晶科能源 (JKS) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by for JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們，先生們，您好，感謝您參與晶科能源控股有限公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call to Ms. Stella Wang, JinkoSolar's Investor Relations. Please proceed, Stella.

提醒一下，今天的電話會議正在錄音中。我現在想將會議轉交給您的主持人，以便今天致電晶科能源投資者關係部的 Stella Wang 女士。請繼續，斯黛拉。

Thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today for JinkoSolar's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. The company's results were released earlier today and are available on the company's IR website at www.jinkosolar.com as well as Newswire services.

謝謝你，接線員。感謝大家今天參加晶科能源 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。該公司的業績今天早些時候發布，可在公司的投資者關係網站 www.jinkosolar.com 以及 Newswire 服務上查閱。

We have also provided a supplemental presentation for today's earnings call, which can also be found on the IR website.

我們還為今天的財報電話會議提供了補充演示文稿，也可以在 IR 網站上找到。

On the call today from JinkoSolar are Mr. Xiande, Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer of JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd; Mr. Gener Miao, Chief Marketing Officer of JinkoSolar Co., Ltd; Mr. Pan Li, Chief Financial Officer of JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd; and Mr. Charlie Cao, Chief Financial Officer of JinkoSolar Co., Ltd.

晶科能源今天接聽電話的是晶科能源控股有限公司董事長兼首席執行官先德先生；晶科能源首席營銷官苗根先生；晶科能源首席財務官潘力先生；以及晶科能源首席財務官曹查理先生。

Mr. Li will discuss JinkoSolar's business operations and company highlights; followed by Mr. Miao, who will talk about the cells and marketing; and then Mr. Pan Li, who will go through the financials. They will all be available to answer your questions during the Q&A session that follows. Please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements made under the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

李總將討論晶科能源的業務運營和公司亮點；接下來是繆先生，他將談論細胞和營銷；然後是潘力先生，他將通過財務。在隨後的問答環節中，他們都可以回答您的問題。請注意，今天的討論將包含根據 1995 年美國私人證券訴訟改革法案的安全港條款作出的前瞻性陳述。

Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. As such, our future results may be materially different from the views expressed today. Further information regarding this and other risks is included in JinkoSolar's public filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

前瞻性陳述涉及固有風險和不確定性。因此，我們未來的結果可能與今天表達的觀點大不相同。有關此風險和其他風險的更多信息包含在晶科能源向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中。

JinkoSolar does not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required under the applicable law. It's now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Xiande Li, Chairman and CEO of JinkoSolar Holding. Mr. Li will speak in Mandarin, and I will translate his comments into English. Please go ahead, Mr. Li.

除適用法律要求外，晶科能源不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。現在很高興向大家介紹晶科能源董事長兼CEO李先德先生。李先生會說普通話，我會把他的評論翻譯成英文。請繼續，李先生。

We are pleased to announce better-than-expected results for the quarter despite a number of headwinds, such as the continued rises in raw material prices, power rationing measures at our manufacturing facilities and our earthquake in Sichuan province, where one of our manufacturing facility is based. Total solar shipments in the third quarter were roughly 10.9 gigawatts doubling year-over-year.

儘管存在許多不利因素，例如原材料價格持續上漲、我們的製造工廠採取限電措施以及我們的製造工廠之一四川省發生地震，我們很高興地宣布本季度業績好於預期基於。第三季度太陽能總出貨量約為 10.9 吉瓦，同比翻番。

Total revenues were $2.7 billion, an increase of 17.8% year-over-year. We kept improving our supply chain management to enhance cost control with release of newly invested N-Type-cell capacity. We further optimized our integrated cost structure achievements of more competitive end-type products increased significantly compared with the second quarter.

總收入為 27 億美元，同比增長 17.8%。隨著新投資N型電池產能的釋放，我們不斷完善供應鏈管理，加強成本控制。我們進一步優化了綜合成本結構，更有競爭力的終端類型產品較二季度顯著增長。

Profitability in the third quarter largely improved sequentially. Gross margin was 15.7% compared with 14.7% in the second quarter. Net income was USD$77.3 million, an increase of 183.1% year-over-year. Excluding the impact of the convertible senior notes and the share-based compensation expenses, adjusted net income was $60.1 million, improving 16.1% sequentially.

第三季度的盈利能力環比大幅改善。毛利率為 15.7%，而第二季度為 14.7%。淨利潤為 7730 萬美元，同比增長 183.1%。剔除可轉換優先票據和股權激勵費用的影響，調整後的淨收入為 6010 萬美元，環比增長 16.1%。

Since the start of the fourth quarter, polysilicon capacity has been gradually released. Demand is strong in the China market encouraged by non-hydro renewables consumption targets, both provincially guaranteed utility scale projects and utility-scale projects in a liberalized power market are making rapid progress. Adding the demand from DG market, we expect that the total installation in China will be over 40 gigawatts in the fourth quarter.

四季度以來，多晶矽產能逐步釋放。在非水電可再生能源消費目標的推動下，中國市場需求強勁，省級保障的公用事業規模項目和自由化電力市場中的公用事業規模項目都取得了快速進展。加上分佈式發電市場的需求，我們預計第四季度中國的總裝機量將超過 40 吉瓦。

While supply has increased recently, strong demand is keeping polysilicon presses steady at a high level and currently, the module prices remain stable. With substantial polysilicon capacity to be released in 2023, we expect the prices of raw material for and to stimulate pent-up demand. We will fully see the growth opportunities in the market, executing our globalization strategy and enhancing resources input in key markets.

雖然近期供應有所增加，但強勁的需求使多晶矽壓機保持在高位，目前，組件價格保持穩定。隨著大量多晶矽產能將在 2023 年釋放，我們預計原材料價格將刺激被壓抑的需求。我們將充分把握市場增長機遇，實施全球化戰略，加大重點市場資源投入。

Also, we will control inventory turnover at a reasonable level with our efficient lighting management. Leveraging our extensive global industrial chain building and our reliable products, we are confident to achieve increases in both shipments and market share next year.

