卡夫亨氏 (KHC) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

在問答環節中,卡夫亨氏執行長對成功的季度表示感謝,強調了成長、份額和銷售趨勢的改善以及資產負債表的加強。該公司專注於提高北美地區的獲利能力和毛利率,特別是肉類業務。

他們正在投資新興市場和餐飲服務。他們討論了他們的資本配置優先事項,並對他們在餐飲服務業的計劃表示樂觀。他們提到在新興市場實施數據驅動的上市模式。他們強調投資正確的價格點和提高獲利量的重要性。

他們討論了公司結構的變化,並提到了無機解決方案的可能性。他們討論效率計劃以及降低成本的承諾。他們強調以獲利和可持續方式成長的重要性,並對即將卸任的執行長表示感謝。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to The Kraft Heinz Company Third Quarter Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    美好的一天,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加卡夫亨氏公司第三季業績電話會議。 (操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Anne-Marie Megela, Global Investor Relations.

    現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、全球投資者關係部門的 Anne-Marie Megela。

  • Anne-Marie Megela - VP & Global Head of IR

    Anne-Marie Megela - VP & Global Head of IR

  • Thank you, and hello, everyone. Welcome to our Q&A session for our third quarter 2023 business update. During today's call, we may have forward-looking statements regarding our expectations for the future, including items related to our business plans and expectations, strategy, efforts and investments and related timing and expected impacts. These statements are based on how we see things today, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please see the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in today's earnings release, which accompanies this call as well as our most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more information regarding these risks and uncertainties.

    謝謝大家,大家好。歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第三季業務更新問答環節。在今天的電話會議中,我們可能會就我們對未來的預期做出前瞻性陳述,包括與我們的業務計劃和預期、策略、努力和投資以及相關時間表和預期影響相關的項目。這些陳述是基於我們今天對事物的看法,由於風險和不確定性,實際結果可能存在重大差異。請參閱今天的收益報告中包含的警告性聲明和風險因素,該聲明與本次電話會議一起提供,以及我們最近的10-K、10-Q 和8-K 文件,以了解有關這些風險和不確定性的更多資訊。

  • Additionally, we may refer to non-GAAP financial measures which excludes certain items from our financial results reported in accordance with GAAP. Please refer to today's earnings release and the non-GAAP information available on our website at ir.kraftheinzcompany.com, under News and Events for a discussion of our non-financial measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP financial measures.

    此外,我們可能會參考非公認會計原則財務指標,這些指標將某些項目排除在根據公認會計原則報告的財務表現之外。請參閱今天的收益報告以及我們網站 ir.kraftheinzcompany.com 上新聞和活動下提供的非公認會計原則信息,以了解我們的非財務指標以及與可比公認會計原則財務指標的調節情況。

  • Before we begin, I'm going to hand it over to our CEO, Miguel Patricio, for some brief opening remarks.

    在開始之前,我將請我們的執行長 Miguel Patricio 做一些簡短的開場白。

  • Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

    Miguel Patricio - Chair & CEO

  • Thank you, Anne-Marie, and thank you all for being with us today. And before opening the call for questions, I just would like to thank Kraft Heinz, my entire team for another great quarter. And again, I would like just to highlight some positive aspects about this quarter.

    謝謝你,安妮瑪麗,也謝謝大家今天和我們在一起。在開始提問之前,我要感謝卡夫亨氏和我的整個團隊,感謝他們又一個出色的季度。我想再次強調本季的一些積極方面。

  • We are generating accelerated profitable growth fueled by our 3 pillars. Our share and volume trends are improving as a result of the action plans that we are implementing. And we continue to strengthen our balance sheet, hitting our target net leverage of approximately 3x. And then we continue to invest in the future with another quarter of significant investments in marketing, technology and R&D.

    在三大支柱的推動下,我們正在實現加速的利潤成長。由於我們正在實施的行動計劃,我們的份額和銷售趨勢正在改善。我們持續強化資產負債表,達到約 3 倍的淨槓桿目標。然後我們繼續對未來進行投資,在行銷、技術和研發方面又進行了四分之一的重大投資。

  • Well, with that, I have here with me today, Andre and Carlos. And so let's open the call for the Q&A.

    好吧,今天我和我在一起的是安德烈和卡洛斯。現在讓我們開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

  • Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • In Slide 33 of the slide deck this morning, you call out branded promotional activity is still below '19 levels, and Kraft activity is below branded. So one clarification. Is the branded figure you highlight all food categories, or just the branded players within Kraft Heinz's categories?

    在今天早上幻燈片的第 33 張幻燈片中,您指出品牌促銷活動仍低於 19 年的水平,而卡夫食品活動也低於品牌活動。所以需要澄清一下。您強調的品牌人物是所有食品類別,還是僅是卡夫亨氏類別的品牌人物?

