好時 (HSY) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to the Hershey Company third-quarter 2024 earnings Q&A session.

    您好,歡迎參加好時公司 2024 年第三季財報問答環節。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    提醒一下,本次會議正在錄製中。

  • It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Anoori Naughton, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

    現在我很高興向您介紹主持人,投資者關係高級總監 Anoori Naughton。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • You may begin.

    你可以開始了。

  • Anoori Naughton - Investor Relations

    Anoori Naughton - Investor Relations

  • Good morning, everyone.

    大家早安。

  • Thank you for joining us today for Hershey Company's third quarter 2024 earnings Q&A session.

    感謝您今天參加我們好時公司 2024 年第三季財報問答環節。

  • I hope everyone has had the chance to read our press release and listen to the prerecorded management remarks, both of which are available on our website.

    我希望每個人都有機會閱讀我們的新聞稿並聆聽預先錄製的管理層講話,這兩者都可以在我們的網站上找到。

  • In addition, we have posted a transcript of the prerecorded remarks.

    此外,我們也發布了預先錄製的發言稿。

  • At the conclusion of today's live Q&A session, we will also post a transcript and audio replay of this call.

    在今天的現場問答環節結束時,我們還將發布本次通話的文字記錄和音訊重播。

  • Please note that during today's Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties.

    請注意,在今天的問答環節中,我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受到各種風險和不確定性的影響。

  • These statements, including expectations and assumptions regarding the company's future operations financial performance.

    這些陳述包括有關公司未來營運財務表現的預期和假設。

  • Actual results could differ materially from those projected.

    實際結果可能與預測有重大差異。

  • The company undertakes no obligation to update these statements based on subsequent events.

    本公司不承擔根據後續事件更新這些聲明的義務。

  • A detailed listing of such risks and uncertainties can be found in today's press release and the company's SEC fillings.

    此類風險和不確定性的詳細清單可以在今天的新聞稿和公司向 SEC 提交的文件中找到。

  • Finally, please note that we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe provide useful information for investors.

    最後,請注意,我們可能會參考某些我們認為為投資者提供有用資訊的非公認會計準則財務指標。

  • The presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP.

    此資訊的呈現不應被孤立地考慮或作為根據 GAAP 呈現的財務資訊的替代品。

  • Reconciliations for the GAAP results are included in today's press release.

    GAAP 結果的調整包含在今天的新聞稿中。

  • Joining me today are Hershey's Chairman and CEO, Michele Buck, and Hershey's Senior Vice President and CFO, Steve Voskuil.

    今天與我一起出席的有好時公司董事長兼首席執行官米歇爾·巴克 (Michele Buck) 和好時公司高級副總裁兼首席財務官史蒂夫·沃斯庫爾 (Steve Voskuil)。

  • With that, I will turn it over to the operator for the first question.

    至此,我將把第一個問題交給接線員。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Ken Goldman with JPMorgan

    (操作員指示)肯‧戈德曼(Ken Goldman)與摩根大通

  • Ken Goldman - Analyst

    Ken Goldman - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning and thank you.

    你好,早安,謝謝你。

  • I wanted to ask a couple of questions around the comment regarding top line being roughly on Algo for next year.

    我想就明年 Algo 上的頂線的評論提出幾個問題。

  • The first question is Street is looking for a pretty decent step-up in your realized price for next year.

    第一個問題是,Street 正在尋求明年實現價格的相當大的提升。

  • I wanted to make sure that's the right way to think it?

    我想確定這是正確的思考方式嗎?

  • And then the second question is, is it reasonable for us to assume that your guidance will factor typical or historical one-for-one elasticity on certain products that you've mentioned in the past?

    第二個問題是,我們假設您的指導將考慮您過去提到的某些產品的典型或歷史一對一彈性,這是否合理?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Steve, do you want to take that?

    史蒂夫,你想接受這個嗎?

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • On the reference to the algorithm, we're talking about our long-term algorithm.

    在提到演算法時,我們談論的是我們的長期演算法。

  • So that's two to four on the top.

    所以上面有兩到四個。

  • So that's the reference point that we're looking to.

    這就是我們正在尋找的參考點。

  • In terms of realized price, all-in, we'd expect pricing next year to year to look a lot like this year.

    就實現價格而言,總而言之,我們預計明年的定價與今年非常相似。

  • As the price increases, we took this flow through.

    隨著價格的上漲,我們接受了這種流動。

  • Obviously, we'll work to make sure we're competitive.

    顯然,我們將努力確保我們具有競爭力。

  • And work with retailers to make sure we get good execution of that.

    並與零售商合作,確保我們得到良好的執行。

  • And then from an elasticity standpoint, we expect historical elasticity, which is what we've seen as we progressed further through this year.

    然後從彈性的角度來看,我們預期歷史彈性,這就是我們在今年取得進一步進展時所看到的。

  • Ken Goldman - Analyst

    Ken Goldman - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • I’ll pass it on.

    我會把它傳遞下去。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

  • Andrew Lazar - Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - Analyst

  • Good morning Michele and Steve.

    早上好,米歇爾和史蒂夫。

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning

    早安

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Hi, Andrew.

    嗨,安德魯。

  • Andrew Lazar - Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - Analyst

  • I guess, I want to put all things cocoa sort of aside for the moment and focus again on core underlying trends.

    我想,我想暫時把可可的所有東西都放在一邊,再次關注核心的潛在趨勢。

  • What would you expect core, I guess, chocolate market share trends to look like as you exit this year?

    我想,當您今年退出時,您預計巧克力市場份額的核心趨勢會是什麼樣子?

  • Can market share get back to stable?

    市佔率能否恢復穩定?

  • Or do you think it takes maybe more into the first half of next year?

    還是您認為明年上半年可能需要更多時間?

  • And what should we be looking for in the data, I guess, as we move through the fourth quarter?

    我想,當我們進入第四季時,我們應該在數據中尋找什麼?

  • And I ask because, obviously, if we're supposed to be looking through the anomalous cocoa cost inflation in '25 to potentially a year of maybe outsized growth in '26 as costs normalize.

    我問這個問題是因為,顯然,如果我們應該審視 25 年異常的可可成本通膨,那麼隨著成本正常化,26 年可能會大幅成長。

  • It's really this underlying share trends that obviously are most important.

    顯然,這種潛在的股票趨勢確實是最重要的。

  • And in core chocolate, we're going on, I think, like two years of some share weakness.

    我認為,在核心巧克力方面,我們的股價將持續兩年疲軟。

  • So that's really what I'm trying to get at.

    這就是我真正想要達到的目的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Absolutely.

    絕對地。

  • Thanks, Andrew.

    謝謝,安德魯。

  • Yes, let me step back and talk a little bit about category and market share trends.

    是的,讓我退一步談談品類和市佔率趨勢。

  • So first of all, we continue to feel really good about the category resiliency that we've seen consistently growing about -- around that 2% range, which is what it's been historically and continuing to outpace other snack categories.

