好時 (HSY) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to The Hershey Company second quarter 2025 question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加好時公司 2025 年第二季問答會。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Anoori Naughton, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Hershey Company. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我想將電話轉給主持人、好時公司投資人關係副總裁 Anoori Naughton。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I hope everyone has had the chance to read our press release and listen to our prerecorded management remarks, both of which are available on our website. In addition, we have posted a transcript of the pre-recorded remarks. At the conclusion of today's live Q&A session, we will also post a transcript and audio replay of this call.

大家早安，感謝大家今天加入我們。我希望每個人都有機會閱讀我們的新聞稿並聆聽我們預先錄製的管理層講話，這兩者都可以在我們的網站上找到。此外，我們也發布了預先錄製的發言的記錄稿。在今天的現場問答環節結束時，我們也將發布本次通話的記錄和音訊回放。

Please note that during today's Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These statements include expectations and assumptions regarding the company's future operations and financial performance.

請注意，在今天的問答環節中，我們可能會做出前瞻性的陳述，這些陳述受各種風險和不確定性的影響。這些聲明包括對公司未來營運和財務表現的預期和假設。

Actual results could differ materially from those projected. The company undertakes no obligation to update these statements based on subsequent events. A detailed listing of such risks and uncertainties can be found in today's press release and the company's SEC filings.

實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。本公司不承擔根據後續事件更新這些聲明的義務。此類風險和不確定性的詳細清單可在今天的新聞稿和該公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中找到。

Finally, please note that we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe will provide useful information for investors. The presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations to the GAAP results are included in this morning's press release.

最後，請注意，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標，我們認為這些指標將為投資者提供有用的信息。這些資訊的呈現並非旨在單獨考慮或取代根據 GAAP 呈現的財務資訊。今天早上的新聞稿中包含了與 GAAP 結果的對帳。

Joining me today are Hershey's Chairman and CEO, Michele Buck; and Hershey's Senior Vice President and CFO, Steve Voskuil.

今天與我一起出席的還有好時公司董事長兼首席執行官米歇爾·巴克 (Michele Buck) 和好時公司高級副總裁兼首席財務官史蒂夫·沃斯奎爾 (Steve Voskuil)。

Before turning it over, I would personally like to thank Michele for being an inspiring force. Your clear vision and unwavering dedication to excellence have shaped this company and will continue to motivate us for years to come.

在翻頁之前，我個人想感謝 Michele 給我的鼓舞。您清晰的願景和對卓越的不懈追求塑造了這家公司，並將在未來幾年繼續激勵我們。

So with that, let's get started with the first question. Operator?

那麼，讓我們開始第一個問題。操作員？

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Michele, congratulations to you. Best wishes going forward. And congratulations to Kirk as well as he prepares to take the helm in mid-August.

米歇爾，祝賀你。祝一切順利。同時也祝賀柯克準備在八月中旬執掌公司。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I guess, my question, Michele, is that oftentimes when a new CEO comes in, it can be seen as an opportunity to sort of rebase earnings and margins to set the company up for the next several years, particularly if it's a situation where there's been, let's say, underinvestment. Kirk will obviously come in, get under the hood and make his own determination.

我想，我的問題是，米歇爾，新任執行長上任後，通常可以將其看作是一個機會，可以重新調整盈利和利潤率，為公司未來幾年的發展做好準備，特別是在投資不足的情況下。柯克顯然會介入，深入了解情況並做出自己的決定。

But I guess from where you sit, if we put issues like cocoa and tariffs aside, do you see the underlying health of the business as in need of this sort of a reset? And I guess, more importantly, what specifically did you and the Board see in Kirk that made him the right choice?

但我想從您的角度來看，如果我們把可可和關稅等問題放在一邊，您是否認為該業務的根本健康狀況需要這種重置？我想，更重要的是，您和董事會具體看中了柯克的哪些特質，使他成為正確的選擇？

Sure. So first of all, I'll reiterate, certainly, as Kirk walks in, he'll have the opportunity to form his own opinion. But what I would share is, as you know, Hershey has been a company that has stated our belief in investments in brands and capability over time to consistently ensure that we can drive sustainable growth. And we have proven that we consistently do reinvest during periods of change.

當然。所以首先，我要重申，當然，當柯克走進來時，他將有機會形成自己的觀點。但我想分享的是，如你所知，好時公司一直堅信對品牌和能力的投資，以始終如一地確保我們能夠推動永續成長。我們已經證明，在變革時期我們確實會持續進行再投資。

As we got hit by some of the record high cocoa prices early on, we stated that our approach was going to be taking a long-term approach to ensure continued category health, and we've done that. We've continued to spend on our brands, we've invested in technology with our new ERP platform, and then new AI and tech-enabled capabilities that have driven significant efficiency, whether in the transformation program or other places.

由於我們早期受到可可價格創歷史新高的衝擊，我們表示，我們將採取長期措施來確保該類別產品的持續健康，而且我們已經這樣做了。我們繼續在品牌上投入資金，透過新的 ERP 平台投資技術，然後是新的 AI 和技術支援功能，這些都顯著提高了效率，無論是在轉型計劃中還是在其他地方。

On top of that, we're seeing top line momentum on the business. We have our profit recovery plans well underway, and we'll talk more about that today. So as I look at the past 18 months where we've faced headwinds, I then also look at the future where I would say I see more opportunity given the fundamentals of cocoa, the direction that they're headed in, and perhaps even with tariffs. So if I put all of that together, I don't see a need to really reset. I think we've been consistently investing, and we have momentum on our side.

最重要的是，我們看到了業務收入的成長動能。我們的利潤恢復計畫正在順利進行中，今天我們將對此進行更多討論。因此，當我回顧過去 18 個月我們所面臨的阻力時，我也會展望未來，我會說，考慮到可可的基本面、其發展方向，甚至關稅，我看到了更多的機會。因此，如果我將所有這些放在一起，我認為沒有必要真正重置。我認為我們一直在持續投資，而且我們擁有良好的發展勢頭。

If I look at Kirk and what made him the best candidate. I mean, certainly, Kirk has three decades of experience in consumer-packaged goods at Pepsi, a leading talent house. He's got very relevant experience in snacking and then also in beverage, which has many corollaries to our business. It's not only an iconic brand business, it's also a pack type business, ubiquitous distribution across channels. So a lot of similarities.

如果我看看柯克，是什麼讓他成為最佳候選人。我的意思是，柯克在百事可樂（一家領先的人才公司）從事消費包裝商品行業已有三十年的經驗。他在零食和飲料方面擁有非常豐富的經驗，這對我們的業務有很多益處。這不僅是一個標誌性品牌業務，也是一個包裝型業務，跨通路的無處不在的分銷。有很多相似之處。

He is also very focused on being consumer-centric, customer-centric and the importance of culture in delivering results. So I think all of that and his kind of performance orientation will make him be a great person to continue moving forward our ambition to be a leading snacking powerhouse and continue to deliver sustainable growth.

他也非常注重以消費者為中心、以客戶為中心以及文化在實現成果中的重要性。因此，我認為所有這些以及他的績效導向將使他成為一個偉大的人選，繼續推進我們成為領先的零食巨頭的雄心壯志，並繼續實現可持續增長。

Great. All right. And then a quick one, Steve. Just it appears at least as a starting point in '25, you're looking for elasticity of roughly 1:1 on the new pricing that was recently announced. Is this a reasonable expectation for '26 as well, at least at this stage, just given the magnitude of the pricing being taken?

偉大的。好的。然後快速回答一個問題，史蒂夫。至少從 25 年開始，您會發現最近宣布的新定價的彈性約為 1:1。考慮到定價幅度，這對 26 年來說也是合理的預期嗎，至少在現階段是如此？

Or how do you assess elasticity when it's certainly a greater amount of pricing than you've typically taken in a situation like this?

