Anywhere Real Estate Inc (HOUS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the AnyWare real estate year end 2023 earnings conference call via webcast.

早安，歡迎透過網路廣播參加 AnyWare 房地產 2023 年終財電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded and a written transcript will be made available in the Investor Information section of the company's website tomorrow.

今天的電話會議正在錄音，明天將在公司網站的投資者資訊部分提供書面記錄。

A webcast replay will also be made available on the company's website.

該公司網站上也將提供網路廣播重播。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to AnyWare Senior Vice President, Alicia Swift.

這次，我想將會議轉交給 AnyWare 資深副總裁 Alicia Swift。

Please go ahead, Alicia.

請繼續，艾麗西亞。

Thank you, Brianna.

謝謝你，布麗安娜。

Good morning and welcome to the year end 2023 earnings conference call for AnyWare real estate.

早安，歡迎參加 AnyWare 房地產 2023 年底收益電話會議。

On the call with me today are AnyWare CEO and President, Ryan Schneider, and Chief Financial Officer, Charlotte Simonelli.

今天與我通話的有 AnyWare 執行長兼總裁 Ryan Schneider 和財務長 Charlotte Simonelli。

As shown on slide 3 of the presentation, the Company will be making statements about its future results and other forward-looking statements during this call.

如簡報投影片 3 所示，本公司將在本次電話會議期間發表有關其未來業績的聲明和其他前瞻性聲明。

These statements are based on the current expectations and the current economic environment.

這些陳述是基於當前的預期和當前的經濟環境。

Forward-looking statements, estimates and projections are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive antitrust and other litigation, regulatory and other uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of management, including among others, industry and macroeconomic developments Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward looking statements.

前瞻性陳述、估計和預測本質上受到重大經濟、競爭性反壟斷和其他訴訟、監管和其他不確定性和意外事件的影響，其中許多因素超出了管理層的控制範圍，包括行業和宏觀經濟發展等實際結果可能有所不同實質上來自前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的內容。

Last, the references made to January in these remarks, our actual results for the month January 2024 included one more business day than January 2023.

最後，在這些評論中提到 1 月時，我們 2024 年 1 月的實際結果比 2023 年 1 月多了一個工作天。

Our discussions on January closed volume have been disclosed as both unadjusted and adjusted to reflect like-for-like number of business days.

我們對一月收盤量的討論已披露為未經調整和調整以反映同類工作天數。

Important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are specified in our earnings release issued today as well as in our annual and quarterly SEC filings.

我們今天發布的收益報告以及我們向 SEC 提交的年度和季度文件中詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的重要假設和因素。

For those who listen to the rebroadcast of this presentation, we remind you that the remarks made herein are as of today, February 15 and have not been updated subsequent to the initial earnings call.

對於那些收聽重播本簡報的人，我們提醒您，本文中的言論截至今天 2 月 15 日，在首次財報電話會議後尚未更新。

Now I will call turn the call over to our CEO and President, Ryan Schneider.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的執行長兼總裁 Ryan Schneider。

Very do so much, Alicia, and good morning, everyone.

非常感謝，艾莉西亞，大家早安。

I'm incredibly excited about 2024.

我對 2024 年感到非常興奮。

There's more optimism in the housing market.

房地產市場更加樂觀。

We have increasing competitive advantages as a company, and we continue to demonstrate our ability to deliver results and I'm really proud of what anywhere real estate accomplished in 2023.

作為一家公司，我們的競爭優勢日益增強，我們不斷展示我們交付成果的能力，我對任何地方的房地產在 2023 年取得的成就感到非常自豪。

It was an incredibly difficult year in the housing market with the fewest home sale transactions since 1995, combined with unprecedented industry litigation challenges, all the while the AnyWare team stayed focused on our strategic agenda, we continued our track record of delivering meaningful results, even as we navigated the challenging market conditions.

這是房地產市場極其困難的一年，房屋銷售交易量是自1995 年以來最少的，再加上前所未有的行業訴訟挑戰，儘管AnyWare 團隊始終專注於我們的戰略議程，但我們仍繼續保持交付有意義成果的記錄，甚至當我們在應對充滿挑戰的市場條件時。

We generated $200 million of operating EBITDA and $67 million of free cash flow in 2023.

2023 年，我們產生了 2 億美元的營運 EBITDA 和 6,700 萬美元的自由現金流。

Our EBITDA would have been meaningfully higher without our litigation reserves.

如果沒有我們的訴訟準備金，我們的 EBITDA 將會顯著提高。

And our free cash flow would have been above $100 million without litigation payments and taxes related to debt transactions.

如果沒有訴訟費用和與債務交易相關的稅收，我們的自由現金流將超過 1 億美元。

The ability to generate these levels of EBITDA and free cash flow even in such a challenging year for housing demonstrates our financial octane, which is a clear competitive differentiator.

即使在房地產行業充滿挑戰的一年中，我們仍能產生如此水平的 EBITDA 和自由現金流，這證明了我們的金融辛烷值，這是一個明顯的競爭優勢。

We realized over $200 million of cost savings as we continued to simplify, automate and streamline our operations for the future.

隨著我們繼續簡化、自動化和簡化未來的運營，我們實現了超過 2 億美元的成本節省。

And we have another $100 million of cost savings targeted for 2024.

我們的目標是到 2024 年再省 1 億美元的成本。

We continually focus on permanently lowering our cost base, which gives us significant earnings power, especially in more normal housing markets.

我們不斷致力於永久降低成本基礎，這為我們提供了巨大的獲利能力，尤其是在更正常的房地產市場。

And now in 2023, we also improved our capital structure with more than $300 million of debt reduction.

現在到了 2023 年，我們也改善了我們的資本結構，減少了超過 3 億美元的債務。

Continuing debt reduction is critical and remains a top capital allocation priority.

持續削減債務至關重要，並且仍然是資本配置的首要任務。

We utilized our competitively advantaged financials to invest in the business for future success.

我們利用具有競爭優勢的財務狀況對業務進行投資，以實現未來的成功。

Unlike competitors who have had to pull back given the DOWN 2023 housing market, we delivered products, marketing, data, AI and automation wins all to enhance our value proposition to help position us for future growth and to streamline our company.

與因2023 年房地產市場下滑而不得不退出的競爭對手不同，我們提供了產品、行銷、數據、人工智慧和自動化的勝利，以增強我們的價值主張，幫助我們為未來的成長做好準備，並精簡我們的公司。

For example, integrating and digitizing our brokerage and title operations to better assist agents and consumers from contract to close, creating a more frictionless transaction experience, growing our franchise network, one of our most important strategic priorities through new and expanded offerings like affiliate insights, listings, direct and upward title, strengthening our luxury leadership position through continued domestic and international expansion of our high end brands, growing our auction partnership with Sotheby's auction house and demonstrating our preeminent position selling the most expensive homes in America, including a $295 million listing that we recently brought to the market and continuing our aggressive generative AI. agenda across many parts of our company.

例如，整合和數位化我們的經紀和產權業務，以更好地協助代理商和消費者從合約到成交，創造更順暢的交易體驗，發展我們的特許經營網絡，這是我們透過新的和擴展的產品（如聯盟洞察）最重要的戰略重點之一，清單、直接和向上的所有權，透過我們高端品牌的持續國內和國際擴張，加強我們的豪華領導地位，擴大我們與蘇富比拍賣行的拍賣合作夥伴關係，並展示我們在銷售美國最昂貴房屋（包括價值2.95 億美元的清單）方面的卓越地位我們最近將其推向市場，並繼續我們積極的生成人工智能。我們公司許多部門的議程。

Our biggest success scaling our generative AI. pilots since we last spoke, are happening across brokerage and title operations and in marketing, as we are automating operational tasks and increasing our efficiency.

