Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Harley-Davidson 2023 First Quarter Investor and Analyst Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Shawn Collins.

    感謝您的支持,歡迎參加哈雷戴維森 2023 年第一季度投資者和分析師電話會議。請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給肖恩柯林斯。

  • Thank you. Please go ahead.

    謝謝。請繼續。

  • Shawn Michael Collins - Director of IR

    Shawn Michael Collins - Director of IR

  • Thank you. Good morning. This is Shawn Collins, the Director of Investor Relations at Harley-Davidson. You can access the slides supporting today's call on the Internet at the Harley-Davidson Investor Relations website. As you might expect, our comments will include forward-looking statements that are subject to business risks, that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted in our latest filings with the SEC.

    謝謝。早上好。我是哈雷戴維森投資者關係總監肖恩柯林斯。您可以在 Harley-Davidson 投資者關係網站的 Internet 上訪問支持今天電話會議的幻燈片。如您所料,我們的評論將包括受商業風險影響的前瞻性陳述,這些陳述可能導致實際結果大不相同。這些風險包括我們在最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中提到的事項。

  • With that, joining me this morning for the first part of the call are Harley-Davidson Chief Executive Officer, Jochen Zeitz; also Chief Financial Officer, Gina Goetter; and we also have LiveWire President, Ryan Morrissey. In addition, for the Q&A portion of today's call, we will have Harley-Davidson Chief Commercial Officer, Edel O’'Sullivan; and we will also have Harley-Davidson's soon to be Interim Chief Financial Officer, David Viney. With that, let me turn it over to our CEO, Jochen Zeitz. Jochen?

    因此,今天早上和我一起參加電話會議的第一部分的是 Harley-Davidson 首席執行官 Jochen Zeitz;兼首席財務官 Gina Goetter;我們還有 LiveWire 總裁 Ryan Morrissey。此外,對於今天電話會議的問答部分,我們將邀請 Harley-Davidson 首席商務官 Edel O''Sullivan;我們也將很快有哈雷戴維森擔任臨時首席財務官,David Viney。有了這個,讓我把它交給我們的首席執行官 Jochen Zeitz。喬臣?

  • Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

    Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Thank you, Shawn, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for our Q1 2023 results. Harley-Davidson delivered a solid start to '23, the third year of our Hardwire strategic plan with consolidated first quarter revenue up 20% to $1.789 billion, driven by HDMC. We're pleased with our start to the year and with the execution of our strategic plan through the quarter.

    謝謝你,肖恩,大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們,了解我們 2023 年第一季度的業績。 Harley-Davidson 在 23 年取得了良好的開端,這是我們 Hardwire 戰略計劃的第三年,在 HDMC 的推動下,第一季度綜合收入增長 20% 至 17.89 億美元。我們對今年的開局以及本季度戰略計劃的執行情況感到滿意。

  • In this, our 120th anniversary year, we anticipate momentum to build over the year. However, we maintain a measured outlook on the wider economic picture. Harley-Davidson continues on its transformational journey. As we've said before, through the foundational work of the Rewire and the execution of the Hardwire, we've changed our overall approach and focus as a business on prioritizing unit growth at all costs to more holistic view on profitable growth.

    在我們成立 120 週年之際,我們預計這一年勢頭會增強。然而,我們對更廣泛的經濟前景保持審慎的看法。 Harley-Davidson 繼續其轉型之旅。正如我們之前所說,通過 Rewire 的基礎工作和 Hardwire 的執行,我們已經改變了我們的整體方法,並作為一家企業專注於不惜一切代價優先考慮單位增長,以更全面地看待利潤增長。

  • The Hardwire emphasizes stronghold categories that we believe are the most profitable motorcycle segments globally as well as selective expansion opportunities, placing an overriding focus and desirability that reflects the premium nature of our brand and product. As we navigate the evolving macro environment, we will remain committed to these principles instead of a chase for volume for volume's sake in our core categories. We also remain confident in the innovation pipeline that will power our future.

    Hardwire 強調我們認為是全球最賺錢的摩托車細分市場的據點類別以及選擇性擴張機會,將最重要的重點和需求放在首位,以反映我們品牌和產品的優質性質。在我們駕馭不斷變化的宏觀環境時,我們將繼續致力於這些原則,而不是在我們的核心類別中為了數量而追求數量。我們也對將為我們的未來提供動力的創新管道充滿信心。

  • We continue to work with our dealers to ensure our activities and fairs are aligned to healthy demand generation, especially in the current consumer environment. The programs were designed and are implementing share 4 goals: generate demand and traffic to our dealerships and digital properties; provide tools and options to address concerns around affordability; ensure proper management of inventory in its life cycle; and reinvigorate sales effectiveness after a couple of years of lower product availability. Desirability remains at the heart of our strategy.

    我們繼續與我們的經銷商合作,以確保我們的活動和展會符合健康的需求生成,尤其是在當前的消費環境中。這些計劃的設計和實施共有 4 個目標:為我們的經銷商和數字資產產生需求和流量;提供工具和選項來解決對負擔能力的擔憂;確保在其生命週期中對庫存進行適當管理;在產品可用性下降幾年後重振銷售效率。吸引力仍然是我們戰略的核心。

  • We believe a highly promotional approach would negatively impact profitability in our most premium categories. So we continue to focus on activities that motivate the customer to engage with our dealers to find the right bike for them. Our season opener on March 25, which saw over 90% of the network participating is a great example of this. And we intend to continue to focus on marketing, lead generation and messaging that is aligned with our strategy.

    我們認為,高度促銷的方法會對我們最優質類別的盈利能力產生負面影響。因此,我們繼續專注於激勵客戶與我們的經銷商合作以找到適合他們的自行車的活動。我們在 3 月 25 日舉行的賽季揭幕戰中有超過 90% 的網絡參與,這就是一個很好的例子。我們打算繼續專注於符合我們戰略的營銷、潛在客戶生成和消息傳遞。

  • Now I'll highlight select pillars of the strategy, starting with Pillar 1, profit focus. With the Hardwire, we made a commitment to strengthen and grow Harley's leadership in our strongest smaller cycle segments, namely touring, large cruiser and trike. Not only are these segments the most profitable in the market globally, but we also believe these segments offer potential to inspire more engagement while compelling new customers and riders to choose Harley-Davidson.

    現在,我將重點介紹該戰略的選定支柱,首先是支柱 1,即利潤重點。通過 Hardwire,我們承諾加強和發展哈雷在我們最強大的小型自行車領域的領導地位,即旅行車、大型巡洋艦和三輪車。這些細分市場不僅是全球市場上利潤最高的細分市場,而且我們還相信,這些細分市場具有激發更多參與度的潛力,同時吸引新客戶和騎手選擇哈雷戴維森。

  • Aligned to this focus in January, we kicked off our 120th anniversary with the first reveal of our '23 lineup, celebrating 120 years of Harley-Davidson pride and craftsmanship. This initial release included the CVO Road Glide limited anniversary model and 6 additional limited edition motorcycles, featuring exclusive 120th anniversary commemorative paint finishes and details. The release also included a refreshed Harley-Davidson breakout performance cruiser, the exciting Road Glide 3 trike model and new Nightster special middleweight sport motorcycle and the [restarted] Freewheeler trike model.

    今年 1 月,與這一重點保持一致,我們以 23 系列的首次亮相拉開了我們 120 週年的序幕,慶祝 Harley-Davidson 120 年的自豪感和工藝。此初始版本包括 CVO Road Glide 限量版週年紀念模型和 6 款額外的限量版摩托車,具有獨特的 120 週年紀念油漆飾面和細節。該版本還包括更新的 Harley-Davidson 突破性能巡洋艦、令人興奮的 Road Glide 3 三輪車模型和新的 Nightster 特殊中量級運動摩托車和 [重新啟動] Freewheeler 三輪車模型。

  • We also made a commitment to introduce limited edition motorcycles that align with our strategy to increase desirability and to drive the legacy of Harley-Davidson. With that in mind, for our second reveal of the year, I'm excited to announce that next week, we will be launching additions to our icons and enthusiast collections. Stay tuned for more.

    我們還承諾推出符合我們戰略的限量版摩托車,以提高吸引力並推動哈雷戴維森的傳統。考慮到這一點,對於我們今年的第二次展示,我很高興地宣布下週,我們將推出我們的圖標和愛好者收藏的補充。敬請期待更多。

  • At the same time, we retired the EVO Sportster in North America, a model that was cherished over the last 65 years, but has been carrying negative margins for the Motor Company for many years. It is important to note that the phaseout of Sportster and the cadence of CVO model rollout throughout the year has created a different retail unit volume dynamic in '23 versus prior years. And while RevMAX will be able to compensate in part for the EVO Sportster, we need to consider the different price and overall positioning.

    與此同時,我們在北美退役了 EVO Sportster,這款車型在過去 65 年一直備受推崇,但多年來一直為汽車公司帶來負利潤。值得注意的是,Sportster 的逐步淘汰和 CVO 模型全年推出的節奏在 23 年創造了與往年不同的零售單位量動態。而 RevMAX 將能夠部分彌補 EVO Sportster 的不足,但我們需要考慮不同的價格和整體定位。

  • The company also continues to selectively focus on opportunities in segments aligned with the company's product and brand capabilities that demonstrate a path to market leadership and profitability. In redefining our geographic footprint, we made a commitment to strategically drive target markets to their full potential by developing custom product and go-to-market approaches. With that in mind, we have been encouraged by the reception of our HDX 350 and 500 bikes available currently in APAC.

    該公司還繼續有選擇地關注與公司產品和品牌能力相符的細分市場機會,這些機會展示了通往市場領導地位和盈利能力的途徑。在重新定義我們的地理足跡時,我們承諾通過開發定制產品和進入市場的方法,戰略性地推動目標市場充分發揮其潛力。考慮到這一點,我們對目前在亞太地區收到的 HDX 350 和 500 自行車感到鼓舞。

  • We believe this launches a new vector for growth in select markets for a new customer, and we are excited for future opportunities. Under our growth beyond bikes pillar, we know that parts and accessories, apparel and licensing and Harley-Davidson Financial Services are important components of the company's future success as a global lifestyle brand and provide untapped potential to grow our customer base and add to customer lifetime value.

