科磊 (KLAC) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Brittany, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the KLA Corporation September Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

下午好。我的名字是布列塔尼，今天我將成為你們的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 KLA Corporation 2022 年 9 月季度收益電話會議和網絡直播。 （操作員說明）謝謝。

I will now turn the call over to Kevin Kessel, Vice President of Investor Relations and Market Analytics. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係和市場分析副總裁 Kevin Kessel。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to KLA's Fiscal Q1 2023 Earnings Call to discuss the results of the September quarter and our December quarter outlook. Joining me is Rick Wallace, our Chief Executive Officer; and Bren Higgins, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，歡迎參加 KLA 的 2023 財年第一季度財報電話會議，討論 9 月季度的業績和我們 12 月季度的展望。加入我的還有我們的首席執行官 Rick Wallace；和我們的首席財務官 Bren Higgins。

During this call, we will discuss our results released today after the market close in the form of a press release, shareholder letter and slide deck, which can all be found on the KLA IR website.

在這次電話會議中，我們將以新聞稿、股東信函和幻燈片的形式討論我們今天在收市後發布的結果，這些都可以在 KLA IR 網站上找到。

Today's discussion is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. Whenever references are made to full year business performance, they are calendar year references. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results is in the earnings material posted on our website.

除非另有說明，今天的討論是在非公認會計原則財務基礎上提出的。每當提及全年業務績效時，它們都是日曆年參考。 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的詳細核對見我們網站上發布的收益材料。

Our IR website also contains future investor events as well as presentations, corporate governance information and links to our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report and quarterly reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q.

我們的投資者關係網站還包含未來的投資者活動以及演示文稿、公司治理信息和我們向 SEC 提交的文件的鏈接，包括我們最近的年度報告和關於表格 10-K 和 10-Q 的季度報告。

Our comments today are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factor disclosure in our SEC filings. Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on the call today, are also subject to those risks, and KLA cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

我們今天的評論受到我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中風險因素披露所反映的風險和不確定性的影響。任何前瞻性陳述，包括我們今天在電話會議上做出的陳述，也都存在這些風險，KLA 不能保證這些前瞻性陳述會成真。我們的實際結果可能與我們在前瞻性陳述中預測的結果大不相同。

Our CEO, Rick Wallace, will begin the call with some brief quarterly comments and highlights before discussing the semiconductor industry demand environment, including our business in China. Bren Higgins, our CFO, will conclude with the financial highlights as well as our guidance and outlook.

在討論半導體行業需求環境（包括我們在中國的業務）之前，我們的首席執行官 Rick Wallace 將以一些簡短的季度評論和亮點開始電話會議。我們的首席財務官布倫·希金斯 (Bren Higgins) 將總結財務亮點以及我們的指導和展望。

I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Rick Wallace. Rick?

我現在將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官里克·華萊士。瑞克？

Thank you all for joining us today. I'll spend some time sharing highlights of KLA's performance in the quarter, touch on our business in China and provide a brief perspective on the overall semiconductor demand environment.

感謝大家今天加入我們。我將花一些時間分享 KLA 在本季度的業績亮點，談談我們在中國的業務，並簡要介紹整個半導體需求環境。

Before we get into details, I'd like to first acknowledge our global KLA teams who have continued to demonstrate perseverance in navigating dynamic challenges to deliver for our customers. Their commitment is evident in our results.

在我們詳細介紹之前，我想首先感謝我們的全球 KLA 團隊，他們在應對動態挑戰以為我們的客戶提供服務方面繼續表現出毅力。他們的承諾在我們的結果中顯而易見。

KLA's September quarter demonstrates strong customer demand across major product groups. Specifically for this quarter, record revenue of $2.7 billion was at the top of the guidance range, growing 31% on a year-over-year basis and 10% sequentially. Quarterly non-GAAP net income topped $1 billion for the first time. GAAP earnings per share was $7.20 and non-GAAP EPS was $7.06, each above guidance ranges.

KLA 的 9 月季度顯示了主要產品組的強勁客戶需求。特別是本季度，創紀錄的 27 億美元收入處於指導範圍的頂端，同比增長 31%，環比增長 10%。季度非公認會計原則淨收入首次超過 10 億美元。 GAAP 每股收益為 7.20 美元，非 GAAP 每股收益為 7.06 美元，均高於指導範圍。

Our performance is a reflection of the increasingly essential role Process Control plays in the development of enabling technology and the long-term product road maps of our customers. As drivers for semiconductor demand continue to diversify beyond traditional PC and consumer-facing markets, Process Control is considered critical in enabling customers to execute on node and technology transitions. As this demand backdrop continues to evolve, our KLA operating model ensures focus on delivering for our customers, navigating supply chain challenges and continued investment in R&D.

我們的表現反映了過程控制在支持技術的開發和客戶的長期產品路線圖中所發揮的日益重要的作用。隨著半導體需求的驅動力繼續多樣化，超越了傳統的 PC 和麵向消費者的市場，過程控制被認為是使客戶能夠執行節點和技術轉換的關鍵。隨著這種需求背景的不斷發展，我們的 KLA 運營模式確保專注於為我們的客戶提供服務、應對供應鏈挑戰並持續投資於研發。

Now I will quickly summarize key highlights for the quarter. First, KLA continues to deliver strong relative outperformance versus peers and is positioned to be one of the fastest-growing Tier 1 WFE equipment suppliers in calendar 2022, substantially outperforming expected overall WFE market growth. Second, our Patterning systems revenue grew 49% sequentially and 67% on a year-over-year basis.

現在我將快速總結本季度的主要亮點。首先，KLA 繼續提供強勁的相對優於同行的表現，並被定位為 2022 年增長最快的一級 WFE 設備供應商之一，大大超過預期的整體 WFE 市場增長。其次，我們的圖案系統收入環比增長 49%，同比增長 67%。

Third, KLA delivered strong quarterly revenue in our SPTS segment. KLA has intensified efforts in advanced packaging and automotive electronics, leveraging the combined portfolios of both the Semiconductor Process Control and EPC groups. Fourth, the KLA Services business grew to $529 million in the September quarter, up 16% year-over-year. Finally, operating cash flow topped $1 billion for the first time, and we generated quarterly free cash flow of $927 million and free cash flow margin of 34%. For the 12 months ended September 30, 2022, total free cash flow grew from 37% to $3.14 billion.

第三，KLA 在我們的 SPTS 部門實現了強勁的季度收入。 KLA 利用半導體過程控制和 EPC 集團的組合產品組合，加大了在先進封裝和汽車電子領域的努力。第四，KLA 服務業務在 9 月季度增長至 5.29 億美元，同比增長 16%。最後，運營現金流首次突破 10 億美元，我們產生了 9.27 億美元的季度自由現金流和 34% 的自由現金流利潤率。截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日的 12 個月，總自由現金流從 37% 增長至 31.4 億美元。

Total capital returns in the quarter were $278 million, comprising $90 million in share repurchases and $188 million in dividends paid. Total capital returns over 12 months ended September 30 were $5.2 billion or 166% of free cash flow and included $4.6 billion in share repurchases and $664 million in dividends.

本季度的總資本回報為 2.78 億美元，其中包括 9,000 萬美元的股票回購和 1.88 億美元的股息支付。截至 9 月 30 日止 12 個月的總資本回報為 52 億美元，佔自由現金流的 166%，其中包括 46 億美元的股票回購和 6.64 億美元的股息。

Early in October, the U.S. government issued new regulations to control aspects of the U.S. semiconductor industry trade with China. Specific to KLA, a meaningful amount of our business in China is focused on legacy node investment, which is not the focus of the recent export restrictions. However, our system and service revenue will be adversely impacted going forward as we are unable to provide systems and support to certain customers for certain end users. We are assessing the broader implications and engaging collaboratively with the U.S. government to provide the necessary information about our products and services to fully determine the impact on our business operations moving forward.

10 月初，美國政府發布了新法規，以控制美國半導體行業與中國的貿易。具體到 KLA，我們在中國的大量業務都集中在傳統節點投資上，這不是最近出口限制的重點。然而，我們的系統和服務收入將受到不利影響，因為我們無法為某些最終用戶向某些客戶提供系統和支持。我們正在評估更廣泛的影響，並與美國政府合作，提供有關我們產品和服務的必要信息，以充分確定對我們未來業務運營的影響。

As we look at the industry demand environment, growth for the semiconductor industry has evolved to be more strategic with more diverse end market mix. For the near term, the recognized excess inventories driven by a slowdown in consumer electronics markets, such as PC and mobility, is having an impact on semiconductor device pricing, particularly in memory.

當我們審視行業需求環境時，半導體行業的增長已經演變為更具戰略性，終端市場組合更加多樣化。在短期內，由個人電腦和移動設備等消費電子市場放緩驅動的公認庫存過剩正在對半導體設備定價產生影響，尤其是在內存方面。

As a result, semiconductor customers are adjusting CY '23 CapEx budgets lower, with the largest impact to date coming from memory customers. However, long-term growth for the semiconductor equipment industry continues due to the prioritization of R&D investment at the leading edge, continued investment in legacy nodes and growth in enabling technologies such as advanced packaging. Considering all factors, KLA's long-term targets announced at our Investor Day in June remain intact.

因此，半導體客戶正在將 CY '23 資本支出預算調整得更低，迄今為止最大的影響來自內存客戶。然而，半導體設備行業的長期增長仍在繼續，原因是前沿研發投資的優先級、對傳統節點的持續投資以及先進封裝等使能技術的增長。考慮到所有因素，KLA 在 6 月投資者日宣布的長期目標保持不變。

In summary, KLA's September quarter results demonstrate sustainable outperformance and highlight the critical nature of KLA's products and services. Our teams continue to navigate and execute against dynamic challenges, and KLA remains well positioned with a comprehensive portfolio to meet evolving customer requirements. The KLA operating model and our strategic objectives are the foundation for our sustained technology leadership, wide competitive moat, leading financial performance, strong free cash flow generation and consistent returns to shareholders.

總而言之，KLA 9 月份的季度業績證明了可持續的優異表現，並突出了 KLA 產品和服務的關鍵性質。我們的團隊繼續在動態挑戰中導航和執行，KLA 仍然擁有全面的產品組合來滿足不斷變化的客戶需求。 KLA 運營模式和我們的戰略目標是我們持續的技術領先地位、廣泛的競爭護城河、領先的財務業績、強大的自由現金流產生和持續的股東回報的基礎。

Now our CFO, Bren Higgins, will review our September quarterly financial highlights and outlook. Bren?