此外，我們將通過高效的照明管理將庫存周轉控制在合理水平。憑藉我們廣泛的全球產業鏈建設和可靠的產品，我們有信心在明年實現出貨量和市場份額的增長。

We made further progress in efficiency improvement and cost reduction for N-Type products. Thanks to the continuous efforts of our R&D team, expanding on our accumulated knowledge and our mass production experience. Mass produced the efficiency for TOPCon Cell as we reach the full capacity of 16 gigawatts reached 25%, and we are narrowing the gap integrated cost for N-Type compared to P-type products.

N型產品在提效降本方面取得進一步進展。感謝我們研發團隊的不斷努力，擴大我們積累的知識和我們的大規模生產經驗。 TOPCon Cell 量產效率達到 16 吉瓦的滿容量達到 25%，我們正在縮小 N-Type 與 P-type 產品相比綜合成本的差距。

Recently, the maximum solar conversion efficiency for our 182 monocrystalline silicon TOPCon cell reached 26.1% breaking the record of 25.7%, we set in April this year. Combined with process optimization with SDE technology, mass production efficiency is expected to further improve next year.

最近，我們的182單晶矽TOPCon電池的最大太陽能轉換效率達到了26.1%，打破了我們今年4月創下的25.7%的紀錄。結合SDE技術的工藝優化，明年量產效率有望進一步提升。

Benefiting from capacity release and a higher client acceptance, shipments for N-Type modules were roughly 3 gigawatts in the third quarter, an increase of nearly 160% sequentially. We have always been committed to sharing the benefit from the gas in power generation with our clients. As our N-Type product continue to be well received in the market. We are confident to lead the industry with increasing penetration and cost-effective performance.

受益於產能釋放和更高的客戶接受度，第三季度N型組件出貨量約為3吉瓦，環比增長近160%。我們一直致力於與客戶分享發電中的天然氣收益。由於我們的 N 型產品繼續受到市場的歡迎。我們有信心以越來越高的滲透率和高性價比的表現引領行業。

The second phase of 8 gigawatt TOPCon cell capacity in Hefei, which commenced the production in the third quarter is ramping up smoothly. The second phase of the 11 gigawatt TOPCon cell capacity in Jianshan, which product -- which started construction in the third quarter is expected to start production before the end of this year. Initiation and the ramping up of new capacities will help further optimize our integrated capacity structure and drive a blended cost lower.

合肥二期8吉瓦TOPCon電池產能已於三季度投產，目前正在順利增產。尖山TOPCon二期11吉瓦電池產能，該產品三季度開工建設，預計今年年底前投產。啟動和增加新產能將有助於進一步優化我們的綜合產能結構並降低混合成本。

Based on our operating strategy and market demand, we adjusted the pace of a capacity expansion for wafers, cells and modules. By the end of this year, we expected our annual production capacity for mono wafer solar cells and solar modules to reach 65, 55 and 70 gigawatts respectively.

根據經營策略和市場需求，我們調整了矽片、電池和組件的產能擴張步伐。到今年年底，我們預計單晶太陽能電池和太陽能組件的年產能將分別達到 65、55 和 70 吉瓦。

Before turning it over to Gener, I would like to go over our guidance for the fourth quarter this year. We expect module shipments to be in the range of 13 to 15 gigawatts for the fourth quarter of 2022. We are bullish about demand growth in the global market and dedicated to keep in providing optimal solutions to our clients with technical innovations and reliable products. We expect that the full year module shipments to be in the range of 41.5% to 43.5 gigawatts.

在將其交給 Gener 之前，我想回顧一下我們對今年第四季度的指導。我們預計 2022 年第四季度的組件出貨量將在 13 至 15 吉瓦之間。我們看好全球市場的需求增長，並致力於通過技術創新和可靠的產品繼續為我們的客戶提供最佳解決方案。我們預計全年組件出貨量將在 41.5% 至 43.5 吉瓦之間。

Thank you, Ms. Li.

謝謝李女士。

Despite short-term headwinds, such as power rationing measures and earthquake incident, total shipments in the third quarter were 10.9 gigawatts, of which approximately 95% were module shipments, doubling year-over-year on the back of a strong global demand. In specific market, China, Europe and the emerging markets contributed a remarkable increment growth. Solar module shipments to the Chinese market during the third quarter increased 5x year-over-year while emerging markets grew approximately 180% year-over-year and Europe over 60%.

儘管存在限電措施和地震事件等短期不利因素，但由於全球需求強勁，第三季度總出貨量為 10.9 吉瓦，其中約 95% 為組件出貨量，同比翻番。在特定市場，中國、歐洲和新興市場貢獻了顯著的增量增長。第三季度中國市場的太陽能組件出貨量同比增長 5 倍，而新興市場同比增長約 180%，歐洲增長超過 60%。

With a rush of installations in China in the fourth quarter, the Chinese market is expected to contribute an absolute majority, and we expect our penetration in the Chinese market to further increase. DG demand was strong in the U.S., however, the lower logistics turnover inflation and the labor shortage during holidays remain short-term challenges. We accelerated inventory turnover through proactive coordination with logistics supply as well as flexible measures and the trade terms in order to support energy transformation in European market.

隨著第四季度中國的安裝量激增，預計中國市場將佔絕對多數，我們預計我們在中國市場的滲透率將進一步提高。美國的危險品需求強勁，然而，較低的物流周轉率通脹和假期期間的勞動力短缺仍然是短期挑戰。我們通過積極協調物流供應、靈活措施和貿易條件加快庫存周轉，支持歐洲市場能源轉型。

In terms of the product, we enhanced the promotion and the cells of our high-efficiency N-Type Tiger Neo modules, leveraging our global marketing network layout and the localized marketing team. In the third quarter, shipment for Tiger Neo modules approached approximately 3 gigawatts, an increase of 160% sequentially. Acceptance from various client types and markets for the Tiger Neo further increase. The premium was in line with our expectations. We have been establishing a business model to share the benefits from [indiscernible] power generation by Tiger Neo modules with our clients and are committed to providing them with solutions that continuously bring down LCOE.