    我們相信,這為新客戶在特定市場的增長開啟了新的載體,我們對未來的機會感到興奮。在我們超越自行車支柱的增長下,我們知道零件和配件、服裝和許可以及哈雷戴維森金融服務是公司未來作為全球生活方式品牌取得成功的重要組成部分,並提供尚未開發的潛力來擴大我們的客戶群並延長客戶壽命價值。

  • For Parts & Accessories, despite lower retail volume, we continue to drive meaningful P&A metrics and so growth in the service ROs in our dealerships as part availability improved with gross margin expanding in Q1. For apparel and licensing in January, we successfully launched our 120th anniversary collection, and in February, we introduced HD collections, the grouping of lifestyle apparel lines, defined by the heritage and craftmanship synonymous with Harley-Davidson.

    對於零件和配件,儘管零售量下降,但我們繼續推動有意義的 P&A 指標,因此隨著第一季度毛利率的擴大,零件可用性提高,我們經銷商的服務 RO 增長。對於服裝和授權,我們在 1 月成功推出了 120 週年紀念系列,並在 2 月推出了 HD 系列,這是一組生活方式服裝系列,由哈雷戴維森 (Harley-Davidson) 的傳承和工藝定義。

  • Bringing together the many facets of motor culture, while paying tribute to our heritage, we are focused on building the Harley-Davidson Apparel & Licensing business, while gradually increasing and expanding the overall lifestyle apparel offering of our brand. To improve customer experience, we remain committed to major strategic priorities in dealer facility upgrades, enhanced omnichannel offerings and revamped motorcycle distribution capabilities, which we expect to roll out throughout '23 and '24 as well as a renewed focus on HD experiences for our riding community and brand aficionados as we ramp up our 120th anniversary celebrations, but more about that later this year.

    匯集汽車文化的方方面面,在向我們的傳統致敬的同時,我們專注於打造哈雷戴維森服裝和授權業務,同時逐步增加和擴大我們品牌的整體生活方式服裝產品。為了改善客戶體驗,我們仍然致力於經銷商設施升級、增強全渠道產品和改進摩托車分銷能力方面的主要戰略重點,我們預計將在整個 23 年和 24 年推出,並重新關注我們騎行的高清體驗社區和品牌愛好者,因為我們正在加強我們的 120 週年慶典,但今年晚些時候會更多。

  • In summary, while overall patterns of traffic and demand as well as other metrics of consumer health showed some restraint in Q1. We believe that we can deliver on our expectations in year 3 of our Hardwire strategy and are excited for what lies ahead for our company and brand. We remain committed to our strategic focus on innovation and profitability under broader banner of desirability as a premium brand in the sector.

    總而言之,雖然交通和需求的總體模式以及消費者健康的其他指標在第一季度表現出一定程度的限制。我們相信我們可以在 Hardwire 戰略的第 3 年實現我們的期望,並對我們公司和品牌的未來感到興奮。我們仍然致力於在作為該行業優質品牌的更廣泛的吸引力旗幟下,將我們的戰略重點放在創新和盈利能力上。

  • Before I hand over to Ryan, in January at our model year launch, I also said that everyone should stay tuned for more. As we committed to innovate in our core categories as part of our new strategy, I'm pleased to highlight yesterday's kickoff of a new era of CVO Touring bikes, the subject of huge amounts of Internet intrigue already. Building on our commitment to invest in our core categories, yesterday, we started teasing the next generation of our CVO Touring motorcycles that will lead us into the future.

    在我移交給 Ryan 之前,在 1 月份的車型年發布會上,我還說過每個人都應該繼續關注更多。作為我們新戰略的一部分,我們致力於在我們的核心類別中進行創新,因此我很高興地強調昨天 CVO 旅行自行車新時代的開端,這個主題已經在互聯網上引起了巨大的興趣。基於我們對核心類別投資的承諾,昨天,我們開始展示下一代 CVO Touring 摩托車,它將引領我們走向未來。

  • In 1969, Harley-Davidson introduced the Batwing Fairing to the Electra Glide, a spark that would ignite a new generation of Harley-Davidson motorcycles that will define the Grand American touring category and the lineage of motorcycles cherished by generations of riders that followed. The legacy lives on today with 2 of Harley-Davidson's most iconic motorcycles in history the Street Glide and Road Glide with DNA can be clearly traced back to the 1969 Electra Glide.

    1969 年,Harley-Davidson 將 Batwing Fairing 引入了 Electra Glide,這顆火花點燃了新一代 Harley-Davidson 摩托車,定義了 Grand American 旅行車類別以及隨後幾代騎手所珍視的摩托車血統。今天,Harley-Davidson 歷史上最具標誌性的兩款摩托車 Street Glide 和 Road Glide with DNA 的傳承可以清楚地追溯到 1969 年的 Electra Glide。

  • Over the decade Harley-Davidson designers and engineers have thoughtfully evolve these motorcycles, introducing incremental improvements to further enhance the riding experience while carefully respecting the heritage and position as icons within the hearts and minds of enthusiasts around the world.

    十年來,Harley-Davidson 的設計師和工程師對這些摩托車進行了深思熟慮的改進,引入了漸進式改進以進一步提升騎行體驗,同時謹慎地尊重傳統和作為全世界愛好者心中的標誌的地位。

  • Since 1999, the most aspiration of these models have been forged from Harley-Davidson Custom Vehicle Operations, CVO, the collection of limited production motorcycles that deliver the ultimate and refinement of styling, design, craftsmanship and attention to detail, along with top-of-the-line performance. With the introduction of the all-new CVO Street Glide and CVO Road Glide, we've completely reimagined two of Harley-Davidson's most iconic motorcycles, and we've redefined the boundaries of CVO in the process.

    自 1999 年以來,哈雷戴維森定制車輛運營部 (CVO) 打造了這些車型中最令人嚮往的車型,這是限量生產的摩托車系列,提供終極和精緻的造型、設計、工藝和對細節的關注,以及頂級的-在線性能。隨著全新 CVO Street Glide 和 CVO Road Glide 的推出,我們徹底重新構想了哈雷戴維森最具標誌性的兩款摩托車,並在此過程中重新定義了 CVO 的界限。

  • By rethinking these 2 models from the ground up, we are ushering in a new area of innovation, design, engineering and technology while expanding the definition of Harley-Davidson CVO and taking the Grand American touring experience to another level. The new CVO Street Glide and CVO Road Glide break the mold and reset the bar for the Pinnacle Harley-Davidson riding experience. We'll be sharing more about these motorcycles at our official launch in June.

    通過從頭開始重新思考這兩款車型,我們開創了創新、設計、工程和技術的新領域,同時擴展了哈雷戴維森 CVO 的定義,並將 Grand American 旅遊體驗提升到另一個層次。全新的 CVO Street Glide 和 CVO Road Glide 打破常規,重新設定 Pinnacle Harley-Davidson 騎行體驗的標準。我們將在 6 月的正式發布會上分享更多關於這些摩托車的信息。

  • Now I will hand over to Ryan Morrissey, President of the LiveWire to provide an update on the quarter at LiveWire. Ryan?

    現在,我將交給 LiveWire 總裁瑞安·莫里西 (Ryan Morrissey),以提供 LiveWire 本季度的最新情況。賴安?

  • Ryan Morrissey - Chief Electric Vehicle Officer of LiveWire

    Ryan Morrissey - Chief Electric Vehicle Officer of LiveWire

  • Thank you, Jochen. Good morning, everyone. As we close the first quarter of 2023, LiveWire is intensely focused on the final stages of bringing the brand to Europe and moving the Del Mar into production. Our launch events this week in Paris, London, Berlin and Amsterdam bring these 2 major efforts together and introduce European riders to the next great addition to the LiveWire portfolio. In addition to building up our European (inaudible) team, we have contracted with over 30 retail partners to join us in the field and take on a complementary role in our marketing, sales and service efforts.

    謝謝你,約臣。大家,早安。在 2023 年第一季度結束之際,LiveWire 高度關注將品牌帶到歐洲並將 Del Mar 投入生產的最後階段。我們本週在巴黎、倫敦、柏林和阿姆斯特丹舉行的發布活動將這兩項主要成果結合在一起,並向歐洲車手介紹 LiveWire 產品組合的下一個重要補充。除了建立我們的歐洲(聽不清)團隊外,我們還與 30 多家零售合作夥伴簽訂了合同,讓他們加入我們的行列,並在我們的營銷、銷售和服務工作中發揮補充作用。

  • We've also announced U.S. pricing for the Del Mar, in line with our original ambition for the bike, and the addition of a launch addition for Europe. Overall, we are very pleased with the reception to Del Mar in both the media and potential customers that are impressed by the technology in combination with the accessibility of the price point. We are moving into the final stages of preparing for production and expect to deliver the first bikes in the third quarter of 2023 as we communicated earlier this year.

    我們還宣布了 Del Mar 在美國的定價,這與我們最初對自行車的雄心一致,並增加了歐洲的發布附加功能。總的來說,我們對 Del Mar 受到媒體和潛在客戶的歡迎感到非常高興,他們對這項技術以及價格的可及性印象深刻。我們正進入生產準備的最後階段,預計將在 2023 年第三季度交付第一輛自行車,正如我們今年早些時候所傳達的那樣。

  • In terms of our business plan, we are within our expected parameters for the year with continued focus on getting new products to market and maximizing conversion of the reservations we collected since announcing the Del Mar in the U.S. last year. And now I'll hand it over to Gina Goetter to talk through the financial performance of Harley-Davidson and LiveWire in greater detail.

    就我們的業務計劃而言,我們在今年的預期參數之內繼續專注於將新產品推向市場並最大限度地轉化我們去年在美國宣布 Del Mar 以來收集到的預訂。現在我將把它交給 Gina Goetter 來更詳細地討論 Harley-Davidson 和 LiveWire 的財務表現。

  • Gina?

