(ITW) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Krista, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the ITW Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Karen Fletcher, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

早安.我叫克里斯塔，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我歡迎大家參加 ITW 第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謝謝。凱倫‧弗萊徹 (Karen Fletcher)，投資人關係副總裁。你可以開始了。

Okay. Thank you, Krista. Good morning, and welcome to ITW's Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call. I'm joined by our Chairman and CEO Scott Santi; Vice Chairman, Chris O'Herlihy; and Senior Vice President and CFO, Michael Larsen. During today's call, we will discuss ITW's third quarter financial results and provide an update on our full year 2023 outlook.

好的。謝謝你，克里斯塔。早上好，歡迎參加 ITW 2023 年第三季電話會議。我們的董事長兼執行長 Scott Santi 也加入了我的行列。副主席克里斯·奧赫利希；資深副總裁兼財務長麥可‧拉森 (Michael Larsen)。在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論 ITW 第三季的財務業績，並提供 2023 年全年展望的最新資訊。

Slide 2 is a reminder that this presentation contains forward-looking statements. Please refer to the company's 2022 Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the SEC for more detail about important risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. This presentation uses certain non-GAAP measures, and a reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is contained in the press release.

投影片 2 提醒您，本簡報包含前瞻性陳述。請參閱該公司向 SEC 提交的 2022 年 10-K 表格和後續報告，以了解可能導致實際結果與我們的預期有重大差異的重要風險的更多詳細資訊。本簡報使用了某些非 GAAP 衡量標準，而這些衡量標準與最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準的調整結果包含在新聞稿中。

Please turn to Slide 3, and it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Scott Santi.

請轉到幻燈片 3，現在我很高興將電話轉給我們的董事長兼執行長 Scott Santi。

Thank you, Karen, and good morning, everyone. As you are all aware, on September 7, we announced our CEO succession plan wherein I will be turning over the CEO role to my colleague, Chris O'Herlihy at year-end. Chris is an exceptional leader with deep expertise in ITW's highly differentiated business model, our focused strategy to leverage it to full potential and the company's unique one-of-a-kind culture.

謝謝你，凱倫，大家早安。眾所周知，9 月 7 日，我們宣布了 CEO 繼任計劃，其中我將在年底將 CEO 職位移交給我的同事 Chris O'Herlihy。 Chris 是一位傑出的領導者，在 ITW 高度差異化的業務模式、充分發揮其潛力的重點策略以及公司獨特的文化方面擁有深厚的專業知識。

He has been an invaluable partner and collaborator with me over the past 11 years. We have worked closely together to prepare for this transition. He is more than ready and he will do an exceptional job as ITW's next CEO.

在過去 11 年裡，他一直是我寶貴的合作夥伴和合作者。我們密切合作，為這一轉變做好準備。他已經做好充分準備，並且作為 IT​​W 的下一任首席執行官，他將出色地完成工作。

If you allow me a brief bit of reflection on the last 11 years, I will simply say that everything we did was driven by our fundamental belief in the performance power of the differentiated set of strategic and operational capabilities and practices that we refer to as the ITW business model. In this past phase, we focused on getting the company properly positioned to be able to leverage them to their full potential over the long term.

如果您允許我對過去11 年進行簡短的反思，我會簡單地說，我們所做的一切都是由我們對差異化的策略和營運能力和實踐集的績效力量的基本信念驅動的，我們將其稱為「 ITW 商業模式。在過去的階段，我們的重點是讓公司處於適當的位置，以便能夠長期充分發揮它們的潛力。

With this as our foundation, ITW enters our next phase in a position of great strength and resilience with these unique skills and capabilities sharply honed. I wholeheartedly believe that there will be an even bigger source of competitive advantage and differentiated performance in the company's next phase than they were in the last one, especially if you believe as I do that the level of volatility and unpredictability of the world will only increase from here forward. I have absolutely no doubt that Chris and the incredibly talented ITW leadership team behind him will utilize all of the differentiated tools at ITW's disposal to read and react to whatever comes our way and lead the company to even greater heights in our next phase.

以此為基礎，ITW 憑藉這些經過磨練的獨特技能和能力，以強大的實力和韌性進入下一階段。我全心全意地相信，公司下一階段將有比上一階段更大的競爭優勢和差異化業績來源，特別是如果您像我一樣相信世界的波動性和不可預測性只會增加從這裡向前。我絕對毫不懷疑 Chris 和他身後才華橫溢的 ITW 領導團隊將利用 ITW 掌握的所有差異化工具來解讀我們遇到的任何情況並做出反應，並帶領公司在下一階段邁向更高的高度。

Let me close by saying that it has been both a privilege and an honor to lead this great company for the last 11 years. And I offer my deepest gratitude to all of my ITW colleagues past and present for all of their support and for their unwavering commitment to working every day to be the best ITW that we can be.

最後我要說的是，在過去 11 年裡領導這家偉大的公司既是一種榮幸，也是一種榮幸。我向所有過去和現在的 ITW 同事表示最深切的感謝，感謝他們的支持以及他們每天堅定不移地致力於成為最好的 ITW。

With that, it is now my pleasure to turn the call and in a few months, the company over to Chris O'Herlihy. Chris, over to you.

至此，我很高興能夠在幾個月後將公司轉交給克里斯·奧赫利希 (Chris O'Herlihy)。克里斯，交給你了。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning, everyone. First, I want to thank Scott and our Board of Directors for their trust and confidence in electing me as ITW's next CEO. I'm incredibly humbled by the opportunity to lead this great company, our exceptionally talented leadership team, and our 46,000 dedicated colleagues around the world.

謝謝你，斯科特，大家早安。首先，我要感謝 Scott 和我們的董事會對我的信任和信心，選舉我為 ITW 的下一任執行長。我對有機會領導這家偉大的公司、我們才華橫溢的領導團隊以及我們遍布全球的 46,000 名敬業的同事感到無比榮幸。

As Scott said, as a result of the work done over the last 11 years in executing our enterprise strategy to leverage the ITW business model to its full potential, our company has never performed better or been better positioned for the future. The central focus of the next phase of our enterprise strategy is to elevate high-quality organic growth and customer-backed innovation as key ITW differentiators on par with our best-in-class operational capabilities and financial performance. Our leadership team and I are deeply committed to doing just that in delivering on ITW's 2030 enterprise performance goals.

正如 Scott 所說，由於過去 11 年我們在執行企業策略以充分利用 ITW 業務模式的潛力方面所做的工作，我們公司的表現從未如此出色，也從未為未來做好了更好的定位。我們企業策略下一階段的中心重點是提升高品質的有機成長和客戶支援的創新，將其作為 IT​​W 的關鍵差異化因素，與我們一流的營運能力和財務表現相媲美。我和我的領導團隊堅定致力於實現 ITW 的 2030 年企業績效目標。

Now let's turn to our Q3 performance. The strength and resilience of ITW's proprietary business model and high-quality diversified portfolio once again drove strong operational execution and financial performance this quarter. Starting with the top line. Organic growth was 2% on an equal days' basis as demand for CapEx slowed down in Test & Measurement and Electronics and Welding.

