Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Harley-Davidson 2023 Third Quarter Investor and Analyst Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加哈雷戴維森 2023 年第三季投資者和分析師電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to Shawn Collins. Thank you. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給肖恩柯林斯。謝謝。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning. This is Shawn Collins, the Director of Investor Relations at Harley-Davidson. You can access the slides supporting today's call on the Internet at the Harley-Davidson Investor Relations website.

謝謝。早安.我是肖恩‧柯林斯 (Shawn Collins)，哈雷戴維森投資者關係總監。您可以在哈雷戴維森投資者關係網站上存取支援今天電話會議的幻燈片。

As you might expect, our comments will include forward-looking statements that are subject to business risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted in today's earnings release and our latest filings with the SEC.

正如您所料，我們的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能會受到商業風險的影響，可能導致實際結果產生重大差異。這些風險包括我們在今天的收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件中指出的事項等。

With that, joining me this morning for the first part of the call are Harley Davidson Chief Executive Officer, Jochen Zeitz; also Chief Financial Officer, Jonathan Root; and LiveWire CEO, Karim Donnez. In addition, for the Q&A portion of today's call, Harley Davidson Chief Commercial Officer, Edel O’Sullivan, will be joining us as she usually does.

今天早上與我一起參加電話會議第一部分的是哈雷戴維森執行長 Jochen Zeitz；兼任財務長 Jonathan Root；以及 LiveWire 首席執行官 Karim Donnez。此外，哈雷戴維森首席商務官 Edel OâSullivan 將像往常一樣參加我們今天電話會議的問答部分。

With that, let me turn it over to our CEO, Jochen Zeitz. Jochen?

接下來，讓我將其交給我們的執行長 Jochen Zeitz。約亨？

Thank you, Shawn, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for Harley Davidson and LiveWire's Q3 results. I will start with an overview of the HDMC business for the quarter. Karim will then provide commentary on LiveWire, and Jonathan will run out the financials for HDI, including HDFS, before we go into questions.

謝謝你，肖恩，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們，了解哈雷戴維森和 LiveWire 第三季的業績。我將首先概述本季的 HDMC 業務。然後，卡里姆 (Karim) 將在 LiveWire 上發表評論，喬納森 (Jonathan) 將在我們提出問題之前詳細介紹包括 HDFS 在內的 HDI 的財務狀況。

As we closed out the third quarter of '23, it is clear that the macroeconomic backdrop has been a challenge for our customers globally and in turn for our business, with both inflationary pressures creating affordability challenges and high interest rates contributing to slower upgrade pipeline.

當我們結束 23 年第三季時，很明顯，宏觀經濟背景對我們的全球客戶以及我們的業務構成了挑戰，通貨膨脹壓力造成了負擔能力挑戰，高利率導致升級管道放緩。

We've continued to work through the effects of the unplanned production suspension in June and July, which impacted Q3 by delaying the availability of some of our high-demand products as well as altering our inventory mix, especially in North America.

我們繼續努力解決 6 月和 7 月計劃外停產的影響，該停產推遲了一些高需求產品的供應以及改變了我們的庫存結構，特別是在北美，從而影響了第三季度。

Given this complex environment, we continue to focus on the execution of our 5-year strategic plan. Results for the quarter reflect a revenue decline of 9% at HDMC, partially offset by revenue growth of 15% at HDFS, contributing to an overall revenue decline of 6% for the quarter. This performance was driven by a 20% decline in wholesales due to the production suspension announced in late Q2, prudent dealer inventory management, and market conditions in line with our latest guidance. This was partially offset by both higher pricing and mix.

面對複雜的環境，我們持續專注於五年策略規劃的執行。本季業績反映 HDMC 營收下降 9%，部分被 HDFS 營收成長 15% 所抵消，導致本季整體營收下降 6%。這項業績的推動因素是，由於第二季末宣布的停產、謹慎的經銷商庫存管理以及符合我們最新指引的市場狀況，批發量下降了 20%。這被較高的定價和產品組合部分抵消。

Q3 year-to-date revenue for HDMC is up 2.1% despite the challenging conditions of the year.

儘管今年的情況充滿挑戰，HDMC 今年第三季迄今的營收仍成長了 2.1%。

I want to provide a few more specifics behind these figures, taking into consideration both our Hardwire strategy as well as the realities of our sector right now.

我想提供這些數字背後的更多細節，同時考慮到我們的硬線策略以及我們行業目前的現實。

Firstly, our Hardwire strategy prioritizes our stronghold categories of Touring, Softail, Trike and CVO. The premium segment has been disproportionately impacted this year as affordability and discretionary spend have become more of a concern and as macroeconomic conditions have slowed down the upgrade cycle in these categories, particularly in a long-running platform like Rushmore and Touring. It is important to note, however, that we continue to enjoy market-leading economics and more than 70% share in these highly desirable and profitable categories in North America.

首先，我們的硬線策略優先考慮我們的據點類別：旅行車、軟尾車、三輪車和 CVO。高端細分市場今年受到了不成比例的影響，因為負擔能力和可自由支配支出變得更加令人擔憂，而且宏觀經濟狀況減緩了這些類別的升級週期，特別是在Rushmore 和Touring 等長期運行的平台中。然而，值得注意的是，我們繼續享有市場領先的經濟效益，並且在北美這些非常受歡迎且利潤豐厚的類別中佔有超過 70% 的份額。

We believe that customer desire for Harley-Davidson Touring bike, the pinnacle of motorcycling, remains undiminished despite the well-entrenched narratives to the contrary, and that both differentiation and a compelling value proposition can drive growth even in a challenging market.

我們相信，儘管相反的說法根深蒂固，但客戶對哈雷戴維森旅行自行車（摩托車巔峰之作）的渴望仍然沒有減弱，而且即使在充滿挑戰的市場中，差異化和引人注目的價值主張也可以推動增長。

Secondly, our retail volume in North America in particular has been adversely affected by the sunsetting of our legacy Sportster, which was a share builder in the cruiser category. We believe our RevMax platform introduced in '21 to be both unique and tech forward and that the platform when positioned competitively has the potential for customer adoption to grow over time.

其次，我們在北美的零售量尤其受到了我們傳統Sportster（巡洋艦類別股票建造者）的衰落的不利影響。我們相信我們在 21 年推出的 RevMax 平台既獨特又技術先進，並且該平台在定位具有競爭力時具有隨著時間的推移客戶採用率不斷增長的潛力。

Thirdly, we remain focused on managing inventory our dealer channel to protect desirability and long-term profitability. Given overall market conditions, we've acted throughout the year to manage overall inventory levels within these constraints of manufacturing realities.

第三，我們仍然專注於管理經銷商通路的庫存，以保護需求和長期獲利能力。考慮到整體市場狀況，我們全年採取行動，在製造現實的限制範圍內管理整體庫存水準。

It is important to note that the production suspension late in Q2 created challenges to our timing, mix and distribution of inventory in the channel, which we also worked to address throughout the quarter. It is also worth noting that as we finished '23 production at the end of last week, we believe current inventory and any remaining shipments for this year's product will support retail volume throughout Q4 and early in '24.

值得注意的是，第二季末的生產暫停對我們在通路中庫存的時間安排、組合和分配造成了挑戰，我們也在整個季度努力解決這個問題。另外值得注意的是，由於我們在上週末完成了 23 年的生產，我們相信今年產品的當前庫存和任何剩餘發貨量將支持整個第四季度和 24 年初的零售量。

We also recognize that the market conditions where demand is more uneven requires us to operate at inventory levels that are higher than what we saw in '21 and '22.

我們也認識到，需求更加不平衡的市場狀況要求我們以高於 21 和 22 年的庫存水準運作。

Lastly, we've increased our marketing and promotional spend to both support our loyal customers and dealers in a challenging environment and manage inventory mix against our strategic objectives, particularly with product arriving later in the year. While this spend is higher than in both '21 and '22, it's important to note that this investment is targeted, limited and balanced across traffic driving and support for closing deals. We've seen this yield many learnings and better alignment with our dealer network.

最後，我們增加了行銷和促銷支出，以在充滿挑戰的環境中為我們的忠實客戶和經銷商提供支持，並根據我們的策略目標管理庫存組合，特別是在今年稍後到達的產品。雖然這筆支出高於 21 世紀和 22 世紀，但值得注意的是，這項投資是有針對性的、有限的，並且在流量驅動和支援達成交易方面是平衡的。我們已經看到這帶來了許多經驗教訓，並與我們的經銷商網路更好地保持一致。

Despite the many challenges of the year, there are significant highlights to share. Firstly, our CVOs have been very well-received in the market with sales in the category up 25% versus prior year and demonstrating strong sell-through. Our dealers and customers are excited by the evolution this product demonstrated in the most exclusive category in our lineup.

儘管今年面臨諸多挑戰，但仍有一些重大亮點值得分享。首先，我們的 CVO 在市場上非常受歡迎，該類別的銷售額比去年增長了 25%，並表現出強勁的銷售能力。我們的經銷商和客戶對該產品在我們產品線中最獨特的類別中所展示的演變感到興奮。

Secondly, both our combined Trike and Softails are also demonstrating retail growth, up 12% for the year at the end of Q3. We are actively expanding capacity for our Trike offering while driving more production to our hottest models with breakout in the Softail category being a good example of this. Both these examples demonstrate that, even through difficult conditions, a compelling offer coupled with a strong value proposition can drive growth.

