Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Eric, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the ITW Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

早安.我叫 Eric，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 ITW 第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Karen Fletcher, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

（操作員指示）投資者關係副總裁 Karen Fletcher，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Eric. Good morning, and welcome to ITW's Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call. I'm joined by our President and CEO, Chris O'Herlihy; and Senior Vice President and CFO, Michael Larsen. Also with us today is [Aaron Linehan], who joined our Investor Relations team last month as Vice President. [Aaron], welcome to ITW.

謝謝你，埃里克。早上好，歡迎參加 ITW 2023 年第四季電話會議。和我一起出席的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris O'Herlihy；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Michael Larsen。今天和我們在一起的還有 [Aaron Linehan]，他上個月加入了我們的投資人關係團隊，擔任副總裁。 [Aaron]，歡迎來到 ITW。

During today's call, we will discuss ITW's fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results and provide guidance for full year 2024. Slide 2 is a reminder that this presentation contains forward-looking statements. Please refer to the company's 2022 Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the SEC for more detail about important risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論 ITW 2023 年第四季和全年的財務業績，並提供 2024 年全年的指導。投影片 2 提醒您，此簡報包含前瞻性陳述。有關可能導致實際結果與我們的預期存在重大差異的重要風險的更多詳細信息，請參閱公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的 2022 年 10-K 表格及其後續報告。

This presentation uses certain non-GAAP measures, and a reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is contained in the press release. Please turn to Slide 3, and it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Chris O'Herlihy.

本簡報使用了某些非 GAAP 指標，新聞稿中包含了這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳。請翻到幻燈片 3，現在我很高興將電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris O'Herlihy。

Thank you, Karen, and good morning, everyone. In Q4, we delivered a solid finish to a year of high-quality execution in the face of some pretty unique challenges, including slowing demand for CapEx, headwinds from customer and channel inventory reductions, and an automotive industry strike.

謝謝你，凱倫，大家早安。在第四季度，儘管面臨一些相當獨特的挑戰，包括資本支出需求放緩、客戶和通路庫存減少帶來的阻力以及汽車行業罷工，我們仍然以高品質的執行結束了這一年。

As a result, organic growth was essentially flat in the fourth quarter. Operating margin came in at 24.8% or 150 basis point contribution from enterprise initiatives, and free cash flow grew almost 40%. GAAP EPS of $2.38 included $0.04 of unfavorable impact from the devaluation of the Argentine currency.

因此，第四季有機成長基本持平。營業利益率為 24.8%，即企業計畫貢獻了 150 個基點，自由現金流成長了近 40%。 2.38 美元的 GAAP EPS 包括阿根廷貨幣貶值帶來的 0.04 美元的不利影響。

Throughout 2023, the ITW team continued to leverage the strength and resilience of the business model and our high-quality diversified business portfolio to deliver a year of strong operational and financial performance, including solid organic growth of 2% on top of 12% growth in both 2021 and 2022, operating margin of 25.1% and operating -- an improvement year-over-year of 130 basis points, income growth of 7% to a record $4 billion, after-tax ROIC of more than 30%, 50%-plus free cash flow growth, and GAAP EPS of $9.74.

在整個 2023 年，ITW 團隊繼續利用業務模式的優勢和韌性以及我們高品質的多元化業務組合，實現了強勁的營運和財務業績，包括在 2021 年和 2022 年均增長 12% 的基礎上實現 2% 的穩健有機增長、25.1% 的利潤後 40 億美元的利潤ROIC 超過 30%、自由現金流成長 50% 以上以及 GAAP EPS 達到 9.74 美元。

We delivered these results while investing almost $800 million to sustain productivity and accelerate our organic growth initiatives in our highly profitable core businesses.

我們在取得這些成果的同時，也投資了近 8 億美元來維持生產力並加速我們高利潤核心業務的有機成長計畫。

As we outlined at our Investor Day, our key strategic priority as we enter this next phase of our enterprise strategy in 2024 is to build above-market organic growth, fueled by customer-back innovation into a defining ITW strength, on par with our world-class financial and operational capabilities.

正如我們在投資者日所概述的那樣，當我們進入 2024 年企業戰略的下一階段時，我們的關鍵戰略重點是建立高於市場的有機增長，以客戶為本的創新為驅動力，成為 ITW 的決定性優勢，與我們世界一流的財務和運營能力相媲美。

Turning now to our 2024 guidance. We are encouraged by what we are seeing in terms of demand across the majority of our portfolio, along with some meaningful improvements in both customer and channel partner inventory levels and input cost inflation as well as continued progress on customer-back innovation. Per our usual process, our organic growth projection for 2024 of 1% to 3% and our EPS guidance of $10.20 at the midpoint reflect current levels of demand adjusted for seasonality.

現在談談我們 2024 年的指引。我們對大部分產品組合的需求感到鼓舞，同時客戶和通路合作夥伴的庫存水準和投入成本通膨都取得了一些有意義的改善，以及客戶支援創新的持續進展。按照我們的慣例，我們對 2024 年的有機成長預測為 1% 至 3%，中間值每股收益預測為 10.20 美元，反映了根據季節性調整後的當前需求水準。

Operating margin is projected to improve by about 100 basis points at the midpoint to a range of 25.5% to 26.5%. This includes another solid contribution of approximately 100 basis points from enterprise initiatives.

預計營業利潤率將提高約 100 個基點，達到 25.5% 至 26.5% 的範圍。其中包括來自企業計劃的約 100 個基點的另一項堅實貢獻。

Before I turn the call over to Michael to provide more detail on the quarter and full year performance as well as our guidance for 2024, I want to thank my ITW colleagues around the world for their extraordinary dedication and commitment to serving our customers and executing our strategy with excellence and for their incredible support as I transitioned into the CEO role. Michael?

在我將電話轉給邁克爾，讓他提供有關本季度和全年業績以及我們對 2024 年的指導的更多細節之前，我想感謝我在世界各地的 ITW 同事，感謝他們為服務我們的客戶和執行我們的戰略所做出的非凡奉獻和承諾，以及他們在我過渡到首席執行官職位時給予的巨大支持。麥可？

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. In Q4, the ITW team delivered a solid finish operationally and financially to a strong year for the company. Starting with the top line, the soft market demand for CapEx that we talked about on our Q3 earnings call continued into the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，克里斯，大家早安。第四季度，ITW 團隊在營運和財務方面取得了圓滿成功，為公司帶來了強勁的一年。從營收來看，我們在第三季財報電話會議上談到的資本支出市場需求疲軟的情況持續到了第四季。

In addition, customer and channel inventory reductions and the automotive industry strike reduced our organic growth rate by approximately 1.5%, resulting in essentially flat revenue and organic growth on a year-over-year basis.

此外，客戶和通路庫存減少以及汽車產業罷工導致我們的有機成長率降低了約1.5%，導致收入和有機成長與去年同期基本持平。

That said, we finished the year with stable to slightly improving demand on a sales per day basis as evidenced by sequential revenue growth of plus 2.5% from Q3 into Q4, compared to our historical sequential growth of plus 1.5%.

儘管如此，我們以穩定或略有改善的每日銷售需求結束了這一年，這從第三季度到第四季度的連續收入增長 2.5% 可以看出，而我們歷史上的連續增長率為 1.5%。

Foreign currency translation added 1.2% to revenue, and divestitures reduced revenue by 0.4%. GAAP EPS was $2.38 and included a $0.04 impact from the devaluation of the Argentine currency.

外幣折算使收入增加了 1.2%，而資產剝離使收入減少了 0.4%。 GAAP EPS 為 2.38 美元，其中包括阿根廷貨幣貶值 0.04 美元的影響。

On the bottom line, operating income was a Q4 record of $988 million, and operating margin was flat year-over-year as enterprise initiatives of 150 basis points and 60 basis points of price/cost margin benefit, net of year-over-year inventory revaluations, were offset by a combination of growth investments, including head count adds, higher employee-related costs such as wages and benefits, as well as increased restructuring expenses year-over-year.

