Lazard Inc (LAZ) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Lazard's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I will turn the call over to Alexandra Deignan, Lazard's Head of Investor Relations, Treasury and Corporate Sustainability. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加 Lazard 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。此通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）此時，我會將電話轉給 Lazard 投資人關係、財務與企業永續發展主管 Alexandra Deignan。請繼續。

Thank you, Todd. Good morning, and welcome to Lazard's earnings call for the fourth quarter and full year 2023. I'm Alexandra Deignan, Head of Investor Relations, Treasury and Corporate Sustainability. In addition to today's audio comments, we posted our earnings release on our website. A replay of this call will also be available on our website later today.

謝謝你，托德。早安，歡迎參加 Lazard 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。我是投資者關係、財務和企業永續發展主管 Alexandra Deignan。除了今天的音訊評論外，我們還在網站上發布了收益報告。今天晚些時候，我們的網站上還將提供此次電話會議的重播。

Before we begin, let me remind you that we may make forward-looking statements about our business and performance. There are important factors that could cause our actual results, level of activity, performance, achievements or other events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, those factors discussed in the company's SEC filings, which you can access on our website. Lazard assumes no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of these forward-looking statements and assumes no duty to update these forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，請允許我提醒您，我們可能會對我們的業務和業績做出前瞻性陳述。有一些重要因素可能導致我們的實際結果、活動水平、績效、成就或其他事件與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異，包括但不限於公司 SEC 討論的那些因素文件，您可以在我們的網站上訪問。拉札德對這些前瞻性陳述的準確性或完整性不承擔任何責任，也不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's discussion also include certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are meaningful when evaluating the company's performance. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable GAAP measures is provided in our earnings release and investor presentation.

今天的討論還包括我們認為在評估公司績效時有意義的某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益發布和投資者介紹中提供了這些非公認會計原則財務指標與可比較公認會計原則指標的調節表。

Hosting our call today are Peter Orszag, Lazard's Chief Executive Officer; and Mary Ann Betsch, Lazard's Chief Financial Officer. Peter will begin with some brief remarks before turning the call over to Mary Ann to provide an overview of our financial results. Peter will then provide his perspective on current market conditions and the outlook for our business.

今天主持我們電話會議的是 Lazard 執行長 Peter Orszag；以及 Lazard 財務長 Mary Ann Betsch。彼得將首先進行一些簡短的評論，然後將電話轉給瑪麗安，概述我們的財務表現。然後，彼得將提供他對當前市場狀況和我們業務前景的看法。

After our prepared remarks, Peter and Mary Ann will be joined by Evan Russo, Chief Executive Officer of Asset Management as they open the call for questions. I'll now turn the call over to Peter.

在我們準備好的演講之後，資產管理公司執行長 Evan Russo 將與彼得·安 (Peter Ann) 和瑪麗安 (Mary Ann) 一起開始提問。我現在將把電話轉給彼得。

Thank you, Ale, and good morning, everyone. Our fourth quarter results represent a solid first step as we execute our long-term growth plans. Activity during the fourth quarter also reinforces our confidence that the M&A cycle has turned a corner, as we indicated on last quarter's call. We remain focused on providing sophisticated and differentiated advice and investment solutions for our clients, and we are well positioned for a stronger year ahead.

謝謝你，艾爾，大家早安。我們第四季的業績代表了我們執行長期成長計畫的堅實的第一步。正如我們在上季度的電話會議中所指出的那樣，第四季度的活動也增強了我們對併購週期已經拐點的信心。我們仍然專注於為客戶提供複雜且差異化的建議和投資解決方案，並且我們已準備好迎接更強勁的一年。

In addition to existing mandates, the quantity and quality of our dialogues suggest a productive 2024. At the same time, there is a high degree of geopolitical uncertainty that could affect business activity. I'll share more on our outlook shortly. But before I turn to Mary Ann to discuss our fourth quarter and full year results, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome to the new members of our Board of Directors announced earlier this week. Dan Schulman, who most recently served as CEO of PayPal; and Steve Howe, former U.S. Chairman and Managing Partner of the Americas for Ernst & Young. Dan and Steve bring broad experience as executives and directors of numerous public companies. We are excited for their leadership as we refresh and reinforce the strength of our Board and pursue our ambitions for Lazard.

除了現有的任務外，我們對話的數量和品質表明 2024 年將是富有成效的。同時，地緣政治的高度不確定性可能會影響商業活動。我很快就會分享更多關於我們的展望。但在我與瑪麗安討論我們的第四季和全年業績之前，我想對本週稍早宣布的董事會新成員表示熱烈歡迎。 Dan Schulman，最近擔任 PayPal 執行長；史蒂夫·豪（Steve Howe），安永會計師事務所前美國董事長兼美洲執行合夥人。丹和史蒂夫擁有在許多上市公司擔任高階主管和董事的豐富經驗。我們對他們的領導感到興奮，因為我們更新並加強了董事會的實力，並追求 Lazard 的雄心壯志。

Let me turn the call over to Mary Ann.

讓我把電話轉給瑪麗安。

Thanks, Peter. Today, we reported firm-wide operating revenue of $761 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, up 13% from the fourth quarter of 2022. Operating revenue for the full year 2023 was $2.4 billion compared to $2.8 billion for the full year 2022. Global M&A announcements in 2023 fell to their [lowest] level in a decade and completions were down 32% year-over-year. Our business was affected by the slowdown. The Financial Advisory operating revenue totaling $1.4 billion for the full year 2023 compared to $1.7 billion for the prior year. Fourth quarter results, however, reflects the continued positive trend of more constructive client conversations, resulting in an increased number of announced deals.

謝謝，彼得。今天，我們報告2023 年第四季全公司營業收入為7.61 億美元，比2022 年第四季成長13%。2023 年全年營業收入為24 億美元，而2022 年全年營業收入為28 億美元. 2023 年的併購公告數量降至十年來的最低水平，完成數量同比下降 32%。我們的業務受到經濟放緩的影響。 2023 年全年財務諮詢營業收入總計 14 億美元，而前一年為 17 億美元。然而，第四季度的業績反映了更具建設性的客戶對話的持續積極趨勢，導致宣布的交易數量增加。

We reported Financial Advisory operating revenue of $477 million for the fourth quarter, up 18% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Examples illustrating this trend includes several large strategic transactions announced during the fourth quarter and in January, including Iliad's proposed merger with Vodafone, Western Digital Corporation's separation of HDD and Flash businesses, Energy Exemplar's acquisition by Blackstone and Vista Equity Partners, AbbVie's acquisition of ImmunoGen, and Sanofi's acquisition of Inhibrx. Our Advisory business in Europe had a particularly strong quarter and year. Our U.K. office had its highest quarterly revenue ever in the fourth quarter, and in France, Lazard was ranked #1 in market share for 2023.

我們報告第四季度財務諮詢營業收入為4.77 億美元，比2022 年第四季度增長18%。說明這一趨勢的例子包括第四季度和1 月份宣布的幾項大型戰略交易，包括Iliad 擬議與沃達豐的合併，西部數據公司分離硬碟和快閃記憶體業務、Energy Exemplar被Blackstone和Vista Equity Partners收購、艾伯維收購ImmunoGen以及賽諾菲收購Inhibrx。我們在歐洲的顧問業務在季度和年度表現尤其強勁。我們的英國辦事處第四季的季度收入創歷史新高，而在法國，Lazard 的 2023 年市佔率排名第一。

Our co-heads of Europe's Financial Advisory businesses are focused on integration and collaboration to capture cross-border opportunities and are demonstrating strong results. Our Private Capital Advisory Group has continued to deliver meaningful growth in client mandates and fee income, especially in our secondaries business as investors in private equity look for sources of liquidity amidst volatile M&A and public markets. In addition, we see increasing client demand in our global restructuring and liability management group. Client activity picked up significantly during the second half of 2023 in both the U.S. and Europe, and we see continued strong demand for our services, in part because we expect interest rates to remain higher for longer. We also continue to invest in our leading Sovereign Advisory business, and our team is well positioned to serve clients as they navigate this prolonged higher rate environment.

