Lazard Inc (LAZ) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Lazard's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家早安。歡迎參加 Lazard 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。本次通話正在錄音。（操作員指令）

Now at this time, I'll turn things over to Alexandra Deignan, Lazard's Head of Investor Relations and Treasury. Please go ahead, ma'am.

現在，我將把話題交給 Lazard 投資者關係和財務主管 Alexandra Deignan。請繼續，女士。

Thank you, Bo. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Lazard's Earnings Call for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2024. I'm Alexandra Deignan, Head of Investor Relations and Treasury. In addition to today's audio comments, we have posted our earnings release on our website. A replay of this call will also be available on our website later today.

謝謝你，博。大家早安，歡迎參加 Lazard 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。我是投資者關係和財務主管 Alexandra Deignan。除了今天的音訊評論外，我們還在我們的網站上發布了我們的收益報告。今天晚些時候，我們的網站也將提供此通話的重播。

Before we begin, let me remind you that we may make forward-looking statements about our business and performance. There are important factors that could cause our actual results, level of activity, performance, achievements or other events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, those factors discussed in the company's SEC filings, can access on our website. Lazard assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of these forward-looking statements and assumes no duty to update them.

在我們開始之前，請允許我提醒您，我們可能會對我們的業務和業績做出前瞻性的陳述。有一些重要因素可能導致我們的實際結果、活動水準、績效、成就或其他事件與前瞻性陳述中表達或暗示的結果、績效、成就或其他事件有重大差異，包括但不限於公司SEC 報告中討論的因素。Lazard 對這些前瞻性陳述的準確性或完整性不承擔任何責任，也不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's discussion also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are meaningful when evaluating the company's performance. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP measures is provided in our earnings release and investor presentation.

今天的討論還包括某些非 GAAP 財務指標，我們認為這些指標在評估公司業績時很有意義。我們在收益報告和投資者報告中提供了這些非 GAAP 財務指標與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳表。

Hosting our call today are Peter Orszag, our Chief Executive Officer and Chairman; and Mary Ann Betsch, Lazard's Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared remarks, Peter and Mary Ann will be joined by Evan Russo, Chief Executive Officer of Asset Management as they open the call for questions. I'll now turn the call over to Peter.

今天主持我們電話會議的是我們的執行長兼董事長 Peter Orszag；以及 Lazard 財務長 Mary Ann Betsch。在我們準備好發言之後，Peter 和 Mary Ann 將與資產管理部門執行長 Evan Russo 一起開始提問。我現在將電話轉給彼得。

Thank you, Ale, and thank you to everyone for joining us this morning. We are pleased to report strong fourth quarter and full year results, which reflect our teamwork across the firm and dedication to our clients as well as the improving business conditions we anticipated. Our continued momentum in executing our Lazard 2030 strategy is producing results ahead of schedule. In Financial Advisory, our strength and franchise captured increased market share.

謝謝你，Ale，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們很高興地報告第四季度和全年業績強勁，這反映了我們整個公司的團隊合作和對客戶的奉獻精神以及我們預期的改善的業務條件。我們在執行 Lazard 2030 策略方面持續保持強勁勢頭，並提前取得了成果。在財務諮詢領域，我們的優勢和特許經營權奪取了更大的市場份額。

We achieved record revenue in Europe in 2024, where our integrated leadership team and cooperation across sectors and geographies are working well. While continuing to serve our long-standing corporate clients, we have also expanded the ways in which we serve private capital, and that effort produced robust revenue during the year.

2024年，我們在歐洲實現了創紀錄的收入，這得益於我們的綜合領導團隊以及跨部門和跨地區的合作。在繼續服務我們的長期企業客戶的同時，我們也擴大了服務私人資本的方式，這項努力在一年內產生了強勁的收入。

In addition, our leading restructuring and liability management practice was a meaningful contributor to our results, supported by our improved balance between creditor and debtor work. Overall, Financial Advisory delivered strong performance in 2024, and we expect continued strong growth in 2025. In Asset Management, we produced consistent results during the year, demonstrating the resiliency of revenue generated from this business. Growth in incentive fees during 2024 resulted from the outperformance of key strategies, including our global convertible alternative strategy, Japanese equity and quant.

此外，我們領先的重組和負債管理實踐對我們的業績做出了有意義的貢獻，這得益於我們債權人和債務人工作之間平衡的改善。整體而言，財務諮詢業務在 2024 年表現強勁，我們預計 2025 年將持續強勁成長。在資產管理方面，我們全年都取得了穩定的業績，證明了該業務收入的彈性。2024 年激勵費用的成長源自於關鍵策略的優異表現，包括我們的全球可轉換替代策略、日本股票和量化。

In addition, recent enhancements of the business and sales efforts and key products that took place throughout last year have enabled us to enter this year with $10 billion of one, but not yet funded mandates, substantially higher than other recent years. These enhancements and sales efforts, along with our investments in talent, further position us to target a more balanced flow picture in 2025. I will say more on that topic later.

此外，去年全年業務和銷售力度的加強以及主要產品的推出，使得我們今年的單筆資金（但尚未到位）達到 100 億美元，大大高於近幾年。這些改進和銷售努力，加上我們對人才的投資，進一步使我們瞄準 2025 年更加平衡的流程狀況。我稍後將會就這個主題進一步談論。

In summary, our execution against our long-term growth strategy has created momentum in 2024 that is reflected in today's results. We anticipate 2025 to be an even more productive and profitable year as we continue to pursue our 2030 objectives. Let me now turn the call over to Mary Ann to provide more detail on our earnings and financial performance and then I'll share more on the outlook.

總而言之，我們根據長期成長策略的執行在 2024 年創造了動力，這在今天的業績中有所體現。我們預計，隨著我們繼續追求 2030 年的目標，2025 年將會是更有成效和獲利的一年。現在，我將把電話轉給瑪麗安，讓她提供有關我們的盈利和財務業績的更多詳細信息，然後我將分享更多有關前景的信息。

Thank you, Peter. Firm-wide adjusted net revenue was $812 million for the fourth quarter, up 7% from the prior year and $2.9 billion for the year, up 18% from 2023. These results illustrate our inflection towards growth as part of our long-term strategy for Lazard. Our increase in firm-wide revenue this year was primarily driven by our Financial Advisory business. Financial Advisory adjusted net revenue was $508 million for the fourth quarter, up 6% from 1 year ago and $1.7 billion for the full year, up 28% compared to 2023. Our financial advisory team demonstrated increased productivity and won new business across the firm. As a result, Lazard participated in a number of marquee transactions in the fourth quarter and into January.

謝謝你，彼得。第四季全公司調整後淨收入為 8.12 億美元，較上年增長 7%，全年調整後淨收入為 29 億美元，較 2023 年增長 18%。這些結果表明，作為 Lazard 的長期策略的一部分，我們已開始轉向成長。我們今年全公司收入的成長主要得益於我們的財務諮詢業務。財務諮詢業務第四季調整後淨營收為 5.08 億美元，較去年同期成長 6%，全年調整後淨營收為 17 億美元，較 2023 年成長 28%。我們的財務顧問團隊提高了工作效率並在整個公司贏得了新業務。因此，Lazard 在第四季度和一月參與了多項重大交易。

Recently announced transactions include Constellation Energy's $26.6 billion acquisition of Calpine, and Berry Global's $15 billion combination with Amcor. Completed transactions include Vivendi's EUR 9.5 billion spin-off of Canal+, Havas and Louis Hachette Group, and Cencora's $4.6 billion acquisition of Retina Consultants of America. In addition, large corporate restructuring assignments include Consolis and Enviva while creditor and related party roles include Accuride and SVB Financial Group. We also advised on several private capital markets assignments including Dropbox's $2 billion secured term loan led by Blackstone Credit & Insurance and EQT on its fund-to-fund liquidity solution and capital raise for Nord Anglia Education.

最近宣布的交易包括 Constellation Energy 斥資 266 億美元收購 Calpine，以及 Berry Global 斥資 150 億美元與 Amcor 合併。已完成的交易包括維旺迪以 95 億歐元分拆 Canal+、Havas 和路易阿歇特集團，以及 Cencora 以 46 億歐元收購美國 Retina Consultants。此外，大型企業重組任務包括 Consolis 和 Enviva，而債權人和相關方角色包括 Accuride 和 SVB Financial Group。我們也為幾個私人資本市場項目提供諮詢，包括為 Dropbox 提供由 Blackstone Credit & Insurance 牽頭的 20 億美元有擔保定期貸款，以及為 EQT 提供基金對基金流動性解決方案和為 Nord Anglia Education 籌集資金。

Turning to Asset Management. Adjusted net revenue was $287 million for the fourth quarter, up 5% compared to 1 year ago and $1.1 billion for the full year, up 3% compared to 2023. Our revenues reflected resilient management fees of $258 million for the fourth quarter, in line with the prior year quarter and $1.1 billion in 2024, up 2% compared to the prior year. Incentive fees were up in both the fourth quarter and for the full year, totaling $29 million and $43 million, respectively, highlighting the strong outperformance of several of our key strategies, as Peter mentioned. As of December 31, we reported AUM of $226 billion, 8% lower than December 2023 and 9% lower than September 2024. During the quarter, we had market depreciation of $2 billion, foreign exchange depreciation of $9 billion and net outflows of $10 billion.

轉向資產管理。第四季調整後淨營收為 2.87 億美元，較一年前成長 5%，全年調整後淨營收為 11 億美元，較 2023 年成長 3%。我們的營收反映了第四季 2.58 億美元的管理費用的強勁成長，與去年同期持平，2024 年為 11 億美元，比上年增長 2%。第四季和全年的激勵費用均有所上漲，分別達到 2,900 萬美元和 4,300 萬美元，正如 Peter 所提到的，這突顯了我們的幾項關鍵策略的強勁表現。截至 12 月 31 日，我們報告的 AUM 為 2,260 億美元，比 2023 年 12 月低 8%，比 2024 年 9 月低 9%。本季，市場貶值 20 億美元，外匯貶值 90 億美元，淨流出 100 億美元。

Average AUM for the full year was $243 billion, 4% higher than 2023. Our ability to customize strategies and solutions to meet unique client needs has resulted in several large mandates. During the fourth quarter, new business included the initial funding of a custom global equities mandate with an additional $2 billion anticipated over the course of 2025 and several mandates that were funded in emerging markets equity quality growth and quant strategies.

