(HOG) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Harley-Davidson First Quarter 2024 Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Shawn Collins. Mr. Collins. Please go ahead.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加哈雷戴維森 2024 年第一季電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把電話轉給肖恩柯林斯。柯林斯先生。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning. This is Shawn Collins, the Director of Investor Relations at Harley-Davidson. You can access the slides supporting today's call on the internet at the Harley-Davidson Investor Relations website.

謝謝。早安.我是肖恩‧柯林斯 (Shawn Collins)，哈雷戴維森投資者關係總監。您可以在哈雷戴維森投資者關係網站上透過網路存取支援今天電話會議的幻燈片。

As you might expect, our comments will include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted in today's earnings release and in our latest filings with the SEC. Joining me for this morning's call are Harley-Davidson, Chief Executive Officer, Jochen Zeitz; also Chief Financial Officer, Jonathan Root, and we have LiveWire's Chief Executive Officer, Karim Donnez.

正如您所期望的那樣，我們的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在可能導致實際結果產生重大差異的風險。這些風險包括我們在今天的財報和向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件中指出的事項等。與我一起參加今天早上電話會議的有哈雷戴維森執行長 Jochen Zeitz；還有財務長 Jonathan Root，LiveWire 的執行長 Karim Donnez。

With that, let me turn it over to our CEO, Jochen Zeitz. Jochen?

接下來，讓我將其交給我們的執行長 Jochen Zeitz。約亨？

Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our Q1 2024 results. Harley-Davidson delivered a good start to the year, in line with our expectations. Looking at retail for the quarter, we are pleased with our delivery of 6% growth in North America, our largest and most important region. In Q1, we continued to see the impacts of the higher interest rate environment on both consumer confidence and affordability. However, it is positive to see customer enthusiasm for motorcycles despite this challenging environment.

謝謝肖恩，大家早安。感謝您關注我們的 2024 年第一季業績。哈雷戴維森今年開局良好，符合我們的預期。看看本季的零售業，我們對北美這一最大、最重要的地區實現 6% 的成長感到高興。第一季度，我們持續看到利率上升環境對消費者信心和承受能力的影響。然而，儘管環境充滿挑戰，但看到客戶對摩托車的熱情是積極的。

Outside of North America, both the Europe and APAC regions were soft, mainly due to regional macroeconomic conditions. However, it is also worth noting that our '24 product only started to arrive in the international regions in March and is just now making its way into most international markets. And as the riding season is starting to get into gear, we are excited for our riders and fans, both inside and outside of North America to get to experience the next era of Harley-Davidson touring motorcycles.

除北美之外，歐洲和亞太地區均表現疲軟，主要是由於區域宏觀經濟狀況。不過，值得注意的是，我們的 '24 產品從 3 月才開始進入國際地區，目前剛進入大多數國際市場。隨著騎乘季節的到來，我們很高興北美國內外的騎士和車迷能夠體驗哈雷戴維森旅行摩托車的下一個時代。

As usual, I will now briefly address select Hardwire strategic pillars and our delivery of them, starting with Pillar 1, profit focus. When we announced our hardware strategy back in 2021, we made a commitment to invest in our core categories. And building on that commitment this year, we ushered in a new area of motorcycle touring by reimagining in two of the most iconic motorcycles in history, the Harley-Davidson Street and Road Glide with the most comprehensive product redevelopment in well over 10 years. Overall, we are very pleased with our new model year launch and in particular, our new touring lineup, which is being received very positively by customers, dealers and media like. One outlet summarized the launch particularly well.

像往常一樣，我現在將簡要討論選定的 Hardwire 策​​略支柱以及我們對它們的交付，從支柱 1（利潤焦點）開始。當我們在 2021 年宣布硬體策略時，我們承諾投資於我們的核心品類。今年，基於這項承諾，我們透過十多年來最全面的產品重新開發，對歷史上最具標誌性的兩款摩托車Harley-Davidson Street 和Road Glide 進行了重新設計，開創了摩托車旅行的新領域。總體而言，我們對新車型的推出感到非常滿意，特別是我們的新旅行車系列，受到了客戶、經銷商和媒體等的積極好評。一家媒體對此次發布進行了很好的總結。

The motor company took the motorcycling world by surprise with the release of the revamped versions of the Road Glide and Street Glide completely different from their predecessors, a more modernized approach that made them superior to the previous generation in nearly every facet. The all new Street Glide and Road Glide models have set a new standard for the industry and the future of touring and adventure on 2-wheels with exceptional performance, cutting-edge innovation and bold new design, representing the largest investment made by the motor company into a single platform.

該汽車公司發布了與前代車型完全不同的改良版 Road Glide 和 Street Glide，讓摩托車界大吃一驚，這種更現代化的方法使它們幾乎在每個方面都優於上一代產品。全新Street Glide和Road Glide車型以卓越的性能、尖端的創新和大膽的全新設計，為行業和兩輪旅行和冒險的未來樹立了新標準，代表著汽車公司最大的投資到一個單一的平台。

We believe that by elevating every aspect of performance, technology, comfort and style we have, without question, created the most enticing touring motorcycles ever offered by Harley-Davidson. We continue to see significant positivity for the product across the network and are excited for our riders to have full access to the lineup as the riding season gets underway. Included in our '24 launch and designed to celebrate 25 years of custom vehicle operations. Our CVO lineup expanded with the introduction of the all-new CVO Road Glide ST, representing the pinnacle of Becker Performance and the CVO Pan America fully kitted out for extraordinary adventures.

我們相信，透過提升性能、技術、舒適性和風格的各個方面，毫無疑問，我們創造了哈雷戴維森有史以來最具吸引力的旅行摩托車。我們繼續看到該產品在整個網路中的顯著積極性，並且很高興我們的騎手能夠在騎行季節開始時完全使用該陣容。包含在我們的 '24 發布中，旨在慶祝定制車輛運營 25 週年。隨著全新 CVO Road Glide ST 的推出，我們的 CVO 產品陣容進一步擴大，它代表了 Becker Performance 的頂峰，而 CVO Pan America 則為非凡的冒險做好了充分準備。

The CVO Road Glide ST is the lightest fastest and most sophisticated performance bagger ever produced by Harley-Davidson. Taking from our popular low ride AST offering, the CVO Road Glide ST combines West Coast custom style, and the performance trend that we've been feeling with the King of the Bagger Racing series. To quote another outlet, the CVO ST is the best motorcycle Harley-Davidson has ever put out. For '24, we also repriced both the CVO Street and Road Glide models that we introduced during Homecoming last year in exciting new color options.

CVO Road Glide ST 是哈雷戴維森有史以來生產的最輕、最快、最先進的性能裝袋機。 CVO Road Glide ST 借鑒了我們廣受歡迎的低速 AST 產品，結合了西海岸客製化風格以及我們在 Bagger Racing 系列之王中感受到的性能趨勢。引用另一家媒體的話說，CVO ST 是哈雷戴維森有史以來推出的最好的摩托車。對於 24 年，我們還對去年返校節期間推出的 CVO Street 和 Road Glide 車型進行了重新定價，提供了令人興奮的新顏色選擇。

The CVO Pan America is another new vehicle and the CVO program's first adventure touring motorcycle. All of the features that have made the Pan America 1250 specially a leading choice among discerning global adventure touring riders have been retained with the CVO Pan America being kitted out with an additional host of rugged accessories selected to enhance the journey.

CVO Pan America 是另一款新車，也是 CVO 計畫的第一款冒險旅行摩托車。讓 Pan America 1250 成為挑剔的全球冒險旅行騎士的首選的所有功能均得以保留，CVO Pan America 配備了一系列額外的堅固配件，旨在增強旅程體驗。

With the Hardwire, we also made a commitment to introduce a series of motorcycles that align with our strategy to increase desirability and to drive the legacy of Harley-Davidson. With that in mind this February during Daytona Bike Week, we revealed the latest additions to our limited edition Harley-Davidson icons and the limited run enthusiast collection. For the '24 icons models, this year, we launched the Hydra-Glide Revival, celebrating the 75th year of this iconic motorcycle. The release was inspired by the look of the motorcycles written in the area of the upcoming film, The Bikeriders, which follows the rise of a Midwestern Motorcycle Club as seen through the lights of its members. Coming to your screens, this summer the film is scheduled to be released in the United States on June 21.

