科磊 (KLAC) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Brittany, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the KLA Corporation September Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

午安.我叫布列塔尼，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加KLA公司2022年9月季度業績電話會議及網路直播。 （接線生指示）謝謝。

I will now turn the call over to Kevin Kessel, Vice President of Investor Relations and Market Analytics. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話轉給投資者關係和市場分析副總裁 Kevin Kessel。請您發言。

Thank you, and welcome to KLA's Fiscal Q1 2023 Earnings Call to discuss the results of the September quarter and our December quarter outlook. Joining me is Rick Wallace, our Chief Executive Officer; and Bren Higgins, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，歡迎參加KLA 2023財年第一季財報電話會議，討論9月季度的業績以及12月季度的展望。與我一同出席的還有我們的執行長Rick Wallace和財務長Bren Higgins。

During this call, we will discuss our results released today after the market close in the form of a press release, shareholder letter and slide deck, which can all be found on the KLA IR website.

在本次電話會議中，我們將以新聞稿、股東信函和幻燈片的形式討論今天收盤後發布的業績，這些都可以在 KLA IR 網站上找到。

Today's discussion is presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. Whenever references are made to full year business performance, they are calendar year references. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results is in the earnings material posted on our website.

除非另有說明，今天的討論均基於非 GAAP 財務數據。凡提及全年業績，均指自然年度業績。 GAAP 與非 GAAP 業績的詳細對帳表已發佈於我們網站上的收益資料中。

Our IR website also contains future investor events as well as presentations, corporate governance information and links to our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report and quarterly reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q.

我們的 IR 網站還包含未來投資者活動以及演示文稿、公司治理資訊和我們向 SEC 提交的文件的鏈接，包括我們最新的年度報告以及 10-K 和 10-Q 表格的季度報告。

Our comments today are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factor disclosure in our SEC filings. Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on the call today, are also subject to those risks, and KLA cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

我們今天的評論受我們提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件中風險因素揭露所反映的風險和不確定性的影響。任何前瞻性陳述，包括我們今天在電話會議上所做的陳述，也受這些風險的影響，KLA 無法保證這些前瞻性陳述一定會實現。我們的實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有顯著差異。

Our CEO, Rick Wallace, will begin the call with some brief quarterly comments and highlights before discussing the semiconductor industry demand environment, including our business in China. Bren Higgins, our CFO, will conclude with the financial highlights as well as our guidance and outlook.

我們的執行長 Rick Wallace 將在電話會議開始時簡要介紹季度業績和亮點，然後討論半導體行業的需求環境，包括我們在中國的業務。我們的財務長 Bren Higgins 將總結財務亮點以及我們的業績指引和展望。

I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Rick Wallace. Rick?

現在我將電話轉給我們的執行長 Rick Wallace。 Rick？

Thank you all for joining us today. I'll spend some time sharing highlights of KLA's performance in the quarter, touch on our business in China and provide a brief perspective on the overall semiconductor demand environment.

感謝大家今天的參與。我將花一些時間分享KLA本季業績的亮點，談談我們在中國的業務，並簡要介紹整體半導體需求環境。

Before we get into details, I'd like to first acknowledge our global KLA teams who have continued to demonstrate perseverance in navigating dynamic challenges to deliver for our customers. Their commitment is evident in our results.

在深入探討細節之前，我想先感謝我們全球的KLA團隊，他們始終堅持不懈地應對各種挑戰，為客戶提供優質服務。他們的奉獻精神在我們的業績中得到了充分體現。

KLA's September quarter demonstrates strong customer demand across major product groups. Specifically for this quarter, record revenue of $2.7 billion was at the top of the guidance range, growing 31% on a year-over-year basis and 10% sequentially. Quarterly non-GAAP net income topped $1 billion for the first time. GAAP earnings per share was $7.20 and non-GAAP EPS was $7.06, each above guidance ranges.

KLA 9 月季度業績表明，客戶對主要產品系列的需求強勁。具體而言，本季營收達到創紀錄的 27 億美元，達到預期區間上限，年增 31%，季增 10%。季度非公認會計準則淨利潤首次突破 10 億美元。公認會計準則每股收益為 7.20 美元，非公認會計準則每股收益為 7.06 美元，均高於預期區間。

Our performance is a reflection of the increasingly essential role Process Control plays in the development of enabling technology and the long-term product road maps of our customers. As drivers for semiconductor demand continue to diversify beyond traditional PC and consumer-facing markets, Process Control is considered critical in enabling customers to execute on node and technology transitions. As this demand backdrop continues to evolve, our KLA operating model ensures focus on delivering for our customers, navigating supply chain challenges and continued investment in R&D.

我們的績效體現了製程控制在賦能技術開發和客戶長期產品路線圖中日益重要的角色。隨著半導體需求驅動力不斷多元化，超越傳統的個人電腦和消費者導向的市場，製程控制在助力客戶實現節點和技術轉型方面至關重要。隨著需求環境的不斷發展，我們的 KLA 營運模式確保專注於為客戶提供服務、應對供應鏈挑戰並持續投入研發。

Now I will quickly summarize key highlights for the quarter. First, KLA continues to deliver strong relative outperformance versus peers and is positioned to be one of the fastest-growing Tier 1 WFE equipment suppliers in calendar 2022, substantially outperforming expected overall WFE market growth. Second, our Patterning systems revenue grew 49% sequentially and 67% on a year-over-year basis.

現在，我將快速總結本季的主要亮點。首先，KLA 繼續保持強勁的業績表現，超越同行，並預計在 2022 年成為成長最快的一級 WFE 設備供應商之一，大幅超越預期的整體 WFE 市場成長。其次，我們的製版系統營收季增 49%，年增 67%。

Third, KLA delivered strong quarterly revenue in our SPTS segment. KLA has intensified efforts in advanced packaging and automotive electronics, leveraging the combined portfolios of both the Semiconductor Process Control and EPC groups. Fourth, the KLA Services business grew to $529 million in the September quarter, up 16% year-over-year. Finally, operating cash flow topped $1 billion for the first time, and we generated quarterly free cash flow of $927 million and free cash flow margin of 34%. For the 12 months ended September 30, 2022, total free cash flow grew from 37% to $3.14 billion.

第三，KLA在SPTS業務領域實現了強勁的季度營收。 KLA加大了在先進封裝和汽車電子領域的投入，充分利用了半導體製程控制和EPC集團的綜合產品組合。第四，KLA服務業務在9月季度成長至5.29億美元，年增16%。最後，營運現金流首次突破10億美元，我們創造了9.27億美元的季度自由現金流，自由現金流利潤率為34%。截至2022年9月30日的12個月，自由現金流總成長了37%，達到31.4億美元。

Total capital returns in the quarter were $278 million, comprising $90 million in share repurchases and $188 million in dividends paid. Total capital returns over 12 months ended September 30 were $5.2 billion or 166% of free cash flow and included $4.6 billion in share repurchases and $664 million in dividends.

本季總資本報酬為2.78億美元，其中包括9,000萬美元的股票回購和1.88億美元的股利支付。截至9月30日的12個月內，總資本回報為52億美元，相當於自由現金流的166%，其中包括46億美元的股票回購和6.64億美元的股息支付。

Early in October, the U.S. government issued new regulations to control aspects of the U.S. semiconductor industry trade with China. Specific to KLA, a meaningful amount of our business in China is focused on legacy node investment, which is not the focus of the recent export restrictions. However, our system and service revenue will be adversely impacted going forward as we are unable to provide systems and support to certain customers for certain end users. We are assessing the broader implications and engaging collaboratively with the U.S. government to provide the necessary information about our products and services to fully determine the impact on our business operations moving forward.

十月初，美國政府發布了新規，旨在管控美國半導體產業與中國的貿易。就KLA而言，我們在中國的大部分業務集中在傳統節點投資上，而這並非近期出口限制的重點。然而，由於我們無法為特定最終用戶的特定客戶提供系統和支持，我們未來的系統和服務收入將受到不利影響。我們正在評估其更廣泛的影響，並與美國政府合作，提供有關我們產品和服務的必要信息，以全面評估其對我們未來業務運營的影響。

As we look at the industry demand environment, growth for the semiconductor industry has evolved to be more strategic with more diverse end market mix. For the near term, the recognized excess inventories driven by a slowdown in consumer electronics markets, such as PC and mobility, is having an impact on semiconductor device pricing, particularly in memory.

從產業需求環境來看，半導體產業的成長變得更加策略性，終端市場結構也更加多元化。短期內，個人電腦和行動裝置等消費性電子市場放緩導致的庫存過剩，正在對半導體裝置（尤其是記憶體）的定價產生影響。

As a result, semiconductor customers are adjusting CY '23 CapEx budgets lower, with the largest impact to date coming from memory customers. However, long-term growth for the semiconductor equipment industry continues due to the prioritization of R&D investment at the leading edge, continued investment in legacy nodes and growth in enabling technologies such as advanced packaging. Considering all factors, KLA's long-term targets announced at our Investor Day in June remain intact.

因此，半導體客戶正在下調2023財年的資本支出預算，迄今受影響最大的是記憶體客戶。然而，由於優先考慮前沿技術的研發投入、對傳統製程節點的持續投資以及先進封裝等使能技術的成長，半導體設備產業的長期成長仍將持續。綜合考慮所有因素，KLA在6月投資者日宣布的長期目標保持不變。

In summary, KLA's September quarter results demonstrate sustainable outperformance and highlight the critical nature of KLA's products and services. Our teams continue to navigate and execute against dynamic challenges, and KLA remains well positioned with a comprehensive portfolio to meet evolving customer requirements. The KLA operating model and our strategic objectives are the foundation for our sustained technology leadership, wide competitive moat, leading financial performance, strong free cash flow generation and consistent returns to shareholders.

總而言之，KLA 九月季度的業績展現出持續的優異表現，並凸顯了 KLA 產品和服務的關鍵性。我們的團隊持續探索並應對不斷變化的挑戰，KLA 憑藉全面的產品組合，始終處於有利地位，能夠滿足不斷變化的客戶需求。 KLA 的營運模式和策略目標是我們持續保持技術領先地位、強大的競爭優勢、領先的財務業績、強勁的自由現金流產生能力以及持續的股東回報的基礎。

Now our CFO, Bren Higgins, will review our September quarterly financial highlights and outlook. Bren?