    首先,我們仍然對品類的彈性感到非常滿意,我們看到該品類的彈性一直在增長——大約在 2% 的範圍內,這是歷史上的水平,並且繼續超過其他零食品類。

  • So we think that's a really good starting point for us.

    所以我們認為這對我們來說是一個非常好的起點。

  • We do see us ending the year with greater momentum than we have had particularly if we look at some of the green shoots that we called out in the script relative to sweets and the acceleration that.

    我們確實看到我們以比以往更大的勢頭結束了這一年,特別是如果我們看看我們在劇本中提到的與糖果相關的一些萌芽和加速。

  • That innovation that we launched in the marketplace is really taking hold, driving takeaway and also increasing share with each four-week period that goes by, we had a great Halloween and expect that we will have one share in Halloween.

    我們在市場上推出的創新確實佔據了主導地位,推動了外賣,並且隨著每四個星期的時間過去,份額也在增加,我們度過了一個愉快的萬聖節,並期望我們將在萬聖節佔有一份份額。

  • SkinnyPop, certainly, we called for a reversal in trend.

    SkinnyPop,當然,我們呼籲趨勢逆轉。

  • We've seen that in the past four weeks.

    我們在過去四個星期已經看到了這一點。

  • Innovation remains strong.

    創新依然強勁。

  • And then we have a few labs that we are starting to get into that period that lessens the pressure that we're facing.

    然後我們有一些實驗室開始進入那個時期,以減輕我們面臨的壓力。

  • We had spoken before about reductions in merge the key retailers.

    我們之前曾談到減少主要零售商的合併。

  • Last 12 weeks, we've seen over 2% growth there.

    過去 12 週,我們看到成長率超過 2%。

  • So, as we look forward, we feel good about a lot of those things, combined with as we get into next year, a longer Easter other headwinds that are bit less relative to SNAP, Mexico drinks and some of the retailer inventory issues.

    因此,當我們展望未來時,我們對很多事情感覺良好,再加上明年復活節更長,其他不利因素相對於 SNAP、墨西哥飲料和一些零售商庫存問題要小一些。

  • So, I would say it's going to be, I would say, a gradual improvement that we do think will build both in terms of dollars and percent.

    所以,我想說,這將是一個逐步的改進,我們確實認為這將在美元和百分比方面取得進展。

  • And probably the piece of the portfolio that will remain under pressure will be instant consumable because convenience stores, we really saw some of the pressure in that channel start midyear.

    投資組合中仍將面臨壓力的部分可能將是即時消費品,因為便利商店,我們確實看到該通路在年中開始面臨一些壓力。

  • So we think it will take us through the first half to get through that.

    所以我們認為我們需要度過上半場才能度過難關。

  • The other pieces of the portfolio we're expecting to continue to see recovery.

    我們預計投資組合的其他部分將繼續復甦。

  • Andrew Lazar - Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • And then real quick, just a new head of North America Confectionery.

    然後很快,北美糖果公司就來了一位新負責人。

  • And maybe just a little bit about what you see him bringing to the table and where strategy could well change or is it more a continuation with just more sort of energy around it.

    也許只是一點關於你看到他帶來了什麼以及策略可以很好地改變的地方,或者它更像是一種延續,只是圍繞它有更多的能量。

  • Just trying to get a better sense for that.

    只是想對此有更好的認識。

  • Thanks so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, absolutely.

    是的,絕對是。

  • So obviously, Mike is a really strong exec coming to us from PepsiCo.

    顯然,麥克是一位從百事可樂公司來到我們這裡的非常強大的高階主管。

  • Several things that I think he will bring, number one, always appreciate external perspective and always a good chance to relook what we're doing well, where we can continue to be better.

    我認為他會帶來一些東西,第一,總是欣賞外部視角,總是一個很好的機會來重新審視我們做得好的方面,我們可以繼續做得更好。

  • Secondly, he has a very deep and rich background of being incredibly close to customers and retail.

    其次,他擁有非常深厚和豐富的背景,非常貼近客戶和零售業。

  • And I think that he will significantly that up even further as we go forward into the future to unlock new growth and continue to evolve our portfolio to those channels where consumers are migrating to.

    我認為,隨著我們走向未來,釋放新的成長,並繼續將我們的產品組合發展到消費者正在遷移的管道,他將進一步顯著提升這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

    彼得‧加爾博,美國銀行。

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Steve, in your prepared remarks, you did give a bit of insight on 2025 inflation and that rate expecting to be more of a headwind versus what it was in 2024.

    史蒂夫,在您準備好的演講中,您確實對 2025 年的通膨給出了一些見解,並且預計該通膨率與 2024 年相比將更加不利。

  • But just wondering if you could elaborate.

    但只是想知道你是否可以詳細說明。

  • I think your guidance for this year is high single-digit COGS inflation.

    我認為今年你們的指導是高個位數的銷貨成本通膨。

  • And so when we think about more for next year, is that a low double-digit number, low teens, mid-teens?

    因此,當我們考慮明年的更多情況時,這個數字是低兩位數、低十幾歲還是中十幾歲?

  • Just anything else more you can give us to kind of help as we think about modeling.

    當我們考慮建模時,您可以為我們提供更多幫助。

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Not surprising me the biggest piece is going to be Cocoa.

    毫不奇怪,最大的一塊將是可可。

  • And the year-over-year move will be significant.

    同比變化將是巨大的。

  • You look at the rates that we've been paying for Cocoa this year, we set that back when we set our guidance in February.

    你看看我們今年為可可支付的價格,當我們在二月設定指導時,我們就將其下調了。

  • And so said back then, we're well hedged for 2024.

    當時就說過,我們對 2024 年的風險做好了充分的避險。

  • So the cocoa prices we've been paying this year reflect getting into the market really from earlier this year in preceding.

    因此,我們今年支付的可可價格實際上反映了從今年早些時候進入市場的情況。

  • So now you flash ahead to current pricing and you look at pricing for next year, it's a pretty significant step up.

    因此,現在您可以回顧目前的定價,並考慮明年的定價,這是一個相當重大的進步。

  • And it's not just the cocoa side.

    這不僅僅是可可方面。

  • The cocoa beans of course, the biggest piece, but there's also cocoa butter, coco liquor and some of the other physical derivatives of cocoa that will be inside that inflation.

    可可豆當然是最大的一塊,但還有可可脂、可可液和可可的其他一些物理衍生物,這些都將出現在通貨膨脹中。

  • And so we'll get into a lot more detail on that when we come back in the fourth quarter.

    因此,當我們在第四季度回來時,我們將對此進行更多詳細介紹。

  • But that will be the biggest source of inflation clearly.

    但這顯然將成為通膨的最大來源。

  • I expect we'll see some labor inflation that we'll probably see some other inflation in specialty ingredients and things like that.