現在，我們的首席財務官布倫·希金斯 (Bren Higgins) 將回顧我們 9 月份的季度財務亮點和展望。布倫?

Thank you. As you heard from Rick, KLA's September quarter results were strong, better than expected and demonstrated our consistent successful execution. While supply chain challenges continue in certain areas and are still limiting output, we have seen marginal improvement as new supplier capacity has come online to meet our requirements. Our continued focus on meeting customer needs while expanding market leadership, growing revenue, sustaining industry-leading growth and operating margins, generating strong free cash flow and maintaining our long-term strategy of assertive capital allocation is what makes us successful.

謝謝你。正如您從 Rick 那裡聽到的，KLA 的 9 月季度業績強勁，好於預期，證明了我們一貫的成功執行。儘管某些領域的供應鏈挑戰仍在繼續，並且仍在限制產量，但隨著新的供應商產能上線以滿足我們的要求，我們看到了邊際改善。我們繼續專注於滿足客戶需求，同時擴大市場領導地位、增加收入、保持行業領先的增長和營業利潤率、產生強勁的自由現金流並維持我們自信的資本配置的長期戰略，這使我們取得了成功。

Quarterly revenue was $2.724 billion at the top of the guided range of $2.475 billion to $2.725 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $7.06, above the guided range of $5.70 to $6.80. GAAP diluted EPS was $7.20.

季度收入為 27.24 億美元，位於 24.75 億美元至 27.25 億美元的指導範圍內。非公認會計原則攤薄後每股收益為 7.06 美元，高於 5.70 美元至 6.80 美元的指導範圍。 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 7.20 美元。

Non-GAAP gross margin was 40 basis points, above the midpoint of guidance at 63.4% at Semiconductor Process Control systems, which carry stronger gross margins delivered virtually all the revenue upside from the guidance midpoint. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $526 million, slightly below our expectation of $530 million for the quarter. Non-GAAP operating margin was strong at 44.1%. Quarterly non-GAAP net income topped the $1 billion level for the first time ever. GAAP net income was $1.03 billion. Cash flow from operations was $1.01 billion. And free cash flow was $927 million, resulting in a free cash flow conversion of 92% and a free cash flow margin of 34%. The breakdown of revenue by reportable segments and end markets in major products and regions can be found within the shareholder letter and slides.

非 GAAP 毛利率為 40 個基點，高於半導體過程控制系統 63.4% 的指導中點，該系統的毛利率更高，幾乎實現了指導中點的所有收入增長。非美國通用會計準則運營費用為 5.26 億美元，略低於我們本季度預期的 5.3 億美元。非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率強勁，達到 44.1%。季度非公認會計原則淨收入有史以來首次突破 10 億美元的水平。 GAAP 淨收入為 10.3 億美元。運營現金流為 10.1 億美元。自由現金流為 9.27 億美元，自由現金流轉換率為 92%，自由現金流利潤率為 34%。可在股東信函和幻燈片中找到按報告分部和主要產品和地區的終端市場劃分的收入細目。

Switching to the balance sheet, KLA ended the quarter with almost $3 billion in total cash, debt of $6.3 billion and a flexible and attractive bond maturity profile supported by strong investment-grade ratings from all 3 agencies. Our balance sheet offers a unique capability to fund our growth strategies, both organic and inorganic, and providing ongoing attractive capital returns to shareholders. Over the last 12 months, KLA has returned $5.2 billion to shareholders, including $4.6 billion in share repurchases and $664 million in dividends paid with total capital returns amounting to 166% of free cash flow.

轉向資產負債表，KLA 在本季度末擁有近 30 億美元的總現金、63 億美元的債務以及靈活且有吸引力的債券到期狀況，這得到所有 3 家機構的強大投資級評級的支持。我們的資產負債表提供了一種獨特的能力來為我們的有機和無機增長戰略提供資金，並為股東提供持續的有吸引力的資本回報。在過去 12 個月中，KLA 已向股東返還 52 億美元，其中包括 46 億美元的股票回購和 6.64 億美元的股息，總資本回報率為自由現金流的 166%。

Turning to our outlook. KLA continues to deliver sequential growth and strong relative financial performance. Based on the midpoint of our December quarter guidance, KLA is positioned for mid-20% revenue growth for the total company in calendar '22, with Semiconductor Process Control systems growing several points faster than the company average. Furthermore, this business is expected to significantly outperform the overall WFE industry growth, which is currently projected to be up mid- to high single digits to the low $90 billion range.

轉向我們的前景。 KLA 繼續實現連續增長和強勁的相對財務業績。根據我們 12 月季度指導的中點，KLA 的目標是在 22 年日曆中為整個公司實現 20% 的收入增長，其中半導體過程控制系統的增長速度比公司平均水平快幾個百分點。此外，預計該業務的表現將大大超過整體 WFE 行業的增長，目前預計該行業的增長將達到中高個位數至 900 億美元的低水平。

Looking ahead, we expect industry spending to slow. Though early, we are planning our business based on the expectation of CY '23 WFE declining approximately 20% based on increasing global macroeconomic concerns and recent public statements from several customers, particularly in memory, and the impact of the new U.S. government regulations on native China investment. This WFE estimate reflects our current tops-down assessment of industry demand as follows.

展望未來，我們預計行業支出將放緩。儘管處於早期階段，但我們正在計劃我們的業務，基於對 CY '23 WFE 下降約 20% 的預期，這是由於全球宏觀經濟擔憂日益增加以及一些客戶最近的公開聲明，特別是在內存方面，以及美國政府新法規對本地的影響中國投資。這個 WFE 估計反映了我們當前對行業需求的自上而下的評估，如下所示。

In memory, we expect WFE investment to decline by more than the market as memory customers respond to lower consumer demand by cutting production and factory utilizations to bring device supply in line with demand. We expect foundry/logic to decline less than the overall market.

在內存方面，我們預計 WFE 投資的下降幅度將超過市場，因為內存客戶通過削減產量和工廠利用率來應對較低的消費者需求，以使設備供應與需求保持一致。我們預計代工/邏輯的下降幅度將小於整體市場。

Specific to KLA, we are still assessing the impact of the new China export regulations. Our preliminary assessment for the combined gross direct impact on our revenue based on our existing backlog and sales funnel forecast is in the range of approximately $600 million to $900 million in calendar '23. This reflects systems and service impact with service representing approximately 10% to 15% of the total. This estimate is before any potential system reallocation for products where supply is meaningfully below current demand, which has resulted in significant lead time to other customers. Given our backlog and forecast, we expect that we will be able to reallocate certain tools to other customers as we move through next year.

具體到 KLA，我們仍在評估新的中國出口法規的影響。根據我們現有的積壓和銷售漏斗預測，我們對 23 日曆年對我們收入的綜合直接影響的初步評估在大約 6 億美元至 9 億美元的範圍內。這反映了系統和服務的影響，服務約佔總數的 10% 到 15%。該估計是在對供應明顯低於當前需求的產品進行任何潛在的系統重新分配之前進行的，這導致向其他客戶提供大量交貨時間。鑑於我們的積壓和預測，我們預計明年我們將能夠將某些工具重新分配給其他客戶。

KLA's unique broad portfolio differentiation and primary value proposition is focused on enabling technology transitions, which our customers continue to invest in regardless of business environment. While capacity plans can change, technology road map investment tends to be more resilient. This adds additional confidence in our business expectations as customers align shipment slots with road map requirements. In this environment, we will continue to focus on meeting customer requirements, maintaining a high level of investment in R&D to advance our product road maps and KLA's market leadership and delivering strong relative revenue growth and financial performance.

KLA 獨特的廣泛產品組合差異化和主要價值主張專注於實現技術轉型，無論商業環境如何，我們的客戶都會繼續投資。雖然容量計劃可能會發生變化，但技術路線圖投資往往更具彈性。隨著客戶根據路線圖要求調整裝運時段，這增加了對我們業務預期的信心。在這種環境下，我們將繼續專注於滿足客戶需求，保持對研發的高水平投資，以推進我們的產品路線圖和 KLA 的市場領導地位，並實現強勁的相對收入增長和財務業績。

Our December quarter guidance is as follows. Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $2.8 billion, plus or minus $150 million. The gross direct impact of the new China regulations on the December quarter revenue guidance is approximately $100 million. Foundry/logic is forecasted to be approximately 76%, and memory is expected to be around 24% of Semi PC systems revenue. Within memory, DRAM is expected to be about 55% of the segment mix and NAND 45%. We forecast non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 61.5% to 63.5% due primarily to expected product and segment mix.

我們的 12 月季度指導如下。總收入預計在 28 億美元左右，上下浮動 1.5 億美元。中國新法規對 12 月季度收入指引的直接影響總額約為 1 億美元。代工/邏輯預計約為 76%，內存預計將佔 Semi PC 系統收入的 24% 左右。在內存中，DRAM 預計將佔細分市場組合的 55% 左右，NAND 佔 45%。我們預計非美國通用會計準則毛利率將在 61.5% 至 63.5% 之間，主要是由於預期的產品和細分市場組合。

Looking ahead, KLA will continue to balance investments in technology and infrastructure to support our long-term growth objectives with the expectation of a softening near-term outlook. As a result, operating expenses will grow to approximately $550 million in the December quarter with growth in quarterly operating expenses expected to flatten out as we move through calendar '23.

展望未來，KLA 將繼續平衡對技術和基礎設施的投資，以支持我們的長期增長目標和近期前景疲軟的預期。因此，運營費用將在 12 月季度增長至約 5.5 億美元，隨著我們進入 '23 日曆，季度運營費用的增長預計將趨於平穩。

Other model assumptions for the December quarter include other income and expense net of approximately $66 million and an effective tax rate of approximately 13.5%. Finally, GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $5.94 to $7.34 and non-GAAP diluted EPS in the range of $6.30 to $7.70. EPS guidance is based on a fully diluted share count of approximately 140 million shares.