現在讓我們來看看第三季的表現。 ITW 專有業務模式的實力和彈性以及高品質的多元化投資組合再次推動了本季強勁的營運執行和財務表現。從頂線開始。由於測試與測量以及電子和焊接領域的資本支出需求放緩，有機成長率為 2%。

Our margin and income performance continues to be very robust. Operating margin improved 200 basis points year-over-year to 26.5% as Enterprise Initiatives contributed 140 basis points. Quarterly operating income grew 9% to $1.1 billion. GAAP EPS grew 9% to $2.55 and free cash flow was up 40%. With 3 quarters behind us, we are narrowing our EPS guidance to a range of $9.65 to $9.85, which now incorporates a $0.12 adjustment to the impact of the auto strike in Q4. Looking ahead at the balance of the year, the company remains well positioned to deliver another year of differentiated performance.

我們的利潤率和收入表現仍然非常強勁。營業利潤率年增 200 個基點至 26.5%，其中企業計畫貢獻了 140 個基點。季度營業收入成長 9%，達到 11 億美元。 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 9%，達到 2.55 美元，自由現金流成長 40%。現在已經過去了 3 個季度，我們將 EPS 指導範圍縮小至 9.65 美元至 9.85 美元，其中考慮了第四季度汽車罷工影響的 0.12 美元調整。展望今年剩餘時間，該公司仍處於有利地位，並有望在新的一年中實現差異化業績。

I'll now turn the call over to Michael to discuss our Q3 performance and full year guidance in more detail. Michael?

我現在將把電話轉給邁克爾，更詳細地討論我們第三季的業績和全年指導。麥可？

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Organic growth in the third quarter was essentially flat and plus 2% on an equal days basis as Q3 this year had 1 less shipping day compared to Q3 last year. Foreign currency translation impact was favorable by 1.5% and divestitures reduced revenue by 1.2%. The net result was revenue growth of 0.5%.

謝謝你，克里斯，大家早安。第三季的自然成長基本上持平，但以天數計算成長了 2%，因為今年第三季的運輸天數比去年第三季少了 1 個。外幣折算影響有利 1.5%，資產剝離使收入減少 1.2%。最終結果是營收成長 0.5%。

Third quarter operating margin was 26.5%, an increase of 200 basis points year-over-year as enterprise initiatives contributed 140 basis points and price/cost margin impact was positive 210 basis points. GAAP EPS of $2.55 was up 9% and included $0.07 net of favorable corporate items on a year-over-year basis starting with unallocated expense, which improved by $43 million due to lower employee-related expenses, including health and welfare and a onetime insurance recovery. This favorable item was partially offset by $16 million of lower other income, primarily due to lower investment income. As I said, the net effect of these 2 items was favorable $0.07 net per share.

第三季營業利益率為 26.5%，年成長 200 個基點，企業措施貢獻了 140 個基點，價格/成本利潤率影響為正 210 個基點。 GAAP 每股收益為2.55 美元，增長9%，其中扣除有利的公司項目後，​​與去年同期相比淨額為0.07 美元，從未分配費用開始，由於與員工相關的費用（包括健康和福利以及一次性保險）減少，未分配費用增加了4,300 萬美元恢復。這項有利的項目被 1600 萬美元的其他收入減少部分抵消，這主要是由於投資收入減少。正如我所說，這兩項的淨效應是有利的每股淨值 0.07 美元。

Free cash flow grew 40% to $856 million, with a conversion to net income of 111% as we continue to make solid progress on returning to our normal historical inventory levels. We repurchased $375 million of our shares this quarter and raised our dividend by 7% to an annualized payout of $5.60 per share, which marks our 60th year of raising the dividend. In summary, Q3 was another quarter of strong operational execution and financial performance.

隨著我們在恢復正常歷史庫存水準方面繼續取得紮實進展，自由現金流成長了 40%，達到 8.56 億美元，淨利潤轉換為 111%。本季我們回購了 3.75 億美元的股票，並將股息提高了 7%，達到每股 5.60 美元的年化派息，這標誌著我們提高股息的第 60 年。總而言之，第三季是另一個營運執行力和財務業績強勁的季度。

Turning to Slide 4, and organic revenue growth by geography. As you can see, North America was down 2%, Europe was about flat, and Asia Pacific was up 6%, with China up 8%, driven by the Automotive OEM segment. Excluding auto, China was down 1%.

轉向幻燈片 4，以及按地理位置劃分的有機收入成長。正如您所看到的，在汽車 OEM 領域的推動下，北美下降了 2%，歐洲基本上持平，亞太地區成長了 6%，其中中國成長了 8%。不包括汽車在內，中國股市下跌 1%。

Moving to the segments and starting with our Automotive OEM, organic growth was 4%. North America was down 5%, Europe was up 5% and China was up 18%. There was essentially no impact on Automotive OEM segment revenues from the auto strike in Q3. But as Chris noted, that will not be the case in Q4. As a reminder, our North American Automotive OEM business represents approximately 40% of total segment revenues. And within that 40%, approximately 2/3 of our annual sales are tied to D3 automotive customers.

轉向細分市場，從我們的汽車 OEM 開始，有機成長率為 4%。北美下降了 5%，歐洲成長了 5%，中國成長了 18%。第三季汽車罷工對汽車 OEM 部門的收入基本上沒有影響。但正如克里斯指出的那樣，第四季的情況不會如此。需要提醒的是，我們的北美汽車 OEM 業務約佔該部門總收入的 40%。在這 40% 中，我們年銷售額的約 2/3 與 D3 汽車客戶相關。

Included in our updated earnings guidance today is our estimate that the impact of the auto strike will reduce our Q4 earnings by $0.12 per share, which is essentially based on October D3 domestic production levels continuing through the remainder of the quarter.

我們今天更新的盈利指引中包括我們的估計，即汽車罷工的影響將使我們第四季度的每股收益減少0.12 美元，這基本上是基於10 月D3 國內生產水平，該水平持續到本季度剩餘時間。

Turning to Slide 5. Food Equipment delivered solid organic growth of 6% as Equipment was up 5% and Service grew 9%. North America grew 10%, with institutional sales up in the mid-teens, restaurants up high single digits and retail up in the high teens on the back of new product rollouts. Europe, however, was flat and Asia Pacific was up 6%.

