Lennar Corp (LEN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Lennar's Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

歡迎參加 Lennar 第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，您可以此時斷開連接。

I will now turn the call over to David Collins for the reading of the forward-looking statement.

現在我將把電話轉給大衛‧柯林斯，讓他宣讀前瞻性聲明。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Today's conference call may include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding Lennar's business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, strategies and prospects. Forward-looking statements represent only on Lennar's estimates on the date of this conference call and are not intended to give any assurance as to actual future results.

謝謝大家，大家早安。今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Lennar 業務、財務狀況、營運績效、現金流、策略和前景的陳述。前瞻性陳述僅代表 Lennar 在本次電話會議之日的估計，並非旨在對未來的實際結果提供任何保證。

Because forward-looking statements relate to matters that have not yet occurred, these statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties.

由於前瞻性陳述涉及尚未發生的事項，因此這些陳述本質上會受到風險和不確定性的影響。

Many factors could affect future results and may cause Lennar's actual activities or results to differ materially from the activities and results anticipated in forward-looking statements. These factors include those described in our earnings release and our SEC filings, including those under the caption of Risk Factors contained in Lennar's annual report on Form 10-K most recently filed with the SEC. Please note that Lennar assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

許多因素可能影響未來的結果，並可能導致 Lennar 的實際活動或結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的活動和結果有重大差異。這些因素包括我們的收益發布和 SEC 文件中描述的因素，包括 Lennar 最近向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格年度報告中風險因素標題下的因素。請注意，Lennar 不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

I would now like to introduce your host, Mr. Stuart Miller, Executive Chairman. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下你們的主持人，執行主席史都華·米勒先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Very good. Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us this morning. Pardon me, I've got a bit of a cold, so you'll hear that in my voice, might cough a little. So today, I'm in Miami together with Jon Jaffe, our Co-CEO and President; Diane Bessette, our Chief Financial Officer; David Collins, who you just heard from, our Controller and Vice President; and Bruce Gross, our CEO of Lennar Financial Services. We're all here in Miami together.

非常好。謝謝大家，早安，謝謝您今天早上加入我們。抱歉，我有點感冒，所以你會從我的聲音中聽到，可能會咳嗽一點。今天，我與我們的聯合執行長兼總裁 Jon Jaffe 一起在邁阿密； Diane Bessette，我們的財務長；大衛‧柯林斯 (David Collins)，您剛收到了我們的財務長兼副總裁的來信；以及 Lennar Financial Services 執行長 Bruce Gross。我們都在邁阿密。

As usual, I'm going to give a macro and strategic overview of the company and our performance. After my introductory remarks, Jon is going to give some color on overall market conditions. He's going to comment on our land position, and then he's going to give an operational overview, updating supply chain, cycle time and construction costs. And as usual, Diane is going to give detailed financial highlights along with some limited guidance for the fourth quarter and year-end 2023 to assist in forward thinking and modeling. (Operator Instructions)

像往常一樣，我將對公司及其業績進行宏觀和策略概述。在我的介紹性發言之後，喬恩將對整體市場狀況進行一些闡述。他將對我們的土地位置發表評論，然後他將提供營運概述、更新供應鏈、週期時間和建築成本。與往常一樣，Diane 將提供詳細的財務亮點以及第四季度和 2023 年底的一些有限指導，以協助前瞻性思維和建模。 （操作員說明）

Now as you all know, since our last earnings call, Rick Beckwitt retired, effective the end of the third quarter. Rick began his 17 years with Lennar at the very beginning of the Great Recession, as it's called, in 2006. He rejoined an industry that was operating at the top of this game and was prepared to reach for even higher heights. Rick found himself, however, in an industry that was caught in a changing and devolving economic environment that altered expectations and aspirations. Rick jumped in at Lennar and treated problems at his own side-by-side with the rest of the team. And over the next years, he worked as part of the team fixing what was broken and righting what was upside down. He became fast partners with me and with Jon Jaffe, and together, we navigated difficult times. We positioned Lennar for future success and began anew to reach for new heights, and we achieved the extraordinary.

眾所周知，自從我們上次的財報電話會議以來，里克·貝克威特 (Rick Beckwitt) 退休了，從第三季末開始生效。 Rick 在 Lennar 的 17 年工作生涯始於 2006 年經濟大衰退剛開始時。他重新加入了一個處於行業頂端的行業，並準備達到更高的高度。然而，里克發現自己所在的行業陷入了不斷變化和不斷變化的經濟環境中，改變了期望和願望。 Rick 加入 Lennar 的行列，與團隊其他成員一起解決自己的問題。在接下來的幾年裡，他作為團隊的一員，致力於修復損壞的部分並糾正顛倒的部分。他與我和喬恩·賈菲成為了快速的合作夥伴，我們一起度過了困難時期。我們為 Lennar 未來的成功做好了準備，並重新開始達到新的高度，我們取得了非凡的成就。

All of us at Lennar appreciate Rick's service and partnership. We all benefited from his experience in the industry, his natural intellect and the camaraderie that we all share. We all reach that inevitable moment of retirement, but it is uncommon for that moment to coincide with the timing where the company is well prepared as well.

Lennar 的所有人都感謝 Rick 的服務和合作關係。我們都受益於他的行業經驗、天生的智慧以及我們共同的友誼。我們都會不可避免地面臨退休的時刻，但在這個時刻與公司也做好充分準備的時間相一致的情況並不常見。

This is that rare moment. As a team of 3, Rick, Jon and I worked together and as partners with the rest of Lennar operating leaders to list and position Lennar for leadership in the industry. Lennar today is both organized and positioned financially to move forward with a smaller organization structure and more efficient overhead. Rick completed 17 years of service and retired as co-CEO and President.

這是那個難得的時刻。作為一個 3 人團隊，Rick、Jon 和我作為合作夥伴與 Lennar 的其他營運領導者一起工作，將 Lennar 列為行業領導者。如今，Lennar 的組織結構和財務定位都在以較小的組織結構和更有效率的管理費用向前發展。 Rick 已完成 17 年的服務，並以聯合執行長兼總裁的身份退休。

Rick, I know you're out there. I know you're on the call and listening because I know you just can't help yourself. I hope you're preparing to sharpen your golf game or building some wood cabinet in Maine. Rest assured that all is well and stable, and we're executing as expected here at Lennar.

瑞克，我知道你在外面。我知道你正在打電話並傾聽，因為我知道你就是情不自禁。我希望您準備好在緬因州提高您的高爾夫球水平或建造一些木櫃。請放心，一切都很好且穩定，我們在 Lennar 正在按預期執行。

So now let me turn to the business at hand and talk about the business of Lennar and how we are performing, as well as how we are positioned for our future. So let me begin by saying that we're pleased to report that the Lennar team has -- has remained focused on balancing and maintaining production and sales pace, reducing cycle time and increasing cash flow, improving inventory turns and driving strong bottom line. And we have again produced a strong and consistent result for the quarter.

現在讓我轉向當前的業務，談談 Lennar 的業務以及我們的表現以及我們對未來的定位。首先我要說的是，我們很高興地報告，Lennar 團隊一直致力於平衡和維持生產和銷售節奏、縮短週期時間並增加現金流、改善庫存週轉並推動強勁的利潤。我們再次在本季取得了強勁且一致的業績。

Our third quarter results reflect consistent adherence to the core operating strategy that we have detailed in prior quarters against the backdrop of an evolving macroeconomic environment and a constructively configured housing landscape.

我們第三季的業績反映了我們在不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境和建設性配置的住房格局背景下對前幾季詳細說明的核心營運策略的一貫堅持。

As I noted in our press release, the macroeconomic environment is constructive, relative to the housing -- homebuilding market. And it has certainly stabilized relative to the aggressive interest rate climb that defined the environment last year. It seems that we have entered a phase of more measured adjustments in order to curtail inflation while the Fed shrinks its balance sheet by approximately $100 billion per month and engages other mechanisms to reduce capital in the market.

正如我在新聞稿中指出的那樣，相對於房屋建築市場而言，宏觀經濟環境是建設性的。相對於去年界定環境的大幅利率攀升，它肯定已經穩定下來。我們似乎已經進入了一個更謹慎的調整階段，以抑制通膨，而聯準會每月將資產負債表縮減約 1000 億美元，並採用其他機制來減少市場資本。

Over these time -- over time, these steps will hopefully bring inflation to desired levels. While persistent inflation remains in the system, aggressive rate hikes have given way to moderated and measured rate movements, allowing the market to adjust in a more orderly fashion. And while the Fed is working to reduce overall capital levels, the elimination of sharp churns and aggressive moves is generally constructive to consumers finding access to enough capital for their necessities and housing is a necessity.

隨著時間的推移，這些措施預計將通膨率提升至理想水準。儘管系統中仍存在持續的通膨，但激進的升息已被溫和且有節制的利率變動所取代，從而使市場能夠以更有序的方式進行調整。儘管聯準會正在努力降低整體資本水平，但消除急劇的流失和激進的舉措通常對消費者獲得足夠的資本來滿足他們的必需品和住房是必要的。

Against that backdrop, the current housing market is generally defined by a very short supply of affordable products and strong demand for affordable products. The consumers have now adjusted to an excessive "higher for longer" interest rates and are willing to purchase or rent what they can afford. The consumer is employed and is confident they will remain employed and likely with a higher wage. Higher rates, with need driving demand and housing and short supply, is the new normal and the consumer understands that the cost of housing will likely continue to be higher.

在此背景下，目前的房屋市場普遍表現為平價產品供應非常短缺，而平價產品需求強勁。消費者現在已經適應了過高的「長期較高」利率，並願意購買或租賃他們能負擔得起的東西。消費者有工作，並且有信心繼續就業，並可能獲得更高的工資。隨著需求驅動需求和住房供應短缺，利率上升已成為新常態，消費者知道住房成本可能會繼續走高。

Generally speaking, strong demand for housing has returned within the limits of affordability. The market has attracted consumers by adjusting prices, increasing incentives, including rate buydowns and driving down production costs in order to enable consumers to afford needed shelters -- needed shelter, and customers have responded. The net price of homes has moderated, and the net average sales prices has stabilized. We have seen in our numbers that net average sales prices on home closings have dropped approximately 10% or 11% from the peak of approximately $500,000 in 2022 to approximately $448,000 now, and we expect that pricing to remain fairly constant.

總體而言，強勁的住房需求已在可負擔範圍內回歸。市場透過調整價格、增加激勵措施（包括降價購買和降低生產成本）來吸引消費者，以使消費者能夠負擔得起所需的住所——需要的住所，並且客戶做出了回應。房屋淨價放緩，淨平均銷售價格趨於穩定。我們在數據中看到，房屋成交的平均淨銷售價格已從 2022 年約 50 萬美元的峰值下降約 10% 或 11%，降至目前的約 448,000 美元，我們預計價格將保持相當穩定。

Concurrently, Multifamily rental rates have also moderated. Two years of 500,000 apartment starts per year are now being delivered and creating supply increases, and in some geographies, excess supply, which are moderating rental rates. While we expect a sharp drop off in new starts this year, we don't expect that rents will drop significantly, but they are not likely to grow very much either in the foreseeable future.