產品方面，利用全球營銷網絡佈局和本土化營銷團隊，加強高效N型Tiger Neo組件的推廣和電池片。第三季度，Tiger Neo 組件出貨量接近 3 吉瓦，環比增長 160%。 Tiger Neo 的各種客戶類型和市場的接受度進一步提高。溢價符合我們的預期。我們一直在建立一種商業模式，與我們的客戶分享 Tiger Neo 組件的 [音頻不清晰] 發電收益，並致力於為他們提供持續降低 LCOE 的解決方案。

With gradual release of N-Type capacity and increasing acceptance for Tiger Neo shipments and the penetration for Tiger Neo continued to grow in the fourth quarter. And the shipment proportion for Tiger Neo is expected to be above 60% of our total shipment in 2023. For business layout, DG demand remained strong in some markets, including Europe, emerging markets and China. And DG business accounted for nearly 60% in the third quarter, about 10% higher than the last quarter.

隨著 N 型產能的逐步釋放和 Tiger Neo 出貨量的增加，Tiger Neo 的滲透率在第四季度繼續增長。預計2023年Tiger Neo的出貨量占我們總出貨量的比重將達到60%以上。業務佈局方面，歐洲、新興市場、中國等部分市場DG需求依然強勁。而第三季度DG業務佔比接近60%，比上一季度增長約10%。

We expect the market demand to continue to increase in 2023, up over 30% year-over-year. Mainstream markets, including China, Europe, U.S., is expected to contribute the growth under the backdrop of high prosperity in end markets. We will stick to our strategy for global market layout, focusing on Chinese market while enhancing attention to and explorations in emerging markets. We will strive to achieve around 50% growth in shipment next year compared to 2022 and keep solid position for global competitiveness. With that, I will turn the call over to Pan.

我們預計 2023 年市場需求將繼續增長，同比增長超過 30%。在終端市場高度繁榮的背景下，中國、歐洲、美國等主流市場有望貢獻增長。我們將堅持全球市場佈局戰略，聚焦中國市場，加強對新興市場的關注和探索。力爭明年出貨量較2022年增長50%左右，保持全球競爭力。有了這個，我會把電話轉給潘。

Thank you, Gener. We are pleased to report another quarter of improved financial results. Total shipments doubled and total revenues increased to 128 percentage year-over-year as a result of strong demand globally. Thanks to our first optimized integrated capacity structure and shipment mix. Key metrics including gross margin, operating margin and net margin or improved sequentially. Short-term headwinds such as power rationing measures and an earthquake as well as new capacity ramp maps all had some impact on profitability in the third quarter.

謝謝你，傑爾。我們很高興地報告另一個季度的財務業績有所改善。由於全球需求強勁，總出貨量翻了一番，總收入同比增長 128%。得益於我們首次優化的綜合產能結構和出貨組合。包括毛利率、營業利潤率和淨利潤在內的關鍵指標或環比改善。限電措施和地震等短期不利因素以及新的產能斜坡圖都對第三季度的盈利能力產生了一定影響。

We believe that as these negative factors gradually receded, we will see a gradual increase in profit contribution from additional release of N-Type capacity and an increase in shipment proportion of N-Type products. Let me go into more details.

我們認為，隨著這些負面因素逐漸消退，我們將看到 N 型產能的額外釋放和 N 型產品出貨比例的增加將逐步提高利潤貢獻。讓我詳細介紹一下。

Total revenue was about $2.7 billion, up sequentially and a significant increase year-over-year. Gross margin was 15.7 percentage compared with 14.7 percentage in the second quarter this year and 15.1 percentage in third quarter last year. Total operating expenses were $423 million, slightly down sequentially and up year-over-year.

總收入約為 27 億美元，環比增長，同比顯著增長。毛利率為15.7%，而今年第二季度為14.7%，去年第三季度為15.1%。總運營費用為 4.23 億美元，環比略有下降，同比有所上升。

The year-over-year increase was made attribute to an increase in shipping costs for solar modules. Total operating expenses accounted for 15.4 percentage of total revenues in the third quarter, down from 16.2 percentage in the second quarter this year and up from 13.8 percentage in the third quarter last year. Excluding the impact from a change in the fair value of the notes and the share-based compensation expense, adjusted net income attribute to JinkoSolar Holdings ordinary shareholders was $60 million, improving sequentially.

同比增長歸因於太陽能組件的運輸成本增加。第三季度總營業費用佔總收入的15.4%，低於今年第二季度的16.2%，高於去年第三季度的13.8%。剔除票據公允價值變動和股權激勵費用的影響，調整後歸屬於晶科能源普通股股東的淨利潤為 6000 萬美元，環比改善。

During the quarter, we continued to optimize our foreign exchange hedging. We realized a net foreign exchange gain, which including change in fair value of foreign exchange derivatives of approximately $73 million in the third quarter compared with a net gain of $34 million in the second quarter of 2022.

本季度，我們繼續優化外匯對沖。我們實現了外匯淨收益，其中包括第三季度外匯衍生品的公允價值變化約為 7300 萬美元，而 2022 年第二季度的淨收益為 3400 萬美元。

Moving on to the balance sheet, at the end of the third quarter, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $2.1 billion, slightly down at the end of the second quarter this year and up from $1.1 billion at the end of the third quarter last year.

繼續看資產負債表，截至第三季度末，該公司的現金和現金等價物為 21 億美元，略低於今年第二季度末，高於去年第三季度末的 11 億美元年。

Gross turnover days were 69 days in both third quarter and second quarter of 2022. Inventory turnover days were 117 days in the third quarter compared with 104 days in the second quarter this year. Total debt was about $4.2 billion at the end of the third quarter, up from $3.8 billion. Net debt was about $2 billion compared with $1.7 billion at the end of the second quarter this year. This concludes our prepared remarks. We are now happy to take your questions. Operator, please proceed.

2022 年第三季度和第二季度的總周轉天數均為 69 天。第三季度的庫存周轉天數為 117 天，而今年第二季度為 104 天。第三季度末總債務約為 42 億美元，高於 38 億美元。淨債務約為 20 億美元，而今年第二季度末為 17 億美元。我們準備好的評論到此結束。我們現在很高興回答您的問題。接線員，請繼續。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The first question comes from Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs.

第一個問題來自高盛的 Brian Lee。

This is Grace on for Brian. I guess, first one on your capacity. Just given the passage of the inflation reduction as a number of your peers announced U.S. capacity expansion. So I just wonder what's your strategy there in the U.S., if any? And how are you going to fund that? And what's the implication to your free cash flow.

