Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

My name is Kathleen, and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫凱瑟琳，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the ITW's third-quarter earnings conference call.

此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加 ITW 第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Thank you.

謝謝。

Erin Linnihan, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

艾琳林尼漢 (Erin Linnihan)，投資者關係副總裁，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you, Kathleen.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。

Good morning, and welcome to ITW's third-quarter 2024 conference call.

早上好，歡迎參加 ITW 2024 年第三季電話會議。

Today, I'm joined by our President and CEO, Chris O'Herlihy; and Senior Vice President and CFO, Michael Larsen.

今天，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris O'Herlihy 也加入了我的行列。資深副總裁兼財務長 Michael Larsen。

During today's call, we will discuss ITW's third-quarter financial results and provide an update on our outlook for full-year 2024.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論 ITW 第三季財務業績，並提供 2024 年全年展望的最新資訊。

Slide 2 is a reminder that this presentation contains forward-looking statements.

投影片 2 提醒您，本簡報包含前瞻性陳述。

Please refer to the company's 2023 Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the SEC for more detail about important risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations.

請參閱該公司向 SEC 提交的 2023 年 10-K 表格及後續報告，以了解可能導致實際結果與我們的預期有重大差異的重要風險的更多詳細資訊。

This presentation uses certain non-GAAP measures, and a reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is contained in the press release.

本簡報使用了某些非 GAAP 衡量標準，而這些衡量標準與最直接可比較的 GAAP 衡量標準的調整結果包含在新聞稿中。

Please turn to slide 3, and it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Chris O'Herlihy.

請轉到幻燈片 3，現在我很高興將電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris O'Herlihy。

Chris?

克里斯？

Thank you, Erin, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，艾琳，大家早安。

As you saw in our press release this morning, during the third quarter, record demand environment continued to moderate across our portfolio, with further softness in the automotive and construction markets.

正如您在今天早上的新聞稿中看到的那樣，在第三季度，我們的投資組合創紀錄的需求環境繼續放緩，汽車和建築市場進一步疲軟。

Overall, third-quarter revenues came in approximately 0.5 percentage point or $25 million below what they would have been had demand held at the level we were seeing exiting the second quarter.

總體而言，如果需求保持在第二季結束時的水平，第三季的收入將比本應有的收入低約 0.5 個百分點，即 2,500 萬美元。

That said, the slowdown in Q3 was less than in Q2, where revenue came in approximately 1 percentage point or $50 million below run rate.

也就是說，第三季的放緩幅度小於第二季度，第二季度的營收比運行率低約 1 個百分點，即 5,000 萬美元。

As a result, third-quarter organic revenue declined 1%, with five segments down year over year, partially offset by growth in two segments.

因此，第三季有機收入下降 1%，其中五個細分市場較去年同期下降，但部分被兩個細分市場的成長所抵消。

This 1% revenue decline compares to our end markets, which we believe were down in the low- to mid-single digits.

與我們的終端市場相比，這 1% 的收入下降，我們認為終端市場的收入下降幅度為中低個位數。

As we have all year, the ITW team continued to successfully navigate and overcome these market challenges with strong operational execution.

正如我們全年所做的那樣，ITW 團隊憑藉強大的營運執行力繼續成功應對和克服這些市場挑戰。

Those efforts resulted in operating income of $1.05 billion with operating margin of 26.5%, which included a 130-basis-point contribution from enterprise initiatives.

這些努力帶來了 10.5 億美元的營業收入和 26.5% 的營業利潤率，其中包括來自企業計劃的 130 個基點的貢獻。

With little operating leverage, six of seven segments still increased operating margin, resulting in segment operating margin expansion of 110 basis points.

在營運槓桿率較低的情況下，七個部門中有六個部門的營運利潤率仍有所增加，導致部門營運利潤率擴大了 110 個基點。

EPS grew 4% to $2.65, excluding the gains from the divestiture that Michael will review in more detail.

每股收益成長 4%，達到 2.65 美元，不包括邁克爾將更詳細審查的剝離收益。

The continued contribution from enterprise initiatives regardless of volume speaks to the power and resilience of our business model.

無論數量多少，企業計畫的持續貢獻證明了我們業務模式的力量和彈性。

And it is notable that for the first time, three of our segments delivered third operating margin above 30% in the quarter, and we are well on our way to achieve our goal of 30% operating margins for the company by 2030.

值得注意的是，我們的三個部門在本季度首次實現了超過 30% 的營業利潤率，並且我們正在順利實現到 2030 年公司營業利潤率達到 30% 的目標。

Our continued focused execution and typical operational excellence have enabled ITW to effectively counter persistent market headwinds and achieve increased profitability where we continue to maximize -- to invest to maximize growth and performance over the long term.

我們持續專注的執行力和典型的卓越營運使 ITW 能夠有效應對持續的市場逆風，並在我們繼續最大化的情況下實現更高的盈利能力——投資以實現長期增長和業績最大化。

Consistent with our long-term commitment to return surplus capital to shareholders by an attractive and growing dividend, on August 2, we announced our 61st consecutive dividend increase, raising our dividend by 7%.

根據我們透過有吸引力且不斷增長的股息向股東返還盈餘資本的長期承諾，8 月 2 日，我們宣布連續第 61 次增加股息，將股息提高了 7%。

And year to date, we have repurchased more than $1.1 billion of our outstanding shares.

今年迄今為止，我們已回購了超過 11 億美元的已發行股票。

Today, we are raising our full-year GAAP EPS guidance by $1.33 from a range of $10.30 to $10.40 to a new range of $11.63 to $11.73 to incorporate the impact of the divestiture gain and a lower projected tax rate for the full year.

今天，我們將全年 GAAP 每股收益指引上調了 1.33 美元，從 10.30 美元至 10.40 美元上調至 11.63 美元至 11.73 美元的新區間，以納入資產剝離收益和較低的全年預計稅率的影響。

Based on current levels of demand exiting Q3, we are maintaining our previous operational guidance for revenue and organic growth to be approximately flat for the year and our operating margin to be between 26.5% and 27%.

根據第三季目前的需求水平，我們將維持先前對今年營收和有機成長的營運指導，保持大致持平，營運利潤率在 26.5% 至 27% 之間。

While the ITW team has done a commendable job managing the short-term challenges this year, perhaps more importantly, we continue to deliver solid progress on our next-phase enterprise strategy priorities.

雖然 ITW 團隊今年在應對短期挑戰方面取得了值得稱讚的工作，但也許更重要的是，我們繼續在下一階段的企業策略優先事項上取得紮實進展。

As we outlined to you a year ago, the central focus of the next phase of our enterprise strategy is to elevate high-quality organic growth and customer-backed innovation as key ITW differentiators on par with our best-in-class operational capabilities and financial performance.

正如我們一年前向您概述的那樣，我們企業策略下一階段的中心重點是提升高品質的有機成長和客戶支援的創新，將其作為ITW 的關鍵差異化因素，與我們一流的營運能力和財務能力相媲美。

This quarter, we made further progress in our journey to achieve this strategic goal.

本季度，我們在實現這一戰略目標的道路上取得了進一步進展。

We believe that customer-backed innovation, or CBI, as we call it, is the most impactful driver of our ability to consistently grow revenue above market.

我們相信，客戶支援的創新（CBI）是我們持續將收入成長到高於市場水平的最有影響力的驅動力。

In essence, the customer-back innovation revenue of today fuels the ability to drive market penetration and share gain in the future.

從本質上講，今天的客戶支援創新收入增強了未來推動市場滲透和份額成長的能力。

Over the past few years, we've made progress on expanding our revenue from CBI from less than 1% in 2017 to approximately 2% today.

在過去的幾年裡，我們在將 CBI 收入從 2017 年的不到 1% 擴大到如今的約 2% 方面取得了進展。

And at our September Leadership conference, we launched next phase CBI framework for our 84 divisions around the world.

在 9 月的領導力會議上，我們為全球 84 個部門推出了下一階段的 CBI 框架。

Just as we successfully focused the entire organization on 80/20 front-to-back over a decade ago, we are now doubling down on customer-back innovation.

正如十多年前我們成功地將整個組織集中在 80/20 從前到後一樣，我們現在正在加倍努力進行客戶後台創新。

And I, for one can feel the energy, excitement and momentum from our team as they implement this strategy at each division.

當我們的團隊在每個部門實施這項策略時，我都能感受到他們的活力、興奮和動力。

With our continued laser focus on our typical do-what-we-say execution, it is with strong conviction that I know we will build above-market organic growth, fueled by customer-back innovation into a defining ITW strength.

隨著我們持續專注於我們典型的「說到做到」的執行，我堅信，在客戶支援創新的推動下，我們將建立高於市場的有機成長，成為 ITW 的決定性優勢。

In concluding my remarks, I want to thank all of our ITW colleagues on the world for their exceptional efforts and dedication in serving our customers with excellence and driving continuous progress on our path to ITW's full potential.

在結束演講時，我要感謝世界各地的所有 ITW 同事，感謝他們在為客戶提供卓越服務以及推動我們在充分發揮 ITW 潛力的道路上不斷進步方面所做出的傑出努力和奉獻精神。

I'll now turn the call over to Michael to discuss our Q3 performance and full-year guidance in more detail.

