可口可樂 (KO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Coca-Cola Company's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings results conference call.

現在，我歡迎大家參加可口可樂公司 2024 年第四季和全年獲利業績電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded.

今天的通話正在錄音。

If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time.

如果您有任何異議，請立即斷開連接。

(Operator Instructions) I would like to remind everyone that the purpose of this conference is to talk with investors, and therefore, questions from the media will not be addressed.

（操作員指示）我想提醒大家，這次會議的目的是與投資人對話，因此不會回答媒體的問題。

Media participants should contact Coca-Cola's Media Relations department if they have any questions.

媒體參與者如有任何疑問，請聯絡可口可樂的媒體關係部門。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Robin Halpern, Vice President and Head of Investor Relations.

現在，我想介紹副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Robin Halpern 先生。

Ms. Halpern, you may now begin.

哈爾彭女士，現在可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us.

早安，感謝您加入我們。

I'm here with James Quincey, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Murphy, our President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我一起在場的是我們的董事長兼執行長詹姆斯昆西 (James Quincey)；以及我們的總裁兼財務長約翰墨菲 (John Murphy)。

We've posted schedules under financial information in the Investors section of our company website.

我們在公司網站的投資者部分中的財務資訊中發布了時間表。

These reconcile certain non-GAAP financial measures that may be referred to this morning to results as reported under generally accepted accounting principles.

這些將今天上午可能提及的某些非 GAAP 財務指標與根據公認會計原則報告的結果進行協調。

You can also find schedules in the same section of our website that provide an analysis of our growth and operating margins.

您也可以在我們網站的同一部分找到有關我們的成長和營業利潤率的分析時間表。

This call may contain forward-looking statements, including statements concerning long-term earnings objectives which should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements contained in our earnings release and in the company's periodic SEC reports.

本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關長期盈利目標的陳述，這些陳述應與我們的盈利報告和公司定期的 SEC 報告中包含的警示性聲明一起考慮。

(Event Instructions) Now I will turn the call over to James.

（活動說明）現在我將把電話轉給詹姆斯。

Thanks, Robin, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，羅賓，大家早安。

We are pleased with our 2024 results, which include volume growth, robust organic revenue growth and comparable gross and operating margin expansion.

我們對 2024 年的業績感到滿意，包括銷量成長、強勁的有機收入成長以及可比較的毛利率和營業利潤率擴大。

This led to a 7% comparable earnings per share growth despite nearly double-digit currency headwinds and the impact of bottler refranchising.

儘管面臨近兩位數的貨幣逆風和瓶裝廠再特許經營的影響，每股可比收益仍增長了 7%。

These results reflect the continuation of delivering on our long-term commitments.

這些結果反映了我們繼續履行長期承諾。

Through our all-weather strategy, we've demonstrated we have agility to navigate what comes at us and continue to grow comparable earnings per share.

透過我們的全天候策略，我們已經證明我們可以靈活地應對各種挑戰，並繼續提高每股可比收益。

Given the strong momentum of our business, we're confident we can deliver on our 2025 guidance and longer-term objectives.

鑑於我們業務的強勁勢頭，我們有信心實現 2025 年的指導方針和長期目標。

With that as context, I'll next provide perspective on our industry and review our business performance across our segments in the fourth quarter.

基於此，我接下來將提供我們行業的觀點並回顧我們第四季度各部門的業務表現。

Then I'll explain how we're executing our strategy by amplifying what is working and fine-tuning where needed.

然後，我將解釋我們如何透過擴大有效的措施和在必要時進行微調來執行我們的策略。

John will end by discussing our financial results in more detail and providing an overview of our 2025 guidance.

最後，約翰將更詳細地討論我們的財務業績，並概述我們 2025 年的指導方針。

One of our fundamental strengths is that we operate in a great industry with steady growth.

我們的根本優勢之一是我們經營的行業非常出色且成長穩定。

No matter how you slice it by consumer, by customer, by beverage category, by geography, we have vast opportunities ahead of us.

不管你如何依照消費者、顧客、飲料類別和地理劃分，我們的前方都有巨大的機會。

During the quarter, we leveraged the power of our portfolio and the local expertise of our franchise system to capitalize on these opportunities.

在本季度，我們利用我們的投資組合的力量和我們的特許經營系統的本地專業知識來利用這些機會。

We won overall share and had broad-based share gains across our global beverage categories.

我們贏得了總體份額，並且全球飲料類別的份額普遍增長。

We're making progress across our total beverage portfolio delivering ongoing growth in sparkling soft drinks as well as momentum in other categories like value-added dairy and tea, which are reaching global scale while remaining tailored to local consumer need.

我們的整個飲料產品組合正在取得進展，碳酸飲料持續成長，加值乳製品和茶等其他類別也保持強勁發展勢頭，這些產品在達到全球規模的同時，仍能滿足當地消費者的需求。

And we're continuing to strengthen alignment across our system and we believe our global franchise model, which operates locally, is an advantage to drive long-term balanced growth.

我們將繼續加強整個系統的協調，我們相信，在本地運營的全球特許經營模式有利於推動長期均衡成長。

During the quarter, while our operating environment remained dynamic, consumer demand held up well and our industry remained strong.

在本季度，雖然我們的經營環境依然充滿活力，但消費者需求保持良好，我們的產業依然強勁。

Starting in Asia Pacific.

從亞太地區開始。

In ASEAN and South Pacific, we grew volume during the quarter and benefited from successful integrated marketing campaigns like Foodmarks, which were activated in over 7,000 outlets and led to Trademark Coca-Cola volume growth.

在東協和南太平洋地區，我們在本季度實現了銷售成長，並受益於 Foodmarks 等成功的整合行銷活動。

Our system also drove affordability by increasing refillable offerings and focusing on attractive price points.

我們的系統還透過增加可再填充產品和關注有吸引力的價格點來提高可負擔性。

Refillable offerings contributed to approximately one-third of ASEAN and South Pacific volume growth in 2024.

到 2024 年，可再填充產品貢獻了東協和南太平洋地區銷售成長的約三分之一。

In China, despite continued macro headwinds, we grew volumes during the quarter, and while early, we're seeing improved trends across our business.

在中國，儘管宏觀環境持續不利，但我們在本季的銷售量仍然實現了成長，而且雖然還處於初期，但我們看到整個業務的趨勢正在改善。

Trademark Coca-Cola continues to gain share and Sprite, Fanta and Minute Maid each improved volume performance.

可口可樂品牌的市佔率持續成長，雪碧、芬達和美汁源的銷售量均有所提升。

Our system is stepping up integrated execution in 2024 by accelerating placement of cold drink equipment and activating integrated marketing campaigns in key channels.

2024年，系統將加強整合執行力度，加速冷飲設備投放，並在重點管道進行整合行銷。

In Japan and South Korea, we grew volume during the quarter.

在日本和韓國，我們本季的銷量有所成長。

Innovation was a strong contributor to growth, led by resurgence of Ayataka and a number of other brands.

創新是成長的重要推動力，其中以 Ayataka 和其他一些品牌的復甦最為突出。

We're continuing to benefit from steady performance from Trademark Coca-Cola and stepped up integrated execution in key channels.

我們持續受惠於可口可樂商標的穩定表現以及加強關鍵管道的整合執行。

In India, our business rebounded nicely during the quarter and we grew volume.

在印度，我們的業務在本季強勁反彈，銷售量也有所成長。

We recruited consumers with innovative marketing campaigns that link Coca-Cola with music, Sprite with travel and Thums Up with movies.

我們透過創新的行銷活動吸引消費者，將可口可樂與音樂、雪碧與旅行、Thums Up與電影連結。

And Maaza is now our 30th billion-dollar brand.

現在，Maaza 已經成為我們的第 30 個價值 10 億美元的品牌。

In 2024, our system added approximately 440,000 outlets to our digital customer platforms in India, which provides more opportunities to better tailor our product, price and packaging offerings.

2024 年，我們的系統為印度的數位客戶平台增加了約 440,000 個網點，這為更好地客製化我們的產品、價格和包裝產品提供了更多機會。

Moving on to EMEA.

繼續前往歐洲、中東和非洲地區。

In Europe, volume declined during the quarter with mixed performance across Western and Eastern markets.

在歐洲，本季銷量下降，西方和東方市場表現不一。

Despite volume pressure, we grew both revenue and profit.

儘管面臨銷售壓力，我們的營收和利潤仍然成長。

We're engaging consumers with experiential marketing campaigns like the world needs more Fantas, the Trademark Coca-Cola and by linking our brands to new occasions like Sprite with spicy meals.

我們透過體驗式行銷活動吸引消費者，例如世界需要更多的芬達、商標可口可樂，並將我們的品牌與新場合聯繫起來，例如雪碧和辛辣食物。

Also, innovation velocities and multiyear innovation success rates both performed well in 2024.

此外，2024 年的創新速度和多年創新成功率都表現良好。

We're seeing good traction on Fuze Tea, POWERADE Zero, Jack & Coke and Absolut & Sprite.

我們看到 Fuze Tea、POWERADE Zero、Jack & Coke 和 Absolut & Sprite 的銷量很好。

In Eurasia and Middle East, despite a confluence of continued macro headwinds, we returned to volume growth during the quarter.

在歐亞大陸和中東，儘管宏觀不利因素持續存在，但我們在本季恢復了銷售成長。

We're emphasizing the localness of our business and seeing positive responses.

我們強調業務的本地化，並看到了積極的反響。

For example, the Made In, Made By campaign in Turkey led to strong volume growth for Trademark Coca-Cola.

例如，土耳其生產的「可口可樂，本土製造」活動推動了可口可樂品牌的銷售強勁成長。

Fuze Tea also had good momentum across the region.

Fuze Tea 在整個地區也呈現良好發展動能。

Our system is driving affordability and stepping up integrated execution by increasing cooler placement and share of visible inventory during the year.

我們的系統正在透過增加冷藏箱的放置位置和可見庫存的份額來提高可負擔性並加強綜合執行。

In Africa, volume declined during the quarter, driven primarily by pressure in North Africa and Nigeria and partially offset by strong volume momentum in South Africa.

在非洲，本季銷量下降，主要原因是北非和奈及利亞的壓力，但被南非強勁的銷售勢頭部分抵消。

We took action during the quarter by adjusting our pack -- price architecture to further drive our ability.

我們在本季採取了行動，調整了我們的包裝——價格架構，以進一步提升我們的能力。

Our system is investing for the long term, adding refillable offerings, placing more cold drink equipment and increasing manufacturing capacity in 2024.

