Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc (KNX) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is JP, and I'll be your conference operator today. Welcome to the Knight-Swift Transportation Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Speakers from today's call will be Dave Jackson, President and CEO; Adam Miller, CFO.

下午好。我叫 JP，今天我將擔任您的會議接線員。歡迎來到 Knight-Swift Transportation 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天電話會議的發言人將是總裁兼首席執行官戴夫傑克遜；首席財務官亞當·米勒。

Mr. Miller, the meeting is now yours.

米勒先生，現在由您來開會。

Thanks, JP, and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. Today, we plan to discuss topics related to the results of the fourth quarter, provide an update on current market conditions and share our full year 2023 guidance. We have slides to accompany this call, which are posted on our investor website.

謝謝，JP，大家下午好，感謝您參加我們的 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天，我們計劃討論與第四季度業績相關的話題，提供當前市場狀況的最新信息並分享我們的 2023 年全年指引。我們有幻燈片隨此電話會議發佈在我們的投資者網站上。

Our call is scheduled to go until 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Following our commentary, we will answer questions related to these topics. (Operator Instructions) We will answer as many questions as time allows. If we're not able to get to your question due to time restrictions, you may call (602) 606-6349.

我們的通話定於下午 5:30 結束。東部時間。在我們的評論之後，我們將回答與這些主題相關的問題。 （操作員說明）我們將在時間允許的情況下回答盡可能多的問題。如果由於時間限制我們無法回答您的問題，您可以致電 (602) 606-6349。

To begin, I'll first refer you to the disclosure on Page 2 of the presentation and note the following. This conference call and presentation may contain forward-looking statements made by the company that involve risks, assumptions and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Investors are directed to the information contained in Item 1A Risk Factors or Part 1 of the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the United States SEC for a discussion of the risks that may affect the company's future operating results. Actual results may differ.

首先，我將首先向您介紹演示文稿第 2 頁上的披露，並註意以下內容。本次電話會議和演示文稿可能包含公司作出的涉及難以預測的風險、假設和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。投資者應參考公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格年度報告第 1A 項風險因素或第 1 部分中包含的信息，以討論可能影響公司未來經營業績的風險。實際結果可能有所不同。

And now on to Slide 3. this chart on Slide 3 compares our consolidated fourth quarter revenue and earnings results on a year-over-year basis. Revenue excluding fuel surcharge declined by 9.5%, while our adjusted operating income declined by 39.3%. GAAP earnings per diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2022 were $0.92, and our adjusted EPS came in at $1. These results included a $15.4 million pretax charge, which negatively impacted EPS by $0.07 for an actuarial insurance adjustment related to third-party carrier risk in our iron insurance business. On a year-over-year basis, lower volumes in the absence of a holiday peak season negatively impacted earnings.

現在轉到幻燈片 3。幻燈片 3 上的這張圖表比較了我們第四季度的綜合收入和收益結果。不包括燃油附加費的收入下降了 9.5%，而我們調整後的營業收入下降了 39.3%。 2022 年第四季度的 GAAP 每股攤薄收益為 0.92 美元，我們調整後的每股收益為 1 美元。這些結果包括 1,540 萬美元的稅前費用，這對我們的鐵保險業務中與第三方承運人風險相關的精算保險調整產生了 0.07 美元的負面影響。與去年同期相比，在沒有假期旺季的情況下銷量下降對收益產生了負面影響。

Now on to the next slide. Slide 4 illustrates the revenue and adjusted operating income for the fourth quarter and year-to-date periods in each of our segments. In an unusually soft fourth quarter, our largest segments proved their ability to operate efficiently. Our Truckload segment operated in the low 80s, while LTL and Logistics stayed in the mid-80s.

現在轉到下一張幻燈片。幻燈片 4 顯示了我們每個部門第四季度和年初至今的收入和調整後營業收入。在異常疲軟的第四季度，我們最大的部門證明了他們高效運營的能力。我們的卡車運輸部門在 80 年代低點運營，而 LTL 和物流則停留在 80 年代中期。

Our Intermodal was impacted by weaker demand as well as greater availability of truckload capacity at better service levels. Freight demand in the fourth quarter was well below typical seasonal patterns. While spot opportunities were very subdued and projects were infrequent as anticipated, general freight demand was softer than expected. We believe this was largely driven by the holiday goods pull-forward earlier in 2022, an existing inventory overhang dating back to last year where some products arrived too late for the season, and general caution around what retailers could expect from consumer demand. Weak demand pressured volumes and pricing, while ongoing inflation was a further headwind on operating income in most segments.

我們的多式聯運受到需求疲軟以及以更好的服務水平提供更大卡車運力的影響。第四季度的貨運需求遠低於典型的季節性模式。雖然現貨機會非常低迷，而且項目並不像預期的那樣頻繁，但一般貨運需求比預期的要疲軟。我們認需求疲軟給銷量和定價帶來壓力，而持續的通貨膨脹進一步阻礙了大多數部門的營業收入。

The chart on the right highlights the percentage of revenue during the fourth quarter of 2022 from each of our 4 segments as well as the percentage of revenue from our other services, which include our rapidly growing insurance, equipment maintenance, equipment leasing and warehousing services.

右圖突出顯示了 2022 年第四季度我們 4 個部門中每個部門的收入百分比，以及我們其他服務的收入百分比，其中包括我們快速增長的保險、設備維護、設備租賃和倉儲服務。

We are focused on improving service to our customers and reducing costs as we navigate a tough operating environment. We continue to work on diversifying our business and developing complementary services that bring strategic value to our customers and partner carriers.

在艱難的運營環境中，我們專注於改善對客戶的服務並降低成本。我們繼續致力於實現業務多元化並開發互補服務，為我們的客戶和合作夥伴運營商帶來戰略價值。

The next few slides will discuss each segment's operating performance, starting with Truckload on Slide 5. On a year-over-year basis, our Truckload revenue excluding fuel surcharge declined 7.2%, while our operating income declined by 36.5%, reflecting the comparison of an unusually weak fourth quarter of 2022 against perhaps the strongest fourth quarter we've ever experienced.

接下來的幾張幻燈片將討論每個細分市場的經營業績，從幻燈片 5 的 Truckload 開始。與去年同期相比，我們的 Truckload 收入（不包括燃油附加費）下降了 7.2%，而我們的營業收入下降了 36.5%，反映了與2022 年第四季度異常疲軟，而這或許是我們經歷過的最強勁的第四季度。

Our Truckload business navigated the softness well and operated with an 82.7% operating ratio. Our efforts to reduce spot exposure and secure more contractual committed freight since the beginning of 2022 helped us maintain an adjusted operating ratio in the low 80s. During the quarter, revenue per tractor fell 8.6% driven by a 3.9% decrease in revenue per loaded mile and a 4.5% decrease in miles per tractor.

我們的卡車業務很好地度過了疲軟期，並以 82.7% 的運營率運營。自 2022 年初以來，我們為減少現貨敞口和確保更多合同承諾運費所做的努力幫助我們將調整後的運營比率維持在 80 年代的低水平。本季度，每台拖拉機的收入下降 8.6%，原因是每裝載英里收入下降 3.9%，每輛拖拉機行駛里程下降 4.5%。

The decline in revenue per tractor, combined with inflationary pressures across our business, caused the reduction in Truckload operating income. Most notably, we see ongoing cost pressures in equipment, maintenance and insurance. We continue to take steps to align our cost structure with the reduction in volumes.

每台拖拉機收入的下降，加上我們業務的通貨膨脹壓力，導致 Truckload 營業收入減少。最值得注意的是，我們看到設備、維護和保險方面的持續成本壓力。我們繼續採取措施使我們的成本結構與數量減少保持一致。

Having a diverse group of brands and services, including nearly 5,000 dedicated trucks, provides us with flexibility and strategy. For example, as over-the-road truckload volumes have softened year-over-year, our dedicated business has grown top line revenue and improved margins on a year-over-year basis.

擁有多元化的品牌和服務，包括近 5,000 輛專用卡車，為我們提供了靈活性和戰略。例如，隨著公路卡車運輸量同比下降，我們的專業業務收入同比增長，利潤率也有所提高。

Despite the soft market, our customers still value trailer pool capacity at scale, and we see this expressed to both our Truckload and Logistics segments. We continue to invest in our already industry-leading trailer fleet, which grew sequentially to nearly 79,000 trailers. We believe our scale in trailers is a competitive advantage and provides our customers capabilities that are extremely difficult to replicate.

儘管市場疲軟，但我們的客戶仍然重視拖車池容量的規模，我們看到這體現在我們的卡車裝載和物流部門。我們繼續投資我們業已領先的拖車車隊，該車隊已連續增長至近 79,000 輛拖車。我們相信我們在拖車領域的規模是一種競爭優勢，並為我們的客戶提供了極難復制的能力。

Now on to Slide 6. Our LTL segment continues to perform well and make progress on yield and network initiatives. For the quarter, revenue excluding fuel surcharge was $204 million, and we operated at an 85.5% adjusted operating ratio. This represents a 480 basis point improvement from the fourth quarter last year and only a 100 basis point sequential degradation despite demand softening for more than a typical seasonal step down from the third to fourth quarter in LTL.

