好時 (HSY) 2014 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

My name is Crystal, and I will be your conference operator today.

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Hershey Company's first-quarter 2014 results conference call.

(Operator Instructions)

Mr. Mark Pogharian, please go ahead.

Thank you Crystal.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

Welcome to the Hershey Company's first-quarter 2014 conference call.

J.P. Bilbrey, President and CEO; Dave Tacka, Senior Vice President and CFO; and I will represent Hershey on this morning's call.

We also welcome all of you listening via the webcast.

Let me remind everyone listening that today's conference call may contain statements which are forward-looking.

These statements are based on current expectations, which are subject to risk and uncertainty.

Actual results may vary materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements because of factors such as those listed in this morning's press release and in our 10-K for 2013 filed with the SEC.

If you have not seen the press release, a copy is posted on our corporate website in the Investor Relations section.

Included in the press release is a consolidated balance sheet and a summary of consolidated statements of income prepared with accordance with GAAP.

Within the notes section of the press release, we have provided adjusted pro forma reconciliations of select income statement line items quantitatively reconciled to GAAP.

The Company uses these non-GAAP measures as key metrics for evaluating performance internally.

These non-GAAP measures are not intended to replace the presentation of financial results in accordance with GAAP.

Rather, the Company believes the presentation of earnings, excluding certain items, provides additional information to investors to facilitate the comparison of past and present operations.

As a result, we will discuss 2014 first-quarter results, excluding net pretax charges of $13.4 million, or $0.04 per share diluted, related to the net acquisition and transaction costs primarily associated with Shanghai Golden Monkey, [Project Next Century], and non-service related pension income.

Our discussion of any future projections will also exclude the impact of these net charges.

With that out of the way, me turn the call over to J.P. Bilbrey.

Thanks, Mark, and good morning to everyone on the phone and webcast.

During the first quarter, we made solid progress against the initiatives we discussed earlier this year that gives us confidence Hershey will deliver on its 2014 expectations.

As we stated back in January and at CAGNY, we expected the first quarter to be pressured by year-ago comps and the timing of our 2014 innovation.

However, Q1 top-line results were a bit softer than we anticipated, due to some unexpected anomalies related to US consumer trips within the various classes of trade and weakness in our Latin America business.

Despite Q1 store traffic issues, US net sales increased 3.4% less than our expectations.

Specifically, in channels such as convenience stores and dollar stores, where profitable, impulsive, instant consumable pack types drive sales, consumer trips declined more than we anticipated.

In the traditional food and mass channels, consumer trips were relatively in line with our expectations.

However, the basket included a greater focus on Staples.

Importantly, as we got closer to the end of March and into April, it appears the consumer shopping behavior was returning to normal.

While preliminary, April Nielsen data, for the four weeks ended April 19, indicates a strong sell through for the Easter season and a sequential improvement in non-seasonal candy.

Additionally, net sales declined and Latin America were impacted by the timing of Easter, macroeconomic challenges, and new tax legislation in Mexico on certain food products, and volume elasticity in Brazil due to a price increase.

Overall, total Company Q1 net sales increased 2.4%, driven primarily by volume.

Unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates was a 0.8 point headwind.

Organic net sales growth of 3.2% generated earnings growth that was slightly greater than we anticipated due to the timing of SM&A expenses.

Dave will provide you with additional financial details, so let me provide you with an overview of the business.

Before we get into the specifics of US retail takeaway, recall that in 2014, Easter occurred on April 21, and in 2013, on March 31.

Therefore, the timing of Easter has and will impact Nielsen and IRI data related to the March, April, and May quad periods.

Including Easter's seasonal activity in the year-ago and current period, the candy, mint, and gum -- or CMG category -- declined 2.7% for the 12 weeks ending March 22, 2014 within the xAOC+

C channels.

As a reminder, this is xAOC+

C store data, consisting of food, drug, [mass X], and C-store channels, plus the inclusion of Walmart, partial dollar, club, and military channels.

Gum continues to be a drag on total CMG performance, and excluding it, the chocolate, sweets and refreshment categories declined 2.2%.

Excluding Easter seasonal activity in the current and year-ago period, combined category growth of chocolate, sweets, and refreshment was plus 2.4%.

Given the investments we continue to see in the category in the form of innovation and consumer marketing, including the new product news and related activity we have planned over the remainder of the year, we continue to expect the candy and mint category to increase 3.5% to 4.5% in 2014.

We're particularly excited about our innovation that ramps up in May with the launch of York Minis and Hershey Spreads instant consumable items and the third-quarter lunches of Ice Breakers Cool Blast chews and Brookside Crunchy Clusters.

