科磊 (KLAC) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

然後對話結束。 KLA 是一家為半導體和其他納米電子行業提供過程控制和良率管理解決方案的公司。公司受到多種因素的影響,包括公司相對於同行的業績、整體市場的實力以及供應鏈挑戰。由於與中國相關的出口管制動態,該公司的積壓訂單有所減少,但該公司仍有大量積壓訂單。公司的遞延收入並未像其他公司那樣受到這些因素的影響。文中描述了演講者對來年內存資本支出減少和中國 WFE 的期望。他們預計內存資本支出的削減將是廣泛的,因客戶而異,並預計中國 WFE 整體下降,但幅度不及 WFE 的其他領域。他們將此歸因於對中國遺留節點和基礎設施的持續投資。 KLA 是一家專注於半導體過程控制設備市場的公司。該公司的產品能夠擴大市場份額,支持客戶的技術路線圖,並提供穩定因素,增強對未來需求前景的信心。 KLA 的運營執行以戰略目標為指導,戰略目標推動了公司的發展、持續的卓越運營以及多樣化產品和服務的差異化。這些目標也是 KLA 持續的技術領先地位、始終如一的行業領先財務業績以及不斷增長的股東資本回報的基礎。 KLA Corporation 是半導體和納米電子行業過程控制和良率管理解決方案的領先供應商。公司總部位於加利福尼亞州米爾皮塔斯,並在北美、亞洲和歐洲設有辦事處。

KLA Corporation 最近公佈了截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日的季度財務業績。該公司公佈的非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 7.38 美元,高於 6.30 美元至 7.70 美元指導範圍的中點。 GAAP 稀釋後每股收益也高於指導的中點 6.89 美元。由於本季度非現金庫存儲備增加的影響,非 GAAP 毛利率為 61%,略低於 61.5% 至 63.5% 的指導範圍。該公司為大批量產品提取了這些儲備金,它們與不斷變化的客戶交貨日期和由此產生的本季度積壓調整一致。

該公司預計 3 月季度的收入為 23.5 億美元,毛利率在 60.5% 至 62.5% 之間。預計 3 月季度的運營費用將下降至約 5.45 億美元。對於 calendar '23,KLA 將繼續平衡對技術、員工人數和基礎設施的投資,以支持其長期增長目標,同時根據近期前景疲軟的預期管理業務。因此,該公司預計季度運營費用水平將隨著今年餘下時間的推移而下降。

KLA Corporation 是一家為半導體和納米電子行業提供過程控制和良率管理解決方案的公司。公司總部位於加利福尼亞州米爾皮塔斯,並在北美、亞洲和歐洲設有辦事處。

KLA Corporation 最近公佈了截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日的季度財務業績。該公司公佈的非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 7.38 美元,高於 6.30 美元至 7.70 美元指導範圍的中點。 GAAP 稀釋後每股收益也高於指導的中點 6.89 美元。由於本季度非現金庫存儲備增加的影響,非 GAAP 毛利率為 61%,略低於 61.5% 至 63.5% 的指導範圍。該公司為大批量產品提取了這些儲備金,它們與不斷變化的客戶交貨日期和由此產生的本季度積壓調整一致。

該公司預計 3 月季度的收入為 23.5 億美元,毛利率在 60.5% 至 62.5% 之間。預計 3 月季度的運營費用將下降至約 5.45 億美元。對於 calendar '23,KLA 將繼續平衡對技術、員工人數和基礎設施的投資,以支持其長期增長目標,同時根據近期前景疲軟的預期管理業務。因此,該公司預計季度運營費用水平將隨著今年餘下時間的推移而下降。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Chelsea, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the KLA Corporation December Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

    下午好。我叫切爾西,今天我將擔任你們的會議運營商。此時,我想歡迎大家參加 KLA Corporation 2022 年 12 月季度收益電話會議和網絡直播。 (操作員說明)謝謝。

  • And I will now turn the call over to Kevin Kessel, Vice President of Investor Relations and Market Analytics. Sir, please go ahead.

    我現在將電話轉給投資者關係和市場分析副總裁 Kevin Kessel。先生,請繼續。

  • Kevin M. Kessel - VP of IR

    Kevin M. Kessel - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Chelsea, and welcome to our earnings call to discuss the results of the December quarter and our March quarter outlook.

    謝謝切爾西,歡迎參加我們的財報電話會議,討論 12 月季度的結果和我們 3 月季度的展望。

  • Joining me is Rick Wallace, our Chief Executive Officer; and Bren Higgins, our Chief Financial Officer. During this call, we will discuss our results released today after the market close. All materials can be found on our IR website.

    和我一起的是我們的首席執行官里克·華萊士 (Rick Wallace);和我們的首席財務官 Bren Higgins。在這次電話會議中,我們將討論我們今天收市後發布的結果。所有材料都可以在我們的 IR 網站上找到。

  • Today's discussion is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. Whenever references are made to full year business performance, they are calendar year references. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results is in the earnings material posted on our website.

    除非另有說明,否則今天的討論是在非 GAAP 財務基礎上進行的。每當提及全年業務績效時,它們都是日曆年參考。 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的詳細對賬在我們網站上發布的收益材料中。

  • Our IR website also contains future investor events as well as presentations, corporate governance information and links to our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report and quarterly reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q.

    我們的 IR 網站還包含未來的投資者活動以及演示文稿、公司治理信息和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件的鏈接,包括我們最近的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格年度報告和季度報告。

  • Our comments today are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factor disclosure in our SEC filings. Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on the call today, are subject to those risks, and KLA cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

    我們今天的評論受到我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中披露的風險因素所反映的風險和不確定性的影響。任何前瞻性陳述,包括我們今天在電話會議上所做的陳述,都存在這些風險,KLA 無法保證這些前瞻性陳述會成真。我們的實際結果可能與我們的前瞻性陳述中預測的結果大不相同。

  • Our CEO, Rick Wallace, will begin the call with some quarterly comments and highlights before discussing the semiconductor industry demand environment. Bren Higgins, our CFO, will conclude with the financial highlights as well as our guidance and outlook.

    在討論半導體行業需求環境之前,我們的首席執行官 Rick Wallace 將以一些季度評論和要點開始電話會議。我們的首席財務官布倫·希金斯 (Bren Higgins) 將以財務亮點以及我們的指導和展望作為結尾。

  • I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Rick Wallace. Rick?

    我現在將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官里克華萊士。瑞克?

  • Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Kevin, and thank you all for joining us today. I will summarize KLA's performance in the quarter and summarize calendar 2022. I'll also provide a brief perspective on the overall semiconductor demand environment as well as outline KLA's priorities for 2023.

    謝謝,凱文,感謝大家今天加入我們。我將總結 KLA 在本季度的表現並總結 2022 年日曆。我還將簡要介紹整個半導體需求環境,並概述 KLA 2023 年的優先事項。

  • Before we get into details, I want to first acknowledge our global KLA teams who've continued to deliver for customers despite persistent challenges. KLA's results are proof of their commitment.

    在我們詳細介紹之前,我想首先感謝我們的全球 KLA 團隊,他們儘管面臨持續的挑戰,但仍繼續為客戶提供服務。 KLA 的結果證明了他們的承諾。

  • KLA's December quarter have revenue of $2.98 billion, which is above the guidance range, with 27% growth on a year-over-year basis and 10% sequentially. Quarterly non-GAAP net income was $1.05 billion. GAAP EPS was $6.89 and non-GAAP EPS was $7.38, with each finishing above the midpoint of the guidance ranges.

    KLA 十二月季度的收入為 29.8 億美元,高於指導範圍,同比增長 27%,環比增長 10%。季度非 GAAP 淨收入為 10.5 億美元。 GAAP 每股收益為 6.89 美元,非 GAAP 每股收益為 7.38 美元,均高於指導範圍的中點。

  • Calendar 2022 was another year of record growth, profitability and free cash flow. Specifically, revenue increased 28% in 2022 to $10.5 billion, marking the seventh consecutive year of growth, driven by 36% growth in semiconductor process control systems.

    2022 年又是增長、盈利和自由現金流創紀錄的一年。具體而言,在半導體過程控制系統增長 36% 的推動下,收入在 2022 年增長 28% 至 105 億美元,這是連續第七年增長。

  • KLA also demonstrated strong operating leverage on our revenue growth in 2022 with non-GAAP operating profit up 31% in the year. Non-GAAP incremental operating margin on the revenue growth was 46% for the year. For calendar 2022, free cash flow was up a healthy 18% to a record $3 billion, with free cash flow growth exceeding our 15% long-term target growth rate.

    KLA 還展示了對我們 2022 年收入增長的強大運營槓桿,非 GAAP 營業利潤在這一年增長了 31%。非 GAAP 收入增長的增量營業利潤率為 46%。 2022 年,自由現金流健康增長 18%,達到創紀錄的 30 億美元,自由現金流增長超過我們 15% 的長期目標增長率。

  • Now I'll summarize some specific highlights from the quarter and the year. First, KLA continued to deliver strong relative outperformance versus peers. KLA substantially outperformed overall WFE market growth in 2022. Looking ahead, our leadership in critical markets, such as wafer and reticle inspection, are expected to demonstrate resiliency in a year of contraction in overall WFE demand, setting the stage for another year of relative strength for KLA. Second, our Patterning Systems revenue grew 17% sequentially, which is up 69% on a year-over-year basis.

    現在我將總結本季度和本年度的一些具體亮點。首先,KLA 繼續表現優於同行。 KLA 在 2022 年的表現大大超過了整個 WFE 市場的增長。展望未來,我們在晶圓和光罩檢測等關鍵市場的領導地位預計將在 WFE 整體需求收縮的一年中表現出彈性,為下一年的相對強勢奠定基礎對於 KLA。其次,我們的圖案系統收入環比增長 17%,同比增長 69%。

  • Third, KLA delivered record revenue in the 10th consecutive quarter of sequential growth in our specialty semiconductor process segment, demonstrating resiliency and expanding market opportunity. Fourth, the KLA Services business grew 14% year-over-year in the December quarter and was up 15% on a full year basis. Finally, the December quarter was another exceptional period from a capital returns perspective as we completed the $3 billion accelerated share repurchase component of the $6 billion share repurchase authorization announced last June.

