Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc (KNX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Ina, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Knight-Swift Transportation Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Speakers for today's call will be Dave Jackson, President and CEO; and Adam Miller, CFO. Mr. Miller, the meeting is now yours. Thank you.

    午安.我叫伊娜,今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻,我謹歡迎大家參加 Knight-Swift Transportation 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 (操作員指示)今天電話會議的發言人將是總裁兼首席執行官戴夫傑克遜 (Dave Jackson);和首席財務官亞當·米勒。米勒先生,現在會議由您主持。謝謝。

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • Thank you, Ina, and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. Today, we plan to discuss topics related to the results of the quarter, an update on current market conditions and our earnings guidance. We have slides to accompany this call, which are posted on our investor website. Our call is scheduled to last 1 hour. And following our commentary, we will answer questions related to these topics. In order to get to as many participants as possible, we limit the questions to 1 per participant. And if you have a second question, please feel free to get back in the queue. We will answer as many questions as time allows. If you're not able to get to your question due to time restrictions, you may call (602) 606-6349.

    謝謝 Ina,大家下午好,謝謝您參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天,我們計劃討論與本季業績、當前市場狀況的最新情況以及我們的獲利指引相關的主題。我們在本次電話會議上附有幻燈片,這些幻燈片發佈在我們的投資者網站上。我們的通話預計為期 1 小時。在我們的評論之後,我們將回答與這些主題相關的問題。為了吸引盡可能多的參與者,我們將每位參與者的問題限制為 1 個。如果您還有第二個問題,請隨時回到佇列。我們將在時間允許的情況下回答盡可能多的問題。如果由於時間限制您無法回答您的問題,您可以致電 (602) 606-6349。

  • So to begin, I'll first refer you to the disclosures on Slide 2 of the presentation and note the following. This conference call and presentation may contain forward-looking statements made by the company that involve risks, assumptions and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Investors are directed to the information contained in Item 1A Risk Factors or Part 1 of the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the United States SEC for a discussion of the risks that may affect the company's future operating results. Actual results may differ.

    首先,我將先向您介紹簡報投影片 2 上的揭露內容,並注意以下內容。本次電話會議和演示可能包含公司所做的前瞻性聲明,這些聲明涉及難以預測的風險、假設和不確定性。投資者應參閱公司向美國 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格年度報告第 1A 項風險因素或第 1 部分中包含的信息,以討論可能影響公司未來經營業績的風險。實際結果可能有所不同。

  • Now I'll turn the call over to Dave Jackson for our overview on Slide 3.

    現在我將把電話轉給 Dave Jackson,以了解我們對幻燈片 3 的概述。

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Adam, and good afternoon, good evening, everyone. The charts on Slide 3 compare our consolidated fourth quarter revenue and earnings results on a year-over-year basis. Market conditions in the LTL business were strong, while soft demand continues in the truckload space. Revenue, excluding fuel surcharge, increased 11.6%, while our adjusted operating income declined by 78.6%. GAAP earnings per diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2023 was a loss of $0.07 and our adjusted EPS was $0.09 per share. These results include a $71.7 million operating loss in our third-party insurance business, we've decided to exit as we will discuss later on the call.

    謝謝亞當,大家下午好,晚上好。投影片 3 上的圖表比較了我們第四季的綜合收入和獲利結果年比情況。零擔業務的市場狀況強勁,而整車運輸領域的需求持續疲軟。不包括燃油附加費的收入增加了 11.6%,而調整後的營業收入下降了 78.6%。 2023 年第四季的 GAAP 攤薄每股收益為虧損 0.07 美元,調整後每股收益為 0.09 美元。這些結果包括我們第三方保險業務的 7,170 萬美元營運損失,我們決定退出,我們將在稍後的電話會議中討論。

  • The insurance loss negatively impacted our adjusted EPS by $0.30. Excluding the loss on the insurance business, our adjusted EPS would have been $0.39 per share. Our results were also negatively impacted on a year-over-year basis by a $17.8 million increase in net interest expense, approximately $0.08 per share.

    保險損失對我們調整後的每股盈餘產生了 0.30 美元的負面影響。不包括保險業務的損失,我們調整後的每股收益將為 0.39 美元。我們的業績也受到淨利息支出年增 1,780 萬美元(約每股 0.08 美元)的負面影響。

  • Now on to the next slide. Slide 4 illustrates the revenue and adjusted operating income for each of our segments. Truckload freight demand saw a modest seasonal lift in November before slowing more than anticipated in December. The seasonal lift in November was not enough to offset the productivity disruption we typically experience during the holidays. This has not only impacted -- this not only impacted our truckload business, but logistics and intermodal as well. Freight demand in LTL was strong and led to an 11.9% increase in shipments per day in the quarter. U.S. Xpress made further progress and achieved positive adjusted operating income in each month of the quarter as revenue and cost per mile both improved over the third quarter. Our existing logistics business navigated significant declines in volume and revenue per load year-over-year to maintain a low 90s adjusted operating ratio and U.S. Xpress Logistics continues to close the gap posting an adjusted operating ratio that was only 150 basis points behind our existing logistics business.

    現在轉到下一張投影片。投影片 4 說明了我們每個部門的收入和調整後的營業收入。卡車貨運需求在 11 月出現季節性小幅增長,然後在 12 月放緩幅度超過預期。 11 月的季節性成長不足以抵消我們在假期期間通常遇到的生產力中斷。這不僅影響了我們的卡車業務,也影響了物流和多式聯運。零擔貨運需求強勁,導致本季每日出貨量成長 11.9%。由於收入和每英里成本較第三季度有所改善,U.S. Xpress 取得了進一步的進展,並在本季度每個月都實現了正調整營業收入。我們現有的物流業務在數量和每次裝載收入同比大幅下降的情況下,保持了90 年代較低的調整後營運比率,而U.S. Xpress Logistics 繼續縮小差距,調整後的營運比率僅落後我們現有物流150 個基點商業。

  • I will now turn it to Adam to discuss each segment's operating performance, starting with truckload on Slide 5.

    我現在將請 Adam 討論每個部分的營運績效,從幻燈片 5 上的卡車裝載開始。

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • Thanks, Dave. For the Truckload segment, we saw modest seasonal activity as expected, but as noted on the last slide, the drop in demand in December was greater than anticipated. There were a few seasonal projects for truckload and the projects that did exist were smaller in scale than what we see in a typical peak season. Loose capacity prevented any premium pricing opportunities as well.

    謝謝,戴夫。對於卡車裝載領域,我們看到了預期的溫和季節性活動,但正如最後一張投影片所示,12 月的需求下降幅度大於預期。有一些卡車裝載的季節性項目,而且現有項目的規模比我們在典型旺季看到的要小。產能過剩也阻礙了任何溢價定價機會。

  • Revenue per mile was up 1.4% sequentially, reflecting stability in the existing businesses while U.S. Xpress saw positive progress as we continue working on the business mix. Adjusted operating ratio for our existing truckload business was flat sequentially and U.S. Xpress improved 280 basis points. The inclusion of U.S. Xpress negatively impacted the adjusted operating ratio for this segment by 250 basis points.

    每英里收入環比增長 1.4%,反映出現有業務的穩定性,而隨著我們繼續致力於業務組合,U.S. Xpress 也取得了積極進展。我們現有卡車裝載業務的調整後營運比率環比持平,U.S. Xpress 提高了 280 個基點。 U.S. Xpress 的納入對該部門調整後的營運比率產生了 250 個基點的負面影響。

  • On a year-over-year basis, our truckload revenue, excluding fuel surcharge, increased 25.5%, reflecting a 12.5% decline in the existing truckload business prior to the inclusion of U.S. Xpress. Revenue per loaded mile fell 11.6% year-over-year or 11% before including U.S. Xpress. Miles per tractor increased 8.4% overall or 6.4% before including U.S. Xpress, largely driven by the disposal of roughly 1,300 unseated tractors over the past year in order to reduce cost. Now we'll move to Slide 6. The benefits of our diversification into LTO really stand out as this segment continues to perform well.

    與去年同期相比,我們的整車收入(不含燃油附加費)成長了 25.5%,反映出納入 U.S. Xpress 之前現有整車業務下降了 12.5%。每裝載英里的收入年減 11.6%,在包括 U.S. Xpress 之前下降 11%。每台拖拉機的行駛里程總體增加了 8.4%,不包括 U.S. Xpress 則增加了 6.4%,這主要是由於過去一年為了降低成本而處置了大約 1,300 輛無人拖拉機。現在我們將轉到幻燈片 6。隨著該細分市場繼續表現良好,我們多元化進入 LTO 的好處確實非常突出。

  • Our LTL business grew revenue excluding fuel surcharge nearly 40% year-over-year an acceleration versus the 6.9% growth in the previous quarter. This business delivered an 85.5 adjusted operating ratio and grew adjusted operating income 14% year-over-year. Pricing growth remained solid as revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharge, increased 9.5% year-over-year. As of the end of the year, we had bought -- we have brought 14 new service centers online since entering the business in late 2021, and efforts are underway with 25 more properties in various stages of procurement developing -- development or reconditioning. Filling out a super regional network in the short term and created a national network in the long term will allow us to participate in more freight and enable us to find opportunities to further support our existing truckload customers with LTL capacity. This remains a key strategic priority for us.