或者，在這種情況下，當定價肯定比您通常採取的定價要高時，您如何評估彈性？

Sure. Yes, as you can imagine, our teams have modeled this exhaustively. And I'd put up our strategic revenue management team against anyone that's very, very thoughtful in the way we've approached this. And overall, the elasticities are probably a little bit more favorable than what we've seen in history. But part of that is because of the breadth.

當然。是的，正如您所想像的，我們的團隊已經對此進行了詳細的建模。我會推薦我們的策略收入管理團隊，對抗任何在處理這個問題上非常深思熟慮的團隊。總體而言，彈性可能比我們歷史上看到的要好一些。但部分原因是因為其廣度。

And there are parts, as we know, parts of our portfolio like seasons that are a little bit less elastic. There are other parts more elastic. And so as we set both the pricing assumption and the elasticity assumption, we did that with a very thoughtful modeled approach. Now we'll be watching it closely. But right now, we feel we've got a good beat on how it will play out for this year and next year.

我們知道，我們投資組合中的某些部分，例如季節，彈性就稍差一些。其他部分則更有彈性。因此，當我們設定定價假設和彈性假設時，我們採用了非常周到的模型方法。現在我們將密切關注。但現在，我們感覺我們已經對今年和明年的走勢有了很好的把握。

Max Gumport, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的馬克斯‧甘波特。

Michele, congrats as well. I hope you enjoy the retirement. At CAGNY, you observed that if your realized cocoa costs in '26 matched your costs in '24, then you could do $10 plus in adjusted EPS in '26. And I realize we're nowhere near that situation currently, and we also now need to factor in tariffs as well, which were not contemplated in that math. That said, with the announced price increase, it does seem like your pricing will very much close the gap to the total COGS inflation that you have seen in recent years in dollar terms, which with regard to EPS might have an equivalent impact as costs falling back to '24 levels.

米歇爾，我也祝賀你。我希望你享受退休生活。在 CAGNY，您觀察到，如果您在 1926 年實現的可可成本與 1924 年的成本相匹配，那麼您在 1926 年的調整後每股收益就可以增加 10 美元以上。我意識到我們目前還遠遠沒有達到這種情況，而且我們現在還需要考慮關稅，而這在計算中並沒有考慮到。話雖如此，隨著宣布價格上漲，您的定價似乎將大大縮小與近年來以美元計算的總 COGS 通膨之間的差距，這對於 EPS 而言可能會產生與成本回落至 24 水平相當的影響。

And also your comment of the price increase and other initiatives supporting 500 basis points or more of gross margin expansion in '26 before considering partial offsets from cocoa cost and tariffs would support that reasoning as well. So I'm hoping you could provide a bit of a finer point on how to read the impact of this pricing for next year and what it might mean for your P&L specifically if cocoa futures were to hold at current levels. I realize there's a lot in there, but I'm hoping for a bit of an update on that.

另外，您提到的價格上漲和其他舉措支持 26 年毛利率擴大 500 個基點或更多，然後再考慮可可成本和關稅的部分抵消，這也支持了這一理由。因此，我希望您能提供更詳細的觀點，說明如何解讀這項定價對明年的影響，以及如果可可期貨維持在當前水平，這對您的損益表意味著什麼。我知道其中有很多內容，但我希望對此進行一些更新。

Sure. I can definitely give some perspective. So you're right. When we gave that back at CAGNY, talked about $10 and $12 possibilities with assumptions from '25 and '24 carrying forward without inflation. Some things have changed since then, tariffs being the biggest one, right?

當然。我絕對可以提供一些觀點。所以你是對的。當我們在 CAGNY 歸還這些錢時，我們討論了 10 美元和 12 美元的可能性，假設 25 年和 24 年的水平不會出現通貨膨脹。從那時起，有些事情發生了變化，其中最大的變化就是關稅，對嗎？

Tariffs wasn't contemplated at the time of that thinking, and that will continue to be something that we have to work to optimize while also working to see if we can get relief, particularly on the cocoa component of that.

在考慮這個問題時，我們並沒有考慮關稅，我們將繼續努力優化這個問題，同時努力尋找是否可以減免關稅，特別是可可成分的減免。

But that aside, this pricing move does make a material impact in the right direction of margin recovery for 2026. It does not, by itself, recover all of the cocoa inflation that we have seen up to 2025. So it's a big step in the right direction, but it's not enough to fully compensate for cocoa inflation up to this point. As we look forward, all of the other levers are going to continue to be important. We talked about, in the prepared remarks, smart complexity.

但除此之外，此次定價舉措確實對 2026 年利潤率復甦的正確方向產生了重大影響。它本身並不能恢復到 2025 年我們看到的所有可可通膨。因此，這是朝著正確方向邁出的一大步，但還不足以完全彌補目前的可可通膨。展望未來，所有其他槓桿仍將發揮重要作用。我們在準備好的發言中討論了智慧複雜性。

You've seen us take our transformation savings up. We're going to continue to look at all of those levers to extract more cost savings and margin points so that we, over time, do fully recover our margin expectations. But this price increase, while significant, doesn't get us all the way to flat year-over-year.

您已經看到我們提高了轉型儲蓄。我們將繼續研究所有這些槓桿，以提取更多的成本節約和利潤點，以便我們隨著時間的推移完全恢復我們的利潤預期。但儘管價格上漲幅度很大，但並未使價格與去年同期持平。

Now having said that, some things do feel more optimistic than maybe they did even on our last call. Cocoa has come back some. And like everyone, we're trying to be thoughtful as we execute our hedging program and plan for cocoa next year. It is still inflationary from what we know today, but it's taken a step in the right direction. We'll continue to optimize tariffs.

話雖如此，但有些事情確實比我們上次通話時感覺更加樂觀。可可又回來了一些。和所有人一樣，我們在執行對沖計劃和明年可可計劃時也努力深思熟慮。從我們今天所知的情況來看，它仍然處於通貨膨脹狀態，但它已經朝著正確的方向邁出了一步。我們將繼續優化資費。

But if we could get relief and either tariffs or cocoa reverts back, either one of those could give us a path to something better than on-algorithm earnings for 2026, which is a little bit different than probably we thought in our last conversation.

但是，如果我們能夠獲得救濟，並且關稅或可可恢復，那麼其中任何一個都可以為我們提供一條比 2026 年演算法收益更好的道路，這可能與我們上次談話中的想法略有不同。

Great. And then just related to the pricing, how should we think about any need for incremental reinvestment next year to support that price increase and keep the consumer coming into your brands and your franchises?

偉大的。然後僅與定價相關，我們應該如何考慮明年增量再投資的必要性，以支持價格上漲並吸引消費者購買您的品牌和特許經營權？

Yes, into our pricing assumption, Michele touched on this already, we always want to make sure that we're investing back in the brands, that we're investing on competitive events with our customers. We've got a big innovation calendar already planned for next year. We've got some big tentpole events around Olympics and the Hershey movie. And so we feel like those will be fully funded. And of course, we'll be agile when we get into it.

是的，在我們的定價假設中，Michele 已經提到了這一點，我們始終希望確保我們對品牌進行投資，並對與客戶一起進行的競爭活動進行投資。我們已經為明年制定了重大創新計劃。我們圍繞著奧運和好時電影舉辦了一些大型活動。因此我們覺得這些將會得到全額資助。當然，當我們進入這個領域時，我們會變得敏捷。

And if we do see pressure in some spots or the elasticities are not what we expected, we can revisit.

如果我們確實看到某些地方有壓力，或者彈性不符合我們的預期，我們可以重新審視。

Okay, thank you very much. I'll leave it there.

好的，非常感謝。我就把它留在那裡。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Megan Clapp, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的梅根·克拉普。

Hi, good morning, and congratulations to Michele as well. I wanted to ask about the nonseasonal performance in CMG in the quarter. I think you talked to mid-single-digit growth in the quarter. That's better than we've seen previously, and you still have a lot of activations planned for the second half. And I think you were expecting some incremental shelf space alongside some of those plans in the second half.

