Lazard Inc (LAZ) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Lazard's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 Lazard 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。此通話正在錄音。（操作員指示）

At this time, I will turn the call over to Alexandra Deignan, Lazard's Head of Investor Relations and Treasury. Please go ahead.

現在，我將把電話轉給 Lazard 投資者關係和財務主管 Alexandra Deignan。請繼續。

Thank you, Angela. Good morning, and welcome to Lazard's earnings call for the second quarter and first half of 2025. I'm Alexandra Deignan, Head of Investor Relations and Treasury.

謝謝你，安吉拉。早上好，歡迎參加 Lazard 2025 年第二季和上半年收益電話會議。我是投資者關係和財務主管 Alexandra Deignan。

In addition to today's audio comments, we have posted our earnings release on our website. A replay of this call will also be available on our website later today.

除了今天的音訊評論外，我們還在我們的網站上發布了我們的收益報告。這次通話的重播也將在今天晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。

Before we begin, let me remind you that we may make forward-looking statements about our business and performance. There are important factors that could cause our actual results, level of activity, performance, achievements, or other events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, those factors discussed in the company's SEC filings, which you can access on our website. Lazard assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of these forward-looking statements and assumes no duty to update them.

在我們開始之前，請允許我提醒您，我們可能會對我們的業務和業績做出前瞻性的陳述。有一些重要因素可能導致我們的實際結果、活動水平、業績、成就或其他事件與前瞻性陳述所表達或暗示的結果、業績、成就或其他事件存在重大差異，包括但不限於公司在美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件中討論的因素，您可以在我們的網站上訪問這些因素。Lazard 對這些前瞻性陳述的準確性或完整性不承擔任何責任，也不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's discussion also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are meaningful when evaluating the company's performance. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP measures is provided in our earnings release and investor presentation.

今天的討論還包括某些非公認會計準則財務指標，我們認為這些指標在評估公司績效時很有意義。我們在收益報告和投資者報告中提供了這些非 GAAP 財務指標與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

Hosting our call today are Peter Orszag, Lazard's Chief Executive Officer and Chairman; and Mary Ann Betsch, Lazard's Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared remarks, Peter and Mary Ann will be joined by Evan Russo, Chief Executive Officer of Asset Management, as they open the call for questions.

今天主持我們電話會議的是 Lazard 執行長兼董事長 Peter Orszag；以及 Lazard 財務長 Mary Ann Betsch。在我們準備好發言之後，Peter 和 Mary Ann 將與資產管理執行長 Evan Russo 一起開始提問。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Peter.

現在，我將把電話轉給彼得。

Thank you, Alli, and good morning to everyone joining today's call. We are pleased to report strong performance and results with total firm-wide adjusted net revenue of $1.4 billion for the first half of the year.

謝謝你，阿里，今天參加電話會議的各位早安。我們很高興地報告強勁的業績和業績，今年上半年全公司調整後的淨收入總額為 14 億美元。

Financial Advisory achieved a record first half of the year with adjusted net revenue of $861 million. Advisory revenue this year has demonstrated the geographic and product diversity of our business. Results represent the overall strength of Lazard's team and brand, which includes record revenue in France and Germany for the first half of the year.

財務諮詢業務上半年創下紀錄，調整後淨收入達 8.61 億美元。今年的諮詢收入反映了我們業務的地域和產品多樣性。業績體現了 Lazard 團隊和品牌的整體實力，其中包括今年上半年在法國和德國創紀錄的收入。

Our performance reflects a global business that also extends well beyond our long-standing strength in strategic M&A, with expanded connectivity to private capital and record revenue in our fundraising business year to date. Over the past 12 months, revenue associated with private capital has been over 40% of total Financial Advisory revenue, reflecting our increased emphasis on this business and hiring over time.

我們的業績體現了我們的全球業務，該業務遠遠超出了我們在戰略併購方面的長期優勢，擴大了與私人資本的聯繫，並且今年迄今為止我們的籌款業務收入創下了紀錄。在過去的 12 個月中，與私人資本相關的收入佔財務諮詢總收入的 40% 以上，這反映出我們對這項業務的重視程度不斷提高，並且一直在不斷招聘。

Asset Management continues to deliver solid results, with adjusted net revenue of $533 million for the first half of the year. As we have previously stated, we see this year as an inflection point for our Asset Management business. The second quarter reflects solid progress towards our goal of more balanced flows, with positive net flows in the quarter, record gross inflows for the first half of the year, and AUM increasing 10% year to date. This progress is a result of strong investment performance, efforts to better focus our sales and distribution on core products and strategies, and more favorable market conditions for our global strategies.

資產管理業務持續取得穩健業績，上半年調整後淨收入為 5.33 億美元。正如我們之前所說，我們認為今年是我們資產管理業務的轉捩點。第二季度，我們在實現更平衡的資金流動目標方面取得了堅實進展，本季度淨資金流入為正，上半年總流入量創歷史新高，資產管理規模 (AUM) 今年迄今增長了 10%。這項進步得益於強勁的投資績效、努力將銷售和分銷重點放在核心產品和策略上，以及更有利於我們全球策略的市場條件。

Our success in driving positive net inflows has been achieved while also continuing to win new mandates, and as a result, our current won-but-not-yet-funded mandates total is even higher than the elevated level at the beginning of the year. Overall, we continue to see robust client engagement across both of our businesses as corporate and investment leaders move beyond the watchful waiting mindset of the previous quarter and grow more comfortable making decisions in the current environment.

我們在推動正淨流入方面取得了成功，同時也繼續贏得了新的授權，因此，我們目前贏得但尚未獲得資金的授權總額甚至高於年初的高水準。總體而言，隨著企業和投資領導者擺脫上一季的觀望心態，在當前環境下做出決策變得更加自如，我們繼續看到我們兩項業務的客戶參與度強勁。

I'll share more on our outlook shortly. But first, let me turn the call over to Mary Ann to provide further details on the quarter's results.

我很快就會分享更多我們的展望。但首先，請允許我將電話轉給瑪麗安，以提供有關本季業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

Today, we reported second-quarter firm-wide adjusted net revenue of $770 million, up 12% from the same time last year. Increase in firm-wide revenue was driven by our Financial Advisory business. Financial Advisory adjusted net revenue was a record $491 million for the second quarter, up 20% from one year ago.

今天，我們報告第二季全公司調整後淨收入為 7.7 億美元，比去年同期成長 12%。我們的財務諮詢業務推動了全公司收入的成長。財務諮詢部門第二季調整後淨收入創下 4.91 億美元的紀錄，比去年同期成長 20%。

Our banking teams performed well across the firm, with Lazard participating in a number of marquee transactions during the second quarter. Completed transactions include CD&R's acquisition of a controlling 50% stake in Sanofi's Consumer Health unit and Roquette Frères' acquisition of IFF Pharma Solutions. In addition, recently announced transactions include Ferrero International's agreement to acquire WK Kellogg, Assura's recommended combination with Primary Health Properties, and L'Oréal's agreement to acquire Color Wow.

我們的銀行團隊在整個公司表現良好，Lazard 在第二季度參與了多項重大交易。已完成的交易包括 CD&R 收購賽諾菲消費者健康部門 50% 的控股權以及 Roquette Frères 收購 IFF Pharma Solutions。此外，最近宣布的交易包括費列羅國際同意收購 WK Kellogg、Assura 建議與 Primary Health Properties 合併以及歐萊雅同意收購 Color Wow。

In addition, corporate restructuring assignments include company roles with Solo Brands and Wilbur-Ellis and creditor roles involving Franchise Group, Saks Global, and Southern Water. We also engaged in several private equity assignments, including advising Accel-KKR, Hidden Harbor Partners, and IDG Capital on continuation funds, advising main sale partners on the closing of its Fund VII and advising on capital structure and executing debt raises for ZF Friedrichshafen, NeXtWind, and iFIT Health & Fitness.

