去一年的困難，提高了整個公司執行的確定性。當市場狀況困難且不確定時，Lennar 員工知道他們的使命。同樣，隨著市場趨於平穩，Lennar 員工知道使命以及具體如何執行。

Our strategy is well known and understood through our division offices, and we have a plan that -- we have a plan as the inevitable cycles of our industry ebb and flow. We focus on maintaining volume while we price our homes to drive a consistent pace. We work with our trade base to manage cost and inefficiencies -- and efficiencies. We manage both our land and our production inventories to drive cash flow and returns on investment. We focused our asset-light model in order to drive balance sheet efficiency and drive return on investment. Finally, we fortify our balance sheet to have liquidity for strength and flexibility.

我們的戰略是眾所周知的，並通過我們的部門辦公室理解，我們有一個計劃——我們有一個計劃作為我們行業潮起潮落的不可避免的周期。我們專注於維持銷量，同時對房屋進行定價以保持一致的步伐。我們與我們的貿易基地合作來管理成本和低效率以及效率。我們管理土地和生產庫存，以推動現金流和投資回報。我們專注於輕資產模式，以提高資產負債表效率並提高投資回報。最後，我們強化資產負債表，以擁有流動性來增強實力和靈活性。

Knowing what to do and executing per plan has driven this quarter's success and continues to guide us into the next quarter and beyond. We are confident that we will continue to perform and drive Lennar to new levels of performance. Thank you. And now let me turn over to Rick.

知道該做什麼並執行每個計劃推動了本季度的成功，並將繼續指導我們進入下一個季度及以後。我們相信，我們將繼續表現並推動 Lennar 達到新的績效水平。謝謝。現在讓我向里克求助。

Thanks, Stuart. As you can tell from Stuart's opening comments, the housing market has continued to normalize and recover as buyers have become more comfortable with higher mortgage rates. Site inventory levels in the resale and new home market propelled demand for available new homes, and we offered a combination of attractive pricing and compelling mortgage rate programs to capture that demand.

謝謝，斯圖爾特。從斯圖爾特的開場白中可以看出，隨著買家對更高的抵押貸款利率變得更加滿意，房地產市場繼續正常化和復蘇。轉售和新房市場的場地庫存水平推動了對可用新房的需求，我們提供了有吸引力的定價和引人注目的抵押貸款利率計劃的組合來滿足這一需求。

While many of our markets are performing well, in all of our markets, we are regularly adjusting base prices and incentives to maintain our targeted sales pace. Our strategy has been to maintain our targeted start pace, continue to sell homes and adjust our pricing to reflect market conditions. To [match] sales with starts, we have used dynamic pricing model, and the Lennar machine Stuart just previewed to continuously find the market clearing price of each of our homes on a community-by-community basis as quickly as possible. We fundamentally believe that our price-to-market strategy reflects our balance sheet for its focus so we can maximize starts and sales, increase market share, generate cash flow and keep our Homebuilding machine going. To this end, Jon will discuss the operational and cost benefits of maintaining our start pace.

雖然我們的許多市場表現良好，但在所有市場中，我們都會定期調整基本價格和激勵措施，以維持我們的目標銷售速度。我們的策略是保持目標啟動速度，繼續銷售房屋並調整定價以反映市場狀況。為了將銷售量與開工率進行匹配，我們使用了動態定價模型，而 Stuart 剛剛預覽的 Lennar 機器可以在逐個社區的基礎上盡快持續找到我們每個房屋的市場出清價格。我們從根本上相信，我們的市價策略反映了我們的資產負債表的重點，因此我們可以最大限度地提高開工率和銷量，增加市場份額，產生現金流並保持我們的住宅建築機器的運轉。為此，喬恩將討論保持我們的啟動速度的運營和成本效益。

Our second quarter results reflect the successful execution of our price-to-market strategy. During the quarter, our new sales orders increased 1% from the prior year and 26% from the first quarter, with the first and second quarter seasonal change exceeding our historical average over the last 3 years.

我們第二季度的業績反映了我們的市價策略的成功執行。本季度，我們的新銷售訂單同比增長 1%，環比增長 26%，第一季度和第二季度的季節性變化超過了過去 3 年的歷史平均水平。

New orders increased sequentially in each month during the quarter. Our sales pace per community averaged 4.8 in the second quarter, down 4% from the prior year, but up 23% from the first quarter. Our second quarter new sales price decreased 11% from the prior year and was up a slight 1% from the first quarter. Our cancellation rate during the quarter totaled 13.5%, which was a significant improvement from our first quarter. All of these operating comparisons reflected stabilization and normalization across our markets and Lennar's continued focus on using price and incentives to achieve our targeted sales pace per community. These results compare very favorably to national reported results and highlight the increase in our market share across our footprint, driven by a carefully crafted starts and sales program. Our sales activity and cancellation rates in the first few weeks of June have been consistent with our second quarter results.

本季度每個月新訂單均環比增長。第二季度每個社區的銷售速度平均為 4.8，比去年同期下降 4%，但比第一季度增長 23%。我們第二季度的新銷售價格比去年同期下降了 11%，比第一季度小幅上漲了 1%。本季度我們的取消率總計 13.5%，比第一季度有了顯著改善。所有這些運營比較都反映了我們市場的穩定和正常化，以及 Lennar 繼續專注於利用價格和激勵措施來實現每個社區的目標銷售速度。這些結果與國家報告的結果相比非常有利，並突顯了在精心設計的啟動和銷售計劃的推動下，我們整個足蹟的市場份額不斷增加。六月前幾週的銷售活動和取消率與第二季度的業績一致。

I'd now like to give you an update on our markets across the country. In prior quarters, I described 3 categories: one, markets that are performing well; two, markets that are performing but require slightly higher pricing adjustments and incentives to maintain our targeted sales. And three, markets that require more aggressive pricing adjustments, incentives and repositioning to regain momentum. In the second quarter, we did not have any of the category 3 markets.

現在我想向您介紹我們全國市場的最新情況。在前幾個季度中，我描述了三類：一是表現良好的市場；二是表現良好的市場；三是市場表現良好的市場。第二，表現良好但需要稍高的定價調整和激勵措施以維持我們的目標銷售的市場。第三，市場需要更積極的定價調整、激勵措施和重新定位才能重獲動力。第二季度，我們沒有任何第三類市場。

During the second quarter and so far, in June, we've had 14 markets that are performing well. These include Southwest Florida, Southeast Florida, Tampa, Palm Atlantic; New Jersey; the Philly Metro Area; Charlotte, Raleigh and Coastal Carolinas; Indianapolis; Dallas and Houston; Phoenix and San Diego. These markets are benefiting from low inventory, and many are benefiting from a strong local economy, employment growth or in migration. New sales in these markets reflect more normalized incentives, which may include closing costs assistance, minor mortgage rate buydown in order to maintain sales momentum.

從第二季度到 6 月份，我們有 14 個市場表現良好。其中包括佛羅里達州西南部、佛羅里達州東南部、坦帕、大西洋棕櫚島；新澤西州;費城都會區；夏洛特、羅利和卡羅萊納州沿海地區；印第安納波利斯；達拉斯和休斯頓；菲尼克斯和聖地亞哥。這些市場受益於低庫存，許多市場受益於強勁的當地經濟、就業增長或移民。這些市場的新銷售反映了更加正常化的激勵措施，其中可能包括成交成本援助、小額抵押貸款利率下調，以維持銷售勢頭。

In the second quarter, we had 26 Category 2 markets. While many of these markets have improved relative to the first quarter and are meeting our sales targets, they still require higher pricing adjustments and incentives in our Category 1 markets.

第二季度，我們有 26 個 2 類市場。雖然其中許多市場相對於第一季度有所改善並且正在達到我們的銷售目標，但它們仍然需要我們的 1 類市場進行更高的定價調整和激勵措施。

Our Category 2 markets include Jacksonville, Ocala, Orlando, Gulf Coast, Northern Alabama, Atlanta, Virginia and Maryland, Chicago and Minneapolis, Nashville, Austin, San Antonio, Colorado, Tucson, Las Vegas, Cal Coastal, the Inland Empire, the Bay Area, Central Valley, Sacramento, Portland, Seattle, Utah, Reno and Boise. While inventory is limited in each of these markets, we've to offer mortgage rate items, base price reductions, closing costs and other incentives to maintain momentum. The size of the adjustment will vary on a community-by-community basis, and that's often been limited to specific homes each week. We've been very proactive and work closely with Lennar Mortgage to create highly attractive, cost-efficient and timely financing packages that have enabled us to offer attractive purchase prices for our customers. This hands-on coordination between our sales and mortgage teams has enabled us to sell our homes quickly and avoid building up finished inventory.