同時，多戶住宅的租金率也放緩。兩年內，每年將交付 50 萬套公寓，導致供應增加，而在某些地區，供應過剩，導致租金率下降。雖然我們預計今年新開工量將大幅下降，但我們預計租金不會大幅下降，但在可預見的未來也不太可能大幅增加。

Rentals and rent equivalents make up a significant part of the CPI calculation. Overall, we believe that the housing market has leveled and while net average sales prices are lower, cancellations have been normalizing and margins have stabilized as cost reductions in value engineering provide an offset to the price reductions. Additionally, we believe that the new supply of homes will be limited as developed land is scarce and increasingly more expensive to develop. This will continue to limit available inventory and maintain supply/demand imbalance.

租金和租金等價物構成 CPI 計算的重要組成部分。總體而言，我們認為房地產市場已經趨於平穩，雖然淨平均銷售價格較低，但取消訂單已經正常化，而且利潤率已經穩定，因為價值工程成本的降低抵消了價格下降的影響。此外，我們認為，由於已開發土地稀缺且開發成本越來越高，新房屋供應將受到限制。這將繼續限制可用庫存並維持供需不平衡。

Bottom line, the economy is constructive. Housing supply is short and limited, demand returned -- returned to affordable offerings, and builders who will need to continue to produce more homes to fill the void. So against that backdrop, the Lennar team has remained focused on our core strategies that are driving our company forward. First, we've continued to remain production and volume focused, with a primary focus on driving production efficiency, driving higher inventory turn, driving higher cash flow and strong margins and while focusing on return on assets.

底線是，經濟是建設性的。住房供應短缺且有限，需求恢復——回到負擔得起的產品，而建築商將需要繼續生產更多房屋來填補空白。因此，在此背景下，Lennar 團隊始終專注於推動公司前進的核心策略。首先，我們繼續保持以產量和銷售為重點，主要專注於提高生產效率、提高庫存週轉率、提高現金流和強勁的利潤率，同時注重資產回報率。

At the same time, we maintain a carefully matched sales base using our digital marketing and dynamic pricing machine to keep production pace, and sales pace closely matched.

同時，我們利用數位行銷和動態定價機維持精心匹配的銷售基礎，以保持生產節奏和銷售節奏緊密匹配。

In our third quarter, we started 18,675 homes, while we sold 19,666 ones, and we delivered 18,559 homes, or an 8% increase over last year. Our starts pace for the quarter was 4.9 homes per community per month, while our sales pace was 5.2 homes per community per month. While these numbers don't fit perfectly together, they are getting closer every quarter, and we're operating our platform more tightly than ever and by careful design.

第三季度，我們開工了 18,675 套房屋，銷售了 19,666 套房屋，交付了 18,559 套房屋，比去年增加了 8%。本季我們的開工速度為每個社區每月 4.9 套房屋，而我們的銷售速度為每個社區每月 5.2 套房屋。雖然這些數字並不完全吻合，但它們每個季度都在變得越來越接近，而且我們透過精心設計，比以往任何時候都更緊密地經營我們的平台。

Our digital marketing and dynamic pricing machine helps drive our net sales pace to exceed our available starts, enabling us to backfill cancellations, which ran last quarter at a 3.3% rate. And we maintained a very controlled inventory level as a result, and that is of just over 1 home per community. This has driven the confidence to continue a consistent start base that enables operating efficiency. With this focus, we've continued to sell homes at current market prices, improving margin as conditions improve, and reducing margins when necessary.

我們的數位行銷和動態定價機有助於推動我們的淨銷售速度超過可用的開工率，使我們能夠彌補上季取消訂單的比例為 3.3%。因此，我們保持了非常受控的庫存水平，即每個社區僅擁有 1 套以上的庫存。這增強了我們繼續保持一致的起始基礎以提高營運效率的信心。以此為重點，我們繼續以當前市場價格出售房屋，隨著情況改善提高利潤率，並在必要時降低利潤率。

Accordingly, our margins bottomed in the first quarter of this year at 21.2%. And as the market has improved, margins have recovered to now 24.4% this quarter, and we're expecting flat to modest improvement next quarter with a range of 24.4% to 24.6%. Of course, through all phases of the market cycle, we are consistently producing very strong cash flow. These elements of execution are working extremely well and improving. And accordingly, we have gained confidence in our ability to now guide to increase volumes for the year of almost 71,000 to almost 72,000 deliveries with strong margins and strong cash flow.

因此，我們的利潤率在今年第一季觸底至 21.2%。隨著市場的改善，本季的利潤率已恢復至 24.4%，我們預計下季利潤率將持平或適度改善，範圍為 24.4% 至 24.6%。當然，在市場週期的所有階段，我們始終如一地產生非常強勁的現金流。這些執行要素運作得非常好並且正在不斷改進。因此，我們對現在能夠以強勁的利潤率和強勁的現金流引導今年交付量從近 71,000 輛增加到近 72,000 輛的能力充滿信心。

Next strategy, we have continued to work with our trade partners to maintain our now properly configured cost structure relative to the current sale price environment, while we continue to drive cycle time to pre-supply chain crisis levels.

下一步策略是，我們繼續與貿易夥伴合作，維持我們目前相對於當前銷售價格環境正確配置的成本結構，同時繼續將週期時間推向供應鏈危機前的水平。

Jon will cover these production components in more detail shortly, but Jon and our purchasing team have been laser-focused across the platform. We were quick to reduce costs as the market corrected and we have held costs down as the market has stabilized, and considerable success in this area is reflected in our margin improvement and as well as in the number of homes that were construction-ready and available for delivery this quarter.

Jon 很快就會更詳細地介紹這些生產組件，但 Jon 和我們的採購團隊一直專注於整個平台。隨著市場的調整，我們迅速降低了成本，隨著市場的穩定，我們控制了成本，這一領域的巨大成功反映在我們的利潤率提高以及已準備好施工和可用的房屋數量上本季度交付。

Our third strategy has been to sharpen our attention on land and land acquisitions, as well as land and land bank strategies. While Jon will give additional detail on land, this has been a specific concentrated focus across the platform in every division to refine our approach to reducing land exposure and continuing to become increasingly asset-light.

我們的第三個策略是加強對土地和土地收購以及土地和土地儲備策略的關注。雖然喬恩將提供有關土地的更多詳細信息，但這一直是整個平台每個部門的具體重點，以完善我們減少土地風險並繼續變得越來越輕資產的方法。

We've made some significant progress in reducing land held on balance sheet, with now just 1.5 years owned and 73% of our land control. We have made exceptional progress in creating a materially more efficient manufacturing platform. Accordingly, our land programs and partners have become strategic partners in maintaining volume and increasing market share while helping to rationalize costs.

我們在減少資產負債表上持有的土地方面取得了一些重大進展，現在擁有的土地僅 1.5 年，我們的土地控制率為 73%。我們在創造物質上更有效率的製造平台方面取得了非凡的進展。因此，我們的土地計劃和合作夥伴已成為保持產量和增加市場份額的策略合作夥伴，同時幫助合理化成本。

Our fourth core focus and strategy has been to manage our operating costs or our SG&A. So that even at lower gross margins, we will continue to drive a strong net margin. While we've been driving our SG&A down over the past years quarter-by-quarter to new record lows and many of those changes, although not all, are hardwired into permanent efficiencies in operations, there are some components that have grown, as we have seen this quarter, and we have had to address interest rate movements as we have addressed interest rate movements and sometimes more difficult market conditions. Examples are realtor costs and marketing expenses, which have had to expand as customer acquisition and engagement have become sometimes more challenging. Both of these areas saw increases in our third quarter numbers.

我們的第四個核心重點和策略是管理我們的營運成本或銷售管理費用。因此，即使毛利率較低，我們仍將繼續推動強勁的淨利率。雖然過去幾年我們的銷售管理及行政費用逐季下降至歷史新低，其中許多變化（儘管不是全部）都與營運中的永久性效率息息相關，但有一些組成部分已經增長，因為我們正如本季度所參見，我們必須解決利率變動問題，就像我們處理利率變動問題以及有時更困難的市場條件一樣。例如房地產經紀人成本和行銷費用，隨著客戶獲取和參與有時變得更具挑戰性，這些費用不得不增加。這兩個領域的數量都在第三季增加。

Nevertheless, we were able to achieve a very respectable 7% SG&A this quarter, which is higher than last quarter's 6.7%, but it is -- but it did, nevertheless, result in a strong net margin of 17.4%, which is up from 15.8% last quarter. We've continued to streamline our business even as we grow so that we can accomplish more with less. And as an example, many of that, it will need to replace Rick, as he is now retired. And the answer simply is no. Because we build systems that are now in place that enable us to operate in ways today that would not have worked in past years.

儘管如此，我們本季的 SG&A 達到了非常可觀的 7%，高於上一季的 6.7%，但它確實帶來了 17.4% 的強勁淨利潤率，高於上一季的 6.7%。上季度增長15.8%。即使我們不斷發展，我們仍繼續精簡我們的業務，以便我們能夠用更少的資源完成更多的事情。舉個例子，其中很多都需要取代瑞克，因為他現在已經退休了。答案是否定的。因為我們建造的系統現在已到位，使我們能夠以過去幾年行不通的方式進行運作。

Our fifth playbook strategy was to maintain tight inventory controls in order to control our asset base. The Lennar machine of digital marketing, sales management and dynamic pricing has materially improved inventory control by enabling a focus on selling loans and inventory, focusing maximum attention on underperforming communities and bringing attention to products and plans that are not selling as expected. Clearing the homes that are complete and closable rather than selling homes that are many quarters in the future is exactly what drives cash flow, higher inventory turns and higher returns on assets, and we're focused on this part of the business every day.

我們的第五個策略是保持嚴格的庫存控制，以控制我們的資產基礎。 Lennar 的數位行銷、銷售管理和動態定價機器透過專注於銷售貸款和庫存、最大限度地關注表現不佳的社區以及關注未按預期銷售的產品和計劃，顯著改善了庫存控制。清理完整且可關閉的房屋，而不是出售未來多個季度的房屋，正是推動現金流、更高庫存週轉率和更高資產回報率的原因，我們每天都專注於這部分業務。

Both land and home inventory control is the mission control of our overall business. And in our third quarter numbers, you can see continuing quarterly improvement in our now 11.5% debt to total capitalization, down from 13.3% last quarter and down from 15% last year at this time. Additionally, with our $3.9 billion cash position, our net debt to total capital is actually negative. And our balance sheet is being carefully managed to provide extraordinary liquidity and flexibility.

