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Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Good morning. Thank you, and good morning, and welcome to our results call for the third quarter of 2025. I hope you're all well, and thank you for joining us. As usual, I'm joined by our CRO, Ljiljana Cortan; and our CFO, Tanate Phutrakul. While macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty remains prevalent, we have again delivered a strong quarter as we continue to execute our strategy to accelerate growth, increase our impact and deliver customer value.
早安.謝謝,早安,歡迎參加我們2025年第三季業績電話會議。希望你們一切都好,感謝你們的參與。與我一同出席的還有我們的首席營收長 Ljiljana Cortan 和財務長 Tanate Phutrakul。儘管宏觀經濟和地緣政治的不確定性依然普遍存在,但我們繼續執行加速成長、擴大影響力並為客戶創造價值的策略,再次取得了強勁的季度業績。
In today's presentation, I will start by sharing further insights in how our capital allocation will continue to fuel growth and increase returns. And I will also update you on our long-term capital target. Thereafter, Tanate will walk you through the quarterly financials. And as always, we will be happy to take your questions at the end of the call. And now let's move to slide 2.
在今天的演講中,我將首先分享更多關於我們的資本配置將如何繼續推動成長和提高回報的見解。我也會向你們報告我們的長期資本目標。之後,塔納特將帶你了解季度財務狀況。像往常一樣,我們很樂意在通話結束時回答您的問題。現在我們來看第二張投影片。
This slide highlights our continued strong commercial momentum in the third quarter with solid growth across key areas. We have added nearly 200,000 mobile primary customers during the quarter, bringing growth in the last 12 months to over EUR1.1 million, well ahead of the target set at our Capital Markets Day.
這張投影片突顯了我們第三季持續強勁的商業發展勢頭,各關鍵領域均實現了穩健成長。本季我們新增了近 20 萬名行動主用戶,使過去 12 個月的成長超過 110 萬歐元,遠遠超過了我們在資本市場日設定的目標。
Our loan book expanded significantly in both Retail and Wholesale and Retail saw EUR8.6 billion in net core lending growth driven mainly by residential mortgages. Wholesale Banking also delivered a strong quarter, supported by trade finance services and lending, reflecting increased client financing needs.
我們的貸款組合在零售和批發領域均大幅擴張,其中零售業務淨核心貸款成長86億歐元,主要由房屋抵押貸款推動。批發銀行業務本季表現強勁,貿易融資服務和貸款業務為其提供了支持,反映出客戶融資需求的增加。
Core deposits declined slightly following substantial inflows in previous quarters and this was largely due to the inclusion of promotional campaigns and seasonal spending patterns during the summer in Retail Banking. On the other hand, Wholesale Banking posted strong inflows, particularly in payments and cash management, financial markets, and cash pooling.
核心存款在經歷了前幾季的大量流入後略有下降,這主要是由於零售銀行業務在夏季納入了促銷活動和季節性消費模式。另一方面,批發銀行業務資金流入強勁,尤其是在支付和現金管理、金融市場和現金池方面。
Customer balances grew at an annualized rate of 7% in the first nine months of 2025, keeping us well on track to achieve our 4% annual growth target. Fee income also continued upward trend. Year-to-date, fees grew by 12%, and we have raised our full year 2025 growth outlook to more than 10%.
2025 年前九個月,客戶餘額年化成長率為 7%,使我們有望實現 4% 的年成長目標。手續費收入也持續維持上升趨勢。今年迄今為止,費用增加了 12%,我們將 2025 年全年成長預期上調至 10% 以上。
Our fourth quarter rolling average ROE stands at 12.6%, and we have also revised our full year ROE outlook upwards. Finally, we remain committed to supporting clients in our sustainability transitions with sustainable finance volumes up 29% compared to the same period last year.
我們第四季的滾動平均淨資產收益率為 12.6%,我們也上調了全年淨資產收益率預期。最後,我們將持續致力於支援客戶的永續發展轉型,永續金融業務量比去年同期成長了 29%。
Now let's move to the next slide to discuss what this growth means for our capital generation. On slide 3, we show how our continued commercial growth, further income diversification and proactive cost measures have delivered strong capital generation. Over the past four quarters, we have delivered EUR6 billion of net profit, which contributed an additional 2 percentage points to our CET1 ratio in line with the two prior years.
現在讓我們進入下一張投影片,討論這種成長對我們的資本累積意味著什麼。在第 3 張投影片中,我們展示了我們持續的商業成長、進一步的收入多元化和積極的成本控制措施如何帶來了強勁的資本創造。過去四個季度,我們實現了 60 億歐元的淨利潤,這使我們的 CET1 比率提高了 2 個百分點,與前兩年持平。
This performance has enabled us to offer an attractive and sustainable dividend with an ordinary cash dividend yield of nearly 6% in the last 12 months, and part of the capital we generated was reinvested to support profitable growth across both our business lines. And finally, thanks to our strong capital generation, we have been able to announce and execute additional distributions amounted to EUR4.5 billion over the last 12 months and EUR12.5 billion over the last three years.
這項業績使我們能夠提供具有吸引力的可持續股息,過去 12 個月的普通現金股息收益率接近 6%,並且我們產生的部分資本被再投資,以支持我們兩大業務線的盈利增長。最後,由於我們強大的資本累積能力,我們得以在過去 12 個月內宣布並執行總額達 45 億歐元的額外分紅,並在過去三年內宣布並執行總額達 125 億歐元的額外分紅。
Then I'll move to slide 4, where we summarize the total distributions to shareholders, building on what I just mentioned. In our policy, we have consistently paid cash dividends and we have been executing share buybacks for several years. And these actions have delivered a highly attractive yield, while our share price has risen significantly.
接下來,我將轉到第 4 張投影片,在此投影片中,我們將總結向股東分配的總金額,並在此基礎上繼續闡述我剛才提到的內容。根據我們的政策,我們一直派發現金股息,並且多年來一直在進行股票回購。這些措施帶來了極具吸引力的收益,同時我們的股價也大幅上漲。
The EUR2 billion share buyback program, which started in May this year was concluded earlier this week. And today, we are announcing an additional EUR1.6 billion distribution. All that amount, EUR1.1 billion will be returned in the form of a new share buyback, which will have a lasting positive impact on both earnings and dividends per share.
今年5月啟動的20億歐元股票回購計畫已於本週稍早結束。今天,我們宣布追加16億歐元的分配。這筆總額為 11 億歐元的資金將以新股回購的形式返還,這將對每股收益和股息產生持久的正面影響。
And in addition, we will pay a cash dividend of EUR500 million in January 2026, helping us to meet the expected cash flow for the year. Looking ahead, we remain committed to delivering strong shareholder returns and we will provide you an update with our first quarter 2026 results.
此外,我們將在 2026 年 1 月派發 5 億歐元的現金股息,以幫助我們實現當年的預期現金流。展望未來,我們將繼續致力於為股東帶來豐厚的回報,並將於 2026 年第一季業績公佈時向您匯報最新情況。
Now let's move to slide 5, where I will explain the rationale behind updating our CET1 ratio target. So here on page 5, our expected fully loaded CET1 MDA has risen over a year from 10.5% in 2020 to around 11.2%, primarily due to regulatory changes.
現在我們來看第 5 張投影片,我將在其中解釋我們更新 CET1 比率目標的理由。因此,在第 5 頁,我們預期的完全加載的 CET1 MDA 在一年內從 2020 年的 10.5% 上升到 11.2% 左右,這主要是由於監管變化。
And consequently, we have revised our capital target and will now measure our CET1 ratio at around 13%. And this target gives us a buffer of about 180 basis points above the MDA threshold, which we consider appropriate given the resilience of our business model and the fact that a significant portion of the MDA over 1 percentage point is attributable to countercyclical buffers. Any CET1 capital above 13% will be treated as excess and factored into our future capital planning as evidenced by the additional distribution that we announced today.
因此,我們修改了資本目標,現在將 CET1 比率設定在 13% 左右。這個目標使我們在 MDA 閾值之上擁有約 180 個基點的緩衝,考慮到我們業務模式的韌性以及 MDA 超過 1 個百分點的很大一部分歸因於逆週期緩衝,我們認為這是合適的。超過 13% 的任何 CET1 資本都將被視為超額資本,並納入我們未來的資本規劃,正如我們今天宣布的額外分配所證明的那樣。
And in the previous slides, I'm now on slide 6, I outlined how we have deployed excess and newly generated capital over the past years, delivering strong shareholder returns. And although we are no longer in a position of excess capital, we remain firmly focused on generating strong capital going forward, and our allocation priorities are well defined. First, we will maintain an attractive shareholder return supported by our 50% dividend payout policy.
在前幾張投影片中(我現在展示的是第 6 張投影片),我概述了過去幾年我們如何部署剩餘和新產生的資本,從而為股東帶來強勁的回報。儘管我們不再擁有過剩資本,但我們仍堅定地致力於在未來創造強勁的資本,並且我們的資產配置重點也已明確。首先,我們將透過 50% 的股利支付政策,維持對股東具有吸引力的回報。
Second, we will continue to invest in value-accretive growth, further diversifying income streams, expanding the loan book in a capital-efficient way, and considering M&A opportunities that meet our strict criteria. And these investments will help us to accelerate growth and enhance earnings potential as the return on new business is higher than a return on share buyback. And finally, we will return any capital structurally above our CET1 target to shareholders.