    我們的零擔業務(不含燃油附加費)營收年增近 40%,較上一季的 6.9% 增速有所加快。該業務的調整後營業比率為 85.5,調整後營業收入年增 14%。定價成長依然穩健,每英擔收入(不含燃油附加費)較去年同期成長 9.5%。自 2021 年底進入該行業以來,截至今年年底,我們已經購買了 14 個新的線上服務中心,並且正在努力購買另外 25 個處於採購、開發、開發或翻新各個階段的房產。短期內完善超級區域網絡,長期打造全國性網絡,將使我們能夠參與更多貨運業務,並使我們能夠找到機會以零擔運力進一步支持我們現有的整車客戶。這仍然是我們的一個關鍵策略重點。

  • Now we'll move to Slide 7. The logistics market continues to be a challenge as many brokers have struggled to find enough volume and margins have been compressed. Being an asset-based logistics provider allows us to provide our customers seamless service regardless if it's on our own assets or 1 of our partner carriers. This allows us to provide both committed and surge capacity and drop into both trailer pool services at scale. Because of this, our logistics business remains disciplined and nimble maintaining a low 90s adjusted operating ratio despite a challenging market.

    現在我們將轉向幻燈片 7。物流市場仍然是一個挑戰,因為許多經紀商一直在努力尋找足夠的數量,而且利潤也受到壓縮。作為一家以資產為基礎的物流提供者,我們能夠為客戶提供無縫服務,無論是我們自己的資產還是我們合作夥伴承運商的資產。這使我們能夠提供承諾容量和激增容量,並大規模投入拖車池服務。正因如此,儘管市場充滿挑戰,我們的物流業務仍保持紀律性和靈活性,維持著 90 年代調整後的較低營運比率。

  • The U.S. Xpress Logistics business continues to improve both the cost structure and pricing disciplines and made further sequential improvement in adjusted operating ratio, again, closing to within approximately 150 basis points of our existing logistics business. Overall revenue was down 5% year-over-year as revenue per load declined 7.4% and load count improved 2.6%. Excluding the U.S. Xpress logistics volumes, low count was down 22.7% year-over-year in the existing business.

    U.S. Xpress Logistics 業務持續改善成本結構和定價規則,並在調整後的營運比率方面進一步取得連續改善,再次接近我們現有物流業務的約 150 個基點以內。整體收入年減 5%,每次負載收入下降 7.4%,負載計數增加 2.6%。剔除 U.S. Xpress 物流量,現有業務量較去年同期下降 22.7%。

  • Now on to Slide 8. In our Intermodal business, revenue decreased 16.4% driven by a 19.7% decrease in revenue per load partially offset by a 4.2% increase in load count. The operating ratio was essentially flat with the previous quarter. Our intermodal business didn't perform as well as expected as volume during the quarter was negatively impacted by several service-sensitive customers temporarily converting intermodal volume to truckload during peak season to take advantage of improved transit times and the competitive truckload pricing. This conversion not only impacted volume but negatively impacted our revenue per load. Many of these customers have now begun to return volume back to intermodal, and we expect to build volume in the second quarter as we work through the current bid season.

    現在轉到投影片 8。在我們的多式聯運業務中,收入下降了 16.4%,原因是每次裝載收入下降了 19.7%,但裝載數量增加了 4.2%,部分抵消了這一影響。開工率與上季基本持平。我們的多式聯運業務表現不如預期,因為本季的運輸量受到一些對服務敏感的客戶在旺季期間暫時將多式聯運量轉換為卡車裝載量的負面影響,以利用改善的運輸時間和有競爭力的卡車裝載價格。這種轉換不僅影響了銷量,而且對我們的每次負載收入產生了負面影響。這些客戶中的許多客戶現在已經開始將運量恢復到多式聯運,我們預計在當前的投標季節期間,第二季將增加運量。

  • Now we'll move to Slide 9. Slide 9 illustrates our all other segments formerly referred to as non-reportable segments. This category includes insurance, maintenance and equipment and sales and rentals under the iron truck services brand as well as equipment leasing and warehousing activities. For the quarter, revenue declined 46.6% year-over-year, largely as a result of our actions to address the challenges within our third-party insurance program, including significantly reducing the exposure basis. The $83.5 million operating loss within the -- all Other segments is primarily driven by the $71.7 million operating loss in the third-party insurance business.

    現在我們將轉到投影片 9。投影片 9 說明了以前稱為不可報告細分的所有其他細分。此類別包括鐵卡車服務品牌下的保險、維護和設備以及銷售和租賃以及設備租賃和倉儲活動。本季營收年減 46.6%,這主要是由於我們採取了應對第三方保險計劃中的挑戰的行動,包括大幅降低風險基礎。所有其他部門的 8,350 萬美元營運虧損主要是由第三方保險業務 7,170 萬美元的營運虧損造成的。

  • Based on recent results, including the continued negative development of claims reserves, we decided to initiate exiting this business during the quarter. We have begun canceling policies and expect to have that completed by the end of the first quarter of 2024. At which point, all third-party insurance operations will cease that we'll still have the outstanding claims to administer until ultimate settlement.

    根據最近的業績,包括索賠準備金的持續負成長,我們決定在本季開始退出該業務。我們已開始取消保單,預計在 2024 年第一季末完成。屆時,所有第三方保險業務將停止,我們仍將管理未決索賠,直至最終解決。

  • We have already reduced the number of trucks under coverage by nearly 75% from its peak in the fourth quarter of the prior year, and we do not expect this business to have a material impact to our results in 2024.

    我們已經將覆蓋範圍內的卡車數量比去年第四季的高峰減少了近 75%,我們預計這項業務不會對我們 2024 年的業績產生重大影響。

  • Now I'll provide an update on the progress U.S. Xpress on Slide 10. U.S. Xpress continues to run ahead of plan on our projected path to improving results. As noted in the previous slides, the U.S. Xpress Truckload and Logistics business have already made meaningful progress and achieved a combined 99% adjusted operating ratio for the quarter. We highlight some of the progress on this slide. You'll notice these are fundamental areas of the business, including driver support and development, a decentralized operating model characterized by empowerment and financial accountability, a cohesive strategy for the network and freight selection and a fanatical focus on cost. As the team covers ground on these initiatives, it is yielding improvement in the operating ratio.

    現在,我將在幻燈片 10 上提供有關 U.S. Xpress 進展的最新信息。U.S. Xpress 在我們預計的改善結果的道路上繼續領先於計劃。正如先前的幻燈片中所指出的,U.S. Xpress 卡車裝載和物流業務已經取得了有意義的進展,本季調整後的營運比率達到了 99%。我們在這張投影片上強調了一些進展。您會注意到這些是業務的基本領域,包括駕駛員支援和開發、以授權和財務責任為特徵的分散運營模式、網路和貨運選擇的凝聚力策略以及對成本的狂熱關注。隨著團隊在這些措施上取得進展,營運率正在改善。

  • The progress on revenue per mile is noteworthy as this has been accomplished in a difficult market and in between bid seasons given the timing of the acquisition. Further improvement can be made through the bid season as we expand our pursuit of more lanes for the network. We continue to be pleased with the early progress and for how this consequential truckload business is positioning for the future, reaching positive adjusted operating income before an improvement in the market. We are glad to see the efforts of the U.S. Xpress team already paying off, and we appreciate their hard work.

    每英里收入的進展值得注意,因為這是在困難的市場以及考慮收購時機的投標季節之間實現的。隨著我們擴大對網路更多車道的追求,可以在投標季節取得進一步的改進。我們仍然對早期進展以及這項重要的整車業務對未來的定位感到滿意,在市場改善之前實現調整後的正營業收入。我們很高興看到 U.S. Xpress 團隊的努力已經得到回報,我們感謝他們的辛勤工作。

  • Now I'll turn it to Dave to provide an outlook on the market.

    現在我將請戴夫提供對市場的展望。

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you. Slide 11 contains our outlook on market conditions for the first half of 2024. The LTL market should continue to see solid demand as the recent capacity disruption in the industry continues to be sorted out. This should support further yield improvement as the new business is increasingly repriced through bid activity. In the truckload space, we believe that retail inventory is at a relatively low level. though shippers caution about the direction of the U.S. consumer behavior is governing freight demand for the time being.

    謝謝。幻燈片 11 包含我們對 2024 年上半年市場狀況的展望。隨著行業近期產能中斷問題的持續解決,零擔市場的需求應該會繼續保持強勁。隨著新業務越來越多地透過投標活動重新定價,這應該會支持收益率的進一步提高。在整車運輸領域,我們認為零售庫存處於相對較低的水平。儘管托運人警告稱,美國消費者行為的方向目前正在主導貨運需求。

  • We expect current soft conditions to continue in the first quarter with modest seasonality in the second quarter. The weather disruptions early in the year only increase the degree of difficulty for operators. On contract rates, we do not believe asset-based carriers can afford for rates to go down any further from current levels. The pace of cost inflation should ease though plentiful work alternatives in the broader economy will continue to driver retention and utilization until freight conditions improve. We expect the used equipment market will weaken further as small carriers struggle in capacity exits.

    我們預計目前的疲軟狀況將在第一季持續,第二季季節性溫和。今年年初的天氣幹擾只會增加營運商的難度。就合約費率而言,我們認為基於資產的業者無法承受費率從當前水準進一步下降的情況。成本通膨的步伐應該會放緩,但在貨運條件改善之前,更廣泛的經濟中豐富的工作選擇將繼續推動保留和利用率。我們預計,由於小型業者在運能退出方面陷入困境,二手設備市場將進一步疲軟。

  • Now on to Slide 12 for our earnings guidance. Given the unusual degree of uncertainty regarding the direction and magnitude of outcomes from bid season, the timing and degree of an inflection in market conditions and the difficulty assessing prevailing levels of demand as a result of weather disruptions in January we are adjusting our approach to earnings guidance to provide 2 quarters of forward visibility as opposed to the full year. We will reassess this approach as market conditions develop. We expect the adjusted EPS range or the EPS will range from $0.37 to $0.41 for the first quarter of 2024 and will range from $0.53 to $0.57 for the second quarter of 2024. A more detailed thoughts on the assumptions supporting these earnings expectations are provided in the earnings release available at our investor website alongside with this slide deck at investor.knight-swift.com. That concludes our prepared remarks.