透過 Hardwire，我們也承諾推出一系列符合我們策略的摩托車，以提高人們的需求並推動哈雷戴維森的傳承。考慮到這一點，我們在今年二月的代托納自行車週期間推出了限量版哈雷戴維森標誌和限量版愛好者係列的最新產品。對於 '24 標誌性車型，今年我們推出了 Hydra-Glide Revival，慶祝這款標誌性摩托車問世 75 週年。這個版本的靈感來自即將上映的電影《摩托騎士》中的摩托車外觀，該電影透過其成員的燈光講述了中西部摩托車俱樂部的崛起。該片將於今年夏天於 6 月 21 日在美國上映。

For the '24 enthusiast offering, we celebrated both music and motorcycles with the release of the Tobacco Fade Enthusiast motorcycle collection available across 3 models, the Low Rider ST, the Ultra limit and the Tri Glide Ultra. Again, we've seen a very positive response from customers to these offerings just in time for the rising season to get well underway.

對於 '24 愛好者產品，我們發布了 Tobacco Fade Enthusiast 摩托車系列，共有 3 種型號，即 Low Rider ST、Ultra limit 和 Tri Glide Ultra，以此慶祝音樂和摩托車。我們再次看到客戶對這些產品的非常積極的反應，正好趕上生長季節的順利進行。

Pillar 3, leading in electric. LiveWire continued to pioneer the EV segment with the launch of the S2 Mulholland, all new electric cruiser, the second bike on the S2 platform. The bike has been met with a very positive response in the industry as Karim will detail shortly. We're also very pleased that LiveWire has become the market leader for on-road EV motorcycles in the U.S. this past quarter. And with the company increasing its focus on vehicle and operational costs, it will also consolidate its operations in Milwaukee at Harley-Davidson's historic headquarter at Juno Avenue.

第三支柱，電力領先。 LiveWire 繼續引領電動車領域，推出了全新電動巡洋艦 S2 Mulholland，這是 S2 平台上的第二款自行車。這款自行車在業界獲得了非常積極的反響，卡里姆很快就會詳細介紹。我們也非常高興 LiveWire 在上個季度成為美國公路電動摩托車的市場領導者。隨著公司越來越關注車輛和營運成本，它還將把其在密爾瓦基的業務整合到位於朱諾大道的哈雷戴維森歷史悠久的總部。

Turning to Pillar 4, growth beyond bikes. In February, through HDFS, we launched Harley-Davidson Flex Financing. For the first time in our history, this innovative loan option provides an alternate way to purchase a Harley-Davidson motorcycle. By combining the benefits of attractive monthly payments, shorter terms and greater flexibility throughout the loan period. The product offers customers the ability to return the motorcycle at the end of the term, ready to replace or upgrade into the next Harley-Davidson purchase. We are committed to putting customers at the forefront of our products and experiences, HD Flex does just that, while providing them with another innovative financing option to make Harley-Davidson motorcycle ownership fit the individual budget and lifestyle.

轉向第四支柱，自行車以外的成長。今年 2 月，我們透過 HDFS 推出了 Harley-Davidson Flex Financing。這個創新的貸款選項在我們歷史上首次提供了購買哈雷戴維森摩托車的另一種方式。透過結合有吸引力的每月付款、更短的期限和整個貸款期間更大的靈活性的好處。該產品使客戶能夠在期限結束時退回摩托車，準備更換或升級到下一次購買的哈雷戴維森。我們致力於將客戶置於我們產品和體驗的最前沿，HD Flex 正是這樣做的，同時為他們提供另一種創新的融資選擇，使哈雷戴維森摩托車的所有權適合個人預算和生活方式。

Pillar 5 customer experience. We are just under 100 days to go, our second annual homecoming event will be taking place July 25 to 28. And last week, we announced the full roster of performance with headliners, including the Red Hot Chili Peppers, Jelly Roll and Hardy. Tickets are now on sale and we look forward to coming together with our community of fans, riders and their families to celebrate our brand of motoculture and music. And I hope to see many of you there.

第五支柱客戶體驗。距離活動不到100 天，我們的第二屆年度返校節活動將於7 月25 日至28 日舉行。表演的完整名單。門票現已發售，我們期待與我們的車迷、車手及其家人一起慶祝我們的摩托車文化和音樂品牌。我希望在那裡見到你們中的許多人。

And lastly, on Pillar 6, inclusive stakeholder management. We are looking forward to formally unveiling the new community park at our Juno Avenue headquarters on June 24. The project, which has been pioneered by the Harley-Davidson Foundation, we look to further connect the company our brand and our employees to the local community, reinforcing our commitment to our home town Milwaukee. We could not be more excited to show you our neighborhood on the near West side.

最後，關於第六支柱，包容性利害關係人管理。我們期待 6 月 24 日在朱諾大道總部正式揭幕新社區公園。密爾瓦基的承諾。我們非常高興向您展示我們靠近西側的社區。

Before I hand over to Karim to cover Lightwire, I would like to cover our outlook for the rest of the year. As we said earlier in the year for HDMC we expect retail units to be flat to up 9%. From an inventory point of view, we believe these are appropriately positioned with the riding season getting into swing, and we continue to expect that wholesale unit shipments will move together with dealer retail sales on a balanced basis by the end of '24. This range would equate to wholesale unit shipments being down between 1% and 10% versus prior year. This was result in HDMC revenue coming in flat to down 9%. We expect HDMC operating income margin of 12.6% to 13.6%. This is flat to down 100 basis points from the '23 level.

在我交給 Karim 負責 Lightwire 之前，我想談談我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。正如我們今年稍早對 HDMC 所說，我們預計零售單位將持平至成長 9%。從庫存的角度來看，我們認為隨著騎行季節的到來，這些產品的定位是適當的，並且我們繼續預計到 24 年底批發單位發貨量將與經銷商零售額平衡地移動。這一範圍相當於批發單位出貨量比去年下降 1% 到 10%。這導致 HDMC 收入持平或下降 9%。我們預期 HDMC 營業利潤率為 12.6% 至 13.6%。這與 23 年的水平持平甚至下降了 100 個基點。

Let me mention the specific drivers of this again, negative operating leverage due to lower wholesale volumes. Foreign currency, which we expect to be a headwind. Mix, which we expect to be slightly favorable. Pricing, which we expect to be slightly down as we eliminated the surcharge and fine-tuned our pricing strategy. And lastly, we expect some additional manufacturing costs as we realign factory processes in the initial year of production of the new Street Glide and Road Glide motorcycles. At HDFS, we expect operating income led to up 5%, reflecting retail and wholesale portfolios and customers settling into the existing macroeconomic backdrop.

讓我再次提及這現象的具體驅動因素，即批發量下降導致的負經營槓桿。外幣，我們預計這將是一個阻力。混合，我們預計會稍微有利。定價，隨著我們取消附加費並調整定價策略，我們預計定價會略有下降。最後，由於我們在生產新 Street Glide 和 Road Glide 摩托車的第一年重新調整工廠流程，預計會產生一些額外的製造成本。在 HDFS，我們預期營業收入將成長 5%，反映出零售和批發投資組合以及客戶已適應現有的宏觀經濟背景。

As you will hear from Karim now, for the full year, LiveWire is revising its operating loss guidance and now expects an improved operating loss of $105 million to $115 million from previous guidance of an operating loss of $115 million to $125 million.

正如您現在從卡里姆那裡聽到的那樣，LiveWire 正在修改其全年營運虧損指導，目前預計營運虧損將從先前的 1.15 億美元至 1.25 億美元營運虧損改善至 1.05 億美元至 1.15 億美元。

Lastly, I would like to reinforce our commitment to returning excess free cash flow to our shareholders. We plan to continue to optimize our returns through share repurchases and appropriate dividend payments. You can see our commitment to capital returns since 2022 on Page 15. Since the beginning of '22 and through Q1 '24, we've bought back $773 million in shares and paid out $214 million in dividends. This equates to almost $1 billion in capital returned to shareholders since '22 and a share buyback amounting to 14% of our outstanding shares. We are planning to remain on a similar trajectory to this annualized rate throughout '24.

最後，我想重申我們將多餘的自由現金流回饋給股東的承諾。我們計劃透過股票回購和適當的股利支付繼續優化我們的回報。您可以在第 15 頁上看到我們自 2022 年以來對資本回報的承諾。這相當於自 22 年以來向股東返還了近 10 億美元的資本，以及相當於我們已發行股票 14% 的股票回購。我們計劃在 2024 年保持與這一年率類似的軌跡。

Thank you. And now I'll hand it over to Karim.

謝謝。現在我將把它交給卡里姆。

Thank you, Jochen. Good morning, everyone. We are happy to report on a successful launch of the S2 Mulholland in both the United States and Canada. This is the second model cycle built on the LiveWire developed S2 platform following the S2 Del Mar. This brings our lineup to feedback expanding the choices available to LiveWire riders. The response from the market has been positive with riders, retailers and media responding to the Mulholland timing and the option to choose the bike with a lower riding position.

