Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

My name is Tamika, and I will be your conference operator today.

我的名字是 Tamika，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the ITW's fourth-quarter earnings conference call.

現在，我歡迎大家參加 ITW 第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員指令）。

Erin Linnihan, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

投資者關係副總裁 Erin Linnihan，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Tamika.

謝謝你，塔米卡。

Good morning, and welcome to ITW's fourth quarter 2024 conference call.

早安，歡迎參加 ITW 2024 年第四季電話會議。

I'm joined by our President and CEO, Chris O'Herlihy; and Senior Vice President and CFO, Michael Larsen.

與我一起出席的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris O'Herlihy；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Michael Larsen。

During today's call, we will discuss ITW's fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results and provide guidance for full year 2025.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將討論 ITW 2024 年第四季和全年的財務業績，並為 2025 年全年提供指導。

Slide 2 is a reminder that this presentation contains forward-looking statements.

投影片 2 提醒您，本簡報包含前瞻性陳述。

Please refer to the company's 2023 Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the SEC for more detail about important risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations.

有關可能導致實際結果與我們的預期存在重大差異的重要風險的更多詳細信息，請參閱該公司 2023 年 10-K 表格及其向美國證券交易委員會提交的後續報告。

This presentation uses certain non-GAAP measures, and a reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is contained in the press release.

本報告採用了某些非 GAAP 指標，新聞稿中包含了這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳。

Please turn to slide 3, and it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Chris O'Herlihy.

請翻到幻燈片 3，現在我很高興將電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris O'Herlihy。

Chris?

克里斯？

Thank you, Erin, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，艾琳，大家早安。

As you saw in our press release this morning, in Q4, ITW delivered a solid finish to the year.

正如您在我們今天早上的新聞稿中看到的，ITW 在第四季度為今年取得了圓滿的成績。

We outperformed our underlying end markets, organic growth turning positive, excluding product line simplification, and we continue to execute well on controlling the controllables to expand operating margins and free cash flow to record levels.

我們的表現超越了基礎終端市場，不包括產品線簡化在內的有機成長轉為正值，並且我們繼續在控制可控因素方面表現良好，從而將營業利潤率和自由現金流擴大到創紀錄的水平。

GAAP EPS improved 7% to $2.54. In end markets that we believe were down in the low to mid-single digits, fourth quarter organic revenue declined 0.5 point, which is a point better than the 1.4% decline in Q3.

GAAP EPS 成長 7% 至 2.54 美元。我們認為，在終端市場中，收入下降幅度在低至中等個位數之間，第四季度有機收入下降了 0.5 個百分點，比第三季 1.4% 的降幅好一點。

Excluding the impact of product line simplification, primarily due to strategic repositioning for growth in our Specialty Products segment, organic revenue growth was positive 0.4%.

排除產品線簡化的影響（主要由於我們特種產品部門的成長策略重新定位），有機收入成長率為 0.4%。

Overall demand was steady in Q4, with some improvement relative to demand levels going into the quarter as revenue came in approximately 2 percentage-points or $70 million above what they would have been had demand held of the levels we were seeing exiting the third quarter.

第四季的整體需求保持穩定，與本季前的需求水準相比有所改善，因為收入比如果需求保持在第三季末的水平時高出約 2 個百分點或 7,000 萬美元。

In addition to outperforming our end markets, the ITW team did a solid job executing operationally, resulting in operating income of $1.03 billion, an increase of 4% despite total revenues that were down more than 1%.

除了超越我們的終端市場之外，ITW 團隊在營運方面也做得非常出色，儘管總收入下降了 1% 以上，但營業收入達到了 10.3 億美元，成長了 4%。

Record operating margin of 26.2% was an increase of 140 basis points with a 120 basis points contribution from enterprise initiatives.

營業利益率達到創紀錄的 26.2%，增加了 140 個基點，其中企業計畫貢獻了 120 個基點。

As a result of strong working capital management, primarily around inventory, free cash flow increased 10% with a conversion to net income of 133%.

由於強大的營運資本管理（主要圍繞庫存），自由現金流增加了 10%，轉化為淨收入的比率為 133%。

Looking back on 2024, the ITW team delivered another year of solid operational and financial performance, achieving record financial results, including EPS, margins and returns as we consistently outperformed underlying end markets particularly evident in segments such as Automotive OEM and Construction Products and made continued progress on our next phase key strategic priorities.

回顧 2024 年，ITW 團隊又取得了穩健的營運和財務業績，取得了創紀錄的財務業績，包括每股收益、利潤率和回報率，因為我們的表現始終優於基礎終端市場，特別是在汽車 OEM 和建築產品等領域，並在下一階段的關鍵戰略重點上繼續取得進展。

In 2025, we will build on this momentum and remain laser-focused on building above-market organic growth, fueled by customer-back innovation into a defining ITW strength, on par with our world-class financial and operational capabilities, and deliver differentiated performance in whatever environment we face.

2025 年，我們將在此勢頭的基礎上，繼續專注於實現高於市場的有機增長，以客戶為中心的創新為推動力，打造決定性的 ITW 優勢，與我們世界一流的財務和營運能力相媲美，並在任何環境中提供差異化的表現。

We still have some work ahead of us as we position the company to deliver 3%-plus CBI yield by 2030 but we are pleased with achieving 2% in 2024, more than double our historical pre-COVID levels.

我們仍有一些工作要做，因為我們的目標是到 2030 年實現 3% 以上的 CBI 收益率，但我們很高興能在 2024 年實現 2% 的收益率，這是我們新冠疫情之前歷史水平的兩倍多。

Furthermore, I'm particularly encouraged by the progress we're making and a key leading indicator of CBI yield, patent filings, which increased by 18% in 2024.

此外，我對我們所取得的進展以及 CBI 收益的一個關鍵領先指標——專利申請量感到特別鼓舞，該指標在 2024 年增長了 18%。

Turning to our guidance.

轉向我們的指導。

We are very well positioned to continue to execute at a very high level again in 2025 on both the top and bottom line.

我們已做好準備，在 2025 年繼續在營收和利潤方面保持較高的水平。

Per our usual revenue guidance approach, our organic growth projection of 1% to 3%, excluding PLS, reflects current levels of demand adjusted for seasonality.

根據我們通常的收入指導方法，我們的有機成長預測為 1% 至 3%（不包括 PLS），反映了根據季節性調整的當前需求水準。

Although there are certainly some positive signals in our businesses, the current reality is that we are not yet seeing these reflected in orders.

儘管我們的業務中確實有一些積極的信號，但目前的現實是，我們還沒有看到這些信號反映在訂單中。

Having said that, we are very well positioned to capitalize on an improving demand environment if it should materialize.

話雖如此，如果需求環境改善，我們完全有能力利用這個機會。

Our EPS guidance midpoint of $10.35 reflects the fact that we are faced with nonoperational headwinds, including a foreign currency translation impact of $0.30. Our expected operating margin improvement of 100 basis points is powered by another solid contribution from enterprise initiatives, independent of volume.

我們的每股收益預期中位數為 10.35 美元，反映了我們面臨的非營運不利因素，包括 0.30 美元的外幣折算影響。我們預計營業利潤率將提高 100 個基點，這得益於企業計畫的另一個堅實貢獻，與銷售無關。

In concluding my remarks this morning, I again want to wish to extend my sincere gratitude to our global colleagues for their unwavering dedication to serving customers and executing our strategy with excellence.

在今天早上的演講結束時，我謹再次向我們全球的同事們表示誠摯的感謝，感謝他們堅定不移地致力於服務客戶，並出色地執行我們的策略。

Now I'll turn the call over to Michael to provide more detail on the quarter and full year performance as well as our guidance for 2025.

現在，我將把電話交給邁克爾，以提供有關本季度和全年業績以及我們對 2025 年的指導的更多詳細資訊。

Michael?

麥可？

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，克里斯，大家早安。

In Q4, the ITW team delivered a solid finish operationally and financially to a record year.

第四季度，ITW 團隊在營運和財務方面取得了圓滿的成績，創下了歷史新高。

Starting with the top line.

從第一行開始。

Organic growth was down 0.5%, which included a 0.9% revenue reduction from strategic product line simplification.

有機成長下降 0.5%，其中包括策略產品線簡化導致的收入減少 0.9%。

Foreign currency translation reduced revenue by 1% and two acquisitions earlier in the year added 0.2%.

外幣折算導致收入減少 1%，而今年稍早的兩筆收購則導致收入增加 0.2%。

Total revenues was down 1.3%.

總收入下降1.3%。

Sequential revenue growth of plus 3.7% from Q3 to Q4 compared favorably to our historical sequential growth of plus 1.5%.

第四季營收季增 3.7%，與我們歷史上環比成長 1.5% 的水平相比，成長幅度較大。

On a geographic basis, organic revenue declined about 1.5% in North America.

從地理角度來看，北美地區的有機收入下降了約 1.5%。

Europe was down 3% and Asia Pacific was up 5%, with China, up 9%.

歐洲下跌 3%，亞太地區上漲 5%，其中中國上漲 9%。

On the bottom line, the ITW team continued to focus and execute well on the things within our control as evidenced by operating margin of 26.2%, an increase of 140 basis points year-over-year driven by enterprise initiatives, which contributed 120 basis points.

從底線來看，ITW 團隊繼續專注於我們能夠控制的事情並執行得當，這體現在營業利潤率為 26.2% 上，同比增長 140 個基點，其中企業計劃貢獻了 120 個基點。

Six of our seven segments expanded operating margin, driven primarily by strong execution on enterprise initiatives that contributed between 70 and 190 basis points to each segment.

我們七個部門中的六個部門擴大了營業利潤率，這主要得益於企業計劃的強勁執行，為每個部門貢獻了 70 至 190 個基點。

In summary, for Q4, we outperformed our underlying end markets with positive organic growth.

總而言之，第四季度，我們以積極的有機成長超越了基礎終端市場。

XPS achieved record margin performance with a strong contribution from enterprise initiatives and generated record free cash flow and record GAAP EPS of $2.54.

XPS 在企業計畫的大力貢獻下實現了創紀錄的利潤率，並產生了創紀錄的自由現金流和創紀錄的 GAAP EPS 2.54 美元。

Please turn to slide 4.

請翻到幻燈片 4。

Operating cash flow was $1.1 billion, and free cash flow increased 10% to a quarterly record of $1 billion with a conversion to net income of 133%.

經營現金流為11億美元，自由現金流成長10%，達到季度創紀錄的10億美元，轉化為淨收入的比率為133%。

Strong working capital management, including inventory, was a meaningful driver of the strong cash performance in Q4, with further targeted inventory reductions this year as we project free cash flow conversion of greater than 100% and for 2025.

強大的營運資本管理（包括庫存）是第四季度強勁現金表現的重要推動力，今年我們將進一步有針對性地減少庫存，因為我們預計 2025 年的自由現金流轉換率將超過 100%。

Now let's move to the segment results, starting with Automotive OEM, where organic revenue declined 2% in the fourth quarter against a tough comparison of plus-8% in Q4 '23.