全年平均 AUM 為 2,430 億美元，比 2023 年高 4%。我們能夠客製化策略和解決方案以滿足獨特的客戶需求，從而獲得了多項大型委託。第四季的新業務包括對客製化全球股票授權的初始融資（預計 2025 年將額外融資 20 億美元），以及對新興市場股票品質成長和量化策略的幾項授權融資。

Now turning to expenses. Our adjusted compensation expense was $533 million for the fourth quarter and $1.9 billion for the full year 2024. This resulted in a full year compensation ratio of 65.9%, an improvement of 390 basis points from 2023. As we've shared previously, we continue to anticipate achieving a 60% target compensation ratio in 2025. Provided our Financial Advisory business grows as we expect, and we hire financial advisory MDs at the pace we expect. That said, we are engaged in a wide array of recruiting discussions that reflect our momentum. And if we have the opportunity to bring on even more talent this year, we will do so. Our adjusted noncompensation expense was $154 million for the fourth quarter and $575 million for the full year 2024. This resulted in a non-compensation ratio of 19.9% for the year, which brings us back within our target range. Our cost containment efforts have helped to offset investments in client development and technology keeping noncomp expenses nearly flat in 2024, while firm-wide revenues grew 18%. Shifting to taxes. Our adjusted effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was 18.1% and compared to 16% for the prior year quarter. Our effective tax rate for the full year 2024 was 24.4%, reflecting the favorable court decision in a long-standing tax matter during the year.

現在談談費用。我們第四季的調整後薪資支出為 5.33 億美元，2024 年全年的調整後薪資支出為 19 億美元。這使得全年薪資率為 65.9%，比 2023 年提高了 390 個基點。正如我們之前所分享的，我們仍然預計在 2025 年實現 60% 的目標薪資率。只要我們的財務顧問業務如預期成長，我們就會以預期的速度聘請財務顧問長。儘管如此，我們正在進行廣泛的招聘討論，這反映了我們的發展勢頭。如果今年我們有機會引進更多人才，我們就會這麼做。我們第四季的調整後非薪酬支出為 1.54 億美元，2024 年全年的調整後非薪酬支出為 5.75 億美元。這使得全年的未償付率為19.9％，這使我們重新回到了目標範圍內。我們的成本控制措施有助於抵消對客戶開發和技術的投資，使非公司支出在 2024 年基本持平，而全公司收入增長了 18%。轉向稅收。我們第四季的調整後有效稅率為 18.1%，而去年同期為 16%。我們 2024 年全年的有效稅率為 24.4%，反映了該年度長期稅務問題上法院所做的有利判決。

Turning to capital allocation. We continue to balance investments in growth with returning capital to our shareholders. In the fourth quarter of 2024, we returned $61 million to shareholders including a quarterly dividend of $45 million and $16 million in share repurchases. For the full year 2024, we returned $303 million to shareholders including $179 million in dividends, $60 million in share repurchases and $64 million in satisfaction of employee tax obligations. Additionally, yesterday, we declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share. During 2024, we repurchased 1.4 million shares at an average price of $42.20. Today, our outstanding share repurchase authorization is approximately $180 million.

轉向資本配置。我們持續在成長投資與股東回報之間取得平衡。2024 年第四季度，我們向股東返還了 6,100 萬美元，其中包括 4,500 萬美元的季度股息和 1,600 萬美元的股票回購。2024 年全年，我們向股東返還了 3.03 億美元，其中包括 1.79 億美元的股息、6,000 萬美元的股票回購和 6,400 萬美元的員工納稅義務履行。此外，昨天我們宣布每股 0.50 美元的季度股息。2024 年，我們以平均 42.20 美元的價格回購了 140 萬股。今天，我們未償還的股票回購授權約為 1.8 億美元。

Now I'll turn the call back to Peter.

現在我將把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Mary Ann. During 2024, we made significant progress against our Lazard 2030 goals. Financial advisory revenue for the year nearly matched our record from 2021. These results reflect the M&A cycle developing as we expected, our successful recruiting efforts and our bankers increasingly embracing our commercial and collegial culture in serving clients. and exceptional performance across Europe in 2024.

謝謝你，瑪麗安。2024 年，我們在實現 Lazard 2030 目標方面取得了重大進展。今年的財務諮詢收入幾乎與我們 2021 年的記錄持平。這些結果反映了併購週期按我們預期的發展、我們成功的招聘工作以及我們的銀行家在服務客戶時越來越多地接受我們的商業和同事文化。並在 2024 年在整個歐洲表現出色。

For completed M&A, Lazard maintained the number 1 position in France ranked number 3 in Germany and moved up to number 4 for Europe and the Middle East overall. We also had strong performance in the Americas, with revenue growth of 41% compared to 2023. In addition, our connectivity of private capital has expanded substantially over the past few years. Revenue associated with private capital now constitutes approximately 40% of our overall financial advisory revenue, up from 1/3 a year ago even as we experienced overall advisory revenue growth.

對於已完成的併購交易而言，Lazard 在法國保持第一的位置，在德國排名第三，並在歐洲和中東地區整體排名第四。我們在美洲地區的表現也十分出色，與 2023 年相比營收成長了 41%。此外，過去幾年來，我們與民間資本的互聯互通也大幅拓展。儘管我們的整體諮詢收入有所增長，但與私人資本相關的收入目前約占我們整體財務諮詢收入的 40%，而一年前這一比例僅為 1/3。

Over time, we aim to have revenue associated with private capital closer to 50% of total advisory revenue as market activity increases and our connectivity continues to expand. Our respected brand and long-term vision for the firm are increasingly attracting exceptional talent. We remain on track to achieve our MD growth target by the end of the first quarter of this year and we are in active discussions with numerous additional potential hires.

隨著市場活動的增加和我們的連結性的不斷擴大，我們的目標是隨著時間的推移，與私人資本相關的收入接近總諮詢收入的 50％。我們受人尊敬的品牌和公司的長期願景正吸引越來越多的傑出人才。我們仍有望在今年第一季末實現 MD 成長目標，並且正在與眾多其他潛在員工進行積極討論。

We plan to continue our investment in MD growth of 10 to 15 net additions annually. In addition, we are ahead of schedule with our efforts to raise MD productivity, another goal outlined as part of our Lazard 2030 plan. Revenue per MD was $8.6 million for the full year 2024, 1 year ahead of our target to achieve $8.5 million this year. As a further spur to productivity, we have now also raised our minimum fee again on each mandate.

我們計劃繼續對 MD 成長進行投資，每年淨增加 10 到 15 個 MD。此外，我們提前完成了提高 MD 生產率的努力，這是 Lazard 2030 計劃中提出的另一個目標。2024 年全年每位 MD 的收入為 860 萬美元，比我們今年實現 850 萬美元的目標提前了 1 年。為了進一步提高生產力，我們現在也再次提高了每項任務的最低費用。

Looking ahead, the tailwinds for Financial Advisory continued to strengthen the technology and generative AI, the biotech revolution, ongoing expansion in energy demand and efforts to derisk supply chains create opportunity for clients. In the US , shift in the antitrust and regulatory environment also appear to be positively influencing M&A discussions. While a further decline in interest rates would be beneficial, it would be secondary to these factors in driving activity.

展望未來，財務諮詢領域的順風將繼續加強技術和產生人工智慧，生物技術革命、能源需求的持續擴張以及降低供應鏈風險的努力將為客戶創造機會。在美國，反壟斷和監管環境的變化似乎也對併購討論產生了正面影響。雖然利率進一步下降會帶來好處，但它對這些推動經濟活動的因素而言只是次要的。

Overall, we see an increasingly constructive environment for our advisory business this year. Turning to asset management, we have made investments to strengthen our distribution, research and investment platforms that position us well for 2025. As I laid out in a recent conference, our outlook for this year is based on several factors.

總體而言，我們看到今年我們的諮詢業務環境日益良好。在資產管理方面，我們進行了投資以加強我們的分銷、研究和投資平台，為我們在2025年做好準備。正如我在最近的一次會議上所述，我們對今年的展望是基於幾個因素。

First, investments and organizational changes made to strengthen the business, plus work done to scale and position our specialty products with clients have led us to enter 2025 with a substantial level of 1 but not yet funded mandates. In addition, new vectors of growth recently established such as active ETFs and US

首先，為加強業務而進行的投資和組織變革，加上為擴大和定位我們的特色產品與客戶而開展的工作，使我們在進入 2025 年時擁有相當數量的 1 個尚未獲得資金支持的授權。此外，最近出現的新的成長載體，如主動型 ETF 和美國

Wealth Management also support our outlook along with the potential renewed interest in stock beyond a handful of very large US equities. It is worth noting that different parts of our asset business have different characteristics, which ultimately affects flows. To be more specific, our sub-advised funds associated with US multi-manager mandates have different dynamics from the rest of our business.

財富管理也支持我們的展望，同時除了少數幾家大型美國股票外，投資人還可能重新燃起對股票的興趣。值得注意的是，我們的資產業務的不同部分具有不同的特點，最終會影響流量。更具體地說，與美國多經理授權相關的次級諮詢基金與我們的其他業務有著不同的動態。

These large US subadvised funds represented more than half of net outflows in the fourth quarter, but the assets in this category represent less than 5% of our asset management revenue. Another 95% of our revenue is outside of this category and includes strategies such as quant emerging market equity, global and specialized products like Japanese equity and infrastructure.

這些大型美國次級顧問基金佔第四季淨流出量的一半以上，但此類資產占我們資產管理收入的不到5％。我們的另外 95% 的收入不屬於此類，其中包括量化新興市場股票、全球和日本股票和基礎設施等專業產品等策略。

This portion of our business had more balanced flow activity in the fourth quarter and it also represents all of the $10 billion in 1 but not yet funded mandates we had entering 2025. During this year, we will continue to prioritize areas where we see opportunities for growth in asset management. This includes meeting client demand through our expanded methods of delivery such as wealth management and active ETFs.

