ING Groep NV (ING) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. This is Saskia welcoming you to ING's second quarter 2025 conference call. Before handing this conference call over to Steven Van Rijswijk, Chief Executive Officer of ING Group, let me first say that today's comments may include forward-looking statements such as statements regarding future developments in our business, expectations for our future financial performance, and any statement not involving a historical fact.

    早安.我是 Saskia,歡迎您參加 ING 2025 年第二季電話會議。在將本次電話會議交給荷蘭國際集團首席執行官史蒂芬·範·里斯維克(Steven Van Rijswijk)之前,我首先要說明的是,今天的評論可能包括前瞻性陳述,例如有關我們業務未來發展、對我們未來財務業績的預期以及任何不涉及歷史事實的陳述。

  • Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement. A discussion of factors that may cause actual results to differ from those in any forward-looking statement is contained in our public filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and our earnings press release as posted on our website today.

    實際結果可能與任何前瞻性聲明中預測的結果有重大差異。對於可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性聲明中的結果不同的因素的討論包含在我們的公開文件中,包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 20-F 表年度報告和我們今天在我們網站上發布的收益新聞稿。

  • Furthermore, nothing in today's comments constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Good morning, Steven. Over to you.

    此外,今天的評論不構成出售任何證券的要約或購買任何證券的要約邀請。早安,史蒂文。交給你了。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • Great, thank you very much and good morning everybody. Welcome to our results call for the second quarter of '25. I hope that you're all well and thank you for joining us. And as usual, I'm joined by our CR Liliana [Choran] and our CFO, Tanate Phutrakul.

    太好了,非常感謝,大家早安。歡迎參加我們 2025 年第二季的業績電話會議。我希望你們一切都好,感謝你們加入我們。像往常一樣,我們的 CR Liliana [Choran] 和我們的財務長 Tanate Phutrakul 也一同出席了會議。

  • The second quarter started with sharp market volatility as well as macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, and in that context we are pleased with our strong results which we will discuss in today's presentation.

    第二季開始時市場劇烈波動,宏觀經濟和地緣政治也充滿不確定性,在這種背景下,我們對強勁的業績感到滿意,我們將在今天的演講中討論這一點。

  • We have continued to successfully execute on a strategy, and I will start with sharing some highlights of the progress that we're making on the priorities that we set on our capital markets day just over a year ago and thereafter we'll walk you through the quarterly financials. And as always, we will be happy to take your questions at the end of the call.

    我們繼續成功執行一項策略,我將首先分享我們在一年多前資本市場日設定的優先事項上取得的一些進展亮點,然後我們將向您介紹季度財務狀況。像往常一樣,我們將很樂意在通話結束時回答您的問題。

  • Now let's move to slide 2. This slide illustrates our continuing strong growth trajectory in the second quarter. We grew the mobile primary customer base by more than 300,000 customers, which underscores the strength of our offering.

    現在我們來看投影片 2。這張投影片展示了我們第二季持續強勁的成長軌跡。我們的行動主要客戶群增加了 30 多萬名客戶,凸顯了我們產品的實力。

  • With growth of more than 1.1 million mobile primary customers in the last 12 months, we are doing well compared to the target that we set at Capital Markets Day. We also record a significant growth in our loan book.

    過去 12 個月,我們的行動主要客戶數量增加了 110 多萬,與資本市場日設定的目標相比,我們的表現良好。我們的貸款帳簿也出現了顯著成長。

  • Net core lending and retail banking grew by a record of EUR11.3 billion, which was again mainly driven by mortgages, while we also support our clients with additional business lending and consumer lending. In wholesale banking, net core lending growth was EUR4 billion as we finance more working capital and increase our short term trades related financing.

    淨核心貸款和零售銀行業務成長了創紀錄的 113 億歐元,這主要歸功於抵押貸款,同時我們也為客戶提供額外的商業貸款和消費貸款。在批發銀行業務中,核心貸款淨增加了 40 億歐元,因為我們為更多營運資金提供了資金,並增加了短期交易相關融資。

  • Demand for long term corporate loans has remained subdued in the current insuring macroeconomic environment. Net core deposit growth was over EUR6 billion also driven by retail banking, which benefited from the seasonality of holiday allowances.

    在當前的宏觀經濟環境下,長期企業貸款需求仍然低迷。淨核心存款成長超過 60 億歐元,這也得益於零售銀行業務,受益於假期津貼的季節性。

  • And also banking, we continued attracting deposits in payments and cash management and money markets, but this was more than offset by lower short term client balances in our cash pooling business. With 7% annualized growth in customer balances in the first half of the year, we are well on track to reach our target of 4% per annum.

    此外,在銀行業務方面,我們繼續吸引支付、現金管理和貨幣市場的存款,但這被現金池業務中較低的短期客戶餘額所抵消。今年上半年客戶餘額年化成長率達到 7%,我們可望實現年化成長率 4% 的目標。

  • On the P&L side, our focus on further diversifying our income streams is yielding solid structural changes to income composition. Fee income increased by 11% the first the first half of 2024 and now makes up almost 20% of our total income.

    在損益方面,我們專注於進一步實現收入來源多樣化,從而為收入組成帶來實質的結構性變化。2024 年上半年費用收入成長了 11%,現在占我們總收入的近 20%。

  • We are confident that we can grow at the high end of our 5% to 10% range this year and confirm our EUR5 billion fee income target for 2027. Our four quarter rolling average ROE was 12.7% and also there we have improved our outlook for the full year.

    我們有信心,今年我們的成長率能夠達到 5% 至 10% 左右,並確定 2027 年 50 億歐元的費用收入目標。我們的四個季度滾動平均 ROE 為 12.7%,我們也改善了全年的展望。

  • We continue to support clients in their sustainability transitions. And with the volume of sustainable finance mobilized, rising 19% from the first half of last year to EUR68 billion. Now we go to the next slides where I will give more insight on customer growth.

    我們將繼續支持客戶的可持續發展轉型。永續融資額較去年上半年成長 19%,達到 680 億歐元。現在我們看下一張投影片,我將在其中更深入地介紹客戶成長。

  • On slide 3, we showed that we have significantly increased the pace of customer acquisition in the last few years, which is clear evidence of the appreciation of our products and services. And over the past 12 months, our customer base has expanded by almost 1.2 million customers, and we are currently serving more than 40 million private individuals globally.

    在投影片 3 上,我們展示了過去幾年我們顯著提高了客戶獲取的速度,這清楚地證明了我們的產品和服務受到讚賞。在過去的 12 個月中,我們的客戶群擴大了近 120 萬名客戶,目前我們為全球超過 4,000 萬個人提供服務。

  • Customer acquisition is a key driver of future value as it also leads to a growing mobile primary customer base. Cross selling products and converting customers to mobile primary customers is most successful in the first year of onboarding, a period which we call the honeymoon phase.

    客戶獲取是未來價值的關鍵驅動力,因為它還可以帶來行動主要客戶群的不斷成長。交叉銷售產品並將客戶轉化為行動主要客戶在入職的第一年最為成功,這段時期我們稱之為蜜月期。

  • However, also after this honeymoon phase, our customers continued to buy more products from us and choose us as their primary bank. Now on the next page, I will explain why we focus on increasing our mobile primary customer base.

    然而,即使在這個蜜月期之後,我們的客戶仍然繼續從我們這裡購買更多產品,並選擇我們作為他們的主要銀行。現在在下一頁,我將解釋為什麼我們專注於增加我們的行動主要客戶群。

  • Then we move to slide 4 and there you see on the left hand side of the slide, you see that the number of primary and mobile primary customers is increasing. At the end of the second quarter, more than 41% of all of our customers chose ING as their primary bank.

    然後我們轉到幻燈片 4,您可以看到幻燈片左側的主要客戶和移動主要客戶的數量正在增加。截至第二季末,超過 41% 的客戶選擇 ING 作為其首選銀行。

  • And these mobile primary customers buy more products, show lower attrition, and generate higher revenues. And we see significant upside to further increased conversion rates, especially in countries with a relatively low conversion rates such as Germany and Spain.

    這些行動主要客戶購買更多產品、流失率更低並產生更高的收入。我們看到轉換率有顯著的進一步提高空間,特別是在德國和西班牙等轉換率相對較低的國家。

  • And this also drives our focus on broadening our foundations. The second quarter growth in customers also resulted in further growth in customer balances and as we show on slide 5.

    這也促使我們專注於拓寬我們的基礎。第二季客戶數量的成長也導致客戶餘額的進一步成長,正如我們在第 5 張投影片上所顯示的那樣。

  • Average customer lending balances have increased significantly, especially in the last 12 months, and this growth was fully driven by retail banking and mortgages in particular, which is in line with our strategy to allocate more capital towards this business line.

    平均客戶貸款餘額大幅增加,尤其是在過去 12 個月,這一增長完全由零售銀行業務和抵押貸款業務推動,這符合我們向該業務線分配更多資本的策略。

  • Average customer deposits have also risen considerably since 2024 due to good momentum in both retail and wholesale banking, and this growth in volume has helped offset the margin pressure on NII in recent quarters and will be a key driver for value going forward.

    由於零售銀行和批發銀行業務發展勢頭良好,自 2024 年以來,平均客戶存款也大幅增加,這種數量增長有助於抵消近幾個季度 NII 的利潤壓力,並將成為未來價值增長的主要驅動力。

  • On slide 6, we recap how our strategic execution has also enabled us to consistently deliver value for our shareholders. We have distributed cash dividends in line with our distribution policy and have been executing share buybacks for a number of years now.

    在第 6 張投影片上,我們回顧了我們的策略執行如何使我們能夠持續為股東創造價值。我們依照分配政策派發現金股利,並且多年來一直在執行股票回購。

  • In total we have distributed close to EUR30 billion since 2021, including the announced interim dividend over the first half of 2025, which will be paid on August 11. And as a result of these distributions, we have consistently delivered a yield of more than 15% in the last few quarters, and this is significant but even more impressive given the increase in our share price over the same period.

    自 2021 年以來,我們總共分配了近 300 億歐元,其中包括宣布的 2025 年上半年中期股息,該股息將於 8 月 11 日支付。由於這些分配,我們在過去幾季中一直保持著超過 15% 的收益率,這是非常顯著的,但考慮到我們同期股價的上漲,這一結果就更加令人印象深刻了。

  • Going forward, we remain committed to generating a healthy shareholder return, and we will update the market with our third quarter 2025 results. And now we go to slide 8, we go to the outlook for '25, and before going to the usual outlook and target slide, I would like to give more details on the expected development of commercial NII going forward.

