卡夫亨氏 (KHC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Kraft Heinz Company fourth quarter results conference call. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加卡夫亨氏公司第四季業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Anne-Marie Megela, Head of Global Investor Relations.

現在我想將會議交給今天的演講者、全球投資者關係主管 Anne-Marie Megela。

Thank you, and hello, everyone. This is Anne-Marie Megela, Head of Investor Relations of the Kraft Heinz Company, and welcome to a Q&A session for our fourth quarter 2023 business update. During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations for the future, including items related to our business plans and expectations, strategy, efforts and investments and related timing and expected impacts. These statements are based on how we see things today, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please see the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in today's earnings release, which accompanies this call as well as our most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more information regarding these risks and uncertainties.

謝謝大家，大家好。我是卡夫亨氏公司投資人關係主管 Anne-Marie Megela，歡迎參加我們 2023 年第四季業務更新的問答環節。在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會就我們對未來的預期做出前瞻性陳述，包括與我們的業務計劃和預期、策略、努力和投資以及相關時間表和預期影響相關的項目。這些陳述是基於我們今天對事物的看法，由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱今天的收益發布中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素，該聲明與本次電話會議一起發布，以及我們最近的10-K、10-Q 和8-K 文件，以了解有關這些風險和不確定性的更多資訊。

Additionally, we may refer to non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude certain items for our financial results recorded in accordance with GAAP. Please refer to today's earnings release and the non-GAAP information available on our website at ir.kraftheinzcompany.com under News and Events, for a discussion of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP financial measures.

此外，我們可能會參考非公認會計準則財務指標，其中不包括根據公認會計準則記錄的財務表現的某些項目。請參閱今天的收益報告以及我們網站 ir.kraftheinzcompany.com 新聞和活動下提供的非 GAAP 信息，以討論我們的非 GAAP 財務指標以及與可比較 GAAP 財務指標的調節情況。

Before we begin the Q&A session, it gives me great pleasure to hand it over to Carlos Abrams-Rivera for opening comments and to host his first earnings update as our Chief Executive Officer.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我很高興將其交給卡洛斯·艾布拉姆斯-裡維拉（Carlos Abrams-Rivera）進行開場評論，並主持他作為我們首席執行官的第一次收益更新。

Carlos, over to you.

卡洛斯，交給你了。

Well, thank you, Anne-Marie, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Before opening the call for questions, I just would like to say thank you to all my colleagues here at Kraft Heinz for deliver another solid 2023 results, and at the same time, making the strategic investment for the future.

好的，謝謝你，安妮瑪麗，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。在開始提問之前，我想對卡夫亨氏的所有同事表示感謝，感謝你們在 2023 年再次取得了紮實的業績，同時也為未來做出了戰略投資。

And frankly, all that while navigating some persistent industry pressures. I am very enthusiastic for our next chapter here at Kraft Heinz. And in 2024, we expect to drive top line growth, return to positive volumes, expand gross margins and operating margins and continue to reinvest in the business and an iconic brands.

坦白說，這一切都是在應對一些持續的行業壓力的同時。我對卡夫亨氏的下一個篇章充滿熱情。到 2024 年，我們預計將推動營收成長，恢復正銷量，擴大毛利率和營業利潤率，並繼續對業務和標誌性品牌進行再投資。

With that, have Andre joining me today. Let's open the call for the Q&A.

那麼，今天請安德烈加入我。讓我們開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Carl, I was hoping to start out maybe organic sales in the fourth quarter were impacted, as you talked about by trade timing and a retail inventory deload. You're suggesting that you expect the first quarter organic sales to be similar to 4Q, which implies that underlying sales maybe could be a bit worse than 4Q. I don't think you expect the retailer deload to continue. So if I have that right, I guess, what would cause the sequential slowdown in organic sales in 1Q? And how do you see that playing out moving forward?

卡爾，我希望首先第四季度的有機銷售可能會受到影響，正如您所談到的交易時間和零售庫存減少。您建議您預期第一季的有機銷售額與第四季度相似，這意味著基礎銷售額可能會比第四季差一些。我認為您預計零售商的減持不會繼續下去。因此，如果我的說法正確，我想是什麼導致第一季有機銷售連續放緩？您如何看待這種情況的發展？

Yes. Good question, Andrew. Thank you for that. The math on Q4 to Q1 may be similar, but the factor driving it are very, very different. I think maybe, Andre, if you can give a little more color as to the effects of both in North America business versus the emerging market business and how that's shaping kind of the math behind the numbers?

是的。好問題，安德魯。謝謝你。 Q4 和 Q1 的數學原理可能相似，但驅動因素非常非常不同。我想也許，安德烈，你能否就北美業務與新興市場業務的影響提供更多的信息，以及這如何影響數字背後的數學？

Sure. So we -- as Carlos said, we do expect similar numbers from Q4, but coming from different drivers. So on North America, we do expect better performance because we should not repeat both the trade timing and the inventory deload. We think [we're] at a healthy level at this point. And sellout, if anything, maybe it will be in line or slightly better [going] into Q1.