12 月季度的其他模型假設包括其他收入和支出淨額約為 6600 萬美元，有效稅率約為 13.5%。最後，GAAP 攤薄後每股收益預計在 5.94 美元至 7.34 美元之間，非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益預計在 6.30 美元至 7.70 美元之間。每股收益指引基於約 1.4 億股的完全稀釋後的股票數量。

In conclusion, although the CY '23 outlook for WFE demand has softened, we remain confident that the secular trends driving long-term semiconductor industry demand and investments in WFE are durable and compelling. Broad-based customer demand, the increasing strategic role semiconductors are playing in influencing national industrial policy and simultaneous investments supporting growing semiconductor content across technology nodes remain important trends. These are long-term secular growth drivers for the industry as technology investment and node transitions reflect the value that semiconductors in our industry have in lowering costs for our customers and enabling a broader application universe for semiconductor-based technology across multiple end markets.

總之，儘管 CY '23 對 WFE 需求的前景已經走軟，但我們仍然相信，推動半導體行業長期需求和 WFE 投資的長期趨勢是持久且引人注目的。廣泛的客戶需求、半導體在影響國家產業政策方面發揮的日益重要的戰略作用以及支持跨技術節點不斷增長的半導體含量的同步投資仍然是重要趨勢。這些是該行業的長期長期增長動力，因為技術投資和節點轉換反映了我們行業中的半導體在降低客戶成本方面的價值，並為跨多個終端市場的基於半導體的技術提供更廣泛的應用範圍。

For KLA, considering our strong track record of execution and the power of our portfolio strategy, we have confidence in our ability to continue to deliver sustainable relative outperformance. We will continue to maintain a high level of investment in our product development road maps to enable market share expansion and support customers' technology road maps and multiyear investment plans. This provides an element of stability that shores up our confidence in the demand outlook for the future.

對於 KLA 而言，考慮到我們出色的執行記錄和我們的投資組合戰略的力量，我們對我們繼續提供可持續的相對優異表現的能力充滿信心。我們將繼續對我們的產品開發路線圖保持高水平的投資，以擴大市場份額並支持客戶的技術路線圖和多年投資計劃。這提供了一種穩定因素，增強了我們對未來需求前景的信心。

These factors, combined with the KLA operating model that guides our execution, positions us to continue to deliver strong relative performance as we execute our strategic objectives. These objectives fuel our growth, consistent operational excellence and differentiation across the diverse product and service offering. They are also the foundation of our sustained technology leadership, wide competitive moat, industry-leading financial performance, history of robust free cash flow generation and consistent and growing capital returns to shareholders.

這些因素與指導我們執行的 KLA 運營模式相結合，使我們能夠在執行戰略目標時繼續提供強勁的相對業績。這些目標推動了我們在多樣化產品和服務中的增長、始終如一的卓越運營和差異化。它們也是我們持續的技術領先地位、廣泛的競爭護城河、行業領先的財務業績、強勁的自由現金流產生的歷史以及持續和不斷增長的股東資本回報的基礎。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Kevin to begin the Q&A session. Kevin?

有了這個，我將把電話轉回給凱文開始問答環節。凱文？

Thanks, Bren. Operator, can you please queue for questions?

謝謝，布倫。接線員，可以排隊提問嗎？

(Operator Instructions) We'll now take our first question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們現在將回答來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur 的第一個問題。

Congratulations on the solid quarterly execution and strong free cash flow. As you mentioned, the team has been outperforming WFE and Process Control spending growth for the last few years. No different this year, right? I mean it looks like given your December quarter guidance, your Process Control systems business is going to be up like 30% to 35% when WFE is only up high single digit. I know in the last downturn, like 2019, not as severe, but has potentially 2023 is, but you guys actually grew your Process Control and services revenues when WFE was down back then. So kind of given all of this, like do you think guys just provide some sort of rough framework for thinking about the team's revenue and earnings power potential with industry spending down about 20% next year?

祝賀穩健的季度執行和強勁的自由現金流。正如您所提到的，該團隊在過去幾年中的表現一直優於 WFE 和流程控制支出增長。今年也不一樣吧？我的意思是，根據你 12 月季度的指導，當 WFE 僅增長個位數時，你的過程控制系統業務將增長 30% 到 35%。我知道在上一次經濟衰退中，比如 2019 年，沒有那麼嚴重，但可能會在 2023 年如此嚴重，但是當 WFE 下降時，你們實際上增加了流程控制和服務收入。考慮到這一切，你是否認為人們只是提供某種粗略的框架來思考團隊的收入和盈利潛力，明年行業支出將下降約 20%？

Yes, Harlan. It's Bren. Thank you for the comments, and I'll start here, and Rick can join after. So I think the way to think about KLA performance is typically, historically, most of the volatility we've seen in WFE has been in the memory space. And as you know, Process Control intensity and memory is quite a bit lower than it is in foundry and logic. So I think you have to go back a couple of decades. I think we've outperformed WFE in any down year that WFE has had. So I think that that's always been an anchor for us.

是的，哈蘭。是布倫。感謝您的評論，我將從這裡開始，然後 Rick 可以加入。因此，我認為考慮 KLA 性能的方式通常是，從歷史上看，我們在 WFE 中看到的大部分波動都發生在內存空間中。如您所知，過程控制強度和內存比代工廠和邏輯要低很多。所以我認為你必須回到幾十年前。我認為我們在 WFE 所經歷的任何低迷年份中的表現都優於 WFE。所以我認為這一直是我們的支柱。

We also tend to support customers that are investing in their road maps, right? So as they pull back on their capacity investments, they continue to invest in technology, and so there's a certain amount of business that -- with KLA that continues to happen almost irrespective of their revenue levels. So that tends to be a factor for us as well.

我們也傾向於支持那些投資於他們的路線圖的客戶，對吧？因此，當他們撤回產能投資時，他們會繼續投資於技術，因此有一定數量的業務——無論其收入水平如何，KLA 都會繼續發生。所以這往往也是我們的一個因素。

And then finally, customers usually continue to run the installed base, and so service is -- continues to operate. We have a contract strain that is the majority of the revenue of 75% plus of the revenue. And so while they're pulling back on CapEx investments, they still tend to run the installed bases pretty heavily. And given how they buy Process Control generally in terms of buying what they need and rely on us to maximize uptime for those systems that it tends to also be an anchor as we move through down periods in the CapEx environment.

最後，客戶通常會繼續運行已安裝的基礎，因此服務是 - 繼續運行。我們的合同壓力佔收入的大部分，佔收入的 75% 以上。因此，雖然他們正在撤回資本支出投資，但他們仍然傾向於大量運行已安裝的基礎。考慮到他們通常如何購買流程控制來購買他們需要的東西，並依靠我們來最大化這些系統的正常運行時間，當我們在資本支出環境中度過低谷期時，它往往也是一個錨點。

Great. And then on my follow-up, good to see the strong EUV mask inspection shipments and Patterning segment was up almost 70% year-over-year. I think that's reflective of the strong EUV adoption this year. And despite the weaker WFE backdrop for next year, I think that the EUV lithography outlook continues to be strong, right? I mean continued penetration of EUV into memory and logic and foundry, and so this should bode well or continue to bode well for your mask inspection demand. But I know last year the mask inspection segment underperformed positive control on growth. What's the team's outlook for your mask inspection business this year and next year, given the relatively better fundamental outlook in lithography?

偉大的。然後在我的跟進中，很高興看到強勁的 EUV 掩模檢測出貨量和圖案化部分同比增長近 70%。我認為這反映了今年 EUV 的強勁採用。儘管明年 WFE 的背景較弱，但我認為 EUV 光刻前景繼續強勁，對吧？我的意思是 EUV 繼續滲透到內存、邏輯和代工廠，所以這應該是好兆頭，或者繼續對你的掩模檢查需求是好兆頭。但我知道去年口罩檢測部門在增長方面的積極控製表現不佳。鑑於光刻技術的基本面前景相對較好，團隊對今年和明年的掩模檢測業務前景如何？

So yes, Harlan, you have it right. So this year is actually a very strong year for reticle inspection. I would expect reticle inspection to outperform the overall Semi PC business within the company. So a very strong year and certainly driven by EUV as 90% plus of EUV reticles in production are running through KLA systems.

所以，是的，哈蘭，你說得對。所以今年對於標線檢查來說實際上是非常強勁的一年。我預計分劃板檢測的表現將優於公司內的整體 Semi PC 業務。這是非常強勁的一年，而且肯定受到 EUV 的推動，因為生產中 90% 以上的 EUV 掩模版都通過 KLA 系統運行。

As we look at next year, I think that there will be continued demand there as you see the -- start to see more investment in the 3-nanometer node. So I would expect the [rapid] business to probably continue to perform better than Semi PC. There's also some investment in infrastructure that's happening in some of the legacy mask inspection and new infrastructure that's being built in China to support the legacy reticles, and so there's also an aspect of investment that's happening there as well. So I would expect it to have another good year this year, a strong year in '22, but also a strong year '23 as well.

當我們展望明年時，我認為那裡會有持續的需求，正如你所看到的——開始看到對 3 納米節點的更多投資。因此，我預計 [快速] 業務可能會繼續表現優於 Semi PC。還有一些基礎設施投資正在中國進行一些傳統掩模檢查和正在建設的新基礎設施以支持傳統掩模版，因此那裡也正在發生投資的一個方面。所以我預計今年它會有另一個好年頭，22 年是強勁的一年，但 23 年也是強勁的一年。

Yes. And one other thing, Harlan, I think that -- one of the things that contributed to our strength is share gain due to new capabilities on our products. So part of what we were in development for was continuing extending the 6xx product to be able to serve more of the EUV market. So as we do that, we saw some performance. So overall, the segment is good, and then we had some -- the benefit of some share gain as well.

是的。還有一件事，哈蘭，我認為 - 有助於我們實力的一件事是由於我們產品的新功能而獲得的份額。因此，我們開發的部分目的是繼續擴展 6xx 產品，以便能夠服務於更多的 EUV 市場。因此，當我們這樣做時，我們看到了一些表現。所以總的來說，這個細分市場很好，然後我們也有一些——也有一些份額收益的好處。

We will take our next question from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

我們將向 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar 提出我們的下一個問題。

Rick, just wanted to follow up on the earlier question. I understand you guys typically outperform Process Control like a normal cyclical downturn. But if you overlay the fact that some of your peers had supply issues, which you of course did not, and Process Control tends to be more early cyclical. If you overlay those 2 components do you still expect your Process Control revenue to outperform WFE next year? And then I have a follow-up.