Given the timing of Easter and our innovation calendar, Hershey's CMG retail takeaway for the 12 weeks ending March 22, declined 3%.

Excluding Easter seasonal activity in both the current and year-ago periods, a better yet still imperfect measure, our retail takeaway was up 1.4%.

Despite the Easter comp, this was less than our expectation and reflects the impact of the lower trips that I referred to earlier.

A better way to assess performance, given seasonal timing and therefore noise in the data, is by looking at absolute market share results.

Hershey's first-quarter market share within the US non-chocolate candy, mint, and gum categories increased.

However, this was offset by a decline in chocolate market share, given the timing of new product launches and related advertising in consumer marketing.

As a result, Hershey's US CMG market share, including Easter seasonal activity in the year-ago and current period, declined 0.1 points.

While results are preliminary, we had a solid Easter, and we'll gain share in this important season.

The first quarter xAOC+

C chocolate category growth, excluding Easter in the current and year-ago period, was 3.6%.

Hershey's xAOC+

C chocolate retail takeaway, excluding Easter, was up 1.2% and resulting in a loss of 1.1 market share points.

Looking at absolute market share results, Kit Kat and Brookside chocolate market share was up in the quarter.

However, this was offset by Hershey franchise softness and Cadbury, which lost 0.5 chocolate share points.

Cadbury is primarily sold during the Easter timeframe, so we would fully expect a reversal of the share loss over the next two quad periods.

Switching to non-chocolate candy, or NCC, in the xAOC+

C channels, the NCC category, including and excluding Easter in the current and year-ago periods, declined 5.2% and 0.2%, respectively.

Hershey's xAOC+

C store NCC business, including and excluding Easter in the current and year-ago periods, declined 4.9% and 2.7%.

As a result, our NCC market share was slightly up, as Lancaster gains offset declines in Jolly Rancher and Twizzlers Bites.

Lancaster is off to a good start, and distribution is tracking to expectations.

Advertising started on February 16 and is driving trial and repeat.

While early, Lancaster results are similar to where Brookside was at this stage of the launch.

While not as large as chocolate and NCC, we continue to do well within gum and mint categories.

Specifically, our Q1 gum and mint retail takeaway within the xAOC+

C universe was up 29% and 6%, respectively.

As a result, our gum market share increased to 1.3 points, and we now have a modest 4.8% share of the market.

Our mint market share increased 0.7 points, expanding our segment-leading position to 39.8%.

In the C-store class of trade, where the Easter impacts are minimal, the CMG category was up 3%.

However, this was significantly impacted by the mid-single-digit percentage decline in the gum category.

Excluding gum and despite trips being down in this channel in Q1, C-store candy and mint category growth was up a combined 5%, driven by news and activity by major manufacturers.

Hershey instant consumable innovation and programming accelerates over the remainder of the year.

And we would expect our C-store performance to materially exceed our Q1 retail takeaway of 1.5% that resulted in a market share decline of 0.5 points.

In the US marketplace, in addition to the many exciting products I've previously mentioned, we have many exciting promotions, programs, and merchandising in place a cross all channels.

These include a Reese's NCAA game-day football program; new and highly effective Hershey's S'mores advertising; a re-launch of Hershey's Miniatures with improved taste and new packaging, supported with refreshed advertising; and a Sweet Summer Showdown program featuring Twizzlers and Jolly Ranchers.

The Hershey's Spreads launch has gotten off to a good start.

Retailer response has been extremely positive, driving spreads category growth of around 10%.

Category growth is being driven by the chocolate spreads sub-segment, which is up about 40%.

Most major retailers have accepted all three flavors of Hershey Spreads.

Advertising and couponing started in February and is driving initial trial and brand awareness, which we'll leverage when we large the Hershey Spreads instant consumable product in May.

Outside of the US and Canada, international results were mixed.

China continues to be a standout.

Net sales increased in the mid-teens on a percentage basis, versus last year, and exceeded plan.

In China, Hershey continues to be one of the fastest-growing international chocolate companies.

For the three months ended February, chocolate category growth accelerated, driven by gifting and timing of the holiday and Chinese New Year season.

As a result, our chocolate retail takeaway, of about 50%, was more than double the category growth rate, of almost 20%.

Our seasonal sell-through was solid, as evidenced by a 2.3 point share gain and overall China chocolate market share of 10.1%.

Reese's testing and expansion continues, and we're pleased with what we continue to learn.

The team continues to refine the messaging, based on what we have learned to date, and we'll apply these best practices during a broader rollout later this year.

In Mexico, our year-to-date chocolate market share in the modern trade increased 1.1 points.

However, category growth slowed [through] the start of the year, given Easter timing, the VAT tax, and a sluggish economy that's impacting consumer purchasing power and confidence.

