卡夫亨氏 (KHC) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

卡夫亨氏提高了對 EBITDA 和收益的指引,併計劃將營銷和研發投資增加 1 億美元至 1.5 億美元。儘管趨勢可能比原計劃慢,但該公司仍保持其全年展望,並正在適應零售渠道的轉變。

McCormick & Company 看到了新興市場的顯著增長,並投資 1.5 億美元用於新興市場的研發技術、銷售人員和上市擴張。

卡夫亨氏推出了幾款新產品,預計供應鏈問題和營收業績將有所改善。

總的來說,兩家公司都在正確的軌道上,並希望繼續以正確的方式為業務提供服務。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Kraft Heinz Company First Quarter Results. (Operator Instructions) And be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Anne-Marie Megela, Head of Global Investor Relations. The floor is yours.

    美好的一天,謝謝你的支持。歡迎閱讀卡夫亨氏公司第一季度業績。 (操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議交給全球投資者關係主管 Anne-Marie Megela。地板是你的。

  • Anne-Marie Megela - VP & Global Head of IR

    Anne-Marie Megela - VP & Global Head of IR

  • Thank you, and hello, everyone, and welcome to our Q&A session for our first quarter 2023 business update. During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations for the future, including related to our business plans and expectations, strategy, efforts and investments and related timing and expected impacts.

    謝謝大家,大家好,歡迎來到我們的 2023 年第一季度業務更新問答環節。在今天的電話會議中,我們可能會就我們對未來的預期做出前瞻性陳述,包括與我們的業務計劃和預期、戰略、努力和投資以及相關的時間安排和預期影響相關的陳述。

  • These statements are based on how we see things today, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please see the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in today's earnings release, which accompanies this call as well as our most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more information regarding these risks and uncertainties. Additionally, we may refer to non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude certain items from our financial results reported in accordance with GAAP.

    這些陳述基於我們今天的看法,實際結果可能因風險和不確定性而存在重大差異。請參閱本次電話會議隨附的今天的收益發布中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素,以及我們最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件,以了解有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息。此外,我們可能會參考非 GAAP 財務措施,這些措施將某些項目排除在我們根據 GAAP 報告的財務業績之外。

  • Please refer to today's earnings release and the non-GAAP information available on our website at ir.kraftheinzcompany.com, under News and Events for a discussion of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP financial measures.

    請參閱我們網站 ir.kraftheinzcompany.com 上今天的收益發布和非 GAAP 信息,在新聞和事件下,討論我們的非 GAAP 財務措施以及與可比的 GAAP 財務措施的調節。

  • Before we begin, I'm going to hand it over to our CEO, Miguel Patricio, for some brief opening comments.

    在我們開始之前,我將把它交給我們的首席執行官 Miguel Patricio,聽取一些簡短的開場白。

  • Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

    Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

  • Thank you, Anne-Marie, and thank you, everyone, joining us today. We are proud, proud and confident. We are so confident that we are raising our guidance on EBITDA and earnings. We are so confident that we are increasing our investments in marketing and in R&D by $100 million to $150 million versus budget, which represents a solid double-digit growth versus previous year. These results are not a coincidence. They are because of our confidence.

    謝謝你,Anne-Marie,也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們自豪、驕傲、自信。我們非常有信心提高對 EBITDA 和收益的指導。我們非常有信心,我們將在營銷和研發方面的投資比預算增加 1 億至 1.5 億美元,這與去年相比實現了兩位數的穩健增長。這些結果並非巧合。他們是因為我們的信心。

  • We have been consistently saying that we'll grow through emerging markets, and we grew 23% this quarter, we'll grow throughput service globally, and we grew about 29% this quarter, and we'll grow through our priority growth platforms in U.S., Easy Meals and Taste Elevation where we had double-digit growth. The rest of the portfolio has to free up resources to invest in our strategy. These results are possible not only because of our strategy, but because of everything that is behind our strategy.

    我們一直說我們將通過新興市場實現增長,本季度我們增長了 23%,我們將在全球範圍內增加吞吐量服務,本季度我們增長了約 29%,我們將通過我們的優先增長平台在美國、Easy Meals 和 Taste Elevation,我們實現了兩位數的增長。投資組合的其餘部分必須騰出資源來投資於我們的戰略。這些結果是可能的,不僅因為我們的戰略,而且因為我們戰略背後的一切。

  • Let me start with people. Today, we have a great team and very engaged team. Speed. Well, agility is a big word for us. And the products that we have in place are transforming the company. In innovation, in supply, manufacturing, procurement, in sales, in logistics. And 2 good examples of that is innovation, where we have now a much stronger pipeline for the future. And we reduced the time of innovating from 2 years to a couple of months, or in supply that through the pods plus the partnership with Microsoft and the usage of artificial intelligence, we are improving our planning, our service levels, reducing waste, reducing times. We are in a very different place today.

