Anywhere Real Estate Inc (HOUS) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Anywhere Real Estate first quarter 2024 earnings conference call via webcast.

    早安,歡迎透過網路直播參加 Anywhere Real Estate 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。

  • Today's call is being recorded and a written transcript will be made available in the Investor Information section of the company's website tomorrow.

    今天的電話會議正在錄音,明天將在公司網站的投資者資訊部分提供書面記錄。

  • A webcast replay will also be available on the company's website.

    該公司網站上也將提供網路廣播重播。

  • At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to anywhere Senior Vice President, Alicia Swift.

    現在,我想將會議交給高級副總裁艾麗西亞·斯威夫特(Alicia Swift)。

  • Please go ahead, Alicia.

    請繼續,艾麗西亞。

  • Alicia Swift - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury

    Alicia Swift - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury

  • Thank you, Gavin, and good morning and welcome to the first quarter 2024 for our earnings conference call for Anywhere Real Estate.

    謝謝你,Gavin,早安,歡迎來到 2024 年第一季參加我們的 Anywhere Real Estate 收益電話會議。

  • On the call with me today are Anywhere CEO and President, Ryan Schneider, and Chief Financial Officer, Charlotte Simonelli.

    今天與我通話的有 Anywhere 執行長兼總裁 Ryan Schneider 和財務長 Charlotte Simonelli。

  • As shown on slide 3 of the presentation, the Company will be making statements about its future results and other forward-looking statements during this call.

    如簡報投影片 3 所示,本公司將在本次電話會議期間發表有關其未來業績的聲明和其他前瞻性聲明。

  • These statements are based on current expectations and the current economic environment.

    這些陳述是基於當前的預期和當前的經濟環境。

  • Forward-looking statements, estimates and projections are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive antitrust and other litigation, regulatory and other uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of management, including among others, industry and macroeconomic developments Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements.

    前瞻性陳述、估計和預測本質上受到重大經濟、競爭性反壟斷和其他訴訟、監管和其他不確定性和意外事件的影響,其中許多因素超出了管理層的控制範圍,包括行業和宏觀經濟發展等實際結果可能有所不同前瞻性陳述中所明示或暗示的內容具有重大意義。

  • References made to April month to date in these remarks reflect data through April 21st, 2024.

    這些言論中提到的 4 月迄今的數據反映的是截至 2024 年 4 月 21 日的數據。

  • Our discussion on an open volume basis reflects like-for-like number of business days.

    我們對未平倉量的討論反映了同類工作天數。

  • The timing of the reference litigation payments can be impacted by developments in the proceedings.

    參考訴訟付款的時間可能會受到訴訟進展的影響。

  • The reference to core franchise in these remarks is the franchise segment, excluding relocation and lease.

    這些評論中所指的核心特許經營是指特許經營部分,不包括搬遷和租賃。

  • Finally, Charlotte pro forma 2024 for illustration financial range is not a financial forecast or guidance for 2024, it is provided purely to illustrate anywhere financial octane at home sale market for 2024 was $5 million to $5.5 million compared to the $4.1 million existing home sale market in 2023 as reported by the National Association of Realtors.

    最後,夏洛特預計2024 年財務範圍並非2024 年的財務預測或指導,其純粹是為了說明2024 年房屋銷售市場的財務辛烷值為500 萬至550 萬美元,而現有房屋銷售市場為410萬美元。

  • The illustration included higher mortgage joint venture earnings, higher variable expenses related to a higher existing home sales environment, including increasing commission splits and royalty rates, but makes no adjustments in performance of our underwriter joint venture refinance volume, corporate relocation business, free cash flow exclude the $100 million of one-time anticipated payments related to the litigation and the sudden send and tech legacy tax matter.

    例證包括較高的抵押貸款合資企業收益、與較高的現有房屋銷售環境相關的較高的可變費用,包括增加的佣金分成和特許權使用費,但沒有對我們的承銷商合資企業再融資金額、企業搬遷業務、自由現金流的業績進行調整不包括與訴訟以及突然發送和技術遺留稅務問題相關的 1 億美元一次性預期付款。

  • These assumptions are inherently subject to a high degree of uncertainty and risk.

    這些假設本質上受到高度不確定性和風險的影響。

  • Additionally, this illustration makes no assumptions regarding the potential financial impact of pending antitrust settlements or regulatory reform related to the communication negotiation or payment of fire broker commission.

    此外,本插圖未對懸而未決的反壟斷和解或與溝通談判或消防經紀人佣金支付相關的監管改革的潛在財務影響做出任何假設。

  • Fee are forward-looking statements for additional information.

    費用屬於前瞻性聲明,旨在提供更多資訊。

  • Important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are specified in our earnings release issued today as well as in our annual and quarterly SEC filings.

    我們今天發布的收益報告以及我們向 SEC 提交的年度和季度文件中詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的重要假設和因素。

  • For those who listen to the rebroadcast of this presentation, we remind you that the remarks made herein are as of today April 25th, and have not been updated subsequent to the initial earnings call.

    對於那些收聽重播本簡報的人,我們提醒您,本文中的言論截至今天 4 月 25 日,在首次財報電話會議後尚未更新。

  • And now I will turn the call over to our CEO and President, Ryan Schneider.

    現在我將把電話轉給我們的執行長兼總裁 Ryan Schneider。

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Alicia, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,艾莉西亞,大家早安。

  • I'm excited by anyway real estate's position to drive success and to deliver value for our shareholders.

    無論如何,我對房地產推動成功並為股東創造價值的地位感到興奮。

  • We continue to demonstrate a powerful track record of delivery strategic foresight and innovation as we lead the industry through fast moving change.

    當我們引領產業快速變革時,我們將繼續展現出交付策略遠見和創新的強大記錄。

  • And I'm really excited about how our efforts transforming how we operate anchored in our meaningful cost reductions should translate to financial octane in more normal housing market.

    我真的很興奮,我們以有意義的成本削減為基礎,改變營運方式的努力將如何轉化為更正常的房地產市場的金融辛烷。

  • While the first quarter of 2024 was another tough time in the housing market, I'm proud of how our affiliated agents franchisees.

    雖然 2024 年第一季是房地產市場的另一個艱難時期,但我為我們的附屬代理商和特許經營商的表現感到自豪。

  • Employees help customers navigate ongoing complexities every day.

    員工每天幫助客戶應對持續存在的複雜情況。

  • Real estate agents guide consumers, whether the first-time homebuyer, the growing family in search of more space or the retiree relocating for a lifestyle reboot during the meaningful life moments that come with these big decisions, the value agents provide helps homebuyers and sellers achieve their dreams.

    房地產經紀人引導消費者,無論是首次購屋者、尋找更多空間的成長型家庭,或是搬遷重新生活方式的退休人員,在這些重大決定帶來的有意義的人生時刻,經紀人提供的價值幫助購屋者和賣家實現他們的夢想。

  • And I wanted to start the call by thanking them for their commitment.

    我想在通話開始時感謝他們的承諾。

  • In the first quarter of 2024, we delivered $1.1 billion of revenue and negative $17 million of operating EBITDA.

    2024 年第一季度,我們實現了 11 億美元的收入,營運 EBITDA 為負 1,700 萬美元。

  • Remember, this is the seasonally slow part of the year.

    請記住,這是一年中季節性緩慢的時期。

  • And we are in a very difficult housing market with a record low level of unit sales.

    我們正處於一個非常困難的房地產市場,單位銷售量創歷史新低。

  • But as we move into the selling season, I'm very excited because our March operating EBITDA was solidly positive.

    但當我們進入銷售季節時,我非常興奮,因為我們 3 月的經營 EBITDA 非常穩定。

  • We realized approximately $30 million of cost savings in the quarter and are on track to deliver our $100 million permanent cost savings target this year, and we are working hard to exceed that initial target.

    我們在本季度實現了約 3000 萬美元的成本節省,今年預計將實現 1 億美元的永久成本節省目標,並且我們正在努力超越該初始目標。

  • Our capital allocation priorities remain focused on paying down debt and investing in the business.

    我們的資本配置重點仍集中在償還債務和投資業務。

  • And speaking of investment in the business.

    說到商業投資。

  • Unlike our competitors who are still pulling back given the challenging 2020 for housing market, we continue to invest in our business to position us for future growth and to streamline our company.

    與我們的競爭對手在 2020 年房地產市場充滿挑戰的情況下仍然撤退不同,我們繼續投資於我們的業務,為未來的成長做好準備,並精簡我們的公司。

  • So for example, growing our franchise network, one of our most important strategic priorities by enhancing our value proposition for both new and existing franchisees we are bringing them new profit sources like upward title.

    例如,發展我們的特許經營網絡是我們最重要的策略重點之一,透過增強我們對新的和現有的特許經營商的價值主張,我們為他們帶來了新的利潤來源,例如向上的頭銜。

  • We are providing them excellent technology with our BoxWorks offering.

    我們透過 BoxWorks 產品為他們提供卓越的技術。

  • We are reducing their costs with products like our listings, direct technology and we are using anywhere as data scale to provide actionable franchisee insights to help them run their businesses better through our affiliate Insights tool.

    我們正在透過清單、直接技術等產品降低他們的成本,並且我們在任何地方使用資料規模來提供可操作的加盟商見解,幫助他們透過我們的附屬見解工具更好地經營業務。

  • Another strategic point is that we love and are strengthening our luxury leadership position.

    另一個策略點是我們熱愛並正在加強我們的奢侈品領導地位。

  • And remember, we sell more million-dollar-plus homes than anyone.

    請記住,我們售出的價值百萬美元以上的房屋比任何人都多。

  • Our Sotheby's International Realty brand continues to gain share as it consistently outperforms both the market and the rest of our portfolio, including again, in Q1, our Corcoran brand dominates the important New York City market and was ranked as the number one brand in Manhattan for the fourth consecutive year.

    我們的蘇富比國際地產品牌繼續獲得份額,因為它始終優於市場和我們其他產品組合,包括在第一季度,我們的Corcoran 品牌在重要的紐約市市場佔據主導地位,並被評為曼哈頓第一品牌連續第四年。

  • And we love expanding corporate on the franchise side with new cities like Boston and Portland coming online in Q1.