轉向幻燈片 5。食品設備實現了 6% 的穩健有機增長，其中設備增長了 5%，服務增長了 9%。北美地區成長了 10%，機構銷售額成長了 15%，餐廳銷售額成長了個位數，零售額在新產品推出後成長了 10%。然而，歐洲持平，亞太地區上漲 6%。

In Test & Measurement and Electronics, organic revenue was down 4%, weighed down 6 percentage points by semiconductor-related demand, which represents about 15% of segments and for context, only 3% of ITW revenues. Overall, Test & Measurement grew 2% and as demand for CapEx slowed in the quarter and Electronics declined 13%.

在測試與測量和電子領域，有機收入下降了 4%，受到半導體相關需求的拖累，該需求下降了 6 個百分點，半導體相關需求約佔細分市場的 15%，僅佔 ITW 收入的 3%。總體而言，測試與測量業務成長了 2%，而本季資本支出需求放緩，電子業務下降了 13%。

Moving on to Slide 6. Welding's organic revenue declined 2% as Equipment revenue was down 3% on the back of softer demand for CapEx. Consumables were down 1% as industrial sales declined 9% versus a tough comparison of plus 30% last year. Commercial, however, was up 6% against an easier year-over-year comparison of down 10%. Overall, though North America revenue was down 3% and international was essentially flat.

轉到幻燈片 6。由於資本支出需求疲軟，設備收入下降了 3%，因此焊接業務的有機收入下降了 2%。工業銷售額下降 9%，消耗品下降 1%，而去年的增幅更高達 30%。然而，商業成長了 6%，而較去年同期下降了 10%。總體而言，儘管北美收入下降了 3%，而國際收入基本上持平。

Polymers & Fluids, organic revenue grew 3% as automotive aftermarket grew 10% due to the launch of new products. Polymers was down 1% and Fluids was down 4%. Margins were solid as operating margin improved 280 basis points to 28.1%.

聚合物和流體部門的有機收入成長了 3%，而汽車售後市場因新產品的推出而成長了 10%。聚合物下降 1%，流體下降 4%。利潤率穩健，營業利益率提高了 280 個基點，達到 28.1%。

Turning to Slide 7. Organic revenue in Construction was down 2% as North America grew 2%, with residential up 2% with some strength on the residential renovation side, which was up 7%. Commercial construction was down 2%. International markets were soft, with Europe down 8% and Australia and New Zealand down 4%. Margins were solid as operating margin improved 420 basis points to 29.9% with strong contributions from enterprise initiatives and price cost.

轉向幻燈片 7。建築業的有機收入下降了 2%，而北美增長了 2%，住宅增長了 2%，其中住宅翻新方面有一定實力，增長了 7%。商業建築下降 2%。國際市場疲軟，歐洲下跌 8%，澳洲和紐西蘭下跌 4%。由於企業措施和價格成本的強勁貢獻，營業利潤率提高了 420 個基點，達到 29.9%，利潤率保持穩定。

Finally, Specialty Products, organic revenue was down 6%. North America was down 9% and international grew 1%. Consumables were down 9% and Equipment revenue, which represents about 20% of the segment was up 9%.

最後，特種產品的有機收入下降了 6%。北美下降 9%，國際成長 1%。消耗品下降 9%，設備收入（約佔該部門的 20%）成長 9%。

Moving to Slide 8 and our updated full year 2023 guidance. As you saw this morning, we are narrowing the range of our GAAP EPS guidance to a new range of $9.65 to $9.85 which, as I mentioned earlier, includes a $0.12 adjustment for the estimated auto strike impact in Q4. Based on current levels of demand exiting Q3, including the estimated impact of the auto strike, we're projecting organic growth of 2% to 3% for the full year.

前往投影片 8 和我們更新的 2023 年全年指南。正如您今天早上所看到的，我們將GAAP 每股收益指引縮小到9.65 美元至9.85 美元的新範圍，正如我之前提到的，其中包括對第四季度汽車罷工影響的估計進行0.12 美元的調整。根據第三季目前的需求水平，包括汽車罷工的估計影響，我們預計全年有機成長為 2% 至 3%。

We are raising our full year operating margin guidance to 25% to 25.5% to reflect our stronger margin performance exiting the third quarter, and we expect that margins for the full year will improve by 150 basis points at the midpoint, including a contribution of more than 100 basis points from enterprise initiatives. We are projecting free cash flow conversion of more than 100% of net income for the year.

我們將全年營業利潤率指引提高至 25% 至 25.5%，以反映第三季後我們更強勁的利潤率表現，我們預計全年利潤率中點將提高 150 個基點，其中包括更多的貢獻企業措施超過100 個基點。我們預計今年的自由現金流轉換將超過淨利潤的 100%。

So while the overall demand environment clearly has some uncertainties in the near term, inventory normalization, elevated interest rates, increasing CapEx caution and the auto strike just to mention a few. The entire team at ITW remains focused on leveraging ITW's unique strengths and capabilities to optimize our ability to continue to deliver differentiated long-term performance.

因此，儘管整體需求環境在短期內顯然存在一些不確定性，但庫存正常化、利率上升、資本支出謹慎和汽車罷工僅舉幾例。 ITW 的整個團隊仍然專注於利用 ITW 獨特的優勢和能力來優化我們繼續提供差異化長期績效的能力。

With that, Karen, I'll turn it back to you.

這樣，凱倫，我會把它還給你。

Thank you, Michael. Krista, please open the lines up for questions.

謝謝你，麥可。克里斯塔，請打開提問隊列。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Scott Davis from Melius Research.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

I was -- the price/cost positive 200 basis -- 210 was better. I think we were thinking just some simple math kind of more like 100 to 150. What -- were you able to get more price in the quarter? Or was it lower cost or a little bit of both? Or just a little color there would be helpful.

我認為——價格/成本正 200 基礎上——210 更好。我想我們只是在想一些簡單的數學，例如 100 到 150。什麼——你能在這個季度獲得更多的價格嗎？還是成本更低還是兩者兼具？或者只是一點點顏色會有幫助。

Yes. So let me give you a little bit of context here. So we are definitely on track to recover the margin impact now from more than 2 years of unprecedented inflation, which now appears to have stabilized. There's definitely still some pressure on the cost side, on the labor side, components as well as energy. That said, we've made some good progress. Price/cost was positive 190 basis points in Q1, 216 in Q2, which was the peak and then 210 here in the third quarter. And we're now looking at somewhere around 150 basis points in Q4, and that would put us around 200 basis points recovery for the full year.

是的。因此，讓我在這裡為您提供一些背景資訊。因此，我們現在肯定有望從兩年多前所未有的通膨中恢復利潤率影響，目前通膨似乎已經穩定下來。成本方面、勞動力方面、零件方面以及能源方面肯定仍然存在一些壓力。也就是說，我們已經取得了一些很好的進展。第一季的價格/成本為正 190 個基點，第二季為 216 個基點，這是峰值，然後在第三季為 210 個基點。我們現在預計第四季將實現 150 個基點左右，這將使我們全年復甦 200 個基點左右。

Price is holding, and we're seeing a little bit of deflation on the -- more on the commodity side. So these would be the metals, in particular, which drove the stronger performance here on price/cost in the third quarter.