我們最大的成功是擴展我們的生成式人工智慧。自從我們上次發言以來，試點工作正在經紀和產權運營以及行銷領域進行，因為我們正在自動化營運任務並提高效率。

Finally, we successfully architected the first nationwide settlement in the seller antitrust class-action litigation.

最終，我們在賣方反壟斷集體訴訟中成功達成了全國首例和解。

We are passionate about spending our leadership time and growing our business and supporting our customers rather than on litigation.

我們熱衷於花費我們的領導時間來發展我們的業務並支持我們的客戶，而不是訴訟。

Others have written that our position is a competitive advantage relative to the competition who face large judgments or lawsuits.

其他人則寫道，相對於面臨重大判決或訴訟的競爭對手，我們的地位是一種競爭優勢。

And we agree with that and hope to capitalize on it going forward.

我們同意這一點，並希望未來能夠利用它。

And we look forward to our final approval hearing on May 9.

我們期待 5 月 9 日舉行最終批准聽證會。

So as I started the call, we are really excited about 2024.

因此，當我開始通話時，我們對 2024 年感到非常興奮。

We are seeing more optimism and positivity around housing.

我們看到人們對房屋市場更加樂觀和積極。

The market was very weak throughout 2023, with our end markets volume down almost 20% year over year as there were only [$4.1 million] home sale transactions here in the United States, but we've started to see some green shoots in the macro economy.

整個 2023 年市場非常疲軟，我們的終端市場成交量同比下降近 20%，因為美國的房屋銷售交易量僅為 [410 萬美元]，但我們已經開始看到宏觀方面的一些萌芽經濟。

Mortgage rates have come down over recent months, consumer sentiment around housing is improving and recently hit a two year high this month, and there are possibilities for rate cuts in 2024.

近幾個月抵押貸款利率有所下降，圍繞住房的消費者信心正在改善，並於本月觸及兩年來的新高，2024 年有可能降息。

Now beyond the macro improving we really like the early indicators we're seeing in our book.

現在，除了宏觀改善之外，我們真的很喜歡我們在書中看到的早期指標。

Our open volume in December was up 8% year over year with growth in both units and price.

我們 12 月份的開放量年增 8%，單位數量和價格均有所增長。

This was the 1st month, we saw positive open volume since December of 2021, and our January results continued the strengthening trend.

這是自 2021 年 12 月以來第一個月，我們看到了積極的未平倉量，並且我們 1 月份的業績延續了走強的趨勢。

January closed volume was up 9% year over year with growth in units and price.

隨著單位數量和價格的增長，1 月份成交量年增 9%。

However, there was an additional business day in January, but like-for-like January closed volume was still up 4% year over year.

不過，1 月多了一個工作日，但 1 月成交量仍年增 4%。

Home prices continue to be resilient as more than 80% of the country saw price gains in our portfolio in the quarter.

房價持續保持彈性，本季我們的投資組合中超過 80% 的地區價格上漲。

That continues to illustrate the lack of supply challenges in the market.

這繼續說明市場缺乏供應挑戰。

One of the biggest factors that made 2023 such a tough year for housing, we see demand greater than supply also showing up in other other metrics.

導致 2023 年房屋市場如此艱難的一年的最大因素之一是需求大於供應，這也反映在其他指標中。

For example, a larger percentage of homes in our portfolio are selling in the first two weeks than they've done in prior year.

例如，我們投資組合中的房屋在前兩週內售出的比例高於去年。

Now beyond potentially turning the corner with some volume momentum, we like our differentiated results in the market.

現在，除了可能以一定的銷售勢頭扭轉局面之外，我們還喜歡我們在市場上的差異化結果。

Most striking is the strength of our luxury business, particularly our Sotheby's International Realty brand, whose close volume in the quarter was actually up year over year when both the market and our overall portfolio's volumes were down and our luxury leadership also serves us well moving forward as the listings growth we're seeing today on million-dollar-plus homes is meaningfully outpacing the listings trajectory, both in the market and in the rest of our portfolio.

最引人注目的是我們奢侈品業務的實力，尤其是我們的蘇富比國際地產品牌，當市場和我們整體投資組合的銷量都下降時，該季度的成交量實際上同比增長，而我們的奢侈品領導力也為我們的前進提供了良好的幫助我們今天看到的百萬美元以上房屋的掛牌增長速度明顯超過了掛牌軌跡，無論是在市場上還是在我們的其他投資組合中。

Now while we have a lot of optimism heading into 2024 the two biggest issues of 2023 will both bear watching this year.

現在，儘管我們對 2024 年充滿樂觀情緒，但 2023 年的兩個最大問題今年都值得關注。

First, with 2023, historically tough year for housing, even meaningful growth above 2020, three's numbers will still be another challenging year for the housing ecosystem.

首先，2023 年是住房歷史上艱難的一年，即使在 2020 年以上實現有意義的增長，三個數字仍將是住房生態系統又一個充滿挑戰的一年。

And second, while we've settled our litigation, the industry and regulatory dynamics at play in residential real estate are still ongoing.

其次，雖然我們已經解決了訴訟，但住宅房地產領域的行業和監管動態仍在繼續。

You should know that we're bringing the same proactive thinking in leadership as the industry evolves that we demonstrated in our litigation strategy.

您應該知道，隨著行業的發展，我們在領導層中引入了與我們在訴訟策略中所展示的相同的主動思維。

And I continue to believe the medium-term outlook for housing is quite strong.

我仍然相信房地產的中期前景相當強勁。

Given both future demographics and the potential for lower interest rates.

考慮到未來的人口統計和降低利率的潛力。

And if you look at our 2023 results delivery relative to the competition, our business improvements throughout the year and how our financial octane translates as the housing market rebounds.

如果你看看我們相對於競爭對手的 2023 年業績交付情況、我們全年的業務改善以及我們的金融辛烷值如何隨著房地產市場的反彈而轉化。

It's hard not to be excited like we are.

很難不像我們一樣興奮。

I appreciate how the world has recognized anywhere real estate's great work as we've been named one of America's most innovative companies by Fortune, enter the Forbes list of World's Best Employers for the 3rd year in a row.

我很欣賞世界各地對房地產業偉大工作的認可，我們被《財富》雜誌評為美國最具創新力的公司之一，並連續第三年進入福布斯全球最佳雇主排行榜。

This is in addition to our track record as a World's Most Ethical Company for a dozen years and a great place to work for six years.

除此之外，我們還連續十多年被評為“全球最具商業道德公司”，並連續六年被評為“最佳工作場所”。

Now, everything I've spoken about is because of our great employees, agents and franchisees who helped anywhere lead through 2023.

現在，我所說的一切都是因為我們優秀的員工、代理商和加盟商幫助任何地方實現了 2023 年的領先。

I'd like to thank them for their commitment and energy in a tough year, and I love the optimism.

我要感謝他們在艱難的一年中的奉獻和精力，我喜歡他們的樂觀態度。

I'm hearing from our people about what's ahead for the housing market and for anywhere real estate in 2024.

我從我們的員工那裡了解到 2024 年房地產市場和任何房地產的前景。

With that, let me turn it over to Charlotte that morning, everyone.

就這樣，讓我那天早上把它交給夏洛特，各位。

We had many successes in 2023.