我們的 2 類市場包括傑克遜維爾、奧卡拉、奧蘭多、墨西哥灣沿岸、阿拉巴馬州北部、亞特蘭大、弗吉尼亞州和馬里蘭州、芝加哥和明尼阿波利斯、納什維爾、奧斯汀、聖安東尼奧、科羅拉多州、圖森、拉斯維加斯、加州沿海、內陸帝國、海灣地區地區、中央谷、薩克拉門托、波特蘭、西雅圖、猶他州、里諾和博伊西。雖然這些市場的庫存有限，但我們必須提供抵押貸款利率項目、基本價格降低、成交成本和其他激勵措施來保持勢頭。調整的規模會因社區而異，而且通常每週僅限於特定家庭。我們一直非常積極主動，與 Lennar Mortgage 密切合作，打造極具吸引力、經濟高效且及時的融資方案，使我們能夠為客戶提供具有吸引力的購買價格。我們的銷售和抵押團隊之間的這種實際協調使我們能夠快速出售房屋並避免積累成品庫存。

Before I turn it over to Jon, I'd like to discuss our land-light strategy and community count. Much of our balance sheet and inventory management progress is driven by the execution of our land strategy while simultaneously driving sales, delivery and managing production. Quarter after quarter, we have worked with our strategic land partners and land banks to develop relationships for them to purchase land on our behalf and deliver just-in-time finished home sites to our Homebuilding machine on a monthly and quarterly basis.

在將其交給喬恩之前，我想討論一下我們的土地照明策略和社區數量。我們的資產負債表和庫存管理進展大部分是由土地戰略的執行推動的，同時推動銷售、交付和管理生產。每個季度，我們都與戰略土地合作夥伴和土地銀行合作，發展關係，讓他們代表我們購買土地，並按月和按季度向我們的住宅建築機器及時交付完工的住宅用地。

In the second quarter, about 90% of our $1.2 billion land acquisition with finished homesites purchased from various land structures. We continue to make significant progress on our land-light strategy. This was evidenced by our second quarter ending years owned supply of homesites improving to 1.7 years from 2.4 years prior year and our controlled home site percentage increasing to 70% from 60% for the same time period.

第二季度，我們 12 億美元的土地收購中約 90% 是從各種土地結構購買的成品住宅用地。我們繼續在陸上輕型戰略方面取得重大進展。我們第二季度末自有住宅供應年數從去年同期的 2.4 年提高到 1.7 年，我們的受控住宅用地百分比從同期的 60% 增加到 70%，就證明了這一點。

I would like to conclude by discussing community count. Our community count at the end of the second quarter was 1,263 communities, which is up 3% from the prior year period, and we expect to increase our community count in the high single digits by the end of fiscal 2023 from the end of fiscal 2022. As I mentioned last quarter, the bulk of these communities will come online in the fourth quarter.

最後我想討論一下社區計數。截至第二季度末，我們的社區數量為 1,263 個社區，比上年同期增長 3%，我們預計到 2023 財年末，我們的社區數量將從 2022 財年末增加到高個位數正如我上季度提到的，大部分社區將在第四季度上線。

I'd now like to turn it over to Jon.

我現在想把它交給喬恩。

Thank you, Rick. As Stuart, Rick discussed, Lennar's operations have continued the steady execution of maintaining our starts and sales pace. Our strategy is to price homes to market so our construction machine can operate smoothly without the disruptions of stopping and restarting. This strategy enabled us to reduce our direct construction cost as expected, delivering gross margin improvement in the quarter. While we achieved some gross margin benefit in Q2 from cost reductions, a greater amount of cost reductions will impact margins equally in Q3 and Q4 based on the timing of when homes were started.

謝謝你，瑞克。正如 Stuart、Rick 所討論的那樣，Lennar 的運營繼續穩定執行，維持了我們的開工率和銷售速度。我們的策略是根據市場定價，以便我們的建築機械能夠平穩運行，而不會因停止和重啟而受到干擾。這一戰略使我們能夠按預期降低直接建設成本，從而提高本季度的毛利率。雖然我們在第二季度通過成本降低獲得了一些毛利率收益，但根據房屋開工的時間，更大量的成本降低將同等地影響第三季度和第四季度的利潤率。

As noted, our quarterly starts and sales pace were 5.3 homes and 4.8 homes per community, respectively. Utilizing the Lennar machine, we focused on the orderly selling of homes at the right pace. So homes are sold prior to their completion. This process allowed us to not build up excess finished inventory as we ended the second quarter with approximately 1 inventory home per community, consistent with our Q1 ending inventory level.

如前所述，每個社區的季度開工量和銷售量分別為 5.3 套和 4.8 套。利用 Lennar 機器，我們專注於以正確的速度有序銷售房屋。因此，房屋在竣工之前就被出售。這一過程使我們不會積累過多的成品庫存，因為我們在第二季度末每個社區大約有 1 個庫存住宅，與我們第一季度末的庫存水平一致。

Our strategy of maintaining starts also plays a major role in gaining access to the labor we need and is the foundation for our previously stated objectives of lowering construction cost, reducing cycle time and achieving even flow production. While Lennar's starts were down year-over-year for the first half of '23, industry-wide start levels were down 100% more than Lennar's. We've heard from our trade partners how important it is to them that we have maintained starts in all of our communities in all markets.

我們的維持開工戰略在獲得所需勞動力方面也發揮著重要作用，也是我們之前提出的降低建設成本、縮短週期時間和實現均勻流生產目標的基礎。雖然 Lennar 的開工率在 20 年上半年同比下降，但整個行業的開工率比 Lennar 下降了 100%。我們從貿易夥伴那裡得知，我們在所有市場的所有社區中保持起步對他們來說是多麼重要。

Our production-first strategy has had a dramatic effect on Lennar being the builder of choice for trades. At many of our trade partners, Lennar represents over 70% of their business. These trade partners saw little to no decrease in their work, while at the same time, the industry start levels were contracting by 30%. Looking forward, we will continue to increase our starts and expect Q3 and Q4 starts to both be above 2022 levels.

我們的生產優先戰略對 Lennar 成為行業首選的建設商產生了巨大影響。在我們的許多貿易夥伴中，Lennar 佔其業務的 70% 以上。這些貿易夥伴的工作量幾乎沒有減少，而與此同時，行業開工水平卻下降了 30%。展望未來，我們將繼續增加開工率，預計第三季度和第四季度的開工率均高於 2022 年的水平。

Looking at our second quarter. As expected, our construction costs fell sequentially from Q1 by about 3%. While our Q2 costs were up about 8% on a year-over-year basis, this was down significantly from the 13% year-over-year increase we had in Q1. Again, this is the trajectory of cost reductions we guided to last quarter.

看看我們的第二季度。正如預期，我們的建築成本較第一季度環比下降了約 3%。雖然我們第二季度的成本同比增長約 8%，但與第一季度 13% 的同比增幅相比明顯下降。這也是我們上季度指導的成本削減軌跡。

In addition to our trade partners stepping up with cost reductions, we also took our value engineering focus to a new level. While we have always value-engineered our plans, we created a dedicated team as part of our national supply chain group to focus on this area. This team works hand-in-hand with our divisions, both in the field and the office to drive cost and constructability efficiencies. Going forward, this team will focus on our core plan strategy.

除了我們的貿易夥伴加大成本削減力度之外，我們還將價值工程重點提升到了一個新的水平。雖然我們始終對我們的計劃進行價值設計，但我們創建了一個專門的團隊作為我們國家供應鏈團隊的一部分來專注於這一領域。該團隊與我們在現場和辦公室的各個部門攜手合作，以提高成本和可施工效率。展望未來，該團隊將專注於我們的核心計劃策略。

Rick and I were in Houston last week, attending our Internal Annual National Supply Chain meeting led by Kemp Gillis. There, we saw firsthand how this team has shifted from fighting the battle of supply chain disruptions to achieving the needed cost reductions to offset our sales price reductions. Now this team is looking ahead and is fully engaged in initiatives that will impact our results in 2024 and beyond. This includes programs to structurally offset future cost increase pressures and to implement new technologies to both make the field process more efficient than ever and transform the way we manage information for the bidding process. We can report that there is a great intensity in this team and more focus on innovation than ever before.

里克和我上週在休斯敦，參加了由坎普·吉利斯 (Kemp Gillis) 主持的內部年度全國供應鏈會議。在那裡，我們親眼目睹了這個團隊如何從應對供應鏈中斷的戰斗轉向實現所需的成本削減以抵消我們的銷售價格下降。現在，該團隊放眼未來，並全力參與將影響我們 2024 年及以後業績的舉措。這包括從結構上抵消未來成本增加壓力的計劃，以及實施新技術，使現場流程比以往更加高效，並改變我們管理招標流程信息的方式。我們可以報告說，這個團隊比以往任何時候都更加專注，並且更加註重創新。

With respect to the supply chain, the second quarter had the least supply chain disruption since 2020. This was due to the combination of a steep decline in industry-wide starts, along with manufacturers operating at much higher capacities for an extended period, augmented by Lennar's supply chain strategies and communication. The lack of supply chain disruptions helped our continued reduction in supply -- in cycle time. We saw a modest improvement in our second quarter and expect to see a more meaningful improvement in the back half of the year.