現在讓我們來看看分部業績，首先是汽車 OEM，該部門第四季度有機收入下降 2%，而 23 年第四季則為 +8%。

On a regional basis, North America was down 5%, while Europe was down 10% against a tough comparison of plus-11%.

從地區來看，北美下降了 5%，歐洲下降了 10%，而同期歐洲的零售額為 11%。

China grew 8% despite a comparison of plus 31%, as our China team continues to drive customer-back innovation and gain market share, including in the rapidly growing EV market.

儘管去年同期成長了 31%，但中國市場仍成長了 8%，因為我們的中國團隊繼續推動以客戶為中心的創新並獲得市場份額，包括在快速成長的電動車市場。

For the full year, compared to industry build data, the segment outperformed relevant builds by our typical 200 to 300 basis points, and we expect similar outperformance in 2025 as we project that Automotive OEM will grow 0% to 2%, 1% to 3%, excluding PLS, with auto builds in relevant markets that are projected to be down in the low single digits.

就全年而言，與行業建造數據相比，該部門的表現也比相關建造高出 200 到 300 個基點，我們預計 2025 年的表現也將同樣出色，因為我們預測汽車 OEM 將增長 0% 至 2%，不包括 PLS 將增長 1% 至 3%，而相關市場的汽車建造預計將下降個位數。

On the bottom line, for the full year, Automotive OEM improved margins by 230 basis points to 19.6%.

從全年來看，汽車 OEM 利潤率提高了 230 個基點，達到 19.6%。

And the segment remains firmly on track to achieve its goal of low to mid-20s operating margin over the next couple of years.

該部門仍有望在未來幾年內實現 20% 至 25% 左右的營業利潤率目標。

Turning to slide 5.

翻到幻燈片 5。

Food Equipment delivered organic growth of almost 3.5% as equipment grew 3% and service grew 5%.

食品設備實現了近 3.5% 的有機成長，其中設備成長了 3%，服務成長了 5%。

As the growth investments made in the first half of 2024 to expand capacity and support long-term above-market growth in this very attractive service business are paying off.

隨著 2024 年上半年為擴大產能和支持這項極具吸引力的服務業務長期高於市場的成長而進行的成長投資獲得回報。

By region, North America grew 2%, with institutional end markets up in the high single digits and restaurants essentially flat.

按地區劃分，北美成長了 2%，其中機構終端市場成長了高個位數，而餐廳市場基本上持平。

Our international business was strong with growth of 5%, with Europe up 4%, and Asia Pacific was up 11% due to strong equipment sales.

我們的國際業務表現強勁，成長了 5%，其中歐洲成長了 4%，亞太地區由於設備銷售強勁成長了 11%。

Test & Measurement and Electronics' organic revenue turned positive for the first time in five quarters, up 2% with Test & Measurement essentially flat as electronics grew 6%, the highest growth rate since the fourth quarter of 2022 as semiconductor and electronics activity started to pick up.

測試與測量和電子產品的有機收入五個季度以來首次轉為正值，增長 2%，其中測試與測量基本持平，電子產品增長 6%，這是自 2022 年第四季度以來的最高增長率，因為半導體和電子活動開始回暖。

As we have talked about before, because of our focused growth investments, including customer-back innovation through the cycle, we remain very well positioned to capitalize on a long list of attractive growth opportunities in the semi electronics recovery begins to take shape.

正如我們之前所談到的，由於我們重點關注的成長投資，包括整個週期內以客戶為中心的創新，我們仍然處於非常有利的位置，可以在半導體復甦開始形成時利用一系列具有吸引力的成長機會。

Operating margins expanded by 170 basis points in the quarter to 27%.

本季營業利益率擴大了 170 個基點，達到 27%。

Moving on to slide 6.

轉到投影片 6。

Organic growth in Welding improved as organic revenue was essentially flat after five subsequent quarters of year-over-year declines.

焊接業務的有機成長有所改善，因為在連續五個季度同比下滑之後，有機收入基本上持平。

Equipment was flat and consumables were down 1%.

設備價格持平，消耗品價格下降 1%。

While North America was down 2%, international grew 9% with strong growth in China as a result of some very targeted customer-back innovation efforts.

雖然北美市場下降了 2%，但國際市場卻成長了 9%，其中中國市場成長強勁，這得益於一些非常有針對性的以客戶為中心的創新措施。

Throughout 2024, the Welding team continued to benefit from a strong pipeline of new products, which contributed more than 3% to growth.

在整個 2024 年，焊接團隊繼續受益於強大的新產品線，這對成長的貢獻率超過 3%。

In our view, this is a great example of how our strategic CBI efforts and the adoption of our next phase CBI Framework gives our divisions the ability to gain share and outgrow end markets on a consistent basis.

我們認為，這是一個很好的例子，說明我們的策略性 CBI 努力以及下一階段 CBI 框架的採用如何使我們的部門能夠持續獲得份額並超越終端市場。

Operating margin of 31.2% was a 160 basis point improvement over the prior year.

營業利益率為31.2%，較上年提高160個基點。

Polymers & Fluids.

聚合物和流體。

Organic revenue grew 1% with Polymers up 5% and Fluids up 1%.

有機收入成長 1%，其中聚合物成長 5%，流體成長 1%。

Automotive aftermarket, which tends to be more correlated to consumer discretionary spending, was down 1%, which is about 2 points ahead of end market growth with relevant point-of-sale data indicating a market that was down 3%.

汽車售後市場往往與消費者可自由支配的支出更為相關，該市場下降了 1%，比終端市場增長高出約 2 個百分點，相關銷售點數據顯示終端市場下降了 3%。

On a geographic basis, North America declined 4%, and international grew 8% with Europe again showing solid demand.

從地理來看，北美下降了 4%，國際成長了 8%，歐洲再次表現出強勁的需求。

Turning to slide 7.

翻到第 7 張投影片。

In our most interest rate sensitive segment, Construction Products, organic growth was down 4% in a tough market as new housing starts were down about 7% globally in Q4.

在我們最受利率敏感的建築產品領域，由於第四季全球新屋開工量下降約 7%，嚴峻的市場環境導致有機成長率下降 4%。

In North America, Construction Products was down 4%, approximately 3 points ahead of a market that was down about 7%, with residential renovation down 3% and commercial construction down 9%.

在北美，建築產品下跌 4%，比下跌約 7% 的市場高出約 3 個百分點，其中住宅裝修下跌 3%，商業建築下跌 9%。

Europe was down 3% and Australia, New Zealand was down 8%.

歐洲下跌 3%，澳洲、紐西蘭下跌 8%。

The 2025 outlook for the construction market globally remains uncertain with new housing starts in the US expected to be down in the low to mid-single digits.

2025 年全球建築市場的前景仍不明朗，預計美國新屋開工數量將下降至中個位數。

With that backdrop, we expect Construction Products to be about flat in 2025 as we're well positioned to outperform end markets with the launch of new products and market share gains.

在這樣的背景下，我們預計建築產品在 2025 年將保持持平，因為我們有能力透過推出新產品和增加市場份額來超越終端市場。

Operating margin of 28% improved 110 basis points with another significant contribution from strong execution on enterprise initiatives.

營業利益率為 28%，提高了 110 個基點，而企業計畫的強力執行也做出了重要貢獻。

As expected, Specialty Products, organic revenue was down 4% with a planned 5% reduction in revenue from strategic PLS as the team continued to take the necessary actions to strategically reposition this segment for consistent above-market growth.

正如預期的那樣，特種產品業務的有機收入下降了 4%，戰略 PLS 收入計劃減少 5%，因為團隊繼續採取必要的措施，對這一部門進行戰略性重新定位，以實現持續高於市場的增長。

While the work is not complete, the progress so far has been encouraging with 2024 organic growth of more than 3% and margin improvement of 380 basis points, which gives you a sense of the strategic and financial value we derive from PLS.

雖然這項工作尚未完成，但迄今為止的進展令人鼓舞，2024 年有機成長率超過 3%，利潤率提高 380 個基點，這讓您感受到我們從 PLS 中獲得的策略和財務價值。

Operating margin was a record 28.4% for the quarter.

本季營業利益率達到創紀錄的28.4%。

Moving to slide 8 and full year 2024 results.

轉到第 8 張投影片和 2024 年全年業績。

As you've seen from ITW all year, our colleagues around the world continue to execute at a high level for our customers and for the enterprise.

正如您全年在 ITW 所看到的，我們在世界各地的同事繼續為我們的客戶和企業提供高水準的服務。

As a result of their efforts, ITW consistently outperformed end markets and delivered record results on key performance metrics, such as earnings, operating margin and after-tax return on capital.

由於他們的努力，ITW 的表現始終優於終端市場，並在收益、營業利潤率和稅後資本回報率等關鍵績效指標上取得了創紀錄的成績。

Throughout 2024, we remained focused on maximizing our growth and performance over the long term as we invested in projects that accelerate above-market organic growth and sustained productivity in our highly profitable core businesses.

在整個 2024 年，我們始終專注於長期最大化我們的成長和業績，因為我們投資了可加速高於市場的有機成長和維持高利潤核心業務生產力的專案。

We raised our dividend for the 61 consecutive year by 7%, and we returned more than $3.2 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

我們連續第 61 年將股利提高 7%，並以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還了超過 32 億美元。

Moving to slide 9 for an update on one of our key strategic priorities.

請前往第 9 張投影片，了解我們其中一項關鍵策略重點的最新進展。

As we've talked about before, customer-back innovation is the most impactful driver of our ability to consistently grow revenue above market.

正如我們之前談到的，以客戶為中心的創新是我們持續實現高於市場收入成長的最重要驅動力。

The CBI revenue of today fuels our ability to drive market penetration and share gains in the future.

今天的 CBI 收入增強了我們未來推動市場滲透和份額成長的能力。

And over the past few years, we've expanded our CBI revenue yield from less than 1% pre-COVID to 2% in 2024.

在過去幾年中，我們的 CBI 收入收益率從新冠疫情之前的不到 1% 擴大到 2024 年的 2%。

We're well positioned for further improvement in 2025 based on the recent launch of our next phase CBI Framework.

根據我們最近發布的下一階段 CBI 框架，我們已為 2025 年的進一步改進做好了準備。

We can feel the energy and excitement from our divisional teams as they implement the framework in their divisions.

當我們的部門團隊在各自的部門實施該框架時，我們可以感受到他們的活力和興奮。

And as Chris said, we're particularly pleased with the 18% increase in patent filings in 2024 because every one of those patents is tied to a known customer pain point and represents a high-quality growth opportunity for ITW.

正如克里斯所說，我們對 2024 年專利申請量成長 18% 感到特別高興，因為其中的每一項專利都與已知的客戶痛點相關，並代表 ITW 的高品質成長機會。

In 2025, we will continue to work on fully adopting our new CBI Framework in each one of our divisions, consistent with the pace required to deliver CBI yield of 3%-plus by 2030.