    讓我從人開始。今天,我們擁有一支優秀的團隊和非常敬業的團隊。速度。好吧,敏捷對我們來說是一個大詞。我們現有的產品正在改變公司。在創新、供應、製造、採購、銷售和物流方面。 2 個很好的例子就是創新,我們現在擁有更強大的未來管道。我們將創新時間從 2 年減少到幾個月,或者說通過 pod 加上與 Microsoft 的合作以及人工智能的使用,我們正在改進我們的計劃、我們的服務水平、減少浪費、減少時間.我們今天處在一個非常不同的地方。

  • And finally, efficiencies. When we announced 3 years ago, a $2 billion in 5 years of gross savings, we -- there were a lot of people that were skeptical that represented $400 million per year. We not only delivered this number in 3 years in a row, but we are now increasing this bar to $500 million a year. With that, I have here with me today, Andre, our CFO; Carlos Abrams-Rivera, our Zone President for North America; and Rafael, our Zone President for International that are joining me. Please, we are ready for the Q&A.

    最後,效率。當我們 3 年前宣布 5 年總儲蓄 20 億美元時,我們 - 有很多人對每年 4 億美元表示懷疑。我們不僅連續 3 年實現了這一數字,而且現在我們將這一標準提高到每年 5 億美元。因此,我們的首席財務官安德烈今天和我在一起。 Carlos Abrams-Rivera,我們的北美區總裁;和拉斐爾,我們的國際區主席也加入了我的行列。拜託,我們已準備好進行問答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

  • Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

    Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

  • I just wanted to ask, I guess, 2 questions related to the U.S. One is, I think as we kind of strip out the Foodservice piece and look at what's underneath, it looks like there's a bit of a dismatch -- or mismatch, I should say, between kind of what we were seeing in the Nielsen data and what would have been reported underlying. So just trying to understand if there was anything there relative to timing of shipments or promotions that might have affected the cadence?

    我想我只是想問 2 個與美國有關的問題。一個是,我認為當我們剝離 Foodservice 部分並查看下面的內容時,它看起來有點不匹配 - 或者不匹配,我應該說,介於我們在 Nielsen 數據中看到的內容和潛在報告的內容之間。所以只是想了解是否有任何與可能影響節奏的發貨或促銷時間有關的事情?

  • And then second, if you can just talk a little bit about in the U.S. specifically, kind of how you're seeing the promotional activity or the promotional environment as we kind of head into some of the big summer holidays? Is it intensified? Is it kind of in line with your expectations. Just kind of how you're seeing the summer holiday setup, please.

    其次,如果你能具體談談在美國的情況,在我們進入一些重要的暑假時,你是如何看待促銷活動或促銷環境的?是不是變本加厲了?是不是有點符合你的預期。拜託,就像您看到的暑假設置一樣。

  • Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

    Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

  • Andre, please.

    安德烈,請。

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Okay. Thanks for the question. Look, when you look at the U.S. performance, I don't think there is nothing out of the normal happening in the quarter. The inventory load was immaterial given we're already ended at the end of Q4, as I said before, so it's really a function of the sell-out and the Foodservice, which performed very well in the quarter in the U.S. zone. So maybe people underappreciated a little bit of impact of that.

    好的。謝謝你的問題。看,當你看美國的表現時,我認為本季度沒有發生任何異常情況。正如我之前所說,考慮到我們已經在第四季度末結束,庫存負荷並不重要,所以這實際上是售罄和餐飲服務的一個函數,該季度在美國地區表現非常好。所以也許人們低估了它的一點影響。

  • I believe it has something to do also the fact that last year, with Omicron and things, everything was shut down. So that impacted the sellout in retail across -- in the industry at the beginning of the quarter, but also helped a lot of Foodservice to have a very strong performance.

    我相信這也與去年 Omicron 和其他東西有關,一切都被關閉了。因此,這影響了本季度初整個行業的零售業銷售情況,但也幫助許多餐飲服務部門取得了非常強勁的表現。

  • When it comes to promotions. As we have stated along -- we expect an increasing promotional year to go, that was at the -- in the guidance through joint business plan from the beginning, so nothing changing there from that regard. Obviously, not prudent way and always emphasizing that well for 2019 levels. And you see a max, how well we are doing in terms of continuing to improve our ROI with the tools that we have in place. And so not (inaudible) give some color -- to pass over to Carlos to give some color on the promotional environment.

    說到促銷。正如我們一直以來所說的那樣——我們預計從一開始就通過聯合商業計劃進行指導,我們預計促銷年將會增加,所以從這方面來看沒有任何改變。顯然,這不是謹慎的方式,並且總是強調 2019 年的水平。你會看到一個最大值,我們在使用現有工具繼續提高投資回報率方面做得如何。所以不(聽不清)給一些顏色 - 傳遞給卡洛斯來為促銷環境提供一些顏色。

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - Executive VP & President of North America

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - Executive VP & President of North America

  • The one thing I guess I would add, Bryan, to what Andrew just said is, as you mentioned, the ROI has continued to improve. And -- but let me give you a little more color as to what's behind that. We have spoken about the agile scale and how that has reengineered kind of Kraft Heinz. And part of that is us creating ownable agile revenue management tools that actually allows us to improve the returns of our promotions. So like, for example, we have a trade management system that we created in-house, and it gives us real-time access to essentially over 10,000 promotional events. And then what we do is we actually create digital tools that leverage that large amount of data to provide insights and recommendations in a very simple way.