當然。因此，正如卡洛斯所說，我們確實預計第四季度會出現類似的數字，但來自不同的驅動因素。因此，在北美，我們確實預期會有更好的表現，因為我們不應該重複交易時間和庫存減負。我們認為目前我們處於健康水平。如果有什麼不同的話，也許第一季的情況會比較好，或者會稍微好一點。

Now when you talk about emerging markets, we do expect a shipment phasing that will affect Q1. So we do expect, instead of growing double digits like we have been doing consistently, emerging markets should be growing the mid-single-digit territory. You might remember that last year, we had a very strong performance in Latin America. Brazil grew 40% in Q1. So we're going to lap it that, but nothing wrong with the underlying sellout trends both in North America and emerging markets.

現在，當您談論新興市場時，我們確實預計出貨階段將影響第一季。因此，我們確實預計，新興市場應該會實現中個位數成長，而不是像我們一直以來那樣實現兩位數成長。您可能還記得，去年我們在拉丁美洲的表現非常強勁。巴西第一季成長 40%。因此，我們將對此表示歡迎，但北美和新興市場的潛在銷售趨勢並沒有什麼問題。

Great. Really helpful. And then Carlos, it seems like if I have this right, most of the pressure in the grow platform in the fourth quarter was in easy meals. If I had that right, can you talk a bit about what caused that, and maybe how this plays out as you move into the first quarter? Because it sounds like you do expect North America to get better.

偉大的。真的很有幫助。然後卡洛斯，如果我沒說錯的話，第四季成長平台的大部分壓力都來自簡單的餐點。如果我沒說錯，您能談談造成這種情況的原因嗎？也許當您進入第一季時，情況會如何發展？因為聽起來你確實希望北美會變得更好。

Yes. And frankly, Andrew, if I think about Q4 -- let me start with some of the [product] which is we also saw the return to growth of -- or either business, driving both growth and share performance as we continue to leverage kind of the new partnership we have with our Simplot and really being able to service the business to its full potential. Now on the kind of headwind side, I think we saw some challenges in our Mac & Cheese business. Frankly, it's a business that is driven disproportionately by our SNAP exposure. So that affected some of the business in Q4.

是的。坦白說，安德魯，如果我考慮第四季度，讓我從一些[產品]開始，我們也看到了成長的回歸，或者任一業務，隨著我們繼續利用某種業務，推動成長和股票表現我們與Simplot 建立了新的合作夥伴關係，並真正能夠充分發揮業務潛力。現在，在逆風方面，我認為我們在通心粉和起司業務中看到了一些挑戰。坦白說，這是一項由我們的 SNAP 風險敞口推動的業務。這影響了第四季度的一些業務。

However, as I think about going forward, there are 3 key things we're doing to make sure we improve the trajectory. One, we're also making -- we are investing further in our new campaign behind Mac & Cheese and driving new innovation behind it as well. So you'll see from us additional areas -- bringing new (inaudible) flavors. We're bringing (inaudible) packs and we're bringing, you may have seen a new plant-based option with Mac & Cheese in a partnership with a NotCo.

然而，當我考慮未來時，我們正在做三件關鍵的事情來確保我們改善發展軌跡。第一，我們也正在進一步投資 Mac & Cheese 背後的新活動，並推動背後的新創新。所以你會從我們這裡看到更多的領域——帶來新的（聽不清楚）口味。我們帶來了（聽不清楚）包裝，您可能已經看到 Mac & Cheese 與 NotCo 合作推出了一種新的植物性選擇。

We're also making sure we continue to drive even better value with Mac & Cheese by leveraging the fact that we have in our portfolio, partnership that we can do with brands like Oscar Mayer to offer truly a complete meal solution for consumers, plus offering multipacks around 12 packs and 4 packs in different formats to different types of consumers who are looking for value.

我們還確保透過利用我們的產品組合中的事實以及我們可以與Oscar Mayer 等品牌建立的合作夥伴關係，繼續為通心粉和起司帶來更好的價值，為消費者提供真正完整的膳食解決方案，並提供多件裝有約 12 包和 4 包，以不同的形式滿足不同類型的追求價值的消費者的需求。

And then finally, we're also making sure we're partnering with retails. We're actually improving the overall assortment to optimize the traffic down the aisle. So I feel very good about the fact that the team have been able to acknowledge what happen and taking -- creating a new plan for us into '24 to improve the performance of Easy Meals.

最後，我們也確保與零售商合作。實際上，我們正​​在改進整體品種，以優化過道上的交通。因此，我對團隊能夠認識到所發生的事情並採取行動這一事實感到非常高興 - 為我們在 24 世紀制定了一個新計劃，以提高 Easy Meals 的績效。

Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

I just had a -- I have a question about Foodservice and maybe if you can just drill in a little bit. In North America, it decelerated relative to the previous quarters. And I think even in your slide, you've got underperformed relative to the industry. And so I guess a couple of questions there. One is just, was there a trade or an inventory deload happening in Foodservice?

我剛剛有一個關於餐飲服務的問題，也許你可以稍微深入一下。在北美，成長速度較前幾個季度放緩。我認為即使在你的幻燈片中，相對於行業來說，你的表現也不佳。所以我想有幾個問題。一是，餐飲服務領域是否發生了交易或庫存減少？

Maybe if you could talk a little bit about the respective channels within Foodservice, what got better and maybe what got worse? And then sort of your expectations, both for North America and global on Foodservice, do you expect it to be kind of in line with your algorithm for Foodservice this year or maybe even a touch better. Just want to unpack that Foodservice a little bit more, please.