  • And then I guess based on your plans for the remainder of the year and looking into '24, I guess how would you anticipate these metrics shifting? Do you expect branded promo levels to return to historical levels? And would you expect Kraft Heinz to narrow the gap versus branded? Or how do you see those metrics moving from here?

    然後我想,根據您今年剩餘時間的計劃以及 24 年的情況,我想您會如何預測這些指標的變化?您預期品牌促銷水準會恢復到歷史水準嗎?您是否預期卡夫亨氏縮小與品牌的差距?或您如何看待這些指標的變化?

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

  • Thanks, Andrew. It's Carlos. Let me first address your point about clarification. What you see in the page, it is about those branded players that do compete with Kraft Heinz.

    謝謝,安德魯。是卡洛斯。首先讓我談談您關於澄清的觀點。您在頁面中看到的是那些與卡夫亨氏競爭的品牌玩家。

  • The second part in terms of how do we think about our promotions as we go forward. First, I will tell you that I'm not going to comment on what other companies may or may not do. But I will tell you is that, one, we're not going back to 2019 levels. We are going to -- at the same time, as we go forward into Q4, we know there is a seasonality to our business. And as we have said earlier, we're going to make sure now as we go into the holiday season, that we make the right investments to support our business.

    第二部分是我們在前進過程中如何考慮我們的促銷活動。首先,我會告訴你,我不會評論其他公司可能會做什麼或不會做什麼。但我要告訴你的是,第一,我們不會回到 2019 年的水準。同時,當我們進入第四季度時,我們知道我們的業務存在季節性。正如我們之前所說,我們現在將確保在進入假期時做出正確的投資來支持我們的業務。

  • Now I'll say that at the same time, we're going to continue with the same level of discipline that we have shown until now to make sure that our investment with the right level of ROI as we go forward.

    現在我要說的是,與此同時,我們將繼續保持迄今為止所表現出的相同水平的紀律,以確保我們的投資在我們前進的過程中具有適當的投資回報率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的彼得‧加爾博。

  • Peter Thomas Galbo - VP & Research Analyst

    Peter Thomas Galbo - VP & Research Analyst

  • I guess just in North America, on the volume piece, there's a fair amount of discussion both in the prepared remarks around kind of meats being a drag this quarter. And you discussed a bit about how you're giving up maybe some volume to maximize profitability and gross margins. But then you also kind of discussed how service levels aren't where you want them to be, particularly in sliced meats, and you're expecting improvement on that going forward.

    我想就在北美,就捲而言,在準備好的評論中,圍繞肉類在本季度的拖累進行了相當多的討論。您討論瞭如何放棄一些銷量以最大限度地提高盈利能力和毛利率。但隨後您也討論了服務水平如何未達到您想要的水平,特別是在切片肉方面,並且您預計未來會有所改善。

  • So I guess the question is just what should we be taking away from those comments? Are you kind of continuing to scale back on volume and focus on the profitability there? Or should we think about a volume share recovery and maybe some headwinds to the margin mix that come with that, particularly as we think about North America volume?

    所以我想問題是我們應該從這些評論中得到什麼?您是否會繼續縮減產量並專注於那裡的盈利能力?或者我們是否應該考慮銷量份額的恢復以及隨之而來的利潤率組合的一些阻力,特別是當我們考慮北美銷售時?

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

  • First of all, I think that -- let me just put into context kind of the volume question that you see in North America. First, I would say is that what you see for us as a company, we continue to improve sequentially from what you saw in Q3 -- I'm sorry, Q2 to now in Q2 -- in Q3. And then, if I look holistically at the company first, you'll see that we continue to drive the things that are working for us.

    首先,我認為——讓我談談你在北美看到的數量問題的背景。首先,我想說的是,您對我們公司的看法是,我們繼續從您在第三季看到的情況繼續改進——對不起,從第二季到現在第二季——第三季。然後,如果我先全面審視公司,您會發現我們將繼續推動對我們有利的事情。

  • We are continuing to grow in Emerging Markets where we're growing volume mix year-over-year now in Q3, that we continue to expand in our Foodservice and that we believe that it continues to drive opportunity as we go forward. And then specifically in the U.S. business, you see how the investment we have made in terms of improving our share of shelf, our investments in marketing, our investing in innovation and our improvement in CFR have continued to improve overall actions.

    我們正在新興市場繼續成長,在第三季度,我們的銷售組合逐年成長,我們繼續擴大我們的餐飲服務,我們相信,隨著我們的前進,它將繼續推動機會。然後,特別是在美國業務中,您會看到我們在提高貨架份額、行銷投資、創新投資和 CFR 改進方面所做的投資如何持續改善整體行動。

  • Now as we think about the total portfolio, there are some places in which we're going to remain focused and disciplined on how we invest back into the business. I think you referred to in our meat business, where we want to make sure that we are not going to be just following unprofitable growth, but that we're going to be rational and disciplined on how we invest in those businesses in order for us to drive the right consumer pull, but at the same time, not sacrificing the overall profitability of the business that we need to maintain.