    布萊恩,我想我要補充的一件事是安德魯剛才所說的,正如你提到的,投資回報率一直在提高。而且 - 但是讓我給你更多關於背後的顏色。我們已經談到了敏捷規模以及它如何重新設計卡夫亨氏。其中一部分是我們創建了可擁有的敏捷收入管理工具,這些工具實際上使我們能夠提高促銷的回報。例如,我們有一個內部創建的貿易管理系統,它使我們能夠實時訪問超過 10,000 個促銷活動。然後我們所做的是我們實際上創建了數字工具,利用大量數據以非常簡單的方式提供見解和建議。

  • Now those solutions then help us to make sure that allows us to figure out what is the right depth of discount, what is the right time of the year and what are the right promotional touches we have been doing. So if you look at our Q1 numbers, we saw about a 10-point improvement in ROI in this particular quarter versus what we saw a year ago. And it's about 15 points if you compare that to 2019 of Q1. So again, our ownable tools continue to help us make sure that we are driving that investment. So as we go forward, our continued focus is make sure that we invest in the business that we are focused on the renovation of our business and marketing driving a stronger quality with those event-based activities that really have the high ROIs. And Rafa, I don't know if anything you want to comment on what you're seeing in international promotions?

    現在,這些解決方案幫助我們確定什麼是正確的折扣深度、什麼是一年中的正確時間以及我們一直在做的正確促銷活動。因此,如果您查看我們第一季度的數據,我們會發現與一年前相比,這個特定季度的投資回報率提高了大約 10 個百分點。如果將其與第一季度的 2019 年進行比較,大約是 15 個百分點。因此,我們擁有的工具再次幫助我們確保我們正在推動這項投資。因此,在我們前進的過程中,我們繼續關注的是確保我們投資於我們專注於業務和營銷革新的業務,通過那些真正具有高投資回報率的基於事件的活動來推動更高的質量。 Rafa,我不知道你是否想對你在國際促銷活動中看到的內容髮表評論?

  • Rafael de Oliveira - Executive VP & Zone President of International Markets

    Rafael de Oliveira - Executive VP & Zone President of International Markets

  • It's not very different than what you described Carlos, I think, and what Andre mentioned. You might see a bit of an increase. We will see a bit of an increase in some marketing and promotional activity through the year to go. But nothing significant as compared -- not included in our guidance.

    我認為,這與您描述的 Carlos 和 Andre 提到的沒有太大區別。你可能會看到一點點增加。在接下來的一年裡,我們將看到一些營銷和促銷活動有所增加。但相比之下沒有什麼重要的——不包括在我們的指導中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) One moment for the next -- and it comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

    (操作員說明)一個時刻為下一個時刻——它來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾(Andrew Lazar)。

  • Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I think you outperformed expectations, obviously, in the first quarter on organic sales growth and maintained the full year outlook, I guess, potentially implying slower go-forward trends maybe than originally planned for. Is there something you're seeing in the market that necessitates this adjustment? Or is this more a function of sort of conservatism? And I appreciate the full year outlook is already above your sort of long-term algorithm?

    我認為你顯然在第一季度的有機銷售增長超出了預期,並保持了全年展望,我猜這可能意味著前進趨勢可能比最初計劃的要慢。您在市場上看到有什麼東西需要進行這種調整嗎?或者這更像是一種保守主義的功能?我很欣賞全年前景已經高於您的長期算法?

  • Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

    Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

  • Andre, maybe you want to answer that question.

    安德烈,也許你想回答這個問題。

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Sure. So there is nothing that changed expectation. We are holding the guidance in top line. And if I look at versus what I believe market was expecting, we over delivered quite a lot in the international zone, which I think people still they don't fully appreciate the impact of emerging markets growth in our portfolio and the Foodservice portion of the international market on portfolio as well. They've been performing extremely well, as Miguel indicated and they continue to do so, momentum is very solid. When it comes to the U.S., nothing changes in our internal expectations. We just see that at this moment is good to be prudent. It isn't macroeconomic uncertainties about interest rates and our consumers might respond on that, but nothing special.

    當然。所以沒有什麼改變了期望。我們將指導放在首位。如果我看看與我認為市場預期的情況相比,我們在國際區域交付了很多,我認為人們仍然沒有完全理解新興市場增長對我們投資組合和餐飲服務部分的影響投資組合的國際市場也是如此。正如米格爾指出的那樣,他們一直表現得非常好,而且他們會繼續這樣做,勢頭非常強勁。談到美國,我們的內部預期沒有任何變化。我們只是看到,在這個時候謹慎行事是件好事。這不是關於利率的宏觀經濟不確定性,我們的消費者可能會對此做出反應,但沒什麼特別的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • One moment for our next question, please. And it comes from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

    請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。它來自摩根大通的 Ken Goldman 系列。

  • Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

    Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

  • There's been some anecdotal evidence that consumers are beginning to trade down in terms of where they're doing their grocery shopping, either going from premium channel to more mainstream or mainstream to discount. I'm curious if this is something you're starting to see as well, even if it's just on the margin. And if so, is it in any way, I guess, informing your decisions about product mix, new products, things like that?