也許您可以談談餐飲服務中的各個管道，哪些管道變得更好，哪些管道變得更糟？然後，您對北美和全球餐飲服務的期望是否與您今年的餐飲服務演算法一致，甚至可能更好一些。只是想進一步了解餐飲服務。

Glad to. Let me start by clarifying something you said in your question. In our Foodservice business, we are growing both ahead of the industry in North America and international. So I think that we actually feel very good about our performance on Foodservice, and we see that as we go forward into 2024. So we see Foodservice growing up -- growing in 2024 in our loan -- [appropriate] with our long-term guidance. So high single digits.

樂於。讓我先澄清你在問題中所說的內容。在我們的餐飲服務業務中，我們的發展領先於北美和國際產業。因此，我認為我們實際上對我們在餐飲服務方面的表現感到非常滿意，並且隨著我們進入2024 年，我們看到了這一點。因此，我們看到餐飲服務在增長- 2024 年我們的貸款增長- [適當]與我們的長期指導。這麼高的個位數。

So we think actually it's going to be a continued driver of our performance as we go into 2024. And frankly, we see that us having even more common, we go forward because we are not only performing well where we are, but we also are improving by getting into new higher-margin channels like independent and not commercial channels, plus driving big innovation, leveraging our technology, leveraging the iconic brands that we have.

因此，我們認為，實際上，隨著我們進入2024 年，這將成為我們業績的持續驅動力。坦白說，我們看到我們有更多的共同點，我們繼續前進，因為我們不僅在目前的情況下表現良好，我們還透過進入新的更高利潤的管道（例如獨立通路和非商業通路）以及推動重大創新、利用我們的技術、利用我們擁有的標誌性品牌來改進。

So until now, we have seen the beginning of the potential of Foodservice, and that is actually driving faster growth than we have seen in the industry. And we actually believe that between the innovation that we have between us going into new channels that are higher margin and more attractive, we can actually make that even a faster growing part of our portfolio as we go forward.

因此，到目前為止，我們已經看到了餐飲服務潛力的開始，這實際上推動了比我們在該行業看到的更快的成長。我們實際上相信，在我們進入利潤率更高、更具吸引力的新管道之間進行的創新之間，我們實際上可以使其成為我們未來投資組合中成長更快的部分。

I guess if I'm looking at Slide 9 correctly, I think you've got the industry growing faster than your North America business in the fourth quarter. So again, it just seems like -- I don't know if there's a disconnect between what you shipped versus what consumption was. But -- again, unless I'm looking at this slide incorrectly, it actually looks like you underperformed the industry.

我想，如果我正確地看待幻燈片 9，我認為第四季度該行業的成長速度超過了北美業務。再說一遍，我不知道你的出貨量與消費量之間是否有脫節。但是——再說一遍，除非我看錯了這張投影片，否則看起來你的表現實際上落後於整個產業。

Let me just say, I think you are looking at the slide incorrectly, and happy to follow up with you separately.

我只想說，我認為您看幻燈片的方式有誤，很高興單獨跟進您。

Our next question comes from Stephen Powers with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂芬鮑爾斯。

Carlos, I guess stepping back, I'd just like a little bit more detail on your conviction surrounding improve total portfolio volume trends and presumably volume share trends and a return to growth as you progress through '24. Because on the one hand, I understand drivers that you talked about in your prepared remarks. On the other hand, we're coming off a quarter that saw you tweak organic growth expectations lower coming into the quarter and then effectively undershoot those expectations when the dust settled.

卡洛斯，我想退一步，我只是想更詳細地了解您關於改善總投資組合數量趨勢和大概的數量份額趨勢以及隨著您在 24 年取得進展而恢復增長的信念。因為一方面，我理解您在準備好的發言中談到的驅動因素。另一方面，在我們即將結束的一個季度中，您在本季度調低了有機成長預期，然後在塵埃落定後實際上低於這些預期。

So I guess, again, what gives you the confidence that we're not only leveling off, but we're approaching a level that -- where we can return to growth without, I guess, incremental investment in promotions and price because it doesn't seem like that's part of the outlook.

因此，我想，是什麼讓您有信心，我們不僅正在趨於平穩，而且正在接近一個水平，即我們可以恢復增長，而無需在促銷和價格方面進行增量投資，因為它不這似乎不是前景的一部分。

Right. Let me just -- let me unpack that a little bit. First, as you -- as Andre mentioned earlier, there is some factors specifically affecting our Q3 -- our Q4 performance in terms of trade as well as inventory that we're not going to repeat as we go forward. As we go into 2024, if I think about, first, a top line, we are going to continue the progression of emerging market at Foodservice.

正確的。讓我稍微解開一下。首先，正如安德烈之前提到的，有一些因素特別影響我們的第三季度——我們第四季在貿易和庫存方面的表現，我們在未來不會重複這些因素。進入 2024 年，如果我先考慮營收，我們將繼續推動餐飲服務新興市場。

And then emerging markets already growing volume. We have seen the progress of our Foodservice business growing faster the industry. And in North America on the top line, we actually expect to recover share as we are now making all the pay off, all the innovation investments we have made, we'll start seeing that coming throughout the year. So I think that idea of us continue to invest in the right things behind our insights in North America, it's paying out with innovation.

