好時 (HSY) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to The Hershey Company's fourth-quarter 2024 question-and-answer session.

大家好，歡迎參加好時公司 2024 年第四季問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I'd now like to turn the call over to your host, Anoori Naughton, Senior Director of Investor Relations for The Hershey Company.

現在，我想將電話轉給主持人、好時公司投資者關係高級總監 Anoori Naughton。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thank you for joining us today for The Hershey Company's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings Q&A session.

感謝您今天參加好時公司 2024 年第四季財報問答環節。

I hope everyone has had the chance to read our press release and listen to our pre-recorded management remarks, both of which are available on our website.

我希望每個人都有機會閱讀我們的新聞稿並聆聽我們預先錄製的管理層評論，這兩者都可以在我們的網站上找到。

In addition, we have posted a transcript of the pre-recorded remarks.

此外，我們也發布了預先錄製的發言的記錄稿。

At the conclusion of today's live Q&A session, we will also post a transcript and audio replay of this call.

在今天的現場問答環節結束時，我們也將發布本次通話的記錄和音訊回放。

Please note that during today's Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

請注意，在今天的問答環節中，我們可能會做出受各種風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述。

These statements, including expectations and assumptions regarding the company's future operations and financial performance.

這些聲明包括對公司未來營運和財務表現的預期和假設。

Actual results could differ materially from those projected.

實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。

The company undertakes no obligation to update these statements based on subsequent events.

本公司不承擔根據後續事件更新這些聲明的義務。

A detailed listing of such risks and uncertainties can be found in today's press release and the company's SEC filings.

此類風險和不確定性的詳細清單可在今天的新聞稿和公司的美國證券交易委員會文件中找到。

Finally, please note that we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe provide useful information for investors.

最後，請注意，我們可能會參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，我們認為這些指標可以為投資者提供有用的信息。

The presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance to the GAAP.

此資訊的呈現並非旨在單獨考慮或取代根據 GAAP 呈現的財務資訊。

Reconciliations for the GAAP results are included in this morning's press release.

今天早上的新聞稿中包含了 GAAP 結果的對帳表。

Joining me today are Hershey's Chairman and CEO, Michele Buck; and Hershey's Senior Vice President and CFO, Steve Voskuil.

今天與我一起出席的還有好時公司董事長兼執行長 Michele Buck；以及好時高級副總裁兼財務長史蒂夫·沃斯奎爾（Steve Voskuil）。

With that, I will turn it over to the operator for the first question.

說完這些，我會把第一個問題交給接線員。

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Michele, I know it's clearly way too early to get overly prescriptive at this stage on '26.

米歇爾，我知道現在對 26 年做出過多的規定還為時過早。

But in the prepared remarks, you do mention positioning the company for balanced top and bottom line growth in '26.

但在準備好的評論中，您確實提到了在26年實現公司營收和利潤平衡成長的定位。

And I was really hoping you could just provide maybe just some context around this, such as is growth doable in '26 if cocoa remains at currently elevated levels?

我真的希望您能提供一些有關這方面的背景信息，例如，如果可可保持在目前的高位，26 年是否能實現增長？

And if so, how do you feel about the ability to take more pricing in '26 to get there?

如果是這樣，您認為在 26 年能否採取更多定價措施來達到這一目標？

Even though we don't yet have a good sense for how the incremental pricing will be received by consumers for this year. I'm really just trying to put some broader parameters around this and sort of what's embedded in your comment about the potential for balanced growth in '26.

儘管我們目前還不太清楚今年消費者會如何接受增量定價。我實際上只是想就此提出一些更廣泛的參數，以及您在評論中提到的 26 年平衡成長潛力的相關內容。

Yeah.

是的。

Got it.

知道了。

Steve, do you want to just take a crack at that one?

史蒂夫，你想嘗試嗎？

Yeah, I'd be happy to.

是的，我很樂意。

So as implied, when we say balance growth, we want to eventually get EPS back on algorithm.

所以正如所暗示的，當我們說平衡成長時，我們希望最終讓 EPS 回到演算法上。

And so as we look to '26, one of the benefits to the great hedging and commodity team is we're not paying the market price, so you always have the catch-up factor relative to commodity.

因此，當我們展望26年時，偉大的對沖和商品團隊的一個好處是，我們不支付市場價格，因此您總是擁有相對於商品的追趕因素。

But that said, just like for 2025, when we look at '26, we expect to use the full suite of levers we have to manage cocoa price, and that includes looking at pricing, that includes additional productivity and CI savings, that includes continuing to drive efficiency and SG&A and even driving more return for the same dollars, in some case, on marketing spend.

但話雖如此，就像 2025 年一樣，當我們展望 2026 年時，我們希望使用我們必須使用的全套槓桿來管理可可價格，其中包括考慮定價，包括提高生產力和 CI 節省，包括繼續提高效率和銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A)，甚至在某些情況下，在營銷支出上以同樣的錢獲得更多的回報。

So all of those things will be in the consideration set as we take a look at what we can do in 2026.

因此，當我們考慮 2026 年可以做什麼時，所有這些事情都會被考慮在內。

We wouldn't expect pricing to be easy.

我們並不指望定價會這麼容易。

That probably would be a conversation we'd have to have and think about internally the impact.

這可能需要我們進行一次對話並在內部思考其影響。

But still 80% of our portfolio is less than $4 on the confection side.

但我們投資組合中 80% 的糖果價格仍低於 4 美元。

And so that would have to be one of the things we take a look at.

所以，這必須是我們要關注的事情之一。

And then, maybe can you talk about what sort of elasticity you're seeing currently as some price has already sort of made its way into the market in 4Q?

然後，您能否談談您目前看到的什麼樣的彈性，因為某些價格已經在第四季度進入市場？

And I asked just because our understanding is that Hershey has taken sort of a different approach to pricing this year where the company is maybe not fully in line pricing across the portfolio.

我之所以問這個問題，是因為我們的理解是，好時今年採取了不同的定價方式，公司的產品定價可能並未完全一致。

And I wonder if part of not taking prices up in instant consumables is sort of a reflection of elasticity concerns or there's some other sort of strategic intent there.

我想知道，不提高即食消費品價格是否在一定程度上反映了對彈性的擔憂，或者有其他某種戰略意圖。

Sure.

當然。

So it's a little bit early for us to have the full visibility to those results.

因此，對我們來說，全面了解這些結果還為時過早。

What I'd say is what we're seeing is elasticities coming in either on par with our expectations and in some cases, slightly better.

我想說的是，我們看到的彈性要么與我們的預期相當，要么在某些情況下略好一些。

So we are carefully watching that, obviously.

因此我們顯然正在密切關注這一點。

We have a lot of confidence in our ability to price, and we strategically selected where we thought it was best to do that.

