晶科能源 (JKS) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q1 2023 JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎來到晶科能源控股有限公司 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I now would like to turn the conference over to Stella Wang.

我現在想把會議轉交給 Stella Wang。

Thank you, operator. Thank you everyone for joining us today for JinkoSolar's first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. The company's results were released earlier today and are available on the company's IR website at www.jinkosolar.com as well as on Newswire Services. We have also provided a supplemental presentation for today's earnings call, which can also be found on the IR website.

謝謝你，運營商。感謝大家今天參加晶科能源 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。公司的業績於今天早些時候發布，可在公司的 IR 網站 www.jinkosolar.com 以及 Newswire Services 上查閱。我們還為今天的財報電話會議提供了補充介紹，也可以在 IR 網站上找到。

On the call today from JinkoSolar are Mr. Li Xiande, Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer of JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited; Mr. Gener Miao, Chief Marketing Officer of JinkoSolar Company Limited; Mr. Pan Li, Chief Financial Officer of JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited; and Mr. Charlie Cao, Chief Financial Officer of JinkoSolar Company Limited. Mr. Li will discuss JinkoSolar's business operations and the company highlights followed by Mr. Miao, who will talk about the sales and marketing; and then Mr. Pan Li, who will go through the financials. They will all be available to answer your questions during the Q&A session that follows.

JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited 董事長兼首席執行官李先德先生今天接到晶科能源的電話；晶科能源首席營銷官苗根兒先生；晶科能源控股有限公司首席財務官潘立先生；晶科能源有限公司首席財務官曹查理先生。李先生將討論晶科能源的業務運營和公司亮點，隨後苗先生將討論銷售和營銷；然後是潘力先生，他將負責財務。在接下來的問答環節中，他們都可以回答您的問題。

Please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements, made under the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. As such, our future results may be materially different from the views expressed today. Further information regarding this and other risks is included in JinkoSolar's public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. JinkoSolar does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required under the applicable law.

請注意，今天的討論將包含根據 1995 年美國私人證券訴訟改革法案的安全港條款作出的前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及固有的風險和不確定性。因此，我們未來的結果可能與今天表達的觀點存在重大差異。有關此風險和其他風險的更多信息包含在晶科能源向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中。晶科能源不承擔任何更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，適用法律要求的除外。

It's now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Li Xiande, Chairman and CEO of JinkoSolar Holdings. Mr. Li will speak in Mandarin and I will translate his comments into English. Please go ahead, Mr. Li.

現在很高興向大家介紹晶科能源董事長兼首席執行官李先德先生。李先生將用普通話發言，我會將他的評論翻譯成英文。請繼續，李先生。

(foreign language)

（外語）

We are pleased to deliver year-over-year improvements in module shipments total revenues and gross margins. With polysilicon prices being volatile in the first quarter, we adjusted our supply chain strategy to effectively control our costs. Meanwhile, the ratio of N-type product shipments approached nearly 50% of our total module shipments, thanks to their high efficiency and our strong global marketing network, which partially contributed to the improvement in our profitability.

我們很高興在模塊出貨總收入和毛利率方面實現同比改善。在一季度多晶矽價格波動的情況下，我們調整了供應鏈策略以有效控製成本。同時，得益於高效率和強大的全球營銷網絡，N型產品出貨量佔組件總出貨量的比例接近50%，這在一定程度上促進了我們盈利能力的提升。

Gross margin was 17.3% compared with 15.1% in the first quarter last year. Our profitability in the first quarter remained under pressure from the demurrage costs in the U.S. market. We have proactively taken measures to address this. And we have seen both the efficiency of customers' clearance and the size of our module shipments to the U.S. market gradually improve recently.

毛利率為 17.3%，而去年第一季度為 15.1%。我們在第一季度的盈利能力仍然受到美國市場滯期費成本的壓力。我們已積極採取措施解決這一問題。而且我們看到客戶的清關效率和我們對美國市場的組件出貨量最近都在逐漸改善。

As we continue to make effective progress, we expect our shipments to the U.S. market to gradually increase in the coming quarters. Recently, our majority-owned principal operating subsidiary, Jiangxi Jinko, successfully issued convertible bonds in the principal amount of RMB 10 billion to strongly support the expansion of our high efficient N-type capacity.