    有一些軼事證據表明,消費者開始在購買雜貨店的地方進行交易,要么從優質渠道轉向更主流,要么從主流轉向折扣。我很好奇這是否也是您開始看到的東西,即使它只是邊緣。如果是這樣,我猜它是否以任何方式告知您有關產品組合、新產品等的決策?

  • Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

    Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

  • Maybe Andre and Carlos can comment.

    也許Andre 和Carlos 可以發表意見。

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • So as you have seen since last year, the channel migration has started. So we don't see like a normal accelerated trend over that. We have seen consistently now for several months, there's the dollar channel and the mass merchandising gaining ground consistently. And as this is not a new phenomenon, we have been prepared for that for a while. So I'll pass to Carlos to talk about the panel activities we are doing in those channels, but we don't see anything abnormal happening. And it's expected.

    因此,正如您從去年以來看到的那樣,渠道遷移已經開始。因此,我們看不到正常的加速趨勢。幾個月來,我們一直看到,美元渠道和大眾商品銷售不斷取得進展。由於這不是一個新現象,我們已經為此做好了一段時間的準備。所以我將轉交給卡洛斯,談談我們在這些渠道中進行的小組活動,但我們沒有看到任何異常情況發生。這是意料之中的。

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - Executive VP & President of North America

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - Executive VP & President of North America

  • Yes, what I would add in terms of color, I guess, first in retail, I mean there have been some channel shifting which we expected. And for the lower-income consumers, this means kind of moving to more value-focused retailers or into dollar channel. And as Andre said, we anticipated this.

    是的,我想我會在顏色方面添加什麼,首先是在零售方面,我的意思是我們預期會有一些渠道轉移。對於低收入消費者來說,這意味著轉向更注重價值的零售商或進入美元渠道。正如安德烈所說,我們預料到了這一點。

  • Now for high-income consumer, that also means thinking about what are the places that it can go in instead of maybe the specialty retailers to more traditional grocery and club. And for us, what we're looking to do is actually making sure that we have the right solutions for those that are respectively channels. So whether that is more club size packaging and brands like Mac & Cheese and Jell-O and adding more dollar SKUs, so that consumers who are stretched are actually able to stay within the category.

    現在對於高收入消費者來說,這也意味著考慮它可以進入哪些地方,而不是專業零售商到更傳統的雜貨店和俱樂部。對於我們來說,我們要做的實際上是確保我們為那些分別是渠道的人提供正確的解決方案。因此,無論是更多的俱樂部尺寸包裝和 Mac & Cheese 和 Jell-O 等品牌,還是添加更多的美元 SKU,以便緊張的消費者實際上能夠留在該類別中。

  • And then as we talked earlier, being savvy about how we go about our promotional activities in certain categories so that we can, in fact, be there with consumers with the right overall kind of meal solution. So if you think about what a grilled cheese sandwich can do with Kraft Singles, what Kraft mac-and-cheese can do in terms of families, what else can [mayo] and others can do, us being able to be there for those kind of meal solutions is part of that answer as well.

    然後正如我們之前所說的那樣,了解我們如何在某些類別中開展促銷活動,以便我們實際上可以與消費者一起提供正確的整體膳食解決方案。所以如果你想一想烤奶酪三明治對卡夫單打有什麼作用,卡夫通心粉和奶酪對家庭有什麼作用,[蛋黃醬]和其他人還能做什麼,我們能夠為那些人提供幫助膳食解決方案也是該答案的一部分。

  • The one other thing I would say is if you look at that same channel shift within Foodservice, we're also making sure that we are adjusting, too, for that. We are seeing how our business continues to grow in QSR and for us is continue to grow that business. And we are doing that and we're growing share of that business as well. So it's making sure that consumers are shifting to -- from certain restaurants to QSR. We are making sure that we are there for them too, to continue to drive our products and continue to drive our growth, which is the way it resulted in Q1.

    我要說的另一件事是,如果您在 Foodservice 中查看相同的渠道轉變,我們也會確保我們也在為此進行調整。我們看到我們的業務如何在 QSR 中繼續增長,並且對我們來說是繼續發展該業務。我們正在這樣做,我們也在增加該業務的份額。因此,它確保消費者正在從某些餐館轉向快餐店。我們確保我們也支持他們,繼續推動我們的產品並繼續推動我們的增長,這就是第一季度的結果。

  • So thank you for the question, Ken.

    謝謝你的問題,肯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • One moment for our next question, please. And it comes from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

    請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。它來自 Jason English 與 Goldman Sachs 的關係。

  • Jason M. English - VP

    Jason M. English - VP

  • Two quick questions. First, the gross margin outlook for the year. Great to see it moving up. It implies that your gross margin for the year is going to look a lot like your first quarter, which would, of course, market end to what has been like a sequential build with every quarter moving higher. I guess my question is why would that be the case, especially given the cost inflation appears to be moderating.

    兩個快速問題。首先,今年的毛利率展望。很高興看到它向上移動。這意味著你今年的毛利率看起來很像你的第一季度,當然,這將結束一個連續構建的市場,每個季度都會走高。我想我的問題是為什麼會這樣,特別是考慮到成本通脹似乎正在放緩。

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Sorry, Jason, could you repeat the question talking about the trajectory of the gross margin throughout the year?