我現在將把電話轉給邁克爾，更詳細地討論我們第三季的業績和全年指導。

Michael?

麥可？

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，克里斯，大家早安。

Starting on slide 3.

從投影片 3 開始。

As expected, the third quarter ended up looking a lot like the second quarter with continued strong operational execution in a moderating demand environment.

正如預期的那樣，第三季的表現與第二季非常相似，在需求放緩的環境下，營運執行力持續強勁。

Total revenue declined 1.6% with organic revenue down 1.4%.

總收入下降 1.6%，其中有機收入下降 1.4%。

Foreign currency translation reduced revenue by 0.4% and acquisitions increased revenue by 0.2%.

外幣折算使收入減少 0.4%，收購使收入增加 0.2%。

On a geographic basis, organic revenue declined about 3% in North America, Europe was down 0.5% and Asia Pacific was down 1% with China, essentially flat.

從地理來看，北美地區的有機收入下降了約 3%，歐洲下降了 0.5%，亞太地區下降了 1%，其中中國基本上持平。

In this environment, the ITW team continued to focus and execute well on the things that we can control, as evidenced by six of our seven segments expanding operating margin, driven primarily by enterprise initiatives that contributed between 70 and 180 basis points to each segment and 130 basis points at the enterprise level.

在這種環境下，ITW 團隊繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情並執行得很好，我們七個部門中的六個部門不斷擴大營業利潤率就證明了這一點，這主要是由企業計劃推動的，這些計劃為每個部門貢獻了70 到180 個基點，企業層面130個基點。

Third quarter operating margin was 26.5%, up 30 basis points sequentially from the second quarter and flat with the prior year due to a tough comparison.

第三季營業利潤率為 26.5%，比第二季連續成長 30 個基點，由於嚴格的比較，與去年同期持平。

As you may recall, last year's Q3 margin of 26.5% expanded 200 basis points compared to 2022 due in part to the favorable impact of a few corporate items that we discussed on the call last year, including a onetime insurance recovery.

您可能還記得，去年第三季的利潤率為26.5%，與2022 年相比擴大了200 個基點，部分原因是我們在去年的電話會議上討論的一些企業項目的有利影響，包括一次性保險恢復。

Excluding those onetime items last year and looking just at segment operating margin, which is included in the press release tables, our segment operating margin increased by 110 basis points compared to the prior year, which is more in line with our typical margin expansion on a quarterly basis.

排除去年那些一次性項目，僅查看新聞稿表格中包含的分部營業利潤率，我們的分部營業利潤率比前一年增加了 110 個基點，這更符合我們在按季度計算。

GAAP EPS of $3.91 was up 53% and included $1.26 gain from the divestiture of our noncontrolling equity interest in Wilsonart.

GAAP 每股收益為 3.91 美元，成長 53%，其中包括剝離威盛亞非控股股權帶來的 1.26 美元收益。

Excluding this gain, EPS of $2.65 was an increase of 4% year over year.

排除此收益，每股收益為 2.65 美元，年增 4%。

I wanted to spend a minute on the previously announced Wilsonart divestiture.

我想花一點時間討論先前宣布的威盛亞資產剝離事宜。

The proceeds from the transaction, net of transaction costs were approximately $395 million, which we used to reduce our commercial paper balance.

扣除交易成本後，交易收益約為 3.95 億美元，我們用這筆錢減少了商業票據餘額。

The transaction resulted in a pretax gain of $363 million and income taxes on the gain were more than offset by a discrete tax benefit of $107 million related to the utilization of capital loss carryforwards, which resulted in a favorable GAAP EPS impact of $1.26. Free cash flow was $783 million, which was 102% conversion of adjusted net income.

該交易帶來了3.63 億美元的稅前收益，而收益中的所得稅被與利用資本損失結轉相關的1.07 億美元的離散稅收優惠所抵消，從而對GAAP 每股收益產生了1.26 美元的有利影響。自由現金流為 7.83 億美元，相當於調整後淨利的 102%。

And as Chris mentioned, in the third quarter, we raised our dividend by 7% to an annualized payout of $6 per share, which marks our 61st consecutive year of increases.

正如克里斯所提到的，在第三季度，我們將股息提高了 7%，達到每股 6 美元的年化股息，這標誌著我們連續 61 年增加股息。

And as planned, we repurchased $375 million of our own shares during the quarter.

按照計劃，我們在本季度回購了價值 3.75 億美元的自己的股票。

The effective tax rate in the quarter of 14.9% was below our typical tax rate in the 24% to 25% range.

本季的有效稅率為 14.9%，低於我們 24% 至 25% 範圍內的典型稅率。

As you can see from the reconciliation in the press release, the tax rate was favorably impacted by several discrete items in the quarter, including the Wilsonart transaction.

正如您從新聞稿中的調節表中看到的那樣，稅率受到本季幾個離散項目的有利影響，包括威盛亞交易。

Excluding these discrete items, our core tax rate was 23.7%.

排除這些離散項目，我們的核心稅率為 23.7%。

So in summary, the third quarter looked a lot like the second quarter with moderating, but also stable demand and solid operating margin and profitability performance as we continue to focus and execute well on the things that we can control.

總而言之，第三季度看起來很像第二季度，需求放緩，但也穩定，營業利潤率和盈利能力表現穩定，因為我們繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情並執行得很好。

Please turn to slide 4 for a look at our year-to-date segment margin performance.

請參閱投影片 4，了解我們今年迄今的部門利潤率表現。

And as you can see from the table on the left side, six of our seven segments have expanded their already best-in-class margins year to date and three segments by more than 100 basis points.

正如您從左側表格中看到的那樣，我們的7 個細分市場中有6 個細分市場今年迄今為止已經達到了同類最佳的利潤率，其中3 個細分市場的利潤率擴大了100 個基點以上。

Food Equipment is a bit of an outlier due to the growth investments in our service business and specifically the near-term inefficiencies associated with onboarding of new service technicians to support accelerated organic growth in this business.

由於我們服務業務的投資成長，特別是與新服務技術人員的入職以支持該業務的加速有機增長相關的近期效率低下，食品設備有點異常。

This margin headwind is now largely behind the food equipment segment as evidenced by 110 basis points of margin improvement in the third quarter.

目前，這種利潤率逆風很大程度上落後於食品設備領域，第三季利潤率提高 110 個基點就證明了這一點。

Total company margin is up 180 basis points, which in fairness includes 100 basis points from the onetime LIFO adjustment in the first quarter, but still solid performance in the current environment.

公司總利潤率上升了 180 個基點，公平地說，其中包括第一季 LIFO 調整後的 100 個基點，但在當前環境下仍表現穩健。

Moving to the segments and starting with automotive OEM.

轉向細分市場，從汽車 OEM 開始。

Organic revenue declined 3% in the third quarter as industry build rates continue to come down.

由於產業建設率持續下降，第三季有機收入下降了 3%。

North America was down 6% as the D3 customer builds were down 9%.

由於 D3 客戶數量下降 9%，北美地區下降了 6%。

Europe was down 5% and China was down 2%.

歐洲下跌5%，中國下跌2%。

Compared to the automobile industry build data, the segment has outperformed builds by about 200 basis points year to date, and we expect similar outperformance in the fourth quarter.

與汽車產業的建造數據相比，今年迄今，該細分市場的表現優於建造業約 200 個基點，我們預計第四季也會有類似的表現。

The segment also delivered solid operating margin performance of 19.4%, a 50 basis points increase despite lower volume, and we expect more progress in the fourth quarter and next year as we continue to work towards our long-term goal of achieving operating margins in the low- to mid-20s by 2026 in this segment.

該部門也實現了 19.4% 的穩健營業利潤率表現，儘管銷量較低，但仍增加了 50 個基點，我們預計第四季度和明年將取得更大進展，因為我們將繼續努力實現在2026 年，該細分市場的規模將達到20 歲以下。

Turning to slide 5.

轉到投影片 5。

Organic revenue and food equipment was about flat against a tough comp of plus 6% last year as equipment was down 4% and offset by service, which grew 7%.

有機收入和食品設備收入與去年增長 6% 的艱難對比基本持平，因為設備收入下降了 4%，但被服務收入成長 7% 所抵消。

Regionally, North America was down 2% after being up 10% last year, with institutional sales about flat as health care was up mid-single digits and restaurants were down about 10%.

從地區來看，北美在去年增長 10% 後下降了 2%，機構銷售額基本持平，因為醫療保健增長了中個位數，而餐廳則下降了約 10%。

International was solid, up 3% with the service business up 8% and Europe up 4%.

國際業務表現穩健，成長 3%，其中服務業務成長 8%，歐洲成長 4%。

Operating margin improved 110 basis points due to the service margin normalizing and a solid contribution from enterprise initiatives.

由於服務利潤率正常化以及企業措施的強勁貢獻，營業利潤率提高了 110 個基點。

As we mentioned last quarter, we expect margin to continue to improve as we go through the year.

正如我們上季度提到的，我們預計今年的利潤率將繼續改善。

Test and measurement and electronics organic revenue was down only 1% after being down 3% last quarter, with stable demand in semiconductor, electronics and CapEx sensitive end markets.

