Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Regina and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the ITW's fourth-quarter and full-year earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

早安.我叫雷吉娜，今天將由我擔任你們的會議接線生。此時此刻，我謹代表ITW歡迎各位參加第四季及全年財報電話會議。（操作說明）謝謝。

Erin Linnihan, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin the conference.

投資者關係副總裁艾琳·林尼漢，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you, Regina. Good morning and welcome to our ITW fourth-quarter 2025 conference call. I'm joined by our President and CEO, Chris O'Herlihy; and Senior Vice President and CFO, Michael Larsen.

謝謝你，雷吉娜。早安，歡迎參加 ITW 2025 年第四季電話會議。與我一同出席的還有我們的總裁兼執行長克里斯·奧赫利希，以及資深副總裁兼財務長麥可·拉森。

During today's call, we will discuss ITW's fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results and provide guidance for full-year 2026. Slide 2 is a reminder that this presentation contains forward-looking statements. Please refer to the company's 2024 Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the SEC for more detail about important risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. This presentation uses certain non-GAAP measures, and a reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is contained in the press release.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將討論 ITW 2025 年第四季和全年的財務業績，並提供 2026 年全年的業績指引。第 2 張投影片提醒大家，本簡報包含前瞻性陳述。有關可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的重要風險的更多詳細信息，請參閱公司 2024 年 10-K 表格及隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告。本次示範使用了某些非GAAP指標，新聞稿中包含了這些指標與最直接可比較的GAAP指標的調節表。

Please turn to slide 3, and it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Chris O'Herlihy. Chris?

請翻到第 3 張投影片，現在我很高興將電話交給我們的總裁兼執行長克里斯·奧赫利希。克里斯？

Thank you, Erin. Good morning, everyone. As you saw on our press release morning, ITW delivered a solid finish to the year. In the fourth quarter, we outperformed our underlying end markets with revenue growth of more than 4% and delivered a 7% increase in GAAP EPS to $2.72. Through disciplined operational execution, we expanded operating income and margins to record levels.

謝謝你，艾琳。各位早安。正如您今天早上在我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，ITW 為這一年畫上了圓滿的句號。第四季度，我們的業績優於基礎終端市場，營收成長超過 4%，GAAP 每股盈餘成長 7% 至 2.72 美元。透過嚴格的營運執行，我們將營業收入和利潤率提升至歷史新高。

Starting with the top line. Organic growth of 1.3% marked our best quality performance of the year. Overall Q4 demand improved as reflected in higher-than-normal sequential improvement of 4% from Q3. In addition to market outperformance, the ITW team continued to execute at a high level resulting in operating income of $1.1 billion, an increase of 5%. Segment margins were 27.7%, up 120 basis points, with 140-basis-point contribution from enterprise initiatives.

從第一行開始。1.3% 的有機成長率是我們今年表現最好的成績。第四季整體需求有所改善，季增4%，高於正常水準。除了市場表現優異外，ITW 團隊繼續保持高水準的執行力，實現了 11 億美元的營業收入，成長了 5%。分部利潤率為 27.7%，成長 120 個基點，其中企業措施貢獻了 140 個基點。

Looking back on a challenging external environment in 2025, the ITW team delivered another year of robust financial performance. We consistently outperformed our markets, solidly improved profitability, and made meaningful progress on our next phase key strategic priorities.

回顧 2025 年充滿挑戰的外部環境，ITW 團隊又取得了一年穩健的財務表現。我們持續跑贏市場，獲利能力穩步提升，並在下一階段的關鍵策略重點方面取得了實質進展。

Throughout the year, we remained laser focused on building above-market organic growth fueled by Customer-Back Innovation or CBI into a defining ITW strength. We are pleased to have achieved 2.4% CBI fuel revenue growth in 2025, a 40-basis-point improvement, as we track toward our 2030 goal of 3% plus. Furthermore, I'm encouraged by a key leading indicator of CBI contribution, our patent filings, which increased by 9% last year, following an 18% increase in 2024.

在這一年中，我們始終專注於打造以客戶驅動創新 (CBI) 為驅動力的超市場有機成長，並將其作為 IT​​W 的決定性優勢。我們很高興地宣布，2025 年 CBI 燃料收入成長了 2.4%，提高了 40 個基點，我們正朝著 2030 年 3% 以上的目標穩步邁進。此外，CBI貢獻的關鍵領先指標——專利申請量——也令我感到鼓舞，去年專利申請量增加了9%，而2024年預計成長18%。

Turning to guidance, we entered 2026 with solid momentum. Per our usual approach, our organic growth projection of 1% to 3% reflects current demand levels adjusted for seasonality. We are well-positioned to capitalize on any further improvement in the macro environment. Our EPS guidance midpoint of $11.20 represents 7% growth, and we expect operating marginal expansion of about 100 basis points powered by enterprise initiatives. Our 2026 forecast ensures we remain firmly on track to deliver on our 2030 performance goals.

展望未來，我們以強勁的發展勢頭進入了 2026 年。依照我們通常的做法，我們對1%至3%的有機成長預測反映了目前經季節性調整的需求水準。我們已做好充分準備，能夠掌握宏觀環境進一步改善所帶來的機會。我們預計每股收益中位數為 11.20 美元，成長 7%，我們預計在企業各項措施的推動下，營運邊際成長將達到約 100 個基點。我們的 2026 年預測確保我們能夠穩步實現 2030 年的業績目標。

In closing, I want to sincerely thank our global ITW colleagues for their unwavering dedication to serving our customers and executing our strategy with excellence each and every day.

最後，我要衷心感謝ITW全球的同事們，感謝他們始終如一地致力於服務客戶，並日復一日地出色執行我們的策略。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Michael to provide more detail on the quarter and our guidance for 2026. Michael?

接下來，我將把電話交給邁克爾，讓他詳細介紹本季業績以及我們對 2026 年的展望。麥可？

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone. In Q4, the ITW team delivered a solid operational and financial finish to the year. Organic growth was 1.3%, foreign currency translation added 2.5%, and acquisitions contributed 0.3%, bringing total revenue growth to 4.1%. Notably, our 4% sequential revenue growth from Q3 to Q4 significantly outperformed our historical sequential average of 2%.

謝謝你，克里斯。各位早安。第四季度，ITW 團隊實現了穩健的營運和財務業績，為全年畫上了圓滿的句號。有機成長1.3%，外匯折算貢獻2.5%，收購貢獻0.3%，使總營收成長達4.1%。值得注意的是，我們第三季到第四季的環比收入成長了 4%，顯著超過了我們歷史上 2% 的環比平均值。

On a geographic basis, North America grew about 2%, Asia Pacific was up 3%, while Europe declined 2%. On the bottom line, we achieved the fourth quarter record operating margin of 26.5% with enterprise initiatives contributing 140 basis points.

從地理上看，北美成長了約 2%，亞太地區成長了 3%，而歐洲則下降了 2%。最終，我們實現了第四季度創紀錄的 26.5% 的營業利潤率，其中企業舉措貢獻了 140 個基點。

As noted in our press release, segment operating margin was 27.7%, 120-basis-point increase, with incremental margins of more than 50%. All seven segments expanded operating margins driven by enterprise initiatives which contributed between 80 and 210 basis points per segment.

正如我們在新聞稿中所述，該業務部門的營業利潤率為 27.7%，成長了 120 個基點，增量利潤率超過 50%。受企業各項措施的推動，所有七個業務部門的營業利潤率均有所提高，每個業務部門的利潤率提高了 80 至 210 個基點。

Free cash flow conversion to net income was 109% for the quarter. We repurchased $375 million of shares and our tax rate was 22.8%.

本季自由現金流轉化為淨利的比率為109%。我們回購了價值 3.75 億美元的股票，稅率為 22.8%。

Please turn to slide 4 and as Chris mentioned, CBI is our most impactful driver for organic growth. We're pleased with our 2025 progress reaching a 2.4% CBI contribution, a 40-basis-point year-over-year improvement. We expect meaningful progress again in 2026 on this key strategic initiative as we track toward our longer-term goal.

請翻到第 4 張幻燈片，正如 Chris 所提到的，CBI 是我們實現有機成長的最強動力。我們對 2025 年的進展感到滿意，CBI 貢獻率達到 2.4%，比前一年提高了 40 個基點。我們預計，隨著我們朝著長期目標邁進，這項關鍵策略舉措將在 2026 年再次取得實質進展。

Now let's move to the fourth quarter segment results, starting with Automotive OEM where revenue increased 6% and organic revenue increased 2%. On a regional basis, North America was up 2%, while Europe was down 1%, and China grew 5%. For the full-year 2025, this segment outperformed relevant builds, and we expect our typical 200 to 300 basis points of outperformance in 2026.

現在讓我們來看看第四季度各業務板塊的業績，首先是汽車OEM業務，該板塊的收入增長了6%，有機收入增長了2%。從區域來看，北美成長了 2%，歐洲下降了 1%，而中國成長了 5%。2025 年全年，該板塊的表現優於相關板塊，我們預計 2026 年將取得 200 至 300 個基點的典型超額收益。

Full-year margins are a prime example of ITW's Do What We Say execution. In 2025, margins improved by 150 basis points to 21.1%, consistent with the goal established during our 2023 Investor Day. Driven by our culture of continuous improvement, we expect to further expand these margins in 2026.