    展望未來,我們將繼續致力於為股東創造健康的回報,並將向市場更新 2025 年第三季的業績。現在我們來看投影片 8,我們來看 25 年的展望,在進入通常的展望和目標投影片之前,我想先詳細介紹一下未來商業 NII 的預期發展。

  • In the third quarter of this year, we expect commercial NII to be roughly stable, driven by the continued impact of the stronger euro and increase thereafter. And overall we forecast commercial and I in the second half of 2025 to be higher than the first half, and the increase is expected to be driven by continued volume growth as margins are expected to remain stable for the remainder of this year before gradually increasing in 2026 and 2027.

    今年第三季度,我們預計商業NII將基本保持穩定,受歐元走強的持續影響和隨後的成長推動。總體而言,我們預測 2025 年下半年的商業和 I 將高於上半年,預計成長將受到持續的銷售成長的推動,因為利潤率預計在今年剩餘時間內保持穩定,然後在 2026 年和 2027 年逐步上升。

  • Then I move to slide 9, where we show our updated outlook for 2025. I would like to reiterate that we are confident in our ability to continue progressing on our targets supported by the strong results in the first half of the year.

    然後我轉到投影片 9,我們在此展示對 2025 年的最新展望。我想重申,憑藉上半年的強勁業績,我們有信心繼續實現我們的目標。

  • We have already grown the number of mobile primary customers by almost 500,000 this year and are well on track to reach our annual growth target of a million in 2025. Fee income growth is expected to come in at a higher end of our 5% to 10% range, which helps to offset pressure from ethics on our commercial NII and as a result, we confirm our outlook for total income and expect it to be roughly stable compared to 2024.

    今年,我們的行動主要客戶數量已經增加了近 50 萬,並且預計在 2025 年實現 100 萬的年度成長目標。預計費用收入成長將達到 5% 至 10% 區間的較高水平,這有助於抵消道德對我們商業 NII 的壓力,因此,我們確認了對總收入的展望,並預計其與 2024 年相比大致保持穩定。

  • Prudent expense management remains a priority, and we are taking proactive measures to ensure we continue to operate efficiently while also selectively investing for growth, and as such, we now forecast total expenses to end up at the lower end of the range we gave earlier, including incidental items recorded in the first half of 2025.

    審慎的支出管理仍然是我們的首要任務,我們正在採取積極措施,確保我們繼續高效運營,同時有選擇地進行增長投資,因此,我們現在預測總支出最終將處於我們之前給出的範圍的低端,其中包括 2025 年上半年記錄的雜費項目。

  • The outlook for CET1 remains unchanged for the year at 12.8% to 13%. Considered our improved outlook for fees and expenses, we've also increased our outlook for ROE this year, which we now believe will be around 12.5%.

    今年 CET1 的前景保持不變,仍為 12.8% 至 13%。考慮到我們對費用和開支前景的改善,我們也提高了今年的 ROE 前景,我們現在認為它將在 12.5% 左右。

  • And now I will hand over to Tanate who will take you through the second quarter of financial results in more detail starting on slide 11. items recorded.

    現在,我將把時間交給 Tanate,從第 11 張投影片開始,他將向大家更詳細地介紹第二季的財務表現。記錄的項目。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • Thank you, Steven. I would like to start on slide 11 where we show the development of our total income which increased further compared to the previous quarter.

    謝謝你,史蒂文。我想從第 11 張投影片開始,展示我們的總收入的發展情況,與上一季相比,總收入進一步增加。

  • Commercial NII was supported by the repricing of customer deposits and continued volume growth, which almost fully compensated for the impact of the lower ECB deposit facility rate and a stronger euro which Steven alluded to earlier.

    商業NII得到了客戶存款重新定價和持續成長的支持,幾乎完全抵消了史蒂文之前提到的歐洲央行存款便利利率降低和歐元走強的影響。

  • On a sequential basis, the appreciation of the euro had a EUR37 million negative impact on the commercial NII. Fee income increased significantly and grew by 12% year-on-year. Most of this growth is structural, which is also why our expectation for the full year have increased.

    以環比計算,歐元升值對商業NII產生了3700萬歐元的負面影響。手續費收入大幅增加,較去年同期成長12%。這種增長大部分是結構性的,這也是我們對全年預期增加的原因。

  • Lastly, or other income, which is a combination of other income, investment income and other income was supported by good results in financial market treasury and higher income related to our stake in Van Lanschot Kempen Bank. Now let's discuss slide 12 where we show continued growth in customer balances.

    最後,其他收入是其他收入、投資收入和其他收入的組合,這得益於金融市場財務的良好業績以及與我們在 Van Lanschot Kempen Bank 的股份相關的更高收入。現在讓我們討論第 12 張投影片,其中展示了客戶餘額的持續成長。

  • We recorded another quarter of strong commercial momentum, particularly with our retail banking business. Net core lending rose by EUR15.4 billion driven by record growth in retail, which grew by over EUR11 billion.

    我們又一個季度取得了強勁的商業發展勢頭,尤其是零售銀行業務。淨核心貸款成長了 154 億歐元,這得益於零售業創紀錄的成長,零售業成長了 110 多億歐元。

  • We continue to do well in mortgages, through the loan book in most of our markets in the second quarter. We also saw an increase in business lending portfolio, notably in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Poland.

    在第二季度,我們在大多數市場的抵押貸款業務中繼續表現良好。我們也看到商業貸款組合增加,尤其是在比利時、荷蘭和波蘭。

  • Wholesale banking also grew net core lending driven by working capital solutions and short-term trade finance related financing. Demand for long term corporate loans have remained subdued due to the ongoing economic uncertainty.

    在營運資金解決方案和短期貿易融資相關融資的推動下,批發銀行業務的淨核心貸款也實現了成長。由於持續的經濟不確定性,長期企業貸款需求仍然低迷。

  • On liabilities we saw co deposit increase by more than EUR6 billion this quarter due to a strong performance in retail banking which benefited from the payment holidays allowances. In wholesale, growth in PCM and money market was more than offset by lower short term balances in our cash pooling business.

    在負債方面,我們看到本季共同存款增加了 60 多億歐元,這得益於零售銀行業務的強勁表現,受益於付款假期津貼。在批發業務中,PCM 和貨幣市場的成長被現金池業務中較低的短期餘額所抵消。

  • On slide 13. You can see our commercial NII was resilient, liability NII was affected by the pressure from low ECB deposit rate, and the full quarter impact of the successful promotional campaign in Germany. Launched in the first quarter.

    在第 13 張投影片上。您可以看到我們的商業 NII 具有彈性,負債 NII 受到歐洲央行低存款利率壓力的影響,以及德國成功的促銷活動對整個季度的影響。第一季推出。

  • These effects were almost fully compensated by repricing of customer deposits and strong volume growth. I'd like to know that the liability margin would have been stable without the impact of the German savings campaign.

    這些影響幾乎完全被客戶存款的重新定價和強勁的交易量成長所抵消。我想知道,如果沒有德國儲蓄運動的影響,負債邊際是否會保持穩定。

  • Lending and NII was impacted by the appreciation of the euro relative to other currencies but still grew versus the previous quarter supported by volume growth. The lending margin contributed to be affected by the makeshift towards a more profitable retail business with significant growth in mortgages which have a lower lending margin but a higher ROE.

    貸款和國家資訊基礎設施受到歐元兌其他貨幣升值的影響,但在交易量增長的支撐下,與上一季相比仍有所增長。貸款利潤率受到轉向利潤較高的零售業務的影響,抵押貸款大幅增長,而抵押貸款的貸款利潤率較低,但 ROE 較高。

  • I will give more insights on this in the next slide. The progress on our strategy to allocate more capital towards more profitable retail banking business is visible on this slide 14.

    我將在下一張幻燈片中對此進行更多見解。這張投影片 14 展示了我們向利潤較高的零售銀行業務分配更多資本的策略進展。

  • At the time of our capital markets day, the distribution of capital between the two business lines was roughly equal 50%-50%. We set the target to changes to 55% retail and 45% wholesale by the end of 2027.

    在我們資本市場日的時候,兩條業務線之間的資本分配大致是50%-50%。我們的目標是到 2027 年底將零售佔比降至 55%,批發佔比降至 45%。

  • By the end of the second quarter, the share of capital allocated to retail has already exceeded 53%, reflecting strong growth momentum in retail banking and the focus on capital optimization in the wholesale bank. The ROE of retail lending is higher than the in wholesale lending, as despite low lending margin, the relative RWA consumption and risk costs are lower.

    截至第二季末,銀行零售業務資本佔已超過53%,反映出零售業務成長動能強勁,批發銀行更重視資本優化。零售貸款的 ROE 高於批發貸款,因為儘管貸款利潤率較低,但相對 RWA 消耗和風險成本較低。

  • As such, faster growth in retail banking has a positive impact on the group return on equity, but a dampening impact on the overall lending margin. In the second quarter, the impact of this shift was roughly 2 basis points.

    因此,零售銀行業務的快速成長對集團股本回報率產生了積極影響,但對整體貸款利潤率產生了抑製作用。在第二季度,這種轉變的影響約為2個基點。

  • Turning to slide 15, fee growth year-on-year was again double digit, driven by structural revenue driver or what we call alpha. Wholesale banking fee came in at EUR360 million, a quarterly record for our franchise, driven by strong fee income in lending, daily banking, and trade finance.

    翻到第 15 張投影片,費用年增率再次達到兩位數,這受到結構性收入驅動因素或我們稱之為 alpha 的推動。批發銀行業務費用達到 3.6 億歐元,創下我們特許經營業務的季度紀錄,這得益於貸款、日常銀行業務和貿易融資的強勁費用收入。

  • Growth in retail banking was fueled by a continuing increase in mobile primary customer, which also resulted in higher daily banking fees. Investment product had also a strong quarter, reflecting growth in the number of investment accounts, increasing asset under management, and higher customer trading activity.

    零售銀行業務的成長得益於行動主要客戶的持續增加,這也導致每日銀行費用的增加。投資產品本季表現強勁,反映出投資帳戶數量的成長、管理資產的增​​加以及客戶交易活動的增加。

  • In addition, retail banking expanded its fee income from insurance products by 8%. Total fee from insurance product now amounts to almost EUR70 million this quarter.