價格保持不變，我們看到了一點通貨緊縮——更多的是大宗商品方面的通貨緊縮。因此，這些金屬尤其推動了第三季價格/成本的強勁表現。

That's helpful. Chris, I know it's early. You've got another couple of months, but is there kind of a plan for the first 90 days? Or where do you see the -- I guess the focus shifting, is there a little bit more emphasis on portfolio? Or -- I know you mentioned kind of driving higher growth rates, but they're just -- given the diversity of end markets you sell into, there's just so much you can do on that front. But maybe just a little color on where you planning on spending your first kind of 3 to 6 months and focusing?

這很有幫助。克里斯，我知道現在還早。你還有幾個月的時間，但前 90 天有什麼計畫嗎？或者你在哪裡看到——我猜焦點正在轉移，是否更強調投資組合？或者 - 我知道你提到了推動更高的成長率，但它們只是 - 考慮到你銷售的終端市場的多樣性，在這方面你可以做很多事情。但也許只是對您計劃在第一個 3 到 6 個月的時間和重點關注的地方進行一些說明？

Yes. So Scott, I would say, in general, our plan is very much in line with what we outlined at our Investor Day in terms of really ensuring that we continue to strengthen our foundation, which is our business model and obviously then building organic growth as a core strength on par with our operational capabilities and financial performance over time.

是的。所以斯科特，我想說，總的來說，我們的計劃與我們在投資者日概述的內容非常一致，真正確保我們繼續加強我們的基礎，這是我們的商業模式，然後顯然然後建立有機成長隨著時間的推移，與我們的營運能力和財務表現相當的核心優勢。

I think the first 90 days I'm just learning the job, just go out and pretty good understanding of our businesses already, but obviously, working with our businesses to make sure that our strategy is well [potted] down with our businesses, which, of course, it is, that's really the plan for the first 90 days, I would say. But it's really in the context of being very committed to this -- the strategy for the next phase, which is to sustain the strong foundation we have around our business model, we're really leaning in and continuing to build our organic growth capabilities to be on par with our operational capabilities and our financial performance.

我認為前 90 天我只是在學習這份工作，剛出去就已經很好地了解了我們的業務，但顯然，與我們的業務合作以確保我們的策略與我們的業務緊密結合，這當然，我想說，這確實是前90 天的計畫。但這確實是在非常致力於這一目標的背景下——下一階段的策略，即維持我們圍繞我們的業務模式所擁有的堅實基礎，我們確實在努力並繼續建立我們的有機增長能力，以實現與我們的營運能力和財務表現相當。

Congrats, Scott, a fantastic run, really exceptional.

恭喜斯科特，這是一場精彩的比賽，非常出色。

Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tami Zakaria。

So my first question is, I wanted to understand the operating margin expansion a bit better, 200 basis points, enterprise initiative 140, price/cost 210. So what was the drag to get to the 200 basis points expansion. I remember you were investing in labor and compensation this year. Is that still there? And when do you expect that to taper off, especially as you look into 2024?

所以我的第一個問題是，我想更了解營業利潤率擴張，200 個基點，企業主動性 140，價格/成本 210。那麼，達到 200 個基點擴張的阻力是什麼。我記得今年你們在勞動力和薪資方面進行了投資。那還在那裡嗎？您預計這種情況何時會逐漸減少，尤其是展望 2024 年？

So you're right. If you look at the margin improvement year-over-year, another really strong contribution from Enterprise Industries. I think the best performance in 2.5 years, which is really remarkable given where we're at in the enterprise strategy. Price/cost, we talked about 210, and then 160 basis points of, I don't want to call it headwind necessarily because these are investments that we're making in our long-term organic growth initiatives, including new hires as well as then, obviously, the regular wage and benefit inflation that everybody else is seeing. That all adds up to about 160 basis points. And that's how you get to -- even with all of those investments that we continue to make, you're getting 200 basis points of margin improvement on a year-over-year basis to 26.5%, which I believe was a new record for the third quarter.

所以你是對的。如果你看看利潤率逐年提高，這是來自 Enterprise Industries 的另一個真正強勁的貢獻。我認為這是 2.5 年來最好的表現，考慮到我們在企業策略中的位置，這確實非常了不起。價格/成本，我們討論了 210 個基點，然後是 160 個基點，我不一定要稱之為逆風，因為這些是我們在長期有機增長計劃中進行的投資，包括新員工以及然後，顯然，其他人都看到了正常工資和福利的通貨膨脹。所有這些加起來約為 160 個基點。這就是你如何實現的——即使我們繼續進行所有這些投資，你的利潤率仍將同比提高 200 個基點，達到 26.5%，我認為這是一個新紀錄。第三季。

Does that 150 basis points headwind continue in the fourth quarter and maybe in the next several quarters, how should we think about that headwind?

150個基點的逆風是否會在第四季持續，也許在接下來的幾個季度，我們該如何看待這種逆風？

Yes, I think the normal run rate is somewhere -- we've been running higher than that this year. The normal run rate, and we'll see how the plans roll up for next year. I don't want to get too far ahead of myself. But if you look at historically, that's about 100 to 150 basis points of headwind.

是的，我認為正常運行率在某個地方——我們今年的運行率高於這個水平。正常運作率，我們將看看明年的計畫如何推進。我不想太過超前。但如果你回顧歷史，你會發現這大約是 100 到 150 個基點的逆風。

Got it. Can I ask one more quick one? The $0.12 headwind from the auto strike you're calling out for the fourth quarter, does that assume the strike continues through the end of the quarter? And what does that mean in terms of organic growth headwind for the fourth quarter?

知道了。我可以再問一個嗎？您呼籲第四季度汽車罷工帶來 0.12 美元的逆風，這是否假設罷工持續到本季結束？這對於第四季的有機成長阻力意味著什麼？

Yes. So Tami, let me just broaden the lens maybe a little bit here. I think given the uncertainty around auto and the fact that the strike is now in the sixth week here, we decided that we take a more prudent approach, which is basically based on what we're seeing in our businesses right now, maybe with room for things deteriorating a little bit further from where they are today. And if you take that quarter-to-date impact and extrapolate through year-end, that's how you get the $0.12 of EPS adjustment that's now embedded in our guidance. So assuming -- to answer your question, it continues through year-end. If the strike ends before year-end, obviously, we'll do better than that. If it gets worse, our businesses will do a great job in terms of reading and reacting to the conditions on the ground.

