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Operator
Operator
Good afternoon.
午安.
My name is Derek and I'll be your conference facilitator today.
我叫德瑞克,今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。
At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Intel Q4 '04 earnings conference call. [OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS]
此時此刻,我謹歡迎大家參加英特爾 04 年第四季財報電話會議。 [操作員說明]
I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Doug Lusk, Director of Investor Relations.
我現在將會議交給投資者關係總監 Doug Lusk 先生主持。
Sir, you may begin your conference.
先生,您可以開始會議了。
- Director of Investor Relations
- Director of Investor Relations
Thank you and welcome to the Intel fourth quarter earnings conference call.
感謝並歡迎參加英特爾第四季財報電話會議。
Attending from Intel are CFO, Andy Bryant, and President and COO, Paul Otellini.
英特爾財務長安迪布萊恩特 (Andy Bryant) 和總裁兼營運長保羅歐德寧 (Paul Otellini) 出席了會議。
I'd like to remind everyone that the earnings release and this call are available on our IR website at INTC.com.
我想提醒大家,收益發布和本次電話會議可在我們的投資者關係網站 INTC.com 上查看。
For those of you who did not see the earnings release, revenue in the fourth quarter was $9.6 billion and earnings per share were $.33.
對於那些沒有看到收益發布的人來說,第四季度的收入為 96 億美元,每股收益為 0.33 美元。
The fourth quarter earnings report discusses Intel's business outlook and contains forward-looking statements.
第四季財報討論了英特爾的業務前景並包含前瞻性陳述。
These particular forward-looking statements and all other statements that may be made on this call that are not historical facts are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially.
這些特定的前瞻性陳述以及本次電話會議中可能做出的所有其他非歷史事實的陳述都受到許多風險和不確定性的影響,實際結果可能存在重大差異。
Please refer to our press release for more information on the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ.
請參閱我們的新聞稿,以了解有關可能導致實際結果不同的風險因素的更多資訊。
The specific forward-looking statements cover expectations for product mix and demand, revenue, gross margin, expenses, tax rate, interest and other income, capital spending, depreciation and amortization of acquisition related intangibles, and costs.
具體的前瞻性陳述涵蓋了對產品組合和需求、收入、毛利率、費用、稅率、利息和其他收入、資本支出、收購相關無形資產的折舊和攤銷以及成本的預期。
These statements do not reflect the potential impact of any mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, or other business combinations that may be made after January 10, 2005.
這些聲明並不反映 2005 年 1 月 10 日之後可能進行的任何合併、收購、剝離或其他業務合併的潛在影響。
Lastly, if during this call we use any non-GAAP financial measure as defined by the SEC and Reg G, you will find on our website, INTC.com, the required reconciliation in the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure.
最後,如果在本次電話會議中我們使用 SEC 和 Reg G 定義的任何非 GAAP 財務指標,您將在我們的網站 INTC.com 上找到最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標所需的對帳資訊。
I now want to introduce Andy Bryant who will discuss the fourth quarter earnings results.
我現在想介紹安迪·布萊恩特,他將討論第四季度的獲利結果。
Andy?
安迪?
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Thanks, Doug.
謝謝,道格。
2004 was a year of growth.
2004年是成長的一年。
All of our major businesses delivered double digit increases in annual revenues.
我們所有的主要業務的年收入都實現了兩位數的成長。
Total growth approached 14%, a little higher than the growth achieved in 2003.
總成長率接近14%,略高於2003年的成長率。
Despite some unfortunate fits and starts, gross margin ended the full year a point higher than 2003 at 58%.
儘管出現了一些不幸的斷斷續續的情況,全年毛利率仍比 2003 年高出一個百分點,達到 58%。
And gross margin dollars were up by 16%.
毛利率成長了 16%。
Operating and net income were each up by over 30%.
營業收入和淨利潤均成長了 30% 以上。
The Intel Architecture business grew operating profit by over 16%, while the Communications businesses trimmed their losses slightly.
英特爾架構業務的營業利潤成長了 16% 以上,而通訊業務則小幅減少了虧損。
Inventories ended the year up slightly from a year ago, at a fraction of the growth in annual revenue.
年末庫存較上年略有增加,僅佔年收入成長的一小部分。
The ability of the business to generate cash has been consistently high, and we have returned record amounts of cash to stockholders.
公司產生現金的能力一直很高,我們向股東返還了創紀錄數量的現金。
The quarterly pace as the new year growth rates has inevitably subsided as we look further from the economic trough.
隨著我們遠離經濟低谷,新年成長率不可避免地會放緩。
It remains healthy at a rate we expect to sustain into the first quarter.
它仍然保持健康的速度,我們預計將維持到第一季。
fourth quarter revenues was higher than we anticipated in our October earnings release and our December update. [Inaudible] by growth in both the Computing and Communications businesses.
第四季營收高於我們在 10 月收益發布和 12 月更新的預期。 [聽不清楚] 計算和通訊業務的成長。
Exceeding the forecast range of 9.3 to $9.5 billion, revenue of $9.6 billion was over 13% higher than the third quarter.
營收為 96 億美元,比第三季成長 13% 以上,超出了 9.3 至 95 億美元的預測範圍。
This is the highest sequential growth for this period since 1996.
這是自 1996 年以來這段時期的最高連續成長率。
The year- to-year quarterly growth was 10%.
年比季度成長率為10%。
For the entire year, revenue grew to a record $34.2 billion.
全年營收成長至創紀錄的 342 億美元。
Unit shipments were higher than the third quarter for Intel Architectural microprocesses, chipsets, and motherboards.
英特爾架構微處理器、晶片組和主機板的單位出貨量高於第三季。
In Intel Communications, unit shipments of flash memory were higher as with those of wireless connectivity products.
在英特爾通訊領域,快閃記憶體的單位出貨量高於無線連線產品的單位出貨量。
In the Intel Architecture business, revenue of 8.2 billion was up 15% from the third quarter, and up 7% from a year ago.
英特爾架構業務營收82億美元,季增15%,年增7%。
Within this segment, microprocessor revenues were $6.8 billion, an increase of almost 15% from the third quarter, and almost 5% through the fourth quarter of 2003.
在這一領域,微處理器營收為 68 億美元,比第三季成長近 15%,到 2003 年第四季成長近 5%。
For the full year, microprocessor revenues grew almost 12%.
全年微處理器營收成長了近 12%。
Most of the rest of the revenue in Intel Architecture business comes from chipsets and motherboards, and grew 18% sequentially, and 21% year- to-year.
英特爾架構業務的其餘收入大部分來自晶片組和主機板,季增 18%,較去年同期成長 21%。
For the full year, revenue from these products grew 11%.
全年這些產品的收入成長了 11%。
Revenue for Intel's Communication businesses saw excellent year-to- year growth, although the sequential growth rates have slowed.
儘管環比成長率有所放緩,但英特爾通訊業務的收入仍實現了出色的同比增長。
Revenue of $1.4 billion was up 3% from the third quarter, and 32% from a year ago.
營收為 14 億美元,較第三季成長 3%,較去年同期成長 32%。
For the full year, revenue for the Communications businesses was up 28%.
全年通訊業務收入成長 28%。
Within this segment, flash memory generated revenues during the quarter of $643 million, approximately flat with the third quarter, and up 61% from a year ago.
在該細分市場中,閃存在本季創造了 6.43 億美元的收入,與第三季基本持平,比去年同期成長了 61%。
For the full year, revenue from flash memory was up 42%, to $2.3 billion.
全年閃存收入成長 42%,達到 23 億美元。
Gross margin dollars, up 5.4 billion, were up 14% from the third quarter, but down slightly from a year ago.
毛利率成長 54 億美元,較第三季成長 14%,但較去年同期略有下降。
On a percentage basis, gross margin was 56%, in line with our forecast at update.
以百分比計算,毛利率為 56%,與我們更新時的預測一致。
This includes a special year-end employee bonus expense.
這包括一項特殊的年終員工獎金費用。
We achieved good growth and operating income of $2.9 billion for the quarter, an improvement of 22% over the third quarter.
我們取得了良好的成長,本季營業收入達到 29 億美元,比第三季成長 22%。
As a percentage of revenues, operating income was 30%.
營業收入佔收入的比例為30%。
In the Intel Architecture business, operating income was 42% of revenue for the quarter at $3.5 billion, representing sequential growth of 25%, and year-to- year quarterly decline of 6%.
在英特爾架構業務中,營業收入為 35 億美元,佔本季營收的 42%,季增 25%,年減 6%。
For the year, the group's operating income was $12.1 billion, up 17% from 2003.
這一年,集團的營業收入為121億美元,比2003年成長17%。
The operating loss for the Communications businesses for the quarter was $196 million, an improvement of approximately $54 million from the previous quarter.
本季通訊業務營運虧損為 1.96 億美元,較上一季減少約 5,400 萬美元。
For 2005, we expect to make substantial progress in profitability.
2005年,我們預期獲利能力將取得實質進展。
Success will depend on flash pricing and recovery of the communications market, which are difficult to predict.
成功將取決於快速定價和通訊市場的復甦,而這是很難預測的。
We remain committed to profitability for the Communications group, but we cannot at this time say whether this will happen at the end of 2005 or in 2006.
我們仍致力於通訊集團的獲利,但目前我們無法確定這是否會在 2005 年底或 2006 年實現。
Spending grew during the quarter at a lower rate than revenue.
本季支出成長低於收入增速。
Spending on R&D, marketing, and G& A was on target at $2.4 billion, up 6% sequentially, and up 5% year-to- year.
研發、行銷和一般管理支出目標為 24 億美元,季增 6%,年增 5%。
For the year, spending was $9.4 billion, 9% more than 2003, primarily driven by increased spending and product and manufacturing R&D, and other independent expenses.
今年支出為 94 億美元,比 2003 年增加 9%,主要是由於支出以及產品和製造研發以及其他獨立支出的增加。
The number of employees grew slightly during the quarter to 85,000 at the end of December, a year-to-year increase of 7%.
本季員工人數小幅成長,截至 12 月底達到 85,000 人,年增 7%。
A total in the fourth quarter for interest income, other income, and gains and losses on equity investments, was $127 million, higher than our forecast of 65 million.
第四季利息收入、其他收入以及股權投資損益總額為 1.27 億美元,高於我們預測的 6,500 萬美元。
Within this category of the income statement, interest and other income was $130 million.
在損益表的這一類別中,利息和其他收入為 1.3 億美元。
The effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was 29.9%, slightly lower than the 30.5% we anticipated at update.
第四季的有效稅率為29.9%,略低於我們更新時預期的30.5%。
Fully diluted earnings per share, which includes potential dilution attributable to employee stock options, was $.33.
完全攤薄後的每股收益(包括員工股票選擇權帶來的潛在稀釋)為 0.33 美元。
Basic earnings per share, which does not include potential dilution, was $.34.
每股基本收益(不包括潛在稀釋)為 0.34 美元。
Average shares for calculating diluted earnings per share were 6.4 billion.
計算稀釋每股盈餘的平均股數為64億股。
Basic shares outstanding were 6.3 billion, down 1% from the third quarter, and 3% from a year ago.
已發行基本股為 63 億股,較第三季下降 1%,較去年同期下降 3%。
During the quarter, we repurchased 89 million shares at a cost of $2 billion.