其次,我們將繼續投資於增值成長,進一步實現收入來源多元化,以資本高效的方式擴大貸款規模,並考慮符合我們嚴格標準的併購機會。這些投資將有助於我們加速成長並提高獲利潛力,因為新業務的回報高於股票回購的回報。最後,我們將把超出我們CET1目標的任何結構性資本返還給股東。
Moving to slide 8, where we present our improved outlook for 2025. So far this year, we have added nearly 700,000 mobile primary customers and remain on track to achieve our annual growth target of 1 million in 2025. We have raised our expectation for fee growth and now anticipate fees to come in more than 10% higher than last year. And as a result, we have also increased our outlook for total income, which we now expect to reach around EUR22.8 billion this year.
接下來是第 8 張投影片,我們在此展示我們對 2025 年的改進展望。今年到目前為止,我們新增了近 70 萬名行動主用戶,並預計在 2025 年實現 100 萬的年度成長目標。我們提高了對費用成長的預期,現在預計費用將比去年增加 10% 以上。因此,我們也提高了對總收入的預期,目前預計今年總收入將達到約 228 億歐元。
Prudent expense management remains a key priority. We continue to take proactive measures to operate efficiently while selectively investing for growth. And despite additional incidental expenses this quarter, we continue guiding total costs towards the lower end of the EUR12.5 billion to EUR12.7 billion range.
審慎的費用管理仍是重中之重。我們將繼續採取積極措施提高營運效率,同時選擇性地進行成長投資。儘管本季出現了一些額外的附帶支出,但我們仍預計總成本將維持在 125 億歐元至 127 億歐元區間的下限。
As explained earlier, our CET1 target has been updated to around 13%. And given our improved outlook for income and disciplined approach on costs, we have also raised our ROE expectation for this year to more than 12.5%.
如前所述,我們的 CET1 目標已更新為 13% 左右。鑑於我們對收入前景的改善以及對成本的嚴格把控,我們也提高了今年的淨資產收益率預期,超過 12.5%。
We will share our outlook for 2026 and revisit our 2027 targets with the fourth quarter results. And now I'll hand over to Tanate, who will walk you through the third quarter financial results in more detail starting on slide 10. Tanate?
我們將在公佈第四季度業績時分享我們對 2026 年的展望,並重新審視我們 2027 年的目標。現在我將把麥克風交給 Tanate,她將從第 10 張投影片開始,更詳細地向大家介紹第三季的財務表現。塔納特?
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Thank you, Steven. Yes, on slide 10 shows the development of total income, which has increased further this quarter and was close to the record level we achieved one year ago. Commercial NII rose by a strong performance in Wholesale Banking Lending and the conclusion of our promotional campaign -- savings campaign in Retail Banking Germany. These factors more than offset the impact of lower average ECB deposit facility rate and a stronger euro.
謝謝你,史蒂文。是的,第 10 張投影片顯示了總收入的發展情況,本季總收入進一步成長,接近一年前創下的歷史最高水準。商業淨利息收入成長,主要得益於批發銀行貸款業務的強勁表現以及我們在德國零售銀行業務中開展的促銷活動——儲蓄活動的圓滿結束。這些因素足以抵消歐洲央行存款便利利率平均下降和歐元走強的影響。
Fee income continues its upward trend, growing by 15% year-on-year. Most of this growth is structural, which is why we have raised our full year expectations. Finally, all other income, which includes other NII, investment income and other income was supported by continued strong results in financial market and treasury as well as the final dividend payment from our equity stake in Bank of Beijing.
手續費收入持續維持上升趨勢,較去年同期成長 15%。這種增長大部分是結構性的,因此我們提高了全年預期。最後,所有其他收入,包括其他淨利息收入、投資收入和其他收入,都得益於金融市場和國庫業務的持續強勁業績,以及我們從北京銀行股權中獲得的最終股息支付。
Let's discuss slide 11, where we show the development of our customer balances. We delivered another quarter of strong loan growth across both our Retail and Wholesale Banking. Net core lending increased by EUR14.2 billion. Retail contributed EUR8.6 billion of that, driven by continued growth in mortgages and increasing consumer lending portfolio, primarily in Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands. Wholesale Banking Lending also posted strong growth as a relatively large number of deals originated early -- in earlier quarters were converted in the third quarter.
讓我們來討論第 11 張投影片,其中展示了我們客戶餘額的變化。我們的零售銀行和批發銀行業務連續第二個季度實現了強勁的貸款成長。淨核心貸款增加了142億歐元。零售業貢獻了其中的 86 億歐元,這主要得益於抵押貸款的持續成長和消費貸款組合的增加,尤其是在德國、波蘭和荷蘭。批發銀行貸款業務也實現了強勁增長,因為相當多的交易在前幾個季度產生,並在第三季度轉化為實際貸款。
On the liability side, core deposits declined by around EUR200 million after significant inflows in prior quarters. The decline was largely attributable to outflows in Germany and Belgium after the conclusion of promotional savings campaign. Wholesale Banking posted a strong inflow, reflecting increased deposit volume in payment and cash management area, financial market and the cash pooling business.
在負債方面,在前幾個季度出現大量資金流入後,核心存款減少了約 2 億歐元。這一下降主要是由於德國和比利時在促銷儲蓄活動結束後資金外流造成的。批發銀行業務資金流入強勁,反映出支付和現金管理領域、金融市場和現金池業務的存款量增加。
On slide 12, you can see that commercial NII grew quarter-on-quarter. That was -- this increase is particularly strong in Retail Germany's liability NII after the end of the bonus rate for fresh money from a promotional campaign. This was also the main driver behind the 1 basis point improvement in liability margin.
從第 12 張投影片可以看出,商業 NII 則是環比成長。也就是說,在促銷活動帶來的新資金獎勵利率結束後,德國零售業負債淨利息收入的成長尤其顯著。這也是負債利潤率提高 1 個基點的主要原因。
Lending NII also in Wholesale Banking Lending, the Lending margin remained stable as the growth in Wholesale Banking Lending offset the impact of continued growth of our residential mortgage portfolio, which deliver higher return on equity but lower average margin.
在批發銀行貸款業務中,貸款淨利息收入也保持穩定,因為批發銀行貸款業務的成長抵消了房屋抵押貸款組合持續成長的影響,而房屋抵押貸款組合雖然能帶來更高的股本回報率,但平均利潤率較低。
For full year 2025, our outlook liability margin and lending margin is unchanged at around 100 basis points and around 125 basis points, respectively. We expect commercial NII to come in between EUR15.2 billion and EUR15.3 billion. It is worth noting that the higher-than-expected NII growth in the third quarter was partly driven by a large number of transactions in the Wholesale Bank, which has been in the pipeline for an extended period of time.
2025 年全年,我們的負債利差和貸款利差預期分別維持在 100 個基點左右和 125 個基點左右。我們預計商業淨利息收入將在 152 億歐元至 153 億歐元之間。值得注意的是,第三季淨利息收入成長高於預期,部分原因是批發銀行的大量交易,這些交易已經醞釀了很長時間。
Turning to slide 13. Fee growth remained strong with a 15% increase year-on-year, driven by structural revenue drivers across both Retail and Wholesale Banking. In Retail Banking, growth was supported by a continued rise in mobile primary customer, which boosted daily banking fees.
翻到第13張幻燈片。手續費成長依然強勁,年增 15%,這主要得益於零售銀行和批發銀行業務的結構性收入成長。在零售銀行業務方面,行動主客戶的持續成長支撐了業務成長,從而推高了每日銀行手續費。
Investment products had a strong quarter, reflecting an increase in the number of investment accounts and higher asset under management. Wholesale Banking delivered a quarterly record fee income of EUR383 million, driven by strong performance in lending, supported by a greater number of lead roles, increased loan underwriting activities and higher lending volume. Given the strong performance in the first nine months of this year, we are confident that we can grow our fee income by more than 10% in 2025.
投資產品本季表現強勁,反映投資帳戶數量增加及管理資產規模擴大。批發銀行業務季度手續費收入創歷史新高,達到 3.83 億歐元,這主要得益於貸款業務的強勁表現,以及更多牽頭角色、更多貸款承銷活動和更高貸款量的支撐。鑑於今年前九個月的強勁表現,我們有信心在 2025 年實現費用收入成長超過 10%。
On slide 14, we show the development of all other income. Income from financial market is mostly driven by client activity. We continue to support our clients through volatile market condition, mostly with FX and interest rate management. Income from our financial stakes this quarter included a final dividend from our stake in Bank of Beijing, while other income also benefited from a gain on sale.
第 14 張投影片展示了所有其他收入的發展。金融市場收入主要由客戶活動驅動。我們將繼續在市場波動的情況下為客戶提供支持,主要透過外匯和利率管理。本季我們從金融投資中獲得的收入包括來自我們在北京銀行股份的最終股息,而其他收入也受益於出售收益。
Now on to slide 15. Our expenses excluding regulatory costs and incidental items rose less than 3% year-on-year, reflecting our prudent approach. The increase was largely reflecting wage inflation and our ongoing investment in business growth and scalability.
現在來看第15張投影片。扣除監管成本和雜項支出後,我們的費用年增不到 3%,這反映了我們審慎的做法。此次成長主要反映了薪資上漲以及我們對業務成長和規模化能力的持續投資。
On the growth side, we continue investing in our customer acquisition and product development, including expanding our offer for new customer segments. Another good example is business banking, where we broaden our product suite and make it easier to digitally onboard customer.
在成長方面,我們將繼續投資於客戶獲取和產品開發,包括擴大我們面向新客戶群的產品和服務。另一個很好的例子是企業銀行業務,我們擴大了產品組合,使客戶更容易透過數位化方式註冊。
In terms of scalability, we focus on enhancing and strengthening our tech platform. At the same time, we are seeing benefits from operational efficiencies, which help offset part of the cost increase. We remain committed to digitizing our services to further strengthen our operational leverage going forward. We're actively integrating generative AI capabilities through our organization. Our GenAI chatbot is now live in six markets, providing improved customer support.