2025 年，我們將繼續致力於在各部門全面採用新的 CBI 框架，與 2030 年實現 3% 以上的 CBI 收益率所需的速度保持一致。

Let's move to slide 10 and our guidance for full year 2025.

讓我們轉到第 10 張投影片，了解我們對 2025 年全年的指導。

As you can see, ITW is once again well positioned to execute at a high level and outperform our end markets in any scenario as we aim to improve margins by approximately 100 basis points with another strong contribution from Enterprise Initiatives.

如您所見，ITW 再次處於有利位置，能夠以高水準執行並在任何情況下超越我們的終端市場，因為我們的目標是透過企業計劃的另一個強大貢獻將利潤率提高約 100 個基點。

Per our usual process, our organic growth projection of 0% to 2% and or 1% to 3%, excluding strategic PLS of 1 percentage-point, is based on current levels of demand adjusted for typical seasonality.

按照我們的通常流程，我們的有機成長預測為 0% 至 2% 和/或 1% 至 3%（不包括 1 個百分點的策略性 PLS），是基於根據典型季節性調整的當前需求水準。

Foreign currency translation at current rates represent a 3% top line headwind.

以當前匯率計算，外幣折算將帶來 3% 的營業利潤阻力。

In terms of profitability, operating margin is expected to improve by about 100 basis points to a range of 26.5% to 27.5%, which includes approximately a 100 basis points contribution from projects related to enterprise initiatives that are independent of volume and range from 60 to 170 basis points in each segment.

在獲利能力方面，預計營業利潤率將提高約 100 個基點，至 26.5% 至 27.5% 之間，其中包括來自與業務量無關的企業計劃相關項目的約 100 個基點貢獻，每個部門的貢獻範圍為 60 至 170 個基點。

We are projecting GAAP EPS in the range of $10.15 to $10.55, which includes a longer list than usual of nonoperational headwinds, including $0.30 of unfavorable foreign currency translation impact, and $0.15 to $0.20 from increased restructuring expenses tied to ongoing 80/20 front-to-back projects and higher income tax expense with an expected tax rate in the range of 24% to 24.5%.

我們預計 GAAP EPS 在 10.15 美元到 10.55 美元之間，其中包括比平常更長的非營運不利因素，包括 0.30 美元的不利外幣折算影響，以及 0.15 美元到 0.20 美元的重組費用增加（與正在進行的 80/20 前後項目相關）和更高的所得稅稅率（預期 24% 到項目相關）和更高的所得稅率（預期項目 24% 到項目相關）和更高的所得稅率（預期項目 24% 到項目相關）和更高的所得稅率（預期項目 24% 到項目相關）和更高的所得稅率（預期項目 24% 到項目相關）和更高的所得稅率（預期項目 24% 到 24%）。

Excluding the $0.30 of nonoperational headwind from foreign currency, EPS would be $10.65 at the midpoint, an increase of 5% versus last year.

排除外幣帶來的 0.30 美元非經營性不利因素，每股收益中位數為 10.65 美元，較去年同期成長 5%。

In terms of cadence for the year, we expect a first half second half EPS split of about 47% and 53% as compared to our usual 49%-51%, which is due to increased restructuring expenses in the first half of the year.

就年度節奏而言，我們預計上半年和下半年的每股盈餘比例約為 47% 和 53%，而通常的比例為 49%-51%，這是由於上半年重組費用增加所致。

Combined with the typical sequential step down in revenues, from Q4 to Q1, we therefore expect Q1 EPS to contribute about 22% of the year's EPS, slightly below our typical 23% to 24%.

結合第四季到第一季典型的營收連續下降趨勢，我們預計第一季每股收益將佔全年每股收益的 22% 左右，略低於我們典型的 23% 至 24%。

As I mentioned, we expect strong free cash flows with conversion greater than net income.

正如我所提到的，我們預期自由現金流強勁，轉換率將高於淨收入。

And for our disciplined capital allocation framework, surplus capital is allocated to an active share repurchase program as we plan to buy back 1.5 billion of our own shares in 2025.

對於我們嚴格的資本配置框架，剩餘資本被分配給積極的股票回購計劃，因為我們計劃在 2025 年回購 15 億股自己的股票。

Our guidance does not account for any pricing adjustments made in response to the implementation of tariffs.

我們的指導並未考慮因實施關稅而做出的任何價格調整。

ITW's produce where we sell strategy largely mitigates potential tariff impact, and we're comfortable that once again, we are positioned to read and react as necessary, by adjusting price in response to higher costs as a result of tariffs.

ITW 的生產地銷售策略在很大程度上減輕了潛在的關稅影響，而且我們很高興能夠再次做好準備，根據需要判斷並做出反應，透過調整價格來應對關稅導致的成本上升。

Based on our past experience, most recently in 2017, 2018 and our strong operational capabilities, we believe that the price-cost equation is manageable for ITW across a wide range of scenarios.

根據我們過去的經驗（最近的是 2017 年、2018 年）以及我們強大的營運能力，我們相信，在各種情況下，ITW 的價格成本方程式都是可控的。

Turning to our last slide, slide 11, for our 2025 organic growth projections by segment.

我們來看最後一張投影片，第 11 張，這是 2025 年各細分市場的有機成長預測。

As you can see, six of our seven segments are projecting positive organic growth based on current run rates adjusted for typical seasonality.

如您所見，根據根據典型季節性調整的當前運作率，我們的七個分部中有六個分部預計將實現正有機成長。

Every segment is well positioned to outperform their end markets again in 2025.

每個細分市場都有望在 2025 年再次超越其終端市場。

And consistent with our continuous improvement, never satisfied mindset, every segment is also projecting margin improvement with another solid contribution from enterprise initiatives.

秉承我們不斷進步、永不滿足的心態，每個部門的利潤率也都在提高，而企業措施也做出了堅實的貢獻。

In summary, our segments are heading into 2025, well positioned to execute again as they continue to outperform their underlying end markets and improve margins and profitability.

總而言之，我們的各部門正邁向 2025 年，並​​將繼續超越其底層終端市場並提高利潤率和盈利能力，從而再次佔據有利地位。

With that, Erin, I'll turn it back to you.

說完這些，艾琳，我就把話題轉回給你了。

Thank you, Michael.

謝謝你，麥可。

Tamika, please open the line for questions.

塔米卡，請打開熱線來回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies.

（操作員指示） Stephen Volkmann，傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

A couple of things here, Michael.

這裡有幾件事，麥可。

I think you gave a range of enterprise initiative benefits on the various segments, but I was too slow to write it down.

我認為您給出了各個細分領域的一系列企業計劃優勢，但我記下來的速度太慢了。

But can you just maybe call out where the top and bottom kind of impact of enterprise initiatives on the segment level?

但您能否指出企業舉措對細分層面的頂部和底部影響？

Yes.

是的。

The largest impact, as you might expect, I think I said 190 basis points would be in our Automotive OEM segment.

正如您所預料的，最大的影響是，我認為 190 個基點將發生在我們的汽車 OEM 領域。

We've talked about the margin improvement plan there going back to Investor Day in 2023.

我們已經討論過 2023 年投資者日的利潤率改善計畫。

And so that's where the largest opportunity probably resides.

所以這可能就是最大的機會所在。

And then at the lower end, you would expect segments that are already operating at margins in the kind of low 30s, maybe something like Welding would be in that maybe 60 basis points-plus range.

然後在較低端，你會預期利潤率已經在 30% 以下的細分市場運營，可能像焊接這樣的業務利潤率會在 60 個基點以上。

So that's kind of the -- I think the important point is that every one of our segments has opportunity for further improvement in margins driven by enterprise initiatives, which I know are independent of volume, which is a great place to be going into a pretty uncertain 2025.

所以，我認為重要的一點是，我們的每個部門都有機會在企業計劃的推動下進一步提高利潤率，我知道這些計劃與銷量無關，這對於進入相當不確定的 2025 年來說是一個很好的機會。

And then maybe just bigger picture, thanks for the slide on CBI.

然後也許只是更大的圖景，感謝 CBI 的幻燈片。

That's the one I think it's toughest for us to kind of explain.

我認為這對我們來說是最難解釋的。

Wondering if there is a segment or maybe just even a couple of very specific projects that you could call out that kind of illustrate the power of CBI?

想知道是否有一個片段或甚至幾個非常具體的項目可以展示 CBI 的力量？

Yes.

是的。

So Steve, I would say that CBI is well represented across all seven segments.

所以史蒂夫，我想說 CBI 在所有七個細分市場都有很好的代表性。

Every division is working on this in a very intentional way.

每個部門都在以非常有意識的方式致力於此。

And we have a great pipeline of new products right across the company.

我們公司擁有大量新產品。

But let's call out one, where we've seen some very steady impact in 2024, Welding, obviously, we've called out on a few different calls here, as having made great progress in what has been a very different market in Welding.

但是，讓我們指出一個，我們在 2024 年看到了一些非常穩定的影響，焊接，顯然，我們在這裡提出了幾個不同的要求，因為在焊接這個非常不同的市場中取得了巨大進展。

We certainly mitigated that market condition by basically coming to a 3% innovation contribution from Welding in 2024, more to come in 2025.

我們確實緩解了這種市場狀況，到 2024 年，焊接的創新貢獻基本上達到 3%，到 2025 年還會更高。

But nice increase across the portfolio.

但整個投資組合都有了良好的成長。

The increase you see going into 2025 is broad-based and will impact every segment, but I call it Welding specifically in 2024.

您看到的 2025 年成長是廣泛的，並將影響每個領域，但我將其稱為 2024 年的焊接領域。

Scott Davis, Melius Research

戴維斯（Scott Davis），Melius Research

I'm just kind of amazed that you can increase margins in a down volume environment.

我只是有點驚訝你能夠在銷量下滑的環境下提高利潤率。

I mean it just doesn't happen very often in our world, unless you're coming off like a really big restructuring or something which is not really the case for you guys.

我的意思是，這種事情在我們的世界中並不常見，除非你們正在進行一次非常大的重組或其他對你們來說並不真實的情況。

Help us understand -- let's just take Auto as an example.

幫助我們理解——我們僅以汽車為例。

When you look at your performance in Auto is -- can you kind of parse it down to mix benefit, new product benefit, you're getting better price and margin with new products?

當您回顧您在汽車領域的表現時——您能否將其歸結為混合效益、新產品效益，以及您是否透過新產品獲得了更好的價格和利潤？

Are you more efficient with your labor or your fixed assets?

您的勞動力或固定資產效率更高嗎？

I mean, if there's any way to kind of break down how this kind of special sauce is working, I think it would be helpful?

我的意思是，如果有任何方法可以分析出這種特殊醬汁的工作原理，我認為這會很有幫助？

Yes.

