Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc (KNX) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is JP, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Knight-Swift Transportation First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Speakers from today's call will be Dave Jackson, President and CEO; Mr. Adam Miller, CFO. Mr. Miller, the meeting is now yours.

下午好。我叫 JP，今天我將擔任您的會議接線員。此時，歡迎大家參加 Knight-Swift Transportation 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天電話會議的發言人將是總裁兼首席執行官戴夫傑克遜；首席財務官 Adam Miller 先生。米勒先生，現在由您來開會。

Thank you, JP, and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Today, we plan to discuss topics related to the results of the quarter, provide an update on current market conditions and update our full year 2023 guidance. We have slides to accompany this call, which are posted on our investor website. Our call is scheduled to go until 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time. And following our commentary, we'll answer many questions on these topics as we receive. (Operator Instructions) We will answer as many questions as time will allow. If we're not able to get to your question due to time restrictions, you may call (602) 606-6349.

謝謝你，JP，大家下午好，感謝你加入我們的 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天，我們計劃討論與本季度業績相關的話題，提供當前市場狀況的最新信息，並更新我們的 2023 年全年指引。我們有幻燈片隨此電話會議發佈在我們的投資者網站上。我們的通話定於下午 5:30 結束。東部時間。在我們的評論之後，我們將在收到時回答有關這些主題的許多問題。 （操作員說明）我們將在時間允許的情況下回答盡可能多的問題。如果由於時間限制我們無法回答您的問題，您可以致電 (602) 606-6349。

To begin, I'll first refer you to the disclosures on Slide 2 of the presentation and note the following. This conference call and presentation may contain forward-looking statements made by the company that involve risks, assumptions and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Investors are directed to the information contained in Item 1A Risk Factors or Part 1 of the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the United States SEC for a discussion of the risks that may affect the company's future operating results. Actual results may differ.

首先，我將首先向您介紹演示文稿幻燈片 2 中的披露內容，並註意以下內容。本次電話會議和演示文稿可能包含公司作出的涉及難以預測的風險、假設和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。投資者應參考公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格年度報告第 1A 項風險因素或第 1 部分中包含的信息，以討論可能影響公司未來經營業績的風險。實際結果可能有所不同。

Before we get into the slides, I want to turn the call over to Dave Jackson for a few opening remarks.

在我們進入幻燈片之前，我想把電話轉給戴夫·傑克遜，讓他做一些開場白。

Thanks, Adam, and good afternoon, good evening, everyone. Appreciate you joining our call. I wanted to begin by acknowledging that we recognize that we cannot entirely escape the cyclicality, the full truckload industry, but we have taken intentional steps for years to maximize our performance in every phase of the cycle. This has included truckload acquisitions, the development of technology and a business strategy to create maximum value for our customers in strong times and to diversify our income streams to mitigate the downside pressure through the bottom of cycles.

謝謝，亞當，大家下午好，晚上好。感謝您加入我們的電話。首先，我想承認我們認識到我們無法完全擺脫週期性、全卡車運輸行業，但我們多年來一直有意採取措施，以最大限度地提高我們在周期每個階段的績效。這包括卡車收購、技術開發和業務戰略，以在經濟繁榮時期為我們的客戶創造最大價值，並使我們的收入來源多樣化，以減輕週期底部的下行壓力。

When looking at cycles over the last decade, we've performed with higher highs and higher lows in each sequential cycle, and we are on pace to do that again this cycle and are already preparing for increasing the high of the next cycle. LTL, or less than truckload, dedicated and an appropriate strategy of moving away from the spot market well in advance of the downward truckload rate pressure have been major factors in our business continuing to perform in the mid-80s operating ratio range during this current challenging freight market.

在回顧過去十年的周期時，我們在每個連續週期中都表現出更高的高點和更高的低點，我們正準備在這個週期中再次這樣做，並且已經在準備增加下一個週期的高點。 LTL，或低於卡車裝載量，專門和適當的策略，在卡車裝載率下降壓力之前遠離現貨市場，是我們業務在當前充滿挑戰的情況下繼續保持在 80 年代中期運營比率範圍內的主要因素貨運市場。

The most recent strong cycle experienced in 2021 enabled the cash flow to make the strategic investments in LTL in large part to prepare us for the bottom of the cycle, which is where we find ourselves now. We expect the recently announced acquisition of U.S. Xpress to be one of the factors that enabled us to achieve yet again another higher high in the strengthening phase as supply attrition makes way for a correction. We have modified our 2023 earnings per share guidance, and we'll provide details later in this call on how that change was calculated.

最近在 2021 年經歷的強勁週期使現金流能夠對 LTL 進行戰略投資，這在很大程度上是為了讓我們為周期的底部做好準備，這就是我們現在所處的位置。我們預計最近宣布的對美國 Xpress 的收購將成為使我們能夠在加強階段再次達到另一個更高高點的因素之一，因為供應減少為修正讓路。我們已經修改了 2023 年每股收益指引，我們將在本次電話會議稍後提供有關如何計算該變化的詳細信息。

As we near the trough of this current cycle, our revised earnings guidance below $4 per share is still significantly higher than the previous cycle trough experienced in the first quarter of 2020.

當我們接近當前週期的低谷時，我們修訂後的每股收益指引低於 4 美元，仍遠高於 2020 年第一季度經歷的上一個週期低谷。

Now I'll turn it back to Adam for Slide 3.

現在我將把它轉回幻燈片 3 的 Adam。

Thank you, Dave. So as we move to Slide 3, we compare our consolidated first quarter revenue and earnings results on a year-over-year basis. Revenue, excluding fuel surcharge, declined by 12%, while our adjusted operating income declined by 48.9%. GAAP earnings per diluted share for the first quarter of 2023 were $0.64, and our adjusted EPS came in at $0.73.

謝謝你，戴夫。因此，當我們轉到幻燈片 3 時，我們將第一季度的綜合收入和收益結果與去年同期進行比較。不包括燃油附加費的收入下降了 12%，而我們調整後的營業收入下降了 48.9%。 2023 年第一季度的 GAAP 每股攤薄收益為 0.64 美元，我們調整後的每股收益為 0.73 美元。

These results were negatively impacted by an $8.5 million pretax or $0.04 per diluted share expense within our Truckload segment for the development of certain large prior year insurance claims, the majority of which arose from an unfavorable jury verdict during the quarter and in addition to a $22.8 million operating loss or $0.11 per diluted share in our third-party insurance business within the nonreportable segments, primarily result -- as a result of increased frequency and unfavorable claim development during the quarter and premium collection issues associated with small carriers.

這些結果受到 Truckload 部門 850 萬美元的稅前費用或 0.04 美元的攤薄後每股費用的負面影響，這些費用用於開發某些大型的上一年保險索賠，其中大部分來自本季度不利的陪審團裁決，此外還有 22.8 美元的費用我們在非報告部門內的第三方保險業務的營業虧損或每股攤薄收益 0.11 美元，主要是由於本季度頻率增加和不利的索賠發展以及與小型承運人相關的保費收取問題。

On a year-over-year basis, softer freight demand, lower spot rates and contract pricing that declined throughout the quarter negatively impacted earnings.

與去年同期相比，貨運需求疲軟、即期運價下降以及整個季度下降的合同定價對收益產生了負面影響。

Now let's move to Slide 4. As it illustrates the revenue and adjusted operating income for each of our segments. Despite a first quarter impacted by consistently low import volumes, weather challenges and a lack of a typical seasonal uplift in March, our largest segments navigated the soft environment and pricing pressures well. Our Truckload and LTL segments operated in the mid-80s, while Logistics produced 90.4% adjusted operating ratio.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 4。因為它說明了我們每個部門的收入和調整後的營業收入。儘管第一季度受到持續低迷的進口量、天氣挑戰和 3 月份缺乏典型的季節性增長的影響，但我們最大的部門很好地應對了疲軟的環境和定價壓力。我們的卡車和 LTL 部門在 80 年代中期運營，而物流產生了 90.4% 的調整後運營率。

Intermodal was largely steady with a 95.4% adjusted operating ratio while growing volumes. Freight demand in the first quarter was below expectations and more persistently soft than typical seasonal patterns. Weak demand, pressured volumes and pricing, while ongoing inflation was a further headwind on operating income. Various public spot rate indicators had already fallen 30% to 40% year-over-year by the beginning of the quarter and the persistent softness drove spot rates even lower by the end of the quarter.

多式聯運基本穩定，調整後的運營率為 95.4%，同時運量也在增長。第一季度的貨運需求低於預期，並且比典型的季節性模式更持續疲軟。需求疲軟、銷量和定價承壓，而持續的通貨膨脹進一步阻礙了營業收入。截至本季度初，各種公開即期匯率指標已同比下降 30% 至 40%，持續疲軟導致即期匯率在本季度末甚至更低。

This also serves to put more pressure on contract pricing throughout the bid season. The chart on the right highlights the percentage of revenue during the first quarter of 2023 for each of our 4 segments as well as the percentage of revenue from our other services, which include our third-party carrier services, equipment leasing and warehousing services. We remain focused on service to our customers, reducing costs and positioning our business for the eventual improvement in demand as we navigate the current operating environment.

這也有助於在整個投標季節對合同定價施加更大壓力。右圖突出顯示了 2023 年第一季度我們 4 個部門中每個部門的收入百分比，以及我們其他服務的收入百分比，其中包括我們的第三方承運人服務、設備租賃和倉儲服務。在當前的運營環境中，我們仍然專注於為客戶提供服務，降低成本並定位我們的業務以最終改善需求。

We continue to work on diversifying our business and developing complementary services that bring strategic value to our customers and partner carriers. The next few slides will discuss each segment's performance, starting with Truckload on Slide 5. On a year-over-year basis, our Truckload revenue, excluding fuel surcharge, declined 8%, while our operating income declined 43.5%, reflecting the comparison of an unusually weak first quarter of 2023 against the first quarter of 2022, which was the last quarter to enjoy a combination of solid demand, strong and rising contract pricing and a largely stable spot environment.

