晶科能源 (JKS) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

晶科能源公佈第三季獲利強勁,組件出貨量、毛利率和淨利均增加。他們將自己的成功歸功於N型TOPCon技術和全球營運網路的優勢。該公司預計N型組件的需求將持續成長,並計劃提高產能。他們還提到了在永續發展方面取得的進展以及對提供清潔可靠的太陽能產品的承諾。

晶科能源報告第三季組件出貨量大幅成長,財務指標有所改善。由於組件價格呈下降趨勢,他們預計第四季毛利率將略有下降。該公司認為,美國的分散式發電市場面臨壓力,但看到了世界其他地區的潛力。他們預期市場需求將會增加,並力求超越出貨指引。

晶科能源預計,明年 TOPCon 的產業總產量將增加一倍以上,該公司將發揮重要作用。他們預計明年美國出貨量的收入將有所改善。講者討論了歐洲市場的庫存水準以及加息對該行業的影響。他們相信美國市場前景光明,但正在等待關於限制 IRA 補貼的官方指導。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

    感謝您的耐心等待,歡迎參加晶科能源控股有限公司2023年第三季業績電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,本次會議正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to Stella Wang of Investor Relations.

    現在我想將會議交給投資者關係部門的 Stella Wang。

  • Stella Wang - IR Officer

    Stella Wang - IR Officer

  • Thank you, operator. Thank you everyone for joining us today for JinkoSolar's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. The company's results were released earlier today and available on the company's IR website at www.jinkosolar.com as well as on Newswire Services. We have also provided a supplemental presentation for today's earnings call which can also be found on the IR website.

    謝謝你,接線生。感謝大家今天參加晶科能源 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。該公司的業績於今天稍早發布,並可在該公司的投資者關係網站 www.jinkosolar.com 以及 Newswire Services 上查閱。我們也為今天的財報電話會議提供了補充演示文稿,您也可以在 IR 網站上找到該演示文稿。

  • On the call today from JinkoSolar are Mr. Li Xiande, Chairman of the Board of Directors and the CEO of JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited; Mr. Gener Miao, Chief Marketing Officer of JinkoSolar Company Limited; Mr. Pan Li, Chief Financial Officer of JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited; and Mr. Charlie Cao, Chief Financial Officer of JinkoSolar Co. Ltd. Mr. Li will discuss JinkoSolar's business operations and company's highlights; followed by Mr. Miao, who will talk about the sales and marketing; and then Mr. Pan Li, who will go through the financials. We will all be available to answer your questions during the Q&A session that follows.

    今天接聽晶科能源電話的是晶科能源控股有限公司董事局主席兼執行長李顯德先生;苗根先生,晶科能源有限公司首席行銷長;潘力先生,晶科能源控股有限公司財務長;以及晶科能源有限公司財務長曹查理先生。李先生將討論晶科能源的業務運作和公司亮點;接下來是苗先生,他會談論銷售和行銷;然後是潘李先生,他將負責財務方面的工作。我們將在接下來的問答環節回答您的問題。

  • Please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements made under the Safe Harbor Provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. As such, our future results may be materially different from the views expressed today. Further information regarding this and other risks is included in JinkoSolar's public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. JinkoSolar does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required under the applicable law.

    請注意,今天的討論將包含根據 1995 年美國私人證券訴訟改革法案安全港條款作出的前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及固有風險和不確定性。因此,我們未來的結果可能與今天表達的觀點大不相同。有關此風險和其他風險的更多資訊包含在晶科能源向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中。除適用法律要求外,晶科能源不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

  • It's now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Li Xiande, Chairman and CEO of JinkoSolar Holdings. Mr. Li will speak in Mandarin and I will translate his comments into English. Please go ahead, Mr. Li.

    現在我很高興向大家介紹晶科能源董事長兼執行長李顯德先生。李先生將用國語發言,我將把他的評論翻譯成英文。請李先生繼續。

  • Xiande Li - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

    Xiande Li - Co-Founder, CEO & Chairman of the Board

  • [Interpreted]

    [解讀]

  • We are pleased that we were able to overcome the challenges with this due to market volatility and delivered a strong third quarter. We did so by leveraging our advantages in N-type TOPCon technology, extensive global operation network and advanced integrated capacity structure. And our module shipments gross margin and net income all increased significantly year-over-year. Total module shipments were approximately 21.4 gigawatts, an increase of 107.9% year-over-year. Polysilicon costs decreased sequentially. High-efficient N-type products that command a premium accounted for over 60% of total module shipments. And module shipments to the U.S. market recorded sequential growth in the third quarter, all contributing to improved profitability. Year-over-year, our net income increased by 140.7% to USD 181.4 million and adjusted net income increased by 215.1% to USD 184.6 million. Diluted earnings per order share increased by 188.7% to USD 0.63 and gross margin increased from 15.7% to 19.3%.

    我們很高興我們能夠克服市場波動帶來的挑戰,並實現強勁的第三季業績。我們憑藉N型TOPCon技術優勢、廣泛的全球營運網路和先進的綜合產能結構實現了這一目標。我們的組件出貨量毛利率和淨利潤均較去年同期大幅成長。組件總出貨量約21.4吉瓦,較去年同期成長107.9%。多晶矽成本季減。溢價較高的高效率N型產品佔組件總出貨量的60%以上。第三季美國市場組件出貨量較上季成長,獲利能力提高。淨利潤年增 140.7%,達到 1.814 億美元,調整後淨利成長 215.1%,達到 1.846 億美元。每訂單攤薄收益成長 188.7% 至 0.63 美元,毛利率從 15.7% 成長至 19.3%。

  • Since the third quarter, price declines in the supply chain have stimulated end market demand. For the first 9 months, newly added installations of PV in the domestic market reached 128.9 gigawatts, nearly 50% more than the full year installations in 2022. As one of the new 3 products to boost China's export, solar has become a new driving force for China's economy and also contributes to global energy transition. Meanwhile, intensified competition brought by changes in supply and demand accelerated technical iterations, high interest rates in some regions and geopolitical tensions caused some volatility in the global PV market, which tested all industry players. We believe that we as the industry leader will become even stronger as the competition intensifies.

    三季以來,供應鏈價格下降刺激了終端市場需求。前9個月,國內市場光伏新增裝置量達128.9吉瓦,較2022年全年裝機量增長近50%。太陽能作為拉動中國出口的新三大產品之一,已成為新的增長動力為中國經濟的發展,也為全球能源轉型做出貢獻。同時,供需變化帶來的競爭加劇加速了技術迭代,部分地區利率高企以及地緣政治緊張局勢導致全球光伏市場出現一定波動,給行業各方帶來考驗。我們相信,隨著競爭的加劇,我們作為產業的領導者將會變得更加強大。

  • At the end of the third quarter, we became the first module manufacturer in the world to have delivered a total of 190 gigawatts solar modules, covering over 190 countries and regions. Our capabilities in globalized sales, operations and management added by continuous R&D accumulation and innovation help us build an all-round competition barrier. We are confident in our ability to navigate through the volatility cycle, achieve healthy and sustainable profitability and increase our shareholders' value.