其次，我們合併後的三輪車和軟尾車也展現零售成長，截至第三季末全年成長 12%。我們正在積極擴大三輪車產品的產能，同時推動我們最熱門車型的產量增加，而軟尾車類別的突破就是一個很好的例子。這兩個例子都表明，即使在困難的條件下，令人信服的報價加上強大的價值主張也可以推動成長。

Through the quarter, all global regions continue to show strong profit, the most powerful dealer board in all of powersports and remains a critical competitive advantage to drive growth, manage inventory and support our customer experience. Before I hand it over to Karim, Harley-Davidson remains committed to its hardwire strategy with a focus on both profitability and desirability, and we will do everything possible to achieve our goals.

整個季度，全球所有地區都繼續表現出強勁的利潤，成為所有動力運動領域最強大的經銷商委員會，並且仍然是推動成長、管理庫存和支持我們的客戶體驗的關鍵競爭優勢。在我將其交給卡里姆之前，哈雷戴維森仍然致力於其硬線戰略，重點關注盈利能力和需求，我們將盡一切可能實現我們的目標。

That said, we're certainly realistic that current market conditions are challenging, but we'll continue to focus on what we can control, including scrutinization of our OpEx and focusing on cost productivity gains.

也就是說，我們確實意識到當前的市場狀況充滿挑戰，但我們將繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情，包括審查我們的營運支出並專注於成本生產力的提高。

Thank you, Jochen. Good morning, everyone. Q3 saw many important developments for LiveWire as we continue to advance our product portfolio and build out our commercial footprint. Most importantly, we started production of the Del Mar at the Harley Davidson factory in York, Pennsylvania. This is an important milestone for LiveWire after a multiyear investment in the S2 platform and the in-house development of the LiveWire back pack, motor, power electronics and software.

謝謝你，喬亨。大家，早安。隨著我們繼續推進我們的產品組合併擴大我們的商業足跡，第三季 LiveWire 見證了許多重要的發展。最重要的是，我們開始在賓州約克市的哈雷戴維森工廠生產 Del Mar。這是 LiveWire 在 S2 平台投資多年以及 LiveWire 背包、電機、電力電子和軟體的內部開發之後的一個重要里程碑。

We believe these investments have given us an industry-leading technology and the capability to rapidly adapt and advance the S2 platform while reducing LiveWire dependency on third-party suppliers.

我們相信這些投資為我們提供了業界領先的技術以及快速適應和推進 S2 平台的能力，同時減少 LiveWire 對第三方供應商的依賴。

Our early customers have now started to receive their Del Mar and the bikes are on the road in the U.S. Those riders that have experienced Del Mar are impressed by how the bike delivers on the LiveWire products with outstanding specs and a more accessible price point. With production now ramping up, we expect to see increasing volumes in Q4 as we get more bikes to more customers.

我們的早期客戶現在開始收到他們的 Del Mar，這些自行車已在美國上路。那些體驗過 Del Mar 的騎手對這款自行車在 LiveWire 產品上的出色​​規格和更實惠的價格印象深刻。隨著產量的增加，我們預計第四季度的銷售量將會增加，因為我們向更多客戶提供了更多自行車。

We recently announced European pricing for the Del Mar, confirmed delivery days in Q1 2024, and opened reservations. 2 weeks ago, we hosted media and influencers from across the European market at a Del Mar press event in Barcelona, building early momentum for the spring riding season.

我們最近宣布了 Del Mar 的歐洲定價，確認了 2024 年第一季的交付日期，並開放了預訂。兩週前，我們在巴塞隆納舉行的 Del Mar 新聞發布會上接待了來自整個歐洲市場的媒體和有影響力的人士，為春季騎行季節建立了早期勢頭。

Our development teams are working hard to leverage the existing StaCyc and LiveWire platforms to expand the Group's portfolio and bring more options to more riders.

我們的開發團隊正在努力利用現有的 StaCyc 和 LiveWire 平台來擴展集團的產品組合，並為更多騎士帶來更多選擇。

As we look to the end of the fiscal year, our cash investments are in line with our plan. We also expect to meet our most recent guidance based on demand and current daily production output.

展望本財年末，我們的現金投資符合我們的計劃。我們還希望能夠滿足基於需求和當前日產量的最新指引。

Thank you. And now I'll hand it over to Jonathan.

謝謝。現在我將把它交給喬納森。

Thank you, Karim, and good morning, everyone. The third quarter of 2023 is the fourth time under our new reporting structure with the 3 business segments of HDMC, HDFS and LiveWire.

謝謝你，卡里姆，大家早安。 2023 年第三季是我們第四次採用新的報告架構，涵蓋 HDMC、HDFS 和 LiveWire 3 個業務部門。

In Q3, global wholesale shipments decreased by 20%, as Jochen referenced earlier, due to the production suspension announced in late Q2, prudent dealer inventory management, and market conditions, in line with our latest guidance. In addition, we comped a very strong growth quarter that was up 19% in 2022. From a Q3 revenue standpoint, improved global pricing and our continued focus on core motorcycle mix of Touring and Cruiser motorcycles were able to partially offset the unit decline. This enabled us to turn in a consistent margin performance on a year-to-date basis.

正如 Jochen 之前提到的，由於第二季末宣布的生產暫停、謹慎的經銷商庫存管理以及市場狀況，第三季全球批發貨量下降了 20%，這與我們的最新指導一致。此外，我們的季度成長非常強勁，2022 年成長了19%。從第三季收入的角度來看，全球定價的改善以及我們對旅行和巡洋艦摩托車核心摩托車組合的持續關注能夠​​部分抵消銷售下降。這使我們能夠在年初至今實現穩定的利潤率表現。

Turning to our financial results in the third quarter, total consolidated HDI revenue of $1.5 billion was down 6% compared to last year. The breakdown was, at HDMC, revenue declined by 9%; at HDFS, revenue grew by 15%; and at LiveWire, revenue declined by 45%.

轉向我們第三季的財務業績，HDI 綜合收入總額為 15 億美元，比去年下降 6%。具體來看，HDMC 的營收下降了 9%； HDFS 的營收成長了 15%； LiveWire 的營收下降了 45%。

Total consolidated HDI operating income was $209 million, which was $129 million lower than the prior year. The breakdown was: at HDMC, operating income of $175 million was 37% lower than the prior year. At HDFS, operating income of $59 million declined by 27% on a year-over-year basis. And at LiveWire, an operating loss of $25 million was in line with our expectations.

綜合 HDI 營業收入總額為 2.09 億美元，較上年減少 1.29 億美元。明細如下：HDMC 的營業收入為 1.75 億美元，較上年下降 37%。 HDFS 的營業收入為 5,900 萬美元，年減 27%。 LiveWire 的營運虧損為 2,500 萬美元，符合我們的預期。

Third quarter earnings per share of $1.38 is down 22% as a result of the factors noted.

由於上述因素，第三季每股收益為 1.38 美元，下降了 22%。

As we look at our year-to-date results, total consolidated HDI revenue of $4.8 billion was up 4% compared to the same period last year. The breakdown of this was: at HDMC, revenue increased by 2%; at HDFS, revenue grew by 17%; and at LiveWire, revenue declined by 39%.

從今年迄今的業績來看，HDI 綜合收入總額為 48 億美元，與去年同期相比成長了 4%。具體如下： HDMC 的營收成長了 2%； HDFS 的營收成長了 17%； LiveWire 的營收下降了 39%。

Total consolidated HDI operating income was $800 million, which is $105 million lower than the prior year. The breakdown of this was: at HDMC, operating income of $705 million compares to $709 million in the prior year's period, reflecting a strong operating margin of 17.4% in 2023 year-to-date. At HDFS, operating income of $177 million declined by 30%. And at LiveWire, an operating loss of $82 million was in line with our expectations.

綜合 HDI 營業收入總額為 8 億美元，比前一年減少 1.05 億美元。具體情況如下：HDMC 的營業收入為 7.05 億美元，而去年同期為 7.09 億美元，反映了 2023 年迄今 17.4% 的強勁營業利潤率。 HDFS 的營業收入為 1.77 億美元，下降了 30%。 LiveWire 的營運虧損為 8,200 萬美元，符合我們的預期。

Year-to-date earnings per share of $4.65 compares to $4.68 last year.

今年迄今每股收益為 4.65 美元，去年為 4.68 美元。

Global retail sales of new motorcycles were down 16% versus the prior year. In North America, Q3 retail sales declined by 15%, driven by the impact of a high interest rate environment on consumer discretionary purchase decisions. In addition, the discontinuation of legacy Sportster bikes at the end of 2022 continues to have an adverse impact on noncore unit sales. In EMEA, Q3 retail sales declined by 13%, driven by the planned unit mix shift towards profitable core product segments. Core bikes now comprise 80% of sales, up from 70% in 2022. In Q3, Touring bikes were up 10% versus prior year.

全球新摩托車零售量較前一年下降 16%。在北美，由於高利率環境對消費者非必需品購買決策的影響，第三季零售額下降了15%。此外，傳統 Sportster 自行車將於 2022 年底停產，並繼續對非核心銷售產生不利影響。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，由於計劃的單位組合轉向盈利的核心產品領域，第三季零售額下降了 13%。核心自行車目前佔銷量的 80%，高於 2022 年的 70%。第三季度，旅行自行車比去年同期成長了 10%。

In Asia Pacific, Q3 retail sales declined by 24% versus prior year, which is down sequentially relative to Q2 '23 when retail sales were up 24%. The weakness in Asia Pacific was primarily driven by weaker-than-expected demand in China where the Chinese economy was softer than we had expected. In Latin America, Q3 retail sales declined by 11%, driven by weakness in Brazil, that was partially offset by growth in Mexico.