總體而言，第四季度的營業收入達到創紀錄的 9.88 億美元，營業利潤率與去年同期持平，因為企業計劃增加了 150 個基點，價格/成本利潤率提高了 60 個基點，扣除同比庫存重估，但被增長投資（包括員工人數增加）、員工相關成本（如工資和福利）扣除同比庫存重估，但被增長投資（包括員工人數增加）、員工相關成本（如工資和福利）增加以及重組費用所抵消費用同比增加等因素增加因素所抵消費用和福利等因素增加因素所抵消費用同比增加因素所抵消費用同比增加因素增加因素所抵消費用和福利等因素增加因素所抵消費用同比增加因素增加等因素增加因素所抵消費用同比增加因素所抵消費用和福利等因素所抵消費用同比增加因素增加因素所抵消費用和福利等因素所抵消費用同比增加因素增加因素所抵消費用和福利等因素增加因素所抵消費用同比增加因素增加因素所抵消費用和福利等因素所抵消費用同比增加因素增加因素所抵消費用和福利等因素所抵消費用同比增加因素增加因素所抵消費用和福利等因素。

Free cash flow grew 39% to a fourth quarter record of $908 million with a conversion to net income of 127%. Overall, for Q4, solid operational execution and financial performance in a pretty challenging environment.

自由現金流成長 39%，達到第四季創紀錄的 9.08 億美元，轉化為淨收入的比率為 127%。整體而言，第四季在相當具有挑戰性的環境中，營運執行和財務表現穩健。

Please turn to Slide 4. Starting with one of the highlights for Q4 and the year, our free cash flow performance on the left side of the page. And as you can see, our full year free cash flow was up more than $1 billion to a record $3.1 billion as our inventory amounts on hand metric continued its glide path to pre-COVID levels.

請翻到幻燈片 4。首先介紹第四季和全年的亮點之一，即頁面左側的自由現金流表現。如您所見，隨著我們的庫存量指標繼續下滑至疫情之前的水平，我們的全年自由現金流增加了 10 多億美元，達到創紀錄的 31 億美元。

Now let's move to the segment results, starting with Automotive OEM, which led the way with organic growth of 8% despite North America being down 9% due to the impact of the automotive strike. Meanwhile, Europe's organic growth rate was plus 11% and China was up 31%, driven by strong market share and penetration gains in the rapidly growing EV market.

現在讓我們來看看各部門的業績，首先是汽車原始設備製造商 (OEM)，儘管北美地區受汽車罷工影響而下降了 9%，但該部門仍以 8% 的有機增長率領先。同時，由於快速成長的電動車市場的強勁市場份額和滲透率提升，歐洲的有機成長率為 11%，中國成長了 31%。

Operating margin was 19.2%, excluding 160 basis points of headwind from higher 80/20 front-to-back restructuring expenses as the Automotive OEM team continues to work toward its margin goal in the low to mid-20s over the next 2 to 3 years, as outlined at our Investor Day.

營業利潤率為 19.2%，不包括 80/20 前後重組費用增加帶來的 160 個基點的不利因素，因為汽車 OEM 團隊將繼續努力在未來 2 到 3 年內實現 20% 左右的利潤率目標，正如我們在投資者日所概述的那樣。

Looking forward, we expect Automotive OEM to grow 3% to 5% in 2024 based on an assumption of essentially flat global auto builds year-over-year, plus our typical penetration gains of 2% to 3% and continued above-market organic growth in China.

展望未來，我們預計汽車原始設備製造商 (OEM) 將在 2024 年增長 3% 至 5%，這基於全球汽車產量同比基本持平的假設，加上我們典型的 2% 至 3% 的滲透率增長以及中國市場持續高於市場的有機增長。

Turning to Slide 5. Food Equipment delivered organic growth of 3% against a tough comparison of plus 17% in Q4 last year. Equipment grew 1% and service was very strong, up 7% for the quarter. By region, North America grew 4% with institutional end markets up in the mid-teens, retail up mid-single digits, and restaurants down in the high single digits. Europe and Asia Pacific both grew 1%.

翻到幻燈片 5。食品設備實現了 3% 的有機成長，而去年第四季的有機成長為 17%。設備成長了 1%，服務表現非常強勁，本季成長了 7%。按地區劃分，北美成長了 4%，其中機構終端市場成長了 15% 左右，零售市場成長了 10% 左右，而餐廳市場則下降了 10% 左右。歐洲和亞太地區均成長了1%。

Test & Measurement and Electronics organic revenue was down 1% due to continued softness in semiconductor-related end markets. While Test & Measurement grew 5%, Electronics declined 14%.

由於半導體相關終端市場持續疲軟，測試與測量和電子有機收入下降了 1%。測試與測量產業成長了 5%，而電子產品產業則下降了 14%。

Moving on to Slide 6. Slower demand in Welding resulted in an organic revenue decline of 7%. Equipment was down 8% and consumables were down 6%. Industrial sales declined 11% versus a tough comparison of plus 23%. Commercial was down 2%, and oil and gas was down 3%. Overall, North America was down 7%, and international was down 6%.

轉到投影片 6。焊接需求放緩導致有機收入下降 7%。設備下降8%，消耗品下降6%。工業銷售額下降了 11%，而去年同期則成長了 23%。商業下跌 2%，石油和天然氣下跌 3%。總體而言，北美下降了 7%，國際下降了 6%。

Polymers & Fluids organic revenue declined 2%, with automotive aftermarket down 3%. Polymers grew 6% and Fluids was down 7%. Operating margin expanded 270 basis points to an all-time high of 28.5% for the segment.

聚合物和流體有機收入下降 2%，汽車售後市場下降 3%。聚合物成長 6%，流體下降 7%。該部門的營業利潤率擴大了 270 個基點，達到歷史最高的 28.5%。

Turning to Slide 7. In a tough housing market, Construction Products organic revenue declined 4%, as North America was essentially flat with residential renovation flat and commercial construction up 3%. International markets have been soft all year. And in the fourth quarter, Europe was down 9%, and Australia and New Zealand was down 5%.

轉到投影片 7。在艱難的房地產市場中，建築產品有機收入下降了 4%，因為北美基本上持平，其中住宅裝修持平，商業建築成長 3%。國際市場全年表現疲軟。第四季度，歐洲下降了 9%，澳洲和紐西蘭下降了 5%。

Specialty Products organic revenue was down 5%, as North America was down 6% and international declined 5%. Consumables were down 10% and equipment revenue grew 8%.

特種產品有機收入下降 5%，其中北美下降 6%，國際下降 5%。消耗品下降了 10%，設備收入成長了 8%。

Moving to Slide 8 and full year 2023 results. And as Chris said, throughout the year, our colleagues around the world did an exceptional job of delivering for our customers and responding decisively to a challenging and volatile market demand environment.

轉到幻燈片 8 和 2023 年全年業績。正如克里斯所說，在這一年中，我們在世界各地的同事們出色地完成了工作，為客戶提供了服務，並果斷地應對了充滿挑戰和動蕩的市場需求環境。

As a result of their efforts, ITW delivered record financial performance in 2023 with solid organic growth of 2% on top of 12% growth in both 2021 and 2022, best-in-class margins of more than 25%, and after-tax return on invested capital of more than 30%.