謝謝你，喬亨。大家，早安。我們很高興地報告 S2 穆赫蘭在美國和加拿大成功推出。這是繼 S2 Del Mar 之後，在 LiveWire 開發的 S2 平台上構建的第二個車型週期。市場反應積極，騎士、零售商和媒體對穆赫蘭道時機和選擇較低騎乘位置的自行車的選擇做出了回應。

In the first quarter, LiveWire reported sales of 117 units, an 86% increase over the first quarter of 2023. Our retail sales outpaced wholesale as Del Mar made its way into the channel, making, as Jochen mentioned, LiveWire, the #1 onboard electric motorcycles in the U.S. In Europe, we began shipping S2 Del Mar to our 4 priority countries at the end of the quarter, with products now available across our network in the region. We have similar plans for (inaudible) with the first bike being shipped to Europe as we speak.

第一季度，LiveWire 報告銷量為117 台，比2023 年第一季成長86%。產品在美國的電動摩托車。我們也有類似的計畫（聽不清楚），就在我們說話的時候，第一輛自行車被運往歐洲。

While we plan to expand our market leadership, our teams are working on design engineering and sourcing initiatives to reduce the cost of our products. We are also planning to reduce spend and closely manage cash across the operations to get the most out of our strategic investments. To that effect, we will centralize all of our operations in Juno Avenue in Milwaukee including the relocation of LiveWire lab operations from California to enable energy and efficiency. We will take this opportunity to streamline and revisit the organization structure to achieve simplicity in everything we do.

在我們計劃擴大市場領導地位的同時，我們的團隊正在致力於設計工程和採購計劃，以降低我們產品的成本。我們還計劃減少支出並密切管理整個營運部門的現金，以充分利用我們的策略投資。為此，我們將把所有業務集中在密爾瓦基的朱諾大道，包括將 LiveWire 實驗室業務從加州搬遷，以實現能源和效率。我們將藉此機會精簡並重新審視組織結構，讓我們所做的一切變得簡單。

While we maintain the outlook for the revenue units, we now expect a $10 million improvement in operating while continuing to focus the larger portion of expenses on product innovation and market development. LiveWire is fully committed to the electrification of the sport by building the best product and delivering an unmatched customer experience.

雖然我們維持收入單位的前景，但我們現在預計營運將改善 1000 萬美元，同時繼續將大部分費用集中在產品創新和市場開發上。 LiveWire 完全致力於透過打造最好的產品並提供無與倫比的客戶體驗來實現運動的電氣化。

Thank you. And now I'll hand it over to Jonathan.

謝謝。現在我將把它交給喬納森。

Thank you, Karim, and good morning to all. I plan to start on Page 5 of the presentation, where I will briefly summarize the consolidated financial results for the first quarter of 2024, and subsequently, I will go into further detail on each business segment. Consolidated revenue in the first quarter was down 3%, driven by HDMC revenue decrease of 5% and which was partially offset by HDFS revenue growth of 12%. Consolidated operating income in the first quarter performed in line with our expectations and was down 29%, driven by a decline of 29% at HDMC, a decline of 8% at HDFS and an operating loss of $29 million in the LiveWire segment.

謝謝你，卡里姆，祝大家早安。我計劃從簡報的第 5 頁開始，簡要總結 2024 年第一季的合併財務業績，隨後，我將進一步詳細介紹每個業務部門。第一季的綜合收入下降了 3%，這是由於 HDMC 收入下降 5%，但 HDFS 收入成長 12% 部分抵消了這一下降。第一季合併營業收入的表現符合我們的預期，下降了 29%，其中 HDMC 下降 29%，HDFS 下降 8%，LiveWire 部門營業虧損 2,900 萬美元。

Consolidated operating income margin in the first quarter was 15.2%, representing a 545 basis point decline versus Q1 of 2024. The lower consolidated margin is largely due to a lower Q1 margin at HDMC driven by lower volumes, pricing and associated throughput. I plan to go into further detail on each business segment's profit and loss drivers in the next section. First quarter earnings per share was $1.72. In Q1, global retail sales of new motorcycles were flat versus the prior year. In North America, Q1 retail sales were up 6% and driven primarily by the redesigned and all new Street Glide and Road Glide touring motorcycles, which were introduced at the end of January.

第一季的綜合營業利潤率為15.2%，與2024 年第一季相比下降了545 個基點。低。我計劃在下一節中進一步詳細介紹每個業務部門的損益驅動因素。第一季每股收益為 1.72 美元。第一季度，全球新摩托車零售額與去年持平。在北美，第一季零售額成長了 6%，主要得益於 1 月底推出的重新設計的全新 Street Glide 和 Road Glide 旅行摩托車。

In EMEA, Q1 retail sales declined by 11% due to weakness in Germany and France. Overall, EMEA continues to be adversely impacted by macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical uncertainty, which has led to sluggish economic growth. In Asia Pacific, Q1 retail sales declined by 12%, driven by weakness primarily in China. This is the third quarter in a row where we have experienced declines in the region after 6 sequential quarters of solid year-over-year growth in Asia Pacific.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，由於德國和法國的疲軟，第一季零售額下降了 11%。總體而言，歐洲、中東和非洲地區持續受到宏觀經濟狀況和地緣政治不確定性的不利影響，導致經濟成長乏力。在亞太地區，第一季零售額下降了 12%，主要受到中國疲軟的推動。在亞太地區連續六個季度實現同比穩健增長之後，這是該地區連續第三個季度出現下滑。

In Latin America, Q1 retail sales experienced modest growth in both Mexico and Brazil. Dealer inventory at the end of Q1 was up approximately 26% as compared to the end of Q1 in 2023. We believe current dealer inventory and product availability are in healthy positions overall as we approach the spring 2024 riding season. This is important with the recent launch of new model year 2024 motorcycles, especially with the positive reception to our new Street Glide and Road Glide touring models.

在拉丁美洲，墨西哥和巴西第一季零售額均出現小幅成長。與 2023 年第一季末相比，第一季末的經銷商庫存增加了約 26%。我們相信，隨著 2024 年春季騎行季節的臨近，當前經銷商庫存和產品供應總體處於健康狀態。這對於最近推出的 2024 年新摩托車來說非常重要，尤其是我們的新 Street Glide 和 Road Glide 旅行車型受到了積極歡迎。

Looking at revenue, HDMC revenue decreased by 5% in Q1. Focusing on the key drivers for the quarter, 7 points of decline came from decreased wholesale volume at HDMC largely due to the fact that dealers were rebuilding dealer inventory in Q1 2023 after the lows they experienced following the pandemic. Motorcycle shipments in the quarter, while below prior year, were slightly ahead of 2021 and 2022 levels. 3 points of decline came from pricing, which includes the impacts of the pricing surcharge elimination, other pricing actions on 2024 model year and sales incentives. Mix contributed 4 points of growth as we continue to prioritize our most profitable models and markets. And finally, foreign exchange was flat to Q1 prior year.

從營收來看，第一季 HDMC 營收下降了 5%。關注本季的主要驅動因素，HDMC 批發量下降 7 個百分點，這主要是由於經銷商在經歷了疫情後的低點後，在 2023 年第一季重建了經銷商庫存。本季摩托車出貨量雖然低於去年同期，但略高於 2021 年和 2022 年的水準。下降 3 個百分點來自定價，其中包括取消定價附加費、對 2024 車型年的其他定價行動以及銷售激勵措施的影響。隨著我們繼續優先考慮最有利可圖的模式和市場，混合貢獻了 4 個成長點。最後，外匯交易與去年第一季持平。

In Q1, HDMC gross margin was 31.2%, which compares to 35.8% in the prior year. The decrease of 450 basis points was driven by lower operating leverage and the revenue factors I just spoke about as well as continued modest cost inflation of 1% to 2%. The majority of the units shipped in the first quarter of 2024 and 2023 were produced in the preceding fourth quarters in advance of the new model year launch. Production volumes were down 24% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, which resulted in a higher fixed cost per unit on motorcycles shipped in Q1 of 2024 compared to Q1 of 2023.

第一季度，HDMC 毛利率為 31.2%，去年同期為 35.8%。下降 450 個基點是由於較低的營運槓桿和我剛才談到的收入因素以及持續溫和的 1% 至 2% 的成本通膨。 2024 年第一季和 2023 年出貨的大部分車型是在新車型年推出之前的前第四季生產的。與 2022 年第四季相比，2023 年第四季的產量下降了 24%，這導致 2024 年第一季出貨的摩托車的單位固定成本高於 2023 年第一季。

The unfavorable impact of lower operating leverage was offset by other productivity savings related primarily to logistics during the quarter. HDMC operating margin came in at 16.2%, which is above our full year expectations and in line with expectations for the quarter. At Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Q1 revenue increased by $26 million or 12%, driven by higher retail and commercial finance receivables as well as higher average yields as the portfolio resets over time due to higher base rates, which are driving higher interest income.