    我預計我們會看到一些勞動力通膨,我們可能會看到特殊原料和其他類似產品的通膨。

  • And alongside that, we'll be talking about our plans for productivity and so forth to chip away at some of that inflation, but cocoa and sugar probably are going to be the two biggest pieces.

    除此之外,我們將討論我們的生產力計劃等,以消除部分通貨膨脹,但可可和糖可能將成為兩個最大的部分。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • No, that's helpful.

    不,這很有幫助。

  • We'll wait for February for more detail there.

    我們將等待二月了解更多細節。

  • And then if I can just ask on the gross margin actually in the quarter.

    然後我是否可以詢問該季度的實際毛利率。

  • It seemed like it maybe came in below not only just Street, but maybe your own internal expectations.

    看起來它不僅可能低於街道,而且可能低於你自己的內部期望。

  • And -- just kind of what drove the variance?

    而且——是什麼導致了差異?

  • Is the deleverage piece from volume more than you expected?

    成交量的去槓桿作用是否超乎您的預期?

  • Is it more mix?

    是不是更加混搭了?

  • Just can help us understand what happened there?

    可以幫助我們了解那裡發生了什麼事嗎?

  • Thanks so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • It was below what we were expecting just as we said we're disappointed on the top line, disappointed by the margin performance as well.

    它低於我們的預期,正如我們所說的,我們對營收感到失望,對利潤率表現也感到失望。

  • The biggest piece was the sales flow through and in fact, the sales were down and then the mix of sales, we talked about C-store, for example.

    最大的部分是銷售流量,事實上,銷售額下降了,然後是銷售組合,例如我們談到的便利商店。

  • So there was some negative mix inside the sales delivery that had an impact on gross margin.

    因此,銷售交付中存在一些負面因素,對毛利率產生了影響。

  • And then as you mentioned, we also had some volume deleverage when we have that big of an impact in the quarter.

    正如您所提到的,當我們在本季度產生如此大的影響時,我們也進行了一些數量去槓桿化。

  • So between the sales flow through the mix and the deleverage, those are really the biggest pieces that drove that disappointment.

    因此,在混合銷售流和去槓桿化之間,這些確實是導致失望的最大因素。

  • Peter Galbo - Analyst

    Peter Galbo - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thanks very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Our next question comes from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

    我們的下一個問題來自亞歷克西婭·霍華德和伯恩斯坦的對話。

  • Please proceed with your question.

    請繼續你的問題。

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Alexia?

    亞歷克西婭?

  • Alexia Howard - Analyst

    Alexia Howard - Analyst

  • Hi, there.

    你好呀。

  • Can you hear me okay?

    你聽得到我說話嗎?

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Now we can.

    現在我們可以了。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Alexia Howard - Analyst

    Alexia Howard - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Perfect.

    完美的。

  • Can you bring up the topic of the GLP-1 drugs?

    能談談GLP-1藥物的話題嗎?

  • There seem to be a few data sources now.

    現在似乎有一些資料來源。

  • Obviously, it's early days that are suggesting that maybe mid single-digit percentage of U.S. adults absolutely higher are currently using these.

    顯然,現在還處於早期階段,顯示目前使用這些產品的美國成年人中可能有絕對較高的個位數百分比。

  • That was a little faster than we expected them to be adopted this time last year.

    這比我們去年這個時候預期的採用速度還要快一些。

  • Can I ask how you're going about exploring what these patients need?

    可以問一下您打算如何探索這些患者的需求嗎?

  • How to respond to that whether you're seeing any impact on the chocolate sales at the moment and what the path forward is on that?

    您目前是否看到巧克力銷售受到任何影響,如何應對?

  • And then I have a follow-up.

    然後我有一個後續行動。

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So we would say we're seeing a mild year-on-year impact, I'd say, consistent with what I think we've shared before in line with what we would expect, which I would say is more a gradual impact.

    因此,我們會說,我們看到了輕微的同比影響,這與我認為我們之前分享的內容和我們的預期一致,我想說這更像是一種漸進的影響。

  • We've continued to see multiple sources of data validating that the consumers on those drugs are eating disproportionately less our categories.

    我們繼續看到多個來源的數據證實這些藥物的消費者吃的量遠遠少於我們的類別。

  • I know there's been some mix data, but we've seen a lot on that.

    我知道有一些混合數據,但我們已經看到了很多這方面的數據。

  • So it's in line with what we expect, and we are carefully monitoring that behavior, how it's evolving and certainly understanding what the needs are of those consumers so that as we continue to evolve our portfolio, which we're always doing over time, that are evolving it in a way to make sure that we have the right offerings for those consumers as well.

    因此,這符合我們的預期,我們正在仔細監控這種行為,它是如何演變的,當然也了解這些消費者的需求是什麼,以便隨著我們不斷發展我們的產品組合(我們一直在這樣做) ,我們正在以某種方式對其進行改進,以確保我們也為這些消費者提供合適的產品。

  • Alexia Howard - Analyst

    Alexia Howard - Analyst

  • Many thanks.

    非常感謝。

  • And then a quick follow-up.

    然後快速跟進。

  • You mentioned an increase in competitive activity in the international segment from global competitors confectionary.

    您提到全球糖果競爭對手在國際市場的競爭活動增加。

  • Can you elaborate on that?

    能詳細說明一下嗎?

  • Is that pricing competition?

    這就是價格競爭嗎?

  • Or is there something else going on?

    還是還有其他事情發生?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • And I'll pass it on.

    我會把它傳遞下去。

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • A lot of it has been pricing competition where certain competitors have chosen to really deal back somewhat deeply on price point.

    其中很大一部分是價格競爭,某些競爭對手選擇在價格點上進行真正的深度回擊。

  • And that's in some of the markets where we tend to be a smaller player.

    在某些市場中,我們往往是規模較小的參與者。

  • Yes, and it's a smaller market for us, but it's been intense in those markets where it has occurred.

    是的,這對我們來說是一個較小的市場,但在發生這種情況的市場中,情況非常激烈。

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • We've had pockets of strength.

    我們有一些力量。

  • The UK, Europe winning with Reese's, and I think we're really pleased with the progress, but particularly in Mexico and Brazil, we've seen higher levels of competition, some of which has been price related.

    英國、歐洲憑藉里斯的勝利,我認為我們對進展感到非常滿意,但特別是在墨西哥和巴西,我們看到了更高水準的競爭,其中一些與價格有關。

  • Alexia Howard - Analyst

    Alexia Howard - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • I will pass it on.

    我會把它傳遞下去。

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Moskow with TD Cowen.

    羅伯特·莫斯科和 TD Cowen。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Hi.

    你好。

  • I guess two questions.

    我猜有兩個問題。

  • I don't think I heard you, Michelle, if you felt like 2026 can be an above algo year.

    米歇爾,如果你覺得 2026 年可能是一個高於演算法的年份,我想我沒有聽到你的聲音。

  • I know a competitor of yours is really calling that out based on what they think cocoa costs will do.

