Anywhere Real Estate Inc (HOUS) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Anywhere Real Estate Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call via webcast. Today's call is being recorded, and a written transcript will be made available in the Investor Information section of the company's website tomorrow. A webcast replay will also be made available on the company's website. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Anywhere Senior Vice President, Alicia Swift. Please go ahead, Alicia.

早安，歡迎透過網路廣播參加 Anywhere Real Estate 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議正在錄音，明天將在公司網站的投資者資訊部分提供書面記錄。該公司網站上也將提供網路廣播重播。這次，我想將會議交給 Anywhere 資深副總裁 Alicia Swift。請繼續，艾麗西亞。

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call for Anywhere Real Estate Inc. On the call with me today are Anywhere CEO and President, Ryan Schneider; and Chief Financial Officer, Charlotte Simonelli.

謝謝你，克里斯。早安，歡迎參加 Anywhere Real Estate Inc. 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是 Anywhere 執行長兼總裁 Ryan Schneider；財務長夏洛特·西蒙內利。

As shown on Slide 3 of the presentation, the company will be making statements about its future results and other forward-looking statements during this call. These statements are based on the current expectations and the current economic environment.

如簡報投影片 3 所示，該公司將在本次電話會議期間發表有關其未來業績的聲明和其他前瞻性聲明。這些陳述是基於當前的預期和當前的經濟環境。

Forward-looking statements, estimates and projections are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive litigation, regulatory and other uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of management, including among others, industry and macroeconomic developments.

前瞻性陳述、估計和預測本質上受到重大經濟、競爭性訴訟、監管和其他不確定性和意外事件的影響，其中許多因素超出了管理層的控制範圍，其中包括行業和宏觀經濟發展。

Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Important assumptions and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are specified in our earnings release issued today as well as in our annual and quarterly SEC filings.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們今天發布的收益報告以及我們向 SEC 提交的年度和季度文件中詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的重要假設和其他因素。

For those who listen to the rebroadcast of this presentation, we remind you that the remarks made herein are as of today, October 24, and have not been updated subsequent to the initial earnings call. Now I will turn the call over to our CEO and President, Ryan Schneider.

對於那些收聽重播本簡報的人，我們提醒您，本文中的言論截至今天 10 月 24 日，在首次財報電話會議後尚未更新。現在我將把電話轉給我們的執行長兼總裁 Ryan Schneider。

Thank you, Alicia. Anywhere demonstrated our continued ability to lead through the top housing market, even if it worsened in the third quarter with higher mortgage rates. We pushed forward on our strategic agenda, expanding our high-margin franchise business, strengthening our balance sheet, completing additional cost reductions and removing litigation uncertainty, all setting us up for powerful momentum as the housing market improves.

謝謝你，艾莉西亞。任何地方都證明了我們持續引領頂級房地產市場的能力，即使第三季抵押貸款利率上升導致情況惡化。我們推進我們的策略議程，擴大我們的高利潤特許經營業務，加強我們的資產負債表，完成額外的成本削減並消除訴訟不確定性，所有這些都為我們隨著房地產市場的改善奠定了強大的動力。

During the third quarter, we delivered $1.6 billion of revenue and generated $107 million of operating EBITDA, which includes a small top-up to our legal reserves. We reduced our debt by nearly $300 million. We realized $60 million of cost savings in the quarter and completed the actions to deliver our $200 million cost target for the year, and we settled our seller antitrust class action litigation on a nationwide basis.

第三季度，我們實現了 16 億美元的收入，並產生了 1.07 億美元的營運 EBITDA，其中包括對我們法定儲備金的小額補充。我們減少了近 3 億美元的債務。我們在本季度實現了 6000 萬美元的成本節省，並完成了實現全年 2 億美元成本目標的行動，並在全國範圍內解決了賣方反壟斷集體訴訟。

Our quarterly transaction volume was down 13% year-over-year, which looks to be in line with or even a bit better than the overall markets performance. Volumes were softer than we expected in the back half of the quarter, primarily driven by higher mortgage rates that approached 8%. Home prices continue to be resilient with more than 80% of the country seeing price gains in our portfolio as supply limits remain the biggest issue in the market.

我們的季度交易量年減 13%，這看起來與整體市場表現一致甚至略好一些。本季後半段的成交量低於我們的預期，主要是由於抵押貸款利率上升至接近 8%。房價繼續保持彈性，由於供應限制仍然是市場上最大的問題，全國超過 80% 的地區在我們的投資組合中看到了價格上漲。

Now looking at our year-over-year volume results, we see variations across both geographies and market segments. Geographies like Florida and Colorado outperformed the market. The luxury segment, especially million-dollar-plus homes had the best performance in our portfolio with our Sotheby's International Realty brand being close to flat versus last year.

現在看看我們的年比銷售結果，我們發現地理和細分市場之間存在差異。佛羅裡達州和科羅拉多州等地區的表現優於市場。豪華住宅市場，尤其是價值百萬美元以上的住宅，在我們的投資組合中表現最佳，我們的蘇富比國際地產品牌幾乎與去年持平。

We remain very excited by our leading position in luxury. And as we've talked about many times, it is one of our most important strategic vectors. Now conversely, there are geographies out there like California and New York that are underperforming the market. And from a segment perspective, the lower end of the market has the biggest challenges from that combination of limited supply and higher mortgage rates.

我們對我們在奢侈品領域的領先地位仍然感到非常興奮。正如我們多次談到的，這是我們最重要的策略載體之一。相反，加州和紐約等一些地區的表現卻遜於市場。從細分市場的角度來看，低端市場面臨著供應有限和抵押貸款利率上升的最大挑戰。

Here at Anywhere real estate, we are clear-eyed about the challenges of the current housing market. And remember, we recognized the downturn early and have been very aggressive moving quickly on critical vectors like cost reduction and debt paydown. We are proactively executing on what we can control, laying the groundwork for substantial success, especially when the market rebounds.

在 Anywhere 房地產，我們對當前房地產市場的挑戰有著清醒的認識。請記住，我們很早就認識到了經濟衰退，並在降低成本和償還債務等關鍵領域迅速採取了非常積極的行動。我們正在積極執行我們可以控制的事情，為實質成功奠定基礎，尤其是在市場反彈時。

So first, we are excited by our progress simplifying, automating and streamlining our operations, and we have already completed the actions that will deliver our $200 million cost savings target, and we are cautiously optimistic that we may over-deliver on this number. We like the opportunities to further drive permanent efficiencies in our business and how those opportunities can enhance our margins in better housing markets.

首先，我們對營運的簡化、自動化和精簡所取得的進展感到興奮，並且我們已經完成了實現 2 億美元成本節約目標的行動，並且我們對可能超額實現這一數字持謹慎樂觀的態度。我們希望有機會進一步提高我們業務的永久效率，以及這些機會如何提高我們在更好的房屋市場中的利潤。

Second, we remain laser focused on debt reduction. I am so proud that we were able to reduce our debt by nearly $300 million in the quarter as we completed our bond exchange, repurchased bonds in the open market and repaid a portion of our revolver. This builds on the tremendous work we've done over the past years to reduce our debt by nearly $900 million. Continuing debt reduction is critical and remains a top capital allocation priority.

其次，我們仍然高度關注債務削減。我感到非常自豪的是，我們在本季度完成了債券交換、在公開市場回購債券並償還了部分左輪手槍，從而減少了近 3 億美元的債務。這是我們過去幾年為減少近 9 億美元債務所做的巨大工作的基礎。持續削減債務至關重要，並且仍然是資本配置的首要任務。

Third, we are differentiating ourselves and taking advantage of the better competitive environment. Our margin focus and commitment to profitability remains unchanged. We were excited to see our market share results in the quarter hold steady versus the latest over our NAR data, and we may actually have been a share gainer. We are recruiting agents at both better margins and with less cash out the door than we did in 2022, and we are achieving the same better results in our franchise sales and renewals.

第三，我們正在差異化自己並利用更好的競爭環境。我們對利潤的關注和對獲利能力的承諾保持不變。我們很高興看到本季的市佔率結果與 NAR 數據的最新數據相比保持穩定，而且我們實際上可能已經獲得了份額。與 2022 年相比，我們正在以更高的利潤率和更少的現金招募代理商，並且我們在特許經營銷售和續約方面也取得了同樣更好的成果。

Fourth, we are pleased to have reached a nationwide settlement in the seller antitrust class action litigation. While the settlement still needs court approvals, this enables us to move past the distraction, uncertainty and expense that comes with complex and protracted litigation.