是的。

So Scott, I would say in Auto specifically, and we kind of called this somewhat at Investor Day in terms of -- the main drivers of margin improvement in Auto were going to be volume recovery, obviously, we're not getting a whole lot of that at the moment.

所以斯科特，我想特別說一下汽車行業，我們在投資者日上提到過這一點——汽車行業利潤率提高的主要驅動力是銷量恢復，顯然，我們目前還沒有得到太多這樣的恢復。

But the other main components were enterprise initiatives and then higher margin on CBI.

但其他主要因素是企業計劃以及 CBI 的更高利潤。

And that's really what's driving the margins in Auto.

這正是推動汽車產業利潤成長的真正因素。

Enterprise initiative is just kind of how we think about those.

企業主動性只是我們對此的一種思考。

And obviously, we've been delivering on those across the enterprise now for a while.

顯然，我們在整個企業範圍內已經實現這些目標已經有一段時間了。

But really -- and it continues to be an important contributor to results.

但事實上——它仍然是業績的重要貢獻者。

Really, these initiatives, which, as we called out, our independent volume are really an outcome of what we consider to be this very strong continuous improvement mindset that's very much part of ITW's DNA and really drives the visual quality of practice in areas like 80-20 front-to-back and strategic sourcing.

實際上，這些舉措，正如我們所說的，是我們的獨立舉措，實際上是我們認為的非常強大的持續改進思維的結果，這種思維是 ITW DNA 的重要組成部分，並且真正推動了 80-20 前後和戰略採購等領域實踐的視覺質量。

These are very much bottom-up initiatives driven by our talented people and our divisions at a very granular level.

這些都是由下而上的舉措，由我們的優秀人才和各部門在非常細緻的層面上推動。

Most of these projects are less than $0.5 million individually.

大多數此類項目的單獨投資金額都不足 50 萬美元。

But when you have 84 divisions, they add up to a real meaningful number here.

但是當你有 84 個部門時，它們加起來就是一個真正有意義的數字。

So we have a lot of visibility, ownership and accountability in our divisions around these initiatives.

因此，我們在這些舉措的各個部門都擁有很高的知名度、所有權和責任感。

And as the track record is indicated here, with respect to enterprise initiatives over the last 11 years, we -- our divisions are very much done what they said they would do.

正如這裡顯示的記錄，就過去 11 年的企業計劃而言，我們的部門基本上已經完成了他們所說的事情。

So we believe these are all sustainable.

因此我們相信這些都是可持續的。

On the back of this ownership and accountability, it's fundamental to our culture.

這種所有權和責任感是我們文化的基礎。

The strong continuous improvement mindset that we would say is now hardware into our divisions.

我們可以這樣說，強大的持續改進思維現在已經成為我們各部門的硬體。

And in the case of 80-20 front to back, as we -- you've heard us say on many occasions, this is something we never will be done with.

就 80-20 的前後比例而言，正如我們 — — 您曾多次聽到我們說過的，這是我們永遠不會完成的事情。

It's the gift that keeps on giving.

這是一份持續給予的禮物。

So with that, we see this contribution continuing.

因此，我們看到這種貢獻仍在繼續。

Obviously, Michael has called it out again as 100 basis points Instron 2025 but it's ultimately that's what makes us sustainable is a continuous improvement mindset that exists across all of our businesses, not just in Auto.

顯然，邁克爾再次將其稱為 100 個基點 Instron 2025，但最終，這才是讓我們可持續發展的根本，是一種存在於我們所有業務中的持續改進思維，而不僅僅是在汽車領域。

In Auto, we also have -- as we do elsewhere the whole impact, higher margin impact of CBI.

在汽車行業，我們也受到了 CBI 整體影響以及更高利潤率的影響，就像我們在其他地方受到的影響一樣。

And the other aspect that's fundamental to enterprise initiatives is PLS, which we've called out a number of times on this call, has been fundamentally valuable to us, not just from a growth standpoint in terms of clarifying where to grow, simplifying our portfolio and simplifying the allocation of resources, but also in terms of the margin pop that we get from enterprise initiatives, our own PLS and a lot of those projects have a payback of one year or less.

對企業計劃至關重要的另一個方面是 PLS，我們在這次電話會議上多次提到過這一點，它對我們來說具有根本性的價值，不僅從增長的角度來看，它明確了增長方向、簡化了我們的產品組合和簡化了資源分配，而且從我們從企業計劃中獲得的利潤率來看，我們自己的 PLS 和許多項目的回報為一年或更短。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And guys, you didn't mention M&A in your prepared remarks, and I know this stuff can be a little lumpy, but I happen to have a view that you guys can be arguably best owner for lots of different stuff because you've been successful in the past and running lots of different widget businesses.

夥計們，你們在準備好的發言中沒有提到併購，我知道這個內容可能有點模糊，但我碰巧認為，你們可以說是許多不同業務的最佳所有者，因為你們過去一直很成功，經營著許多不同的小部件業務。

And that skill seems to be transferable, I would think, but maybe I'm overstating that.

我認為這種技能似乎是可以轉移的，但也許我誇大了。

Just a little color on what's holding you back on M&A?

您能稍微解釋一下阻礙您進行併購的原因是什麼嗎？

Is it price?

是價格嗎？

Is it the opportunity set?

是機遇集嗎？

Is it I would think you'd have a fair amount of confidence in your organization that you could integrate and win with a pretty wide set, I guess, is kind of my point?

我是否認為您對您的組織有相當大的信心，相信您能夠整合並贏得相當廣泛的支持，我想，這是我的觀點？

Yes.

是的。

I think as we've outlined, basically, we remain pretty disciplined in terms of M&A, in terms of our portfolio management strategy.

我認為，正如我們所概述的，基本上，我們在併購方面、在投資組合管理策略方面仍然保持相當的紀律。

We certainly have a clear, we would say a clear and well-defined view of what fits our strategy and our financial criteria.

我們當然有一個清晰的，可以說是清晰而明確的觀點，知道什麼適合我們的策略和財務標準。

So it really is a question about finding the right opportunities.

所以這實際上是一個尋找正確機會的問題。

We're focused on high-quality acquisitions that would extend our long-term growth potential minimum 4%-plus growth at high quality and then being able to leverage the business model to improve margins.

我們專注於高品質的收購，這些收購將延長我們的長期成長潛力，至少實現 4% 以上的高品質成長，然後能夠利用商業模式來提高利潤率。

So I would say we review opportunities on an ongoing basis.

所以我想說我們會持續審查機會。

We are very selective given the organic growth potential we have in our core businesses.

鑑於我們核心業務的有機成長潛力，我們的選擇非常謹慎。

But we are pretty active in terms of reviewing opportunities.

但我們在審查機會方面非常積極。

And to the extent that we find the right opportunities then we'll be appropriately aggressive in pursuing them.

一旦我們發現了正確的機會，我們就會積極地去追求它們​​。

And I would say going back to the MTS example of an opportunity that really ticked all the boxes for us.

我想說回到 MTS 的例子，這是一個真正滿足我們所有條件的機會。

And although in two years in here, we are -- this is turning out to be a home run for us.

儘管在這裡已經兩年了，但對我們來說，這已經是一支全壘打了。

And that was largely on the basis that it really met all the characteristics that we look at.

這主要是因為它確實滿足了我們所看到的所有特徵。

But rest assured, we're pretty active.

但請放心，我們非常活躍。

We just need to find the right opportunities.

我們只是需要找到正確的機會。

Andrew Kaplowitz, Citi Group.

花旗集團的 Andrew Kaplowitz。

So Chris or Michael, I know you're forecasting your segments based on current run rates for '25.

所以克里斯或邁克爾，我知道你們是根據 25 年的當前運行率來預測你們的細分市場的。

And Chris mentioned that orders haven't picked up yet.

克里斯提到訂單還沒增加。

But I was intrigued by your commentary that your sequential growth from Q3 to Q4 was 3.7%, greater than 1.5% historical.

但我對您的評論很感興趣，您從第三季到第四季的連續成長率是 3.7%，高於 1.5% 的歷史水準。

So did you see through the end of the year, better yet through January, any pickup in sales momentum that's worth calling out?

那麼，您是否看到到年底，最好到 1 月份，銷售勢頭有任何值得關注的回升？

You did call out semi recovery is beginning within Test & Measurement.

您確實指出過，半恢復已在「測試與測量」中開始。

Do you forecast that continue?

您預測這種情況會持續下去嗎？

Is there anything else you're seeing?

您還看到了什麼嗎？

Yes, I think it's a little too early probably, Andy, to call a recovery here for sure.

是的，安迪，我認為現在就斷言經濟已經復甦可能還為時過早。

We are seeing some positive signs.

我們看到了一些積極的跡象。

We called out semi-electronics.

我們呼叫了半電子技術。

Going through the fourth quarter, we saw a pretty solid December, that we usually do.

回顧第四季度，我們看到 12 月份的業績相當穩健，這與我們往常一樣。

And so I think we don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves here at this point.

因此我認為我們現在還不想走太遠。

So we've modeled, as we always do, based on run rate.

因此，我們像往常一樣，根據運行率建立了模型。

And if -- certainly, if market conditions improve, if demand picks up in the second half, and there, I should say, there are certainly some external indicators that would suggest that, that is a possibility, we're really well positioned to take advantage of those growth opportunities.

當然，如果市場狀況改善，如果下半年需求回升，而且我應該說，肯定有一些外部指標表明這是有可能的，那麼我們就有足夠的優勢去利用這些成長機會。

And if that turns out to be the case, our 1% to 3% organic ex PLS would be on the conservative side.

如果事實確實如此，那麼我們 1% 到 3% 的有機 PLS 成長率將偏於保守。

But we don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves.

但我們不想走太遠。

We're focused on the things that we can control.

我們專注於我們能夠控制的事情。

We just talked about the margin improvement from enterprise initiatives.

我們剛剛談到了企業措施帶來的利潤率提高。

And when the inevitable recovery happens we're going to be in a great position to continue to outgrow the underlying markets.

當不可避免的復甦發生時，我們將處於有利地位，並繼續超越基礎市場。

So that's kind of how we've positioned this.

這就是我們對此的定位。

It's helpful, Michael.

這很有幫助，邁克爾。

And could you give us more color into your ability to continue to outperform in China?

您能否進一步向我們介紹一下你們在中國繼續表現出色的能力？

I mean it's been very professed, very impressive.

我的意思是，它非常公開，非常令人印象深刻。

Obviously, it's focused on China automotive.

顯然，它的重點是中國汽車。

So maybe just talk about that.

所以也許只是談論這個。

I think you already said that you expect similar levels of outperformance in '25 versus '24 in China automotive or automotive in general, but maybe talk about what you're doing?

我覺得您已經說過，您預計 2025 年中國汽車業或整個汽車行業的業績將與 2024 年相比有相似的優異表現，但能否談談您正在做什麼？

And is it really CBI that's helping you or something else?

那麼，真的是 CBI 在幫助您嗎，還是有其他原因？

Yes.