我們繼續致力於實現業務多元化並開發互補服務，為我們的客戶和合作夥伴運營商帶來戰略價值。接下來的幾張幻燈片將討論每個細分市場的表現，從幻燈片 5 的 Truckload 開始。與去年同期相比，我們的 Truckload 收入（不包括燃油附加費）下降了 8%，而我們的營業收入下降了 43.5%，反映了與與 2022 年第一季度相比，2023 年第一季度異常疲軟，這是最後一個享受強勁需求、強勁且不斷上漲的合同定價以及基本穩定的現貨環境的季度。

With contractual freight tenders coming in below forecasted levels, we had to divert some freight from the Logistics business to the asset fleet and pick up more ad hoc business as well, which served to put more pressure on the overall revenue per mile than expected. Our Truckload business navigated the softness well and operated with an 86.6% adjusted operating ratio as a result of cost control and strong operational execution.

由於合同貨運招標低於預期水平，我們不得不將部分貨運從物流業務轉移到資產車隊，並開展更多臨時業務，這給每英里的總收入帶來了比預期更大的壓力。由於成本控制和強大的運營執行力，我們的卡車業務很好地度過了疲軟時期，並以 86.6% 的調整後運營率運營。

During the quarter, revenue per tractor fell 9%, driven by a 5.3% decrease in revenue per loaded mile and a 2.7% decrease in miles per tractor. The decline in revenue per tractor, combined with inflationary pressures, caused the reduction in Truckload operating income. We continue to take steps to align our cost structure with the reduction in volumes, and our cost per mile was essentially flat on a sequential basis. Having a diverse group of brands and services, including roughly 4,600 dedicated trucks, provides us with flexibility and strategy. For example, as the over-the-road truckload volumes have softened year-over-year, our dedicated business has grown top line revenue and improved margins on a year-over-year basis.

本季度，每台拖拉機的收入下降了 9%，原因是每裝載英里的收入下降了 5.3%，每台拖拉機的英里數下降了 2.7%。每台拖拉機收入的下降，加上通貨膨脹壓力，導致 Truckload 營業收入減少。我們繼續採取措施使我們的成本結構與數量的減少保持一致，並且我們的每英里成本在連續的基礎上基本持平。擁有多元化的品牌和服務，包括大約 4,600 輛專用卡車，為我們提供了靈活性和戰略。例如，隨著公路卡車運輸量同比下降，我們的專業業務收入同比增長，利潤率也有所提高。

Now on to Slide 6. Our LTL segment continues to perform well and makes progress on yield and network initiatives, which allowed this business to essentially hold revenue, operating income and margin flat, despite the softer volume environment.

現在轉到幻燈片 6。我們的 LTL 部門繼續表現良好，並在收益和網絡計劃方面取得進展，這使該業務基本上保持收入、營業收入和利潤率持平，儘管銷量環境疲軟。

For the quarter, revenue excluding fuel surcharge was $214 million, and we operated at an 85.7% adjusted operating ratio. Pricing remains solid as revenue excluding fuel surcharge per hundredweight increased 8.7% year-over-year. Shipments per day were down 5.7% year-over-year, but did show stabilization exiting the quarter into April. The map shows the ACT and MME terminal networks and indicates new locations since the acquisition in 2021 as well as the planned locations in the near future. Filling out a super-regional network in the short term and creating a national network in the long term will allow us to participate in more freight and enable us to find opportunities to further support our existing Truckload customers with LTL capacity.

本季度，不包括燃油附加費的收入為 2.14 億美元，我們的調整後運營率為 85.7%。由於不包括每英擔燃油附加費的收入同比增長 8.7%，因此定價仍然穩健。每天的出貨量同比下降 5.7%，但從本季度到 4 月份確實顯示出穩定。該地圖顯示了 ACT 和 MME 終端網絡，並指出了自 2021 年收購以來的新位置以及近期計劃的位置。在短期內填補一個超區域網絡，在長期內創建一個全國性網絡，將使我們能夠參與更多的貨運，並使我們能夠找到機會進一步支持我們現有的具有 LTL 能力的 Truckload 客戶。

Now on to Slide 7. Our Logistics segment navigated an extremely soft freight environment to perform with an adjusted operating ratio of 90.4%, which was 470 basis point worse than the first quarter of the prior year. Gross margins remained stable year-over-year at 19.8% in the quarter. Overall revenue was down 51.2%, driven by a 36.4% decrease in revenue per load from lower spot market rates and a decrease in load count of 23.2%.

現在轉到幻燈片 7。我們的物流部門在極其疲軟的貨運環境中表現出色，調整後的運營率為 90.4%，比去年第一季度低 470 個基點。本季度毛利率同比保持穩定在 19.8%。整體收入下降了 51.2%，這是由於較低的現貨市場費率導致每負載收入下降了 36.4%，負載數量減少了 23.2%。

Load volumes continued to be negatively impacted by lower import volumes, particularly out of the West Coast ports. Despite the challenges in the market, our Logistics business remains disciplined and nimble and maintained near double-digit margins. This business also continues to support our Truckload segment in certain markets where we need additional freight to support our drivers, which put additional pressure on Logistics volumes, particularly power-only.

裝載量繼續受到進口量下降的負面影響，尤其是西海岸港口的進口量下降。儘管市場面臨挑戰，我們的物流業務仍然保持紀律和靈活，並保持接近兩位數的利潤率。該業務還繼續支持我們在某些市場的卡車運輸部門，在這些市場中，我們需要額外的貨運來支持我們的司機，這給物流量帶來了額外的壓力，尤其是純電力。

Logistics has been a great complement to our asset-based businesses. Customer behavior has exhibited a strong preference for the power-only value proposition over the past few years, and we expect this service will be an outsized beneficiary once demand recovers. Our industry-leading trailer network allows our customers the ability to optimize their own warehouse space and labor costs. Third-party carriers preferred power-only because it saves them hours at each load and unload location, lowers their capital investment and risk, reduces their operating costs and gives them access to freight they historically wouldn't be able to participate in.

物流一直是我們基於資產的業務的重要補充。在過去的幾年裡，客戶行為表現出對純電力價值主張的強烈偏好，我們預計一旦需求恢復，這項服務將成為一個巨大的受益者。我們行業領先的拖車網絡使我們的客戶能夠優化自己的倉庫空間和勞動力成本。第三方承運人更喜歡純電力，因為它可以節省他們在每個裝卸地點的時間，降低他們的資本投資和風險，降低他們的運營成本，並讓他們能夠獲得他們過去無法參與的貨運。

On the right of the slide, we've shown an actual snapshot of our trailer locations at a point in time to illustrate the extensive coverage we have throughout the supply chain network. This network of 79,000 trailers provides us the ability to respond with distinctive scale in both our Truckload and Logistics segments to our customers' needs. We continue to be excited about this business and have several technology initiatives ongoing that will improve the experience for our third-party carriers as well as provide more seamless information internally and to our customers that will lead to more opportunities to better utilize our equipment.

在幻燈片的右側，我們展示了某個時間點拖車位置的實際快照，以說明我們在整個供應鍊網絡中的廣泛覆蓋範圍。這個由 79,000 輛拖車組成的網絡使我們能夠在卡車裝載和物流領域以獨特的規模響應客戶的需求。我們繼續對這項業務感到興奮，並正在進行多項技術計劃，這些計劃將改善我們第三方運營商的體驗，並在內部和我們的客戶提供更多無縫信息，從而帶來更多機會更好地利用我們的設備。

I'll now touch on Intermodal on Slide 8 before turning the call over to Dave. Revenue increased 1.3%, driven by an 8.5% increase in load count, partially offset by a 6.7% decrease in revenue per load. In addition to the well-known rail service challenges, Intermodal volumes in general are being pressured by the soft freight environment and the current competitive position of the truckload alternative. Customers are leveraging the low spot rates, quicker transit times and better service in the truckload market.

在將電話轉給 Dave 之前，我現在將在幻燈片 8 上談談聯運。收入增長 1.3%，受載客量增長 8.5% 的推動，但部分被每次載客收入下降 6.7% 所抵消。除了眾所周知的鐵路服務挑戰外，聯運運輸量總體上還受到疲軟的貨運環境和卡車運輸替代方案當前競爭地位的壓力。客戶正在利用卡車運輸市場的低即期匯率、更快的運輸時間和更好的服務。

That being said, we are encouraged to see sequential and year-over-year growth in our volumes as well as bid activity yielding promising new volume awards. In addition, the improved hiring success in our drayage fleet is enabling us to internalize more drayage moves, allowing more efficient utilization of our equipment and lower costs.

話雖如此，我們很高興看到我們的數量連續和同比增長，以及投標活動產生有希望的新數量獎勵。此外，我們拖運船隊招聘成功率的提高使我們能夠內部化更多拖運作業，從而更有效地利用我們的設備並降低成本。

While rail service has been improving, Intermodal shippers need to see better service consistently to allow further opportunities for more freight. Labor within the rail network appears to be improving, which should help close the service gap between Intermodal and Truckload and support future growth for this business.

雖然鐵路服務一直在改善，但多式聯運托運人需要始終如一地看到更好的服務，以便為更多貨運提供更多機會。鐵路網絡內的勞動力似乎正在改善，這應該有助於縮小多式聯運和貨車之間的服務差距，並支持該業務的未來增長。

I'll now turn the call over to Dave.

我現在將電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks. Slide 9 illustrates our nonreportable segment, which includes insurance, maintenance and equipment sales and rentals under the Iron Truck Services brand as well as equipment leasing and warehousing activities. For the quarter, revenue grew 20.7% year-over-year to $142 million, though operating income was a loss of $15.6 million, a $27 million reduction from the prior year.