第四，我們很高興在賣方反壟斷集體訴訟中達成全國性和解。雖然和解協議仍需要法院批准，但這使我們能夠擺脫複雜而曠日持久的訴訟所帶來的干擾、不確定性和費用。

Now looking forward, we're investing substantially in our future, enabled by our scale, profitability and free cash flow generations, unlike many of our competitors, and we like our strategic progress. We love the power of our franchise business. Even in this tough market, we see its high margin resiliency, its reliable profit generation and the benefits of its long-term contract structure. We continue to enhance our value proposition to attract new franchisees and strengthen our existing franchise portfolio.

現在展望未來，與我們的許多競爭對手不同，我們正在對我們的未來進行大量投資，這得益於我們的規模、盈利能力和自由現金流的產生，我們喜歡我們的戰略進展。我們熱愛特許經營業務的力量。即使在這個嚴峻的市場中，我們也看到了其高利潤彈性、可靠的利潤產生以及長期合約結構的好處。我們繼續增強我們的價值主張，以吸引新的特許經營商並加強我們現有的特許經營組合。

Anywhere is helping franchisees access new economics through our national scale title business with the launch of our upward title joint ventures. We already have 19 franchise partners across 3 states with multiple states to follow, and we're seeing strong demand, especially from some of our bigger franchisees, including luxury franchisees.

Anywhere 正在透過推出向上的產權合資企業，幫助特許經營商透過我們的全國規模產權業務獲得新經濟。我們已經在 3 個州擁有 19 個特許經營合作夥伴，後續還會有多個州跟進，我們看到了強勁的需求，特別是來自我們一些較大的特許經營商，包括豪華特許經營商。

Anywhere is using our technology to deliver more cost-effective solutions to franchisees. One example is our new listings direct technology, which integrates our franchisee with MLSs and reduces their need to purchase separate solutions and/or hire additional staff for MLS related back office work. We already have over 100 franchisees using or in the pipeline to use listings direct. And we continue to invest in our luxury franchise power.

Anywhere 正在使用我們的技術為加盟商提供更具成本效益的解決方案。一個例子是我們新的列表直接技術，該技術將我們的特許經營商與 MLS 集成，並減少他們購買單獨的解決方案和/或僱用額外員工進行 MLS 相關後台工作的需要。我們已經有超過 100 家特許經營商正在使用或正在準備使用直接清單。我們繼續投資於我們的奢侈品特許經營權。

For example, Cork has expanded or launched in 10 key markets this year across the Northeast, the West and internationally. And I'm excited to announce today its latest market expansion into Houston. Now second, we're integrating our support services across brokerage and title to digitally assist agents and consumers from contract to close. This is a win for our agents as we can provide them with high-value transaction coordination services as part of our value proposition, saving them the time and hassle of either managing this work themselves or paying hundreds of dollars per transaction for someone else to handle it, so they can focus on earning new business.

例如，科克今年已在東北部、西部和國際上的 10 個主要市場進行擴張或推出。我今天很高興地宣布其最新的市場擴張到休士頓。其次，我們正在整合經紀和產權領域的支援服務，以數位化方式協助代理商和消費者從合約簽訂到成交。這對我們的代理商來說是一個勝利，因為我們可以為他們提供高價值的交易協調服務，作為我們價值主張的一部分，從而節省他們自己管理這項工作或為其他人處理每筆交易支付數百美元的時間和麻煩。 ，這樣他們就可以專注於贏得新業務。

It's a win for consumers as we create a simpler transaction experience and a faster, more seamless closing process. And it's a win for Anywhere as this makes it easier for us to capture title, mortgage and insurance economics and allows us to aggressively simplify, standardize and automate our operations.

這對消費者來說是一場勝利，因為我們創造了更簡單的交易體驗和更快、更無縫的結算流程。這對 Anywhere 來說是一個勝利，因為這使我們更容易掌握所有權、抵押貸款和保險經濟學，並使我們能夠積極簡化、標準化和自動化我們的營運。

We're in the beginning stages of rolling this out, and we like our early results. We're live in 4 markets with several others to be added by year-end and a broader rollout in 2024. Agent satisfaction is 97%, and our Net Promoter Score here is 84%.

我們正處於推出此功能的開始階段，我們喜歡我們的早期結果。我們已在 4 個市場開展業務，其他幾個市場將在年底前添加，並在 2024 年進行更廣泛的推廣。代理商滿意度為 97%，我們的淨推薦值為 84%。

Finally, like I shared with you last quarter, I'm excited about how we're using our industry-leading data scale and generative AI to build powerful proof of concepts. For example, we have large language model proof of concepts that are improving a wide range of marketing activities around both copywriting and image generation. This area has tremendous potential given both our spend and our agents spend on marketing activities.

最後，就像我上季度與大家分享的那樣，我對我們如何使用業界領先的數據規模和生成式人工智慧來建立強大的概念證明感到興奮。例如，我們擁有大型語言模型概念證明，這些概念正在改善圍繞文案寫作和圖像生成的廣泛行銷活動。考慮到我們和我們的代理商在行銷活動上的支出，這一領域具有巨大的潛力。

And by their nature, our title and brokerage operations have significant documentation requirements. We have 2 pilots underway to test generative AI's ability to create, assemble and audit those documents. And given our significant spend in these areas, we're optimistic about its potential. And we see use cases from generative AI coming from everywhere.

就其性質而言，我們的產權和經紀業務具有重要的文件要求。我們正在進行 2 個試點，以測試生成式人工智慧建立、組裝和審核這些文件的能力。鑑於我們在這些領域投入了大量資金，我們對其潛力持樂觀態度。我們看到生成式人工智慧的用例來自世界各地。

We recently launched a Safeway for people in our ecosystem to access GPT 4 while protecting confidential information, and we're pleased with the number of people experimenting with these tools and their early innovation excitement. And really, the challenge from here is not just building more of these exciting use cases, but most importantly, scaling them up to deliver real value.

我們最近推出了 Safeway，供生態系統中的人們訪問 GPT 4，同時保護機密信息，我們對嘗試這些工具的人數以及他們早期創新的熱情到滿意。實際上，這裡的挑戰不僅僅是建立更多這些令人興奮的用例，最重要的是，擴大它們以提供真正的價值。

Now I'm going to come back later with a few closing thoughts. But for now, let me turn over to Charlotte to discuss our results in more detail.

現在我稍後會帶著一些結束的想法回來。但現在，讓我請夏洛特來更詳細地討論我們的結果。

Good morning, everyone. I am proud of our third quarter results delivery as we continue to generate meaningful operating EBITDA, execute cost savings, improve our capital structure and prudently manage our cash. We remain focused on what we can control and are well equipped to navigate this tough housing environment to drive differentiated results now and in the future.

大家，早安。我對第三季的業績交付感到自豪，因為我們繼續產生有意義的經營 EBITDA、節省成本、改善我們的資本結構並審慎管理我們的現金。我們仍然專注於我們可以控制的事情，並做好充分準備來應對這種艱難的住房環境，以便在現在和未來實現差異化的結果。

Now I will highlight our third quarter financial results. Q3 revenue was $1.6 billion, down 12% versus prior year and in line with our transaction volume decline, which we saw worsened in the latter half of the quarter due to rising mortgage rates. Q3 operating EBITDA was $107 million, down versus prior year due to lower transaction volume, slightly higher agent commission costs and timing on employee incentive accruals, offset in part by cost savings across the enterprise. We also had a slight top-up to our legal reserves in the quarter.

現在我將重點介紹我們第三季的財務表現。第三季營收為 16 億美元，比去年同期下降 12%，與我們的交易量下降一致，由於抵押貸款利率上升，我們看到本季後半段交易量進一步惡化。第三季營運 EBITDA 為 1.07 億美元，較去年同期下降，原因是交易量減少、代理佣金成本略高以及員工激勵應計時間安排，但整個企業的成本節省部分抵消了這一影響。本季我們的法定儲備金也略有增加。

Q3 free cash flow was $95 million, which was consistent with our free cash flow in Q3 of last year despite significantly lower market volumes. This strong free cash flow demonstrates our continued prudent cash management discipline, and we used our free cash flow in line with our capital allocation priorities to invest in the business and pay down debt.

