ING Groep NV (ING) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

(audio in progress) -- and our earnings press release as posted on our website today.

（音訊正在進行中）—以及今天在我們網站上發布的收益新聞稿。

Furthermore, nothing in today's comments constitutes to offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.

此外，今天的評論中的任何內容均不構成出售任何證券的要約或購買任何證券的要約。

Good morning, Steven over to you.

早安，史蒂文給你。

Hi, good morning and welcome to our results call for the third quarter of 2024. I hope you're all well. And as usual, I'm joined by our CEO Ljiljana Cortan; and our CFO, Tanate Phutrakul, I will inform you on the progress we have made on the strategic priorities we have set during the Capital Markets Day earlier this year. And this progress has resulted in another strong quarter and enables us to improve the outlook for the remainder of this year.

大家好，早安，歡迎參加我們 2024 年第三季的業績電話會議。我希望你一切都好。像往常一樣，我們的執行長 Ljiljana Cortan 也加入了我的行列。和我們的財務長 Tanate Phutrakul，我將向您通報我們在今年稍早的資本市場日期間所製定的策略重點所取得的進展。這一進展帶來了另一個強勁的季度，並使我們能夠改善今年剩餘時間的前景。

Today, we'll walk you through the financials of the quarter and provide some insights into our expectations for the margin developments going forward. At the end of the call, we will be happy to take your questions and now let's move to slide number 2.

今天，我們將向您介紹本季的財務狀況，並就我們對未來利潤率發展的預期提供一些見解。通話結束時，我們很樂意回答您的問題，現在讓我們轉到第 2 張投影片。

This slide shows how we have continued accelerating growth. We again had a very strong commercial performance this quarter with a further increase in the number of customers and client balances. And in addition, our total income has reached the highest level ever in the third quarter. Our continued focus on providing superior value for our customers has again proved to be a key differentiator. This quarter, the number of mobile primary customers increased by 189,000, with more customers choosing us as their primary bank in almost all of our countries.

這張投影片展示了我們如何持續加速成長。本季我們再次取得了非常強勁的商業業績，客戶數量和客戶餘額進一步增加。此外，我們第三季的總收入達到了有史以來的最高水準。事實再次證明，我們持續致力於為客戶提供卓越價值是我們的關鍵差異化優勢。本季度，行動主要客戶數量增加了 189,000 名，幾乎所有國家都有更多客戶選擇我們作為他們的主要銀行。

In the last 12 months, we have grown the number of mobile primary customers by around 900,000, we feel comfortable that we will sustain and even accelerate this strong growth trajectory. Our lending book grew by EUR9 billion, with particularly strong performance in mortgages.

在過去 12 個月中，我們的行動主要客戶數量增加了約 90 萬，我們確信我們將維持甚至加速這一強勁的成長軌跡。我們的貸款總額增加了 90 億歐元，其中抵押貸款的表現尤其強勁。

In Netherlands, we have been able to significantly increase our market share in new production mainly as a result of our focus on digitalization and our flexible operations. And this is a clear example of how we increase impacts and deliver value for our customers. And also banking, growth in lending and financial markets was partly offset by ongoing efforts to optimize capital usage, and then on the liability side, a successful campaign in Belgium, which brought in EUR5.5 billion of deposits and growth outside the eurozone were partly offset by seasonal outflows at the end of a campaign in Germany.

在荷蘭，我們能夠大幅增加新生產的市場份額，主要歸功於我們對數位化的關注和靈活的營運。這是我們如何增加影響力並為客戶創造價值的一個明顯例子。此外，銀行業、貸款和金融市場的成長部分被優化資本使用的持續努力所抵消，然後在負債方面，比利時的一項成功活動帶來了55 億歐元的存款，歐元區以外的成長部分被抵消。

The strategic focus on government deposits and wholesale banking results in a net inflow this quarter as well. Annualized customer balance growth saw lending and the deposit combined amounted to 5.3% in the first nine months, exceeding expectations of 4% that we set during Capital Markets Day. And finally, and as mentioned, total income was at a record level this quarter with fee income more than EUR1 billion for the first time.

對政府存款和批發銀行業務的策略重點也導致本季出現淨流入。前 9 個月的年化客戶餘額成長看到貸款和存款總計達到 5.3%，超出了我們在資本市場日期間設定的 4% 的預期。最後，如前所述，本季總收入創下歷史新高，手續費收入首次超過 10 億歐元。

Slide 3 elaborates on how we are increasing impacts. And as highlighted in the previous slides, we have again seen growth in the number of customers, which shows their appreciation for our products and services. We are the most loved banks in many countries we operate in, with a number-one net promoter score in five of our retail markets.

投影片 3 詳細介紹了我們如何增加影響力。正如前面幻燈片中所強調的那樣，我們再次看到客戶數量的增長，這表明他們對我們的產品和服務的讚賞。在我們開展業務的許多國家，我們都是最受歡迎的銀行，在我們的五個零售市場中淨推薦值排名第一。

We continue investing in further digitalizing our product offering. And this quarter, we rolled out our OneApp to business banking clients in Germany. As employees are our most important asset, we work hard on further improving the employee experience, and we're proud that we've been recognized as a top employer in five European countries.

我們繼續投資進一步數位化我們的產品。本季度，我們向德國的商業銀行客戶推出了 OneApp。由於員工是我們最重要的資產，我們努力進一步改善員工體驗，我們很自豪我們已被五個歐洲國家認可為最佳雇主。

And in September, we published our climate progress update in which we highlight the progress that we made in putting sustainability at the heart of what we do. We have EUR28 billion of sustainable volume mobilized in the third quarter and EUR85 billion in the first nine months, which is 15% more than last year.

九月，我們發布了氣候進展更新，其中強調了我們在將永續發展置於工作核心方面取得的進展。我們第三季動員了 280 億歐元的可持續資金，前 9 個月動員了 850 億歐元，比去年增加了 15%。

The number of sustainable deals has also increased further. We have for example, provided EUR250 million of financing to the National Heat Fund in the Netherlands, which provides loans with the aim to make homes and other buildings more sustainable.

可持續交易的數量也進一步增加。例如，我們向荷蘭國家熱力基金提供了 2.5 億歐元的融資，該基金提供的貸款旨在使房屋和其他建築更具可持續性。

On the next slide, I show how we are delivering value for our shareholders. So let's move to slide 4. And here we highlight that our capital generation was again very strong with a four quarter rolling return on equity of 13.8% while still operating at a CET1 ratio of 14.3%. This has allowed us to consistently distribute cash and deliver value to shareholders.

在下一張投影片中，我將展示我們如何為股東創造價值。讓我們轉到投影片 4。在此我們強調，我們的資本產生再次非常強勁，第四季度滾動股本回報率為 13.8%，同時 CET1 比率仍為 14.3%。這使我們能夠持續分配現金並為股東創造價值。

And today we announced another additional distribution of EUR2.5 billion, thereby providing an attractive return of 17% a year. EUR2 billion will be returned in the form of a share buyback starting today, which will have a further structural positive impact on both earnings and dividends per share going forward. And in addition, we will pay a cash dividend of EUR500 million in January 2025, to meet the cash hurdle in '25.

今天，我們宣布再次額外分配 25 億歐元，從而提供 17% 的有吸引力的年回報率。從今天開始，20億歐元將以股票回購的形式返還，這將對未來的每股盈餘和股利產生進一步的結構性正面影響。此外，我們將在 2025 年 1 月支付 5 億歐元的現金股息，以滿足 25 年的現金障礙。

Now that this hurdle will increase to approximately EUR3.5 billion next year, which is a significant step up for the hurdle in 2024. And as we continue to generate capital, we're confident that we can also continue providing attractive shareholder returns going forward, and we will update the market on next steps with our first quarter results next year as per our normal rhythm; i.e., every six months.

現在，明年這項門檻將增至約 35 億歐元，這對 2024 年的門檻來說是一個重大進步。隨著我們繼續籌集資金，我們有信心在未來繼續提供有吸引力的股東回報，我們將按照正常節奏向市場通報明年第一季的業績；即每六個月一次。

And then we move to slide 5 as we did last quarter, I would like to zoom in on an individual country and show how we are executing on our retail strategy. With an income of around EUR2 billion ING Poland is one of our largest franchises, and with a strong presence in all segments of the market; i.e., private individuals, business banking, private banking, wholesale banking, and given that we are integral part of society.