此外，公司重組任務還包括與 Solo Brands 和 Wilbur-Ellis 合作的公司職位以及與 Franchise Group、Saks Global 和 Southern Water 合作的債權人職位。我們也參與了多項私募股權項目，包括為 Accel-KKR、Hidden Harbor Partners 和 IDG Capital 提供延續基金方面的諮詢，為主要銷售合作夥伴提供其基金 VII 的關閉方面的諮詢，以及為 ZF Friedrichshafen、NeXtWind 和 iFIT Health & Fitness 提供資本結構方面的諮詢和執行債務。

Turning to Asset Management. For the second quarter, adjusted net revenue was $268 million, up 1% compared to the second quarter last year and up 2% on a sequential basis. Management fees for the second quarter increased 1% compared to the second quarter last year, with lower average AUM more than offset by higher average fees. Average AUM for the second quarter of $239 billion was 3% lower than the second quarter of 2024 and up 3% on a sequential basis. As of June 30, we reported AUM of $248 billion, 2% higher than June 2024 and 9% higher than March 2025.

轉向資產管理。第二季度，調整後淨營收為 2.68 億美元，較去年同期成長 1%，較上一季成長 2%。第二季的管理費與去年同期相比增加了 1%，平均 AUM 的下降被平均費用的上升所抵消。第二季的平均 AUM 為 2,390 億美元，比 2024 年第二季下降 3%，季增 3%。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的報告 AUM 為 2,480 億美元，比 2024 年 6 月高 2%，比 2025 年 3 月高 9%。

During the quarter, we had market appreciation of $11.9 billion, foreign exchange appreciation of $8.4 billion, and net inflows of $700 million. We see ongoing client engagement across our investment platforms, particularly with our global, international, emerging markets, and quantitative strategies. Illustrative examples of new mandates include $1 billion from a US public pension into Global Equity Advantage, $650 million win from a Nordic client for Japanese equities, $600 million from a Korean institution into emerging markets equities, and $500 million into international quality growth from a large US retirement provider.

本季度，我們的市場升值了 119 億美元，外匯升值了 84 億美元，淨流入了 7 億美元。我們看到客戶持續參與我們的投資平台，特別是我們的全球、國際、新興市場和量化策略。新授權的典型例子包括從美國公共退休金中抽取 10 億美元投資於 Global Equity Advantage、從北歐客戶手中贏得 6.5 億美元投資於日本股票、從韓國機構手中贏得 6 億美元投資於新興市場股票，以及從一家大型美國退休提供商手中贏得 5 億美元投資於國際優質增長基金。

Now turning to expenses. For the second quarter of 2025, our adjusted compensation expense was $504 million, resulting in a ratio of 65.5% compared to 66% for the second quarter one year ago. Our adjusted non-compensation expense for the second quarter was $157 million, equating to a ratio of 20.4% compared to 21.7% for the second quarter last year. While remaining focused on expense management, we continue to invest in the business to support our long-term growth, including successful recruiting efforts to expand our team of Financial Advisory managing directors and the buildout of our ETF business in Asset Management.

現在談談費用。2025 年第二季度，我們的調整後薪資支出為 5.04 億美元，比例為 65.5%，而去年同期第二季的比例為 66%。我們第二季的調整後非薪資支出為 1.57 億美元，相當於 20.4%，而去年第二季為 21.7%。在繼續專注於費用管理的同時，我們繼續投資於業務以支持我們的長期成長，包括成功招募人才以擴大我們的財務諮詢董事總經理團隊以及擴大我們的資產管理 ETF 業務。

Shifting to taxes. Our adjusted effective tax rate for the second quarter was 36.5%, compared to 14% for the second quarter of 2024. We currently expect our full-year 2025 effective tax rate to be in the mid-20% range.

轉向稅收。我們第二季的調整後有效稅率為 36.5%，而 2024 年第二季為 14%。我們目前預計 2025 年全年有效稅率將在 20% 左右。

Turning to capital allocation. In the second quarter of 2025, we returned $60 million to shareholders, including a quarterly dividend of $47 million. In addition, yesterday, we declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share.

轉向資本配置。2025 年第二季度，我們向股東返還了 6,000 萬美元，其中包括 4,700 萬美元的季度股息。此外，昨天我們宣布每股 0.50 美元的季度股息。

Now, I'll turn the call back to Peter.

現在，我將把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Mary Ann.

謝謝你，瑪麗安。

With regard to the M&A outlook, progress will not be linear, but as long as outstanding tariff issues are resolved in line with current expectations over the coming weeks, we see a significantly improving environment for Financial Advisory activity. Dialogue with corporate strategics continues to broaden, corporate balance sheets are strong, and clients are adapting to shifting trade policies.

就併購前景而言，進展不會是線性的，但只要未來幾週內按照當前預期解決未決的關稅問題，我們就會看到財務諮詢活動的環境顯著改善。與企業策略的對話不斷擴大，企業資產負債表強勁，客戶正在適應不斷變化的貿易政策。

Financing markets are also generally constructive, despite the risks surrounding heightened unpredictability. Technology and generative AI, the energy transition, the biotech revolution, and shifts in global supply chains remain underlying tailwinds that further support client activity.

儘管不可預測性加劇帶來風險，但融資市場整體仍保持建設性。技術和產生人工智慧、能源轉型、生物技術革命以及全球供應鏈的轉變仍然是進一步支持客戶活動的潛在順風。

Looking ahead, we anticipate that private equity will play an increasingly active role in M&A. Lazard is well positioned to benefit, reflecting our ongoing investments in our private capital coverage efforts. Client engagement remains robust across our global offices, with notable activity in fundraising and liability management, supported by our ability to deliver innovative solutions across both public and private markets.

展望未來，我們預期私募股權將在併購中發揮越來越積極的作用。拉札德 (Lazard) 處於有利地位，可以從中受益，這反映了我們對私人資本覆蓋工作的持續投資。我們在全球辦事處的客戶參與度依然強勁，在籌款和負債管理方面活動顯著，這得益於我們向公共和私人市場提供創新解決方案的能力。

Finally, our talent pipeline continues to grow, with senior bankers attracted to our strong culture, global presence, and the momentum behind our long-term growth strategy. We've hired 14 Financial Advisory managing directors so far in 2025, and we remain on track this year to achieve or even exceed our 2030 objective of expanding our team of financial advisories by 10 to 15 net per year.

最後，我們的人才儲備不斷擴大，高階銀行家被我們強大的文化、全球影響力以及長期成長策略背後的動力所吸引。到 2025 年為止，我們已經聘請了 14 名財務諮詢董事總經理，今年我們仍有望實現甚至超過 2030 年的目標，即每年將財務諮詢團隊淨擴大 10 至 15 人。

Recent talent additions in our consumer and retail, healthcare and power, energy and infrastructure groups are already supporting our performance and resulting in new client business. Overall, an improving environment, along with our expanded connectivity to private capital, our continued progress in hiring, and Lazard's unique ability to pair business advice with geopolitical insights, all support ongoing business momentum in our advisory business.

我們消費者和零售、醫療保健和電力、能源和基礎設施集團最近新增的人才已經為我們的業績提供了支持，並帶來了新的客戶業務。總體而言，環境的改善、我們與私人資本的聯繫的擴大、我們在招聘方面的持續進步以及 Lazard 將商業建議與地緣政治見解相結合的獨特能力，都支持我們的諮詢業務持續保持業務勢頭。

Turning to Asset Management. Our increased focus and accountability within sales and distribution, enhancements to our investment platform, and the addition of new talent over the past couple of years are delivering results with record growth inflows in the first half of the year. We anticipate our business to benefit further if investor preference continues to evolve outside of the United States, given our extensive offerings in global, international, and emerging market strategies.

轉向資產管理。過去幾年來，我們在銷售和分銷方面更加註重重點和責任，增強了我們的投資平台，並增加了新的人才，這些都帶來了成果，今年上半年的資金流入創下了創紀錄的增長。鑑於我們在全球、國際和新興市場策略中提供的廣泛產品，我們預計，如果投資者偏好繼續向美國以外發展，我們的業務將進一步受益。

As I mentioned earlier, even with robust gross inflows year to date, successful sales efforts continue to replenish our won-but-not-yet-funded mandates. During the second quarter, we also successfully launched our first active ETF product set in the US, which includes our Japanese equity, equity megatrends, next-gen technologies, and international dynamic equity ETFs, with additional ETFs planned for launch later this year. Progress over time towards our long-term goals is supported by our ability to deliver Lazard's premier strategies in new modalities that meet client demand.

