Lazard Inc (LAZ) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Lazard's third quarter and first nine months, 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator instructions) At this time, I will turn the call over to Alexandra Deignan, Lazard's Head of Investor Relations, Treasury and Corporate Sustainability. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 Lazard 2024 年第三季和前九個月的財報電話會議。（接線生指示）此時，我會將電話轉給 Lazard 投資人關係、財務與企業永續發展主管 Alexandra Deignan。請繼續。

Thank you (inaudible) Good morning, everyone and welcome to Lazard's earnings call for the third quarter and first nine months of 2024. I'm Alexandra Deignan, Head of Investor Relations, Treasury and Corporate Sustainability.

謝謝（聽不清楚）大家早安，歡迎參加 Lazard 2024 年第三季和前 9 個月的財報電話會議。我是 Alexandra Deignan，投資人關係、財務與企業永續發展主管。

In addition to today's audio comments, we posted our earnings release on our website. A replay of this call will also be available on our website later today. Before we begin, let me remind you that we may make forward-looking statements about our business and performance.

除了今天的音訊評論外，我們還在網站上發布了收益報告。今天晚些時候，我們的網站上還將提供此次電話會議的重播。在開始之前，請允許我提醒您，我們可能會對我們的業務和業績做出前瞻性陳述。

There are important factors that could cause our actual results, level of activity, performance achievements or other events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements including but not limited to those factors discussed in the company's SEC filings which you can access on our website.

有一些重要因素可能導致我們的實際結果、活動水準、業績成就或其他事件與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異，包括但不限於公司向SEC 提交的文件中討論的那些因素，您可以造訪我們的網站。

Lazard assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of these forward-looking statements and assumes no duty to update them.

拉札德對這些前瞻性陳述的準確性或完整性不承擔任何責任，也不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

Today's discussion also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are meaningful when evaluating the company's performance. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP measures is provided in our earnings release and investor presentation.

今天的討論還包括我們認為在評估公司績效時有意義的某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益發布和投資者介紹中提供了這些非公認會計原則財務指標與可比較公認會計原則指標的調節表。

Posting our call today are Peter Orszag, who's our Chief Executive Officer and Mary Ann Betch, who's our Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared remarks, Peter and Mary Ann will be joined by Evan Russo, Chief Executive Officer of Asset Management, they open the call for questions, I'll now turn the call over to Peter.

今天發布電話會議的是我們的執行長 Peter Orszag 和我們的財務長 Mary Ann Betch。在我們準備好的發言之後，資產管理公司執行長埃文·魯索（Evan Russo）將與彼得和瑪麗安一起，他們開始提問，現在我將把電話轉給彼得。

Thank you, Alie. We are pleased to report another quarter of strong results with total firmwide adjusted net revenue of $2.1 billion for the first nine months of 2024, up 24% from 2023. These results demonstrate the ongoing execution of our Lazard 2030 strategy and our focus on delivering differentiated advice and investment solutions for clients.

謝謝你，阿莉。我們很高興地報告又一個季度的強勁業績，2024 年前9 個月全公司調整後淨收入總額為21 億美元，比2023 年增長24%。致力於提供差異化的服務為客戶提供建議和投資解決方案。

In financial advisory, we achieved strong year-over-year performance in Europe in the third quarter and record revenue in Americas year-to-date, restructuring and liability management was also a meaningful contributor to overall revenue growth which reflects our longstanding excellence in this area. As well as investments made to diversify through expanding our coverage of the creditors side.

在財務諮詢方面，我們第三季在歐洲取得了強勁的同比業績，在美洲今年迄今實現了創紀錄的收入，重組和負債管理也對整體收入成長做出了有意義的貢獻，這反映了我們在這方面的長期卓越表現。以及透過擴大我們對債權人的覆蓋範圍來實現多元化投資。

There are several factors that present opportunity for further momentum. M&A activity continues to rebound with M&A valuation multiples having returned to their 10 year average narrowing the GAAP between buyer and seller expectations. For the market as a whole, M&A announced volume is up over 20% for the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the same period last year.

有幾個因素為進一步發展動能提供了機會。併購活動持續反彈，併購估值倍數已恢復至 10 年平均水平，縮小了買方和賣方預期之間的 GAAP 差距。就整個市場而言，2024 年前三季宣布的併購交易量較去年同期成長了 20% 以上。

Private equity is becoming increasingly active with a significant uptick in sponsor take private activity. Holding periods for P/E backed portfolio companies have been at an all-time high and we believe many of these companies will be brought to market.

私募股權變得越來越活躍，贊助商私有化活動顯著增加。本益比支持的投資組合公司的持有期一直處於歷史最高水平，我們相信其中許多公司將被推向市場。

We are also seeing significant activity in our private equity fundraising business especially in the secondary market as the longer holding period I just noted has increased demand for liquidity. With regard to growing momentum in private markets, we are well positioned due to our investments in hiring and developing teams along with firmwide collaborative efforts to deliver integrated client solutions.

我們也看到私募股權融資業務的大量活動，特別是在二級市場，因為我剛才提到的更長的持有期增加了對流動性的需求。就私人市場的成長勢頭而言，由於我們在招募和發展團隊方面的投資以及全公司範圍內為提供整合客戶解決方案而做出的協作努力，我們處於有利地位。

Year-to-date revenue associated with our overall interactions with private capital, which (inaudible) strategic advisory, restructuring and liability management along with capital raising is up more than 50% compared to the same period last year.

年初至今，我們與私人資本的整體互動（聽不清楚）策略諮詢、重組、負債管理以及融資相關的收入比去年同期增長了 50% 以上。

We believe that additional growth will occur as we continue to expand our efforts and as private markets participate more actively in M&A as the cycle develops. Turning to asset management, we delivered another solid quarter of results, while pursuing our strategy of strengthening our platform. The third quarter ended on a strong note for equity and bond markets with US equity markets posting all-time closing highs.

我們相信，隨著週期的發展，隨著我們繼續加強努力以及私人市場更積極參與併購，將會出現額外的成長。在資產管理方面，我們在實施加強平台策略的同時，又取得了穩健的季度表現。第三季股票和債券市場表現強勁，美國股市創下歷史收盤新高。

Despite secular headwinds affecting active asset management, we believe the reduction in rates and a more appealing outlook for global and emerging market equities, support demand for Lazard's investment strategies going forward.

儘管長期不利因素影響了主動資產管理，但我們相信利率的降低以及全球和新興市場股票更具吸引力的前景將支持拉札德未來投資策略的需求。

During the third quarter, we announced a senior leadership hire for Asset Management to serve as our global head of ETF, as the active ETF market further develops, we are expanding our efforts to offer investors access to our premier investment products through a more efficient vehicle that aligns with their preferences.

第三季度，我們宣布聘請資產管理高級領導層擔任我們的 ETF 全球主管，隨著活躍 ETF 市場的進一步發展，我們正在加大力度，透過更有效率的工具為投資者提供我們優質的投資產品符合他們的喜好。

For example, last quarter, we launched the Lazard Global Listed Infrastructure active ETF to investors in Australia, which builds on the success of one specialty strategies while capturing new business opportunities. Across both of our businesses excellence in serving clients is predicated on our culture and our people.

例如，上個季度，我們向澳洲投資者推出了 Lazard 全球上市基礎設施主動 ETF，該 ETF 建立在專業策略的成功基礎上，同時捕捉新的商機。在我們的兩家企業中，卓越的客戶服務取決於我們的文化和員工。

Periodically we conduct employee engagement surveys to evaluate and enhance our workplace. We are pleased to see substantial improvements in our latest study which took place this month with the best results achieved since launching these engagement surveys. Our colleague's commitment to Lazard's future is evident in our latest study ended our successful performance this year.