本季度,我們以 20 億美元的成本回購了 8,900 萬股股票。
On the balance sheet, inventories were lower in raw materials, work in process, and finished goods, adding up to total decrease of $559 million, or 18%.
資產負債表上,原料、在製品和產成品的庫存減少,總計減少 5.59 億美元,下降 18%。
This decrease is larger than we anticipated at update in December, as a result of revenues that was higher than anticipated.
由於收入高於預期,這一降幅超出了我們在 12 月更新時的預期。
On a product basis, inventory declined in all Intel Architecture categories, and in flash memory and wireless connectivity.
從產品角度來看,所有英特爾架構類別以及快閃記憶體和無線連接的庫存均有所下降。
The current level of $2.6 billion is a little lower than we would consider optimal.
目前 26 億美元的水平略低於我們認為的最佳水平。
Cash, short-term investments, and fixed income trading assets ended the quarter at $16.8 billion, an increase from third quarter of $1 billion, after stock repurchases of 2 billion, capital spending of 1 billion, and dividend payments of $252 million.
現金、短期投資和固定收益交易資產截至本季末為168 億美元,較第三季的10 億美元增加,其中回購了20 億股股票,資本支出為10 億美元,股利支付為2.52 億美元。
As we turn now to the outlook for the first quarter, please keep in mind that the forecast data do not include the effect of any new acquisitions or divestitures that may be completed after January 10th.
當我們現在轉向第一季的展望時,請記住,預測數據不包括 1 月 10 日之後可能完成的任何新收購或剝離的影響。
Nor do they include the effect of new accounting standards for share-based compensations.
它們也不包括新會計準則對股權激勵的影響。
I will use the midpoint of forecast ranges in making comparisons to prior periods.
我將使用預測範圍的中點與前期進行比較。
We are planning for sequential decline and sustained year- to-year growth in the first quarter, with revenue between 8.8 and $9.4 billion.
我們計劃第一季實現環比下降和持續同比增長,營收在 880 至 94 億美元之間。
The midpoint of this range would be down 5% from the fourth quarter, consistent with historical trends from the fourth to the first quarter.
該區間的中點將比第四季下降 5%,與第四季到第一季的歷史趨勢一致。
Compared to the first quarter of 2004, the midpoint of the forecast revenue range would be an increase of approximately 12%.
與2004年第一季相比,預測收入範圍的中點將成長約12%。
Our target for gross margin percentage in the first quarter is 55%, plus or minus a couple of points.
我們第一季毛利率的目標是55%,上下浮動幾個百分點。
This is 1 point less than the fourth quarter.
這比第四節少了1分。
Factory utilization will be higher in the first quarter and will boost gross margins, but the benefit will be offset by higher start up costs in the factories, which I will discuss shortly, and lower revenues.
第一季工廠利用率將會更高,毛利率也會提高,但這種好處將被工廠啟動成本上升(我很快就會討論)和收入下降所抵消。
The forecast is 5 points lower than gross margins in the first quarter of 2004.
該預測比 2004 年第一季的毛利率低 5 個百分點。
Spending, R&D plus MG&A, should be approximately $2.5 to $2.6 billion.
研發支出加上 MG&A 支出應約為 250 至 26 億美元。
Depreciation should be $1.2 billion, plus or minus $100 million.
折舊應為 12 億美元,正負 1 億美元。
We expect amortization of acquisition related intangibles for Q1 to be approximately $40 million.
我們預計第一季收購相關無形資產攤銷約 4,000 萬美元。
Our estimate for gains and losses from equity investments and interest and other income is a net gain of $100 million.
我們對股權投資以及利息和其他收入的損益的估計為淨收益 1 億美元。
Looking ahead to the entire year, we expect gross margin percentage for 2005 to be approximately 58%, plus or minus a few points.
展望全年,我們預計2005年的毛利率約為58%,上下浮動幾個百分點。
The midpoint would be roughly flat with 2004.
中點將與 2004 年大致持平。
Higher start-up costs and other items related to the ramp of the new 65nm processor will be concentrated in the first half of the year, with similar impact in the first and second quarters.
較高的啟動成本和其他與新 65nm 處理器的升級相關的項目將集中在今年上半年,第一季和第二季的影響類似。
We expect that during this period, the cost of these investments will offset the operating benefits of higher unit volumes and higher factory utilization.
我們預計,在此期間,這些投資的成本將抵消更高單位產量和更高工廠利用率的營運效益。
In the second half, start-up costs should decline.
下半年,啟動成本應該會下降。
If over the year, the business progresses according to typical seasonal patterns and start-up costs decline as planned, we will expect gross margin percentage to be higher in the third and fourth quarter than in the first and second.
如果全年業務按照典型的季節性模式發展,啟動成本會按計劃下降,我們預計第三季和第四季的毛利率將高於第一季和第二季。
The emphasis in capital spending continues to shift to smaller geometries, with the focus now on 65nms.
資本支出的重點繼續轉向更小的幾何尺寸,現在的重點是 65 奈米。
We are targeting capital spending at $5.1 billion, plus or minus $200 million.
我們的資本支出目標為 51 億美元,上下浮動 2 億美元。
This is higher than the 3.8 billion spent in 2004.
這高於 2004 年的 38 億美元。
Most of the projected $1.3 billion increase in the budget will be spent to ramp the passing on our new 65nm processors, in 300 millimeter factories. 90% of spending for battery equipment this year is targeted at 65nm.
預計增加的 13 億美元預算中的大部分將用於提高 300 毫米工廠中新型 65 奈米處理器的通過率。今年電池設備支出的90%針對65奈米。
For research and development in 2005, we plan to spend $5.2 billion on R&D, an increase from the $4.8 billion we spent in 2004.
2005年,我們計畫在研發方面投入52億美元,比2004年的48億美元增加。
Most of the increase in the budget will be directed to product development and validation for Intel Architecture products. $5.2 billion is the highest level of R&D spending in Intel's history.
預算增加的大部分將用於英特爾架構產品的產品開發和驗證。 52億美元是英特爾史上研發支出的最高水準。
Depreciation for 2005 is expected to be approximately $4.4 billion for the year, plus or minus $100 million, which would be slightly below $4.6 billion in 2004.
2005 年的折舊預計約 44 億美元,上下浮動 1 億美元,略低於 2004 年的 46 億美元。
Although the pace of change is slow, this would mark the third year of lower depreciation.
儘管變化步伐緩慢,但這將標誌著折舊率連續第三年下降。
Our estimated tax rate for 2005 is 31%.
我們預計 2005 年的稅率為 31%。
I would like to close with a look back at 2004, and a list of what I see as some of our most significant financial accomplishments.
最後,我想回顧一下 2004 年,並列出我認為我們最重要的一些財務成就。
Growth and total revenue approaching 14%, on top of growth that approached 13% in 2003.
繼 2003 年接近 13% 的成長率之後,成長率和總收入接近 14%。
Growth in microprocessor sales of 12%, following 17% growth in 2003.
繼 2003 年 17% 的成長之後,微處理器銷售額成長 12%。
Relative revenue from Communication businesses of 28%, including 42% in flash memory.
通訊業務的相對收入佔 28%,其中快閃記憶體業務佔 42%。
18 consecutive years and 72 consecutive quarters of profitability.
連續18年、連續72個季度獲利。
Operating income of $10.1 billion, up 34% from 2003.
營業收入達 101 億美元,比 2003 年成長 34%。
Gross margin dollars up 16% from 2003.
毛利率較 2003 年成長 16%。
Another year of discipline on spending.
又是一年的支出紀律。
Discretionary spending grew at a slower rate than revenue, and the Q4 level was actually less than Q4 of 2003.
可自由支配支出的成長速度低於收入的成長速度,第四季的水準實際上低於2003年第四季的水準。
Discretionary spending per person grew at half the rate of revenue.
人均可自由支配支出的成長率是所得成長率的一半。
Spending for R&D, marketing, and G&A grew at a slower rate in the business.
該業務的研發、行銷和一般管理支出成長速度較慢。
As a percentage of revenues, spending was down slightly for the quarter and for the year as a whole.
從佔收入的百分比來看,本季和全年的支出略有下降。
Outstanding credit controls maintained as we expanded into emerging markets, where open credit terms are less common.
當我們擴展到開放信貸條款不太常見的新興市場時,我們仍然保持著出色的信貸控制。
Bad debts were the lowest in 5 years, and quarterly days outstanding range from 36 to 34 days, and ended the year at 34.
壞帳為 5 年來最低,季未清償天數為 36 至 34 天,年末為 34 天。
Capital spending of $3.8 billion.
資本支出38億美元。
With 300 millimeter we spent over $1 billion less on bad capacity, than would have been required with the equivalent capability on the older 200 millimeter process.
與舊的 200 毫米製程的同等能力相比,我們在 300 毫米製程中在不良產能上的花費減少了 10 億美元以上。
Total savings from the 300 millimeter program to date totalled $4 billion, with the plans for continued savings in 2005.
迄今為止,300 毫米計劃總共節省了 40 億美元,並計劃在 2005 年繼續節省開支。
R&D of $4.8 million, for a total of $13.2 billion over the last 3 years.
研發費用為 480 萬美元,過去 3 年總計 132 億美元。
49 consecutive quarters of cash dividend payments with $1 billion paid in 2004, bringing the cumulative distribution of stockholders to $4.3 billion.
2004年連續49季派發現金股利10億美元,使股東累計分配達43億美元。
The announcement of two doublings of dividends in roughly $2 billion of payments in 2005.
2005 年宣布將股息翻倍,支付金額約 20 億美元。
$7.5 million in stock repurchases, twice as much as $4 billion spent in 2003.
股票回購花費了 750 萬美元,是 2003 年花費的 40 億美元的兩倍。
This brings the cumulative number of shares repurchased since the buyback program began in 1990, to 2.2 billion.
這使得自 1990 年回購計畫啟動以來累積回購的股票數量達到 22 億股。
Decline in annual basic shares outstanding of 2%.
年度已發行基本股下降 2%。
From its quarterly peak in 1998, basic shares in Q4 are down 7%.
與 1998 年的季度高峰相比,第四季基本股下跌了 7%。
An increase of nearly $1 billion in cash, short-term investments, and fixed income trading assets.
現金、短期投資和固定收益交易資產增加近10億美元。
And, finally, cash from operations of approximately $13 billion.
最後,來自營運的現金約為 130 億美元。
For each of the preceding 8 years Intel has generated over $8 billion in cash.
過去 8 年,英特爾每年產生超過 80 億美元的現金。
With that, let me turn it over for Paul for comment on the business.
現在,讓我把它轉給保羅,讓他對這件事發表評論。
- President, COO
- President, COO
Thanks, Andy.
謝謝,安迪。
As Andy mentioned, Intel achieved record quarterly and annual revenue, driven by strength in all of our Intel Architecture groups across all geographies and channels.
正如安迪所提到的,在所有地區和通路的所有英特爾架構團隊的實力推動下,英特爾實現了創紀錄的季度和年度收入。
On a geographic basis, our Asia Pacific region continued to set new records and was up 10% versus the third quarter, and 27% versus the year ago.
從地理來看,我們的亞太地區持續創下新紀錄,較第三季成長 10%,較去年同期成長 27%。
APAC continues to benefit from strong local consumption in both business and consumer, as well as export pro [ph].