    現在轉到投影片 12,了解我們的獲利指引。鑑於投標季節結果的方向和程度、市場狀況變化的時間和程度以及評估由於 1 月份天氣幹擾而導致的當前需求水平的困難,我們正在調整我們的盈利方法提供兩個季度而不是全年的前瞻性指引。隨著市場狀況的發展,我們將重新評估這種方法。我們預計2024 年第一季調整後每股盈餘範圍或每股盈餘將在0.37 美元至0.41 美元之間,2024 年第二季將在0.53 美元至0.57 美元之間。關於支持這些獲利預期的假設的更詳細想法請參閱收益報告可在我們的投資者網站上獲取,同時也可在 Investor.knight-swift.com 上查看此投影片。我們準備好的演講到此結束。

  • Ina. We will now like -- we'd like to open the line to entertain questions.

    在一個。我們現在願意開通熱線來解答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Thomas Wadewitz from UBS.

    (操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自 UBS 的 Thomas Wadewitz。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • It's Michael (inaudible) for Tom. I just wondered if you could provide a little bit more color in terms of customer activity, freight volumes over the course of December and into January. And looking at the guide for 1Q, how much weather impact is in there.

    湯姆是麥可(聽不清楚)。我只是想知道您是否可以提供更多有關 12 月和 1 月份客戶活動、貨運量方面的資訊。查看第一季的指南,其中有多少天氣影響。

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • Okay. Well, Mike, as we noted, we saw things trade down in December. What little project activity, and I would say little we anticipated modest. And I would say that we saw modest in November, probably saw less than modest in December. That traded down leading to a month that didn't produce the kind of earnings we would have expected or that we were on pace for through the first 2 months of the quarter. As we look into January thus far, the last 2 weeks have been pretty severely impacted by weather, certainly you see that we have LTL terminals that we have been shuttered particularly given our concentration through the Southeast. Certainly, it's had an impact on our productivity on the truckload side. And so I probably -- I'm not going to quantify what that means exactly what 2 weeks' worth of weather effects on a quarter's EPS. But certainly, it has tempered what we thought we would typically earn into January.

    好的。好吧,麥克,正如我們所指出的,我們看到 12 月的情況有所下降。專案活動很少,我想說的是我們的預期很少。我想說的是,我們在 11 月看到的情況很溫和,在 12 月可能看到的情況就不那麼溫和了。這種情況導致一個月的收益沒有達到我們預期的水平,也沒有達到我們在本季前兩個月的預期水平。到目前為止,當我們回顧一月份時,過去兩週受到天氣的嚴重影響,當然你會看到我們的零擔碼頭已經關閉,特別是考慮到我們的業務集中在東南部。當然,它對我們卡車裝載的生產力產生了影響。因此,我可能不會量化這意味著兩週的天氣對季度每股收益的確切影響。但可以肯定的是,它降低了我們預期一月份的收入水準。

  • Now hopefully, we'll see a little bit of a recovery as a result of things being down, but certainly not enough to make up what was lost. So there's a factor in there, probably those weeks you would see an impact to our business that would be a negative double digit in terms of revenue production for each of those weeks.

    現在希望我們能看到因經濟下滑而出現的一些復甦,但肯定不足以彌補損失。因此,其中有一個因素,可能在這幾週內,您會看到我們的業務受到影響,每一週的收入都會出現負兩位數。

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • Yes. I would say you always have some weather in the first quarter. It just depends on when it hits, right? And so I don't think this is materially different than other periods. And again, we expect that we'll have some freight that will -- that our customers have gotten behind on that will have to pick up and move. It's more of a question of do we see kind of that seasonality as it builds into March. And so right now, we're just cautious on really trying to estimate that there's an inflection early in the first half of the year. And -- so I think first quarter, we've remained relatively conservative.

    是的。我想說第一季總是有一些天氣。這只是取決於它什麼時候發生,對吧?所以我認為這與其他時期沒有本質上的不同。再說一次,我們預計我們將有一些貨物——我們的客戶已經落後了,我們將不得不提貨並轉移。問題更多的是,隨著三月的到來,我們是否會看到這種季節性。所以現在,我們對真正嘗試估計今年上半年是否會出現轉折點持謹慎態度。所以我認為第一季我們仍然相對保守。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Jack Atkins from Stephens.

    你的下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的傑克·阿特金斯。

  • Jack Lawrence Atkins - MD & Analyst

    Jack Lawrence Atkins - MD & Analyst

  • So I guess, Dave, I would love to get your thoughts on the early part of bid season so far. Obviously, we haven't seen a recovery in freight fundamentals to this point, but we're also seeing some signs that freight markets have stabilized and to your point, inventory levels are getting lower. How are shippers treating bid season? Are they trying to get the last sort of pound of flesh they can out of you? Or are they understanding that we're kind of reaching a point where you could see a turn in the market this year and they're preparing for that?

    所以我想,戴夫,我很想聽聽您對迄今為止申辦季初期的想法。顯然,到目前為止,我們還沒有看到貨運基本面的復甦,但我們也看到了一些跡象,表明貨運市場已經穩定,就您而言,庫存水準正在下降。托運人如何對待投標季節?他們是想從你身上榨取最後一磅肉嗎?或者他們是否明白,我們已經達到了今年市場可能出現轉變的地步,而他們正在為此做好準備?

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Well, Jack, it's a good question. It's a valid question. I will acknowledge we are still very early in the bid season. We are grateful for customers who have recognized the fact that rate concessions we've given have come directly out of margin because there hasn't been any cost reprieve for us through this time frame, where we're able to pass on efficiencies, if you will. So it's simply come out of margin. And if you look at the industry, the publicly traded truckload carriers, it's a common theme for all of us. And so customers who recognize that recognize where we are in the cycle, have worked with us. not to the degree where we get an increase that helps us get back to where we want to be, but also shows a sign of trying to provide some consistency in the network and allowing us to move forward.

    是的。嗯,傑克,這是個好問題。這是一個有效的問題。我承認我們仍處於投標季節的早期階段。我們感謝客戶認識到我們所提供的費率優惠直接來自於利潤,因為在這段時間內我們沒有任何成本減免,我們能夠提高效率,如果你會。所以它只是來自保證金。如果你看看這個行業,即公開上市的整車運輸公司,你會發現這是我們所有人的共同主題。因此,那些認識到我們所處週期位置的客戶就會與我們合作。並沒有達到我們獲得幫助我們回到我們想要的目標的程度,但也顯示出試圖在網路中提供一定的一致性並允許我們前進的跡象。

  • Now there are some situations where I think we do have some customers who perhaps operating under a mandate, maybe a little bit of a more short-term focus might be a little more aggressive in pushing. The reality is there is a limit to what you can do. And I think if you look at certainly our truckload model and others we compete with based on their public reports, we've hit that limit. It feels like this go around the freight market has worked in an extraordinarily efficient way where we've discovered the bottom. And that happened some time ago. around the middle of last year, it appears. And that's where we are. You've seen small carrier rates, they've hit a bottom. And so it doesn't take a lot of creativity to understand where this can go from here. A theme, I would tell you that we -- a consistent theme that we have seen through this process from many, if not -- most customers has been a very definite preference towards moving their commitments to an asset-based provider as opposed to a non-asset based broker.

    現在,在某些情況下,我認為我們確實有一些客戶可能是在授權下運營的,也許更專注於短期,可能會更積極地推動。現實是你能做的事情是有限的。我認為,如果你看看我們的卡車裝載模型以及我們根據其公開報告與之競爭的其他模型,我們已經達到了這個極限。感覺貨運市場的這種運作非常有效,我們已經發現了底部。那是不久前發生的事。看來是在去年年中左右。這就是我們現在的處境。您已經看到了較小的運營商費率,它們已經觸底。因此,不需要太多的創造力就可以理解接下來的發展方向。我想告訴你的是,我們在這個過程中從許多(如果不是的話)那裡看到了一個一致的主題,大多數客戶都非常明確地傾向於將他們的承諾轉移到基於資產的提供者,而不是基於資產的提供者。非資產經紀商。

  • I don't believe we've ever seen extreme commitments to the extremely high level of contractual commitments from brokers. And so they sit here today with this super high committed percentage of their business at incredibly low rates, which really you could say are unsustainable as we see small carrier capacity leaving as we see the bottom spot rates not keep dropping. And as we see margins evaporate in the truckload space. And so we're at a level that's not sustainable. And so we have non-asset broker capacity that is committed at these very, very low rates and certainly seems to be setting up for a squeeze there. And so some of our customers, I think, are able to read the writing on that wall. What none of us know is exactly when that's going to happen. Every day that goes by, we're a day closer to an inflection. And we've ridden out the longest trough that certainly that I've seen in to almost 24 years of being here. And so that's a little bit of the lay of the land, Jack. I'm not sure if I adequately answered your question. Do you have a follow-up to that?