    我知道你們的競爭對手確實是根據他們認為可可成本的影響而提出這一點的。

  • So maybe you can give more specifics on how you think that works?

    那麼也許您可以更具體地說明您認為這是如何運作的?

  • And then I also wanted to make sure I understand the comment from Steve on pricing.

    然後我還想確保我理解史蒂夫關於定價的評論。

  • I think you said it's going to look a lot like pricing in 2025 will look like 2024, but you have a high single-digit price increase on chocolate.

    我想你說過 2025 年的定價看起來很像 2024 年的樣子,但巧克力的價格漲幅很高,個位數。

  • So if it looks like before that just looks lower than what I would expect.

    因此,如果它看起來像以前那樣,那麼看起來就比我預期的要低。

  • So maybe I'm wrong there.

    所以也許我錯了。

  • But can you give more clarity?

    但你能說得更清楚一點嗎?

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So I'll hit the 2026.

    所以我會到2026年。

  • So we do feel good that can be on algorithm if cocoa is stable and if cocoa prices really declined, there could be some outsized growth possible, certainly.

    因此,我們確實感覺良好,如果可可穩定,並且如果可可價格確實下降,那麼可以在演算法上實現,當然,可能會出現一些大幅增長。

  • So we're watching the cocoa price carefully, but we are feeling good based on what we believe and see that we would be on algorithm or have some upside.

    因此,我們正在仔細觀察可可價格,但我們感覺良好,因為我們相信並看到我們將在演算法上或有一些上漲空間。

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And on the pricing side, I think the piece is we've taken pricing on about half of our chocolate pounds.

    在定價方面,我認為我們已經對大約一半的巧克力磅進行了定價。

  • And so when you factor that in, it ends up netting out to low mid single-digit pricing in total.

    因此,當你考慮到這一點時,最終的總定價將達到中低個位數。

  • And that's why I say it's largely similar to what we saw this year.

    這就是為什麼我說它與我們今年看到的情況很大程度上相似。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thanks, Rob.

    謝謝,羅布。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

    麥可·萊弗里和派珀·桑德勒。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • Just wanted to understand how you're thinking about marketing spending.

    只是想了解您如何看待行銷支出。

  • Your advertising spending was down slightly, but of course, so were sales.

    您的廣告支出略有下降,但銷售額當然也有所下降。

  • And it wasn't down quite as much as sales.

    而且下降幅度也不如銷售額下降那麼多。

  • So -- on a percent basis, obviously, even in this quarter, that's held up.

    因此,顯然,即使在本季度,從百分比來看,這種情況仍然存在。

  • But you've obviously got a cost-pressured environment is marketing, one of the ways you can have some flexibility with the bottom line?

    但行銷顯然是一個成本壓力很大的環境,這是您可以在盈利方面保持一定靈活性的方法之一嗎?

  • Or how do you think about just protecting that or really trying to protect share as well given the price increases?

    或者考慮到價格上漲,您如何考慮僅僅保護這一點或真正努力保護份額?

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • I'll share some thoughts and I'll ask Steve to as well.

    我會分享一些想法,我也會請史蒂夫分享。

  • So clearly, we continue to believe in the importance of investing in our brands.

    顯然,我們仍然相信投資我們品牌的重要性。

  • We think that's also really important in an environment where prices are where they are.

    我們認為,在價格處於當前水平的環境中,這一點也非常重要。

  • That said, we have really good marketing mix models.

    也就是說,我們有非常好的行銷組合模式。

  • We continually look at generating higher ROIs each year.

    我們不斷尋求每年產生更高的投資報酬率。

  • We hold ourselves to that standard.

    我們堅持這個標準。

  • We are also always looking at things like new media agency RFPs that can drive meaningful productivity.

    我們也一直在關注新媒體機構 RFP 等可以提高生產力的因素。

  • We do have that as we approach 2025.

    臨近 2025 年,我們確實做到了這一點。

  • So we're trying to be very thoughtful about investing where we think it makes sense.

    因此,我們正在努力深思熟慮地在我們認為有意義的地方進行投資。

  • Strategically, there's an area next year that we really want to focus on in terms of incremental investment in our variety brands to really bolster the instant consumable business.

    從策略上講,明年我們確實希望專注於一個領域,即對我們的品種品牌進行增量投資,以真正支持即食消費品業務。

  • Steve, other things you want to add there?

    史蒂夫,您還想添加其他內容嗎?

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes, I would just say Q3, we index a little bit to sales on the way media hits P&L.

    是的,我只想說第三季度,我們根據媒體影響損益表的方式對銷售進行了一些索引。

  • So there's some impact there.

    所以那裡有一些影響。

  • No pullback in terms of supporting our brands.

    在支持我們的品牌方面沒有任何退縮。

  • And as we look to next year, our top priorities are going to be driving top line, driving share, driving consumption and we're going to leverage media as one

    展望明年,我們的首要任務將是推動收入、推動份額、推動消費,我們將利用媒體作為一個整體

  • .

  • And that's not to say we don't want efficiency.

    這並不是說我們不要效率。

  • As Michele said, we're looking to new agency that will drive some efficiency.

    正如米歇爾所說,我們正在尋找能夠提高效率的新機構。

  • We're bringing new tools to bear to make sure that we're allocating that money wisely, but we're absolutely not pulling back.

    我們正在採用新的工具來確保我們明智地分配資金,但我們絕對不會退縮。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • And then just a follow-up on your inventory comments at tighter inventories you had called out as impacting the outlook.

    然後是對您對庫存緊張的評論的跟進,您曾指出庫存緊張影響了前景。

  • Coming into the quarter, you had pointed to a second half inventory restocking that would have been fourth you skewed, I believe, even maybe kind of a four or five-point lift in lease confections in 4Q.

    進入本季度,您曾指出下半年庫存補貨將是您傾斜的第四次,我相信,甚至可能會在第四季度使租賃糖果增加四到五個點。

  • I don't know how specific you can be, but it sounds like that's not coming through as expected.

    我不知道你能說得有多具體,但聽起來好像沒有如預期進行。

  • Can you just give us a sense of maybe how much of the guidance cut is from an inventory reset that isn't materializing the way you had initially expected?

    您能否讓我們了解一下,可能有多少指導削減是由於庫存重置而導致的,而​​庫存重置並未按照您最初預期的方式實現?

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Yes, we still expect in the fourth quarter to see a mid-single digit.

    是的,我們仍然預期第四季會出現中個位數的成長。

  • If I kind of say all shipping timing impacts, it's still going to be pretty significant in the fourth quarter.

    如果我說所有運輸時間的影響,那麼第四季的影響仍然相當大。

  • If I take a look at full year guidance, the impact of all of these inventory moves is probably about a 0.5 point drag on the adjustment that we made.

