可口可樂公司報告稱,由於 7 月開局緩慢,2024 年第三季銷量下降 1%。儘管如此,該公司預計今年將實現高端營收指引和 5% 至 6% 的獲利成長。各地區的強勁表現抵消了中國和中東的挑戰。
該公司專注於行銷、創新和執行以推動成長,特別強調數位能力和與零售商的互動。總體而言,可口可樂對其長期成長機會和實現其目標的能力仍然充滿信心。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Unidentified_1
Unidentified_1
Thanks.
謝謝。
Hello.
你好。
We have been probably when you go play one being the with that in at the if you believe that we can make them ended up the day, I do believe that we can make them ended up at the debt to date.
如果你相信我們能讓他們結束這一天,我確實相信我們能讓他們結束迄今為止的債務。
At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Coca-Cola Company's third quarter 2024 earnings results conference call.
現在,我歡迎大家參加可口可樂公司2024年第三季財報電話會議。
Today's call is being recorded.
今天的通話正在錄音。
You have any objections, please disconnect at this time.
您有任何異議,請此時斷開連接。
All participants will be on listen only mode until the formal question and answer portion of the call.
在通話的正式問答部分之前,所有參與者都將處於僅聽模式。
I would like to remind everyone that the purpose of this conference is to talk with investors and therefore, questions from the media will not be addressed.
我想提醒大家的是,這次會議的目的是與投資人對話,因此不會回答媒體的提問。
Media participants should contact Coca-Cola's Media Relations Department if they have any questions, I would now like to introduce Ms. Robin Halpern, Vice President and Head of Investor Relations.
媒體朋友如果有任何問題請聯絡可口可樂媒體關係部,我現在介紹一下副總裁兼投資人關係主管Robin Halpern女士。
Helping you may now begin.
現在可以開始幫助您了。
Good morning and thank you for joining us.
早安,感謝您加入我們。
I'm here with James Quincey, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and John Murphy, our President and Chief Financial Officer.
我和我們的董事長兼執行長詹姆斯·昆西以及我們的總裁兼財務長約翰·墨菲一起來到這裡。
We've posted schedules under financial information in the Investors section of our company website.
我們已在公司網站的投資者部分的財務資訊下發布了時間表。
These reconciles certain non-GAAP financial measures that may be referred to this morning to results as reported under generally accepted accounting principles.
這些措施將今天上午可能提到的某些非公認會計原則財務指標與根據公認會計原則報告的結果進行了協調。
You can also find scheduled in the same section of our website that provided analysis of our growth and operating margin.
您也可以在我們網站的同一部分找到安排,其中提供了我們的成長和營業利潤率的分析。
This call may contain forward-looking statements, including statements concerning long-term earnings objectives, which should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements contained in our earnings release and in the Company's periodic SEC rules.
本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述,包括有關長期盈利目標的陳述,這些陳述應與我們的盈利報告和公司定期 SEC 規則中包含的警示性陳述結合起來考慮。
Port.
港口。
Following prepared remarks, we will take your questions.
在準備好的發言之後,我們將回答您的問題。
Please limit yourself to one question reenter the queue to ask any follow-up.
請只回答一個問題,然後重新進入隊列詢問任何後續問題。
Now I will turn the call over to James.
現在我將把電話轉給詹姆斯。
Thanks, Robin, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝羅賓,大家早安。
For a good first half of 2024.
2024 年上半年表現良好。
We navigated through a dynamic external landscape during the third quarter, business, again proved to be resilient.
我們在第三季經歷了充滿活力的外部環境,業務再次證明具有彈性。
Volume declined 1% in the quarter, driven by a slow start in July
由於 7 月開局緩慢,本季成交量下降 1%
.
。
However, our business trends improved each both a notably trademark Coca-Cola volume outperformed during the quarter.
然而,我們的業務趨勢有所改善,可口可樂的標誌性銷量在本季表現優於其他公司。
I used to date 2020 for performance gives us confidence.
我曾經約會過 2020 年,因為表現給了我們信心。
We will deliver the high end of our previous top line guidance and earnings growth of 5% to 6%, including approximately 9% of currency headwinds.
我們將實現先前最高線指導的高端和 5% 至 6% 的獲利成長,其中包括約 9% 的貨幣不利因素。
With that, as context, I'll start with an update on the global consumer landscape under review
以此為背景,我將首先介紹正在審查的全球消費者格局的最新情況
.
。
The third quarter business performance.
第三季經營業績。
Then I'll explain how we're delivering on our objectives by staying agile and improving execution of our strategy across each facet of our growth flywheel.
然後我將解釋我們如何透過保持敏捷性並改善成長飛輪各個方面的策略執行來實現我們的目標。
John will end by discussing financial details for the quarter, our updated guidance for full year 2020 for some early considerations for 2025.
John 最後將討論本季的財務細節、我們對 2020 年全年的最新指導,以及 2025 年的一些早期考慮。
During the quarter, global consumer sentiment and spending in aggregate held up well and then a broader industry continued to expand.
本季度,全球消費者信心和整體支出保持良好,隨後更廣泛的行業繼續擴張。
In this context, we delivered robust organic revenue growth and value share gains in both at-home and away-from-home channels.
在此背景下,我們在家庭和外出通路上實現了強勁的有機收入成長和價值份額成長。
We also expanded comparable margins.
我們也擴大了可比利潤率。
This led to 5% comparable earnings per share growth despite nearly double digit currency headwinds and the impact of bottler refranchising.
儘管面臨近兩位數的貨幣逆風和裝瓶商再特許經營的影響,這仍導致每股可比收益增加 5%。
We continue to demonstrate staying as the beverage industry remains attractive.
我們將繼續證明飲料業仍然具有吸引力。
We've we've many strong new and existing players as system is well positioned to develop the commercial beverage industry in many markets and capture long-term balanced growth across the world.
我們擁有許多強大的新參與者和現有參與者,因為系統處於有利位置,可以在許多市場上發展商業飲料行業,並在全球範圍內實現長期平衡增長。
We are leveraging our scale a local expertise to navigate varying local market dynamics.
我們正在利用我們的規模和本地專業知識來應對不同的本地市場動態。
In North America, we generated robust top-line growth on one value share trademark, Coca-Cola and sparkling flavors.
在北美,我們的一項價值份額商標——可口可樂和氣泡口味——實現了強勁的營收成長。
Both grew volume during the quarter and year to date, trademark Coca-Cola and fair live with the leaders in the beverage industry in at home retail sales growth.
本季和年初至今,銷量均有所增長,可口可樂商標和飲料行業領先者的家庭零售銷售成長情況均如此。
Consumers are responding well to shop a value messaging in away-from-home channels, and we're continuing to drive affordable and premium packages across our total beverage portfolio to realize positive mix
消費者對在外出通路購買價值資訊的反應良好,我們將繼續在整個飲料產品組合中推出價格實惠且優質的套餐,以實現積極的組合
.
。
In Latin America, volume was flat during the quarter as we cycled strong growth in the prior year.
在拉丁美洲,本季銷售持平,而去年我們經歷了強勁成長。
We had solid revenue growth led by Coca-Cola zero Sugar and Powerade
在可口可樂零糖和 Powerade 的帶動下,我們的收入實現了穩健成長
.
。
We also benefited from integrating marketing activations across the region.
我們也受益於整個地區的營銷活動整合。
For example, in Brazil, Rock in Rio reached over 70 million people and let the trademark Coca-Cola being the most mentioned brand on TikTok stepped up execution by increasing cooler placement and investing in digital capabilities is also driving results.
例如,在巴西,《Rock in Rio》的受眾超過 7000 萬人,讓可口可樂這一商標在 TikTok 上被提及最多的品牌通過增加更酷的投放和投資數字能力來加強執行力也正在推動成果。
In EMEA, we saw improved performance in Europe and strong growth across many parts of Africa.
在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,我們看到歐洲業績有所改善,非洲許多地區也強勁成長。
The performance in Eurasia and Middle East and North Africa unfavorably impacted overall results.
歐亞大陸、中東和北非地區的表現對整體業績產生了不利影響。
In Europe, we grew volume during the quarter and benefit from the Olympic and Paralympic Games.
在歐洲,我們在本季度實現了銷售成長,並受益於奧運和殘奧會。
Fuse T and Powerade continued their strong momentum, and we're continuing to focus on affordable price points, value packages, tailored promotions of premium offerings to drive demand in Eurasia and Middle East, a confluence of headwinds limited decline in volume.
Fuse T 和Powerade 繼續保持強勁勢頭,我們將繼續專注於實惠的價格點、超值套餐、優質產品的客製化促銷活動,以推動歐亞大陸和中東的需求,各種不利因素的結合限制了銷量的下降。
While it's fair to assume pressure will persist in the near term, we are taking action as system is driving affordability and availability, and we're leaning into the local intrinsics of our business.
雖然可以公平地假設壓力在短期內持續存在,但我們正在採取行動,因為系統正在推動可負擔性和可用性,我們正在傾向於我們業務的本地本質。
In Africa, volume declined largely due to pressure in some North African markets.
在非洲,銷量下降主要是由於一些北非市場的壓力。
Outside of these markets, we grew volume and gained value share as system is investing for the long-term by accelerating refillable offerings, cooler placement and increasing manufacturing capacity.
在這些市場之外,我們透過加速可再填充產品、冷卻器放置和提高製造能力進行長期投資,從而增加了銷售並獲得了價值份額。
Lastly, the in Asia Pacific, despite weakness in China as a couple of markets in Southeast Asia, we grew organic revenue and comparable operating income.
最後,在亞太地區,儘管中國作為東南亞的幾個市場表現疲軟,但我們的有機收入和可比營業收入有所增長。
As you are in the South Pacific, we gained value share, led by the Philippines and Australia.
由於在南太平洋地區,我們獲得了價值份額,其中以菲律賓和澳洲為首。
The Philippines grew affordable transactions with refillable packages and grew premium transactions with single-serve offerings
菲律賓透過可再填充包裝增加了平價交易,並透過單份服務增加了優質交易
.
。
Australia.
澳大利亞。
Prioritized affordability initiatives across our sparkling portfolio has successfully activated the Olympic games with Powerade in Japan and South Korea, where good traction on brand relaunches, which leveraged enhanced taste and refreshed packaging and stepped up performance in e-commerce channels.
我們的閃亮產品組合中優先考慮的可負擔性舉措已成功激活日本和韓國的Powerade 奧運會,品牌重新推出具有良好的吸引力,利用了增強的品味和更新的包裝,並提高了電子商務渠道的績效。
In China, a challenging operating environment and strategic reprioritization of our portfolio led to a decline in volume.