我們對自己的定價能力非常有信心，並且我們策略性地選擇了我們認為最好的定價地點。

And we certainly always take into account an expectation of where we think cocoa will be.

我們當然始終會考慮對可可未來前景的期待。

And as we think, it is going to normalize, how we factor that into the pricing decisions, so that we are really balancing how aggressive we go.

正如我們所想的，它將會正常化，我們如何將其考慮進定價決策中，以便我們真正平衡我們的激進程度。

So we will continue to monitor that, but feel good about what we're seeing to date.

因此我們將繼續監控這種情況，但對目前所看到的情況我們感到滿意。

Ken Goldman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

In your prepared remarks, you said you're prepared to adjust pricing, price pack architecture, et cetera.

在您準備好的評論中，您說您準備好調整價格、價格包架構等等。

If your view on commodity markets evolves, I just wanted to get a little bit more color on what that necessarily means. Is that dependent on how you view underlying supply and demand?

如果您對商品市場的看法發生了變化，我只是想更清楚地了解這究竟意味著什麼。這是否取決於您如何看待潛在的供需？

Or is it really more dependent on, hey, just looking at the futures market and saying, okay, the prices are what they are, right or wrong?

或者它實際上是否更多地依賴於，嘿，只要看看期貨市場，然後說，好吧，價格就是這樣，對還是錯？

Just trying to get a sense of your timeline and how you think about when you might want to make that decision to adjust pricing or make other decisions around formulations and so forth.

只是想了解你的時間表，以及你如何考慮何時做出調整價格或圍繞配方等做出其他決定。

So Ken, we take both of those things into account.

所以肯，我們將這兩件事都考慮在內。

Let me start by talking a little bit about our view on the market, and then I'm going to turn it over to Steve to talk a little bit about how we balance those factors.

首先，我先談談我們對市場的看法，然後我將讓史蒂夫談談我們如何平衡這些因素。

We continue to feel good about what we're seeing in the market fundamentals. We're continuing to see production increase with nearly half of the production today coming from areas outside of Ivory Coast and Ghana.

我們對於目前看到的市場基本面繼續感到樂觀。我們看到產量持續增加，目前近一半的產量來自科特迪瓦和加納以外的地區。

And we think that's really healthy for the global cocoa supply over time.

我們認為，從長遠來看，這對全球可可供應非常有利。

It's going to be much more diversified and that diversification is going to provide an inherent resilience, just balancing weather factors and geopolitical factors, et cetera.

它將變得更加多樣化，這種多樣化將提供固有的彈性，平衡天氣因素和地緣政治因素等等。

We're continuing to take actions in West Africa to continue to help drive resiliency.

我們將繼續在西非採取行動，繼續幫助提高復原力。

And as we diversify our impact, it's going to look -- it's looking different by market.

隨著我們的影響多樣化，它看起來會有所不同——不同的市場有所不同。

We've made investments in West Africa.

我們在西非進行了投資。

We will continue to do that. We've also diversified our supply sources.

我們將繼續這樣做。我們也實現了供應來源多樣化。

So we're watching those fundamentals.

因此我們正在關注這些基本面。

And certainly, that is one factor for us.

當然，這對我們來說是一個因素。

At the same time, we know that fundamentals and the market price aren't exactly aligned, and we certainly take that into account as well.

同時，我們知道基本面和市場價格並不完全一致，我們當然也會考慮到這一點。

Steve, do you want to talk a little bit more about that?

史蒂夫，你想再進一步談談這個嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

I would just say at the same time that we still see pricing in cocoa as transient right now.

同時，我想說的是，我們目前仍然認為可可的價格是暫時的。

We're dealing with the reality on the ground, which is to say we're building plans for '26.

我們正在處理現實問題，也就是說，我們正在為26年制定計劃。

We'll be watching the cocoa market in -- what's happening in reality, a lot through the first half of the year, but not waiting even for that before setting plans, and again, kind of touching all parts of the P&L in the event we don't see that retrenchment, so that we're ready to go for 2026.

我們將密切關注可可市場的實際情況，在今年上半年我們會密切關注，但我們不會等到那時才制定計劃，而且，如果我們沒有看到這種緊縮，我們就會觸及損益表的所有部分，以便我們為 2026 年做好準備。

And as I said earlier, get back to an on-algorithm opportunity on EPS.

正如我之前所說的，回到 EPS 的演算法機會。

The other thing we do watch is not only -- what's the price on the exchange, but what's actually happening to those prices in origin.

我們關注的另一件事不僅是交易所的價格，還有原產地價格的實際情況。

And there is some differential there.

這其中存在一些差異。

And so we take that into account as well.

因此我們也考慮到了這一點。

Understood.

明白了。

No, that's helpful.

不，這很有幫助。

And then, just a quick follow-up.

然後，只需快速跟進。

I think you had answered Andrew's question about what you're seeing for elasticities today.

我認為你已經回答了安德魯關於你今天看到的彈性的問題。

It's great to hear that they're on par, or maybe in some cases, slightly better.

很高興聽到他們表現不相上下，甚至在某些情況下甚至略勝一籌。

Just curious, what is baked into your guidance?

只是好奇，你的指導包含了什麼？

And if you said this, I missed it, but how are you thinking about elasticity as more pricing unfolds throughout this year?

如果您這麼說，我錯過了，但是隨著今年更多定價的展開，您如何看待彈性？

So we've baked into our guidance historic elasticities at that minus one level.

因此，我們將歷史彈性納入了我們的指導方針中，減去一個水平。

We'll watch those because we do think that, depending on factors, there could be upside, but we think that is the prudent approach for us right now.

我們會注意這些，因為我們確實認為，根據各種因素，可能會有上行空間，但我們認為這是我們目前的謹慎做法。

Max Gumport, BNP.

英國國家銀行的馬克斯·甘波特（Max Gumport）。

I have a follow-up question on elasticities and the minus one assumption.

我有一個關於彈性和減一假設的後續問題。

I mean to me, it feels like this is the key unknown for '25, right?

我的意思是，對我來說，這感覺就像是 25 年的關鍵未知數，對嗎？

You've got cocoa costs largely locked in, pricing implemented, visibility to cost savings is pretty clear.

您已經基本上鎖定了可可成本，實施了定價，成本節約的可見性非常明顯。

And so could you just give a bit more color on what's informing the minus one and if that applies to your smaller international segment, too, particularly in context of a competitor talking about the elasticity level in '25 that would be much more favorable?

那麼，您能否更詳細地說明減一的原因，以及這是否也適用於您較小的國際市場，特別是在競爭對手談論'25 年的彈性水平會更有利的情況下？

So we do see upside if elasticities come in better.

因此，如果彈性更好，我們確實看到上行空間。

We again think that it is a prudent stance to take as we work through the volatile consumer marketplace and some of the pressures that we know exists for consumers.