    如果我看一下全年指引,所有這些庫存變動的影響可能會對我們所做的調整產生大約 0.5 個百分點的拖累。

  • Just to give some perspective.

    只是為了提供一些觀點。

  • And I think we acknowledge this is a noisy quarter with lots of -- between lapping S4 in the case of ALD and timing and the way retailers have laid out seasons have lots of factors.

    我認為我們承認這是一個嘈雜的季度,有很多因素——在 ALD 的情況下,S4 的圈速和時機以及零售商安排季節的方式有很多因素。

  • So -- but when you look across all of it, the biggest piece is 0.5 point.

    所以——但是當你瀏覽所有內容時,最大的部分是 0.5 分。

  • We expect to see less of that all in 2025.

    我們預計到 2025 年這種情況將會減少。

  • It should be a lot cleaner conversation.

    這應該是一個更乾淨的對話。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thanks so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Palmer with Citi.

    花旗銀行的湯姆·帕爾默。

  • Tom Palmer - Analyst

    Tom Palmer - Analyst

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Tom Palmer - Analyst

    Tom Palmer - Analyst

  • I know it's still early for a full 2025 outlook.

    我知道現在對 2025 年進行全面展望還為時過早。

  • But I wanted to just get maybe more specific on a couple of items you noted for 2025.

    但我想更具體地了解您提到的 2025 年的幾個項目。

  • Just any help on the incentive comp, how much that's tracking below this year?

    只是對激勵補償有任何幫助,今年的追蹤金額是多少?

  • And then second, you have multiyear plans for productivity and cost savings you've laid out.

    其次,您制定了提高生產力和節省成本的多年計劃。

  • To what extent might you be able to flex these a bit higher in 2025 versus what the plan was for 2024?

    與 2024 年的計劃相比,您在 2025 年可以在多大程度上將這些調整得更高一些?

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • We can take that.

    我們可以接受。

  • The comp reset, we'll talk more about that when we get to the fourth quarter.

    比賽重置,我們將在第四季詳細討論。

  • So we're still -- excuse when we talk about fourth earnings, we're still working through this year.

    所以,請原諒,當我們談論第四季度收益時,我們今年仍在努力。

  • But obviously, with the performance this year, you can imagine the incentive comp is going to be -- need to be reset next year back to target levels.

    但顯然,從今年的表現來看,你可以想像明年的激勵補償將回到目標水準。

  • And again, we'll give more color on that.

    再次,我們將對此提供更多的色彩。

  • But it's a meaningful year-over-year impact.

    但這是一個有意義的逐年影響。

  • On the productivity, absolutely.

    關於生產力,絕對是如此。

  • We have a great history of driving productivity here before.

    我們之前在提高生產力方面有著悠久的歷史。

  • We talked about things like the AAA program, which are incremental, just our base level of CI is something we try to push up every year.

    我們討論了諸如 AAA 計劃之類的事情,這些都是漸進的,只是我們的 CI 基礎水平是我們每年都努力提高的。

  • The teams are working hard to do that to continue that trajectory.

    團隊正在努力做到這一點,以繼續這一軌跡。

  • And then we'll continue to look even within the bounds of the AAA program, what more can we do to help offset some of the inflation.

    然後,即使在 AAA 計畫的範圍內,我們也將繼續研究我們還能做些什麼來幫助抵消部分通貨膨脹。

  • I'd say it's going to be tough.

    我想說這會很艱難。

  • The teams are working on it.

    團隊正在努力解決這個問題。

  • The savings that we share as a net savings, so it takes into account some level of reinvestment.

    我們分享的儲蓄為淨儲蓄,因此考慮了一定程度的再投資。

  • But we will definitely be looking to drive as much savings as we can for next year.

    但我們肯定會尋求在明年盡可能節省開支。

  • Tom Palmer - Analyst

    Tom Palmer - Analyst

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Thanks for that color.

    謝謝那個顏色。

  • Just a quick one on cocoa.

    簡單介紹一下可可。

  • The prepared remarks indicated, it would be inflationary throughout the year.

    準備好的評論表明,全年都會出現通貨膨脹。

  • Are there periods we should be thinking about next year where we will see that rate of inflation more significant than others?

    我們是否應該考慮明年的某些時期,我們會看到通貨膨脹率比其他時期更顯著?

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes, I would say that's hard to call right now, just because we're still getting through this year and cocoa has been so volatile.

    是的,我想說,現在很難做出決定,因為我們今年仍在度過,而可可的波動性很大。

  • We'll try to give more of that color when we do talk about full guidance for next year to give a little bit of prospect fact.

    當我們談論明年的全面指導時,我們將嘗試提供更多這種色彩,以提供一些前景事實。

  • By then, we'll have a pretty good picture price some of those year-over-year movements.

    到那時,我們將獲得一些同比變動的相當好的圖片價格。

  • Tom Palmer - Analyst

    Tom Palmer - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • You bet.

    你打賭。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Max Gumport with BNP Paribas.

    法國巴黎銀行的馬克斯‧岡波特。

  • Max Gumport - Analyst

    Max Gumport - Analyst

  • Hi.

    你好。

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • Just going back to cost savings for next year.

    回到明年的成本節約。

  • It feels like what we know now, there could be $140 million or so coming from the productivity program benefiting COGS, and then maybe $40 million or so benefiting COGS in the AAA program, so call it $180 in total.

    感覺就像我們現在所知道的,生產力計劃可能有 1.4 億美元左右的資金使 COGS 受益,然後 AAA 計劃中的 COGS 受益可能有 4000 萬美元左右,所以總共稱為 180 美元。

  • One, do I have that right?

    一、我有這個權利嗎?

  • And then two, your remarks about it being your teams are working, but it will be tough to get after those savings.

    第二,你的評論是你的團隊正在工作,但很難獲得這些節省。

  • Are there incremental savings above and beyond those two buckets?

    除了這兩個方面之外,是否還有增量節省?

  • Or should we really be thinking about $180 million or so being the number for 2025?

    或者我們真的應該考慮 1.8 億美元左右作為 2025 年的數字嗎?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I don't want to give -- pin down exactly how that's going to allocate.

    我不想具體說明如何分配。

  • The $130 million to $140 million in CI is typically targeted at the operating supply chain area.

    1.3 億至 1.4 億美元的 CI 通常針對營運供應鏈領域。

  • So I'll say, tick the box correct on that.

    所以我會說,勾選正確的方框。

  • We'll give more details on the split of AAA when we give our guidance for the fourth quarter.

    當我們給出第四季度的指導時,我們將提供有關 AAA 拆分的更多細節。

  • It's a mix, as we talked about before, there is clearly a COGS component, and there's a pretty significant SG&A corporate expense component as well, and we'll give more detail on that breakout when we get there.

    這是一個混合體,正如我們之前談到的,顯然有一個COGS 組成部分,而且還有一個相當重要的SG&A 公司費用組成部分,當我們到達那裡時,我們將提供有關該突破的更多詳細信息。

  • And what was the second question you had?