亞太地區持續受惠於當地企業和消費者強勁的消費以及出口優惠[ph]。
China set another revenue record and grew 26% for the full year.
中國再創收入紀錄,全年成長 26%。
In India, we continued to see a rapidly growing PC market with our business there growing about 45% for the year.
在印度,我們的個人電腦市場持續快速成長,全年我們的業務成長了約 45%。
IMEA [ph] had our highest sequential growth, up 21% versus the third quarter, benefiting from strength in both consumer and business, especially for notebooks.
IMEA [ph] 實現了最高的連續成長,與第三季相比成長了 21%,這得益於消費者和企業(尤其是筆記型電腦)的強勁成長。
The region had particularly strong emerging market growth in the Middle East and central Europe.
該地區的中東和中歐新興市場成長尤其強勁。
In the Americas regions, revenue is up 14% sequentially, better than seasonally normal, thanks to U.S. retail sales, which had good up-take of mobile products, along with enterprise strength and a bounce-back following CPU inventory depletion by some of our OEM customers in the third quarter.
在美洲地區,營收季增 14%,好於季節性正常水平,這要歸功於美國零售業對行動產品的良好採用,以及企業實力以及我們的一些 CPU 庫存耗儘後的反彈。第三季OEM客戶。
In Latin America, an improving macroeconomic environment helped us set new revenue records for both the quarter and the year.
在拉丁美洲,宏觀經濟環境的改善幫助我們創下了季度和年度的新收入記錄。
In Japan, we had records for the quarter and the full year surpassing a mark set 4 years ago.
在日本,我們的季度和全年記錄都超過了 4 年前的記錄。
Revenue was up 10% sequentially, and 9% versus a year ago, thanks to seasonal growth in local consumption and a continued strength in notebook exports.
由於本地消費的季節性增長和筆記型電腦出口的持續強勁,收入環比增長 10%,同比增長 9%。
Our channel business continues to be a key source of growth worldwide, setting new records in both units and revenues.
我們的通路業務仍然是全球成長的主要來源,在銷售和收入方面都創下了新紀錄。
Our channel business was particularly strong in emerging markets driven by consumer, government, and small-business purchase of PCs.
在消費者、政府和小型企業購買個人電腦的推動下,我們的通路業務在新興市場尤其強勁。
Earlier this year we outlined a goal to double our coverage of emerging market cities, via our distribution channel.
今年早些時候,我們制定了一個目標,透過我們的分銷管道將新興市場城市的覆蓋範圍擴大一倍。
We met that goal and now have a presence in over 1,200 cities in 110 countries worldwide.
我們實現了這一目標,目前已在全球 110 個國家/地區的 1,200 多個城市開展業務。
Moving to the Intel Architecture business, the mobile group had another very strong quarter with record units and revenue.
轉向英特爾架構業務,行動業務部門迎來了一個非常強勁的季度,銷售和收入均創歷史新高。
Mobile units grew over 50% versus the same period last year, as notebook processors continued to gain as a percentage of our processor shipments for PCs, growing at the rate of a couple of percentage points a quarter.
與去年同期相比,行動裝置成長了 50% 以上,筆記型電腦處理器佔 PC 處理器出貨量的百分比持續成長,每季成長幾個百分點。
We saw strong Centrino demand from consumers in the holiday season, especially in established markets such as the U.S., where notebooks reached nearly 1/2 of retail PC unit sales.
我們看到假期期間消費者對迅馳的需求強勁,尤其是在美國等成熟市場,筆記型電腦佔零售 PC 銷售的近 1/2。
During the quarter we also began shipping the Alviso chipset in preparation for next week's launch of our new mobile platform, code name Sonoma.
在本季度,我們也開始出貨 Alviso 晶片組,為下週推出代號為 Sonoma 的新行動平台做準備。
Sonoma is the next generation Intel Centrino mobile technology platform, and includes a Devon [ph] Pentium M processor with a faster front side bus, integrated 80211AB and G Wi-Fi capability, and the Alviso chipset which supports improved integrated graphics, Intel High Definition audio, PCI express, and DDR2 memory.
Sonoma 是新一代 Intel Centrino 行動技術平台,包括具有更快前端匯流排的 Devon [ph] Pentium M 處理器、整合 80211AB 和 G Wi-Fi 功能,以及支援改進的整合式顯示卡、Intel High Definition 的 Alviso 晶片組音訊、PCI Express 和DDR2 記憶體。
Our desktop business also had a strong quarter, with double-digit sequential unit growth and a strong mix to Pentium processors.
我們的桌上型電腦業務也有一個強勁的季度,單位數量連續成長兩位數,並且採用奔騰處理器。
Our hyper-threading technology continues to grow, and now represents 2/3 of our performance shipments, providing further foundation for the rollout of our dual core processors later this year.
我們的超線程技術不斷發展,目前已占我們效能出貨量的 2/3,為今年稍後推出雙核心處理器提供了進一步的基礎。
Last week we began shipping our new 600 sequence Pentium processors, featuring a 2 megabyte cache that will be in OEM systems later this quarter.
上週我們開始出貨新的 600 系列奔騰處理器,具有 2 MB 緩存,將於本季稍後應用於 OEM 系統。
In the digital home, the fourth quarter saw entertainment PCs become a reality, with over 20 products now introduced based on the Pentium 4 processor with HT Technology, and the Intel 915 Express Chipset.
在數位家庭領域,第四季度娛樂 PC 成為現實,現已推出 20 多種基於採用 HT 技術的 Pentium 4 處理器和 Intel 915 Express 晶片組的產品。
Entertainment PCs combine the functionality of multiple consumer electronic devices, such as DVD players, gaming stations, and personal video recorders into a single platform that also supports web consent browsing and home networking.
娛樂 PC 將 DVD 播放器、遊戲機和個人錄影機等多種消費性電子設備的功能組合到一個平台中,該平台還支援 Web 同意瀏覽和家庭網路。
Our Enterprise group had another record quarter for unit and revenue led by strong demand for the recently introduced 64 bit Intel Xeon processor platform for DP servers and workstations, which supports PCI express, DDR2 memory and 64-bit extensions.
由於最近推出的 DP 伺服器和工作站 64 位元 Intel Xeon 處理器平台(支援 PCI Express、DDR2 記憶體和 64 位元擴充)的強勁需求,我們的企業集團的單位數量和收入再創新高。
Shipments of this product more than tripled in the fourth quarter to over 1 million units, becoming our fastest ramping Xeon chip ever in this first 2 quarters of shipment .
該產品的出貨量在第四季度增長了兩倍多,超過 100 萬顆,成為我們前兩個季度出貨量增長最快的 Xeon 晶片。
We also enhanced our Itanium 2 processor line up, with 6 new processors spanning multi-processor, dual-processor, and low voltage system designs.
我們也增強了我們的 Itanium 2 處理器系列,推出 6 款新處理器,涵蓋多處理器、雙處理器和低電壓系統設計。
In the latest top 500 ranking, Intel powers over 60% of the world's fastest super computers, a 15-fold increase over the past 3 years.
在最新的 500 強排名中,全球 60% 以上的最快超級電腦均採用英特爾技術,這一數字在過去 3 年中增加了 15 倍。
Itanium based systems make up 83 super computers at the top 500 list, including NASA's project Columbia system, the second fastest in the world.
排名前 500 名的超級電腦中有 83 台是基於安騰的系統,其中包括 NASA 的哥倫比亞專案系統,該系統是世界上第二快的系統。
Lastly in microprocessors, we demonstrated 3 next generation dual core microprocessors during the quarter for server, desktop, and notebook market segments, including our first 65nm dual core processor, code name Yonah.
最後在微處理器方面,我們在本季針對伺服器、桌上型電腦和筆記型電腦市場領域展示了 3 款新一代雙核心微處理器,其中包括我們的首款 65 奈米雙核心處理器,代號為 Yonah。
Our chipset business set unit and revenue records as it maintained our attach rate at the high level reached in the third quarter, up substantially up from the beginning of the year.
我們的晶片組業務創下了單位和收入記錄,將我們的附加率維持在第三季度達到的高水平,比年初大幅上升。
In particular, we saw increasing demand for our grand sale chipset which experienced sequential growth of approximately 40%, helping us exit the year at nearly half of our performance chipset shipments, with particular strength from large OEMs.
特別是,我們看到對我們的盛大銷售晶片組的需求不斷增加,連續增長了約 40%,幫助我們以近一半的性能晶片組出貨量結束了這一年,特別是來自大型 OEM 的實力。
Motherboard unit shipments also set a new record in the quarter, and were up over 50% for the full year.
本季主機板出貨量也創下新紀錄,全年成長超過 50%。
Moving to our Communications group, ICG saw revenue up 3% sequentially, and up 32% versus a year ago.
轉向我們的通訊部門,ICG 的營收環比成長 3%,與去年同期相比成長 32%。
Our flash revenue was flat sequentially, as higher units were offset by lower ASPs due to pricing pressure in both the cellular and broad markets.
我們的快閃記憶體收入環比持平,因為蜂窩市場和廣泛市場的定價壓力導致平均售價下降,抵消了單位數量的增加。
For the full year, our flash business grew over 40%, led by good demand for our latest Strata flash products for handsets.
全年,我們的快閃記憶體業務成長了 40% 以上,這得益於對我們最新的手機 Strata 快閃記憶體產品的良好需求。
It allowed us to recapture the number 1 position in the Nor [ph] market segment in the second half of the year.
這讓我們在下半年重新奪回了 Nor [ph] 細分市場第一的位置。
The fastest growing portion of our Communications business continues to be wireless LAN, a key component of our Centrino mobile technology platform.
我們通訊業務中成長最快的部分仍然是無線 LAN,它是我們迅馳行動技術平台的關鍵組成部分。
Units were up 30% sequentially, and more than doubled versus last year.
單位數量比上一季增加了 30%,比去年增加了一倍多。
We also began shipping our ABG solution in support of the upcoming Sonoma launch.
我們也開始交付 ABG 解決方案,以支援即將推出的索諾瑪。
Our Applications processor business also saw good growth in the quarter, thanks to the ramp of exciting new products like the Palm Treo 650, which features our latest XScale microprocessor.
我們的應用處理器業務在本季度也取得了良好的成長,這要歸功於令人興奮的新產品的推出,例如採用我們最新的 XScale 微處理器的 Palm Treo 650。
In summary, we ended 2004 with record revenue for the quarter and the year, as well as strong growth in profits.
總而言之,我們在 2004 年結束時,該季度和該年度的營收均創歷史新高,利潤也強勁增長。
Our investments in platform innovation and global presence help drive continued growth in the emerging markets, rapid notebook adoption in established markets, and record shipments for our enterprise products.
我們對平台創新和全球影響力的投資有助於推動新興市場的持續成長、成熟市場中筆記型電腦的快速採用以及我們企業產品的創紀錄出貨量。
Our investments in 300-millimeter and 90nm capacity allowed us to make a major transition to new products that meets considerable upside from robust PC demand this past quarter.
我們對 300 毫米和 90 奈米產能的投資使我們能夠向新產品進行重大轉型,以滿足上個季度強勁的 PC 需求帶來的巨大成長。
We've also made substantial progress on 65nm technology, which will allow us to cost effectively ramp dual core microprocessors across all of the compelling segments beginning later this year.