    抱歉,Jason,你能重複這個關於全年毛利率軌蹟的問題嗎?

  • Jason M. English - VP

    Jason M. English - VP

  • Yes. Gross margin has been building sequentially, right? You did have a chart in one of your slides showing every quarter moving higher. Your full year guidance implies that it kind of goes sideways. So you're going to finish the year at a margin rate very comparable to the first quarter. So my question is, why shouldn't we expect it to continue to grind a little higher as cost inflation moderates?

    是的。毛利率一直在連續增長,對吧?你的一張幻燈片中確實有一張圖表顯示每個季度都在走高。你的全年指導意味著它有點橫盤整理。所以你將以與第一季度非常相似的保證金率結束今年。所以我的問題是,為什麼我們不應該期望它隨著成本通脹放緩而繼續上漲一點?

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Yes. No, the gross margin -- we've increased a little bit throughout the next quarter. So we should see Q4 will be the highest one. Q2 goes a little bit sideways based on component of mix in our portfolio as well, given the type of products that sell more during Q1 and Q4 in comparison to last sales in December. But beyond that, no, because the costs are continued to ease, the price -- we put a lot of price in the middle of the quarter. So we have too reflection of that now in Q2. But remember as well, and then I'm going to talk to that something from next year, right? But no, the gross margin will gradually increase throughout the year. And it's expectation is because of product mix, which is not seasonality.

    是的。不,毛利率——我們在下個季度有所增加。所以我們應該看到第四季度將是最高的。考慮到與 12 月份的上次銷售相比,第一季度和第四季度銷售更多的產品類型,第二季度也基於我們投資組合中的組合成分而略有橫向。但除此之外,不,因為成本繼續下降,價格 - 我們在本季度中期投入了很多價格。所以我們現在在第二季度也對此進行了反思。但也請記住,然後我將從明年開始討論這個問題,對嗎?但不會,毛利率會在全年逐漸上升。它的預期是因為產品組合,而不是季節性。

  • Jason M. English - VP

    Jason M. English - VP

  • Yes. That's helpful. I appreciate that. And then free cash flow, can you tell us what your outlook is for the full year in terms of conversion or level, however you want to communicate that. And I know you talked about working inventory down. It built a lot last year, and obviously, there's still a heavy usage of cash again in the first quarter. How much of that do you think we can back out over the course of this year? Or do we have to kind of bleed into next year before we can normalize those levels?

    是的。這很有幫助。我很感激。然後是自由現金流,你能告訴我們你對全年的轉化率或水平的展望嗎,無論你想表達什麼。我知道你談到了減少庫存。它去年建立了很多,顯然,第一季度仍然大量使用現金。你認為我們在今年可以取消多少?或者我們是否必須在明年使這些水平正常化之前流血?

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Yes. So free cash flow, as we said last quarter, we expect this year to close in the 75% to 80% range, which is in line with our plan. We even talk about that in CAGNY. And then we expect by 2025 to go up to 100%. This has to do mainly with the CapEx ramp-up that we have done this year and next year, which is close to 4% and then expect to wind down. Working capital has been -- was a drag last year and in Q1 was also a negative a bit. We prioritize service-level recovery, probably the payback is obviously there.

    是的。所以自由現金流,正如我們上個季度所說,我們預計今年將在 75% 至 80% 的範圍內收盤,這符合我們的計劃。我們甚至在 CAGNY 討論過這個問題。然後我們預計到 2025 年將達到 100%。這主要與我們今年和明年完成的資本支出增加有關,接近 4%,然後預計會逐漸減少。營運資金一直是——去年是一個拖累,在第一季度也是一個負數。我們優先考慮服務水平恢復,可能回報顯然就在那裡。

  • What I can tell you is we have a very robust plan -- very robust plan to bring the inventory down to level before. We have been working with buffers. I mean, as everybody in the industry does, given other services about supply chain, volatility and resilience. But we have a very clear line of glide path to break it down throughout the year. So the expectation for inventory is to land the year at similar levels to very well to pre-pandemic level as a percentage of COGS.

    我可以告訴你的是,我們有一個非常穩健的計劃——非常穩健的計劃,將庫存降低到之前的水平。我們一直在使用緩衝區。我的意思是,就像業內的每個人一樣,考慮到有關供應鏈、波動性和彈性的其他服務。但我們有一條非常清晰的下滑線,可以全年打破它。因此,對庫存的預期是使今年的庫存水平與大流行前的水平相當,佔 COGS 的百分比。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • One moment for our next question, please, and it comes the from line of John Baumgartner with Mizuho Securities.

    請稍等一下我們的下一個問題,它來自瑞穗證券的 John Baumgartner。

  • John Joseph Baumgartner - MD & Senior Consumer Equity Research Analyst

    John Joseph Baumgartner - MD & Senior Consumer Equity Research Analyst

  • I wanted to come back to promotion in the U.S., Carlos. There were a few categories that drove the bulk of U.S. share loss in Q1 but I think there was also categories where your promotion levels really seem below branded competitors. So is it fair to isolate the share losses to reduce promo and lingering supply chain issues? Or are there other factors in play outside of promo and supply chain?