第三季自由現金流為 9,500 萬美元，儘管市場交易量大幅下降，但與去年第三季的自由現金流一致。這種強勁的自由現金流顯示了我們持續審慎的現金管理紀律，我們根據資本配置優先順序利用自由現金流來投資業務和償還債務。

As Ryan mentioned, we entered into a settlement on our seller antitrust litigation...

正如瑞安所提到的，我們就賣方反壟斷訴訟達成了和解......

Where did I drop off?

我在哪裡下車？

I'll repeat myself and sorry, if there's our duplication. We reduced debt by $281 million in the third quarter through successful bond exchanges, open market repurchases and repaying a portion of our revolver balance.

如果有重複的話，我會重複一遍，抱歉。透過成功的債券交換、公開市場回購和償還部分左輪餘額，我們在第三季減少了 2.81 億美元的債務。

In August, we had full participation and successfully exchanged about $800 million of our 2029 and 2030 notes for about $640 million of new 7% second lien 2030 secured notes. This transaction reduced debt by $160 million, while incurring minimal incremental interest expense and retaining our flexibility and long-dated maturities.

8 月份，我們全面參與並成功地將約 8 億美元的 2029 年和 2030 年票據交換為約 6.4 億美元的新 7% 第二留置權 2030 年有擔保票據。這項交易減少了 1.6 億美元的債務，同時將增量利息支出降至最低，並保留了我們的靈活性和長期期限。

During the quarter, we also completed about $70 million in opportunistic open market debt repurchases across our 2029 and 2030 unsecured notes. The weighted average purchase price was about 71.5%, allowing us to capture $20 million of discounts.

本季度，我們也完成了 2029 年和 2030 年無擔保票據約 7,000 萬美元的機會性公開市場債務回購。加權平均購買價格約為 71.5%，使我們能夠獲得 2000 萬美元的折扣。

In addition, we used our free cash flow generation to further reduce our revolver borrowings by $50 million and end the quarter at $300 million. Since I joined the company in 2019, we have drastically improved our capital structure with longer-dated maturities, lower interest rates and more unsecured debt.

此外，我們利用自由現金流產生進一步減少了循環借款 5000 萬美元，季度末餘額為 3 億美元。自從我 2019 年加入公司以來，我們大大改善了我們的資本結構，期限更長，利率更低，無擔保債務更多。

We have reduced our net debt by almost $900 million with only about $200 million due before 2026. We remain focused on reducing debt and are always evaluating ways to achieve this goal. With our improved debt stack and ample liquidity, I feel good about our ability to weather the current market conditions while also investing to drive future results.

我們已將淨債務減少了近 9 億美元，其中 2026 年之前到期的債務僅為約 2 億美元。我們仍然專注於減少債務，並始終評估實現這一目標的方法。憑藉我們改善的債務堆疊和充足的流動性，我對我們抵禦當前市場狀況的能力感到滿意，同時也進行投資以推動未來的業績。

Now let me go into more detail on our business segment performance. Our Anywhere Brands business, which includes leads and relocation, generated $155 million in operating EBITDA, even in one of the worst housing markets we've seen in about 15 years. Operating EBITDA declined $47 million year-over-year primarily due to lower revenue related to transaction volume declines, partially offset by decreases in operating and marketing costs.

現在讓我更詳細地介紹我們的業務部門的業績。我們的 Anywhere Brands 業務（包括銷售線索和搬遷）產生了 1.55 億美元的經營 EBITDA，即使是在約 15 年來最糟糕的房地產市場之一。營運 EBITDA 年比下降 4700 萬美元，主要是由於與交易量下降相關的收入減少，但部分被營運和行銷成本的下降所抵消。

While down versus prior year, we love the recurring royalty stream and high margins of our franchise business and its relative stability over time. Our Q3 Anywhere Advisors operating EBITDA was negative $8 million, down $7 million versus prior year due to lower volume and slightly higher agent commission costs, also offset in part by lower operating and marketing expenses.

雖然與去年相比有所下降，但我們喜歡特許經營業務的經常性特許權使用費流和高利潤率及其隨著時間的推移的相對穩定性。我們第三季 Anywhere Advisors 的 EBITDA 為負 800 萬美元，比上年減少 700 萬美元，原因是銷量下降和代理佣金成本略高，但營運和行銷費用的降低也部分抵消了這一影響。

Our split rate in Q3 was 80.2%, which is up 55 basis points year-over-year and in line with where splits were in Q1 and Q2 of this year. And there continue to be parts of our business, especially in luxury, where our splits are actually lower year-over-year.

我們第三季的分拆率為 80.2%，較去年同期成長 55 個基點，與今年第一季和第二季的分拆率一致。我們的某些業務，尤其是奢侈品行業，我們的利潤率實際上逐年下降。

We continue to like the moderation we see in split, which is driven by lower volumes, more stable agent mix, better recruiting economics and other proactive actions we have taken. Anywhere Integrated Services was $2 million in operating EBITDA in Q3. Operating EBITDA declined $7 million year-over-year due to lower purchase and refinance volumes, which was partially offset by lower operating expenses due to cost savings initiatives and $4 million of improved GRA JV performance.

我們仍然喜歡我們在拆分中看到的溫和趨勢，這是由銷量減少、代理商組合更穩定、招聘經濟效益更好以及我們採取的其他積極行動推動的。 Anywhere Integrated Services 第三季的營運 EBITDA 為 200 萬美元。由於採購和再融資量減少，營運 EBITDA 年比下降 700 萬美元，但成本節約措施帶來的營運支出下降以及 GRA 合資企業業績改善 400 萬美元，部分抵消了這一影響。

We are relentlessly focused on changing how we operate to drive efficiencies in our business and set ourselves up for higher margins when the market returns. We delivered $60 million of cost savings in the quarter and north of $160 million year-to-date. We have already completed the actions that will deliver $200 million of realized cost savings this year and are cautiously optimistic that we'll deliver above that number.

我們堅持不懈地致力於改變我們的營運方式，以提高業務效率，並在市場回歸時獲得更高的利潤。本季我們節省了 6,000 萬美元的成本，今年迄今節省了 1.6 億美元。我們已經完成了今年將實現 2 億美元成本節約的行動，並且對實現這一數字持謹慎樂觀態度。

Looking at our year-to-date cost structure, our total operating, marketing and G&A expenses totaled $1.36 billion through Q3. This is down from $1.57 billion a year ago or a decline of approximately $215 million year-over-year. A clear indication of the realized savings we have achieved with our steadfast focus to help offset the weaker housing market, litigation expenses and inflation.

從我們今年迄今的成本結構來看，截至第三季度，我們的營運、行銷和一般行政費用總額總計 13.6 億美元。這比一年前的 15.7 億美元有所下降，年減了約 2.15 億美元。這清楚地表明我們堅定不移地致力於幫助抵消疲軟的房地產市場、訴訟費用和通貨膨脹所實現的節省。

And as you'll see on Slide 21 of our earnings presentation, we provided details on the segment makeup of our operating, marketing and G&A expenses for the last 12 months. Our operating expenses are primarily comprised of employees and offices. We have made a lot of progress in driving efficiency in these areas by simplifying, automating and streamlining our operations, but we still believe there are opportunities ahead of us across all of our expenses as we continue to reimagine how we operate. And I will be back in our year-end earnings release to provide more details on our savings expectations for 2024.

正如您將在我們的收益簡報的幻燈片 21 中看到的那樣，我們提供了過去 12 個月的營運、行銷和一般行政費用的細分市場構成的詳細資訊。我們的營運費用主要由員工和辦公室組成。透過簡化、自動化和精簡我們的運營，我們在提高這些領域的效率方面取得了很大進展，但我們仍然相信，隨著我們繼續重新構想我們的營運方式，我們的所有支出都面臨著機會。我將在年終收益發布中提供有關 2024 年儲蓄預期的更多詳細資訊。

Now on to our updated estimates for 2023. For full year 2023, we still expect transaction volumes to decline about 15% to 20% year-over-year. And with the weaker market and higher mortgage rates in the latter part of Q3, we now think this will end up towards the worst part of that range.