    我認為我們從未見過經紀人對極高水準的合約承諾做出極端的承諾。因此,他們今天坐在這裡,以極其低的費率佔據了超高的業務承諾比例,這確實可以說是不可持續的,因為我們看到少量承運人運力離開,因為我們看到底部即期費率不會繼續下降。正如我們所看到的,卡車運輸領域的利潤正在蒸發。所以我們處於不可持續的水平。因此,我們的非資產經紀能力以非常非常低的利率承諾,而且肯定會面臨擠壓。因此,我認為我們的一些客戶能夠讀懂牆上的文字。我們誰也不知道這種情況何時會發生。每一天過去,我們離拐點又近了一天。我們已經度過了我在這裡近 24 年以來經歷過的最長的低谷。這就是實際情況,傑克。我不確定我是否充分回答了你的問題。你對此有後續行動嗎?

  • Jack Lawrence Atkins - MD & Analyst

    Jack Lawrence Atkins - MD & Analyst

  • No, you did, David. I guess I'm just trying to get a feel for some shippers really trying to get that last push or are they willing to work with you? And it sounds like the answer is they're willing to work with you a little bit here by and large. And is that the right way to kind of think about it?

    不,你做到了,大衛。我想我只是想了解一些托運人是否真的在努力爭取最後的推動,或者他們是否願意與您合作?聽起來答案是他們總體上願意與您合作。這是正確的思考方式嗎?

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • These are negotiations, and I could appreciate at our customer on the other side, they're trying to do the best they can for their interest. And I will tell you, we -- there is a place -- the Clint Eastwood line, a man's got to know his limitations there is a place where we simply cannot concede anymore. And we often get to these in cycles. But we've never been pushed this far from how high the OR gets here. But we are definitely in that place to where the alternative to accepting rate decreases is we have less commitments. We're more exposed to the spot and we have to rely on our diversified model. And so the way I would answer your question, Jack, is I would say there are some customers that I believe through this process will lead us to have a little more exposure to the spot because of perhaps a short-term objective that they have.

    這些都是談判,我可以感謝另一方的客戶,他們正在盡力為自己的利益做到最好。我會告訴你,我們——有一個地方——克林特·伊斯特伍德系列,一個人必須知道自己的局限性,有一個地方我們根本不能再讓步。我們經常循環地接觸這些。但我們從未被推離 OR 如此之高。但我們肯定處於這樣的境地:接受利率下降的替代方案是我們減少承諾。我們更多地接觸現貨,我們必須依賴我們的多元化模式。傑克,我回答你的問題的方式是,我相信有些客戶透過這個過程將使我們對該地點有更多的接觸,因為他們可能有一個短期目標。

  • Now that seems to be the minority so far. But again, it's only January. We're early on in the process. We hope that doesn't happen because that only leads to disruption for us and for them. And we think it costs more in the end. I think we could demonstrate that with data. So we hope that's not the case, but we are not in a position to lower our rates through bids right now.

    到目前為止,這似乎是少數。但再說一遍,這只是一月。我們正處於這個過程的早期階段。我們希望這種情況不會發生,因為這只會給我們和他們帶來幹擾。我們認為最終成本會更高。我認為我們可以用數據來證明這一點。因此,我們希望情況並非如此,但我們現在無法透過投標來降低費率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

    您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

  • Ravi Shanker - Executive Director

    Ravi Shanker - Executive Director

  • Dave and Adam, I would like to pick your brain on your extensive cycle knowledge, if you will, again, we've seen spot rates come up quite meaningfully in the last few weeks. Our in-house indices are also kind of looking a little bit better. I'm a little surprised that you still had late December drop off with this improvement and doesn't look like you're pointing to much better for January. Why do you think there is this disconnect between the data point and what you're seeing on the ground? If there is a disconnect? Is it weather? Is it something else? And if you can just kind of elaborate a little bit more on what happened late in the fourth quarter that we get.

    戴夫和亞當,我想請教一下你們廣泛的周期知識,如果你們願意的話,我們再次看到即期匯率在過去幾週內出現了相當有意義的變化。我們的內部指數看起來也好一點。我有點驚訝的是,您在 12 月下旬仍因這項改進而下降,而且看起來您並沒有指出 1 月份會好得多。您認為為什麼數據點與您在地面上看到的情況之間存在這種脫節?如果出現斷線情況?是天氣嗎?難道是別的什麼?如果您能詳細說明一下我們得到的第四季末發生的事情。

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think, Ravi, we have to be careful that just because some of the data is a little bit more accessible and easier to get access to in kind of almost a real time. I think we just have to be a little careful to not paint with too broad a stroke on some of those smaller data points. I do think that maybe I'll share an anecdotal that we've heard our team and our logistics group has heard this multiple times from small carriers, which is -- we're going to see what the next 4 to 6 weeks looks like and decide what we do with our business from there.

    是的。我認為,拉維,我們必須小心,因為有些數據更容易訪問,幾乎可以即時訪問。我認為我們只需要小心一點,不要在一些較小的數據點上畫得太寬。我確實認為也許我會分享一個軼事,我們的團隊和我們的物流團隊已經多次從小型承運商那裡聽到這樣的事情,那就是——我們將看看接下來的4 到6 週會是什麼樣子並從那裡決定我們如何處理我們的業務。

  • And so I do think you have some small carriers that are just basically saying, Hey, I just can't -- I can't I can't run to stand still. I can't just keep moving and getting loads, long haul loads in particular at unsustainably low rates just to keep moving and hopes that something else will happen. And so I think you're starting to see people that are just saying, hey, if it doesn't pay, I'm not going to do it. And so the market is stressed. I think a data point that's been interesting to watch has been the net revocations of authority on the last business day of the month. We've seen spikes at the last business day of November. We saw it happen again in December. December's was smaller than November. However, not very many would renew their insurance on the last business day of the calendar year. And so I suspect at the end of January, we could see that spike again.

    所以我確實認為有些小型運營商基本上只是說,嘿,我不能——我不能,我不能靜止不動。我不能只是繼續移動並獲取負載,特別是以不可持續的低費率進行長途負載,只是為了繼續移動並希望會發生其他事情。所以我認為你開始看到人們只是說,嘿,如果沒有回報,我就不會這樣做。因此市場面臨壓力。我認為一個值得關注的數據點是本月最後一個工作日的淨授權撤銷。我們在 11 月的最後一個工作日看到了高峰。 12 月我們又看到這種情況再次發生。 12 月的規模小於 11 月。然而,沒有多少人會在日曆年的最後一個工作天續保。因此,我懷疑在一月底,我們可能會再次看到這種高峰。

  • We think that spike is tied to carriers who are not able to find insurance. It isn't just increasing insurance premiums. That's been an issue, but there have been people willing to finance that, of course, pretty expensive rates on top of that, which further burden the business but allow you to live for another day. The challenge is if somebody is not willing to underwrite the risk and painfully we're aware of what that risk is with very small carriers. And we completely understand why that market is shrinking and why there are small carriers that we believe will struggle to find anybody willing to take that risk. We think we're seeing the signs of that and that data point in particular.

    我們認為這種激增與無法找到保險的承運人有關。這不僅僅是增加保險費。這是一個問題,但有人願意為此提供資金,當然,除此之外,利率相當昂貴,這進一步加重了業務負擔,但讓你可以多活一天。挑戰在於,如果有人不願意承保風險,而我們痛苦地意識到小型業者的風險是什麼。我們完全理解為什麼這個市場正在萎縮,以及為什麼我們認為小型業者將很難找到願意承擔這項風險的人。我們認為我們正在看到這種跡象,特別是那個數據點。

  • So the market is particularly stressed. So -- and as for why you might see 1 little data point to tell you something different a month like December versus maybe what we might feel over a broader period of time, I'd just say not all data is created equal.

    所以市場壓力特別大。因此,至於為什麼您可能會看到1 個小數據點來告訴您12 月等月份的情況與我們在更廣泛的一段時間內可能感受到的情況有所不同,我只想說並非所有數據都是一樣的。

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • What I'd also note, Ravi, is over the period, if you look at the last 4 weeks, you've had the holidays where you have a lot of small carriers independent contractors who were freight (inaudible). They will take time after in the market. So that puts a little pressure on finding capacity. You may see a blip in spot. And then you have the same issue as you go through weather where you have a lot of trucks, especially the safe ones that are shutting down and that puts pressure on the market. I mean, we see it in our own markets today, but it's not necessarily because demand is there, it's because you just don't have supply readily available. So I think as we watch as the weather starts to clear up, and we watch those trends over the next few weeks. I think that will be a little bit more telling than just looking at the last 4.

    拉維,我還想指出的是,如果你看看過去 4 週,你會發現假期期間有很多小型承運人獨立承包商從事貨運業務(聽不清楚)。他們需要一段時間才能進入市場。因此,這給尋找容量帶來了一些壓力。您可能會看到一個斑點。然後,當您遇到有大量卡車的天氣時,您也會遇到相同的問題,尤其是安全的卡車正在關閉,這給市場帶來了壓力。我的意思是,我們今天在自己的市場上看到了這種情況,但這不一定是因為有需求,而是因為沒有現成的供應。所以我認為,當我們觀察天氣開始晴朗時,我們會觀察接下來幾週的趨勢。我認為這比僅僅看最後 4 個更能說明問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter from Bank of America.

    您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • This is Nathan Ho dialing in for Ken Hoexter. Just wanted to focus a little bit on the encouraging signs coming out of the U.S. Xpress integration with a 99% operating ratio and the 100 basis points of sequential improvement. Now that the segment is contributing a little bit of operating profits. I'd love to understand a little more on what's next for further alignment of its high business structure. And within your first quarter and second quarter targets, what are you expecting in terms of further cost and growth synergy gains?