    我想回到美國進行宣傳,卡洛斯。有幾個類別導致第一季度大部分美國市場份額損失,但我認為還有一些類別,您的促銷水平似乎確實低於品牌競爭對手。那麼,隔離股票損失以減少促銷和揮之不去的供應鏈問題是否公平?或者在促銷和供應鏈之外還有其他因素在起作用嗎?

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - Executive VP & President of North America

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - Executive VP & President of North America

  • No, John. I think that's a -- there's a fair assessment. But I guess, let me start with the fact that as we think about growing the business, we have a very disciplined approach of how we're going to do that. So we are -- as Miguel mentioned, we're going to focus on our growth platforms and the growth they have in our portfolio. We're going to make sure we're building innovation that's disruptive and that we continue to adapt the core to the consumer trends, and we're going to manage the margin with efficiency to reinvest in the business with double-digit investments in marketing, technology and R&D. And as you said, there are a few kind of categories where we saw a slowdown.

    不,約翰。我認為這是一個 - 有一個公平的評估。但我想,讓我從這樣一個事實開始:當我們考慮發展業務時,我們對如何做到這一點有非常嚴格的方法。所以我們 - 正如米格爾提到的那樣,我們將專注於我們的增長平台以及它們在我們投資組合中的增長。我們將確保我們正在構建具有顛覆性的創新,並繼續調整核心以適應消費者趨勢,我們將有效地管理利潤率,以兩位數的營銷投資對業務進行再投資、技術和研發。正如你所說,有幾種類別我們看到了放緩。

  • And let me remind you, too, that we took pricing in the middle of the quarter as we were catching up to margins. So if you think about a couple of those categories, let me highlight a couple of them. One, cream cheese, for example. We did see some supply chain challenges that we had in the quarter. Those are things that prevented us from really taken advantage of the eastern time period and will be -- and in fact, we are now in a position that will be better off as we go into the year to go.

    讓我也提醒你,我們在本季度中期進行了定價,因為我們正在追趕利潤率。因此,如果您考慮其中的幾個類別,請讓我重點介紹其中的幾個。一,例如奶油奶酪。我們確實看到了我們在本季度遇到的一些供應鏈挑戰。這些是阻止我們真正利用東部時間的因素,而且將會——事實上,我們現在處於一個可以更好地進入下一年的位置。

  • Another one, I'll tell you with cold cuts in which we began the year with a low inventory situation in our business. And again, as we think about cold cuts by the end of the summer, we should be in a much better place in terms of complete supply in the overall business. So that sense of the short-term supply constraint, it's an assessment -- well assessment of how we see the quarter as well. The one thing I would add too is that there are places where categories, we're simply not going to be chasing volume down. So if you think about bacon, it's a category that we are -- that probably was about a point of headwind when you look at the data and consumer data, but we are simply not going to be chasing volume that is not profitable. So that gives you a sense about how kind of we're looking at business and what drove the first quarter.

    另一個,我會冷切地告訴你,我們今年年初的業務庫存情況很低。再一次,當我們考慮到夏末的冷切時,我們應該在整體業務的完整供應方面處於更好的位置。因此,短期供應限制的感覺,這是一種評估 - 以及我們如何看待本季度的評估。我還要補充的一件事是,有些地方有類別,我們根本不會追求音量下降。因此,如果你考慮培根,它就是我們所在的類別——當你查看數據和消費者數據時,這可能是一個逆風點,但我們根本不會追逐無利可圖的數量。這樣您就可以了解我們看待業務的方式以及推動第一季度的因素。

  • John Joseph Baumgartner - MD & Senior Consumer Equity Research Analyst

    John Joseph Baumgartner - MD & Senior Consumer Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. And on the international side, your categories -- I guess, historically, your category has been pretty defensive in terms of demand or economic weakness. And I'm curious, if you're doing a lot of good things, ramping distribution, launching new products. But as you transform the business with growth in food service, the new sauces, the BEES partnership with ADI, how do you think about the marginal structure? Are these new outlets and products introducing greater volatility into the business? Or do they benefit you in that they reduce some of the impact of private label and price sensitivities in places like the U.K. and Europe. How do you think about the net resilience you're building outside the U.S.?

    好的。在國際方面,你的類別——我想,從歷史上看,你的類別在需求或經濟疲軟方面一直具有相當的防禦性。我很好奇,如果你做了很多好事,增加分銷,推出新產品。但是,當您通過食品服務、新醬料、BEES 與 ADI 的合作夥伴關係來轉變業務時,您如何看待邊際結構?這些新的渠道和產品是否會給企業帶來更大的波動性?或者它們是否對您有利,因為它們減少了英國和歐洲等地自有品牌和價格敏感性的一些影響。您如何看待您在美國以外建立的淨彈性?

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Rafael, do you want to answer that one?

    拉斐爾,你想回答那個問題嗎?

  • Rafael de Oliveira - Executive VP & Zone President of International Markets

    Rafael de Oliveira - Executive VP & Zone President of International Markets

  • Yes. No, happy to. I think we need to differentiate a bit what -- how we're growing in emerging markets and the developed markets across internationally. I think -- I mean, what you described probably applies a lot to the developed market because as you know, has been talking about, across emerging markets, we are growing significantly and the go-to-market and the opportunity have in -- on execution of this go-to-market has been significant and continues to be.