As a result, Mexico modern trade chocolate category sales declined about 1%.

This represents a slowdown versus the low double-digit growth (technical difficulty)

(Operator Instructions)

--[consumer] information related to insights-driven performance initiatives.

Now, let me provide a brief update on our international business.

Similar to last year, our expectation entering the year was that 2014 international sales growth would be back-half weighted.

We still believe--

Ladies and gentlemen, we apologize for the technical difficulty.

We believe you got cut off when J.P. started his remarks related to international commentary.

So we will pick it up from there in just a moment.

Again, we apologize for the delay.

Please be patient while we pick up.

J.P. I'll now turn it back to you, if you'll start with your international commentary.

Okay.

Thank you, everyone, for your patience.

And I'm going to have to move here in the room as we continue to make some adjustments.

So please, bear with us.

Assuming that you can hear me now, I'll pick up with our international comments.

Outside of the US and Canada, international results were mixed.

China continues to be a standout.

Net sales increased mid-teens on a percentage basis versus last year and exceed plan.

In China, Hershey continues to be one of the fastest-growing international chocolate companies.

For three months ended February, chocolate category growth accelerated, driven by gifting and the timing of the holiday and Chinese New Year season.

As a result, our chocolate retail takeaway, of about 50%, was more than double the category growth rate, of almost 20%.

Our seasonal sell-through was solid, as evidenced by a 2.3 point share gain and overall China chocolate market share of 10.1%.

Reese's testing and expansion continues, and we're pleased with what we continue to learn.

The team continues to refine the messaging, based on what we've learned to-date, and will apply these best practices during a broader rollout later this year.

In Mexico, our year-to-date chocolate market share in the modern trade increased 1.1 points.

However, category growth slowed to start the year, given Easter timing, the VAT tax, and a sluggish economy that is impacting consumer purchasing power and confidence.

As a result, Mexico modern trade chocolate category sales declined about 1%.

This represents a slowdown versus the low double-digit growth in 2013.

Given these headwinds, we expect Mexico net sales growth to be pressured this year.

In Brazil, local currency net sales were a bit below our plan and year-ago, as volume elasticity, related to a price increase, was greater than anticipated.

Year-to-date, the chocolate category in the modern trade declined 4.9%, due to the timing of Easter.

We primarily participate in the tablet bar and chocolate snack sub-segment, and the categories declined here as well.

However, Hershey tablet bar and chocolate snacks retail takeaway was up, and we gained share.

We expect our business in Brazil to accelerate over the remainder of the year on a local currency basis and be up low-double-digits.

We have good foundation in our key international markets.

We're building on our go-to-market capabilities, driving trial and repeat, and gaining market share.

We're focused on a long-term and not guided by the impacts of foreign currency exchange rates, which is a factor.

[All the while,] we'd most like see international net sales growth of around 15% in 2014.

I'm pleased with the progress we're making.

There are exciting things happening in our focus markets, and we remain on track towards the aspirational goals we've shared with you over the last year.

Now, to wrap up.

We were not pleased with our overall performance in the first quarter.

However, corporate brand merchandising, programming, innovation, and advertising accelerates and is expected to generate solid net sales growth over the remaining three quarters.

As a result, we continue to expect 2014 full-year net sales growth of 5% to 7% and a 9% to 11% increase in adjusted earnings per share, diluted.

I'll now turn it over to Dave, who will provide some additional financial details.

Thank you J.P. Good morning to everyone on the phone and on the webcast.

First-quarter net sales of $1.87 billion increased 2.4% versus last year, generating adjusted earnings per share diluted of $1.15 -- an increase of 5.5% from last year.

The sales growth was below our expectation for the quarter, primarily because of the US market anomalies J.P. discussed, combined with lower sales in Mexico and Brazil.

We expected first quarter sales growth to be tempered by the comparison to the strong Brookside distribution gains last year, our innovation calendar in 2014, and foreign currency headwinds.

In fact, foreign currency exchange rates, primarily the Canadian dollar and Brazilian real, negatively impacted sales growth by 0.8 points, resulting in organic sales growth of 3.2% for the quarter.

Sales growth was driven primarily by North America, which increased 3%.

US net sales growth of 3.4% was essentially all volume related.

Canada achieved slightly higher volume growth, offset by unfavorable FX.

Outside of the US and Canada, net sales declined 2.4%.

Results vary by country, with declines in Latin America and increases in Asia, driven primarily by growth in China.

Turning now to margins.

Adjusted gross margin declined by 10 basis points in the quarter, as higher input costs and an unfavorable sales mix more than offset supply chain productivity and cost savings initiatives.