我們業務的這一部分在第四季度的流量活動更加均衡，它也代表了我們進入 2025 年的 100 億美元但尚未獲得資金的支持。今年，我們將繼續優先考慮資產管理中存在成長機會的領域。這包括透過我們擴展的交付方式（例如財富管理和主動型ETF）來滿足客戶需求。

Earlier this month, we filed our initial SEC registration statement to launch several offerings later this year. Our initial lineup of ETFs showcases some of our most compelling strategies for active management across market segments in which Lazard has a long proven track record of outperformance. This marks a notable next step in our shift to offer more investors access to our premier investment products through a more efficient vehicle.

本月初，我們向美國證券交易委員會提交了初始註冊聲明，準備在今年稍後推出幾項產品。我們最初的 ETF 陣容展示了我們在各個細分市場中最具吸引力的一些主動管理策略，Lazard 在這些細分市場中擁有長期優異的表現記錄。這標誌著我們邁出了重要的一步，透過更有效率的工具讓更多投資者獲得我們的優質投資產品。

Overall, our fourth quarter and full year 2021 results demonstrate the ongoing successful execution of our long-term growth strategy against an improving economic and market backdrop. Looking ahead, we anticipate an increasingly constructive environment for both of our businesses in 2025. And as always, we remain focused on helping our clients successfully navigate complex business and investment decisions and on delivering long-term value for our shareholders.

總體而言，我們的 2021 年第四季和全年業績表明，在經濟和市場不斷改善的背景下，我們持續成功執行長期成長策略。展望未來，我們預期 2025 年我們兩家公司的業務環境都將更有利。像往常一樣，我們將繼續專注於幫助客戶成功應對複雜的商業和投資決策，並為股東創造長期價值。

Now we'll open the call to questions.

現在我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Devin Ryan, Citizens GMP.

德文·瑞安（Devin Ryan），公民 GMP。

Great, Peter, Mary Ann and Evan, how are you? I want to start on the asset management business. I really appreciate the detail on the $10 billion of mandates just to kind of contextualize some of the progress there. It would be great to just understand how that compares to prior years. How that correlates to gross flows in the year ahead?

太好了，彼得、瑪麗安和埃文，你們好嗎？我想開始從事資產管理業務。我真的很欣賞有關 100 億美元授權的細節，只是為了讓大家了解那裡取得的一些進展。了解一下與前幾年相比的情況就好了。這與未來一年的總流量有何關聯？

And then maybe more importantly, you did touch on a high level some of the changes that you guys have been implementing to drive more wins there. So would be great to hear a little bit more about how that's specifically happening? And then where do you think we are? Can $10 billion next year grow to something much higher because you're still in the early innings of kind of this kind of process change that you've been making in asset management.

也許更重要的是，你確實從高層次觸及了你們為取得更​​多勝利而實施的一些變革。那麼，能否聽聽您對這件事的具體情況呢？那您認為我們在哪裡？明年的 100 億美元能否成長到更高的數字，因為您仍處於資產管理流程變革的早期階段。

Thanks. Let me start, and then maybe Evan can add any commentary as appropriate. Look, I think there are a couple of different things to kind of peel back then on first on the $10 billion, that is materially higher than other recent years. We haven't released that number. I'm not going to give you the exact quantum, but the reason we called it out is it is higher than it's been in recent years, a significant amount. And obviously, that is only part of the picture for the year as a whole.

謝謝。讓我先開始，然後 Evan 可以酌情添加評論。看，我認為有幾件不同的事情需要解決，首先是 100 億美元，這比近年來的金額要高得多。我們還沒有公佈這個數字。我不會告訴你確切的數量，但我們之所以公佈這個數字，是因為它比近年來的水平要高，是一個相當大的數字。顯然，這只是全年情況的一部分。

As you correctly noted, we're calling it out just because we're entering the year with some wind at our backs given that that amount of 1, but not yet funded mandates, but that would be the minority of the overall gross inflows for the year because we do anticipate we have a whole plan for on the distribution side for where we think the most promising prospects are.

正如你正確指出的那樣，我們之所以提出這一點，只是因為我們在進入新的一年時有一些順風順水，因為有 1,000,000 美元的資金尚未到位，但這只是整體流入資金的一小部分。我們確實預計，我們在分銷方面有一個完整的計劃，針對我們認為最有前景的地方。

With regard to what we're doing, I would highlight 2 things. One is we have made significant investments in our platform, everything from new portfolio managers, small cap S. equity is a good example. There are many, many others to investing in our research team, where we brought on a series of new analysts and I think that's what's in addition to a renewed focus from our sales and distribution teams, that's what's producing these results.

對於我們正在做的事情，我想強調兩件事。一是我們對平台進行了大量投資，從新的投資組合經理到小型股美國股票都是一個很好的例子。我們也採取了許多其他措施來投資我們的研究團隊，我們引進了一系列新的分析師，我認為這與我們的銷售和分銷團隊的重新關註一起，產生了這些結果。

Obviously, we provided -- the second point is we've provided some context on large US sub-advised funds versus the rest just because the dynamics are different, the nature of decision-making is different, the flow dynamics are different, and we wanted people to know that the vast majority of our revenue is in a category that is outside of those large US sub-advised funds. I don't know, Evan, if you want to --

顯然，我們提供了——第二點是，我們提供了一些關於美國大型次級顧問基金與其他基金的背景信息，只是因為它們的動態不同，決策的性質不同，流動動態不同，我們我想讓人們知道，我們的絕大部分收入都來自美國大型次級顧問基金以外的類別。我不知道，埃文，如果你想--

No, I think you summarized it well. It's a strong foundation that we've set over the course of the past year, Devin, to sort of lead us into 2025 with just a lot more momentum some of that is just stuff that was produced over the course of the year, larger -- some larger mandates as well that we'll fund throughout 2025.

不，我認為你總結得很好。這是我們在過去一年中奠定的堅實基礎，德文，它將帶領我們以更大的動力邁入 2025 年，其中一些只是在過去一年中生產的東西，更大 - - 我們還將在2025 年為一些更大的任務提供資金。

But as always, we're continuing to build upon that even as we enter the year and continuing to build that month-over-month as you'll see in the flows. What we're also seeing is just stronger interest across a lot of those areas that we have called out. So Quant Japan, credit, fixed income, and even some emerging markets, which we've been talking about for the last several quarters, so seeing some of that come through in gross flows and new wins, I think, is a very positive sign for our business.

但是與往常一樣，即使進入新年，我們仍會繼續在此基礎上繼續建設，並且正如您在流程中看到的那樣，我們會逐月繼續建設。我們也看到，人們對我們所提到的許多領域的興趣越來越濃厚。因此，量化日本、信貸、固定收益，甚至一些新興市場（我們過去幾個季度一直在談論這些市場），我認為，看到其中的一些在總流量和新勝利中實現，是一個非常積極的信號對於我們的業務來說。

And we're starting to see the activity level with clients pick up in areas that had certainly been slower for the last year, 1.5 years, where the market has significantly been focused on specifically US and the growth style within US So focusing on trying to find ways to capture the upside across the AI trade, which is a handful of stocks in that region.

我們開始看到客戶活動水平在過去一年半中明顯放緩的領域有所回升，這些領域的市場主要集中在美國，以及美國的成長方式，因此專注於嘗試找到方法來抓住人工智慧交易的上行機會，人工智慧交易是該地區的少數股票之一。

So when you start to see the clients think about diversifying outside of that trend and that trade, that's going to sit well with us given our international global emerging markets focus and our relative value and quality style of the way we invest. So those are the things that line up for us as we enter into this year give us a lot of confidence that this -- we're off to a strong start, but the momentum is building.

因此，當您開始看到客戶考慮在該趨勢和交易之外進行多元化時，考慮到我們對國際全球新興市場的關注以及我們投資方式的相對價值和品質風格，這將與我們的想法一致。所以，這些都是我們今年即將發生的事情，這給了我們很大的信心——我們開局強勁，但勢頭正在增強。

And just to run just a final point is any of the areas where we have already seen inflows in the fourth quarter. A good example of emerging market equities, Japanese equity. Those are also areas in which we've got very strong outperformance. So there's a significant base to build upon as we enter this year.

最後要說的是，我們在第四季已經看到資金流入的領域。新興市場股票的一個很好的例子是日本股票。這些也是我們表現非常出色的領域。因此，當我們進入今年時，我們將有一個重要的基礎可以依賴。

Thank you for that comprehensive answer on that. Okay. A quick follow-up on Europe. And obviously, overall advisory results were very good firm wide. You called out Europe as kind of 1 area where activity was also strong. And so Lazard has obviously a pretty good window into Europe and maybe more than most.

感謝您對此所做的全面回答。好的。快速跟進歐洲的情況。顯然，整個公司的整體諮詢結果都非常好。您曾指出歐洲是活動最活躍的地區之一。因此，Lazard 顯然擁有一個了解歐洲的較好窗口，或許比大多數公司都要好。

And so I want to just hear about how you're thinking about the outlook for M&A, specifically in Europe relative to the US market. As you think about your your projections over the next couple of years? Are the drivers -- does it feel like the same optimism or opportunity in Europe relative to the US or even more so, I'd love to just hear your thoughts on that given that it is an important part of the business.

所以我想聽聽您對併購前景的看法，特別是歐洲相對於美國市場的併購前景。您如何考慮未來幾年的預測？驅動因素是——相對於美國，歐洲是否感覺同樣樂觀或有相同機會，或者更重要的是，我很想聽聽您對此的看法，因為這是業務的重要組成部分。

Sure. So a few things. I think it's really important to note that the correlation between the sort of macroeconomic backdrop and M&A activity and M&A revenue is certainly not perfect. And all you need to do is look at 2024. 24 was not a stellar year for the euro European macro economy, but it was a record year for our advisory revenue, highlighting that there are a lot of puts and takes in between GDP growth to M&A and other revenues.