土地和房屋庫存控制是我們整體業務的任務控制。在我們第三季的數據中，您可以看到我們的債務佔總資本的比例目前為 11.5%，低於上季的 13.3%，也低於去年同期的 15%。此外，由於我們擁有 39 億美元的現金頭寸，我們的淨債務與總資本之比實際上為負。我們的資產負債表經過精心管理，以提供非凡的流動性和靈活性。

These elements of the business continues to be managed through an every other day management meeting where numbers are reviewed at the regional individual levels by the entire management team. Sales starts and closings are maintained and controlled, balanced (inaudible) with the end result of volume with defined expectations.

這些業務要素繼續透過每隔一天舉行的管理會議進行管理，整個管理團隊在區域個人層面上審查數字。銷售開始和結束均得到維持和控制，並與具有明確預期的最終銷售結果保持平衡（聽不清楚）。

The sixth playbook strategy was to continue to focus on cash flow and bottom line in order to protect and enhance our already extraordinary balance sheet. If we reflect on our third quarter results, not only accomplished -- not only did we accomplish excellent cash flow and bottom line results -- or bottom line results earning over $1.1 billion or $3.87 per share, but we used cash to repurchase $366 million of stock, and we also repaid approximately $475 million of senior debt. We expect to continue to generate considerable earnings and cash flow, and accordingly, we'll continue to retire debt and purchase stock opportunistically.

第六個策略是繼續關注現金流和利潤，以保護和增強我們本已非凡的資產負債表。如果我們反思我們第三季的業績，我們不僅實現了——不僅實現了出色的現金流和利潤——或者說利潤超過11 億美元或每股3.87 美元，而且我們用現金回購了3.66 億美元的股票股票，我們也償還了約 4.75 億美元的優先債務。我們預計將繼續產生可觀的收益和現金流，因此，我們將繼續償還債務並機會主義地購買股票。

Let me say in conclusion that our third quarter 2023 has been another excellent quarter for Lennar. We saw overall market conditions remain constructive for our industry, as aggressive interest rate moves subsided and the new normal defined expectations. Additionally, the housing market has continued to be defined by housing shortage and generally strong demand that is prepared -- that is prepared to transact.

最後我想說的是，2023 年第三季對於 Lennar 來說又是一個出色的季度。我們看到，隨著激進的利率變動消退以及新常態明確的預期，整體市場狀況對我們的產業仍然具有建設性。此外，住房市場仍然由住房短缺和準備交易的普遍強勁需求所決定。

Accordingly, we executed on our core strategies against the economic and industry backdrop. Given consistent execution, we are extremely well positioned for continued success as strong demand for affordable offerings continues to see the current short supply.

因此，我們在經濟和產業背景下執行了我們的核心策略。鑑於持續的執行力，我們處於持續成功的有利位置，因為對價格實惠的產品的強勁需求仍然導致當前的供應短缺。

We expect to finish out this year strong, and we also expect to enter 2024 with a 10% initial growth expectation, and we're very well positioned to achieve that level. We engaged the changing times of the past year with a consistent strategy that enables certainty of execution throughout our company.

我們預計今年將實現強勁成長，我們也預計進入 2024 年時初始成長預期為 10%，而且我們完全有能力實現這一水平。我們以一致的策略來應對過去一年不斷變化的時代，使整個公司的執行具有確定性。

Our strategy is well known and understood throughout our division offices, and we have a simple and consistent model of execution. We focus on maintaining volume, while we price our homes to drive match pace. We work with our trade base to manage cost and efficiency and adjust our product offering to meet the market. We manage both lands and our production inventories to drive efficiency, cash flow and returns on our asset base. We focus on land-light model in order to drive balance sheet efficiency. Finally, we fortify our balance sheet to have liquidity for strength and flexibility.

我們的策略在我們的部門辦公室中眾所周知並被理解，並且我們有一個簡單且一致的執行模型。我們專注於維持銷量，同時對房屋進行定價以推動比賽節奏。我們與我們的貿易基地合作來管理成本和效率，並調整我們的產品以滿足市場需求。我們管理土地和生產庫存，以提高資產基礎的效率、現金流量和回報。我們專注於土地光模型以提高資產負債表效率。最後，我們強化資產負債表，以擁有流動性來增強實力和靈活性。

Knowing what to do in executing for plan has driven this quarter's success and ensures consistent success for the foreseeable future. As we look ahead to a successful fourth quarter and year-end 2023 and into 2024, we are positioned for and expect to see much of the same as we go forward. We are confident that we'll continue to grow, perform and drive Lennar to new levels of performance.

知道在執行計劃時要做什麼推動了本季度的成功，並確保在可預見的未來持續取得成功。當我們展望 2023 年第四季和年底以及 2024 年的成功時，我們已做好準備並預計在未來的發展過程中會看到很多相同的情況。我們相信，我們將繼續發展、表現並推動 Lennar 達到新的績效水準。

Thank you. And with that, let me turn it over to Jon.

謝謝。接下來，讓我把它交給喬恩。

Thanks, Stuart. Good morning, everyone. As Stuart noted, the housing market is healthy overall as supply remains tight, demand remains strong and buyers have become more comfortable with higher mortgage rates. In our third quarter, we continue to offer a combination of attractive pricing in compelling mortgage rate programs to capture that demand. Our price-to-market strategy reflects our balance sheet-first focus, where we can maintain starts in sales, increase market share, generate cash flow and keep our homebuilding machine going. The execution of our pricing strategy is based on the strength of the individual market, matched against the level of production we have in that market is done on a community-by-community basis.

謝謝，斯圖爾特。大家，早安。正如史都華所指出的那樣，房地產市場總體健康，供應仍然緊張，需求仍然強勁，買家對更高的抵押貸款利率更加滿意。在第三季度，我們繼續在引人注目的抵押貸款利率計劃中提供有吸引力的定價組合，以滿足這一需求。我們的市價策略反映了我們以資產負債表為先的重點，我們可以維持銷售開工、增加市場份額、產生現金流並保持我們的住宅建築機器運作。我們的定價策略的執行是基於各個市場的實力，並與我們在該市場的生產水平相匹配，這是在逐個社區的基礎上完成的。

In the current environment, all of our markets are benefiting from radio demand and supply. And while some markets like in Florida or the Carolinas are stronger than others, we were able to achieve our designed sales pace in all our markets. In our third quarter, the majority of our markets had a higher sales pace in Q3 compared to Q2 and also used higher incentives in Q3, along with an increase in marketing and broker spend.

在當前環境下，我們所有的市場都受益於無線電需求和供應。雖然佛羅裡達州或卡羅來納州等一些市場比其他市場強勁，但我們能夠在所有市場上實現設計的銷售速度。在我們的第三季度，我們的大多數市場在第三季度的銷售速度比第二季度更高，並且在第三季度也使用了更高的激勵措施，同時行銷和經紀人支出也有所增加。

In all markets, our homebuilding teams work closely with our mortgage to find the right solution for each buyer to help fulfill their desire to purchase. Our sales strategy of fighting market clearing pricing is designed to match the pace of homes under construction, which in turn gives us confidence to maintain a consistent pace of starts. This consistent start pace is the foundation for our production-first strategy. As we continuously improve the way we execute this game plan, we have grown our trade base, maintained lower construction costs and reduced cycle time. These improvements enabled our third quarter starts to increase 17% from the prior year.

在所有市場中，我們的住宅建築團隊與抵押貸款部門密切合作，為每個買家找到合適的解決方案，以幫助滿足他們的購買願望。我們對抗市場出清定價的銷售策略旨在與在建房屋的節奏相匹配，這反過來又使我們有信心保持一致的開工節奏。這種一致的啟動速度是我們生產優先策略的基礎。隨著我們不斷改進執行該遊戲計劃的方式，我們擴大了我們的貿易基礎，保持了較低的建設成本並縮短了週期時間。這些改進使我們第三季的開工率比去年同期增加了 17%。

Continued focus on our production-first strategy has enhanced Lennar's position as the builder of choice for trades. Our existing trade partners are increasing their business with Lennar, while our approach is also attracting new trades. This increase in access to trade combined with a normalized supply chain led to a significant improvement in our third quarter cycle time. For the quarter, cycle time decreased by 32 days sequentially from Q2. Progress is difficult to measure precisely as product mix changes, but we are clearly on a path to getting back to pre-pandemic cycle times and expect to continue to see improvement in the fourth quarter and into 2024.

持續專注於生產優先策略增強了 Lennar 作為行業首選建築商的地位。我們現有的貿易夥伴正在增加與 Lennar 的業務，同時我們的方法也吸引了新的貿易。貿易准入的增加與供應鏈的標準化相結合，導致我們第三季的周期時間顯著改善。本季的周期時間比第二季連續減少了 32 天。隨著產品結構的變化，很難準確衡量進展情況，但我們顯然正在回到大流行前的周期時間，並預計第四季度和 2024 年將繼續看到改善。

Looking at our third quarter, as expected, our construction costs fell sequentially from Q2 by about 5%. In addition, our Q3 costs were down about 4% on a year-over-year basis. This was down significantly from the 8% year-over-year increase we saw in Q2. Again, this is the trajectory of cost reduction we guided to last quarter.

看看我們的第三季度，正如預期的那樣，我們的建築成本比第二季度連續下降了約 5%。此外，我們第三季的成本較去年同期下降了約 4%。這比我們在第二季度看到的 8% 的同比增幅顯著下降。同樣，這是我們上季度指導的成本削減軌跡。

Looking forward, you can expect Lennar to be focused on planned and SKU reductions, value engineering to further reduce costs and introducing additional workforce housing communities in many markets across our platform.

展望未來，Lennar 將專注於計劃和 SKU 削減、價值工程以進一步降低成本，並在我們平台上的許多市場引入更多的勞動力住房社區。

I would like to conclude with our land-light strategy and community count. In our third quarter, we continue to effectively work with our strategic land and land bank partners with a purchase land on our behalf and then deliver just-in-time finished home sites to our homebuilding machine. In the third quarter, about 85% of our $1.5 billion land acquisition with finished homesites purchased from various land structures. We have made significant progress again in the third quarter as our year's supply of owned homesites improved to 1.5 years from 2.2 years, and our controlled home site percentage increased to 73% from 79% year-over-year, respectively.

我想以我們的土地照明策略和社區計數作為結束語。在第三季度，我們繼續與戰略土地和土地銀行合作夥伴有效合作，代表我們購買土地，然後將完工的住宅用地及時交付給我們的住宅建築機器。第三季度，我們 15 億美元的土地收購中約 85% 是從各種土地結構購買的成品住宅用地。我們在第三季度再次取得了重大進展，自有宅基地的供應年限從 2.2 年提高到了 1.5 年，我們的自控宅基地百分比也從去年同期的 79% 增加到了 73%。

The reduction in cycle time and the reduction in owned land will increase cash flow as well as help improve inventory churn, which now stands at 1.3 versus 1.1 last year, an 18% increase. Our community count at the end of the third quarter was 1,253, which was up 5% from the year ago period, and we expect to increase our community count in the high single digits by the end of fiscal 2023 from 2022.