正如我之前提到的，即使今年迄今總流入資金強勁，成功的銷售努力仍繼續補充我們已贏得但尚未獲得資金的授權。在第二季度，我們也成功在美國推出了首批主動型 ETF 產品，其中包括日本股票、股票大趨勢、下一代技術和國際動態股票 ETF，並計劃於今年稍後推出更多 ETF。我們能夠以滿足客戶需求的新模式實施 Lazard 的首要策略，這為我們實現長期目標提供了支援。

Beyond product development, we are focused on generating alpha by leveraging leading market and research insights. To advance this effort, last month we announced that Eric Van Nostrand has joined Lazard Asset Management as Global Head of Markets and Chief Economist.

除了產品開發之外，我們還致力於利用領先的市場和研究洞察力來產生阿爾法。為了推動這項努力，上個月我們宣布 Eric Van Nostrand 加入 Lazard Asset Management 擔任全球市場主管兼首席經濟學家。

Across the firm, our focus on helping clients navigate a complex economic and geopolitical landscape has resulted in another strong quarter and first half of the year. We continue to execute against our Lazard 2030 plan with our geographic and product diversification and firm-wide momentum positioning as well for a more constructive business environment.

在整個公司，我們專注於幫助客戶應對複雜的經濟和地緣政治形勢，這使得本季和上半年業績再創強勁。我們將繼續執行 Lazard 2030 計劃，實現地理和產品多樣化以及全公司的勢頭定位，以創造更具建設性的商業環境。

Now, we'll open the call to questions.

現在，我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Devin Ryan, Citizens JMP.

（操作員指示）Devin Ryan，公民 JMP。

Great. Good morning. How's everyone?

偉大的。早安.大家好嗎？

It's great. Thanks.

這很棒。謝謝。

Good. Peter, I want to come back to some of the commentary just on the advisory outlook, and good to hear about the growth in mandates from the beginning of the year. Just want to get maybe a little bit more texture around the trajectory of recovering that you're seeing in the business and just whether we're back to maybe the same level of enthusiasm as where the year started.

好的。彼得，我想回到一些關於諮詢前景的評論，很高興聽到今年年初以來授權的增長。只是想更詳細地了解您所看到的業務復甦軌跡，以及我們是否已經恢復到年初的熱情水平。

It seems like we maybe lost a month or two of the actual year, but are we kind of back on track here? Or is there still some lingering uncertainty on topics like tariffs are still weighing on sentiment in pockets and so you would characterize it as maybe not quite as robust as you were hoping coming into the year?

看起來我們可能浪費了一兩個月的時間，但我們是否又回到了正軌？或者，在關稅等話題上是否仍然存在一些不確定性，仍在影響部分群體的情緒，因此您認為今年的市場表現可能不如您所希望的那麼強勁？

Three comments. The first is, before we get to the M&A market, which is what I think you're fundamentally asking about, I just want to emphasize again the efforts that we have been making to diversify our business model on the advisory side. And so we're now at a business mix that's roughly 60% M&A and 40% non-M&A, and I think that will continue to evolve over time as we continue to build out additional products and services that we can offer to clients beyond our long-standing excellence in strategic M&A. So that's the first point.

有三條評論。首先，在我們進入併購市場之前，我認為這是你主要想問的，我只想再次強調我們一直在努力在諮詢方面實現業務模式多樣化。因此，我們現在的業務組合大約為 60% 的併購和 40% 的非併購，我認為，隨著我們繼續開發可以為客戶提供的更多產品和服務，超越我們在戰略併購方面長期卓越的表現，這一組合將隨著時間的推移而繼續發展。這是第一點。

Second point is, I never thought that what I'll call the Davos consensus at the beginning of the year was realistic. It was probably a bit too frothy even at the moment. So that's just an aside on the expectations at the beginning of the year. But then third, what I would say is, now I do think we're in an increasingly constructive environment. Let me just unpack why we see it that way.

第二點是，我從來沒有想過今年年初我所說的達沃斯共識是現實的。即便在此刻，它可能有點太泡沫了。這只是對年初的期望的補充。第三，我想說的是，我確實認為我們正處於一個日益建設性的環境中。讓我來解釋一下我們為什麼會這樣看。

All along, there are very strong underlying kind of tectonic plate-type drivers of M&A activity, especially innovation and technology, increasing returns to scale in many businesses, and then some of the other themes that I mentioned earlier. So those persist as big strong tailwinds. We have gone through a period where there have been various different headwinds that have at least mitigated some of that. Partly, it had to do with tariff uncertainty at the beginning of April, and as I mentioned, I think that uncertainty has come in.

一直以來，併購活動都存在著非常強大的潛在板塊式驅動力，尤其是創新和技術，許多企業的規模報酬不斷增加，以及我之前提到的一些其他主題。因此，這些因素將繼續成為強勁的順風。我們經歷了一段時期，期間存在著各種不同的不利因素，但這些因素至少減輕了一些。部分原因是與四月初的關稅不確定性有關，正如我所提到的，我認為不確定性已經出現。

We do need to see that get finalized and get commemorated in deals with important trading partners as opposed to still a little bit of uncertainty about exactly how it will settle. We could talk more about that. But I think that's more likely than not to land in a place that is consistent with what the market's currently expecting. So the most pronounced part of that headwind could be put to the side.

我們確實需要看到這項協議最終得到落實，並在與重要貿易夥伴的協議中得到紀念，而不是對其具體如何解決仍存在一些不確定性。我們可以就此進一步討論。但我認為這很有可能與市場目前的預期一致。因此，最明顯的逆風部分可以被放在一邊。

The second question involves the regulatory environment. Again, I think at the beginning of the year, the consensus was probably a little too wildly optimistic that there would be no regulatory reviews and anything goes. That was never going to be the case. I think we always had a pretty realistic view that the antitrust environment, for example, would be more accommodating but not infinitely more accommodating than previously. And I think that is how it's playing out.

第二個問題涉及監管環境。我再說一次，我認為，今年年初的共識可能有點過於樂觀，認為不會有監管審查，一切皆有可能。事實絕對不會如此。我認為，我們始終有一個非常現實的看法，即反壟斷環境將會更加寬鬆，但不會比以前更寬鬆。我認為事情就是這樣發生的。

We did, for example, see a significant acceleration in the average time to close on M&A deals in the second quarter as one example of a leading indicator on potential changes in that regulatory environment that we believe will be ongoing. And then third is the financing situation, financing markets, those have generally been improving. The IPO market is still not fully open. But the rest of the financing markets, I think we've seen material improvements over the past, let's call it, several months.

例如，我們確實看到第二季併購交易的平均完成時間顯著加快，這是監管環境潛在變化的領先指標之一，我們認為這種變化將會持續下去。第三是融資狀況、融資市場整體有所改善。IPO市場仍未完全開放。但我認為，其餘融資市場在過去幾個月已經出現了實質的改善。

And so you put all of that together and then combine it with the fact that a lot of Boards and C-suites want to respond to those underlying drivers that I mentioned at the beginning by doing something. And inorganic activity is often a very attractive thing to do. And so we're just seeing -- what I can report is we're seeing an acceleration in dialog and the willingness of Boards and C-suites to kind of say the world may be a bit more uncertain than it was at some time in the past, but we've got to look through that and act anyway.

所以，你把所有這些放在一起，然後結合這樣一個事實：許多董事會和高階主管都希望透過採取行動來應對我在一開始提到的那些潛在驅動因素。無機活動通常是一件非常吸引人的事情。因此，我們看到——我可以報告的是，我們看到對話正在加速，董事會和高階主管也願意說，世界可能比過去某個時候更加不確定，但我們必須看透這一點，並採取行動。

So the final comment I'll say is, obviously, we have a very strong presence both here in the United States and in Europe. This quarter, in the first half of the year, we saw a bit more of an uptick in European activity. That may get balanced as we go through the year by an expansion in US activity. Most of the comments I was just referring, I think, tilted a bit towards the US M&A market.

所以我要說的最後一點是，顯然，我們在美國和歐洲都擁有非常強大的影響力。本季度，也就是今年上半年，我們看到歐洲活動略有回升。隨著美國經濟活動的擴大，這種情況可能會得到平衡。我認為，我剛才提到的大多數評論都有點傾向於美國併購市場。

Thanks, Peter. Excellent color. Appreciate it.

