卡夫亨氏 (KHC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Kraft Heinz Company quarter four 2024 earnings.

早安，歡迎關注卡夫亨氏公司 2024 年第四季財報。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Anne-Marie Megela.

現在我很高興介紹 Anne-Marie Megela。

Thank you, Anne.

謝謝你，安妮。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you, and hello, everyone.

謝謝大家，大家好。

During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations for the future, including items related to our business plans and expectations, strategy, efforts and investments, and related timing and expected impacts.

在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會就我們對未來的期望做出前瞻性陳述，包括與我們的業務計劃和期望、策略、努力和投資以及相關時間和預期影響相關的內容。

These statements are based on how we see things today, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties.

這些陳述基於我們今天的看法，實際結果可能因風險和不確定性而存在重大差異。

Please see the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in today's earnings release, which accompanies this call as well as our most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for more information regarding these risks and uncertainties.

有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱今天的收益報告（隨附於本次電話會議）以及我們最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中包含的警告聲明和風險因素。

Additionally, we may refer to non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude certain items from our financial results reported in accordance with GAAP.

此外，我們可能會參考非公認會計準則財務指標，這些指標從我們根據公認會計準則報告的財務結果中排除某些項目。

Please refer to today's earnings release and the non-GAAP information available on our website at ir.kraftheinzcompany.com under News and Events for a discussion of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP financial measures.

請參閱今天的收益報告和我們網站 ir.kraftheinzcompany.com 上的“新聞和事件”欄目下提供的非 GAAP 信息，了解有關我們的非 GAAP 財務指標以及與可比 GAAP 財務指標的對帳的討論。

I will now hand it over to our Chief Executive Officer, Carlos Abrams-Rivera, for opening comments.

現在我將把發言權交給我們的執行長卡洛斯·艾布拉姆斯·裡維拉 (Carlos Abrams-Rivera)，請他發表開場評論。

Carlos, over to you.

卡洛斯，交給你了。

Well, thank you, Anne-Marie.

好吧，謝謝你，安妮瑪麗。

And thanks, everyone, for joining us today.

感謝大家今天的參與。

I want to thank the Kraft Heinz team for their hard work and dedication this past year.

我要感謝卡夫亨氏團隊過去一年的辛勤工作和奉獻。

Even though it was a tough year, we stayed focused on building for the future and improving profit margins while boosting the free cash flow.

儘管這是艱難的一年，我們仍然專注於建立未來、提高利潤率並增加自由現金流。

We do know that the economic landscape is rough, but we are proud that we returned $2.7 billion to our stockholders through share buybacks and dividends, which provide the highest yield in the food industry.

我們確實知道經濟形勢嚴峻，但我們很自豪地透過股票回購和股息向我們的股東返還了 27 億美元，這為食品業帶來了最高的收益。

Looking ahead to 2025, we are seeing key successes that aren't yet showing up in our financials, and we are expecting to see improving top line throughout the year while preserving profitability.

展望 2025 年，我們將看到尚未在財務狀況中體現的關鍵成功，並且我們預計全年營收將在保持盈利能力的同時有所改善。

Frankly, I'm proud of the progress the teams are driving and confident that our strategy will yield long-term returns to our shareholders.

坦白說，我為團隊所取得的進步感到自豪，並相信我們的策略將為股東帶來長期回報。

Now with that, today, I have Andre joining me.

今天，安德烈 (Andre) 也加入我的行列。

So let's open for the call for the Q&A.

現在讓我們開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

（操作員指示）巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Great, thank you so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Carlos, you mentioned a number of times in the prepared remarks the plan to be disciplined in how you approach reinvestment this year, specifically calling out your expectation for some gross margin expansion and flat price in '25 despite the stated plan to invest in price in some key areas.

卡洛斯，您在準備好的評論中多次提到，您計劃在今年如何嚴格對待再投資，特別是提到儘管您計劃在一些關鍵領域進行價格投資，但您預計 2025 年毛利率會有所擴大，價格會持平。

I guess what I'm hearing most from investors this morning is that they're really wondering if this outlook provides enough room to do what's needed this year to get the key brands back into volume growth.

我想，今天早上我從投資者那裡聽到最多的話是，他們真的想知道這種前景是否提供了足夠的空間來採取今年所需的行動，以使主要品牌重新實現銷量增長。

So I guess, my question is what gives you the confidence that this plan is accounting for an adequate level of investment given sort of current market share trends?

所以我想問的是，考慮到目前的市佔率趨勢，是什麼讓您有信心這個計畫能帶來足夠的投資水準？

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, Andrew.

謝謝，安德魯。

I think, first of all, I guess, let me put into context of the margin expansion.

我認為，首先，讓我來談談利潤率擴大的背景。

If you think about 2024, we increased our margin by 100 bps.

如果你想想2024年，我們的利潤率就提高了100個基點。

When you look at the way we're seeing 2025, it's somewhere between flat to 20 bps.

當您展望2025年時，它將位於持平至20個基點之間。

So while, yes, an expansion certainly is most reduced than we have had in the past.

