Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc (KNX) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon.

午安.

My name is John, and I'll be your conference operator today.

我叫約翰，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time, welcome everyone to the Knight-Swift Transportation second-quarter 2024 earnings call.

此時此刻，歡迎大家參加 Knight-Swift Transportation 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Speakers from today's call will be Adam Miller Chief Executive Officer; Andrew Hess Chief Financial Officer; Brad Stewart, Treasurer, and Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

今天電話會議的發言人將是執行長 Adam Miller；安德魯·赫斯首席財務官； Brad Stewart，財務長兼投資者關係資深副總裁。

Mr. Stewart, the meeting is now yours.

史都華先生，現在會議由您主持。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our second-quarter 2024 earnings call.

大家下午好，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

Today, we plan to discuss topics related to the results of the quarter, current market conditions and our earnings guidance.

今天，我們計劃討論與本季業績、當前市場狀況和我們的獲利指引相關的議題。

We have slides to accompany this call, which are posted on our investor website.

我們在本次電話會議上附有幻燈片，這些幻燈片發佈在我們的投資者網站上。

Our call is scheduled to last one hour.

我們的通話預計持續一小時。

Following our commentary, we will answer questions related to these topics in order to get to as many participants as possible, we limit the questions to one per participant.

在我們的評論之後，我們將回答與這些主題相關的問題，以便盡可能多地接觸到參與者，我們將問題限制為每個參與者一個。

If you have a second question, please feel free to get back in the queue, we will answer as many questions as time allows.

如果您還有第二個問題，請隨時回到隊列中，我們將在時間允許的情況下回答盡可能多的問題。

If we're not able to get to your question due to time restrictions, you may call 602-606-6349.

如果由於時間限制我們無法回答您的問題，您可以致電 602-606-6349。

To begin, I'll first refer you to the disclosures on slide 2 of the presentation and note the following, this conference call and presentation may contain forward-looking statements made by the company that involve risks, assumptions and uncertainties that are difficult to predict.

首先，我將首先向您推薦簡報投影片2 上的揭露內容，並注意以下內容，本次電話會議和簡報可能包含本公司所做的前瞻性聲明，這些聲明涉及難以預測的風險、假設和不確定性。

Investors are directed to the information contained in item 1A Risk Factors or Part 1 of the company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the United States SEC for a discussion of the risks that may affect the company's future operating results actual results may differ.

投資者應參閱公司向美國 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格年度報告第 1A 項風險因素或第 1 部分中包含的信息，以討論可能影響公司未來經營業績的風險，實際結果可能有所不同。

Now I will turn to our overview on slide 3.

現在我將轉向投影片 3 上的概述。

The charts on slide 3, compare our consolidated second quarter revenue and earnings results on a year-over-year basis revenue, excluding fuel surcharge, increased 18.1% due to the acquisition of US Xpress in July of last year.

第 3 張投影片上的圖表比較了我們第二季度的綜合收入和盈利結果，由於去年 7 月收購了 US Xpress，收入（不包括燃油附加費）同比增長了 18.1%。

Our adjusted operating income declined by 22.8% GAAP earnings per diluted share for the second quarter of 2024 was $0.13 and our adjusted EPS was $0.24. These results include a $12.5 million pretax charge for the settlement of a large auto liability claim from 2020.

我們調整後的營業收入下降了 22.8%，2024 年第二季的 GAAP 攤薄每股收益為 0.13 美元，調整後每股收益為 0.24 美元。這些結果包括從 2020 年起解決大額汽車責任索賠的 1,250 萬美元稅前費用。

This settlement negatively impacted our adjusted EPS by $0.06 per share.

和解協議對我們的調整後每股收益產生了 0.06 美元的負面影響。

Excluding the settlement, our adjusted EPS would have been $0.3 for the quarter.

如果不包括和解協議，我們該季度調整後的每股收益將為 0.3 美元。

Our results were also negatively impacted on a year-over-year basis by a $17.8 million increase in net interest expense and the 11.3% increase in the effective tax rate on our GAAP results and 5.3% increase in the effective tax rate on our non-GAAP results, year-over-year, impairment severance and legal accruals totaling $6.5 million are also excluded from our non-GAAP results.

我們的業績也受到了同比的負面影響，淨利息支出增加了 1780 萬美元，GAAP 業績的有效稅率增加了 11.3%，非營業收入的有效稅率增加了 5.3%。法律應計費用總計650 萬美元也不包含在我們的非GAAP 業績中。

Now on to the next slide, slide 4 illustrates the revenue and adjusted operating income for each of our segments.

現在轉到下一張投影片，投影片 4 說明了我們每個部門的收入和調整後的營業收入。

In general, our Truckload Logistics and Intermodal segments continue to navigate a challenging full truckload market.

總體而言，我們的整車物流和多式聯運部門繼續應對充滿挑戰的整車市場。

Domestic inland freight demand has yet to show the strength seen in the ocean container market and the ongoing attrition of excess trucking capacity added during the upcycle still has further to go.

國內內陸貨運需求尚未表現出海運貨櫃市場的強勁勢頭，而且在升級週期中增加的過剩卡車運力的持續消耗仍有待進一步發展。

Freight rates have largely stabilized, but at unsustainable levels, the LTL segment continues to experience a much more supportive market where rate increases remained consistent.

貨運費率已基本穩定，但處於不可持續的水平，零擔運輸市場繼續經歷一個更有利的市場，費率上漲保持一致。

Combination of seasonal demand improvement, stable pricing and moderating cost inflation supported sequential improvement in operating results across our businesses during this quarter, the market is giving more and more signs of being balanced.

季節性需求改善、穩定的定價和溫和的成本通膨共同支持了本季我們各業務經營業績的連續改善，市場越來越多地出現平衡的跡象。

Acute customer needs are increasingly noticeable.

客戶的迫切需求日益引人注目。

Trailer pools are starting to be valued again and scale and service are becoming more of a differentiator.

拖車池開始再次受到重視，規模和服務變得越來越重要。

These are all signs that align with the unique value that we are positioned to create for our customers when the market strengthens.

這些跡像都與我們在市場走強時為客戶創造的獨特價值一致。

For now, we remain focused on disciplined pricing, cost control, operational excellence and collaborating across our unique suite of brands to create distinctive solutions.

目前，我們仍然專注於嚴格的定價、成本控制、卓越運營，以及與我們獨特的品牌套件合作以創建獨特的解決方案。

Now I'll turn it over to Adam to discuss our truckload business, slide 5.

現在我將把它交給 Adam 來討論我們的整車業務，幻燈片 5。

Thank you, Brad, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝布拉德，大家下午好。

And for the truckload segment, demand has yet to truly breakout and further attrition of excess capacity is still needed we have a long way to go to return to our target levels of performance, but it is starting to feel like the bottom is behind us for this cycle.

對於卡車運輸領域來說，需求尚未真正突破，仍需要進一步消耗過剩產能，要回到目標績效水準還有很長的路要走，但我們開始感覺到底部已經過去了。

In short I think the story on our truckload business for the second quarter is one of stabilization and a seasonal build in demand.

簡而言之，我認為第二季我們的卡車業務的情況是穩定和需求的季節性成長。

We saw steady demand that has generally followed seasonal patterns since March, develop into an uptick in June.

我們看到自 3 月以來總體上遵循季節性模式的穩定需求在 6 月發展為上升。

This was fairly broad-based as a number of customers look to secure additional capacity to support elevated volumes.

這是相當廣泛的，因為許多客戶希望獲得額外的容量來支援增加的產量。

This helped to support a stabilization in revenue per mile a quarter earlier than we had anticipated as well as an improvement in utilization.

這有助於支持每英里收入比我們預期提前一個季度實現穩定，並提高利用率。

It's too early to call this a trend and for it to be, I mean a material driving force around our earnings.

現在將這種趨勢稱為趨勢還為時過早，我指的是圍繞我們獲利的物質驅動力。

But in prior cycles, this would indicate the early signs of a market setting up to change.

但在先前的周期中，這將表明市場即將發生變化的早期跡象。

There has been some moderation in demand in the last in the in the two weeks since the July4, holiday, which is in line with the typical seasonal pattern.

自 7 月 4 日假期以來的兩週內，需求有所放緩，這符合典型的季節性模式。

If the trends over the past few months continue, we should see demand building as we exit the third quarter and some return of season seasonal activity for the fourth quarter for the first time in years.

如果過去幾個月的趨勢持續下去，隨著第三季的結束，我們應該會看到需求的增加，並且第四季的季節性活動將在多年來首次出現一些回歸。

On a year-over-year basis, our truckload revenue, excluding fuel and fuel surcharge for the second quarter increased 33%, reflecting a 5.7% decline in the legacy truckload business prior to the inclusion of US Xpress.

與去年同期相比，我們第二季的整車收入（不含燃油和燃油附加費）成長了 33%，反映出納入 US Xpress 之前傳統整車業務下降了 5.7%。

The year-over-year decline in revenue per loaded mile, excluding fuel surcharge, narrowed to 5.5% in the current quarter as rate held stable with the first quarter.

由於與第一季保持穩定，本季每裝載英里收入（不含燃油附加費）年減幅收窄至 5.5%。

Further, our spot exposure remained relatively consistent with where we entered the second quarter.

此外，我們的現貨敞口與進入第二季度時的情況保持相對一致。

Miles per tractor increased 8.5%, largely driven by our earlier decision to reduce the number of unseated tractors in our legacy businesses to reduce costs.

每台拖拉機的行駛里程增加了 8.5%，這主要是由於我們先前決定減少傳統業務中未停機的數量以降低成本。

Excluding US Xpress, revenue per tractor, excluding fuel surcharge, increased 3.5% year-over-year, which was the first year-over-year increase in six quarters as the improved miles per tractor with while the decline in pricing decelerates.

不包括 US Xpress，每台拖拉機的收入（不包括燃油附加費）同比增長 3.5%，這是六個季度以來首次同比增長，因為每台拖拉機的里程數有所提高，而價格下降速度放緩。

US Xpress experienced modest sequential declines in revenue and miles for the quarter as a result of some churn in its freight portfolio.

由於貨運組合的一些變動，US Xpress 本季的營收和里程數出現了小幅環比下降。

However, sequential progress on revenue per mile and stable cost helped offset these challenges to hold the operating ratio flat with the first quarter.