    我們喜歡在特許經營方面擴大公司規模,波士頓和波特蘭等新城市將在第一季上線。

  • And finally, we continue to demonstrate our preeminent position selling the most expensive homes in America just to share some fund data at the highest end of the market.

    最後,我們繼續展示我們在銷售美國最昂貴房屋方面的卓越地位,只是為了分享市場最高端的一些基金數據。

  • We currently have seven listings of $100 million plus homes with three of them under contract and three other [$300 million] plus homes through sales we closed in Q1.

    目前,我們有七套價值 1 億美元以上的房屋掛牌出售,其中三套已簽訂合同,另外三套 [3 億美元]以上的房屋是我們在第一季度完成銷售的。

  • Now we're also integrating and digitizing our brokerage and title operations, both agent and customer facing and back office.

    現在,我們也正在整合和數位化我們的經紀和產權業務,包括面向代理商和客戶的以及後台。

  • We are better assisting agents and customers consumers from contract to close, creating a more frictionless transaction experience.

    我們更好地協助代理商和客戶消費者從簽約到成交,創造更無摩擦的交易體驗。

  • This integrative services, a win for our agents as we provide them high value transaction coordination services as part of the value proposition, saving them time and hassle of either managing this work themselves are paying hundreds of dollars per transaction for someone else to handle it so that they could focus on earning new business.

    這種綜合服務對我們的代理商來說是一個勝利,因為我們為他們提供高價值的交易協調服務作為價值主張的一部分,為他們節省了時間和麻煩,因為他們自己管理這項工作,每筆交易需要為其他人支付數百美元來處理,因此他們可以專注於贏得新業務。

  • It's a win for consumers as we create a simpler transaction experience and a faster more seamless closing process.

    這對消費者來說是一場勝利,因為我們創造了更簡單的交易體驗和更快、更無縫的結算流程。

  • It is a win for anywhere as this should help us lower our title and mortgage capture should help assuming as this should help, our title and mortgage capture rates and should contribute to a lower cost base.

    這對任何地方來說都是一場勝利,因為這應該有助於我們降低我們的產權和抵押貸款捕獲率,應該有助於假設,因為這應該有助於我們的產權和抵押貸款捕獲率,並且應該有助於降低成本基礎。

  • This more integrated and high-quality service is now available in about third of the U.S., and we will be rolled out nationwide by the end of the year.

    這種更全面和高品質的服務現已覆蓋美國約三分之一的地區,並將於今年年底在全國推廣。

  • We are already seeing more than a third of transactions in available markets using the service.

    我們已經看到可用市場中超過三分之一的交易使用該服務。

  • And we're seeing usage rates above 50% in some of our earliest launch locations.

    我們發現,在一些最早推出的地點,使用率超過 50%。

  • We're also combining more of our brokerage and title back offices to drive more and consistently better service and lower costs.

    我們還將合併更多的經紀和產權後台辦公室,以推動更多、持續更好的服務並降低成本。

  • As I referred to in previous calls.

    正如我在之前的電話中提到的。

  • This is actually one of the best examples of where we're able to use generative AI. to improve our production processes as we continue to continue our general AI. agenda across many parts of the company have.

    這實際上是我們能夠使用生成式人工智慧的最佳例子之一。在我們繼續發展通用人工智慧的同時,改進我們的生產流程。公司許多部門都有議程。

  • Finally, we really like some of the recent innovative and exciting investment opportunities we're finding to leverage our strategic assets.

    最後,我們非常喜歡最近發現的一些創新和令人興奮的投資機會,以利用我們的策略資產。

  • First, as single-family rental companies are shifting to selling their homes directly to consumers.

    首先,單戶租賃公司正在轉向直接向消費者出售房屋。

  • We are finding that our national reach, our curated high quality leads network and the ability to integrate title are creating opportunities for us to be a great partner in selling their homes.

    我們發現,我們的全國影響力、精心策劃的高品質銷售網絡以及整合產權的能力正在為我們創造機會,成為銷售房屋的優秀合作夥伴。

  • Second, we like our innovation around different ways to sell homes and have been selling more luxury homes through auctions recently with our conscious auction business.

    其次,我們喜歡圍繞不同的房屋銷售方式進行創新,並且最近透過我們有意識的拍賣業務透過拍賣銷售了更多的豪華房屋。

  • And remember, the auction economic model is different as there is a buyer premium that we collect along with the seller commissions.

    請記住,拍賣經濟模型是不同的,因為我們收取買家佣金和賣家佣金。

  • Many of you saw the TV coverage of our recent New York City live auction.

    你們中的許多人都看到了我們最近紐約市現場拍賣的電視報道。

  • We've also recently hosted auctions in Hong Kong and Los Angeles and next month, Contreras auctions will be hosting the first ever live real estate auction at the historic Sotheby's London auction house with both Dubai and Hong Kong to follow later in 2024.

    我們最近也在香港和洛杉磯舉辦了拍賣會,下個月,Contreras 拍賣會將在歷史悠久的倫敦蘇富比拍賣行舉辦首次現場房地產拍賣,而杜拜和香港也將於 2024 年晚些時候舉行。

  • And third, while we don't talk about international much.

    第三,雖然我們不太談論國際。

  • We're seeing some interesting international expansions, especially in our Corcoran and Sotheby's International Realty brands.

    我們看到了一些有趣的國際擴張,尤其是我們的 Corcoran 和蘇富比國際地產品牌。

  • And remember for those two brands internationally, we do normal franchise agreements, not master franchisees in Q1, we opened four new SI., our franchise offices in Greater London and recently listed at $218 million penthouse.

    請記住,對於這兩個國際品牌,我們在第一季度簽訂了正常的特許經營協議,而不是主特許經營商,我們在大倫敦開設了四個新的SI.,我們的特許經營辦公室最近以2.18 億美元的頂樓公寓上市。

  • And we're seeing similar success in Dubai's thriving luxury real estate market where we just sold a $40 million homes.

    我們在杜拜蓬勃發展的豪華房地產市場也看到了類似的成功,我們剛剛售出了價值 4000 萬美元的房屋。

  • Now let me turn to housing.

    現在讓我談談住房問題。

  • The Q1 market was a continuation of 2023, which was one of the top US housing markets in the last 30 years.

    第一季市場是 2023 年的延續,2023 年是過去 30 年來美國最大的房地產市場之一。

  • Unit transactions in the quarter as an industry were down versus Q1 of 2023 as limited inventory and supply challenges continued to meet demand outpaces supply that showed up as higher prices in the market overall.

    與 2023 年第一季相比,本季的單位交易量有所下降,原因是有限的庫存和供應挑戰繼續滿足需求超過供應,這表現為市場整體價格上漲。

  • And we saw that in our book with more than 90% of the country having year-over-year price growth in the quarter.

    我們在書中看到,全國 90% 以上的地區本季價格年增。

  • It's hard to overstate how high mortgage rates are hurting housing, especially by keeping supply off the market and creating affordability issues.

    很難誇大高抵押貸款利率對住房造成的損害,特別是透過阻止供應進入市場並造成負擔能力問題。

  • And the recent inflation news has clearly put more headwind against the timing of future rate cuts.

    最近的通膨消息顯然為未來降息的時機帶來了更多阻力。

  • Now in our book Q. one was the first quarter of year over year close volume growth we've seen in about two years as our close volume was up 2% versus the prior year with units down 4% and price up 7%.

    現在,在我們的書中,問題一是我們在大約兩年內看到的第一季成交量同比增長,因為我們的成交量比上年增長了2%,單位數量下降了4%,價格上漲了7%。

  • Our luxury segment continued to outperform with our Sotheby's International Realty brand, seeing close volume up 7% year over year with about half of that from unit growth as it again meaningfully outperformed both the market and our portfolio.

    我們的蘇富比國際地產品牌的奢侈品細分市場繼續表現出色,成交量同比增長 7%,其中約一半來自單位增長,因為它再次明顯優於市場和我們的投資組合。

  • And I'm a little more optimistic about the future because our open volume, which represents new contracts and future closings, was up year over year and improved each month during the quarter.

    我對未來更加樂觀,因為我們的未平倉交易量(代表新合約和未來成交量)同比增長,並且在本季度每個月都有所改善。

  • And so far in April, our open volume is up 6% year over year.

    4月到目前為止,我們的未平倉量年增了6%。

  • We are seeing some improvement in areas like California and New York, where we have disproportionate own brokerage businesses with a meaningful piece of that improvement coming from growth in units, and we're beginning to see more growth in listings.

    我們看到加州和紐約等地區的情況有所改善,在這些地區,我們擁有不成比例的自有經紀業務,其中有意義的一部分改善來自單位的增長,而且我們開始看到掛牌數量的更多增長。

  • We saw listings growth in our portfolio up 4% year over year in the quarter.

    本季我們的投資組合中的掛牌數量年增 4%。

  • This is the first time in a couple of years, we saw that listings growth, and we're really excited about how listings growth is increasingly differentiated for us in luxury as our million-dollar-plus listings in the quarter were up 16% versus a year ago.

    這是我們幾年來第一次看到房源成長,我們對奢侈品房源成長的差異化感到非常興奮,因為本季價值百萬美元以上的房源成長了 16%,一年前。

  • Now, look, we're clearly at a low point in the cycle but the housing market is going to improve over time.

    現在,你看,我們顯然正處於週期的低點,但房地產市場將隨著時間的推移而改善。

  • And I still believe the medium term outlook for housing should be quite strong, fueled by demographic demand and a continued desire for homeownership, and I really like our financial octane in stronger housing markets.

    我仍然相信,在人口需求和對住房所有權的持續渴望的推動下,住房的中期前景應該相當強勁,而且我真的很喜歡我們在更強勁的住房市場中的金融辛烷值。

  • Now before I turn it over to Charlotte, there is substantial uncertainty in the industry in light of litigation and regulation developments since we last talked, we were excited for a level playing field on these topics and think there will be both interesting opportunities and challenges ahead.

    現在,在我將其交給夏洛特之前,鑑於自我們上次談話以來的訴訟和監管發展,該行業存在很大的不確定性,我們對這些主題的公平競爭環境感到興奮,並認為未來將會有有趣的機會和挑戰。

  • And we are bringing the same proactive thinking and leadership there that we've demonstrated relative to the competition in our litigation strategy.