是的。塔米，讓我把視角擴大一點。我認為，考慮到汽車行業的不確定性以及罷工已經進入第六週的事實，我們決定採取更謹慎的方法，這基本上是基於我們目前在業務中看到的情況，也許還有空間因為事情比現在的情況進一步惡化。如果您考慮季度至今的影響並推斷到年底，您就可以獲得 0.12 美元的 EPS 調整，該調整現已納入我們的指導下。因此，假設 - 為了回答你的問題，它會持續到年底。如果罷工在年底前結束，顯然我們會做得更好。如果情況變得更糟，我們的企業將在了解當地情況並做出反應方面做得很好。

The optimist might say that some of those -- that production will get deferred into next year. But obviously, a lot of uncertainty, and given that we don't really want to pin down a revenue number, we're just going to give you here the $0.12 of adjustment that I just laid out for you.

樂觀者可能會說，其中一些生產將推遲到明年。但顯然，存在著許多不確定性，考慮到我們並不想確定收入數字，我們只是給您我剛剛為您安排的 0.12 美元的調整。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓（Andrew Obin）。

So question, I think before you were talking about sort of 25% of the portfolio slowing structure over the past couple of quarters. Have any of those markets bottom like electronics? And have any new markets started to slow? Or is it the same 25%? Just how do you look at the world?

所以問題是，我認為在您談論過去幾季 25% 的投資組合放緩結構之前。這些市場是否像電子產品市場一樣觸底？有沒有新市場開始放緩？還是一樣的25%？只是你如何看待這個世界？

Andrew, so there's definitely some puts and takes. I think, for example, if you had asked me that question last quarter, I would have said automotive OEM -- automotive aftermarket would be in that category. They were up 10%. So just an example of things moving in and out. So I'm not sure it's really that relevant to look at. But if you just look at what we would say now is kind of slowing to 25%. On a combined basis, those businesses were down year-over-year, 3% in the third quarter. However, sequentially, they did improve from the second quarter by a percentage point, which I would say fairly stable. .

安德魯，所以肯定有一些變化。例如，我想，如果你在上個季度問我這個問題，我會說汽車 OEM——汽車售後市場就屬於這個類別。他們上漲了 10%。這只是一個事物進出的例子。所以我不確定它是否真的有那麼重要的意義。但如果你只看一下我們現在所說的增速，就會放緩至 25%。綜合來看，這些業務第三季年減了 3%。然而，隨後，他們確實比第二季提高了一個百分點，我想說這是相當穩定的。 。

Talking about electronics and semi specifically, I think consumer electronics remains fairly weak. On the semiconductor side, you will recall that we've talked about an expectation from industry experts, I'll call them as well as our customers that there would be a reacceleration of demand here in the second half of this year. And that now looks like it's been deferred probably until sometime next year. Now obviously, we remain, as we now do on a, let's say, ongoing basis, committed to those businesses. We continue to invest and really position ourselves for the inevitable recovery down the road, which hopefully comes next year in 2024 and making sure that we're well positioned to take full advantage of the long-term growth opportunities that we believe are right in front of us in that part of our businesses, so.

具體來說，就電子產品和半成品而言，我認為消費性電子產品仍然相當疲軟。在半導體方面，您會記得我們已經談到了行業專家的期望，我會打電話給他們以及我們的客戶，今年下半年需求將重新加速。現在看來，它可能被推遲到明年的某個時候。現在顯然，我們仍然致力於這些業務，就像我們現在所做的那樣，可以說，是持續的。我們繼續投資，並為未來不可避免的復甦做好準備，希望在明年 2024 年實現，並確保我們處於有利位置，能夠充分利用我們認為就在眼前的長期增長機會我們從事這部分業務，所以。

Got you. And then maybe you've answered this question as you talked about the business overall, but in Construction Products and Polymers & Fluids, the changes in variable margin cost was a material benefit to margin year-over-year and has been year-to-date. Anything specific that you're doing in these businesses? And how much more runway is there?

明白你了。然後，也許您在談論整體業務時已經回答了這個問題，但在建築產品和聚合物和流體領域，可變利潤成本的變化對利潤率同比帶來了實質性好處，並且逐年-日期。您在這些業務中做了哪些具體的事情？還有多少跑道？

Well, there's a lot of work that's going on in those businesses to deliver these results. Obviously, I'd say the categories you're familiar with and the first one is the ongoing contribution from the enterprise initiatives. And so both the segments that you mentioned had a significant contribution from enterprise initiatives as well as favorable price/cost impact. So those are really the 2 big drivers in those businesses.

嗯，為了取得這些成果，這些企業正在進行大量工作。顯然，我想說的是您熟悉的類別，第一個類別是企業計劃的持續貢獻。因此，您提到的兩個細分市場都對企業計劃以及有利的價格/成本影響做出了重大貢獻。所以這些確實是這些業務的兩大驅動因素。

And I think it is pretty remarkable that they're putting up record quarterly margin performance given, frankly, not a lot of volume growth, not a lot of volume leverage. So you can imagine once we get the volume leverage going again, as Chris was talking about at incrementals kind of in that [35% to 40%] range, there's even more runway for margin improvement.

我認為，坦白說，考慮到銷售成長並不多，銷售槓桿率也不高，他們創造了創紀錄的季度利潤率表現，這是非常了不起的。因此，你可以想像，一旦我們再次提高成交量槓桿率，正如克里斯所說的 [35% 至 40%] 範圍內的增量，利潤率改善的空間就更大了。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的史蒂文費雪。

Congratulations, Scott. Within the Welding segment, it seemed like the year-over-year was a little weaker on the industrial side relative to last quarter and maybe a little better on the commercial. Is that something that you're projecting at least in the near term? And to what extent is there a margin mix difference between those 2 subsegments that you could be aware of?

恭喜你，斯科特。在焊接領域，與上季相比，工業方面的年比情況似乎稍弱，而商業方面的情況可能好一些。這是您至少在短期內計劃的事情嗎？您可能知道這兩個細分市場之間的利潤率組合差異有多大？

So there's not a lot of difference in terms of the margin performance. But I think this is -- these are some great data points that illustrate kind of the dynamic nature of the environment that we're operating in. And really, what I tried to lay out in the commentary was what's driving this on a year-over-year basis are just a comparison. So it's really hard to draw any conclusions from the year-over-year comparisons.

因此，就利潤率表現而言，沒有太大差異。但我認為，這些都是一些很好的數據點，說明了我們所處環境的動態性質。實際上，我在評論中試圖闡述的是這一年的推動因素——同比只是比較。因此，很難從同比比較中得出任何結論。

What I think we can say broadly in Welding, as we said upfront, is that the overall demand for equipment appears to be slowing down a little bit in the near term, whether that will remain at those levels on a go-forward basis is difficult to say at this point. Backlogs have normalized. We're not really a backlog-driven company. We're now back to 2 to 3 weeks of backlog at the enterprise level.

