Lennar Corp (LEN) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Lennar's second-quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

歡迎參加 Lennar 第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，您可以此時斷開連接。

I will now turn the call over to David Collins for the reading of the forward-looking statements.

現在我將把電話轉給大衛·柯林斯，讓他閱讀前瞻性聲明。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Today's conference call may include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding Lennar's business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, strategies, and prospects. Forward-looking statements represent only Lennar's estimates on the date of this conference call and are not intended to give any assurance as to actual future results.

謝謝大家，大家早安。今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Lennar 業務、財務狀況、營運績效、現金流、策略和前景的陳述。前瞻性陳述僅代表 Lennar 對本次電話會議之日的估計，並非旨在對未來的實際結果提供任何保證。

Because forward-looking statements relate to matters that have not yet occurred, these statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could affect future results and may cause Lennar's actual activities or results to differ materially from the activities and results anticipated in forward-looking statements. These factors include those described in our earnings release and our SEC filings, including those under the caption Risk Factors contained in Lennar's annual report on Form 10-K most recently filed with the SEC. Please note that Lennar assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

由於前瞻性陳述涉及尚未發生的事項，因此這些陳述本質上會受到風險和不確定性的影響。許多因素可能影響未來的結果，並可能導致 Lennar 的實際活動或結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的活動和結果有重大差異。這些因素包括我們的收益發布和 SEC 文件中描述的因素，包括 Lennar 最近向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格年度報告中「風險因素」標題下的因素。請注意，Lennar 不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

I would now like to introduce your host, Mr. Stuart Miller, Executive Chairman. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下你們的主持人，執行主席史都華·米勒先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining today. I am in Miami today, together with Jon Jaffe, our co-CEO and President; Diane Bessette, our Chief Financial Officer; David Collins, who you just heard from, our Controller and Vice President.

謝謝大家，早安，謝謝你們今天加入。我今天在邁阿密，與我們的聯合執行長兼總裁 Jon Jaffe 一起； Diane Bessette，我們的財務長；大衛‧柯林斯（David Collins），您剛剛聽到他的消息，他是我們的財務長兼副總裁。

Bruce Gross is here, our CEO of Lennar Financial Services, and we have a few others as well.

我們的 Lennar Financial Services 執行長 Bruce Gross 也在這裡，其他幾位也在這裡。

As usual, I'm going to give a macro and strategic overview of the company. After my introductory remarks, Jon is going to give an operational overview, update in construction cost, cycle time, and some other operating overview. As usual, Diane is going to give the detailed financial highlights, along with some limited guidance for third quarter and full year 2024. (Event Instructions)

像往常一樣，我將對公司進行宏觀和策略概述。在我的介紹性演講之後，喬恩將提供營運概述、建築成本、週期時間和其他一些營運概述的最新情況。像往常一樣，Diane 將提供詳細的財務亮點，以及 2024 年第三季和全年的一些有限指導。

But before I begin, however, I would like to express on behalf of all of the associates of Lennar, the sadness we all feel for the recent loss of another pioneer of our industry, Don Horton. While we homebuilders compete sometimes aggressively in the field and across geographies, it is always with humble admiration and respect for our competitors. We learn from each other. We have reference for all of their accomplishments.

但在開始之前，我想代表 Lennar 的所有員工表達我們對最近失去我們行業的另一位先驅 Don Horton 的悲傷。雖然我們的住宅建築商有時會在現場和跨地區進行激烈的競爭，但我們始終對我們的競爭對手懷有謙卑的欽佩和尊重。我們互相學習。他們的所有成就我們都有參考。

We learn from their successes and sometimes their failures, and we are pushed to be our very best by their comparative accomplishments. This business is not easy, and those who succeed over years are to be admired.

我們從他們的成功中學習，有時也從他們的失敗中學習，他們的相對成就促使我們做到最好。這個生意並不容易，多年來成功的人是值得欽佩的。

Don was a tremendous success among homebuilders, and his success spanned decades. He climbed from humble beginnings to the greatest heights within our industry. To the associates of D.R. Horton as well as to Don Horton family, we express our most sincere condolences, and we look forward to continuing to live, to learn, to admire, and yes, to compete with the D.R. Horton name as you carry on Don's tremendous legacy.

唐在住宅建築商中取得了巨大的成功，他的成功持續了數十年。他從卑微的出身攀登到了我們這個行業的最高峰。致 D.R. 的同事霍頓以及唐霍頓的家人，我們表示最誠摯的哀悼，我們期待著繼續生活、學習、欽佩，是的，與霍頓先生競爭。霍頓這個名字是因為您繼承了唐的巨大遺產。

With that said, let me begin my remarks today. We're very pleased to report another consistent and solid quarter of operating results for Lennar. We have continued to execute our operating plan effectively throughout the first half of 2024 as we have driven production pace and sales pace in sync, while we have used our margin as a point of adjustment to enable consistent production, even as market conditions have changed.

話雖如此，讓我開始今天的演講。我們非常高興地報告 Lennar 又一個持續穩定的季度營運業績。我們在 2024 年上半年繼續有效地執行我們的營運計劃，因為我們同步推動了生產速度和銷售速度，同時我們利用利潤率作為調整點，以實現穩定的生產，即使市場條件發生了變化。

This program has driven excellent operating results to date, and we have simply never been better positioned as a company from balance sheet to operating strategy, to execution, to be able to adjust to a changing market as it unfolds for the remainder of 2024 and beyond.

迄今為止，該計劃已經帶來了出色的營運業績，作為一家公司，從資產負債表到營運策略，再到執行，我們的定位從未如此出色，能夠適應 2024 年剩餘時間及以後不斷變化的市場。

In the second quarter, we started approximately 21,400 homes. We sold approximately 21,300 homes, and we delivered approximately 19,700 homes, keeping us on target to deliver approximately 80,000 homes for the year. Next quarter, we expect to start [Shell] and deliver similar consistency as we continue to drive a continuously improving, even flow manufacturing model that we believe will continue to enhance our cash flow, our bottom line, as well as our predictability.

第二季度，我們啟動了約 21,400 套房屋。我們售出了約 21,300 套房屋，並交付了約 19,700 套房屋，使我們能夠實現全年交付約 80,000 套房屋的目標。下個季度，我們預計將啟動[殼牌]並提供類似的一致性，因為我們將繼續推動持續改進、均勻的流程製造模型，我們相信該模型將繼續增強我們的現金流、利潤和可預測性。

We've continued to target a consistent production and growth rate, in order to maintain volume, minimize production costs, maintain even flow production and sales, all in order to drive cash flow, effective capital allocation, and higher returns. Our primary goal is to migrate to a pure-play, asset-light manufacturing model that will be supported by a durable, just-in-time home site delivery program that will enable simultaneous growth and cash flow.

我們繼續以穩定的生產和成長率為目標，以維持產量，最大限度地降低生產成本，保持產銷均勻，所有這些都是為了推動現金流、有效的資本配置和更高的回報。我們的主要目標是轉向純粹的輕資產製造模式，該模式將得到持久、及時的家庭現場交付計劃的支持，從而實現同步增長和現金流。

We believe that a cash flow enabled capital allocation strategy will drive higher shareholder returns, higher returns on assets, and ultimately, higher returns on equity. As we migrate to our desired end state, margin is the springing mechanism that enables this all to happen.

我們相信，基於現金流量的資本配置策略將帶來更高的股東回報、更高的資產回報，最終帶來更高的股本回報。當我們遷移到我們想要的最終狀態時，邊際是讓這一切發生的彈性機制。

This quarter, our margin was somewhat higher than expected at 22.6%, up from 21.8% last quarter. Next quarter, we expect our margin to be approximately 23% depending on market conditions. And for the full year, we remain focused on driving margin to be approximately the same as last year's full-year margin of 23.3%.

本季度，我們的利潤率略高於預期，為 22.6%，高於上季的 21.8%。下個季度，我們預計利潤率約為 23%，具體取決於市場狀況。對於全年而言，我們仍然致力於將利潤率提高到與去年 23.3% 的全年利潤率大致相同。

While we understand that we will require -- that that will require a substantially higher fourth-quarter margin, that accomplishment is partially embedded in our backlog, while as I have said before, the rest of that story will depend on market conditions, interest rates, and consumer confidence as we go through the remainder of the year. We will see.

雖然我們知道我們將需要大幅提高第四季度的利潤率，但這一成就部分包含在我們的積壓訂單中，而正如我之前所說，故事的其餘部分將取決於市場狀況、利率以及今年剩餘時間裡的消費者信心。我們會看到。

While we have been refining our operating platform, we've continued to drive strong cash flow and have allocated over $600 million to repurchase approximately 3.8 million shares of stock, and additionally, to repay over $550 million of senior debt as we continue to improve our balance sheet with a homebuilding debt to total capital ratio of just 7.7%.

在我們不斷完善營運平台的同時，我們繼續推動強勁的現金流，並撥款超過6 億美元用於回購約380 萬股股票，此外，隨著我們繼續改善我們的業務，我們還償還了超過5.5 億美元的優先債務。

While we continue to hold a sizable $3.6 billion of cash on our books, we are crafting our strategy for strategic capital allocation in pursuit of our structural objectives, which I will discuss further in just a few minutes. But let me briefly address the economic environment.

雖然我們帳上繼續持有 36 億美元的大量現金，但我們正在製定策略資本配置策略，以實現我們的結構性目標，我將在幾分鐘內進一步討論這一目標。但讓我簡單談談經濟環境。

Overall, the macroeconomic environment remains relatively constructive for homebuilders. There are challenges and there are opportunities. The demand for housing remains strong, limited by affordability, interest rates, and sometimes wavering consumer confidence. Additionally, the chronic housing shortage driven by over a decade of underproduction of housing stock is additionally problematic for families seeking affordable or attainable supply.

總體而言，宏觀經濟環境對房屋建築商來說仍然相對有利。有挑戰，也有機遇。住房需求依然強勁，但受到負擔能力、利率以及有時消費者信心動搖的限制。此外，十多年來住房存量生產不足導致的長期住房短缺對於尋求負擔得起或可獲得供應的家庭來說也是一個問題。

Demand remains robust, if it can be supplied and an attainable price point, with interest rate support that enables the consumer to transact. Through our second quarter, interest rate started lower and felt constructive at approximately 6.75% as the market was adjusting to a new normal. Then through the quarter, the rates began a gradual climb to 7.3% before dropping again as the quarter ending.

如果能夠供應且價格可達到，且利率支持使消費者能夠進行交易，那麼需求仍然強勁。在第二季度，隨著市場正在適應新常態，利率開始走低，並保持在約 6.75% 的建設性水平。然後整個季度，利率開始逐漸攀升至 7.3%，然後在季度結束時再次下降。

Concurrently, consumers remained in buoy. They are confident that they will remain in buoy and they believe that their compensation will rise as well. This is most often the foundation of a very strong housing market. But the chronic supply shortage, the impact of interest rates on affordability, as well as persistent and stubborn inflation have moderated housing market strength.

與此同時，消費者依然樂觀。他們有信心繼續保持良好狀態，並且相信自己的薪水也會上漲。這通常是非常強勁的房地產市場的基礎。但長期的供應短缺、利率對負擔能力的影響以及持續且頑固的通貨膨脹削弱了房地產市場的強勢。

In response, new homebuilders have worked out incentive structures that range from interest rate buydown to closing cost pickups to price reductions designed to meet the purchaser at their intersection of need and affordability. Those incentives have increased and decreased as interest rates have moved up and down.

作為回應，新的住宅建築商制定了一系列激勵結構，從利率下調到成交成本上升，再到旨在滿足買家需求和承受能力的降價。隨著利率的上下波動，這些激勵措施也隨之增加和減少。

Homebuilders, particularly those with strong balance sheets and ready access to capital, have been able to adjust, capture demand, and drive efficiencies by using incentives to reduce the affordability constraints and enable purchasers to transact.

房屋建築商，特別是那些擁有強大資產負債表和易於獲得資本的房屋建築商，已經能夠透過利用激勵措施減少負擔能力限制並使購買者能夠進行交易來調整、捕捉需求並提高效率。

Against this backdrop, in our second quarter, we have continued to execute our core operating strategy. That strategy has been to refine a manufacturing production model that is pure-play homebuilding and land light, asset light. And simply put, that is what we are refining.