    我們將在訴訟策略的競爭中展現出同樣的積極主動的思維和領導力。

  • And I also appreciate how the world continues to recognize anywhere real estate for its leadership anywhere was recently named to Fortune's America's Most Innovative Companies list for the 2nd year in a row and once again was named one of the World's Most Ethical Companies for the 13th consecutive year.

    我也很欣賞世界如何繼續認可任何地方房地產的領導地位,最近連續第二年被《財富》雜誌評為美國最具創新力的公司名單,並連續第13 年被評為全球最具商業道德的公司之一年。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Charlotte.

    那麼,讓我把它交給夏洛特。

  • Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Good morning, everyone.

    大家,早安。

  • We had solid financial and operational performance in the first quarter and continued to focus on what we can control our cost savings and executing against our strategic goals.

    我們在第一季擁有穩健的財務和營運業績,並繼續專注於我們可以控制的成本節約和執行我們的策略目標。

  • We continue to believe our execution, cost focus and industry leadership will enable us to drive differentiated performance and emerge with even stronger financial octane when the housing market improves.

    我們仍然相信,我們的執行力、成本關注和行業領導地位將使我們能夠推動差異化的業績,並在房地產市場改善時以更強勁的金融辛烷出現。

  • I will now highlight our first quarter financial results.

    我現在將重點介紹我們第一季的財務表現。

  • Q1 revenue was $1.1 billion, essentially flat versus prior year as transaction volume growth was offset by softness in relocation.

    第一季營收為 11 億美元,與去年同期基本持平,因為交易量成長被搬遷疲軟所抵消。

  • We are encouraged by the improving volume trends even while still off a low base.

    儘管基數仍然較低,但成交量的改善趨勢令我們感到鼓舞。

  • Q1 operating EBITDA was negative $17 million improved versus prior year due to transaction volume growth, lower expenses across the enterprise and the absence of litigation accruals.

    第一季營運 EBITDA 為負 1,700 萬美元,與去年同期相比,由於交易量成長、整個企業費用降低以及訴訟應計費用的減少,增加了 1,700 萬美元。

  • We continue to prudently manage our cash cash on hand at the end of Q1 was $111 million and Q1 free cash flow was negative $145 million.

    我們繼續謹慎管理我們的現金,第一季末手頭現金為 1.11 億美元,第一季自由現金流為負 1.45 億美元。

  • This is the This result is in line with what we normally see in the first quarter, our seasonally slowest, we expect our 2024 operating free cash flow, excluding one-time items, to be modestly positive as favorable working capital, robust savings programs and our cash management discipline will help counterbalance another tough year in housing.

    這是我們通常看到的第一季的結果,這是我們季節性最慢的,我們預計我們的2024 年營運自由現金流(不包括一次性專案)將適度積極,因為有利的營運資本、強勁的儲蓄計劃和我們的現金管理紀律將有助於平衡房屋市場又一個艱難的一年。

  • And as a reminder, we have over $100 million of one-time payments anticipated this year between our $73.5 million class action litigation payments and a $39 million legacy California tax matter.

    提醒一下,今年我們預計在 7,350 萬美元的集體訴訟付款和 3,900 萬美元的加州遺留稅務問題之間支付超過 1 億美元的一次性付款。

  • Now let me go into more detail on our business segment performance.

    現在讓我更詳細地介紹我們的業務部門的業績。

  • Our AnyWare brands business, which includes leads and relocation, generated $89 million in operating EBITDA.

    我們的 AnyWare 品牌業務(包括銷售線索和搬遷)產生了 8,900 萬美元的營運 EBITDA。

  • Operating EBITDA decreased $8 million year-over-year, primarily due to lower client volumes in the relocation business.

    營運 EBITDA 年比減少 800 萬美元,主要是因為搬遷業務的客戶量減少。

  • We love our core franchise business and its margin stability over time.

    我們熱愛我們的核心特許經營業務及其長期的利潤穩定性。

  • And in Q1, our core franchise margins were approximately 60%

    第一季度,我們的核心特許經營利潤率約為 60%

  • Our Q1 anywhere advisers.

    我們的 Q1 隨處顧問。

  • Operating EBITDA was negative $59 million, improved $16 million versus prior year due to higher volume and lower operating and marketing costs.

    由於產量增加以及營運和行銷成本降低,營運 EBITDA 為負 5,900 萬美元,較上年增加 1,600 萬美元。

  • Commission splits in Q1 were 80.04%, down three basis points year over year, continuing the six quarter trend of more stable split, we are benefiting from the improved competitive environment, reduced amortization of prior recruiting and retention payments and some re-classes for one of our brands.

    第一季的佣金分配率為 80.04%,同比下降 3 個基點,延續了六季度更穩定分配的趨勢,我們受益於競爭環境的改善、先前招聘和保留付款的攤銷減少以及一些重新分類我們的品牌。

  • This benefit, however, is offset in part by unfavorable agent mix.

    然而,這種好處被不利的藥劑組合所部分抵消。

  • As we saw top agents take a greater share of transactions and to a lesser degree, geography, as we saw improvement in a few higher split markets like California, anywhere integrated services was negative $15 million in operating EBITDA in Q1, operating EBITDA improved $2 million year over year due to lower operating expenses driven by cost savings initiatives.

    我們看到頂級代理商在交易中佔據了更大的份額,而地理方面則在較小程度上佔據了交易份額,因為我們看到加州等一些分割程度較高的市場有所改善,任何地方的綜合服務第一季的經營EBITDA 為負1,500 萬美元,經營EBITDA 提高了200 萬美元與去年同期相比,由於成本節約措施推動營運費用降低。

  • Moving on to costs.

    繼續討論成本。

  • We delivered approximately $30 million of cost savings in the first quarter and expect to realize at least $100 million in cost savings this year.

    我們在第一季節省了約 3,000 萬美元的成本,預計今年將實現至少 1 億美元的成本節省。

  • Some important items on our 2024 cost savings program, which are also illustrated on Slide 21 in our earnings presentation include we expect the cost savings to be recognized fairly evenly across the remainder of the year.

    我們的 2024 年成本節約計畫的一些重要項目(也在我們的收益簡報中的投影片 21 中進行了說明)包括,我們預計成本節約將在今年剩餘時間內得到相當均勻的認可。

  • We have identified 100% of the target of which $40 million of the program is carryover savings from 2023 actions.

    我們已確定 100% 的目標,其中 4000 萬美元的計劃是 2023 年行動的結轉節省。

  • We continue to have a relentless focus on changing how we operate to drive greater efficiencies across all areas of our company.

    我們繼續不懈地致力於改變我們的營運方式,以提高公司所有領域的效率。

  • We continue to realize cost savings by streamlining processes, reimagining roles and footprints, optimizing resources or using AI to automate certain tasks.

    我們透過簡化流程、重新構想角色和足跡、優化資源或使用人工智慧自動化某些任務,繼續實現成本節約。

  • All of these actions will help to enhance our customer and agent experience while also improving our cost structure over the long term.

    所有這些行動都將有助於增強我們的客戶和代理商體驗,同時從長遠來看也改善我們的成本結構。

  • And we believe these actions will actually help drive drive growth in the future.

    我們相信這些行動實際上將有助於推動未來的成長。

  • It can be hard to see the full financial octane of our business transformation efforts, especially on the cost side in this historically low housing market, we often get the question of how will our cost work translate to the P&L in the future and in better housing markets, given that we wanted to share the following, we put together a pro forma of what 2024 would look like if we had a more normal housing market.

    很難看到我們業務轉型工作的全部財務辛烷值,特別是在這個歷史低位的房地產市場的成本方面,我們經常會遇到這樣的問題:我們的成本工作將如何轉化為未來的損益表以及更好的住房鑑於我們想要分享以下內容,我們整理了一份預計,如果我們有一個更正常的房地產市場,2024 年將會是什麼樣子。

  • Slide 22 in our earnings presentation shows our historic cost savings delivery over the past five years, which includes a mix of permanent and temporary cost reductions.

    我們收益簡報中的投影片 22 顯示了我們在過去五年中實現的歷史性成本節約,其中包括永久性和臨時性成本削減。

  • That total approximately $600 million, of which approximately $350 million has flowed through to our P&L about 40% of the savings were offset by inflation, new investments and other factors.

    總額約為 6 億美元,其中約 3.5 億美元已流入我們的損益表,其中約 40% 的節省被通貨膨脹、新投資和其他因素所抵消。

  • Alongside that, if you look at slide 23 in our earnings presentation, we have illustrated our pro forma 2024 financial octane, combining our cost reductions, including our end year target of $100 million and a better housing market.

    除此之外,如果你看一下我們收益演示中的幻燈片23,我們已經說明了我們預計2024 年的金融辛烷值,結合了我們的成本削減,包括我們1 億美元的年終目標和更好的房地產市場。

  • This illustration implies an EBITDA range of $500 million to $600 million in a $5 million to $5.5 million unit 2024 for housing market.

    該圖意味著 2024 年房屋市場的 EBITDA 範圍為 5 億至 6 億美元,單位面積為 500 萬至 550 萬美元。

  • This also factors in higher mortgage delivery as well as higher variable expenses, including commissions and royalties for the higher unit rate environment.

    這也導致抵押貸款交付增加以及可變費用增加,包括較高單位利率環境下的佣金和特許權使用費。

  • And to be clear, we are not assuming any consumer commission changes in this pro forma.

    需要明確的是,我們並沒有假設本次預估中消費者佣金會發生任何變動。

  • Similarly, we believe we could see $200 million to $300 million of free cash flow generation in that same $5 million to $5.5 million existing home sale range, excluding any one-time payments.

    同樣,我們相信,在 500 萬至 550 萬美元的現房銷售範圍內,我們可以看到 2 億至 3 億美元的自由現金流生成,不包括任何一次性付款。

  • This shows how the strategic actions we've taken on cost can translate into strong financial delivery and a higher existing home sales market.

    這表明我們在成本方面採取的策略行動如何轉化為強勁的財務交付和更高的現有房屋銷售市場。

  • The combination of our cost actions, current and future in a more normal housing market should move us well down the path to getting back to double-digit EBITDA margins.

    在更正常的房地產市場中,我們當前和未來的成本行動相結合,應該會推動我們順利回到兩位數的 EBITDA 利潤率。

  • I'm incredibly proud of our relentless focus on what we can control, enabling us to capitalize on the market when it returns.