在中國,充滿挑戰的營運環境和我們投資組合的策略優先順序調整導致銷售下降。
We're continuing to focus on driving affordability across our core portfolio.
我們將繼續致力於提高核心產品組合的可負擔性。
Our longer-term growth ambition is unchanged, and we are investing to come out ahead when conditions improve.
我們的長期成長目標沒有改變,我們正在進行投資,以便在情況改善時取得領先。
In India, volume declined in states impacted by higher than normal monsoons in geographic areas that were unaffected.
在印度,在未受影響的地理區域中,受高於正常季風影響的邦的產量下降。
Volume grew mid-single digits.
成交量成長了中個位數。
We remain upbeat about progress in integrated execution and our ability to capture long-term growth opportunity.
我們對綜合執行方面的進展以及我們抓住長期成長機會的能力保持樂觀。
To sum everything up, while our markets continue to move in many different directions and our agility is being put to the test at all whether strategy is working.
總而言之,雖然我們的市場繼續朝著許多不同的方向發展,但我們的敏捷性正在經歷考驗,無論策略是否有效。
We're continuing to deliver on our strategy through a combination of world-class marketing and innovation and excellence in revenue, growth management and execution, starting with marketing and innovation are refreshed marketing model is integrating digital life and retail experiences to connect with consumers in unique and personalized ways.
我們將繼續透過結合世界級的行銷和創新以及卓越的收入、成長管理和執行來實現我們的策略,從行銷和創新開始,刷新行銷模式,整合數位生活和零售體驗,以與消費者建立聯繫獨特且個性化的方式。
The Olympic and Paralympic Games is a great example.
奧運和殘奧會就是一個很好的例子。
We featured our total beverage portfolio, large fan zone and festivals and leverage social channels to increase connections with athletes.
我們展示了我們的整體飲料組合、大型粉絲區和節日,並利用社交管道來增加與運動員的聯繫。
Many of our brands of customized packaging and our system activated tailored point-of-sale displays with customers around the world.
我們的許多客製化包裝品牌和我們的系統都為世界各地的客戶啟動了客製化的銷售點展示。
The Olympic and Paralympic Games were activated with customers across over 65 markets, featured nearly 250 influences and demonstrated positive engagement scores across our portfolio.
奧運和殘奧吸引了超過 65 個市場的客戶,具有近 250 個影響力,並在我們的產品組合中展現了積極的參與。
Topo Chico is another example in the US Topo Chico is the number one premium sparkling water brand.
Topo Chico 是美國的另一個例子。
We've driven strong consumer demand with a grassroots experiential campaign in 13 cities featuring impactful displays, collecting Topo Chico to food, music and art.
我們在 13 個城市開展了草根體驗活動,透過富有影響力的展示,收集 Topo Chico 的美食、音樂和藝術,帶動了強勁的消費者需求。
In Mexico, we're applying a similar playbook.
在墨西哥,我們正在應用類似的策略。
We recently launched Topo Chico first, Evan nationwide experiential activation with I think like analysis campaign featured connections with local artists across 69 events in five cities and was amplified through social channels.
我們最近首先推出了 Topo Chico、Evan 全國體驗式活化活動以及 I think like 分析活動,該活動在五個城市的 69 場活動中與當地藝術家建立了聯繫,並透過社交管道進行了擴展。
During the quarter, Topo Chico trademark grew volume nearly 20% globally.
本季度,Topo Chico 商標的全球銷量成長了近 20%。
Year to date, volume has increased tenfold compared to pre-acquisition levels in 2016.
今年迄今為止,成交量比 2016 年收購前的水準增加了十倍。
Our marketing and innovation agenda emphasizes a culture of acting boldly learning and not being afraid to fail and scaling successes.
我們的行銷和創新議程強調大膽學習、不怕失敗和擴大成功的文化。
Sometimes our innovations don't hit the mark as evidenced by Coca-Cola Spice, which we've discontinued.
有時我們的創新並沒有達到預期目標,可口可樂香料公司就證明了這一點,我們已經停止生產產品。
But our focus on bigger and bolder innovations is paying off.
但我們對更大、更大膽創新的關注正在得到回報。
Beauty is a multiyear success and is scaling well across obesity market and minimize zero Sugar is showing promise.
美容業取得了多年的成功,在肥胖市場上取得了良好的發展,並且最大限度地減少零糖也顯示出了希望。
Sprite chill also delivered a $50 million in retail sales of only 21 weeks in the market and has been extended to after successful limited run.
Sprite chill 上市僅 21 週就實現了 5000 萬美元的零售額,並在限量發售成功後一直延續到今天。
We also innovate for different reasons.
我們也出於不同的原因進行創新。
It can be to generate short-term plus such as the third quarter launch of the Limited Edition product, Coca-Cola zero Sugar Oreo, which is available in over 35 markets and fan bases, which is our first ever global Halloween activation and is offered in nearly 50 markets, or we might Mr. the long-term, such as our announcement of plans that view Bacardi mix with Coca-Cola in 2025 so far in 2020.
它可以產生短期收益,例如第三季推出限量版產品可口可樂零糖奧利奧,該產品在超過 35 個市場和粉絲群中銷售,這是我們首次在全球推出萬聖節活動,並提供在近50 個市場,或者我們可能會著眼長遠,例如我們宣布了2020 年迄今為止百加得與可口可樂混合的計劃。
For overall, we benefited from strong velocities on our innovation, and we're continuing to improve our innovation success rates versus prior year.
總體而言,我們受益於創新的強勁速度,與去年相比,我們正在繼續提高創新成功率。
Moving across our flywheel as system is step changing execution by fully integrating our marketing and commercial plans and investing to grow our customers' businesses.
透過充分整合我們的行銷和商業計劃以及投資來發展客戶的業務,跨越我們的飛輪系統正在逐步改變執行方式。
Leveraging data and digitally enabled solutions, including AI. is a huge opportunity, and we are integrating digital advertising with point-of-sale messaging and offering brand price pack architecture geared to customer's individual needs when executed efficiently.
利用數據和數位化解決方案,包括人工智慧。這是一個巨大的機會,我們正在將數位廣告與銷售點訊息傳遞相結合,並在有效執行時提供適合客戶個人需求的品牌價格包架構。
This approach can deliver a promising uplift in retail sales for our customers.
這種方法可以為我們的客戶帶來有希望的零售額提升。
While we're focused on taking our capabilities to the next level, we're also working towards mastering the foundations that move the needle in 2020 for our system, increased availability by investing in cold drink equipment and boosted our share of visible gold inventory across markets.
雖然我們專注於將我們的能力提升到一個新的水平,但我們也在努力掌握在2020 年為我們的系統帶來推動的基礎,透過投資冷飲設備來提高可用性,並提高我們在整個可見黃金庫存中的份額市場。
In the past 12 months, we created a $11 billion in incremental retail sales
過去 12 個月,我們創造了 110 億美元的零售增量
.
。
So customers, which is more than double the next five close this beverage companies.
因此,關閉這家飲料公司的客戶數量是接下來的五家公司的兩倍多。
Combined from 2018 to 2023, we were the leader in customer value creation for the beverage industry every year.
從 2018 年到 2023 年,我們每年都是飲料產業顧客價值創造的領導者。
To summarize, we feel good about the momentum of our business.
總而言之,我們對我們的業務勢頭感到滿意。
And as we look ahead, our external environment will continue to have many moving pieces will continue to prioritize flexibility to navigate market dynamics locally to deliver on our global objectives
展望未來,我們的外部環境將繼續有許多變化因素,我們將繼續優先考慮靈活性,以駕馭本地市場動態,以實現我們的全球目標
.
。
Thanks to the power of our portfolio, our systems, unique capabilities and the unwavering dedication of our system employees with confident we'll be able to deliver on our 2020 for guidance and longer-term priorities.
憑藉我們的產品組合、我們的系統、獨特的能力以及我們系統員工堅定不移的奉獻精神,我們有信心實現 2020 年的指導和長期優先事項。
With that, I'll turn the call over to John.
這樣,我就把電話轉給約翰。
Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝你,詹姆斯,大家早安。
Today, I'll comment on our third quarter performance, discuss the outlook for the remainder of 2024 and provide some commentary on 2025.
今天,我將評論我們第三季的業績,討論 2024 年剩餘時間的前景,並對 2025 年提供一些評論。
During the third quarter, we grew organic revenues 9%.
第三季度,我們的有機收入成長了 9%。
Unit cases declined 1%, having had a poor July but improving sequentially thereafter.
由於 7 月表現不佳,單位病例數下降 1%,但此後連續改善。
During the quarter.
本季期間。
Concentrate sales were one point behind unit cases for the quarter, driven primarily by the timing of concentrate shipments.
本季精礦銷售落後單位銷售一個百分點,這主要是由精礦出貨時間推動的。
Our price mix growth of 10% was driven by two items, approximately seven points of pricing, split somewhat evenly between normal pricing actions across our markets and intense inflationary pricing in a handful of markets experiencing currency devaluations and approximately three points of mix across our markets, which was primarily driven by stronger growth in several developed markets versus developing and emerging markets.
我們的物價組合成長10% 是由兩個項目推動的,大約七個定價點,在整個市場的正常定價行為和少數經歷貨幣貶值的市場的劇烈通膨定價之間平均分配,整個市場大約三個定價點,這主要是由幾個已開發市場相對於發展中和新興市場的強勁成長所推動的。
Excluding the impact from intense inflationary pricing, organic revenue growth during the quarter continued to be at the high end of our long-term growth algorithm.
排除劇烈通膨定價的影響,本季的有機收入成長繼續處於我們長期成長演算法的高端。
Comparable gross margin was up approximately 70 basis points and comparable operating margin was up approximately 100 basis points.
可比毛利率上升約 70 個基點,可比營業利益率上升約 100 個基點。
Both were driven by underlying expansion and the benefits from water refranchising, partially offset by the impact of currency headwinds putting it altogether
兩者都是由潛在的擴張和水務再特許權的好處推動的,但部分被貨幣逆風的影響所抵消
.
。
Third quarter comparable EPS of $0.77 was up 5% year over year, despite higher than expected 9% currency headwinds and 2% headwind from water refranchising.
第三季可比每股收益為 0.77 美元,年增 5%,儘管 9% 的貨幣阻力和 2% 的水務再特許權阻力高於預期。
During the quarter, we made a 6 billion deposits for the IRS related to our ongoing tax dispute.
本季度,我們因持續的稅務糾紛向 IRS 繳納了 60 億美元存款。
We've also filed our appeal with the 11th Circuit Court.