在亞太地區，第三季零售額比去年同期下降了 24%，與 2023 年第二季零售額成長 24% 相比季減。亞太地區的疲軟主要是由於中國的需求弱於預期，中國經濟比我們預期的疲軟。在拉丁美洲，受巴西疲軟推動，第三季零售額下降 11%，但墨西哥的成長部分抵消了下降。

Beneath the surface of our Q3 retail results, we note that the production suspension that we experienced for several weeks in June and July of 2023 had an adverse impact on retail sales, particularly in the key North American market. It delayed deliveries in high-demand units to the end of Q3 rather than earlier in the season. It also created challenges in the distribution and mix of the inventory in the channel. This held back our preferred motorcycle mix versus what we had expected.

從第三季零售業績的表面來看，我們注意到 2023 年 6 月和 7 月經歷的數週停產對零售額產生了不利影響，特別是在主要的北美市場。它將高需求單位的交付推遲到第三季末，而不是本季早些時候。它也給渠道中的庫存分配和混合帶來了挑戰。這阻礙了我們首選的摩托車組合與我們的預期。

On a year-over-year basis, average inventory in Q3 was up by more than 50% to broaden product availability, compared to the exceptionally tight levels of 2021 and 2022. Dealer inventory continues to be down versus 2019 levels. We believe current dealer inventory plus remaining 2023 calendar year shipments will support the rest of Q4 and early Q1 of 2024.

與 2021 年和 2022 年異常緊張的水平相比，第三季度的平均庫存同比增長了 50% 以上，以擴大產品供應。經銷商庫存與 2019 年的水平相比繼續下降。我們認為，目前經銷商庫存加上 2023 年剩餘出貨量將支撐第四季剩餘時間和 2024 年第一季初。

From a retail pricing standpoint, new Harley-Davidson motorcycle transaction prices in the U.S. year-to-date have been broadly in line with our desirability threshold of plus or minus 2 percentage points of MSRP.

從零售定價的角度來看，今年迄今，美國新哈雷戴維森摩托車的交易價格與我們建議零售價正負 2 個百分點的期望門檻大致一致。

At the HDMC segment, revenue declined by 9% due to lower wholesale units shipped in Q3. Wholesale units were down 20% in Q3. Looking at the HDMC revenue bridge and focusing on the key drivers for the quarter, 18 points of decline came from decreased volume at HDMC, which was primarily driven by the previously mentioned decrease in the wholesale motorcycle unit shipments. 3 points of growth came from pricing through both global MSRP increases and pricing across the parts and accessories and apparel and licensing businesses. Mix contributed 6 points of growth as we continue to prioritize our most profitable models and markets. And finally, foreign exchange was flat in Q3.

在 HDMC 領域，由於第三季批發出貨量減少，營收下降了 9%。第三季批發量下降了 20%。縱觀 HDMC 收入橋樑並關注本季度的主要驅動因素，下降 18 個百分點來自 HDMC 銷量下降，這主要是由於前面提到的批發摩托車單位出貨量下降所致。 3 個成長點來自於全球建議零售價上漲以及零件、服裝和授權業務的定價。隨著我們繼續優先考慮最有利可圖的模式和市場，混合貢獻了 6 個成長點。最後，第三季外匯交易持平。

At HDMC, operating income of $175 million in Q3 was 6.1 points lower than prior year, driven by lower wholesale shipments and higher operating expenses. HDMC gross margin in Q3 was 31.7%, which compares to 34.4% in the prior year. The decline of 2.7 points or 270 basis points was driven by the negative impact of lower volumes, unfavorable manufacturing impacts and foreign currency more than offsetting the positive impacts from pricing and shipment mix.

HDMC 第三季的營業收入為 1.75 億美元，比去年同期下降 6.1 個百分點，原因是批發出貨量減少和營業費用增加。 HDMC 第三季的毛利率為 31.7%，去年同期為 34.4%。下降 2.7 個基點或 270 個基點是由於銷售下降、不利的製造業影響和外匯的負面影響，這些影響遠遠抵消了定價和運輸組合的正面影響。

We experienced more modest cost inflation, which was approximately 1% in Q3. On a year-over-year basis, the deceleration continues to be largely driven by logistics, including lower expedited shipping expenses and favorable ocean freight rates. Raw materials and metal markets have also continued to moderate.

我們經歷了較溫和的成本通膨，第三季約為 1%。與去年同期相比，減速仍然主要是由物流推動的，包括較低的加急運輸費用和有利的海運費用。原料和金屬市場也持續溫和。

HDMC operating margin came in at 13.5% in Q3 from 19.6% in the prior year. The decrease was due to higher operating expense, including higher people costs and marketing spend. For the year-to-date period at HDMC, operating income of $705 million compares to $709 million of operating income in the prior period. HDMC operating margin of 17.4% in the year-to-date period is approximately 50 basis points lower than the prior period. The small decrease is due to the negative effects of volume, foreign currency, supply chain costs and higher operating expense, offset by the positive effects of higher pricing and improved mix.

HDMC 第三季營業利益率為 13.5%，而去年同期為 19.6%。下降的原因是營運費用增加，包括人員成本和行銷支出增加。 HDMC 今年迄今的營業收入為 7.05 億美元，而上一時期的營業收入為 7.09 億美元。 HDMC 今年迄今的營業利益率為 17.4%，比上一期低約 50 個基點。小幅下降是由於銷售量、外匯、供應鏈成本和較高營運費用的負面影響，但被較高定價和改善產品組合的正面影響所抵消。

At Harley-Davidson Financial Services, revenue increased by 15%, driven by higher finance receivables and higher interest income. HDFS operating income in Q3 was $59 million, down 27% compared to last year. The Q3 decline was driven by higher borrowing costs as well as higher provision for credit losses due to realized credit losses and an increase in the credit reserves.

在哈雷戴維森金融服務公司，由於財務應收帳款和利息收入增加，收入增加了 15%。 HDFS第三季營業收入為5,900萬美元，較去年下降27%。第三季的下降是由於借貸成本上升以及因已實現的信貸損失和信貸準備金增加而導致的信貸損失準備金增加所致。

In Q3, HDFS's annualized retail credit loss ratio came in at 2.7%, which compares to 2.6% in Q2 of this year. During the quarter, losses followed their typical seasonality curve, with performance in line with expectations. These levels compare to an annualized loss of 1.9% in full year 2022. The increase in credit losses was driven by several factors relating to the current macroeconomic environment. In addition, the allowance for credit losses for the third quarter increased to 5.4%, up from 5.3% in Q2 and from 5.1% during fiscal 2022.

第三季度，HDFS 的年化零售信貸損失率為 2.7%，今年第二季為 2.6%。本季度，虧損遵循典型的季節性曲線，業績符合預期。相較之下，2022 年全年年化損失為 1.9%。信貸損失的增加是由與當前宏觀經濟環境相關的多個因素所推動的。此外，第三季的信貸損失準備金增加至 5.4%，高於第二季的 5.3% 和 2022 財年的 5.1%。

Total retail loan originations in Q3 were down 15%, while commercial lending receivables were up 39% to $1.05 billion, behind stronger product availability compared to prior year. Total quarter-end net financing receivables including both retail loans and commercial lending receivables, was $7.7 billion, which was up 4% versus prior year. Total interest expense in Q3 was up $23 million or up 38% versus prior year. The increase was driven by higher cost of funds as lower interest rate debt matured and was replaced with current market rate debt.

第三季零售貸款發放總額下降了 15%，而商業貸款應收帳款成長了 39%，達到 10.5 億美元，這背後的原因是產品供應量比去年同期更加強勁。季末融資應收帳款淨額總額（包括零售貸款和商業貸款應收帳款）為 77 億美元，比上年增加 4%。第三季的總利息支出比去年同期增加了 2,300 萬美元，即 38%。這一增長是由於較低利率債務到期並被當前市場利率債務取代而導致資金成本上升所致。

Through the end of Q3, we raised approximately $2.5 billion in the capital markets. Cash and committed bank and conduit facilities resulted in an HDFS liquidity position of $2.5 billion. We believe this has put HDFS in a very strong position from both a funding and liquidity perspective.

截至第三季末，我們在資本市場籌集了約 25 億美元。現金以及承諾的銀行和管道設施使 HDFS 的流動性頭寸達到 25 億美元。我們相信，從資金和流動性的角度來看，這使得 HDFS 處於非常有利的地位。

For the LiveWire segment, third quarter revenue decreased from $15 million to $8 million versus prior year due to the lower unit sales of LiveWire 1 electric motorcycles and StaCyc electric balance bikes.

對於 LiveWire 部門，由於 LiveWire 1 電動摩托車和 StaCyc 電動平衡自行車的銷量下降，第三季營收較上年同期從 1,500 萬美元下降至 800 萬美元。

During the third quarter of 2023, LiveWire began shipping Del Mar, the first motorcycle on the company's S2 platform. LiveWire operating loss of $25 million was in line with expectations and driven by planned development costs to advance EV systems, activities around Del Mar, and cost of standing up a new organization. Third quarter also saw a sequential decrease in LiveWire's operating loss of $7 million as compared to the second quarter of 2023.

2023 年第三季度，LiveWire 開始出貨 Del Mar，這是該公司 S2 平台上的第一款摩托車。 LiveWire 營運虧損 2500 萬美元符合預期，主要由推進電動車系統的計畫開發成本、德爾馬週邊活動以及建立新組織的成本推動。與 2023 年第二季相比，第三季 LiveWire 的營運虧損也較上季減少了 700 萬美元。

Wrapping up with Harley-Davidson Inc.'s financial results. Year-to-date, we delivered $707 million of operating cash flow, which was up $132 million from the prior year. The increase in operating cash flow was due to positive working capital activity driven by a larger decrease in inventory in the first 9 months of 2023 versus the same period in 2022.