    我對我們對我們能夠控制的事情的不懈關注感到無比自豪,這使我們能夠在市場回歸時利用它。

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Let me now turn the call back to Ryan for some closing remarks.

    現在讓我把電話轉回給瑞安,讓他發表一些結束語。

  • Thank you showed I'm incredibly proud of how the Anywhere team continues to lead and deliver through the challenging housing market and the ongoing industry uncertainty. 2024 is about anywhere real estate, executing on what we can control delivering on our strategic agenda and utilizing our competitive advantages to deliver value for our agents, franchisees and shareholders in the future.

    謝謝你們,我對 Anywhere 團隊如何在充滿挑戰的房地產市場和持續的行業不確定性中繼續領導和交付感到非常自豪。 2024 年,任何房地產都將按照我們能夠控制的目標執行我們的策略議程,並利用我們的競爭優勢為我們的代理商、特許經營商和股東在未來創造價值。

  • With that, we will take your questions.

    這樣,我們將回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

    馬修·博利,巴克萊銀行。

  • Matthew Bouley - Anlayst

    Matthew Bouley - Anlayst

  • Your line is open, but morning, everyone, and thank you for taking the questions.

    你們的熱線已開放,但是早安,感謝你們提出問題。

  • I guess start starting on all the news of the quarter, obviously helping agents communicate their value to consumers because has always been part of your business, the brokerage business.

    我想從本季的所有新聞開始,顯然是幫助代理商向消費者傳達他們的價值,因為這一直是您業務(經紀業務)的一部分。

  • What are you doing differently now?

    你現在做了什麼不同的事情?

  • Assuming homebuyers and sellers, our kind of incrementally negotiating or questioning what commission rate impact?

    假設購屋者和賣家,我們的增量談判或質疑佣金率會產生什麼影響?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, let me say a couple of things.

    好吧,讓我說幾件事。

  • Matt, thanks for the question.

    馬特,謝謝你的提問。

  • First off, as I started my call, was we just have just an awesome group of agents and franchisees.

    首先,當我開始打電話時,我們只有一群很棒的代理商和特許經營者。

  • And one thing I will say is remember our business does skew luxury, and that is a place where there's probably historically been both more complexity, more of that kind of negotiation that you're describing.

    我要說的一件事是,請記住,我們的業務確實偏向奢侈品,而這在歷史上可能會更加複雜,更多的是您所描述的那種談判。

  • And so, you know, I'm hearing from a lot of agents that they're just totally on troubled by continuing to communicate what they're doing.

    所以,你知道,我從很多經紀人那裡聽說,他們對繼續溝通他們正在做的事情感到非常困擾。

  • But it's also a great pool of learning for us to share with our broader agent population.

    但這也是我們與更廣泛的代理商群體分享的一個巨大的學習庫。

  • The other thing I would say, as again we are sharing things across our ecosystem across our six brands.

    我要說的另一件事是,我們再次在我們的六個品牌的生態系統中分享東西。

  • Leveraging the scale we have is because we made the decision to settle this litigation many months ago, we've been working longer on this than anybody else, right.

    利用我們現有的規模是因為我們在幾個月前就決定解決這起訴訟,我們在這方面的工作時間比其他任何人都長,對吧。

  • We were thinking very hard and actually had plans of how we thought buyer agreements could be more part of our future way back in September.

    我們非常認真地思考,實際上早在 9 月就已經計劃好了買家協議如何成為我們未來的一部分。

  • And so we're optimistic about our ability to have our agents be we are better than the average or better than the competition in utilizing this.

    因此,我們對我們的代理能力感到樂觀,因為我們比平均水平更好,或比競爭對手更好地利用這一點。

  • And finally, I think buyer agency agreements are great, like I think they're going to help us actually lock in some business that probably slipped through our fingers beforehand.

    最後,我認為買方代理協議很棒,就像我認為它們將幫助我們真正鎖定一些可能事先從我們手中溜走的業務。

  • And I really have confidence in our agents' ability to communicate their value.

    我對我們的代理商傳達其價值的能力充滿信心。

  • So the sharing of best practices, the leverage and the history we have, especially in the luxury area of this kind of actions already and kind of a time advantage in terms of our focus and rollout of these things are examples of kind of both what we're doing, but also why we're excited on a relative basis, what we can do here.

    因此,分享我們所擁有的最佳實踐、影響力和歷史,特別是在奢侈品領域已經採取的此類行動,以及我們在重點和推出這些事情方面的時間優勢,都是我們所採取的行動的例子。

  • Matthew Bouley - Anlayst

    Matthew Bouley - Anlayst

  • Excellent.

    出色的。

  • Thank you for that, Ryan.

    謝謝你,瑞安。

  • On the second one on kind of a similar topic, of course, thinking around agent mix, are you starting to see or perhaps considering the potential for lower producing agents to leave the industry in a scenario like this?

    當然,關於類似主題的第二個,考慮代理商組合,您是否開始看到或可能考慮低產量代理商在這樣的情況下離開該行業的潛力?

  • And if so, how do you think about the kind of profitability to anywhere lower producing agents versus the higher producing agents.

    如果是這樣,您如何看待低產量代理商與高產量代理商的獲利能力。

  • Right.

    正確的。

  • Is the question around how commission splits may pay out, assuming that there might be a change in the kind of mix of agents in the industry?

    問題是假設行業中代理商的組合可能發生變化,那麼佣金分配將如何支付?

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So look, Matt, we're already seeing that as an industry.

    所以看,馬特,我們已經將其視為一個行業。

  • We're seeing that as a company.

    我們將其視為一家公司。

  • And I don't think it's just tied to anything recent from a litigation or regulation standpoint, you see people leave the industry in tough markets and we've been in, you know, the lowest unit market here in like 30 years.

    我認為,從訴訟或監管的角度來看,這與最近發生的事情無關,你會看到人們在艱難的市場中離開這個行業,而你知道,我們已經進入了 30 年來最低的單位市場。

  • So it's pretty tough out there if you don't have listings or if you don't, you know how how buyers and and after the INR settlement happened, I was on I talk to I had calls with all of our agents and franchisees, I told all my expect more agents to lead the industry, right?

    因此,如果你沒有清單,或者如果你沒有,你知道買家是如何在印度盧比結算發生後,我正在與我交談,我與我們所有的代理商和特許經營商都打了電話,我告訴大家我期待更多的代理商能夠引領業界,對嗎?

  • Because there will be agents who are good at articulating their value.

    因為會有善於表達自己價值的經紀人。

  • The way our I think our agents are.

    我認為我們的代理人就是這樣。

  • And so we think that will happen.

    所以我們認為這將會發生。

  • But in terms of affecting the economics, I'm not that I don't lose a lot of sleep over yet in part because the trend of our best agents doing most of the deals is not new.

    但就影響經濟而言,我並不是說我沒有失眠很多,部分原因是我們最好的經紀人完成大部分交易的趨勢並不新鮮。

  • And I think most of the people who are leaving the industry are going to be the those, you know, nonproductive or very low productive agents you talked about.

    我認為大多數離開這個行業的人都會是你所說的那些生產力低或生產力極低的人。

  • And so I'm sure there's some stuff on the margin.

    所以我確信還有一些東西在邊緣。

  • I mean, Charlotte, even called out in this quarter, one of ours commission split headwinds was, you know, our top agents doing what, 7% more deals or something this quarter in Q1 than they had a year ago.

    我的意思是,夏洛特,甚至在本季度呼籲,我們的佣金分配阻力之一是,你知道,我們的頂級代理商做了什麼,本季度第一季的交易量比一年前多了7%。

  • And so that macro trend is still there and it kind of hits on the margin a bit.

    因此,宏觀趨勢仍然存在,而且有點影響邊緣。

  • But you know, when you're starting from a place where your top 50% of agents are already doing 90, 90 plus percent of the deals.

    但你知道,當你從一個地方開始時,你的前 50% 的代理商已經完成了 90%、90% 以上的交易。

  • It's not a it's not a big mover, but we are also excited potentially by the costs we put into supporting nonproductive agents going down.

    這並不是一個很大的推動力,但我們也對支持非生產性代理人的成本下降感到興奮。

  • It's not three to have people in your ecosystem.

    在你的生態系中擁有人並不是三個。

  • And so we'll see how the integrated economics of this thing play out.

    因此,我們將看看這件事的綜合經濟學如何發揮作用。

  • But I totally expect the number of agents to go down.

    但我完全預期代理商的數量會減少。

  • Matthew Bouley - Anlayst

    Matthew Bouley - Anlayst

  • Understood.

    明白了。

  • Great color.

    顏色很棒。

  • Thanks, Ryan, and good luck.

    謝謝,瑞安,祝你好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Anthony Paolone, JPMorgan.

    安東尼保隆,摩根大通。

  • Your line is IRA Yes, thanks.

    您的專線是 IRA 是的,謝謝。

  • Anthony Paolone - Analyst

    Anthony Paolone - Analyst

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • Hi, I'm sorry.

    嗨,對不起。

  • Your first question is, can you maybe just tell us what guidance you're providing just system-wide tier agents in terms of how to handle these discussions and perhaps whether there's a part of the country that you see doing business already as it might it looked like in the future?

    您的第一個問題是,您能否告訴我們您為全系統一級代理提供了哪些指導,以指導如何處理這些討論,以及您是否認為該國的某些地區已經在開展業務看起來像未來?

  • Just trying to add here, something that you have tangible about how you might think this looks as this buy-side commission matter unfolds?

    只是想在這裡補充一點,隨著買方佣金問題的展開,您對這件事的看法是如何的?

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, Tony, I would I would say no places doing it like the future yet in a full way.

    是的,東尼,我想說的是,還沒有任何地方能夠像未來一樣全面地做到這一點。

  • But you know, there's about 20 states today that use buyer agreements and then there's a few others where they're kind of commonplace.

    但你知道,如今大約有 20 個州使用買方協議,還有一些其他州也很常見。

  • So the idea of buyer agreements for us using them is not at all necessarily a new thing.

    因此,我們使用它們的買方協議的想法根本不是什麼新鮮事。

  • However, you know, we need to we need to build and the industry is to build buyer agreements in the states that don't exist.