我們再次認為，在我們應對動盪的消費市場和我們所知道的消費者存在的一些壓力時，採取這種立場是明智的。

And we have also considered greater elasticities in international in the outlook.

我們也考慮了國際前景中更大的彈性。

We are not the market leader in many of those markets, so not always leading those price increases.

在許多市場中，我們並不是市場領導者，因此並不總是引領價格上漲。

So we take a different stance relative to our approach there. I mean, it's a smaller piece of our business, obviously, so it doesn't have nearly as big of an impact, but we do look at it differently.

因此，我們在那裡採取了不同的立場。我的意思是，這顯然只是我們業務中較小的一部分，因此影響不會那麼大，但我們確實以不同的方式看待它。

Right.

正確的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then, staying on international, I realize that it is a smaller segment, but you had a very strong 4Q with broad-based strength across your markets.

然後，繼續談論國際市場，我意識到這是一個較小的細分市場，但你們的第四季表現非常強勁，並且在各個市場都具有廣泛的實力。

So the commentary of low single-digit growth was tightened competitive activity in '25, stood out to me.

因此，對於 25 年低個位數成長導致競爭活動收緊的評論，對我來說很突出。

Can you talk a bit more about what the competitive activity is you're seeing in those markets, where it's more pronounced and how you expect to manage through it?

您能否進一步談談您在這些市場中看到的競爭活動是什麼樣的、哪裡的競爭更為激烈以及您預計如何應對？

Sure.

當然。

Yeah, the fourth quarter was strong.

是的，第四節表現強勁。

They were helped a little bit by a favorable lap, and we also have some big Black Friday performance in a couple of markets where that was a big holiday.

有利的一圈對他們提供了一些幫助，而且我們在幾個黑色星期五的重大節日期間也取得了出色的成績。

So strong performance there.

那裡的表現非常強勁。

When you look at the totality of last year, the business was up about one point, so more on balance, the '25 outlook doesn't look as different.

從去年全年來看，業務成長了約 1 個百分點，因此總體而言，2025 年的前景看起來並沒有太大不同。

We saw, I would say, the highest competitive activity in Brazil and Mexico.

我想說，我們看到巴西和墨西哥的競爭最激烈。

Brazil, in particular, was very intense, a lot of promotion.

尤其是巴西，宣傳力道非常大，推廣力道也很大。

We have a lot of innovation in those markets, and that helped certainly in the fourth quarter.

我們在這些市場有很多創新，這無疑對第四季度起到了幫助。

But again, as we look kind of at the totality of 2025, we expect to see that competition increase, and that's really what's informing the growth there.

但是，當我們展望2025年的整體情況時，我們預期競爭將會加劇，這才是推動其成長的真正因素。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科（Robert Moskow），TD Cowen。

Steve, I think, I'll just ask about phasing.

史蒂夫，我想我只想問一下有關分階段的問題。

Do you expect your gross margin pressure to be pretty even throughout the quarters?

您是否預期各季度的毛利率壓力會相當均勻？

Or in fourth quarter, are you fully covered for fourth quarter?

或者在第四季度，您是否已完全覆蓋第四季度？

Or will there be like another hit in fourth quarter when hedges roll over?

或者當第四季對沖失效時，是否會出現另一次衝擊？

Sure.

當然。

So for the full year, we're nearly completely covered on cocoa.

因此，就全年而言，我們幾乎完全涵蓋了可可。

And so, we don't expect a big hit -- kind of a new hit from the outlook in the fourth quarter.

因此，我們預計第四季度的前景不會出現大的打擊——某種意義上來說是一種新的打擊。

If you look at the split of gross margin, we're going to have less gross margin pressure in the first half, where cocoa will be based on our hedging less, probably in the neighborhood of under 500 basis points.

如果你看一下毛利率的分拆，我們上半年的毛利率壓力將會較小，因為可可的對沖壓力會較小，可能在 500 個基點以下。

And as we get to the back half, we'll see more impact, as those hedge positions are going to be higher priced, just based on the flow of cocoa, so definitely more in the back half than the first half.

而當我們進入後半段時，我們將看到更多的影響，因為這些對沖頭寸的價格將會更高，這僅基於可可的流量，所以後半段的影響肯定比上半段更大。

Okay.

好的。

And just a quick follow-up for Michele.

接下來是 Michele 的簡短跟進。

Michele, are you seeing your competitors take similar actions on pricing?

米歇爾，你是否看到你的競爭對手在定價方面採取了類似的行動？

You've been very strategic about where you're going to take it.

您對於要採取的行動非常有策略。

It doesn't sound like you're taking it in some consumables yet.

聽起來你還沒有把它當作一些消耗品。

Have you seen similar actions?

你看過類似的動作嗎？

Or are there some discrepancies out there?

或者說其中存在著一些矛盾？

I guess, I'd say, overall, I think, the category is very rational, and we have seen most major players taking pricing, including private label, which has also taken pretty aggressive pricing as well.

我想說，總的來說，我認為這個類別非常合理，我們已經看到大多數主要參與者採取了定價，包括自有品牌，其也採取了相當激進的定價。

I'd say that that pricing has probably been a bit more broad-based, though people tend to cycle through parts of their portfolio as they see appropriate and price 60% at one time and then go to the next piece.

我想說的是，這種定價可能更為廣泛一些，儘管人們傾向於在他們認為合適的情況下循環其投資組合的各個部分，一次定價 60%，然後再轉向下一部分。

We know that we've tried to be just considerate of pressure in certain channels, but nothing is off the table for us.

我們知道，我們一直試圖透過某些管道來考慮壓力，但我們不會放棄任何可能。

We are continuously evaluating the entire portfolio.

我們正在持續評估整個投資組合。

Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

亞歷克西亞·霍華德，伯恩斯坦。

Okay.

好的。

So first of all, can I just ask on the sales outlook for 2025, it's obviously fairly muted compared to the strong performance this time around.

所以首先，我可以問一下 2025 年的銷售前景嗎？

Is that mainly due to the conservative price elasticity assumption?

這主要是由於保守的價格彈性假設嗎？

Or are there other puts and takes in there?

或是有其他的進出嗎？

So I'd say a couple of things.

因此我想說幾件事。

International was a bit more pressured than we would normally see in our growth algorithm.

國際上的壓力比我們在成長演算法中通常看到的壓力要大一些。

So that certainly played a role.

所以這肯定發揮了作用。

We're certainly taking into account the volatility in the marketplace.

我們當然會考慮到市場的波動。

We do anticipate that our consumption will be a bit stronger than shipments, due primarily to retailer inventory in North America confection. And so that's playing a role as well. In addition, one fewer shipping day.