就供應鏈而言，第二季度的供應鏈中斷是 2020 年以來最少的。這是由於全行業開工率急劇下降，以及製造商在較長時間內以更高的產能運營，加上Lennar 的供應鏈戰略和溝通。供應鏈沒有中斷有助於我們在周期內持續減少供應。我們在第二季度看到了適度的改善，並預計在今年下半年會看到更有意義的改善。

For the quarter, cycle time decreased by 4 days sequentially from Q1. As we move into our third and fourth quarters, we will benefit from greater cycle time reductions that are the primary driver for our increased guidance and deliveries for 2023. Additionally, we will start about 3,500 homes in Q3 that will -- with reduced cycle time, will allow us to have the appropriate inventory levels to achieve our delivery guidance. The reduction in cycle time in the back half of the year will also free up cash that is otherwise tied in our inventory, further strengthening our balance sheet.

本季度的周期時間比第一季度連續減少了 4 天。隨著我們進入第三和第四季度，我們將受益於更大幅度的周期時間縮短，這是我們增加 2023 年指導和交付量的主要驅動力。此外，我們將在第三季度啟動約 3,500 套房屋，週期時間將縮短，將使我們能夠擁有適當的庫存水平來實現我們的交貨指導。下半年周期時間的縮短也將釋放我們庫存中的現金，進一步加強我們的資產負債表。

In the second quarter, we made meaningful progress in evolving from the production challenges of the supply chain disruptions toward even flow production. While there is still meaningful progress to be made in obtaining even flow production from start to finish, I want to take this opportunity to recognize and thank all of our construction and purchasing associates for delivering one of the smoothest quarters of closings. All of us at Lennar are focused every single day on lowering cost, reducing cycle time, achieving even flow production, enabling improved margins, SG&A efficiencies, a stronger balance sheet and to deliver high-quality affordable homes.

第二季度，我們在從供應鏈中斷的生產挑戰轉向均勻流生產方面取得了有意義的進展。雖然在從始至終獲得均勻的流程生產方面仍需取得有意義的進展，但我想藉此機會表彰並感謝我們所有的建築和採購同事，他們實現了最順利的季度結賬之一。 Lennar 的所有人每天都專注於降低成本、縮短週期時間、實現均勻的流生產、提高利潤、SG&A 效率、更強大的資產負債表以及提供高質量的經濟適用房。

I would now like to turn it over to Diane.

我現在想把它交給黛安。

Thank you, Jon, and good morning, everyone. Stuart, Rick and Jon have provided a great deal of color regarding our Homebuilding performance. So therefore, as usual, I'm going to spend a few minutes on the results of Financial Services and reemphasize some of our balance sheet accomplishments and then provide some high-level thoughts for Q3.

謝謝你，喬恩，大家早上好。斯圖爾特、里克和喬恩為我們的住宅建築表現提供了大量的色彩。因此，像往常一樣，我將花幾分鐘時間討論金融服務業的業績，並再次強調我們的一些資產負債表成就，然後為第三季度提供一些高層次的想法。

So starting with Financial Services. For the second quarter, our Financial Services team had operating earnings of $112 million. Looking at the details of the mortgage and total operations, mortgage operating earnings were $82 million compared to $74 million in the prior year. The increase in earnings was driven by a higher profit per locked loans due to higher secondary margins, which was partially offset by lower lock volume. Total operating earnings were $33 million compared to $30 million in the prior year. Title earnings increased, primarily as a result of higher volume and a decrease in cost per transaction as the team continues to focus on gaining efficiencies through technology.

所以從金融服務開始。第二季度，我們的金融服務團隊的營業收入為 1.12 億美元。從抵押貸款和總業務的詳細情況來看，抵押貸款營業收入為 8,200 萬美元，而上一年為 7,400 萬美元。收益的增長是由於二級利潤率較高而導致每筆鎖定貸款的利潤較高，但鎖定量的下降部分抵消了這一增長。總營業收入為 3,300 萬美元，上一年為 3,000 萬美元。頭銜收入增加，主要是由於團隊繼續專注於通過技術提高效率，因此交易量增加和每筆交易成本下降。

These solid results were accomplished as a result of great synergies between our Homebuilding and Financial Services team as they successfully executed together through this evolving market. They truly operate under the banner of one Lennar.

這些堅實的成果是我們的住宅建築和金融服務團隊在這個不斷發展的市場中成功共同執行的巨大協同作用的結果。他們真正在 Lennar 的旗幟下運作。

So now turning to the balance sheet. There is a constant drumbeat at Lennar to be laser-focused on returns on invested capital and cash flow. This quarter, we were unwavering in our determination to churn our inventory and generate cash by increasing production as we priced homes to market to deliver as many homes as possible. The drumbeat continued with our determination to preserve cash and increase asset efficiency with a judicious eye towards land spend.

現在轉向資產負債表。 Lennar 不斷呼籲高度關注投資資本和現金流的回報。本季度，我們堅定不移地決心通過增加產量來減少庫存並產生現金，同時我們根據市場定價，以交付盡可能多的房屋。我們決心保留現金並提高資產效率，同時明智地對待土地支出，這一鼓聲仍在繼續。

As we noted, we spent approximately $1.2 billion on land purchases this quarter, of which approximately 90% were finished homesites, where a vertical construction will soon begin. The results of these strategies is that we ended the quarter with $4 billion of cash and no borrowings on our $2.6 billion revolving credit facility. This provided a total of $6.6 billion of Homebuilding liquidity.

正如我們所指出的，本季度我們花費了約 12 億美元購買土地，其中約 90% 是已完工的住宅區，垂直建設即將開始。這些策略的結果是，我們在本季度結束時擁有 40 億美元的現金，並且 26 億美元的循環信貸額度沒有任何借款。這為住宅建設提供了總計 66 億美元的流動資金。

Given our continued focus on balance sheet efficiency, we enhanced our goal of becoming land lighter. As we noted, our years owned improved to 1.7 years from 2.4 years in the prior year, and our homesites controlled increased to 70% from 68% in the prior year. At quarter end, we owned 117,000 homesites and control 270,000 homesites, for a total of 387,000 homesites. We believe this portfolio of homesites provides us with a strong competitive position to continue to grow market share in a capital-efficient way.

鑑於我們持續關注資產負債表效率，我們提高了土地輕量化的目標。正如我們所指出的，我們的擁有年限從上一年的 2.4 年增加到 1.7 年，我們的宅基地控制權從上一年的 68% 增加到 70%。截至季度末，我們擁有 117,000 個宅基地並控制 270,000 個宅基地，總計 387,000 個宅基地。我們相信，這個住宅區組合為我們提供了強大的競爭地位，能夠以資本高效的方式繼續擴大市場份額。

During the quarter, we started about 19,700 homes and ended the quarter with approximately 37,300 total homes in inventory, of which about 1,300 were completed unsold as we successfully managed our finished inventory levels.

本季度，我們開工了約 19,700 套房屋，到本季度結束時，庫存房屋總數約為 37,300 套，其中約 1,300 套因我們成功管理成品庫存水平而未售出。

Consistent with our commitment to strategic capital allocation, we repurchased 2 million shares totaling $208 million and we paid dividends totaling $110 million. As our -- in our continued effort to further strengthen our balance sheet by reducing our debt balances, as we noted, we repurchased $158 million aggregate principal amount of senior notes due in fiscal 2024 at prices below par. We've repaid about $5.6 billion of senior notes over the last several years, which equates to approximately $300 million of interest savings. Combined with strong earnings, our Homebuilding debt-to-total capital ratio was 13.3% at quarter end, our lowest ever, which is an improvement from 17.7% in the prior year.

根據我們對戰略資本配置的承諾，我們回購了 200 萬股股票，總額達 2.08 億美元，並支付了總額 1.1 億美元的股息。正如我們所指出的，我們不斷努力通過減少債務餘額來進一步加強我們的資產負債表，我們以低於面值的價格回購了 2024 財年到期的本金總額為 1.58 億美元的高級票據。過去幾年我們償還了約 56 億美元的優先票據，相當於節省了約 3 億美元的利息。加上強勁的盈利，季度末我們的住宅建築債務與總資本比率為 13.3%，為歷史最低水平，較上一年的 17.7% 有所改善。

And then just a few final points on our balance sheet. We remain committed to increasing returns. Our shareholders' equity increased to $25 billion; our book value per share increased to $87, our return on inventory was 28%, and our return on equity was 18%.

然後是我們資產負債表上的最後幾點。我們仍然致力於增加回報。我們的股東權益增至 250 億美元；我們的每股賬面價值增加到 87 美元，庫存回報率為 28%，股本回報率為 18%。

So in summary, the strength of our balance sheet, strong liquidity and low leverage provides us with significant confidence and financial flexibility as we move through 2023.

總而言之，我們的資產負債表實力、強勁的流動性和低杠桿率為我們在 2023 年邁進提供了巨大的信心和財務靈活性。

So with that brief overview, I'd like to turn to our thoughts for the third quarter and provide some ranges of each of the components of earnings as well as a few data points for fiscal 2023.