我們也向第 11 巡迴法院提出上訴。
We're pleased to move forward with the process.
我們很高興推進這一進程。
We will vigorously defend our position.
我們將積極捍衛我們的立場。
We believe we will prevail and we will continue to keep you updated free cash flow.
我們相信我們會取得勝利,我們將繼續向您提供最新的自由現金流。
Excluding the IRS tax litigation deposits was approximately 7.6 billion, which is down approximately 290 million versus the prior year due to higher other tax payments, higher capital expenditures and cycling some working capital benefit financially strong and our net debt leverage of 1.7 times EBITDA is below our targeted range of 2 to 2.5 times.
不包括國稅局稅務訴訟存款約為76 億,比前一年減少約2.9 億,原因是其他稅款支付增加、資本支出增加以及循環一些營運資本效益財務狀況良好,並且我們1.7 倍EBITDA 的淨債務槓桿率低於我們的目標範圍是2到2.5倍。
If you include our latest estimate of 6.1 billion related to our fare life contingent consideration payments, which we expect to make in the first half of 2025 of our expected net debt leverage would be at the low end of our target range.
如果將我們最新估計的與票價壽命或有對價付款相關的 61 億美元(我們預計將在 2025 年上半年支付)計算在內,我們的預期淨債務槓桿將處於目標範圍的低端。
As Jim has mentioned, our powerful portfolio amplifies our systems unique capabilities gives us confidence in our ability to deliver on our updated 2020 for guidance, we now expect organic revenue growth of approximately 10% and comparable currency-neutral earnings per share growth of 14% to 15%.
正如Jim 所提到的,我們強大的產品組合增強了我們系統的獨特功能,使我們對實現更新的2020 年指導的能力充滿信心,我們現在預計有機收入增長約10%,可比較的貨幣中性每股收益成長14%至 15%。
Based on current rates and our hedge positions, we now anticipate an approximate five point currency headwind to comparable net revenues and then approximately nine point currency headwind to comparable earnings per share.
根據當前匯率和我們的對沖頭寸,我們現在預計可比淨收入將面臨約 5 個點的貨幣阻力,然後可比每股收益將面臨約 9 個點的貨幣阻力。
For full year 2024, we continue to expect comparable earnings per share growth of 5% to 6% versus $2.69 in 2023 point.
對於 2024 年全年,我們繼續預計可比每股收益將成長 5% 至 6%,而 2023 年為 2.69 美元。
It is too early to provide specific guidance since on 2025.
自 2025 年起提供具體指導還為時過早。
We do want to share some considerations based on what we know today
我們確實想根據我們今天所了解的情況分享一些考慮因素
.
。
We're encouraged by our underlying performance and believe we're well positioned to deliver on our long-term growth opportunity.
我們對我們的基本業績感到鼓舞,並相信我們有能力實現長期成長機會。
We expect pricing from intense inflationary markets to moderate in 2025 and recycling the impact of currency devaluations from these markets in 2024.
我們預計,劇烈通膨市場的定價將在 2025 年放緩,並在 2024 年消除這些市場貨幣貶值的影響。
With respect to our commodity environment, we expect prices on industrial materials to remain relatively stable.
就我們的商品環境而言,我們預期工業材料的價格將保持相對穩定。
While agricultural commodities will continue to face volatility and higher prices, we will continue to invest behind our brands as we have been doing well.
儘管農產品將繼續面臨波動和價格上漲,但我們將繼續投資我們的品牌,因為我們一直表現良好。
At the same time, we will leverage a range of productivity levers to drive efficiency and effectiveness
同時,我們將利用一系列生產力槓桿來提高效率和效益
.
。
Across our P & L, we expect elevated net interest expense resulting from the deposit made related to the ongoing IRS, the first and the upcoming fair life contingent consideration payment learning currency.
在我們的損益表中,我們預計與正在進行的 IRS(第一個和即將到來的公平生活或有對價支付學習貨幣)相關的存款會導致淨利息支出增加。
If we assume current rates on our hedge positions, there would be an approximate loss single digit currency headwinds to comparable net revenues and an approximate mid single digit currency headwind to comparable earnings per share for full year 2025.
如果我們假設對沖頭寸的當前利率,則 2025 年全年可比淨收入將出現大約個位數的貨幣逆風損失,而可比每股收益將出現大約中個位數的貨幣逆風。
Many factors could impact both our currency outlook and broader business outlook between now and when we expect to provide guidance in February.
從現在到我們預計在 2 月提供指導時,許多因素可能會影響我們的貨幣前景和更廣泛的業務前景。
With our all weather strategy, we've delivered comparable earnings growth for many years now, we have numerous levers to continue to do so
憑藉我們的全天候策略,我們多年來已經實現了可比較的獲利成長,我們有許多槓桿可以繼續這樣做
.
。
So in summary, successfully executing our strategy and an ever evolving operating environment, confident in our ability to deliver on our objectives in 2024 and over the long term, we're clear on the direction we're heading into the system.
總而言之,成功執行我們的策略和不斷發展的營運環境,對我們實現 2024 年和長期目標的能力充滿信心,我們對系統的前進方向很明確。
We continue to invest with our bottling partners to drive sustainable long-term growth.
我們繼續與我們的裝瓶合作夥伴一起投資,以推動可持續的長期成長。
With that, operator, we're ready to take questions.
接線員,我們準備好回答問題了。
Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, you'll need to press star one on your telephone.
女士們先生們,要提問,您需要按電話上的星號一。
To withdraw your question, press star one.
若要撤回您的問題,請按星號一。
Again in the interest of time, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question.
再次考慮到時間問題,我們請您只回答一個問題。
If you have any additional questions, you may rejoin the queue.
如果您還有任何其他問題,可以重新加入隊列。
Our first question will come from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank.
我們的第一個問題將來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Your line is open.
您的線路已開通。
Thanks very much.
非常感謝。
Good morning, James, it sounds like our momentum sequentially improved through the third quarter from a unit case perspective, which is welcome news.
早安,詹姆斯,從單位案例的角度來看,我們的勢頭在第三季度持續改善,這是一個可喜的消息。
I guess, given that it as you look forward, how confident are you that you can return trends to positive growth in the fourth quarter?
我想,考慮到您的展望,您對第四季度恢復正成長趨勢有多大信心?
And how much of an expected improvement trajectory is within your control through some of the initiatives you detailed in the prepared remarks versus the system being essentially more dependent on I was just less adverse macro backdrop.
透過您在準備好的評論中詳細說明的一些舉措,您可以控制多少預期的改進軌跡,而係統本質上更依賴我只是不太不利的宏觀背景。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Yes.
是的。
Thanks, Steve.
謝謝,史蒂夫。
Clearly our arm, we were not as happy as we could have been in the third quarter with volume and we focused on adapting quickly and saw improvements through the quarter.
顯然,我們的手臂,我們對第三季的銷售並沒有那麼滿意,我們專注於快速適應,並在整個季度看到了進步。
So July was the bump on things improved in August versus September.
因此,與 9 月相比,7 月的情況有所改善。
I largely believe that is within our control to return to growth.
我很大程度上相信,恢復成長是在我們的控制範圍內的。
Actually the macro environment, I'm sure we'll touch on later showing a degree of resilience.
實際上,我相信我們稍後會談到宏觀環境表現出一定程度的韌性。
There are lots of puts and takes, but the degree of resilience.
有很多的投入和接受,但彈性程度。
So I think it's firmly are about getting our flywheel of the marketing, the innovation, the price pack and the execution of the system and that we can get back to growth, which is very much implicit in our algorithm and our expectations going forward.
所以我認為這絕對是為了讓我們的行銷、創新、價格包和系統執行的飛輪,我們可以恢復成長,這在我們的演算法和我們未來的期望中非常隱含。
It through the fourth quarter into 2025.
從第四季一直到 2025 年。
Our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian of Morgan Stanley.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的達拉·莫森尼安。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Your line is open.
您的線路已開通。
Hi, good morning.
嗨,早安。
Could I just wanted to focus on the mix component within price mix?
我是否只想專注於價格組合中的組合成分?
You mentioned it was 3% in the quarter.
你提到這個季度是 3%。
Great resolve.
偉大的決心。
How sustainable is that as you look going forward out to 2025?
展望 2025 年,這種情況的可持續性如何?
And B, can you talk about some of the key efforts on that front?
B,您能談談在這方面所做的一些關鍵努力嗎?
Yes, let me let me break the mix compile.
是的,讓我來打破混合編譯。
I mean, mix has got a lot of different components in it.
我的意思是,混合中有很多不同的成分。
Arm Country Canada grew channel affordability offering, especially in the third quarter.
Arm Country Canada 增加了通路可負擔性產品,尤其是在第三季。
Are there are a couple of pieces of mix that I wanted to call out.
有沒有一些我想指出的混音片段?
one, which I see is enduring and ongoing and Wal-Mart chassis as more temporary, ensuring an ongoing piece is, of course, we're focused on not just are driving the growth of affordability options, whether they be smaller packages, smaller multipacks, a better entry price points, all refillables, depending on where you are in the world as a key part, responding to those consumers that are under the disposable income pressure, which tends to be a headwind, but also farming focusing on premium premium segments, whether that be premium orders of ally for or some of the coke SKUs are up to get the mix to be up.
一個,我認為這是持久和持續的,而沃爾瑪底盤則更為臨時,確保持續的產品當然,我們關注的不僅僅是推動可負擔性選擇的增長,無論它們是更小的包裝,更小的多件裝,更好的入門價格點,所有可再填充,取決於您作為關鍵部分在世界上的哪個位置,回應那些面臨可支配收入壓力的消費者,這往往是一種逆風,但也專注於高端細分市場,無論是盟友的優質訂單還是一些可樂 SKU 都將提高組合的品質。
And so the more enduring piece is that ongoing management of affordable Altium premiumization is to drive our mix.
因此,更持久的一點是,對實惠的 Altium 高端化的持續管理將推動我們的產品組合。
The bidders was more temporary, which is relatively atypical in the last number of years.
競標者都是臨時性的,這在過去幾年中相對不典型。
Remember that the average price in emerging markets is lower than the average price in the developed economies.
請記住,新興市場的平均價格低於已開發經濟體的平均價格。
Typically speaking, the emerging markets grow faster.
一般來說,新興市場成長更快。
So mechanically they are a head wind in price mix because they obviously have a low-priced in this quarter.
因此,從機械上講,它們是價格組合的逆風,因為它們在本季的價格顯然較低。
A typically the emerging markets have grown slower or have declined relative to the major economies
通常,相對於主要經濟體,新興市場的成長速度較慢或有所下降
.