現在，我們的財務長 Bren Higgins 將回顧我們 9 月的季度財務亮點和展望。布倫？

Thank you. As you heard from Rick, KLA's September quarter results were strong, better than expected and demonstrated our consistent successful execution. While supply chain challenges continue in certain areas and are still limiting output, we have seen marginal improvement as new supplier capacity has come online to meet our requirements. Our continued focus on meeting customer needs while expanding market leadership, growing revenue, sustaining industry-leading growth and operating margins, generating strong free cash flow and maintaining our long-term strategy of assertive capital allocation is what makes us successful.

謝謝。正如 Rick 所說，KLA 9 月季度業績強勁，好於預期，展現了我們一貫的成功執行力。儘管某些領域仍面臨供應鏈挑戰，產量仍受到限制，但隨著新供應商產能投入使用以滿足我們的需求，我們已看到業績略有改善。我們持續專注於滿足客戶需求，同時擴大市場領導地位，增加收入，保持行業領先的成長和營業利潤率，創造強勁的自由現金流，並堅持積極的資本配置的長期策略，這些正是我們成功的關鍵。

Quarterly revenue was $2.724 billion at the top of the guided range of $2.475 billion to $2.725 billion. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $7.06, above the guided range of $5.70 to $6.80. GAAP diluted EPS was $7.20.

季度營收為27.24億美元，處於24.75億美元至27.25億美元預期區間的上限。非公認會計準則（Non-GAAP）攤薄後每股收益為7.06美元，高於5.70美元至6.80美元的預期區間。公認會計準則（GAAP）攤薄後每股收益為7.20美元。

Non-GAAP gross margin was 40 basis points, above the midpoint of guidance at 63.4% at Semiconductor Process Control systems, which carry stronger gross margins delivered virtually all the revenue upside from the guidance midpoint. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $526 million, slightly below our expectation of $530 million for the quarter. Non-GAAP operating margin was strong at 44.1%. Quarterly non-GAAP net income topped the $1 billion level for the first time ever. GAAP net income was $1.03 billion. Cash flow from operations was $1.01 billion. And free cash flow was $927 million, resulting in a free cash flow conversion of 92% and a free cash flow margin of 34%. The breakdown of revenue by reportable segments and end markets in major products and regions can be found within the shareholder letter and slides.

非 GAAP 毛利率為 40 個基點，高於指導中點 63.4%；半導體製程控制系統的毛利率更高，幾乎貢獻了所有相對於指導中點的收入成長。非 GAAP 營運費用為 5.26 億美元，略低於我們預期的 5.3 億美元。非 GAAP 營運利潤率強勁，達到 44.1%。季度非 GAAP 淨收入首次超過 10 億美元。 GAAP 淨收入為 10.3 億美元。經營現金流為 10.1 億美元。自由現金流為 9.27 億美元，自由現金流轉換率為 92%，自由現金流利潤率為 34%。按可報告分部和主要產品和地區終端市場劃分的收入明細可在股東信和幻燈片中找到。

Switching to the balance sheet, KLA ended the quarter with almost $3 billion in total cash, debt of $6.3 billion and a flexible and attractive bond maturity profile supported by strong investment-grade ratings from all 3 agencies. Our balance sheet offers a unique capability to fund our growth strategies, both organic and inorganic, and providing ongoing attractive capital returns to shareholders. Over the last 12 months, KLA has returned $5.2 billion to shareholders, including $4.6 billion in share repurchases and $664 million in dividends paid with total capital returns amounting to 166% of free cash flow.

從資產負債表來看，KLA 本季末擁有近 30 億美元的現金，63 億美元的債務，以及靈活且具有吸引力的債券期限結構，並獲得了三家評級機構的強勁投資級評級。我們的資產負債表為我們提供了獨特的能力，能夠為我們的有機和無機成長策略提供資金，並為股東提供持續可觀的資本回報。在過去 12 個月中，KLA 已向股東返還 52 億美元，其中包括 46 億美元的股票回購和 6.64 億美元的股息，總資本回報率相當於自由現金流的 166%。

Turning to our outlook. KLA continues to deliver sequential growth and strong relative financial performance. Based on the midpoint of our December quarter guidance, KLA is positioned for mid-20% revenue growth for the total company in calendar '22, with Semiconductor Process Control systems growing several points faster than the company average. Furthermore, this business is expected to significantly outperform the overall WFE industry growth, which is currently projected to be up mid- to high single digits to the low $90 billion range.

展望未來，KLA 持續維持季比成長，財務表現也相對強勁。根據我們 12 月季度業績指引的中位數，KLA 預計 2022 年公司整體營收成長率將達到 20% 左右，其中半導體製程控制系統的成長速度將比公司平均高出幾個百分點。此外，預計該業務的成長速度將顯著超過 WFE 產業的整體成長，目前預計 WFE 產業的整體營收成長率將達到中高個位數，達到 900 億美元左右。

Looking ahead, we expect industry spending to slow. Though early, we are planning our business based on the expectation of CY '23 WFE declining approximately 20% based on increasing global macroeconomic concerns and recent public statements from several customers, particularly in memory, and the impact of the new U.S. government regulations on native China investment. This WFE estimate reflects our current tops-down assessment of industry demand as follows.

展望未來，我們預期產業支出將放緩。儘管目前還為時過早，但我們的業務規劃基於以下預期：2023年WFE將下降約20%，這主要源於全球宏觀經濟擔憂加劇、近期多家客戶（尤其是內存行業）的公開聲明，以及美國政府新規對中國本土投資的影響。 WFE的預測反映了我們目前自上而下對產業需求的評估，具體如下。

In memory, we expect WFE investment to decline by more than the market as memory customers respond to lower consumer demand by cutting production and factory utilizations to bring device supply in line with demand. We expect foundry/logic to decline less than the overall market.

在記憶體領域，我們預計WFE投資的降幅將超過市場，因為記憶體客戶會透過削減產量和工廠利用率來應對消費者需求下降，以使設備供應與需求保持一致。我們預期晶圓代工/邏輯元件的降幅將小於整體市場。

Specific to KLA, we are still assessing the impact of the new China export regulations. Our preliminary assessment for the combined gross direct impact on our revenue based on our existing backlog and sales funnel forecast is in the range of approximately $600 million to $900 million in calendar '23. This reflects systems and service impact with service representing approximately 10% to 15% of the total. This estimate is before any potential system reallocation for products where supply is meaningfully below current demand, which has resulted in significant lead time to other customers. Given our backlog and forecast, we expect that we will be able to reallocate certain tools to other customers as we move through next year.

具體到KLA，我們仍在評估新的中國出口法規的影響。根據我們現有的積壓訂單和銷售漏斗預測，我們初步估計，2023年該法規對我們收入的直接總影響約為6億至9億美元。這反映了系統和服務方面的影響，其中服務約佔總影響的10%至15%。此估算未考慮任何潛在的系統重新分配，因為這些產品的供應量明顯低於當前需求，這導致其他客戶的交貨時間顯著延長。鑑於我們的積壓訂單和預測，我們預計明年我們將能夠將某些工具重新分配給其他客戶。

KLA's unique broad portfolio differentiation and primary value proposition is focused on enabling technology transitions, which our customers continue to invest in regardless of business environment. While capacity plans can change, technology road map investment tends to be more resilient. This adds additional confidence in our business expectations as customers align shipment slots with road map requirements. In this environment, we will continue to focus on meeting customer requirements, maintaining a high level of investment in R&D to advance our product road maps and KLA's market leadership and delivering strong relative revenue growth and financial performance.

KLA 獨特的廣泛產品組合差異化和核心價值主張專注於實現技術轉型，無論商業環境如何，我們的客戶都會持續投資於此。雖然產能計畫可能會發生變化，但技術路線圖的投資往往更具韌性。隨著客戶根據路線圖要求調整出貨時段，這增強了我們對業務預期的信心。在此環境下，我們將繼續專注於滿足客戶需求，保持高水準的研發投入，以推進我們的產品路線圖和 KLA 的市場領導地位，並實現強勁的相對收入成長和財務業績。

Our December quarter guidance is as follows. Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $2.8 billion, plus or minus $150 million. The gross direct impact of the new China regulations on the December quarter revenue guidance is approximately $100 million. Foundry/logic is forecasted to be approximately 76%, and memory is expected to be around 24% of Semi PC systems revenue. Within memory, DRAM is expected to be about 55% of the segment mix and NAND 45%. We forecast non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 61.5% to 63.5% due primarily to expected product and segment mix.

我們12月季度的預期如下。預計總收入在28億美元左右，上下浮動1.5億美元。中國新規對12月季度營收預期的直接總影響約為1億美元。預計晶圓代工/邏輯晶片收入約佔76%，記憶體收入約佔半PC系統收入的24%。在記憶體領域，預計DRAM約佔55%，NAND約佔45%。我們預測非公認會計準則下的毛利率將在61.5%至63.5%之間，這主要取決於預期的產品和細分市場結構。

Looking ahead, KLA will continue to balance investments in technology and infrastructure to support our long-term growth objectives with the expectation of a softening near-term outlook. As a result, operating expenses will grow to approximately $550 million in the December quarter with growth in quarterly operating expenses expected to flatten out as we move through calendar '23.

展望未來，KLA將繼續在技術和基礎設施投資之間取得平衡，以支持我們的長期成長目標，同時預計短期前景將有所疲軟。因此，12月季度的營運費用將增加約5.5億美元，預計隨著2023年日曆的到來，季度營運費用的成長將趨於穩定。

Other model assumptions for the December quarter include other income and expense net of approximately $66 million and an effective tax rate of approximately 13.5%. Finally, GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $5.94 to $7.34 and non-GAAP diluted EPS in the range of $6.30 to $7.70. EPS guidance is based on a fully diluted share count of approximately 140 million shares.