我們定期進行員工敬業度調查，以評估和改善我們的工作場所。我們很高興看到本月進行的最新研究取得了重大進展，並取得了自啟動這些參與度調查以來的最佳結果。我們的同事對拉札德未來的承諾在我們最新的研究中得到了體現，該研究結束了我們今年的成功表現。

Let me now turn the call over to Mary Ann to provide further details on our results. And then I'll share more on our performance and outlook.

現在讓我將電話轉給瑪麗安，以提供有關我們結果的更多詳細資訊。然後我將分享更多關於我們的業績和前景的資訊。

Thank you, Peter. Today we reported third quarter firmwide adjusted net revenue of $646 million, up 21% from the same time last year. The increase in firmwide revenue was primarily driven by our financial advisory business. Financial advisory adjusted net revenue was $369 million for the third quarter, up 41% from one year ago and $1.2 billion for the first nine months of 2024, up 39%.

謝謝你，彼得。今天，我們報告第三季全公司調整後淨收入為 6.46 億美元，比去年同期成長 21%。全公司收入的成長主要是由我們的財務諮詢業務所推動的。第三季財務諮詢調整後淨收入為 3.69 億美元，比去年同期成長 41%；2024 年前 9 個月的淨收入為 12 億美元，成長 39%。

Our M&A teams performed well across the firm. Restructuring and liability management also delivered another strong quarter as client demand persists for the Bespoke Capital Structure Solutions, we provide. Lazard participated in a number of marquee transactions in the third quarter. Completed transactions include air products and chemicals sale of its L&G business to Honeywell, KPIs capital partners of Innomotics from Siemens AG, Cupertino Electrics acquisition by Quanta Services and the Vitesco Technologies' merger with Schaeffler.

我們的併購團隊在整個公司表現良好。由於客戶對我們提供的客製化資本結構解決方案的需求持續存在，重組和負債管理也帶來了另一個強勁的季度。拉扎德第三季度參與了多項大型交易。已完成的交易包括將空氣產品和化學品業務出售給霍尼韋爾、西門子股份公司收購Innotics的KPI資本合作夥伴、廣達服務收購Cupertino Electrics以及Vitesco Technologies與舍弗勒的合併。

Recently announced transactions include Kellanova’s acquisition by Mars, Carlyle’s sale of Cogentrix to Quantum Capital and Siete Foods acquisition by Pepsico. We also advised on several capital markets assignments including Altamont Capital Partners, successful Continuation Fund Vehicle with Tacala, Kohlberg and Company is closing of its fund for Kohlberg investors (inaudible) Kingswood Capital Management's closing of its Fund III, Phoenix equity partners continuation fund, health catalyst new term loan provided by Silver Point Finance and Ocado’s capital raise.

最近宣布的交易包括 Kellanova 被瑪氏收購、凱雷將 Cogentrix 出售給 Quantum Capital 以及百事可樂收購 Siete Foods。我們也為多項資本市場業務提供諮詢服務，包括Altamont Capital Partners、與Tacala 成功的持續基金工具、Kohlberg and Company 正在為Kohlberg 投資者關閉其基金（聽不清楚） Kingswood Capital Management 關閉其第三號基金、Phoenix 股權合作夥伴持續基金、健康Silver Point Finance 和 Ocado 融資提供的催化劑新定期貸款。

Turning to asset management, third quarter adjusted net revenue was $272 million, up 4% compared to the third quarter last year. Management fees for the third quarter of $269 million increased 3% compared to the third quarter last year.

資產管理方面，第三季調整後淨收入為2.72億美元，比去年第三季成長4%。第三季管理費為2.69億美元，較去年第三季成長3%。

As of September 30, we reported AUM of $248 billion, 8% higher than September 2023 and 1% higher than June 2024.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的資產管理規模為 2,480 億美元，比 2023 年 9 月成長 8%，比 2024 年 6 月成長 1%。

During the quarter, we had market appreciation of $9 billion, foreign exchange appreciation of $6 billion and net outflows of $12 billion which were largely driven by one client that restructured its developed market assets into passive strategies. Average AUM for the third quarter was $246 billion, 4% higher than the third quarter of 2023. And in line with the second quarter of 2024.

本季度，我們的市場升值 90 億美元，外匯升值 60 億美元，淨流出 120 億美元，這主要是由一位客戶將其已開發市場資產重組為被動策略推動的。第三季平均資產管理規模為 2,460 億美元，比 2023 年第三季成長 4%。

Asset management continued to provide a durable source of revenue during the third quarter. We saw strong performance and ongoing demand across several of our core and specialty products including global listed infrastructure, Japanese equities and emerging market equities and across our quantitative platform.

資產管理在第三季繼續提供持久的收入來源。我們看到了我們的多個核心和專業產品的強勁表現和持續需求，包括全球上市基礎設施、日本股票和新興市場股票以及我們的量化平台。

During the third quarter, new business across our priority strategies and products included funding a Japanese large cap equities custom mandate for a Swiss pension fund and launching a tax transparent fund for global equity franchise for an Asian pension fund.

第三季度，我們的優先策略和產品的新業務包括為瑞士退休基金的日本大盤股票定制授權提供資金，以及為亞洲退休基金的全球股票特許經營推出稅收透明基金。

Interest in emerging markets equity is also growing, highlighted by a large new mandate from a US public fund and the launch of a tailored emerging markets fund for a Scandinavian client.

對新興市場股票的興趣也在增長，美國公共基金的一項大規模新授權以及為斯堪的納維亞客戶推出的客製化新興市場基金凸顯了這一點。

During the third quarter, we were pleased to be selected as a subadvisor to an active passive international equity ETF series utilizing our international quality growth strategy.

第三季度，我們很高興被選為利用我們的國際優質成長策略的主動被動國際股票 ETF 系列的次級顧問。

Now, turning to expenses. For the third quarter our adjusted compensation expense was $426 million, resulting in a ratio of 66% compared to 68.4% for the third quarter one year ago. For the third quarter, our adjusted non-compensation expense was $138 million, down 7% from the second quarter and in line with the prior year quarter. This equated to a ratio of 21.4% compared to 25.9%, one year ago.

現在，轉向開支。第三季調整後的薪資支出為 4.26 億美元，比率為 66%，而一年前第三季為 68.4%。第三季度，調整後的非薪資費用為 1.38 億美元，比第二季度下降 7%，與去年同期持平。這一比例為 21.4%，而一年前為 25.9%。

We remain focused on managing expenses as conditions for our business improve. While at the same time investing in talent and initiatives that support future growth, shifting to taxes, our adjusted effective tax rate for the third quarter with 32.5% compared to 14% last quarter.

隨著業務條件的改善，我們仍然專注於管理費用。同時投資支持未來成長的人才和舉措，轉向稅收，我們調整後的第三季有效稅率為 32.5%，而上季為 14%。

Given the global nature of our business, our adjusted effective tax rate can vary from quarter to quarter due to changes in the geographic mix of our earnings and the impact of discrete items in the quarter in which they occur. Despite these quarterly fluctuations, we continue to expect our full year 2024 effective tax rate to be in the mid to high 20% range.

鑑於我們業務的全球性質，由於我們收入的地理組合的變化以及發生季度的離散項目的影響，我們調整後的有效稅率可能會因季度而異。儘管存在這些季度波動，我們仍然預計 2024 年全年有效稅率將在 20% 的中高範圍內。

Turning to capital allocation in the third quarter of 2024 we returned $51 million to shareholders including a quarterly dividend of $45 million. Year-to-date, we repurchased 1.1 million shares and we currently have share repurchase authorization of $356 million outstanding.