然後新興市場的交易量已經在成長。我們看到我們的餐飲服務業務的進步比整個行業更快。在北美，我們實際上預計會恢復份額，因為我們現在正在獲得所有回報，我們所做的所有創新投資，我們將在全年開始看到這一點。因此，我認為我們繼續投資於我們在北美的見解背後的正確事物，它將透過創新得到回報。

And then also [too], to have the right business plans with our retailers. Those factors actually are going to help us drive the top line with confidence. If I think about kind of the -- specifically, you talked about volume. One of the things that we are looking at is we are anticipating a return to the historical (inaudible) levels. And in fact, we are seeing that already.

然後，[也]與我們的零售商制定正確的業務計劃。這些因素實際上將幫助我們充滿信心地推動營收成長。如果我考慮一下——具體來說，你談到了成交量。我們正在關注的事情之一是我們預計會回到歷史（聽不清楚）水平。事實上，我們已經看到了這一點。

So we are expecting volumes to turn positive in the second half in the year because, as I mentioned, the idea of us continue to invest in innovation that actually will give us the right tailwinds as we go into the year, plus, we no longer will have some headwinds associated with both pricing that we took in Q1 of last year as well as the SNAP benefits cycling that as we go into the second half of the year. So that also -- that all together gives me the confidence that we can see that us coming together with a better performance we're going to '24 in a way that actually allows us to exit the year in an algo for us as a company.

因此，我們預計下半年銷量將轉為正數，因為正如我所提到的，我們繼續投資於創新的想法實際上將為我們進入今年帶來正確的推動力，此外，我們不再我們去年第一季度的定價以及下半年的SNAP 福利循環都會帶來一些阻力。因此，所有這些都給了我信心，我們可以看到我們以更好的表現團結在一起，我們將以一種實際上允許我們作為一家公司以一種算法結束這一年的方式進入“24” 。

Okay. Okay. Very good. Very good. And then Andre, if I could, there was -- the free cash flow conversion this year improved as it was expected too. So that's a positive. I guess, just as we look into '24, how are you thinking about free cash flow conversion in the new year? Can we expect further improvements? And if not, either way, I guess, what are the drivers of free cash flow progress as we go forward?

好的。好的。非常好。非常好。然後安德烈，如果可以的話，今年的自由現金流轉換也如預期有所改善。所以這是積極的。我想，正如我們展望 24 世紀一樣，您如何看待新一年的自由現金流轉換？我們可以期待進一步的改進嗎？如果不是，我想，無論哪種方式，隨著我們的發展，自由現金流進展的驅動因素是什麼？

Sure. So yes, as you pointed out, we were able to deliver a very solid cash flow conversion in 2023, above [80%]. And we do expect a small progression also as we head into 2024. We still going to be in the 80s territory because we do expect another year of solid CapEx investment like we have been doing in the last 2 years. There's a lot of good investment opportunities for [another] organic business. .

當然。所以，是的，正如您所指出的，我們能夠在 2023 年實現非常穩定的現金流轉換，高於 [80%]。我們確實預計，進入 2024 年時也會出現小幅進展。我們仍將處於 80 年代的水平，因為我們確實預計又一年會像過去兩年一樣，實現穩健的資本支出投資。 [另一個]有機業務有很多很好的投資機會。 。

Yes, and we have some extra step-up that we also mentioned it's affecting earnings as well. So those 2 factors go against that. But on the other hand, the working capital should expect to continue to improve as a consequence of the investments we have been making.

是的，我們有一些額外的提升，我們也提到它也會影響收入。所以這兩個因素是相反的。但另一方面，由於我們一直在進行的投資，營運資金預計將繼續改善。

The one thing I would add too is as we go into -- those of you joining us in CAGNY, would be able to unpack to a little more of our investments we're making. I mentioned quite a bit about innovation, about how we are going to continue to invest in our brands, making sure they are superior to our competition. So I think you'll see a lot of more details that from myself and the team when we're together in Florida.

我還要補充的一件事是，當我們進入 CAGNY 時，你們將能夠了解我們正在進行的更多投資。我提到了很多關於創新，關於我們將如何繼續投資我們的品牌，確保它們優於我們的競爭對手。因此，我認為當我們在佛羅裡達州相聚時，您會從我自己和團隊中看到更多細節。

Our next question comes from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

Just curious, there's some early indications that maybe as an industry, quick service restaurants, seeing some fraying at the edges in terms of consumer demand, mainly under the weight of higher prices. I'm just curious if this is something you're seeing as well. And to what extent, if at all, does your outlook maybe potentially factor some kind of slowdown there.

只是好奇，有一些早期跡象表明，也許作為一個行業，快速服務餐廳在消費者需求方面出現了一些磨損，主要是在價格上漲的壓力下。我只是好奇你是否也看到了這種情況。您的前景在多大程度上（如果有的話）可能會導致某種程度的放緩。

Yes. In our business, frankly, a lot of our business can is, is really focused on front of the house. And we're actually seeing solid performance for our Away-From-Home business, both in the U.S. and as well as outside the U.S. And if you think about the fact that outside the U.S., we use that channel very much as a way for us to drive awareness and build their brands. That continues to drive positive growth for us.