在此背景下，第二季度我們繼續執行我們的核心營運策略。該策略旨在完善一種純粹的住宅建築、輕土地、輕資產的製造生產模式。簡而言之，這就是我們正在完善的。

As I noted last quarter, we have begun -- we have been refining our manufacturing model. We have also been actively migrating to a pure-play and land-light operating structure across our homebuilding platform and each of our 40 homebuilding divisions.

正如我在上個季度指出的那樣，我們已經開始完善我們的製造模式。我們也積極在我們的住宅建築平台和 40 個住宅建築部門中轉向純經營和輕土地營運結構。

So start with manufacturing. We've continued to refine our manufacturing platform, that is maintain production and sales pace, while we continue to engineer our homes for efficiency and volume. Driving volume enables us to offer more attainable product.

所以從製造開始。我們繼續完善我們的製造平台，即保持生產和銷售速度，同時我們繼續設計我們的房屋以提高效率和產量。提高銷售量使我們能夠提供更容易實現的產品。

We, as needed, supply to the market. We meet the needs of the consumer. And we contribute to building a balanced, and therefore, healthier housing market. In doing so, we have enhanced our inventory turn and grown volume as we generate substantial cash flow. The consistency of our production and sales program across our platform, together with constructive capital allocation, enabled us to simultaneously enhance shareholder returns, returns on inventory, and ultimately, return on equity.

我們根據需要向市場供應。我們滿足消費者的需求。我們致力於建立一個平衡的、因此更健康的房屋市場。在此過程中，我們產生了大量現金流，從而提高了庫存週轉率並增加了銷售量。我們整個平台生產和銷售計劃的一致性，加上建設性的資本配置，使我們能夠同時提高股東回報、庫存回報，並最終提高股本回報。

Let me turn to pure play. We are a homebuilder that builds affordable housing in strategic markets that fill the chronic supply shortage. We will continue to reduce exposure to all non-core assets. We are intensifying our focus on producing affordable and attainable products across our platform.

讓我轉向純粹的遊戲。我們是一家住宅建築商，在戰略市場建造經濟適用房，以填補長期的供應短缺。我們將繼續減少所有非核心資產的曝險。我們正在加強對在我們平台上生產價格實惠且可獲得的產品的關注。

Land is more expensive. Impact, these are getting more expensive, and labor and material costs have been rising as well. We can only reduce the cost of housing by increasing productivity through efficient use of our operation. Our focus has been on doing just that. We are building more consistent products that we call our core products that are carefully value-engineered. And we are using our start pace to refine an engineered production cycle, enabling us to reduce cycle time and to work with our trade partners to build efficiencies in logistics and the way that we run our community production.

土地更貴。影響，這些變得越來越貴，勞動力和材料成本也在上漲。我們只能透過有效利用我們的營運來提高生產力，從而降低住房成本。我們的重點就是這樣做。我們正在打造更一致的產品，我們稱之為經過精心價值設計的核心產品。我們正在利用我們的啟動速度來完善工程生產週期，使我們能夠縮短週期時間，並與我們的貿易夥伴合作，提高物流效率和我們運行社區生產的方式。

We are building attainable homes for primary purchasers who can afford a down payment and qualify for a mortgage. And as market conditions dictate, we have and will use incentives to enable primary purchasers to purchase and achieve home ownership.

我們正在為能夠負擔首付並有資格獲得抵押貸款的主要購買者建造可實現的住房。根據市場條件，我們已經並將使用激勵措施，使主要購買者能夠購買並實現房屋所有權。

We have also continued to work -- continued working on additional product approaches, can help build a more-healthy housing market. We have intensified our focus on build to rent, community scale, and single family for rent scattered homes across markets. We believe that we can and need to build additional production for professionally owned housing that can fill an important additional need.

我們也繼續努力——繼續致力於其他產品方法，可以幫助建立一個更健康的房屋市場。我們加強了對以租代建、社區規模和在市場上分散出租的單戶住宅的關注。我們相信，我們能夠且需要為專業人士擁有的住房建造額外的產品，以滿足重要的額外需求。

Those professional purchasers need cost efficiencies in today's interest rate environment in order to make their rents attainable and we can provide that. There are many families who are building their future and aspire to single-family lifestyle with backyards, schools, and parks, but who can't yet afford a down payment or don't have the credit characteristics to qualify the mortgage that they need.

這些專業買家需要在當今的利率環境下提高成本效率，才能獲得可負擔的租金，而我們可以提供這一點。許多家庭正在建立自己的未來，渴望擁有後院、學校和公園的單戶生活方式，但他們還無力支付首付款，或不具備獲得所需抵押貸款的信用特徵。

Institutional buyers fill that void for those families. Many have criticized the professionally owned market and the investor class that competes with primary homeowners to purchase product for rentals. This is quad thinking.

機構買家填補了這些家庭的空白。許多人批評專業市場和與主要房主競爭購買租賃產品的投資者階層。這就是四元思維。

We are also engaged in repurposing our blue chip multifamily platform to build attainable rental product in an off-balance sheet configuration. We will build a singular product, another core product called our Emblem series. It will be built by our homebuilding division but will be built with private equity capital.

我們也致力於重新利用我們的藍籌多戶平台，以資產負債表外配置建立可實現的租賃產品。我們將打造一個單一的產品，另一個核心產品，稱為我們的徽章系列。它將由我們的住宅建築部門建造，但將由私募股權資本建造。

We have a strong history of successfully building multifamily products across the country. We have been building those products in and off balance sheet configuration, and we expect to continue to build this vital attainable product without encumbering our balance sheet.

我們在全國範圍內成功建造多戶型產品方面擁有悠久的歷史。我們一直在資產負債表內和表外建構這些產品，我們希望繼續建構這個重要的可實現產品，而不會影響我們的資產負債表。

Concurrently, we are repatriating capital that has been deployed in prior multifamily invasions. We are under contract to sell the assets of LMV Fund I. There, there are multiple buyers and we are working through the closing process of each asset with those buyers. We expect the assets will close throughout the second half of 2024.

同時，我們正在遣返先前在多戶家庭入侵中部署的資金。我們簽訂了出售 LMV Fund I 資產的合約。我們預計這些資產將在 2024 年下半年完成。

Also, as we continue to stay laser focused on our pure-play and asset-light strategy of generating cash and increasing returns, we are regularly reviewing the best strategy for other multifamily assets that are on book, and we may decide to monetize additional assets also in the second half of 2024. On a combined basis, these transactions could result in cash proceeds of approximately $250 million in the second half of the year.

此外，隨著我們繼續專注於產生現金和增加回報的純業務和輕資產策略，我們會定期審查帳面上其他多戶資產的最佳策略，並且我們可能決定將額外資產貨幣化同樣是在2024 年下半年。

So let me turn to just in time. We have been complementing our manufacturing model with a durable, just-in-time finished homesite delivery system. Every home that is going to be built, needs a homesite with a permit. And those homesites need to be optioned and off balance sheet until we are ready to go.

那麼就讓我來談談恰逢其時吧。我們一直在用耐用、準時的成品現場交付系統來補充我們的製造模式。每棟要建造的房屋都需要擁有許可證的宅基地。在我們準備好出發之前，這些宅基地需要進行選擇並移出資產負債表。

We continue to focus on a just-in-time delivery program for land just like we have for lumber and appliances. And we continue to make excellent progress in this regard. While we have always executed option land deals with third-party developers, those deals are not always available and there are no developers in many of our markets.

我們繼續專注於土地的準時交付計劃，就像木材和電器的準時交付計劃一樣。我們在這方面繼續取得巨大進展。雖然我們一直與第三方開發商執行選擇權土地交易，但這些交易並不總是可用，而且我們的許多市場都沒有開發商。

We only become structurally and durably land light and asset light, by both negotiating option deals with landowners and developers and also creating structured land strategies with private equity capital or permanent capital. Accordingly, we have worked with a series of private equity partners to create a home site purchase platform where land is held and developed and ultimately delivered on a rolling option basis through the manufacture as homes are ready to be started.

我們只有透過與土地所有者和開發商談判選擇權交易，並利用私募股權資本或永久資本製定結構化土地策略，才能在結構上、持久地實現輕土地和輕資產。因此，我們與一系列私募股權合作夥伴合作創建了一個住宅用地購買平台，在該平台上持有和開發土地，並最終在房屋準備開工時透過製造以滾動選擇的方式交付。

This platform is a backstop for purchased land to be developed and delivered just in time to the manufacturer without land risks to that manufacturer. By consistently focusing on our land-light strategy, we have materially enhanced and generated consistent cash flow through the ups and downs of interest rate changes and we have enhanced our balance sheet and liquidity.

該平台是購買土地開發的後盾，並及時交付給製造商，而不會給製造商帶來土地風險。透過始終專注於輕土地策略，我們在利率變化的起伏中顯著增強並產生了持續的現金流，並改善了我們的資產負債表和流動性。

Our balance sheet, as I noted earlier, is situated with a 7.7% debt-to-capital ratio -- homebuilding debt-to-capital ratio with $3.6 billion of cash on hand and zero dollars being drawn on our revolver. We have the flexibility to allocate capital strategically, first, of course, to grow, while also retiring debt, paying appropriate dividends, and repurchasing shares of Lennar stock.

正如我之前指出的，我們的資產負債表的債務與資本比率（房屋建築債務與資本比率）為 7.7%，手頭現金為 36 億美元，而我們的左輪手槍提取的美元為零。我們可以靈活地策略性地分配資本，首先當然是為了成長，同時還清債務、支付適當的股息以及回購 Lennar 股票。

We are aware that many have suggested that we have accumulated too much cash on our balance sheet and our leverage is very limited, which limits the ability of our returns to move higher. While we have understood the concern, we have remained patient as we have evolved, not just the migration to land-light configuration, but also have remained focus on the long-term durability of the structures involved.

我們知道，許多人認為我們的資產負債表上累積了太多現金，而我們的槓桿非常有限，這限制了我們回報率上升的能力。雖然我們理解這種擔憂，但隨著我們的發展，我們仍然保持耐心，不僅遷移到陸地光配置，而且仍然專注於所涉及結構的長期耐用性。

Private equity capital can be fickle. By driving volume through these programs, we have gained advantage insight into the refined workings of our strategic land program. Although we have a number of constructive partners in this regard, I would like to especially thank Ryan Mollett and Angelo Gordon for being an incredible and selfless partner in helping to evolve these programs over the past years.

私募股權資本可能變化無常。透過這些計劃增加銷量，我們獲得了對戰略土地計劃的精細運作的優勢洞察。儘管我們在這方面有許多建設性的合作夥伴，但我要特別感謝 Ryan Mollett 和 Angelo Gordon，他們是令人難以置信且無私的合作夥伴，在過去幾年中幫助發展了這些項目。

It has been truly invaluable in execution and evolution, and of course, never a mercenary in any engagement. With Ryan's help, the underlying plumbing system for the land strategies has been refined and questions have been answered as to the durability of the relationships that make up the counterparty relationship with the homebuilding partner.

它在執行和演變方面確實具有無價的價值，當然，它在任何參與中都不是唯利是圖的。在瑞安的幫助下，土地戰略的基礎管道系統得到了完善，並且關於構成與住宅建築合作夥伴的交易對手關係的關係的持久性的問題也得到了解答。

Building on our experience, on our last earnings call, we announced that we were rekindling our focus on a strategic spin-off of most of our remaining land in order to create a permanent capital vehicle that can option developed homesites to Lennar, recycle capital into new homesites, and distribute market-appropriate returns to shareholders.

根據我們的經驗，在上次財報電話會議上，我們宣布我們將重新專注於對大部分剩餘土地進行策略性分拆，以創建一個永久資本工具，可以將已開發的住宅區選擇給Lennar，將資本回收到新址，並分配給股東適合市場的回報。

I am pleased to inform you that we have made substantial progress over the last 90 days and we confidentially submitted a draft registration statement to the SEC a few weeks ago. We are currently looking at approximately a $6 billion to $8 billion of land that we expect to spin off into a new public company with no associated debt.

我很高興地通知您，我們在過去 90 天內取得了實質進展，並在幾週前向 SEC 秘密提交了一份註冊聲明草案。我們目前正在考慮價值約 60 億至 80 億美元的土地，預計將其分拆給一家新的上市公司，且不產生任何相關債務。

The goal of the spin-off is to accelerate our land-light strategy, which would allow for off-balance sheet treatment of the land's assets. We are excited about the opportunities that we believe the spin-off will bring us through the innovations that we have developed for the operation of the spun-off entity.