大家好，早安，也祝賀 Michele。我想詢問一下本季 CMG 的非季節性表現。我認為您談到了本季中等個位數的成長。這比我們之前看到的要好，而且你們仍然計劃在下半年進行大量激活。我認為您預計下半年的一些計劃會伴隨貨架空間的增加而增加。

So maybe, a, you could just expand on what you've seen in that nonseasonal portfolio in the second quarter and what's driving the acceleration? And then, b, how you're thinking about second half growth and kind of the puts and takes?

那麼，也許您可以詳細說明一下您在第二季度非季節性投資組合中看到的情況以及推動加速的因素是什麼？然後，b，您如何看待下半年的成長以及收益和利弊？

Sure. So first of all, we're feeling very good about what we're seeing on overall chocolate category growth. And there are really three key factors that we think are driving a lot of what we're seeing. First of all, innovation. The consumer has really responded to innovation.

當然。首先，我們對巧克力類別整體的成長感到非常滿意。我們認為，有三個關鍵因素導致了我們看到的許多現象。首先，創新。消費者確實對創新做出了回應。

As the consumer looks for value, significant innovation makes a difference and delivers value. And there's been a lot of investment in innovation across the category. Secondly, we do know that our products provide emotional well-being and comfort during stressful times. And we've seen some correlations as we look at studies that are out relative to consumers' mindset and emotional well-being and where we're seeing growth tick up in the category.

當消費者尋求價值時，重大創新就會發揮作用並帶來價值。我們已經對整個類別的創新投入了大量資金。其次，我們確實知道我們的產品能夠在壓力大的時候提供情緒健康和安慰。當我們研究與消費者心態和情緒健康相關的研究時，我們發現了一些相關性，我們看到該類別的成長正在加快。

We also have had some periods where we were lapping some soft comps, and that helped us relative to every day as well. But I think those overall trends tend to be some of the biggest drivers. And then certainly, we also have seen some nice tick up from how we approached instant consumables and some of the choices that we made to really partner with retailers to broaden shelf space and innovation on instant consumables. And we saw some very strong positive results and growth behind those programs. And we think as pricing hits the market that we will only see that growth kind of maintain and become a bit stronger.

我們也曾經有過一段時間在進行一些軟性比賽，這對我們每天的工作也有幫助。但我認為這些整體趨勢往往是最大的驅動因素。當然，我們也看到了我們在處理即食消費品方面取得了一些不錯的進展，我們選擇與零售商真正合作，擴大即食消費品的貨架空間和創新。我們看到這些項目取得了非常強勁的積極成果並實現了成長。我們認為，隨著價格進入市場，我們將看到這種成長保持下去並變得更加強勁。

So we feel really good about what we're seeing. That said, I would say we're not sure that we will see the category stay at the same level of growth that we saw in Q2. Some of the year-on-year comps will get a little bit tougher.

因此，我們對所看到的情況感到非常滿意。話雖如此，我想說我們不確定該類別是否能保持與第二季相同的成長水準。一些同比數據將會變得更加嚴峻。

Okay. That's super helpful. And then maybe just a follow-up for Steve to the answer to Max's question. I think you said if relief in tariffs happen or cocoa reverts back, you could get to better than on-algo for '26. So I guess, is it fair to say at this point, you do expect you could deliver on-algo growth versus the updated '25 guide in 2026?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後也許只是史蒂夫對馬克斯問題的回答的後續。我想您說過，如果關稅減免或可可價格回升，那麼 26 年的業績可能會比線上演算法更好。所以我想，現在是否可以公平地說，您確實預計自己可以在 2026 年實現與更新後的 25 年指南相比的在線演算法增長？

Yeah, based on what we can see today, and again, things like tariffs are rapidly moving. But based on what we can see today, yes, we see on-algorithm earnings growth and top line growth for next year.

是的，根據我們今天所看到的情況，關稅等事情正在迅速變化。但根據我們今天所看到的情況，是的，我們預計明年演算法獲利和營收將會成長。

Awesome thank you I'll pass it on.

太棒了，謝謝，我會傳達的。

Peter Galbo, Bank of America.

美國銀行的彼得‧加爾博 (Peter Galbo)。

Hey, good morning, Michele and Steve. Thanks for the questions and congrats to Michele as well. Michele, maybe I wanted to take the tariff discussion in a little bit of a different direction. I think last quarter, you started hinting at some conversations that you all had been having as it relates to potential exemption. I think the Commerce Secretary even made some comments yesterday about cocoa potentially getting exemption, or at least in his words.

嘿，早上好，米歇爾和史蒂夫。感謝您的提問，也恭喜 Michele。米歇爾，也許我想從稍微不同的角度來討論關稅問題。我認為上個季度，您開始暗示您一直在進行的一些與潛在豁免有關的對話。我認為商務部長昨天甚至就可可可能獲得豁免發表了一些評論，或者至少用他的話來說。

So just curious if you can give us an update there in terms of the discussions that you're having and kind of how you've maybe seen that evolve relative to three months ago?

所以我很好奇，您是否可以向我們介紹一下您正在進行的討論的最新情況，以及與三個月前相比，您認為討論有何進展？

Sure. So I would say that we are even more optimistic now. As we've had conversations over the past several months, we have become increasingly comfortable that the government administration understands some of our concerns about the fact that cocoa can only be grown and sourced outside of the US. And so we feel good that they really understand that issue broadly, and we have started seeing more commentary -- more publicly addressing that, like the comments that Secretary Lutnick made just yesterday.

當然。所以我想說我們現在更樂觀了。在過去幾個月的對話中，我們越來越感到欣慰的是，政府管理部門理解我們對可可只能在美國境外種植和採購這一事實的一些擔憂。因此，我們很高興看到他們確實廣泛地了解了這個問題，而且我們已經開始看到更多的評論——更多公開地談論這個問題，就像盧特尼克部長昨天發表的評論一樣。

And we believe that gives us a lot of optimism. We understand that there are still country negotiations that are underway that have to come to fruition. And so the whole cocoa tariff has to be a broader part of that, but we are optimistic relative to the fact that there are now public statements being made about this issue.

我們相信這給了我們很大的樂觀。我們知道，仍有一些國家正在進行談判，需要有成果。因此，整個可可關稅必須是其中更廣泛的一部分，但我們對目前就此問題發表的公開聲明感到樂觀。

Great. And then if I can actually pivot to Halloween. I think in your prepared comments, again, there was a little bit of maybe a pull forward on shipments from Q3 into Q2. Just want to understand that dynamic. But then also, I believe you had pretty optimistic outlook for Halloween.

偉大的。然後我真的可以轉向萬聖節了。我認為，在您準備好的評論中，再次提到了從第三季到第二季的出貨量可能略有提前。只是想了解這種動態。但同時，我相信你對萬聖節抱持相當樂觀的態度。

So I just want to understand kind of what's underlying that view as we get into that season.

因此，我只是想了解，當我們進入那個季節時，這種觀點背後的原因是什麼。

Yes. So I wouldn't make too much of those accelerated shipments. We see shifts over the years between when Halloween shifts between Q2 and Q3. That's not uncommon. Some years the customers want to set the category a little bit earlier, and that's actually a good thing for us.

是的。所以我不會對加速出貨抱有太大期望。我們發現，萬聖節在第二季和第三季之間發生了變化。這並不罕見。有些年份，客戶希望稍早一點設定類別，這對我們來說其實是件好事。

We think we also may be seeing a bit of this mid-summer wean in. There's been a social media trend around summer wean, which is earlier Halloween celebrations, which has really somewhat taken off with certain consumer groups. So we know that some customers are focused on that.

我們認為我們可能也會看到這種仲夏的趨勢逐漸減弱。社群媒體上出現了一種圍繞夏季節日（即早期的萬聖節慶祝活動）的趨勢，這種趨勢在某些消費群體中確實很流行。因此我們知道一些客戶關注這一點。

As we talk to customers, we feel really good that there are plans in place to deliver another strong Halloween in '25. Retailers are definitely excited to set the bar higher this year and continuing to deliver an exciting season for the customers.