當然。有幾件事。我認為需要特別注意的是，宏觀經濟背景與併購活動和併購收入之間的相關性並不完美。你所需要做的就是展望2024 年。之間存在著巨大的差距。

So that's the first point. The second point is there's very clearly a focus in Europe about improving that macro backdrop. So just yesterday, he's underlying released a pretty comprehensive plan that follows up on the Draghi report to address regulatory burdens and other impediments to growth in Europe. I think that's very encouraging. I will say that in a variety of the discussions in that was, the biggest question was, it sounds good that the Europeans are focused on this, but how much are they going to step up and actually do. So the first step in doing is to have a specific plan. That has now been put out.

這是第一點。第二點是歐洲顯然致力於改善宏觀背景。就在昨天，他基本上發布了一項相當全面的計劃，該計劃是對德拉吉報告的後續行動，旨在解決監管負擔和其他阻礙歐洲成長的障礙。我覺得這非常令人鼓舞。我想說，在各種討論中，最大的問題是，歐洲人對此的關注聽起來很好，但他們將在多大程度上加強並真正採取行動。因此，做事的第一步就是要有一個具體的計畫。現在已經將其發布。

And now it's a question of trying to implemented and pass it in the number of countries, but it's still progress. And then the final point is, I guess it's related to the first, which is a lot of European companies like companies across the globe are looking to diversify their supply chains and are looking to diversify just their geographic mix.

現在的問題是嘗試在多個國家實施和通過該法案，但這仍在進展中。最後一點，我想這與第一點有關，許多歐洲公司和全球各地的公司一樣，都在尋求供應鏈多樣化，並尋求實現地理分佈多樣化。

And so a lot of -- we're seeing a lot of European interest in US company M&A. And I think Lazard is very well positioned to meet that demand because we are the only independent advisory firm that has strong local roots in both North America and Europe. And so as that interest European interest in US firms, in particular, grows, and we anticipate that based on based on logic and the discussions we're having, that that will be a significant area of activity in 2025, we think we benefit from that.

我們看到很多歐洲人對美國公司的併購感興趣。我認為 Lazard 完全有能力滿足這項需求，因為我們是唯一一家在北美和歐洲都擁有強大本地根基的獨立顧問公司。因此，隨著歐洲對美國公司的興趣日益濃厚，我們預計，基於邏輯和我們正在進行的討論，這將成為 2025 年的一個重要活動領域，我們認為我們將從中受益。

Okay, great color. Thank you so much appreciated.

好的，顏色很棒。非常感謝。

Brennan Hawken, UBS.

瑞銀的布倫南‧霍肯 (Brennan Hawken)。

Good morning, Evan, and Mary Anne, and Peter. How you doing. I'd love to drill into your target for 60% comp ratio expectation in two believe Mary Ann referenced advisory revenue growth. So I'd love to maybe get some more texture around that assumption. I'm just struggling to figure out how to get there. Is there going to be any change in the structure of comp maybe like more deferrals or longer deferrals. What are the building blocks?

早安，艾文、瑪麗安和彼得。你好嗎。我很想深入了解你對 60% 的補償比率預期目標，相信瑪麗安會提到諮詢收入成長。因此，我希望能對這個假設有更多的了解。我只是在努力弄清楚如何到達那裡。薪酬結構是否會改變？其構成要素有哪些？

Well, look, I'd say a few things. First, obviously, the comp ratio has many, many different inputs into it. And the mapping -- I feel for you a little bit because the mapping from overall revenue growth to the comp ratio has a lot of different complexities associated with it. I'll give you just 1 example. We have really succeeded in shifting the distribution of managing directors towards -- if you think about the distribution across productivity towards the more productive end of the spectrum and reduce the share of managing directors that are at the lower end of productivity.

好吧，看，我想說幾件事。首先，顯然，補償比率有許多不同的輸入因素。至於映射——我有點同情你，因為從總體收入增長到補償比率的映射涉及很多不同的複雜性。我只給你舉一個例子。我們確實成功地改變了董事總經理的分佈——如果你考慮一下生產力的分佈，使其向生產力更高的一端靠攏，並減少處於生產力較低端的董事總經理的比例。

So for any given revenue amount. That shift in the distribution helps to bring down the comp ratio on average because what typically happens in this firm is the bankers that are less productive effectively get cross subsidized. And so the overall comp ratio is higher at a given level of revenue. And without that kind of detail, it's very difficult to do the mapping directly from revenue on to the comp ratio.

對於任何給定的收入金額。這種分配方式的轉變有助於降低平均薪酬比率，因為這家公司通常發生的情況是，生產力較低的銀行家實際上會得到交叉補貼。因此，在給定的收入水準下，整體補償比率較高。如果沒有這種細節，就很難直接將收入對應到補償比率上。

So we remain -- we believe that we will be able to achieve this under the conditions that we stipulated. I'd also highlight the other factor, which is clearly, this is also dependent on on the hiring environment. We have -- we will succeed in being inside our target range for -- sorry, Q1 '23 to '24, based on the number of discussions that we're having that are really promising, it is possible that we're going to be higher in terms of lateral activity. in 2025. There's a lot of interest in our platform now that there's a sense of momentum and inflection.

因此我們堅信，我們能夠在我們規定的條件下實現這一目標。我還要強調另一個因素，顯然這也取決於招募環境。我們已經成功實現我們的目標範圍——抱歉，2023 年第一季度至 2024 年第一季度，根據我們正在進行的非常有希望的討論次數，我們有可能橫向活動能力較高。在2025年。現在大家對我們的平台很有興趣，因為有一種動力和轉變的感覺。

And if we need to -- if we need to bump up the comp ratio temporarily in order to bring on more talent, we will do that because we believe that over time, it will result in a lower overall comp ratio. So maybe I'll just go back to highlighting something that I've said repeatedly, absolutely core driver of the comp ratio, especially in advisory. And that is where most of the variance from year-to-year arises because the asset results are relatively stable. I know some people have tried to tie the comp ratio to net flows that there's not that much connectivity from 1 to the other.

如果我們需要——如果我們需要暫時提高薪酬比率以引進更多人才，我們就會這樣做，因為我們相信，隨著時間的推移，這將導致整體薪酬比率降低。因此，也許我應該回過頭來強調我反覆說過的一點，即薪酬比率絕對是核心驅動因素，尤其是在諮詢領域。由於資產結果相對穩定，因此大部分年度間的差異就產生於此。我知道有些人試圖將補償比率與淨流量聯繫起來，但兩者之間的連接並不那麼緊密。

This is really going to be dependent on what happens within the advisory business. And I just want to pause and again highlight how important productivity per MD is because that is where you get operating leverage in the advisory business. And I've used a simple example before of makeup whatever number you want to of non-MD costs per MD. -- let's use $3 million as an example. There's a fixed cost of $3 million.

這實際上取決於諮詢業務內部發生的情況。我只是想停下來再次強調每位董事總經理的生產力有多麼重要，因為這是你從諮詢業務中獲得營運槓桿的地方。我之前用過一個簡單的例子，說明如何計算每個 MD 的非 MD 成本。 ——我們以 300 萬美元為例。固定成本為 300 萬美元。

Energy Director is generating $5 million of revenue. That's a 60% non-MD comp ratio same Managing Director or a different one, roughly the same non-MD cost, generates $15 million in revenue. That's a 20% non-MD comp ratio. And so you can see there's just dramatic operating leverage that comes as we raise productivity, and that's what's been happening. The average is going up, but also the distribution is shifting to the more productive part of the distribution.

能源總監正在創造 500 萬美元的收入。這意味著非董事總經理薪酬比率為 60%，無論是相同的董事總經理還是不同的董事總經理，非董事總經理成本大致相同，可產生 1500 萬美元的收入。非 MD 薪酬比率為 20%。所以你可以看到，隨著我們提高生產力，隨之而來的是顯著的經營槓桿，而這正是正在發生的情況。平均水平正在上升，但分配也在轉移到生產力更高的部分。

Appreciate that. So I'd have to circle back, though, on a component of my question, which is, is there going to be any change in the compensation structure as you're.

非常感謝。因此，我必須回到我的問題的一個部分，即您的薪酬結構是否會改變。

No. And in fact, this year, we were able to bring the deferral rate down a bit and the cash percentage up a bit. We would like to continue doing that over time if we can. But I think your question was really, are we going to go in the opposite direction. We don't anticipate that. Again, this is all -- let me just back up. This is all predicating on the operating environment developing as we expect. And then our job is within that operating environment to deliver the results and that's exactly what happened in 2024. And assuming the operating environment cooperates with us, that's what will happen in 2025.

不。事實上，今年我們能夠將延期率稍微降低，將現金百分比稍微提高。如果可以的話，我們願意繼續這樣做。但我認為你的問題實際上是，我們是否要朝著相反的方向前進。我們沒想到這一點。再說一遍，就這些了——讓我回顧一下。這一切都取決於營運環境是否如我們預期的發展。然後，我們的工作就是在該營運環境中實現成果，而這正是 2024 年所發生的事。並且假設營運環境與我們合作，那麼這就是 2025 年將要發生的事。

Yes. And totally get that revenue and recruiting are going to be big factors. And for what it's worth, I'm not that far from your 60. I just can't get it all the way there. More revenue growth than I'm underwriting certainly will help. So -- the -- I'd love to ask a question on the share count. So I know you guys have buybacks on hold. But how is the war chest looking? Do you think at this stage, you have a sufficient war chest because -- and maybe it'd be helpful to understand the drivers of the fully diluted share count grinding up nearly 10% here this year and what your outlook is for maybe coming back to market with buybacks to at least neutralize some of this stock-based comp?

是的。並且完全明白收入和招聘將是重要因素。不管怎樣，我離你的 60 歲並不遠了。我就是不能把它完全送到那裡。比我承保的更多的收入成長肯定會有所幫助。所以 - - 我很想問一個關於股票數量的問題。所以我知道你們已經暫停回購了。但戰爭資金情況如何？你認為在現階段，你有足夠的資金嗎？來市場化至少可以抵銷部分基於股票的補償嗎？

Yes, I'd say just really briefly, and then I'm going to let Mary Ann go into more detail. You should expect a change in the pace of buybacks over time. and we will be moving -- again, over time, it may not be immediate to offsetting all of the dilution from stock-based compensation, the deferred compensation. moving through time to that objective and that will be the medium-term objective, but Mary Ann, you want to --

是的，我會非常簡短地講一下，然後我會讓瑪麗安更詳細地講解。您應該預期回購的速度會隨著時間的推移而改變。我們將會採取行動——再說一次，隨著時間的推移，可能無法立即抵消所有基於股票的薪酬和遞延薪酬的稀釋。隨著時間的推移，我們將實現這一目標，這將是中期目標，但瑪麗安，你想--

Yes, sure. So if you think about the 3 main components of the change in fully diluted shares, right, it's the amortization of awards, is the change in share price under the treasury stock method and then those are offset by buybacks that we do. So thinking about 2024, we had elevated amortization because if you remember, in prior years, we had done some deferrals in the form of fund interest, which we didn't do starting last year. So you had more share-based brands than in prior years.