2023 年我們取得了許多成功。

Despite the challenging market, we generated meaningful operating EBITDA.

儘管市場充滿挑戰，我們仍產生了有意義的經營 EBITDA。

We overdelivered on cost savings.

我們超額實現了成本節約。

We mitigated future risk with our legal settlements.

我們透過法律和解降低了未來的風險。

We improved our capital structure with sizable debt reduction.

我們透過大幅削減債務來改善資本結構。

We saw the best commission split trends we've seen in years, and we prudently managed our cash.

我們看到了多年來最好的佣金分配趨勢，並且我們謹慎地管理我們的現金。

We continue to execute on our controllables and position AnyWare for success going forward.

我們繼續執行我們的可控措施，並使 AnyWare 成功。

We believe these accomplishments, along with our progress on strategic objectives will drive differentiated results relative to our peers and lead us to deliver long-term value to our shareholders.

我們相信，這些成就以及我們在策略目標上的進展將帶來相對於同業的差異化結果，並引導我們為股東創造長期價值。

I will now highlight our full year 2023 financial results.

現在我將重點介紹我們 2023 年全年的財務表現。

We delivered full year 2023 revenue of $5.6 billion and operating EBITDA of $200 million, even despite significantly lower industry transaction volumes, our operating EBITDA would have been meaningfully higher without approximately $50 million of litigation reserves that we took for both antitrust and non antitrust litigation.

我們的2023 年全年收入為56 億美元，營業EBITDA 為2 億美元，儘管行業交易量大幅下降，但如果沒有我們為反壟斷和非反壟斷訴訟提取的約5000 萬美元的訴訟準備金，我們的營業EBITDA 將會顯著提高。

We generated free cash flow of $67 million and our free cash flow without taxes related to debt transactions and litigation payments would have been above $100 million.

我們產生了 6,700 萬美元的自由現金流，如果不考慮與債務交易和訴訟付款相關的稅費，我們的自由現金流將超過 1 億美元。

Our free cash flow was up year over year due to improved working capital and lower CapEx, offset in part by lower EBITDA.

由於營運資本改善和資本支出下降，我們的自由現金流量較去年同期成長，但 EBITDA 下降在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。

Our improved working capital was primarily driven by lower incentives paid in Q1 2023.

我們的營運資金改善主要是因為 2023 年第一季支付的激勵措施減少。

Consistent with our capital allocation priorities, we used our free cash flow to make selective investments in the business to drive growth including attracting agents and franchisees at better margins and expanding products and services with the highest ROIs.

根據我們的資本配置優先事項，我們利用自由現金流對業務進行選擇性投資，以推動成長，包括以更高的利潤吸引代理商和特許經營商，並以最高的投資回報率擴展產品和服務。

And we continue to drastically improve both our cost and capital structures.

我們繼續大幅改善我們的成本和資本結構。

This year.

今年。

We reduced debt by over $300 million in 2023, which represents over $900 million in debt reduction since 2019.

2023 年，我們減少了超過 3 億美元的債務，這意味著自 2019 年以來債務減少了超過 9 億美元。

We are always evaluating ways to further improve our capital structure.

我們一直在評估進一步改善資本結構的方法。

And I feel confident in our ability to weather the current market with only about $200 million due before 2026 and ample liquidity remaining on our $1.1 billion revolver.

我對我們能夠應對當前市場的情況充滿信心，因為我們在 2026 年之前到期的金額僅為約 2 億美元，而且我們的 11 億美元左輪手槍還留有充足的流動性。

We realized $222 million of cost savings, which was about 10% higher than our target last year.

我們實現了 2.22 億美元的成本節省，比去年的目標高出約 10%。

And we have identified another $100 million cost savings target for 2024, which continues our multiyear trend of reducing costs in the business.

我們也確定了到 2024 年再節省 1 億美元成本的目標，這延續了我們多年來降低業務成本的趨勢。

Now let me go into more detail on our business segment.

現在讓我更詳細地介紹一下我們的業務部門。

Performance.

表現。

Our AnyWare brands business generated $527 million in 2023 operating EBITDA while down versus prior year, driven by historically soft industry volumes.

我們的 AnyWare 品牌業務在 2023 年經營 EBITDA 產生了 5.27 億美元，但由於行業銷量歷史疲軟的推動，較上年有所下降。

We love our powerful franchise business with its recurring royalty stream, high margins and its relative stability over time.

我們喜歡我們強大的特許經營業務，因為它具有經常性的特許權使用費流、高利潤率以及隨著時間的推移相對穩定。

Our AnyWare advisors operating EBITDA was negative $144 million in 2023.

2023 年，由我們的 AnyWare 顧問營運的 EBITDA 為負 1.44 億美元。

However, this business generated $171 million in operating EBITDA before the transfer of inter-company royalties and marketing fees paid to our franchise business commission splits were 80.2% in 2023, up 46 basis points year over year, with 15 basis points of that increase coming from lower new development business in 2023.

然而，在公司間特許權使用費和行銷費用轉移支付給我們的特許經營業務佣金分成之前，該業務產生了1.71 億美元的經營EBITDA，到2023 年為80.2%，同比增長46 個基點，未來還將成長15 個基點2023 年新開發業務減少。

We continue to like the moderation.

我們仍然喜歡適度。

We stand splits with only four basis points of year-over-year increase in the fourth quarter and in the fourth quarter, splits would have been down year over year.

我們認為第四季的分拆率較去年同期僅成長四個基點，而第四季的分拆率將較去年同期下降。

Excluding the new development impact, the improvement in split pressure this year was driven by lower volumes, more stable agent mix, better recruiting economic and other proactive actions we have taken, and we see those continuing into 2024.

排除新的發展影響，今年分流壓力的改善是由銷售減少、代理商組合更穩定、招聘經濟更好以及我們採取的其他積極行動推動的，我們認為這些行動將持續到 2024 年。

Anyway.

反正。

Integrated Services operating EBITDA was negative $17 million in 2023 due to lower purchase and refinance volumes, which was partially offset by cost savings.

由於採購和再融資量減少，2023 年綜合服務業者 EBITDA 為負 1,700 萬美元，但成本節省部分抵銷了這一影響。

We saw improved GRA performance, which was $22 million better than prior year.

我們看到 GRA 績效有所改善，比去年增加了 2,200 萬美元。

And given the tough market, we were pretty happy that our mortgage JV was able to breakeven for the year.

鑑於市場嚴峻，我們很高興我們的抵押貸款合資公司今年能夠實現收支平衡。

I will now provide our current outlook for 2024.

我現在將提供我們目前對 2024 年的展望。

As mentioned, we expect to deliver about $100 million in additional 2024 cost reductions, including carryover of approximately $40 million of actions already taken in 2023.

如前所述，我們預計 2024 年將額外削減約 1 億美元的成本，其中包括結轉 2023 年已採取的約 4,000 萬美元的行動。

Some of these savings will come from integrating and digitizing our support services for brokerage and title, further reducing our real estate footprint and product rationalization and automation across the enterprise.

其中一些節省將來自整合和數位化我們的經紀和產權支援服務，進一步減少我們的房地產足跡以及整個企業的產品合理化和自動化。

These savings will be offset in part by inflationary pressures.

這些節省將部分被通膨壓力所抵消。

We like the free cash flow our business delivers and that we demonstrated in 2023.

我們喜歡我們的業務提供的自由現金流，我們在 2023 年展示了這一點。

However, remember, we have over $100 million of payments expected in 2024 between our $73.5 million class action litigation payments and the $38 million legacy California tax matter as possible headwinds.

