可口可樂 (KO) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to The Coca-Cola Company's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. (Operator Instructions)

現在，我歡迎大家參加可口可樂公司 2023 年第四季獲利結果電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，請此時斷開連接。 （操作員說明）

I would like to remind everyone that the purpose of this conference is to talk with investors, and therefore, questions from the media will not be addressed. Media participants should contact Coca-Cola's Media Relations department if they have any questions.

我想提醒大家的是，這次會議的目的是與投資人對話，因此不會回答媒體的提問。媒體參與者如有任何疑問，請聯絡可口可樂媒體關係部門。

I would now like to introduce Mrs. Robin Halpern, Vice President and Head of Investor Relations. Mrs. Halpern, you may now begin.

現在我想介紹副總裁兼投資者關係主管羅賓·哈爾彭女士。哈爾彭夫人，您現在可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I'm here with James Quincey, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Murphy, our President and Chief Financial Officer.

早安，感謝您加入我們。我和我們的董事長兼執行長詹姆斯昆西 (James Quincey) 一起來到這裡。以及我們的總裁兼財務長約翰·墨菲。

We've posted schedules under financial information in the Investors section of our company website. These reconcile certain non-GAAP financial measures that may be referred to this morning to results as reported under generally accepted accounting principles. You can also find schedules in the same section of our website that provide an analysis of our growth and operating margins.

我們已在公司網站的投資者部分的財務資訊下發布了時間表。這些措施將今天上午可能提到的某些非公認會計原則財務指標與根據公認會計原則報告的結果進行了協調。您還可以在我們網站的同一部分找到時間表，其中提供了我們的成長和營業利潤率的分析。

This call may contain forward-looking statements, including statements concerning long-term earnings objectives, which should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements contained in our earnings release and in the company's periodic SEC report.

本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關長期盈利目標的陳述，這些陳述應與我們的盈利發布和公司定期 SEC 報告中包含的警示性陳述結合起來考慮。

Following prepared remarks, we will take your questions. (Operator Instructions) Now I will turn the call over to James.

在準備好的發言之後，我們將回答您的問題。 （接線員指示）現在我將把電話轉給詹姆斯。

Thanks, Robin, and good morning, everyone. In 2023, we achieved our near-term goals while also positioning our business for the long term. Our all-weather strategy delivered 8% comparable earnings per share growth despite greater-than-expected 7% currency headwinds. Today, we are leveraging our scale globally and winning locally, which gives us confidence that we can deliver on our 2024 guidance.

謝謝羅賓，大家早安。 2023 年，我們實現了近期目標，同時也對我們的業務進行了長期定位。儘管貨幣阻力超出預期 7%，但我們的全天候策略實現了 8% 的可比每股收益成長。如今，我們正在全球範圍內利用我們的規模並在當地取得勝利，這讓我們有信心實現 2024 年的指導方針。

This morning, I'll talk about the global consumer landscape, then I'll highlight how our strategy and enhanced capabilities are making us a more agile and effective organization. And finally, John will discuss our financial results and our 2024 guidance.

今天早上，我將討論全球消費者格局，然後我將重點介紹我們的策略和增強的能力如何使我們成為一個更敏捷和有效的組織。最後，約翰將討論我們的財務表現和 2024 年指引。

During the quarter, we benefited from strong performance across many of our markets, however, some were impacted by elevated inflation and others by geopolitical tensions and conflict. We delivered 12% organic revenue growth, which included 2 points of volume growth continuing a positive volume trend for the year. Throughout, we continue to invest in our business to provide the right portfolio of brands and packages to retain and attract more drinkers.

本季度，我們受益於許多市場的強勁表現，但一些市場受到通膨上升的影響，有些則受到地緣政治緊張局勢和衝突的影響。我們實現了 12% 的有機收入成長，其中銷量成長了 2 個百分點，延續了今年積極的銷售趨勢。自始至終，我們繼續投資於我們的業務，提供正確的品牌和包裝組合，以留住和吸引更多的飲酒者。

We drove industry growth and delivered value share gains in the quarter and for the full year. We achieved these results by effectively navigating a number of headwinds and capitalizing on tailwinds across our markets. During the quarter, we saw strong consumer demand across Australia, India, Latin America, Japan and South Korea.

我們推動了行業成長，並在本季和全年實現了價值份額的成長。我們透過有效地克服市場上的一些不利因素並利用有利因素來取得這些成果。本季度，我們看到澳洲、印度、拉丁美洲、日本和韓國的消費者需求強勁。

In North America, consumer spending in aggregate is holding up well. And in Europe, consumers remain cost conscious. In Africa and China, the macro environment remains uncertain. And in the Middle East, tensions have resulted in some shifts in consumer behavior that have had an impact on our business.

在北美，消費者支出大致保持良好。在歐洲，消費者仍注重成本。在非洲和中國，宏觀環境仍然不確定。在中東，緊張局勢導致消費者行為發生一些變化，這對我們的業務產生了影響。

Another important factor to highlight is the inflationary pressures, which are moderating or stabilizing across most of our markets. To keep consumers in our franchise, we are leveraging our revenue growth management capabilities to tailor our offerings and price pack architecture to meet consumers' evolving needs.

另一個需要強調的重要因素是通膨壓力，我們大多數市場的通膨壓力正在緩解或穩定。為了讓消費者留在我們的特許經營中，我們正在利用我們的收入成長管理能力來客製化我們的產品和價格包架構，以滿足消費者不斷變化的需求。

In North America and Europe, while inflation is moderating, the cumulative impact of inflation is pressuring certain consumer segments who are seeking value. Throughout 2023, we increased our affordability offerings and won volume and value share in both regions.

在北美和歐洲，雖然通膨正在放緩，但通膨的累積影響正在給某些尋求價值的消費者群體帶來壓力。 2023 年，我們增加了可負擔性產品，並贏得了這兩個地區的銷售和價值份額。

In Latin America, despite double-digit inflation during the fourth quarter, we grew volume 4% and increased household penetration and basket and incidence. There are a few pockets of the world that are experiencing hyperinflation. John will later speak to how this dynamic is impacting our business. However, I did want to mention that our local franchise operating model allows us to navigate through hyperinflationary environments and then gain an advantage over the long term.

在拉丁美洲，儘管第四季通膨率達到兩位數，但我們的銷量成長了 4%，家庭滲透率、籃子和發病率也有所增加。世界上有一些地區正在經歷惡性通貨膨脹。約翰稍後將談到這種動態如何影響我們的業務。然而，我確實想提一下，我們的本地特許經營營運模式使我們能夠度過惡性通貨膨脹的環境，然後獲得長期優勢。

Across our business, we continue to prioritize agility and focus on improving every aspect of how we operate. An important part of this is our marketing transformation. To recruit the next generation of drinkers, our marketing has shifted from a TV-centric model to a digital-first organization that balances local intimacy, scale and flexibility. Our digital mix has gone from less than 30% in 2019 to approximately 60% of our total media spend.

在我們的業務中，我們繼續優先考慮敏捷性，並專注於改善我們營運方式的各個方面。其中一個重要部分是我們的行銷轉型。為了招募下一代飲酒者，我們的行銷模式已從以電視為中心的模式轉變為數位優先的組織，以平衡本地親密性、規模和靈活性。我們的數位組合已從 2019 年的不到 30% 增加到媒體總支出的約 60%。

In 2023, we stood up Studio X, the digital ecosystem that brings this all together. We created physical hubs in each of our operating units, to integrate disciplines, standardize data and technology and step change our capabilities. Creative, media, social and production capabilities are now operating at scale, connected by our global network structure. In our previous model, it took several months to create a TV ad. Now we're producing thousands of pieces of digital content that are contextually relevant and measuring these results in real time.

2023 年，我們建立了 Studio X，這是一個將這一切結合在一起的數位生態系統。我們在每個營運單位中創建了物理中心，以整合學科、標準化數據和技術並逐步改變我們的能力。創意、媒體、社交和製作能力現已大規模運營，並透過我們的全球網路結構連接起來。在我們之前的模型中，製作電視廣告需要幾個月的時間。現在，我們正在製作數千條與上下文相關的數位內容，並即時測量這些結果。

Studio X is driving tangible results. For example, Coke Studio, which originated in Pakistan and taps into consumers' passion for music has been scaled to our top 40 markets. The campaign uses packaging as digital portals to access real magic experiences, which have generated more than 1.2 billion YouTube views and 100 million music streams this year, resulting in strong recruitment of Gen Z drinkers.

Studio X 正在推動實際的成果。例如，Coke Studio 起源於巴基斯坦，利用了消費者對音樂的熱情，現已擴展到我們的前 40 個市場。該活動利用包裝作為數位入口網站來獲取真正的魔幻體驗，今年已產生了超過 12 億的 YouTube 觀看次數和 1 億的音樂串流，從而吸引了 Z 世代飲酒者的大量湧入。

We're engaging differently with consumers and is delivering results. In 2023, according to Kantar, Coca-Cola brand value increased $8 billion. Coke is now the tenth most valuable brand in the world, up 7 spots from the prior year. In the U.S., Sprite was named by Morning Consult as the #1 beverage brand for Gen Z drinkers. We were also named 1 of the top 10 innovative companies in augmented and virtual reality by Fast Company.

我們以不同的方式與消費者互動並交付成果。據 Kantar 稱，2023 年，可口可樂品牌價值增加了 80 億美元。可口可樂現在是全球最有價值品牌第十名，比前一年上升了 7 位。在美國，雪碧被 Morning Consult 評為 Z 世代飲酒者的第一大飲料品牌。我們也被 Fast Company 評為增強和虛擬實境領域十大創新公司之一。

Our innovation agenda is increasing our competitive advantage across our products, packaging and equipment. Taste is the selling point. Simply put, people want drinks that taste great. To drive superiority across our total beverage portfolio, we're continuing to build capabilities to tap into unique insights in taste and aroma science. We're applying digital tools, ingredient processing technology and AI to create bolder and more successful innovations.

我們的創新議程是提高我們在產品、包裝和設備方面的競爭優勢。味道是賣點。簡而言之，人們想要味道好的飲料。為了提升我們整個飲料產品組合的優勢，我們正在繼續建立能力，以挖掘口味和香氣科學的獨特見解。我們正在應用數位工具、原料加工技術和人工智慧來創造更大膽、更成功的創新。

Coca-Cola Zero Sugar is an ongoing example of how superior taste drives demand, with volume that grew 5% in 2023, leading to continued volume and value share gains. We're applying learnings from this multiyear success and driving taste superiority elsewhere in our sparkling portfolio. In 2023, we launched Sprite and Fanta reformulations in 25 markets, delivering mid-single-digit volume growth in those markets and driving overall sparkling flavors value share gains.