12月季度的其他模型假設包括其他收入和支出淨額約6,600萬美元，有效稅率約13.5%。最終，預計GAAP稀釋每股收益在5.94美元至7.34美元之間，非GAAP稀釋每股收益在6.30美元至7.70美元之間。每股盈餘指引基於約1.4億股完全稀釋股份。

In conclusion, although the CY '23 outlook for WFE demand has softened, we remain confident that the secular trends driving long-term semiconductor industry demand and investments in WFE are durable and compelling. Broad-based customer demand, the increasing strategic role semiconductors are playing in influencing national industrial policy and simultaneous investments supporting growing semiconductor content across technology nodes remain important trends. These are long-term secular growth drivers for the industry as technology investment and node transitions reflect the value that semiconductors in our industry have in lowering costs for our customers and enabling a broader application universe for semiconductor-based technology across multiple end markets.

總而言之，儘管2023年晶圓代工（WFE）需求前景減弱，但我們仍然相信，推動半導體產業長期需求和WFE投資的長期趨勢將持久且引人注目。廣泛的客戶需求、半導體在影響國家產業政策方面日益增強的戰略作用，以及支持跨技術節點不斷增長的半導體內容的同步投資，仍然是重要的趨勢。這些是該行業的長期成長動力，因為技術投資和節點轉型反映了半導體在我們行業中的價值，這些價值有助於降低客戶成本，並為基於半導體的技術在多個終端市場中拓展應用範圍。

For KLA, considering our strong track record of execution and the power of our portfolio strategy, we have confidence in our ability to continue to deliver sustainable relative outperformance. We will continue to maintain a high level of investment in our product development road maps to enable market share expansion and support customers' technology road maps and multiyear investment plans. This provides an element of stability that shores up our confidence in the demand outlook for the future.

對於KLA而言，鑑於我們卓越的執行力和強大的產品組合策略，我們有信心繼續保持持續的相對優異表現。我們將繼續在產品開發路線圖上保持高水準的投資，以擴大市場份額，並支援客戶的技術路線圖和多年期投資計畫。這為我們提供了穩定性，增強了我們對未來需求前景的信心。

These factors, combined with the KLA operating model that guides our execution, positions us to continue to deliver strong relative performance as we execute our strategic objectives. These objectives fuel our growth, consistent operational excellence and differentiation across the diverse product and service offering. They are also the foundation of our sustained technology leadership, wide competitive moat, industry-leading financial performance, history of robust free cash flow generation and consistent and growing capital returns to shareholders.

這些因素，加上指導我們執行的 KLA 營運模式，使我們能夠在執行策略目標的過程中繼續保持強勁的相對業績。這些目標推動著我們的成長、持續的卓越營運以及多元化產品和服務的差異化。它們也是我們持續保持技術領先地位、廣泛的競爭障礙、行業領先的財務業績、強勁的自由現金流生成歷史以及持續增長的股東資本回報的基礎。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Kevin to begin the Q&A session. Kevin?

說完這些，我會把電話轉回給凱文，開始問答環節。凱文？

Thanks, Bren. Operator, can you please queue for questions?

謝謝，Bren。接線員，請問可以排隊回答問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) We'll now take our first question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）現在我們來回答摩根大通的 Harlan Sur 提出的第一個問題。

Congratulations on the solid quarterly execution and strong free cash flow. As you mentioned, the team has been outperforming WFE and Process Control spending growth for the last few years. No different this year, right? I mean it looks like given your December quarter guidance, your Process Control systems business is going to be up like 30% to 35% when WFE is only up high single digit. I know in the last downturn, like 2019, not as severe, but has potentially 2023 is, but you guys actually grew your Process Control and services revenues when WFE was down back then. So kind of given all of this, like do you think guys just provide some sort of rough framework for thinking about the team's revenue and earnings power potential with industry spending down about 20% next year?

恭喜你們取得了穩健的季度業績和強勁的自由現金流。正如您所提到的，過去幾年，團隊在WFE和過程控制支出成長方面一直表現優異。今年也不例外，對吧？我的意思是，根據你們12月季度的業績預期，你們的製程控制系統業務看起來將成長30%到35%，而WFE僅成長了高個位數。我知道在上一次經濟衰退中，例如2019年，沒有那麼嚴重，但2023年可能會如此，但你們的過程控制和服務收入實際上是在WFE下滑的時候增長的。所以，考慮到所有這些，你們是否認為，在明年行業支出下降約20%的情況下，你們能否提供一個粗略的框架來思考團隊的收入和盈利潛力？

Yes, Harlan. It's Bren. Thank you for the comments, and I'll start here, and Rick can join after. So I think the way to think about KLA performance is typically, historically, most of the volatility we've seen in WFE has been in the memory space. And as you know, Process Control intensity and memory is quite a bit lower than it is in foundry and logic. So I think you have to go back a couple of decades. I think we've outperformed WFE in any down year that WFE has had. So I think that that's always been an anchor for us.

是的，Harlan。我是Bren。感謝您的評論，我先從這裡開始，Rick稍後可以加入。所以我認為，看待KLA表現的方式通常是，從歷史上看，我們在WFE中看到的大多數波動都發生在記憶體領域。而且如您所知，製程控制強度和記憶體比代工和邏輯電路要低得多。所以我認為你必須回溯到幾十年前。我認為在WFE經歷的任何低迷年份，我們的表現都優於WFE。所以我認為這一直是我們的支柱。

We also tend to support customers that are investing in their road maps, right? So as they pull back on their capacity investments, they continue to invest in technology, and so there's a certain amount of business that -- with KLA that continues to happen almost irrespective of their revenue levels. So that tends to be a factor for us as well.

我們也傾向於支持那些正在投資路線圖的客戶，對吧？所以，當他們減少產能投資時，他們會繼續投資技術，所以無論他們的收入水平如何，與KLA都有一定數量的業務持續進行。所以這對我們來說也是一個因素。

And then finally, customers usually continue to run the installed base, and so service is -- continues to operate. We have a contract strain that is the majority of the revenue of 75% plus of the revenue. And so while they're pulling back on CapEx investments, they still tend to run the installed bases pretty heavily. And given how they buy Process Control generally in terms of buying what they need and rely on us to maximize uptime for those systems that it tends to also be an anchor as we move through down periods in the CapEx environment.

最後，客戶通常會繼續運行已安裝的基礎設施，因此服務仍在繼續運作。我們的合約壓力佔收入的75%以上。因此，儘管他們正在削減資本支出，但他們仍然傾向於大量運行已安裝的基礎設施。考慮到他們通常購買製程控制產品，即購買他們需要的產品，並依靠我們最大限度地延長這些系統的正常運行時間，這往往也是我們在資本支出環境低迷時期的一個支柱。

Great. And then on my follow-up, good to see the strong EUV mask inspection shipments and Patterning segment was up almost 70% year-over-year. I think that's reflective of the strong EUV adoption this year. And despite the weaker WFE backdrop for next year, I think that the EUV lithography outlook continues to be strong, right? I mean continued penetration of EUV into memory and logic and foundry, and so this should bode well or continue to bode well for your mask inspection demand. But I know last year the mask inspection segment underperformed positive control on growth. What's the team's outlook for your mask inspection business this year and next year, given the relatively better fundamental outlook in lithography?

太好了。接下來，我很高興看到EUV掩模檢測出貨量強勁，而圖案化部分則是年增了近70%。我認為這反映了今年EUV的強勁應用。儘管明年WFE（全功率半導體）市場前景疲軟，但我認為EUV光刻前景依然強勁，對吧？我的意思是，EUV將繼續滲透到記憶體、邏輯元件和晶圓代工領域，因此這對你們的掩模偵測需求來說應該是一個好兆頭，或者說會持續向好。但我知道去年掩模檢測部分的成長表現不如預期。鑑於光刻領域的基本面前景相對較好，團隊對你們今年和明年的掩模檢測業務有何展望？

So yes, Harlan, you have it right. So this year is actually a very strong year for reticle inspection. I would expect reticle inspection to outperform the overall Semi PC business within the company. So a very strong year and certainly driven by EUV as 90% plus of EUV reticles in production are running through KLA systems.

是的，Harlan，你說得對。所以，今年其實是光罩偵測業務非常強勁的一年。我預計光罩檢測業務的表現將超過公司整體的半導體光罩業務。所以，今年非常強勁，無疑是因為EUV光罩的推動，因為目前90%以上的EUV光罩生產都在使用KLA的系統。

As we look at next year, I think that there will be continued demand there as you see the -- start to see more investment in the 3-nanometer node. So I would expect the [rapid] business to probably continue to perform better than Semi PC. There's also some investment in infrastructure that's happening in some of the legacy mask inspection and new infrastructure that's being built in China to support the legacy reticles, and so there's also an aspect of investment that's happening there as well. So I would expect it to have another good year this year, a strong year in '22, but also a strong year '23 as well.

展望明年，我認為隨著3奈米節點的投資開始增加，那裡的需求將會持續成長。因此，我預計[快速]業務的表現可能會繼續優於半導體產業。此外，一些傳統掩模版檢測基礎設施也正在進行投資，而中國正在建造新的基礎設施以支援傳統光罩，因此那裡也正在進行投資。因此，我預計今年將是另一個好年頭，2022年將是強勁的一年，2023年也將是強勁的一年。

Yes. And one other thing, Harlan, I think that -- one of the things that contributed to our strength is share gain due to new capabilities on our products. So part of what we were in development for was continuing extending the 6xx product to be able to serve more of the EUV market. So as we do that, we saw some performance. So overall, the segment is good, and then we had some -- the benefit of some share gain as well.

是的。 Harlan，還有一件事，我認為我們實力增強的因素之一是由於我們產品的新功能所帶來的市佔率成長。因此，我們開發的部分目標是繼續擴展6xx產品，以便能夠服務更多的EUV市場。隨著我們這樣做，我們看到了一些業績。所以總的來說，這個細分市場表現良好，我們也獲得了一些市佔率成長的好處。

We will take our next question from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

我們將回答 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar 提出的下一個問題。

Rick, just wanted to follow up on the earlier question. I understand you guys typically outperform Process Control like a normal cyclical downturn. But if you overlay the fact that some of your peers had supply issues, which you of course did not, and Process Control tends to be more early cyclical. If you overlay those 2 components do you still expect your Process Control revenue to outperform WFE next year? And then I have a follow-up.