We incurred higher-than-forecasted dairy and minor raw material costs in the quarter, as well as lower fixed cost absorption, resulting from the lower-than-forecast volumes.

For the year, we now expect gross margin expansion of around 20 basis points.

This is lower than our previous estimate of around 50 basis points, due primarily to higher input costs -- primarily dairy -- and a less favorable sales mix.

Adjusted EBIT in the first quarter increased 3.7% versus last year, generating adjusted EBIT margin of 22.3%, a 30 basis point improvement.

The increase was driven by lower SM&A expenses.

Advertising expense and related consumer marketing decreased about 3% versus last year.

Importantly, we executed our planned advertising programs in the quarter, including the [Reese NCAA] program, seasonal celebrations advertising, and launch support for the Lancaster and Spreads introductions.

We expect advertising spending to increase over the remainder of the year, supporting our new product launches at core brands in North American and international markets.

SG&A, excluding advertising, increased 4% versus last year, but less than our previous estimate, as we delayed certain discretionary items in light of first-quarter market trends, higher input costs, and our initiatives to achieve SG&A leverage.

We will continue to invest in expanded route-to-market capabilities, as well as knowledge-based consumer information related to the insights-driven performance initiatives.

Now let me provide a brief update on our international business.

Similar to last year, our expectation entering the year was that 2014 international sales growth would be back-half weighted.

We still believe that will be the case, given the seasonality of our business, together with our plans for advertising, merchandising, programming, and new products, including the broader distribution of Reese's in Q3 and Q4.

Q1 international net sales declined 2.4% in the quarter.

On a constant currency basis, they increased 2%.

In our focused markets, China net sales increased high teens on a percentage basis and continues to do well.

Importantly, Chinese New Year sell-through was solid, and we are gaining market share.

In Mexico, sales declined.

Our chocolate business in the modern trade is responding to merchandising and programming.

However, our sweets, refreshment, and beverage businesses have been pressured, given the sugar tax and other macroeconomic headwinds impacting Mexican consumers.

We expect the Mexico business to continue to be challenged but to improve over the remainder of the year.

In Brazil, sales declined as consumers are adjusting to higher price points.

We expect that our business will grow over the remainder of the year.

For the full year, we expect international sales growth to be around 15%.

Note that this excludes the Shanghai Golden Monkey business, which we estimate will close in the second quarter of 2014.

Moving down to P&L -- first-quarter interest expense of $21.4 million declined $2.2 million versus last year.

For the full year, we continue to expect interest expense to be around $85 million.

The adjusted tax rate for the first quarter was 34.3%, essentially in line with last year but slightly less than our expectations of 35%, due to the timing of favorable tax issue resolution.

For the full year, we expect the adjusted tax rate to be around 34.5%.

For the first quarter of 2014, weighted average shares outstanding, on a diluted basis, were approximately 227 million shares.

Turning now to the balance sheet and cash flow.

At the end of the first quarter, net trading capital increased versus last year's first quarter by $103 million.

Accounts receivable was higher by $104 million, primarily because of sales timing, and remains extremely current.

Inventory was higher by $52 million, and accounts payable increased by $53 million.

Capital additions, including software, were $80 million in the first quarter.

For the year, we continue to expect total capital expenditures to be about $355 million to $375 million, including the capital related to the Johor, Malaysia, project of $120 million to $130 million.

Depreciation and amortization was $49 million in the first quarter, in line with our estimates.

Cash outflows in Q1 included dividends of $105 million and the repurchase of approximately $272 million of our common shares to replace shares issued in connection with stock option exercises.

All shares were repurchased in the open market.

In 2014, we will make progress against the old share buyback authorization, which has $125 million remaining on it before buying back shares related to the new authorization.

At the end of the first quarter, cash on hand was just over $1 billion.

Let me close by providing some context on our 2014 outlook.

As J.P. outlined, we have initiatives in place that we believe will drive net sales growth across our business.

We are confident of our plans, and we expect 2014 net sales growth within our targeted range of 5% to 7%, including the impact of foreign currency exchange rates.

We believe we have concluded a strong Easter season and April Nielsen data is showing solid improvements in our everyday business.

We expect net sales gains to build through the year, driven by core brand volume growth and innovation in US and international markets, complemented by in-store merchandising, programming, and greater levels of advertising in consumer marketing.

We now expect [gross] margin expansion of around 20 basis points for the year.

We expect higher input costs and a less favorable sales mix versus 2013, offset by supply-chain productivity and improved fixed cost absorption.

We have good visibility into our input costs, with the exception of dairy costs, which we are unable to hedge.

As we look at timing and year-ago comps, we expect second quarter gross margin to be similar to what we had in Q1.