可口可樂零糖是卓越口味如何推動需求的一個持續例子，其銷售量在 2023 年增長了 5%，導致銷售和價值份額持續增長。我們正在運用從多年成功中學到的知識，並在我們的氣泡酒產品組合中的其他地方推動品味優勢。 2023 年，我們在 25 個市場推出了雪碧和芬達的重新配方，在這些市場實現了中個位數的銷售成長，並推動了整體起泡口味價值份額的成長。

Outside of our sparkling portfolio, we're dialing up flavor profiles, adding functional benefits and expanding into new categories.

除了我們的氣泡酒產品組合之外，我們還在調整風味特徵，增加功能優勢並擴展到新的類別。

In Japan, we've relaunched Georgia Coffee, which generated broader customer interest and led to value share gains. In the U.S., fairlife's core power and nutrition plan offer high protein dairy without compromising taste. In 2023, fairlife grew volume 1%. Its ninth consecutive year of double-digit volume growth. We're also seeing continued promising results from Fuze Tea across Europe, Jack & Coke in the Philippines, Flashlyte in Mexico, among many others. In 2023, innovation contributed to approximately 30% of gross profit growth and our success rates have nearly tripled compared to 2019 levels.

在日本，我們重新推出了 Georgia Coffee，這引起了更廣泛的客戶興趣並帶來了價值份額的成長。在美國，fairlife 的核心能量和營養計劃提供高蛋白乳製品，且不影響口感。 2023 年，fairlife 的交易量增加了 1%。其銷量連續第九年實現兩位數成長。我們也看到 Fuze Tea 在歐洲、Jack & Coke 在菲律賓、Flashlyte 在墨西哥等地持續取得可喜的成果。 2023 年，創新對毛利成長的貢獻率約為 30%，我們的成功率與 2019 年的水準相比幾乎增加了兩倍。

Our revenue growth management execution capabilities continue to be distinct advantages as demonstrated by our ability to deliver volume and transaction growth despite ongoing inflationary pressures. We're working with our bottling partners to capture every opportunity available to create significant value for consumers and customers. By offering a total beverage portfolio in the right packages and at the right price points, we're driving category expansion and becoming more relevant to more consumers and customers.

我們的營收成長管理執行能力仍然是明顯的優勢，正如我們在持續的通膨壓力下實現交易量和交易成長的能力所證明的那樣。我們正在與我們的裝瓶合作夥伴合作，抓住每一個可用的機會，為消費者和客戶創造巨大的價值。透過以合適的包裝和合適的價格提供完整的飲料組合，我們正在推動品類擴張，並與更多消費者和客戶更加相關。

In North America, we're evolving packaging options across more distribution points to drive affordability and premiumization. On the affordability side, our 1.25-liter PET bottles are now available in 80% of supermarkets, and our 16-ounce can distribution increased by 14 points in convenience stores during 2023.

在北美，我們正在更多分銷點改進包裝選項，以提高可負擔性和高端化。在承受能力方面，我們的 1.25 公升 PET 瓶現已在 80% 的超市出售，2023 年我們的 16 盎司罐裝在便利商店的分銷量增加了 14 個點。

We're also focused on premiumization through the expansion of our mini-can offerings. During the quarter, we launched 15-pack mini cans in grocery and club channels. In Europe, we're leveraging the same playbook but adapting it to local needs. In Spain, our 1.25-liter PET package is offered at a compelling price point, and it drove 16% volume growth and increased household penetration in 2023.

我們還透過擴展我們的迷你罐產品來專注於高端化。本季度，我們在雜貨店和俱樂部通路推出了 15 包迷你罐。在歐洲，我們正在利用相同的策略，但會根據當地需求進行調整。在西班牙，我們的 1.25 升 PET 包裝價格極具吸引力，推動 2023 年銷量成長 16%，並提高了家庭普及率。

In Italy, Great Britain and Ireland, we drove premium single-serve mini cans as smaller package offerings to generate positive mix and incremental retail sales. Our franchise system uniquely combines the benefits of scale and knowledge sharing with the know-how needed to execute for customers and win locally in many different operating environments. For example, approximately 70% of purchasers' decisions are influenced at point of sale. Our systems stepped up in-store displays during the quarter, which drove incremental retail sales and cross-selling opportunities.

在義大利、英國和愛爾蘭，我們推出了優質單份迷你罐裝小包裝產品，以產生積極的組合併增加零售額。我們的特許經營系統獨特地將規模和知識共享的優勢與為客戶執行並在許多不同的營運環境中贏得本地勝利所需的專業知識結合起來。例如，大約 70% 的購買者決策會受到銷售點的影響。我們的系統在本季加強了店內展示，這推動了零售額的成長和交叉銷售機會。

Putting it all together, we've created $15 billion in incremental retail sales for our customers in 2023, more than any other beverage company. This was our sixth year in a row as the leader in value creation. While we're pleased with our progress, we recognize there's still much work to be done to capture the vast opportunities available, and our system is galvanized to move further and faster.

總而言之，到 2023 年，我們為客戶創造了 150 億美元的增量零售額，超過任何其他飲料公司。這是我們連續第六年成為價值創造領域的領導者。雖然我們對所取得的進展感到滿意，但我們認識到，要抓住可用的巨大機遇，仍有許多工作要做，我們的系統將進一步加快步伐。

Before I hand over to John, I want to acknowledge that none of this could happen without the unwavering dedication of our employees. And so as we turn to 2024, we expect the year will bring new challenges and opportunities, and we remain ready to respond through continuing to improve execution of our strategy across our total beverage portfolio. I look forward to sharing more next Tuesday at CAGNY, and I encourage everyone to listen in.

在我把工作交給約翰之前，我想承認，如果沒有我們員工堅定不移的奉獻精神，這一切都不可能實現。因此，當我們轉向 2024 年時，我們預計這一年將帶來新的挑戰和機遇，我們隨時準備好透過繼續改進整個飲料產品組合策略的執行來應對。我期待下週二在 CAGNY 分享更多內容，並鼓勵大家傾聽。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John.

這樣，我就把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter and throughout 2023, we delivered strong results. During the quarter, we grew organic revenues 12%, which was in line with our full year organic revenue growth. Unit case growth was 2% and was positive in each quarter of 2023.

謝謝你，詹姆斯，大家早安。在第四季和整個 2023 年，我們取得了強勁的業績。本季度，我們的有機收入成長了 12%，這與我們全年的有機收入成長一致。單位個案成長率為 2%，且 2023 年每季均呈正成長。

Concentrate sales grew 1 point ahead of unit cases, driven primarily by 1 additional day in the quarter. Our price mix growth of 9% in the quarter was driven by 3 factors: one, 2023 pricing actions across most of our markets; two, hyperinflationary pricing that I'll speak to in just a moment; and three, some mix, which is mostly timing related.

濃縮液銷售額比單位銷售量成長 1 個百分點，主要是因為本季增加了 1 天。本季我們的價格組合成長了 9%，這是由 3 個因素推動的：一是 2023 年大多數市場的定價行動；第二，惡性通貨膨脹定價，我稍後會談到；第三，一些混合，這主要與時間有關。

Comparable gross margin for the quarter was up approximately 140 basis points driven by underlying expansion and a slight benefit from bottler refranchising, partially offset by the impact of currency headwinds. Comparable operating margin expanded approximately 40 basis points for the quarter. This was primarily driven by strong top line growth, partially offset by currency headwinds and an increase in marketing investments.

由於基本擴張和裝瓶商再特許經營帶來的小幅收益，本季的可比毛利率增長了約 140 個基點，但部分被貨幣逆風的影響所抵消。本季可比營業利益率擴大約 40 個基點。這主要是由強勁的收入成長所推動的，但部分被貨幣不利因素和行銷投資的增加所抵消。

The positive volume and top line growth that we're realizing today demonstrates the effectiveness of our marketing spend. Below the line, comparable other income declined primarily due to the operating environment in Argentina. Putting it all together, fourth quarter comparable EPS of $0.49 was up 10% year-over-year despite higher-than-expected 13% currency headwinds.

我們今天實現的銷售和營收成長證明了我們行銷支出的有效性。線下，可比其他收入下降主要是由於阿根廷的經營環境。總而言之，儘管貨幣阻力高於預期的 13%，第四季可比每股收益為 0.49 美元，年增 10%。

Before moving on, I want to discuss the impact of a few hyperinflationary markets on our fourth quarter results. During the quarter, inflation intensified and exceeded 60% across these markets. In aggregate, while they represent less than 5% of our total volume, this degree of inflation creates a cosmetic distortion to our underlying results. In the fourth quarter, these markets contributed more than 3 points of our price/mix and most of our currency headwinds, including an outsized impact to comparable other income from balance sheet remeasurements in Argentina. They did not, however, have a material impact on our earnings per share results.

在繼續之前，我想討論一些惡性通膨市場對我們第四季業績的影響。本季度，這些市場的通膨加劇並超過 60%。總的來說，雖然它們占我們總量的不到 5%，但這種程度的通貨膨脹對我們的基本結果造成了表面扭曲。在第四季度，這些市場對我們的價格/組合和大部分貨幣不利因素的貢獻超過 3 個百分點，其中包括對阿根廷資產負債表重新計量的其他可比較收入產生的巨大影響。然而，它們並沒有對我們的每股盈餘產生重大影響。

In hyperinflationary markets, it's either impractical or impossible to hedge our currency exposure. And to manage it, we use our full suite of revenue growth management tools, including pricing actions to keep pace with local market inflation. We have been operating a long time in these markets, and we expect to be in them for a long time to come. We work hand in hand with our local bottling partners, and our focus will be to continue to nurture the strong relationships we have with our consumers and customers and to ultimately prevail longer term.

在惡性通貨膨脹的市場中，對沖我們的貨幣風險要不是不切實際，就是不可能。為了管理它，我們使用全套收入成長管理工具，包括與當地市場通膨保持同步的定價行動。我們已經在這些市場經營了很長一段時間，並且預計在未來很長一段時間內都會在這些市場上立足。我們與當地的裝瓶合作夥伴攜手合作，我們的重點將是繼續培養與消費者和客戶之間的牢固關係，並最終取得長期勝利。

So while we will continue to experience volatility of this nature in a few markets. It's important to keep in mind they are operated locally, they are typically self-funding, and they have not impeded our overall ability to grow earnings per share. As we move forward, we are confident our business model and the many levers within it will allow us to deliver on our overall objectives.