在可擴展性方面,我們專注於增強和加強我們的技術平台。同時,營運效率的提高也帶來了收益,這有助於抵銷部分成本增加。我們將繼續致力於服務數位化,以進一步增強我們未來的營運優勢。我們正在積極地將生成式人工智慧能力整合到我們的組織中。我們的 GenAI 聊天機器人現已在六個市場上線,提供更優質的客戶支援。
And in consumer finance, we use AI to assist applications and process loan applications automatically. Incidental expenses mostly related to restructuring provisions booking, which are expected to result in EUR30 million in annualized cost savings once fully implemented.
在消費金融領域,我們利用人工智慧來輔助申請,並自動處理貸款申請。附帶費用主要與重組準備金提列有關,預計全面實施後每年可節省 3,000 萬歐元成本。
We still expect total expenses to finish at the lower end of the previously guided range. The outlook includes incidental items recorded in the first nine months whereby continued focus on operational efficiencies will lead to some incidental costs in the fourth quarter.
我們仍然預計總支出將落在先前預期範圍的下限。該展望包括前九個月記錄的偶發性項目,其中對營運效率的持續關注將在第四季度導致一些偶發性成本。
Now let's move on to risk costs on the next slide. Total risk costs were EUR326 million this quarter, equivalent to 19 basis points of average customer lending, which is below our through-the-cycle average and reflect the quality of our loan growth. Net addition to Stage 3 provision amount to EUR361 million, mainly due to collective provisioning in Retail Banking and a number of newly defaulted files in Wholesale Banking.
接下來,我們將在下一張投影片上討論風險成本。本季總風險成本為 3.26 億歐元,相當於平均客戶貸款額的 19 個基點,低於我們整個週期的平均水平,反映了我們貸款成長的品質。第三階段撥備淨增加額為 3.61 億歐元,主要原因是零售銀行業務的集體撥備以及批發銀行業務中一些新出現的違約文件。
The Stage 3 ratio remains stable. Stage 1 and Stage 2 risk cost show a net release of EUR35 million, mostly reflecting portfolio movements. Overall, we remain confident in the strength and quality of our loan growth.
第三階段比例保持穩定。第一階段和第二階段風險成本顯示淨釋放 3500 萬歐元,主要反映了投資組合的變動。總體而言,我們對貸款成長的實力和品質仍然充滿信心。
On slide 17, we show development of our core Tier 1 ratio, which increased compared to last quarter. Core Tier 1 capital increase on the back of strong capital generation, partly offset by dividend reserving and a lower market value of our stake in Bank of Beijing. The total risk-weighted assets broadly stable.
在第 17 張投影片中,我們展示了我們核心一級資本比率的發展情況,與上個季度相比有所增加。核心一級資本增加得益於強勁的資本生成,但部分被股息儲備和我們在北京銀行的股份市值下降所抵消。風險加權資產總額整體維持穩定。
Credit risk-weighted assets, excluding FX impact increased by EUR2.2 billion, mainly due to volume growth. This was partly offset by a change in the profile of the loan book, equity revaluations and various other effects. Operational risk-weighted assets remained flat while market risk-weighted assets decreased by EUR1.7 billion. The announced additional distribution of EUR1.6 billion.
不計匯率影響,信用風險加權資產增加了 22 億歐元,主要原因是交易量成長。貸款組合結構的變化、股權重估以及其他各種因素在一定程度上抵消了上述影響。操作風險加權資產保持不變,而市場風險加權資產減少了 17 億歐元。宣布追加分配16億歐元。
We have a pro forma impact of 48 basis points on the Core Tier 1 ratio, bringing it more in line with our updated targets. Now I'll hand back to Steven to wrap up today's presentation.
我們對核心一級資本充足率產生了 48 個基點的調整,使其更符合我們更新後的目標。現在我將把麥克風交還給史蒂文,讓他來總結今天的演講。
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Tanate. And before we move to Q&A, let me recap the key takeaways from today's presentation. We delivered another strong quarter, maintaining solid commercial momentum that is fully aligned with our growth strategy and the sustained performance translated into a robust capital generation, enabling attractive shareholder returns while continuing to selectively invest in our business.
謝謝,塔納特。在進入問答環節之前,讓我先總結一下今天演講的要點。我們又迎來了一個強勁的季度,保持了穩健的商業勢頭,這與我們的成長策略完全一致,持續的業績轉化為強勁的資本創造,從而為股東帶來了可觀的回報,同時我們繼續有選擇地投資於我們的業務。
Today, we announced a EUR1.6 billion distribution, bringing our CET1 ratio in line with our updated target. Going forward, we remain committed to deploying capital to fuel growth and further enhance returns.
今天,我們宣布分配 16 億歐元,使我們的 CET1 比率符合我們更新後的目標。展望未來,我們將繼續致力於投入資金以促進成長並進一步提高回報。
And finally, we have improved our outlook for 2025, expecting higher fees, stronger total income, and a return on equity above 12.5%. And with that, I would like to open the floor for Q&A. Operator, over to you.
最後,我們提高了對 2025 年的展望,預計費用將更高,總收入將更強,股本回報率將超過 12.5%。接下來,我將開放問答環節。操作員,請接通。
Operator
Operator
Delphine Lee.
德爾菲娜李。
Delphine Lee - Analyst
Delphine Lee - Analyst
My first one is on capital. Just wondering, as you highlighted in your slides, your CET1 requirements have been going up quite a bit. Do you think we are entering like a phase of stabilization from here? Or could there be more pressure?
我的第一篇是關於資本的。我只是想問一下,正如你在幻燈片中所強調的那樣,你們的 CET1 要求已經大幅提高了。你認為我們即將進入一個穩定階段嗎?還是還有更大的壓力?
And on the other hand, do you expect anything on -- is there any hope of that requirement going down maybe on mortgage flow? Is there anything like that, just so we have better visibility on how you run your CET1?
另一方面,您是否預期——或者說,抵押貸款流量方面,這項要求是否有可能下降?有沒有類似的方式,以便我們更了解你們是如何運行 CET1 的?
And then just on NII and deposits, more generally speaking, the retail deposit options were quite significant this quarter, which there has been some seasonality. Was just wondering a little bit what you're seeing so far in the quarter. And if the trends that you've seen in Q3 in terms of the strength in Wholesale Banking or -- and the liability margin, slight improvement, is there anything that has been confirmed for Q4 so far?
然後就淨利息收入和存款而言,更普遍地說,本季零售存款選項相當重要,這其中存在一些季節性因素。我只是想了解一下你目前為止在本季的情況。如果第三季您在批發銀行業務的強勁表現或負債率略有改善方面看到的趨勢,那麼到目前為止,第四季度是否有任何已得到證實的情況?
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you very much, Delphine. And on capital, yeah, we currently do not see additional pressure, very strong on capital. So all the countercyclical buffers and other elements that we could see that could potentially have come and that we have factored into our capital targets.
非常感謝你,德爾菲娜。至於資本方面,是的,我們目前沒有看到額外的壓力,資本壓力非常強勁。因此,所有我們預見的逆週期緩衝和其他可能出現的因素,我們都已納入了我們的資本目標。
Of course, we continue to talk to supervisors about avoiding duplication or gold plating between different supervisors in different markets. And of course, we also talk about the mortgage floor that could come in, but only in 2032. So that's a long time away. But we'll also talk about that to see if that can be removed, but those discussions are ongoing.
當然,我們也會繼續與主管們溝通,避免不同市場的不同主管之間出現重複勞動或過度監管的情況。當然,我們也會討論可能推出的抵押貸款最低利率,但那要等到 2032 年才會實現。那還早著呢。但我們也會討論是否可以刪除它,但這些討論仍在進行中。
Then on deposits, yes, the outflows are -- there was an outflow of about EUR7 billion in Retail and an inflow of about EUR7 billion in Wholesale. So our deposits are approximately flat and EUR200 million-minus. What we can see is that these deposit outflows for Retail came from a marketing campaign predominantly in Germany, which ended and that always leads to part of outflows of the marketing campaign money that we got in. So that is that effect.
至於存款方面,是的,資金流出——零售業資金流出約 70 億歐元,批發業資金流入約 70 億歐元。因此,我們的存款大致持平,並減少 2 億歐元。我們可以看到,零售業的這些存款流出主要來自德國的一項行銷活動,該活動已經結束,這總是會導致我們投入的部分行銷活動資金流出。這就是它的影響。
Also, there was a third quarter effect, which is a seasonal effect, which then is the end of the holidays, and during the holidays, people spend more. So typically, with a higher spending pattern at the start of the third quarter, you also see deposits there coming down. So that's typically for this quarter.
此外,還有第三季效應,這是一種季節性效應,因為第三季正值假期結束,而假期期間人們的消費會增加。因此,通常情況下,第三季初的消費模式較高,而存款則相應下降。所以這通常是本季的情況。
That is not a pattern that we would expect in the fourth quarter. And to date, if you look at the total deposits, we have an annualized growth in the first nine months of 6%. So we're happy with our deposit inflows during the year.
這並非我們預期在第四季會出現的模式。截至目前,如果查看存款總額,前九個月的年化成長率為 6%。因此,我們對今年的存款流入量感到滿意。
Operator
Operator
Namita Samtani, Barclays.
Namita Samtani,巴克萊銀行。
Namita Samtani - Analyst
Namita Samtani - Analyst
My first question is, how do you expect your lending margins to grow from 125 bps today to the 125 to 130 bps guidance over 2026 to 2027, given there's a lot of little private credit competition and many banks offering competitive pricing, especially in wholesale. So any thoughts there would be much appreciated.