Rick，我只是想跟進一下之前的問題。我知道你們的業績通常會好於製程控制業務，就像正常的週期性衰退一樣。但是，如果考慮到一些同行遇到了供應問題（而你們當然沒有），而且製程控制業務往往更早受到週期性的影響。如果考慮到這兩個因素，你仍然預期明年製程控制業務的收入會超過WFE嗎？然後我還有一個後續問題。

We do for 2 reasons. One it is true that some of them had more challenges than we did, but we had our own. We could have shipped -- we built backlog, we could have shipped more if we had more capacity. But the other thing is the decline in WFE is going to be based more in memory than in foundry and logic. So that alone helps us in terms of the mix. So I think we're in pretty good position to outperform WFE. Nobody really knows, of course, what '23 is going to look like. But with that set-up, we're in pretty good shape.

我們這樣做有兩個原因。首先，有些公司確實比我們面臨更多挑戰，但我們也有自己的挑戰。我們本來可以出貨——我們累積了積壓訂單，如果產能增加，我們本來可以出貨更多。其次，WFE 的下滑將更多地基於內存，而不是代工和邏輯。因此，僅憑這一點，我們就能在產品組合上獲得優勢。所以我認為我們處於非常有利的位置，可以超越 WFE。當然，沒有人真正知道 2023 年會是什麼樣子。但有了這樣的佈局，我們的狀況相當不錯。

Got it. Got it. Very helpful, Rick. And then just a follow-up on services. What percentage of your services is from China or domestic China? And also if WFE is down 20%, what do you think happens to service business next year?

明白了。明白了。非常有幫助，里克。然後我想問服務業務。你們的服務有多少比例來自中國或中國國內？另外，如果WFE下降20%，您認為明年服務業務會怎樣？

Yes. I don't think we've broken that out. I would say it's less than -- if our systems business in China and Semi PC is somewhere between 20% and 25%, I would expect the service stream is less because it's less developed, right? It's newer in terms of the investment that's happened, and so it would be lower than as a mix of service revenue than that is a mix of system revenue.

是的。我想我們還沒有細分。我想說的是，如果我們在中國的系統業務和半PC業務佔比在20%到25%之間，那麼我預期服務業務的佔比會更低，因為它還不夠成熟，對吧？就投資而言，服務業務比較新，所以服務收入佔比會低於系統收入佔比。

I would expect service to continue to grow next year. I think it will be below the -- in that WFE environment, it'd be below what our long-term growth rate target of 12% to 14%. I think it will probably be somewhere in single digits. There is a little bit of an FX headwind that happens to service as you have the strong dollar but you have a lot of service revenues denominated in local currencies. You gave a little bit of a natural hedge because you also have cost denominated as well. But there is a little bit of a headwind that's coming on service revenue growth from FX. But I think we'll probably be somewhere in kind of mid-to high single-digit service growth given expectations of WFE that are down 20%.

我預計明年服務業務將持續成長。我認為在WFE環境下，服務業務的成長速度將低於我們12%至14%的長期成長率目標。我認為成長速度可能在個位數左右。由於美元走強，服務業務會面臨一些外匯逆風，但許多服務收入是以當地貨幣計價的。這提供了一點自然對沖，因為成本也以當地貨幣計價。但外匯對服務收入成長也有一些不利影響。但考慮到WFE預期下降20%，我認為我們的服務收入成長可能會達到中等至高個位數。

Krish, when we set the ['26 plan] at our Investor Day, we didn't know when, but we anticipated there'd be this digestion period of WFE just based on the historic growth, so we're still modeling the targets that we set out for ['26]. And we didn't know when, but it seems like it's coming in '23, and we weren't sure if it was '23 or '24, but it was going to be in that period. But overall, we feel pretty good about where we are positioned relative to that longer-term trend line. And as Bren said, we'll go under it, but then we've got a lot of systems that are shipping now, for example, that will come off warranty. And so they'll be going into services as we move forward, and feel pretty good about where we are relative to the long-term services plan.

Krish，我們在投資者日制定[2026年計畫]時並不確定具體時間，但根據歷史成長情況，我們預期WFE會有一個消化期，所以我們仍在模擬[2026年]的目標。我們也不知道具體時間，但看起來會在2023年實現，我們不確定是2023年還是2024年，但應該會在那個時期。但總的來說，我們對自己相對於長期趨勢線的定位感到相當滿意。正如Bren所說，我們會低於這個趨勢線，但我們現在有很多正在發貨的系統，例如，它們即將過保。因此，隨著我們向前發展，它們將進入服務領域，並且我們對相對於長期服務計劃的定位感到相當滿意。

We will take our next question from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們將回答 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse 提出的下一個問題。

I guess first question, I was hoping you could speak to changes in backlog over the last 3 months, how you're kind of incorporating the changes around domestic China embargo. And when are you expecting to get back to kind of your normalized lead times of 6 to 7 months?

我想問第一個問題，我希望你們能談談過去三個月積壓訂單的變化，以及你們是如何應對中國國內禁運帶來的變化的。您預計什麼時候能恢復到6到7個月的正常交貨週期？

C.J., it's a good question. And we'll have the specific numbers in the 10-Q, which we'll likely file on -- probably by the end of this week. But we did grow backlog a little bit. So remaining performance obligations will be somewhere in the mid-13 range. So some modest growth of 13.1 as a reference point in the June quarter. We did scrub a little bit of the backlog given the new China regulations. I think there's more work to be done there as we move into the December quarter. It's still fairly fluid, and we're working through our own assessment of the new regulations and engaging with the government about how to think about certain situations there. So I would expect to see a little bit come out. Certainly, we grew it a little bit this quarter, and I expect a little bit more effort or a little bit more there as we move into the December quarter.

C.J.，這是個好問題。具體數字會在10-Q財報中公佈，我們可能會在本週末提交。不過，我們的積壓訂單確實略有增加。因此，剩餘的履約義務將在13個左右的區間內。因此，以6月季度的13.1作為參考點，積壓訂單量會略有成長。考慮到中國的新規，我們確實清理了一些積壓訂單。我認為，隨著12月季度的到來，我們在這方面還有更多工作要做。目前情況仍然相當不確定，我們正在根據新規則進行評估，並與政府部門溝通，探討如何應對那裡的一些情況。所以我預計會看到一些結果。當然，本季我們的積壓訂單量略有增加，我預計隨著12月季度的到來，我們將在這方面投入更多精力。

So I think from a lead time point of view, it's been a very across certain products. And we have certain products that are high-end sort of technology-enabling products like broadband plasma inspection, our retical inspection tools, our Voyager laser scanning system, SP7 Surfscan products. Those lead times remain very extended. I think it will take some time because we're dependent on incremental capacity to come online to be able to work through some of that backlog. And I would expect those customers to stay in the queue given the long-term sort of demand dynamics around that -- those particular products.

所以我認為從交付週期的角度來看，某些產品的情況非常糟糕。我們的某些產品是高階技術賦能產品，例如寬頻等離子偵測、我們的光柵偵測工具、Voyager雷射掃描系統和SP7 Surfscan產品。這些產品的交付週期仍然非常長。我認為這還需要一些時間，因為我們依賴增量產能的上線來處理部分積壓訂單。考慮到這些特定產品的長期需求動態，我預計這些客戶會繼續排隊等待。

But as it relates to some of our more capacity-centric products, I would expect some normalization as we move into '23. I think certainly, we're still constrained today in a lot of areas, and I would expect that we'll see that continue for a little while. But I think as we move through '23, we'll get up with a little bit more flexibility and more normalization on certain more capacity-centric product.

但由於這與我們一些更注重產能的產品有關，我預計隨著2023年，這些產品會逐漸恢復正常。當然，我們目前在許多領域仍然受到限制，而且我預計這種情況還會持續一段時間。但我認為，隨著2023年的到來，我們會在某些更注重產能的產品上獲得更大的靈活性和更標準化。

Very, very helpful. As a quick follow-up, I think you talked about $100 million of gross risk related to the China impact for December. And, I guess -- what does the net number look like there? I mean should we just be pulling out kind of $10 million to $15 million from service to reflect that and that you're perhaps repurposing the remaining tools so the net effect is much less? Or how should we think about that?

非常非常有幫助。快速跟進一下，我記得您提到了12月份與中國市場影響相關的總風險為1億美元。我想問一下，淨風險是多少？我的意思是，我們是否應該從服務中抽出1000萬到1500萬美元來反映這一影響，而您是否正在重新利用剩餘的工具，這樣淨影響就會小得多？或者我們應該如何考慮這個問題？

Yes, I think, the easiest way to think about it approximately -- without the new regulations, our guidance would have been approximately $100 million higher, right? I think the mix that I talked about earlier in terms of service versus system is about the same in this quarter versus the longer term. And the ability to reallocate those systems in the short run a little bit harder. So I think that as we move into next year, we'll -- I think we'll be able to reallocate more, including some of what we expected here. But, I think, in the shorter run, much harder for us to do. So I think the easiest way to think about it is the way I described it.

是的，我認為，最簡單的大概思路是──如果沒有新規，我們的預期應該會高出約1億美元，對吧？我認為我之前提到的服務與系統的組合，在本季和長期來看大致相同。短期內重新分配這些系統的能力會稍微困難一些。所以我認為，隨著明年的到來，我們將能夠重新分配更多資金，包括一些我們預期的資金。但我認為，短期內，我們做到這一點會困難得多。所以，我認為最簡單的想法就是我之前描述的方式。

We'll take our next question from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們將回答美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya 提出的下一個問題。

Just one more on China. Can you help us put this $600 million to $900 million in context with what you're currently doing. In the last 12 months, China sales were about $2.8 billion. Obviously, it's both domestic and multi. So is this $600 million to 900 million derisk enough? And how much is left and what is left once the $600 million to $900 million goes out of your addressable opportunity next year?

關於中國，我再問一個問題。您能否將這6億到9億美元的業務與您目前的業務連結起來？過去12個月，中國市場的銷售額約為28億美元。顯然，這既包括國內業務，也包括跨國業務。那麼，這6億到9億美元的業務足以降低風險嗎？明年，這6億到9億美元的業務從您的潛在機會中消失後，還剩下多少？

Yes. It's -- I think it's derisked. We try to provide a range to give you some perspective. Certainly, there's some forecast but it's part of that. But as we looked at what we have in backlog and we looked at what we expect to book over the course of '23 for the affected customers, we were able to go tool by tool to come up with the range that I provided. And service is roughly 10% to 15% of that.