然後我們像上個季度一樣轉到幻燈片 5，我想放大單一國家並展示我們如何執行零售策略。ING 波蘭公司的收入約為 20 億歐元，是我們最大的特許經營商之一，在市場的各個領域都擁有強大的影響力；即私人、商業銀行、私人銀行、批發銀行，並且考慮到我們是社會不可分割的一部分。

The bank is highly successful with a large and growing number of customers, a favorable development in market shares in various products, and strong profitability. And our high level of digitalization and our focus on offering superior value for customers is visible in their appreciation of our products and services. In that we are consistently amongst the most loved banks in the country, have been awarded being the best private bank in the market, and we have a leading position in the business banking sector.

該銀行非常成功，擁有大量且不斷增長的客戶，各種產品的市場份額取得了良好的發展，盈利能力強勁。我們的高水準數位化以及我們對為客戶提供卓越價值的關注從他們對我們產品和服務的讚賞中可見一斑。我們一直是全國最受歡迎的銀行之一，被評為市場上最好的私人銀行，並且我們在商業銀行領域處於領先地位。

Our customer balances have grown with a CAGR of 9% since 2019, and Poland is a significant contributor to ING's fee income and profitability. We firmly believe we can grow further and make more impact for our customers to increase presence in new segments. We have, for example, introduced new value propositions and enhanced existing product offering for Gen-Z and business banking clients. Our Poland franchise is a true example of how we're growing the difference.

自 2019 年以來，我們的客戶餘額以 9% 的複合年增長率增長，波蘭是 ING 手續費收入和盈利能力的重要貢獻者。我們堅信，我們可以進一步發展，為我們的客戶帶來更大的影響，以增加在新領域的影響力。例如，我們為 Z 世代和商業銀行客戶推出了新的價值主張並增強了現有產品。我們的波蘭特許經營權是我們如何擴大差異的真實例子。

And then moving to the next slide, I would like to highlight the progress that we have made in our aim to be a leader in accelerating the low carbon transition. Society is in a race against time when it comes to climate change. We believe that we can make a difference with how we steer our lending in alignment with science-based and sector-agreed decarbonization pathways, which we call our [terror] approach.

然後轉到下一張投影片，我想強調我們在成為加速低碳轉型的領導者的目標方面所取得的進展。在氣候變遷方面，社會正在與時間賽跑。我們相信，我們可以透過如何引導貸款與基於科學和部門商定的脫碳路徑（我們稱之為「恐怖」方法）保持一致來發揮作用。

In the past year, we have expanded our approach to include aluminum and dairy sectors. And for the aluminum industry, we have co-developed standards in which are designed to enable banks to measure and disclose their financial aluminum-related emissions and help them align financing decisions with our own decarbonization targets.

去年，我們擴大了業務範圍，將鋁和乳製品行業納入其中。對於鋁業，我們共同製定了標準，旨在使銀行能夠衡量和揭露其金融鋁相關排放量，並幫助他們根據我們自己的脫碳目標調整融資決策。

Earlier, we also co-developed the standards for the steel and shipping industries. We have also made great strides with our client engagement approach. We have put a data-driven assessment and decision making process in place that has led us to step up in how we advise and support wholesale banking clients with sustainable business transformation. We have also expanded our oil and gas policy and in that, we will stop all new financing to pure play upstream oil and gas companies that continue to develop new fields.

此前，我們也共同製定了鋼鐵和航運業的標準。我們在客戶參與方法方面也取得了長足進步。我們建立了數據驅動的評估和決策流程，這使我們能夠更好地為批發銀行客戶提供可持續業務轉型的建議和支援。我們也擴大了石油和天然氣政策，為此，我們將停止向繼續開發新領域的純上游石油和天然氣公司提供所有新融資。

In addition, we have decided to stop providing new financing for new export energy terminals after 2025. And we're very proud of the progress we've made and are making. And at the same time, there's much more to do for us. We want to work with all stakeholders and everyone who's driving progress, bringing impactful change to the areas where it most needs to happen.

此外，我們也決定在2025年後停止為新的出口能源終端提供新的融資。我們對已經取得和正在取得的進步感到非常自豪。同時，我們還有很多事情要做。我們希望與所有利害關係人和所有推動進步的人合作，為最需要發生的領域帶來有影響力的改變。

Then we move to slide 7. I would like to highlight again that executing on our strategy has resulted in a very successful first nine months of this year, with good commercial and financial performance. This progress on our strategy execution also allows us to improve the outlook for the remainder of this year.

然後我們轉到投影片 7。我想再次強調，今年前九個月我們的策略執行非常成功，並且取得了良好的商業和財務表現。我們在策略執行方面的進展也使我們能夠改善今年剩餘時間的前景。

And we now expect total income to end up above EUR22.5 billion, up from more than EUR22 billion previously. We keep our outlook for total costs unchanged at around EUR12 billion, which means that we expect the cost income ratio to come out lower at around 53%.

我們現在預計總收入最終將超過 225 億歐元，高於先前的 220 億歐元。我們對總成本的預期維持在 120 億歐元左右不變，這意味著我們預計成本收入比將下降至 53% 左右。

And finally, the return on equity is forecast to be more than 13% for the full year. And now with that, I will hand over to Tanate, who will take you through the results in the third quarter in more detail, starting on slide 9.

最後，預計全年股本回報率將超過13%。現在，我將把時間交給 Tanate，他將從幻燈片 9 開始更詳細地向您介紹第三季的結果。

Thank you, Steven. I'd like to start on slide 9, where we show the development of total income, which reached our highest level ever in this quarter. Total net interest income was impacted by treasury results. But the core net interest income lines consisting of lending and liability NII are resilient. I'll share more insights on the specific driver in the next slide.

謝謝你，史蒂文。我想從第 9 張投影片開始，其中我們展示了總收入的發展情況，該收入達到了本季度的最高水平。淨利息收入總額受到財務績效的影響。但由貸款和負債NII組成的核心淨利息收入線具有彈性。我將在下一張幻燈片中分享有關特定驅動程式的更多見解。

Fee income has increased for the third consecutive quarter and is now more than EUR1 billion. Financial market continues to show good performance as well. The biggest growth this quarter came from other income, which benefited from the receipt of our annual dividend from our stake in the Bank of Beijing, and a one-off profit from an associate company that we have invested in.

費用收入連續第三個季度成長，目前已超過 10 億歐元。金融市場也持續表現良好。本季最大的成長來自其他收入，這得益於我們持有北京銀行股份的年度股息以及我們投資的一家聯營公司的一次性利潤。

On the next slide, slide 10, we highlight our sustained commercial momentum with strong net core lending growth of around EUR8.5 billion. We have been able to grow our mortgage book. Growth was achieved in all of our retail countries, partly driven by supportive market developments, but also by our ability to gain market share.

在下一張投影片（投影片 10）中，我們強調了我們持續的商業勢頭，核心貸款淨增長強勁，約 85 億歐元。我們已經能夠增加我們的抵押貸款帳簿。我們所有零售國家/地區都實現了成長，部分原因是市場發展的支持性推動，但也得益於我們獲得市場份額的能力。

On the liability side, we saw core deposit increase by almost EUR3 billion in the second quarter due to strong performance in both retail and wholesale banking. In retail, growth is particularly coming from Belgium, mainly driven by a successful marketing campaign, which brought in EUR5.5 billion. This inflow exceeded the 2.6 billion outflow we saw last year, when the customer bought bonds issued by the Belgian government.

在負債方面，由於零售和批發銀行業務的強勁表現，我們看到第二季核心存款增加了近 30 億歐元。在零售業，成長主要來自比利時，這主要得益於成功的行銷活動，帶來了 55 億歐元的收入。這一流入超過了去年客戶購買比利時政府發行的債券時看到的 26 億美元的流出。

In the wholesale banking sector, growth reflected our continued momentum in strategic initiatives in PCM and money markets. The key point on slide 11 is that the decrease in net interest income was driven by volatile items in treasury related income, while the core driver of net interest income were resilient in this quarter. Liability NII actually increased by EUR15 million, driven by higher volumes at stable margins.

在批發銀行業務領域，成長反映了我們在 PCM 和貨幣市場策略舉措方面的持續勢頭。第11張投影片的關鍵點是，淨利息收入的下降是由資金相關收入的波動性項目推動的，而淨利息收入的核心驅動因素在本季表現強勁。由於銷量增加和利潤率穩定，負債NII實際上增加了1500萬歐元。

Lending NII was slightly lower as volume growth did not fully compensate for the decrease in margin, especially in the wholesale banking segment. We did not have any one-offs this quarter, and the impact of accounting asymmetry decreased somewhat compared to last quarter.