。
Us, Europe, Japan, Australia.
美國、歐洲、日本、澳洲。
So that actually has a kind of automatic stabilizer effect, which is that it makes price mix go up.
因此,這實際上具有一種自動穩定器效應,即它使價格組合上漲。
And of course, we're expecting as we go through the fourth quarter into next year to go to our more normal construct, where we'll see decent results in the developed economies, these and faster growth in the emerging markets.
當然,我們預計,從第四季度到明年,我們將進入更正常的結構,我們將看到已開發經濟體取得良好的業績,並看到新興市場的更快成長。
And that will then have a normal shape, more normal checked with volume and a more normal shape to as price mix.
然後,這將具有正常的形狀,更正常的成交量檢查和更正常的價格組合形狀。
I think we feel good about where this is likely to go.
我認為我們對這可能的發展方向感到滿意。
Our Next, please.
我們的下一位,請。
Your line is open.
您的線路已開通。
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks.
謝謝。
And I would love to hear a bit more about those and adapted quickly paydowns.
我很想聽到更多關於這些的信息,並迅速調整付款。
Janet, you kind of stuff to sell believing in our control and they're not there, right?
珍妮特,你是那種相信我們能控制的東西,但他們卻不在那裡,對吧?
So I just would love if we could get some more maybe tangible examples of what you're doing to adapt quickly, and that is having and you're able to execute quickly and had a quick payback and hence you teased the macro, let's get your view on and in out the macro environment as well.
所以我只是希望我們能得到一些更多可能切實的例子來說明你正在做什麼來快速適應,那就是你能夠快速執行並獲得快速回報,因此你嘲笑了宏觀,讓我們得到您對宏觀環境的看法。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Sure.
當然。
I mean, I don't think my view on the macro environment is going to take us to file is basically our two big salt one at a global level of the consumer and the economies.
我的意思是,我認為我對宏觀環境的看法不會讓我們提交基本上是我們在全球層面的消費者和經濟的兩大鹽。
And then the IMF report came out yesterday is relatively resilient and relatively stable on a global basis.
然後昨天發布的國際貨幣基金組織報告在全球範圍內相對具有彈性和相對穩定。
Clearly, there are a set of puts and takes between geographies between income levels.
顯然,不同收入水平之間存在一系列的看跌期權和賣出期權。
But Todd, the macros in aggregate are some of us shifting set of puts and takes, but resilience in aggregates.
但是托德,總體而言,宏觀是我們中一些人改變看跌期權的組合,但總體上具有彈性。
Exactly how that will turn out.
結果到底如何。
I'm not sure next year, probably different Paulson takes, but again, resilience our overall our basis.
我不確定明年,保爾森可能會採取不同的做法,但同樣,韌性是我們整體基礎的基礎。
In terms of the tangible examples, I mean, it's a question, well, affordability like are we pressing our?
就具體的例子而言,我的意思是,這是一個問題,嗯,負擔能力就像我們是否在施加壓力?
We pressed hard on making the availability of certain affordable options are even more expansive.
我們努力讓某些負擔得起的選擇變得更加廣泛。
How do we brought bringing forward, for example, investments in cold drink equipment.
例如,我們如何提出冷飲設備的投資。
So but we can't upscale the availability of coal product, remembering, for example, that the Southern Hemisphere is just about to go into Osama.
因此,我們無法提高煤炭產品的供應量,例如,記住南半球即將進入奧薩馬。
Can we get further foster our in terms of doing that, which will then tend to go create drive more volume growth?
我們能否進一步加強這方面的工作,進而推動更多的銷售成長?
Are we applying the right adjustments to the mix of them, marketing messaging?
我們是否對它們的組合、行銷訊息進行了正確的調整?
And how do we tweak that now that we have a more agile, our marketing model upon coping with the ongoing transformation, we are able to adapt the messaging.
既然我們有了更靈活的行銷模式來應對持續的轉型,我們該如何調整,我們就能夠調整訊息傳遞。
So they really get in there and get those things.
所以他們真的進入那裡並得到那些東西。
And then in some parts of the world, it's about, you know, adapting the messaging to the situation.
然後在世界的某些地方,你知道,要根據具體情況調整訊息傳遞。
I mean, some countries are, for example, whether the economics are very poor.
我的意思是,比如說有些國家的經濟是否很差。
It's not so much about the marketing, it's more about the availability and the entry of the entry price was we've always got to work with our local bottlers to drive what's the right system of So and really fine tune our relevance with the consumers and retailers in that country in this moment.
這與行銷無關,更多的是關於可用性和入門價格的輸入,我們總是與當地的裝瓶商合作,推動什麼是正確的系統,並真正微調我們與消費者的相關性,此時該國家的零售商。
Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America.
我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Your line is open.
您的線路已開通。
Thanks, operator.
謝謝,接線生。
Good morning, James.
早安,詹姆斯。
Good morning, John
早安,約翰
.
。
I guess my question about North America on and, you know, our observation through this quarter over the summer was just, I guess, a bit of softness overall interest discretionary spending.
我想我對北美的問題是,你知道,我們在夏季本季的觀察只是,我想,整體利息可自由支配支出有點疲軟。
So that kind of expressed in small format stores, convenience and gas, I think also maybe a bit in foodservice.
因此,這種表現在小型商店、便利設施和天然氣中,我認為在餐飲服務中也可能有一點。
So can you just maybe talk to that on?
那你能談談這個嗎?
Are you seeing the same thing?
你看到同樣的事情了嗎?
And is there maybe just a little bit of a recession, if you will, on impulse purchases right now on?
如果你願意的話,現在的衝動購買是否可能會出現一點衰退?
And if so, just what do you think changes that?
如果是這樣,您認為是什麼改變了這一點?
I think it's I honestly, I think, is more of a more of a mix like this.
老實說,我認為我更像是這樣的混合體。
Clearly part of the human landscape workers where there's a lot of pressure on disposable income.
顯然,人文景觀工作者的一部分可支配收入面臨很大壓力。
And if you look, I mean, if trends, whether you want to take measures of consumer confidence will measure the consumer sentiment, I know that sounds like the same thing, but the point ending which source you look at what's going, what was going up ones going down so that there's a mixed bag
如果你看,我的意思是,如果趨勢,你是否想採取消費者信心的衡量標準來衡量消費者情緒,我知道這聽起來像是同一件事,但最後一點是你看看正在發生什麼,發生了什麼向上的向下的,所以有一個混合包
.
。
I would say there is some softness in aggregates inputs, but this is very marginal in the total industry industry like the beverage industry is still pretty robust as on both growth in total dollars.
我想說的是,整體投入存在一些疲軟,但這在整個行業中是非常微不足道的,例如飲料行業在總美元增長方面仍然相當強勁。
Having said that, we talked about in previous quarters here, there's a set of consumers exhibiting value-seeking behavior, whether they're looking for combo deals when they're in away-from-home, particularly quick service restaurants, weather, they're looking for going on getting lower price point.
話雖如此,我們在前幾個季度討論過,有一群消費者表現出價值追求行為,他們是否在外出時尋找組合優惠,特別是快餐店、天氣、他們正在尋找更低的價格點。
Our purchases of our beverages with us a smaller and smaller pack size or a smaller number of plaques in a multi-pack that's out there.
我們購買的飲料的包裝尺寸越來越小,或者多包裝中的牌匾數量越來越少。
But there's just this is also saw strong purchasing power in all those segments of the marketplace, which is somewhat also offsetting, I mean, weakness the strong momentum, for example, in fair life arm
但在市場的所有這些細分市場中也看到了強勁的購買力,這在某種程度上也抵消了強勁勢頭的減弱,例如在公平生活領域
.
。
But net-net, I think that the US marketplace has remained pretty resilient.
但我認為美國市場仍然相當有彈性。
I've given what has given the China trajectory macroeconomically speaking that we've come through.
我已經給了我們所經歷的宏觀經濟發展軌跡。
Our next question comes from Chris Harris from Wells Fargo.
我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的克里斯哈里斯。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Your line is open.
您的線路已開通。
Hey, good morning, everyone.
嘿,大家早安。
And so on.
等等。
Yes, it is been somewhat dress, but I think I maybe be a little bit more specific, is it started off a bit pre-market on what appears to be around 2025 earnings growth, given your outlook for FX and net interest expense going into next year?
是的,這有點裝扮,但我想我可能更具體一點,考慮到您對外匯和淨利息支出的展望,它是在 2025 年左右的盈利增長的上市前開始的嗎?
I think the lessons from this year and really in recent years has been your ability to overcome the substantial headwinds and other headwinds and still deliver on reported EPS growth.
我認為今年以及近年來的教訓是你們有能力克服巨大的阻力和其他阻力,並仍然實現報告的每股盈餘成長。
Johnny, both expressed some confidence in prepared remarks on innovation delivering against longer term targets.
強尼和強尼都對準備好的創新實現長期目標的演講表示信心。
So I guess can you just dumb touch on maybe some of the lessons of time 24 areas, which really allowed you to overcome what was the substantial FX headwind this year and still deliver your reported earnings objective, whether pricing, RGM, innovation, whatever that may be and what feels durable going into next year?
所以我想你能不能簡單地講一下Time 24 領域的一些經驗教訓,這些經驗教訓確實讓你克服了今年巨大的外匯逆風,並且仍然實現了你報告的盈利目標,無論是定價、RGM、創新,等等。
I know you've touched on it, but just trying to get down to what's real driving the stock today.
我知道你已經談到了這個問題,但只是想弄清楚今天推動該股的真正因素是什麼。
And then maybe importantly, then I'm done, but just the areas where you're you have a bit more of a heightened focus or sense of things maybe slowing in Mexico, India and some of these lingering load per Dan issues in the Middle East, Asia, it comes to mind.
然後也許重要的是,然後我就完成了,但只是在你所在的地區,你有更多的注意力或感覺,墨西哥、印度的事情可能會放緩,而中間的丹問題中的一些揮之不去不去的負擔我想到了東亞、亞洲。
So basically, just you've got momentum intake and frankly, we've headwinds next year, but the environment is also evolving.
所以基本上,只要你有動力攝入,坦白說,明年我們會遇到阻力,但環境也在不斷變化。
And just maybe you'd like to put a little bit of refundable on that.
也許您想為此支付一點退款的費用。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Sure, Chris
當然,克里斯
.
。
And I think you've got in this year's price for the longest questions from me, LMA, I talked about it's not let me start and then I'll have John.