我的第一個問題是,鑑於私人信貸競爭不激烈,而且許多銀行提供有競爭力的價格,尤其是在批發領域,您預計您的貸款利潤率將如何從目前的 125 個基點增長到 2026 年至 2027 年的 125 至 130 個基點的目標水平?所以,任何想法都將不勝感激。
And secondly, I saw an article on Bloomberg that ING estimated that around 950 positions are at risk in the Netherlands by the end of 2026 as artificial intelligence was rolled out. I know it was just a forecast given to the country's employee insurance agency, but I just wondered why you aren't doing this AI initiative in other countries. For example, the cost income in the Netherlands looks decent compared to Belgium and Australia Retail, where it's 60% to 70%, which looks quite poor.
其次,我在彭博社上看到一篇文章,ING 估計,隨著人工智慧的推廣,到 2026 年底,荷蘭將有大約 950 個職位面臨風險。我知道這只是對國家僱員保險機構提供的預測,但我只是好奇為什麼你們不在其他國家開展這項人工智慧計畫。例如,與比利時和澳洲的零售業相比,荷蘭的成本收入看起來還不錯,比利時和澳洲的零售業成本收入比為 60% 至 70%,這看起來相當糟糕。
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Namita. I'll do the question on the 950 positions, and Tanate will talk about the lending margin. As a matter of fact, this is an announcement that we have to do from the collective -- with a collective announcement. And so this is an estimate that we then officially post with the labor insurance agency as a current estimate of how many jobs will be affected in this country.
謝謝你,娜米塔。我將回答有關 950 個職位的問題,Tanate 將討論貸款保證金的問題。事實上,這是我們必須集體發布的公告——以集體公告的形式。因此,我們會將此估計值正式提交給勞動保險機構,作為目前對該國將有多少工作受到影響的估計。
Now the jobs that are affected are part of it is in Wholesale Banking, as we announced earlier, and parts, it's in our processes such as less manual or personnel work in contact centers and or more digitalization in lending and consumer lending processes.
受影響的工作部分來自批發銀行業務,正如我們之前宣布的那樣;另一部分則來自我們的流程,例如呼叫中心的人工或人員工作減少,以及貸款和消費貸款流程的數位化程度提高。
By the way, we do not only do this in the Netherlands, we do this everywhere around the world, so the GenAI chatbot has been rolled out or being rolled out in six countries already as an example. But it's just the announcement that we are compulsory to make in this country. It has led to the announcement that is not because we're only doing this in this country, but this pertains employees in this country.
順便說一句,我們不僅在荷蘭這樣做,我們在世界各地都這樣做,例如,GenAI 聊天機器人已經在六個國家推出或正在推出。但這只是我們在這個國家必須發佈的公告。這導致我們宣布,這不僅是因為我們只在這個國家這樣做,而是因為這關係到這個國家的員工。
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Namita, just on the margin, We have seen margin compression down to 125 because of a greater share of mortgage financing in our mix. We do expect that that will normalize going forward. Also, that's a factor that the funding profile of our mortgage-backed book has cost margin compression, which we expect that to subside over the next few periods and that we do expect return to growth in the Wholesale Banking loan growth, which comes with a higher margin. That's why we do expect that over time, our lending margin will range between 125 and 130 bps.
Namita,就目前而言,由於抵押貸款融資在我們業務組合中所佔比例增加,我們的利潤率已壓縮至 125%。我們預計這種情況未來會逐漸正常化。此外,我們抵押貸款支持證券的融資結構存在成本利潤率壓縮的因素,我們預計這種情況將在未來幾個時期內有所緩解,並且我們預計批發銀行貸款增長將恢復增長,而批發銀行貸款的利潤率更高。因此,我們預計隨著時間的推移,我們的貸款利差將在 125 至 130 個基點之間。
Operator
Operator
Tarik El Mejjad, Bank of America.
梅賈德 (Tarik El Mejjad),美國銀行。
Tarik El Mejjad - Analyst
Tarik El Mejjad - Analyst
Two questions from my side. First of all, I would like to come back on the tech investments and AI. I mean, you've been one among those banks that had some AI/ML issues a few years ago as you had to ramp up your FTEs in the KYC and client boarding functions. So have you invested in the meantime in AI in that area? And could that actually -- I know you've already run down a lot of these costs, but is this something you've been investing in in parallel?
我有兩個問題。首先,我想再談談科技投資和人工智慧。我的意思是,幾年前,你們銀行也曾遇到一些人工智慧/機器學習的問題,因為你們必須增加 KYC 和客戶註冊部門的全職員工。那麼,在此期間,您是否已在該領域的人工智慧方面進行了投資?我知道你們已經削減了很多成本,但你們是否也在同步投資這方面呢?
And also in terms of embedded AI in products, where you are and what's your thinking is in the future? And then the second question is on capital redeployment. Thanks Steven, you've been very clear about the outlook for where the capital generation goes. That's very, very clear. But in terms of consolidation and M&A, you've been very vocal and transparent about it. What's your -- how your thinking evolved in this current rate environment and where your focus will go?
另外,就產品中嵌入式人工智慧而言,您目前處於什麼階段?您對未來有何展望?第二個問題是關於資本重新部署。謝謝史蒂文,你對資本產生的方向前景闡述得非常清楚。這一點非常非常清楚。但在整合與併購方面,你一直非常直言不諱,而且非常透明。在當前的利率環境下,您的想法是如何演變的?您的關注重點又將放在哪裡?
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Tarik. Yes, first of all, tech AI investments. I think there are five main areas that we currently are deploying or starting to deploy gen AI, and we already work with AI for the last 10 years. But GenAI, which is, let's say, AI on steroids, if you will, there was a clear focus that is coding in the technology space that is lending, that is hyper-personalized marketing, that is contact centers and that is KYC.
謝謝你,塔里克。首先,是科技人工智慧投資。我認為我們目前正在或開始部署人工智慧的五個主要領域,而且我們已經從事人工智慧相關工作 10 年了。但 GenAI,我們可以說它是人工智慧的加強版,它有一個明確的重點,那就是技術領域的編碼,包括貸款、高度個人化的行銷、聯絡中心和 KYC。
So for sure, we are investing in digitalizing KYC and also get this supported with AI and GenAI. And that will, of course, also have an impact on our processes and could also indeed have an impact on how we work with our staff.
所以,我們肯定會投資 KYC 的數位化,並利用人工智慧和 GenAI 來支援這項工作。當然,這也將對我們的流程產生影響,並且確實可能會對我們與員工的合作方式產生影響。
So yeah, that could be and -- it is an interesting part of the business where we can use digitalization much more than we did that in the past. When it comes to capital deployment and our thinking on M&A, yeah, it has not changed. I think that what we want to do is we want to make more impact and be more relevant in the markets in which we operate. That means that we -- there are in markets or market by market, looking at market segments that we currently do not have, for example, business banking or consumer lending or private banking, wealth management type of activities or we look to increase in size, which has scale benefits. Those are the areas in which we are looking. But of course, it has to make sense from an ROE point of view.
是的,這有可能——這是業務中一個有趣的部分,我們可以比過去更多地利用數位化。至於資本部署和我們對併購的看法,是的,這一點並沒有改變。我認為我們想要做的,是在我們營運的市場中產生更大的影響力,並變得更具相關性。這意味著我們——在各個市場或各個市場中,我們會關注我們目前還沒有的細分市場,例如商業銀行、消費貸款、私人銀行、財富管理等業務,或者我們會尋求擴大規模,從而獲得規模效益。這些都是我們關注的領域。當然,從淨資產收益率的角度來看,這必須合理。
Operator
Operator
Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley.
朱莉婭·米奧托,摩根士丹利。
Giulia Miotto - Analyst
Giulia Miotto - Analyst
I will start with one on NII. Tanate, I think I heard you saying that the guide for the year is EUR15.2 billion to EUR15.3 billion, which somewhat surprised me because I would have thought it was almost a slam dunk that it would be on the EUR15.3 billion side of things because I thought NII is improving in the second half specifically in Q4, you've got the benefit from the end of the Belgian campaign.
我先從NII開始。Tanate,我好像聽到你說今年的業績指引是 152 億歐元到 153 億歐元,這讓我有點驚訝,因為我原本以為業績肯定會達到 153 億歐元,因為我認為淨利息收入在下半年,特別是第四季度會有所改善,而且比利時市場結束也帶來了利好。
And so I think a EUR3.9 billion sort of NII for Q4 was almost in the bag. And I think you'll make some comments around seeing some Wholesale Banking transaction closing in Q3. So I don't know if you can quantify that, if there is any sort of non-recurring things in Q3 that we should keep in mind. So yes, I would welcome your comments on NII for the rest of the year.
所以我認為第四季 39 億歐元的淨利息收入幾乎已經穩操勝券了。我認為您會就第三季一些批發銀行交易的完成發表一些評論。所以我不知道是否可以量化這一點,第三季是否有任何我們應該注意的非經常性事項。所以,是的,我歡迎您在今年餘下的時間裡對NII提出意見。
And then secondly, there have been quite a few incidentals recently on the cost line. And if I look at the past five years, leverage is more or less EUR200 million a year. Is there something that we should think about as recurring? Or not really -- you plan not to do more going forward?
其次,最近成本方面出現了一些意外狀況。如果我回顧過去五年,槓桿率大約是每年 2 億歐元。是否存在我們應該視為反覆出現的因素?或者並非如此——你打算以後不再做更多類似的事情了嗎?
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
All right. I give both questions to Tanate starting with NII.
好的。我把這兩個問題都交給 Tanate,從 NII 開始。
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Yes, Giulia. So I think we do have some tailwind coming our way. The ECB rates later today, we'll see what Christine Lagarde say, but I think we see a bottom to the short rates and a positive view curve. So that's a good tailwind. And we do expect that, that will have a positive impact on our NII, not only for '25 but 2026 as well.