分拆的目標是加速我們的輕土地策略，這將允許對土地資產進行表外處理。我們對機會感到興奮，我們相信分拆將為我們帶來為分拆實體營運開發的創新。

Following the spin-off, the new public company will be completely independent from Lennar. Lennar will have option purchase agreement to purchase back finished home site on a just-in-time basis. Our team led by Fred Rothman has been fully dedicated to bringing this project to life as soon as we can. But we are still early in the process and there is no specific timeline to completion or guarantee that the transaction will be completed.

分拆後，新的上市公司將完全獨立於 Lennar。 Lennar 將簽訂選擇權購買協議，及時購回已完工的住宅用地。我們由弗雷德·羅斯曼 (Fred Rothman) 領導的團隊一直致力於盡快實現該專案。但我們仍處於過程的早期階段，沒有具體的完成時間表或保證交易將會完成。

Because of the ongoing review by the SEC, we cannot comment further on the spin-off, but we look forward to providing you with an update on progress and timing in the future. After the spin-off, the new company would be another bucket of capital, in other words, additive, consistent, and compatible with other relationships that have existed and will continue to thrive alongside Lennar.

由於 SEC 正在進行審查，我們無法對分拆進一步發表評論，但我們期待為您提供未來進展和時間表的最新資訊。分拆後，新公司將成為又一桶資本，換句話說，是可附加的、一致的，並且與已經存在的其他關係兼容，並將繼續與 Lennar 一起蓬勃發展。

Such a transaction would distribute capital to shareholders, it would reduce inventory on Lennar's books, and it would provide permanent, dependable capital for future land options. Our balance sheet would remain very strong with consistent earnings and cash flow to continue to pay down debt and to repurchase stock.

此類交易將向股東分配資本，減少 Lennar 帳簿上的庫存，並為未來的土地選擇提供永久、可靠的資本。我們的資產負債表將保持非常強勁，具有持續的利潤和現金流，以繼續償還債務和回購股票。

So let me conclude and say, at Lennar, we are continuing to modernize and upgrade the Lennar operating platform as we drive consistent production and sales. It has been a busy and productive quarter, and we have continued to execute in the short term while we build our platform for continued and future success.

最後，我想說的是，在 Lennar，我們將繼續對 Lennar 操作平台進行現代化改造和升級，同時推動一致的生產和銷售。這是一個忙碌而富有成效的季度，我們繼續執行短期任務，同時為未來的持續成功建立平台。

Our second quarter of 2024 has been another strategic and operational success for our company. While market conditions have remained challenging, we have consistently learned and found ways to address market needs. We know the demand is strong and there is a chronic housing supply shortage that needs to be filled. We will continue to drive production to meet the housing shortage that we know persists across our markets.

2024 年第二季是我們公司策略和營運的又一次成功。儘管市場狀況仍然充滿挑戰，但我們不斷學習並找到滿足市場需求的方法。我們知道需求強勁，長期有住房供應短缺問題需要填補。我們將繼續推動生產，以滿足我們所知的市場上持續存在的住房短缺問題。

With that said, as interest rates subside and normalize and if the Fed is actually going to begin to cut rates, we believe a pent-up demand will be activated and we will be well prepared. If not, we will continue to produce volume and add to market supply. For that, we are well prepared.

話雖如此，隨著利率下降並正常化，如果聯準會真的要開始降息，我們相信被壓抑的需求將被激活，我們將做好充分準備。如果沒有，我們將繼續生產並增加市場供應。為此，我們已經做好了充分的準備。

Even though higher rates have remained sticky, strong pent-up demand has found ways to access the housing market. Given consistent execution, we are extremely well positioned for even greater success as strong demand for affordable offerings continues to see short supply. Perhaps, most importantly, our extraordinarily strong balance sheet affords us flexibility and opportunity to consider and execute upon thoughtful innovation for our future.

儘管較高的利率仍然存在黏性，但被壓抑的強勁需求已找到進入房地產市場的方法。由於對價格實惠的產品的強勁需求持續出現供應短缺，只要執行一致，我們就能夠取得更大的成功。也許最重要的是，我們異常強勁的資產負債表為我們提供了靈活性和機會，可以為我們的未來考慮和執行深思熟慮的創新。

We will focus on our manufacturing model and continue to execute. We will focus on our pure-play business model and reduce exposure to non-core assets. We will continue to drive to just-in-time homesites delivery and an asset-light balance sheet. And we will continue to allocate capital to growth, debt retirement, and stock repurchases as appropriate. We have the luxury to execute flawlessly in the short term while we continue to return capital to our shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, while we also, and I emphasize also, pursue strategic distribution to shareholders that fortifies our future.

我們將專注於我們的製造模式並繼續執行。我們將專注於純業務模式，並減少非核心資產的曝險。我們將繼續推動準時住宅交付和輕資產資產負債表。我們將繼續酌情將資本分配給成長、債務償還和股票回購。我們有能力在短期內完美執行，同時我們繼續透過股利和股票回購向股東返還資本，同時我也強調，我們也追求向股東進行策略分配，以鞏固我們的未來。

We are clearly on an enviable position. As I look forward to a successful 2024, we are well positioned and expect to see much more of the same. We are confident that by design, we will continue to grow, perform, and drive Lennar to new levels of consistent and predictable performance. We are guiding to 20,500 to 21,000 closings next quarter with approximately a 23% margin. And we do expect to deliver approximately 80,000 homes this year with a little over a 23% margin.

我們顯然處於令人羨慕的地位。我期待 2024 年取得成功，我們已做好充分準備，並期待看到更多相同的事情。我們相信，透過設計，我們將繼續發展、表現並推動 Lennar 達到一致和可預測性能的新水平。我們預計下季成交量為 20,500 至 21,000 份，利潤率約為 23%。我們預計今年將交付約 8 萬套房屋，利潤率略高於 23%。

We also expect to repurchase in excess of $2 billion of stock in 2024 as we continue to drive very strong cash flow. We look forward to a very strong year. And for that, I want to thank to extraordinary associates of Lennar for their tremendous focus, effort, and talent.

隨著我們繼續推動非常強勁的現金流，我們也預計在 2024 年回購超過 20 億美元的股票。我們期待著非常強勁的一年。為此，我要感謝 Lennar 傑出的同事們的巨大專注、努力和才華。

And with that, let me turn it over to Jon.

接下來，讓我把它交給喬恩。

Good morning. As you heard from Stuart, our operational teams at Lennar continue to refine and improve on the execution of our core operating strategies. Each quarter, our divisions further refined elements of these strategies and how they can more effectively work in concert. We are laser focused on creating an even-flow, production-first homebuilder designed to deliver maximum results.

早安.正如您從史都華那裡聽到的那樣，我們 Lennar 的營運團隊不斷完善和改進我們核心營運策略的執行。每個季度，我們的部門都會進一步完善這些策略的要素以及它們如何更有效地協同工作。我們專注於創建一個流程均勻、生產第一的住宅建築商，旨在提供最大的成果。

As part of this process, Stuart, myself, and our regional presidents traveled to our divisions, meeting with their management teams after the close of each quarter to review each of the elements of our operating strategy. In fact, we're in the middle of these reviews right now, taking today off, of course, to address our earnings but back at it tomorrow.

作為這個過程的一部分，史都華、我本人和我們的區域總裁前往我們的部門，在每個季度結束後與他們的管理團隊會面，審查我們營運策略的每個要素。事實上，我們現在正在進行這些審查，今天休息，當然是為了解決我們的收入問題，但明天再回來。

In these meetings, we learn together what is working and what needs improvement. With the end goal in mind of even-flow production, we have built a strong sense of confidence and reliability in results driven by selling the right homes at the right pace.

在這些會議中，我們共同了解哪些是有效的，哪些是需要改進的。考慮到均勻生產的最終目標，我們對以正確的速度銷售正確的房屋所推動的結果建立了強烈的信心和可靠性。

Every day, our divisions learn from their engagement with Lennar machine, constantly adjusting and trying new tactics. The machine produces information in the form of dashboards for analysis and decision-making. There is a continuous feedback loop as leads move from the top of the funnel, through the funnel, and ultimately, to a sale. This review enables lower customer acquisition costs while also improving the customer experience.

每天，我們的部門都會從與 Lennar 機器的接觸中學習，不斷調整和嘗試新策略。機器以儀表板的形式產生訊息，用於分析和決策。當銷售線索從漏斗頂部穿過漏斗並最終到達銷售時，存在一個持續的反饋循環。此次審查可降低客戶獲取成本，同時改善客戶體驗。

Again, this quarter, our operating results produced starts that were evenly matched and are projected to be evenly matched again in the third quarter. We will continue to refine this process of matching sales and production pace, delivering even more dependable and predictable production, which provides maximum benefit to our supply chain and our trade partners.

同樣，本季我們的營運業績開工情況旗鼓相當，預計第三季將再次旗鼓相當。我們將繼續完善匹配銷售和生產節奏的流程，提供更可靠和可預測的生產，從而為我們的供應鏈和貿易夥伴提供最大的利益。

Last quarter, I described to you how our divisions hold machine Monday meetings to optimize the selling of the right homes at the right price, based on the prior week's activities. Our operating teams review dashboards, comparing actual results to the planned activity, and make adjustments in real time to marketing plans for the upcoming week.

上個季度，我向您描述了我們的部門如何根據前一周的活動召開週一機器會議，以優化以合適的價格銷售合適的房屋。我們的營運團隊審查儀表板，將實際結果與計劃活動進行比較，並對下週的行銷計劃進行即時調整。

Currently, these meetings are focused on how to cost effectively drive higher-quality leads, what we refer to as less hay and more needles. In turn, this reduces the overall number of leads we interact with delivering more higher-quality leads to our team. These improvements will result in a better customer experience, higher conversion rates, and lower customer acquisition costs.

目前，這些會議的重點是如何以經濟有效的方式推動更高品質的銷售線索，我們稱之為少乾草多針。反過來，這減少了我們與之互動的潛在客戶總數，從而為我們的團隊提供了更多更高品質的潛在客戶。這些改進將帶來更好的客戶體驗、更高的轉換率和更低的客戶獲取成本。

In our second quarter as interest rates fluctuated around 7%, this process informed us as to where we have pricing power or where we need the buy-down of interest rates and other incentives to achieve the desired pace. Delivering pace resulted or achievement pace resulted in ending the quarter with an average of less than one unsold completed home per community and enabled our growth of 19% in sales and 15% in deliveries year over year.

第二季度，利率在 7% 左右波動，這個過程告訴我們我們在哪裡擁有定價權，或者我們在哪裡需要降低利率和其他激勵措施以達到預期的速度。交貨速度或成就速度導致本季度末每個社區平均未售出的已完工房屋少於一棟，使我們的銷售額同比增長 19%，交付量同比增長 15%。

Our sales pace of 5.7 homes per community in Q2 is up from the pace of 4.8 last year. This increase was, by design, the match to start pace of 5.8 homes per community in Q2. To match sales pace to production pace, means the sales pace we achieved vary across our markets. We're able to flex sales pace faster or slower, as needed, in order to match production on a community-by-community basis.

第二季每個社區銷售 5.7 套住宅，高於去年的 4.8 套。按照設計，這一增長與第二季度每個社區 5.8 套住房的起步速度相匹配。為了使銷售速度與生產速度相匹配，意味著我們在不同市場上實現的銷售速度有所不同。我們能夠根據需要更快或更慢地調整銷售節奏，以便在各個社區的基礎上匹配生產。

Next, I'll discuss cycle time and construction costs. As I mentioned, by continuously improving the way we execute this game plan of predictable and reliable production, we deepen the partnerships with our trade partners. We focus on maintaining both a high volume, and importantly, a consistent volume of homes under construction that allows our trade partners to reduce their input costs despite the inflationary macro environment.

接下來，我將討論週期時間和施工成本。正如我所提到的，透過不斷改進我們執行可預測和可靠生產的遊戲計劃的方式，我們加深了與貿易夥伴的夥伴關係。我們專注於保持高數量，更重要的是保持穩定的在建房屋數量，使我們的貿易夥伴能夠在通貨膨脹的宏觀環境下降低投入成本。

This strategy, along with value engineering and SKU rationalization, produces many efficiencies, benefiting our trade partners. By consistently starting homes, the net interest rates rose during the quarter. We increased our starts by 9% from the prior year and [78%] sequentially from Q1. For the second quarter, cycle time decreased by 4 days sequentially from Q1 down to 150 days on average for single-family homes, a 30% decrease year over year. We expect to see cycle times continue to improve as we become increasingly more efficient.