總結哈雷戴維森公司的財務表現。年初至今，我們實現了 7.07 億美元的營運現金流，比前一年增加了 1.32 億美元。營運現金流的增加是由於 2023 年前 9 個月庫存較 2022 年同期大幅減少，推動了積極的營運資本活動。

Total cash and cash equivalents ended at $1.9 billion, which was $148 million higher than at the end of Q3 prior year. This consolidated cash number includes $200 million from LiveWire.

現金和現金等價物總額最終達到 19 億美元，比去年第三季末增加 1.48 億美元。這一綜合現金數字包括來自 LiveWire 的 2 億美元。

Additionally, during the first 9 months of 2023, as part of our capital allocation strategy, we bought back 6.1 million shares of our stock at a value of $226 million.

此外，在 2023 年前 9 個月，作為我們資本配置策略的一部分，我們回購了 610 萬股股票，價值 2.26 億美元。

As we look to the rest of 2023, we are reaffirming our most recent full year guidance, which expects HDMC revenue growth of flat to plus 3%, HDMC operating income margin of 13.9% to 14.3%. We continue to believe the anticipated positive impacts from pricing and our cost productivity efforts within supply chain will offset expected cost inflation and currency headwinds.

展望 2023 年剩餘時間，我們重申了最新的全年指引，預計 HDMC 營收成長持平至 3%，HDMC 營業利潤率為 13.9% 至 14.3%。我們仍然相信，定價和我們在供應鏈中的成本生產力努力所帶來的預期正面影響將抵消預期的成本通膨和貨幣不利因素。

At HDFS, we continue to expect operating income to decline by 20% to 25%. In Q3, we experienced higher realized credit losses than in Q2 as seasonality played out as we had expected. We continue to stay focused on several actions underway to effectively manage the business in today's credit environment, including increased investments behind collections and stronger repossession efforts. And we continue to build other revenue sources such as licensing and trademark revenue and insurance revenue, which continues to exceed that from the same period in prior year.

對於 HDFS，我們繼續預期營業收入將下降 20% 至 25%。在第三季度，我們經歷了比第二季度更高的已實現信貸損失，因為季節性正如我們預期的那樣。我們繼續關注正在採取的多項行動，以在當今的信貸環境中有效管理業務，包括增加催收背後的投資和加強收回工作。我們繼續建立其他收入來源，例如許可證和商標收入以及保險收入，繼續超過去年同期。

LiveWire continues to expect unit sales between 600 units and 1,000 units and an operating loss range of $115 million to $125 million. This forecast incorporates the updated launch timing of the new Del Mar electric motorcycle.

LiveWire 繼續預計銷量將在 600 台至 1,000 台之間，營業虧損將在 1.15 億美元至 1.25 億美元之間。該預測包含了新款 Del Mar 電動摩托車的最新發佈時間。

And lastly, for total HDI, we continue to expect capital investments of $225 million to $250 million as we continue to invest behind product development and capability enhancements. Through the first 9 months of the year, we have seen cost inflation generally in line with our expectations and continue to expect in aggregate about 1 to 2 points of inflation for the full year of 2023, compared to 4% in 2022. Labor and warehousing costs continue to be the primary drivers of inflation, with deflation and moderation expected within logistics, freight and raw materials.

最後，對於總 HDI，隨著我們繼續投資於產品開發和能力增強，我們預計資本投資將達到 2.25 億至 2.5 億美元。今年前 9 個月，我們發現成本通膨總體符合我們的預期，並繼續預期 2023 年全年通膨率總計約為 1 至 2 個點，而 2022 年為 4%。勞動力和倉儲成本仍然是通膨的主要驅動因素，預計物流、貨運和原料領域將出現通貨緊縮和放緩。

We now expect $70 million of cost productivity in 2023 as a result of the updated production environment. This is down from an estimate of $100 million at the end of Q2. For HDFS, we expect the operating income declines to moderate in the last quarter of the year as we begin to comp the interest rate increases and normalizing losses that began in late 2022.

現在，由於生產環境的更新，我們預計 2023 年的成本生產力將達到 7,000 萬美元。這低於第二季末預計的 1 億美元。對於 HDFS，我們預計，隨著我們開始補償 2022 年底開始的利率上漲和正常化損失，營業收入將在今年最後一季放緩。

As we look at capital allocation for the remainder of 2023, our priorities remain to fund growth of the Hardwire initiatives, which includes the capital expenditures mentioned previously, paying dividends and executing discretionary share repurchases.

當我們考慮 2023 年剩餘時間的資本分配時，我們的首要任務仍然是為 Hardwire 計劃的增長提供資金，其中包括前面提到的資本支出、支付股息和執行酌情股票回購。

In summary, we are pleased with the resiliency of our financial results, especially our margin performance, despite a complex retail environment. And with that, I'll turn it back to the operator to take your questions. Thank you.

總之，儘管零售環境複雜，但我們對財務表現的彈性感到滿意，尤其是我們的利潤率表現。然後，我會將其轉回接線員以回答您的問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Craig Kennison from Baird.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Baird 的 Craig Kennison。

Between retail sales and your HDFS portfolio, you have very good insight into the areas of stress the consumer is facing today. I'm just wondering how you would describe the U.S. consumer today at various income levels and credit tiers. And then what the key pages of your recession playbook might be if we indeed enter a recession in '24.

透過零售銷售和您的 HDFS 產品組合，您可以很好地洞察消費者當今面臨的壓力領域。我只是想知道您如何描述當今不同收入水平和信用等級的美國消費者。如果我們確實在 24 年進入經濟衰退，那麼你的經濟衰退手冊的關鍵內容可能是什麼？

Thank you for your question. I think we see some of the elements that you are describing around consumer health show up in a couple of different metrics. We certainly, in the first place, see a lot of customers sitting on the sidelines, essentially just putting this level of a discretionary purchase to the side in 2023, which obviously, for us, a business that is very much dependent upon an upgrade cycle as certain regularity is quite a meaningful impact. That, I think, is the first factor. We have understanding of that through market research of just customers sort of putting a purchase of this nature out of their mind in a year like 2023.

謝謝你的問題。我認為我們看到您所描述的有關消費者健康的一些要素出現在幾個不同的指標中。首先，我們當然看到很多客戶持觀望態度，基本上只是在 2023 年將這種可自由支配的購買放在一邊，這顯然對我們來說是一個非常依賴升級週期的業務因為某些規律性是相當有意義的影響。我認為這是第一個因素。透過對客戶的市場調查，我們了解到這一點，在 2023 年這樣的一年裡，他們已經不再考慮購買這種性質的產品了。

Secondly, you see a lot of customers, maybe even those with high credit worthiness, looking at the level of the rates and saying that -- having a certain amount of rate shock, and saying, we are not going to pay those level of rates, based also on many years and many decades of lower rates. That's about the second place where it shows us.

其次，你會看到很多客戶，甚至可能是那些信用度很高的客戶，在查看利率水準後表示，受到一定程度的利率衝擊，並表示，我們不會支付這些水準的利率，也是基於多年和幾十年的較低利率。這是它向我們展示的第二個地方。

And then the third level is potentially for our more credit-challenged customers or customers at a different income level, potentially a little bit lower. Just looking at the monthly payment that results, particularly when you consider a trade-in that might be worth a little bit less given what was paid for it in '21 and '22, not seeing the ability to really add to their monthly payment to manage an upgrade or a new motorcycle purchase. It's just a limit of affordability within their month-to-month budget.

第三個等級可能是針對我們信用問題較多的客戶或收入水準不同（可能稍低）的客戶。只是看看由此產生的每月付款，特別是當您考慮到以舊換新的價值可能會比 21 和 22 年支付的價格低一點時，看不到真正增加每月付款的能力管理升級或購買新摩托車。這只是他們每月預算內承受能力的限制。

So it is prevalent in a couple of different places, just people sitting this year out, people not willing to pay those rates, and then just difficulty potentially in reaching the monthly payment. I'll let Jonathan in a minute comment a little bit more on the health of the customer.

因此，這種情況在幾個不同的地方很普遍，只是人們今年坐在外面，人們不願意支付這些費用，然後就可能難以達到每月付款。稍後我將讓喬納森對顧客的健康狀況進行更多評論。

But to your second point around our recession playbook, our recession playbook is very much rooted in our strategy, which is we intend to continue to defend and protect the most important and profitable categories for our business, our stronghold categories of Touring, Trike, CVO and Softail. As Jochen mentioned in his commentary, even in a difficult year like this one, we have seen that where we have a stronger value proposition, product innovation, we see relatively stronger performance. So that intend to continue emphasizing innovation and development in those stronghold categories.

但關於我們的經濟衰退策略的第二點，我們的經濟衰退策略很大程度上植根於我們的策略，即我們打算繼續捍衛和保護我們業務最重要和最有利可圖的類別，即我們的旅遊、三輪車、CVO 等大本營類別和軟尾。正如喬亨在評論中提到的，即使在像今年這樣困難的一年，我們也看到，只要我們有更強的價值主張、產品創新，我們就能看到相對更強的表現。因此，打算繼續強調這些據點類別的創新和發展。

We will continue to work with HDFS and with our dealers who are the best in the business, with the right tools to put in the market to be able to make each and every customer that is interested in a motorcycle, be able to find the right combination of factors and the right bikes for them, and continue to lose other important aspects of our business like used motorcycles like P&A and A&L to make sure that consumers are still flowing to the dealerships and still have the opportunity to engage with our brand even in a recessionary environment.