週期時間的縮短和自有土地的減少將增加現金流，並有助於改善庫存流失率，庫存流失率目前為 1.3，而去年為 1.1，增加了 18%。截至第三季末，我們的社區數量為 1,253 個，比去年同期增長 5%，我們預計到 2023 財年末，我們的社區數量將從 2022 年開始以高個位數增長。

The strategies of our sales pace matching production pace, which leads to lower cycle times and construction costs, combined with an asset-light focus, which leads to the reduction of owned land, are reducing risk, improving returns and strengthening the balance sheet for Lennar.

我們的銷售節奏與生產節奏相符的策略可縮短週期時間和建設成本，再加上以輕資產為重點，從而減少自有土地，這些策略正在降低風險、提高回報並強化 Lennar 的資產負債表。

I want to recognize and thank all of our associates for their hard work and dedication and focusing on these strategies and for delivering a solid third quarter. I'd now like to turn it over to Diane.

我要表彰並感謝我們所有員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，他們專注於這些策略，並交付了穩健的第三季業績。我現在想把它交給黛安。

Thank you, Jon, and good morning, everyone. So Stuart and Jon have provided a great deal of color regarding our homebuilding performance. So therefore, I'm going to spend a few minutes on the results of our Financial Services operations and our balance sheet and then provide guidance for Q4 2023.

謝謝你，喬恩，大家早安。因此，史都華和喬恩為我們的住宅建築表現提供了大量的色彩。因此，我將花幾分鐘介紹我們的金融服務營運結果和資產負債表，然後提供 2023 年第四季的指導。

So starting with Financial Services. For the third quarter, our Financial Services team had operating earnings of $148 million. Looking at the details, mortgage operating earnings were $111 million compared to $64 million in the prior year. The increase in earnings was driven by higher lot volume as a result of higher orders and capture rates and higher profit per lot to loan as a result of lower cost per loan as the team continues to focus on efficiencies and additionally, higher secondary margins.

所以從金融服務開始。第三季度，我們的金融服務團隊的營業收入為 1.48 億美元。從細節來看，抵押貸款營業收入為 1.11 億美元，而前一年為 6,400 萬美元。收入成長的推動因素是訂單量和捕獲率提高，批次數量增加，以及每筆貸款成本降低，每批貸款利潤更高，因為團隊繼續關注效率以及更高的二級利潤。

Total operating earnings were $37 million compared to earnings of $33 million, which excludes a $36 million onetime charge due to the litigation accrual in the prior year. Final earnings increased primarily as a result of higher volume and a decrease in cost per transaction as the team continues to focus on using technology to increase productivity. These solid results were accomplished as a result of great synergies between our homebuilding and Financial Services teams. They truly operate under the banner of 1 Lennar.

總營業利潤為 3,700 萬美元，而收益為 3,300 萬美元，其中不包括因上一年應計訴訟費用而產生的 3,600 萬美元一次性費用。最終收入的增加主要是由於團隊繼續專注於使用技術來提高生產力，因此交易量增加和每筆交易成本下降。這些紮實的成果是我們的住宅建築和金融服務團隊之間巨大協同作用的結果。他們真正在 1 Lennar 的旗幟下運作。

So now turning to the balance sheet. This quarter, once again, we were steadfast in our determination to turn our inventory and generate cash by maintaining production and pricing homes to market to deliver as many homes as possible to meet housing demand. The [jumping] also continued with our determination to preserve cash to increase asset efficiency. The end result of these actions was that we ended the quarter with $3.9 billion of cash and had no borrowings on our $2.6 billion revolving credit facility. This provided a total liquidity of $6.5 million and great -- sorry, and great financial flexibility for the future.

現在轉向資產負債表。本季度，我們再次堅定決心透過維持生產和按市場定價房屋來扭轉庫存並產生現金，以交付盡可能多的房屋來滿足住房需求。我們保留現金以提高資產效率的決心也繼續[跳躍]。這些行動的最終結果是，我們在本季結束時擁有 39 億美元的現金，而我們的 26 億美元循環信貸額度中沒有任何借款。這提供了 650 萬美元的總流動資金，非常抱歉，並為未來提供了巨大的財務靈活性。

As a result of our continued focus on balance sheet efficiency, we made significant progress on our goal of becoming land lighter. At quarter end, our home sites control increased to 73% from 69% in the prior year, and our years owned improved to 1.5 years from 2.2 years in the prior year, our highest controlled percentage and our lowest years owned in our history. Jon mentioned, we spent approximately $1.5 billion on land purchases this quarter. However, about 85% were finished homesites where vertical construction will soon begin.

由於我們持續關注資產負債表效率，我們在減少土地消耗的目標上取得了重大進展。截至季末，我們的主場控制權從上年的 69% 增加到 73%，我們的擁有年限從上年的 2.2 年提高到 1.5 年，這是我們歷史上最高的控制比例和最低的擁有年限。 Jon 提到，本季我們在土地購買上花費了約 15 億美元。然而，大約 85% 的住宅區已完工，垂直施工即將開始。

At quarter end, we owned 107,000 homesites and controlled 284,000 homesites, for a total of 391,000 homesites. We believe this portfolio provides us with a strong competitive position to continue to grow market share in a capital-efficient way. During the quarter, we started about 18,700 homes and ended the quarter with approximately 43,600 total homes in inventory. This inventory number includes about 2,000 models, and (inaudible) include about 1,400 homes that were completed unsold as we successfully managed the finished inventory -- finished inventory level.

截至季末，我們擁有 107,000 個宅基地，並控制 284,000 個宅基地，總計 391,000 個宅基地。我們相信，該投資組合為我們提供了強大的競爭地位，能夠以資本高效的方式繼續擴大市場份額。本季度，我們開工了約 18,700 套房屋，到本季結束時，庫存房屋總數約為 43,600 套。這個庫存數字包括大約 2,000 個模型，並且（聽不清楚）包括大約 1,400 套在我們成功管理成品庫存（成品庫存水準）時未售出的房屋。

In our continued effort to further strengthen and derisk our balance sheet by reducing our debt balances, we retired $425 million aggregate principal of our 5.78 (sic) [5.875%] senior notes due in November 2024 and repurchased about $50 million of senior notes also due in fiscal 2024 or -- at or below par.

在我們繼續努力透過減少債務餘額來進一步加強和降低資產負債表風險的過程中，我們收回了2024 年11 月到期的5.78（原文如此）[5.875%] 優先票據的4.25 億美元本金總額，並回購了約5,000 萬美元也到期的優先票據2024 財年或－等於或低於標準。

We've repaid about $6.1 billion of senior notes over the last 2 years, which equates to more than $330 million of annual interest savings. As a result of our debt reduction initiatives, we ended the quarter with a total senior note balance just under $3 billion, which was less than our cash balance of almost $4 billion. The net senior note maturity of $378 million is due in December 2023.

過去兩年我們償還了約 61 億美元的優先票據，相當於每年節省超過 3.3 億美元的利息。由於我們採取了債務削減舉措，本季末我們的優先票據餘額總額略低於 30 億美元，低於我們近 40 億美元的現金餘額。 3.78 億美元的優先票據淨額將於 2023 年 12 月到期。

Combined with strong earnings, our homebuilding debt to total capital was 11.5% at quarter end, our lowest ever, which is an improvement from 15% in the prior year. Consistent with our commitment to strategic capital allocation, we repurchased 3 million of our shares totaling $366 million. Year-to-date, we've repurchased 7 million shares totaling $763 million. Additionally, we paid dividends totaling $107 million during the quarter. So in total, we returned almost $1 billion to all our investors this quarter, our equity holders and our debt holders.

加上強勁的盈利，截至季度末，我們的住宅建築債務佔總資本的比例為 11.5%，為歷史最低水平，較上一年的 15% 有所改善。根據我們對策略資本配置的承諾，我們回購了 300 萬股股票，總價值 3.66 億美元。年初至今，我們已回購 700 萬股股票，總價值達 7.63 億美元。此外，我們在本季度支付了總計 1.07 億美元的股息。因此，本季我們總共向所有投資者、股權持有人和債務持有人返還了近 10 億美元。

And just a few final points on our balance sheet. Our stockholders' equity increased to almost $26 million. Our book value per share increased to just over $90. Our return on inventory was 26% and our return on equity was 16%.

我們的資產負債表上還有最後幾點。我們的股東權益增加到近 2,600 萬美元。我們的每股帳面價值增加到略高於 90 美元。我們的庫存回報率為 26%，股本回報率為 16%。

In summary, the strength of our balance sheet, strong liquidity and low leverage provides us with significant confidence in financial flexibility as we come to the end of 2023 and head into 2024.

總之，隨著 2023 年底和 2024 年的到來，我們的資產負債表實力、強勁的流動性和低槓桿率使我們對財務彈性充滿信心。

So with that brief over to you, let's turn to guidance, starting with new orders. We expect Q4 new orders to be in the range of 16,200 to 17,200 homes as we match sales with production. And as Jon mentioned, we expect our Q4 ending inventory count to increase in the mid-single-digit percentage range year-over-year. We anticipate our Q4 deliveries to be in the range of 21,500 to 22,500 homes. This would bring our annual delivery to be in the range of 70,800 to 71,800, which is an increase of 7% to 8% year-over-year.

因此，在向您簡要介紹之後，讓我們轉向指導，從新訂單開始。由於我們將銷售與生產相匹配，我們預計第四季度的新訂單將在 16,200 至 17,200 套之間。正如喬恩所提到的，我們預計第四季末庫存數量將年增中個位數百分比。我們預計第四季的交付量將在 21,500 至 22,500 戶之間。這將使我們的年交付量達到70,800至71,800輛，較去年同期成長7%至8%。

Our Q4 average sales price will be approximately flat with Q3 as we continue to price to market and offer incentives to match affordability. We expect gross margins to be in the range of 24.4% to 24.6%, and we expect our SG&A to be in the range of 6.7% to 6.9% as we continue to focus on maintaining sales and production paces.

我們第四季的平均銷售價格將與第三季大致持平，因為我們繼續根據市場定價並提供激勵措施以匹配負擔能力。我們預計毛利率將在 24.4% 至 24.6% 範圍內，隨著我們繼續專注於維持銷售和生產步伐，我們預計 SG&A 將在 6.7% 至 6.9% 範圍內。

And for the combined homebuilding joint venture, land sales and other categories, we expect to have earnings of about $25 million. We anticipate our Financial Services earnings for Q4 to be in the range of $130 million to $135 million, and we expect a loss of about $20 million for our Multifamily business and a loss of approximately $25 million for the Lennar other category.

對於合併後的住宅建築合資企業、土地銷售和其他類別，我們預計收益約為 2500 萬美元。我們預計第四季度的金融服務收入將在 1.3 億至 1.35 億美元之間，我們預計多戶型業務將虧損約 2,000 萬美元，Lennar 其他類別將虧損約 2,500 萬美元。

So Lennar other estimate does not include any potential market just mark-to-market adjustments to our public technology investments since that adjustment will be determined by their stock prices at the end of our quarter.