當我們與客戶交談時，我們感到非常高興，因為我們制定了計劃，將在 2025 年再舉辦一次精彩的萬聖節。零售商們非常高興今年能提高標準，並繼續為顧客帶來一個令人興奮的季節。

Great, thanks very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Jim Salera, Stephens Inc.

吉姆·薩萊拉（Jim Salera），史蒂芬斯公司（Stephens Inc.）

Yeah, good morning. Thanks for taking our question. I wanted to shift gears and maybe ask a little bit on the salty snacks piece of the portfolio, because salty as a category has been pressured this year. And yet it seems like you guys are seeing strength in both Dot's and SkinnyPop, which I think play in kind of different value propositions, one obviously more better for you, one more indulgent.

是的，早安。感謝您回答我們的問題。我想換個話題，也許可以問一下產品組合中鹹味零食的部分，因為今年鹹味零食作為一個類別受到了壓力。然而，看起來你們都看到了 Dot 和 SkinnyPop 的優勢，我認為它們體現了不同的價值主張，一個顯然對你更有利，一個則更加放縱。

Can you just speak to what you're seeing there that's allowing you to deliver kind of above category trends? And then maybe speak to any opportunities to increase multi-back distribution because that's something you guys called out in the prepared remarks.

您能否簡單談談您所看到的是什麼，讓您能夠提供超越類別趨勢的東西？然後也許談談增加多後衛分佈的任何機會，因為這是你們在準備好的評論中提到的。

Yes. So first of all, both Dot's -- pretty much our entire portfolio in salty snacks does have a permissible and premium halo. Popcorn, clearly, SkinnyPop is pretty obvious. But as you think about pretzels, pretzels are perceived as better for you than many other salty snacks. So even Dot's has a bit of that permissibility halo.

是的。首先，Dot 的鹹味小吃幾乎全部都帶有可接受和優質的光環。爆米花，顯然，SkinnyPop 非常明顯。但是當你想到椒鹽脆餅時，人們就會認為椒鹽脆餅比許多其他鹹味小吃更有益於健康。因此，即使是 Dot 也具有一點這種允許光環。

Across those businesses, we just continue to see strong consumer acceptance and momentum. As we bought those businesses, they were relatively nascent. So continue to have upside in driving household penetration, just getting more consumers to be aware of the brands, continued opportunities to gain distribution.

在這些業務中，我們持續看到消費者強勁的接受度和發展動能。當我們收購這些企業時，它們仍處於相對新興階段。因此，繼續推動家庭滲透具有上升空間，只需讓更多消費者了解品牌，即可繼續獲得分銷機會。

And now we've really dialed up the marketing with new packaging on SkinnyPop, our Jennifer Aniston program, exclusive flavors on Dot's like Buffalo that have generated a lot of consumer interest and fit into some important tentpole events around sports and football. And then price pack architecture has been another opportunity of just continuing to fill out all the sizes and price points.

現在，我們透過 SkinnyPop 的新包裝、珍妮佛安妮斯頓計畫、Dot 的獨家口味（如 Buffalo）真正加大了行銷力度，這些都引起了大量消費者的興趣，並融入了體育和足球領域的一些重要活動。然後，價格包架構就成為繼續填補所有尺寸和價格點的另一個機會。

So between flavor innovation, price pack architecture, engaging with the consumer, there just continues to be momentum. And we've also launched some innovation that is kind of between the seams of some of our categories.

因此，在口味創新、價格包裝架構和與消費者的互動之間，仍存在著持續的動力。我們也推出了一些介於某些產品類別之間的創新。

So for example, Reese's peanut butter filled pretzels, which has recently hit the market, which is a phenomenal product that leverages our sweet and salty together. And then you hit multipacks, and I'd say that's just another lever of growth. Frankly, multipacks are of significant size in salty snacks, and we're really filling out our portfolio there, both in terms of single items as well as leveraging the breadth of our portfolio to deliver. So we're continuing to expand the SKUs in that space and gain more distribution there.

例如，Reese's 最近上市的花生醬椒鹽脆餅，是一款將甜味和鹹味完美融合的非凡產品。然後你推出了多包裝產品，我想說這只是另一個成長槓桿。坦白說，多包裝在鹹味零食中佔有相當大的份額，而且我們正在充實我們的產品組合，無論是在單品方面，還是在利用我們產品組合的廣度來交付方面。因此，我們將繼續擴大該領域的 SKU 並獲得更多分銷。

Great. And maybe just one more thought on multipacks. Are you able to leverage some of the innovations that you have and kind of package that together in sort of kind of an innovation-centric multipack offering that would highlight some of the different innovations you have across the portfolio and make that a little bit more front and center and maybe allow the consumer to kind of try all your innovations in one package?

偉大的。也許還有關於多包裝的另一個想法。您是否能夠利用您現有的一些創新，將它們打包成一種以創新為中心的多包裝產品，從而突出您在整個產品組合中的一些不同創新，並使其更加突出和集中，並可能允許消費者在一個包裝中嘗試所有的創新？

Yeah, we certainly can combine across the portfolio. For example, we've done a Reese's one that we put together that included our Reese's animal crackers, our Reese's filled pretzels. So yes, we're doing a lot of consumer insight work to optimize what are the most compelling combinations across our portfolio. And we've really just gotten some of these multipacks into the market. So this is an area where there's a lot of upside ahead of us.

是的，我們當然可以整合整個投資組合。例如，我們製作了 Reese's 產品，其中包括 Reese's 動物餅乾和 Reese's 夾心椒鹽脆餅。所以是的，我們正在做大量的消費者洞察工作，以優化我們產品組合中最引人注目的組合。我們確實剛剛將一些多件裝產品推向市場。因此，這是一個我們有很大發展潛力的領域。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科（Robert Moskow），TD Cowen。

And I just want to extend my congratulations to you, Michele, for such a great track record and creating so much value at Hershey over the years. I wish you the best. And I wanted to ask, though, about the instant consumable part of the business. I think you say in the press release -- or the transcript that everyday chocolate as a category was up 6.7%. Your everyday chocolate is up less than that.

我只想向你表示祝賀，米歇爾，多年來，你取得瞭如此出色的業績，為好時公司創造瞭如此多的價值。祝你一切順利。不過，我想問一下有關即食消費品業務的部分。我想您在新聞稿或文字記錄中說過，日常巧克力這個類別的銷量上漲了 6.7%。您每天吃的巧克力比這還少。

And I wanted to know how you would gauge your competitiveness in that segment of the market right now. I thought this is the part where you felt like you had more work to do. Are you seeing any improvement?

我想知道您現在如何衡量自己在該細分市場中的競爭力。我認為這是讓你感覺還有更多工作要做的部分。您看到任何改善了嗎？

And then one extra thing. I think you said that you thought that the category growth rate may not be as strong in the back half because of comparisons. Can you be more specific what those comparisons were? I don't recall from last year.

還有一件事。我認為您說過，由於比較，您認為下半年類別成長率可能不那麼強勁。您能更具體地說明這些比較是什麼嗎？我不記得去年的事了。

Yeah, so I'll start on instant consumables. We do feel like we have made progress there, and our numbers demonstrate that in instant consumable, we are now gaining share and growing ahead of the category. We feel good about the actions we put in place relative to partnering on our gold standard planograms, which enabled us to expand distribution, get more breadth of our portfolio on the shelves to make the shelves even more productive. And we think that, that will continue going forward.

是的，所以我將從即時消耗品開始。我們確實感覺到我們在那裡取得了進展，我們的數據表明，在即食消費品領域，我們現在正在獲得市場份額並領先於其他類別。我們對於我們在黃金標準商品規劃圖合作方面採取的行動感到滿意，這使我們能夠擴大分銷範圍，在貨架上展示更廣泛的產品組合，從而使貨架更加高效。我們認為這種情況將會持續下去。

So we feel good about the program that we committed to and executed in the first half of the year.

因此，我們對上半年承諾並執行的計劃感到滿意。

Take-home is where we have seen some pressure. That's where we've had more pressure on the business, particularly from private label and some of the better-for-you and insurgent brands. And it's one of the reasons that as we launched Oreo, we're really focusing on take-home because we believe innovation is what's really needed to capture shelf space and to capture the consumers' mind share of the take-home set.