    此外,零售銀行保險產品手續費收入成長了8%。本季保險產品的總費用已接近 7,000 萬歐元。

  • Given the strong performance across the bank, we're confident we can grow our fee income at the high end of the 5% to 10% range this year and reach our EUR5 billion target in 2027. Slide 16, we show the development of all other income.

    鑑於全行的強勁表現,我們有信心今年我們的費用收入能夠成長 5% 至 10%,並在 2027 年實現 50 億歐元的目標。投影片 16,我們展示了所有其他收入的發展。

  • Income in financial market is most literate, driven by client activity. We continue supporting our clients in turbulent times, and this is evident in the results.

    金融市場的收入最具文化性,受客戶活動驅動。我們在動盪時期繼續為客戶提供支持,這從結果中就可以看出來。

  • Treasury has again a strong quarter which income on both comparable quarter, mainly driven by results from our FX ratio hedging. And we benefited from positive revaluation of derivative for the forward purchase contract for our stake in Van Lanschot Kempen.

    財務部門再次迎來強勁季度,營收與上一季持平,主要得益於我們的外匯比率對沖的結果。我們也受惠於 Van Lanschot Kempen 股份遠期購買合約衍生性商品的積極重估。

  • Following the regulatory approval received last week, we now hold a 20.3% stake in this bank. Next, slide 17, our expenses, excluding regulatory costs and incidental items rose 4.5% year-on-year, but was stable compared to the previous quarter.

    繼上週獲得監管部門批准後,我們目前持有該銀行 20.3% 的股份。接下來是第 17 張投影片,我們的費用(不包括監管成本和雜費)年增 4.5%,但與上一季相比保持穩定。

  • The year-on-year increase was largely attributable to wage inflation, continued investment in business growth, mainly in customer acquisition, in enhancing and scaling our tech platform, and developing products for new customer segments. In Spain, for example, we have launched a dedicated digital bank account to support customers between age 14 and 17 with a tailor-made experience in the existing ING app.

    同比成長主要歸因於薪資上漲、持續投資於業務成長(主要用於客戶獲取)、增強和擴展我們的技術平台以及為新客戶群開發產品。例如,在西班牙,我們推出了專門的數位銀行帳戶,為 14 至 17 歲的客戶在現有的 ING 應用程式中提供量身定制的體驗。

  • Operating efficiencies is compensated for part of the cost increase, and we continue to digitize our services and infrastructure to further increase operating leverage. We have, for example, deployed one app in six different retail markets and have introduced generative AI powered chatbots in the Netherlands, in Germany, in Belgium, Romania, and Spain.

    營運效率的提高彌補了部分成本的增加,我們將繼續數位化我們的服務和基礎設施,以進一步提高營運槓桿。例如,我們在六個不同的零售市場部署了一個應用程序,並在荷蘭、德國、比利時、羅馬尼亞和西班牙推出了生成式人工智慧聊天機器人。

  • Incidental expenses also included EUR85 million for rebalancing of our workforce in wholesale banking, resulting in around 230 redundancies. As a result of our focus on expense management, we have improved our outlook for 2025.

    雜費還包括 8,500 萬歐元用於重新平衡批發銀行業務的員工隊伍,導致約 230 人被裁員。由於我們注重費用管理,我們改善了 2025 年的展望。

  • We now expect total expenses, including incidental item recorded in the first half of this year, to end up at the lower end of the range we gave earlier. Now on to risk cost on the next slide.

    我們現在預計,包括今年上半年記錄的雜費項目在內的總支出最終將達到我們之前給出的範圍的低端。下一張投影片將討論風險成本。

  • Total risk costs were EUR299 million this quarter or 17 basis points of average customer lending, which is below our through the cycle average and demonstrate the quality of our loan book. In addition to Stage 3 provisions amounted to EUR221 million and were mainly related to collective provisioning in various retail markets.

    本季總風險成本為 2.99 億歐元,佔平均客戶貸款的 17 個基點,低於我們的整個週期平均水平,證明了我們貸款帳簿的品質。除第 3 階段外,撥備總額達 2.21 億歐元,主要與各零售市場的集體撥備有關。

  • Individual Stage 3 cost decrease reflecting limited inflow of newly defaulted files. This is also reflected in in a further decline of our Stage 3 ratio.

    個別第 3 階段成本的下降反映了新違約文件的流入有限。這也反映在我們的第三階段比例的進一步下降。

  • Stage 1 and Stage 2 risk costs were EUR78 million, including addition to reflect update of the macroeconomic forecast. We remain confident in the quality of our loan boat.

    第 1 階段和第 2 階段的風險成本為 7,800 萬歐元,其中包括反映宏觀經濟預測更新的附加成本。我們對我們的租船品質仍然充滿信心。

  • Slide 19, shows the development of our quarter one ratio which came down compared to last quarter. The decrease in quarter one capital is fully attributable to the reduction of capital from the ongoing EUR2 billion share buyback, which is partly offset by the inclusion of EUR800 million from the quarterly net profit for this quarter.

    投影片 19 顯示了我們第一季比率的發展情況,與上一季相比有所下降。第一季資本的減少完全歸因於正在進行的20億歐元股票回購所造成的資本減少,但本季淨利潤中計入的8億歐元部分抵銷了這一減少。

  • This decrease was partly offset by low risk weighted assets. Credit risk weighted assets excluding FX impact increased by EUR5.2 billion this quarter. This is mostly driven by volume growth, partly offset by the impact of positive model updates and the change in the profile of the loan book.

    這一下降被低風險加權資產部分抵銷。本季度,不包括外匯影響的信用風險加權資產增加了 52 億歐元。這主要是由交易量增長推動的,但部分被積極的模型更新和貸款帳簿狀況的變化的影響所抵消。

  • Operational risk weighted assets remained flat while market risk weighted assets decreased by EUR2.4 billion due to hedging and FX activities. The interim dividend over the first half of 2025 is EUR0.35 per share and will be paid on August 11, continuing our established track record of providing an attractive return to our shareholders.

    操作風險加權資產保持不變,而市場風險加權資產因對沖和外匯活動減少了 24 億歐元。2025 年上半年的中期股息為每股 0.35 歐元,將於 8 月 11 日支付,延續我們為股東提供豐厚回報的良好記錄。

  • Now Steven would like to wrap up today's presentation.

    現在史蒂文想結束今天的演講。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • Indeed, thanks, Tanate. And I would like to recap a few messages before going into Q&A. At the start, I would like to say that despite the ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic [turmoil], we have been able to generate continued commercial growth in this quarter.

    確實,謝謝你,Tanate。在進入問答環節之前,我想回顧一下幾個資訊。首先,我想說,儘管地緣政治和宏觀經濟持續動盪,但我們本季仍能實現持續的商業成長。

  • Commercial NII was resilient and we expect this to grow in the second half of this year. Fees have grown by 12% compared to 2024, and we feel confident we can grow fees at the higher end of our 5% to 10% range this year.

    商業 NII 具有韌性,我們預計今年下半年將會成長。與 2024 年相比,費用成長了 12%,我們有信心今年的費用成長率能達到 5% 至 10% 的較高水準。

  • And costs remained well within our guidance. We are taking proactive measures to ensure we continue to operate efficiently and our forecast total expenses to end up at the lower end of the EUR12.5 billion to EUR12.7 billion range we indicated earlier.

    成本仍在我們的指導範圍內。我們正在採取積極措施,確保我們繼續高效運營,並預測總支出最終將處於我們先前指出的 125 億歐元至 127 億歐元範圍的低端。

  • On all this translates into an improved outlook for profitability in 2025, and we now expect to deliver a healthy return on equity of around 12.5%. And with this, I would like to open the floor for Q&A. Operator?

    所有這些都意味著 2025 年獲利前景的改善,我們現在預計股本回報率將達到 12.5% 左右。現在,我想開始問答環節。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Julia Aurora Motto, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的朱莉婭·奧羅拉·莫托 (Julia Aurora Motto)。

  • Giulia Aurora Miotto - Analyst

    Giulia Aurora Miotto - Analyst

  • Yes, hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. The first one is, perhaps we underestimated the effects the sensitivity that ING has. Would it be possible to have, a disclosure around the revenue and cost, mix so that we can estimate it.

    是的,你好,早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我有兩個。第一個是,也許我們低估了ING的敏感度的影響。是否可以揭露收入和成本的組合,以便我們進行估算。

  • Going forward, given that the euro dollar is being quite volatile, that would be my first question. And then secondly, you mentioned that corporates, that the loan demand is still muted considering that there is uncertainty. Do you see any signs that this can change in the coming quarters, especially in Germany, or not really too early to say. Thank you.

    展望未來,鑑於歐元兌美元的波動性很大,這將是我的第一個問題。其次,您提到,考慮到不確定性,企業的貸款需求仍然低迷。您是否看到任何跡象表明這種情況在未來幾季會發生變化,尤其是在德國,或者現在說還不算太早。謝謝。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • Alright, I will talk about the corporates and Tanate will talk about the FX sensitivity. Yeah, so what we have seen this quarter was a growth in the wholesale bank of EUR4 billion, but that was largely working capital solutions, and trade related financing, so short term receivable type of financing structures.

    好的,我將談論企業,而 Tanate 將談論外匯敏感性。是的,我們本季看到的是批發銀行成長了 40 億歐元,但這主要是營運資金解決方案和貿易相關融資,也就是短期應收帳款類型的融資結構。

  • On the longer term maybe be term loans, we saw more syndicated loans than we saw previous quarter. But not the big jumbo deals that we saw previously, and of course we did offset there was a limited growth in the term loans, but that was offset by capital velocity that we used, to bring that down again.

    從長期來看,可能是定期貸款,我們看到的銀團貸款比上一季更多。但不是我們之前看到的大型交易,當然我們確實抵消了定期貸款的有限增長,但這被我們使用的資本速度所抵消,從而再次降低了這個數字。

  • So there was a bit of growth in the corporate term loan but that was still muted. In that sense it's a bit too early to call whether that will change or not. So of course there is now a trade deal. Let's see if the signatures will be put on paper that should then alleviate some concern, but it's for now a bit too early to say.

    因此,企業定期貸款有所成長,但仍不景氣。從這個意義上來說,現在判斷這種情況是否會改變還為時過早。所以現在當然有貿易協定。讓我們看看這些簽名是否會被記錄在紙上,從而減輕一些擔憂,但現在說還為時過早。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • Julia, yes, we will consider a bit of our disclosure of this volatility of the US dollar will continue. But to give you a sense, already with an 8% reduction in the US dollar against the EUR in Q2 that has an impact of EUR37 million in in NII and an overall impact of maybe around EUR60 million to EUR70 million on total revenue, right?