因此，Lennar 的其他估計不包括任何潛在市場，只是對我們公共技術投資的按市價調整，因為該調整將由我們季度末的股價決定。

We expect our Q4 corporate G&A to be about 1.1% of total revenues, and our charitable foundation contribution will be based on $1,000 per home delivery. We expect our tax rate to be about 24.5% and the weighted average share count should be approximately 281 million shares. So when you pull all that together, weighted estimates should produce an EPS range of approximately $4.40 to $4.75 per share for the fourth quarter.

我們預計第四季度的企業管理費用將佔總收入的 1.1% 左右，我們的慈善基金會捐款將基於每次送貨上門 1,000 美元。我們預計稅率約為 24.5%，加權平均股數約為 2.81 億股。因此，當您將所有這些綜合起來時，加權估計值應產生第四季度每股收益約 4.40 美元至 4.75 美元。

And finally, as Stuart mentioned, as we think about 2024, our initial growth expectation is currently 10%. And so therefore, we were cord to another very successful year.

最後，正如 Stuart 所提到的，當我們考慮 2024 年時，我們目前的初始成長預期是 10%。因此，我們又迎來了非常成功的一年。

And with that, let me turn it over to the operator.

然後，讓我把它交給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Truman Patterson from Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Truman Patterson。

So Diane, thanks for clarifying that at the end that 24% growth target -- of about 10%. But looking at your fourth quarter guide, you had very strong third quarter orders. Just trying to understand that fiscal fourth quarter order guide down about 15% sequentially. Was that really due to the healthy third quarter selling where you reduced your spec availability and kind of internal inventory positioning going into the fourth quarter? Is it just normal seasonality? Does it imply a modest deceleration in the consumer, given the recent rate move? Just hoping you can help us unpack that.

所以黛安，感謝您澄清最後 24% 的成長目標——大約 10%。但從第四季指南來看，第三季訂單非常強勁。只是想了解第四財季訂單指南環比下降了約 15%。這真的是由於第三季的健康銷售導致您減少了進入第四季度的規格可用性和內部庫存定位嗎？這只是正常的季節性嗎？考慮到最近的利率變動，這是否意味著消費者的消費會適度放緩？只是希望你能幫助我們解開這個謎。

Sure. Thanks, Truman. Yes, you're right to tie those together. The fact is that as we enter the fourth quarter, which is seasonally a more quieter time of the year. We did have a very strong third quarter sales. We do expect to see strength in the fourth quarter. But seasonality has returned to some extent. And additionally, we've seen interest rates pick up again. So we're just moderating our view of where the fourth quarter goes and making sure that as we come into the fourth quarter, we're well positioned to achieve exactly what we said.

當然。謝謝，杜魯門。是的，你把它們連結在一起是對的。事實是，當我們進入第四季時，從季節性角度來看，這是一年中較為安靜的時期。我們第三季的銷售確實非常強勁。我們確實預計第四季會出現強勁表現。但季節性在某種程度上已經回歸。此外，我們也看到利率再次上升。因此，我們只是調整對第四季度發展的看法，並確保進入第四季度時，我們處於有利位置，能夠準確實現我們所說的目標。

I would just add Sherman that it's all part of our process to have a design sales pace so that matches the production coming out of our assembly line out in our communities.

我想補充謝爾曼，設計銷售節奏是我們流程的一部分，以便與社區裝配線的生產相匹配。

Okay. Okay. Perfect. And then I thought Rick was going to be on this call to congratulate him on retirement, but since he can't defend himself, maybe we should just (inaudible) our grievances against him. But look, just big picture, how are the 2 of you, Jon, Stuart, just kind of dividing responsibilities given Rick's retirement.

好的。好的。完美的。然後我以為瑞克會參加這次電話會議，祝賀他退休，但既然他無法為自己辯護，或許我們應該（聽不清楚）對他表達不滿。但是，看一下，從大局來看，你們兩個，喬恩，斯圖爾特，在瑞克退休後如何分工。

Well, listen, we have tried comfortably streamlining the business. Jon is overseeing operations across the country at this point and have been doing that for some time now. And what is happening over the past years is our regional presidents and our operators had just really stepped up and have become far more self-sufficient, driven by some of the technology support that we've created across the platform.

好吧，聽著，我們已經嘗試輕鬆地簡化業務。喬恩目前正在監督全國各地的業務，並且已經這樣做了一段時間了。過去幾年發生的事情是，在我們跨平台創建的一些技術支援的推動下，我們的區域總裁和我們的營運商真正加強了工作，變得更加自給自足。

There's just a very orderly program of operations as we go forward that is guided by Jon on a regular basis in combination between what we call our daily call, it's actually every other day. And additionally, our operations review meetings, which we're kind of in the middle of right now, we begin at the beginning of each quarter. Jon goes to some, I go to some, but we are present, we are engaged, we are involved in kind of level setting our divisional focus across the platform. And Jon and I have comfortably shared responsibility for about 40 years. I think we've kind of been stepping into and doing that. We'll be able to comfortably do that right now.

我們前進的過程中有一個非常有序的操作計劃，由喬恩定期指導，結合我們所謂的每日電話，實際上是每隔一天。此外，我們的營運審查會議（我們現在正在進行中）在每個季度初開始。喬恩去了一些，我去了一些，但我們在場，我們參與其中，我們參與了跨平台部門重點的級別設置。喬恩和我輕鬆地共同承擔了大約 40 年的責任。我認為我們已經開始這樣做了。我們現在就能輕鬆地做到這一點。

Yes, I think that can't be underestimated, the familiarity of working together for 30 years and managing the business across the country. But I think started on the key point, which is we're a different company today. The efficiencies that we're driving in large part are because we become much simpler, particularly at the land acquisition standpoint. You remember, we used to have a lot of complex joint ventures. We used to speculate more on land. Today, we're a very efficient buyer of finished homesites from some strategic land partnerships and strategic land banks. And that really fuels the front end of a machine that is very orderly and very focused in today's world for Lennar.

是的，我認為這是不能低估的，共同工作30年並在全國範圍內管理業務的熟悉程度。但我認為從關鍵點開始，那就是我們今天是一家不同的公司。我們所提高的效率在很大程度上是因為我們變得更加簡單，特別是在土地徵用方面。你還記得嗎，我們曾經有很多複雜的合資企業。我們過去更多地對陸地進行投機。如今，我們是從一些策略性土地合作夥伴和策略性土地儲備中非常有效率地購買成品住宅的買家。這確實為 Lennar 的機器前端提供了動力，該機器在當今世界非常有序且非常專注。

Our next question comes from Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

My first question is, Stuart, you mentioned that you continue to expect to see growth next year even with the meaningful strides that you've made over the last several quarters in there. When you think about the construction -- the production constraints in the industry though, can you talk to how you think you can add capacity in this kind of an environment? And any thoughts on how to think about 2024 from a volume perspective?

我的第一個問題是，斯圖爾特，您提到，儘管您在過去幾個季度取得了有意義的進步，但您仍預計明年會出現增長。當您考慮建築業的生產限制時，您能談談您認為如何在這種環境下增加產能嗎？對於如何從數量角度思考 2024 年，您有什麼想法嗎？

So look, as we've looked at 2024, it's not so much about adding production at this point. We are positioned for a very strong 2024 right now. We have the land. We have it identified. It is under contract or in our pipeline. It is under development. 2024 at this point, except for the overall sales environment, is pretty much embedded in our system. So we have pretty good visibility at this point.

所以，正如我們所看到的 2024 年，此時此刻並沒有增加產量。我們現在已經做好了迎接非常強勁的 2024 年的準備。我們有土地。我們已經識別出來了。它正在合約中或正在我們的籌備中。它正在開發中。此時，除了整體銷售環境之外，2024 年幾乎已經嵌入我們的系統中。所以我們現在有很好的可見性。

We keep talking about selling and building and programming by process. And by process, we just have great visibility into what we're able to produce for 2024. And in fact, if you look at our kind of 5-year land planning and overall production schedules, we have pretty good visibility even beyond.

我們一直在談論按流程進行銷售、建造和編程。透過流程，我們對 2024 年的生產能力有很好的了解。事實上，如果你看看我們的 5 年土地規劃和整體生產計劃，我們甚至可以對未來有很好的了解。

Now the question is, what's the market going to do? And how is the market going to react? We are going to continue to price to market conditions. We are an operating -- manufacturing platform that is going to price to market. And if the market moves a little bit, you're going to see our margins be, as I said before, the shock absorber.

現在的問題是，市場會做什麼？市場將如何反應？我們將繼續根據市場情況定價。我們是一個營運製造平台，將根據市場定價。如果市場稍微變動，你會看到我們的利潤率就像我之前所說的那樣，起到減震器的作用。

So when we talk about a projection of growth for 2024, we have pretty good certainty that we can accomplish that. And how the market unfolds in these kind of uncertain times where interest rates are moving, the Fed is clearly trying to take liquidity out of the system, we're going to wait and see how it actually evolves. But our target right now is in that low double-digit level of growth for 2024. And we think it's achieve -- we know it's achievable, we'll see how the market (inaudible).

因此，當我們談論 2024 年的成長預測時，我們非常有把握能夠實現這一目標。在利率變動的不確定時期，市場如何發展，聯準會顯然試圖從系統中抽走流動性，我們將拭​​目以待，看看它實際上會如何演變。但我們現在的目標是 2024 年實現兩位數的低成長水平。我們認為它已經實現——我們知道這是可以實現的，我們將看看市場如何（聽不清楚）。

Susan, you asked about our production capacity. That visibility Stuart speaks to, we clearly communicate that with our trade partners today about what is coming in the future quarters. So they're prepared and we're prepared as that production -- as are our system will be coming online to be able to manage that volume.

蘇珊，您問的是我們的生產能力。史都華談到的可見性，我們今天與我們的貿易夥伴就未來幾季的情況進行了明確的溝通。因此，他們已經做好了準備，我們也已經做好了生產準備，我們的系統也將上線，以便能夠管理這一數量。

And Susan, I guess I'd just add that 10% low double digits. That's from a volume perspective. We'll have to see how kind of margin and other items play out, but at least it gives you a perspective on the volume level.

蘇珊，我想我只需加上 10% 的低兩位數即可。這是從數量角度來看的。我們必須看看利潤率和其他項目的表現如何，但至少它讓您對交易量水平有一個了解。

The target.

目標。

Target. The target, yes.

目標。目標，是的。

Okay. That's very helpful. And maybe building on that a bit. You've obviously talked a lot about thinking of the cash generation of the business and converting net income to cash flows. As you think about the go-forward and the environment that we're in and the increased agility in the business, what could that mean for cash generation next year? Any thoughts there?