我們看到，帶回家的東西存在著一些壓力。這就是我們的業務面臨更大壓力的地方，特別是來自自有品牌和一些對你更有利的品牌和叛亂品牌。這也是我們推出奧利奧時真正關注外帶產品的原因之一，因為我們相信創新是佔領貨架空間和贏得消費者外帶產品心智份額的真正需求。

Relative to year-on-year comparisons, the comparisons are particularly tough in Q4, as that's when we really started to ramp up our big innovation for '25 at the end of '24. So that's really what's driving that lap.

與去年同期相比，第四季的比較尤其困難，因為那是我們在 24 年底真正開始加大 25 年重大創新的時期。所以這才是真正推動這一圈的原因。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

亞歷克西亞·霍華德，伯恩斯坦。

Good morning everyone and congratulations, Michele. Wishing you all the best for your retirement. And welcome to Kirk. First question, could you talk about the pace of innovation and how it stepped up over the last couple of years? It feels as though you're really firing on all cylinders now.

大家早安，恭喜你，米歇爾。祝您退休後一切順利。歡迎來到柯克。第一個問題，您能談談創新的步伐以及過去幾年它是如何加快的嗎？感覺你現在真的全力以赴了。

And I'm wondering if you're able to quantify exactly how things have stepped up? And are you at the pace that you would like to be after maybe a quieter period during COVID and the global supply chain reductions?

我想知道您是否能夠量化事情進展的具體情況？在新冠疫情和全球供應鏈減少的一段較為平靜的時期之後，您的發展速度是否達到了您想要的速度？

Yes, so you're absolutely right about that. We have dialed up our innovation. We measure our innovation as a percent of net sales and try and target where we think we need to be to really fully leverage that innovation without overleveraging innovation at the expense of the core, because we know the core is highly profitable and want to make sure we're focused on that. Our levels are up significantly versus 2019.

是的，你說得完全正確。我們已經啟動了我們的創新。我們將創新作為淨銷售額的百分比來衡量，並嘗試瞄準我們認為需要真正充分利用創新的地方，但又不會以犧牲核心為代價過度利用創新，因為我們知道核心利潤很高，並希望確保我們專注於此。與 2019 年相比，我們的水準大幅上升。

What we're seeing in the category, frankly, is a little bit more innovation is absolutely necessary in order to compete, particularly for shelf space, with some of the insurgent brands and also private label. And innovation is also perceived as value from the consumers who are looking for value.

坦白說，我們在這個類別中看到的是，為了與一些新興品牌和自有品牌競爭，特別是在貨架空間方面，絕對有必要進行更多的創新。而創新也被尋求價值的消費者視為價值。

So I do think that we've done a really nice job of getting to a good stride as we look to '26, and also getting innovations out there that we do think can really play a sustainable role in the category. If you think about the innovation that we've put forth in sweets, around Jolly Rancher Ropes, Freeze Dried, the Shaq brand, our M&A in Sour Strips, really strategic in terms of hitting new consumers and new occasions.

因此，我確實認為，展望 26 年，我們已經取得了很大的進步，並且取得了我們認為能夠在該類別中發揮可持續作用的創新。如果您想想我們在糖果領域提出的創新，圍繞 Jolly Rancher Ropes、Freeze Dried、Shaq 品牌，以及我們在 Sour Strips 方面的併購，這些創新在吸引新消費者和新場合方面確實具有戰略意義。

And then also some really big innovation such as the Oreo one that we announced that we think gives us a good blend of news, incrementality and disruption.

然後還有一些真正重大的創新，像是我們宣布的奧利奧創新，我們認為它為我們帶來了新聞、增量和顛覆的良好融合。

Great. And as a follow-up, it seems to me that there may be some incremental headwinds to consumer demand in indulgent snacking as we enter 2026, the GLP-1 pill version coming out, potential SNAP benefit reduction at the individual state level in terms of what SNAP can be spent on and soda and candy maybe coming out of that. How are you thinking about that as a potential impact next year? Obviously, the innovation, the marketing are obviously going to counter that. But is that something that we should be factoring in?

偉大的。接下來，我認為，隨著我們進入 2026 年，GLP-1 藥丸版本的推出，各州的 SNAP 福利可能會減少（就 SNAP 的支出而言），並且可能出現蘇打水和糖果等商品的減少，因此，消費者對零食的需求可能會逐漸減少。您認為這會對明年產生什麼潛在影響？顯然，創新和行銷顯然會解決這個問題。但這是我們應該考慮的因素嗎？

Yes. So I'd say, first of all, relative to GLP-1s, we continue to see no material impact in '25. Certainly, we are always monitoring very closely. But at this point, we're not expecting it to be significant in '26. We broadly look at the consumer trend as it relates to health and wellness.

是的。所以我想說，首先，相對於 GLP-1，我們在 25 年仍然沒有看到任何實質的影響。當然，我們一直在密切關注。但目前，我們預計它在 26 年不會產生重大影響。我們廣泛地關注與健康和保健相關的消費趨勢。

As you know, there's been, over time, a continuous pressure of consumers being more and more interested in products that have those types of benefits. And as well, we always watch kind of the national conversation around health and how that may evolve and change anything. So we're closely monitoring that to make sure our portfolio has offerings that appeal to all consumers' desires.

如您所知，隨著時間的推移，消費者對具有此類好處的產品的興趣越來越大。此外，我們也一直在關注有關健康的全國性討論以及它如何發展和改變一切。因此，我們正在密切監控，以確保我們的產品組合能夠滿足所有消費者的需求。

As it relates to SNAP, the way that the rollout is slated, we aren't expecting material impact in '26 and '27. Frankly, given the choice of reducing SNAP or removing CMG, we're less concerned with removing CMG, because it does still give the consumer SNAP dollars to fund their groceries, but they can also choose to spend on confection. As we look beyond '27, it is something that we are monitoring to factor into our planning.

就其與 SNAP 相關而言，按照計劃的推出方式，我們預計 26 年和 27 年不會產生實質影響。坦白說，如果可以選擇減少 SNAP 或取消 CMG，我們不太擔心取消 CMG，因為它仍然為消費者提供 SNAP 資金來資助他們的食品雜貨，但他們也可以選擇花錢購買糖果。當我們展望 27 年以後時，我們會將其納入我們的規劃中。

Thank you very much and wishing you all the best for the future.

非常感謝您，並祝福您未來一切順利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Leah Jordan, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的利亞喬丹 (Leah Jordan)。

Thank you. Good morning. Just wanted to go back to the pricing discussion, see if you can help us understand the phasing of the pricing actions you're making in the back half and into '26. And I guess, ultimately, why does taking this magnitude of pricing make sense now given the assumption for 1% elasticity as it's often just better to keep people in the category versus trying to win them back later?

謝謝。早安.只是想回到定價討論，看看您是否可以幫助我們了解您在下半年和 26 年採取的定價行動的階段性安排。我想，歸根結底，考慮到 1% 的彈性假設，為什麼現在採取這種定價幅度是有意義的，因為讓人們留在該類別中通常比以後再試圖贏回他們更好？

I mean, I'll start and throw it over to you. So certainly, I think pricing makes sense as we look at the continuous pressures that we've had from cocoa pricing on our P&L. We are committed to margin recovery and pricing to cover inflation over time. So that is part of our long-term strategy. We've said all along we were going to watch prices.

我的意思是，我會開始並將其拋給你。因此，當我們考慮到可可定價對我們的損益表造成的持續壓力時，我認為定價是合理的。我們致力於恢復利潤率並定價以彌補長期通貨膨脹。這是我們長期策略的一部分。我們一直說我們會關注價格。

And certainly, if we could delay taking an increase, do so, but we think that's important.

當然，如果我們可以推遲升息，我們會這樣做，但我們認為這很重要。

We also believe we're still delivering, and we know we're still delivering compelling value across our portfolio. Over 75% of our items are under the $4 price point. And frankly, we're in pretty good shape on that as we look at where we are relative to the other snacking options in the marketplace.