瑞克，只是想跟進前面的問題。我知道你們通常會像正常的周期性衰退一樣勝過過程控制。但是，如果您掩蓋了您的一些同行存在供應問題的事實，而您當然沒有，那麼流程控制往往會更早地出現週期性。如果您疊加這兩個組件，您是否仍然期望您的流程控制收入明年會超過 WFE？然後我有一個跟進。

We do for 2 reasons. One it is true that some of them had more challenges than we did, but we had our own. We could have shipped -- we built backlog, we could have shipped more if we had more capacity. But the other thing is the decline in WFE is going to be based more in memory than in foundry and logic. So that alone helps us in terms of the mix. So I think we're in pretty good position to outperform WFE. Nobody really knows, of course, what '23 is going to look like. But with that set-up, we're in pretty good shape.

我們這樣做有兩個原因。確實，他們中的一些人比我們面臨更多的挑戰，但我們也有自己的挑戰。我們本可以發貨——我們建立了積壓，如果我們有更多的容量，我們可以發貨更多。但另一件事是，WFE 的下降將更多地基於內存，而不是晶圓代工和邏輯。因此，僅此一項就可以幫助我們進行組合。因此，我認為我們處於優於 WFE 的非常好的位置。當然，沒有人真正知道 23 年會是什麼樣子。但是有了這樣的設置，我們的狀態就很好了。

Got it. Got it. Very helpful, Rick. And then just a follow-up on services. What percentage of your services is from China or domestic China? And also if WFE is down 20%, what do you think happens to service business next year?

知道了。知道了。非常有幫助，瑞克。然後只是對服務的跟進。你們的服務有多少來自中國或中國國內？此外，如果 WFE 下降 20%，您認為明年服務業務會發生什麼變化？

Yes. I don't think we've broken that out. I would say it's less than -- if our systems business in China and Semi PC is somewhere between 20% and 25%, I would expect the service stream is less because it's less developed, right? It's newer in terms of the investment that's happened, and so it would be lower than as a mix of service revenue than that is a mix of system revenue.

是的。我不認為我們已經打破了這一點。我會說它低於——如果我們在中國和 Semi PC 的系統業務在 20% 到 25% 之間，我會預計服務流會更少，因為它不那麼發達，對吧？就所發生的投資而言，它是較新的，因此它會低於服務收入的組合，而不是系統收入的組合。

I would expect service to continue to grow next year. I think it will be below the -- in that WFE environment, it'd be below what our long-term growth rate target of 12% to 14%. I think it will probably be somewhere in single digits. There is a little bit of an FX headwind that happens to service as you have the strong dollar but you have a lot of service revenues denominated in local currencies. You gave a little bit of a natural hedge because you also have cost denominated as well. But there is a little bit of a headwind that's coming on service revenue growth from FX. But I think we'll probably be somewhere in kind of mid-to high single-digit service growth given expectations of WFE that are down 20%.

我預計明年服務將繼續增長。我認為它會低於 - 在那個 WFE 環境中，它會低於我們 12% 到 14% 的長期增長率目標。我認為它可能會是個位數。由於美元走強，但您有大量以當地貨幣計價的服務收入，因此服務會遇到一點外匯逆風。你提供了一點自然對沖，因為你也有成本計價。但是，來自外彙的服務收入增長帶來了一點阻力。但我認為，鑑於對 WFE 的預期下降 20%，我們可能會達到中高個位數的服務增長。

Krish, when we set the ['26 plan] at our Investor Day, we didn't know when, but we anticipated there'd be this digestion period of WFE just based on the historic growth, so we're still modeling the targets that we set out for ['26]. And we didn't know when, but it seems like it's coming in '23, and we weren't sure if it was '23 or '24, but it was going to be in that period. But overall, we feel pretty good about where we are positioned relative to that longer-term trend line. And as Bren said, we'll go under it, but then we've got a lot of systems that are shipping now, for example, that will come off warranty. And so they'll be going into services as we move forward, and feel pretty good about where we are relative to the long-term services plan.

Krish，當我們在投資者日制定 ['26 計劃] 時，我們不知道是什麼時候，但我們預計 WFE 的消化期只是基於歷史增長，所以我們仍在為目標建模我們為 ['26] 出發的。我們不知道什麼時候，但它似乎是在 23 年，我們不確定是 23 年還是 24 年，但它會在那個時期。但總的來說，我們對相對於長期趨勢線的定位感到非常滿意。正如布倫所說，我們會繼續下去，但是我們現在有很多系統正在發貨，例如，它們將脫離保修期。因此，隨著我們的前進，他們將進入服務領域，並且對我們相對於長期服務計劃的位置感覺非常好。

We will take our next question from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們將向 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse 提出我們的下一個問題。

I guess first question, I was hoping you could speak to changes in backlog over the last 3 months, how you're kind of incorporating the changes around domestic China embargo. And when are you expecting to get back to kind of your normalized lead times of 6 to 7 months?

我想第一個問題，我希望你能談談過去 3 個月積壓的變化，你是如何融入中國國內禁運的變化的。你預計什麼時候能恢復到正常的 6 到 7 個月的交貨時間？

C.J., it's a good question. And we'll have the specific numbers in the 10-Q, which we'll likely file on -- probably by the end of this week. But we did grow backlog a little bit. So remaining performance obligations will be somewhere in the mid-13 range. So some modest growth of 13.1 as a reference point in the June quarter. We did scrub a little bit of the backlog given the new China regulations. I think there's more work to be done there as we move into the December quarter. It's still fairly fluid, and we're working through our own assessment of the new regulations and engaging with the government about how to think about certain situations there. So I would expect to see a little bit come out. Certainly, we grew it a little bit this quarter, and I expect a little bit more effort or a little bit more there as we move into the December quarter.

C.J.，這是個好問題。我們將在 10-Q 中獲得具體數字，我們可能會在本週末之前提交這些數字。但是我們確實增加了一點積壓。因此，剩餘的履約義務將在 13 的中間範圍內。因此，作為 6 月季度的參考點，13.1 的適度增長。鑑於新的中國法規，我們確實清理了一些積壓的訂單。我認為隨著我們進入 12 月季度，還有更多工作要做。它仍然相當不穩定，我們正在對新法規進行自己的評估，並與政府就如何考慮那裡的某些情況進行接觸。所以我希望看到一點點出來。當然，我們本季度有所增長，我預計隨著我們進入 12 月季度，我們會付出更多努力或更多。

So I think from a lead time point of view, it's been a very across certain products. And we have certain products that are high-end sort of technology-enabling products like broadband plasma inspection, our retical inspection tools, our Voyager laser scanning system, SP7 Surfscan products. Those lead times remain very extended. I think it will take some time because we're dependent on incremental capacity to come online to be able to work through some of that backlog. And I would expect those customers to stay in the queue given the long-term sort of demand dynamics around that -- those particular products.

因此，我認為從交貨時間的角度來看，某些產品的時間跨度很大。我們的某些產品屬於高端技術支持產品，例如寬帶等離子檢測、網狀檢測工具、Voyager 激光掃描系統、SP7 Surfscan 產品。這些交貨時間仍然很長。我認為這將需要一些時間，因為我們依賴於增加的容量來在線處理一些積壓的工作。鑑於圍繞這些特定產品的長期需求動態，我希望這些客戶留在隊列中。

But as it relates to some of our more capacity-centric products, I would expect some normalization as we move into '23. I think certainly, we're still constrained today in a lot of areas, and I would expect that we'll see that continue for a little while. But I think as we move through '23, we'll get up with a little bit more flexibility and more normalization on certain more capacity-centric product.

但由於它與我們一些更以容量為中心的產品有關，我預計隨著我們進入 23 世紀會出現一些正常化。我認為當然，我們今天在很多領域仍然受到限制，我希望我們會看到這種情況持續一段時間。但我認為，隨著我們進入 23 年，我們將在某些更以容量為中心的產品上獲得更多的靈活性和更多的規範化。

Very, very helpful. As a quick follow-up, I think you talked about $100 million of gross risk related to the China impact for December. And, I guess -- what does the net number look like there? I mean should we just be pulling out kind of $10 million to $15 million from service to reflect that and that you're perhaps repurposing the remaining tools so the net effect is much less? Or how should we think about that?

非常非常有幫助。作為快速跟進，我認為您談到了與 12 月中國影響相關的 1 億美元總風險。而且，我猜 - 那裡的淨數字是什麼樣的？我的意思是我們是否應該從服務中提取 1000 萬到 1500 萬美元來反映這一點，並且您可能正在重新利用剩餘的工具，因此淨效應要小得多？或者我們應該怎麼想？

Yes, I think, the easiest way to think about it approximately -- without the new regulations, our guidance would have been approximately $100 million higher, right? I think the mix that I talked about earlier in terms of service versus system is about the same in this quarter versus the longer term. And the ability to reallocate those systems in the short run a little bit harder. So I think that as we move into next year, we'll -- I think we'll be able to reallocate more, including some of what we expected here. But, I think, in the shorter run, much harder for us to do. So I think the easiest way to think about it is the way I described it.

是的，我認為，最簡單的考慮方法是——如果沒有新規定，我們的指導會高出大約 1 億美元，對吧？我認為我之前談到的服務與系統的組合在本季度與長期來看大致相同。並且在短期內重新分配這些系統的能力有點困難。所以我認為，隨著我們進入明年，我們將 - 我認為我們將能夠重新分配更多，包括我們在這裡預期的一些內容。但是，我認為，在短期內，我們更難做到。所以我認為最簡單的思考方式就是我描述它的方式。

We'll take our next question from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們將向美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya 提出下一個問題。

Just one more on China. Can you help us put this $600 million to $900 million in context with what you're currently doing. In the last 12 months, China sales were about $2.8 billion. Obviously, it's both domestic and multi. So is this $600 million to 900 million derisk enough? And how much is left and what is left once the $600 million to $900 million goes out of your addressable opportunity next year?

再談一談中國。你能幫我們把這 6 億到 9 億美元與你目前正在做的事情聯繫起來嗎？過去 12 個月，中國的銷售額約為 28 億美元。顯然，它既是國內的，也是多的。那麼，這 6 億到 9 億美元是否足夠？一旦 6 億到 9 億美元在明年失去您的可尋址機會，還剩下多少？

Yes. It's -- I think it's derisked. We try to provide a range to give you some perspective. Certainly, there's some forecast but it's part of that. But as we looked at what we have in backlog and we looked at what we expect to book over the course of '23 for the affected customers, we were able to go tool by tool to come up with the range that I provided. And service is roughly 10% to 15% of that.