我們的系統正在進行長期投資，增加可再填充產品，放置更多冷飲設備，並在 2024 年提高製造能力。

In Latin America, despite some macroeconomic pressures, we grew volume, revenue and profit during the quarter.

在拉丁美洲，儘管面臨一些宏觀經濟壓力，但我們本季的銷售、收入和利潤仍實現成長。

We drove trial and recruited weekly plus drinkers for Trademark Coca-Cola in 2024 by better linking the brand to the meal occasion.

我們將在 2024 年為品牌可口可樂進行試驗並招募每週飲用者，以便更好地將品牌與用餐場合聯繫起來。

Also, to drive balanced top line growth, our system focused on increasing single-serve offerings.

此外，為了推動平衡的營收成長，我們的系統專注於增加單份產品。

Over 90% of our fragmented trade customers are now on our system's digital customer platforms, allowing for greater opportunity to tailor offerings to customers' individual needs.

我們 90% 以上的分散貿易客戶現在都使用我們系統的數位客戶平台，這為我們根據客戶的個人需求提供客製化產品提供了更大的機會。

Lastly, in North America, we grew both transactions and volume and had robust top line and profit growth during the quarter.

最後，在北美，我們的交易量和銷售量均有所成長，本季的營收和利潤均實現了強勁成長。

Trademark Coca-Cola and fairlife remained leaders in at-home retail sales growth.

品牌可口可樂和 fairlife 仍然在家庭零售額成長方面處於領先地位。

Sparkling flavors gained share during the quarter due to successful limited time innovations like Sprite winter spiced cranberry and Fanta Beetlejuice and stepped up integrated execution focused on increased point-of-sale messaging and increased share of visible inventory.

由於雪碧冬季香料蔓越莓味和芬達甲蟲汁等成功的限時創新，以及加強了以增加銷售點資訊和增加可見庫存份額為重點的綜合執行，本季度氣泡飲料的市場份額有所增加。

Consumers responded well to value messaging in away-from-home channels, and we increased distribution of key affordable and premium offerings and benefited from product, package and channel mix in the quarter.

消費者對非家庭通路的價值資訊反應良好，我們增加了主要平價和優質產品的分銷，並受益於本季的產品、包裝和通路組合。

To sum everything up, we have good momentum in our business.

總而言之，我們的業務發展勢頭良好。

We're responding to market dynamics locally to execute on our global objectives.

我們正在響應本地市場動態以實現我們的全球目標。

While we're delivering on our near-term commitments, we're also investing to improve execution, build capabilities and get more granular across our strategic growth flywheel.

在履行近期承諾的同時，我們也在進行投資，以提高執行力、建構能力，並使我們策略性成長飛輪更加精細化。

Our network marketing model is integrating product, digital, live and retail experiences and we are harnessing passion points to connect with consumers in more personalized ways.

我們的網路行銷模式整合了產品、數位、現場和零售體驗，我們利用熱情點以更個人化的方式與消費者建立聯繫。

One great example, Fanta Halloween was our first ever global Halloween activation and was scaled to nearly 50 markets.

一個很好的例子是，芬達萬聖節活動是我們首次全球萬聖節活動，並且擴展到近 50 個市場。

Partnering with Warner Bros.

與華納兄弟合作

Pictures, we've created a limited time Fanta Beetlejuice haunted apple flavor.

圖中，我們創造了限時芬達甲蟲汁鬧鬼蘋果味。

Consumers scanned packages to access personalized experiences and we replicated the Beetlejuice Afterlife train taking over train stations, trams and metros.

消費者透過掃描包裹來獲得個人化體驗，我們複製了《甲蟲汁來世》列車佔領火車站、電車和地鐵的場景。

The campaign was activated in-store with our largest customers and contributed to sparkling flavors' share gain during the quarter.

該活動在我們最大的客戶店內開展，並促進了本季起泡口味的份額成長。

Our culture increasingly emphasizes acting boldly, learning and scaling successes.

我們的文化越來越強調大膽行動、學習和擴大成功。

This year, for the first time, our Coca-Cola Christmas ad was created with generative AI, combining emerging technology with human creativity, which allowed us to produce the ad faster and at a lower cost.

今年，我們的可口可樂聖誕廣告首次採用生成式人工智慧製作，將新興技術與人類的創造力結合，讓我們能夠更快、更低成本地製作廣告。

The power of emerging technologies like generative AI are still at early stages and we will continue to lead and iterate our approach.

生成式人工智慧等新興技術的力量仍處於早期階段，我們將繼續引領和迭代我們的方法。

We're seeing tangible results from our marketing transformation.

我們看到了行銷轉型的實質成果。

Over the past three years, Trademark Coca-Cola's retail sales have increased approximately $40 billion.

在過去三年中，可口可樂商標的零售額成長了約400億美元。

According to TIME Magazine, Coca-Cola, Minute Maid and fairlife were named world's best brands in their respective beverage categories in 2024.

根據《時代》雜誌報道，可口可樂、美汁源和fairlife被評為2024年各自飲料類別中的全球最佳品牌。

While we're building capabilities in marketing, we're also focusing on innovation that prioritizes bigger and bolder bets.

在我們建立行銷能力的同時，我們也注重優先進行更大、更大膽的創新。

Each of our innovations has clear objectives.

我們的每項創新都有明確的目標。

Sometimes we innovate to create a short-term buzz like Coke and OREO or Sprite winter spiced cranberry.

有時，我們會進行創新以創造短期熱潮，就像可樂和奧利奧或雪碧冬季香料蔓越莓一樣。

In other instances, we innovate for lasting impact.

在其他情況下，我們進行創新是為了產生持久的影響。

This year, we focused on sustaining investments behind key innovations to improve multiyear success rates and drive greater impact.

今年，我們專注於持續投資關鍵創新，以提高多年成功率並產生更大的影響。

This is paying off as Fuze Tea grew retail value 3 times faster than the tea category.

這項舉措獲得了豐厚回報，因為 Fuze Tea 的零售價值成長速度是茶葉類別的 3 倍。

Topo Chico Sabores continued its momentum and Minute Maid Zero Sugar realized strong growth.

Topo Chico Sabores 延續了良好的發展勢頭，Minute Maid Zero Sugar 實現了強勁增長。

In 2024, innovation contributed strongly to revenue growth and our innovation success rates improved for the prior year.

2024年，創新對營收成長貢獻巨大，我們的創新成功率較前一年提高。

We're excited about our innovation pipeline for 2025.

我們對 2025 年的創新管道感到非常興奮。

Moving across our top line flywheel.

穿過我們的頂線飛輪。

Our system is investing heavily in digital capabilities and sticking to the fundamentals of commercial excellence to accelerate consumer recruitment, increase consumption and win in the market.

我們的系統正在大力投資數位化能力，並堅持商業卓越的基本原則，以加速消費者招募、增加消費並贏得市場。

Ensuring product availability is one of our system's greatest strengths yet we still have tremendous opportunity.

確保產品的可用性是我們系統的最大優勢之一，但我們仍然擁有巨大的機會。

While our system improved share of visible inventory in 2024 and our brands are found in 33 million outlets, there remains ample headroom to increase outlet coverage, reduce out-of-stocks and better tailor our offerings with the right placements.

雖然我們的系統在 2024 年提高了可見庫存份額，並且我們的品牌已覆蓋 3300 萬個門店，但仍有足夠的空間來增加門市覆蓋率，減少缺貨情況，並通過正確的展示位置更好地定制我們的產品。

Basket incidence is another opportunity.

籃子發生率是另一個機會。

Winning just 1 point of global beverage incidence translates into over $40 billion in additional retail sales.

在全球飲料銷售中贏得 1 分就意味著增加 400 多億美元的零售額。

To drive basket incidence, our system is focused on better activating integrated marketing campaigns in key channels, increasing point-of-sale displays and winning impulse zones outside the traditional beverage aisle.

為了提高購物籃的購買率，我們的系統專注於更好地在關鍵管道開展整合行銷活動，增加銷售點展示，並贏得傳統飲料貨架之外的衝動區。

Finally, cold drink equipment is one of the strongest consumption drivers in our system's toolbox.

最後，冷飲設備是我們系統工具箱中最強大的消費驅動因素之一。

With approximately 14 million units of cold drink equipment present in our approximately 33 million customer outlets, we have significant opportunity to drive consumption by placing more cold drink equipment.

我們約有 3,300 萬個客戶網點擁有約 1,400 萬台冷飲設備，透過投放更多冷飲設備，我們有巨大的機會推動消費。

In 2024, our system invested to add nearly 600,000 coolers.

2024年，我們系統投資新增近60萬台冷卻器。

Strong commercial execution is enabled by our revenue growth management capabilities, which fuel both top line growth and margin expansion.

我們的營收成長管理能力實現了強大的商業執行力，推動了營收成長和利潤率擴大。

We're driving affordability and premiumization across our total beverage portfolio.

我們正在推動整個飲料產品組合的經濟實惠和高端化。

The strong elasticities we're realizing today are a testament to the progress we're making in this area.

我們今天實現的強大彈性證明了我們在這領域的進步。

By focusing on availability, basket incidence and cold drink equipment, coupled with great marketing, innovation and revenue growth management, our system recruited weekly [plus] drinkers, grew volume and won share in 2024.

透過專注於可用性、籃子發生率和冷飲設備，再加上出色的營銷、創新和收入成長管理，我們的系統每週招募 [+] 名飲酒者，增加銷量並在 2024 年贏得份額。

While we made steady progress executing our all-weather strategy in 2024, we're operating with the mindset that we're only just getting started.

雖然我們在 2024 年執行全天候策略方面取得了穩步進展，但我們的營運心態才剛起步。

As we turn the page to 2025, we anticipate the year will bring both opportunities and challenges.

當我們翻開2025年的新篇章時，我們預見這一年將充滿機會和挑戰。

While we expect the external environment will be dynamic, several underpinnings remain constant: one, we operate in a great industry; two, we have many opportunities available to us and we are primed to capture these and deliver sustained performance; three, our powerful portfolio of brands, pervasive distribution system and the unwavering dedication of our system employees are clear advantages.

雖然我們預期外部環境將是動態的，但有幾個基本支撐保持不變：第一，我們經營著一個偉大的產業；二是我們面臨許多機遇，我們已準備好去抓住這些機遇，並持續取得成果；三、我們強大的品牌組合、遍布各地的分銷系統以及系統員工堅定不移的奉獻精神是明顯的優勢。

Next Tuesday, at CAGNY, I look forward to sharing more about how we're leading to deliver results in all types of backdrops, and I encourage everyone to listen.