是的，儘管擴張幅度肯定比過去降低。

And if I think about now our plan and what gives me comfort, let me just highlight a couple of things.

如果我現在考慮我們的計劃以及什麼能讓我感到安慰，讓我只強調幾件事。

First, if you think about our growth pillars, we actually have a headstart going into this year and let me break it down in each of the growth pillars.

首先，如果你考慮我們的成長支柱，我們實際上在今年已經領先一步，讓我逐一分解每個成長支柱。

In Away From Home, 75% of new customer wins are already locked in.

在客場比賽中，75% 的新客戶已經確定。

That's about 40% of a year-over-year incremental growth in our Away From Home business.

這約占我們戶外業務年增的 40%。

Now in Emerging Markets, we are building on the 17% distribution increase with new 40,000 additional points planned in 2025 that we have already mapped out and making sure that our teams are clear where they're going to be able to secure those.

現在，在新興市場，我們正在以 17% 的分銷成長為基礎，計劃在 2025 年新增 40,000 個積分，我們已經制定了計劃，並確保我們的團隊清楚他們將在哪裡能夠獲得這些積分。

And then frankly, in North America Retail and the rest of the business, what you see is that 75% of the 2025 innovation pipeline is already locked in.

坦白說，在北美零售業和其他產業，你會看到 75% 的 2025 年創新管道已經鎖定。

And on top of that, we also are leveraging our Brand Growth System that we have proven through the pilots that we did in 2024.

除此之外，我們還在利用我們的品牌成長系統，該系統已透過 2024 年的試點得到驗證。

So in each of our pillars, we have things going on really into 2025 that is about us continuing versus completely something new.

因此，在我們的每個支柱中，我們都會真正地將事情推進到 2025 年，這對我們來說是繼續前進，而不是完全創新。

And at the same time, and you mentioned this in your question, we are investing in certain places. We are investing in price, we are investing in product, and we are investing in marketing.

同時，正如您在問題中提到的，我們正在某些地方進行投資。我們投資價格，我們投資產品，我們投資行銷。

We're making sure we're prioritizing those brands that we know that we can benefit from having the Brand Growth System insights.

我們確保優先考慮那些我們知道可以從品牌成長系統洞察中受益的品牌。

We are investing in technology-led solutions that are actually helping us drive the efficiencies that leads to improved margins.

我們正在投資技術主導的解決方案，這些解決方案實際上正在幫助我們提高效率，從而提高利潤率。

And then lastly, we continue to ship more marketing dollars towards consumer-facing marketing as we go into 2025.

最後，隨著 2025 年的到來，我們將繼續向面向消費者的行銷投入更多的行銷資金。

So again, those are -- that's the way I kind of see it is it gives an opportunity for us to expand in a modest way of margins, but at the same time, coming into the year with things that we have built in 2024 that now we can still see reaping benefits in 2025 as long with investments specifically in price, products, and marketing.

所以，我再次這樣認為，這為我們提供了適度擴大利潤的機會，但同時，進入 2024 年，我們在 2025 年打造的產品只要在價格、產品和營銷方面進行專門投資，我們仍然可以看到在 2025 年獲得收益。

I'll just add to that, Andrew.

我只想補充一點，安德魯。

So I will add to that when we think about our top-line improvement, as Carlos said, it does not only come from price.

因此，我要補充一點，當我們考慮我們的營業收入的成長時，正如卡洛斯所說，這不僅僅來自於價格。

It comes also from lapping some of the challenges we faced last year and also comes from other product enhancements that we have been deploying since the second half of last year.

它也來自於我們去年面臨的一些挑戰，也來自於我們自去年下半年以來一直在部署的其他產品增強。

When I think about the gross margin, we do expect another year of efficiencies higher than inflation.

當我考慮毛利率時，我們確實預計明年的效率將高於通膨率。

And we are going to price the inflation linked to commodity categories, coffee being one example, like we have done historically.

我們將根據商品類別對通貨膨脹進行定價，而咖啡就是其中一個例子，就像我們過去所做的那樣。

So there is some price embedded into the plan in commodities and Emerging Markets.

因此，該計劃中包含了大宗商品和新興市場的一些價格。

So the combination of efficiencies ahead of inflation, price in Emerging Markets and commodities give us some room to be investing more in price or trades in the places where it makes the most sense.

因此，通膨之前的效率、新興市場和大宗商品的價格相結合，為我們提供了在最合理的領域進行更多價格或交易投資的空間。

Great, thanks so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

I appreciate the color.

我很欣賞這個顏色。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

美國銀行的彼得‧加爾博 (Peter Galbo)。

Good morning, Carlos and Andre.

早安，卡洛斯和安德烈。

Thank you, guys, for the question.

謝謝大家提出這個問題。

I wanted to ask about the top line and the pillars maybe in a slightly different way.

我想以稍微不同的方式詢問頂線和支柱。

Just within the organic sales guidance for '25, Andre, how are you thinking about the growth rates for each, Accelerate, Protect, and Balance, within that organic sales guidance?