是的。我認為風險已經降低了。我們試圖提供一個範圍，以便您了解一些情況。當然，有一些預測，但這只是其中的一部分。但是，當我們查看了積壓訂單，並預計在2023年為受影響的客戶預訂訂單時，我們能夠逐一分析，最終得出我提供的範圍。其中，服務大約佔10%到15%。

We will see as we move forward. Again, we're at a very preliminary stage in terms of working through the regulations and also engaging with customers. There's the possibility that we're able to get some of that back as we move forward, but we'll have to see how that plays out.

我們會隨著進展而拭目以待。再次強調，我們在製定法規和與客戶溝通方面仍處於非常初步的階段。隨著我們推進，我們有可能會收回部分損失，但最終結果如何，我們還要拭目以待。

As I said in the prepared remarks, it is tied to the legacy parts of our business, which are really unaffected by the new regulations. Most of what was considered 14-nanometer and below was already derisked from our plans because we were dealing with similar guidance back in the June quarter. And so what -- the biggest part of the change was the restrictions on the memory business. And so, I think, we feel pretty good about the range given where we are, the range we provided.

正如我在準備好的演講中所說，這與我們業務的傳統部分息息相關，這些部分實際上並未受到新法規的影響。由於我們在6月季度就曾使用過類似的指導方針，因此大部分14奈米及以下製程的產品已經從我們的計畫中去除了風險。那麼，變化最大的部分是對記憶體業務的限制。因此，考慮到我們目前的狀況，以及我們所提供的產品範圍，我認為我們對目前的產品範圍感到相當滿意。

And just as a follow-up, I had a longer-term more conceptual question. I know we are far away from '24. But as people look forward and especially this topic of WFE intensity, in the last 2 years, it grows about 15% to 16%. But before that, the industry used to be around the 13%, 14% level. Do you think as the industry recovers, we kind of stay at the 13%, 14%? Or do you think there's a case to be made that WFE intensity can start to recover back to the levels that we have seen in the last 2 years?

作為後續問題，我有一個更長期、更概念性的問題。我知道我們離2024年還很遠。但隨著人們展望未來，尤其是關於WFE強度的話題，在過去兩年裡，它成長了約15%到16%。但在此之前，該產業的成長率一直在13%到14%左右。您認為隨著產業復甦，我們的成長率會維持在13%到14%左右嗎？或者，您認為WFE強度有理由開始恢復到過去兩年的水平嗎？

Yes. I mean when we look at the longer term -- and it's a great question. And actually, that's the one that I think is the one that we've been spending a lot of time thinking about. The intensity is related to a couple of factors, obviously, but one of them is the challenge with the advanced technology nodes associated with it. And I think part of why it went back up was that scaling resumed, and scaling has resumed both in what we've seen in logic/foundry but also in memory.

是的。我的意思是，從長遠來看——這是一個很好的問題。實際上，我認為這也是我們花了很多時間思考的問題。顯然，強度與幾個因素有關，但其中之一是與之相關的先進技術節點的挑戰。我認為它回升的部分原因是微縮的恢復，無論是在邏輯/代工領域，還是在記憶體領域，微縮都已恢復。

So I do think it is going to trend slightly higher than it was, that it will be in '19 -- or '23, but it will go back up. Whether it goes all the way back up, it's not exactly clear, but I do think there's going to be pressure on that for people, everybody that's trying to move forward in technology. And the one thing that we know will happen during '23 even if there's a slowdown in capacity, there won't be a slowdown in technology advancement because everybody knows the way you get out of the downturn is by having newer products.

所以我確實認為，2019年或2023年，這個數字會比之前略高，但最終會回升。至於是否會一路回升，目前尚不清楚，但我確實認為，所有努力在技術上取得進步的人都會面臨壓力。我們知道，2023年，即使產能放緩，技術進步也不會放緩，因為大家都知道，擺脫經濟低迷的方法是推出更新的產品。

So I think it does trend back up. Whether it goes back all the way, we'll wait and see. But I think there's some improvement in capital intensity, and then we're on the strong belief that Process Control intensity will hold on to some of the gains that we've made and potentially build on them as we bring new products in.

所以我認為它確實有回升的趨勢。至於它是否會一路回升，我們拭目以待。但我認為資本密集度有所改善，而且我們堅信，過程控制密集度將保持我們已取得的一些成果，並有可能隨著新產品的推出而進一步提升。

Yes. Fundamental to our thesis was that we would see semiconductor revenue grow, and WFE would grow slightly faster. So you'd have a flat to up trend line in WFE intensity that would be faster than semiconductor revenue, predicated on the things that Rick talked about, but also that a lot of the dynamics in the industry that drove significant efficiency in WFE have been worked out of the system. And what I mean by that is things like wafer transitions or normal wafer transitions, the consolidation that we saw in the industry and so on because some of the bigger factors.

是的。我們論點的基礎是，我們會看到半導體收入成長，而晶圓製造效率 (WFE) 的成長速度會略快一些。因此，WFE 強度的成長趨勢線將呈現平緩或上升趨勢，其成長速度將快於半導體收入，這基於 Rick 談到的情況，但同時也考慮到，業界許多推動 WFE 效率顯著提升的動態因素已經從系統中消除。我指的是晶圓轉型或常規晶圓轉型，以及我們在產業中看到的整合等等，因為其中一些因素更為重要。

So our view is that there will be a lot of pressure for customers to try to keep it from growing, but that we were growing faster than it is. But most of what is talked about [different] customers is to keep it from growing faster, not to keep it from -- to drive it down. And so I think that there's -- we think the long-term assumption that's there is, I think, a fairly straight down the middle assumption in terms of how we think about long-term.

所以我們認為，客戶會面臨很大的壓力，試圖阻止我們的成長，但我們的成長速度比現在更快。但關於[不同]客戶，大多數人談論的都是阻止我們更快成長，而不是阻止我們——壓低我們的成長速度。所以我認為——我們認為，就我們的長期策略而言，現有的長期假設，我認為這是一個相當正中間的假設。

Yes. And there's one additional fact. When you look at the regionalization efforts and you think about new fabs around the world, they will tend to be slightly less efficient, which will drive up the efficiency, and those numbers are not really in anything in calendar '23.

是的。還有一個事實。當你審視區域化努力，並考慮世界各地的新晶圓廠時，它們的效率往往會略低一些，這會提高效率，而這些數字在2023年實際上並不存在。

We will take our next question from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們將回答摩根士丹利的喬摩爾 (Joe Moore) 的下一個問題。

Great. I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the export restrictions. You guys have talked about seeing the logic restrictions coming, I think, before, and I heard from anyone else. Where were you surprised on the logic side?

太好了。能否談談出口限制？我想你們之前已經討論過即將推出的邏輯限制，我也聽其他人說過。在邏輯方面，您覺得哪些方面讓您感到驚訝？

And then as a bigger picture question. The fact that this could affect the multinationals, but the multinationals immediately have a license for a year, do you think that gives any kind of pause to investing in Chinese fabs for the multinationals, who could find themselves with large assets that they're unable to upgrade if there's a change in policy? Just can you kind of assess how your customers are talking about all of this?

然後，從更宏觀的角度來說，這可能會影響跨國公司，但跨國公司會立即獲得為期一年的許可證。您認為這會暫停跨國公司在中國晶圓廠的投資嗎？如果政策發生變化，跨國公司可能會發現自己擁有的大量資產無法升級。您能否評估一下您的客戶是如何看待這一切的？

Yes, Joe, this is not an area where we're going to provide much insight. I think from the standpoint, I think what you meant is that we see the memory restrictions coming, right, because we talked about the logic ones. We were not surprised by the export controls that were implemented. And as we've mentioned, we've been working with the government officials as they've implemented those. So we're not surprised by that.

是的，喬，我們不會在這個領域提供太多見解。我認為從這個角度來看，你的意思是，我們預見了內存限制即將到來，對吧，因為我們討論的是邏輯限制。我們對實施的出口管制並不感到驚訝。正如我們所提到的，我們一直在與政府官員合作實施這些管制。所以我們對此並不感到驚訝。

When I talk to customers about their plans in China, I think, a lot of what they're doing is trying to figure out what are the implications of those extensions and what's the long-term viability. So I would say that it's a much better question to ask them than us. And ultimately, from our standpoint, frankly, it doesn't matter that much because if they choose not to invest there, what they're doing is investing to support demand and they'll move that investment to where they could do it. So that's kind of the way they're talking about it and what we're seeing. So I think from our standpoint, a lot of the -- now that this has happened, we're in a much better position to not speculate but support as we move forward.

當我與客戶談論他們在中國的計劃時，我認為他們所做的很多事情都在試圖弄清楚這些延期的影響以及長期可行性。所以我認為，這個問題問他們比問我們好得多。坦白說，從我們的角度來看，最終這並不那麼重要，因為如果他們選擇不在中國投資，他們所做的就是投資以支持需求，他們會將投資轉移到他們能夠實現的地方。這就是他們談論的方式，也是我們所看到的。所以我認為，從我們的角度來看，現在很多事情已經發生了，我們處於更有利的位置，不是去猜測，而是在前進的道路上提供支持。

We will take our next question from Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

我們將回答富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi 提出的下一個問題。

Last quarter, you had talked about productivity, your manufacturing staying relatively similar rates in the second half into the first half of next year. Is that still how you're thinking about? And maybe in that context, how do you think about that relative to gross margin?

上個季度，您談到了生產率，您的製造率在下半年到明年上半年保持相對穩定的水平。您現在還是這樣想的嗎？在這種情況下，您如何看待生產力與毛利率的關係？

Yes. Look, we -- as you see in the guidance, right, we have another step-up in output expectations out of the factories and are still driving to deliver into the first part of the year. I mean, certainly, there's been some customer churn that we've seen. Most of -- sort of adjustments to our outlook are more from a top-down perspective in terms of engagement with certain customers and also public information. I think we'll have to see how it plays through. But right now, we are driving the factories to continue to deliver against what our customers have asked us for.