我們確實預期我們的消費量將比出貨量略強，這主要歸因於北美糖果零售商的庫存。這也發揮了一定的作用。此外，運輸日也減少了一天。

And we do have some commercial activations that are really coming into play closer to the back half of the year, but those are the key components.

我們確實有一些商業活動將在下半年真正發揮作用，但這些是關鍵組成部分。

Follow-up, can I come back to the topic of GLP-1s, which has come up in the past?

後續問題，我可以回到之前討論過的 GLP-1 主題嗎？

Are you seeing any material impact at the moment?

您現在看到任何實質的影響了嗎？

How are you measuring it?

您如何測量它？

And what's the strategy here as that plays out over time?

那麼，隨著時間的推移，這裡的策略是什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

So we are seeing no material impacts.

因此我們沒有看到任何實質的影響。

We are continuously looking externally to get and evaluate data.

我們不斷地從外部取得和評估數據。

We have triangulated both external and internal evidence, including some of the most recent studies like the recent Cornell and Numerator studies, and they tend to validate our internal views.

我們對內部和外部證據進行了三角測量，包括一些最新的研究，如最近的康乃爾大學和 Numerator 的研究，它們傾向於驗證我們的內部觀點。

We have multiple data sources that also support our view that users of the drugs do not eat disproportionately less of our categories.

我們有多個數據來源也支持我們的觀點，即藥物使用者吃的我們這類食物並不會不成比例地少。

We do know that there's a broader shift in consumer preference for healthier items that has been underway for some time, items that have nutritional claims around low sugar and other things.

我們確實知道，消費者對更健康食品的偏好發生了更廣泛的轉變，這種轉變已經持續了一段時間，這些食品聲稱具有低糖等營養成分。

And we will continue to evolve our portfolio as we continue to track what's important to consumers.

我們將持續追蹤消費者關注的重點，並不斷改進我們的產品組合。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

美國銀行的彼得‧加爾博 (Peter Galbo)。

Steve, maybe just a follow-up on phasing on top line.

史蒂夫，也許只是對頂線階段的後續行動。

I know you gave color on 1Q and 2Q in the prepared remarks.

我知道您在準備好的評論中對第一季和第二季進行了詳細說明。

But I think there was a comment you actually just made to Alexia's question around the back half of the year, 4Q maybe has one less day.

但我認為您實際上剛剛在去年下半年對 Alexia 的問題發表了評論，第四季度可能少了一天。

Just want to make sure we have all the moving parts on top line as we think about bridging to the 2% given there's some wonkiness in the comps.

由於同行業中存在一些異常情況，我們只是想確保在考慮過渡到 2% 時，我們擁有所有可行的組件。

Sure.

當然。

One quarter, the first quarter has two fewer shipping days.

一個季度，第一季的出貨天數少了兩天。

Fourth quarter has one.

第四季有一個。

And so they have one extra.

所以他們多了一個。

So net-net, you're one day short for the full year.

因此，總體而言，您全年還差一天。

Again, pretty minor between those two between first half and second half.

再次，上半場和下半場之間的差異非常小。

But overall in the second half, we'd expect low single-digit growth.

但總體而言，我們預計下半年將出現低個位數成長。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then, Michele, maybe if I could switch gears.

然後，米歇爾，也許我可以換個話題。

There's commentary about being able to participate in the downside if cocoa markets do fall given your risk caps.

有評論稱，如果可可市場在風險上限的情況下下跌，您將能夠參與下跌空間。

You spoke a little bit about, I believe, off exchange mechanisms you're seeing some of the competitors are doing.

我認為您剛才談到了一些您看到一些競爭對手正在採用的場外交易機制。

There's been some reporting about maybe your own activities that have been outside of the norm.

有一些報導稱，您的活動可能有些不正常。

So just wanted to get a deeper understanding of kind of what you're seeing from that perspective, what instruments you're seeing yourselves and your competitors using?

所以只是想更深入地了解從這個角度您所看到的內容，您自己和您的競爭對手使用什麼工具？

And maybe if you can also comment just on your own activity that's maybe been outside the norm.

也許您也可以僅對自己的活動進行評論，這可能超出了常規。

So right now, we are seeing very low commercial participation on the exchange.

所以現在，我們看到交易所的商業參與度非常低。

And yes, we have been looking at alternatives and options of how we approach our cocoa supply chain.

是的，我們一直在尋找處理可可供應鏈的替代方案和選擇。

Our focus is really -- there has been an opportunity to get lower prices in origin versus on the exchange, and we're trying to be very opportunistic about how we approach this whole area and take advantage of the market dislocations in a place that we see that we can come in a bit differently.

我們的重點實際上是——有機會在原產地獲得比交易所更低的價格，而且我們正試圖抓住機會，採取非常有針對性的措施來處理整個領域，並利用我們認為可以稍微不同地進入的地方的市場錯位。

Steve, anything you would add to that?

史蒂夫，您還有什麼要補充嗎？

No, I think we won't get more specific on the types of instruments, but market dislocation sometimes present opportunities.

不，我認為我們不會更具體地說明工具的類型，但市場錯位有時會帶來機會。

And so we want to make sure we're looking everywhere we can for opportunities.

因此，我們要確保我們能在所有地方尋找機會。

Tom Palmer, Citi.

花旗銀行的湯姆·帕爾默。

Maybe just starting out, we could circle back to the elasticity assumption.

也許剛開始時，我們可以回到彈性假設。

I just want to make sure, I have kind of the starting point, right, when you talk about minus one, it would be without pricing. I guess, what level of growth roughly do you assume as a starting point and then, the elasticity starts to trigger?

我只是想確保，我有一個起點，對吧，當你談到減一時，那就沒有定價了。我猜，您大致認為什麼樣的成長水平是一個起點，然後彈性開始觸發？

And I guess, when we think about this coming year, is it different as a starting point than maybe you would have in your long-term algorithm or relatively normal?

我想，當我們考慮來年時，它的起點是否與您的長期演算法或相對正常的起點不同？

So I would say, it's largely similar to how we approach it.

所以我想說，這與我們處理這個問題的方式非常相似。

I mean, we always say we look at the impact of pricing, and there is a volume conversion curve that you go on once you price, and then we build back up from there relative to the programming that we have to unlock growth and consumption on the brand, and we do that on a pack by pack and on retailer by retailer, brand by brand.

我的意思是，我們總是說我們要看定價的影響，一旦定價，就會出現一個銷量轉換曲線，然後我們會從那裡重新開始，相對於我們必須解鎖品牌增長和消費的編程，我們逐個包裝、逐個零售商、逐個品牌地進行這一操作。

And that's really what helps to get us to what that number looks like.

這確實有助於我們了解這個數字。

So that's how we derive it.

這就是我們推導它的方法。

The long Easter helps us this year as somewhat of a starting point.