下週二，在CAGNY，我期待分享更多關於我們如何在各種背景下取得成果的信息，並鼓勵每個人都傾聽。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，詹姆斯，大家早安。

We closed the year with strong fourth quarter results.

我們以強勁的第四季業績結束了這一財年。

And as James said earlier, we delivered 7% comparable earnings per share growth in 2024 on top of 6% average comparable earnings per share growth over the prior five years.

正如詹姆斯之前所說，我們在過去五年平均每股收益成長 6% 的基礎上，在 2024 年實現了 7% 的每股盈餘成長。

During the fourth quarter, we grew organic revenues 14%.

第四季度，我們的有機收入成長了 14%。

Unit case growth was 2%, which is in line with our multiyear trend.

單位個案成長率為 2%，這與我們的多年趨勢一致。

Concentrate sales grew 3 points ahead of unit cases, driven primarily by two additional days in the quarter and the timing of concentrate shipments.

精礦銷售量比單位箱數增加了 3 個百分點，這主要得益於本季的額外兩天以及精礦出貨的時間。

Our price/mix growth of 9% was driven by two items: approximately 8 points of pricing split somewhat evenly between normal pricing actions across our markets and intense inflationary pricing in a handful of markets experiencing currency devaluations, and approximately 1 point of favorable mix.

我們的價格/產品組合成長 9% 是由兩項因素推動的：大約 8 個點的定價在我們整個市場的正常定價行為和少數經歷貨幣貶值的市場中的劇烈通膨定價之間平均分配，以及大約 1 個點的有利組合。

Excluding the impact of intense inflationary pricing, organic revenue growth was above our long-term growth algorithm.

排除劇烈通膨定價的影響，有機收入成長高於我們的長期成長演算法。

Comparable gross margin was up approximately 160 basis points and comparable operating margin was up approximately 80 basis points.

可比毛利率上升約 160 個基點，可比營業利益率上升約 80 個基點。

Bottlers refranchising had a greater benefit to comparable gross margin and currency headwinds had a larger impact to comparable operating margin.

瓶裝水企業重新特許經營對可比毛利率有較大益處，而貨幣逆風對可比營業利潤率有較大影響。

Putting it altogether, fourth quarter comparable EPS of $0.55 was up 12% year-over-year despite 11% currency headwinds and 4% headwinds from bottler refranchising.

總體來看，儘管面臨 11% 的貨幣阻力和 4% 的瓶裝水特許經營權阻力，第四季度可比每股收益仍為 0.55 美元，同比增長 12%。

Free cash flow excluding the IRS tax litigation deposit was $10.8 billion in 2024, an increase of 11% versus prior year.

2024 年不包括國稅局稅務訴訟存款的自由現金流為 108 億美元，比上年增長 11%。

This increase was primarily driven by strong business performance and timing of working capital initiatives, partially offset by higher capital expenditures and higher tax payments.

這一成長主要得益於強勁的業務表現和營運資本計劃的時機，但被更高的資本支出和更高的稅收部分抵消。

In 2024, adjusted free cash flow conversion was 93%, which is within our long-term targeted range.

2024年，調整後的自由現金流轉換率為93%，在我們的長期目標範圍內。

Our balance sheet is strong, and our net debt leverage of 1.8 times EBITDA is below our targeted range of 2 to 2.5 times.

我們的資產負債表強勁，淨負債槓桿率為 EBITDA 的 1.8 倍，低於我們 2 至 2.5 倍的目標範圍。

If you include our latest estimate of $6.2 billion related to our fairlife contingent consideration payment, our expected net debt leverage would be at a low end of our targeted range.

如果算上我們最新的 62 億美元公平生活或有對價支付估計，我們預期的淨債務槓桿將處於目標範圍的低端。

As James mentioned, 2025 will likely bring both opportunities and challenges.

正如詹姆斯所說，2025年可能既帶來機會也帶來挑戰。

Enabled by our all-weather strategy, we have demonstrated our ability to deliver on our objectives and long-term growth.

在我們的全天候策略的支持下，我們已證明我們有能力實現目標和長期成長。

Our 2025 guidance builds on the enduring momentum of our business.

我們的 2025 年指引建立在我們業務的持久發展勢頭之上。

We expect organic revenue growth of 5% to 6% and comparable currency-neutral earnings per share growth of 8% to 10%, both of which reflect delivery at the high end of our long-term growth algorithm.

我們預期有機收入成長率為 5% 至 6%，可比貨幣中性每股收益成長率為 8% 至 10%，這兩項成績都反映了我們長期成長演算法的高端成果。

We continue to focus on driving balanced volume and price/mix and anticipate intense inflationary pricing will play a smaller role in 2025 and will moderate throughout the year.

我們將繼續致力於推動產量和價格/組合的平衡，並預計激烈的通膨定價將在 2025 年發揮較小的作用，並將在全年得到緩和。

Bottler refranchising is expected to be a slight headwind to comparable net revenues and comparable earnings per share as we cycle the impact of bottler refranchising in 2024.

隨著我們在 2024 年循環瓶裝企業再特許經營的影響，預計瓶裝企業再特許經營將對可比淨收入和可比每股收益產生輕微阻力。

We'll continue to invest appropriately behind our brands while also driving productivity across all areas of marketing.

我們將繼續對我們的品牌進行適當的投資，同時提高所有行銷領域的生產力。

Next week at CAGNY, we'll discuss further our marketing transformation, and enhanced resource allocation capabilities give us confidence in our ability to continue to drive more productivity.

下週在CAGNY，我們將進一步討論我們的行銷轉型，增強的資源配置能力使我們對繼續提高生產力的能力充滿信心。

While we expect expense to be elevated versus prior year, we believe the step-up is manageable and we're not expecting significant leverage or deleverage below the line.

雖然我們預計支出將比去年同期增加，但我們認為這種成長是可控的，而且我們預計不會出現大幅的槓桿率或去槓桿率。

Based on current rates and our hedge positions, we anticipate an approximate 3 to 4 point currency headwind to comparable net revenues and an approximate 6 to 7 point currency headwind to comparable earnings per share for full year 2025.

根據當前匯率和我們的對沖頭寸，我們預計 2025 年全年可比淨收入將遭遇約 3 至 4 個百分點的貨幣逆風，可比每股收益將遭遇約 6 至 7 個百分點的貨幣逆風。

Our underlying effective tax rate for 2025 is expected to increase to 20.8% and which is driven primarily by the impact of several countries enacting the global minimum tax regulations.

我們預計 2025 年的基本有效稅率將增至 20.8%，這主要受到多個國家頒布全球最低稅法規的影響。

All in, we expect comparable earnings per share growth of 2% to 3% and versus $2.88 in 2024.

總體而言，我們預計每股收益可比成長率為 2% 至 3%，而 2024 年為 2.88 美元。

Excluding the fairlife contingent consideration payment, we expect to generate approximately $9.5 billion of free cash flow in 2025 through approximately $11.7 billion in cash from operations less approximately $2.2 billion in capital investments.

不包括公平生活或有對價支付，我們預計 2025 年將透過約 117 億美元的經營現金減去約 22 億美元的資本投資產生約 95 億美元的自由現金流。

Included in this guidance are two items to highlight.

本指南中有兩項內容需要強調。

One, a $1.2 billion transition tax payment, an increase of approximately $240 million versus 2024.

一是12億美元的過渡稅，比2024年增加約2.4億美元。

This is the final year that we will make a payment related to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.

這是我們支付與 2017 年減稅與就業法案相關的款項的最後一年。

Number two, we expect that part of the timing of working capital initiatives that benefited 2024 free cash flow will reverse and impact 2025 free cash flow.

第二，我們預計，有利於 2024 年自由現金流的營運資本計畫的部分時機將發生逆轉，並影響 2025 年的自由現金流。

Driven by our underlying cash flow generation, we have flexibility to invest in our business and return capital to share owners.

在我們基礎現金流產生的推動下，我們可以靈活地投資我們的業務並向股東返還資本。

A significant portion of our expected capital investment is to build capacity for fairlife and to continue to invest in our system in India and Africa.

我們預期的資本投資很大一部分用於建立 fairlife 的能力，並繼續投資我們在印度和非洲的系統。

With respect to acquisitions and divestitures, we're making good progress on our agenda.

關於收購和資產剝離，我們的議程正在取得良好進展。

Since 2006, we've added $9 billion brands via acquisition.

自 2006 年以來，我們透過收購增加了價值 90 億美元的品牌。

Importantly, only three of these brands were [billion-dollar] brands at the time of acquisition demonstrating progress in scaling acquisitions.

重要的是，這些品牌中只有三個在收購時是[十億美元]品牌，展示了擴大收購方面的進展。

In 2024, we realized $3.5 billion in gross proceeds from refranchising.

2024 年，我們透過再特許經營實現了 35 億美元的總收益。

Bottling investments as a percent of consolidated net revenue is 13%, down from 52% in 2015.

瓶裝投資佔合併淨收入的百分比為 13%，低於 2015 年的 52%。

Return on invested capital is up 6 points over the same time.

投資資本報酬率同期上升了 6 個百分點。

Related to capital return, we have an unwavering priority to grow our dividend as we've done for 62 consecutive years.

關於資本回報，我們總是把增加股利當作首要任務，我們已經連續 62 年這麼做了。

Our dividend is supported by our long-term free cash flow generation.

我們的股利由長期自由現金流產生支持。

In 2024, dividends paid as a percent of adjusted free cash flow was 73%.

2024 年，支付的股利佔調整後自由現金流的百分比為 73%。

On share repurchases, we've typically repurchased shares to offset any dilution from the exercise of stock options by employees in the given year.

在股票回購方面，我們通常會回購股票以抵銷當年員工行使股票選擇權所造成的稀釋。

Our capital allocation policy prioritizes agility, and we're committed to driving the long-term health of our business and creating value for our stakeholders.

我們的資本配置政策優先考慮靈活性，我們致力於推動業務的長期健康發展並為利害關係人創造價值。

There are some considerations to keep in mind for 2025.

對於 2025 年，有一些事情需要注意。

We expect bottler refranchising to have a greater impact to comparable net revenues and comparable earnings per share during the first quarter as we cycle the impact of refranchising the Philippines, which closed during the first quarter of 2024.