Advertising and related consumer marketing is expected to increase mid-single digits on a percentage basis versus last year, slightly below our previous estimate.

This change does not impact advertising spending on core brands but instead reflects decisions on return on investment analysis on non-scale brands and reductions in non-media consumer spending.

SG&A expenses are expected to increase at a more modest level than previous years, as we start to achieve SG&A leverage.

This increase will build on the investments in go-to-market capabilities as well as consumer knowledge-based projects related to our insights-driven performance initiatives.

As a result, we expect full-year adjusted earnings per share diluted to increase within our long-term targeted growth rate of 9% to 11%.

Note that this outlook excludes estimated operating results related to Shanghai Golden Monkey.

Upon approval of the agreement, expected in the second quarter 2014, and excluding acquisition and transaction costs, the Company expects the acquisition to be slightly accretive on an adjusted basis in 2014.

Thank you for your time this morning.

J.P., Mark, and I will now take any questions you may have.

Thank you, J.P. and Dave, for your remarks.

For everybody on the line and the webcast, we again apologize for the technical difficulties this morning.

Out of respect to a couple of our peers that are reporting this morning and holding conference calls, just so we can facilitate time here, we would ask that you please limit yourself to one question.

Thank you.

And operator, we'll now open it up for Q&A.

Robert Moskow, Credit Suisse.

Rob?

Operator, we're not hearing any questions.

His line is open, sir.

Okay.

Why don't we (multiple speakers) move to the next question?

Hello?

Yes.

I'm sorry.

This is Rob.

My question has to do with the decision to cut advertising.

I wanted to know why you make that decision to lower the advertising growth so early in the year?

It's only first quarter.

It seems to be related to the gross margin cut as well.

Thank you.

I think Rob, weighted think about it is, is that we've really taken a look at some of the secondary brands that we've been supporting.

And what you don't -- and we've limited some of our advertising there.

On our core brands, there really isn't any reduction, and in fact, advertising GRPs would be increased on a couple of levels.

One, the dollar spend against core because moving some of that mix around.

And then, the other thing is in GRP efficiencies.

So as we become a more scale purchaser, one of the things that's happening is, is that we also are more efficient.

So if you really look at GRPs against those core brands and against the new item initiatives that we have, we really feel as though we're executing against a strong plan and what we need.

And of course, we'll continue to assess that as we go forward.

But that is how I think, you might want to think about that.

And the other thing with innovation, you also have, then, stronger consumer events there as well, which we need to support.

So we really feel as though we've got a solid plan.

But John, it seems like your competition is increasing advertising right now.

Are you concerned that you're scaling back when they're scaling up?

No.

I think -- first of all, your assessment is absolutely right.

In fact, in the first quarter we saw with new item introduction as well as some other strong support from competitors, the absolute advertising level in the category was significantly higher than it has been.

So our advertising was higher as well, but not as high as some of the competitive initiatives.

So I think, as others move into a higher advertising spend, that's something that we have to be cognizant of.

I think a lot of that, however, was really in support of what was happening with new item introductions and then, of course, with Easter being later, some of that advertising also, for us, also falls into April as well.

But your point is noted.

Thank you.

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

The one question I wanted to ask was just based -- or relative to gross margin outlook and the potential to raise prices.

The last couple of years -- or the last five years -- whenever there's been some meaningful change in raw material costs, you've been able to price it through.

Is that in the realm of expectation or possibilities, looking forward?

If we're going to see elevated input cost going forward, is there a chance that, maybe, there will be ability to price that through?

Or at this point, do you think the elasticities just don't work in your favor, in that regard?

Yes.

Dave and I'll take that.

It's a two-part.

The first part is, we don't talk about or speculate around what we think pricing will be in the category.

But what I would say is, as you've heard us say before, we'll continue to be a gross margin focused organization.

It'd be tough to necessarily have the level of gross margin expansion we had in 2013, but we continue to be very gross margin focused.

And then, from a commodity perspective, I'll let Dave make any comment he feels appropriate.

Well, as we said, we are seeing a slightly higher commodity costs, particularly dairy, as we look at 2014.

But we do have good visibility on our cost basket, other than dairy, for 2014.

And we'll be addressing 2015 later in the year.

Ken Zaslow, Bank of Montreal.

Just continuing on the ad spending.

What changed with the analysis of the ad spending because you guys do, typically, have pretty good analytics?

I'm not sure exactly what changed as you were looking through it.

And then, just a follow-up on that is, how much leeway do have to further cut, just say, the sales or your numbers don't come within -- the top-line doesn't come within your expectations again?

Is there another leeway for you to produce [that cycle] a little more?

Well, I think first of all, philosophically, we want to make sure that we're fully supporting our brands against the strategies that we've articulated.