因此，儘管我們將繼續在一些市場經歷這種性質的波動。重要的是要記住，它們是在當地運營的，通常是自籌資金的，它們並沒有妨礙我們增加每股收益的整體能力。隨著我們的前進，我們相信我們的業務模式及其中的許多槓桿將使我們能夠實現我們的整體目標。

In 2023, free cash flow was $9.7 billion, which increased from the prior year. 2023 free cash flow included a transition tax payment of approximately $720 million which was approximately $340 million higher than the prior year and included approximately $230 million in M&A-related payments.

2023年，自由現金流為97億美元，較上年有所成長。 2023 年自由現金流包括約 7.2 億美元的過渡稅付款，比前一年增加約 3.4 億美元，並包括約 2.3 億美元的併購相關付款。

Our underlying free cash flow growth was largely attributable to strong operational performance and working capital benefits. If you exclude the full impact of the transition tax and M&A-related payments, our adjusted free cash flow conversion ratio would be within our target range of 90% to 95%. Our balance sheet remains strong, and our net debt leverage of 1.7x EBITDA is below our targeted range of 2 to 2.5x.

我們基本的自由現金流成長主要歸功於強勁的營運績效和營運資本效益。如果排除過渡稅和併購相關付款的全部影響，我們調整後的自由現金流轉換率將在 90% 至 95% 的目標範圍內。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，1.7 倍的 EBITDA 淨負債槓桿低於我們 2 至 2.5 倍的目標範圍。

During the fourth quarter, in addition to offsetting dilution from the exercise of stock options by employees, we repurchased additional shares in anticipation of expected proceeds from bottler refranchising. As James mentioned, we anticipate 2024 will bring new challenges and opportunities. However, through our all-weather strategy, we've proven we can deliver in many different operating environments.

在第四季度，除了抵銷員工行使股票選擇權帶來的稀釋外，我們還回購了額外的股票，以期獲得裝瓶商重新特許經營的預期收益。正如詹姆斯所說，我們預計 2024 年將帶來新的挑戰和機會。然而，透過我們的全天候策略，我們已經證明我們可以在許多不同的營運環境中交付。

Our 2024 guidance builds on the underlying momentum of our business. We expect organic revenue growth of 6% to 7% and comparable currency-neutral earnings per share growth of 8% to 10%. We anticipate hyperinflationary pricing will continue to play a role in 2024, but will moderate throughout the year.

我們的 2024 年指導建立在我們業務的基本動力之上。我們預期有機收入成長 6% 至 7%，可比貨幣中性每股收益成長 8% 至 10%。我們預計惡性通貨膨脹定價將在 2024 年繼續發揮作用，但全年將放緩。

We continue to make significant progress towards refranchising company-owned bottling operations. Bottle refranchising is expected to be a 4- to 5-point headwind to comparable net revenues and a 2-point headwind to comparable earnings per share, but will have a positive impact on both our margins and the return profile of our business.

我們繼續在公司自有裝瓶業務的再特許經營方面取得重大進展。瓶裝再特許經營預計將對可比淨收入造成 4 到 5 個百分點的阻力，對可比每股收益造成 2 個百分點的阻力，但將對我們的利潤率和業務回報狀況產生積極影響。

Based on current rates and our hedge positions, we anticipate an approximate 2- to 3-point currency headwind to comparable net revenues and an approximate 4- to 5-point currency headwind to comparable earnings per share for full year 2024. Notably, much of our anticipated 2024 currency headwinds are attributed to hyperinflationary markets with a meaningful impact in the first quarter.

根據當前匯率和我們的對沖頭寸，我們預計 2024 年全年可比淨收入將面臨約 2 至 3 個百分點的貨幣阻力，而可比每股收益將面臨約 4 至 5 個百分點的貨幣阻力。我們預計2024年的貨幣逆風是由惡性通貨膨脹市場造成的，並對第一季產生了重大影響。

Our underlying effective tax rate for 2024 is expected to be 19.2%. All in, we expect comparable earnings per share growth of 4% to 5% versus $2.69 in 2023. We expect to generate approximately $9.2 billion of free cash flow in 2024 through approximately $11.4 billion in cash from operations, less approximately $2.2 billion in capital investments.

我們 2024 年的基本有效稅率預計為 19.2%。總而言之，我們預計可比每股收益將成長4% 至5%，而2023 年為2.69 美元。我們預計，透過約114 億美元的營運現金（減去約22 億美元的資本投資），到2024 年將產生約92 億美元的自由現金流。

The $11.4 billion of cash from operations includes 2 items to highlight: transition tax payments of approximately $960 million, an increase of approximately $240 million versus 2023; payments associated with various M&A transactions of approximately $560 million, an increase of approximately $330 million versus 2023. Driven by our underlying cash flow generation and current balance sheet strength, we have ample flexibility to both reinvest in our business to drive growth and return capital to our shareowners.

來自營運的 114 億美元現金包括 2 個需要強調的項目：約 9.6 億美元的過渡稅，比 2023 年增加約 2.4 億美元；與各種併購交易相關的付款額約為5.6 億美元，比2023 年增加了約3.3 億美元。在我們潛在的現金流產生和當前資產負債表實力的推動下，我們擁有足夠的靈活性來對業務進行再投資以推動成長，並將資本返還給我們的股東。

A significant portion of our expected capital investment increase is to build capacity for fairlife and for our India business, both of which experienced robust growth in 2023. Related to capital return, we have an unwavering priority to grow our dividend as we've done with 61 consecutive years of dividend increases.

我們預期資本投資增加的很大一部分是為Fairlife 和我們的印度業務建設能力，這兩個業務在2023 年都經歷了強勁增長。與資本回報相關，我們堅定不移地優先考慮增加股息，就像我們所做的那樣股利連續61年增加。

With respect to share repurchases, we'll be flexible in our approach. Typically, we've repurchased shares to offset any dilution from the exercise of stock options by employees in the given year. Our capital allocation policy prioritizes agility, and we're committed to taking the right actions needed to drive the long-term health of our business and create value for our stakeholders.

在股票回購方面，我們將採取彈性的做法。通常，我們會回購股票，以抵銷員工在特定年份行使股票選擇權所帶來的稀釋。我們的資本配置政策優先考慮敏捷性，我們致力於採取必要的正確行動來推動我們業務的長期健康發展並為利害關係人創造價值。

There are some considerations to keep in mind for 2024. The first quarter of 2024 will be impacted by the timing of concentrate shipments in the fourth quarter of 2023 in some markets and cycling our strongest volume growth quarter from the prior year. We estimate the ongoing conflict in the Middle East had approximately 1 point of impact on volume growth during the fourth quarter of 2023. It's unclear how long this impact will last.

2024 年需要牢記一些注意事項。2024 年第一季將受到某些市場 2023 年第四季度精礦發貨時間的影響，並循環我們去年最強勁的銷量增長季度。我們估計，中東持續的衝突對 2023 年第四季的銷售成長產生了約 1 個百分點的影響。目前尚不清楚這種影響將持續多久。

In November 2023, the U.S. Tax Court rendered its supplemental opinion related to our ongoing dispute with the Internal Revenue Service. We intend to move forward on appeal and vigorously defend our position. We have ample balance sheet flexibility to fund any payment related to the appeal. Finally, due to our reporting calendar, there will be 1 less day in the first quarter and 2 additional days in the fourth quarter.

2023 年 11 月，美國稅務法院就我們與國稅局持續存在的糾紛發表了補充意見。我們打算繼續上訴並積極捍衛我們的立場。我們有足夠的資產負債表彈性來資助與上訴相關的任何付款。最後，由於我們的報告日曆，第一季將減少 1 天，第四季將增加 2 天。

So in summary, we're pleased with what we accomplished in 2023. We're building on our capabilities to continue the underlying momentum across our markets. We're progressing on our refranchising agenda, and we're reinvesting in our system to drive long-term growth. We have great confidence we can deliver on our 2024 guidance and long-term commitments. And with that, operator, we're ready to take questions.

總而言之，我們對 2023 年所取得的成就感到滿意。我們正在增強我們的能力，以繼續整個市場的潛在勢頭。我們正在推進我們的再特許經營議程，並且我們正在對我們的系統進行再投資以推動長期成長。我們非常有信心能夠實現 2024 年的指導方針和長期承諾。接線員，我們已經準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

I know John just went through a lot of details on the guide, but I do just want to step back and maybe go to a higher level conversation on this. Because for '23, you ended up with high single-digit earnings growth even with that 7-point currency headwind. And the initial guide for '24 for mid-single-digit earnings growth feels like a reasonable starting point.

我知道約翰剛剛瀏覽了指南中的許多細節，但我確實想退後一步，也許可以就此進行更高級別的對話。因為在 23 年，即使面臨 7 個百分點的貨幣逆風，您最終仍實現了高個位數的獲利成長。 24 年中個位數獲利成長的初步指南感覺像是一個合理的起點。

But can you just contextualize a bit how you're thinking about the impact of hyperinflation, like John mentioned the Middle East tensions, the consumer backdrop, et cetera, so how are you able to kind of come through with that U.S. dollar-based earnings growth outlook for the year?

但是，您能否稍微結合一下您對惡性通貨膨脹影響的看法，就像約翰提到的中東緊張局勢、消費者背景等等，那麼您如何才能透過以美元為基礎的收益來實現這一目標呢？今年的成長前景？

Yes, a couple of things. Firstly, the mid-single-digit growth in '24 is after the impact of the refranchising that we've called out. So in other words, pre-structural change, that's really 6% to 7%. Second, what I think '24 represents is ultimately a continuation of the underlying strength and momentum in the business that's been created.

是的，有幾件事。首先，24 年的中個位數成長是在我們呼籲的重新特許經營的影響之後。換句話說，結構性變革之前，實際上是 6% 到 7%。其次，我認為「24」最終代表的是已創建業務的潛在實力和勢頭的延續。

If you look at '23 or you look all the way back to 2019, take 5 years, if you like. What is captured within that is the kernel of the core business running at the top end of the growth algorithm. Yes, there's been inflation and distractions and up and downs. But in the end, running through that is a continuous amount of volume growth as we focus on our consumer franchise and keeping people in and growing the weekly plus consumers in our franchise.