我們預計，隨著我們對菲律賓特許經營權再融資的影響進行循環，瓶裝瓶商特許經營權再融資將對第一季度的可比淨收入和可比每股收益產生更大影響，菲律賓特許經營權再融資於 2024 年第一季關閉。

We expect the productivity benefits that I previously discussed to have a larger impact during the latter half of 2025.

我們預計，我之前討論過的生產力效益將在 2025 年下半年產生更大的影響。

Due to our reporting calendar, there will be two less days in the first quarter and one additional day in the fourth quarter.

根據我們的報告日曆，第一季將減少兩天，第四季將增加一天。

So in summary, we're successfully executing our all-weather strategy to deliver on our objectives.

總而言之，我們成功執行了全天候策略，並實現了我們的目標。

Our system remains incredibly focused and motivated.

我們的系統仍然保持著高度的專注和積極性。

We will continue to invest with discipline and believe we're well positioned to drive quality top line growth and deliver continued margin expansion.

我們將繼續嚴格投資，並相信我們有能力推動優質的營收成長並持續擴大利潤率。

A hallmark of our company since its inception has been our ability to create enduring value over time, and we expect to continue to do so.

自公司成立以來，我們的一個標誌就是我們能夠隨著時間的推移創造持久的價值，並且我們希望繼續這樣做。

With that, operator, we are ready to take questions.

接線員，現在我們可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays Bank.

巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

Great thanks good morning everyone.

非常感謝大家早安。

The business seemed to buck the trend that we've seen from many other staples companies between strong 4Q results and the conviction in upper end of the sales algorithm for 2025.

這項業務似乎逆轉了我們從許多其他主食公司看到的趨勢，既有強勁的第四季度業績，又有對 2025 年銷售演算法上限的信心。

So I'd just be curious to hear more from you about your perspective about the consumer environment globally, particularly in developed markets where US sentiment has been so mixed.

因此，我很好奇想聽聽您對全球消費環境的看法，特別是對美國情緒複雜的已開發市場的看法。

Western Europe, there have been some flags on certain markets lagging.

西歐某些市場已經出現了一些滯後的跡象。

So curious your kind of global perspective on the consumer environment.

我很好奇您對消費環境的全球視野。

Sure.

當然。

I think the overall consumer environment is pretty stable in the sense that there's good economic growth on a broad-based view around the world and that includes both the developed and the emerging markets.

我認為整體消費環境相當穩定，從全球來看，包括已開發市場和新興市場，經濟成長良好。

If I look at the developed markets, whilst it is absolutely true that the lower income segments in the US and perhaps even more notably in Europe and Western Europe are under disposable income pressure and have been in '24 and quite possibly will continue for some part of '25, the rest of the consumer base is actually still gaining in terms of disposable income and is spending.

如果我看一下已開發市場，雖然美國、甚至更明顯的歐洲和西歐的低收入人群確實面臨著可支配收入的壓力，並且這種壓力已經持續到了2024年，並且很可能還會持續到2025年的某個時候，但其餘消費者群體的可支配收入實際上仍在增加，並且仍在支出。

Maybe spending a little more in the US, North America than Western Europe where there was more direction to saving, but a pretty strong sustained demand level across the developed world.

也許美國和北美的支出會比西歐多一點，因為西歐的儲蓄方向更多，但已開發國家的需求水準持續強勁。

And similarly, in the emerging markets, yes, it's a little more volatile in ups and downs.

同樣地，在新興市場中，它的波動性也更大一些。

But in aggregate, again, you see pretty robust or enduring consumer demand.

但從整體來看，你仍然看到相當強勁或持久的消費者需求。

In the quarter, we saw India rebound.

本季度，我們看到印度出現反彈。

We saw China get a bit better.

我們看到中國的情況有所好轉。

The Middle East got a bit better.

中東的情況稍有好轉。

They're still doing pretty well in Latin America, a little softer, perhaps in Africa.

他們在拉丁美洲的表現仍然很好，但在非洲可能稍微差一點。

But overall, we see continued robustness and growth across consumers that we need to respond to with all the strategies that we have.

但總體而言，我們看到消費者持續保持強勁和成長勢頭，我們需要運用現有的所有策略來應對這種情況。

It's not going to be a one-size-fits-all.

它不會是一個適合所有情況的萬能方案。

We need to focus on delivering for them with the marketing and the innovation and the execution and particularly the affordability and premiumization.

我們需要專注於透過行銷、創新和執行為他們提供服務，特別是可負擔性和高端化。

So the demand is there, and I think what you see in the fourth quarter has been our ability to focus on what we have to do to get a good result for the company.

所以需求是存在的，我認為您在第四季度看到的是我們有能力專注於我們必須做的事情，以便為公司取得良好的表現。

And that's what we're confident in continuing for 2025.

我們有信心在 2025 年繼續保持這樣的勢頭。

Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

So just on that 5% to 6% organic revenue growth forecast for 2025, can you just give us a bit more granularity on the balance between volume that you see as well as price and mix?

那麼，僅就 2025 年 5% 至 6% 的有機收入成長預測而言，您能否更詳細地說明您所看到的銷量以及價格和組合之間的平衡？

And just wanted to focus on your plans on the pricing component in 2025.

我只想重點談談您在 2025 年的定價部分計劃。

You mentioned there's some stress on the low-end consumer in a few markets after inflation in recent years.

您提到，近年來通貨膨脹給一些市場的低端消費者帶來了一些壓力。

But clearly, with your Q4 results, the overall consumer seems to be handling pricing from Coke well.

但顯然，從第四季的業績來看，整體消費者似乎能夠很好地接受可口可樂的定價。

There's also FX pressure.

此外還有外匯壓力。

So there's just a number of volatile external circumstances.

因此，存在一些不穩定的外部環境。

Just how does that impact how you manage pricing in 2025 and how that might be different than a typical year, either on the pricing or the mix front?

這對您在 2025 年的定價管理有何影響？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

Look, I think -- let's start from the top level down on '25.

看，我認為－－讓我們從'25'的頂層開始。

Our long-term algorithm we called out we want to be at the top end, so 5% to 6% and expect in the long term a balance between volume and price, so I'd say 2% to 3% of each.

我們的長期演算法是，我們希望處於最高端，所以是 5% 到 6%，並期望長期內數量和價格之間保持平衡，所以我認為每種比例是 2% 到 3%。

It seems more likely in '25 there'll be a little more price and a little less volume, but there will be volume growth and obviously there will be price growth.

看起來，25 年價格可能會略有上漲，而銷量可能會略有下降，但銷量將會增長，價格顯然也會增長。

But perhaps a little -- weighted a little more to price than volume than a long-term year but still solid continued volume momentum, which has been an enduring feature of what we have pursued over the last number of years, which is not just keeping people in our franchise, but growing our franchise for the long term.

但或許有一點——與長期相比，價格比銷量稍微重要一些，但銷量仍然保持穩固的持續增長勢頭，這是我們過去幾年一直追求的一個持久特徵，這不僅是讓人們留在我們的特許經營中，而且是長期發展我們的特許經營權。

And so that's the headline of what we expect to see.

這就是我們期望看到的標題。

And I would say like if you take 2024, where you've got a kind of a headline price/mix of about 10%, half of that is from these high-inflation countries, which we expect to largely drop out in 2025.

我想說，如果以 2024 年為例，總體價格/組合約為 10%，其中一半來自這些高通膨國家，我們預計這些國家將在 2025 年大幅下降。

Another way of thinking of it is really ex high inflation, you had about 5% price/mix in 2024 and you're going to see that continue to moderate as inflation has moderated down to a kind of a slightly lower number in 2025 and largely the dropout of these high-inflation countries in 2025, if that helped give you a factor.

另一種思考方式是，從高通膨的角度來看，2024 年的價格/組合約為 5%，而你會看到，隨著通膨在 2025 年放緩至略低的數字，以及這些高通膨國家在 2025 年基本退出，這一趨勢將繼續緩和，如果這有助於給你一個因素的話。

And so we feel we've got a level of actual pricing in the marketplace that is proportionate and reasonable relative to inflation and relative to what we can support through the actions we're taking across the whole flywheel from the marketing, the innovation, the execution, the RGM through affordability and premiumization and all the commercial execution.

因此，我們認為，我們在市場上已經獲得了一個相對於通貨膨脹率以及我們通過從營銷、創新、執行、RGM到可負擔性和高端化以及所有商業執行等整個飛輪領域採取的行動所能支持的合理實際定價水平。

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

美國銀行的布萊恩‧斯皮蘭 (Bryan Spillane)。

Hey, thanks, operator.

嘿，謝謝，接線生。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Maybe just to pick up on Dara's question.

也許只是為了回答達拉的問題。

Maybe, John, can you -- and James, can you give us just two perspectives.

也許，約翰，你能──還有詹姆斯，你能給我們兩個觀點嗎？

One, as we think about the organic sales growth for 2025, just given some of the -- I guess, some of the moving parts we saw in 4Q, just how should we kind of think about it from a phasing perspective?

首先，當我們考慮 2025 年的有機銷售成長時，考慮到我們在第四季度看到的一些變化因素，我們應該如何從分階段的角度來思考它？

Does the -- I guess, does the pricing from some of the emerging markets or inflationary countries kind of fade as we move through the year?

我想，隨著時間的推移，一些新興市場或通膨國家的定價是否會逐漸消退？

So that's the first one.

這是第一個。

And the second, maybe if you could also just give us a context of 5% to 6% organic sales growth and how that stands against kind of industry growth?

第二，您能否向我們介紹 5% 至 6% 的有機銷售成長情況，以及這與產業成長相比的情況？

If you can give us some perspective on kind of what the exit rate was for the industry and maybe what you're thinking about for next year?

您能否向我們介紹一下該行業的退出率是多少，以及您對明年的計劃是什麼？

And then just last one, I forgot -- I should have called this out last time, but the hold music is amazing.

然後只剩下最後一個了，我忘了——我上次應該說出來，但等待音樂太棒了。

It was a real nice change.

這真是一個好的改變。

And I just want to make sure that, that gets recognized.

我只是想確保這一點能夠得到認可。

Robin doing her job.

羅賓正在做她的工作。

Thanks, Bryan.

謝謝，布萊恩。

Well, I'm glad the last comment was not a question, so it's passed on.

好吧，我很高興最後一條評論不是一個問題，所以它被傳遞了。

On the guidance for the -- well, I'm not going to get into a lot of commentary inside the quarter.

關於本季的指引——嗯，我不會對此季度的業績發表太多評論。

We do have two less days in the quarter.

本季我們確實少了兩天。

Coming out of '24 decent momentum going into it.