貸款NII略有下降，因為交易量成長未能完全彌補利潤率的下降，特別是在批發銀行業務領域。本季我們沒有出現一次性的情況，會計不對稱的影響較上季有所下降。

On the next slide, we will show the development of the margins. On slide 12, you can see that the liability margin was stable this quarter, supported by lower average deposit costs, and the tailwind from the longer duration in our replicating portfolio, which offset the decrease in short term rates.

在下一張投影片中，我們將展示利潤的發展。在投影片 12 上，您可以看到本季的負債邊際保持穩定，這得益於平均存款成本較低以及我們複製投資組合較長期限的推動作用，抵消了短期利率的下降。

The movement in lending margin this quarter is explained by wholesale banking, due to growth in a low risk segment and some one-off in the previous quarter. The overall net interest margin which takes the development of the total balance sheet into account decreased by seven basis points, mostly driven by lower treasury related noninterest income.

本季貸款利潤率的變動是由批發銀行業務造成的，原因是低風險領域的成長以及上一季的一些一次性成長。考慮到總資產負債表的發展，整體淨利差下降了七個基點，主要是由於國庫相關非利息收入下降。

Overall, the net interest income in the third quarter supports our outlook for the upper end of this EUR16.1 billion to EUR16.6 billion range for the full year 2024.

總體而言，第三季的淨利息收入支持了我們對 2024 年全年 161 億歐元至 166 億歐元區間上限的預期。

Slide 13 illustrates our ability to maintain a strong liability NII also in the lower rate environment. The graph on the left shows a forward curve as per the end of September 2024, compared to the end of June, with rates coming down quite significantly. Forward curves are volatile, and today, again, look somewhat higher than at the end of September.

投影片 13 說明了我們在較低利率環境下也能維持強大的負債 NII 的能力。左圖顯示了截至 2024 年 9 月底的遠期曲線，與 6 月底相比，利率大幅下降。遠期曲線波動較大，今天看起來又比 9 月底稍高。

However, for the sake of simulation, we have used this quarter-end forward curve. You can see the impact of this development on our gross replicating income in the graph in the middle of the slide.

然而，為了模擬的目的，我們使用了這個季末遠期曲線。您可以在投影片中間的圖表中看到這項發展對我們的總複製收入的影響。

Despite this pressure on replicating income, we remain confident that we're able to manage our liability margin at a level between 100 to 110 basis points, whereby we expect the margin in 2025 to end up at the lower end of this range.

儘管面臨複製收入的壓力，但我們仍然有信心將負債​​利潤率控制在 100 至 110 個基點之間，因此我們預計 2025 年的利潤率最終將處於該範圍的下限。

Turning to slide 14. Fee income growth year on year was again double digit, mostly driven by structural revenue drivers or as we term it, the alpha factors. Growth in retail banking was driven by higher daily banking fees, and a growing number of customers with an active investment product account. Together with the growth in customers, we also see asset under management increasing by 19% since last year, which is a key driver for fee income growth going forward as well.

轉到投影片 14。費用收入年增率再次達到兩位數，主要是由結構性收入驅動因素或我們所說的阿爾法因素所推動的。零售銀行業務的成長是由每日銀行費用上漲以及擁有活躍投資產品帳戶的客戶數量不斷增加所推動的。隨著客戶的成長，我們也發現管理資產自去年以來成長了 19%，這也是未來費用收入成長的關鍵驅動力。

The increase in fee income in wholesale banking was mainly attributable to a higher deal flow in global capital markets and in corporate finance. Given the strong performance across the bank, we remain confident that we can reach our EUR4 billion fee income outlook this year and our EUR5 billion target in 2027.

批發銀行業務手續費收入的增加主要歸因於全球資本市場和企業融資交易量的增加。鑑於整個銀行的強勁表現，我們仍然有信心今年能夠實現 40 億歐元的手續費收入預期，並在 2027 年實現 50 億歐元的目標。

Next slide, slide 15. Total expenses in the first nine months of the year increased by just over 3% compared to the same period last year. And we expect total cost to end up at around EUR12 billion for the full year 2024. Expense excluding regulatory costs and incidental items were approximately 7% higher. This increase was mainly driven by the impact of inflation on staff expenses, reflecting salary indexation, and CLA increases across most of our markets.

下一張投影片，投影片 15。今年前九個月的總支出較去年同期成長略高於3%。我們預計 2024 年全年總成本將達到 120 億歐元左右。不包括監管成本和雜費的費用增加了約 7%。這一增長主要是由於通貨膨脹對員工費用的影響（反映了工資指數化）以及我們大多數市場的 CLA 增長。

We also continue investing in our business and had to pay higher VAT following the implementation of the Danske Bank ruling in the Netherlands. Operational efficiencies compensated a large part of these increases and we continue to digitize our service and build our infrastructure to further increase operational leverage.

我們也繼續投資我們的業務，並在荷蘭實施丹麥銀行裁決後不得不支付更高的增值稅。營運效率彌補了這些成長的很大一部分，我們繼續數位化我們的服務並建立我們的基礎設施，以進一步提高營運槓桿。

On to the next slide, on risk costs on slide 16. Total risk costs were EUR336 million this quarter or 20 basis points on average customer lending, equal to our through-the-cycle average. Net additions to stage three provisions amounted to EUR453 million, which is partly offset by a net release in Stage 1 and Stage 2 risk costs, reflecting a partial release of management overlays and some model updates in retail banking. The Stage 3 risk costs were largely due to additions of a few new or existing flows in wholesale banking.

轉到下一張投影片，投影片 16 介紹風險成本。本季的總風險成本為 3.36 億歐元，即平均客戶貸款的 20 個基點，等於我們整個週期的平均值。第三階段撥備淨增加額為 4.53 億歐元，部分被第一階段和第二階段風險成本的淨釋放所抵消，反映了零售銀行管理覆蓋的部分釋放和一些模型更新。第三階段的風險成本主要是因為批發銀行業務增加了一些新的或現有的流量。

Although we see more macroeconomic uncertainty, we remain confident in the quality of our loan book. This is also reflected in a decrease in Stage 2 outstanding flowing repayments and lower levels of new inflows.

儘管我們看到更多的宏觀經濟不確定性，但我們對貸款簿的品質仍然充滿信心。這也反映在第二階段未償流動還款的減少和新資金流入水準的降低。

Slide 17 shows the development of our core core Tier-1 ratio which, increased to a strong 14.3% at the end of the third quarter. CET1 capital increase due to the inclusion of quarterly net profit after reserving for dividend. In the previous quarter, we saw an increase in credit risk weight assets. We also indicated that part of this increase was temporary and would largely be reversed before year end.

投影片 17 顯示了我們的核心核心一級比率的發展情況，該比率在第三季末增至 14.3%。CET1增資係因計入季度淨利後提列股利所致。上季度，我們看到信用風險權重資產增加。我們也表示，部分成長是暫時的，將在年底前基本逆轉。

In the third quarter, part of the impact was indeed reversed, together with positive changes in the profile of our loan book. This is more than offset the higher risk weight asset driven by increase in exposure. Market risk weight assets also declined by around EUR0.5 billion, while operational risk weighted assets were stable.

在第三季度，部分影響確實得到了扭轉，我們的貸款狀況也發生了積極的變化。這足以抵銷因風險敞口增加而導致的較高風險權重資產。市場風險權重資產也下降了約5億歐元，而操作風險權重資產則維持穩定。

The announced EUR2.5 billion additional distribution, we have a pro forma impact of 76 basis points on core Tier-1 ratio, which is well above our target of around 12.5%.

宣布的 25 億歐元額外分配預計對核心一級資本比率產生 76 個基點的影響，遠高於我們約 12.5% 的目標。

That's it. Thank you very much.

就是這樣。非常感謝。

Good. And with that, we open up for Q&A.

好的。至此，我們開始進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）Benjamin Goy，德意志銀行。

Hi, good morning. Two questions please. And the first on your replicating income. You downgraded it 15% to 20%, but you keep the margin. So effectively, I think you have more confidence in repricing deposits. Maybe you can give a bit more color around that. Why this is the case?