    我是 Nathan Ho,正在撥打 Ken Hoexter 的電話。只是想稍微關註一下 U.S. Xpress 整合帶來的令人鼓舞的跡象,營運率為 99%,環比提高了 100 個基點。現在該部門正在貢獻一點營業利潤。我很想多了解下一步如何進一步調整其高層業務結構。在您的第一季和第二季目標中,您對進一步的成本和成長協同收益有何期望?

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • David, thanks for the question. Maybe I'll start off and Adam, you can certainly chime in. And first, I used this as an opportunity to just acknowledge the wonderful people we have at U.S. Xpress couldn't -- I can't say enough good things for how they have gone to work and work together with us the degree to which they've been open to collaborate. We're just -- we're excited for them. I think that they're excited to be part of the group. And maybe to answer your question about structure and how that changes. This is a brand, an independent brand that we support. And so we have 2 leaders that have moved to Chattanooga. They did this several months ago in anticipation of the transaction.

    大衛,謝謝你的提問。也許我會開始,亞當,你當然可以插話。首先,我利用這個機會來承認我們在 U.S. Xpress 擁有的優秀員工,我不能說太多好話來說明如何他們已經開始工作並與我們一起工作,並達到了他們願意合作的程度。我們只是——我們為他們感到興奮。我認為他們很高興能成為這個團隊的一員。也許可以回答你關於結構及其變化的問題。這是一個品牌,一個我們支持的獨立品牌。我們有兩位領導人搬到了查塔努加。他們在幾個月前就這樣做了,因為他們期待著這筆交易。

  • And so they are there. They are tax paying residents of Chattanooga and have assimilated with the team. And so that business will continue to perform independently. I'd say that thus far in these first 6 months, the progress has probably been 2/3 cost, 1/3 rate. That likely flips here as we go into the next 2 quarters where rate continues to grow as cost doesn't grow at the same kind of pace, but there still are cost opportunities. As was mentioned, that Adam mentioned with the slide that we highlighted a few key things. One of those was dealing directly with our customers, not going through a broker, intermediary. And so the sales group, the operations group have worked very hard to -- when they had an abrupt change and needed to deal direct.

    所以他們就在那裡。他們是查塔努加的納稅居民,並已融入球隊。這樣業務將繼續獨立運作。我想說的是,到目前為止,在前 6 個月裡,進展可能是 2/3 成本,1/3 速度。當我們進入接下來的兩個季度時,這種情況可能會逆轉,由於成本不會以相同的速度增長,因此利率將繼續增長,但仍然存在成本機會。正如所提到的,亞當在幻燈片中提到我們強調了一些關鍵的事情。其中之一是直接與我們的客戶打交道,而不是透過經紀人或中介。因此,當銷售團隊和營運團隊突然發生變化並需要直接進行交易時,他們都非常努力地工作。

  • And so that's been a positive to the rate per mile. If we look at -- just overall, the approach in the network and their approach to bids, we've been able to bring a different mindset in terms of how they can go about building the network, and they've been very receptive to that. And so now we're receiving a steady diet, I would say, kind of across our business of about 110 bids a week is the going rate. Some of those can be mini-bids, some of those are much larger network bids. And so that's feeding into this decentralized operation that U.S. Xpress is well on their way towards that we think will lead to lower driver turnover, better operating cost with a high level of service and good returns, good revenue generated on our trucks with ORs that over time, we believe, will be in that low 80 range, similar to what we would expect over time in our Swift and Knight brands. Adam, anything else?

    因此,這對每英里的費率產生了積極的影響。如果我們從整體上看網絡的方法和他們的投標方法,我們就能夠在他們如何構建網絡方面帶來不同的思維方式,並且他們非常樂於接受那。所以現在我們正在接受穩定的飲食,我想說,我們整個業務的現行價格是每周大約 110 個出價。其中一些可能是小型出價,其中一些是更大的網路出價。因此,這正在融入U.S. Xpress 正在朝著的分散化營運方向發展,我們認為這將帶來更低的司機流動率、更好的營運成本以及高水準的服務和良好的回報,我們的卡車將產生良好的收入,ORs 超過我們相信,時間將在 80 左右的範圍內,類似於我們對 Swift 和 Knight 品牌隨著時間的推移的預期。亞當,還有什麼嗎?

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • I mean, I think you hit it well. Again, I'd just highlight being more active in the bid season, probably having more opportunities with customers that have relationships with our other asset-based brands that will open new doors for U.S. Xpress. And then just continued progress on closing the rate gap between U.S. Xpress and our other asset-based brands. And so I think we'll -- we expect to make progress. It's tougher to do that on rate in an environment where you don't have much wind at your back. And so they've been able to make sequential progress despite that. When -- I think there is a more favorable environment, we'd expect that progress to ramp up very quickly.

    我的意思是,我認為你打得很好。再次,我想強調在投標季節更加積極,可能與與我們其他基於資產的品牌有關係的客戶有更多機會,這將為 U.S. Xpress 打開新的大門。然後,我們在縮小 U.S. Xpress 與我們其他基於資產的品牌之間的費率差距方面不斷取得進展。所以我認為我們會——我們期望取得進展。在沒有太多風的環境中,要按速率做到這一點會更加困難。儘管如此,他們還是能夠取得連續的進展。當我認為有一個更有利的環境時,我們預計進展很快就會加快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Bruce Chan from Stifel.

    您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Bruce Chan。

  • Jizong Chan - Associate VP & Equity Research Analyst

    Jizong Chan - Associate VP & Equity Research Analyst

  • Afternoon gents, just insurance side, it was good to see the progress with growth in the LTL segment. Maybe just wanted to get your thoughts on the time line for how those new terminals are going to come online especially as you start to think about the potential for maybe any margin drag as you spool that network up, anything that we should be watching there as we model out the OR?

    下午先生們,就保險方面而言,很高興看到零擔業務的成長取得進展。也許只是想了解您對這些新終端將如何上線的時間線的想法,特別是當您開始考慮在網絡運行時可能會出現任何利潤拖累的可能性時,我們應該在那裡關注的任何事情我們模擬出OR?

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, let me -- maybe I'll talk for a moment here on what some of the cadence of what these look like. And then maybe, Adam, if you want to chime in on tempering OR as we do this. But we will acknowledge first off, Bruce, that since 2021, we've opened 14 locations. While we've seen that OR, consistently on an annual basis, improve as we've settled into that mid-80s. So we like that along the way about this time last year that we were integrating the MME network and the AAA Cooper network.

    好吧,讓我——也許我會在這裡談談這些的一些節奏。然後也許,亞當,如果你想插話調教或我們這樣做的話。但 Bruce,我們首先要承認,自 2021 年以來,我們已經開設了 14 家門市。雖然我們已經看到 OR 每年都在持續改善,但隨著我們進入 80 年代中期。所以我們喜歡去年這個時候我們整合 MME 網路和 AAA Cooper 網路。

  • And so those are operating on 1 network. So from a technology optimization standpoint, we're just 1 LTL company. But from a uniform and relationship in the local markets, we appear, and we work with 2 different brands, MME in one region of the country and AAA Cooper in another. And so we anticipate that as we have opportunities to enter new markets through organic and also through acquisitions that, that will continue in -- for the most part, with acquisitions.

    所以這些都在 1 個網路上運作。因此,從技術優化的角度來看,我們只是一家零擔公司。但從制服和當地市場的關係來看,我們出現了,我們與兩個不同的品牌合作,一個是全國一個地區的 MME,另一個是 AAA Cooper。因此,我們預計,隨著我們有機會透過有機方式和收購進入新市場,這種情況將在很大程度上透過收購繼續下去。

  • Now as for organic, we mentioned we have 25 in the pipeline. 5 of those locations just opened up this week and so there's 20 more that we'll cycle through the remainder of the year. Probably about half of those we expect to be open in the first half of the year. and then the remainder in the back half. First 60 days, we're really trying to get -- build up enough volume to breakeven. And that's largely done by opening up those new service ZIP codes to 3PLs. And then over the course of the year, you get a chance to build out that business through the nationwide bids. There's also some local business we'll often pick up in addition to things that comes through the 3PLs.

    至於有機食品,我們提到我們正在準備 25 種有機食品。其中 5 個地點本週剛開業,因此我們將在今年剩餘時間循環訪問另外 20 個地點。我們預計將在今年上半年開放的酒店中,大約有一半左右。然後剩下的在後半部分。在前 60 天,我們確實在努力建立足夠的交易量以實現收支平衡。這主要是透過向 3PL 開放這些新的服務郵遞區號來實現的。然後在這一年中,您有機會透過全國範圍的投標來拓展該業務。除了透過 3PL 提供的服務之外,我們也經常會接一些本地業務。

  • There are still some additional locations through the yellow bankruptcy that we're pursuing. And so we think -- we expect that the 25 number will grow. And those will likely be on the lease side. Those are in the process of being settled as we speak. So this is very measured growth, I would say. I'll give you an example. The 5 locations we just opened are in the bustling cities of West Burlington, Iowa for Cherry ville, Kansas or Rock Island, Illinois or Forest City, Arkansas or Wichita Falls, Texas. So these are smaller markets. These are not huge facilities. We've been able to procure these at attractive rates on a per door basis. And so this is -- I would say that it's a is a very conservative growth plan. But nonetheless, there will be some pressure to OR in those locations. Adam, any thoughts on.