    吉娜?

  • Gina Goetter - CFO

    Gina Goetter - CFO

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Q1 2023 is the second full quarter under our new reporting structure with the 3 segments of HDMC, HDFS and LiveWire. Despite the decline in retails, the financial performance finished ahead of expectations. Pricing actions, unit mix, productivity and prudent cost management attributed to the significant HDMC margin increase versus prior year.

    謝謝大家,早上好。 2023 年第一季度是我們新報告結構下的第二個完整季度,包括 HDMC、HDFS 和 LiveWire 三個部分。儘管零售業下滑,但財務表現超出預期。定價行動、單位組合、生產力和審慎的成本管理歸因於 HDMC 利潤率與上一年相比顯著增加。

  • Turning to our financial results in the first quarter. Total consolidated HDI revenue of $1.8 billion was 20% higher than last year, with growth across HDMC and HDFS and a decline in LiveWire. HDMC revenue growth was driven by wholesale motorcycle unit growth of 14%, coupled with continued pricing realization across the portfolio. Harley-Davidson Financial Services segment revenue was up 16% versus prior year, up higher finance receivables. And the LiveWire segment decline of 25% was a result of lower volume across both electric motorcycles and electric balance bikes.

    談談我們第一季度的財務業績。綜合 HDI 總收入為 18 億美元,比去年增長 20%,其中 HDMC 和 HDFS 收入增長,而 LiveWire 收入下降。 HDMC 的收入增長受到 14% 的摩托車批發量增長以及整個產品組合持續定價的推動。 Harley-Davidson Financial Services 部門的收入比上一年增長了 16%,增加了更高的融資應收賬款。 LiveWire 細分市場下降 25% 是由於電動摩托車和電動平衡車銷量下降。

  • Total consolidated HDI operating income was $370 million and $80 million better than prior year. HDMC operating income of $336 million was 53% higher than the prior year, driven by the growth in revenue, coupled with gains in operating margin. HDFS operating income of $58 million declined by 32%, driven by higher interest expense and higher credit losses as macro conditions softened.

    HDI 綜合營業收入總額為 3.7 億美元,比上年增加 8000 萬美元。 HDMC 的營業收入為 3.36 億美元,比上年增長 53%,這主要受收入增長和營業利潤率增長的推動。 HDFS 營業收入為 5800 萬美元,下降了 32%,這是由於宏觀環境疲軟導致利息支出和信貸損失增加。

  • And finally, LiveWire operating loss of $25 million included a step-up in product development investment behind the launch of the Del Mar product and increased operating expense associated with standing up the new company. First quarter earnings per share of $2.04 compares to $1.45 last year as a result of the factors noted above as well as continued favorability in the below-the-line items.

    最後,LiveWire 的 2500 萬美元運營虧損包括在推出 Del Mar 產品後增加的產品開發投資以及與成立新公司相關的運營費用增加。由於上述因素以及線下項目的持續青睞,第一季度每股收益為 2.04 美元,而去年同期為 1.45 美元。

  • Global retail sales of new motorcycles were down at 12% versus the prior year. North American Q1 retail sales declined 17% due to a combination of [staggered rollouts] for our new products and anniversary models as well as a shift in the customer mindset given the current macro environment. APAC Q1 retail sales grew by 3% as we continued to experience strong demand across key markets, including high single-digit growth in Japan. EMEA Q1 retail sales declined by 6%, a decline that was primarily driven by our exit from Russia as well as the planned shift of our unit mix to focus on more profitable units.

    新摩托車的全球零售額與上一年相比下降了 12%。北美第一季度零售額下降了 17%,原因是我們的新產品和周年紀念模型 [交錯推出],以及當前宏觀環境下客戶心態的轉變。亞太地區第一季度零售額增長了 3%,主要市場的需求持續強勁,其中包括日本的高個位數增長。歐洲、中東和非洲地區第一季度零售額下降了 6%,下降的主要原因是我們退出俄羅斯,以及我們計劃將單位組合轉變為專注於利潤更高的單位。

  • As a result of this unit mix shift and improving FX rates, overall EMEA profitability improved. Excluding Russia, EMEA retail was down 1%. Latin America Q1 retail sales declined by 25% and was adversely impacted by regional economic conditions. However, even though retail units were down, we continued to deliver higher levels of profitability for the region.

    由於這種單位組合轉變和匯率提高,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的整體盈利能力得到改善。不包括俄羅斯在內,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的零售額下降了 1%。拉丁美洲第一季度零售額下降了 25%,並受到區域經濟狀況的不利影響。然而,儘管零售單位有所下降,但我們繼續為該地區帶來更高水平的盈利能力。

  • Improved production in the first quarter of 2023 and in the second half of last year has allowed us to improve product availability at our dealer network ahead of riding season. On a year-over-year basis, average inventory was up 70%, with the increase primarily attributed to healthier inventory levels compared to the very tight 2022. Inventory continues to be materially down versus both 2020 and 2019. And from a retail pricing standpoint, U.S. new motorcycle transaction prices finished within our desirability threshold of plus or minus 2 percentage points of MSRP.

    2023 年第一季度和去年下半年的產量提高使我們能夠在騎行季節之前提高經銷商網絡的產品可用性。與去年同期相比,平均庫存增長了 70%,增長主要歸因於與非常緊張的 2022 年相比更健康的庫存水平。與 2020 年和 2019 年相比,庫存繼續大幅下降。從零售定價的角度來看,美國新摩托車交易價格在建議零售價正負 2 個百分點的理想閾值內完成。

  • Looking at revenue, total HDMC revenue increased 21% in Q1. Focusing on the key drivers through the quarter, 12 points of growth came from volume driven by wholesale unit growth, 8 points of growth came from pricing and lower incentives through both global MSRP increases and pricing across the parts and accessories and apparel businesses. Mix contributed 3 points of growth as we continue to prioritize our most profitable models and markets, and finally, 2 points of negative impact came from foreign exchange.

    從收入來看,第一季度 HDMC 總收入增長了 21%。關注整個季度的主要驅動因素,12 個增長點來自批發單位增長推動的銷量,8 個增長點來自定價,以及通過全球 MSRP 增長和零部件及配件和服裝業務的定價降低激勵。隨著我們繼續優先考慮我們最賺錢的模式和市場,Mix 貢獻了 3 個增長點,最後,2 個負面影響來自外匯。

  • Looking more closely at margins, as a reminder, our commentary is now based on the updated definition of HDMC which excludes LiveWire. HDMC gross margin in the first quarter was 35.8%, which compares to 31.5% in the prior year. The improvement of 4.2 points was driven by pricing, unit mix and cost productivity, offsetting the impact of cost inflation and foreign exchange headwinds. We continue to see the supply chain environment improve, and we experienced more modest cost inflation, which was approximately 2%.

    更仔細地觀察邊距,作為提醒,我們的評論現在基於 HDMC 的更新定義,其中不包括 LiveWire。 HDMC 第一季度毛利率為 35.8%,上年同期為 31.5%。 4.2 個百分點的提高是由定價、單位組合和成本生產率推動的,抵消了成本通脹和外匯逆風的影響。我們繼續看到供應鏈環境改善,我們經歷了更溫和的成本通脹,約為 2%。

  • On a year-over-year basis, the deceleration continued to be largely driven by logistics, including lower expedited shipping expenses and freight rates. Raw materials and metal markets have also continued to moderate. HDMC operating margin improved to 21.6% in Q1 from 16.9% in the prior year. The improvement was driven primarily by the factors already noted.

    與去年同期相比,減速主要是由物流驅動的,包括較低的加急運輸費用和運費。原材料和金屬市場也繼續放緩。 HDMC 營業利潤率從去年同期的 16.9% 提高到第一季度的 21.6%。改進主要是由已經提到的因素驅動的。

  • HDFS operating income in Q1 was $58 million, down 32% compared to last year. The Q1 decline was driven by higher borrowing costs and higher credit losses. In Q1, HDFS' annualized retail credit loss ratio increased to 3.2%, which compares to an annualized loss of 1.9% in fiscal 2022. The increase in credit losses was driven by several factors relating to the current macro environment. In addition, the retail allowance for credit losses for the first quarter remained steady at 5.1%. Total retail loan originations in Q1 were down 15% while dealer inventory financing or wholesale receivables were up 88% to $1.2 billion behind stronger product availability compared to prior year. Total quarter end net financing receivables, including both retail loans and dealer inventory financing, was $7.6 billion, which was up 11% versus prior year.

    HDFS 第一季度的營業收入為 5800 萬美元,與去年相比下降了 32%。第一季度的下降是由更高的借貸成本和更高的信貸損失推動的。第一季度,HDFS 的年化零售信貸損失率上升至 3.2%,而 2022 財年的年化損失率為 1.9%。信貸損失的增加是由與當前宏觀環境相關的幾個因素推動的。此外,第一季度零售信貸損失準備金穩定在 5.1%。第一季度的零售貸款發放總額下降了 15%,而經銷商庫存融資或批發應收賬款增長 88% 至 12 億美元,原因是產品可用性比去年同期更高。包括零售貸款和經銷商庫存融資在內的季度末淨融資應收賬款總額為 76 億美元,比去年同期增長 11%。

  • Total interest expense in Q1 was up $31 million or 75% versus prior year. The increase was driven by higher average debt outstanding and a higher cost of funding. During Q1, we raised $1.25 billion in the capital markets. And at the end of the quarter, cash and committed bank in conduit facilities resulted in an HDFS liquidity position of $2.8 billion. This, together with the subsequent Euro MTN deal that we completed in April, has put HDFS in a very strong position from both a funding and liquidity position.