全年利潤率是 ITW 言出必行執行力的最佳例證。2025 年，利潤率提高了 150 個基點，達到 21.1%，與我們在 2023 年投資者日上設定的目標一致。在持續改善的企業文化驅動下，我們預計在 2026 年將進一步擴大這些利潤率。

Turning to slide 5, Food Equipment delivered revenue growth of 4%, with organic growth of 1%, as equipment was flat, offset by 3% growth in service. By region, North America was flat with institutional end markets up in the high single-digits, offset by restaurants down also in the high single-digits. Retail was a bright spot of nearly 5%, and the international business grew 2%, with Europe up 2%.

翻到第 5 張投影片，食品設備業務收入成長 4%，其中有機成長 1%，設備業務成長持平，但服務業務成長 3%，抵銷了設備業務的成長。按地區劃分，北美市場整體持平，機構終端市場實現了接近兩位數的成長，但被同樣接近兩位數的餐飲業下滑所抵消。零售業成長近 5%，成為一大亮點；國際業務成長 2%，其中歐洲成長 2%。

Test & Measurement and Electronics had a solid quarter. Revenue up 6% and organic revenue up 2%. Test & Measurement was up 3% and Electronics was flat against the tough comparison year over year. Notably, we began to see a positive pick-up in semiconductor and electronics activity with our semi-related businesses up mid-single-digits in the quarter. Operating margins improved by 110 basis points to 28.1%.

測試測量和電子產品業務本季表現穩健。營收成長 6%，有機營收成長 2%。測試與測量業務成長了 3%，而電子產品業務在同比基數較高的情況下保持持平。值得注意的是，我們開始看到半導體和電子產品業務出現積極回暖，本季半導體相關業務實現了個位數中段的成長。營業利益率提高了110個基點，達到28.1%。

Moving on to slide 6, Welding revenue grew 3% with organic growth of 2% in the fourth quarter. Equipment was up 4% and while consumables were flat, filler metals were up in the high single-digits. Regionally, North America was up 4%, while international declined 5% against the tough comparison of 9% last year. Notably, operating margin reached 33.3%, a 210 basis points improvement.

接下來看第 6 張投影片，焊接業務收入在第四季度成長了 3%，其中有機成長為 2%。設備價格上漲了 4%，而耗材價格持平，填充金屬價格則上漲了接近兩位數。從區域來看，北美地區成長了 4%，而國際市場則下降了 5%，與去年 9% 的年增幅相比，情況十分嚴峻。值得注意的是，營業利潤率達到 33.3%，提高了 210 個基點。

Polymers & Fluids had a strong top line quarter with 5% organic growth supported by new product launches in automotive aftermarket which grew 5%. Polymers was up 4% and Fluids grew 6%. On a geographic basis, North America was up 5% and international grew 4%. Operating margin expanded 110 basis points to 29%.

聚合物和流體業務季度營收強勁成長，有機成長率達 5%，這得益於汽車售後市場新產品的推出，該產品成長了 5%。聚合物產品成長 4%，流體產品成長 6%。從地理上看，北美成長了 5%，國際成長了 4%。營業利益率成長110個基點至29%。

Turning to slide 7. In Construction Products, organic growth was down 4%. Regionally, North America was down 4% with residential renovation down 5%, while commercial construction was up 5%. Europe was down 5%, and Australia and New Zealand was flat. Despite the top line challenge, the team successfully expanded margins by 100 basis points to 29%.

翻到第7張投影片。建築產品產業的有機成長率下降了 4%。從區域來看，北美地區下降了 4%，其中住宅翻新下降了 5%，而商業建築則上升了 5%。歐洲股市下跌5%，澳洲和紐西蘭股市持平。儘管面臨營收的挑戰，但團隊成功地將利潤率提高了 100 個基點，達到 29%。

Specialty Products, revenue increased 4% and organic revenue was up 1%. Equipment growth was particularly strong up 12% and consumables were down 2% in the quarter. North America was flat and international grew 3%.

特種產品營收成長 4%，有機收入成長 1%。本季設備成長尤為強勁，成長了 12%，而消耗品則下降了 2%。北美市場持平，國際市場成長3%。

Moving to side 8 and full-year 2025 results. Our global teams continue to execute at a high level, enabling us to consistently outperform our end markets and expand margins to deliver solid financial results in a mixed macro environment.

移至第 8 頁，查看 2025 年全年業績。我們的全球團隊持續保持高水準的執行力，使我們能夠持續超越終端市場，擴大利潤率，從而在複雜多變的宏觀環境下取得穩健的財務表現。

Throughout 2025, we maintained our focus on maximizing ITW's growth and performance over the long term as we invested close to $800 million in high-return internal projects to accelerate organic growth and sustain productivity in our highly profitable core businesses. At the same, we increased our dividend for the 62nd consecutive year, and we returned a total of $3.3 billion to shareholders.

2025 年全年，我們始終專注於最大限度地提高 ITW 的長期成長和業績，為此，我們投資了近 8 億美元用於高回報的內部項目，以加速有機成長並維持我們高利潤核心業務的生產力。同時，我們連續第 62 年提高了股息，總共向股東返還了 33 億美元。

Moving to slide 9 and our guidance for full-year 2026. ITW is well-positioned to deliver meaningful progress on both the top and bottom lines in 2026. Per our usual process, our total revenue projection of 2% to 4% and organic growth projection of 1% to 3% is based on current levels of demand adjusted for typical seasonality. At ITW, growth is high-quality, meaning it is delivered at attractive incremental margins in the mid to high 40s for 2026.

接下來請看第 9 張投影片，以及我們對 2026 年全年的展望。ITW 已做好充分準備，將在 2026 年在營收和利潤方面取得實質進展。按照我們通常的流程，我們對總收入增長 2% 至 4% 的預測以及對有機增長 1% 至 3% 的預測，是基於當前需求水平並根據典型的季節性因素進行調整。在 ITW，成長是高品質的，這意味著到 2026 年，成長將以 40% 到 40% 的可觀增量利潤率實現。

In terms of overall profitability, we expect operating margin to improve by approximately 100 basis points, to a range of 26.5% to 27.5%. This includes 100 basis points contribution from our enterprise initiatives which provides margin expansion that is largely independent of volume. We're projecting a GAAP EPS range of $11.00 to $11.40, representing 7% growth at the $11.20 midpoint.

就整體獲利能力而言，我們預計營業利潤率將提高約 100 個基點，達到 26.5% 至 27.5% 的區間。這其中包括我們企業舉措帶來的 100 個基點的貢獻，這些舉措帶來的利潤率擴張在很大程度上與銷售無關。我們預計 GAAP 每股收益範圍為 11.00 美元至 11.40 美元，其中點 11.20 美元代表 7% 的成長。

Regarding the cadence for the year, we expect the first-half/second-half EPS split of approximately 47% and 53% consistent with 2025. Factoring in typical seasonality, Q1 EPS should contribute roughly 23% of the full year total. Lastly, we expect free cash flow conversion to net income of greater than 100% and plan to buy back approximately $1.5 billion of our shares in 2026.

關於今年的節奏，我們預計上半年/下半年每股盈餘比例約為 47% 和 53%，與 2025 年的情況一致。考慮到典型的季節性因素，第一季每股收益應佔全年總額的約 23%。最後，我們預計自由現金流轉化為淨收入的比例將超過 100%，並計劃在 2026 年回購約 15 億美元的股票。

Turning to our final slide, slide 10. All seven segments are projecting high-quality organic growth based on current run rates adjusted for seasonality. And every segment is well-positioned to outperform its respective end markets again in 2026. Consistent with ITW's continuous improvement, never-satisfied mindset, all segments are also projecting margin improvement supported by another year of solid contributions from our enterprise initiatives.

接下來是最後一張投影片，第 10 張投影片。根據經季節性調整後的當前運行速度，所有七個業務板塊均預計實現高品質的內生成長。2026 年，每個細分市場都做好了充分準備，再次超越各自的終端市場。秉承 ITW 不斷改進、永不滿足的精神，所有業務部門預計利潤率也將有所提高，這得益於我們企業各項舉措在過去一年中的穩健貢獻。

In summary, all seven segments are heading into 2026 well-positioned to deliver solid organic growth with industry-leading profitability and incremental margins.

總而言之，所有七個業務板塊都已做好充分準備，進入 2026 年，將實現穩健的內生增長，並擁有行業領先的盈利能力和增量利潤率。

With that, Erin, I'll turn it back to you.

艾琳，那麼，我就把麥克風交還給你了。

Thank you, Michael. Regina, I think we're ready to open the queue for questions, please.

謝謝你，麥可。Regina，我想我們可以開始接受提問了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

安迪‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團。

Good morning, everyone. Chris and Michael, so Test & Measurement within the segment looks like it did improve meaningfully in Q4. You called out the commentary on semicon. It's been improving for you again, which is good to hear. You've had a couple of maybe, I'll call it, head fakes on semicon so you're seeing a more definitive turn now and are you seeing a bit more of an unlock of your CapEx businesses, in general, in terms of growth?