我們還在 65 奈米技術方面取得了實質進展,這將使我們能夠從今年稍後開始,在所有引人注目的細分市場中經濟高效地推出雙核心微處理器。
Finally, we have made significant progress in our ability to deliver platform value in new ways, as evidenced by the momentum of our Centrino mobile technology and new chipsets that bring major advances in audio, video, graphics, memory, and IO.
最後,我們在以新方式提供平台價值的能力方面取得了重大進展,我們的迅馳移動技術和新晶片組的勢頭證明了這一點,這些晶片組在音頻、視頻、圖形、內存和IO 方面帶來了重大進步。
In 2005 we anticipate another year of solid growth, driven by our new Sonoma platform for mobility and forthcoming processors and platforms for the enterprise, digital office, and digital home.
在我們新的 Sonoma 行動平台以及即將推出的企業、數位辦公室和數位家庭處理器和平台的推動下,我們預計 2005 年將迎來另一個穩健成長的一年。
With that, I'll turn it back to Doug to begin Q and A.
接下來,我會將其轉回道格開始問答。
- Director of Investor Relations
- Director of Investor Relations
Okay, thanks, Paul.
好的,謝謝,保羅。
We will now open the conference call for Q and A. We will attempt to take questions from as many participants as possible.
我們現在將開始電話會議進行問答。我們將嘗試回答盡可能多的參與者的問題。
To help in this process, we ask that you please limit yourself to only 1 question, and no more than 1 brief follow-up.
為了幫助完成此過程,我們要求您只提出 1 個問題,並且不要超過 1 個簡短的跟進。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator?
操作員?
Operator
Operator
[OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS] Your first question comes from Tim Luke with Lehman Brothers.
[操作員說明] 您的第一個問題來自雷曼兄弟的提姆·盧克。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks very much.
非常感謝。
Congratulations on the quarter.
恭喜本季。
I was wondering in being up 15% sequentially in the process arena, Andy, in the past you had alluded to the fact that you were monitoring any issues associated with double ordering.
我想知道流程領域是否連續成長了 15%,Andy,過去您曾提到您正在監控與雙重排序相關的任何問題。
Could you give us a sense of how you view that and how you view that with respect to your guide for the first quarter bouncing the extra week that you have in the first quarter, with how you see the normal seasonality of the beginning of the year.
您能否告訴我們您如何看待這一點,以及您如何看待第一季的指南,即第一季額外一周的反彈,以及您如何看待年初的正常季節性。
Thank you.
謝謝。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Sure, whenever you're in a tight situation, being customer orders, you always worry about double ordering.
當然,每當您處於客戶訂單緊張的情況時,您總是擔心重複訂購。
There are a few ways we can check on it.
我們可以透過幾種方法來檢查它。
We can look at the channel, which we have pretty good insight into what's out and actually in the inventory and it's actually a little less than it was in the third quarter.
我們可以看看這個管道,我們對庫存和實際庫存有很好的了解,實際上比第三季要少一些。
You can look at your customers' demand and the urgency in which they're expediting you.
您可以查看客戶的需求以及他們催促您的緊迫性。
Right now it doesn't feel like there is extra shipping going on.
現在感覺沒有額外的運輸正在進行中。
I can't comment on whether there are extra orders or not.
是否有額外訂單我無法評論。
So it doesn't feel like anything terribly unusual happened in Q4.
所以感覺第四季並沒有發生什麼非常不尋常的事情。
As far as looking forward to Q1, the midpoint of the revenue range would be down 5%.
展望第一季度,營收範圍的中點將下降 5%。
That is kind of what you expect seasonally.
這就是你對季節性的期望。
We do have the extra week in there so I think I --we'll get some benefit from that.
我們確實有額外的一周時間,所以我想我們會從中得到一些好處。
It's hard to know exactly how much.
很難確切知道有多少。
So I would tend to say what we forecasted for the first quarter is a little higher drop than you'd seasonally see, but inside the range we historically see.
因此,我傾向於說,我們對第一季的預測降幅略高於季節性看到的降幅,但在我們歷史上看到的範圍內。
Mostly because of coming out with a pretty strong Q4, we looked at year-over-year growth of 12% in revenue and felt like that was a pretty comfortable place to be.
主要是因為第四季表現相當強勁,我們看到營收年增 12%,感覺這是一個相當舒適的地方。
- Analyst
- Analyst
And then with respect to your first quarter where you talked about utilization improving, could you just reconcile how we should proceed the start-up costs spread across the first quarter and second quarter and how that may impact gross margins at the beginning of the year.
然後,關於您談到利用率提高的第一季度,您能否協調我們應如何處理第一季和第二季的啟動成本以及這可能如何影響年初的毛利率。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Sure, that's a--I'm going to go into a essentially a second speech now, so I'll eventually get to your question.
當然,我現在要進行第二次演講,所以我最終會回答你的問題。
If you look at my--let me start with my fourth quarter.
如果你看看我的——讓我從第四季開始。
If you look at the fourth quarter, we saw a billion dollars more in revenue and margin percentage was essentially flat.
如果你看看第四季度,我們會發現營收增加了十億美元,而利潤率基本上持平。
If you look at that revenue growth mostly being Intel Architecture, you would expect to see at least a couple points or margin expansion, all things being equal.
如果您看到收入成長主要來自英特爾架構,那麼在所有條件相同的情況下,您預計會看到至少幾個百分點或利潤率擴張。
The reason it was flat, is because we have 2 to 3 points worth of expenses in the start-up costs and under utilization costs in the fourth quarter.
之所以持平,是因為我們第四季的啟動成本和利用成本中有 2 到 3 個百分點的費用。
So think in terms of in the fourth quarter, I'm starting on 2 or 3 points for start-up and utilization which kept the margin percentage flat.
因此,就第四季度而言,我在啟動和利用率方面開始提高 2 或 3 個點,這使利潤率保持穩定。
As I move into Q1, I get back the end utilization charges.
當我進入第一季時,我收回了最終使用費。
So we don't have any under utilization costs in the first quarter, or we have minimum, none in Intel Architecture.
因此,我們在第一季沒有任何利用不足的成本,或者說我們在英特爾架構中沒有任何利用不足的成本。
However, my start-up costs increase again, so the net effect of those 2, some good news out of utilization, some bad news on our start-up costs, pushes the margin down by about 1 point, the 1 point drop you see.
然而,我的啟動成本再次增加,所以這2 個因素的淨效應,一些關於我們的啟動成本的好消息被利用,一些壞消息,將利潤率降低了大約1 個百分點,你看到的1 個百分點的下降。
I would expect the same--approximately the same level of start-up costs in the second quarter, and then we start to see it drop off a fair amount in the third and fourth quarter.
我預計第二季的啟動成本將保持大致相同的水平,然後我們開始看到第三季和第四季的啟動成本大幅下降。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from John Lau with Banc of America.
你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Lau。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
You made a lot of progress with regards to the inventory reduction.
你們在減少庫存方面取得了很大進展。
I was wondering, 2 questions, was there any write-downs that you had taken with regards to that inventory reduction and I have a follow-up.
我想知道,有兩個問題,你們是否對庫存減少進行了任何減記,我有後續行動。
Thank you.
謝謝。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Not really.
並不真地。
When you tend to have "write-downs" or the reevaluations or whatever somebody thinks is going on, is when inventories--when costs are going down.
當你傾向於進行「減記」或重新評估或任何有人認為正在發生的事情時,就是庫存——成本下降的時候。
So if factories are ramping, costing is going down, any inventory that's left over from the prior quarter gets adjusted.
因此,如果工廠擴大規模,成本就會下降,上一季剩餘的庫存都會調整。
If you look at the way--where we are right now, the cost of a microprocessor in the third and fourth quarter are approximately the same.
如果你看看我們現在的情況,第三季微處理器的成本大致相同。
So no inventory reevaluations.
因此沒有庫存重新評估。
The other thing you should look at is the date of inventory.
您應該查看的另一件事是庫存日期。
I have about $2.5 of inventory which is 45 or 50 days worth of inventory, so I have very little in inventory now that was in inventory at the end of the third quarter.
我有大約 2.5 美元的庫存,相當於 45 或 50 天的庫存,所以我現在的庫存比第三季末的庫存很少。
Again, I don't have much I can even talk about as being revalued.
再說一次,我甚至沒有太多可以談論的重估。
Simple answer, nearly all the decrease is we shipped out more than we expected and we decreased our wafer starts like we said in the third quarter, so we built less than we would have previously.
簡單的答案是,幾乎所有的減少都是我們的出貨量超出了我們的預期,並且我們像第三季度所說的那樣減少了晶圓開工量,因此我們的產量比之前少了。
- Analyst
- Analyst
You mentioned with regards to the inventory now you're a little bit leaner than you wanted.
您提到現在的庫存比您想要的要精簡一些。
I was wondering if you could follow-up on that and if you can give us any color as to whether there was any product constraints as a result of this significantly lower inventory level.
我想知道您是否可以對此進行跟進,是否可以向我們提供任何信息,說明庫存水準顯著降低是否會導致任何產品限制。
Thank you.
謝謝。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Sure.
當然。
We have some customers who wished we could have shipped a little more to them in the fourth quarter.
我們有一些客戶希望我們能夠在第四季度向他們多發貨一些。
So that is the tightness I talked about earlier.
這就是我之前談到的緊縮性。
My personal opinion is we did try to slam the door hard on inventory.
我個人的觀點是,我們確實試圖大力減少庫存。
We probably went a little too far.
我們可能有點太過分了。
If you ask me today, sure, I wish we had another $100 million worth of [inaudible] products available to ship.
如果您今天問我,當然,我希望我們還有另外價值 1 億美元的[聽不清楚] 產品可供運輸。
It is not an emergency to increase inventory, but it won't bother me at all.
增加庫存不是什麼緊急事,但完全不會困擾我。
In fact, I would like to see us get a little bit more in the first and second quarter.
事實上,我希望看到我們在第一季和第二季取得更多進展。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Great progress.
巨大的進步。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Chris Danely with J.P. Morgan.
您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的克里斯丹利(Chris Danely)。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Hey, guys, thanks.
嘿,夥計們,謝謝。
Just another quick question on the gross margin.
這是另一個關於毛利率的簡單問題。
So, as we trend throughout the year to get to the 58%, you mentioned that there is some more start-up costs in Q2.
因此,當我們全年趨勢達到 58% 時,您提到第二季會有更多的啟動成本。
I guess in getting to your assumptions, are you guys taking into account that Q2 could be a little bit weaker than seasonal because of the extra week in Q1?
我想在做出你的假設時,你們是否考慮到由於第一季額外的一周,第二季可能比季節性稍弱一些?
And also, in the second half of the year, to get to the 58% for the year, do you assume that we can see the kind of incremental gross margin ramp like we saw in the second half of '03?
而且,在今年下半年,為了達到 58%,您是否認為我們可以看到像 03 年下半年那樣的毛利率增量?
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Okay, so let me start with the second one.
好吧,那我就從第二個開始吧。
Certainly we assume revenue ramp in the second half, kind of seasonal, which I believe should lead to some margin expansion possibility on the basic business.
當然,我們假設下半年營收會出現季節性成長,我相信這應該會導致基本業務出現一定的利潤率擴張可能性。
I would also expect to see some benefit from lower start-up costs.