這項策略與價值工程和 SKU 合理化相結合，提高了效率，使我們的貿易夥伴受益。由於持續開工建設，本季淨利率上升。我們的開工率比去年增加了 9%，比第一季連續增加了 [78%]。第二季度，單戶住宅的週期時間比第一季連續減少 4 天，降至 150 天，年減 30%。隨著我們變得越來越高效，我們預計週期時間會繼續縮短。

Looking at the second quarter, as expected, our construction costs also decreased sequentially from Q1 by about 1% and on a year-over-year basis by about 9%. Moving forward, to drive further efficiencies and cost reductions, we are making significant progress on utilizing highly valued engineered home plans, which as Stuart mentioned, we call it, core product strategy. These are our first starts with these homes in Texas late in the second quarter and we'll see expanded start throughout Texas and Florida in the third quarter, with first deliveries in our fourth quarter.

從第二季來看，正如預期的那樣，我們的建築成本也比第一季環比下降了約1%，年減了約9%。展望未來，為了進一步提高效率和降低成本，我們在利用高價值的工程家居計劃方面取得了重大進展，正如史都華所提到的，我們稱之為核心產品策略。這是我們在第二季末在德州首次開工的這些房屋，我們將在第三季在德州和佛羅裡達州擴大開工，並在第四季首次交付。

The initial success of these core plans is seen as we engage with our trade partners and believe this will improve our position as a builder of choice. The reduced cost and time to build these core plans will help us achieve the goal of delivering more attainable housing to meet the needs of the homebuying consumer.

當我們與貿易夥伴接觸時，這些核心計劃取得了初步成功，並相信這將提高我們作為首選建築商的地位。建構這些核心計畫的成本和時間的減少將有助於我們實現提供更多可實現住房的目標，以滿足購屋消費者的需求。

Next, I'll discuss our land-light strategy. In the second quarter, we continue to effectively work with our strategic land and land bank partners with a purchase plan on our behalf and then deliver just-in-time homesites to our homebuilding machine. In the second quarter, about 90% of our $1.7 billion or approximately 16,000 home sites acquired in the quarter were finished homesites purchased from these various land structures.

接下來，我將討論我們的陸光策略。在第二季度，我們繼續與戰略土地和土地銀行合作夥伴有效合作，代表我們制定購買計劃，然後向我們的住宅建築機器及時交付住宅用地。第二季度，我們在本季購買的 17 億美元或約 16,000 個住宅用地中，約 90% 是從這些不同的土地結構中購買的成品住宅。

This drove further progress in the quarter of our supply of owned homesites has improved to 1.2 years, down from 1.7 years and controlled homesites percentage increased to 79% from 70% year over year. These improvements in the execution of our operating strategies resulting in reduced cycle time and less land owned has increased our cash flow as well as improved our inventory churn, which now stands at 1.6 versus 1.3 last year, a 23% increase.

這推動了本季我們自有宅基地供應的進一步進展，從 1.7 年縮短至 1.2 年，受控宅基地百分比從年比 70% 增加到 79%。我們在營運策略執行方面的這些改進導致週期時間縮短和擁有的土地減少，從而增加了我們的現金流並改善了我們的庫存流失率，庫存流失率目前為1.6，與去年的1.3 相比，增加了23%。

The second-quarter demonstrated ongoing progress in the execution of each of the strategy Stuart and I reviewed. We started with the focus on Lennar marketing and sales machine, then to our production, and onto land strategies. We focus on improving and connecting these strategies together, driving even more consistency and improvement.

第二季表明，史都華和我審查的每項策略的執行都取得了持續進展。我們首先關注 Lennar 行銷和銷售機器，然後專注於生產，最後專注於土地策略。我們專注於改進這些策略並將其連接在一起，從而推動更多的一致性和改進。

Refining these currencies means that change is constant, and the focus and hard work to execute is consistent. Yes, change can be challenging, but our associates are leaning into each of these strategies, embracing the challenges and are executing at even higher levels.

精煉這些貨幣意味著變化是恆定的，並且執行的重點和努力工作是一致的。是的，變革可能具有挑戰性，但我們的員工正在深入研究每項策略，迎接挑戰，並在更高的水平上執行。

I also want to thank our associates for their commitment to this effort. And now, I'd like to turn it over to Diane.

我還要感謝我們的同事對這項工作的承諾。現在，我想把它交給黛安。

Thank you, Jon, and good morning, everyone. Stuart and Jon have provided a great deal of color regarding our homebuilding performance. So therefore, I'm going to spend a few minutes on the results of our financial services operations, summarize our balance sheet highlights, and then provide estimates for Q3.

謝謝你，喬恩，大家早安。史都華和喬恩為我們的住宅建築表現提供了大量的色彩。因此，我將花幾分鐘時間介紹我們的金融服務營運結果，總結我們的資產負債表要點，然後提供第三季的估計。

So starting with financial services, for the second quarter, our financial services team had operating earnings of $146 million. The strong earnings were primarily driven by an increase in homebuilding volume and a higher capture rate. Additionally, there is a constant drumbeat to embrace technology to continue to find ways to run a more efficient business.

因此，從金融服務開始，第二季我們的金融服務團隊的營業收入為 1.46 億美元。強勁的利潤主要是由房屋建築量的增加和捕獲率的提高所推動的。此外，人們不斷鼓吹擁抱技術，繼續尋找更有效率的業務運作方法。

Our financial services team is intensely dedicated to providing a great customer experience for each homebuyer and has created true partnerships with our homebuilding teams to best accomplish that goal. That partnership is clearly reflected in our solid results.

我們的金融服務團隊致力於為每位購屋者提供良好的客戶體驗，並與我們的住宅建築團隊建立了真正的合作夥伴關係，以最好地實現這一目標。這種夥伴關係清楚地反映在我們的堅實成果中。

Now turning to our balance sheet, this quarter, once again, we were steadfast in our determination to turn our inventory and generate cash by maintaining production and pricing homes to market with the goal of delivering as many homes as possible to meet housing demand. The result of these actions was that we ended the quarter with $3.6 billion of cash and no borrowings on our $2.2 billion revolving credit facility. This provided total liquidity of $5.8 billion.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表，本季我們再次堅定地決心透過維持生產和按市場定價房屋來扭轉庫存並產生現金，目標是交付盡可能多的房屋以滿足住房需求。這些行動的結果是，我們在本季結束時擁有 36 億美元的現金，且 22 億美元的循環信貸額度沒有任何借款。這提供了 58 億美元的總流動性。

As a result of our continued focus on balance sheet efficiency and reducing our capital investments, we once again made significant progress on our goal of becoming land light. At quarter end, as Jon indicated, our years improved to 1.2 years from 1.7 years in the prior year and our homesites controlled increased to 79% from 70% in the prior year, our lowest years owned and highest controlled percentage in our history.

由於我們持續專注於資產負債表效率並減少資本投資，我們在成為輕土地的目標上再次取得了重大進展。正如喬恩指出的那樣，到季度末，我們的年限從上一年的1.7 年增加到1.2 年，我們的宅基地控制率從上一年的70% 增加到79%，這是我們歷史上擁有時間最少、控制比例最高的。

At quarter end, we owned 91,000 homesites and controlled 340,000 homesites for a total of 431,000 homesites. We believe this portfolio provides us with a strong competitive position to continue to gain market share in a capital-efficient way. We spent $1.7 billion on land purchases this quarter. However, about 90% were finished homesites with vertical construction will soon begin. This is consistent with our manufacturing model of buying land on a just-in-time basis, which is less capital intensive.

截至季末，我們擁有 91,000 個宅基地，並控制 340,000 個宅基地，總計 431,000 個宅基地。我們相信，該投資組合為我們提供了強大的競爭地位，能夠以資本高效的方式繼續獲得市場份額。本季我們在土地購買上花費了 17 億美元。然而，約 90% 的住宅區已完工，垂直建築即將開始。這與我們及時購買土地的製造模式是一致的，這種模式的資本密集程度較低。

Post the homes closed during the quarter, about 60% were from our third-party land structures where we purchase the homes right on a finished basis. As we continue to reduce our ownership of land and purchased homesites on a just-in-time basis, our earnings should more consistently approximate cash flow. And over time, it would be our goal to align capital return to shareholders more closely with that cash flow.

在本季房屋關閉後，約 60% 來自我們的第三方土地結構，我們在其中直接購買成品房屋。隨著我們繼續及時減少土地所有權和購買的宅基地，我們的收入應該會更加接近現金流。隨著時間的推移，我們的目標是使股東的資本回報與現金流更加緊密地結合。

And finally, our inventory churn was 1.6 times, up from 1.7 times last year. And our return on inventory was 31.4%, up 110 basis points from last year. During the quarter and consistent with our production focus, we started about 21,400 homes and ended the quarter with approximately 40,000 homes in the inventory, excluding models. This inventory number included about 1,100 homes that were completed unsold, which is less than one home per community as we successfully manage our finished inventory levels.

最後，我們的庫存週轉率為 1.6 倍，高於去年的 1.7 倍。庫存回報率為31.4%，比去年提高110個基點。在本季度，與我們的生產重點一致，我們開工了約 21,400 套住宅，到本季度結束時，庫存中約有 40,000 套住宅（不包括型號）。該庫存數量包括約 1,100 套已竣工但未售出的房屋，由於我們成功管理了成品庫存水平，因此每個社區不到一套房屋。

Looking at our debt maturity profile, we repaid $454 million of our 4.5% senior notes due April 2024 and we repurchased in the open market $100 million of senior notes due November 2027 at an average price of [$98.6]. Our next debt maturity is not until May of 2025.

從我們的債務到期情況來看，我們償還了2024 年4 月到期的4.5% 優先票據的4.54 億美元，並在公開市場以平均價格[98.6 美元] 回購了2027 年11 月到期的1 億美元優先票據。我們的下一次債務到期要到 2025 年 5 月。

We continue to benefit from our previous pay-downs of senior notes and strong earnings generation, which brought our homebuilding debts total cap down to 7.7% at quarter end, our lowest ever and a remarkable improvement from 13.3% in the prior year. Consistent with our commitment to increasing shareholder returns, we repurchased 3.8 million of our outstanding shares for $603 million. Additionally, we paid total dividends this quarter of $139 million.

我們繼續受益於先前支付的優先票據和強勁的盈利能力，這使我們的住宅建築債務總上限在季度末降至 7.7%，為歷史最低水平，較去年的 13.3% 有了顯著改善。根據我們對增加股東回報的承諾，我們以 6.03 億美元回購了 380 萬股已發行股票。此外，本季我們支付的股利總額為 1.39 億美元。

And just a few final points on our balance sheet. Our stockholders' equity increased to almost $27 billion and our book value per share increased to $97.88. In summary, the strength of our balance sheet, strong liquidity, and low leverage provides us with significant confidence and financial flexibility as we move through 2024 and beyond.

我們的資產負債表上還有最後幾點。我們的股東權益增至近 270 億美元，每股帳面價值增至 97.88 美元。總之，我們的資產負債表實力、強勁的流動性和低槓桿率為我們在 2024 年及以後邁進提供了巨大的信心和財務靈活性。

And so with that brief overview, I'd like to turn to Q3 and provide some guidance estimates. We expect Q3 new orders to be in the range of 20,500 to 21,000 homes as we continue to sell homes in line with our production pace. We anticipate our Q3 deliveries to also be in the range of 20,500 to 21,000 homes with the manufacturing focus of efficiently turning inventory into cash.

因此，透過簡短的概述，我想轉向第三季並提供一些指導性估計。我們預計第三季新訂單將在 20,500 至 21,000 套房屋之間，因為我們將繼續按照生產節奏銷售房屋。我們預計第三季的交付量也將在 20,500 至 21,000 套房屋之間，其製造重點是有效地將庫存轉化為現金。

Our Q3 average sales price on those deliveries should be in the range of $420,000 to $425,000. And we expect gross margins to be about 23% and our SG&A to be in the range of 7.3% to 7.5%, with both estimates having some plus or minus depending on market conditions.