因此，在簡要概述之後，我想談談我們對第三季度的想法，並提供收益每個組成部分的一些範圍以及 2023 財年的一些數據點。

Starting with new orders, we expect Q3 new orders to be in a range of 18,000 to 19,000 homes as we remain focused on achieving our production goals. We expect our Q3 ending community count to be flat with Q2 ending count. Though, as Rick indicated, we expect to see high single-digit growth year-over-year by the end of our fiscal year on November 30. We anticipate our Q3 deliveries to be in the range of 17,750 to 18,250, and we're raising our delivery expectations for the full year to 68,000 to 70,000 homes, which is an increase from the previous guidance of 62,000 to 66,000.

從新訂單開始，我們預計第三季度新訂單將在 18,000 至 19,000 套房屋之間，因為我們仍然專注於實現我們的生產目標。我們預計第三季度末的社區數量將與第二季度末的社區數量持平。不過，正如 Rick 指出的那樣，我們預計到 11 月 30 日的財政年度結束時，我們的銷量將實現較高的個位數同比增長。我們預計第三季度的交付量將在 17,750 輛至 18,250 輛之間，並且我們將我們全年的交付預期提高至 68,000 至 70,000 套房屋，這比之前的指導值 62,000 至 66,000 套有所增加。

Our Q3 average sales price should be consistent with Q2 as we continue to be focused on delivering affordable homes. We expect Q3 gross margin to be in the range of 23.5% to 24% as we see continued impact of our cost savings initiatives with some offset for higher land costs as we continue to purchase a greater number of finished homesites.

我們第三季度的平均銷售價格應該與第二季度保持一致，因為我們繼續專注於提供經濟適用房。我們預計第三季度的毛利率將在 23.5% 至 24% 之間，因為我們看到成本節約計劃的持續影響，並在一定程度上抵消了隨著我們繼續購買更多成品住宅而增加的土地成本。

I'll note that as is historically the case, we expect our Q4 gross margin to be sequentially higher than Q3, though it is difficult to provide more direction at this time. We expect our Q3 SG&A to be in the range of 6.7% to 6.8%. And for the combined homebuilding, joint venture, land sales and other categories, we expect to have earnings of about $25 million.

我要指出的是，正如歷史情況一樣，我們預計第四季度的毛利率將連續高於第三季度，儘管目前很難提供更多方向。我們預計第三季度的銷售及管理費用將在 6.7% 至 6.8% 之間。對於綜合住宅建設、合資企業、土地銷售和其他類別，我們預計收益約為 2500 萬美元。

We anticipate our Financial Services earnings for Q3 will be in the range of $100 million to $105 million. We expect a loss of about $10 million from our Multifamily business and a loss of approximately $20 million for the Lennar Other category. Remember that the Lennar Other estimate does not include any potential mark-to-market adjustments as our technology investments -- on our technology investments -- that adjustment will be determined by this -- stock prices at the end of our quarter.

我們預計第三季度金融服務收入將在 1 億至 1.05 億美元之間。我們預計我們的多戶型業務將損失約 1000 萬美元，Lennar 其他類別將損失約 2000 萬美元。請記住，Lennar 其他估計不包括任何潛在的按市值計價的調整，因為我們的技術投資——我們的技術投資——調整將由此決定——我們季度末的股價。

We expect that our Q3 corporate G&A to be about 1.4% to 1.5% of total revenue, and our charitable foundation contributions will be based on $1,000 per home delivered. We expect our tax rate to be about 24.7%, and the weighted average share count should be approximately 284 million shares. So when you pull all that together, these estimates should produce an EPS range of approximately $3.35 to $3.50 per share for the third quarter.

我們預計第三季度的企業管理費用將佔總收入的 1.4% 至 1.5% 左右，我們的慈善基金會捐款將基於每套交付的房屋 1,000 美元。我們預計稅率約為 24.7%，加權平均股數應約為 2.84 億股。因此，當您將所有這些綜合起來時，這些估計應產生第三季度每股收益約 3.35 美元至 3.50 美元。

And with that, let's turn it over to the operator for questions.

接下來，讓我們將其交給操作員詢問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Kenneth Zener from Seaport Research Partners.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Kenneth Zener。

As I understand the benefit of your even flow process, you're able to decapitalize your balance sheet, lifting inventory returns, which is consistent with our inventory turns equal alpha thesis. So my first question is what do you consider to be the most efficient or targeted start pace long term, given starts equal orders, relative to 2Q's 5.3 pace that you set your margin shock absorber to, in your words?

據我了解，均勻流動流程的好處是，您可以對資產負債表進行資本化，提高庫存回報，這與我們的庫存周轉率等於阿爾法理論相一致。因此，我的第一個問題是，在啟動同等訂單的情況下，您認為從長遠來看，相對於您設定利潤減震器的第二季度 5.3 的啟動速度，最有效或最有針對性的啟動速度是多少？

Let me start by saying, Ken, that it's a combination of -- even flow is a combination of going asset light, but it's also a very focused program on our -- building partner relationships, enabling consistency and predictability relative to our trade partners to enable us and them to become the most efficient versions of ourselves.

讓我首先說，肯，它是一個組合——甚至流動是輕資產的組合，但它也是一個非常專注於我們的計劃——建立合作夥伴關係，實現相對於我們的貿易夥伴的一致性和可預測性使我們和他們成為最高效的自己。

So your question is what is that start pace? And the start pace is a program that we think about putting in place as we evolve our understanding of performing and underperforming communities, their relationship to sales and closings. And a lot of this is data-driven and evolving. So there isn't a number that we can give you. It's more a concept that we are solving to and iterating to and using a lot of data feedback loops to come to numbers that make sense across a broad spectrum of 40 divisions, 40 geographies all working in sync. Jon?

所以你的問題是起始速度是多少？隨著我們對錶現良好和表現不佳的社區及其與銷售和結賬的關係的理解不斷加深，我們會考慮實施啟動速度計劃。其中很多都是數據驅動且不斷發展的。所以我們無法給你一個數字。這更像是一個概念，我們正在解決、迭代並使用大量數據反饋循環來得出在 40 個部門、40 個地區同步工作的廣泛範圍內有意義的數字。喬恩？

I would also add that it's very dependent upon community specifics and market specifics in terms of what's the right pace. So it might be a very different pace for Dallas than it is, say, for Seattle. And we very carefully measure that balance market by market so that we can match a sales pace and start pace according to market demand, land availability, labor availability.

我還要補充一點，就正確的節奏而言，這很大程度上取決於社區的具體情況和市場的具體情況。因此，達拉斯的步伐可能與西雅圖等地的步伐截然不同。我們非常仔細地衡量每個市場的平衡，以便我們可以根據市場需求、土地可用性、勞動力可用性來匹配銷售速度和啟動速度。

I appreciate that there. It sounds like there's several layers to peel. Second...

我很欣賞這一點。聽起來好像還有好幾層要剝。第二...

There sure are.

肯定有。

And by the way, let me just say, it's handled with an every-other-day meeting and not just data feedback loops, but interpersonal feedback loops that are constantly in motion. But go ahead.

順便說一句，我想說的是，它是通過每隔一天的會議來處理的，不僅僅是數據反饋循環，還有不斷變化的人際反饋循環。但繼續吧。

Right. No, no. It sounds like you have to be -- you're actually responsive to the trade in part.

正確的。不，不。聽起來你必須這樣做——你實際上對貿易做出了部分反應。

So second, considering your non-WIP inventory, owned lots fell about 20% year-over-year to 1.7 years, very impressive. And Diane, I'm very glad that you report and adjust out inventory units. So my question is, to what level can owned lots go to in your even flow framework, given Rick's 90% finished lot purchase comment, if I heard that correct. And are you willing to kind of offer a goalpost for FY '24, perhaps implied cash flows, given you've been dropping almost 0.2 years owned sequentially, it's very impressive.

其次，考慮到您的非 WIP 庫存，自有土地同比下降約 20% 至 1.7 年，非常令人印象深刻。黛安，我很高興您報告並調整了庫存單位。所以我的問題是，考慮到 Rick 90% 完成的批次購買評論（如果我沒聽錯的話），在你的均勻流量框架中，擁有的批次可以達到什麼水平。您是否願意為 24 財年提供一個目標，也許是隱含的現金流，考慮到您連續持有的時間已經減少了近 0.2 年，這非常令人印象深刻。

Sure. Thank you. And Rick, why don't you go ahead and take that question.

當然。謝謝。瑞克，你為什麼不繼續回答這個問題呢？

We have a target out for 2024, yes. All I know is, as Stuart mentioned in his comments, Jon, myself and Stuart are laser focused on our asset-light balance sheet and continuing to improve the percentage of homesites we control versus own. We've developed some incredible relationships with our land partners and with our land banks that really have facilitated us to improve on these metrics going forward.

是的，我們有 2024 年的目標。我所知道的是，正如斯圖爾特在評論中提到的那樣，喬恩、我自己和斯圖爾特都專注於我們的輕資產資產負債表，並繼續提高我們控制的住宅區與擁有的住宅區的比例。我們與土地合作夥伴和土地銀行建立了一些令人難以置信的關係，這確實有助於我們未來改進這些指標。

And I guess I might add, while we're not there yet, our goal -- as we continue to be asset lighter and have less years owned, our goal would be to have our net income equaling our cash flow. And we're not there yet, but we're working towards just replacing what we're delivering. So that's the longer-term goal.