24 年後，我們迎來了良好的發展動能。

.

。

On the pricing front, some inflation in -- from the more intense markets in Q1, which we expect to moderate throughout the year.

在定價方面，第一季較為激烈的市場出現了一些通膨，我們預計這種通膨將在全年得到緩和。

And on the volume phasing itself, I think we're looking at -- yes, Q2, I think, is probably the more challenging uphill of the quarters ahead.

就產量分階段本身而言，我認為我們正在考慮——是的，我認為第二季度可能是未來幾季中更具挑戰性的上坡期。

On -- as I say, on the intense inflationary markets that we've highlighted in '24, as James said, affecting the headline numbers, we see that moderating throughout the year.

正如我所說，對於我們在 24 年強調的嚴重通膨市場，正如詹姆斯所說，影響了總體數字，我們看到這種情況全年都在緩和。

Do you want me to say -- yes, on the industry growth, if I -- I mean clearly, we are planning to and expect and aim to gain share.

你想讓我說 - 是的，關於行業增長，如果我 - 我的意思是明確地，我們計劃並且期望並且旨在獲得份額。

So to the extent that we end up growing 5% to 6%, then that is based on the idea that the industry is growing at a more normalized level.

因此，如果我們最終實現 5% 到 6% 的成長，那麼這是基於產業以更正常化的水平成長的想法。

If you look at the long-term growth rate of the industry, you tend to get a 4% or a 5%.

如果你看一下該產業的長期成長率，你往往會得到4％或5％的成長率。

So we are absolutely expecting the industry growth rate to also moderate, which is kind of what was happening in Q4.

因此，我們絕對預期產業成長率也會放緩，這正是第四季發生的情況。

The underlying rate, if you take out the high-inflation countries is kind of 6% or 7% in the fourth quarter and we were gaining share.

如果除去高通膨國家，第四季的基本利率約為 6% 或 7%，而且我們的份額正在增加。

So again, it's very consistent with this idea we've been talking about, which is as inflation moderates, we see a normalization of both the industry growth rate, our growth rate with us being the long-term winner in the industry with ongoing robust industry growth.

所以，這與我們一直在談論的想法非常一致，即隨著通貨膨脹的緩和，我們看到行業增長率和我們的增長率都趨於正常化，我們將成為行業的長期贏家，行業將持續強勁增長。

Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank

德意志銀行史蒂夫鮑爾斯

Hey guys, good morning.

嘿，大家早安。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I guess moving down the income statement, your outlook seems to imply some pretty strong underlying margin and profitability progress just net of the FX pressures and the higher tax rate.

我想，沿著損益表往下看，您的前景似乎意味著，除去外匯壓力和更高的稅率，基礎利潤率和盈利能力將有相當強勁的增長。

So could you talk about some of the key drivers there?

那麼您能談談其中的一些關鍵驅動因素嗎？

And then, I guess, similar to Bryan's question, any timing considerations we should keep in mind over the course of the year beyond just the number of days in each fiscal quarter.

然後，我想，與布萊恩的問題類似，我們應該在一年的時間過程中考慮任何時間因素，而不僅僅是每個財政季度的天數。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Maybe I'll start and then John will weigh in on some of these considerations.

也許我先開始，然後約翰會對其中的一些考慮發表看法。

Firstly, yes, there is some implied margin expansion in 2025, coming from some of the marketing expenditure and some of the SG&A.

首先，是的，2025 年確實存在一些隱含的利潤率擴大，這來自部分行銷支出和部分銷售、一般及行政費用。

This is the culmination of many of the programs we've been putting in place over the last number of years to continue not just to get effectiveness, but to get efficiency.

這是我們過去幾年來實施的眾多計劃的成果，目的不僅是為了提高效力，而且是為了提高效率。

And the simplest example is the marketing transformation where it is helping us continue.

最簡單的例子就是行銷轉型，它幫助我們繼續前進。

Take the Christmas out in Q4 last year, which we made with generative AI as a small example, it was both quicker and cheaper to make the ad.

就拿去年第四季我們利用生成式人工智慧製作的聖誕節廣告來說，這是一個小例子，製作廣告更快、更便宜。

And so what you're seeing come in to 2025 is some of the fruition of work that's been going on across the organization, including the marketing transformation that is producing some productivity in 2025.

因此，您在 2025 年看到的是整個組織正在進行的一些工作的成果，包括在 2025 年產生一定生產力的行銷轉型。

But it is important to say that we are not backing off our bias to investor growth.

但必須指出的是，我們不會放棄對投資人成長的偏好。

This is not less marketing, this is more productive spend.

這並不是減少行銷，而是增加生產性支出。

And so our mode of operations going into the year will continue to be we believe there will be growth in 2025 in the industry.

因此，我們今年的營運模式將持續，我們相信 2025 年該產業將實現成長。

We are going to invest from the marketing all the way down through the system into the commercial levers in order to continue to drive growth.

我們將從行銷到系統的各個環節進行投資，直到商業槓桿，以繼續推動成長。

As we find pluses and minuses around the world, of course, we will adapt and be flexible, but this is about leaning into growth, continuing to invest to drive the franchise and being able to capture some of the benefits of the transformational work that's been going on over a number of years.

當然，當我們在世界各地發現優點和缺點時，我們會適應並保持靈活性，但這是為了傾向於成長，繼續投資以推動特許經營，並能夠獲得多年來一直在進行的轉型工作帶來的一些好處。

John, do you want to add some considerations?

約翰，你想補充一些考慮嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Let me go off a little bit and talk about gross margin, Steve, so I can provide some additional commentary.

史蒂夫，讓我稍微談談毛利率，這樣我可以提供一些額外的評論。

We're not building an enormous amount of expansion on the gross margin front into our guidance.

我們不會在預期中對毛利率進行大幅擴張。

We do expect to continue to have some underlying expansion.

我們確實預計會繼續實現一些潛在的擴張。

But as you alluded to the FX, that's largely maybe offset by currency.

但正如您所提到的外匯，這很大程度上可能被貨幣所抵消。

We've anticipated for '25 there's quite a lot of moving parts inside of the gross margin equation.

我們預計，25 年毛利率方程式中會有很多變動因素。

So we've -- as I said, we've not, for guidance purposes, built in an enormous amount of expansion.

因此，正如我所說，出於指導目的，我們並沒有進行大規模的擴展。

Commodities will be in the low single-digit range overall.

大宗商品價格整體將處於個位數偏低的區間。

Some pressures on the agriculturals, particularly juice and coffee that are a big part of our base.

農產品面臨一些壓力，尤其是果汁和咖啡，它們佔了我們經濟基礎的很大一部分。

We have the usual set of levers that we'll deploy to cover those.

我們有一套常用的槓桿來覆蓋這些問題。

But for -- as I said, for guidance purposes, you can assume modest expansion at the gross margin line.

但是 — — 正如我所說，出於指導目的，您可以假設毛利率線適度擴張。

And as James said, we've been anticipating for quite some time the '25 environment and the sort of the "more for same, more for less" mantra is certainly alive and well.

正如詹姆斯所說，我們期待 25 年的環境已經有一段時間了，而且「相同成本獲得更多，更少成本獲得更多」的口號肯定依然存在。

Filippo Falorni, Citigroup.

花旗集團的 Filippo Falorni。

Hi, good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I wanted to ask you your thoughts on just the global trade environment, obviously, with tariffs coming more into play here.

我想問一下您對全球貿易環境的看法，顯然關稅在這裡發揮的作用更大。

It seems your supply chain is largely localized in most countries.

看來你們的供應鏈在大多數國家基本上都是本地化的。

But can you talk about some exposures in terms of import/export?

但是您能談談進出口方面的一些風險嗎？

And also just the secondary impact on commodities.

這也只是對商品產生了次要影響。

I know a lot of it is on your bottling system, but just thoughts on the recent tariffs also on aluminum and steel.

我知道其中很多都與你們的裝瓶系統有關，但我也對最近針對鋁和鋼的關稅有一些想法。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Filippo.

謝謝，菲利波。

Clearly, there's -- it's a dynamic macro environment out there.

顯然，這是一個動態的宏觀環境。

As commodities change for whatever reason, up or down, obviously, we -- our number one objective is to look at how we mitigate through that.

無論商品價格因何種原因而上漲或下跌，我們的首要目標顯然是研究如何緩解這種影響。

And whether it's the recent aluminum tariffs or any other tariff based, or frankly, weather based or any other variation in the input commodities, we do a number of things.

無論是最近的鋁關稅還是其他任何基於關稅的關稅，或者坦白說，基於天氣的關稅或任何其他投入商品的變化，我們都採取了許多措施。

One, we have hedging programs in place that look to assure supply and price going out.

一，我們制定了對沖計劃，以確保供應和價格。

Secondly, as the relative prices of different sources of ingredients and imports change, of course, we look at mitigation, productivity, efficiency, adjusting where we get our materials from.

其次，隨著不同原料來源和進口產品的相對價格變化，我們當然會考慮減緩、生產力、效率，調整我們的原料來源。

All of that goes into the equation to constantly manage how this goes through.

所有這些都將被納入方程式中，以不斷管理此過程的進展。

Net-net, as John just mentioned, we have been -- we are expecting more variation in agriculturals than industrials.

正如約翰剛才所提到的，我們預期農業的變化會比工業的變化更大。

Notwithstanding recent actions, we will manage through it.

儘管最近發生了一些事情，我們還是會設法解決。

As you said, we are predominantly a local business when it comes to making each of the beverages.

正如您所說的，在生產每種飲料方面，我們主要是本地企業。

The vast majority of everything that's consumed in the US is made in the US.

美國消費的絕大部分產品都是在美國製造的。

Similarly, we're in virtually every country around the world.

同樣，我們的業務幾乎遍布世界每個國家。

And so while it's a global business, it's very local.

因此，雖然它是一項全球性業務，但它卻具有很強的本地化特徵。

So yes, every bottler will be importing something from somewhere as a piece of the puzzle, but the economics are more predominantly local than they are global.

所以是的，每個瓶裝商都會從某個地方進口一些東西作為拼圖的一部分，但經濟因素主要還是在地化而非全球化。

And so it's a piece of the puzzle we need to manage through.

所以這是我們需要解決的難題。

As John said, we have that, we believe, under control from a point of view of sustaining gross margin.

正如約翰所說，我們相信，從維持毛利率的角度來看，我們已經控制了這一點。

No doubt the environment will continue to be dynamic, but we will continue to manage and mitigate and adjust and be agile and flexible our way through the year.