在他們的努力下，ITW 在 2023 年取得了創紀錄的財務業績，在 2021 年和 2022 年均增長 12% 的基礎上，實現了 2% 的穩健有機增長，利潤率達到業內最佳水平，超過 25%，稅後投資資本回報率超過 30%。

And we delivered these results while continuing to fully fund projects to accelerate above-market organic growth and sustain productivity in our highly profitable core businesses. We raised our dividend 7% and returned more than $3 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

我們在取得這些成果的同時，繼續全力資助項目，以加速高於市場的有機成長並維持我們高利潤核心業務的生產力。我們將股息提高了 7%，並以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還了 30 多億美元。

Let's move to Slide 9 and our guidance for full year 2024. And looking ahead, we definitely see some positives in terms of moderating headwinds in the external environment from supply chain, input cost inflation and customer channel partner inventory reductions. But there are certainly some challenges, including lower automotive builds that I talked about earlier, for example.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 9 和我們對 2024 年全年的指導。展望未來，我們肯定會看到一些正面因素，包括供應鏈、投入成本上漲和客戶通路夥伴庫存減少等外部環境阻力的緩和。但肯定也存在一些挑戰，例如我之前談到的汽車製造水準較低。

For our usual process, our top line guidance of revenue growth of 2% to 4% and organic growth of 1% to 3% is based on current levels of demand adjusted for typical seasonality and incorporate current foreign exchange rates.

對於我們通常的流程，我們對收入成長 2% 至 4% 和有機成長 1% 至 3% 的最高預期是基於當前的需求水平，並根據典型的季節性進行調整，並納入當前的外匯匯率。

Operating margin is expected to improve by about 100 basis points to a range of 25.5% to 26.5%, which includes 100 basis points contribution from our enterprise initiatives. After-tax return on invested capital is expected to remain firmly at 30% plus, and we expect strong free cash flows again with conversion greater than net income.

預計營業利潤率將提高約 100 個基點，達到 25.5% 至 26.5% 之間，其中包括來自企業計畫的 100 個基點的貢獻。預計稅後投資資本回報率將穩定保持在 30% 以上，我們預計自由現金流將再次強勁增長，轉換率將高於淨收入。

For 2024, we're projecting GAAP EPS in the range of $10 to $10.40, which includes headwinds of about $0.10 of higher interest expense and $0.20 of higher income tax expense with an expected tax rate in the range of 24% to 25.5% -- 24% to 24.5%.

對於 2024 年，我們預計 GAAP EPS 將在 10 美元至 10.40 美元之間，其中包括約 0.10 美元的利息支出增加和 0.20 美元的所得稅支出增加的不利因素，預期稅率將在 24% 至 25.5% 之間 - 24% 至 24.5% 之間。

In terms of cadence for the year, we expect our typical first half, second half EPS split of 49% and 51%. Our capital allocation plans for 2024 are consistent with our long-standing disciplined capital allocation framework that we discussed at last year's Investor Days.

就今年的節奏而言，我們預計上半年和下半年的每股盈餘將分成分別為 49% 和 51%。我們 2024 年的資本配置計畫與我們在去年投資者日討論的長期嚴謹的資本配置架構一致。

Our top priority remains internal investments to support the organic growth initiatives associated with the next phase of the enterprise strategy and sustained productivity in our highly profitable core businesses.

我們的首要任務仍然是內部投資，以支持與下一階段企業策略相關的有機成長計劃以及我們高利潤核心業務的持續生產力。

Second priority is an attractive dividend that grows in line with earnings over time, which remains a critical component of ITW's total shareholder return model.

第二要務是隨著收益隨時間增長而增長的有吸引力的股息，這仍然是 ITW 總股東回報模型的關鍵組成部分。

Third, selective high-quality acquisitions that enhance ITW's long-term profitable growth potential have significant margin improvement opportunity from the application of our proprietary and powerful 80/20 front-to-back methodology and can generate acceptable risk-adjusted returns on our shareholders' capital.

第三，選擇性的高品質收購可以增強 ITW 的長期獲利成長潛力，透過應用我們專有的、強大的 80/20 前後方法，可以顯著提高利潤率，並可以為我們的股東資本產生可接受的風險調整回報。

And finally, ITW surplus capital is allocated to an active share repurchase program as we plan to buy back $1.5 billion of our own shares in 2024.

最後，ITW 剩餘資本被分配給積極的股票回購計劃，我們計劃在 2024 年回購價值 15 億美元的自有股票。

Turning to our last slide, Slide 10, for our 2024 organic growth projections by segment. And as you can see, 5 of 7 segments combined are projecting organic growth of approximately 4% at the midpoint, partially offset by some unique challenges in Construction and Specialty Products. These segment projections are the outcome of the bottom-up planning process that we completed in January and a combination of several factors, including current levels of demand, deep underground market and customer insights from our divisions, market share gain expectations and the growing contribution from our customer-back innovation efforts and the associated new product launches in every one of our divisions.

前往我們的最後一張投影片，第 10 張，其中顯示了我們按細分市場對 2024 年有機成長的預測。如您所見，7 個細分市場中的 5 個細分市場合計預計中間值有機成長率約為 4%，但建築和特種產品領域的一些獨特挑戰將部分抵消這一增長。這些分部預測是我們在一月份完成的自下而上的規劃過程的結果，並結合了多種因素，包括當前的需求水平、我們各部門對地下市場的深度了解和客戶洞察、市場份額增長預期以及我們以客戶為本的創新努力和每個部門推出的相關新產品所帶來的日益增長的貢獻。

Consistent with ITW's continuous improvement never-satisfied mindset, every segment is projecting to improve their operating margin performance again in 2024 with another solid contribution from enterprise initiatives across the board. So overall, we're heading into the first year of our next phase enterprise strategy well positioned to continue to outperform in whatever economic conditions emerge as we move through 2024.

與 ITW 持續改善、永不滿足的理念一致，每個部門都預計在 2024 年再次提高其營業利潤率表現，並透過全面企業措施再次做出堅實貢獻。整體而言，我們正邁入下一階段企業策略的第一年，並已做好準備，無論 2024 年出現何種經濟狀況，我們都將繼續保持優異表現。

With that, Karen, I'll turn it back to you.

有了這個，凱倫，我就把它交還給你了。

Okay. Thank you, Michael. Eric, can you please open up the lines for questions.

好的。謝謝你，麥可。埃里克，您能打開熱線來回答問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞 (Tami Zakaria)。

So my first question is, when we look at the annual guide, organic growth guide for 2024 for each segment, how should we think about the segment growth rates for the first quarter? Could it be similar to the annual guide? Or do you expect any deviation from that in the first quarter and then maybe improvement throughout the year?

所以我的第一個問題是，當我們查看每個細分市場的年度指南、2024 年有機成長指南時，我們應該如何看待第一季的細分市場成長率？會不會跟年度指南類似？或者您預計第一季的情況會有所偏差，但全年可能會有所改善？

Well, I think you'll see improvement in the year-over-year organic growth rates as the comparisons get easier as we move through the year. But by and large, the projections here track kind of typical seasonality from Q4 into Q1 and so forth. So there's really nothing unusual there.

嗯，我認為，隨著時間的推移，比較會變得越來越容易，你會看到同比有機成長率的提高。但總的來說，這裡的預測追蹤了從第四季到第一季等的典型季節性。所以這其實並沒有什麼不尋常的。

The other thing to keep in mind is while the guidance at the enterprise level is essentially based on current run rates, as we talked about, it's a much more granular projection at the segment level, which includes also a significant contribution again from new products as well as our normal pricing, less drag from the inventory reduction that we've been talking about really all year. And so really give a better kind of number as we look at the segment. So that's how I would think about it.

要記住的另一件事是，雖然企業層面的指導基本上是基於當前的運行率，但正如我們所討論的，它是細分層面更細緻的預測，其中還包括新產品和正常定價的重大貢獻，較少受到我們全年都在談論的庫存減少的拖累。因此，當我們查看該部分時，確實可以給出更好的數字。這就是我的想法。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then it seems like the inside incremental margin for the year is in the 60% to 70% range, probably in the high 60%, if my math is right, versus normally 35% to 40%. So what's really driving this? Any specific segment you want to call out that may drive these overall high incrementals for the year?