    朱莉婭,是的,我們會考慮披露一些美元波動的情況,這種情況還會持續下去。但讓您了解一下,第二季美元兌歐元已經下降了 8%,這對 NII 產生了 3700 萬歐元的影響,對總收入的總體影響可能約為 6000 萬至 7000 萬歐元,對嗎?

  • We do benefit from less cost because of translation results. But it's not so impactful on our ROE given that risk weight is also coming down.

    我們確實因翻譯結果而受益於更低的成本。但考慮到風險權重也在下降,這對我們的 ROE 影響並不大。

  • Giulia Aurora Miotto - Analyst

    Giulia Aurora Miotto - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you. That's very helpful. Do you have the number for the cost, sir? You give the number for revenues. Do you have the number for cost?

    知道了。謝謝。這非常有幫助。先生,您有費用數字嗎?您給的是收入數字。您有費用號碼嗎?

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • No, we don't, but we'll consider it in future disclosure.

    不,我們不知道,但我們會在未來的披露中考慮這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Benoit Petrarque, Kepler Cheuvreux.

    伯努瓦·佩特拉克,開普勒·舍弗勒。

  • Benoit Petrarque - Analyst

    Benoit Petrarque - Analyst

  • Yes, good morning. So the first question is actually on commercial NII. I get the reason of the downgrade, which is really coming from the FX rates. Just wanted to talk about the underlying commercial NII trends. If you are satisfied with all the trends you see around replicating income, lending margin, whether this is all in line with plans, so FX ethics impacts.

    是的,早安。所以第一個問題其實是關於商業 NII 的。我明白降級的原因,這實際上是由於外匯匯率造成的。只是想談談潛在的商業 NII 趨勢。如果您對複製收入、貸款保證金等所有趨勢感到滿意,那麼這是否都符合計劃,外匯道德都會產生影響。

  • And the second one is on commercial and guidance. So when you look at the Q4 implicit Q4 guidance, I get to a 2.5% to 5% quarter on quarter improvement in the fourth quarter. So I'm just wondering if you could work us through the moving parts around the this improvement in the fourth quarter.

    第二個是關於商業和指導。因此,當您查看第四季度隱含的第四季度指引時,我發現第四季度的環比增長為 2.5% 至 5%。所以我只是想知道您是否可以為我們介紹第四季度這項改進的具體細節。

  • And just maybe last one to Steven, we've seen an interview in the Dutch Financial daily a few days ago. I think you referred to the lack of level playing field regarding capital requirements in Europe, and I think you mentioned that moving the head office to the German border will be very efficient from a capital standpoint.

    最後要說的是史蒂文,幾天前我們在荷蘭金融日報上看到了一次訪談。我認為您提到的是歐洲在資本要求方面缺乏公平的競爭環境,我認為您提到從資本角度來看將總部遷至德國邊境將非常有效率。

  • I think we discussed that quite some time ago, but could you maybe talk about that and are you kind of serious to consider a plan to add the to move the head office to Germany? Thank you.

    我想我們很久以前就討論過這個問題,但您能否談談這個問題,您是否認真考慮過將總部遷至德國的計劃?謝謝。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, let me talk about the Gelsenkirchen and remark I made in the newspaper and then Tanate, we'll talk about the NII and the four quarter implicit guidance in terms of what you mentioned.

    是的,讓我談談蓋爾森基興和我在報紙上發表的評論,然後是 Tanate,我們將討論您提到的 NII 和四個季度的隱性指導。

  • So I think in that article I said a few things. First of all, that in Europe we have still many trade imperfections between countries in and of itself with our own import tariffs between markets and our own non-harmonized regulation, and that goes for many sectors and we need to work on that in Europe because we need to become more competitive.

    所以我認為在那篇文章中我說了幾件事。首先,歐洲各國之間仍然存在許多貿易不完善之處,包括市場之間的進口關稅和不協調的監管,這涉及許多領域,我們需要在歐洲努力解決這個問題,因為我們需要提高競爭力。

  • Then talking about the banking sector, you see that there as well. So, and I gave an example, but there was a stylistic example of if I just moved the head office to Gelsenkirchen which is just across the border from the Netherlands.

    然後談到銀行業,你也會看到這種情況。所以,我舉了一個例子,但這是一個風格化的例子,如果我把總部搬到荷蘭邊境對面的蓋爾森基興。

  • Then with the same activities that we have, given the current regulation, I need to hold less capital and I will pay less taxes. Yeah, that is strange. And I want, also in this country, and I'm concerned about the business climate in this country.

    那麼,在進行相同活動的情況下,根據現行法規,我需要持有的資本更少,繳納的稅金也更少。是的,這很奇怪。我也希望,在這個國家,我擔心這個國家的商業環境。

  • That a country also needs to have strong banks to also make sure that businesses and households can thrive in good times and in the bad times, and you should as a country wants to have strong banks and not try to chase them away so.

    一個國家也需要擁有強大的銀行,以確保企業和家庭在順境和逆境中都能繁榮發展,作為一個國家,你應該希望擁有強大的銀行,而不是試圖將它們趕走。

  • And that sense European rules are not harmonized enough, and I find it all that banks from, for example, Germany and France, even if they serve clients here have to hold less capital and the same goes then for those banks that also have to pay less taxes because we pay taxes over our business abroad in this country and others then will not and I think we should also in this country think much more about how to make our banks competitive.

    從這個意義上講,歐洲規則不夠協調,我發現,例如德國和法國的銀行,即使它們為這裡的客戶提供服務,也必須持有較少的資本,而那些必須繳納較少稅款的銀行也是如此,因為我們在這個國家為海外業務納稅,而其他銀行則不會,我認為我們在這個國家也應該更多地思考如何讓我們的銀行具有競爭力。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • Thank you, Steven. I think if you ask about our commercial and what's positive compared to last quarter and what may be more challenging. I think what remains the same is that the path of the ECB rate cut, right, the facility rate going to 175, that remains per plan.

    謝謝你,史蒂文。我想如果你問我們的商業狀況,與上一季相比有哪些正面因素,哪些可能更具挑戰性。我認為保持不變的是歐洲央行降息的路徑,對,貸款利率將達到 175,這是按照計劃進行的。

  • And the steeper forward curve is also what we were expecting then and what we see now. So those are things which remain the same in terms of our outlook.

    而更陡峭的遠期曲線也是我們當時預期的,也是我們現在看到的。因此,從我們的觀點來看,這些事情是保持不變的。

  • What I think has changed in a positive front is the fact that the volumes have come in higher than planned both on lending and on deposits, so I think that is also quite strong and positive.

    我認為積極的變化是貸款和存款的量都高於計劃,所以我認為這也是相當強勁和積極的。

  • And then maybe on the challenging side is that the demand for long term, lending in wholesale banking has been more soft, continuing to be soft, and the outlook remains challenging. I think these are the moving parts that I like to cover.

    那麼,也許挑戰在於,批發銀行對長期貸款的需求一直比較疲軟,而且持續疲軟,前景仍然充滿挑戰。我認為這些是我喜歡報道的活動部分。

  • Benoit Petrarque - Analyst

    Benoit Petrarque - Analyst

  • Thank you, maybe on the Q4 for improvements.

    謝謝,也許在第四季會有所改進。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • I think on the Q4 improvements I think the big driver is really volumes and maybe less impact on FX in Q4. At the same time we never comment on further reactions, but you can imagine that we will manage our margin at around 100 basis points on liability and rising to 100 to 110 in 2026.

    我認為,第四季度的改善最大的驅動力實際上是銷量,而對第四季度外匯的影響可能較小。同時,我們從不對進一步的反應發表評論,但你可以想像,我們將把負債利潤率控制在 100 個基點左右,到 2026 年將上升到 100 至 110 個基點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tarik El Mejjad, Bank of America.

    梅賈德 (Tarik El Mejjad),美國銀行。

  • Tarik El Mejjad - Analyst

    Tarik El Mejjad - Analyst

  • Hi, sorry, good morning, everyone, just a couple of questions I please, focused on M&A and deposit strategy. So, can you give us a bit of an update on, what have been your main deposit, gathering campaigns, in Q2 and those that you probably launched in Q3. And then on the M&A, is my understanding is correct to see that the focus you would have.

    嗨,抱歉,大家早安,我只想問幾個問題,專注於併購和存款策略。那麼,您能否向我們介紹您在第二季的主要存款、收集活動以及您可能在第三季啟動的活動。然後關於併購,我的理解是否正確,看看你的重點是什麼。

  • You have at the moment is more into buying deposits and kind of going back to your ING direct DNA of making much more spread on deposit versus targets on fees where for the fees you're still mainly focusing on getting more primary clients and cross selling those are my two quick questions. Thank you.

    您目前更多的是購買存款,並回歸到您的 ING 直接 DNA,即在存款上賺取更多利差,而不是以費用為目標,而對於費用,您仍然主要關注獲取更多主要客戶和交叉銷售,這是我的兩個快速問題。謝謝。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • Alright, talking about the polls first, so we didn't have really big campaigns in the second quarter. We had a big campaign in Germany in the first quarter that led them to an increase in the polls with EUR23 billion in aggregates, of which about EUR16 billion came from Germany.

    好吧,首先談論民意調查,所以我們在第二季度沒有大規模的競選活動。我們在第一季在德國進行了大規模的競選活動,使他們的民調總額增加了 230 億歐元,其中約 160 億歐元來自德國。

  • Now that campaign is now ending and then that means that some of the money that we then gained will flow out in the third quarter of this year, which could have an impact on the posit growth, for the third quarter. Also because it coincides with people going on holiday, so they spent more money that they received in the second quarter, so that could have an impact.

    現在這場活動即將結束,這意味著我們當時獲得的部分資金將在今年第三季流出,這可能會對第三季的存款成長產生影響。而且由於恰逢人們度假,他們在第二季度的支出超過了收入,這可能會產生影響。

  • But there's no big campaigns going on at this at this time, and the impact, by the way, of these campaigns is what we see in Germany is similar to what we have seen in previous campaigns that about two-third of the money is sticky and one-third of the money (inaudible), so that is good.