在 2024 年第三季的資本配置方面，我們向股東返還了 5,100 萬美元，其中包括 4,500 萬美元的季度股息。今年迄今，我們回購了 110 萬股股票，目前已授權股票回購金額為 3.56 億美元。

We remain committed to balancing investments in growth with returning capital to our shareholders with a quarterly dividend of 50¢ per share declared yesterday.

我們仍然致力於平衡成長投資與向股東返還資本，昨天宣布派發每股 50 美分的季度股息。

Now I'll turn the call back to Peter.

現在我將把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Mary Ann. Geopolitical risks remain a key consideration for business decisions with increasing client demand for our geopolitical advisory group as a result. Despite uncertainty in the broader landscape, however, we see ongoing improvement in the underlying conditions relevant to our business.

謝謝你，瑪麗安。地緣政治風險仍然是業務決策的關鍵考慮因素，因此客戶對我們地緣政治諮詢團隊的需求不斷增加。然而，儘管更廣泛的前景存在不確定性，但我們看到與我們業務相關的基本條件正在持續改善。

Inflation continues to head in the right direction, as we had predicted earlier in the year with the FED'S rate cut last month and additional cuts expected in the future, we anticipate that our asset management business will benefit over time as investors shift toward more risk oriented active management.

通膨繼續朝著正確的方向發展，正如我們今年早些時候預測的那樣，美聯儲上個月降息，並且預計未來還會進一步降息，我們預計，隨著投資者轉向更加註重風險的投資，我們的資產管理業務將隨著時間的推移而受益主動管理。

We also expect M&A activity to further strengthen in the near to midterm and we are well positioned in financial advisory to meet that moment. As a result, we see an increasingly constructive operating environment for both businesses moving forward.

我們也預計併購活動將在近中期進一步加強，並且我們在財務諮詢方面處於有利地位以迎接這一時刻。因此，我們看到這兩家公司的營運環境日益建設性地向前發展。

If the recovery we have seen over the past year continues at the same pace next year and if our recruiting occurs at the rate envisioned under our Lazard 2030 plan, we currently believe our comp ratio will be at or below 60% in 2025.

如果我們去年看到的復甦明年繼續以同樣的速度進行，並且如果我們的招聘按照 Lazard 2030 計劃設想的速度進行，我們目前相信我們的薪酬比率將在 2025 年達到或低於 60%。

Our ability to achieve this is sensitive to both factors. First, the market environment substantially affects the operating leverage we can deliver. Second, expansion of advisory MDs at a rate of 10 to 15 net per year is a core component of our long term strategy.

我們實現這目標的能力對這兩個因素都很敏感。首先，市場環境極大地影響了我們所能提供的經營槓桿。其次，每年淨增加 10 至 15 名顧問董事總經理是我們長期策略的核心組成部分。

If we find opportunities to hire additional exceptional bankers beyond this rate, we will take them as we believe that hiring to further accelerate our growth objectives is in the long term interest of our shareholders.

如果我們發現有機會聘用超出此標準的其他優秀銀行家，我們將接受這些機會，因為我們相信，聘用員工以進一步加速我們的成長目標符合我們股東的長期利益。

On that topic, we continue to invest in talent and technology to capture growth opportunities. Year-to-date in financial advisory, we have hired 16 new managing directors all consistent with our Lazard 2030 plan. These new hires include senior leaders in restructuring and liability management and capital solutions along with financial sponsors and sovereign and pension fund coverage.

在這個主題上，我們繼續投資人才和技術以抓住成長機會。今年迄今為止，在財務諮詢方面，我們已聘請了 16 名新董事總經理，所有董事均符合我們的 Lazard 2030 計劃。這些新員工包括重組、負債管理和資本解決方案領域的高階領導者，以及金融贊助商、主權基金和退休基金負責人。

In addition, senior hires in targeted sectors include expanding our leading global health care group and building our consumer retail and leisure group along with our media entertainment and sports practice. Our ability to attract new talent to join our existing team of exceptional bankers, helps us build Lazard for the future, by combining institutional knowledge, networks and relationships with new ideas, perspectives and areas of expertise.

此外，目標行業的高級人才招募包括擴大我們領先的全球醫療保健集團、建立我們的消費者零售和休閒集團以及媒體娛樂和體育業務。我們有能力吸引新人才加入我們現有的傑出銀行家團隊，透過將機構知識、網絡和關係與新的想法、觀點和專業領域相結合，幫助我們打造拉札德的未來。

We are increasingly focused on developing and deploying AI tools across the firm. Over the past 12 months, we have implemented tailored instances of ChatGPT and other related tools including a custom gen AI platform, designed to support activities such as research compilation, content creation and benchmarking analysis.

我們越來越注重在整個公司開發和部署人工智慧工具。在過去的 12 個月中，我們實施了 ChatGPT 的客製化實例和其他相關工具，包括客製化的 gen AI 平台，旨在支援研究編譯、內容創建和基準分析等活動。

We see gen AI as a transformative technology that will help us to evolve the way we work, by freeing colleagues to spend more time on higher impact activities and help us to deliver innovative solutions for our clients by harnessing the intellectual capital of our firm.

我們將gen AI 視為一項變革性技術，它將幫助我們發展工作方式，使同事能夠將更多時間花在更具影響力的活動上，並幫助我們利用公司的智力資本為客戶提供創新的解決方案。

Overall, this quarter's results demonstrate the ongoing successful execution of our long term growth strategy against an improving economic and market backdrop. Over the past year, the sense that Lazard is experiencing an inflection point has become [palpable] with tangible results in revenue, productivity and profitability.

總體而言，本季的業績表明，在經濟和市場改善的背景下，我們的長期成長策略持續成功執行。在過去的一年裡，拉札德正在經歷一個拐點的感覺已經變得[顯而易見]，在收入、生產力和盈利能力方面取得了切實的成果。

As I've reflected on my 1 to 12 months as CEO, what I found most satisfying is how quickly Lazard colleagues worldwide have embraced aiming higher and a winning together mentality and how that combination has resulted in substantial momentum behind our ambition for the future.

正如我回顧自己擔任執行長的1 到12 個月一樣，我發現最令人滿意的是Lazard 全球同事如何迅速接受更高的目標和共同獲勝的心態，以及這種結合如何為我們未來的雄心壯志帶來巨大的動力。

That will open the call to questions.

這將開始提問。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

Brendan O'Brien, Wolfe Research.

布倫丹‧奧布萊恩，沃爾夫研究中心。

Good morning and thank. You for taking my question. I guess for my question. I just wanted to drop it, (technical difficulty) below 60%.

早安，謝謝。你回答我的問題。我想對於我的問題。我只是想把它（技術難度）降到 60% 以下。

You're breaking up slightly. We try one more time.

你們有點分手了。我們再試一次。

Can you hear me now?

現在你能聽到我說話嗎？

Better.

更好的。

Okay, sorry about that. So I just want to drill down on the comp ratio commentary a bit. It was encouraging to hear the commitment to getting (technical difficulty) but I just wanted to understand what type of revenue growth is needed to get there to be continuing at this point (inaudible) a year on year growth rate that you see year-to-date or is there like a productivity have we need to be looking at, yeah any (inaudible) you can provide, there would be helpful.