嗨，早安。請教兩個問題。第一個是你的複製收入。您將其評級下調了 15% 至 20%，但您保留了利潤。因此，我認為您對存款重新定價更有信心。也許你可以給它更多的色彩。為什麼會出現這種情況呢？

And the second question, thank you for the new disclosure, the retail AUM and e-brokerage volumes. Can you talk a bit about the net inflows you have been seeing -- so outside of market effects and is there any recurring fee income share on those AUMs in terms of pricing or is it mainly activity-driven? Thank you.

第二個問題，感謝您的新揭露、零售資產管理規模和電子經紀業務量。您能否談談您所看到的淨流入——在市場影響之外，這些資產管理規模中是否有任何經常性費用收入份額，在定價方面還是主要由活動驅動？謝謝。

All right. So I'll I'll answer the answer on the inflows and Tanate answer the question on the replication income. So yes, I mean, if you look at the total asset under management last year, we were at around EUR200 billion. Now we're at around EUR230 billion. So that's an increase of around 15% already.

好的。因此，我將回答有關流入的問題，而 Tanate 則回答有關複製收入的問題。所以，是的，我的意思是，如果你看看去年管理的總資產，我們的資產約為 2000 億歐元。現在我們的規模約為 2,300 億歐元。所以這已經增加了 15% 左右。

But more importantly, I think and that is part market, but also part inflows -- but more importantly, if you go to the fees slides, there you also see that 9% of -- we had a 9% increase in investments for the customers to EUR4.6 million. And that's important, I also come back to the Capital Markets Day, because only 10% of our approximately 40 million customers have a active trading account with us. And now we've grown that with 9%.

但更重要的是，我認為這部分是市場，也是部分流入 - 但更重要的是，如果你查看費用幻燈片，你還會看到 9％ - 我們的投資增加了 9％客戶 460 萬歐元。這很重要，我還要回到資本市場日，因為我們大約 4,000 萬客戶中只有 10% 在我們這裡擁有活躍的交易帳戶。現在我們已經成長了 9%。

So yes, on the one hand, this is about an inflow and getting more investments and money from our investors to us, we'd also just do more business with more customers, and still -- and that's what I said on Capital Markets Day, that is gigantic, because 4 million, or 40 million's 10%, which is very low. And that's why we're able to continuously increase the penetration rate and with that, the asset management, and with that, the fees.

所以，是的，一方面，這是關於資金流入並從我們的投資者那裡獲得更多的投資和資金，我們也只是與更多的客戶做更多的業務，而且這就是我在資本市場日所說的，這是一個巨大的數字，因為 400 萬，或 4000 萬的 10%，這是非常低的。這就是為什麼我們能夠持續提高滲透率，從而提高資產管理和費用。

Hi Ben. I think the question on replication is -- you're right, on page 13, we show the new replication based on the curves of September.

嗨本。我認為關於複製的問題是——你是對的，在第 13 頁，我們展示了基於 9 月曲線的新複製。

But I think the reason why we're confident that we can manage the margin within the 100 to 110, is just take a look at Q3 margin that is stable at 112 despite two rate cuts by the ECB, right? And it's three moving parts within that number. The tailwind from the replication remains strong. That's one. The second one, we have volume growth that you know (technical difficulty) on NII; and the third, the liability deposit that we pay to our depositor have also started to come down.

但我認為，我們之所以有信心能夠將利潤率控制在 100 到 110 之間，只是看看第三季度的利潤率，儘管歐洲央行兩次降息，但它仍穩定在 112，對嗎？這個數字中包含三個活動部件。複製帶來的推動力依然強勁。這是一個。第二個，我們在NII上有你知道的交易量成長（技術難度）；第三，我們支付給儲戶的責任押金也開始下降。

You can see that at the bottom of that page, same page, 13, that the combined deposit of savings and term deposits is around 164 basis points, which is lower than the same prevailing number as of Q2. So we do see that the cost of deposit we pay to customer is also coming down as well.

您可以在該頁的底部（同一頁 13）看到儲蓄和定期存款的存款總額約為 164 個基點，低於第二季度的普遍數字。因此，我們確實看到我們支付給客戶的押金成本也在下降。

Thank you. Just a small follow up. I couldn't find the equivalent to the 164 in Q2 this morning. Can you just give us a flavor? Because total deposit costs are down, I saw that.

謝謝。只是一個小小的後續行動。今天早上我找不到與 Q2 中的 164 對應的內容。你能給我們嚐嚐味道嗎？因為總存款成本下降了，我看到了這一點。

Yes, I think the same number for Q2 is 168 basis points.

是的，我認為第二季的相同數字是 168 個基點。

Guillaume Tiberghien, BNP Paribas Exane.

Guillaume Tiberghien，法國巴黎銀行 Exane。

Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Just a question on M&A, actually. Can you remind us the M&A strategy, if there's going to be a bit more cross-border consolidation in Europe? I saw obviously, your comment on Poland. Would there be any interest in a cross border from your side? Thank you.

是的，早安。感謝您提出問題。其實只是一個關於併購的問題。如果歐洲會有更多的跨國整合，您能否提醒我們併購策略？我顯然看到了你對波蘭的評論。你們有興趣跨境嗎？謝謝。

Yes. Well, look, first of all, our organic growth is good, and we continue to do so. So that's our first focus. But yes -- and I've said it also earlier that we would be looking at potential opportunities with strict criteria with regards to return on investment or return on equity, but also very much focused on either domestic consolidation in retail because -- if local skill in retail is important, so if we can increase skill there, and therefore realize synergy benefits in a given market, then we will look at it.

是的。嗯，看，首先，我們的有機成長很好，而且我們會繼續這樣做。這是我們的第一個重點。但是，是的 - 我之前也說過，我們將在投資回報或股本回報方面以嚴格的標準尋找潛在機會，但也非常關注零售業的國內整合，因為 - 如果本地零售技能很重要，因此如果我們能夠提高零售技能，從而在特定市場中實現協同效益，那麼我們就會考慮它。

And secondly, if there is a skill set or product skill that we do not have, whereby we would be able to grow and diversify our income to our customers. So those are the two areas that we are looking at. As a matter of fact, we are looking at opportunities, but so far, we have not been able to find something that would fit us and our criteria.

其次，如果有我們不具備的技能或產品技能，我們將能夠為客戶增加收入並使收入多樣化。這就是我們正在關注的兩個領域。事實上，我們正​​在尋找機會，但到目前為止，我們還沒有找到適合我們和我們標準的東西。

Tarik El Mejjad, Bank of America.

梅賈德 (Tarik El Mejjad)，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks indeed for the more disclosure on the margin side. So I I have two questions. First, on the volume growth. Can you take us through what you see in terms of main drivers of growth coming in the next few quarters (technical difficulty) in the pipelines, maybe sectors, geographies -- just to have a better view on this.

嗨，大家早安。確實感謝您對保證金方面的更多披露。所以我有兩個問題。首先，關於數量增長。您能否向我們介紹一下您所看到的未來​​幾季成長的主要驅動力（技術難度），也許是行業、地區——只是為了更好地了解這一點。

And secondly, on costs. Despite the good resilience on the NII and maybe a bit volatility on the trading side, I mean, the jobs will remain a bit under pressure. So now two quarters also, I mean -- most two quarters into the plan, have you identified or do you see some room for more optimization of cost? As I understand your strategy is more ongoing basis when you see opportunities you implement them? So do you see any new opportunities to save a bit on running costs? Thank you.

其次，關於成本。儘管國家資訊基礎設施具有良好的彈性，而且交易方面可能會出現一些波動，但我的意思是，就業仍將面臨一些壓力。所以現在也是兩個季度，我的意思是 - 計劃的大部分兩個季度，您是否已確定或您是否看到了進一步優化成本的空間？據我了解，您的策略是更持續的基礎，當您看到機會時，您會實施它們嗎？那麼您是否看到了節省一點營運成本的新機會？謝謝。

Yeah. Okay, thank you. On the volume growth, what we continue to see is clear growth, mainly in retail. So we see that mortgage markets are coming back. The biggest part of the retail loan book sits in mortgages. We see mortgages coming back. We already have seen that in the Netherlands. And to some extent in Belgium. The Netherlands, the number of houses being sold this year is around 200,000. That is still a bit lower than two years ago.