是的,茱莉亞。所以我覺得我們確實會迎來一些順風。歐洲央行利率將於今天稍晚公佈,我們將看看克里斯蒂娜·拉加德會說什麼,但我認為短期利率已經觸底,前景看好。所以這是個不錯的順風。我們預計,這將對我們的淨利息收入產生正面影響,不僅對 2025 年,而且對 2026 年也是如此。
The reason why we gave a tight guidance of EUR15.2 billion to EUR15.3 billion, is the fact that in Q3, we have seen quite a catch-up in the Wholesale Banking NII growth. If you remember in previous quarterly calls, we said that our pipeline in Q1 and Q2 were fairly robust, but customers were not converting them into loans or transactions, and that catch-up has happened in the third quarter in a pretty significant way. So that's why we gave this guidance of between EUR15.2 billion and EUR15.3 billion.
我們給出的業績指引較為嚴格,為 152 億歐元至 153 億歐元,原因是第三季批發銀行業務的淨利息收入成長出現了相當大的追趕。如果你還記得之前的季度電話會議,我們說過,我們在第一季和第二季的業務管道相當強勁,但客戶並沒有將其轉化為貸款或交易,而第三季度這種情況已經得到了相當大的改善。所以,這就是我們給出152億歐元至153億歐元預期值的原因。
Now on restructuring provision. It's been our approach that we don't take big major program restructuring provision over multiple years. But we take provision when we have a clear business case, it is concise and that it can be achieved over 12 to 18 months, and that's our policy going forward. That's why we gave a bit of an outlook to the market that we do expect continued efficiency program and that we do expect to take additional restructuring provision for additional efficiencies in Q4.
現在討論重組條款。我們的做法是,不會在多年內進行大規模的專案重組。但是,當有明確的商業理由,且理由簡潔明了,並能在 12 到 18 個月內實現時,我們才會做出準備,這也是我們今後的政策。因此,我們向市場透露了一些前景,我們預計效率提升計劃將繼續進行,並且我們預計將在第四季度提列額外的重組準備金,以實現進一步的效率提升。
Operator
Operator
Benoit Petrarque, Kepler Cheuvreux.
伯努瓦·佩特拉克,開普勒·舍弗勒。
Benoit Petrarque - Analyst
Benoit Petrarque - Analyst
So first, just as an intro, I just wanted to get your view on the outcome from the Dutch Election. It looks a good -- relatively good outcome. So I just wanted to get your view on that. Now the first question is actually on the ROE target. You've upgraded '25 several times. Yet you've kept '27 ROE unchanged.
首先,作為開場白,我想了解您對荷蘭大選結果的看法。看起來結果不錯——相對來說還不錯。所以我想聽聽你的看法。現在第一個問題其實是關於淨資產收益率目標。你已經多次升級了「25」。然而,你們卻保留了 2027 年的 ROE 不變。
So do you share -- my view at least that there is more confidence in the 14% and potentially upside to the 14%. And just also wanted to check with you if you see the growth momentum currently a bit more pronounced than what you were anticipating back in June '25 at the CMD. So that's number one.
所以你是否也認同我的觀點,人們對 14% 的收益率更有信心,而 14% 的收益率可能還有上漲空間?另外,我還想確認一下,您是否認為目前的成長勢頭比您在 2025 年 6 月的 CMD 會議上預期的要明顯一些。這是第一點。
And number two is on the efficiencies. Again, I think the tech side is looking quite promising. And you just mentioned that the use of digitalization is also much more than in the past. You've put through also restructuring charges in Retail. So I was wondering if all those kind of efficiency gains were embedded in the 3% to 4% OpEx CAGR target back in June '24. Or do you see things a bit accelerating on the efficiency side and the digitalization side?
第二點是關於效率。我再次認為,技術方面看起來很有前景。您剛才也提到,數位應用也比過去更加廣泛。您還在零售業提列了重組費用。所以我想知道,所有這些效率提升是否都包含在 2024 年 6 月設定的 3% 至 4% 的營運支出複合年增長率目標中。或者您看到效率提升和數位化進程正在加速?
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
All right. Thank you for the questions. I will take the question on the elections. Tanate will take the questions on the upside on growth and the efficiency, although I have the feeling that Tanate will say something around we will further update you upon our fourth quarter results 2025, but I'll leave that to him.
好的。謝謝大家的提問。我將回答有關選舉的問題。Tanate 將會回答有關成長和效率方面的問題,儘管我感覺 Tanate 可能會說,我們將在 2025 年第四季業績公佈後再向大家更新,但我還是把這個問題留給他來回答吧。
Regarding the outcome of the elections, yeah, look, I mean -- but I'm saying something that you know as well, obviously, is that stability of a government and of a coalition and thereby, a government that can take long-term decisions is good for society, it's good for the economy, it's good for bank.
關於選舉結果,是的,你看,我的意思是——但我說的也是你們顯然也知道的事情,那就是政府和聯盟的穩定,以及由此產生的能夠做出長期決策的政府,對社會、對經濟、對銀行都有好處。
I think that the meeting of minds in the previous coalition was not there. And I think that this is a new opportunity to create a coalition that is more stable. I can look more long term. And I'm really hoping for that. Secondly, I think also the parties that are a bit bigger, are more pro Europe.
我認為上屆聯合政府內部並沒有共識。我認為這是一個建立更穩定聯盟的新契機。我可以考慮更長遠的事情。我真心希望如此。其次,我認為規模較大的政黨也更傾向支持歐洲一體化。
And I think that from a business point of view, it helps to foster international ties. And therefore, it's also good to set it in a European setting, whereby I really think that people should continue to look at -- continuing and implementing the sales and investment union so that could help here as well. Yeah, and I think thirdly, areas around consistency of policy around simplification, but all sustainability would also help. So yes, I think it is good if we get a government that can create longer-term stability.
我認為從商業角度來看,這有助於促進國際關係。因此,將其置於歐洲背景下也是有益的,我認為人們應該繼續關注——繼續實施銷售和投資聯盟,這可能也能對這裡有所幫助。是的,我認為第三點是政策的一致性,包括簡化政策,但所有永續性方面也會有所幫助。所以,我認為如果我們能有一個可以創造長期穩定的政府,那當然是件好事。
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
And then on guidance from CMD, I think we are more confident about our 2025 and our 2027 ROE target, and as Stephen said, we'll update the longer-term targets later. But I think compared to CMD, volumes are better than we planned, fee growth are better than we planned, and the capital discipline has been strong.
根據 CMD 的指導,我認為我們對 2025 年和 2027 年的 ROE 目標更有信心,正如 Stephen 所說,我們將在以後更新長期目標。但我認為與 CMD 相比,交易量比我們計劃的要好,費用增長比我們計劃的要好,而且資本紀律也很強。
And that's why, given that and given the rates of development, we have basically upgraded in the last two or three quarters our ROE guidance for 2025. But I think I'll leave it to February to give you more formal guidance for the coming period. And then on cost reduction program, yes, these are plans which we have an ambition to deliver, and it's in line with our Capital Markets Day guidance.
正因如此,鑑於上述情況以及發展速度,我們在過去兩三個季度中基本上提高了 2025 年的 ROE 預期。但我認為我會等到二月再給你們接下來一段時間的正式指導。至於成本削減計劃,是的,這些是我們力求實現的計劃,也符合我們在資本市場日上的指導意見。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank.
(操作員指示)本傑明·戈伊,德意志銀行。
Benjamin Goy - Analyst
Benjamin Goy - Analyst
Two questions also from my side. One is a follow-up on the net interest income, particularly implied for Q4. In Q2, you -- when you gave the guidance, you assumed one more rate cut, which hasn't materialized and might not also not happen today. So wondering whether there is a bit more upside baked into your guidance now as compared to August?
我也有兩個問題。其中一項是跟進淨利息收入,特別是第四季的淨利息收入。第二季度,您在給予業績指引時,假設還會再降息一次,但這一假設並未實現,而且今天可能也不會實現。所以我想知道,與8月相比,您目前的業績指引是否包含了更多上漲空間?
And then secondly, on the Wholesale Bank, maybe can you give more color, one, on the loan growth, where is it coming from, countries, which type of product? And then also the newly defaulted files in Wholesale Banking, any trends you can see or industries? Any background would be appreciated.
其次,關於批發銀行,您能否詳細說明一下,第一,貸款成長來自哪裡,來自哪些國家,以及是哪種類型的產品?此外,批發銀行業務中新出現的預設文件,您能否觀察到任何趨勢或行業?提供一些背景資訊將不勝感激。
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
All right. I will talk about the Wholesale Banking growth. Ljiljana will talk about the risk cost in Wholesale Banking. And Tanate will talk about NII. So on the growth in Wholesale Banking, these are two areas.
好的。我將談談批發銀行業務的成長。Ljiljana 將探討批發銀行業務的風險成本。Tanate 將談論 NII。因此,批發銀行業務的成長主要體現在以下兩個方面。
First of all, these are larger underwritings and syndicated loans. So large investments that companies are doing for that they have larger transactions and underwritings that we have been doing with them. We already told you in the previous quarters that the pipelines were strong in Wholesale Banking.
首先,這些都是規模較大的承銷和銀團貸款。因此,這些公司正在進行大規模投資,進行更大規模的交易和承銷,而我們也一直在與他們合作。我們在前幾季已經告訴你們,批發銀行業務的業務管道非常強勁。
So we saw the pipeline is growing, but the conversion into real business was not there. Undoubtedly, that had something to do with the certainty in the market. So at least it's a good signal that companies are now investing.