我們歐洲財務諮詢業務的聯席主管專注於整合和協作，以抓住跨境機會，並展示了強勁的成果。我們的私人資本諮詢小組繼續在客戶委託和費用收入方面實現有意義的成長，特別是在我們的二級業務中，因為私募股權投資者在波動的併購和公開市場中尋找流動性來源。此外，我們看到客戶對我們的全球重組和負債管理團隊的需求不斷增加。 2023 年下半年，美國和歐洲的客戶活動顯著增加，我們看到對我們服務的需求持續強勁，部分原因是我們預計利率將在更長時間內保持在較高水準。我們也繼續投資於我們領先的主權諮詢業務，我們的團隊處於有利地位，可以在客戶應對長期高利率環境時為他們提供服務。

Finally, heightened interest from our clients in the geopolitical landscape remains and demand for our geopolitical advisory group services continues to increase as a result. Turning to Asset Management. Fourth quarter operating revenue was $274 million, up 6% compared to the fourth quarter 1 year ago and up 4% from the prior quarter. Management fees for the fourth quarter were up 5% compared to the fourth quarter 1 year ago and down 1% from the prior quarter. For the full year 2023, management fees increased 1% compared to the full year 2022. Asset Management operating revenue was $1.1 billion for the full year, 3% lower than the prior year reflecting [lower] incentive fees compared to 2022.

最後，我們的客戶對地緣政治格局的興趣依然濃厚，因此對我們地緣政治諮詢團隊服務的需求持續增加。轉向資產管理。第四季營業收入為2.74億美元，比一年前第四季成長6%，比上一季成長4%。第四季的管理費較一年前第四季上漲 5%，較上一季下降 1%。 2023 年全年，管理費較 2022 年全年增長 1%。資產管理全年營業收入為 11 億美元，比上年下降 3%，反映出與 2022 年相比激勵費用[較低]。

As of December 31, we reported AUM of $247 billion, 8% higher than September 30, 2023, and 14% higher than December 31, 2022. The sequential increase from September 30 was due to market appreciation of $16.9 billion and foreign exchange appreciation of $5 billion, offset by net outflows of $3.6 billion. Average AUM for the fourth quarter was $234 billion, an increase of 11% from the fourth quarter of 2022 and 1% lower on a sequential basis. Average AUM for the full year was $233 billion, 2% higher than 2022. During 2023, we saw positive net inflows across our global and European fundamental equity strategies, our quantitative platform and our U.S. and European fixed income strategies. In addition, our European and Asia Pacific distribution teams won significant new business, including mandates from a public pension scheme in France, UOB Asset Management in Asia, and Mid Wynd Investment Trust in the U.K.

截至12 月31 日，我們的資產管理規模為2,470 億美元，比2023 年9 月30 日增長8%，比2022 年12 月31 日增長14%。自9 月30 日起的環比增長是由於市場升值169 億美元和外匯升值 169 億美元。50 億美元，被 36 億美元的淨流出所抵銷。第四季平均資產管理規模為 2,340 億美元，較 2022 年第四季成長 11%，季減 1%。全年平均資產管理規模為 2,330 億美元，比 2022 年增長 2%。2023 年，我們的全球和歐洲基本股票策略、量化平台以及美國和歐洲固定收益策略出現了正淨流入。此外，我們的歐洲和亞太分銷團隊贏得了重要的新業務，包括法國公共退休金計劃、亞洲大華資產管理公司和英國 Mid Wynd Investment Trust 的授權。

Now turning to expenses. Our adjusted compensation expense was $516 million for the fourth quarter and $1.7 billion for the full year 2023. Our adjusted compensation ratio was 69.8% for the full year 2023 compared to 59.8% the year prior. Our awarded compensation ratio for 2023 was in the low 70s. Going forward, we will no longer disclose this measure as we understand it was not considered useful by investors. Importantly, we remain disciplined in setting compensation each year, balancing market dynamics, business performance and continued investment in talent. Our adjusted noncompensation expense was $148 million in the fourth quarter, 4% higher than the fourth quarter last year. Our adjusted noncompensation expense was $572 million for the full year 2023, 10% higher than the prior year.

現在轉向開支。第四季調整後薪資支出為 5.16 億美元，2023 年全年調整後薪資支出為 17 億美元。2023 年全年調整後薪酬比率為 69.8%，而前一年為 59.8%。我們 2023 年的薪酬比例在 70 左右。展望未來，我們將不再披露這項措施，因為我們知道投資者認為它沒有用。重要的是，我們每年都會嚴格製定薪酬，平衡市場動態、業務績效和對人才的持續投資。第四季調整後的非薪資費用為 1.48 億美元，比去年第四季成長 4%。 2023 年全年調整後的非薪資費用為 5.72 億美元，比前一年增加 10%。

The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by increased occupancy and professional services expenses, including onetime costs such as our C Corp conversion. Travel and entertainment expenses were also a factor reflecting increased client and business development activity. We are on track to reach our target head count reduction, which was previously announced last April and is due to be completed by the first quarter of this year. At the same time, we continue to invest in talent in key areas. Cost savings related to our head count reduction will lag actual departure dates and as revenues normalize, we aim to return to our target expense ratios over time.

年比成長主要是由於入住率和專業服務費用的增加，包括我們的 C 公司轉換等一次性成本。差旅和娛樂費用也是反映客戶和業務開發活動增加的因素。我們預計將實現去年四月宣布的裁員目標，預計今年第一季完成。同時，我們持續對重點領域的人才進行投資。與我們的人員減少相關的成本節省將落後於實際出發日期，隨著收入正常化，我們的目標是隨著時間的推移恢復到我們的目標費用率。

Shifting to taxes. Our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter as adjusted was 16% compared to 26.3% for the fourth quarter of 2022. Our effective tax rate for the full year 2023 was 14.5% compared to 25.7% for the full year 2022. Turning to capital allocation. In the fourth quarter of 2023, we returned $44 million to shareholders, primarily through our quarterly dividend. For the full year 2023, we returned $330 million to shareholders including $173 million in dividends, $102 million in share repurchases and $55 million in satisfaction of employee tax obligations. Additionally, yesterday, we declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share.

轉向稅收。調整後第四季的有效稅率為 16%，而 2022 年第四季為 26.3%。2023 年全年的有效稅率為 14.5%，2022 年全年的有效稅率為 25.7%。轉向資本配置。 2023 年第四季度，我們主要透過季度股利向股東返還 4,400 萬美元。 2023 年全年，我們向股東返還 3.3 億美元，其中包括 1.73 億美元的股息、1.02 億美元的股票回購以及 5,500 萬美元的員工納稅義務。此外，昨天我們宣布派發每股 0.50 美元的季度股息。

I'll now turn the call back to Peter.

我現在將電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Mary Ann. On our last call, I said that the third quarter was a turning point both for Lazard and for the M&A market. Our fourth quarter results are consistent with that observation as we increasingly build momentum and execute against our longer-term ambitions for Lazard. Looking at Financial Advisory, interplay between headwinds and tailwinds continues to create favorable conditions for M&A activity. Tailwinds remain strong as business leaders look for opportunities to capture technological innovation, address global supply chain shifts and drive revolutions in life sciences and the energy sector. At the same time, the headwinds are increasingly subdued.

謝謝你，瑪麗安。在我們上次的電話會議上，我說第三季對拉札德和併購市場來說都是一個轉捩點。我們第四季度的業績與這一觀察結果一致，因為我們越來越多地建立勢頭並執行我們對拉扎德的長期目標。從財務諮詢來看，逆風和順風之間的相互作用持續為併購活動創造有利條件。隨著企業領導者尋找機會捕捉技術創新、應對全球供應鏈轉變並推動生命科學和能源領域的革命，順風仍然強勁。同時，不利因素也日益減弱。

While it is increasingly clear that interest rates may be higher for longer, the debate has shifted away from if rates will go up to when they will go down. And now that higher rates have been in place for a longer period of time, we are seeing buyers and sellers better align on valuations. In addition, financing markets are opening up, private equity is becoming active again and more Boards and C-suites are willing to pursue transactions in the wake of some favorable antitrust decisions by court.