    截至三季末,我們成為全球第一家累計交付190吉瓦太陽能組件的組件製造商,覆蓋190多個國家和地區。持續的研發累積與創新,加上全球化的銷售、營運和管理能力,建構了全方位的競爭障礙。我們對度過波動週期、實現健康和可持續的獲利能力以及增加股東價值的能力充滿信心。

  • By the end of the third quarter, the mass-produce efficiency of N-type cells reached 25.6% and the N-type modules power output was 25 to 30wp higher than similar P-type modules. Demand for these products continued to increase globally as the LCOE is lower. N-type modules still retained a premium over similar P-type modules and the premium continued to exceed the market average.

    截至第三季末,N型電池量產效率達25.6%,N型組件功率比同類P型組件高25-30wp。隨著度電成本降低,全球對這些產品的需求持續成長。 N型組件相對於同類P型組件仍維持溢價,且溢價持續超過市場平均水準。

  • At the end of the third quarter, we already had over 55 gigawatts of N-type cell production capacity. And by the end of this year, our N-type cell production capacity is expected to reach about 70 gigawatts, a competitive capacity structure leading the industry. Recently, our integrated project in Shanxi, China started construction, Phase 1 and Phase 2 for a total of 28 gigawatts wafer, cell and module integrated capacity are expected to start production in the first half of 2024. In addition, we are optimistic about the growth potential brought by solar storage parity in the long run and our capacity build-up and the development of energy storage business are progressing steadily.

    截至三季末,我們已經擁有超過55吉瓦的N型電池產能。預計今年底,我們的N型電池產能將達到70吉瓦左右,產能結構處於業界領先水準。近期,我們位於中國山西的一體化項目開工建設,一期、二期共計28吉瓦矽片、電池片、組件一體化產能,預計2024年上半年投產。此外,我們看好長期來看,光伏儲能平價帶來的成長潛力,我們的產能建設和儲能業務的發展正在穩步推進。

  • Recently, our high-efficiency 182 N-Type TOPCon cell set a new record with maximum lab conversion efficiency of 26.89%, again, creating an important milestone in the innovation of our products and solutions. Thanks to our leadership in driving N-Type TOPCon technology, N-Type TOPCon products is expected to capture market share greater than 70% in the whole industry, achieving absolute dominance.

    近期,我們的高效能182 N型TOPCon電池創下了最高實驗室轉換效率26.89%的新紀錄,再次創造了我們產品和解決方案創新的重要里程碑。由於我們在N-Type TOPCon技術上的領先地位,N-Type TOPCon產品預計將佔據整個行業70%以上的市場份額,實現絕對主導地位。

  • With higher conversion efficiency, lower industrialization cost and other advantages, we firmly believe TOPCon technology will remain the mainstream technical path for now and in the future 3 to 5 years. We are confident to be ahead of the industry dynamically by about half a year in terms of power output, cost and product competitiveness through continuous technology iteration and leveraging our integrated capacity.

    憑藉更高的轉換效率、更低的產業化成本等優勢,我們堅信TOPCon技術在目前以及未來3至5年仍將是主流技術路徑。我們有信心透過不斷的技術迭代和綜合產能的發揮,在輸出功率、成本和產品競爭力方面動態領先產業半年左右。

  • As a responsible global company, we continued to make progress in sustainable development. This excellent performance in corporate social responsibility, we received the high rating from Ecovadis, outperforming the mainstream PV companies. We are dedicated to providing clean, high-efficient and reliable solar products and energy storage solutions to more and more countries and regions, making our contribution to global energy transition.

    作為一家負責任的全球公司,我們在永續發展方面不斷取得進展。如此出色的企業社會責任表現,獲得了Ecovadis的高度評價,表現優於主流光伏企業。我們致力於為越來越多的國家和地區提供清潔、高效、可靠的太陽能產品和儲能解決方案,為全球能源轉型做出我們的貢獻。

  • Before turning it over to Gener, I would like to go over our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023. By the end of 2023, we expect to mass-produce the N-type cell efficiency to reach 25.8%. We are confident to exceed the full year module shipment guidance of 70 to 75 gigawatts with N-type module accounting for approximately 60% of total module shipments. We expect our annual production capacity for mono wafers, solar cells and solar modules to reach 85, 90 and 110 gigawatts respectively by the end of this year, with N-type accounting for over 75% of the total capacity. We expect the module shipments to be about 23 gigawatts for the fourth quarter of 2023. We are confident we will continue to lead the industry with our advanced technology and premium high-efficient products.

    在交給Gener之前,我想回顧一下我們對2023年第四季和全年的指導。到2023年底,我們預計量產的N型電池效率將達到25.8%。我們有信心超過全年組件出貨量指引值70至75吉瓦,其中N型組件約佔組件總出貨量的60%。我們預計到今年年底,我們的單晶矽片、太陽能電池和組件的年產能將分別達到85、90和110吉瓦,其中N型產能佔總產能的75%以上。我們預計2023年第四季組件出貨量約為23吉瓦。我們有信心憑藉先進技術和優質高效產品繼續引領業界。

  • Gener Miao - Former CMO

    Gener Miao - Former CMO

  • Thank you, Mr. Li. Total solar shipments were 22.6 gigawatts in the third quarter with module shipments accounting for 95%. As we continue to improve product quality and further develop our client service network, our brand inflows continue to grow. By end of the third quarter, our all-time accumulative global solar module shipments exceeded 190 gigawatts, covering over 190 countries and the regions.

    謝謝李先生。第三季太陽能總出貨量為22.6吉瓦,其中組件出貨量佔95%。隨著我們不斷提高產品品質並進一步發展客戶服務網絡,我們的品牌流入量持續成長。截至第三季末,我們的全球太陽能組件出貨量歷史累計突破190吉瓦,覆蓋190多個國家和地區。

  • In response to market volatility, we [flexible] adjusted the geographic mix of our shipments during the quarter. The domestic market became the dominant area for our shipments, accounting to around 40%. Shipment to emerging markets remained stable sequentially, while Asia Pacific and North America increased compared to the last quarter. We are particularly pleased that the shipments of high-efficiency Tiger Neo modules exceeded 60% of total module shipments as Tiger Neo accelerated its market penetration, especially in China, Middle East and North Africa and Asia Pacific. Thanks to higher efficiency and high added value to customers, Tiger Neo products still carry a substantial premium compared to similar P-type products and continue to outperform the industry average.

    為了因應市場波動,我們[靈活]調整了本季出貨的地理組合。國內市場成為我們出貨量的主導區域,佔比約40%。新興市場的出貨量較上季保持穩定,而亞太地區和北美地區的出貨量較上季有所增加。我們特別高興的是,隨著Tiger Neo加速其市場滲透,特別是在中國、中東和北非以及亞太地區,高效能Tiger Neo組件的出貨量超過組件總出貨量的60%。由於更高的效率和對客戶的高附加價值,Tiger Neo產品與同類P型產品相比仍具有可觀的溢價,並繼續跑贏行業平均水平。

  • In terms of prices, lower upstream costs have been reflected in module prices which decreased compared to the second quarter. And prior to this decline, some clients have slowed the pace of new orders and some of the existing orders were delayed. However, lower module prices leading to greater economic benefits also drove plenty of demand, which filled the gap caused by delayed orders. We adjusted prices and market strategy timely to cope with market shifts and solidified real-time feedback from clients.