現在轉到幻燈片 6。我們的 LTL 部門繼續表現良好，並在收益和網絡計劃方面取得進展。本季度，不包括燃油附加費的收入為 2.04 億美元，我們的調整後運營率為 85.5%。這比去年第四季度提高了 480 個基點，儘管 LTL 從第三季度到第四季度的需求疲軟超過了典型的季節性下降，但環比僅下降了 100 個基點。

Pricing remained strong as revenue excluding fuel surcharge per hundredweight increased 13.3% year-over-year. The leadership at both AAA Cooper and MME were able to complete the system integration during the fourth quarter, less than 12 months since the acquisition of MME. This creates seamless connectivity for our customers while maintaining the culture and brands of each company. We believe this positions us to provide additional services to existing customers as well as create new customer relationships.

由於不包括每英擔燃油附加費的收入同比增長 13.3%，因此定價依然強勁。 AAA Cooper 和 MME 的領導層在第四季度完成了系統集成，距離收購 MME 不到 12 個月。這為我們的客戶創造了無縫連接，同時保持了每家公司的文化和品牌。我們相信，這使我們能夠為現有客戶提供額外服務並建立新的客戶關係。

Our Knight and Swift brands have deep relationships with large shippers who in many cases deal with larger LTL providers. Creating a super regional network in the short term and a national network in the long term will enable us to find opportunities to further support our existing truckload customers with LTL capacity.

我們的 Knight 和 Swift 品牌與大型托運人有著深厚的關係，這些托運人在許多情況下與更大的 LTL 供應商打交道。在短期內創建一個超級區域網絡，在長期內創建一個全國性網絡，這將使我們能夠找到機會進一步支持我們現有的具有 LTL 能力的卡車客戶。

Now we'll move to Slide 7. Our Logistics segment continues to perform well with an adjusted operating ratio of 86.4%. Gross margin also expanded to 22.1% in the quarter compared to 20.7% last year. Overall, revenue was down 42.2% driven by a 28.9% decrease in revenue per load from lower spot market rates and a decrease in load count of 18.6%. Load volumes were negatively impacted by lower import volumes, particularly over the West Coast ports.

現在我們轉到幻燈片 7。我們的物流部門繼續表現良好，調整後的運營率為 86.4%。本季度毛利率也從去年的 20.7% 擴大到 22.1%。總體而言，收入下降了 42.2%，這是由於較低的現貨市場費率導致每次負載收入下降了 28.9%，負載數量減少了 18.6%。裝載量受到進口量下降的負面影響，尤其是在西海岸港口。

Our customers continue to value the power-only services we provide, which resulted in our power-only volumes feeling less pressure than our traditional live load, live unload activity. Our vastly growing trailer network allows our customers the ability to optimize their warehouse space and labor costs. Third-party carriers prefer power-only business because it saves them hours and each load and unload location, lowers their capital investment and risk, reduces their operating costs and gives them access to freight that historically wouldn't be able to participate in.

我們的客戶繼續重視我們提供的純電力服務，這導致我們的純電力卷比我們傳統的帶電負載、帶電卸載活動感覺壓力更小。我們不斷發展的拖車網絡使我們的客戶能夠優化他們的倉庫空間和勞動力成本。第三方承運人更喜歡純電力業務，因為這可以節省他們的時間和每個裝卸地點，降低他們的資本投資和風險，降低他們的運營成本，並讓他們能夠獲得過去無法參與的貨運。

We continue to be excited about this business and have several technology initiatives ongoing that will improve the experience for our third-party carriers as well as provide more seamless information internally and to our customers that will lead to more opportunities to utilize our equipment.

我們繼續對這項業務感到興奮，並且正在進行多項技術計劃，這些計劃將改善我們第三方運營商的體驗，並在內部和我們的客戶提供更多無縫信息，從而帶來更多使用我們設備的機會。

I'll now touch on intermodal on Slide 8 before turning the call over to Dave. Revenue decreased to 8.6% driven by a 6.3% decrease in load count and a 2.5% decrease in revenue per load. Intermodal volumes are being pressured by the general freight environment and the current competitive position of the truckload alternative. Customers are leveraging the extremely low spot rates, quicker transit times and better service in the truckload market.

在將電話轉給 Dave 之前，我現在將在幻燈片 8 上討論多式聯運。由於負載數量減少 6.3% 和每負載收入減少 2.5%，收入下降至 8.6%。聯運量正受到一般貨運環境和卡車運輸替代方案當前競爭地位的壓力。客戶正在利用卡車市場極低的現貨價格、更快的運輸時間和更好的服務。

Labor within the rail network appears to be improving as we enter the first quarter, leading to improving transit times and more predictability for our customers. These improvements should help close the service gap between intermodal and Truckload and support future growth for this business.

隨著我們進入第一季度，鐵路網絡內的勞動力似乎正在改善，從而改善了運輸時間並為我們的客戶提供了更多的可預測性。這些改進應該有助於縮小多式聯運和貨車運輸之間的服務差距，並支持該業務的未來增長。

I'll now turn it over to Dave.

我現在將其交給戴夫。

Thank you, Adam, and good afternoon, everyone. Slide 9 illustrates the growth in our businesses that make up the nonreportable segment, which include insurance and maintenance under the Iron Truck Services brand as well as equipment leasing and warehousing activities.

謝謝亞當，大家下午好。幻燈片 9 說明了我們構成不可報告部分的業務的增長，其中包括 Iron Truck Services 品牌下的保險和維護以及設備租賃和倉儲活動。

For the full year of 2022, we reached $517 million in revenues, representing 69% year-over-year growth. For the quarter, we had a 32% increase in revenue year-over-year. As previously mentioned, the results of the other services were negatively impacted in the fourth quarter by an actuarial adjustment of $15.4 million pretax related to third-party carrier risk in the iron insurance business, which resulted in the $11.6 million operating loss for this segment.

2022 年全年，我們的收入達到 5.17 億美元，同比增長 69%。本季度，我們的收入同比增長 32%。如前所述，其他服務的業績在第四季度受到與鐵保險業務第三方承運人風險相關的 1540 萬美元稅前精算調整的負面影響，導致該部門的運營虧損 1160 萬美元。

We are already taking steps to enhance our insurance program, which include a recent conversion to a new platform that we expect will lead to improved collections and more timely cancellations. We've applied rate increases to various lines of coverage that will bring underwriting results in line with expectations.

我們已經在採取措施加強我們的保險計劃，其中包括最近轉換到一個新平台，我們預計這將帶來更好的收款和更及時的取消。我們已將費率提高應用於各種承保範圍，這將使承保結果符合預期。

These service offerings have found tremendous interest from small carriers, especially as we help them improve their cost structure. But later in 2022, we have observed the pressure of the weaker environment impacting these carriers as seen through their difficulties, paying insurance premiums and the practice of extending maintenance service intervals on their equipment. We expect to continue growing the revenues and income from these other services over time and believe this effort supports our ongoing diversification objective.

這些服務引起了小型運營商的極大興趣，尤其是當我們幫助他們改善成本結構時。但在 2022 年晚些時候，我們觀察到較弱環境的壓力影響了這些運營商，從他們的困難、支付保險費和延長設備維護服務間隔的做法中可以看出。我們希望隨著時間的推移繼續增加這些其他服務的收入和收入，並相信這一努力支持我們正在進行的多元化目標。

Next on to Slide 10. This slide illustrates the progress of the intentional changing of the composition of our business into an industrial growth company. The chart on the left shows the percentage of adjusted operating income from each of our segments and our other nonreportable services since the Knight and Swift merger in 2017.

接下來是幻燈片 10。這張幻燈片說明了我們有意將我們的業務組成轉變為一家工業成長型公司的進展情況。左圖顯示了自 2017 年 Knight 和 Swift 合併以來，我們每個部門和其他非報告服務的調整後營業收入百分比。

We're pleased to report meaningful contributions in earnings from each area. These diversification efforts are intended to make us a less volatile company and we expect will help us mitigate the downside through truckload freight cycles.

我們很高興地報告每個領域對收益的有意義貢獻。這些多元化努力旨在使我們成為一家波動性較小的公司，我們預計這將幫助我們減輕卡車貨運週期帶來的不利影響。

Our Truckload earnings now represent approximately 65% of consolidated earnings, which is a meaningful shift from where we were in 2017 following the merger. This reduction in the percentage of our earnings coming from Truckload has been achieved while we significantly improved our Truckload earnings from a 2017 full year combined pro forma Knight and Swift earnings of $319 million to $748 million for 2022.

我們的整車收入現在約佔綜合收入的 65%，與 2017 年合併後的情況相比，這是一個有意義的轉變。我們實現了來自 Truckload 的收入百分比的降低，同時我們顯著提高了 Truckload 收入，從 2017 年全年的 Knight 和 Swift 合併備考收入 3.19 億美元增加到 2022 年的 7.48 億美元。

The chart on the right shows our annual adjusted earnings per share since the merger. Our adjusted EPS has moved from $2.16 per share in the first 4 quarters following the merger to $5.03 per share in 2022.

右圖顯示了自合併以來我們的年度調整後每股收益。我們調整後的每股收益已從合併後前 4 個季度的每股 2.16 美元增至 2022 年的每股 5.03 美元。

Moving to Slide 11. Strong earnings have driven increases in our free cash flow since the Knight-Swift merger, reaching $819 million in 2022. Year-to-date, we've used cash to increase our dividend to shareholders by 20%, repurchased $300 million worth of shares and paid down $395 million in long-term debt and leases. Since the 2017 merger, we've invested $1.6 billion in acquisitions. Making acquisitions remains a high priority, and our strong cash flow generation and leverage ratio of less than 1.0 provide us with ample capacity for M&A opportunities.