我想我可能會補充一點，雖然我們還沒有達到這一目標，但我們的目標是——隨著我們繼續輕資產化和擁有更少的年限，我們的目標是讓我們的淨利潤等於我們的現金流。我們還沒有做到這一點，但我們正在努力替換我們正在提供的內容。這就是長期目標。

And let me just say that, look, we've set out a goal in terms of becoming an asset-light model. We report outwardly to all of you our progress along the way. But inwardly and in the background, we are working on not just relationships but structural programs to enhance the ability, to manage an asset-light model and to continue to improve it. Where we will actually end up, we're not going to lay out time frames and numbers, but you can expect that there is going to be continuous improvement in the space.

我只想說，看，我們已經制定了成為輕資產模式的目標。我們向外向大家報告我們一路走來的進展。但在內部和後台，我們不僅致力於關係，而且致力於結構性計劃，以增強能力、管理輕資產模式並繼續改進它。我們實際上將在哪裡結束，我們不會列出時間框架和數字，但您可以預期該領域將會不斷改進。

Next, we'll go to the line of Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將請來高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的 Susan Maklari。

My first question is, it sounds like the supply chain is slowly improving, and you are seeing some healing happening there. But it does feel like it's, in general, still fairly fragile. Are there lessons that you learned in the last couple of years that you can apply as the start pace does pick up from here, so that you can make sure that you're not running into some of those same challenges that you faced and therefore, maintaining those inventory turns, maintaining that cash generation that you're looking to do.

我的第一個問題是，聽起來供應鏈正在慢慢改善，而且你看到那裡正在發生一些修復。但總的來說，它確實感覺仍然相當脆弱。您是否在過去幾年中學到了一些經驗教訓，可以在起步速度從這裡開始加快時應用，以便您可以確保您不會遇到您所面臨的一些相同的挑戰，因此，維持庫存周轉率，維持您想要的現金生成能力。

Jon, why don't you take that?

喬恩，你為什麼不接受這個呢？

Susan, first, let me say that from Lennar's perspective, it really feels like the supply chain disruptions are behind us with a few minor exceptions. And perhaps that's, as I noted in my remarks, due to our size and scale, working with manufacturers that are running at an extended period of time of full capacity. But there are definitely lessons learned. As we had to scramble through the supply chain disruptions, we learned how to work differently with our manufacturers, providing them different types of forecast, more visibility into what's coming as well as how we can create local distribution for them that really cuts down the lead times. And so there's no question, there's lessons learned. And that really is reflective of my comment of the intense focus on the look forward that we hope is going to drive improved results in '24 and beyond.

Susan，首先我要說的是，從 Lennar 的角度來看，除了一些小例外之外，供應鏈中斷確實已經過去了。正如我在發言中指出的那樣，也許這是由於我們的規模和規模，與長期滿負荷運行的製造商合作。但肯定有一些教訓。當我們不得不應對供應鏈中斷時，我們學會瞭如何與製造商以不同的方式合作，為他們提供不同類型的預測，更清楚地了解即將發生的事情，以及我們如何為他們創建本地分銷，從而真正減少領先地位次。所以毫無疑問，我們已經吸取了教訓。這確實反映了我對未來的強烈關注，我們希望這將推動 24 年及以後的業績改善。

I feel that your question really is, have we altered some of the landscapes in the way that we stockpile parts and programs. I think that there are definitely things that we have seen and learned as we've gone through the challenges of the supply chain. I think that Rick and Jon together have been working with our trade partners to think about how we prevent those same kind of log jams or bottlenecks from taking place again. And that's an evolving picture. Can we point to specifics right now? Probably not as much as you'd like us to, but it is something that we're focused on.

我覺得你的問題實際上是，我們儲存零件和程序的方式是否改變了一些情況。我認為，在經歷供應鏈的挑戰時，我們肯定看到並學到了一些東西。我認為里克和喬恩一直在與我們的貿易夥伴合作，思考如何防止同樣類型的原木堵塞或瓶頸再次發生。這是一幅不斷演變的圖景。我們現在可以指出具體細節嗎？可能不像您希望的那樣，但這是我們關注的事情。

Okay. That's very helpful color. And then I guess staying on the topic of cash generation, when you think about Diane's comments to Ken's question around free cash flow conversion, it implies that you're going to have really some very impressive levels of cash. How do you think about the allocation of that capital? You bought back some stock this quarter. You paid down debt. But long term, how are you thinking about the shareholder return piece of that? And where that sort of fits relative to where we are today?

好的。這是非常有用的顏色。然後我想繼續討論現金生成的話題，當你想到黛安對肯關於自由現金流轉換的問題的評論時，這意味著你將擁有非常令人印象深刻的現金水平。您如何看待該資本的配置？您本季度回購了一些股票。你還清了債務。但從長遠來看，您如何看待股東回報部分？相對於我們今天的處境，這種情況在哪里合適？

Yes. Great question. We're very focused on that. As you can imagine, we do see increased cash flow accumulating. And Diane won't let me tell you to what extent, but it's greater than where we are right now, and that sets up opportunity. It is -- capital allocation has become a very strategic part of our thinking process. We consider regularly the relationship between debt retirement and stock buyback.

是的。很好的問題。我們非常關注這一點。正如您可以想像的那樣，我們確實看到現金流量不斷增加。黛安不會讓我告訴你到什麼程度，但它比我們現在的情況要好，這創造了機會。資本配置已成為我們思維過程中非常具有戰略意義的一部分。我們定期考慮債務清償和股票回購之間的關係。

For now, we are taking an opportunistic view of stock buyback in that we are -- we have basically been focused on a steady-state level of repurchase, but that could grow over time as we look opportunistically. And we are also looking at other strategic possibilities that we'll reveal over time. We're not asleep at the switch. We recognize that the accumulation of cash is a bit unusual within the industry. We're not uncomfortable with it, and we're being very thoughtful about it. That will evolve over time.

目前，我們對股票回購持機會主義觀點，因為我們基本上一直專注於穩定的回購水平，但隨著時間的推移，隨著我們機會主義的看法，回購水平可能會增長。我們還在研究其他戰略可能性，我們將隨著時間的推移揭示這些可能性。我們並沒有在開關旁睡覺。我們認識到現金的積累在行業內有點不尋常。我們對此並不感到不舒服，而且我們對此非常深思熟慮。這將隨著時間的推移而發展。

Next, we'll go to the line of Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI.

接下來，我們將介紹來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

My first question is going to also focus a little bit on the balance sheet side. And I guess, specifically, in the wake of the regional bank stress, we're hearing that there's this window of opportunity that's opening up to maybe acquire some attractively positioned lots or even operations from some of the smaller, less well-capitalized builders, allowing builders such as yourself with a big war chest to accelerate market share gains.

我的第一個問題也將集中在資產負債表方面。我想，具體來說，在地區銀行面臨壓力之後，我們聽說有一個機會之窗正在打開，可能會收購一些位置有吸引力的地塊，甚至從一些規模較小、資本較差的建築商手中收購業務，允許像您這樣擁有大量資金的建築商加速市場份額的增長。

And I'm curious, could you weigh in on that? Are you seeing that as well? And if you are, can you take advantage of these kinds of opportunities, these emerging opportunities while maintaining your asset-light program by utilizing your existing off-balance sheet structures? Or is it reasonable to think your owned lot count might move up a little bit before moving down again later? Or that you would need to create some other structures in order to accommodate it? If you can just give us some sense of how you're thinking about that relative to this window of opportunity that we're hearing about.

我很好奇，你能對此發表意見嗎？你也看到了嗎？如果是的話，您能否利用這些機會、這些新興機會，同時利用現有的表外結構維持輕資產計劃？或者認為您擁有的地塊數量可能會先增加一點然後再減少，這是否合理？或者您需要創建一些其他結構來容納它？如果您能讓我們了解一下您是如何看待我們所聽到的這個機會之窗的。

So Steve, these are focal points that are well right in the middle of our radar screen. I think that we're a bit early stage in some of the questions and considerations. I think that some of these questions are more applicable immediately in the land-development side of the business, where land developers who are not part of Lennar are definitely feeling some stress.

史蒂夫，這些焦點就在我們雷達屏幕的中間。我認為我們在一些問題和考慮方面還處於早期階段。我認為其中一些問題更適用於土地開發業務，不屬於 Lennar 的土地開發商肯定會感受到一些壓力。

I think that the capital accumulation that we have in cash on our books is a strategic opportunity for us to participate and make sure -- and making sure that there is even flow by some of the participants, either through partnership or other structures.

我認為，我們賬上現金的資本積累是我們參與和確保的戰略機會，並確保一些參與者甚至通過合作夥伴或其他結構進行流動。

In terms of some of the homebuilders, I think that there is still capital available for those that are operating in the production world. Whether that changes over time, we certainly have a front seat at the table in terms of being able to act where the right opportunities fit. We've done it before. We're not afraid to go forward.