我還希望看到較低的啟動成本帶來一些好處。
It takes both of those to get my 58% for the year.
我需要這兩點才能獲得今年的 58%。
In terms of the extra week, you got to be real careful when you think about how that affects gross margin in the first quarter.
就額外一周而言,當您考慮這如何影響第一季的毛利率時,您必須非常小心。
Remember the way accounting works is in that extra week you build product and you spend money to build product.
請記住,會計的工作方式是在額外的一周內您建立產品並花錢建立產品。
You don't expense that extra week.
你不需要花那額外的一周。
It basically goes to inventory and then gets recognized at cost when that product ships.
它基本上進入庫存,然後在產品發貨時按成本確認。
So the extra week in and of itself doesn't add a big bunch of cost in the first quarter.
因此,額外的一周本身並不會在第一季增加大量成本。
The piece that it does add into, is like the start-up cost.
它確實增加的部分就像啟動成本。
The cost of of the period cost that goes straight to the bottom line, that you have one more week's worth of those in the first quarter.
期間成本的成本直接影響到底線,即第一季的成本多了一週。
So what you should think of as the extra week is adding or decreasing margins a little bit, but not a lot.
因此,您應該將額外的一周視為稍微增加或減少利潤,但不要太多。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then on the inventory, can you give us a rough idea of where you'd like your inventory to be either in terms of dollars or days going into the second half of the year?
然後在庫存方面,您能否粗略地告訴我們您希望庫存在下半年的情況(以美元或天數計算)?
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
I probably would leave that one alone.
我可能會留下那個。
Inventory is hard to forecast, but, again, where we are today I think we got too thin.
庫存很難預測,但是,再說一次,我認為我們今天的處境太薄弱了。
You know, the business expanded over the last year by almost 14%, my inventory went up 3 or 4 points, I thought I was pretty good in control of last year.
你知道,去年業務成長了近14%,我的庫存增加了3、4個百分點,我認為去年我控制得很好。
So yes, I would like to see the inventory to be up.
所以,是的,我希望看到庫存增加。
I'd like to make sure I can meet my customers' needs.
我想確保我能夠滿足客戶的需求。
In this business, not being able to fill an order is a much bigger problem than having inventory sit around for an extra few days.
在這個行業中,無法履行訂單是比庫存多待幾天更大的問題。
- Analyst
- Analyst
I'm sorry, Andy, just a quick clarification on your first answer.
抱歉,安迪,我只是對您的第一個答案進行快速澄清。
So you guys had over 100% incremental gross margin in the second half of '03, is that what you need to get to the 58% gross margin for the year?
那麼你們在 03 年下半年的毛利率增量超過了 100%,這是你們今年達到 58% 毛利率所需要的嗎?
Thanks.
謝謝。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
I'm not going to get in that fine a level of detail, but I've given you a pretty good idea of how much start-up costs are affecting margins in the first and second quarter.
我不會詳細說明,但我已經讓您很好地了解了啟動成本對第一季和第二季利潤率的影響。
I get a big percentage of that back in the third and fourth quarter, and I do need to get some incremental margins out of revenue expansion to make it work.
我在第三和第四季獲得了很大一部分利潤,而且我確實需要從收入擴張中獲得一些增量利潤才能使其發揮作用。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
That's fine.
沒關係。
Thanks, guys.
多謝你們。
Sorry about the long winded question.
抱歉問了這麼長的問題。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from Tom Thornhill from USB.
下一個問題來自 USB 的 Tom Thornhill。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Can we move up to a couple more macro questions, maybe more towards Paul on this side.
我們能否繼續討論幾個宏觀問題,也許更多的是針對保羅這一方面的問題。
If you look at the environment in the corporate market, what are you seeing there in terms of IT spending trends, capital spending trends, because we have been little CapEx as a percent of capability is a little low relative to where it could be.
如果你看看企業市場的環境,你會發現 IT 支出趨勢、資本支出趨勢如何,因為我們的資本支出很少,因為能力百分比相對於可能的水平來說有點低。
- President, COO
- President, COO
You're right.
你說得對。
I think that I tried to put that in some of my comments, Tom.
我想我試圖將這一點納入我的一些評論中,湯姆。
In general, if you look at the product line as it did well in the second half of this year, particularly in the fourth quarter, servers continued to have quarterly records and set all-time records in the fourth quarter, our server chips.
總的來說,如果你看一下產品線,今年下半年特別是第四季度表現不錯,伺服器繼續有季度記錄,第四季度創造了歷史記錄,我們的伺服器晶片。
And I said in desktops and notebooks, which are principally--notebooks are principally business machines, we saw strong numbers in both of those.
我說過,在桌上型電腦和筆記型電腦中,筆記型電腦主要是商用機器,我們在這兩者中都看到了強勁的數字。
Records in notebooks, for example.
例如,在筆記本中記錄。
So if we look at that, our view is that business is expanding, in terms of IT purchases, people are making the trade-off of increasing their CapEx as a savings of OPEX, in terms of driving productivity and driving just IT costs down from servicing old equipment and so forth.
因此,如果我們看一下這一點,我們的觀點是,就 IT 採購而言,業務正在擴張,人們正在權衡增加資本支出以節省營運支出,就提高生產力和將 IT 成本從維修舊設備等。
I believe that trend will continue in 2005.
我相信這種趨勢在2005年將會持續下去。
We see no--we see nothing on the horizon that would stop that and I think that is the one thing that kept us going over the course of this year.
我們看不到——我們看不到任何東西可以阻止這一點,我認為這是讓我們在今年繼續前進的一件事。
In addition to that, what I think gave Q4 a nice boost was the retail and consumer purchases.
除此之外,我認為零售和消費者購買為第四季帶來了很好的推動。
Christmas was very, very good across the globe.
全球各地的聖誕節都非常非常美好。
- Analyst
- Analyst
One follow-up on the corporate side.
公司方面的一個後續行動。
Are there some specific programs coming up that you think would accelerate corporate purchasing such as active management, windows that start to roll across the product line and do you expect that to have a material impact?
您認為是否有一些具體的計劃即將出台,這些計劃將加速企業採購,例如主動管理、開始在整個產品線中滾動的窗口,您認為這會產生重大影響嗎?
- President, COO
- President, COO
It rolls into our client line in the mid-this year, and we'll be making that available to our sales force in terms of how to sell it and when to sell it, probably in the next couple of weeks or so.
它將於今年年中進入我們的客戶系列,我們將向我們的銷售人員提供有關如何銷售它以及何時銷售它的信息,可能在接下來的幾週左右。
But you'll start seeing an advocacy for that.
但你會開始看到對此的倡議。
I don't think that alone will drive a sea change.
我認為僅憑這一點並不能帶來翻天覆地的改變。
That just makes--makes it even more sweet to swap out old equipment for new.
這使得將舊設備換成新設備變得更加甜蜜。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Mark Edelstone with Morgan Stanley.
您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬克‧艾德斯通。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Good afternoon, guys.
下午好,夥計們。
First question is probably for Paul.
第一個問題可能是問保羅的。
Obviously very good growth in both processors and in the support products, the chipsets and motherboards.
顯然,處理器以及支援產品、晶片組和主機板都有非常好的成長。
And in the fourth quarter it's historically been somewhat unusual to see faster growth in the chipsets and motherboards, vis-a-vis processors and that happened here this quarter to the tune of few hundred basis points.
在第四季度,晶片組和主機板以及處理器的成長速度更快,這在歷史上是不尋常的,本季發生了數百個基點的成長。
Can you talk about the dynamics that drove that in the quarter and what the implications of that look to be from your perspective.
您能否談談本季推動這一趨勢的動力以及從您的角度來看這會產生什麼影響。
- President, COO
- President, COO
I think there is 2 things there, Mark.
我認為有兩件事,馬克。
One is that we believe we gained some market segment share in chipsets than we have over the course of the year.
一是我們相信我們在晶片組領域獲得了比去年更多的市場份額。
That's why I talked about the attach rate to our microprocessors increasing substantially over the 4 quarters.
這就是為什麼我談到我們的微處理器的連接率在這四個季度中大幅增長的原因。
Number one.
第一。
Number two, as notebooks grow more rapidly than desktops, we actually--we have a much nicer position in notebook chipsets than desktop chipsets.
第二,隨著筆記型電腦的成長速度比桌上型電腦更快,我們實際上在筆記型電腦組的地位比桌上型電腦晶片組好得多。
So you'll see an acceleration as a result of that.
所以你會看到由此帶來的加速。
Both of those worked in our advantage in the fourth quarter.
這兩個因素在第四季都為我們帶來了優勢。
- Analyst
- Analyst
And just a clarification from Andy.
只是安迪的澄清。
Andy, you talked about the benefit based or the cost, rather, in gross margins in Q4 of 2 to 3 points coming from start-up costs and under utilization charges.
安迪,您談到了基於效益或成本,第四季度的毛利率為 2 到 3 個百分點,來自啟動成本和使用費用。
Can you just give us a sense of what percentage of that 2 or 3 points came from, the start-up costs?
您能否讓我們了解這 2 或 3 個百分點來自啟動成本的百分比是多少?
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Let's see, I won't give you that much.
看看吧,我不會給你那麼多。
I will tell you that under utilization charges were more than 50% of those points, yes.
我會告訴你,使用不足的費用超過了這些點的 50%,是的。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thanks a lot, guys.
非常感謝,夥計們。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
It was close.
很接近了。
It wasn't--it's not vastly different one from the other.
兩者之間並沒有太大的差異。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks a lot.
多謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Michael Masdea with CSFB.
您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸第一波士頓銀行 (CSFB) 的 Michael Masdea。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks a lot.
多謝。
If you think back to kind of your transitions from products, especially gone on the desktop side and then you think about the dual core pricing.
如果您回想一下從產品(尤其是桌面端)的轉變,然後您會想到雙核心定價。
How is that shaking out?
怎麼樣?
Is that going to be similar to past parts transitions or are you looking for substantially higher premiums?
這是否與過去的零件轉換類似,或者您是否正在尋求更高的溢價?
- President, COO
- President, COO
I think we will--it depends on what product you're talking about and when, Michael.
我想我們會的——這取決於你談論的是什麼產品以及什麼時候,邁克爾。
But in general, I think you'll see us bring it in at the high end of the product line probably as an enthusiast product initially and then drive it down over time as the costs come down on 65nms on the desktop.
但總的來說,我認為您會看到我們最初將其作為發燒友產品引入高端產品線,然後隨著時間的推移,隨著桌上型電腦上 65 奈米成本的下降,將其降低。
In notebooks the first dual core product we launch is on 65nm so we've got a very good cost structure.
在筆記型電腦中,我們推出的首款雙核心產品採用 65 奈米工藝,因此我們擁有非常好的成本結構。
So I think you'll see us drive that even more aggressively from the start.
所以我想你會看到我們從一開始就更積極地推動這個目標。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay, and I guess from the CapEx side, Andy, assuming that things are wildly out of whack in terms of the PC market this year, how much can you flex that CapEx or do you feel like more or less it will come from out in that range.
好吧,我想從資本支出來看,安迪,假設今年 PC 市場的情況非常不正常,你可以在多大程度上調整資本支出,或者你覺得它或多或少會來自於那個範圍。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
It won't flex too much, Michael.