如果你回顧 23 年，或回顧 2019 年，如果你願意的話，可以花 5 年。其中捕獲的是運行在成長演算法頂端的核心業務的核心。是的，確實有通貨膨脹、幹擾、起起落落。但最終，隨著我們專注於我們的消費者特許經營權並留住人們並增加我們特許經營權中的每週消費者數量，貫穿這一過程的是銷量的持續增長。

Managing the cycle of inflation that is now distinct depending on where you are in the world, but managing that cycle of inflation, such that we now have in the majority of the countries, 90-plus percent of the countries, normalized levels of kind of pricing more or less coming out of 2023. And so what you see in this guidance is really the core business in the 90-plus percent of the countries, really taking that combination of headwinds and tailwinds that we've experienced, there will be a different set in '24, there are bound to be some new surprises. But we will manage through them with our all-weather strategy and deliver volume growth.

管理通貨膨脹週期現在取決於你在世界上的哪個地方，但管理這個通貨膨脹週期，使得我們現在在大多數國家，90%以上的國家，都達到了某種程度的正常化水平。定價或多或少會在2023 年到來。因此，您在本指南中看到的實際上是90% 以上國家/地區的核心業務，真正考慮到我們經歷過的逆風和順風的組合，將會出現24年的設定不同，一定會有一些新的驚喜。但我們將透過全天候策略來應對這些挑戰並實現銷售成長。

Growth in the consumer base with weekly plus. We'll earn our right to take an appropriate level of pricing and deliver at the top end of the growth algorithm. And then there's the overlay of the inflationary markets and the selling of the bottler -- the bottling investment groups that we've done. And that hyperinflation is, as John said, a few points on the top and obviously, there's some on the bottom and largely offset by the devaluation. So those 2 things go together. But captured within that is a strong growing top and bottom in line with the growth algorithm.

每週增加消費群的成長。我們將贏得採取適當定價水準並在成長演算法的頂端提供服務的權利。然後是通貨膨脹市場和裝瓶商——我們所做的裝瓶投資集團——的出售的疊加。正如約翰所說，惡性通貨膨脹是頂部的幾個點，顯然，底部還有一些點，並且很大程度上被貶值所抵消。所以這兩件事是相輔相成的。但其中捕捉到的是與成長演算法一致的強勁成長的頂部和底部。

Our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So maybe just a quick follow-up there. As you think about that 6% to 7% organic sales growth guidance for '24, can you just give us a bit more detail on volume versus pricing on the underlying business, maybe ex the hyperinflationary markets, just as we think about that balance between volume and pricing?

所以也許只是快速跟進。當您考慮24 年6% 至7% 的有機銷售增長指導時，您能否給我們提供更多關於基礎業務的銷量與定價的詳細信息，也許除了惡性通貨膨脹市場，就像我們考慮兩者之間的平衡一樣數量和定價？

And then, James, just more importantly, longer term, perhaps you can just take a step back and review your confidence in delivering that long-term top line algorithm and the higher end of that algorithm just as you look out over the next few years. Taking a look back at the last few years, there's obviously been a lot of volatility. Hard for us to judge from an external perspective, given all the volatility with COVID. But how do you think about sort of the success of the strategic initiatives you put in place the last few years? And what level of confidence that gives you in the long term looking out a few years?

然後，詹姆斯，更重要的是，從長遠來看，也許您可以退後一步，回顧一下您對交付長期頂線演算法和該演算法的高端的信心，就像您展望未來幾年一樣。回顧過去幾年，顯然存在著很大的波動。考慮到新冠疫情的波動性，我們很難從外部角度做出判斷。但您如何看待過去幾年實施的策略舉措的成功程度？從長遠來看，您對未來幾年的信心有多大？

Sure. Look, I'll try and adjust the various angles there. Let me unpack a little bit '23 and -- the end of '23 as a way of coming into '24. And in '23, we had 2% volume growth. And that was true in the fourth quarter, and it was true through the year. And actually, if you take a 5-year CAGR, we've been running at 2% volume growth for the last 5 years. So to start with the volume, there's been strong underlying volume growth in the last quarter, in the last year, in the last 5 years.

當然。看，我會嘗試調整那裡的各個角度。讓我稍微解開一下 23 年以及 23 世紀末作為進入 24 世紀的一種方式。 23 年，我們的銷量成長了 2%。第四季是這樣，全年也是如此。事實上，如果以 5 年複合年增長率計算，過去 5 年我們的銷售成長率一直為 2%。首先從銷售開始，上個季度、去年、過去 5 年的基本銷售成長強勁。

So that's there. And we -- that's true because we focused on building momentum in the system, around building the consumer franchise. When you look at how that's come along with pricing, obviously, there's the pandemic, the ups and downs and inflation. But let's just break apart 2023 and how that then flows into '24.

就這樣。我們確實如此，因為我們專注於圍繞建立消費者特許經營權在系統中建立動力。當你看看它與定價的關係時，顯然，有流行病、起伏和通貨膨脹。但我們先來分解 2023 年以及它如何進入 24 年。

If you look at the fourth quarter '23, it says 9%. Yes, it's -- as John pointed out, there's a couple of points there that's related to intra-year, quarter-to-quarter deduction timing. So take off the 2 and you get a 7. Of the remaining 7, half of it is normal pricing in the 95% of the business that's not hyperinflationary. And the other 3.5% is in the hyperinflationary countries because the inflation is so high.

如果你看看 23 年第四季度，你會發現 9%。是的，正如約翰指出的那樣，有幾點與年內、季度間的扣除時間有關。因此，去掉 2，你會得到 7。在剩下的 7 中，一半是 95% 的非惡性通貨膨脹業務的正常定價。另外3.5%是在惡性通貨膨脹國家，因為通貨膨脹太高了。

So really, what have you got in the fourth quarter? You've got 2% volume, you got 3.5%, a bit more than 3.5% price/mix, and that's the core. There, you've got something that's running bang in the center of the long-term growth algorithm of 5% to 6% on the top line. It was true in the fourth quarter. It's true as the kernel in the whole 2023. Actually, it's really true across the whole of the last 5 years, once you take out some of these inflationary distortions and the selling of the bottling company.

那麼說實話，第四季你得到了什麼？你有 2% 的銷量，你有 3.5%，略高於 3.5% 的價格/組合，這就是核心。在那裡，你已經得到了一些在長期成長演算法中心運作的東西，即營收成長 5% 到 6%。第四季確實如此。作為整個 2023 年的核心，這一點都是正確的。實際上，一旦你除去一些通貨膨脹扭曲和裝瓶公司的出售，這在過去 5 年的整個過程中都是正確的。

So there, it is running the last quarter, the last year, the last 5 years. Think about '24. We're going to go as we've always said, for a balance of volume and price. In that 95% of the business, we're going to see volume growth and we're going to see normalized pricing growth. Our aim is for the net of the 2 to be in that top end of the long-term growth algorithm for revenue growth. Yes, there's going to be an overlay of hyperinflation, that's probably more like a couple of points as we think about 2024 on the top line, and that's why you get what we've called out in terms of the top line growth.

因此，它正在運行最後一個季度、去年、過去 5 年。想想'24。我們將像我們一直說的那樣，實現數量和價格的平衡。在這 95% 的業務中，我們將看到銷量成長，並且我們將看到正常化的價格成長。我們的目標是使兩者的淨值達到收入成長長期成長演算法的頂端。是的，將會出現惡性通貨膨脹，當我們考慮 2024 年的營收時，這可能更像是幾個點，這就是為什麼你會得到我們所說的營收成長。

So hopefully, that unpacks a bit of how price mix has got this hyperinflation [distortion] in it. Actually, it's also got the selling and the bottlers if you don't do it on comparable. But really embedded in that 6% to 7% is keep hitting the long-term growth revenue for kind of the sixth year. And we feel the momentum we've built with our bottling partners, investing in the marketing, the innovation, the in-store execution, the execution in the marketplace with the RGM strategies across the global portfolio of geographies gives us strong confidence we will continue with our momentum.

因此，希望這能夠揭示價格組合是如何導致這種惡性通貨膨脹的[扭曲]。事實上，如果你不做可比的話，它也有銷售和裝瓶商。但真正體現在 6% 到 7% 的是第六年繼續實現長期收入成長。我們感受到我們與裝瓶合作夥伴建立的勢頭，投資於行銷、創新、店內執行、市場執行以及 RGM 策略在全球各地的投資組合，這給了我們堅定的信心，我們將繼續下去以我們的動力。

Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

All right. I actually had a question on gross margins. I was hoping for a little bit more color on the drivers of your expansion in Q4, which came in better than expected. And then could you highlight maybe the key puts and takes on margins this year? Curious how much do you expect COGS inflation maybe to moderate or will higher sugar costs continue to be a big headwind?

好的。我實際上對毛利率有疑問。我希望對第四季度的擴張驅動因素有更多的了解，結果比預期的要好。那麼您能否強調今年利潤率的關鍵看跌期權和認購期權？好奇您預計銷貨成本通膨可能會放緩多少，或者食糖成本上漲是否會繼續成為一大阻力？

Thanks, Bonnie. Let me start if I just pick up from where James left off and step out of both the quarter and the year. If you look over the last 4 years, our -- we've been able to sustain a pretty resilient gross margin line. And as we go into 2024, expect to be able to continue to do so. There's some expansion embedded in the long-term growth model, and we're confident that we can continue to drive that.

謝謝，邦妮。讓我從詹姆斯停下來的地方開始，並退出季度和年度。如果你回顧過去四年，我們一直能夠維持相當有彈性的毛利率線。當我們進入 2024 年時，預計能夠繼續這樣做。長期成長模式中包含了一些擴張，我們有信心能夠繼續推動這一成長。

With respect to 2023, the key ingredients, so to speak, were the impact of the various pricing actions we've had around the world, somewhat offset by higher and normal inflation with some of our commodity items and indeed some are non-commodity costs. But overall, for 2023, that's the key story.

就2023 年而言，關鍵因素可以說是我們在世界各地採取的各種定價行動的影響，在一定程度上被我們的一些商品項目（實際上有些是非商品成本）的較高且正常的通貨膨脹所抵消。但總體而言，這才是 2023 年的關鍵。

In 2024, I think you need to take into account the mechanical impact of the refranchising of those markets that we talked about in the release that will layer in throughout 2024. Keep in mind to the impact of foreign currency headwinds. I think against that then, we will continue to drive the levers that we have.