    現在,當我們考慮整個投資組合時,我們將在某些方面繼續關注並嚴格控制我們如何投資回業務。我想你提到了我們的肉類業務,我們希望確保我們不會僅僅追求無利可圖的增長,但我們將理性和自律地投資這些業務,以便為我們帶來好處。推動正確的消費者拉動,但同時不犧牲我們需要維持的業務的整體獲利能力。

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • I will just add that in our long-term algorithm, volume is important to us. So in our 2%, 3% growth, it comes from a balanced contribution between price and volumes or volumes there, but as Carlos said, we are seeking profitable volume growth. We are not trying to maximize gross percentage margin, we are trying to deliver profitable, sustainable growth, ultimately translating to sustainable EPS growth.

    我只想補充一點,在我們的長期演算法中,交易量對我們來說很重要。因此,在我們 2%、3% 的成長中,它來自於價格和銷售之間的平衡貢獻,但正如卡洛斯所說,我們正在尋求有利可圖的銷售成長。我們並不是試圖最大化毛利率,而是試圖實現獲利、永續成長,最終轉化為可持續的每股盈餘成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John Baumgartner with Mizuho Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的約翰·鮑姆加特納。

  • John Joseph Baumgartner - MD & Senior Consumer Equity Research Analyst

    John Joseph Baumgartner - MD & Senior Consumer Equity Research Analyst

  • Carlos, I just wanted to touch on the meats business again, coming back to Peter's question. You point out it's an energized business, but the category is seeing price competition, private label is gaining share, that was not happening at the outset during COVID, during work from home.

    卡洛斯,我只是想再談談肉類業務,回到彼得的問題。你指出這是一個充滿活力的業務,但該類別正在經歷價格競爭,自有品牌正在獲得份額,而在新冠疫情期間在家工作期間,這種情況在一開始並沒有發生。

  • It just seems as though the ambition to rebuild or maintain profit, it's hard to square that with what looks like a need to reinvest more given the declines. So how do you think about resource allocation, your willingness to continue reinvesting in that business relative to the point where you just say, hey, these assets may be better suited to another owner like what happened with the nuts business. Just curious about your willingness to stick with it given a very tough backdrop in the category.

    似乎重建或維持利潤的雄心壯志,很難與考慮到股價下跌而需要更多再投資的需求相一致。那麼,你如何看待資源分配,你是否願意繼續對該業務進行再投資,相對於你只是說,嘿,這些資產可能更適合另一個所有者,就像堅果業務發生的情況一樣。只是好奇在該類別非常艱難的背景下您是否願意堅持下去。

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

  • Andre, why don't you start here, and I can build.

    安德烈,你為什麼不從這裡開始,我可以建造。

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Sure. So as we have said before, different parts of our portfolio, they have different roles, and these roles might change over time. The role for me right now is to rebuild the profitability which has enrolled at 50% in the last 5 years while continuing to invest in the brands to improve, innovate, so then at some point, this brand can be in a position to grow in a profitable way again.

    當然。正如我們之前所說,我們投資組合的不同部分,它們具有不同的角色,而這些角色可能會隨著時間的推移而改變。我現在的任務是重建過去 5 年 50% 的盈利能力,同時繼續投資於品牌以改進、創新,這樣在某個時候,這個品牌就能夠在又一條盈利途徑。

  • And that's what we're doing. In Q3, for the second quarter in a row, this part of the portfolio, declined mid- to high single digits on the top line but grew mid- to high single digits on the bottom line, not by milking the brand, but by making the type of -- the right type of investment and the right type of actions that are appropriate for this portfolio right now.

    這就是我們正在做的事情。在第三季度,這部分投資組合的營收連續第二個季度下降了中高個位數,但淨利潤卻實現了中高個位數成長,這不是透過擠壓品牌,而是透過目前適合該投資組合的正確投資類型和正確行動類型。

  • For us to be chasing volume with this in an unsustainable way, only through promotion, that's not the game that this -- that we want this brand to play.

    對我們來說,僅透過促銷以不可持續的方式追逐銷量,這不是我們希望這個品牌玩的遊戲。

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

  • The only thing I would add is that even in -- if you think about our cold cut business within our meat business, we have continued to improve our CFR, but that is the one area where we're still not at the right level of service that we want for the year. You'll see that progression. At the same time, as we have improved our service, we have also began to see improvement in our share, too.

    我唯一要補充的是,即使在——如果你考慮一下我們肉類業務中的冷切業務,我們也在繼續提高我們的 CFR,但這是我們仍然沒有達到正確水平的一個領域。我們今年想要的服務。你會看到這個進展。同時,隨著我們改善服務,我們的份額也開始有所提高。

  • So if you look at month to date as well through October, we are seeing that, in fact, our cold cuts business are beginning to gain share. So we are just going to be looking at the category in a very disciplined way to make sure we're doing the right things, as Andre said.