    第一季度的總利息支出比上年增加了 3100 萬美元或 75%。增加的原因是平均未償債務增加和融資成本增加。第一季度,我們在資本市場籌集了 12.5 億美元。在本季度末,現金和承諾的銀行管道設施導致 HDFS 流動性頭寸為 28 億美元。這與我們在 4 月份完成的後續 Euro MTN 交易一起,使 HDFS 在資金和流動性方面處於非常有利的地位。

  • For the LiveWire segment, first quarter revenue decreased by 25% from $10 million to $8 million, with the majority of the decline driven by its channel partners for electric balance bikes taking a more conservative approach to inventory. Operating loss of $25 million was in line with expectations, with the step-up in loss versus prior year attributed to the continued investment in product development related to the company's Del Mar platform and the delivery of its second electric motorcycle.

    對於 LiveWire 部門,第一季度收入從 1000 萬美元下降 25% 至 800 萬美元,下降的主要原因是其電動平衡車渠道合作夥伴採取了更為保守的庫存方式。 2500 萬美元的營業虧損符合預期,與上一年相比虧損有所增加,這歸因於對與公司 Del Mar 平台相關的產品開發的持續投資以及第二輛電動摩托車的交付。

  • Operating losses also incorporate the added cost of standing up a new organization. Wrapping up with Harley-Davidson, Inc. financial results. In the first quarter, we delivered $47 million of operating cash flow which was down from $139 million in the prior year. The decrease in operating cash flow was due primarily to an increase in receivable originations related to the timing and volume of wholesale shipments in Q1 2023. Total cash and cash equivalents ended at $1.6 billion, which is $167 million higher than at the end of Q1 prior year.

    經營虧損還包括建立新組織的額外成本。總結哈雷戴維森公司的財務業績。第一季度,我們交付了 4700 萬美元的運營現金流,低於去年同期的 1.39 億美元。經營現金流的減少主要是由於與 2023 年第一季度批發發貨的時間和數量相關的應收賬款增加。現金和現金等價物總額為 16 億美元,比上一季度末高出 1.67 億美元年。

  • This consolidated cash number includes $236 million from LiveWire. Additionally, during the first quarter, as part of our capital allocation strategy, we bought back 2 million shares of our stock at a value of $84 million. As we look to the rest of 2023, we are reaffirming our full year guidance, which expects HDMC revenue growth of 4% to 7%. The growth forecast incorporates approximately 2 points of unit growth, 1 to 2 points of mix as we continue to focus on our profitable core business and 1 to 2 points of pricing as we offset a more moderated inflationary outlook.

    這一綜合現金數字包括來自 LiveWire 的 2.36 億美元。此外,在第一季度,作為我們資本配置策略的一部分,我們以 8400 萬美元的價格回購了 200 萬股股票。展望 2023 年剩餘時間,我們重申我們的全年指引,預計 HDMC 收入增長 4% 至 7%。增長預測包括約 2 個單位增長點、1 到 2 個點的組合,因為我們繼續專注於我們有利可圖的核心業務,以及 1 到 2 個點的定價,因為我們抵消了更溫和的通脹前景。

  • Furthermore, we continue to expect the parts and accessories and apparel and licensing businesses to support top line growth in line with our Hardwire strategy.

    此外,我們繼續期望零件和配件以及服裝和許可業務能夠根據我們的 Hardwire 戰略支持收入增長。

  • We continue to expect HDMC operating income margin of 14.1% to 14.6%. We believe the anticipated positive impact from pricing and the cost productivity efforts within supply chain will offset expected cost inflation and currency headwinds. We expect HDFS operating income to decline by 20% to 25%. At this time, despite the continuation of higher losses in Q1, we are holding to our original guidance. There is risk that losses could stay high throughout the year. However, we have several actions underway that should help to improve the total annualized realized losses, including increased investment behind collections and stronger repossession efforts. We believe it is prudent to keep deeper into core riding season to assess the impact of loss rates for the year.

    我們繼續預計 HDMC 的營業利潤率為 14.1% 至 14.6%。我們認為,定價和供應鏈內的成本生產率努力帶來的預期積極影響將抵消預期的成本通脹和貨幣逆風。我們預計 HDFS 營業收入將下降 20% 至 25%。目前,儘管第一季度虧損繼續增加,但我們仍堅持原來的指導方針。存在全年虧損可能居高不下的風險。但是,我們正在採取幾項行動來幫助改善年化已實現損失總額,包括增加收款背後的投資和加強收回工作。我們認為,謹慎的做法是深入了解核心騎行季節,以評估今年損失率的影響。

  • There is no change to our LiveWire segment guidance. We continue to expect unit sales between 750 and 2,000 units, and an operating loss range of $115 million to $125 million. This forecast incorporates the updated launch timing on the new Del Mar product. And lastly, for total HDI, we continue to expect capital investments of $225 million to $250 million, as we continue to invest behind product development and capability enhancement.

    我們的 LiveWire 細分市場指南沒有變化。我們繼續預計銷量在 750 到 2,000 台之間,營業虧損在 1.15 億美元到 1.25 億美元之間。該預測結合了新 Del Mar 產品的更新發佈時間。最後,對於總 HDI,我們繼續預計資本投資為 2.25 億美元至 2.5 億美元,因為我們將繼續投資於產品開發和能力增強。

  • Through the first quarter, we have seen cost inflation generally in line with our expectations and continue to expect in aggregate about 2 to 3 points of inflation compared to 4% in 2022. Labor and warehousing costs continue to be the primary drivers of inflation with the deflation of moderation expected within logistics, freight and raw materials. We have continued to see improvements in supplier performance, which is also contributing to efficiency across the supply chain, and we remain on track to deliver our in-year cost productivity goal. From an annual cadence standpoint, we expect high-teens revenue growth in the first half for HDMC as well as high-teens operating margin as we lap the production shutdown from last year.

    整個第一季度,我們看到成本通脹總體上符合我們的預期,並繼續預計總體通脹率約為 2 至 3 個百分點,而 2022 年為 4%。勞動力和倉儲成本仍然是通脹的主要驅動因素,預計物流、貨運和原材料領域的通貨緊縮將放緩。我們繼續看到供應商績效有所改善,這也有助於提高整個供應鏈的效率,並且我們仍有望實現年內成本生產率目標。從年度節奏的角度來看,隨著我們從去年開始停產,我們預計 HDMC 上半年的收入增長將達到十幾歲,營業利潤率也將達到十幾歲。

  • We expect HDMC back half revenue and operating income to be down year-over-year as we get back to more normalized production and seasonality compared to what we experienced in 2022. For HDFS, we expect the operating income declines to moderate in the back half of the year as loss rates come down in line with historical seasonality patterns, and we begin to lap the interest rate increases in 2022.

    與 2022 年相比,我們預計 HDMC 的一半收入和營業收入將同比下降,因為我們恢復了更加正常的生產和季節性。對於 HDFS,我們預計營業收入的下降將在下半年放緩隨著損失率按照歷史季節性模式下降,我們開始在 2022 年加息。

  • As we look to 2023 capital allocation, our priorities remain to fund growth of the Hardwire initiatives, which includes the capital expenditures mentioned previously, paying dividends and executing discretionary share repurchases. In summary, we are pleased with the resiliency of our financial results through the first quarter despite a challenging retail environment, and we remain focused on achieving our targets throughout this year.

    在我們展望 2023 年的資本配置時,我們的優先事項仍然是為 Hardwire 計劃的增長提供資金,其中包括前面提到的資本支出、支付股息和執行酌情股票回購。總而言之,儘管零售環境充滿挑戰,但我們對第一季度財務業績的彈性感到滿意,我們將繼續專注於實現今年的目標。

  • And with that, I'll turn it back to the operator to take your questions.

    有了這個,我會把它轉回給接線員來回答你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Robbie Ohmes of Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Robbie Ohmes。

  • Robert Frederick Ohmes - MD & Senior US Consumer Analyst

    Robert Frederick Ohmes - MD & Senior US Consumer Analyst

  • I'll try and make this one question and obey the rules here. I think my question is on the sort of the shipments in first quarter and maybe help us understand for the -- in North America for the dealer network. Was there a pull forward of shipments into the first quarter the 45,000 dealer unit inventory levels that you ended the quarter at, is that in the range that you want the dealers to be in?

    我試著提出這個問題並遵守這裡的規則。我認為我的問題是關於第一季度的出貨量,這可能有助於我們了解北美的經銷商網絡。第一季度的出貨量是否提前到您在本季度結束時的 45,000 個經銷商單位庫存水平,是否在您希望經銷商處於的範圍內?

  • And maybe help us think about how you think riding season will play out and what -- how we should think about dealer inventory levels as we move through this year. And I think you mentioned the customer mindset in the current macro environment may be changing. Maybe just help us understand how we should just think about how the year and I know everything is constantly changing, but how it looks like it could play out right now.

    也許可以幫助我們思考您認為騎行季節將如何結束,以及我們應該如何考慮今年的經銷商庫存水平。而且我認為您提到當前宏觀環境中的客戶心態可能正在發生變化。也許只是幫助我們理解我們應該如何思考這一年,我知道一切都在不斷變化,但現在看起來它會如何發揮作用。

  • Gina Goetter - CFO

    Gina Goetter - CFO

  • Robbie, you always do a fabulous job of asking 3 questions in 1 question. That is quite remarkable. I love it. But I'm going to turn that over to Edel to take the first part. I'm just joking with you.

    羅比,你總是在 1 個問題中提出 3 個問題,做得非常出色。這是非常了不起的。我喜歡它。但我要把它交給 Edel 來做第一部分。我只是在和你開玩笑。

  • Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

    Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

  • So with regards to where we see the inventory position as we ended quarter 1, we are in a much healthier position than we were last year than we have been for a couple of years, quite frankly, as we enter the height of the riding season. We feel comfortable that we have the right levels to support the riding season in the all-critical Q2 and Q3, while remaining below what we think were damaging levels of inventory in prior years, 2019 and before that. We tracked it very closely, as you can imagine, in terms of both the family, the mix, but most importantly, the metric around MSRP realization and as was noted in the prepared comments, this remains within the band that we consider desirable plus/minus 2%. So we think we are set up properly for the bulk of the season as it comes in Q2 and Q3.