謝謝。幻燈片 9 說明了我們的非報告部分，其中包括 Iron Truck Services 品牌下的保險、維護和設備銷售和租賃，以及設備租賃和倉儲活動。本季度收入同比增長 20.7% 至 1.42 億美元，儘管營業收入虧損 1560 萬美元，比上年減少 2700 萬美元。

While our nonreportable segment has seen strong growth over the past few years, the past 2 quarters have seen a meaningful shift in the performance of our third-party carrier insurance business. This is primarily driven by a change in the risk profile of the small carriers we cover and their ability to pay insurance premiums. We believe the significant pressure put on their businesses by the unprecedented drop in spot pricing over the past year, combined with persistently high inflation, has had impacts on their businesses, which produced a higher risk than was originally underwritten.

雖然我們的非報告部門在過去幾年中增長強勁，但過去兩個季度我們的第三方承運人保險業務的表現發生了重大變化。這主要是由於我們覆蓋的小型承運人的風險狀況及其支付保險費的能力發生了變化。我們認為，過去一年現貨定價空前下跌以及持續高通脹給他們的業務帶來了巨大壓力，這對他們的業務產生了影響，產生了比最初承保更高的風險。

As a result, we have decided to temporarily reduce our exposure to this third-party carrier risk at this point in the cycle, effective with the start of the second quarter. This decision will be a headwind to growth for this segment, but we believe it is a prudent move for our business in an unusually difficult truck environment for small operators. Beyond this decision, we are already taking steps to enhance our insurance program, which include higher pricing, improved collections and more timely cancellations.

因此，我們決定在周期的此時暫時減少我們對第三方運營商風險的敞口，從第二季度開始生效。這一決定將阻礙這一細分市場的增長，但我們認為，在小型運營商面臨異常困難的卡車環境中，這對我們的業務來說是一項謹慎的舉措。除了這一決定之外，我們已經在採取措施加強我們的保險計劃，其中包括更高的定價、改進的收款和更及時的取消。

The other services in this segment continue to perform and are expected to drive modest revenue growth for the year and a return to positive operating income for the nonreportable segments later in the year, though the quarterly run rate will be roughly half of the previous level. We expect to continue growing the revenues and income from these other services over time and believe this effort supports our ongoing diversification objectives.

該部門的其他服務繼續表現良好，預計將推動今年收入適度增長，並在今年晚些時候為非報告部門恢復正營業收入，儘管季度運行率將約為之前水平的一半。我們希望隨著時間的推移繼續增加這些其他服務的收入和收入，並相信這一努力支持我們正在進行的多元化目標。

Now on to Slide 10. On March 21st, we announced the transaction to acquire U.S. Xpress. We expect this transaction to close early in the third quarter. We're excited for this opportunity and have been impressed with U.S. Xpress leadership's willingness to help U.S. Xpress achieve the 3-year milestones outlined in this slide. Specifically, within 3 years an upper 80s OR in the over-the-road truckload and dedicated businesses with an upper 80s to low 90s OR for brokerage. Total transportation, which is an independently operated truckload carrier in Jackson, Mississippi has already consistently been in the 80s, and we expect to assist them in getting to the low 80s or even better.

現在轉到幻燈片 10。3 月 21 日，我們宣布了收購 U.S. Xpress 的交易。我們預計該交易將在第三季度初完成。我們很高興有這個機會，並且對 U.S. Xpress 領導層幫助 U.S. Xpress 實現本幻燈片中概述的 3 年里程碑的意願印象深刻。具體來說，在 3 年內，80 多歲或從事公路卡車運輸，以及 80 多歲至 90 多歲或從事經紀業務的專門企業。 Total Transportation 是密西西比州傑克遜的一家獨立運營的卡車運輸公司，一直處於 80 年代，我們希望幫助他們達到 80 年代的低點甚至更好。

We have much work to do, but our confidence in achieving these goals has only increased since the announcement was made, and we've had the opportunity to engage with a broader group of U.S. Xpress employees and leaders. The incoming President and the incoming CFO of U.S. Xpress have many years of experience at Swift Transportation and were critical in the performance improvement achieved at Swift following the 2017 Knight-Swift merger. We expect to see meaningful earnings progress in 2024 from this $2 billion revenue truckload carrier.

我們還有很多工作要做，但自公告發布以來，我們實現這些目標的信心只增不減，而且我們有機會與更廣泛的 U.S. Xpress 員工和領導者接觸。 U.S. Xpress 即將上任的總裁和即將上任的首席財務官在 Swift Transportation 擁有多年經驗，並且在 2017 年 Knight-Swift 合併後 Swift 實現的績效提升方面發揮了關鍵作用。我們預計這家收入 20 億美元的卡車運輸公司將在 2024 年取得有意義的收益進展。

Now on to Slide 11. This slide contains our updated outlook on market conditions for 2023. Not much has changed since the last quarter other than we now anticipate a somewhat deeper pressure on revenue per mile before stabilizing and eventually improving and that inflection could be a little later than initially estimated. We still expect the current softness will persist through the first half of 2023 based on indications from shippers on working through their inventory overhang and with the cooler and wetter weather delaying the start of produce season.

現在轉到幻燈片 11。這張幻燈片包含我們對 2023 年市場狀況的最新展望。自上個季度以來沒有太大變化，只是我們現在預計在穩定並最終改善之前每英里收入的壓力會更大一些，並且拐點可能是比最初估計的晚一點。我們仍然預計目前的疲軟將持續到 2023 年上半年，這取決於托運人關於解決庫存過剩的跡象，以及涼爽和潮濕的天氣推遲了農產品季節的開始。

We now estimate that the average spot rates have fallen below operating costs for a large portion of the industry's carrier base. This soft environment and lower rate expectations, combined with ongoing inflation in equipment, maintenance and insurance, will increase the pressure on carriers, especially smaller and less well-capitalized carriers. Higher interest rates and tightening credit standards are also taking a toll. These factors should serve to accelerate the ongoing capacity attrition.

我們現在估計，平均即期費率已經低於該行業大部分運營商的運營成本。這種疲軟的環境和較低的利率預期，再加上設備、維護和保險方面的持續通脹，將增加承運人的壓力，尤其是規模較小、資本不足的承運人。更高的利率和收緊的信貸標準也造成了損失。這些因素應該有助於加速持續的產能消耗。

As the year progresses, demand should begin improving as shippers make further progress, reducing inventory levels and import volumes return to more normal levels. The combination of demand recovery and supply reduction should lead to an improving freight market conditions by the end of the third quarter.

隨著時間的推移，隨著托運人取得進一步進展，減少庫存水平和進口量恢復到更正常的水平，需求應該會開始改善。需求復蘇和供應減少相結合，應會在第三季度末改善貨運市場狀況。

I'll now turn it back to Adam to cover our 2023 revised guidance on Slide 12.

現在我將把它轉回 Adam，介紹我們在幻燈片 12 上修訂的 2023 年指南。

All right. Thank you, Dave. For the full year 2023, we now expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $3.35 to $3.55, which is updated from our original guidance of $4.05 to $4.25. We understand this is a significant change, so we plan to walk through the key drivers of this change. First, as I noted earlier, the persistent weakness in demand has created more pressure on pricing. As a result, we now anticipate that revenue per mile will decline high single digits for the year as compared to our original expectation of being down mid-single digits on this year.

好的。謝謝你，戴夫。對於 2023 年全年，我們現在預計調整後的每股收益將在 3.35 美元至 3.55 美元之間，這是從我們最初 4.05 美元至 4.25 美元的指導更新而來的。我們知道這是一個重大變化，因此我們計劃詳細介紹這一變化的主要驅動因素。首先，正如我之前指出的那樣，需求的持續疲軟給定價帶來了更大的壓力。因此，我們現在預計今年每英里收入將下降高個位數，而我們最初的預期是今年下降中等個位數。

We project that the path to this annual change includes the year-over-year decline reaching its worst at a high single to low double digits in Q2 before trending to be flat year-over-year in Q4. We still expect noncontract opportunities combined with some return of peak season volume to support this comparison in the fourth quarter. We still project dedicated rates to increase in the low single-digit rate for the year.

我們預計，實現這一年度變化的路徑包括在第二季度達到最嚴重的高單位數到低兩位數的同比下降，然後在第四季度趨於同比持平。我們仍然預計非合同機會與旺季銷量的一些回歸將支持第四季度的這一比較。我們仍然預計今年的專用費率將以低個位數的速度增長。

Second, growth in our revenue and operating income in our nonreportable segments will slow as a result of the challenges in our third-party insurance business and our strategic decision to reduce the underwritten risk during this difficult truck environment. What was initially projected to be a growing contribution to earnings from this segment is now to be projected to be roughly half the adjusted operating income it produced in 2022 before returning to growth in 2024.

其次，由於我們的第三方保險業務面臨挑戰以及我們在這種困難的卡車環境中降低承保風險的戰略決策，我們不可報告部門的收入和營業收入的增長將放緩。最初預計該部門對收益的貢獻將越來越大，現在預計將約為其 2022 年調整後營業收入的一半，然後在 2024 年恢復增長。

There are no meaningful changes in the other services within the nonreportable segments. And like we called out on the slide, this is approximately a $0.35 impact to our guidance from what we originally had posted to the update today. Third, in Logistics, we expect continued pressure on revenue per load to persist through the second quarter, which may impact margins -- both margins and revenue as compared to our original assumptions. Logistics OR should remain in the low 90s.

非報告分部內的其他服務沒有任何有意義的變化。就像我們在幻燈片上指出的那樣，從我們最初發布的內容到今天的更新，這對我們的指導產生了大約 0.35 美元的影響。第三，在物流方面，我們預計第二季度每負載收入的持續壓力將持續存在，這可能會影響利潤率——與我們最初的假設相比，利潤率和收入都會受到影響。物流 OR 應保持在 90 年代的低位。

And fourth, we are seeing better progress on operating costs than initially projected. Additionally, gains on sale are now expected to be in the range of $15 million to $20 million per quarter as compared to the initial guidance of $10 million to $15 million per quarter. The decline in secondary equipment prices seems to be slowing at a refresh rate of equipment remains behind -- as equipment remains behind historical pace and new equipment prices remain out of reach for many carriers supporting -- which is supporting the used equipment alternative.