我們將繼續與 HDFS 以及業內最優秀的經銷商合作，將合適的工具投入市場，以便能夠讓每位對摩托車感興趣的客戶都能找到合適的產品綜合因素和適合他們的自行車，並繼續失去我們業務的其他重要方面，例如P&A 和A&L 等二手摩托車，以確保消費者仍然流向經銷店，並且即使在經濟衰退的環境中。

Before Jonathan takes on, just in terms of recession playbook. Obviously, we are going to take a hard look at OpEx and cost productivity. I think those are 2 areas where we have room for improvement given the developments in the market. And obviously, we know that in the last couple of years, cost productivity due to the inflationary pressures we've seen has declined, and that's something we are taking a very hard look at, in addition to OpEx, in order to be prepared for no matter what comes our way.

在喬納森上任之前，就經濟衰退的策略而言。顯然，我們將認真審視營運支出和成本生產力。我認為考慮到市場的發展，我們在這兩個領域還有改進的空間。顯然，我們知道，在過去幾年中，由於我們所看到的通膨壓力，成本生產力已經下降，除了營運支出之外，我們正在認真研究這一點，以便做好準備無論我們遇到什麼。

Okay. Thanks, Jochen. And I'll just add a couple of points. I think Edel covered this really nicely. But I think with where we are in consumer health, we are seeing a more stressed consumer. So as we reach out to the consumer from an HDFS perspective, they are working a little harder to balance payments across their portfolio than where they were. Certainly, when you look at the segments, there's more tension in subprime than there is in prime. Across the HDFS business for a number of years, we've been reducing our exposure to the subprime side. So the portfolio has less subprime consumers in it than it has versus the last few years.

好的。謝謝，喬亨。我只想補充幾點。我認為埃德爾很好地涵蓋了這一點。但我認為，就消費者健康狀況而言，我們看到消費者壓力更大。因此，當我們從 HDFS 的角度接觸消費者時，他們比以前更努力地平衡其投資組合中的支付。當然，當你觀察各個細分市場時，你會發現次級貸款比黃金貸款更緊張。多年來，在整個 HDFS 業務中，我們一直在減少對次貸方面的風險。因此，與過去幾年相比，該投資組合中的次級消費者較少。

To provide a little bit of color in terms of where we are in delinquency, we're certainly seeing delinquency up a little bit versus the same period prior year. This is also demonstrated and disclosed on our Page 13 where we walk through what we're seeing from a credit loss standpoint as that kind of moves up. And then with that, we've taken some changes in the provision to make sure that we are covered from a future perspective.

為了讓我們了解拖欠率的情況，我們確實看到拖欠率比去年同期上升。這也在我們的第 13 頁上得到了展示和披露，我們從信用損失的角度來看了隨著信用損失的上升而看到的情況。然後，我們對條款進行了一些更改，以確保我們從未來的角度得到保障。

And then just touching a little bit further on recession playbook, I think Jochen hit on a couple of really good thoughts, right? Making sure that we're looking at the OpEx side of our business, to ensure that we're bringing out costs where we can. We're not stopping there. We are continuing to go a little further and make sure that we are thinking about the cost of goods sold side and really diving in there to ensure that we can hit targets.

然後，我想進一步談談經濟衰退的策略，我認為 Jochen 提出了一些非常好的想法，對嗎？確保我們專注於業務的營運支出，以確保我們盡可能降低成本。我們不會就此止步。我們將繼續走得更遠，確保我們考慮到銷售商品的成本，並真正投入其中，以確保我們能夠實現目標。

And then the last piece, I think, is from a recession playbook perspective, when we look at HDFS and think about some of the near-term actions that we can take, obviously, the portfolio that you have is the one that you work with. So from the standpoint of what we do day in and day out, it's really about making sure that we have the appropriate collection staff in place that we're going after customers in a way that's fair and helps bring them current.

我認為最後一篇文章是從經濟衰退劇本的角度來看的，當我們審視 HDFS 並思考我們可以採取的一些近期行動時，顯然，您擁有的投資組合就是您所使用的投資組合。因此，從我們日復一日工作的角度來看，這實際上是為了確保我們擁有適當的收集人員，以便我們以公平的方式吸引客戶並幫助他們了解最新情況。

And then we also look at kind of different technology tools that we can use to help our associates and help our customers. So reaching out to customers in different fashions. So rather than just in a telephone approach, we make sure that we can use text, that we're using e-mail, that we're really allowing customers to interact with us in ways that they want to.

然後我們也研究了可以用來幫助我們的員工和客戶的不同技術工具。因此以不同的方式接觸客戶。因此，我們不只是透過電話方式，而是確保我們可以使用文本，我們使用電子郵件，我們真正允許客戶以他們想要的方式與我們互動。

And then the last point that I'll touch on is that we do actually run our calls through an AI process to really look and make sure that we're comfortable with the way that our collectors are interacting with consumers. So overall, I think a very good question, something that we certainly feel like we're managing in line with the environment that we're in. But again, good question. Thank you so much.

我要提到的最後一點是，我們實際上透過人工智慧流程運行我們的調用，以真正查看並確保我們對收藏家與消費者互動的方式感到滿意。總的來說，我認為這是一個非常好的問題，我們確實感覺我們正在根據我們所處的環境進行管理。但同樣，這是個好問題。太感謝了。

Your next question comes from the line of Robbie Ohmes from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Robbie Ohmes。

I was hoping Jochen and everyone could maybe give us some thoughts on the dealer inventory levels, and are they still out of balance? And are you -- is there a lot of work to do to get them more in balance in terms of more trikes and less Sportsters and things like that?

我希望Jochen和大家可以給我們一些關於經銷商庫存水準的想法，他們是否仍然不平衡？您是否需要做很多工作來讓他們在更多的三輪車和更少的運動者以及類似的事情方面更加平衡？

And what would be the timing of getting the dealers in the position you would want them to be in from the inventory mix standpoint? And related to that, how should we think about supporting dealer promotions going forward and also maybe supporting HDFS promotions as well? Should we think about that for the fourth quarter as an impact on gross margin? And any thoughts on how that might spill into the first half of next year?

從庫存組合的角度來看，讓經銷商處於您希望他們處於的位置的時機是什麼？與此相關的是，我們應該如何考慮支援經銷商促銷活動以及支援 HDFS 促銷活動？我們是否應該將其視為對第四季毛利率的影響？對於這可能如何影響到明年上半年有什麼想法嗎？

Thank you, Robbie, for your question. Let me touch upon the point around inventory first. So certainly, we have been working throughout the course of Q3 to ensure that we are getting to the right level and the right mix of inventory, as you appropriately note, in the channel.

謝謝你，羅比，你的問題。讓我先談談庫存問題。因此，當然，我們在整個第三季度一直在努力，以確保我們在渠道中達到正確的水平和正確的庫存組合，正如您適當指出的那樣。

It is certainly no secret that, as we have gone through some of the supply disruption that Jochen referenced, which has shown up in both our supply chain as well as in overall, the timing of the units that are available in the dealer, that has led to some impact upon our ability to retail within the quarter. That is either, as I said, a combination of timing of when the units arrive or the mix of units that we have in the channel.

這當然不是什麼秘密，因為我們已經經歷了 Jochen 提到的一些供應中斷，這已經出現在我們的供應鏈以及整體上，經銷商中可用單位的時間安排上，這已經不是什麼秘密了。對我們本季的零售能力造成了一些影響。正如我所說，這要么是單位到達時間的組合，要么是我們在頻道中擁有的單位的組合。

Well, certainly, there are dealers that are concerned about the level of inventory. Given particularly what floor plan costs are today, I think you would find in our network that there is still a healthy number of dealers that would say that their concerns are more focused around the mix of the inventory that they have. As you know, things like Trikes and even our new CVOs, and the timing of when those units have made it to their dealership.

當然，有些經銷商擔心庫存水準。特別考慮到目前的平面圖成本，我想您會在我們的網路中發現仍然有大量經銷商表示，他們的擔憂更多地集中在他們擁有的庫存組合上。如您所知，像是三輪車甚至我們的新 CVO 之類的東西，以及這些裝置到達經銷商的時間。

So we are working through the remainder of the year as we wrap up our production model year '23 to ensure that we are focused on those units that are in highest demand and that we manage a mix at the level of individual models, to be closer to what we believe will be necessary in Q4 and even into the early part of the year. It's important to note that the inventory that we have now, plus any remaining shipments of model year '23, is in fact the inventory that supports our retail largely into the new year.

因此，在今年剩下的時間裡，我們將在結束 23 年的生產車型時進行工作，以確保我們專注於需求最高的那些單位，並確保我們在單一車型的層面上管理組合，以更接近我們認為第四季甚至今年年初有必要這樣做。值得注意的是，我們現在擁有的庫存，加上 23 年車型的任何剩餘發貨量，實際上是在很大程度上支持我們零售進入新一年的庫存。

Now to your question on an overall level of promotion and how do we expect that to play out. We have been using some of these tools really to help us against our strategic inventory objectives, make sure that we are balancing that mix and some of the -- some of the challenges that may be in the overall distribution of inventory in our network. These promotions in many instances have been a reallocation of sales incentives that would have been present in other formats.

現在回答你關於整體促銷水平的問題以及我們期望如何發揮作用。我們一直在使用其中一些工具來真正幫助我們實現策略庫存目標，確保我們平衡這種組合以及我們網路中庫存整體分配中可能存在的一些挑戰。在許多情況下，這些促銷活動是對原本以其他形式存在的銷售激勵措施的重新分配。

So we have found that their impact to date on our gross margin is somewhat muted. But we're really trying to ensure that we are driving traffic, that we are supporting our dealers and our most loyal customers in this environment, and that we are, again, managing against those strategic inventory objectives. So you will find that they are very targeted and very specific on families and models that we think are priority.

