Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Harley-Davidson 2023 Second Quarter Investor and Analyst Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Shawn Collins. Thank you. Please go ahead.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加哈雷戴維森 2023 年第二季度投資者和分析師電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給肖恩·柯林斯。謝謝。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning. This is Shawn Collins, the Director of Investor Relations at Harley-Davidson. You can access the slides supporting today's call on the Internet at the Harley Davidson Investor Relations website.

謝謝。早上好。我是肖恩·柯林斯 (Shawn Collins)，哈雷戴維森投資者關係總監。您可以在哈雷戴維森投資者關係網站上訪問支持今天電話會議的幻燈片。

As you might expect, our comments will include forward-looking statements that are subject to business risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted in our latest filings with the SEC.

正如您所料，我們的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能會受到商業風險的影響，可能導致實際結果產生重大差異。這些風險包括我們在向 SEC 提交的最新文件中指出的事項等。

With that, joining me this morning for the first part of the call are Harley Davidson Chief Executive Officer, Jochen Zeitz. Also, Chief Financial Officer, Jonathan Root; and LiveWire CEO, Karim Donnez. In addition, for the Q&A portion of today's call, Harley-Davidson Chief Commercial Officer Edel O'Sullivan will be joining us as she usually does. With that, let me turn it over to our CEO, Jochen Zeitz. Jochen?

今天早上與我一起參加電話會議第一部分的是哈雷戴維森首席執行官 Jochen Zeitz。此外，首席財務官喬納森·魯特（Jonathan Root）；以及 LiveWire 首席執行官 Karim Donnez。此外，哈雷戴維森首席商務官埃德爾·奧沙利文（Edel O'Sullivan）將像往常一樣參加今天電話會議的問答部分。接下來，讓我將其交給我們的首席執行官 Jochen Zeitz。約亨？

Thank you, Shawn. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Our Q2 results showed progress on the delivery of our Hardwire strategy despite a difficult macro environment and the unexpected production suspension impacting the business. Revenues were down 2% in the second quarter, driven by a revenue decline of 4% at HDMC, which was partially offset by revenue growth of 19% at HDFS. Despite the challenges, we saw global new motorcycle retail growth of 3%, with North America up 1% versus the prior year and solid international growth, especially in APAC, where we delivered a 24% increase in retail sales versus prior year.

謝謝你，肖恩。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。儘管宏觀環境困難且意外的生產暫停影響了業務，但我們第二季度的業績顯示我們的硬線戰略的實施取得了進展。第二季度收入下降 2%，原因是 HDMC 收入下降 4%，但 HDFS 收入增長 19% 部分抵消了這一下降。儘管面臨挑戰，我們仍看到全球新摩托車零售額增長了 3%，其中北美地區比上年增長了 1%，國際增長穩健，尤其是在亞太地區，我們的零售額比上年增長了 24%。

Before we turn to our delivery against our Hardwire pillars, there are 3 points I'd like to make about our performance for the quarter. Firstly, we remain focused on growing our most profitable categories versus just growing total units. In addition to the impact of the unplanned production suspension, Q2 total units have been impacted by portfolio choices in line with our strategy, including the shift of our second CVO launch to later in the year and most notably with the sunset of the Sportster in North America. While we intend to continue to participate in the small cruiser segment, leveraging both used and our RevMAX platform, our priority is to grow profitably in our leading segments. And while we expect RevMAX to grow over time as customers become familiar with the new engine, we will continue to make choices consistent with our strategy, namely, defending profit over retail units.

在我們轉向 Hardwire 支柱的交付之前，我想就我們本季度的表現提出 3 點。首先，我們仍然專注於發展最賺錢的類別，而不是僅僅增加總銷量。除了計劃外生產暫停的影響外，第二季度的總銷量還受到符合我們戰略的投資組合選擇的影響，包括將我們的第二次 CVO 發佈時間推遲到今年晚些時候，尤其是隨著 Sportster 在北方的落幕美國。雖然我們打算繼續參與小型巡洋艦領域，利用二手平台和我們的 RevMAX 平台，但我們的首要任務是在我們的領先領域實現盈利增長。雖然我們預計 RevMAX 隨著客戶對新發動機的熟悉而不斷增長，但我們將繼續做出符合我們戰略的選擇，即捍衛零售單位的利潤。

Secondly, across our main geographies, we've seen clear impacts on customer demand and affordability, with rising interest rates giving push to high-credit customers, in addition to higher monthly payment challenges across the board. We've also seen the impact of inflation on discretionary purchases. We continue to work through all the challenges with a diligent focus on our most profitable categories and prudent investments in demand generation.