是的。

So Andy, the performance in -- our performance in China relative to automotive has been going on for quite a while.

安迪，我們在中國汽車領域的表現已經持續了相當長一段時間。

And it really speaks to the quality of the team that we've built in China, the investments we've made in China over many years.

這確實證明了我們在中國建立的團隊的品質以及我們多年來在中國的投資。

And you're right, CBI is a large part of this, particularly our growth in EV in China has been significant.

您說得對，CBI 在其中發揮了重要作用，尤其是我們在中國電動車領域的成長非常顯著。

You saw it again this year, where we outperformed builds in China by about 800 basis points.

今年你再次看到了這一點，我們的建築業績比中國高出約 800 個基點。

We expect similar performance in China next year in automotive really on the back of the resource base, the investments that we've made, the really best-in-class innovation and business model application that we see in China that's put us in a position, not just to outperform on revenues, but even from a margin standpoint, our margins in China are pretty much similar to what they are elsewhere in the world.

我們預計明年中國汽車產業也會有類似的表現，這得益於我們的資源基礎、我們所做的投資、我們在中國看到的真正一流的創新和商業模式應用，這些使我們不僅在收入上表現出色，而且從利潤率的角度來看，我們在中國的利潤率與世界其他地區的利潤率也基本相同。

So it's really a factor of the organizational capability that we build across the business model, innovation and growth in China.

因此，這實際上是我們在中國的商業模式、創新和成長中建立的組織能力的一個因素。

Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research.

傑夫‧斯普拉格 (Jeff Sprague)，垂直研究公司。

I just wanted to think about the interrelationship with PLS and CBI.

我只是想思考一下 PLS 和 CBI 之間的相互關係。

Regardless of how good your margins are, right, there's always going to be a 20 in your construct.

不管您的利潤率有多好，您的構造中總會有 20。

So should we think of CBI also just kind of constantly reloading the PLS opportunity set?

那麼我們是否應該認為 CBI 也只是不斷地重新加載 PLS 機會集？

And if that's the case, should we just kind of be thinking about it, I don't know, secular 1% headwind on PLS and definitely as the CBI benefits kind of build on the other side of that equation?

如果是這樣的話，我們是否應該考慮一下，PLS 長期面臨 1% 的逆風，而 CBI 的收益肯定會在等式的另一邊增加？

Yes.

是的。

So maybe just to refresh, I think, in terms of our philosophy and how we think about product and simplification and the value that accrues for us.

所以我認為，也許只是為了更新我們的理念以及我們對產品和簡化的看法以及由此產生的價值。

So I would say, Jeff, PLS for us is very much an essential part of the ongoing strategic review and portfolio pruning that goes on really is a critical part of the implementation of 80-20 front-to-back in all of our divisions.

因此我想說，傑夫，PLS 對我們來說是正在進行的策略審查和投資組合精簡的一個重要部分，它實際上是我們所有部門實施 80-20 前後策略的關鍵部分。

And we've got pretty much a trade and trusted methodology around this that's deeply embedded and very well understood.

並且，我們對此已經有了一套根深蒂固且易於理解的交易和值得信賴的方法。

It certainly requires discipline, but there's a lot of benefits -- that our benefit -- that our divisions get from proper PLS implementation.

這當然需要紀律，但是我們的部門可以從適當的 PLS 實施中獲得很多好處。

And even though there's a short-term kind of revenue impact here, this has always been positive for us in the long term from a growth standpoint in that PLS provides strategic clarity which ultimately will help CBI, for sure, but not just clarity, but also executing on our division's most critical customers and products.

儘管這會對短期收入產生影響，但從成長的角度來看，這對我們的長期發展始終是有利的，因為 PLS 提供了戰略清晰度，這最終肯定會對 CBI 有所幫助，但不僅僅是清晰度，而且還能執行我們部門最重要的客戶和產品。

And effective resource deployment around that, again, which all indirectly helps CBI.

並且圍繞這一點進行有效的資源部署，這也間接地幫助了 CBI。

Then from a margin improvement standpoint, of course, we get the cost savings from PLS, which ultimately are a meaningful component of the enterprise initiatives.

然後從利潤率提高的角度來看，我們當然可以從 PLS 中節省成本，這最終是企業計劃的重要組成部分。

And so I would say with PLS, there's no doubt that in a specific way that we execute PLS, it's very much an ongoing kind of value-creating activity for us in our divisions.

因此我想說，對於 PLS 來說，毫無疑問，以我們執行 PLS 的具體方式，這對我們部門來說是一種持續創造價值的活動。

And like I say, we have a lot of positive experience and expertise on this, and we saw this very much so on Specialty this year, but on our overall business on an ongoing basis.

正如我所說，我們在這方面有很多積極的經驗和專業知識，我們今年在專業業務上就看到了這一點，而且在我們的整體業務中也持續存在著這種現象。

But the clarity that comes out of PLS ultimately will be an enabler around CBI.

但 PLS 所帶來的清晰度最終將成為 CBI 的推動力。

And Jeff, if I may just add, PLS was a little higher in 2024 than kind of our normal maintenance run rate of about 0.5 point, which was entirely driven by the work that was done in Specialty Products.

傑夫，如果我可以補充一點的話，2024 年的 PLS 比我們正常維護運行率約 0.5 個百分點略高，這完全是由特種產品部門所做的工作推動的。

And I talked a little bit about the outcomes and the momentum going into 2025 in that segment.

我稍微談了一下該部分的成果和 2025 年的發展勢頭。

We're a little bit higher this year as well, a point primarily in Automotive, Construction and then more work to do in Specialty Products.

今年我們的成績也略有提高，主要在汽車、建築領域取得了一定成績，然後在特種產品領域還有更多工作要做。

I think it's too early to tell whether this is kind of a new, I think you called it, a secular kind of where now the run rate is about one point.

我認為現在判斷這是否是一種新的、我認為你稱之為長期的現象還為時過早，目前的運行率約為 1 個點。

I think it's a little too early to say.

我認為現在說這個還為時過早。

Let's get through this year and then we'll kind of see what it rolls up to next year.

讓我們度過今年，然後看看明年會發生什麼。

But I think the important thing is, as Chris said, this is an outcome of how we run these businesses.

但我認為重要的是，正如克里斯所說，這是我們經營這些業務的結果。

We're not trying to manage the PLS number because we know the strategic and financial value that we derive from doing in our businesses.

我們不會試圖管理 PLS 號碼，因為我們知道從我們的業務中獲得的策略和財務價值。

Great.

偉大的。

And then maybe just little tactical one on Auto, right, in region, for region, but even in region, right?

然後也許只是自動的小戰術，對吧，在區域內，對於區域，但即使在區域內，對吧？

US, Canada, Mexico, could be a lot of scrambling going on in the supply chain, maybe a reprieve here this week.

美國、加拿大、墨西哥的供應鏈可能會出現大量混亂，本週或許會得到緩解。

But are you seeing any like unusual change in order patterns, people trying to get in front of maybe just the expiration of this 30-day cooling off period?

但您是否看到訂單模式出現了任何不尋常的變化，人們可能只是想趕在 30 天的冷靜期結束前下單？

Just any other kind of tariff-related noise that you might be seeing would be interesting?

您可能看到的任何其他與關稅相關的噪音都會很有趣嗎？

Yes, Jeff, to be honest, I would say it's too early to tell.

是的，傑夫，說實話，我認為現在說還為時過早。

I mean, obviously, it's been a pretty choppy week on the tariff front.

我的意思是，顯然，從關稅方面來看，這一周相當動盪。

But look, all I would say is that we're really well positioned here to read and react to whatever comes along, and we're confident that this is not really affect EPS for us this year.

但是，我想說的是，我們確實已經做好準備，可以解讀和應對任何可能發生的情況，我們有信心，這不會真正影響我們今年的每股盈餘。

Right.

正確的。

And we have assets in all these geographies.

我們在所有這些地區都有資產。

We're uniquely positioned to take care of customers, and that's going to be our priority as we manage through this.

我們擁有獨特的優勢來服務客戶，這也是我們解決這個問題時的首要任務。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

傑米庫克（Jamie Cook），Truist Securities。

I guess just two questions.

我想只有兩個問題。

One, just back on Auto, again, another question.

第一，回到 Auto，又一個問題。

Just obviously, Auto has been a great content story for you.

顯然，《汽車》對您來說是一個很棒的內容故事。

If we shift back more to ICE versus EV, just wondering what the potential headwind could be for the Auto business given it's just been such a great growth driver?

如果我們更多地轉向 ICE 與 EV，那麼考慮到汽車業務一直是如此巨大的成長動力，汽車業務可能面臨的潛在阻力是什麼？

And then my second question, Chris, to you.

克里斯，這是我的第二個問題，問你。

Obviously, under you CBI seems to be I don't want to say more important, but it's definitely getting more press or you're talking about it more, I would say, relative to your predecessors.

顯然，在您的領導下，CBI 似乎變得更為重要，但我想說，相對於您的前任而言，它肯定會得到更多的關注，或者您談論得更多。

But just trying to think about the 30%-plus margin target.

但只是試著想想 30% 以上的利潤目標。

We do get some criticism that, that might be too high or maybe it gets pushed out as we're focused on CBI.

我們確實受到了一些批評，認為這個數字可能太高，或者由於我們專注於 CBI，這個數字可能會被推遲。

So just anything you can say about your confidence level there?

那麼您能說一下您的信心程度嗎？

And is it just a function of volumes or anything you want to say on that target?

這僅僅是體積的函數嗎，或者您想針對該目標說些什麼？

Yes.

是的。

So let me start with the CBI and margin impact first, Jamie, if I could.

因此，如果可以的話，我首先從 CBI 和利潤影響開始，傑米。

We would say that actually CBI is likely to be an enabler on margins because ordinarily, when we invent differentiated new products, margins tend to be higher.

我們會說，實際上 CBI 可能會成為利潤率的推動因素，因為通常當我們發明差異化的新產品時，利潤率往往會更高。

And with respect to the whole organic growth versus margin question, which I think you're posing, from our perspective, organic growth and margin go hand in hand.

關於您提出的整個有機成長與利潤率的問題，我認為，從我們的角度來看，有機成長和利潤率是相輔相成的。

And I would even say that historically, our fastest-growing businesses have often been our highest margin businesses.

我甚至可以說，從歷史上看，我們成長最快的業務往往也是利潤率最高的業務。

And I think we also demonstrated coming out of the pandemic, where we had both healthy growth and margin expansion.

我認為，我們也證明了，我們已經走出了疫情，實現了健康的成長，利潤率也擴大了。

While over that period, we were investing in a very focused way in resources like innovation and strategic marketing to position us to grow at 4%-plus in the long term.

在此期間，我們非常集中地投資於創新和策略行銷等資源，以實現長期 4% 以上的成長。

So for us, I mean, it really comes down to, as we often talk about in ITW, the quality of organic growth.