是的。在我們的業務中，坦白說，我們的許多業務確實集中在前台。事實上，我們在美國和美國以外的地區都看到了我們的離家業務的穩健表現。如果你考慮到美國以外的事實，我們很大程度上利用該管道作為我們來提高知名度並建立他們的品牌。這繼續推動我們的積極成長。

In the U.S. as well, we see that even within the context of QSR, we continue to see progress and improvement. But at the same time, we're also expanding into new channels that allows us to continue to drive the growth, whether that is from our vending opportunities into new hospitality areas. So we also are having a little bit of a broader view of how we define our Away-From-Home business to go into new spaces that we know are margin accretive and not be dependent on just 1 channel in order for us to drive the growth.

在美國，我們也看到，即使在 QSR 的背景下，我們也繼續看到進步和改進。但同時，我們也在拓展新的管道，使我們能夠繼續推動成長，無論是從我們的自動販賣機會進入新的酒店領域。因此，我們對如何定義我們的外出業務也有了更廣泛的看法，以進入新的領域，我們知道這些領域可以增加利潤，而不是僅僅依賴一個管道來推動成長。

Understood. And then the gross margin increase you're expecting this year despite a little bit of lingering inflation. Can you just remind us what some of the key drivers will be of that? Is it simply a continuation of what help 2023 in terms of COGS efficiencies and some revenue growth management assistance?

明白了。然後，儘管通貨膨脹有點揮之不去，但今年的毛利率仍然會增加。您能否提醒我們一些關鍵驅動因素是什麼？這是否只是 2023 年在 COGS 效率和一些收入成長管理援助方面提供幫助的延續？

Sure. So we expect gross margin to expand again and is part of our long-term algorithm, we feel proud of what we have done so far. Remind that we always have been pricing to offset inflation on dollar for dollar, and that's what we have done in the last 2 years.

當然。因此，我們預計毛利率將再次擴大，這是我們長期演算法的一部分，我們對迄今為止所做的事情感到自豪。請記住，我們一直在定價以抵消通貨膨脹，這就是我們在過去兩年所做的。

However, in 2024, we are expecting to price approximately at 1% level, which is below the inflation that we're expected at 3%. But -- so the main driver is really coming from the gross efficiencies. We have been delivering ahead of what we [outer] line to you a couple of years back. So 2023 are very solid year, almost 4% of gross efficiency as a percentage of COGS.

然而，到 2024 年，我們預計價格約為 1% 的水平，低於我們預期的 3% 的通膨率。但是——所以主要驅動力實際上來自於總效率。幾年前，我們已經提前向您提供了[外部]路線。因此，2023 年是非常穩健的一年，總效率佔銷貨成本的百分比接近 4%。

And in 2024, we expect another solid year. So this growth efficiency is helping us, not only to offset a component of the inflation, but also is helping us to expanding gross margins and investing a little more in the business on the SG&A side. And that's something that you should expect to see from us.

2024 年，我們預計又是堅實的一年。因此，這種成長效率不僅幫助我們抵消了通貨膨脹的一部分，而且還幫助我們擴大了毛利率，並在SG&A方面的業務上進行了更多投資。這是您應該期望從我們身上看到的。

Our next question comes from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉·考夫曼。

I was hoping that you could double click a bit into the drivers behind your Q4 results in North America and how you're thinking about those factors going forward? You pointed to weaker consumer demand, but also discrete headwinds like the inventory deload and lapping the trade accrual.

我希望您能雙擊一下北美第四季業績背後的驅動因素，以及您如何考慮這些因素的未來發展？您指出了消費者需求疲軟，但也指出了庫存減少和貿易應計費用減少等離散阻力。

So how are you thinking about North America consumer demand in '24? And can you explain what drove the onetime dynamics? Was it a specific retailer or specific categories where you saw a deload? And maybe you can explain the effect of the trade accrual.

那麼您如何看待 24 世紀北美消費者的需求呢？您能解釋一下是什麼推動了曾經的動態嗎？您看到減載的是特定零售商還是特定類別？也許你可以解釋一下應計貿易額的影響。

Let me start and give you a sense for how we see the consumer today. And then maybe, Andre, you can go deeper into the specifics about the Q4 and how we are -- how we see that playing as we go forward. But I guess the place that will start would be that what we're seeing in the data is -- regardless of the income levels that consumer is looking for value and they continue to be under pressure. And what we see is low-income consumers are actually shopping more at places like Dollar stores, higher income consumers, more club stores.

首先讓我讓您了解我們如何看待當今的消費者。然後，安德烈，你也許可以更深入地了解第四季度的細節以及我們的情況——我們如何看待我們前進的過程。但我想首先是我們在數據中看到的——無論消費者尋求價值的收入水平如何，並且他們仍然面臨壓力。我們看到的是，低收入消費者實際上更多地在一元商店等地方購物，而高收入消費者則更多地在俱樂部商店等地方購物。

But mostly, we are seeing them looking for overall, smaller trips to stress their dollar further. So for us, it continues to be about how do we continue to deliver value in different ways to that consumer who are very much focused on value through intentionally investing in our brands making sure we have a longer value offerings and increasing the distribution in different channels to be what we have done in the past.