是的。好的，謝謝。在銷售成長方面，我們繼續看到明顯的成長，主要是在零售領域。所以我們看到抵押貸款市場正在復甦。零售貸款的最大部分是抵押貸款。我們看到抵押貸款又回來了。我們已經在荷蘭看到了這一點。某種程度上，在比利時也是如此。荷蘭今年售出的房屋數量約為20萬套。這仍然比兩年前低一些。

But coming back to that level, in Germany, for example, the housing market still has been quite benign. So it has come back to the 56% -- well, it was 56% of normal levels a year ago. It is now a bit higher. But still not back to the normal levels that we've seen two, three years ago. And that's, we believe, will gradually come back. So in the mortgage market, we see in general, the market is picking up in that.

但回到這個水平，例如在德國，房地產市場仍然相當良性。所以它已經回到了 56%——嗯，是一年前正常水平的 56%。現在有點高了。但仍然沒有回到兩三年前的正常水平。我們相信，這種情況將會逐漸回歸。因此，在抵押貸款市場上，我們總體上看到，市場正在回升。

And you've seen that in the Netherlands, for example, because of our digitalization of processes, which is -- the better, if not the best, of what is there in the market. As a result of that, we are increasing our market share. That's where we see the main growth in wholesale banking. It still depends on the recovery of GDP growth and yeah, that is still a bit, I would say lukewarm, if I were to call that, I guess. There we will stay disciplined in terms of where we can grow, depending on the outlook of the industry. But the most growth will be expected from the retail in the next couple of quarters.

例如，您已經在荷蘭看到了這一點，因為我們的流程數位化，即使不是市場上最好的，也是更好的。因此，我們正在增加我們的市場份額。這就是我們看到批發銀行業務主要成長的地方。這仍然取決於 GDP 成長的復甦，是的，如果我這麼說的話，我想這仍然有點不冷不熱。在那裡，我們將根據行業的前景，在我們可以發展的領域中保持紀律。但預計未來幾季最大的成長將來自零售業。

Tarik, on cost. Maybe a few points to make. First of all, the collective labor agreement increases are somewhat high, as you can see on page 15, around 4%. And the stickiness of wage inflation is likely to last through 2025 as well. So that's the first point I want to make. The second, we have optimized our balance between investing in our franchise and reaping the benefit from that investment.

塔里克，關於成本。也許有幾點需要指出。首先，集體勞動協議的增幅有點高，如第 15 頁所示，約為 4%。工資通膨的黏性也可能持續到 2025 年。這就是我想說的第一點。其次，我們優化了投資特許經營權和從投資中獲取利益之間的平衡。

The three big buckets of our investment is really client acquisition costs. So these are marketing expenses and other promotional expenses to bring in our targeted 1 million new primary mobile customer. The second bucket is really any expenses related to more front office hires in wholesale banking, as we become more capital light in terms of our model.

我們投資的三大部分其實是客戶獲取成本。這些是行銷費用和其他促銷費用，目的是吸引我們目標 100 萬新的主要行動客戶。第二個桶子實際上是與批發銀行業務更多前台招聘相關的任何費用，因為我們的模式變得更加輕資本。

But the majority of our investment is really building out our product and tech platform. These are the major investments that we have. And with respect to savings, it's really seeing the optimization and the investments coming through. We continue to optimize our network. So people that works in our branches in, in Belgium, in Turkey and in Poland, those are coming through. As you can see in our numbers, we also see contact center expenses also coming down as we digitize more and make our mobile channels more user friendly for our customer. And we also see the first signs of KYC optimization feeding through in that 2% reduction in cost.

但我們的大部分投資實際上是在建立我們的產品和技術平台。這些是我們擁有的主要投資。在節省方面，我們確實看到了優化和投資的實現。我們不斷優化我們的網路。因此，在我們比利時、土耳其和波蘭分支機構工作的人們正在經歷這些。正如您在我們的數據中看到的那樣，隨著我們進一步數位化並使我們的行動管道對客戶更加友好，聯絡中心費用也在下降。我們也看到了 KYC 優化的初步跡象，即成本降低了 2%。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Farquhar Murray, Autonomous Research.

法誇爾·默里，自主研究。

Good morning, all. Just two questions from me. Firstly, on the Belgian deposit inflow, obviously, congratulations on the EUR5.5 billion there. I just wondered if you could outline how ING intends to recoup the initial loss on the one year term offer there. Specifically, I'd be quite interested in what products you're hoping to cross sell into and perhaps the retention you're assuming around that.

大家早安。我只想問兩個問題。首先，關於比利時存款流入，顯然，祝賀 55 億歐元。我只是想知道您是否能概述一下 ING 打算如何彌補一年期報價的初始損失。具體來說，我對您希望交叉銷售哪些產品以及您假設的保留率非常感興趣。

And then secondly, some more point of detail. Just on the treasury income within NII, could you give us maybe some sense of where you think we stand versus a normalized rate there? And also possibly what you think the structural trend is in your treasury results from here? Thanks.

其次，還有一些細節。就 NII 內的國庫收入而言，您能否告訴我們您認為我們與那裡的正常化利率相比所處的情況？您認為您的財務結構趨勢可能是從這裡得出的？謝謝。

Okay. Tonight, we'll take the question on treasury, and I will take it on the Belgian deposits. Yeah, that was indeed quite a steal with that deposit campaign which brought in EUR5.5 billion. Well, look, there are different reasons why you do campaigns -- you can do a campaign because you then make money on that particular deposit amount on the fly, and/or you return them into primary clients. And that means that you then do cross sell with them in terms of daily banking. That's where it typically starts. And then investment products and mortgages.

好的。今晚，我們將討論有關財政部的問題，我將討論有關比利時存款的問題。是的，對於帶來 55 億歐元收入的存款活動來說，這確實是一筆不小的收入。嗯，看，你做行銷活動有不同的原因——你可以做行銷活動，因為你可以透過特定的存款金額即時賺錢，和/或將它們回饋給主要客戶。這意味著您可以在日常銀行業務方面與他們進行交叉銷售。這通常是事情開始的地方。然後是投資產品和抵押貸款。

So those would be the typical products that we would cross sell them into. To give you an example, are the last two campaigns in Germany that we had. So both the one in the first quarter of '23 and the first quarter of 2024. Two-thirds of the money after the campaign was overstayed -- and those customers therefore became primary customers. So that's the way that we are structuring these campaigns and we're confident that we can also do that this time.

因此，這些將是我們交叉銷售的典型產品。舉個例子，我們在德國進行的最後兩次活動。所以無論是 23 年第一季還是 2024 年第一季。活動結束後，三分之二的資金逾期滯留——這些客戶因此成為主要客戶。這就是我們建構這些活動的方式，我們有信心這次也能做到這一點。

Then on other NII (technical difficulty), I think we, we give quite a clear disclosure in terms of what we make on lending NII, what we make on liability NII, and the other NII is more volatile. We give you the lines of what we call the treasury asymmetry, and as well as the financial asymmetry, which results in a negative number of around EUR400 million.

然後，在其他 NII（技術難度）方面，我認為我們在貸款 NII 上的收入、負債 NII 上的收入以及其他 NII 的波動性更大方面給出了相當明確的披露。我們為您提供了所謂的國庫不對稱以及財務不對稱的線條，這會導致約 4 億歐元的負數。

And when you look at that number and strip that out, you see that the volatile items within our treasury results ranges this quarter on income of around EUR200 million. And for the previous quarter, around EUR300 million. These are quite volatile items. So it's hard to predict, but I think a good range over time is between EUR200 million to EUR300 million in other NII in terms of these volatile items. That will be what we experienced in the past few quarters.

當您查看該數字並將其剔除時，您會發現本季我們財務業績中的波動性項目收入約為 2 億歐元。上一季約為 3 億歐元。這些都是非常不穩定的物品。所以很難預測，但我認為隨著時間的推移，就這些波動性項目而言，其他國家資訊基礎設施的一個不錯的範圍是在 2 億歐元到 3 億歐元之間。這將是我們在過去幾季所經歷的。

Many thanks.

非常感謝。

Kiri Vijayarajah, HSBC.

Kiri Vijayarajah，匯豐銀行。

Yes, good morning, everyone. A couple of questions, if I may. So firstly, in the wholesale bank, when you think about the [RWA] efficiencies. And given the short-term demand at the moment for things like SRTs, and is there a sense that you want to accelerate a bit, maybe get some transactions done before year end while the mood is still positive for those type of deals? Or do you think about the wholesale bank, the capital efficiency was more of a medium term story. So no real sense of urgency on a one to two quarter view.