所以對我們來說，我的意思是，這實際上歸結為有機成長的質量，正如我們在 ITW 中經常談論的那樣。

The fact that we can deliver organic growth at these high incrementals, which is really a natural outcome of applying our business model to this high-quality portfolio of businesses.

事實上，我們能夠在如此高的增量下實現有機成長，這實際上是將我們的商業模式應用於這個高品質業務組合的自然結果。

So the math is pretty simple.

因此數學很簡單。

Given our margin is 26%, with growth at 35%-plus incrementals, then we expand margin.

鑑於我們的利潤率為 26%，成長率為 35% 以上，那麼我們就會擴大利潤率。

And in fact, the path to 30%, as we have pointed out, is much more paved with operating leverage than structural cost reduction.

事實上，正如我們所指出的，實現 30% 的路徑更依賴經營槓桿而非結構性成本削減。

And this is why effectively, that's our primary role to 30% in 2030.

這就是為什麼實際上這是我們在 2030 年實現 30% 目標的主要任務。

Given the high levels of differentiation in our portfolio, we have very healthy gross margins.

鑑於我們的產品組合具有高度的差異化，我們的毛利率非常可觀。

This provides more than enough investment firepower to appropriately invest in our businesses to help drive CBI and growth, while still delivering very healthy incremental margins.

這提供了足夠的投資實力，可以適當投資於我們的業務，以幫助推動 CBI 和成長，同時仍提供非常健康的增量利潤率。

And on the back of that, of course, continued expansion in operating margins.

在此基礎上，當然，營業利潤率也持續擴大。

And then I think, Jamie, you asked about kind of the transition -- the pace of the transition from ICE to EV.

然後我想，傑米，你問的是轉變——從 ICE 到 EV 的轉變速度。

And I think for us, at this point, our content per vehicle ICE versus EV is about the same.

我認為對我們來說，目前為止，每輛車的 ICE 和 EV 的內容大致相同。

Our margin profile is about the same.

我們的利潤狀況大致相同。

And so we are fairly agnostic to any mix in ICE versus EV at this point.

因此，我們目前對於 ICE 與 EV 的任何組合都不太確定。

Obviously, we've been, as we've talked about many times on this call, really well positioned, particularly in China, where the growth has been -- and the content per vehicle growth has been really terrific.

顯然，正如我們在這次電話會議上多次談到的那樣，我們一直處於非常有利的位置，特別是在中國，那裡的增長——每輛車的內容增長都非常驚人。

So at this point, we don't see this as a major issue for the company.

所以就目前而言，我們認為這對公司來說不是一個大問題。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

So just talking about PLS and customer-backed innovation.

所以只是談論 PLS 和客戶支援的創新。

I guess on the PLS side, how much is PLS -- how much has that been contributing to the margin expansion?

我想就 PLS 方面而言，PLS 對利潤率擴大的貢獻有多大？

Like how much did it contribute in 2024 and the expectation for 2025?

例如2024年的貢獻是多少，2025年的預期是多少？

And then your commentary on CBI is very interesting.

您對 CBI 的評論非常有趣。

I'm just curious like which segments are furthest maybe behind or in the earlier stages of implementing it?

我只是好奇，哪些部分可能在實施上落後或處於早期階段？

Yes.

是的。

So the generic answer to your question in terms of the contribution -- margin contribution PLS in the overall context of enterprise initiatives, it varies from year-to-year, Joe. But I'd say directionally, it's in the 50-50 range, I would say.

因此，就貢獻而言，對於您問題的一般性答案——在企業計劃的整體背景下，利潤貢獻 PLS 每年都有所不同，喬。但從方向來看，我想說，這個比例是在 50-50 的範圍內。

On CBI, like I said, we have broad-based kind of improvement in CBI across the portfolio.

關於 CBI，正如我所說，我們在整個投資組合中的 CBI 方面都有了廣泛的改進。

All seven segments are working on this and making improvements.

所有七個部門都在致力於此並取得改進。

If I was to call out ones that are probably further ahead, I referenced Welding already.

如果我要說出可能更進一步的東西，我已經提到了焊接。

Automotive, obviously, necessarily so given the level of disruption that we see in automotive markets right now.

顯然，鑑於目前汽車市場的混亂程度，汽車市場必然如此。

Food Equipment, obviously a very fertile space for innovation on the back of energy and water savings.

食品設備，在節能節水方面顯然有非常豐富的創新空間。

And then Test & Measurement and Electronics, another area where significant change in those end markets are on increasing stringency in innovation standards and quality control standards.

然後是測試與測量和電子，這是終端市場發生重大變化的另一個領域，其創新標準和品質控制標準日益嚴格。

Obviously, new materials being developed to require new test methods.

顯然，正在開發的新材料需要新的測試方法。

So that's another area where we've had a lot of early success, I would say.

所以我想說，這是我們早期取得許多成功的另一個領域。

But rest assured, all seven segments, we'll see an improvement in innovation contribution as we go forward.

但請放心，隨著我們不斷前進，我們將在所有七個領域看到創新貢獻的提升。

That's helpful, Chris.

這很有幫助，克里斯。

And if I could maybe just follow up with one more.

我是否可以再跟進一個問題。

I recognize you're planning to do the 1.5 billion in buyback this year.

我知道你計劃今年回購 15 億美元。

You take a look at your balance sheet right now, it's in a good position.

你現在看一下你的資產負債表，它處於良好狀態。

If you wanted to lever off another turn, it would be pretty easy for you to do a more aggressive buyback.

如果您想要再次實現轉變，那麼進行更積極的回購將非常容易。

I'm just curious, like under what scenario would you maybe consider doing maybe a little bit more aggressive buying back your shares?

我只是好奇，例如在什麼情況下您可能會考慮更積極地回購股票？

Yes, Joe. So the 1.5 billion that we've penciled in for this year is our best estimate of what the surplus capital is going to be for the company this year.

是的，喬。因此，我們今年預計的 15 億美元是我們對公司今年盈餘資本的最佳估計。

So once we've fully funded our internal investments for growth and productivity, once we've paid the dividend, any acquisitions and then what's left is allocated to share repurchases.

因此，一旦我們為成長和生產力內部投資提供了充足的資金，一旦我們支付了股息，任何收購以及剩餘的資金都將分配給股票回購。

And obviously, to the extent that the performance of the company exceeds kind of the guidance we gave you today, whether it's top line or margins or we still have opportunity on working capital, as I said in my remarks.

顯然，只要公司的業績超出我們今天給出的指引，無論是營業收入、利潤率，還是營運資本，我們仍然有機會，就像我在演講中說的那樣。

And that 1.5 billion goes higher than typically what we would do is allocate that excess surplus capital also to the share buyback program.

這 15 億美元比我們通常將超額剩餘資本分配給股票回購計畫的金額要高。

So maybe one way to think about the 1.5 billion is it's at least 1.5 billion and to the extent the company performs better than what we laid out for you today, the number could be higher than that.

因此，也許可以這樣看待 15 億，它至少是 15 億，如果公司的表現比我們今天為您列出的更好，那麼這個數字可能會更高。

I think in terms of capital structure, if I may, without getting too technical here, I think we've made some really good adjustments over the last few years in response to a higher interest rate environment.

我認為就資本結構而言，如果可以的話，不用太技術地談論，我認為我們在過去幾年中針對更高的利率環境做出了一些非常好的調整。

And I'll just point to our interest rate -- our interest expense in the fourth quarter being down year-over-year.

我只想指出我們的利率——第四季的利息支出較去年同期下降。

Our projection for 2025 is flat to maybe even down slightly despite the fact that interest rates are significantly higher.

儘管利率明顯上升，但我們對 2025 年的預測仍持平，甚至可能略有下降。

And I think if you just look at kind of what other peers are talking about, I think that would compare pretty favorably.

我認為，如果你看看其他同行正在談論什麼，你會發現它們的比較結果相當有利。

And so in terms of capital structure, we would say we're in a pretty optimal place at this point in time and do not foresee any major changes in terms of capital structure or capital allocation for that matter as we enter into 2025.

因此，就資本結構而言，我們可以說我們目前處於相當理想的狀態，並且在預計進入 2025 年時，資本結構或資本配置方面不會發生任何重大變化。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

So circling back on the tariff topic, I appreciate that it's too early to tell.

所以回到關稅話題，我知道現在下結論還太早。

But can you remind us of your exposure to direct imports from countries like Mexico and also the EU and Canada?

但是您能否提醒我們一下您從墨西哥、歐盟和加拿大等國家直接進口的情況？

The reason I asked, last time in 2018, you did provide some numbers around imports from China and how that would impact the P&L which was very helpful.

我之所以詢問，是因為上次在 2018 年，您確實提供了一些關於從中國進口的數據以及這將如何影響損益表，這非常有幫助。

So anything you're able to or willing to share now?

那麼您現在能夠或願意分享什麼嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think with all the usual caveats, I'll just -- I'll give you kind of a way to think about this, Tami.

我認為，除了所有常見的警告之外，我只是——我會給你一種思考這個問題的方法，塔米。

The combined imports from China, Canada and Mexico account for less than 10% of our domestic spend here in the US.

來自中國、加拿大和墨西哥的進口總額占美國國內消費的不到 10%。

So China, it's kind of in the mid-single digit, 5% -- 5%, 6% range.

因此，中國的成長速度處於中等個位數，即 5% 至 5%、6% 的範圍。

Canada 2%, Mexico 2%.

加拿大 2%、墨西哥 2%。

So -- and then obviously Europe, slightly different equation there.

所以 — — 顯然歐洲的情況略有不同。

But that's for those three.

但那隻是針對那三個人的。

So you add that up and do kind of back -- let's just pick China for a moment, okay?

所以你把這些加起來然後回想一下──我們暫時就選擇中國，好嗎？

So roughly $250 million of imports from China. 10% increase is $25 million, which means we have to go get price of at least $25 million and probably a little bit more than that to recover the margin impact as well.

因此從中國進口的金額約為2.5億美元。 10% 的增幅是 2,500 萬美元，這意味著我們必須獲得至少 2,500 萬美元的價格，甚至可能略高於這個數字，才能收回利潤率的影響。

So I think the -- and this is a $16 billion company.

所以我認為——這是一家價值 160 億美元的公司。

So I think that's kind of why combined with our produce where we sell strategy, our ability to read and react at the divisional level, we feel like, as we sit here today, this is a manageable equation.

所以我認為這就是為什麼結合我們的產品銷售策略、我們在部門層面的解讀和反應能力，我們覺得，當我們今天坐在這裡時，這是一個可以管理的等式。

We've got a game plan in place that will cover tariff-related material cost inflation with price actions based on some pretty positive experience doing the same thing coming out of '17, '18.

我們已經制定了應對計劃，將根據2017年和2018年的一些非常積極的經驗，採取價格行動來應對關稅相關的材料成本上漲。

And by the way, a very inflationary period coming out of COVID, given the differentiated nature of our businesses, our ability to execute and take care of customers, we feel very good about our ability to offset those tariff-related cost increases.