僅在'25 年的有機銷售指導中，安德烈，您如何考慮在有機銷售指導中加速、保護和平衡每個領域的增長率？

And then the part B to that question, Carlos, I think a year ago, you kind of gave us market growth rates for each of those, Accelerate, Protect, and Balance, how you see the market growth for '25 comparing to those targets you gave us a year ago.

然後是該問題的 B 部分，卡洛斯，我想在一年前，您給了我們加速、保護和平衡每個領域的市場增長率，與您一年前給我們的目標相比，您認為 25 年的市場增長如何。

So thanks for the color on [those pillars].

所以感謝[那些柱子]的色彩。

I can start.

我可以開始了。

Good morning.

早安.

So I think about the pillars of growth.

所以我思考的是成長的支柱。

First, Emerging Markets, we will see gradual improvements building from Q4 in all the quarters, and we do expect to exit '25 at double-digit growth.

首先，在新興市場，我們將看到從第四季開始各季度的逐步改善，我們預計到2025年將實現兩位數的成長。

And Away From Home, we do expect some slight improvement in Q1 to flat to Q4 but then building from the base gradually throughout the rest of the year and probably exiting around the mid-single-digit territory.

而對於客場表現，我們確實預計第一季會略有改善，到第四季度會持平，但隨後將在今年剩餘時間內從基礎水平逐漸提升，並可能退出個位數中段區域。

So it's still below algo, but a good improvement versus 2024.

因此，它仍然低於演算法，但與 2024 年相比有了很大的改進。

And inside the Accelerate platforms in the US, we do expect elongated recoveries, as we have said before.

正如我們之前所說的那樣，在美國 Accelerate 平台內部，我們確實預計復甦將會持續很長時間。

And most of the US improvement in trends in Retail comes from Accelerate.

美國零售業趨勢的改善大部分來自於加速。

So that's where we are investing most of the price.

所以這就是我們投資大部分資金的地方。

That's where we are investing a lot of our product enhancements.

這就是我們投入大量資金進行產品改進的地方。

So that's where we're going to see -- you should see a sharper improvement again throughout the year. Not as much in Q1 for the reasons I already mentioned before.

所以我們將會看到——你應該會在全年再次看到更顯著的改善。由於我之前提到的原因，第一季的情況並不那麼多。

I think investments get more concentrated from Easter, and also there is the Easter effect between Q1 and Q2.

我認為從復活節開始投資會更加集中，而且第一季和第二季之間還存在復活節效應。

But at the end of the year, you should see Accelerate being the one driving most of the improvement in the US.

但到今年年底，你會看到 Accelerate 成為推動美國大部分進步的動力。

Yeah, what I would add is I think we all can agree that testing wins battles, but strategies win wars.

是的，我想補充的是，我認為我們都同意，測試可以贏得戰鬥，但策略可以贏得戰爭。

And our strategy hasn't changed.

我們的策略沒有改變。

We have not only continued to drive resources and prioritizing our Accelerate platforms but also making sure that a year later, we continue to live onto the roles of each of those particular categories.

我們不僅繼續投入資源、優先考慮我們的加速平台，而且還確保一年後我們能夠繼續發揮每個特定類別的作用。

So I feel great about the fact that we see kind of how our balanced portfolio continues to live into the role of making sure they're contributing with the right margins, at the same time, making sure that they are bringing renovation and innovation into the categories to make sure they're relevant with consumers.

因此，我很高興看到我們平衡的投資組合繼續發揮作用，確保他們以正確的利潤做出貢獻，同時確保他們為各個類別帶來革新和創新，以確保它們與消費者相關。

But again, our strategies haven't changed. And any one year it's not going to make us change that.

但我們的策略沒有改變。無論哪一年，我們都不會改變這一點。

I think that we -- as we stand here, I'll tell you, I feel even more confident that we have this right strategy for us to deliver our long-term algorithms over the long term.

我認為，當我們站在這裡時，我會告訴你們，我更有信心，我們擁有正確的策略，能夠長期實現我們的長期演算法。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John Baumgartner, Mizuho Securities.

瑞穗證券的約翰‧鮑姆加特納 (John Baumgartner)。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I wanted to ask about the marketplace activities in the US and the market share softness.

我想詢問一下美國市場的活動和市場份額的疲軟。

As you've reduced the unprofitable trade, which is net positive for margins, are you getting a sense that maybe your consumers have become a bit more accustomed or trained to buy on deals a bit more for your -- were you reinvesting elsewhere, whether it's in marketing or display?

由於你們減少了無利可圖的交易，而這對利潤來說是淨收益，你們是否感覺到，也許你們的消費者已經變得更加習慣或訓練有素，願意在交易中購買更多的商品——你們是否在其他地方進行再投資，無論是在營銷還是展示方面？

The lifts on that are just sort of insufficient to counter the volume drag.

其上的升力不足以抵銷體積阻力。

I'm just curious if maybe you're making these changes to promo is a bit more painful upfront than you had anticipated with the elasticity to the consumer?