第四，我們看到運營成本方面的進展比最初預計的要好。此外，與最初指導的每季度 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元相比，現在預計銷售收益將在每季度 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元之間。二次設備價格的下降似乎正在放緩，設備更新速度仍然落後——因為設備仍然落後於歷史步伐，而新設備價格對於許多支持的運營商來說仍然遙不可及——這支持了二手設備的替代。

Our other assumptions saw little change and are as follows. Our LTL segment is expected to see slight improvement in revenue with relatively stable margins. Truckload tractor count should remain sequentially stable throughout the year with miles per tractor reflecting positive year-over-year in the back half of the year. Intermodal revenue per load will deteriorate in the first half before improving sequentially during the back half.

我們的其他假設變化不大，如下所示。我們的 LTL 部門預計收入略有改善，利潤率相對穩定。卡車載重拖拉機數量全年應保持連續穩定，每輛拖拉機的英里數在今年下半年反映出同比增長。上半年每負荷多式聯運收入將惡化，然後在下半年依次改善。

For the full year, we expect the operating ratio to remain in the mid-90s. Inflationary pressure will decelerate as labor loosens and equipment availability improves, and still CapEx is still expected to be in that $640 million to $690 million range, and our tax rate is expected to be around 25%. The CapEx and the guidance does not include any of the results from U.S. Xpress. We will provide any update required or appropriate once we close that transaction.

對於全年，我們預計運營比率將保持在 90 年代中期。隨著勞動力放鬆和設備可用性提高，通脹壓力將減弱，資本支出預計仍將在 6.4 億美元至 6.9 億美元的範圍內，我們的稅率預計在 25% 左右。資本支出和指南不包括 U.S. Xpress 的任何結果。一旦我們關閉該交易，我們將提供任何需要或適當的更新。

So this now concludes our prepared remarks. JP will now open the line for questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。 JP 現在將打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz from UBS.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Tom Wadewitz。

I wanted to ask you about your thoughts on second quarter and how you think freight may progress? And then it's been a very unusual seasonal pattern, right, in terms of not seeing the pickup in March and, I guess, you're seeing nothing in April. So is there a catalyst for freight to improve within the quarter? And then, I guess, the contract rates, I don't know how much of the impact you saw in 1Q, but contract rates stepping down seemed like a sequential headwind.

我想問一下您對第二季度的看法以及您認為貨運可能會如何發展？然後這是一個非常不尋常的季節性模式，對，就 3 月份沒有看到回升而言，我想你在 4 月份什麼也看不到。那麼，運費在本季度內是否有改善的催化劑？然後，我想，合同利率，我不知道你在第一季度看到了多少影響，但合同利率下降似乎是一個連續的逆風。

So how would you think about Truckload OR in 2Q versus 1Q? Is that potentially under further pressure just given that lower contract rate impact? So just some thoughts around 2Q in Truck?

那麼您如何看待 Truckload OR 在 2Q 和 1Q 中的表現？鑑於較低的合同率影響，這是否可能面臨進一步的壓力？那麼關於 Truck 2Q 的一些想法？

Okay. Thanks, Tom. Maybe I'll take the first half of that question, maybe Adam can take that second half. As you noted and we mentioned, we did not see that normal March seasonal uptick like we've seen in virtually every other first quarter, and that's continued in April. And April never is a whole lot to be excited about, just given kind of where it falls in the calendar and the seasons. And that continues to be true this year. It appears that temperatures have been quite cool through the early part of the spring. And as temperatures begin to rise, we expect that, that will bring a little bit of a catalyst in the beverage season as that begins to pick up.

好的。謝謝，湯姆。也許我會回答這個問題的前半部分，也許 Adam 可以回答後半部分。正如您所指出的和我們提到的，我們沒有看到像我們幾乎每隔一個第一季度看到的那樣正常的 3 月季節性上升，而且這種情況在 4 月仍在繼續。四月從來都不是一件令人興奮的事情，只是考慮到它在日曆和季節中的位置。今年仍然如此。整個春季初期的氣溫似乎都相當涼爽。隨著氣溫開始上升，我們預計，這將在飲料季節開始回升時帶來一點催化劑。

We're -- from the indications that we hear, the wet season and throughout the first quarter will lead to a little later produce season. So I do think in the second quarter, we have the possibility of seeing that kind of seasonal uplift, which we -- which is too early to see in any typical second quarter, but we still could see that as we move deeper into May for beverage and probably closer to June on the produce.

我們 - 從我們聽到的跡象來看，雨季和整個第一季度將導致稍晚的生產季節。所以我確實認為在第二季度，我們有可能看到這種季節性的上升，我們 - 這在任何典型的第二季度都還為時過早，但隨著我們進入 5 月的更深階段，我們仍然可以看到這種情況飲料，可能更接近六月的產品。

That being said, the other key factor to watch is to start to see imports normalize a bit. Things in the Southeast have stayed a little bit busier over the port. I looked at a report just this morning, and Savannah has got about 10 ships out there and LA, Long Beach had 2. And so it's very rare that you would see Savannah have a -- multiple like that of ships at dock versus LA Long Beach. And so there are some indications that we're starting to see a pickup in some of the volumes that are about to make their way. The containers that are about to make their way over the ocean and come into the West Coast again.

話雖這麼說，另一個值得關注的關鍵因素是進口開始恢復正常。東南部的事情在港口上保持了一點繁忙。今天早上我看了一份報告，薩凡納有大約 10 艘船在那裡，洛杉磯，長灘有 2 艘。所以你很少會看到薩凡納有——像停靠在碼頭的船隻與洛杉磯長灘那樣多的船隻海灘。因此，有一些跡象表明，我們開始看到一些即將發行的數量有所增加。即將越過海洋再次進入西海岸的集裝箱。

And so this has been a -- I think it's been 20 years since we've seen such a prolonged deficit of imports on the West Coast. And so -- obviously, we have a fair amount of exposure in the West. And so we've had to navigate that already. It's hard to imagine that, that would -- that we would see a repeat and difficult on imports for a consecutive quarter in the second as we saw in the first. So that would be a positive sign to look at. Maybe you want to offer a comment on that based on...

所以這已經 - 我認為自從我們在西海岸看到如此長期的進口赤字以來已經有 20 年了。所以——顯然，我們在西方有相當多的曝光率。所以我們已經不得不導航了。很難想像，就像我們在第一個季度看到的那樣，我們會在第二個季度連續看到進口重複和困難。因此，這將是一個值得關注的積極信號。也許你想根據……發表評論

Sure. Sure. And I think just to dovetail off what Dave said, anecdotally from some of our larger customers, they feel in a much better position from an inventory standpoint. And so I think they expect their orders to ramp up just to replenish the inventories as they work through the overhang. That was really spring inventory that they got last year late. When we think about contract rates, we were through much more bids than we would typically be at this time as many of our customers were pulling that forward to try to, I think, get some concessions on rates before they normally would bid.

當然。當然。而且我認為只是為了與戴夫所說的相吻合，從我們的一些大客戶那里傳聞，他們從庫存的角度來看感覺處於更好的位置。所以我認為他們希望他們的訂單增加只是為了在他們解決過剩問題時補充庫存。那真的是他們去年晚些時候得到的春季庫存。當我們考慮合同費率時，我們的出價比平時多得多，因為我認為，我們的許多客戶都在努力爭取在他們通常出價之前獲得一些費率優惠。

And so I think we've felt a lot more of that pressure in the first quarter than we typically would in a normal bid season. But certainly, sequentially, we would expect to see more pressure on rate per mile and that would weigh on margins. So we are expecting operating margins in the Truckload business to fill some small pressure sequentially. And then from there, improving as we transition to the back half of the year in third and fourth quarter.

因此，我認為我們在第一季度感受到的壓力比通常在正常競標季節要大得多。但可以肯定的是，我們預計每英里的費率將面臨更大的壓力，這將對利潤率構成壓力。因此，我們預計 Truckload 業務的營業利潤率將依次填補一些小壓力。然後從那裡開始，隨著我們在第三和第四季度過渡到今年下半年而有所改善。

Your next question comes from the line of Jack Atkins from Stephens.

您的下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Jack Atkins。

So, I guess, two-part question, if I could. So Dave, I guess, as you sort of think about and Adam feel fear to chime in as well. But as you think about the potential for a market inflection or stabilization by the time we get to the fourth quarter, I guess, what's giving you the confidence to be able to make that call? We're certainly coming off of an extremely unusual last 2.5, 3 years. And I would just be kind of curious to kind of get you to flesh that out a bit.

所以，我想，如果可以的話，問題分為兩部分。所以戴夫，我猜，正如你所想的那樣，亞當也害怕插話。但是當你考慮到我們進入第四季度時市場可能會出現拐點或穩定時，我想，是什麼讓你有信心做出這樣的決定？我們肯定會結束過去 2.5、3 年極不尋常的時期。我只是有點好奇，想讓你充實一下。

I know it sounds like customers are maybe a little bit more optimistic, but I would just be curious if you could maybe talk a bit more about that. And then as it relates to the U.S. Xpress acquisition, I've been getting some questions from investors about how much potential revenue call there might need to be there as you guys implement the profit improvement strategy? So Dave, perhaps you could talk about what may need to happen there in terms of calling some revenue just like you did at Swift to be able to get to the profit targets that you're looking for there?