    我們正在尋求透過黃色破產的其他一些地點。所以我們認為——我們預計 25 個數字將會成長。這些可能是在租賃方面。截至我們發言時,這些問題正在解決中。所以我想說,這是一次非常謹慎的成長。我給你舉個例子。我們剛開設的 5 家門市分別位於愛荷華州西伯靈頓、堪薩斯州切裡維爾、伊利諾州羅克艾蘭、阿肯色州森林城或德州威奇托福爾斯等繁華城市。所以這些都是較小的市場。這些並不是很大的設施。我們能夠以極具吸引力的價格以門採購這些產品。所以我想說這是一個非常保守的成長計畫。但儘管如此,在這些地方,手術室還是會面臨一些壓力。亞當,有什麼想法嗎?

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • Yes. I think as you mentioned, it does take 60 to 90 days to build up volume to breakeven. So it does put a little OR pressure on the business. And so you may see a maybe a sequential change from Q4 to Q1, that's a little higher than normal seasonality. But I do feel like once we get our legs under us, at least with the first kind of the first batch of them or maybe the first half. There'll be -- that revenue generation of that half will more than offset the cost that we experienced from ramping up the back half. So I don't see a material impact. But maybe earlier in the year, we would feel that, and then we would be ramping that in the back half.

    是的。我認為正如您所提到的,確實需要 60 到 90 天的時間才能增加交易量以實現盈虧平衡。所以確實給業務帶來了一點OR壓力。因此,您可能會看到從第四季度到第一季的連續變化,這比正常的季節性要高一些。但我確實覺得,一旦我們站穩腳跟,至少是第一批的第一種,或者可能是前半部。這一半的收入將遠遠抵消我們因增加後半部而經歷的成本。所以我沒有看到實質影響。但也許在今年早些時候,我們會感覺到這一點,然後我們會在下半年加大力度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger from Goldman Sachs.

    你的下一個問題來自高盛的喬丹·阿利格(Jordan Alliger)。

  • Jordan Robert Alliger - Research Analyst

    Jordan Robert Alliger - Research Analyst

  • Just to follow up a little bit on the last question, it's very helpful to think about this year and growth. Obviously, there -- looking at your map, there's -- I think you talked about over time, going from super regional to a national LTL carrier. There's obviously some gaps in the math that exists today. So I'm just sort of curious, how long does it take to go to cover more of the country in some of the areas that you're not in now in just the current plan even this year include newer areas? Or will that have to come more in like a chunky type of acquisition type of a deal?

    稍微跟進最後一個問題,思考今年和成長是非常有幫助的。顯然,看看你的地圖,我想你談到了隨著時間的推移,從超級區域運輸公司轉變為全國零擔運輸公司。當今的數學顯然存在一些缺陷。所以我只是有點好奇,即使今年包括了新的地區,在目前的計劃中還沒有覆蓋到的一些地區需要多長時間才能覆蓋全國更多地區?或者這必須更像是一種大塊收購類型的交易?

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • I appreciate the question, Jordan. We realistically, we would anticipate over the next 2 years being able to consider ourselves as having nationwide coverage that was in-house. So of course, today, with interline partners, we do -- we can service the whole nation, but there's -- we'll get access to nationwide network bids when we can do that all in-house together in a system. And so we expect for that map to look less super regional and more nationwide over the next 2 years. A lot of these locations that we just referred to that are the 25 call it, that we have in the pipeline plus perhaps we may add another 10, let's say, lease type facilities on top of that. Those are largely gap fillers, if you will. Those fill in space is part of a very intentional effort so that we can acquire some chunks, as you will.

    我很欣賞這個問題,喬丹。實際上,我們預計在未來兩年內能夠將自己視為擁有全國範圍內的內部覆蓋範圍。當然,今天,與聯運合作夥伴一起,我們可以為整個國家提供服務,但是,當我們可以在一個系統內部一起完成所有這些工作時,我們將獲得全國範圍的網絡投標。因此,我們預計未來兩年該地圖將不再是超級區域性的,而是更全國性的。我們剛才提到的許多地點都是 25 個,我們正在籌備中,也許我們可能會在此基礎上再增加另外 10 個,比方說,租賃類型的設施。如果你願意的話,這些很大程度上是填補空白。這些填充空間是非常有意的努力的一部分,以便我們能夠像您一樣獲得一些塊。

  • I think you referred to it in other regions that we don't currently service. So we are -- this is a multiyear plan, but it's not as far out as you might think. So we're well on our way. I would say that the yellow terminals, I would say, we purchased LTL terminals from 2 other businesses that no longer use them or also went through a bankruptcy or liquidation process, those have been wonderful gifts for us. I mean it would have cost us to go acquire the land and build these, we would have had a much more significant capital investment. And so we're grateful that these have come. We've taken a very conservative approach here. But we're on our way. Hopefully, by the end of 2025, we're able to show you a map that makes it very clear we're a nationwide LTL network.

    我認為您提到了我們目前不提供服務的其他地區。所以我們——這是一個多年計劃,但它並不像你想像的那麼遙遠。所以我們一切順利。我想說的是,黃色終端,我們從另外兩家不再使用它們的企業購買了零擔終端,或者也經歷了破產或清算程序,這些對我們來說都是很棒的禮物。我的意思是,我們需要花更多的錢來購買土地並建造這些設施,我們將有更重要的資本投資。所以我們很感激這些的到來。我們在這裡採取了非常保守的方法。但我們正在路上。希望在 2025 年底,我們能夠向您展示一張地圖,清楚地表明我們是一個全國性的零擔網絡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Allison Poliniak from Wells Fargo.

    您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的艾莉森·波利尼亞克 (Allison Poliniak)。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • It's James on for Allison. Just wanted to ask about TL capacity and just the amount that it's oversupplied. Do you expect sort of a clearing event to push out some of the capacity and drive exit? Or do you kind of see more of a gradual process? And kind of what i'm trying to get at realistically is without a clearing event, could you realistically see contract rates up in the second half versus the first half? Or do you really need a clearing event and not the gradual to see positive rates in the second half?

    詹姆斯換下艾利森。只是想詢問 TL 容量以及供應過剩的數量。您是否預期某種清算事件會推出一些產能並推動退出?還是你認為更多的是漸進的過程?我實際上想要達到的目標是,在沒有清算事件的情況下,你能真正看到下半年的合約利率比上半年有所上升嗎?或者你真的需要一個清算事件而不是在下半年逐步看到正利率嗎?

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, James, it's impossible to predict exactly how it's going to go. If we look at previous cycles, you get -- you have several challenges that sometimes there's a little catalyst, whether it could be a spike in fuel prices back in the day. I think we've seen even a weather event before that had a big impact there. or a material change in demand. We're not seeing a big material change coming in demand. The fact that inventories have been drawn down so much. hopefully, a day is coming where there's a little bit more mindset for growth. It feels a little bit like retailers have a more conservative view and are focused on profits as opposed to top line.

    好吧,詹姆斯,不可能準確預測事情會如何發展。如果我們看看之前的周期,你會發現,你會遇到一些挑戰,有時會有一些催化劑,是否可能是當時燃油價格的飆升。我認為我們之前甚至見過對那裡產生重大影響的天氣事件。或需求發生重大變化。我們沒有看到需求有重大的實質變化。事實上,庫存已經減少很多了。希望有一天,人們會有更多的成長心態。感覺有點像零售商的觀點更為保守,關注的是利潤而不是營收。

  • And we would benefit a little bit more in a top line-focused environment. But I think that the -- in this business, a capital-intensive business, if you take time off investing in the capital or investing the capital that's required, it starts to really catch up with you. And the cost of new equipment continues to be inflationary. The values for used equipment have dropped after being at record high prices, which is in many cases where -- when people acquire their equipment. And so there's a limited useful life to the assets that they have. And so you can get by for a while, but eventually things start to accumulate. It appears that insurance could serve as a bit of a catalyst that finally is that final straw for people.

    在以營收為中心的環境中,我們會受益更多。但我認為,在這個資本密集型企業中,如果你花時間投資資本或投資所需的資本,它就會開始真正追上你。新設備的成本持續上漲。二手設備的價值在達到創紀錄的高價後已經下降,這在許多情況下是在人們購買設備時發生的。因此,他們所擁有的資產的使用壽命是有限的。所以你可以度過一段時間,但最終事情會開始累積。看來保險可以起到一定的催化劑作用,最終成為壓垮人們的最後一根稻草。

  • But 1 thing that we have seen in previous cycles is this seems to snowball. An Avalanche might be too strong, but we're as these things all accumulate, eventually, you hit a tipping point and once capacity starts to come out, it's just the beginning. And as capacity starts to come out, financing dries up, nobody wants to take the risk operating environment gets difficult, small carriers perhaps cut corners. Next thing you know, they become too risky to insure. And so there's just kind of a chain of events that start to happen. So it's hard to guess exactly when that's going to be or how far we are down that path. Our view here is going to be a very difficult first quarter for small carriers, which is -- we're well on our way to the probably 2-year anniversary where it's hard to think that a small carrier would have profit really over a nearly 2-year span. And so that's -- that's probably the best I could say for that. And so we just watch for these indicators that give us a sense for all of the different factors that are accumulating, and then we see if there's this kind of avalanche effect.

    但我們在之前的周期中看到的一件事是,這似乎像滾雪球一樣越滾越大。雪崩可能太強大了,但我們隨著這些事情的積累,最終會達到一個臨界點,一旦容量開始顯現,這只是一個開始。隨著運力開始顯現,融資枯竭,沒有人願意冒經營環境變得困難的風險,小型承運人可能會走捷徑。接下來你知道,它們的風險太大而無法投保。所以一連串的事件開始發生。因此,很難準確猜測這會發生在什麼時候,或者我們在這條道路上走了多遠。我們認為,對於小型運營商來說,第一季將是非常困難的,我們即將迎來成立兩週年紀念日,很難想像小型運營商會在近兩年內真正獲得利潤。2 年跨度。這可能是我能說的最好的了。因此,我們只需關注這些指標,讓我們了解正在累積的所有不同因素,然後我們看看是否存在這種雪崩效應。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Got it. And but without that avalanche effect, there would still be incremental rate pressure in the second half? Or is it sort of trending where it could actually still improve without the avalanche sort of to the point of it.