到 2024 年，我認為您需要考慮我們在新聞稿中討論的那些市場重新特許經營的機械影響，該影響將在 2024 年全年分層進行。請記住外匯逆風的影響。我認為，與此相反，我們將繼續發揮我們現有的槓桿作用。

I've talked about this in the past, but maybe worth just highlighting, we start really with that suite of revenue growth management tools and the many actions that we can take with that. We have a very resilient supply chain, tremendous partners across the supply chain. We source mostly locally and we continue to drive through our scale, a lot of productivity in almost each line item of what comprises the supply chain.

我過去曾討論過這一點，但也許值得強調的是，我們實際上是從這套收入成長管理工具以及我們可以採取的許多行動開始的。我們擁有非常有彈性的供應鏈，整個供應鏈上都有龐大的合作夥伴。我們主要在本地採購，並繼續擴大規模，在供應鏈的幾乎每個項目中提高生產力。

So going into 2024, I think it's worth just reiterating, we expect to see margin expansion. Some of it driven by that mechanical effect of the bottler refranchising and with some more normalized cost inflation relative to the last couple of years plus continuing to deploy those levers I talked about, we see the opportunity to continue to drive per our long-term growth model expansion.

因此，進入 2024 年，我認為值得重申的是，我們預計利潤率將會擴大。其中一些是由裝瓶商重新特許經營的機械效應推動的，加上相對於過去幾年更加正常化的成本通膨，再加上繼續部署我談到的這些槓桿，我們看到了繼續推動我們長期增長的機會模型擴展。

Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

I'd like to just drill in a little bit more on North America. And James, I think on the last earnings call, you talked a little bit about channel shift, right, like on-premise or foodservice maybe growing faster than some of the take-home channels. There were some commentary, I think, also about -- or observations I should say, about maybe low-income consumers. So maybe just kind of state of things there.

我想進一步深入了解北美。詹姆斯，我認為在上次財報電話會議上，您談到了一些管道轉變，對吧，例如內部部署或餐飲服務的增長速度可能比一些帶回家的管道更快。我認為，還有一些評論是關於——或者我應該說是關於低收入消費者的觀察。所以也許只是那裡的情況。

And John, just if you can also clarify, I think in the press release, there was mention in the description around price/mix, some sort of adjustment. So I wasn't sure if that's an accrual related to promotions or just if you could just give us a little bit more color on that as well. And also sounds like concentrate shipments might have lagged in the quarter, so do we make that up in the first quarter? I know there's a lot there, but if you guys can just fill in, that would be helpful.

約翰，如果你也能澄清一下，我認為在新聞稿中，在有關價格/組合的描述中提到了某種調整。因此，我不確定這是否是與促銷相關的應計費用，或者您是否可以就此向我們提供更多資訊。而且聽起來本季精礦出貨量可能有所滯後，那麼我們會在第一季彌補這一情況嗎？我知道那裡有很多，但如果你們能填寫的話，那就會有幫助了。

Yes. Let me take the end and then I'll pass it over to James for the beginning. The mix that you refer to is timing related. And it's not unusual in the fourth quarter to have timing-related items in the deductions area, particularly. That will flow back through into next year.

是的。讓我來結束，然後我將把它交給詹姆斯來開始。您提到的混合與時間相關。尤其是在第四季度，扣除領域中與時間相關的項目並不罕見。這將回流到明年。

Yes. Consumer, to -- let me go with 2 things here. One, clearly, the consumer landscape in North America, one has to not think of it in aggregate because actually, in aggregate, the U.S. consumer spending power has held up pretty strongly compared to some other developed markets.

是的。消費者，讓我在這裡講兩件事。顯然，北美的消費者格局，人們不必從整體上考慮它，因為實際上，總體而言，與其他一些已開發市場相比，美國消費者的消費能力相當強勁。

What has been important is to understand there's a section of the population that has come under pressure from disposable income, the real spending power squeeze from the inflationary effect. And there, we are very much focused on affordability, and you could perhaps argue that some of them went out less -- there was more at-home purchases, some of the certain channels. And there, we really focused with affordability both from pack size -- individual pack size and with multipack.

重要的是要了解一部分人口受到可支配收入的壓力，即通貨膨脹效應造成的實際消費能力擠壓。在那裡，我們非常關注負擔能力，你也許會說他們中的一些人外出較少——有更多的家庭購買，一些特定的管道。在那裡，我們真正關注的是包裝尺寸（單包裝尺寸和多件包裝）的經濟性。

On the other hand, there's a segment of consumers that still have plenty of money, plenty of purchasing power, and we've seen strong growth for some of the higher price point, premium segments like fairlife, Core Power, Simply, some of those ones. So there's clearly multiple things going on in the landscape in terms of categories and price points, and we've been working to address both ends of those.

另一方面，有一部分消費者仍然有足夠的錢，有足夠的購買力，我們已經看到一些較高價位的高端細分市場的強勁增長，例如 fairlife、Core Power、Simply 等那些。因此，在類別和價格點方面，顯然存在多種情況，我們一直在努力解決這兩個問題。

And as it relates to channels, I think we've seen the kind of renormalization. There has been a historic slight shift in volume consumption from at-home to away over time. Clearly, through COVID, there was a big down in the away-from-home and then a rebound in '21, the away-from-home channels. In '22, they out but they continue to outpace at-home. In '23, they were slightly ahead of at-home. If you look at the various away-from-home channels, they were slightly ahead of at-home. I would say that that's landing more in what it was previous to COVID, kind of the more normal situation.

由於它與通道有關，我認為我們已經看到了這種重新正常化。隨著時間的推移，消費量從在家到外出發生了歷史性的小幅轉變。顯然，由於新冠疫情，客場管道出現了大幅下降，然後在 21 年客場管道出現反彈。 22年，他們出局了，但他們在主場繼續領先。 23年，他們在主場稍微領先。如果你看一下各種客場管道，你會發現它們稍微領先於主場渠道。我想說的是，這與新冠​​疫情之前的情況相比，是一種更正常的情況。

So that was kind of what I would say, strong need to focus on the different consumer segments and the sort of renormalization of some of the channel dynamics.

這就是我想說的，強烈需要關注不同的消費者群體以及某些管道動態的重新正常化。

Our next question comes from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

Two questions, if I could. I know I'm supposed to have one, but one is quick. Just on the -- if you could clarify maybe for John, you called out the 2% to 3% currency headwinds for next year on the revenue but a 4% to 5% headwind on EPS. Just if you could, how much of that incremental bottom line headwind is going to show up in operating profit versus below the line given monetary asset revaluation, et cetera?

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。我知道我應該擁有一個，但是一個很快。只是 - 如果你能為約翰澄清一下，你指出明年的收入將面臨 2% 至 3% 的貨幣阻力，但每股收益將面臨 4% 至 5% 的阻力。如果可以的話，考慮到貨幣資產重估等因素，增量底線逆風有多少會體現在營業利潤中，而不是低於底線？

And then I guess the broader question is just thinking about all the refranchising activity and the system progress that you made in '23. We talked about the financial impacts of that in '24, but I guess I'd love your perspective, James, on the importance of the steps you made in '23 in terms of just betterment of the system overall and priorities going forward from a system evolution perspective.

然後我想更廣泛的問題只是考慮所有的再特許經營活動以及您在 23 年取得的系統進展。我們在 24 年討論了這一點的財務影響，但我想我會喜歡你的觀點，詹姆斯，關於你在 23 年採取的步驟的重要性，這些步驟正在改善整個系統和從系統演化視角。

Okay. Should I start at this time and then you go second, John?

好的。我應該在這個時候開始，然後你第二個嗎，約翰？

Sure.

當然。

Sure. Look, we have been focused on our refranchising effort. And as -- I like John's phrase, our ambition is to be the world's smallest bottler. It still remains absolutely true, but we're going to do it at the pace, so to make sure we do the refranchise in the right way with the right partners.

當然。看，我們一直專注於我們的再特許經營工作。正如我喜歡約翰的話，我們的目標是成為世界上最小的裝瓶商。這仍然是絕對正確的，但我們將按照節奏進行，以確保我們與正確的合作夥伴以正確的方式進行重新特許經營。

I think we can categorically say we're very pleased with the refranchise process that we have undertaken over the last number of years. Almost without exception, every time we put one of the bottling companies into the hands of the right partner with a joint vision and investment plan to take the business forward, we have stepped up performance, whether it be a straight refranchising or a combination creating new bottlers or evolved bottlers, we have upped the level of performance.

我想我們可以明確地說，我們對過去幾年進行的重新特許經營過程感到非常滿意。幾乎無一例外，每次我們將一家裝瓶公司交給具有共同願景和投資計劃的合適合作夥伴以推動業務發展時，我們都會提高績效，無論是直接特許經營還是創造新的組合裝瓶機或進化裝瓶機，我們提高了性能水準。

And I think that is a sign of the commitment of the company to invest in what it does best, which is the branding, the marketing, the innovation, working with our bottlers to get the revenue growth management and their unwavering commitment to drive execution and build capabilities and capacities in the marketplace. And that has helped power the overall performance I talked about in the answer to the previous questions.

我認為這表明公司致力於投資於其最擅長的領域，即品牌、行銷、創新，與我們的裝瓶商合作以實現收入成長管理，以及他們堅定不移地致力於推動執行和建立市場能力和能力。這有助於提高我在回答前面的問題時所談到的整體效能。

So as -- I think we're in the penultimate chapter of the refranchising. There's only really a couple of pieces left, at the right time with the right partners, we would like to finish the play. But really, we have our eye on the prize on creating a much stronger system together with our bottling partners to continue the top of the algorithm momentum very far into the future.

因此，我認為我們正處於重新特許經營的倒數第二章。只剩下幾塊了，在正確的時間和正確的合作夥伴，我們希望完成這部劇。但實際上，我們著眼於與我們的裝瓶合作夥伴一起創建一個更強大的系統，以在未來很長一段時間內繼續保持演算法勢頭的頂峰。

Great. And on currency, Steve, let me just make a couple of comments in case there are other questions out there on currency overall. First of all, I think it's important to highlight the '24 guidance that we've given, it would be close to flat if we were to exclude those few hyperinflationary markets. And it just reinforces the point that we're making on that sort of distortion that those few markets have.

偉大的。關於貨幣，史蒂夫，讓我發表一些評論，以防總體上存在有關貨幣的其他問題。首先，我認為重要的是要強調我們給出的 24 年指導，如果我們排除那些少數惡性通貨膨脹市場，則該指導將接近持平。這只是強化了我們對那些少數市場所存在的那種扭曲的觀點。

And then secondly, with regard to your specific question, I do not have that breakdown. Today, there's just too many. There's just too many puts and takes, particularly in that -- below the operating income line as we go through the year. You've got to do a monthly remeasurement on the balance sheet items and that's just a calculation that I don't have -- I don't have the ability to predict with great detail. So just keep in mind that the overall impact, I think, is the one to focus on.