好吧，對此感到抱歉。所以我只想深入了解一下補償比率評論。聽到（技術難度）的承諾令人鼓舞，但我只是想了解需要什麼類型的收入增長才能實現這一點（聽不清楚）您看到的逐年增長率-日期或者是否有我們需要關注的生產力，是的，您可以提供的任何（聽不清楚），都會有幫助。

Sure, again, you broke up slightly, but I will do my best at guessing what the question was and answer that. As I said, and I'll just elaborate, I'll just reinforce if -- we have seen significant momentum building frankly, on both sides of the business, the M&A and advisory side is obviously historically, more volatile. So focusing on that for a moment. If the M&A market continues to develop as we currently anticipate, and that includes the cycle spreading into private equity increasingly, that's part of the cycle developing. That's part one of the preconditions for getting back to 60%.

當然，你們再次分手了，但我會盡力猜測問題是什麼並回答。正如我所說，我將詳細闡述，我將強調，坦白說，我們已經看到業務雙方正在形成巨大的勢頭，從歷史上看，併購和諮詢方面顯然更加不穩定。所以暫時關注這一點。如果併購市場繼續按照我們目前的預期發展，並且包括週期越來越多地擴展到私募股權，那麼這就是週期發展的一部分。這是恢復到 60% 的先決條件之一。

And the second is that, we have been doing very well at lateral hiring, as I mentioned before, 16 managing directors added this year, fully consistent with hitting the 10 to 15 net (inaudible) is under our Lazard 2030 plan and in the areas that we are most excited about capturing additional wallet share.

第二個是，我們在橫向招聘方面一直做得很好，正如我之前提到的，今年增加了16 名董事總經理，這與我們的Lazard 2030 計劃和以下領域的10 至15 名淨人數（聽不清楚）完全一致我們最興奮的是獲得額外的錢包份額。

Anyway, I don't know what that was. But if -- so the second condition is that we continue at that pace of hiring. And I just wanted to flag that if we were to be presented with opportunities to higher additional really talented bankers even above and beyond the baseline for building up the Lazard 2030 plan, we would grab that opportunity and I would say that in the marketplace, the sense that Lazard is at an inflection point is growing and so we are being presented with lots of interesting opportunities for bringing additional bankers on board.

無論如何，我不知道那是什麼。但如果——那麼第二個條件是我們繼續保持這樣的招募速度。我只是想指出，如果我們有機會接觸更多真正有才華的銀行家，甚至超出製定拉扎德 2030 計劃的基線，我們會抓住這個機會，我想說，在市場上，人們越來越感覺到拉扎德正處於拐點，因此我們有很多有趣的機會來吸引更多銀行家加入。

If there were a match between where the talent were available and where we see the most opportunity, we would take advantage of that, even if it meant that our comp ratio came down a bit less than anticipated. So bottom line is, if the market develops as it looks like it will and as it has been, and this year has largely played out as we expected.

如果有人才的地方和我們看到最多機會的地方之間存在匹配，我們就會利用這一點，即使這意味著我們的薪酬比下降略低於預期。因此，底線是，市場是否像看起來那樣和過去那樣發展，今年的情況基本上如我們預期的那樣發展。

And if we remain on the kind of baseline path for Lazard 2030 in terms of hiring, but don't go beyond that. Those are the conditions under which we currently anticipate that we'll be able to achieve 60% or below in the (inaudible)

如果我們在招募方面保持 Lazard 2030 的基準路徑，但不要超出這個範圍。在這些條件下，我們目前預計我們能夠實現 60% 或以下的目標（聽不清楚）

Great. Thanks for taking my questions and apologies for the phone issues.

偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題並對電話問題表示歉意。

That's okay. Thank you.

沒關係。謝謝。

Brennan Hawken, UBS.

布倫南霍肯，瑞銀集團。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Hey, how are you Peter? So love to follow up on that. So really get you on the revenue side and what you're thinking about plus the recruiting side for that 60%. Is there anything that you guys are considering doing on the expense side to provide you with greater flexibility to deliver that kind of magnitude of comp leverage 600 basis points is rather substantial in a year.

早安.感謝您提出我的問題。嘿，彼得，你好嗎？所以喜歡跟進這一點。因此，請真正了解收入方面以及您正在考慮的內容，再加上這 60% 的招聘方面。你們正在考慮在費用方面做些什麼來為你們提供更大的靈活性，以在一年內提供這種程度的補償槓桿 600 個基點是相當可觀的。

So we have you guys been looking at maybe accelerating some of the deferred, or making any other changes to drive greater flex?

所以，你們一直在考慮加速一些推遲的項目，或者做出任何其他改變來推動更大的靈活性？

Well, I'll say a couple of things and then Mary Ann, may weigh in here also. What I would say is the following that there is substantial operating leverage that we see in the business from expanded activity levels. I've talked about this before, especially as we continue to raise managing director productivity levels.

好吧，我會說幾件事，然後瑪麗安也可能在這裡發表意見。我想說的是，我們從擴大的活動水平中看到了業務的巨大營運槓桿。我之前已經談過這一點，特別是當我們繼續提高總經理的生產力水平時。

So I just want to double click on that for a second because I think it's really important. This is a very important vector for us to again, obtain that operating leverage and bring the comp ratio down. Because basically, the non-MD resources that each MD requires doesn't vary that much whether they're more or less productive.

所以我只想雙擊它，因為我認為它非常重要。對我們來說，這是一個非常重要的向量，可以再次獲得營運槓桿並降低補償比率。因為基本上，每個 MD 所需的非 MD 資源無論生產力更高或更低，變化都不會太大。

And so as you move up the productivity scale at the MD level, not that non-MD expense is doesn't move that much in the numerator and the denominator goes up. And so the ratio comes down quite quickly. That is a very important driver of obtaining additional reductions in the comp ratio. In addition, obviously, since we're talking about GAAP comp here, that is affected by deferral rates and by many other factors. And so I'll let Mary Ann comment on that.

因此，當您提高 MD 等級的生產力規模時，並不是說非 MD 費用在分子中沒有太大變化，而分母卻上升了。所以這個比率下降得很快。這是進一步降低補償比率的一個非常重要的驅動因素。此外，顯然，由於我們在這裡討論的是 GAAP 補償，因此它受到遞延率和許多其他因素的影響。所以我會讓瑪麗安對此發表評論。

Yeah. So I think the -- bringing the deferral rate down this year, as we've said in past calls is definitely part of our plan and that's good for our employees and also good for the 2025 ratio. How much we'll be able to do that is going to depend on where we land for in terms of revenue for the year.

是的。因此，我認為，正如我們在過去的電話中所說，今年降低遞延率絕對是我們計劃的一部分，這對我們的員工有利，也有利於 2025 年的比率。我們能夠做到多少將取決於我們今年的收入狀況。

I would also just add on the productivity point, some of the new hires that we've made this year I would expect and Peter hopefully you agree with us that they're going to ramp up a lot faster than the typical that, three year period that we've generally seen with new hires.

我還要補充一下生產力點，我預計今年我們聘用的一些新員工，彼得希望你同意我們的觀點，他們的成長速度將比典型的三年快得多。時期。

(multiple speakers)

（多個發言者）

So I think we're going to get even more of that leverage on the new higher front, than we've seen in the past. And then I would also just remind you that this is the first year, we're going to have kind of the full year impact of the head count reductions that we did last year.

因此，我認為我們將在新的更高層面上獲得比過去更多的影響力。然後我還要提醒大家，這是第一年，我們去年的裁員會對全年產生一定的影響。

Ryan Kenny, Morgan Stanley.

瑞恩‧肯尼，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning. So on the asset management business, it came up that interest in emerging market equities is growing. Can you give us some color on what's driving that is that purely a function of rate cuts in the weaker dollar? Is it sustainable? Any color that would be helpful? Thanks.