漫長的復活節對我們今年來說是一個不錯的起點。

But those programs that we had on top allow us to get better than that minus one.

但是，我們之前所擁有的那些計劃可以讓我們取得比減一計畫更好的成績。

Understood.

明白了。

And then just in the prepared remarks, there was reference to a timing benefit in the fourth quarter related to inventory valuation.

然後，在準備好的評論中，提到了第四季度與庫存估價相關的時機效益。

Just any help quantifying this?

有任何幫助可以量化這個嗎？

And then, what drove this and whether this has any impact on 2025 at all?

那麼，是什麼推動了這一趨勢，以及這是否會對 2025 年產生影響？

Yeah.

是的。

The impact was about $40 million, and it's really related to our new ERP system, which has a much finer allocation of cost between inventory and the P&L based on what we sell.

影響約為4000萬美元，這與我們的新 ERP 系統確實有關，該系統根據我們的銷售情況在庫存和損益表之間進行更精細的成本分配。

And so it's sort of a better system.

所以這是一個更好的系統。

With that system and that precision comes a little bit more variability. So as we go through the quarters, we may see a little bit more of that movement than we had in the past, but it's not going to be material.

有了該系統和這種精確度，變化性就會更大一些。因此，當我們回顧各個季度時，我們可能會看到比過去更多的這種變動，但這並不具有實質意義。

And I wouldn't -- we're not setting our models differently based on that.

我不會——我們不會基於此設定不同的模型。

Jim Salera, Stephens.

吉姆·薩萊拉、史蒂芬斯。

In the prepared remarks, you called out acceleration on the sweets portfolio and some successes with the SHAQ-A-LICIOUS Gummies and Jolly Rancher.

在準備好的演講中，您呼籲加速糖果產品組合的發展，並指出 SHAQ-A-LICIOUS Gummies 和 Jolly Rancher 取得了一些成功。

Just in thinking about the drivers of potential upside on the portfolio, can you maybe talk about innovation on the non-chocolate portion of the portfolio and how that will play into some of the advertising efforts you have rolling out this year?

在思考投資組合潛在上漲的驅動因素時，您能否談談投資組合中非巧克力部分的創新，以及這將如何影響您今年推出的一些廣告活動？

Yeah, absolutely.

是的，絕對是如此。

So as you know, in Q3, we launched in the marketplace a lot of new innovation, including Jolly Rancher innovation, heightened support, SHAQ-A-LICIOUS Gummies, and then in Q4, we actually purchased Sour Strips.

如您所知，在第三季度，我們在市場上推出了許多新產品，包括 Jolly Rancher 創新、增強支援、SHAQ-A-LICIOUS 軟糖，然後在第四季度，我們實際購買了 Sour Strips。

So all of the things on sweets were new as of kind of mid to late Q3 into the balance of the year.

因此，從第三季中後期到今年年底，所有關於糖果的東西都是新的。

So as you look at the year of '25, we're going to get a carryover benefit, a pretty strong carryover benefit from those items.

因此，當您回顧 25 年時，我們將從這些項目中獲得結轉收益，相當可觀的結轉收益。

In addition to that, we've also recently launched JR Freeze Dried and that's hit the marketplace.

除此之外，我們最近也推出了 JR Freeze Dried 產品，而且已經上市。

So that is new news on innovation and sweets for this year.

這就是今年有關創新和糖果的新消息。

We have new news coming later this year that we haven't yet announced, and then we obviously have distribution and velocity opportunities on Sour Strips as well.

我們今年稍後會有尚未宣布的新消息，而且我們顯然在 Sour Strips 上也有分銷和速度機會。

So we have a continued -- nice lineup of continued news and opportunity on sweets as we enter the year and go through the year.

因此，在進入新的一年並度過新的一年之際，我們將持續提供一系列有關糖果的精彩新聞和機會。

Great.

偉大的。

And then, when you have your conversations with retail partners on expanding the sweets selection, is that often incremental space that you didn't have before?

然後，當您與零售合作夥伴討論擴大糖果選擇時，是否經常會出現以前沒有的增量空間？

Or is it kind of swapping pieces of the chocolate for sweets, especially in like the immediate consumption, occasion, cash wrap, [and in those areas]?

還是用巧克力來代替糖果，特別是在即時消費、場合、收銀台（以及在那些地方）？

Yeah.

是的。

So we are under-indexed in sweets.

因此，我們的甜食指數偏低。

We are underdeveloped.

我們尚不發達。

So for us, it is an opportunity to be gaining incremental distribution, incremental consumer occasions.

因此對我們來說，這是一個獲得增量分銷和增量消費場合的機會。

So we do look at that as helping us in that way.

因此我們確實認為這能以這樣的方式幫助我們。

It also helps us with our seasons portfolio where we're already quite strong, but being able to get some of these innovative sweets components into seasons is a new opportunity there as well.

它還可以幫助我們完善我們已經相當強大的季節性產品組合，但能夠將一些創新的糖果成分融入到季節產品中也是一個新的機會。

Leah Jordan, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的利亞喬丹 (Leah Jordan)。

I wanted to ask about the market share declines in everyday chocolate that you noted in the prepared remarks.

我想問一下您在準備好的演講中提到的日常巧克力市場份額的下降。

First, curious how that trended versus last quarter and throughout the quarter.

首先，好奇與上一季以及整個季度相比，這一趨勢如何。

And then, as you think about potential drivers for improvement going forward, how much do you think is dependent on an improvement just in the cyclical impulse in the C-store channel versus the need to drive bigger innovation like you're planning, because competition and newness has just been intensified from smaller players?

然後，當您考慮未來改進的潛在驅動力時，您認為在多大程度上依賴 C-store 管道週期性衝動的改進，還是像您計劃的那樣推動更大的創新的需求，因為來自小型企業的競爭和新鮮感已經加劇？

Sure.

當然。

So I'd say, the everyday is getting better.

所以我想說，每天都會變得越來越好。

We have significant improvement with sweets, and we've also seen significant improvement in take-home.

我們的甜食銷售有了顯著改善，帶回家的甜食銷售也有了顯著改善。

Some of those improvements were driven by strength in the category. And certainly, as we lap some of the retailer-specific pressures that we had the prior year, and then we lapped through those and got back to a normalized position relative to distribution and merch, that was very helpful.

其中一些改進是由該類別的優勢推動的。當然，當我們克服了前一年面臨的一些零售商特定的壓力，然後我們克服了這些壓力並回到了分銷和商品方面的正常狀態時，這非常有幫助。

Innovation is an important lever, and we are looking across each of our pack types to make sure that we've got that right innovation as there is increased competition for shelf space, having the right innovation within each pack type is incredibly important.