是的，大家早安。如果可以的話，有幾個問題。首先，在批發銀行，當你考慮 [RWA] 效率時。考慮到目前對 SRT 等產品的短期需求，您是否有一種想要加快速度的感覺，也許在年底前完成一些交易，同時對此類交易的情緒仍然積極？或者你想想批發銀行，資本效率更多的是一個中期故事。因此，從一到兩個季度的角度來看，沒有真正的緊迫感。

And then still sticking with the wholesale bank in Germany and the Mittelstand sector there, I wonder if you're seeing any early signs -- fresh cracks appearing, maybe in the automotive supply chain sector, for instance. I know overall, you're seeing positive ratings migration at the moment, but just wondered if there were any early warning signs you're seeing there? Thank you.

然後仍然堅持德國的批發銀行和中小型企業部門，我想知道你是否看到任何早期跡象 - 例如，可能在汽車供應鏈部門出現新的裂縫。我知道總體而言，您目前看到了積極的收視率遷移，但只是想知道您是否看到了任何早期預警信號？謝謝。

I will give all these questions to Ljiljana.

我會把所有這些問題都交給Ljiljana。

Good morning, and thank you for the questions. Well, on the wholesale banking and [RW] efficiency. Well, we have started really looking into that more intensely and we do expect some first, I would say reaping off of the impacts of the SRTs in '25. So you clearly know that the process is also requiring the regulatory approval, we have built internal capacities. So we are I think fully loaded to do this more seriously in '25.

早安，謝謝你的提問。好吧，關於批發銀行業務和[RW]效率。嗯，我們已經開始更深入地研究這個問題，我們確實期望首先得到一些成果，我想說的是，我們將在 25 年收穫 SRT 的影響。所以你清楚知道這個過程也需要監管機構的批准，我們已經建立了內部能力。因此，我認為我們已經做好了在 25 年更認真地進行這項工作的準備。

On the Germany Mittelstand, first, let me start with a statement that we are very small there in that area. So our portfolio on that part is really minuscule and there are strong, I would say attempts and also wishes to grow there. Clearly, the macroeconomic environment also needs to be taken into account.

關於德國中小型企業，首先我要聲明的是，我們在該領域的規模非常小。因此，我們在這方面的投資組合確實很小，但我想說，我們有很強的嘗試，也希望在那裡成長。顯然，宏觀經濟環境也需要考慮。

But as we've discussed during our Capital Markets Day, the intention to start there is as well from the liability side, so from deposit side, so get in the clients with the current accounts and savings accounts and making sure that they are also then after a certain time transferring this, I would say relationship into more asset heavy relationship, which will clearly be differently as well remunerated.

但正如我們在資本市場日期間所討論的那樣，從負債方面開始，從存款方面開始，因此讓客戶擁有活期帳戶和儲蓄帳戶，並確保他們也能參與其中。的是，關係會變成更重資產的關係，這顯然會有所不同，報酬也會不同。

We also are very much focused on being digital and this is where we believe in Germany, specifically in Mittelstand, we can make the difference and so making sure that our offer also going forward is fitting with our digital prerogative is something that we are taking into place when we are deciding about the timing of putting certain products in place.

我們也非常注重數位化，這就是我們相信在德國，特別是在中小型企業，我們可以做出改變的地方，因此確保我們未來的產品也符合我們的數位特權，這是我們正在考慮的事情當我們決定放置某些產品的時間時。

Sam Moran-Smyth, Barclays.

薩姆·莫蘭·史密斯，巴克萊銀行。

Hi morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Two questions on liability, if that's okay. So one specifically on deposits in Belgium. You noted that you brought in EUR5.5 billion of term deposits from the offer in September. I wondered if you could help me square that with the Q-on-Q increase in total deposits in Belgium of EUR2.4 billion, so EUR3 billion less if I understand correctly, the term deposit offer was just for new money.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。兩個關於責任的問題，如果可以的話。這是一個專門針對比利時存款的問題。您指出，您在 9 月透過該優惠獲得了 55 億歐元的定期存款。我想知道您是否可以幫我計算比利時總存款環比增長 24 億歐元，如果我理解正確的話，則減少 30 億歐元，定期存款優惠只是針對新資金。

So should I understand from that that there was kind of EUR3 billion deposit outflows working in the other direction and then more specifically on the replicating portfolio? Apologies if I missed it on the slide, but is there any update on the 50% less than one year maximum 50% more than one year or should we assume that that's the same? Thank you.

那麼我是否應該從中理解，有 30 億歐元的存款外流在另一個方向上起作用，然後更具體地說是在複製投資組合上？如果我在投影片上錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但是對於一年以內最多 50% 最多一年以上 50% 是否有任何更新，還是我們應該假設這是相同的？謝謝。

So that's there's only one -- that's one question, right, Sam?

所以只有一個——這是一個問題，對吧，山姆？

Sorry. Perhaps my line cut off. So there was one question on Belgian deposits -- so EUR5.5 billion.

對不起。也許我的線路被切斷了。因此，有一個關於比利時存款的問題——即 55 億歐元。

That we got. The second question we didn't get.

我們得到了。第二個問題我們沒有得到。

Sorry. Second question was on the replicating portfolio. Whether we should still consider 50% less than one year maturity and 50% of the more than one year maturity or whether there's been any changes there?

對不起。第二個問題是關於複製投資組合。我們是否仍應考慮 50% 不到一年的期限和 50% 超過一年的期限，或是否有任何變化？

All right. So Tanate will take the question on replication portfolio, and I'll take it on liability and I -- in Belgium. So indeed, so the campaign gave us EUR5.5 billion. And you asked, why is that an only an increase of about EUR2.5 billion? That's correct, that it has to do with outflows from the business banking side, particularly one customer with big amounts that where the deposits depending on the activities come in or go out. So there is no structural.

好的。因此，塔納特將回答有關複製投資組合的問題，我將承擔責任，而我——在比利時。事實上，這次競選給了我們 55 億歐元。您問，為什麼只增加了約25億歐元？這是正確的，它與商業銀行方面的流出有關，特別是一個金額很大的客戶，其存款取決於活動的流入或流出。所以沒有結構性。

And Sam, do confirm the replication distribution hasn't changed, it's roughly 50% less than a year and 50% more than a year.

Sam，請確認複製分佈沒有改變，大約比一年少 50%，比一年多 50%。

Thank you. Got it.

謝謝。知道了。

Giulia Aurora Miotto, Morgan Stanley.

朱莉婭·奧羅拉·米奧托，摩根士丹利。

Yes. Hi, good morning. Two questions for me, please. The first one is actually back to Ljiljana on asset quality. If I look at slide 16, the stage three ratio in wholesale banking increasing. I know it's super low, 1.9, but still increasing. And if I look at cost of risk, 20 basis points. I know it's through the cycle, but because you're using some release of overlays.

是的。嗨，早安。請問我兩個問題。第一個實際上是回到利賈納的資產品質問題。如果我看一下投影片 16，批發銀行業務的第三階段比率正在增加。我知道它非常低，1.9，但仍在增加。如果我看一下風險成本，那就是 20 個基點。我知道這是整個週期，但因為你正在使用一些覆蓋版本。

So what do you expect on the evolution of cost of risk? Do you think we could -- 2025 see a deterioration, especially on the corporate side? And which areas are you watching more closely? That's the first question.

那麼您對風險成本的演變有何預期？您認為 2025 年情況會惡化嗎，特別是在企業方面？您更密切關注哪些領域？這是第一個問題。

And then sorry to go back to slide 13, which is my favorite slide of this quarter. How do you square the idea that you can lower the compensation on deposits with the trend we have seen from ING of essentially being a leader in offering higher rates and gaining market share via deposit growth.

然後很抱歉回到投影片 13，這是本季我最喜歡的幻燈片。您如何看待降低存款補償的想法與我們從 ING 看到的趨勢（本質上是提供更高利率並透過存款成長獲得市場份額的領導者）。

So would you be willing to essentially give away some growth on deposits in order to defend the margins or how are you thinking about the balance between the margin and the growth in a much lower rate environment? Thank you.

那麼，您是否願意放棄一些存款成長以捍衛利潤率，或者您如何考慮在利率低得多的環境下利潤率與成長之間的平衡？謝謝。

All right. Good questions. We'll start with asset quality with Lilijana and then we go to liability NII with Tanate.