這是布賴恩的格蕾絲。我想，第一個取決於你的能力。剛剛考慮到隨著一些同行宣布美國產能擴張，通脹下降。所以我只是想知道你在美國的戰略是什麼，如果有的話？你將如何資助它？對你的自由現金流有什麼影響。

So you are talking about the IRA, right, the impact on our strategies or capacity in the United States?

所以你說的是愛爾蘭共和軍，對吧，對我們在美國的戰略或能力的影響？

Yes, the third question.

是的，第三個問題。

Yes. So I think from a company perspective, based on the initial assessment of the IRA Act, we believe this is very positive and the incentive is really, I think, significant and to make the, I think, the production, local production in the United States relatively competitive. We are aware and the details of IRA is going to be released in Q1 next year. So we are very closely following up the details. And as you know, we have a very small module capacities in U.S. 400 megawatts and we are optimistic. And after the release of the details IRA and it's possible we expect our module capacity in the United States. But at this stage, we are still in the evaluation stage.

是的。所以我認為從公司的角度來看，基於對愛爾蘭共和軍法案的初步評估，我們認為這是非常積極的，我認為激勵真的很重要，並且我認為在美國進行生產、本地生產國家比較有競爭力。我們知道，IRA 的詳細信息將於明年第一季度公佈。因此，我們正在密切關注細節。如您所知，我們的組件容量非常小，只有 400 兆瓦，我們對此持樂觀態度。在詳細信息 IRA 發布後，我們可能會期望我們在美國的模塊產能。但現階段，我們仍處於評估階段。

Okay. Fair enough. And then maybe switching gears to your gross margin. Interesting to see you think 15 7% this quarter. You mentioned helped by the module -- the TOPCon module shipment. So I just wonder how much of your margin is helped by the N-Type shipment module versus the currency because I assume a lot of your operations is in China? And also, can you talk about your margin in ASP expectations for the next several quarters?

好的。很公平。然後可能會切換到您的毛利率。有趣的是，您認為本季度為 15 7%。您提到了模塊的幫助——TOPCon 模塊出貨。所以我只是想知道 N 型出貨模塊相對於貨幣對你的利潤有多大幫助，因為我假設你的很多業務都在中國？另外，您能否談談您對未來幾個季度的 ASP 預期的利潤率？

Yes. We improved the margins slightly I think in this quarter, quarter-over-quarter, and we delivered the 3 gigawatts N-Type TOPCon modules, which accounts for around 30% of our total shipments in the third quarter. And the gross margin for the N-Type is relatively higher than the P-Type. I think it's around 2% from the gross margin perspective.

是的。我認為我們在本季度環比略微提高了利潤率，我們交付了 3 吉瓦的 N-Type TOPCon 模塊，占我們第三季度總出貨量的 30% 左右。而N-Type的毛利率相對高於P-Type。我認為從毛利率的角度來看，它約為 2%。

And on top of that, as the prepared remarks by David Li and in the third quarter, we faced the power outage in Sichuan province, which has some negative impact. So we -- overall, we think that in time, we are very -- I think we're leading the industries from the product, from the inflation fees and as well as the cost perspective. And our penetration type will continue to improve quarter-by-quarter, which will help us to drive the, I think, the profitability increase, including the gross margin.

最重要的是，正如大衛李準備的言論，在第三季度，我們面臨四川省停電，這產生了一些負面影響。所以我們 - 總的來說，我們認為及時，我們非常 - 我認為我們正在從產品、通脹費用和成本角度引領行業。而且我們的滲透類型將繼續逐季度提高，我認為這將有助於我們推動盈利能力的增長，包括毛利率。

Okay. And can I squeeze in one more housekeeping question is you increased your module and wafer capacity. So what's your CapEx plan for 2022 and what was your D&A in 3Q?

好的。我可以再問一個內務問題是你增加了你的模塊和晶圓容量。那麼您 2022 年的資本支出計劃是什麼？您在第三季度的 D&A 是什麼？

Thank you for the question. The CapEx of the mid-year, we still keep that on the USD$ 3 billion.

感謝你的提問。年中的資本支出，我們仍然保持在 30 億美元。

Okay. Things around the D&A currency too.

好的。圍繞 D&A 貨幣的事情也是如此。

So your question is generally the absolute number or percentage of what is the specific.

所以你的問題通常是具體的絕對數量或百分比。

Thank you for your question. About the G&A expenses, it takes about around 4 to 5 percentage of the total revenue.

謝謝你的問題。關於 G&A 費用，大約佔總收入的 4% 到 5%。

The next question comes from Philip Shen from ROTH Capital Partners.

下一個問題來自 ROTH Capital Partners 的 Philip Shen。

As a follow-up to some of these questions, I was wondering if you could talk about CapEx expectations for 2023. By the end of 2023, how much wafer cell and module capacity do you think you'll have?

作為其中一些問題的後續，我想知道您是否可以談談對 2023 年資本支出的預期。到 2023 年底，您認為您將擁有多少矽片電池和組件產能？

By the end of this year, we have 65, 55, 70 gigawatts. So I think we have sufficient capacities and to -- we are in a very good position and to deliver our results in next year. And we will continue to evaluate the market traditions of next year. And we are -- I think the markets were optimistic for next year.

到今年年底，我們有 65、55、70 吉瓦。所以我認為我們有足夠的能力——我們處於非常有利的位置，並在明年交付我們的成果。我們將繼續評估明年的市場傳統。我們是 - 我認為市場對明年持樂觀態度。

So our investment will continue to focus on N-Type. I think, sale and module capacities next year and to build sufficient capacity for both next 2 years, our shipment guidance. So it's -- we are going to release, I think, the guidance capacity expansion next year in the next quarter. And -- but the key focus will continue on the N-Type the TOPCon, the cell and module capacities.

所以我們的投資將繼續專注於N-Type。我認為，明年的銷售和模塊產能以及為未來 2 年建立足夠的產能，我們的出貨指導。所以它 - 我認為，我們將在下個季度發布明年的指導產能擴張。而且——但重點將繼續放在 N-Type TOPCon、電池和模塊容量上。

What's after TOPCon I'm imagining you guys are already thinking about it with 60% N-Type next year. Do you think you're going to move on to heterojunction or have you decided on the technology road map beyond TOPCon?