就一些房屋建築商而言，我認為那些在生產領域運營的建築商仍然有可用的資本。無論這種情況隨著時間的推移而發生變化，我們在能夠在合適的機會合適的地方採取行動方面肯定處於領先地位。我們以前已經做過了。我們不畏懼前進。

Your question about off-balance sheet structures is a really important one, because many know that we've spent an awful lot of time and are spending a lot of time on creating systemic solutions for what I think of as kind of an opco-propco type configuration. There is no question that the structures that we have worked on can be constructive relative to some of the dysfunction that is in the market right now, and we're working in those directions as well.

你關於資產負債表外結構的問題非常重要，因為很多人都知道我們已經花費了大量時間，並且正在花費大量時間為我認為的opco-propco創建系統解決方案類型配置。毫無疑問，我們所研究的結構對於目前市場上的一些功能障礙來說是具有建設性的，而且我們也在朝著這些方向努力。

So I guess the best answer to your question is a broad one, and that is all of the above, it's all on the table. We are uniquely positioned to be able to participate. And all of it will be focused on building production trajectory, production consistency in growing the core business, the manufacturing, Homebuilding business. As we go forward, we have the latitude of balance sheet to be able to do that in a lot of different ways.

所以我想你的問題的最佳答案是一個廣泛的答案，這就是以上所有內容，都在桌面上。我們處於獨特的地位，能夠參與其中。所有這一切都將集中於建立生產軌跡、生產一致性，以發展核心業務、製造、住宅建築業務。隨著我們的前進，我們擁有資產負債表的自由度，能夠以多種不同的方式做到這一點。

That's great. Yes, it's going to be interesting to watch. With respect to your income statement, your -- you gave a 3Q order guide, which we appreciate. And it suggests an absorption rate, sales per community per month above what you achieved in the heyday of 2021 or post-pandemic period, it appears. And I'm curious, are absorption rates benefiting from a sort of mix shift of community types, such as maybe more communities with attached product or larger communities or something like that? And if so, if there is this kind of mix shift that's happening behind the scenes, can you give us a sense for how much further this mix shift can go in a positive direction?

那太棒了。是的，觀看起來會很有趣。關於您的損益表，您提供了第三季度訂單指南，我們對此表示讚賞。它表明吸收率、每個社區每月的銷售額似乎高於 2021 年鼎盛時期或大流行後時期所取得的成就。我很好奇，吸收率是否受益於社區類型的某種混合轉變，例如可能有更多帶有附加產品的社區或更大的社區或類似的東西？如果是這樣，如果這種混合轉變正在幕後發生，您能否讓我們了解這種混合轉變可以朝著積極的方向走多遠？

Rick, why don't you take that? And then, Jon.

瑞克，你為什麼不接受這個呢？然後，喬恩。

So I would tell you that the pace that we're looking at going forward, particularly with regards to Q3, is really a reflection of the strategy that we all have implemented with regard to starts. And as we said, we are going to run a production machine. Jon, Stuart and I have really laid out work with our regional teams and division team to develop that community-by-community start pace. We are benefiting a bit by some lower entry-level communities in a few markets. But over and above, what it really gets down to is a very disciplined, carefully managed starts program. And that's why we're comfortable in giving you the visibility that we've given.

因此，我想告訴您，我們正在考慮的前進步伐，特別是第三季度的步伐，實際上反映了我們所有人在啟動方面實施的戰略。正如我們所說，我們將運行一台生產機器。喬恩、斯圖爾特和我確實與我們的區域團隊和部門團隊一起制定了工作，以製定逐個社區的啟動節奏。我們從一些市場中的一些較低入門級社區中受益匪淺。但除此之外，真正重要的是一個非常有紀律、精心管理的啟動計劃。這就是為什麼我們願意為您提供我們所提供的可見性。

Steve, I would add, as Rick is saying, it is really paying attention closely to matching sales to our start pace so we don't build up inventory. And it's not so much going to attach product. It's going to markets that allow us to have a higher sales pace because we're at a lower price point. Many of the Texas markets are a great example of that. We're really able to go down the price curve, but we're doing that in all of our markets, and that allows us to incrementally quarter-by-quarter to increase our sales pace.

史蒂夫，我想補充一點，正如里克所說，它確實密切關注將銷售與我們的啟動速度相匹配，這樣我們就不會建立庫存。而且它並沒有那麼多附加產品。我們將進入那些能夠提高銷售速度的市場，因為我們的價格較低。德克薩斯州的許多市場就是一個很好的例子。我們確實能夠降低價格曲線，但我們在所有市場都這樣做，這使我們能夠逐季度逐步提高銷售速度。

And starts pace, got you. Appreciate it.

然後開始步伐，抓住你了。欣賞它。

And our next call comes from Truman Patterson from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個電話來自沃爾夫研究中心的杜魯門帕特森。

Wanted to follow up on Steve's question on the third quarter orders guide. That suggests orders, they typically increase sequentially when they normally decline. A few ways of looking at this, clearly, your starts pace, but underlying demand, is remaining healthy and atypically strengthening sequentially or that solid starts pace that you talked about, available spec inventory is taking market share from traditional build-to-order builders and/or private builder spec capabilities are more limited today from bank tightening. I'm just hoping -- I'm hoping you all can help us think through this a little bit further.

想跟進史蒂夫關於第三季度訂單指南的問題。這表明訂單通常會在正常下降時依次增加。從幾種角度來看，顯然，您的啟動速度，但潛在的需求，正在保持健康，並且非典型地連續增強，或者您談到的穩定的啟動速度，可用的規格庫存正在從傳統的按訂單生產製造商那里奪取市場份額和/或私人建築商的規格能力如今因銀行緊縮而更加有限。我只是希望——我希望你們能夠幫助我們進一步思考這個問題。

I'm going to let Jon answer that, but before I do, I want to correct you, Truman. I'm in Dallas. So it is still morning here. So go ahead, Jon.

我會讓喬恩回答這個問題，但在我回答之前，我想糾正你，杜魯門。我在達拉斯。所以這裡現在還是早上。所以，繼續吧，喬恩。

Truman, so if you look at our strategy, we really accelerated our starts in Q2, recognizing the market opportunity where the industry was pulling back. And given that we didn't have an inventory buildup because of our strategy, we felt there was an opportunity to be more aggressive with starts and take advantage of the lack of resale inventory as well as the lack of new sale inventory. So we feel comfortable that we'll be able to sell at an accelerated pace because we'll have the inventory when the marketplace in general isn't providing that inventory with a backdrop of really healthy demand for housing. So that gives us confidence that we'll be able to continue to accelerate our sales pace, managing that start pace.

杜魯門，如果你看看我們的戰略，我們確實在第二季度加快了啟動速度，認識到了行業回調的市場機會。鑑於我們的策略並未導致庫存增加，我們認為有機會更加積極地啟動，並利用轉售庫存和新銷售庫存的缺乏。因此，我們對能夠加快銷售速度感到放心，因為當市場總體上在住房需求真正健康的背景下無法提供庫存時，我們就會擁有庫存。因此，這讓我們有信心能夠繼續加快銷售速度，管理啟動速度。

Okay. Perfect. And then it seems like you all are getting the cost savings that you spoke about previously. But I wanted to follow up on the comment, further improvement in gross margin beyond the third quarter, depending on market conditions. But if we assume that conditions are just stable from here, would fourth quarter gross margins continue to increase just outside of normal field expense leverage on deliveries? Said another way, should you see incremental cost savings sequentially into the fourth quarter, while maybe some modest pricing benefit, on an apples-to-apples basis, flows through?

好的。完美的。然後看起來你們都得到了之前提到的成本節約。但我想跟進該評論，第三季度之後毛利率的進一步改善，具體取決於市場狀況。但如果我們假設情況從現在開始穩定，第四季度的毛利率是否會繼續增加，超出正常的交付現場費用槓桿？換句話說，您是否應該看到第四季度連續增加成本節約，同時可能會在同類基礎上帶來一些適度的定價優勢？

Yes. So we decidedly didn't give any broader thoughts on margin for our fourth quarter, recognizing that, number one, we're feeling some leveling. So we're giving you some guidance for our third quarter and some thoughts on production for year-end. I think that the market still has enough proving to do, and it's moving around enough to where we really don't want to go beyond what we've said, and that is depending on market conditions, and we're going to let them evolve.

是的。因此，我們堅決沒有對第四季度的利潤率進行任何更廣泛的思考，因為我們認識到，第一，我們感覺有些平穩。因此，我們為您提供了第三季度的一些指導以及對年底生產的一些想法。我認為市場仍然有足夠的證據要做，而且它的變化已經足夠大，我們真的不想超出我們所說的範圍，這取決於市場條件，我們會讓他們發展。

Certainly, yesterday, with the Fed Chair pausing, but maybe it's not even a pause, it's -- I think there's a lot of wait and see in terms of where interest rates go and where the market goes and talks of recession and jobs. We're going to wait and see a little bit on that. But as we sit right now, what we've said is that we see our margins continuing to improve as we go through the year. We're not going to give a boundary as to what that actually means. Let's give it some time.