隨著我們不斷取得有效進展，我們預計未來幾個季度我們對美國市場的出貨量將逐漸增加。近期，我們控股的主營子公司江西晶科成功發行本金100億元人民幣的可轉換債券，有力支持我們高效N型產能的擴張。

Growth in PV demand in the first quarter remained strong despite some seasonal factors. The Chinese market benefit from falling prices of PV projects and delays in PV projects from 2022. The new installations of PV reached 33.7 gigawatts, this is an increase of 154.8% year-over-year. As a result, the cumulative installations of PV has surpassed the debt of hydro power for the first time, making PV the second largest power source in China.

儘管存在一些季節性因素，但一季度光伏需求的增長依然強勁。 2022年起，中國市場受益於光伏項目價格下跌和光伏項目延期。光伏新增裝機達到33.7吉瓦，同比增長154.8%。由此，光伏累計裝機首次超過水電負債，成為中國第二大電源。

In addition, exports of solar cells and modules from China to overseas markets remained strong in the first quarter. Total overseas shipments of modules and cells reached $13.1 billion in the first quarter, an increase of 15.3% year-over-year. Since the second quarter had pricing gains between different segments along the supply chain relatively stabilized with the price of polysilicon started to decrease moderately. And current module prices have been attractive for the economics of PV projects.

此外，第一季度中國對海外市場的太陽能電池和組件出口依然強勁。第一季度組件和電池的海外總出貨量達到131億美元，同比增長15.3%。二季度以來，供應鏈各環節價格漲幅相對穩定，多晶矽價格開始小幅回落。目前的組件價格對光伏項目的經濟性具有吸引力。

With more production volumes gradually released during the year, we believe polysilicon price declines will stimulate large market demand. The top manufacturers are expected to increase their market shares, thanks to stronger supply chain management, market footprint and the competitiveness of their R&D and products. We are optimistic about global market demand and opportunities brought by new technology in 2023. We will continue to invest in R&D and advanced N-type capacity to enhance our N-type entire leadership in terms of net production capabilities, product performance and cost, while exploring the PV class areas to proactively respond to competition.

隨著年內更多產能逐步釋放，我們認為多晶矽價格下跌將刺激較大的市場需求。得益於更強大的供應鏈管理、市場足跡以及研發和產品的競爭力，頂級製造商有望增加其市場份額。我們看好2023年全球市場需求和新技術帶來的機遇，我們將繼續投入研發和先進的N型產能，提升我們N型在淨產能、產品性能和成本方面的整體領先地位，同時開拓光伏類領域，積極應對競爭。

The second phase of 11 gigawatt TOPCon cell capacity in Jianshan has reached the full production and the average mass-produced efficiency of 182 N-type TOPCon cells reached 25.3%. We have also further improved our N-type ecological chain, constantly enhancing our all-around competitive advantages of N-type wafer, cell and module with improving supply chain management for key and auxiliary materials, iteration of core technologies and process improvement. As our technology, product performance and costs are all improving continuously. We expect to maintain our leading position in the industry.

尖山二期11吉瓦TOPCon電池片產能已達滿產，182片N型TOPCon電池片平均量產效率達到25.3%。我們還進一步完善了N型生態鏈，通過完善關鍵輔材供應鏈管理、核心技術迭代和工藝改進，不斷提升N型矽片、電池和組件的全方位競爭優勢。隨著我們的技術、產品性能和成本都在不斷提高。我們希望保持我們在行業中的領先地位。

Recently, we were ranked in the highest AAA category in the Q1 edition of PVTech's ModuleTech Bankability Report, a recognition by the industry of our advantages from outstanding manufacturing, finance and technology. By the end of the first quarter, our cumulative N-type module shipments exceeded 16 gigawatts, providing support for hundreds of projects globally in the last -- in the past year.

最近，我們在 PVTech 第一季度的 ModuleTech 可融資性報告中被評為最高 AAA 類別，這是業界對我們在卓越製造、金融和技術方面優勢的認可。截至第一季度末，我們的N型組件累計出貨量超過16吉瓦，在過去的一年里為全球數百個項目提供了支持。

In January this year, we launched the Second-Generation Tiger Neo panel family. The module efficiency of the upgraded Tiger Neo family of 445Wp for 54-cell, 615Wp for 72-cell and 635Wp for 78-cell were up to 22.27%, 23.23% and 22.72% respectively. Meanwhile, we increased investments in energy storage business, furthering its development and continuously provided our clients with high efficient, reliable and safe solutions at competitive costs to lead the clean energy transformation.