是的。它是——我認為它被貶低了。我們試圖提供一個範圍給你一些觀點。當然，有一些預測，但這是其中的一部分。但是，當我們查看我們積壓的內容以及我們希望在 23 年期間為受影響的客戶預訂的內容時，我們能夠逐個工具地得出我提供的範圍。服務大約是其中的 10% 到 15%。

We will see as we move forward. Again, we're at a very preliminary stage in terms of working through the regulations and also engaging with customers. There's the possibility that we're able to get some of that back as we move forward, but we'll have to see how that plays out.

我們將在前進的過程中看到。同樣，我們在通過法規和與客戶互動方面處於非常初步的階段。隨著我們前進，我們有可能收回其中的一部分，但我們必須看看結果如何。

As I said in the prepared remarks, it is tied to the legacy parts of our business, which are really unaffected by the new regulations. Most of what was considered 14-nanometer and below was already derisked from our plans because we were dealing with similar guidance back in the June quarter. And so what -- the biggest part of the change was the restrictions on the memory business. And so, I think, we feel pretty good about the range given where we are, the range we provided.

正如我在準備好的評論中所說，它與我們業務的遺留部分相關，這些部分實際上不受新法規的影響。大多數被認為是 14 納米及以下的材料已經從我們的計劃中刪除，因為我們在 6 月季度處理了類似的指導。那麼——變化的最大部分是對內存業務的限制。因此，我認為，我們對我們所處的範圍以及我們提供的範圍感覺非常好。

And just as a follow-up, I had a longer-term more conceptual question. I know we are far away from '24. But as people look forward and especially this topic of WFE intensity, in the last 2 years, it grows about 15% to 16%. But before that, the industry used to be around the 13%, 14% level. Do you think as the industry recovers, we kind of stay at the 13%, 14%? Or do you think there's a case to be made that WFE intensity can start to recover back to the levels that we have seen in the last 2 years?

作為後續行動，我有一個更長期的概念性問題。我知道我們離 24 年還很遠。但隨著人們期待，尤其是 WFE 強度這個話題，在過去 2 年中，它增長了大約 15% 到 16%。但在此之前，行業曾經在13%、14%左右的水平。你認為隨著行業的複蘇，我們會保持在 13%、14% 的水平嗎？還是您認為有理由證明 WFE 強度可以開始恢復到我們在過去 2 年看到的水平？

Yes. I mean when we look at the longer term -- and it's a great question. And actually, that's the one that I think is the one that we've been spending a lot of time thinking about. The intensity is related to a couple of factors, obviously, but one of them is the challenge with the advanced technology nodes associated with it. And I think part of why it went back up was that scaling resumed, and scaling has resumed both in what we've seen in logic/foundry but also in memory.

是的。我的意思是當我們從長遠來看時——這是一個很好的問題。實際上，這就是我認為我們已經花費大量時間思考的問題。顯然，強度與幾個因素有關，但其中之一是與之相關的先進技術節點的挑戰。而且我認為它回升的部分原因是縮放恢復了，並且縮放在我們在邏輯/代工廠和內存中看到的都恢復了。

So I do think it is going to trend slightly higher than it was, that it will be in '19 -- or '23, but it will go back up. Whether it goes all the way back up, it's not exactly clear, but I do think there's going to be pressure on that for people, everybody that's trying to move forward in technology. And the one thing that we know will happen during '23 even if there's a slowdown in capacity, there won't be a slowdown in technology advancement because everybody knows the way you get out of the downturn is by having newer products.

所以我確實認為它的趨勢會比以前略高，它將在 19 年或 23 年，但它會回升。是否會一路回升，目前還不是很清楚，但我確實認為這對人們來說會有壓力，每個人都在努力推動技術進步。我們知道的一件事將在 23 年發生，即使產能放緩，技術進步也不會放緩，因為每個人都知道擺脫低迷的方法是擁有更新的產品。

So I think it does trend back up. Whether it goes back all the way, we'll wait and see. But I think there's some improvement in capital intensity, and then we're on the strong belief that Process Control intensity will hold on to some of the gains that we've made and potentially build on them as we bring new products in.

所以我認為它確實有回升的趨勢。能否一路回溯，我們拭目以待。但我認為資本密集度有所改善，然後我們堅信流程控制密集度將保持我們已經取得的一些收益，並在我們引入新產品時可能會在這些收益的基礎上進一步發展。

Yes. Fundamental to our thesis was that we would see semiconductor revenue grow, and WFE would grow slightly faster. So you'd have a flat to up trend line in WFE intensity that would be faster than semiconductor revenue, predicated on the things that Rick talked about, but also that a lot of the dynamics in the industry that drove significant efficiency in WFE have been worked out of the system. And what I mean by that is things like wafer transitions or normal wafer transitions, the consolidation that we saw in the industry and so on because some of the bigger factors.

是的。我們論文的基礎是我們會看到半導體收入增長，而 WFE 的增長會稍微快一些。因此，根據 Rick 談到的事情，WFE 強度從平坦到上升的趨勢線將比半導體收入更快，而且行業中許多推動 WFE 顯著效率的動態已經從系統中解決。我的意思是晶圓過渡或正常晶圓過渡，我們在行業中看到的整合等等，因為一些更大的因素。

So our view is that there will be a lot of pressure for customers to try to keep it from growing, but that we were growing faster than it is. But most of what is talked about [different] customers is to keep it from growing faster, not to keep it from -- to drive it down. And so I think that there's -- we think the long-term assumption that's there is, I think, a fairly straight down the middle assumption in terms of how we think about long-term.

所以我們的觀點是，客戶會面臨很大的壓力來阻止它的增長，但我們的增長速度比現在快。但是，大多數關於 [不同] 客戶的討論是阻止它更快地增長，而不是阻止它——降低它。所以我認為有 - 我們認為存在的長期假設，我認為，就我們如何看待長期而言，這是一個相當直截了當的中間假設。

Yes. And there's one additional fact. When you look at the regionalization efforts and you think about new fabs around the world, they will tend to be slightly less efficient, which will drive up the efficiency, and those numbers are not really in anything in calendar '23.

是的。還有一個額外的事實。當您查看區域化工作並考慮世界各地的新晶圓廠時，它們的效率往往會稍低，這將提高效率，而這些數字在 23 年日曆中並沒有真正體現出來。

We will take our next question from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們將向摩根士丹利的喬摩爾提出下一個問題。

Great. I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the export restrictions. You guys have talked about seeing the logic restrictions coming, I think, before, and I heard from anyone else. Where were you surprised on the logic side?

偉大的。我想知道你能否談談出口限制。我想，你們之前已經談到過看到邏輯限制的到來，我從其他人那裡聽說過。你在邏輯方面感到驚訝的地方在哪裡？

And then as a bigger picture question. The fact that this could affect the multinationals, but the multinationals immediately have a license for a year, do you think that gives any kind of pause to investing in Chinese fabs for the multinationals, who could find themselves with large assets that they're unable to upgrade if there's a change in policy? Just can you kind of assess how your customers are talking about all of this?

然後作為一個更大的問題。這可能會影響跨國公司，但跨國公司立即獲得一年的許可證，你是否認為這會讓跨國公司暫停投資中國晶圓廠，因為他們可能會發現自己擁有大量資產，他們無法做到如果政策有變化，要升級嗎？你能評估一下你的客戶是如何談論這一切的嗎？

Yes, Joe, this is not an area where we're going to provide much insight. I think from the standpoint, I think what you meant is that we see the memory restrictions coming, right, because we talked about the logic ones. We were not surprised by the export controls that were implemented. And as we've mentioned, we've been working with the government officials as they've implemented those. So we're not surprised by that.

是的，喬，這不是我們要提供很多見解的領域。我認為從角度來看，我認為您的意思是我們看到內存限制即將到來，對，因為我們談到了邏輯限制。我們對實施的出口管制並不感到驚訝。正如我們所提到的，我們一直在與政府官員合作，因為他們已經實施了這些措施。所以我們對此並不感到驚訝。

When I talk to customers about their plans in China, I think, a lot of what they're doing is trying to figure out what are the implications of those extensions and what's the long-term viability. So I would say that it's a much better question to ask them than us. And ultimately, from our standpoint, frankly, it doesn't matter that much because if they choose not to invest there, what they're doing is investing to support demand and they'll move that investment to where they could do it. So that's kind of the way they're talking about it and what we're seeing. So I think from our standpoint, a lot of the -- now that this has happened, we're in a much better position to not speculate but support as we move forward.

當我與客戶談論他們在中國的計劃時，我認為，他們所做的很多事情都是試圖弄清楚這些擴展的含義是什麼，以及長期的可行性是什麼。所以我想說，問他們比問我們要好得多。最終，坦率地說，從我們的角度來看，這並不重要，因為如果他們選擇不在那裡投資，他們所做的就是投資以支持需求，他們會將投資轉移到他們可以做的地方。所以這就是他們談論它以及我們所看到的方式。所以我認為，從我們的角度來看，很多 - 現在已經發生了，我們處於一個更好的位置，而不是推測而是支持我們前進。

We will take our next question from Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

我們將向富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi 提出下一個問題。

Last quarter, you had talked about productivity, your manufacturing staying relatively similar rates in the second half into the first half of next year. Is that still how you're thinking about? And maybe in that context, how do you think about that relative to gross margin?

上個季度，你談到了生產力，你的製造業在下半年到明年上半年保持相對相似的速度。你還是這麼想的嗎？也許在這種情況下，您如何看待與毛利率相關的問題？

Yes. Look, we -- as you see in the guidance, right, we have another step-up in output expectations out of the factories and are still driving to deliver into the first part of the year. I mean, certainly, there's been some customer churn that we've seen. Most of -- sort of adjustments to our outlook are more from a top-down perspective in terms of engagement with certain customers and also public information. I think we'll have to see how it plays through. But right now, we are driving the factories to continue to deliver against what our customers have asked us for.