    第三,KLA 在我們的專業半導體工藝部門連續第 10 個季度實現創紀錄的收入連續增長,展示了彈性和不斷擴大的市場機會。第四,KLA 服務業務在 12 月季度同比增長 14%,全年增長 15%。最後,從資本回報的角度來看,12 月季度是另一個特殊時期,因為我們完成了去年 6 月宣布的 60 億美元股票回購授權中的 30 億美元加速股票回購部分。

  • KLA December quarter and calendar 2022 results and strong relative performance once again highlight the critical nature of KLA's products and services. Our consistent strong execution against various challenges in the marketplace, both in terms of macroeconomic uncertainties and addressing persistent supply chain challenges highlight the resiliency of the KLA operating model, the dedication of our global teams and our commitment to assertive capital allocation, and delivering long-term value to our stakeholders.

    KLA 12 月季度和 2022 年日曆結果以及強勁的相對錶現再次凸顯了 KLA 產品和服務的關鍵性。我們在宏觀經濟不確定性和解決持續存在的供應鏈挑戰方面始終如一地應對市場上的各種挑戰,這突出了 KLA 運營模式的彈性、我們全球團隊的奉獻精神以及我們對自信的資本配置的承諾,以及提供長期對我們的利益相關者的長期價值。

  • Looking at 2023, we know that this will be a year of industry capacity adjustments as customers fine-tune their CapEx plan to address decreased demand in some segments. However, we recognize that the semiconductor industry continues to be positioned for long-term growth, benefiting from the continued advancement of leading-edge technologies, increasing investment in legacy nodes and innovation and growth of new enabling technologies such as advanced packaging.

    展望 2023 年,我們知道這將是行業產能調整的一年,因為客戶會微調其資本支出計劃以應對某些細分市場需求下降的問題。然而,我們認識到,半導體行業繼續定位於長期增長,受益於前沿技術的持續進步、對傳統節點的投資增加以及先進封裝等新使能技術的創新和增長。

  • To address this period of adjustment and maintain our commitment to growth, we're emphasizing 3 main priorities for our teams in navigating 2023. First, we will continue to make sure that we support our customers by delivering on our commitments and continuing our levels of investment in R&D.

    為了應對這一調整期並保持我們對增長的承諾,我們強調我們的團隊在 2023 年航行中的 3 個主要優先事項。首先,我們將繼續確保通過履行我們的承諾和繼續我們的水平來支持我們的客戶研發投資。

  • Second, we'll stabilize our spending levels. To strategically navigate the current environment, our focus will be on stabilizing spending while maintaining R&D investments to drive market leadership. Our expectation is for R&D investment to increase in calendar 2023.

    二是穩定消費水平。為了戰略性地駕馭當前環境,我們的重點將是穩定支出,同時保持研發投資以推動市場領導地位。我們預計研發投資將在 2023 年增加。

  • Third, we'll emphasize development of our workforce. After a strong hiring pace, we're currently at approximately 15,000 employees worldwide. Optimizing training and developing our workforce will help ensure continued strength for the long term.

    第三,我們將強調我們的勞動力發展。經過強勁的招聘步伐後,我們目前在全球擁有約 15,000 名員工。優化培訓和發展我們的員工隊伍將有助於確保長期持續的實力。

  • Now Bren will review our December quarter highlights and our outlook. Bren?

    現在布倫將回顧我們 12 月季度的亮點和我們的展望。布倫?

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks. As Rick just detailed, we delivered strong December quarter and calendar '22 results that demonstrated consistent execution by the global KLA team. While supply chain challenges remain and impact on certain products, we continue to demonstrate resourcefulness and the ability to adapt to meet customer requirements.

    謝謝。正如 Rick 剛剛詳述的那樣,我們在 12 月季度和日曆 '22 取得了強勁的業績,證明了全球 KLA 團隊的一貫執行力。雖然供應鏈挑戰依然存在並對某些產品產生影響,但我們繼續展示足智多謀和適應客戶需求的能力。

  • Quarterly revenue was $2.98 billion, $184 million above the midpoint of guidance and just above the guided range of $2.65 billion to $2.95 billion. Revenue outperformance in the December quarter was driven primarily by KLA's broadband plasma optical pattern wafer inspection and mask inspection systems, resulting from favorable mitigation of identified supply chain risks as we move through the quarter.

    季度收入為 29.8 億美元,比指導的中點高出 1.84 億美元,略高於 26.5 億美元至 29.5 億美元的指導範圍。 12 月季度的收入表現出色主要是由 KLA 的寬帶等離子光學圖案晶圓檢測和掩模檢測系統推動的,這是由於我們在本季度移動時已確定的供應鏈風險得到有利緩解。

  • Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $7.38, above the midpoint of the guided range of $6.30 to $7.70. GAAP diluted EPS was also above the midpoint of guidance at $6.89. Non-GAAP gross margin was 61% and just below the guidance range of 61.5% to 63.5% due to the impact of increasing noncash inventory reserves taken in the quarter as we adjusted our factory output expectations and supply chain commitments to the current outlook, which has weakened at an accelerated pace over the past several months. These reserves were primarily taken against high-volume products and are consistent with shifting customer delivery dates and resulting backlog adjustments in the quarter.

    非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 7.38 美元,高於 6.30 美元至 7.70 美元指導範圍的中點。 GAAP 稀釋後每股收益也高於指導的中點 6.89 美元。非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 61%,略低於 61.5% 至 63.5% 的指導範圍,這是由於我們調整了工廠產量預期和供應鏈對當前前景的承諾,導致本季度非現金庫存儲備增加的影響,這在過去幾個月中加速減弱。這些儲備金主要是針對大批量產品提取的,並且與不斷變化的客戶交付日期和由此產生的本季度積壓調整一致。

  • Given the diversification of end demand across technology nodes, the extendibility of our product platforms and the expectations for growth in our service business, it is likely that we will realize a benefit from releasing these reserves over time when industry growth resumes. We estimate that these adjustments had a roughly 200-basis-point impact on GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin compared to what would have been assessed in a normalized industry environment. This impact was offset somewhat by higher business volume and by a strong product mix realized in the quarter.

    鑑於跨技術節點的終端需求多樣化、我們產品平台的可擴展性以及對我們服務業務增長的預期,當行業增長恢復時,我們很可能會隨著時間的推移釋放這些儲備而受益。我們估計,與在正常行業環境中評估的情況相比,這些調整對 GAAP 和非 GAAP 毛利率產生了大約 200 個基點的影響。這一影響在一定程度上被較高的業務量和本季度實現的強大產品組合所抵消。

  • Non-GAAP operating expenses were $555 million, slightly above our estimated $550 million for the quarter. Total non-GAAP operating expenses comprised $332 million in R&D and $223 million in SG&A. Non-GAAP operating margin was strong at 42.4%. Quarterly non-GAAP net income was $1.05 billion. GAAP net income was $979 million. Cash flow from operations was $688 million, and free cash flow was $595 million. Breakdown of revenue by reportable segments and end markets and major products and regions can be found within the shareholder letter and slides.

    非 GAAP 運營費用為 5.55 億美元,略高於我們對該季度的估計 5.5 億美元。非 GAAP 總運營費用包括 3.32 億美元的研發費用和 2.23 億美元的 SG&A 費用。非 GAAP 營業利潤率強勁,達到 42.4%。季度非 GAAP 淨收入為 10.5 億美元。 GAAP 淨收入為 9.79 億美元。運營現金流為 6.88 億美元,自由現金流為 5.95 億美元。可在股東信函和幻燈片中找到按可報告細分市場和終端市場以及主要產品和地區劃分的收入明細。

  • Switching to the balance sheet, KLA ended the quarter with $2.9 billion in total cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, debt of $6.1 billion, a reduction of $200 million in the quarter and a flexible and attractive bond maturity profile supported by strong investment-grade ratings from all 3 agencies. Over the last 12 months, KLA has returned $5.2 billion to shareholders, including $4.5 billion in share repurchases and $689 million in dividends paid.

    轉向資產負債表,KLA 在本季度結束時擁有 29 億美元的現金、現金等價物和有價證券總額,債務為 61 億美元,本季度減少了 2 億美元,並且在強大的投資級支持下靈活且有吸引力的債券到期情況所有 3 個機構的評級。在過去 12 個月中,KLA 已向股東返還 52 億美元,其中包括 45 億美元的股票回購和 6.89 億美元的股息支付。

  • Looking ahead to calendar '23, we expect industry spending to slow with the continued expectation for CY '23 WFE demand to be down approximately 20% in the year, down from approximately $94 billion to $95 billion in CY '22 due to increasing global macroeconomic concerns highlighted by our customers in most end markets and widely reported customer CapEx expectations.

    展望 23 日曆年,我們預計行業支出將放緩,因為全球宏觀經濟增長導致 23 日曆年 WFE 需求將在今年下降約 20%,從 22 日曆年的約 940 億美元下降至 950 億美元大多數終端市場的客戶強調的擔憂以及廣泛報導的客戶資本支出預期。

  • This WFE estimate reflects our current tops-down assessment of industry demand as follows. In memory, we expect WFE investment to decline by more than the market, with DRAM down more than NAND as memory customers respond to lower consumer demand by cutting production and factory utilizations to bring device supply in line with demand. We expect foundry logic to decline less than the overall market with leading-edge investment declining less than legacy.

    WFE 的這一估計反映了我們當前對行業需求的自上而下的評估,如下所示。在內存方面,我們預計 WFE 投資的降幅將超過市場,其中 DRAM 的降幅超過 NAND,因為內存客戶通過削減生產和工廠利用率來應對較低的消費者需求,以使設備供應與需求保持一致。我們預計代工邏輯的下降幅度小於整體市場,而前沿投資的下降幅度小於傳統。

  • KLA's unique broad portfolio differentiation and primary value proposition are focused on enabling technology transitions, which our customers continue to invest in regardless of the business environment. While capacity plans could change, technology roadmap investment tends to be more resilient and aligns with KLA's highest value product offerings, where we continue to have supply chain constraints inhibiting our ability to add the additional volumes to meet current demand. This demand adds additional confidence in our business expectations as customers align shipment slots with roadmap requirements.