各位早安。Chris 和 Michael 表示，該部門的測試與測量工作在第四季似乎有了顯著改善。你指出了半導體產業的評論。聽到你的情況又好轉了，真是太好了。半導體領域可能出現了一些，我姑且稱之為“假動作”，但現在你看到了一個更明確的轉變，你是否看到你的資本支出業務在增長方面總體上有了更大的釋放？

Yeah. Again, in general, as you said, Test & Measurement had a pretty solid quarter after what was a pretty challenging year. You might remember middle of the year, we had pretty much a CapEx freeze related to the the China shipments for two quarters. And so we certainly saw an improvement in bookings in general industrial here in Q4. As Michael mentioned, we also saw an improvement in demand for semi-electronics and used the context that semi is about 15% of Test & Measurement, just to give you a perspective.

是的。再次強調，正如你所說，測試與測量部門在經歷了充滿挑戰的一年後，本季表現相當穩健。你可能還記得，年中時，我們與中國出貨相關的資本支出幾乎凍結了兩個季度。因此，我們確實看到第四季度一般工業領域的預訂量有所改善。正如麥可所提到的，我們也看到了對半導體電子產品的需求有所改善，並指出半導體約佔測試和測量行業的 15%，這只是為了讓您了解情況。

I would say that the semi, at this point, seems sustainable based on what we see right now. But as you said, we had an uptick in Q2, came back down in Q3, but we've seen a recovery in Q4. And I think this is a part of the market where we have very strong competitive advantages, particularly as it relates to semi manufacturing and testing equipment. So whatever happens, we're particularly well-positioned to take share as the end market continues to improve in semi.

就目前來看，我認為半自動模式似乎是可持續的。但正如你所說，我們在第二季度有所增長，第三季度有所下降，但第四季度已經出現復甦。我認為在這個市場領域，我們擁有非常強大的競爭優勢，尤其是在半導體製造和測試設備方面。因此，無論發生什麼，隨著半導體終端市場的持續改善，我們都處於非常有利的地位，可以搶佔市場份額。

Yeah. Maybe just to add beyond that, Andy, the general industrial orders are also improving in Test & Measurement, as well as you've seen the improvement in revenues and our growth rates on the equipment side in Welding. So all of that suggests that we are certainly seeing, I would say, a little bit more than green shoots at this point and meaningful improvement not just in sales but also orders. And backlog is looking pretty good at this point. And so we got some pretty good momentum going into 2026 as reflected in the guidance that we gave for those two segments.

是的。安迪，或許我還要補充一點，測試與測量領域的一般工業訂單也在改善，正如你所看到的，焊接設備方面的收入和增長率也有所提高。所以所有這些都表明，我們目前看到的不僅僅是復甦的跡象，而且不僅是銷售額，訂單量也出現了實質的改善。目前來看，積壓訂單的情況相當不錯。因此，我們在進入 2026 年時獲得了相當不錯的發展勢頭，這體現在我們針對這兩個業務板塊給出的業績指引中。

Yeah. That's great to hear, guys. And then when we think about margin expansion across your businesses in '26, I know you expected in all segments. Normally, I would think we just model higher incrementals where you're modeling higher growth. But you, for instance, had really good margin performance in Construction again in Q4. And there is metals inflation out there. So any more advice on how to think about margin performance across the segments?

是的。聽到這個消息真是太好了，夥計們。然後，當我們考慮 2026 年貴公司各業務的利潤率擴張時，我知道您期望所有業務板塊都能實現利潤率擴張。通常情況下，我認為我們應該對更高的增量進行建模，因為你模擬的是更高的成長。但例如，你們在第四季的建築業務利潤率表現又非常好。而且目前金屬價格也有通膨。那麼，關於如何看待各業務板塊的利潤率表現，您還有其他建議嗎？

Yeah. I would just say -- I'll go back to our prepared remarks there, Andy, we expect, based on bottoms-up planning with our segments, based on having a chance to review the enterprise initiative savings, the actual projects for 2026, we expect every segment to improve their operating margins in 2026. And the biggest driver, as I think you pointed out, will be the enterprise initiatives again. So about 100 basis points from initiatives.

是的。我只想說——安迪，我還是回到我們準備好的發言稿吧，我們預計，基於我們各業務部門自下而上的規劃，基於有機會審查企業計劃節省的資金以及 2026 年的實際項目，我們預計每個業務部門在 2026 年的營業利潤率都會有所提高。正如你所指出的，最大的驅動力將再次來自企業舉措。因此，這些舉措帶來了大約 100 個基點。

And then, also, there is some positive operating leverage at incremental margins that, at this point, are quite a bit higher than what we put up historically, as I said, in that mid to high 40s. So maybe that's a way to think about the margin improvement for each one of the segments in 2026.

此外，目前增量利潤率也比我們過去設定的水平高出不少，正如我所說，在 40% 到 50% 之間，這帶來了一些積極的經營槓桿效應。所以，這或許是思考 2026 年各個細分市場利潤率提升的一種方法。

Now I will say this, we do have three segments now that are above 30%. And so maybe you'll see a little bit less of improvement in those segments relative to the ones like Auto that have been putting up some meaningful operating margin improvement. Test & Measurement as well that still have a ways to go to get to Test & Measurement to that high 20%, 30% level.

現在我要說的是，我們目前有三個細分市場的成長率超過 30%。因此，與汽車等業務板塊相比，這些板塊的改善幅度可能會略小一些，因為汽車板塊的營業利潤率已經實現了顯著提高。測試與測量方面，距離達到 20%、30% 的高水準還有很長的路要走。

An improved CBI is the other driver of increased margins. Yeah. As you know, as we've talked about, the CBI progress is really encouraging, obviously, not just as a contributor to growth, but all of these new products that are coming in are coming in at higher margins. And so that's really the key to unlocking margin improvement on a go-forward basis, particularly in places like Automotive OEM.

提高 CBI 是利潤率成長的另一個驅動因素。是的。如您所知，正如我們之前討論過的，CBI 的進展確實令人鼓舞，顯然，這不僅有助於成長，而且所有這些新產品的利潤率都更高。因此，這才是真正能夠持續提高利潤率的關鍵，尤其是在汽車OEM等產業。

Appreciate all the color, guys. Thank you.

夥計們，好好欣賞這些色彩吧。謝謝。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛集團。

Good morning. Can we touch on the price/cost dynamics? Thinking in the slides, you had mentioned that price/cost is expected to be positive in 2026. Can you elaborate on that a little bit? And then also, seeing that resin prices have continued to come down, at this point, what percentage of your COGS is resin?

早安.我們可以談談價格/成本動態嗎​​？根據投影片中的描述，您曾提到預計 2026 年價格/成本將為正值。能再詳細解釋一下嗎？此外，鑑於樹脂價格持續下降，目前樹脂佔你們銷售成本的百分比是多少？

Well, let me start with the first part. I think on price/cost, we've been talking about this for a while in terms of this having normalized after the wave of tariff-related increases we saw last year. So at this point, we're back to where we used to be on price/cost which is slightly favorable for full-year 2026. But not a big driver of the margin improvement. Really, the efforts, particularly the tariffs, have really been centered around not just price but also supply chain, and making sure we do everything we can to mitigate some of these increases, so we don't have to pass them on to our customers. So that's maybe one way to think about price/cost.

好，那就讓我從第一部分開始吧。我認為就價格/成本而言，我們已經討論過一段時間了，在經歷了去年與關稅相關的上漲浪潮之後，價格已經趨於正常化。所以目前，我們在價格/成本方面又回到了以前的水平，這對 2026 年全年來說略微有利。但這並非利潤率提升的主要驅動因素。實際上，這些努力，特別是關稅措施，主要集中在價格和供應鏈上，確保我們盡一切可能減輕這些成長，這樣我們就不必將它們轉嫁給我們的客戶。所以，這或許是思考價格/成本的一種方式。

I'm not sure I have the resin number right in front of me. It's pretty small. I think here, again, I'm not quite sure where you were going with the question, but to the extent that there are increases or decreases in resin cost, those will be reflected in the pricing actions that are taking, again, at the division level where this is more of a meaningful driver of their material costs.

我不太確定我手邊有沒有樹脂編號。它很小。我想，我還是不太明白你這個問題想表達什麼，但是，樹脂成本的增加或減少，都會反映在各部門正在採取的定價措施中，因為這對於各部門來說，是材料成本的一個重要驅動因素。

Yeah. I appreciate the comments, Michael. I guess, I was thinking back in the, I'll call it, 2016 time frame when you guys saw some deflation in resin. And I remember it being like 10% to 15% of your COGS back then. Obviously, that's a long time ago. But there were areas like poly, fluid, areas in auto, injection molding, gas caps, plastic fasteners where you guys did see it benefit. So I was just really trying to think back at that time frame where you had some deflation in your cost structure, but then you have these longer-term contracts and the Auto business where you can get some pricing. And so I was just trying to understand whether that was going to be potentially a meaningful mover to the 2026 bridge.