There are brands which we've chosen to not support that we have been supporting or reduce some support.

So again, I think that, that's a decision driven by analytics, and it's a good decision.

And then, we really feel as though, based on the ROIs and what we know at this point in time, that we're fully supporting those brands and in our innovation in the second half.

If there were to be a material change in the category, and we are very committed to being brand builders, then we would assess that as we would believe appropriate.

Thank you.

Eric Katzman, Deutsche Bank.

I'm a bit confused on some of the international stuff between local currency and dollar results.

I think, J.P., you said that -- and this was kind of split up -- but I think you said, China was up mid-teens.

But then Dave said it was up high-teens.

And then you mentioned something about being up 50% and two times the category.

Eric, to just put clarification around that.

So, one is a sales number, and the others were off-take numbers during that period of time.

So those would be what the differences of those are.

And remember, with Chinese New Year and so forth, you get -- some of that shipment is actually, would have been in the fourth quarter of last year.

And then, the off-take, really is happening in the quarter.

So that's why you would see differences in that.

And Mark can help you with greater detail around that.

And then, if you look at the other markets, in local currency, we made good progress in Brazil.

But the reais hurt us on FX.

We had some of that in Mexico and Canada as well.

So on a local currency basis, in both Brazil and Canada, we felt good about our progress, but FX hurt us a little bit more there.

Okay.

And then, just as a (multiple speakers)

-- Eric, the profile for international will probably be very similar to last year, where you get a much greater part of the growth in the second half.

So the international dollar sales of down 2.4% in the quarter -- you're saying that for the year international sales will be up 15% in dollars, or is that local currency?

It's in dollars.

That would be dollars, including FX impact.

Including FX impact.

But [ex] M&A.

Okay.

I'll pass it on.

Thank you.

Yes.

Thanks, Eric.

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

I just want to pick up on the pricing theme as well.

Not whether you will or won't take it, of course, but I remember the last time you took a price increase, it was the first time in quite some time that promoted price points went up as well.

And I think, because you were bumping up against some key retail price thresholds, I think the promoted price points went up like 20% or so.

And you ended up managing it very well, in hindsight, and then, the elasticities and all of that.

So I guess, what I'm trying to get a sense of is, is there any way -- it may be hard to do -- that you can characterize where you are today?

And the next time you take pricing, whenever that may be, if it is a year, if it is three years -- are you bumping up against any key retail promoted price point thresholds?

Or is there some room to work within there?

I think, the way that I would think about it is, if you look over an extended period of time, the category has been pretty inelastic.

And so it's 50% volume, 50% price realization, historically in the category.

As we have crossed price thresholds, which we always watch very closely, our experience has been pretty positive that the category digests that pricing.

The category in general, I think, has demonstrated its ability to, again, be pretty accessible and affordable.

And that really has won the day.

And then there's a couple of things to think about, in terms of how companies may think about pricing, is that, obviously, there's a commodities element.

And then there's an element of how you invest in the business.

And I don't think it is exclusively one or the other, but we look at both of those.

And I think both of those things are integral to how you would think about that particular topic.

That's probably, Andrew, I don't know if that satisfies you, but that's probably about as far as I can go on that.

That's helpful.

I appreciate your perspective.

Thank you.

David Driscoll, Citi.

I wanted to go back to advertising for a minute, just to be clear -- at least, as much as we can.

So ad spending in the quarter -- down 3%.

Full-year -- at mid-single-digit increase.

So clearly, it's going up.

You're supporting your products, not as much as before, but you're supporting it.

I think what this suggests is that the change was almost entirely in the first quarter.

And as I look at Q2, Q3, and Q4, you're going to have fairly substantial increases in Q2, Q3, and Q4.

So first off, is that right?

And is that pretty much consistent with the plans?

I think it helps people to understand that, maybe, the big change was Q1.

And it's not something that's massively different in the next bunch of quarters.

Can we start there?

Yes, I think that's a very good assessment.

Okay.

Then, on the increases that you have coming in Q2, Q3, and Q4 -- where are they going to be deployed?

Because, I think, what everybody is going to want to understand as best they can is your expectation that sales growth will accelerate.

And I think it's going to be directly related to where all of this additional ad spending goes.

So can you talk about how you deploy it?

Well, if you think about the innovation we have this year, it's actually spread across our different segments of the business.

And so, you'll see the appropriate amount of advertising supporting a broad piece of the portfolio.

But appropriately, you will see it supporting the new initiatives.

And then, you have Lancaster and Spreads, which really just started in February.

And we're building distribution there.

So you will see strong support for those as we go throughout the year.

We feel very good about our distribution progress.

We've had a coupon drop.