然而，請記住，在 7,350 萬美元的集體訴訟付款和 3,800 萬美元的加州遺留稅務問題之間，預計 2024 年我們將支付超過 1 億美元的款項，這可能是不利因素。

The strength or weakness of the housing market will also be one of the biggest drivers of our free cash flow in the year.

房地產市場的強弱也將是我們今年自由現金流的最大驅動因素之一。

Consistent with Ryan's remarks, we are seeing a bit of volume improvement at the start of the year but most of the overall improvement in industry forecast comes in the back half of the year.

與 Ryan 的言論一致，我們看到年初銷量有所改善，但產業預測的整體改善大部分出現在下半年。

And given that you should expect the shape of our earnings in 2024 to look similar to the shape of 2023.

鑑於您應該預期 2024 年我們的獲利狀況將與 2023 年相似。

We expect more normal seasonal volumes throughout the year, and Q1 is still at historically low unit volumes, which will likely drive our EBITDA negative in the quarter.

我們預計全年的季節性銷售量會更加正常，而第一季的單位銷售仍處於歷史低位，這可能會導致我們本季的 EBITDA 為負值。

As the market leader, we have proven our ability to navigate tough markets by continuing to prioritize investing for growth while also delivering efficiencies for today and tomorrow, we continue to be focused on reducing debt, and all of this will position us for an even stronger future.

作為市場領導者，我們已經證明了我們有能力應對嚴峻的市場，繼續優先考慮成長投資，同時提高今天和明天的效率，我們繼續專注於減少債務，所有這些將使我們變得更加強大未來。

Let me now turn the call back to Ryan for some closing remarks.

現在讓我把電話轉回給瑞安，讓他發表一些結束語。

Thank you showed I'm incredibly proud of all the AnyWare team leading delivered through the 2023 housing market.

謝謝你們，我對 AnyWare 團隊領導的 2023 年房屋市場交付感到非常自豪。

We generated meaningful operating EBITDA and free cash flow reduced our debt invested in the business for future growth, over-delivered on our cost savings and mitigated risks by reaching a nationwide settlement in our antitrust litigation.

我們產生了有意義的經營 EBITDA 和自由現金流，減少了我們投資於未來成長業務的債務，超額實現了成本節約，並透過在全國反壟斷訴訟中達成和解來降低風險。

2024 is about anywhere real estate, executing on what we can control, delivering on our strategic agenda and utilizing our competitive advantages to drive growth to outperform the market and to lower deliver value for our agents, our franchisees and our shareholders.

2024 年，任何房地產都將執行我們可以控制的事情，實現我們的策略議程，並利用我們的競爭優勢來推動成長，超越市場，並降低為我們的代理商、特許經營商和股東創造的價值。

With that, we will take your questions.

這樣，我們將回答您的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

At this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad.

此時，我想提醒大家，要問，請按星號，然後按電話鍵盤上的數字一。

Your first question comes from

你的第一個問題來自

Soham Bhonsle, BTIG.

Soham Bhonsle，BTIG。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Hope you're doing well on.

希望你一切順利。

So I guess the first.

所以我猜是第一個。

Great.

偉大的。

And I guess the first one for either Brian or Charlotte on thinking about the long-term margins for the business for a second.

我想布萊恩或夏洛特的第一個想法是思考業務的長期利潤。

So you know, over the past couple of years, obviously you've been on this cost reduction journey.

所以你知道，在過去的幾年裡，顯然你一直在降低成本。

There's probably some that comes back as volumes come back.

隨著銷量的恢復，可能會有一些恢復。

But it seems like you're trying to change how you operate all together.

但你似乎正在努力改變大家的運作方式。

So I guess my question is, historically, this business has been call it a low double-digit margin business.

所以我想我的問題是，從歷史上看，這項業務一直被稱為低兩位數利潤業務。

But in a normalized market, where do you think your margins can go?

但在正常化的市場中，您認為您的利潤可以去哪裡？

Yes.

是的。

So I think prior to this, the housing market that we're seeing this year, meaning 2023, we have been at double low double digit margins.

因此，我認為在此之前，我們今年（即 2023 年）看到的房地產市場，我們的利潤率一直處於雙低兩位數的水平。

I mean, they've been different years.

我的意思是，他們經歷了不同的歲月。

Some have been sort of Q2 year.

有些是第二季的。

Some have been more normal years.

有些年份比較正常。

And so I think it depends on the year.

所以我認為這取決於年份。

But yes, we have had lower double digit margins.

但是，是的，我們的兩位數利潤率較低。

I think what's important to know for going forward is that, yes, we are trying to change how we work.

我認為，對於前進來說，重要的是要知道，是的，我們正在努力改變我們的工作方式。

And so the cost savings that we're taking out today are less likely to be added back when the housing market improves because these are like structural changes to our business.

因此，當房地產市場好轉時，我們今天節省的成本不太可能重新增加，因為這就像我們業務的結構性變化。

So I'm optimistic that we will be able to keep more of this cost out of the business as the market come back comes back and I'm sure there's always going to be a bit of investment that we have to make as the market improves, both in like people to support the transactions and other marketing related costs that will correlate to volume.

因此，我樂觀地認為，隨著市場的回升，我們將能夠將更多的成本排除在業務之外，而且我確信，隨著市場的改善，我們總是必須進行一些投資，無論是支持交易的類似人員也是與數量相關的其他行銷相關成本。

But I'm actually very optimistic that a lot of the work we're doing today are going to be costs that stay out of the business.

但我其實非常樂觀，我們今天所做的許多工作都將是不涉及業務的成本。

Yes, look, we had an explicit that, you know, two thirds of our cost reduction we think is totally permit, right?

是的，看，我們明確表示，我們認為三分之二的成本削減是完全允許的，對吧？

We've been explicit in the past on the temp versus permanent split.

我們過去已經明確討論過臨時分裂與永久分裂。

And then remember within that total margin, we also have the 40 plus percent margin franchise business that we're loving, our growth on that are strategically prioritizing along with the luxury area.

然後請記住，在總利潤率內，我們還擁有我們所喜愛的 40% 以上利潤率的特許經營業務，我們的成長與奢侈品領域一起在戰略上處於優先地位。

And so we're always we're hoping we can do even more on that that helps the overall margin, but that that franchise business and the financial octane we get from that is frankly probably one of the competitive advantages we've got.

因此，我們總是希望我們能夠在這方面做得更多，以提高整體利潤率，但坦白說，特許經營業務和我們從中獲得的金融辛烷可能是我們擁有的競爭優勢之一。

And keep in mind, none of the $100 million of cost savings is as temporary.

請記住，這 1 億美元的成本節省都不是暫時的。

The $100 million for this year is all permanent?

今年的一億都是永久的？

Yes.

是的。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And Charlotte, the historically the $15 million to $17 million framework for every 100 basis points in volume.

而夏洛特，歷來是每 100 個基點交易量 1500 萬至 1700 萬美元的框架。

Is that still a fair way to think about the business this year or is there any other puts and takes we should be thinking about.

這仍然是考慮今年業務的公平方式嗎？或者我們還應該考慮其他任何看跌期權和看跌期權。

Yes, I think that number is more on a normal housing market.

是的，我認為這個數字在正常的房地產市場上更高。

I think with the volumes that we're seeing today, it's definitely a little bit lower than that, and it's because more of this is impacted in units versus price.