是的。正如您在財報中看到的，我們對工廠的產量預期再次上調，並且仍在努力在今年上半年實現目標。當然，我們也看到了一些客戶流失。我們對預期的大部分調整是自上而下地進行，涉及與特定客戶的互動以及公開資訊。我認為我們必須觀察其效果如何。但目前，我們正在推動工廠繼續交付符合客戶要求的產品。

So I think we'll have to see how it plays out, but we start to see some rescheduling as we move into '23. I think those are still questions out there, given just the dynamics we're seeing on the macro front and what we're hearing from customers. But for now, I think our view on the first part is somewhat consistent with what I've said in the past. But I'll have more to say about half to half in the March guidance when we get there.

所以我認為我們得看看情況如何發展，但隨著2023年到來，我們開始看到一些重新安排。考慮到我們在宏觀層面看到的動態以及我們從客戶那裡聽到的信息，我認為這些仍然存在疑問。但就目前而言，我認為我們對第一部分的看法與我過去所說的基本一致。但當我們發布3月份的業績指引時，我會多談一半到一半的比例。

That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up. Maybe going back to the Investor Day. Now with the new China export restrictions in limiting some of the emerging China customers, how do you think about that maybe changing the long-term growth CAGR that you outlined at the Analyst Day in terms of WFE, your capital intensity? Does it change given those guys are maybe trying to ramp up on the technology front and so spending a little bit more than say some of the more mature customers?

這很有幫助。然後作為後續問題，或許可以回到投資者日。現在，由於新的中國出口限制限制了一些新興中國客戶，您認為這可能會改變您在分析師日上概述的WFE（資本密集度）的長期複合年增長率嗎？考慮到這些客戶可能正在努力在技術方面加大投入，因此支出會比一些更成熟的客戶略高一些，這種情況會改變嗎？

Well, it really goes back to the -- it's a good question, and we had contemplated rationalization of WFE in support of the overall industry. So that's really how I think about that is that, ultimately, there -- most of our customers end up having pretty strict investment forecast based on their belief of the capital intensity that they can afford, and you aggregate that up to the industry. And it kind of goes back to, well, what are your assumptions about semiconductor industry growth? What are your assumptions about capital intensity and what are your assumptions about Process Control.

嗯，這其實可以追溯到——這是一個好問題，我們曾考慮過合理化WFE，以支持整個產業。所以我的想法是，最終，我們的大多數客戶最終都會根據他們對自己能夠承受的資本強度的判斷，做出相當嚴格的投資預測，然後你再把這些預測匯總到整個行業。這又可以追溯到，你對半導體產業成長的假設是什麼？你對資本強度的假設是什麼？你對製程控制的假設是什麼？

Those are all in the band of what we considered when we looked at the investment that was going to happen there. So yes, it may be that there was some investment without the revenue to support it. But eventually, it was going to get rationalized. And then we go back to believe in the semiconductor industry growth. You believe in, overall, the question we answered earlier on capital intensity.

這些都屬於我們在考慮未來投資時所考慮的範疇。所以，確實可能有些投資沒有收入支撐。但最終，這些投資會變得合理化。然後我們又會重新相信半導體產業的成長。總的來說，你相信我們之前回答的關於資本密集度的問題。

So it's pretty much baked in the numbers. The reason we set it out for '26 instead of sooner was, as I mentioned before, we felt like there was going to be some kind of digestion period, which we're now facing into, so you kind of get there.

所以基本上已經成定局了。我們之所以把時間定在2026年而不是更早，是因為正如我之前提到的，我們覺得會有一個消化期，而我們現在正面臨這個階段，所以你差不多能理解了。

As I mentioned, there will be some investment that when you look at some of this regionalization that hasn't happened yet that would have been upside to that plan, and now I think you end up it kind of all blends together. So if you believe the semiconductor growth, I don't think capital intensity goes down, and we feel pretty good about Process Control and our share, that's supportive of the numbers that we laid out. In addition, Bren already talked about the services, which is another big part of it. So a very long way to say we feel like we're still on target for our '26 plan.

正如我所提到的，有些投資，如果你看看那些尚未實現的區域化舉措，你會發現它們原本會對該計畫有利，但現在我認為，最終這些投資會融合在一起。所以，如果你相信半導體的成長，我認為資本密集度不會下降，而且我們對製程管制和我們的市佔率感到相當滿意，這支持了我們列出的數據。此外，Bren 已經談到了服務業務，這是另一個重要組成部分。所以，我們仍然在朝著 2026 年計畫的目標前進，這還有很長的路要走。

Yes. You left out the EPC part, too. I think that's one where certainly we're feeling pressure this year and would expect to see more volatility in that part of the business given its proximity to consumers. But we still have an expectation that through SAM growth there that we will see similar growth rates there as well. So we talked about '21 to '26 overall. Rick said we modeled some of the -- some softness in between, but we still feel good about the underlying assumptions of what we laid out.

是的。您也忽略了EPC部分。我認為我們今年肯定會感受到壓力，而且由於該業務靠近消費者，因此預計波動性會更大。但我們仍然預計，透過SAM的成長，我們也將在那裡看到類似的成長率。所以我們討論了2021年到2026年的整體狀況。 Rick說，我們模擬了這段期間的一些疲軟因素，但我們仍然對我們制定的基本假設感到滿意。

We will take our next question from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我們將回答德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho 提出的下一個問題。

So I have 2 questions. The first one is the near term. If I look at your December quarter guidance, can you help us with the growth difference between SPC and EPC? And I know this EDC was down quite a bit quarter-over-quarter, maybe just seasonality in Q1.

所以我有兩個問題。第一個是短期的。如果我看一下你們12月季的業績指引，能否解釋一下SPC和EPC之間的成長差異？我知道EDC季減了不少，可能只是第一季的季節性因素。

And then related to that, if you can unpack the guidance for gross margin a little bit, it's down about 100 basis points at the midpoint, can you talk about the pluses and minuses and specifically related to revenue impact of the China regulation? Does that have a gross impact on gross margin? And I have a follow-up.

與此相關的是，如果您能稍微解釋一下毛利率的預期，中間值下降了約100個基點，您能否談談其利弊，特別是與中國法規對收入的影響？這對毛利率有整體影響嗎？我還有一個後續問題。

Oh, good question. So in terms of guidance for December, all the incremental revenue is coming just about all that's likely to come from our Semi Process Control business. I would think there'd be some impact from the new China regulations on service and the ability to grow service quarter-to-quarter. EPC was down. I think it will be up modestly quarter-to-quarter, but the bulk of the revenue increase will come from Semi PC.

哦，問得好。所以，就12月的業績指引而言，所有新增收入幾乎都可能來自我們的半製程管制業務。我認為中國的新規會對服務以及服務逐季成長的能力產生一些影響。 EPC業務有所下降。我認為它會逐季小幅成長，但大部分收入成長將來自半過程控制業務。

So I think in terms of gross margin in the September quarter, it was most of the upside, and I think we did better overall in Semi PC than we expected, and EPC was a little bit weaker on the margin than we thought going into the quarter. So we had a very strong mix of business. We had a significant sequential growth in patterning. Patterning includes reticle inspection, which tends to be a richer product line from a gross margin point of view.

因此，我認為就9月季度的毛利率而言，大部分都是上漲的。我認為我們在半導體光刻（Semi PC）方面的整體表現優於預期，而EPC的利潤率在本季度略低於我們的預期。因此，我們的業務組合非常強勁。我們的圖案化業務實現了顯著的環比成長。圖案化業務包括光罩檢測，從毛利率的角度來看，這往往是一條更豐富的產品線。

So that was the biggest impact that drove the upside. I think as we look at December, again, it will come back to mix dynamics in terms of how we model the business. We're kind of operating in line with the long-term range that I've talked about is somewhere between 63%, plus or minus 50 basis points or so, and we've been operating fairly consistent with that if you look at the broader picture of calendar '22. So we'll see how it plays out.

所以這是推動業績上漲的最大因素。我認為，當我們展望12月時，就我們的業務模式而言，情況將再次回到混合動態。我們的營運大致符合我之前提到的長期區間，即63%左右，上下浮動50個基點。從2022年的整體情況來看，我們的營運狀況一直與這個區間相當一致。所以我們拭目以待。

We've certainly been driving the business at a higher level in terms of output expectations. If you just go back to June, what was the consensus expectation for WFE both this year but also into '23? So that's certainly been a factor in terms of how we've been sizing our business in terms of our ability to support and to ship. And as we move into '23 and we see some of that, it could create a little bit of inventory exposure from an excess inventory point of view. So it could have some incremental reserve exposure there as well that we contemplated as we thought about December. So those are the puts and takes. I think the China regs in terms of impact on gross margin, it's more of a revenue impact. I don't think there's anything incremental from a gross margin point of view one way or the other.

我們確實一直在以更高的產量預期推動業務發展。回顧6月份，今年以及2023年，市場對WFE的普遍預期為何？這當然是我們根據支援和出貨能力調整業務規模的因素。隨著2023年我們逐漸看到一些情況，從庫存過剩的角度來看，這可能會造成一些庫存曝險。因此，這也可能會增加一些儲備敞口，這是我們在考慮12月產量時考慮到的。這就是利弊。我認為，就毛利率而言，中國法規對毛利率的影響，更多的是收入的影響。我認為，從毛利率的角度來看，無論如何都不會有任何增量。

That's helpful. Great. My follow-up question is back to a cycle question here. In prior down cycles, KLA usually outperformed initially because customers want improved yields, maybe continue to invest in R&D. But essentially, the downturn -- eventually, the downturn would catch up after several quarters, maybe just memory gets CapEx at first and then time foundry/logic comes later. Remind us of why you think this time could be different. And what kind of visibility into 2023 do you have right now just based on cancellation and rescheduling, those kind of things?