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後看起來，今年的內部增量利潤率在 60% 到 70% 的範圍內，如果我的計算正確的話，可能在 60% 的高位，而通常為 35% 到 40%。那麼，真正的推動因素是什麼呢？您想指出哪個特定部分可能推動今年的整體高增量？

Yes. I think, Tami, we've got a fairly modest kind of revenue growth that we're calling for here, 1% to 3%. And our incremental margins embedded in the guidance are higher than our typical long-term 35% to 40%, which is what I would still use in terms of long-term modeling. The reason why is the 100 basis points of contribution from enterprise initiatives that give us a higher incremental margin in 2024.

是的。塔米，我認為，我們預期的營收成長率會比較適中，介於 1% 到 3% 之間。我們指引中所包含的增量利潤率高於我們典型的長期 35% 至 40%，這是我在長期建模方面仍會使用的水平。原因在於企業計畫貢獻了 100 個基點，這將為我們在 2024 年帶來更高的增量利潤。

As part of our planning process that I just described, we've now had a chance to go through all the projects and activities that contribute to 100 basis points of enterprise initiatives again in 2024. And I might add, these are largely independent of volume. So regardless of what volume does, we're seeing another significant contribution here, which is certainly a nice thing to have in your hip pocket in what we would describe still as a fairly uncertain and volatile environment.

作為我剛剛描述的規劃過程的一部分，我們現在有機會再次回顧所有有助於 2024 年實現 100 個基點的企業計劃的項目和活動。我想補充一點，這些項目和活動在很大程度上與數量無關。因此，無論交易量如何，我們都看到了另一個重大貢獻，在我們仍然被描述為相當不確定和動盪的環境中，這無疑是一件好事。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Steve Volkmann。

I actually want to ask the margin question a little bit differently, Michael, because if you have 100 basis points from enterprise and that's kind of the total that we're looking for, I suppose there must be some offsets in maybe some other costs or something because we're not really getting underlying incrementals. We're sort of getting it all from the enterprise initiatives, if you follow me. So just any detail on that would be great.

邁克爾，我實際上想以稍微不同的方式問利潤率問題，因為如果企業有 100 個基點，而這正是我們所尋求的總數，我想必定會有一些其他成本或其他東西的抵消，因為我們實際上並沒有獲得潛在的增量。如果你明白我的意思，我們會從企業計畫中獲取一切。因此，只要有關於此方面的詳細資訊就很好了。

Yes. So I think the math is actually pretty simple for 2024. So we've got some volume leverage at that 2% to 4% revenue growth. Maybe just round numbers, maybe that's about 50 basis points. The enterprise initiatives add about 100 basis points. We're entering into what we would describe as a normal price/cost environment at this point. And so there's like a modest positive contribution from our price/cost efforts.

是的。所以我認為 2024 年的計算其實非常簡單。因此，我們在 2% 到 4% 的收入成長上獲得了一些數量槓桿。也許只是整數，大概是 50 個基點。企業措施增加了約 100 個基點。目前，我們正進入所謂的正常價格/成本環境。因此，我們的價格/成本努力會做出適度的正面貢獻。

And then the offset is really our continued investments in growth, including some headcount, some employee-related costs, wages and benefits. Even though those costs are moderating in 2023, that still is approximately 100 basis points of headwind, which then gets us to that midpoint of 26% in 2024. And I might add, well on our way to our 30% target here by 2030 that we talked about at Investor Day.

然後抵消的實際上是我們對成長的持續投資，包括一些員工人數、一些與員工相關的成本、薪資和福利。即使這些成本在 2023 年有所緩和，但這仍然是大約 100 個基點的逆風，這將使我們在 2024 年達到 26% 的中點。而且我還要補充一點，我們正朝著我們在投資者日談到的到 2030 年實現 30% 的目標邁進。

Super. Okay. And then maybe if I could just follow up. The food guide, the bottoms-up food sort of outlook of 3% to 5% seems like a bit of an acceleration from sort of recent trends. And we don't have super easy comps, I don't think. So what are you seeing in that end market?

極好的。好的。然後也許我可以跟進一下。食品指南，自下而上的食品前景為 3% 至 5%，似乎比最近的趨勢有所加速。我認為，我們沒有超級簡單的比較。那麼，您在終端市場看到了什麼？

Yes. Sure, Steve. So on Food Equipment, projecting 3% to 5% growth next year, really on the back of a few different aspects. Firstly, as always, with Food Equipment, it's a very short-tail environment for innovation, so we see several new product launches across all product categories. We expect less channel de-stocking in Food Equipment in 2024.

是的。當然，史蒂夫。因此，就食品設備而言，預計明年的成長率為 3% 至 5%，這實際上是基於幾個不同方面的因素。首先，與往常一樣，食品設備產業的創新環境非常短尾，因此我們看到所有產品類別都有多款新產品推出。我們預計 2024 年食品設備通路去庫存將會減少。

And also, I would say, we have a continued recovery in service. As I think you know, service is about 1/3 of our revenues in food. We're the only major manufacturer with that captive service business. And service is a business that's still in recovery pretty much from COVID. Equipment has recovered, but we will see probably the final year of recovery in service in 2024, and all that is adding up to a 3% to 5% growth rate in food next year.

而且我想說的是，我們的服務正在持續復甦。我想您知道，服務收入約占我們食品收入的三分之一。我們是唯一擁有專屬服務業務的大型製造商。服務業在很大程度上仍處於從新冠疫情中復甦的階段。設備已經恢復，但我們可能會在 2024 年看到服務復甦的最後一年，所有這些都意味著明年食品的成長率將達到 3% 至 5%。

Your next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Andy Kaplowitz。

Michael, when we look at your 1% to 3% organic growth forecast for '24, you have a nice acceleration down in -- for your CapEx businesses such as Welding and T&M. You're saying you're basing your guidance on current run rate, so you obviously did mention some improvement in sequential demand in Q4.

邁克爾，當我們查看您對 24 年 1% 至 3% 的有機成長預測時，我們發現您的資本支出業務（例如焊接和 T&M）出現了良好的加速成長。您說您的指導是基於當前的運行率，因此您顯然提到了第四季度連續需求有所改善。

Could you give us some more color on what you're seeing in these CapEx businesses that's allowing you to forecast what you're forecasting? I would imagine you're dialing in improvements in semicon and electronics for instance in T&M, but that goes -- it's not what you usually do. I'm just curious as to what's flushing out.

您能否向我們詳細介紹一下您在這些資本支出業務中看到的情況，以便您能夠預測您所預測的結果？我可以想像您正在努力改進半導體和電子技術，例如在測試與測量領域，但事實並非如此——這不是您通常所做的事情。我只是好奇衝出來的是什麼東西。

Well, I think like we've said really most of the year, we've seen some slowing in demand for CapEx and certainly in Q3 and Q4. I think as we go into 2024, as Chris just said, we've got less headwind from these customer and channel partner inventory reductions that were a drag of about 1% in 2023. We have a meaningful contribution and increased contribution from new products, given all the efforts around customer-back innovation that we're driving.

嗯，我認為就像我們在一年中的大部分時間裡所說的那樣，我們看到資本支出的需求有所放緩，尤其是在第三和第四季。我認為，正如克里斯剛才所說，隨著我們進入 2024 年，來自客戶和通路合作夥伴庫存減少的阻力會減小，而 2023 年的阻力約為 1%。考慮到我們正在推動的所有圍繞客戶支援創新的努力，新產品的貢獻是有意義的，而且貢獻還在增加。

And then we have normal pricing. And you put all that together and just based on -- I think, as you point out, it was encouraging that we saw a pickup in the sequential revenue per day from Q3 to Q4 that, I think, tells you that there's certainly some stability here. And some of the headwinds I just described are maybe mostly behind us. We expect still a little bit of headwind from these inventory reductions as we go through the first half of the year.