它不會彎曲太多,邁克爾。
What you have to recognize is the vast majority of this increase is going into 65nm, which is beginning production this year, and so the start-up costs in the first half kind of tie to that, the capital will kind of tie to that.
你必須認識到,這一增長的絕大多數都進入了今年開始生產的 65nm,因此上半年的啟動成本與此相關,資本也與此相關。
And recognize this is driving the technology treadmill, it is getting better performing products, it's getting lower costs.
並認識到這正在推動技術的發展,它正在生產性能更好的產品,它正在降低成本。
Most of the benefit from this actually occurs in '06 and '07.
大部分好處實際上發生在 06 年和 07 年。
So as is typically the case, every other year you will see a spike in capital, you will see a spike for the equipment for the next generation.
通常情況下,每隔一年你就會看到資本激增,你會看到下一代設備的激增。
And that's what this is.
這就是這個。
It was--given our basic belief that technology, leadership wins, it would take a lot to move us off this number.
鑑於我們的基本信念是技術和領導力獲勝,我們需要付出很大的努力才能擺脫這個數字。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Does that mean we're trending down in '06 and '07 in CapEx?
這是否意味著我們的資本支出在 06 年和 07 年呈下降趨勢?
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Oh, my God.
我的天啊。
Actually, I'll update my capital efficiency chart, and you'll probably get some idea where we're headed.
實際上,我會更新我的資本效率圖表,您可能會了解我們的發展方向。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks a lot.
多謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Andrew Root with Goldman Sachs.
您的下一個問題來自高盛的安德魯·魯特。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks, just a couple quick questions.
謝謝,只是幾個簡單的問題。
The first is if you think about the PC unit growth for '05, just wondering as you think about how you manage production last year, and there was some fits and starts as you mentioned, Andy.
第一個是,如果你考慮一下 05 年 PC 銷量的成長,想知道去年你是如何管理生產的,正如你提到的,安迪,出現了一些間歇性的情況。
Are you going to manage sort of to a target to whatever your expectations are for PC unit gross for the year and sort of take a little bit more swing in inventory and a little less swing in gross margin?
無論您對今年 PC 銷售的預期如何,您是否會設法實現某種目標,並在庫存方面採取更大的波動,並在毛利率方面採取較小的波動?
How can that change?
這怎麼能改變呢?
I'm just curious how you think it all plays out.
我只是好奇你認為這一切會如何發展。
- President, COO
- President, COO
Let me try and take this one, Andrew.
讓我嘗試接受這個,安德魯。
Our modelling profile is assuming that we see double digit growth again in the PC unit scenario.
我們的建模概況假設我們在 PC 設備場景中再次看到兩位數的成長。
We're not forecasting that.
我們沒有預測到這一點。
We're just planning around that in terms of being able to have sufficient capacity.
我們只是圍繞這一點進行規劃,以便能夠擁有足夠的容量。
As Andy indicated, it's in our best interest economically and customer wise to satisfy every order that comes at us.
正如安迪所指出的,滿足我們的每一份訂單都符合我們的最大經濟利益和客戶利益。
So we want to be a little bit long in making sure that we have the ability to satisfy those orders.
因此,我們希望花一點時間來確保我們有能力滿足這些訂單。
At the same time we do that, we're going to be very cognizant of what happened in inventory last year and what were the causes behind it and try to keep a tighter control on the various leavers.
同時,我們將非常清楚去年庫存發生了什麼以及背後的原因是什麼,並努力對各種離職者進行更嚴格的控制。
Having a healthier set of products as we enter '05 versus '04 gives us a lot more granularity and ability to control than we did in '05--than we did last year.
與 04 年相比,我們進入 05 年時擁有了一套更健康的產品,這讓我們比 05 年(去年)擁有更多的粒度和控制能力。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
That makes sense.
這就說得通了。
And then just following up on pricing in the fourth quarter.
然後跟進第四季度的定價。
Flat microprocessor pricing--a little surprising because [inaudible] better.
微處理器定價平坦——有點令人驚訝,因為[聽不清楚]更好。
Was the consumer the offset or were you tougher on pricing for your competitive reasons, or was there a little bit bigger drop in the stack than you expected?
是消費者造成了抵消,還是您出於競爭原因在定價上更加嚴格,或者堆疊的下降幅度是否比您預期的要大一些?
- President, COO
- President, COO
Actually I was kind of happy that it was flattish.
事實上,我很高興它是平坦的。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
If you remember in October we were concerned about our pricing pressure being on margin, so it actually turned out better than we expected.
如果你還記得十月我們擔心我們的定價壓力來自保證金,所以結果實際上比我們預期的要好。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Mark Lipacis with Prudential.
您的下一個問題來自保誠集團的馬克·利帕西斯。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Andy, can you talk about--how should we think about operating expenses for 2005?
安迪,您能談談—我們該如何考慮 2005 年的營運費用?
Thank you.
謝謝。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Sure, as a general rule we talked about R&D and you saw the growth there.
當然,作為一般規則,我們談論了研發,你看到了那裡的成長。
What we would tend to do is probably grow the other expenses along the same lines, the mix is pretty reasonable.
我們傾向於做的可能是沿著同樣的路線增加其他費用,這種組合是相當合理的。
Always R&D comes first here, if business stays healthy you can see all the operating expenses growing in similar type ranges.
研發始終是第一位的,如果業務保持健康,您可以看到所有營運費用都在類似的範圍內成長。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Adam Parker with Sanford Bernstein.
您的下一個問題來自桑福德·伯恩斯坦的亞當·帕克。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Yes, hello.
是的你好。
With your plans to invest I guess $10.3 billion in CapEx plus R&D this year, I'm just trying to think about how you evaluate your ultimate return on that investment, I mean, if I look at changes in your net operating profit versus changes in the capital over the next few years, would I expect that to increase?
根據您的投資計劃,我猜今年的資本支出加上研發費用為103 億美元,我只是想考慮一下您如何評估該投資的最終回報,我的意思是,如果我看看您的淨利潤變化與淨利潤變化未來幾年的資本,我預計會增加嗎?
I guess what I'm wondering is how do you justify that kind of spending and how do you think about reaping its benefits.
我想我想知道的是你如何證明這種支出的合理性以及你如何考慮獲得其好處。
You mentioned a couple years out, but can you qualify that more?
你提到了幾年後的情況,但你能進一步說明這一點嗎?
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
It will be hard for me to give you the answer you're looking for, Adam.
我很難給你你正在尋找的答案,亞當。
We do on all of these investments an ROI and we look at what we think the future cash flows will be versus doing investment versus not doing the investment.
我們對所有這些投資進行投資報酬率,並考慮我們認為未來現金流量與進行投資與不進行投資的情況。
When I started working with Craig years ago, who tried to slow down the rate of technology, because I thought it didn't get the return, because we didn't use it long enough, and he gave me the assignment to go off and do the analysis and lo and behold the benefit you get from lower costs of the product plus the better performing product and the ability to protect your price stack, it is an enormous return.
幾年前,當我開始與克雷格合作時,他試圖放慢技術的發展速度,因為我認為它沒有得到回報,因為我們使用它的時間不夠長,他給了我一個任務,讓我離開並進行分析,您會發現您從較低的產品成本加上性能更好的產品以及保護您的價格堆疊的能力中獲得的好處,這是巨大的回報。
So we still do that for each new generation.
所以我們仍然為每一代這樣做。
We do that for each new factory.
我們為每個新工廠都這樣做。
And what I can tell you, the returns on these investments are well above our weight average cost of capital.
我可以告訴你的是,這些投資的回報遠高於我們的加權平均資本成本。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Interesting you mentioned that--if you look I think a couple years ago in 2003, Intel got a lot of credit for so called investing through the downturn.
有趣的是,你提到了這一點——如果你看的話,我想幾年前的 2003 年,英特爾因所謂的經濟低迷時期投資而獲得了很多讚譽。
And I guess I'm wondering, did we already see all the benefits of that investment?
我想我想知道,我們是否已經看到了這項投資的所有好處?
In other words, the 9.2 billion in CapEx you spent during those peak 4 quarters.
換句話說,您在這 4 個季度的高峰期間花費了 92 億美元的資本支出。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Oh, no.
不好了。
You have not yet seen all the return for those.
你還沒有看到這些的全部回報。
Again, remember how we waterfall the capital equipment.
再次記住我們如何瀑布式分配資本設備。
So today chipsets are still built on the 200-millimeter network.
因此,如今晶片組仍建構在 200 毫米網路上。
Those will still move into that 300-millimeter network and take advantage of the cost that come from that and the new technology that comes from being on more advanced processes.
這些仍將進入 300 毫米網絡,並利用由此產生的成本以及來自更先進製程的新技術。
So with the waterfalling program we have, once the chipsets get through those, another product will come through those processes.
因此,透過我們的瀑布式計劃,一旦晶片組通過這些流程,另一種產品就會通過這些流程。
We can extend the life of those factories and most of that equipment for well beyond the "2 years" that it would takes to turn it over because it water falls to another product line.
我們可以將這些工廠和大部分設備的壽命延長到遠遠超過「兩年」的時間,因為它們的水會落在另一條生產線上。
- Analyst
- Analyst
All right.
好的。
One last follow-up.
最後一個後續行動。
Sorry.
對不起。
Is your delta notepad over delta capital employed going up over the next 5 years?
您的 Delta 記事本上所使用的 Delta 資本在未來 5 年內會增加嗎?
Because you sort of said that you do this analysis.
因為你說過你做了這個分析。
If it turns out that it has gotten worse over the last few years.
如果事實證明過去幾年情況變得更糟。
I agree it is way above your cost of capital.
我同意這遠高於你的資本成本。
I'm just trying to understand what the plan or the direction or the trend or return of that return metric that you guys use.
我只是想了解你們使用的回報指標的計劃或方向或趨勢或回報。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
I haven't done the math and I don't want to make it up on the spot.
我還沒算過,也不想當場補上。
I'll go look at that and when we see you guys in the next quarter or so we can talk about it.
我會去看看,當我們在下個季度見到你們時,我們可以討論這個問題。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Cool, thanks.
酷,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Glenn Young with Smith Barney.
您的下一個問題來自美邦的 Glenn Young。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks.
謝謝。
You know, just sticking with the CapEx question, I wonder if you can give us a break down in your CapEx [inaudible - microphone inaccessible].
您知道,只是堅持資本支出問題,我想知道您是否可以向我們詳細介紹一下您的資本支出[聽不清楚 - 麥克風無法訪問]。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Historically we've been a third bricks and mortar, a third equivalent going into the factories and third off of all other, engineering labs, and things like that.
從歷史上看,我們一直是第三個實體,第三個相當於進入工廠的第三個,第三個是所有其他的工程實驗室和類似的東西。
If you take that as our historical third baseline and then you take the increase and put most of it--most of it, not all of it--into equipment, you get a pretty good split.
如果你把它當作我們歷史上的第三個基線,然後你把增加的部分——大部分,不是全部——投入到設備中,你就會得到一個相當不錯的分配。
So it will be more heavily allocated into equivalent for fab in '05.
因此,它將更多地分配到 05 年晶圓廠的同等金額中。
- Analyst
- Analyst
[inaudible - microphone inaccessible] on your back end utilization range, both sort of internally and externally, how do you think that is, as we go into the first quarter?