本季營運槓桿較低的不利影響被主要與物流相關的其他生產力節省所抵消。 HDMC 營業利益率為 16.2%，高於我們全年預期，也符合本季預期。在哈雷戴維森金融服務公司，第一季營收成長了2,600 萬美元，即12%，這是由於零售和商業金融應收帳款增加，以及由於基本利率提高而導致投資組合隨著時間的推移而重置，平均收益率也隨之提高，從而推動了利息收入的增加。

HDFS operating income was $54 million, down $5 million or 8% compared to last year. The Q1 decline was driven by higher borrowing costs, a higher provision for credit losses and higher operating expenses. These increased costs were partially offset by higher interest income. Total interest expense was up $15 million or 21% versus the prior year. The increase was driven by a higher cost of funds as lower interest rate debt matured and was replaced with current market rate debt.

HDFS 營業收入為 5,400 萬美元，比去年減少 500 萬美元，即 8%。第一季的下降是由於借貸成本上升、信貸損失準備金增加以及營運費用增加造成的。這些增加的成本被利息收入的增加部分抵消。總利息支出比前一年增加了 1500 萬美元，即 21%。這一增長是由於較低利率債務到期並被當前市場利率債務取代而導致資金成本上升所致。

In Q1, HDFS' annualized retail credit loss ratio was 3.7% which compares to an annualized retail credit loss ratio of 3.2% in Q1 of 2023. The increase in credit losses was driven by several factors relating to the current macroeconomic environment and the related customer and industry dynamics. In addition, the retail allowance for credit losses for the first quarter remained flat at 5.4% from Q4 of 2023. Total retail loan originations in Q1 were up 2% while commercial financing activities were up 22% to $1.5 billion. Total quarter end net financing receivables, including both retail loans and commercial financing was $7.9 billion, which was up 4% versus prior year.

第一季度，HDFS 的年化零售信貸損失率為3.7%，而2023 年第一季的年化零售信貸損失率為3.2%。個因素推動的以及產業動態。此外，第一季零售信貸損失準備金與 2023 年第四季相比維持在 5.4% 不變。季末應收融資淨額（包括零售貸款和商業融資）總額為 79 億美元，比去年同期成長 4%。

For the LiveWire segment, electric motorcycles revenue decreased in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the prior year period despite higher unit sales in the quarter. The lower revenue was due primarily to product mix and the onetime adjustment relating to a change in their retail partner strategy. Selling, engineering and administrative expenses remained relatively flat compared to the prior year. As expected, basic revenue was down compared to Q1 of 2023, primarily due to a reduction in third-party brand and distributor volumes.

對於 LiveWire 細分市場，儘管該季度的銷量有所增加，但與去年同期相比，電動摩托車收入在 2024 年第一季有所下降。收入下降的主要原因是產品組合以及與零售合作夥伴策略變化相關的一次性調整。與前一年相比，銷售、工程和管理費用保持相對穩定。如預期，基本收入較 2023 年第一季有所下降，主要是由於第三方品牌和分銷商數量的減少。

LiveWire operating loss of $29 million was in line with our expectations as LiveWire continued to invest in new motorcycle models and action initiatives to reduce EV costs. In addition, SG&A was flat to prior year. Wrapping up with consolidated Harley-Davidson, Inc. full year financial results, we delivered $104 million of operating cash flow in Q1, which was up from $47 million in the prior period. The increase in operating cash flow was due primarily to lower net cash outflows for wholesale financing and favorable changes in working capital compared to Q1 of 2023.

LiveWire 營運虧損 2,900 萬美元符合我們的預期，因為 LiveWire 繼續投資新的摩托車型號和降低電動車成本的行動計畫。此外，SG&A 與上年持平。總結哈雷戴維森公司全年綜合財務業績，我們在第一季實現了 1.04 億美元的營運現金流，高於上一季的 4,700 萬美元。經營現金流量的增加主要是由於與 2023 年第一季相比，批發融資的淨現金流出減少以及營運資本的有利變化。

Total cash and cash equivalents ended at $1.5 billion, which was $97 million lower than at the end of Q1 prior year. This consolidated cash number includes $141 million at LiveWire. Additionally, as part of our capital allocation strategy and in line with our commitment to return capital to our shareholders, we bought back 2.5 million shares of our stock at a value of $98 million in Q1 of 2024. As we look to the rest of 2024, we remain excited about our new 2024 motorcycle lineup, and as Jochen discussed, we are reaffirming our full year guidance with the exception of the improvement noted in LiveWire operating loss.

現金和現金等價物總額最終為 15 億美元，比上年第一季末減少 9,700 萬美元。這一綜合現金數字包括 LiveWire 的 1.41 億美元。此外，作為我們資本配置策略的一部分，並根據我們向股東返還資本的承諾，我們在 2024 年第一季以 9,800 萬美元的價格回購了 250 萬股股票。我們新的2024 年摩托車陣容感到興奮，正如Jochen 所討論的那樣，我們重申了我們的全年指導，但LiveWire 運營虧損有所改善。

I would like to put some unit numbers to our 2024 outlook that Jochen cited earlier, and these are in line with what we said on our last earnings call, which took place in February. At HDMC we expect that retail units sold and wholesale unit shipments will move together on a balanced basis in 2024. We expect 163,000 to 178,000 retail and wholesale units. This results in HDMC revenue coming in flat to down 9% versus prior year.

我想在 Jochen 之前提到的 2024 年展望中添加一些單位數字，這些數字與我們在 2 月舉行的上次財報電話會議上所說的一致。在 HDMC，我們預計 2024 年零售單位銷售和批發單位出貨量將平衡變化。這導致 HDMC 收入與去年持平，甚至下降 9%。

Last, I will touch on a couple of additional items in terms of capital investments and capital allocation. We continue to expect total HDI capital investments in the range of $225 million to $250 million. As we look at capital allocation in 2024, our priorities remain to fund profitable growth of the hardwire initiatives, which includes the capital expenditures mentioned previously, paying dividends and continuing to execute discretionary share repurchases.

最後，我將談談資本投資和資本配置的一些附加事項。我們仍預期 HDI 資本投資總額在 2.25 億美元至 2.5 億美元之間。當我們展望 2024 年的資本配置時，我們的首要任務仍然是為硬體計畫的獲利成長提供資金，其中包括前面提到的資本支出、支付股息和繼續執行酌情股票回購。

And with that, we will open it up to Q&A.

至此，我們將開放問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Craig Kennison from Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Baird 的 Craig Kennison。

I'm wondering if you can speak to the health of the dealer network. We've seen kind of across our powersports and marine coverage that dealers have been struggling with too much inventory and skinny margins and then rates are moving against them as well, which hurts on the floor plan side. Nothing really unique to Harley-Davidson, but there is a lot of macro stress. I'm just wondering how you feel about the health of the dealer network and whether you're hearing anything different from your new Chief Commercial Officer, Luke Mansfield.

我想知道您是否可以談談經銷商網路的健康狀況。我們在動力運動和船舶報道中看到，經銷商一直在與過多的庫存和微薄的利潤作鬥爭，然後費率也對他們不利，這對平面圖方面造成了傷害。哈雷戴維森沒有什麼真正獨特的地方，但宏觀壓力很大。我只是想知道您對經銷商網路的健康狀況有何看法，以及您是否從新任首席商務官盧克·曼斯菲爾德那裡聽到了任何不同的聲音。

Craig, it's Jonathan. Thank you for your question. I'll start. And so I think relative to dealers, if we look at dealers today, certainly, certainly, from a Harley-Davidson perspective, there's enthusiasm for what's out there. And I think a recognition that customers are showing up, taking a look at our new Street Glide and Road Glide motorcycles and then obviously the other 24 model years. So as you look at the start to the year, I think we're pretty pleased with what that looks like. And I think the dealer sentiment generally goes with that.

克雷格，我是喬納森。謝謝你的問題。我開始吧。因此，我認為相對於經銷商而言，如果我們今天看看經銷商，從哈雷戴維森的角度來看，當然，當然，他們對那裡的產品充滿熱情。我認為客戶的出現是一種認識，他們參觀了我們的新 Street Glide 和 Road Glide 摩托車，當然還有其他 24 個年份的車型。因此，當你回顧今年年初時，我認為我們對目前的情況非常滿意。我認為經銷商的情緒普遍與此一致。

The one concern that probably is worth being open and honest about is that in an environment where interest rates have moved up a little bit, that certainly has an impact on dealers and dealer health. So from our perspective, we do pay a lot of attention to kind of the position that our dealers are in the health of the entire network. We think that's something to be very important to key in on. And so from their perspective, a little bit of concern around what they see from a floor plan perspective.