當然，昨天，美聯儲主席暫停了會議，但也許這甚至不是暫停，而是——我認為，在利率走向、市場走向以及經濟衰退和就業的討論方面，人們有很多等待觀望的機會。我們將拭目以待。但就我們現在而言，我們所說的是，我們看到我們的利潤率在這一年中持續改善。我們不會給出其實際含義的界限。讓我們給它一些時間。

If I could just follow up quickly?

我是否可以快速跟進？

Sure. Sure.

當然。當然。

The cost savings, should they just build into the fourth quarter, the cost savings that you've spoken about previously?

成本節約，是否應該納入第四季度，您之前談到的成本節約？

I think, again, this is something that we're going to wait and see a little bit, see how demand patterns continue forward. But our constructive relationship with our trade partners really enables us to maximize. What we have found in this past year is that commitment to the consistency and the predictability of volume is really working to everybody's benefit. And I would say that -- again, not to get too far over our skis, as we look ahead, we continue to see consistency in the trajectory, but we will have to wait and see how they actually flow through.

我再次認為，我們將等待一段時間，看看需求模式如何繼續向前發展。但我們與貿易夥伴的建設性關係確實使我們能夠實現最大化。我們在過去的一年中發現，對數量的一致性和可預測性的承諾確實對每個人都有好處。我想說的是，不要超出我們的滑雪板太遠，當我們展望未來時，我們繼續看到軌蹟的一致性，但我們將不得不等待，看看它們實際上是如何流動的。

Perfect. I think we're seeing it in the results, and good luck in the coming quarters.

完美的。我認為我們在結果中看到了這一點，祝未來幾個季度好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

Nice quarter. I do have a question on some of the more near-term demand drivers. But Stuart, you did kind of bring up AI in your prepared remarks. And I know you guys have always been at the forefront of innovation in housing. And frankly, you don't hear AI mentioned a lot when it comes to housing. So I'm just curious if you're able to share any specifics in terms of where you see AI impacting your business going forward? And any steps the company has taken to be at the forefront of that?

不錯的季度。我確實對一些近期需求驅動因素有疑問。但是斯圖爾特，你在準備好的發言中確實提到了人工智能。我知道你們一直走在住房創新的最前沿。坦率地說，在住房方面，你不會經常聽到人工智能被提及。所以我很好奇您能否分享一下您認為人工智能對您的業務未來有何影響的具體細節？公司採取了哪些措施來走在這方面的前沿？

Yes. So Alan, I wanted to be very careful with the use of that catch phrase that seems to be incendiary relative to stock prices when people are using them. I don't want to get out over our skis, but I did want to daylight that.

是的。所以艾倫，我想非常小心地使用這個流行語，當人們使用它時，它似乎相對於股票價格具有煽動性。我不想滑雪，但我確實想把它曝光。

The machine that we described that we are engaging is really a data-driven approach to so many components of our business. And I think that we have -- we've done a tremendous amount of work. If you look at our digital marketing program, you look at our dynamic pricing model, both of them, we've talked about for many, many quarters, for years. And these are data-driven approaches to the way that we're engaging the customer acquisition componentry of our business. It's a very integrated set of systems that is dependent on feedback loops. And any time that you find a process that becomes data-driven and the data improves to the point that it's actually relevant, at some point, there are large learning models that can be helpful in enhancing productivity.

我們所描述的我們正在使用的機器實際上是一種數據驅動的方法，適用於我們業務的許多組成部分。我認為我們已經做了大量的工作。如果你看看我們的數字營銷計劃，你就會看到我們的動態定價模型，這兩個模型我們已經討論了很多很多個季度、很多年了。這些是我們與業務的客戶獲取部分互動的數據驅動方法。它是一組非常集成的系統，依賴於反饋循環。每當您發現一個流程變得由數據驅動並且數據改進到實際相關的程度時，在某些時候，就會有大型學習模型有助於提高生產力。

These are the areas where we are leaning in. I mentioned that we brought on a strategic Chief Technology Officer, Scott Spradley. And all of this is a coordinated program of taking steps at a time to improve the ingestion of data, to use the data more constructively and then to bring it to its next level where we're actually driving productivity gains within our business. We'll have more to report. In the meantime, if you find yourself in Miami, come on by. We'll show you what we mean. We have visualized it, and you can understand what we're doing.

這些是我們所關注的領域。我提到我們聘請了戰略首席技術官斯科特·斯普拉德利 (Scott Spradley)。所有這一切都是一個協調一致的計劃，一次採取措施改善數據的攝取，更有建設性地使用數據，然後將其提升到新的水平，從而真正推動業務生產力的提高。我們將會有更多的報告。與此同時，如果您發現自己在邁阿密，請過來。我們會告訴你我們的意思。我們已經將其可視化，您可以理解我們在做什麼。

Great. Looking forward to checking that out, and I appreciate the additional information there.

偉大的。期待著檢查一下，我很欣賞那裡的附加信息。

Second, on the pricing side, would love to just drill on there a little bit. So volume has continued to come in ahead of initial expectations. Your closing guide for the year now is about 10% above where it was 6 months ago. You're expecting orders to be up sequentially, which understood, is a function of your start pace but you're probably not starting homes, unless you think there's demand for them. Yet when I hear your pricing commentary, it seems a bit more muted than I would expect, frankly, as far as more stability as opposed to maybe some pricing power returning to the market.

其次，在定價方面，我很樂意在那裡鑽研一下。因此，成交量繼續超出最初的預期。您今年的收盤指導現在比 6 個月前高出約 10%。您預計訂單會依次增加，這取決於您的啟動速度，但您可能不會開始建造房屋，除非您認為有需求。然而，坦率地說，當我聽到你的定價評論時，它似乎比我想像的要溫和一些，就穩定性而言，而不是一些定價權回歸市場。

So I know you've always been very articulate about your belief in the housing shortage at affordable prices, which I think is the key distinction there. And I'm curious if your decision at this juncture to not be more aggressive raising price is a function of your views on perhaps if prices were to go up or reaccelerate that, that would kind of take demand out of the market? Or is it just more of a conservatism stance around wanting to take market share in this still kind of choppy environment right now?

所以我知道你一直非常清楚地表達了你對價格合理的住房短缺的信念，我認為這是關鍵的區別。我很好奇，您在這個時刻不更積極地提高價格的決定是否取決於您的觀點：如果價格上漲或重新加速，這會導致市場需求消失？或者這只是一種保守主義立場，希望在目前這種仍然動蕩的環境中佔據市場份額？

Listen, that's a great question. I think we'll all speak to that. Let me start by saying, we've been very thoughtful about this, and we're thoughtful about it on a day-to-day basis. We view the fact that at the affordable level, as you properly point out, there is a housing shortage. You hear it when you speak to mayors and governors across the country. You don't hear it as a national expression as much. But at the local levels, the need for workforce housing is a dominant need, and it's become a social imperative.

聽著，這是一個很好的問題。我想我們都會談到這一點。首先我要說的是，我們對此非常深思熟慮，而且我們每天都在深思熟慮。我們認為，正如您正確指出的那樣，在負擔得起的水平上，存在住房短缺。當你與全國各地的市長和州長交談時，你會聽到它。你很少聽到它作為一種民族表達方式。但在地方層面，勞動力住房的需求是主要需求，並且已成為社會的當務之急。

So thinking about where we fit into the equation, and I don't want to make too much of this, but we have focused on saying, "look, there's a void that needs to be filled. There's a needed -- an appetite." And what we're going to do is instead of driving price, we are going to drive pace and hold price. And that relationship between price and pace is something that Jon, Rick, myself, Diane, we talk about it all the time. It's the focus -- it's the whole focal point of the machine that we talk about. And at the core, we're recognizing that from the national landscape and the local landscapes, they need the volume, the supply is constrained, and therefore, we're focusing more on pace than we are on price. And we're focusing on consistency and predictability of pace so that we can rationalize costs at the same time. Rick? Jon? Whoever.

因此，思考我們在這個等式中的位置，我不想對此做太多討論，但我們重點說，“看，有一個需要填補的空白。有一個需要的——一個胃口。 ”我們要做的不是推動價格，而是加快步伐並保持價格。價格和節奏之間的關係是喬恩、里克、我自己、黛安我們一直在談論的話題。這是焦點——這是我們談論的機器的整個焦點。從本質上講，我們認識到，從國家景觀和當地景觀來看，他們需要數量，但供應受到限制，因此，我們更關注速度而不是價格。我們專注於節奏的一致性和可預測性，以便我們能夠同時合理化成本。瑞克？喬恩？誰。

Stuart, I think you answered it well. It's really that consistency and cadence between starts and the sales that really keeps our machine going, and it makes us incredibly efficient. We're very focused on keeping our products affordable. In many cases, that's working hand in hand with our mortgage company and our mortgage in determining what that mortgage payment needs to be in order for us to transact. So it's a very careful and methodical approach. And if prices move, they move, but we're going to start and deliver the number of homes that we've targeted on a community-by-community basis.