好的。好問題。我們將從 Lilijana 的資產品質開始，然後由 Tanate 討論負債 NII。

Good morning Giulia. Thank you for the question. Yes, as you've said, our risk costs in the third quarter are at the -- through the cycle average at 20 bps and EUR336 million. And this is in line with our expectations. Clearly, as you mentioned, there is an impact of overlays in it, but this is exactly what overlays are being built for, and this is how we manage our risk costs through the cycle and not a point in time. Clearly, the majority of the impact also this quarter comes from the Stage 3.

早上好朱莉婭。謝謝你的提問。是的，正如您所說，我們第三季的風險成本處於週期平均值 20 個基點和 3.36 億歐元。這符合我們的預期。顯然，正如您所提到的，其中存在覆蓋的影響，但這正是覆蓋的目的，這就是我們在整個週期而不是某個時間點管理風險成本的方式。顯然，本季的大部分影響也來自第三階段。

But if you compare it to the quarter on quarter, you will see that they remain broadly stable, if not slightly lower at the wholesale banking side. This is again, I would say, related to a number of additions for new and existing S3 files that are affected with specific circumstances. And part of these circumstances clearly comes from the delayed impact of the macroeconomic environment that is uncertain and already for quite some time subdued.

但如果你將其與季度相比，你會發現它們在批發銀行方面即使不是略有下降，也基本上保持穩定。我想說，這又與受特定情況影響的新的和現有的 S3 文件的許多添加有關。這些情況的部分原因顯然來自於宏觀經濟環境的延遲影響，而宏觀經濟環境的不確定性和已經在相當長一段時間內處於低迷狀態。

However, while we do have the confidence that we are actually doing a good job in a quite difficult environment is that our low Stage 2 ratio remains low and yes, on wholesale bank is increasing due to this lumpiness on the few clients that I've mentioned. However, also, if you're looking at the Stage 2 stock and the trend in the third quarter, you will see that it's decreasing. So this is something that is giving us a confidence that the new inflows are low and that probably going forward, we will be able actually probably definitely going forward. I'm sure we will be able to manage through the cycle as we've done so far.

然而，雖然我們確實有信心，我們實際上在相當困難的環境中做得很好，但我們的第二階段比率仍然很低，是的，由於我所接觸的少數客戶的這種不穩定，批發銀行的比率正在增加。然而，如果您查看第二階段的股票和第三季的趨勢，您會發現它正在下降。因此，這讓我們有信心，新的資金流入量很低，而且未來我們可能確實能夠繼續前進。我相信我們將能夠像迄今為止所做的那樣度過這個週期。

You asked -- apologies, you asked about areas to watch. Yeah, clearly, also just looking around in the environment, we've seen that commercial real estate is still I would say very high in the headlines. However, we do see this stabilizing and we do see as well in our numbers. However, we remain very vigilant because -- aware of of possible spillover effects in different areas which we don't see yet. But as I say, we are not complacent there.

你問了——抱歉，你問了需要關注的領域。是的，顯然，環顧四周，我們發現商業房地產仍然是頭條新聞的熱門話題。然而，我們確實看到了這種穩定，而且我們的數據也確實看到了這種情況。然而，我們仍然保持高度警惕，因為我們意識到不同領域可能存在的溢出效應，但我們尚未看到。但正如我所說，我們並沒有因此而自滿。

And definitely, we do see some of the cyclical industries being under temporary stress through a few of these clients that I mentioned. But also due to the competitiveness, for example, that is becoming more and more important specifically for the European clients.

當然，我們確實看到一些週期性行業由於我提到的一些客戶而面臨暫時的壓力。但也由於競爭力，例如，這對歐洲客戶來說變得越來越重要。

We do see automotive industry facing, I would say some industry trends and challenges and they are not just related to technology part which we have been managing, I think well in our selection criteria of the clients, but also connected to -- as I said, with the lacking of demand against subdued economic growth. Nevertheless, our portfolio remains performing quite well in that area based, as I said on the selectivity criteria that we have put in place quite early in order to differentiate the winners of the future.

我們確實看到汽車行業面臨一些行業趨勢和挑戰，我認為它們不僅與我們一直在管理的技術部分相關，我認為在我們的客戶選擇標準中，而且還與——正如我所說，由於經濟增長疲弱，需求不足。儘管如此，我們的投資組合在該領域仍然表現良好，正如我所說，根據我們很早就制定的選擇性標準，以區分未來的贏家。

And Giulia on your question on deposits, I think we are competitive in terms of our pricing in most of all of the markets we operate in. But I want to differentiate between normal offering in terms of rates and promotional campaigns that we run from time to time, right?

朱利亞（Giulia）關於您關於存款的問題，我認為我們在我們經營的大多數市場的定價方面都具有競爭力。但我想區分正常的價格優惠和我們不時舉辦的促銷活動，對嗎？

And as you can see in Belgium, we ran a promotional campaign during Q3, we also ran a promotional campaign twice a year in the past in Germany, right? And those comes with somewhat higher promotional term rates. But of course, we expect that as these customers join us, we are able to cross sell payment accounts, investment funds and attract them to remain with us when the promotional campaigns are over.

正如您在比利時看到的那樣，我們在第三季度開展了促銷活動，過去我們在德國也每年進行兩次促銷活動，對嗎？這些都具有較高的促銷期限費率。當然，我們希望隨著這些客戶加入我們，我們能夠交叉銷售支付帳戶、投資基金，並在促銷活動結束後吸引他們留在我們身邊。

And that we have done successfully. We model this quite carefully and we're confident that these promotional campaigns are accretive to our NII and you see that's the case for the last three months in terms of maintaining a net interest margin in liability of 112 basis points.

我們已經成功地做到了這一點。我們對此進行了非常仔細的建模，我們相信這些促銷活動會增加我們的 NII，並且您會看到過去三個月的情況就是將負債淨息差維持在 112 個基點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Benoit Petrarque, Kepler Cheuvreux.

（操作員說明）Benoit Petrarque、Kepler Cheuvreux。

Yes, good morning. So first question on my side will be on the lending and I which was yeah, quite weak quarter on quarter despite the very strong -- growth momentum on on the landing side. So I mean, there have been some reasons like they're risking in the quarter, probably loan sale and production into low margin business. But could you help to notify, let's say the drop link to do the risking actions versus the kind of underlying picture on the landing NII side quarter on quarter. And what do you expect in terms of landing going forward? Thank you for that.

是的，早安。因此，我這邊的第一個問題將是關於貸款，是的，儘管登陸方面的成長勢頭非常強勁，但季度環比相當疲軟。所以我的意思是，有一些原因，例如他們在本季面臨風險，可能是貸款銷售和生產進入低利潤業務。但是您能否幫忙通知一下，比方說執行風險操作的下降連結與逐季登陸 NII 方面的基本圖片類型。您對未來著陸有何期望？謝謝你。

And then the second one is, actually two small ones, liability NII, so 110 bps maintain. Could we get one quarters or two quarters just below 100 potentially or do you think we will remain above the 100 bps liability margin every quarter in '25.

然後第二個是，實際上是兩個小，負債NII，所以維持110個基點。我們能否有一個季度或兩個季度的負債率略低於 100，或者您認為我們將在 25 年每個季度保持高於 100 個基點的負債利潤率。

And then maybe on the other income, which was very strong and consensus does not believe the strong figure obviously. But -- is that a sustainable level you think? Do you expect this the current other income generation to be maintained going forward? Thank you.

然後也許是其他收入，這非常強勁，但共識顯然不相信這個強勁的數字。但是—您認為這是一個可持續的水平嗎？您預計目前的其他收入來源會繼續維持下去嗎？謝謝。

Okay. Thanks Benoit. I'll take the one on lending NII and Tenate will take it on the liability side and our income. No, I mean, look at the -- if you lending NII, indeed, it was impacted this quarter by someone else whereby we had last quarter in the road, some deals that were in a somewhat more risky spectrum at this quarter. We have more high investment grade clients and that brings in the margin down. It's a combination of many sectors in many markets and a few deals here. And there can flip the margin depending on what the new production actually does, but there is no trend in it.

好的。謝謝伯努瓦。我將承擔 NII 貸款方面的責任，而 Tenate 將承擔責任方面和我們的收入方面的責任。不，我的意思是，看看——如果你放貸NII，事實上，它在本季度受到了其他人的影響，我們上個季度正在進行中，一些交易在本季度的風險更大。我們擁有更多的高投資等級客戶，這導致利潤率下降。它是許多市場的許多部門和一些交易的組合。根據新產品的實際用途，利潤率可能會發生變化，但沒有趨勢。

So if you ask us, okay, is this giving a signal in terms of the margin is coming down on more pressure and also banking, the answer is no. And we do expect that the lending margin will continue to hover around 130 basis points as we have said before. Tenate, liability?