因此，我們發現迄今為止它們對我們毛利率的影響有些微弱。但我們確實在努力確保我們能夠增加流量，在這種環境下為我們的經銷商和最忠實的客戶提供支持，並且我們再次根據這些戰略庫存目標進行管理。所以你會發現他們對於我們認為優先的系列和車型非常有針對性，非常具體。

Maybe just one last point broadly on the question of inventory. In this environment, we have found that it is necessary for us to operate at higher levels of inventory than we would have seen in '21 or '22, just that the customer demand is a little bit more moderated. There is a little bit more sort of specificity on what the customer is looking for. And certainly, even supply disruptions have added to our need to have a little bit more inventory in the channel to make sure that we can meet consumer demand for the specific bikes that they are looking for. So I just wanted to note that as well.

也許只是關於庫存問題的最後一點。在這種環境下，我們發現我們有必要以比 21 或 22 年更高的庫存水準運營，只是客戶需求稍微溫和一些。客戶正在尋找的東西有更多的特殊性。當然，即使供應中斷也增加了我們在通路中擁有更多庫存的需要，以確保我們能夠滿足消費者對他們正在尋找的特定自行車的需求。所以我也想指出這一點。

Your next question comes from the line of Joseph Altobello from Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的約瑟夫阿爾托貝洛 (Joseph Altobello)。

I just want to follow up on that last commentary regarding dealer inventories. As you mentioned, that they are elevated versus '21 and '22. And if my math is right, I have you guys at about 15 weeks on hand. I think you ended last year around 10 weeks. So just so I'm clear, it sounds like you're comfortable at that 15-week level overall? Or do you think that number comes -- has to come down a little bit next year, somewhere between that 10 and 15-week number?

我只想跟進經銷商庫存的最後評論。正如您所提到的，與“21”和“22”相比，它們有所提高。如果我的計算正確的話，我會在大約 15 週後為你們提供幫助。我認為去年結束時大約有 10 週。我想澄清一下，聽起來您對 15 週的整體水平感到滿意嗎？或者你認為明年這個數字必須下降一點，在 10 到 15 週的數字之間嗎？

Yes. We are, Joseph, comfortable with that number at this point. Obviously, we'll have to see how the fourth quarter unfolds. But all the effects that Edel has mentioned play into this. And therefore, from today's perspective, we feel that the inventory level is okay.

是的。約瑟夫，目前我們對這個數字感到滿意。顯然，我們必須看看第四季的進展如何。但埃德爾提到的所有影響都與此有關。因此，從今天的角度來看，我們認為庫存水準還可以。

Your next question comes from the line of James Hardiman from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼（James Hardiman）。

I was hoping maybe we could bridge the gap between sort of where we are from a retail perspective and the guidance. I think we're down about 9% year-to-date, which I've got to think is worse than where you previously thought it would be. And yes the HDMC guidance is still for flat to up 3%. So obviously, pricing seems to be playing a role, you've got a big benefit in the third quarter. But maybe help us bridge that gap for the year and really more specifically, since you've already reported the first 3 quarters, for the fourth quarter. I guess, to about flattish revenues implied for HDMC in the fourth quarter, I guess how do you get there? What are you assuming for retail ASP shipments, et cetera?

我希望我們能夠彌合零售角度和指導之間的差距。我認為今年迄今為止我們下降了約 9%，我認為這比您之前想像的還要糟糕。是的，HDMC 的指導仍是持平至上漲 3%。顯然，定價似乎發揮了作用，您在第三季度獲得了巨大的收益。但也許可以幫助我們彌補今年的差距，更具體地說，因為您已經報告了前三個季度和第四季度的情況。我想，對於 HDMC 第四季的營收持平，我想你是如何實現這一目標的？您對零售 ASP 出貨量等有何假設？

Yes. Thanks, James. I think, look, we are not providing retail guidance. And from a wholesale perspective, I think you've done the math, right? What you should, from a retail perspective, bear in mind, and we've elaborated on that during the script, is that actually more than 50% of the retail decline is attributed to the retirement of the Sportster, right? So that has a significant effect and that will continue all the way until the Sportster is retired out, which is more or less at the end of the second quarter. And that's in line with our strategy. So bear that in mind when you look at retail and retail declines.

是的。謝謝，詹姆斯。我認為，看，我們沒有提供零售指導。從整體的角度來看，我想你已經算過了，對吧？從零售角度來看，您應該記住的是，實際上超過 50% 的零售下降歸因於 Sportster 的退役，對吧？我們在劇本中對此進行了詳細闡述。因此，這會產生顯著的影響，而這種影響將持續到 Sportster 退休為止，這或多或少是在第二節結束時。這符合我們的策略。因此，當您查看零售業和零售業下滑時，請記住這一點。

Yes. And I think the only piece that I would add on the -- as we think about the business and it's demonstrated on a year-to-date basis is the strength of what we have seen from a mix and a pricing perspective. So obviously, I know there's often a focus out there in terms of units, units, units. And as we look at how we're running the business, we are certainly working to make sure that we're maintaining price advantage wherever we can.

是的。我認為，當我們考慮業務時，我想補充的唯一一點是我們從組合和定價角度看到的實力。顯然，我知道人們通常會注意單位、單位、單位。當我們審視我們的業務運作方式時，我們當然會努力確保盡可能保持價格優勢。

That's helpful. I'll hop in the queue.

這很有幫助。我會插隊。

I think, James, as a little bit of additional context, when we compare things, right, often there's a reference made to 2019, and besides the fact that it's a completely different environment with many factors different today versus 2019, including, obviously, interest rates and consumer sentiment, our HDMC profitability went from 9.1% to 17.4%, an 8.3% increase -- percentage point increase. So that's substantial, and I think is a testament, even in this current environment that we're in, that the strategy is working and the profitability is there.

詹姆斯，我認為，作為一點額外的背景，當我們比較事物時，通常會提到 2019 年，而且事實上，這是一個完全不同的環境，今天與 2019 年有很多不同的因素，顯然包括，利率和消費者信心的影響下，我們的HDMC 獲利能力從9.1% 上升到17.4%，成長了8.3%，增幅為8.3 個百分點。所以這很重要，我認為即使在我們當前所處的環境下，這也證明了該戰略正在發揮作用並且盈利能力也存在。

And that's on a year-to-date basis. But it also applies to the third quarter where we've seen an increase from 4.4% OI to 13.5% in comparison. So please bear that in mind, that's a 9.1% increase in operating income percentage point. So I think that's also the context. As we -- as Jonathan mentioned, you guys are focusing a lot on unit sales and everything else, I think profitability is something not to be disregarded.

這是年初至今的數據。但這也適用於第三季度，相較之下，我們看到 OI 從 4.4% 增加到 13.5%。因此請記住，營業收入增加了 9.1% 個百分點。所以我認為這也是背景。正如喬納森所提到的，你們非常關注單位銷售和其他一切，我認為獲利能力是不容忽視的。

Your next question comes from the line of Tristan Thomas-Martin from BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Tristan Thomas-Martin。

I just wanted to circle back to promos for a second. During the quarter, I think you're running [3.99 with 0] down. And then post the quarter, you switched to [1.99 with 0] down. So what does the consumer response been to lower rates? And is that kind of the level we should expect from -- moving forward? .

我只是想回到促銷片上。在本季度，我認為您的運行情況是 [3.99，0] 下降。然後在本季結束後，您切換到[1.99，下降 0]。那麼消費者對較低的利率有何反應呢？這是我們應該期待的水平嗎？ 。

Thank you for the question, Tristan. So as we mentioned, we are -- we have several different potential challenges to consumer behavior and different objectives strategically around our inventory, which is how we have designed our promotional activity. We have tried an experiment through a couple of different tools to make sure that we are addressing several of those channels, both at the top and the bottom of the funnel.

謝謝你的提問，特里斯坦。正如我們所提到的，我們對消費者行為有幾個不同的潛在挑戰，並且圍繞著我們的庫存策略性地實現了不同的目標，這就是我們設計促銷活動的方式。我們嘗試透過幾種不同的工具進行實驗，以確保我們能夠解決漏斗頂部和底部的幾個通道問題。

Now let me start by saying that many of these promotional efforts are also, in many ways, traffic drivers, first and foremost. We want to make sure, again, in an environment where the consumer is potentially not focused on a discretionary purchase of this size, that we are back in their consideration set. So that is one very important component, even the actual reach or applicability of the promotion.

現在我首先要說的是，許多促銷活動在許多方面首先也是流量驅動因素。我們希望再次確保，在消費者可能不關注這種規模的隨意購買的環境中，我們回到了他們的考慮範圍。因此，這是一個非常重要的組成部分，甚至是促銷活動的實際影響範圍或適用性。

We have found that the low APR has been well received by our dealers and by our consumers. Also at this time of year, you usually see consumers that are looking for that may be a little bit higher creditworthiness and are looking for really a good offer, and that's where we're targeting our promotions. But first and foremost, our efforts are really around the balance of driving traffic, driving awareness, making sure that we're back in the consideration set just as much as it is about closing deals for the consumer at the level of the dealership.