然而，每英里收入的連續進展和穩定的成本幫助抵消了這些挑戰，使營運比率與第一季持平。

We are preparing our businesses in the trough to maximize the benefits of operating leverage when the cycle turns.

我們正在為處於低谷的業務做好準備，以便在周期轉變時最大限度地發揮營運槓桿的優勢。

When considering the sequential progression from the first quarter into the second quarter, our truckload segment was able to churn flat cost per mile, flat revenue per mile and a 1% improvement in total miles into a 7% improvement in adjusted operating income, and this includes the $12.5 million second quarter charge for the claims settlement discussed earlier.

考慮到從第一季到第二季的連續進展，我們的卡車裝載部門能夠將每英里的固定成本、每英里的固定收入和總里程的1% 改善轉變為調整後營業收入的7% 改善，並且這包括之前討論過的第二季 1250 萬美元的索賠和解費用。

If not for the claims settlement, the sequential improvement in adjusted operating income would have been 50%.

如果沒有理賠，調整後營業收入將較上季提高 50%。

Now on to slide 6, where we cover our LTL segment.

現在轉到投影片 6，我們將在其中介紹 LTL 部分。

Market conditions in the LTL industry remain much more supportive and in truckload, allowing for steady rate increases through the first half of the year.

零擔產業和卡車運輸的市場狀況仍然更加有利，使得今年上半年費率穩定成長。

Our LTL business grew revenue, excluding fuel surcharge 15.1% year over year as shipments per day increased 8.4%.

我們的零擔業務收入（不含燃油附加費）年增 15.1%，每日出貨量成長 8.4%。

And revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharge, increased 13.4% year over year, while weight per shipment was down 4.7% year over year in the second quarter, it was flat with the first quarter.

第二季每英擔收入（不含燃油附加費）年增13.4%，每艘船重量較去年同期下降4.7%，與第一季持平。

Adjusted operating income grew 8.2% year over year as the adjusted operating ratio of 85.9% was fairly in line year over year.

調整後營業收入年增 8.2%，調整後營業比率為 85.9%，與去年同期基本一致。

Since acquiring AAA Cooper and MME in 2021, we have acquired or assumed leases on 56 additional properties

自 2021 年收購 AAA Cooper 和 MME 以來，我們已收購或承租了另外 56 處房產

We opened 11 new locations during the second quarter and expect to open another 20 terminals by the end of 2024.

我們在第二季開設了 11 個新航站樓，預計到 2024 年底將再開設 20 個航站樓。

Overall to 38 locations planned to open in 2024 will add over 1,000 doors to our network, representing a 22% increase to our door count from the beginning of the year, which we believe will meaningfully impact the reach of our service offering and increase the density of our network.

計劃於 2024 年開設 38 個網點，將為我們的網絡增加 1,000 多個門，意味著我們的門數較年初增加 22%，我們相信這將對我們的服務範圍產生重大影響並增加密度我們的網絡。

We expect these investments will bring opportunities to service additional freight and customers.

我們預計這些投資將帶來為更多貨運和客戶提供服務的機會。

While these new locations initially bring margin headwinds in the form of set-up costs and operational inefficiencies.

雖然這些新地點最初會以設置成本和營運效率低下的形式帶來利潤阻力。

We expect that as the locations continue to scale and particularly as they participate in the next bid cycle, they will help drive growth and margin expansion in the business.

我們預計，隨著這些地點的繼續擴大，特別是當它們參與下一個投標週期時，它們將有助於推動業務的成長和利潤率的擴大。

We remain encouraged by the strong performance within our LTL segment, and we continue to look for both organic and inorganic opportunities to geographically expand our footprint within the LTL market, filling out a super-regional network in a short term and ultimately trading and a net national network will allow us to participate in more freight and enable us to find opportunities to further support our existing truckload customers with LTL capacity.

我們仍然對零擔業務的強勁表現感到鼓舞，我們將繼續尋找有機和無機的機會，在地理上擴大我們在零擔市場的足跡，在短期內完善一個超區域網絡，並最終實現交易和淨額增長。全國網路將使我們能夠參與更多的貨運業務，並使我們能夠找到機會進一步支持我們現有的零擔運輸能力的整車客戶。

Now moving to slide 7, the logistic market, it continues to be difficult as volumes, which are already soft, are now fairly further challenged by a number of shippers allocating more of their business to asset-based providers.

現在轉到幻燈片 7，即物流市場，情況仍然很困難，因為許多托運人將更多業務分配給基於資產的提供商，本已疲軟的數量現在受到進一步挑戰。

Gross margins have been under pressure for a few quarters as purchase transportation costs offered little room for relief beyond these general market dynamics, our logistics business can face additional challenges in a down market because we divert some volume to support our asset business.

幾個季度以來，毛利率一直面臨壓力，因為除了這些一般市場動態之外，採購運輸成本幾乎沒有緩解的空間，我們的物流業務在市場低迷時可能面臨額外的挑戰，因為我們轉移了一些數量來支持我們的資產業務。

However, this headwind should flip to a tailwind when the market turns as the asset division will overflow freight to the logistics business, particularly for our power only service.

然而，當市場轉向時，這種逆風應該會轉變為順風，因為資產劃分將使貨運溢出到物流業務，特別是對於我們的純電力服務。

This relationship with our asset division can create more volatility through a cycle for the logistics business.

與我們的資產部門的這種關係可能會為物流業務的週期帶來更大的波動性。

But it means there is significant amount of runway ahead for our logistics business at this point in the cycle, we remain disciplined on price, which is a headwind to volumes, but allowed our logistics business to sequentially improve profitability in the second quarter, while load count remained stable.

但這意味著我們的物流業務在周期的這個階段還有很大的發展空間，我們仍然對價格保持嚴格，這對銷量來說是一個阻力，但允許我們的物流業務在第二季度連續提高盈利能力，同時裝載計數保持穩定。

Revenue increased 11.8% year over year, driven by an increase in revenue per load as low count was flat, reflecting the inclusion of use Xpress in the current quarter, which offset the 25% year-over-year decline in load count in the legacy business.

營收年增 11.8%，主要得益於每次負載收入的增長，因為低計數持平，反映出本季度納入了 use Xpress，抵消了傳統負載計數同比下降 25% 的影響商業。

After first turning modestly positive last quarter, revenue per load increased 10.8% year over year in the second quarter, representing a 4.6% increase from the previous quarter, the year-over-year increase in revenue per load is largely driven by the inclusion of US Xpress logistics in the current quarter as it has a different business mix.

繼上季首次小幅正轉後，第二季每負載收入年增 10.8%，環比增長 4.6%，每負載收入同比增長主要是由於納入了US Xpress 物流在本季度擁有不同的業務組合。

We continue to leverage our power and capabilities to complement our asset businesses, build a broader and more diversified freight portfolio and to enhance the returns on our capital assets.

我們繼續利用我們的實力和能力來補充我們的資產業務，建立更廣泛和更多元化的貨運組合，並提高我們的資本資產的回報。

I'll now turn it over to Andrew Hess, for slide 8.

現在我將把投影片 8 交給 Andrew Hess。

Thanks, Adam.

謝謝，亞當。

In our intermodal business, we grew load count sequentially by 10.8% while maintaining stable revenue per load as compared to the first quarter, which helped improve the operating ratio by 380 basis points over the first quarter.

在多式聯運業務中，我們的載貨量環比增長了10.8%，同時每載貨收入與第一季相比保持穩定，這有助於改善第一季的營運比率380個基點。

On a year-over-year basis, the operating ratio improved by 460 basis points.

營運比率較去年同期改善460個基點。

Revenue decreased 6.5% year over year, driven by a 4.9% decrease in revenue per load and a 1.7% decrease in load count.

營收年減 6.5%，原因是每次負載收入下降 4.9%，負載數量減少 1.7%。

The year-over-year decline in revenue per load narrowed from recent quarters.

每負載收入的年減幅較最近幾季收窄。

As we have now lapped the loss of project revenue in the prior year.

因為我們現在已經彌補了去年的專案收入損失。

We anticipate sequential growth volume growth into the second half based on progress in the bid season, which should help us execute our strategy of diversifying our business mix, building density, reducing empty moves and reducing costs.

我們預計，根據投標季節的進展，下半年銷售將實現環比成長，這將有助於我們執行業務組合多元化、增加密度、減少空置和降低成本的策略。

We expect progress in these areas should make this business modestly profitable for the fourth quarter.

我們預計這些領域的進展將使該業務在第四季度適度獲利。

Now on to slide 9.

現在轉到投影片 9。

Slide 9 illustrates our all other segments.

幻燈片 9 說明了我們所有其他部分。

This category includes support services provided to our customers, independent contractors and third party carriers, such as equipment, sales and rentals equipment, leasing, warehousing activities, insurance and maintenance.

此類別包括向我們的客戶、獨立承包商和第三方承運商提供的支援服務，例如設備、銷售和租賃設備、租賃、倉儲活動、保險和維護。

Our other segments also include certain corporate expenses such as the $11.7 million of quarterly amortization of intangibles related to the 2017 merger between Knight and Swift and certain acquisitions.

我們的其他部門還包括某些公司費用，例如與 2017 年 Knight 和 Swift 合併以及某些收購相關的 1,170 萬美元的無形資產季度攤銷。

For the quarter, revenue declined 47.5% year over year, largely as a result of winding down our third party insurance business in the first quarter.

本季營收年減 47.5%，主要是因為我們在第一季關閉了第三方保險業務。

The $3.9 million operating income within our all other segment is the first operating profit for this category in seven quarters and was primarily driven by the warehousing and equipment leasing businesses.

我們所有其他部門的 390 萬美元營業收入是該類別七個季度以來首次實現營業利潤，主要由倉儲和設備租賃業務推動。

On slide 10, we have outlined our guidance and key assumptions, which are also stated in the earnings release because of the timing of an inflection has proven, especially difficult to predict during this cycle.

在投影片 10 中，我們概述了我們的指導和關鍵假設，這些指導和關鍵假設也在收益發布中進行了說明，因為事實證明，在這個週期中，拐點的時機特別難以預測。

We are not incorporating an inflection in marketing conditions for the purposes of these forecasts, but rather are basing these ranges on expected seasonality and the continuation of existing market conditions, similar to what we have felt in the second quarter and into July thus far.