    因此,如果你看看本月至今以及整個十月,我們會發現,事實上,我們的冷盤業務正在開始獲得份額。因此,正如安德烈所說,我們將以非常嚴格的方式審視該類別,以確保我們做正確的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Stephen Powers with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂芬鮑爾斯。

  • Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

    Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

  • I wanted to shift gears, if I could, and talk about the momentum you have in both Foodservice and Emerging Markets and just get your perspective on your confidence that momentum can continue and perhaps how the organizational changes that you announced today internationally might contribute to that momentum as we go forward.

    如果可以的話,我想換個話題,談談你們在餐飲服務和新興市場的勢頭,並了解你們對這種勢頭能夠持續下去的信心的看法,以及你們今天在國際上宣布的組織變革可能會如何對此做出貢獻。我們前進的動力。

  • And also Andre, if you could, if I could tack on a second question, just now that leverage has dipped below that target level of 3x, just wondering how you're starting to think about prioritization of cash going forward. Because the cash generation has been good, I presume cash will build and just think about how you're thinking about allocating that cash going forward.

    還有安德烈,如果可以的話,如果我可以解決第二個問題,現在槓桿率已經降至 3 倍的目標水平以下,只是想知道您如何開始考慮未來現金的優先順序。由於現金生成情況良好,我認為現金將會增加,只需考慮您未來如何分配現金。

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

  • Thank you for the question, Stephen. Andre, why don't you comment on the capital allocation, then I'll talk about Foodservice and Emerging Markets.

    謝謝你的提問,史蒂芬。安德烈,你為什麼不對資本配置發表評論,然後我會談談餐飲服務和新興市場。

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Sure. So on capital allocation, our priorities remain unchanged. That means continue to fund our very competitive dividend, maintain investment grade and prioritizing organic growth like we have been consistently doing during the past 3, 4 years.

    當然。因此,在資本配置方面,我們的優先事項保持不變。這意味著繼續為我們極具競爭力的股息提供資金,維持投資等級並優先考慮有機成長,就像我們在過去三、四年中一直在做的那樣。

  • We are very proud that we were able to get to this level of leverage 1 year ahead of our initial expectation, and that's very important. That shows that the business is strong and the organization is focused on delivering sustainable performance not only on the EBITDA side, but also in cash conversion, which is a remarkable improvement of this organization. And now I think that puts us in a very good situation to assess options to deploy this cash, and we are looking at those.

    我們非常自豪能夠比我們最初的預期提前一年達到這一槓桿水平,這非常重要。這表明該公司業務強勁,該組織不僅專注於提供可持續的績效,不僅在 EBITDA 方面,而且在現金轉換方面,這是該組織的顯著進步。現在我認為這使我們處於一個非常好的境地來評估部署這筆現金的選擇,我們正在考慮這些選擇。

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

  • Thanks, Andre. Let me comment first on Foodservice. I feel very optimistic about our plans in Foodservice. And we have really been working on building a foundation for the future. And if you think about the way we are thinking about building our business in basically 3 areas, we continue to make the investments in our chef-led models and that's driving positive performance for us.

    謝謝,安德烈。讓我先評論一下餐飲服務。我對我們在餐飲服務方面的計劃感到非常樂觀。我們確實一直在努力為未來奠定基礎。如果你考慮我們在基本上三個領域建立業務的方式,我們將繼續對廚師主導的模式進行投資,這為我們帶來了積極的業績。

  • We also are making sure we are competing in more attractive and better margin channels, things like our independent and noncommercial channels versus traditional where we have been limited to. And then lastly, we are seeing much more powerful innovation that allows us to lever the technology investments we have made and bring those into the product forefront, whether that is in things like our HEINZ Remix machines and how that actually creates an opportunity for us to separate ourselves for the future.

    我們也確保我們在更具吸引力和利潤率更高的管道中競爭,例如我們的獨立和非商業管道與我們受到限制的傳統管道。最後,我們看到了更強大的創新,使我們能夠利用我們所做的技術投資並將其帶入產品的最前沿,無論是在我們的 HEINZ Remix 機器等方面,還是這實際上為我們創造了機會為了未來,我們分開吧。

  • Now if you look at the full year for Foodservice, our expectation is probably to grow somewhere in the low to mid double digits versus last year. And we are -- I will point out that we're gaining share too, in both North America and the international zone. And then let me just make sure also that it's clear that if we think about our long-term algorithm, Foodservice is expected to grow about 5%, and we're going to be well above that level in 2023.