    KLA 獨特的廣泛產品組合差異化和主要價值主張專注於實現技術轉型,無論業務環境如何,我們的客戶都會繼續投資於此。雖然容量計劃可能會發生變化,但技術路線圖投資往往更具彈性並與 KLA 的最高價值產品保持一致,我們繼續受到供應鏈限制,阻礙我們增加額外數量以滿足當前需求的能力。隨著客戶根據路線圖要求調整裝運時段,這種需求增加了我們對業務預期的信心。

  • In this industry environment, we will continue to focus on meeting customer requirements; maintaining a high level of investment in R&D to advance our product roadmaps and KLA's market leadership; and align our operating structure with top line expectations, which we expect to be in line or better on a relative basis while delivering strong relative financial performance.

    在這個行業環境下,我們將繼續專注於滿足客戶的要求;保持高水平的研發投資,以推進我們的產品路線圖和 KLA 的市場領導地位;並使我們的運營結構與最高預期保持一致,我們希望在相對基礎上符合或更好,同時提供強勁的相對財務業績。

  • Our March quarter guidance is as follows. Revenue of $2.35 billion, plus or minus $150 million. Foundry logic is forecasted to be approximately 85%, and memory is expected to be around 15% of semi PC systems revenue. Within memory, DRAM is expected to be about 71% of the segment mix and NAND 29%. We forecast non-GAAP gross margin to be in a range of 60.5% to 62.5% as product and segment mix and lower volumes dilute gross margins versus the '22 baseline in the quarter. Based on current market demand assessments, we do not expect incremental inventory reserve requirements to be a factor in the quarter.

    我們的 3 月季度指導如下。收入為 23.5 億美元,上下浮動 1.5 億美元。 Foundry logic 預計約佔 85%,內存預計佔 semi PC 系統收入的 15% 左右。在內存中,DRAM 預計佔細分市場組合的 71% 左右,NAND 佔 29%。我們預測非 GAAP 毛利率將在 60.5% 至 62.5% 之間,因為產品和細分市場組合以及較低的銷量會稀釋本季度的毛利率與 '22 基線。根據當前的市場需求評估,我們預計增量庫存儲備要求不會成為本季度的一個因素。

  • For calendar '23, based on our current industry outlook and the impact on overall volume, segment contribution and product mix within the semiconductor process control group, we are modeling gross margins to be greater than 60% with variability quarter-to-quarter attributable to product mix fluctuations. Operating expenses will decline in the March quarter to approximately $545 million.

    對於 calendar '23,根據我們當前的行業前景以及對半導體過程控制組內總體銷量、細分市場貢獻和產品組合的影響,我們將毛利率建模為大於 60%,且季度與季度之間的差異歸因於產品結構波動。運營費用將在 3 月季度下降至約 5.45 億美元。

  • For calendar '23, KLA will continue to balance investments in technology, head count and infrastructure to support our long-term growth objectives while managing the business against the expectation of a softening near-term outlook. As a result, we expect quarterly operating expense levels to decline as we move through the balance of the year.

    對於 calendar '23,KLA 將繼續平衡對技術、員工人數和基礎設施的投資,以支持我們的長期增長目標,同時根據近期前景疲軟的預期管理業務。因此,我們預計季度運營費用水平會隨著今年餘下時間的推移而下降。

  • Other model assumptions for the March quarter include other income and expense net of approximately $62 million and an effective tax rate of approximately 13.5%. Based on our current assessment of geographic revenue and profit expectations, you should continue to use 13.5% as the tax finding rate for calendar '23.

    3 月份季度的其他模型假設包括其他收入和支出淨額約為 6200 萬美元,有效稅率約為 13.5%。根據我們目前對地域收入和利潤預期的評估,您應該繼續使用 13.5% 作為 calendar '23 的徵稅率。

  • Finally, GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $4.06 to $5.46 and non-GAAP diluted EPS in a range of $4.52 to $5.92. EPS guidance is based on a fully diluted share count of approximately 139 million shares.

    最後,GAAP 稀釋後每股收益預計在 4.06 美元至 5.46 美元之間,非 GAAP 稀釋後每股收益預計在 4.52 美元至 5.92 美元之間。 EPS 指引基於約 1.39 億股的完全稀釋後的股份數。

  • In conclusion, though calendar 2023 will be a year of contraction after 3 strong years of growth, we remain confident that the secular trends outlined in our Investor Day last June are driving long-term semiconductor industry demand, and investments in WFE are durable and compelling. Broad-based customer demand across multiple production nodes, increasingly strategic role semiconductors are playing in influencing national industrial policy, a robust design environment at the leading edge and growing semiconductor content across technology nodes remains important trends.

    總而言之,儘管 2023 年將是經歷 3 年強勁增長後的收縮年,但我們仍然相信,去年 6 月投資者日概述的長期趨勢正在推動半導體行業的長期需求,並且對 WFE 的投資是持久且引人注目的.跨多個生產節點的廣泛客戶需求、半導體在影響國家產業政策方面發揮越來越重要的戰略作用、處於領先地位的強大設計環境以及跨技術節點不斷增長的半導體內容仍然是重要趨勢。

  • These are long-term secular growth drivers for the industry as technology investment and node transitions reflect the value that semiconductors in our industry have in lowering costs for our customers and enabling a broader application universe for semiconductor-based technology across multiple end markets.

    這些是該行業的長期長期增長動力,因為技術投資和節點轉換反映了我們行業中的半導體在降低客戶成本和跨多個終端市場為基於半導體的技術提供更廣泛應用領域方面的價值。

  • For KLA, we have a strong historical track record of delivering relative outperformance across industry cycles. To be competitive over the long run, our customers must continue to invest in product roadmaps irrespective of market conditions. Furthermore, KLA services has continued to grow consistently over multiple decades due to the critical nature of KLA products to improving yield learning and driving fab productivity. Our operational execution, coupled with the power of our portfolio strategy, positions us to continue to deliver sustainable relative performance over the next several years.

    對於 KLA,我們在跨行業周期提供相對優異表現方面擁有良好的歷史記錄。為了長期保持競爭力,無論市場狀況如何,我們的客戶都必須繼續投資於產品路線圖。此外,由於 KLA 產品對提高良率學習和推動晶圓廠生產力的關鍵性質,KLA 服務在過去幾十年中一直持續增長。我們的運營執行,加上我們投資組合戰略的力量,使我們能夠在未來幾年繼續提供可持續的相對業績。

  • We will continue to maintain our R&D investment and our product development roadmaps to enable market share expansion, support customers' technology roadmaps and multiyear fab investment plans. This provides an element of stability that shores up our confidence in the demand outlook for the future. These factors, combined with the KLA operating model that guides our execution, positions us well as we execute our strategic objectives.

    我們將繼續保持我們的研發投資和我們的產品開發路線圖,以擴大市場份額,支持客戶的技術路線圖和多年的晶圓廠投資計劃。這提供了一種穩定因素,增強了我們對未來需求前景的信心。這些因素與指導我們執行的 KLA 運營模式相結合,使我們在執行戰略目標時處於有利地位。

  • These objectives fuel our growth, consistent operational excellence and differentiation across the diverse product and services offering. They are also the foundation of our sustained technology leadership, consistent industry-leading financial performance and growing capital returns to shareholders.

    這些目標推動了我們的增長、持續的卓越運營以及多樣化產品和服務的差異化。它們也是我們持續的技術領先地位、始終如一的行業領先財務業績和不斷增長的股東資本回報的基礎。

  • With that, I'll turn the call back over to Kevin to begin the Q&A. Kevin?

    有了這個,我會把電話轉回凱文開始問答。凱文?

  • Kevin M. Kessel - VP of IR

    Kevin M. Kessel - VP of IR

  • Thanks, Bren. Chelsea, if you could please give instructions to queue for questions.

    謝謝,布倫。 Chelsea,如果可以,請指示排隊提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll now take our first question from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

    (操作員說明)我們現在將接受來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse 的第一個問題。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I guess, first question, you talked about expectations to outperform WFE again here in calendar '23. So curious, can you kind of walk through, is that a comment on total revenues? Or just process control? And within that, how should we be thinking about the benefit from backlog/deferred revenues, particularly into the March quarter? Trying to make sure I calculate that right in my model.

    我想,第一個問題,你談到了在 23 年日曆中再次超越 WFE 的期望。很好奇,你能不能解釋一下,這是對總收入的評論?還是只是過程控制?在此範圍內,我們應該如何考慮積壓/遞延收入帶來的好處,尤其是進入 3 月季度?試圖確保我在我的模型中計算正確。

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • C.J., so I'll start, and we'll let Rick chime in if there's more. But I think there are a few factors as you think about KLA's performance generally as we're looking at this year. Obviously, we had a very strong 2022 from a relative point of view. And when we talk about that, we're really talking about the compares against WFE, right? Because the other industries we're in, it's less clear. But given the Semi PC compared to WFE, if you look back historically, we've always done well in down years for WFE because our customers across all our segments pull back on capacity but continue to invest in technology and their technology roadmap. So that's always a positive factor for us.

    C.J.,我要開始了,如果還有更多內容,我們會讓 Rick 插話。但我認為,正如我們今年所看到的那樣,您總體上會考慮 KLA 的表現時有幾個因素。顯然,從相對的角度來看,我們有一個非常強勁的 2022 年。當我們談論這個時,我們實際上是在談論與 WFE 的比較,對吧?因為我們所處的其他行業,不太清楚。但是考慮到與 WFE 相比的 Semi PC,如果你回顧歷史,我們在 WFE 的低迷時期總是做得很好,因為我們所有部門的客戶都在減少產能,但繼續投資於技術和他們的技術路線圖。所以這對我們來說總是一個積極因素。

  • We also see PC intensity moving up because it -- where you generally see more cycling is in memory. And so given the relative PC intensity in logic and foundry, that tends to be something that's good for us as well. Relative to EUV and the dynamics around EUV, radical EUV, our optical pattern inspection business are inflecting. So that gives us incremental, I think, support in terms of growth as we expect both those businesses to be better performers relative to the overall industry, and they're big parts of KLA.