    你的第二個問題是什麼?

  • Was that it?

    是這樣嗎?

  • Max Gumport - Analyst

    Max Gumport - Analyst

  • That was really -- that was helpful.

    這真的很有幫助。

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Okay, fine.

    好吧,好吧。

  • Max Gumport - Analyst

    Max Gumport - Analyst

  • But I will ask a second question, which is on -- going back to Alexia's question on GLP-1.

    但我會問第二個問題——回到 Alexia 關於 GLP-1 的問題。

  • And I think you talked about seeing a mild impact.

    我想你談到了看到輕微的影響。

  • Really I'm curious if you could put a finer point on what type of impact you're actually seeing.

    我真的很好奇您是否可以更詳細地說明您實際看到的影響類型。

  • And then, related to that is, I think we're all of the mind that much of the snappiness we're seeing right now is due to the consumer feeling financial pressure which you talked about in your prepared remarks.

    然後,與此相關的是,我認為我們都認為我們現在看到的大部分急躁情緒是由於消費者感受到了您在準備好的講話中談到的財務壓力。

  • But I'm curious if think there is a meaningful portion of the snacking weakness right now that is due to category level shifts related to GLP-1, particularly as we see some of these higher protein categories even within snacking, such as meat snacks doing better than others?

    但我很好奇,是否認為現在的零食弱點中有一個有意義的部分是由於與GLP-1 相關的類別水平變化所致,特別是當我們看到一些較高蛋白質類別甚至在零食中時,例如肉類零食比其他人好嗎?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • I'll leave it there.

    我會把它留在那裡。

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • All the analysis that we have done has continued to show that the year-on-year impact is not significant and that the pressure in the snacking categories are really driven by the consumers feeling pressured financially.

    我們所做的所有分析繼續表明,同比影響並不顯著,零食類別的壓力實際上是由消費者感到經濟壓力造成的。

  • So, every piece of data that we've seen has really indicated that.

    所以,我們看到的每一條數據都確實顯示了這一點。

  • And then, of course, on some elements of our business, some opportunities for us to be executing better.

    當然,在我們業務的某些方面,我們還有一些更好執行的機會。

  • So that's really what our data has shown.

    這確實是我們的數據所顯示的。

  • Max Gumport - Analyst

    Max Gumport - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thanks very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Palmer with Evercore ISI.

    大衛·帕爾默 (David Palmer) 與 Evercore ISI。

  • David Palmer - Analyst

    David Palmer - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • I'm wondering, if maybe at the end of this call, obviously, we're all going to have to take a crack at earnings for 2025.

    我想知道,顯然,在本次電話會議結束時,我們是否都將不得不對 2025 年的盈利進行一番研究。

  • And I'm wondering, if maybe we could put some brackets around how you're thinking -- how you would think right now, given some base case assumptions, some of the things you're talking about, the reset incentive compensation, that 2% to 4% top line cohort cost realities today.

    我想知道,也許我們可以把你的想法放在括號裡——考慮到一些基本情況假設,你現在談論的一些事情,重置激勵補償,你現在會怎麼想如今,2% 到4% 的頂線隊列成本是現實的。

  • Is it safe to say we'd be thinking something like a double-digit earnings decrease for 2025?

    可以肯定地說,我們會考慮 2025 年收入出現兩位數下降嗎?

  • How can we maybe think about that further?

    我們怎樣才能進一步思考這個問題?

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • I mean, we'd love, David, to give more precision around what that range would look like.

    我的意思是,大衛,我們希望能夠更精確地描述該範圍。

  • I think, the challenge, and you kind of said it in the question is the cocoa reality today is evolving.

    我認為,挑戰,你在問題中說過,今天的可可現實正在不斷發展。

  • And so it's very hard to kind of give guidance on the total until we get more visibility or full visibility, let's say, into what that impact is going to be next year.

    因此,在我們獲得更多可見性或全面可見性之前,很難就整體情況提供指導,例如明年的影響。

  • We've talked about some of the headwinds from our tax normalization and incentive normalization.

    我們已經討論了稅收正常化和激勵正常化帶來的一些阻力。

  • Clearly, there's going to be a significant year-over-year impact to cocoa, but exactly what it is, we're just not in a position yet to share it.

    顯然,這將對可可產生重大的逐年影響,但具體影響是什麼,我們只是還無法分享。

  • David Palmer - Analyst

    David Palmer - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Understood on that.

    對此表示理解。

  • And just one question on the top line, you went through in the prepared remarks, a great reminder about the long-term growth of 15-year growth in the confectionery category.

    您在準備好的發言中提到了最重要的問題,這很好地提醒了糖果業 15 年成長的長期成長。

  • And not only that, but Hershey has done a great job in terms of market share growth and had big areas of growth and outsized growth from things like Seasons, the Reese's Power brand I'm wondering how you're thinking about the sort of the shape of your growth and the contributors of growth maybe those outsized areas of growth as you're going forward?

    不僅如此,好時在市場份額增長方面也做得很好,並且從諸如季節、里斯的力量品牌等方面獲得了很大的增長領域和超額增長,我想知道您如何看待這種您的增長形式以及成長的貢獻者也許是您未來發展的那些巨大的成長領域?

  • Whether that be non-chocolate confectionery, which has been outperforming chocolate recently, maybe channel, how are you thinking about the candidates for outsized growth for you in 2025 and beyond?

    無論是最近表現優於巧克力的非巧克力糖果,還是通路,您如何看待 2025 年及以後的超額成長候選產品?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • So I would say, certainly, salty, as we look at our entire portfolio is going to be a big area of growth.

    所以我想說,當然,鹹,因為我們看到我們的整個投資組合將成為一個很大的成長領域。

  • Strong growth in the category, lots of household penetration upside for us on those businesses.

    這個類別的強勁成長,對我們這些業務的家庭滲透率有很大的上升空間。

  • Distribution expansion, suite certainly because suites is a growing area of the category, also an area where we are underdeveloped.

    分銷擴張,當然是套房,因為套房是品類中不斷增長的領域,也是我們欠發達的領域。

  • Certainly, seasons, we've continued to have strength and so we will continue to look at ways for that to drive us going forward.

    當然,幾個賽季以來,我們一直保持著實力,因此我們將繼續尋找方法來推動我們前進。

  • I would say some of the channel opportunities we think are big ones and a lot of those would come through relative to chocolate.

    我想說的是,我們認為一些通路機會很大,其中很多都是與巧克力相關的。

  • And I think I kind of categorize that chocolate would be more in line with and slightly better than the category, but probably the biggest inflection point in 2025 versus some of the others that I mentioned.

    我認為我認為巧克力會更符合這個類別,並且比該類別稍好一些,但與我提到的其他一些類別相比,這可能是 2025 年最大的轉折點。

  • David Palmer - Analyst

    David Palmer - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

    富國銀行證券公司的克里斯凱裡。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Hi.