謝謝，彼得。顏色極佳。非常感謝。

And maybe just to switch gears to the Asset Management business and touch on the net inflows, which we're going to see. It sounds like a combination of both product and distribution, and you've made some good moves on establishing right products. But on distribution specifically, can you just talk a little bit more functionally some of the things you've put in place to accelerate distribution momentum? What's working there? What changes have been made? And then just an interconnected question, just how that unfunded mandate backlog has trended just after the really nice June there, if there's any order of magnitude you can give there on how that's backfilling. Thank you.

也許只是轉向資產管理業務並觸及我們將要看到的淨流入。這聽起來像是產品和分銷的結合，而且您在建立正確的產品方面已經採取了一些很好的舉措。但具體到分銷方面，您能否更具體談談您為加速分銷勢頭所採取的一些措施？那裡在做什麼？做了哪些改變？然後是一個相互關聯的問題，在六月真正美好的時光之後，無資金支持的強制性任務積壓趨勢如何，您是否可以給出一個數量級來說明如何填補這一缺口。謝謝。

Sure. So on the second question, what I said was that it is higher than the elevated level at the beginning of the year. We have not -- we're not going to get into the habit of providing a regular numerical update, but we did provide that number at the beginning of the year. So you can take that number. And I just said it was higher than that.

當然。關於第二個問題，我說的是，它比年初的高點還要高。我們沒有——我們不會養成定期提供數位更新的習慣，但我們確實在年初提供了這個數字。所以你可以拿這個號碼。我只是說它比這要高。

And that's a really encouraging thing to see, because it suggests that the progress that we're making on flows is not eating into the feedstock, if you will, of future flows. But instead, it suggests changes that we're seeing in terms of how we're operating and what our clients are looking for that should be more sustainable.

看到這一點確實令人鼓舞，因為這表明我們在流量方面取得的進展不會蠶食未來流量的原料。但相反，它表明我們在營運方式和客戶需求方面正在發生更永續的變化。

With regard to what we've been doing, I'd say two things. One is there were changes in the sales and distribution teams, both in the United States and globally, that were made over the past couple of years. Sometimes it takes people time to kind of get up the ramp in terms of effectiveness and getting used to a new platform. I think we're seeing that occur -- A.

關於我們所做的事情，我想說兩件事。一是過去幾年裡，美國和全球的銷售和分銷團隊都發生了變化。有時人們需要花費一些時間來提高效率並適應新平台。我認為我們看到了這種情況的發生——A。

And then B, I mentioned more clarity and accountability. There was an exercise towards the end of last year and at the beginning of this year to set goals for the teams in terms of, at a very specific product and strategy level against very specific clients, what the sales and distribution goals would look like. And we've been attentive to making sure that we're hitting those goals and it's paying off. And so that's what I meant by more clarity and accountability.

然後 B，我提到了更多的清晰度和責任感。去年年底和今年年初進行了一次練習，為團隊設定目標，針對非常具體的客戶，在非常具體的產品和策略層面，銷售和分銷目標是什麼樣子的。我們一直致力於確保實現這些目標並取得成果。這就是我所說的更加清晰和負責。

And the final thing I'd say is, we talked earlier in the year about some of the very strong investment performance that we have accomplished and the excellent investment teams that we have. And what we are seeing is within those flows is a shift towards net inflows in many of the areas where we've seen excellent investment performance -- so emerging market equity, global equity, quantitative equity, Japanese equity as being some of the examples. And so it's not just that there's net inflows, but those net inflows are occurring towards many of the investment products and strategies where we've seen excellent performance is the first point.

最後我想說的是，我們在今年稍早談到了我們取得的一些非常強勁的投資績效以及我們擁有的優秀投資團隊。我們看到，這些資金流動正在向淨流入轉變，許多領域的投資表現都非常出色——新興市場股票、全球股票、量化股票、日本股票就是其中的一些例子。因此，不僅有淨流入，而且這些淨流入還出現在許多投資產品和策略中，我們看到這些產品和策略表現優異，這是第一點。

And the second point is most of what's occurred to date is not, in fact, the vast bulk of what has occurred to date has not really reflected this ongoing investor sentiment shift away from US equity in particular. So if that were to continue, and I think there are probably reasons that it's likely to continue, that will be a further boost to the Asset Management business.

第二點是，迄今為止發生的大部分事情實際上並沒有真正反映出投資人情緒正在從美國股市轉向其他市場。因此，如果這種情況繼續下去，而且我認為可能有理由繼續下去，這將進一步促進資產管理業務。

Great. Really helpful. Thanks so much.

偉大的。真的很有幫助。非常感謝。

Ryan Kenny, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的瑞安·肯尼。

Hi. Good morning. I just want to square the comments on significantly improving advisory outlook. There's been some upbeat commentary. And the comp ratio is flat sequentially at 65.5%. So any thoughts around timing to hit your goal comp ratio of 60% or below? And with deal conditions quickly improving, can you get there sooner rather than later?

你好。早安.我只是想回應關於顯著改善諮詢前景的評論。有一些樂觀的評論。而比較比率則與上一季持平，為 65.5%。那麼，對於何時達到 60% 或以下的目標補償率，您有什麼想法嗎？隨著交易條件的迅速改善，您能否盡快實現這一目標？

Sure. So a couple of comments. First, I said significantly improving, but I also said it won't be linear. We are very cautious about the quarter-to-quarter fluctuations which always happen in this business because many of the transactions are lumpy and things can move in and out, et cetera. So we held our comp ratio flat this quarter because we think that's the best and most conservative thing to do.

當然。有幾點評論。首先，我說的是顯著改善，但我也說過這不會是線性的。我們對這個行業中經常發生的季度波動非常謹慎，因為許多交易都是不穩定的，事情可能會有進有出，等等。因此，我們本季維持了同店銷售額比率不變，因為我們認為這是最好、最保守的做法。

Where the comp ratio actually lands will depend not only on the market and our performance against that market, but also on the hiring front. I mentioned that we will be at or potentially above the 2030 average target that we have of 10 to 15 net MDs per year. The reason we're doing that, obviously, is because we think that there will be additional revenue and productivity that comes from those hires and those investments over time. We're really excited about the quality of the people that we're attracting, but that will obviously also influence the comp ratio.

薪酬比率的實際水準不僅取決於市場和我們在該市場的表現，還取決於招聘方面。我提到，我們將達到或可能超過 2030 年的平均目標，即每年 10 到 15 名淨 MD。我們這樣做的原因顯然是因為我們認為隨著時間的推移，這些招募和投資將帶來額外的收入和生產力。我們對所吸引人才的素質感到非常興奮，但這顯然也會影響薪酬比率。

And then with regard to the -- when we can get back to the 60%, that is our goal. It's going to depend on market conditions along with our performance. I'm not going to give you a specific timetable for that other than to say it remains our goal, and I think it's pretty clear where we want to land. The parts that we can control involve making sure, for example, that we are raising productivity, which affects the comp ratio, because it's where a lot of the operating leverage on the Financial Advisory side comes from.

然後至於——當我們能夠回到 60% 時，這就是我們的目標。這將取決於市場狀況以及我們的表現。我不會給你一個具體的時間表，只是說這仍然是我們的目標，我認為我們想要達到的目標非常明確。我們可以控制的部分包括確保我們提高生產力，這會影響補償比率，因為這是財務諮詢方面的許多營運槓桿的來源。

Given the roughly fixed costs associated with the non-MDs, as you raise, MD productivity, that has a significant benefit in terms of the non-MD comp pool, at least relative to the revenue. Making sure that we're hiring the right people, and we're very pleased about that, and then making sure that we are being very conscious of the trade-offs in terms of compensation versus returns to our shareholders.

考慮到與非 MD 相關的大致固定成本，正如您所提出的，MD 生產力對於非 MD 薪酬池而言具有顯著的優勢，至少相對於收入而言。確保我們聘用合適的人才，我們對此感到非常高興，然後確保我們非常清楚薪酬與股東回報之間的權衡。

So more to come on all of that, but it's still early in the year, and we're going to have to see how it all plays out. We are seeing an increasingly constructive environment, but seeing it and experiencing it are two different things.

關於這一切，我們還會做更多，但現在還只是年初，我們還得看看這一切將如何發展。我們看到環境越來越具有建設性，但看到它和經歷它是兩碼事。

And on the non-MD piece, how do you think about associate headcount? Are you rightsized to handle the volume coming your way? Or do you see yourself doing more hiring there?