轉到幻燈片 11。自 Knight-Swift 合併以來，強勁的收益推動我們的自由現金流增加，到 2022 年達到 8.19 億美元。年初至今，我們使用現金將回購給股東的股息增加了 20%價值 3 億美元的股票，並償還了 3.95 億美元的長期債務和租約。自 2017 年合併以來，我們已投資 16 億美元用於收購。進行收購仍然是重中之重，我們強勁的現金流產生和低於 1.0 的槓桿率為我們提供了充足的併購機會。

Our balance sheet is strong and we're well positioned to invest in organic growth, pursue acquisitions, purchase more shares, increase dividends and/or pay down debt. We are constantly evaluating market conditions to maximize our use of cash to create value for our shareholders.

我們的資產負債表強勁，我們有能力投資有機增長、進行收購、購買更多股票、增加股息和/或償還債務。我們不斷評估市場狀況，以最大限度地利用現金為股東創造價值。

On Slide 12, we demonstrate the return on net tangible assets, which remains a key measurement for us. In 2022, we achieved a 19.0% return on net tangible assets. Our goal is to improve this measurement by focusing on 3 key areas: growing our less asset-intensive businesses; two, acquiring and improving businesses; and three, expanding margins in our existing operations.

在幻燈片 12 上，我們展示了淨有形資產的回報率，這對我們來說仍然是一個關鍵的衡量標準。 2022 年，我們實現了 19.0% 的有形資產淨回報率。我們的目標是通過關注 3 個關鍵領域來改進這一衡量標準：發展我們的資產密集度較低的業務；二、收購和改善業務；第三，擴大我們現有業務的利潤率。

We've achieved synergies and improvement in every business we have acquired, be they warehousing asset-based truckload, less than truckload or truckload brokerage. We believe our focus in these 3 key objectives will leverage our core competencies in areas of opportunity that are unique to us and will allow us to continue to generate significant returns to our shareholders in the long run.

我們在收購的每項業務中都取得了協同效應和改進，無論是基於卡車的倉儲資產，還是卡車貨運或卡車經紀業務。我們相信，我們對這 3 個關鍵目標的關注將利用我們在我們獨有的機會領域的核心競爭力，並使我們能夠繼續為我們的股東帶來長期的可觀回報。

On Slide 13, we provide an outlook for market conditions as we begin 2023. We expect the current softness will persist through the first half of 2023 based on indications from shippers that are working through their inventory overhang. This soft environment combined with ongoing inflation in equipment, maintenance and insurance and rising interest rates will increase the pressure on carriers, especially smaller and less well-capitalized carriers. These factors will most likely accelerate capacity attrition in the coming quarters.

在幻燈片 13 中，我們提供了 2023 年伊始的市場狀況展望。我們預計當前的疲軟態勢將持續到 2023 年上半年，這是基於正在努力解決庫存過剩問題的托運人的跡象。這種軟環境加上設備、維護和保險的持續通貨膨脹以及利率上升將增加承運人的壓力，尤其是規模較小和資本不足的承運人。這些因素很可能會在未來幾個季度加速產能消耗。

I'll now turn it back to Adam to cover our 2023 guidance.

我現在將它轉回給亞當，以涵蓋我們的 2023 年指導。

Thanks, Dave. On to our last slide here, Slide 14. For the full year 2023, we expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $4.05 to $4.25. Last year, we expected the first half to be strong and then cool off in the second half, which is largely what happened. In 2023, we expect the opposite: more challenging environments in the first half before we start to see a recovery to a more typical freight demand, leading up to an improving Q4 peak season.

謝謝，戴夫。轉到我們的最後一張幻燈片，幻燈片 14。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計調整後的每股收益將在 4.05 美元至 4.25 美元之間。去年，我們預計上半年會強勁，然後在下半年降溫，這在很大程度上已經發生了。到 2023 年，我們預計情況恰恰相反：在我們開始看到更典型的貨運需求復甦之前，上半年的環境更具挑戰性，從而導致第四季度旺季有所改善。

Over-the-road truckload contract rates will be pressured with few noncontract opportunities until the latter half of the year. We expect these noncontract opportunities, combined with some return of peak season volume, to result in rates inflecting positive year-over-year in Q4. Overall Truckload revenue per mile should be down mid- to high single digits in Q1 and trending to be positive by low single digits in Q4.

直到今年下半年，由於非合同機會很少，公路卡車合同費率將受到壓力。我們預計這些非合同機會，再加上旺季銷量的一些回升，將導致第四季度的利率同比出現正增長。第一季度每英里卡車總載重收入應下降中高個位數，第四季度呈低個位數增長趨勢。

Dedicated rates should increase in the low single digits for the year. Truck count should remain sequentially stable throughout the year with miles per tractor reflecting positive year-over-year by the middle of the year. Our LTL segment is expected to see slight improvement in revenue with relatively stable margins.

今年的專用費率應該會以較低的個位數增長。卡車數量全年應保持連續穩定，到年中時每輛拖拉機的英里數同比呈正增長。我們的 LTL 部門預計收入略有改善，利潤率相對穩定。

Sequentially, Logistics revenue per load should drop in the first quarter before increasing sequentially throughout the year. We expect volumes to follow a similar trend. Gross margin will compress as the freight market picks up, pushing logistics OR to climb into the high 80s to low 90s.

因此，每件貨物的物流收入在第一季度應該會下降，然後全年會依次增加。我們預計銷量將遵循類似的趨勢。隨著貨運市場回暖，毛利率將壓縮，推動物流 OR 從 80 年代的高點攀升至 90 年代的低點。

Intermodal revenue per load in margin will deteriorate in the first half before improving again in the back half. For the full year, we expect the operating ratio to be in the mid-90s. Revenue and op income in our other services will increase driven primarily by improvement in rates and new customer growth in our insurance business and increased volumes in warehousing.

聯運每負荷收入的利潤率將在上半年惡化，然後在下半年再次改善。對於全年，我們預計運營比率將在 90 年代中期。我們其他服務的收入和營業收入將增加，這主要是由於我們保險業務的費率和新客戶增長以及倉儲量的增加。

Inflationary pressure will decelerate as labor loosens and equipment availability improves. Gains are expected to be in the range of $10 million to $15 million per quarter, and our CapEx is expected to be in the range of $640 million to $690 million, and our tax rate is expected to be around 25%. Interest expense is also projected to increase from where we were in the fourth quarter as rates continue to climb.

隨著勞動力放鬆和設備可用性提高，通脹壓力將下降。預計每季度收益在 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元之間，我們的資本支出預計在 6.4 億至 6.9 億美元之間，我們的稅率預計在 25% 左右。隨著利率繼續攀升，預計利息支出也將從我們第四季度的水平增加。

So that concludes our prepared remarks. And so JP, we will now open the line for questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。那麼 JP，我們現在將打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Jack Atkins from Stephens.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Jack Atkins。

so I guess maybe a 2-parter here. But Dave, I'd be curious if you could maybe comment a bit on the fourth quarter to first quarter seasonality given that the fourth quarter of 2022, to your point, was anything but peak. How would you sort of think about that trending sequentially? If you could kind of help us set our expectations there.

所以我想這裡可能有兩個人。但是戴夫，我很好奇你是否可以對第四季度到第一季度的季節性發表一些評論，因為在你看來，2022 年第四季度絕非高峰期。您如何看待這種趨勢？如果你能幫助我們設定我們的期望。

And then, I guess, just to kind of follow up on your comment about what your customers are telling you about the trends and trajectory of their businesses. Well, I guess, what's giving you the confidence to think that we're going to see a trough in sort of freight fundamentals in the first half of the year and that we can kind of build back in the second half? If you could just expand on those 2 items, I'd appreciate it.

然後，我想，只是跟進你對客戶告訴你的關於他們業務趨勢和軌蹟的評論。好吧，我想，是什麼讓你有信心認為我們將在今年上半年看到貨運基本面的低谷，而我們可以在下半年重建？如果您可以擴展這 2 個項目，我將不勝感激。

Okay. Thank you, Jack. Yes, I would say that from fourth to first, this is one where the step down is significantly lower than what we're used to. And I would say that the freight market continues to show signs of life here as we get -- as we go through January. And so typically, you would see quite a bit of seasonality in the fourth quarter, which then changes with the holiday in the rearview mirror moving into the first.

好的。謝謝你，傑克。是的，我會說從第四到第一，這是一個比我們習慣的下降幅度要低得多的地方。我要說的是，隨著一月份的到來，貨運市場繼續顯示出活躍的跡象。因此，通常情況下，您會在第四季度看到相當多的季節性，然後隨著後視鏡中的假期進入第一季度而發生變化。

We do expect first to be seasonably softer than the fourth, they always are. But there's a good chance that after we complete the first quarter, we'll look back, and this might have been the most benign change sequentially from the fourth to a first.

我們確實希望第一個比第四個季節性地更軟，它們總是如此。但很有可能在我們完成第一季度後，我們會回顧過去，這可能是從第四季度到第一季度最良性的變化。

I would say that some of what gives us some indications of how this will play out maybe from customers would be the fact that in the fourth quarter, so much of their holiday inventory had already arrived. Some of it has already arrived 10 or 11 months before. It kind of sat around. It just barely missed the holidays. So it seemed that by the time October started, the fourth quarter freight was already -- had already arrived and was largely in position.