是的。感謝你的評論，邁克爾。我想，我指的是2016年左右，當時你們經歷了樹脂價格的下跌。我記得當時這部分成本大概佔銷售成本的 10% 到 15%。顯然，那是很久以前的事了。但是，在聚合物、流體、汽車、射出成型、油箱蓋、塑膠緊固件等領域，你們確實看到了它的優勢。所以我一直在努力回想那段時間，當時你們的成本結構出現了一些通貨緊縮，但你們有這些長期合同，而且汽車業務也能提供一些定價。因此，我當時只是想了解這是否會成為推動 2026 年大橋建設的重要因素。

Yeah. Joe, as I said, the longer-term contract dynamic is still there, but the percentage is considerably less than and I think it was 10% to 15% back then, I would say.

是的。喬，正如我所說，長期合約的動態仍然存在，但比例要小得多，我認為當時的比例是 10% 到 15%。

Yeah. And we have a very small portion of our business in Specialty Products that indexed to resin cost. In Automotive, they're typically aren't adjustments made on the way up or on the way down, as you're well aware. So not something that's on our radar here in a meaningful way just because it's not going to be material to the overall performance of the company this year as we sit here today.

是的。我們只有一小部分業務是特種產品，其價格與樹脂成本掛鉤。如您所知，在汽車領域，通常不會在升降過程中進行調整。所以，就目前而言，這並不是我們重點關注的事情，因為它對公司今年的整體業績不會產生實質影響。

Okay. Great. Thank you. I'll get back in the queue. Appreciate it.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。我重新排隊。謝謝。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

朱利安米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning. Maybe just wondered, first off, if you could flesh out any sense of seasonality for this year? Anything unusual or untoward? And maybe remind us what we should expect typically for the first quarter, please?

早安.首先，我只是想問一下，您能否具體談談今年的季節性特徵？有沒有什麼異常或不尋常的事情發生？請問能否提醒一下我們第一季通常應該有哪些預期？

Sure, Julian. I'd say there's really nothing unusual going on this year. We expect the year to unfold in line with typical seasonality. It looks a lot like last year in terms of the quarterly splits. We kind of laid out the first-half/second-half EPS split, 47/53. That's what we did last year. As you know, Q1 always starts out down a few points of sequential revenue drop from Q4 to Q1, like last year, that's about $100 million in revenue from Q4 '25 to Q1 '26. Margins also dropped a little bit in Q1. And we typically end up around 23% of the full-year EPS here in the first quarter. And then in Q2, we see a pick-up again in margins from Q1 to Q2, revenues picked back up again.

當然可以，朱利安。我覺得今年沒什麼特別的事情發生。我們預計今年的發展將符合典型的季節性規律。從季度劃分來看，與去年非常相似。我們已經大致確定了上半年/下半年的每股盈餘比例，47/53。我們去年就是這麼做的。如你所知，第一季總是比第四季下降幾個百分點，就像去年一樣，從 2025 年第四季到 2026 年第一季度，營收下降了約 1 億美元。第一季利潤率也略有下降。通常情況下，第一季每股收益會佔全年每股收益的 23% 左右。然後在第二季度，我們看到利潤率從第一季到第二季再次回升，營收也再次回升。

And every quarter this year, if you model this on a run rate basis, you'll see pretty meaningful revenue growth on a year-over-year basis in line with the guidance that we're giving and that 2% to 4% revenue growth. Every quarter is projected to have margin improvement on a year-over-year basis including in Q1 -- maybe a little bit more modest than Q1. And then it picks up as we go through the year in Q2, Q3, and Q4. Earnings per share grows in line with the guidance range we're giving you here which is 7% of the midpoint.

如果按運行率建模，今年每季的收入都會實現相當可觀的同比增長，這與我們給出的 2% 到 4% 的收入成長預期相符。預計每季的利潤率都將比上年同期有所提高，包括第一季——但可能比第一季略微溫和一些。然後，到了第二季、第三季和第四季度，情況會逐漸好轉。每股盈餘成長符合我們給出的預期範圍，即中點的 7%。

And so that's kind of how we typically play that out. Free cash flow tends to improve as we go through the year. So that's maybe as much as I can give you here.

所以，我們通常就是這樣處理的。隨著時間推移，自由現金流往往會改善。所以，我大概只能告訴你這些了。

That's extremely helpful. Thank you, Michael. And maybe my follow-up, just to understand, you talked about CBI, I think, 2.4% contribution to sales in 2025, and that was 40 bps better than the prior year. Maybe sort of flesh out a little bit the progress there in 2026. What we should expect? And any thoughts on the Product Line Simplification side? Thank you.

這非常有幫助。謝謝你，麥可。我還有一個後續問題，為了更好地理解，您提到了 CBI，我認為，到 2025 年，CBI 對銷售額的貢獻率為 2.4%，比上一年提高了 40 個基點。或許可以稍微詳細闡述 2026 年的進展。我們該期待什麼？關於產品線簡化方面，您有什麼想法？謝謝。

Yeah. So on CBI, as you mentioned, Julian, strong momentum here in '25, encouraged by the progress that we're making across the company and particularly encouraged, I think, by the increased strength of our pipeline of new products. And it's really one of the reasons, we believe, we're outperforming in our end markets.

是的。正如你所提到的，朱利安，CBI 在 2025 年勢頭強勁，這得益於我們在公司各方面取得的進展，尤其值得一提的是，我認為，我們新產品線的不斷增強令人鼓舞。我們相信，這正是我們在終端市場表現優異的原因之一。

A lot of successful products launches this year across the company, I would say, most particularly in Welding, Test & Measurement, Food Equipment, Automotive. Good progress, 40 basis points of improvement in 2025. With continued incremental improvement here in 2026, well on the path to get to 3%-plus by 2030.

今年公司推出了許多成功的新產品，尤其是在焊接、測試與測量、食品設備和汽車領域。進展良好，預計到 2025 年將提高 40 個基點。隨著 2026 年持續穩定改善，到 2030 年預計將達到 3% 以上。

Particularly encouraged, I think, by patent filings. I mean patent filings were up 18% in 2024, up another 9% in 2025. And why that's particularly important is because at ITW, this is a really leading indicator of progress on CBI where our patent filings are more often than not protecting customer solutions. And so an increase in patent activity is often pretty well-correlated with future revenue growth. So really encouraged by everything we're seeing. More progress in 2026.

我認為，專利申請尤其起到了推動作用。我的意思是，2024 年專利申請量增加了 18%，2025 年又成長了 9%。而這一點之所以特別重要，是因為在 ITW，這是衡量 CBI 進展的一個真正領先的指標，我們的專利申請通常是為了保護客戶的解決方案。因此，專利申請活動的增加通常與未來的收入成長有很好的相關性。看到目前的一切，我真的非常鼓舞。2026年將取得更多進展。

It can be a bit lumpy, you can get ups and downs on this. But the trajectory is certainly on its way up. And we're very, very confident at this point that the 3%-plus target is well within our reach.

它可能有點起伏不定，會有起伏。但其發展軌跡無疑正處於上升階段。目前我們非常有信心，3%以上的成長目標完全在我們掌控之中。

And I would not make it -- I think PLS is, to me, a different kind of a conversation. I don't really see a correlation between them. The only overlap between PLS and CBI is that they're both focused on differentiation. PLS is about ensuring that we (inaudible) prune around differentiation and CBI, of course, is pursuing differentiation in a product development context.

而我做不到──我認為PLS對我來說是一種不同的對話。我看不出它們之間有什麼關聯。PLS 和 CBI 唯一的共同點是它們都專注於差異化。PLS 旨在確保我們（聽不清楚）圍繞差異化進行精簡，而 CBI 當然在產品開發環境中追求差異化。

But PLS, for us, in '26, we see as more of a maintenance level, 30 to 50 basis points, that's lower than 2025. But it's very much a bottom-up number. It's really decided on at the divisional level. As we said before, it's a fundamental part of the 80/20 front-to-back and the ongoing strategic review portfolio pruning that goes on in our divisions. And we have, obviously, a very highly developed methodology around this.

但對我們來說，2026 年的 PLS 更像是維持水平，30 到 50 個基點，低於 2025 年的水平。但這很大程度上是一個自下而上統計的數字。這其實是由分區層級決定的。正如我們之前所說，這是我們各部門正在進行的 80/20 前後端策略審查和持續策略組合精簡的基本組成部分。顯然，我們在這方面已經建立了一套非常完善的方法論。

But we get a lot of benefits from PLS implementation. We do it, we get benefit in terms of growth from the standpoint of strategic clarity, ensuring that we're executing on our most important customers and products, and then effectively deploying resources on the back of that.

但是，PLS 的實施為我們帶來了許多好處。我們這樣做，從策略清晰度的角度來看，我們在成長方面受益，確保我們專注於最重要的客戶和產品，然後在此基礎上有效地部署資源。

And then, of course, from a margin improvement standpoint, the cost savings from PLS are a meaningful contributor to the enterprise initiatives that we generate every year. A lot of these projects will have a pay back of less than a year.

當然，從提高利潤率的角度來看，PLS 帶來的成本節約對我們每年開展的企業計畫都做出了重要貢獻。這些項目大多不到一年就能收回成本。

So I think I would not really connect them that much. They're both very active in the company. PLS a little lower this year. But full steam ahead on CBI.

所以我覺得它們之間並沒有那麼大的關聯。他們兩人在公司裡都非常活躍。今年請稍微降低一些。但CBI項目將全力推進。

Yeah. In terms of PLS, a little bit lower year over year; and CBI contribution to revenue a little bit higher on a year-over-year basis. So that's what's supporting the top line guidance that we're giving you today.