    價格方面,上游成本下降反映在組件價格較第二季下降。而在此下降之前,一些客戶已經放慢了新訂單的節奏,部分現有訂單也被推遲。但組件價格下降帶來的更大經濟效益也帶動了充足的需求,填補了訂單延遲所帶來的缺口。我們根據市場變化及時調整價格和市場策略,鞏固客戶的即時回饋。

  • Our order signing moves are steady as planned. With our globalized sales network and localized customer service infrastructure, we are committed to maximizing the value of products and services we provided to our clients. Recently, we signed 3.6 gigawatt module supply agreement with N-type Tiger Neo with ACWA Power. With industry-leading efficiency, reduced degradation and the temperature coefficient, enhanced bifacial factor, outstanding low-light performance and unparalleled yield per watt to reduce system lifetime energy cost, Tiger Neo delivers at least 3% of power generation gain to clients, particularly in the climate conditions of desert area in Middle East, the excellent temperature coefficient and bifacial factor will significantly raise power generation and project IRR.

    我們的訂單簽署進度按計劃穩定進行。憑藉全球化的銷售網絡和在地化的客戶服務基礎設施,我們致力於最大化為客戶提供的產品和服務的價值。近日,我們與ACWA Power公司的N型Tiger Neo簽訂了3.6吉瓦組件供貨協議。憑藉業界領先的效率、減少的退化和溫度係數、增強的雙面係數、出色的低光性能和無與倫比的每瓦產量,可降低系統生命週期的能源成本,Tiger Neo 為客戶提供至少3% 的發電增益,特別是在中東沙漠地區的氣候條件,優異的溫度係數和雙面係數將顯著提高發電量和專案內部收益率。

  • As industrial chain prices declined and started to stabilize, large-scale utility project accelerated the connection to the grid and we expect a new installation record in China this year. Relatively, high inventory in Europe is being gradually digested and demand remains strong in U.S. market under the Inflation Reduction Act. We are also optimistic about growing solar demand in Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries to support energy transition. With high demand certainty and the health of our high-efficient product and services, we are confident that we will expand our market share.

    隨著產業鏈價格下降並開始穩定,大型公用事業項目加速併網,我們預計今年中國的裝機量將創下新紀錄。相對而言,歐洲的高庫存正逐漸被消化,而美國市場在通膨削減法案下的需求仍然強勁。我們也對沙烏地阿拉伯和其他中東國家不斷增長的太陽能需求以支持能源轉型持樂觀態度。憑藉高需求確定性以及我們高效產品和服務的健康狀況,我們有信心擴大我們的市場份額。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Pan.

    這樣,我就把電話轉給潘。

  • Mengmeng Li - CFO

    Mengmeng Li - CFO

  • Thank you, Gener. The significant growth in our module shipments, decrease in raw material costs as well as our continuous cost control helped our key financial metrics, including total revenue, gross margin, operating margin and net margin improved year-over-year. At the end of September, we declared a cash dividend of USD 1.5 per ADS, which is expected to be paid on or around December 6 this year. With the continuous expansion of our global industrial chain, market footprint and the power of our products, we're confident to maintain a healthy and sustainable profitability, meeting our commitment to shareholders.

    謝謝你,將軍。組件出貨量的大幅增長、原材料成本的下降以及持續的成本控制幫助我們的關鍵財務指標(包括總收入、毛利率、營業利潤率和淨利潤率)同比改善。 9月底,我們宣布派發每股ADS 1.5美元的現金股息,預計今年12月6日左右支付。隨著我們全球產業鏈、市場佈局和產品實力的不斷拓展,我們有信心保持健康、可持續的獲利能力,並履行對股東的承諾。

  • Let me go into more details now. Total revenue was USD 4.36 billion, flat sequentially and up 63% year-over-year. Gross margin was 19.3% compared with 15.6% in the second quarter this year and 15.7% in the third quarter last year. The sequential and year-over-year increases were mainly due to the decrease in the cost of raw materials. Total operating expenses accounted for 9.9% of total revenues compared with 10.6% in the second quarter this year and 15.4% in the third quarter last year, improving year-over-year.

    現在讓我詳細介紹一下。總營收為 43.6 億美元,環比持平,年增 63%。毛利率為19.3%,而今年第二季為15.6%,去年第三季為15.7%。環比和年成長主要是由於原料成本下降。總營運費用佔總營收的9.9%,今年第二季為10.6%,去年第三季為15.4%,年減。

  • Income from operations was about USD 410 million compared with income from operations of USD 212 million in the second quarter this year and USD 8.8 million in the third quarter last year, improving both sequentially and year-over-year. Operating margin was 9.4% compared with 5% in the second quarter this year and 0.3% in the third quarter last year, improving sequentially and year-over-year.

    營運收入約為4.1億美元,而今年第二季的營運收入為2.12億美元,去年第三季的營運收入為880萬美元,季比和年比均有所改善。營業利益率為 9.4%,而今年第二季為 5%,去年第三季為 0.3%,較上季和年比均有所改善。

  • Net income attributed to JinkoSolar Holdings ordinary shareholders was USD 181.4 million, flat sequentially and compared to USD 77.3 million in the third quarter last year, improving year-over-year. Excluding the impact of a change in fair value of the notes and long-term investments and share-based compensation expenses, the adjusted net income was USD 184.6 million, flat sequentially and up 2x year-over-year.

    歸屬於晶科能源普通股股東的淨利為1.814億美元,與上一季持平,而去年第三季為7,730萬美元,較去年同期有所改善。剔除票據公允價值變動及長期投資及股權激勵費用的影響,調整後淨利為1.846億美元,與上一季持平,較去年同期成長2倍。

  • Let's move into balance sheet. At the end of the third quarter, our cash and cash equivalents were USD 1.93 billion compared with USD 2.35 billion in the second quarter. AR turnover days were 87 days compared with 79 days in the second quarter of 2023. Inventory turnover days decreased to 67 days in the third quarter from 70 days in the second quarter this year. At the end of the third quarter, total debt was USD 4.23 billion compared to USD 4.73 billion in the second quarter this year. Net debt was USD 2.29 billion compared to USD 2.38 billion in the second quarter this year. Our debt structure is improving.

    讓我們進入資產負債表。第三季末,我們的現金和現金等價物為19.3億美元,而第二季為23.5億美元。 AR週轉天數為87天,而2023年第二季為79天。庫存週轉天數從今年第二季的70天減少到第三季的67天。截至第三季末,債務總額為 42.3 億美元,而今年第二季為 47.3 億美元。淨債務為 22.9 億美元,而今年第二季為 23.8 億美元。我們的債務結構正在改善。

  • This concludes our prepared remarks. We are now happy to take your questions. Operator, please proceed.

    我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。接線員,請繼續。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question today will come from Philip Shen of ROTH MKM.

    (操作員說明)今天我們的第一個問題將來自 ROTH MKM 的 Philip Shen。

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • You guys had a pretty nice margin in Q3 despite the collapse in module prices. It seems like you've been able to match your cost structure with your module pricing. So I was wondering if you could give us your sense of how you expect module pricing to trend in Q4 and then also Q1? And then also in terms of margins, do you expect similar margins in Q4 and Q1 versus Q3 or do you think there could be potential for even margin expansion in Q4 and Q1?