    現在,如果你看看全年的餐飲服務,我們的預期可能是比去年低至中兩位數的成長。我要指出的是,我們在北美和國際地區的份額也在增加。然後讓我確認一下,如果我們考慮我們的長期演算法,餐飲服務預計將成長約 5%,並且到 2023 年我們將遠高於該水準。

  • Now if I switch over to our Emerging Markets, the one great thing that we also have been investing behind in Emerging Markets is kind of the discipline of our go-to-market model. And for us, the reason we feel so confident is because there is a data-driven go-to-market model that allows us to drive distribution, that then -- we can then build and press in existing markets and enter new ones. And we have done that several locations.

    現在,如果我轉向我們的新興市場,我們在新興市場投資的一件偉大的事情就是我們的市場進入模式的紀律。對我們來說,我們之所以如此自信,是因為有一種數據驅動的進入市場模式,使我們能夠推動分銷,然後我們就可以建立和推動現有市場並進入新市場。我們已經在多個地點做到了這一點。

  • In fact, we are on track to implement our model in 90% of Emerging Markets by the end of this year. And just to remind you, in things like -- in the first phase of building distribution, we would build the infrastructure, and then we go into the full structure in order to truly take advantage of our emerging business.

    事實上,我們預計在今年年底前在 90% 的新興市場實施我們的模式。只是提醒您,在建立分銷的第一階段,我們將建立基礎設施,然後我們進入完整的結構,以便真正利用我們的新興業務。

  • I think in Emerging Markets, I would just add the comment that in Q3, we saw a temporary headwind as we think about particularly in Asia, where we have a business in Indonesia that is most surrounding around Ramadan season and where we saw some travel shifting -- spending shifting from travel, away from gifting, and we have a gifting business in Indonesia. So that was that was a temporary thing. But as we think about the year ahead, we believe that we'll get back to the right levels of performance also in our Indonesia business. Thanks for the question.

    我認為在新興市場,我只想補充一點,在第三季度,我們看到了暫時的逆風,特別是在亞洲,我們在印尼有一家業務,該地區主要圍繞齋月季節,我們看到一些旅行發生了變化-支出從旅行、送禮轉向,我們在印尼有送禮業務。所以那是暫時的事情。但當我們思考未來的一年時,我們相信我們的印尼業務也將恢復到適當的業績水平。謝謝你的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

  • Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

    Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

  • Just a quick one. In your slide presentation, from the prior quarter 2Q, you mentioned that you were expecting positive volume growth in 2024. I may have missed it, but did you reiterate that today in either of the slides or any of your commentary?

    只是快一點。在您上一季第二季的幻燈片簡報中,您提到預計 2024 年銷量將實現正成長。我可能沒有註意到,但您今天在幻燈片或任何評論中重申了這一點嗎?

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Yes, we did. And that's the case. Nothing changes. So nothing changed in terms of volume expectations as Carlos said. So we said, and it happened that volume would improve in Q3 sequentially to Q2, and it did. It improved in Q4 versus Q3. And at some point in 2024, the volumes will turn positive.

    是的我們做了。情況就是這樣。沒有什麼變化。因此,正如卡洛斯所說,銷量預期沒有任何變化。所以我們說,第三季的銷售恰好會比第二季有所改善,而且確實如此。與第三季相比,第四季有所改善。到 2024 年的某個時候,銷量將轉為正值。

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

  • In fact, I think everything that we're seeing right now in the market, in our actions are working. And it just gives us more confidence as we think about our 2024 plans.

    事實上,我認為我們現在在市場上、在我們的行動中看到的一切都在發揮作用。當我們思考 2024 年計畫時,這讓我們更有信心。

  • Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

    Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

  • Sorry, can I just quickly clarify that? I think people interpreted the commentary about positive volume about -- as net throughout 2024, it will be positive. But I think the comment that was just made was at some point in 2024, it will turn positive. I guess I'm curious, do you expect at the end of the year, your total 2024 volume to be positive? I just wanted to get a sense that people aren't overmodeling the year.

    抱歉,我可以快速澄清一下嗎?我認為人們將有關積極交易量的評論解讀為 2024 年淨交易量將是正面的。但我認為剛剛發表的評論在 2024 年的某個時候,將會變得積極。我想我很好奇,您預計到今年年底,2024 年的總銷售量會是正值嗎?我只是想知道人們並沒有過度塑造這一年。

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • I'm not going to give guidance in 2024 right now. What I just said is what you have been saying all along.

    我現在不會在 2024 年提供指導。我剛才說的就是你一直在說的話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Lavery 和 Piper Sandler。

  • Michael Scott Lavery - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Michael Scott Lavery - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I know we've covered maybe a little bit just on the volume and how to think about its role in the portfolio side, but I want to just come back to one specific piece. You've talked about your approach and being disciplined and rational. But in your prepared remarks too, you also specifically said that in cold cuts, you're investing to hit the right price points. Can you just maybe unpack that a little bit and reconcile how those two go together and what exactly you mean by those investments on the price side?