我想你已經得到了今年我提出的最長問題的價格,LMA,我談到了這不是讓我開始,然後我會請約翰。
I'd probably want to weigh into our we have for our number of years and very deliberately chose the expression, the all-weather strategy because we have all lived.
我可能想權衡我們已經有多少年了,並且非常謹慎地選擇了全天候策略這一表達方式,因為我們都生活過。
We've been through a lot all bear a typical years in the last year, five, seven years.
去年,五年,七年,我們經歷了很多,都是典型的年份。
And we wanted to make the point by calling in Norway, the strategy that we cannot predict like what's going to happen next year.
我們想透過召集挪威來表明這一點,我們無法預測明年會發生什麼。
We know some elements and John will talk about them.
我們知道一些元素,約翰會談論它們。
But there are many other things are going to happen, but we're going to pull the levers to get there and drive the business forward
但還有很多其他事情將會發生,但我們將拉動槓桿來實現這一目標並推動業務向前發展
.
。
Final lever on top line at the end of the top of the algorithm and underlying EPS growth.
演算法頂部末端的最終槓桿和基本每股收益成長。
But a couple of things that I think are worth noting about 2024 and its implications into 25.
但我認為關於 2024 年及其對 25 年的影響有幾件事值得注意。
There's a difference are particularly if we still I mean, firstly, FX, as you said, the mid-single digit coal for next year is less than it is this year.
存在差異,特別是如果我們仍然是我的意思,首先是外匯,正如您所說,明年的中個位數煤炭價格低於今年。
Although obviously inexorably homing from the let's call them the G. 10 economies, which are, let's call lessening Europe.
儘管顯然不可避免地來自讓我們稱之為G.10經濟體,我們稱之為縮小的歐洲。
This is the simplest example.
這是最簡單的例子。
It is a big devaluation of the euro does not likely to be a lot of pass through inflation in the short term in the European marketplace.
歐元大幅貶值不太可能在短期內大量傳導歐洲市場的通膨。
And that's going to be much harder for us to deal with, though not impossible.
這對我們來說將更加難以應對,儘管並非不可能。
If there's a big devaluation in an emerging market, you tend to get more immediate pass through of the inflation.
如果新興市場出現大幅貶值,通膨往往會更直接傳導。
And so you can see that in 2024 in 2020 for almost all the devaluation of FX headwind is a consequence of the value valuations in the emerging markets.
所以你可以看到,2024 年和 2020 年幾乎所有的外匯貶值逆風都是新興市場價值估值的結果。
And actually the G. 10 basket is broadly flat.
事實上,G.10 籃子基本上是平的。
I believe.
我相信。
And so that you do have a is it coming from the emerging markets, there's a little more of a link back to above normal pricing on the top line, which again, you see in the year to date in 2024.
所以你確實知道它是否來自新興市場,在頂線上有更多與高於正常定價的聯繫,你在 2024 年迄今為止的一年中再次看到了這一點。
So there's a piece of next year where we and John, I'll get into it where you got to some extent, CG. 10 as different to the emerging markets and sodium as some of the emerging markets of is linked to the top line.
所以明年有一個片段,我們和約翰,我會在某種程度上涉及 CG。 10 與新興市場不同,某些新興市場的鈉與營收掛鉤。
And then obviously within that, we have to manage each of the of the marketplace because at this high inflation are likely to be a big push on affordability and a big shift in marketing and innovation mix.
顯然,在這之中,我們必須管理每個市場,因為在如此高的通膨率下,可能會極大地推動人們的承受能力,並導致行銷和創新組合的重大轉變。
So there's a set of kind of framework car approaches depending on what sort of our problem is occurring in the marketplace.
因此,根據市場上出現的問題類型,有一套框架汽車方法。
But again, let me let me finish my thought and then hand of this.
但同樣,讓我先完成我的想法,然後再做這件事。
In the end, we're pursuing all whether the strategy, some years, the headwinds will be greater than others, but we're going to pursue a strategy.
最後,我們所追求的一切是否是戰略,有些年份,阻力會比其他年份更大,但我們將追求戰略。
I get all of the line in terms of driving that through drive some some growth.
我完全理解透過推動一些成長來推動這一點。
And there's a lot of can still happen before next year.
明年之前還有很多事情可能發生。
It will come with a complete picture in fabric
它將附有一張完整的織物圖片
.
。
John, do you want to add?
約翰,你想補充一下嗎?
Maybe, Chris, if I could touch upon some of the lessons that we've learned, not just this year, but really over the last two years.
克里斯,也許我可以談談我們學到的一些教訓,不僅是今年,而且是過去兩年的教訓。
First, I'd say is it's really important to the second 10 of all of this is to stay very focused on investing the right way behind our brands.
首先,我想說的是,對於所有這一切中的後 10 個來說,非常重要的是要非常專注於以正確的方式投資我們的品牌。
And that is something we will continue to do.
這是我們將繼續做的事情。
I think secondly, in the last couple of years, having an even sharper understanding as to where your profit drivers are underneath the global portfolio as a country, Kashagan level and then making sure that were over allocating resources to support those larger profit pools, boards and the basis of the business.
其次,我認為,在過去的幾年裡,對作為一個國家、卡沙甘層面的全球投資組合的利潤驅動因素有了更清晰的了解,然後確保過度分配資源來支持那些更大的利潤池、董事會以及業務的基礎。
And as we think about growth going forward is really important and doing this in partnership with our bottlers around the world.
當我們考慮未來的成長時,與世界各地的裝瓶商合作是非常重要的。
And we've seen that they've been a big source of the momentum over the last couple of year
我們已經看到它們是過去幾年勢頭的重要來源
s.
s。
I think the third area that I was I would highlight I noted that topic across many companies going into 2025 is that you can never take your foot off the productivity accelerator.
我認為我要強調的第三個領域是,我注意到許多公司在進入 2025 年時都面臨的一個主題是,你永遠不能把腳從生產力加速器上移開。
And in that context, I think the learning is that you've got to build that into your anterior overall way of doing business as opposed to have it as a end-of-year projects that you need to come kind of deliver something in the next six to 12 weeks to serve the quarter.
在這種情況下,我認為學到的是,你必須將其納入你之前的整體經營方式中,而不是把它作為一個年終項目,你需要在年底交付一些東西。為該季度提供服務。
So we've got a lot of levers.
所以我們有很多槓桿。
We've talked about it in the past that are available to us, whether it's through the marketing investment lined, our operating investment line, operating expense, investment lines or through our supply chain.
我們過去已經討論過我們可以利用的資源,無論是透過行銷投資線、我們的營運投資線、營運費用、投資線或透過我們的供應鏈。
And we will continue to add to go after the opportunities that come at us.
我們將繼續增加機會,抓住我們遇到的機會。
And then so when you take all of those together, I think that's what we see creating that flywheel of growth on the top line and then the ability to sustain and expand margins turn to the P&L from there.
然後,當你把所有這些放在一起時,我認為這就是我們所看到的在營收上創造飛輪成長的原因,然後維持和擴大利潤率的能力從那裡轉向損益表。
Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs.
我們的下一個問題來自高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Your line is open
您的線路已開通
.
。
All right.
好的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Good morning.
早安.
Actually wanted to circle back to North America.
其實很想繞回北美。
Organic sales growth is very strong at 12%, which in fact most of us by surprise and growth was primarily driven by the double digit price m
有機銷售成長非常強勁,達到 12%,事實上,我們大多數人都感到驚訝,成長主要是由兩位數的價格推動的
ix.
九.
So you're hoping for a little bit more color behind that and can rate versus next in the market and then ultimately how sustainable that is?
所以你希望這背後有更多的色彩,並且可以與市場上的下一個進行比較,然後最終它的可持續性如何?
And then I guess, back-end, I'd be curious to hear you believe is nearly reached a point where you pushed too far in terms of pricing?
然後我想,在後端,我很想聽聽您認為您在定價方面已經接近達到了過高的地步?
And if so, how will you modify your pricing strategy?
如果是這樣,您將如何修改定價策略?
Our RGM Cape, are those going forward?
我們的 RGM Cape,那些還在繼續嗎?
And James, you did touch on that.
詹姆斯,你確實談到了這一點。
Certainly a greater focus on affordability for maybe an example.
當然,也許可以舉個例子,更重視負擔能力。
I can't really be helpful to hear.
我真的幫不上什麼忙。
Thanks so much.
非常感謝。
Sure I follow up.
當然我會跟進。
Firstly, in North America, Q3, the price mix hospital in round numbers, half of its price and half of it's mix.
首先,在北美,第三季度,醫院的價格組合為整數,價格的一半和組合的一半。
So price closer to rate
所以價格更接近利率
.
。
The mix is being driven by a part of the day prior, some of the kind of lesser focus on case pack water, but a heavy investment, the time behind Browse, Lightfair life, Topo Chico, some of the nutrition staff, Coca-Cola, and those tend to be mix positive.
這種混合是由前一天的一部分推動的,其中一些不太關注盒裝水,但需要大量投資,背後的時間是 Browse、Lightfair life、Topo Chico、一些營養人員、可口可樂,而這些往往是正混合的。
So there's clearly a cancer is actually John just talked about it really being choiceful about where we invest behind and which brands in which countries and channels are not coming through in North America, which is why you got about half of that coming from mix and half of it coming from price rate.
因此,顯然有一個癌症實際上是約翰剛剛談到的,它確實對我們在哪裡投資以及哪些品牌在哪些國家和渠道在北美沒有通過而進行了選擇,這就是為什麼你得到的大約一半來自混合和一半其中來自價格率。
And clearly, there's a there's a balance that with some of the affordability actions we're doing, but that's the basic setup.
顯然,我們正在採取的一些負擔能力行動之間存在著平衡,但這是基本設定。
And if we just home in all price for a second, you're getting roughly half of that in price.
如果我們暫時算一下所有價格,你得到的價格大約是這個價格的一半。
And that then starts to look a lot like the trajectory of CPI. that has been coming down
然後這開始看起來很像 CPI 的軌跡。一直在下降
.
。
And what we see going forward is they'll continue to be our inflation in the input costs are whether that be labor, particularly some of the agricultural commodities, some of the packaging, our costs as well.
我們未來看到的是,投入成本將繼續上漲,無論是勞動力,特別是一些農產品,一些包裝,以及我們的成本。
Our are still going to be increasing in cost, although at a lower rate.
我們的成本仍將增加,儘管速度較低。
So again, we see us heading towards a more normalized level of pricing going into next year.
因此,我們再次看到明年的定價將走向更正常化的水平。
I kind of landing landing in a more normal zone as kind of on some of that tracks down as kind of similar rates to CPI.