儘管越來越明顯的是，利率可能會在更長時間內保持較高水平，但爭論已經從利率是否會上升轉向何時會下降。現在，更高的利率已經持續了更長的時間，我們看到買家和賣家在估值上更加一致。此外，融資市場正在開放，私募股權再次變得活躍，在法院做出一些有利的反壟斷裁決後，更多的董事會和最高管理層願意進行交易。

As a result, we are engaged in an expanded number of client conversations. We see stronger M&A activity across the U.S. and Europe and in a broad array of sectors, including technology, industrials, financial institutions, health care and energy, all of which are sectors where Lazard has deeply embedded networks and teams. We also see significant further revenue opportunities beyond M&A in our capital solutions, restructuring and liability management businesses. As leaders in markets expect higher interest rates for longer and ways of debt maturities approach, clients increasingly explore solutions across the various options our teams provide. To support this growth and further build our leadership in this space, over the past 2 months, we announced 3 new managing directors in our restructuring group, 2 in New York and 1 in London.

因此，我們參與了更多的客戶對話。我們看到美國和歐洲以及眾多產業的併購活動更加強勁，包括科技、工業、金融機構、醫療保健和能源，所有這些產業都是拉札德深深嵌入的網路和團隊。我們也看到，除了併購之外，我們的資本解決方案、重組和負債管理業務還存在著巨大的進一步收入機會。由於市場領導者預計利率將持續較長時間，且債務到期日趨近，因此客戶越來越多地探索我們團隊提供的各種解決方案。為了支持這一成長並進一步建立我們在這一領域的領導地位，在過去 2 個月裡，我們宣布了重組團隊的 3 名新董事總經理，其中 2 名在紐約，1 名在倫敦。

In Asset Management, we began 2024 with $247 billion in assets under management, approximately 14% higher than at the start of 2023. Positive market sentiment and a widening dispersion of returns across asset classes is leading to increased activity and interest across our range of actively managed investment products. In addition, Evan's strategic plan is focused on stabilizing and optimizing the business, which has helped produce improved results throughout the year. Our investment teams continue to perform well in this market environment. And we've seen significant outperformance across our emerging markets, global quant and select local strategies. We're also continuing to add talent to the business with senior hires to our small cap equity platform in the fourth quarter and a recently announced new head of our Japanese business.

在資產管理方面，2024 年開始，我們管理的資產規模為2,470 億美元，比2023 年初增長約14%。積極的市場情緒和不同資產類別的回報分散性不斷擴大，導致我們積極投資的活動和興趣增加。管理投資產品。此外，埃文的策略計劃專注於穩定和優化業務，這有助於全年業績的改善。我們的投資團隊在這種市場環境下持續表現良好。我們已經看到我們的新興市場、全球量化和精選本地策略的表現顯著出色。我們也在第四季度繼續為我們的小盤股權平台招募高級人才，並在最近宣布了日本業務的新負責人。

During the fourth quarter, we provided specific goals for our long-term plan to double revenue by 2030 and deliver an average annual total shareholder return of 10% to 15% through 2030. In Financial Advisory, we are focused on high productivity growth. We are targeting an increase in average revenue per MD to $8.5 million by 2025 and $10 million by 2028, and a net addition of 10 MDs each year through internal promotions and lateral hires. In addition to 4 new MDs recently hired, which underscores our ability to attract world-class professionals to Lazard, in January, we also promoted 10 new managing directors from within the firm, reflecting our long-standing strength in developing internal talent.

在第四季度，我們為長期計畫制定了具體目標，即到2030 年將收入翻一番，並在2030 年實現年均股東總回報率為10% 至15%。在財務諮詢方面，我們專注於生產率的高成長。我們的目標是到 2025 年將每位常務董事的平均收入增加到 850 萬美元，到 2028 年將增加到 1000 萬美元，並透過內部晉升和橫向聘用每年淨增加 10 名常務董事。除了最近聘用的4 名新董事總經理（這突顯了我們吸引世界級專業人士加入Lazard 的能力）之外，1 月份，我們還從公司內部提拔了10 名新董事總經理，體現了我們長期以來在培養內部人才方面的實力。

In Asset Management, we are focused on strengthening our traditional business while adding capabilities in less liquid products, primarily through inorganic opportunities. We are targeting approximately 30% of asset management revenue from alternatives or Private Markets and Wealth Management by 2030. We will evaluate and pursue acquisitions in a programmatic disciplined manner with a focus on creating value for our shareholders.

在資產管理方面，我們專注於加強我們的傳統業務，同時主要透過無機機會增加流動性較低的產品的能力。我們的目標是到 2030 年，約 30% 的資產管理收入來自另類投資或私募市場和財富管理。我們將以有計劃的、嚴格的方式評估和尋求收購，重點是為股東創造價值。

Let me now turn to the outlook for the year ahead. As we've shared previously, we expect 2024 to be better than 2023. We see continued signs of a healthy and strong economy and the tailwinds for M&A activity strengthening while headwinds abate. We also could experience an unusual environment in 2024 with increased M&A occurring alongside greater restructuring activity as rates remain high and debt maturities approach. We do note, however, that alongside these macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical uncertainty is increasingly top of mind for decision makers. I remain very focused on building a commercial and collegial culture to execute our ambitions pursuing a strategic path to achieving our Lazard 2030 goals and creating value for our shareholders.

現在讓我談談對未來一年的展望。正如我們之前所分享的，我們預計 2024 年將好於 2023 年。我們看到經濟健康強勁的持續跡象，以及併購活動的順風增強，而逆風減弱。我們也可能在 2024 年經歷一個不尋常的環境，隨著利率居高不下且債務到期日臨近，併購活動將會增加，重組活動也會增加。然而，我們確實注意到，除了這些宏觀經濟狀況之外，地緣政治不確定性也日益成為決策者最關心的問題。我仍然非常專注於建立商業和學院文化，以實現我們的雄心壯志，追求實現 Lazard 2030 目標並為股東創造價值的策略路徑。

To that end, we are pleased to have completed our conversion to a C-Corporation on January 1. As we embark on the year ahead and our next chapter, our complementary businesses, premier brands, established global leadership and extraordinary talent provide a strong foundation. Now let's open the call to questions.

為此，我們很高興於1 月1 日完成了向C 型企業的轉型。當我們開啟新的一年和下一個篇章時，我們互補的業務、一流的品牌、成熟的全球領導力和卓越的人才為我們奠定了堅實的基礎。現在讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Ryan Kenny with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們將接受摩根士丹利瑞安·肯尼 (Ryan Kenny) 提出的第一個問題。

I have a big picture question for Peter on the Lazard 2030 strategy. And Slide 10 is really helpful in understanding the building blocks there. One of the drivers listed, and you've talked about this before is increasing relevance. Can you help walk us through what specific changes culturally you're making to make sure that Lazard is top of mind for CEOs and Boards?

我有一個關於 Lazard 2030 策略的大局問題要問 Peter。幻燈片 10 對於理解其中的建置模組確實很有幫助。所列出的驅動因素之一（您之前也談過）是增加相關性。您能否幫助我們了解您正在做出哪些具體的文化變革，以確保 Lazard 成為執行長和董事會的首要考量？

Sure. And relevance is important, not just kind of for its own sake, but because it then reinforces the brand and converts into revenue. So I want to make that clear. But there are lots of things that we are doing from increased presence externally. So getting our top bankers and thinkers out on -- in the media at conferences and so on to project the force of Lazard's insights and make it even more apparent to the world, the differentiated talent and insight that we have. We are doing a lot more convening events that bring together top CEOs and thought leaders into a place that -- into select places so that there are conversations that can occur that, again, are more than what one can get out of the newspapers today.