毫無疑問，環境將繼續保持動態，但我們將繼續管理、緩解和調整，並在新的一年保持敏捷和靈活。

And just one additional comment.

還有一則補充評論。

Supply chain continuity continues to be, I think, for many industries, an ongoing challenge for a variety of reasons. '24 was no stranger to that.

我認為，由於各種原因，供應鏈連續性對許多行業來說仍然是一個持續的挑戰。 '24 對此並不陌生。

And our cross-enterprise procurement team are managing a vast network.

我們的跨企業採購團隊管理龐大的網路。

And in addition to the economics, just making sure that we can continue to supply our markets around the world consistently is a key priority and an important advantage, I think, to enjoy as well in the many markets that we're in.

除了經濟因素之外，確保我們能夠持續穩定地向全球市場供應產品是我們最優先考慮的事情，也是我們在眾多市場中能夠享有的重要優勢。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格 (Bonnie Herzog)。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I guess, thinking about the new administration and some potential regulatory changes, what percentage of your domestic portfolio might be subject to potential changes?

我想，考慮到新政府和一些潛在的監管變化，您國內投資組合中有多少比例可能會發生潛在的變化？

And then, James, how quickly can you pivot or adapt your portfolio if some of these changes are implemented?

那麼，詹姆斯，如果實施了其中一些變化，你能多快調整或調整你的投資組合？

And then I'll ask it since it's become more topical again lately, but how are you thinking about potential impacts on consumption from GLP-1 drugs.

然後我會問這個問題，因為最近它再次變得更加熱門，但您如何看待 GLP-1 藥物對消費的潛在影響。

Have you seen any impact?

你有看到任何影響嗎？

And has your thinking on this potential headwind changed in terms of your strategy, innovation, et cetera?

您對這項潛在不利因素的看法在策略、創新等方面是否發生了改變？

Well, Bonnie, I'm tempted to start with the answer to the first question by saying you win the prize for the Vegas question so far this year with what might happen subject to changes.

好吧，邦妮，我很想先回答第一個問題，今年到目前為止，你贏得了拉斯維加斯問題的獎項，但接下來的情況可能會有所改變。

There are many things that could happen out there in the world.

世界上有很多事情可能發生。

And of course, we do scenario planning on regulations, on economics and all sorts of things and we will adapt as and when they come.

當然，我們會對法規、經濟等各種因素進行情境規劃，並視情況進行調整。

More specifically on the GLP-1s, as we've commented on previous calls, we continue to see anecdotal evidence of the impact of GLP-1s on consumption of food and beverages.

更具體地說，關於 GLP-1，正如我們在先前的電話會議上所評論的那樣，我們繼續看到 GLP-1 對食品和飲料消費影響的軼事證據。

So far, our take is it's not a big aggregate factor for the beverage industry or the nonalcoholic beverage industry.

到目前為止，我們的看法是，這對飲料行業或非酒精飲料行業來說不是一個重要的總體因素。

Witness the volume for our sales was up 1% in the fourth quarter in North America, so we continue to see pretty sustained momentum in North America.

我們見證了第四季度北美市場的銷售量成長了 1%，因此我們繼續看到北美市場保持著相當持續的發展勢頭。

There is anecdotal evidence that people consume slightly less alcohol perhaps and they do some switching in nonalcoholic beverages.

有軼事證據表明，人們的酒精消費量可能略有減少，並且他們會改用非酒精飲料。

But overall, we're seeing sustained momentum, and we are a total beverage company.

但總體而言，我們看到了持續的發展勢頭，而且我們是一家綜合性飲料公司。

So we believe whether it's GLP-1 drugs or changes and adaptations to regulation ingredients, our objective is to have the biggest possible toolbox of ingredients of super high quality and safety, which we use to make a total beverage portfolio that works for consumers.

因此，我們相信，無論是 GLP-1 藥物還是對監管成分的變化和調整，我們的目標都是擁有盡可能豐富的超高品質和安全成分工具箱，並用它們來打造適合消費者的完整飲料組合。

And we believe we can adapt to anything that comes at us.

我們相信我們能夠適應任何可能發生的事。

Kaumil Gajrawala , Jefferies

傑富瑞的 Kaumil Gajrawala

Everyone, good morning.

大家早安。

John, you laid out a long list of very substantial cash payments that have been made this year -- last year, almost all of which will be behind you very soon.

約翰，你列出了今年至去年支付的一大筆現金，其中幾乎所有款項很快就會到達。

So can you maybe just talk about how you think about cash or capital allocation when you're on the other side of it, whether it be buybacks, whether it be more aggressive around M&A.

那麼，您能否談談從另一個角度如何看待現金或資本配置，無論是回購，還是更積極地進行併購。

The magnitude of the change of the amount of cash you'll have on hand next year versus this year is so substantial, I'd like to see how you might think about it differently.

與今年相比，明年您手頭上的現金數量變化幅度如此之大，我想看看您對此有何不同的看法。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, let me maybe answer that in two parts.

是的，我可能分成兩部分來回答這個問題。

First of all, I don't foresee a substantial change in our focus to support the underlying business and the momentum that has.

首先，我預計我們的重點不會發生重大變化，以支持基礎業務和現有的發展勢頭。

And secondly, as we just talked about in our guidance, we will continue to support the dividend.

其次，正如我們剛才在指導中提到的，我們將繼續支持股息。

So those two areas you can assume will remain top priorities.

因此，你可以假設這兩個領域仍將處於首要位置。

As we get into '26, it's a little early to anticipate exactly what '26 will deliver for us.

當我們進入26年時，預測26年究竟會為我們帶來什麼還為時過早。

But as you say, clearly, we -- the transition tax will be in the rearview mirror.

但正如你所說，顯然，過渡稅將成為過去式。

Some of the M&A payments, likewise.

一些併購付款也是如此。

And it will give us the opportunity to take a closer look as the M&A and the share repurchase agenda.

這將使我們有機會更仔細地研究併購和股票回購議程。

So I think it's premature to get too specific on what '26 might bring for us.

因此我認為現在具體談論 26 年會為我們帶來什麼還為時過早。

But I'm looking forward actually to having to deal with that challenge in the next year or so.

但我實際上期待在未來一年左右應對這一挑戰。

We also have, as you are well aware, we also have a keen focus on the overall health of the balance sheet and we'll take into account the puts and takes on that.

如您所知，我們也非常關注資產負債表的整體健康狀況，並會考慮其中的影響。

We continue to have the tax case in the next couple of years to deal with.

我們在接下來的幾年還要繼續處理稅務案件。

So the name of the game for me is to -- would be to have more to manage in a flexible manner some of the opportunities that may present themselves.

因此，對我來說，遊戲的名稱就是——以更靈活的方式來管理可能出現的一些機會。

Rob Ottenstein, Evercore ISI.

奧滕斯坦（Rob Ottenstein），Evercore ISI。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

So Walmart has created now, I guess, what you call the modern soda shelves.

所以我想，沃爾瑪現在已經創造了所謂的現代化汽水貨架。

And I'd love to get your thoughts on that category, broadly speaking.

總的來說，我很想聽聽您對這一類別的看法。

Is this something that is a fad in your view?

您認為這只是一時的熱潮嗎？

Or is this something that represents some kind of departure and is just very responsive to consumer needs?

或者這代表某種突破並且只是為了回應消費者的需求？

Is it something like fairlife, where you just have a better product?

它是否像 fairlife 一樣，有更好的產品？

And how do you look to play in the so-called modern soda area that Walmart seems to at least have some confidence in?

沃爾瑪似乎對所謂的現代蘇打水領域至少有信心，您打算如何佈局？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, look, it's great news that people are innovating and willing to create new brands and dedicate more shelf space to the beverage industry, which is, I think, goes to the whole idea this is a vibrant industry with lots of growth.

是的，你看，這是個好消息，人們正在創新並願意創造新的品牌，並為飲料行業提供更多的貨架空間，我認為這符合整個理念，這是一個充滿活力和大量增長的行業。

So that's the first one.

這是第一個。

Secondly, we are a total beverage company, we look to compete everywhere we see enduring consumer demand and traction, including some of the stuff that goes here.

其次，我們是一家綜合性飲料公司，我們希望在任何我們看到持久的消費者需求和吸引力的地方參與競爭，包括這裡的一些東西。

Look, in the end, these are soda beverages that are great tasting, that's the central idea.

看，最終，這些都是味道很好的蘇打飲料，這就是中心思想。

And I think to the extent that's enduring, we'll take a really hard look at it.

我認為，就其持久性而言，我們將會認真審視它。

But I think the most important thing to take from this is the confidence in the overall industry of beverages to continue to grow.

但我認為最重要的是對整個飲料產業持續成長的信心。

And as John alluded to, and we'll talk more at CAGNY, when you look at the track record of The Coca-Cola Company in terms of creating organically and scaling small bolt-on M&A into billion-dollar brands, we are by far and away the clear leaders in the industry and the winners.

正如約翰所提到的，我們將在 CAGNY 進一步討論，當你回顧可口可樂公司在有機創造和將小型附加併購擴大為價值數十億美元的品牌方面的業績記錄時，你會發現我們是該行業遙遙領先的領導者和贏家。

Christopher Carey, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯多福‧凱裡 (Christopher Carey)。

Hi everyone, James, you mentioned agricultural commodities.

大家好，詹姆斯，你提到了農產品。

You also, I think, said something to the effect of industrial commodities are perhaps moving a bit less, but you're watching developments and I'm assuming you're speaking to aluminum.

我想，您也說過，工業大宗商品的波動可能會小一些，但您正在關注事態發展，我假設您說的是鋁。

Can you just maybe provide some context, number one, on how incremental moves in aluminum might impact your cost per case outlook, number one.

第一，您能否提供一些背景信息，說明鋁價的逐步上漲將如何影響您對於每箱成本的展望。

And just related, there's this element of the system will need to respond to incremental inflation from aluminum.

與此相關的是，該系統的這個要素需要對鋁價上漲的增加做出反應。

Can you just talk about comfort that affordability and volume durability will not be impacted if the system needs to respond to climbing inflation.

您能否談談如果系統需要應對不斷上升的通貨膨脹，其可負擔性和容量耐用性不會受到影響？

So it's a little bit of a two part question and the impact to the model, but also a bit forward looking and what may be required to protect the model and the impact on the consumer in the coming months.