其次，關於你的具體問題，我沒有具體的情況。今天，數量太多了。有太多的看跌期權，特別是在我們這一年中低於營業收入線的情況。你必須每月對資產負債表項目進行一次重新測量，而這只是我沒有的計算——我沒有能力進行詳細的預測。因此，請記住，我認為整體影響才是值得關注的。

In normal years, the multiplier is 1.5 to 2x. We would continue to assume that will be the case going forward. But these hyperinflationary markets have a tendency to create that distortion that we've highlighted. And we'll continue to provide guidance as we go through the year to make sure that everybody stays abreast of the latest developments.

正常年份，乘數為1.5至2倍。我們將繼續假設未來的情況將會如此。但這些惡性通貨膨脹的市場有造成我們所強調的扭曲的趨勢。我們將在這一年中繼續提供指導，以確保每個人都能及時了解最新進展。

Our next question comes from Rob Ottenstein from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Rob Ottenstein。

So, James, I think you made a very strong case that really over the last 5 years, if you ex out the noise, you've delivered at roughly kind of 5% top line growth, which puts you clearly in the top rankings of your other staples companies, and that's great. In terms of both '24 and looking forward, assuming a continuation of that, what can you do to both derisk that in terms of the bottom line and enhance it in terms of the bottom line, given the various macro variables?

所以，詹姆斯，我認為你提出了一個非常有力的論據，在過去的 5 年裡，如果你消除噪音，你的收入增長大約為 5%，這使你明顯處於頂級排名中。你的其他主食公司，那就太好了。就 24 年和展望未來而言，假設這種情況繼續下去，考慮到各種宏觀變量，您可以採取什麼措施來降低獲利風險並增強獲利？

And then given that you've now delevered to 1.7, you've shown interest in buying back stock should we think of share buybacks as perhaps a greater part of the overall algorithm and value creation for shareholders going forward?

鑑於您現在已經去槓桿化至 1.7，您已經表現出了回購股票的興趣，我們是否應該將股票回購視為未來股東整體演算法和價值創造的更大一部分？

Okay. So I mean, I think the derisking, I think what I would say is, look, we faced an extraordinary number of headwinds in the last 5 years and still delivered at the top end of the algorithm. Things will happen in the coming years, but there'll be tailwinds. And I think really the argument about the all-weather is, I cannot tell you what the future holds.

好的。所以我的意思是，我認為要消除風險，我想我想說的是，看，我們在過去 5 年裡面臨大量的阻力，但仍然在演算法的頂端實現了目標。未來幾年將會發生一些事情，但也會有順風車。我認為關於全天候的真正爭論是，我無法告訴你未來會怎樣。

But if you look at what we've managed to work through and deliver at the top end on the revenue, and the momentum and the capabilities that we've built in the system, and actually, if you look at the share and look at our long-term performance of also gaining share within the industry, I think you can see ahead of steam builds up on momentum. And at the scale that we operate, it's a very compelling way to drive it forward.

但是，如果你看看我們已經成功地完成了哪些工作並在收入方面實現了最高目標，以及我們在系統中構建的動力和功能，實際上，如果你看看份額並看看我們的長期業績也在行業內贏得了份額，我想你可以看到領先的勢頭正在增強。就我們的營運規模而言，這是推動其向前發展的一種非常引人注目的方式。

And as that feeds down into the bottom line. Obviously, the mid-single-digit U.S. dollar EPS call for 2024 includes the disposal of 2 points of EPS from the bottling system. So kind of on an ongoing basis, that's already 6% to 7%. I think we can continue to drive some leverage from the top line to the bottom line in dollars, and that becomes a compelling compound over time.

這會影響到底線。顯然，2024 年每股盈餘中個位數的目標包括從裝瓶系統中處置 2 個百分點的每股盈餘。因此，在持續的基礎上，已經是 6% 到 7%。我認為我們可以繼續推動美元槓桿從營收到營收，隨著時間的推移，這將成為一個引人注目的化合物。

And as it relates to cash, I think that you will see we've put in a kind of a new non-GAAP metric somewhere in the ecosystem of the website, which just calls out what John was talking about, about the number of discrete items that are coming up over the next couple of years as it relates to transition tax, actually curiously, tax on the M&A transactions. If you sell a bottler, the money you get disappears into one account but the tax you pay goes into the free cash flow, curiously enough.

由於它與現金相關，我認為您會看到我們在網站生態系統中的某個地方引入了一種新的非公認會計原則指標，它只是指出了約翰所說的，關於離散的數量未來幾年將出現的項目，因為它與過渡稅有關，實際上奇怪的是，與併購交易稅有關。如果你賣掉一家裝瓶商，你得到的錢就會消失在一個帳戶中，但你繳納的稅款會進入自由現金流，這很奇怪。

So there's a whole set of discrete items that make the free cash flow look odd for the next few years. But if you strip that out, you see that the earnings are flowing into free cash flow. The cash conversion on that adjusted basis remains very high and is likely to do so. So on a -- in a normal world, clearly, as John said, we will continue to increase our dividend, and we would have substantive additional cash to continue to invest in the business and consider potential share repurchases.

因此，有一整套離散的項目使得未來幾年的自由現金流看起來很奇怪。但如果你把它去掉，你會發現收益正在流入自由現金流。調整後的現金轉換率仍然非常高，而且很可能是如此。因此，在正常情況下，正如約翰所說，顯然我們將繼續增加股息，並且我們將擁有大量額外現金來繼續投資業務並考慮潛在的股票回購。

The wrinkle in the cream, if you like, is our considerations of the IRS tax case and the impending appeal. And so as we go forward for the next few years, we like our strong balance sheet. We are mindful of the likelihood of launching the appeal in the second half. We have incoming nonoperating cash flows, which as John talked about, we used to buy some shares in the fourth quarter. We're going to balance all these things particularly in the next couple of years, we'll keep everyone updated. But I think the long-term perspective is that the cash generation will continue to be very strong.

如果你願意的話，最重要的是我們對國稅局稅務案件和即將上訴的考慮。因此，當我們展望未來幾年時，我們喜歡我們強勁的資產負債表。我們注意到下半年發起上訴的可能性。我們有傳入的非經營性現金流，正如約翰所說，我們曾經在第四季度購買了一些股票。我們將平衡所有這些事情，特別是在接下來的幾年裡，我們將向每個人通報最新情況。但我認為從長遠來看，現金產生將繼續非常強勁。

John, yes, go on.

約翰，是的，繼續。

Just one additional point. In addition to that unwavering commitment we have to the dividend that we've talked about in the script, one of the lessons I think over the last couple of years is to be prepared to be more dynamic relative to your kind of normal view of the individual components.

只是補充一點。除了我們在劇本中討論過的堅定不移的承諾之外，我認為過去幾年的教訓之一是準備好相對於你對電影的正常看法更具活力。單獨的組件。

So as you know, our debt goal is to be 2x to 2.5x, and we're at 1.7. We think that's right for what we need going into 2024, 2025. We've taken up our CapEx for 2024 because it's the right thing to do to continue to build the growth foundations that we need in those parts of the business that need capacity. Just 2 examples.

如您所知，我們的債務目標是 2 倍到 2.5 倍，而我們的目標是 1.7 倍。我們認為這適合我們進入 2024 年、2025 年的需求。我們已經承擔了 2024 年的資本支出，因為繼續在需要產能的業務部分建立我們所需的成長基礎是正確的做法。僅舉2個例子。

And so I think we will continue to demonstrate that as we go forward. The share repurchases in the back half of the year, again, was not something that we had necessarily considered at the start of the year, but we -- first, there was an opportunity with the bottler proceeds coming in to do so. And we continue to take that approach as we enter this coming year.

因此，我認為我們將在前進的過程中繼續證明這一點。同樣，下半年的股票回購並不是我們在年初就必須考慮的事情，但我們——首先，裝瓶商的收益有機會這樣做。當我們進入明年時，我們將繼續採取這種方法。

Our next question comes from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的克里斯凱裡。

I wanted to see if you could maybe frame the global away-from-home channel? I know you touched on it a little bit in response to Bryan's question, but we've heard about, obviously, there's a lot of pricing power in that channel. There's been a lot of pricing. You're talking about a normalization from elevated levels back to a more normal channel distribution between at-home and away-from-home. But can you maybe just give us a bit more granular perspective on what you're seeing by region and whether some of the strengths that I think was occurring in Q4 has continued into this year.

我想看看你是否可以建立全球離家頻道？我知道你在回答布萊恩的問題時稍微提到了這一點，但我們顯然聽說過，該頻道有很大的定價能力。已經有很多定價了。您正在談論從高水平回歸到在家和外出之間更正常的管道分配的正常化。但您能否為我們提供一些更具體的視角，了解您所看到的各地區情況，以及我認為第四季度出現的一些優勢是否延續到了今年。

Yes. Sure, Chris. I'll give it a go. Look, I think the headline is the commentary about North America to some extent, applies -- to some extent, applies everywhere else in the sense that clearly in COVID, there was the closedowns, the reopening, big swings between away-from-home and at-home. But in '22, it kind of renormalized. And I think overall, in '23, you see that again. You saw that in the U.S. where the away-from-home channels in aggregate were slightly ahead of the at-home channels. You see that also in Europe, or in the EMEA segment, you see the at-home slightly, but it's only marginal.

是的。當然，克里斯。我會嘗試一下。聽著，我認為標題是對北美的評論，在某種程度上，適用於其他地方，從某種意義上說，在新冠疫情中，有關閉、重新開放、離家之間的巨大波動。和在家。但到了 22 年，情況又重新正常化了。我認為總的來說，在 23 年，你會再次看到這一點。您可以看到，在美國，外出通路整體略領先國內通路。您會看到，在歐洲或歐洲、中東和非洲地區，您也可以看到在家中的情況略有改善，但只是微乎其微。

And when you break it down, I mean there's going to be the kind of continuing structural growth of away-from-home, but it's only a small fraction. If that's a sort of -- if that's the sort of leading to a question about pricing and is there some ongoing likelihood of a big upside from kind of channel mix, the short answer is no.