    然而,你知道,我們需要我們需要建立,產業正在不存在的州建立買方協議。

  • And even the buyer agreements that do exist need to be updated for some of the dinar settlement and even some of the things we wanted to do from our own settlement and put it in there.

    即使確實存在的買方協議也需要更新一些第納爾結算,甚至我們想要從我們自己的結算中做的一些事情並將其放在那裡。

  • And so we're in the middle of doing that.

    我們正在這樣做。

  • And then we and then for us, it's a big pool of experimentation and we have a couple of thousand franchisees here in the U.S. and many of them have already rolled out the buyer agreements or they're in a market where there's buyer agreements and the best practice sharing is a huge is a huge thing we've got.

    然後我們,然後對我們來說,這是一個很大的實驗池,我們在美國有數千個特許經營商,其中許多人已經推出了買方協議,或者他們所在的市場有買方協議和最佳實踐共享是我們擁有的一件大事。

  • We've launched a lot of different training things on the not just on the agreements themselves on articulating your value and pricing and things like that.

    我們推出了許多不同的培訓項目,不僅是協議本身,還包括闡明您的價值和定價之類的內容。

  • And like I said, we have a little bit of an advantage because we've been working on it longer than I think anyone else because of our set or our settlement timing, and we knew this would be a important thing for the future.

    就像我說的,我們有一點優勢,因為我們在這方面的工作時間比我認為其他任何人都長,因為我們的設定或結算時間,我們知道這對未來來說將是一件重要的事情。

  • Now there are markets Tony and you're well familiar with HM, Washington State's an example where offers of compensation haven't been mandatory for a long time, right?

    現在有一些市場,東尼,你對英國人很熟悉,華盛頓州就是一個例子,很長一段時間以來,提供補償都不是強制性的,對嗎?

  • And so there are places where the world has operated a little differently than a lot of the country, um, again, I don't think that's not the end state because there's some other stuff in these settlements that will change the agreements.

    因此,世界上有些地方的運作方式與許多國家略有不同,嗯,再說一遍,我不認為這不是最終狀態,因為這些和解中還有其他一些東西會改變協議。

  • But but there are places where we have some data of kind of what works and what doesn't.

    但是,在某些地方,我們有一些關於什麼有效、什麼無效的資料。

  • And again, you know, we have some you get really good stories, especially from your best agents on how they're having these conversations and how they're being successful with them.

    再說一次,你知道,我們有一些非常好的故事,特別是來自你最好的經紀人的故事,講述他們如何進行這些對話以及他們如何成功地進行這些對話。

  • Anthony Paolone - Analyst

    Anthony Paolone - Analyst

  • And then sharing that with, you know, the 200,000 agents in our ecosystem we think is a powerful thing for the future but no place is operating there yet.

    然後與我們生態系統中的 200,000 個代理商分享,我們認為這對未來來說是一件很強大的事情,但目前還沒有地方在運作。

  • We all have a lot of work to do in terms of bringing new things to life, especially in markets where they're going to be a shock to the system.

    在將新事物帶入生活方面,我們都有很多工作要做,特別是在新事物將對系統產生衝擊的市場中。

  • But I like our at least slight kind of advantage in terms of being we're having worked on it longer and having more kind of scale in examples to kind of share share stories from and cross-pollinate from?

    但我喜歡我們至少有一點優勢,因為我們在這方面的工作時間更長,並且在示例中擁有更大的規模,可以分享來自的故事並進行交叉授粉?

  • And do you think a if you look out a year from now that there will be some amount of the commission that will be borne by the buyer?

    您是否認為一年後買家將承擔一定數量的佣金?

  • Or do you think it will just be navigated such that there will remain offers of compensation, the structural just perhaps be a bit different.

    或者你認為它只會被引導,以便仍然提供補償,結構可能會有點不同。

  • And I guess if so, what do you think the mechanism will be to offer that type of your website or some other portal or?

    我想如果是這樣,您認為提供這種類型的網站或其他入口網站的機制是什麼?

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So you know, look, I mean the Knorr settlement clearly has display and offers of compensation on broker websites as an explicit part of that, too.

    所以你知道,我的意思是,克諾爾和解協議顯然在經紀人網站上顯示並提供了補償,這也是其中的明確部分。

  • Obviously, that's in their settlement, but that's more of a question for them?

    顯然,這是他們的和解協議中的內容,但這對他們來說更是一個問題?

  • Look, your question is very complicated.

    你看,你的問題很複雜。

  • I think the real answer is I don't think anyone actually knows, but what I what I keep I'm talking about with my employees and my agents and my franchisees and reminding them is negotiating home sales is not a new thing, right.

    我認為真正的答案是,我認為沒有人真正知道,但我一直在與我的員工、代理商和特許經營商談論並提醒他們談判房屋銷售並不是什麼新鮮事,對吧。

  • And you know, could could could agents be paid more by buyer.

    你知道,買家可能會向代理商支付更多費用。

  • Sure.

    當然。

  • That's absolutely possible in the future.

    這在未來是絕對有可能的。

  • But I can't offers of compensation or chart can offers to buy a house, you know, can they include, hey, sellers, we want you to pay this thing, just like we want you to credit us further for the furnace that's not working right?

    但我不能提供補償或圖表可以提供購買房子的報價,你知道,它們可以包括,嘿,賣家,我們希望你支付這筆費用,就像我們希望你進一步為我們提供的爐子而不是爐子一樣工作正常嗎?

  • Or that needs to be replaced kind of thing.

    或需要更換之類的東西。

  • And so I think there's going to be a lot of experimentation.

    所以我認為會有很多實驗。

  • And then we're all still little handicap, Tony, because there's a lot of rules that have not yet been written, right?

    然後我們仍然是小障礙,托尼,因為還有很多規則尚未制定,對吧?

  • Whether they're MLS rules or kind of settlement rules.

    無論是 MLS 規則還是結算規則。

  • So we'll see.

    所以我們拭目以待。

  • But I would like to think that we're on as thoughtful as anybody about planning for those scenarios, thinking how it affects our cost base or other strategic moves we might do thinking about how we communicate with agents on them and share best practices.

    但我認為,我們和任何人一樣,在規劃這些場景時都深思熟慮,思考它如何影響我們的成本基礎或我們可能會考慮如何與代理商溝通並分享最佳實踐的其他戰略舉措。

  • And then again, there's going to be while there may be some challenges.

    話又說回來,雖然可能會遇到一些挑戰,但還是會存在。

  • There's going to be some opportunities here because every everybody out there is going to face this the same market, whether it's the macro that's tough or whether it's the change in how things operate and I like our assets relative to others to go through that change.

    這裡將會有一些機會,因為每個人都將面臨同樣的市場,無論是宏觀形勢嚴峻還是事物運作方式發生變化,我希望我們的資產相對於其他人能夠經歷這種變化。

  • Anthony Paolone - Analyst

    Anthony Paolone - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking a crack at it.

    感謝您嘗試。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Soham Bhonsle, BTIG.

    Soham Bhonsle,BTIG。

  • Your line is open, your MorningStar.

    你的線路是開放的,你的晨星。

  • Soham Bhonsle - Analyst

    Soham Bhonsle - Analyst

  • Mostly here I'm mentioning and questions are right.

    我在這裡主要提到的是,問題是正確的。

  • I guess first one for you.

    我想第一個適合你。

  • Curious on your thoughts on consolidation in the space long term, adding there's 100 odd thousand brokers in the US today.

    我很好奇您對這一領域長期整合的想法,並補充說目前美國有 100 多家經紀商。

  • And if we're in fact, going to see some commission rate pressure here, how do you think some of the boutique sort of fare in that environment and no new agents need to be at the bigger brokers to effectively compete long term?

    如果我們實際上會在這裡看到一些佣金率壓力,那麼您如何看待這種環境下的一些精品票價,並且不需要新代理商加入更大的經紀商才能有效地進行長期競爭?

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think consolidation is inevitable.

    我認為整合是不可避免的。

  • I've said it publicly and I thought it was inevitable even before some of the litigation and regulatory developments of the last year and done.

    我已經公開說過這一點,甚至在去年的一些訴訟和監管進展完成之前,我認為這是不可避免的。

  • And I think what's happened last year is only going to accelerate that, especially if there is pressure on the commission side, I mean, this is a scale business.

    我認為去年發生的事情只會加速這一點,特別是如果佣金方面有壓力,我的意思是,這是一項規模業務。

  • I mean, the economics of this business is scale as you can see, even with Charlotte showed right, you know, a normal housing market look at just how much more octane we have just because of our scale.

    我的意思是,正如你所看到的,這項業務的經濟學在於規模,即使夏洛特表現得正確,你知道,正常的房地產市場看看我們因為我們的規模而擁有了多少辛烷值。

  • And obviously, if there's ever revenue pressure.

    顯然,如果存在收入壓力的話。

  • One way you've got to deal with that is you've got to get even more efficient on how you deliver your high-value services and and folks on the cost side and consolidation is one way to get there.

    解決這個問題的一種方法是,您必須更有效率地提供高價值服務以及成本方面的人員,而整合是實現這一目標的一種方法。

  • So I think it's inevitable on I think, you know, providing good technology is another reason.

    所以我認為這是不可避免的,我認為,提供良好的技術是另一個原因。

  • It's probably inevitable that not everyone can do and I think brand matters in our industry, and I know there's different views on that.

    這可能是不可避免的,不是每個人都能做到,我認為品牌在我們的行業中很重要,我知道對此有不同的看法。

  • But one of our portal friends, you know, kind of stood up on stage and reminded the world that brands matter a lot and quite recently, and I believe in that.

    但我們的一位門戶網站朋友,你知道,站上舞台提醒世界,品牌非常重要,而且是在最近,我相信這一點。

  • And so I think that will be helpful in the future.

    所以我認為這對未來會有幫助。

  • Also now I will tell you, I think consolidation right at this moment is a very strange thing because there is both the over there.

    現在我還要告訴你,我認為此時此刻的整合是一件非常奇怪的事情,因為那邊都有。

  • We're in a tough macro, but there's also the overhang from litigation payments and litigation that's still ongoing for a lot of companies.

    我們正處於一個艱難的宏觀環境中,但對於許多公司來說,訴訟付款和訴訟仍然存在懸而未決的問題。

  • And with the uncertainty on the revenue side, you know, I am incredibly cautious looking at consolidation right today, but but I do think it's inevitable.