是的。看，我們 - 正如您在指南中看到的那樣，對，我們對工廠的產出預期再次提高，並且仍在推動今年上半年的交付。我的意思是，當然，我們已經看到了一些客戶流失。在與某些客戶的接觸以及公共信息方面，我們對前景的大部分調整更多是從自上而下的角度進行的。我想我們必須看看它是如何發揮作用的。但現在，我們正在推動工廠繼續按照客戶的要求交付產品。

So I think we'll have to see how it plays out, but we start to see some rescheduling as we move into '23. I think those are still questions out there, given just the dynamics we're seeing on the macro front and what we're hearing from customers. But for now, I think our view on the first part is somewhat consistent with what I've said in the past. But I'll have more to say about half to half in the March guidance when we get there.

所以我認為我們必須看看它是如何發揮作用的，但是隨著我們進入 23 年，我們開始看到一些重新安排。考慮到我們在宏觀方面看到的動態以及我們從客戶那裡聽到的情況，我認為這些仍然是問題所在。但就目前而言，我認為我們對第一部分的看法與我過去所說的有些一致。但是當我們到達那裡時，我將在三月份的指導中說一半到一半。

That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up. Maybe going back to the Investor Day. Now with the new China export restrictions in limiting some of the emerging China customers, how do you think about that maybe changing the long-term growth CAGR that you outlined at the Analyst Day in terms of WFE, your capital intensity? Does it change given those guys are maybe trying to ramp up on the technology front and so spending a little bit more than say some of the more mature customers?

這很有幫助。然後只是作為後續行動。也許回到投資者日。現在，隨著新的中國出口限制限制了一些新興的中國客戶，您如何看待這可能會改變您在分析師日概述的 WFE 長期增長複合年增長率，您的資本密集度？考慮到這些人可能正試圖在技術方面有所提升，因此會比一些更成熟的客戶多花一點錢，這會改變嗎？

Well, it really goes back to the -- it's a good question, and we had contemplated rationalization of WFE in support of the overall industry. So that's really how I think about that is that, ultimately, there -- most of our customers end up having pretty strict investment forecast based on their belief of the capital intensity that they can afford, and you aggregate that up to the industry. And it kind of goes back to, well, what are your assumptions about semiconductor industry growth? What are your assumptions about capital intensity and what are your assumptions about Process Control.

好吧，這真的可以追溯到 - 這是一個很好的問題，我們曾考慮過對 WFE 進行合理化以支持整個行業。所以我真的是這麼想的，最終，我們的大多數客戶最終都會根據他們對他們能夠承受的資本密集度的信念進行非常嚴格的投資預測，然後將其匯總到整個行業。這可以追溯到，嗯，你對半導體行業增長的假設是什麼？您對資本密集度的假設是什麼，您對過程控制的假設是什麼。

Those are all in the band of what we considered when we looked at the investment that was going to happen there. So yes, it may be that there was some investment without the revenue to support it. But eventually, it was going to get rationalized. And then we go back to believe in the semiconductor industry growth. You believe in, overall, the question we answered earlier on capital intensity.

當我們查看將在那裡發生的投資時，這些都在我們考慮的範圍內。所以是的，可能有一些投資沒有收入來支持它。但最終，它會變得合理化。然後我們回過頭來相信半導體行業的增長。總的來說，您相信我們之前回答的關於資本密集度的問題。

So it's pretty much baked in the numbers. The reason we set it out for '26 instead of sooner was, as I mentioned before, we felt like there was going to be some kind of digestion period, which we're now facing into, so you kind of get there.

所以它在數字上幾乎是成熟的。正如我之前提到的，我們將其設置為 26 年而不是更早的原因是，我們覺得會有某種消化期，我們現在正面臨著，所以你有點到了那裡。

As I mentioned, there will be some investment that when you look at some of this regionalization that hasn't happened yet that would have been upside to that plan, and now I think you end up it kind of all blends together. So if you believe the semiconductor growth, I don't think capital intensity goes down, and we feel pretty good about Process Control and our share, that's supportive of the numbers that we laid out. In addition, Bren already talked about the services, which is another big part of it. So a very long way to say we feel like we're still on target for our '26 plan.

正如我所提到的，當你看到一些尚未發生的區域化時，將會有一些投資，這對那個計劃來說是有利的，現在我認為你最終會把它融合在一起。因此，如果您相信半導體的增長，我認為資本密集度不會下降，我們對過程控制和我們的份額感覺很好，這支持了我們列出的數字。此外，布倫已經談到了服務，這是其中的另一大部分。所以說我們覺得我們仍然在我們的 '26 計劃中實現目標還有很長的路要走。

Yes. You left out the EPC part, too. I think that's one where certainly we're feeling pressure this year and would expect to see more volatility in that part of the business given its proximity to consumers. But we still have an expectation that through SAM growth there that we will see similar growth rates there as well. So we talked about '21 to '26 overall. Rick said we modeled some of the -- some softness in between, but we still feel good about the underlying assumptions of what we laid out.

是的。您也省略了 EPC 部分。我認為這是我們今年肯定會感到壓力的地方，並且由於它靠近消費者，預計這部分業務會出現更大的波動。但我們仍然期望通過那裡的 SAM 增長，我們也會看到類似的增長率。所以我們總體上談到了'21到'26。 Rick 說我們模擬了一些——介於兩者之間的一些軟性，但我們仍然對我們所製定的基本假設感到滿意。

We will take our next question from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我們將在德意志銀行接受 Sidney Ho 的下一個問題。

So I have 2 questions. The first one is the near term. If I look at your December quarter guidance, can you help us with the growth difference between SPC and EPC? And I know this EDC was down quite a bit quarter-over-quarter, maybe just seasonality in Q1.

所以我有2個問題。第一個是近期。如果我查看您的 12 月季度指導，您能否幫助我們解決 SPC 和 EPC 之間的增長差異？而且我知道這個 EDC 環比下降了很多，可能只是第一季度的季節性。

And then related to that, if you can unpack the guidance for gross margin a little bit, it's down about 100 basis points at the midpoint, can you talk about the pluses and minuses and specifically related to revenue impact of the China regulation? Does that have a gross impact on gross margin? And I have a follow-up.

然後與此相關，如果你能稍微解開毛利率的指導，它在中點下降了大約 100 個基點，你能談談利弊，特別是與中國監管對收入的影響有關嗎？這對毛利率有重大影響嗎？我有一個後續行動。

Oh, good question. So in terms of guidance for December, all the incremental revenue is coming just about all that's likely to come from our Semi Process Control business. I would think there'd be some impact from the new China regulations on service and the ability to grow service quarter-to-quarter. EPC was down. I think it will be up modestly quarter-to-quarter, but the bulk of the revenue increase will come from Semi PC.

哦，好問題。因此，就 12 月的指導而言，所有增量收入幾乎都來自我們的半過程控制業務。我認為新的中國法規對服務和按季度增長服務的能力會產生一些影響。 EPC 下降。我認為它會按季度適度增長，但大部分收入增長將來自 Semi PC。

So I think in terms of gross margin in the September quarter, it was most of the upside, and I think we did better overall in Semi PC than we expected, and EPC was a little bit weaker on the margin than we thought going into the quarter. So we had a very strong mix of business. We had a significant sequential growth in patterning. Patterning includes reticle inspection, which tends to be a richer product line from a gross margin point of view.

所以我認為就 9 月季度的毛利率而言，這是大部分的上漲空間，我認為我們在 Semi PC 的整體表現比我們預期的要好，而 EPC 在利潤率上比我們認為的要弱一些。四分之一。所以我們有一個非常強大的業務組合。我們在圖案化方面有顯著的連續增長。圖案化包括標線檢測，從毛利率的角度來看，它往往是更豐富的產品線。

So that was the biggest impact that drove the upside. I think as we look at December, again, it will come back to mix dynamics in terms of how we model the business. We're kind of operating in line with the long-term range that I've talked about is somewhere between 63%, plus or minus 50 basis points or so, and we've been operating fairly consistent with that if you look at the broader picture of calendar '22. So we'll see how it plays out.

所以這是推動上漲的最大影響。我認為，當我們再次回顧 12 月時，它將在我們如何為業務建模方面重新混合動力。我們的操作符合我所說的長期範圍，介於 63% 左右，正負 50 個基點左右，如果您查看'22 日曆的更廣泛的畫面。所以我們將看看它是如何發揮作用的。

We've certainly been driving the business at a higher level in terms of output expectations. If you just go back to June, what was the consensus expectation for WFE both this year but also into '23? So that's certainly been a factor in terms of how we've been sizing our business in terms of our ability to support and to ship. And as we move into '23 and we see some of that, it could create a little bit of inventory exposure from an excess inventory point of view. So it could have some incremental reserve exposure there as well that we contemplated as we thought about December. So those are the puts and takes. I think the China regs in terms of impact on gross margin, it's more of a revenue impact. I don't think there's anything incremental from a gross margin point of view one way or the other.

就產出預期而言，我們當然一直在將業務推向更高的水平。如果你回到 6 月，今年以及 23 年對 WFE 的普遍預期是什麼？因此，就我們如何根據我們的支持和運輸能力來衡量我們的業務規模而言，這肯定是一個因素。隨著我們進入'23，我們看到其中的一些，從過剩庫存的角度來看，它可能會產生一些庫存風險。因此，我們在考慮 12 月時也曾考慮過它可能會在那裡增加一些儲備敞口。所以這些是投入和投入。我認為中國監管對毛利率的影響，更多的是對收入的影響。從毛利率的角度來看，我不認為有任何增量。

That's helpful. Great. My follow-up question is back to a cycle question here. In prior down cycles, KLA usually outperformed initially because customers want improved yields, maybe continue to invest in R&D. But essentially, the downturn -- eventually, the downturn would catch up after several quarters, maybe just memory gets CapEx at first and then time foundry/logic comes later. Remind us of why you think this time could be different. And what kind of visibility into 2023 do you have right now just based on cancellation and rescheduling, those kind of things?

這很有幫助。偉大的。我的後續問題又回到了這裡的循環問題。在之前的下行週期中，KLA 最初通常表現出色，因為客戶希望提高產量，可能會繼續投資於研發。但從本質上講，經濟低迷——最終，經濟低迷會在幾個季度後趕上，也許只是內存首先獲得資本支出，然後時間鑄造/邏輯隨後出現。提醒我們為什麼您認為這次可能會有所不同。僅僅基於取消和重新安排這些事情，你現在對 2023 年有什麼樣的了解？

So we haven't had any cancellations. And there has -- the rescheduling that there's been, I'll call it, churn in our backlog management, but backlog grew quarter-to-quarter. I would expect that we'll see more cancellations as we move into '23. But what we said in terms of guidance of the industry down approximately 20% or so and given our expectations around the mix of business and so on and the history that we would expect KLA to perform well in that environment from a share of WFE point of view.