我只是好奇，您是否正在對促銷活動進行這些改變，這對消費者的彈性來說，在前期會比您預期的更痛苦一些？

As we said throughout the last year, I think not all our promotions are working the same as they used to.

正如我們去年所說的那樣，我認為我們的促銷活動並非都像以前一樣有效。

We do believe that base volume has also a significant implication on the size of lift that we observe.

我們確實相信，基底體積對於我們觀察到的升力大小也有重要影響。

So volume is an area that you're paying too much attention to, especially, again, a lot of the product enhancements should help that base, which should give us a stronger starting point for the lift to come up.

因此，銷售量是一個你需要過度關注的領域，尤其是，許多產品的增強應該會有助於這個基礎，這應該會為我們未來的提升提供一個更強大的起點。

There are places where we are contemplating as well base price changes instead of simply a promotion.

有些地方我們正在考慮改變基本價格，而不僅僅是進行促銷。

So there is a discussion in some categories.

因此在某些類別中存在討論。

It might make more sense to one versus the other.

對其中一者而言這可能更有意義。

And on promotions, again, we have seen typically higher frequencies working better, not necessarily deeper discounts.

在促銷方面，我們再次發現，通常頻率越高，效果越好，而折扣並不一定是越大。

You're going to see some of that reflected as we head into next year.

當我們進入明年時，您會看到其中的一些反映。

The only thing I would add -- this is Carlos.

我唯一想補充的是──這是卡洛斯。

What we or the things that we continue to see is consumers increasing the number of locations in which they buy the food.

我們不斷看到的是消費者購買食品的地點數量不斷增加。

So we are seeing smaller size of baskets per trip but an increase in the number of trips.

因此，我們看到每次出遊的購物籃容量變小了，但出遊次數卻增加了。

So for us, it's also important not just to make sure that we have the right price, but that we also have right distribution in different channels in the US, which is why our expansion in dollar channels, club channels where we actually are seeing growth as well too.

因此對我們來說，重要的不僅是確保我們有正確的價格，而且還要確保我們在美國不同管道有正確的分銷，這就是我們在美元管道和俱樂部管道擴張的原因，我們實際上也看到了成長。

So for us, it's making sure that, again, we have that combination on where the consumers are shopping at the right price point for us to make sure that we are attracting the purchases for consumers in the moment they need it.

因此對我們來說，我們需要再次確保，消費者在合適的價位上購物，從而確保能夠在消費者需要的時候吸引他們的購買。

Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

Hi.

你好。

I wanted to dig in a little bit on the increase in your tax rate, if I could, into '25.

如果可以的話，我想深入探討 25 年稅率的增加。

We've heard from a number of multi-national food companies and beverage companies in the last couple of weeks.

過去幾週，我們聽取了許多跨國食品公司和飲料公司的消息。

I don't think any of them have really talked about quite the increase in tax that you're about to experience.

我認為他們中沒有人真正談論過你們即將經歷的稅收大幅增加。

I didn't know if there's anything unique in how you had previously considered tax in some of these other countries that we should consider or if there's anything you know about that's slightly different in how you approach the way you think about tax rate and so forth with the understanding that, of course, your tax -- your cash tax rate isn't going up quite as much.

我不知道您以前在考慮其他國家的稅收時是否有一些獨特之處值得我們考慮，或者您是否知道在考慮稅率等方面有什麼不同，當然，您的現金稅率不會上漲那麼多。

So I just wanted to get a little bit of color there.

所以我只是想在那裡得到一點色彩。

It just seems a little bit more unique to Kraft than what we might have expected given the size of the announcement.

從公告的規模來看，這對卡夫來說似乎比我們預期的更獨特。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Look, I think companies have different strategies when it comes to taxes.

看，我認為公司在稅收方面有不同的策略。

So it's not easy for me comment on what others have.

所以我很難對別人所做的事情做出評論。

We did have a more competitive tax rate in the P&L compared to other peers.

與其他同業相比，我們的損益表中的稅率確實更具競爭力。

You can see that very clearly.

您可以清楚地看到這一點。

We had to record December -- in Q4 a $2.4 billion tax benefit in the P&L, in net income this quarter, and that's linked to a transfer we did in a certain business operation.

我們必須在 12 月記錄——第四季度的損益表中有 24 億美元的稅收優惠，即本季度的淨收入，這與我們在某項業務運營中進行的轉移有關。

And that was part of the efforts to reduce the cash impact of several countries enacting the global minimum tax regulation.

這是幾個國家頒布全球最低稅率規定以減少現金影響的努力的一部分。

So we did have this relevant benefit in the P&L this year.

因此，我們今年的損益表中確實有這筆相關收益。

But as a consequence, the tax rate in the P&L will have a 500 bps increase starting '25.

但結果是，從25年開始，損益表中的稅率將增加 500 個基點。

On the flip side, a $2.4 billion P&L gain will translate into approximately $120 million cash gains per year for the next 20 years, which makes the impact in our cash tax rate, which ultimately is the one that I'm most interested at being about 200 to 300 bps, okay?