    我們還看到 PC 強度上升,因為它——您通常會在內存中看到更多的循環。因此,考慮到邏輯和代工領域的相對 PC 強度,這往往對我們也有好處。相對於 EUV 和圍繞 EUV 的動態,激進的 EUV,我們的光學模式檢測業務正在發生變化。因此,我認為,這為我們提供了增長方面的增量支持,因為我們預計這兩家企業相對於整個行業的表現都會更好,而且它們是 KLA 的重要組成部分。

  • China impacts another factor, right? I think if you look at some of the peer companies and some of the export control dynamics as a percent of the total, I think they're impacting some of our peers, perhaps at a little greater degree than KLA. So I think for all those factors, we feel pretty good about our position as we think about just our performance relative to the overall market despite the strength of what we saw in 2022.

    中國影響另一個因素,對吧?我認為,如果您查看一些同行公司和一些出口管制動態佔總數的百分比,我認為它們正在影響我們的一些同行,可能比 KLA 影響更大一些。因此,我認為對於所有這些因素,儘管我們在 2022 年看到了強勁的表現,但考慮到我們相對於整體市場的表現,我們對自己的地位感到非常滿意。

  • In terms of Q1 and backlog, I mean the deferred revenue hasn't really changed. We haven't had the issues that others have had in terms of having those -- the deferred revenue bloat up related to some of the supply chain challenges that were well chronicled. So that's fairly normal in terms of how we look at 2023.

    就第一季度和積壓而言,我的意思是遞延收入並沒有真正改變。我們沒有遇到其他人遇到的問題——遞延收入膨脹與一些已被詳細記錄的供應鏈挑戰有關。因此,就我們對 2023 年的看法而言,這是相當正常的。

  • The backlog did come down. We did some scrubbing related to the China export principally. So we saw some reductions there. We'll see the performance obligations come down about $1 billion overall. So some of that being the effect of the China dynamic, but also we did revenue at a level that was above the new bookings.

    積壓確實減少了。我們主要做了一些與中國出口相關的清理工作。所以我們在那裡看到了一些減少。我們將看到履約義務總體下降約 10 億美元。因此,部分原因是中國動態的影響,但我們的收入水平也高於新預訂。

  • So not a lot, and there's still a significant amount of backlog, and I think that we'll see that play through as we move forward here. So some of that is tied to -- longer term, to facility projects out beyond 12 months. 45% to 55% of our backlog is for delivery outside the 12-month window. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of color on the overall and our expectations for '23.

    所以不是很多,而且仍然有大量積壓,我認為我們會在前進的過程中看到這一點。因此,其中一些與 - 長期而言,與超過 12 個月的設施項目有關。我們 45% 到 55% 的積壓訂單是在 12 個月的窗口之外交付的。所以希望這能讓你對整體和我們對 23 年的期望有所了解。

  • Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • And C.J., maybe just to add one thought. When we laid out our investor plan for '26, at the time we did that, we actually anticipated that there would be a contraction between '22 and '26. We obviously didn't know when, but we felt that, that was going to happen. And our assumptions for that model were based on our percent of WFE, which, as you know, is a combination of the process control intensity in our share.

    C.J.,也許只是想補充一點。當我們制定 26 年的投資者計劃時,我們實際上預計 22 年和 26 年之間會出現收縮。我們顯然不知道什麼時候,但我們覺得,那會發生。我們對該模型的假設是基於我們的 WFE 百分比,如您所知,它是我們份額中過程控制強度的組合。

  • We don't see any degradation of that in '23 based on what we see. So we see holding percent of WFE or maybe continuing to make progress. So we still feel pretty good about the trajectory that we laid out in '26. And even though there will be -- these puts and takes based on projects that come and go, I think we feel pretty good, and we don't think '23 will be a problem relative to that longer-term plan.

    根據我們所看到的,我們在 23 年沒有看到任何退化。所以我們看到持有 WFE 的百分比或者可能繼續取得進展。因此,我們仍然對我們在 26 年制定的軌跡感到滿意。即使會有——這些基於來來去去的項目的投入和投入,我認為我們感覺很好,我們認為相對於長期計劃,'23 不會成為問題。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Very helpful. As my follow-up, you talked about expectations for gross margins north of 60% for the whole year, guided 61.5% for March. I guess this is kind of a 2-part question. I guess how do you see kind of a trough revenue quarter here? If you can answer that. And does that mean that we would be below 60% in the back half of calendar '23? Or you think you can stay north of 60% every quarter for the year?

    非常有幫助。作為我的後續行動,你談到了對全年毛利率超過 60% 的預期,3 月份的指導值為 61.5%。我想這是一個由兩部分組成的問題。我想你如何看待這裡的收入低谷?如果你能回答這個問題。這是否意味著我們將在 23 年日曆的後半段低於 60%?或者您認為一年中每個季度都可以保持在 60% 以上?

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, I think we could stay above 60%. Look, there could always be quarter-to-quarter dynamics in a given quarter depending on the mix of the business that could drive us beneath that level, but our expectation is that for the year, we'll be better than that overall.

    是的,我認為我們可以保持在 60% 以上。看,在給定的季度中總是存在季度到季度的動態,具體取決於可能使我們低於該水平的業務組合,但我們的預期是,今年我們會比整體表現更好。

  • I would expect, and as we said over the course of last quarter, that we thought that Q1 was likely the higher quarter in the year and that we would see a drifting down in terms of the run rate. And just to make the math work, you would see a lower second half than the first half. So I think we'll likely stay north of a couple of billion in terms of revenue levels, and we should be able to hold 60% in terms of a run rate from a gross margin point of view.

    我預計,正如我們在上個季度所說的那樣,我們認為第一季度可能是今年較高的季度,並且我們會看到運行率下降。只是為了讓數學起作用,你會看到下半年比上半年低。因此,我認為我們的收入水平可能會保持在 20 億美元以上,而且從毛利率的角度來看,我們應該能夠保持 60% 的運行率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

  • Joseph Michael Quatrochi - Senior Equity Analyst

    Joseph Michael Quatrochi - Senior Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to kind of double-click on your WFE expectations and then how do you think about your model. Are you thinking about first half or second half WFE being relatively balanced for the year and then within your kind of forward revenue expectations for KLA as well?

    我想雙擊您對 WFE 的期望,然後您如何看待您的模型。您是否正在考慮今年上半年或下半年 WFE 相對平衡,然後也在您對 KLA 的遠期收入預期之內?

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • I think my statements earlier were more -- were KLA-centric, but I don't think we're going to deviate that much from overall WFE. Obviously, that gets into the other businesses and markets that we don't participate in. But generally, I would expect that we're at a higher run rate, a WFE run rate in the first part of this year than we are in the second. So yes, I would think that it's probably down. I don't know how much it's down, but it's probably lower in the second half than the first half.

    我認為我之前的陳述更多是以 KLA 為中心,但我認為我們不會偏離整個 WFE。顯然,這進入了我們不參與的其他業務和市場。但總的來說,我預計我們今年上半年的運行率,WFE 運行率高於我們在第二。所以是的,我認為它可能會下降。我不知道它下降了多少,但下半年可能比上半年低。

  • Joseph Michael Quatrochi - Senior Equity Analyst

    Joseph Michael Quatrochi - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And then just kind of maybe bigger picture. But one of your larger customers have talked about a temporary decline in the 7-nanometer utilization rates, but at the same time, also talking about working with their customers to introduce to backfill capacity, introduce new products over the next few years. I guess how do we think about that dynamic in the context of, like, your print check business and the mask shop?

    知道了。然後可能是更大的圖景。但是你們的一個大客戶談到了 7 納米利用率的暫時下降,但與此同時,也談到與他們的客戶合作,以引入回填產能,在未來幾年推出新產品。我想我們如何在您的印刷支票業務和麵具店等背景下考慮這種動態?

  • Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • I think that it's much more -- it's baked into our assumptions on the overall reduction in WFE that they're going to be shifting. But I don't think the mix between our products is really going to change for that period if you think about where logic is positioned.

    我認為這更多——它融入了我們對 WFE 整體減少的假設,他們將要改變。但我不認為我們產品之間的組合在那個時期真的會改變,如果你考慮邏輯的定位。

  • The other thing, and Bren mentioned, as you know, as EUV gets increasingly adopted, even if it's at lower capacity, we'll see more demand for print check and in reticle in general. So the strength of those businesses, we think, continues on a relative basis, albeit in a declining overall market for some period of time. But those are product lines that right now, we don't -- we're still supply-constrained in terms of our ability to support customer needs on those products.

    另一件事,Bren 提到,正如你所知,隨著 EUV 越來越多地被採用,即使它的產能較低,我們也會看到對印刷檢查和光罩的更多需求。因此,我們認為,這些業務的實力在相對基礎上繼續存在,儘管在一段時間內整體市場處於下滑狀態。但這些產品線現在我們還沒有——就我們支持客戶對這些產品的需求的能力而言,我們仍然受到供應限制。

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. If 7-nanometer capacity demand falls off, right, and we don't expect to impact, you would expect to see wafer starts maybe come down at that node, most of the investment we expect to see is at the more advanced nodes. Customers are always looking to optimize the productivity of their capacity. Depending on their views, it could be temporary, in which case they'll idle some of that capacity or run it at a lower utilization rate.

    是的。如果 7 納米容量需求下降,對,我們預計不會受到影響,您會期望看到晶圓啟動可能會在該節點下降,我們預計看到的大部分投資都在更先進的節點。客戶總是希望優化其產能的生產率。根據他們的觀點,這可能是暫時的,在這種情況下,他們將閒置部分產能或以較低的利用率運行。

  • And then if in the longer run, they feel like they can move it, they'll try to move it. They do have the technical challenges though that if you were to move from 7 nanometer to 5 nanometer, you have the introduction of EUV from node to node. So the technical challenges of trying to reuse that capacity is much more difficult in this environment than it was, let's say, 10 years ago.