但大多數情況下，我們看到他們正在尋求整體規模較小的旅行，以進一步壓低他們的美元壓力。因此，對我們來說，問題仍然是我們如何繼續以不同的方式向非常關注價值的消費者提供價值，透過有意投資我們的品牌，確保我們提供更長期的價值產品並增加不同管道的分銷成為我們過去所做的事情。

And let me just be specific before Andre give you the details on the Q4. And if I think about club channels, we have introduced a number of brands into club from Capri Sun to Lunchables. In fact, we also tested new innovation in our club channels. And in 2024, we'll have 20% higher number of offerings into club that we did in 2023. Now if I think about the entry price points in the category and the SKU that we can have in kind of areas around Dollar stores, we're actually making sure that we're driving things like improving on assortment of barbecue and mustard or -- mayonnaise dressing as well as new items around Taco Bell and our partnership that we have in order for us to drive expanded use of our Mexican initiatives.

在安德烈向您提供有關 Q4 的詳細資訊之前，讓我先具體說明一下。如果我考慮俱樂部管道，我們已經將許多品牌引入俱樂部，從 Capri Sun 到 Lunchables。事實上，我們也在俱樂部通路中測試了新的創新。到 2024 年，我們向俱樂部提供的產品數量將比 2023 年增加 20%。現在，如果我考慮一下該類別的入門價格點以及我們在一元商店周圍區域可以擁有的 SKU，我們實際上，我們正​​在確保我們正在推動諸如改進燒烤和芥末或蛋黃醬調味品的品種以及塔可鐘周圍的新產品以及我們之間的合作夥伴關係，以便我們推動擴大使用我們的墨西哥舉措。

So if I think about Dollar store, we actually have today over 300 SKUs. And year-over-year, we're going to be increasing about another 10% versus what we had in the past. So we are making sure that we are in the right channels with the right assortment and continue to invest in our innovation in order to make sure that we could -- absolute consumers looking for value independent of where they're looking for different occasions, different formats, different shopping behaviors. And now, Andre, if you want to give a little more context on the Q4.

因此，如果我考慮一元商店，我們今天實際上有 300 多個 SKU。與過去相比，我們將逐年增加約 10%。因此，我們確保我們處於正確的管道，擁有正確的產品種類，並繼續投資於我們的創新，以確保我們能夠——絕對的消費者在尋找價值，而與他們在不同場合、不同地點尋找價值無關.格式、不同的購物行為。現在，安德烈，如果您想提供更多有關第四季度的背景資訊。

Sure. So north America net sales declined 3%, and approximately 140 bps is linked to the trade accrual release from last year into -- probably 2022 and from inventory deload year-over-year. But in fact, it's not that we saw a deload happening in 2023, that in Q4 2022, as we started to recover services, started to ship ahead of consumption. So we are lapping that effect. So there's nothing really on that regard affecting 2023, it's just a lapping effect. Now the sellout was negative, and it was softer than what we anticipated. We underestimated the impact of SNAP in Q4.

當然。因此，北美淨銷售額下降了 3%，約 140 個基點與去年到 2022 年的貿易應計釋放以及庫存逐年減少有關。但事實上，我們並不是在 2023 年看到了減載，而是在 2022 年第四季度，當我們開始恢復服務時，開始在消費之前發貨。所以我們正在研磨這種效果。因此，在這方面並沒有什麼真正影響 2023 年，這只是一種重疊效應。現在銷售量為負，而且比我們預期的還要軟。我們低估了 SNAP 在第四季的影響。

It [out] should be more than 150 basis points stronger than we thought. If you remember, there was a concentration of emergency allotments at the end of 2022. So on a year-over-year basis, there is net benefits declined close to 40%, which is substantial. And that's what affected a lot of sellout.

它應該比我們想像的強 150 個基點以上。如果你還記得的話，2022 年底緊急撥款集中進行。因此，與去年同期相比，淨收益下降了近 40%，這是相當大的。這就是影響大量銷售的原因。

We should continue to see some of that in Q1. So on a year-over-year basis, Q1 ['24] still be about 20% less is -- than last year. So we're still going to suffer a portion of this effect. But on the other hand, our market share has improved in Q4 as we anticipated, which is a very good sign. We are living -- exiting the year with the best share performance of 2023. So that give us a lot of good momentum heading into this year. Hope that helps.

我們應該會在第一季繼續看到其中的一些情況。因此，與去年同期相比，第一季 ['24] 仍比去年減少約 20%。所以我們仍然會受到這種影響的一部分。但另一方面，我們的市佔率在第四季度有所提高，正如我們預期的那樣，這是一個非常好的跡象。我們正在以 2023 年最好的股票表現結束這一年。因此，這為我們進入今年帶來了許多良好的動力。希望有幫助。

Yes. Just a quick clarification. So are you saying that SNAP was a greater headwind in the fourth quarter than the prior 2 quarters? And why do you think that is?

是的。只是快速澄清一下。那您是說 SNAP 第四季的阻力比前兩季更大？你認為這是為什麼？

Yes, because there is a concentration of emergency allotments considered in Q4 of -- in '22. So there is SNAP benefit in Q4 '22 were actually higher than Q2 and Q3 2022. And this [reach out] is not a surprise. I mean we just underestimated the elasticity of that.