斯圖爾特，我認為你回答得很好。事實上，正是啟動和銷售之間的一致性和節奏真正讓我們的機器保持運轉，並使我們的效率令人難以置信。我們非常注重保持我們的產品價格實惠。在許多情況下，這與我們的抵押貸款公司和我們的抵押貸款攜手合作，確定我們進行交易所需的抵押貸款付款額。所以這是一個非常謹慎和有條理的方法。如果價格變動，價格就會變動，但我們將根據每個社區的具體情況啟動並交付我們目標數量的房屋。

I would only add that if you think about our core strategy of being a production-first builder, we have consciously chosen not to limit production and drive pricing to maximize margins. We think we are a better company by being production first and managing sales pace to start pace that drives better returns -- better cash flow that drives better returns. And that consistency that we all have spoken about really makes us a much more solid company. So it's a strategic decision that really is reflective in the way that you see our pricing.

我只想補充一點，如果你考慮一下我們成為生產第一的建築商的核心戰略，我們有意識地選擇不限制生產並推動定價以實現利潤最大化。我們認為，我們是一家更好的公司，通過將生產放在第一位並管理銷售節奏來啟動推動更好回報的步伐——更好的現金流推動更好的回報。我們都談到的這種一致性確實使我們成為一家更加堅實的公司。因此，這是一項戰略決策，真正反映了您對我們定價的看法。

Why don't we go ahead and take one more question.

我們為什麼不再問一個問題呢？

Absolutely. Our final question comes from Mike Rehaut from JPMorgan.

絕對地。我們的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的邁克·雷豪特。

Appreciate you getting me in before the end here. I wanted to just circle back, if I could, on the idea around 3Q orders. I think it's an important distinction in terms of your approach and maybe how that differentiates versus the market. And really, what I'm trying to get at is, you're talking about obviously the orders being driven by your own starts pace and strategy. I'm curious if in effect -- because we've also heard in the last month, maybe 1.5 months of an expectation by a lot of builders to return to normal seasonality. And certainly, historically, your own sales pace has been down about 10% sequentially 3Q versus 2Q.

感謝你在結束前讓我進來。如果可以的話，我想回顧一下有關第三季度訂單的想法。我認為這是您的方法的一個重要區別，也許也是您與市場的區別所在。實際上，我想要表達的是，您顯然在談論由您自己的啟動速度和策略驅動的訂單。我很好奇這是否有效——因為我們在上個月也聽說，許多建築商預計將在 1.5 個月內恢復正常的季節性。當然，從歷史上看，您自己的銷售速度在第三季度比第二季度連續下降了約 10%。

So do you feel that at this point in the game -- and you kind of highlighted the first few weeks of June, do you feel that this approach that you're taking is in fact market -- resulting in market share gains? In other words, that what you've seen over the last few weeks, maybe a month, we've heard a little bit of sequential softening month-to-month, which is typical. So I'm just trying to get a sense of when you talk about your 3Q outlook and your approach to starts, if this is, in fact, kind of an active kind of gain of share relative to what you're seeing across the broader marketplace?

那麼，您是否認為在遊戲的這個階段——您強調了六月的前幾週，您是否認為您所採取的這種方法實際上是市場——導致了市場份額的增長？換句話說，您在過去幾週（也許一個月）中看到的情況是，我們聽到了逐月的連續疲軟，這是典型的。因此，我只是想了解一下，當您談論第三季度前景和啟動方法時，相對於您在更廣泛的領域看到的情況，這實際上是否是一種積極的份額增益市場？

Yes. So I think Jon laid this out a few minutes ago. And what we saw was that the appetite of the market favored ready-to-go inventory, shorter cycle closings, and that many were actually pulling back in that regard. And there are really multiple ways to think about this.

是的。所以我認為喬恩在幾分鐘前就已經闡述了這一點。我們看到的是，市場的胃口有利於現成的庫存、較短的周期關閉，而許多人實際上在這方面有所回撤。確實有多種方式來思考這個問題。

Number one, the existing home market, which is generally a supplier of short-cycle ready-to-go inventory is somewhat constrained in that regard. Number two, a number of the builders in the context of the sharp increase in interest rates pulled back. The banking questions have perhaps limited part of the productive machine of the new-home market to actually build inventory. We felt that there was an opportunity for us to fill a void.

第一，現有的國內市場通常是短週期現成庫存的供應商，在這方面受到一定限制。第二，一些建築商在利率大幅上漲的背景下紛紛撤資。銀行業問題可能限制了新房市場生產機器實際建立庫存的部分能力。我們覺得我們有機會填補空白。

So I guess the answer to your question, Mike, is I think that we do see an opportunity to pick up some of the market share, where the market is not positioned to have that ready-to-go production or inventory in place available to the market. And we'll have to wait and see in the third quarter if we're right or not. But I think we feel pretty confident that we know where the market is, we know where the strength is, and that's what we've solved for.

因此，邁克，我想你的問題的答案是，我認為我們確實看到了獲得一些市場份額的機會，而市場不具備現成的生產或庫存可供使用。市場。我們必須在第三季度拭目以待，看看我們的預測是否正確。但我認為我們非常有信心，我們知道市場在哪裡，我們知道優勢在哪裡，這就是我們解決的問題。

I would only add one point. Stuart, I think you covered it well. And that is remember, Mike, we have a lever that the resale market doesn't have. So it starts with the fact that there's record-low inventory in resale, as you know. But we can buy down mortgage rates where the resale market can't. So if we need to accelerate our sales pace when the market is giving us, we have that lever that we can pull, that's at our disposal.

我只想補充一點。斯圖爾特，我認為你講得很好。邁克，請記住，我們擁有轉售市場所沒有的槓桿。正如您所知，首先是轉售庫存創歷史新低。但我們可以降低轉售市場無法做到的抵押貸款利率。因此，如果我們需要在市場允許的情況下加快銷售速度，我們就有可以利用的槓桿。

Right. No, no, that all makes sense. I appreciate that. I guess, secondly, and I apologize if I missed this from earlier, but I was just trying to -- I would love to get a sense of current incentives and discounts as a percent of sales. You kind of highlighted over again or a few times during this call, the mortgage rate buydowns. But just holistically, when you look at either buydowns or other types of incentives or discounts, where are you today versus a quarter ago?

正確的。不不不，這一​​切都有道理。我很感激。其次，我想，如果我之前錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但我只是想——我很想了解當前的激勵措施和折扣佔銷售額的百分比。在這次電話會議中，您再次或多次強調了抵押貸款利率下調。但從整體上看，當你考慮購買或其他類型的激勵或折扣時，你今天與一個季度前相比處於什麼位置？

And if -- how you're kind of expecting perhaps that trend, especially if ASPs are kind of steady. And you've kind of alluded to in your opening remarks perhaps some consumers having stretched finances, and perhaps the rate buydowns are part of a solve there. But just trying to get a sense maybe how incentives and discounts on a total basis have trended so far this year and how you're thinking about it going forward?

如果——您對這種趨勢有何期待，特別是如果平均售價保持穩定的話。您在開場白中提到，也許一些消費者的財務狀況緊張，也許利率下調是解決問題的一部分。但只是想了解一下今年迄今為止激勵和折扣總體趨勢如何，以及您如何考慮未來的發展？

Okay. So Diane, why don't you go ahead and give some color on that. And we'll fill in.

好的。所以黛安，你為什麼不繼續對此進行一些說明呢？我們將填寫。

Yes, Mike. So if you look at incentives and what we delivered in the first quarter, it was 10.2%, and that went down to 8.4%. So I think you're seeing a nice sequential decline. And all of that is just tied to being able to make homes affordable for people, so it all ties into the narrative that Stuart and Jon and Rick just went through.

是的，邁克。因此，如果你看看激勵措施以及我們在第一季度交付的內容，就會發現，該比例為 10.2%，而後下降至 8.4%。所以我認為你會看到連續下降。所有這一切都與能夠讓人們買得起房子有關，所以這一切都與斯圖爾特、喬恩和里克剛剛經歷的故事有關。

As I think about -- as we think about the rest of the year, that -- again, that's kind of our lever, right? It's adjusting prices and it's using incentives to make those homes affordable. So we'll see how that goes. We haven't given guidance, but we definitely saw a downward trend from Q1 to Q2.

當我想到——當我們想到今年剩下的時間時——這也是我們的槓桿，對吧？它正在調整價格並利用激勵措施使這些房屋變得負擔得起。所以我們會看看情況如何。我們沒有給出指導，但我們確實看到從第一季度到第二季度呈下降趨勢。

All right. Why don't we go ahead and leave it there. Mike, thank you for your questions. And I want to thank everybody for joining us. We're pretty enthusiastic about how our business is navigating sometimes turbulent waters. And we look forward to reporting in our third quarter how things have continued and progressed. Thank you for joining.

好的。我們為什麼不繼續把它留在那裡呢？邁克，謝謝你的提問。我要感謝大家加入我們。我們對我們的業務如何在有時洶湧的水域中航行充滿熱情。我們期待在第三季度報告事情的繼續和進展。感謝您的加入。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect your line, and please enjoy the rest of your day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開線路，並享受接下來的一天。