可能值得開誠佈公的一個擔憂是，在利率略有上升的環境下，這肯定會對經銷商和經銷商的健康產生影響。因此，從我們的角度來看，我們確實非常關注我們的經銷商在整個網路的健康狀況中的地位。我們認為這是非常重要的事。因此，從他們的角度來看，他們對從平面圖的角度看到的東西有點擔心。

For us, as you heard Jochen talk about on some of his introductory comments. We are paying attention to that balance between what we're putting into the channel in retail over the course of 2024. So we are supporting them through paying attention to that. As you know, we do also have some selective interest rate subvention for customers on customer-facing programs only for a 2023 model year product. At this point, that obviously helps drive dealer traffic that helps attract the more rate-sensitive customers and really help them move through their inventory.

對我們來說，正如您聽到 Jochen 談論他的一些介紹評論一樣。我們正在關注 2024 年零售通路投入之間的平衡。如您所知，我們也針對客戶導向的計畫向客戶提供一些選擇性利率補貼，僅適用於 2023 年款產品。在這一點上，這顯然有助於推動經銷商流量，有助於吸引對價格更敏感的客戶，並真​​正幫助他們清理庫存。

And then obviously, as an organization, we make sure that we have some dealer-facing programs that are out there that really support and bolster their overall health. And so from that perspective, I think something that we do stay attuned to, something that we certainly make sure that we take a look at and something that -- I think we need to make sure that, as an industry, we're sensitive to as we move through 2024.

顯然，作為一個組織，我們確保有一些經銷商的計劃，真正支持和促進他們的整體健康。因此，從這個角度來看，我認為我們確實要關註一些事情，我們肯定會確保我們關註一些事情，而且我認為我們需要確保，作為一個行業，我們是敏感的當我們邁入 2024 年時。

Just as a quick follow-up, do you have any metrics to share on how fresh or current year inventory as compared to prior periods.

作為快速跟進，您是否有任何指標可以分享有關新鮮或當前年度庫存與前期相比的情況。

Sure. So as we take a look at the mix that we have from a unit perspective, it does look a little bit different as you look across the globe. So some different answers, I think, that vary when you look at North America versus EMEA versus Asia Pacific and Latin America. So obviously, as we roll out the new model year, it hits our North American dealers before it sort of touches the international dealers. So if we look at where we were in North America, for example, about 35% of dealer inventory was comprised of 2023 model year or noncurrent model year bikes. As you sort of move around the globe, it looks a little bit different.

當然。因此，當我們從單位角度審視我們的組合時，當你放眼全球時，它看起來確實有點不同。因此，我認為，當你看看北美、歐洲、中東和非洲、亞太地區和拉丁美洲時，一些不同的答案會有所不同。很明顯，當我們推出新車型時，它會先影響我們的北美經銷商，然後才會影響國際經銷商。例如，如果我們看看北美地區，大約 35% 的經銷商庫存由 2023 年或非當前自行車組成。當你在全球各地移動時，情況看起來有點不同。

So from an EMEA perspective, we get the 2024s into market because of shipping times homologation, et cetera, a little bit later. So from an EMEA standpoint, it would look more like 70% -- same thing with Asia Pacific and Latin America. So they're probably more like 70%, 75% at the end of Q1 that are 2023 or prior. So obviously, there's sort of a cadence that flows around the globe. But probably, if you are talking with North American dealers, is there probably is a little more conversation there, you would see that it's somewhere around 1/3 that are '23 and older.

因此，從 EMEA 的角度來看，我們將 2024 年推向市場是因為發貨時間認證等原因，時間稍晚。因此，從 EMEA 的角度來看，這一比例看起來更像是 70%——亞太地區和拉丁美洲也是如此。因此，到 2023 年或更早的第一季末，這一比例可能更接近 70%、75%。很明顯，有一種節奏在全球範圍內流動。但如果您與美國經銷商交談，可能會有更多的對話，您會發現大約有 1/3 的人年齡在 23 歲及以上。

Yes, Craig, Jochen here. Just a little bit more color here. We expect model year '23 to be more or less gone by the end of the second quarter. The rate with which the '23s are selling down in the U.S. is as planned. And as Jonathan said, with the new product coming in, the '23s are reducing nicely. So by the end of the second quarter, we should be pretty much -- I don't want to say out of there's always going to be 1 or 2 left the dealer, but a significant portion of the '23s will be going based on what we are seeing now.

是的，克雷格，喬亨在這裡。這裡只是多一點顏色。我們預計 '23 車型將在第二季末或多或少消失。 23 歲年輕人在美國的銷售速度符合計畫。正如喬納森所說，隨著新產品的推出，23 歲的人正在大幅減少。因此，到第二季末，我們應該差不多 - 我不想說總會有 1 或 2 名經銷商離開，但 23 歲的很大一部分將基於我們現在所看到的。

And as you look at how we expect wholesale and retail to move, obviously, in the first quarter, getting ready for riding season, we shipped more motorcycles than we retailed in advance of the riding season. You should expect Q2 to be more in equilibrium retail wholesale. And then in the second half, we would expect retail to overtake wholesale. So just sort of a little bit of color of how we expect the year to unfold.

當你看到我們預計批發和零售將如何發展時，顯然，在第一季度，為騎行季節做好準備，我們發貨的摩托車比騎行季節之前的零售量還要多。您應該預期第二季零售批發將更加平衡。然後在下半年，我們預計零售將超過批發。所以，這只是我們對這一年的預期的一點色彩。

Our next question comes from Joe Altobello from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的喬阿爾托貝洛。

Just wanted to follow up on Craig's question. Not so much inventory, but more retail. If I look at North America, the retail growth of 6% you had in the first quarter, could you give us a sense for how that might have broken down between the model year '23s versus the new model year '24s.

只是想跟進克雷格的問題。不是庫存太多，而是零售更多。如果我看看北美，第一季的零售成長率為 6%，您能否讓我們了解 23 年代車型與 24 年代新車型之間的情況如何細分。

Sure. Thank you, Joe. Good question. Obviously, as you look throughout the first quarter and you think about the impact that model year had on sort of sales trajectory and sales path. As you started the quarter in January, we were heavily 2023 since we didn't get the 2024s out there until we got into -- partway into Q1. So from a January perspective, it was probably in the range of 75%, 80% that were '23 or prior. And then as we moved through the quarter, that percentage increase to the majority by March were obviously 2024 related.

當然。謝謝你，喬。好問題。顯然，當您縱觀第一季時，您會想到車型年份對銷售軌跡和銷售路徑的影響。當您從 1 月開始本季時，我們對 2023 年的關注度很高，因為直到進入第一季的一半時我們才發布 2024 年的資訊。因此，從 1 月的角度來看，23 年或更早的比例可能在 75% 到 80% 之間。然後，隨著我們進入本季度，到 3 月份，大多數百分比的增長顯然與 2024 年相關。

There's also a little bit of a difference as you look at some of those dynamics by family. So as we look within touring, for example, a somewhat higher percentage of customer interest in North America that was focused on the all-new Street Glide and Road Glide motorcycles. From the commentary that we just talked about, if you look outside of the U.S., it certainly was a significantly smaller percentage of '24s. And then as you would imagine, we see that increasing meaningfully as we get into Q2 and beyond.

當你觀察家庭的一些動態時，也會發現一些差異。例如，當我們觀察旅行時，北美客戶對全新 Street Glide 和 Road Glide 摩托車的興趣比例較高。從我們剛才談到的評論來看，如果你看看美國以外的地區，24 歲的比例肯定要小得多。然後，正如您所想像的那樣，隨著進入第二季度及以後，我們看到這一數字有意義地增加。

Very helpful. Just a follow-up on that. Maybe sort of give us a sense for how trends progressed throughout the quarter, maybe here in April. I know January was a tough month from a weather perspective and the model year 24s haven't launched yet. But what are you seeing so far as the weather is getting warmer. And I guess just to kind of clarify, was flat Global Retail in Q1 in line with what you guys were expecting going in?

很有幫助。只是對此的後續行動。也許能讓我們了解整個季度（也許是四月）趨勢的進展。我知道從天氣角度來看，一月是一個艱難的月份，而且 24s 車型尚未推出。但隨著天氣變暖，你看到了什麼？我想澄清一下，第一季全球零售業的持平是否符合你們的預期？

Jochen here. Yes, based on the fact that, as Jonathan and I mentioned earlier, we only get our international '24 model year into markets starting in March, some regions, some margins -- some markets only even got the '24s at the end of March. So if you now look at the U.S. market or North America, January, the first 3 weeks were very -- was very little or actually no new product in market. And overall, it was a poor start to the quarter. as we had already highlighted in our February call and with the new product flowing into the market, we saw a significant uptick, which continued throughout March.