當然。相關性很重要，不僅是因為本身，還因為它可以強化品牌並轉化為收入。所以我想澄清這一點。但我們透過增加外部影響力正在做很多事情。因此，讓我們的頂級銀行家和思想家在會議等媒體上展示拉扎德洞察力的力量，讓世界更清楚地看到我們擁有的差異化人才和洞察力。我們正在舉辦更多的召集活動，將頂級執行長和思想領袖聚集到一個地方，在選定的地方，這樣就可以進行對話，而這些對話又超出了人們今天可以從報紙上獲得的內容。

And then we're building out new capabilities that increase our relevance, a great example of that is the geopolitical team. Clearly, as I said before, you can't make a business decision today without geopolitical considerations being taken into account, and we have a top-notch team that is helping our clients evaluate those questions.

然後我們正在建立新的能力來提高我們的相關性，而地緣政治團隊就是一個很好的例子。顯然，正如我之前所說，如果不考慮地緣政治因素，今天就無法做出業務決策，而我們擁有一支一流的團隊正在幫助我們的客戶評估這些問題。

Okay. Great. And as I just think through wallet share, you're clearly focused on increasing productivity of MDs over time. You've also taken some actions to manage headcount. So when we put those 2 together, is the goal to keep your wallet share but get more efficient or to grow wallet share?

好的。偉大的。正如我剛剛透過錢包份額所思考的那樣，您顯然專注於隨著時間的推移提高 MD 的生產力。您也採取了一些措施來管理員工人數。那麼，當我們將這兩者放在一起時，目標是保持您的錢包份額但提高效率還是增加錢包份額？

Our goal is to increase our wallet share. We believe that's what will occur as we execute our Lazard 2030 goals, but to do so in a way that is not just buying wallet share, but doing so in a high productivity manner. And the reason that I just want to pause on is really important, which is as we raise our productivity for MD, the operating leverage that we get especially on the non-MD comp ratio is what allows us to then invest in new talent. So it's a self-reinforcing cycle that as we raise productivity, we free up room in our comp ratio to make new investments in managing directors. That leads to additional wallet share gains, additional relevance as we just discussed but doing so in a manner that still fits within our comp and margin targets.

我們的目標是增加我們的錢包份額。我們相信，這就是我們執行 Lazard 2030 目標時將會發生的事情，但這樣做的方式不僅僅是購買錢包份額，而是以高生產率的方式這樣做。我想暫停的原因非常重要，那就是當我們提高總經理的生產力時，我們獲得的營運槓桿（尤其是非總經理薪酬比率）使我們能夠投資於新人才。因此，這是一個自我強化的循環，當我們提高生產力時，我們會釋放出補償比率的空間，以便對董事總經理進行新的投資。正如我們剛才討論的那樣，這會帶來額外的錢包份額收益和額外的相關性，但這樣做的方式仍然符合我們的補償和利潤目標。

Our next question will come from Devin Ryan with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自 JMP 證券的 Devin Ryan。

First question just on those head count reductions and the projected reduction of 10% in the run rate cost base by, I guess, the end of 2023. Can you guys just give us an update on where we are on all those savings? How much of that was reinvested or will be reinvested back in the business just because there's a lot of moving parts on expenses and then also appreciate that 2024 might be a little bit of a transition year in kind of a revenue recovery. So just trying to think through some of the moving pieces and kind of what that could mean for maybe non-comp expenses in the absolute and maybe comp ratios on a relative basis.

第一個問題是關於人員數量減少以及預計到 2023 年底運行成本基礎將減少 10%。你們能給我們介紹一下我們在所有這些節省方面的最新情況嗎？其中有多少被再投資或將被再投資回業務，只是因為費用方面有很多變動，而且我們也意識到 2024 年可能是收入復甦的過渡年。因此，只是想思考一些變化的部分，以及這對於絕對的非補償費用和相對的補償比率可能意味著什麼。

Sure. So I'll start and then maybe Mary Ann coming in. Look, let's cut through all the complexity because I think this is pretty simple. We are committed to our tradition, our long-term margin targets, both on comp and on non-comp. So on comp you should, again, just keep in mind that our goal is to return to those traditional targets of being in the mid- to high 50s on the comp ratio as revenue normalizes. So all the other pieces are contributors to that. We are on target for the head count reduction that we articulated early last year, which is a 10% reduction from the first quarter of 2023 to the end of the first quarter of 2024. That is tracking. But again, it's not done for the sake of doing it, but rather to help us on our transition back to those traditional margin targets. And that's what I think you should be tracking.

當然。所以我會開始，然後瑪麗安可能會進來。聽著，讓我們消除所有的複雜性，因為我認為這非常簡單。我們致力於我們的傳統和我們的長期利潤目標，無論是在比較還是非比較方面。因此，在薪酬方面，您應該再次記住，我們的目標是隨著收入正常化，回到 50 左右的傳統目標。所以所有其他部分都是對此的貢獻者。我們正在實現去年年初提出的裁員目標，即從 2023 年第一季到 2024 年第一季末減少 10%。這是追蹤。但同樣，這並不是為了做而做，而是為了幫助我們過渡到傳統的利潤目標。這就是我認為你應該追蹤的。

You're right also to point out that 2024 might be a transition year. It depends, obviously, on how strong the revenue environment is, but we are committed to getting back to those traditional targets over time. I don't know, Mary Ann, if you want to add.

您指出 2024 年可能是過渡年，這一點也是正確的。顯然，這取決於收入環境的強勁程度，但我們致力於隨著時間的推移恢復這些傳統目標。我不知道，瑪麗安，你是否想補充。

Yes. So the one thing, Devin, you mentioned non-comp as well. So I would just say that we've done a lot of work. We are continuing to look constantly for cost savings opportunities, we're sort of turning over every stone. And so if you look sort of at what to expect for 2024 versus 2023, we expect to continue to see inflationary pressure and increased travel, for example, occupancy costs tend to go up over time. But we really are working hard to keep expenses this year flat to maybe down a bit. So that's what I would expect there in dollar terms...

是的。所以有一件事，德文，你也提到了非補償。所以我只想說我們已經做了很多工作。我們將繼續不斷尋找節省成本的機會，我們正在盡最大努力。因此，如果你看看 2024 年與 2023 年的預期，我們預計將繼續看到通膨壓力和旅行增加，例如，入住成本往往會隨著時間的推移而上升。但我們確實正在努力保持今年的支出持平甚至下降一點。這就是我對美元的期望......

And the ratio will come down...

而且這個比例還會下降...

Okay. Terrific color. As a follow-up, Peter, I think there's been a positive reaction to the C-Corp conversion and the decisive actions you guys took there. So kudos, I think that's shown through in the stock. Yes, I think the question that I'm still getting is around strategic and maybe financial merit as well, the adviser -- the model with kind of Advisory plus Asset Management. And I appreciate that's been the model. But as you continue to assess, do you see scenarios where the businesses could be more valuable separated? Are you still evaluating that? I know you had said everything was on the table when you started. So I just would love to get an update on how you're thinking there? And is it still TBD? Or is this really kind of where we -- I guess, you made the decision on kind of the business model being combined.

好的。很棒的顏色。作為後續行動，Peter，我認為 C 型公司的轉變以及你們在那裡採取的果斷行動得到了積極的反應。所以值得稱讚的是，我認為這一點在股票中得到了體現。是的，我認為我仍然遇到的問題是圍繞著策略，也許還有財務價值，顧問——諮詢加資產管理的模型。我很欣賞這就是榜樣。但當您繼續評估時，您是否看到了將業務分開可能更有價值的情況？你還在評價嗎？我知道你一開始就說過一切都在桌面上。所以我很想了解您的最新想法？還待定嗎？或者這真的是我們——我猜，你就合併的商業模式所做的決定。

Sure. Well, the way I would put it is we see significant upside in both sides of the business. And so we're really focused on trying to create more value by executing on those opportunities, and that's the immediate task ahead of us. So on Advisory, I think we've laid out a path involving a net addition of MDs and also raising productivity. On the Asset Management side of the business, it involves really 2 things. One is optimizing the traditional business by a focus on investment performance and also on upgrading our distribution team with the goal of some degree of growth because market appreciation, at least more than offset the pressure on -- from fee compression and net outflows given the move to index funds in active management and liquid markets, combined with -- that's part one.