創新是一個重要的槓桿，我們正在研究每種包裝類型，以確保我們擁有正確的創新，因為貨架空間的競爭日益激烈，在每種包裝類型中擁有正確的創新非常重要。

So we have dialed up some of the innovation levels and take-home this year, and we think that that will result in TDPs and growth.

因此，我們今年提高了一些創新水平和成果，我們認為這將帶來 TDP 和成長。

Next year, really, the share outlook is driven by continued acceleration in suites, continued strength in seasons and improvement in every day.

明年，股價前景確實受到套房銷售持續加速、季節持續走強和日常狀況改善的推動。

We do have the biggest innovation that we have had ever on REESE'S coming to the marketplace.

我們確實擁有自 REESE'S 上市以來最大的創新。

And so more news to come on that later this year.

今年晚些時候還會有更多相關新聞。

And we'll continue to work with our commercial partners to improve trends in the instant consumable business.

我們將繼續與我們的商業夥伴合作，改善即食食品業務的趨勢。

That's an area of the portfolio that is driven by some of these macro pressures and the consumer pressure, particularly in convenience store class of trade.

這是投資組合中受一些宏觀壓力和消費者壓力推動的領域，尤其是在便利商店類貿易方面。

So there's a little bit of downward category pressure there.

因此，那裡存在一點點下行壓力。

We see more momentum and upside on the other areas, but we continue to focus on share there as well.

我們看到其他領域有更多發展動能和上升空間，但我們也將繼續關注這些領域的份額。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then, maybe just following up on that C-store discussion.

然後，也許只是跟進 C 商店的討論。

It sounded like last quarter, you were going to invest more in variety brands and lean into your gold standard planogram.

聽起來上個季度你打算在各種品牌上投入更多，並傾向於黃金標準規劃圖。

So it sounded like the channel is still soft, but are you starting to see any improvement as you kind of implement those plans?

所以聽起來頻道似乎仍然很疲軟，但是在實施這些計劃時，你是否開始看到任何改善？

So we have seen improvement.

因此我們看到了進步。

On our variety portfolio, we saw improvements by about three points in our trends from Q3 to Q4.

在我們的品種組合中，我們看到從第三季到第四季的趨勢改善了約三個百分點。

They are still pressured, but we are seeing some significant improvement.

他們仍然面臨壓力，但我們看到了一些明顯的改善。

And we are in the process of ramping up that gold standard.

我們正在逐步提高金本位。

So that takes some time to implement.

所以這需要一些時間來實現。

So you sell it in.

所以你就把它賣掉。

It does require a reset by the retailers, so we're continuing to monitor that, but I have a lot of confidence based on the places where we've tested that.

它確實需要零售商進行重置，因此我們會繼續監控，但根據我們測試過的地方，我對它很有信心。

It has provided 2x the impact as the old planogram.

它提供的影響力是舊規劃圖的兩倍。

So we're confident in those lifts.

所以我們對這些電梯很有信心。

And we'll continue to see those hit the marketplace as we progress through the year.

隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續看到這些產品進入市場。

More of that upside will come closer to midyear into the second half.

到今年中期及下半年，這種上漲趨勢將會進一步顯現。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可·拉弗里，派珀·桑德勒。

You mentioned in your prepared remarks you're seeing cocoa end users adapting through reformulation.

您在準備好的發言中提到，您看到可可最終用戶正在透過重新配方來適應。

Could you maybe touch on what exactly you're seeing there and if you are reformulating yourselves as well?

您能否談談您到底看到了什麼以及您是否也在重新表達自己？

So we have, over the last several years, always looking at where there may be some opportunities on formulation, but it's critically important we maintain the taste profile and the specialness of our iconic brands.

因此，在過去幾年裡，我們一直在尋找配方方面的機會，但至關重要的是，我們要保持我們標誌性品牌的口味和特色。

And so it's a place we look at.

這是我們要關注的地方。

We test. And in some parts of our portfolio, over time, we've made some changes.

我們測試。隨著時間的推移，我們對投資組合的某些部分做出了一些改變。

We'll continue to look in that space.

我們將繼續關注這一領域。

And I would say, in all the changes that we've made thus far, there has been no consumer impact whatsoever.

我想說，到目前為止我們所做的所有改變都沒有對消費者產生任何影響。

As you can imagine, even on the smallest brand in the portfolio, if we were to make a change, there's extensive consumer testing.

你可以想像，即使是對產品組合中最小的品牌，如果我們要做出改變，也會進行廣泛的消費者測試。

So it's an area we'll look at, but we definitely want to make sure that we're focused on the consumer.

所以這是我們會關注的領域，但我們肯定要確保我們關注的是消費者。

We have been seeing some increased global demand across the market for cocoa alternative.

我們看到全球市場對可可替代品的需求增加。

So we are seeing some folks who are pressured who perhaps have the opportunity to switch to cocoa butter alternatives.

因此，我們看到一些面臨壓力的人也許有機會轉而使用可可脂替代品。

Obviously, we do that where possible, but we're pretty precious about the brands and what they stand for with consumers.

顯然，我們會盡可能地做到這一點，但我們非常珍惜品牌以及它們對消費者的意義。

But yes, it does create some demand destruction in the market as we see others do that.

但確實，正如我們看到其他人所做的那樣，它確實會破壞市場需求。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And you touched on something I don't think you've mentioned before, which is the potential for cellular agriculture being a long-term solution.

您提到了我認為您之前沒有提到過的事情，那就是細胞農業成為長期解決方案的潛力。

How far on the horizon -- how far off is that?

地平線有多遠──有多遠？

Is that something to kind of consider as a potential substitute?

這是否可以視為一種潛在的替代品？

How should we just think about what role, if any, that might play over the next, say, few years?

我們應該怎麼思考它在未來幾年可能會發揮什麼作用（如果有的話）？

It's something we're watching very closely.

我們正在密切關注此事。

I don't think it is necessarily near term, but I think it can be a game changer, and it's certainly getting a lot of investment right now.

我認為這不一定是短期的，但我認為它可以改變遊戲規則，而且它現在肯定會得到很多投資。

So I think it's something to watch.

所以我認為這是值得關注的事情。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的克里斯凱裡 (Chris Carey)。

Just first, Steve, the implied gross margin for Q1, I think it's like 41% and maybe roughly 35% for the remainder of the year.

首先，史蒂夫，我認為第一季的隱含毛利率是 41%，而今年剩餘時間的隱含毛利率可能在 35% 左右。

Is it fair to assume that the core differential there is cocoa inflation?

可以合理地假設那裡的核心差異是可可通膨嗎？

Or are there other considerations that we should be thinking about?

或者我們還應該考慮其他因素嗎？

Yeah, for the first half, we'll be down less than 500 basis points more than that, like we talked about earlier in the second half.