其次，在我們的主要地區，我們看到了對客戶需求和承受能力的明顯影響，利率上升推動了高信用客戶的發展，此外每月還款面臨全面挑戰。我們還看到了通貨膨脹對可自由支配購買的影響。我們繼續努力應對所有挑戰，專注於我們最有利可圖的類別，並在需求產生方面進行審慎投資。

On this note, we're investing in supporting a message of affordability, but protecting profitability by focusing on our core categories. We continue to work with our dealers to design programs that drive traffic and help our more slowing customers with trade-ins and rates.

在這一點上，我們正​​在投資支持可負擔性的信息，但通過專注於我們的核心類別來保護盈利能力。我們繼續與經銷商合作，設計可增加流量的計劃，並通過以舊換新和費率幫助速度較慢的客戶。

Third, we remain committed to desirability as we manage the dynamics of the year. We continue to monitor inventory levels in the channel, as well as MSRP price realization, while managing production and inventory mix to protect the long-term health of the business. Undoubtedly, the production suspension late in the quarter created some unexpected challenges to that balance. An uneven production ramp-up based on parts availability and the high popularity of some models has led to uneven mix in the channel and units that are delayed versus our original estimates. However, we plan to work to correct the situation in the second half of the year. Our focus on desirability, managing mix and prioritizing profitable growth of our overall unit growth has driven an improvement in our HDMC gross margin to 34.8% this quarter.

第三，在管理今年的動態時，我們仍然致力於滿足人們的需求。我們繼續監控渠道的庫存水平以及建議零售價的實現情況，同時管理生產和庫存組合，以保護業務的長期健康發展。毫無疑問，本季度末的生產暫停對這種平衡造成了一些意想不到的挑戰。基於零件可用性和某些型號的高受歡迎程度的不均勻生產增加導致渠道和單位的混合不均勻，與我們最初的估計相比有所延遲。不過，我們計劃在下半年努力糾正這種情況。我們對需求的關注、管理組合以及優先考慮整體單位增長的盈利增長，推動本季度 HDMC 毛利率提高至 34.8%。

Now, I'll highlight select pillars of the Hardwire, starting with pillar 1, profit focus. Our performance in the first half of the year continues to be aligned to our Hardwire strategic pillar, profit focus, with strong mix and growth in our most profitable categories, with Touring and Trike up 10%; and Cruiser up almost 22%, with these categories now representing 85% of the total volume versus 76% in the first half of 2022.

現在，我將重點介紹硬線的選定支柱，從支柱 1（利潤焦點）開始。我們上半年的業績繼續與我們的 Hardwire 戰略支柱、利潤重點保持一致，在我們最盈利的類別中實現了強勁的組合和增長，其中旅行車和三輪車增長了 10%； Cruiser 增長了近 22%，這些類別目前佔總銷量的 85%，而 2022 年上半年為 76%。

Building on our commitment to strengthen and grow our leadership in our stronghold motorcycle segments, namely Touring, Large Cruiser and Trike, in April, we introduced the new CVO motorcycles, the CVO Street Glide and CVO Road Glide, with the motorcycles formally launching in June and first test rides being conducted as planned during our 120th homecoming anniversary in Milwaukee.

基於我們致力於加強和發展我們在旅行車、大型巡洋艦和三輪車等據點摩托車領域的領導地位的承諾，我們於 4 月份推出了新型 CVO 摩托車：CVO Street Glide 和 CVO Road Glide，這些摩托車於 6 月正式推出首次試乘活動正按計劃在我們返校 120 週年紀念日期間在密爾沃基進行。

By rethinking these 2 models from the ground up, we've advanced every aspect of the Grand American Touring motorcycling experience. These models set a new standard for Harley-Davidson performance, technology and style, accelerating the evolution of the world's most desirable motorcycle brand. The global launch was met with a strong response from our customers, with over 40% of the volume already pre-booked before the motorcycles arrived in U.S. dealerships.