我知道聽起來客戶可能更樂觀了一點，但我很好奇你是否可以多談談這一點。然後，由於它與美國 Xpress 收購有關，我一直從投資者那裡得到一些問題，即當你們實施利潤改善戰略時，可能需要多少潛在收入電話？所以戴夫，也許你可以談談在調用一些收入方面可能需要發生什麼，就像你在 Swift 所做的那樣，才能達到你在那裡尋找的利潤目標？

Okay, Jack. We'll try and give you answers here. Appreciate the questions. I would say when we look at what gives us the confidence, when we look at the supply-demand equation, despite the fact that demand has been down, it tells us -- and things have still been -- and there's -- and it still continues to be weak, it tells us that we still have some more supply that needs to be worked through. But we think that we're nearing levels where you start to overcorrect how much supply has come out.

好的，傑克。我們會盡力在這裡給你答案。感謝這些問題。我想說的是，當我們審視是什麼給了我們信心時，當我們審視供需方程式時，儘管需求已經下降，但它告訴我們——而且情況仍然如此——而且還有——而且它仍然繼續疲軟，它告訴我們，我們還有更多的供應需要解決。但我們認為我們已經接近你開始過度修正已經出現的供應量的水平。

So if we look at it from a supply posture, there are just 3 key factors. There's what's going on with trucks. And we know that we're now a few years with the inability to produce enough trucks to maintain the refresh rate within the industry. And so as was noted, we're seeing life still in the used market because it's the most viable alternative to a new truck, and that really is not a legitimate viable alternative when you can't keep the refresh rate alone.

所以如果從供給的角度來看，關鍵的因素只有3個。卡車正在發生什麼。而且我們知道，我們現在已經有幾年無法生產足夠的卡車來維持行業內的更新率。正如所指出的那樣，我們看到二手市場仍然存在，因為它是新卡車最可行的替代品，當您不能單獨保持刷新率時，這確實不是一個合法可行的替代品。

And so it's -- given the challenges in supply chain to deliver the volume of trucks has also led to steep, steep price increases at a time when the rates will not -- won't support that. So the first of the three would be look at what's going on with trucks. We would not be surprised if we saw meaningful cancellations. It sure feels like that world has loosened up quite significantly and that typically would have a tendency to overcorrect. The second would be labor. There's indications that labor seemed to peak sometime last year and approximately 1/3 to maybe the early fourth quarter, but likely in the third quarter when you look at over-the-road employment.

因此，考慮到供應鏈中運送卡車數量的挑戰也導致在利率不會上漲的情況下價格急劇上漲，因此它不會支持這一點。因此，三項中的第一項是查看卡車的情況。如果我們看到有意義的取消，我們不會感到驚訝。確實感覺這個世界已經相當放鬆了，而且通常會有矯枉過正的傾向。第二個是勞動力。有跡象表明，勞動力似乎在去年某個時候達到頂峰，大約是第四季度初的 1/3，但很可能在第三季度，當你看公路就業時。

It feels like that's been slipping since. We have our own barometers that we look internally when we look at what it takes and how difficult it is to source leads and in particular, to higher experienced drivers. And so we have seen all the signs of labor shifting away from other businesses. And then we've experienced it with services, obviously, that we provide to third-party carriers, whether it be fuel discounts or insurance and then other relationships we have in our brokers. We definitely are seeing attrition.

感覺從那以後一直在下滑。我們有自己的晴雨表，當我們查看需要什麼以及尋找潛在客戶，特別是經驗豐富的司機的難度時，我們會在內部查看這些晴雨表。因此，我們已經看到勞動力從其他企業轉移的所有跡象。然後我們通過服務體驗了它，顯然，我們提供給第三方承運人，無論是燃油折扣還是保險，然後是我們在經紀人中的其他關係。我們肯定會看到人員流失。

We understand the economics of trucking. And when we look at where the rate -- spot rate environment is, it's not possible on many headhaul lanes to still be profitable and exceed your cost per mile. So we definitely see the attrition underway in labor and do not see a floor that comes into play to stop that.

我們了解卡車運輸的經濟性。當我們查看費率 - 即期費率環境時，許多頭程車道不可能仍然盈利並超過每英里成本。因此，我們肯定會看到分娩過程中正在發生的自然減員，但看不到可以阻止這種情況的最低限度。

And then the third would be, well, what's the buffer? In other words, what is the appetite for financing to allow small businesses, small carriers to be able to weather the storm to get access to funding to replace and replenish very old equipment with slightly newer equipment or to navigate negative cash flow situations?

然後第三個是，緩衝區是什麼？換句話說，為了讓小企業、小承運人能夠渡過難關獲得資金，用稍新的設備更換和補充非常舊的設備或應對負現金流情況，融資的意願如何？

And that is the kind of the third leg here, and that has been rather abrupt in terms of banks tightening up the credit there. So those 3 factors in previous cycles, when you have those 3 things going on, it just doesn't -- it's only a matter of time. And we are arguably into our fifth consecutive quarter of steeply negative spot rates with unrelenting inflationary costs. So we're going to need to see another quarter or 2 and see where we go.

這就是這裡的第三條腿，就銀行收緊那裡的信貸而言，這是相當突然的。所以之前週期中的這 3 個因素，當你有這 3 個事情發生時，它就不會發生——這只是時間問題。而且我們可以說是連續第五個季度出現急劇負的即期利率，並且通貨膨脹成本無情。所以我們需要再看一兩個季度，看看我們要去哪裡。

But the combination of another quarter or 2 where we don't have robust demand and the supply chains have been able to play a little bit of catch up, they all seem to be pointing to a time where there is -- there will eventually -- we expect in the fourth quarter, you'll have a more ordinary supply chain flow, and it will be met with significantly fewer trucks and drivers and trailers.

但是，再有一個或兩個季度，我們沒有強勁的需求，而供應鏈已經能夠發揮一點追趕作用，它們似乎都指向一個時間——最終會—— - 我們預計在第四季度，供應鏈流程將更加普通，卡車、司機和拖車將大大減少。

Now just my take on your second question about the revenue call at U.S. Xpress, it's hard to get overly specific until we've closed the deal. There's a lot of information, specifically customer rate, et cetera, related that we -- that we won't have access to until we close that likely early third quarter. But I would tell you that we are not going into this with any kind of expectation for a revenue call. That's not how we look at this. That would probably be the wrong way to look at it as well, given where we are timing-wise in the cycle let alone just the way we approach these kind of businesses.

現在只是我對你關於美國隨心收入電話的第二個問題的看法，在我們完成交易之前很難過於具體。有很多信息，特別是客戶率等，與我們相關 - 在我們關閉可能的第三季度初之前，我們無法訪問這些信息。但我會告訴你，我們不會對收入電話有任何期望。我們不是這樣看的。考慮到我們在周期中的時機選擇，更不用說我們處理這類業務的方式，這也可能是錯誤的看待方式。

Now I'm sensing that possibly that comment comes because after the 2000 -- September of 2017, Knight-Swift merger, we saw a decline in revenue primarily because of a reduction in the number of trucks over the road, but that was a different -- a very different scenario. That was a scenario where we had new drivers who were not subject to hair follicle drug testing. And so after closing that deal in the fall of '17, starting in January of '18, we began hair follicle drug testing, which disqualified a significant number of drivers, very similar to the number of trucks that ultimately came off the road in the first 18 months.

現在我感覺到可能會出現這種評論，因為在 2000 年 - 2017 年 9 月，Knight-Swift 合併之後，我們看到收入下降主要是因為道路上卡車數量的減少，但這是不同的——一個非常不同的場景。在這種情況下，我們有新司機沒有接受毛囊藥物測試。因此，在 17 年秋天完成該交易後，從 18 年 1 月開始，我們開始進行毛囊藥物測試，這使大量司機失去了資格，這與最終在公路上行駛的卡車數量非常相似前 18 個月。

We also had some independent contractor exposure in areas that we weren't comfortable with. And so the combination of reducing -- or, increasing safety standards while reducing risk in the independent contractor program and with the drivers hired, that was a very conscious decision we made about what was in the best interest long term of the safety and profitability of Swift. And that had more to do with that than it did somehow trying to call or trim revenue.

在我們不熟悉的領域，我們也有一些獨立承包商的風險敞口。因此，在降低獨立承包商計劃和僱用司機的風險的同時降低或提高安全標準的組合，這是我們做出的一個非常有意識的決定，從長遠來看，這對安全和盈利能力的最佳利益是什麼迅速。與此相比，這與它以某種方式試圖收回或削減收入的關係更大。

And we wish it wouldn't have been that way, but that's how that was. We weren't able to recruit drivers at a -- qualified drivers at a fast enough pace to replace those that were not qualified. Of course, over time by changing some of the sources and leads and things with the driver hiring, we've been able to address and deal with that issue. At U.S. Xpress, they have already adopted hair follicle drug testing. And so that bridge has already been crossed. They do not have the same kind of independent contractor exposure that was - that we previously had.

我們希望它不會是那樣的，但事實就是這樣。我們無法以足夠快的速度招募合格的司機來替換那些不合格的司機。當然，隨著時間的推移，通過改變一些來源和線索以及司機僱傭的事情，我們已經能夠解決和處理這個問題。在U.S. Xpress，他們已經採用了毛囊藥物檢測。所以那座橋已經被跨越了。他們沒有我們以前擁有的那種獨立承包商風險。

And so when you look at U.S. Xpress, what you have as a business, that is largely broken up into a few big pieces. You've got a very large dedicated piece, approximately $800 million, that's performing today in -- historically, if I look at previous times, based on their public filings, they were performing in the mid-90s. You've got an over the road piece, that's a very similar size, almost the same number of trucks, approximately $750 million. That's underperforming and hasn't been profitable.