今年 1 月，我們推出了第二代 Tiger Neo 面板家族。升級後的Tiger Neo家族54片445Wp、72片615Wp、78片635Wp的組件效率分別達到22.27%、23.23%和22.72%。同時，我們加大對儲能業務的投入，推動儲能業務進一步發展，持續以具有競爭力的成本為客戶提供高效、可靠、安全的解決方案，引領清潔能源轉型。

In conclusion, future competition will be based on comprehensive strength. We are confident in our ability to further increase our competitiveness and profitability in the global market with our continuously improved global industrial chain and cutting-edge N-type technology and products.

總之，未來的競爭將以綜合實力為主。我們有信心憑藉我們不斷完善的全球產業鍊和尖端的N型技術和產品，進一步提升我們在全球市場的競爭力和盈利能力。

Before turning over to Gener, I would like to go over our guidance for the second quarter and full year of 2023. By the end of this year, we expect mass-produced N-type cell efficiency to reach 25.8% and high-efficient N-type cell capacity to account for over 70% of our total solar cell capacity. We are confident we will achieve our module shipment target set at the beginning of the year with N-type modules accounting for about 60% of total module shipments. We expect the module shipments to be in the range of 16 to 18 gigawatts for the second quarter of 2023.

在轉向 Gener 之前，我想回顧一下我們對 2023 年第二季度和全年的指導。到今年年底，我們預計量產的 N 型電池效率將達到 25.8%，高效 N型電池容量占我們太陽能電池總容量的70%以上。我們有信心實現年初設定的組件出貨目標，N 型組件佔組件總出貨量的 60% 左右。我們預計 2023 年第二季度的組件出貨量將在 16 至 18 吉瓦之間。

Thank you. Total shipments in the first quarter reached about 14.5 gigawatts, of which about 90% are module shipment, setting a new high. From a regional perspective, China and Europe accounted for over 60% of the total shipments. Shipments in China market increased more than two-fold on a year-over-year basis, while that to Europe market has grown over 50% year-over-year. In addition, emerging markets like Latin America and the Middle East, North Africa also made a remarkable contribution.

謝謝。一季度總出貨量達到約14.5吉瓦，其中約90%為組件出貨，創下新高。從區域來看，中國和歐洲佔總出貨量的60%以上。中國市場的出貨量同比增長超過兩倍，而歐洲市場的出貨量同比增長超過 50%。此外，拉丁美洲和中東、北非等新興市場也做出了顯著貢獻。

Recently, the industry value chain price has gradually returned to a normal level and the domestic utility scale PV projects have started their speed (inaudible). The current module price is acceptable to clients which can support them to achieve their pre-determined installation target at a stable order pace. We expect that the decrease of industrial supply chain price will drive the growth of utility-scale PV demand, especially in China market.

近期，產業價值鏈價格逐漸回歸正常水平，國內公用事業規模光伏項目開始提速（聽不清）。目前的組件價格對客戶來說是可以接受的，可以支持他們以穩定的訂單速度實現預定的安裝目標。我們預計工業供應鏈價格的下降將推動公用事業規模光伏需求的增長，尤其是在中國市場。

The European PV market has racked the potential. And the decrease in industrial chain prices is expected to further drive demand for distributed and utility-scale power stations. The U.S. market has robust demand and some utility-scale power station demand may be delayed until 2023 due to price factors and the supply constraints with expected 40 gigawatts DC of PV installed capacity in 2020 -- in U.S. by 2023.

歐洲光伏市場潛力巨大。而產業鏈價格的下降有望進一步拉動對分佈式和公用事業規模電站的需求。美國市場需求旺盛，由於價格因素和預計 2023 年美國 2020 年 40 吉瓦直流光伏裝機容量的供應限制，一些公用事業規模的電站需求可能會推遲到 2023 年。

Over the past year, we have continuously improved our risk management capabilities, continuously improved our supply chain visibility system and maintained close communication and coordination with customers, suppliers and other parties to jointly promote the efficiency of the customer clearance in the U.S. Based on the experience of supply chain construction and the marketing network layout, we are committed to meeting our customer delivery with outstanding products and services.

一年來，我們不斷提升風險管理能力，不斷完善供應鏈可視化體系，與客戶、供應商等各方保持密切溝通協調，共同提升美國客戶通關效率。通過供應鏈建設和營銷網絡佈局，我們致力於以卓越的產品和服務滿足客戶交付。

Regarding the products, Tiger Neo achieved a shipment volume of near 60 gigawatts in the first quarter, maintaining a competitive premium. China, Europe and emerging markets have become the main contributor to shipments. At the same time, we observed that Tiger Neo is accelerating its penetration in markets like Asia. Recently, we were awarded the type of (inaudible) #1 Module Brand for 2022 by (inaudible).