出於這些預測的目的，我們並沒有考慮行銷條件的變化，而是根據預期的季節性和現有市場條件的延續來確定這些範圍，這與我們在第二季和迄今為止的7 月的感受類似。

Based on these assumptions, we expect our adjusted EPS for the third quarter will be in the range of $0.31 to $0.35, and our adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter will be in the range of $0.32 to $0.36. Key assumptions underpinning this guidance include the following, for our truckload segment, revenue up slightly sequentially in the third quarter and again in the fourth quarter with sequential improvements in operating margins each quarter resulting in adjusted operating ratio steadily improving into the low to mid-90s.

基於這些假設，我們預計第三季調整後每股盈餘將在 0.31 美元至 0.35 美元之間，第四季調整後每股盈餘將在 0.32 美元至 0.36 美元之間。支持該指引的關鍵假設包括以下內容，對於我們的卡車運輸部門，第三季度和第四季度的收入環比略有增長，每個季度的營業利潤率環比提高，導致調整後的營業比率穩步提高到90 年代中低。

Tractor count down modestly sequentially in the third quarter before stabilizing for the fourth quarter, miles per tractor increasing low single digit percent year over year in the third and fourth quarters as prior year comparisons begin to include US Xpress.

拖拉機倒數在第三季度連續小幅下降，然後在第四季度趨於穩定，第三和第四季度每台拖拉機的行駛里程同比增長較低的個位數百分比，因為去年的比較開始包括 US Xpress。

For our LTL segment, low double digit percent growth in revenue, excluding fuel surcharge year-over-year as shipments count in the third and fourth quarters improves mid-single digit percent year over year.

對於我們的零擔業務，收入成長幅度較低，不包括燃油附加費，因為第三季和第四季的出貨量年增了中個位數百分比。

And revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharge, improves high single digit percent year over year and adjusted operating ratios in the mid to high 80s as a result of normal seasonal progression and as we continue expand our network.

每英擔收入（不包括燃油附加費）同比提高了高個位數百分比，並且由於正常的季節性變化以及我們不斷擴大網絡，調整了運營比率在 80 年代中至高位。

For our Logistics segment, both count sequentially growing mid-single digit percent in the third quarter and stabilizing into the fourth quarter with adjusted operating ratios in the mid-90s, for intermodal load count sequentially growing high single digit percent in the third-quarter and stabilizing into the fourth-quarter with an operating ratio modestly below break-even by the fourth-quarter in all other segments before including the $11.7 million of quarterly intangible amortization, we expect operating income of approximately $10 million to $15 million for the third-quarter and modestly negative for the fourth-quarter, as some of the services experienced a typical seasonal slowdown.

對於我們的物流部門，第三季度的貨運量連續增長中個位數百分比，並在第四季度穩定下來，調整後的營運比率在90 年代中期，多式聯運負載數量在第三季度連續增長高個位數百分比，在包括 1,170 萬美元的季度無形攤銷之前，我們預計第三季度的營業收入約為 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元由於某些服務經歷了典型的季節性放緩，第四季度的增長率略有下降。

Additionally, we project equipment gains to be in the range of $5 million to $10 million per quarter.

此外，我們預計每季設備收益將在 500 萬美元至 1,000 萬美元之間。

Net interest expense to be modestly sequentially, up modestly sequentially in the third quarter and fourth quarter.

淨利息支出將環比小幅增長，第三季和第四季將小幅增長。

In summary, we project truckload operating income to improve sequentially into the third and fourth quarters.

綜上所述，我們預計第三季和第四季的整車營業收入將持續改善。

We also expect the normal seasonal step-down in LTL earnings and activities and within our other segment in the fourth quarter, which will largely offset the projected ramp up in the truckload profits.

我們也預計第四季度零擔收入和活動以及我們其他部門的正常季節性下降，這將在很大程度上抵消整車利潤的預期成長。

Given this depressed current truckload earnings level at this point in the cycle, our expected adjusted EPS ranges are based on the current truckload LTL and general market conditions.

鑑於當前卡車裝載收入水準在周期中的這一點低迷，我們預期的調整後每股收益範圍基於當前卡車零擔和一般市場狀況。

Recent trends and the current beliefs, assumptions and expectations of management.

最近的趨勢以及管理層當前的信念、假設和期望。

Actual results may differ.

實際結果可能有所不同。

While we can't drive the timing of any change in the market dynamics we believe we have positioned our business to enter a difficult market and to be prepared to rapidly improve margins and cash flow when we begin to experience an inflection in the market similar to our performance in previous cycles.

雖然我們無法推動市場動態發生任何變化的時機，但我們相信我們已經將我們的業務定位為進入一個困難的市場，並準備好在我們開始經歷類似於以下情況的市場變化時迅速提高利潤和現金流。

In closing, we are compelled by the outsized runway ahead of us for improving earnings of both our legacy and newly acquired businesses driving significant free cash flow through cycles and leveraging a disciplined approach to deploying capital to further increase the capital generating power of our company through successive cycles.

最後，我們被眼前的巨大跑道所吸引，以提高我們的傳統和新收購業務的收益，在整個週期中推動大量的自由現金流，並利用嚴格的方法來部署資本，以通過以下方式進一步提高我們公司的資本生成能力：連續的循環。

That concludes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

Before I turn it over for questions, I want to remind everyone to keep it to one per participant.

在我將其交給問題之前，我想提醒大家將其保留為每個參與者一個。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

We will now open the line for questions.

我們現在將開通提問熱線。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session.

女士們、先生們，我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

克里斯‧韋瑟比，富國銀行。

Your line is now open.

您的線路現已開通。

Yeah, hi, thanks.

是的，嗨，謝謝。

Good afternoon, guys.

下午好，夥計們。

And maybe just on the truckload outlook as you think about 3Q and then 4Q in particular, I guess you noted the seasonal improvement we saw in the second quarter.

也許只是在考慮第三季和第四季的卡車裝載量前景時，我想您注意到了我們在第二季看到的季節性改善。

I guess how close are we getting back to sort of that relationship between supply and demand?

我想我們距離恢復供需關係還有多遠？

And I guess as you think about the third quarter.

我想正如你對第三季的看法一樣。

What is included from a seasonal perspective in the outlook.

從季節角度來看，展望中包含哪些內容。

I guess we're just trying to make sure or to get a sense of how you guys are thinking about a potential ramp or is it really more of the same until we get to a better supply demand environment?

我想我們只是想確定或了解你們如何考慮潛在的成長，或者在我們達到更好的供需環境之前，情況是否真的更加相同？

Yes, I'll take that, Chris.

是的，我會接受的，克里斯。

Good to hear from you, it does feel like we're that we're getting a lot closer to a balanced market.

很高興收到您的來信，我們確實感覺我們離市場平衡越來越近了。

And what would lead us to that is just the seasonal uptick we saw as we came to a close of the second quarter and got into the to the holiday for the July 4, where we saw many of our customers somewhat trying to secure additional capacity where their routing guides were starting to fail.

導致我們出現這種情況的原因是我們在第二季末和 7 月 4 日假期期間看到的季節性上升，我們看到許多客戶在某種程度上試圖確保額外的產能，他們的路線指南開始失效。

We saw rejections pick up on some of the third-party data as well as our own data.

我們發現一些第三方資料以及我們自己的資料遭到拒絕。

And that's one of the first indications that is that the supply chain does not have enough slack into it to absorb some incremental demand.

這是供應鏈沒有足夠的餘裕來吸收一些增量需求的首要跡象之一。

And then, you know, as we noted in the prepared comments that we did see a little bit of a slowdown following the holiday, which is typical and we had to expect that to start to ramp up as we get closer to the holiday season.

然後，你知道，正如我們在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，我們確實看到假期後出現了一點放緩，這是典型的，我們不得不預計，隨著假期的臨近，這種情況會開始加速。

And so I think when we think about the guidance for Q3 and Q4, we'd expect to see in an improving environment, which we think we're in, and the bottom is behind us that the OR would see some progression.

因此，我認為，當我們考慮第三季和第四季的指導時，我們期望看到我們所處的環境有所改善，並且底部已經過去，OR 會看到一些進展。

And in terms of improvement from Q2 to Q3, and that could be in the 100 basis points, 150 basis points range.

就第二季到第三季的改善而言，可能會在 100 個基點、150 個基點範圍內。

And then from a Q3 to Q4, kind of a similar range of could be 150 basis points to 200 basis points.

然後從第三季度到第四季度，類似的範圍可能是 150 個基點到 200 個基點。

And if you look at the how especially from Q3 to Q4, how that's trended over the cycles over the last probably six years, we've probably averaged around close to just shy of 200 basis points improvements in the OR from third to fourth.

如果你看看特別是從第三季度到第四季度的情況，以及過去可能六年的周期趨勢，我們可能會發現，從第三季度到第四季度，OR 值平均提高了近 200 個基點。

That's certainly an environment where we're there's a lot less supply than demand, that number could be larger closer to 400 basis points.

在這種環境下，供應肯定遠低於需求，這個數字可能會更大，接近 400 個基點。

And then in an environment where we see too much supply, you could see that number even coming off from third to fourth.

然後，在我們看到供應過多的環境中，您甚至可以看到該數字從第三下降到第四。

So we're projecting somewhat of a kind of a normal type of uplift.

因此，我們預期會出現某種正常類型的提升。

It's just coming off a lower base, obviously.

顯然，它只是從較低的基數開始。

And so we're going to have a lot of work to do to improve those margins kind of over time.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將需要做很多工作來提高這些利潤率。

But I do feel based on the way our volumes have trended and regional rejections and some other data points that when we come across the next bid season, that we should be in a position where rates should be going up across the board into the next bid season.

但我確實認為，根據我們的交易量趨勢、地區拒絕情況以及其他一些數據點，當我們遇到下一個投標季節時，我們應該處於這樣的位置：在下一個投標中，費率應該全面上升季節。

It's just a matter of by how much and that will be really determined by what we see in the fourth quarter in terms of the acute demands from our customers or maybe lack thereof.

這只是多少的問題，而這將真正取決於我們在第四季度看到的客戶的迫切需求或可能缺乏的需求。

But I think there's really not a scenario today where I see rates going down in the next bid cycle, if you want to think of where we landed here in the most recent kind of tail end of the bids.

但我認為，如果你想想想我們在最近的投標尾聲中所處的位置，我認為今天確實不會出現下一個投標週期中費率下降的情況。

There's still we still felt pressure from certain customers to reduce our rates and some that in almost double digit levels.