另一方面，24 億美元的損益收益將轉化為未來 20 年每年約 1.2 億美元的現金收益，這將對我們的現金稅率產生影響，而這最終是我最感興趣的，約為 200 到 300 個基點，好嗎？

So you will see this is one of the reasons, not the only, why also our cash conversion is expected to be around 95% into '25.

所以您會發現這是原因之一，但不是唯一的原因，為什麼我們的現金轉換率預計在25年達到95％左右。

Leah Jordan, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的利亞喬丹 (Leah Jordan)。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I wanted to ask about Lunchables.

我想問有關 Lunchables 的情況。

Just seeing if you could provide an update on how you see the recovery in that business.

我想知道您是否可以提供有關該業務復甦的最新情況。

I know you had a supplier issue in the fourth quarter.

我知道你們在第四季遇到了供應商問題。

It seemed like it was going to be resolved in 1Q, but the January data does still look a bit soft.

看起來這個問題將在第一季解決，但一月份的數據看起來仍然有點疲軟。

So how should we think about the improvement from here?

那我們該如何思考未來的改進呢？

Is it more just leading price adjustments, or is it more of a step up in innovation as you're planning?

這是否只是領先的價格調整，還是如您所計劃的那樣，是創新的一個進步？

And then just any color on the competition you're seeing in the category from private label and smaller brands?

那麼，您在自有品牌和小品牌的同類競爭中看到了什麼顏色的競爭？

Thank you for the question.

感謝您的提問。

First, I would say is that the supplier ingredient issue that we faced in Q4 still lingers through Q1.

首先，我想說的是，我們在第四季面臨的供應商成分問題仍然存在於第一季。

We will have that -- we will exit Q1 in a much better location in terms of service.

我們將實現這一點——就服務而言，我們將以更好的位置退出第一季。

So I think that you still see as we see the data in January.

因此我認為您仍然會看到我們在一月份看到的數據。

But again, as we go through the quarter, that will improve significantly.

但隨著本季的到來，情況將會顯著改善。

Now in terms of the overall category, what I'll say is our focus has been how do we continue to invest in the business that we believe can be a great source of growth for us as a company?

現在就整體類別而言，我想說的是，我們的重點是如何繼續投資我們認為可以成為公司巨大成長源的業務？

And I'm proud of the fact that the team have been looking at using our Brand Growth System in looking at the places that actually can solve different pain points for consumers.

我很自豪的是，團隊一直在研究使用我們的品牌成長系統來尋找真正能夠解決消費者不同痛點的地方。

So you'll see as we go in through the rest of the first half a product that is much improved with better quality, better ingredients, and us continue to bring different innovation and marketing to our Lunchables business.

因此，隨著我們進入上半年的剩餘時間，您會看到產品有了很大的改進，品質更好，成分更好，並且我們繼續為 Lunchables 業務帶來不同的創新和行銷。

So I think what you see right now, don't think of that as a sign of how the year is going to be, but you'll see that still there's a lingering effect of that Q4.

因此我認為，你現在看到的情況，不能將其視為今年情況的預兆，但你會看到，第四季的影響仍然會持續。

Yeah, if you look at the sellout, December and January, for example, for Lunchables, there are four SKUs in particular that are linked to the upstream supplier issue that we mentioned that are declining more than twice the average rate of Lunchables as a whole.

是的，例如，如果你查看 Lunchables 12 月和 1 月的銷售情況，你會發現有四個 SKU 與我們提到的上游供應商問題有關，它們的降幅是 Lunchables 整體平均降幅的兩倍多。

And those are dragging the sellout down quite a lot in these last few months.

這些因素導致過去幾個月的銷售量大幅下降。

We do expect that to continue to happen into February.

我們確實預計這種情況將持續到二月。

We think the service issue will be fully resolved during the month of February, and then we're going to see a gradual recovery on the sellout from that point onwards.

我們認為服務問題將在二月得到全面解決，然後我們將看到銷售量從那時起逐漸恢復。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Tom Palmer, Citi.

花旗銀行的湯姆·帕爾默。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I wanted to just ask on -- this is a little bit of a follow-up, but on the organic sales growth and inflection as the year progresses, I think the comment in the prepared remarks was sequential improvement throughout the year.

我只是想問一下——這有點像後續問題，但關於隨著時間的推移有機銷售的增長和變化，我認為準備好的評論中的評論是全年的連續改善。

It sounds like the second quarter has maybe some unusual timing benefits with the Easter shift and then also lapping the plant downtime from a year ago.

聽起來第二季可能有一些不尋常的時間優勢，因為復活節的轉變以及一年前工廠的停工時間。

So just trying to understand, are we looking for kind of an underlying sales trends, this bigger inflection starting in the third quarter to overcome that?

所以只是想了解，我們是否正在尋找一種潛在的銷售趨勢，這種從第三季開始的更大的轉折點來克服這一點？

And if so, what are the key drivers of that inflection?