因此，當您查看 U.S. Xpress 時，您所擁有的業務在很大程度上被分成了幾個大塊。你有一個非常大的專用作品，大約 8 億美元，今天正在表演 - 從歷史上看，如果我根據他們的公開文件回顧以前的時間，他們在 90 年代中期表演。你有一個公路項目，它的規模非常相似，卡車數量幾乎相同，大約 7.5 億美元。那是表現不佳並且沒有盈利。

And then you have a $300 million independent business in total transportation that was performing, what appears to be, largely in the upper -- mid- to upper 80s. And then our brokerage business, it's got a decent operating ratio in the mid-90s. And so really, you break all of that down. And we're not looking at this, Jack, is that there needs to be really any kind of revenue call. And so we'll work through those details after we close, but I wouldn't be budgeting for that.

然後你有一個價值 3 億美元的獨立業務，在整個運輸領域表現良好，看起來主要是在 80 年代的中上層。然後是我們的經紀業務，它在 90 年代中期的運營比率不錯。所以真的，你打破了所有這些。傑克，我們不是在看這個，是真的需要任何形式的收入電話。因此，我們將在關閉後處理這些細節，但我不會為此做預算。

Yes. And just to add to that, Jack, as Dave mentioned, the issue on the Swift side was more driver related than a conscious effort to cut back on any customer freight. And when I look at the U.S. Xpress opportunity, I mean there's a very large delta between the turnover at Knight-Swift and the U.S. Xpress turnover. And so for us to put some resources there and make some progress there, they already have a very good recruiting effort, I think, gives us some protection from losing some of the drivers that we saw during the Swift merger. So I think -- we feel confident that we won't be able to -- we won't see the same type of slip in revenue as you alluded to.

是的。 Jack，正如 Dave 提到的那樣，補充一點，Swift 方面的問題更多地與驅動程序相關，而不是有意識地努力減少任何客戶運費。當我看美國 Xpress 的機會時，我的意思是 Knight-Swift 的營業額與美國 Xpress 的營業額之間存在非常大的差異。因此，對於我們在那裡投入一些資源並在那裡取得一些進展，我認為他們已經進行了非常好的招聘工作，這為我們提供了一些保護，以免失去我們在 Swift 合併期間看到的一些驅動程序。所以我認為——我們有信心我們不會——我們不會看到你提到的那種類型的收入下滑。

Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

So maybe if I just take a step back a little bit, and Adam, I know you gave a bunch of details on the guidance in the second half and everything else. But just big picture, Dave, kind of when you told us a year ago that you thought the floor of earnings was $4. Obviously, you're in the mid-3s right now. Kind of what has changed? Has the cycle been more severe than you thought back then? Has the diversification not helped with the cyclicality of earnings enough, kind of what changed versus that initial view? And kind of what's your current view of where peak or normalized EPS is?

所以也許如果我退後一步，亞當，我知道你提供了關於下半場指導和其他一切的大量細節。但大局觀，戴夫，一年前你告訴我們你認為收入的底線是 4 美元。顯然，您現在處於 3 歲中期。發生了什麼變化？這個週期是否比你當時想像的更嚴重？多元化是否對收益的周期性沒有足夠的幫助，與最初的觀點相比發生了什麼變化？您目前對峰值或標準化 EPS 的看法是什麼？

Yes. Maybe I'll touch on that first, Ravi, and then Dave can add any additional color. So I think about the $4. Certainly, we were not expecting to see the results in the insurance business that began to show up in the fourth quarter and continued into the first quarter. And some of those would have been attributed to probably a more challenging environment where you have some smaller carriers that are probably pressed to run more miles to make up for lower rates and are challenged to make some of their payments on their insurance premiums.

是的。也許我會先談一下，Ravi，然後 Dave 可以添加任何其他顏色。所以我想到了 4 美元。當然，我們沒有預料到保險業務會在第四季度開始出現並持續到第一季度的結果。其中一些可能歸因於更具挑戰性的環境，在這種環境下，一些較小的承運人可能被迫跑更多里程以彌補較低的費率，並面臨支付部分保險費的挑戰。

We're feeling the impact of that as well as just some of the other compliance issues around the program that were a bit challenged of not having equipment available from a camera standpoint when we were in the heart of the pandemic and some of that equipment was not available because of supply chain constraints. And so we were trying to be flexible with some of these carriers and probably found that we had some adverse selection.

我們感受到了這一點的影響以及圍繞該計劃的其他一些合規性問題，這些問題在我們處於大流行的中心時從相機的角度來看沒有可用的設備而面臨一些挑戰，其中一些設備是由於供應鏈限制無法使用。因此，我們試圖對其中一些運營商保持靈活性，並且可能發現我們有一些逆向選擇。

So when we pivot the strategy to try to limit the downside on that business, I think, certainly, we're feeling the impact on our guidance, and I mentioned that's probably about half of the change in what we made from what we originally put out. So that was unexpected, not planned for. And then we think about the current environment today, we certainly weren't planning for imports to be at historic lows.

因此，當我們調整戰略以試圖限制該業務的負面影響時，我認為，當然，我們感受到了對我們指導的影響，我提到這可能是我們最初所做的改變的一半左右出去。所以這是出乎意料的，不是計劃好的。然後我們考慮今天的當前環境，我們當然沒有計劃讓進口量處於歷史低位。

When I think of 2021, we saw historic demand and some of that was just because of constrained capacity from a labor standpoint. We didn't quite know what the backside of that was going to be, and it's proven to be a lot more dramatic with the change. Now I think when we look about how we've always started to forecast this business, we probably never forecast how quickly it changes from declining as well as improving. And so when we look out to the back half of this year, we still have some optimism, but it's probably been pushed out a bit, given the current environment we're in. But hey, that could change more rapidly than we expect.

當我想到 2021 年時，我們看到了歷史性的需求，其中一些只是因為從勞動力的角度來看產能受限。我們不太清楚它的背後會是什麼，事實證明，隨著變化的發生，它會變得更加戲劇化。現在我認為，當我們回顧我們如何開始預測這項業務時，我們可能永遠不會預測它從下降到改善的變化速度。因此，當我們展望今年下半年時，我們仍然有一些樂觀情緒，但考慮到我們目前所處的環境，它可能會被推遲一些。但是，嘿，這可能比我們預期的變化更快。

Again, $4 was a number that we felt we had some confidence around, but hey, there's a few moving pieces we didn't account for. But as Dave mentioned in his opening remarks, and I look at the trough of earnings, assuming that the guidance holds up, it's still much higher than we were in previous cycles. And the businesses we did layer on LTL helped us get there as you see the stability in that business and growing logistics.

同樣，4 美元是一個我們覺得我們有一定信心的數字，但是，嘿，有一些我們沒有考慮到的變動因素。但正如戴夫在開場白中提到的那樣，我看到了收益的低谷，假設指導保持不變，它仍然比我們在之前的周期中高得多。當您看到該業務的穩定性和不斷增長的物流時，我們在 LTL 上所做的業務幫助我們實現了目標。

And, I think, the profitability coming from the Swift business relative to where we were when we first merged have all led to that higher trough number. And then we look out with what we expect to be able to do, the progress we'll make with U.S. Xpress will again reset that number higher, both the trough and the peak of earnings.

而且，我認為，相對於我們第一次合併時的情況，來自 Swift 業務的盈利能力都導致了更高的谷底數字。然後我們看看我們期望能夠做什麼，我們將在 U.S. Xpress 上取得的進展將再次重置這個數字，無論是收入的低谷還是高峰。

Yes. Well said, Adam. I -- Ravi, I would just add that a 67% decline in our Logistics operating income business for the first quarter, that was quite an adjustment. And for some of the reasons Adam mentioned, right, the decline in imports, which feeds much of the country from a full Truckload perspective. Clearly, our Logistics business helped support a little bit our asset-based business. I will tell you that to take a 51% decline in revenue and a 67% decline in op income in that business and yet still produce a 90.4% operating ratio is rather acrobatic.

是的。說得好，亞當。我——拉維，我只想補充說，第一季度我們的物流營業收入業務下降了 67%，這是一個相當大的調整。由於亞當提到的某些原因，正確的是，進口下降，從滿載卡車的角度來看，這為該國大部分地區提供了食物。顯然，我們的物流業務幫助支持了我們基於資產的業務。我會告訴你，該業務的收入下降了 51%，營業收入下降了 67%，但仍能產生 90.4% 的運營率，這是相當雜技的。

I mean I don't know that there are many businesses that could -- that can withstand that kind of top-line change and yet still be efficient to -- and nimble to move with the market, which they did. It's just they've lost some income. And, I think, that it's -- I can't emphasize enough that about 50% of that adjustment below the original guidance is tied to that insurance program. And so that's -- I would hate for people to lose that.

我的意思是，我不知道有多少企業可以——能夠承受這種頂線變化，但仍然高效——並且能夠靈活地與市場一起行動，他們做到了。只是他們失去了一些收入。而且，我認為，它 - 我不能足夠強調，低於原始指導的調整中約有 50% 與該保險計劃有關。所以這就是——我不希望人們失去它。

Now if you still were to go down to, call it, the midpoint of the new guidance, that still is going to put you more than 60% higher on an earnings per share basis than we were at the trough of the last cycle. And so we're trying to mitigate the cyclicality the best that we can. But more importantly, we're trying to make sure that as we go from cycle to cycle, the collar of the high and the low continued to increase. And surely, that is what we have seen happen now for the last few cycles.

現在，如果你仍然要下降到新指導的中點，那仍然會讓你的每股收益比我們在上一個週期的低谷時高出 60% 以上。因此，我們正在盡我們所能來減輕週期性。但更重要的是，我們正在努力確保隨著我們從一個週期到另一個週期，高點和低點的領子繼續增加。當然，這就是我們在過去幾個週期中看到的情況。

And we've been able to exacerbate that by making strategic acquisitions beginning with the Swift acquisition in 2017 announced in April of 2017, which was not exactly a great freight environment. But to be able to make these moves to further amplify and put our free cash flow to work to help us make sure that from cycle to cycle, we go in improving both the top and the bottom of the performance with our earnings per share. That is a key objective for us. And I think that hopefully, you would agree we're well on our way to set ourselves up to continue to do that for the next cycle.