是的，當然。因此，如果您考慮完全稀釋股份變化的 3 個主要組成部分，那麼，對吧，它是獎勵的攤銷，是庫存股法下的股價變化，然後這些被我們進行的回購所抵消。因此，考慮到 2024 年，我們提高了攤銷額，因為如果您還記得的話，在前幾年，我們以基金利息的形式做了一些延期，而從去年開始我們沒有這樣做。因此，與前幾年相比，你們擁有更多基於股份的品牌。

So you have some increased just based on elevated amortization coming in, then you have the impact of our share price being very thankfully elevated over the course of the year, which does have an impact under that treasury stock method. It just sort of artificially or on paper increases the share count. And then the buybacks, which normally mitigate those factors were less last year. So I think if you thinking about that going forward, I was share price unknown, hope it keeps going up. The amortization, I think, will probably be relatively stable from year-to-year. And then the buybacks, as Peter said, I would expect to be higher this year than last year overall.

因此，僅基於攤銷額的提高，您的收入就會增加，然後，您的收入會受到我們股價在一年內上漲的影響，這對庫存股方法確實有影響。它只是以某種方式人為地或紙面地增加了股票數量。通常可以緩解這些因素的回購在去年有所減少。因此我認為如果你考慮未來的發展，我的股價未知，希望它繼續上漲。我認為，攤銷額逐年可能會相對穩定。然後是回購，正如彼得所說，我預計今年的回購總體上會比去年更高。

Great. Thanks for that color.

偉大的。謝謝你這個顏色。

Brandon O'Brien, Wolfe Research.

奧布萊恩（Brandon O’Brien），沃爾夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）。

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. I guess, sorry, just a follow-up on the comp question from earlier. I understand that the comp ratio is largely going to be driven by improvement in the advisory business. But looking at the segment by segment disclosure and the debt, your comp ratio within asset management has increased pretty materially over the last 4 years.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。我想，抱歉，這只是對先前的補償問題的後續回答。我理解薪酬比率很大程度上取決於諮詢業務的改善。但從分部揭露和債務情況來看，在過去 4 年裡，資產管理業務的薪酬比率已大幅增加。

So I just want to get a sense as to whether you do need to see like management fee growth within the asset management business in order to get that comp ratio back down -- or if you fell short of that, whether excess growth within advisory and that mix shift could end up getting you there anyway?

因此，我只是想了解一下，你是否需要看到資產管理業務中的管理費增長，才能使薪酬比率回落——或者，如果你沒有達到這個目標，那麼諮詢和無論如何，這種混合轉變最終能讓你到達那裡嗎？

I would say we don't need any significant changes in the asset business to produce the results that we were talking about so.

我想說，我們不需要對資產業務進行任何重大改變就能產生我們所說的結果。

I would just add on to that. If you're looking at the asset management comp ratio, the biggest change was this year. and the driver of that was really the decrease in deferral rates that Peter mentioned. So we actually had a pretty significant improvement in our deferral rates year-over-year, and that came through in the current ratios in both businesses, but it was more pronounced in asset management.

我只是想補充一點。如果你看看資產管理的比率，最大的改變是今年。而其真正推動因素是彼得提到的延期率的下降。因此，我們的延期率實際上同比有了顯著改善，並且這體現在兩個業務的流動比率上，但在資產管理方面更為明顯。

Yes, I would more characterize the underlying comp ratio adjusting for deferral rates is relatively flat.

是的，我更傾向於認為，調整遞延率後的底層薪酬比率是相對平穩的。

Okay. That's helpful. And I guess just wanted to get a sense, you mentioned this in your prepared remarks, Peter, post election, a pickup in activity. Just wanted to get a sense as to how meaningful that improvement has been and whether we get a flavor of the difference between the level of dialogue between sponsors and at the moment?

好的。這很有幫助。我只是想了解一下，彼得，你在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，選舉後，活動有所回升。只是想了解這種改進有多大意義，以及我們是否了解贊助商之間的對話水平與現在之間的差異？

Yes. Look, I'd say what was happening last year it was significant strategic activity and dialogue. And as we got into the or the end of the year, it was very clear that private equity and alternative asset managers were coming back onto the playing field. that has definitively continued into this year. And so you've got an environment in which both strategics and sponsors seem to be quite active and we're playing to win in both categories.

是的。我想說，去年發生的是重大的策略活動和對話。而隨著年底的臨近，私募股權和另類資產管理公司顯然正在重返競爭舞台。這種狀況肯定會持續到今年。因此，您所處的環境中，策略方和贊助商似乎都非常活躍，我們正在努力在這兩個類別中取得勝利。

So I highlighted that the share of our revenue associated with private capital has risen to about 40%. And we see further room for growth there. but we also see lots of ongoing public company and strategic dialogue. So it's pretty much across the board. And I think the way I would characterize it is this cycle was developing anyway and then you layer on because of underlying drivers that I've already gone through.

因此我強調，我們的收入中與私人資本相關的份額已上升到40%左右。我們看到那裡還有進一步的成長空間。但我們也看到許多正在進行的上市公司和策略對話。所以這幾乎是全面的。我認為我對其的描述是，這個週期無論如何都會發展，然後你會因為我已經經歷過的潛在驅動因素而分層發展。

But if you then layer on a more accommodating regulatory environment, especially on vertical deals, I think that's where the biggest shift is likely to occur in the antitrust environment. But just the overall atmosphere, if you will, leads to increased CEO and Board confidence to proceed -- and then there are other factors that are helpful.

但如果你建立一個更寬鬆的監管環境，特別是針對垂直交易，我認為反壟斷環境最有可能出現最大的轉變。但如果你願意的話，整體氛圍就會增強執行長和董事會繼續前進的信心——還有其他有益的因素。

So the valuation disconnect between buyers and sellers has narrowed as the valuation ranges have come back into more normalized a more normalized environment and so on, and financing markets are generally open. So you put all that together, it looks very constructive, and that's what we're seeing. I've said this before, the advisory business is volatile. It's not going to be a linear quarter-by-quarter thing. But overall, we see a very constructive environment moving forward.

因此，隨著估值範圍恢復到更正常化的環境等，買家和賣家之間的估值差距已經縮小，融資市場普遍開放。所以，把所有這些放在一起，它看起來非常有建設性，這就是我們所看到的。我以前就說過，諮詢業務是不穩定的。這不會是逐季度線性成長的事情。但總體而言，我們看到一個非常有建設性的前進環境。

Great. Thank you, guys, for taking my questions.

偉大的。謝謝你們回答我的問題。

Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global Securities.

吉姆‧米切爾 (Jim Mitchell)，Seaport Global Securities。

Just, Peter, on the -- it's just sort of the productivity and headcount discussion. It seems like there was sort of another step down in the head count in the third quarter. So it seems like it would take a lot where you are today in the fourth -- at the end of the fourth quarter getting to the first quarter kind of target of 10% to 15% net growth. So is there that many new hires in the pipeline? Or also you have to think about the number of promotes, if maybe you can help get to 194 MDs to 210 plus would be helpful.

只是，彼得，這只是關於生產力和員工人數的討論。看起來第三季的員工數量又有所下降。因此，看起來，要在第四季末達到第一季 10% 到 15% 的淨成長目標，還需要付出很多努力。那麼，是否會有那麼多新員工在招募中？或者您還必須考慮晉升的數量，如果您可以幫助 194 名 MD 達到 210 名以上，那將會很有幫助。

Sure. And this is why we did first quarter to first quarter as the kind of measurement period because, to your point, there is a lot of fluctuation. A lot of the people that we're parting company with will be exiting -- the exit and the kind of seasonal pattern depending on the notice period, et cetera, et cetera. And then to your point, the promotions coming in during the first quarter.

當然。這就是為什麼我們以第一季到第一季作為測量期，因為正如您所說，存在很大的波動。許多與我們分手的人都會離開——退出方式和季節性模式取決於通知期等等。然後回到你提到的問題，第一季的促銷活動。

And I will just reiterate, I can say with your perfect certainty that we're going to be in the 10 to 15 net add range by the end of the first quarter. So we're highly confident in that. And a lot of it does have to do with just the seasonality of the departures and then the promotions.

我只想重申，我可以非常肯定地說，到第一季末，我們的淨增量將達到 10 到 15 個。因此我們對此非常有信心。其中很大一部分確實與出發的季節性以及促銷活動有關。

Okay, that's great. And do you feel -- it seems like there has been a lot of hiring even this last year, even though head count as growth. So do you feel very positive about sort of the upgrades that you've done and the momentum from the new hires you had already this year?

好的，太好了。您是否覺得——儘管員工人數有所增長，但似乎去年也招募了許多員工。那麼，您對您所做的升級以及今年新員工的招募勢頭感到很樂觀嗎？

Massively. So a couple of comments. First, what we were able to accomplish over 2024 and then a little bit in the recent history right before that, is to fill in gaps that we had in our global platform on the advisory side. So we now have a first-rate sports meeting and entertainment team. We now have a first-rate consumer retail team. We now have a first-rate team in Germany. We now have a very strong kind of flywheel effect across PCA, the fundraising business, restructuring and liability management, sponsor coverage Lazard Capital Solutions, et cetera, with regard to how we're interacting with the large alternative asset managers.