我有點著陸在一個更正常的區域,因為其中一些追蹤的比率與 CPI 類似。
Of course, we continue to be very choiceful about where we invest for affordability options and where we invest for premiumization is also I'm not sure I think mix will I always be four or five points are, but certainly we would look for continued growth in the North American business.
當然,我們在投資可承受性選項和投資高端化方面仍然非常有選擇,我也不確定我認為混合總是四、五個點,但我們肯定會尋求持續成長在北美業務中。
I.
我。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Our next question comes from Felipe for learning from Citi.
我們的下一個問題來自 Felipe,向花旗學習。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Your line is open
您的線路已開通
.
。
Hey, good morning, everyone.
嘿,大家早安。
Tom, I wanted to ask on the margin outlook going forward.
湯姆,我想問未來的利潤前景。
This year you realize very strong gross margin operating margin expansion.
今年,您實現了非常強勁的毛利率、營業利潤率擴張。
A lot of in that are driven by the refranchising activity with the underlying kind of being offset by our currency hedg
其中許多是由再特許經營活動推動的,而潛在的類型被我們的貨幣對沖所抵消
es.
es.
Think about going forward?
考慮一下繼續前進嗎?
And you guys both talked about leverage on the productivity line and commodity.
你們都談到了生產力線和商品的槓桿作用。
Can you talk us through like the balance of the levers for margin expansion into next year?
能否向我們介紹明年利潤率擴張的槓桿平衡?
And anything we should be we should be thinking about, I'm assuming normal weather in franchising activity.
我們應該考慮的任何事情,我假設特許經營活動天氣正常。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Sure.
當然。
Thanks for the q
謝謝你的q
uestion.
問題。
At first of all, it's a it's a huge area of focus and has been we're currently tracking to have our highest gross margin levels since since pre-COVID, and expect that to the underlying expansion to continue.
首先,這是一個巨大的關注領域,我們目前正在追蹤自新冠疫情爆發以來毛利率水平的最高水平,並預計潛在的擴張將繼續下去。
Notwithstanding the offsets that you just mentioned for 25, I worry as weak as we laid out in the in the strip, some of the considerations for 25 is the more normalized pricing environment?
儘管您剛才提到了 25 的抵消,但我擔心與我們在條帶中列出的一樣弱,25 的一些考慮因素是更正常化的定價環境?
James touched upon that as we would continue to look to offset the FX headwinds with with some underlying expansion and to our RGM and and cost efficiency ef
詹姆斯談到了這一點,因為我們將繼續尋求透過一些潛在的擴張以及我們的 RGM 和成本效率來抵消外匯不利因素
forts.
堡壘。
I've highlighted some of the challenges we have on the agricultural commodities front, and we see that being part of the just the equation we need to manage.
我強調了我們在農產品方面面臨的一些挑戰,我們認為這是我們需要管理的問題的一部分。
We are, as I said earlier, locking us a number of levers under both the revenue and the cost lines are our ongoing
正如我之前所說,我們在收入和成本線下鎖定了一些槓桿,這是我們正在進行的
ele
埃勒
vatio
瓦蒂奧
n.
名詞
On the RCM front, the optimization of on the promotional front, um, within the innovation space, things like simplification of product specs, for example, can free up a lot of dollars to where we have been working with our very diverse supplier base across the world, not only for for certainty of supply, which is a which is a huge priority in a number of markets, but overtime to to leverage the scale of the system Metro.
在 RCM 方面,促銷方面的優化,嗯,在創新領域內,例如產品規格的簡化,可以節省大量資金,讓我們能夠與我們非常多元化的供應商群體合作。的確定性(這在許多市場中是一個巨大的優先事項),而且還需要加班加點地利用地鐵系統的規模。
So there's still a lot of a lot of opportunity and it's not any one big thing that's going to make or break the numbers.
因此,仍然存在著許多很多的機會,而且並不是任何一件大事能夠創造或打破這些數字。
But I think it's our continued ability to bring all of these levers to play that that's going to make a difference.
但我認為,我們持續發揮所有這些槓桿作用的能力才會產生影響。
And I think that's represented in the consideration set to be.
我認為這已體現在考慮因素中。
So we framed for 2025.
所以我們設定了 2025 年的目標。
Great.
偉大的。
Thank y
謝謝你
ou.
歐。
Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Your line is ope
您的線路已開通
n.
名詞
Thank you and good morning, everyone on Tea
謝謝大家,大家早安
m.
米。
John, you mentioned that volumes improved as you exit the quarter, but the implied organic sales growth for Q4 even after you raised, is closer to, I believe, 6% from 9% in Q. three, if my math is correct and you have the extra two days and I'm hoping to see if you can help us bridge the most recent trends and how to think about Q4.
約翰,你提到,隨著你退出本季度,銷量有所改善,但即使在你籌集資金之後,第四季度的隱含有機銷售增長,我相信,也更接近第三季度9% 的6% ,如果我的數學是正確的,而你還有額外的兩天時間,我希望看看您是否可以幫助我們了解最新趨勢以及如何思考第四季度。
And separately, just a clarification and there are some recent news on potential ban, the CFTST. and snacks in schools in Mexico.
另外,只是澄清一下,最近有一些關於潛在禁令的消息,即 CFTST。以及墨西哥學校的零食。
I know that historically the impact of the sugar tax and price not relevant at all, but what I just wanted to hear on how you're positioning case the spend materializes.
我知道從歷史上看,糖稅和價格的影響根本不相關,但我只是想聽聽你們如何定位支出的情況。
Thank you
謝謝
.
。
Let me go in reverse order.
讓我按照相反的順序走。
I'm reading the news.
我正在讀新聞。
Imagine I'm not sure it's happened yet, but will we largely sell a no sugar port set of portfolios of recommendation towards schools?
想像一下,我不確定這是否已經發生,但我們會向學校出售一套無糖的推薦組合嗎?
And that's part of our global approach.
這是我們全球策略的一部分。
I'm not sure how that matters are not sure how that's going to impact the business.
我不確定這有多重要,也不確定這將如何影響業務。
I would imagine that's going to be very, very small
我想那會非常非常小
.
。
If at all in terms of Q4 and let's arm and our own pocket and say, look, part of what is important here is what is going to be the flow through from some of these high inflation marketplaces
如果就第四季而言,讓我們拿出自己的口袋來說,看,這裡重要的一部分是來自這些高通膨市場的流量
.
。
If you take out the impact of high inflation has clearly been slowing down of lesser impact as we've gone through the year.
如果剔除高通膨的影響,今年以來,高通膨的影響顯然已經放緩,甚至影響較小。
And so you're going to see potentially less impact in the fourth quarter from that, um, in terms of where we're going in terms of CSC's, yes, clearly, there's going to be our pickup in terms of plus, um, in terms of inventory, sorry, I'm and I'm I don't think you quite I got to the right number yet, but I think is probably implicitly a little higher, but we can certainly follow up on tha
因此,你會看到第四季度的影響可能會較小,嗯,就我們在 CSC 方面的發展而言,是的,顯然,我們的附加價值將會上升,嗯,就庫存而言,抱歉,我認為你還沒有得到正確的數字,但我認為可能隱含地更高一些,但我們當然可以跟進
t.
t。
Well, I think it's going to be a strong outlook because it at the end of the day, my in my simple way of thinking about things, if you take out all the moving pieces in the craziness of what goes on at the end of the day, if I take out the high inflation markets out of the price mix in Q three, you get six volume was minus one, that's fin
好吧,我認為這將是一個強大的前景,因為最終,我以我簡單的方式思考事情,如果你在最後發生的瘋狂事情中剔除所有移動的部分一天,如果我從第三季度的價格組合中剔除高通膨市場,你會得到6 個交易量為負1,這就是fin
e.
e.
That's right in the range of the top end of our growth algorithm, the same as it has been each quarter so far this year and in previous years.
這正好在我們成長演算法的上限範圍內,與今年迄今為止每個季度和往年的情況相同。
And if you just want to lock it in simple terms, excluding high inflation, I'm I'm expecting us to say buying at the top end of our long-term growth algorithm.
如果你只是想用簡單的術語鎖定它,排除高通膨,我希望我們會說在長期成長演算法的頂端購買。
Thank you.
謝謝。
And our next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala from Jefferies.
我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kaumil Gajrawala。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Your line is op
您的線路已開通
en.
en.
I am going to go after the award for the shortest question since the news or so.
我將爭奪自新聞發布以來最短問題的獎項。
So new on with McDonald's and potential contamination and continuing your largest customer.
因此,麥當勞是新的,可能存在污染,並繼續您最大的客戶。
Is there anything we should know about how it impacts your
關於它如何影響您,有什麼我們應該知道的嗎?
business?
商業?
I'm curious if you got the crucial question that look, I think, obviously, hearts go out of the people have been affected by the contamination from certainly where big partner, McDonald's, our big partner of ours, we will will be helping them in any way we can as they work through our whatever's happening he
我很好奇你是否有一個關鍵問題,我認為,顯然,人們的心受到了污染的影響,我們的大合作夥伴麥當勞,我們的大合作夥伴,我們將幫助他們我們可以以任何方式,因為他們正在努力解決我們發生的任何事情
r
r
e.
e.
But clearly the inflammation as seen on the ground as it as it relates to those of us further away from the situation, certainly when one looks at what's in the media so far in terms of the states that have been affected, I would say at this stage, it's not going to be a large, significant impact to the business.
但顯然,實地看到的炎症,因為它與我們這些遠離局勢的人有關,當然,當人們看看迄今為止媒體上關於受到影響的州的報道時,我會說階段,這不會對業務產生重大影響。
Our next question kind of having clobbered Argentina and have a car.
我們的下一個問題是擊敗阿根廷並擁有一輛車。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Your line is open
您的線路已開通
.
。
Great.
偉大的。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
And you're on CSD business in the US, it is performing quite a bit better than it has then been a number of years ago.
你在美國從事 CSD 業務,它的表現比幾年前好得多。
And I'd like to kind of get your sense of the drivers on that.
我想了解您對這方面驅動因素的看法。
Is it zero sugar products high?
零糖產品高嗎?
Is it better on your engagement with younger drink
喝年輕的飲料對你的參與是否更好
ers?
呃?
Is it market share gains?
是市場佔有率的成長嗎?
And then more specifically, this year are some of the data that we're looking at.
更具體地說,今年是我們正在研究的一些數據。
It seems to suggest that CSDs are we taking market share from energy drink.
這似乎表明碳酸飲料正在從能量飲料中奪取市場份額。
So lots of pieces there, but love to get your assessment of what's going on.