關於非 MD 部分，您如何看待助理員工人數？您是否有足夠的能力處理您遇到的量？或者您認為自己會在那裡招募更多員工嗎？

I think we are in a good place with regard to our non-MD ranks. We actually have had an increase in the so-called TAE, the total associate equivalent, ratio to each MD over the past year or two. So we've got capacity to meet -- I don't want to overstate the case because our people obviously work hard, but we do have capacity to meet an increasingly constructive environment.

我認為，就我們的非 MD 隊伍而言，我們的處境很好。事實上，在過去的一兩年裡，我們所謂的 TAE（總員工當量）與每位 MD 的比率有所增加。因此，我們有能力應對——我不想誇大這一點，因為我們的人民顯然工作努力，但我們確實有能力應對日益建設性的環境。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Alex Bond, KBW.

亞歷克斯·邦德（Alex Bond），KBW。

Great. Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for taking the question.

偉大的。謝謝。早上好，感謝您回答這個問題。

So just wanted to start on the M&A backdrop in Europe as it relates to the US. I'm just curious if you could provide a little bit more color as to your feeling relating to sentiment in terms of the difference between what we're seeing in Europe and the US currently. It looks like EU announcements at the industry level didn't rebound to the same degree in May, June as they did in the US. So just curious as to what you're hearing in the market currently.

因此，我只是想從與美國相關的歐洲併購背景開始。我只是好奇，您是否可以更詳細地描述您對目前歐洲和美國之間的差異的感受。看起來，歐盟產業層面的公告在 5 月和 6 月並沒有像美國那樣出現相同程度的反彈。所以我只是好奇你目前在市場上聽到了什麼消息。

Sure. Well, first, let me just start by saying one of the benefits of the increasingly diversified business model we have is that we can kind of skate or surf to where the opportunities are. In the first half of the year, that was a bit disproportionate in Europe. I think that's great that we have a long-established and preeminent practice there. Most of the European activity that we're seeing is not -- I may have misinterpreted your question, but it's not Europe-US activity. It's Europe-Europe or Europe-somewhere in the rest of the world. There's also significant non-M&A activity out of Europe that is relevant also.

當然。嗯，首先，我想說的是，我們日益多樣化的商業模式的好處之一是，我們可以像滑板或衝浪一樣到達有機會的地方。今年上半年，歐洲的現像有點不成比例。我認為我們在那裡擁有悠久而卓越的實踐真是太好了。我們看到的大多數歐洲活動並不是——我可能誤解了你的問題，但這不是歐美活動。它是歐洲——歐洲或歐洲——世界其他地方的某個地方。歐洲以外也存在一些重要的非併購活動。

I would note before I turn to other dimensions of this that we're also doing a significant amount of hiring in Europe. So we just added a senior financial sponsors coverage person in the UK. We have -- we are expanding to a new office in Northern Europe. We have made other hires in London to do insurance coverage and so on. We're going to continue. We have a fantastic new debt advisory team in Germany that adds to the strength of our German team. So a lot of diversified but very highly talented people being added to our platform in Europe.

在談到其他方面之前，我想指出的是，我們也在歐洲進行了大量招募。因此，我們剛剛在英國增加了一位高級財務贊助商報道人員。我們正在擴展到北歐的一個新辦公室。我們在倫敦還僱用了其他人來負責保險業務等等。我們將繼續。我們在德國擁有一支出色的新債務諮詢團隊，增強了我們德國團隊的實力。因此，許多多元化且才華橫溢的人才被加入我們的歐洲平台。

With regard to where things settle for the rest of the year, which is I think the second part of your question, the US activity is -- coming back to what I said in terms of increasingly constructive environment, I do think that in the back half of this year, that's where you're going to probably see a disproportionate pickup relative to at least our experience year to date based on the dialog that we're engaged with and where we're seeing new activity. But we also expect continued high levels of activity out of Europe. I mean, just overnight, we had the successful defense of Banco BPM against the takeover attempt from UniCredit where we were advising Banco BPM. There's ongoing activity in Europe in addition to the US.

至於今年剩餘時間的情況如何，我認為這是你問題的第二部分，美國的活動是 - 回到我所說的日益建設性的環境，我確實認為在今年下半年，根據我們正在進行的對話以及我們看到的新活動，你可能會看到相對於我們今年迄今為止的經驗而言不成比例的回升。但我們也預期歐洲以外的活動將持續保持高水準。我的意思是，就在一夜之間，我們成功阻止了 UniCredit 的收購企圖，當時我們為 Banco BPM 提供諮詢服務。除美國外，歐洲也在持續進行活動。

Great. No, that's helpful color. And then maybe as a follow-up, just to quickly go back to the hiring pipeline, you've announced a strong number of senior hires here year to date and you touched on this briefly earlier. But I'm curious as to if you've seen any shift in the market there, as we've seen activity rebound over the last couple of months, and I guess just broadly on your outlook for hiring through year-end here.

偉大的。不，那是有用的顏色。然後也許作為後續，只是為了快速回到招聘管道，您宣布今年迄今為止這裡招聘了大量高級員工，您之前也簡要提到了這一點。但我很好奇，您是否看到那裡的市場發生了任何變化，因為我們已經看到過去幾個月的活動出現反彈，我想這對您對年底前招聘的前景大致如此。

I don't know which way you were expecting the shift to occur, but I would just say that we are doing -- we have been doing extremely well in our lateral recruiting efforts. I'm very pleased with the effort that Ray McGuire, our President, has been spearheading in this arena. We've been -- the quality of the people that we're attracting is very high, and we are winning bake-offs where bankers considering X or Y, us against a competitor. We're pleased with our win rate there without -- while paying competitively but not overpaying for the talent that we're attracting.

我不知道您期望這種轉變以何種方式發生，但我只想說，我們在橫向招募工作中做得非常好。我對我們的總裁雷·麥奎爾在這一領域所做的努力感到非常高興。我們吸引的人才素質一直很高，而且在銀行家考慮 X 或 Y 的競爭中，我們戰勝了競爭對手。我們對我們的成功率感到滿意——雖然我們支付的薪水很有競爭力，但並沒有為我們所吸引的人才支付過高的費用。

And I think that's because of a couple structural features around Lazard that are attractive, not only the brand and our reputation for excellent content, but the vibrating energy that a lot of people can feel about our renewed ambition towards our Lazard 2030 goals, the strong culture that we have -- I talk about a commercial and collegial culture that's absolutely key to attracting top talent -- and the fact that we've got not only stability in our leadership and a clear strategy, but also a significant footprint that's been well established and long-standing in both North America and Europe, which is very important in many, many sectors. So we're very pleased with how we're doing in a competitive labor market.

我認為這是因為 Lazard 的一些結構性特徵很有吸引力，不僅是品牌和我們優質內容的聲譽，還有很多人能感受到我們對 Lazard 2030 目標的新抱負所帶來的震撼，我們擁有的強大文化——我指的是商業和同事文化，這是吸引頂尖人才的絕對關鍵——而且我們不僅有穩定的領導層和重要的領導力因此，我們對自己在競爭激烈的勞動市場中的表現感到非常滿意。

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you, Peter.

知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝你，彼得。

Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global Securities.

吉姆·米切爾，Seaport Global Securities。

Hey. Good morning. Maybe, Peter, you -- just getting back to the flow picture in Asset Management, record gross flows, great to eke out some net inflows, but still obviously implying some pretty high gross outflows. You talked a little bit about not seeing the benefits of the shift in the environment. What is holding people back? Why is there still relatively high attrition if the environment for non-US equities is getting better and likely to continue to do so? It just seems like at least attrition should slow.

嘿。早安.彼得，也許你——只是回到資產管理的流量圖，記錄總流量，很好地勉強獲得一些淨流入，但仍然明顯暗示著一些相當高的總流出。您剛才談到沒有看到環境轉變帶來的好處。什麼阻礙了人們？如果非美國股市的環境正在好轉，並且可能繼續好轉，為什麼員工流動率仍然相對較高？看起來至少人員流失應該會減緩。

Yeah. I'd say a couple things, and then maybe Evan can add a bit. I'd say a few things.