TOPCon 之後會發生什麼我想你們已經在考慮明年 60% 的 N-Type 了。你認為你會轉向異質結還是你已經決定了超越 TOPCon 的技術路線圖？

We are leading the TOPCon Technology and capacity of the product, let's say, the increasing fees. And we believe there is a significant room to continue to deliver further high-quality products based on the N-Type top cloud technology. And our R&D team has released in the laboratory testing and the efficiency will reach to 26.1%. And our target for the mass production efficiencies by the end of next year will be reached to over, I think, 25.7%. And we have technology roadmap and we strongly believe the N-Type TOPCon will dominate the next markets in the next 2 or 3 years.

我們領先TOPCon的技術和產品的容量，比方說，不斷增加的費用。我們相信，基於 N-Type 頂級雲技術繼續提供更多高質量產品的空間很大。並且我們的研發團隊已經在實驗室測試中發布，效率將達到26.1%。到明年年底，我們的量產效率目標將達到 25.7% 以上。我們有技術路線圖，我們堅信 N 型 TOPCon 將在未來 2 或 3 年內主導下一個市場。

So the top line is our focus. But from an R&D perspective, we closely monitor the HTC Technology, but we strongly believe the TOPCon is a trend.

所以最重要的是我們的重點。但從研發的角度來看，我們密切關注宏達科技，但我們堅信 TOPCon 是一種趨勢。

Great. Okay. In terms of the U.S. market, the U.S. LPA enforcement and the CBP process that you're going through. I was wondering if you could talk about and give an update as to where things stand. My understanding is the process has come to a close, and you're waiting on a decision. And so how much longer do you think we need to wait? And also, let's say you get released soon. Does that mean you can freely ship into the U.S.? Or do you think you have to secure something like an advanced letter of ruling to be able to rely shift into the U.S.

偉大的。好的。就美國市場、美國 LPA 執法和您正在經歷的 CBP 程序而言。我想知道您是否可以談論並提供有關情況的最新信息。我的理解是這個過程已經結束，你正在等待一個決定。那麼你認為我們還需要等多久？而且，假設你很快就會被釋放。這是否意味著您可以自由運送到美國？還是您認為您必須獲得諸如高級裁定書之類的東西才能依靠轉移到美國

Yes. We did a lot of work under the UF LPA and the standard is very white board and the challenge for the traceability systems, and we prepare documents and have several loans, discussing communication with the VP. We think our documentations are ready and waiting for the final feedback from CD. And we are optimistic for the results, but the detailed timing, it's still uncertain, but I think it's not so far.

是的。我們在 UF LPA 下做了很多工作，標準非常白板和可追溯系統的挑戰，我們準備文件並有幾筆貸款，與副總裁討論溝通。我們認為我們的文檔已經準備就緒，正在等待 CD 的最終反饋。我們對結果持樂觀態度，但詳細的時間安排仍然不確定，但我認為目前還沒有。

And for your second question is after the release of the, let's say, detent the modules and we try to improve our internal efficiencies and trying to continue to communicate with CPP to make sure, let's say, the bottleneck and will be departed. And now it's a lot of internal, external factors, including the capacities from CBP have the impact on the efficiencies. So we don't know what will be, let's say, the increasing in the future. But I think after the learning curve in the last 2 or 3 months, we think it's going to be getting more and more smooth.

你的第二個問題是在發布之後，比如說，鎖定模塊，我們嘗試提高我們的內部效率，並嘗試繼續與 CPP 溝通，以確保，比如說，瓶頸將被消除。現在有很多內部和外部因素，包括 CBP 的能力對效率有影響。因此，我們不知道將來會增加什麼。但我認為在過去 2 或 3 個月的學習曲線之後，我們認為它會變得越來越順暢。

Okay. Xiande, can you talk about how many gigawatts of supply has been impacted for you since the first attention at the end of June between then and now end of October and then, let's say, it continues through the end of the year, what kind of number can you share? How many gigawatts? I know that the detained modules are smaller. I'm talking about the total impact to customers. Are we talking about 2 gigawatts or maybe even more.

好的。先德，你能不能談談從6月底第一次關注到現在10月底，然後，比如說，一直持續到年底，你影響了多少吉瓦的供應？號碼可以分享嗎？多少吉瓦？我知道被扣留的模塊更小。我說的是對客戶的總體影響。我們是在談論 2 吉瓦還是更多。

You're right, the tan margin is very small. And -- but because of delays deposits, right, it's going to have loading impact to shipments to our U.S. customers. And we estimate this year, all year and our shipments in the U.S. will be around 5%.

你是對的，棕褐色邊距非常小。而且 - 但是由於延遲存款，對，這將對我們的美國客戶的貨物產生裝載影響。我們估計今年全年，我們在美國的出貨量將在 5% 左右。

And this is the original I think the planning from the beginning of this year, it's 10%. So it's roughly, I think, a significant impact.

而這是原來我認為從今年年初開始的計劃，是10%。因此，我認為這大致是一個重大影響。

Okay. 5% of the 44 or 40-plus gigawatts, roughly 2 gigawatts. So correct me if I'm wrong, of course. And then one last question for me. In terms of the growth for next year, I think, Gener, you talked about a 50% growth that matches with your year-end module capacity roughly. Can you talk about the geographic mix you expect? How much -- for example, are you expecting for the U.S. in '23? And then what do you think is the rest of -- how much try and will China be Europe, emerging markets?

好的。 44 或 40 多吉瓦的 5%，大約 2 吉瓦。當然，如果我錯了，請糾正我。然後是我的最後一個問題。關於明年的增長，我認為，Gener，您談到了與您的年終組件產能大致匹配的 50% 的增長。你能談談你期望的地理組合嗎？多少——例如，你對 23 年的美國的期望是多少？然後你認為剩下的部分是什麼——中國做了多少嘗試，中國會成為歐洲、新興市場嗎？

So Gener, would you like to take the question?