    然後,如果從長遠來看,他們覺得自己可以移動它,他們就會嘗試移動它。他們確實面臨技術挑戰,但如果你要從 7 納米轉移到 5 納米,你就會在節點之間引入 EUV。因此,與 10 年前相比,在這種環境下嘗試重用該容量的技術挑戰要困難得多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • Your services business last year was strong, right? It was up 15%. Historically, like this segment does not decline during downturns, right? Very stable subscription services contracts, expanding support opportunities, legacy nodes, more software attach, et cetera. But you do have a transactional part of the business, right, tied to manufacturing activity. You've got your EPC services business in there as well and the impact from China export control. So lots of puts and takes. So does the team believe it can grow services revenues this year?

    去年你們的服務業務很強勁,對吧?它上漲了 15%。從歷史上看,這個細分市場在經濟低迷時期不會下降,對吧?非常穩定的訂閱服務合同、不斷擴展的支持機會、遺留節點、更多軟件附加等等。但是您確實有業務的交易部分,對,與製造活動相關。你在那裡也有你的 EPC 服務業務以及中國出口管制的影響。如此多的投入和投入。那麼該團隊是否相信今年可以增加服務收入?

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Yes, you're right. We do have some puts and takes. But if you look at the -- and just for some history, right, if you look at our service business overall as it relates to Semi process control, we've only had 1 down year going back at least the last 20, maybe 25 years, and that was in 2009, where we're facing an extremely challenging macroeconomic environment.

    是的。你是對的。我們確實有一些投入和投入。但是如果你看看 - 只是為了一些歷史,如果你看看我們與半過程控制相關的整體服務業務,我們只有 1 年下降至少可以追溯到過去 20 年,也許是 25 年年,那是在 2009 年,我們面臨著極具挑戰性的宏觀經濟環境。

  • So you're right that when things slow down, particularly in memory, as an example, customers will scale back in terms of the utilization of their equipment. But we still have a lot of equipment that's coming off of warranty that's going into contract that's been shipped over the last few years. Customers continue to run the installed base typically to support, even if they're not investing in new capability.

    所以你是對的,當事情變慢時,特別是在內存中,例如,客戶將縮減其設備的利用率。但是我們仍然有很多設備已經過保修期,這些設備在過去幾年已經交付了合同。客戶通常會繼續運行已安裝的基礎以提供支持,即使他們沒有投資新功能也是如此。

  • EPC is a little more transactional, and I would expect EPC service to be flatter year-to-year. So I don't think we're going to grow like we did this year, where we grew 15%. But I would expect to see a mid- to high single-digit growth rate in services overall.

    EPC 更具交易性,我預計 EPC 服務會逐年平穩。所以我認為我們不會像今年那樣增長,我們增長了 15%。但我預計整體服務業將出現中高個位數的增長率。

  • So I think when you look at our overall business, and we talked about Semi PC growing roughly in line overall with the market, maybe a little better than that. Service is growing mid- to high single digits. And I think EPC systems is going to be somewhere in less than -- have a decline, but a decline that's less than what we're seeing on the WFE side. So -- because we have had a weaker '22, that business is much closer to consumers. And so I think they entered into some of the more challenging environment a little bit sooner, but that's how we're thinking about the overall.

    所以我認為,當你看一下我們的整體業務時,我們談到 Semi PC 的增長與市場整體增長大致一致,可能比這好一點。服務正在以中高個位數增長。而且我認為 EPC 系統將在不到某個地方出現下降,但下降幅度小於我們在 WFE 方面看到的下降幅度。所以 - 因為我們的 22 年較弱,所以該業務更接近消費者。所以我認為他們更快地進入了一些更具挑戰性的環境,但這就是我們對整體的思考方式。

  • Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • And the other factor, Harlan, when you consider our business, our service is pure service, as we talked about. And also it's really not about consumables. So from the standpoint, their capacity goes down, some of the consumable related service business will go down as a result. Ours, because of the nature of what we do, and often, even if customers are constraining capacity, they're trying to optimize yield, and so that's why I think our service fares pretty well in this kind of environment.

    另一個因素,Harlan,當你考慮我們的業務時,我們的服務是純粹的服務,正如我們所說的那樣。而且它真的與消耗品無關。所以從這個角度來看,他們的產能下降,一些與消耗品相關的服務業務也會因此下降。我們的,因為我們所做的事情的性質,而且通常,即使客戶限制容量,他們也在努力優化產量,所以這就是為什麼我認為我們的服務在這種環境下表現得很好。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • Great. I appreciate that. And strong patterning growth in 2022, I think patterning was up like 50%. Obviously, part of that is being driven by EUV, Deep EUV litho adoption. And if you look at ASML's results, I mean that continues strong. But I think they're looking for EUV litho systems being signed off, units being signed off this year to grow, like, 40%, both for EUV and Deep EUV. So litho shipments are always sort of a good forward indicator for your business. You've got positive exposure via your wafer, your reticle inspection systems, print check, litho metrology. Is this going to be one of the -- it was clearly a bigger driver last year. Is this going to be one of the bigger drivers of the potential outperformance this year for the team?

    偉大的。我很感激。以及 2022 年強勁的圖案化增長,我認為圖案化增長了 50%。顯然,部分原因是由 EUV、Deep EUV 光刻技術的採用推動的。如果你看一下 ASML 的結果,我的意思是它繼續保持強勁。但我認為他們正在尋找 EUV 光刻系統被簽署,今年簽署的單位將增長 40%,包括 EUV 和 Deep EUV。因此,光刻出貨量始終是您業務的一個很好的前瞻性指標。您通過晶圓、光罩檢測系統、印刷檢查、光刻計量獲得了正曝光。這是否會成為其中之一——它在去年顯然是一個更大的驅動因素。這是否會成為球隊今年可能取得優異成績的更大驅動因素之一?

  • Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, I think you're right in some regards. And certainly, when it comes to technology transitions, a lot of what's driving the metrology is related to those tech transitions such as [data] all around, right? The work that's going on there is driving it. But there is a part of that business that's tied to capacity. So that's really puts and takes inside of that business. So it's not entirely just related to the tech.

    嗯,我認為你在某些方面是對的。當然,在技術轉型方面,很多推動計量學的因素都與這些技術轉型有關,例如 [data] ,對吧?那裡正在進行的工作正在推動它。但該業務的一部分與產能相關。因此,這確實是該業務的一部分。所以它不僅僅與技術有關。

  • And again, when you look at the overall market growth in the different segments, our view of lithography as part of WFE is a little different than what was stated maybe overall because of the deferred revenue component of that. So again, I think KLA is going to do well as we go forward in '23. And the metrology, as it pertains to technology advancement development, will be strong. And both in -- as both metrology and overlay related as companies, our customers try to advance in terms of the tech nodes that have a lot of challenges in those 2 areas.

    再說一次,當您查看不同細分市場的整體市場增長時,我們對光刻作為 WFE 一部分的看法與整體陳述略有不同,因為其中的遞延收入部分。因此,我再次認為,隨著我們在 23 年的前進,KLA 會做得很好。與技術進步發展相關的計量學將很強大。而且無論是在計量學還是覆蓋方面都與公司相關,我們的客戶試圖在這兩個領域面臨很多挑戰的技術節點方面取得進步。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • If you look at the full year WFE view of down 20%, right, in the kind of the mid $70 billion, that view -- that overall view doesn't seem to have changed in the last 3 months. But something else seems to have downshifted in the commentary from you and your peers. I'm just curious if -- Rick or Bren, if you would take a look back in the last 3 months, what has changed from an assumption perspective? Is there a certain part of the market that you are exposed to? Like, has there been any change in the last 3 months? Because the overall number doesn't seem to have changed.

    如果你看一下 WFE 全年下降 20% 的觀點,正確的是,在 700 億美元左右,這種觀點——總體觀點在過去 3 個月似乎沒有改變。但在您和您的同齡人的評論中,似乎還有其他事情有所緩和。我只是好奇——瑞克或布倫,如果你回顧一下過去 3 個月,從假設的角度來看發生了什麼變化?您是否接觸過市場的某個部分?比如,最近 3 個月有什麼變化嗎?因為總體數字似乎沒有變化。

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Vivek, it's a good question. Not much has changed, frankly, in terms of how we've looked at it. Obviously, we had the strength of Q4, which contributes to the marginal weakness in the March quarter, where we had $184 million in incremental revenue above the midpoint in December. And so that clearly came out of the March quarter. So that puts a little bit of pressure on the March quarter. But as we look at the overall year, it generally looks very similar to what we had 3 months ago. So I don't think that much is different. It feels pretty consistent.

    是的,Vivek,這是個好問題。坦率地說,就我們看待它的方式而言,並沒有太大改變。顯然,我們擁有第四季度的實力,這導致了 3 月份季度的邊際疲軟,我們在 12 月份的中點之上增加了 1.84 億美元的收入。因此,這顯然來自三月季度。因此,這給三月季度帶來了一點壓力。但是當我們看一下全年時,它看起來與我們 3 個月前的情況非常相似。所以我不認為有什麼不同。感覺還挺一致的。

  • Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, I guess, yes, it's kind of similar to what we said. But at the time, it wasn't what a lot of customers were saying yet, right? So at that time, there hadn't been as many announcements for CapEx reductions. So we kind of forecast that, that was going to happen. And so with that kind of the news, it kind of got to this point where we're about where we said. That wasn't the case when we first viewed what was probably going to be a correction in '23. So I would say it's kind of landed where we thought, but there was a fair amount of news in getting there as people said they're going to cut their CapEx.