大規模。以下是一些評論。首先，我們在 2024 年以及在此之前的近期歷史中所取得的成就是填補了我們全球平台在諮詢方面的空白。所以我們現在擁有一流的運動會和娛樂團隊。我們現在擁有一流的消費零售團隊。我們現在在德國擁有一流的團隊。就我們與大型另類資產管理公司的互動而言，我們現在在 PCA、籌資業務、重組和負債管理、贊助商涵蓋 Lazard Capital Solutions 等方面形成了非常強大的飛輪效應。

None of that was true two or three years ago. And so the hiring that we did disproportionately in 2024 really spoke to filling in those gaps. What we're now able to do in 2025 is layer in a more muscle in areas where we're already strong, certain sub verticals that we see. So we've got a full mapping of where we see the most promising opportunities to gain yet more wallet. And that's what we're doing. Raymond McGuire is leading our MD recruiting efforts on the advisory side doing an exceptional job, and we're getting a lot of traction and helps.

兩三年前，這一切都不是事實。因此，我們在 2024 年進行的大量招募實際上是為了填補這些空白。到 2025 年，我們所能做的就是在我們已經很強大的領域、我們所看到的某些子垂直領域中加大力度。因此，我們對最有希望獲得更多資金的機會進行了全面的了解。這正是我們正在做的事情。雷蒙德麥奎爾 (Raymond McGuire) 正在領導我們諮詢方面的董事總經理招募工作，做得非常出色，我們得到了很多關注和幫助。

One thing success to get success and the fact that there is a sense of momentum and inflection really helps. And then the final thing I'd say is coming back to the distribution and productivity. We are very pleased with the progress that we've made in encouraging this commercial and collegial culture. It has resulted in two things.

成功的關鍵因素是動力和轉變感，這確實很有幫助。最後我想說的是回到分佈和生產力問題。我們對在鼓勵這種商業和同事文化方面取得的進展感到非常高興。這導致了兩件事。

One is a shift in the distribution of managing directors towards more productive ranges and that there are a lot of different pieces that go into that, the mix of people people that we've hired and some of the people that we've already company with shifting mandate selection and minimum fee requirements, the emphasis on legality all of that is working exceptionally well, and we're seeing the results. And I think that helps to explain a lot of what happened in 2024, and that's why we're optimistic about 2025.

一是董事總經理的分佈向更有生產力的範圍轉變，這裡面有很多不同的因素，包括我們僱用的人員和一些我們已經合作過的人。這些都運作良好，我們正在看到成果。我認為這有助於解釋 2024 年發生的許多事情，這就是我們對 2025 年充滿樂觀的原因。

Okay, great. Thanks.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

James Yaro, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的詹姆斯·亞羅 (James Yaro)。

So I just want to start on secondary. Your secondary team recently put out industry report suggesting that 2024 secondary volumes were up by nearly 40% year-on-year. In their forecast for 2022, the growth slows notably year-on-year. I think in the central case, year-on-year growth, it's about 15%. A few questions here.

所以我只是想從中學開始。您的二級市場團隊最近發布的行業報告顯示，2024 年二級市場交易量年增近 40%。在他們對2022年的預測中，成長速度將比去年同期明顯放緩。我認為，最主要的情況是年成長率約為 15%。這裡有幾個問題。

Maybe you could just help us think about your secondaries business and how it performed relative to those industry forecasts. And second is a very material contributor to results in the fourth quarter of this -- of 2024. And then finally, could you just comment on whether you are of the view that the growth rate in this business could slow in 2025?

也許您可以幫助我們思考一下您的二級市場業務以及它相對於行業預測的表現。第二，這對 2024 年第四季的業績貢獻非常重要。最後，您能否評論一下您是否認為該業務的成長率在 2025 年可能會放緩？

So maybe I should combine the first and third because those are kind of related. And so here's what I would say. First of all, I believe that those growth rates were based on a survey of participants. So there's noise in the overall in the overall figures, I think the point instead to take away is that everyone is expecting continued expansion in the secondaries market.

所以也許我應該把第一點和第三點結合起來，因為它們有點相關。這就是我要說的。首先，我相信這些成長率是基於對參與者的調查而得出的。因此，整體數據中存在噪音，我認為需要注意的一點是，每個人都預期二級市場將繼續擴張。

And the reason for that is I think there has been a view that we just experienced a rapid growth in the secondary market only because the LPs were reluctant to sell portfolio companies -- and so there was a desire for liquidity that boosted the secondary market, both GP and -- sorry, the GPs were reluctant to sell the portfolio competed. -- boosted the demand for liquidity, both among GPs and especially LPs. I don't think that, that's actually the primary explanation of what's going to happen.

原因在於，我認為有一種觀點認為，我們剛剛經歷的二級市場快速成長，只是因為 LP 不願意出售投資組合公司，因此對流動性的需求推動了二級市場的發展。 GP 都不願意出售投資組合。 ——增加了 GP 和 LP 對流動性的需求。我不這麼認為，這實際上是對將要發生的事情的主要解釋。

And therefore, if you took that view, you'd see a significant slowing as the sponsors became more active in selling companies back to the M&A discussion. But I don't think that, that's actually the primary explanation for what's going to happen over the next year or two.

因此，如果你持這種觀點，你會看到，隨著發起人更加積極地將公司重新納入併購討論，你將看到明顯的放緩。但我不認為這實際上是未來一兩年將發生什麼事情的主要解釋。

Instead, the secondaries market has grown rapidly, but it's still affecting a very small share of the private equity world. And perhaps that spur from the need for short-term liquidity associated with fewer sales of portfolio companies help to be an accelerant to the market. But what it has done is it advertise the benefits of the structure to a wider array of sponsors. And so we anticipate continued growth in the overall market because people are now aware of this possibility and the attractiveness and depending -- it's very context dependent.

相反，二級市場雖然發展迅速，但它對私募股權領域的影響仍然很小。也許投資組合公司出售數量減少所帶來的短期流動性需求有助於促進市場的發展。但它所做的是向更廣泛的贊助商宣傳該結構的好處。因此，我們預計整個市場將繼續成長，因為人們現在已經意識到這種可能性和吸引力，而這取決於具體環境。

So our team -- and I think many market participants expect continued growth in the market. I'm not going to comment on survey-based growth rates. I think the dead point is -- we are anticipating continued growth in this market. And then on the question of Lazard's performance, we have a very strong PCA team, as you know.

因此，我們的團隊—我認為許多市場參與者都預期市場將繼續成長。我不會對基於調查的成長率發表評論。我認為關鍵點是——我們預計這個市場將持續成長。關於 Lazard 業績的問題，如您所知，我們擁有一支非常強大的 PCA 團隊。

The mix of business that they have between primary and secondaries has shifted towards secondaries a bit. We have a franchise leading practice in Europe also in this area out of Paris. And we see continued opportunities for Lazard to succeed. We have been very active on in this area over the past couple of months and see continued growth. So I think the market will continue to expand and Lazard is very well positioned under the leadership of Hope Green at PCA to capture additional share within.

他們在主要業務和次要業務之間的組合已稍微轉移到次要業務。我們在巴黎以外的地區也擁有一家特許經營的領導企業。我們看到 Lazard 仍然有機會取得成功。過去幾個月我們在這一領域非常活躍，並看到了持續的成長。因此我認為市場將繼續擴大，在 PCA 的 Hope Green 的領導下，Lazard 處於非常有利的位置，可以獲得更多的市場份額。

Okay. That's very clear. Maybe just one more on the advisory revenue. You obviously had a nice sequential increase in the fourth quarter. Maybe you could just help us think about the trajectory for the first quarter? And specifically, was there any material pull forward that we saw in the fourth quarter I think in my numbers, the multiplier relative to geologic numbers for the fourth quarter was the highest since 2010.

好的。這非常清楚。也許還有關於諮詢收入的問題。你們第四季顯然取得了不錯的連續成長。也許您可以幫助我們思考第一季的發展軌跡？具體來說，我們在第四季度是否看到了任何實質性的拉動？

Well, a few comments. So James, as you will remember, when I sat with you in mid-December, our best guess at that point was a lower -- somewhat lower number than the fourth quarter turned out to be. What really happened between mid-December and these results is that there were timing shifts, but they basically netted out to zero in terms of things that moved out of the quarter and into the quarter. come back to the pull forwards in a second, but relative to mid-December, those netted out to 0.

好吧，有幾點評論。詹姆斯，你會記得，當我在 12 月中旬和你坐在一起時，我們當時的最佳猜測是一個較低的數字——比第四季度的數字要低一些。從 12 月中旬到這些結果公佈之間實際發生的情況是，時間上確實存在變化，但從本季度移出並進入本季度的事物來看，這些變化基本上為零。稍後再回顧前瞻，但相較於 12 月中旬，淨利為 0。

And all of the strengthened results reflect the things that we had at low probability or probability hitting very quickly. So I think it's reflective of a stronger overall environment. So that's point one. Point two is there were pull forward. You can see that in the geologic data but those were largely anticipated even as of mid-December, so they don't explain the delta relative to when you and I last that down.

所有強化結果都反映了我們以低機率或機率非常快地遇到的事情。所以我認為這反映出整體環境更加強勁。這是第一點。第二點是向前拉。你可以在地質數據中看到這一點，但這些數據在 12 月中旬就已經基本上可以預料到了，所以它們無法解釋相對於你我上次經歷的增量。

And then with regard to year as a whole, as I've said, I'm not going to -- I'm not going to give any additional color on the quarter-by-quarter because it is -- it's not a linear process, and I don't -- actually, the experience that we just had over the past month and I we thought things would be a little bit lower in mid-December and then they strengthened just illustrates the uncertainty in the advisory business, but the overall picture, and I think that's the most important thing is one in which we see an increasingly constructive environment. and one in which Lazard is hitting its stride and gaining market share within that overall more constructive environment.

然後就全年而言，正如我所說，我不會——我不會對季度數據給出任何額外的說明，因為它不是線性的過程，而我並不認為——實際上，根據我們上個月的經歷，我認為12 月中旬的情況會稍微低一些，但後來情況卻有所好轉，這說明了諮詢業務的不確定性，從總體情況來看，我認為最重要的是，我們看到一個日益建設性的環境。在整體更積極的環境下，Lazard 正穩步發展，市場佔有率不斷擴大。

That's very helpful. One last one quickly, just on non-comp you had very good discipline in the quarter relative to the revenue. Maybe you could just speak to the noncomp growth trajectory from here and whether you might be able to continue to grow at the mid-single-digit growth rate that you saw for 2024.