現在來談談我們對 2023 年的最新預測。對於 2023 年全年，我們仍然預計交易量將年減約 15% 至 20%。隨著第三季下半年市場疲軟和抵押貸款利率上升，我們現在認為這最終將走向該範圍內最糟糕的部分。

Second, based on the year-to-date split trends, we are now narrowing our range and expect full year split pressure of about 50 to 60 basis points. We really like our actions in this area and the better recruiting margins this year.

其次，根據今年迄今的分拆趨勢，我們現在正在縮小區間，預計全年分拆壓力約為 50 至 60 個基點。我們非常喜歡我們在這一領域的行動以及今年更好的招募利潤。

Estimates that remain the same as the last call. We still expect transaction volumes will improve sequentially year-over-year throughout the year. We expect our operating free cash flow to be modestly positive as favorable working capital, robust savings programs and our cash management discipline will counterbalance this tough year in housing. This excludes the impact of cash expenses from the debt exchange transactions and any other nonrecurring items.

估計值與上次通話相同。我們仍預計全年交易量將年比持續改善。我們預計我們的營運自由現金流將適度為正，因為有利的營運資本、強勁的儲蓄計劃和我們的現金管理紀律將抵消今年住房市場的困難。這不包括債務交換交易和任何其他非經常性項目的現金支出的影響。

Finally, we are on track to realize $200 million of P&L cost savings in 2023. And as I said earlier, we may outperform this number. While 2023 has been challenging and the outlook for 2024 remains uncertain, we have proven our ability to navigate this tough market. We generate consistent earnings and free cash flow to invest in growth and continue to be focused on reducing debt, which will position us for an even stronger future.

最後，我們預計在 2023 年實現 2 億美元的損益成本節省。正如我之前所說，我們的業績可能會超過這個數字。儘管 2023 年充滿挑戰，2024 年的前景仍然不確定，但我們已經證明了我們有能力應對這個艱難的市場。我們產生穩定的收益和自由現金流來投資成長，並繼續專注於減少債務，這將使我們擁有更美好的未來。

Let me now turn the call back to Ryan for some closing remarks.

現在讓我把電話轉回給瑞安，讓他發表一些結束語。

Thank you, Charlotte. I'm incredibly proud of how the Anywhere team has led through the tough housing environment. Even with the headwinds of higher mortgage rates this quarter, we delivered meaningful profitability and free cash flow, reduced our debt, over delivered on our cost savings agenda and mitigated risk by reaching a nationwide settlement in our antitrust litigation.

謝謝你，夏洛特。我對 Anywhere 團隊如何帶領他們度過艱難的住房環境感到無比自豪。儘管本季抵押貸款利率較高，但我們仍實現了可觀的獲利能力和自由現金流，減少了債務，超額完成了成本節約議程，並透過在反壟斷訴訟中達成全國性和解來降低風險。

And I'm excited by the strategic progress we made in the quarter, enhancing our financially powerful franchise business, integrating our brokerage and title operations with wins and benefits for agents, consumers and Anywhere, taking advantage of the improved competitive environment and creating some exciting generative AI use cases and focusing on how we scale them.

我對本季取得的策略進展感到興奮，增強了我們財務實力雄厚的特許經營業務，將我們的經紀和產權業務與代理商、消費者和任何地方的勝利和利益相結合，利用改善的競爭環境並創造了一些令人興奮的成果生成式人工智慧用例並關注我們如何擴展它們。

Now looking ahead, while the housing market outlook for 2024 remains uncertain, our proven results delivery, combined with our strategic progress, positions Anywhere real estate to drive differentiated results going forward, especially as the housing market strengthens. With that, we will take your questions.

現在展望未來，雖然2024 年的房地產市場前景仍不確定，但我們經過驗證的業績交付，加上我們的策略進展，使Anywhere 房地產能夠在未來推動差異化業績，尤其是在房地產市場走強的情況下。這樣，我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions). Our first question is from Soham Bansal with BTIG.

（操作員說明）。我們的第一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Soham Bansal。

Ryan, maybe just a big picture one to start. I think with all the headlines today, investors are really trying to understand, digest what all the headlines could mean for the industry over the next few years. So I would love for you to just maybe step back and give us your thoughts on what this could mean for industry structure, whether that's the number of agents in the business or market share for players like yourself versus others. However, you sort of want to frame it?

瑞安，也許只是一個大局的開始。我認為，面對今天的所有頭條新聞，投資者確實在試圖理解、消化所有頭條新聞在未來幾年對該行業可能意味著什麼。因此，我希望您能退後一步，告訴我們您對這對行業結構可能意味著什麼的看法，無論是業務中的代理商數量還是像您這樣的玩家相對於其他玩家的市場份額。不過，你想把它框起來嗎？

Well, look, the biggest headline and the biggest thing impacting our industry only is just where the housing market is out. I mean, we're going to trend into what, 4.1 million or 4.2 million unit transactions this year. That's either the lowest number in 15 years or 30 years depending on how you count departments and stuff like that in those kind of metrics.

好吧，看，最大的頭條新聞和對我們行業影響最大的事情就是房地產市場的退出。我的意思是，今年我們的交易量將達到 410 萬或 420 萬。這要么是 15 年來的最低數字，要么是 30 年來的最低數字，具體取決於您如何在此類指標中計算部門和類似內容。

But it's -- that's a rough year, right? And we saw a little worsening at the end of the third quarter as mortgage rates either approach or in some cases, hit 8%. And so that's a pretty -- that's the thing that's really the most challenging right now.

但這是——那是艱難的一年，對吧？我們看到第三季末情況略有惡化，抵押貸款利率接近或在某些情況下達到 8%。所以這確實是目前最具挑戰性的事情。

We like the fact that a lot of the actions we're still able to do, whether they're proactive investments or cost or debt things, if you remodel our company in a normal housing environment, like we're printing money, we're still printing money today, but we're bringing a lot of money in those kind of things. And then I still live in the world where if you think about the U.S. housing market over a 5- to 10-year period, it should be pretty strong. If you just think about the demographics and the supply and demand.

我們喜歡這樣一個事實，即我們仍然能夠採取很多行動，無論是主動投資還是成本或債務，如果你在正常的住房環境中改造我們的公司，就像我們印鈔票一樣，我們’今天我們仍在印鈔，但我們在這些事情上帶來了很多錢。然後我仍然生活在這樣的世界：如果你考慮美國房地產市場在 5 到 10 年內的表現，它應該會相當強勁。如果你只考慮人口統計和供需。

And one of our competitors has been out there saying 60 million units over 10 years, which averages about 6 million units. That wouldn't be unreasonable, given the demographics. So it's really the -- going through this valley and how deep and long it's going to be is the near-term issue. But you think about kind of like the economics and the power we've got with our size and scale and our profitability and our ability to keep investing through those sites.

我們的一位競爭對手曾表示，10 年內銷售量達到 6,000 萬台，平均約 600 萬台。考慮到人口統計數據，這並非不合理。所以，近期的問題是，穿越這個山谷，以及它會走多深、走多長。但你會想到我們的規模和規模、我們的獲利能力以及我們透過這些網站繼續投資的能力所帶來的經濟和實力。

And there is a competitive differentiator outlook here. I mean, look, I talk about the competitive market being different. I mean we're recruiting agents at better margins than we did last year. We have to use less cash out the door against the free cash flow step Charles was talking about because the market is different, and a lot of players in our industry aren't investing either because they're smaller or they don't have the profitability. And we think over the medium term, that's a good thing for us.

這裡有一個競爭優勢。我的意思是，看，我談到競爭市場是不同的。我的意思是，我們正在以比去年更好的利潤招募代理商。針對查爾斯所說的自由現金流步驟，我們必須使用更少的現金，因為市場不同，我們行業的許多參與者都沒有投資，因為他們規模較小，或者他們沒有足夠的資金。獲利能力。我們認為，從中期來看，這對我們來說是件好事。

And so we're excited that we can still deliver profitability and free cash flow and make progress on debt and keep getting more efficient as a company. And then what we always do is say, how will our company be in a normal housing market. And we really like the moves we're making if you just model that cost reduction in a normal market or you model even a little bit of what looks like maybe a little bit of market share gain this quarter in a normal market.