然後我們就有了正常定價。把所有這些放在一起，僅僅基於——我認為，正如你所指出的，我們看到從第三季度到第四季度的每日收入連續回升，這是令人鼓舞的，我認為這告訴你這里肯定存在一定的穩定性。我剛才描述的一些不利因素可能大部分都已經過去了。我們預計，在進入上半年時，庫存減少仍會帶來一些阻力。

Think of it as we're working through our own inventory levels here, and we expect to reduce our inventories in the first half. We think our customers and channel partners may be doing some of the same, but it will be less of a headwind here in 2024. So you put all of that together, I think you're in an environment where things are pretty stable. Your -- Test & Measurement, you mentioned semi. It's less than 3% of our revenues. There is an expectation of a modest market pickup here in the second half. We expect to gain share and launch new products in this space that will grow a little bit faster than market there. But overall, we're not expecting a big recovery in demand or the economy to pick up in the second half. This is basically based on kind of current run rates.

想像一下，我們正在處理我們自己的庫存水平，我們預計上半年庫存會減少。我們認為我們的客戶和通路夥伴可能也會採取同樣的措施，但到 2024 年，這種不利因素將不會那麼多。所以，綜合考慮所有這些因素，我認為現在的環境相當穩定。您的—測試與測量，您提到了半。這還不到我們收入的3%。人們預計下半年市場將溫和回升。我們期望在這個領域獲得市場份額並推出新產品，其成長速度將比那裡的市場略快一些。但整體而言，我們預計下半年需求不會大幅復甦，經濟也不會回升。這基本上是基於當前的運行率。

The one outlier I'll just reiterate is Automotive. We're going from a build environment in 2023 that was up in the high single digits. We expect that to be about flat. And so the growth in Automotive is all from penetration gains and continued market share and innovation in China, which has been an incredible contributor to our overall growth rate and will remain so for the foreseeable future.

我要重申的一個異常值是汽車。我們將從 2023 年的高個位數建設環境開始。我們預計該數字將基本持平。因此，汽車業務的成長全部來自於中國市場的滲透率提升、持續的市場份額和創新，這對我們的整體成長率做出了不可思議的貢獻，並且在可預見的未來仍將如此。

Very helpful color, Michael. And then Chris or Michael, you mentioned unique challenges in specialty equipment and Construction Products. Maybe you could elaborate on what you're seeing in these segments. Are you doing more PLS in Specialty, for example? What's the outlook or -- friendly outlook for '24?

非常有用的顏色，邁克爾。然後克里斯或邁克爾，您提到了專用設備和建築產品面臨的獨特挑戰。也許您可以詳細說明一下您在這些片段中看到的內容。例如，您在專業領域做更多的 PLS 嗎？ 24 年的前景或友善前景如何？

Yes, that's correct, Andy. In terms of Specialty particularly, we're doing some strategic portfolio work there. Heavier, I would say, amount of product line pruning than we normally expect in a normal maintenance environment. We're doing quite a bit more on Specialty really to position that segment for long-term growth of 4% plus. So that's what's going on there, and we're pretty pleased with the progress around that.

是的，沒錯，安迪。特別是在專業方面，我們正在那裡做一些策略性投資組合工作。我想說，產品線修剪的數量比我們在正常維護環境中通常預期的要多。我們在專業領域做了大量工作，真正使該領域實現 4% 以上的長期成長。這就是那裡發生的事情，我們對這方面的進展感到非常滿意。

On Construction, it's very much a market story. I mean, obviously, all 3 main markets for us, North America, Western Europe and Australia and New Zealand, are all forecasting significantly declines in housing builds next year. 11% in North America, mid-single digits in Europe, and high single digits in ANZ. So that's really what's impacting the construction business.

就建築業而言，這很大程度上是一個市場故事。我的意思是，顯然，我們的三大主要市場——北美、西歐、澳洲和紐西蘭——都預測明年房屋建設量將大幅下降。北美為 11%，歐洲為中等個位數，澳新銀行為高個位數。這才是真正影響建築業的因素。

Your next question comes from the line of Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬·奧迪亞 (Joe O'Dea)。

So I mean you talked about the daily sales rate from Q3 to Q4. It sounds like overall customer tone is perhaps getting a little bit better. You're talking about adding some head count. Can you just expand a little bit on customer conversations over the last several months to understand a little bit better through the verticals where you see some of that uptick happening and then where you are adding head count within the business?

所以我的意思是您談到了第三季到第四季的每日銷售率。聽起來整體顧客情緒可能正在好轉一些。您正在談論增加一些員工。您能否稍微擴展一下過去幾個月的客戶對話，以便更好地了解垂直行業中出現的一些上升趨勢，以及您在哪些行業增加了員工人數？

Yes. I mean I think the tone from customers has been pretty cautious all year, particularly on the CapEx side of things, as we talked about. If you go back to our Investor Day last year, we talked a lot about accelerating our efforts to drive high-quality above-market organic growth, primarily fueled by, as Chris said earlier, our customer-back innovation efforts.

是的。我的意思是，我認為客戶的態度全年都相當謹慎，特別是在資本支出方面，正如我們所討論的。如果你回顧去年的投資者日，我們談論了很多關於加快努力推動高品質高於市場的有機成長，正如克里斯之前所說，這主要得益於我們以客戶為中心的創新努力。

And so those are the areas, all growth-related head count adds, that we're making to make sure that we have all the capability we need in terms of innovation, commercial, sales and marketing resources to drive continued progress and deliver on our above-market organic growth commitments.

因此，這些都是與成長相關的領域，我們正在努力確保我們在創新、商業、銷售和行銷資源方面擁有所需的所有能力，以推動持續進步並兌現我們高於市場的有機成長承諾。

Got it. And then on the channel inventory side of things, can you just talk about the visibility that you have and any context on how maybe elevated those inventory levels got during supply chain constraints, where you think they are now relative to normal? It sounds like you think first half of this year, you could still see customers doing a little bit of work to trim inventories.

知道了。然後，在渠道庫存方面，您能否談談您所掌握的透明度，以及在供應鏈受限期間庫存水平可能如何提高的背景信息，您認為現在庫存水平相對於正常水平如何？聽起來您認為今年上半年，您仍然可以看到客戶在做一些削減庫存的工作。

Yes. I think by and large, if you go back historically, we haven't had great visibility to the levels of inventory in the channel and with our customers. I think we have much better visibility today, given that we've been talking about it all year. Overall, it's been a drag of a percentage point on our growth rate for the year. It was 1.5% in Q3, 1% in Q4. And I think several of our segments, we are back to kind of normal inventory levels, and this is largely behind us.

是的。我認為，總的來說，如果回顧歷史，我們對通路和客戶的庫存水準並沒有很好的了解。鑑於我們整年都在討論這個問題，我認為今天我們的認識要高得多。整體而言，這拖累了我們今年的成長率一個百分點。第三季為 1.5%，第四季為 1%。我認為我們的幾個部門的庫存已經恢復到正常水平，基本上已經過去了。

And then there's maybe a few other areas where there might be some continued but certainly less headwind as we go into Q1 and Q2. And then I think at that point, we'll give you an update. I think we'll be able to say this is now completely behind us.

然後，當我們進入第一季和第二季時，可能還有其他幾個領域可能會繼續面臨一些阻力，但阻力肯定會減少。然後我想我們會給你一個最新消息。我想我們可以說這件事已經完全過去了。

And so with respect to the growth outlook, there's no real notable inventory headwind within that growth range?

那麼就成長前景而言，在成長範圍內沒有真正明顯的庫存阻力嗎？

Well, there's a little bit. I mean, obviously, if you look at our run rates, it is included in our run rates at a higher level than what we might reasonably expect. So if that plays out the way we expect, that would be certainly favorable to the run rate and to the guidance that we just gave you.

嗯，有一點。我的意思是，顯然，如果你看看我們的運行率，它在我們的運行率中的水平比我們合理預期的要高。因此，如果一切按照我們預期的方式進行，那肯定會有利於運行率和我們剛剛給您的指導。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

You have Sabrina Abrams on for Andrew Obin. As we think about pricing into 2024, are there any segments or any particular businesses where on the margin, you're seeing more competition on -- pricing competition as costs moderate?