所以我們看到潛在客戶數量正在成長,但並沒有轉化為實際業務。毫無疑問,這與市場的確定性有關。所以至少這顯示企業現在正在投資,這是一個好兆頭。
Do we -- is that a trend or not? That goes a bit too far for today, but at least it's good that companies are starting to invest and that has led to a larger underwriting business and related lending fees, and that you also see in the fees coming through. And the second area in that economic activity, you see that also in trade financial services.
這算是一種趨勢嗎?對於今天來說,這有點過頭了,但至少公司開始投資是件好事,這導致了更大的承銷業務和相關的貸款費用,這也可以從收取的費用中看出。而該經濟活動的第二個領域,也可以在貿易和金融服務領域看到。
So those have been the areas of growth in Wholesale Banking, leading to around EUR5.5 billion growth in the Wholesale Banking next to the around EUR6.5 billion, EUR7 billion growth in Retail Banking and mortgages. Then we go to risk, yes.
因此,這些領域是批發銀行業務的成長點,批發銀行業務成長了約 55 億歐元,而零售銀行業務和抵押貸款業務的成長約為 65 億歐元至 70 億歐元。然後我們就得承擔風險,沒錯。
Ljiljana Cortan - Chief Risk Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Ljiljana Cortan - Chief Risk Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Yeah, you've seen the third quarter risk cost in general. We're at slightly below the cycle or at the cycle with 19 bps, let me say, and the same is also valued for the Wholesale Bank specifically. So if you're looking at Wholesale Bank, they're slightly below through the cycle average and the majority of provisions correctly comes from the S3 provisions or Stage 3 provisions.
是的,你已經看到了第三季的整體風險成本。可以說,我們目前略低於週期水平,或者說處於週期水平,相差 19 個基點,批發銀行的具體估值也是如此。因此,如果您查看批發銀行,它們的周期平均水平略低於平均水平,並且大部分撥備正確地來自 S3 撥備或第三階段撥備。
However, they are higher than previous quarter, but they are lower and significantly lower if you're looking at the third quarter '24. So if we are looking at the newly defaulted cases, I cannot say I see a specific sector-wide pattern.
不過,它們比上一季要高,但如果你看的是 2024 年第三季度,它們就會低很多,而且低得多。所以,如果我們觀察新近違約的案例,我無法說我看到了某種特定的產業模式。
What we've observed are actually more a result of idiosyncratic events at certain clients rather than systemic observations. Needless to say, we remain vigilant because despite the global economy doing a bit better than we expect, there are still uncertainty around how the economic policy, specifically tariffs and regulation deflux will impact it going forward. So far, so good, I would say.
我們觀察到的現像其實更多是某些客戶的特殊事件造成的,而不是系統性觀察的結果。毋庸置疑,我們仍保持警惕,因為儘管全球經濟表現略好於預期,但經濟政策,特別是關稅和監管放鬆,未來將如何影響全球經濟仍存在不確定性。目前來看,一切順利。
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
And then on rates, Ben, I think the reduction in rates has no material impact on our 2025 financials. And I would refer you to the replication impact of the forward curve that we provided on page 24 that you see that it has a positive impact in '26 and '27, but immaterial for '25.
至於利率問題,本,我認為利率下調對我們 2025 年的財務狀況沒有實質影響。我建議您參考我們在第 24 頁提供的遠期曲線的複製影響,您可以看到它在 2026 年和 2027 年有正面影響,但對 2025 年無關緊要。
Operator
Operator
Shrey, Citi.
Shrey,花旗銀行。
Shrey Srivastava - Analyst
Shrey Srivastava - Analyst
Just on your 13% CET1 ratio target, you're obviously at 12.9% this quarter, pro forma for the distributions you announced. Looking forward as you look to estimates, are you comfortable with being slightly below this number on an interim results basis and sort of what's the leeway within that circa 13% number? Thanks.
僅就您設定的 13% CET1 比率目標而言,根據您宣布的分配情況,本季度您顯然達到了 12.9%。展望未來,在進行預測時,您是否可以接受中期業績略低於這個數字?在這個大約 13% 的數字範圍內,您允許的誤差範圍是多少?謝謝。
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Good spot. So indeed, we are comfortable with dipping into it a little bit. So this is what it shows today. So it is indeed around target, and I don't want to mathematically, every day of the week, be at 13%. It will be around that number.
好地方。所以,我們確實樂意稍微涉足一下。這就是它今天所顯示的情況。所以它確實接近目標,但我並不想在數學上,一周七天都達到 13%。大概就是那個數字左右。
And you can see now that now it is 12.9%, so it's a bit below it. And what we then say is that what we say is that we have a structural capital excess over 13%, then we call it an excess, and then we will look at distribution.
現在可以看到,現在是 12.9%,比目標值略低。然後我們說,如果我們的結構性資本過剩超過 13%,我們稱之為過剩,然後我們將考察分配情況。
Operator
Operator
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs.
克里斯‧哈勒姆,高盛集團。
Chris Hallam - Analyst
Chris Hallam - Analyst
Just to begin with some Q4 housekeeping. The EUR30 million of annualized cost savings you flag on slide 15, when do you expect those to be fully implemented? And then are there any reasons why fees would be down year-over-year in the fourth quarter? Just even if I assume flat, then I'm going to get to a full year number result of 4.6% and 4.4% on fees.
首先,我們來處理一些第四季的日常事務。您在第 15 頁幻燈片中提到的每年 3000 萬歐元的成本節約,預計何時能夠全面實現?那麼,第四季費用較去年同期下降的原因是什麼呢?即使我假設利率保持不變,那麼全年利率將是 4.6%,手續費為 4.4%。
And then second, on the strategy, there's a link obviously between deposit campaigns, the customer retention and then fee growth. Do you get a sense of that connection is that the strategy is becoming more predictable or more lucrative?
其次,從策略角度來看,存款活動、顧客留存率和費用成長之間顯然存在著關聯。你是否感覺到這種連結是,該策略變得越來越可預測或越來越有利可圖?
And maybe on the other hand, if you look at what's coming in Germany, the more demand for borrowing, maybe a greater need across the banking sector for funding and liquidity in that market to kind of react to that borrowing demand, maybe a more competitive deposit landscape. Does that change at all the economics for ING of the deposit campaign pipe strategy in Germany?
另一方面,如果你看看德國即將發生的事情,借貸需求可能會增加,銀行業為了應對這種借貸需求,可能會對市場上的資金和流動性有更大的需求,存款市場競爭可能會更加激烈。這是否會對荷蘭國際集團(ING)在德國的存款推廣活動策略的經濟效益產生任何影響?
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
All right. On the EUR30 million cost savings, that will feed through in 2026 per annum. Then is there any reason for the fees to go down in the fourth quarter? Now that depends on economic activity. So you've seen the growth in our fees has been 75% alpha.
好的。節省的 3000 萬歐元成本將於 2026 年每年反映出來。那麼,第四季費用有下降的理由嗎?這取決於經濟活動。所以你們已經看到,我們的費用增加了 75% 的超額收益。
Of course, we saw a very strong lending fee in Wholesale Banking because of the -- let's say, the execution or the conversion of the pipeline. So yes, there we need to see what is the level of activity, but we remain confident on our fee growth. And that's why we said the fee growth for the year will be higher than 10% rather than at the higher end of the 5% to 10% range.
當然,由於——比如說——管道的執行或轉化,我們在批發銀行業務中看到了非常強勁的貸款費用。所以,是的,我們需要觀察市場活躍度,但我們對費用成長仍然充滿信心。所以,我們才說今年的費用成長將高於 10%,而不是 5% 到 10% 區間的較高值。
And then yeah, just correct me if I understood your question in the wrong way, but you are wondering if there's a connection between growth in lending and in fees, and if there's more competition deposits, that's how I translate your question. Was that your question?
是的,如果我理解錯了你的問題,請糾正我。你是想知道貸款成長和手續費成長之間是否存在聯繫,以及存款競爭是否加劇,我是這麼理解你的問題的。這就是你的問題嗎?
Chris Hallam - Analyst
Chris Hallam - Analyst
Basically. If you think about your deposit has a loss-leading product to generate fee growth in the future. So you've got to think about the deposit cost as the investment of the ROI. So just this deposit costs do climb up. At what point do you think about revisiting the size and the scale of that? Is that an essential campaign?
基本上。如果你考慮一下,你的存款是否意味著未來會推出虧本銷售的產品以帶來費用成長。所以,你必須把定金成本看成是投資報酬率的一部分。所以,光是這部分押金成本就會上漲。您認為在什麼情況下需要重新審視該專案的規模和範圍?這是一項必要的活動嗎?
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Well, I mean -- look, I mean, we see deposits as a -- not as a loss leader. Deposits, in general, make money for us. And that's why you've seen that we started many years ago as ING direct in many countries as a savings and deposit bank.
是的。嗯,我的意思是——你看,我的意思是,我們把存款看作——而不是虧本銷售。一般來說,存款會為我們帶來收益。所以您才會看到,多年前我們以 ING Direct 的名義在許多國家/地區起步,是一家儲蓄和存款銀行。
Now if you talk specifically about the deposits that we are doing in Germany or elsewhere, a campaign can either be aimed at fresh money and that should show a positive payback of in between 6 and 12 months, so that's to existing customers and new money for existing customers. And if you look at campaigns that are aimed at new-to-bank customers, those typically have a payback period of two to three years.