我們仍然感受到某些客戶要求我們降低費率的壓力，有些客戶的費率幾乎達到了兩位數。

But clearly we don't have that to give now maybe there's some private companies that maybe don't have the same disciplines as us to be really that would be willing to sacrifice that rate.

但顯然我們現在沒有那麼多的錢可以給，也許有些私人公司可能沒有與我們相同的紀律，真的願意犧牲這個費率。

But clearly, we couldn't I don't think some of our public peers can as well.

但顯然，我們做不到，我認為我們的一些公共同行也做不到。

And so we've held the line.

所以我們一直堅守陣線。

And I think what we found is we were still awarded a healthy amount of the business that we bid on even at small increases when customers were looking for a big decreases.

我認為我們發現，當客戶尋求大幅降價時，即使價格小幅上漲，我們仍然獲得了相當數量的競標業務。

So I think they're understanding that the market's coming closer to balance and that that they probably need to begin to secure quality capacity and reduce their reliance on maybe brokers or smaller carriers.

因此，我認為他們明白市場正在接近平衡，他們可能需要開始確保優質容量並減少對經紀人或小型承運人的依賴。

And so we expect that trend to just play out, but it just could take longer than that.

因此，我們預計這種趨勢將會出現，但可能需要更長的時間。

Maybe some had hoped, but hey, things can move fast in this space.

也許有些人曾經希望，但是嘿，這個領域的事情可以快速發展。

We know that it's hard to forecast and predict.

我們知道預測和預測是很困難的。

And so we're kind of cautious on trying to predict the inflection because it's been probably been saying 6 months for pay 12 months now and so we're taking more of a cautious approach in and expecting just seasonality to play out like we've been seeing.

因此，我們在嘗試預測拐點時持謹慎態度，因為現在可能已經說 6 個月工資為 12 個月，因此我們採取更加謹慎的態度，並期望季節性因素會像我們之前那樣發揮作用。到。

And then maybe if that moves more rapidly, maybe there's some upside to that increasingly

如果這種情況發展得更快，也許會有一些好處

(multiple speakers)

（多個發言者）

And just a point of clarification there.

這裡需要澄清一點。

As you think about that progression, does that get you kind of back to flattish maybe give or take versus the fourth quarter of last year from a profit perspective in truckload?

當您考慮這項進展時，從卡車運輸的利潤角度來看，這是否會讓您回到去年第四季的持平狀態？

Yeah, I think there's probably some opportunity for truckload to be a bit better than it was last year from a profit standpoint, I think you know what the we have to consider when you're looking at our overall business.

是的，我認為從利潤的角度來看，卡車裝載量可能有機會比去年好一點，我想你知道當你審視我們的整體業務時我們必須考慮什麼。

Now the composition has changed quite a bit since maybe 2018, 2019 periods that you might be comparing against because you've layered on LTL and that has maybe different seasonality than truckload.

自 2018 年、2019 年以來，現在的組成已經發生了很大變化，您可能會與這些時期進行比較，因為您已經對零擔進行了分層，並且其季節性可能與卡車裝載不同。

And then we also have in our all other segments, some non-trucking businesses, particularly our warehousing and some of the equipment and leasing business that it maybe works counter seasonal, where you see a lot of strength in the first three quarters and maybe a lot less in the fourth quarter.

然後，我們在所有其他細分市場中也有一些非貨運業務，特別是我們的倉儲以及一些可能反季節的設備和租賃業務，您會看到前三個季度的強勁勢頭，也許第四季度少了很多。

So some of that offsets some of the strength you would see in truckload.

因此，其中一些抵消了您在卡車裝載中看到的一些強度。

I mean, we like that, that would show more consistency over time.

我的意思是，我們喜歡這樣，隨著時間的推移，這會表現出更多的一致性。

It's just I think you may not see the same kind of lift sequentially from Q3 to Q4.

只是我認為從第三季度到第四季度您可能不會看到相同的提升。

As you would have typically seen when we were primarily a truckload company.

正如您在我們主要是卡車運輸公司時通常會看到的那樣。

Chris, maybe I will add an point, we expect yeah, I think roughly what you said is right.

克里斯，也許我會補充一點，我們希望是的，我認為您所說的話大致是正確的。

But we expect USX to start contributing income, which it wasn't doing last fourth quarter.

但我們預計 USX 將開始貢獻收入，但上個第四季它並沒有這樣做。

So I think we expect that to happen here in the back half, and it could it's going to be it's a process to get where we need to be on US Xpress, but there will be a contribution in our view in the fourth quarter and then maybe one other one other point that another indicator that we watch that we think has some meaning is that we've watched it occur over the last few months.

所以我認為我們預計這會在後半段發生，這可能是一個在 US Xpress 上達到我們需要的目標的過程，但我們認為第四季度將會做出貢獻，然後也許另一點是，我們認為有一定意義的另一個指標是我們在過去幾個月看到了它的發生。

The unplanned freight right now is not for us has not been secured and at a discount any longer earlier in the year, we saw backup frame or spot freight that we were securing was going at a discount to our primary rates not over the more recent period where we're seeing that flipped and we're seeing a small premium on those unplanned, no demand so it's just another indicator that it's going to be a process, but we are seeing our movement in that direction that's encouraging

現在計劃外的運費不適合我們，在今年早些時候已經不再有折扣，我們看到我們所獲得的備用框架或現貨運運費在最近一段時間內比我們的主要費率有折扣我們看到這種情況發生了逆轉，我們看到那些計劃外、沒有需求的產品有少量溢價，所以這只是另一個指標，表明這將是一個過程，但我們看到我們朝這個方向發展，這是令人鼓舞的

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

肯‧霍克斯特，美國銀行。

Your line is now open.

您的線路現已開通。

Hi, great.

嗨，太好了。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Hi, Adam, Andrew and Brad.

嗨，亞當、安德魯和布拉德。

So I guess just a little surprised given the commentary of improving backdrop.

因此，考慮到背景改善的評論，我想我有點驚訝。

Maybe just as we look at spot rates on the load boards kind of near decade lows, not just pulling back seasonally, but just so weak, maybe you can help us, I kind of interpret why that is.

也許就像我們看到負載板上的即期匯率接近十年低點一樣，不僅僅是季節性回落，而且是如此疲軟，也許你可以幫助我們，我有點解釋為什麼會這樣。

And then also, we saw a lot of freight come into the West Coast, but then we're not really seeing kind of a flow through of that into the system.

然後，我們也看到大量貨物進入西海岸，但我們並沒有真正看到這些貨物流入系統。

Is there I know, is there a rebuild of inventory somewhere around the chain or is that prepped and ready to go as we go into peak season, giving you maybe more confidence as you move into the into the fall and we work through those issues?

我是否知道，供應鏈中的某個地方是否有庫存重建，或者當我們進入旺季時，庫存是否已經準備好並準備就緒，當您進入秋季時，我們可能會解決這些問題，從而給您帶來更多信心？

Thanks.

謝謝。

What was the first part of the question, Ken?

肯，問題的第一部分是什麼？

It was just surprised on the commentary of the return to seasonality.

只是對回歸季節性的評論感到驚訝。

I know you said it pulls back at this point in July yet on some of the load boards, we're seeing kind of spot rates near decade lows, not just low decade lows in terms of where they are on the boards and that just kind of makes it seem like the environment is even kind of weak like it COVID weak in terms of But demand out there.

我知道你說它在7 月的這個時候回落，但在一些負載板上，我們看到即期利率接近十年低點，而不僅僅是就其在板上的位置而言的十年低點，這只是一種這使得環境看起來甚至有點像新冠疫情一樣疲軟，但就需求而言。

So I'm just wondering what why the differentiation of your confidence and looking forward and what at least the spot rates on load boards are suggesting?

所以我只是想知道為什麼您的信心和展望存在差異，以及至少負載板上的即期匯率表明了什麼？

Yeah, I think you know, I think we have it may be a different purview of the market because the different brands that we have and sizable brands that operate in different networks.

是的，我想你知道，我認為我們可能擁有不同的市場權限，因為我們擁有不同的品牌以及在不同網路中經營的大型品牌。

And so we would look at a combination of our own data as well as what we see on third party data, what are the metrics we would focus on would be the number of rejections that that the industry has seen and that picked up quite a bit hit a level we haven't seen probably since 2022 during July 4, and it came back down, but not now back to where it was, it actually levelled out at levels that were similar to what we saw during Memorial Day.

因此，我們將結合我們自己的數據以及我們在第三方數據中看到的數據，我們將重點關注的指標是行業已經看到的並且數量有所增加的拒絕數量7 月4 日期間達到了自2022年以來我們可能從未見過的水平，然後又回落了，但現在還沒有回到原來的水平，它實際上達到了與我們在陣亡將士紀念日期間看到的水平相似的水平。

So that I think that tells us still that it's not as easy to find capacity for some of our customers.

因此，我認為這仍然告訴我們，為我們的某些客戶找到容量並不那麼容易。

We also look at the different projects that we have ongoing and these are project, as Andrew alluded to, that, that pay a premium.

我們也關注我們正在進行的不同項目，正如安德魯所提到的，這些項目需要支付溢價。

And although some of them have scaled back since the holiday, we still have several ongoing throughout all of our larger trucking companies.

儘管自假期以來，其中一些活動已經縮減，但我們所有大型貨運公司仍在進行一些活動。

So we've got US Xpress, we've got Swift.

所以我們有 US Xpress，我們有 Swift。

We've got nine that are still participating in premium type freight where customers need help, and they're securing capacity to do so.

我們有九家仍在參與客戶需要幫助的高級貨運服務，並且他們正在確保這樣做的能力。

So those are maybe some of the indications that we see in our own business rather than just looking at third party data.

因此，這些可能是我們在自己的業務中看到的一些跡象，而不僅僅是查看第三方資料。

And then also just discussions that we have with customers.

然後我們也與客戶進行討論。

And it feels like many of them feel comfortable with where they're at from an inventory standpoint.

從庫存的角度來看，他們中的許多人對自己所處的位置感到滿意。

And I think even surveys that have been done would illustrate that as well and that many feel like, yeah, the market is in balance.

我認為即使已經完成的調查也能說明這一點，而且許多人感覺，是的，市場處於平衡狀態。

And, hey, there's probably some lift that we're going to see in the fourth quarter.