因此，如果您問我們，這是否表明利潤率因更大的壓力和銀行業務而下降，答案是否定的。正如我們之前所說，我們確實預計貸款利潤率將繼續徘徊在 130 個基點左右。租約、責任？

Yes, on liability, our sguidance is that we're guiding towards over 110 for 2024 and then around 100 to 110 for the coming period. What I think is determining where we are within that range is the shape and how fast the ECB lower rates, right? And if the current curve that we see in September were to manifest itself, you would expect that we would be operating at a lower boundary of that 100 to 110 net interest margin on liability.

是的，就責任而言，我們的指導是，2024 年我們的目標是超過 110 個，然後在接下來的一段時間內達到 100 到 110 個左右。我認為決定我們在這個範圍內的位置的是歐洲央行降息的形狀和速度，對嗎？如果我們在 9 月看到的當前曲線顯現出來，您會預期我們將在 100 至 110 負債淨利差的下限下營運。

And then to answer your question on other income, yes, it's been a strong quarter for us and back by -- do -- some requests from analysts? We have also given a bit more highlight in terms of other income on page 23 we break it down into what is NII coming from client business? What is other ni I related to accounting asymmetry and what are true volatility within that line, right?

然後回答你關於其他收入的問題，是的，這對我們來說是一個強勁的季度，並且得到了分析師的一些要求嗎？我們也在第 23 頁上對其他收入進行了更多強調，我們將其分解為來自客戶業務的 NII 是什麼？與會計不對稱相關的其他 ni I 是什麼以及該線內的真實波動性是什麼，對嗎？

You can see that that client businesses around [EUR400 million] to [EUR470 million]. Accounting as symmetry is quite clear. And yes, indeed, in this quarter, we had some higher volatile items in other income, but we will give you this breakdown to give you more transparency in that line.

您可以看到，客戶業務約 [4 億歐元][4.7 億歐元]。會計作為對稱性是非常清楚的。是的，確實，在本季度，我們的其他收入中有一些波動性較高的項目，但我們將為您提供此細分，以便讓您在該方面更加透明。

Anke Reingen, RBC.

安克雷因根，加拿大皇家銀行。

Yeah, thank you very much for taking my question. It's just actually to follow up on the lending margin. In Q3, I mean, we talked about the decline in the whole time margin. Are you able to give us some color on what's happening on the retail lending margin side? So I guess it's stable or but pockets, you see different trends.

是的，非常感謝您回答我的問題。實際上只是為了跟進貸款保證金。我的意思是，在第三季度，我們討論了整個時間利潤的下降。您能為我們介紹一下零售貸款保證金方面發生的情況嗎？所以我認為它是穩定的，但也可能是口袋，你會看到不同的趨勢。

And then about the lending margin, the hover around 130 basis points. In 2025, could we expect maybe more towards the lower end considering? I mean, the outlook on volume goals as well as if they move to it might, you might want to lock in some and I guess there's a concern more on asset quality. So could lending margins be at the lower end of a hovering 130 basis points in 2025? Thank you very much.

然後是貸款利潤率，徘徊在 130 個基點左右。到 2025 年，我們是否可以期待更多的低階產品？我的意思是，對於數量目標的前景以及它們是否會實現這一目標，您可能想要鎖定一些目標，我想人們更擔心資產品質。那麼，2025 年貸款利潤率是否會徘徊在 130 個基點的低端？非常感謝。

All right. Thank you very much. So if we talk about the wholesale banking margin again, and maybe I'll repeat myself to what I told to Benoit, but these are a number of individual files in wholesale banking that can tip it to one end or the other whereby in some quarters, when you see some big underwritings or big deals that are in the -- let's say, low investment grade or shipping, investment grade spectrum that you then see the margin increase or depending on certain sectors that are specialized circuit finance sectors at the margin increases.

好的。非常感謝。因此，如果我們再次談論批發銀行業務利潤率，也許我會重複我對伯努瓦說的話，但這些是批發銀行業務中的許多單獨文件，可以在某些季度將其推向一端或另一端。 ，當您看到一些大型承銷或大型交易時，比如說，低投資等級或運輸、投資等級範圍，您就會看到利潤率增加，或者取決於某些專門的循環金融部門的利潤率增加。

But then if you do more, let's say plain vanilla large blue chip corporate transactions, then the margin goes down a little bit. But going forward, we are comfortable with our margin of 130 basis points even more. So if we do we -- what we do see in the mortgage side, which is currently a big growth engine for us with the interest rates coming down and there's always a lag in it, that is beneficial for our mortgage margins as well. So we're very comfortable with the margin level of 130 basis points.

但如果你做更多的事情，比如說普通的大型藍籌公司交易，那麼利潤就會下降一點。但展望未來，我們對 130 個基點的利潤率更加滿意。因此，如果我們這樣做——我們在抵押貸款方面確實看到了這一點，目前抵押貸款對我們來說是一個巨大的成長引擎，隨著利率下降，而且總是存在滯後，這對我們的抵押貸款利潤率也有利。因此，我們對 130 個基點的保證金水準感到非常滿意。

Okay, that's it. Thank you very much. And for Q3 on the retail lending margin side, do you see improving trends?

好吧，就是這樣。非常感謝。對於第三季的零售貸款利潤率，您認為有改善趨勢嗎？

Yeah, that's what you asked as well. So that was stable compared to Q2.

是的，你也是這麼問的。所以與第二季相比是穩定的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matt Clark, Mediobanca.

馬特·克拉克，Mediobanca。

Hi. Can I come back to the Treasury, other NII line? Thanks for the, the guidance that it should run between the second quarter and third quarter level. But over the longer period over the last kind of, I guess, two years since you've been disclosing that it has come down from more of a EUR400 million per quarter down to that EUR200 million to EUR300 million level. So I'm just wondering what was driving that deterioration and why is that deterioration now over? And that's the first question.

你好。我可以回到財政部、其他 NII 行嗎？感謝您的指導，它應該在第二季和第三季的水平之間運行。但在過去的較長時期內，我想，自您披露以來的兩年內，它已從每季 4 億歐元以上下降到 2 億歐元至 3 億歐元的水平。所以我只是想知道是什麼導致了這種惡化以及為什麼這種惡化現在已經結束了？這是第一個問題。

Second question is on the Belgian, time deposit campaign. I'm just curious to what extent you pre hedged. The, the interest that you will have to pay to those customers before we saw the steep decline in swap rates into September. So just trying to gauge whether you're on the hook for the full negative spread at the start of September or whether you've got a more benign negative spread because you've locked in better returns ahead of time. Thank you.

第二個問題是關於比利時的定期存款活動。我只是好奇你預先對沖的程度如何。在我們看到 9 月掉期利率急劇下降之前，您必須向這些客戶支付利息。因此，只需嘗試衡量您是否在 9 月初就陷入了完全負利差，或者您是否因為提前鎖定了更好的回報而獲得了更良性的負利差。謝謝。

All right. On the second question, the answer is yes, we did pre hedge part of it. So therefore we locked it in.

好的。關於第二個問題，答案是肯定的，我們做了部分對沖。因此我們將其鎖定。

And then the first one, Matthew, the decline year on year is due to the unremunerated minimum reserve requirement by the ECB, right, depending on rates, but it costs us somewhere between EUR70 million to EUR90 million per quarter in terms of lower NII from that new rules from the ECB.

然後第一個，馬修，同比下降是由於歐洲央行的無償最低準備金要求，對，取決於利率，但就較低的NII而言，每季度我們損失了7000萬至9000萬歐元。的新規則。

Very clear. Thanks.

非常清楚。謝謝。

Thank you. There are no further questions in queue. I will now hand it back to Steven Van Rijswijk for closing remarks.

謝謝。隊列中沒有其他問題。現在我將把它交還給 Steven Van Rijswijk 作結束語。

Yeah, thank you very much operator. Thank you very much all for dialing in and for your questions. I wish you a very good day. I'm sure, it's a very busy day today with all the results coming in. So all the best with that. And I hope to speak to you soon again. Cheers.

是的，非常感謝運營商。非常感謝大家撥通電話並提出問題。祝您有美好的一天。我敢肯定，今天是非常忙碌的一天，所有結果都即將到來。祝一切順利。我希望很快能再次與您交談。乾杯。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝你。