    你好。

  • Hi, everyone.

    大家好。

  • I just wanted to go back to a reference in the prepared remarks that you'll be dealing with fewer headwinds in 2025 than you experienced in 2024.

    我只是想回顧一下準備好的發言中提到的內容,即 2025 年您遇到的阻力將比 2024 年少。

  • I think it's really a top line comment.

    我認為這確實是最重要的評論。

  • Michelle, you flagged convenience stores probably weak into the front half, but then maybe get better.

    米歇爾,你標記便利商店可能在前半部分錶現疲弱,但隨後可能會變得更好。

  • It sounds like you expect execution to get better in-store as well, potentially with a new leader for infection.

    聽起來你預期店內的執行力也會更好,可能會出現新的感染領導者。

  • Just what are the things that when you think about fewer headwinds and the year-over-year helpers that you're really thinking about when you insert that comment in the prepared remarks?

    當您在準備好的評論中插入該評論時,當您考慮更少的阻力和逐年幫助時,您真正想到的是什麼?

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, there were several, and Steve can jump in if I missed some of them, but we exited the Mexico drink business.

    是的,有幾個,如果我錯過了其中一些,史蒂夫可以介入,但我們退出了墨西哥飲料業務。

  • So that was a drag on the business this year that we won't experience retail inventory, which I think Steve referenced a little bit earlier.

    因此,今年我們不會遇到零售庫存,這對我們的業務造成了拖累,我認為史蒂夫早些時候提到過這一點。

  • Certainly, some of the pressures that we had at that key retailer around reduced merch that we will have fully lapped the ready-to-eat popcorn softness that we had seen on SkinnyPop again, we should be through most of the lap on that, that was creating pressure.

    當然,我們在那個主要零售商那裡面臨著一些圍繞減少商品的壓力,我們將完全接受我們在 SkinnyPop 上看到的即食爆米花的柔軟度,我們應該度過大部分時間,正在製造壓力。

  • There were some pressures from year two leaky buckets on some innovation, and we've pulled some of those smaller items to get away from that.

    第二年的漏水桶給一些創新帶來了一些壓力,我們已經撤回了一些較小的專案來擺脫這種壓力。

  • Steve is there any -- that was the only other one, I think, that we've called out.

    史蒂夫在嗎?

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And then, of course, you have positives on the other side, right?

    當然,另一方面你也有正面的一面,對吧?

  • We've got a longer Easter.

    我們有一個更長的復活節。

  • We've got very strong innovation pipeline, both year one and year two for next year with some strong investment behind it.

    我們擁有非常強大的創新管道,明年的第一年和第二年都有強大的投資支持。

  • Michele has talked about the Suites momentum, the inflection in SkinnyPop.

    米歇爾談到了套房的勢頭,以及《SkinnyPop》中的變化。

  • So absence of negatives and opportunities on the growth side.

    因此,成長方面不存在負面因素和機會。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • And then one quick follow-up would be, Michele, you did reference several times in -- throughout this Q&A session, what it sounds like desire for execution just to be a bit better.

    然後,一個快速的後續行動是,米歇爾,您在整個問答環節中多次提到,聽起來像是對執行力的渴望,只是為了做得更好一點。

  • And clearly, you have new leadership with the business.

    顯然,您的業務有了新的領導階層。

  • How would you frame maybe this past couple of years of market share between innovation versus in-store execution that can be merchandising, RGM what have you.

    您如何看待過去幾年創新與店內執行(可以是商品推銷、RGM 等)之間的市場份額。

  • But it just does feel like there's a tinge of execution that you feel like that's been lacking and that can improve.

    但確實感覺有一種執行力的感覺,你覺得這是缺乏的,而且可以改進。

  • So when you kind of think about the past several years, how meaningful has that execution been in market versus, say, some other factors?

    因此,當您回想過去幾年時,與其他一些因素相比,這種執行對市場有多大意義?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • So I think there have been a couple of areas that I want to do better.

    所以我認為有幾個領域我想做得更好。

  • Certainly, this past year, our summer activations in market did not perform as strongly as we had hoped, things like Olympics.

    當然,去年我們的夏季市場活動並沒有像我們希望的那樣強勁,例如奧運。

  • I think that there are some areas where there were some changing dynamics in the category.

    我認為該類別的某些領域存在一些動態變化。

  • So there was increased competition from private label and smaller manufacturers in take-home.

    因此,來自自有品牌和小型製造商的帶回家競爭加劇。

  • So we had a really good innovation calendar but it was focused on sites and on instant consumable and our innovation did incredibly well there.

    所以我們有一個非常好的創新日曆,但它專注於網站和即時消費品,我們的創新在那裡做得非常好。

  • But with that stepped-up level of new competitors in take home, we found that we need even more there.

    但隨著新競爭對手水準的提高,我們發現我們需要更多。

  • So as we look at seasons, we had some instances where we had a variety of offerings and perhaps our retail partners didn't always have the optimal or choose the optimal portfolio.

    因此,當我們審視季節時,我們遇到了一些情況,我們有多種產品,也許我們的零售合作夥伴並不總是擁有最佳產品或選擇最佳產品組合。

  • We think that we can partner with them and influence in a greater way.

    我們認為我們可以與他們合作並發揮更大的影響力。

  • And then I think just some areas of opportunity, probably not weak execution but opportunity.

    然後我認為只是一些機會領域,可能不是執行力薄弱,而是機會。

  • We talked a lot about some of the work we did on gold standard shelf I take home a few years back.

    我們談論了很多關於幾年前我帶回家的黃金標準貨架上所做的一些工作。

  • We're implementing that right now for instant consumables.

    我們現在正在為即時消耗品實施這一點。

  • I think that, that will lead to some stellar results for us.

    我認為,這將為我們帶來一些出色的成果。

  • So, as well as the focus that we're putting on some of our variety brands portfolio and really executing that well within instant consumables as well.

    因此,我們將重點放在一些品種品牌組合上,並在即時消費品中真正執行得很好。

  • So, those are some of the areas of focus.

    所以,這些都是一些重點領域。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • That’s really helpful.

    這確實很有幫助。

  • Thank you so much.

    太感謝了。

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Leah Jordan with Goldman Sachs.

    利亞·喬丹與高盛。

  • Leah Jordan - Analyst

    Leah Jordan - Analyst

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Thank you for taking my question.

    謝謝你回答我的問題。

  • I was seeing if you could provide more color on the increased competition that you're seeing in confection domestically.

    我想知道您是否可以為國內糖果行業日益激烈的競爭提供更多的資訊。

  • What do you think is different in the environment now that that smaller players in private label are having a meaningful impact, as you called out?

    正如您所指出的那樣,自有品牌中的小型企業正在產生有意義的影響,您認為現在的環境有什麼不同?

  • And how do you plan to address these pressures?

    您打算如何應對這些壓力?