    嗯,我想,是的,這有點類似於我們所說的。但在當時,這還不是很多客戶所說的,對吧?所以當時並沒有那麼多關於削減資本支出的公告。所以我們有點預測,那將會發生。所以有了這樣的新聞,它有點到了我們所說的地方。當我們第一次看到 23 年可能會出現的修正時,情況並非如此。所以我想說它有點像我們想像的那樣降落,但是有很多消息稱他們將削減資本支出。

  • Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Got it. And for my follow-up, if I'm hearing you, March is perhaps not the trough quarter for the year that -- I don't know, maybe it's June or September. Any way to gauge what that kind of conceptually, the trough quarter could be? Because when I look at memory, I think it's only, what, 15% of process control in Q1. Is that the trough for memory? Or can it get even lower than that?

    知道了。對於我的後續行動,如果我聽到你的話,3 月可能不是當年的低谷季度——我不知道,也許是 6 月或 9 月。有什麼方法可以衡量這種概念上的低谷季度可能是什麼?因為當我查看內存時,我認為 Q1 中只有 15% 的過程控制。那是記憶的槽嗎?還是可以比這更低?

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Vivek, I'm not going to guide each of the quarters. It feels today like things are stronger likely in the first half. There are some investments at the very end of the year that could cause the December quarter to be stronger depending on the timing of the fab construction. And so there are some things in -- I'll call it, in Q4 that could swing the quarter-to-quarter one way or the other. But as I said earlier, I think that the second half is likely lower than the first half, and I'll stick with that for now.

    是的,Vivek,我不會指導每個季度。今天感覺上半年的情況可能會更強勁。年底有一些投資可能會導致 12 月季度表現更強勁,具體取決於晶圓廠建設的時間。因此,在第 4 季度,有一些事情——我稱之為,可能會以一種或另一種方式左右搖擺。但正如我之前所說,我認為下半年可能會低於上半年,我現在會堅持下去。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Brian Chin with Stifel.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

  • Brian Edward Chin - Associate

    Brian Edward Chin - Associate

  • Maybe just to double back on the performance obligations. It sounds like -- I could be a little bit off here. But in terms of 12 months RPOs, maybe it's -- maybe ended the December quarter, kind of a $6 billion-ish kind of level. Is that about right? And is there a point in terms of as you draw that down a little bit maybe over the next few to several quarters, is there a point in the year you can kind of point to where you think that number will stabilize?

    也許只是為了加倍履行履約義務。聽起來——我可能有點偏離這裡。但就 12 個月的 RPO 而言,也許它 - 可能在 12 月季度結束時達到 60 億美元左右的水平。這樣說對嗎?就您可能在接下來的幾個到幾個季度中將其減少一點而言,是否有一點可以指出這一年中您認為該數字將趨於穩定的點?

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • So we're going to report -- we'll likely file our Q sometime in the next day or so, so you'll have the specifics on it. But your math is about right. It's a little bit higher than that, and we'd still expect 45% to 55% beyond 12 months. And as I said, some of the adjustments that were made were related to some more clarity around China export restrictions, so that was a factor in some of our adjustments.

    所以我們要報告——我們可能會在第二天左右的某個時候提交我們的 Q,所以你會有關於它的細節。但你的數學是正確的。它比這高一點,我們仍然預計 12 個月後會有 45% 到 55%。正如我所說,所做的一些調整與中國出口限制更加明確有關,因此這是我們進行一些調整的一個因素。

  • I think as we progress through the year, look, we'll see how the order flow plays out over time. But -- and there's still work to be done in terms of whether we are able to continue to get some licenses that we're still working through in some time. That could have an effect as well. But I don't expect to see -- I think it's going to level off. I don't expect to see it come down all that much. I think it'll level off as we move forward over the course of the year. But look, things can change, and that's the best visibility I have today.

    我認為隨著我們這一年的進展,看,我們將看到訂單流如何隨著時間的推移發揮作用。但是——就我們是否能夠繼續獲得一些我們仍在努力獲得的許可證而言,還有很多工作要做。這也可能會產生影響。但我不希望看到——我認為它會趨於平穩。我不希望看到它下降那麼多。我認為隨著我們在這一年中的前進,它會趨於平穩。但是你看,事情會發生變化,這是我今天能看到的最好的情況。

  • Brian Edward Chin - Associate

    Brian Edward Chin - Associate

  • Okay. That's fair. And this is probably just digging into a question that was recently asked. But I mean, I think the math might suggest that in the March quarter, the memory system revenue could be something like $250 million, maybe $250 million to $300 million. Maybe that's not trough, but it seems pretty low comparable to recent periods and going back a little ways. And so maybe not trough, but not too far off. Is that kind of an unfair conclusion?

    好的。這還算公平。這可能只是在深入探討最近提出的一個問題。但我的意思是,我認為數學可能表明,在 3 月季度,內存系統收入可能約為 2.5 億美元,可能是 2.5 億至 3 億美元。也許這不是低谷,但與最近幾個時期相比似乎相當低,並且回溯了一些方式。所以也許不是低谷,但也不會太遠。這是一個不公平的結論嗎?

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • I would have to -- yes, you're right. I mean, it's lower than it has been for a few years. I don't know if it was lower in any given quarter back, let's say, in late 2018 or early 2019 in that time frame. I'd have to look. But it's certainly, as a percent of the total, as low as it's been for some time.

    我必須——是的,你是對的。我的意思是,它比幾年前的水平要低。我不知道在任何給定的四分衛中它是否更低,比方說,在那個時間範圍內的 2018 年底或 2019 年初。我得看看。但肯定的是,作為總數的百分比,一段時間以來一直很低。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

  • Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

    Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

  • The revenue decline in the March quarter is a little more severe than we kind of expected. I guess, we had thought the revenue is relatively stable, especially given the large backlog you had going into the quarter. Is it just that you were able to pull in some of the revenues into the December quarter? Or was it my assumption that revenue could be stable in the near term was incorrect?

    三月份季度的收入下降比我們預期的要嚴重一些。我想,我們曾認為收入相對穩定,尤其是考慮到您進入本季度的大量積壓訂單。僅僅是你們能夠將部分收入拉入 12 月季度嗎?還是我假設收入在短期內可以穩定是不正確的?

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sidney, it's a great question, and you're absolutely right. It pulled in into the December quarter. When we started the quarter, we had risked out some of the…

    西德尼,這是一個很好的問題,你完全正確。它進入了 12 月季度。當我們開始本季度時,我們冒了一些風險……

  • Operator

    Operator

  • It seems we have lost speaker connection. Please hold, Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by as we work through this technical difficulty.

    似乎我們失去了揚聲器連接。女士們,先生們,請稍候,在我們解決這一技術難題時請稍等片刻。

  • (technical difficulty)

    (技術難度)

  • Kevin M. Kessel - VP of IR

    Kevin M. Kessel - VP of IR

  • Sorry, we got cut out there. I know it's in the middle of Bren's answer to Sidney.

    對不起,我們被切斷了。我知道它在 Bren 對 Sidney 的回答中。

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • So Sidney, let me just start again. Your question was about just the quarter-to-quarter changes. And you're absolutely right that we did see the strength in Q4, and that was a pull forward from the March quarter.

    所以西德尼,讓我重新開始。你的問題只是關於季度到季度的變化。你說得對,我們確實看到了第四季度的實力,這是對三月份季度的一個推動。

  • As we were looking at the business back in October, we had some systems where we were dealing with some supply chain issues, particularly as it relates to broadband plasma and reticle inspection products. As we work through the quarter, we were able to work with those suppliers, get the parts we needed, run through our qualification processes and complete those tools.

    當我們在 10 月份回顧業務時,我們有一些系統在處理一些供應鏈問題,特別是與寬帶等離子和光罩檢查產品有關的問題。在我們整個季度的工作中,我們能夠與這些供應商合作,獲得我們需要的零件,運行我們的資格流程並完成這些工具。

  • Customers, given the demand and balance we've been dealing with for some time on these products, our ability to supply relative to where demand is, we're more than willing to take the products when we had them finished. So when you add the 2 quarters together, the number is basically the same. And our view here is, is we're going to keep the line moving, particularly as it relates to getting these systems out the door to meet customer requirements. And so we finished them, and we shipped them at the end of the quarter.

    客戶,考慮到我們在這些產品上已經處理了一段時間的需求和平衡,我們相對於需求所在的供應能力,我們非常願意在完成產品後接受這些產品。所以當你把兩個季度加在一起的時候,這個數字基本是一樣的。我們在這裡的觀點是,我們是否要保持生產線的運轉,特別是因為它與將這些系統推出市場以滿足客戶要求有關。所以我們完成了它們,並在本季度末發貨。

  • Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

    Shek Ming Ho - Director & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. Can I ask a second question? You talked about expecting operating expenses to come down throughout the year. What is a good level to think about exiting this calendar year? Talk about maybe what are the areas you see more -- you'll see more of the cuts. And are there any of the actions impacting the gross margin positively as well?

    好的。這很有幫助。我可以問第二個問題嗎?您談到預計全年運營費用會下降。考慮退出這個日曆年的好水平是多少?談談你看到更多的區域——你會看到更多的削減。是否有任何行動也對毛利率產生積極影響?

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I think the gross margin guidance we gave earlier stands for itself and reflects some of the actions that we're taking just to deal with. One of the challenges in our factories is we're coming off, which drove our inventory issue that we had this quarter as well as we're coming off pretty high growth expectations in a pretty short period of time.

    是的。我認為我們之前給出的毛利率指導代表了它本身,並反映了我們正在採取的一些行動來應對。我們工廠面臨的挑戰之一是我們正在走下坡路,這導致了我們本季度遇到的庫存問題,而且我們在很短的時間內實現了相當高的增長預期。

  • It wasn't that long ago when people were talking about $100 billion of WFE this year and $105 billion or more into '23, so $100 billion in '22. And so there's been about $30 billion plus of WFE that's come out in a relatively short period of time. That had an effect on some of the buying that we've done to drive our supply chain the way that we have. But also, it will have to deal with some of the underutilization of the factory resources that were put in place to support higher volume levels.