是的，上半年我們的降幅將不超過 500 個基點，就像我們在下半年早些時候談到的那樣。

And yes, the answer to your question, cocoa's really the biggest component, the inflation in the other areas, some of the other commodities, but also labor, warehousing, and so forth, those things are more evenly paced over the year.

是的，你問題的答案是，可可確實是最大的組成部分，其他領域的通貨膨脹，其他一些商品，還有勞動力、倉儲等等，這些因素在一年內的變化都比較均勻。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then, Michele, obviously, you announced plans to transition out of your role, which is exciting.

然後，米歇爾，顯然，你宣布了轉變角色的計劃，這令人興奮。

Can you maybe provide any more color or just context on the search process, timing, and the sort of capabilities that you would be looking for as an organization?

您能否提供更多關於搜尋過程、時間安排以及您作為一個組織所尋求的能力的資訊或背景資訊？

Sure.

當然。

So we've had a framework for long-term succession in place always, as companies always do.

因此，我們一直都有一個長期繼任框架，就像其他公司一樣。

Now that I have announced a firm date for my retirement, the search process is actively underway as that is appropriate.

現在我已經宣布了退休的確切日期，並且正在積極地進行適當的退休搜索工作。

We will conduct a very robust search process led by a search committee on the Board.

我們將在董事會搜尋委員會的領導下進行非常嚴格的搜索流程。

Certainly, we will be recognizing and paying attention to the fast-evolving industry and world that we are all living in and experiencing today and being very selective to bring on board somebody who has the right skills, experience, qualifications, and people focus to allow us to win during this environment.

當然，我們將認識並關注我們今天所生活和經歷的快速發展的行業和世界，並精心挑選擁有合適技能、經驗、資質和以人為本的人才，使我們在這樣的環境中取得成功。

So I'm confident we will find the right successor and I'm working closely with the Board on that to ensure the right selection and a seamless transition.

因此，我相信我們會找到合適的繼任者，而且我正與董事會密切合作，以確保正確的選擇和順利過渡。

But I am absolutely 100% laser-focused in the interim on delivering this '25 plan, continuing to execute our transformation, and making sure I'm positioning the company for our next phase of growth.

但在此期間，我絕對會 100% 專注於實現這個 25 計劃，繼續執行我們的轉型，並確保公司為下一階段的成長做好準備。

Rob Dickerson, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的羅伯‧迪克森 (Rob Dickerson)。

Great.

偉大的。

I guess, just around '26, maybe it's a question more for Steve.

我想，大概是 26 年左右，也許這對史蒂夫來說是一個問題。

Michele, you can chime in.

米歇爾，你可以加入討論。

I guess, kind of what I'm hearing today is hopefully the price, kind of, comes down, maybe mid-crop comes in okay, supply-demand dynamics start to settle, maybe demand weakens a little bit, so it kind of pulls it down.

我想，我今天聽到的是希望價格能夠下降，也許中期作物成熟，供需動態開始穩定，也許需求會稍微減弱，所以價格會有所下降。

And I think the direct comment or the line in the prepared remarks, right, then hopefully as you get to '26, you get kind of more balanced top- and bottom-line growth.

我認為直接的評論或準備好的評論中的說法是，對的，那麼希望當你到達26年時，你會獲得更平衡的頂線和底線增長。

But then, Steve, we kind of heard you also kind of mention on algo. So I'm just trying to gauge a little bit better how are you kind of feel out '26. Is it like -- yes, clearly, if cocoa comes down a bunch, then our earnings can go up a bunch.

但是，史蒂夫，我們聽到你也提到了演算法。所以我只是想更了解一下你對 26 年的感受。是的，很明顯，如果可可價格大幅下降，那麼我們的收入就會大幅增加。

If it comes down some, then really what we're hoping for is more on algo growth, right?

如果它下降一些，那麼我們真正希望的是演算法更多地增長，對嗎？

Because once you have a year like this year, such that absolute earnings are so far down, to me, kind of the core question is, okay, we could be back on algo growth, but is there kind of a scenario that has some decent probability around it such that you could be way above on algo growth?

因為一旦您遇到像今年這樣的一年，絕對收益就會大幅下降，對我來說，核心問題是，好吧，我們可能會回到演算法增長，但是否存在某種情景，在其周圍有相當大的可能性，使您的演算法增長可能遠高於此？

And kind of try to get back more of those absolute earnings?

並嘗試收回更多的絕對收益？

That's all I have.

這就是我的所有了。

Sure.

當然。

Yeah.

是的。

So we see a path even at these cocoa prices to EPS growth for '26, again, on the back of some aggressive actions that we talked about earlier that we're framing for execution, depending on what we see, particularly in the first half of this year.

因此，即使在目前的可可價格下，我們也看到了 26 年每股收益增長的道路，這再次得益於我們之前談到的一些積極行動，我們正在製定執行計劃，具體取決於我們所看到的情況，特別是今年上半年的情況。

And then I think, there's an opportunity for outsized growth if we get some help from cocoa and we see cocoa start to back track.

然後我認為，如果我們得到可可的一些幫助並且我們看到可可開始回落，那麼就有機會實現超額增長。

So those are kind of our operating assumptions.

這些就是我們的營運假設。

That's what we mean when we say on algo. Or when we say that we want to see balanced growth for next year, that's what we're shooting for.

這就是我們說演算法時的意思。或者當我們說我們希望看到明年平衡成長時，這就是我們所追求的。

Okay.

好的。

And that makes sense.

這是有道理的。

And then, I guess, just quickly, while I fully respect that you I don't think ever talk about your hedging practices, is it fair to assume that where cocoa sits today, that maybe you give it a little bit more time before you start to really actively hedge '26?

然後，我想，很快地，雖然我完全尊重你，但我認為你永遠不會談論你的對沖做法，是否可以公平地假設，就目前可可的狀況而言，也許你會給它多一點時間，然後再開始真正積極地對沖'26？

And I think, you kind of vaguely touched on that, right?

我認為您有點模糊地提到了這一點，對嗎？

We'll see kind of how it plays out.

我們將看看事情會如何發展。

But if you do think it comes down, my assumption would be you kind of wait a bit before you start to hedge.

但如果你確實認為它會下降，我的假設是你會等待一段時間再開始對沖。

Yeah, we can't comment too much on the timing of the plan for '26 hedging for competitive reasons.

是的，出於競爭原因，我們不能對 26 年對沖計劃的時間表發表太多評論。

But we've got a great team.

但我們有一支出色的團隊。

They're very close to what's happening in the cocoa markets and what's happening on exchange, off exchange, and other innovative solutions.

他們非常了解可可市場以及交易所內、交易所外和其他創新解決方案的動態。

And so, we're going to continue to take advantage of that.

因此，我們將繼續利用這一點。

We've got the best cocoa traders out there working this.

我們擁有最優秀的可可貿易商來從事這項工作。

So we're going to leave it in their hands, and we'll get more information as the year progresses.