    由於收入方面的不確定性,你知道,我今天對整合非常謹慎,但我確實認為這是不可避免的。

  • And Tom and I think the bigger scale players just are going to have a lot of advantages here.

    湯姆和我認為規模較大的參與者在這裡會有很多優勢。

  • And I'm hoping that a company like ours, especially with our six great brands can differentiate over time on that.

    我希望像我們這樣的公司,尤其是擁有六個偉大品牌的公司,能夠隨著時間的推移在這方面脫穎而出。

  • Soham Bhonsle - Analyst

    Soham Bhonsle - Analyst

  • Okay, great.

    好的,太好了。

  • And then Charlotte, I guess, is just on the on the free cash flow and then just tying that back to the balance sheet, right, is about $110 million in cash.

    我想,夏洛特只是在自由現金流上,然後將其與資產負債表掛鉤,對吧,大約有 1.1 億美元的現金。

  • You're guiding to sort of modestly positive operating free cash flow on the core business.

    您正在引導核心業務實現適度積極的營運自由現金流。

  • But then you have this $100 million in one-time payments this year.

    但今年你有這 1 億美元的一次性付款。

  • So can you maybe just talk about how you intend to fund that expense and also sort of what you're baking into your positive operating free cash flow guide?

    那麼,您能否談談您打算如何為這筆費用提供資金,以及您正在將哪些內容納入積極的營運自由現金流指南中?

  • Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Yes, to go.

    是的,要去。

  • And depending on when the timing of these things happen right now, and you know, if the supplements approved in May, there's a possibility that we'll have to pay the last bit of the settlement in Q2, and we don't start generating positive free cash flow until right about now, Tampa so we'll likely fund that from the revolver at the California tax matter, is likely to also hit in the second quarter.

    取決於這些事情現在發生的時間,你知道,如果補充方案在五月獲得批准,我們有可能必須在第二季度支付最後一點和解金,而且我們不會開始產生到目前為止,坦帕的自由現金流為正,因此我們可能會從加州稅務問題上的左輪手槍中提供資金,也可能在第二季度受到打擊。

  • And so for the same reason, that will likely be funded by the revolver.

    因此出於同樣的原因,這可能會由左輪手槍資助。

  • The good news is we have a a ton of capacity on the revolver.

    好消息是我們的左輪手槍有大量的容量。

  • So and then we start moving into our positive sort of free cash flow generation, we'll start chipping away back after the revolver is first the guidance.

    因此,然後我們開始進入積極的自由現金流生成階段,在左輪手槍首先成為指導之後,我們將開始削減。

  • So you know, when we say modestly positive, that's excluding the one-time items.

    所以你知道,當我們說適度積極時,這不包括一次性項目。

  • Soham Bhonsle - Analyst

    Soham Bhonsle - Analyst

  • And so what's baked into that is our normal performance of the business.

    因此,這就是我們正常的業務表現。

  • So the business how it would perform on the year, excluding those one-time payments.

    因此,不包括那些一次性付款的業務在這一年的表現如何。

  • So the guidance, excluding the one-time payments is to be positive but there's there's a probability that it will take us negative with the one-time payments if that helps or have you contemplated like what the market can, what kind of market volumes you need to sort of hit that positive operating free cash flow?

    因此,排除一次性付款的指導意見是積極的,但如果這有幫助或讓您考慮到市場可以做什麼,您的市場容量是多少,那麼一次性付款有可能是負面的。自由現金流嗎?

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Well, I've imparted sort of the financial octane slide that I shared with you, right?

    好吧,我已經分享了與您分享的金融辛烷值幻燈片,對嗎?

  • So and there's a quite a big amount of free cash flow in a normal, what we'd call a normal housing market, $5 million to $5.5 million units.

    因此,在正常的、我們稱之為正常的房地產市場中,有相當大的自由現金流,即 500 萬至 550 萬美元的單位。

  • And what we've said is that's going to take us to, we believe, two to $300 million of free cash flow.

    我們說過,我們相信,這將使我們獲得 20 至 3 億美元的自由現金流。

  • Now that also excludes any one-time items.

    現在這也排除了任何一次性項目。

  • So absent the one-time item, it's either modestly positive in this horrible housing market that we're in right now, but in a normal housing market likely sort of like two to $300 million.

    因此,如果沒有一次性項目,那麼在我們現在所處的這個可怕的房地產市場中,它要么是適度積極的,但在正常的房地產市場中可能是 2 到 3 億美元。

  • So hopefully that helps.

    希望這會有所幫助。

  • Soham Bhonsle - Analyst

    Soham Bhonsle - Analyst

  • And then I guess just if I could sneak one more in on the $100 million cost savings for this year, you suggested that you could exceed that number as well.

    然後我想,如果我能再從今年節省的 1 億美元成本中多賺一點,您建議您也可以超過這個數字。

  • Can you just talk about like what will put you in that sort of scenario things.

    你能談談什麼會讓你陷入那種場景嗎?

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Well, so think about it this way, and our cost is a permanent journey, right?

    好吧,那麼這樣想一下,我們的成本就是永久的旅程,對吧?

  • That's something that we'll be doing to help improve the how we operate, just even for consumer satisfaction, agent satisfaction, but obviously also because we are always working to enhance our profitability.

    這是我們將要做的事情,以幫助改善我們的營運方式,甚至是為了消費者滿意度、代理商滿意度,但顯然也是因為我們一直在努力提高我們的獲利能力。

  • So that just the fact that we had $40 million of our $100 million-plus this year was carryover savings.

    因此,今年我們的 1 億多美元中有 4,000 萬美元是結轉節省。

  • What's going to take us higher than the $100 million are things that we're going to act upon now that we hadn't anticipated that will start to benefit us next year and this year into next year.

    那些能讓我們獲得超過 1 億美元的資金的是我們現在要採取的行動,我們沒有預料到這些事情會在明年以及今年到明年開始讓我們受益。

  • So we don't stop working on costs just because we have 100% of our target achieved this year.

    因此,我們不會因為今年目標 100% 實現就停止成本方面的工作。

  • It's a journey that it's probably pretty endless for FX.

    對 FX 來說,這可能是一段永無止境的旅程。

  • So new actions that were not anticipated, that's what's going to take us higher, and that's what we're feverishly working on right now.

    因此,沒有預料到的新行動將使我們走得更高,這就是我們現在狂熱地努力的事情。

  • Soham Bhonsle - Analyst

    Soham Bhonsle - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • ;Thanks a lot for that.

    ;為此非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thomas McJoynt-Griffith, KBW.

    托馬斯·麥克喬恩特·格里菲斯,KBW。

  • Your line is open.

    您的線路已開通。

  • Thomas McJoynt-Griffith - Analyst

    Thomas McJoynt-Griffith - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, guys.

    嘿,早上好,夥計們。

  • Thanks for taking my questions.

    感謝您回答我的問題。

  • Actually, going back to one of Anthony's question, I guess it was alluded to that one of the business practice changes?

    實際上,回到安東尼的一個問題,我想這是暗示了商業實踐的變化之一?

  • Yes, our settlement is no longer displaying offers of compensation and listings on the MLS.

    是的,我們的和解協議不再在 MLS 上顯示補償報價和清單。

  • And but it does appear to carve out that those offers of compensation can be made of MLS such as on brokerage owned websites.

    但它似乎確實規定,這些補償提議可以透過 MLS 提出,例如在經紀公司擁有的網站上。

  • Is that the plan for anywhere as brokerage owned websites to post those?

    這是經紀公司擁有的網站發布這些內容的計畫嗎?

  • And then just if so, perhaps as a byproduct, what do you see as the future of the MLSs?

    如果是這樣,也許作為副產品,您認為 MLS 的未來是什麼?

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So I think it's too early to speculate on either of those questions.

    所以我認為現在推測這兩個問題還為時過早。

  • Unfortunately, Tommy, um, on what we're going to do part of the answer is kind of we'll see and part of the reason the answer is we'll see, as I referenced, I think in the answer with Tony was there.

    不幸的是,湯米,嗯,關於我們要做的事情,部分答案是我們將會看到的,部分原因是我們將會看到,正如我所提到的,我認為在托尼的回答中是那裡。

  • The actual rules on how these different ecosystems will work are yet to be written.

    這些不同生態系如何運作的實際規則尚未制定。

  • And remember, they're like 700 MLSs.

    請記住,他們就像 700 個 MLS。

  • So you've got 700 people writing rules effectively like there's no guarantee here that the rules or the actual technical rules are going to look the same across the United States.

    因此,有 700 個人在有效地編寫規則,但不能保證這些規則或實際的技術規則在美國各地看起來都是一樣的。

  • So we're in a little bit of wait-and-see both on what we're going to do and what it means for the future, the MLSs.

    因此,我們對我們將要做什麼以及這對 MLS 的未來意味著什麼都持觀望態度。

  • But I do think there's going to be more innovation in the industry, right?

    但我確實認為這個行業將會有更多的創新,對嗎?

  • I mean, there are portals in this industry.

    我的意思是,這個行業有門戶網站。

  • There are large brokerages there, MLSs, there are a number of third parties who work with this ecosystem from a data standpoint.

    那裡有大型經紀公司、MLS,還有許多從數據角度來看與這個生態系統合作的第三方。

  • And so I think we'll all have a lot more clarity in kind of six to 12 months, both on how the ecosystem will evolve, how each of those different players will play in the ecosystem and even how companies will make kind of different choices.

    因此,我認為在 6 到 12 個月內,我們都會更清楚地了解生態系統將如何發展、每個不同的參與者將如何在生態系統中發揮作用,甚至公司將如何做出不同的選擇。

  • So it really is too early, and we saw some of that stuff supposed to be sorted out over the summer.

    所以現在確實還為時過早,我們看到一些應該在夏天解決的問題。

  • So I think we'll have more some at least some more clarity the next time we talk to you.

    因此,我認為下次我們與您交談時,我們會得到更多至少一些更清晰的資訊。

  • But hopefully you can feel that we're not just watching the issue closely, but we you know, we clearly have some hypotheses and are kind of doing some game theory about what we do think we want to do.

    但希望你能感覺到我們不僅僅是在密切關注這個問題,而且你知道,我們顯然有一些假設,並且正在對我們認為我們想做的事情進行一些博弈論。

  • And and again, most important thing is we're charging ahead with our agents and their customers to make sure they're set up for success with buyer agency agreements, which we think are great.