嗨，早安。因此，在資產管理業務方面，人們對新興市場股票的興趣正在增長。您能給我們解釋一下是什麼推動了這純粹是美元疲軟降息的結果嗎？它可持續嗎？有什麼顏色會有幫助嗎？謝謝。

Yeah, I'll be very brief and then I'll let Evan comment more. I think the combination of ongoing rate cuts in the future will help to boost demand for emerging market equities. I'd also note that our performance has been strong and so that, over time that also attracts attention. Evan, do you want to?

是的，我會非常簡短，然後我會讓埃文發表更多評論。我認為未來持續降息將有助於提振新興市場股票的需求。我還要指出的是，我們的表現一直很強勁，因此隨著時間的推移，這也會引起人們的注意。埃文，你願意嗎？

Look, I think we've talked about this for a little bit. I mean, clients have been under allocated and are becoming more and more under allocated especially as us markets continue to strengthen relative to global markets and especially emerging markets over the past several years.

聽著，我想我們已經討論過這個問題了。我的意思是，客戶的分配一直不足，而且分配越來越不足，特別是隨著美國市場相對於全球市場，尤其是新興市場在過去幾年中持續走強。

And so I think you are seeing the beginnings and I think at this early stage, we're seeing the beginnings of some of the allocators, larger institutional clients thinking about where there's potential upside of the future relative to current levels and seeing a little bit more balance in the way that they want to manage their portfolios.

因此，我認為您正在看到開始，我認為在這個早期階段，我們看到一些分配者、較大的機構客戶開始思考相對於當前水平未來的潛在上行空間，並看到了一些他們希望以更加平衡的方式管理自己的投資組合。

(inaudible) It's early. But for several years, we weren't seeing a whole lot of interest earlier this year, we talked about the conversations levels picking up. We saw a few mandates coming through now, but I think this is going to be a trend, we'll see play out over the next year or two. And I think as Peter mentioned, some of that has to do with rate cuts a little bit relating to allocation decisions around where opportunity sets are and the valuation levels of those markets.

（聽不清楚）還早。但幾年來，我們並沒有看到今年早些時候有太多興趣，我們談到了對話層面的上升。我們現在看到了一些授權，但我認為這將成為一種趨勢，我們將在未來一兩年看到這一趨勢。我認為正如彼得所提到的，其中一些與降息有關，這與圍繞機會集和這些市場的估值水平的分配決策有關。

And so as markets continue to develop and as we get more certainty around rate paths and geopolitical events, I think there's definitely more opportunities within the emerging market space over the coming years.

因此，隨著市場的不斷發展，隨著我們對利率路徑和地緣政治事件越來越確定，我認為未來幾年新興市場領域肯定會有更多機會。

James Yaro, Goldman Sachs.

詹姆斯·亞羅，高盛。

Good morning and thanks for taking my question. I think we've started to see a bit of a divergence in macro trends across the US and Europe. How is this weighing on the M&A environment in Europe relative to the US.

早安，感謝您提出我的問題。我認為我們已經開始看到美國和歐洲的宏觀趨勢存在一些分歧。相對於美國，這對歐洲的併購環境有何影響？

Yeah, it's really interesting. Thanks for the question. I actually just returned from a week and a half in Europe. And so I had a very high level of interaction with both corporate and government leaders across the continent. I would say the macro environment in the United States is more auspicious than in Europe.

是的，這真的很有趣。謝謝你的提問。實際上我剛從歐洲待了一周半回來。因此，我與整個非洲大陸的企業和政府領導人進行了非常高水準的互動。我想說美國的宏觀環境比歐洲更有利。

And that's because of underlying structural challenges in Europe that were at the heart of the Draghi report, exacerbated by higher energy prices associated with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And the challenge to whether exporting to China remains a viable economic strategy going forward.

這是因為歐洲潛在的結構性挑戰是德拉吉報告的核心，而俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭導致的能源價格上漲加劇了這項挑戰。向中國出口是否仍是未來可行的經濟戰略面臨的挑戰。

That having been said, the macro environment is only one of the inputs into our businesses, there are many activity levels across sectors can vary for lots of different reasons, whether you're growing at a 0.5%, -- I mean, the delta here is growing at a half a percent versus 2% or 3% on the macro level.

話雖這麼說，宏觀環境只是我們業務的輸入因素之一，各個行業的許多活動水平可能會因多種不同原因而有所不同，無論您的增長率是0.5%，——我的意思是，三角洲這裡的成長率是 0.5%，而宏觀層面的成長率是 2% 或 3%。

And that can be swamped by sectoral trends. And one of the interesting things that we've seen is we actually saw in this quarter, stronger growth on the advisory side in Europe than elsewhere despite that macroeconomic environment. And so that just underscores the point that I've been making, we also anticipate that our deep local roots in Europe and in the United States which are -- as you know the two largest markets will be beneficial as the geopolitical environment evolves as one example.

這可能會被行業趨勢所淹沒。我們看到的有趣的事情之一是，我們實際上在本季度看到，儘管宏觀經濟環境如此，但歐洲諮詢的成長比其他地方更強勁。因此，這只是強調了我一直在強調的一點，我們也預計，隨著地緣政治環境的發展，我們在歐洲和美國的深厚本地根基——正如你所知，這兩個最大的市場將是有益的例子。

One response, if there were hypothetically additional tariffs imposed in the United States, one -- incentive that creates is to try to invest further in the US. And so there are many European companies that are looking at that potential and we are very well positioned to help them sort through the various scenarios and identify potential targets, et cetera. Because again, we are really the only independent advisory firm that has deep local roots, both in Europe and in the United States.

一種回應是，如果美國假設徵收額外關稅，那麼所產生的誘因就是嘗試在美國進一步投資。因此，有許多歐洲公司正在關注這項潛力，我們非常有能力幫助他們整理各種場景並確定潛在目標等。因為，我們確實是唯一一家在歐洲和美國都具有深厚本地根基的獨立顧問公司。

Very clear. Thank you so much.

非常清楚。太感謝了。

Devin Ryan, JMP.

德文·瑞安，JMP。

Hey, good morning, Peter, Marie Ann, and Evan, how are you?

嘿，早安，彼得、瑪麗安和艾文，你們好嗎？

Morning?

早晨？

So question just on advisory and really kind of think the potential. So, the first nine months, obviously your second best ever for advisory, you seem to be outperforming a number of firms we track just when we look at kind of where you are in your recovery, your revenues is up 40% year-to-date in advisory.

因此，僅就諮詢問題提出疑問，並真正思考其潛力。所以，前 9 個月，顯然是你們有史以來第二好的顧問公司，你們的表現似乎超過了我們追蹤的許多公司，當我們看看你們的復甦情況時，你們的收入同比增長了 40%。諮詢日期。

So you just love to get a little bit of a flavor for what you would attribute the difference to. And then also how you would frame what a normalization for Lazard looks like, whether it's level of upside from here to more normal or productivity per MD.

所以你只是想了解你將差異歸因於什麼。然後還有你如何建構拉札德的正常化是什麼樣子，無論是從這裡到更正常的上行水準還是每個總經理的生產力。

And I appreciate, I know it's hard to say what a baseline is and it's a moving target as you add bankers. But you're trying to get a sense of kind of that order of magnitude because I know there's a cyclical aspect, but your advisor revenues have recovered quite a bit and you're sitting close to a record. So just love to think about where we can get to from here. Thanks.