是的。就PLS而言，年比略有下降；而CBI對收入的貢獻較去年同期略有上升。這就是我們今天向大家提供的整體指導意見的依據。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

Scott Davis，Melius Research。

Good morning, guys. Congrats on turning the corner here on the top line. The buyback is great, but I have to ask, because you didn't mention M&A at all on the prepared remarks, is that off the table for '26 or you didn't mention it just because it's more opportunistic?

各位早安。恭喜你們在營收方面扭轉頹勢。股票回購固然很好，但我必須問，因為你在準備好的發言稿中完全沒有提到併購，這是不是意味著2026年不考慮併購了，還是因為你覺得併購更具投機性而沒有提及？

It's the latter, Scott. It's certainly on the table for the right companies. As we've often said, we're focused on high-quality acquisitions that really will extend our long-term growth potential, why we've been able to leverage the business model to improved margins. And we review opportunities all the time on an ongoing basis. We're pretty selective given that we genuinely believe we have a pretty compelling organic growth opportunity.

是後者，斯科特。對於合適的公司來說，這當然是一個可以考慮的選項。正如我們常說的，我們專注於高品質的收購，這才能真正擴大我們的長期成長潛力，這也是我們能夠利用商業模式提高利潤率的原因。我們會持續不斷地評估各種機會。鑑於我們真心相信我們擁有非常有吸引力的內生成長機會，所以我們的選擇相當謹慎。

But we're also pretty active in terms of reviewing opportunities and to the extent that we find the right opportunities, while acknowledging, I think, the challenging valuation trends that we're seeing right now, then we will be appropriately aggressive in pursuing them.

但是，我們在評估機會方面也相當積極，一旦發現合適的機會，同時考慮到我們目前看到的具有挑戰性的估值趨勢，我們將採取適當的積極態度去追求這些機會。

We obviously did the MTS deal three or four years ago. It turned out to be a great acquisition, met all of our criteria. Similarly, in the quarter just past, we had won bolt-on acquisition in the semi-manufacturing space, which is all the high-quality growth attributes that we look for. And we're certainly very open to doing more deals like this. And I would say, we're actively prospecting around these deals, but we got to find them, and when we find them, we will do it.

我們顯然是在三、四年前完成了與MTS的交易。事實證明這是一筆非常棒的收購，完全符合我們所有的標準。同樣，在上個季度，我們在半導體製造領域完成了一筆附加收購，這具備了我們所尋找的所有高品質成長屬性。我們當然非常樂意達成更多類似的交易。我想說，我們正在積極尋找這些交易機會，但我們必須先找到它們，找到之後，我們就會去做。

Yeah. I would just add, I agree with what Chris said, I think it's not necessarily an easy time to be a disciplined acquirer and often, the challenge is really around valuation. And we're not going to do deals that don't make sense to ITW which means we're not going to do deals where we can't generate a reasonable risk-adjusted rate of return for our shareholders. So that's been our long-term positioning here and that part of it is not going to change on a go-forward basis.

是的。我只想補充一點，我同意克里斯的說法，我認為對於一個有紀律的收購者來說，現在並非一個容易的時期，而且通常情況下，真正的挑戰在於估值。我們不會進行對 ITW 而言沒有意義的交易，這意味著我們不會進行無法為股東帶來合理的風險調整後回報率的交易。所以，這就是我們在這裡長期的定位，而且這部分在未來不會改變。

And we agree with you that the buyback is a great way to allocate surplus capital to our shareholders. Also contributes, frankly, $0.20 a share or 2% EPS growth on an annual basis. And so that will remain an active share repurchase program and will remain an important part of our capital allocations strategy on a go-forward basis.

我們同意您的觀點，股票回購是向股東分配剩餘資本的好方法。坦白說，這也有助於每股收益每年增長 0.20 美元，即每股收益增長 2%。因此，股票回購計畫將繼續保持積極態勢，並將繼續成為我們未來資本配置策略的重要組成部分。

That's a good answer. Guys, I don't want to beat a dead horse, the CBI stuff is pretty interesting, what does it take to get to 3%? Is it spending more or getting more out of what you have? And the reason why I ask that question is that up 18% and even up 9% patents there, that's a pretty big growth. Do you have to spend more to get to that 3%? What's the gaining factor of bridging that gap?

這是一個很好的答案。各位，我不想老生常談，CBI 的事情很有意思，要達到 3% 需要什麼條件？是花更多錢，還是從現有資源中獲得更多？我之所以問這個問題，是因為那裡的專利數量增加了 18%，甚至增加了 9%，這是一個相當大的成長。要達到那3%的收益率，就必須花更多的錢嗎？彌合這一差距的益處是什麼？

Yeah. It's not spending more, Scott. I think we've been meaningfully investing in a very focused way for a number of years to build up the muscle around this. And really, what's moving the needle is very much the similar approach to what we took on 80/20 front-to-back 10 years ago. And we saw the results that accrued from that. But really, it's about a much higher level of leadership, time, and focus. And certainly, continuing to invest and build capabilities as we had been doing for the last four or five years.

是的。史考特，關鍵不在於花更多的錢。我認為，多年來我們一直在以非常專注的方式進行有意義的投資，以增強這方面的實力。而真正取得進展的，正是我們 10 年前在 80/20 框架下從頭到尾所採取的非常相似的方法。我們看到了由此產生的成果。但實際上，這需要更高水準的領導力、時間投入和專注力。當然，我們也會像過去四、五年一樣，繼續投資並建立能力。

And on that basis, we've seen innovation contribution more than double over the last five years. The capability, that build that we're doing is at the segment level, but also in our divisions. We have lots of great innovation practice around the company. And as we've mentioned on prior calls, we really codified this into a very effective and holistic innovation framework. And we launched that framework in the second half of 2024. Again, this is the exact approach that we took in 80/20 front-toback.

在此基礎上，我們看到過去五年創新貢獻增加了一倍以上。我們正在進行的能力建構不僅體現在業務部門層面，也體現在我們的各個事業部層面。公司內部有許多優秀的創新實踐。正如我們在先前的電話會議中提到的，我們已經將其真正編纂成一個非常有效和全面的創新框架。我們在 2024 年下半年推出了這個框架。再次強調，這正是我們在 80/20 前後比例設計中所採用的方法。

So all that's certainly taken root. We see it in the patent filings. We see it in the yield. We're well on track here to do the 3%-plus. But I think all the pieces are in place, and it's now a question of just building momentum and ensuring we get that consistently high-quality of practice in every part of the country. And that will get us to more than 3%, for sure.

所以這一切都已經生根發芽了。我們在專利申請文件中看到了這一點。我們從產量中就能看出來。我們很有希望實現3%以上的成長目標。但我認為所有條件都已具備，現在的問題只是保持勢頭，並確保我們在全國各地都能獲得持續的高品質實踐。這樣肯定能讓我們超過3%。

Yeah. And I might just add that we've added the CBI metric as one of the key elements in our incentive plans on a go-forward basis. So if you look at the long-term incentive plans here at ITW, in addition to margins, returns, EPS growth, we've added -- or the Board has added CBI yield just in alignment with the overall strategic importance of this metric and this initiative on a go-forward basis.

是的。我還要補充一點，我們已經將 CBI 指標作為未來激勵計畫的關鍵要素之一。因此，如果您查看 ITW 的長期激勵計劃，除了利潤率、回報、每股收益成長之外，我們還增加了——或者說董事會增加了 CBI 收益率，這只是為了與該指標和該計劃在未來發展中的整體戰略重要性保持一致。

Interesting. Thank you, guys. Best of luck this year. I'll pass it on.

有趣的。謝謝大家。祝你今年一切順利。我會轉達的。

Tami Zakaria, J.P. Morgan.

塔米·扎卡里亞，摩根大通。

Good morning. Thank you so much. So the Auto segment growth in China was, I think, about 5%. I think granted builds were also slower in the fourth quarter in China. But anything else to call out there and how are you thinking about growth in Auto in China as you look into 2026?

早安.太感謝了。所以，我認為中國汽車產業的成長率約為 5%。我認為，第四季中國的建築速度也有所放緩。還有什麼需要補充的嗎？展望2026年，您如何看待中國汽車產業的成長？

Yeah. So we see strong growth in China around 2026, largely on the basis of the satisfactory work that we've done on really penetrating the EV space. Electric vehicles for us are very much a source of innovation and growth, what we're seeing from our customers. We've been generally leveraging that EV growth through new product innovation. We made significant investments over the last number of years, targeting and building up our presence in EV.

是的。因此，我們預計到 2026 年左右中國市場將實現強勁成長，這主要得益於我們在真正滲透電動車領域所取得的令人滿意的成果。對我們來說，電動車是創新和成長的重要源泉，這一點我們從客戶那裡也看到了。我們一直以來都是透過新產品創新來利用電動車的成長。過去幾年，我們進行了大量投資，致力於在電動車領域建立和發展我們的業務。

China represents about 65% of world-wide EV builds, and we're growing very nicely there with a very strong position with Chinese OEMs which is now over 70% of the market. So we're really well-positioned. We see the growth in China in Auto is being very sustainable, really on the back of the work we've done on EV, in particular, around CBI related to EV.