    知道了。但如果沒有雪崩效應,下半年利率壓力仍會增加嗎?或者說它是一種趨勢,實際上仍然可以改善,而不會出現雪崩的情況。

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, we're not getting a read on broader economic demand that says that, that could be a catalyst. So we think this will be supply driven. As we feel that most, if not all, trucking cycles have really come on the undersupply side. Maybe '04, '05, '06, -- those were some banner economic years that maybe that was the exception to that. But outside of '04, '05, '06, it sure feels like every other cycle has been supply induced. Every of the recovery, I should say, has been due to a pretty meaningful reduction in supply. This one, our economic outlook on the freight side is that, yes, the inflection has to come from supply. There's not enough not enough to make us think that the demand is going to be enough lift on its own.

    是的,我們沒有了解到更廣泛的經濟需求表明這可能是一種催化劑。所以我們認為這將是供應驅動的。我們認為,大多數(如果不是全部)卡車運輸週期確實出現了供應不足的情況。也許'04、'05、'06——那些是一些標誌性的經濟年份,也許這是例外。但除了 04 年、05 年、06 年之外,確實感覺每個其他週期都是由供應引起的。我應該說,每次復甦都是因為供應量大幅減少。我們對貨運方面的經濟前景是,是的,變化必須來自供應。還不夠,不足以讓我們認為需求本身就能帶來足夠的提升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Jason Seidl from TD Cowen.

    您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Jason Seidl。

  • Jason H. Seidl - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Jason H. Seidl - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • So I know you weren't giving exact guidance for the remainder of the year. But I guess given some of the gains that you guys have seen with U.S. X and I guess, a gradual improvement in the marketplace. How confident are you that you're going to be able to grow earnings in the back half of the year, excluding insurance? And then I guess just real quick, what percent of your book of business gets repriced in the truckload section on a quarterly basis?

    所以我知道您沒有為今年剩餘時間提供準確的指導。但我想,考慮到你們在 U.S. X 上看到的一些收益,我想,市場正在逐步改善。您對下半年收入成長(不包括保險業務)的信心有多大?然後我想很快,您的業務賬簿的百分之多少會按季度在卡車裝載部分重新定價?

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Well, Jason, I appreciate the question. And I would say that if we really felt -- if we felt like we had a really good read to speak on the second half, we would have done that through our guidance. So for now, we're just going to stop with what we've given for the first 2 quarters in terms of guidance. Now clearly, what you see is you see a range in the second quarter that's better than the first quarter. And so it would be safe to assume that we don't see -- we're not expecting a big drop off. We think the worst is behind us, but that's as far as I think we would feel comfortable to talk about that right now. As for what percentage of our business might turn over, I think with technology, it's rather easy for many of our customers to do what we call mini bids, which is in essence, they fire off an electronic request for us to bid on a handful of lanes. And so we are bidding on freight every single week of the year.

    是的。嗯,傑森,我很欣賞這個問題。我想說,如果我們真的覺得——如果我們覺得我們在下半場有一個很好的閱讀可以發言,我們就會透過我們的指導來做到這一點。因此,目前我們將停止提供前兩個季度的指導。現在很明顯,您看到的是第二季的範圍比第一季更好。因此,可以安全地假設我們不會看到——我們預計不會大幅下降。我們認為最糟糕的情況已經過去,但我認為我們現在可以放心地談論這個問題。至於我們的業務可能翻身的比例是多少,我認為借助技術,我們的許多客戶可以輕鬆地進行我們所說的迷你投標,本質上是他們向我們發出電子請求,要求我們對少數幾個投標進行投標車道。因此,我們每年都會對貨運進行競價。

  • Now the majority of the network bids, if you will, is a, call it, mid to late November through call it, April with these awards largely materializing before the end of the second quarter. It used to be like everybody fit in a pretty tight window there. And Today, again, I think technology is a factor in that. It's not such an undertaking for them. It's kind of spread out. So I hope that helps. I hope that gives you a bit of a sense. So the majority of our incumbent business will be repriced over the first 6 months of the year.

    現在,如果您願意的話,大多數網路投標都是從 11 月中旬到下旬到 4 月份,這些獎勵大部分在第二季末之前兌現。過去就像每個人都擠在一個非常狹窄的窗戶裡。今天,我再次認為科技是其中的一個因素。這對他們來說不是一項任務。它有點分散。所以我希望這會有所幫助。我希望這能給你一點感覺。因此,我們的大部分現有業務將在今年前 6 個月重新定價。

  • Jason H. Seidl - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Jason H. Seidl - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • No. No. That's helpful. And has the duration of the contracts changed any? Or have the shippers been pushing for longer contracts?

    不,不,這很有幫助。合約期限有變動嗎?或者托運人是否一直在爭取更長的合約?

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • It depends on who feels like they have leverage in the market. And usually, they're agreed to for a certain amount of time. I will tell you that there are some shippers that are pulling forward bids that they normally would do later in the year, and they're pulling them from, call it, June to February. You can guess maybe what their motivation might be to do or what might drive that. And it sure seems like our customers expect that rates are going to be up in the second half of the year. That's what the behavior is showing us. So it sometimes can that sometimes can change, Jason, is what I'm saying.

    這取決於誰覺得自己在市場上有影響力。通常,他們會同意一段時間。我會告訴你,有一些托運人正在將他們通常會在今年晚些時候進行的投標提前,他們將其從六月推遲到二月。你可以猜測他們這樣做的動機是什麼,或者是什麼驅動了他們這樣做。我們的客戶似乎預計下半年費率將會上漲。這就是行為向我們展示的。所以有時可以,有時可以改變,傑森,這就是我所說的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman from Vertical Research.

    你的下一個問題來自垂直研究的傑夫·考夫曼(Jeff Kauffman)。

  • Jeffrey Asher Kauffman - Partner

    Jeffrey Asher Kauffman - Partner

  • 2 quick questions. A little more number detail big jump in insurance costs this quarter. Could you talk a little bit about what went on, on the insurance. Is this related to what happened in nonreportable? Is this something different? But it looks like that was up something in the neighborhood of almost $36 million, $40 million this quarter.

    2 個快速問題。更多的數字詳細說明了本季保險成本的大幅上漲。能談談保險方面發生的事情嗎?這與不可報告中發生的事情有關嗎?這有什麼不同嗎?但看起來本季的增幅約為 3,600 萬至 4,000 萬美元。

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • Yes. So Jeff, that -- you're right. I mean that's related to the insurance business and the decision to exit that and just to try to fully accrue the claims that we have outstanding in this business, so we can run them out without seeing much of an impact in the 2024 results. So that would be the largest driving factor.

    是的。所以傑夫,你是對的。我的意思是,這與保險業務以及退出保險業務的決定有關,只是為了嘗試充分累積我們在該業務中未清償的索賠,這樣我們就可以用完它們,而不會看到對2024 年業績產生太大影響。所以這將是最大的驅動因素。

  • Jeffrey Asher Kauffman - Partner

    Jeffrey Asher Kauffman - Partner

  • All right. Can you help us understand that? I know you said you're going to be exited from the business at the end of 1Q, so was this 71 really a bit of a forward-looking charge where we're accruing liabilities and after 1Q, is that going to be all we're going to hear from insurance business? Or there are going to be some legs that occur after that even though you've exited the business and have kind of closed that out.

    好的。你能幫助我們理解這一點嗎?我知道你說過你將在第一季末退出該業務,所以這 71 真的是一個前瞻性的費用,我們正在累積負債,在第一季之後,這就是我們的全部會收到保險業務的訊息嗎?或者即使您已經退出該業務並已經結束了該業務,此後也會出現一些問題。

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • Yes. You can't look forward liabilities. And so I think we looked at the claims to development and how that had been growing over time. and took a more conservative approach at reviewing the potential growth and inner of the book of business, and that led to a higher accrual that we believe will actively reflects what exposure we have today. we'll have -- because we have to give certain notice to the insurees before we can cancel policy, there is this runout period. We have reduced exposure greatly already. And so I think there's pretty limited financial impact we'd expect in Q1. And then it's essentially running out the claims and closing out the outstanding liabilities over the next probably year or 2.

    是的。你不能預見負債。因此,我認為我們研究了對發展的主張以及隨著時間的推移,這種主張是如何增長的。並採取了更保守的方法來審查潛在的成長和業務的內部,這導致了更高的應計費用,我們相信這將積極反映我們今天所擁有的風險。我們將--因為我們必須在取消保單之前向被保險人發出一定的通知,所以有一個截止期。我們已經大大減少了曝光。因此,我認為我們預計第一季的財務影響相當有限。然後,它基本上會在接下來的一兩年內耗盡索賠並結清未償債務。

  • Jeffrey Asher Kauffman - Partner

    Jeffrey Asher Kauffman - Partner

  • Okay. And then just one last clarification on that. So if I look at this as an unusual event, making a decision to exit a business, I want to try to segregate that from the operating activities of the business in the fourth quarter. What would that split of the $71.7 million be?

    好的。最後對此進行澄清。因此,如果我將此視為一個不尋常的事件,做出退出業務的決定,我想嘗試將其與第四季度的業務運營活動分開。 7170 萬美元中的那一部分是多少?

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • Maybe I didn't understand the question.