產品方面，Tiger Neo一季度出貨量近60GW，保持溢價競爭力。中國、歐洲和新興市場已成為出貨量的主要貢獻者。同時，我們觀察到Tiger Neo正在加速在亞洲等市場的滲透。最近，我們被（聽不清）授予 2022 年（聽不清）#1 模塊品牌類型。

Tiger Neo not only has multiple advantages such as high conversion efficiency, high power output and the bifacial factors, but also leads the industry in terms of degradation rates, temperature coefficient and weak light performance, meeting customers' demand for household scenarios. With the release of N-type capacity and the continuous improvement of Tiger Neo's product performance, Tiger Neo's penetration rate and premium are expected to continue to lead the market.

Tiger Neo不僅具備高轉換效率、高功率輸出、雙面組件等多重優勢，而且在退化率、溫度係數、弱光性能等方面也領先於行業，滿足客戶對家居場景的需求。隨著N型產能的釋放和Tiger Neo產品性能的不斷提升，Tiger Neo的滲透率和溢價有望繼續領跑市場。

In terms of business, distribution market accounted for more than 40% in the first quarter. Considering the sustained demand for utility-scale power stations this year, we expect the proportion of distribution to be around 40% for the whole year. In 2023, our order book visibility exceeds 60% with the majority being overseas orders. As upstream raw material cost decrease, we expect the module market price to experience a slight decline. Our signing price will fluctuate within a reasonable range in line with market trends. We will continue to focus on customer-centric approaches to provide high quality products and services to our customers. At the same time, we will adjust our marketing strategy to flexible according to market conditions.

業務方面，一季度分銷市場佔比超過40%。考慮到今年公用事業規模電站需求持續，我們預計全年配電佔比在40%左右。 2023年，我們的訂單可見度超過60%，其中大部分是海外訂單。隨著上游原材料成本下降，我們預計組件市場價格將出現小幅下滑。我們的簽約價格將根據市場趨勢在合理範圍內波動。我們將繼續專注於以客戶為中心的方法，為我們的客戶提供高質量的產品和服務。同時，我們會根據市場情況靈活調整營銷策略。

With that, I will turn the call over to Pan.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給潘。

Thank you, Gener. We are pleased to report a year-over-year increase of about 73% in our shipments in the first quarter with strong demand from global markets. In response to the polysilicon price decline, we adjusted our procurement strategy and achieved significant year-on-year growth in key financial metrics, including revenue, gross profit and operating margin.

謝謝你，根。我們很高興地報告，由於全球市場的強勁需求，我們第一季度的出貨量同比增長約 73%。為應對多晶矽價格下跌，我們調整了採購策略，實現了收入、毛利和營業利潤率等關鍵財務指標的同比顯著增長。

Let me go into more details now. Total revenue was RMB 3.4 billion, an increase of 58% year-on-year. Gross margin was 17.3% compared with 14% in the fourth quarter and 15.1% in the first quarter of last year. The sequential and year-over-year increase were mainly due to the decrease in the cost of polysilicon and the increase in shipments of N-type modules which have a premium compared with P-type modules.

現在讓我詳細介紹一下。總收入為人民幣34億元，同比增長58%。毛利率為 17.3%，第四季度為 14%，去年第一季度為 15.1%。環比和同比增長主要是由於多晶矽成本下降和N型組件出貨量增加，與P型組件相比有溢價。

Total operating expenses were RMB 412 million, down 21% sequentially and up 29% year-over-year. The sequential decrease was mainly due to a decrease in shipping costs for solar modules and a decrease in impairment loss on property, plant and equipment. And the year-over-year increase was mainly attributed to an increase in loss of disposal on PPE and increase in demurrage charges.

總運營費用為人民幣 4.12 億元，環比下降 21%，同比增長 29%。環比下降主要是由於太陽能組件的運輸成本下降以及物業、廠房和設備的減值損失減少。同比增長主要歸因於 PPE 處置損失的增加和滯期費的增加。

Total operating expenses accounted for about 12% of total revenues compared with even in the fourth quarter and 15% in the first quarter last year, improving year-over-year. Operating margin was over 5% compared with 2% in the fourth quarter. Excluding the impact of the change in fair value of notes, a change in fair value of long-term investments and our share-based compensation expenses, adjusted net income attributed to JinkoSolar Holding Company Limited ordinary shareholders was over RMB 121 million, up over 2x sequentially and up 1.5x year-over-year.