那裡有很多東西,但很想聽聽您對正在發生的事情的評估。
Thank yo
謝謝你
u.
u。
Yes, thanks to our Q2.
是的,感謝我們的第二季。
While, firstly, I'm tempted to go what's driving the growth of the soft drinks as all of the above bridal relevance.
首先,我很想探討一下推動軟性飲料成長的因素,因為上述所有因素都與婚禮有關。
I think the North America team have done a good job across the portfolio to refarm.
我認為北美團隊在整個投資組合重整方面做得很好。
If you look at the third quarter of coke, trademark grew volumetrically speaking at the other, the other sparkling beverages grew volumetrically speaking
如果你看一下第三季的可樂,商標的銷售成長,其他氣泡飲料的銷售成長
.
。
I mean within the Coke trademark Coke original was broadly with broadly flat and Coke zero was double digit growth and even Diet Coke growth from o
我的意思是,在可口可樂商標中,可口可樂原版大致持平,可口可樂零是兩位數的成長,甚至健怡可樂也從 o 開始成長。
ur.
你。
So I think there's been a strong leveraging of the ongoing marketing transformation pad with and improving set of execution by the bottling system.
因此,我認為,裝瓶系統對正在進行的營銷轉型和改進的執行設置有了強有力的利用。
Work on the on a jam and the pack mix and execution are in place that are bringing bringing greater strength are to the sparkling beverage business in North Ame
果醬、包裝組合和執行方面的工作已經到位,這為北美的起泡飲料業務帶來了更大的力量
rica.
黎加。
It's certainly been the cumulation of many quarters of work and it's time to show through both both when you look at the third quarter and or and also, you know if you were to look at it as an improving trend through the year.
這當然是許多季度工作的積累,現在是時候通過第三季度和/或以及,你知道是否將其視為全年的改善趨勢。
Our next question comes from Charlie hub and that burn.
我們的下一個問題來自查理中心和燃燒。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Your line is o
你的線路是o
pen.
筆。
Yes.
是的。
James Durran, room Vertrue.
詹姆斯·杜蘭,Vertrue 房間。
Well, I'd like to dig into the unit case volumes down 1% in Q3, but more, ple
好吧,我想深入研究第三季單位箱量下降了 1%,但更多,請
ase.
酶。
And if you could maybe just quantify you contextualize the consumer hesitancy that essentially in Q three, was it about the same as Q2 vertical was?
如果您可以量化第三季消費者猶豫的情況,那麼它與第二季的垂直情況大致相同嗎?
And then also some of the impacts from the portfolio trimming you're doing.
然後還有您正在進行的投資組合調整帶來的一些影響。
I'm just trying to get a sense of the clean volume performance in Q3.
我只是想了解第三季的乾淨卷性能。
And then just building on that, maybe you could touch a bit more on trademark Coke and Coke zero, accelerating to 11% constant change that less incremental and not coming from Coke Classic banks.
然後在此基礎上,也許你可以更多地接觸商標可口可樂和可口可樂零,加速到 11% 的恆定變化,增量較少,而且不是來自可口可樂經典銀行。
And we can say that we can break down the court, the volume lots of different wa
我們可以說我們可以打破球場,體積有很多不同的瓦
ys.
是的。
First and most important piece of the puzzle I sort of mentioned it earlier is the relatively a typical makeup of the volume in Q three are.
我之前提到的第一個也是最重要的難題是第三個問題中捲的相對典型的構成。
In other words, there was actually good performance of our from volume in volume terms across the developed economi
換句話說,從數量上看,我們在已開發經濟體中實際上表現良好
es.
es.
So North America, although it is flat, it had growth in the sparkling beverages and it had growth in the kind of the premium still to go live across multiple categories.
因此,北美雖然持平,但起泡飲料有所成長,而且多個類別的溢價也有成長。
And we had the prior some of the the process, some of the case pack water asset, actually North America category was Europe grew.
我們之前有一些流程,一些裝箱水資產,實際上北美類別是歐洲成長的。
Japan grew Aust
日本成長了澳大利亞
ralia.
拉利亞。
So they grow not only did they grow, it would the pressure at actually come from the emerging markets and that pressure in emerging markets was concentrated in a set of markets are somewhat temporal factors and some with some ongoing iss
因此,它們的成長不僅是成長,而且壓力實際上來自新興市場,而新興市場的壓力集中在一系列市場上,這些市場在某種程度上是暫時的因素,有些市場存在一些持續的問題
ue.
呃。
The temporal factors are more on.
時間因素更為重要。
For example, Mexico spike was cycling in this after a very strong Q3 last year.
例如,墨西哥的峰值在去年第三季非常強勁之後就出現了循環。
Brazil continued to be good, but Mexico was cycling a strong Q3 last year, which made a Latin American will look like it came off.
巴西隊繼續表現出色,但墨西哥隊去年第三季表現強勁,這讓拉丁美洲隊看起來像是失敗了。
But actually we still think that momentum is go
但實際上我們仍然認為勢頭正在減弱
od.
OD。
At India had a particularly heavy man monsoon in a number of states and that affected the volume in India.
印度多個邦遭遇特別強的季風,影響了印度的降雨量。
Actually, by the way, heavy monsoons tend to be a good predictor of agricultural yield, which would be then better next year.
事實上,順便說一句,強烈季風往往可以很好地預測農業產量,明年的農業產量會更好。
That's clearly going to be a temporary factor.
這顯然將是暫時因素。
And we'd be looking for India to return to growth parts of the modern world that are under more ongoing pressure opportunity, delay our China and the Eurasian markets or Eurasia and the Middle East are clearly here.
我們希望印度能夠重返現代世界的成長部分,這些地區面臨更多持續的壓力機會,延遲我們的中國和歐亞市場或歐亞大陸和中東顯然在這裡。
We still see a couple of things going on our one one in China.
我們在中國仍然看到一些事情正在發生。
Yes, the economy is kind of not taking off plus some of what's going on at choices.
是的,經濟並沒有起飛,加上一些選擇上正在發生的事情。
We made we we chose to de-prioritize some of what is in equivalent terms, case pack water.
我們選擇取消一些同等條件的優先級,即箱裝水。
And we focused on growth in the sparkling beverages in China.
我們專注於中國起泡飲料的成長。
So actually, Coke grew volumetrically in the third quarter in Japan.
事實上,可口可樂第三季在日本的銷售量出現了成長。
So it's clearly about some of it's about the choices we make, but we need to focus more on the things we can control in China, top better marketing, innovation and exe
因此,很明顯,其中一些與我們所做的選擇有關,但我們需要更多地關注我們在中國可以控制的事情,更好的營銷、創新和執行
cution.
切割。
But we see that light at the end of the tunnel and long-term investment opportunities are for the China business.
但我們看到隧道盡頭的曙光和長期投資機會屬於中國業務。
Your Asia business is more of a confluence of facto
您的亞洲業務更多的是事實的融合
rs
RS
.
。
The spillover from the Middle East conflict plus there's a set of markets there that are undergoing quite significant macroeconomic adjustments that is also coming together to prove to kind of create a relatively big headwind.
中東衝突的溢出效應加上那裡的一系列市場正在經歷相當重大的宏觀經濟調整,這些調整也被證明會產生相對較大的阻力。
Volumetrically speaking.
從體積上來說。
Our next question comes from Bill Chappell of Truist Securities.
我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Your line is op
您的線路已開通
en.
en.
Thanks, good morning.
謝謝,早安。
Could you just dig a little bit further into fair life?
能進一步挖掘一下公平生活嗎?
I guess maybe the size, I mean, at this point, are we nearing $1 billio
我想也許是規模,我的意思是,在這一點上,我們是否接近 10 億美元
n?
n?
How much impact does it having on mix and Canada prospects as we look to next year, can it continue to expand?
當我們展望明年時,它對混合和加拿大前景有多大影響,它可以繼續擴大嗎?
Or do you have tougher comparisons because it's really been a big driver kicking in the past 12, 18 months?
或者您是否有更嚴格的比較,因為它在過去 12、18 個月中確實是一個重要的驅動因素?
And just trying to understand the prospects going forward and how much impact gets now having on North American overall sales that Haynesville?
只是想了解未來的前景以及現在對海恩斯維爾北美整體銷售有多大影響?
Well, for sure, is going to be a billion-dollar brand as well as certainly pass that Mark awhile a
嗯,可以肯定的是,它將成為一個價值十億美元的品牌,並且肯定會超過這個馬克一段時間
go.
去。
I think firstly, like one of the most kind of, I think standout facts about the North American businesses.
我認為,首先,就像最重要的事實之一一樣,我認為有關北美企業的突出事實。
And I think we said it in the script is the two biggest brands in terms of retail dollars added to the North American beverage lands
我認為我們在劇本中說過,就北美飲料領域的零售額而言,這是兩個最大的品牌
cape
岬
.
。
Any brand across the whole industry is Coca-Cola trademark, unfair life.
整個產業任何品牌都是可口可樂商標,生活不公平。
And that shows you, I think the ability to take something that's been around for 138 years or make it continues to be relevant and take something there's not much more than a decade old and make that relevant to
這表明,我認為有能力採用已經存在 138 年的東西,或使其繼續具有相關性,並採用不超過 10 年歷史的東西,並使其與人們相關。
.
。
And so yes, it's having an impact on mix because large, we're consolidating our vertically integrated business.
所以,是的,它對組合產生了影響,因為我們正在整合我們的垂直整合業務。
And so there's a mechanical effect that the revenue line, which is part of that slightly outsized contribution from mix that I talked about earlier, but it's also delivering on the bottom lin
因此,收入線會產生機械效應,這是我之前談到的混合貢獻略大的一部分,但它也在底線上實現
e
e
.
。
But just to allay fears that somehow that means that the the rest of the businesses are going out now that the coat, the North America expert life is also growing top line gaining doing well and growing profit.
但為了減輕人們的擔憂,這意味著其他業務正在退出,因為大衣、北美專家的生活也在不斷增長,業績良好,利潤不斷增長。
So both engines are firing on all the engines are firing and it's not just one engine, which I think is very important to understand.
因此,兩台發動機都在點火,而不僅僅是一台發動機,我認為理解這一點非常重要。
And it can certainly continue to ad
而且它肯定可以繼續廣告
d.
d.
I mean, clearly next year we're going to be cycling a very strong year.
我的意思是,顯然明年我們的自行車運動將會非常強勁。
And we are in the process has previously advertised about bringing online more capacity than New York plant is being dug out of the ground or built out of the ground as we speak.