    儘管模組價格暴跌,但你們在第三季的利潤率還是相當不錯的。看來您已經能夠將成本結構與模組定價相匹配。所以我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對第四季度和第一季模組定價趨勢的預期?然後,就利潤率而言,您預計第四季度和第一季與第三季的利潤率是否相似,或者您認為第四季度和第一季的利潤率可能有均勻擴張的潛力嗎?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Philip, this is Charlie. And we did very good in the first 9 months, including the third quarter. And thanks to our strong order of visibility, we almost finished this year's target, 70 to 75 gigawatts. And regarding the module price, the trend is in the downward trend. And we are expecting the ASP in Q4 is in a downward trend versus the third quarter. And because we have more exposures to Chinese market in the fourth quarter, we expect the gross margin is possibly slightly down quarter-over-quarter. And next year, we believe the module price will be relatively stabilized.

    菲利普,這是查理。我們在前 9 個月(包括第三季)做得非常好。由於我們強大的能見度,我們幾乎完成了今年的目標,即 70 至 75 吉瓦。而就組件價格而言,趨勢呈下降趨勢。我們預期第四季的平均售價將較第三季呈下降趨勢。由於我們第四季對中國市場的曝險較多,我們預期毛利率可能會較上季略有下降。而明年,我們認為組件價格將相對穩定。

  • And regarding the -- it's very important for us to next year, we look up as quickly as possible the sales orders and we are in a good position. I think we have the largest N-type TOPCon capacities and we have the most largest integrated capacities out of China for the U.S. market. And we expect to have over 30% shipments to European market and the U.S. market together. And we are aiming to over 85% shipment on TOPCon next year. So we are confident we can deliver relatively better performance compared to our peers next year.

    關於明年對我們來說非常重要,我們盡快找到銷售訂單,我們處於有利地位。我認為我們擁有最大的N型TOPCon產能,我們擁有中國以外針對美國市場最大的綜合產能。我們預計歐洲市場和美國市場的出貨量總計將超過30%。我們的目標是明年 TOPCon 的出貨量超過 85%。因此,我們有信心明年能夠提供比同業更好的業績。

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. So Q4 margin could be down slightly because of the China mix. And then Q1, perhaps you could have some expansion beyond, so growth or expansion of the margin in Q1 and Q2?

    好的。因此,由於中國的影響,第四季的利潤率可能會略有下降。然後第一季度,也許你可以有一些擴張,那麼第一季和第二季的利潤率會成長或擴大嗎?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • It's too early to say, but this year, our performance in the U.S. market is not so good because the module was delayed, detained. And we expect next year everything is getting on the schedule and the margin contribution from the U.S. market will be quite significant starting from next year.

    現在說還為時過早,但今年我們在美國市場的表現不太好,因為模組被推遲、被扣留。我們預計明年一切都會按計劃進行,從明年開始,美國市場的利潤貢獻將相當可觀。

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. You mentioned, Charlie, just now the U.S. shipments. And so I was wondering, in Q3, was there a large benefit in margin from the healthy amount of U.S. shipments because you've been able to be released from detention very quickly? And then also next year, I think in the past you were talking about 10 gigawatts of shipments for the U.S. market in '24, but in your PowerPoint today, you highlighted 12-plus gigawatts by year end '23 of integrated capacity. So do you think '24 could actually be closer to 12 gigawatts? And we can leave it there.

    好的。查理,你剛才提到了美國的出貨。所以我想知道,在第三季度,由於你們能夠很快從拘留中獲釋,美國出貨量的健康數量是否會為利潤帶來很大的好處?然後是明年,我想過去您談論的是 24 年美國市場的出貨量為 10 吉瓦,但在今天的 PowerPoint 中,您強調了到 23 年底的綜合容量將達到 12 吉瓦以上。那麼您認為 '24 實際上可能接近 12 吉瓦嗎?我們可以把它留在那裡。

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Next year, yes, our target is over 10 gigawatts shipment in U.S. market and that's our best target. And the contribution -- earnings contribution from U.S. market in third quarter is not good because we shipped around 1.3, 1.4 gigawatts. But most of the modules were produced 6 to 9 months ago, and it's a relatively high cost, including the storage cost. So back to your question, it's improving quarter-by-quarter. I believe from beginning of next year and the earnings power from the U.S. will be quite significant for Jinko.

    是的,明年我們的目標是美國市場出貨量超過 10 吉瓦,這是我們的最佳目標。第三季美國市場的獲利貢獻並不好,因為我們的出貨量約為 1.3、1.4 吉瓦。但大部分模組都是6到9個月前生產的,成本相對較高,包括儲存成本。回到你的問題,它正在逐季度改善。我相信從明年初開始,來自美國的獲利能力對晶科能源來說將是相當重要的。

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. So you were able to generate 19% margin in Q3 despite the higher storage cost and the higher...

    知道了。因此,儘管存儲成本更高,而且...

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Right, right, yes.

    對對對,是的。

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • That's very interesting. One last question and I'll pass it on. Can you compare the pre-impairment margins in Q3 versus Q4 actuals? In other words, what is the like-to-like margin trajectory?

    這很有趣。最後一個問題,我會轉述的。您能否比較第三季和第四季的實際減損前利潤率?換句話說,相似獲利軌跡是什麼?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • You mean the impairment margin or the margin including impairment?

    你指的是減損幅度還是包含減損的幅度?

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Right. The margin -- pre-impairment...

    正確的。利潤率——減值前...

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • I know. And we did have some impairment -- inventory impairment in second quarter by the end of the June. But we don't expect any additional or significant impairment for both third quarter and the fourth quarter. We don't expect. And everything is ordered and we are in good position. And we believe our price is pretty nice if you compare our ASP with the small market price. And we don't expect the inventory impairment.

    我知道。我們確實有一些減值——截至六月底第二季的庫存減損。但我們預計第三季和第四季不會出現任何額外或重大減損。我們不期待。一切都已安排妥當,我們處於有利位置。如果您將我們的平均售價與小市場價格進行比較,我們相信我們的價格相當不錯。我們預計庫存不會減損。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our next question today is from Brian Lee of Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員指示)今天我們的下一個問題來自高盛的布萊恩李(Brian Lee)。

  • Baoyi Zhou - Research Analyst

    Baoyi Zhou - Research Analyst

  • This is Grace on for Brian. I guess, my first question, just to follow-up to the ASP questions earlier, I just wonder if you can talk about the ASP trends by maybe end markets and by different geography? Just asking because we have heard that some of the markets like, especially the DG market have seen really high channel inventory. So can you provide a bit more color on the ASP trends? And I have a follow-up.

    這是布萊恩的葛蕾絲。我想,我的第一個問題,只是為了跟進先前的 ASP 問題,我只是想知道您是否可以談談終端市場和不同地理位置的 ASP 趨勢?只是問一下,因為我們聽說一些市場,尤其是 DG 市場,通路庫存非常高。您能否提供更多有關 ASP 趨勢的資訊?我有一個後續行動。

  • Gener Miao - Former CMO

    Gener Miao - Former CMO

  • Yes, sure. Normally, we see a DG market is relatively ASP higher than utility. That's what people think. But at the current stage, we see a special situation in the U.S. market especially. So the U.S. market, because of many reasons, the DG market is more pressured than the utility market. That's what we have observed. I think personally we believe a very important reason is because of the, let's say, the supply side. So if the supply side is using a fully traceable, let's say, raw material or they are just play the opportunity game on the spot market. So I guess, that's one of the reasons why we see just oversupply in the U.S. DG market in such short-term.