    但此時還沒有大規模的活動正在進行,順便說一下,這些活動的影響是我們在德國看到的與我們在以前的活動中看到的情況類似,大約三分之二的資金是粘性的,三分之一的資金(聽不清楚),所以這是好的。

  • With regards to M&A, but also our activities. No, I think that what we are doing is that we're diversifying our business. So on the one hand we become more specific in the type of services that we offer to existing customers. So not one size fits all, but Gen Z and expats and mass affluent and affluent, so we become more specific in targeting those customer segments.

    關於併購,也是我們的活動。不,我認為我們正在做的是實現業務多元化。因此,一方面,我們為現有客戶提供的服務類型更加具體。因此,我們並沒有採用適合所有人的方案,而是針對 Z 世代、外籍人士、大眾富裕階層和富裕階層,因此我們在針對這些客戶群時會更加具體。

  • And that then helps also to get more mobile primary customers in. And the second thing and who do more business with RG diversified business. And secondly, we try to fill in the blanks in markets where we are already active, but where in some markets only active in wholesale banking, so the top end and private individuals, the low end, if you will, and then we need to want to fill it up with SME, self-employed, mid corporates, private banking, wealth management, so we try to broaden the business.

    這也有助於吸引更多的行動主要客戶。第二件事是誰與 RG 多元化業務做更多的生意。其次,我們嘗試填補我們已經活躍的市場的空白,但在某些市場中,我們僅活躍於批發銀行業務,因此如果您願意的話,高端和私人,低端,然後我們需要用中小企業,個體戶,中型企業,私人銀行,財富管理來填補,因此我們嘗試拓寬業務。

  • And that's what you also see reflected in our figures that we're actually growing. Yes, of course we grow in lending and deposits, and I'm happy with that because we're a good bank and people like to do business with us, but I'm particularly proud of the fact that we continue to grow our fee income because that is diversifying our income streams and that's what we want.

    從我們的數據中您也可以看出,我們確實在成長。是的,我們的貸款和存款業務當然在增長,我對此感到高興,因為我們是一家好銀行,人們喜歡與我們做生意,但我特別自豪的是我們的手續費收入不斷增長,因為這使我們的收入來源多樣化,而這正是我們想要的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的克里斯·哈勒姆。

  • Chris Hallam - Analyst

    Chris Hallam - Analyst

  • Hi, morning, everyone, just a few clarifications, I guess. So first of all, what's embedded in the commercial NII guide with regards to savings rates cuts in H2, and is the planning there on the rates mainly in response to your own planning or I guess relative to competition.

    大家好,早安,我只是想澄清一些事情。那麼首先,商業 NII 指南中關於下半年儲蓄利率削減的內容是什麼?其中的利率規劃主要是為了回應您自己的規劃,還是我想是相對於競爭而言的。

  • Are you driving to a predetermined liability margin outcome or are you just paying what needs to be paid relative to this? And then second on market share, what are you seeing on mortgage market share particularly given the extra capital you're putting to work there, and do those share trends differ much across your main markets? Thank you.

    您是否正在努力實現預定的責任保證金結果,還是只支付與此相關的需要支付的費用?其次,關於市場份額,考慮到您們投入的額外資本,您對抵押貸款市場份額有何看法?這些份額趨勢在你們的主要市場之間是否有很大差異?謝謝。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • I think on the market share in mortgages, clearly by the way we price the mortgage to the return, so we don't grow for the sake of growing, we grow when we also can make the right return on that, but we have over the past year improved our processes and made them more easy and digital, whereas direct selling or through the brokers, and that has meant that in some markets, most notably the Netherlands, we have been increasing the market share of the new production.

    我認為,就抵押貸款的市場份額而言,顯然我們是根據回報來定價抵押貸款的,因此我們不是為了增長而增長,而是當我們能夠獲得正確的回報時我們才會增長,但在過去的一年裡,我們改進了流程,使其更加簡單和數字化,而直接銷售或通過經紀人銷售,這意味著在某些市場,尤其是荷蘭,我們一直在增加新產品的市場份額。

  • Which now hovers around 17% so it's now stabilizing, so but that's where we currently are and we're happy with the growth that we show there.

    現在徘徊在 17% 左右,所以現在正在穩定下來,但這就是我們目前的狀況,我們對所呈現的成長感到滿意。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • And Chris, obviously we can't give any guidance around any further deposit rate action in the future, but I think as you see we manage commercial NII on margin, and we have been able to manage the liability NI at around 100 basis points this year, and that continued to be our guidance. And you can see that despite the rate action we've taken earlier this year, liquidity remains strong and deposit growth remains strong.

    克里斯,顯然我們無法對未來進一步的存款利率行動給出任何指導,但我認為,正如你所見,我們管理保證金商業 NII,今年我們已經能夠將負債 NI 管理在 100 個基點左右,這仍然是我們的指導。您可以看到,儘管我們今年早些時候採取了利率行動,但流動性仍然強勁,存款成長仍然強勁。

  • Chris Hallam - Analyst

    Chris Hallam - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you very much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hari Sivakumaran, KBW.

    Hari Sivakumaran,KBW。

  • Hari Sivakumaran - Analyst

    Hari Sivakumaran - Analyst

  • Hi there, I just want to ask on the, fee guidance, I appreciate you improved it to the upper end of the 5% to 10%, but you're currently running at kind of 11%, year or half one versus, half one last year, and that's EUR2.2 billion. Is there anything that's kind of holding you back from, going above 10% (inaudible) growth this year?

    您好,我只是想問一下費用指導,我很感激您將其提高到 5% 到 10% 的上限,但您目前的年費或半年費約為 11%,而去年同期為 22 億歐元。有什麼因素阻礙今年達到超過 10%(聽不清楚)的成長率嗎?

  • And then my second question is on the wholesale business, and appreciate the slide on the change in the mix of capital consumption. But the ROE has sort of been stuck at around 10.5% for the last two quarters. I'm just wondering if there's anything more that can be done to improve that. Thanks.

    我的第二個問題是關於批發業務的,請欣賞幻燈片中關於資本消耗結構變化的內容。但過去兩個季度,ROE 一直徘徊在 10.5% 左右。我只是想知道是否還有什麼可以做的來改善這種情況。謝謝。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you very much. So, let me first start with the ROE also bank. So we have given guidance on 2025 for an ROE combined of 12.5% or around '27 or 14%, and we're confident on both [cars], and we also want to make improvements in both businesses.

    非常感謝。那麼,讓我先從 ROE 和銀行開始。因此,我們對 2025 年的 ROE 預期為 12.5% 左右,即 27 年或 14% 左右,我們對這兩款車都充滿信心,我們也希望這兩款業務都能有所改善。

  • For both it means we need to diversify more. I just talked about retail, but the same goes for wholesale, so we have been investing consistently in transaction services and financial markets to cross sell and next to the big lending engine that we have in wholesale banking to get to higher returns. That's one element.

    對於兩者而言,這意味著我們需要更加多樣化。我剛才談到了零售,但批發也是如此,因此我們一直在交易服務和金融市場進行持續投資,以進行交叉銷售,並利用批發銀行業務中的大型貸款引擎來獲得更高的回報。這是一個要素。

  • The second element to improve our return there is to improve capital velocity. Which means we want to do more with the same capital or the same with less capital. That's also why you see a shift in capital from wholesale to retail, but we are still embarking on our first SRT which will come in the second half of this year, and it will also help the return of wholesale banking.

    提高回報的第二個要素是提高資本流通速度。這意味著我們希望用同樣的資本做更多的事情,或用更少的資本做同樣的事情。這也是為什麼你會看到資本從批發轉向零售,但我們仍在著手進行我們的第一個 SRT,它將在今年下半年推出,這也將有助於批發銀行業務的回歸。

  • And as only the first and then in '26, we will continue with SRT and the years are after as well. When we talk about fee guidance, yes indeed, we have very good growth with 12%. We have been able to show average growth of 5% to 10% over the last five years. We continue to give the guidance over the period of '24 to '27.

    並且,正如第一款以及 26 款一樣,我們將繼續使用 SRT,並且以後也是如此。當我們談論費用指導時,確實如此,我們的成長率非常好,達到了 12%。過去五年我們實現了平均 5% 到 10% 的成長率。我們將繼續為 2024 年至 2027 年期間提供指導。

  • So, yeah, we're happy with what we're doing. We, of course, want to sustain these levels. But we stay now for now to regardless of 5% to 10%, albeit at the higher end of the 5% to 10%, so we become more specific.

    是的,我們對所做的事情很滿意。我們當然希望維持這些水準。但我們現在暫時不考慮 5% 到 10% 這個數字,儘管這個數字處於 5% 到 10% 的高端,但我們還是會變得更具體。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Namita Samtani, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的 Namita Samtani。

  • Namita Samtani - Analyst

    Namita Samtani - Analyst

  • Morning and thanks for taking my questions. Just my first one, just wondering on the liability margin when you guide to 100bps to 110bps in 2027 when the replicating portfolio becomes the severe tailwind, to me 110bps would be the flaw. Would you agree with that or what stops the group from printing above 110bps liability margin in 2027?

    早上好,感謝您回答我的問題。這只是我的第一個問題,我只是想知道,當您在 2027 年將負債保證金引導至 100bps 至 110bps 時,當複製投資組合成為強勁的順風時,對我來說 110bps 將是一個缺陷。您是否同意這一點,或者是什麼阻止了該集團在 2027 年印刷超過 110 個基點的負債保證金?

  • And secondly, I just wanted to ask Steven, I just wondered related to Tanate's intentions to step down as CFO in the press release, you write, after seven years as CFO on the board, it's a logical moment for Tanate to step down.

    其次,我想問史蒂文,我只是想知道有關塔納特在新聞稿中辭去首席財務官一職的意圖,你寫道,在擔任董事會首席財務官七年後,塔納特卸任是合乎邏輯的時機。

  • I just wondered why it's a logical time ING has targets up to 2027, which we're yet to see if they can achieve. And I also wondered if this if you're looking at internal or external candidates for the CFO. Thanks very much.

    我只是想知道為什麼 ING 設定 2027 年的目標在邏輯上是合理的,但我們尚未看到他們是否能夠實現。我還想知道,如果您正在尋找內部或外部的財務長候選人,情況會如何?非常感謝。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • All right, thank you very much and by the way, I heard it's your birthday today. Is that correct?

    好的,非常感謝,順便說一句,我聽說今天是你的生日。對嗎?