當然。嗯，我想說的是，我們看到業務雙方都有顯著的優勢。因此，我們真正專注於透過抓住這些機會來創造更多價值，這是我們眼前的任務。因此，在諮詢方面，我認為我們已經制定了一條涉及淨增加總經理並提高生產力的道路。在業務的資產管理方面，它實際上涉及兩件事。一是優化傳統業務，重點關注投資業績，併升級我們的分銷團隊，以實現一定程度的增長，因為市場升值至少足以抵消費用壓縮和淨流出帶來的壓力積極管理和流動市場中的指數基金，結合起來——這是第一部分。

And then part two is pivoting and diversifying the business into less liquid parts of the marketplace where investors are increasingly allocating their money, and we see a significant opportunity for Lazard in that space. And that will be a focus of our inorganic activity going forward, which we're going to do in a disciplined manner. So coming back to your question, we see significant upside on both sides of the business. We also see opportunities for fully -- in a fully compliant manner with all the appropriate firewalls for additional connectivity and synergies between the 2 businesses, too. So we are focused on all of that. And I think that's the next several years of what we're planning to do.

第二部分是將業務轉向流動性較低的市場領域並使其多元化，投資者越來越多地配置資金，我們在該領域看到了拉札德的重大機會。這將是我們未來無機活動的重點，我們將以有紀律的方式進行。回到你的問題，我們看到業務雙方都有顯著的優勢。我們還看到了以完全相容的方式與所有適當的防火牆完全相容的機會，以實現兩家企業之間的額外連接和協同作用。所以我們專注於所有這些。我認為這就是我們未來幾年的計劃。

Our next question comes from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

Peter, a question on just the restructuring comments you made. You noted you're anticipating higher for longer rates certainly bodes well for the liability management business, in particular, was hoping you could just speak to your outlook for the business relative to an active '23 and how it could be impacted if we do begin to see a steady stream of rate cuts beginning in May or June of this year.

彼得，關於您提出的重組評論的問題。您指出，您預計長期利率會更高，這對負債管理業務來說無疑是個好兆頭，特別是希望您能談談相對於活躍的“23”業務的前景，以及如果我們真的開始的話，它會受到什麼影響今年五月或六月開始穩定降息。

Sure. So what I would say with regard to our business is we started off at least relative to the market/some of the competition a little bit slower in 2023 in restructuring. But as we approached the end of the year, activity for us picked up significantly. And that's what we're seeing coming into 2024. The team is very active. We're really pleased with the new additions, which I think gives us a lot more firepower in the sector. We're also seeing the kind of flywheel effect from the various different things that we're doing. So we -- just to step back for a second, we have been diversifying the team. Historically, as you know, we were very debtor focused. We now have a team that can very ably cover both creditors and debtors.

當然。因此，關於我們的業務，我想說的是，我們在 2023 年的重組起步至少相對於市場/一些競爭對手要慢一些。但隨著年底的臨近，我們的活動顯著增加。這就是我們在 2024 年看到的情況。團隊非常活躍。我們對新增加的內容感到非常滿意，我認為這為我們在該領域提供了更多的火力。我們也從我們正在做的各種不同事情中看到了飛輪效應。所以我們——退一步來說，我們一直在讓團隊多元化。如您所知，從歷史上看，我們非常關注債務人。我們現在擁有一支能夠很好地覆蓋債權人和債務人的團隊。

We also have been building out our connectivity with private capital. That is important because a lot more of the restructuring and liability management activity is -- it involves private capital and private equity. And there's definitely a feedback loop from our new Lazard Capital Solutions team to restructuring and liability management, also, frankly, our PCA fundraising business. We've got lots of different touch points now with private capital, and we're seeing that play through also. So it looks like, for now, we're seeing an uptick in overall activity. I think that may well be partly because we've reconfigured our team to be able to cover to be where activity is in a very constructive way. The new additions are welcome. And with regard to whether a rate decline will change any of that in 2024, maybe at the margin, but 2 things.

我們也一直在建立與私人資本的連結。這很重要，因為更多的重組和負債管理活動涉及私人資本和私募股權。從我們新的 Lazard Capital Solutions 團隊到重組和負債管理，以及坦白說，我們的 PCA 籌款業務，肯定存在一個反饋循環。我們現在與私人資本有許多不同的接觸點，我們也看到了這種接觸點的發揮。因此，目前看來，我們看到整體活動增加。我認為這很可能部分是因為我們已經重新配置了我們的團隊，以便能夠以非常有建設性的方式參與活動。歡迎新的補充。至於 2024 年利率下降是否會改變這一切，也許幅度很小，但有兩件事。

One is I think the market may well still be overly optimistic about when the Fed is going to start cutting rates and we can perhaps go into that if you'd like. But secondly, the rate reductions are going to be gradual. And so I think for a lot of 2024, the type of environment that we're seeing, especially combined with the wall of maturities that are approaching is going to lead to a lot of restructuring activity.

一是我認為市場可能仍然對聯準會何時開始降息過於樂觀，如果您願意，我們也許可以討論這一點。但其次，降息將是漸進的。因此，我認為在 2024 年的大部分時間裡，我們所看到的環境類型，特別是與即將到來的到期牆相結合，將導致大量重組活動。

That's really helpful, Peter. And just for my follow-up, just a clarifying question around the revenue trajectory. Some of your peers have indicated they expect a slow build in fees in '24, just given the elongated deal and conversion time lines, I wanted to get a sense, given your strong backlog momentum, the tailwinds you cited in your prepared remarks entering '24, how we should think about the revenue trajectory over the coming year? And is the expectation it's going to be a little bit more back half loaded just given some of those elongated time lines?

這真的很有幫助，彼得。對於我的後續行動，只是澄清有關收入軌跡的問題。你們的一些同行表示，他們預計24 年的費用會緩慢增加，只是考慮到交易和轉換時間線的延長，考慮到你們強勁的積壓勢頭，你們在準備好的評論中提到的順風車進入“，我想了解一下。」24. 我們該如何看待來年的收入軌跡？考慮到一些拉長的時間線，是否會期望它會多一點後半加載？

Well, I've spoken also before about those time lines. It does take time from conversation to announcement to completion. Each of those have variables and sometimes long lags between them. But we're moving through that process. So again, I think we're -- the market has definitely turned. With regard to the kind of within the year, typically, for example, the first quarter is not the strongest quarter of the year and things -- and often the fourth quarter is the strongest quarter of the year. So if you just looked at history, I think that would be a reasonable pattern to project. And I guess, there's nothing we're seeing that suggests that, that typical historical pattern is not what to expect also in 2024.

嗯，我之前也談過這些時間線。從談話到宣布再到完成確實需要時間。其中每一個都有變量，有時它們之間存在很長的滯後。但我們正在經歷這個過程。再說一遍，我認為市場肯定已經發生了轉變。就一年內的情況而言，通常，例如，第一季不是一年中最強勁的季度，而第四季度往往是一年中最強勁的季度。因此，如果你只看歷史，我認為這將是一個合理的預測模式。我想，我們沒有看到任何跡象表明這種典型的歷史模式也不會在 2024 年出現。

Our next question comes from Brennan Hawken with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布倫南霍肯。

I'd love to -- it's very helpful to hear your productivity targets. So I'd like to drill down on maybe how to think about MD growth. So you gave some color on hiring and promotes here recently. We see that the MD head count is already down recently from the 1Q level. I know that 10% wasn't about MDs and there's -- Mary Ann gave some color on the fact that there's still some flow-through to happen for headcount. But how should we think about that flow through on the MD headcount number? And then how should we think about also the go-forward investing plans and any kind of like annual pace of net adds?