    就在不久之前,人們還在談論今年 1000 億美元的 WFE 和 23 年的 1050 億美元或更多,所以 22 年的 1000 億美元。因此,在相對較短的時間內出現了大約 300 億美元以上的 WFE。這對我們為按照現有方式推動供應鏈而進行的一些採購產生了影響。而且,它還必須解決一些工廠資源未充分利用的問題,這些資源是為支持更高的產量水平而設置的。

  • But the guidance I gave in terms of gross margin reflects those actions and what we plan to do. I would think that by the end of the year, we'll probably be looking at a quarterly run rate based on how we're running the business today. And our expectations for top line, somewhere in that, I'll say, somewhere around $530 million to $535 million. So we'll see it trend down as we go according to each quarter, more or less.

    但我給出的毛利率指導反映了這些行動以及我們計劃做的事情。我認為到今年年底,我們可能會根據我們今天的業務運營方式來查看季度運行率。我們對收入的預期,我會說,大約在 5.3 億美元到 5.35 億美元之間。因此,我們會看到它在每個季度或多或少的情況下呈下降趨勢。

  • And depending on how we see the top line evolving, not only as we look at the second half of the year, but as you start to look at '24 and size '24, then we'll come to a determination whether that is appropriate level for us to be at or whether we need to do more or less from there.

    並且取決於我們如何看待頂線的演變,不僅是我們看下半年,而且當你開始關注 '24 和'24 尺碼時,我們將確定這是否合適我們要達到的水平,或者我們是否需要從那裡做更多或更少的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Atif Malik with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題將來自花旗的 Atif Malik。

  • Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

    Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

  • Sorry. Can you hear me?

    對不起。你能聽到我嗎?

  • Kevin M. Kessel - VP of IR

    Kevin M. Kessel - VP of IR

  • Yes, we can hear you.

    是的,我們能聽到你的聲音。

  • Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, we can hear you.

    是的,我們能聽到你的聲音。

  • Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

    Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

  • All right. So I have a question on the memory investments. Are you expecting memory CapEx reduction to be broad this year? Or just 1 or 2 memory makers?

    好的。所以我對內存投資有疑問。您是否預計今年內存資本支出會大幅減少?或者只有 1 或 2 個內存製造商?

  • Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • I'm expecting it to be pretty broad. And look, it'll vary by customer. And as you know, it's not our strongest market in terms of overall exposure, and we tend to be more focused on the technical part, right, technology roadmaps, less so than capacity. So when we look at it, I think it's pretty broad across all our customers, but varies according to some of them, right? I don't think they're all completely consistent.

    我希望它非常廣泛。看,它會因客戶而異。正如你所知,就整體曝光率而言,這不是我們最強大的市場,我們更傾向於關注技術部分,對,技術路線圖,而不是產能。因此,當我們審視它時,我認為它在我們所有客戶中都非常廣泛,但會因其中一些客戶而異,對嗎?我認為它們並不完全一致。

  • Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

    Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

  • Got it. And then on China WFE, are you expecting China WFE to be down as much as overall WFE? And what's holding China WFE? Is it the trailing edge investments? And what's driving higher investments on the trailing edge? Is it also end market or maybe higher process control intensity?

    知道了。然後關於中國 WFE,您是否預計中國 WFE 會像整體 WFE 一樣下跌?是什麼支撐著中國WFE?是後緣投資嗎?是什麼推動了對後緣的更高投資?它也是終端市場還是更高的過程控制強度?

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Most of the logic investment has been at the legacy nodes. The other thing that gives us some confidence about '23 that I had mentioned in the earlier answer was the infrastructure investment that's happening in China for mask investment, mask infrastructure and for wafer infrastructure, which is parts of WFE that we're exposed to that some of our peers are.

    是的。大多數邏輯投資都在遺留節點上。另一件讓我們對我在之前的回答中提到的 23 年充滿信心的事情是在中國進行的掩模投資、掩模基礎設施和晶圓基礎設施的基礎設施投資,這是我們接觸到的 WFE 的一部分我們的一些同行是。

  • So when I look at the overall, inclusive for KLA, inclusive of what we expect in export restriction, which hasn't changed from what we talked about a quarter ago, I think overall, we'll see our business in China likely decline less than the overall WFE.

    因此,當我看一下整體,包括 KLA,包括我們對出口限制的預期,這與我們一個季度前談論的內容沒有改變,我認為總體而言,我們將看到我們在中國的業務下降的可能性較小比整體 WFE。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Tim Arcuri with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Tim Arcuri。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • There was a question before about EUV, and I'm wondering if you can sort of help give a number in terms of how much of your revenue attaches directly to EUV. There's not a ton of inspection in the litho cell, but you certainly get pulled along with anything that helps sort of horizontal scaling, so. And obviously, EUV does that. So I'm kind of wondering if you can handicap how much of your revenue gets carried along with EUV, and then I had a follow-up.

    之前有一個關於 EUV 的問題,我想知道你是否可以幫助給出一個數字,說明你的收入中有多少直接與 EUV 相關。光刻單元中沒有大量的檢查,但你肯定會被任何有助於水平縮放的東西拖走,所以。顯然,EUV 可以做到這一點。所以我有點想知道你是否可以限制你的收入中有多少是與 EUV 一起進行的,然後我進行了跟進。

  • Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes, Tim, we don't really break it out like that, but I can kind of give it a shot and talk about applications that are related. The main one, the most obvious one is -- that's new is print check, and that is inspection that's directly related to EUV. And I think the other one is, of course, all the reticle stuff. There is some overlay work that also happens relative to some of the matching challenges associated with EUV.

    是的,蒂姆,我們並沒有真正把它分解成那樣,但我可以試一試並談談相關的應用程序。最主要的,最明顯的是——新的是打印檢查,這是與 EUV 直接相關的檢查。我認為另一個當然是所有十字線的東西。與 EUV 相關的一些匹配挑戰也發生了一些疊加工作。

  • So I would say part of each of those markets, and if you had to add them all up, probably 15% to 20% of what we're -- overall, what we're doing in those markets is probably related directly to EUV as opposed to additional scaling. We can do some work and come back on that because it has been growing. The print check part has been driving a lot of the growth that we're seeing in the Gen 5, in particular, work that we're seeing. So that's kind of how I'd handicap it. Bren?

    所以我想說每個市場的一部分,如果你必須把它們全部加起來,可能是我們的 15% 到 20%——總的來說,我們在這些市場上所做的可能與 EUV 直接相關而不是額外的縮放。我們可以做一些工作然後回來,因為它一直在增長。打印檢查部分一直在推動我們在第 5 代中看到的許多增長,特別是我們看到的工作。所以這就是我阻礙它的方式。布倫?

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • I think that's good.

    我覺得這樣很好。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • Awesome, Rick. Super helpful. Bren, I had a question for you on process control systems. It seems like the guidance -- well, actually, it's a 2-part question. It seems like the March guidance implies something in the 16.5% range for process control segment -- systems. So I wanted you to confirm that, first of all.

    太棒了,里克。超級有幫助。 Bren,我有一個關於過程控制系統的問題要問你。看起來像是指南——好吧,實際上,這是一個由兩部分組成的問題。似乎 3 月份的指導意味著過程控制部分 - 系統在 16.5% 的範圍內。所以我想讓你確認一下,首先。

  • And then the real question is the timing of when the process control systems bottoms. Because Lam's bottoming in March, but it seems like if I take low to mid-70s WFE, I assume you don't lose much WFE share. It's kind of hard to see the number not bottoming until you get to 1.1 roughly and you're still at 1.6. So can you sort of answer those for me?

    然後真正的問題是過程控制系統何時觸底。因為 Lam 在 3 月份觸底,但似乎如果我將 WFE 降至 70 年代中期,我認為你不會失去太多 WFE 份額。很難看到這個數字沒有觸底,直到你粗略地達到 1.1 而你仍然在 1.6。那麼你能幫我回答一下嗎?

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So your first question about margin, and of course, we don't guide the individual segments. But your assumption of where we are in March is about right. Obviously, we're going to manage the whole company to the top-level numbers that we provided and not necessarily focus on the individual pieces.

    是的。所以你的第一個問題是關於保證金的,當然,我們不會指導各個細分市場。但是你對我們三月份所處位置的假設是正確的。顯然,我們將把整個公司管理到我們提供的頂級數字,而不一定專注於個別部分。

  • The drop-off that you -- and again, I'm not going to get into each of the quarters from a guidance point of view, but that would imply a fairly low number and then imply that I think that we would drop off more than overall WFE, current WFE expectations, which are down about 20% overall. So it's hard to say how much happens when. But 1.1 feels like a pretty low number.

    你的下降 - 再一次,我不會從指導的角度進入每個季度,但這意味著一個相當低的數字然後暗示我認為我們會下降更多與總體 WFE 相比,當前的 WFE 預期總體下降了約 20%。所以很難說什麼時候發生了多少。但是 1.1 感覺像是一個相當低的數字。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our next question will come from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

    (操作員說明)我們的下一個問題將來自 Krish Sankar 和 Cowen and Company。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Rick, my first question is, just to play the devil's advocate. Last quarter, you said the process control argument was site-to-tech roadmap and transition and not as much as to capacity, i.e., less technical. But then, it seems like process control is not immune to the cyclicality. So I'm just kind of curious, like, are these just, like, regular cyclical issue? Is process control actually really driven by tech and not capacity purchases? And long lead time inspection doesn't matter anymore? I'm just kind of curious. Or do you think we get back to trend line in a couple of quarters? Any color on that would be helpful, and then I have a follow-on.

    里克,我的第一個問題是,只是唱反調。上個季度,你說過程控制的論點是站點到技術的路線圖和過渡,而不是產能,即技術含量較低。但是,過程控制似乎也不能倖免於週期性。所以我只是有點好奇,就像,這些只是定期的周期性問題嗎?過程控制真的是由技術驅動的,而不是容量購買嗎?長時間的檢查不再重要了嗎?我只是有點好奇。或者您認為我們會在幾個季度內回到趨勢線嗎?上面的任何顏色都會有幫助,然後我有後續的。

  • Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. I mean, I think it is the case, the process control, our business, in particular, is tied both to capacity, but also to tech transitions, and it's certainly not just a tech transition. So I think you'll see the people that are more tied to capacity coming down more in this environment, and people that are tied more to pure tech holding up, and we're kind of in the middle of those 2. Obviously, we have capacity businesses as they relate to, say, metrology that gets added as you add wafer starts. But the work that's going on in reticle and in advanced patterning inspections will be related much more to the Gen 4/Gen 5 stuff, which won't see as much of a decline.