好的。這非常有幫助。也許在此基礎上再進一步。顯然，您已經談論了很多關於企業現金產生以及將淨收入轉換為現金流的問題。當您考慮未來的發展、我們所處的環境以及業務敏捷性的提高時，這對明年的現金產生意味著什麼？有什麼想法嗎？

Everything that we have done to reconfigure our business is focused on turning profitability into cash flow and making sure that we are generating a consistent level of cash coming in. And everything that we're underwriting right now, even if margin moves up or down to some extent as a moderator for where sales or interest rates might go, our cash flow is still going to be very, very strong as we go forward.

我們為重新配置業務所做的一切都集中在將盈利能力轉化為現金流，並確保我們產生穩定的現金流入水平。我們現在承保的一切，即使利潤率上升或下降到在某種程度上，作為銷售或利率可能走向的調節者，隨著我們的前進，我們的現金流仍然會非常非常強勁。

Next, we'll go to the line of Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI.

接下來，我們將介紹來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Congrats on the results. I did want to touch on the comp -- some of your longer-term comments. So first of all, not to get too granular, but in 2024, the closings number. We've observed as cycle times have improved, you've been able to deliver more units or close more units than you've taken orders for. Was curious as you look into 2024, Diane, is it reasonable to think that you could likely close as many units as you take orders for?

祝賀結果。我確實想談談你們的一些長期評論。首先，不要太細化，而是 2024 年的成交數字。我們觀察到，隨著週期時間的縮短，您能夠交付或關閉的設備數量將多於您所接受的訂單。 Diane，當您展望 2024 年時，您很好奇，您可能會關閉與您收到的訂單一樣多的單位，這是否合理？

And then secondarily, you talked about -- I think, Stuart, you talked about return on assets as being an important metric for you. Curious if you could give us a sense for longer term, where you target your ROA as you look -- think about the business going forward?

其次，你談到了——我想，斯圖爾特，你談到資產回報率對你來說是一個重要的指標。很好奇您能否讓我們了解您的長期目標，即您的 ROA 目標—考慮未來的業務？

So -- okay. So we do think that as we sell, where our delivery schedule is really tied pretty closely to, given the fact that we are not selling way out in front, it's pretty much tied to how we're selling and in the current sales pace. And so you can look at that today and see our operating machine really working. Sales and starts and closings are all working in close proximity to one another.

所以——好吧。因此，我們確實認為，在我們銷售時，我們的交貨時間表確實與我們的銷售計劃密切相關，因為我們的銷售方式並不遙遙領先，這與我們的銷售方式和當前的銷售速度密切相關。因此，您今天可以看到我們的操作機器真正在工作。銷售、開工和結帳都是緊密相連的。

In terms of return on assets, Steve, which is a great question. We have the difficulty of an asset base that just because of strong earnings and strong cash, it becomes a tougher and tougher hurdle. Our focus is on return on assets closer to 20%. So it gets harder to achieve as we keep adding earnings and asset base to the program. And one could argue that we need to be buying back stock a little bit more aggressively. Diane and I talk about this all the time. And I'd say that we look at this opportunistically. Looks like today's stock price is getting even more attractive. So it's part of the program, but we are targeting in excess of a 20% return on assets.

就資產回報率而言，史蒂夫，這是一個很好的問題。我們的資產基礎面臨著困難，僅僅因為強勁的獲利和強勁的現金，它就成為一個越來越難的障礙。我們的重點是接近 20% 的資產回報率。因此，隨著我們不斷增加該計劃的收入和資產基礎，要實現這一目標變得更加困難。有人可能會說，我們需要更積極地回購股票。黛安和我一直在談論這個。我想說的是，我們會以機會主義的方式看待這個問題。看來今天的股價變得更具吸引力了。所以這是該計劃的一部分，但我們的目標是資產回報率超過 20%。

Yes, I think that's right, Steve. I mean you have to kind of make it a little bit more granular, right, as we focus on turning our inventory as we focus on reducing our years of loans, those are all helpful components, of course, to return on assets. So -- and if we pair that with a consistent buyback program, which we have been consistent, the amounts may vary quarter-to-quarter, but we have a pretty consistent program. And I think that all bodes well in us choosing something over 20% as time goes on.

是的，我認為這是對的，史蒂夫。我的意思是，你必須讓它變得更細化，對吧，當我們專注於週轉庫存時，我們專注於減少貸款年限，當然，這些都是有助於資產回報的組成部分。因此，如果我們將其與一致的回購計劃（我們一直以來都是一致的）結合起來，金額可能會因季度而異，但我們有一個非常一致的計劃。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們選擇超過 20% 的東西是個好兆頭。

Yes, that's really helpful. And that's kind of where I was going to go next. So I appreciate you anticipating that. Next question I have...

是的，這確實很有幫助。這就是我下一步要去的地方。所以我很感謝你的期待。下一個問題我...

We saw it coming.

我們看到了它的到來。

Yes, exactly. Next question I have relates to sort of market conditions and, in particular, the entry level of the market in light of the rate increase. So I would say my question is, in general, would you say that the move-up segment right now is performing a little stronger than entry level? And at the entry level, when we think of rate buydowns, like what percent of -- your sales are using a rate buydown? And are you going into the market buying -- making forward purchase commitments? And are you increasing the degree of rate buydown relative to the prevailing rate? Or are you continuing to buy down that rate by about the same spread?

對，就是這樣。我的下一個問題涉及市場狀況，特別是升息後的市場准入水準。所以我想說，我的問題是，總的來說，您是否認為升級細分市場的表現比入門級細分市場稍強？在入門級，當我們考慮利率購買時，例如您的銷售額中有多少百分比使用利率購買？您是否會進入市場購買—做出遠期購買承諾？相對於現行利率，您是否會加大利率購買力道？或者您是否繼續以相同的價差買進該利率？

So listen, as we've said, as rates move around, as demand moves around, we are tapping incentives up or down, we're maintaining pace. But the fact is that -- we haven't had to move dramatically in either direction as rates have moved currently. You asked whether it's the entry-level buyer or the move-up buyer that is doing better, frankly, there's strong demand across the platform. And in all segments, we are seeing strong demand out there.

因此，正如我們所說，隨著利率的變化，隨著需求的變化，我們會提高或降低激勵措施，我們會保持步伐。但事實是──隨著目前利率的變化，我們不必朝任一方向大幅變動。您問是入門級買家還是升級級買家做得更好，坦白說，整個平台的需求都很強勁。在所有細分市場中，我們都看到了強勁的需求。

Affordability is kind of a question and meeting the buyer where the facilities -- where the affordability exists is kind of the trick of the market and getting it just right. And so these are tweaks right now up and down. And of course, depending on where interest rates go, interest rates go that is going to be the determinant of how much of an incentive has to be given or doesn't have to be given. And that's what we're kind of working our way through right now as you go through pricing. Jon, could you add on that?

可負擔性是一個問題，在設施齊全、可負擔性存在的地方與買家會面是市場的技巧，並使其恰到好處。所以現在這些都是上下調整。當然，取決於利率的走向，利率的走向將決定必須給予或不必給予多少激勵。這就是我們現在在定價時正在努力解決的問題。喬恩，你能補充一下嗎？

Yes. Steve, you asked the question. We do buy forward commitments, but we do see as interest rates fluctuate, the participation and those commitments stays very steady from the month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter. And it's primarily used for our first-time buyers. And as you know, with our production model, it's very effective because we sell homes closer to being completed versus selling homes before they're started. So we're able to lock in our buyers, which is really important because those buyers want to lock in our at risk to suddenly not qualifying if rates move on them.

是的。史蒂夫，你問了這個問題。我們確實購買遠期承諾，但我們確實看到，隨著利率波動，參與度和這些承諾在每個月、每季都保持非常穩定。它主要用於我們的首次購買者。如您所知，透過我們的生產模式，它非常有效，因為我們銷售的房屋接近竣工，而不是在房屋開工之前出售。因此，我們能夠鎖定我們的買家，這非常重要，因為這些買家希望鎖定我們的風險，因為如果利率變動，他們會突然失去資格。

We keep the spread pretty consistent on an average. But obviously, we have to help our first-time buyers more than our move-up buyers. But because of our ability to do that and really manage it closely to a production pace, we don't really see a difference in the levels of demand from quarter-over-quarter, month-to-month between those buyer segments.

平均而言，我們保持價差相當一致。但顯然，我們必須為首次購屋者提供比升級購屋者更多的幫助。但由於我們有能力做到這一點，並真正按照生產節奏進行管理，我們並沒有真正看到這些買家群體之間的季度與季度、月與月的需求水平存在差異。

Next, we'll go to the line of Carl Reichardt from BTIG.

接下來，我們將轉到 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt 系列。

Stuart, I hope you feel better. I have a question on dynamic pricing. I think it's fair to say if we remember the tape last year that using dynamic pricing allowed you to make -- find elasticity, make -- find homes at market clearing prices really quickly and across the platform quickly. So if you look at the model today and look at sort of a histogram across your geographies and markets, where do you see pricing power? Where are things still weak? And do you effectively say more markets are stable, then we have more markets where we're making a lot of adjustments up or down?

斯圖爾特，我希望你感覺好多了。我有一個關於動態定價的問題。我認為可以公平地說，如果我們還記得去年的磁帶，使用動態定價可以讓你找到彈性，讓你能夠非常快速地在整個平台上以市場出清價格找到房屋。因此，如果您查看今天的模型並查看您所在地區和市場的直方圖，您會在哪裡看到定價能力？哪些地方還弱？您是否實際上說更多的市場是穩定的，那麼我們有更多的市場我們正在向上或向下進行大量調整？

Carl, it's Jon. No, in every market, we are using closing costs, mortgage rate buy-downs, pricing to hit that desired pace. Clearly, we don't have to use it as much in Florida, the Carolinas, parts of Texas, other markets around the country where there's in-migration, strong job growth in some markets where you've seen a shift. In Austin and Boise, parts of California, we have to use them a little bit more.

卡爾，這是喬恩。不，在每個市場，我們都在利用成交成本、抵押貸款利率下調、定價來達到預期的速度。顯然，我們不必在佛羅裡達州、卡羅萊納州、德克薩斯州部分地區以及全國其他市場使用它，這些市場有移民流入，一些市場的就業增長強勁，你已經看到了轉變。在加州的奧斯汀和博伊西，我們必須更多地使用它們。

But as I said earlier in my comments, we're able to achieve our desired pace by managing those levers with each individual buyer at each community, home-by-home basis, they find the right monthly payment for them to deal with their mortgage qualification issues, get them locked into a loan and to hit our production levels.

但正如我之前在評論中所說，我們能夠透過管理每個社區的每個買家的槓桿來實現我們期望的速度，逐個家庭，他們找到合適的每月付款來處理抵押貸款資格問題，讓他們鎖定貸款並達到我們的生產水準。

Okay. And then on SG&A, again, long-term strategy for the company has been to lower buyers', brokers' commissions probably more aggressively than any other builder at least that I cover. Market got weaker, buyers, brokers have come back. So where does that strategy sit now in terms of your reliance on those brokers or your desire to continue to effectively dis-intermediate them or rely less on them?