And we should continue to build on our merchandising and then advertising support for both of those as well.

So those will be brands that are supported.

Just to be clear -- coming back -- the support on our core brands continues to grow.

So a lot of that growth, again, is out of GRP purchase efficiency.

And then it's not making a choice not to advertise on some secondary brands.

If you recall historically, we've talked about how we like to rotate across those brands.

So that's also money that comes back against the core.

Really appreciate it.

Thank you.

Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

My guess is, you're cutting ad spending on, maybe, some brands like Bliss Simple Pleasures.

At least in Nielsen data, they're lagging a bit.

So first, is that correct?

Right.

That's correct.

That's right.

So Air Delights, too, I would imagine.

Can you talk a little bit about the future of those brands?

How should we think about them?

I guess I am asking, is there a risk they get de-listed?

Right?

Is there some ski rack coming?

Because often, when step one is cutting advertising, step two can be the brand loses whatever -- I don't want to say shaky -- but whatever legs it had.

I think the way to think about it is, it doesn't mean that we would not be supporting those brands.

I think, in a couple of instances, there may be some of the brands that you talked about that have ended up playing more of a niche role than maybe we would have hoped at one point in time.

In the case of Bliss, it's a meaningful brand and within a position.

But that whole trade-up space has evolved over time.

And so it doesn't mean that we wouldn't support a brands like Bliss, but we're in an environment where we believe making choices is important.

These brands will evolve, and consumers will ultimately decide how they do.

Great.

Thanks, J.P.

David Palmer, RBC.

Typically, Hershey starts the year rather quickly.

This year, obviously, it's not the case.

Some of it seems to be your timing of new product news.

But some of it seems to be -- from what we're hearing -- Mars, which has been rather aggressive on promotions.

And that's a big contrast from the last couple of years.

Could you comment on that?

And then, specifically related to the seasonal share, which I guess was down significantly if I look at the numbers in your release.

We heard there may have been something about co-packer issue where orders weren't filled right away for Hershey -- one of your co-packers.

Was that a factor at all in the quarter?

No.

Let me talk about -- let me make a broad statement here about the quarter.

First of all, you have the timing of Easter being three weeks later.

So there's just a lot of noise in the data.

You had strong competitive programs.

It included new items and also increased advertising.

Our plan, as you point out, is much more back-half loaded than it was before.

So even though we had introductions with Kit Kat Minis.

You have spreads.

You have Lancaster.

All of those are currently building.

And then you had anomalies in the consumer purchasing patterns.

All of those thing's clearly had an influence.

I wouldn't focus on one much more than the other.

As we look at weekly data, and as I have said you guys many times, I don't get overly enamored by weekly data.

But I guess in this case, what I would tell you is, I continue to be encouraged that our hypotheses around the quarter in the things that we are describing to you, I feel good about because as we look at the weekly data, it continues to strengthen.

And, in fact, in the latest weekly data on a year-to-date basis, our total CMG share has turned positive, which again gives me confidence that as I talk to resellers, consumers seem to be back in stores.

I can't comment on -- for anybody -- what they're spending is.

But it appears to feel as though some of the trips issues, some of the basket mix, et cetera -- I'm more comfortable calling it an anomaly.

I do believe, going forward, there is some degree of bifurcation in the total consumer environment.

But we'll sort that out for all CPG, as we go forward.

I am just feeling a lot better, as I see some of this weekly data come in, that we've called this about right.

Thank you.

Matthew Grainger, Morgan Stanley.

I just wanted to focus on the factors underlying the lower gross margin outlook.

I know there are some specific external things like higher dairy and Q1 traffic that have had an incremental impact.

But looking beyond the lower Q1 fixed cost allocations and what we already know about dairy prices, to what extent does that lower gross margin outlook also reflect a view that the competitive and the promotional environment could be, sustainably, a bit more intense than you originally envisioned?

The biggest chunk of the gross margin change is, in fact, the dairy outlook.

There are some impacts around the sales mix, which are principally in the first quarter.

We have programming very well set for the balance of the year.

So we think that the we're in the right place on that.

And we have a good view of our commodity costs, with the exception of dairy.

And I would say, too, Matt, even if you continue to look at your IRI and Nielsen data, you just don't see a lot of positive or negative players in the category.

Which would help answer your question, as well, of what's really going on.

As J.P. alluded to, there's just a lot of activity in the first quarter, which is what we expected and knew, coming into this year.

Okay.

All right.

Thank you.

John Baumgartner, Wells Fargo securities.

Just on some of the elasticity in Brazil.

Does the magnitude of that surprise you at all?

And then, maybe related -- if you look around at some of these snacking categories and developing markets -- maybe biscuits, gum -- one can, maybe, argue here the category level growth hasn't really snapped back, following the recession.