    我知道我們可能已經討論了一些關於數量以及如何思考其在投資組合方面的作用的內容,但我想回到一個具體的部分。您已經談到了您的方法以及紀律和理性。但在您準備好的發言中,您也特別提到,在冷切方面,您正在投資以達到正確的價格點。您能否稍微解開一下這個問題,並協調這兩者如何結合在一起,以及您所說的價格方面的投資到底意味著什麼?

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

  • Yes. Good question. Happy to clarify, Michael. What I would say is that we need to make sure that we are responding to the moments in which consumers are going to be looking for the right solutions for whether it's at the holiday seasons or all the points throughout the year. And as we go into Q4, for example, we'll make sure that we're making the right investments. However, we will be doing that with the right level of discipline to make sure we drive the right returns on that investment.

    是的。好問題。很高興澄清,邁克爾。我想說的是,我們需要確保我們能夠應對消費者尋求正確解決方案的時刻,無論是在假期季節還是全年的所有時間點。例如,當我們進入第四季時,我們將確保做出正確的投資。然而,我們將以適當的紀律來做到這一點,以確保我們為該投資帶來正確的回報。

  • So the idea is that we have simply -- like we stated earlier, we are not going to just be chasing volume, we're going to be looking for what is the way for us to drive profitable volume in a way that combines our ability to continue to build our businesses through the right investments in marketing and using the full array of revenue management tools in order for us to be able to drive the right efficiency and effectiveness of our investments.

    所以我們的想法很簡單——就像我們之前所說的那樣,我們不會只是追逐銷量,我們將尋找一種結合我們能力的方式來推動盈利量的方法通過正確的營銷投資和使用全套收入管理工具繼續發展我們的業務,以便我們能夠提高投資的正確效率和有效性。

  • Michael Scott Lavery - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Michael Scott Lavery - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • And so some of what you're saying would be the depth of the promotion is part of how you want to make the investments on price points, but the discipline is the depth of that and not to push it too hard, would that be a right interpretation?

    因此,您所說的一些內容是促銷的深度是您希望如何在價格點上進行投資的一部分,但紀律是促銷的深度,而不是推動得太過激烈,這會是一個嗎?正確的解釋?

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

  • I think that would be one of the things that you could say. But I think on top of that, if you think about the full array of our revenue management tools, pricing, price architecture, other tools at our disposal that allows us to actually think about what is the right investments in order for us to maintain the level of -- improving level of profitability that we have seen deteriorate over the last few years.

    我認為這將是你可以說的事情之一。但我認為最重要的是,如果你考慮我們的全套收入管理工具、定價、價格架構以及我們可以使用的其他工具,這些工具使我們能夠真正思考什麼是正確的投資,以便我們可以維持過去幾年我們看到獲利水準不斷惡化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

  • Jason M. English - VP

    Jason M. English - VP

  • So I guess congrats are in order. Congrats, Miguel, for a good run and the improvements you've driven while at the helm of the company. And congrats, Carlos, in the upcoming promotion and responsibility.

    所以我想恭喜你。恭喜米格爾,在您掌管公司期間取得了良好的經營績效和所推動的進步。祝賀卡洛斯即將升職並承擔責任。

  • So on that topic, I guess the starting-off question is, what do you expect to do different? Should we be bracing and expecting any strategic shifts? Or given that you've been an architect of many of the plans that have been in place, is this going to be sort of business as usual?

    所以在這個主題上,我想首先的問題是,你期望做些什麼不同的事情?我們是否應該做好準備並期待任何策略轉變?或者考慮到您是許多已實施計劃的架構師,這會像往常一樣嗎?

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

  • First of all, Jason, thank you for the kind words, and I'm certainly very much humble and excited about the opportunity ahead for me and for the company.

    首先,傑森,謝謝您的客氣話,我對我和公司面臨的機會感到非常謙虛和興奮。

  • What I would say is that, as you pointed out, I've been sitting next to Miguel for the last almost 4 years now. And I think a number of things that we have done as a company, we certainly have done together. And strategically, I think I am certainly committed to the 3 growth pillars that we have for going forward that is -- and think about also how do we continue to drive our expansion in Emerging Markets, how do we continue to see Foodservice as a great growth for us and then the growth platforms within our U.S. business.

    我想說的是,正如您所指出的,過去近四年來我一直坐在米格爾旁邊。我認為我們作為一家公司所做的許多事情都是我們共同完成的。從策略上講,我認為我肯定致力於我們未來發展的三個成長支柱,即 - 並思考我們如何繼續推動我們在新興市場的擴張,我們如何繼續將餐飲服務視為我們的成長以及我們美國業務的成長平台。

  • At the same time, you also probably read some of the changes we're making in our structure in order to actually help us accelerate some of those things that we have done. For me, one of the critical aspects of this time when I have been transitioning as -- and coming to the new role in January, has been listening to the organization and making sure we have the clarity of our strategy. And our structure is going to follow that clarity.