我們也相信我們仍在交付產品，我們知道我們仍在透過我們的產品組合交付引人注目的價值。我們超過 75% 的商品價格低於 4 美元。坦白說，當我們看看我們相對於市場上其他零食選擇的地位時，我們在這方面處於相當良好的狀態。

As we think about 2025, in particular, in terms of impact of pricing, if you think about the rest of the year, we have about 40% of our second half orders that aren't impacted by pricing, given the predominance of seasons in the back half. So between seasons and then also the support behind Oreo and the momentum there, we're not going to get as full an impact in the back half.

當我們考慮 2025 年時，特別是從定價的影響角度來看，如果考慮今年剩餘時間，考慮到下半年季節的主導性，我們下半年約有 40% 的訂單不會受到定價的影響。因此，在賽季之間以及奧利奧背後的支持和動力，我們不會在後半段產生那麼大的影響。

Steve, I don't know if you want to talk about anything more broadly going forward.

史蒂夫，我不知道你是否想就未來更廣泛的事宜進行討論。

I would just say that for this year, the impact is about 2 points to the enterprise on the top line. And then obviously, most of that is going to be in the fourth quarter. And then as we look to next year, it's more mid-teens impact. About 80% of the profit benefit will happen in '26, with a little bit of flow-through to '27 on seasons.

我只想說，就今年而言，這對企業的營收影響約為 2 個百分點。顯然，大部分成長將發生在第四季。展望明年，其影響將更加顯著。約 80% 的利潤收益將發生在 26 年，少量的利潤收益將流向 27 年。

And the first season to be impacted will be Easter '26. So hopefully, that gives you some idea of the profile.

第一個受到影響的季節將是26年的復活節。希望這能讓您對個人資料有所了解。

The other thing I would just add is we view pricing as a strategic way to allow us to continue to invest in our brands and to drive the long-term health of the category with new capabilities, et cetera.

我想補充的另一件事是，我們將定價視為一種策略方式，使我們能夠繼續投資於我們的品牌，並透過新功能等推動該類別的長期健康發展。

That's very helpful. Thank you.

這非常有幫助。謝謝。

David Palmer, Evercore ISI.

大衛·帕爾默（David Palmer），Evercore ISI。

Congrats, Michele. And also congrats to Kirk, and welcome. A quick follow-up on the pricing. Does that mid-teens pricing, is that inclusive of tariff-related pricing? I'm assuming so.

恭喜，米歇爾。同時也祝賀柯克，歡迎他。快速跟進定價。這個十幾美元的定價是否包括與關稅相關的定價？我認為是這樣。

And if so, what happens if we do see that exemption from cocoa in the near term? Does that get adjusted? How should we think about that? And I have a follow-up.

如果確實如此，那麼如果我們在短期內看到可可豁免，會發生什麼事？這樣會調整嗎？我們該如何看待這個問題？我還有一個後續問題。

Sure. Yes. Just to be crystal clear, the pricing has nothing to do with tariffs. This is strictly a catch-up on cocoa component. And as we said, we're not fully caught up even on the '25 inflation yet.

當然。是的。需要明確的是，定價與關稅無關。這嚴格來說是對可可成分的追趕。正如我們所說，我們甚至還沒有完全趕上 25 年的通貨膨脹。

All right. So are you currently having discussions where you're talking about two different levels if we see -- I mean, is there a dual track discussion happening on that through year-end? Because I would imagine there's one window. So how are you thinking about that?

好的。那麼，如果我們看到的話，您目前是否正在進行關於兩個不同層次的討論——我的意思是，到年底是否會就此進行雙軌討論？因為我想像那裡有一扇窗。那麼您對此有何看法？

Yes. I think it's too early. This is now in the market. As we talked about earlier, we want to make sure we execute this with excellence, see what the elasticities look like, and then see what happens. We said we have some optimism relative to tariffs going forward, particularly on cocoa, and we'll continue to watch the cocoa markets, but too early to think about that next step.

是的。我認為還太早。目前該產品已在市場上銷售。正如我們之前所討論的，我們希望確保出色地執行這項任務，看看彈性如何，然後看看會發生什麼。我們表示，我們對未來的關稅持樂觀態度，特別是對可可的關稅，我們將繼續關注可可市場，但現在考慮下一步還為時過早。

And you mentioned 80% of that would flow through next year in the previous answer. If we just were to back up and just look at that North American confectionery price mix flow through in '26, what sort of flow-through should we be expecting from that level of pricing in '26?

您在先前的回答中提到其中 80% 將會流到明年。如果我們回顧一下並看看 26 年北美糖果價格組合的流通情況，那麼我們應該對 26 年的定價水準期待什麼樣的流通？

Yeah, I think we're going to begin to see mid-teens. Again, overall for US CMD, we'll start from the first quarter. And then obviously, as we talked about with Easter being the first season, there will be a pretty quick start with the new pricing next year for that business.

是的，我認為我們將會開始看到十幾歲的年輕人。再次，總體而言，對於美國 CMD，我們將從第一季開始。然後顯然，正如我們所說的，復活節是第一個季節，明年該業務的新定價將很快開始。

Got it. So we should be expecting double-digit price mix to be flowing through in '26, starting in '26?

知道了。那麼，從 2026 年開始，我們是否應該預期 2026 年會出現兩位數的價格組合？

That's right. Yes.

這是正確的。是的。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

麥可拉弗里、派珀桑德勒。

Thank you. Good morning, and congrats as well, Michele.

謝謝。早上好，也恭喜你，米歇爾。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Just wanted to come back to the color you gave on the 2026 gross margin recovery. Can you give a sense -- you've talked about how it reflects the pricing and the cost savings. But can you give a sense of what assumptions that reflects for cocoa and maybe how much you're already covered for 2026 at this point as well?

只是想回到您對 2026 年毛利率復甦的預測。您能否給出一種感覺——您已經談到它如何反映定價和成本節約。但是，您能否說明這反映了可可的哪些假設，以及目前您對 2026 年的預測有多高？

Sure, yeah, we won't share specifics on coverage for 2026 other than to say our policy hasn't changed. We continue to follow our policy. We still have an expectation, as we talked about, that cocoa is ultimately going to come down. So we're factoring that into our thinking around coverage and the structures that we're using to hedge.

當然，是的，我們不會分享 2026 年保險的具體細節，只是說我們的保單沒有改變。我們將繼續遵循我們的政策。正如我們所說的，我們仍然預計可可價格最終會下降。因此，我們在考慮覆蓋範圍和用於對沖的結構時會考慮到這一點。

But we are still, based on what we see today, seeing inflationary cocoa for '26. And again, part of that's based on some of the hedging benefits that we carried into '25 and off that base into 2026. Now we'll watch closely what happens with cocoa in the balance of the year, and that could move around. But right now, we're expecting it to be inflationary.

但根據我們今天看到的情況，我們仍然認為26年可可價格將出現通膨。再次強調，部分原因在於我們延續到 2025 年的一些對沖收益，並以此為基礎延續到 2026 年。現在我們將密切關註今年餘下時間可可的行情，其走勢可能會有所波動。但目前，我們預計會出現通貨膨脹。

Okay. That's helpful. And just as far as a follow-up on the tariff mitigation. You mentioned you're not obviously pricing for that yet. You said that you will mitigate your tariff exposure over time if they endure.

好的。這很有幫助。關於關稅減免的後續行動。您提到您顯然尚未對此進行定價。您說過，如果關稅持續下去，您將逐漸減輕關稅風險。

Is that just pricing? Or do you have other levers? What do those plans look like?

這只是定價嗎？或者您還有其他手段嗎？這些計劃是什麼樣的？

Yeah, right now, we're focused on what we can do in the supply chain. We've got the benefit of a very agile supply chain. We've invested a lot in agility, automation, a lot of cross-border opportunities. And so we're going to continue to optimize the supply chain part of this.