我很感激，我知道很難說基線是什麼，而且當你添加銀行家時，它是一個不斷變化的目標。但你正試圖了解這個數量級，因為我知道存在週期性方面，但你的顧問收入已經恢復了相當多，而且你正接近創紀錄的水平。所以只是想想我們可以從這裡到達哪裡。謝謝。

Sure. So I mean, what I would say is, it is our belief that we have more upside potential than others in either the independent advisory space or among the bulge brackets. And so we believe you are seeing the early signs of that. And the reason that we have lots of upside potential is partly just what I had mentioned before, which is we have deep local roots, both in the United States and Europe we have a significant potential which is embodied in the Lazard 2030 plan on a sector by sector basis in terms of where the opportunities are.

當然。所以我的意思是，我想說的是，我們相信，無論是在獨立諮詢領域還是在膨脹領域，我們都比其他人擁有更多的上升潛力。因此，我們相信您已經看到了這種情況的早期跡象。我們擁有巨大上升潛力的部分原因正如我之前提到的，我們在當地有深厚的根基，無論是在美國還是歐洲，我們都擁有巨大的潛力，這體現在拉扎德 2030 年計劃中的一個部門根據機會所在的行業。

So lots of upside from that perspective. The other big component that I would just highlight is historically, at least in the United States, Lazard had less exposure to private capital than others may have. We have now built out an infrastructure and the ecosystem in which we can touch alternative asset managers and private capital in multiple different ways from restructuring liability management to fundraising to Lazard capital solutions, sponsor coverage to traditional private equity M&A and that feeds on itself and is another source of growth for us as that part of the marketplace expands.

從這個角度來看，有很多好處。我要強調的另一個重要部分是，從歷史上看，至少在美國，拉札德對私人資本的曝險比其他公司少。我們現在已經建立了一個基礎設施和生態系統，在這個基礎設施和生態系統中，我們可以透過多種不同的方式接觸另類資產管理公司和私人資本，從重組負債管理到籌款，再到Lazard 資本解決方案，從贊助商覆蓋到傳統的私募股權併購，並且這種方式可以自我維持，隨著這部分市場的擴大，我們的另一個成長來源。

In addition to the more traditional large cap M&A that we also see lots of upsided. So in terms of then capturing that, that's a combination of hiring, which we've mentioned other measures to make sure that we are collaborating and working very effectively as teams across the platform.

除了更傳統的大盤併購之外，我們還看到了許多好處。因此，就捕捉這一點而言，這是招募的結合，我們已經提到了其他措施，以確保我們作為一個團隊在整個平台上非常有效地協作和工作。

New norms around the fees that we charge, new norms around mandate selection. All of that is contributing to contributing to the momentum that we've been experiencing. And we see lots of additional upside potential as we continue to execute in these ways. And in fact, I think again, I use the phrase inflection point on purpose because as these pieces come together, it's not -- they increasingly build on and reinforce one another.

關於我們收取的費用的新規範，關於任務選擇的新規範。所有這些都有助於推動我們所經歷的勢頭。當我們繼續以這些方式執行時，我們看到了許多額外的上升潛力。事實上，我再次想，我故意使用「拐點」這個詞，因為當這些部分組合在一起時，它們並不是——它們越來越多地相互構建和加強。

And I think again, the reason we mentioned the glint survey results or the internal results is you can sense that internally, people can feel that we are on the move and that they like the direction that we are moving.

我再次認為，我們提到閃光調查結果或內部結果的原因是你可以感覺到，在內部，人們可以感覺到我們正在前進，他們喜歡我們前進的方向。

Yeah. All right. Very clear. Thanks.

是的。好的。非常清楚。謝謝。

Mike Brown, Wells Fargo Securities.

麥克布朗，富國銀行證券。

Hey, good morning, everyone. I had to ask a question about the ownership [base] here. So earlier this year you converted from a publicly traded partnership to C Corp, now we're 10 months in. So I just would be interested to hear how that, conversion has gone compared relative to your expectations and in terms of investor interest, engagement and overall the ownership base and then how could it evolve from here? What are some of the index implications that could actually continue to help that ownership base evolve from here? Thank you.

嘿，大家早安。我不得不問一個關於這裡的所有權[基礎]的問題。今年早些時候，你們從一家公開交易的合夥企業轉變為 C Corp，現在已經 10 個月了。因此，我只是想知道，與您的期望相比，以及在投資者興趣、參與度和整體所有權基礎方面，轉換情況如何，然後它會如何發展？有哪些指數影響實際上可以繼續幫助所有權基礎從這裡發展？謝謝。

Sure. We've been very pleased with the reaction to the C Corp conversion. Both because one of the motivations was additional liquidity in our daily turnover, share turnover and we've seen that but perhaps more fundamentally and more importantly to open up the idea of owning Lazard to investors that had previously not considered it because of our previous structure.

當然。我們對 C 公司轉型的反應非常滿意。兩者都是因為動機之一是我們每日營業額、股票營業額的額外流動性，我們已經看到了這一點，但也許更根本、更重要的是向投資者開放了擁有拉扎德的想法，而這些投資者之前由於我們之前的結構而沒有考慮過這一點。

So we have been oversubscribed at every IR conference that we've been going to, which is fantastic. We've had multiple meetings with lots of different potential investors and we've seen a variety of new investors take a hard look at Lazard and decide that there was a lot of outside potential. I'd call out, for example, capital group as one new shareholder that it was very well regarded in the space, but there are many, many others.

因此，我們參加的每一次 IR 會議都獲得了超額認購，這真是太棒了。我們與許多不同的潛在投資者進行了多次會議，我們看到許多新投資者認真審視了拉扎德，並認為它有很大的外部潛力。例如，我會指出，資本集團作為一個新股東，在該領域受到了很高的評價，但還有很多很多其他股東。

So we continue to be very, very active in terms of our discussions with both existing and potential investors. And I think the C Corp helped unlock that. Now with regard to the index inclusion, that's just the sort of additional upside potential from the conversion. And if it were to occur, great, but we're not, we see lots of upside even outside of that and fundamentally the C Corp conversion made sense for us even just given the kind of reaction that we've been getting from new investors and again, I would just view the index inclusion as -- any index inclusion as potential upside beyond that?

因此，我們繼續非常非常積極地與現有和潛在投資者進行討論。我認為 C 公司幫助解決了這個問題。現在就指數納入而言，這只是轉換帶來的額外上行潛力。如果它發生了，那就太好了，但我們沒有，即使除此之外，我們也看到了很多好處，從根本上說，即使考慮到我們從新投資者那裡得到的反應，C Corp 轉換對我們來說也是有意義的再說一次，我只是將指數納入視為──除此之外，任何指數納入都有潛在的上漲空間嗎？

Okay, great. Thank you for all the color here.

好的，太好了。感謝這裡所有的顏色。

Brennan Hawken, UBS.

布倫南霍肯，瑞銀集團。

Hello again. Thanks for taking my follow up. Just one more question on the sub 60%, Peter and thanks in advance for your patience. But could you maybe you gave a lot of color on the advisory (inaudible) could you -- maybe what are the baseline assumptions on the asset management side of the business for revenue?

又好。感謝您接受我的跟進。Peter，還有一個關於 60% 以下的問題，提前感謝您的耐心等待。但是，您是否可以在諮詢中提供很多色彩（聽不清楚），您可以 - 也許資產管理業務收入方面的基線假設是什麼？

I think I said if the next 12 months develop basically as the previous 12 months have, so you can more or less take that as the basis on the asset side.