    是的。不,很高興。我認為我們需要區分一下——我們如何在新興市場和國際發達市場發展。我認為 - 我的意思是,你所描述的可能非常適用於發達市場,因為正如你所知,一直在談論,在新興市場中,我們正在顯著增長並且進入市場和機會 -這種上市的執行意義重大,並將繼續如此。

  • On the developed market, I mean it's a mix. I mean we've been renovating our portfolio significantly in all the base specialty mentioned Europe. And then launching the products that have been incremental, not only in sauces and Easy Meals category. Like those are the 2 platforms that we've been growing, especially the sauces of Taste Elevation. So this has been the focus. I mean right now is delivering the results that we expect and again, providing the gains that we need and the resources from the core and the innovation growth that comes from those introductions.

    在發達市場,我的意思是它是混合的。我的意思是,我們一直在顯著更新我們在歐洲提到的所有基礎專業領域的投資組合。然後推出增量產品,不僅在醬汁和便餐類別中。就像我們一直在發展的兩個平台一樣,尤其是 Taste Elevation 的醬汁。所以這一直是重點。我的意思是現在正在提供我們期望的結果,並再次提供我們需要的收益和來自核心的資源以及來自這些引入的創新增長。

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • And just to add to that, if you remember, again international zone, we have developed -- marketing by emerging markets, right, emerging markets, 10% of our business. We expect to grow double digits like we have been doing. As a different thing plans about expanding distribution, but it has to be better in a profitable way. And you might have noticed in the prepared remarks that since we start to require from our emerging markets, a certain level of minimum ROIC or NDA, I think we're seeing a fairly healthy balance between top and bottom line. And we saw very significant gross margin expansion in emerging markets across the board in the quarter.

    除此之外,如果你還記得的話,我們又開發了國際區域——新興市場營銷,對,新興市場,占我們業務的 10%。我們希望像我們一直在做的那樣增長兩位數。作為一個不同的事情計劃擴大分銷,但它必須以有利可圖的方式更好。你可能已經在準備好的評論中註意到,由於我們開始要求新興市場達到一定水平的最低 ROIC 或 NDA,我認為我們在頂線和底線之間看到了相當健康的平衡。我們看到本季度新興市場的毛利率全面增長。

  • And I think with expectation -- that should continue to improve. So we feel very good at part of the investments that Miguel has said about $150 million, which is going across market and R&D technology and in some cases, sales headcount. But in the case of the emerging markets, we are accelerating the go-to-market expansion. Again, we always keep our stability top of mind here. We don't want to grow without delivering returns. And on the developed markets, not only in the U.S. but also in selected countries in developed, we are using part of these incremental investments to restate marketing levels and accelerate in some cases the innovation agenda. So it's still very good because that allow us to build -- continue to build the future growth of the company.

    我滿懷期待地認為——這應該會繼續改善。因此,我們對 Miguel 所說的大約 1.5 億美元的部分投資感到非常滿意,這些投資涉及市場和研發技術,在某些情況下還涉及銷售人員。但就新興市場而言,我們正在加速進入市場的擴張。同樣,我們始終將穩定性放在首位。我們不想在沒有回報的情況下實現增長。在發達市場,不僅在美國,而且在發達國家的選定國家,我們正在使用這些增量投資的一部分來重申營銷水平,並在某些情況下加速創新議程。所以它仍然非常好,因為這讓我們能夠建立 - 繼續建立公司的未來增長。

  • Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

    Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

  • Let me mention one thing that you said that you mentioned that entering new categories with innovation, you're right. I mean we launched in U.K. Heinz pasta sauce. And in a couple of months, we achieved 7% share, and we continue growing. We just launched a vodka pasta sauce with Absolute that is being extremely successful in the market. But it's not only in Europe.

    我提一件事,你說你說進入新品類,創新,你說的對。我的意思是我們在英國推出了亨氏意大利麵醬。幾個月後,我們的份額達到了 7%,而且還在繼續增長。我們剛剛推出了一種在市場上非常成功的絕對伏特加意大利麵醬。但它不僅在歐洲。

  • I mean if you look at the profile of innovation that we are having right now in the U.S. is very different from the past. In the past, we had a lot of innovation but really not incremental, it's very cannibalistic. I just think about what we've been launching, like NotCo that we are going to -- it's going to be national during the summertime. It's basically 80% incremental to the category or just spices that we just launched in the U.S. through direct-to-consumer, which is spices, which is a huge market where we don't play today.

    我的意思是,如果你看一下我們現在在美國所擁有的創新概況,就會與過去大不相同。過去,我們有很多創新,但實際上不是漸進式的,而是非常自相殘殺的。我只是在想我們一直在推出的東西,比如我們將要推出的 NotCo——它將在夏季全國推出。它基本上是我們剛剛通過直接面向消費者在美國推出的香料類別或香料的 80% 增量,這是一個我們今天不玩的巨大市場。

  • Our Tingly Ted's that we are launching globally throughout the year that is in hot sauces that is a pretty growing category that we will not play or even Kraft Mac & Cheese frozen that we are launching, that we are a leader in -- with Kraft Mac & Cheese. We have a very strong portfolio of frozen, but we didn't have an option of Kraft Mac & Cheese frozen. And I can continue this list and tell you about HomeBake and increased Home microwave -- really incremental innovation that will start to change the profile of innovation in our company.