  • Namita Samtani - Analyst

    Namita Samtani - Analyst

  • It's my sweet 16.

    這是我甜蜜的16歲。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • Very good. Congratulations on the case. Yeah, look, the seven years logical time to step down. I think what I meant with that, look this has been a very good period and I know each other for a long time. We have been working together since, I believe the year 2000 when we were both stationed in Asia, and I'm very grateful that he has been with me for seven years at the boards, and now, is retiring from ING.

    非常好。恭喜案件圓滿結束。是的,你看,七年是合理的卸任時間。我認為我的意思是,這是一個非常好的時期,而且我們彼此認識很久了。我記得我們從 2000 年起就一直一起工作,當時我們都駐紮在亞洲,我很感激他和我一起在董事會工作了七年,現在他即將從 ING 退休。

  • And this was my expression to be grateful. There was not anything particular to be meant by seven years or what it should be exactly, but this is a very good time at our board, which I'm very grateful for.

    這就是我表達感激之情的方式。七年並沒有什麼特別的含義,也沒有什麼確切的含義,但這是我們董事會非常愉快的時光,我對此非常感激。

  • Nothing more, nothing less, and in terms of candidates, yeah, we never disclose who we are, who we are exactly looking for, but of course you can be assured that this is a rigorous process and we have ample time to announce a successor before the AGM of 2026. Tanate on liability margin.

    不多不少,就候選人而言,是的,我們從不透露我們是誰,我們到底在尋找誰,但當然你可以放心,這是一個嚴格的過程,我們有充足的時間在 2026 年年度股東大會之前宣布繼任者。Tanate 負責保證金。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • Yes, more to mundane topics liability margin for next year. I think, look, it's always a balance when you look at liability margin around competition in the market, our ambition to grow our volumes and managing margin, right? And if we look historically what we see is that the margin has been around that 100bps, 110bps over the long cycle, so that's something that we plan on.

    是的,明年的責任保證金將更成為一個平凡的話題。我認為,當你考慮市場競爭中的負債保證金、我們增加銷售量和管理保證金的雄心時,它總是一種平衡,對嗎?如果我們回顧歷史,我們會發現利潤率在長期內一直在 100bps、110bps 左右,所以這是我們計劃的。

  • Maybe something that I think gives me comfort around that 100bps and 110bps is that the mix of our deposits have stabilized, right? The current account has now normalized to before the zero rate level, the level of term deposits are coming down, the level of savings is going up, so that also bodes well for improving the net interest margin on liability. So to summarize, it's a balance between volume and margin.

    也許我認為 100bps 和 110bps 讓我感到安心的一點是我們的存款組合已經穩定下來了,對嗎?目前經常帳戶已恢復到零利率水準之前的狀態,定期存款水準正在下降,儲蓄水準正在上升,這也預示著負債淨利差的改善。總而言之,這是數量和利潤之間的平衡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Farquhar Murray, Autonomous.

    法誇爾·默里,自治。

  • Farquhar Murray - Analyst

    Farquhar Murray - Analyst

  • Morning all. Just one question from me and really just a follow up to a degree on Harry's question earlier on fees. I mean, the upper end of 5% to 10% before year '25 seems a bit more confident than earlier in the year.

    大家早安。我只想問一個問題,實際上只是對 Harry 之前關於費用的問題的後續問題。我的意思是,25 年之前 5% 到 10% 的上限似乎比今年早些時候更有信心。

  • I just wondered if that is indeed slightly more confident and also what kind of products or geographies are behind that. And then more generally, what kind of proof points can you give for your kind of view that that's alpha driven rather than beta. Thanks.

    我只是想知道這是否確實更有信心,以及背後有什麼樣的產品或地理位置。然後更一般地說,您可以提供什麼樣的證據來證明您的觀點,即這是由 alpha 驅動而不是 beta 驅動的。謝謝。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • All right, thanks Far. Well, indeed that shows more confidence than given just the range, and why is there more confidence that we see good, mobile primary customer growth, we see the number of and as a result of it, you also then do more payments.

    好的,謝謝 Far。嗯,這確實比僅僅給出範圍顯示出更多的信心,為什麼我們看到良好的移動主要客戶增長,我們看到數量,並且因此,您還可以進行更多的支付,這讓我們更有信心。

  • We see a higher percentage of our customers becoming primary customers. We see a growth in our number of trading accounts that was last year EUR4.6 million is now EUR4.9 million, so the number of people that trade with us is increasing.

    我們發現越來越多的客戶成為主要客戶。我們發現交易帳戶數量有所增長,去年為 460 萬歐元,現在為 490 萬歐元,因此與我們進行交易的人數也在增加。

  • We have put in place over the past couple of years insurance products in private individuals and in business banking, and now you see her and I would say insurance is, I would say sort of a snowball. It rolls down the hill and step by, step by, step by, step it becomes a bit bigger.

    過去幾年來,我們為私人和商業銀行推出了保險產品,現在你看到了她,我想說保險就像滾雪球一樣。它從山上滾下來,一步一步,一步一步,變得越來越大。

  • And we saw also the number of the lending deals in wholesale banking increased the syndicated loans so that all helps. But there you see that by broadening our customer base, by broadening the type of service that we provide, we are making this step by step bigger and you see, and therefore we are seeing with these actions that the number of people that do fee business with us is just larger and it helps us in our confidence.

    我們也看到批發銀行的貸款交易數量增加了銀團貸款,這一切都有幫助。但你可以看到,透過擴大我們的客戶群,透過擴大我們提供的服務類型,我們正在一步步地擴大規模,因此,透過這些行動,我們看到與我們做收費業務的人數越來越多,這有助於增強我們的信心。

  • Farquhar Murray - Analyst

    Farquhar Murray - Analyst

  • The follow on, would you have a magnitude on the insurance revenues now?

    接下來,您能知道現在保險收入的金額嗎?

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, it's it is for the first time that we put it in the presentation. It's now EUR69 million this quarter. So we split that out now.

    是的,這是我們第一次將其放入簡報中。本季目前為 6900 萬歐元。所以我們現在把它分開。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的班傑明‧戈伊 (Benjamin Goy)。

  • Benjamin Goy - Analyst

    Benjamin Goy - Analyst

  • Yes, good morning. Two questions, one follow up and one more general question. The first on the implied increase in the Q4 NII. I was just wondering, and to need to mention volume growth is part of the assumption there. Is there any specific that you can share?

    是的,早安。兩個問題,一個是後續問題,一個是一般性問題。第一個是關於第四季國家資訊基礎設施隱含成長。我只是想知道,需要提及的是,銷售成長是那裡的假設的一部分。有什麼具體內容可以分享嗎?

  • Is there an uptake expected in long term corporate lending that you would need to see to get this, increase or, yeah, volumes across the board and deposits. And then secondly, your digital business banking, part of the growth area in the retail business.

    您是否希望看到長期企業貸款的成長,以實現這一目標,或者,是的,全面增加貸款量和存款。其次,您的數位商業銀行業務是零售業務成長領域的一部分。

  • And in Germany, you ended the Amazon partnership. I mean, I know it's only one partnership and probably don't want to overinterpret it, but never looked promising and it seemed to be below expectations. I was just wondering how successful is the digital business banking in your market without branch-based networks and how much can you be driven by that. Thank you.

    在德國,你們終止了與亞馬遜的合作關係。我的意思是,我知道這只是一次合作,可能不想過度解讀它,但它看起來並不樂觀,而且似乎低於預期。我只是想知道,在沒有分行網路的情況下,您所在市場的數位商業銀行業務有多成功,以及您能從中獲益多少。謝謝。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • Alright, I'll answer on the busy banking and Tanate on NII. If you look in general in business banking, a business banking consists of three parts self-employed, SME and mid corporates. And self-employed is being done fully digitally like private individuals.

    好的,我將回答有關繁忙的銀行業務和 NII 上的 Tanate 的問題。如果你整體來看商業銀行業務,你會發現商業銀行業務由三個部分組成:自僱人士、中小企業和中型企業。而個體經營也像私人經營一樣完全以數位化方式進行。

  • SME is being done mostly digital first, supported by sales teams who are remote and mid corporates or what you perhaps in Germany would call [Mitter] stands or maybe even lower [Mitterans]. You would do with a relationship model and with sector knowledge supported by digital, so a large part of activities in business banking are digital.

    中小企業主要採用數位化方式,由遠距銷售團隊和中型企業提供支持,或在德國稱之為「Mitter」的立場,甚至更低[米特朗]。您可以使用關係模型和數位支援的行業知識,因此商業銀行業務的很大一部分活動都是數位化的。

  • And in Germany in particular, we start from the low end because we are already with private individuals and then the move towards self-employed and SME is not so difficult to make because we already have the more digital services. Now in the past we only did that through indirectly through a partnership with Amazon, but now we approach these customers directly.

    特別是在德國,我們從低端開始,因為我們已經與私人合作,然後向個體經營者和中小企業轉變並不那麼困難,因為我們已經擁有更多的數位化服務。過去我們只是透過與亞馬遜合作間接地做到這一點,但現在我們直接與這些客戶接觸。

  • Compared to the significant mortgage and customer lending book and wholesale banking book that we have in Germany, business banking in Germany is relatively small, but it's almost like with the insurance. Like I just said, it starts small and then we do it step by step by step, we grow it to diversify our business.

    與德國大量的抵押貸款、客戶貸款和批發銀行業務相比,德國的商業銀行業務規模相對較小,但幾乎與保險相似。就像我剛才說的,我們從小事做起,然後一步一步地發展,實現業務多元化。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • Benjamin, just on the commercial NII development in the fourth quarter, I think we look at a number of factors in giving our scenario. I think we look at volume, right? We have a longer term planning estimate of 4%, but we're ending up at least the first half year higher at around 7%, so that's something that factor in our thinking.

    本傑明,就第四季度的商業 NII 發展而言,我認為我們在製定預測時會考慮許多因素。我想我們應該看一下音量,對嗎?我們的長期規劃估計成長率為 4%,但至少上半年的成長率會更高,達到 7% 左右,所以這是我們考慮的因素。

  • We're still planning on another ECB facility rate cut in September of 25 basis points. And we will take the necessary rate action to maintain a margin of 1%. So those are the consideration that goes into our guidance about commercial NII.

    我們仍計劃在 9 月再次將歐洲央行利率下調 25 個基點。我們將採取必要的利率行動,以維持 1% 的利潤率。這些就是我們在製定商業 NII 指導意見時所考慮的因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Johan Ekblom, UBS.