薩布麗娜·艾布拉姆斯 (Sabrina Abrams) 代替安德魯·奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。當我們考慮 2024 年的定價時，是否存在任何細分市場或特定業務在邊際上，您看到更多的競爭——隨著成本適中，價格競爭加劇？

Well, I think, Sabrina, we've talked about this before. We want to maintain our price premium based on the quality and the customer service, the lead times that ITW is uniquely positioned to provide, but we also want to compete and we want to gain market share. That's kind of central to our overall enterprise strategy and the focus I just talked about around organic growth. So that said, I think we expect a normal contribution from price here in 2024.

嗯，薩布麗娜，我想我們之前已經討論過這個問題了。我們希望憑藉 ITW 獨特的品質、客戶服務和交貨時間保持我們的價格優勢，但我們也希望參與競爭並獲得市場份額。這對我們的整體企業策略和我剛才談到的有機成長重點至關重要。所以，我認為我們預計 2024 年價格將出現正常貢獻。

These inflation-driven price increases are now behind us. Input cost inflation, that big wave, we've been dealing with. As we sit here today, we'd say it's largely behind us. And so we're entering into a normal pricing environment across the portfolio. I think that is a fair statement. If you just look at -- we have now essentially recovered the margin impact from that price/cost dynamics, and we're entering into a normal environment in 2024.

這些由通貨膨脹引發的價格上漲現在已經成為過去。我們一直在應對投入成本通膨這一巨浪。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們可以說這一切基本上已經過去了。因此，我們的整個投資組合正在進入正常的定價環境。我認為這是一個公平的說法。如果你看一下——我們現在基本上已經從價格/成本動態中恢復了利潤率的影響，並且我們將在 2024 年進入正常環境。

And then as a follow-up on Welding. What is driving the re-acceleration in growth there from the down 6% in 4Q? And how are you thinking about margins in the segment in 2024, given where you're exiting the year and the sort of margins you reported in 2023 here?

然後作為焊接的後續。是什麼推動了那裡的經濟成長從第四季的 6% 下滑再次加速？考慮到您今年的業績以及 2023 年報告的利潤率，您如何看待 2024 年該部門的利潤率？

Well, I think, Welding, so we're not counting on a market acceleration, just to be clear. This is -- if you look at -- in a normal market environment, just assume for a minute, let's assume the market is flat. The contribution from new products and normal price very quickly gets you to something in the low single digits. So I just want to be clear around that. The other thing I'd say just on the margins, we talked a little bit about the year-over-year inventory revaluations. That's what caused the margins to drop in the fourth quarter below 30%.

嗯，我認為，焊接，所以我們不指望市場加速，只是為了清楚起見。這是——如果你看一下——在正常的市場環境中，假設一下，假設市場平穩。新產品和正常價格的貢獻很快就會讓你達到個位數的低點。所以我只是想明確這一點。我想說的另一件事是關於利潤率的，我們稍微討論了一下同比庫存重估的情況。這就是導致第四季利潤率降至30%以下的原因。

And we expect that to be back above 30% here in the first quarter as that onetime kind of year-over-year inventory impact is behind us. So we would expect margins to kind of remain in that 30% plus as we go through 2024. And as I said earlier, everyone -- and that's not unusual. Every one of our segments told us, as part of this bottom-up planning process, that they are on target to improve their operating margin performance in 2024.

我們預計第一季這一比例將回升至 30% 以上，因為一次性的年比庫存影響已經過去。因此，我們預計到 2024 年利潤率將維持在 30% 以上。正如我之前所說，這並不罕見。作為自下而上的規劃過程的一部分，我們的每個部門都告訴我們，他們的目標是在 2024 年提高營業利潤率。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的史蒂文費雪。

This has been asked in a few ways about the segments, but really just trying to think about the 1% to 3% organic growth in the context of your sort of 4% to 7% CAGR through 2030. I guess what's the buildup of market growth and price versus market penetration and customer-back innovation? Again, there's lots of different segments dynamics here. But when you roll it all up, are you basically assuming that it's kind of like flat markets and a couple of points of penetration and innovation? Is that the way to think about it?

這個問題已經以多種方式被問及細分市場，但實際上只是試圖在 2030 年 4% 到 7% 的複合年增長率的背景下考慮 1% 到 3% 的有機增長。我猜市場成長和價格與市場滲透率和客戶支援創新的累積是什麼？再次，這裡有很多不同的細分動態。但是當你把這一切捲起來時，你基本上是否假設它有點像平坦的市場和幾個滲透點和創新點？是這樣思考的嗎？

Yes. I think it is. I mean, as we say, in our 4% to 7% calculus that we outlined at Investor Day, you have a contribution from market penetration. And the largest contribution is actually from customer-back innovation. And that's what we're seeing here in 2024 really across most of our businesses. As we think about growth, 2% growth last year on top of 12% growth in '21 and '22 and targeting 1% to 3% here on the path to 4% plus is kind of outlining this. And I would say that it's a target and a goal that we're very confident on, on the basis that it's where the bulk of our divisions are spending their time.

是的。我認為是的。我的意思是，正如我們所說的，在投資者日概述的 4% 到 7% 的計算中，市場滲透率做出了貢獻。而最大的貢獻其實來自於客戶支援的創新。這就是我們在 2024 年在大多數業務中看到的情況。當我們考慮成長時，去年的成長率為 2%，21 年和 22 年的成長率為 12%，而今年的目標是 1% 到 3%，最終達到 4% 以上，這大致概括了這一點。我想說，我們對這個目標非常有信心，因為我們大部分的部門都把時間花在了這上面。

We're making progress. Certainly, more to do. But given the portfolio, given the fact that we've got plenty of room to grow in each segment, given the investments that Michael has been talking about that we've been making now for quite a few years in strategic marketing and innovation, we're really putting ourselves and building the muscle here to get into a position where we will grow 4% plus over the entirety of this next phase. And I think in terms of just capability build, if you think about this in the way that -- the way we leaned into front-to-back 80/20 in the last phase of our strategy, that's the way we're leaning into innovation in the next phase of our strategy.

我們正在取得進展。當然，還有很多事情要做。但考慮到投資組合，考慮到我們在每個領域都有足夠的成長空間，考慮到麥可一直在談論的我們在策略行銷和創新方面已經進行了相當多年的投資，我們確實在努力並增強實力，以達到在下一階段實現 4% 以上成長的目標。我認為，就能力建構而言，如果你這樣想——我們在策略的最後階段傾向於從前到後的 80/20 的方式，那就是我們在策略的下一階段傾向於創新的方式。

The same level of rigor, scope and capability building that we have played to front-to-back 80/20 in the first phase, we are now applying to customer-back innovation here in this next phase. And I would say we're very encouraged by the progress that we've seen on innovation over the last couple of years. It was a 1% contributor 5 years ago. It's now a 2% contributor on its way to 3% and beyond. And again, very encouraged by the progress that we're seeing across many of our divisions in terms of the qualitative work they're doing on innovation, but also in terms of the quality of the innovation pipeline across all 7 segments.

我們在第一階段對前端到後端 80/20 的嚴格程度、範圍和能力建設進行了同樣的應用，現在我們將在下一階段將其應用於客戶後端創新。我想說的是，過去幾年我們在創新方面取得的進展讓我們感到非常鼓舞。 5年前它的貢獻率為1%。目前，它的貢獻率為 2%，並且預計達到 3% 甚至更高。再次，我們看到許多部門在創新定性工作方面取得了進展，並且所有 7 個部門的創新管道品質也取得了進展，這讓我們感到非常鼓舞。

That's really helpful. And just a follow-up, sort of the macro level, the pace of economic growth seems to be diverging between Europe and North America increasingly. So can you just give us a sense of what you've factored in on the European economy and how you're thinking about that? I -- you talked about the construction side, but -- and I guess, similarly on China, how are you thinking about China in '24? Sort of a net positive for you, I think, in '23, maybe different for some other companies. So how are you thinking about that in '24?