    因此,關於我們在第一季度結束時看到的庫存狀況,坦率地說,隨著我們進入騎行季節的高峰期,我們的狀況比去年要好得多。 .我們感到欣慰的是,我們有合適的水平來支持至關重要的第二季度和第三季度的騎行季節,同時保持在我們認為的前幾年、2019 年及之前的破壞性庫存水平以下。正如您可以想像的那樣,我們非常密切地跟踪了它,在家庭、組合方面,但最重要的是,圍繞 MSRP 實現的指標,正如準備好的評論中所指出的,這仍然在我們認為理想的範圍內加/負 2%。所以我們認為我們已經為第二季度和第三季度的大部分時間做好了準備。

  • Now with regards to your question on the overall sentiment of the consumer and what we're seeing in retail dynamics I mean it is obviously clear in an environment of rising rates and inflation that there is some moderation in customer behavior. And I think we saw that also in Q1 since it was also very early in the riding season. However, overall, we continue to emphasize the message around affordability, focusing on monthly rates. We continue to drive traffic into the dealerships where we think we have the best chance of allowing our dealers to work with each individual consumer on finding the right bike for them. And we continue to emphasize the right tools for our channel partners as well as for HDFS to allow each individual consumer to find the bike that is best suited for them.

    現在關於你關於消費者整體情緒的問題以及我們在零售動態中看到的情況,我的意思是,在利率和通貨膨脹率上升的環境中,客戶行為明顯有所緩和。而且我認為我們也在第一季度看到了這一點,因為它也處於騎行季節的早期。但是,總的來說,我們繼續強調有關負擔能力的信息,重點是月費率。我們繼續將流量吸引到經銷商處,我們認為我們有最好的機會讓我們的經銷商與每個消費者合作,為他們找到合適的自行車。我們繼續強調為我們的渠道合作夥伴和 HDFS 提供正確的工具,讓每個消費者都能找到最適合他們的自行車。

  • So we think with all of these pieces in place, we have the right tools to support the riding season and to retain flat to slightly positive retail outlook for the year.

    因此,我們認為,在所有這些都到位的情況下,我們擁有正確的工具來支持騎行季節並保持今年持平或略微樂觀的零售前景。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Craig Kennison with Baird.

    你的下一個問題來自 Craig Kennison 與 Baird 的對話。

  • Craig R. Kennison - Director of Research Operations and Senior Research Analyst

    Craig R. Kennison - Director of Research Operations and Senior Research Analyst

  • Gina, I got a going away math -- going away gift for you, which is a math question.

    吉娜,我有一個離開數學——送給你的離開禮物,這是一道數學題。

  • Gina Goetter - CFO

    Gina Goetter - CFO

  • Love it. Okay.

    愛它。好的。

  • Craig R. Kennison - Director of Research Operations and Senior Research Analyst

    Craig R. Kennison - Director of Research Operations and Senior Research Analyst

  • I'm looking at -- and I'm looking at your Slide 17, and it's very helpful in that you assume like 23,000 fewer wholesale unit shipments versus 2019. I think we can run math on that, and that would imply shipments near 190,000 bikes, but you also made a comment about wholesale shipments being up year-over-year, which would imply more than that? I know it's not a huge gap, but I'm just trying to really fine-tune what your wholesale shipment expectation is for the year?

    我正在查看 - 我正在查看您的幻燈片 17,這非常有幫助,因為您假設批發單位出貨量與 2019 年相比減少了 23,000。我認為我們可以對此進行數學運算,這意味著出貨量接近 190,000自行車,但您還評論說批發出貨量同比增長,這意味著更多?我知道這不是一個巨大的差距,但我只是想真正微調你們今年的批發出貨量預期是多少?

  • Gina Goetter - CFO

    Gina Goetter - CFO

  • What we've said that's embedded in our guidance of that revenue growth of 4% to 7% is roughly, call it, 1 to 2 points of wholesale unit growth. So take where we landed there in '22 and 1% to 2% ahead.

    我們所說的包含在我們 4% 至 7% 的收入增長指導中的內容大致是批發單位增長的 1 至 2 個百分點。因此,以我們在 22 年登陸的地方為例,領先 1% 到 2%。

  • Craig R. Kennison - Director of Research Operations and Senior Research Analyst

    Craig R. Kennison - Director of Research Operations and Senior Research Analyst

  • And then just to follow up on that then. To what extent -- I got to believe retail came in a little lighter than you expected in Q1. How are you able to hang on to kind of your shipment guidance given what looks like a softer start to the year?

    然後只是跟進。在多大程度上——我不得不相信零售業在第一季度比你預期的要輕一些。鑑於今年開局似乎較為疲軟,您如何能夠堅持您的出貨指導?

  • Gina Goetter - CFO

    Gina Goetter - CFO

  • Yes. I think that we feel pretty good with what we're seeing for Q2 and Q3. Remember, as we talked about our retail cadence. Last quarter, we said Q1 and Q4 were going to be down versus a year ago, and Q2 and Q3, we're going to be positive. And as we look at some of the factors that are influencing our Q2 and Q3, so this -- the rollout of our new products, the CVO that was just announced yesterday, the anniversary event that we have coming up. Plus, keep in mind that we had the production suspension last year during Q2 and Q3. We feel pretty confident that, that growth that we're expecting in Q2 and Q3 will come.

    是的。我認為我們對第二季度和第三季度的情況感覺很好。請記住,當我們談到我們的零售節奏時。上個季度,我們說第一季度和第四季度將與一年前相比下降,而第二季度和第三季度,我們將是積極的。當我們審視影響我們第二季度和第三季度的一些因素時,這就是我們新產品的推出,昨天剛剛宣布的 CVO,我們即將舉行的周年紀念活動。另外,請記住我們去年第二季度和第三季度停產。我們非常有信心,我們預期的第二季度和第三季度的增長將會到來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Joseph Altobello with Raymond James.

    你的下一個問題來自 Joseph Altobello 和 Raymond James 的台詞。

  • Joseph Nicholas Altobello - MD & Senior Analyst

    Joseph Nicholas Altobello - MD & Senior Analyst

  • I guess first question, just a follow-up on Craig. Maybe kind of give us what you're seeing so far in terms of retail in April? Obviously, you have easy compares, I guess, in May and June. But I'm curious what you're seeing so far in Q2.

    我想第一個問題,只是克雷格的後續問題。也許可以告訴我們您到目前為止在 4 月份的零售方面看到了什麼?顯然,我猜你可以輕鬆比較 5 月和 6 月的情況。但我很好奇你在第二季度到目前為止看到了什麼。

  • Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

    Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. Thanks, Joseph, Jochen here. We've seen -- certainly seen an improvement in April, but today's call is really about the first quarter. But yes, as I said, we're happy with the improvement we've seen so far as we are now starting to really get into the riding season.

    是的。謝謝,約瑟夫,這裡是 Jochen。我們已經看到 - 當然看到 4 月份有所改善,但今天的電話會議實際上是關於第一季度的。但是,是的,正如我所說,我們對目前所看到的改進感到滿意,因為我們現在開始真正進入騎行季節。

  • Joseph Nicholas Altobello - MD & Senior Analyst

    Joseph Nicholas Altobello - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And just a follow-up on an earlier question regarding inventory. Obviously, you're in a much better position than you were, call it, 4 years ago. And I think I asked this question on the last call, but you guys expect some modest pipeline still this year. I don't know how you define modest, but is it, call it, 3,000 to 5,000 bikes that you expect to end the year higher versus '22?

    好的。只是對先前關於庫存的問題的跟進。顯然,你的處境比 4 年前要好得多。我想我在上次電話會議上問了這個問題,但你們預計今年仍有一些適度的管道。我不知道你如何定義適度,但你預計今年結束時 3,000 到 5,000 輛自行車會比 22 年高嗎?

  • Gina Goetter - CFO

    Gina Goetter - CFO

  • Joe, this is Gina. We're not -- I'm not going to give you an exact number, but I think the sentiment is correct. So as we think about coming into this year, this was the first year that we felt like we were finally getting back to healthier levels of inventory, healthier, not the healthiest, but healthier. So we feel like as we exit this year as a '23, we still have some room to fill a bit.

    喬,這是吉娜。我們不是——我不會給你一個確切的數字,但我認為這種情緒是正確的。因此,當我們考慮進入今年時,這是我們覺得我們終於回到更健康的庫存水平的第一年,更健康,不是最健康,而是更健康。所以我們覺得當我們今年以 23 歲的身份退出時,我們還有一些空間可以填補。

  • Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

    Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

  • And what we have to bear in mind, if we consider the end of the year that we are obviously prepping up for '24 and that decision we will make later in the year of how many bikes we're going to pre-produce in order to be ready with the '24 riding season or with '24 as a calendar year. So bear that in mind as well.

    我們必須牢記的是,如果我們考慮到今年年底,我們顯然正在為 24 年做準備,我們將在今年晚些時候做出我們將按順序預生產多少輛自行車的決定為 '24 騎行季或 '24 作為日曆年做好準備。所以請記住這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of James Hardiman with Citigroup.

    你的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 James Hardiman。

  • James Lloyd Hardiman - Director

    James Lloyd Hardiman - Director

  • So maybe just a couple of points of clarification around retail. Jochen, I think you said you saw an improvement in April. Is that an improvement versus substantial declines in the third quarter or was April actually up? And maybe you can help us with sort of the Riding Academy channel fill that I think was in the retail number. Basically, what I'm just trying to figure out, I think you guys are still targeting retail growth for the year. I'm assuming that presumes a big growth number for the second quarter. Maybe just help us dimensionalize that.