我認為我們在焊接方面可以廣泛地說，正如我們前面所說，短期內對設備的整體需求似乎略有放緩，但未來是否會保持在這些水平是很困難的說到這裡。積壓已正常化。我們並不是一家真正以積壓為導向的公司。現在，我們的企業級積壓工作又回到了 2 到 3 週。

And then the last point I'll make is we're still seeing meaningful impact from our customers and channel partners reducing their levels of inventory. So if you think about at the enterprise level, that was 1 point to 1.5 points of organic growth drag.

我要說的最後一點是，我們仍然看到客戶和通路合作夥伴降低庫存水準所產生的有意義的影響。因此，如果你從企業層面考慮，那就是 1 到 1.5 個百分點的有機成長拖累。

So just to maybe normalize the Q3 results a little bit on the top line. So 2% on an equal days' basis, and then you factor in the inventory adjustments, you're back at [3, 3.5] just to kind of put things in context a little bit. But there's no question that the activity slowed down a little bit on the welding side here in the third quarter.

因此，也許只是為了在頂線上稍微標準化第三季的結果。因此，在相同天數的基礎上為 2%，然後考慮庫存調整，您會回到 [3, 3.5]，只是為了稍微了解一下情況。但毫無疑問，第三季焊接的活動略有放緩。

Okay. That's helpful. And then when would you get an idea of how your price versus cost is going to shape up for 2024? I'm getting the sense broadly in industrial it is going to be pretty tight. Would you agree with that? And is that something you can sort of 80-20 to kind of tilted in your favor?

好的。這很有幫助。那麼您什麼時候才能了解 2024 年的價格與成本將如何變動？我普遍認為工業領域將會非常緊張。你同意嗎？這是否可以讓你以 80-20 的比例向對你有利的方向傾斜？

Well, so we haven't even rolled up our plans yet for next year. That really happens at the end of this month, and then we'll have some good discussions with our segments and we'll get a much better handle on what the price/cost equation might look like.

嗯，所以我們還沒有總結明年的計劃。這確實會在本月底發生，然後我們將與我們的部門進行一些良好的討論，我們將更好地掌握價格/成本等式的情況。

I do think if you just look at the margin recovery trajectory that we're on. We haven't fully recovered the margin impact. And so I think it's not unreasonable to assume that there will be some carryover into maybe the first half of next year. And then you add on top of that maybe our normal pricing. But again, I don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves. We'll give you a lot more detail when we give you guidance for the full year, which will be early next year. But certainly, if you're -- price is holding at current levels and the raw material cost -- direct material cost equation, those -- that has stabilized. We're not seeing significant deflation at this point, but we're also not seeing anything close to the inflation we've seen over the last 2 years. So that's kind of the good news here.

我確實認為，如果你只看一下我們目前的利潤率復原軌跡。我們尚未完全恢復利潤率影響。因此，我認為假設可能會有一些結轉到明年上半年並不是沒有道理的。然後您還可以添加我們的正常定價。但同樣，我不想太超前。當我們為您提供全年（明年初）指導時，我們將為您提供更多詳細資訊。但當然，如果價格保持在當前水平，而原材料成本——直接材料成本等式——已經穩定下來。目前我們沒有看到嚴重的通貨緊縮，但我們也沒有看到任何接近過去兩年的通貨膨脹的情況。這是一個好消息。

Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe one area I was interested in was Test & Measurement and Electronics. Also, in light of sort of progress on the integration of the acquisition, how that's gone as it's been in the portfolio several quarters now? And also just on the base business, very mixed reads some of various peers in that market. Any color you could give us on kind of expectations for Q4 on Electronics versus, say, Test & Measurement within that, please?

也許我感興趣的一個領域是測試與測量和電子。此外，鑑於收購整合的進展情況，它在投資組合中幾季的進展如何？而且就基礎業務而言，該市場上的一些同行的讀物也非常複雜。您能告訴我們對第四季電子產品與測試與測量的期望有什麼不同嗎？

Yes. So Julian, we don't give quarterly guidance. But I think if you look at historical information, you'll see that there's typically a ramp-up in Test & Measurement and Electronics in Q4 relative to Q3. And so we do expect some of that. I think overall, on the electronics side, like I said, the consumer electronics end market remains soft. Just semi in isolation is down 20%, 25% on a year-over-year basis. And that's -- last year, that was about a $500 million segment. So we're definitely seeing -- that's what's driving these results.

是的。朱利安，我們不提供季度指導。但我認為，如果您查看歷史信息，您會發現第四季度的測試與測量和電子產品相對於第三季度通常會有所增長。所以我們確實期待其中的一些。我認為總體而言，在電子產品方面，正如我所說，消費性電子終端市場仍然疲軟。僅半孤立同比就下降了 20%、25%。去年，這個部分的價值約為 5 億美元。所以我們肯定看到——這就是推動這些結果的原因。

If you take out the semi impact in Test & Measurement and Electronics we're actually up 2% on a year-over-year basis. But we expect this pressure to continue. We're not counting on a recovery here in the fourth quarter. It's based on run rate and typical seasonality. I'd say on MTS overall, maybe, Chris, do you want to make some comments? You were just up there. So maybe you want to...

如果除去測試與測量和電子領域的半影響，我們實際上比去年同期成長了 2%。但我們預計這種壓力將持續下去。我們不指望第四季出現復甦。它基於運行率和典型的季節性。我想說的是，關於 MTS 的整體情況，克里斯，你想發表一些評論嗎？你剛剛在那裡。所以也許你想...

Yes. So I would say, Julian, that certainly the assumptions we made when we acquired the MTS business in terms of strategic fit and financial rationale have been very much validated by our 2 years of owning the business. The business has performed very well. We are currently in the process of implementing our business model. We're already starting to see some real nice results accruing from that. But we strongly feel this is going to be a very, very successful ITW acquisition.

是的。 Julian，所以我想說，我們在收購 MTS 業務時所做的戰略契合度和財務理由方面的假設，在我們擁有該業務的兩年中得到了充分驗證。業務表現非常好。我們目前正在實施我們的商業模式。我們已經開始看到由此產生的一些真正好的結果。但我們強烈認為這將是一次非常非常成功的 ITW 收購。

In fact, we are taking our Board of Directors up to MTS later this week for them to witness firsthand the level of progress that we've made on the integration in terms of implementing our business model. But like I say, 2 years in, so far so good. Great people, great brands, great technology, great opportunity to improve the business model. And like I said, this is going to be a great ITW business in the long term.

事實上，我們將在本週稍後將董事會帶到 MTS，讓他們親眼見證我們在實施業務模式方面所取得的整合進展水準。但就像我說的，兩年過去了，到目前為止一切都很好。偉大的人才、偉大的品牌、偉大的技術、改進商業模式的絕佳機會。正如我所說，從長遠來看，這將是一項偉大的 ITW 業務。

Yes. And I would just add maybe to quantify what Chris is talking about in the short term, this business grew double-digit top line in the third quarter. And you'll recall maybe margins coming in were somewhere around 7%. And through the implementation of the business model, at this point, we are -- the outlook for the full year is in the mid-teens. So right on track in terms of the potential that we thought we had when we acquired the business. So good progress.