Gener，你願意回答這個問題嗎？

Okay. [indiscernible]. And let me answer your questions. Incrementally, we're seeing next year, and China will dominant take maybe 40% or 50% from the increase in metal volume. And the second one is the U.S. and the European markets. The U.S., we don't believe it's demand concerns. It's purely the supply issues, including the potential impact from U.S. LPA. And we believe the U.S. if everything is smooth and maybe 40 module demand over 30 gigawatts the installation.

好的。 [聽不清]。讓我回答你的問題。逐漸地，我們將看到明年，中國將從金屬數量的增長中佔據主導地位，可能佔 40% 或 50%。第二個是美國和歐洲市場。美國，我們不認為這是對需求的擔憂。這純粹是供應問題，包括美國 LPA 的潛在影響。我們相信美國如果一切順利，可能需要 40 個模塊安裝超過 30 吉瓦。

And yes, -- so that is -- and this year, because of the polysilicon is very high, the module price is high, which delayed a lot of utility scale projects, installations and next year with the bottleneck the polysilicon gun and the production volume will a significant increase and which will have a very good timing for the utility-scale developers to find modules and connect to the grid.

是的，-- 就是這樣-- 今年，由於多晶矽非常高，模塊價格高，這延遲了許多公用事業規模的項目、安裝和明年的多晶矽槍和生產瓶頸量將顯著增加，這將為公用事業規模的開發人員找到模塊並連接到電網提供了很好的時機。

So just to put numbers on it. So let's say China is 40% to 50%. Do you think U.S. is 15% to 20% and similar with Europe?

所以只是把數字放在上面。所以假設中國是40%到50%。你認為美國是 15% 到 20% 並且與歐洲相似嗎？

Yes. And from the testament perspective, we think -- I think you are talking about increase of [indiscernible], right? We believe the total market size will --

是的。從遺囑的角度來看，我們認為——我認為你是在談論 [音頻不清晰] 的增加，對嗎？我們相信總的市場規模將——

Sorry to interrupt just, let's say, it's 65 gigawatts next year of shipments. What -- you said 40% to 50% of the 65% would be China. I'm just trying to figure out what percentage of that 65% might be Europe and U.S.

抱歉打斷一下，比如說，明年的出貨量是 65 吉瓦。什麼 - 你說 65% 中的 40% 到 50% 是中國。我只是想弄清楚這 65% 中有多少百分比可能是歐洲和美國。

Okay. You mean the increase of [indiscernible]

好的。你的意思是增加[音頻不清晰]

Not necessarily incremental. It's not the increment. Yes. Just -- of the 65 gigawatts, how much would be U.S., maybe 15% or 5%. I mean, assuming you're able to flow the modules freely. Okay. Okay. Let's say, the total size, this year, maybe 250, right? Installation in the solar and next year may be 320 or maybe some other think is 350.

不一定是增量的。這不是增量。是的。只是——在 65 吉瓦中，美國有多少，可能是 15% 或 5%。我的意思是，假設您能夠自由流動模塊。好的。好的。比方說，今年的總規模可能是 250 個，對吧？太陽能和明年的安裝可能是 320，或者其他人認為是 350。

We believe China will take around, I think, 35%, 40% market share and the U.S. will take around, I think, 10%. European will be around I think, 20%.

我們相信中國將佔據我認為 35%、40% 的市場份額，而美國將佔據我認為 10% 的市場份額。我認為歐洲將在 20% 左右。

Great. Appreciate the color. Charlie. I'll pass it on.

偉大的。欣賞顏色。查理。我會傳下去的。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The next question comes from Alan Lau from Jeffries.

下一個問題來自 Jeffries 的 Alan Lau。

Congratulations for the extremely good results. So I would like to know what is the outlook of the gross margin in the next quarter. As the company has maintained 10 gigawatt of N-Type shipment. So in Q4, can I expect there will be around 6 to 7 gigawatt of popcorn shipment.

祝賀取得了非常好的結果。所以我想知道下一季度毛利率的前景如何。由於該公司一直保持著 10 吉瓦的 N-Type 出貨量。所以在第四季度，我可以預期會有大約 6 到 7 吉瓦的爆米花出貨量嗎？

Yes. I think, we have capacity, I think by the end of this year, 35 gigawatts. So you're right, if you do the calculations quarter-by-quarter, our shipments, I think Q4 will be around 5 to 6 gigawatts and Q1 next year will be a little bit higher next year in Q1. And the gross margin, it's -- because of the N-Type we'll take more percentage in Q4.

是的。我認為，我們有能力，我認為到今年年底，35 吉瓦。所以你是對的，如果你按季度計算，我們的出貨量，我認為第四季度將在 5 到 6 吉瓦左右，明年第一季度會更高一些。毛利率是——因為 N 型，我們將在第四季度佔據更多百分比。

On top of that the China will take more market share, more shipments in Q4 and as well as the RMB depreciation. We believe there is a potential to the gross margin will continue to expand.

除此之外，中國將在第四季度佔據更多市場份額、更多出貨量以及人民幣貶值。我們認為毛利率有可能繼續擴大。

And then another question is the company has realized around 3 gigawatts of TOPCon sales in 3Q. So -- and also, the company has mentioned it has reached the expected premium. So is it around RMB 0.10 of premium for the 3 gigawatt has been sold in Q3?

然後另一個問題是，該公司在第三季度實現了約 3 吉瓦的 TOPCon 銷售額。所以 - 而且，該公司已經提到它已經達到了預期的溢價。那麼第三季度售出的 3 吉瓦的溢價是 0.10 元左右嗎？

The price premium around RMB 0.07, RMB 0.08. And given after the consideration the cost difference and the profitability per watt basis type is relatively higher than P-Type by RMB 0.04.

溢價0.07元左右，0.08元左右。考慮到成本差異和每瓦基型的盈利能力相對P型高0.04元。

Understood. That's quite a lot, actually. Okay. In terms of net profit, right, $0.04 higher... Sorry, could you repeat your questions? So, $0.04 in terms of net profit, right, for the top control. On that MB for per a... Okay. And so I have noted that the company has realized the expected premium around TOPCon shipment in 2023 from 50% to 60%. So what makes you raised the guidance and should we expect a higher net profit for next year because of this increase.