如果是的話，這種轉變的主要驅動因素是什麼？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

So yes, in the second quarter, you should see a relevant improvement on the trends.

所以是的，在第二季度，你應該會看到趨勢有顯著改善。

But only because of this, about 100 bps shift from Q1, but also we start to lap the factory closure -- temporary closure we had in the quarter.

但僅僅因為這一點，與第一季相比，變化幅度約為 100 個基點，而且我們也開始彌補本季工廠關閉（暫時關閉）造成的損失。

We start to lap that Lunchables report that was issued early in April.

我們開始回顧四月初發布的 Lunchables 報告。

So those two things alone will -- these three things alone will have a relevant improvement in the trends, plus the fact that as we mentioned before, price investments start more pronounced as we head into Easter and beyond and as we continue to launch some product enhancements, Lunchables being one of them.

因此，僅憑這兩件事——僅憑這三件事就會對趨勢產生相關的改善，再加上我們之前提到的事實，隨著復活節及以後的到來以及我們繼續推出一些產品增強功能，價格投資將開始變得更加明顯，Lunchables 就是其中之一。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可·拉弗里，派珀·桑德勒。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I wanted to ask a similar question to Andrew's, but with the advertising as opposed to promotional spending.

我想問一個與安德魯類似的問題，但是是關於廣告支出而不是促銷支出。

You pointed out the 4.5% level, but that does include market research.

您指出了 4.5% 的水平，但這確實包括市場研究。

And even for peers, excluding that, the advertising level is -- averages closer to 5% or more.

即使對於同行來說，不包括這一點，廣告水平平均也接近 5% 或更高。

Is your marketing spending enough?

你的行銷投入夠嗎？

And I know it has come up, but with just competitive and consumer dynamics is not at the right level, does there need to be some upside to that figure as well?

我知道這個數字已經上升了，但由於競爭和消費者動態還沒有達到正確的水平，這個數字是否也需要上升？

Look, I guess, I will start by saying -- and thank you for the question -- not all brands, not all countries are created equal.

我想，首先我要說的是──感謝您的提問──並非所有品牌、並非所有國家都是平等的。

So I think one of the things you see is that we're also making sure that some of the analyses that we have done in the past years is that we have kind of the right levels of marketing in different categories and in different countries based on our needs and what it means to be successful.

所以我認為您看到的事情之一是，我們還在確保我們過去幾年所做的一些分析能夠根據我們的需求以及成功的意義，在不同類別和不同國家/地區採取適當的營銷水平。

The second thing that you should also know is that we talked about earlier, we have especially designated categories to Accelerate, Protect, and Balance.

您還應該知道的第二件事是我們之前談到的，我們有特別指定的類別來加速、保護和平衡。

Our marketing dollars are going to continue to follow that.

我們的行銷資金將繼續追隨這股潮流。

That is part of the strategy of us making sure we invest in those businesses that we believe have a bigger tailwind as we go forward.

這是我們策略的一部分，確保我們投資於那些我們認為在未來發展中具有更大順風的業務。

So again, a different level of spending by different type of strategy.

再次強調，不同類型的策略意味著不同的支出水準。

And the last thing I would say is one of our focus has been, over the last two years, doing two things.

我最後要說的是，過去兩年來我們的重點是做兩件事。

First, making sure that we grow the return of every dollar that we invest in marketing.

首先，確保我們在行銷上投入的每一美元都能獲得更大的回報。

So we have the analytical tools to allow us to do that.

所以我們有分析工具可以讓我們做到這一點。

And second, that we continue to shift more dollar from non-working into working.

其次，我們要繼續把更多的資金從非工作資金轉移到工作經費。

So I think as we go into 2025, you'll see us that even though we may stay at the same levels of overall spending, there's actually a dramatic shift in terms of how much consumers will see in terms of marketing as we are shifting away from, again, places of non-working dollars, being more efficient with those dollars so that it actually can be beneficial to the brands.

因此，我認為，當我們進入 2025 年時，你會看到，即使我們的總體支出水平保持不變，但就消費者在營銷方面看到的金額而言，實際上會發生巨大變化，因為我們正在從非工作資金的地方轉移，更有效地利用這些資金，這樣它實際上才能使品牌受益。

And just to complement, as we have said before quite a few times, we do believe our sufficiency levels are around 5% and we're going to gradually get there.

另外，正如我們之前多次說過的那樣，我們確實相信我們的充足率在 5% 左右，而且我們將逐步達到這個目標。

But to Carlos's point, one of the benefits, among others, of the Brand Growth System that we are deploying now is shedding light on opportunity for us to be a lot better in the returns of the market investments.

但正如卡洛斯所說，我們現在部署的品牌成長系統的好處之一就是為我們提供了獲得更好市場投資回報的機會。

So you see, in '25, we are going to release $60 million to $80 million more marketing like brand media marketing, which is quite a lot, more than a 10% increase, in our overall media investment.

所以你看，在25年，我們將投入6000萬到8000萬美元的營銷資金，比如品牌媒體營銷，這是一個相當大的數目，在我們的整體媒體投資中增長了10%以上。

That's coming from non-working dollars.