因此，我們很高興我們仍然能夠實現盈利和自由現金流，在債務方面取得進展，並不斷提高公司效率。然後我們總是說，我們的公司在正常的房地產市場中會如何。如果你只是對正常市場中的成本降低進行建模，或者對正常市場中本季看起來可能有一點市場份額增長的情況進行建模，我們真的很喜歡我們正在採取的舉措。

So that is the macro issue, obviously, it affects everybody. But in a level playing field, where it affects everybody, we think we're making some progress on a relative basis here that's going to really pay off in more normal markets.

這就是宏觀問題，顯然，它影響到每個人。但在一個影響每個人的公平競爭環境中，我們認為我們在相對基礎上取得了一些進展，這將在更正常的市場中真正獲得回報。

Okay. Great. Charlotte, on costs, wondering if you could give us some insight into how you're approaching your plans for next year. Is there any sort of framework that you can share just given volumes are probably going to be challenged next to you as well, given where rates are today currently, which will make the cost set an important lever for next year?

好的。偉大的。夏洛特，關於成本，想知道您是否能給我們一些關於您如何實現明年計劃的見解。考慮到目前的費率，您是否可以分享任何類型的框架，鑑於目前的利率，您身邊可能也會面臨挑戰，這將使成本成為明年的重要槓桿？

Yes. So like I said on the call, I'll be out next quarter with more specificity on the numbers we're targeting. But basically, we -- it's not locked on us where the housing market is today. And so I'm very optimistic that we'll be able to have some meaningful number for next year. It's 2 years in a row of this type of a market makes it even more important for us to focus on this. And so you can definitely expect that we are laser focused on it right now, and we'll have something meaningful to share with you next quarter.

是的。正如我在電話會議上所說，我將在下個季度詳細介紹我們的目標數字。但基本上，我們——它並沒有鎖定我們今天的房地產市場。因此，我非常樂觀地認為明年我們將能夠獲得一些有意義的數字。連續兩年出現這樣的市場，讓我們更關注這一點。因此，您絕對可以期待我們現在全力關注它，並且我們將在下個季度與您分享一些有意義的內容。

Economic continued potential on the cost side. I mean I mentioned in my script even a couple of the AI things that I talked about, we're doing a generative AI. If we can scale them up, a lot of the benefits is on the cost side. And so I don't think we're done on that journey. I think Charlie has been a great captain of steering our ship there, and we'll still have more for you next work.

成本方面的經濟持續潛力。我的意思是，我在腳本中提到了一些我談到的人工智慧的事情，我們正在做一個生成式人工智慧。如果我們能夠擴大規模，許多好處都反映在成本方面。所以我認為我們的旅程還沒結束。我認為查理是一位偉大的船長，他帶領我們的船到達那裡，我們也會為您提供更多的下一份工作。

The next question is from Matthew Bouley with Barclays Capital.

下一個問題來自巴克萊資本的 Matthew Bouley。

This is Anika Dholakia on for Matt. I'm wondering if you can elaborate on the practice changes that you outlined from the settlement. And overall, how you think this could affect commission rates for agents?

我是阿尼卡·多拉基亞 (Anika Dholakia) 替馬特 (Matt) 發言。我想知道您是否可以詳細說明您在和解協議中概述的做法變更。總的來說，您認為這會如何影響代理商的佣金率？

Yes. So look, these are all out of there in the public. We agreed to about 8 practice changes. Some of them are things that NAR and the DOJ agreed on 3 to 4 years ago that we supported them, and we actually, in some cases, went ahead and already implemented them. In others, there are places where we had already been on the record, and we wanted to -- we thought that was a good change for the industry. And so for us, they all lean into kind of the power of transparency and our belief that both buyer and seller agents add a lot of value.

是的。所以看，這些都是公開的。我們同意進行大約 8 項實踐變更。其中一些是 NAR 和 DOJ 在 3 到 4 年前商定的事情，我們支持它們，實際上，在某些情況下，我們繼續實施並已經實施了它們。在其他方面，有些地方我們已經記錄在案，我們希望——我們認為這對產業來說是一個很好的改變。因此，對我們來說，他們都依賴透明度的力量，我們相信買方和賣方代理都可以增加很多價值。

I'm not going to speculate too much on kind of what's going to happen with the industry, but there are a lot of places in the U.S. that have moved away from some of the mandatory rules and move more toward this transparency of the closure that we agreed to. And we think those markets operate well. And we're going to be here supporting our buyer and our seller agents through the future here.

我不會過多猜測該行業將會發生什麼，但美國有很多地方已經放棄了一些強制性規則，並更加傾向於這種關閉的透明度，我們同意了。我們認為這些市場運作良好。我們將在這裡為我們的買家和賣家代理商提供未來的支援。

Great. And I guess for my second question, are you starting to see any more attrition amongst real estate agents? Are you seeing them leave the industry given the difficult macro backdrop? And what do you think this means overall for the competitive environment for the top-producing agents?

偉大的。我想對於我的第二個問題，您是否開始看到房地產經紀人之間出現更多的人員流失？鑑於困難的宏觀背景，您是否會看到他們離開該行業？您認為這對頂級代理商的競爭環境整體意味著什麼？

Yes. So look, your great question, a couple of things. So absolutely. We're definitely seeing agents leave the industry. It's typically the low or no productivity agents. And when you even see our agent count, you'll see it actually go down a bit, in part because there are some of those people leaving the industry. And sometimes, we're kind of helping show them out the door a little bit because they're not free to support. And if they're not really going to be producers, then it's probably not good for them or for us.

是的。所以，聽著，你的問題很好，有幾件事。絕對是如此。我們肯定會看到代理商離開這個行業。通常是生產力低或無生產力的代理。當您看到我們的代理商數量時，您會發現它實際上有所下降，部分原因是其中一些原因是其中一些離開了該行業。有時，我們會稍微幫助他們走出家門，因為他們無法自由地提供支持。如果他們不真正成為製作人，那麼這可能對他們或我們都沒有好處。

And look, this is not a new phenomenon. When COVID hit, a lot of agents left in Q2 of 2020 because Q2 is also a time when a lot of people had to pay their state real estate fees and things like that. And so the trend of the top 20% of agents doing 80% or 90% of the business is not a new one, but it is continuing.

看，這不是一個新現象。當新冠疫情來襲時，許多經紀人在 2020 年第二季離開，因為第二季也是許多人必須支付州房地產費用等費用的時期。因此，排名前 20% 的代理商承擔 80% 或 90% 業務的趨勢並不是什麼新鮮事，但它仍在持續。

And so we always look at things on kind of who's producing and our retention on our producing agents is phenomenally good. We're able to do the better recruiting that I talked about of producing agents that we're not talking about low or no producers in those when we talk about those kind of numbers. But you are right that there's definitely some movement out of the industry, but it's really not concentrated in people doing a lot of business. And that's not a bad thing. But it's cyclical, right? The market gets hot, I think agent count will go back up as more people enter the industry. And we aptly take a lot of new agents and make them really successful and partner with them, and we are for that. But we are in that shrinkage time as an industry right now.

因此，我們總是根據製作人的類型來看待事情，我們對製作代理商的保留非常好。我們能夠更好地招募我談到的生產代理商，當我們談論這些數字時，我們並不是在談論那些生產人數少或沒有生產商的情況。但你是對的，這個行業肯定有一些流動，但它實際上並不集中在從事大量業務的人身上。這並不是一件壞事。但它是周期性的，對嗎？市場變得火爆，我認為隨著更多人進入這個行業，代理商數量將會回升。我們恰當地採用了許多新的代理商，讓他們真正成功並與他們合作，我們就是為了這個。但作為一個產業，我們現在正處於萎縮時期。

The next question is from Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Anthony Paolone。

I guess first one, just on splits. How much of just the moderating growth in the splits is from, I guess, mix? I'm trying to just understand that if like California rebounds and you get back to a more normalized distribution of activity around the country, like what the splits look like.

我想第一個，只是分裂。我猜，分裂的放緩增長有多少是來自混合？我試圖了解，如果像加州那樣反彈，並且全國各地的活動分佈恢復到更正常化的狀態，就像分裂的情況一樣。

Yes. So the geography doesn't normally play a big role. It actually did play a little bit of a role in the quarter. It was less than 10 basis points. So I wouldn't say it's the most material impact. There was another impact I didn't call out from some timing on our new development business as well. So if you kind of back out the noncore split movements, it would have been sort of less than half or about half of what I reported of an increase.