中國佔全球電動車產量的約 65%，我們在中國發展勢頭良好，與中國汽車製造商建立了非常強大的合作關係，目前中國汽車製造商的市場份額已超過 70%。所以我們處於非常有利的地位。我們看到中國汽車產業的成長非常永續，這主要得益於我們在電動車領域所做的工作，特別是與電動車相關的CBI（企業與工業）的工作。

I might just add, China has been a great growth story for ITW over the years driven primarily by the Auto OEM business which, as you said, grew 5% in Q4, about 12% for the full year. And the expectation remains the same in terms of outgrowing builds in China, fueled by CBI and (inaudible) growth with the Chinese OEMs, as Chris said. So we'd expect growth in China Auto OEM in that mid to high single-digits.

我還要補充一點，多年來，中國一直是 ITW 成長的一大亮點，這主要得益於汽車 OEM 業務，正如您所說，該業務在第四季度增長了 5%，全年增長了約 12%。正如克里斯所說，人們對中國汽車工業 (CBI) 和中國汽車製造商 (OEM) 的成長（聽不清楚）推動中國汽車產量成長的預期仍然不變。因此，我們預期中國汽車OEM產業的成長率將達到中高個位數。

I'd just make a comment. Overall, on China, up 9% for the full year. Again, strong growth in China in the Auto business. But also, Test & Measurement up high single-digits. Welding up mid-teens. And so the expectation for this year, '26, is that China, which is now about $1.2 billion and 8% of our revenues, will grow in the mid, maybe even in the high single-digits based on what we're seeing for 2026.

我只想說幾句。整體而言，中國市場全年上漲 9%。中國汽車產業再次實現強勁成長。但測試與測量指標也實現了接近兩位數的成長。焊接工作持續到十幾歲中期。因此，我們預計 2026 年中國市場（目前約 12 億美元，占我們收入的 8%）將實現中等甚至接近兩位數的成長，這是根據我們對 2026 年的預測得出的結論。

And I might just add lastly that margins in China, as you know, are the same as everywhere else around the world and as Chris said, we'll continue to invest in China and repatriate cash efficiently to the US as we've done over many years.

最後我還要補充一點，正如你們所知，中國的利潤率與世界其他地方一樣，正如克里斯所說，我們將繼續在中國投資，並像多年來一樣有效地將現金匯回美國。

That is fantastic to hear. Thank you. And staying on the same topic, thanks for all the color around China. How are you thinking about growth in the US or Americas versus Europe as it relates to the 1% to 3% organic growth outlook for the year?

聽到這個消息真是太好了。謝謝。繼續這個話題，感謝你為我們展現了中國豐富多彩的一面。您如何看待美國或美洲與歐洲相比的成長情況，以及這與今年1%至3%的有機成長預期之間的關係？

Yeah. I think one of the things that was certainly encouraging here in the fourth quarter was the organic growth rate in North America up 2%-plus. And we expect about the same, maybe a little bit better than that, based on run rates in 2026. Europe certainly a little bit more challenging. We don't expect much improvement in Europe. And then, Asia Pacific was up 6% last year, primarily China. And we expect, like you said, another kind of meaningful contribution from Asia Pacific and China in the mid single-digit range.

是的。我認為第四季最令人鼓舞的事情之一是北美地區的有機成長率超過了 2%。根據 2026 年的運行率，我們預計結果大致相同，甚至可能略好一些。歐洲的情況當然更具挑戰性。我們預計歐洲的情況不會有太大改善。去年亞太地區成長了 6%，主要得益於中國市場的成長。正如你所說，我們預期亞太地區和中國將做出另一種有意義的貢獻，貢獻幅度在個位數中段。

North America, really, I'd say, pretty encouraging. Europe stays about the same. And Asia Pacific, up in the mid-single-digits. China up in the mid, maybe high single-digits. And so that's how you get to that 1% to 3% organic growth. And like we said earlier, again, more contribution from CBI, less of a headwind to top line from PLS, and you get to that 1% to 3% organic, 2% to 4% revenue, for the full year.

北美的情況確實令人鼓舞。歐洲基本保持不變。亞太地區增幅達個位數中段。中國可能會升至個位數中高點。這就是實現 1% 到 3% 的自然成長的方法。正如我們之前所說，如果 CBI 的貢獻更大，PLS 對營收的阻力更小，那麼全年就能實現 1% 到 3% 的有機增長，2% 到 4% 的收入增長。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Jamie Cook, Truist Securities.

Jamie Cook，Truist Securities。

Good morning. Two questions, I guess just my first one, the sequential revenue growth in the quarter, the 4% relative to normally, 2%. Just color around that. Do you think that's more ITW-specific, i.e. CBI is getting more traction or would you say it's probably more just industrial markets getting better with PMI readings starting to get better, above 50, last month?

早安.我有兩個問題，第一個問題是關於本季的環比收入成長，4% 相對於通常的 2%。就在周圍塗上顏色。您認為這更多是ITW特有的現象，即CBI獲得了更多關注，還是您認為這可能更多是工業市場好轉，PMI讀數上個月開始好轉並超過50？

And then, my second question, Michael, just on the incremental margins for 2026, obviously implied very strong, you said, mid to high 40s. That's above your 35% to 40% medium term target on okay-organic growth. So I'm just wondering if there's an underappreciated margin story or incremental margins can be structurally higher, maybe it's CBI, but just trying to piece that above-average incremental margins versus your target on 1.5% organic growth, I don't know, it just seems better than what I always thought. Thank you.

然後，我的第二個問題，邁克爾，是關於 2026 年的增量利潤率，你顯然暗示著非常強勁的成長，在 40% 到 40% 之間。這高於你設定的中期有機成長目標（35% 至 40%）。所以我想知道是否存在被低估的利潤率成長點，或者增量利潤率在結構上可能更高，也許是 CBI 的問題，但我只是想把高於平均水平的增量利潤率與 1.5% 的有機增長目標聯繫起來，我不知道，但這似乎比我一直以來所想的要好。謝謝。

Yeah. Pretty good, right? Let me talk about incrementals, but I'm glad you asked, by the way. I think historically, we've been in that 35% to 40% range. That's what our long-term TSR algorithm, it's based on 35% to 40%. If you look at what we've been putting up over the last few quarters with limited growth, frankly, starting to improve; and when we look at the plan for 2026, that's where we get to the mid to high 40s.

是的。還不錯吧？讓我來談談增量，不過很高興你問了這個問題。我認為從歷史數據來看，我們一直處於 35% 到 40% 的範圍內。這就是我們的長期 TSR 演算法，它基於 35% 到 40% 的比例。如果你看看我們過去幾個季度取得的成績，儘管增長有限，但坦白說，情況已經開始好轉；當我們展望 2026 年的計劃時，我們預計目標將達到 40 多萬。

We can't really think of a reason why this wouldn't be sustainable over the long-term. I mean, we've done a lot of work around the portfolio; over a decade of enterprise initiatives; the margin profile, variable margin, gross margin, all of those things, the quality of the portfolio has never been better than it is today. And then you add on top of that accelerating contribution from new products that all are coming in at higher margins.

我們實在想不出有什麼理由說明這種做法長遠來看是不可持續的。我的意思是，我們在產品組合方面做了很多工作；十多年來，我們推行了多項企業計劃；利潤率、可變利潤率、毛利率等等，所有這些方面，產品組合的質量都達到了前所未有的高度。此外，新產品不斷增長的利潤率也帶來了持續成長的收益。

And then maybe most importantly, as Chris said and I mentioned in my remarks, we are doing all of this while we are investing in ITW to kind of maximize the long-term performance from a growth and profitability standpoint. So about $800 million this year in our organic growth initiatives, in our productivity initiatives, the enterprise initiatives.

而且，正如克里斯所說，也正如我在發言中提到的，我們做這一切的同時，也在投資 ITW，以期從增長和盈利能力的角度最大限度地提高其長期業績。所以今年我們在有機成長計畫、生產力提升計畫和企業發展計畫中投入了約 8 億美元。

And so it's not like we're holding back on investments. All of this is happening -- these incrementals in the mid to high 40s are happening while we're fully funding all the quality projects that we have available to us inside the the company. So I think that's -- Anything (inaudible)?

所以，我們並沒有減少投資。這一切都在發生——這些增量在 40 多美元到 50 美元之間，與此同時，我們也正在為公司內部所有可用的優質項目提供充足的資金。所以我覺得那就是——任何東西（聽不清楚）？

Yeah. I agree with everything Michael said. I would just highlight, Jamie, this is one of the side benefits of PLS. You do PLS for enough time, what happens is you get improvement in the quality of the portfolio. PLS is effectively a portfolio pruning exercise. And so what's really driving these incrementals and the reason that we fundamentally believe there are no sustainability in the mid-40s comes from improvement in the quality of our portfolio from many years of thoughtful PLS, coupled with a continuous improvement in the practice of the business model against that portfolio.