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So, I think as it comes to private label, certainly, I think that's driven by the consumer pressure and focus on value And certainly, I think retailers looking to -- at their margins and the potential that exists there.

    因此,我認為,就自有品牌而言,當然,我認為這是由消費者壓力和對價值的關注所推動的。

  • I think as it goes to smaller players, some of the some of the barriers to entry with digital media enable a bit more of that to come into the category as well as with sweets because I would say sweets has some -- an easier door to open to the category as well.

    我認為,對於規模較小的企業來說,進入數位媒體的一些障礙使得更多的人能夠像糖果一樣進入這一類別,因為我想說糖果有一些——更容易進入的大門也向該類別開放。

  • Where we are really focused is how do we really have the right offerings, the total value proposition.

    我們真正關注的是如何真正擁有正確的產品和總價值主張。

  • So, if we look at instant consumables, for example, it's always about the highest velocity items everywhere.

    因此,例如,如果我們看看即時消耗品,它總是與各地速度最快的物品有關。

  • So, there are some instances where we put out some innovation and shelf space that we took during the pandemic and the items we're doing okay, but now there are some smaller players who came in and have competitive velocities, and we need to switch out some of the items we have for even stronger items.

    因此,在某些情況下,我們會拿出一些在大流行期間佔用的創新和貨架空間,以及我們做得還不錯的產品,但現在有一些較小的參與者進來並具有競爭性的速度,我們需要進行切換我們擁有一些更強大的物品。

  • So, I think it's really a focus on that.

    所以,我認為這確實是一個重點。

  • Leah Jordan - Analyst

    Leah Jordan - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • (Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

    (操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自 Rob Dickerson 和 Jefferies 的線路。

  • Please proceed with your question.

    請繼續你的問題。

  • Rob Dickerson - Analyst

    Rob Dickerson - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thanks so much.

    非常感謝。

  • Steve, I don't want to beat the horse, so to speak, but I do want to come back a little bit to the pricing conversation for next year.

    史蒂夫,可以這麼說,我不想打敗對手,但我確實想稍微回顧一下明年的定價對話。

  • I know you had said previously restated today, you've taken a bit high single-digit pricing on about half of the North America confection portfolio, maybe the total portfolio.

    我知道您今天重申過,您對大約一半的北美糖果組合(也許是整個組合)採取了較高的個位數定價。

  • But I feel like that still implies probably somewhere around a mid-single-digit range for North America confection in 2025.

    但我覺得這仍然意味著 2025 年北美糖果的價格可能會在中個位數左右。

  • And I'm just trying to marry that to the comment that pricing next year would be essentially similar to what we're seeing this year because it would seem like it actually would be a little higher next year given some of the pricing on cocoa.

    我只是想將這一點與明年的定價與我們今年看到的基本相似的評論結合起來,因為考慮到可可的一些定價,明年的定價實際上會更高一些。

  • So, maybe if you can just kind of help me understand that.

    所以,也許你能幫助我理解這一點。

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • I think the biggest disconnect is probably just due to the mix of items that are being priced.

    我認為最大的脫節可能只是由於定價項目的混合。

  • I think we talked a little bit about on a pounds basis, with about 50% of the pounds being priced and when you kind of flow that through the portfolio, that's what kind of gets you back to that, I'd say, similar, not exactly the same, but similar to what we saw this year.

    我認為我們以英鎊為基礎進行了一些討論,大約 50% 的英鎊被定價,當你將其流經投資組合時,這就是讓你回到那個點的原因,我想說,類似的,不完全相同,但與我們今年看到的相似。

  • Rob Dickerson - Analyst

    Rob Dickerson - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Fair enough.

    很公平。

  • And then I guess the other question is just kind of around the comment you made in the prepared remarks about kind of trade and media spend increasing a little bit?

    然後我想另一個問題只是圍繞您在準備好的評論中發表的關於貿易和媒體支出增加一點的評論?

  • It sounds like maybe there's a little bit more push on core brands, maybe not Reese's, but brands like Almond Joy and Mounds PAYDAY.

    聽起來也許對核心品牌有更多的推動,也許不是 Reese's,而是 Almond Joy 和 Mounds PAYDAY 等品牌。

  • And I just remember, Michele, I don't know if we go back and kind of making this off like five years ago or so, right, there was a little bit of an initiative to kind of lean into those brands a little bit.

    我只記得,米歇爾,我不知道我們是否會像五年前那樣回到過去,對吧,有一些舉措可以稍微偏向這些品牌。

  • It seemed like maybe you continue to lean on them, but if we lean into them a little bit more now, what does that mean?

    看起來也許你會繼續依賴它們,但如果我們現在更依賴它們,那又意味著什麼?

  • Does that just mean kind of more social media, overall marketing dynamics?

    這是否意味著更多的社群媒體、整體行銷動態?

  • Does it mean maybe a little bit more innovation coming from those brands?

    這是否意味著這些品牌可能會帶來更多創新?

  • Just trying to gauge kind of where you can take those brands maybe improve the overall efficacy of the portfolio.

    只是嘗試衡量您可以將這些品牌帶到何處,可能會提高產品組合的整體功效。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • That’s all.

    僅此而已。

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Absolutely.

    絕對地。

  • So it is prioritizing the distribution of those brands.

    因此,它優先考慮這些品牌的分銷。

  • Most of those brands, they are biggest parts of their growth is in regular account.

    大多數這些品牌的成長最大的部分是在常規帳戶上。

  • So we have king-sized brands, and we have brands that are big regular account.

    所以我們有特大號品牌,也有大客戶品牌。

  • We think now given the focus on consumer value and entry-level price points, really making sure that we have a robust portfolio there and then continuing to invest in those brands to give them the marketing support, which then, of course, leads to those strong velocities that will outpace many of the other newer competitive items who may be trying to game distribution in the category.

    我們認為,現在考慮到對消費者價值和入門級價格點的關注,真正確保我們在那裡擁有強大的產品組合,然後繼續投資這些品牌,為他們提供行銷支持,當然,這會導致這些強勁的速度將超過許多其他可能試圖在該類別中進行遊戲分配的較新的競爭項目。

  • Rob Dickerson - Analyst

    Rob Dickerson - Analyst

  • All right.

    好的。

  • Thank you so much.

    太感謝了。

  • Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Steven Voskuil - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.(Operator Instructions)

    謝謝。

  • There are no additional questions at this time.

    目前沒有其他問題。

  • Would you like to make some further remarks?

    您還想發表進一步的意見嗎?

  • Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Michele Buck - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Thank you all for joining us today.

    感謝大家今天加入我們。

  • I look forward to speaking with many of you in the next few days and coming weeks.

    我期待在接下來的幾天和幾週內與你們中的許多人交談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • This will conclude today's conference.

    今天的會議到此結束。

  • Thank you for your participation.

    感謝您的參與。

  • You may now disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.

    您現在可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。