而且，嘿，我們可能會在第四季度看到一些提升。

So that's just some commentary is kind of anecdotal, but those are some large shippers that are that we're having discussions with as we've tried to plan out our fourth quarter now, I still think there's a little bit of unknown of what that could look like in the fourth quarter because normally you have discussions around those plans in August, maybe even early September, where we start talking about potential projects or tiered pricing or where they have may need to have some surge needs.

所以這只是一些評論，有點軼事，但我們正在與一些大型托運商進行討論，因為我們現在正在嘗試計劃我們的第四季度，我仍然認為還有一些未知的事情可能看起來像在第四季度，因為通常你會在八月，甚至九月初圍繞這些計劃進行討論，我們開始討論潛在的項目或分級定價，或者他們可能需要一些激增的需求。

So I think there's more to come there, but we would certainly feel better about the market today than we would have certainly three months ago or six months ago.

因此，我認為還會有更多的事情發生，但我們對今天的市場的感覺肯定會比三個月前或六個月前更好。

And I think your other question was on was it truckload or West Coast?

我想你的另一個問題是卡車裝載還是西海岸裝載？

Yeah, the West Coast volumes that came in.

是的，西海岸的捲進來了。

Yeah, I think you know, we've seen this is talking with maybe different rail partners that we have as well that there has been a surge in the West Coast and I think a lot of that volume has moved on the international containers versus the transloading to truckload.

是的，我想你知道，我們已經看到，我們正在與可能不同的鐵路合作夥伴進行交談，西海岸的運輸量激增，我認為其中很大一部分已經轉移到國際集裝箱上，而不是通過國際集裝箱運輸。

But I do feel like as volume starts to pick up and truckload capacity becomes a little more scarce that we'll have some need to transload.

但我確實覺得，隨著貨運量開始回升，卡車裝載能力變得更加稀缺，我們將需要轉運。

I think that starts to convert to truckload.

我認為這開始轉變為卡車裝載量。

But right now it does feel like a lot of that's going on the international containers boat.

但現在確實感覺很多事情都發生在國際貨櫃船上。

But when there's a need for those containers and as they start to pick up, they're going to have to transload and that could go intermodal or it could go truckload.

但是，當需要這些貨櫃並且開始提貨時，它們將不得不轉運，可以採用聯運，也可以採用卡車裝載。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧尚克，摩根士丹利。

Your line is now open.

您的線路現已開通。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for everyone.

謝謝大家。

A couple of follow ups here.

這裡有一些後續行動。

Adam, you said, obviously thanks for all the data that shows that you're seeing signs of improvement.

亞當，你說，顯然感謝所有顯示你看到改善跡象的數據。

But you also said that you don't think this is a trend just yet.

但您也表示，您認為這還不是一種趨勢。

So what would you need to see you believe that this is real like is it some particular data set?

那麼，您需要什麼才能讓您相信這是真實的，就像它是某個特定的資料集一樣？

Is it continuation, but just time is at a certain level of price, kind of what makes you think that this is going to be a continued trend.

它是否會持續，但只是時間處於一定的價格水平，這會讓你認為這將是一個持續的趨勢。

And also on the LTL side, very impressive board growth there organically.

在零擔運輸方面，董事會的有機成長也非常令人印象深刻。

Are you shifting your mix between organic and potential inorganic growth there, given that it's taking a little bit of time to consummate that deal?

鑑於完成這項交易需要一點時間，您是否會在有機成長和潛在無機成長之間進行調整？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So maybe I'll hit the LTLs, we're certainly excited about the opportunity that we had to pick up some properties due to the yellow bankruptcy.

所以也許我會選擇零擔，我們當然對由於黃色破產而不得不收購一些房產的機會感到興奮。

And so we've got team hard at work, rolling those terminals out and building volumes in those markets.

因此，我們的團隊正在努力工作，推出這些終端並在這些市場上增加銷售量。

And it does take a little time.

這確實需要一點時間。

And so it creates a little bit of a headwind from a margin standpoint because of the costs associated with that.

因此，從利潤的角度來看，由於與之相關的成本，它造成了一點阻力。

But we feel like having those markets opened up, allowing us to participate in spot activity in the near term.

但我們希望這些市場能夠開放，讓我們能夠在短期內參與現貨活動。

And then as we get into the next bid season, I think pick up some additional volume that get those terminals back to more of an optimal level really helps us grow from a top line, but also from a margin perspective.

然後，當我們進入下一個投標季節時，我認為增加一些額外的交易量，使這些終端恢復到最佳水平，確實有助於我們從收入和利潤的角度實現成長。

And so I think we've got a lot of work ahead of us on that front.

所以我認為我們在這方面還有很多工作要做。

I think we've been very open about also wanting to grow inorganically.

我認為我們對於無機成長也持非常開放的態度。

And clearly, we have the Southwest and the Northeast as areas where we have a need.

顯然，西南和東北地區是我們有需求的地區。

And I think we've been you know, we haven't done a transaction since MME in 2021.

我想我們自 2021 年 MME 以來就沒有進行過任何交易。

So we feel like the next 12 months that I think we'd be disappointed if we weren't able to get a transaction at least one transaction done to help fill in some of the gaps in those markets.

因此，我們認為在接下來的 12 個月內，如果我們無法完成至少一筆交易來幫助填補這些市場的一些空白，我們將會感到失望。

So we think we can do both.

所以我們認為我們可以兩者兼得。

Ravi, we're going to continue down the organic fronts.

拉維，我們將繼續沿著有機前緣前進。

And when we find the right partner and it has the right leadership and it's going to be the right fit.

當我們找到合適的合作夥伴並且擁有合適的領導力時，它就會成為合適的人選。

And the organization will be very quick to pull the trigger on that because we believe building out a nationwide LTL has a lot of benefits, not just from increased profitability and service for our customers.

該組織將很快採取行動，因為我們相信建立全國範圍的零擔運輸有很多好處，而不僅僅是提高盈利能力和為客戶提供服務。

But also I think there's a lot of synergies that can align with our truckload business as well.

但我也認為有很多協同效應也可以與我們的卡車業務結合。

I think, Brad, you have some data.

我想，布拉德，你有一些數據。

I'll just going to add, Ravi, that to get to the growth targets that we want to hit in the time line.

拉維，我只想補充一點，為了實現我們希望在時間表內實現的成長目標。

We want to hit them.

我們想打擊他們。

It's going to take both the organic and the inorganic running in parallel with the need to fill up those regional gaps in the Southwest and the Northeast.

有機和無機的發展將同時進行，並需要填補西南和東北地區的區域空白。

The puzzle pieces you're left with are going to be regional.

你剩下的拼圖將是區域性的。

And so if you consider the sizes of the likely available targets out there it's going to take organic and complement to inorganic transactions to really fill that out and hit our growth targets.

因此，如果您考慮可能的可用目標的規模，那麼將需要有機交易和對無機交易的補充，才能真正滿足這一目標並實現我們的成長目標。

So it's not an either or it's both.

所以這不是一個或兩者兼而有之。

Okay.

好的。

What was your guidance again.(multiple speakers)

您的指導又是什麼？

And the first one was just what do you need to see you on the data to believe that this is real.

第一個是你需要在數據上看到什麼才能相信這是真實的。

Yeah, I think, Ravi, I think we just need to start to need to see how things play out in the third quarter, if we do, in fact, see the seasonal uptick as you get probably to the back half of August and really into September, then I think we would have more confidence that this is maybe a trend that we would expect to continue into Q4 and lead to a much more favorable bid season into next year.

是的，我認為，拉維，我認為我們只需要開始看看第三季的情況如何，如果我們確實看到季節性上升，因為你可能會到八月下旬，真的進入9 月，那麼我認為我們會更有信心，這可能是我們預計會持續到第四季度的趨勢，並導致明年的投標季節更加有利。

But again, you have the little lull that you see following the fourth slide that is normal, and we just see to see that that builds back.

但同樣，在第四張幻燈片之後你會看到一點平靜，這是正常的，我們只是看到這種情況會恢復。

And then also just the conversations we're having with customers and then helping us understand what their needs are.

然後我們也與客戶進行對話，幫助我們了解他們的需求。

So we don't want to be too quick to call it, but I think we're cautiously optimistic that certainly the trough behind us and we're on our way to building back.

因此，我們不想太快做出決定，但我認為我們持謹慎樂觀的態度，認為低谷已經過去，我們正在重建之路上。

Andrew, you want to add to this?

安德魯，你想補充嗎？

I'd say one other wonderful thing.

我想說另一件美妙的事。

We pay a lot of attention to that, I think the meaning, particularly as we are so mixed signals across our different brand is when we see freight behaving outside of seasonal patterns.

我們對此非常關注，我認為這意味著，特別是當我們看到貨運運行為超出季節性模式時，我們不同品牌的訊號如此混合。

In other words, we see strong freight when it shouldn't be seasonally and that that's an indication for us of is there something different.

換句話說，我們看到了不應該是季節性的強勁貨運，這向我們表明是否存在不同的情況。

So we'll pay attention to the week following the seasonal patterns, but also where is it strong when it shouldn't be?

因此，我們將關注季節性模式之後的一周，但也會關注在不應該強勁的情況下它在哪裡強勁？

And we've got a lot of signals to that tell us when that's happening.

我們有很多訊號告訴我們這種情況何時發生。

And so that will be one indicator for us.

因此，這將成為我們的一個指標。

Understand.

理解。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

Thanks, Ravi.

謝謝，拉維。

Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的斯科特小組。

Your line is now open.

您的線路現已開通。

Hi, thanks, good afternoon, guys.

嗨，謝謝，大家下午好。

So I wanted to just clarify something with respect to the guidance.

所以我想澄清一些有關指南的內容。

So it looks like you're assuming a much higher tax rate now.

所以看起來你現在假設的稅率要高很多。

And so is that right?

那麼這是正確的嗎？

And why and assuming that we're looking at this right, then, are you effectively sort of raising the third quarter like operating guidance?

為什麼並假設我們正確看待這一點，那麼，您是否有效地提高了第三季的營運指引？

I just want to make sure we're thinking about this.

我只是想確保我們正在考慮這個問題。

Right.

正確的。

And then, Adam, can you just clarify, you also said that truckload margin should improve 100 basis points to 150 basis points Q2 to Q3 is that based on the reported number or the adjusted if we exclude the impact of the claim?