    是的,當然。通常,我們看到 DG 市場的平均售價相對高於公用事業。人們就是這麼想的。但現階段,我們尤其看到美國市場的特殊情況。所以美國市場,由於多種原因,DG市場比公用事業市場承受的壓力更大。這就是我們所觀察到的。我個人認為,我們認為一個很重要的原因是供應方面。因此,如果供應方使用完全可追溯的原材料,或者他們只是在現貨市場上玩機會遊戲。所以我想,這就是我們在如此短期內看到美國柴油市場供應過剩的原因之一。

  • For the rest of the world, we believe that the DG market is relatively healthy. So we still see a strong DG market. Even, for example, in Europe, right now there are some pressures from the inventory side, but in the long-term, we are still a big fan of European market no matter it's DG or utilities. So we believe that the pre-remarked speech we have is starting digesting. So it will take some time, but it will be there. That's what we believe.

    對於世界其他地區,我們認為 DG 市場相對健康。因此,我們仍然看到強勁的 DG 市場。即使在歐洲,目前庫存方面也存在一些壓力,但從長遠來看,無論是分散式電源還是公用事業,我們仍然是歐洲市場的忠實粉絲。因此,我們相信我們已經開始消化預先發表的演講。所以這需要一些時間,但它會在那裡。這就是我們所相信的。

  • Baoyi Zhou - Research Analyst

    Baoyi Zhou - Research Analyst

  • Great. And then my second question on your shipment guide, your 4Q shipment guide of 23 gigawatts kind of implying a flattish quarter-over-quarter growth. But I think historically your 4Q is much higher than 3Q. Is this driven by the orders delay that you referenced on the prepared remarks or is there something else? And also, can you quantify how much of the delay was that? And when do you expect those orders to come back?

    偉大的。然後是關於你們的出貨指南的第二個問題,你們的第四季出貨指南為 23 吉瓦,這意味著季度環比增長持平。但我認為從歷史上看,第四季遠高於第三季。這是由您在準備好的評論中提到的訂單延遲造成的還是還有其他原因?另外,您能量化延遲的程度嗎?您預計這些訂單什麼時候會回來?

  • Gener Miao - Former CMO

    Gener Miao - Former CMO

  • Yes. So we are relatively -- provide a relative conservative numbers which is I think is the high end of our annual guidance which will be around 75 gigawatts. Still, on the order book side, we have more than what we need, but we still have some supply bottleneck. That's one of the reasons why we continue to expand our capacity, try to fulfill all these commitments we are making. So overall, we are fully confident that we can beat our, let's say, guidance if needed. It depends on the supply side and the market trend.

    是的。因此,我們提供了一個相對保守的數字,我認為這是我們年度指導的上限,約為 75 吉瓦。儘管如此,在訂單方面,我們的庫存已經超出了我們的需要,但我們仍然存在一些供應瓶頸。這就是我們繼續擴大產能、努力履行我們所做的所有這些承諾的原因之一。因此,總的來說,我們完全有信心,如果需要的話,我們可以超越我們的指導。這取決於供給端和市場走勢。

  • And your follow-up question is about if -- you're talking about next Q1 or next year's order book. Again, for this next year's total demand side, we are fully confident the market will go up by another 20%, even 25% compared with 2023. So in the key market, we still believe the high quality, high efficiency, N-type TOPCon product is still in some of the, let's say, some shortage. That's why we still have the confidence we will continue to build-up our order book and extend our market share next year.

    您的後續問題是關於是否 - 您正在談論下一個第一季或明年的訂單簿。再次,對於明年的總需求面,我們完全有信心市場會比2023年再增長20%,甚至25%。所以在重點市場,我們仍然相信高品質、高效率、N型TOPCon 產品仍然處於一些短缺狀態。這就是為什麼我們仍然有信心明年將繼續增加訂單並擴大市場份額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our next question will come from Rajiv Chaudhri of Intrinsic Edge Capital Management.

    (操作員說明)我們的下一個問題將來自 Intrinsic Edge Capital Management 的 Rajiv Chaudhri。

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • Congratulations on a very strong quarter in what was a very difficult environment for the industry. I have a few questions. I want to start by asking if there were any charges -- inventory-related charges in the gross margin number in the third quarter?

    祝賀在行業非常困難的環境下取得了非常強勁的季度業績。我有幾個問題。我首先想問一下,第三季的毛利率中是否有任何費用——與庫存相關的費用?

  • Mengmeng Li - CFO

    Mengmeng Li - CFO

  • Rajiv, the answer is no.

    拉吉夫,答案是否定的。

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • Okay. And were there any charges in the selling and marketing or general and administrative expenses that were one-time expenses?

    好的。銷售和行銷費用或一般和管理費用中是否有任何一次性費用?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Excuse me, can you repeat that again?

    對不起,你能再說一次嗎?

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • Yes. Were there any one-time charges in the SG&A line items?

    是的。 SG&A 行項目中是否有一次性費用?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • We did have some, roughly, I think maybe USD 20 million, USD 25 million one-off pool for some previous litigation regarding one of the module contracts a long time ago. So it's one-time. I think it's in the other operating expenses not in the G&A expenses, but we did have some -- this USD 20 million one-off charge.

    我們確實有一些,粗略地,我認為可能是 2000 萬美元、2500 萬美元的一次性資金池,用於很久以前針對其中一份模組合約的一些訴訟。所以這是一次性的。我認為這是在其他營運費用中,而不是在一般管理費用中,但我們確實有一些——2000 萬美元的一次性費用。

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • Okay. And going back to the gross margin, I'm trying to understand what your cost of polysilicon was for the quarter. And the number I'm coming up with is around USD 16 on average, USD 16 per kilo on average (technical difficulty) between Chinese polysilicon and the U.S. polysilicon. Is that a fair estimate?

    好的。回到毛利率,我試圖了解本季的多晶矽成本是多少。我得出的數字是平均16美元左右,中國多晶矽和美國多晶矽平均每公斤16美元(技術難度)。這是一個公平的估計嗎?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Rajiv, we don't disclose the number, but you can look at the index and the China poly roughly I think in the range of RMB 60 per kg to RMB 90 per kg. But the polysilicon out of China is kind of I think 2x to 5x compared to China. It's different, the price.

    拉吉夫,我們不透露具體數字,但是你可以看一下指數和中國保利,我認為大概在每公斤60元到每公斤90元的範圍內。但我認為中國出口的多晶矽是中國出口的 2 到 5 倍。不一樣,就是價格。

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • Yes. Actually, DQ Energy just reported their ASP for the quarter was actually USD 7.60. So that is actually closer to RMB 50 per kg.

    是的。事實上,DQ Energy 剛剛報告其本季的平均售價實際上為 7.60 美元。所以實際上接近50元每公斤。

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Yes, you're right. There's a public index, right, for the poly and the calculations. But think about, we have the -- inventory turnover days is roughly 60 to 80 days. We have production lead times. You need to think about the time difference to do the calculations. But you can do the calculation based on the train, but the detail, the numbers, I think we have the supply chain advantage compared to market price. But we have different mix for the U.S. market, which is the market out of U.S., the poly price is different.