    瑞銀的 Johan Ekblom。

  • Johan Ekblom - Analyst

    Johan Ekblom - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. Just maybe if we can come back to NII and look a bit further ahead into next year. I mean, you flagging the presentation a further, headwind from the replicating book, but then I guess there are some tailwinds on the depository pricing if I add those up, that's about a EUR400 million tailwind into next year and then you plan on, 4% volume growth.

    非常感謝。也許我們可以回到 NII 並展望明年。我的意思是,您在演示中進一步指出了複製書帶來的不利因素,但我想如果我把這些因素加起來,存管定價就會有一些順風,那就是明年大約 4 億歐元的順風,然後您計劃實現 4% 的交易量增長。

  • Are there any other significant drivers than those that we should think about in terms of NII '26 versus 2025. Because I guess that pick up your flagging for Q4, it should really continue throughout all of next year if I'm not mistaken.

    除了這些我們應該考慮的 NII '26 與 2025 之間的差異之外,還有其他重要的驅動因素嗎?因為我猜這會導致第四季的標誌物上升,如果我沒有記錯的話,這種趨勢應該會持續到明年全年。

  • And then maybe digging a bit deeper on the volume side. I mean we've seen a couple of quarters of very strong volume growth, and I think you flagged in the past that the strong mortgage growth at a system level in the Netherlands is probably not long term sustainable at these levels, but maybe if you could give us an update on what you're seeing there.

    然後也許在音量方面進行更深入的挖掘。我的意思是,我們已經看到了幾個季度非常強勁的交易量增長,而且我認為您過去曾指出,荷蘭系統層面的強勁抵押貸款增長可能無法長期持續下去,但也許您可以向我們介紹一下您所看到的情況。

  • And I also noted that there was quite a strong pick up in the Belgian loan book, in particular in the non-mortgage side. Is there anything, structurally going on there? I mean, you've been losing share in Belgium for a number of years. Is there any, chance of a decent turnaround there?

    我還注意到,比利時的貸款業務,特別是非抵押貸款業務,出現了相當強勁的成長。從結構上來說,那裡發生了什麼事情嗎?我的意思是,你們在比利時的市佔率已經連續多年下降。那裡有出現明顯好轉的機會嗎?

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • Right, I'll take the view on the mortgages. If we look at mortgages in the different markets, we see actually sales volumes that are growing in all these markets, and the reason being that is that there are still a shortages on houses. So that's what we are seeing.

    好的,我會考慮抵押貸款的觀點。如果我們觀察不同市場的抵押貸款,我們實際上會發現所有這些市場的銷售量都在成長,原因是房屋仍然短缺。這就是我們所看到的。

  • Of course there was a dip in new mortgages in a number of the countries, with the uncertainties coming in, as a result of the war and the supply chain. Challenges that we've seen in 2022 and '23, but that is largely gone. It's gone in the Netherlands and it's gone in Belgium.

    當然,由於戰爭和供應鏈帶來的不確定性,許多國家的新抵押貸款數量有所下降。我們在 2022 年和 2023 年看到的挑戰,但基本上已經消失了。它在荷蘭消失了,在比利時也消失了。

  • So, if you look at the [Dutch] housing markets, there's a 17% year-on-year increase expected in terms of number of houses sold in this country. If you look at the Belgium housing markets, we also see an increase of about 15% when we talk about building permits in some of the months, and 18% mortgage production year-on-year up in total compared to the previous year.

    因此,如果你看看[荷蘭]房地產市場,你會發現該國的房屋銷售數量預計將年增 17%。如果你看比利時的房地產市場,我們也會發現在某些月份建築許可數量增加了約 15%,而抵押貸款總額比去年同期增加了 18%。

  • So we're also benefiting from that. Same in Germany whereby we saw mortgage lending coming down, new mortgage lending quite steeply to about 60% of what was normal over the years '22 and '23 and '24 greatly recovering.

    所以我們也從中受益。德國的情況也是一樣,我們看到房貸下降,新增房貸大幅下降至 2022 年、2023 年和 2024 年正常水準的 60% 左右,大幅回升。

  • But not really recovering well, so with the 35% increase in terms of houses also, in that sense we're benefiting from that again, we have been working on improving our processes over the past years and therefore that helps us in our mortgage share on the production but in the end we will only print if we also can make adequate returns so that is on mortgages.

    但實際上復甦並不好,所以隨著房屋數量也增加了 35%,從這個意義上說,我們再次從中受益,過去幾年我們一直在努力改進我們的流程,因此這有助於我們在生產中分得抵押貸款的份額,但最終我們只有在能夠獲得足夠回報的情況下才會印鈔,這就是抵押貸款。

  • Oh sorry, and regarding in Belgium in business banking there we saw higher balances, but that has to do with the very large clients, which can be volatile quarter-on-quarter.

    哦,抱歉,關於比利時的商業銀行業務,我們看到了更高的餘額,但這與非常大的客戶有關,這些客戶可能會出現季度環比波動。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • So in terms of looking to 2026, I think on the lending side we plan on a recovery in terms of lending margin from 125 for 2025 to between 125 to 130 in the coming period. I think that kind of better outlook is driven by the fact that we have seen higher business banking loan growth right that is coming in with better margin, high consumer lending growth again with better margin.

    因此,展望 2026 年,我認為在貸款方面,我們計劃將貸款保證金從 2025 年的 125 恢復到未來一段時間的 125 至 130 之間。我認為,這種更好的前景是由於我們已經看到更高的商業銀行貸款成長率和更好的利潤率,以及更高的消費貸款成長率和更好的利潤率。

  • And more return to normalization in terms of corporate lending which has higher margins, so these are driving our expectations for higher lending margin. And then if you talk about the liability side, I think we give now a bit more details about the impact on replication on page 26 of our presentation where you do see that based on the curve prevailing in June that there's a EUR300 million reduction in terms of replicated income.

    企業貸款進一步回歸正常化,利潤率也更高,因此這些都推動了我們對更高貸款利潤率的預期。然後,如果您談論負債方面,我想我們現在會在演示文稿的第 26 頁上提供更多關於複製影響的詳細信息,您會看到,根據 6 月份的曲線,複製收入減少了 3 億歐元。

  • But we have also given a better look into 2026 that without any further rate action on savings we expect that the EUR1 billion additional income from savings repricing would go to EUR1.3 billion, and term deposits would go from EUR400 to EUR800 million so that helps compensate from that additional headwind from replication.

    但我們也對 2026 年進行了更深入的展望,如果不對儲蓄採取進一步的利率行動,我們預計儲蓄重新定價帶來的 10 億歐元額外收入將增至 13 億歐元,定期存款將從 4 億歐元增至 8 億歐元,從而有助於彌補複製帶來的額外阻力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Clark, Medio Banker.

    馬修·克拉克(Matthew Clark),中等銀行家。

  • Matthew Clark - Analyst

    Matthew Clark - Analyst

  • Good morning. So a few questions again on I'm afraid. Firstly, in terms of the German deposit campaign, the first quarter, should we still be expecting an outflow, from that to come through in the third quarter? I think the, special interest rate period ended during the second quarter, but near the end. So just wondering what we've seen any of that outflow effect. Yes, so whether that's still to come.

    早安.恐怕我還會再問幾個問題。首先,就第一季的德國存款活動而言,我們是否仍應預期資金流出,並會在第三季出現?我認為,特殊利率期在第二季結束,但接近尾聲。所以只是想知道我們看到了什麼樣的流出效應。是的,那麼這是否還會發生。

  • Second question is on commercial NII in the third quarter which you're guiding flat. I'm just trying to understand why it can't be more positive. You've got a very positive, kind of volume tail and even despite the FXs and actually the FX is rebounded quarter to date and then, flat margin guidance effectively for both the lending margin and perhaps even implicit a bit of an improvement in the liability margin guidance in order to meet that full year 100 basis point guide. So why can't we see commercial NII up already in the third quarter is the question. Thanks.

    第二個問題是關於第三季商業 NII 的,您預測它會持平。我只是想知道為什麼它不能更積極一些。儘管存在外匯,但您還是獲得了非常積極的交易量尾部,實際上外匯在本季度已經反彈,然後,對於貸款保證金而言,保證金指導實際上持平,甚至可能隱含著負債保證金指導的一點改善,以滿足全年 100 個基點的指導。那麼問題來了,為什麼我們在第三季還沒有看到商業 NII 上升?謝謝。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, thanks Matt. On the post campaign, yes, with that campaign indeed you have seen it, rightly that we started in the first quarter and ended early June. So there was some outflow, but we'll continue to see some outflow in the third quarter, at least we expect that based on also what we have seen in previous campaigns where typically two-third of the money stays and one-third of the money goes.

    是的,謝謝馬特。關於後期競選,是的,您確實已經看到了那場競選,我們在第一季開始並在六月初結束,這是正確的。因此存在一些資金流出,但我們將在第三季度繼續看到一些資金流出,至少我們預計,這也是基於我們在之前的競選活動中看到的情況,通常三分之二的資金會留下,三分之一的資金會流出。

  • So that's why we also said that that may also have an impact in the posit growth in the third quarter, because also in the third quarter people are typically going on summer holiday, and that means that they spent a bit more money than they do in other quarters. So that could be a seasonal effect that we can see in could see in the third quarter. Tanate NII.

    所以我們也說這可能也會對第三季的正成長產生影響,因為在第三季人們通常會去度暑假,這意味著他們比其他季度花的錢要多一些。所以這可能是我們在第三季看到的季節性影響。塔納特 NII。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • Yeah, NII guidance, I think what you see is not the full impact of foreign exchange impact in Q2. We expect the full impact in Q3. That's why we think that the impact on FX would be more significant in Q3. Hence our guidance on flat commercial NII.

    是的,NII 指導,我認為您看到的並不是第二季外匯影響的全部影響。我們預計全面影響將在第三季顯現。這就是為什麼我們認為第三季對外匯的影響會更大。因此,我們的商業 NII 指導價為持平。

  • Matthew Clark - Analyst

    Matthew Clark - Analyst

  • Can I just follow up your guidance on FX. What FX, date is that based on? Is that based on the end of June or is that based on July 30, FX rate.

    我可以遵循您對外匯的指導嗎?這是基於什麼 FX、日期?這是基於 6 月底還是基於 7 月 30 日的外匯匯率?

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • Right, that's based on the end of June FX rate.