是的，因為 22 年第四季考慮了緊急撥款的集中。因此，22 年第 4 季的 SNAP 效益實際上高於 2022 年第 2 季和第 3 季。這種 [伸出援手] 並不令人意外。我的意思是我們只是低估了它的彈性。

Next question comes from Robert Moskow with TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Robert Moskow。

A couple of questions. Those of us analyzing your commodity exposure see a lot of deflation running through on the ingredient side, maybe even the packaging side. And your guidance is for inflation to be positive. Can you walk through some of the components that we can't see, maybe it's conversion costs or things like that, that make this a -- continue to be an inflationary year? And then my second question was, you have a $25 million write-down for, I think, systems related to your modernization efforts. Can you go into a little more detail as to what caused that write-down?

有幾個問題。我們這些分析商品風險的人會發現原料方面（甚至包裝方面）有大量通貨緊縮。您的指導是通膨為正。您能否介紹我們看不到的一些組成部分，也許是轉換成本或類似的因素，使今年繼續成為通貨膨脹的一年？我的第二個問題是，我認為，與現代化工作相關的系統，您有 2500 萬美元的減記。您能否更詳細說明導致減記的原因？

Good to hear from you. So on the inflation side, as we said in prepared remarks, we do expect inflation again in [Q2] 2024, low single digits, 3% territory, even though ingredients as a whole, we see quite a few commodities that are deflationary. We still have the impact of mainly tomatoes and sugar affecting us negatively. So there is a little net increase in terms of commodity inflation.

很高興聽到你的消息。因此，在通膨方面，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們確實預計2024 年第二季將再次出現通膨，低個位數，3%，儘管從整體來看，我們看到相當多的商品處於通貨緊縮狀態。我們仍然主要受到西紅柿和糖的負面影響。因此，商品通膨略有淨增長。

And then -- but the biggest bulk of the inflation is really coming from labor. We continue to see a relevant higher than pre-pandemic level on aging as well as transportation, thinking in 2023, the transportation costs were quite low, and we are seeing some signs of rebound on the transportation cost side.

然後——但通貨膨脹的最大部分實際上來自勞動力。我們繼續看到老化和交通方面的相關水平高於大流行前的水平，認為2023年，交通成本相當低，並且我們看到交通成本方面有一些反彈的跡象。

So this is where inflation is mostly coming from. On the second part of the question about the $25 million. So not 100% of that is the system write-off, even though it's the majority of it. And this has to do with what we decided not to maintain investment in a certain technology that we think will not be relevant for the future. So we decided to stop that investment and redirected issue, something that we think will be more relevant to us (inaudible). As you know, technology is front and center of our strategy. And we had continued to make decisions to make sure that we can take (inaudible) advantage to us. So -- and if it is my requires us to make decisions in between a part that we not initially anticipated because we saw that's the right thing for the business for the long term. We're not going to hesitate to do that.

所以這就是通貨膨脹的主要來源。關於2500萬美元問題的第二部分。因此，儘管系統沖銷佔了其中的大部分，但並不是 100% 都是系統沖銷。這與我們決定不再維持對某種我們認為與未來無關的技術的投資有關。因此，我們決定停止該投資並重新定向問題，我們認為這與我們更相關（聽不清楚）。如您所知，技術是我們策略的前沿和中心。我們繼續做出決定，以確保我們能夠利用（聽不清楚）對我們有利。因此，如果這是我的要求，我們必須在我們最初沒有預料到的部分之間做出決定，因為我們認為從長遠來看，這對業務來說是正確的事情。我們會毫不猶豫地這麼做。

And our last question comes from John Baumgartner with Mizuho Securities.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞穗證券的約翰·鮑姆加特納。

First off, wondering if you could provide an update on the outlook for efficiencies. Just given the over delivery in 2023, what's included in the guide for 2024. And as you think out to this next round of improvements, specifically the new overhead savings from automation, fixed assets. How are you thinking about the timing for when those benefits begin to accrue?

首先，想知道您是否可以提供有關效率前景的最新資訊。剛剛考慮到 2023 年的超額交付，2024 年的指南中包含了哪些內容。當您考慮下一輪改進時，特別是自動化和固定資產帶來的新的管理費用節省。您如何考慮這些好處何時開始產生？

Great. So thanks for the question. As we said, 2023 are very solid year. We delivered close to 4% of efficiencies as a percentage of COGS. And we do expect 2024 to be another year where we will be delivering ahead of the 3% COGS that we have outlined. I want to make sure that you understand that not only this is a consequence of the complete ways of working changes that we have done in supply chain, more focused on variable costs and continuous improvements.

偉大的。謝謝你的提問。正如我們所說，2023 年是非常堅實的一年。我們的效率佔銷貨成本 (COGS) 的百分比接近 4%。我們確實預計 2024 年我們將提前實現我們概述的 3% 的銷貨成本。我想確保您明白，這不僅是我們在供應鏈中進行的完整工作方式變革的結果，更注重可變成本和持續改進。

But also we are -- we still have some efficiency opportunities that are coming through as a consequence of the pandemic and all the inefficiency generated by that. That helped in 2023, and that is still going to help a little bit in 2024. But beyond that, there are a lot of things happening on the supply chain space, difficult to name only one because given the share size of our COGS, but we do have initiatives coming from network optimization in the U.S.