現在,如果您具體談論我們在德國或其他地方進行的存款活動,一項活動可以針對新資金,這應該會在 6 到 12 個月內顯示出積極的回報,所以這是針對現有客戶和現有客戶的新資金。如果你觀察那些針對銀行新客戶的行銷活動,你會發現這些活動的回報期通常為兩到三年。
Now we have these -- done these type of actions and campaigns for decades. They're highly data-driven, which means we can really monitor who do we target at, how much money will stay in the bank, how much business do they do with us afterwards. And we apply continuously these learnings going forward. And of course, these campaigns, with all the data that we have now, will become much more targeted and much more specific, but it's one of the success factors of ING, and we will continue to do so.
現在我們已經採取了這些行動和開展這類活動幾十年了。他們非常注重數據,這意味著我們可以真正監控我們的目標客戶是誰,有多少錢會留在銀行帳戶裡,以及他們之後與我們進行了多少業務往來。我們將繼續運用這些經驗教訓。當然,憑藉我們現在掌握的所有數據,這些行銷活動將會變得更加有針對性、更加具體,但這是 ING 的成功因素之一,我們將繼續這樣做。
Operator
Operator
Anke Reingen, RBC.
Anke Reingen,RBC。
Anke Reingen - Equity Analyst
Anke Reingen - Equity Analyst
Just very small questions. Given that -- do you think you have more potential for cutting your deposit rates given that it seems rates have sort like plateaued? And just on the lending margin, is it basically fair to assume it will decline in Q4, given your comment about the Q3 benefit in Wholesale Banking?
只是些很小的問題。有鑑於此-考慮到利率似乎已經趨於穩定,您認為您還有更大的空間來降低存款利率嗎?就貸款利差而言,考慮到您對批發銀行業務第三季收益的評論,是否可以合理地假設第四季度貸款利差會下降?
And I'm sorry, just a small follow-up question. In terms of your capital update, you said next update is in Q1. But just to confirm, we should assume you keep the same cadence as Q1 or Q3 updates.
不好意思,我還有一個小問題。關於您的資本更新,您曾表示下一次更新將在第一季進行。但為了確認一下,我們應該假設你們保持與第一季或第三季更新相同的節奏。
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So let me confirm that indeed what I indeed meant in my presentation that in terms of capital distribution or how we look at our capital, that will be the six months update intervals that we have. So end of Q1 figures, end of Q3 figures as we have done today. Tanate, lending margins and deposit rates?
是的。所以,讓我確認一下,我在演講中確實指的是,就資本分配或我們如何看待我們的資本而言,我們將每六個月進行一次更新。所以,就像我們今天所做的那樣,公佈第一季末的數據和第三季末的數據。Tanate,貸款利差和存款利率?
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Yes. Deposit rates. I think it's a balance, right? We don't give forward statement on rate cuts or commercial action, but it's a balance between volume growth, competition and profitability. And I think we give our continued outlook that liability margin will remain at around 100 basis points for this year and rise to between 100 to 110 in 2026 and onwards. So that's on rate cuts. And sorry, your second question?
是的。存款利率。我認為這是一種平衡,對吧?我們不會提前公佈降價或商業行動計劃,但這需要在銷售成長、競爭和獲利能力之間取得平衡。我認為,鑑於我們持續的展望,今年負債比率將保持在 100 個基點左右,並在 2026 年及以後上升至 100 至 110 個基點之間。以上是關於降息方面的內容。不好意思,請問您的第二個問題是什麼?
Anke Reingen - Equity Analyst
Anke Reingen - Equity Analyst
It was just fair to assume the lending margin declined in Q4 given your (inaudible) comment.
鑑於你(聽不清楚)的評論,假設第四季度貸款利潤率下降是合理的。
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Got it. I think that really depends on Wholesale Banking and Retail Banking activity, mortgage mix, Wholesale Banking loans. But I think our outlook is that margin on lending will remain flat at around 125 basis points.
知道了。我認為這主要取決於批發銀行和零售銀行的業務活動、抵押貸款組合以及批發銀行貸款情況。但我認為,貸款利率將維持在 125 個基點左右的穩定水準。
Operator
Operator
Farquhar Murray, Autonomous.
法誇爾·默里,自治。
Farquhar Murray - Analyst
Farquhar Murray - Analyst
I had two questions, if I may. Firstly, on the recent Board appointments. So I just wondered if you might flesh out the reasonings behind those, both on Ida Lerner and the actual term. Strategically, I'd expect probably a lot of continuity. But I just wondered if there might be any nuances we should read into those appointments in terms of skill sets for the future.
恕我冒昧,我有兩個問題。首先,關於最近的董事會任命。所以我想知道您是否可以詳細解釋這些理由背後的原因,包括關於艾達·勒納和實際術語的原因。從策略角度來看,我預計會有很大程度的延續性。但我只是想知道,從未來所需的技能組合來看,這些任命是否有什麼細微差別值得我們解讀。
I'm sure Ljiljana might actually have views to express of her own. And then secondly, on the increased CET1 target. Could I ask how those will be cascaded down into the businesses? And in particular, will that be incrementally priced into lending rates?
我相信莉莉亞娜或許也有自己的看法要表達。其次,關於增加 CET1 標靶。請問這些措施將如何逐級傳遞到各個企業?特別是,這些因素是否會逐步反映在貸款利率上?
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. Very good. Nice question about the change of the Board positions. And yes, Ljiljana is sitting next to me. So I will not say anything else than nice words, obviously.
謝謝。非常好。關於董事會成員變動的問題,問得好。是的,莉莉亞娜就坐在我旁邊。所以,我當然只會說好話。
But joking aside, I mean, Ljiljana has done and is doing a fantastic job in the risk domain and has not only good experience in risk, but also good experience in wholesale banking from -- in her previous life and knows organization because she has now been with us for five years.
玩笑歸玩笑,我的意思是,Ljiljana 在風險領域已經並將繼續做得非常出色,她不僅在風險方面擁有豐富的經驗,而且在她之前的職業生涯中,她在批發銀行業務方面也擁有豐富的經驗,並且了解組織架構,因為她已經在我們公司工作了五年。
And I think that with Andrew moving on to the nonexecutive phase of his life, I think I'm very happy with Ljiljana in that post to continuously drive the strategy that we have in Wholesale Banking and also further increase the capital efficiency and the ROE improvements that we want to make in Wholesale Banking.
我認為,隨著 Andrew 進入人生的非執行董事階段,我非常高興 Ljiljana 能夠繼續擔任該職位,推動我們在批發銀行業務領域的策略,並進一步提高我們希望在批發銀行業務領域實現的資本效率和 ROE 提升。
When it comes to Ida, Ida is a very experienced CFO in a European -- a large European bank with also end risk and wholesale banking experience. So very broad-based. And I think she will be an excellent fit also giving external -- outside perspectives to ING to further improve and focus on our cost discipline that we have here in the bank and help me with potential M&A if we come across it. So that's the background of those candidates.
說到 Ida,她是一位經驗豐富的歐洲大型銀行首席財務官,同時在終端風險和批發銀行業務方面也擁有豐富的經驗。覆蓋面非常廣。我認為她非常適合這份工作,她能為 ING 帶來外部視角,進一步改進和專注於我們銀行現有的成本控制,並在我們遇到潛在的併購機會時幫助我。以上就是這些候選人的背景狀況。
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Now on the capital targets, you would have noticed that even in our third quarter results, the divisional ROE is now based on 13% of risk-weighted assets, so that will be communicated more widely to our teams. But I think we also look when we adjust to 13% at many of our Wholesale Banking peers also operate at around 13%. So we don't expect a competitive disadvantage of this new target materially in the Wholesale Bank.
關於資本目標,您可能已經注意到,即使在我們第三季度的業績中,部門淨資產收益率現在也是基於 13% 的風險加權資產計算的,因此我們將更廣泛地向我們的團隊傳達這一信息。但我認為,當我們調整到 13% 時,我們也會注意到,我們許多批發銀行業同業的營運水準也在 13% 左右。因此,我們預期這個新目標不會對批發銀行業務造成實質的競爭劣勢。
Operator
Operator
Matthew Clark, Mediobanca.
馬修克拉克,Mediobanca。
Matthew Clark - Analyst
Matthew Clark - Analyst
A couple of questions on -- well, one question on the two deposit campaigns and your retention rates there. So it looks from the German campaign that you retained less than your normal two-third rule of thumb. Could you confirm that? And then also on the Belgium campaign, can you just confirm whether -- with both of them, you've got the return on investment that you expected that the -- whether there's anything to learn from those campaigns?
關於你們的兩項存款活動以及客戶留存率,我有幾個問題——嗯,其中一個問題是關於這兩項活動的。從德國戰役來看,你似乎沒有遵循通常的三分之二法則。能確認一下嗎?另外,關於比利時的競選活動,您能否確認一下——這兩個活動是否都達到了您預期的投資回報——從這些活動中是否有任何值得學習的地方?
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
On the retention rates where it was lower, we have sometimes said that we typically retain about two-third of the money, and that is not different this time around. And that goes for both campaigns, actually. Also in Belgium, we expect a strong return on investment. We -- there's a good retention and now a number of these customers are turning into primary customers. So actually, that was a very successful campaign.
對於留存率較低的情況,我們有時會說,我們通常會保留大約三分之二的資金,這次也不例外。事實上,兩場競選都是如此。在比利時,我們也預期會獲得豐厚的回報。我們-客戶留存率很高,現在很多客戶都變成了主要客戶。所以實際上,那是一次非常成功的競選活動。
Operator
Operator
Cyril, BNP Paribas.
Cyril,法國巴黎銀行。
Cyril Toutounji - Analyst
Cyril Toutounji - Analyst
I have two, if I may. So one on fee growth. So the second upgrade in guidance we have for this year. So it does look like the momentum is quite strong and resilient. And I'm just wondering what elements of that momentum that we can take and extrapolate maybe into next year?