然後，Adam，您能否澄清一下，您還說卡車裝載利潤率應提高 100 個基點至 150 個基點 Q2 至 Q3 是基於報告的數字還是在我們排除索賠影響的情況下調整後的數字？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

So on the tax rate, Scott, maybe without I don't want to get too technical here, you know, taxes some temporary and permanent differences that drive the effective tax rate.

因此，關於稅率，斯科特，也許沒有我不想在這裡講得太技術性，你知道，對一些推動有效稅率的臨時和永久差異徵稅。

When you have lower operating income, those permanent differences have a bigger impact on your tax rate.

當您的營業收入較低時，這些永久性差異會對您的稅率產生更大的影響。

So because the operating income is lower than it was the previous year, that's effectively raised our effective tax rate.

因此，由於營業收入低於上一年，這實際上提高了我們的有效稅率。

I think as we see margins build operating income improve, which would expect for next year, we believe that tax rate would come back to a more normalized level when you think about Q3 and now applying a higher tax rate.

我認為，隨著我們看到利潤率不斷提高，營業收入將在明年有所改善，我們相信，當您考慮第三季並現在採用更高的稅率時，稅率將回到更正常化的水平。

I do feel like we've now forecasted a little bit stronger than we would we would have last quarter.

我確實覺得我們現在的預測比上季的預測更強。

And that helps offset the higher tax rate that we're now forecasting.

這有助於抵消我們現在預測的更高稅率。

Sorry to make you put your CFO back on there.

抱歉讓你把你的財務長放回那裡。

But and then just last question on the truckload or comment, just the sequential.

但是，最後一個關於卡車裝載量或評論的問題，只是順序。

Yeah, I think you could see a close to 100 basis points on the copy adjusted operating ratio, excluding the claim.

是的，我認為您可以看到複製調整後的營運比率接近 100 個基點（不包括索賠）。

What gets baked in there in the second quarter.

第二季度會發生什麼事。

But I think, Scott, if you're asking is that based on the claim being in or out of the adjusted or so has reported that adjusted OR with the claim in there still leaves room for the type of step-up, I guess I could guess so.

但我認為，斯科特，如果你問的是，基於調整後或不在調整後的索賠，那麼已報告調整後的或其中的索賠仍然為升級類型留下了空間，我想我可以猜到是這樣。

Yeah, you adjust that clean out, there's still room for 100 basis points improvement Scott.

是的，你調整清理，仍然有 100 個基點改進的空間，斯科特。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們，夥計們。

Tom Wadewitz, UBS, Your line is now open.

Tom Wadewitz，瑞銀集團，您的路線現已開通。

Yeah, good afternoon.

是的，下午好。

Wanted to ask a little bit about like the pricing assumption.

想詢問一些有關定價假設的問題。

So your revenue per loaded mile ex-fuel, 3Q, 4Q, are you thinking that that will it start to move up where you think that's kind of flattish?

那麼，您的每裝載英里收入（不含燃料），第三季度，第四季度，您是否認為它會開始上升到您認為持平的水平？

And what are you doing in terms of like a percent of fleet in the spot market and kind of how you want that to be positioned if you gain some more confidence in the cyclical upturn.

如果您對週期性好轉更有信心，那麼您在現貨市場上佔船隊的百分比方面正在做什麼，以及您希望如何定位它。

Looking out a few quarters?

看看幾個季度？

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

So I think when we think about pricing, Tom, we just see some sequential improve and not a large change.

所以我認為，湯姆，當我們考慮定價時，我們只是看到了一些連續的改進，而不是很大的變化。

It could just be a 1% or 2% as you go from Q2 to Q3 and Q3 to Q4, probably a larger lift in Q4, assuming that you have longer seasonality at play in Q4 and so when we think about our spot to contract relationship today, we hang about low double digits.

當你從第二季度到第三季度，從第三季度到第四季度時，它可能只是1% 或2%，假設第四季度的季節性因素更長，那麼第四季度可能會有更大的提升，所以當我們考慮我們的現貨與合約關係時今天，我們徘徊在低兩位數的位置。

You know, the 10%, 11% between our larger brands, we can flex that certainly if there's opportunity that comes our way and we've in the past and really strong markets have brought that number to 20%, 25%.

你知道，我們較大品牌之間的比例為10%、11%，如果有機會出現，我們當然可以靈活調整這一比例，而且我們過去確實強勁的市場已將這一數字提高到20%、25 %。

I don't think we'll have that opportunity in the near term.

我認為我們短期內不會有這樣的機會。

But certainly we'd be open to flexing that number up based on what opportunities come our way and the pricing on those opportunities.

但我們當然願意根據我們遇到的機會以及這些機會的定價來調整這個數字。

I would say just that one comment.

我只想說這一點。

There's just we've seen great stability pretty consistently, and we kind of expect that outside of that, the spot premium opportunities.

只是我們一直看到了巨大的穩定性，我們預計除此之外還有現貨溢價機會。

But just from here, I think our anticipation is the brake probably only goes up from here and how fast and to what extent that we don't know.

但就從這裡開始，我認為我們的預期是煞車可能只會從這裡開始上升，以及我們不知道的速度和程度。

But we don't we don't anticipate rate pressure down overall in the business.

但我們預計整個產業的利率壓力不會下降。

And so our assumptions are based on a relatively stable rate environment for the rest of the year.

因此，我們的假設是基於今年剩餘時間相對穩定的利率環境。

And in terms of your percent of trucks in spot that's been at kind of the same level on you for a few quarters and you keep it there for a few quarters going forward?

就您的現場卡車百分比而言，幾個季度以來一直處於同一水平，並且您會在未來幾個季度中保持這一水平嗎？

Yeah, I think those trucks are now more profitable because the spot opportunities, as Andrew mentioned, are more of a premium than that a discount.

是的，我認為這些卡車現在更有利可圖，因為正如安德魯提到的那樣，現貨機會更多的是溢價而不是折扣。

But again, I think, Tom, we would have the ability to flex that up pretty quickly.

但我再次認為，湯姆，我們將有能力很快地調整這一點。

If the right opportunity comes our way.

如果合適的機會來到我們身邊。

Right.

正確的。

Okay, great, thank you.

好的，太好了，謝謝。

Brian Ossenbeck, J.P. Morgan.

布萊恩‧奧森貝克，摩根大通。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Okay, afternoon.

好的，下午。

Thanks for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

I wanted to see if you could give us a little more color behind US Xpress should be improving in this in this market.

我想看看您是否能為我們提供更多關於 US Xpress 在這個市場上應該有所改進的資訊。

I don't know how much of that could be and what you would attribute to self-help, if you would describe maybe percentage of market base versus self-help, that would be useful to kind of figure out how that's progressing right now.

我不知道其中有多少可能以及您將什麼歸因於自助，如果您能描述市場基礎與自助的百分比，這將有助於弄清楚目前的進展。

And then just as a follow-up to clarify, the other segment income turning negative in the fourth quarter and sort of offsetting some of the normal seasonal uplift you might see is that really showing up now because insurance is gone and the others segments are still off of a pretty low base and that's why it's a bigger impact?

然後，作為澄清的後續行動，其他部門的收入在第四季度轉為負值，並在某種程度上抵消了你可能會看到的一些正常的季節性增長，現在確實出現了，因為保險消失了，其他部門仍然存在基數相當低，這就是為什麼它的影響更大？

Or is it something that you're it's going to kind of meet the fourth quarter in a more normal environment, whatever we end up getting there?

或者你會在一個更正常的環境中迎接第四季度，無論我們最終會達到什麼結果？

Yes.

是的。

So maybe let me hit the all segment.

所以也許讓我進入所有部分。

Our all other segment insurance really blurred that those results over the last couple of years.

我們所有其他細分市場的保險確實模糊了過去幾年的結果。

And at first, it was a positive and certainly turned to a negative there.

起初，這是積極的，但肯定會變成消極的。

But we have some core businesses within the all other segment, like our warehousing and equipment leasing that are relatively consistent.

但我們在所有其他部門都有一些核心業務，例如我們的倉儲和設備租賃，這些業務相對一致。

And typically they play out where they have strong results in the first three quarters and then they see a little bit of a dip and go up breakeven could have a small loss in the fourth quarter.

通常情況下，他們會在前三個季度取得強勁業績，然後會出現一些下滑，並在第四季度實現盈虧平衡，可能會出現小幅虧損。

I think that that's having a bigger impact in terms of the percentage of the EPS because of just where the truckload margins are today, sort of that, that the seasonality has always been there.

我認為這對每股收益的百分比產生了更大的影響，因為今天的卡車裝載利潤率，某種程度上，季節性一直存在。

It's just when our truckload business is operating in the low 80s, it's just not, as you know, is readily visible because it's a smaller percentage of the overall income and so that's why we're calling that out now, Brian, so that you understand why there isn't maybe the same lift from Q3 to Q4 that maybe some would have anticipated, but nothing has really changed in those other businesses other than we just pulled out the insurance, which clearly we didn't have any impact to the business, which is a positive.

只是當我們的卡車裝載業務在 80 年代後期運營時，正如您所知，它並不容易看到，因為它佔總收入的比例較小，所以這就是為什麼我們現在要大聲疾呼，布萊恩，以便您理解為什麼從第三季到第四季可能沒有像有些人預期的那樣的提升，但除了我們剛剛取消保險之外，其他業務沒有任何真正的變化，這顯然對我們沒有任何影響商業，這是積極的。

And I'm knocking on wood to make sure that we feel that same way here the next quarter.

我正在努力確保我們下個季度也能有同樣的感覺。

When I think about US Xpress, the progress there, I mean really all about self-help I mean, there really hasn't been any market base support.

當我想到 US Xpress 時，那裡的進展，我的意思是，實際上都是自助，我的意思是，確實沒有任何市場基礎支援。

If anything, that's been a headwind like it's been to everybody in the industry.

如果有什麼不同的話，那就是對這個行業的每個人來說，這都是一種逆風。

And so use Xpress has been able to make some progress despite some of the market headwinds that we've faced with.

因此，儘管我們面臨一些市場阻力，但 use Xpress 仍取得了一些進展。

And so we've done a lot of the hard work we've built out our terminal network of 11 terminals we've been meaningful progress on costs that are getting closer from a cost per mile parity with Knight and Swift.