所以，這個問題分為兩部分，一部分是對模型的影響，另一部分是前瞻性的，以及在未來幾個月內可能需要做些什麼來保護模型以及對消費者的影響。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

I mean, firstly, this is predominantly an impact in the North American or in the US business with, let's say, the North American business, which is obviously a piece of the puzzle.

我的意思是，首先，這主要對北美或美國業務產生影響，比如說北美業務，這顯然是難題的一部分。

So from a total company perspective, bear in mind this is just one of the four segments, largely speaking, as we sit here today.

因此，從整個公司的角度來看，請記住，這只是我們今天在這裡討論的四個部分之一。

And of course, as it relates to our strategies, around ensuring affordability and ensuring consumer demand, if one package suffers some increase in input costs, we continue to have other packaging offerings that will allow us to compete in the affordability space.

當然，就我們的策略而言，即確保可負擔性和確保消費者需求，如果一種包裝的投入成本增加，我們仍會繼續提供其他包裝產品，以便在可負擔性領域保持競爭力。

So for example, if aluminum cans become more expensive, we can put more emphasis on PET bottles, et cetera, et cetera.

舉例來說，如果鋁罐變得更貴，我們就可以更重視 PET 瓶等等。

So we will adapt the packaging strategy in function of change in the relative input costs of what goes into that.

因此，我們將根據包裝相關投入成本的變化來調整包裝策略。

So that is part of the total adaptation plan that we use around the world.

這是我們在世界各地實施的整體適應計劃的一部分。

Secondly, so I don't believe if part of the question in the second half is do you think this is going to fundamentally undermine the ability of the system to do well in volume in 2025, the short answer is no.

其次，因此我認為，如果後半部分的問題是您認為這是否會從根本上破壞該系統在 2025 年實現良好業績的能力，那麼簡短的回答是否定的。

I think we control enough variables that we can adapt and mitigate our way through what is happening because it's a combination of hedging, which we use on the key materials.

我認為我們控制了足夠的變量，我們可以適應並緩解正在發生的事情，因為它是一種對沖的組合，我們對關鍵材料使用了對沖。

It's an opportunity to do mix management between different packaging materials.

這是對不同包裝材料進行混合管理的機會。

And of course, we're going to look at where the supply is from because it's all about relative pricing.

當然，我們會關注供應來自哪裡，因為這完全取決於相對定價。

To the extent relative pricing changes, we can seek to adapt.

在相對定價變化的範圍內，我們可以設法適應。

And so I think this is mitigate-able and manageable and one of the dynamic elements of 2025 that I think we can get through.

因此，我認為這是可以緩解和控制的，也是我認為我們可以克服的 2025 年動態因素之一。

Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安德里亞特謝拉 (Andrea Teixeira)。

Thank you, operator and hi James, John.

謝謝接線員，你好，詹姆斯，約翰。

I have a question on Mexico and then a follow-up on mix.

我有一個關於墨西哥的問題，然後想問混合問題。

On Mexico, you have obviously managed cycles, regulation tax as well, and arguably, you count on one of the best bottling partners there.

在墨西哥，你們顯然已經管理好了周期、監管稅收，可以說，你們擁有那裡最好的瓶裝合作夥伴之一。

But can you comment on the playbook?

但你能對劇本做出評論嗎？

And if you're embedding a deceleration in volumes there?

如果您在那裡嵌入減速呢？

And can you talk about the potential risk of recession or would we need to see this at a stronger dollar, meaning obviously, more pesos to their pockets partially offsetting the slowdown?

您能談談經濟衰退的潛在風險嗎？ 或者我們需要看到美元走強，這顯然意味著他們的口袋裡會有更多的比索，從而部分抵消經濟放緩的影響？

And then on the second point, you both spend a fair amount of time discussing the accelerating innovation results, which are remarkable.

然後關於第二點，你們花了相當多的時間討論加速創新的成果，這是非常了不起的。

On the strong delivery in North America, I believe you posted like 12% growth in price/mix.

由於北美市場交付強勁，我相信您發布的價格/組合增長了 12%。

How much is that driven by fairlife or away-from-home recovery?

其中有多少是由場館生活或客場復甦所推動的？

And should we expect that comparison to lead to a deceleration there?

我們是否應該預期這種比較會導致那裡的經濟減速？

Or you still see a lot of potential for fairlife distribution and potentially better execution on, on-premise ahead?

或者您仍然看到 fairlife 分銷的巨大潛力以及未來在現場更好的執行力？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Wow.

哇。

Okay.

好的。

That's a lot of questions in there.

這其中有很多問題。

Let me try and pack it into two.

讓我試著把它打包成兩份。

North American pricing, about half of the North American pricing that you see in Q4 is mix.

北美定價，第四季看到的北美定價中約有一半是混合定價。

And therefore, you can basically kind of park that relative to 2025.

因此，您基本上可以將其停留在相對於 2025 年的水平。

And so -- and it's not just fairlife.

所以——這不僅僅是公平生活。

But if you just take half of that and call that price/mix, that is going to continue to moderate as you go into 2025 in the North American sense and the mix will also moderate in 2025.

但是，如果你只取其中的一半並將其稱為價格/組合，那麼從北美的角度來看，到 2025 年，這一價格/組合將繼續趨於緩和，並且 2025 年的價格/組合也將趨於緩和。

We'll continue to grow fairlife in 2025, but we are -- given the runaway success of the products, we are reaching the need to get the New York factory that we've been building up and running in order to continue unconstrained growth.

我們將在 2025 年繼續發展 fairlife，但鑑於產品的巨大成功，我們需要讓一直在建設和運營的紐約工廠投入運營，以繼續不受約束地增長。

So we will see some moderation of the fairlife growth in '25, which will obviously then moderate the mix.

因此，我們將看到 25 年公平生活成長有所緩和，這顯然會緩和組合。

So much more normalization of US price/mix in 2025.

到 2025 年，美國的價格/產品組合將更加正常化。

And then Mexico, I mean, unpacking the Mexican playbook is a longer conversation, but I think is a place where, par excellence, we have had a dedicated and consistent execution of the play -- the overall playbook, whether it's great quality marketing, great quality innovation, great quality execution, great quality RGM so pricing options.

然後是墨西哥，我的意思是，解讀墨西哥的劇本是一個較長的對話，但我認為在那裡，我們對劇本有著專注和一致的執行——整體劇本，無論是高品質的行銷，高品質的創新，高品質的執行，高品質的 RGM 還是定價選擇。

I mean, the one place you can go and find a package at almost every price point is Mexico.

我的意思是，你可以去一個地方找到幾乎所有價位的套餐，那就是墨西哥。

It's one of the broadest beverage portfolios in the world in terms of covering off all the categories.

就涵蓋所有類別而言，它是世界上最廣泛的飲料產品組合之一。

So it's been a long-term dedication by the system in Mexico to build the total beverage company with a product and a package and a price point for everyone, everywhere.

因此，墨西哥系統長期致力於打造一家能夠為世界各地的每個人提供產品、包裝和價格的綜合性飲料公司。

And of course, we commented just on the peso, we did call out FX headwinds in 2025, but they have taken on a different nature.

當然，我們只評論了比索，我們確實預測了 2025 年的外匯逆風，但其性質有所不同。

So we're not expecting large impacts to come from the intense inflation countries, we're expecting the house headwinds that come from some of the more normal, let's say, emerging markets like Mexico and that's part of the headwind you see on the peso conversion to the US dollar for 2025.

因此，我們預期通膨率較高的國家不會帶來巨大影響，我們預期房價上漲的阻力將來自一些更正常的新興市場，例如墨西哥，這也是 2025 年比索兌換美元時遇到的阻力的一部分。

Peter Grom, UBS.

瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

Thanks, operator.

謝謝，接線生。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

So James, I was hoping to follow up on your response to Dara's question.

所以詹姆斯，我希望跟進你對達拉問題的回答。

And I apologize if I misheard this, but I think you mentioned organic growth to be a bit more weighted to price relative to volume, which isn't entirely surprising.

如果我聽錯了，我很抱歉，但我認為您提到的有機增長更多地取決於價格而非數量，這並不完全令人驚訝。

And not to get too granular, but I wasn't sure if you were implying that you were expecting volume growth to kind of fall short of the 2% to 3% growth we typically see or just at the lower end of that range.

我不想說得太詳細，但我不確定您是否暗示您預計銷量增長將低於我們通常看到的 2% 到 3% 的水平，或者只是處於該範圍的低端。

And I'd just ask that in the context of 2% unit case volume growth exiting the year.

我只是想問一下，今年年底單位箱量成長率為 2%。

You touched on a lot of these more challenged markets getting better in the quarter.

您提到許多面臨更大挑戰的市場在本季都出現了改善。

So it would seem that you have some pretty nice momentum exiting the year, and 4Q exit rate would be a good place to start.

因此看起來您在今年結束時擁有相當不錯的勢頭，而第四季度的退出率將是一個很好的起點。

But I'm not sure if there's maybe some offsets or areas of concern that we might not be thinking about.

但我不確定是否存在一些我們可能沒有考慮到的抵消因素或關注領域。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Peter, yes, I think you've got what I said to Dara correctly.

彼得，是的，我認為你正確理解了我對達拉說的話。

Yes, I mean, if you just take 2024, we did 2% in the fourth quarter.

是的，我的意思是，如果只看 2024 年，我們第四季的成長率為 2%。

We did 1% overall for the year.

我們全年的總體完成率為 1%。

So yes, I mean, what I was saying is implying we're at 1%, 2% kind of floating around that sort of range with a compensating factor on the pricing side.

是的，我的意思是，我剛才說的意思是，我們處於 1%、2% 左右的浮動範圍內，並在定價方面有一個補償因素。

So we still get up into the 5% to 6% range.

因此我們仍然處於 5% 到 6% 的範圍內。

So I think you've got it clearly.

所以我想你已經明白了。

Also, I think John made a comment earlier in terms of the timing during the year that Q2 is clearly going to be a tougher cycling quarter.

此外，我認為約翰早些時候就今年的時間表發表了評論，即第二季度顯然將是一個更加艱難的自行車季度。

But overall for the year, we feel we're coming in with momentum.

但總體而言，就今年而言，我們感覺我們的發展勢頭良好。

There are a decent number of unknowns and a dynamic environment in '25 we believe we can manage through.

2025 年存在大量未知數和動態環境，我們相信我們能夠應對。

And from a volume perspective, I think -- I'd like to think it's going to be a little better than '24 overall, but it's in that sort of ballpark.

從數量角度來看，我認為 — — 我希望它總體上會比 24 年好一點，但也差不多這個水平。

Charlie Higgs, Redburn Atlantic.