我很樂意——了解您的生產力目標非常有幫助。所以我想深入探討如何思考總經理的成長。您最近對這裡的招募和晉升發表了一些看法。我們看到最近MD的人數已經較第一季的水平有所下降。我知道這 10% 與 MD 無關，瑪麗安 (Mary Ann) 就人員數量仍有一些流動性這一事實給出了一些解釋。但我們該如何看待 MD 人數的流動呢？那麼我們應該如何考慮未來的投資計劃以及任何類似的年度淨增加速度？

Sure. So I think maybe in the starting base, you should project forward once we get through the year-end process of -- and some people who will be leaving Lazard are actually doing so, you should start off in Financial Advisory at about 200 managing directors and build from there. And I think with regard to the piece in the sort of annual plan, I think you should expect, obviously, there will be variations from year-to-year, but we're planning and hoping to come in at around that 10 net add per year. It might be plus or minus a little, but depending on -- this is -- especially on lateral hires, the matching function matters a lot, and we want to make sure that we're not just filling a quota on hitting a net out of 10, but rather getting the right people. So sometimes it will be more than that, sometimes it will be less than that, but I don't think the variation will be that significant per year.

當然。因此，我認為，也許在起步階段，一旦我們完成了年終流程，您就應該向前推進——有些將要離開 Lazard 的人實際上正在這樣做，您應該從大約 200 名董事總經理的財務諮詢開始並從那裡開始構建。我認為，關於年度計劃中的這一部分，我想你應該預料到，顯然，每年都會有變化，但我們正在計劃並希望能夠達到 10 左右的淨增加值每年。它可能會增加或減少一點，但取決於 - 這是 - 特別是在橫向僱用方面，匹配功能非常重要，我們希望確保我們不僅僅是在擊球時填補配額10，而是找到合適的人。所以有時會比這個多，有時會比這個少，但我認為每年的變化不會那麼大。

Okay. Great. Great. Yes, of course. But it will be around, that's...

好的。偉大的。偉大的。是的當然。但它會圍繞著，那就是......

Yes, around.

是的，周圍。

Yes, hopeful to get a rough idea. I would love to drill on expenses because given your efficiency efforts and some of the moving pieces here this year, how should we think about the fixed expense base going forward, what kind of a delta versus where you were in 2023? And how much -- sort of most importantly really, how much of these changes increased your level of operating leverage to an environment that seems to be improving?

是的，希望能得到一個大概的想法。我很想深入了解支出，因為考慮到你們今年在效率方面所做的努力和一些變化，我們應該如何考慮未來的固定支出基礎，與 2023 年的情況相比，會有什麼樣的增量？最重要的是，這些變化在多大程度上提高了您對似乎正在改善的環境的營運槓桿水平？

Yes. So I'll start and then maybe Mary Ann will come in. Let's separate them into -- the fixed costs into 2 components. In the non-comp category, I think you should think about non-comp being roughly flat in dollar terms, just coming back to some of the earlier commentary. That's a combination of some things that will respond to a stronger market travel and entertainment is a good example and other things where we think we could have some reductions in 2024. Professional services is a good example in that category. And then in the comp line, you should expect that fixed costs will go down as a result of the -- as the head count reductions materialize. And then clearly, the bonuses component will depend on how the business has performed throughout the year. And Mary Ann will (inaudible) in a little bit more detail perhaps.

是的。所以我會開始，然後瑪麗安可能會進來。讓我們將它們分成——固定成本分成兩個部分。在非補償類別中，我認為您應該考慮非補償以美元計算大致持平，只是回到之前的一些評論。這是一些對更強勁的市場做出反應的因素的結合，旅遊和娛樂就是一個很好的例子，我們認為我們可以在2024 年減少一些其他因素。專業服務就是該類別中的一個很好的例子。然後，在薪酬方面，您應該預期，隨著員工人數減少的實現，固定成本將會下降。顯然，獎金部分將取決於公司全年的業績表現。瑪麗安也許會（聽不清楚）更詳細一點。

But the most important point is everything we're doing here is to make Lazard more efficient and to put us on the path to raising productivity because that is the way to get operating leverage, and we are pleased with the progress that we're making. Mary Ann?

但最重要的一點是，我們在這裡所做的一切都是為了提高 Lazard 的效率，讓我們走上提高生產力的道路，因為這是獲得營運槓桿的方法，我們對我們正在取得的進展感到滿意。瑪麗安？

Yes. I'll just add a couple of things to that. And really focusing on the fixed portion of compensation costs which you've got a couple of different components in there, right? So you've got salaries, which we will expect to come down sort of as we see the effects of the head count reductions come through. You've got benefits, which for us are higher than most companies because of our presence in Europe, benefits and social charges. And so -- and those tend to vary with cash bonuses. So there's some unpredictability there, but generally tend to go up over time. And then you've got amortization of prior year awards, which as high awards have gone up in the past that we see the effects of those in future years, as you know.

是的。我將添加一些內容。真正關注的是補償成本的固定部分，其中有幾個不同的組成部分，對吧？因此，當我們看到裁員的效果顯現時，我們預期薪資會下降。您可以獲得福利，對我們來說，由於我們在歐洲、福利和社會費用方面的存在，這些福利高於大多數公司。所以——這些往往會隨著現金獎金的不同而改變。因此存在一些不可預測性，但通常會隨著時間的推移而上升。然後你會得到上一年獎項的攤銷，正如你所知，隨著過去高額獎項的增加，我們會看到這些獎項對未來幾年的影響。

And the other element that is sort of impacting this year, in particular, is we've got a couple of pretty productive people who are becoming retirement eligible. And so you recognize their entire award in the year of the grant essentially because they've owned the whole thing and don't have to stay through the service period.

特別是今年影響的另一個因素是，我們有一些非常有生產力的人，他們即將達到退休資格。因此，您在撥款當年就認可了他們的全部獎項，本質上是因為他們擁有整個事物，並且不必在服務期內留下來。

Got it. And just -- sorry, Mary Ann, just to clarify, that comment on the retirement eligible, those are the new folks who are retirement eligible this year, so a delta versus what the impact was for...

知道了。只是 - 抱歉，瑪麗安，只是為了澄清一下，對符合退休資格的評論，這些人是今年符合退休資格的新人，所以三角洲與影響是什麼......

That's right. That's right.

這是正確的。這是正確的。

Our next question comes from Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global 的 Jim Mitchell。

Just maybe on -- you noted, Peter, that Europe was particularly strong this year. Can you talk about your outlook on Europe? How much of that strength was just your push for productivity and collaboration versus the environment? And how you're thinking about that in '24?

彼得，你可能注意到，歐洲今年特別強勁。能談談您對歐洲的看法嗎？這種力量有多少只是你對生產力和協作與環境的推動？你在 24 年對此有何看法？

Sure. So look, we have new co-heads of Europe on the Advisory side, which is fantastic. That's -- I think if you go back to our Lazard's history, one of the questions always was the degree to which Europe was integrated. We're there, the co-heads are off to a great start. And we expect more to come from that structure as we move forward through time. With regard to the market, we're still seeing significant activity in M&A and in restructuring out of Europe. It may well be that part of the reason for that is that the macroeconomic environment is a bit more challenging in Europe than in the U.S., especially in Germany specifically but across the continent and to some degree in the U.K.

當然。所以看，我們在諮詢方面有新的歐洲聯席主管，這太棒了。我認為，如果你回顧拉札德的歷史，問題之一始終是歐洲一體化的程度。我們在那裡，聯合負責人有了一個好的開始。隨著時間的推移，我們預計該結構會帶來更多成果。就市場而言，我們仍然看到歐洲以外的併購和重組活動活躍。部分原因很可能是歐洲的宏觀經濟環境比美國更具挑戰性，尤其是德國，但整個歐洲大陸以及英國在某種程度上也是如此。

And so as companies see that more challenging domestic market, they are looking for top line growth through inorganic options, including in other geographies, and that plays to our strength. I'd highlight again that among the independent firms, we really are the only one that has a strong presence in both North America and Europe. So to the extent that European firms are looking for North American targets, that's a natural fit with Lazard.