這真的很有幫助。從宏觀層面來看，歐洲和北美的經濟成長速度似乎差距越來越大。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下您對歐洲經濟的考慮因素以及您對此的看法？我——您談到了建築方面，但是——我想，關於中國，您如何看待 24 年的中國？我認為，對你們來說，23 年的淨收益是正面的，但對於其他一些公司來說，可能會有所不同。那麼，您對 24 年的情況有何看法？

Yes. I think in our overall guidance here of 1% to 3% organic, that's where you'll find all the major geographies. So North America, in that low single digits, 1% to 3% range. And Europe, kind of similar to North America. Definitely, we've seen some challenges on the construction side, as you pointed out. But kind of you put it all together, it's in that 1% to 3% range. And then the -- China is more positive, but that's really driven by the Automotive business, which is more than half of our revenues in China. So we expect another double-digit type growth for the auto business in China, and that takes China to kind of the mid-single-digit range in 2024.

是的。我認為，在我們這裡 1% 到 3% 的有機率的整體指導中，你會發現所有主要地區都是如此。因此，北美處於低個位數，即 1% 到 3% 的範圍內。歐洲與北美有點相似。確實，正如您所指出的，我們在建設方面遇到了一些挑戰。但如果你把所有這些因素綜合起來看，它就處於 1% 到 3% 的範圍內。然後——中國的情況更加積極，但這實際上是由汽車業務推動的，汽車業務占我們在中國收入的一半以上。因此，我們預計中國汽車業務將再次實現兩位數成長，到 2024 年，中國的汽車業務將達到中等個位數成長水準。

Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安米切爾。

Maybe -- and apologies on somewhat retreading some worn ground already. But just trying to understand on the revenue outlook again because it sounds like you had suffered from some de-stocking in 2023. You're assuming that de-stocking continues Q1 and Q2 or you're seeing that de-stocking continue as we speak. But you sound confident on the sort of sell-through, I suppose.

或許吧——對於我之前重複的一些老生常談，我深感抱歉。但只是想再次了解收入前景，因為聽起來您在 2023 年遭受了一些去庫存的影響。您假設去庫存將在第一季和第二季繼續，或者您看到去庫存正在繼續。但我想，你聽起來對這種銷售情況很有信心。

And so the guidance embeds your sell-in recouples upwards to sell-through in the second half. So I just wanted to make sure, is that the right way of thinking about it? And when you're thinking about sell-through right now, is your sense from your salespeople and the bottom-up work that you mentioned that the sell-through in most of your markets is sort of better now than a few months ago? Just trying to understand that, please.

因此，該指南將您的賣出重新掛鉤嵌入到下半年的賣出中。所以我只是想確定一下，這是正確的思考方式嗎？當您現在考慮銷售率時，您是否從銷售人員和自下而上的工作中感覺到，現在大多數市場的銷售率比幾個月前有所好轉？我只是想理解這一點，拜託。

I'd say it's about the same, Julian. I mean I think we -- as Chris said, we just delivered 2% organic growth in '23 in a pretty challenging environment as we talked about. And that included a point of inventory reduction impact. And I might add a point of drag from semi since it came up earlier. So it just -- if those 2 don't repeat, which is what we're saying, then you go from 2% to 4% pretty quickly.

我想說的是，朱利安，情況大致相同。我的意思是，我認為我們——正如克里斯所說，我們在 2023 年實現了 2% 的有機成長，儘管環境相當具有挑戰性。其中包括庫存減少的影響。而且由於它出現得較早，我可能會添加半拖曳點。所以，如果這兩個數字不重複，也就是我們所說的，那麼你很快就會從 2% 上升到 4%。

So -- and we're not saying that de-stocking continues at the same level in the first half, which I think is what you said. We do expect it to be less of a drag in the first half. We also said the comps year-over-year are certainly more challenging in the first half than they are in the second half.

所以——我們並不是說上半年去庫存會繼續保持在同一水平，我認為這就是您所說的。我們確實預期上半年的拖累作用會比較小。我們也表示，上半年的年增速肯定比下半年更具挑戰性。

So -- but I think we're confident because when we look at everything going on inside the company and this focus on driving above-market organic growth, a big focus on customer-back innovation. We look at the pipeline of new products that are being launched in every one of our divisions across the company. We look at a kind of a normal pricing environment. We feel pretty confident based on what we're seeing as we sit here today.

所以——但我認為我們有信心，因為當我們觀察公司內部發生的一切，並專注於推動高於市場的有機成長，並專注於客戶支援的創新。我們關注公司各部門即將推出的新產品。我們關注的是正常的定價環境。根據我們今天所看到的情況，我們感到非常有信心。

Now we also said this is a pretty uncertain and volatile environment. Things can change quickly. And so the thing that we have a lot of confidence is our ability to continue to read and react to whatever conditions our divisions are dealing with on the ground and deliver strong performance as we go through 2024.

現在我們也說這是一個相當不確定且不穩定的環境。事情可能很快就會發生變化。因此，我們非常有信心的是，我們有能力繼續了解和應對我們各部門在實際面臨的任何情況，並在 2024 年取得強勁的業績。

So we're not economists. We're not trying to forecast where the global economy is going. We're kind of basing our guidance on all the things we just talked about. So -- and that's how we end up in that 1% to 3% range for 2024, which to us doesn't seem like a moonshot based on everything we just talked about.

所以我們不是經濟學家。我們並不是想預測全球經濟的走向。我們的指導是基於我們剛才談到的所有事情。所以——這就是我們最終將 2024 年的成長率定在 1% 到 3% 範圍內的原因，根據我們剛才討論的所有內容，這對我們來說似乎並不是一個遙不可及的目標。

That's helpful. And then maybe switching away from the top line. On the margin front, I think in an earlier question reply, you mentioned sort of higher investments offsetting enterprise initiatives. So a couple of things on margin. One was, are we seeing a big increase in R&D and/or CapEx this year? And any color on those as a sort of external benchmark for that reinvestment rate? And then price/cost, I think a big first half tailwind for you maybe on margins this year. Just wanted to sort of any sense of scale for that.

這很有幫助。然後也許會從頂線轉移。在利潤方面，我想在先前的問題回答中，您提到了更高的投資抵消了企業計劃。因此，有幾件事情與邊際有關。一是，今年我們是否會看到研發和/或資本支出大幅增加？這些是否可以作為再投資率的外部基準？然後是價格/成本，我認為今年上半年您的利潤率可能會出現很大的順風。只是想對此有個大概的了解。

Yes. Price/cost, I think we're kind of in a normal environment for 2024. It's not going to be a material driver of our performance. It will be a modest contribution to margins and EPS in 2024 based on everything that we know today from a pricing and an inflation standpoint.

是的。價格/成本，我認為我們在 2024 年處於正常環境。它不會成為我們業績的實質驅動因素。根據我們今天從定價和通膨角度所了解的一切，它將對 2024 年的利潤率和每股盈餘做出適度貢獻。

In terms of the investments, I think our investments grow in line with our sales over time, and that's true both for customer-back innovation. It's also true for our capacity CapEx improvements that are -- all of these investments, about $800 million in 2024, are geared and centered around driving above-market organic growth in every one of our divisions.

就投資而言，我認為我們的投資會隨著時間的推移與我們的銷售額同步成長，對於客戶支援的創新也是如此。對於我們的產能資本支出改善而言，所有這些投資（2024 年約為 8 億美元）都旨在並專注於推動我們每個部門實現高於市場的有機成長。

And the biggest headwind, I think, to margins this year was not so much the investments necessarily, not just in growth, but we saw inflation in our employee-related costs just like everybody else, including wages and benefits.