Is that your sense?

These categories are prone for more tempered growth, going forward?

Just your thoughts there.

I actually would tell you that I continue to be very positive on the category, especially on the chocolate segment, across just about all of these markets.

And, I think, that we're going to have some of these different dynamics, the reais got awfully strong, unusually strong -- from my historical experience.

And now it's moving the other direction.

I think, as we look at, what do we believe are the right plans within a given market?

Do we feel, on a local currency basis, we're managing our business correctly for the long term?

And then, we have a relatively modest-sized business in a country like Brazil.

With that being the case, sometimes when you have negatives -- from a translation standpoint -- the impact is accentuated.

We sometimes probably have that as a bit of a greater influence on how those numbers come out.

But I continue to feel good about the progress, the distribution we're building across the country and our brand portfolio there.

I think, for our Company, part of what you see there may be less macro and a little bit more unique to us, given the size of our business there.

Great.

Thanks J.P.

Alexia Howard, Sanford Bernstein.

I just wanted to pick up on your comments about the lower consumer trips in the instant consumable channel and the irregular purchasing patterns in traditional [and mass].

Could you just give us a little bit of a handle on what that was?

I know it's settled down now, but what caused it to settle down?

Thank you.

Yes.

If you looked at just trips in general, and you went back to about June, July of 2013, you could start to see a change in the frequency of trips.

And then, the distances people drove from their home to do their primary shopping.

That was one of the reasons.

The food channel, as an example, continued to do a little bit better as people got a higher percentage of their primary trip, there.

And so, that was one of the influences.

It continued through the fall and into the first quarter.

And what we observed -- as we look at total store data and household panel data, et cetera -- is that the mix in the basket changed.

So you've got a little bit greater focus on staples versus instant consumables.

If you think about people who may have been impacted by the weather -- we saw differences across the country of weather wasn't an issue versus weather being an issue.

And then, you also have changes in some of the government programs that people had to adjust to and figure out what that meant for them.

And so, I think, this concept of bifurcation, also, is an issue with terms of how people build their basket.

So there was just a lot of moving parts.

And what we believe we're seeing is a bit of an emergence from that, where things -- both in terms of traffic, primary shopping, outlets, as well as mix of the basket -- is returning to what we might call a more historical norm.

I think the trips data, of course, we'll continue to follow and see if that changes and comes back.

But those are really some of the influences that were in that comment.

Great.

Thank you, very much.

I'll pass it on.

Operator, we have time for one more question.

Rob Dickerson, Consumer Edge Research.

A question on balancing cash flow.

I understand Q1 is a little bit more pressure than expected -- part of it's coming off of international, advertising is pulled back.

We have seen share loss in the US.

That's coming from some lower-end, but we're also seeing it from Russell and Lindt -- some of the higher-end hiring guys.

There's also been some discussion, though, on the M&A front for some smaller players.

One company, (Inaudible), to be frank.

And in another company, [there's been rumors] that the brothers might be looking to sell.

I'm just curious, if you were to come under pressure, you're now running at a debt level.

It's about a 15-year low.

I understand all of the near term pressures in the business, but can you discuss a bit, what your theory is around cap allocation, outside of Golden Monkey, over the last two years?

I haven't seen any shares purchased, really, or repurchased, to affect EPS over the last two years, for the most part.

I don't really feel like a lot of people were talking about the balance sheet.

Thanks.

I guess, we feel very good about our balance sheet.

We have a very strong balance sheet.

And as we look at -- and we had about $1 billion in cash at the end of the quarter.

As we look at both our cash and our debt capacity, our priority, first, continues to be to grow.

And so we're continuing to look at M&A opportunities.

And we're also investing in capital to support our business growth.

We've got new plant under construction in Malaysia.

And we will have some additional need for additional volume as our business grows.

So our number one priority for cash and debt continues to be growth.

And we expect that to be M&A, and also to be the capital investments.

Our second priority is dividends.

We have a policy of about 50% dividend payout of our earnings.

So that's where we would go.

And then third, we would go to share buyback.

We buy back what is exercised in options.

And as I reported, we bought back a bit over $200 million in the first quarter for replenishing option exercises.

And we also have $125 million on an old authorization and an additional $250 million on a new authorization that we did earlier in the year.

And we expect to be making progress against those as we go through the year.

That's our priorities.

First is growth, second is dividend, and then we will buy back shares after that.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you very much for joining us for today's conference call.

And again, we apologize for the technical difficulties.

[Sergio Flores] and I will be available to take any follow-up calls that you may have.

Thank you very much.

This concludes today's conference call.

You may now disconnect.