是的。因此，地理位置通常不會發揮很大的作用。它實際上在本季度確實發揮了一點作用。低於10個基點。所以我不會說這是最實質的影響。我還沒有指出對我們新開發業務的另一個影響。因此，如果你取消非核心分裂運動，那麼它會比我報告的增長量的一半或大約一半還要少。

So geography was an impact this quarter. It doesn't -- I don't normally call it out because it isn't normally it was, but I would say it was still relatively minor.

因此，地理因素對本季產生了影響。事實並非如此——我通常不會指出這一點，因為它通常不是這樣的，但我想說它仍然相對較小。

Okay. But your sense is that like on a go-forward basis, if a lot of these bigger regions kind of normalized, we shouldn't expect, like, I don't know, 100, 200 basis point pickup or....

好的。但你的感覺是，就像在前進的基礎上一樣，如果許多更大的地區都正常化，我們不應該期望，比如，我不知道，100、200 個基點回升或…

No.

不。

something like it's not like that?

好像不是那樣的？

Keep in mind, like right now, we have counterbalancing things between California and New York. Florida remains one of the stronger markets, and Florida is also one of the higher split markets, too. So it's interesting how California and New York tend to counterbalance each other for the long haul in the most part.

請記住，就像現在一樣，我們在加利福尼亞州和紐約州之間進行平衡。佛羅裡達州仍是實力較強的市場之一，也是分裂程度較高的市場之一。因此，有趣的是，從長遠來看，加州和紐約在大多數情況下往往會相互制衡。

Okay. Got it. And then Ryan, you talked about just demographics and positive things looking forward. I mean, what's your sense for what the -- for lack of a better term, a clearing rate might be for interest rates? Or at what point are these higher interest rates socialized enough that you start to see people just act? I mean is there a number in your mind or some level that you think would prompt like a balance in activity?

好的。知道了。然後瑞安，你談到了人口統計和未來積極的事情。我的意思是，由於缺乏更好的術語，您對利率的清算利率有何看法？或者什麼時候這些更高的利率已經足夠社會化，以至於你開始看到人們採取行動？我的意思是，您心中是否有一個數字或您認為會促使活動平衡的某個水平？

Yes, there is, and you may not like it, but I'll just give it to you because I just tell you the truth. Look, I think it's 5.5% to 6% for mortgage rates. And we're a bit -- the evidence for me there is all the homebuilders who moved a lot of product, but they did it by buying home rates down to 5.5% basically. I mean I talked to a homebuilder as CEO in the past in a couple of months. And they'll buy down to 49.9% for homes to be delivered in the first 60 days and then they buy down to 5.5% for other stuff. Now that's changed recently, right?

是的，有，你可能不喜歡它，但我會把它給你，因為我只是告訴你真相。我認為抵押貸款利率是 5.5% 到 6%。我們有一點——對我來說，證據是所有房屋建築商都轉移了大量產品，但他們是透過購買房屋價格基本上降至 5.5% 來做到這一點的。我的意思是，我過去幾個月與一位擔任執行長的房屋建築商進行了交談。他們會以 49.9% 的價格購買將在前 60 天內交付的房屋，然後以 5.5% 的價格購買其他物品。現在情況最近發生了變化，對嗎？

In the last month or so, now they've been hit because at 8% mortgage rates, I think their ability to buy down that far is crimped. I can't really speak for them, but that's what I see from the outside. But there'll be a little bit of relief as some of the people who have our mortgage just kind of roll off over time, but I think that's going to be pretty slow in a world where 80% of Americans have a rate below 5%.

在過去一個月左右的時間裡，現在他們受到了打擊，因為抵押貸款利率為 8%，我認為他們購買這麼高的房子的能力受到了限制。我不能真正代表他們說話，但這就是我從外面看到的。但隨著時間的推移，一些擁有我們抵押貸款的人會逐漸減少，這會帶來一些緩解，但我認為，在80% 的美國人的利率低於5% 的世界裡，這將是相當緩慢的。

But I think if you look at consumer survey data, I've seen some good data from John Burns consulting on that and then you look at what homebuilders are doing, between 5.5% and 6%, people are willing to give up the mortgage they've got for a better/different house. It does move product with new homes. And so that's the level that I think kind of unlocks the inventory problem. Because again, prices are up in 80% of our portfolio. I mean, even with all the affordability issues of high mortgage rates, the demand is still greater than supply. If we had more homes, we could sell them more than 50% of our homes in like Global banker are selling within 14 days. I mean -- so I think it's going to take a mortgage rate in that ZIP code to unlock things.

但我認為，如果你看一下消費者調查數據，我看到約翰伯恩斯諮詢公司提供的一些很好的數據，然後你看看房屋建築商正在做什麼，在5.5% 到6% 之間，人們願意放棄他們的抵押貸款已經有了一個更好/不同的房子。它確實將產品轉移到新家。我認為這個水準可以解決庫存問題。因為我們的投資組合中 80% 的價格都上漲了。我的意思是，即使存在高抵押貸款利率帶來的所有負擔能力問題，需求仍然大於供給。如果我們有更多的房屋，我們可以在 14 天內出售超過 50% 的房屋，就像 Global Banker 一樣。我的意思是——所以我認為需要按該郵政編碼的抵押貸款利率才能解鎖東西。

Okay. And then just maybe last one for me. There's a lot of just chatter and articles about DOJ risk in the industry, maybe for nonlawyers or nonexperts on how that works? Like what can you tell us about that risk or where that might be? Just anything to level set there would be great.

好的。然後對我來說可能是最後一個。業界有很多關於 DOJ 風險的閒聊和文章，也許是針對非律師或非專家的，了解其運作方式？您能告訴我們有關該風險的資訊嗎？或者風險可能在哪裡？只要能在那裡設置任何水平就太好了。

Look, I mean, we watch all the risks, but you're going to have to go ask the DOJ about that. I don't -- I haven't spoken to the DOJ, and they've got their thing going with NAR, but that's for those guys to talk about.

聽著，我的意思是，我們會關注所有風險，但你必須去詢問司法部。我沒有——我還沒有和 DOJ 談過，他們已經和 NAR 搞好了事情，但那是那些人可以談論的。

The next question is from John Campbell with Stephens.

下一個問題是約翰·坎貝爾和史蒂芬斯提出的。

With the settlement now in the works, Ryan, I'm hoping or maybe Charlotte, I'm hoping you guys could provide the all-in legal spend kind of tied to these suits maybe since inception or maybe just kind of what you spent year-to-date? Just trying to get a sense for what that profit lift might look like from the lower legal spend?

隨著和解正在進行中，瑞安，我希望或夏洛特，我希望你們能夠提供與這些訴訟相關的全部法律支出，也許是從一開始，或者也許只是您一年花的錢-迄今為止？只是想了解一下合法支出減少帶來的利潤提升會是什麼樣子？

Yes, we're not going to disclose that. But I can tell you, there will be a little bit of a tailwind next year. I wouldn't -- there was obviously -- we started taking these expenses in Q3 of last year. So it's kind of like phased out over 2 years. So you're not going to see like a onetime huge benefit because part of it hits this year and part of it will hit next year. We're just really pleased that we're done with it, and we can experience the tailwind from having lower litigation expenses. So...

是的，我們不會透露這一點。但我可以告訴你，明年將會有一些順風。我不會——顯然是——我們從去年第三季開始計入這些費用。所以這有點像是兩年內逐步淘汰。因此，您不會看到一次性的巨大收益，因為其中一部分將在今年實現，一部分將在明年實現。我們真的很高興我們已經完成了這件事，我們可以體驗到訴訟費用降低的好處。所以...

And John, this is one of the factors that went into the settlement decision was just the ongoing expense of this kind of complex and prolonged litigation. And so we'll have the tailwind that Charlotte talked about. But I think ever getting into the nitty-gritty of how much we're spending on a specific matter and things like that is a bridge too far.