是的。我想說幾件事，然後也許 Evan 可以補充一點。我想說幾件事。

First, there always are gross inflows and gross outflows. So it's not surprising that there are outflows. People's investment preferences shift. There's natural churn in the marketplace. That's all to be expected. The point of highlighting the record gross inflows is we've got lots of very attractive products and strategies for which there is significant demand, even before there's the added benefit, if you will, for us of ongoing investor preference shift. So that's point one.

首先，總有總流入和總流出。因此出現資金外流並不奇怪。人們的投資偏好發生轉變。市場中存在著自然的流失。這一切都是意料之中的事。強調創紀錄的總流入量的意義在於，我們擁有許多非常有吸引力的產品和策略，這些產品和策略的需求量很大，甚至在投資者偏好持續轉變給我們帶來額外好處之前也是如此。這是第一點。

Point two is with regard to the timetables. Because our business is disproportionately institutional, these things can often move at a slightly slower pace because of the processes around making institutional investment decisions. This is not a very high-frequency kind of thing, and so it's natural to see some lags involved. But I would highlight that one of the reasons why, and there may have been some skepticism among this group on the call at the beginning of the year when I highlighted that we did view this year as an inflection point and that we had a stretch goal of flat flows for the year, I think there was a ton of skepticism.

第二點是關於時間表。由於我們的業務不成比例地屬於機構性業務，這些事情通常會因為圍繞機構投資決策的流程而進展得稍微慢一些。這不是一種頻率很高的事情，因此出現一些延遲也是很自然的。但我想強調的是，其中一個原因是，在年初的電話會議上，這個群體中可能存在一些懷疑，當我強調我們確實將今年視為一個轉折點，並且我們設定了全年流量持平的延伸目標時，我認為有很多懷疑。

But what we could see from our discussions with institutional clients was a shift occurring. We anticipated ongoing outflows from some of the sub-advised accounts that have been occurring; that is part of the picture. And I'd note the net inflow in the second quarter was, despite a very substantial outflow from a sub-advised account, so there's a shift towards those other products and strategies that I was talking about -- global, quantitative, Japan, et cetera, and a bit away from the US sub-advised -- but that was part of what we anticipated. But we could see, based on the dialog that we were having with clients, a shift in terms of what they were looking to us to provide. And that's exactly what has been occurring.

但從與機構客戶的討論中我們可以看出，轉變正在發生。我們預計部分受監管帳戶的資金將持續流出；這是情況的一部分。我要指出的是，儘管次級顧問帳戶的資金流出量非常大，但第二季度的淨流入量卻有所增加，因此資金轉向了我所談論的其他產品和策略——全球、量化、日本等等，並且稍微遠離了美國次級顧問——但這是我們預期的一部分。但根據我們與客戶的對話，我們可以看到，他們對我們提供的服務的期望發生了轉變。而這正是正在發生的事。

So we set out some ambitious objectives for the sales team, for the business as a whole, and I think we are making very, very solid progress towards doing that. And I appreciate some of the support that we've received from the clients. And I appreciate some of the skepticism earlier in the year because it only motivates performance even more. And we're very pleased with the progress that we're making, and I think it is a significant step in the right direction to see the positive net flows. But it's not altogether shocking to us because we could see it earlier in the year before we shared some of those comments with you.

因此，我們為銷售團隊和整個業務制定了一些雄心勃勃的目標，我認為我們正在朝著這些目標取得非常非常堅實的進展。我感謝客戶給予我們的支持。我很欣賞今年早些時候的一些懷疑態度，因為它只會進一步激勵績效。我們對所取得的進展感到非常高興，我認為看到正的淨流量是朝著正確方向邁出的重要一步。但這對我們來說並不完全是震驚，因為在與你們分享這些評論之前，我們在今年早些時候就看到了這一點。

Evan, do you want to add anything?

艾文，你還有什麼要補充嗎？

Yeah, sure. To summarize, well, I think the only thing I'd add, Jim, is we're seeing broad-based success in our new flows. So it's really broadly defined across channels. So whether it's institutional or intermediary, it's across geographies. So we're seeing tremendous success in Asia-Pacific clientele looking to put new capital to work, as well as in Europe, and as well as across products. So it's not just one single product, as Peter pointed out earlier. So it's across global equities and international products as well, Japan, quant, and even some in the emerging markets.

是的，當然。總而言之，吉姆，我想我唯一要補充的是，我們在新流程中看到了廣泛的成功。所以它實際上是跨渠道廣泛定義的。因此，無論是機構還是中介，它都是跨地域的。因此，我們看到亞太地區客戶、歐洲客戶以及各個產品領域在投入新資本方面都取得了巨大的成功。正如彼得之前指出的那樣，它不僅僅是單一產品。因此，它也涉及全球股票和國際產品、日本、量化，甚至一些新興市場。

So in terms of how the reallocation, the shifting is happening, I mean, as Peter said, institutional trends take some more time. So it's still early. We're starting to see some of the early adopters. But there's definitely more green shoots and early adopters, and we're seeing definitely more interest across that reallocation trade that we've been talking about for a little bit. That started with some of the client discussions and early adopters, as we said, at the end of last year, leading into this year, and that trend continues.

因此，就重新分配和轉變如何發生而言，正如彼得所說，制度趨勢需要更多時間。所以現在還早。我們開始看到一些早期採用者。但肯定有更多的復甦跡象和早期採用者，而且我們看到人們對我們一直在談論的重新分配交易的興趣也越來越濃厚。正如我們所說，這始於去年年底的一些客戶討論和早期採用者，一直持續到今年，而且這種趨勢還在繼續。

So so far, I think the momentum, clearly we're trending better than past years. And calling out sort of the record gross flows for the first half of the year shows the momentum we're having bringing new clients as well as new mandates, bringing new mandates to the product set that we have.

所以到目前為止，我認為我們的勢頭顯然比過去幾年要好。並且，今年上半年創紀錄的總流量表明我們正在帶來新客戶和新授權，為我們現有的產品組合帶來新的授權。

Okay, thanks. That's great color, and I apologize for the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately question. Maybe just a follow-up on AI. Peter, you've been, I think, more vocal than your peers on the potential for AI in your business. Can you kind of talk about what you see as the benefits and what progress you may already be seeing in terms of efficiency?

好的，謝謝。顏色真棒，對於“你最近為我做了什麼”這個問題，我深表歉意。也許只是對人工智慧的後續行動。彼得，我認為，您比您的同行更直言不諱地談論人工智慧在您業務中的潛力。您能否談談您認為的好處以及您在效率方面已經看到的進展？

Yeah. I think the next couple of years are going to be transformational for both of our businesses, the technology. This is -- as I look back, I'll be approaching two years in the seat in October, as I look back to how things are gone, which is generally very, very well -- I'm very pleased with the progress -- one of the surprises has been that we anticipated AI would be advancing, but it's advanced even more rapidly than I had anticipated. That's both with regard to the tools that we have sitting inside of our firewall that we are using to improve what we can do for clients and also improve the experience for our people. But it's also -- I think all of us in our own lives outside of Lazard business, you can just see the remarkable advances that are occurring in many of these tools that are commercially available.

是的。我認為未來幾年對於我們兩家公司的業務和技術來說都將發生變革。回首過去，到十月我將在這個職位上任職兩年，回顧過去的發展，總體來說非常非常好——我對進展非常滿意——其中一個令人驚訝的是，我們預計人工智能將會進步，但它的進步速度甚至比我預期的還要快。這與我們防火牆內的工具有關，我們使用這些工具來改善我們為客戶提供的服務，並改善員工的體驗。但同時，我認為，在我們所有人除了 Lazard 業務之外的生活中，都可以看到許多商業化工具正在取得顯著的進步。

With regard to what we're doing, I think there's sort of basically four different parts to the way that we're thinking about AI. One is that we want to be at the absolute forefront of the technology, so to be at the cutting edge of what's available to our bankers, to our investment professionals on the asset side. So that's kind of Tier 1, and we've spoken about some of the tools that we have available to our bankers. We're going to continue to explore ways of the boundaries ever expanding in terms of what's possible.