    你是對的。有一個公共索引,對吧,用於多邊形和計算。但想一想,我們的庫存週轉天數大約是 60 到 80 天。我們有生產交貨時間。您需要考慮時間差才能進行計算。但是你可以根據火車來計算,但是細節,數字,我認為與市場價格相比,我們有供應鏈優勢。但我們針對美國市場有不同的組合,這是美國以外的市場,多晶價格是不同的。

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • So Charlie, is it fair to say that because you have 60 to 80 days of inventory that your poly prices are always lagging the spot market by 60 to 80 days?

    那麼查理,可以公平地說,因為你們有 60 到 80 天的庫存,你們的多晶矽價格總是落後於現貨市場 60 到 80 天嗎?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Yes, you can do the estimation based on that.

    是的,您可以根據此進行估計。

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • Okay. My other question is about competition. At the prices where modules are right now, what percentage of the industry players between Tier 2 and Tier 3 do you think are losing money right now? And what percentage of these companies are cutting back on their production because they are below their -- the pricing is below their cash cost?

    好的。我的另一個問題是關於競爭。以目前模組的價格,您認為二級和三級之間的行業參與者目前虧損的比例是多少?這些公司中有多少百分比因為價格低於現金成本而削減產量?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • We have seen this situation in recent I think months for different utilization rates for different players in the industries. For Tier 1 integrated companies, like Jinko, we have order visibilities, very good mix for the N-type versus P-type. And we have good management cost. So for some orders with relatively low price, we are able to continue to deliver I think the reasonable margin of growth per (inaudible). But for the Tier 2, Tier 3 players, even some, let's say, they are not integrated, they are not international companies, they are reducing their utilization rate. So it's going to be different. It's going to be different situation for different companies. I think the Tier 1 top tier company will take the advantage to get more market shares.

    我認為最近幾個月我們已經看到了這種情況,行業中不同參與者的利用率不同。對於像晶科這樣的一級綜合公司,我們有訂單可見性,N 型與 P 型的組合非常好。而且我們有良好的管理成本。因此,對於一些價格相對較低的訂單,我們能夠繼續提供我認為合理的成長幅度(聽不清楚)。但對於二級、三級企業來說,甚至有一些,可以說,他們不是一體化的,他們不是國際公司,他們正在降低他們的利用率。所以情況會有所不同。對於不同的公司來說,情況會有所不同。我認為一級頂級公司將利用這一優勢來獲得更多市場份額。

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • Right. Do you see that happening already that Tier 3 companies are cutting back their production right now?

    正確的。您是否認為三級公司現在正在削減產量?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Yes, they are doing the utilization for Tier 2, Tier 3. They are lowering their utilization rate.

    是的,他們正在對第2層、第3層進行利用率。他們正在降低利用率。

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • So it is reasonable to think that your ASPs are going to be much higher than the spot market prices because you are selling into the utility market which is more contract-driven and a lot of the spot prices that Tier 3 companies are selling into really are fire sales?

    因此,可以合理地認為,您的平均售價將遠高於現貨市場價格,因為您正在向公用事業市場出售產品,而公用事業市場更加受合約驅動,許多三級公司出售的現貨價格實際上是減價銷售?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • It's fair to say that, but different companies have different mix to different countries and different mix to the DG-based utilities and different product mix. So I think for Jinko, we are confident. And we are -- combined together, our module price is relatively higher than the market price. It's not market price, it's small price you saw from the public website.

    可以這麼說,但不同的公司對不同的國家有不同的組合,對基於 DG 的公用事業和不同的產品組合有不同的組合。所以我認為對晶科來說,我們是有信心的。而且我們——綜合起來,我們的模組價格相對高於市場價格。這不是市場價格,而是你從公共網站上看到的小價格。

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • Charlie, can you also talk about what was the level of depreciation in the third quarter and the EBITDA for the third quarter?

    查理,您還能談談第三季的折舊水準和第三季的 EBITDA 是多少嗎?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Actually, we have disclosed the EBITDA. So including the details breakdown -- and you can look at the (technical difficulty) and we have detailed numbers, it's roughly USD 600 million. You can look at details including the calculation.

    事實上,我們已經揭露了 EBITDA。所以,包括細節細分——你可以看看(技術難度),我們有詳細的數字,大約是 6 億美元。您可以查看包括計算在內的詳細資訊。

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • I see. Okay. Sorry, I have not had a chance to look at that. Can you also talk about what percentage of the market, not Jinko, but the market this year will be TOPCon? And what the percentage will be next year in terms of how much TOPCon will be produced by the other companies?

    我懂了。好的。抱歉,我沒有機會看到這一點。您能否也談談市場的比例是多少,不是Jinko,而是今年的市場將是TOPCon?明年其他公司的 TOPCon 產量百分比是多少?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • This is the first year for N-type TOPCon to penetrate the market. And we think that the overall market size is 20%, 25% this year. We delivered 60%. And next year, it's possible N-type will achieve 60%, 70%. We are able to achieve I think over 85%.

    今年是 N 型 TOPCon 進入市場的第一年。我們認為今年整體市場規模是20%、25%。我們交付了 60%。而明年,N型可能會達到60%、70%。我認為我們能夠實現 85% 以上。

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • So if the market this year is over 400 gigawatts, you're saying that TOPCon this year is over 100 gigawatts?

    那如果今年的市集超過400吉瓦,那你是說今年的TOPCon超過100吉瓦?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Let me take it as the last follow-up. So roughly we estimate the total industry output for TOPCon in this year will be somewhere around 100 to 110 gigawatts. And so across which, Jinko will contribute around 70 gigawatt-ish. So next year the number definitely will be more than doubled for the total industries. We're expecting somewhere around 400 gigawatts. But definitely, Jinko will take a main part of it, but definitely not as big as this year.

    讓我把它當作最後的後續行動。因此,我們粗略估計今年 TOPCon 的產業總產量將在 100 至 110 吉瓦左右。因此,晶科能源將貢獻約 70 吉瓦左右的電力。所以明年整個產業的數量一定會增加一倍以上。我們預計發電量約為 400 吉瓦。但晶科肯定會佔據主要部分,但絕對不會像今年那麼大。

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • Okay. And finally one last question on the interest-bearing debt. You made a point that the interest-bearing debt came down in the third quarter. Is that something that we should expect will continue in Q4 and Q1?

    好的。最後一個關於有息債的問題。您提到第三季有息債務下降。我們應該期望第四季和第一季會繼續這種情況嗎?

  • Gener Miao - Former CMO

    Gener Miao - Former CMO

  • Yes, we are gradually decreasing the debt because our earnings increased gradually.

    是的,我們正在逐漸減少債務,因為我們的收入逐漸增加。

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • The operating cash flow for Asia company, we generated I think around this year -- for the first nine months it's around RMB 11 billion operating cash flows. That's significant improvement. So for the leverage, the total debt, we're expecting to continue to, let's say, decrease several steps.

    我認為,亞洲公司的營運現金流在今年左右就產生了——前 9 個月的營運現金流約為 110 億元。這是顯著的進步。因此,對於槓桿率,即總債務,我們預計將繼續減少幾個步驟。

  • Rajiv Chaudhri

    Rajiv Chaudhri

  • Great, and congratulations again.