我認為，從我們今天看到的數量來看，它肯定比這個要低一些，這是因為其中更多的是單位與價格的影響。

So yes, I would say it's definitely lower than that in the housing market that we were in in 2023, and we'll see what happens to the housing market.

所以，是的，我想說這肯定低於 2023 年房地產市場的水平，我們將看看房地產市場會發生什麼。

But keep in mind off of this low base, like even a 10% improvement in the housing market is still a low housing market.

但請記住，遠離這個低基數，即使房地產市場改善 10%，仍然是一個低水準的房地產市場。

Right.

正確的。

And then just last one on the comments around commissions, Blair, it's obviously encouraging trends there.

最後一篇關於佣金的評論，布萊爾，這顯然是令人鼓舞的趨勢。

But did you mean to say in 2024, we should expect similar to what we saw in Q4, which was close to flat or what you sort of produced in all of 2023.

但你的意思是說，到 2024 年，我們應該期待與第四季度類似的情況，接近持平或你在 2023 年全年的產量。

So there's three factors that are going to drive the commission splits.

因此，三個因素將推動佣金分配。

And I intentionally didn't give a number because the single biggest driver is going to be volume.

我故意沒有給出具體數字，因為最大的推動因素是銷量。

And I think those are going to evolve, volume will evolve over the year.

我認為這些都會發生變化，數量也會在一年內發生變化。

And I think you can look at the industry forecast, huge swings expected in the back half, but we haven't seen those yet so part of the reason I'm not giving an actual numbers of volume's going to be a huge piece of that.

我認為你可以看看行業預測，預計下半年會出現巨大波動，但我們還沒有看到這些，所以我沒有給出實際數量的部分原因將是其中很大一部分。

I think I called out the new development business for a reason over the five years I've been here, it's never been more than a couple of basis points impact.

我想我在這五年裡提出新的開發業務是有原因的，它的影響力從來不超過幾個基點。

Europe like up year over year this year was 15 basis points.

歐洲今年年增了15個基點。

It was a huge impact.

這是一個巨大的影響。

So to the extent that we get back to a more normal new development business and out of it, which is highly correlated to New York City, then that will be less of a headwind for us in 2024 for the third factor and is sort of the amortization of recruiting and retention payments.

因此，如果我們回到更正常的新開發業務並擺脫它，這與紐約市高度相關，那麼到 2024 年，第三個因素對我們的阻力就會減少，這在某種程度上是招募和保留付款的攤銷。

And so to the extent that we had much improved economics in 2023.

因此，到 2023 年，我們的經濟狀況將會大大改善。

The negative impact from that amortization will also be improved in 2024.

該攤銷帶來的負面影響也將在 2024 年改善。

But I think you can't really correlate one quarter to a year on.

但我認為你無法真正將一個季度與一年聯繫起來。

And so I think you don't think of it year over year with the three factors that I've just given you, it will depend on volume, if new developments is in a sort of a nil impact on an annual basis next year.

因此，我認為您不會逐年考慮我剛剛給您的三個因素，這將取決於數量，如果明年新的開發對年度影響為零。

That will also be a favorable year-over-year comparison.

這也將是一個有利的同比比較。

And we should also see a slight favorable year-over-year comparison on the amortization program under control because.

我們還應該看到攤銷計劃的同比比較略有有利，因為。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Thanks for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

I just wanted to ask around the commission rates news some maybe one way to put the question would be and obviously congratulations on all the work with the settlement or this past year, but kind of as we think about maybe some of the risks from the DOJ, how does how does the settlement kind of shield you from that potential risk?

我只是想詢問有關佣金率的消息，也許一種提出問題的方式是，顯然祝賀所有和解工作或過去一年的工作，但有點像我們認為可能來自司法部的一些風險，和解如何保護您免受潛在風險？

And then maybe just kind of thinking a little beyond that, just the potential kind of range of outcomes in this industry from a commission perspective, kind of how are you positioning the business communicating with agents and all that on that, just in case you have, again a different range of potential outcomes there.

然後也許只是稍微思考一下，從佣金的角度來看，這個行業的潛在結果範圍，你如何定位與代理商溝通的業務以及所有這些，以防萬一你有，同樣存在不同範圍的潛在結果。

We'll look, you know, first off, we're very happy to have mitigated risk with the nationwide settlement and obviously, protecting our agents and franchisees from that exposure is a really important thing, and we feel like we've accomplished that.

我們會看，你知道，首先，我們很高興透過全國性和解降低了風險，顯然，保護我們的代理商和特許經營商免受這種風險的影響是一件非常重要的事情，我們覺得我們已經做到了這一點。

And then obviously, we can spend our management time and dollars on growing the business and supporting those folks.

顯然，我們可以將管理時間和金錢用於發展業務和支持這些人。

We're not going to speculate on anything related to the DOJ, but we do believe in the world that we need fewer mandatory MLS rules.

我們不會猜測任何與 DOJ 有關的事情，但我們確實相信世界上我們需要更少的強制性 MLS 規則。

We love the value agents provide.

我們喜歡代理商提供的價值。

And you know, we are always thinking through different strategic ways that markets may evolve, but we were excited to get our settlement done, get the preliminary approval back in November, and we look forward to the final approval on May 9.

你知道，我們一直在思考市場可能發展的不同策略方式，但我們很高興能完成和解，並在 11 月獲得初步批准，我們期待 5 月 9 日獲得最終批准。

And beyond that, I don't think we're in the speculation business.

除此之外，我不認為我們從事投機業務。

Yes.

是的。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And secondly, maybe just kind of zooming into the more recent kind of market trends.

其次，也許只是關注最近的市場趨勢。

I think you said January, excluding the extra day was sort of up 4%.

我想你說的是 1 月份，不包括額外的一天，成長了 4%。

It sounds like you had a good result there in December as well.

聽起來你在 12 月也取得了不錯的成績。

So just kind of delving into that a little bit kind of what are you seeing regionally interest rate volatility has been extreme As always, these past few weeks.

因此，只要深入研究一下您所看到的區域利率波動情況，過去幾週一如既往地極端。

So kind of any additional kind of unpacking of those trends over these past few weeks.

對過去幾週這些趨勢的任何其他形式的解釋。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

So you know, look at some it's obviously a time that you're up versus down is good.

所以你知道，看看一些，這顯然是你上升與下降的時候是好的。

And that's so that's a good thing right there on you all see the same rate stuff we see.

因此，這是一件好事，你們都可以看到我們所看到的相同速率的東西。

So I was trying to read too much of that on the geography mixes are different out there.

所以我試著讀太多關於地理混合不同的內容。

You know, Florida remains quite strong.

你知道，佛羅裡達州仍然相當強大。

We wish we had more inventory to sell in Florida, and that is just kind of an awesome market that's doing great.

我們希望我們有更多的庫存可以在佛羅裡達州銷售，那是一個表現出色的很棒的市場。

New York's kind of lagging, you know, New York you know, both Q4 and full year volume was down more than the market national numbers and more than our portfolio.

紐約的滯後，你知道，紐約，你知道，第四季和全年成交量的下降幅度都超過了全國市場的數字，也超過了我們的投資組合。

It's a big market for us.

這對我們來說是一個很大的市場。

We'd love an update on New York coming back, but it's been a little bit of a headwind.

我們很想知道紐約回歸的最新消息，但這有點不利。

And then like I said in the call, we're seeing listings taking will be about flat basically on maybe a little bit positive year over year.