我們發現低年利率受到了經銷商和消費者的好評。同樣在每年的這個時候，您通常會看到消費者正在尋找可能更高一點的信用度，並且正在尋找真正好的優惠，這就是我們促銷活動的目標。但首先也是最重要的是，我們的努力實際上是圍繞著增加流量、提高意識的平衡，確保我們回到考慮範圍，就像在經銷商層級為消費者達成交易一樣。

Your next question comes from the line of Noah Zatzkin from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Noah Zatzkin。

Just wondering if you could provide some color or help quantify the impact of the production suspension on [3G] shipments and how you think about the retail impact during the quarter there. Do you expect resumption of shipments to be a retail tailwind in the fourth quarter?

只是想知道您是否可以提供一些資訊或幫助量化生產暫停對 [3G] 出貨量的影響，以及您如何看待該季度的零售影響。您預計第四季出貨量的恢復會成為零售業的動力嗎？

Well, if you look -- as we mentioned in our speech, that shipments have had resumed but they actually came in later than we had hoped for, in the third quarter. So some of our most desirable products came in later in the third quarter, and that certainly has had some impact. To quantify the impact on retail is quite difficult, so I'll refrain from that. But the interruption has certainly messed up our mix a little bit and the shipment of our most desirable units. And that impact, we've certainly seen play out.

好吧，如果你看一下——正如我們在演講中提到的那樣，發貨已經恢復，但實際上比我們預期的第三季度發貨要晚。因此，我們最理想的一些產品在第三季晚些時候推出，這肯定產生了一些影響。量化對零售業的影響相當困難，所以我不會這麼做。但這次中斷肯定有點擾亂了我們的組合以及我們最想要的產品的運輸。我們確實看到了這種影響的發揮。

Now how much you can -- how much of that you can pick up in the fourth quarter remains to be seen, but that's obviously what we're trying to achieve.

現在你能在第四季獲得多少還有待觀察，但這顯然是我們想要實現的目標。

Very helpful. Maybe just one more. And I know you're not guiding to 2024, but as it relates to HDFS, I guess, how are you thinking about kind of a baseline for expected credit losses next year given higher rates?

很有幫助。也許只剩下一個了。我知道您不是在指導 2024 年，但由於它與 HDFS 相關，我想，考慮到利率較高，您如何考慮明年預期信貸損失的基線？

Yes, you're welcome. So, good question. We're actually not talking about 2024 or 2024 guidance at this point. We want to make sure that we close out the year and have confidence in what we are communicating further out. So we'll probably hold on that.

是的，不客氣。所以，好問題。實際上，我們目前並不是在談論 2024 年或 2024 年指導。我們希望確保我們結束這一年並對我們進一步溝通的內容充滿信心。所以我們可能會堅持下去。

I think the important point for us is, as we look at what we've displayed again within the presentation today, what we're seeing in terms of realized retail credit losses, certainly, those have accelerated. We think that we're starting to comp a period that's a little bit easier from a comp perspective than where we were in the first half of the year. So the -- kind of the trend that we're on is in the right direction, but probably not the right severity. So that will start to slow down a little bit as we move into the back quarter or the final quarter of the year. But again, as we look forward to 2024, we're going to save that for a future call with you that's a little bit more informed and a little bit more accurate.

我認為對我們來說重要的一點是，當我們看看今天在演示中再次展示的內容時，我們在已實現的零售信貸損失方面看到的情況，當然，這些損失已經加速。我們認為，從比較的角度來看，我們開始計算一個比今年上半年更容易的時期。因此，我們所處的趨勢是正確的方向，但可能不是正確的嚴重程度。因此，當我們進入今年下半年或最後一個季度時，速度將開始稍微放緩。但同樣，當我們展望 2024 年時，我們將保留這些內容下來，以便將來與您進行通話，以便獲得更豐富的資訊和更準確的資訊。

Your next question comes from the line of David S. MacGregor from Longbow Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 David S. MacGregor。

I wanted to ask about LiveWire, and it seems as though you're still targeting that 600 bikes at the low end of the range, which would imply a pretty substantial inflection in shipments here in the fourth quarter. I guess how confident are you in that 600-unit sort of target? Can you talk about what percentage of these bikes may be presold at this point? Have you adjusted your planned price points on the Del Mar to account for maybe some of the affordability issues that were discussed earlier in the call? And I think importantly, at what rate does the operating loss respond to the ramp in unit shippings?

我想詢問 LiveWire 的情況，看來你們的目標仍然是 600 輛低階自行車，這意味著第四季的出貨量將出現相當大的變化。我想您對 600 台的目標有多少信心？您能否談談目前這些自行車的預售比例是多少？您是否調整了 Del Mar 的計劃價格點，以考慮到電話會議之前討論過的一些負擔能力問題？我認為重要的是，營業虧損對單位運輸量成長的反應速度是多少？

David, thanks for the question. Well, our level of confidence is where it should be to reaffirm guidance, right? We have enough demand to fulfill the guidance in terms of number of units. We're back in production ramping up right now as we speak. So we feel pretty confident that between demand that we have with preorders along with the capacity available at York, that we can fulfill that number. So that's the first part of the question.

大衛，謝謝你的提問。好吧，我們的信心水平應該達到重申指導的水平，對嗎？我們有足夠的需求來滿足單位數量的指導。就在我們說話的時候，我們已經恢復了生產。因此，我們非常有信心，根據預訂的需求以及約克的可用容量，我們可以滿足這個數字。這是問題的第一部分。

The second, we stick to the pricing that was communicated earlier.

第二，我們堅持之前溝通的定價。

Okay. And are you able to speak to at what rate the operating loss response for the ramp in unit shipments?

好的。您能否談談單位出貨量成長對營運損失的反應速度是多少？

Well, the operating loss is in line with the investments that were planned for the year. So at this stage, it's exactly the rate that we're supposed to have.

嗯，營業虧損與今年計劃的投資相符。所以在這個階段，這正是我們應該擁有的速率。

Right. I guess I'm just trying to get a sense of going forward, what that operating leverage, that volume leverage might look like in '24, '25 as we ramp.

正確的。我想我只是想了解未來的發展情況，隨著我們的發展，營運槓桿、銷售槓桿在 24 年、25 年可能會是什麼樣子。

Well, I think I will give you the same response Jonathan just gave, which is we don't comment on '24, '25 on this call.

好吧，我想我會給你喬納森剛才給出的同樣的回應，那就是我們不會在這次電話會議上對“24”、“25”發表評論。

Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Rolle from D.A. Davidson.

你的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Brandon Rolle。戴維森。

Earlier in the call, you touched on the dealer forum you hosted in early October. Would you be able to touch on a few of the topics you discussed there? Feedback we received from dealers was overwhelmingly positive, especially around new products, but also some of the initiatives you're taking for 2024?

在電話會議的早些時候，您談到了 10 月初主辦的經銷商論壇。您能談談您在那裡討論的一些話題嗎？我們從經銷商收到的回饋非常積極，尤其是新產品方面，還有您為 2024 年採取的一些措施嗎？

Brandon. Well, that's good to hear. We thought it was an excellent session as well. The main objective really was around the business planning opportunity with our dealers. So certainly, there was value to all of us being together again as a broader sort of HDMC and dealer body. Our main objective is to make sure that we are aligned going into 2024 on what we need to do, to make sure that we have a very strong year.

布蘭登.嗯，很高興聽到這個消息。我們認為這也是一次很棒的會議。主要目標實際上是圍繞與經銷商的業務規劃機會。因此，作為一個更廣泛的 HDMC 和經銷商團體，我們所有人再次聚在一起是有價值的。我們的主要目標是確保我們在進入 2024 年需要做的事情上保持一致，確保我們度過一個非常強勁的一年。

We believe our network, as Jochen referenced in his commentary, is really a differentiated asset for us in terms of its reach, its strength, its exclusivity. So the more that we can align and ensure that we are going to market together on some critical initiatives, the better.

我們相信，正如 Jochen 在他的評論中提到的那樣，我們的網路在其覆蓋範圍、強度和排他性方面確實是我們的差異化資產。因此，我們越能協調並確保我們在一些關鍵舉措上共同進行行銷，效果就越好。

Our main agenda topics, we certainly had a section of this around product, which we don't comment on our future product initiatives. But obviously, a very important part of the session was making sure that our dealers were aware of some of what is planned for 2024 as they think about their own operations. And then we did more -- a broad set of -- we covered a broad set of topics around business alignment on some of our key initiatives, membership and loyalty, our apparel business, our broader omni-channel initiative, how we're thinking about profitability and growth.

我們的主要議程主題，我們當然有一個圍繞產品的部分，我們不會對我們未來的產品計劃發表評論。但顯然，會議的一個非常重要的部分是確保我們的經銷商在考慮自己的營運時了解 2024 年的一些計劃。然後我們做了更多——一系列廣泛的——我們涵蓋了一系列廣泛的主題，圍繞我們的一些關鍵舉措、會員和忠誠度、我們的服裝業務、我們更廣泛的全渠道計劃、我們的想法等方面的業務調整關於獲利能力和成長。

And again, very, very heavy discussion, a big component of the agenda around ensuring that we are aligned in our go-to market and in our marketing investments, in particular, again, leveraging the strength of that network and the investments that they bring to bear, and the engagement with consumers.

再次，非常非常激烈的討論，議程的一個重要組成部分是確保我們在進入市場和行銷投資方面保持一致，特別是再次利用該網路的優勢及其帶來的投資承擔以及與消費者的互動。

So we felt it was an incredibly valuable session. It was a wonderful opportunity also to just energize around what has been, in many ways, a challenging year. So it was -- I think, will bear fruit as we go into 2024 in a much more aligned and energized network.