    因此,也許只是關於零售的幾點澄清。 Jochen,我想你說過你在四月份看到了進步。與第三季度的大幅下降相比,這是一種改善,還是 4 月份實際上有所上升?也許您可以幫助我們進行某種我認為零售數量中的騎術學院頻道填充。基本上,我只是想弄清楚,我認為你們今年的目標仍然是零售增長。我假設第二季度的增長數字很大。也許只是幫助我們將其維度化。

  • Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

    Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. Look, April is not even over yet. We still have a week to go. So other than what I just said, I'd rather not provide any additional color to it. But as I said, certainly, we've seen an improvement in April. Riding Academy are pretty small numbers. So that in the overall retail figure, they don't really have a significant impact. But as Gina said, if you look at the comps, if you look at the weight of the riding season in Q2 and Q3, bearing in mind that we had this production shutdown, and we had limited bikes available in retail, we feel confident that the guidance are flat to slightly up is achievable. And that is all based on a measured outlook on the wider economic picture, as I've highlighted earlier.

    是的。看,四月還沒有結束。我們還有一周的時間。所以除了我剛才說的,我寧願不給它提供任何額外的顏色。但正如我所說,當然,我們在 4 月份看到了改善。騎術學院的人數很少。因此,在整體零售數據中,它們並沒有真正產生重大影響。但正如 Gina 所說,如果你看一下 comps,如果你看一下第二季度和第三季度騎行季節的重量,請記住我們停產了,而且我們的零售自行車數量有限,我們有信心可以實現從持平到小幅上漲的指導。正如我之前強調的那樣,這一切都基於對更廣泛經濟前景的審慎展望。

  • James Lloyd Hardiman - Director

    James Lloyd Hardiman - Director

  • And to be clear, the flat to slightly up is both wholesale, which I think you said you're going to get a couple of points for, but also retail, ultimately?

    需要明確的是,持平到略微上漲既是批發,我想你說過你會得到幾個點,但最終也是零售?

  • Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

    Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

  • That -- well, that comment is primarily referring to retail, but yes, if you do the math, that would indicate that, that applies is to wholesale too.

    那 - 好吧,該評論主要是指零售,但是,是的,如果你進行數學計算,那將表明,這也適用於批發。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Gerrick Johnson with BMO Capital Markets.

    你的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Gerrick Johnson。

  • Gerrick Luke Johnson - Senior Toys and Leisure Analyst

    Gerrick Luke Johnson - Senior Toys and Leisure Analyst

  • Jochen or Edel, can you please discuss the strategy behind the new release cadence rather than dropping all the CVOs and anniversary models at once. You released 1 CVO model and have a couple more coming in June. How about the rest and why the change in strategy?

    Jochen 或 Edel,能否請您討論一下新發布節奏背後的策略,而不是一次放棄所有 CVO 和周年紀念模型。您發布了 1 個 CVO 模型,並在 6 月發布了更多模型。其餘的怎麼樣,為什麼要改變戰略?

  • Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

    Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. Thank you very much for the question.

    是的。非常感謝你的提問。

  • Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

    Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Go ahead.

    前進。

  • Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

    Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Let me just maybe characterize the Q1 component, and then I'll turn it back over to Jochen to give you the sense for the overall strategy. So we took a very deliberate decision at the start of this model year to release our anniversary bikes in a different cadence than historically in the previous anniversary years. We want to maintain that level of excitement throughout the year. We think it's really important that we also have a lot of excitement around our anniversary event in Milwaukee this summer. So we have staggered the launch of the products throughout the year to make sure that we have a little bit of excitement and traffic building activities in the dealership related to that anniversary deliveries throughout the year. So certainly a different cadence, but we think one that will support traffic and will support excitement throughout the bulk of the riding season.

    讓我來描述 Q1 組件的特徵,然後我會把它轉回給 Jochen,讓你了解整體戰略。因此,我們在這個車型年開始時做出了一個非常慎重的決定,以不同於以往週年紀念年的歷史節奏發布我們的周年紀念自行車。我們希望全年保持這種興奮程度。我們認為今年夏天在密爾沃基舉行的周年紀念活動讓我們興奮不已,這一點非常重要。因此,我們在全年錯開產品的發佈時間,以確保我們在經銷商中有一些與全年周年紀念日交付相關的興奮和交通建設活動。所以肯定是一種不同的節奏,但我們認為這種節奏會支持交通,並會在整個騎行季節的大部分時間裡支持興奮。

  • And then the same thing, I think we'll go for our CVOs. It was a significant impact as we talk about retail trends in Q1, it was a significant impact as we compare to prior years, but it allowed us, I think, to have an extraordinary reveal or initial reveals yesterday that will continue throughout the year. And maybe I'll turn it back to you, Jochen, to talk a little bit more about the CVO launch.

    然後同樣的事情,我想我們會選擇我們的 CVO。當我們談論第一季度的零售趨勢時,這是一個重大影響,與往年相比,這是一個重大影響,但我認為,它讓我們能夠在昨天進行一次非凡的展示或初步展示,並將持續全年。也許我會把它轉回給你,Jochen,多談談 CVO 的發布。

  • Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

    Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. I mean, not much to add. Thanks, Edel. This is -- we are timing our bikes based on what we feel is creating excitement throughout the year, obviously, primarily targeted towards the first half of the year. And then the necessity is also based on when the bikes are ready to be manufactured and fully engineered and ready to go. So that obviously also plays into the launch. But overall, we think the timing is good timing for us, and we wanted to keep big excitement and grow the excitement through the riding season, which we certainly will be accomplishing based on the initial feedback we've received on the launch video of the new CVO.

    是的。我的意思是,沒什麼可補充的。謝謝,埃德爾。這是 - 我們正在根據我們全年創造興奮的感覺來安排我們的自行車時間,顯然,主要針對今年上半年。然後,必要性還取決於自行車何時準備好製造、完全設計和準備就緒。所以這顯然也影響了發布。但總的來說,我們認為時機對我們來說是個好時機,我們希望在騎行季節保持興奮並增加興奮,根據我們在發布視頻中收到的初步反饋,我們肯定會實現這一目標新的 CVO。

  • Gerrick Luke Johnson - Senior Toys and Leisure Analyst

    Gerrick Luke Johnson - Senior Toys and Leisure Analyst

  • Okay. That sounds great. And there's a new motorcycle segment called Lightweight. So what models are in that?

    好的。聽起來不錯。還有一個名為 Lightweight 的新摩托車細分市場。那麼裡面有哪些型號呢?

  • Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

    Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Go ahead, Edel.

    去吧,埃德爾。

  • Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

    Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

  • That includes our HD 350 and 500 launch in China as well as in North America, it accounts for the Riding Academy bikes.

    這包括我們在中國和北美推出的 HD 350 和 500,它還包括 Riding Academy 自行車。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Noah Zatzkin with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    你的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Noah Zatzkin。

  • Noah Seth Zatzkin - Research Analyst

    Noah Seth Zatzkin - Research Analyst

  • Just on the credit loss rate, 3.2% in the first quarter. Could you kind of help us understand what normal seasonality looks like from a loss rate percentage? And then just how you're thinking about the guide relative to that rate as you progress through the year. How should we think about kind of that rate as it relates to potential need to adjust the guidance?

    單看信用損失率,一季度為3.2%。您能幫助我們從損失率百分比中了解正常的季節性嗎?然後,隨著一年的進展,您將如何考慮與該比率相關的指南。我們應該如何考慮與調整指導的潛在需要相關的那種比率?

  • David Viney - VP & Treasurer

    David Viney - VP & Treasurer

  • This is David. So first of all, I think it's important to understand that the realized credit losses in Q1 were about the same as they were in Q4. So we had $52 million of realized credit losses in Q4, about $52.6 million in Q1. So it was a very similar dollar amount but a slightly higher percentage because the receivables balance have dropped a little. The other thing that's important to understand is that the HDFS loan portfolio exhibits much greater seasonality than a typical auto loan portfolio.

    這是大衛。所以首先,我認為重要的是要了解第一季度已實現的信用損失與第四季度大致相同。因此,我們在第四季度實現了 5200 萬美元的已實現信貸損失,在第一季度約為 5260 萬美元。所以這是一個非常相似的美元金額,但百分比略高,因為應收賬款餘額略有下降。另一件需要了解的重要事情是,HDFS 貸款組合比典型的汽車貸款組合表現出更大的季節性。

  • So what we tend to see, because of the riding season, we tend to see people pay on time through the riding season, and then we start to see delinquencies peak late in the riding season into Q4. That ultimately manifest themselves in credit losses in Q1. And we've certainly seen that over the past couple of quarters. It's also important to understand what was the driver of that increased loss. Delinquencies are not particularly elevated. They're really in the range that we've seen over the last 10 years or so. What we're starting to see though is that there's a subset of borrowers who are defaulting, and then when they default, there's been really a weaker repossession industry. And there was some declines in retail bike values last year as well.

    所以我們傾向於看到,由於騎行季節,我們傾向於看到人們在整個騎行季節按時付款,然後我們開始看到拖欠率在騎行季節後期達到第四季度達到頂峰。這最終體現在第一季度的信貸損失中。在過去的幾個季度中,我們當然已經看到了這一點。了解導致損失增加的原因是什麼也很重要。拖欠率並沒有特別高。它們確實在我們過去 10 年左右看到的範圍內。不過,我們開始看到的是,有一部分借款人違約,然後當他們違約時,收回行業確實較弱。去年零售自行車價值也有所下降。

  • So as you start to see losses or defaults coming through, a lot of people left the repossession industry during COVID. And so because of the repossession industry being weaker, those lower residual values on bikes that has ultimately led to a higher severity of credit loss as opposed to the losses that we've seen previously. Where we think about the rest of the year, first of all, I mentioned the seasonality. So we would expect that loss rate to reduce through Q2 and Q3. So we would -- that would lead -- by definition, would lead to a lower loss rate for the year. But as Gina mentioned in the prepared remarks, a number of things that we've been working on. We've been improving our origination strategy. We've been improving the score cutoffs and reducing loan-to-value ratios.