這些錢都來自非工作資金。

And within the media, there is also a lot of efforts to redeploy to media places that provide higher return, be it about media levers or across certain brands.

在媒體內部，我們也在加大力度重新部署能夠提供更高回報的媒體管道，無論是透過媒體槓桿還是透過某些品牌。

So even though the P&L will be flat as a percentage of revenue on a year-over-year basis, you'll see a lot more marketing pressure, which is important.

因此，即使損益表佔收入的百分比與去年同期相比持平，你也會看到更大的行銷壓力，這是很重要的。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的克里斯凱裡 (Chris Carey)。

Hi, everyone.

大家好。

I wanted to ask, I guess, a bigger-picture question.

我想問一個更宏觀的問題。

I think one of the things I personally struggle with is that the categories in which you compete are actually running more or less in line with historical growth rates.

我認為我個人面臨的一個問題是，你所競爭的類別實際上或多或少與歷史成長率保持一致。

Not amazing, but more or less in line.

不算驚艷，但大致符合要求。

And your business is just underperforming those categories in which you compete.

而您的業務表現恰恰不如您所競爭的那些類別。

And certainly, there are specific categories that have had some issues and you'll be lapping those.

當然，有些特定類別確實存在一些問題，你會解決這些問題。

And surely, that will be helpful.

這肯定會有所幫助。

But it does feel like there's a bit broader of a dynamic underway.

但確實感覺有一種更廣泛的動態正在發生。

And I think that's where some of these questions are coming from around pricing investments and what's potentially needed in the acceleration of organic sales growth.

我認為這些問題來自於定價投資以及加速有機銷售成長可能需要什麼。

I guess if you could diagnose what you think is driving some of this underperformance relative to categories on a broader level, whether that's execution, whether that's affordability?

我想，如果您能從更廣闊的層面診斷出導致這種表現不佳的原因是什麼，是執行力，還是承受能力？

And really, what I'm getting at, I suppose, is say we're sitting here in a few months and we're not seeing the pickup, what is the correct action to take?

實際上，我想說的是，假設幾個月後我們還沒有看到經濟回升，我們應該採取什麼正確的行動？

Is it incremental pricing, incremental advertising, a rethink of execution?

是增量定價、增量廣告還是重新考慮執行？

So I'd realize that's a big question, but I'd love your observations or thoughts on this topic.

所以我意識到這是一個大問題，但我很想聽聽你對這個問題的看法或想法。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Appreciate the question.

我很感謝你提出這個問題。

I guess let me just start by putting things in perspective a little bit in terms of the way I see it.

我想讓我先從我的角度來稍微闡述事情的來龍去脈。

Our portfolio is about over 200 brands in over 40 countries.

我們的產品組合涵蓋 40 多個國家的 200 多個品牌。

If you think about today where we see our challenges, they are concentrating in four brands and only in the US Retail business.

如果您想想今天我們面臨的挑戰，它們集中在四個品牌上，而且只在美國零售業務上。

And so it actually helps quite a bit for us to make sure that we are being focused on our investments in products and pricing in order to drive top-line improvements, in particular those areas, that again there are a subset of the large brands that we have in a number of countries we participate.

因此，它實際上對我們有很大幫助，可以確保我們專注於對產品和定價的投資，以推動營收成長，特別是那些在我們參與的許多國家中擁有一部分大品牌的領域。

At the same time we're doing that, we're also being conscious of making sure we manage through our margins so that we don't go backwards in our gross margins.

同時，我們也在有意識地確保透過利潤來管理，以免我們的毛利率出現倒退。

And in terms of the investment we're making, I think that it's easy for us to just point to the things that we actually have proven already.

就我們正在進行的投資而言，我認為我們很容易就指出那些我們實際上已經證明的事情。

Let me give you an example of Capri Sun.

讓我舉一個 Capri Sun 的例子。

We've actually improved 5 points in dollar sales in the fourth quarter.

實際上，我們第四季的美元銷售額提高了 5 個百分點。

And that came about us renovating the product to make sure we win on taste, innovating, we're bringing new multi-serve packaging, single-cell bottles, bringing it by to the consumer, expanding into convenient channel. And at the same time, we've already seen how the multi-serve product in club is actually becoming a top-quartile item.

因此，我們要對產品進行革新，確保我們在口味上取勝，不斷創新，我們推出了新的多份包裝、單瓶包裝，將其帶給消費者，擴展到便捷的管道。同時，我們已經看到俱樂部中的多種服務產品實際上正在成為最暢銷的商品。

So for us, it is that we already have kind of a blueprint in which we have applied our Brand Growth System to the critical brands in order to see results that we are continuing to see -- experience as we go forward.

因此對我們來說，我們已經有了一種藍圖，我們將品牌成長系統應用於關鍵品牌，以便看到我們不斷看到的結果——前進過程中的經驗。

So I know that sometimes, it can seem like a lot.