    再說一遍,最重要的是,我們正在與我們的代理商及其客戶一起努力,以確保他們為買方代理協議的成功做好準備,我們認為這很棒。

  • And we think it's actually going to be helpful to us.

    我們認為這實際上會對我們有所幫助。

  • It makes sense.

    這說得通。

  • Thomas McJoynt-Griffith - Analyst

    Thomas McJoynt-Griffith - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • And then switching gears in your pro forma illustration on slide 22, it looks like it sort of implies a 30% increase in transaction volumes just going from 4.1 times, call it 5.2 at the midpoint of existing home sales and what's the impact on commission splits that you're using in this analysis to get to the $500 million to $600 million of EBITDA, I guess would be helpful relative to the 80.2% that you did in 2023?

    然後在幻燈片 22 上的備考插圖中切換齒輪,看起來這似乎意味著交易量從 4.1 倍增加了 30%,將其稱為現房銷售中點的 5.2 倍,這對佣金分配有什麼影響您在本分析所使用的EBITDA 達到5 億至6 億美元,我想相對於您在2023 年所做的80.2% 而言,這會有所幫助嗎?

  • Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Yes, there's a modest increase implied as normal with volume increases, but it's not anything material to us.

    是的,隨著成交量的增加,正常情況下會出現適度的成長,但這對我們來說並不重要。

  • It's not a it's not like in a 50 basis points or 100 basis points of an increase, that's more of a modest increase.

    這不是50個基點或100個基點的升息,而是適度的升息。

  • Thomas McJoynt-Griffith - Analyst

    Thomas McJoynt-Griffith - Analyst

  • So transaction volumes increased 30%, commission splits would increase less than 50 basis points.

    因此交易量增加了 30%,佣金分成將增加不到 50 個基點。

  • Is that kind of what I'm hearing correctly.

    我所聽到的就是這樣嗎?

  • Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • I'm not like I'm not disclosing the exact number used in our pro forma, but yes, it's a modest increase.

    我並不是說我沒有透露我們準備考試中使用的確切數字,但是是的,這是一個適度的增長。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thomas McJoynt-Griffith - Analyst

    Thomas McJoynt-Griffith - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So that those numbers will be different depending on where you're starting right?

    那麼這些數字會根據你從哪裡開始而有所不同嗎?

  • You're going to, you know, you could have the same increase in units.

    你知道,單位數量也會有同樣的增加。

  • But if you started at $5.5 million to $6.5 million, you'd get some different numbers than if you started.

    但如果你的起始價為 550 萬至 650 萬美元,你會得到一些與起步時不同的數字。

  • And this kind of has record kind of low area with the trends that we've seen, whether it's kind of stabilization we've seen or, you know, even in today's world what you know, with this past quarter, one of our brands had commissions, let's go down again.

    這種類型的低區域與我們所看到的趨勢有關,無論是我們所看到的穩定,還是,你知道,即使在當今世界,你知道,在過去的一個季度,我們的一個品牌有了佣金,我們再往下走。

  • We've referenced that before show it to you.

    我們在向您展示之前已經引用過這一點。

  • There's a little less extrapolation on that than maybe you're thinking.

    關於這一點的推論可能比你想像的少。

  • But I think Charlie's got a good the grasp on this and hopefully this kind of pro forma, it gives you a sense of just the financial octane, some of our cost work would would give us in a more normal housing market as well as the octane just a more normal housing market would give us and keep in mind like a bigger thing here is that we're assuming a similar competitive environment, right?

    但我認為查理對此有很好的把握,希望這種形式,它能讓你了解金融辛烷值,我們的一些成本工作將使我們處於更正常的房地產市場以及辛烷值只是一個更正常的房地產市場會為我們帶來並記住這裡更重要的事情是我們假設一個類似的競爭環境,對嗎?

  • Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • The volume is only going to create a modest increase in commissions.

    該交易量只會帶來佣金的小幅增長。

  • But if something changes in the competitive environment, that would be different, like that's what that was, what drove and much more increases to our commissions flips over time.

    但如果競爭環境發生變化,情況就會有所不同,就像事實一樣,隨著時間的推移,推動我們佣金增加的因素也會改變。

  • Thomas McJoynt-Griffith - Analyst

    Thomas McJoynt-Griffith - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Alex.

    謝謝,亞歷克斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ryan McKeveny, Zelman & Associates.

    瑞安麥凱文尼,Zelman & Associates。

  • Your line is open and good morning.

    您的線路已開通,早安。

  • Ryan McKeveny - Analyst

    Ryan McKeveny - Analyst

  • Thank you for taking the question.

    感謝您提出問題。

  • And I know commission rates have been discussed a lot, but just one final one on that.

    我知道佣金率已經被討論了很多,但只是最後一個。

  • I know a lot of factors can can move that a little bit here and there.

    我知道很多因素都可以讓這一點有所改變。

  • But if we look at just the quarter's results, it looks like small movement lower, call it one to two bit in franchising brokerage.

    但如果我們只看本季的業績,它看起來像是小幅下跌,在特許經營經紀業中稱之為一到兩位。

  • I guess what would you attribute that that downtick to?

    我猜你會把這種下降歸因於什麼?

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, frankly, we in Our Brands business, for example, we were down two basis points, frankly, driven by an increase in higher priced homes.

    是的,坦白說,例如,我們在我們的品牌業務中,坦白說,由於價格較高的房屋增加,我們下降了兩個基點。

  • You know, in our in our owned brokerage business, we were flat.

    你知道,在我們自己的經紀業務中,我們表現平平。

  • And then remember last year, you know, ABCR actually increased two basis points for the full year.

    然後記住去年,你知道,ABCR 實際上全年增加了兩個基點。

  • And again, that was really driven by the price mix of homes.

    再說一次,這實際上是由房屋的價格組合所驅動的。

  • So the real thing, Ryan, we keep seeing move in the number around, albeit quite small numbers.

    所以,真正的事情是,瑞安,我們不斷看到周圍的數字在變化,儘管數字相當小。

  • These days is kind of the mix of homes that we're selling and just because it's a pretty good range about what ABCR is dependent on the price of the home with more expensive homes.

    如今,我們正在銷售多種房屋,因為 ABCR 取決於房屋價格和更昂貴房屋的價格,這是一個相當不錯的範圍。

  • Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • Having lower ABCR and in the first quarter we tend to see that that result also sometimes due to the amortizations that you're talking about, ABCR in the brands business and driven by amortization of prior payments and other things over a smaller base.

    ABCR 較低,在第一季度,我們傾向於看到這一結果有時也是由於您所說的攤銷,品牌業務中的 ABCR 以及由先前付款攤銷和較小基數的其他因素驅動的。

  • Ryan McKeveny - Analyst

    Ryan McKeveny - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • That makes sense.

    這就說得通了。

  • And then on the franchise side, you called out the strength in the share gains at Sotheby's, which is good to hear, I guess, more broadly across the franchise network on obviously very tough housing market.

    然後在特許經營方面,您指出蘇富比的股票收益強勁,我想,在顯然非常艱難的房地產市場上,在更廣泛的特許經營網絡中聽到這一點是件好事。

  • I guess anything you could share about the general financial health or performance of the actual franchisees and maybe some thoughts around how things like new franchise sales and renewals are going.

    我想您可以分享有關實際特許經營商的整體財務狀況或業績的任何信息,也許還有一些關於新特許經營銷售和續約等事宜的想法。

  • Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • As far as the health of the franchisees?

    至於加盟商的健康狀況如何?

  • We're pretty much in a similar place to where we've been over the last, I don't know, sort of five to six quarters, and there's a process that we take when the market gets much softer that we we're sort of on top of it on a weekly basis.

    我們的情況與過去五到六個季度的情況非常相似,我不知道,當市場變得比我們更加疲軟時,我們會採取一個流程。

  • And we're analyzing things.

    我們正在分析事情。

  • We're talking with our franchisees.

    我們正在與我們的特許經營商交談。

  • We're helping them to make sure that they're making the best decisions to run their business so that they stay in a healthy spot.

    我們正在幫助他們確保他們做出經營業務的最佳決策,從而保持健康的狀態。

  • So while the fall, we are a little bit worse from a bad debt perspective than we would have been in the super healthy housing market, it's pretty stable actually.

    因此,雖然秋天,從壞帳的角度來看,我們的情況比超級健康的房地產市場要差一些,但實際上相當穩定。

  • And so there's always some things that one quarter could be some franchisee versus another one.

    因此,總有一些事情,四分之一可能是某個特許經營商,而另一個季度可能是某個特許經營商。

  • So things come in and out, but on the whole.

    所以事情來來去去,但總體而言。

  • We're sort of holding our own right now, and that's because we go through a lot of effort to make sure that we're putting our best foot forward to help our franchisees throughout this time.

    我們現在正在堅持自己的立場,那是因為我們付出了很多努力,以確保我們在這段時間裡盡最大努力來幫助我們的特許經營商。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I mean, I think our guide just flat to a year ago and having gone through a tough year and have it be flat, you know, that's that's that's a good thing.

    我的意思是,我認為我們的指南與一年前持平,並且經歷了艱難的一年並且保持持平,你知道,這就是一件好事。

  • On franchise sales.

    關於特許經營銷售。

  • We're really excited and we've talked about this before.

    我們真的很興奮,我們之前已經討論過這個問題。

  • We had a we had a record year of franchise sales in 2022, and I talked about kind of the flight to quality as the market got bad.

    2022 年,我們的特許經營銷售創下了歷史新高,我談到了隨著市場惡化,人們開始轉向優質產品。

  • And we really saw that effect that '23 was a solid year for us.

    我們確實看到了 23 年對我們來說是堅實的一年。

  • But starting in the fall when we settled our litigation, do we are we got a big increase in kind of inbound interest.

    但從秋季開始,當我們解決訴訟時,我們的入境興趣大幅增加。

  • And I think it comes down to the questions that multiple people have asked here, which is if you're going to navigate an uncertain future, how are you going to do it?

    我認為這可以歸結為許多人在這裡提出的問題,那就是如果你要駕馭一個不確定的未來,你將如何做?

  • One way to do it is to is to be with an industry leader who has hopefully shown some foresight and deliver, like I talked about things that help drive their profits up their costs down their insight up.