    是的,這是基於六月底的外匯匯率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anke Reingen, RBC.

    安克·雷因根(Anke Reingen),RBC。

  • Anke Reingen - Analyst

    Anke Reingen - Analyst

  • Oh yeah, thank you so much for taking my question. Just very simply first on the liability margin, is it as simple as given the German campaign has finished that the liability margin should everything else being equal go back to the 100 basis points and Q3 I mean obviously everything else being equal.

    哦是的,非常感謝您回答我的問題。首先,關於負債保證金,如果德國戰役已經結束,那麼在其他條件相同的情況下,負債保證金是否應該回到 100 個基點,而 Q3 的意思是,顯然在其他條件相同的情況下。

  • And then, on your upgrade to the 2025 ROE, I mean, do you think it's, I mean, 2027 is also obviously also some time out, but do you think that we have the better 2025 trends, are leading to structurally, better outcome in 2027 as well, or is it more of a timing effect some of the measures coming through quicker. Thank you very much.

    然後,關於您對 2025 年 ROE 的升級,我的意思是,您是否認為,我的意思是,2027 年顯然也需要一些時間,但您是否認為我們有更好的 2025 年趨勢,從而在 2027 年也帶來結構性、更好的結果,或者這更多的是時間效應,一些措施會更快地實現。非常感謝。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay, look, that we don't give, current new guidance on 2027, but we are comfortable about '25, but we're also very comfortable on 2027. Tanate on liability margin, how is it developing.

    好的,看,我們沒有給予 2027 年的最新指導,但我們對 25 年感到滿意,但我們對 2027 年也非常滿意。Tanate 負責負債保證金,目前進展如何。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • On like for like basis, with the German campaign ending our liability margin would be at around 100 basis points. In fact, a little bit better than 100 basis points.

    以同類基礎計算,隨著德國戰役的結束,我們的負債利潤率將在 100 個基點左右。事實上,比 100 個基點好一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Juan Pablo Cabrera, Santander.

    胡安·巴勃羅·卡布雷拉,桑坦德銀行。

  • Juan Pablo Cabrera - Analyst

    Juan Pablo Cabrera - Analyst

  • Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. First one is regarding expenses. I think if you could, give us a bit more detail. You are mentioning that you are doing some initiatives on KYC and contact centers. It could be useful, if you could, give some color on how much, are you spending on this and if there is, any additional room, to cut cost.

    是的,早安。感謝您回答我的問題。第一個是關於費用。我想如果您可以的話,請給我們更多細節。您提到您正在針對 KYC 和聯絡中心採取一些措施。如果您能說明您在這方面花了多少錢,以及是否還有任何額外的成本削減空間,這可能會很有用。

  • There may be related to stealing expenses regarding incidental items. And maybe just to have some, feeling about future initiatives, what could be the payback, for instance of the EUR85 million wholesale banking business initiative. So what's the savings that we could expect in the future?

    可能有與竊盜雜費有關的費用。或許只是為了對未來的舉措有一些感受,可能會有什麼樣的回報,例如 8,500 萬歐元的批發銀行業務舉措。那麼,未來我們可以省多少呢?

  • And then my second question is regarding your ROE guidance. I don't know if you could give us a bit more detail, that upgrades, where does it come, because also it's true that equity is coming down, probably because of the effects impact. So, that, upgrades on our way what part is coming from actually, better net income, and what part is coming from, lower equity. Thank you.

    我的第二個問題是關於您的 ROE 指導。我不知道您是否可以提供更多細節,升級來自哪裡,因為股權確實在下降,可能是由於影響的影響。因此,我們的升級方式實際上一部分來自於更好的淨收入,另一部分來自於更低的股權。謝謝。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • All right, I'll talk about expenses and the initiative that we've taken on wholesale banking, and Tanate talks about the ROE. So, talking about expenses look, I mean, we I have experienced so far still higher inflation levels that came in our coastline from previous years, we of course are investing for growth so that is in marketing and new products, and that we're partly offsetting by digitalizing our operations further.

    好的,我將談論費用以及我們在批發銀行業務方面採取的舉措,而 Tanate 將談論 ROE。所以,談到費用,我的意思是,到目前為止,我們經歷的通貨膨脹水平仍然比前幾年更高,我們當然正在投資增長,即在營銷和新產品方面,而我們通過進一步數字化運營來部分抵消這些影響。

  • And there we do and we're looking currently in various initiatives, and these initiatives have to do with KYC. How can we utilize that? How can we further utilize our contact center operations with AI but also with the GenAI chat balls, we look at GenAI in lending.

    我們確實這樣做了,目前正在尋找各種舉措,這些舉措與 KYC 有關。我們該如何利用它呢?我們如何進一步利用人工智慧和 GenAI 聊天球來發展我們的聯絡中心運營,我們研究 GenAI 在貸款領域的應用。

  • We look also at, GenAI encoding. So those are all initiatives that are currently being developed, centrally steered, step by step we will integrate them in our operations and as soon as their outcome from that, we will let you know.

    我們也研究了 GenAI 編碼。因此,這些都是目前正在開發、集中指導的舉措,我們將逐步將它們整合到我們的營運中,一旦有了結果,我們就會告知您。

  • With regards to the, initiative that we've taken in wholesale banking where we did the restructuring in the front office side of wholesale banking at the 230 FCE and that therefore that we took in in a provision of EUR85 million, annualized the benefit of that will be EUR40 million, but that will only start to come in in the course of 2026.

    關於我們在批發銀行業務中採取的舉措,我們對 230 FCE 的批發銀行前台進行了重組,因此我們獲得了 8500 萬歐元的撥備,年化收益將為 4000 萬歐元,但這筆收益要到 2026 年才會開始到賬。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • Then just in terms of the composition for our updated outlook on return on equity, it's a combination of factors I think we are more fee intense in terms of our revenue which is more ROE accretive, right? This is part of our strategy even going to 2027.

    那麼,就我們最新的股本回報率展望的構成而言,它是多種因素的結合,我認為就收入而言,我們的費用投入更大,這更能增加股本回報率,對嗎?這是我們 2027 年策略的一部分。

  • I think we operate in the lower end of our cost guidance that also improves profitability. And a combination of that improved fee intensity, lower cost drives different guidance on ROE.

    我認為我們的營運成本處於指導值的低端,這也提高了獲利能力。費用強度的提高和成本的降低共同導致了 ROE 的不同指導。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Delphine Lee, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的 Delphine Lee。

  • Delphine Lee - Analyst

    Delphine Lee - Analyst

  • Thank you for taking my questions. I just wanted to go back to NII. To understand a little bit, sort of the improvement that you expect in '26, '27 on the lending margin. So from what you said previously, I think it is basically the result of some improving mix.

    感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想回到 NII。為了稍微理解一下,您預計 26 年、27 年貸款利潤率會有所改善。所以從您之前所說的來看,我認為這基本上是一些改進組合的結果。

  • With a better growth in kind of higher margin products, I mean, is there anything else or if you could just comment a bit because, just a bit like how much pick up we should expect on that. And on the liability margin just to go back to another question on the liability margin '27.

    隨著高利潤產品的更好成長,我的意思是,還有其他什麼嗎,或者您是否可以稍微評論一下,因為,就像我們應該預期會有多少成長一樣。關於負債保證金,我們回到關於負債保證金 '27 的另一個問題。

  • I mean, from what you're saying, you do have more than a billion pick up in the rep replicating income, and it feels like you're basically saying the deposit mix is improving and you're still getting volumes as well. So I'm not so sure why the liability margin could not meaningfully exceed 110 basis points and the guidance is change at 100, 110.

    我的意思是,從您所說的情況來看,您的銷售代表複製收入確實增加了 10 多億美元,而且感覺您基本上是在說存款組合正在改善,而且您的存款量仍在增加。所以我不太確定為什麼負債保證金不能有意義地超過 110 個基點,而指導值則在 100、110 之間變化。

  • Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

    Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board

  • I'm not sure how many different ways I can answer the same questions, but I think really on the lending it's about resumption of commercial lending growth in the wholesale bank, right, that has been solved the last two quarters and in our outlook for the next couple of years we expect that to resume to more normal pace.

    我不確定我可以用多少種不同的方式回答同樣的問題,但我認為,就貸款而言,真正的問題是批發銀行商業貸款增長的恢復,這個問題在過去兩個季度已經得到解決,並且在我們對未來幾年的展望中,我們預計批發銀行商業貸款增長將恢復到更正常的速度。

  • And I think we also expect that consumer loans and business banking loans will take a greater share and that's why our guidance of 125 and 130 basis points. And then coming to the liability margin, yes, we have some positive tailwind coming at us, right?

    我認為我們也預期消費貸款和商業銀行貸款將佔據更大的份額,這就是我們給出 125 和 130 個基點的指導價的原因。然後談到負債保證金,是的,我們有一些積極的順風,對吧?

  • The pressure from liability the facility cuts by the ECBs according to the forward curve is coming to an end, so the long term replication is getting there, but at the same time we think competition will be normalized, which means that we need to balance between margin and volume and deposits and that we think, the guidance of 100 to 110, it's a good number to plan for.

    歐洲央行根據遠期曲線削減債務工具所帶來的壓力即將結束,因此長期複製即將到來,但與此同時,我們認為競爭將會正常化,這意味著我們需要在保證金、交易量和存款之間取得平衡,我們認為,100 到 110 的指導值是一個值得規劃的好數字。

  • Delphine Lee - Analyst

    Delphine Lee - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And as there are currently no further questions in the queue, I'd now like to hand the call back over to you, Mr. Van Rijswijk for any additional or closing remarks.

    謝謝。由於目前隊列中沒有其他問題,我現在想將電話交還給您,範里斯維克先生,請您做任何補充發言或結束語。

  • Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

    Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you very much and thanks everybody for your time and your questions. I know it's a pretty busy time for you as well, given that many companies are coming out with the figures in this week, so I hope that you deal with it well and I hope that you can also enjoy a summer break.

    非常感謝,也感謝大家抽出時間和提出的問題。我知道這對你來說也是一段相當忙碌的時期,因為許多公司都會在本周公布數據,所以我希望你能處理好這件事,也希望你能享受一個暑假。

  • Thanks again, and we'll speak in any case in three months’ time again. Thank you.

    再次感謝,無論如何我們會在三個月後再次交談。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for joining today's call, ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,感謝你們參加今天的電話會議,現在可以掛斷電話了。