因此，當公司看到更具挑戰性的國內市場時，他們正在透過無機選擇尋求收入成長，包括在其他地區，這發揮了我們的優勢。我想再次強調，在獨立公司中，我們確實是唯一一家在北美和歐洲都擁有強大影響力的公司。因此，就歐洲公司正在尋找北美目標而言，這與拉扎德是自然契合的。

Right. Makes sense. And then just maybe on the margin targets. You talked about getting productivity per MD up to $8.5 million by '25. Is that kind of the bogey you need to get to the 20% margin and comp ratio targets? Or just trying to triangulate what normalized you would mean for those targets?

正確的。說得通。然後也許只是利潤目標。您談到 25 年將每位 MD 的生產力提高到 850 萬美元。這是實現 20% 利潤率和補償率目標所需的禁忌嗎？或者只是試圖三角測量標準化對這些目標意味著什麼？

I think there are lots of ways of hitting the normalized targets, but the plan all fits together. And so we are aiming to accomplish all of the things that we've set out, productivity targets, obviously, make it easier to hit the margin targets. But I wouldn't say it's not a necessary condition. It may be partially sufficient, but it's not necessary. But we're planning on doing all of the above. So hitting the expansion in the number of MDs, the increase in productivity, which then helps the finance increase in the number of MDs and be very attentive to our comp and non-comp expense ratios as the market normalizes.

我認為實現正常化目標的方法有很多，但計劃都是相互配合的。因此，我們的目標是完成我們設定的所有目標，生產力目標，顯然，讓實現利潤目標變得更容易。但我不會說這不是必要條件。這可能是部分足夠的，但不是必需的。但我們計劃做上述所有事情。因此，增加總經理數量，提高生產力，這有助於財務部增加總經理數量，並隨著市場正常化，非常關注我們的補償和非補償費用比率。

Our next question comes from James Yaro with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的詹姆斯·亞羅。

I just wanted to touch on the Asset Management business and get your expectations for flows in the fee rate in that business over 2024 and maybe into 2025.

我只是想談談資產管理業務，並了解您對 2024 年甚至 2025 年該業務費率流量的預期。

I'll let Evan take that.

我會讓埃文拿走。

Sure. James, this is Evan. So look, I think flows, as we talked about in the previous quarters, we expected that flows will becoming more balanced overall for us, net flows in 2023 were significantly better than in previous years despite some of the headwinds that we've all seen in the market. We expect it to be choppy, continue to be choppy month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter, as you know, based on our business and certainly the first half of this year. A lot of that is driven by the fact that you still have a lot of money sitting on the sidelines, moved into money market, short duration type instruments based on higher yields that people are getting. So it's a lot of money sitting on the sideline that's drawing capital away from risk assets and putting new money to work. So there's a little bit less conviction that we saw. And I think that the market saw generally in Q4 and into the beginning of this year by putting new money to work.

當然。詹姆斯，這是埃文。所以看，我認為流量，正如我們在前幾個季度談到的那樣，我們預計總體流量將變得更加平衡，儘管我們都看到了一些不利因素，但 2023 年的淨流量明顯好於前幾年在市場上。如你所知，基於我們的業務，當然還有今年上半年，我們預期它會波動，而且每個月、每季都會波動。這在很大程度上是由於這樣一個事實：你仍然有大量資金處於觀望狀態，進入貨幣市場，基於人們獲得的更高收益率的短期類型工具。因此，大量資金處於觀望狀態，從風險資產中抽走資金，並投入新資金。所以我們看到的信念有點少。我認為，市場在第四季和今年年初普遍看到了新資金投入使用的情況。

So that starts to come off the sidelines, which we expect to happen over the coming quarters ahead, we expect that to be a positive movement for us. We're seeing significantly, as Peter called out in the script, we're seeing growing interest in many of our global strategies, the quantitative platform and selectively in fixed income. I'd probably say it's a little bit earlier for us in the emerging markets. As part of the cycle, I think investors are still, as we said, sitting a little bit on the sidelines waiting for that opportune moment, waiting for the right timing to go back and reallocate into EM. As you know, the last probably 5 or 10 years, people started taking allocations down. So we see that as a potential growth option and we're definitely having more conversations with clients and allocators about the right timing of that transition back into that space. And that would obviously be a positive for us as well, but I would expect that to be playing out right over the next 12 to 18 months.

因此，這開始脫離場外，我們預計這將在未來幾季發生，我們預計這對我們來說是一個積極的變化。正如彼得在劇本中指出的那樣，我們明顯看到，人們對我們的許多全球策略、量化平台以及有選擇的固定收益越來​​越感興趣。我可能會說，對於我們新興市場來說，這個時間有點早了。作為週期的一部分，我認為，正如我們所說，投資者仍然在觀望，等待合適的時機，等待合適的時機返回並重新配置到新興市場。如您所知，在過去的 5 年或 10 年裡，人們開始減少分配。因此，我們認為這是一個潛在的成長選擇，我們肯定會與客戶和分配者進行更多對話，討論回歸該領域的正確時機。這顯然對我們來說也是積極的，但我預計這將在未來 12 到 18 個月內發揮作用。

But overall, I think that's the strategy that we would see continuing to work in. I think from a performance perspective, we've had a significant performance across the portfolios with significant strength in many of those areas that I called out global EM, the quantitative platform. And so as markets broaden out from what we saw in the past years, we all know, the return performance beyond just 7 stocks, I think this moved more towards fundamentally driven markets and certainly will play to our strength and we're already seeing that in the performance that we've had in the emerging markets in many of our international strategies.

但整體而言，我認為這是我們將繼續採用的策略。我認為從業績效角度來看，我們在各個投資組合中都取得了顯著的業績，在我所說的全球新興市場、量化平台。因此，隨著市場從我們過去幾年看到的情況擴大，我們都知道，回報表現不僅僅是7 隻股票，我認為這更多地轉向基本面驅動的市場，並且肯定會發揮我們的優勢，我們已經看到了我們在許多國際策略中在新興市場的表現。

Okay. That was very helpful. Just one other one, which is on your buyback. I think the size of buyback was a positive surprise in the quarter, in my opinion. Maybe you could just speak to your updated thoughts on capital return priorities from here.

好的。這非常有幫助。只有另一件，這是你回購的。在我看來，本季回購規模令人意外。也許您可以從這裡談談您對資本回報優先事項的最新想法。

I'll start, and then Mary Ann can come in. Look, moving forward, as I've said before -- well, first, to start with, we have 2 very cash-generative businesses as markets normalize. And as we move forward in time, we are going to be putting an increased emphasis on using that cash flow for the inorganic opportunities that we see in asset management, obviously, beyond the dividend. And so I would highlight, for example, we have a new Head of CorpDev who is starting in the next 2 or 3 weeks as we add additional capabilities to explore inorganic opportunities that we see on this pivot and diversification of the Asset Management business. We are going to approach that in a very disciplined manner. And obviously, (inaudible) that use of cash and that use of capital against other potential uses, including buybacks and deleveraging.

我先開始，然後瑪麗安可以進來。看，繼續前進，正如我之前所說的那樣，首先，隨著市場正常化，我們有兩個非常能產生現金的業務。隨著時間的推移，我們將更加重視將現金流用於我們在資產管理中看到的無機機會，顯然，除了股息之外。因此，我要強調的是，例如，我們將在未來2 到3 週內任命一位新的CorpDev 主管，因為我們將增加額外的能力來探索我們在資產管理業務的這一點和多元化方面看到的無機機會。我們將以非常嚴格的方式處理這個問題。顯然，（聽不清楚）現金的使用和資本的其他潛在用途的使用，包括回購和去槓桿化。

A couple of points. James, just to clarify, my comments on buybacks were for the full year, and we did buybacks in the first quarter primarily, but not this quarter. So just to make sure that's clear. And then on the pace of buybacks going forward, as Peter just said, that's one of the uses of our excess cash, and we certainly plan to offset dilution from stock comp over time. I would just sort of note that the pace may be a bit uneven based on other opportunities that we have. So it's not great for modeling, but I would expect to offset, but not necessarily immediately or as quickly as we have in the past.