然後就像我在電話中所說的那樣，我們看到掛牌量將基本持平，但同比可能會略有增長。

But the places where listings are the best is actually in the luxury area, we're the leader and we like that.

但房源最好的地方其實是在奢侈品領域，我們是領導者，我們喜歡這一點。

We're seeing cash offers at it pretty much historical high levels.

我們看到現金報價幾乎處於歷史高點。

As I said in the script, we're seeing a home selling in the first two weeks in our portfolio, historically high levels.

正如我在劇本中所說，我們的投資組合在前兩週就出現了房屋銷售量，達到了歷史最高水準。

And so you know, end of the day, there is more demand than there is supply.

所以你知道，最終，需求多於供應。

Lower rates is going to help unlock more supply, obviously, and we're rooting for that.

顯然，較低的利率將有助於釋放更多的供應，我們對此表示支持。

And then you know, the the geographic mix out there is definitely different by geography and by by part of the country.

然後你知道，地理組合肯定會因地理位置和國家部分地區而異。

But we're we're excited that it's, you know, a little better than last year Great.

但我們很興奮，你知道，比去年好一點了，太棒了。

Thanks, Ryan, and good luck.

謝謝，瑞安，祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Tommy McJoynt with KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Tommy McJoynt。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for taking my questions on.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Hey, Charles, I can start with you on.

嘿，查爾斯，我可以從你開始。

So can you help us walk through the available cash resources?

那麼您能幫助我們了解一下可用的現金資源嗎？

You have about $1 billion of capacity under the revolving credit facility, and it looks like you tapped into that, Tom in January.

你的循環信貸額度大約有 10 億美元，看起來你已經利用了這一點，湯姆，一月份。

Can you just help us think through how much you might need to tap into that in order to get through to the spring when cash flow dynamics naturally improve?

您能否幫助我們思考一下您可能需要投入多少資金才能度過現金流動態自然改善的春天？

And then is the plan to pay that down quickly?

那麼是否有計劃快速償還這筆費用？

Or will priorities be focused elsewhere perhaps on other debt or other areas investment?

或者優先事項是否會集中在其他地方，例如其他債務或其他領域的投資？

And just how do you think about that?

您對此有何看法？

Yes.

是的。

So I think it's highly correlated to how well the housing market does how quickly we are able to satisfy the revolver.

所以我認為這與房地產市場的表現和我們滿足左輪手槍需求的速度高度相關。

And we ended the year at a pretty low position on the revolver, and it's kind of normal that we would use cash in the first quarter and even a decent housing market.

今年年底，我們在左輪手槍上的位置相當低，我們在第一季度使用現金，甚至在房地產市場表現良好的情況下使用現金，這是很正常的。

So I think what we're seeing now is actually a little bit better than our own internal forecast as far as revolver use.

所以我認為就左輪手槍的使用而言，我們現在所看到的實際上比我們自己的內部預測要好​​一些。

Yes, and it's likely to build like it does throughout the first quarter.

是的，而且它很可能會像第一季那樣發展。

We even like I said, and a good year, we start generating free cash flow, positive free cash flow in U.S. in a meaningful way and sort of like the May time period.

我們甚至像我說的那樣，這是一個美好的一年，我們開始以一種有意義的方式在美國產生自由現金流，正的自由現金流，有點像五月份的時期。

So yes, the revolver balance is likely to go up due to the normal Q1 seasonality, but also due to the the unusually soft housing market that we're in as far as like our plans for the future, as you know that we're always opportunistic on our capital structure.

所以，是的，由於正常的第一季季節性因素，左輪手槍餘額可能會增加，但也由於我們所處的異常疲軟的房地產市場，就我們未來的計劃而言，正如你所知，我們正在我們的資本結構總是機會主義的。

We're always evaluating things.

我們總是在評估事物。

We're super mindful of the small stub on the term loan A. that's also becoming due as you point out.

我們非常注意定期貸款 A 上的小存根，正如您指出的那樣，該存根也即將到期。

And as I said in the script, we have a $1.1 billion facility, and you can see that where we have tapped in so far.

正如我在腳本中所說，我們擁有 11 億美元的設施，您可以看到我們迄今為止已經投入的資金。

But like I said, we're prudently managing our cash as well.

但正如我所說，我們也在謹慎管理我們的現金。

We I feel very proud of the accomplishments of the team to really hone in on every bit of cash that we spent last year.

我對團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪，他們真正利用了我們去年花費的每一點現金。

I mean, it was sizable.

我的意思是，規模很大。

And like I'm very proud of the economics we had both on agent recruiting, but also on franchisee renewals and retention.

我對我們在代理商招募以及加盟商續約和保留方面的經濟效益感到非常自豪。

So I see a lot of that continuing into 2024.

所以我認為很多事情都會持續到 2024 年。

We really love our liquidity.

我們真的很喜歡我們的流動性。

We feel very comfortable with the liquidity that we have and we're going to continue to watch the markets and be opportunistic because there's quite a few different avenues we could go on.

我們對我們擁有的流動性感到非常滿意，我們將繼續關注市場並抓住機會，因為我們可以繼續採取許多不同的途徑。

But the quicker the housing market comes back, you can that's the faster we'll be paying down that revolver too.

但房地產市場恢復得越快，我們償還左輪手槍的錢就越快。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then next question on with all the media attention that the commission litigation has received.

然後下一個問題是關於委員會訴訟受到所有媒體關注的問題。

Have you started to see any increase in innovation around agent commission structures, whether it be flat fee or smaller service offerings?

您是否開始看到圍繞代理佣金結構的創新增加，無論是固定費用還是較小的服務產品？

Or has there really been no discernible shift away from the standard roughly 2.5% rate that's out there?

或者是否真的沒有明顯偏離現有的大約 2.5% 的標準利率？

Well, I wouldn't say to an apparatus standard.

好吧，我不會說設備標準。

I mean, it's there's a pretty wide variation when you look across our portfolio.

我的意思是，當你縱觀我們的產品組合時，會有很大的差異。

But putting that aside to your question, I would say no, but I would actually start at a different place.

但拋開你的問題不談，我會說不，但我實際上會從不同的地方開始。

And I asked this question to agents all the time, which is what are they hearing from their customers and you know, there's a while there's a big increase in press on this topic.

我一直向代理商問這個問題，這是他們從客戶那裡聽到的，你知道，有一段時間關於這個主題的媒體大幅增加。

Clearly other than like the days that stuff shows up in a Wall Street Journal or New York Times.

顯然，與那些出現在《華爾街日報》或《紐約時報》上的日子不同。

It doesn't get much consumer attention is what I'm hearing.

據我所知，它並沒有引起太多消費者的注意。

Obviously, there's a lot in the trade press that we all see and deal with everything.

顯然，貿易媒體中有很多我們都看到並處理過的​​內容。

So for example, you know, I was I was at one of our Coldwell Banker reality offices, I don't know 10 days ago, and I had meeting with like 20 of our agents who were kind of at the high end award winners for their 2023 results.

舉個例子，你知道，我在我們的 Coldwell Banker 現實辦公室之一，我不知道 10 天前，我會見了大約 20 名我們的經紀人，他們是他們 2023 年的結果。

And I ask that question, how many of you have had a bad customer to ask you about this nice commission news or lawsuits, and you know, it was very few hands went up and it was oh, yes.

我問這個問題，你們中有多少人遇到過壞客戶向你們詢問有關佣金的好消息或訴訟，你們知道，很少有人舉手，但哦，是的。

Got one question or whatever kind of thing.