明白了。實際上，這相當多。好的。就淨利潤而言，對，高出 0.04 美元……對不起，您能重複一下您的問題嗎？因此，最高控制權的淨利潤為 0.04 美元。在那個 MB 上每... 好的。所以我注意到該公司已經實現了 2023 年 TOPCon 出貨量的預期溢價從 50% 到 60%。那麼是什麼讓你提高了指導方針，我們是否應該因為這種增長而預期明年的淨利潤會更高。

Yes, we will continue to invest in to module capacity next year. So based on our initial evaluations, we see we are able to deliver around 60% N-Type TOPCon module next year. And with relatively more the TOPCon modules with more mixed to TOPCon modules we think. The profitability will relatively with small percentage and more higher profitability is from for the total results.

是的，明年我們將繼續投資組件產能。因此，根據我們的初步評估，我們看到明年我們能夠交付大約 60% 的 N 型 TOPCon 模塊。我們認為，相對較多的 TOPCon 模塊與 TOPCon 模塊的混合較多。盈利能力將相對較小的百分比和更高的盈利能力來自於總結果。

And I think my last question is regarding to the partnership with the equipment provider Autowell. So are they -- are these -- did, let me put it this way. So has JinkoSolar benefit with them by having more competitively priced equipment?

我認為我的最後一個問題是關於與設備供應商 Autowell 的合作關係。他們也是——這些是——做了，讓我這樣說。那麼晶科能源是否通過價格更具競爭力的設備與他們一起受益呢？

Talking about the module equipment producer

淺談模組設備生產商

Yes, but they are producing the -- yes, Autowell, and they're selling crystal growing equipment to Jinko and what I heard is the price is cheaper, right?

是的，但他們正在生產——是的，Autowell，他們正在向晶科出售晶體生長設備，我聽說價格更便宜，對吧？

So, I don't know. We also invested some minority interest for the business. And it's -- I think we [indiscernible] the TOPCon module with thinking the volume is not very big and it's major for the R&D purpose, and we want to have more development on the technology and align with our supplies to make the equipment more advanced and particularly for the entire wafer production.

所以，我不知道。我們還為該業務投資了一些少數股權。它是 -- 我認為我們 [音頻不清晰] TOPCon 模塊認為體積不是很大，主要用於研發目的，我們希望在技術上有更多的發展，並與我們的供應保持一致，使設備更先進尤其是整個晶圓生產。

Understood. And once again, congratulations to the company and I'll leave it now.

明白了。再次祝賀公司，我現在就離開。

Thank you. The next question comes from Rajiv Chaudhri from Saran Capital.

謝謝你。下一個問題來自 Saran Capital 的 Rajiv Chaudhri。

I have 2 questions. One is on shipping costs. And we know that shipping costs have come down very substantially in the last 3, 4 months. And actually, they are close to the levels they were at before COVID started. And I'm wondering whether you have -- when we will start to see that in your numbers, how soon will those be reflected? And when that gets reflected, can we expect that shipping costs can go from 6% of revenues to maybe 3% of revenues. So that's my first question.

我有 2 個問題。一是運費。我們知道在過去的 3、4 個月裡，運輸成本已經大幅下降。實際上，它們已接近 COVID 開始之前的水平。我想知道你是否有——當我們開始在你的數字中看到這一點時，多久會反映出來？當這一點得到反映時，我們是否可以預期運輸成本可以從收入的 6% 上升到收入的 3%。所以這是我的第一個問題。

Yes, you're right. The global economy is weak, right? And the shipment costs in recent I think 2 months is the index has dropped a lot quarter-by-quarter, year-over-year. And it's going to be very positive for starting from the next year. But for this year, starting in Q4, I think the impact is not so the part in impact is not so significant because we have long-term arrangements with logistics companies and the long-term contract prices already below the market price.

你是對的。全球經濟疲軟，對吧？而最近我認為2個月的運輸成本是該指數逐季度、同比下降很多。從明年開始，這將是非常積極的。但今年從第四季度開始，我認為影響不是那麼大，因為我們和物流公司有長期安排，長期合同價格已經低於市場價格。

And with the market price dropped a lot and the expectation of next year is continued to be back to our word Loma standards compared to a couple of years, years ago. And we will renegotiate the long-term arrangements for next year. And that is going to be have the impact for next year. Okay. And Charlie, the second question is about polysilicon cost.

隨著市場價格大幅下跌，與幾年前相比，明年的預期繼續回到我們所說的 Loma 標準。我們將重新協商明年的長期安排。這將對明年產生影響。好的。查理，第二個問題是關於多晶矽的成本。

Can you give us your best guess or your best sense right now, judgment right now on when you expect polysilicon costs to start to come down and what rate they will come down in 2023, for example, what do you think polysilicon cost might be by the end of 2023? And then related to that, what is your plan for sharing the benefit of this cost reduction with your customers? -- you had mentioned last -- in the last call that on the type, you are sharing the benefit of the N-Type 50-50 with your customers. Are you planning to share the benefit of polysilicon cost reduction also 50-50 with your customers.

您現在能給我們您的最佳猜測或您的最佳感覺嗎，現在就您預計多晶矽成本何時開始下降以及它們將在 2023 年下降的速度做出判斷，例如，您認為多晶矽成本可能會下降多少？ 2023年底？然後與此相關，您有什麼計劃與您的客戶分享這種降低成本的好處？ -- 您上次提到 -- 在上一次電話會議中，您正在與您的客戶分享 N-Type 50-50 的好處。您是否打算與您的客戶分享多晶矽成本降低 50-50 的好處。

This is very complicated questions. And -- but we will strike. strongly believe the trend is there. And a lot of the polysilicon complexity has been ramping up in the last 2 or 3 months. And the product silicon increase month-over-month dramatically. And next year, there are sufficient poly capacity and the volume to support the total demand next year. And now the silicon price is flat, and we see some potential the silicon price will be a downward trend, starting from December, right? We're not sure, but I think the attorney is there.