我們已經能夠通過從 2017 年 4 月宣布的 2017 年 Swift 收購開始進行戰略收購來加劇這種情況，這並不是一個很好的貨運環境。但為了能夠採取這些措施進一步擴大我們的自由現金流，以幫助我們確保從一個週期到另一個週期，我們將通過每股收益來改善業績的頂部和底部。這是我們的一個關鍵目標。我認為，希望您會同意我們正在為下一個週期繼續這樣做做好準備。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Maybe talk a little bit about the outlook on bid season here. Obviously, we've got spot rates that have really rolled and surprisingly continue to roll downward, right? We're now into the $20s. It seems like that has historically been a trough. I don't know, maybe you can comment on your thoughts there and how the trends are going as we kind of move almost 2/3 through bid season here?

也許在這裡談談對投標季節的展望。顯然，我們的即期匯率確實已經滾動並且令人驚訝地繼續向下滾動，對嗎？我們現在進入了 20 美元。從歷史上看，這似乎是一個低谷。我不知道，也許你可以在那裡評論你的想法，以及趨勢如何發展，因為我們在這裡的投標季節幾乎移動了 2/3？

Okay, Ken, thank you. Yes, I think it does look a little bit like spot rates have maybe hit a floor there. Hard to think -- hard to think and imagine that they would have gone that far to begin with, but it seems rational that they would be bottomed where we see them kind of bouncing on the bottom based on certain indices. When we look at the bid season, I would say we've had somewhere between 2 and 3 years of Truckload rate increases with customers now looking to try and get some of that back. Now those rate increases that we've seen paled in comparison to ocean rates, for example, or some of what they've had to pay for warehousing or other components of the supply chain, but there clearly is an effort to get some of that back.

好的，肯，謝謝你。是的，我認為它看起來確實有點像即期匯率可能在那裡觸底。很難想像——很難想像和想像它們一開始會走那麼遠，但根據某些指數，它們會在我們看到它們在底部反彈的地方觸底似乎是合理的。當我們看投標季節時，我會說我們已經有 2 到 3 年的卡車裝載率增加，客戶現在希望嘗試收回一些。現在，與海運費率或他們必須為倉儲或供應鏈的其他組成部分支付的一些費用相比，我們看到的那些費率上漲相形見絀，但顯然正在努力獲得其中的一些後退。

Now there also has been an acknowledgment through the behavior of our customers that they recognize the value with the committed contractual business that usually involves trailer pools so that they have days to unload a trailer and not 2 hours to unload a trailer before they're penalized and take increasing cost. And so -- we think that, of course, that is a component of changing evolving regulation with ELDs and the kind of outsized value that you get with a nationwide trailer pool network, maybe to support that, if you were to go back and look at the gap between spot rates and contract rates from the 2014 peak to the 2016 trough, that spread between contract and spot was about $0.30.

現在，通過我們客戶的行為也承認，他們認識到通常涉及拖車池的承諾合同業務的價值，因此他們有幾天的時間來卸載拖車，而不是 2 小時來卸載拖車，然後他們就會受到處罰並增加成本。所以——我們認為，當然，這是改變 ELD 不斷發展的監管的一個組成部分，以及你通過全國拖車池網絡獲得的巨大價值，如果你回頭看看，也許可以支持這一點從 2014 年的峰值到 2016 年的低點，即期匯率和合同匯率之間的差距，合同和現貨之間的價差約為 0.30 美元。

And then if you look at the most recent previous cycle, which would have been 2018 until probably the first quarter of 2020, the peak spread there was $0.60. And of course, that's the first cycle since we've had electronic logs. So you see this double the spread, meaning a significant acknowledgment of the value that trailers can bring. Now if we look most recently, peak to trough on the spread with spot rates now somewhat moderating it looks like, that spread appears to be about $0.78. So somewhat similar, but even more exacerbated.

然後，如果你看看最近的上一個週期，可能是 2018 年到 2020 年第一季度，那裡的峰值價差為 0.60 美元。當然，這是我們擁有電子日誌以來的第一個週期。所以你看到這是雙倍的價差，這意味著對預告片可以帶來的價值的重要認可。現在，如果我們看看最近的情況，即期匯率從峰值到谷底的點差現在似乎有所緩和，該點差似乎約為 0.78 美元。所以有點相似，但更加惡化。

And so perhaps there's a little bit of an effort to try and get a little bit of that back by customers. We see that -- it's a fluid situation. And as Adam mentioned, we've been through a significant portion of those bids. We think as many as 70% of our bids have already flown through the network. And so that gives us a little bit of a visibility into what to expect as we see the year play out. And of course, the minute things tighten up, things begin to change and rates change rather quickly in that kind of an environment. So I hope that's helpful, Ken.

因此，也許需要付出一些努力來嘗試從客戶那裡得到一點回報。我們看到了——這是一個不穩定的情況。正如亞當所提到的，我們已經完成了這些投標的很大一部分。我們認為多達 70% 的出價已經通過網絡進行。因此，這讓我們對今年結束時的預期有了一些了解。當然，一旦事情收緊，事情就會開始發生變化，在那種環境下利率變化得相當快。所以我希望這對你有幫助，肯。

No, that's helpful. Yes, I think just given the speed of the spot, it's interesting to hear what you're seeing and how that's going to pan out. But I appreciate that historical look back.

不，那很有幫助。是的，我認為考慮到現場的速度，很有趣的是聽到你所看到的以及結果如何。但我很欣賞歷史回顧。

Your next question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

I was wondering if we could turn to LTL for a second. Maybe talk a little bit about sort of core price environment and the industry. I assume, it's generally holding up, maybe some color there. but also a little bit on the demand environment. Obviously, we've talked a lot about Truckload, but is the timing of things for LTL relatively comparable in terms of your expectations?

我想知道我們是否可以暫時轉向 LTL。也許談談核心價格環境和行業。我想，它通常會保持不變，也許那裡有一些顏色。也有點對環境的需求。顯然，我們已經就 Truckload 談了很多，但是零擔運輸的時機是否與您的預期具有可比性？

Yes, we're still new in this. Boy, it's so refreshing compared to what we see in the Truckload world. And so I think relative to where LTL has always been, there's seen some pressure on shipments. But as we noted, revenue per hundredweight was still up. It was positive, 8.7%. And first quarter is seasonally not a great quarter typically for LTL. So I feel very good about the 85.7% operating ratio.

是的，我們在這方面還是新手。男孩，與我們在 Truckload 世界中看到的相比，它是如此令人耳目一新。因此，我認為相對於 LTL 一直以來的情況，出貨量存在一些壓力。但正如我們所指出的，每英擔的收入仍在上升。這是積極的，8.7%。第一季度對於 LTL 來說通常不是一個很好的季度。所以我對85.7%的開工率感覺非常好。

From indications, April is off to a good start in LTL, which is not what I would -- not what we have alluded to already today in the full Truckload market. So we're seeing the resilience there. And we've got some difficult comps here for the next couple of quarters on year-over-year shipments, but we remain encouraged there. And I would say that business is performing probably most in line with what we would have expected for this year to answer your question, Jordan.

從跡象來看，4 月份在 LTL 方面開了個好頭，這不是我想要的——不是我們今天已經在完整的卡車市場上提到的。所以我們看到了那裡的彈性。對於接下來幾個季度的同比出貨量，我們在這裡有一些困難的比較，但我們在那裡仍然感到鼓舞。我想說，業務表現可能最符合我們今年對回答你的問題的預期，喬丹。

And I would just add, Jordan, we combined the AAA and MME networks on a single platform. We did that in the fourth quarter. And we've kind of worked through some challenges that have come from that, as you would expect with any type of integration. And probably by the end of the first quarter, we put most of that behind us. And so as we look towards the end of the first quarter and into the second quarter, we've seen some nice volume pickup, particularly in the MME network as a result of now being part of a larger network with the AAA Cooper Group.

我只想補充一點，喬丹，我們將 AAA 和 MME 網絡結合在一個平台上。我們在第四季度做到了這一點。正如您對任何類型的集成所期望的那樣，我們已經克服了由此帶來的一些挑戰。可能到第一季度末，我們將大部分時間拋在腦後。因此，當我們展望第一季度末和第二季度時，我們看到了一些不錯的銷量回升，特別是在 MME 網絡中，因為現在是 AAA Cooper Group 更大網絡的一部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee from Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Wetherbee。

It's [Rob] on for Chris. Could you give us a little bit more color in terms of the cost per mile outlook that you guys have provided? It sounds like gains on sales will be stepping up. Excluding the gains on sales, what are your thoughts with regard to inflation in the back half of the year? And alongside that, with the gains on sale, are these kind of sales that you guys are doing to the OEMs and you've got good line of sight or this is just based on your expectations of what you're seeing flow through the Knight stores what were you selling in retail?

[羅伯] 替克里斯發言。就你們提供的每英里成本前景而言，您能否給我們更多的顏色？聽起來銷售收益將會增加。排除銷售收益，您對下半年的通貨膨脹有何看法？除此之外，隨著銷售收益，你們正在向 OEM 進行這些銷售並且您有良好的視線，或者這只是基於您對通過 Knight 看到的內容的期望商店 你在零售店賣什麼？

Yes. So to hit on the gain on sale, the lion's share of these sales are going to be to third parties. And it does feel like some of the third parties because of where new equipment prices have grown to that -- I think their only option to improve the age of their fleet, which is certainly going to be older than our fleet or other large public companies, would be to access the used equipment market versus going to new equipment. And so I think we've seen prices hold better than we originally thought because of that dynamic.