    是的。我的意思是,我認為情況確實如此,過程控制,尤其是我們的業務,既與產能相關,也與技術轉型相關,而且肯定不僅僅是技術轉型。所以我認為你會看到在這種環境下,與容量更相關的人會更多地下降,而與純技術更相關的人會堅持下去,而我們處於這兩者的中間。顯然,我們擁有與晶圓啟動相關的容量業務,例如計量學。但是,正在進行的掩模版和高級圖案檢查方面的工作將更多地與第 4 代/第 5 代產品相關,而這些產品不會出現太大的下降。

  • So I think we're kind of -- we're more -- we have some more upside to capacity than maybe we did years ago. But we have -- at this point, certainly, a large part of our business is associated with technology transfers, and there's more transfers happening now than there have been in quite a while because the DRAM guys, memory is -- as low as their level of investment is in capacity, as in none, they're still driving technology transitions. And we know there are multiple players now in logic trying to move forward on that.

    所以我認為我們有點 - 我們更多 - 我們比幾年前有更多的產能優勢。但是我們 - 在這一點上,當然,我們的大部分業務都與技術轉讓有關,並且現在發生的轉讓比很長一段時間內發生的更多,因為 DRAM 傢伙,內存 - 和他們一樣低投資水平在於產能,與無投資一樣,它們仍在推動技術轉型。我們知道現在有多個參與者在邏輯上試圖推進這一點。

  • So I'd say it's a balanced approach, which is why we think we'll outperform this year, but not -- we're not going to hold flat relative to that because we definitely had some capacity components. So no, I don't say that we're immune to it, but I think we're less sensitive than pure capacity plays.

    所以我想說這是一種平衡的方法,這就是為什麼我們認為我們今年會跑贏大市,但不會——我們不會持平,因為我們肯定有一些產能組成部分。所以不,我並不是說我們對此免疫,但我認為我們不如純粹的能力發揮那麼敏感。

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Krish, we did share the market move in 2021, right, from below 6 percentile to the high 7 percentile. And so that clearly was driven by, not just the technology transition that we talked a lot about, but also higher exposure to capacity opportunities. And we talked about this at Investor Day that with scaling with a more robust design environment, less reuse overall and more process flows, that our customers were investing more in capacity from KLA in capacity environments because they're managing each design, test design rules in different ways, different process flows as [there's] a change in complexity into the fab. And for all those reasons, we were seeing more adoption of process control in what we'll call a more mature state in the fab.

    是的,Krish,我們確實分享了 2021 年的市場走勢,從低於 6% 到 7% 的高位。因此,這顯然不僅受到我們經常談論的技術轉型的推動,而且受到更高的產能機會的影響。我們在投資者日談到了這一點,即通過使用更強大的設計環境進行擴展、減少整體重用和增加流程,我們的客戶在容量環境中對 KLA 的容量進行了更多投資,因為他們正在管理每個設計、測試設計規則以不同的方式,不同的流程隨著晶圓廠複雜性的變化而流動。由於所有這些原因,我們看到更多地採用過程控制,我們稱之為晶圓廠中更成熟的狀態。

  • So obviously, that's the part that falls off as customers adjust those capacity plans. But to Rick's point, most of our leverage is in the development area, and it has the fab scales. And so that's why we feel pretty good about dynamics driving our relative performance this year and a continuation of the SAM expansion that we've seen over the last couple of years.

    很明顯,這是隨著客戶調整這些容量計劃而下降的部分。但在里克看來,我們的大部分影響力都在開發領域,而且它具有晶圓廠規模。因此,這就是為什麼我們對推動我們今年相對錶現的動力以及我們在過去幾年中看到的 SAM 擴張的延續感到非常滿意。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. Super helpful. And as a quick follow-up, Intel just said a while ago, they extended their depreciation from 5 to 8 years. I'm just kind of curious if that -- does that mean that extending the useful life of semi-cap equipment from 5 to 8 years? And what does that mean for semi -- for process control tools? If you can extend the use of the equipment, does it mean that less purchasing over the longer term?

    知道了。超級有幫助。作為快速跟進,英特爾剛才說,他們將折舊期限從 5 年延長到 8 年。我只是有點好奇——這是否意味著將半電容設備的使用壽命從 5 年延長到 8 年?這對半過程控制工具意味著什麼?如果您可以延長設備的使用時間,是否意味著從長遠來看會減少購買量?

  • Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

    Richard P. Wallace - President, CEO & Executive Director

  • So the actual useful life of equipment has been going up for years, and we showed that in some of our service work. Part of why our service business is growing is because the life extends well beyond the typical -- the historical view of that. So I don't think that this is anything other than some recognition. There are different practices around the world with how customers choose to amortize or depreciate their equipment. So no, it has no effect.

    所以設備的實際使用壽命多年來一直在上升,我們在一些服務工作中證明了這一點。我們的服務業務之所以增長,部分原因是因為壽命遠遠超出了典型的——歷史上的觀點。所以我不認為這只是某種認可。對於客戶如何選擇攤銷或折舊他們的設備,世界各地有不同的做法。所以不,它沒有效果。

  • I think we're back to the same conversation about what drives reuse and what drives the next generation has to do with node migration and the ability for customers to -- in the case when they -- what we've seen a lot of now is filling in of the nodes that historically might have been just moved forward. So no, no change in a long-term view based on that decision by one customer.

    我認為我們又回到了關於什麼驅動重用以及什麼驅動下一代與節點遷移以及客戶的能力 - 在他們的情況下 - 我們現在看到的很多正在填充歷史上可能剛剛向前移動的節點。所以不,基於一位客戶的決定的長期觀點沒有改變。

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • And you're seeing demand rise in the legacy parts of the market, and that's been good for, not only the service business and extending useful life, but we're also restarting older generation tools. It's allowing us to extend the life of existing platforms that we're selling. Some of our challenges around supply chain has been restarting some of those older generation tools to meet those demands.

    你看到市場遺留部分的需求增加,這不僅對服務業務和延長使用壽命有好處,而且我們也在重啟老一代工具。它使我們能夠延長我們正在銷售的現有平台的壽命。我們圍繞供應鏈的一些挑戰是重新啟動一些老一代工具以滿足這些需求。

  • So I think it's a reflection of, at least, to Rick's point in how it affects equipment overall, reflection of the strength of some of those markets and those opportunities. The good thing is as we are able to sell those tools, the incremental R&D to support those markets is fairly low. And so it creates a nice vector, not only of growth for us, but also growth in our profitability and leverage in our model.

    所以我認為這至少反映了里克關於它如何影響整體設備的觀點,反映了其中一些市場的實力和那些機會。好消息是,由於我們能夠銷售這些工具,因此支持這些市場的增量研發相當低。因此,它創造了一個很好的載體,不僅是我們的增長,而且是我們盈利能力和模型槓桿率的增長。

  • Kevin M. Kessel - VP of IR

    Kevin M. Kessel - VP of IR

  • Chelsea, I believe we're coming close to the bottom of the hour, top of the hour. We probably have time for one more question.

    切爾西,我相信我們即將接近尾聲,也就是最高峰。我們可能還有時間再問一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our last question will come from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的最後一個問題將來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • I just had a couple of housekeeping questions, if that's okay. The China impact, the export restriction impact in the December quarter and what you're assuming for calendar '23, Bren, sorry if I missed this, but if you can remind us how big the impact could be -- or was in Q4 and how...

    我只是有幾個內務問題,如果可以的話。中國的影響,12 月季度的出口限制影響以及你對 23 年日曆的假設,布倫,如果我錯過了這個,很抱歉,但如果你能提醒我們影響有多大——或者在第四季度和如何...

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. So no change to what we talked about last quarter overall. We talked about a range of $500 million to $900 million across the business in terms of its impact to 2023, and so I don't have an update to that or a different view at this point. We'll see as we go, active engagement.

    是的。因此,我們上個季度的總體討論內容沒有變化。就其對 2023 年的影響而言,我們討論了 5 億至 9 億美元的範圍,因此我目前沒有對此的更新或不同的看法。我們會邊走邊看,積極參與。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • Got it. And then on DRAM versus NAND, I think when you were going through the WFE assumption, you mentioned your expectation for DRAM to be down more than NAND. But when you think about your own business, KLA's business, I would expect DRAM to be a little bit more resilient given EUV adoption insertion and the benefits there. Is that the right way to think about your business in calendar '23 on a relative basis?

    知道了。然後關於 DRAM 與 NAND,我想當你進行 WFE 假設時,你提到了你對 DRAM 的預期比 NAND 下降更多。但是當你考慮你自己的業務,KLA 的業務時,我希望 DRAM 考慮到 EUV 的採用插入和那裡的好處更具彈性。這是在相對基礎上考慮您在日曆 '23 中的業務的正確方法嗎?

  • Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

    Bren D. Higgins - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Yes. And I would expect our DRAM business to be stronger than our NAND as a percent. Yes.

    是的。是的。而且我預計我們的 DRAM 業務將比我們的 NAND 業務更強大。是的。

  • Kevin M. Kessel - VP of IR

    Kevin M. Kessel - VP of IR

  • Great. Thank you, everybody, for your time. We know it's a really busy day of earnings. We also apologize for the technical difficulties we had during the call, but we will be catching up with all of you here afterwards. So I appreciate the interest and speak soon.

    偉大的。謝謝大家抽出寶貴時間。我們知道這是非常忙碌的一天。對於我們在通話期間遇到的技術困難,我們也深表歉意,但之後我們會在這裡與大家見面。所以我很感激大家的興趣,很快就會發言。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes the KLA Corporation December 2022 Earnings Call and Webcast. Please disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

    謝謝你們,女士們,先生們。 KLA Corporation 2022 年 12 月的收益電話會議和網絡廣播到此結束。請此時斷開您的線路,祝您有美好的一天。