如果可以的話,我有兩個。所以,關於費用成長,我們先來談談這件事。這是我們今年第二次調高業績預期。所以看來這股勢頭相當強勁且持久。我只是想知道,我們可以將這種勢頭中的哪些要素保留下來,並推斷到明年?
And the second would be on SRTs. I know we have a transaction planned for Q4. And do we have any visibility on any other transaction maybe for 2026?
第二點是關於SRT的。我知道我們計劃在第四季進行一筆交易。我們能否了解2026年可能進行的其他交易?
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
All right. On fee growth. Well, it starts with growth in customers. So if we have more primary mobile customers, then we have more customers that do more with us because primary customers typically are customers that choose ING as their main or one of their main banks. And so we have been growing our customer base, again, with about 200,000 new primary customers.
好的。關於費用增長。這一切都始於客戶數量的成長。因此,如果我們擁有更多主要行動客戶,那麼就會有更多客戶與我們進行更多業務往來,因為主要客戶通常是選擇 ING 作為其主要銀行或主要銀行之一的客戶。因此,我們的客戶群再次擴大,新增了約 20 萬名主要客戶。
If you -- it was 1.1 million, we aim for about 1 million per year. So we're well on track to do this year as well. That's one. Two, we are increasing the activities with our customers. So you have seen that on investment products that more and more customers taking a trade account with ING that is currently around 4.6 million people who trade with ING.
如果──那是110萬,我們的目標是每年大約100萬。所以,我們今年也很有可能實現這個目標。這是其中之一。第二,我們正在增加與客戶的互動。所以您已經看到,在投資產品方面,越來越多的客戶在 ING 開設交易帳戶,目前約有 460 萬人透過 ING 進行交易。
Every quarter -- I say it was 4.4 million and was 4.2 million. So every quarter, we add about 100,000 to 200,000 new customers who trade with ING. And then that's very good. But the better thing is even that we have over 40 million clients. So you can only imagine how big the upside is. And we are now focusing on the segment much more than we did that a few years ago.
每季──我說 440 萬,又說是 420 萬。因此,每季我們都會新增約 10 萬至 20 萬名與 ING 進行交易的新客戶。那非常好。但更棒的是,我們甚至擁有超過 4,000 萬客戶。所以你可以想像,它的潛在收益有多大。我們現在對這個領域的關注度比幾年前高得多。
The same goes for insurance distribution, that is now a separate line in the fee bar chart that you see on the pages, that's also growing steadily, and that's an annuity type of business. So there are -- we broadened up our activities with our customers. And therefore, you see that 75%, if you will, of the fee growth that we see typically is alpha driven, and we are very comfortable with the momentum that we have. That's also why we updated our fee growth for the year and we are very confident to make the 2027 5% -- EUR5 billion target for that year.
保險分銷也是如此,它現在是你在頁面上看到的費用柱狀圖中的一條單獨的線,而且也在穩步增長,這是一種年金類型的業務。所以,我們擴大了與客戶的業務往來。因此,您可以看到,我們通常看到的75%的費用成長是由超額收益驅動的,我們對目前的成長勢頭非常滿意。這也是我們更新了今年的費用成長預期的原因,我們非常有信心實現 2027 年 5% 的成長目標,即 50 億歐元。
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Tanate Phutrakul - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board Banking, Member of the Executive Board
Thank you, Cyril. Just on capital discipline. I think if you look at 2025 Q3, we saw for the Wholesale Bank, despite the volume growth, the capital usage or risk-weighted asset was almost flat, indicating strong capital discipline and capital velocity in the Wholesale Bank. And yes, we are in dialogue with our regulator to get the final approval for our SRT in Q4. We do expect that transaction to be done and it would have a roughly 10% -- sorry, 10 basis point positive impact on our core Tier 1.
謝謝你,西里爾。僅就資本紀律而言。我認為,如果你觀察 2025 年第三季度,我們看到批發銀行儘管交易量增長,但資本使用率或風險加權資產幾乎持平,這表明批發銀行具有很強的資本紀律和資本週轉能力。是的,我們正在與監管機構進行對話,爭取在第四季獲得SRT的最終批准。我們預計該交易將會完成,並且會對我們的核心一級資本產生大約 10% 的積極影響——抱歉,是 10 個基點。
Operator
Operator
Seamus Murphy, Carraighill.
謝默斯墨菲,卡拉吉爾。
Seamus Murphy - Analyst
Seamus Murphy - Analyst
Two questions, please. Can you just briefly talk about the expected evolution of full-time employees? Because when I look at the quarterly numbers, I mean, we're up to 63,000 now, I think, in Q3, that's kind of up 5,500 since the start of this rate cycle, and we're up again significantly year-to-date. I think it's up another 1,500. But I appreciate the question earlier in relation to the savings that could emerge from internal innovation.
請問兩個問題。您能否簡要談談全職員工的預期發展趨勢?因為當我查看季度數據時,我的意思是,我們現在已經達到 63,000,我認為,在第三季度,這比本利率週期開始時增加了 5,500,而且今年迄今為止,我們又大幅增長了。我認為它又上漲了1500。但我很欣賞之前提出的關於內部創新可能帶來的成本節約的問題。
But should we continue to expect the net growth in FTEs into 2027 because just the pace of FTEs kind of is -- continues to surprise, especially with the average salaries around EUR120,000, that would be great. And secondly, just on NII.
但是,如果 FTE 的淨成長持續到 2027 年,而 FTE 的成長速度又持續令人驚訝,尤其是在平均薪資約 12 萬歐元的情況下,那將是件好事。其次,僅就 NII 而言。
At your CMD, you spoke about this 4% to 5% growth in total income of EUR22 billion base, which would have given us about EUR25.5 billion at the top end in '27. And you had guided fee growth, which is obviously stronger and the other income, which we assume could be broadly flat.
在您的 CMD 會議上,您談到了總收入增長 4% 到 5%,基數為 220 億歐元,這將使我們在 2027 年達到約 255 億歐元的最高水平。你們的指導性費用成長明顯更強勁,而其他收入,我們假設可能大致持平。
But when I think about NII, we have a much more beneficial rate curve now versus then. And so I suppose when we think about it, the real kind of issue so far has been the fact that the deposit beta has risen significantly into 2025 in your retail eurozone area. I think it's about 44% still.
但當我想到淨利息收入時,我們現在的利率曲線比以前要有利得多。所以,我認為當我們仔細思考這個問題時,目前真正的問題是,到 2025 年,歐元區零售存款的 beta 值已經顯著上升。我認為現在大概還是44%左右。
So I'm just kind of wondering what -- is there something going on in terms of the dynamic in terms of the deposit pricing that we should think about? I mean, I know you've got 110 basis points of deposit margin in next year -- early into '27.
所以我就想知道──在存款定價的動態方面,是否有我們應該考慮的因素?我的意思是,我知道你們明年(到 2027 年初)的存款保證金有 110 個基點。
But certainly, it seems to be relative to CMD with a much more beneficial rate curve that NII should have been an awful lot higher. And I'm just wondering, does this inflect significantly into '27 to meet kind of like what you would have expected the CMD? Or how should we think about that?
但可以肯定的是,相對於 CMD 而言,由於其利率曲線更為有利,NII 應該要高得多。我只是想知道,這是否會對 '27 產生重大影響,以達到您預期的 CMD 水平?我們該如何看待這個問題?
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Steven Van Rijswijk - Chairman of the Executive Board and the Management Board Banking, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you very much. In terms of the FTEs, yes, what you see, I think, on the press release is the internal number, and so you can never look at in isolation. You have the internal FTEs and you have the external FTEs then you have the work packages. That is how you get to your cost. And so -- but to give you a little bit of indication of that, our total internal and external FTEs in this year have been around flattish and we have more internalized FTEs, and that's why you see that number moving up.
非常感謝。就 FTE 而言,是的,我認為你在新聞稿中看到的是內部數字,所以你永遠不能孤立地看待它。你有內部全職員工 (FTE) 和外部全職員工 (FTE),然後還有工作包。這就是計算成本的方法。所以——但為了讓您稍微了解一下,我們今年的內部和外部全職員工總數基本上持平,而且我們內部的全職員工人數更多,這就是為什麼您看到這個數字上升的原因。
In the end, we look at investing in businesses to grow our business and increase our revenue over RWA with the right return. And we want to do that in a scalable manner so make sure that we have positive jaws, and that's where we are, we want to go to. So that's how we look at costs and how doing these actions and efficiency actions that also Tanate talked about.
最終,我們著眼於投資企業,以發展我們的業務,並透過 RWA 獲得合適的回報來增加我們的收入。我們希望以可擴展的方式實現這一點,所以要確保我們有積極的發展前景,這就是我們目前所處的位置,也是我們想要達到的目標。所以這就是我們看待成本的方式,以及我們如何採取這些行動和提高效率的措施,這也是 Tanate 所談到的。
In terms of your growth in fees and the NII levels that could potentially be higher based on the current rate environment and the growth in our lending, so it's well noted. Thank you for noticing it. We will provide further updates on our outlook as per the fourth quarter figures in early 2026.
就費用成長和淨利息收入水準而言,根據當前的利率環境和貸款成長情況,這些成長可能會更高,這一點已得到充分注意。謝謝你注意到這一點。我們將根據 2026 年初公佈的第四季度數據,提供關於我們前景的進一步更新。
And with that, I would like to thank everybody for joining the call this morning. Good luck and a great day. I wish you, and I hope to speak to you soon again. In any case, we will speak early 2026 on the fourth quarter figures. Thank you very much.
最後,我要感謝今天上午參加電話會議的各位。祝你好運,也祝你今天過得愉快。我祝你一切順利,也希望很快能再次與你交談。無論如何,我們將在 2026 年初公佈第四季的數據。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。