我認為，今年利潤率面臨的最大阻力不一定是投資，也不僅僅在於成長，還在於我們和其他人一樣，看到了員工相關成本的膨脹，包括薪資和福利。

And we expect that part of the equation to moderate here in 2024 based on some of the actions we're taking to manage those costs in 2024. So that's not going to be an increased headwind as we go forward.

根據我們為管理 2024 年這些成本而採取的一些行動，我們預計 2024 年這一部分的成本將會有所緩和。因此，這不會成為我們未來發展的阻力。

Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird.

您的下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的米格·多布雷 (Mig Dobre)。

So on the topic of outgrowth, it sounds like you're seeing about 2% this year. You're aiming for maybe 3 percentage points. I guess what I'm curious, when you're looking at your portfolio, presumably, we don't have this outgrowth notion being sort of evenly distributed. What portions of your portfolio are generating outgrowth at the pace that you need it to be? And where else do we need to see further investment or further adjustments needed to be made?

因此，關於成長問題，聽起來今年的成長速度約為 2%。你的目標可能是 3 個百分點。我想我感到好奇的是，當你審視你的投資組合時，大概我們並沒有看到這種均勻分佈的成長概念。您的投資組合中哪些部分正在以您所需的速度產生成長？我們還需要在哪些方面進行進一步投資或進一步調整？

Yes. So Mig, I would say that we're probably seeing outgrowth across most of our portfolio. I would use auto as an example. I think it will [plateau] in 2024. We're talking about 3% to 5% on auto as an example. We've historically outgrown in Food Equipment. As I think you know, if you look at some of the comparisons and so on, also with Welding and with Construction, large dollar market here in 2023, which we outgrew. So we have the capacity to outgrow across much of our segment.

是的。所以米格，我想說我們可能會看到我們大部分投資組合都出現了成長。我將使用汽車作為例子。我認為它將在 2024 年達到穩定水平。我們以汽車為例，其成長率約為 3% 至 5%。從歷史上看，我們在食品設備領域已經發展得不夠成熟。我想你知道，如果你看一下比較結果，你會發現焊接和建築行業在 2023 年的市場規模很大，而我們的成長速度超過了這個水平。因此，我們有能力在大部分領域實現成長。

And with respect to investments, I think we've been making these focused targeted investments for some time. This is not new news. This is something we've been doing for a few years to really position ourselves to grow at 4% plus across the enterprise over this next phase.

關於投資，我認為我們已經進行這些有針對性的投資一段時間了。這並不是什麼新鮮事。這是我們幾年來一直在做的事情，目的是真正實現下一階段整個企業 4% 以上的成長。

And I think the big driver of that, as we said a few times, is customer-back innovation. It's the leaning on customer-back innovation that we've been working on for a couple of years and will accelerate over this next phase.

我認為，正如我們多次提到的，實現這一目標的最大驅動力是客戶驅動的創新。幾年來，我們一直致力於依靠客戶推動的創新，並將在下一階段加速前進。

And that's really what will drive the outgrowth going forward. And that customer-back innovation opportunity resides in every segment on the basis of the level of differentiation in every segment, the share runway opportunity we have in every segment. So we would expect every segment in time to meaningfully contribute to that 4%-plus organic growth.

這才是真正推動未來成長的動力。並且，基於每個細分市場的差異化程度以及我們在每個細分市場所擁有的共享跑道機會，客戶支援的創新機會存在於每個細分市場中。因此，我們預計每個部門最終都會對 4% 以上的有機成長做出有意義的貢獻。

Yes. I would just add to that, Mig. We've talked a lot about the individual segments today. I think you've got to look at ITW as the beneficiary of a highly diversified high-quality portfolio, all of our segments with margins in the high 20s. We're working through Automotive. And so you're always going to have some puts and takes, which is what we're talking about. But this portfolio really gives us a level of resilience and a real competitive advantage relative to others and puts us in a great position to perform -- continue to perform at a high level in any type of demand environment over the long term.

是的。我只是想補充一點，米格。今天我們已經討論了很多關於各個部分的內容。我認為你必須將 ITW 視為高度多元化高品質投資組合的受益者，我們所有部門的利潤率都在 20% 以上。我們正在透過汽車產業開展工作。所以你總是會遇到一些困難和挫折，這就是我們正在談論的。但這個投資組合確實為我們提供了相對於其他公司的一定程度的彈性和真正的競爭優勢，並使我們處於有利地位——在長期內繼續在任何類型的需求環境中保持高水平的表現。

Now we never said that we were going to be the fastest grower. There's always going to be certain end market trends, whether it be aerospace or electrification or whatever it may be. But you put this portfolio together in its totality, we have all the firepower that we need to deliver a 4%-plus average annual organic growth as we go forward. And by the way, 5 of our segments are doing that, as we said earlier in 2024. So I wouldn't lose sight of the fact that we're a business model-centric company and a huge beneficiary of this high-quality diversified portfolio.

我們從來沒有說過我們會成為成長最快的公司。總是會存在某些終端市場趨勢，無論是航空航太、電氣化或其他什麼。但如果你把這個投資組合放在一起，我們就有實現 4% 以上年均有機成長率所需的全部火力。順便說一句，正如我們在 2024 年早些時候所說的那樣，我們的 5 個部門正在這樣做。因此，我不會忽視這樣一個事實，即我們是一家以商業模式為中心的公司，也是這種高品質多元化投資組合的巨大受益者。

Understood. Then my follow-up, maybe a question on M&A, Chris. I'd love to get your thoughts on this and maybe how you think about using M&A as a potential tool to generate this outgrowth that you're talking about.

明白了。那麼我的後續問題可能是關於併購的問題，克里斯。我很想聽聽您對此的看法，以及您如何看待使用併購作為潛在工具來實現您所說的這種增長。

Yes, sure, Mig. So effectively, we are very much sticking to our disciplined portfolio management strategy, which is very consistent in terms of -- we are certainly interested in high-quality acquisitions where we can find them that extends our long-term growth potential. To grow at a minimum 4% plus at high quality, that's the primary kind of lens we look at acquisitions.

是的，當然，米格。因此，實際上，我們非常堅持我們嚴謹的投資組合管理策略，該策略在以下方面非常一致——我們當然對高品質的收購感興趣，我們可以找到能夠擴大我們長期成長潛力的收購。以至少 4% 以上的高品質成長，這是我們看待收購的主要視角。

We've been able to leverage the business model to improve margins. And so we certainly review opportunities on an ongoing basis, but we're pretty selective here about acquisitions given the fact that we believe we've got a lot of organic growth potential that we're going to execute on here over the next few years.

我們已經能夠利用商業模式來提高利潤率。因此，我們肯定會持續審查機會，但我們對收購非常挑剔，因為我們相信我們擁有很大的有機成長潛力，並將在未來幾年內實現這些潛力。

If I think about MTS as an example of the typical attractive candidate we look at, ticked all the boxes in terms of strategic attraction, in terms of differentiation, solving customer pain points, opportunity to leverage the business model to improve margins and having owned that business now for just over 2 years, because we stuck to the characteristics that we believe in with respect to acquisitions, this is an acquisition that's turning out to be a home run and will be a great ITW business in the long term.

如果我將 MTS 視為我們所關注的典型有吸引力的候選人的一個例子，那麼它在戰略吸引力、差異化、解決客戶痛點、利用業務模式提高利潤率的機會方面都符合要求，並且我們已經擁有該業務兩年多了，因為我們堅持了我們在收購方面所信奉的特點，所以這次收購最終會取得巨大成功，從長遠來看，它將成為一個偉大的 ITW 業務。

So it's a real blueprint for how we think about acquisitions and how we'd be thinking about acquisitions going forward.

因此，它是我們如何看待收購以及我們如何看待未來收購的真實藍圖。

Thank you for participating in today's conference call. All lines may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。此時所有線路可能會斷開。