當你把它分解時，我的意思是，外出旅遊將會出現持續的結構性成長，但這只是一小部分。如果這會引發有關定價的問題，而通路組合是否存在持續帶來巨大上漲空間的可能性，那麼簡單的答案是否定的。

If I were to take a proxy of immediate consumption packages and future comps and consumption packages, because channel mix becomes very different as you get to different parts of the world, particularly the emerging markets, then they became much more -- the kind of the immediate consumption came much more into balance versus the future consumption in '23 relative to '22. And that's not too surprising as we start to also think about affordability having been a strategy in 2023. So that's a roundabout way of saying we're not expecting big mix effects from channel in '24.

如果我用即時消費套餐和未來的消費套餐作為代理，因為當你到達世界不同地區時，通路組合變得非常不同，特別是新興市場，那麼它們就變得更加 - 那種與22 年相比， 23 年的即時消費與未來消費更為平衡。這並不奇怪，因為我們也開始考慮將負擔能力作為 2023 年的策略。因此，這是一種迂迴的說法，即我們預計 24 年的管道不會產生巨大的混合效應。

Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

James, can you comment a little bit about the U.S.? I understand, obviously, U.S. is not -- in terms of the volumes, it's about 20%. But within your outlook for 2024, you quoted in the fourth quarter that water sports coffee were more negative or decelerating. And how about -- what is -- of that is like mostly self-inflicted, vis-a-vis, what you're actually facing in terms of market share? And how much you expect that to be lingering into the first half of '24?

詹姆斯，你能談談美國嗎？我知道，顯然美國不是——就數量而言，大約是 20%。但在您對 2024 年的展望中，您在第四季度引用了水上運動咖啡更為負面或減速的說法。相對於你在市場佔有率方面實際面臨的情況來說，這主要是你自己造成的，怎麼樣？您預計這種情況會持續到 24 年上半年嗎？

And just a clarification to your comment now in terms of like the shift into on-premise and back to your comments on price mix. Out of the 9% that you got, if my math is correct, you've got about 2% or 3% benefit from mix in 2023. Should we expect that to decelerate? Or with your efforts to do more mini cans and take that more broadly, is that still going to be the projected contribution for 2024?

現在只是對您的評論進行澄清，例如轉向內部部署並返回您對價格組合的評論。如果我的計算正確的話，在您獲得的 9% 中，您將在 2023 年從混合中獲得大約 2% 或 3% 的收益。我們是否應該預期這種情況會減速？或者，隨著您努力生產更多迷你罐並擴大範圍，這仍然是 2024 年的預期貢獻嗎？

Sure. Okay. The comments on the 2% in the fourth quarter, that was related not to channel mix, but to the rate that -- the way that deductions happen. So this is not -- this is often just an accounting treatment between the quarters within the year. So it's not mix as you would think about it in terms of package mix or channel mix or category mix. This is related to kind of the big difference between gross and net revenue. And so it's a distraction in the short term. So I would move past that one.

當然。好的。關於第四季 2% 的評論，這與通路組合無關，而是與扣除發生的方式有關。所以這不是——這通常只是一年內各季度之間的會計處理。因此，它不是像您所認為的包裝組合、頻道組合或類別組合那樣的混合。這與總收入和淨收入之間的巨大差異有關。因此，這在短期內會分散人們的注意力。所以我會跳過那個。

And if you like, to me, ignore that bit, focus instead on the underlying impact in 2023 of the nonhyperinflationary pricing, which was the kind of 3.5%, which is very -- which ran through 2023 and is inherent in what we're saying, roughly speaking, for 2024. So we're expecting rate and mix whether it's channel category, geography, package, the sort of things we were saying, which in '23 is what we're expecting in '24. And again, those are all largely normalized in '23. So by inference, they're all largely normalized in '24 as well. So you kind of see a stability across channels, packages, et cetera, et cetera.

如果你願意，對我來說，忽略這一點，而是關注 2023 年非惡性通貨膨脹定價的潛在影響，即 3.5%，這是非常——貫穿 2023 年的，是我們所固有的粗略地說，是2024 年。因此，我們預期23 年的價格和組合，無論是通路類別、地理位置、套餐，或是我們所說的這類事情，23 年都是我們對24 年的預期。再說一遍，這些在 23 年都已基本正常化。因此推斷，它們在 24 年基本上也都正常化了。所以你會看到跨渠道、套餐等的穩定性。

As it relates more specifically to the U.S., yes, we did some deprioritization of some of the bulk water categories. And some of the advanced hydration was the normalization or restabilization of the sports drinks category. I mean I don't think there's an obvious or useful split between self-inflicted or proactive decisions versus things that were competitive, that's hard to tease apart.

由於它與美國更具體相關，是的，我們對一些大宗水類別進行了一些優先考慮。一些先進的水合作用是運動飲料類別的正常化或重新穩定。我的意思是，我認為自我造成的或主動的決策與競爭性的決策之間沒有明顯或有用的區別，這很難區分。

Clearly, from a performance point of view, when we think about it in the U.S., yes, there was a fractional softening of the volume through the year, which I think goes back to the comment I made about the different consumer segments. But if you step back and think about what was the overall impact of our marketing, innovation, RGM and execution with the bottlers, the answer is we won volume share in 2023, and we won value share in 2023.

顯然，從業績的角度來看，當我們考慮美國的情況時，是的，全年銷量略有疲軟，我認為這可以追溯到我對不同消費群體的評論。但如果你退一步思考我們的行銷、創新、RGM 和執行對裝瓶商的整體影響是什麼，答案是我們在 2023 年贏得了銷售份額，並在 2023 年贏得了價值份額。

So yes, there's work to be done in the water category and advanced hydration and to a much lesser extent, in tea. But the overall picture is strong growth in sparkling, particularly Coke and Sprite, good on smart water, good on vitamin water, good on Topo Chico, very good on fairlife, good overall win on both dimensions. And that's the platform we'll be looking to drive in 2024.

所以，是的，在水類別和高級補水方面還有工作要做，在茶方面則要小得多。但總體情況是，起泡酒成長強勁，尤其是可口可樂和雪碧，智慧水成長良好，維生素水成長良好，Topo Chico 成長良好，fairlife 成長良好，在兩個方面都取得了良好的整體勝利。這就是我們希望在 2024 年推動的平台。

Our next question comes from Bill Chappell from Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Bill Chappell。

Just a question on kind of the Chinese -- China consumer and both kind of how it's progressed or how he or she has progressed over the past few months versus your expectations or just in general and kind of what you see kind of spending power and just getting back to normal consumption as we move into '24.

只是一個關於中國消費者的問題，以及過去幾個月的進展情況，或者他或她與你的預期相比或總體上的進展情況，以及你所看到的消費能力，以及當我們進入“24 」時，恢復正常消費。

Sure. Let me put it -- '23 started very strongly in China. We had invested very heavily behind Chinese New Year. And we had -- actually, we had a very strong first quarter last year in China. And then -- which is kind of still the back end of the reopening. And while we grew volumes for the rest and for the total of the year '23 and revenues, it did soften for the last 3 quarters of the year in China. And I think what we're going to see is kind of a reverse of that in '24.

當然。讓我這麼說吧——23 年在中國的起步非常強勁。我們在農曆新年期間投入了大量資金。事實上，去年第一季我們在中國的表現非常強勁。然後——這仍然是重新開放的最後階段。雖然我們在其餘時間以及 23 年的總銷量和收入方面都有所增長，但今年最後 3 個季度在中國的銷量確實有所疲軟。我認為我們將看到與 24 年相反的情況。

We've invested strongly again in Chinese New Year this year. We won't know the results for another few weeks, net-net. But we're kind of expecting it to be a little slower in the first quarter, especially given what we're cycling from last year, and then for the year to improve. But not too hot and not too cold, if I can use that analogy.

今年我們在農曆新年期間再次進行了大力投資。我們還要過幾週才能知道結果，淨淨。但我們預計第一季會放緩一些，特別是考慮到我們去年的情況，然後今年會有所改善。但如果我可以用這個比喻的話，不太熱也不太冷。

So yes, there's a little weakness in the economic system, but we expect things to get -- we get -- tend directionally to get better through the year. And we're going to keep investing behind not just key moments in the year like Chinese New Year, but restoring more momentum to sparkling and really focusing on RGM and execution opportunities.

所以，是的，經濟體系存在一些弱點，但我們預計今年情況會朝著好轉的方向發展。我們不僅會繼續投資於農曆新年等一年中的關鍵時刻，還會恢復更多的動力，真正關注 RGM 和執行機會。

Next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

When we met in December, we talked a little bit about 2023, there was a bunch of testing and learning on innovation and '24 will be about scaling some of them. Both of you mentioned fairlife, Core Power, it's a big brand now. Can you maybe just talk about the scaling of that capacity expansion, and then maybe what other brands we should be considering in that same context?

當我們在 12 月見面時，我們談論了一些關於 2023 年的事情，有很多關於創新的測試和學習，「24」將涉及擴展其中一些。你們兩個都提到了fairlife、Core Power，現在已經是大品牌了。您能否談談產能擴張的規模，然後我們應該在相同的背景下考慮哪些其他品牌？

Yes, sure. I mean, firstly, we're going to continue to experiment and find lots of new things, hopefully in 2024. But it's certainly true, as you say, that fairlife has been on a roll, and we have been driving that. I think it's had near double-digit volume growth for as many years I can remember plus faster double digits in revenue.

是的，當然。我的意思是，首先，我們將繼續嘗試並發現很多新事物，希望在 2024 年實現。但正如你所說，公平生活確實一直在發展，而我們一直在推動這一趨勢。我認為，在我記憶中的許多年裡，它的銷售量一直保持著接近兩位數的成長，而且收入也以更快的兩位數成長。

Clearly, as we've scaled that, we needed to put down more capacity. We have recently announced and begun the process of building a mega plant up in upstate New York. And so capacity is tight in the fairlife business and Core Power is also firing on all cylinders. We'll certainly talk about some of these at CAGNY when we'll kind of lay out some of the back story, things like fairlife, and particularly Core Power and how these brands and products have done a great job in driving from experimentation to scaling to challenging and for example, in the case of Core Power, to leading.

顯然，隨著我們規模的擴大，我們需要投入更多的產能。我們最近宣布並開始在紐約州北部建造一座大型工廠。因此，fairlife 業務的產能緊張，而 Core Power 也在全速運轉。當我們介紹一些背景故事時，我們肯定會在 CAGNY 上討論其中的一些內容，例如 Fairlife，特別是 Core Power，以及這些品牌和產品如何在從實驗到規模化的推動方面做得很好。挑戰，例如，就核心力量而言，領導力。

Our next question comes from Peter Grom from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的彼得‧葛羅姆。

So James, I was hoping to pick up on your commentary in response to Bryan and Andrea's question on the U.S. Maybe first, did performance in the quarter play out as you expected? You mentioned softening in the market in your response to Andrea, but was that in line with how you thought growth would evolve? Or was it a bit weaker than you would have anticipated?