這很有幫助。太好了。我的後續問題又回到了週期問題。在先前的下行週期中，KLA 通常會在初期表現優異，因為客戶希望提高良率，或許還會繼續投資研發。但本質上，經濟低迷最終會在幾個季度後趕上來，可能一開始只是內存需要資本支出，然後是代工/邏輯晶片。請您提醒我們，為什麼您認為這次可能會有所不同？目前，僅基於取消和重新安排之類的因素，您對 2023 年的情況有何預測？

So we haven't had any cancellations. And there has -- the rescheduling that there's been, I'll call it, churn in our backlog management, but backlog grew quarter-to-quarter. I would expect that we'll see more cancellations as we move into '23. But what we said in terms of guidance of the industry down approximately 20% or so and given our expectations around the mix of business and so on and the history that we would expect KLA to perform well in that environment from a share of WFE point of view.

所以我們沒有收到任何訂單取消。我們積壓訂單管理中確實出現了一些重新安排的情況，我稱之為流失，但積壓訂單逐季成長。我預計，隨著2023年的到來，我們會看到更多訂單取消。但我們之前給出的行業指引是下降約20%，考慮到我們對業務組合等的預期以及歷史經驗，我們預計KLA在這種環境下，從WFE的份額來看，會表現良好。

So I think to your other point, look, it depends on how long these soft periods last in terms of how customers ultimately adjust and then what are the demand drivers as they come out of it. But as I said before, we're much more levered to our customers' technology road maps than the increment of capacity. We're certainly doing much better in capacity investment than we used to do, particularly around some of the issues we talked about at Investor Day due to higher design starts and less reuse and so on.

所以，關於你的另一點，我認為這取決於這些疲軟期持續多久，取決於客戶最終如何調整，以及他們走出疲軟期後的需求驅動因素是什麼。但正如我之前所說，我們更關注客戶的技術路線圖，而不是產能的成長。我們在產能投資方面的表現肯定比過去好得多，尤其是在投資者日討論的一些問題上，由於設計啟動次數增加、復用率降低等等。

So those are all factors for us that are positive from a capacity point of view. But at the end of the day, the biggest part of KLA's business is exposed to development and ramping up production. So as long as technology road maps hold together, we feel pretty good about how we're positioned.

所以，從產能角度來看，這些因素對我們來說都是利多。但歸根結底，KLA 業務的最大部分在於開發和提高產量。因此，只要技術路線圖能夠順利推進，我們對目前的市場定位就相當滿意。

Yes. And let me add to that. I mean, at Investor Day, we talked more about our exposure, as Bren said, and the ability we have to scale when there's capacity. I think the other thing that's changed, particularly with EUV is we're actually more an enabling technology now. And before, we might have been more about yield management. And now with some of our products, particularly in BBP and in rapid, those are the tools that our customers have repeatedly said, "No matter what happens in this downturn, keep us on your list. We want those tools." So I think that we've broadened from being primarily a company associated with ramping yields to one of enabling technology, particularly around EUV and then in capacity.

是的。我再補充一點。我的意思是，正如Bren所說，在投資者日，我們更多地談論了我們的業務，以及我們在產能充足的情況下進行擴展的能力。我認為另一個變化，尤其是在EUV方面，我們現在實際上更像是一項賦能技術。之前，我們可能更注重收益管理。現在，我們的一些產品，尤其是BBP和快速產品，正是我們的客戶反覆強調的工具：「無論經濟低迷時期發生什麼，請將我們列入您的名單。我們需要這些工具。」所以我認為，我們已經從一家主要致力於提高收益的公司，轉變為一家賦能技術的公司，尤其是在EUV和產能方面。

So I think we have better exposure, which is why we feel pretty good about how our products are holding up and the fact that we are getting very clear signals from customers that are saying, "We understand we're slowing overall, but please do not take us out of the list. We need those tools, and we need them as soon as we can get them."

所以我認為我們的曝光度更高了，這也是為什麼我們對我們的產品表現感到很滿意，而且我們也從客戶那裡得到了非常明確的信號，他們說：“我們知道我們整體上正在放緩，但請不要把我們從名單上除名。我們需要這些工具，而且我們需要盡快拿到它們。”

We will take our next question from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們將回答瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri 提出的下一個問題。

Bren, I also had a question on Process Control systems. And I ask because 2023 is going to be kind of a weird year because there's about $4 billion to $5 billion worth of deferred WFE just from 2 of your peers that should have been WFE this year but really is going to become WFE next year, and that sort of optically creates maybe like a little bit of a headwind for your WFE share. So I'm wondering if you can sort of help sift through that and maybe size what your PC systems would be for calendar '23. It seems like $6 billion is a pretty reasonable bogey, but I'm wondering if you like that number or not.

Bren，我還想問一個關於製程控制系統的問題。我之所以問這個問題，是因為2023年將會比較奇怪，因為光是你們的兩家同行就有價值約40億到50億美元的遞延WFE，它們本應在今年成為WFE，但實際上明年就會變成WFE，這在某種程度上可能會對你們的WFE份額造成一些阻力。所以，我想知道你是否能幫忙分析一下，並估算一下你們在2023年PC系統方面的規模。 60億美元似乎是一個相當合理的數字，但我想知道你是否喜歡這個數字。

Tim, I don't want to guide '23. We're a little bit early on that. I think you're right that there is some of the deferred revenue dynamic that will maybe skew the numbers a bit. But I think also given the things that we just said about how we're positioned into '23 from a backlog point of view and from a technology point of view that we feel pretty comfortable with our share of WFE continuing.

提姆，我不想預測2023年的狀況。我們現在還為時過早。你說得對，一些遞延收入的動態可能會對數據產生一些影響。但我認為，考慮到我們剛才談到的從積壓訂單和技術角度對2023年的定位，我們對WFE的份額能夠持續保持相當有信心。

But also, I think, we feel very good about the actual market share within Process Control and the -- we think, some tailwinds there as well. So, I think, against the backdrop that you're talking about. If you're thinking WFE is somewhere in the $75 billion-ish range or so, the kinds of numbers are reasonable that you're mentioning. But I'll have the ability, I think, to provide a little bit more clarity around how we see that as we move into guidance for '23 in January.

但同時，我認為我們對過程控制領域的實際市場份額非常滿意，而且我們認為那裡也有一些有利因素。所以，我認為，考慮到您所說的背景。如果您認為WFE的規模在750億美元左右，那麼您提到的這些數字是合理的。但我認為，在1月我們發布2023年業績指引時，我將能更清楚地解釋我們對此的看法。

Cool. And then, Rick, I had one for you. There was a question earlier about WFE intensity. And if you take -- the China restrictions are taking like between $7 billion and $9 billion out of WFE for next year, maybe some of that gets replaced somewhere else. But you see all the wafers and all the yields. So would you agree that maybe domestic China WFE has sort of inflated WFE intensity to some degree over the past couple of years? And maybe it's fair to take like a 50% multiplayer? I mean I don't want a number, but just the idea that you should take some sort of a handicap toward the WFE is the dollars because the productivity of those dollars is not equivalent to dollars being spent beyond China. I'm just sort of wondering how you kind of think about that.

酷。然後，瑞克，我有個問題想問你。之前有一個關於WFE強度的問題。如果你考慮到——中國的限制措施將導致明年WFE損失70億到90億美元，其中一部分可能會被其他地方彌補。但你看到了所有的晶圓和產量。那麼，你是否同意，過去幾年裡，中國國內的WFE可能在某種程度上誇大了WFE強度？或許採取50%的多重參與者比例是公平的？我的意思是，我不想要一個數字，只是想說你應該對WFE採取某種限制，那就是美元，因為這些美元的生產力與在中國以外花費的美元不等。我只是有點想知道你是怎麼看待這個問題的。

Yes, Tim. No, I think that's true. I think that is absolutely the case that you have a situation where there was additional WFE. But it's interesting because that investment didn't really utilize EUV, so that wasn't particularly capital-intensive investment on a relative basis. So in fact, they were prevented from it. So I think over time, there is going to be more pressure on everybody that stays on the technology road maps to invest in technology that leverages, frankly, more to KLA, whether it's in logic, foundry or memory.

是的，提姆。不，我認為是這樣。我認為絕對存在額外WFE的情況。但有趣的是，這項投資實際上並沒有使用EUV，所以相對而言，這並不是一項特別資本密集的投資。所以事實上，他們被阻止了。所以我認為，隨著時間的推移，所有堅持技術路線圖的公司都將面臨更大的壓力，需要投資那些坦白說對KLA更有利的技術，無論是在邏輯、代工還是記憶體方面。

And so that's why, as we said, we modeled that. It is true that will come out, but it will over time be replaced. So I think, sure, the capital intensity was probably running a bit hot because of that, but that's going to get reset. So I don't think we go back into where we were, but I don't think we go all the way down either. I think it's somewhere in between, and that's how we modeled our 2026 plan.

正如我們所說，這就是我們建模的原因。誠然，這種情況最終會消失，但隨著時間的推移，它會被取代。所以我認為，當然，資本密集度可能因此而略微過高，但這將會被重置。所以我認為我們不會回到之前的水平，但也不會完全下降。我認為它會介於兩者之間，這就是我們建模2026年計畫的方式。

Yes, I would say it's more efficient today than it was in 2016 when we saw all this escalation in investment. So there is a little bit more maturation there than what we have, let's say, 5, 6 years ago. But generally, I would also agree. I think you also have to remember that there's investment that's happening in infrastructure to support legacy domestic consumption, right? And so you have wafer investment that's happening. You have some reticle investment that's happening as well. So I think when you look at that, there is that question about how much of that is real demand versus more strategic investment. And so I think that that's -- there is some adjustment factor there, but it's probably a little bit different than what you might have thought 5 years ago or so.

是的，我認為現在比2016年投資激增的時候更有效率。所以，現在比五、六年前更成熟一些。但總的來說，我同意這個觀點。我想你也必須記住，為了支持傳統的國內消費，基礎設施方面正在進行投資，對吧？所以，現在正在進行晶圓方面的投資。也正在進行光罩方面的投資。所以，我認為，當你審視這些投資時，你會思考一個問題：其中有多少是實際需求，有多少是更具策略性的投資。所以，我認為這其中存在一些調整因素，但可能與你五年前左右的想法略有不同。

As you think about Process Control intensity, typically in legacy nodes, we tend to then do fairly well as facilities are starting up. But Process Control intensity in the trailing edge, unless they're there are big drivers of some major change, doesn't really -- isn't really as high as it is at the leading edge. So when you think about foundry, logic, Process Control intensity at the trailing edge, it's more like memory, maybe a little bit better than that in China, but it isn't like a leading-edge investment would provide. So it's a little bit different environment there from a KLA point of view.