所以我們沒有任何取消。並且有 - 我稱之為重新安排，我們的積壓管理流失，但積壓按季度增長。我希望隨著我們進入 23 世紀，我們會看到更多的取消。但是，鑑於我們對業務組合等方面的預期，以及從 WFE 的份額來看，我們預計 KLA 在該環境中表現良好的歷史，我們所說的行業指導下降了大約 20% 左右看法。

So I think to your other point, look, it depends on how long these soft periods last in terms of how customers ultimately adjust and then what are the demand drivers as they come out of it. But as I said before, we're much more levered to our customers' technology road maps than the increment of capacity. We're certainly doing much better in capacity investment than we used to do, particularly around some of the issues we talked about at Investor Day due to higher design starts and less reuse and so on.

所以我認為你的另一點，看，這取決於客戶最終如何調整這些疲軟時期持續多長時間，以及他們從中擺脫出來的需求驅動因素是什麼。但正如我之前所說，我們更多地利用了客戶的技術路線圖，而不是產能的增加。我們在容量投資方面肯定比過去做得更好，尤其是在我們在投資者日討論的一些問題上，因為更高的設計開始和更少的重用等等。

So those are all factors for us that are positive from a capacity point of view. But at the end of the day, the biggest part of KLA's business is exposed to development and ramping up production. So as long as technology road maps hold together, we feel pretty good about how we're positioned.

因此，從能力的角度來看，這些都是對我們有利的因素。但歸根結底，KLA 業務的最大部分是開發和提高產量。因此，只要技術路線圖保持一致，我們就會對自己的定位感到非常滿意。

Yes. And let me add to that. I mean, at Investor Day, we talked more about our exposure, as Bren said, and the ability we have to scale when there's capacity. I think the other thing that's changed, particularly with EUV is we're actually more an enabling technology now. And before, we might have been more about yield management. And now with some of our products, particularly in BBP and in rapid, those are the tools that our customers have repeatedly said, "No matter what happens in this downturn, keep us on your list. We want those tools." So I think that we've broadened from being primarily a company associated with ramping yields to one of enabling technology, particularly around EUV and then in capacity.

是的。讓我補充一下。我的意思是，正如布倫所說，在投資者日，我們更多地談論了我們的風險敞口，以及我們在有能力時必須擴大規模的能力。我認為另一件事發生了變化，特別是對於 EUV，我們現在實際上更像是一種使能技術。而在此之前，我們可能更多地關注收益管理。現在有了我們的一些產品，特別是 BBP 和快速產品，這些是我們的客戶反复說的工具，“無論在這次經濟低迷時期發生什麼，請把我們留在你的名單上。我們想要這些工具。”因此，我認為我們已經從主要與提高產量相關的公司擴展到支持技術之一，特別是在 EUV 方面，然後是產能。

So I think we have better exposure, which is why we feel pretty good about how our products are holding up and the fact that we are getting very clear signals from customers that are saying, "We understand we're slowing overall, but please do not take us out of the list. We need those tools, and we need them as soon as we can get them."

所以我認為我們有更好的曝光率，這就是為什麼我們對我們的產品的表現感覺很好，而且我們從客戶那裡得到非常明確的信號，他們說：“我們知道我們總體上正在放緩，但請“不要把我們排除在名單之外。我們需要這些工具，而且一旦我們得到它們，我們就需要它們。”

We will take our next question from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們將回答瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡（Timothy Arcuri）的下一個問題。

Bren, I also had a question on Process Control systems. And I ask because 2023 is going to be kind of a weird year because there's about $4 billion to $5 billion worth of deferred WFE just from 2 of your peers that should have been WFE this year but really is going to become WFE next year, and that sort of optically creates maybe like a little bit of a headwind for your WFE share. So I'm wondering if you can sort of help sift through that and maybe size what your PC systems would be for calendar '23. It seems like $6 billion is a pretty reasonable bogey, but I'm wondering if you like that number or not.

Bren，我還有一個關於過程控制系統的問題。我之所以問，是因為 2023 年將是一個奇怪的一年，因為有大約 40 億到 50 億美元的遞延 WFE 僅來自您的 2 個同行，今年應該是 WFE，但明年真的會變成 WFE，並且這種視覺上的影響可能會給您的 WFE 份額帶來一點阻力。所以我想知道你是否可以幫助篩選一下，也許可以確定你的 PC 系統對於日曆 '23 的大小。看起來 60 億美元是一個相當合理的忌諱，但我想知道你是否喜歡這個數字。

Tim, I don't want to guide '23. We're a little bit early on that. I think you're right that there is some of the deferred revenue dynamic that will maybe skew the numbers a bit. But I think also given the things that we just said about how we're positioned into '23 from a backlog point of view and from a technology point of view that we feel pretty comfortable with our share of WFE continuing.

蒂姆，我不想指導'23。我們在這方面有點早。我認為你是對的，有一些遞延收入動態可能會稍微扭曲數字。但我認為，考慮到我們剛才所說的，從積壓的角度和技術的角度來看，我們如何定位到 23 年，我們對 WFE 的份額繼續保持感到非常滿意。

But also, I think, we feel very good about the actual market share within Process Control and the -- we think, some tailwinds there as well. So, I think, against the backdrop that you're talking about. If you're thinking WFE is somewhere in the $75 billion-ish range or so, the kinds of numbers are reasonable that you're mentioning. But I'll have the ability, I think, to provide a little bit more clarity around how we see that as we move into guidance for '23 in January.

而且，我認為，我們對過程控制中的實際市場份額感覺非常好，而且我們認為那裡也有一些順風。所以，我認為，在你所說的背景下。如果您認為 WFE 大約在 750 億美元左右，那麼您提到的這些數字是合理的。但我認為，當我們在一月份進入 23 年的指導時，我將有能力更清楚地說明我們如何看待這一點。

Cool. And then, Rick, I had one for you. There was a question earlier about WFE intensity. And if you take -- the China restrictions are taking like between $7 billion and $9 billion out of WFE for next year, maybe some of that gets replaced somewhere else. But you see all the wafers and all the yields. So would you agree that maybe domestic China WFE has sort of inflated WFE intensity to some degree over the past couple of years? And maybe it's fair to take like a 50% multiplayer? I mean I don't want a number, but just the idea that you should take some sort of a handicap toward the WFE is the dollars because the productivity of those dollars is not equivalent to dollars being spent beyond China. I'm just sort of wondering how you kind of think about that.

涼爽的。然後，瑞克，我有一個給你。之前有一個關於 WFE 強度的問題。如果你考慮 - 中國的限制措施將在明年從 WFE 中扣除 70 億至 90 億美元，也許其中一些會在其他地方被取代。但是你會看到所有的晶圓和所有的產量。那麼您是否同意在過去幾年中，中國國內的 WFE 在某種程度上誇大了 WFE 強度？也許拿一個 50% 的多人遊戲是公平的？我的意思是我不想要一個數字，但你應該對 WFE 採取某種障礙的想法就是美元，因為這些美元的生產力並不等同於在中國以外的地方花費的美元。我只是想知道你是怎麼想的。

Yes, Tim. No, I think that's true. I think that is absolutely the case that you have a situation where there was additional WFE. But it's interesting because that investment didn't really utilize EUV, so that wasn't particularly capital-intensive investment on a relative basis. So in fact, they were prevented from it. So I think over time, there is going to be more pressure on everybody that stays on the technology road maps to invest in technology that leverages, frankly, more to KLA, whether it's in logic, foundry or memory.

是的，蒂姆。不，我認為這是真的。我認為這絕對是您遇到額外 WFE 的情況。但有趣的是，這項投資並沒有真正利用 EUV，因此相對而言，這並不是特別資本密集型的投資。所以事實上，他們被阻止了。因此，我認為隨著時間的推移，所有停留在技術路線圖上的人都會面臨更大的壓力，他們將投資於坦率地說，更多地利用 KLA 的技術，無論是在邏輯、代工還是內存方面。

And so that's why, as we said, we modeled that. It is true that will come out, but it will over time be replaced. So I think, sure, the capital intensity was probably running a bit hot because of that, but that's going to get reset. So I don't think we go back into where we were, but I don't think we go all the way down either. I think it's somewhere in between, and that's how we modeled our 2026 plan.

這就是為什麼，正如我們所說，我們對此進行建模。確實會出來，但隨著時間的推移會被替換。所以我認為，當然，資本密集度可能因此而變得有點熱，但這會被重置。所以我不認為我們會回到原來的位置，但我認為我們也不會一路走下去。我認為它介於兩者之間，這就是我們為 2026 年計劃建模的方式。

Yes, I would say it's more efficient today than it was in 2016 when we saw all this escalation in investment. So there is a little bit more maturation there than what we have, let's say, 5, 6 years ago. But generally, I would also agree. I think you also have to remember that there's investment that's happening in infrastructure to support legacy domestic consumption, right? And so you have wafer investment that's happening. You have some reticle investment that's happening as well. So I think when you look at that, there is that question about how much of that is real demand versus more strategic investment. And so I think that that's -- there is some adjustment factor there, but it's probably a little bit different than what you might have thought 5 years ago or so.

是的，我會說今天比 2016 年我們看到所有這些投資升級時更有效率。所以那裡的成熟度比我們所擁有的要多一點，比如說，5、6 年前。但總的來說，我也會同意。我認為您還必須記住，基礎設施方面正在進行投資以支持傳統的國內消費，對嗎？所以你有正在發生的晶圓投資。你也有一些標線投資。所以我認為，當你看到這一點時，有一個問題是，其中有多少是真正的需求，而不是更具戰略性的投資。所以我認為那是 - 那裡有一些調整因素，但它可能與你在 5 年前左右的想法有些不同。

As you think about Process Control intensity, typically in legacy nodes, we tend to then do fairly well as facilities are starting up. But Process Control intensity in the trailing edge, unless they're there are big drivers of some major change, doesn't really -- isn't really as high as it is at the leading edge. So when you think about foundry, logic, Process Control intensity at the trailing edge, it's more like memory, maybe a little bit better than that in China, but it isn't like a leading-edge investment would provide. So it's a little bit different environment there from a KLA point of view.