我想我說如果未來12個月的發展基本上和前12個月一樣，那麼你或多或少可以把它當作資產方面的基礎。

Great. And then, and then you guys, there was a, there was a large lumpy outflow during the quarter. But my sense is that it was a bit lower fee rate, could you maybe help us walk through some of the fee rate impact from that and what we should be expecting for the next quarter because it (inaudible)

偉大的。然後，然後你們，本季出現了大規模的資金外流。但我的感覺是，費率有點低，您能否幫助我們了解由此產生的一些費率影響以及我們對下一季的預期，因為它（聽不清楚）

I'll start and then I'll let Evan come in on that. Look, anytime this was one large, one mandate. And so anytime you have AUM from a particular client that is larger, you'd expect the fed rate to be lower. And then in addition, the particular strategy or fund that it was in also tends to have somewhat lower rates than other strategies.

我先開始，然後讓艾文參與進來。看，任何時候這都是一項重大的、一項任務。因此，只要您的特定客戶的資產管理規模較大，您就會預期聯準會利率會較低。此外，它所在的特定策略或基金的利率也往往比其他策略低一些。

So you put the two together and that outflow mechanically would raise the average fee rate because it was -- because of where it was located and because it was relatively large, but we do view it as idiosyncratic and not reflective of kind of the underlying steady state. Evan, do you want to add anything?

所以你把兩者放在一起，資金流出會機械地提高平均費率，因為它是因為它位於哪裡並且因為它相對較大，但我們確實認為它是特殊的，並且不能反映潛在穩定的類型狀態。艾文，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yeah, sure, Brian. So on the -- sort of average fee rates for the quarter, as you mentioned, I think as Peter just said, the one large flow sort of certainly had an impact, the business mix as we always say is going to be the biggest driver quarter to quarter. We did have some outflows in the US versus some inflows and some of the specialty products that we have such as Japanese equities and others.

是的，當然，布萊恩。因此，就本季的平均費率而言，正如您所提到的，我認為正如彼得剛才所說，大流量肯定會產生影響，我們總是說業務組合將成為最大的推動因素季度到季度。我們在美國確實有一些資金流出，而有一些資金流入，以及我們擁有的一些特色產品，例如日本股票和其他產品。

So that mix also worked in our favor this month and a little bit more funds versus [SMAs], I wouldn't call that significant, but usage funds were a little bit higher relative to SMAs this quarter. So a few things sort of contributed to keeping that flat year over year and up on a sequential basis.

因此，本月這種組合也對我們有利，並且與 [SMA] 相比，資金多了一點，我不認為這有多重要，但本季度使用資金相對於 SMA 稍高一些。因此，有一些因素導致了同比持平和環比增長。

I'd say you go forward, look, I think the trends are probably in line with where we've been in the past. I think you can expect a little bit more compression just because US markets continue to outperform emerging markets and global equities. And so as that proportion of the business goes up just because of market returns and performance there, you're obviously going to drift a little bit lower in the fee rate. So those are some of the puts and takes there. Hopefully that helps you give you some context of how to think about the average (inaudible)

我想說，你繼續看，我認為趨勢可能與我們過去的情況一致。我認為你可以預期會出現更多的壓縮，因為美國市場的表現持續優於新興市場和全球股市。因此，當該業務的比例僅僅因為那裡的市場回報和表現而上升時，你的費率顯然會稍微降低一些。這些是其中的一些看跌期權和看跌期權。希望這可以幫助您了解如何思考平均值（聽不清楚）

Great, thanks for taking my follow up.

太好了，感謝您接受我的跟進。

Aiden Hall, KBW.

艾登·霍爾，KBW。

Great. Thanks for taking my question everyone. Just for Mary Ann, I heard your comments about the expectation to potentially based on the environment, take care of maybe some more deferred comp in the fourth quarter. But just curious how you're thinking about -- how we should be thinking about the comp ratio. Like is there a chance that that actually ticks up in 4Q as you opportunistically take care of some of that? Or do you think given the expectations for the revenue environment, you could make progress there while holding the comp ratio any color, how to be thinking about that.

偉大的。感謝大家提出我的問題。就瑪麗安而言，我聽到了您對可能基於環境的期望的評論，可能會在第四季度處理一些更多的延期補償。但只是好奇你是如何考慮的——我們應該如何考慮補償比率。就像你機會主義地處理其中的一些問題一樣，這種情況是否有可能在第四季真正上升？或者，您認為考慮到對收入環境的預期，您可以在保持任何顏色的補償比率的情況下取得進展，如何考慮這一點。

Sure, thanks for the follow up. So I would think about it as sort of, this is our best estimate at this point in time. There's always uncertainty about where the fourth quarter is going to land. You always have some timing risk on larger deals that could have a big impact. But based on our best estimate today, that is our ratio. And so I think it's unlikely that it ticks up. I think it's also probably unlikely that we do much better just given the intent to do as much as we can on the deferrals frankly.

當然，感謝您的跟進。所以我認為這是我們目前最好的估計。第四季的走勢始終存在不確定性。對於可能產生重大影響的大型交易，您總是會面臨一些時機風險。但根據我們今天的最佳估計，這就是我們的比率。所以我認為它不太可能上升。我認為，坦白說，鑑於我們打算在延期問題上盡我們所能，我們也不太可能做得更好。

Appreciate that. Maybe just a quick one for Evan. Here a lot of the optimism around the asset management business last day of the month, any kind of color on how organic growth trends have fared so far and any visibility through kind of the through year end.

很欣賞這一點。也許對埃文來說只是一個快速的過程。本月最後一天，人們對資產管理業務抱有許多樂觀情緒，對迄今為止有機成長的趨勢如何表現以及整個年底的任何可見性都有不同的看法。

Yeah. So look, I'd say, Peter mentioned this in his remarks earlier, but we believe that it's going to take some time as the rate environment as higher rates come down to get some of that money off the cash flow. So we are seeing slower gross inflows this year and I think that trend is going to continue as you get towards year end.

是的。所以，我想說，彼得在早些時候的演講中提到了這一點，但我們認為，隨著利率環境的提高，利率下降，需要一段時間才能從現金流中取出部分資金。因此，我們今年看到總流入放緩，我認為隨著年底的臨近，這種趨勢將持續下去。

Also some of the comments we made earlier, but there's certainly a big focus in the market right now on the US market and specifically in style for growth, so growth, growth style in the US market relative to international global emerging markets, which is predominance of our business and also the style that we manage to relative value and quality.

還有我們之前發表的一些評論，但目前市場肯定非常關注美國市場，特別是增長風格，因此美國市場的增長風格相對於國際全球新興市場而言是主導地位我們的業務以及我們管理相對價值和質量的風格。

And so you put all that together and so we would expect it to remain a little bit more lumpier and choppier until year end because you're not going to see that new inflows, the gross inflows sort of rebound, which we would expect more into the end of this year.

所以你把所有這些放在一起，所以我們預計到年底它會保持更加不穩定和波動，因為你不會看到新的資金流入，總資金流入有所反彈，我們預計會更多地出現反彈今年年底。

So I would expect the October sort of flows to go more in line, maybe a little bit more outflows relative to where we've been on average this year. And as we get towards the end of the year, beginning next year, as those allocations start to broaden as we start to see yields start to fall and the money market rates from that cash coming off the sidelines. I think you'll see gross inflows rebound and hopefully move more towards a balance level as we get into next year.

因此，我預計 10 月的資金流將更加一致，相對於今年的平均流出量，可能會更多。當我們接近年底時，從明年開始，隨著這些分配開始擴大，我們開始看到收益率開始下降，而這些現金的貨幣市場利率也開始脫離場外。我認為您會看到總流入反彈，並有望在進入明年時進一步趨向平衡水平。

Appreciate the color. Thanks for taking my questions.