測試與測量和電子產品有機收入繼上季下降 3% 後僅下降 1%，半導體、電子產品和資本支出敏感的終端市場需求穩定。

While test and measurement was down 3%, Electronics was up 1% in the quarter after being down 3% last quarter, and this marked the first quarter of positive growth in electronics since the end of 2022, and we're beginning to see increase semiconductor customer activity, suggesting that perhaps we are near the bottom for this market.

雖然測試和測量下降了3%，但電子產品在上個季度下降3% 後，本季成長了1%，這標誌著自2022 年底以來電子產品的第一個季度出現正成長，而且我們開始看到成長半導體客戶活動，顯示我們可能已接近該市場的底部。

As we've discussed before, we remain very well-positioned to capitalize on the growth opportunities in this space when the inevitable recovery does happen.

正如我們之前討論的那樣，當不可避免的復甦確實發生時，我們仍然處於有利地位，可以利用該領域的成長機會。

Operating margin expanded by 190 basis points in the quarter to 25.7%.

本季營業利益率擴大 190 個基點，達到 25.7%。

Moving on to slide 6.

繼續看投影片 6。

Weldings organic revenue declined 1%, a meaningful improvement from being down 5% in the second quarter as both equipment and consumables revenue declined 1%.

焊接部門的有機收入下降了 1%，與第二季度下降 5% 相比有了顯著改善，因為設備和耗材收入均下降了 1%。

North America revenue was down 2%, but international was up 6% with solid growth in Europe and China.

北美收入下降 2%，但國際收入成長 6%，其中歐洲和中國收入穩定成長。

As we talked about at the beginning of the year, the Welding team was planning on a solid contribution to the top line from the launch of new products, which in the third quarter resulted in a 3% plus contribution to growth.

正如我們在年初談到的那樣，Welding 團隊計劃透過新產品的推出為營收做出堅實的貢獻，第三季的成長貢獻超過 3%。

And this is just one of many examples inside the company that illustrates how continued progress on CBI, as Chris was talking about, gives our segments the ability to gain share and outgrow their end markets.

這只是公司內部的眾多例子之一，正如克里斯所說，這些例子說明了 CBI 的持續進步如何使我們的細分市場有能力獲得份額並超越其終端市場。

Operating margin of 32.3% was a third quarter record for the Welding segment.

32.3% 的營業利潤率創下了焊接業務第三季的最高紀錄。

Polymers & Fluids organic revenue grew 1% with Polymers up 10% due to international strength and Fluids was up 3%.

聚合物和流體的有機收入增加了 1%，其中聚合物由於國際實力增長了 10%，流體增長了 3%。

Automotive aftermarket, which as you know, is tied closely to consumer discretionary spending was down 3% in the quarter.

如您所知，與消費者可自由支配支出密切相關的汽車售後市場本季下降了 3%。

On a geographic basis, North America declined 5% and international grew 11%, with Europe, again showing solid demand.

從地理來看，北美下降了 5%，國際成長了 11%，其中歐洲再次表現出強勁的需求。

Turning to slide 7.

轉到投影片 7。

Organic revenue in construction products was down 9% as construction end markets took a sizable step back from the second quarter with new housing starts down 10% on an annualized basis as compared to down 6% in the second quarter.

建築產品的有機收入下降了 9%，原因是建築終端市場較第二季度大幅回落，新房開工率按年率計算下降了 10%，而第二季度則下降了 6%。

As a result, North America declined 10% with residential down 12% and commercial construction down 7%.

結果，北美下降了 10%，其中住宅下降了 12%，商業建築下降了 7%。

Europe was down 4% and Australia and New Zealand was down 11%.

歐洲下跌 4%，澳洲和紐西蘭下跌 11%。

Despite the lower volume, operating margin of [3.2%] was a record for the segment with another significant contribution from enterprise initiatives.

儘管銷量較低，但 [3.2%] 的營業利潤率創下了該細分市場的記錄，企業舉措的另一個重大貢獻。

Finally, specialty products had a solid quarter with organic revenue growth of 6%, with strength across the portfolio as both equipment and consumables were up 6%.

最後，特種產品季度表現強勁，有機收入成長 6%，整個產品組合表現強勁，設備和消耗品均成長 6%。

North America was up 8% and international grew 2%.

北美成長 8%，國際成長 2%。

The 6% growth rate for this segment included about 200 basis points of PLS or product line simplification in the quarter as we continue to make progress on repositioning some of our Specialty Products divisions for consistent above-market organic growth.

該細分市場 6% 的成長率包括本季約 200 個基點的 PLS 或產品線簡化，因為我們繼續在重新定位一些特種產品部門以實現持續高於市場的有機成長方面取得進展。

We expect about 300 basis points of PLS in the fourth quarter and that the segment will be flat to up low single digits for the full year.

我們預計第四季的 PLS 約為 300 個基點，全年該細分市場將持平至低個位數成長。

Operating margin expanded 330 basis points to 31.1%, a third quarter record for the segment with strong contributions from operating leverage and enterprise initiatives.

營運利潤率成長 330 個基點，達到 31.1%，創下該部門第三季的記錄，營運槓桿和企業計畫的強勁貢獻。

Moving to slide 8 and our updated full-year 2024 guidance.

轉到幻燈片 8 和我們更新的 2024 年全年指引。

As you've seen our year, the ITW team continues to execute at a very high level and find a way to leverage our business model and high-quality diversified business portfolio to deliver solid operational and financial results in a challenging demand environment.

正如您在今年所看到的，ITW 團隊繼續以非常高的水平執行，並找到一種方法來利用我們的業務模式和高品質的多元化業務組合，在充滿挑戰的需求環境中提供可靠的運營和財務業績。

Looking ahead at the fourth quarter, we do not expect the near-term demand environment to improve.

展望第四季度，我們預期短期需求環境不會改善。

And as usual, our guidance is based on current levels of demand, seasonally adjusted and foreign currency exchange rates.

像往常一樣，我們的指導是基於當前的需求水準、季節性調整和外幣匯率。

As a result, we're maintaining our previous projection for revenue and organic growth to be approximately flat for the year.

因此，我們維持先前對今年營收和有機成長的預測，即大致持平。

We're also maintaining our full-year operating margin guidance, which is projected to be between 26.5% and 27%, an improvement of 165 basis points at the midpoint with Enterprise Initiatives contributing more than 100 basis points.

我們也維持全年營業利潤率指引，預計在 26.5% 至 27% 之間，中間提高 165 個基點，其中企業計畫貢獻超過 100 個基點。

As you saw in the press release, we incorporated the impact of the Wilsonart divestiture gain and a lower projected effective tax rate of 21.5% for the full year into our EPS guidance as we raised GAAP EPS guidance from a range of $10.30 to $10.40 per share by $1.33 to a new range of $11.63 to $11.73 per share.

正如您在新聞稿中看到的，我們將威盛亞資產剝離收益和全年 21.5% 的較低預期有效稅率的影響納入了 EPS 指引，我們將 GAAP 每股收益指引從 10.30 美元上調至 10.40 美元。上漲1.33 美元，達到每股11.63 美元至11.73 美元的新區間。

Excluding the Wilsonart gain, the EPS range is $10.37 to $10.47 per share or $10.42 at the midpoint.

不包括威盛亞的收益，每股收益範圍為每股 10.37 美元至 10.47 美元，中間值為 10.42 美元。

So in summary, while the overall demand environment remains pretty uncertain and challenging in the near term, we remain laser-focused on leveraging ITW's unique strengths and capabilities to optimize our ability to deliver differentiated performance over the long term.

總而言之，雖然短期內整體需求環境仍然相當不確定且充滿挑戰，但我們仍然專注於利用 ITW 獨特的優勢和能力來優化我們長期提供差異化績效的能力。

And with that, Erin, I'll turn it back to you.

艾琳，我會把它還給你。

Thank you, Michael.

謝謝你，麥可。

Kathleen, will you please open the queue for questions.

凱瑟琳，請您打開提問隊列。

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

（操作員說明）Jeff Sprague，Vertical Research Partners。

I just wanted to sort of pick up sort of where you left off there, Michael, with kind of the trends into the fourth quarter.

邁克爾，我只是想從你上次停下來的地方繼續講一下第四季度的趨勢。

I don't know unless my math is wrong, I think kind of sequentially, you're looking at revenues up maybe 4% or 5% when normally they decline slightly.

我不知道，除非我的數學是錯誤的，我認為按順序，你會看到收入可能會增加 4% 或 5%，而通常收入會略有下降。

So was your exit rate in September or your early read in October, kind of better than what we saw in the quarter in aggregate?

那麼，您 9 月份的退出率或 10 月份的早期閱讀率是否比我們在本季度看到的整體情況要好一些？

Or maybe you could just clarify if I'm missing anything there.

或者也許你可以澄清一下我是否遺漏了任何內容。

Yes.

是的。

Sure, Jeff.

當然，傑夫。

So let me start by saying, we don't give quarterly guidance.

首先我要說的是，我們不提供季度指導。

And as you were trying to do, based on our year-to-date performance and our full year guidance, you can get pretty close in terms of figuring out Q4, but let me try to help out a little bit.