我想說的是，一些讓我們知道這將如何發揮作用的跡象可能來自客戶，因為在第四季度，他們的大部分假期庫存已經到貨。其中一些已經在 10 或 11 個月前到達。它有點坐在那裡。它幾乎錯過了假期。因此，似乎到 10 月開始時，第四季度貨運已經 - 已經到達並且基本就位。

So that explanation made sense to us. And so naturally, our next question is, well, how long are you going to continue to have this inventory overhang. And the general consensus, almost unanimous from customers that have given us this kind of -- or given us feedback about their inventories, has been that by the time they get through the spring, things are caught up. And that makes sense. I mean it was -- freight was flowing rather normally by the time we got to summer of 2022. So throughout the summer, there wasn't the traditional delays on imports.

所以這個解釋對我們來說是有意義的。很自然地，我們的下一個問題是，您將繼續庫存過剩多長時間。普遍的共識是，當他們度過春天時，事情就會趕上來，這些客戶幾乎一致同意給我們這種 - 或者給我們關於他們的庫存的反饋。這是有道理的。我的意思是，到 2022 年夏天時，貨運已經相當正常了。所以整個夏天，進口都沒有傳統的延誤。

And so the import volumes definitely support the idea that this freight has already been here and came early. So what we expect is that through the first 2 quarters of this year, we'll see this softness as a result of freight that's already moved, and then we start to move back into a more normal cycle.

因此，進口量肯定支持這樣一種觀點，即運費已經到位並且來得早。因此，我們預計，在今年前兩個季度，我們將看到由於已經轉移的貨運而導致的這種疲軟，然後我們開始回到更正常的周期。

And consumers are hanging in there. And everybody has been trying to figure that out. It's pretty remarkable that we've had the kind of performance as an industry. Certainly for our company, it seems remarkable to have that kind of a performance in the fourth quarter that really didn't have the seasonal uplift. I think it tells us really -- or it's evidence of the lack of oversupply that came rushing in has normally happened in previous cycles.

消費者就在那裡。每個人都在努力弄清楚這一點。作為一個行業，我們有這樣的表現，這是非常了不起的。當然，對於我們公司而言，在第四季度實現這種真正沒有季節性提升的表現似乎很了不起。我認為它確實告訴了我們 - 或者它證明了在以前的周期中通常會出現供應過剩的情況。

We just didn't see that in '21 and in '22 or '20 either because most of '20 was really good. So in '20, '21 and the first half of '22 when we had still a very healthy environment, we just didn't see the oversupply. And so I think that's partly why you see our asset-based Truckload business put up an 82.7% operating ratio in a fourth quarter that is a year past peak. I mean the peak was fourth quarter of 2021. And so certainly, that wasn't because of demand, but I think it tells us how tight supply really is.

我們只是在 21 年、22 年或 20 年都沒有看到這一點，因為 20 年的大部分時間都非常好。所以在 20 年、21 年和 22 年上半年，當我們的環境仍然非常健康時，我們只是沒有看到供過於求。因此，我認為這就是為什麼你看到我們基於資產的 Truckload 業務在過去一年的第四季度達到 82.7% 的運營比率的部分原因。我的意思是高峰出現在 2021 年第四季度。當然，這不是因為需求，但我認為這告訴我們供應到底有多緊張。

So when you fast forward that, Jack, and you think that we're going to burn off this inventory, we'll be back to a normal goods flow -- our flow of goods come, call it, summer through the back half of the year without the expectation that there's incremental supply at it. In fact, we believe supply is leaving, has been leaving and will continue to leave over the next 2 quarters. That gives us confidence that we'll see a much different environment in the back half of 2023.

因此，當你快進時，傑克，你認為我們將消耗掉這些庫存，我們將恢復正常的貨物流動——我們的貨物流動來了，可以這麼說，夏天通過後半部分這一年沒有預期會有增量供應。事實上，我們認為供應正在離開，一直在離開，並將在接下來的兩個季度繼續離開。這讓我們相信，我們將在 2023 年下半年看到截然不同的環境。

Yes. And just to add to that, Jack, I mean just looking at historical data of how cycles have typically trended, it's unusual for rates to be down year-over-year for more than 4 quarters. I think that's what gives us confidence in looking at fourth quarter of this year where rates could inflect positive.

是的。補充一下，傑克，我的意思是只要看看周期通常如何趨勢的歷史數據，利率連續超過 4 個季度同比下降是不尋常的。我認為這讓我們有信心展望今年第四季度利率可能會轉為正數。

I think we've had a lot of dialogue with many of our customers. Many of those are the largest retailers in the nation, a lot of the largest CPG shippers in the nation. And independent conversations would support just their buying habits and how they change pretty dramatically in the fourth quarter and even into the first quarter.

我認為我們已經與許多客戶進行了很多對話。其中許多是全國最大的零售商，很多是全國最大的 CPG 托運人。獨立對話只會支持他們的購買習慣，以及他們在第四季度甚至第一季度發生的巨大變化。

But in all those conversations, the expectation is for those ordering patterns to begin to normalize and to see those volumes really begin to pick up into that June and July mark. So I think -- so it's not only just our view of the market looking at historic data and then our own information but also through the discussions with our customers.

但在所有這些對話中，人們期望這些訂購模式開始正常化，並看到這些數量真正開始回升至 6 月和 7 月。所以我認為 - 這不僅是我們對市場的看法，查看歷史數據，然後是我們自己的信息，而且還通過與客戶的討論。

Your next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz from UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Tom Wadewitz。

Dave, you talked a bit about this in your response to the first question, but just really on the cycle and how you see it playing out. I guess another kind of angle on that topic, do you think there are reasons why shippers may behave differently in the current freight downturn compared to other downturns?

戴夫，你在回答第一個問題時談到了這一點，但實際上是關於週期以及你如何看待它的結果。我想從另一個角度來看這個話題，你認為托運人在當前貨運低迷時期的行為與其他低迷時期相比有何不同的原因嗎？

And I mean truckloads are highly fragmented. It's kind of hard to get my arms around the industry behaving differently, but maybe like the largest trailer pool players behave differently. I'm just trying to get a sense of if there's not a bigger downturn on rates or what could be partly shipper behavior is different or even large carrier behavior is a bit different. So yes, that's the question.

我的意思是卡車裝載量高度分散。很難讓我的手臂圍繞這個行業表現不同，但也許就像最大的拖車池參與者表現不同一樣。我只是想了解一下，如果運費沒有出現更大的下滑，或者可能部分托運人的行為有所不同，甚至大型承運人的行為也有所不同。所以是的，這就是問題所在。

Thanks for the question, Tom. So I would say one thing that stands out that's a different behavior than what we've seen maybe historically from previous cycles is how well contractual rates have hung in there and what the demand for trailer pools has been. I think that where you see that showing up in our business is how well we've held on to our rate per mile.

謝謝你的問題，湯姆。因此，我想說的是，與我們從以前的周期中可能從歷史上看到的行為不同的是，合同利率在那裡的表現如何以及對拖車池的需求是什麼。我認為您在我們的業務中看到的地方是我們堅持每英里費率的程度。

Now of course, we try to anticipate the market many months, many quarters in advance. Ideally, we're somewhere between 6 and 12 months ahead of schedule all the time in how we anticipate and plan. And so this time last year, we were clearly increasing our commitments and moving away from the spot market. And that, of course, has served us well as you see in the results.

當然，現在我們嘗試提前好幾個月、好幾個季度預測市場。理想情況下，我們的預期和計劃總是比計劃提前 6 到 12 個月。因此，去年這個時候，我們明顯增加了我們的承諾並遠離現貨市場。當然，正如您在結果中看到的那樣，這對我們很有幫助。

But when you look at our Logistics business, for example, one that had an 86.4% operating ratio despite the fact that load volumes were down almost 19%. And you got to remember, when you have a Logistics business, but you also have such a large asset-based business, there's going to be probably a little support -- normally, the loads would flow the other way, but there might be a little bit more support that business.

但是，當您查看我們的物流業務時，例如，儘管裝載量下降了近 19%，但該業務的運營率為 86.4%。你必須記住，當你有物流業務，但你也有如此龐大的基於資產的業務時，可能會有一點支持——通常情況下，負載會流向另一個方向，但可能會有多一點支持那項業務。

But you look at our power-only volumes, and those were down 14%. But our gross margin continued to be very strong, 22.1%. So there's some value that's been created there. There's customers giving us opportunities when, I would say, other logistics firms are struggling to break even. We've been able to enjoy nice margin, hold on to volumes, and I think that's because we create more value with the trailer pool. So I think those are connected. I think we see that in our logistics. We clearly see that on the asset-based side of things.

但是你看看我們的純功率量，它們下降了 14%。但我們的毛利率仍然非常強勁，為 22.1%。所以那裡創造了一些價值。當我想說其他物流公司正在努力實現收支平衡時，有客戶給了我們機會。我們已經能夠享受到可觀的利潤，保持銷量，我認為這是因為我們通過拖車池創造了更多價值。所以我認為這些是相關的。我想我們在物流中看到了這一點。我們在基於資產的方面清楚地看到了這一點。

And so I do think that that's a little bit of a different -- that's a different behavior in the past. I mean, if we go back to pre-ELDs, the playbook for this kind of environment was very predictable. You would see shippers would move towards very large non-asset-based brokers who would come in offer, in many cases, double-digit rate declines. They would win massive volumes, and then they would execute. They would go find anybody and any carrier that could haul those, and there were people that were willing to do that at discounted prices given the difficulty in the market.