好的。然後，在銷售、管理和行政費用方面，該公司的長期策略是降低買家、經紀人的佣金，這可能比我所報告的任何其他建築商都更積極。市場走弱，買家、經紀人紛紛回歸。那麼，就您對這些經紀人的依賴程度或您希望繼續有效地去中介化或減少對他們的依賴而言，該策略現在處於什麼位置？

Yes, we pretty consistently said that the realtor community that supports the industry -- and that comes in and does the work of bringing customers to our sales center and actually engage as a process is a friend of Lennar and we're always trying to work with the realtor community. But at the same time, what we've tried to do is eliminate the friends and family component that is basically just giving away. So we've done a pretty good job of creating a constructive relationship with the broker community while not overspending. And it migrates up and down as traffic is represented more and more by realtors.

是的，我們一直說，支持該行業的房地產經紀人社區——他們進來並致力於將客戶帶到我們的銷售中心並作為一個過程實際參與，是 Lennar 的朋友，我們一直在努力工作與房地產經紀人社區。但同時，我們試圖做的是消除基本上只是贈送的朋友和家人部分。因此，我們在與經紀商社群建立建設性關係方面做得非常好，同時又沒有超支。隨著房地產經紀人越來越多地代表流量，它會上下遷移。

Now of course, as the existing market has been more constrained, the realtors have been more focused on the new home market, and that means that we're getting a lot more traffic from the realtor community than we were getting when the existing market was more normalized. And with that said, you'll see our brokerage spend go up and down a little bit, which affects our SG&A.

當然，現在，由於現有市場受到更多限制，房地產經紀人更加關注新房市場，這意味著我們從房地產經紀人社區獲得的流量比現有市場成熟時獲得的流量要多得多。更常態化。話雖如此，您會看到我們的經紀支出略有上升和下降，這會影響我們的銷售管理費用。

But it's still highlighted. It's at very low levels compared to our historical norms. And the way that we use the broker community is really just where we have completed inventory homes to move. We're very disciplined about what we make available to the broker community so that we maintain that focus and control of our SG&A.

但它仍然突出。與我們的歷史標準相比，它處於非常低的水平。我們使用經紀人社區的方式實際上就是我們已經完成庫存房屋的搬遷。我們對經紀商社群提供的內容非常嚴格，以便我們保持對 SG&A 的關注和控制。

And let me just say lastly, we've talked an awful lot about our digital sales funnel together with our dynamic pricing level and sales engagement. We are really striving to drive more and more of our customer engagement through our digital world where we access customers, meet them where they want to find us and engage them very directly. That's where we think we can have the very best engagement with our customers.

最後我要說的是，我們已經談論了很多關於我們的數位銷售管道以及我們的動態定價水平和銷售參與度。我們確實在努力透過我們的數位世界來推動越來越多的客戶參與，在數位世界中，我們接觸客戶，在他們想要找到我們的地方與他們會面，並直接與他們互動。我們認為這就是我們可以與客戶進行最佳互動的地方。

And so we've talked about our digital sales machine. It's an important part of the way that we're creating a process around our sales program for the future, and it is evolving.

我們已經討論了我們的數位銷售機器。這是我們圍繞未來銷售計劃創建流程的重要組成部分，並且它正在不斷發展。

Next, we'll go to the line of Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

接下來，我們將介紹來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

Really strong results. Nice job. Stuart, first question, when you kind of talked about the net price declines in that kind of 10%, 11% range, historically, the typical spread between a new home and a resale, I believe, has been around 15%. I'm not sure you see it that way, but that's kind of what the data would show, roughly. And we clearly haven't seen that level of price declines in the resale market, which it feels like to me when you compare the strength we're seeing in the new home market today versus the resale market. I think there's a thesis out there. It's all inventory-driven, but it feels like some of that historical spread is definitely narrowed this year as you and other builders have been more aggressive on pricing to market.

確實很強勁的結果。不錯的工作。斯圖爾特，第一個問題，當你談到淨價下降 10%、11% 的範圍時，從歷史上看，我認為新房和轉售房之間的典型價差約為 15%。我不確定你是這麼看的，但這就是數據大致顯示的內容。我們顯然還沒有看到轉售市場的價格下跌水平，當你將我們今天在新房市場看到的實力與轉售市場進行比較時，我就有這種感覺。我認為那裡有一篇論文。這都是庫存驅動的，但感覺今年的一些歷史價差肯定會縮小，因為您和其他建築商在市場定價方面更加積極。

So when you think about that and you think about some of your other comments with -- your land cost is probably going to continue to rise. Construction cost, while there has been progress made there, it's probably stable from this point forward. If you don't see resale prices rising, can you maintain that progress you've made this year as far as now closing that spread versus resale? Or do you see that spread returning just as a function of higher costs over time?

因此，當您考慮到這一點並考慮到您的其他一些評論時，您的土地成本可能會繼續上升。建設成本雖然已經取得了進展，但從現在開始可能會保持穩定。如果您沒有看到轉售價格上漲，您能否維持今年的進展，直到目前縮小與轉售的價差？或者您認為利差只是隨著時間的推移成本上升而回歸？

Well, I'd say, Alan, that you're kind of sitting in a very strange configuration in the housing market right now. The resale market is -- inventory very, very constrained. This has been well documented that -- interest rates rising as much as they have, have less existing homeowners with 2 assets. They have a home that is valuable and they have equity. They also have a mortgage that is at a very low interest rate, and that also has great value.

好吧，我想說，艾倫，你現在在房地產市場的處境有點奇怪。轉售市場的庫存非常非常有限。這是有據可查的——利率上升得越多，擁有兩種資產的現有房主就越少。他們擁有有價值的房屋並且擁有資產。他們還有利率非常低的抵押貸款，而且也很有價值。

So they're just not bringing existing homes to market as much as -- or at the rate that you would traditionally see. And that short supply of existing homes has enabled that part of the market to stay a little bit more robust in pricing as the new home market has used incentives to meet the market where affordability actually exists.

因此，他們只是沒有像傳統上看到的那樣將現有房屋推向市場。現有房屋的供應短缺使得這部分市場的定價保持更加強勁，因為新房市場已經利用激勵措施來滿足實際存在負擔能力的市場。

So that configuration is creating an anomaly in a way that existing homes and new homes are priced. I've said in the past that I still think that the existing home market is kind of a zero-sum game in terms of the supply and demand because every time somebody sells an existing home, they go out and they have to buy another home. And so you add inventory, you subtract inventory. And I think that's kind of how that's configured.

因此，這種配置在現有房屋和新房的定價方式上造成了異常。我過去曾說過，我仍然認為現房市場在供需方面是一種零和遊戲，因為每當有人出售現房時，他們就必須出去購買另一套房子。因此，您可以添加庫存，也可以減少庫存。我認為這就是它的配置方式。

But from a pricing standpoint, I'm not surprised to see a little bit more parity between the existing homes at this point. And yes, I think that we can continue on our trajectory, depending on the overall macro environment, the interest rate environment. And where affordability is down, I think we can continue on our existing trajectory, even as the existing home market remains relatively strong because of short supply.

但從定價的角度來看，目前現有房屋之間的價格更加平等，我並不感到驚訝。是的，我認為我們可以繼續沿著我們的軌跡前進，這取決於整體宏觀環境、利率環境。在負擔能力下降的情況下，我認為我們可以繼續現有的軌跡，即使現有的房屋市場因供應短缺而保持相對強勁。

Got it. That's helpful to hear your thoughts there. Second, I guess, circling back to the ROA conversation. It has been a few quarters, I think, since you've talked publicly about the SpinCo plans and recognizing that's seemingly on hold for the time being. You still have about 10% of your assets right now not generating returns, which is clearly, I think, impacting the overall return calculation. So just curious if you care to provide any updated thoughts on ways to monetize that more quickly, recognizing the capital markets may not be the most advantageous right now?

知道了。聽到你的想法很有幫助。其次，我想，回到 ROA 的話題。我想，自從您公開談論分拆公司計劃並認識到該計劃似乎暫時被擱置以來，已經過去了幾個季度。現在你仍有大約 10% 的資產沒有產生回報，我認為這顯然影響了整體回報的計算。因此，我想知道您是否願意提供有關更快貨幣化方法的任何最新想法，並認識到資本市場目前可能不是最有利的？

Yes. I think that you laid it out well, that there has been some time and the capital markets continue to be not very constructive for executing a plan. It does sit in the background in the way. And I think it's something that will come back into light at another point in time. It's very much at the front of our mind when we think about how we're going to configure some of those assets that can be positioned differently, and there will be a moment in time where we come forward with the plan. It's not something that we stopped thinking about, it is something that we've stopped talking about because we just don't think that the capital markets are constructive for a program right now.

是的。我認為你說得很好，已經有一段時間了，資本市場對於執行計畫仍然不是很有建設性。它確實處於後台。我認為這件事會在另一個時間點重新浮出水面。當我們考慮如何配置一些可以以不同方式定位的資產時，這是我們首先考慮的問題，有時我們會提出該計劃。這不是我們停止思考的事情，而是我們已經停止談論的事情，因為我們只是認為資本市場現在對專案沒有建設性。

Next, we'll go to the line of Ken Zener from Seaport Research Partners.

接下來，我們將轉到 Seaport Research Partners 的 Ken Zener 的線路。

So I have 2 questions. They might have some subparts to them, so bear with me. But first question is, broadly speaking, the prioritization of returns versus growth. And I ask because this is basically a balance that you're striking between even flow and gross margins. So first item is it seems like even flows in this 19,000 plus or minus range. The word even would suggest less variance in seasonality. So quarterly, I mean, do you think variance is at, let's say, 10% sequentially in that start number? Or how is your machine working? Because it's obviously not such a larger variance of normal seasonality.

所以我有兩個問題。他們可能有一些子部分，所以請耐心等待。但從廣義上講，第一個問題是回報與成長的優先順序。我之所以這麼問，是因為這基本上是您在流量和毛利率之間取得的平衡。第一項似乎是在 19,000 上下的範圍內流動。這個詞甚至暗示季節性變化較小。所以，我的意思是，您認為每季的起始數字中的變異數是否為（比方說）10%？或者你的機器工作得怎麼樣？因為這顯然不是正常季節性的較大變異數。

And then related to that, it doesn't appear that we're seeing your focus on pace affecting gross margins, right, at 24%. So could you maybe kind of talk to that? I haven't heard you really talk about the dynamics of gross margins much, but the pace relative to the margins and what you think you're start pace can be on a variance basis?

與此相關的是，我們似乎沒有看到你們對速度的關注會影響毛利率（對吧，24%）。那你能談談這個嗎？我沒有聽你真正談論過毛利率的動態，但相對於利潤率的速度以及你認為你的起始速度可能會有所差異？

So Ken, we've been fairly -- I'm apologetic about saying that pace is our core focus. We're looking at even flow. We're using even flow to drive efficiencies, whether it's in SG&A or whether it's in construction costs, you can expect, as we've said before that, that consistent drumbeat of production is going to prevail, and we're going to use margin as a shock absorber or the moderator to enable us to maintain production pace.