總運營費用佔總收入的比重約為 12%，與去年第四季度和去年第一季度的 15% 相比，同比有所改善。營業利潤率超過 5%，而第四季度為 2%。剔除票據公允價值變動、長期投資公允價值變動和我們的股權激勵費用的影響，調整後歸屬於晶科能源普通股股東的淨利潤超過人民幣 1.21 億元，增長超過 2 倍環比增長 1.5 倍。

Moving to the balance sheet. At the end of the first quarter, our cash and cash equivalents were about RMB 1.5 billion, down from RMB 1.6 billion at the end of the fourth quarter and compared with RMB 2.7 billion at the end of the first quarter of last year. Total debt was about RMB 4.4 billion at the end of the first quarter compared to RMB 4 billion at the end of the fourth quarter last year. Net debt was about RMB 2.9 billion compared to RMB 2.3 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of last year and our total debt profile has improved.

轉到資產負債表。一季度末，我們的現金及現金等價物約為人民幣15億元，低於四季度末的人民幣16億元和去年一季度末的人民幣27億元。第一季度末總債務約為人民幣 44 億元，而去年第四季度末為人民幣 40 億元。淨債務約為人民幣 29 億元，而去年第四季度末為人民幣 23 億元，我們的總債務狀況有所改善。

This concludes our prepared remarks. We are now happy to take your questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs & Company.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自高盛公司的 Brian Lee。

I guess, the first question I have is just around the ASP environment. I know you guys have seen some good margin expansion here quarter-on-quarter, it sounds like most of that was driven by the decline in polysilicon cost. So what's the status of that? How much more sort of leverage do you have to lower polysilicon costs relative to what you're shipping out and your inventory base today? And then can you kind of give us a sense of what you expect module ASP trends to look like into 2Q and maybe the back half of the year? We are hearing there's sort of double-digit declines in certain markets for solar panels. So wondering where your pricing strategy kind of is trending for the next few quarters?

我想，我的第一個問題是關於 ASP 環境的。我知道你們在這裡看到了季度環比的良好利潤率增長，聽起來大部分是由多晶矽成本下降推動的。那麼它的狀態如何呢？相對於你今天的出貨量和你的庫存基礎，你有多少槓桿來降低多晶矽成本？然後你能告訴我們你期望模塊 ASP 趨勢在 2Q 和下半年看起來像什麼嗎？我們聽說某些太陽能電池板市場出現了兩位數的下滑。想知道接下來幾個季度您的定價策略的趨勢是什麼？

Brian, this is Gener. Firstly, about the price side. So the market price is somehow stable in Q1 and the Q2, mainly in the first half. So I don't see there's too much, let's say, different opinion across the industry about the first half module price. But for the second half module price, we have seen some different opinions about -- based on different expectation of the polysilicon price. However, in our opinion, the polysilicon price might steadily going down step-by-step. We are not expecting a significant free fall over the second half, but we are more expecting a stable stepping down quarter-over-quarter. So based on that expectation, I think that's how we expect the module price will go for the rest of the year. And I hope that answers your question.

布賴恩，這是杰納。首先，關於價格方面。所以市場價格在一季度和二季度比較穩定，主要是在上半年。因此，我認為整個行業對上半年模塊價格沒有太多不同意見。但對於下半年的組件價格，我們看到了一些不同的意見——基於對多晶矽價格的不同預期。不過，我們認為，多晶矽價格可能逐步穩中有降。我們預計下半年不會出現大幅自由落體，但我們更期待季度環比穩定下降。因此，基於這種預期，我認為這就是我們對今年剩餘時間模塊價格的預期。我希望這能回答你的問題。

And then maybe just -- I know you made some comments around the U.S. end market. Can you give us your latest thoughts around shipping into the country? How you're navigating the UFLPA? And then also any thoughts around manufacturing or expanding your manufacturing base domestically in the U.S.?