說到製程控制強度，通常在傳統節點上，隨著設施的啟動，我們往往做得相當好。但後沿工藝的工藝控制強度，除非有重大變革的重大驅動因素，否則實際上並不像前沿工藝那麼高。所以，當你考慮到代工廠、邏輯裝置和後沿工藝的工藝控制強度時，它更像是記憶體，可能比中國的情況略好一些，但不像前沿工藝的投資所能提供的那樣。所以，從KLA的角度來看，那裡的環境略有不同。

We will take our next question from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答高盛的 Toshiya Hari 提出的下一個問題。

I had 2 questions as well. Bren, on the China impact, in calendar '23, which you sized at $600 million to $900 million, I think that was a gross number. So just curious, given the fungibility of your tools and based on your current pipeline, roughly what percentage of that do you think you can repurpose and ship to other customers, at least on the systems side?

我也有兩個問題。 Bren，關於2023年中國市場的影響，你估計是6億到9億美元，我認為這是一個大概的數字。所以，我只是好奇，考慮到你的工具的可互換性，以及你目前的產品線，你認為其中大約有多少比例可以重新利用並交付給其他客戶，至少在系統方面是這樣？

Yes. I think it's too early to tell, Toshiya. What we try to do, and I purposely use those words that was gross. I think as we move forward, there are certain products that we will be able to repurpose fairly easily, and there are other ones that might be a little bit more difficult depending that they're back to the sort of capacity versus technology discussion we had earlier. So I'll have a clearer picture on how to think about that.

是的。 Toshiya，我覺得現在下結論還太早。我們嘗試做什麼，我故意用了那些不太好聽的字。我認為隨著我們不斷推進，有些產品可以很容易地重新利用，而有些產品可能會稍微困難一些，這取決於它們又回到了我們之前討論的那種容量與技術的關係。所以我會更清楚地了解該如何思考這個問題。

But the way I thought about it was, as I said earlier, I looked at the backlog and I looked at our forecast in terms of expectation and timing of revenue and added up what we -- absent the new regulations, what -- how much revenue we would have, and that drove the range that I provided.

但正如我之前所說，我是這樣想的，我查看了積壓訂單，並查看了我們對收入預期和時間的預測，併計算出如果沒有新規定，我們將有多少收入，這就決定了我提供的範圍。

And then we'll have to see also, as I said earlier, how as we progress here moving forward, what is truly kind of out and what is in as we start to work our way through and engage with customers and get a clearer picture from the government as we go through. So I think that's the best way I can size it right now is that impact, and I would expect for more higher end products where lead times are extended that we'll be able to reallocate some of those tools.

然後，正如我之前所說，隨著我們逐步推進，並與客戶溝通，並從政府那裡獲得更清晰的了解，我們還必須觀察，哪些是真正的出路，哪些是可行的。所以我認為目前我能評估其影響的最佳方式就是這種影響。我預計，對於交貨期延長的高端產品，我們將能夠重新分配其中一些工具。

Got it. That's helpful. And then as my follow-up, I wanted to get your thoughts on OpEx into calendar '23. I think it's fair to say that the WFE outlook has deteriorated over the past 3 months or so given memory weakness and the export controls, your business is going to be a lot more resilient than the overall market. But just given how the trajectory has potentially changed from a revenue perspective, I'm sure you're sort of thinking through and revisiting your footprint into '23. How should we think about OpEx? I think you talked about on a quarterly basis, things moderating into Q1. But for the full year, if you can provide some context, that would be helpful.

明白了，這很有幫助。接下來，我想問您對2023年營運支出（OpEx）的看法。我認為，考慮到記憶體市場疲軟和出口管制，WFE（世界工廠聯盟）的前景在過去三個月左右有所惡化，您的業務將比整體市場更具韌性。但考慮到營收成長軌跡可能已經發生的變化，我相信您正在仔細思考並重新審視2023年的業務發展。我們該如何看待營運支出？您之前曾提到按季度計算，情況會在第一季有所緩和。但對於全年而言，如果您能提供一些背景信息，那將會很有幫助。

Yes, I think, the easiest way to think about it right now is the flattening out. So as we get a clearer picture on what the revenue profile looks like for '23, we'll -- I'll have a better level of sort of quarter-to-quarter guidance. We've invested a lot over the last couple of years to support the revenue growth and to continue to invest in driving innovation and differentiation, which is so critical to KLA's go-to-market, and so we've made those investments. We want to get returns on those investments.

是的，我認為現在最簡單的思考方式就是趨於平緩。因此，當我們對2023年的收入狀況有了更清晰的了解後，我們——我會有一個更準確的季度指引。過去幾年，我們投入了大量資金來支持收入成長，並繼續投資於推動創新和差異化，這對KLA的行銷至關重要，所以我們進行了這些投資。我們希望從這些投資中獲得回報。

So we'll be careful and judicious about how we think about it. Obviously, the reality of the business environment is a factor, but also ensuring that we have the right products to meet our customers' road map requirements over the next few years is really critical. And I think the history at KLA has shown that in a soft period that our ability to invest and deliver what our customers need when they need it. It's been fundamental to our ability to go-to-market to have the portfolio and to share the value that we deliver. So it will be a balancing act across all of those kinds of dynamics. But I think from a modeling point of view, you've got a model that it flattens out.

因此，我們會謹慎審慎地考慮這個問題。顯然，現實的商業環境是一個因素，但確保我們擁有合適的產品，能夠滿足未來幾年客戶路線圖的要求也至關重要。我認為，KLA 的歷史表明，在疲軟時期，我們有能力投資並在客戶需要時提供他們所需的產品。擁有產品組合併分享我們提供的價值，對於我們進入市場的能力至關重要。因此，這將是一個在所有這些動態之間取得平衡的過程。但我認為，從建模的角度來看，你已經得到了一個趨於平緩的模型。

There's also inflation pressures, right? We'll have a merit cycle, so we'll have to work through all of that as well, but my expectation right now is that you'll -- we're tapping the breaks and you'll see it flatten out.

還有通膨壓力，對吧？我們會有一個績效週期，所以我們也必須克服所有這些壓力。但我現在的預期是，我們正在踩剎車，你會看到它逐漸趨於平穩。

And we do have time for one final question. We will take our final question from Atif Malik with Citi.

我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。最後一個問題由花旗銀行的 Atif Malik 提出。

First, I just want to clarify if you and your peers cannot ship the spare parts and services to these projects, will these projects kind of like halt sometime next year as they run out of spare parts? And then I have a follow-up.

首先，我想澄清一下，如果您和您的同事無法為這些項目提供備件和服務，這些項目是否會因為備件耗盡而於明年某個時候停工？然後我還有一個後續問題。

The ability to support the tools, I can't speak for the peers. But I can just say for KLA systems, given the nature of our tools and the maintenance that's required to support them and the supply chain, which is fairly custom, that the ability to do maintenance is important to keeping the tools up and performing as designed and expected. So without service, it becomes very hard to utilize the tools that we've shipped.

至於工具支援能力，我無法代表同行。但就 KLA 系統而言，考慮到我們工具的性質、支援工具所需的維護以及相當客製化的供應鏈，維護能力對於確保工具正常運作並達到預期效能至關重要。因此，如果沒有服務，我們出貨的工具就很難充分利用。

Great. And then the team talked about very nice bookings momentum on auto-related products on advanced packaging and silicon carbide at the Investor Day. Can you update us what you're seeing in the auto market that end market seems to be holding quite well right now and into next year?

太好了。然後團隊在投資者日上談到了先進封裝和碳化矽汽車相關產品的訂單勢頭非常好。能否介紹一下您在汽車市場看到的情況？目前以及明年，終端市場似乎都保持著良好的勢頭。

Yes. I think in automotive, it's been a nice driver for our business, and we've seen meaningful growth really across not just what's gone on in our EPC group but also -- and you have exposure in a few different places, right? We have exposure in our SPTS business, which is for process in power and semiconductors but also in our Semi PC business. And so we have a few offerings that we tailored to support that market, and so we've seen nice growth there. And we're encouraged by the rising semiconductor content, just basic content in cars, let alone EUV enhanced content and assisted capabilities moving forward.

是的。我認為汽車產業一直是我們業務的良好驅動力，我們看到了顯著的成長，這不僅體現在我們的EPC集團，也體現在幾個不同領域，對吧？我們的SPTS業務，即電力和半導體工藝，以及我們的Semi PC業務。因此，我們針對該市場定制了一些產品，並且在那裡看到了良好的成長。我們對半導體應用的成長感到鼓舞，這僅僅是汽車中的基礎應用，更不用說EUV增強應用和輔助功能的發展了。

So I don't have the exact number in terms of what it is. I want to say it's about $700 million or so this year in '22 in terms of what we'll call kind of auto exposure from a revenue point of view, and we would expect to see that grow over time. And we're engaging at levels with our customers that are driving a different way of thinking about Process Control, given the reliability requirements in auto and the margin structure, the cost of defectivity, the cost of recall and so on.

所以我沒有確切的數字。我想說，從收入的角度來看，今年（2022年）的汽車業務投入大約在7億美元左右，而且我們預計這個數字會隨著時間的推移而增長。考慮到汽車產業的可靠性要求、利潤結構、缺陷成本、召回成本等等，我們正在與客戶進行多層次的合作，推動對製程控制的不同思考方式。

All right. We thank you and we appreciate. Yes. Thanks so much for the questions, everyone. I appreciate your time on a busy earnings week, and we will be in touch. I'll turn the call back over to the operator to conclude.

好的。謝謝大家，我們非常感激。是的。非常感謝大家的提問。感謝您在繁忙的財報週中抽出時間，我們會保持聯繫。我會把電話轉回給接線生，結束通話。

This concludes the KLA Corporation September Quarter 2022 Earnings Call and Webcast. Please disconnect your line at this time. Have a wonderful day.

KLA Corporation 2022 年 9 月季度收益電話會議及網路直播到此結束。請您暫時斷開連線。祝您擁有美好的一天。