    做到這一點的一種方法是與一位行業領導者合作,希望他能表現出一些遠見並交付成果,就像我談到的那些有助於提高利潤、提高成本、降低洞察力的事情一樣。

  • You know, we provide the technology.

    你知道,我們提供技術。

  • And so we like the franchise sales, we have a fair amount that we're feeling right now from a from both the value prop we have, but also the on the kind of flight to call it quality in this kind of uncertain future.

    因此,我們喜歡特許經營銷售,我們現在感受到了相當多的東西,既來自我們擁有的價值支撐,也來自於在這種不確定的未來中稱之為質量的飛行。

  • Ryan McKeveny - Analyst

    Ryan McKeveny - Analyst

  • That's helpful.

    這很有幫助。

  • And if I could squeeze one more in on the on the listing side.

    如果我能在上市方面再擠一個。

  • Ryan, you talked about the growth that you saw in the first quarter and obviously industry-wide data shows similar uplift in inventory from a low base.

    瑞安(Ryan),您談到了第一季的成長,顯然整個產業的數據顯示庫存從低基數開始出現類似的成長。

  • And I guess it seems to suggest that maybe the lock-in effect on homeowners has lessened a bit.

    我想這似乎表明對房主的鎖定效應可能有所減弱。

  • And so I'm curious if that's your sense on whether things I don't know, life events, other reasons for movement are happening.

    所以我很好奇,這是否是你對我不知道的事情、生活事件或其他運動原因是否正在發生的感覺。

  • That's that's offsetting the rate lock dynamic.

    這就是抵銷利率鎖定的動態。

  • And then more recently with interest rates moving much higher again in April, I guess any indications homeowners are prospective sellers kind of moving back to the sidelines, given given the rate move?

    最近,隨著四月利率再次大幅走高,考慮到利率變動,我猜有任何跡象表明房主是潛在的賣家,會重新回到觀望狀態嗎?

  • Or does it seem like those who want to sell are still kind of sticking with their listing plans?

    或者那些想要出售的人似乎仍然堅持他們的上市計劃?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • A lot of things with that question, look, my quick answer is I don't think a 4% increase in listings off an incredibly low base means the lock-in effect has loosened.

    很多事情都與這個問題有關,看,我的快速回答是,我不認為在令人難以置信的低基數基礎上增加 4% 的房源數量意味著鎖定效應已經放鬆。

  • I mean it's like, you know, it's like a you know, it's like a two or 3% increase in home sales.

    我的意思是,你知道,就像房屋銷售成長了 2% 或 3%。

  • Yes, that's better than a decline.

    是的,這比下降要好。

  • But flake off such a low base.

    但要擺脫如此低的基數。

  • It's still horrific kind of relative to history.

    相對於歷史來說,這仍然是可怕的。

  • So I don't think the lock-in thing has changed.

    所以我認為鎖定的事情沒有改變。

  • I think people who do want to sell are selling, but it's at some pretty historical levels for us.

    我認為確實想出售的人正在出售,但對我們來說,它處於相當歷史的水平。

  • The thing I think we are more excited about was the fact that there is a lot more listings on the luxury side and because we have more share and better economics and more success there.

    我認為我們更興奮的是,奢侈品方面有更多的房源,因為我們在那裡擁有更多的份額、更好的經濟效益和更多的成功。

  • You know, the fact that those listings were up like 16% for us like, wow, that's good.

    你知道,事實上這些清單對我們來說增加了 16%,哇,這很好。

  • That's and taken some share in luxury, you know, continuing the trend of Sotheby's International Realty outperforming, but I don't take too much comfort from the relatively small increase in listings to be the lock-in effect especially since a lot of the volume increase is still just price driven across our portfolio and in the industry numbers.

    這就是在奢侈品領域佔據了一些份額,你知道,延續了蘇富比國際地產表現優異的趨勢,但我並沒有因為掛牌量相對較小的增長而感到太多安慰,因為鎖定效應尤其是因為大量的成交量我們的投資組合和行業數據的成長仍然只是價格驅動。

  • Ryan McKeveny - Analyst

    Ryan McKeveny - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Yes, makes sense.

    是的,有道理。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Ryan.

    謝謝你,瑞安。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Campbell, Stephens Inc. Your line is open.

    John Campbell,Stephens Inc. 您的線路已接通。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hey, guys.

    大家好。

  • This is Jonathan Bass on for John Campbell.

    我是喬納森‧巴斯 (Jonathan Bass),替約翰‧坎貝爾 (John Campbell) 發言。

  • I wanted to quickly touch on TRG's recently announced acquisition of Del Amo.

    我想快速談談 TRG 最近宣布的對 Del Amo 的收購。

  • What kind of potential do you see there with Doma?

    您認為 Doma 有什麼樣的潛力?

  • And do you feel like it can improve attach rates over time?

    您認為隨著時間的推移它可以提高附加率嗎?

  • Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Schneider - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So just for clarity.

    所以只是為了清楚起見。

  • So TRGC. is a we are a minority player in that that used to be our underwriter a couple of years ago.

    所以TRGC。我們是少數參與者,因為幾年前它曾是我們的承銷商。

  • We did a deal with Centerbridge Centerbridge that we really like where we sold 70% of it took took $210 million of cash, and now we own that kind of peak a piece of it.

    我們與 Centerbridge 達成了一項我們非常喜歡的交易,我們出售了 70% 的資產,花費了 2.1 億美元現金,現在我們擁有了其中的一部分。

  • And since then, we like what they've done with the business, right?

    從那時起,我們喜歡他們在業務上所做的事情,對吧?

  • They brought in Berkshire Hathaway.

    他們引進了波克夏·哈撒韋公司。

  • hey brought in open door or they brought in now with the dome acquisition Lennar's Now part of this thing and the valuation's gone up.

    嘿,他們敞開了大門,或者他們現在透過圓頂收購引入了 Lennar's Now,這是這件事的一部分,估值也上漲了。

  • And so at the end of this, all, we still think there's a chance that our stake in this will be worth more than it was when we owned the thing.

    因此,最終,我們仍然認為我們所持有股份的價值可能會比我們擁有該東西時更高。

  • So we are very excited about that and we're really rooting for them.

    所以我們對此感到非常興奮,並且非常支持他們。

  • And I really can't speak for them too much.

    我真的不能為他們說太多。

  • But if you look from where we sit as a minority player here, you know, this is a chance for TRG. to be a top five player in the market to expand their presence into both homebuilders and mortgage origination distribution channels, and then they could increase their market share in places like Florida and Texas.

    但如果你從我們作為少數玩家的角度來看,你就會知道,這對 TRG 來說是一個機會。成為市場上的前五名參與者,將其業務擴展到房屋建築商和抵押貸款發放分銷管道,然後他們可以增加在佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州等地的市場份額。

  • And you know, I think the transaction they expect to close latter half of this year.

    你知道,我認為他們預計交易將在今年下半年完成。

  • They got to do all kinds of closing stuff.

    他們必須做各種收尾工作。

  • And like I said, Lennar's going to make an equity investment in this joint venture that we're a minority player.

    正如我所說,Lennar 將對這家我們佔少數股權的合資企業進行股權投資。

  • And so we're not really in the driver's seat on this one per se, but we're obviously very excited for them to be successful and down and hope that helps answer your questions.

    因此,我們本身並不是真正的主導者,但我們顯然對他們的成功感到非常興奮,並希望這有助於回答您的問題。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Yes, thank you.

    是的,謝謝。

  • And then may be a change gears here, but could you give us the latest business trends for Cartus and maybe how that's changed over the past couple of years?

    然後這裡可能會發生變化,但是您能給我們介紹 Cartus 的最新業務趨勢嗎?

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

    Charlotte Simonelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer

  • So as I sort of mentioned in the script, Q1 was definitely softer than Q1 of last year, but Q1 of last year still held some pent-up demand from prior softness.

    正如我在劇本中提到的,第一季肯定比去年第一季疲軟,但去年第一季仍然保留了一些因先前的疲軟而被壓抑的需求。

  • It's a very sort of cyclical business, too, and it's kind of tied to what our clients are doing and the macros impacting our clients, which is having them pull back on some some relocations.

    這也是一種週期性業務,它與我們的客戶正在做的事情以及影響我們客戶的宏觀因素有關,這讓他們撤回了一些搬遷。

  • So I think we still feel very good about our share and how our business is performing relative to others, but it was definitely much softer from a client initiation perspective.

    因此,我認為我們仍然對我們的份額以及我們的業務相對於其他公司的表現感到非常滿意,但從客戶啟動的角度來看,它肯定要軟得多。

  • I think you know that business tends to come back pretty quickly when the macro comes back.

    我想你知道,當宏觀經濟復甦時,業務往往會很快恢復。

  • So we'll see when that happens.

    所以我們會看看什麼時候會發生。

  • And I think we think for this year in now, like it's going to be a TBD, I think we're planning for sort of a modest business this year, but that can all change on a dime because it's really dependent on the budgets that our clients have.

    我認為我們認為今年,就像這將是一個待定,我認為我們今年計劃進行一項適度的業務,但這一切都可能瞬間改變,因為它實際上取決於預算我們的客戶有。

  • And then it's it can be can flip-flop very quickly.

    然後它就可以非常快速地翻轉。

  • But Q1 was definitely much softer than Q1 last year, but Q1 last year still had some pent-up demand from prior softness.

    但第一季肯定比去年第一季疲軟得多,但去年第一季仍然有一些因先前的疲軟而被壓抑的需求。

  • So we had a very strong 2022 and for the same reason, pent-up demand, which lingered into Q1 of '23, but it's been much softer, mostly tied to our clients pulling back just due to the macro and what they're facing Okay.

    因此,我們在2022 年經歷了非常強勁的成長,出於同樣的原因,被壓抑的需求一直持續到23 年第一季度,但需求已經疲軟得多,主要與我們的客戶因宏觀經濟和他們面臨的情況而撤回的需求有關好的。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • As there are no further questions, I would like to thank our speakers for today's presentation, and thank you for joining us.

    由於沒有其他問題,我要感謝今天的演講者的演講,並感謝您加入我們。

  • That concludes today's conference.

    今天的會議到此結束。

  • You may now disconnect.

    您現在可以斷開連線。