就我們正在做的事情而言，我認為我們對人工智慧的思考方式基本上分為四個不同的部分。一是我們希望處於技術的絕對前沿，以便為我們的銀行家、為我們的資產方面的投資專業人士提供最前沿的技術。這就是第 1 層，我們已經討論了我們可以為銀行家提供的一些工具。我們將繼續探索不斷擴大可能性的邊界的方法。

The second is, which I think is really important, the cultural shift. So I actually just welcomed our new analyst, and I talked about being the anti-QWERTY generation, by which I mean if you look at your keyboard, it's Q-W-E-R-T-Y in terms of the letters. The reason they're aligned that way is because early typewriters did not have a QWERTY keyboard. People were typing too quickly, and so the QWERTY keyboard was literally designed to slow people down so the keys would not get stuck, and yet we still have the QWERTY keyboard because of the overwhelming power of inertia.

第二，我認為非常重要的一點是文化轉變。所以實際上我剛剛歡迎了我們的新分析師，並且我談到了反 QWERTY 世代，我的意思是，如果你看一下你的鍵盤，就字母而言它是 Q-W-E-R-T-Y。之所以這樣排列，是因為早期的打字機沒有 QWERTY 鍵盤。人們打字的速度太快，因此 QWERTY 鍵盤的設計實際上就是為了減慢人們的速度，這樣按鍵就不會卡住，然而由於慣性的力量，我們仍然在使用 QWERTY 鍵盤。

And so our incoming analysts and associates are motivated to be bilingual in the kind of old way of doing things and then the new way of doing things so that we can break the QWERTY chain of just continuing to do things the same way, even if it's inefficient, even if it doesn't make any sense. It obviously doesn't make any sense anymore to worry about keys -- the keys getting stuck, except I guess if you spill something on your keyboard.

因此，我們新來的分析師和同事們都會積極掌握兩種語言，既能掌握舊的做事方式，又能掌握新的做事方式，這樣我們就可以打破 QWERTY 鍵盤的束縛，不再繼續用同樣的方式做事，即使這種方式效率低下，也沒有任何意義。顯然，再擔心按鍵——按鍵會卡住——已經沒有任何意義了，除非你在鍵盤上灑了東西。

The third thing is, whether the degree to which we can digitize the knowledge and information that exists inside the walls of Lazard, there's amazing insight that's walking around in people's brains. The more that we can digitize that, the more that the tools will have something to work with.

第三件事是，我們能否將 Lazard 內在的知識和資訊數位化，人們的大腦中蘊藏著令人驚嘆的洞察力。我們越能將其數位化，工具就越能發揮作用。

And then the final thing, which is perhaps surprising or ironic or doesn't quite fit the mold, is we firmly believe that as the technology improves, the importance of human relationships, of deep client connectivity will only expand, not decline. So that involves more convening, more detailed discussions with clients. Those trusted relationships are even more important in an AI-enabled world than ever. So lots of different activities going on here, and I am personally very excited about the opportunity to -- again, I think this will be transformational for both of our businesses and we're very, very much focused on it.

最後一點，也許令人驚訝或諷刺或不太符合常理，那就是我們堅信，隨著科技的進步，人際關係、深度客戶聯繫的重要性只會擴大，而不會下降。因此，這涉及與客戶進行更多、更詳細的討論。在人工智慧的世界中，這些信任關係比以往任何時候都更重要。這裡有很多不同的活動正在進行，我個人對這個機會感到非常興奮——再說一次，我認為這將對我們兩家公司都產生變革性的影響，我們非常非常關注它。

Great. Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝。

James Yaro, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的詹姆斯·亞羅。

Thanks for taking the questions. Good morning. So you mentioned, Peter, that private equity will comprise an increasing portion of M&A. But recently, strategic M&A has outperformed sponsor M&A again this year. Could you just help us think through when the frequently and much-hyped sponsor recovery will take off?

感謝您回答這些問題。早安.彼得，您提到私募股權將在併購中佔據越來越大的份額。但最近，策略併購今年的表現再次超過了發起人併購。您能否幫助我們思考一下，經常被大肆宣傳的贊助商復甦何時會開始？

Sure. Before I do that, let me just again note that we now are -- as I mentioned, I think, in the prepared remarks, over 40% of our advisory revenue is coming from private capital. So even while the M&A piece of that world has been a little subdued, we have so many other touch points with private capital from fundraising to restructuring liability management to our Lazard Capital Solutions team and so on, our fundraising business, obviously, that we are seeing a significant increase in revenue associated with private capital, even while the M&A channel part of that has been a bit subdued. So that's point one.

當然。在此之前，請允許我再次指出，正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們的諮詢收入中有 40% 以上來自私人資本。因此，儘管併購業務略顯低迷，但我們與私人資本還有許多其他接觸點，從融資到重組負債管理，再到我們的 Lazard Capital Solutions 團隊等等，我們的融資業務顯然使我們看到了與私人資本相關的收入的顯著增長，儘管併購管道部分略顯低迷。這是第一點。

Point two is the reason that we think there will be a pickup in M&A activity from this sector is that it's just been several years now in which LPs have had relatively low cash distributions, lower than expected, lower than they expected. So the pressure continues to mount. In the meanwhile, that pressure has helped to create an acceleration of our secondary business within our PCA fundraising business. But nonetheless, it is still a significantly rising kind of pressure environment.

第二點是，我們認為該行業的併購活動將會增加，因為近幾年來，LP 的現金分配相對較低，低於預期。因此壓力持續增加。同時，這種壓力也有助於加速我們 PCA 融資業務中的二級業務。但儘管如此，這仍然是一種明顯上升的壓力環境。

And the reason that there hasn't been more cash distributions from the M&A channel is because of some of those headwinds that I mentioned before, but those are generally resolving. Maybe not quite yet fully with regard to the IPO market, but the regulatory environment, I think, is clarifying. The tariff environment is, we hope, clarifying and we expect that it will. So many of the things that have been kind of impeding M&A activity from private equity are resolving themselves, and then you layer on top of that the pressure from LPs, and that's why we think that the environment will shift.

併購管道沒有更多現金分配的原因是我之前提到的一些不利因素，但這些因素總體上正在解決。就 IPO 市場而言，可能還不完全明朗，但我認為監管環境正在逐漸明朗。我們希望關稅環境能夠明朗化，我們也期待這種情況會發生。許多阻礙私募股權併購活動的因素都在逐漸解決，再加上來自 LP 的壓力，這就是我們認為環境會改變的原因。

Okay, excellent. That's very, very clear. Just two quick Asset Management questions here. Firstly, to clarify a previous point you made, are you now committing to net zero flows? And I guess how should we think about this over an annual basis or some other period?

好的，非常好。這非常非常清楚。這裡只有兩個簡單的資產管理問題。首先，為了澄清您先前提出的觀點，您現在是否致力於實現淨零流量？我想我們應該如何從年度或其他時期的角度來考慮這個問題？

Secondly, could you just speak to the impact of recent inflows on the Asset Management fee rate and the mixed shift away from sub-advised mandates? Should we expect the fee rate to potentially take down from this quarter's level and just how to think about the cadence? I know there's a lot there.

其次，您能否談談近期資金流入對資產管理費率的影響以及從次級顧問授權的混合轉變？我們是否應該預期費率可能會從本季度的水平下降以及如何考慮節奏？我知道那裡有很多東西。

Sure. First, I don't know exactly what you mean by committing to, but we had said that flat flows was a stretch goal at the beginning of the year. I think it's still within reach as a stretch goal for the year as a whole. We will see how it plays out, but at the very least, the flow picture is significantly improved relative to 2024 despite some of the skepticism when we initially put out that stretch goal. So I will just reinforce that we're focused on doing the things under the surface that lead to good outcomes, and you're seeing some of that play through in the results year to date and in the second quarter.

當然。首先，我不太清楚您所說的承諾具體是什麼意思，但我們在年初就說過，平穩流量是一個延伸目標。我認為作為全年的延伸目標，這仍然是可以實現的。我們將拭目以待，但至少，儘管我們最初提出這一延伸目標時存在一些懷疑，但流量狀況相對於 2024 年而言已得到顯著改善。因此，我只想強調，我們專注於做一些能帶來良好結果的幕後工作，而你們會在今年迄今為止和第二季的業績中看到其中的一些成果。

With regard to the fee rate, actually the fee rate increased very slightly quarter over quarter and increased a bit more year over year. The sub-advised accounts, as I mentioned earlier in the year, are a significant share of AUM, a notable share of AUM. They're a pretty small share, under 5% of our asset revenue in total, because they are large and therefore there is a natural negative relationship between the size of the mandate and the fee rate from a single client, for example, that one obtains. So they're relatively low fee rate assets, which is why they're a much larger share of AUM than they are of revenue. So mechanically, just from that alone, if you had a neutral overall flow and there was flow out of the sub-advised and flow into other products, you should expect probably at least stability and maybe even an increase in the average fee rate as a result.