正如您試圖做的那樣，根據我們今年迄今為止的表現和全年指導，您可以非常接近地計算第四季度的情況，但讓我嘗試提供一些幫助。

So I'd say at a high level, Q4 looks a lot like Q3.

所以我想說，從高水準來看，第四季看起來很像第三季。

Typically, what we see from a seasonality standpoint, is a sequential improvement in revenues from Q3 to Q4 about 1 point to 1.5 points, and that's going all the way back to 2017.

通常，從季節性的角度來看，我們看到第三季到第四季的營收連續改善約 1 個百分點至 1.5 個百分點，而且這種情況可以追溯到 2017 年。

So at current run rates, typically, we're up 1 point, 1.5 points.

因此，以目前的運作率，我們通常會上漲 1 個百分點、1.5 個百分點。

We do have easier comparisons in the fourth quarter.

我們在第四季確實有更容易的比較。

And for what it's worth, there's also an extra shipping day in the quarter.

值得一提的是，該季度還有一個額外的發貨日。

So you add all that up, we get to about flat revenues on a year-over-year basis.

因此，將所有這些加起來，我們的收入同比持平。

We expect, again, our typical margin improvement of about 100 basis points on a year-over-year basis.

我們再次預計，我們的典型利潤率將比去年同期提高約 100 個基點。

So that is a slight decline from Q3 to Q4, which is kind of the typical seasonality.

因此，從第三季到第四季略有下降，這是典型的季節性。

And the main driver here remains another strong contribution from the Enterprise Initiatives.

這裡的主要推動力仍然是企業計劃的另一個強大貢獻。

And then factoring in a more kind of normal tax rate for us in that 24%, 25% range, and you get to EPS at the midpoint.

然後考慮到我們在 24%、25% 範圍內更正常的稅率，你就可以獲得每股盈餘的中點。

And I'm just doing the math, I'm not giving guidance, that's in that [251] range for the fourth quarter.

我只是在做數學計算，我沒有提供指導，這是在第四季度的 [251] 範圍內。

So I'll just add, while we're talking about the fourth quarter, we do expect a strong quarter again from a free cash flow standpoint, and we're projecting some meaningful improvement on our inventory levels in the fourth quarter, which is not easy in the current demand environment.

因此，我要補充一點，當我們談論第四季度時，從自由現金流的角度來看，我們確實預計該季度會再次強勁，並且我們預計第四季度的庫存水平將出現一些有意義的改善，即在當前的需求環境下並不容易。

So hopefully, that's helpful, Jeff.

希望這對您有所幫助，傑夫。

Yeah, that's very helpful.

是的，這非常有幫助。

And then just kind of secondarily, your business in China is not huge.

其次，你們在中國的業務並不大。

It's very important for auto though.

但這對汽車來說非常重要。

And it was just kind of interesting that China welding was solid, a lot of cross currents there.

有趣的是，中國的焊接很堅固，有許多橫流。

We had some pretty ugly China numbers out of Trane and Otis today.

今天我們從特靈和奧的斯那裡得到了一些相當醜陋的中國數據。

Those are different businesses, obviously.

顯然，這些是不同的業務。

But maybe just for Chris.

但也許只是為了克里斯。

Can you just maybe give us your bigger picture view on what's going on there and also just kind of given the importance of auto, anything in this kind of China, Europe, tariff spat around automotive influence your view or outlook at all?

您能否給我們提供您對那裡正在發生的事情的更宏觀的看法，並考慮到汽車的重要性，中國、歐洲的任何此類事件、圍繞汽車的關稅爭端都會影響您的觀點或前景嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So I think from an auto China standpoint, Jeff, I mean China builds this year on auto are expected to be up 1%.

所以我認為從中國汽車的角度來看，傑夫，我的意思是中國今年的汽車產量預計將增加 1%。

We expect to be up 8%.

我們預計將上漲 8%。

So our businesses continue to penetrate very successfully in China.

因此，我們的業務繼續非常成功地滲透到中國。

EV, obviously, is a large part of the story given the fact that China is producing about 60% of the world's EVs.

鑑於中國生產的電動車佔全球電動車的 60% 左右，顯然電動車是故事的重要組成部分。

But we're making very strong penetration gains in EV in China as evidenced by the market growth.

但正如市場成長所證明的那樣，我們在中國的電動車滲透率取得了非常強勁的成長。

In auto, in general, we expect to be up [a couple of percent] against flat bills this year -- sorry, flat versus negative down 2, or up 2%, I would say, as we have been kind of historically would expect to be on into the future.

總的來說，在汽車領域，我們預計今年的固定帳單會上漲[幾個百分點]——抱歉，固定帳單相對於負數下降 2 或上漲 2%，我想說，正如我們歷史上所預期的那樣走向未來。

And that strength has been pretty much across all three geographies: Europe, North America, but especially in China.

這種優勢幾乎遍及所有三個地區：歐洲、北美，但尤其是在中國。

So maybe just add a little bit of color, Chris.

所以也許只是添加一點顏色，克里斯。

So I think if you look at the third quarter, about flat with auto, as we said, down 2% and certainly some challenges also in Test & Measurement down single digit -- low single digits, same in food equipment.

因此，我認為，如果你看看第三季度，汽車行業基本上持平，正如我們所說，下降了2%，當然測試和測量方面也面臨一些挑戰，下降了個位數——低個位數，食品設備也是如此。

So strength in welding, which is tied to oil and gas, LNG transportation and also some strength in our specialty products appliance business.

因此，焊接方面的實力與石油和天然氣、液化天然氣運輸息息相關，我們的特種產品家電業務也有一定的優勢。

So you all add up, you get to about flat for the quarter, up 6% year to date, we think in the fourth quarter, as Chris said, we'll see a pickup on the automotive side, continued strength in welding.

所以你們加起來，這個季度的業績基本上持平，今年迄今為止增長了 6%，我們認為，正如克里斯所說，在第四季度，我們將看到汽車方面的回升，焊接領域的持續強勁。

And so Q4 should be kind of flat, maybe up low single digit and the full year up in that 5% range.

因此，第四季應該會持平，可能會出現低個位數的成長，而全年的成長則在 5% 的範圍內。

So as we sit here today, I think we feel pretty good about China.

因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我認為我們對中國感覺很好。

I know there's a lot of talk about stimulus and so forth.

我知道有很多關於刺激等問題的討論。

We haven't seen a lot of that yet.

我們還沒有看到很多這樣的情況。

So if that's still to come, that would certainly be helpful.

因此，如果這種情況仍然存在，那肯定會有所幫助。

But as we sit here today, we feel pretty good about China.

但當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們對中國感覺很好。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

傑米庫克 (Jamie Cook)，Truist 證券公司。

I got two questions.

我有兩個問題。

One, I was impressed with the specialty growth in the quarter despite headwinds from PLS.

第一，儘管 PLS 帶來了阻力，但本季專業產品的成長給我留下了深刻的印象。

And I know specialty special because there's a lot of different businesses in there.

我知道專業很特別，因為那裡有很多不同的業務。

But can you just sort of break down what you're seeing within that business, where -- what segments drove sort of the organic growth?

但你能否分解一下你在該業務中看到的情況，哪些細分市場推動了有機成長？

That would be my first question, and then I'll give you my follow-up after that.

這是我的第一個問題，然後我會給你我的後續問題。

Yes.

是的。

I think a good part of the specialty story is strength in aerospace.

我認為專業故事的一個重要部分是航空航太領域的實力。

We have 1 particular business that's focused on aerospace.

我們有一項專注於航空航天的特殊業務。

And again, we saw about 30% growth in that business this quarter.

我們再次看到本季該業務成長了約 30%。

We saw, I'd say, pockets of strong demand, I think, throughout the segment.

我想說，我們在整個細分市場看到了強勁的需求。

Areas like consumer packaging, consumer packaging equipment were also pretty strong.

消費包裝、消費包裝設備等領域也相當強勁。

And we did have some favorable comps in specialty versus last year.

與去年相比，我們在專業領域確實有一些有利的競爭。

But even with all that, we expect specialty to be up kind of low single digits for the full year.

但即便如此，我們預計全年專業業務仍將出現低個位數成長。

And it's really strengthening our conviction that on the basis of the strategic portfolio positioning we've been doing in that segment, which involved some, as we said before, some potline improving throughout the segment, which is certainly choppy, and it's creating a bit of a drag, as Michael just indicated, a couple of hundred basis points this year.

這確實增強了我們的信念，即基於我們在該細分市場中所做的策略性投資組合定位，正如我們之前所說，這涉及到整個細分市場的一些改善，這肯定是不穩定的，並且它正在創造一些正如邁克爾剛才指出的那樣，今年的拖累是幾百個基點。

But what it does -- what this is all doing is really strengthening our conviction that the objective to make specialty a 4% grower in the long term is well on track here.

但它所做的——這一切所做的一切確實增強了我們的信念，即長期使特產成為 4% 種植者的目標正在順利實現。

And everything we've seen this year gives us a strong belief that we can do that.

今年我們所看到的一切讓我們堅信我們可以做到這一點。

And I think the only thing I'd add is just, Jamie, if you look at the margin performance, you can see what happens in -- at ITW, and this is not unique to specialty, when you get a little bit of operating leverage suddenly, you're in that 31% plus range, which is certainly very encouraging and gives us, as we said earlier, a lot of conviction in our ability to get to that 30% target at the enterprise level with 3 segments this quarter above 30%, which is -- that's the first time that's happened.