當您考慮流程控制強度時，通常在遺留節點中，我們往往會在設施啟動時做得相當好。但在後緣的過程控制強度，除非它們有一些重大變化的大驅動力，否則實際上並不像在前沿那樣高。因此，當您考慮後緣的代工、邏輯和過程控制強度時，它更像是內存，可能比中國的要好一點，但它不像前沿投資所能提供的那樣。所以從KLA 的角度來看，那裡的環境有點不同。

We will take our next question from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們將向高盛的 Toshiya Hari 提出下一個問題。

I had 2 questions as well. Bren, on the China impact, in calendar '23, which you sized at $600 million to $900 million, I think that was a gross number. So just curious, given the fungibility of your tools and based on your current pipeline, roughly what percentage of that do you think you can repurpose and ship to other customers, at least on the systems side?

我也有2個問題。布倫，關於中國的影響，在 23 年日曆中，你的規模在 6 億到 9 億美元之間，我認為這是一個總數。所以只是好奇，考慮到您的工具的可替代性並基於您當前的管道，您認為您可以將其中的多少百分比重新利用並交付給其他客戶，至少在系統方面？

Yes. I think it's too early to tell, Toshiya. What we try to do, and I purposely use those words that was gross. I think as we move forward, there are certain products that we will be able to repurpose fairly easily, and there are other ones that might be a little bit more difficult depending that they're back to the sort of capacity versus technology discussion we had earlier. So I'll have a clearer picture on how to think about that.

是的。我認為現在說還為時過早，Toshiya。我們試圖做的事情，我故意使用那些粗俗的詞。我認為隨著我們的前進，我們將能夠相當容易地重新調整某些產品的用途，而其他一些產品可能會稍微困難一些，這取決於它們是否回到了我們之前討論的容量與技術之間的關係早些時候。因此，我將更清楚地了解如何考慮這一點。

But the way I thought about it was, as I said earlier, I looked at the backlog and I looked at our forecast in terms of expectation and timing of revenue and added up what we -- absent the new regulations, what -- how much revenue we would have, and that drove the range that I provided.

但我的想法是，正如我之前所說，我查看了積壓的訂單，查看了我們對收入的預期和時間安排的預測，並把我們的 - 沒有新規定的情況加起來 - 多少我們將擁有的收入，這推動了我提供的範圍。

And then we'll have to see also, as I said earlier, how as we progress here moving forward, what is truly kind of out and what is in as we start to work our way through and engage with customers and get a clearer picture from the government as we go through. So I think that's the best way I can size it right now is that impact, and I would expect for more higher end products where lead times are extended that we'll be able to reallocate some of those tools.

然後，正如我之前所說，我們還必須看到，隨著我們在這方面的進展，當我們開始努力完成工作並與客戶互動並獲得更清晰的畫面時，真正的出路和進出在我們經歷的時候從政府那裡得到。所以我認為這是我現在可以衡量它的最佳方式是影響，我希望更多的高端產品可以延長交貨時間，我們將能夠重新分配其中一些工具。

Got it. That's helpful. And then as my follow-up, I wanted to get your thoughts on OpEx into calendar '23. I think it's fair to say that the WFE outlook has deteriorated over the past 3 months or so given memory weakness and the export controls, your business is going to be a lot more resilient than the overall market. But just given how the trajectory has potentially changed from a revenue perspective, I'm sure you're sort of thinking through and revisiting your footprint into '23. How should we think about OpEx? I think you talked about on a quarterly basis, things moderating into Q1. But for the full year, if you can provide some context, that would be helpful.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後作為我的後續行動，我想將您對 OpEx 的想法納入日曆 '23。我認為可以公平地說，鑑於內存疲軟和出口管制，過去 3 個月左右的 WFE 前景惡化，您的業務將比整體市場更具彈性。但考慮到從收入的角度來看，軌跡可能發生了怎樣的變化，我相信你正在思考並重新審視你在 23 年的足跡。我們應該如何看待 OpEx？我認為您每季度都在談論，事情緩和到第一季度。但是對於全年來說，如果你能提供一些背景信息，那將會很有幫助。

Yes, I think, the easiest way to think about it right now is the flattening out. So as we get a clearer picture on what the revenue profile looks like for '23, we'll -- I'll have a better level of sort of quarter-to-quarter guidance. We've invested a lot over the last couple of years to support the revenue growth and to continue to invest in driving innovation and differentiation, which is so critical to KLA's go-to-market, and so we've made those investments. We want to get returns on those investments.

是的，我認為，現在考慮它的最簡單方法是扁平化。因此，當我們更清楚地了解 23 年的收入狀況時，我們將 - 我將獲得更高水平的季度指導。在過去的幾年裡，我們投入了大量資金來支持收入增長，並繼續投資於推動創新和差異化，這對 KLA 的上市至關重要，因此我們進行了這些投資。我們希望從這些投資中獲得回報。

So we'll be careful and judicious about how we think about it. Obviously, the reality of the business environment is a factor, but also ensuring that we have the right products to meet our customers' road map requirements over the next few years is really critical. And I think the history at KLA has shown that in a soft period that our ability to invest and deliver what our customers need when they need it. It's been fundamental to our ability to go-to-market to have the portfolio and to share the value that we deliver. So it will be a balancing act across all of those kinds of dynamics. But I think from a modeling point of view, you've got a model that it flattens out.

所以我們會小心謹慎地思考如何看待它。顯然，商業環境的現實是一個因素，但確保我們擁有合適的產品來滿足未來幾年客戶的路線圖要求也非常關鍵。而且我認為 KLA 的歷史表明，在一個疲軟的時期，我們有能力在客戶需要時進行投資和交付。擁有投資組合併分享我們提供的價值對於我們進入市場的能力至關重要。因此，這將是一種平衡所有這些動態的行為。但我認為從建模的角度來看，你已經得到了一個扁平化的模型。

There's also inflation pressures, right? We'll have a merit cycle, so we'll have to work through all of that as well, but my expectation right now is that you'll -- we're tapping the breaks and you'll see it flatten out.

還有通脹壓力，對吧？我們將有一個績效週期，所以我們也必須完成所有這些工作，但我現在的期望是你會——我們正在利用休息時間，你會看到它變平。

And we do have time for one final question. We will take our final question from Atif Malik with Citi.

我們確實有時間回答最後一個問題。我們將與花旗一起回答 Atif Malik 的最後一個問題。

First, I just want to clarify if you and your peers cannot ship the spare parts and services to these projects, will these projects kind of like halt sometime next year as they run out of spare parts? And then I have a follow-up.

首先，我想澄清一下，如果您和您的同行無法為這些項目提供備件和服務，這些項目會在明年某個時候因為備件用完而停止嗎？然後我有一個跟進。

The ability to support the tools, I can't speak for the peers. But I can just say for KLA systems, given the nature of our tools and the maintenance that's required to support them and the supply chain, which is fairly custom, that the ability to do maintenance is important to keeping the tools up and performing as designed and expected. So without service, it becomes very hard to utilize the tools that we've shipped.

支持工具的能力，我不能為同行說話。但我只能說，對於 KLA 系統，鑑於我們工具的性質以及支持它們所需的維護以及相當定制的供應鏈，進行維護的能力對於保持工具正常運行並按設計執行非常重要和預期。因此，如果沒有服務，就很難使用我們提供的工具。

Great. And then the team talked about very nice bookings momentum on auto-related products on advanced packaging and silicon carbide at the Investor Day. Can you update us what you're seeing in the auto market that end market seems to be holding quite well right now and into next year?

偉大的。然後，該團隊在投資者日談到了先進封裝和碳化矽等汽車相關產品的良好預訂勢頭。您能否向我們介紹一下您在汽車市場上看到的情況，即終端市場目前和明年似乎表現良好？

Yes. I think in automotive, it's been a nice driver for our business, and we've seen meaningful growth really across not just what's gone on in our EPC group but also -- and you have exposure in a few different places, right? We have exposure in our SPTS business, which is for process in power and semiconductors but also in our Semi PC business. And so we have a few offerings that we tailored to support that market, and so we've seen nice growth there. And we're encouraged by the rising semiconductor content, just basic content in cars, let alone EUV enhanced content and assisted capabilities moving forward.

是的。我認為在汽車領域，它對我們的業務起到了很好的推動作用，我們看到了有意義的增長，不僅體現在我們的 EPC 集團發生的事情上，而且——你在幾個不同的地方都有曝光，對吧？我們接觸過我們的 SPTS 業務，該業務適用於電力和半導體的工藝，但也涉及我們的 Semi PC 業務。因此，我們有一些為支持該市場而量身定制的產品，因此我們看到了那裡的良好增長。我們對不斷增長的半導體內容感到鼓舞，只是汽車中的基本內容，更不用說 EUV 增強內容和輔助能力向前發展了。

So I don't have the exact number in terms of what it is. I want to say it's about $700 million or so this year in '22 in terms of what we'll call kind of auto exposure from a revenue point of view, and we would expect to see that grow over time. And we're engaging at levels with our customers that are driving a different way of thinking about Process Control, given the reliability requirements in auto and the margin structure, the cost of defectivity, the cost of recall and so on.

所以我沒有確切的數字。我想說的是，從收入的角度來看，今年 22 年的汽車曝光率約為 7 億美元，我們預計會隨著時間的推移而增長。考慮到汽車的可靠性要求和利潤結構、缺陷成本、召回成本等，我們正在與我們的客戶進行不同程度的接觸，這些客戶正在推動對過程控制的不同思考方式。

All right. We thank you and we appreciate. Yes. Thanks so much for the questions, everyone. I appreciate your time on a busy earnings week, and we will be in touch. I'll turn the call back over to the operator to conclude.

好的。我們感謝你，我們很感激。是的。非常感謝大家的提問。感謝您在忙碌的收入周中抽出寶貴時間，我們會與您聯繫。我會把電話轉回給接線員來結束。

This concludes the KLA Corporation September Quarter 2022 Earnings Call and Webcast. Please disconnect your line at this time. Have a wonderful day.

KLA Corporation 2022 年 9 月季度財報電話會議和網絡直播到此結束。此時請斷開您的線路。有一個美好的一天。