    因此,當您開始看到損失或違約發生時,很多人在 COVID 期間離開了回收行業。因此,由於回收行業較弱,那些較低的自行車殘值最終導致了更嚴重的信用損失,而不是我們之前看到的損失。在我們考慮今年剩餘時間的地方,首先,我提到了季節性。因此,我們預計損失率會在第二季度和第三季度降低。所以我們會 - 這會導致 - 根據定義,會導致今年的損失率降低。但正如吉娜在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,我們一直在努力做一些事情。我們一直在改進我們的原創策略。我們一直在提高分數截止值並降低貸款價值比。

  • We've improved our servicing activities, so we put accelerated calling efforts in place. We're using texting in late-stage delinquencies and also making a lot of enhancements to our repossession strategy to improve the severity of loss. So all of that combined leads us to what we think will be a lower annual rate for the year -- and that's why we're indicating in our guidance that we feel confident that we can call the guidance for the year. Gina, if you want to add something to that?

    我們改進了我們的服務活動,因此我們加快了呼叫工作。我們在後期拖欠中使用短信,並且還對我們的收回策略進行了大量改進,以改善損失的嚴重程度。因此,所有這些加在一起導致我們得出我們認為今年的年增長率較低的結果——這就是為什麼我們在我們的指導中表示我們有信心我們可以稱之為今年的指導。吉娜,如果你想補充什麼?

  • Gina Goetter - CFO

    Gina Goetter - CFO

  • (inaudible) when you say lower annual rate for the year, lower than the 3.2% that we posted in Q1. And we added a slide to the presentation, Slide 12 to give everyone kind of a sense for the seasonality, the historical seasonality that David was talking about.

    (聽不清)當你說今年的年利率較低時,低於我們在第一季度公佈的 3.2%。我們在演示文稿中添加了一張幻燈片,即第 12 張幻燈片,讓每個人都能對季節性、大衛所說的歷史季節性有所了解。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your final question comes from the line of David MacGregor with Longbow Research.

    您的最後一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 David MacGregor。

  • David Sutherland MacGregor - President & Senior Analyst

    David Sutherland MacGregor - President & Senior Analyst

  • I guess a couple of questions. First of all, you referenced the raw material and logistics inflation is down, can you just remind us on the extent to which that's hedged or locked in at this point versus variable? I'm just trying to get a sense of how much risk there might be over the balance of the year in those factors.

    我猜有幾個問題。首先,您提到原材料和物流通脹下降,您能否提醒我們此時對沖或鎖定的程度與可變程度相比?我只是想了解這些因素在今年剩餘時間裡可能存在多少風險。

  • Gina Goetter - CFO

    Gina Goetter - CFO

  • David, this is Gina. From a raw material standpoint, keep in mind that we don't buy a lot of raw materials themselves like they are buying the gidgets and the gadgets that go to -- come from the suppliers. So I would say from a hedging -- yes, so from a hedging standpoint, it's not a material kind of risk or opportunity for us on the raw material line, I would say.

    大衛,這是吉娜。從原材料的角度來看,請記住,我們不會自己購買大量原材料,就像他們購買小工具和小工具一樣——來自供應商。所以我想從套期保值的角度說——是的,所以從套期保值的角度來看,這對我們在原材料線上來說不是一種實質性的風險或機會,我會說。

  • As we look to kind of the balance of the year and what we saw play through in Q1, we've absolutely seen the metal markets come back down. And they're routing around a little bit, but we've kind of taken the current -- that current forecast out for the rest of the year. And we do expect to see logistics rates continue to stay low. They're much lower than where they were last year, particularly within kind of the ocean freight.

    當我們回顧今年的平衡以及我們在第一季度看到的情況時,我們絕對看到金屬市場回落。他們正在一點點走動,但我們已經採取了當前 - 當前對今年剩餘時間的預測。我們確實希望看到物流費率繼續保持低位。它們比去年低得多,尤其是在海運方面。

  • As we talked about last quarter, we're continuing to see inflation within the labor rates and the warehousing. So overall for the year, we're not seeing 2 terribly different inflation outlook than what we talked about last quarter.

    正如我們在上個季度談到的那樣,我們繼續看到勞動力價格和倉儲方面的通貨膨脹。因此,今年總體而言,我們沒有看到與上一季度所討論的通脹前景截然不同的 2 個。

  • David Sutherland MacGregor - President & Senior Analyst

    David Sutherland MacGregor - President & Senior Analyst

  • Right. Okay. And then I guess we should get a LiveWire question in here. So maybe a question for Ryan here. But you mentioned that you've got sufficient cash and liquidity for 2023 business plan. But I've got a slowing macro here. We've already sort of talked about consumer sentiment. What gives you confidence that you can continue to fund development of the rate that preserves your market leadership in that product category?

    正確的。好的。然後我想我們應該在這裡得到一個 LiveWire 問題。所以也許這裡有一個問題要問 Ryan。但你提到你有足夠的現金和流動資金來製定 2023 年的商業計劃。但我這裡有一個減速宏。我們已經談到了消費者情緒。是什麼讓您有信心繼續資助利率的開發,以保持您在該產品類別中的市場領導地位?

  • Ryan Morrissey - Chief Electric Vehicle Officer of LiveWire

    Ryan Morrissey - Chief Electric Vehicle Officer of LiveWire

  • Yes. I think a couple of things, I mean, as you stated, as we look at the first quarter here, in particular, I think, largely in line with our expectations, as we stated the macro environments contributing to that. But I think as we look at the long term, of course, is the important part for us to stay on track is to just continue with the product development and then continue to grow units. And key to that, of course, is the product development on the Del Mar side, which we just released this past week. And we're quite pleased with the reception for that bike, it's obviously a very important strategic pillar for us going forward. And then, of course, the introduction into Europe.

    是的。我認為有幾件事,我的意思是,正如你所說,當我們在這裡看第一季度時,特別是,我認為,這在很大程度上符合我們的預期,正如我們所說的宏觀環境促成的那樣。但我認為,從長遠來看,當然,對我們來說,保持正軌的重要部分是繼續進行產品開發,然後繼續增加單位。當然,關鍵是我們上周剛剛發布的 Del Mar 方面的產品開發。我們對那輛自行車的反響非常滿意,這顯然是我們前進的一個非常重要的戰略支柱。然後,當然是引入歐洲。

  • So we think with the 2 of those things, we continue to get greater scale, which, of course, improves the overall economics. So the combination of that and then obviously the starting cash position and our burn rate at this point. We're comfortably able to continue with our plan and stay on track.

    因此,我們認為通過其中的兩件事,我們將繼續擴大規模,這當然會提高整體經濟效益。所以結合起來,然後顯然是起始現金頭寸和我們此時的燃燒率。我們能夠輕鬆地繼續我們的計劃並保持在正軌上。

  • David Sutherland MacGregor - President & Senior Analyst

    David Sutherland MacGregor - President & Senior Analyst

  • Are you still comfortably on track with the plan if you end up at the low end of that shipment range that you've got in the guidance?

    如果您最終處於指導中所提供的出貨範圍的低端,您是否仍能輕鬆地按計劃進行?

  • Ryan Morrissey - Chief Electric Vehicle Officer of LiveWire

    Ryan Morrissey - Chief Electric Vehicle Officer of LiveWire

  • Yes. Even at the low end of that guidance, we'll be at a similar cash burn. So we'll still be on track and within the parameters of the plan.

    是的。即使在該指導的低端,我們也會面臨類似的現金消耗。所以我們仍然會在計劃的參數範圍內走上正軌。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Rolle with D.A. Davidson.

    你的下一個問題來自 Brandon Rolle 和 D.A.戴維森。

  • Brandon Rollé - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Brandon Rollé - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Just a quick question on the new versus used pricing gap. Could you talk about what you're seeing this year in terms of that gap and how it might have changed with used values taking a pretty big drop to start this year versus prior years. And then maybe also talk about just the availability of used inventory in the market right now.

    只是一個關於新舊價格差距的快速問題。你能談談你今年在這個差距方面看到了什麼,以及它可能如何隨著今年開始與往年相比使用價值大幅下降而發生變化。然後也許還談論現在市場上二手庫存的可用性。

  • Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

    Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thank you for the question. So certainly, we are seeing some moderation in that, as you mentioned in terms of the price gap, but certainly still above historical levels overall, the dynamics in the used in the new market are different this year than in prior years, given the higher availability of new -- so we certainly expected some of that shift, and it is playing out as such.

    感謝你的提問。所以當然,我們看到了一些緩和,正如你提到的價格差距,但總體上肯定仍高於歷史水平,今年新市場的二手車動態與往年不同,因為更高新的可用性 - 所以我們當然期待一些轉變,並且它正在發揮作用。

  • Obviously, for us, use is a very important part of the overall ecosystem and maintaining a healthy used market is part of how we continue to build growth in the new market. But certainly, there is a different dynamic this year than in prior years. So we remain, I think, with a healthier dynamic than we would have seen in historical terms.

    顯然,對我們來說,使用是整個生態系統中非常重要的一部分,保持健康的二手市場是我們如何繼續在新市場建立增長的一部分。但可以肯定的是,今年的動態與往年不同。因此,我認為,我們仍然保持著比我們在歷史上看到的更健康的動力。

  • Brandon Rollé - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Brandon Rollé - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And just the availability of inventory there? Are you see anything more entering the market? Or is it in line with prior years?

    好的。偉大的。那裡有庫存嗎?你看到有更多的東西進入市場嗎?還是與往年一致?

  • Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

    Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

  • I would say it's largely as expected. Again, the dynamic of the past couple of years has been a little bit different than we would have seen historically given some of the production interruptions over the past couple of years. So some of that is working itself out as we go through the year.

    我會說這在很大程度上符合預期。同樣,鑑於過去幾年的一些生產中斷,過去幾年的動態與我們從歷史上看到的略有不同。因此,隨著我們度過這一年,其中一些正在解決。

  • Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

    Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

  • And bearing in mind that especially now for the first quarter, much healthier new inventory available in the dealerships.

    請記住,尤其是現在第一季度,經銷商中有更健康的新庫存。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • You have a follow-up question from Robbie Ohmes of Bank of America.