我們第三季交付的平均銷售價格應在 420,000 美元至 425,000 美元之間。我們預期毛利率約為 23%，SG&A 介於 7.3% 至 7.5% 之間，這兩項預測都會根據市場狀況而有所增減。

For the combined homebuilding joint venture, land sales, and other categories, we expect to have earnings of about $20 million. We anticipate our financial services earnings for Q3 to be in the range of $135 million to $140 million, based on expected product mix in our mortgage operations. We expect a loss of about $20 million for our multifamily business, and this estimate does not include the impact of the multifamily transactions that Stuart outlined in his narrative since the specific timing is still uncertain.

對於合併後的住宅建築合資企業、土地銷售和其他類別，我們預計收益約為 2000 萬美元。根據我們抵押貸款業務的預期產品組合，我們預計第三季的金融服務收入將在 1.35 億美元至 1.4 億美元之間。我們預計我們的多戶型業務將損失約 2000 萬美元，而且這一估計不包括斯圖爾特在敘述中概述的多戶型交易的影響，因為具體時間仍不確定。

And then turning to Lennar other, we expect a loss of about $25 million for this category. This estimate does not include any potential mark-to-market adjustments for our public technology investments since that adjustment will be determined by their stock prices at the end of our quarter. Our Q3 corporate G&A should be about 1.8% of total revenues. And our charitable foundation contribution will be based on $1,000 per home delivered.

然後轉向 Lennar 其他，我們預計該類別的損失約為 2500 萬美元。這一估計不包括我們公共技術投資的任何潛在的按市值計算的調整，因為該調整將由它們在我們季度末的股價決定。我們第三季的企業管理費用應佔總營收的 1.8% 左右。我們的慈善基金會捐款將以每個交付的房屋 1,000 美元為基礎。

We expect our tax rate to be about 24.25% and the weighted average share count should be about 271 million shares. And so on a combined basis, these estimates should produce an EPS range of approximately $3.50 to $3.65 per share for the quarter. For the full year, as we mentioned, we remain focused on delivering 80,000 homes, which would be a 10% growth year over year with the gross margin that is consistent with last year's gross margin.

我們預計稅率約為 24.25%，加權平均股數約為 2.71 億股。因此，綜合起來，這些估計應產生本季每股收益約 3.50 美元至 3.65 美元的範圍。正如我們所提到的，我們全年仍專注於交付 80,000 套房屋，這將年增 10%，毛利率與去年的毛利率一致。

We also remain confident with our cash flow generation. As such, we are still targeting a total capital allocation of at least $2.5 billion for 2024. $1.7 billion has already been utilized to repurchase shares and reduce our debt levels to Q2, which are the balance will be applied to additional share repurchases in the second half of the year.

我們對現金流的產生也保持信心。因此，我們的目標仍然是到2024 年至少25 億美元的總資本配置。回購半年。

And with that, let me turn it over to the operator.

然後，讓我把它交給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）Stephen Kim，Evercore ISI。

Thanks very much, guys. I appreciate all the color and solid results in the quarter. I wanted to first start with the land asset structures that you're envisioning, particularly the spin. I know you said that there was going to be more information provided at a later date, but you did offer that it would have about $6 billion to $8 billion of land. That's higher than, I think, that you previously envisioned. I think you said it would have no debt. The team would be led by Fred Rothman.

非常感謝，夥計們。我很欣賞本季的所有色彩和紮實的成果。我想先從您設想的土地資產結構開始，尤其是旋轉。我知道您說過稍後會提供更多信息，但您確實提出將擁有價值約 60 億至 80 億美元的土地。我認為這比您之前的預期要高。我想你說過它不會有債務。該團隊將由弗雷德·羅斯曼領導。

And so just taking some of those, I'm curious what additional land assets are now being included versus what you previously thought? When you say the spin will have no debt, you mean on a stand-alone basis, it will operate with no debt? And if so, are you going to seed the entity with cash, you think? And then lastly, is the entity going to be staffed by current Lennar our employees or primarily industry external personnel?

因此，僅就其中的一些而言，我很好奇與您之前的想法相比，現在還包括哪些額外的土地資產？當你說旋轉將沒有債務時，你的意思是在獨立的基礎上，它將在沒有債務的情況下運作？如果是這樣，您認為您會向該實體注入現金嗎？最後，該實體的員工是我們現有的 Lennar 員工還是主要是產業外部人員？

So that's a bundle of questions in one question, Steve. We see you. So as noted, we're fairly limited in what we can talk about. Just for clarification, it's being spun with no debt. We do have land assets on our books and have continued to as we have evolved our thinking and structuring of the spun entity.

所以這是一個問題中的一堆問題，史蒂夫。我們見到你了。如前所述，我們能談論的內容相當有限。澄清一下，它是在沒有債務的情況下進行的。我們的帳簿上確實有土地資產，隨著我們對分拆實體的思考和結構的發展，我們的帳簿上確實有土地資產。

As I noted, we have stood up a strong (inaudible) with a $4 billion number. As we refined our thinking, we've just included more of the assets that we have. Giving more detail than that would be outside of the boundaries.

正如我所指出的，我們已經以 40 億美元的數字站穩了腳跟（聽不清楚）。當我們完善我們的想法時，我們剛剛納入了更多我們擁有的資產。提供比這更多的細節將超出界限。

What I noted about Fred is that he has been leading the effort to build the filings that we've filed with the SEC. And we haven't gone beyond that to talk about the population of the spun asset. That is something that we'll discuss at some future date. It was more to highlight that we have a dedicated team that is very focused on the execution of the program that we are putting forth, and there will be more detail as we report in future.

我注意到 Fred 一直在領導我們向 SEC 提交的文件的建立工作。我們還沒有超出這個範圍來討論旋轉資產的數量。這是我們將在未來某個時間討論的問題。更需要強調的是，我們有一個專門的團隊，非常專注於我們提出的計劃的執行，我們將來會報告更多細節。

Okay. So I guess we're going to -- that's fine. I guess we're just going to have to wait for more info. That's fine.

好的。所以我想我們會——那很好。我想我們只能等待更多資訊。沒關係。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Second question I have relates to your gross margin. I mean, I think you alluded to the curiosity that people have about the guide seeming to imply something around 25% or something in 4Q. And I'm hoping you can talk about what kind of gives you confidence that the 4Q gross margin will rise? And in particular, I know that you have talked about your even flow production schedule, perhaps affecting the seasonal cadence of gross margin.

我的第二個問題與你們的毛利率有關。我的意思是，我認為您提到了人們對該指南的好奇心，似乎暗示了 25% 左右或第四季度的情況。我希望您能談談是什麼讓您有信心第四季毛利率會上升？特別是，我知道您談到了您的均勻流生產計劃，這可能會影響毛利率的季節性節奏。

So maybe I can ask the question this way. If, hypothetically, market conditions were to be stable for like a whole year, how much seasonal variance would you generally expect by quarter? Would it be that your fourth quarter would generally have the highest margin, you know, with a consistent set of market conditions? And help us think through the quarterly cadence, if you could?

所以也許我可以這樣問這個問題。假設市場狀況全年穩定，您通常預期每季的季節性差異有多大？在市場條件一致的情況下，您的第四季通常會獲得最高的利潤嗎？如果可以的話，請幫助我們思考季度節奏？

Well, first, let me say that we've been clear that we are migrating to a much more even-flow model, and that would take some of the seasonality out of the margin variance that has been historic and has been seasonal, but some of it. Some of it just tends to ebb and flow along with market conditions during different seasons of the year.

好吧，首先，我要說的是，我們已經明確表示，我們正在遷移到更加均勻的流量模型，這將消除歷史性和季節性的利潤差異中的一些季節性因素，但有些它的。其中一些只是隨著一年中不同季節的市場狀況而波動。

We do understand that margins will be materially higher in the fourth quarter. Some of that is seasonal. Some of that has been directional in terms of the work that we've done on building both core plans and reducing our construction costs as we have continued to build volume and continued to consistently address a somewhat volatile market.

我們確實知道第四季的利潤率將大幅提高。其中一些是季節性的。其中一些工作對我們在製定核心計劃和降低建設成本方面所做的工作具有指導意義，因為我們不斷增加產量並繼續持續應對有些波動的市場。

We have earned not only the respect but cooperation of our trade partners in understanding that they can depend on production. And we have used that cooperation to be able to build a more efficient program. It takes you time for some of those savings to flow through. We do have visibility as to what those savings are and how they're flowing through.

我們不僅贏得了貿易夥伴的尊重，還贏得了合作，讓他們了解他們可以依賴生產。我們利用這種合作來建立更有效率的計劃。其中一些節省的資金需要時間才能體現出來。我們確實清楚這些節省的內容以及它們如何流動。

And as I said, some of that improvement in margin is embedded in our backlog. Of course, as the market ebbs and flows, some of its driven by interest rate, some by consumer confidence. We'll have to see how sales and pricing resolve as we go through the remainder of the year, and we leave that open. And we'll see that together as market conditions present.

正如我所說，利潤率的部分改善體現在我們的積壓訂單中。當然，隨著市場的起伏，有些是由利率驅動的，有些則是由消費者信心所驅動的。我們必須在今年剩下的時間裡看看銷售和定價如何解決，我們對此保持開放態度。隨著市場狀況的出現，我們將一起看到這一點。

And Diane, would you like to add to that?

黛安，你想補充一下嗎？

Yes, just the other thing is, as you know, the expense -- field expense, so that in and of itself. In general, if you looked at last year, for example, from Q3 to Q4, we had about a 40 basis point benefit just from the field. So that 40, 50 basis points is pretty consistent lift that we get from Q3 to Q4 just from field expenses.

是的，正如你所知，另一件事是費用——現場費用，因此其本身。總的來說，如果你看看去年，例如從第三季度到第四季度，我們僅從該領域就獲得了大約 40 個基點的收益。因此，從第三季到第四季度，僅從現場支出來看，40、50 個基點是相當一致的提升。

Okay, great. That's helpful. So just to make sure I understand, it sounds like the seasonal aspects, which might be the field expenses, is fairly minor benefit to your 4Q. And so it sounds like you're attributing more of the stronger 4Q gross margin to actually your scale advantages that you've been building up. That sounds like something that's more persistent and not necessarily something that is particular to a fourth quarter per se, right? And so this gives us a thought process that your margins are generally improving as you've been improving your scale. And that's the message that we should take back for this 4Q lifting gross margin.

好的，太好了。這很有幫助。因此，為了確保我理解，聽起來季節性方面（可能是現場費用）對您的第四季度的好處相當小。因此，聽起來您將第四季度毛利率的強勁更多歸因於您一直在建立的規模優勢。這聽起來像是更持久的事情，不一定是第四季本身特有的事情，對嗎？因此，這給了我們一個思考過程，即隨著規模的擴大，您的利潤率通常會提高。這就是我們應該為第四季毛利率提升而收回的訊息。

I think that's a good takeaway. And I think that, in many ways, this is structural and durable for the future. So, a lot of what we've been doing, on the one hand, has been muted by the fact that market conditions have moved around quite a bit, as I noted, interest rates moving up through this last quarter on the cash credentials.

我認為這是一個很好的外賣。我認為，從很多方面來說，這對未來來說是結構性的、持久的。因此，一方面，我們所做的很多事情都因為市場狀況發生了很大變化而被削弱，正如我所指出的，上個季度現金憑證的利率上升。

But on the other hand, the cost savings and the way that we are, number one, configuring production in the field, and number two, re-engineering our product lines to be much more consistent with core products that are repeatable from market to market and across individual markets. It's creating a durable efficiency that will be with us for years to come. So yes, I think that this will be sticky and stay with us as we move forward.

但另一方面，成本節約和我們的方式，第一，配置現場生產，第二，重新設計我們的產品線，使其與市場之間可重複的核心產品更加一致以及各個市場。它正在創造一種持久的效率，這種效率將伴隨我們多年。所以，是的，我認為這將具有黏性，並隨著我們的前進而一直伴隨著我們。

Carl Reichardt, BTIG.

卡爾雷查特 (Carl Reichardt)，BTIG。

Thanks. Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Jon, you mentioned differentiating among markets that pricing power versus the need to increase incentives. Can you talk a bit about what those markets are or were in second quarter? And then, in particular, I'm interested in Florida with the existing home inventory higher, some evidence of vacant capacity from the rental market coming back to for sale, second homes. Can you talk maybe specifically about those [metros] too? Thanks.