所以我確實認為這有點不同——這是過去的一種不同行為。我的意思是，如果我們回到 ELD 之前，這種環境的劇本是可以預見的。你會看到托運人會轉向非常大的非資產經紀人，他們會提供，在許多情況下，兩位數的利率下降。他們會贏得大量訂單，然後執行。他們會去找任何人和任何承運人來運輸這些東西，鑑於市場困難，有些人願意以折扣價這樣做。

And in many cases, it appears that some of those smaller carriers that maybe didn't have ELDs would figure out how to run more miles to stay alive in difficult times. Well, we have ELDs today, which regulate and are effective in enforcement of the hours of service rules. So you can't just go extend the day. You can't run more miles to make up for the fact that maybe you're not making as much.

在許多情況下，一些可能沒有 ELD 的小型航空公司似乎會想出如何在困難時期跑得更遠以維持生命。好吧，我們今天有 ELD，它規範並有效地執行服務時間規則。所以你不能只是去延長一天。你不能跑更多的英里來彌補你可能沒有賺那麼多的事實。

And likewise, our shippers, they can't just rely on that flexible group to wait around to be live loaded and live unloaded when a truck and a trailer and a driver show up. And they have to -- and the warehouse has to figure out how to stop what they're doing and unload it as opposed to for us can drop the trailer, and they can get to it hopefully within a day or 2.

同樣，我們的托運人，他們不能僅僅依靠那個靈活的團隊在卡車、拖車和司機出現時等待現場裝貨和現場卸載。他們必須 - 倉庫必須弄清楚如何停止他們正在做的事情並卸載它，而不是讓我們放下拖車，他們有望在一兩天內到達。

And so in this ELD world where you can't extend the day, if you will, they have to be paid if they're detained. And if you're detained more than 2 hours, even the smallest of carriers have to be compensated for that. And so that changes the economics tremendously.

所以在這個你不能延長一天的 ELD 世界裡，如果你願意的話，如果他們被拘留，就必須付錢給他們。如果你被拘留超過 2 小時，即使是最小的承運人也必須為此得到補償。因此，這極大地改變了經濟學。

So I think from -- those are just a couple of reasons why we think it creates so much value, and we're definitely seeing that pull through. I think that if you look at the last 12 months of contract rates, not just for us but based on some of the industry data, what you'll find is those rates are not down much, I mean somewhere mid-single-digit rates, generally speaking. And that's over a very broad group of a very fragmented industry, whereas spot rates declined every single month for 12 consecutive months in 2022. That's never happened to have such a steep decline in spot rates.

所以我認為 - 這些只是我們認為它創造如此多價值的幾個原因，而且我們肯定會看到這一點。我認為，如果您查看過去 12 個月的合同費率，不僅是我們的合同費率，而且根據一些行業數據，您會發現這些費率並沒有下降太多，我的意思是中等個位數的費率， 一般來說。這是一個非常分散的行業的一個非常廣泛的群體，而即期利率在 2022 年連續 12 個月每月下降。即期利率從未發生過如此急劇的下降。

And so those rates now are showing signs of a bit of a debt cap bounce, if you will. I mean they're just kind of bouncing maybe along the bottom. So we're at or near the bottom on spot rates. And now the question becomes, Tom, when do those rates start to crest up and when do we see the inflection point.

因此，如果你願意的話，這些利率現在顯示出一些債務上限反彈的跡象。我的意思是它們可能只是在底部彈跳。因此，我們的即期匯率處於或接近底部。現在的問題是，湯姆，這些利率什麼時候開始上升，我們什麼時候看到拐點。

If you look at the last couple of cycles, in 2017, it was in July or August of 2017 that spot rates came through the inflection point from the bottom and came through contract rates. And then they spiked and they hit their peak by August of 2018, and then they were back down. Whereas in a post ELD world, we saw this happen in the June, July of 2020 is when spot rates came off the bottom, and they intersected contract rates that were higher at the time. And then those rates continued to move forward up until January of 2022, which is when spot rates officially peaked before they started to decline for the 12 consecutive months, as I mentioned.

如果你看看過去的幾個週期，在 2017 年，即期匯率是在 2017 年 7 月或 8 月從底部突破拐點並通過合同匯率。然後他們飆升並在 2018 年 8 月達到頂峰，然後又回落。而在後 ELD 世界中，我們看到這種情況發生在 2020 年 6 月、7 月，當時即期匯率觸底，並且與當時較高的合同匯率相交。然後這些利率繼續上升，直到 2022 年 1 月，正如我提到的，即期利率在開始連續 12 個月下降之前正式達到頂峰。

And so I think now we find ourselves where those spot rates have come off, contract rates have really held in there, probably due in large part to the value of trailer pools. And now those spot rates are poised and if not have started to make their way back up to an intersection point. And what we know is once they intersect, we begin to enter a period of positive rates, not only in spot rates but start to see positive contractual rates.

所以我認為現在我們發現自己的現貨利率已經下降，合同利率確實保持在那裡，這在很大程度上可能是由於拖車池的價值。而現在這些即期匯率已經蓄勢待發，如果不是已經開始回到交叉點。我們所知道的是，一旦它們相交，我們就開始進入正利率時期，不僅是即期利率，而且開始看到正合同利率。

And then the question becomes, how long do you go until that peaks again? And that has everything to do with broader economic demand and to what degree do carriers oversupply their fleets by buying too many trucks and trailers, which I will tell you for the, I don't know, third consecutive year, purchasing new equipment still is on allocation. So it is not a free-for-all. And the cost is much higher to say nothing for the impact of interest rates. So Tom, probably a 10-pound answer for a 5-pound question, but that was some feedback.

然後問題就變成了，你要多久才能再次達到頂峰？這與更廣泛的經濟需求以及承運人通過購買過多卡車和拖車導致車隊供應過剩的程度有關，我將連續第三年告訴你，我不知道，購買新設備仍然是在分配上。所以這不是一個免費的。而且成本要高得多，更不用說利率的影響了。所以湯姆，對於一個 5 磅的問題，可能有 10 磅的答案，但這是一些反饋。

Your next question comes from the line of Todd Fowler from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Todd Fowler。

Maybe just to pick up -- and Adam, I think you touched on this on the first question. Dave, you touched on this a little bit to Tom's response. But thinking about your commentary on revenue per mile and the high single-digit declines to start the year and then an inflecting positive, how do you have that parsed out between contract and spot? And what are you seeing right now on kind of the contract renewal pricing side? How is that working through the numbers as we move through the revenue for model assumptions for the year?

也許只是為了接聽 - 亞當，我想你在第一個問題上談到了這一點。戴夫，你對湯姆的回應略微提到了這一點。但是想想你對每英里收入的評論以及今年年初的高個位數下降，然後是一個積極的變化，你如何在合同和現貨之間進行解析？您現在在合同續訂定價方面看到了什麼？當我們通過當年模型假設的收入時，如何處理這些數字？

Yes. I think -- so Tom, there's -- or Todd, sorry, there's very little spot opportunity in our expectation in the first half of this year. So most of that decline will be a result of contract renewals. And it's still early on in the bid season, and so we haven't had too many final awards. So those are still more -- those declines are more anticipated than what we actually have received. And so we're still in the early phases of that and having good dialogue with our customers.

是的。我認為 - 所以湯姆，有 - 或託德，抱歉，我們今年上半年的預期機會很少。因此，大部分下降將是合同續籤的結果。現在還處於投標季節的早期階段，所以我們還沒有獲得太多的最終獎項。所以這些仍然更多 - 這些下降比我們實際收到的更多。因此，我們仍處於早期階段，並與我們的客戶進行了良好的對話。

And then our expectation is in the back half of the year, some of the improvements in rate will come from contract renewals, but more or less the spot rate improving and then some of the projects that we typically participate in, in the fourth quarter.

然後我們的預期是在今年下半年，一些利率的提高將來自合同續簽，但或多或少的是現貨利率提高，然後是我們通常參與的一些項目，在第四季度。

And Adam, just a follow-up on that comment. So on the contract side, what is a reasonable expectation for contracts this year, I mean, just given the spread right now between spot and contract?

亞當，只是對該評論的跟進。那麼在合約方面，我的意思是，考慮到現貨和合約之間的價差，今年對合約的合理預期是多少？

Yes. Again, we're still kind of filling it out to the bid. So I don't want to put a number on that right now. We're still kind of understanding -- it really depends, Todd, on when we renewed the contract with that customer. I think the early parts of the bid season, that number will be larger. The higher single digits will be lower double digit. And as the bid season progresses, that number gets reduced.

是的。同樣，我們仍然在某種程度上填寫它的出價。所以我現在不想給出數字。我們仍然有點了解——托德，這真的取決於我們何時與該客戶續簽合同。我認為在投標季節的早期，這個數字會更大。較高的個位數將是較低的兩位數。隨著投標季節的進行，這個數字會減少。

Yes. Todd, it's hard for us to just generalize the whole thing because we have pieces of business that still need to be increased in rates because of how it works and how it fits into our network and the fact that we continue to see inflation.

是的。托德，我們很難概括整個事情，因為我們有一些業務仍然需要提高利率，因為它是如何運作的，它如何融入我們的網絡，以及我們繼續看到通貨膨脹的事實。

We do have other parts where sometimes we have an opportunity to maybe make a concession, help a customer who's trying to hit a budget target or goal if things are working in a super efficient way and perhaps, to Adam's point, the time in the cycle when that rate was renewed. But this is not an across-the-board answer that the rates are automatically down. That's just not the case.