是的，現在，我們專注於我們可以在供應鏈中做的事情。我們受益於非常靈活的供應鏈。我們在敏捷性、自動化和大量跨境機會方面投入了大量資金。因此，我們將繼續優化供應鏈部分。

We've done some of that already. I will say for this year, the impact is relatively small. But as we go forward, that's going to be, I'll say, the principal focus until we see what happens with tariffs long term.

我們已經做了一些這樣的事。我想說，就今年而言，影響力相對較小。但隨著我們繼續前進，我想說，這將是主要關注點，直到我們看到長期關稅會發生什麼。

Would that be just a different country of origin shift? Or what supply chain flexibility is there to impact the tariffs?

這是否只是原籍國的轉變？或者說，供應鏈彈性如何影響關稅？

Yeah, I mean there are impacts of where we manufacture. We've got capacity here in the U.S. for some things. It's a mix of what we in-source, outsource, and what countries that is located in.

是的，我的意思是我們的生產地點會產生影響。我們在美國擁有生產某些產品的能力。它是我們內部採購、外部採購、以及所在國家的混合體。

So it's sort of all of those things.

所以這就是所有這些事情。

Okay, great. Thanks so much.

好的，太好了。非常感謝。

Scott Marks, Jefferies.

史考特馬克斯，傑富瑞。

Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking our questions and again, congrats, Michele, on a great career. And congrats to Kirk coming in and taking over. I wanted to ask a little bit about the cocoa supply dynamics. You made some comments in the prepared remarks around some investments in new origins. You made some comments about Ivory Coast seeing an increase in fertilizer usage.

嘿，早安。非常感謝您回答我們的問題，再次恭喜 Michele 取得如此輝煌的職業生涯。恭喜柯克接任並領導公司。我想問一下有關可可供應動態的問題。您在準備好的發言中就一些新起源的投資發表了一些評論。您對科特迪瓦化肥使用量增加發表了一些評論。

So just wondering, as we think about maybe the go-forward supply, how much recoveries may be expected to come from that West Africa region relative to how much is expected to come from sources outside of the West Africa region?

所以，我們很好奇，當我們考慮未來的供應時，預計有多少石油回收量來自西非地區，相對於有多少石油回收量來自西非地區以外的地區？

Sure. I mean, as we talked about, I think overall, we feel there are good signs on the cocoa market, some of which we're seeing now and some we expect. You saw data recently that grinds have come down substantially sort of high single digits and could be heading lower. Butter ratios have come down from their peak, suggesting some inventory building there potentially. The current crop, we continue to expect a modest surplus and see next year's main crop looking quite strong.

當然。我的意思是，正如我們所討論的，我認為總體而言，我們感覺可可市場出現了一些好的跡象，其中一些是我們現在看到的，而有些是我們預期的。您最近看到的數據顯示，研磨量已大幅下降，約為個位數，並且可能繼續下降。黃油比率已從峰值回落，表明可能存在一些庫存增加。對於目前的作物，我們繼續預計會出現適度的盈餘，並認為明年的主要作物看起來相當強勁。

So I'd say all of those feel good at this point. As we talked about in the prepared remarks, we're seeing more fertilizer use, some better agriculture practices as it's more profitable to farm cocoa.

所以我想說現在所有這些都感覺很好。正如我們在準備好的演講中談到的，我們看到化肥的使用越來越多，農業實踐也越來越好，因為種植可可的利潤更高。

And then to your question, I think we're going to continue to see the origins outside of West Africa continue to invest and play a larger role. Of course, we've been pivoting into that space already as many others have as well. And I think those other origins have responded by investing more and kind of picking up some of that mantle of a bigger role. We also have seen more recently speculators have reduced positions and so forth. So I think we can get to a potential larger surplus without further recovery in West Africa and new origins growing double digits and demand continues to decline.

然後回答你的問題，我認為我們將繼續看到西非以外的起源繼續投資並發揮更大的作用。當然，正如許多其他人一樣，我們已經轉向該領域。我認為其他來源地已經做出了回應，投入了更多資金，並承擔了更重要的角色。最近我們也看到投機者減少了部位等等。因此，我認為，即使西非沒有進一步復甦，新產地數量沒有兩位數成長，需求也沒有持續下降，我們也能獲得更大的盈餘。

So I think we could see more of a fall in the second half.

所以我認為下半年我們可能會看到更大的下滑。

Got it. Appreciate the answer on that. And then last one for me. Just you made some comments about convenience stores, obviously, traffic still being down, but you were still able to grow parts of your instant consumables business there. Just wondering, as you think about maybe the go forward in C-store, what kind of response have you had from convenience retailers in terms of some of your new initiatives and innovations?

知道了。感謝您對此的回答。這是我的最後一個。剛才您對便利商店發表了一些評論，顯然，客流量仍然在下降，但您仍然能夠在那裡發展部分即食消費品業務。只是想知道，當您考慮 C-store 的發展時，便利零售商對您的一些新舉措和創新有何反應？

And how are you thinking about the outlook for that space?

您如何看待該領域的前景？

Yeah, I mean we've had very strong results from the retailers relative to those new initiatives. As we shared in the script, some of the gold standard planogram has certainly resulted in significant category growth for retailers. And we always go to the retailers with programs that we believe will not only grow our own business, but will actually grow their category, because that's a win-win for both of us. And we know that we've seen significant high single-digit growth in the categories where we've put those plans into place.

是的，我的意思是，相對於這些新舉措，我們從零售商那裡獲得了非常強勁的業績。正如我們在腳本中分享的那樣，一些黃金標準規劃圖確實為零售商帶來了顯著的品類成長。我們總是向零售商提供一些計劃，我們相信這些計劃不僅能發展我們自己的業務，而且實際上還能擴大他們的產品類別，因為這對我們雙方來說都是雙贏的。我們知道，在實施這些計劃的類別中，我們已經看到了顯著的高個位數成長。

So there's a lot of momentum with the programming in place.

因此，現有的程式工作具有很大的發展動能。

On top of the momentum we already have, we have innovation coming in the second half, which should further advance the momentum and growth that we're seeing on the portfolio there. So even if there are continued declines in trips, I think what we feel good about is that we've been able to still drive our business and drive conversion despite where trips are.

除了我們已有的勢頭之外，下半年我們還將推出創新，這將進一步推動我們在那裡看到的投資組合的勢頭和成長。因此，即使旅行次數持續下降，我認為讓我們感到高興的是，無論旅行在哪裡，我們仍然能夠推動業務並推動轉換。

Got it, thanks so much we'll pass it on.

明白了，非常感謝，我們會傳達的。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的克里斯凱裡 (Chris Carey)。

Hi, good morning, everyone. One quick modeling question, then something more strategic. On the modeling dynamic, which, well, just has an impact on your model, the tax rate coming up for the year, some evolution of tax credits. Steve, is that a permanent dynamic going forward? Or is that unique to the year? Just maybe a couple of sound bites on what drove that evolution and how durable it is?

大家好，早安。一個快速建模問題，然後是一些更具策略性的問題。關於建模動態，嗯，這只會對您的模型產生影響，今年的稅率，稅收抵免的一些演變。史蒂夫，這會是未來發展的永久動力嗎？還是這是今年獨有的？也許您能簡單談談推動這一演變的因素以及這種演變的持久性嗎？

And then I have a follow-up.

然後我有一個後續問題。

Sure, yeah, happy to take that one. The tax has been a challenge. We talked about it in the first quarter call as well. And I think as we get to this point in the year, it's been even more of a challenge.

當然，是的，很高興接受這個。稅收一直是個挑戰。我們也在第一季的電話會議上討論了這個問題。我認為，當我們到達今年的這個階段時，挑戰就更大了。

It's very hard to say what is, in the tax world, as much as changing right now, what is permanent. And so I can talk about what's happening now and how we think about it for '26 a little bit.