約翰，這是達成和解決定的因素之一，就是這種複雜而長期的訴訟的持續費用。這樣我們就會得到夏洛特所說的順風車。但我認為，深入了解我們在特定問題和類似事情上花費了多少資金的實質是一座遙遠的橋樑。

But we've tried to be transparent about when we're taking big reserves, which we did like 3 quarters in a row, it will top up this quarter. And then that will roll off on a last 12 months basis in terms of our reporting that you see. But we're going to lower litigation expenses at depend. And that's what we're going to have subject to these things all being approved.

但我們試圖在何時提取大量儲備方面保持透明，我們連續三個季度都這樣做，本季將補充。然後，根據您看到的我們的報告，這將在過去 12 個月的基礎上滾動。但我們將根據情況降低訴訟費用。這就是我們將在所有這些事情都獲得批准的情況下要做的。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just to clarify, you guys were not adding that back to your adjusted EBITDA?

好的。這很有幫助。然後澄清一下，你們沒有將其添加回調整後的 EBITDA 中嗎？

No, we did not exclude it.

不，我們並沒有排除它。

No. I mean look, it's funny you say that because there are people who say, "Hey, you should have always added back all this legal stuff to your EBITDA. But that's historically not been our approach. So we didn't change it, but we have tried to be clear that the numbers we report would have been bigger, obviously, if we had not done some of the legal reserving and everything else. But it served us well. And we think we've got a good -- the fact that our business has more octane than some of the numbers we printed is...

不，我的意思是，你這麼說很有趣，因為有人說，「嘿，你應該總是將所有這些合法的東西加回你的EBITDA 中。但從歷史上看，這不是我們的做法。所以我們沒有改變它，但我們試圖明確表示，如果我們沒有進行一些法定保留和其他所有工作，我們報告的數字顯然會更大。但這對我們很有幫助。而且我們認為我們已經得到了很好的- - 事實上，我們的業務比我們印製的一些數字具有更高的辛烷值...

Including the quarter...

包括季度...

Including this quarter is a good thing.

包括本季是一件好事。

Absolutely. Last question on the price side of things. I mean that was a lot higher than we expected this quarter. I think also probably a lot of investors were expecting as well. Ryan, you mentioned that 80% of the markets are experiencing price gain. So it does seem like that's fairly broad-based. I'm curious about your take on home price gains as we approach the new year. And if you feel like there's enough momentum or if that can continue in the next year. It just feels like there's a lot of moving parts there, where if we get the inventory, maybe the price cools off. So I know there's a lot of moving parts, but just your best guess.

絕對地。最後一個問題是關於價格方面的。我的意思是，這比我們本季的預期要高得多。我想很多投資人也可能對此有所期待。 Ryan，您提到 80% 的市場正在經歷價格上漲。所以看起來這確實是基礎相當廣泛的。我很好奇您對新年即將到來之際房價上漲的看法。如果你覺得有足夠的動力，或者這種勢頭是否可以在明年繼續下去。只是感覺那裡有很多活動部件，如果我們獲得庫存，也許價格會降溫。所以我知道有很多變化的部分，但這只是你最好的猜測。

Yes. Look, I mean we tend to not model a lot of price gains, right? Like because we'd rather have the gains on the unit side. So we're actually rooting for what you just said, which is, let's have the unit world unlock, let's get some more transactions there. And then we're happy with whatever happens kind of on the price side. So we're -- the price numbers, I think, in the quarter probably were a little bit higher than we thought they would be. But when you put the even higher mortgage rates and then what that does on the supply side and then the fact that there is still demand out there, we're not that surprised by it, right? But there's a few markets where I did drop but not some of the bigger markets.

是的。看，我的意思是我們往往不會對大量價格上漲進行建模，對嗎？就像因為我們寧願在單位方面獲得利益。所以我們實際上支持你剛才所說的，那就是，讓我們解鎖單位世界，讓我們在那裡進行更多交易。然後我們對價格方面發生的一切感到滿意。所以我認為，本季的價格數字可能比我們想像的要高一些。但是，當你考慮更高的抵押貸款利率，然後考慮這對供給側的影響以及仍然存在需求的事實時，我們對此並不感到驚訝，對嗎？但我確實放棄了一些市場，但沒有放棄一些較大的市場。

But when you see markets up 2% or 3% in price or other 5%, 6%, 10%, it's really, I think, the factor this rate supply-demand thing. And so we're going to -- when we model next year, and we'll probably talk to you about this on the next call, like Charlotte talked about on the cost side, I think you'll see us like not -- we're not -- we don't want to bet on price, right? And we also think the market is healthier with as many units as possible no matter what happens to price. So that's what we'll be rooting for, but we're going to use all this trend data to be clear eyed about it. But that's just a little more color on kind of how we think about it.

但當你看到市場價格上漲 2% 或 3% 或其他 5%、6%、10% 時，我認為這確實是供需關係的因素。因此，當我們明年進行建模時，我們可能會在下次電話會議上與您討論這個問題，就像夏洛特在成本方面談到的那樣，我想您會看到我們不喜歡-我們不想在價格上下注，對吧？我們也認為，無論價格發生什麼變化，市場都會變得更加健康，擁有盡可能多的單位。這就是我們所支持的，但我們將使用所有這些趨勢數據來清楚地了解這一點。但這只是我們的想法多了一點色彩。

The next question is from Tommy McJoynt with KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Tommy McJoynt。

The first one is, could you help me frame what the average commission split of maybe, say, the top 20% versus the bottom 50% of agencies? Just really kind of thinking of how big that difference is. Basically, I just want to know if -- is it a small difference where the top agents get maybe 85% on average and the bottom get 75%? Or is the gap a lot lighter than that?

第一個是，你能幫我確定一下，比如說，前 20% 的代理商與後 50% 的代理商的平均佣金分配是多少嗎？只是想一下這種差異有多大。基本上，我只是想知道——頂級代理商平均獲得 85%，而墊底代理商平均獲得 75%，這是否存在微小差異？或者差距比這小得多？

I mean it's probably more in your first kind of bucket to be honest. I mean it's real -- I mean we have 50,000 agents in our own brokerage, right? And it's all -- the range can be quite wide and depending on how many years we contract for and all these other kind of things. But assuming that the top agents have above our average split and assuming that the second and third quartile ones have the low, it's a pretty good assumption. And it's kind of how the ecosystem works. And I think most of our competitors would probably have something similar with everybody being at different price points, obviously.

我的意思是，老實說，它可能更適合您的第一種情況。我的意思是這是真的——我的意思是我們自己的經紀公司有 50,000 名代理人，對嗎？就是這樣——範圍可能相當廣泛，具體取決於我們簽訂合約的年限以及所有其他類型的事情。但假設頂級代理商的分配高於我們的平均分配，並假設第二和第三四分位數的分配較低，這是一個非常好的假設。這就是生態系統的運作方式。我認為我們的大多數競爭對手可能都會有類似的東西，顯然每個人都處於不同的價格點。

Okay. That makes sense. And then my second question, given you're presumably pretty constant in communication with your agents and franchisees with boots on the ground, given the ongoing class action litigation, seemingly getting a bit more mainstream news attention. Have you heard anecdotally from those agents that more buyers and even perhaps more sellers are starting to ask more about commissions, perhaps negotiate a bit more or maybe seek out more rebates, anything like that?

好的。這就說得通了。然後是我的第二個問題，考慮到您可能一直與您的代理商和特許經營商保持著密切的溝通，考慮到正在進行的集體訴訟，似乎得到了更多主流新聞的關注。您是否從那些代理商那裡聽說過，越來越多的買家，甚至更多的賣家開始詢問更多有關佣金的問題，可能會進行更多的談判，或者可能會尋求更多的回扣，諸如此類？

Well, a couple of things. So I was down at Jen Blue in Atlanta. We had thousands of agents and franchisees there for the Cold lead banker brand awesome week really at a good time. And I was just -- I got tons of face time with agents and franchisees.

嗯，有幾件事。所以我去了亞特蘭大的 Jen Blue。我們有數以千計的代理商和特許經營商在那裡度過了冷領導銀行家品牌精彩的一周，真的是在一個很好的時間。我只是——我與代理商和特許經營商有大量的會面時間。

I guess I would say a couple of things. One is these agents are in the middle of commission negotiations with their sellers all the time, right? And like so that's not a new thing. And we were -- I was meeting with an agent from Florida. She and I were talking about just some of the negotiating tactics that some of the competitors down there were using versus her approach and all those kind of things and how you think about price and value in these discussions kind of thing.