這是非常複雜的問題。而且——但我們會罷工。堅信趨勢是存在的。在過去的 2 或 3 個月內，許多多晶矽的複雜性都在增加。產品矽片逐月大幅增加。而明年，有足夠的多晶矽產能和數量來支撐明年的總需求。而且現在矽價持平，我們看到矽價有一定的下降趨勢，從12月開始，對吧？我們不確定，但我認為律師在那裡。

It's very difficult to estimate what is the exact timing right and for the turnaround of the poly -- and from our perspective, we try to now we'll try to have more signed orders for the next year, in particular with our strategic customers. And some of our customers may have intentions and to have the price adjustment method. And we're thinking that remain situations, and we will -- based on case by case, we will negotiate with different customers.

很難估計準確的時機以及多晶矽的周轉時間——從我們的角度來看，我們現在努力爭取明年有更多的簽約訂單，特別是與我們的戰略客戶。而我們的一些客戶可能有意向並有調價的方法。我們認為仍然存在這種情況，我們將根據具體情況與不同的客戶進行談判。

So can you give us an overall sense then that your price of polysilicon comes down by, let's whatever x number of cents. On an overall basis, how much of that you would pass on to the customers and how much you would keep to improve your own gross margin?

那麼，您能否給我們一個整體感覺，即您的多晶矽價格下降了，讓我們看看 x 美分。總體而言，您會將其中多少轉嫁給客戶，以及您將保留多少以提高自己的毛利率？

It's not a very simple case. And some customers, we have fixed price. Some customers we have variable price and with some [indiscernible] indexed to the market price or some -- it's different case by case.

這不是一個非常簡單的案例。還有一些客戶，我們有固定的價格。有些客戶我們有可變價格，有些 [音頻不清晰] 與市場價格掛鉤，或者有些 - 因情況而異。

[Operator Instruction]

【操作說明】

We have a new question from [indiscernible]

我們有一個來自 [音頻不清晰] 的新問題

Hello management. I would like to know on what percentage you expect your fourth quarter shipment will be shipped in China? Because I can see that in the third quarter, it's around 40-something spend maybe close to 50%. So what do you expect in the fourth quarter?

你好管理。我想知道你們預計第四季度出貨量在中國的百分比是多少？因為我可以看到在第三季度，大約 40 多歲的人花費可能接近 50%。那麼您對第四季度的預期是什麼？

China will take a very large market in the fourth quarter. By the end of the year, a lot of utility scale developers, they have strong pressures the and intentions to strive and connect the grades. And we have -- we will estimate in Q4, we will have in the China markets around, I think, 50% to 55%.

中國將在第四季度佔據非常大的市場。到了年底，很多公用事業規模的開發商，都有著強烈的壓力和意圖去爭取和連接檔次。我們有 - 我們將在第四季度估計，我們將在中國市場擁有大約 50% 到 55% 的份額。

Okay. So do you think that the domestic increase in product control could be a challenge? Or you've already well prepared for those kind of domestic SOE developers for their project demand.

好的。那麼您認為國內增加產品控制可能是一個挑戰嗎？或者你已經為那些國內國企開發商的項目需求做好了充分的準備。

There are some challenges because of co-right situations. And it's -- I think the challenge is the logistic perspective, but we are seeing some improvement in some regions, region. So we think there are sufficient time by the end of this year to deliver the modules as scheduled.

由於共同權利的情況，存在一些挑戰。這是 - 我認為挑戰在於後勤方面，但我們看到一些地區、地區有所改善。所以我們認為到今年年底有足夠的時間按計劃交付模塊。

Okay. So the next question is about the TOPCon N TOPCorn product. So in the third quarter, when do you ship those products? Where is the major market for this product is like in Europe, U.S. or mainly in Chinese market.

好的。所以下一個問題是關於 TOPCon N TOPCorn 產品。那麼在第三季度，你們什麼時候出貨這些產品？該產品的主要市場在哪裡，例如歐洲，美國或主要在中國市場。

The majority parts in Europe, and we also have shipments in China, in Latin America under Asia Pacific, this group.

大部分在歐洲，我們在中國也有出貨，在亞太地區下的拉丁美洲，這組。

So basically, maybe most parts sales in China and then basically everywhere, you have some like a product demo for the global users?

所以基本上，也許大部分零件在中國銷售，然後基本上在世界各地，你有一些像全球用戶的產品演示嗎？

No, it's not product demos, and we have promoting the products starting from last year. And the -- it's a significant shipment and to different markets and the European market is very big. And following that, there are 7 different countries and regions including China, North America and Australia, et cetera.

不，這不是產品演示，我們從去年開始推廣產品。而且 - 這是一個重要的出貨量和不同的市場，歐洲市場非常大。緊隨其後的是中國、北美、澳大利亞等7個不同的國家和地區。

Okay. My final question is regarding about the upstream supply other than policy costs. So do you think that the Quad material could be a bottleneck going forward in 2023 for your internal wafer production.

好的。我的最後一個問題是關於政策成本以外的上游供應。那麼，您是否認為 Quad 材料可能成為 2023 年內部晶圓生產的瓶頸。

So what kind of materials you are talking about?

那麼你說的是什麼材料呢？

Quad in since.

從那時起四合。

Okay. Thank you. And it's -- this has been talking about a long time and we think it's a little bit tight for this particular materials, but it still can support over -- we believe, 500 megawatts. And because on top of that, there are capacity expansions. I think there over next year, maybe 90,000 tons. And from a technology perspective, we think the it's feasible to use both percentage of domestic produced materials and other than the imported materials. And it's more like the impact is, let's say, the inflation cost perspective other than the volume perspective.

好的。謝謝你。而且它 - 這已經討論了很長時間，我們認為這種特殊材料有點緊張，但它仍然可以支持 - 我們相信，500兆瓦。因為除此之外，還有產能擴張。我認為明年可能會有 90,000 噸。而且從技術的角度來看，我們認為既使用國產材料的百分比，也使用進口材料以外的其他材料是可行的。而且它的影響更像是，比方說，通貨膨脹成本的觀點，而不是數量的觀點。

Okay. There are no further questions. There is no more question.

好的。沒有進一步的問題。沒有更多的問題。

Okay. Thank you, everyone. So we will -- we now end the call. Thank you. Goodnight.

好的。謝謝大家。所以我們將——我們現在結束通話。謝謝你。晚安。

This concludes today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接