這非常有幫助。最後再問一下，就非上市公司而言，相對於收入而言，您本季的紀律非常好。或許您可以談談目前的非公司成長軌跡，以及是否能夠繼續以 2024 年所見的中位數個位數成長率成長。

So it may take those start.

因此可能需要這些才能開始。

So we were -- or yes, so you're talking about the fourth quarter, we had mid-single-digit growth year-over-year. I think that's probably a good proxy for the year ahead. We will continue to look for cost savings, but I think realistically, as we continue to invest in technology, including AI and cybersecurity, we've got continued pricing pressure and market data we've got continued increase in travel and convening events, and then we also have new buildings coming online in London and Germany. So when you look at all of that in totality, I think your estimate is probably pretty reasonable.

所以我們——或者是的，你談論的是第四季度，我們實現了同比增長的中等個位數。我認為這可能是未來一年的一個很好的代表。我們將繼續尋求節約成本的方法，但我認為，現實情況是，隨著我們繼續投資於包括人工智慧和網路安全在內的技術，我們面臨著持續的價格壓力和市場數據，我們的旅行和召開活動的數量持續增加，我們也在倫敦和德國建造新的建築。因此，當你從總體上看所有這些時，我認為你的估計可能相當合理。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Aidan Hall, KBW.

艾丹·霍爾（Aidan Hall），KBW。

Good morning, everyone. Maybe just following up there on the mid-single-digit noncomp guide, you comp guide for the year under the current revenue assumptions for $25 million I was just curious how you're thinking about the margins for both for the 2 businesses against the 23% in advisory this year and 24% in Asset Management just given where some of the hirings taking place and some of those dynamics playing out?

大家早安。也許只是跟進中等個位數的非可比收入指南，根據當前2500 萬美元的收入假設，您對今年的可比收入指南進行了跟踪，我只是好奇您如何看待這兩家企業的利潤率與23 家企業的利潤率相比今年顧問業佔 %，資產管理業佔 24%，只是考慮到一些招聘情況和一些動態？

Well, what I would say is, again, we believe we can achieve our comp ratio objectives even while hiring at the rate that is embodied our 2030 plan. And again, the key to this all working is the ongoing improvements in productivity. We see a lot of room to continue pushing towards higher productivity levels. And that's what creates the room in the comp ratio to hire more productive bankers and bridge them over their kind of ramp period while they're getting up the productivity curve.

好吧，我想說的是，我們相信，即使按照我們 2030 年計劃所體現的速度進行招聘，我們也能實現我們的薪酬比率目標。再次強調，這一切成功的關鍵是生產效率的持續提升。我們看到，繼續推動提高生產力水準還有很大的空間。這為薪酬比率創造了空間，可以僱用更有效率的銀行家，並幫助他們度過生產力曲線上升期。

I'd also say we've got a few examples of people who are able to join the platform and become more productive quicker than in historical practice. That's fantastic, and that helps to that helps to even make the point more forcefully because then there's no bridging that's required or less bridging that's required. So that's, I think, the core point. And then the second 1 is, as we said repeatedly, if we have fantastic talent and we are seeing a lot of interest in the Lazard platform across the board.

我還想說，我們有一些人的例子，他們能夠加入該平台，並且比歷史上更快地提高生產力。這太棒了，這有助於更有力地闡明觀點，因為這樣就不需要任何橋接，或只需要很少的橋接。所以，我認為，這就是核心觀點。然後第二個是，正如我們反覆說過的，如果我們擁有出色的人才，並且我們看到各方面對 Lazard 平台有很大的興趣。

We are willing to go above our targeted range on net additions for some period of time because we think it will pay off for our shareholders and for our ability to serve clients exceptionally well over the medium term. That may mean that the comp ratio gets elevated very temporarily to kind of bridge that transition period.

我們願意在一段時間內超出我們的淨增量目標範圍，因為我們認為這將為我們的股東帶來回報，並且有利於我們在中期內為客戶提供優質服務。這可能意味著薪酬比率會暫時上升，以渡過過渡期。

But ultimately, it will again lead to a shift in the overall distribution of productivity towards the more productive and that is core to reducing a lower comp ratio over time. So with regard to the margins, I think those kind of follow from the previous discussions on non-comp and comp combined. And we see an ability for us to continue to push productivity higher in the financial advisory side of the business and associated with that is ongoing revenue growth.

但最終，它將再次導致生產力整體分配向更有效率的方向轉變，而這正是隨著時間的推移降低較低薪酬比率的核心。因此，關於利潤率，我認為這與先前關於非同業拆借和同業拆借合併的討論類似。我們看到，我們有能力持續提高金融諮詢業務的生產力，並隨之實現持續的收入成長。

Got it. Okay. Understood. I appreciate the color. Maybe just switching gears on the asset management side of the business. The fee rate saw some nice sequential trends and I know there's some 3Q noise with a lumpy outflow. And then it sounds like the impact of sub-advised outflows in 4Q, making up half. So it was just -- curious if you could give us a little more color on the right way to think about the fee rate and maybe the answer is kind of in the pipeline fee rate right now as we think about some of that pipeline mandates being funded?

知道了。好的。明白了。我很欣賞這個顏色。或許只是改變資產管理方面的業務方向。費率出現了一些很好的連續趨勢，而且我知道第三季出現了一些噪音和大量資金流出。這聽起來像是第四季度次級建議資金流出的影響，佔了一半。所以我很好奇，你是否能給我們多一點關於正確思考費率的細節，也許答案就在目前的管道費率中，因為我們正在考慮一些管道任務有資助嗎？

I'll let Evan take this. What I would say again is we highlighted that the $10 billion one, but not funded is in the 95% of revenue category. And those, on average, have higher fees than the sub-advised funds do, but I'll let Evan fill in additional color.

我會讓埃文拿走這個。我想再次強調的是，我們強調過，尚未獲得資助的 100 億美元資金屬於收入類別的 95%。平均而言，這些基金的費用高於次級諮詢基金，但我會讓埃文 (Evan) 補充一些細節。

Yes, Aidan, as you said, sequentially, average fee rate was up a tad. I mean, it's been pretty flat over the course of this year, drifting a little bit higher in the back end of this year. As you mentioned, we had a couple of larger client outflows, which were in lower fee products and platforms and then specifically geographically was some outflows in the US versus your set Japan yen, which are higher fee platforms.

是的，艾丹，正如你所說，平均費率連續上漲了一點。我的意思是，今年全年它一直相當平穩，在今年年底略有上升。正如您所說，我們有幾個較大的客戶資金流出，這些資金流出涉及費用較低的產品和平台，具體從地理位置上看，是美國的一些資金流出，而日元流出則涉及費用較高的平台。

It all comes down to that business mix, which drives the average fee rate across the entire platform. So a lot of ins and outs. I don't think the flows that come in around have that material impact in any given quarter, except when there are specifically large ones that will be significantly different than the average fee rate.

這一切都歸結於業務組合，它決定了整個平台的平均費率。有很多來龍去脈。我認為，在任何一個季度，流入的資金都不會產生實質影響，除非有特別大的資金流與平均費率有顯著差異。

So in general, it's going to be just be the continued business mix shifts that we see in the business from quarter-to-quarter, which is performance of the funds as well as the overall level of assets and the proportion of those assets in the different asset classes in which the clients are investing. So that's the business mix is effectively makes up the average basis points, I'd say from here. I'd probably take the average rate for 2024, the average fee rate is probably a good rate to start the next year and then continue moving from there.

因此，整體而言，我們看到業務組合會逐季發生變化，包括基金的表現、資產的總體水準以及這些資產在投資組合中的佔比。所以我想說，從現在開始，業務組合實際上構成了平均基點。我可能會採用 2024 年的平均利率，平均費率可能是明年開始的好利率，然後繼續從那裡變動。

Ryan Kenny, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的瑞安肯尼。

Hi, good morning. Want to dig in on productivity. Clearly, it's an important driver into the comp ratio improvement, and you surpassed your 2025 target of $8.5 million year early. So any thoughts on whether you can hit your 2028 target of $10 million per MD sooner? And is there a scenario that's realistic where you can surpass that bar this cycle?

嗨，早安。想要深入挖掘生產力。顯然，這是推動同店銷售額比率改善的重要因素，而且你們提前一年就超越了 2025 年 850 萬美元的目標。那麼，您是否認為您可以更快達到 2028 年每位 MD 1000 萬美元的目標？是否存在一個現實的情景，讓你能夠在本週期超越這個標準？

Yes. We think we can surpass that bar and I would say we're ahead of schedule. We'd love to stay ahead of schedule. We see lots of opportunities for further uplift. And look, again, we've talked about this before, but what are the elements of this? It's we are benefiting from an ongoing improvement in the operating environment, we are benefiting from a phenomenon that I highlighted to you all before, which is that as we move into a higher growth scenario, there's a temporary depressant on productivity because the number of bankers entering the ramp of the kind of transition on to the platform exceeds the number of bankers exiting that ramp -- as we move through time, that phenomenon for that depressant erodes and goes to 0 because the number of new bankers even at the higher piece coming on to the ramp equals the number exiting the ramp. So we're benefiting from that. That is -- that is not entirely exhausted yet, but it will be over the next year or two. So there's a further uplift that will occur there. I mentioned things like mandate selection.

是的。我們認為我們能夠超越這個標準，而且我想說我們已經提前完成了計劃。我們希望能夠提前完成任務。我們看到了許多進一步提升的機會。我們之前已經討論過這個問題，但是它的要素是什麼呢？我們受益於經營環境的持續改善，我們受益於我之前向大家強調的一個現象，即隨著我們進入更高的增長情景，生產力會暫時受到抑制，因為銀行家的數量進入過渡平台的坡道的銀行家數量超過了離開坡道的銀行家數量——隨著時間的推移，這種抑制現象逐漸減弱，直到為0，因為即使在更高的位置，新銀行家的數量也進入坡道的人數等於離開坡道的人數。因此我們從中受益。也就是說 — — 這還沒有完全耗盡，但它將在未來一兩年內耗盡。因此那裡將會出現進一步的提升。我提到了諸如任務選擇之類的事情。

We again raised our minimum fee requirement to both reflect, I think, the exceptional work we do on behalf of clients that help us to really focus on the mandate selection. And then we have been, from a cultural perspective, really emphasizing, including explicitly measuring the degree of collegiality at a banker by banker level and rewarding that.