    我們全年在全球推出的 Tingly Ted's 辣醬是一個增長相當快的類別,我們不會玩,甚至是我們正在推出的卡夫通心粉和冷凍奶酪,我們是領導者 - 與卡夫通心粉& 奶酪。我們有非常強大的冷凍產品組合,但我們沒有冷凍卡夫通心粉和奶酪的選擇。我可以繼續這個清單,告訴你關於 HomeBake 和增加的家用微波爐——真正的漸進式創新將開始改變我們公司的創新形象。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the question comes from Stephen Powers with Deutsche Bank.

    問題來自德意志銀行的 Stephen Powers。

  • Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

    Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

  • Great. I just wanted to follow up on the supply topic. It sounds like you've made good headway and have good visibility to improvements going forward. But I guess, just framing that, is there a way to think about what the supply challenges in the first quarter cost you? And then as you move forward with those supply bottlenecks resolved, do you kind of resume a more normal growth trajectory in those categories? Would that -- were those issues behind you? Do you sort of -- do you accelerate a catch-up over the next couple of quarters as you dig out of the whole? Or is there -- is it more prudent for us to think about a more gradual ramp of recovery, again, as those issues abate.

    偉大的。我只是想跟進供應話題。聽起來您已經取得了很好的進展,並且對未來的改進有很好的了解。但我想,僅以此為框架,有沒有辦法考慮第一季度的供應挑戰讓你付出了什麼代價?然後,隨著供應瓶頸的解決,您是否會在這些類別中恢復更正常的增長軌跡?那會 - 那些問題在你身後嗎?你有點 - 當你從整體中挖掘出來時,你會在接下來的幾個季度加速追趕嗎?或者是——隨著這些問題的消退,我們再次考慮更漸進的複蘇是否更為謹慎。

  • Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

    Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

  • Andre, maybe Carlos then.

    安德烈,也許是卡洛斯。

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Thanks for your question. Look, we obviously expect as some of the solutions some -- as Carlos indicated, we expect over time to be review the inventory at the retailer and that should come together with some improvement in the top line performance. But again, it's all contemplated in our guidance here. Remember that our priority in the U.S. is to grow in the growth platforms, and the priority growth platform have performed very well in the first quarter, particularly Taste Elevation and Easy Meals. But we expect categories like -- which is to improve their performance all the year as those problems get behind us.

    謝謝你的問題。看,我們顯然希望作為一些解決方案——正如卡洛斯所指出的那樣,我們希望隨著時間的推移審查零售商的庫存,這應該與頂線業績的一些改善一起出現。但同樣,我們在這裡的指南中都考慮到了這一切。請記住,我們在美國的首要任務是在增長平台上實現增長,而優先增長平台在第一季度表現非常出色,尤其是 Taste Elevation 和 Easy Meals。但我們期望像這樣的類別——隨著這些問題的過去,它們會全年提高性能。

  • In other categories like in meat, as Carlos also said, not necessarily we're going to be a strong acceleration in growth because we're also trying to be prudent about having the profitability there. So it's about having the right balance but yes...

    正如卡洛斯所說,在肉類等其他類別中,我們不一定會強勁加速增長,因為我們也在努力謹慎對待那裡的盈利能力。所以這是關於保持適當的平衡但是是的......

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - Executive VP & President of North America

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - Executive VP & President of North America

  • Not much to add. What I would say is we continue to see the improvements in service levels. So just to give you a kind of a framework last year. I think at this time of the year, we were kind of in the mid-80s. We are now -- in the mid-90s actually closer to the high levels of 90s, so as we exit the first quarter. So I feel like we do have a couple of categories that I mentioned earlier, where we had some isolated challenges. But overall, the business we are sectoring the right trajectory to continue to service the business the right way as we go forward.

    沒什麼好補充的。我要說的是,我們繼續看到服務水平的提高。所以只是為了給你一個去年的框架。我認為每年的這個時候,我們都處於 80 年代中期。我們現在 - 在 90 年代中期實際上更接近 90 年代的高水平,所以當我們退出第一季度時。所以我覺得我們確實有幾個我之前提到的類別,我們在這些類別中遇到了一些孤立的挑戰。但總的來說,我們正在劃分正確的業務軌道,以便在我們前進的過程中繼續以正確的方式為業務提供服務。

  • Anne-Marie Megela - VP & Global Head of IR

    Anne-Marie Megela - VP & Global Head of IR

  • Operator, that will be it for the Q&A session. I'd like to turn it over to Miguel for some closing comments.

    接線員,問答環節就到此為止。我想將其轉交給 Miguel 以徵求一些結束意見。

  • Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

    Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

  • I just want to thank you for the time you spent with us, and looking forward to sharing more information and more results with you. Thank you so much.

    我只想感謝您與我們一起度過的時光,並期待與您分享更多信息和更多成果。太感謝了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And with that, we conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。至此,我們結束了今天的電話會議。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。