我想我唯一要補充的是，傑米，如果你看看利潤率表現，你可以看到在 ITW 發生了什麼，這並不是專業領域所獨有的，當你進行一點運營時槓桿突然達到31 % 以上的範圍，這當然非常令人鼓舞，正如我們之前所說，我們對本季度透過3 個細分市場實現企業級30% 目標的能力充滿信心超過 30%，這是第一次發生。

And again, that's with very little operating leverage.

再說一次，這是在營運槓桿非常小的情況下實現的。

So that's certainly really gives pretty encouraging as we look also into next year in terms of the momentum around the margin performance of the company continues.

因此，當我們展望明年公司利潤率表現的勢頭持續時，這確實非常令人鼓舞。

That's helpful because I think it's embarrassing that the 30% plus is challenging for you guys to do.

這很有幫助，因為我認為 30% 以上對你們來說很難做到，這很尷尬。

So it's nice to see that.

所以很高興看到這一點。

I guess one more follow-up, Chris.

我想還有一個後續行動，克里斯。

You talked about market outgrowth in auto.

您談到了汽車市場的成長。

You talked about Welding from the new product introductions and even on food, the increased service effort.

您從新產品介紹甚至食品、增加的服務工作中談到了焊接。

You go through CBI and you're now -- you've been with ITW forever, but CEO for a longer period of time.

你通過了 CBI，現在你就永遠在 ITW 工作了，但擔任 CEO 的時間更長了。

Are there any businesses that you're considering are more challenged like over the longer term that you think is going to be tough to get to the organic growth targets that you have, you don't have to say which ones, but just understanding if there's any difference in how you're thinking about the portfolio relative to when you first took over.

您認為是否有任何企業面臨更大的挑戰，例如從長遠來看，您認為很難實現有機成長目標，您不必說出哪些企業，但只需了解是否與您剛接手時相比，您對投資組合的看法有什麼不同。

Not at all, Jamie, I think if we go back to Investor Day last year, we were very overt in our comments that we felt that all seven of our segments have the capability to grow 4% plus, and we certainly believe that today and even more so.

完全不是，傑米，我想如果我們回到去年的投資者日，我們在評論中非常公開，我們認為我們的所有七個部門都有能力增長 4% 以上，我們當然相信今天和更是如此。

With respect to CBI, the CBI opportunity, I think is very relevant across all seven segments.

就 CBI 而言，我認為 CBI 機會與所有七個細分市場都非常相關。

We're at different points in terms of the development around that.

我們在這方面的發展處於不同的階段。

But I think everything we've seen would indicate that all these segments have a pretty starlight innovation environment, have critical customer pain points that are there to be solved.

但我認為我們所看到的一切都表明所有這些細分市場都有一個非常出色的創新環境，有需要解決的關鍵客戶痛點。

We're certainly mobilizing the company around that in a very similar way, to the way we mobilize the company on front to back 10, 12 years ago with the same kind of capability build and investment in resources, a much higher level of leadership, kind of time and focus on CBI, we have lots of great innovation practice across the company.

當然，我們正在以非常相似的方式動員公司圍繞這一點，就像我們在 10、12 年前從前到後動員公司一樣，具有相同的能力建設和資源投資，以及更高水平的領導力，花時間並專注於CBI，我們在整個公司有很多偉大的創新實踐。

And we've now codified that into a very effective innovation framework.

我們現在已將其編入一個非常有效的創新框架。

And this is the exact same approach that we took on 80/20 front to back, which as we know, was very successful.

這與我們從前到後採用的 80/20 方法完全相同，據我們所知，這是非常成功的。

And we've seen this.

我們已經看到了這一點。

I mean this is not something that's starting today.

我的意思是這不是從今天開始的事情。

We've been working on this for a couple of years now in terms of focused investment and resources on CBI.

我們已經為此努力了幾年，在 CBI 上集中投資和資源。

And we've seen that in terms of the improvement in yield that we've seen from CBI.

我們從 CBI 的產量改善中看到了這一點。

So there's a lot of conviction here that the yield improvement from one to somewhere over two today will be north of three in due course, and we have a very clear path to doing that.

因此，這裡有很多人相信，今天的產量從 1 提高到超過 2 的水平將在適當的時候超過 3，而且我們有一個非常明確的途徑來做到這一點。

And like I said, that's going to result in improvements in every one of our segments and the ultimate journey to having every one of these segments growing at 4-plus.

就像我說的，這將導致我們每個細分市場的改進，並最終實現讓每個細分市場以 4 以上的速度成長。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

安迪‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團。

Chris, I know you've been hopeful about a turn in the measurement for much of this year.

克里斯，我知道您今年大部分時間都對測量結果的轉變抱有希望。

And did mention maybe more positive discussions with semiconductor customers and you could see electronics turn positive.

並且確實提到可能與半導體客戶進行更積極的討論，您可以看到電子產品變得積極。

So maybe you can give us a little more color on the conversations you're having, the outlook, obviously, you're always going to predict run rates.

所以也許你可以給我們更多關於你正在進行的對話的信息，以及前景，顯然，你總是會預測運行率。

But as you go into '25, do you see a better outlook for the segment?

但進入 25 年後，您是否認為該細分市場的前景會更好？

Yes.

是的。

I think based on the customer conversations that we're having, we're starting to see a bottoming particularly in semi, just to characterize semi is about 15% of test and measurement, it represents a couple of percent of ITW's revenues.

我認為根據我們正在進行的客戶對話，我們開始看到觸底，特別是半成品，僅說明半成品約佔測試和測量的 15%，它佔 ITW 收入的幾個百分點。

So just to put it in context.

所以只是將其放在上下文中。

But there's no doubt that we saw a bottoming and a slight improvement in this, I think, in the third quarter.

但毫無疑問，我認為在第三季度，我們看到了觸底並略有改善。

Electronics, similarly, have been done for quite a while significantly done earlier this year is starting to bottom there as well.

同樣，電子產品已經完成相當長一段時間了，今年早些時候的顯著完成也開始觸底。

And then I think an important kind of bellwether for us, the Instron business, which is a critical business within test and measurement, had very solid growth during the quarter.

然後我認為對我們來說一個重要的領頭羊，英斯特朗業務，它是測試和測量領域的關鍵業務，在本季度取得了非常穩健的成長。

And that's certainly encouraging as we look here for the balance of the year and on into next year.

當我們展望今年剩餘時間和明年的情況時，這無疑是令人鼓舞的。

That's helpful, Chris.

這很有幫助，克里斯。

And then, Michael, I think you mentioned, I think what you call the solid step back in construction markets in Q3.

然後，邁克爾，我想你提到過，我認為你所說的第三季建築市場的堅實後退。

Do you see any hint stabilization as you go towards the end of the year in those markets.

當你接近年底時，這些市場是否有任何穩定的跡象？

I mean, obviously, we started US cutting -- rate cutting cycle, maybe what changed in Q3 versus Q2 in your businesses that led to the step down?

我的意思是，顯然，我們開始了美國的降息週期，也許你們的業務第三季與第二季發生了什麼變化導致了降息？

I think, Andy, we're talking about our most interest rate sensitive segment.

安迪，我認為我們正在談論對利率最敏感的部分。

So I think what we're seeing here is a market that's down in the low teens I pointed in the script to kind of the housing start numbers being down 10% on an annualized basis, which kind of mirrors our business in North America, maybe we're a little bit better than that.

所以我認為我們在這裡看到的是一個在十幾歲以下的市場，我在腳本中指出房屋開工數量按年化計算下降了 10%，這可能反映了我們在北美的業務我們比那好一點點。

And then we're seeing similar type of softness in Australia and New Zealand, which is a meaningful part of our business.

然後我們在澳洲和紐西蘭看到了類似的疲軟狀態，這是我們業務的一個有意義的部分。

So I think at this point, it's really too early to point to any sign or indicators that things are getting better here.

所以我認為，現在就指出任何跡像或指標表明情況正在好轉還為時過早。

Over the long term, certainly the fact that interest rates appear to be coming down has been a leading indicator, but we've not seen anything to suggest that things are picking up in construction at this point.

從長期來看，利率似乎下降的事實無疑是一個領先指標，但我們目前還沒有看到任何跡象表明建築業正在好轉。

So -- and I'll just say, in that context, I think it's even more remarkable that the team put up margins of 30% plus here in the third quarter in an environment that's certainly pretty challenging -- and about as challenging as we see across the company at this point in the cycle.

所以- 我只想說，在這種情況下，我認為更值得注意的是，在一個肯定相當具有挑戰性的環境中，團隊在第三季度實現了30% 以上的利潤率- 並且與我們一樣具有挑戰性在周期的這一點上審視整個公司。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

塔米·扎卡里亞，摩根大通。

So my first question is on margins, very nice margin performance in the quarter.

所以我的第一個問題是關於利潤率，本季的利潤率表現非常好。

I'm curious, what was price/cost in the quarter?

我很好奇，本季的價格/成本是多少？

And more broadly, how are you thinking about enterprise initiative and related margin improvement potential in 2025.