我們再次提高了最低費用要求，我認為這不僅反映了我們為客戶所做的出色工作，也有助於我們真正專注於授權選擇。然後，從文化角度來看，我們一直非常強調，包括明確衡量銀行家在各個層面的合作程度並給予獎勵。

And I think that's paying off. We see positive correlations between more productive bankers and the more collaborative bankers, and we're going to keep pushing in that direction. And then finally, there's the mix of bankers themselves. We have parted company with a significant number of less productive bankers over the past 12 to 24 months, and we've added a lot of bankers that are already off to the races in terms of being both commercial and collegial.

我認為這是有回報的。我們發現，生產力較高的銀行家和協作精神較強的銀行家之間存在著正相關的關係，我們將繼續朝著這個方向努力。最後，還有銀行家本身的混合體。在過去的 12 到 24 個月裡，我們與大量效率較低的銀行家分道揚鑣，並吸收了許多在商業和同事關係方面都已嶄露頭角的銀行家。

So all of that is going to continue, and we see significant opportunity to continue raising productivity, and we certainly hope to remain ahead of schedule. And what I would say is even under the original plan, 10 was a as an objective, not a limit. And you should, I think, reasonably expect that we'll continue to aim to improve productivity beyond that level.

所以所有這些都將繼續下去，我們看到了繼續提高生產力的巨大機會，我們當然希望能夠保持領先於計劃。我想說的是，即使按照原計劃，10 也是一個目標，而不是限制。我認為，你應該合理地預期我們將繼續致力於提高生產力，使其超越這一水平。

Okay. Great. right. And then separately, you sound still very constructive even in a range of interest rate scenario where the forward look hasn't baked in as many rate cuts as we were originally expecting. So can you just give some color on, is there any impact at all on the pipeline if we get no rate cuts this year versus 1 or 2? And are elevated 10-year yields impacting the pipeline at all?

好的。偉大的。正確的。另外，即使在一系列利率情境下，前瞻性並沒有考慮我們最初預期的那麼多降息，您的觀點聽起來仍然非常有建設性。那麼，您能否具體說明一下，如果今年不降息，而不是降息 1 次或 2 次，這會對管道產生什麼影響嗎？10 年期公債殖利率上升是否會對管道產生影響？

Yes. What I would say is, again, I think this is a secondary factor for most M&A discussions at the margin, would it help to have lower rates, sure. But it's not the primary driver of most deals, especially because to your point, the rate cuts haven't even been associated with a commensurate decline. In fact, it's got another direction, as you know, on the long end. In the long end, it's really what it's factored into the DCF analysis, et cetera.

是的。我想說的是，我認為這是大多數邊際併購討論中的次要因素，降低利率有幫助嗎？但它並不是大多數交易的主要驅動力，尤其是因為正如你所說，降息甚至沒有帶來相應的下降。事實上，如你所知，從長遠來看，它還有另一個方向。從長遠來看，這實際上是 DCF 分析中考慮到的因素等等。

So a rate cut that doesn't reduce the long end doesn't actually do very much for any of the M&A analytics or deal environment. So that's point one. Point 2 is that many of our other businesses, if you want to talk about secondary or kind of marginal effects from different rate environments, going other direction. So again, I don't think it's the primary driver of any of this. But with regard to our restructuring and liability management business, with regard to our secondaries business that we're just discussing.

因此，如果降息不能減少長期利率，實際上對併購分析或交易環境都沒有太大幫助。這是第一點。第二點是，如果您想談論不同利率環境的次要效應或邊際效應，我們的許多其他業務都會朝著其他方向發展。所以，我再說一遍，我認為這不是導致這一切的主要因素。但就我們的重組和負債管理業務以及我們剛剛討論的二級市場業務而言。

I mean there are a bunch of things that even in that kind of secondary or tertiary phenomenon effects go in other direction. So -- we haven't done the analysis because I don't think we can. But I don't think the -- if you look at the overall impact of rate cuts on the advisory business, at this point, it is marginal overall because of those offsetting effects.

我的意思是，即使在那種二級或三級現像中，有很多事情的影響也會朝著其他方向發展。所以——我們沒有進行分析，因為我認為我們做不到。但我不認為——如果你看一下降息對諮詢業務的整體影響，就目前情況而言，由於這些抵消效應，降息總體上的影響是微不足道的。

Final thing I'd say is, I think the market is appropriately reflecting what Chair Powell has been saying about the path of inflation. And yesterday, he made it very clear that they're going to wait for incoming data with regard to the path of inflation. -- it's a separate discussion we can have. But I think the most important thing is this is not the primary driver of the way the year will turn out overall.

最後我想說的是，我認為市場恰當地反映了鮑威爾主席關於通膨走勢的說法。昨天，他明確表示，他們將等待通膨走勢的數據。 ——我們可以單獨討論。但我認為最重要的是，這並不是決定今年整體結果的主要驅動因素。

I will turn out. Thank you.

我會出去的。謝謝。

Mike Brown, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克布朗。

Great. I just wanted to circle back on the share count, and maybe just put a little finer point on how to think about that for '25. So if we assume a flat share price would that mean you could keep the share count kind of flattish year-over-year? And obviously, hopefully, share price goes up, but just curious how to think about that in terms of maybe a framework for '25.

偉大的。我只是想重新回顧一下股份數量，並可能更詳細地闡述如何考慮『25 年的股份數量』。那麼，如果我們假設股價持平，這是否意味著股票數量可以保持與去年同期持平？顯然，我希望股價會上漲，但只是好奇如何從 25 年的框架角度來考慮這一點。

Yes, I'll take that one, Mike. So the 1 piece that you're missing is the buybacks, right, because we will have amortization come in throughout the year, which, as I said before, I think we'll be relatively stable versus last year. So if we were to buy back nothing or let's say, we bought back the level that we did in 2024, I think you'd see extracting the share price impact, you'd see a similar increase in the share count over the year. But given that we do plan to increase the buybacks to the extent that we're able to -- you'll see a mitigating impact there.

是的，我接受這個，麥克。所以你遺漏的一部分就是回購，對吧，因為我們全年都會進行攤銷，正如我之前所說，我認為與去年相比我們會相對穩定。因此，如果我們不回購任何股票，或者說，我們回購的股票數量與 2024 年的水平相同，我認為你會看到對股價的影響，你會看到全年股票數量的類似增長。但鑑於我們確實計劃在力所能及的範圍內增加回購量——你會看到緩解的影響。

Okay. Great. Okay. That's helpful. And then, Peter, maybe just a high-level question. I guess 1 thing that we've been focusing on is just this capital markets recovery, but on the IPO side, that recovery has been much more tepid and some of the recent IPOs that kind of underperformed and some have broken price. So it might be too early to tell how that market will progress from here.

好的。偉大的。好的。這很有幫助。然後，彼得，也許這只是一個高層次的問題。我想我們一直關注的一件事就是資本市場的復甦，但在 IPO 方面，復甦一直不溫不火，最近的一些 IPO 表現不佳，有些甚至跌破價格。因此，現在判斷該市場未來將如何發展可能還為時過早。

But if the recovery is weaker or slower do you think that's a bit of a catalyst for M&A activity for your business? Does that just become a much more -- M&A just become a much more attractive exit strategy for sponsors and then some better M&A activity overall? Or in your view, is it kind of better to see that healthy IPO market, too?

但如果經濟復甦勢頭較弱或較慢，您是否認為這會對您企業的併購活動產生一些催化作用？這是否會成為一種更具吸引力的退出策略，進而對贊助商而言，進而成為更好的併購活動？或者您認為，看到健康的 IPO 市場也會更好？

What I would say is if you step back and look at the kind of reopening of the capital markets from relatively constrained environment that occurred a couple of years ago. The IPO market fully reopening is the final stage of that process. Everything else has already occurred. And so debt financing is generally pretty easily available.

我想說的是，如果你回顧一下幾年前資本市場在相對受限的環境下重新開放的情況。IPO市場全面重新開放是這項進程的最後階段。其餘一切都已發生。因此債務融資通常相當容易取得。

The entry of private credit into that sphere has made the overall structure more competitive, et cetera. But yes, the IPO market fully reopening is the last stage. I don't -- I'm not surprised that there are a bit -- it's a bit kind of fits and starts before it fully reopens. I anticipate that with a stable operating environment, that will occur as we go through 2025.

私人信貸進入該領域使得整體結構更加具有競爭力，等等。但確實，IPO市場全面重新開放是最後一個階段。我並不感到驚訝，在它完全重新開放之前，會出現一些斷斷續續的情況。我預計，在穩定的營運環境下，到 2025 年，這種情況就會實現。

And then, yes, I guess, at the margin, to the extent that a portfolio company can't IPO it upsides either that our secondaries business has that as a client or the GP associated with that or the LP associated with that company as clients or that there's a strategic or other sponsor that's interesting buying the company. So I think the bottom line is though, I anticipate the IPO market will kind of take hold in 2025, again, assuming that the operating environment is as we currently expect it to be. And then to your point, yes, to the extent it doesn't, that's probably a marginal benefit for various of our businesses.

是的，我想，從邊際上講，如果一家投資組合公司不能上市，那麼我們的二級市場業務要么將其作為客戶，要么將其與 GP 或與該公司相關的 LP 作為客戶或者有戰略贊助商或其他贊助商對收購該公司有興趣。因此，我認為最重要的是，我預計 IPO 市場將在 2025 年站穩腳跟，同樣假設營運環境如我們目前預期的那樣。然後回到您的問題，是的，如果沒有的話，這對我們的各項業務來說可能是一種邊際效益。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And ladies and gentlemen, this will bring us to the conclusion of Lazard's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. We'd like to thank you all so much for joining us today and wish you all a great remainder of your day. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，這將帶我們結束 Lazard 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。我們非常感謝大家今天的參與，並祝福大家今天剩下的時間過得很愉快。再見。