因此，我們做了很多艱苦的工作，建立了由 11 個航站樓組成的航站樓網絡，我們在成本方面取得了有意義的進展，與 Knight 和 Swift 的每英里成本越來越接近。

The dedicated business that use Xpress is performing fairly well.

使用 Xpress 的專用業務表現相當不錯。

It's very close to parity with our swift dedicated and logistics is also doing well.

這與我們的快速專用非常接近，而且物流也表現良好。

And that's that performance very closely to our Knight and Swift Logistics businesses.

這與我們的 Knight 和 Swift Logistics 業務非常接近。

The over the road business to one way over the road is where we have the biggest opportunity.

公路單程業務是我們擁有最大機會的領域。

And that's also where we feel we have a core competency as an organization and we've got great leadership there.

這也是我們認為我們作為一個組織擁有核心能力並且擁有出色領導力的地方。

I use Xpress.

我用的是隨心。

I know how to operate one way over the road capacity.

我知道如何操作一種超過道路容量的方式。

It's just the starting point was just in a really bad spot.

只是起點非常糟糕。

We've made some progress there, but as we get some market support, I think we would expect that that business really makes some big strides and becomes it will be profitable and begins to close the gap between Knight and Swift, but he will need a little market tailwind to help with that.

我們已經在這方面取得了一些進展，但隨著我們獲得一些市場支持，我認為我們預計該業務確實會取得一些大的進步，並變得有利可圖，並開始縮小Knight 和Swift 之間的差距，但他需要一點市場順風對此有所幫助。

But as you've seen some of the seasonality we've talked about, we're introducing some of these projects in the US Xpress business where historically they wouldn't have participated in the.

但正如您所看到的我們討論過的一些季節性，我們正在 US Xpress 業務中引入其中一些項目，而這些項目在歷史上是他們不會參與的。

So I think there's some there's some additional markets that they're reaching out to and finding opportunities in and as we see that change the market change and improve, we'll continue to find more wins for US Xpress and again, make some progress.

因此，我認為他們正在接觸一些其他市場並尋找機會，當我們看到市場變化和改善時，我們將繼續為 US Xpress 找到更多勝利，並再次取得一些進展。

We expect some meaningful progress here in the next year, especially if the market changes.

我們預計明年會取得一些有意義的進展，特別是如果市場發生變化的話。

It was always going to take some time to restructure the book of business.

重組業務簿總是需要一些時間。

They are operating under to a network strategy.

他們按照網路策略運作。

So there's been a lot of work left done to build the type of customers and the kind of network that were that we know works and that means you got to leave spot market there.

因此，還有很多工作要做，以建立我們知道有效的客戶類型和網路類型，這意味著你必須離開那裡的現貨市場。

When we when we acquired them, they're probably close to half of their demand and spot market there.

當我們收購它們時，它們可能接近那裡需求和現貨市場的一半。

And in line now with rest of our businesses and as we've done that, it's taken a time we've got the right type of customer, the right type of freight that's going to be responsive when the market's ready and we can operate efficiently.

現在，與我們的其他業務一致，正如我們所做的那樣，我們花了一段時間才獲得了正確類型的客戶、正確類型的貨運，當市場準備好並且我們可以高效運營時，這些類型將做出響應。

And we are a US Xpress's operating countered kind of where the industries as we've done overall is done on rate.

我們是一家 US Xpress 的營運公司，我們所做的整個行業都是按速率進行的。

So they're probably double digit up year over year on rate and probably up mid-single digit from first quarter.

因此，它們的成長率可能會年增兩位數，並且可能比第一季成長中個位數。

That's because we've got the right type of customers that are, but they're going to be able to respond and we're going to start to see that a little bit here in the second half, but there's a lot of signs that are encouraging to us that with a little bit of tailwind.

這是因為我們擁有正確類型的客戶，但他們將能夠做出回應，我們將在下半年開始看到這一點，但有很多跡象表明給我們帶來了一點鼓勵。

That business has a lot of runway.

這項業務有很多跑道。

And just a quick follow-up.

只是快速跟進。

Can you keep the fleet roughly the same sizes when you acquired it to hit all those metrics?

當您獲得機隊以達到所有這些指標時，您能否保持機隊規模大致相同？

And get to parity, assuming the market when the market recovers or do you think you need to shrink that down a little bit?

並達到平價，假設市場復甦時的市場，或者你認為你需要將其縮小一點嗎？

I think we've come off the suite some and I think that was maybe more on the dedicated side where we had some accounts that we weren't able to retain or the customer decided to disband the fleet to take advantage of a more attractive one-way opportunity.

我認為我們已經脫離了一些套件，我認為這可能更多是在專用方面，我們有一些無法保留的帳戶，或者客戶決定解散機隊以利用更具吸引力的帳戶方式機會。

The goal is that we can keep that, that that fleet stable and make improvement as the market improves.

我們的目標是保持機隊穩定，並隨著市場的改善而改善。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks very much, guys.

非常感謝，夥計們。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens Inc., Your line is now open.

Daniel Imbro，Stephens Inc.，您的線路現已開通。

Yeah, hi, good afternoon, everybody, and thanks taking your questions.

是的，嗨，大家下午好，感謝您提出問題。

Wanted to ask a follow-up, Adam, on the LTL segment.

Adam 想問關於 LTL 部分的後續問題。

So obviously, you're adding a good amount of rooftops and doors this year in the guidance.

顯然，今年您在指南中添加了大量的屋頂和門。

You mentioned you expected revenue per hundredweight.

您提到您預期每英擔收入。

I think up high singles.

我認為高單打。

So pricing remains supportive, but curious how you envision going to market to fill that capacity?

因此，定價仍然具有支撐性，但好奇您打算如何進入市場來填補這一容量？

Is it just waiting on the industry to reflect higher where you have more stranded costs in the near term.

是否只是等待產業反映更高，短期內有更多擱淺成本。

Curious how you weigh the puts and takes of bringing that capacity online and ultimately how you fill it.

好奇您如何權衡將該容量上線的投入和投入，以及最終如何填補它。

Yeah.

是的。

I think, you know, initially when you open up a new territory, I mean you look for some of the 3PLs where you can now add a Zip code or a certain market and you put your pricing in and you start to see freight begin to flow into those markets, assuming you have competitive pricing and then you have a sales force there that that's knocking on doors finding opportunities to leverage the new network.

我想，你知道，最初當你開闢一個新領域時，我的意思是你會尋找一些3PL，你現在可以在其中添加郵政編碼或某個市場，然後輸入你的定價，然後你開始看到運費開始下降。

And then you have some of your large national bids that now open up for you because you have a full state coverage or some additional service area that they're interested in.

然後，您現在可以進行一些大型全國性投標，因為您擁有完整的州覆蓋範圍或他們感興趣的一些附加服務區域。

And then you also as you build more additional scale, you can bring on some larger customers.

然後，當你建立更多的額外規模時，你可以吸引一些更大的客戶。

You only like to deal with the largest players in.

你只喜歡與最大的玩家打交道。

And we have a lot of relationships with those type of shippers on the truckload side.

我們與卡車運輸方面的此類托運人有很多關係。

And many of them did not utilize our LTL service because we don't have nationwide coverage.

他們中的許多人沒有使用我們的零擔服務，因為我們沒有涵蓋全國範圍。

So as we build this out, they don't all have that and they don't all need nationwide coverage, but they need certain scale in certain markets as we build these out, we'll find some additional opportunities to bring on new customers that we already have relationships on the truckload side.

因此，當我們建立這個系統時，他們並不都擁有這些，也不需要全都覆蓋全國，但當我們建立這些系統時，他們需要在某些市場達到一定的規模，我們會發現一些額外的機會來吸引新客戶我們已經在卡車裝載方面建立了關係。

So it's a process to build the volumes up.

所以這是一個增加數量的過程。

So in the meantime, it does create a little bit of a headwind from a cost per transaction standpoint, but the yield we've been able to secure helps overcome that.

因此，同時，從每筆交易成本的角度來看，它確實造成了一些阻力，但我們能夠獲得的收益有助於克服這一點。

And so we've been able to hold margin relatively flat and that we'll see some seasonal, no degradation of margin, which is which is normal for the AAA Cooper MME business in the back half of the year.

因此，我們能夠將利潤率保持在相對平穩的水平，並且我們會看到一些季節性的、利潤率不會下降的情況，這對於今年下半年的 AAA Cooper MME 業務來說是正常的。

But as we get stable with these terminals and see the volume begin to flow, we'd expect that puts us in a good position to not only grow top line, but to expand margins and have that flow through to the to the operating income.

但隨著我們在這些終端上變得穩定並看到交易量開始流動，我們預計這將使我們處於有利地位，不僅可以增加收入，而且可以擴大利潤率，並將其轉化為營業收入。

One other point, you know what we're going to we're going to open up 38 locations this year that that increases our door count by 20%.

還有一點，你知道我們要做什麼，今年我們將開設 38 家門市，這將使我們的門市數量增加 20%。

I think when meaningful contributor, this was a heavy organic growth year next year, we expect to be able to really grow those businesses, we're going to be active and operating ahead of next year's bid cycle.

我認為，當做出有意義的貢獻時，明年將是一個重大的有機成長，我們希望能夠真正發展這些業務，我們將在明年的投標週期之前積極開展業務。

So that's going to give us a kind of a step function and opportunity to grow that business because we're going to be ahead of that cycle.

因此，這將為我們提供一種發展業務的階梯功能和機會，因為我們將走在這個週期的前面。

So our customers are asking for us to too participate.

所以我們的客戶要求我們也要參與其中。

They're wanting us, they want options.

他們想要我們，他們想要選擇。

They want to include us in their bid process.

他們希望我們參與他們的投標過程。

And so we're encouraged that there is a lot of opportunity, but we're being very, very thoughtful about the cost we grow into that business.

因此，我們對這裡有很多機會感到鼓舞，但我們非常非常認真地考慮發展該業務的成本。

We don't overdo it and to do that because we understand and we value the need to maintain margin as we grow.

我們不會做得太過分，因為我們理解並重視在我們成長過程中保持利潤的必要性。

But this is a good environment for us to invest because the rate environment has been so favorable.

但這對我們來說是一個很好的投資環境，因為利率環境非常有利。

Appreciate the color.