所以我們覺得這是一次非常有價值的會議。這也是一個絕佳的機會，讓我們能夠在從許多方面來說充滿挑戰的一年中充滿活力。因此，我認為，當我們進入 2024 年時，它將在一個更協調和充滿活力的網路中結出碩果。

Our next question comes from the line of James Hardiman from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

Back to sort of the inventory conversation. I think I get why inventories would be up versus '21 and '22. Those were pretty depleted levels. But I guess what I still struggle with here, inventories are, versus '19, they're down less than retail is, right? And so days on hand, weeks on hand, at least by my math, are up fairly meaningfully versus 2019. And Jochen, when you first came in, it seemed like the message was pretty loud and clear, that you guys thought that inventories were way too high coming out of 2019.

回到庫存對話的排序。我想我明白為什麼庫存會比 21 年和 22 年增加。這些水平相當低。但我想我仍然在糾結的是，與 19 年相比，庫存下降幅度小於零售下降幅度，對嗎？因此，至少從我的數學角度來看，現有的天數、週數比2019 年有了相當大的增長。Jochen，當你第一次進來時，似乎傳達的信息非常響亮和明確，你們認為庫存是2019 年以來，這個數字太高了。

So help me sort of square those 2 things? I mean it just -- it feels like so much of the effort in the first couple of years went towards leaning out the channel. And as we sit here today, we're sort of worse than we were back then, at least on a weeks on hand basis.

那麼幫我解決這兩件事嗎？我的意思是——感覺頭幾年的大部分努力都花在了拓展管道上。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們的情況比當時更糟，至少從目前的情況來看是如此。

Yes, I'll let Edel comment here as well versus 2019. But I don't think you can compare '21 and '22 to what we are seeing now. And for all the reasons that I've mentioned in -- early on, it's a very different environment. Demand is more selective. We've had a production interruption that -- and in order to get the right mix to the dealers, we need to structurally have a higher inventory if demand is more selective on product as well. And we still end up, and I'll hand it over to Edel here, significantly below 2019 levels.

是的，我會讓埃德爾在這裡評論一下與 2019 年的情況。但我認為你不能將 21 和 22 與我們現在所看到的進行比較。由於我早些時候提到的所有原因，這是一個非常不同的環境。需求更具選擇性。我們的生產中斷了—為了向經銷商提供正確的產品組合，如果需求對產品也更具選擇性，我們需要在結構上擁有更高的庫存。我們最終的結果仍然是，我將把它交給 Edel 這裡，遠低於 2019 年的水平。

So -- and I know that you -- the way you're doing the math is a little bit different to ours in terms of reach of the inventory. But from everything we've seen and everything we are hearing, we feel that we're in a good spot here.

因此，我知道您的計算方式在庫存範圍方面與我們的有點不同。但從我們所看到和聽到的一切來看，我們覺得我們處於一個很好的位置。

Yes, James, I think the comparison point to 2019 is important. There are, as Jochen mentioned, a couple of differences in terms of where we are now more broadly in the business cycle than in 2019. So the first thing that I would say is, undoubtedly, we have been working throughout the quarter, certainly since the production shutdown, to make sure that we are adjusting our overall inventory levels. And again, it's less about the total units, which are still down versus 2019, than it is about the mix of the units in the channel. That's something that we certainly continue to hold as a very key principle of our overall Hardwire strategy, is to make sure that we have adequate representation.

是的，詹姆斯，我認為與 2019 年的比較很重要。正如Jochen 所提到的，我們現在所處的商業週期與2019 年相比存在一些差異。因此，我要說的第一件事是，毫無疑問，我們整個季度都在努力，當然從那時起停產，以確保我們調整整體庫存水準。再說一次，重要的不是總單位數（與 2019 年相比仍然下降），而是通路中單位的組合。我們肯定會繼續堅持這一點，作為我們整體硬線策略的一個非常關鍵的原則，即確保我們有足夠的代表性。

The second element, and it really isn't to be sort of underestimated is the impact of the delay and the mix of what we were able to produce, particularly in the early part of the quarter against our retail objectives. So that is something where we believe many of those units, particularly the CVOs, are still units that have a potential for retail in the year. So that is something to take into account as we look at the full 2023. But that is certainly a factor that we have been working through in the back half of the year.

第二個因素確實不容低估，那就是延遲的影響以及我們能夠生產的產品的組合，特別是在本季度初對我們零售目標的影響。因此，我們相信其中許多單位，特別是 CVO，仍然是今年有零售潛力的單位。因此，在我們展望 2023 年全年時，這是需要考慮的因素。但這無疑是我們今年下半年一直在努力解決的因素。

The third factor that I would note, and this is again a difference versus 2019 in the cadence of the year overall, we have stopped production of 2023 units as of this week. We will continue to ship those, obviously, as they finish up, and we load plan, et cetera, and match them to dealer demand. But essentially, that is a big distinction versus our business cycle in 2019 where we would have continued shipping units well into Q4, a sort of full course. We are deliberately tapering down that production as we get ready for 2024.

我要指出的第三個因素是，這又與 2019 年的整體節奏有所不同，截至本週我們已停止 2023 台的生產。顯然，當它們完成後，我們將繼續運送它們，我們加載計劃等等，並將它們與經銷商的需求相匹配。但從本質上講，這與我們 2019 年的商業週期有很大區別，在 2019 年，我們將繼續在第四季度繼續出貨，這是一個完整的過程。我們正在刻意減少產量，為 2024 年做好準備。

And then the final point that I would make, and this is something that we have certainly learned this year with the change of our model year to the beginning of the calendar year, we intend to be fully ready for 2024 across all of the families and particularly those where we have seen very high demand, Trike was referenced early in the conversation, and where we have struggled, quite frankly, all year to meet that demand in a timely fashion in a heavily seasonal business. And we want to be ready for 2024. We want to be ready for that ramp-up.

然後是我要說的最後一點，這是我們今年通過將車型年更改為日曆年年初而學到的東西，我們打算為所有家庭和 2024 年做好充分準備特別是那些我們看到需求非常高的地方，我們在談話的早期就提到了Trike，坦白說，我們全年都在努力在季節性很強的業務中及時滿足這種需求。我們希望為 2024 年做好準備。我們希望為這一成長做好準備。

We believe inventory has an important role in supporting the beginning of the year. And if you look at it through that lens, we are in a meaningfully different position than we were in 2019.

我們認為庫存對於年初的支撐作用非常重要。如果你從這個角度來看，我們現在的處境與 2019 年有很大不同。

So those are a couple of the different factors that we are weighing and balancing. So certainly working through it, trying to get the mix right, which is our most important consideration, managing the total units, obviously important this year given the extra cost for the dealers, but ensuring above all, that with the different production cadence, we are ready and prepared for the start of the season in a heavily, heavily seasonal business.

這些是我們正在權衡和平衡的幾個不同因素。因此，當然要努力解決這個問題，努力實現正確的組合，這是我們最重要的考慮因素，管理總單位，考慮到經銷商的額外成本，今年顯然很重要，但最重要的是，確保在不同的生產節奏下，我們在季節性很強的業務中為季節的開始做好準備。

And if I may, can I just clarify? I mean, to this mix question and the wind-down of Sportster. So the SKU count versus 2019 is, is what? It sounds like the SKU count is actually down, so that should help bring down inventories, correct? Or am I not thinking about that the right way? .

如果可以的話，我可以澄清一下嗎？我的意思是，對於這個混合問題和 Sportster 的結束。那麼與 2019 年相比，SKU 數量是多少呢？聽起來 SKU 數量實際上有所下降，因此這應該有助於減少庫存，對嗎？或者我沒有以正確的方式思考這個問題？ 。

Yes. When I refer to mix, I refer to mix both within and across families. So the balance relatively between, for example, our Softail family and our Trike family versus what we have within the Touring family, those are some of the inputs -- those -- that balance is one that is not exactly or has not been exactly what we would have wanted across Q3. And even within something like our Touring family, 55% of our portfolio, there is a relative balance of some of our higher-end, more complex units, our ST, even our specials, versus our base Road Glide and Street Glide. All of those individual units given supply disruption and then potentially even the change in consumer preferences and affordability throughout the year, are units that we try to correct.

是的。當我提到混合時，我指的是家庭內部和家庭之間的混合。因此，例如，我們的 Softail 系列和 Trike 系列與我們的 Touring 系列之間的相對平衡，這些是一些投入 - 那些 - 這種平衡並不完全或尚未完全實現。我們本來希望在第三季度。即使在像我們的旅行系列（占我們產品組合的55%）這樣的產品中，我們的一些更高端、更複雜的單元、我們的ST，甚至我們的特價產品，與我們的基本公路滑翔和街道滑翔相比，也存在相對平衡。所有這些個別單位在供應中斷的情況下，甚至可能在全年消費者偏好和承受能力發生變化的情況下，都是我們試圖糾正的單位。

And I should note, all of this is in the context of manufacturing realities. Transforming sort of the mix of a manufacturing facility within the year is not an easy task. So it is progressive. And that's what we have been doing throughout the back half of the year to make sure that we have the right combination of families and then even models within those families to prepare ourselves and to more closely match where demand is.

我應該指出，所有這一切都是在製造現實的背景下進行的。在一年之內改變製造工廠的結構並不是一件容易的事。所以它是進步的。這就是我們今年下半年一直在做的事情，以確保我們擁有正確的家庭組合，甚至是這些家庭中的模型，以做好準備並更緊密地匹配需求。

Understood. I can appreciate it. It's not an easy task. So I appreciate the color.

明白了。我很欣賞。這不是一件容易的事。所以我很欣賞這種顏色。

There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect.

目前沒有其他問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入，現在可以斷開連線了。