我們之前曾宣傳過,我們正在這個過程中上線的產能比我們所說的紐約工廠的產能還要多。
And so we will what we will.
所以我們會做我們想做的事。
We'll be aiming to blend in that capacity.
我們的目標是融入這種能力。
I'm clearly it's going to be hard to cycle this year's numbers until we get the capacity on our.
我很明顯,在我們達到產能之前,很難循環今年的數據。
But I think there's huge opportunity and demand in the marketplace.
但我認為市場上有巨大的機會和需求。
We just need to continue to run, keep it relevant and bring online capacity.
我們只需要繼續運行,保持相關性並帶來線上容量。
Next question comes from Kevin Grundy from BNP Paribas paper bag.
下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行紙袋公司的 Kevin Grundy。
Morning, ever
早安,永遠
yone.
永恩。
James, I was hoping to pivot to the alcohol strategy and learning buried.
詹姆斯,我希望把重點轉向酒精策略和隱藏的學習。
I think it's got a little bit less attention from investors more recently.
我認為最近投資者對它的關注有所減少。
The Company is about a few years in two or so to the strategy, extending some of the brand
公司大概會在兩年左右的時間內去策略,延伸一些品牌
.
。
We have a number different partners in the space with a number of different trademark, maybe comment, number one, sort of broader learnings here, a few years them and two, which opportunities you think are scalable globally and can become a more meaningful part of the portfolio.
我們在這個領域有許多不同的合作夥伴,有許多不同的商標,也許是評論,第一,這裡有更廣泛的學習,幾年他們和兩年,你認為哪些機會可以在全球範圍內擴展,並且可以成為更有意義的一部分投資組合。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Yes, sure
是的,當然
.
。
A couple of years and still value very early days.
幾年了,仍然很重視早期的日子。
I would advertise here.
我會在這裡做廣告。
I kind of our overall learning that, you know, most things take a decade to work out, whether they're going to arrive at scale a minimum of seven years.
我的整體認識是,大多數事情需要十年的時間才能解決,無論它們是否至少需要七年才能達到規模。
And that's tru
這是真的
e.
e.
Even if you look back at the beverage industry, the most successful of any brands is very hard to tell whether our guys really breaking through the scale until about year seven and it's at least till the attend to get its balanced often much longer.
即使你回顧飲料產業,任何品牌中最成功的品牌都很難判斷我們的員工是否真正突破了規模,直到大約第七年,並且至少要等到更長的時間才能達到平衡。
So a few years is still relatively early days in terms of really building out something that scale.
因此,就真正建造可擴展的東西而言,幾年還相對較早。
So that's point number two.
這是第二點。
We've been taking a measured approach to work out what will wor
我們一直在採取審慎的方法來找出有效的方法
k.
k.
And we've got some good learnings and we've pivoted where things didn't work and we kind of continue to advance where where things out.
我們學到了一些很好的經驗教訓,我們在那些不起作用的地方進行了調整,在那些事情出問題的地方我們繼續前進。
I think in terms of you kind of an implicit in the question is like is one of these going to work on the other was not going to well, I don't think I see this category that while I don't think there's going to be one pillar SKU to that is 50% of the market.
我認為就你而言,這個問題隱含著一個隱含的意思,就是其中一個會起作用,另一個則不會很好,我不認為我看到了這個類別,雖然我認為不會有成為佔據50% 市佔率的支柱SKU。
I think it's going to be much more than the alcohol industry has more variety, a more variety seeking behaviors.
我認為這將比酒精產業更加多樣化,尋求更加多樣化的行為。
And therefore, I think it's going to be more about also using a combination of some partnered ready to drink offerings like jacking Coke, epicardial, coke, absolute and Sprite, complemented with a set of our own brands, ARTD. like simply spiked or minimize like in a portfolio of it.
因此,我認為更多的是結合一些合作的即飲產品,如傑克可樂、心外膜可樂、可樂、絕對和雪碧,並輔以一系列我們自己的品牌 ARTD。就像在投資組合中簡單地增加或減少一樣。
And I think it's going to be about having a robust Paul folio of choice.
我認為這將是關於擁有一個強大的保羅作品集的選擇。
Some are is going to be the approach that is likely to do well in ARTD. and you look around the world are at the few markets, and they're only relatively few were ARTD. is a meaningful percentage of the BA relative to be a ban o
有些方法可能在 ARTD 中表現良好。你環顧世界,只看到少數市場,其中只有相對較少的 ARTD 市場。是 BA 相對於被禁止的有意義的百分比
n it
它
.
。
That's the characteristic that stands out.
這就是突出的特點。
So the question is, can we put together a bundle that could be affected not just in share terms, which I think that is possible.
所以問題是,我們能否整合一個不僅會在份額方面受到影響的捆綁包,我認為這是可能的。
But in terms of making ARTDA. irrelevant sized category.
但就製作ARTDA而言。大小不相關的類別。
Very good.
非常好。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Our next question comes from Robert Moskow from PD. Cowen.
我們的下一個問題來自 PD 的羅伯特·莫斯科 (Robert Moskow)。考恩.
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Your line is open.
您的線路已開通。
Hi.
你好。
A quick question.
一個簡單的問題。
Would you expect price mix to decelerate next year?
您預計明年價格組合會放緩嗎?
Some of it's due to our North America, some of it's due to hyperinflationary markets.
其中一些是由於我們的北美,一些是由於惡性通貨膨脹的市場。
So do you expect any benefit to volume from that?
那麼您認為這對銷售有什麼好處嗎?
Mike, is there is elasticity assumption.
麥克,是否存在彈性假設。
You did sound very positive about volume into two 25.
聽起來你確實對兩個 25 的音量非常積極。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Yes, it then there is a certain a mechanical effect to price mix and volume.
是的,這對價格組合和數量有一定的機械效應。
In other words, I'm expecting 25 to be the inverse of the third quarter.
換句話說,我預計 25 會與第三季相反。
In other words, I would expect the emerging markets to retake the more traditional position of growing faster than the developed economies, which will obviously contribute to volume growth, but instead of the, but it won't contribute to a positive price m
換句話說,我預期新興市場將重新佔據比已開發經濟體成長更快的傳統地位,這顯然將有助於銷售成長,但不會帶來正面的價格成長。
ix.
九.
I think they'll be some stabilization in that kind of relationship such that next year is going to look more like ARM, essentially what this years look like, which is what you got some volume growth, a more normal level of volume growth by a more normal level of pricing with a kind of a top-up of what will still be a risk residue amount of high inflation rate countries.
我認為他們的這種關係將會穩定下來,明年看起來會更像 ARM,本質上就是今年的樣子,這就是你的銷量增長,一個更正常的銷量增長水平。通膨率國家仍有風險殘留的金額進行補充。
And that's likely to be where 2025 is heading.
這很可能就是 2025 年的發展方向。
Thank you.
謝謝。
And last question today will come from Carlos Laboy from HSBC.
今天的最後一個問題將來自匯豐銀行的卡洛斯·拉博伊。
Please go ahead.
請繼續。
Your line is open.
您的線路已開通。
Yes, good morning, everyone.
是的,大家早安。
I have in North America specific question, can you tell us more about the improving system digital capabilities are being built?
我在北美有一個具體問題,您能否告訴我們更多有關正在建造的改進系統數位功能的資訊?
You might find most promising promising as you look forward to accelerating volume and revenue growth?
當您期待加速銷售和收入成長時,您可能會發現最有希望的前景?
And how are you completing the bottlers to make investments behind these capabilities?
您如何讓裝瓶商在這些能力背後進行投資?
Yes, sure, Carlos, or am I mean from us from a bottling s
是的,當然,卡洛斯,或者我的意思是我們來自裝瓶公司
ystem?
系統?
Our point of view, I think it away, it's the expansion of the digital, our engagement with the retail system.
我認為,我們的觀點是數位化的擴展,以及我們與零售系統的互動。
I mean, there was always, you know, the electronic ordering in modern trade, and that's been around a long, long
我的意思是,現代貿易中一直存在電子訂購,而且已經存在了很長很長一段時間。
month
月
s.
s。
What's really interesting about what's going on is more in the kind of mom-and-pop traditional trade trade or independent trade are part of the marketplace, which is not just the ability to provide a platform which allows retailers to engage with the ordering system are 24 seven rather than waiting for the presale at the turn up, they can engage to add product order add toward that they can register service requests for the holders of our merchandising materials.
真正有趣的是,夫妻店的傳統貿易或獨立貿易是市場的一部分,這不僅是提供一個允許零售商參與訂購系統的平台的能力,也是市場的一部分。等待預售出現,這樣他們就可以為我們的行銷資料持有者註冊服務請求。
But also as we start to get into a I the system can also start interacting with the retailers are with suggested, suggested orders and the engagement not not just from the retailer to the bottler in terms of ordering a service that actually from the bottler are to the retail, suggesting orders because of whatever is happening, there might be some events coming up.
而且,當我們開始進入 I 時,系統也可以開始與零售商進行交互,提供建議、建議的訂單,並且參與不僅是從零售商到裝瓶商的訂購服務,實際上是從裝瓶商到零售方面,建議下訂單,因為無論發生什麼,都可能會發生一些事件。
There might be people like you buy these sorts of things used to
可能有人跟你一樣買過這些東西
that.
那。
And so really see a combination of enhancement and to the market developers who are out there is not going to go from being a human system to really entirely electronic system.
因此,真正看到增強的結合,對於市場開發人員來說,他們不會從人類系統變成真正完全電子的系統。
I think it's going to be about the the the enablement of the humans to be as productive as they can be, whether those app resellers, market developers or the retail operators themselves.
我認為這將是關於如何讓人類盡可能地提高生產力,無論是應用程式經銷商、市場開發商還是零售營運商本身。
And so I think is very exciting and the bottlers are leaning in to the investment in this are
所以我認為這是非常令人興奮的,裝瓶商正在傾向於在這方面進行投資
a.
一個。
So with that, I'm just to conclude, we think we're well positioned to deliver on ambitions to a 2024 and over the long term, we're certainly managing near-term uncertainty as we continue to build assets on the long term, and we're confident we will create sustainable value for our stakeholders.
因此,我得出的結論是,我們認為我們有能力實現 2024 年的雄心壯志,從長遠來看,我們在繼續建立長期資產的同時,肯定會管理近期的不確定性,我們有信心為利益相關者創造永續的價值。
Thanks for your interest, your investment in the company and for joining us this morning.
感謝您對公司的興趣、投資以及今天早上加入我們。
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。
Thank you for participating.
感謝您的參與。
You may now disconnect.
您現在可以斷開連線。