有一個問題或任何一類問題。

I talked to another agent in Denver, her emails with her about, you know, no, she said she had like four people as she has addressed it with kind of thing.

我和丹佛的另一位經紀人談過，她發給她的電子郵件是關於，你知道，不，她說她有大約四個人，因為她已經用某種東西解決了這個問題。

So I don't think it is like really we got into the water in a way that has led to anything meaningfully changing yet.

所以我認為我們進入水中的方式還沒有帶來任何有意義的變化。

It doesn't mean we don't watch it closely.

這並不意味著我們不密切關注。

And it doesn't mean we're not, you know, as the earlier question asked thinking very strategically about the future.

你知道，這並不意味著我們沒有像之前的問題那樣對未來進行策略性思考。

But, you know, I don't think it's really like I said, kind of in the water yet in a way that's actually leading to anything.

但是，你知道，我不認為它真的像我說的那樣，有點在水中，但實際上卻能帶來任何結果。

On the flip side, though, we want to be ahead, we want to be innovators.

但另一方面，我們想領先，我們想成為創新者。

You know, we're we're we're big users of buyer agent and agent agreements, and we're going to be expanding that dramatically.

你知道，我們是買方代理和代理協議的大用戶，我們將大幅擴展這一範圍。

And part of the reason we're doing that is we got ahead on the settlement thing.

我們這樣做的部分原因是我們在和解事宜上取得了進展。

And so we kind of got a head start in doing that, we think.

我們認為，我們在這方面已經取得了領先優勢。

And so it will be, like I said in my script, you know, there's a lot going on here, but we're going to keep being proactive thinking about it and hopefully, the kind of strategic thinking and execution that led us to carve out a different position with the first, you know, nationwide settlement here gives you a little confidence that will be thinking strategically about these other topics and will hopefully steer us to better outcomes that a lot of our competitors are getting.

所以，就像我在劇本中所說的那樣，你知道，這裡發生了很多事情，但我們將繼續積極主動地思考它，並希望能夠形成那種戰略思維和執行力，使我們能夠成功與第一個全國性和解相比，我們採取了不同的立場，這給了你一點信心，讓你能夠策略性地思考這些其他主題，並有望引導我們取得比許多競爭對手更好的結果。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from John Campbell with Stephens Inc., please go ahead.

您的下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 John Campbell，請繼續。

Good morning.

早安.

Hi, John.

你好，約翰。

So it was obviously encouraging to hear about the momentum you guys saw kind of exiting '23 and then obviously the growth and then closed volumes in January.

因此，聽到你們在 23 年退出時看到的勢頭，然後是明顯的增長，然後是 1 月份的成交量，這顯然是令人鼓舞的。

I'm hoping, Brian, maybe maybe provide a little bit more color on the sides and price mix.

我希望，布萊恩，也許可以在側面和價格組合上提供更多一點的顏色。

And then maybe to what extent you can just talk to the open listings activity and what that's signaling as far as units and price, I'm guessing that was probably pretty similar to what you probably saw in the closed activity, but any kind of pull out there?

然後，也許您可以在多大程度上談論公開掛牌活動，以及就單位和價格而言，這表明了什麼，我猜這可能與您在封閉活動中可能看到的非常相似，但任何形式的拉動在那裡？

Yes.

是的。

When you look at like December and January, this underscored in both units and price were up in one of the months.

當你看看 12 月和 1 月時，你會發現其中一個月份的單位和價格都上漲了。

I think prices up a little more than the units were on, but we hadn't seen units up in a long time.

我認為價格比單位價格上漲一點，但我們已經很久沒有看到單位上漲了。

In fact, I think I said we hadn't had open volume be up since December 2021.

事實上，我想我說過自 2021 年 12 月以來我們的未平倉量就沒有增加。

We hadn't had units be up year over year since May of 2021 and then they were up in December.

自 2021 年 5 月以來，我們的單位數量從未同比增長，但在 12 月又出現了增長。

And so the up the up in both December and January was a little bit kind of both the like I kind of said, you know, like in January, I think the price was up whatever 5% or 6% and the units were up 3% kind of thing.

因此，12 月和 1 月的上漲有點像我所說的，你知道，就像 1 月一樣，我認為價格上漲了 5% 或 6%，單位上漲了 3% ％ 之類的事情。

So it's a mix of both.

所以它是兩者的混合。

But it's also, like I said, with units being up and we hadn't seen that for 2.5 years kind of thing so on.

但正如我所說，單位數量也在增加，我們已經有 2.5 年沒有看到這種情況了。

So that's encouraging.

所以這是令人鼓舞的。

And then like I mentioned, you know, listings are kind of flat in like core Q4 year over year, but they're up in the places that we're strong.

然後就像我提到的，你知道，第四季度的核心房源數量同比持平，但在我們優勢的地方卻有所上升。

As you know, we saw them up 5% in the $750 million range.

如您所知，我們看到它們在 7.5 億美元範圍內上漲了 5%。

We saw a 4% in the $1 million to $5 million range, and that was those numbers are better than the rest of our portfolio and kind of better than the market.

我們看到 4% 在 100 萬美元到 500 萬美元的範圍內，這些數字比我們投資組合的其他部分要好，而且比市場還要好。

And then we're also seeing about 40% of our listings sold either at or above list price in December.

我們也發現 12 月約 40% 的房源以等於或高於標價的價格出售。

You know, 34% of our listings went under contract in two weeks or less and last year was 33%.

您知道，我們 34% 的房源在兩週或更短的時間內簽訂了合同，去年為 33%。

And in previous years, it was like in the 20s kind of percentages kind of thing.

在前幾年，這就像二十世紀二十年代的百分比之類的事情。

And then cancellation rates for us dropped, you know, in Q4, you know, a couple of points versus 2022.

然後，我們的取消率在第四季度下降了，與 2022 年相比下降了幾個百分點。

And so, you know, so there's we're on a low base here, but there's some some green shoots here that it gave me the optimism to say when I said in the script, yes, that.

所以，你知道，我們的基礎較低，但這裡有一些萌芽，當我在劇本中說「是的，就是這樣」時，這讓我樂觀地說。

All sounds great.

一切聽起來都很棒。

I appreciate all that color.

我很欣賞所有這些顏色。

And then maybe for Charlotte here, I know it's early a lot going to obviously depend on the level of volumes and then also the working cap swings you guys are going to see from Cartus, but maybe if you could talk to your expectations for free cash flow conversion of EBITDA.

然後也許對於夏洛特這裡來說，我知道現在還很早，顯然取決於交易量水平，然後還有你們將從卡圖斯看到的工作上限波動，但也許如果你能談談你對自由現金的期望EBITDA 的流量轉換。

I know in the past you guys have kind of mentioned the 25% to 55% conversion range.

我知道你們過去曾提到 25% 到 55% 的轉換範圍。

Is that still a good kind of rule of thumb to consider?

這仍然是一個值得考慮的良好經驗法則嗎？

I think on a like-for-like basis, that's a good rule to consider.

我認為，在同類基礎上，這是一個值得考慮的好規則。

I mean, if you extract out some of the one-timers last year, we were at the high end of that last year, but I did point out we do have one-timers coming this year now and they're sizable.

我的意思是，如果你提取去年的一些一次性產品，我們就處於去年的高端，但我確實指出，今年我們確實有一次性產品，而且規模相當大。

So if yes, you have to think about it with or without the potential litigation settlements as well as what will or won't happen in this California legacy tax matter from literally 1999.