欣賞顏色。感謝您回答我的問題。

James Yaro, Goldman Sachs.

詹姆斯·亞羅，高盛。

Well, thanks for taking the follow up. Just quickly on the non-comps. I think your non-comp system is quite strong in the quarter, maybe you just speak to the non-comp growth trajectory from here. Anything that we should read into the lower non-comp level? Did you find perhaps some additional non-comp cost saves versus previous expectations?

嗯，感謝您的跟進。只是快速地處理非比較。我認為您的非比較系統在本季度相當強勁，也許您只是從這裡談論非比較成長軌跡。對於較低的非補償級別，我們應該了解什麼？您是否發現與先前的預期相比，可能會節省一些額外的非補償成本？

Yeah, I'll take that one. So remember there's seasonality here in the non-comp line. Third quarter is typically our lightest quarter and the fourth quarter is typically our heaviest quarter. And so I would expect that pattern to hold this year. We have been disciplined in finding cuts to offset the increases that would normally go along with the growth that we've had in the business, including travel, including recruiting costs, including investments in technology.

是的，我會接受那個。因此請記住，非補償產品線存在季節性。第三季通常是我們最輕的季度，第四季通常是我們最重的季度。因此，我預計這種模式今年仍將持續。我們一直嚴格要求削減開支，以抵消通常隨著業務成長而出現的成長，包括差旅、招募成本和技術投資。

So I think we've done a pretty good job of sort of offsetting those with more discipline in other areas. If you're looking at the full year, I would think we'll probably end up a tick or two on a full year basis in dollar terms. And so that's how I think about the remainder of the year.

因此，我認為我們在抵消其他領域更嚴格的規定方面做得相當不錯。如果你看全年，我認為我們最終可能會以美元計算全年價格上漲一兩點。這就是我對今年剩餘時間的看法。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Devin Ryan, Citizens JMP.

Devin Ryan，公民 JMP。

Thanks a lot. Just a philosophical question on asset management, given some of the headwinds in that industry more broadly. So obviously, with that people are very focused on incremental investment and returns on investment that are being made and you guys spoke about some newer areas of focus, obviously actively manage EPS and some others.

多謝。考慮到該行業更廣泛的一些不利因素，這只是一個關於資產管理的哲學問題。顯然，人們非常關注增量投資和正在進行的投資回報，你們談到了一些新的重點領域，顯然是積極管理每股盈餘和其他一些領域。

And so I appreciate that there's a level of scale that's necessary before new businesses start contributing positively. And so I just want to think about kind of how you guys are framing the need to grow and perhaps invest in the long term without diluting current earnings power in either that segment or just from one. Thanks.

因此，我很欣賞新企業在開始做出積極貢獻之前必須達到一定的規模。因此，我只想思考一下你們如何制定成長的需求，或許進行長期投資，而不削弱該細分市場或僅某一細分市場當前的獲利能力。謝謝。

I can start and then maybe Evan, we'll have some additional commentary. Look, I think as we've [particularly] before, I think we need to think about the market in different segments. So there are the core strategies which historically have been the focus of Lazard Asset Management. These are the base of many investors portfolios in particular areas.

我可以開始了，然後也許埃文，我們會有一些額外的評論。聽著，我認為正如我們之前（特別是）之前所做的那樣，我認為我們需要考慮不同細分市場的市場。因此，核心策略歷來都是拉札德資產管理公司關注的焦點。這些是許多投資者在特定領域投資組合的基礎。

And in that category, it's very important to be investing in research and distribution and in new ways of delivering the product, for example (inaudible) So we're doing all of that and then making those investments. There's also then a second category which I would call specialty funds or specialty strategies where the theory of the case for active management going forward even in public markets is very strong and we're making additional investments there too.

在這個類別中，投資於研究和分銷以及交付產品的新方式非常重要，例如（聽不清楚）所以我們正在做所有這些，然後進行這些投資。還有第二類，我稱之為專業基金或專業策略，即使在公開市場上，主動管理的理論也非常強大，我們也在這方面進行了額外的投資。

So examples would include systematic (inaudible) quant, some of our specialized products like global listed infrastructure, maybe even Japanese equities would fall under that bucket. And then the third category is things outside of public market investing.

因此，例子包括系統（聽不清楚）量化、我們的一些專業產品（例如全球上市基礎設施），甚至日本股票也可能屬於這一類。第三類是公開市場投資以外的東西。

So wealth management, private assets. We are looking at all three categories, I would say with regard to organic growth, that will be disproportionately in the first two. And the inorganic activity that we continue to evaluate would be disproportionately in the third category.

所以財富管理，私人資產。我們正在考慮所有三個類別，我想說的是關於有機成長，這在前兩個類別中將不成比例。我們繼續評估的無機活動將不成比例地屬於第三類。

I think it's a great summary. And look, I think we're taking steps in all of those areas. We mentioned active ETF is part of our strategic plan for buildout of active ETF products in 2025. We think this is an important and growing area of the moment, growing vehicle for clients, certainly gaining a lot of traction, we're excited that as we announced, we've hired a head of global ETF to help us build that out that plan, the infrastructure to launch that 2025 everything is underway now.

我認為這是一個很好的總結。看，我認為我們正在所有這些領域採取措施。我們提到主動ETF是我們2025年建構主動ETF產品策略計畫的一部分。我們認為這是當前一個重要且不斷增長的領域，為客戶提供不斷增長的工具，當然獲得了很大的吸引力，我們很高興我們宣布，我們已經聘請了一位全球ETF 負責人來幫助我們實現這項目標計劃，2025年啟動的基礎設施一切都正在進行中。

And we think our investment strategies are well positioned to do well in this space as [tapping]. So this is an exciting vector of opportunity growth for us. It's a build, obviously it's a build so it's going to take time to get off and running, but it's going to create a vector of growth for us that we didn't have previously.

我們認為我們的投資策略處於有利位置，可以在這個領域取得良好的表現，因為[竊聽]。因此，這對我們來說是一個令人興奮的機會成長載體。這是一個構建，顯然它是一個構建，所以它需要時間來啟動和運行，但它將為我們創建一個我們以前沒有的成長向量。

And then on the other two areas, we're also laying some of the groundwork, recently the announcement that we did in Europe with a lot of partners a lot of capital, the premier venture capital firm focused on technology we're launching a JB to launch a private growth equity fund in 2025, we're very, very excited about the team and the opportunity set and the reaction that we've gotten from our client base as we started to discuss with them.

然後在其他兩個領域，我們也在奠定一些基礎，最近我們宣布我們在歐洲與許多合作夥伴一起提供了大量資金，專注於技術的首要風險投資公司我們正在推出一個 JB為了在2025 年推出私募成長股權基金，我們對團隊、機會集以及我們開始與客戶群討論時所得到的反應感到非常非常興奮。

The opportunities for them to take part and invest in those areas, that's tremendous. And then the work we've done earlier this year to integrate an acquisition we did in wealth management in the US continues on and I think that's another vector of focus for us as well. So I think we're taking smaller steps on each of these areas to build out opportunities for the years ahead.

他們參與和投資這些領域的機會是巨大的。然後，我們今年稍早所做的整合我們在美國財富管理領域進行的收購的工作仍在繼續，我認為這也是我們關注的另一個方向。因此，我認為我們正在每個領域採取較小的步驟，為未來幾年創造機會。

Great. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Thank you. This now concludes Lazard's third quarter, 2024 earnings conference call. Please disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。Lazard 2024 年第三季財報電話會議至此結束。請此時斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。