喬亨在這裡。是的，基於這樣一個事實，正如喬納森和我之前提到的那樣，我們只從3 月份開始將國際'24 車型年推向市場，某些地區，一些利潤- 有些市場甚至只在3 月底才推出'24 車型。因此，如果你現在看看美國市場或北美市場，一月份的前三週非常少，或者實際上沒有新產品上市。總體而言，本季開局不佳。正如我們在 2 月的電話會議中已經強調的那樣，隨著新產品流入市場，我們看到了顯著的上升，並持續整個 3 月。

And we are expecting that we see positive impact of the new model year now flowing into the international market, while recognizing that the touring segment has -- while it's important, is not having the same impact on overall sales as it does in the United States where it's the dominant category.

我們預計新車型將在國際市場上產生積極影響，同時認識到旅行車市場雖然很重要，但對整體銷售的影響並不像在美國那樣大它是主導類別。

Looking into April, early days, but I would say all things considered overall, I would call it so far so good. And certainly a lot better than what we've seen at the beginning of the first quarter. So we are overall positive for the quarter, and that's also reflected in our unchanged guidance.

展望四月，還處於早期階段，但我想說的是，總體而言，我認為到目前為止一切都很好。當然比我們在第一季初看到的情況要好得多。因此，我們對本季整體持樂觀態度，這也反映在我們不變的指導中。

Our next question comes from Fred Wightman from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的弗雷德懷特曼。

I just wanted to ask another one about the difference as far as '23 versus '24. I know in the past, you guys have targeted sort of plus or minus 2% in terms of MSRP realization. Is what you're seeing for '24 is sort of in line with that so far?

我只是想問另一位關於“23”和“24”的區別。我知道過去你們的目標是達成建議零售價正負 2%。您所看到的 24 年情況是否與迄今為止的情況相符？

That is correct. Yes.

那是對的。是的。

Okay. And I know that you guys had made a reserve for dealer support at the end of last year. I think it was $40 million. Is that still something that you think is sufficient to clear through the rest of those '23s?

好的。我知道你們在去年底就為經銷商支持預留了資金。我認為是 4000 萬美元。你認為這仍然足以讓你度過剩下的 23 歲嗎？

Yes. So Fred, this is Jonathan. Good question. So as we as we take a look at financials relative to support to move through those units at retail, obviously, the majority of the dollars were reserved for in Q4. There were some select segments where we made the offer a little bit more attractive from a rate standpoint. And with that, we took a dollar amount that hit our Q1 financials of about $18 million in Q1, and that's reflected as you take a look at our price walks that we put out there. But overall, we feel like the majority of the dollars obviously have been reserved. And then from what we talked about in the prior question, as that inventory sells through and moves down, obviously, from our perspective, the exposure decreases as the units decrease.

是的。弗雷德，這是喬納森。好問題。因此，當我們審視與支持零售這些單位相關的財務狀況時，顯然，大部分美元都保留在第四季度。從費率的角度來看，我們在某些​​特定細分市場中提供了更具吸引力的優惠。這樣一來，我們在第一季的財務數據就達到了約 1800 萬美元，這一點在您查看我們發布的價格走勢時就可以反映出來。但總的來說，我們覺得大部分美元顯然已經被保留了。然後，從我們在上一個問題中討論的內容來看，隨著庫存售罄並下降，顯然，從我們的角度來看，敞口隨著單位數量的減少而減少。

(inaudible) impact you should expect in the first quarter and the units are now going down. So that is reduced and the majority has been budgeted for in anticipation.

（聽不清楚）您應該預期第一季會受到影響，而單位數量現在正在下降。這樣就減少了，大部分已如預期編入預算。

Our next question comes from Alex Perry from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Alex Perry。

I think maybe a follow-up on that last question, but could you just talk about how HDMC gross margins played out versus your expectations when you sort of put all the pieces together. And I guess as we move through the year, would you expect to start to see year-over-year expansion in HDMC gross margins? Or how much should we be expecting from pressure from pricing and incentives.

我想也許是最後一個問題的後續，但您能否談談當您將所有部分放在一起時，HDMC 的毛利率與您的預期相比如何。我想隨著今年的進展，您是否預期 HDMC 的毛利率會開始年增？或者說我們應該對定價和激勵措施的壓力抱有多大的期望。

Yes. I'll let Jonathan take or explain the details. But overall, first quarter played out the way we've expected it and we held our margin guidance firm. So we feel that the next quarters will go also as expected with improvements in gross profit margin along the line. So overall, we -- there's nothing that surprised us in the first quarter the way that gross margin played out, and we think we can achieve our targets that we've set in terms of guidance. Jonathan?

是的。我會讓喬納森接受或解釋細節。但整體而言，第一季的表現符合我們的預期，我們維持了利潤指引不變。因此，我們認為接下來的幾個季度也將如預期那樣，毛利率將有所改善。因此，總的來說，第一季的毛利率表現並沒有什麼讓我們感到驚訝的，我們認為我們可以實現我們在指導方面設定的目標。喬納森？

Okay. Thanks Jochen. Alex, just to add a little bit more color on your question. I think in Q1, gross margin came in at 31.2%, which compares to 35.8% in the prior year. So obviously, as you look at that, a decrease of about 450 basis points, that was driven by lower operating leverage and the revenue factors that we walk through on Page 7 in the deck. So we have some more materials on that. We obviously -- as we look at the gross margin, as we move forward, we do envision modest cost inflation of something that's around 2%. So about where we were last year, maybe up a tiny bit from an inflation standpoint, certainly down pretty meaningfully from 2022.

好的。謝謝喬亨。亞歷克斯，只是為了讓你的問題增添一點色彩。我認為第一季的毛利率為 31.2%，而去年同期為 35.8%。很明顯，正如您所看到的，下降了約 450 個基點，這是由較低的營運槓桿和我們在第 7 頁上介紹的收入因素推動的。所以我們還有更多這方面的資料。顯然，當我們考慮毛利率時，隨著我們的前進，我們確實預計成本通膨將在 2% 左右。因此，從通貨膨脹的角度來看，我們去年的情況可能會略有上升，但與 2022 年相比肯定會大幅下降。

And hang with me here, as I explain some of this, but the majority of the units that we ship in the first quarters. So think about 2024 and 2023, those were produced in the preceding fourth quarters in advance of the new model year launch. As we sort of try to put this into perspective, production volumes in the fourth quarter of '23 were down about 24% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, which results in a higher fixed cost per unit on motorcycles that end up getting shipped in, in the respective quarters.

請耐心等待，我將解釋其中的一些內容，但我們在第一季發貨的大部分設備都是如此。因此，想想 2024 年和 2023 年，它們是在新車型年推出之前的前第四季度生產的。正如我們試圖正確看待這一問題一樣，23 年第四季度的產量與 2022 年第四季度相比下降了約 24%，這導致最終發貨的摩托車的單位固定成本更高。季度。

That unfavorable impact of the lower operating leverage is offset through productivity savings in the latest quarter were primarily related to logistics. There was also a little bit of mix noise in this quarter between motorcycle, P&A and A&L. And so the kind of complexion or makeup between motorcycle P&A and A&L causes some uniqueness as we analyze the dollars, so favorable dollars and unfavorable percent that really expresses the additional dollars from the motorcycle mix with a decreasing mix from A&L and P&A which have typically favorable margins.

營運槓桿較低的不利影響被最近一個季度主要與物流相關的生產力節省所抵消。本季摩托車、P&A 和 A&L 之間也存在一些混合噪音。因此，當我們分析美元時，摩托車P&A 和A&L 之間的膚色或組成會產生一些獨特性，因此有利的美元和不利的百分比真正表達了摩托車組合中的額外美元，而A&L 和P&A 的組合則通常有利邊距。

So good question. I think, a unique situation in terms of where we are. And then as Jochen touched on, when we sort of flow that gross margin guidance, all the way through to sort of OI margin and what we envision on that front. We came in at 16.2%, which is above our full year expectations, and as Jochen touched on, in line with expectations for the quarter. So hopefully, a little more color probably than you asked for, but hopefully, that helps explain where we are.

好問題。我認為，就我們所處的位置而言，這是一個獨特的情況。然後，正如 Jochen 談到的那樣，當我們將毛利率指導一直延伸到 OI 利潤率以及我們在這方面的設想時。我們的成長率為 16.2%，高於我們全年的預期，正如 Jochen 所說，這與本季的預期一致。因此，希望顏色比您要求的多一點，但希望這有助於解釋我們的處境。

Our next question comes from James Hardiman from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

I wanted to dig just a little bit more on the retail front and sort of how the first quarter plays into the full year. Obviously, worldwide retail flat for the first quarter. Your full year guidance is based on 0 to 9. I think a lot of us -- or at least the way I thought about it was that you had bunch of new products in the first quarter, easy comps there and then a lot of promotional dollars. So I sort of assume that the first quarter will be the strongest of the year. Maybe walk us through how you guys think about the quarterly cadence of what retail is ultimately going to look like? What it sort of needs to look like to get to your guide? And do you need any macro help to sort of get to where you think you need to be?