是的。我完全同意麥可說的話。傑米，我只想強調一點，這是PLS帶來的額外好處之一。如果你花足夠的時間進行PLS（專業學習服務），你的作品集品質就會提高。PLS其實是一種投資組合精簡策略。因此，真正推動這些成長的因素，以及我們從根本上認為40%以上水平無法持續的原因，在於多年來深思熟慮的PLS（投資組合管理服務）提高了我們投資組合的質量，再加上針對該投資組合的商業模式實踐不斷改進。

So you got those two things working together, and that's ultimately why these incrementals have now shifted from what was mid-30s to what we now believe in the mid-40s.

所以，這兩件事結合起來，最終導致這些增量從之前的 30 多度增加到了我們現在認為的 40 多度。

Right. And then I think, Jamie, on your other question on the sequentials from Q3 to Q4, it was pretty broad-based, nothing really stood out which suggests that this is really maybe a little bit of tailwind from the markets after a long time, years of headwinds. It was more pronounced in the segments that have a higher contribution from CBI. That is true.

正確的。然後，傑米，關於你提出的第三季度到第四季度的連續性問題，我認為情況相當廣泛，沒有什麼特別突出的地方，這表明在經歷了多年的逆風之後，這或許真的是市場帶來的一絲順風。在 CBI 貢獻較大的細分市場中，這種現象更為明顯。沒錯。

We didn't talk about Polymers & Fluids. But high contribution from new products in the Automotive aftermarket. But also in the Fluids business, the part of that business that's really centered aronud biopharma. And then in the performance polymer side, it was growth in China, again, taking advantage of the EV growth that Chris talked about earlier.

我們沒有討論聚合物和流體。但汽車售後市場新產品的貢獻很大。但也有流體業務，尤其是以生物製藥為中心的部分業務。而在高性能聚合物方面，中國市場再次實現了成長，這得益於克里斯之前提到的電動車市場的成長。

Test & Measurement, also seeing a pickup here sequentially from Q3 to Q4. They typically do. Maybe a little bit more pronounced than usual, and I think that's part of the semi pick-up that we talked about. We saw that start to come through, not just in order activity, but also an actual sales here in the fourth quarter. So it feels pretty good. Good momentum going into 2026, and off to a pretty good start, so far.

測試與測量業務也從第三季到第四季出現了環比成長。他們通常會這樣做。可能比平常更明顯一些，我認為這就是我們之前提到的半拖車現象的一部分。我們看到，這種趨勢不僅體現在訂單活動上，而且在第四季的實際銷售額上也開始顯現出來。感覺還不錯。進入2026年勢頭良好，目前為止開局也相當不錯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Steven Fisher, UBS.

史蒂文費雪，瑞銀集團。

Thanks. Good morning. If I take out the 100 basis points of enterprise initiatives, it seems like the margins are maybe really only flattish. I'm curious why they wouldn't be higher with the positive organic growth and the high incrementals you're talking about. Maybe the incrementals are a function of the enterprise initiatives. But why isn't the margins higher with that positive organic growth?

謝謝。早安.如果剔除企業措施帶來的 100 個基點，利潤率似乎真的只是略顯平緩而已。我很好奇，既然有你所說的正向自然成長和高增量，為什麼他們的成長率不會更高呢？或許這些增量都是企業各項舉措的結果。但為什麼在有機成長如此強勁的情況下，利潤率卻沒有更高呢？

Yeah. That's a good question, Steven. First, let me just say, it's hard to quibble with margins, I think, that are in that 26% to 27% range to begin with. But if you look at 2026, there's definitely some positive operating leverage given the midpoint of our revenue guidance here, that 3% range, 2% organic. We're getting about 100 basis points from the enterprise initiatives price/cost, it's slightly favorable.

是的。史蒂文，你問得好。首先，我想說的是，利潤率本來就在 26% 到 27% 之間，我覺得很難對此挑剔。但如果你展望 2026 年，考慮到我們收入預期的中點（3% 的範圍，2% 的有機成長），肯定會有一些正面的經營槓桿效應。企業計劃的價格/成本比約為 100 個基點，略微有利。

And then what you're seeing is an offset which is primarily inflation in some of our employee-related costs. So these are wages, health and welfare benefits. And there's also some investment that Chris talked about to really accelerate the organic growth rate inside the company and maintain high levels of productivity inside the company. So those are really -- we've talked about this category before and so that's the offset to what we're giving you.

然後你看到的是部分抵消，這主要是由於我們一些與員工相關的成本的通貨膨脹造成的。這些包括工資、醫療和福利待遇。克里斯也提到了一些投資，旨在真正加快公司內部的有機成長速度，並維持公司內部的高生產力水準。所以這些實際上是——我們之前討論過這個類別，所以這是我們提供給你們的東西的補償。

And I might just say, we're giving you a range of margins, right? So 26.5% to 27.5%, about 100 basis points of improvement. And if a short-cycle demand recovery really materializes and we get organic growth rates moving up in our range here at the incrementals, we're talking about, you're absolutely right, we should expect to see higher margins in 2026.

我可能會說，我們給你提供了一系列利潤率，對吧？因此，從 26.5% 提高到 27.5%，大約提高了 100 個基點。如果短期需求復甦真的實現，而我們在這裡所說的增量有機成長率上升到我們預期的水平，那麼你說的完全正確，我們應該預期在 2026 年看到更高的利潤率。

Super helpful. And then just maybe a clarification. Did I hear you say that commercial side of Construction in North America was up in the quarter? And I guess, if so, how surprised were you to see that? Were you already seeing that in your run rates at the start of the quarter? Or is that something that changed? And are you seeing that carry forward? I mean you do have a pretty big inflection in Construction in '26.

非常有用。然後或許還需要澄清一下。我剛剛是不是​​聽到你說北美建築業的商業部分在本季有所成長？我想，如果真是這樣，你看到的時候是不是很驚訝呢？在本季初，你的營運率是否已經呈現出這種趨勢？或者說，情況已經改變了？你是否看到了這種延續性？我的意思是，1926 年建築業確實出現了一個相當大的轉捩點。

Yeah. I'd say it's a fairly small portion of our business. Look at North America, about 20% of our sales are into the commercial side of things. They can be a little bit lumpy. There was some pick-up in activity, as you might expect, related to things like data centers, for example, which sounds very exciting. But keep in mind what I just said, this is a pretty small part of the company. But certainly encouraging to see a pickup on the commercial side.

是的。我認為這只是我們業務中很小的一部分。以北美為例，我們約有 20% 的銷售額來自商業領域。它們可能有點凹凸不平。正如你所預料的那樣，與資料中心等領域相關的活動有所增加，這聽起來非常令人興奮。但請記住我剛才所說的話，這只是公司的一小部分。但商業方面的復甦無疑令人鼓舞。

While the residential side, perhaps our most interest-rate sensitive business, remains really stuck in some pretty challenging end markets. Housing starts down in the mid-single-digits. But perhaps, 2026 could be the year this really turns around on the residential side. That's not included in our guidance, but if it were to happen, we would be really well-positioned to take advantage of that.

而住宅業務（或許是我們最受利率影響的業務）仍然深陷一些相當具有挑戰性的終端市場。房屋開工量下降至個位數中段。但或許，2026 年會是住宅市場真正迎來轉機的一年。雖然我們的指導方針中沒有包含這方面的內容，但如果真的發生了，我們將能夠很好地利用這一點。

Yeah. The improvement drivers for '26 are more related to less PLS and more CBI.

是的。2026 年的改進驅動因素更多地與減少 PLS 和增加 CBI 有關。

Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

好的。完美的。謝謝。

Sabrina Abrams, Bank of America.

Sabrina Abrams，美國銀行。

Good morning, everyone. I wanted to follow up on something that I believe you said in response to Julian's question. If every quarter we have revenue growing 2% to 4%, I think the FX tailwind, just based on the (inaudible), FX tailwind is pretty material in Q1 and then it tails off quite a bit in the remaining quarters of the year. So would it be fair to think that the organic portion of growth accelerates as we move through the year? Just trying to think if that assumption is correct and what's underlying the assumption. Thank you.

各位早安。我想就您之前在回答朱利安的問題時提到的一些事情再補充一點。如果每季我們的營收成長 2% 到 4%，我認為僅根據（聽不清楚）外匯利好因素來看，第一季的外匯利好因素相當顯著，然後在今年剩餘的幾個季度中會大幅減弱。那麼，我們可以認為，隨著時間的推移，有機成長部分會加速嗎？我只是想弄清楚這個假設是否正確，以及這個假設背後的原因是什麼。謝謝。

Yeah. I think that's definitely, as you pointed out, a little bit more currency tailwind here in the first quarter. There is positive organic growth in Q1, but it's not as high as it is in Q2, Q3, and Q4. So maybe that's a way to think about it.

是的。我認為正如你所指出的，第一季匯率確實會帶來一些利多因素。第一季有機成長為正，但不如第二季、第三季和第四季那麼高。或許可以這樣思考。

Thank you. And then, I don't think anyone asked on this segment, but Polymers & Fluids had a nice surprise to the upside, at least, relative to what I was modeling. And it seems that it was pretty broad-based across the auto aftermarket and the fluids and polymer side. Anything to call out there that you're seeing from an end market demand standpoint that may be trended differently versus expectation? And it seems that the guide for 1% to 3% next year would be quite conservative given the run rate, what we saw in Q4, so just any color there would be great. Thank you.