我們確實有其他部分，有時我們有機會做出讓步，幫助那些試圖達到預算目標或目標的客戶，如果事情以超高效的方式進行，也許，對於亞當的觀點，週期中的時間當該利率被更新時。但這並不是利率自動下降的全面答案。事實並非如此。

Yes. Because I think we mentioned that some of our dedicated business, I think that's what David's alluded to, we'll have to increase because of how it's performing. And I think -- that's, I think, a typical hedge and an environment that we're faced with when you have OTR and dedicated, they perform differently in these type of environments.

是的。因為我認為我們提到了我們的一些專門業務，我認為這就是大衛所暗示的，我們將不得不增加，因為它的表現如何。而且我認為 - 我認為這是一個典型的對沖和我們在擁有 OTR 和專用時所面臨的環境，它們在這些類型的環境中表現不同。

Yes. Understood. No, it's helpful context. Just really trying to think about that expectation for that positive inflection in the fourth quarter, which certainly would seem to be positive.

是的。明白了。不，這是有用的上下文。只是真的想想想對第四季度這種積極變化的預期，這看起來肯定是積極的。

Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

So I think, Dave, you said, I think it was about a year ago now, that you think trough EPS [has a $4] on it, and clearly, your guidance for the year implies that you're comfortably above that level. But if I were to kind of just like take a step back and listen to what you've been saying on this call so far, kind of talking about the cycle actually not being as bad as prior cycles and a midyear inflection and everything else, it doesn't really sound that bad.

所以我認為，戴夫，你說，我認為大約一年前，你認為每股收益低谷 [有 4 美元]，很明顯，你今年的指導意味著你輕鬆高於該水平。但是，如果我有點想退後一步，聽聽你到目前為止在這個電話會議上所說的話，有點談論這個週期實際上並不像之前的周期和年中拐點和其他一切那麼糟糕，聽起來並沒有那麼糟糕。

And in that context, kind of the guide seems kind of punitive at this point, especially given that you have a really easy fourth quarter comp in '23. So I'm just thinking of like are there any puts and takes in some of the non-TL segments that we need to keep in mind? Or kind of what are some of the kind of the moving parts and maybe the bull case or the bear case that can get you to a higher number than what you've guided to or a lower number at the cycle turned out to be much worse than you expected?

在這種情況下，某種指南在這一點上似乎有點懲罰性，特別是考慮到你在 23 年的第四節比賽非常輕鬆。所以我只是在想，在我們需要記住的一些非 TL 部分中是否有任何 puts 和 takes？或某種移動部件的種類，也許是牛市或熊市，它們可以使您達到比您所指導的更高的數字或週期中更低的數字結果更糟比你預期的？

Yes. Well, I mean, the full Truckload still represents 2/3 of our earnings. So the full Truckload is by far the piece that gets -- that moves the needle the most. So when we look at what we would expect for them to earn in the first half of the year, that's going to be less than 50% of what our annual guidance would be. So I don't know if it's 45-55, 45% in the front half of the year, 55% in the back half of the year.

是的。好吧，我的意思是，滿載卡車仍然占我們收入的 2/3。因此，到目前為止，完整的 Truckload 是最重要的部分。因此，當我們查看我們對他們今年上半年的預期收入時，這將不到我們年度指導的 50%。所以不知道是不是45-55，前半年45%，後半年55%。

But it's not like we're looking at a back half that's a total hail Mary in order to get over $4 a share. But I will tell you that for us to achieve more than $4 a share would be a tremendous accomplishment, recognizing that here in 2022, we just earned $5 -- just over $5 a share with such a tremendous environment. And for us to adapt and yet have a stock that trades based on being a pure cyclical, well, a cyclical would not react that way. That would be -- we would be countercyclical to earn more than $4 a share.

但這並不是說我們正在尋找後半部分，為了獲得每股 4 美元以上的收益，瑪麗完全歡呼雀躍。但我會告訴你，對我們來說，實現每股 4 美元以上將是一項巨大的成就，因為認識到在 2022 年這裡，我們剛剛賺了 5 美元——在如此巨大的環境下，每股收益剛剛超過 5 美元。為了讓我們適應並擁有一隻基於純粹週期性交易的股票，好吧，週期性股票不會那樣反應。那就是——我們將逆週期盈利超過每股 4 美元。

So it isn't going to be easy, but our model guides us there or we wouldn't put it there. I think one factor that we have working for us is the LTL portion of our earnings. Boy, we just couldn't -- we couldn't be more happy with that group. I mean that's a group that -- yes, LTL is feeling -- as an industry is feeling a little bit of pressure, but it's nothing like the volatility that you see and what happens with rates on the full Truckload side.

所以這並不容易，但我們的模型引導我們到那裡，否則我們不會把它放在那裡。我認為我們為我們工作的一個因素是我們收入的 LTL 部分。天啊，我們就是不能——我們不能對那個小組更滿意。我的意思是，這是一個群體——是的，LTL 正在感受到——作為一個行業，它感受到了一點壓力，但這與你看到的波動以及整個卡車裝載方面的費率所發生的情況完全不同。

And so -- and it's a business that, for us, we just continue to make incremental progress. And so that's a bit of a factor that's out there that, hey, we're new into it, and we want to be a little bit cautious. But in this fourth quarter, in addition to performing with an 85.5% OR, that's almost 500 bps better than the 90.3% a year ago, that's a business where we were able to take the MME brand and business that's a 100-year-old company. And our leaders at AAA Cooper were able to successfully integrate a new back-end system that really touches and affects 100% of the business.

因此 - 對我們來說，這是一項我們只是繼續取得漸進進展的業務。所以這是一個因素，嘿，我們是新手，我們想要謹慎一點。但在第四季度，除了 OR 達到 85.5% 之外，這比一年前的 90.3% 高出近 500 個基點，這是我們能夠採用 MME 品牌和擁有 100 年曆史的業務的業務公司。我們在 AAA Cooper 的領導者能夠成功集成一個真正觸及並影響 100% 業務的新後端系統。

And so it was tremendous modernization to do while still running and working the business. And that took effect in October and has continued to be modified, and there will continue to be synergies that will roll out. I mean this -- we didn't use dimensioners, as an example, at MME before the acquisition. And so those investments that have been made, that will continue to take effect.

因此，在仍在運營和開展業務的同時進行巨大的現代化改造。並且在 10 月份生效並繼續修改，並且將繼續推出協同效應。我的意思是——例如，在收購之前，我們在 MME 沒有使用尺寸測量器。因此，已經進行的投資將繼續生效。

And so -- and I guess I at least should note, Ravi, that, that business revenue was up almost 15% with adjusted operating income up over 70% on a year-over-year basis. And so that's diversification. That's why we're in LTL. That's why we like it. And we continue to find ways that we can bring synergies between TL and into LTL. And of course, we're still working to fill out the country and geographically to have a nationwide offering. And so that will continue to help us.

因此——我想我至少應該注意到，拉維，業務收入增長了近 15%，調整後的營業收入同比增長了 70% 以上。這就是多元化。這就是我們使用 LTL 的原因。這就是我們喜歡它的原因。我們將繼續尋找可以將 TL 和 LTL 之間的協同作用帶入的方法。當然，我們仍在努力擴大國家和地理範圍，以便在全國范圍內提供服務。因此，這將繼續幫助我們。

But there's a lot of people, I think, Ravi, that aren't sure we can earn $4, just if I look at what's some of the guidance and how this -- I mean the stock seems to be tied to us earning a lot less than that. So -- but hey, we're just -- we've done our homework in terms of where we feel like our guidance is going to be best on -- or based on the best information we have available now to try and predict the future, and that's the range we came up with.

但是，我認為，拉維，有很多人不確定我們能否賺到 4 美元，只要我看看其中的一些指導以及它是如何——我的意思是股票似乎與我們賺很多錢掛鉤少於那個。所以——但是，嘿，我們只是——我們已經完成了我們認為我們的指導最適合的方面的功課——或者基於我們現在可用的最佳信息來嘗試和預測未來，這就是我們想出的範圍。

Yes. And Ravi, I think last quarter, I went into greater detail of how each segment would need to perform to achieve that $4 mark. And I think as we look at our guidance, we're not going to that detail in our guidance today. But fairly aligned there. I think maybe the one outlier is the intermodal. We talked about that being a mid-90s operating ratio. We've just seen some challenges there on volume, especially with the better availability of truckload capacity and the service that, that performs at versus intermodal.

是的。而拉維，我想上個季度，我更詳細地介紹了每個細分市場需要如何表現才能達到 4 美元大關。我認為，當我們審視我們的指南時，我們今天不會在指南中詳細說明。但在那里相當一致。我認為也許唯一的例外是多式聯運。我們談到這是 90 年代中期的運營比率。我們剛剛在數量上看到了一些挑戰，尤其是卡車運力的可用性和與多式聯運相比執行的服務更好。

And so that would be one area that would be maybe off from what we would have called out last quarter. But generally speaking, our segments will perform as I laid out. And we'll still have to see how everything plays out in this bid season, but we just have a tremendous amount of confidence based on how these cycles have developed historically and the communication we're having with our customers.

因此，這將是一個可能與我們上個季度所呼籲的領域不同的領域。但總的來說，我們的細分市場會按照我的計劃進行。我們仍然需要看看這個投標季節的一切情況如何，但根據這些週期在歷史上的發展方式以及我們與客戶的溝通，我們非常有信心。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Hoexter from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

If I can just kind of maybe follow up on that $4 floor and the stress test there, just maybe talk a little bit about the Truckload side moving back into the -- does that go to mid -- upper 80s in your thought? And I guess, specifically, confidence in the gains, you've got $10 million to $15 million. It seems to have $10 million to $15 million sense to the targets, which would -- could put some pressure alone, I guess, on that floor.