謝謝。大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。喬恩，您提到區分市場的定價能力與增加誘因的需求。您能談談第二季這些市場的情況嗎？然後，我特別對佛羅裡達州感興趣，因為現有的房屋庫存較高，有一些證據表明租賃市場的空置能力又回到了待售的第二套房屋。能具體談談那些[地鐵]嗎？謝謝。

We saw in most of Florida markets continued strength, particularly from Southeast Florida up the eastern coast of Florida. We saw very strong year-over-year growth in our pace, which indicates that the underpinnings of the market demand are there. I would say we saw more of a return to seasonality in Southwest Florida this year., so strengthened that market, but definitely saw that occur. Saw real strength up through the Carolinas, Atlanta, and up into the Mid-Atlantic.

我們看到佛羅裡達州大部分市場持續走強，特別是從佛羅裡達州東南部到佛羅裡達州東海岸。我們看到我們的同比增長非常強勁，這表明市場需求的基礎已經存在。我想說，今年佛羅裡達州西南部更多地回歸季節性，因此加強了該市場，但肯定看到了這種情況的發生。從卡羅萊納州、亞特蘭大一直到大西洋中部，我們都看到了真正的力量。

And then, in Texas, saw the ability to continue at a pace that the matchup production, which is again supported by the underlying demand. Out west, strength was seen in some of the mountain areas in Denver and Salt Lake City and then out in California really led by the affordability in an Empire and just ongoing supply demand and balance in the Bay Area.

然後，在德克薩斯州，看到了繼續以匹配生產速度進行的能力，這再次受到潛在需求的支撐。在西部，丹佛和鹽湖城的一些山區表現強勁，然後在加利福尼亞州，真正受到帝國的承受能力以及灣區持續的供應需求和平衡的影響。

Thank you for that, Jon. And then I have a broader question. As you at Lennar and some others have kind of transitioned away from, I guess, what you could call, land speculation type of business model years ago to more of a vertically integrated manufacturer or a retailer, building more spec, pricing more aggressively. Stuart, do you think the consumer is becoming conditioned to expect discounts in the market, especially seasonal ones, the same way we've seen it in other sort of big ticket retail businesses?

謝謝你，喬恩。然後我有一個更廣泛的問題。我想，正如您在 Lennar 和其他一些人所經歷的那樣，已經從幾年前所謂的土地投機類型的商業模式轉變為垂直整合的製造商或零售商，構建更多規格，更積極地定價。斯圖爾特，您是否認為消費者已經習慣於期待市場上的折扣，尤其是季節性折扣，就像我們在其他大型零售企業中看到的那樣？

And I ask in part because pricing and changing in base pricing has been a bit of an issue in this business, given that homes are also investments as opposed to simply consumer products and so stability in prices have value to some degree. So maybe you can talk about how the consumer's responding or might respond in the long run, if their views are changing on when they buy, how they buy, and what they ask for (inaudible)? Thanks.

我問這個問題的部分原因是定價和基本定價的變化在這個行業中一直是一個問題，因為房屋也是投資而不是簡單的消費品，因此價格的穩定性在某種程度上具有價值。因此，也許您可以談談消費者對何時購買、如何購買以及要求什麼（聽不清楚）的看法發生變化，從長遠來看，他們會如何反應或可能會如何反應？謝謝。

So I think, looking at a moment in time, where on the one hand, there's a supply shortage. But on the other hand, the consumer out of necessity is looking for elements of incentives or discounts to be able to afford, to be able to access the housing stock that they need.

所以我認為，從某個時刻來看，一方面存在供應短缺。但另一方面，出於需要，消費者正在尋找激勵或折扣的要素，以便能夠負擔得起，能夠獲得他們需要的房屋存量。

I don't think that we can draw long-term conclusions about discounting from this moment in time. And I think it's very differentiated from the broader retail world in that we have a structural and chronic supply shortage. There will be a moment in time where affordability is less challenge. At that moment in time, the supply shortage will be a more dominant theme and I think you'll more quickly see a snap back to where demand will come to market, outstrip the supply, and some of the discounting -- a lot of the discounting will kind of snap back to normal levels.

我認為我們不能從此時此刻就得出有關折扣的長期結論。我認為這與更廣泛的零售世界非常不同，因為我們有結構性和長期的供應短缺。總有一天，負擔能力不再是個挑戰。到那時，供應短缺將成為一個更主導的主題，我認為你會更快地看到市場需求迅速回升，超過供應，以及一些折扣——許多折扣將恢復到正常水平。

So I think that it would be overly aggressive to try to draw conclusions as to the way the market will evolve in the future from today's current configuration.

因此，我認為試圖從今天的當前配置中得出市場未來發展方式的結論過於激進。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊·馬克拉里，高盛。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to focus a bit on the cash flows and thinking about the capital allocation. You know, Stuart, in the past, you've mentioned getting net income and free cash flow closer to being in line together. As you think about a lot of the initiatives that you're putting in place and the progress you're making there, can you talk about how far out you think you are from achieving that and what are the roadblocks that perhaps still exist to getting there?

謝謝。大家，早安。我想重點關注現金流並考慮資本配置。你知道，斯圖爾特，過去你曾提到讓淨利潤和自由現金流更加接近一致。當您考慮正在實施的許多舉措以及正在取得的進展時，您能否談談您認為距離實現這一目標還有多遠，以及實現這一目標可能仍然存在哪些障礙那裡？

I'll pass back to Diane for a second. Go ahead.

我將轉回黛安一會兒。前進。

Susan, I'll jump in. I think with each quarter that goes by, we're getting closer to closer. And sometimes we exceed. You know, if you look at this quarter, for example, net earnings are, let's just call it, $950 million and our capital allocation when you combine the share repurchases and the debt paydowns was in excess of that, right, at about $1.1 billion.

蘇珊，我來插話。 我想隨著每季的過去，我們越來越接近。有時我們會超越。你知道，如果你看看這個季度，淨利潤是，我們就這麼稱呼它，9.5億美元，當你把股票回購和債務償還結合起來時，我們的資本配置超過了這個數字，對吧，大約是11億美元。

So it actually [comes] a little bit. Sometimes it's a little short, and sometimes it's a little over. But I think the important thing is that as we continue to really focus on being a manufacturer and have even flow really become even more prominent in our business and purchasing on a just-in-time basis, I think you're going to see those two much more consistently aligned.

所以它實際上[來了]一點點。有時有點短，有時又有點結束。但我認為重要的是，隨著我們繼續真正專注於成為製造商，甚至流程在我們的業務和即時採購中變得更加突出，我認為您會看到這些兩個更加一致。

Okay. That's helpful. And then as you do think about the business further out, and, you know, as I said, the initiatives that you're going through, what's the level of cash balance that you will eventually feel comfortable holding on the balance sheet? How much will you need to maintain the business? And how do you think about the allocation of the amount that comes in above that level?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，當您進一步考慮業務時，您知道，正如我所說，您正在經歷的舉措，您最終願意在資產負債表上持有的現金餘額水平是多少？您需要多少錢來維持業務？您如何看待高於該水平的金額的分配？

It's a fair question. It's a good question. And I think that we are not quite there in being able to project out exactly how to think about that. As we go through and have gone through some of the reconfiguration, we have been -- I want to say surprised, but surprised is too aggressive a word.

這是一個公平的問題。這是一個好問題。我認為我們還無法準確地規劃出如何思考這個問題。當我們經歷並經歷了一些重新配置時，我們一直——我想說驚訝，但驚訝這個詞太激進了。

To the upside and to the downside as to exactly how cash flows from quarter to quarter through the year. And the answer to your question is going be directly tied to how our cash ebbs and flows as fiction books flow through the operational manufacturing machine that we have.

全年每季的現金流到底如何，無論是上行還是下行。你的問題的答案將直接關係到我們的現金流如何隨著小說書流經我們擁有的營運製造機器而變化。

I think that we are leaving ourselves some latitude to develop some real-time understanding and expertise in how those dollars will flow in and out, hence why we've been a little stubborn on using our cash a little bit more aggressively, particularly as we craft the spin company. It adds complication to some of these calculations and the structural changes make it a little complicated.

我認為，我們給自己留下了一些自由度，可以對這些美元將如何流入和流出進行實時了解和專業知識，因此，為什麼我們一直頑固地更積極地使用我們的現金，特別是當我們打造紡織公司。它增加了其中一些計算的複雜性，並且結構變化使其變得有點複雜。

Diane, do you want to add that.

黛安，你想補充一下嗎？

Yeah, the only other thing I'd say that's really just in support of that is if you look at the statistic that I mentioned, which is when you look at the deliveries this quarter, 60% of the deliveries had homes that were purchased on a finished basis. And so -- as I think as we see that migrate higher, that does get to a more consistent, predictable, and visible cash flow. And then when we get to that point, I think we can really start to have a conversation about what's that balance because that consistency and visibility has now come into more focus.

是的，我想說的唯一能支持這一點的另一件事是，如果你看一下我提到的統計數據，即當你查看本季度的交付量時，60% 的交付量中有購買的房屋一個完成的基礎。因此，我認為，當我們看到更高的遷移率時，確實會獲得更一致、可預測和可見的現金流。然後，當我們到達這一點時，我認為我們真的可以開始討論什麼是平衡，因為一致性和可見性現在已經成為人們更加關注的焦點。

Yeah. Okay. Thank you for the thoughts. I appreciate it. Good luck with everything.

是的。好的。謝謝你的想法。我很感激。祝一切順利。

Susan, let me just say one more thing. There's another element to that. And that is appropriate capital for growth. So it's something that's another part of the equation. We remain growth minded as we build structures for the future. So that's another variable that goes into that question about how much cash do we retain. Just finishing up.

蘇珊，讓我再說一件事。還有另一個因素。這是促進成長的適當資本。所以這是等式的另一部分。在建構未來架構時，我們始終保持成長思維。因此，這是另一個涉及我們保留多少現金問題的變數。剛剛結束。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，Zelman & Associates。

Hey, guys, nice quarter and congrats on all the behind-the-scenes work on pivoting towards just-in-time. I think, it's going to be exciting to see it all done in the quarters and years ahead.

嘿，夥計們，美好的季度，祝賀所有幕後工作轉向準時制。我認為，看到這一切在未來幾季和幾年內完成將會令人興奮。

Stuart, first question, last quarter, you guys referenced a little bit of a weakening in the overall quality -- the credit quality of the consumers. You were seeing potential buyers in your community, maybe some higher credit card debt, lower credit scores. I think at the time, you were the first to address that. And we've since heard some more anecdotes about that, those from homebuilders as well as other industries.

斯圖爾特，第一個問題，上個季度，你們提到了整體品質——消費者信用品質——的一些削弱。您在社區中看到了潛在的買家，可能是信用卡債務較高、信用評分較低。我想當時你是第一個提出這個問題的。此後，我們又聽到了更多關於這方面的軼事，這些軼事來自住宅建築商以及其他行業。

So just curious, my first question, what you are seeing from the consumer today? Are you seeing more yellow flags or red flags unfolding? Or have things been pretty stable since then?

所以我很好奇，我的第一個問題是，您今天從消費者身上看到了什麼？您是否看到更多的黃旗或紅旗出現？還是從那時起事情就相當穩定了？

Yeah, yeah. Thanks, Alan. You're right. We did detail that in the last quarterly call. I felt it was important to put out there at the time. Since that time, it has been much better documented. And so I think it's fairly well-known that there has been some movement upward in consumer debt, the debt of some of our customers. It has not spiked since then. It has not changed materially to the negative.

是啊是啊。謝謝，艾倫。你說得對。我們在上一次季度電話會議中詳細介紹了這一點。我當時覺得把它放在那裡很重要。從那時起，它就有了更好的記錄。因此，我認為眾所周知，消費者債務（我們的一些客戶的債務）正在上升。從那時起它就沒有飆升。它並沒有發生實質的負面變化。

But there's no question that given inflation rates and the cost of living expenses, the consumer is definitely feeling a little bit more stress, and we are starting to see a little bit more credit challenge as customers come through. But that's consistent with what we were seeing last quarter. And of course, that makes the interest rate movement all the more -- it creates more sensitivity.