謝謝。然後，雖然我覺得這部分內容裡沒人問過，但聚合物與流體領域出現了一個令人驚訝的上漲，至少相對於我之前建模的情況而言是如此。而且，這種現像似乎在汽車售後市場以及流體和聚合物領域都相當普遍。從終端市場需求角度來看，您觀察到的趨勢是否與預期不同？鑑於第四季度的成長率，明年 1% 到 3% 的預期似乎相當保守，所以任何顏色的預期都很好。謝謝。

Yeah. We did actually talk about this a couplo of minutes ago, but just real quick. A big contribution from CBI new products in the automotive aftermarket, specifically in the care care business. If you're on the market for wiper blades. Rain-X wiper blades were up meaningfully here in the fourth quarter with the launch of a new wiper blade in that space.

是的。我們幾分鐘前確實簡單談過這件事。CBI 的新產品為汽車售後市場，特別是汽車保養業務做出了巨大貢獻。如果您正在尋找雨刷片。由於推出了一款新的雨刷片，Rain-X 雨刷片的銷量在第四季度出現了顯著增長。

In China, specifically, Polymers, continues to gain share on the automotive EV side of things, up double digits, more than 10% in the fourth quarter. And then, the reagents business that's part of Fluids, which is really focused around biopharma, was up more than 20%. And again, what you're seeing is more CBI, a little less PLS. And we're expecting more of the same here as we go into 2026.

尤其是在中國，聚合物在汽車電動車領域的市佔率持續成長，第四季實現了兩位數的成長，超過 10%。此外，隸屬於流體業務板塊的試劑業務（主要圍繞生物製藥）成長超過 20%。再次強調，你現在看到的是更多的 CBI，而 PLS 則有所減少。我們預計，進入 2026 年，這種情況還會持續下去。

Got it. I guess just as a quick follow-up then, just want to understand why guiding for deceleration from Q4 next year?

知道了。那麼，我再補充一點，為什麼預計明年第四季開始成長速度將放緩？

Well, I'm not sure that's really the case, I mean, I think we're guiding 1% to 3%. If you look at the performance for the full year this year in Polymers & Fluids, it was a little bit different than the fourth quarter. And then, obviously, we're not going to launch the same amount of new products every quarter. So maybe the fourth quarter was a little bit higher from a CBI standpoint than the typical run rate. So maybe that's a way to think about it.

嗯，我不確定情況是否真的如此，我的意思是，我認為我們預期的成長幅度在 1% 到 3% 之間。如果看看今年聚合物和流體業務的全年業績，會發現它與第四季的業績略有不同。而且，很顯然，我們不可能每季都推出相同數量的新產品。所以從 CBI 的角度來看，第四節的 CBI 可能比通常的運行率略高一些。或許可以這樣思考。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Raso, Evercore.

David Raso，Evercore。

Hi. I wonder if you'd help us. We're all sort of dancing around the organic cadence. How is January playing out versus the 1% to 3% guide? It just feels like there's a lot of -- filler metals up high single-digit, semis up mid single. it feels like you're off to a relatively strong start to the year based off those cyclical trends exiting or am I misreading the first quarter organic is at the full-year guide or even above? Any color in January would be great.

你好。不知道您是否願意幫幫我們。我們都在圍繞著大自然的節奏翩翩起舞。1月份的實際表​​現與1%至3%的預期相比如何？感覺很多金屬價格都上漲了——填充金屬漲幅接近兩位數，半導體漲幅也達到了個位數中段。基於這些週期性趨勢的結束，感覺今年開局相對強勁，或者我理解錯了？第一季的有機銷售額是否達到了全年預期，甚至更高？一月任何顏色都好看。

And the company inventory, it went down a little bit sequentially -- I mean, it moves around a lot, I appreciate that, but it went down to where -- it wasn't even up year over year more than sales. And to me, that could be a little tell of, hey, we think things are picking up you'd be building some inventory. So just trying to square all that together. Thank you.

公司庫存環比略有下降——我的意思是，庫存波動很大，我理解這一點，但下降的幅度甚至沒有比銷售額的同比增幅更大。對我來說，這可能暗示著，嘿，我們認為情況正在好轉，所以你們會儲備一些庫存。所以，我只是想把這一切理順一下。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, David. I think just on the inventory, that's kind of the typical cadence inventory levels. Inventories do come down towards the year end. I can tell you, there's nothing going on in terms of lowering inventory levels because we expect lower growth. I think, as a matter of fact, if you go back to the middle of the year, in some cases like Test & Measurement that Chris talked about with some of the tariffs, to mitigate the risk from a supply chain standpoint, we actually added inventory in a few segments to mitigate that risk. So nothing unusual really from an inventory standpoint in the fourth quarter.

是的。謝謝你，大衛。我認為就庫存而言，這算是典型的庫存水準。庫存會在年底前下降。我可以明確地告訴大家，由於我們預期成長放緩，因此不會採取任何降低庫存水準的措施。事實上，我認為，如果你回顧一下年中的情況，在某些情況下，例如克里斯提到的測試與測量業務，由於一些關稅問題，為了從供應鏈的角度降低風險，我們實際上在一些領域增加了庫存來降低這種風險。所以從庫存角度來看，第四季並沒有什麼特別之處。

I think January is off to where, I can say, we're right on track to where we thought we were going to be. I did say that the revenue growth guide for this year, if you look at it on a quarterly basis, we will be up if things stay the way are and obviously, it's a pretty dynamic environment in that 3% to 4% range.

我認為一月份的開局不錯，可以說我們正朝著預期的目標穩步前進。我的確說過，如果按季度來看，今年的營收成長預期是，如果一切照舊，我們將實現成長。顯然，3%到4%的成長區間是一個相當不穩定的環境。

The organic growth rate is slightly lower in the first quarter relative to Q2, Q3, Q4. That's typical seasonality based on what we know today. So it's not going to be 3%, 4% organic growth in the first quarter based on current run rates, but it will be positive organic growth.

第一季的有機成長率略低於第二季、第三季和第四季。根據我們目前的認知，這是典型的季節性現象。因此，按照目前的成長速度，第一季不會達到 3% 或 4% 的有機成長，但會實現正的有機成長。

We have a little bit more tailwind from currency at the beginning of the year, just how the comparisons work out. And so that's how you get to a revenue growth rate in Q1 that's maybe closer to the other quarters even though organic is lower. Does that make sense to you?

年初時，匯率方面我們確實有一些利多因素，這只是比較結果造成的。因此，即使有機成長較低，第一季的營收成長率也可能更接近其他季度。你覺得這樣說得通嗎？

Yeah. That's helpful. And semi, I know you said 15% of the business, I think it used to be a little bit bigger but obviously, it's been slower. That incremental margin I feel, historically, when that starts moving, the incrementals, to be fair, the T&M margins were better than I was modeling for the quarter. Is semi a big part of that incremental margin improvement or am I overstating the impact --

是的。那很有幫助。半成品，我知道你說過佔業務的 15%，我認為以前佔比更大一些，但顯然，現在增長速度慢了下來。我認為，從歷史經驗來看，當增量利潤開始成長時，公平地說，T&M 利潤率比我為本季建模的要好。半成品是否在利潤率提升中扮演了重要角色？還是我誇大了其影響？--

No. That is correct. I mean the positioning has always been -- we know this is a cyclical space. And when we are at the bottom of the cycle, we want to be very profitable. And when things are going well, orders are picking up, revenues are picking up, the incrementals come through at above-average levels and above- average levels of profitability. So that's a reasonable assumption.

不。沒錯。我的意思是，定位一直都是──我們知道這是一個循環往復的領域。當經濟週期處於低潮時，我們希望獲得豐厚的利潤。當一切進展順利時，訂單增加，收入增加，增量收入和獲利能力都達到高於平均水準。所以這是一個合理的假設。

Now, it's 15% of Test & Measurement. It's 3% of ITW. But it is a space, as you know, when these cycles start to pick up, you can see some really above-average meaningful growth rates for a period of time. It's too early to tell whether that's what's going on here. But if you look at fab utilization, you look at the order activity, you look at plus-5% attractive margins of Q4, it's looking pretty promising as we just start 2026.

現在，它佔測試與測量的 15%。它佔ITW的3%。但你也知道，當這些週期開始加速時，這個領域會在一段時間內出現一些真正高於平均的顯著成長率。現在判斷事情是否如此還為時過早。但如果你看看晶圓廠的利用率，看看訂單活動，看看第四季超過 5% 的誘人利潤率，那麼在 2026 年伊始，前景看起來相當光明。

One month in, I'll just caution, things can change quickly in this environment. But we feel really good about where we're at. We feel confident in our guidance and well-positioned to deliver some solid results here, both operationally and financially in 2026.

一個月過去了，我只想提醒大家，在這種環境下，情況可能會迅速改變。但我們對現狀感到非常滿意。我們對我們的指導充滿信心，並已做好充分準備，在 2026 年無論在營運或財務方面都能取得一些穩健的成果。

All right. Thank you for the time. Appreciate it.

好的。感謝您抽出時間。謝謝。

And that concludes our question-and-answer session and our call today. Thank you all for joining. You may disconnect at this time.

我們的問答環節和今天的通話到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。