如果我可以跟進那 4 美元的樓層和那裡的壓力測試，也許可以談談 Truckload 方面回到你認為的 80 年代中期？我想，具體來說，對收益的信心，你有 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元。它似乎對目標有 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元的意義，我猜這可能會給那個樓層帶來一些壓力。

And then on the -- I guess, on the intermodal side, any comments on the now transition of Schneider over to Union Pacific? Obviously, they had some service issues, how your service has been. And is that -- I know you mentioned kind of the mid-90s that -- can you see deterioration if they start getting maybe better access to the yards or thoughts on intermodal?

然後 - 我想，在多式聯運方面，對施耐德現在過渡到聯合太平洋的任何評論？顯然，他們有一些服務問題，您的服務如何。那是——我知道你提到了 90 年代中期——如果他們開始更好地進入碼頭或考慮多式聯運，你能看到惡化嗎？

Sure. So I'll start on your truckload question. Last quarter, I talked about in a difficult environment, the Truckload segment as a whole, which would include our over the road and our dedicated business operating in the mid-80s. And that would be our expectation for the full year with that being a little more challenged in the first half of the year and then improving into the back half, particularly into second quarter -- or sorry, the fourth quarter.

當然。所以我將從你的卡車裝載問題開始。上個季度，我談到了在困難的環境中，整個卡車裝載部分，其中包括我們的道路和我們在 80 年代中期運營的專門業務。這將是我們對全年的預期，因為上半年會遇到更多挑戰，然後在下半年有所改善，尤其是第二季度——或者抱歉，第四季度。

As it relates to your intermodal question, thus far, there hasn't been much impact with the conversion from Schneider from the BN to the UP. I think we watch our service closely. I mean there's certain areas where we certainly can improve the service. And I don't know that it's related to the Schneider conversion. I think just kind of the challenges that we've been dealing with, with some of our rail partners across the board.

由於它涉及到您的多式聯運問題，到目前為止，施耐德從 BN 到 UP 的轉換沒有太大影響。我認為我們密切關注我們的服務。我的意思是在某些方面我們當然可以改進服務。而且我不知道這與施耐德轉換有關。我認為這只是我們一直在與我們的一些鐵路合作夥伴一起應對的挑戰。

But it does seem like the rail fluidity is improving, rail labor is more readily available, and we have confidence that will continue to improve. And I think our customers have seen that. I think we've improved service dramatically with certain customers where we expect to receive large awards this year. And so we're confident to be able to build that low count into the back half of the year. But I think the first half is still going to be a bit of a challenge kind of given the environment we're currently in.

但看起來鐵路流動性正在改善，鐵路勞動力更容易獲得，我們有信心繼續改善。我認為我們的客戶已經看到了這一點。我認為我們已經大大改善了某些客戶的服務，我們預計今年將獲得大獎。因此，我們有信心能夠在今年下半年實現這一低點。但我認為，考慮到我們目前所處的環境，上半年仍然會有點挑戰。

And Adam, can you just wrap up on the gains on sale, right? Because that's such a big, I guess, swing factor in that range.

亞當，你能不能結束銷售收益，對吧？因為在那個範圍內，我猜這是一個很大的搖擺因素。

Yes. I mean we had the gains coming off meaningfully from where they were last year. And we have a good purview into the used equipment market. And even in the first quarter when spot market has been as slow as it has been, which would typically mean that you've got small carriers not buying equipment, we're still seeing activity. And I think that's a result of just very lean inventories because the OEMs have still been challenged to fill everyone's orders. And I think most of the large carriers have continued to age their fleet out. And so that's just limited the inventory of used equipment. And so what we are selling is still at healthy margins. And we don't see that changing dramatically throughout the year.

是的。我的意思是，與去年相比，我們取得了有意義的收益。我們對二手設備市場有很好的權限。即使在第一季度現貨市場一直很緩慢，這通常意味著你有小型運營商不購買設備，我們仍然看到活動。我認為這是庫存非常精簡的結果，因為原始設備製造商仍然面臨著滿足每個人訂單的挑戰。而且我認為大多數大型航空公司都在繼續老化他們的機隊。因此，這只是限制了二手設備的庫存。因此，我們所銷售的產品仍具有可觀的利潤率。而且我們沒有看到這一年全年發生巨大變化。

Your next question comes from the line of Bert Subin from Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Bert Subin。

Dave, if I look at Slide 14, I don't want to belabor the point, but I think it's obvious thinking about your $4-plus earnings guidance, that implies about 100% earnings power expansion, which is obviously a tremendous feat. And so I think people are trying to get their arms around that. If I look at Slide 14 in those guidance assumptions, where would you say the greatest uncertainty is in your mind as you go through them?

戴夫，如果我看幻燈片 14，我不想強調這一點，但我認為很明顯考慮到你 4 美元以上的盈利指導，這意味著大約 100% 的盈利能力擴張，這顯然是一個巨大的壯舉。所以我認為人們正在努力解決這個問題。如果我在這些指導假設中查看幻燈片 14，您會說在您瀏覽這些假設時您心中最大的不確定性在哪裡？

Yes. I mean it's tough to say. I mean, I know -- look, the guidance is kind of our best guess based on what we know in the market today. I don't want to say it's aggressive. I don't want to say it's conservative, and this is what we feel is kind of down the fairway with the knowledge that we have today for -- so it'd be tough to point out one of the data points as being more uncertain than another.

是的。我的意思是這很難說。我的意思是，我知道——看，該指導是我們根據當今市場所了解的情況做出的最佳猜測。我不想說它具有侵略性。我不想說它是保守的，這就是我們認為以我們今天所擁有的知識為基礎的東西——所以很難指出其中一個數據點更不確定比另一個。

Well, if Washington somehow messes with tax rates, that would be the biggest. So we'll start there, if we can't stay at close to 25% tax rate. Does that help you, Bert?

好吧，如果華盛頓以某種方式搞亂稅率，那將是最大的。所以我們將從那裡開始，如果我們不能保持接近 25% 的稅率。這對你有幫助嗎，伯特？

Yes. I think that moves the needle. Yes, go ahead.

是的。我認為這推動了針。好，去吧。

Realistically, Bert, rate per mile -- if rate per mile -- weird, weird things happen with rate per mile. Obviously, that's a big lever to move. But we're not sitting here looking at a market that's about to slow. Spot rates peaked 13 months ago. And so I mean -- so we already are well into this.

實際上，Bert，每英里費率——如果是每英里費率——奇怪的是，每英里費率會發生奇怪的事情。顯然，這是一個很大的推動力。但我們並不是坐在這裡看著即將放緩的市場。即期匯率在 13 個月前達到頂峰。所以我的意思是 - 所以我們已經深入了解了這一點。

And so if you can predict what's going to happen with rates, you can predict a lot of things. And so nobody knows exactly how that's going to go. But we've seen significant resiliency in our rate per mile through this year as a result of the way we've built the business and the way we do things, but also the relative value that we create compared to other folks.

所以如果你能預測利率會發生什麼，你就可以預測很多事情。所以沒有人確切地知道這將如何進行。但由於我們建立業務的方式和我們做事的方式，以及與其他人相比我們創造的相對價值，今年我們的每英里費率具有顯著的彈性。

And so you'd be hard-pressed to go back and find any other cycle where you went peak to trough in longer than 18 months. It's just -- you just don't find it. I mean often, it's -- you don't see the double digit -- or you don't see the declines in over 12 consecutive months. But you'd be hard-pressed to find peak to trough in greater than 18 months.

因此，您很難回過頭來找到您在超過 18 個月的時間裡從高峰到低谷的任何其他週期。只是 - 你只是找不到它。我的意思是，通常是——你看不到兩位數——或者你看不到連續 12 個月的下降。但是你很難找到超過 18 個月的高峰到低谷。

And this -- we're already over 12 months into this, and this one was not was not precipitated by an oversupply of equipment coming into it like every other cycle was. And so that gives us a little bit of little bit of a glimpse into what we can expect both in contract rates as well as spot rates that we think will rebound in the back half of the year. So -- but that would be -- I mean that would arguably be the biggest lever in the guidance.

而這個 - 我們已經超過 12 個月了，而這個不是像其他每個週期一樣是由設備供應過剩引起的。因此，這讓我們對合同利率和我們認為將在今年下半年反彈的即期利率有了一些了解。所以——但那將是——我的意思是這可以說是指南中最大的槓桿。

Maybe just put another way, Logistics, the manner in which you operate it is certainly different from several years ago. And LTL is a new business altogether for Knight-Swift. I guess my question is maybe how do you get comfortable with those assumptions because Logistics OR, you're implying sort of low double-digit to high single-digit margins, which would be fantastic, particularly in a bad year.

也許換句話說，物流，你經營它的方式肯定與幾年前不同。 LTL 對 Knight-Swift 來說完全是一項新業務。我想我的問題可能是你如何對這些假設感到滿意，因為物流或者，你暗示某種低兩位數到高個位數的利潤率，這太棒了，特別是在糟糕的一年。

In LTL, somewhere in this sort of mid-low teens range on margins, both would be really good and haven't really played those out through a down cycle, at least in their current form. So I know you've talked about your models consistent. I'm just curious, are those not -- there's not a ton of uncertainty there for you? It's more on sort of how contract rates play out?