    太棒了,再次恭喜。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our next question today will come from Alan Lau of Jefferies.

    (操作員說明)今天我們的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Alan Lau。

  • Alan Lau - Equity Associate

    Alan Lau - Equity Associate

  • So first of all, congratulations to the company and the very impressive results in 3Q and despite other peers are actually having declining profits quarter-over-quarter. So some of the questions on the details as to whether how is the U.S. shipment situation? So how much has the company shipped to the U.S.? And what is the view on 4Q shipment to the U.S.? And has the custom inspection improved, et cetera?

    首先,恭喜該公司在第三季取得了非常令人印象深刻的業績,儘管其他同業的利潤實際上逐季下降。那麼一些細節問題,美國的出貨情況如何?那麼該公司向美國運送了多少貨物?對第四季美國出貨量有何看法?海關檢查是否有改善等等?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • We just talked about the earnings contribution from the U.S. for Jinko in third quarter. And we have smooth earnings let's say, with CBP starting from July. In Q4, we delivered roughly 1.3, 1.4 gigawatts. And we are expecting stable shipments in Q4 versus Q3. And because a lot of inventory was detained in the first half year, so we shift a relatively high volume in third quarter. Fourth quarter, our production returned to normal standards and we shipped around similar numbers. But contributions -- earning contributions quarter-by-quarter improved. Third quarter, the contribution is not so big because of the inventory was produced 6 or 9 months ago. The cost, storage cost, production cost is relatively higher. But next year, we are expecting with some earnings from the U.S. shipments.

    我們剛才談到了美國對晶科第三季獲利的貢獻。可以說,從 7 月開始,CBP 的收入就很穩定。第四季度,我們交付了大約 1.3、1.4 吉瓦。我們預計第四季的出貨量將比第三季穩定。而且因為上半年滯留了大量的庫存,所以第三季我們的轉移量比較大。第四季度,我們的生產恢復到正常標準,出貨量也接近。但貢獻——收入貢獻逐季有所改善。第三季度,貢獻不大,因為庫存是六、九個月前生產的。成本、儲存成本、生產成本相對較高。但明年,我們預計美國出貨量將帶來一些收益。

  • Alan Lau - Equity Associate

    Alan Lau - Equity Associate

  • Understood. So what you mean is, because you have locked in the module price through the contract. And then as the input price is now declining, so you expect U.S. market will actually be improving a lot from Jinko's perspective, right?

    明白了。所以你的意思是,因為你透過合約鎖定了模組價格。然後,由於投入價格現在正在下降,從晶科的角度來看,您預計美國市場實際上會大幅改善,對吧?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Yes. If you look at the market, the market -- the module is high, because it was only can be supplied from the capacity out of China. There is a UFLPA issues for the industry in the last 12 months. And for Jinko specifically, because our inventory was produced long time ago and we get the process very smooth and starting from July and the relatively old inventory, the cost is very higher. So earning gross margin contribution is small for third quarter. But going forward, we expect the earning contribution will be improved very quickly quarter-by-quarter. And next year, Q1 will be in a very good position.

    是的。如果你看看市場,市場——模組很高,因為它只能由中國以外的產能供應。過去 12 個月,該行業存在 UFLPA 問題。特別是對於晶科來說,因為我們的庫存是很久以前生產的,而且我們的流程非常順利,而且從7月份開始,而且庫存相對較舊,所以成本非常高。因此第三季獲利毛利率貢獻較小。但展望未來,我們預期獲利貢獻將逐季快速提高。明年第一季將處於非常有利的位置。

  • Alan Lau - Equity Associate

    Alan Lau - Equity Associate

  • Understood. I think that is a very positive point that a lot of investors have not fully appreciated this. Thanks a lot for the clarity on this. And then my next question is, so everyone has been talking about the inventory in Europe. So how do we see it? And around how many days or months of inventory we have in Europe?

    明白了。我認為這是一個非常正面的觀點,但很多投資人還沒有完全意識到這一點。非常感謝您對此的澄清。我的下一個問題是,每個人都在談論歐洲的庫存。那我們要如何看待它呢?我們在歐洲大約有多少天或幾個月的庫存?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Yes. So approximately, in Europe market, that's our main DG-based market. So in that kind of segment, in my opinion, that's normally around two months of the local inventory plus the logistic time, maybe 1 month to 1.5 months should be reasonable. So total together, if you're taking from the manufacturer point of view, on average, it should take us 3 to 3.5 months of the volumes. That's the, let's say, normal or let's say the standard inventories across everyone. If you look into the seller's point or distributor's point, that's normally around approximately 2 months of the inventory.

    是的。因此,大約在歐洲市場,這是我們主要的基於 DG 的市場。因此,在我看來,在這種細分市場中,通常大約需要兩個月的本地庫存加上物流時間,也許 1 個月到 1.5 個月應該是合理的。因此,如果從製造商的角度來看,總的來說,我們平均需要 3 到 3.5 個月的時間才能完成大量生產。可以說,這是每個人的正常庫存或標準庫存。如果您查看賣家或分銷商的點,通常會發現大約 2 個月的庫存。

  • Alan Lau - Equity Associate

    Alan Lau - Equity Associate

  • Understood. So you think the current level is actually at 2 months and it is actually normal, right?

    明白了。所以你認為目前的水平實際上是2個月,這實際上是正常的,對吧?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • No, no, I'm saying for a DG-based distributor generated driven market, that's the market standard, let's say. At the current status, especially you mentioned in Europe, I think you know that because of the price is falling, so the end customer is having the hesitation to wait until the market price coming to the lower level. So that slows down the, let's say, the sales volume at the end customer side. That's the reason why from the channel's or the inventory's point of view, the inventory is higher than the normal situation. However, in my opinion, the end customer, the end market and demand is still there, but it just creates some hesitation. But I believe it takes maybe 1, 2 more months' time to observe, digest all the inventories across the whole channel, but the demand is still robust in Europe.

    不,不,我是說對於基於 DG 的經銷商產生的驅動市場,這就是市場標準。在目前的狀況下,特別是你提到的歐洲,我想你知道由於價格正在下跌,所以終端客戶正在猶豫要等到市場價格降到較低水平。因此,這會減緩最終客戶的銷售。這就是為什麼從通路或庫存的角度來看,庫存高於正常情況的原因。然而,在我看來,終端客戶、終端市場和需求仍然存在,只是產生了一些猶豫。但我認為可能還需要1、2個月的時間來觀察、消化整個渠道的所有庫存,但歐洲的需求仍然強勁。

  • Alan Lau - Equity Associate

    Alan Lau - Equity Associate

  • Understood. So could you share your view on the utility side of things in Europe? Because I think people have been focusing a lot on DG market in Europe. And actually inventory is mostly related to DG, but how about utility market in Europe?

    明白了。那麼您能分享一下您對歐洲公用事業的看法嗎?因為我認為人們一直非常關注歐洲的 DG 市場。實際上庫存主要與DG有關,但歐洲的公用事業市場又如何?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • In utility segment, not only in Europe, but across the whole globe, there's barely any inventories, a real inventory. So most of the inventory under the utility segment is more built (inaudible) deliver outside, but it's not a free inventory you can redirect to sell to others. So that's why even accounting basis, it is defined as inventory, but from a sales point of view, it is not available to sell. It's just the way to do the right timing or it's on the way to the destinations. That's why not only Europe, but across the whole world, that's more or less the situation in utility. Even if there's some inventory on the accounting basis, it should not be risky too much.