希格斯（Charlie Higgs），雷德伯恩大西洋公司（Redburn Atlantic）。

I've got a question on India, please, which had a good 2024, and more broadly, it's been a great market for you over the past few years.

我有一個關於印度的問題，印度在 2024 年表現良好，從更廣泛的角度來看，過去幾年來印度對您來說一直是一個很好的市場。

I saw in Q4 that you've refranchised 40% to a local partner.

我在第四季度看到您已將 40% 的特許經營權重新授予當地合作夥伴。

And I was just wondering if you could comment on that and what attributes that local partner brings that perhaps could even accelerate the Indian business to the next level?

我只是想知道您是否可以對此發表評論，以及當地合作夥伴具有哪些特質也許可以將印度業務提升到一個新的水平？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Charlie.

謝謝，查理。

I just came back from a trip to India, so maybe I'll take this one.

我剛從印度旅行回來，所以也許我會選擇這個。

The refranchising program that we've had in place continues to move ahead.

我們實施的再特許經營計劃正在繼續推進。

And India is no different to other parts of the world.

印度和世界其他地區也沒什麼不同。

We look for a certain profile of partner, those who are ambitious as we are to capture the opportunity, who have the capital, who have the ability to build capability over time.

我們尋找特定類型的合作夥伴，他們與我們一樣雄心勃勃，能夠抓住機遇，擁有資本，有能力隨著時間的推移不斷累積能力。

And we believe that our new partner there ticks the box very handsomely on all of these attributes.

我們相信，我們的新合作夥伴在所有這些方面都表現出色。

So you can just think of it as another chapter in the refranchising program, not just for India but for those remaining in our portfolio.

因此，你可以將其視為特許經營權再分配計畫的另一個篇章，不僅適用於印度，也適用於我們投資組合中剩餘的公司。

And the Indian market has got a tremendous amount of runway ahead.

印度市場還有巨大的發展空間。

The environment there is pretty vibrant, tremendous competitive set.

那裡的環境相當活躍，競爭非常激烈。

And we believe that the Jubilant Group coming in is going to add tremendously to our abilities to continue to step change our execution in the marketplace.

我們相信，Jubilant Group 的加入將大大增強我們繼續改變市場執行力的能力。

And as we continue to work on the refranchising program, we'll advise in the coming months and into next year as to how that shapes out.

隨著我們繼續推動特許經營計劃，我們將在未來幾個月以及明年就該計劃的實施情況提供建議。

Bill Chappell, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I just want to follow up on kind of the commentary on the hyperinflationary environment and your kind of comment of moderating.

我只是想跟進一下關於惡性通貨膨脹環境的評論，以及你關於調節的評論。

And I understand it moderating, but I believe the pricing -- a lot of the pricing you took was kind of more in the second half, so that will carry through.

我理解這正在減緩，但我相信定價——很多定價都是在下半年進行的，所以這將持續下去。

I don't think you -- these countries have really slowed down in their inflationary environment.

我不認為這些國家的通膨環境確實已經放緩。

So are you saying that you're kind of done with pricing there or that you would be taking price cuts?

那麼，您是說，你們的定價已經完成了，或者您會降價嗎？

So it seems like I understand you have a general guidance for this year, but it seems like the hyperinflation environment, there's not a real reason for them to moderate so much, at least for the next couple of quarters.

所以看起來我知道你對今年有一個總體指導，但似乎在惡性通貨膨脹的環境下，他們沒有真正的理由進行如此大的緩和，至少在接下來的幾個季度是這樣。

Bill, yes, absolutely not taking the foot off the pedal in terms of passing through where we have a lot of input costs coming in.

比爾，是的，我們絕對不會在投入大量成本的過程中放慢腳步。

So it's not that we are not going to be passing through the input costs in those marketplaces.

所以，這並不代表我們不會將投入成本轉嫁到這些市場。

There are -- it was very concentrated, these high inflationary countries, and there has been inflationary moderation.

這些高通膨國家通膨非常集中，而且已經出現通膨緩和。

I mean, if you look at Argentina for the sake of the singular example, the monthly inflation rate has dropped markedly through 2024.

我的意思是，如果你以阿根廷為例，到 2024 年，其每月通貨膨脹率已大幅下降。

I think it's down to a few percent a month now or 4% a month.

我認為現在已下降到每月幾個百分點或每月 4%。

So you definitely see a moderation.

因此你肯定會看到一種緩和。

Yes, you're right that in a sense you'll see more of it in the first half and the first quarter than you will in the back end of the year.

是的，您說得對，從某種意義上說，您在上半年和第一季看到的情況會比年底更多。

But inflation has definitively dropped in a lot of these countries.

但其中許多國家的通膨率已明顯下降。

And it was very concentrated in a handful, Argentina, a couple of the African countries and Turkey.

而這種現象主要集中在少數幾個國家，分別是阿根廷、幾個非洲國家和土耳其。

And so the inflation has come down.

因此通貨膨脹率已經下降。

There's -- but we will continue.

有——但我們會繼續。

If it doesn't moderate, if there's other countries that fall into this category because its input costs go up, we will pass those through in price.

如果沒有緩和，如果其他國家也陷入同樣的境地，因為其投入成本上升，我們就會將這種影響轉嫁到價格上。

Even though we look to execute all our affordability strategies, we have to pass through the costs in those sorts of environments because it's just too overwhelming.

儘管我們希望執行所有的可負擔性策略，但我們仍必須轉嫁這類環境中的成本，因為這實在是太過沉重了。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科（Robert Moskow），TD Cowen。

Hi, thanks.

嗨，謝謝。

I wanted to maybe push a little bit more on your commentary that you can -- you change your mix of packaging to react to aluminum tariffs or higher aluminum costs.

我想進一步強調您的評論，您可以改變包裝組合來應對鋁關稅或更高的鋁成本。

Is there any way to kind of delineate this?

有沒有什麼方法可以描述這一點？

Like how much of a mix shift is necessary to go more toward plastic, less towards aluminum cans in the event of a sharp increase in can cost.

例如，如果罐頭成本急劇上升，就需要進行多大程度的混合轉變，更多地轉向塑膠罐，而不是鋁罐。

It may not be a fair question, but is a 1% change in mix big enough to really influence the cost structure?

這可能不是一個公平的問題，但 1% 的組合變化是否足以真正影響成本結構？

Or does it have to be something much bigger than that?

或者它必須比這大得多？

Look, I think we're in danger of exaggerating the impact of the 25% increase in the aluminum price relative to the total system.

看，我認為我們有可能誇大鋁價相對於整個系統上漲 25% 的影響。

It's not insignificant, but it's not going to radically change a multibillion dollar US business.

這並不是無關緊要的事情，但它不會從根本上改變一家價值數十億美元的美國企業。

And packaging is only -- is a small component of the total cost structure.

包裝只是總成本結構的一小部分。

So firstly, it's not a multimillion dollar -- billion dollar problem relative to the input cost.

首先，相對於投入成本來說，這不是一個數百萬美元甚至數十億美元的問題。

It's a much more manageable number.

這是一個更易於管理的數字。

And so between mitigation of supply chain, sourcing, weights of the cans, price increase of the cans at some level potentially switch to PET, it's a manageable problem in the context of the total US business.

因此，在緩解供應鏈、採購、罐頭重量、罐頭價格上漲之間，在某種程度上可能會轉向 PET，這在整個美國業務背景下是一個可控的問題。

And I don't think we should -- you should not conclude that this is some huge swing factor in the US business.

而且我認為我們不應該——你不應該得出結論說這是美國業務的一些巨大波動因素。

It's a cost.

這是有成本的。

It will have to be managed.

我們必須對其進行管理。

It would be better not to have it relative to the US business, but we are going to manage our way through.

相對於美國業務來說，最好不要發生這種情況，但我們會設法解決。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可·拉弗里，派珀·桑德勒。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Just wanted to unpack Asia Pacific a little bit more.

只是想進一步了解亞太地區。

You had price/mix down there partially offset by some pricing.

您在那裡已經降低了價格/組合，但部分定價已被抵消。

But in the full year market share commentary, which I know is a little bit apples and oranges, South Korea and Japan grew or gained share and then Indonesia and Bangladesh declined or lost share.

但在全年市場份額評論中，我知道這有點像蘋果和橘子，韓國和日本的份額增長或增加，而印度尼西亞和孟加拉國的份額下降或減少。

That would seem like a positive for mix.

這對於混合來說似乎是一件好事。

So maybe how do you reconcile those?

那麼您該如何調和它們呢？

What are some of the moving parts?

有哪些活動部件？

And just help us understand that a little bit better.

並幫助我們更好地理解這一點。

Sure.

當然。

I think the biggest factor here in Asia Pacific in Q4 is what we're cycling from last year.

我認為第四季亞太地區最大的因素是去年的循環。

So I would encourage you as you look at Asia -- Asia is true overall, but Asia Pacific, in particular, for the reasons you called out, you've got some very developed markets like Japan and Australia and some very emerging markets like Bangladesh and Indonesia, and their relative volume performances can make a big difference to mix.

因此，我鼓勵你看看亞洲——亞洲總體上是正確的，但特別是亞太地區，由於你提到的原因，你有一些非常發達的市場，如日本和澳大利亞，也有一些非常新興的市場，如孟加拉國和印度尼西亞，它們的相對成交量表現會對組合產生很大的影響。

So what you're seeing is a base effect from 2023 coming over, but I would encourage any analysis of price/mix in Asia Pacific to be multi-quarter because it's just very choppy for the very reasons you just called out.

因此，您看到的是 2023 年開始出現的基礎效應，但我鼓勵對亞太地區的價格/組合進行多季度分析，因為正如您剛才所說，它非常不穩定。

Okay.

好的。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thanks very much, everyone.

非常感謝大家。

To summarize, we are winning in the marketplace.

總而言之，我們在市場上贏了。

We're going to continue to maintain our agility and focus on getting better on everything we do.

我們將繼續保持敏捷性並致力於改進我們所做的一切。

We believe we are well positioned to deliver on our 2025 guidance and create value for our stakeholders over the long term.

我們相信，我們有能力實現 2025 年的指導方針，並在長期內為我們的利害關係人創造價值。

We look forward to discussing more next week at CAGNY.

我們期待下週在 CAGNY 進行更多討論。

Thanks for your interest, the investment in our company and for joining us this morning.

感謝您的關注、對我們公司的投資以及今天早上的加入我們。

Thank you very much, everyone.

非常感謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。