在 LTL 中，在這種中低青少年利潤率範圍內的某個地方，兩者都非常好並且還沒有真正通過下行週期發揮作用，至少在他們目前的形式下。所以我知道你已經談到了你的模型是一致的。我只是很好奇，那些不是 - 對你來說沒有很多不確定性嗎？更多的是關於合同費率如何發揮作用？

No. I mean I would say there's less uncertainty in the LTL world. I mean they just perform -- it performs just so much more consistent than full Truckload does. And then we have a bit of a secular story on top of what's going on in the industry. And that's -- the secular story just has to do with the kind of synergies and opportunities we have and what can come from a super regional that could connect large portions of the country and allow us to compete in some of the national arena already.

不。我的意思是我會說 LTL 世界的不確定性較小。我的意思是他們只是表現——它的表現比完整的卡車負載要穩定得多。然後我們在行業中發生的事情之上有一些世俗的故事。那就是——世俗的故事只與我們擁有的那種協同作用和機會有關，以及一個可以連接該國大部分地區並允許我們已經在一些國家舞台上競爭的超級區域會帶來什麼。

And the other side of that, I would tell you, is wages continue to go up. LTL industry wages are on pace for probably about a 5% increase to the wage of those drivers. Now that's different than LTL or different in full Truckload. And so I think you're going to continue to see LTL rates have to go up because their largest expense continues to be inflationary.

另一方面，我會告訴你，工資繼續上漲。 LTL 行業的工資有望比這些司機的工資增加約 5%。現在，這與 LTL 或整車不同。所以我認為你會繼續看到 LTL 費率必須上升，因為他們最大的支出仍然是通貨膨脹。

On Logistics, Logistics is going to be volatile. But the reality is our Logistics business, if I look at just this most recent quarter, it produced $23.5 million of operating income, of the which we're grateful for all of it. But in terms of moving the needle on our entire nearly $8 billion parent company, that isn't the one that -- that isn't the biggest lever.

在物流方面，物流將是不穩定的。但現實是我們的物流業務，如果我只看最近這個季度，它產生了 2350 萬美元的營業收入，我們對此表示感謝。但就推動我們整個近 80 億美元的母公司而言，這並不是最大的槓桿。

Yes. And I'd add on the Logistics front, Bert, I mean we do have that moving up from the mid-80s, which we accomplished in 2022. And we note here in the guidance, high 80s, low 90s shift. If you look at the absolute performance for 2023, it would be very good compared to really anybody else in the market. It's just we're coming from such a strong position in 2022. So we do expect to give up something there.

是的。我要在物流方面補充一點，伯特，我的意思是我們確實從 2022 年實現的 80 年代中期開始向前發展。我們在指南中註意到，80 年代高點，90 年代低點轉變。如果你看一下 2023 年的絕對錶現，與市場上的其他任何人相比，這將是非常好的。只是我們在 2022 年處於如此有利的地位。所以我們確實希望在那裡放棄一些東西。

Now I mean, as you know, in Logistics, your largest cost is purchase trends. That's going to be variable and move with rates. And generally speaking, when you're doing power-only loads that -- those rates are less volatile too, typically hold in stronger because there's less competition in the brokerage market, yet you're buying capacity in the open market. So the gross margins there are a lot more resilient than your pure live load, live unload opportunities.

現在我的意思是，正如你所知，在物流中，你最大的成本是採購趨勢。這將是可變的並隨利率變化。一般來說，當你只做電力負載時——這些利率的波動性也較小，通常會保持強勁，因為經紀市場的競爭較少，但你是在公開市場上購買容量。因此，那裡的毛利率比您的純活載、活卸貨機會更有彈性。

Your next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra from Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

I guess I just had a couple of quick ones. One, Dave, how likely is it do you think for Knight to do another acquisition this year, kind of like a meaningful acquisition like AAA that can really move the needle in terms of earnings contribution?

我想我只是有幾個快速的。第一，Dave，你認為 Knight 今年進行另一次收購的可能性有多大，有點像像 AAA 這樣有意義的收購，它可以在盈利貢獻方面真正發揮作用？

And then, Adam, if we look at the fourth quarter results, I want to go back to maybe Jack's question around the first quarter. Because in the fourth quarter, we didn't really see crack in yield on a loaded-mile basis. It was down by 1% sequentially. And it's probably going to be down by 10% sequentially in the first quarter. So I'm trying to reconcile that dynamic with Dave's comments initially, saying that you should see like not much of a seasonal -- a very counter-seasonal move 4Q to 1Q?

然後，亞當，如果我們看一下第四季度的結果，我想回到傑克關於第一季度的問題。因為在第四季度，我們並沒有真正看到以載重英里為基礎的收益率出現裂痕。環比下跌 1%。第一季度可能會連續下降 10%。所以我試圖將這種動態與 Dave 最初的評論相協調，說你應該看到沒有太多的季節性 - 一個非常反季節性的移動 4Q 到 1Q？

Because if I look at 4Q, we just didn't see the crack in yield that we may be expecting in the first quarter. So it would be just helpful, Adam, I think if you could help us frame like what is the actual decline you expect in Truckload profits from 4Q to 1Q just given that dynamic on yield.

因為如果我看第 4 季度，我們只是沒有看到我們可能在第一季度預期的收益率出現裂痕。所以這會很有幫助，亞當，我想如果你能幫助我們構建你預期的卡車利潤從第四季度到第一季度的實際下降是多少，只是考慮到收益率的動態。

So Amit, from an M&A perspective, we sit here right now at about 0.97 leverage ratio. So we're well positioned to act. Our #1 priority clearly is LTL. Those take time and you have to have the right timing in some cases for that to work out. And so in between those, we look at a variety of companies. And as we alluded to in our last quarterly call, truckload carriers are attractive to us and -- because we had so much comfort. We have, we think, an enviable track record with that and we know it, we love it, and we wouldn't be afraid to do truckload deals as well. So we think we have the bandwidth to be able to do both. And so we remain very interested, and I would say, very active in the M&A world.

所以阿米特，從併購的角度來看，我們現在坐在這裡的槓桿率約為 0.97。因此，我們已準備好採取行動。我們的第一要務顯然是 LTL。這些需要時間，在某些情況下你必須有正確的時間才能解決。因此，在這些之間，我們研究了各種各樣的公司。正如我們在上一個季度電話會議中提到的那樣，卡車承運人對我們很有吸引力，而且——因為我們有很多安慰。我們認為，我們在這方面擁有令人羨慕的記錄，我們知道，我們喜歡它，我們也不會害怕做整車交易。所以我們認為我們有能力做到這兩點。因此，我們仍然非常感興趣，我想說，在併購領域非常活躍。

And on the -- your second question, Amit. when I look at 2021 versus 2022, I mean the fourth quarter there was unbelievable in 2021 led to a big step down, I think almost $0.25 $0.26 a share into Q1, which Q1 was still strong. Q4 this year, we are hauling freight in just normal course. We didn't have projects, we didn't have spot opportunities. And so as you transition from Q4 into Q1, you don't have a lot changing in that freight dynamic.

關於 - 你的第二個問題，阿米特。當我比較 2021 年和 2022 年時，我的意思是 2021 年第四季度出現了令人難以置信的大幅下滑，我認為第一季度每股收益接近 0.25 美元 0.26 美元，第一季度仍然很強勁。今年第四季度，我們正在正常運輸貨物。我們沒有項目，我們沒有現場機會。因此，當您從第四季度過渡到第一季度時，貨運動態沒有太大變化。

Now you have bids that you're working through. But many of those bids aren't effective until you go into probably early second quarter, some will be later in the second quarter. And then as the bid season progresses, you're probably complete by probably mid-third quarter.

現在你有你正在處理的出價。但是這些出價中的許多要到你可能進入第二季度初才會生效，有些會在第二季度晚些時候生效。然後隨著投標季節的進行，您可能會在第三季度中期完成。

So is rate going to be pressured Q4 to Q1? Probably. I don't know is to the extent that you quoted. But -- so I don't see the normal step down you would see from the Q4 where you have project business, you have robust spot market and then you move into Q1 where you're just, again, moving freight in the normal course. The dynamic hasn't changed that dramatically.

那麼利率會在第四季度到第一季度受到壓力嗎？大概。我不知道你引用的是什麼程度。但是 - 所以我沒有看到你從第四季度看到的正常下降，你有項目業務，你有強勁的現貨市場，然後你進入第一季度，你只是再次在正常過程中移動貨運.動態並沒有那麼顯著地改變。

So -- but adjusted profits in truck cracking went down 18% 4Q '21 to 1Q '22. Are you basically saying that it's going to be down significantly less than that as you move from 4Q '22 to 1Q '23?

所以——但調整後的卡車裂解利潤從 21 年第四季度到 22 年第一季度下降了 18%。你基本上是說當你從 22 年第四季度到 23 年第一季度時，它的下降幅度會大大小於這個數字嗎？

I would say overall for the business, I wouldn't see the same step down in profit from -- the same percentage step down in profit from Q4 to Q1.

我想說的是，對於整個業務而言，我不會看到從第四季度到第一季度的利潤下降幅度相同。

Yes. Thanks, Amit. Well, JP, we appreciate your help as our operator. Everyone, thanks for joining our call today. we apologize to a little more than a half dozen who were in the queue to ask questions that we didn't get to. Welcome to reach out to us directly and hope everyone has a great evening.

是的。謝謝，阿米特。好吧，JP，我們感謝您作為我們的接線員的幫助。大家，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我們向隊列中的六個多一點的人道歉，他們提出了我們沒有得到的問題。歡迎直接與我們聯繫，祝大家度過一個愉快的夜晚。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。