更廣泛地說，您如何看待 2025 年的企業主動性和相關利潤率改善潛力。

It seems like almost like an endless well at this point.

在這一點上，它看起來幾乎就像一口無盡的井。

And I mean it positively.

我的意思是積極的。

So any forward-looking comments about enterprise initiatives and what you're expecting for next year would be helpful.

因此，任何有關企業計劃以及您對明年的期望的前瞻性評論都會有所幫助。

Yes.

是的。

Let me do price/cost, and then, Chris, you can add some commentary on the enterprise initiatives.

讓我來計算價格/成本，然後克里斯，您可以對企業計劃添加一些評論。

But I think at this point, Tami, as we said before, price/cost has kind of normalized.

但我認為，塔米，正如我們之前所說，價格/成本已經正常化。

This is no longer a distraction as it was back in '21, '22 and '23.

這不再是 21 年、22 年和 23 年那樣的干擾。

At this point, price dollars are ahead of cost on a dollar basis and modestly positive from a margin standpoint.

目前，以美元計算的價格高於成本，並且從利潤率的角度來看，價格略為樂觀。

Now, that -- just to be clear, it doesn't mean that costs are coming down, particularly electronics, energy in certain geographies, components that have labor content, we're also seeing it in our employee costs, health and welfare and other pockets, overhead costs, such as just point out rental, expense leases, software licenses.

現在，需要明確的是，這並不意味著成本正在下降，特別是某些地區的電子產品、能源、含有勞動力的零件，我們也在員工成本、健康和福利以及其他口袋，間接費用，例如租金、費用租賃、軟體許可證。

So we have to continue to be very diligent in this area and make sure that we get price to offset all of these pressures.

因此，我們必須繼續在這一領域非常努力，並確保我們獲得價格來抵消所有這些壓力。

But overall, nothing significant to point to on the price/cost equation.

但總體而言，價格/成本等式沒有什麼值得注意的地方。

And then maybe on the enterprise initiatives, Chris.

然後也許是關於企業計劃，克里斯。

Sure.

當然。

So Tami, as you said, enterprise initiatives continue to be an important contributor to results.

因此，塔米，正如您所說，企業舉措仍然是成果的重要貢獻者。

And how we think about both these initiatives is that these initiatives are independent of volume.

我們對這兩項措施的看法是，這些舉措與數量無關。

And they're really an outcome of the continuous improvement mindset that's very much part of ITW's DNA, I would say.

我想說，它們實際上是持續改善心態的結果，而這種心態在很大程度上是 ITW 的 DNA 的一部分。

And this is what really drives this divisional kind of quality of practice and 80/20 front to back in sourcing.

這才是真正推動這種部門實務品質和採購中 80/20 前後的原因。

And typically, very bottom-up initiatives driven by our talented people and our divisions at a very granular level.

通常，我們的人才和部門在非常細粒度的層面上推動非常自下而上的措施。

Most of these initiatives are in the couple of hundred thousand dollar range in terms of individually.

大多數這些措施的單獨成本都在幾十萬美元範圍內。

But when you have 84 divisions, these add up to a very meaningful number.

但當你有 84 個師時，這些加起來就是一個非常有意義的數字。

So the divisions have a lot of visibility, ownership and accountability on these and as the track record, as indicator over the last 11 years, our division is going to do what they say when they forecast these.

因此，各部門在這些方面擁有很大的可見性、所有權和責任感，並且根據過去 11 年的業績記錄和指標，我們的部門將按照他們預測時所說的去做。

So our confidence on enterprise initiatives going forward that this will continue really is an outcome of the strong ownership and accountability that resides in our divisions and the strong continuous improvement mindset that I refer to, that's really hardware in our divisions at this point.

因此，我們對未來企業計劃的信心將繼續下去，這實際上是我們部門強大的所有權和責任感以及我所指的強烈的持續改進心態的結果，這實際上是我們部門目前的硬體。

And in the case of 80/20, as we know, this is the gift that keeps on giving.

就 80/20 而言，正如我們所知，這是不斷給予的禮物。

So with that, we certainly see an ongoing contribution from Enterprise initiatives going forward, including in 2025.

因此，我們當然會看到企業計劃的持續貢獻，包括 2025 年。

And this is a fundamental part of how we drive differentiated execution in any environment.

這是我們在任何環境中推動差異化執行的基本組成部分。

Got it.

知道了。

That is very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And my second question is more strategic.

我的第二個問題更具戰略意義。

So there's a lot of optimism around data centers, AI, power generation, power demand, so on and so forth.

因此，人們對資料中心、人工智慧、發電、電力需求等方面持樂觀態度。

How do you assess these opportunities internally?

您在內部如何評估這些機會？

Do you see an opportunity for ITW to increase the disposure to some of these trends maybe organically or through acquisitions.

您認為 ITW 有機會透過有機方式或透過收購來增加對其中一些趨勢的了解嗎？

So how do you evaluate some of the things.

那你如何評價一些事情呢？

So I think as it relates to data center specifically, we have standard characteristics of businesses that we would pursue for acquisition based on sustainable differentiation.

因此，我認為，由於它與資料中心具體相關，我們擁有基於永續差異化收購的標準業務特徵。

So an opportunity came along that was data center related and met our normal criteria, then we'd be all in based on the characteristics of having a business that could grow above market, that we can leverage our business model and we could acquire at the right valuation.

因此，一個與資料中心相關並符合我們正常標準的機會出現了，然後我們將全力以赴，基於擁有可以超越市場成長的業務的特徵，我們可以利用我們的業務模式，並且我們可以在正確的估值。

And that applies to everything, not just data centers.

這適用於一切，而不僅僅是資料中心。

So we don't have a specific focus on data centers.

所以我們沒有特別關注資料中心。

We kind of look at all these things on an equal basis in terms of their long-term attractiveness for us.

我們在平等的基礎上看待所有這些事物對我們的長期吸引力。

Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

喬奧迪，富國銀行。

First, just wanted to ask on and kind of specific to North America, but interested in kind of CapEx versus OpEx trends.

首先，我只是想詢問北美的具體情況，但對資本支出與營運支出趨勢感興趣。

And I think appreciating a pretty quick book-and-ship model.

我認為欣賞一種相當快速的預訂和運輸模式。

I'm not sure how much you would see this.

我不確定你會看到多少。

But we do hear about inquiry activity being better than order activity out there.

但我們確實聽說詢價活動比訂單活動更好。

And so curious the degree to which -- you see some of that or hear some of that from your sales force and customer tone as you think about rates starting to come down, I think some folks are waiting for getting postelection and just the idea that you're getting a sense that there is some pent-up demand that hasn't moved forward with some uncertainty overhang and thoughts on that potentially moving forward nearer term?

當你考慮費率開始下降時，你會從銷售人員和客戶語氣中看到或聽到其中的一些內容，我想有些人正在等待選舉後的想法，所以很好奇。壓抑的需求尚未向前發展，並且存在一些不確定性，並且對近期可能向前發展的想法有什麼看法？

Well, I think, Joe, I'd start by saying, we're not economists.

好吧，我想，喬，我首先要說的是，我們不是經濟學家。

We're not trying to predict the impossible here, which is where the economy is going.

我們並不是試圖預測不可能發生的事情，這就是經濟的發展方向。

We are, as you said, much more short cycle.

正如您所說，我們的周期要短得多。

Our divisions do a great job kind of reading and reacting to what's going on in their respective end markets.

我們的部門在解讀各自終端市場的動態並做出反應方面做得非常出色。

I'll just make a broader comment based on what we saw in the third quarter, which is some stability in the more CapEx-sensitive businesses.

我將根據我們在第三季看到的情況做出更廣泛的評論，即對資本支出更敏感的業務具有一定的穩定性。

So I'll point to welding.

所以我會指出焊接。

As I mentioned, I'll point to test and measurement, including our Instron business, which was up in a meaningful way on a year-over-year basis and improve kind of quoting and order activity.

正如我所提到的，我將指出測試和測量，包括我們的 Instron 業務，該業務同比大幅增長，並改善了報價和訂單活動。

So maybe that squares with what you were talking about.

所以也許這與你所說的相符。

And then the softness in Q3 was really much more tied to construction and automotive production, specifically with our customers with the T3 customers.

第三季的疲軟實際上與建築和汽車生產有關，特別是與我們的 T3 客戶的客戶。

But certainly some stability in CapEx, and we'll see where it goes from here.

但資本支出肯定有一定的穩定性，我們將看看它的走向。

We're modeling based on current run rates.

我們根據當前運行率進行建模。

So based on what we're seeing in our businesses today, and we'll see how it all plays out as we go into 2025 and interest rates maybe would be a little helpful if they came lower, for sure.

因此，根據我們今天在業務中看到的情況，我們將看到進入 2025 年時一切將如何發展，如果利率下降，肯定會有所幫助。

I appreciate that color.

我很欣賞那種顏色。

And then just wanted to ask on CBI and we think about -- as we think about it becoming sort of a growing initiative us what it means on the R&D side and the degree to which you can keep R&D relative to sales at sort of similar levels or what you're doing there as we would think to drive more innovation, you might need to allocate a little bit more there.