有幾點。詹姆斯，我想澄清一下，我對回購的評論是針對全年的，我們主要在第一季進行了回購，但不是本季。所以只是為了確保這一點清楚。然後，關於未來回購的步伐，正如彼得剛才所說，這是我們多餘現金的用途之一，我們當然計劃隨著時間的推移抵消股票補償的稀釋。我只是想指出，根據我們擁有的其他機會，步伐可能有點不平衡。因此，這對於建模來說不是很好，但我希望能夠抵消，但不一定會立即或像我們過去那樣快。

Our last question will come from Mike Brown with KBW.

我們的最後一個問題將由 KBW 的 Mike Brown 提出。

Peter, you mentioned part of the plan for the Asset Management business is to pivot and diversify into private markets. And understanding that this is going to be a multiyear process. But just wanted to hear a little bit more about that, what could acquisitions look like there? It sounds like it's early days. You mentioned that you just hired someone in the kind of CorpDev side of the business. But how do you think about bringing on the right assets to scale on the Lazard platform while also paying the right price or it can be accretive just given the valuations in the space are certainly high in the private market side?

彼得，您提到資產管理業務計劃的一部分是轉向私人市場並實現多元化。並了解這將是一個多年的過程。但只是想多聽一點，那裡的收購會是什麼樣子？聽起來現在還太早。您提到您剛剛聘請了公司開發的人員。但是，您如何看待在 Lazard 平台上引入合適的資產來擴大規模，同時支付合適的價格，或者考慮到該領域在私人市場方面的估值肯定很高，它可以增值？

Yes. So here's the way I would look -- I would sort of phrase that. We're acting with urgency but also discipline focused on obviously trying to find the right fit, not just making an acquisition for the sake of making one. I'd highlight not just price but cultural fit as being extremely important to making sure that the inorganic strategy and the programmatic M&A is its success over time. We're particularly focused on private asset managers with some degree of established track record that are still relatively early in their AUM progression where they could benefit from our prestigious brand in our distribution network, a global distribution network. And we benefit from their diversification of offerings and performance.

是的。這就是我的樣子——我會這麼說。我們的行動既緊迫又嚴格，專注於尋找合適的人選，而不僅僅是為了收購而收購。我要強調的不僅是價格，還有文化契合度，因為這對於確保無機策略和程序化併購隨著時間的推移取得成功至關重要。我們特別關注擁有一定業績記錄的私人資產管理公司，這些資產管理公司仍處於資產管理規模發展的相對早期階段，他們可以從我們的分銷網絡（全球分銷網絡）中享有盛譽的品牌中受益。我們受益於他們多樣化的產品和性能。

And we see a lot of opportunity to acquire firms of this size and at this stage as they may be too small to move the needle at the very large alternative asset managers and too large to integrate into firms much smaller than we are. So there's a sweet spot for us, and we're going to, again, act with urgency, but also take the appropriate care to find the right match because we are fully cognizant of the risks of deals going astray or integration that doesn't work. So you should expect, again, I use the word programmatic on purpose. We are going to do this over time. And we're going to wait to make sure we get the right match. But as soon as we see the right match, we are going to act decisively.

在現階段，我們看到了許多收購這種規模的公司的機會，因為它們可能太小，無法在大型另類資產管理公司中發揮作用，也可能太大，無法整合到比我們小得多的公司中。因此，這對我們來說是一個最佳時機，我們將再次採取緊急行動，但也要採取適當的謹慎措施來找到合適的匹配者，因為我們充分認識到交易誤入歧途或整合不成功的風險。工作。所以你應該預料到，我再次使用「程序化」這個詞。我們將隨著時間的推移這樣做。我們將等待以確保我們找到合適的比賽。但一旦我們看到合適的對手，我們就會果斷採取行動。

Okay. Great. And just maybe one kind of follow-up on the Advisory side of the business. You had mentioned in your prepared remarks that the private equity side, it is getting more active. What is that starting to look like at this stage? Is it still more about kind of the dialogues? Or are you starting to see things kind of falling into place? And if you think about historically, what would be the final hurdles here that would need to get that cohort to become more active?

好的。偉大的。也許這只是業務諮詢的一種後續行動。您在準備好的發言中提到，私募股權方面正在變得更加活躍。現階段情況會是什麼樣子？還更多的是關於對話的類型嗎？還是你開始看到事情正在步入正軌？如果你從歷史角度思考，要讓這群人變得更活躍，最後的障礙是什麼？

Well, let me say a couple of things. First, outside of M&A, we have lots of business with private capital/alternative asset managers, that's our Lazard Capital Solutions practice in the private credit and other fundraising vectors in our restructuring and liability management practice in our PCA, our funding business, which had a lot of activity, especially in the secondaries component of its business last year and that continues into this year. And then to the heart of your question, we are just seeing, I think after a period of time in which private equity was trying to -- was a little bit on the sidelines with regard to especially sell side, their core business model is being transactional coming back online.

好吧，讓我說幾件事。首先，除了併購之外，我們與私人資本/另類資產管理公司有很多業務，這是我們在私人信貸和其他籌款媒介方面的拉扎德資本解決方案實踐，在我們的PCA（我們的融資業務）的重組和負債管理實踐中，大量活動，特別是去年其業務的二級部分，並將持續到今年。然後說到你問題的核心，我們只是看到，我認為在一段時間私募股權公司試圖——特別是賣方方面有點旁觀之後，他們的核心業務模式正在被交易重新上線。

I don't -- so I think it's just -- it was a matter of time. And we're seeing that in our dialogues, I think, it's also apparent from the commentary, from some of the leaders of the biggest alternative asset managers that they're coming back. I think they said coming back on the playing field, and that's the way I would describe it. So the level of activity is not what it was yet in 2021. It's clear also that our dialogue with strategic started to get more serious earlier than with private equity, but that is now re-equilibrating and we're seeing a lot of dialogue with private equity around M&A specifically in addition to the other ways in which we interact with them.

我不——所以我認為這只是——這是一個時間問題。我認為，我們在對話中看到，從一些最大的另類資產管理公司領導人的評論中也可以明顯看出他們正在回歸。我想他們說要回到賽場上，我就是這麼描述的。因此，活動水準已達不到 2021 年的水準。很明顯，我們與策略部門的對話比私募股權更早開始變得更加認真，但現在正在重新平衡，我們看到與私募股權公司進行了大量對話特別是圍繞併購的私募股權以及我們與他們互動的其他方式。

I will now turn the call back to Peter Orszag for any closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給 Peter Orszag，讓其發表結束語。

Look, thank you for joining. I would just say one thing in closing, which is it's been about 4 months since taking over the role of CEO, and I've been very actively meeting with our clients and our own employees and colleagues and shareholders. And the results of all of that is that my conviction about the path that we're on has only increased. It is remarkable to interact with clients who are on an unsolicited basis, very complementary of the work that we do. And most importantly, this organization is united in its ambition to aim higher and achieve our Lazard 2030 goals. So more to come, and thank you for joining us.

瞧，謝謝你的加入。最後我只想說一件事，自從接任執行長以來已經過去了大約 4 個月，我一直非常積極地與我們的客戶、我們自己的員工、同事和股東會面。所有這一切的結果是，我對我們所走的道路的信念只增不減。與主動主動的客戶互動是非常了不起的，這與我們所做的工作非常互補。最重要的是，組織團結一致，志存高遠，實現我們的 Lazard 2030 目標。未來還會有更多內容，感謝您加入我們。

This does conclude today's Lazard Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

今天的 Lazard 第四季和 2023 年全年財報電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。