是的。我想補充一點，也許是為了量化克里斯在短期內所說的內容，該業務在第三季度實現了兩位數的營收成長。您可能還記得，利潤率可能約為 7%。透過商業模式的實施，目前，我們全年的前景是在十幾歲左右。就我們收購該業務時所認為的潛力而言，我們正走在正軌上。進步如此之好。

That's helpful. And good to hear on MTS. Maybe just a broader question, perhaps amidst the sort of the CEO transition that was announced and congratulations to both Scott and Chris. But maybe on the sort of thinking about the top line a little bit and it looks like maybe some of the share gains that ITW had enjoyed just after COVID maybe have eased to date or eased in the last 12 months or so. I realize there's some destocking noise in various channels and so looking at market share in that context may not be that helpful. But just wanted sort of perspectives on market share across the larger ITW businesses. And whether there's perhaps a need to redeploy a greater share of enterprise initiatives or price/cost savings into sort of organic reinvestment in the base business?

這很有幫助。很高興在 MTS 上聽到這一消息。也許只是一個更廣泛的問題，也許是在宣布的執行長換屆以及對斯科特和克里斯的祝賀中。但也許稍微考慮一下營收，ITW 在新冠疫情之後所享有的一些份額收益可能迄今為止已經有所緩解，或者在過去 12 個月左右的時間裡有所緩解。我意識到各種管道都存在一些去庫存的噪音，因此在這種情況下查看市場份額可能沒有那麼有幫助。但只是想了解大型 ITW 業務的市場佔有率。是否可能需要將更大份額的企業計劃或價格/成本節約重新部署到基礎業務的有機再投資中？

Maybe I'll start and then, Chris, you can jump in. I think I'll start by saying we completely disagree with the premise that we are not gaining market share. Recognizing that it may be difficult for you looking in from the outside to decipher those market share gains on an annual basis. But if you go to every one of our divisions, they will have a very clear picture, all 84 of them in terms of what market growth is and what their growth rate is and what their competitors are growing at. And in all cases, we would say that given our competitive advantages that we derive from the business model in terms of our customer-facing metrics, in terms of our -- the value add that our customers are getting from buying our products, we're continuing to gain share in the markets that we're focused on.

也許我會開始，然後克里斯，你可以插話。我想我首先要說的是，我們完全不同意我們沒有獲得市場份額的前提。認識到您可能很難從外部觀察每年的市場份額增長情況。但如果你去我們的每個部門，他們都會非常清楚地了解所有 84 個部門的市場成長、成長率以及競爭對手的成長。在所有情況下，我們都會說，鑑於我們從面向客戶的指標方面的業務模式中獲得的競爭優勢，就我們的客戶從購買我們的產品中獲得的附加價值而言，我們將繼續在我們關注的市場中獲得份額。

And in some cases, you're able to look at public company peers, you can peel back the onion a little bit. And if you do that work -- if you were to do that work, Julian you'll see that we are gaining market share in the areas that we are focused on. And I might just add, not only are we gaining market share, but I'll just note the margin performance of our businesses relative to our competitors which typically we are running at 2, 3x our competitors, and you can look at Food Equipment and Lincoln and the Welding side, for example, and you'll see that, that is the case. But maybe, Chris, if you want to comment a little bit?

在某些情況下，你可以看看上市公司的同行，你可以剝掉洋蔥一點。如果你做了這項工作 - 如果你要做這項工作，朱利安，你會發現我們正在我們專注的領域獲得市場份額。我可能會補充一點，我們不僅獲得了市場份額，而且我只是注意到我們業務相對於競爭對手的利潤率表現，通常我們的運營速度是競爭對手的 2、3 倍，您可以看看食品設備和例如，林肯和焊接方面，你會看到，情況就是如此。但也許，克里斯，你想發表一下評論嗎？

Yes, I would echo everything Michael just said in terms of the quality of our portfolio, in terms of the amount of room we have to grow in each segment customer-facing performance and so on and the focused investments that we've made in areas like sales and innovation, coupled with the fact that we've seen a nicely improving yield on customer-back innovation, all this gives that credence to what we're hearing from our businesses that we are getting share in most of our key markets in relation to our competition.

是的，我同意邁克爾剛才所說的一切，包括我們的投資組合的品質、我們在每個細分市場面向客戶的績效等方面必須增長的空間以及我們在這些領域進行的重點投資就像銷售和創新一樣，再加上我們已經看到客戶支援創新的產量有了很好的提高，所有這些都使我們從我們的企業那裡聽到的消息更加可信，即我們在大多數關鍵市場中都獲得了份額與我們的競爭有關。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre from Baird.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Mig Dobre。

Congrats to Scott, Chris. So a quick question on Construction. In your comments, you mentioned that resi renovation channel has done -- doing quite well. Maybe a little more color there. Is that a function of new products or anything going on in the channel? I just found that to be a little bit surprising given where productivity and interest rates and all of that seems to be?

恭喜斯科特，克里斯。這是一個關於建築的快速問題。在您的評論中，您提到 Resi 翻新頻道已經做得很好。也許那裡有更多的顏色。這是新產品的功能還是通路中發生的任何事情？我只是發現，考慮到生產力和利率以及所有這些似乎在哪裡，這有點令人驚訝？

Yes. So again, Mig, you're right. This is on the residential renovation remodel side of things. So these are typically sales through big box retailers, names that you'd be familiar with. And I think if you look at -- I think somebody asked earlier about market share, this is a great example of really strong market share gains in this particular end market. Because I agree with you, if you just look at the underlying data, you might be a little surprised that, that part of the business is up 7% year-over-year in the current interest rate environment. And like I said, this is essentially all volume and share gain through the big box retailers.

是的。再說一次，米格，你是對的。這是住宅裝修改造方面的事。因此，這些通常是透過您熟悉的大型零售商進行的銷售。我認為，如果你看一下——我想有人早些時候問過市場份額，這是這個特定終端市場中市場份額真正強勁增長的一個很好的例子。因為我同意你的觀點，如果你只看基礎數據，你可能會有點驚訝，在當前的利率環境下，這部分業務比去年同期增長了 7%。正如我所說，這基本上是透過大型零售商獲得的所有銷售和份額。

And presumably, that has some staying power beyond this quarter?

想必這在本季之後仍有一定的持久力？

Well, I think that overall construction in North America actually remains fairly stable. I'd say maybe a little bit more concern on the international side, which has been weak. The market demand has been a lot softer on the international side. But North America -- keep in mind that in the fourth quarter, typically, we talked about seasonality by segment, I said Test & Measurement usually does better. Construction is one where, for obvious reasons, the fourth quarter is typically a little bit lower than the third quarter. But in terms of the share gains and our -- the strength in this particular part of the business, that absolutely has staying power.