然後只是想問一下 CBI，當我們考慮它成為一項不斷發展的舉措時，我們會考慮它對研發方面意味著什麼，以及你可以在多大程度上將研發相對於銷售保持在類似的水平或您在那裡所做的事情，因為我們認為要推動更多創新，您可能需要在那裡分配更多一點。

Yeah.

是的。

So for us, spend in R&D or innovation is largely an outcome of basically request more divisions. -- basically, we fund all the good projects.

因此，對我們來說，研發或創新支出很大程度上是要求更多部門的結果。 ——基本上，我們資助所有好的計畫。

We have been making -- over the last three or four years making very focused investments in areas like innovation and strategic marketing.

在過去的三、四年裡，我們一直在創新和策略行銷等領域進行非常集中的投資。

We expect that to continue, but if that number was to go up, that's not a problem for us.

我們預計這種情況會持續下去，但如果這個數字上升，這對我們來說不是問題。

It's really an come of funding all these good projects.

這確實是資助所有這些好項目的結果。

And our teams are really focused on -- there are 80 opportunities in their market, but they're key customers.

我們的團隊真正關注的是——他們的市場中有 80 個機會，但他們是關鍵客戶。

And whatever we spend in R&D typically is an outcome of that.

我們在研發上的支出通常都是其結果。

And we're very happy to spend it because it's typically money well spent on the degree of focus that our businesses have.

我們非常樂意花錢，因為這筆錢通常花在我們業務的專注程度。

Yeah.

是的。

And just from an American standpoint, I'd say, our R&D spend, the way we've defined it here over the years is about 1.8% of sales.

我想說，僅從美國的角度來看，我們的研發支出（多年來我們在這裡定義的方式）約為銷售額的 1.8%。

So as sales grow, so will the R&D dollar spend.

因此，隨著銷售額的成長，研發費用也會隨之成長。

And we don't foresee any significant change in that as we go forward.

隨著我們的前進，我們預計這方面不會有任何重大變化。

As Chris said, we really fund every project that our divisions put forward put forward, and that's important to them.

正如克里斯所說，我們確實為我們部門提出的每個項目提供資金，這對他們來說很重要。

And so that's how we approach it here, really in terms of it's an outcome of this process that Chris described.

這就是我們在這裡處理它的方式，實際上這是克里斯所描述的這個過程的結果。

Sabrina Abrams, Bank of America.

薩布麗娜·艾布拉姆斯，美國銀行。

As a follow-up to some of the CBI commentary and question, I think back at your Investor Day, the framework for CBI for segment was about 2% to 3% contribution at its most meaningful driver to reach the long-term targets.

作為一些 CBI 評論和問題的後續行動，我回想起投資者日，CBI 細分市場的框架約為 2% 至 3% 的貢獻，這是實現長期目標最有意義的驅動力。

Are you on track for that this year?

今年你能做到這一點嗎？

And I understand relevant to all 7 segments.

我了解與所有 7 個細分市場相關的內容。

But maybe if you could provide any color on which segments you think are more mature in this journey.

但也許你可以提供任何顏色，說明你認為在這段旅程中哪些部分更成熟。

Yes.

是的。

So we're very much on track to do 3% plus in line with our target by 2030, if not indeed, before that, based on the progress that we are making.

因此，根據我們目前的進展，我們很有可能在 2030 年之前實現 3% 以上的目標，即使不是確實如此。

We're at varying levels of accomplishment currently across our 7 segments.

目前，我們在 7 個細分市場中取得了不同程度的成就。

I would point to Welding as an example, this year, as we've highlighted and Michael highlighted in his commentary, our Welding business is suffering some significant end market challenges, but we're getting north of 3% contribution of CBI in welding, as we forecasted at the beginning of the year, several new product launches.

我想以焊接為例，今年，正如我們和邁克爾在他的評論中強調的那樣，我們的焊接業務正在遭受一些重大的終端市場挑戰，但我們的 CBI 在焊接領域的貢獻已超過 3%，正如我們年初預測的那樣，將推出幾款新產品。

So Welding will be on test and measurement and electronics, obviously, an area of significant attractiveness our own innovation in the context of what's going on in those markets, new materials being developed, all of which required to be tested, increasing stringency in areas like R&D and in quality control, all of which requires more and more sophisticated testing equipment, which really speaks to our competitive advantages.

因此，焊接將在測試和測量以及電子領域，顯然，這是一個對我們自己的創新具有重大吸引力的領域，在這些市場正在發生的情況下，正在開發新材料，所有這些都需要進行測試，在諸如研發和品質控制，都需要越來越精密的檢測設備，這確實說明了我們的競爭優勢。

And then the other one I'd highlight is food equipment.

我要強調的另一件事是食品設備。

Our food equipment sustainability in areas of energy savings, water savings is a very fertile innovation environment, and we've managed to leverage that for several years.

我們的食品設備在節能、節水領域的可持續性是一個非常肥沃的創新環境，多年來我們一直在努力利用這一點。

And the other one, of course, I point to is auto.

當然，我指的另一個是汽車。

Auto given the disruptive nature of auto right now, particularly with the increased penetration of electric vehicles provides enormous opportunity for innovation.

鑑於目前汽車的顛覆性，特別是隨著電動車普及率的提高，汽車提供了巨大的創新機會。

And we're capitalizing on that as evidenced by the fact that our electric vehicle penetration into electric vehicles is higher than the market average.

我們正在利用這一點，我們的電動車滲透率高於市場平均水平就證明了這一點。

So we feel pretty good about all 7 segments, but those are the 4 that I highlight right now.

所以我們對所有 7 個部分都感覺很好，但我現在重點強調的是這 4 個部分。

And it seems some of the above-average PLS and specialty products is behind us, and that business is growing nicely.

一些高於平均水平的 PLS 和特色產品似乎已經成為過去，而且業務成長良好。

You guys got rid of Wilsonart, moving past some of this portfolio rationalization, is there more appetite to do M&A given some of these divestitures are behind us?

你們擺脫了威盛亞，超越了一些投資組合合理化，鑑於其中一些資產剝離已經過去，是否有更多的興趣進行併購？

Yes.

是的。

So I would say our posture on M&A hasn't changed since we outlined this at the leadership conference.

因此，我想說，自從我們在領導層會議上概述這一點以來，我們對併購的立場就沒有改變。

We got a pretty disciplined portfolio strategy, clear -- we believe clear and well-defined view of what fits our strategy.

我們有一個非常嚴格、清晰的投資組合策略——我們相信對於什麼適合我們的策略有清晰和明確的看法。

And so it's a case of us finding the right opportunities.

所以這是我們尋找合適機會的一個例子。

And for us, we're focused on high-quality acquisitions that extend our ability to grow at a minimum 4% over the long term.

對我們來說，我們專注於高品質的收購，以提高我們長期至少成長 4% 的能力。

That's the first criteria.

這是第一個標準。

The second criteria we look at is that we're able to leverage the business model to improve margins.

我們考慮的第二個標準是我們能夠利用商業模式來提高利潤。

And then obviously acquiring the business at the right valuation to provide a decent long-term return for our shareholders.

然後顯然以正確的估值收購業務，為我們的股東提供可觀的長期回報。

We review opportunities on an ongoing basis, but we're very selective on the base of these criteria.

我們會持續審查機會，但我們會根據這些標準進行嚴格篩選。

And if I could point to MTS as an example, MTS was an example of an acquisition we did 2.5 years ago, which fulfilled all of our criteria.

如果我可以以 MTS 為例，MTS 就是我們 2.5 年前收購的一個例子，它滿足了我們的所有標準。

And thanks to very strong execution, that's now turning out to be a home run on the basis of being pretty selectable, the criteria going in, strong execution when we acquire it.

由於非常強大的執行力，現在事實證明這是一個全壘打，基礎上是相當可選擇性的，進入的標準，當我們獲得它時強大的執行力。

And now we've got a business that in the long term it will be a superb ITW business.

現在我們的業務從長遠來看將是一項出色的 ITW 業務。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

I was hoping this might be one call I could escape AI data centers, but I think they got dragged in.

我希望這可能是我可以逃離人工智慧資料中心的電話，但我認為他們被拖了進去。

We did bring it up just for the record.

我們確實提出它只是為了記錄。

Totally fair.

完全公平。

Totally fair.

完全公平。

If we -- just for a second, Michael or Chris, about sort of inventories.

如果我們——請稍等一下，邁克爾或克里斯，關於某種庫存。

Just curious about your own levels and those of your customers or distributor partners.

只是對您自己的水平以及您的客戶或分銷商合作夥伴的水平感到好奇。

I think your own inventories dollar-wise are pretty steady sequentially this year, but still running a little bit high as a share of revenue versus pre-COVID, maybe 11% versus something like 8% five years ago, six years ago, is 11 sort of a good run rate from here or no, it should come down over time, but gradually just as the revenue picks up.

我認為今年你們自己的庫存以美元計相當穩定，但與新冠疫情爆發前相比，收入佔比仍然有點高，可能是 11%，而五年前、六年前是 8%，是 11%。不管是否從這裡開始，運行率應該會隨著時間的推移而下降，但隨著收入的增加而逐漸下降。

And then how do you assess the sort of state of play of inventories at your distributors and customers?