我想在零售方面多挖掘一點，以及第一季如何影響全年。顯然，第一季全球零售持平。你們的全年指導是基於 0 到 9。 。因此，我認為第一季將是今年最強勁的季度。或許可以告訴我們你們如何看待零售業最終的季度節奏？到達您的指南需要是什麼樣子？您是否需要任何宏觀幫助才能達到您認為需要達到的目標？

Thanks, James. It is always hard to predict retail, but I think one factor in the first quarter do consider is the '24 is not coming into the international market until very late in the quarter or not at all in some markets, as I mentioned earlier. And that should help pull some of at least the EMEA region out of the negative that we've seen in the first quarter to something that's more balanced going forward. So that's helpful.

謝謝，詹姆斯。零售總是很難預測，但我認為第一季確實要考慮的一個因素是「24」要到本季末才會進入國際市場，或者正如我之前提到的，在某些市場根本不會進入。這應該有助於至少使歐洲、中東和非洲地區的一些地區擺脫我們在第一季看到的負面影響，走向更平衡的未來。所以這很有幫助。

I think if you look at the Asia market with the weakness in China, although we expect some improvement. I would say that's unlikely to turn significantly positive. We'll have to see how that pans out. But I'm more skeptical about the Asian market, but we've budgeted accordingly. Latin America has been positive. And the U.S., if you look at the second quarter, the comp versus prior year is a little tougher than the back half of the year.

我認為，如果你看看亞洲市場，中國的疲軟，儘管我們預計會有一些改善。我想說這不太可能變得顯著正面。我們得看看結果如何。但我對亞洲市場更持懷疑態度，但我們已經做了相應的預算。拉丁美洲一直表現積極。而美國，如果你看看第二季度，你會發現與去年同期相比，情況比今年下半年還要艱難。

So you should possibly expect that the North American market -- we don't know if it's going to be positive or how positive is we feel really confident about the market. But if you just look at comps, the back half is much simpler, easier comps than the second quarter. I hope that helps a little bit to contextualize.

因此，您可能應該預期北美市場 - 我們不知道它是否會積極，或者我們對市場的信心有多積極。但如果你只看比賽，後半部比第二季更簡單、更容易。我希望這對了解情境有所幫助。

But in the first quarter, we certainly didn't have any help with the exception of Latin America that was positive albeit in small numbers from the international market. We hope that, that changes at least in EMEA, and we are confident for the rest of the year, which is -- but we also have to recognize that we're really just entering the writing season as we speak now, and a lot depends on the second quarter, which is why we have not changed our guidance at this point in time. other than confirming our 0 or flat to 9%. But we feel comfortable about that. And hopefully, we'll have more to say at the end of the second quarter.

但在第一季度，除了拉丁美洲以外，我們當然沒有得到任何積極的幫助，儘管來自國際市場的幫助數量很少。我們希望，這種情況至少在歐洲、中東和非洲地區有所改變，我們對今年剩餘時間充滿信心，但我們也必須認識到，正如我們現在所說，我們實際上剛剛進入寫作季節，而且還有很多取決於第二季度，這就是為什麼我們目前沒有改變我們的指導。除了確認我們的 0 或持平至 9% 之外。但我們對此感到很舒服。希望我們能在第二季末有更多話要說。

That's great color. Maybe just a point of clarification. So is it safe to assume that given the touring focus of the new products that the U.S. market is going to outperform the rest of the world pretty meaningfully. Any way to think through that for the year.

那顏色真棒。也許只是澄清一點。因此，考慮到新產品的巡迴重點，可以肯定地說，美國市場的表現將明顯優於世界其他地區。無論如何都要考慮一下這一年的情況。

Well, I don't want to predict what the international markets are going to say or are able to deliver. But I would say there's likely some outperformance in North America for the entire year. I think that's realistic to assume.

好吧，我不想預測國際市場將會說什麼或能夠提供什麼。但我想說，北美全年的表現可能會優於其他地區。我認為這是現實的假設。

Our next question comes from Tristan Thomas-Martin from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的特里斯坦·托馬斯·馬丁。

Just going to -- two questions. One, just kind of curious. I know weather, it seems like in some dealer checks has had some impact in dealers in some regions and some regions have had better weather. So anything you can maybe call out there in terms of just kind of overall normalized good weather retail. I'm also just curious about Flex financing. Have you seen any adoption? And do you have any targets for that?

只是想——兩個問題。一，只是有點好奇。我知道天氣，在一些經銷商檢查中似乎對一些地區的經銷商產生了一些影響，並且一些地區的天氣狀況較好。因此，您可以在整體正常化的好天氣零售方面提出任何建議。我也只是對 Flex 融資感到好奇。你看過領養嗎？您對此有什麼目標嗎？

Yes, good weather retail, I'll put that into my vocabulary. That's a good one. Unfortunately, there's never all good weather retail, I'm afraid. And we've certainly seen some of the bad weather throughout the quarter in all markets. Take California as an example. It's been terrible weather with floods and rains pretty much throughout the quarter. So that hasn't helped to kick California into GEA. And then sporadically, winter storms and everything (inaudible) either.

是的，零售天氣好，我會把它納入我的詞彙中。這是一件好事。不幸的是，恐怕零售業永遠不會有好天氣。我們確實在整個季度的所有市場都看到了一些惡劣的天氣。以加州為例。整個季度的天氣都很糟糕，洪水和降雨。因此，這並沒有幫助加州加入 GEA。然後偶爾會有冬季風暴和一切（聽不清楚）。

But I don't want to sort of play the weatherman here. I would say, overall, it's certainly not been supportive. And that's why now really counts in terms of writing season. We are pleased that overall, where there was good weather, we saw strong momentum, and we hope that, that momentum continues. But overall, I don't think it's been supportive and when the weather was bad, the numbers were not that great when the weather was good, the numbers were great. So -- and it certainly played out that way throughout North America in the first quarter.

但我不想在這裡扮演天氣預報員的角色。我想說，總的來說，這肯定不是支持性的。這就是為什麼現在對於寫作季節來說確實很重要。我們很高興總體而言，在天氣好的地方，我們看到了強勁的勢頭，我們希望這種勢頭能夠繼續下去。但總的來說，我不認為這是有支持性的，當天氣不好時，數字不是那麼好，當天氣好時，數字很大。所以——第一季整個北美地區的情況肯定都是這樣的。

Yes. And Tristan, I'll take your question on HDFS Flex financing. So from a flex financing perspective, we recognize that as we roll out anything that's significant from a product perspective, it does sort of require an entire retraining of the dealer body and the sales process. And so as we think through that, our expectations are fairly muted in terms of the impact that, that would have on 2024. And we really think it will take us 12, 18, even up to 24 months to kind of get the full dealer network behind it, fully embracing and then salespeople across the entire United States really understanding how to insert that into the sales process, how to have the right conversation with the customer.

是的。 Tristan，我將回答您有關 HDFS Flex 融資的問題。因此，從彈性融資的角度來看，我們意識到，當我們推出任何從產品角度來看具有重要意義的產品時，它確實需要對經銷商機構和銷售流程進行全面的再培訓。因此，當我們仔細考慮這一點時，我們對這對 2024 年產生的影響的期望相當低。完全擁抱，然後整個美國的銷售人員真正了解如何將其插入銷售流程中，如何與客戶進行正確的對話。

So we want to be sensitive to the fact that we don't want to prolong the sales experience for our consumers, but we do want them to understand optionality. I think the good news is that it is a triple number -- triple-digit number of dealers who have who have already executed one of those products and kind of sold that through to the consumer. So uptake will take some time. But we're pretty pleased with what we're starting to see and the response that we're getting so far from the dealer body.

因此，我們希望對這樣一個事實保持敏感：我們不想延長消費者的銷售體驗，但我們確實希望他們了解選擇性。我認為好消息是，這是一個三位數的數字——三位數的經銷商已經執行了其中一種產品並將其銷售給消費者。所以吸收需要一些時間。但我們對我們開始看到的情況以及迄今為止從經銷商那裡得到的反應感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from Noah Zatzkin from KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Noah Zatzkin。

Most of my questions have been asked and answered. Maybe just one on HDFS. How are you feeling about the health of the book? And then in terms of the annualized retail credit losses during the quarter, any reason to believe retail credit losses wouldn't kind of track with kind of normal seasonality from here? And then just anything to (inaudible).