在稅務領域，很難說什麼是正在發生的變化，什麼又是永久的。因此我可以談談現在發生的事情以及我們對 26 年的看法。

But the biggest factors right now are a couple of things. One is, we've talked about before, our teams are being very creative in areas like cocoa sourcing and procurement. And those drive a great ROI for the company, but there are some tax consequences relative to our overall rate that are a bit dilutive. So that's one factor. And I would think about that as -- I don't know that I'd say it's sticky, but it's certainly a piece for this year, and I would imagine we'll see some of that next year.

但目前最重要的因素有幾件事。一是，我們之前談過，我們的團隊在可可採購等領域都非常有創意。這些為公司帶來了巨大的投資報酬率，但相對於我們的整體稅率，也有一些稅務後果，有點稀釋。這是一個因素。我會這麼想——我不知道我是否會說它很棘手，但它肯定是今年的一個主題，我想我們明年會看到一些這樣的主題。

A second piece, and you mentioned the tax credit strategy. The tax credit strategy is impacted by two things. One is our income is lower. And so there are limits on how much tax credit availability we have with that income level. And second, with all the change in the world of tax right now, some of the returns we're seeing on tax credits just aren't up to the standard that we look for when we pick those investments.

第二部分，您提到了稅收抵免策略。稅收抵免策略受到兩件事的影響。一是我們的收入較低。因此，我們在該收入水準上可獲得的稅收抵免額度是有限制的。其次，隨著目前稅收領域的各種變化，我們看到的一些稅收抵免回報並不符合我們選擇這些投資時所尋求的標準。

And I would see that as also being sticky. I think in the near term, there's not going to be a big change. And that's why you see the dial down between other income and expense and the tax rate kind of going in the opposite direction. And all of those together probably give us a 250 basis point headwind on economic tax rate right now that I would expect to carry forward into 2026. So that's the way I think.

我認為這也是棘手的。我認為短期內不會有重大變化。這就是為什麼你會看到其他收入和支出之間的差距以及稅率的下降趨勢相反。所有這些因素加在一起可能會為我們目前的經濟稅率帶來 250 個基點的阻力，我預計這種阻力將延續到 2026 年。這就是我的想法。

Beyond that, it's difficult to say. I mean, this is an area that's still evolving pretty quickly.

除此之外，就很難說了。我的意思是，這個領域仍在快速發展中。

Okay. Very helpful. Regarding 2026, it's a bit of a multilayered question, so apologies, but you have these great initiatives in place that are going to give you what sounds like a gross 500 basis point benefit to gross margin. When you think about the offsets which would get you in that sort of algorithm earnings growth next year, is there a way to frame how much you're thinking about that, which is tariffs relative to lingering cocoa inflation relative to the pricing that you're taking?

好的。非常有幫助。關於 2026 年，這是一個多層次的問題，所以很抱歉，但您已經實施了這些偉大的舉措，這些舉措聽起來將為您帶來 500 個基點的毛利率收益。當您考慮在明年透過此演算法實現獲利成長的抵銷措施時，有沒有辦法確定您對此的考慮程度，即相對於持續存在的可可通膨的關稅與您所採取的定價之間的關係？

And then just connected to that, one of your peers reported last night, and we're seeing some, I guess, impact some months forward of more substantial pricing, which has been taken in Europe, and some of the elasticities, which are starting to emerge. Are you able to leverage those pricing actions in market and the volume impacts that we're beginning to see from an elasticity standpoint to, I guess, better serve you as you think about your own elasticities ahead of this kind of like substantial and appropriate price increase going into next year? So thanks for the gross margin and elasticity. I appreciate it.

與此相關，您的一位同事昨晚報告說，我們預計，幾個月後歐洲將採取更大規模的定價措施，這將產生一定影響，而且一些彈性因素也開始顯現。您是否能夠利用市場中的定價行為以及我們從彈性角度開始看到的數量影響，以便在您考慮明年這種大幅且適當的價格上漲之前的彈性時更好地為您服務？所以感謝毛利率和彈性。我很感激。

Sure. Well, maybe helpful on the EPS side, taking the first part of your question and just kind of walk through some of the puts and takes on '26 EPS. And again, kind of starting to say we can see a path now to being on-algorithm. And if a few things were to break, potential for more than that. But if I just step back on EPS, obviously, we're going to have pricing coming through next year.

當然。好吧，也許對 EPS 方面有幫助，回答你問題的第一部分，並簡單介紹一下 26 年 EPS 的一些影響和後果。再說一遍，我們現在可以看到一條通往演算法的道路。如果有幾件東西發生故障，則可能發生更多事故。但如果我只是回顧一下每股收益，顯然，我們將在明年制定定價。

We're going to have increased productivity and higher transformation savings. That was one of the things we called out on the call this morning.

我們將提高生產力並實現更高的轉型節約。這是我們今天早上在電話會議上提出的事情之一。

We'll see some greater scale in our core brands. So this is part of that smart complexity initiative that we referenced, being very thoughtful about how we leverage the core and drive the core. And that also leads to some margin accretion. And then we'll continue to press on tariffs relative to the cocoa exemption, and that's sort of out of our control, but continue to lean there.

我們將看到我們的核心品牌規模進一步擴大。因此，這是我們提到的智慧複雜性計劃的一部分，我們非常認真地考慮如何利用核心並推動核心。這也會導致利潤率的增加。然後，我們將繼續對與可可豁免相關的關稅施壓，這有點超出我們的控制範圍，但我們將繼續傾向於這一點。

As we talked about on the last question, tax is going to remain high. So I don't see that being any better next year. I probably look at that as a push to next year. And then on the other side, the delta, obviously, we talked about incremental cocoa inflation. Elasticities, we'll see what we're going to see there.

正如我們在上一個問題中談到的，稅收將保持在高位。所以我認為明年的情況不會有任何好轉。我可能將其視為明年的推動力。然後，另一方面，顯然，我們談論的是增量可可通膨。彈性，我們將會看到那裡會發生什麼。

But along with those elasticities, we'll have some absorption impact into the P&L. That is factored into our outlook in that 500 basis points, but that's something we have to account for. And then tariffs can also be a negative if they would happen to go the other way. So those are the kind of big moving pieces inside the puts and takes.

但隨著這些彈性的增加，我們會對損益產生一些吸收影響。這已計入我們 500 個基點的預測中，但這是我們必須考慮的因素。如果關稅改變，也可能產生負面影響。所以這些都是投入和產出中的大變動部分。

On the elasticity question, I think right now, we want to see how our assumptions in the market play out here. And like I talked about, I think, in an earlier question, we'll pivot if we need to, if we see something concerning on elasticities. We're investing behind our brands, strong innovation agenda. So everything is in place to make this a success, working closely with our customers, but we'll remain agile as we see this in the market.

關於彈性問題，我認為現在我們想看看我們的市場假設如何發揮作用。正如我之前提到的，我認為，如果我們發現彈性方面有問題，必要時我們就會做出調整。我們正在為我們的品牌和強大的創新計劃進行投資。因此，一切都已準備就緒，我們將與客戶密切合作，確保專案成功，但隨著市場狀況的變化，我們仍將保持敏捷的判斷。

Yeah, I mean at the highest level, I think Steve said this before, but we feel good about being on-algorithm for '26. And as we look at the puts and takes in the marketplace, we think that there are multiple paths to us seeing EPS be well into that double-digit range, pending what happens with tariffs and cocoa costs, which, of course, are the two biggest factors. That is with current cocoa and tariffs as they are that we achieved that on-algo.

是的，我的意思是，從最高層面來說，我認為史蒂夫以前就說過這個，但我們對 26 年的演算法感到很滿意。當我們觀察市場上的看跌期權和看漲期權時，我們認為，有多種途徑可以讓每股收益達到兩位數，這取決於關稅和可可成本的變化，當然，這是兩個最大的因素。正是在現有的可可和關稅條件下，我們才實現了這個目標。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ms. Naughton for closing remarks.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。我想將會議交還給諾頓女士，請她致閉幕詞。

Thank you all for joining us this morning, and we look forward to connecting over the coming days.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們，我們期待在接下來的幾天繼續交流。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。