但毫無疑問，考慮到通膨率和生活費用，消費者肯定會感受到更大的壓力，隨著客戶的到來，我們開始看到更多的信貸挑戰。但這與我們上季看到的情況一致。當然，這使得利率變動更加嚴重——它產生了更多的敏感性。

So as interest rates have started to subside a little bit, it will be interesting to see how that ripples with the current state of the consumer. And we're looking forward to addressing market conditions as they present.

因此，隨著利率開始略有下降，看看這對消費者當前狀況有何影響將會很有趣。我們期待著解決當前的市場狀況。

Right. I appreciate that update on that and encouraging to hear at least it's not accelerating or the deterioration is not getting worse.

正確的。我很欣賞這方面的最新消息，並鼓勵聽到至少它沒有加速或惡化沒有變得更糟。

Second, I'd love to spend a minute just talking about the SG&A and the corporate expense line, because I think that was the one area on the model that maybe was a little bit worse than guided for. And I think in general, it's been trending higher than a year ago. And I know there's a lot that could potentially be driving that.

其次，我願意花一分鐘討論 SG&A 和公司費用線，因為我認為這是模型中可能比指導的更糟糕的領域。我認為總的來說，它的趨勢比一年前更高。我知道有很多因素可能會推動這一趨勢。

Obviously, broker commissions and things like that could be a function of where demand is. But I know you've got a lot of stuff going on behind the scenes as well with spin co and apartments. And I was hoping you could just spend a minute or two talking about what's going on with the SG&A, where you see that going forward beyond the third quarter and pick apart the pluses and minuses there?

顯然，經紀人佣金和類似的事情可能是需求所在的函數。但我知道你們在幕後還有很多事情在進行，包括旋轉公司和公寓。我希望您能花一兩分鐘討論一下 SG&A 的情況，您認為第三季度之後的情況會怎樣，並分析其中的優缺點？

Yeah, we probably didn't spend enough time on SG&A. I thought about that as I was writing my remarks. SG&A is not the tight programming that we've had historically. It's simply because we are working on so much and recalibrating the way that the business actually operates.

是的，我們可能沒有在 SG&A 上花費足夠的時間。當我寫下我的發言時，我想到了這一點。 SG&A 並不是我們歷史上那樣嚴格的規劃。這只是因為我們正在做大量工作並重新調整業務的實際運作方式。

And if you think about the fact that over the past few years, we've probably migrated about $20 billion of land to off balance sheet kind of programming in favor of adjusting time delivery system and the development of that delivery system in and of itself is a reorganization of the entire platform and comes with some cost ebbs and flows that are flowing through SG&A.

如果你考慮一下這樣一個事實，在過去的幾年裡，我們可能已經將大約 200 億美元的土地轉移到資產負債表外的編程中，以支持調整時間交付系統，而該交付系統本身的開發就是整個平台的重組，並伴隨著一些透過SG&A流動的成本波動。

And in particular, as we now start building an additional subsidiary program in that regard, meaning some of -- a large part of the other land that we own and building this spin co, you can imagine that some of the ebbs and flows of SG&A will be altered from its normal course by some anomalous additions that are flowing through.

特別是，當我們現在開始在這方面建立一個額外的附屬計劃時，這意味著我們擁有的其他土地的很大一部分並建立了這個旋轉公司，你可以想像SG＆A的一些起伏將會因為一些流經的異常添加物而改變其正常路線。

So Diane, maybe you can give a little bit more color on that.

黛安，也許你可以對此提供更多的色彩。

Yeah, I think that's right. I think we've seen incredible progress and transformation of our balance sheet with regard to the year zone and the percent of land that we control. And so, therefore, they have been more expensive with those transactions to accomplish that greater base. So I think that's a little more color that corresponds with what Stuart was mentioning.

是的，我認為這是對的。我認為，在年份區域和我們控制的土地百分比方面，我們的資產負債表取得了令人難以置信的進步和轉變。因此，為了實現更大的基礎，他們的交易成本更高。所以我認為這與史都華提到的內容相對應。

Also, I think additionally, just remember that, and I know everybody's experiencing this, but insurance costs have gone up. So as we think about our insurance policies and our deductibles and things like that, there's a little bit of that, also incredibly focused on generating non-brokered leads. And so sometimes depending on market conditions, that requires a little bit more digital marketing and advertising spend. So those all came together.

另外，我認為，請記住這一點，我知道每個人都經歷過這種情況，但保險費用已經上漲。因此，當我們考慮我們的保險政策和免賠額以及類似的事情時，有一點，也非常注重產生非經紀線索。因此，有時根據市場情況，這需要更多的數位行銷和廣告支出。所以這些都聚集在一起。

The one thing I would note though is that the increase was not related to higher broker spend. We've been really focused on keeping that at lower level. So however the offset to that is perhaps a little bit more digital spend so that you are creating those non-brokered leads.

但我要注意的一件事是，這一增長與經紀商支出的增加無關。我們一直致力於將其保持在較低水平。因此，抵消這一影響的可能是增加一點數字支出，這樣您就可以創造那些非經紀的潛在客戶。

Look, I just got to add to this and say that I think we can't really break it down and compartmentalize the costs that are flowing through. It's a little bit of a jumbled picture.

看，我只是要補充一點，我認為我們無法真正將其分解並劃分正在流動的成本。這是一張有點混亂的圖片。

So if you look at the base operation in every part of our operation from construction costs and all the way through SG&A, we are getting more and more efficient. And as we go through these next quarters, there will be a little bit of cloudiness in some of that. But as we break through to the other side, we think we're building a much better efficiency model that is going to work much better in terms of capital deployment, capital positioning, and capital allocation that will work through the long-term benefit of the company.

因此，如果你看看我們運營的每個部分的基礎運營，從建築成本一直到SG&A，我們的效率越來越高。當我們經歷接下來的幾個季度時，其中的一些情況將會有些陰暗。但當我們突破到另一邊時，我們認為我們正在建立一個更好的效率模型，該模型將在資本部署、資本定位和資本配置方面發揮更好的作用，從而實現長期利益公司。

As I think about it is as we talk about the benefits that we -- the operational benefits from maintaining production in ebb and flow, the same relates to this as we continue to maintain the level of off-balance sheet transactions to generate the cash flow and the returns that it has been, we will also become more efficient with managing those costs.

我認為，當我們談論我們的好處時——保持生產波動帶來的營運好處，這與我們繼續維持表外交易水平以產生現金流量有關以及所取得的回報，我們在管理這些成本方面也將變得更有效率。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

麥可雷豪特，摩根大通。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Wanted to just circle back to -- covered a lot of ground, and obviously, appreciate all the detail. Just wanted to circle back, if I could, trying to get a little more clarity on the 4Q gross margins. And appreciate your comments earlier, Diane, around the 40 or 50 bps of operational leverage. Just wanted to make sure I'm understanding it correctly. I believe, earlier, Stuart, you said that it was in part based on backlog, part based on what you expect to do, market conditions, et cetera.

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想回到——涵蓋了很多內容，顯然，欣賞所有的細節。如果可以的話，我只是想回過頭來，試著更清楚地了解第四季的毛利率。感謝您先前的評論，黛安，營運槓桿約為 40 或 50 個基點。只是想確保我理解正確。我相信，斯圖爾特，您早些時候說過，這部分是基於積壓，部分是基於您期望做什麼、市場狀況等等。

On the point of backlog versus market conditions, just curious on if that 25%-ish type gross margin, if that is in fact what you're seeing in a part of your backlog today? Because obviously, part of that backlog would be delivered in the upcoming quarter at 23% gross margins. How much of the 25% is based off of the backlog versus perhaps as rates have come down over the last month, we're also thinking that maybe there's little less incentives out there today. And wondering about permanent orders, if that's also a better margin today. And I don't know if mix is a part of it as well. But just trying to get a little more granular on the drivers of that 4Q improvement versus 3Q.

就積壓訂單與市場狀況而言，我只是好奇是否有 25% 左右的毛利率，如果這確實是您今天在積壓訂單的一部分中看到的情況？因為顯然，部分積壓訂單將在下個季度以 23% 的毛利率交付。 25% 中有多少是基於積壓訂單，而上個月利率可能有所下降，我們也認為，今天的激勵措施可能並沒有減少。想知道永久訂單是否也是今天更好的利潤。我不知道混合是否也是其中的一部分。但只是想更詳細地了解第四季與第三季相比改善的驅動因素。

Good morning, Mike. Thanks for the question.

早上好，麥克。謝謝你的提問。

So this is an imperfect calculation. It is always imperfect to flow through production cost reductions. And so giving more detail is little bit complicated. Some of that and some of the higher margins will flow through our third quarter. Some of it will flow through the fourth quarter. And some into the next year. It's hard to know exactly where those numbers will flow through.

所以這是一個不完美的計算。透過降低生產成本來實現始終是不完美的。因此提供更多細節有點複雜。其中一些和一些較高的利潤將貫穿我們的第三季。其中一些將貫穿第四季。有些進入明年。很難確切知道這些數字將流向何處。

And so there's not a lot more detail that we can give. It's just that, directionally, we understand. Margin is in part driven by the price that we get per home. It's in part driven by the cost we pay for the building of that home. As we have been focusing on volume at a time where there is variability in the marketplace, we've been able to rethink not only our product lines and our core products, but also the cost structure that we worked with our trade partners.

因此我們無法提供更多細節。只是，從方向上來說，我們理解。利潤率部分取決於我們每間房屋的價格。這在一定程度上是由我們為建造該房屋所支付的成本所驅動的。由於我們在市場變化的時期一直專注於銷量，因此我們不僅能夠重新思考我們的產品線和核心產品，而且能夠重新思考我們與貿易夥伴合作的成本結構。

And so it's in part flowing through the revenue side and part flowing through the cost side of the equation. And we're going to see how that evolves as we go through. And while all of that is happening, we are still continuing to sell homes in the current market conditions as it ebbs and flows.

因此，它部分流經收入方，部分流經等式的成本方。隨著我們的經歷，我們將看到這種情況如何演變。儘管所有這一切都在發生，但在當前的市場條件下，隨著市場的起起落落，我們仍然繼續出售房屋。

So too hard to put the pieces together, but those are the pieces that we see coming together as we give guidance and as we try to do the best we can to tell you what we see ahead. Of course, on the part that is in backlog, we understand components of it, so we're not sure which homes will close in the third and the fourth quarter and into the first. And as for the homes that we will sell over the next month, we're going to have to wait and see how the market evolves in a volatile market condition as we've been. I don't know if that's helpful, but I wish I could give it to you in more granular form.

將這些碎片拼湊在一起太難了，但當我們提供指導並盡最大努力告訴您我們的未來時，我們看到這些碎片拼湊在一起。當然，對於積壓的部分，我們了解其組成部分，因此我們不確定哪些房屋將在第三季和第四季以及第一季關閉。至於我們將在下個月出售的房屋，我們將不得不等待，看看市場在動盪的市場條件下如何演變。我不知道這是否有幫助，但我希望以更詳細的形式提供給您。

Yes, no, no.

是的，不，不。

So I think you alluded to incentives and as you think about the continual increase for most -- in interest rates for most of Q2, of course, that impacts the closings in Q3. And so if we see some stability, and then we don't have a crystal ball on that, but if we see some stability with rates instead of the increase that we saw last quarter, that will also be helpful to margins. So what we show in Q3, of course, we deliver in Q4.

因此，我認為您提到了激勵措施，當您考慮第二季大部分時間利率的持續成長時，當然，這會影響第三季的結帳。因此，如果我們看到一些穩定，然後我們沒有水晶球，但如果我們看到利率有一些穩定而不是上個季度看到的成長，這也將有助於利潤率。當然，我們在第三季展示的內容也會在第四季交付。

Right. No, no, thank you for that, Diane.

正確的。不，不，謝謝你，黛安。

Maybe my second question -- I just wanted to focus on more maybe month-to-month trends and you kind of alluded to this earlier that earlier in the quarter, you were dealing with a little bit of higher rates, perhaps using more incentives. Just wanted to get a sense.

也許是我的第二個問題——我只是想更多地關注月度趨勢，您在本季度早些時候就提到過這一點，您正在處理稍微更高的利率，也許會使用更多的激勵措施。只是想了解一下。

And then obviously more recently, rates coming in a little bit. Just wanted to try to get a sense, if possible, around how that impacted incentives as a percent of sales throughout the quarter and if there was a high watermark perhaps earlier in the quarter. And I'm just trying to get a sense of where you might be relative to that higher watermark. Let's say a couple of months ago, in terms of trying to gauge, pricing power and level of incentives in the marketplace today versus -- and rates were 30, 40 bps higher, let's say.