至於費率，實際上費率較上季略有上升，年比則略為上升。正如我今年早些時候提到的那樣，次級諮詢帳戶佔 AUM 的很大一部分，佔 AUM 的相當一部分。它們所佔份額相當小，不到我們資產總收入的 5%，因為它們規模很大，因此授權規模和從單一客戶獲得的費率之間存在自然的負相關關係。因此，它們是收費率相對較低的資產，這就是為什麼它們在 AUM 中所佔的份額遠大於在收入中所佔的份額。因此，從機械角度來看，僅從這一點來看，如果您有一個中性的整體流量，並且有流出子建議並流入其他產品，那麼您應該至少預期穩定，甚至可能因此提高平均費率。

Excellent. Very clear. Just a quick last one on the non-comp -- good non-comp discipline in the quarter. Could you just speak to the non-comp growth trajectory from here?

出色的。非常清楚。最後再簡單說一下非競爭性方面——本季的非競爭性紀律很好。您能否談談目前的非同產業成長軌跡？

Yeah. I'll take that one, James. So I had previously said that I expected mid-single-digit increase in non-comp on a dollar basis for the year. Since then, we've seen some upward pressure, a couple points from FX rates, and then we've also seen business development trending up as well as continued investments in technology. So now, I'd say probably expect more like high single digit for the year.

是的。我要這個，詹姆斯。因此，我之前曾說過，我預計今年非競爭性收入將以美元計算出現中個位數成長。自那時起，我們看到了一些上行壓力，外匯匯率上漲了幾個點，然後我們也看到業務發展呈上升趨勢以及對技術的持續投資。所以現在，我想說，今年的預期可能會是更高的個位數。

That's very clear. Thank you so much.

這非常清楚。太感謝了。

Brendan O'Brien, Wolfe Research.

布倫丹·奧布萊恩（Brendan O'Brien），沃爾夫研究公司。

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. I guess to start, the commentary on the mix of the advisory line was helpful and insightful, so thank you for providing that. But I just wanted to get a sense as to how that mix compares today relative to last year. And within those non-M&A businesses, how has the contribution from those different line items evolved?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。我想首先，關於諮詢線路組合的評論很有幫助並且很有見地，所以感謝您提供這些評論。但我只是想了解今天的組合與去年相比如何。在這些非併購業務中，不同專案的貢獻是如何演變的？

So I would say, relative to last year, we have a slightly higher non-M&A share. The mix is, again, roughly 60-40. There's a couple percentage point move, not a massive, but a couple percentage point move relative to last year in that mix, with the non-M&A piece ticking up a bit and the M&A piece being a slightly smaller share of the total. Within the non-M&A piece, we've seen a significant increase in restructuring and liability management, especially liability management, which is almost the entirety of it at this point.

所以我想說，相對於去年，我們的非併購份額略高一些。再一次，混合比例大約是 60-40。與去年相比，這一組合有幾個百分點的變動，雖然幅度不大，但確實有幾個百分點的變動，其中非併購部分略有上升，而併購部分在總額中所佔比例略有下降。在非併購部分，我們看到重組和負債管理顯著增加，尤其是負債管理，目前這幾乎佔據了全部份額。

We also, as I mentioned, had a record first half in our PCA business, which is our fundraising business, disproportionately in the secondary piece of that. The secondary piece of that will be roughly 60 or, let's call it, two-thirds of the overall business, roughly speaking, in that category. We also are seeing significant growth in our capital solutions group, which is great to see. And I could keep going.

正如我所提到的，我們的 PCA 業務（即我們的籌款業務）上半年也創下了紀錄，其中的次要部分佔比特別大。其中，次要部分約佔該類別整體業務的 60%，或大致佔三分之二。我們的資本解決方案集團也取得了顯著的成長，這是令人高興的。我可以繼續下去。

There's a whole bunch of different pieces to this, but backing up, we have been building out more products and services for our clients to diversify the business. So at this point, we are increasingly well diversified geographically, and we are well diversified across the products that we're offering to our clients. And that's just in advisory, obviously. We also have the diversification that comes from having the asset business also.

這其中涉及許多不同的部分，但總而言之，我們一直在為客戶打造更多的產品和服務，以實現業務多元化。因此，目前，我們的地域多元化程度越來越高，我們提供給客戶的產品也越來越多元化。顯然，這只是建議而已。我們也擁有資產業務帶來的多元化。

That's helpful color. And just drilling down on the restructuring part of the business, in your comments around the M&A outlook, you indicated that you were looking at the M&A outlook. You indicated that conditions are improving, corporate balance sheets are strong, but obviously at the same time, it sounds like your liability management practice continues to see strong momentum. Just trying to square those two, like the push-pull between those two businesses and how you expect restructuring and liability management activity to project throughout the rest of this year and into next.

這是很有幫助的顏色。深入探討業務重組部分，在您對併購前景的評論中，您表示您正在關注併購前景。您表示情況正在改善，企業資產負債表強勁，但顯然與此同時，您的負債管理實踐聽起來繼續保持強勁勢頭。只是試圖將這兩者協調起來，例如這兩個業務之間的推拉，以及您預計重組和負債管理活動將如何在今年剩餘時間和明年進行。

What I'd say is, even within a generally constructive environment, there always are companies that find themselves in trouble or sectors that find themselves more challenged. So it's not surprising that especially as we've moved towards more liability management, and that is the vast bulk of the activity at this point, that these things can coexist.

我想說的是，即使在整體建設性的環境中，也總是會有一些公司陷入困境，或是某些產業面臨更大的挑戰。因此，尤其當我們轉向更多的責任管理時，這些事情能夠共存，這並不奇怪，而且這是目前活動的絕大部分。

A couple of noteworthy features. We've seen -- one thing that we've done in this business, not only did we have a leadership transition a couple of years ago, but we increasingly diversified this business, not only into liability management and away from just pure restructuring, but also to have a balance between creditors and debtors. I would say -- I'm going to maybe get this not exactly right, but if you go back 5 or 10 years, the business was probably 90% or more debtor-based. And today, it's more like 60-40 debtor-creditor, in that range.

有幾個值得注意的特點。我們已經看到——我們在這個業務中所做的一件事是，我們不僅在幾年前進行了領導層的變動，而且我們日益使這個業務多樣化，不僅進入負債管理，不再只是純粹的重組，而且還在債權人和債務人之間取得平衡。我想說的是——我可能理解得不完全正確，但如果你回顧 5 年或 10 年前，你會發現這項業務可能有 90% 或更多是基於債務的。如今，債務人和債權人的比例更像是 60% 比 40%。

I've been mentioning 60-40 a lot. There are lots of different ways in which we're diversifying the business. Almost all of the times that I mention 60-40, that would be M&A-non-M&A, public company-private company, not exactly, but sort of US-Europe, now debtor-creditor, as I mentioned. All of those have potential to move more towards 50-50 with lots of growth, even in the 60% components.

我多次提到 60-40。我們採用多種不同方式來實現業務多元化。我幾乎每次提到 60-40，都是指併購與非併購、上市公司與私人公司，雖然不完全是，但有點像美國與歐洲，現在是債務人與債權人，正如我所提到的。所有這些都有潛力朝著 50-50 的方向發展，並且有很大的成長空間，即使在 60% 的組成部分中也是如此。

So when I say move towards 50-50, that means a larger share of a larger pie, which is why we're really excited over the next few years to see lots of opportunity ahead for growth. And that's why we're out in the marketplace attracting new talent and high-quality talent because we see so much opportunity.

因此，當我說要實現 50-50 時，這意味著要從更大的蛋糕中分得更大的份額，這就是為什麼我們對未來幾年將有大量的成長機會感到非常興奮。這就是為什麼我們在市場上吸引新的人才和高素質人才，因為我們看到瞭如此多的機會。

Great color. Thank you for taking my questions.

顏色很棒。感謝您回答我的問題。

This now concludes Lazard's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

至此，Lazard 2025 年第二季財報電話會議結束。