我想我會說幾件事。一是這些代理商一直在與賣家進行佣金談判，對吧？就像這樣，這不是什麼新鮮事。我們—我正在會見一位來自佛羅裡達州的特工。她和我談論的只是一些競爭對手使用的一些談判策略以及她的方法和所有這些事情，以及您在這些討論中如何看待價格和價值之類的事情。

And so like negotiating with sellers is not a new thing, and there's a lot of that going on out there. So that -- not a lot of question about that. No one is kind of telling me that they're hearing something different from buyers or something like that. And so I think, again, I think the class action stuff is more mainstream in the real estate press than the general press. But we like the value both the seller and buyer agents provide, and we think that we're lucky to have settled the litigation.

因此，與賣家談判並不是什麼新鮮事，而且有很多這樣的事情發生。所以，對此沒有太多疑問。沒有人告訴我他們從買家那裡聽到了不同的東西或類似的東西。因此，我再次認為，集體訴訟的內容在房地產媒體中比一般媒體更主流。但我們喜歡賣方和買方代理提供的價值，我們認為我們很幸運能夠解決訴訟。

And remember, we settled the litigation and it covers our franchisees and it covers our agents. And so that was actually the starting point of a lot of the conversation, which is kind of thank you and remind me how uncovered and why kind of thing. But the discussion about customers' negotiation was not any different than the Sotheby's International Realty conference I went to in April kind of , right?

請記住，我們解決了訴訟，它涵蓋了我們的特許經營商和我們的代理商。所以這實際上是很多談話的起點，這是一種感謝，並提醒我如何發現以及為什麼會發生這樣的事情。但關於客戶談判的討論和我四月參加的蘇富比國際房地產會議沒有什麼不同，對吧？

So because that's a big part of the ecosystem already today. And I think some people don't realize that as much as they should out there in the world.

因為這已經是當今生態系的重要組成部分。我認為有些人並沒有充分認識到這一點。

Got it. And then just my last question is looking at over the next couple of quarters, given the existing cash balance, typically the fourth quarter and the first quarter are slower seasonal quarters, and we're obviously facing a low home sale market already. Can you talk about the kind of trajectory of your kind of cash balance and how you guys might need to kind of tap into your available revolver credit facility to the extent that's needed.

知道了。然後，我的最後一個問題是考慮到未來幾個季度，考慮到現有的現金餘額，通常第四季度和第一季是較慢的季節性季度，而且我們顯然已經面臨著較低的房屋銷售市場。您能否談談您的現金餘額的軌跡以及您可能需要如何在需要的範圍內利用可用的循環信貸設施。

Yes. So the cash balance doesn't really change dramatically quarter-over-quarter. We manage, especially when we're borrowing, we managed to hold the amount of cash that we need to hold and keep the revolver as low as possible. In the fourth quarter, we tend to still generate positive free cash flow. It's really the first quarter where the seasonality and the timing of our expenses hits us. So we normally borrow in the first quarter in a good housing market. So you can anticipate we'll probably be borrowing in this housing market in the first quarter as well, but that's very common.

是的。因此，現金餘額逐季度並沒有真正發生巨大變化。我們管理，特別是當我們借款時，我們設法持有我們需要持有的現金數量，並將左輪手槍保持在盡可能低的水平。在第四季度，我們仍傾向於產生正的自由現金流。這確實是第一季度，我們的支出受到季節性和時間安排的影響。因此，我們通常會在房地產市場良好的第一季借款。因此，您可以預期我們可能也會在第一季在這個房地產市場上借款，但這很常見。

So I'm excited that we were able to pay down $50 million of the revolver in the quarter despite and on top of doing open market repurchases and having expenses out the door for some of the debt exchanges. I'm very proud of our cash flow delivery this year. We have -- we are being ruthlessly focused on it and making very specific choices with how we deploy our cash, and we have tons of liquidity. So proud of the steps we took on our debt over the past 5 years, and this is not the thing that keeps me up at night for sure.

因此，我很高興我們能夠在本季度償還 5000 萬美元的左輪手槍，儘管進行了公開市場回購並支付了一些債務交換的費用。我對今年我們的現金流交付感到非常自豪。我們正在無情地關注它，並對如何部署現金做出非常具體的選擇，而且我們擁有大量的流動性。我們對過去 5 年來我們為償還債務所採取的措施感到非常自豪，但這肯定不是讓我徹夜難眠的原因。

Our final question today will be from Ryan McKeveny with Zelman & Associates.

我們今天的最後一個問題將由 Zelman & Associates 的 Ryan McKeveny 提出。

Charlotte, when the audio cut out earlier, you had just started mentioning the litigation. So maybe you've already touched on what was expected to be said in the Q&A, but I don't know, it might be worth reading any of those comments from the prepared remarks, you kind of came back at the cost talking about the cost, but it was right around that litigation comment that the audio cut out maybe start there. Sure.

夏洛特，當音頻早些時候中斷時，你剛開始提到訴訟。所以也許你已經觸及了問答中預期要說的內容，但我不知道，可能值得閱讀準備好的評論中的任何評論，你有點以談論成本，但正是圍繞該訴訟評論，音頻被切斷可能從那裡開始。當然。

Yes. The exact comment I made was we entered into a settlement on our seller antitrust litigation on a nationwide basis for $83.5 million, of which we expect to pay $10 million this year, the remainder in 2024. That's the comment.

是的。我的確切評論是，我們在全國範圍內就賣方反壟斷訴訟達成了 8350 萬美元的和解協議，預計今年支付 1000 萬美元，餘下的金額將在 2024 年支付。這就是評論。

Okay. Perfect. And then second, Ryan. So I hear you on the pricing trends. I guess, maybe just square a couple of comments. So you mentioned the incremental slowing in the back half of the quarter, which makes sense with what rates have done. Assumingly that comment is mainly about transaction sides. But I guess I'm just curious with rates continuing to move higher, are you seeing any change in the pricing dynamics at all? Or is the kind of ASP growth just seemingly kind of remaining in place and it's more of a transaction side issue?

好的。完美的。然後是第二位，瑞安。所以我聽到你談論定價趨勢。我想，也許只是提出一些評論。因此，您提到了本季後半段的增量放緩，這與利率的表現是有道理的。假設該評論主要是關於交易方的。但我想我只是對利率繼續走高感到好奇，您是否看到定價動態有任何變化？或者，平均售價的成長似乎仍然存在，而更多的是交易方面的問題？

Yes. In our book, it's a units issue. It's a transaction sizes. And I just think it gets back to the -- even at the higher rates, there is still more demand than supply for the houses that are out there, which is strange, obviously, given the affordability issues of 8% mortgage rates, but it is the reality.

是的。在我們的書中，這是一個單位問題。這是交易規模。我只是認為這又回到了——即使利率較高，現有房屋的需求仍然大於供應，考慮到 8% 抵押貸款利率的負擔能力問題，這顯然很奇怪，但它是現實。

And so even in the back half of the year, we didn't see like when I look at September prices, they didn't behave differently than the quarterly prices. What was different in September was more pressure on the unit side, and that drove a little bit worse results volume-wise in the quarter than we thought and a little bit of why we're at the worst end of the volume guidance that we think for the year. So it really was a unit story, not a price story.

因此，即使在今年下半年，當我查看 9 月的價格時，我們也沒有發現它們的表現與季度價格沒有什麼不同。 9 月的不同之處在於單位方面的壓力更大，這導致該季度的銷售業績比我們想像的要差一些，這也是今年我們認為銷售指導最差的原因之一。所以這確實是一個單位故事，而不是一個價格故事。

And again, we're not going to sit here and bet our future that prices are going to go in a certain direction. We're really focused on what's happening on the unit front and what we can do for our same franchisees there, what we can do on our cost base on a lower unit environment, et cetera. But we didn't see anything in the end of the quarter that changes the price unit dynamics that we saw for the full quarter.

再說一遍，我們不會坐在這裡押注未來價格將朝某個方向發展。我們真正關注的是單位方面正在發生的事情，以及我們可以為那裡的相同特許經營商做些什麼，我們可以在較低單位環境的成本基礎上做什麼，等等。但我們在本季末沒有看到任何改變我們在整個季度看到的價格單位動態的情況。

We have no further questions at this time. And this will conclude today's conference call. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。