    同時,您可能也閱讀了我們在結構中所做的一些更改,以便真正幫助我們加速我們已經完成的一些事情。對我來說,當我過渡並在一月份擔任新角色時,關鍵的方面之一就是傾聽組織的意見並確保我們的策略清晰。我們的結構將遵循這種清晰性。

  • So some of the things you see in terms of us being able to have a bit of breaking down the international zone which has worked in the past well for us, but now as we go into a new way of us growing, allows us to be a little more focused on those Emerging Markets in which we're going to make some additional investments. That, I think, is part of us thinking differently about how we bring that structure and so that strategy to life in our structure.

    因此,你看到的一些事情是,我們能夠在一定程度上打破國際區域,這在過去對我們來說很有效,但現在,隨著我們進入一種新的成長方式,使我們能夠更加關注我們將進行一些額外投資的新興市場。我認為,這是我們對如何將這種結構以及策略在我們的結構中付諸實踐的不同思考的一部分。

  • So that's I think some of the things that you're going to see, is what are the places that -- with the lens of the jobs to be done for the strategy of the company, that we can maybe arrange certain things where we can truly leverage the scale of the company, the scale that we have been investing behind our technology and our marketing capabilities and to deploy them against the 3 pillars strategically that I'm very much aligned with.

    所以我認為你會看到一些事情,從公司策略的角度來看,我們也許可以安排某些事情。真正利用公司的規模、我們一直在技術和行銷能力方面投資的規模,並根據我非常贊同的三大戰略支柱進行部署。

  • Jason M. English - VP

    Jason M. English - VP

  • And should we expect inorganic solutions to come into the fold a little bit more so now that your balance sheet is in a better situation?

    既然您的資產負債表狀況更好,我們是否應該期望無機解決方案更多地發揮作用?

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

  • As Andre said earlier, we continue to look at opportunities, but I would say that's something that is part of our ongoing thoughts about how do we continue to see the active view of our portfolio. But there's nothing today that I would say that we will be announcing. Andre, anything else you would add?

    正如安德烈早些時候所說,我們繼續尋找機會,但我想說,這是我們持續思考如何繼續看到我們的投資組合的積極觀點的一部分。但今天我不會說我們會宣布什麼。安德烈,您還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • No, I think that's consistent with what we have said before. I think our priority is organic business and M&A. If it happens, it has to help us accelerate our organic strategy, essentially be fully consistent, like we have done less for acquisitions or sales elevation [and pre-opting] in Emerging Markets and to be accretive to our top line, bolt-on on top of acquisitions. That's what we are focusing on.

    不,我認為這與我們之前所說的一致。我認為我們的首要任務是有機業務和併購。如果發生這種情況,它必須幫助我們加速我們的有機策略,本質上是完全一致的,就像我們在新興市場的收購或銷售提升[和預先選擇]方面做得較少,並增加我們的營收,補充在收購之上。這就是我們關注的重點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Matt Smith with Stifel.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Matt Smith。

  • Matthew Edward Smith - Associate Analyst

    Matthew Edward Smith - Associate Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a question. Your productivity savings have been very strong this year, and you already increased your target for the year. Those have, in part, been used to have a stepped-up level of investment behind marketing, R&D and innovation. But as we look forward, can you sustain this level of incremental savings into 2024? Or should we expect a return to the target of $500 million?

    我想問一個問題。今年您的生產力節省非常強勁,並且您已經提高了今年的目標。這些措施在一定程度上被用來提高行銷、研發和創新方面的投資水準。但展望未來,您能否將此增量節省水準維持到 2024 年?或者我們應該期待回到 5 億美元的目標?

  • And after this year has stepped up investment, do you believe you're exiting with the appropriate level of investment across the business? Or do you plan to continue to invest in an elevated rate as we look forward?

    今年加強投資力度後,您認為您退出時整個業務的投資水準是否適當?或者您計劃像我們預期的那樣繼續以更高的利率進行投資?

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

  • Maybe, Andre, if you could speak to our efficiency plans?

    也許,安德烈,您能談談我們的效率計畫嗎?

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Sure. So look, at this point, we're still committed to deliver the 3% of COGS of $500 million on a go-forward basis. But as we have said before, our benchmark is really on the 4% level, which we are achieving this year. And you should keep in mind that this year as well, we had a lot of, let's call, gettables from inefficiency that was generated from the pandemic, that's also helping. But we feel good about how our supply chain organization today is operating at completely superior level with very stable service levels and being a lot more forward thinking, which gives us confidence in delivering that 3% that we have talked before.