然後也許只是——我知道你對美國終端市場發表了一些評論。你能告訴我們你對運送到該國的最新想法嗎？你是如何駕馭 UFLPA 的？然後還有關於在美國國內製造或擴大製造基地的想法嗎？

So for the U.S. market side, I think we are closely working with our suppliers given some suppliers to make sure we can provide the documents or feasibility documents needed for the UFLPA. We have successfully done that quite -- based on quite a lot of shipments in the last quarters. And we are expecting with more and more experience, we can ship or we can get more approved based on what we are doing right now, at least that's the expectations. And based on that, we are planning to resume our shipments in U.S. market gradually. And we hope we can get back to a relatively stable or, let's say -- or make the situation under control in the next quarters, let's say, 2 to 3 quarters.

因此，對於美國市場方面，我認為我們正在與我們的供應商密切合作，因為一些供應商可以確保我們能夠提供 UFLPA 所需的文件或可行性文件。基於上個季度的大量出貨量，我們已經成功地做到了這一點。我們期望隨著越來越多的經驗，我們可以發貨，或者我們可以根據我們現在正在做的事情獲得更多的批准，至少這是期望。基於此，我們計劃逐步恢復在美國市場的發貨。我們希望我們能夠回到相對穩定的狀態，或者說——或者讓情況在接下來的幾個季度得到控制，比如說 2 到 3 個季度。

And last question for me. I don't know if I might have missed it, maybe you didn't provide it, but can you get the what the CapEx was in the quarter? What the free cash flow was in the quarter? And then any thoughts on kind of the financing needs and strategy for the rest of the year to cover the CapEx here?

最後一個問題問我。我不知道我是否可能錯過了它，也許你沒有提供它，但你能知道本季度的資本支出是多少嗎？該季度的自由現金流量是多少？然後對今年剩餘時間的融資需求和戰略有何想法，以涵蓋此處的資本支出？

Brian, this is Charlie. We have the subsidiary, the JinkoSolar. We have completed the RMB 10 billion convertible bonds in Chinese capital markets recently. Second one is the CapEx is in a range of RMB 1.5 billion to RMB 2 billion. And the focus is to solidify our leading position in N-type, the supply chain, including the wafer, cell and the module capacities. And we're expecting the performance -- if you look at the Q1 performance, it's pretty good. We continue to expand -- expect the expansion of the gross margin and our profitability. And the operating cash flows last year, it's kind of the -- I think it's around RMB 0.4 billion and continue to improve. So the financing is already there and it's sufficiently enough to meet our needs for the CapEx.

布賴恩，這是查理。我們有子公司晶科能源。我們最近在中國資本市場完成了人民幣100億元的可轉換債券。第二個是資本支出在 15 億元至 20 億元人民幣之間。重點是鞏固我們在 N 型供應鏈（包括晶圓、電池和模塊產能）方面的領先地位。我們期待著表現——如果你看一下第一季度的表現，那是相當不錯的。我們繼續擴張——期待毛利率和盈利能力的擴張。去年的經營現金流，有點——我認為大約是 4 億元人民幣，而且還在繼續改善。所以融資已經存在，足以滿足我們對資本支出的需求。

(Operator Instructions) And the next question comes from Philip Shen with ROTH MKM.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 ROTH MKM 的 Philip Shen。

First one, as a follow-up to Brian on the UFLPA question, how many gigawatts have been released thus far in the U.S.? And how many gigawatts do you have detained in total?

第一個，作為 Brian 關於 UFLPA 問題的後續行動，到目前為止美國已經釋放了多少吉瓦？您總共扣押了多少吉瓦？

First, I think we have significantly starting from Q4 last year in our modules and under UFLPA has started to go through the cost and to our customers. And we have I think achieved a significant amount of the module shipments. And for the detained, I don't think we have a very, very small and tiny. And the most important thing is, looking forward, we think the mechanism has already been there and we have visibility, a very strong feasibility capabilities. And we expect quarter-by-quarter our shipment with U.S. will improve gradually. And hopefully, we think it's possible in the third quarter, our shipments with U.S. will be back to normal situations.

首先，我認為我們從去年第四季度開始在我們的模塊和 UFLPA 下已經開始通過成本和我們的客戶。我認為我們已經實現了大量的模塊出貨量。對於被拘留者，我不認為我們有非常非常小的。最重要的是，展望未來，我們認為該機制已經存在，並且我們具有可見性，非常強大的可行性能力。我們預計每個季度我們與美國的出貨量將逐漸改善。希望我們認為有可能在第三季度，我們對美國的出貨量將恢復正常。

So of the more than 60% of the order book visibility, can you talk about how much of that do you expect to go to the U.S.?