因此我們將把這個問題留給他們，隨著時間的推移，我們將獲得更多資訊。

John Baumgartner, Mizuho Securities.

瑞穗證券的約翰‧鮑姆加特納 (John Baumgartner)。

Michele, I wanted to come back to Alexia's question on the US chocolate category, specifically.

米歇爾，我想具體回答一下亞歷克西亞關於美國巧克力類別的問題。

And in 2024, volume was down about 5%.

到 2024 年，交易量將下降約 5%。

And now it's a little bit worse than 2023, even though pricing in 2024 was about half the magnitude.

現在的情況比 2023 年還要糟糕一些，儘管 2024 年的價格大約是一半。

And it sounds as though the GLP-1s are not a big driver, but that health and wellness may still be having some impact, I guess, independently.

聽起來好像 GLP-1 並不是一個重要的驅動因素，但我想，健康和保健可能仍然會獨立地產生一些影響。

So how would you bucket the factors driving chocolate declines at this point between health and wellness, any shift into non-chocolate confection versus savory snacks or maybe just outright demand destruction from prices?

那麼，您如何區分目前導致巧克力銷量下降的因素：健康和保健、轉向非巧克力糖果而非鹹味零食，或只是價格直接導致需求下降？

It feels like there's a lot going on simultaneously.

感覺好像有很多事情同時發生。

Yeah.

是的。

So I'd say, there is a lot going on.

所以我想說，有很多事情發生。

So I would start and say, if I think about the broad confection category, first of all, sweets has really been a high-growth area.

因此，我首先要說的是，如果我考慮廣泛的糖果類別，首先，糖果確實是一個高成長領域。

So there's been some mix that's been evolving there.

因此那裡已經出現了一些混合體。

Sweets delivers on a different [pallet] experience, sweets has a value component to it.

糖果帶來不同的[托盤]體驗，糖果本身俱有價值成分。

So that's been one factor impacting the overall category and certainly having an impact on chocolate.

所以這是影響整個類別的一個因素，並且肯定會對巧克力產生影響。

And that's been in place for a while, that's been a longer trend, but continues to be there.

這種情況已經存在了一段時間，是一個長期趨勢，但仍會存在。

I think, we've seen a lot of channel evolution. So there's been some pressure in some of the primary channels where a lot of chocolate is sold, there is like convenience.

我認為，我們已經看到了很多管道的演變。因此，一些銷售大量巧克力的主要管道面臨一些壓力，例如便利性。

And then there's been some growth in some of the unmeasured channels that have traditionally not been as strong across mainstream chocolate. And so we're shifting our focuses to really accommodate that.

然後，一些傳統上在主流巧克力中表現不那麼強勁的未測量管道也出現了一些增長。因此，我們正在轉變重點來真正適應這一點。

And the overall category growth is really strong in those places, and that's an opportunity for us and also, I think, for the category.

這些地方的整體類別成長非常強勁，我認為這對我們來說是一個機會，而且我認為這對該類別也是如此。

I think, the consumer focus on health and wellness is also a continuation. I don't see it as a massive change.

我認為，消費者對於健康和保健的關注也是一種延續。我不認為這是一個巨大的改變。

And certainly, we're seeing really nice growth on our zero sugar line of products and also our protein line of products, both of which we put a heightened focus on growing, and we see a lot of opportunity on those going forward.

當然，我們看到零糖產品線和蛋白質產品線都取得了良好的成長，我們對這兩條產品線的成長給予了高度重視，並且我們看到了未來的許多機會。

David Palmer, Evercore ISI.

大衛·帕爾默（David Palmer），Evercore ISI。

I wanted to ask you about maybe some big picture growth bucket questions.

我想問您一些關於宏觀成長桶的問題。

I mean, primarily, I'm curious about seasons and how you're thinking about that this year.

我的意思是，我主要對季節以及你今年對此的看法感到好奇。

It's been a greater area for growth.

這是一個更大的成長領域。

Some tough comparisons maybe have been lapped at this point from COVID.

此時，一些艱難的比較可能已經因 COVID 而變得難以進行。

I'm wondering how you're sort of budgeting and forecasting seasons as a grower this year.

我想知道您作為種植者今年是如何預算和預測季節的。

And then, if there's any other commentary from a channel perspective about how you're thinking this year might play out, convenience stores also had sort of a post-COVID lack of recovery that I think was notable and I'm wondering how you're thinking about that channel and any other insights.

然後，如果您從通路角度對今年的情況有什麼看法，那麼便利商店在疫情後也缺乏復甦，我認為這是值得注意的，我想知道您如何看待該管道以及其他見解。

Yeah.

是的。

So we're expecting strength in seasons this year.

因此，我們期待今年的賽季表現強勁。

We've been pretty consistently doing very well during the seasons.

我們在各個賽季中的表現一直非常出色。

I think, there's a very strong and emotional component with consumers that makes them want to participate in seasons regardless of what may be going on in the macro environment.

我認為，消費者身上有一種非常強烈的情感因素，使得他們願意參與季節變化中，而不管宏觀環境如何。

And they love their brands that have been part of their traditions and rituals over the years with their families.

他們熱愛自己的品牌，因為多年來，這些品牌已經成為他們家庭傳統和禮儀的一部分。

This year, Easter is advantage being the late Easter, so that elongates the season, and we expect strong growth.

今年，復活節的優勢在於它來得晚，因此復活節季節被延長，我們預計會出現強勁增長。

We expect to gain share there.

我們希望在那裡獲得份額。

And we also continue to believe that we'll do well in the other seasons.

我們也繼續相信在其他賽季也會表現出色。

As you know, performance in the prior year in a season helps to set up success in the following year and we feel good about what we delivered in the seasons this year that give us a good foundation as well going into '25.

如你所知，前一年賽季的表現有助於為下一年的成功奠定基礎，我們對今年賽季的表現感到很滿意，這為我們進入25年打下了良好的基礎。

And then any comment on convenience as a channel?

那麼對於通路的便利性您有何評論？

Do you think that that will be in line with your forecast broadly?

您認為這與您的預測大致一致嗎？

Or what's your thoughts there?

或者您有什麼想法？

Yeah, I think that convenience will absolutely be in line with our forecast.

是的，我認為便利性絕對符合我們的預測。

We are continuing to forecast some pressure in that channel until we see it stabilize more.

我們將繼續預測該管道將面臨一些壓力，直到我們看到它更加穩定。

So we'll lap some parts of that pressure.

因此我們會對部分壓力進行重疊。

So that will be a help, lapping it about the summer time frame. So continued softness until we see that lap.

因此，這將會有所幫助，並圍繞夏季時間框架進行討論。因此持續的柔軟直到我們看到那一圈。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

現在您可以斷開您的線路。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。