但我們仍然有一些由於大流行以及由此產生的低效率而出現的提高效率的機會。這對2023 年有所幫助，而且在2024 年仍然會有所幫助。但除此之外，供應鏈領域還發生了很多事情，很難僅舉出其中之一，因為考慮到我們的COGS 份額規模，但是我們確實有來自美國網路優化的舉措

We have a very complex distribution center network, more than 80 distribution centers overall. We do have initiatives in automation in factors. We have a very strong partnership with Microsoft (inaudible) should do -- technology to allow us to make faster decisions. And if that improves labor usage and reduce [huge] losses, we have a lot of opportunities on value engineering to continue to make sure to offer the right type of attributes to consumers. So there is a lot of different levers. We're going to touch on a few of them next week in CAGNY, but I think we are very pleased with the quality of the pipeline we have in supply chain now.

我們擁有非常複雜的配送中心網絡，總共有 80 多個配送中心。我們確實在要素自動化方面有舉措。我們與微軟（聽不清楚）有著非常牢固的合作關係，我們應該做的就是科技讓我們更快做出決策。如果這可以改善勞動力使用並減少[巨大]損失，我們就有很多價值工程機會來繼續確保為消費者提供正確類型的屬性。所以有很多不同的槓桿。下週我們將在 CAGNY 討論其中的一些，但我認為我們對現在供應鏈中的管道品質非常滿意。

And I think you will see is that how the investments we have been making in technology, the partnership we have been making in digital are basically fueling a lot of that efficiency in a way that actually creates some benefit for us for now and to the future as well. And you -- and again, will impact that even further when we are together in Florida.

我想你會看到的是，我們在技術方面的投資，我們在數字方面的合作夥伴關係基本上提高了效率，實際上為我們現在和未來創造了一些利益以及。當我們在佛羅裡達州相聚時，你將再次對此產生進一步的影響。

Okay. And then just quickly on international. The emerging markets vol mix was pretty solid in Q4. But I'm wondering if you can speak to the vol mix in the developed markets, what you're seeing in Europe from category performance, private label competition and the consumer dynamics there sort of giving you confidence in the international guide for 2024.

好的。然後就很快就國際了。第四季新興市場的成交量組合相當穩健。但我想知道您是否可以談談已開發市場的銷售組合，您在歐洲從品類表現、自有品牌競爭和消費者動態中看到的情況，這些都讓您對 2024 年國際指南充滿信心。

Happy to. I think if we think about what we have mentioned in terms of value and how consumers are looking for value in the U.S. is similar as well, too, in terms of consumers in Europe. I mean they are looking for that value as well.

高興。我認為，如果我們考慮一下我們在價值方面提到的內容，以及美國消費者如何尋找價值，那麼歐洲消費者也很相似。我的意思是他們也在尋找這種價值。

And we are continuing to make sure that we're bringing that value through the critical brands that we have, like our Heinz business in the U.K., for example, and how we continue to bring the products to the market that bring a number of improvements on our quality of our products as well as focusing on the benefit that we bring.

我們將繼續確保透過我們擁有的關鍵品牌（例如我們在英國的亨氏業務）帶來這種價值，以及我們如何繼續將產品推向市場，帶來一系列改進注重我們產品的品質以及我們帶來的利益。

So for example, a product like Heinz Beanz and the fact that we brings kind of such a benefit around protein, that's something that is kind of now shifting in terms of how we think about that product.

例如，像 Heinz Beanz 這樣的產品以及我們為蛋白質帶來的這種好處這一事實，現在我們對該產品的看法正在改變。

The fact that we're also bringing within certain part of our categories, new entries by leverage our brands. So in BEES will have not only the Heinz Beanz, but we also have HP big Big Beanz. And that allows us to actually play in a couple of different areas with consumers, both at the more mainstream as well as to more value.

事實上，我們也利用我們的品牌在我們的某些類別中引入了新條目。所以在BEES不只有Heinz Beanz，還有HP大Big Beanz。這使我們能夠真正與消費者一起在幾個不同的領域中發揮作用，無論是在更主流的領域還是更有價值的領域。

And then in places like Germany, we're also introducing new benefits to consumers as they are looking also again for value, whether there's Heinz mayonnaise new channels in the discount spaces, but also making sure that we continue to bring the innovation consumers are looking for from us, like our Heinz tomato ketchup with 0 sugar. So we are approaching it with the same sense as we do in the U.S., which is -- let's make sure we're in the right channels with the right assortment. And at the same time, let's focus on bringing -- focusing on the benefits that we bring with our products.

然後在德國等地，我們也向消費者推出新的福利，因為他們也再次尋求價值，折扣空間是否有亨氏蛋黃醬新管道，但也確保我們繼續帶來消費者正在尋找的創新我們的產品，例如我們的0 糖亨氏番茄醬。因此，我們以與在美國相同的方式來對待它，那就是——讓我們確保我們處於正確的管道並擁有正確的品種。同時，讓我們專注於我們的產品帶來的好處。

I would now like to turn the call back over to Anne-Marie Megela for any closing remarks.

我現在想將電話轉回給安妮-瑪麗·梅杰拉，讓其發表結束語。

Thank you, and thank you, everyone, for your interest. We look forward to seeing you next week.

謝謝大家，也謝謝大家的關注。我們期待下週見到您。

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。