順便說一句，在新冠疫情爆發後的通膨時期，考慮到我們業務的差異化性質、我們的執行能力和服務客戶的能力，我們對抵消關稅相關成本上漲的能力感到非常滿意。

So pretty much in any scenario that we can think of as we sit here today, we feel like we're in a good spot.

因此，幾乎在我們今天坐在這裡所能想到的任何情況下，我們都感覺我們處於一個良好的位置。

Got it.

知道了。

So a quick follow-up.

因此請快速跟進。

Minus any tariff-related noise, what is the expectation for price-cost for this year that's embedded in the guide?

除去與關稅相關的噪音，指南中對今年的價格成本的預期是多少？

Yes.

是的。

I think, Tami, we're kind of back in kind of a normal price-cost environment.

塔米，我想我們已經回到正常的價格成本環境了。

Historically, we have offset cost increases with price on a dollar basis and also it's been slightly favorable from a margin standpoint as well.

從歷史上看，我們已經用美元價格來抵銷成本上漲，而且從利潤率的角度來看，這也是略微有利的。

So keep in mind that given our -- the performance and the value of the products and services that we offer, we're in a good position here to get price to offset any potential cost increases.

因此請記住，考慮到我們提供的產品和服務的性能和價值，我們處於有利地位，可以透過價格來抵消任何潛在的成本上漲。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just the first question around the top line sort of cadence?

也許只是圍繞著頂線節奏的第一個問題？

I understood, Michael, what you said about Q1 first half share of earnings.

邁克爾，我理解你所說的有關第一季上半年收益份額的問題。

Anything you'd call out on the sort of top line movement the year?

您對今年的營收動態有何看法？

And anything on sort of any segments we should bear in mind when looking at the slide 11 weighting?

當查看投影片 11 的權重時，我們應該記住哪些部分？

Yes.

是的。

I think, Julian, typically, I'll refer to kind of the typical seasonality.

我認為，朱利安，通常，我會參考典型的季節性。

And so what usually happens from Q4 to Q1 revenues sequentially declined by kind of 3%-ish with a little bit more of that last year in '24 and in '23.

因此，通常情況下，第四季至第一季的營收會連續下降 3% 左右，而去年 24 年和 23 年的降幅略大一些。

If that happens, that's about a little over $100 million.

如果發生這種情況，其金額將略高於 1 億美元。

That's organic growth, that's down about 1% and then foreign currency with rates, as we sit here today, adds another 3 points of pressure.

這是有機成長，下降了約 1%，而今天，外幣利率又增加了 3 個點的壓力。

So now you've got revenues kind of down in that 3% to 5% range.

所以現在你的收入下降了 3% 到 5% 的範圍。

Margins typically start out at the lower end in Q1 and kind of progress from there as we go through the year.

利潤率通常在第一季處於較低水平，然後隨著全年的推移逐漸上升。

Just like top line, by the way, goes up Q1 to Q2, Q2 to Q3 is about flat, and then there's another pick up again from Q3 to Q4.

順便說一下，就像營收從第一季到第二季呈上升趨勢，從第二季到第三季基本上持平，然後從第三季到第四季又出現回升。

And then we have these nonoperational headwinds beyond currency including somewhat higher restructuring in the first half of 2025 all related to 80-20 front-to-back projects that kind of -- these are projects less than a year payback that are feeding the enterprise savings, the margin improvement that we are putting up every quarter.

然後，除了貨幣之外，我們還面臨這些非營運方面的不利因素，包括 2025 年上半年略高的重組，所有這些都與 80-20 的前後項目有關——這些項目的回報期不到一年，它們為企業節省了開支，提高了我們每個季度的利潤率。

That will be more weighted towards the first and the second quarter, and we have a little bit of headwind on the tax rate as well in the first half.

這將更多地集中在第一季和第二季度，而且我們在上半年的稅率方面也遇到了一些阻力。

So you add all that up, just relative to Q4 EPS, $254 million revenues, probably $0.10 of EPS headwind going into Q1 and then maybe another $0.10 of headwind from the combination of higher restructuring expense and a higher tax rate.

因此，你將所有這些加起來，僅相對於第四季度的每股收益，2.54 億美元的收入，可能在第一季度會面臨 0.10 美元的每股收益阻力，然後可能還會因為更高的重組費用和更高的稅率而面臨 0.10 美元的阻力。

So that's that 22% of the full year number that we gave you for the first quarter.

這就是我們給出的第一季全年數字的 22%。

So hopefully, that's helpful.

希望這會有所幫助。

That's great.

那太棒了。

And maybe just wanted to focus perhaps on Specialty Products for a second.

也許只是想暫時關註一下特色產品。

That was one segment that definitely caught the eye, the first, call it, a few quarters of last year, seems to be normalizing somewhat on sales in the fourth quarter.

這是一個絕對引人注目的領域，去年第一季度，也就是去年第四季的銷售似乎有所正常化。

So how are we thinking about margins in Specialty for the year ahead?

那我們如何看待未來一年專業領域的利潤率呢？

There's a lot going on there with PLS and restructuring or reorganization there, it looks like?

看起來 PLS 那裡正在進行很多重組或改組？

Maybe just kind of flesh out what the plan is in Specialty?

也許只是充實一下 Specialty 的計畫？

And any more details on the year ahead there, please?

還有關於未來一年的更多詳細資訊嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So as you pointed out, Julian, very solid year on Specialty in 2024, some strength in areas like aerospace and then strong demand in areas like food and beverage packaging equipment and so on.

正如您所指出的，朱利安，2024 年將是專業領域非常穩健的一年，航空航太等領域將有一定實力，食品和飲料包裝設備等領域的需求也將強勁。

And as we called out all through the year, this is all being done at a time when we were doing some strategic portfolio repositioning for long-term growth.

正如我們全年所呼籲的那樣，這一切都是在我們為長期成長進行策略性投資組合重新定位時進行的。

And that certainly was a significant impact in Q4, as you saw, about 500 basis points.

如您所見，這無疑對第四季度產生了重大影響，約 500 個基點。

There's some carryover on this in 2025, but we expect growth in Specialty in '25 despite the PLS.

2025 年會有一些延續，但儘管有 PLS，我們預計 2025 年特種產業仍將成長。

We also expect margin improvement in Specialty in 2025.

我們也預計 2025 年特種業務的利潤率將有所提高。

And the objective here is to make this segment a 4% grower in the long term.

我們的目標是讓這個細分市場在長期內達到 4% 的成長率。

And based on 2024 performance, we're certainly well on our way to doing that.

從 2024 年的表現來看，我們肯定已經順利實現這一目標。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科（Nigel Coe），沃爾夫研究公司。

Just wanted to talk about the 90 bps of margin expansion at the midpoint.

只是想談談中間點的 90 個基點的利潤率擴張。

I know you don't provide margin guidance by segment, but if you could just make any comments in general sense on where you see the best opportunities for OMX and where perhaps those below the bar?

我知道您沒有按部門提供利潤率指導，但您是否可以就您認為 OMX 的最佳機會以及低於標準的那些機會發表一些總體評論？

And in particular, I just wanted to try and dig into the Auto margins, just given first half relatively depressed and you than rate close to 20%.

特別是，我只是想嘗試深入研究汽車利潤率，考慮到上半年相對低迷，你的利潤率接近 20%。

So just wondering what you're seeing in auto specifically?

所以只是想知道您在汽車方面具體看到了什麼？

Yes.

是的。

So, Nigel, you're right.

奈傑爾，你是對的。

We don't really give margin guidance by segment.

我們實際上並沒有提供各部門的利潤指導。

But what I can tell you is that we expect based on kind of the bottom-up projection that we received from our segments at -- time, we expect every one of our segments to improve margins in 2025.

但我可以告訴您的是，根據我們目前從各個部門收到的自下而上的預測，我們預計每個部門的利潤率都會在 2025 年提高。

And that's based on what they told us, not what Chris and I would like to see.

這是基於他們告訴我們的內容，而不是克里斯和我希望看到的內容。

And so I think, obviously, the businesses that are -- the segments that are a little further along in terms of the journey towards 30%.

因此我認為，顯然這些業務 — — 這些細分市場在實現 30% 的道路上已經走了一段比較遠的路。

So if you think about welding, I think those -- it can be a little bit more challenging because -- if you -- without getting too detailed, just look at the growth at 35%, 40% incrementals, you get less of margin improvement in Welding than you do, for example, in Automotive.

因此，如果您考慮焊接，我認為那些 - 這可能會更具挑戰性，因為 - 如果您 - 不必太詳細，只需看看 35％ 或 40％ 的增量增長，您會發現焊接的利潤率改善幅度低於例如汽車行業的利潤率改善幅度。

Now in Automotive, you're right, we're not counting on a lot of lift here from -- in fact, we're counting on a market that's down in the low single digits.

現在在汽車領域，您說得對，我們並不指望它會帶來很大的成長——事實上，我們預計市場將出現個位數的低幅下滑。

And the big driver here in 2025 is the enterprise initiatives.

2025 年的最大驅動力是企業計畫。

And so it's really -- that's what's fueling the margin improvement in that call it, 100 basis points of margin improvement in automotive in 2025.

所以這其實是推動利潤率提高的因素，到 2025 年汽車產業的利潤率將提高 100 個基點。

So we still -- we've got a lot of things that are still within our control from a margin improvement standpoint, independent of volume, that's a great place to be.

因此，從利潤率提高的角度來看，我們仍然有很多事情在我們的控制範圍內，與銷售量無關，這是一個很好的狀態。

We'd love to see some operating leverage.

我們很高興看到一些經營槓桿。

And if you just look at it as --, if we try to call out Specialty Products, a little more 3% growth and suddenly margins are up more than 300 basis points.

如果你只是把它看作——如果我們試圖調用特種產品，那麼成長率只要稍微超過 3%，利潤率就會突然上升超過 300 個基點。

And that's -- so the incrementals when this growth starts to come through, at least in the near term are going to be quite a bit higher than our kind of historical 35% to 40% incremental margins.

這就是 — — 因此，當這種成長開始實現時，增量至少在短期內將比我們歷史上 35% 到 40% 的增量利潤率高出不少。

And that's really from there.

這確實是從那裡來的。

That's where the margin improvement really accelerates.

這就是利潤率提高真正加速的地方。

So hopefully, that's helpful, Nigel.

所以希望這對你有幫助，奈傑爾。

It is, Michael.

是的，邁克爾。

Yes.

是的。

And I just want to double tick into that one restructuring -- $0.15, I think it's $55 million to $65 million of pretax investments.

我只想再次強調那一次重組——0.15 美元，我認為是 5500 萬到 6500 萬美元的稅前投資。

Just given that you don't disclose restructuring by segment, any help in terms of where you see the heaviest impacts across the portfolio?

鑑於您沒有按部門揭露重組情況，您認為哪些部分對整個投資組合的影響最大，您能提供什麼幫助嗎？

I'd rather not get into that level of detail, Nigel.