所以肯，我們一直很公平——我很抱歉地說速度是我們的核心焦點。我們正在研究均勻流量。我們正在使用均勻的流程來提高效率，無論是在SG&A還是在建築成本方面，您可以預期，正如我們之前所說，一致的生產鼓聲將佔上風，我們將使用保證金作為減震器或調節器，使我們能夠保持生產速度。

Your numbers are, by and large, correct. There will be some adjustments for seasonality, which is anticipated. We see this in our fourth -- third quarter projection or guidance. But with that said, you can expect that you're going to see an even flow production model that -- within boundaries, we recognize that if the market really moves dramatically one way or another, we'll adjust those production levels. But within boundaries, you're going to see us focus on that constant production pace, defining a constant sales pace.

你的數字大致上是正確的。預計會有一些季節性調整。我們在第四至第三季的預測或指導中看到了這一點。但話雖如此，您可以預期您將看到一種均勻流動的生產模式，在一定範圍內，我們認識到，如果市場確實以這種或那種方式急劇變化，我們將調整這些生產水平。但在一定範圍內，您將看到我們專注於恆定的生產節奏，定義恆定的銷售節奏。

Okay. And then the second question. I didn't have necessarily gross margin, which seems to be in a positive position versus your implied 20% return on capital. But the second question -- and I think this is the most important issue that investors are overlooking for Lennar. Even flow tied to capital-light, less capital intensivity, 85% finished, home sites acquired in the quarter, 1.5 years of land. If that were to fall to 1 year, which if you keep buying in its life, it doesn't seem crazy, it's hypothetical. But 1.5 down to 1 year. That would be almost the third decline in land requirement on a land base of nearly $7 billion, equivalent to nearly $3 billion of decapitalization.

好的。然後是第二個問題。我不一定有毛利率，與您隱含的 20% 資本回報率相比，毛利率似乎處於積極的位置。但第二個問題——我認為這是投資者對 Lennar 忽視的最重要問題。即使流量與資本輕，資本密集度較低，85%完成，本季購置宅基地，1.5年土地。如果這個期限下降到一年，如果你在其生命週期中繼續購買，這似乎並不瘋狂，這只是假設。但 1.5 降至 1 年。這將是近 70 億美元土地基礎上土地需求的第三次下降，相當於近 30 億美元的資本削減。

I ask as EPS, right, as you get smoother, your EPS is increasingly going to be a cash flow metric, which affects valuation and -- but it also -- right, if you're going to be generating earnings plus this $3 billion or so in land and whatever comes through WIP, it seems as though you will be forced into a systematic buyback program, which is -- okay, problem. I'm just thinking of some of your peers have gotten deeply into a negative leverage position. Is that something that you're thinking about, avoiding and comment on the cash flow from less owned land?

我問每股收益，對吧，隨著你變得更加平穩，你的每股收益將越來越成為一個現金流量指標，這會影響估值，而且——但它也會——對，如果你要產生收益加上這30 億美元大約在土地和任何透過 WIP 產生的東西上，似乎你將被迫進行系統性的回購計劃，這是——好吧，問題。我只是想到你的一些同行已經陷入了負槓桿的境地。您是否正在考慮、避免和評論這些來自較少擁有土地的現金流？

Jon, did you want to add something to...

喬恩，你想添加一些東西嗎...

Yes, just on the gross margin question, everything we're doing is (inaudible) really driving to efficiencies. A big part of that efficiency is all getting around how do we bring construction costs down for the benefit of affordability and for margins. And so as we track and look at direct construction cost as a percent of revenues that they are following, and that is helping support our margins even though we are aggressively managing the pace.

是的，就毛利率問題而言，我們所做的一切（聽不清楚）確實在提高效率。這種效率的一個重要部分是圍繞如何降低建築成本以提高可負擔性和利潤。因此，當我們追蹤並查看直接建築成本佔他們所遵循的收入的百分比時，這有助於支撐我們的利潤，儘管我們正在積極控制節奏。

Okay. And to your more recent question. We think about the size of our stock buyback. We're very focused on continuing to drive cash flow. You are correct, our land owned and controlled relationship is an area of focus. The year supply is very much an area of focus. You've seen these numbers migrate from much higher to the point that they're at now, and we're not finished. We recognize that there will be an additional level of cash that comes into the company.

好的。還有你最近的問題。我們考慮股票回購的規模。我們非常專注於繼續推動現金流。你是對的，我們的土地擁有和控制關係是一個重點領域。年度供應量是人們非常關注的領域。您已經看到這些數字從更高的水平遷移到現在的水平，但我們還沒有完成。我們認識到公司將會獲得額外的現金水準。

We don't think it puts us in a bad position to end up with negative debt to total cap -- negative net debt to total capital. And we recognize that we will continue to be cash generative. We fully expect that. We think that at year-end, we'll probably be in a better position than we are right now.

我們認為，這不會讓我們處於不利的境地，最終債務總額與資本總額之比為負——淨債務與總資本之比為負。我們認識到我們將繼續產生現金。我們對此充滿期待。我們認為到年底，我們的處境可能會比現在更好。

And so without projecting, let me say that we are very focused on stock buyback and using our capital strategically to position the company well, to have flexibility, to have liquidity for the opportunities that might present themselves for us as markets kind of adjust. But at the same time, our stock buyback program is front and center in the way that we're thinking about our future.

因此，在沒有預測的情況下，我想說的是，我們非常關注股票回購，並策略性地利用我們的資本來為公司做好定位，保持靈活性，為市場調整時可能出現的機會提供流動性。但同時，我們的股票回購計畫是我們思考未來的首要和中心。

And I guess I'd add, Ken, that just operationally, we are focused on getting to the point where net income equals cash flow. We're not there yet, but it is a focus. And then what we do with that capital -- cash flow is -- so answer to that I think it is a real goal for us to have those (inaudible), not there yet, but it's a goal.

肯，我想我要補充一點，就營運而言，我們的重點是達到淨利等於現金流的程度。我們還沒有做到這一點，但這是一個焦點。然後我們用這些資本做什麼——現金流——所以回答這個問題，我認為擁有這些（聽不清楚）是我們的真正目標，雖然還沒有實現，但它是一個目標。

I'll take one last question.

我將回答最後一個問題。

And our final question comes from John Lovallo from UBS.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰·洛瓦洛。

Maybe the first one, just going back to the 10% growth target for next year. Curious to how you're thinking about community count in the context of that 10%? I mean, are you expecting high single-digits, maybe low double-digit community count growth? Or is this really going to be driven more by absorptions?

也許是第一個，只是回到明年 10% 的成長目標。好奇您如何考慮這 10% 的社區數量？我的意思是，您是否預期社區數量會出現高個位數成長，或低兩位數成長？或者這真的會更多地由吸收驅動嗎？

So let me preface this by saying that community count is probably the most difficult part of the number in a projection to get right. So whatever Jon is going to say about community count right now, I'm saying, this is not a projection. This is not guidance. This is just Jon answering your question.

因此，我首先要說的是，社區計數可能是預測中最難準確預測的部分。因此，無論喬恩現在要說什麼有關社區計數的內容，我想說的是，這不是預測。這不是指導。這只是喬恩回答你的問題。

Thank you for that caveat. But it's very true, whether it's municipalities, litigation, it is the most challenging aspect to hit right on the time line. But with that said, we have in place, as Stuart said earlier, a land pipeline that makes us very comfortable to target that 10%, that low double-digit growth. That will come from probably like a high single-digit community count and some increased absorption as we bring on more affordable workforce housing communities across our platform.

謝謝你的警告。但確實如此，無論是市政當局還是訴訟，在時間線上準確掌握都是最具挑戰性的方面。但話雖如此，正如斯圖爾特早些時候所說，我們已經建立了一條土地管道，使我們能夠輕鬆實現 10% 的低兩位數增長目標。這可能來自於高個位數的社區數量，以及隨著我們在平台上引入更多負擔得起的勞動力住房社區而增加的吸收量。

So you can expect that our community count will grow. It will grow somewhere around where our growth expectations are generally. But it's not all about same-store sales. Our business doesn't work perfectly that way. I'm not talking about Lennar's business, I'm talking about the new home business doesn't work perfectly that way. So we expect our community count to grow.

因此，您可以預期我們的社區數量將會成長。它將在我們的整體成長預期附近成長。但這不僅與同店銷售有關。我們的業務並不能以這種方式完美運作。我不是說 Lennar 的業務，我是說新家居業務的運作方式並不完美。因此，我們預計我們的社區數量將會成長。

Understood. Okay. And then maybe just going back quickly to Alan's question, if I can, on Quarterra. There's clearly economic uncertainty out there, but the capital markets do seem to be improving. I mean, there's even a homebuilder IPO out there in the market. I mean, have you guys dusted off the plans here at least on Quarterra? Is this something that could get back in motion here in the near term, maybe any incremental thoughts there?

明白了。好的。如果可以的話，也許我可以快速回到艾倫在 Quarterra 上提出的問題。經濟顯然存在不確定性，但資本市場似乎確實正在改善。我的意思是，市場上甚至還有房屋建築商首次公開募股。我的意思是，你們至少在 Quarterra 上清理過這些計劃了嗎？這是否可以在短期內重新啟動，也許有任何漸進的想法？

Well, the reality is we never really put it on the shelf. We've been working in the background on the way that we might or might not configure Quarterra. And so it's not something to be dust at all. it's just at the right time, we will make the right move, something that works in dovetails with where we're going and how our company is configured.

好吧，現實是我們從來沒有真正把它放在架子上。我們一直在後台以可能或可能不配置 Quarterra 的方式進行工作。所以它根本不是灰塵。在正確的時間，我們將採取正確的行動，這與我們的發展方向以及我們公司的配置方式相吻合。

But we have stopped talking about it because quarter-by-quarter, we don't want to feel like we're missing expectations. We don't want to put something out there that just isn't right or doesn't feel right. The one thing that I will say is that the opportunity to spin or to move off balance sheet some of our assets we think is constructive for return on assets and some of the other calculations, we recognize that opportunity. It will happen at the right time.

但我們已經停止談論這個問題，因為我們不想每個季度都感覺自己沒有達到預期。我們不想發布一些不正確或感覺不正確的東西。我要說的一件事是，我們認為將我們的一些資產剝離或移出資產負債表的機會對於資產回報率和其他一些計算是有建設性的，我們認識到這個機會。它會在正確的時間發生。

And so let's leave it there. I want to thank everybody for joining us. We really look forward to continued execution as we go forward. Very happy with our third quarter, looking forward to reporting year-end and look into 2024. We'll talk next time. Thank you.

所以讓我們把它留在那裡。我要感謝大家加入我們。我們非常期待在前進的過程中繼續執行。對我們的第三季非常滿意，期待年終報告並展望 2024 年。我們下次再談。謝謝。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may disconnect your lines, and please enjoy the rest of your day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您可以斷開線路，然後享受剩下的一天。