    也許我沒明白這個問題。

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • How much would have maybe been tied to maybe a receivable or insurance or a software versus the claims? Is that what you are saying?

    與索賠相比,有多少可能與應收帳款、保險或軟體相關?你是這麼說的嗎?

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • Is that what you're asking, Jeff?

    傑夫,這就是你問的嗎?

  • Jeffrey Asher Kauffman - Partner

    Jeffrey Asher Kauffman - Partner

  • I'm asking if we did not exit the business, what would that $71.7 million would look like operating wise in the quarter?

    我問的是,如果我們不退出該業務,這 7,170 萬美元在本季的營運情況會如何?

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • Yes. We don't have that. We haven't differentiated. Yes.

    是的。我們沒有那個。我們沒有區別對待。是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee from Citi Group.

    您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

  • Christian F. Wetherbee - MD & Lead Analyst

    Christian F. Wetherbee - MD & Lead Analyst

  • Maybe along a similar line, as you think about nonreportable ex insurance, so if we kind of put that aside for the time being, can you sort of remind us how we should think about the cadence of that business as we go over the course of the year? I know there's often there has been historically some seasonal work in there, but just give us a sense of what we should be thinking from a baseline perspective because we've had insurance in there on a look-back period.

    也許沿著類似的思路,當您考慮不可報告的前保險時,因此,如果我們暫時將其放在一邊,您能否提醒我們在整個過程中應該如何考慮該業務的節奏那一年?我知道歷史上經常有一些季節性工作,但只是讓我們了解我們應該從基線角度思考什麼,因為我們在回顧期內有保險。

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • Yes. So if you exclude insurance, sometimes it depends on some seasonal projects, Chris. So we've got a warehousing business that slows in Q4. And so you'll see a seasonal decline there. but it does ramp up again in Q1 and is typically strong through the remainder of the year. sometimes we do a trailer leasing project in Q4, if you're absent of that, then you see -- you don't see a lift there. Sometimes you can see a lift there. So there's kind of sometimes depends on what activity you see there. I think once you get into Q1, it's relatively stable until you hit Q4, which you could see a drop or it could be stable. I hope that (inaudible) question.

    是的。所以,如果你排除保險,有時它取決於一些季節性項目,克里斯。因此,我們的倉儲業務在第四季放緩。所以你會看到那裡的季節性下降。但它確實在第一季再次上升,並且通常在今年剩餘時間內保持強勁。有時我們在第四季度會做一個拖車租賃項目,如果你沒有這樣做,那麼你會看到 - 你在那裡看不到電梯。有時你可以看到那裡有電梯。因此,有時取決於您在那裡看到的活動。我認為一旦進入第一季度,它就會相對穩定,直到進入第四季度,你可能會看到下降,也可能會保持穩定。我希望這個(聽不清楚)問題。

  • Christian F. Wetherbee - MD & Lead Analyst

    Christian F. Wetherbee - MD & Lead Analyst

  • It is from a seasonal perspective and maybe any sense around magnitude if we can maybe look back at '23 and think about what the numbers actually look like. There's just some noise in there. So just trying to get a sense of level setting what the earnings power of nonreportable might be going forward.

    這是從季節性角度來看的,如果我們可以回顧一下 23 年並思考一下這些數字實際上是什麼樣子的話,也許對規模有任何意義。只是裡面有一些噪音。因此,我只是想了解非報告型企業未來獲利能力的水平。

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • Yes. So I think if you look at 23 and you pull out the insurance numbers, you'll get probably a decent idea of how that flows from a seasonality standpoint.

    是的。所以我認為,如果你看看 23 並拿出保險數據,你可能會從季節性的角度清楚地了解它是如何流動的。

  • Christian F. Wetherbee - MD & Lead Analyst

    Christian F. Wetherbee - MD & Lead Analyst

  • Okay. All right. That's helpful. And then maybe just 1 on U.S. X. You guys have talked about that and obviously some improvement there turning profitable. I guess as you think about where you are relative to the guidance you had given us when you closed the transaction in terms of the potential accretion from the dollar of earnings. I guess where are you in that process? Do you feel like you're on schedule, ahead of schedule, behind? Just kind of get a sense because obviously, the market has moved around a little bit, too.

    好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後也許在 U.S. X 上只有 1。你們已經討論過這一點,顯然那裡的一些改進已經開始盈利。我想,當你考慮一下你在完成交易時給我們的指導時,就美元收益的潛在增值而言,你的處境如何。我猜你在這個過程中處於什麼位置?您覺得自己按計劃進行、提前還是落後?只是有點感覺,因為顯然,市場也發生了一些變化。

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • So Chris, you're breaking the rule on 1 question, right? But since it's late in the game I'll answer this quickly, right? So I'd say, hey, we're ahead of schedule, especially on the cost side of the business, and we're encouraged with the fact that we've been able to make some progress on rate and sequential progress on rates from third to fourth without the help of the market. And so we feel well positioned that when the market does turn, that we'll be able to close the gap between a historic Knight-Swift OR to U.S. Xpress OR and certainly would be in line to achieve the dollar EPS accretion that we're targeting.

    克里斯,你在 1 個問題上違反了規則,對嗎?不過現在已經很晚了,我會盡快回答這個問題,對吧?所以我想說,嘿,我們提前了,特別是在業務成本方面,我們感到鼓舞的是,我們已經能夠在費率方面取得一些進展,並且在費率方面取得連續進展第三到第四,沒有市場的幫助。因此,我們感覺自己處於有利位置,當市場確實發生轉變時,我們將能夠縮小歷史性的 Knight-Swift OR 與 U.S. Xpress OR 之間的差距,並且肯定會實現我們正在實現的美元每股收益增長。瞄準。

  • This will probably be our last question here.

    這可能是我們在這裡的最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

    你的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的斯科特集團。

  • Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

    Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

  • So I know the last 2 questions you've just touched on this, but can you just maybe clarify for all of us. What was the total number of insurance losses in '23? .

    我知道您剛剛提到的最後兩個問題,但您能否為我們所有人澄清一下。 23 年保險損失總數是多少? 。

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, I don't have that right on me. It's a little bit skewed because it's a little apples to oranges when you look at some of what went into the $71.7 million versus expenses or losses that we had in the other 3 quarters. But.

    是的,我沒有這個權利。它有點不平衡,因為當你看到 7170 萬美元的部分內容與我們在其他 3 個季度的支出或損失相比,這有點像蘋果和橘子。但。

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • Yes. So Scott, it's about $125 million is where we ended for the -- for 2023.

    是的。 Scott,我們在 2023 年的目標是大約 1.25 億美元。

  • David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

    David A. Jackson - President, CEO & Director

  • And that's going to include some extra thing, extra cost to prepare us here as we exit the business.

    這將包括一些額外的事情,額外的成本,以便我們在退出業務時做好準備。

  • Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

    Scott H. Group - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Perfect. Super helpful. Okay. And then can I just -- I want to just try and understand the guidance a little bit better, right? So Q4 underlying $0.39, you're sort of telling us Q1 $0.39. I don't know that, that's ever happened where it doesn't go down. And then Q1 to Q2 has got a decent -- probably a better than normal step up. And it doesn't sound like you guys are counting on things to get a whole lot better yet. So I'm -- just trying to understand what's driving the much better than normal sequential if we're not counting on better than normal sort of demand or pricing yet?

    完美的。超有幫助。好的。然後我可以——我想嘗試更好地理解指導,對吧?因此,第四季度的基礎價格為 0.39 美元,您可以告訴我們第一季的基礎價格為 0.39 美元。我不知道,這種事曾經發生過,而且沒有下降。然後從第一季到第二季都有了不錯的進步——可能比正常情況更好。聽起來你們並不期待事情會變得更好。所以我只是想了解,如果我們還不指望比正常的需求或定價更好的話,是什麼推動了比正常的順序更好的發展?

  • Adam W. Miller - CFO

    Adam W. Miller - CFO

  • Yes. So a couple of things, Scott. First of all, because I look at the same way at times in because your mine gets stuck in thinking we're just a truckload carrier, right? And also you're thinking that truckload carrier that has a nice fourth quarter. So we certainly didn't see the lift in the fourth quarter. And so we don't expect to take the same step down from Q4 to Q1. And then usually, LTL, fourth quarter is not a great quarter for LTL, usually they see a little bit of a lift into Q1, which we'd expect. And then some of the nonreportable excluding the insurance, like I mentioned, the warehousing business, you see that slow down meaningfully in Q4, and then that ramps back up into Q1. So there's some counter seasonal businesses that we've layered into the model, which we mean you don't see the same volatility from Q4 to Q1.

    是的。有幾件事,斯科特。首先,因為我有時也會以同樣的方式看待,因為你的礦井陷入了認為我們只是卡車承運人的困境,對嗎?而且您也認為卡車運輸公司第四季的表現不錯。所以我們肯定沒有看到第四季的提升。因此,我們預計第四季到第一季不會採取同樣的措施。通常,LTL,第四季度對於 LTL 來說並不是一個很好的季度,通常他們會看到第一季略有成長,這是我們所期望的。然後一些不可報告的業務(不包括保險),就像我提到的,倉儲業務,你會發現第四季度的成長明顯放緩,然後到第一季又回升。因此,我們在模型中加入了一些反季節性業務,這意味著從第四季度到第一季您不會看到相同的波動性。

  • Well, thanks, Ina, for helping moderate our call. Everybody, we appreciate you joining and your interest in our company. Enjoy your evening.

    好的,謝謝伊娜幫忙主持我們的通話。各位,我們感謝您的加入以及您對我們公司的興趣。享受你的夜晚。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。