嗯，我認為北美的整體建設實際上仍然相當穩定。我想說的是，國際的擔憂可能會多一點，因為國際方面一直很弱。國際市場需求明顯疲軟。但北美 - 請記住，在第四季度，通常我們會按細分市場討論季節性，我說測試與測量通常會做得更好。由於顯而易見的原因，建築業第四季的產量通常略低於第三季。但就份額收益和我們在該業務特定部分的實力而言，這絕對具有持久力。

Great. Then my follow-up, maybe on Food Equipment. I'm curious as to how the supply chain has sort of evolved for you here and where your lead times are? I know you've got a number of verticals within this segment, but some context there would be helpful. And also, where are you from a backlog perspective? Are you seeing any sort of noise in the channel around destocking? Or is the segment perhaps less impacted than others?

偉大的。然後我的後續行動，可能是關於食品設備。我很好奇你們的供應鏈是如何演變的以及你們的交貨時間在哪裡？我知道這個細分市場中有許多垂直領域，但一些背景知識會有所幫助。另外，從積壓的角度來看，您處於什麼位置？您是否在渠道中看到了有關去庫存的任何噪音？或者該細分市場受到的影響比其他細分市場小？

So Mig, just from a lead time perspective, I would say that a natural outcome of our business model is best-in-class lead times and customer-facing performance. And we are very much back to where we were pre-pandemic in terms of our ability to supply our customers. In terms of the channel, yes, I think it's an area where there is a little bit of inventory in the channel. We're seeing that coming down. It's probably still out there. It's one of the segments that has been impacted, I think, by channel inventory likely to come down over the next couple of quarters here, but it's fair now for sure.

因此，Mig，僅從交貨時間的角度來看，我想說我們業務模式的自然結果是一流的交貨時間和客戶導向的績效。在為客戶提供服務的能力方面，我們已經回到了大流行前的水平。就渠道而言，是的，我認為這是一個渠道中有一點庫存的領域。我們看到這種情況正在下降。它可能還在外面。我認為，這是受到通路庫存可能在未來幾季下降的影響的細分市場之一，但現在肯定是公平的。

Yes. And then just on the backlog, we're back to normal levels which, in our case, given our customer delivery performance is 2 to 3 weeks. So we're back to kind of normal levels here.

是的。然後，就積壓而言，我們回到了正常水平，在我們的例子中，考慮到我們的客戶交付績效為 2 到 3 週。所以我們回到了正常水平。

Your next question comes from the line of Joe O'Dea from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

Congrats to both Scott and Chris. I guess I wanted to stay on that topic in terms of the channel inventory normalization, something you talked about last quarter. I think size is pretty similarly last quarter. And so the question is just any changes that you've seen from kind of June, July into where we are now in terms of the trends on some of that inventory rationalization, whether regions, end markets, pace of it or if it's all kind of trending in line with expectations as of a couple of months ago?

祝賀斯科特和克里斯。我想我想繼續討論通路庫存標準化方面的話題，這是您上季度談到的。我認為上個季度的規模非常相似。因此，問題是從 6 月、7 月到我們現在的庫存合理化趨勢所看到的任何變化，無論是地區、終端市場、節奏還是一切。趨勢與幾個月前的預期相符嗎？

I'd say this is trending right in line with expectations that we kind of laid out on the last call. Like I said, the drag on the organic growth rate of 1% to 1.5% was pretty broad-based. Every segment had some impact, very similar Q3 as Q2, and we think this will probably be with us for a few more quarters. And I'd just say, if you just look at our own inventory levels, we are currently running slightly above 3 months on hand, where typically we're running at low 2s. And we estimate that in our case, it will take us probably until kind of early mid next year to get back to normal inventory levels as we work through the exact same things that our customers and channel partners are working through. And I might just add here that that's obviously going to continue to drive some really strong free cash flow performance for ITW as inventory levels and working capital continues to normalize as a result of supply chain having stabilized.

我想說，這一趨勢與我們在上次電話會議中提出的預期相符。正如我所說，1% 至 1.5% 的有機成長率受到的拖累是相當廣泛的。每個細分市場都產生了一些影響，第三季與第二季非常相似，我們認為這種影響可能還會持續數季。我只想說，如果你看看我們自己的庫存水平，我們目前的庫存水平略高於 3 個月，而通常情況下我們的庫存水平只有 2 個月左右。我們估計，就我們的情況而言，我們可能需要到明年初中旬才能恢復到正常的庫存水平，因為我們正在處理與客戶和通路合作夥伴正在處理的完全相同的事情。我想補充一點，隨著供應鏈趨於穩定，庫存水準和營運資金繼續正常化，這顯然將繼續為 ITW 帶來真正強勁的自由現金流表現。

And then how does that kind of compare relate to some of what you're seeing from your customers right now. I think in the prepared remarks, you talked about maybe a little bit of slower kind of CapEx demand trends out of your customers, what you're seeing in sort of Test & Measurement or Welding and the degree to what you're hearing from customers is this is more inventory related or if it's something that's a little bit of a pause that's more maybe macro uncertainty-related?

那麼這種比較與您現在從客戶那裡看到的一些內容有何關係。我認為在準備好的發言中，您談到了客戶的資本支出需求趨勢可能有點慢，您在測試和測量或焊接方面看到了什麼，以及您從客戶那裡聽到的程度這是否更多地與庫存相關，或者如果有一點停頓，則可能更多地與宏觀不確定性相關？

I think it's really hard to tell. I mean, I think overall, the demand environment, as we said, there's clearly some uncertainties here in the near term, inventory as part of that, the interest rate environment, everybody being maybe a little bit more cautious on the CapEx side. And then in one of our segments, particularly the auto strike. So there's a lot of things going on here. It is a pretty dynamic environment. It can change pretty quickly.

我覺得這真的很難說。我的意思是，我認為總體而言，需求環境，正如我們所說，短期內顯然存在一些不確定性，庫存是其中的一部分，利率環境，每個人在資本支出方面可能會更加謹慎。然後是我們的一個細分市場，特別是汽車罷工。所以這裡發生了很多事情。這是一個非常動態的環境。它可以很快改變。

The only thing we know for sure is that the ITW team will continue to read and react to whatever conditions are on the ground. And I think if you just look at our track record, we'll continue to deliver differentiated long-term performance. And so that's really our focus is on continuing to do just that.

我們唯一確定的是，ITW 團隊將繼續了解當地的情況並做出反應。我認為，如果你看看我們的業績記錄，我們將繼續提供差異化的長期業績。因此，我們的重點實際上是繼續這樣做。

Thank you for participating in today's conference call. All lines may disconnect at this time. Have a wonderful day.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。此時所有線路可能會斷開。祝你有美好的一天。