是的。因此，為了獲得銷售收益，這些銷售的大部分將流向第三方。它確實感覺像一些第三方，因為新設備的價格已經上漲到這個水平——我認為他們唯一的選擇是改善他們的機隊年齡，這肯定會比我們的機隊或其他大型上市公司更老，將是進入二手設備市場而不是進入新設備。因此，我認為由於這種動態，我們已經看到價格比我們原先想像的要好。

And so we trade very little now because we have a pretty good sales force and a network to dispose of the equipment. And so that's what's led us to improve the guidance around gain on sale. Now absent gain on sale, I think we're still making progress in several areas. Now, hey, it's not easy. I think there's certain vendors who took pricing up quite a bit during the pandemic that were going back to because some of their raw goods prices have come up, their commodities have come up, and we're seeing some concessions. Now it's slow, but we're -- we have quite a bit of purchasing power.

因此，我們現在的交易很少，因為我們擁有一支非常優秀的銷售隊伍和一個處理設備的網絡。因此，這就是導致我們改進有關銷售收益的指導的原因。現在沒有銷售收益，我認為我們仍在幾個領域取得進展。現在，嘿，這並不容易。我認為有些供應商在大流行病期間將價格提高了很多，因為他們的一些原材料價格上漲了，他們的商品價格上漲了，我們看到了一些讓步。現在它很慢，但我們 - 我們有相當多的購買力。

And so we'll probably get more than our fair share of discounts. And then, hey, when we think about when we do close the deal with U.S. Xpress, it probably gives us even more opportunity to help on the cost front for not only U.S. Xpress but then just to leverage that overall spend to get a better deal for all companies in bulk. And then you think about labor has loosened up some for the large carriers because there does seem to be a flight to quality from the small carriers who are failing or don't have the freight opportunities to come to the large carriers.

因此，我們可能會獲得比我們應得的折扣更多的折扣。然後，嘿，當我們考慮何時完成與 U.S. Xpress 的交易時，它可能會給我們更多的機會，不僅可以在 U.S. Xpress 的成本方面提供幫助，而且還可以利用總體支出來獲得更好的交易適用於所有公司。然後你會想到大型承運人的勞動力已經放鬆了一些，因為似乎確實有從失敗或沒有貨運機會來到大型承運人的小型承運人轉向質量。

And so that's meant we haven't had to do as much in terms of sign-on bonuses or other incentives. We're getting more experienced hires, so not as much training required as we did several years out. So getting some -- making some progress, some savings in that area. And then as we get into the back half of the year, if the market plays out like we expect and volume starts to pick up, we expect miles per tractor to improve on a year-over-year basis, which certainly helps cover your fixed cost and lowers your overall cost per mile. So not dramatic moves from where we are, but some small sequential improvement as we progress through the year.

因此，這意味著我們不必在簽約獎金或其他激勵措施方面做那麼多。我們正在招聘更有經驗的員工，因此不需要像幾年前那樣需要那麼多培訓。因此，在該領域取得一些進展，節省一些錢。然後，當我們進入下半年時，如果市場表現像我們預期的那樣並且銷量開始回升，我們預計每台拖拉機的英里數將同比提高，這肯定有助於支付您的固定費用成本並降低每英里的總成本。因此，我們所處的位置並不是戲劇性的變化，而是隨著我們在這一年中的進步而進行的一些小的連續改進。

Yes. And I would just add to that on the -- when you look at the miles piece, so if you -- for the back end, you'd see our cost per mile was up about 3.7% here in the first quarter. Now that was with miles down approximately 2.7%. And yet those miles have been down for some time, several consecutive quarters. And so -- and naturally in a market where it's more difficult to find loads and volumes are pressured, we're at a spot where there's a rather significant amount of operating -- pent-up operating leverage in the business, if we can improve that kind of productivity and what that can help us do with cost.

是的。我只想補充一點——當你看里程數時，所以如果你——對於後端，你會看到第一季度我們每英里的成本增長了約 3.7%。現在，英里數下降了約 2.7%。然而，這些英里數已經下降了一段時間，連續幾個季度。因此 - 自然而然地，在一個更難找到負載和體積壓力的市場中，我們處於一個有大量運營的地方 - 如果我們能夠改善業務中被壓抑的運營槓桿這種生產力以及可以幫助我們降低成本的事情。

Adam didn't mention this, but we are battling higher interest rate costs on a year-over-year basis when we compare as we move throughout the rest of the year. And so that's dropping earnings per share just a little bit as well. So there's been tremendous effort to keep that cost per mile apart and an increase that's just a low single digit. But there are ways and pent-up leverage that can really help us maximize the earnings and the cash flow that we can create in this business as we get through this toughest part of the cycle, hopefully, sooner than later.

亞當沒有提到這一點，但當我們在今年剩餘時間裡進行比較時，我們正在與同比更高的利率成本作鬥爭。因此，每股收益也略有下降。因此，人們付出了巨大的努力來保持每英里的成本，並且只增加了一個較低的個位數。但是，有一些方法和被壓抑的槓桿可以真正幫助我們在度過這個週期中最艱難的部分時，最大限度地提高我們可以在這項業務中創造的收益和現金流，希望越早越好。

Your next question comes from the line of Bascome Majors from Susquehanna.

您的下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors 系列。

Going back to the insurance business, can you walk us in a little more detail through some of the disappointments that you felt in the last couple of quarters between what came from credit risk and nonpayment versus underwriting, severity and frequency that just didn't meet your expectations? And as you look at it a little bit further, is that a business that can grow again or is something that's going to be deemphasized permanently given the experience over the last couple of quarters?

回到保險業務，您能否更詳細地介紹一下您在過去幾個季度中對信用風險和未付款與承保、嚴重程度和頻率不符合的情況感到失望你的期望？當你進一步觀察它時，這是一項可以再次增長的業務，還是根據過去幾個季度的經驗，將永久不再強調的業務？

Yes, those are good questions. We just have to recognize. This is a new business that has grown rather rapidly for us. The efforts that we have to mitigate risk over time have been a little bit challenged by the ability of some of these carriers to access technology and some things that they -- that the carriers had fully intended to do, but weren't necessarily always able to do because of supply chain challenges for certain technology components.

是的，這些都是很好的問題。我們只需要認清。這是一項對我們來說發展相當迅速的新業務。隨著時間的推移，我們為降低風險所做的努力受到了一些挑戰，因為其中一些承運人獲得技術的能力以及他們 - 承運人完全打算做的事情，但不一定總是能夠這樣做是因為某些技術組件的供應鏈挑戰。

I would say that the pale in the development on these kind of claims, it takes a bit of time. And so you don't necessarily know exactly how these play out when you're starting something from scratch and growing it rather rapidly. You don't always know quite how that's going to play out. And so it's played out for the last 2 quarters in an unfavorable way relative to what we would have expected from a claims perspective. And so we had been building quite a surplus itself based on the claims reserves up until these last couple of months.

我要說的是，在開發這些聲明時，需要一些時間。因此，當您從頭開始並迅速發展時，您不一定確切知道這些是如何發揮作用的。你並不總是很清楚結果會怎樣。因此，相對於我們從理賠角度所預期的情況，過去兩個季度的結果並不理想。因此，直到最近幾個月，我們一直在根據索賠準備金建立相當大的盈餘。

And then -- then you couple that with a very difficult operating environment where you have carriers that are finally to the point to where they're unable to pay their insurance premiums, which they recognize that means they're going to lose their coverage, which means they're going to lose their ability to haul loads, which further gives us conviction for how difficult the environment is and the likelihood of the continued supply, if not accelerated supply attrition.

然後 - 然後你將其與非常困難的運營環境相結合，你的承運人最終到了無法支付保險費的地步，他們認識到這意味著他們將失去承保範圍，這意味著他們將失去拖運貨物的能力，這進一步讓我們相信環境有多困難以及持續供應的可能性，如果不是加速供應消耗的話。

But that is now a more recent factor to play out. That was a bigger factor in the first quarter than it was in the fourth quarter. But I would say between the 2 quarters, obviously, a majority of that expense would be on that insurance and claims due to frequency and severity of the claims that we've experienced. And so as we noted in the release, you're talking about $0.11 in this quarter. And so hence, we've taken some actions to mitigate that.

但現在這是一個更近的因素。這是第一季度比第四季度更大的因素。但我要說的是，在這兩個季度之間，很明顯，由於我們所經歷的索賠的頻率和嚴重程度，大部分費用將用於保險和索賠。因此，正如我們在新聞稿中指出的那樣，您在本季度談論的是 0.11 美元。因此，我們採取了一些措施來緩解這種情況。

Now as for where do we go from here, there's a lot in the program that are performing well, that is a good return business for us. We operate somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 million miles a day, and we understand safety, we understand risk. And so we do think that there is a very viable business here and a very viable growth opportunity in this business.

現在至於我們從這裡走向何方，該計劃中有很多表現良好的地方，這對我們來說是一個很好的回報業務。我們每天在大約 400 萬英里附近的某個地方運營，我們了解安全，我們了解風險。所以我們確實認為這裡有一個非常可行的業務，並且在這個業務中有一個非常可行的增長機會。

There just are times where you want to take risk and there are times where perhaps you want to back away. This is the time where we want to back away. It also allows us just to catch up a little bit with the prolific growth that we've had in terms of systems and our ability to manage it and allow supply chains to catch up so that things can function the way that we intend for them to do.

只是有些時候你想冒險，有些時候你可能想退縮。這是我們想要後退的時候。它還使我們能夠稍微趕上我們在系統方面的多產增長以及我們管理它的能力，並允許供應鏈趕上，以便事情能夠按照我們為他們打算的方式運作做。

But long term, we do see this as a growth opportunity. So this pause and this slowing of growth, we view as temporary. So -- we appreciate your question, Bascome. And with that, it looks like we are out of time, JP. We'll turn it back to you to conclude everybody. We appreciate you joining our call.

但從長遠來看，我們確實認為這是一個增長機會。因此，我們認為這種暫停和增長放緩是暫時的。所以 - 我們感謝您的問題，Bascome。 JP，看來我們沒時間了。我們會把它轉回給你，讓大家總結一下。感謝您加入我們的電話會議。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。