    當然。因此,目前來看,我們仍然致力於在未來的基礎上交付 5 億美元的 3% 的銷貨成本。但正如我們之前所說,我們的基準實際上是 4% 的水平,這是我們今年實現的目標。你應該記住,今年我們也從大流行造成的低效率中得到了很多,我們可以稱之為,這也是有幫助的。但我們對今天的供應鏈組織在完全卓越的水平上運作、非常穩定的服務水平以及更具前瞻性的思維感到滿意,這讓我們有信心實現我們之前談到的 3%。

  • From an investment standpoint, I think this also has been a great year because we have been able to deliver very solid bottom line growth while really resetting the investment level from the company for the future, which means that I think a lot of the reset has happened. There is still places that we want to invest more. But I think we took advantage of this year to really reset the level of investments to a very good level.

    從投資的角度來看,我認為這也是偉大的一年,因為我們能夠實現非常堅實的底線成長,同時真正重置公司未來的投資水平,這意味著我認為很多重置已經發生了。還有一些地方我們想加大投資。但我認為我們利用今年的機會真正將投資水準調整到了一個非常好的水準。

  • Anne-Marie Megela - VP & Global Head of IR

    Anne-Marie Megela - VP & Global Head of IR

  • Operator, this will be the last question.

    接線員,這是最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our last question comes from Robert Moskow with TD Cowen.

    我們的最後一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Robert Moskow。

  • Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

    Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

  • Can you hear me now? Sorry about that. So this is kind of a what-if question, and maybe you might not want to ask -- answer what-if questions. But we're all watching top line growth kind of decelerate in the U.S., and the U.S. retail is such an important part of your mix.

    你聽得到我嗎?對於那個很抱歉。所以這是一個假設性問題,也許你可能不想問——回答假設性問題。但我們都看到美國的營收成長放緩,而美國零售業是其組合中非常重要的一部分。

  • So I guess my question is, if we're in a scenario where we're kind of in a 0% to 1% kind of sales growth environment next year, just for your categories, what would your philosophy be on an EBITDA basis? Like would you still drive to drop savings to the bottom line to hit the mid-single-digit EBITDA? Or would a slower top-line environment necessitate a slower EBITDA growth kind of target?

    所以我想我的問題是,如果我們明年的銷售成長環境為 0% 到 1%,僅就您的類別而言,您在 EBITDA 基礎上的理念是什麼?您是否仍會努力將儲蓄降到底線以達到中個位數的 EBITDA?或者,較慢的營收環境是否需要較慢的 EBITDA 成長目標?

  • Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

    Andre Maciel - Executive VP & Global CFO

  • Okay. Good morning, Rob, and good to hear back from you. Look, we believe that for us to grow top line in a profitable sustainable way is critical. So if in an event where industry is 0, I think that doesn't change the game that we're trying to play. Because I don't know if you are implying that we will start to go aggressive on promotions to try to get volume through market share in a productive and sustainable way. If that's what you're asking behind your question, that's not the game we're going to play.

    好的。早安,羅布,很高興收到你的回覆。看,我們相信,對我們來說,以可持續盈利的方式成長收入至關重要。因此,如果在工業為0的情況下,我認為這不會改變我們正在嘗試玩的遊戲。因為我不知道您是否在暗示我們將開始積極開展促銷活動,試圖以高效且可持續的方式透過市場份額來獲得銷售。如果這就是您在問題背後提出的問題,那麼這不是我們要玩的遊戲。

  • So I'll just say that our strategy continues to be the same, it's working. And I think we feel that's heading in the right direction. We don't want to make a change in direction because of temporary situations in the industry.

    所以我只想說,我們的策略仍然是一樣的,它正在發揮作用。我認為我們認為這正朝著正確的方向發展。我們不想因為產業的暫時情況而改變方向。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Carlos Abrams-Rivera for any closing remarks.

    謝謝。我現在想將電話轉回給卡洛斯·艾布拉姆斯-裡維拉,請他發表結束語。

  • Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

    Carlos A. Abrams-Rivera - President of Kraft Heinz & President of the North America Zone

  • Thank you. So before we leave here, I just wanted to acknowledge and take a moment to thank Miguel for all the support and trust that he has shown to me personally and for everything he has done for a company as he has built this tremendous and strong foundation.

    謝謝。因此,在我們離開這裡之前,我只想承認並花點時間感謝米格爾個人對我的所有支持和信任,以及他為公司所做的一切,因為他建立了這個巨大而堅實的基礎。

  • I can tell you that today, Kraft Heinz is a much stronger company because in 2019, Miguel Patricio put this company on his back and carried it forward. And I am forever grateful for being part of his team as we all work together to transform Kraft Heinz. And as I take over as the next CEO of Kraft Heinz, I'm proud of where we have been as a company and even more thrilled about where we're going. And thank you all for joining us today.

    我可以告訴你,今天的卡夫亨氏是一家更強大的公司,因為在2019年,米格爾·帕特里西奧把這家公司背在了自己的背上,並將其發揚光大。我永遠感激能成為他團隊的一員,我們共同努力改造卡夫亨氏。當我接任卡夫亨氏下一任執行長時,我對我們公司的發展感到自豪,對我們的發展方向更加興奮。感謝大家今天加入我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。