    在公用事業領域,不僅在歐洲,而且在整個全球範圍內,幾乎沒有任何庫存,真正的庫存。因此,公用事業部門下的大部分庫存更多的是在外部交付(聽不清楚),但這不是您可以重定向以出售給其他人的免費庫存。這就是為什麼即使在會計基礎上,它也被定義為庫存,但從銷售的角度來看,它是不可出售的。這只是選擇正確時機的方法,或是前往目的地的路上。這就是為什麼不只在歐洲,而且在全世界,效用方面或多或少都是這樣的情況。即使會計上有一些存貨,風險也不應該太大。

  • Alan Lau - Equity Associate

    Alan Lau - Equity Associate

  • Yes, I see your point. I think we'd like to know how is the demand in utility side of things like in U.S. or in Europe as well? Because will the decline in module prices stimulate more installation in the utility side? And how does that compensate with the interest?

    是的,我明白你的意思。我想我們想知道美國或歐洲等公用事業的需求如何?因為組件價格的下降會刺激公用事業方面更多的安裝嗎?這如何與利息相補償?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Yes. So firstly, the demand side, definitely, we see there's some more attractions for the end customer to continue to develop more solar projects in utility segment because IRR is becoming more and more attractive. The yield is higher and higher. However, it's a cycle. So when you develop a project, it doesn't happen at day one. It takes 12 months, 18 months, sometimes even 24 months, even more to have all this -- to finish the whole development cycle, even early financing to close the financing part to be ready to place orders to the module side. So it takes pretty long cycle. So my simple answer is yes, we see a very promising future, both U.S. and Europe, but it takes some time to have all those pipelines released to become a real order for the manufacturer like Jinko.

    是的。因此,首先,在需求方面,我們確實看到最終客戶對繼續在公用事業領域開發更多太陽能專案有更多的吸引力,因為 IRR 變得越來越有吸引力。產量越來越高。然而,這是一個循環。因此,當您開發一個專案時,它不會在第一天就發生。這一切需要12個月、18個月、有時甚至24個月、甚至更多才能完成——完成整個開發週期,甚至是早期融資以關閉融資部分,準備向模組方下訂單。所以需要相當長的周期。所以我的簡單答案是肯定的,我們看到美國和歐洲的未來非常有希望,但需要一些時間才能釋放所有這些管道,成為像晶科這樣的製造商的真正訂單。

  • And secondly for -- your question is regarding, sorry, I forgot your second question.

    其次,您的問題是關於,抱歉,我忘記了您的第二個問題。

  • Alan Lau - Equity Associate

    Alan Lau - Equity Associate

  • How does that compensate the increase in interest rate? Because in some of the earnings calls in the U.S. -- because banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America are saying that the increase in interest rate and also...

    這如何補償利率的上升?因為在美國的一些財報電話會議上——因為摩根大通和美國銀行等銀行表示,利率的上升以及…

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • The interest rate, I randomly checked with some customers. I won't say that's 100%, but I checked some key clients of us, and most of them, their feedback is positive. So because for the existing projects, even if their financial is closed, so normally they secure a fixed interest rate across the whole life cycle of their projects, investment cycles. So for them it's safe. And even with the module price coming down and they have more, let's say, returns for their investments or the interest rate doesn't hurt that part. And for the ongoing projects, because the interest rate is higher and most of the clients can pass the majority of the interest rate, higher interest rate cost to the end customers, to the PPA customers who can sign a more attractive PPA price than before. But definitely that won't be 100%, but that's my -- I share that point from the customer feedback.

    關於利率,我隨機詢問了一些客戶。我不會說這是 100%,但我檢查了我們的一些主要客戶,其中大多數客戶的回饋都是正面的。因為對於現有項目,即使他們的財務已經關閉,通常他們也會在專案的整個生命週期、投資週期中確保固定利率。所以對他們來說這是安全的。即使組件價格下降,他們有更多的投資回報或利率也不會損害這部分。而對於正在進行的項目,由於利率較高,而且大多數客戶可以轉嫁大部分利率,最終客戶的利率成本較高,對於PPA客戶來說,他們可以簽訂比以前更有吸引力的PPA價格。但肯定不會是 100%,但這是我的——我從客戶回饋中分享了這一點。

  • Alan Lau - Equity Associate

    Alan Lau - Equity Associate

  • That's definitely part of the -- some of the cases may happen. So I think, yes, my final question will be in relation to what is your view on -- what is the progress of your U.S. expansion capacity? And what is your view as of now as to the chance of capping the IRA subsidies, because there has been quite a lot of market chatters as to there are some lobbying happening in Washington, et cetera, to target against Chinese players? So we'd like to know, do you have an update on those?

    這絕對是其中的一部分——某些情況可能會發生。所以我想,是的,我的最後一個問題將與您的看法有關——您在美國的擴張產能的進展如何?目前,您對限制愛爾蘭共和軍補貼的可能性有何看法,因為市場上有許多議論,稱華盛頓等地正在進行針對中國企業的遊說活動?所以我們想知道,您有這些方面的最新消息嗎?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • No, we don't have a clear -- we are waiting for this detailed guidance -- official detailed guidance release as well. So I think it's still not finalized yet. So we are waiting for that as well. But for the U.S. market, we believe that's a very promising market. We're still holding our bullish positions on that. And we are trying to do whatever we can to serve the U.S. market. But we will take more actions once all those details get released.

    不,我們還沒有明確的——我們正在等待這份詳細的指導——官方的詳細指導發布。所以我認為它還沒有最終確定。所以我們也在等待。但對於美國市場,我們認為這是一個非常有前景的市場。我們仍然對此保持看漲立場。我們正在盡一切努力服務美國市場。但一旦所有這些細節公佈,我們將採取更多行動。

  • Alan Lau - Equity Associate

    Alan Lau - Equity Associate

  • So your plan will complete by the end of this year, right?

    那麼你的計畫將在今年底完成,對嗎?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • We will see. But the previous plans stick to what we have. And if your question is regarding whether we have new plans, we have to wait until the detailed guidance releases.

    我們會看到。但之前的計劃還是按照我們現有的計劃進行。如果您的問題是我們是否有新計劃,我們必須等到詳細指南發布。

  • Alan Lau - Equity Associate

    Alan Lau - Equity Associate

  • Okay. So your plant in Jacksonville, your 1 gigawatt plant, will be completed on time, right?

    好的。那麼你們在傑克遜維爾的工廠,你們的 1 吉瓦工廠,將會準時完工,對嗎?

  • Haiyun Cao - Director

    Haiyun Cao - Director

  • Yes, yes.

    是的是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • At this time, we will conclude our question and answer session. For any additional questions, please contact ir@jinkosolar.com. The conference has now concluded. We thank you for attending today's presentation. And you may now disconnect your lines.

    此時,我們的問答環節就結束了。如有任何其他問題,請聯絡 ir@jinkosolar.com。會議現已結束。我們感謝您參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路了。

  • [Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]

    [本文字記錄中標記為[已翻譯]的部分是由現場通話中的口譯員朗讀的。]