[聽不清楚 - 麥克風無法存取]關於您的後端利用率範圍,無論是內部還是外部,當我們進入第一季時,您認為情況如何?
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
I think if you look at not only the back end or front end right now, the manufacturing capabilities is pretty fully utilized.
我認為,如果你現在不僅專注於後端或前端,你會發現製造能力已經被充分利用了。
We're certainly--one of the things we're trying to do is make sure we have capability in the back end to satisfy the need.
當然,我們正在努力做的事情之一就是確保我們有能力在後端滿足需求。
The area we were short first in the fourth quarter, and later in the fourth quarter, I wish I had more dye as well.
我們在第四節首先短缺的區域,然後在第四節晚些時候,我希望我也有更多的染料。
So again, we're trying to make sure we have the capacity available every place.
因此,我們再次努力確保每個地方都有可用的容量。
Right now the factory is very busy.
現在工廠很忙。
- Analyst
- Analyst
That is one clarification and an answer you gave earlier, you talked about your guidance, your expectations for first quarter revenues, based on lower than what we might normally see sequentially because you felt like your year-over-year at 12% was somewhere you are comfortable with.
這是您之前給出的一個澄清和答案,您談到了您的指導,您對第一季收入的預期,基於低於我們通常連續看到的水平,因為您覺得12% 的同比增長率是您的預期很舒服。
Given that your inventories are low, are there any signs from customers that you are actually seeing explicitly tells you that you are sequentially lower than normal?
鑑於您的庫存較低,您實際上看到的客戶是否有任何跡像明確表明您的庫存連續低於正常水平?
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
No.
不。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Apjit Walia with RBC.
您的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Apjit Walia。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks, great quarter, guys.
謝謝,夥計們,很棒的季度。
The question I had is in terms of your current trend, you obviously seen above seasonal trend for Q4, and you got it relatively in line with seasonality with Q1, now you guys typically lead the cycle on the way up and the way down, there seems to be disconnect with what you're seeing and what that majority of semi companies are seeing for Q4 and Q1, I believe.
我的問題是就你目前的趨勢而言,你顯然看到了第四季度的季節性趨勢,並且你得到的結果與第一季度的季節性趨勢相對一致,現在你們通常在上升和下降的過程中引領週期,在那裡我相信,這似乎與您所看到的以及大多數半導體公司在第四季度和第一季看到的情況脫節。
Can you explain the disconnect here in terms of your demand and what everybody else is seeing.
您能否根據您的需求和其他人所看到的情況來解釋這裡的脫節?
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
The target we reconcile my in demand to theirs.
我們的目標是將我的需求與他們的需求相協調。
I think the PC space is having a pretty good--had a pretty good fourth quarter.
我認為個人電腦領域的第四季表現相當不錯。
I don't see how that--well, again, we've given it outlook for the Q1 that's kind of seasonal off of that good fourth quarter and I can't explain other people's business very well.
我不明白這是怎麼回事——好吧,我們再次給出了第一季的前景,這有點像第四季度的季節性特點,我無法很好地解釋其他人的業務。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Right.
正確的。
In terms of units, you've given the margin guidance for '05, when do you think units could blossom and could you give some sort of a unit assumption for '05?
就單位而言,您已經給出了 05 年的利潤指導,您認為單位何時會蓬勃發展,您能否為 05 年提供某種單位假設?
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
As Paul said, we don't forecast the PC marketplace for the year.
正如保羅所說,我們不會預測今年的個人電腦市場。
Our internal planning is, I think you said 10% double digit, to make sure we can support the market if it grows at that rate.
我們的內部規劃是,我想你說的是 10% 兩位數,以確保我們能夠支持市場以這個速度成長。
Typically--
通常 -
- President, COO
- President, COO
Typical pattern is the first half of the year is below the peak--prior fourth quarter and then you get sequential growth in Q3 and Q4.
典型的模式是上半年低於第四季之前的峰值,然後第三季和第四季出現連續成長。
Right now that's what we're guiding you towards and that's what we've built into our financial assumption.
現在,這就是我們引導您實現的目標,也是我們在財務假設中建立的目標。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
And one clarification, is there some sort of a shift in seasonality in terms of with India, with the first quarter in India being stronger than typical and then New York coming in early and China.
需要澄清的是,印度的季節性是否存在某種變化,印度第一季的表現強於典型水平,然後紐約和中國的表現較早。
Do you think there is some seasonal shift changing especially with Asia becoming more relevant in demand?
您認為季節性變化是否會發生變化,特別是隨著亞洲的需求變得越來越重要?
- President, COO
- President, COO
Not really.
並不真地。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Michael Mcconnell with Pacific Crest Securities.
您的下一個問題來自 Pacific Crest Securities 的 Michael McConnell。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Question is actually for Paul on the flash front.
問題實際上是針對閃電俠的保羅。
Your competitor yesterday had some difficulty on the flash--on their flash revenues.
你的競爭對手昨天在閃存方面遇到了一些困難——他們的閃存收入。
I was curious what pricing is like, what you're seeing in that segment.
我很好奇定價是怎麼樣的,你在這個細分市場中看到了什麼。
And more importantly, demand, really from from an industry perspective.
更重要的是,需求,確實是從產業角度來看的。
- President, COO
- President, COO
Well, you know, as I said, we had unit growth sequentially from Q3 to Q4, and it was all in revenue is about flat and it was offset by pricing pressure.
嗯,你知道,正如我所說,從第三季度到第四季度,我們的單位數量連續增長,而且收入基本上持平,並被定價壓力所抵消。
If I were to kind of take 2 slices of the flash market in which we participate, it's--there is the cellular market and there is the broad market, and the pricing in the broad market segment was a bit more brutal than it was in the cellular market where the products are designed in and we have contracts and certainly competitive, but it is not nearly as real-time competitive as you see in the broad market.
如果我要從我們參與的快閃記憶體市場中分出兩塊,那就是——一個是蜂窩市場,一個是廣闊的市場,而廣闊的細分市場的定價比以前的要殘酷一些。產品設計所在的蜂窩市場,我們有合同,當然具有競爭力,但它並不像您在廣闊市場中看到的那樣實時競爭。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Great.
偉大的。
And then 1 more question for you, Paul, as well.
保羅,還有一個問題想問你。
Could you just--you talked about retail sales being very good across the board.
您剛才談到零售銷售全面良好。
How are they specifically in North America?
他們在北美的具體情況如何?
- President, COO
- President, COO
I think I gave a specific comment on North America in the commentary but they were good.
我想我在評論中對北美做了具體的評論,但他們很好。
They were particularly good if you count the direct sales to consumers.
如果算上對消費者的直接銷售,它們就特別好。
As we look at this thing, we look at both retail and the portion of our output is likely to go to consumers through direct channels.
當我們看待這個問題時,我們會同時關注零售業和我們的部分產出可能會透過直接管道流向消費者。
The combination of those 2 in North America we think was a very strong consumer quarter.
我們認為,這兩個因素在北美的結合是一個非常強勁的消費季度。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Your text question comes from Charlie Glavin with Needham & Company.
您的文字問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Charlie Glavin。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks.
謝謝。
Actually Andy, a quick housekeeping in terms of the one-time tax pass-through from the repatriation, can you give a little more clarity on that, and did that influence any additional spending from the CapEx from the follow-up.
實際上,安迪,在匯回的一次性稅收轉嫁方面的快速內務管理,您能否更清楚地說明這一點,以及這是否影響了後續資本支出的任何額外支出。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Sure, at this point we--the IRS and Treasury Department haven't published the final rules, yet.
當然,目前我們——美國國稅局和財政部還沒有公佈最終規則。
So we're kind of on hold to make sure were understand the rules from the government so that we can optimize inside that program.
因此,我們有點猶豫,以確保我們了解政府的規則,以便我們可以在該計劃內進行最佳化。
As a result, it has not influenced any programs yet because we don't know what does or doesn't count.
因此,它還沒有影響任何程序,因為我們不知道什麼重要,什麼不重要。
- Analyst
- Analyst
And then, Paul, if I could, you mentioned about your plans last year as far as upping the channel support in the emerging regions.
然後,保羅,如果可以的話,您提到了您去年關於加強新興地區通路支援的計劃。
Exiting out the year and going into '05, how much of that will shift towards more the EPSC, more the enterprise efforts as opposed to some of the desktop and notebook efforts that you had in '04?
結束今年並進入 05 年,其中有多少將轉向更多 EPSC、更多企業工作,而不是 04 年的一些桌上型電腦和筆記型電腦工作?
- President, COO
- President, COO
Well, as we expand the channels, we try to put the whole breadth of the product line into each new distribution point.
嗯,當我們擴展通路時,我們嘗試將整個產品線放入每個新的分銷點。
It is a little harder when you get to countries like Nigeria and Iraq.
當你到達尼日利亞和伊拉克等國家時,情況會有點困難。
We're operating now with some of these channel partners, but the demand for low-end servers certainly is there and we'll supply that through EPSC.
我們現在正在與其中一些通路合作夥伴合作,但對低階伺服器的需求肯定存在,我們將透過 EPSC 提供這些需求。
The whitebook business, that is, the channel notebook business, is also growing nicely in the incremental cities we brought on.
白本業務,也就是通路筆記本業務,在我們帶來的增量城市也成長得很好。
I am not comfortable giving you the share of our server chips that go out to the channel but it is a non-trivial amount.
我不願意向您提供我們進入頻道的伺服器晶片的份額,但這是一個不小的數額。
It is a fairly large chunk of the business.
這是該業務的相當大的一部分。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Paul, if I could then, can can you give a rough estimate in terms of the employees who seem to recall out of Oregon that you guys are approaching almost 10,000 employees that are really supporting that channel effort directly or indirectly including wills [ph] software efforts.
保羅,如果可以的話,您能否粗略估計一下俄勒岡州的員工數量,您正在接近近 10,000 名員工,他們真正直接或間接支持該管道工作,包括遺囑 [ph] 軟體努力。
Is that a right way of looking at this?
這是看待這個問題的正確方式嗎?
- President, COO
- President, COO
No, I don't--10,000 Intel employees supporting our channel business?
不,我不知道——10,000 名英特爾員工支持我們的通路業務?
- Analyst
- Analyst
Directly and indirectly including your partners?
直接和間接包括您的合作夥伴?
- President, COO
- President, COO
Well, oh, if you count the number of sales people, I mean we have 165,000 authorized dealers, at least 165,000 people.
嗯,哦,如果算上銷售人員的數量的話,我是說我們有165,000個授權經銷商,至少有165,000人。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
- President, COO
- President, COO
I mean, I wouldn't even begin to figure out what the number is.
我的意思是,我甚至不會開始弄清楚這個數字是多少。
At one point in time I calculated there were over a million people selling our products but that was a couple of years ago.
在某個時間點,我計算出有超過一百萬人銷售我們的產品,但那是幾年前的事了。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Got it.
知道了。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Kevin Rottinghaus with Midwest Research.
您的下一個問題來自中西部研究中心的 Kevin Rottinghaus。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks.
謝謝。
Any indications on finished product levels finishing the year and coming out of the holidays?
有關於今年結束和假期結束後的成品水平的任何跡象嗎?
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
You're asking our customers?
你在問我們的客戶嗎?
Do our customers have inventory build, is that the question?
我們的客戶是否有庫存,這是問題所在嗎?