那麼您如何評估經銷商和客戶的庫存狀況？

Are they kind of generally rightsized now after two years of being leaned out?

經過兩年的精簡，現在他們的規模是否普遍被調整了？

Yes, I think that's right, Julian.

是的，我認為是對的，朱利安。

Let's start there, the channel.

讓我們從頻道開始。

I think those inventory levels are -- have normalized.

我認為這些庫存水準已經正常化。

Our channel doesn't carry a lot of inventory because they're used to our kind of place an order today, we ship you tomorrow.

我們的通路沒有大量庫存，因為他們習慣了我們今天下訂單，明天我們給您發貨。

So with that level of customer service, there's no incentive for them to carry a lot of inventory.

因此，有了這種水準的客戶服務，他們就沒有動力持有大量庫存。

And then I was kind of pivot into our own inventory levels.

然後我開始關注我們自己的庫存水準。

I'd say just more broadly on free cash flow.

我想說的是更廣泛的自由現金流。

It was good to be above 100% again here in the third quarter, which is more in line with the typical levels that you expect from us.

第三季再次超過 100% 是件好事，這更符合您對我們的預期水準。

And we expect to continue to make meaningful progress again in Q4 on inventory and free cash flow.

我們預計第四季將在庫存和自由現金流方面繼續取得有意義的進展。

So we've talked about our focus on reducing our months on hand, getting back to kind of pre-COVID levels of about 2.5 months on hand.

因此，我們討論了我們的重點是減少現有月數，回到新冠疫情前約 2.5 個月的現有水準。

We're about three, the difference here is in that $300 million to $400 million range of additional inventory that we'll expect to come out Q4 and then into next year.

我們大約有三個，這裡的差異在於，我們預計將在第四季和明年推出 3 億至 4 億美元的額外庫存。

So we view that I think the same way you do as a big opportunity to drive above average free cash flow for the company here in the near term.

因此，我們認為，我認為與您的做法相同，這是一個在短期內為公司帶來高於平均自由現金流的巨大機會。

I think we've made some progress down, I think it's 6% year-over-year.

我認為我們已經取得了一些進展，比去年同期下降了 6%。

Last year, inventories came down 17%, but we can certainly -- we agree that there's some opportunity here.

去年，庫存下降了 17%，但我們當然可以——我們同意這裡存在一些機會。

And we want to do that, reduce our inventory levels while maintaining those customer service levels, which is where I started because we believe they are a real competitive advantage for us.

我們希望做到這一點，降低庫存水平，同時保持客戶服務水平，這就是我開始的地方，因為我們相信它們對我們來說是真正的競爭優勢。

And the last thing I'll say is all of this, the fact that maybe we're a little bit lower this year, free cash flow than in prior years doesn't impact our capital allocation plans.

我要說的最後一件事是，事實上，今年我們的自由現金流可能比前幾年低一些，但這不會影響我們的資本配置計畫。

We're investing in our businesses for growth and productivity, all new products are funded, we raised the dividend 7% in August, and we're buying back 1.5 billion of our shares this year as planned.

我們投資於我們的業務以實現成長和生產力，所有新產品都有資金支持，我們在 8 月將股息提高了 7%，今年我們將按計劃回購 15 億股股票。

So -- but I agree with you that there's definitely an opportunity here and we're going after it in every 1 of our 84 divisions in a meaningful way here.

所以，但我同意你的觀點，這裡絕對有機會，我們將在 84 個部門的每個部門中以一種有意義的方式追求這個機會。

That's a very good answer.

這是一個非常好的答案。

And then just my follow-up, sort of thinking again about that question of customer-backed innovation and driving up organic growth and market share I think as you said, sort of R&D to sales is pretty steady, so maybe flattish dollars year to date versus last year sort of flattish year to date down somewhat in the third quarter year on year.

然後是我的後續行動，再次思考客戶支援的創新以及推動有機成長和市場份額的問題，我認為正如您所說，研發與銷售相當穩定，所以今年迄今為止美元可能持平與去年相比，今年迄今的情況有些持平，第三季較去年同期有所下降。

So when we're thinking about kind of the levers of getting that market share are -- and it's in the context of a sort of decentralized operating structure where you're sort of letting the businesses ask you for R&D dollars.

因此，當我們考慮獲得市場份額的槓桿時，它是在一種分散的營運結構的背景下，在這種結構中，你可以讓企業向你索取研發資金。

Maybe give us one or two examples of how you're driving up that share.

也許可以給我們舉一兩個例子來說明您是如何提高這一份額的。

How does that interplay work between trying to get more dollars of spend into different businesses with a high return versus that kind of decentralized nature.

試圖將更多資金投入到具有高回報的不同業務中，與這種去中心化性質之間的相互作用如何發揮作用？

Any sort of examples around that might be helpful for me at least.

任何類型的例子至少對我可能有幫助。

Yeah.

是的。

So I would say, Julian, that our spend in innovation has been rising over the last two or three years.

所以我想說，朱利安，我們在創新方面的支出在過去兩三年裡一直在增加。

I mean we've seen double-digit increases in spend on the basis of pretty focused investments in strategic marketing and innovation across the portfolio.

我的意思是，基於對整個投資組合的策略行銷和創新的相當集中的投資，我們已經看到了支出的兩位數成長。

But a lot of this goes beyond spend.

但其中很多都超出了支出的範圍。

It really comes down to a much higher level of, I think, leadership time and focus.

我認為，這實際上取決於更高水準的領導時間和注意力。

As I said, we're already doubling down on this in the same way we doubled down on 80/20 front-to-back last time.

正如我所說，我們已經在這方面加倍努力，就像我們上次在 80/20 從前到後加倍努力一樣。

And we've been investing in building capability really for the last few years here.

過去幾年我們一直在投資能力建構。

But I think you can see that in the increased yield that we've had, it seems like '17 and '18, where it was about 1% to now where it's about 2%.

但我認為你可以看到，我們的收益率有所增加，從 17 年和 18 年的情況來看，從 1% 左右到現在的 2% 左右。

So we're already seeing the investments.

所以我們已經看到了投資。

And this capability build is both in our divisions but also at our segment level to really enable our business to be able to achieve this.

這種能力建構既在我們的部門，也在我們的細分市場層面，以真正使我們的業務能夠實現這一目標。

A lot this comes down to the quality of the framework.

這很大程度上取決於框架的品質。

We have a lot of great innovation practice across the company.

我們整個公司有很多偉大的創新實踐。

We've codified that I know we want to make sure that it resides everywhere in every division in ITW.

我知道我們希望確保它存在於 ITW 每個部門的任何地方。

And this is the exact same approach that we took on 80/20 front to back that was very successful in the last phase of our strategy.

這與我們從前到後採取的 80/20 方法完全相同，在我們策略的最後階段非常成功。

So we're on a great path there.

所以我們正走在一條偉大的道路上。

We're already seeing the outcomes.

我們已經看到了結果。

We expect to see continuous improvement in CBI contribution every year from here on out, starting in 2025.

我們預計從 2025 年開始，CBI 貢獻每年都會持續改善。

Nathan Jones, Stifel.

內森瓊斯，斯蒂菲爾。

This is Adam Farley on for Nathan.

我是亞當法利 (Adam Farley) 替補內森 (Nathan)。

I wanted to follow up on Welding.

我想跟進焊接。

What impact do you believe the upcoming election is having on the sentiment and the underlying industrial market, could we potentially see an improvement in '25, maybe postelection?

您認為即將到來的選舉會對市場情緒和基礎工業市場產生什麼影響，我們是否有可能在 25 年（也許是選舉後）看到情況有所改善？

Maybe you want to jump in?

也許你想跳進去？

Yes.

是的。

So at a high level, Nathan, I would say, look, we're a short type company.

因此，從較高的層面來看，內森，我會說，你看，我們是一家短期型公司。

So we're kind of reading and reacting to what's in front of us.

所以我們正在閱讀我們面前的事情並做出反應。

There's nothing overt or specific that we're hearing from our customers related to the election, I would say.

我想說，我們沒有從客戶那裡聽到任何與選舉有關的公開或具體資訊。

Yes, I would agree with that.

是的，我同意這一點。

I think there are some -- other than anecdotes, there's really nothing specific that we can point to.

我認為除了軼事之外，我們確實沒有什麼具體的內容可以指出。

And I think that we'll kind of leave it at that.

我認為我們就這樣吧。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

I know it wasn't called out in the press release, but was there any hurricane impact at your sites or maybe your customer sites?

我知道新聞稿中沒有提到這一點，但是您的網站或您的客戶網站是否受到颶風影響？

No.

不。

Not in our side.

不在我們這邊。

I can't speak for all of our thousands of customers in those affected regions, but there was no impact on our facilities and thank God, on our people in those areas.

我無法代表受影響地區的數千名客戶發言，但我們的設施沒有受到影響，感謝上帝，我們在這些地區的員工也沒有受到影響。

Kathleen, does that ends the call for us today?

凱瑟琳，我們今天的電話就這樣結束了嗎？

Yes, there are no further questions at this time.

是的，目前沒有其他問題。

Thank you, everyone, for participating in the call today.

謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

All lines may disconnect at this time.

此時所有線路可能會斷開。