我的大部分問題都已被提出並得到解答。也許只有 HDFS 上的一個。您對這本書的健康狀況有何感想？然後，就本季的年化零售信貸損失而言，有什麼理由相信零售信貸損失不會與這裡的正常季節性相符？然後就可以做任何事（聽不清楚）。

Okay. As we take a look at the HDFS business, we certainly recognize the uniqueness of that, the seasonality within our financial services business is certainly a little bit unique as you look across financial services. Overall, we actually feel like it's following the curve that we expected that it would from a loss perspective. As we think a little bit about the -- trying to answer your specific question on what are we thinking by quarter. We do think it's going to look pretty normal from a seasonality perspective. So as you would expect, Q1 being the highest quarter and then you start to see it come down in Q2, Q3 and then pop back up in Q4. So that sort of normal curve is something that we would expect that we'll end up seeing throughout the year.

好的。當我們審視 HDFS 業務時，我們當然認識到其獨特性，當您縱觀金融服務時，我們的金融服務業務中的季節性肯定有點獨特。總的來說，我們實際上覺得它正在遵循我們從損失角度預期的曲線。我們想了一下——試圖回答你關於我們每季的想法的具體問題。我們確實認為從季節性角度來看這看起來很正常。因此，正如您所期望的那樣，第一季是最高的季度，然後您開始看到它在第二季度、第三季度下降，然後在第四季度回升。因此，我們預計全年都會看到這種正常曲線。

As you move that across to what does that mean from an overall loss provision perspective, certainly something for us to watch pretty carefully in terms of a number of dynamics. So as we look at that portfolio, we factor in a whole bunch of characteristics, right? As we think about customer delinquency, the percentage of those customers who end up moving through to loss and some other statistics that surround that. But overall, we feel like that is tracking in the way that we would expect it to. So first quarter looks a little bit more -- a little bit higher as you move into Q2, Q3. You see sort of normalization that follows that period. And then as you flow out of the year, we expect that we're well reserved from an overall loss provision perspective.

當你從整體損失撥備的角度來看這意味著什麼時，我們當然需要在許多動態方面非常仔細地觀察。因此，當我們查看該投資組合時，我們會考慮一大堆特徵，對嗎？當我們考慮客戶拖欠行為時，最終導致損失的客戶的百分比以及與此相關的其他一些統計數據。但總的來說，我們覺得這正在按照我們預期的方式進行。因此，當你進入第二季、第三季時，第一季看起來會更高一些。你會看到那段時期之後出現的某種正常化。然後，當你度過這一年時，我們預計從整體損失撥備的角度來看，我們會做好準備。

So we feel confident with that. And that sort of helps us inform and hold the guidance that we've provided previously for HDFS.

所以我們對此充滿信心。這有助於我們了解並保留我們先前為 HDFS 提供的指導。

Next question comes from Megan Alexander from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的梅根亞歷山大。

Similarly, most of my questions have been answered. So maybe just a bit of a housekeeping one. I know you don't guide EPS. You did have some nice favorability below the line versus at least what I think Street was expecting. So can you help us at all with just kind of how to think about some of those lines, tax rate, interest income going forward? Is 1Q the right run rate for a lot of those? Or was there some timing benefit with any of those? Any help you can give us would be great.

同樣，我的大部分問題都得到了解答。所以也許只是做一些家事工作。我知道你不指導 EPS。你確實在線下獲得了一些不錯的好感，至少與我認為街道所期望的不同。那麼您能否幫助我們思考如何考慮未來的一些額度、稅率、利息收入？對很多人來說，1Q 的運行速度是否合適？或者其中任何一個有一些時間上的好處嗎？您能給我們的任何幫助都會很棒。

Okay. I can start. And Megan, welcome. So I think we're pleased to have you beginning to cover us. So welcome to team Harley-Davidson. As we take a look and we think about the below-the-line items, we certainly had some tax favorability from a Q1 perspective. So as we think a little bit about what that complexion looked like, a little bit of favorability in Q1. We probably won't run quite that favorable from a tax rate perspective all year. So a little bit of caution around that. I think you saw that, that was 2 to 3 points below where we were prior year.

好的。我可以開始了。梅根，歡迎。所以我認為我們很高興您開始報道我們。歡迎加入哈雷戴維森團隊。當我們審視並思考線下專案時，從第一季的角度來看，我們當然有一些稅收優惠。因此，當我們稍微思考一下這種膚色是什麼樣子時，我們對第一季有一點好感。從稅率的角度來看，我們全年的稅率可能不會那麼優惠。所以對此要小心一點。我想您已經看到了，比去年低了 2 到 3 個百分點。

And then as you look at other items within there, certainly, as we think about the assets that we have to support retirement and some of that other sort of thing that ends up in that below-the-line item. Higher interest rates and higher for longer could end up being a little bit more favorable than what we originally budgeted. And so we'll see how that plays out based upon the course of action that the Fed takes. But those are probably the biggest -- kind of the 2 biggest drivers within that space.

然後，當您查看其中的其他項目時，當然，當我們考慮我們必須支持退休的資產以及最終出現在該線下項目中的其他一些東西時。更高的利率和更長的利率最終可能會比我們最初的預算更有利。因此，我們將根據聯準會採取的行動方針看看結果如何。但這些可能是該領域內最大的兩個驅動因素。

And Megan, welcome from my side too. And on behalf of Jonathan, I promise that as of next year, we are giving EPS guidance.

梅根，我這邊也歡迎您。我代表喬納森保證，從明年開始，我們將提供 EPS 指導。

Maybe just to put a finer point on that, I guess, so maybe net-net, the impact to 1Q was neutral and when -- tax rate is going to move in one direction going forward. But the pension stuff might be a little bit more favorable than what you thought?

也許只是為了更詳細地闡述這一點，我想，所以也許淨淨，對第一季度的影響是中性的，並且稅率將朝著一個方向前進。但退休金的事情可能比你想像的要有利一些？

Yes. So we think there could be a little bit of an impact from that standpoint, yes.

是的。所以我們認為從這個角度來看可能會產生一點影響，是的。

Last question will come from Jaime Katz from Morningstar.

最後一個問題將由晨星公司的 Jaime Katz 提出。

I'm hoping you guys can give us a little bit of an update on the change in the operating loss expectation from LiveWire if 1Q was as expected, what is expected to be better over the rest of the year?

我希望你們能為我們提供一些有關 LiveWire 營運虧損預期變化的最新信息，如果第一季符合預期，預計今年剩餘時間會更好嗎？

So with the relocation of the lab from California to Milwaukee, we're going to centralize all of the LiveWire operations in Wisconsin. And this is going to deliver a fair bit of synergies and efficiencies across the business. So we're anticipating being able to remove about 10% of the head count and 15% of the costs related to employees. So all of this will essentially support the revised operating loss, which would be improved by $10 million in terms of guidance for the rest of the year.

因此，隨著實驗室從加州遷至密爾瓦基，我們將把所有 LiveWire 業務集中在威斯康辛州。這將為整個企業帶來相當大的綜效和效率。因此，我們預計能夠減少約 10% 的員工數量和 15% 的與員工相關的成本。因此，所有這些都將在本質上支持修正後的營運虧損，根據今年剩餘時間的指導，虧損將減少 1,000 萬美元。

Okay. And then I know the -- one of the union contracts was just ratified. Is there any information on what we should expect for increased labor costs or anything like that going through the SG&A line over 2024 and ahead?

好的。然後我知道——其中一份工會合約剛剛獲得批准。是否有關於 2024 年及未來 SG&A 線中勞動成本增加或類似情況的資訊？

Well, the contract is more or less in line with what we've planned and hoped for. And overall, we are really pleased that this passed on the first round, which shows really broad alignment with our union leadership and workforce. It's a 5-year contract. So nothing out of the extraordinary that we didn't anticipate. So we are pleased with the outcome.

嗯，這份合約或多或少符合我們的計劃和希望。總的來說，我們非常高興該法案在第一輪中獲得通過，這表明我們與工會領導層和員工隊伍有廣泛的一致性。這是一份為期5年的合約。因此，沒有什麼事情是我們沒有預料到的。所以我們對結果感到滿意。

And with the ratification of our new contract in New York last year and this year now with Wisconsin with Tomahawk and PDC, we are all set for 5 years. So we're very pleased with that outcome. And again, that this vote -- Union vote passed on the first pass, we're very pleased with that. But nothing unexpected, I think -- and that really shows broadly alignment with our union leadership and our workforce, which is great.

隨著去年我們在紐約批准的新合約以及今年與威斯康辛州戰斧和 PDC 簽訂的新合同，我們已經做好了 5 年的準備。所以我們對這個結果非常滿意。再說一次，這次投票——聯盟投票在第一輪就通過了，我們對此感到非常高興。但我認為這並不令人意外——這確實表明了我們與工會領導層和員工隊伍的廣泛一致，這很棒。

We have no further questions. This will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

我們沒有其他問題了。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。