那麼在超過 60% 的訂單簿可見性中，您能談談您希望其中有多少流向美國嗎？

Phil, this year, the total volume we are planning to send to U.S. will be around 5% across the whole year's shipment plan, because like Charlie is saying, we will gradually resume our shipment trends and revenue recognition, but the course of the time consuming of the logistics, the UFLPA, et cetera. So the revenue side, it won't be too much. That's why we say around 5%, maybe 5% to 10% -- between 5% to 10%.

菲爾，今年我們計劃發送到美國的總量將佔全年出貨計劃的 5% 左右，因為就像查理說的，我們將逐漸恢復我們的出貨趨勢和收入確認，但隨著時間的推移消耗物流、UFLPA 等。所以收入方面，不會太多。這就是為什麼我們說大約 5%，也許是 5% 到 10%——在 5% 到 10% 之間。

So 5% to 10% of the annual guidance is roughly 65 gigawatts. And then our work suggests that the non-China module -- non-China poly modules that you have that can access the U.S. market is roughly 5 gigawatts annually. Does that sound right? And then is it the case that you can smoothly import modules that contain non-China poly now, so there's no issue there at all?

因此，年度指導的 5% 到 10% 大約是 65 吉瓦。然後我們的工作表明，非中國模塊——你擁有的可以進入美國市場的非中國多晶矽模塊每年大約 5 吉瓦。聽起來對嗎？那麼現在是不是可以順利導入包含非中國poly的模塊，就完全沒有問題了？

Currently, we are planning with multiple resources of polysilicon, at least we are trying to do, because if we rely on a single resource of polysilicon, it might significantly constrained the capability of the supply to U.S. market. Personally, I still believe that might be a challenge for the U.S. customers as well. So that's what we are trying to do.

目前，我們正在規劃多晶矽的多種資源，至少我們正在努力這樣做，因為如果我們依賴單一的多晶矽資源，它可能會大大限制對美國市場的供應能力。就我個人而言，我仍然認為這對美國客戶來說也可能是一個挑戰。這就是我們正在努力做的。

And then shifting back to margins for a bit or to margins for a bit. Can you give us a sense for what -- how do you expect margins to trend in Q2 and Q3, especially given the ASP comments that you had earlier? Do you expect the margin expansion in Q2 and then in Q3 perhaps your margins compress a little bit with similar as to back half pricing?

然後移回邊距一點或邊距一點。你能告訴我們什麼 - 你如何看待第二季度和第三季度的利潤率趨勢，特別是考慮到你之前的 ASP 評論？您是否預計第二季度的利潤率會擴大，然後在第三季度可能您的利潤率會壓縮一點，類似於後半價？

I think the market-wise, we have the confidence to gradually improve, at least that's what we believe, because thanks to the new technologies, N-type, TOPCon-based value, which is highly appreciated by the end market and it did create additional value to the customers. So based on the value -- additional value sharing business models, we definitely have the confidence to gradually improve our gross margins.

我認為在市場方面，我們有信心逐步改善，至少我們是這麼認為的，因為得益於新技術，N 型，基於 TOPCon 的價值，受到終端市場的高度讚賞，它確實創造了為客戶帶來額外價值。所以基於價值——附加價值共享的商業模式，我們絕對有信心逐步提高我們的毛利率。

One last question. As it relates to U.S. expansion, I think Brian asked the question. I just want to check in to see if you can give a little more color on the timing of that? My guess is you have to wait for the domestic content rules to be out? And then what do you see for U.S. module pricing trends? Do you think maybe by year, between this year, 2024 and 2025?

最後一個問題。由於它與美國的擴張有關，我認為布賴恩問了這個問題。我只是想檢查一下，看看您是否可以在時間上多加一點色彩？我的猜測是你必須等待國內內容規則出來嗎？那麼您如何看待美國組件定價趨勢？你認為可能是在今年、2024 年到 2025 年之間？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I think we missed the last question. I have to briefly talk about it then we can pick up the next one. So regarding the U.S. expansion, we have the confidence, we have the plan to do it. But for sure, we are still waiting for some more clarification on the policy side and/or approval on the policy side. We are closely following that. Hopefully, we can get some clearance good to go in the next coming weeks or months, we will see.