欣賞顏色。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

Jon Chappell from Evercore ISI.

Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Your line is now open.

您的線路現已開通。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Adam, Andrew, I don't want to kind of overcomplicate this, but if we look at the US core number ex the claim of $0.3 in the second quarter, you've laid out a lot of like small step change positive in every single segment, and we're still looking at midpoints of [33% and 34%] for the third quarter and the fourth quarter.

Adam、Andrew，我不想讓這個問題變得過於複雜，但是如果我們看一下美國的核心數據（第二季度 0.3 美元的索賠），您就已經在每一個方面都提出了很多類似的小步積極變化細分市場，我們仍然關注第三季和第四季的中點[33% 和34%]。

I know there's the other income in 4Q and there's a seasonality in LTL, I know we've identified the tax rate, although your tax rate was quite high in the second quarter as well.

我知道第四季還有其他收入，零擔也有季節性，我知道我們已經確定了稅率，儘管你們第二季的稅率也很高。

So is there just is this an element of conservatism on, you know, kind of not quite getting the true seasonality that you would typically get in September, October and just keeping a really low bar with a potential step change to '25?

那麼，這是否只是一種保守主義元素，你知道，有點不太了解通常在 9 月、10 月得到的真正季節性，只是保持一個非常低的標準，可能會逐步改變到“25”？

Or do you feel like you really have line of sight on this this kind of, let's call them really steady into year end, what kind of a hope for '25?

或者你覺得你真的有這樣的視線，讓我們稱他們真正穩定到年底，對'25有什麼樣的希望？

So I should say, Jon, I hate ever calling our guidance conservative right I think, so I think, you know, this is the best indication of where the business is going to perform with the information that we have today.

所以我應該說，喬恩，我討厭稱我們的指引為保守派，我認為，所以我認為，你知道，這是根據我們今天掌握的信息，業務將表現如何的最佳指示。

And again, we don't want to sit here and call the inflection.

再說一次，我們不想坐在這裡稱呼這種變化。

Again, we saw positive signs.

我們再次看到了積極的跡象。

As I mentioned earlier, we can't call it a trend yet, but we've seen this market move rapidly, both up and down.

正如我之前提到的，我們還不能稱之為趨勢，但我們已經看到這個市場快速變化，無論是上漲還是下跌。

And typically we haven't been able to forecast that.

通常我們無法預測這一點。

So there's always a risk that it moves faster than we forecast.

因此，總是存在著它的發展速度比我們預測的要快的風險。

But right now, our assumptions are that we have this steady improvement in the business.

但現在，我們的假設是我們的業務穩定改善。

And as you see and as you said, we've made some step function changes in each of the different segments, which we're encouraged by, but are nowhere near where they need to be.

正如您所看到的和您所說的，我們在每個不同的細分市場中進行了一些階躍功能更改，我們對此感到鼓舞，但還遠遠沒有達到所需的程度。

And based on what we're hearing from customers based on the data that we're seeing from our businesses as well as third party.

基於我們從客戶那裡聽到的資訊以及我們從我們的企業以及第三方看到的數據。

We believe that will be a consistent improvement throughout the rest of this year.

我們相信，今年剩餘時間這將持續改善。

That could that be going to be more volatile than that.

那可能會比這更加不穩定。

Certainly, I think we've seen that in the past.

當然，我認為我們過去已經看到過這一點。

We're just not in a position right now to trying to forecast that.

我們現在無法嘗試預測這一點。

Okay.

好的。

Understand.

理解。

Thank you, Adam.

謝謝你，亞當。

Eric Morgan, Barclays.

艾瑞克摩根，巴克萊銀行。

Your line is now open.

您的線路現已開通。

Hi, good afternoon and thanks for taking my question.

您好，下午好，感謝您提出我的問題。

I guess I'll last one on logistics, just the brokerage gross margin improving sequentially from 1Q to 2Q?

我想我會上一篇關於物流，只是經紀毛利率從第一季到第二季連續改善？

Can you speak to some of the drivers there and any shifts in power only some of this volume transferred with that asset base business that had an impact?

您能否與那裡的一些驅動因素談談，以及任何權力的轉變，只有部分數量隨著資產基礎業務的轉移而產生影響？

And just based on given what we're seeing in the spot market, just curious if you could offer some color there.

基於我們在現貨市場上看到的情況，只是好奇你們是否可以在那裡提供一些顏色。

Thank you?

謝謝你？

So Eric, I think that's probably largely driven from just pricing discipline.

埃里克，我認為這可能很大程度上是由定價紀律驅動的。

We're always managing the pricing dynamics of customers between our logistics business and our asset base business.

我們始終在物流業務和資產基礎業務之間管理客戶的定價動態。

And we tried not to undercut each other unless it really makes sense in a certain market, we're one service offering would take the lead with the customer.

我們盡量不互相削弱，除非這在某個市場確實有意義，我們是一種服務產品，將在客戶中起帶頭作用。

And so because we appreciate how much pricing flows to the bottom line.

之所以如此，是因為我們了解定價對利潤的影響程度。

And in some cases, we would value that overages sheer volume, especially in logistics, that we've probably taken a more distant and disciplined approach to maybe others in the market.

在某些情況下，我們會重視絕對數量的過剩，特別是在物流方面，我們可能對市場上的其他人採取了更遙遠和嚴格的方法。

And I think also the addition of the US Xpress team has helped that.

我認為 US Xpress 團隊的加入也對此有所幫助。

I mean, they actually had a good logistics business.

我的意思是，他們實際上有很好的物流業務。

We had to make some adjustments on how we staff the way that and the way that work to help the gross margin flow to the bottom line to operating income.

我們必須對人員配置方式和工作方式進行一些調整，以幫助毛利率流入營業收入的底線。

But they've been additive to that team and they've got some niche customers that they do really well with.

但他們已經成為該團隊的補充，並且他們擁有一些與他們合作得非常好的利基客戶。

And so we've helped them with some systems in and the way they approach the market.

因此，我們在一些系統以及他們進入市場的方式上為他們提供了幫助。

But that team has helped improve our overall logistics capabilities and also the gross margin and profitability.

但該團隊幫助提高了我們的整體物流能力以及毛利率和獲利能力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'll do the last question here.

我們將在這裡做最後一個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bruce Chan from Stifel.

來自斯蒂菲爾的布魯斯·陳。

Your line is now open.

您的線路現已開通。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

Yeah, good afternoon and thanks for the question here.

是的，下午好，謝謝你的提問。

Adam, I just wanted to follow up on some of the commentary around US Xpress.

Adam，我只是想跟進有關 US Xpress 的一些評論。

You gave us some good color there already, but I want to make sure I'm understanding it properly.

你已經給了我們一些很好的顏色，但我想確保我正確理解它。

You said most of the opportunity there is self-help and I would think there's still some juicy low hanging fruit, but you also mentioned that it would the process in terms of finding the profit contribution in the back half, and that will come with some help from the market.

你說大部分機會都是自助，我認為仍然有一些容易實現的多汁果實，但你也提到，這將是在後半部分找到利潤貢獻的過程，這將帶來一些來自市場的幫助。

So is the idea there that US Xpress will contribute if you have some market tailwinds, but we could be close to another breakeven quarter a couple of quarters.

因此，如果市場順風順水，US Xpress 將會做出貢獻，但我們可能會在幾個季度內接近另一個盈虧平衡季度。

Again, if that doesn't materialize, I just again want to make sure that I'm understanding that properly.

再說一次，如果這沒有實現，我只是想再次確保我正確理解了這一點。

Sure.

當然。

So I think what I was trying to say is the progress we made with US Xpress up to today has been largely self-help because there really hasn't been market support.

所以我想我想說的是，我們迄今為止在 US Xpress 上取得的進展很大程度上是自助的，因為確實沒有市場支持。

It's been probably more of a hedge, right?

這可能更像是一種對沖，對吧？

So I think we've made progress despite where the market is still when we look at the back half of the year for use Xpress, if seasonality plays out like we are forecasting for the rest of our business.

因此，我認為，儘管市場仍然存在，但當我們回顧今年下半年的使用 Xpress 時，如果季節性因素像我們對其餘業務的預測一樣，我們已經取得了進展。

I think US Xpress would see the same benefits from that.

我認為 US Xpress 也會從中看到同樣的好處。

It would be a contributor, particularly in the fourth quarter more so than the third quarter as they as they start to enter into similar markets that Knight and Swift participate in when you when you hit a fourth quarter with some seasonality.

這將是一個貢獻者，特別是在第四季度，比第三季度更重要，因為他們開始進入奈特和斯威夫特參與的類似市場，當你進入第四季度時，有一些季節性。

So see, I think we expect to make some continued progress if the market is significantly different than forecasted.

因此，我認為，如果市場與預測有顯著差異，我們預計將取得一些持續進展。

Obviously that could change how they perform.

顯然這可能會改變他們的表現。

I think when we see the inflection, you know where it's more meaningful and contract rates are up in a more meaningful way, then that's when I believe US Xpress will see meaningful improvement and really will start to close the gap to Knight and Swift and get closer to operating in the 80s and then they start with high 80s and then and then low 80s or mid 80s and it gets back to that dollar per share that we initially talked about in terms of accretion, it may take a little longer to get there given this this downcycle has lasted longer than expected, but we certainly should have line of sight based on how that business is positioned and what we think the opportunities could be in a strengthening market.

我認為，當我們看到這種拐點時，你就會知道它在哪裡更有意義，合約費率以更有意義的方式上漲，然後我相信US Xpress 將看到有意義的改進，並真正開始縮小與Knight 和Swift 的差距，並獲得接近80 年代運營，然後從80 年代高位開始，然後是80 年代低位或80 年代中期，然後又回到我們最初在增值方面談到的每股美元，可能需要更長的時間才能到達那裡鑑於此，這次下行週期的持續時間比預期的要長，但我們當然應該根據該業務的定位以及我們認為在走強的市場中可能存在的機會來製定視線。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks for that clarification.

感謝您的澄清。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Well, that will conclude our call.

好吧，我們的通話就到此結束。

I appreciate all the questions and everyone dialling in.

我感謝所有的問題和每個撥打電話的人。

And if we didn't get to your question, you can call us at 602-606-6349.

如果我們沒有回答您的問題，您可以致電 602-606-6349 與我們聯絡。

Thanks, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen.

女士們，先生們。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。