所以我知道，有時，這看起來很多。

But again, for us, it's a specific -- it's a few brands, it's in the US Retail, and it's places in which we are attacking -- leveraging kind of the proven methodology that we have now developed through our Brand Growth System in order to drive top-line growth.

但對我們來說，這是一個具體的目標——它是幾個品牌，它在美國零售業，它是我們正在進攻的地方——利用我們現在透過品牌成長系統開發的經過驗證的方法來推動營收成長。

The other thing I will add is, look, there is not one answer, like there's not a super bullet.

我要補充的另一件事是，看，沒有一個答案，就像沒有超級子彈一樣。

I think given the different categories that you play in different dynamics, the approach differs a lot.

我認為，考慮到您在不同動態中扮演的不同類別，方法會有很大不同。

So there are places where, yes, it's affordability.

是的，有些地方是可以負擔的。

And that's where we are going to invest the price the most to ensure that the price gaps are established.

這就是我們將投入最多價格的地方，以確保建立價格差距。

There are places, which is about continuing to invest in the products to maintain or increase product superiority.

還有地方，就是要繼續對產品進行投入，以維持或提高產品的優勢。

And that's where we see investments in places like Capri Sun, Lunchables, and there are a few others.

這就是我們在 Capri Sun、Lunchables 和其他一些地方看到的投資。

So you will see next week in CAGNY, I think that there are good answers for what you're seeking for.

所以您將在下週的 CAGNY 中看到，我認為您所尋求的問題將會有很好的答案。

But there is a lot of time in that presentation that we're going to be talking about our path to growth, given specific themes across the different platforms.

但在演講中我們會花很多時間來討論我們的成長之路，以及不同平台上的具體主題。

So I think you're going to see what you're asking in more detail over there.

所以我想你會更詳細地了解你問的問題。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝大家。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Operator, we have time for one more question.

接線員，我們還有時間再回答一個問題。

Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

亞歷克西亞·霍華德，伯恩斯坦。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Good morning.

早安.

Good morning.

早安.

Okay.

好的。

Can I hit on the GLP-1 topic?

可以談 GLP-1 話題嗎？

We've seen other protein-focused companies in North America already announcing plans to lean into the rising uptake of these GLP-1 injectable weight-loss drugs.

我們已經看到北美其他以蛋白質為重點的公司已經宣布計劃利用這些 GLP-1 注射減肥藥物的不斷增長的需求。

But first of all, do you believe Kraft Heinz is seeing any impact from them?

但首先，您是否認為卡夫亨氏受到了他們的影響？

And what opportunities are there to meet the unmet needs of these patients over time?

隨著時間的推移，有哪些機會可以滿足這些患者未被滿足的需求？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Alexia.

謝謝你，亞歷克西亞。

I guess let me start with the last part of your question.

我想讓我從你問題的最後一部分開始。

And no, we have not seen any meaningful impact from GLP-1 in the business.

不，我們還沒有看到 GLP-1 對業務產生任何有意義的影響。

Now we do know that consumers who do use GLP-1s, typically, what they're looking for is more protein and more hydration alternatives.

現在我們知道，使用 GLP-1 的消費者通常尋求的是更多的蛋白質和更多的水分替代品。

So here at Kraft Heinz, we're making sure we continue to provide those choices for every consumer. And we're seeing that, whether that is making sure in our portfolio that we highlight in products like Oscar Mayer, Lunchables, P3, even our quesadillas and Delimex and Heinz beans, the amount of protein that actually can deliver to the consumer in taste and in an accessible and affordable way.

因此，卡夫亨氏確保繼續為每位消費者提供這些選擇。我們看到，無論是在我們的產品組合中，我們專注於 Oscar Mayer、Lunchables、P3，甚至是我們的玉米餅、Delimex 和亨氏豆類等產品，都能以方便且實惠的方式向消費者提供優質蛋白質。

And then at the same time, we're also making sure that we are continuing to drive the importance of us elevating the portfolio of any product that has protein. So the fact that we have this taste elevation product platform within our company allows us to make sure that no matter what protein people are using at home that we can actually elevate it and make sure that it delivers a great taste they're looking for.

同時，我們也要確保繼續強調提升任何含有蛋白質的產品組合的重要性。因此，我們公司擁有這種口味提升產品平台，這使我們能夠確保無論人們在家中使用哪種蛋白質，我們都可以對其進行提升，並確保它能夠提供人們想要的美味。

So I think you'll see us continue to emphasize this in a process as we go forward.

因此，我認為你會看到我們在前進的過程中繼續強調這一點。

Because for us, it's important that we provide choices for every consumer and every lifestyle.

因為對我們來說，為每位消費者和每種生活方式提供選擇非常重要。

Thank you, Alexia.

謝謝你，亞歷克西亞。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, everyone, for your questions today.

謝謝大家今天提出的問題。

We look forward to seeing you all at CAGNY next week.

我們期待下週在 CAGNY 見到大家。

See you next week.

下週見。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's teleconference.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

We thank you for your participation.

我們感謝您的參與。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

現在您可以斷開您的線路。