因此，如果是的話，您必須考慮是否有潛在的訴訟和解，以及加州 1999 年遺留的稅務問題會發生什麼或不會發生什麼。

So and if you ex if you extract those one-timers, the range definitely still holds.

所以，如果你提取那些一次性的，這個範圍肯定仍然成立。

And it's just the timing of those payments.

這只是這些付款的時間。

And if they will happen or not, it's very subjective.

如果它們會發生或不會發生，那是非常主觀的。

And so that's why I am I couldn't really give you a number, but we're trying to give you the piece parts.

這就是為什麼我無法真正給你一個數字，但我們正在努力為你提供零件。

So as things evolve and you can kind of do your own math, more of grocery.

因此，隨著事情的發展，你可以自己做數學計算，更多地去雜貨店。

Helpful review.

有用的評論。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes around from Ryan McKeveny with Zelman & Associates.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Ryan McKeveny。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So if I go to slide 5, in the deck.

所以如果我轉到投影片 5，在投影片中。

You've got kind of four pillars on leads, brokerage and franchise settlement and mortgage.

潛在客戶、經紀和特許經營結算以及抵押貸款有四大支柱。

Can you give us an update on the leads category?

您能為我們介紹一下潛在客戶類別的最新情況嗎？

And I guess just thoughts there on some ways that's expanding either through maybe more traditional referral approaches or maybe even some kind of online lead gen efforts there?

我想只是想透過一些更傳統的推薦方法或甚至是某種線上潛在客戶開發努力來擴展？

Yes.

是的。

So thanks for pointing that out.

感謝您指出這一點。

You know, it's funny one of the things that happens when the tough times the market's really tough like like it was in '22 and '23 is you actually get some return to basics, right?

你知道，當市場非常艱難的時候，就像 22 年和 23 年那樣，發生的事情之一很有趣，你實際上得到了一些回歸基本的東西，對嗎？

You know, taking on cost and being, you know, really sharp and reengineering your business, like Charles talked about a lot becomes really important.

你知道，承擔成本並變得非常敏銳並重新設計你的業務，就像查爾斯經常談論的那樣，變得非常重要。

Another thing that became really important is lead generation like the number one thing, our agents and franchisees want is high quality leads in a market when there's obviously much fewer transactions than there is in a normal kind of housing market.

另一件變得非常重要的事情是潛在客戶的產生，就像第一件事一樣，我們的代理商和特許經營商想要的是市場上的高品質潛在客戶，因為交易量明顯比正常的房地產市場少得多。

So we think kind of the high-quality lead ecosystem we have is one of our competitive advantages and that we were able to continuing to utilize it and so on, we focus more on on high quality referral leads.

因此，我們認為我們擁有的高品質潛在客戶生態系統是我們的競爭優勢之一，我們能夠繼續利用它等等，我們更專注於高品質的推薦潛在客戶。

Our relocation business has always been a source there, but recently a lot of our expansion has come from a couple of places.

我們的搬遷業務一直是那裡的一個來源，但最近我們的許多擴張都來自幾個地方。

One is on mortgage partners.

一是抵押合作夥伴。

We built a stable of mortgage partners over the last four or five years to bring kind of high quality real estate leads to us.

在過去的四、五年裡，我們建立了穩定的抵押貸款合作夥伴，為我們帶來了高品質的房地產線索。

And we've that's worked out well for them and for us in the ecosystem.

這對他們和我們生態系統來說都效果很好。

And so that's been one place that we've kind of expanded on.

這就是我們擴展的一個地方。

Second, we continue to invest in with ARARP., who just has such a track record of successful programs with their members across different financial and nonfinancial products.

其次，我們繼續投資 ARARP.，該公司在不同金融和非金融產品的會員專案方面擁有如此成功的記錄。

And we really like that we still play in certain things kind of from an online lead standpoint, but we're not as interested in kind of the low quality leads that convert at a 1% to 2% rate.

我們真的很喜歡從線上潛在客戶的角度來看，我們仍然在某些事情上發揮作用，但我們對以 1% 到 2% 的轉換率的低品質潛在客戶不那麼感興趣。

We're more interested in much higher quality, higher conversion leads that you get from affinity sources, relocation sources, et cetera.

我們更感興趣的是您從親和力來源、搬遷來源等獲得的更高品質、更高轉換率的潛在客戶。

And we are excited to keep expanding that a time we anytime we can.

我們很高興能夠隨時繼續擴大這一時間。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

And last one, just any updates on upward upward title on maybe just kind of uptake as far as interest from franchisees, et cetera.

最後一個，只是關於向上標題的任何更新，可能只是特許經營商的興趣等方面的一種吸收。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, we're really enjoying it.

是的，我們真的很享受。

You know, it's an important thing for those of you who don't know upper title.

你知道，對於那些不知道高級頭銜的人來說，這是一件很重要的事。

Well, it's a way basically for our franchisees to join a title joint venture with multiple franchisees and doesn't have to all be in the same brand to help our franchisees who don't have access to Title directly expand their revenue and expand their business in the real estate ecosystem and leverage the assets they have.

嗯，這基本上是我們的特許經營商加入與多個特許經營商的產權合資企業的一種方式，並且不必全部屬於同一品牌，以幫助我們沒有獲得產權的特許經營商直接擴大收入並擴大業務進入房地產生態系統並利用他們擁有的資產。

We have national title presence.

我們擁有全國冠軍。

We're good at running title companies.

我們擅長經營產權公司。

So that's what we bring to it and we bring them together.

這就是我們所帶來的，我們將它們聚集在一起。

We introduced in 2023.

我們於 2023 年推出。

We're now up to six states.

我們現在已經有六個州了。

We started obviously with one state and then with Florida and California was two states.

顯然，我們從一個州開始，然後佛羅裡達州和加利福尼亞州是兩個州。

Now we're up to six states, you know, Florida.

現在我們已經有六個州了，你知道，佛羅裡達州。

So cow were in Texas, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Utah.

所以牛在德州、賓州、科羅拉多州、猶他州。

We've got over 20 franchise partners in these things more to follow and we're getting, frankly, some of our big franchisees are joining as well as some of the more medium-sized ones who can't do title on their own.

在這些方面，我們有超過 20 個特許經營合作夥伴，坦白說，我們正在加入一些大型特許經營商，以及一些無法獨自獲得所有權的中型特許經營商。

So we like and it's the kind of thing.

所以我們喜歡而且就是這樣的事情。

Have, you know, when you strategically want to grow your very high margin franchise business, we're going to do the international and domestic expansion of brands like Sotheby's International Realty Corcoran, for example.

您知道，當您策略性地希望發展利潤率非常高的特許經營業務時，我們將進行蘇富比國際房地產科克倫 (Sotheby's International Realty Corcoran) 等品牌的國際和國內擴張。

But another way you're going to grow your franchise business is to help them just grow their revenue and also creates stickiness, right?

但發展特許經營業務的另一種方法是幫助他們增加收入並創造黏性，對吧？

We love the long-term kind of 10-year average contracts in franchise.

我們喜歡特許經營中平均 10 年的長期合約。

But this is another way to create a strong connection to our ecosystem for franchisees.

但這是為加盟商與我們的生態系統建立牢固聯繫的另一種方式。

And so, you know, we've gone from nothing to six states and we're excited to keep going.

所以，你知道，我們已經從一無所有到六個州，我們很高興能繼續前進。

I'm great.

我很好。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Thank you, Ryan.

謝謝你，瑞安。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

This will conclude today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you all for joining.

感謝大家的加入。

Us today.

今天的我們。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。