所以詹姆斯，我希望聽到你對布萊恩和安德里亞關於美國的問題的評論。也許首先，本季度的表現是否達到了你的預期？您在回覆 Andrea 時提到了市場疲軟，但這符合您認為成長的演變方式嗎？或者它比你預期的要弱一些？

And then looking ahead to '24, I appreciate the commentary on expecting balanced growth at the total company level. But do you expect that balance to occur in North America as well?

然後展望 24 年，我很欣賞關於預期整個公司層面平衡成長的評論。但您預期北美也會出現這種平衡嗎？

Yes. Look, I mean, I think it was at a macro level foreseeable that the market would get tighter through the course of 2023 as inflation ran ahead of wage growth. And so therefore, yes, it wasn't surprising, that tightness, particularly for certain consumer segments.

是的。我的意思是，我認為在宏觀層面上可以預見的是，隨著通膨超過薪資成長，市場將在 2023 年變得更加緊張。因此，是的，這種緊縮並不奇怪，特別是對於某些消費群體而言。

I think all things in due proportion. I mean the growth in North America in the fourth quarter was basically the same as the growth in the full year, there's only very fractional differences. So I think these are not big changes in trends. But yes, I think there was a little softening through 2023. And I think we'll see that kind of a bit in reverse as '24 starts off, as consumers -- and you can see it in the confidence indicators, the consumers, they're starting to feel like the money coming in is starting to contain and get ahead of the inflation.

我認為凡事都有適當的比例。我的意思是北美第四季的成長與全年的成長基本上相同，只有很小的差異。所以我認為這些並不是趨勢的大改變。但是，是的，我認為到2023 年會有一點軟化。我認為，隨著24 年開始，我們會看到這種情況有點逆轉，作為消費者，你可以在信心指標中看到這一點，消費者，他們開始感覺到流入的資金開始遏制並領先通貨膨脹。

So I think we'll see that improve through the year. Again, all in due proportion. There are not going to be big shifts in the volume growth rate in the U.S. business.

所以我認為今年我們會看到這種情況有所改善。再次強調，一切都按比例進行。美國業務的銷量成長率不會有重大變化。

In aggregate, we would expect to get more from price relative to volume for the U.S. business. So the balance that I talk about between price and volume applies on a global basis. Clearly, that's then made up of geographic portfolio mix. So places like the U.S. We'd expect to see stable or slightly increasing volume with decent pricing, all the way over to places like India where clearly, we're getting much more volume than price and having to invest significantly in capacity. And those 2 -- take those 2 examples, but that's true of the global portfolio. Blend it all together, and that's where the balance comes from.

總的來說，我們預期美國業務的價格相對於銷售量會獲得更多收益。因此，我所說的價格和數量之間的平衡適用於全球。顯然，這是由地理投資組合組成的。因此，在美國等地，我們預期銷量會穩定或略有成長，且價格合理，而在印度等地，顯然我們的銷量遠高於價格，因此必須在產能上進行大量投資。就這兩個例子而言，全球投資組合也是如此。將它們混合在一起，這就是平衡的來源。

Our next question comes from Charlie Higgs from Redburn Atlantic.

我們的下一個問題來自雷德本大西洋月刊的查理·希格斯。

I've got a question on sparkling, please, where I mean, 2% volume growth in the quarter and the year, very strong. And I think in the '20 quarters since 2019, it's actually averaged 3% in those 20 quarters, so definitely not ex growth. And I was just wondering what your perspective is on the category going forward, maybe with the consumer weakening?

我有一個關於起泡酒的問題，我的意思是，本季和今年的銷量成長 2%，非常強勁。我認為自 2019 年以來的 20 個季度中，這 20 個季度的平均成長率實際上是 3%，所以絕對不是扣除成長。我只是想知道您對該類別的未來有何看法，也許是隨著消費者的疲軟？

And if you can just touch on the launch of Coca-Cola Spiced? So I don't think we've talked about that yet. I mean what gives you the confidence of launching this just as a permanent launch rather than a limited edition Coke Creations launch? Who is the target consumer? Is it going out of Gen Zs? Is it there to help with Coke-with-meals strategy? Just any color on that would be useful, please.

能談談五香可口可樂的推出嗎？所以我認為我們還沒有討論過這個問題。我的意思是，是什麼讓您有信心將其作為永久發布而不是限量版 Coke Creations 發布？目標消費者是誰？它會從 Z 世代中消失嗎？它可以幫助制定餐中可樂策略嗎？任何顏色都會有用，拜託。

Yes. I mean Coke Spiced, a bit like Coke Creations, not exactly, but is really aimed at increasing connectivity with Gen Z and the broader water consumers, driving engagement, driving reconsideration. It's part of a whole overall strategy that, as you say, we've been deploying for a good number of years that has really worked to reengage consumers with the Coke trademark, whether it's Coke Original or Coke Zero Sugar or even Diet Coke. Does that make sense?

是的。我的意思是 Coke Spiced，有點像 Coke Creations，雖然不完全一樣，但真正的目的是增加與 Z 世代和更廣泛的水消費者的聯繫，推動參與，推動重新考慮。正如您所說，這是整個整體策略的一部分，我們多年來一直在部署該策略，該策略確實有效地重新吸引了消費者對可口可樂商標的興趣，無論是原味可樂還是零糖可樂，甚至健怡可樂。那有意義嗎？

The overall strategy of an operated approach to the marketing, the innovation, whether it's Coke Spiced or some of the Creations through the RGM and the execution has allowed us to drive Coke growth across the global business. And actually, by also increasing the focus on Fanta and Sprite, even organizationally splitting them out into 2 sub teams within the organization has allowed us to bring more clarity and more focus onto Fanta and Sprite and to drive growth there, too, which has worked in Q4 in 2023, and as you say, over the last 5 years.

行銷、創新的營運方法的整體策略，無論是可口可樂還是透過 RGM 進行的一些創作，以及執行力都使我們能夠推動可口可樂在全球業務的成長。事實上，透過增加對芬達和雪碧的關注，甚至在組織內將它們分成兩個子團隊，使我們能夠更加明確和更加關注芬達和雪碧，並推動那裡的增長，這已經奏效了2023 年第四季度，正如你所說，在過去5 年裡。

I know that sometimes people -- well, I would say that people think about the sparkling category just through the optic of the U.S. over the last 20 years. And I would invite you to look at the optics -- or everyone to look at the optics of the sparkling category globally over time. And actually, there, you see that the category remains robust at a global scale, both in terms of volume and revenue growth. And of course, we are not just the leaders but we're the share winners. So we see, if we do the right things for our brands, we will be able to drive the category forward and benefit disproportionately from that growth.

我知道有時人們——嗯，我想說的是，人們只是透過過去 20 年美國的視角來思考氣泡酒類別。我會邀請你們看看光學——或者每個人都看看隨著時間的推移全球範圍內閃閃發光類別的光學。實際上，您會發現該類別在全球範圍內無論是數量還是收入成長方面都保持強勁。當然，我們不僅是領導者，而且是份額贏家。所以我們看到，如果我們為我們的品牌做正確的事情，我們將能夠推動該類別的發展，並從這種成長中獲得不成比例的利益。

Our last question today will come from Carlos Laboy from HSBC.

今天我們的最後一個問題將來自匯豐銀行的卡洛斯·拉博伊。

Can you comment for us on the state of global independent bottlers CapEx or digital capabilities? We've seen a really robust Latin American digital investment over the last 4 or 5 years. But where else do you see a step-up in digital market development capabilities like this? And can you comment on the U.S. in this area as well?

您能為我們評論一下全球獨立裝瓶商資本支出或數位能力的狀況嗎？在過去的四、五年裡，我們看到拉丁美洲的數位投資非常強勁。但您還能在哪裡看到像這樣的數位市場開發能力的提升呢？您能否評論一下美國在這方面的表現？

On U.S. what?

在美國什麼？

On the U.S. regarding digital bottling system investments.

關於美國有關數位裝瓶系統的投資。

You want to go, John?

你想去嗎，約翰？

Sure. Carlos, I think it's fair to say that the overall investment levels that you referred to in Lat Am are pretty consistent across the world. Like one of the underlying tailwinds, I believe, we have is the degree to which our system is sharing in us the opportunities ahead and willing to increasingly invest ahead of the curve. So I think that's happening across the global system.

當然。卡洛斯，我認為可以公平地說，您提到的拉丁美洲的整體投資水準在全球範圍內相當一致。我相信，就像潛在的順風之一一樣，我們的系統在多大程度上分享了我們未來的機會，並願意越來越多地提前投資。所以我認為這種情況正在全球體系中發生。

One of the subsets of that, of course, is the degree to which digital in its many forms is playing a pivotal role to sustaining and indeed building advantage wherever we operate. We have CAGNY next week. And I think you'll hear more of that threaded through the conversation we'll tee up there. But safe to say, I think CapEx levels are at the highest as a percentage of system revenue that I can remember. And within that, the appetite and willingness to invest ahead of the curve, particularly in digital is also at a very high level.

當然，其中的一個子集是，無論我們在何處開展業務，多種形式的數位化對於維持和建立優勢都發揮關鍵作用。下週我們有 CAGNY。我想您會在我們將在那裡進行的對話中聽到更多相關內容。但可以肯定地說，我認為資本支出佔系統收入的百分比是我記憶中的最高水準。其中，超前投資（尤其是數位領域）的興趣和意願也處於非常高的水平。

Great. Thanks very much, everyone. Just to summarize, we're proud of what we accomplished in 2023. We are winning in the marketplace. We're going to be maintaining agility and improving every aspect of how we do business across our total beverage portfolio.

偉大的。非常感謝大家。總而言之，我們對 2023 年所取得的成就感到自豪。我們正在市場上獲勝。我們將保持敏捷性並改進我們整個飲料產品組合業務的各個方面。

John and I look forward to discussing more with you all next week at CAGNY. Thank you for your interest, your investment in our company and joining us this morning. Thank you.

約翰和我期待下週在 CAGNY 與大家進行更多討論。感謝您對我們公司的興趣、投資以及今天早上加入我們。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。