    美國銀行的 Robbie Ohmes 提出了後續問題。

  • Robert Frederick Ohmes - MD & Senior US Consumer Analyst

    Robert Frederick Ohmes - MD & Senior US Consumer Analyst

  • So I think this is for you, Gina, because this is, I guess, your last call with us, with Harley and you will be missed. But I was hoping you could talk about the gross margin outlook for HDMC. The EBIT margin guide, obviously, what you put up in the first quarter implies moderation. The gross margin for HDMC in the first quarter was pretty incredible. Can you just help us understand what gross margin -- how we should be thinking about gross margin trends off of that incredible first quarter gross margin you guys put up through the next quarter, the next 3 quarters within the guidance.

    所以我想這是給你的,吉娜,因為我想這是你和我們最後一次通話,和哈利在一起,你會被錯過的。但我希望你能談談 HDMC 的毛利率前景。顯然,您在第一季度提出的息稅前利潤率指南意味著適度。第一季度 HDMC 的毛利率非常驚人。你能不能幫助我們了解什麼是毛利率——我們應該如何從你們在下一季度、接下來的三個季度中提出的令人難以置信的第一季度毛利率中考慮毛利率趨勢。

  • Gina Goetter - CFO

    Gina Goetter - CFO

  • Absolutely, thanks for the question. Q1 is definitely going to be the strongest margin quarter for us. We really had everything going our way in terms of strong unit delivery, the mix of those units was very, very favorable. From a pricing standpoint, we still have the benefit of both model year '22 pricing that went in midyear in some of our markets, plus the model year '23 pricing.

    當然,謝謝你的問題。第一季度肯定會成為我們利潤率最高的季度。就強勁的單位交付而言,我們確實一切順利,這些單位的組合非常非常有利。從定價的角度來看,我們仍然受益於一些市場年中的 22 年車型定價以及 23 年車型定價。

  • And then from a productivity standpoint, we're on track and that offset the cost inflation that we were seeing. As that supply chain -- the broader supply chain has started to stabilize out a bit, we did see expedited shipping rates come down pretty substantially in first quarter. So we kind of had all of the factors we're really firing on all cylinders, which led to that big margin gain. As we think about then the balance of the year, overall, we still feel pretty comfortable in the guide that we've given. And some of the factors that were positive, so like mix, as an example, was very positive in the first quarter. That will kind of settle out as we move through the back half of the year, still end slightly positive for the year, just not quite as positive as what we had in the first quarter.

    然後從生產力的角度來看,我們走上了正軌,這抵消了我們所看到的成本通脹。隨著供應鏈——更廣泛的供應鏈開始穩定下來,我們確實看到第一季度的加急運費大幅下降。所以我們有點擁有我們真正在所有汽缸上燃燒的所有因素,這導致了巨大的利潤增長。當我們考慮到今年餘下的時間時,總的來說,我們仍然對我們提供的指南感到非常滿意。一些積極的因素,例如混合,在第一季度非常積極。隨著我們進入今年下半年,這種情況將會有所解決,今年仍然略有積極,只是不如我們在第一季度那樣積極。

  • The same thing I'd say for pricing. So pricing in Q1, the biggest -- will be the biggest impact and then we start to lap the model year '22 pricing in Q3, Q4. So again, pricing is still positive for the year, but the impact of that kind of will lessen as we go throughout. The negative -- probably the single biggest negative besides cost inflation in the front half of the year is going to be foreign exchange. That starts to become more neutralized as we move through the back end of the year. So some puts and takes. But if you think about the overall margin guide, I'd say it's weighted to the front half with a little bit of margin growth in the back half, but it will definitely be front half bulleted.

    對於定價,我會說同樣的話。因此,第一季度的定價,最大的 - 將是最大的影響,然後我們開始在第三季度,第四季度對模型年 '22 定價。因此,今年的定價仍然是積極的,但隨著我們的進行,這種影響將會減弱。負面因素——可能是今年上半年除了成本通脹之外最大的單一負面因素將是外匯。隨著我們進入年底,這種情況開始變得更加中和。所以一些投入和投入。但如果你考慮整體利潤率指南,我會說它在前半部分加權,後半部分有一點利潤率增長,但它肯定會在前半部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • You have a follow-up question from James Hardiman with Citigroup.

    你有來自花旗集團的 James Hardiman 的後續問題。

  • James Lloyd Hardiman - Director

    James Lloyd Hardiman - Director

  • So 2 follow-ups for me. On HDFS, that 3.2%, obviously, you're saying you think that's going to come down over the next 2 quarters. What does that number need to look like for the year to be consistent with how you've ultimately guided HDFS. I guess, most notably that 5.1% provision rate seems to be the big sort of driver there. And then on the retail side, I think you've made some comments that launch timing may have negatively impacted retail. And so maybe there's -- even though wholesale was essentially the same and maybe a little bit more inventory build. Some of that retail benefit won't be until the second quarter. I'm hoping you can sort of tease that out as I think about how you framed retail, right, some timing and then there's some consumer mindset stuff. Obviously, the latter is pretty difficult to handicap, but maybe the timing piece is maybe a little bit easier to quantify.

    所以我有 2 個跟進。在 HDFS 上,那 3.2%,顯然,你是說你認為這將在接下來的兩個季度內下降。這一年的數字需要是什麼樣子才能與您最終指導 HDFS 的方式保持一致。我想,最值得注意的是,5.1% 的撥備率似乎是那裡的主要驅動力。然後在零售方面,我認為你已經發表了一些評論,即發佈時間可能會對零售產生負面影響。所以也許有——儘管批發基本上是一樣的,而且可能有更多的庫存。其中一些零售收益要到第二季度才會出現。我希望你能在我考慮你如何構建零售時梳理一下,對,一些時間,然後是一些消費者心態的東西。顯然,後者很難讓分,但也許計時片更容易量化。

  • Gina Goetter - CFO

    Gina Goetter - CFO

  • Sure, James. I'll take that first part of the question, and then I'll turn it over to Edel. But for HDFS, so we started at 3.2%, I would -- without giving you a precise number, what I'd say is embedded in our guidance is, call it, a mid-2s loss rate for the year. So that's what we feel that we can absorb that within the guidance levels that we've given.

    當然,詹姆斯。我將回答問題的第一部分,然後將其交給 Edel。但是對於 HDFS,所以我們從 3.2% 開始,我會 - 沒有給你一個準確的數字,我想說的是我們的指導中嵌入的是,稱之為今年的 2s 中期損失率。所以這就是我們認為我們可以在我們給出的指導水平內吸收它。

  • Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

    Edel O’Sullivan - Chief Commercial Officer

  • On the retail question, so I wouldn't say that we have necessarily shipped significantly ahead in wholesale versus what we expect in retail. I think we certainly have a healthier inventory position as we have discussed as we go into this riding season. The point specifically on anniversary models, the CVOs and even some of our new models is contrary to previous years, so we would have had potentially all of that inventory in the dealership to start the riding season. We are deliberately shipping that throughout the year. So you will actually see both the wholesale and the retail as we go through Q2 and Q3 for anniversary models, for some of our new models as well as certainly for the CVOs, which will come in the back half of the year. So just the overall cadence of how the product is working its way and rippling its way out through the network is very different than what we would have seen historically.

    關於零售問題,所以我不會說我們在批發方面的發貨量一定比我們在零售方面的預期要快得多。正如我們在進入這個騎行季節時所討論的那樣,我認為我們肯定擁有更健康的庫存狀況。特別是關於週年紀念車型、CVO 甚至我們的一些新車型的觀點與往年相反,因此我們可能會在經銷商處擁有所有這些庫存來開始騎行季節。我們故意全年發貨。因此,當我們經歷第二季度和第三季度的周年紀念車型、我們的一些新車型以及 CVO 時,你實際上會看到批發和零售,這些車型將在今年下半年推出。因此,產品如何運作以及如何通過網絡傳播出去的整體節奏與我們過去看到的非常不同。

  • And then I did want to just reiterate the point around the sportster that Jochen made earlier. This is a product that we are sunsetting. We are still, obviously, there are retail, but these are significantly lower as that product [sunsets] and there is an expectation that our RevMax platform over time as it evolves, will become sort of we'll grow to match some of that volume. But that dynamic certainly was a component of Q1 as well, and it will evolve over the rest of the year. So I would say it's less about us prepositioning the wholesale versus the retail, and overall, the cadence just looks very differently than we would have done it historically.

    然後我確實想重申一下 Jochen 之前針對這位運動員提出的觀點。這是我們正在淘汰的產品。顯然,我們仍然有零售,但隨著該產品 [sunsets] 的減少,我們預計我們的 RevMax 平台隨著時間的推移會隨著時間的推移而發展,我們將增長到與部分銷量相匹配.但這種動態肯定也是第一季度的一個組成部分,並將在今年餘下的時間裡發生變化。所以我想說,這與我們預先定位批發與零售無關,總的來說,節奏看起來與我們過去所做的非常不同。

  • James Lloyd Hardiman - Director

    James Lloyd Hardiman - Director

  • That's really good color. And Gina, good luck at your next stop.

    這顏色真好吉娜,祝你下一站好運。

  • Gina Goetter - CFO

    Gina Goetter - CFO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back over to Jochen Zeitz for some closing remarks.

    目前沒有其他問題。我現在想把它轉回給 Jochen Zeitz 做一些結束語。

  • Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

    Jochen Zeitz - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us today. As Robbie alluded to, Gina will be leaving us at the end of this month, and this is her last quarterly call. I'd really like to take the opportunity and thank her very much for her service to the company since she started in 2020. Wish her the very best in her new role, and she will certainly be missed. Thank you all again for joining us, and have a great day.

    好吧,謝謝大家今天加入我們。正如羅比提到的那樣,吉娜將在本月底離開我們,這是她最後一次季度電話會議。我真的很想藉此機會非常感謝她自 2020 年上任以來為公司所做的服務。祝愿她在新職位上一切順利,我們一定會想念她。再次感謝大家加入我們,祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。