- Analyst
- Analyst
They're also out in the channel, so boards are finished PCs out in the channel overall.
它們也在通路中出售,因此主機板總體上是通路中出售的成品 PC。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
None that we can identify.
我們無法辨識。
The better people to ask is our customers and what their inventory situations look like.
最好詢問我們的客戶以及他們的庫存情況。
In a channel there doesn't seem to be a build.
在頻道中似乎沒有構建。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then on the 65nm ramp, do you have targets, or have you announced any targets at what percentage shipments will be on 65 at year-end and when you start to ship for revenue in 65?
然後在 65 奈米製程上,你們有目標嗎?或者你們有沒有宣布過年底 65 晶片出貨量以及 65 晶片何時開始出貨的目標?
- President, COO
- President, COO
What we said is that we will ship for revenue products off of that process in 2005 and have not gotten more granular than that.
我們所說的是,我們將在 2005 年透過該流程交付收入產品,並且還沒有得到比這更細化的資訊。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
- President, COO
- President, COO
And we've demonstrated one of those chips, already.
我們已經展示了其中一款晶片。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And I guess the last question, any benefit this quarter, you talked about an inventory build to OEMs, can you quantify at all what kind of benefit that might have had for you inside this quarter versus what percentage of the 15% was actual real demand?
我想最後一個問題,本季的任何好處,您談到了 OEM 的庫存建設,您能否量化本季度內可能為您帶來的好處以及 15% 中實際需求的百分比?
- President, COO
- President, COO
It was all real demand.
這都是真實的需求。
I think what I commented on was that into the end of the third quarter if you recall we were a little disappointed versus the final result, because we had had some cancellations towards the end of the quarter from some of our largest customers who were trying to keep their inventories very thin.
我想我評論的是,到第三季末,如果你還記得我們對最終結果有點失望的話,因為我們在本季度末有一些最大的客戶取消了一些訂單,他們試圖保持庫存非常薄弱。
We did not see that this quarter.
本季我們沒有看到這一點。
So I think I am quite certain that what was purchased this quarter went for builds.
所以我認為我非常確定本季購買的東西用於構建。
People aren't sitting on our parts.
人們沒有坐在我們的位置上。
They're--it's just too costly.
他們的成本太高了。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
- Director of Investor Relations
- Director of Investor Relations
Operator we'll take 2 more questions, please.
接線員,我們再回答 2 個問題。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Cody Acree with Legg Mason.
您的下一個問題來自 Legg Mason 的 Cody Acree。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Thanks.
謝謝。
As you push through 2005 and begin to ramp dual core and volume, what impact could we expect maybe in the second half of the year, maybe even then going into 2006 to utilization rates and fab loadings, as that begins to be a bigger piece of revenue.
隨著 2005 年的到來並開始增加雙核心和產量,我們預計下半年甚至可能進入 2006 年會對利用率和晶圓廠負荷產生什麼影響,因為這開始成為一個更大的部分收入。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
I don't think you'll see anything unusual.
我認為你不會看到任何不尋常的事情。
As Paul said before, for this particular year, there is no change to our lowering capacity plan for dual core, you know, next year we'll have the product on the same treadmill we have every other product which is increasingly smaller.
正如保羅之前所說,在今年,我們降低雙核容量的計劃沒有變化,你知道,明年我們將在同一個跑步機上使用該產品,我們擁有其他越來越小的產品。
Taking advantage of 65nms.
利用 65nm 的優勢。
I actually have said I think that the price of the--the cost of the product will continue down as we ramp new technologies and ramp into new products.
事實上,我已經說過,我認為隨著我們推出新技術並推出新產品,產品的成本將繼續下降。
- Analyst
- Analyst
And can you just give a quick level set on what your changes recently have been in the road map for dual core introductions?
您能否快速介紹一下您最近在雙核引入路線圖中所做的更改?
- President, COO
- President, COO
Well, there have been no changes from the last update which I believe was at the analysts meeting and that meeting we identified 3 dual-core products shipping next year, one for server, one for desktop and one for notebook.
嗯,與上次更新(我認為是在分析師會議上)相比沒有任何變化,在那次會議上我們確定了明年將推出3 款雙核產品,一款用於伺服器,一款用於桌上型電腦,一款用於筆記型電腦。
I plotted out the exit rate for '05 and '06 and the percentage of each of those businesses as dual core as a fraction of our shipment.
我繪製了 05 年和 06 年的退出率,以及每項雙核心業務占我們出貨量的比例。
I don't remember the numbers off the top of my head but they have not changed from that update.
我不記得我腦子裡的數字,但它們自更新以來並沒有改變。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay, great.
好的,太好了。
And lastly, Andy, you said that demand obviously was a little higher than you expected.
最後,安迪,您說需求顯然比您預期的要高一些。
Were you able to ship and sell any of the inventory that you previously needed to write down?
您是否能夠運送和銷售之前需要減記的庫存?
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Boy, there is no increased to margin for selling previously reserved inventory.
天哪,出售先前保留的庫存並沒有增加保證金。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Thanks.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Your final question comes from Ben Lynch from Deutsche Bank.
最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的本·林奇。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Lucky me.
幸運的我。
Sorry.
對不起。
I feel like I might be flogging a dead horse on this, but I'm going to come back to it.
我覺得我可能會在這件事上白費力氣,但我會回到這個主題。
The Q4 revenues beat your initial expectations in the end by about 7 to 8% which actually corresponds to the extra week which you're having in Q1, with the Q1 seasonality.
第四季度的收入最終超出了您最初的預期約 7% 到 8%,這實際上對應於您在第一季因季節性因素而多花了一周的時間。
It seems like you have this extra week benefiting Q4 instead of Q1, and I'm trying to understand, is this just conservatism, did you get some extra business in Q4, or, you know, help me understand that and I have a follow-up please.
看來你有這額外的一周受益於第四季度而不是第一季度,我試圖理解,這只是保守主義嗎?你在第四季度獲得了一些額外的業務嗎?或者,你知道,幫助我理解這一點,我有一個追蹤者請向上。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
This is going to be hard for me to help you understand.
我很難幫助你理解這一點。
In the fourth quarter, what we think we saw was just good solid demand.
在第四季度,我們認為我們看到的是良好的穩定需求。
As Paul said, people took the parts and did something with them and did their business.
正如保羅所說,人們拿走這些零件,用它們做一些事情,做他們的事情。
In the first quarter, there is an extra week, you know, we've been through this extra week a couple of times and in our past experience you can never quantify exactly what you get.
在第一季度,有一個額外的一周,你知道,我們已經經歷過幾次額外的一周,根據我們過去的經驗,你永遠無法準確量化你得到了什麼。
And I typically won't make an entire week worth of sales.
我通常不會完成整整一周的銷售。
I'll say it is something less.
我會說這是更少的東西。
It's just an estimate.
這只是一個估計。
So it's really hard to be able to tell you precisely what you get for the extra week.
所以很難準確地告訴你額外一周你得到了什麼。
Am I being a little cautious?
我是不是有點謹慎了?
Maybe, but I don't think so.
也許吧,但我不這麼認為。
Again, 12% year-over-year is good solid growth in the first quarter.
同樣,第一季年增 12% 是良好的穩健成長。
Q4 was a very good quarter.
第四季是一個非常好的季度。
I'm comfortable starting with a midpoint of 9.1, and I'd be delighted to be able to come back and say I was low again.
我對以 9.1 的中點開始感到滿意,我很高興能夠回來並說我再次處於低位。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay, great.
好的,太好了。
Just the follow-up--I just want to make sure I understand again the start-up costs.
只是後續行動——我只是想確保我再次了解啟動成本。
You're seeing in the first half in cogs and therefore presumably you'll see it back in OPEX in the second half.
您在上半年看到了齒輪,因此您可能會在下半年看到它在營運支出中回來。
So does this mean we're going to have sort of a much bigger second half R&D than we do in the first half?
那麼這是否意味著我們下半年的研發規模將比上半年大得多?
And related to that, is the OPEX guidance for Q1 on a 14 week basis and it will drop off in the second quarter?
與此相關的是,第一季的營運支出指引是否以 14 週為基礎,並且會在第二季下降?
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
The OPEX we guide to includes a 14-week, in that--in the outlook and it would drop back off.
我們指導的 OPEX 包括 14 週,展望未來,它將回落。
Keep in mind also the annual rate is to take place on the first of April so you get a little bit of up tick to that in the second quarter, so as you do your models.
還要記住,年利率將於四月一日發生,因此在第二季度,您在製作模型時會比年利率略有上升。
Your other question was about when we start to see the start-up costs roll off?
您的另一個問題是我們什麼時候開始看到啟動成本下降?
You're getting into a pretty technical space.
你正在進入一個非常技術性的領域。
It won't transition back to R&D.
它不會轉回研發。
What those factories will do once they're qualified to build products on 65nm process is they will begin to build products eligible for sale that actually turns into cost of sales associated with a product that is recognized as expense when the product is shipped for revenue.
一旦這些工廠有資格在 65 奈米製程上生產產品,他們將開始生產符合銷售條件的產品,這些產品實際上會轉化為與產品相關的銷售成本,在產品發貨以獲取收入時被確認為費用。
So it doesn't go to R&D.
所以它不會用於研發。
It actually goes into manufacturing production.
它實際上進入了製造生產。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Okay, so we're just talking about, once at start-up costs you see it in the quarter that you incur that cost and once it goes into product you see it whenever that product is sold out of inventory.
好的,所以我們只是在談論,一旦計算啟動成本,您就會在產生該成本的季度看到它,一旦進入產品,只要該產品售完庫存,您就會看到它。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Some of that.
其中一些。
But also recognize that some of it doesn't repeat.
但也要認識到其中一些內容不會重複。
For example, one of the things you do when you're starting up a factory or getting the process ready is you do test wafers.
例如,當您開設工廠或準備流程時,您要做的事情之一就是測試晶圓。
Those are wafers you run to make sure the process works and doesn't go away.
這些是您運行的晶圓,以確保該過程正常運行並且不會消失。
We won't run a bunch of product to throw away.
我們不會運行一堆產品來丟掉。
We won't waste that material.
我們不會浪費這些材料。
So you don't see 100% of the cost go into cost of sales.
因此,您不會看到 100% 的成本都計入銷售成本。
What you see is some fraction of that cost.
您看到的只是該成本的一小部分。
- Analyst
- Analyst
Right.
正確的。
Okay, thanks very much for that explanation, Andy.
好的,非常感謝您的解釋,安迪。
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
- Chief Financial and Enterprise Services Officer, EVP
Sure.
當然。
- Director of Investor Relations
- Director of Investor Relations
Okay.
好的。
We'd like to thank everyone for listening to today's call.
我們要感謝大家收聽今天的電話會議。
A recorded playback of this call will be available at approximately 5:00 p.m.
此通話的錄音重播將於下午 5:00 左右提供。
Pacific Time tonight.
今晚太平洋時間。
Those interested should dial 1-800-642-1687, and reference pass code 3037058.
有興趣者請撥 1-800-642-1687,參考密碼 3037058。
Thank you and good night.
謝謝,晚安。
Operator
Operator
That concludes this evening's Intel Q4 '04 earnings conference call.
今晚的英特爾 04 年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。
You may now disconnect.
您現在可以斷開連線。