我不想深入討論這個細節，奈傑爾。

We'll call it out when we report Q1, you'll be able to see kind of -- we've got that schedule in the back of the press release that lays out the restructuring.

我們將在報告第一季時公佈這一點，您將能夠看到——我們在新聞稿後面列出了重組的時間表。

Suffice it to say that there's opportunity for further margin improvement in every one of these segments.

可以這麼說，每個細分市場的利潤率都有進一步提高的機會。

And I'd rather not get into the specifics in terms of by segment for the first half.

我不想詳細討論上半年的具體細節。

Now just to be clear, the EPS headwind on a year-over-year basis that we called out from restructuring and the tax rate was $0.15 to $0.20 per share, about half of that is tax and the other half is restructuring.

現在需要明確的是，我們從重組中了解到的每股收益同比下降以及稅率為每股 0.15 美元至 0.20 美元，其中大約一半是稅收，另一半是重組。

And 80% of that restructuring is going to -- is planned for the first half of 2025.

其中 80% 的重組計劃於 2025 年上半年完成。

So it will be a little bit of a challenging start to the year in terms of the headline numbers.

因此，從整體數字來看，今年的開局會有些挑戰。

And we'll help -- we're calling out kind of the -- those nonoperational headwinds as we go through the year.

我們將提供幫助——我們正在呼籲——在這一年中解決那些非營運方面的不利因素。

But just from a modeling standpoint, we want to make sure everybody was kind of clear on how the year might unfold.

但僅從建模的角度來看，我們希望確保每個人都清楚這一年將如何展開。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬‧奧迪亞 (Joe O’Dea)。

Michael, your comment about your position to take advantage of an inevitable recovery is encouraging.

邁克爾，你關於利用不可避免的復甦的立場的評論令人鼓舞。

Just curious, as you look at the end markets and think about kind of volumes and cycles, what you're looking at, whether it's kind of region or whether it's end market and segment, but where do you think you're going to see things get better, earliest?

只是好奇，當您觀察終端市場並思考其數量和週期時，您所關注的，無論是區域還是終端市場和細分市場，但您認為您會在哪裡看到情況最早好轉？

And any perspective from a volume standpoint in terms of how depressed some of these markets are?

從交易量角度來看，這些市場低迷到什麼程度？

Yes, Joe, I wish I could help you there.

是的，喬，我希望我能幫助你。

I mean I think my crystal ball is not any better than yours.

我的意思是，我認為我的水晶球並不比你的好。

I think the reference to taking advantage of the recovery was specific to what we're seeing in semi and electronics I think if you look at some of -- so that's one cycle that certainly for two years, has been pretty challenged.

我認為，提到利用復甦是針對我們在半導體和電子行業看到的情況，如果你看一下其中的一些情況——這是兩年內一直面臨很大挑戰的周期。

I think the same could be said for some of our CapEx-driven businesses.

我認為我們的一些資本支出驅動的業務也可能出現同樣的情況。

Test & Measurement, the Instron business, positive growth in Q4, but not the typical kind of 5%, 6%, 7% organic that you would expect in that business over the long run.

測試與測量、英斯特朗業務在第四季度實現了正增長，但並不是該業務長期內所期望的典型的 5%、6%、7% 的有機增長。

Welding, certainly encouraged that the business is now flattish in Q4 and down low single digits for the full year.

焊接業務第四季表現平緩，全年業務量僅下降個位數，無疑令人感到鼓舞。

That's the cycle.

這就是循環。

Typically, those cycles last six to eight quarters.

通常，這些週期持續六到八個季度。

And that's kind of where we're at right now.

這就是我們現在的狀況。

So the only thing I can just give you, these are just kind of anecdotal thoughts on where things go from here.

因此，我唯一能給你的是，這些只是關於事情下一步發展的一些軼事想法。

But things change quickly.

但事情很快就改變了。

This is -- we're operating at a pretty fluid and pretty dynamic demand environment with things change pretty quickly here.

這是 — — 我們處於一個相當流動和動態的需求環境中，這裡的情況變化相當快。

We, as you know, are more short-cycle oriented.

如您所知，我們更加重視短週期。

So our focus is really on how do we make sure we position ourselves for long-term above-market organic growth in these businesses continue to invest through these cycles, leveraging our financial position to do so.

因此，我們的重點實際上是如何確保我們在這些業務中實現長期高於市場的有機成長，並在這些週期中繼續投資，利用我們的財務狀況來實現這一目標。

And then when these recoveries come, we're going to be in a great spot to compete and gain share and grow with new products.

當經濟復甦到來時，我們將處於有利地位進行競爭，獲得市場份額，並透過新產品實現成長。

So that's really the focus that we're talking about.

所以這確實是我們正在討論的重點。

I appreciate that color.

我很欣賞那個顏色。

And then on tariffs and pricing and how you manage the uncertainty, the question is just how quickly you can implement pricing through the system?

然後關於關稅和定價以及如何管理不確定性，問題是您能多快透過系統實施定價？

And I'm sure that's not a one-size-fits-all kind of answer, but living in an environment where you can have such headline whiplash, kind of how you approach that and how long it takes to get pricing in response to what you would anticipate tariffs could be?

我確信這不是一個放之四海而皆準的答案，但是生活在這樣一個可能遭遇如此大衝擊的環境中，您會如何應對，以及需要多長時間才能根據您預期的關稅制定價格？

Yes.

是的。

So Joe, you're correct.

那麼喬，你是對的。

It's not really a one-size-fits-all answer because we have obviously 84 divisions and 84 different kind of circumstances and opportunity profiles around pricing.

這實際上不是一個放之四海而皆準的答案，因為我們顯然有 84 個部門和 84 種不同的定價情況和機會狀況。

But what I can assure you is that given the decentralized nature of the company, given the fact that decisions are made very close to our customers, then our nimbleness means that we are quicker to read and react more than more.

但我可以向你們保證的是，考慮到公司的分散性質，考慮到我們的決策非常貼近客戶，我們的靈活性意味著我們能夠更快地閱讀和做出反應。

So there's not a huge lag with us for that reason.

因此我們不會有太大的滯後。

There's not a whole lot of approvals that are needed to implement pricing.

實施定價並不需要大量的批准。

It's done on the ground, in the division, close to the customer relative to the circumstantial opportunity profile that the division sees.

它是在實地、在部門內根據部門所看到的環境機會概況，貼近客戶而完成的。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

Just a follow-up on short-cycle industrial names.

只是對短週期工業名稱的後續關注。

So just TM&E and Welding.

所以只有 TM&E 和焊接。

So just to confirm, we're not modeling any ramp of organic growth this year?

所以只是為了確認一下，我們今年沒有模擬任何有機成長的趨勢嗎？

And more structurally, once again, just to confirm if PMI is sustainably over 50, how fast can these businesses grow?

從結構上來說，再次確認如果 PMI 持續超過 50，這些業務能夠成長多快？

And should we think sort of high single digits as possible in a robust cyclical recovery?

我們是否應該認為在強勁的周期性復甦中，高個位數的成長是可能的？

I think, Andrew, that -- it's impossible to answer that question.

安德魯，我認為──這個問題是無法回答的。

I mean, I think we have modeled based on current levels of demand, we are not modeling a recovery in any of these end markets, including Welding and Test & Measurement.

我的意思是，我認為我們已經根據當前的需求水準建立了模型，但我們並沒有對任何終端市場的復甦進行模型預測，包括焊接和測試與測量。

If that indeed happens, we will take full advantage of the growth opportunities.

如果確實發生這種情況，我們將充分利用成長機會。

Historically coming out of cycles like this, you -- it's not uncommon to see quarterly growth rates in kind of the mid to maybe even high single digits.

從歷史上看，在走出這樣的周期時，季度成長率達到中等甚至高個位數的情況並不少見。

But every recovery, as you know, is different.

但正如你們所知，每次復甦都是不同的。

And as we'd like to say, we're not economists here, we are -- so there's no incentive for us to try to forecast where things go, just given the short cycle nature of our businesses.

正如我們想說的，我們不是經濟學家，我們是——因此，考慮到我們業務的短週期性質，我們沒有動力去預測事態的發展。

So I'm sorry, I can't help you.

所以很抱歉，我幫不了你。

No, that's a great answer.

不，這是一個很好的答案。

And just on Food Equipment, solid growth in the fourth quarter, right, 3%-plus versus decline in third quarter, guidance for 1% to 3% organic growth.

僅就食品設備而言，第四季度實現了穩健成長，成長 3% 以上，而第三季則出現下滑，預計有機成長率為 1% 至 3%。

So why would things decelerate from the fourth quarter?

那麼為什麼從第四季開始情況會放緩呢？

Are you seeing pressure anywhere?

您是否在某處感受到壓力？

No, we're not seeing pressure.

不，我們沒有看到壓力。

It's basically again based on sequential run rates over time, not just the fourth quarter.

它基本上再次基於一段時間內的連續運行率，而不僅僅是第四季度。

We are very encouraged about Food generally, I would say.

我想說，我們總體上對食物感到非常鼓舞。

We've seen this continued recovery in service, still not going back at pre-pandemic levels here.

我們看到服務業持續復甦，仍未回到疫情前的水準。

Just to refresh, we are the only major manufacturer of a captive service business, and it's a real differentiator for us.

需要提醒的是，我們是唯一一家提供專屬服務業務的大型製造商，這對我們來說是一個真正的差異化因素。

It continues to be a very fertile innovation environment in Food Equipment, as I said earlier, around things like water and energy savings.

正如我之前所說，食品設備領域的創新環境持續非常活躍，特別是在節水和節能等方面。

We see continued end market strength in areas like institutions, and then geographically, I think China and Latin America are expected to be solid geographically.

我們看到機構等領域的終端市場持續走強，從地理位置上看，我認為中國和拉丁美洲的地理位置預計將保持穩固。

But that's the kind of the view on Food Equipment.

但這就是對於食品設備的看法。

We expect a solid 2025 on the back of the sold 2024.

我們預計，在 2024 年銷售的基礎上，2025 年的業績將十分穩健。

So Andrew, I'd say we share your optimism and we'll pass that on to the team that runs the business, okay?

所以安德魯，我想說我們跟你一樣樂觀，我們會把這種樂觀傳遞給經營業務的團隊，好嗎？

And we'll see how they do this year.

我們將看看他們今年的表現如何。

But 1 to 3 further margin improvement, the service business is really performing at a good level now given the investments that we talked about.

但是利潤率將進一步提高 1 到 3，考慮到我們談到的投資，服務業務現在的表現確實很好。

And so we're really feeling good about how we're positioned going into 2025 in Food Equipment.

因此，我們對 2025 年食品設備領域的定位感到非常滿意。

Great.

偉大的。

And thank you, everyone, for your time today.

感謝大家今天的寶貴時間。

This concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for joining.

感謝您的加入。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路了。