我想我們錯過了最後一個問題。我必須簡要地談談它，然後我們才能開始下一個。所以對於美國的擴張，我們有信心，我們有計劃去做。但可以肯定的是，我們仍在等待政策方面的更多澄清和/或政策方面的批准。我們正在密切關注這一點。希望我們能在接下來的幾週或幾個月內獲得一些許可，讓我們拭目以待。

(Operator Instructions) And the next question comes from Alan Lau with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Alan Lau。

Congratulations for the really great results and the margin expansion. So my first question is, I would like to know how much did the port charges related to the detainment in the U.S. border has went down and if this is going to be zero going forward? And would that -- how much would that contribute to the margin expansion?

祝賀真正偉大的結果和利潤率的擴大。所以我的第一個問題是，我想知道與美國邊境拘留相關的港口費用下降了多少，未來是否會為零？那會 - 這對利潤率擴張有多大貢獻？

In the first quarter, we have roughly RMB 300 million to RMB 400 million, the demurrage and the additional storage costs for the U.S. shipment situations. And it's roughly -- I think it's 2%, 1.5% to 2% gross margin impact. And we're expecting in Q2 it will dramatically decrease to maybe 25% of the Q1 level. So it's going to contribute I think at least 1% gross margin expansion.

第一季度，我們大約有 3 億到 4 億人民幣，美國出貨情況的滯期費和額外的倉儲費用。粗略地說，我認為這是 2%、1.5% 到 2% 的毛利率影響。我們預計在第二季度它會急劇下降到第一季度水平的 25%。所以我認為這將有助於至少 1% 的毛利率增長。

So another question is, I would like to know how much is the poly prices for the polysilicon purchase from WACC? So is it the same? Is it going down at the same pace as the polysilicon price in China or it's going down a bit slower?

那麼另一個問題是，我想知道從 WACC 購買多晶矽的多晶矽價格是多少？那麼是一樣的嗎？它是與中國的多晶矽價格同步下降還是下降得更慢一些？

So it's really confidential, but it's a separate market. The poly out of China -- the main purpose is for the U.S. markets. And it's -- no expansion of capacity for the poly outside of China. So it's kind of already, let's say, very [short-haul] supply situations and the prices is very sticky and there's different situation in China for poly, supply is sufficient and we expect maybe some relatively oversupply situation in the fourth quarter this year. So it's a kind of different pricing depending on different situations.

所以它真的很機密，但它是一個單獨的市場。聚出中國——主要目的是為了美國市場。而且它 - 沒有擴大中國以外的保利產能。因此，可以說，供應情況非常[短途]，價格非常粘，中國的多晶情況不同，供應充足，我們預計今年第四季度可能會出現相對供過於求的情況。所以這是一種根據不同的情況不同的定價。

So is it possible that if the U.S. customs accepted some of the Tongwei polysilicon, then your shipment to the U.S. will get even higher margin because you get effectively cheaper polysilicon, right?

那麼有沒有可能，如果美國海關接受了一些通威多晶矽，那麼你運往美國的利潤會更高，因為你得到了更便宜的多晶矽，對吧？

I think it will really depend on the market principles, right? So it's supply versus demand. Like is saying, the polysilicon of non-China polysilicon is (inaudible) short of supply. And the end market is very strong. So definitely it creates a favorable market for the upper stream players. If we have additional polysilicon approved, definitely, it will make the situation easier. But how far it will go, it depends on -- finally, it's still the supply versus demand. So we will see.

我認為這真的取決於市場原則，對吧？所以這是供求關係。就像在說，非中國多晶矽的多晶矽（聽不清）供不應求。而且終端市場非常強勁。因此，這無疑為上游玩家創造了一個有利的市場。如果我們批准了額外的多晶矽，肯定會使情況變得更容易。但它能走多遠，取決於——最後，它仍然是供求關係。所以我們會看到。

I think my last question is in relation to the Southeast Asia capacity expansion plan. So what is the latest plan in terms of the Southeast Asia capacity expansion?

我想我的最後一個問題是關於東南亞產能擴張計劃的。那麼在東南亞產能擴張方面，最新的計劃是什麼？

Currently, we have 7 gigawatts integrated capacity, but we have plan to expand the capacity in (inaudible) And it's possibly reach to maybe 11% -- 11 gigawatt to 12 gigawatt integrated capacity by the end of this year.

目前，我們有 7 吉瓦的綜合容量，但我們計劃擴大（聽不清）的容量，到今年年底可能達到 11%——11 吉瓦到 12 吉瓦的綜合容量。

(Operator Instructions) That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.

（操作員說明）今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。