顯然，最近，利率有所上升。只是想嘗試了解（如果可能的話）這對整個季度銷售額百分比的激勵有何影響，以及本季早些時候是否存在高水位線。我只是想了解一下您相對於更高水位線的位置。假設幾個月前，就試圖衡量的而言，當今市場的定價能力和激勵水平與利率高出 30、40 個基點。

Well, let me start and maybe Diane will give us some additional color. But remember, as I said in my remarks, that when we started the quarter, the rates were at about 6.75%. As we went through the quarter, it migrated up to about 7.3%. It wasn't really until right at the end of our quarter that interest rates kind of took a sudden turn in the opposite direction.

好吧，讓我開始吧，也許黛安會給我們一些額外的色彩。但請記住，正如我在演講中所說，當我們本季開始時，利率約為 6.75%。當我們經歷這個季度時，它上升到了 7.3% 左右。直到本季末，利率才真正突然轉向相反的方向。

So that didn't really reflect itself through our quarter, certainly not in any of the deliveries in our quarter. So what we have found is that the current market condition is pretty sensitive to interest rate movements. And there is a relationship and a very direct one between interest rates migrating higher and the need for higher incentives to offset some of those interest rates.

因此，這並沒有真正反映在我們的季度中，當然也沒有反映在我們季度的任何交付中。所以我們發現目前的市場狀況對利率變動非常敏感。利率上升與需要更高的激勵措施來抵銷部分利率之間有著非常直接的關係。

It became a little more difficult as interest rates migrated to the 7.3% range, and there were higher incentives that went along with interest rates at that level. And I think that that's something that we can expect is going to continue as rates trend up. There will be a little bit more incentive as rates trend down. It seems that some of the incentives come off. And we'll have to see if that continues to hold up, continues to be the consistent pattern.

隨著利率升至 7.3% 的範圍，事情變得有點困難，而且該水準的利率伴隨著更高的激勵措施。我認為隨著利率的上升，我們可以預期這種情況將會持續下去。隨著利率下降，將會有更多的激勵措施。看來有些激勵措施已經失效了。我們必須看看這種情況是否繼續有效，是否繼續成為一貫的模式。

And order of magnitude, it's an everyday kind of assessment that moves around a little bit. I don't think I can peg for you that 25 basis points in interest rate translate into X number of incentive dollars spent in one area or another. It's very market by market, and the consumer base is very different in different markets.

在數量級上，這是一種日常的評估，會發生一些變化。我認為我無法告訴你 25 個基點的利率會轉化為在某個領域或另一個領域花費的 X 筆激勵資金。每個市場的情況都不同，不同市場的消費者基礎也有很大不同。

Diane, any --

黛安，任何——

I think that's right. And to answer your question, like so as we looked at the incentives given in March, April and May, each month, those incentives as a percent did increase, which is very consistent with what Stuart said. It really mirrored with the direction of interest rates. So as they've moderated, it would be our hope that the levels that we saw in May would also moderate.

我認為這是對的。為了回答你的問題，就像我們查看 3 月、4 月和 5 月提供的激勵措施一樣，每個月這些激勵措施的百分比確實有所增加，這與史都華所說的非常一致。它確實反映了利率的方向。因此，隨著它們的放緩，我們希望 5 月的水平也會有所放緩。

Great. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Okay. Thanks, Mike. And let's take one more question, please.

好的。謝謝，麥克。請讓我們再問一個問題。

Kenneth Zener, Seaport Research Partners.

肯尼斯‧齊納 (Kenneth Zener)，海港研究合作夥伴。

Hello, everybody. Well, I think we could avoid a lot of the gross margin comments, if 1Q perhaps is just the bottom in gross margin versus flat the math we're doing. But I want to focus on gross margin seasonality separate from the fixed field costs because that's kind of straightforward to model.

大家好。好吧，我認為我們可以避免很多毛利率評論，如果第一季可能只是毛利率的底部，而不是我們正在做的數學計算的持平。但我想專注於與固定現場成本分開的毛利率季節性，因為這很容易建模。

Now, your incentives in 1Q are like 10.4%, great disclosure in your Q. What was it in 2Q versus the kind of five to six level in 18, 19. And I'm asking because it seems even flow your model, which helps obviously costs, creates a little incentive seasonality, which I think separate from the macro and the rates. Because we're just trying to -- when you build a house first half plus sales demand, so it's kind of like selling ice in the winter versus the second half, I believe, is your thinking based on past trends. And if you can kind of talk about that, at least, if I think that's what's missing in the even-flow discussion a little bit, if you would. That was my first question.

現在，你在第一季的激勵大約是10.4%，在你的問題中進行了很好的披露。是因為它似乎甚至在你的模型中流動，這有助於顯然成本，創造了一點激勵季節性，我認為這與宏觀和利率是分開的。因為我們只是想——當你上半年建造一棟房子加上銷售需求時，所以這有點像冬天賣冰與下半年，我相信，是你基於過去趨勢的思考。如果你能談談這一點，至少，如果我認為這是均勻流討論中缺少的一點，如果你願意的話。這是我的第一個問題。

So Ken, you were asking specifically about the incentives on delivery. Is that what you're referring to?

肯，您具體詢問了交付激勵措施。你指的是這個嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So Q1, they were 10.9%. Q2, they were 9.4%. I'm not so sure. Of course, perhaps in seasonality, but I really -- as we've been saying, I really think it's more a direct correlation to the interest rate environment. I think that perhaps what you're really referring to on a broader basis is trying to punctuate that the gross margin on a go-forward basis should be more aligned with the changes that we've been talking about from an operational standpoint.

第一季的比例為 10.9%。第二季度，為 9.4%。我不確定。當然，也許是季節性的，但我真的——正如我們一直所說的，我真的認為這與利率環境更直接相關。我認為，也許您在更廣泛的基礎上真正指的是試圖強調未來的毛利率應該與我們從營運角度討論的變化更加一致。

So the sustainability and the durability of the efficiencies and the cost benefits that we're seeing in margin should be maintained on a quarter-to-quarter basis with a little bit of seasonality mixed in, but you should see a very strong and sustainable gross margin as we become even more proficient with even flow. I think that's what you're probably trying to punctuate.

因此，我們在利潤率中看到的效率和成本效益的可持續性和持久性應該按季度保持，並混合一點季節性，但你應該看到非常強勁和可持續的總毛利率隨著我們對均勻流量變得更熟練，利潤率也會增加。我想這就是你可能想要標點的內容。

Sometimes, there'll be some fluctuations in margin relative to the environment. But there's a lot of durability and sustainability in what you're seeing.

有時，相對於環境而言，利潤會出現一些波動。但您所看到的有很多耐用性和可持續性。

Good. Second question. I guess, Stuart, this is a little more for you in the sense you're -- it's comparing ROI have your core homebuilding which you're directionally going towards. Timing is as much tied to unknown things, right? No need to get into that.

好的。第二個問題。我想，斯圖爾特，這對你來說有點多了——它正在比較你有方向的核心住宅建設的投資回報率。時間與未知的事物同樣緊密相關，對吧？無需深究。

But your choice to have so many other assets which are third or 40% of your total asset base. How do you think your ROI goes from 30% down to ROA in the low teens there. But how is multi-family? I know that land will improve your homebuilding returns. But do you really need the multifamily? Is technology part of that core homebuilding, in your opinion?

但你選擇擁有這麼多其他資產，這些資產佔你總資產基礎的三分之一或 40%。您認為您的投資回報率如何從 30% 下降到十幾歲的 ROA？但多戶家庭怎麼樣？我知道土地會提高你的住宅建設回報。但你真的需要多戶住宅嗎？您認為科技是核心住宅建設的一部分嗎？

I'm just trying to see how philosophically you think about these other assets. I realize you can't address the timing, but that's like the biggest drag and merging your ROI and your ROA. And I'm just seeing if we really need these other parts in your longer-term philosophy as it's not clear to me yet. Thank you.

我只是想看看您如何從哲學角度看待這些其他資產。我知道您無法解決時間問題，但這就像最大的阻力，並將您的投資回報率和投資回報率合併起來。我只是想看看我們是否真的需要你們的長期理念中的這些其他部分，因為我還不清楚。謝謝。

Again, we are focused on being the greatest homebuilder that we can be and doing our part in building a healthier housing market. The multi-family programming that we have in place is really quite adjacent to our core homebuilding business. We basically already build the same product, but the uncore product represents a for-sale market. Building it for for-rent market is something that we can do at the division level because there is an adjacency to what we already build. And we'll build it in a third-party platform. So we don't think that that will be impactful overall in term to ROI or ROA or any of those calculations.

再次強調，我們致力於成為最偉大的住宅建築商，並為建立更健康的房屋市場盡自己的一份力量。我們實施的多戶住宅項目確實與我們的核心住宅建築業務非常接近。我們基本上已經建立了相同的產品，但非核心產品代表了待售市場。我們可以在部門層級為出租市場建造它，因為它與我們已經建造的東西相鄰。我們將在第三方平台上建立它。因此，我們認為這不會對 ROI 或 ROA 或任何這些計算產生整體影響。

In terms of technology, technology is a small component of the overall. It's a very important component of how we are building our business. Every element of our business is being modified, re-engineered, rethought, in and around technology, and the way that we actually -- in the way that we actually operate.

就技術而言，技術只是整體的一個小組成部分。這是我們建立業務的一個非常重要的組成部分。我們業務的每個要素都在技術內部和周圍進行修改、重新設計、重新思考，以及我們實際運作的方式。

From our machine, which we have talked about quite a bit, digital marketing to dynamic pricing and everything in between, that machine has been a game-changer. And the way it has been informed by the technology investments and engagements that we have worked through over these past years. The constant flow of technology, imagination, and innovation through our company is going to keep us modern and relevant as we continue to be a better version of ourselves.

從我們已經討論過很多次的機器、數位行銷到動態定價以及介於兩者之間的一切，該機器已經改變了遊戲規則。以及我們過去幾年所進行的技術投資和參與所影響的方式。我們公司不斷湧現的技術、想像和創新將使我們保持現代化和相關性，同時我們將繼續成為更好的自己。

So we will continue to be engaged with technology programming as we go forward. But many of the asset-heavy kinds of investments that has been part of our engagement in the past, those will be recalibrated out of the company and will be focused on things that are direct adjacencies to what we do and that is build affordable housing and fill the supply deficit that exists across the country.

因此，我們將繼續致力於技術編程。但是，我們過去參與的許多重資產投資將在公司之外進行重新調整，並將重點放在與我們所做的事情直接相關的事情上，即建造經濟適用房和填補全國範圍內的供應缺口。

Yeah, and Kenneth, as you know, obviously, it goes without saying that the spin-off will have a material impact not only to ROI but ROE. So we're very focused on that. And just one other comment on multi-family. Not only is it important to us because the business is adjacent to our core business but recall that Stuart mentioned that they were doing in a very capital-efficient way using third-party capital.

是的，肯尼思，如你所知，顯然，不言而喻，分拆不僅會對投資回報率而且對淨資產收益率產生重大影響。所以我們非常關注這一點。這只是關於多戶住宅的另一條評論。這不僅對我們很重要，因為該業務與我們的核心業務相鄰，而且還記得 Stuart 提到他們正在利用第三方資本以非常高效的方式開展業務。

So we feel like it's a complementary business being funded in a very capital-efficient way. Notwithstanding that, though, we are monetizing the Fund I assets. And Stuart mentioned, we are constantly looking at other assets. So it's an enormous focus on the company, and I think you'll see improvement on a go-forward basis.

因此，我們認為這是一項補充業務，並以非常有效率的資本效率方式提供資金。儘管如此，我們仍在將第一基金資產貨幣化。史都華提到，我們一直在尋找其他資產。因此，這是對公司的巨大關注，我認為你會看到未來的進步。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Okay. Thank you, Ken, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to continuing to deliver and providing further information on our progress as we move forward and build the best version of our company as we go forward.

好的。謝謝你，肯，謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在我們前進的過程中繼續提供和提供有關我們進展的更多信息，並在前進的過程中打造我們公司的最佳版本。

So thank you for joining, and we'll see you next time.

感謝您的加入，我們下次再見。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may disconnect your line and please enjoy the rest of your day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您可以斷開線路並享受接下來的一天。