通過從頭開始重新思考這兩款車型，我們改進了 Grand American Touring 摩托車體驗的各個方面。這些車型為哈雷戴維森的性能、技術和風格樹立了新標準，加速了世界上最受歡迎的摩托車品牌的發展。此次全球發布得到了客戶的強烈反響，在摩托車抵達美國經銷商之前，超過 40% 的銷量已被預訂。

Also aligned to profit focus, building on our commitment to introduce a series of motorcycles that align with our strategy to increase desirability and to drive the legacy of Harley-Davidson, in May, we introduced the latest from our Enthusiast and Icons collections. The '23 addition to the Enthusiast collection was the Fast Johnnie, a celebration of muscle car culture and its racing heritage, featuring factory-direct custom paint and graphic treatments across the 3 Harley-Davidson models: the Low Rider ST, the Street Glide ST and the Road Glide ST. For the third installment of the Icons motorcycle collection program, we launched the Electra Glide Highway King, inspired by the 1968 FLH Electra Glide model. We've seen a strong customer reception to both collections, with most selling out ahead of delivery.

同樣為了以利潤為中心，基於我們致力於推出一系列摩托車的承諾，這些摩托車符合我們提高吸引力和推動哈雷戴維森傳統的戰略，5 月份，我們推出了 Enthusiast 和 Icons 系列中的最新產品。 23 年 Enthusiast 系列新增的車型是 Fast Johnnie，它是對肌肉車文化及其賽車傳統的慶祝，其 3 款哈雷戴維森車型均採用工廠直接定制的噴漆和圖形處理：Low Rider ST、Street Glide ST和 Road Glide ST。在 Icons 摩托車系列計劃的第三部分中，我們推出了 Electra Glide Highway King，其靈感源自 1968 年 FLH Electra Glide 車型。我們看到這兩個系列都受到了強烈的客戶歡迎，大多數在交貨前就銷售一空。

Pillar 2, selective expansion. The company continues to selectively focus on opportunities in segments that we believe have a path to in-market success and profitability, capitalizing on our brand strength, product capabilities and selectively complemented with partnerships. Building on the launch of the HD X350 and 500 in APAC early in the year, in July, we successfully launched the X440 in India. The launch marked the start of a new chapter in India for Harley-Davidson and the first product as part of our partnership with Hero MotoCorp, which began in 2020. We've been extremely pleased with the reception that the X440 has received since launch, with preorders exceeding initial expectations from launch.

支柱2，選擇性擴張。該公司繼續有選擇地關注我們認為能夠在市場上取得成功和盈利的細分市場的機會，利用我們的品牌實力、產品能力並有選擇地與合作夥伴進行補充。繼年初在亞太地區推出 HD X350 和 500 的基礎上，我們於 7 月在印度成功推出了 X440。此次發布標誌著哈雷戴維森在印度翻開了新篇章，也是我們與 Hero MotoCorp 於 2020 年開始合作的第一款產品。我們對 X440 自推出以來所受到的歡迎感到非常滿意。預訂量超出了發佈時的最初預期。

Pillar 5, customer experience. The Hardwire puts customers at the forefront of Harley-Davidson's products, experiences and investments and defines customers as people who may dream of motorcycling or just learning to ride, all the way to riders who are deeply passionate about and invested in the Harley-Davidson lifestyle. With that in mind, following our successful introduction of our pre-owned marketplace in '21, we've now expanded with new capabilities to search and configure new motorcycles online.

支柱 5，客戶體驗。 The Hardwire 將客戶置於哈雷戴維森產品、體驗和投資的最前沿，並將客戶定義為那些可能夢想騎摩托車或剛剛學習騎車的人，一直到對哈雷戴維森生活方式充滿熱情和投資的騎手。考慮到這一點，繼我們在 21 年成功推出二手車市場之後，我們現在已經擴展了在線搜索和配置新摩托車的新功能。

Additionally, we introduced H-D Membership in June, a new industry-leading community platform and membership program designed to enable all motorcycle riders, motor culture and Harley-Davidson fans to connect, engage and ride with one another while enjoying personalized benefits, rewards and experiences. First level, Harley-Davidson Membership is free to join, offering multiple ways for members to tailor their experiences, engage with the Harley-Davidson community and earn rewards. Members who look to further enhance their experience and benefit package may elect to add the Access Pass for riders and nonriders, with exclusive access to key brand events and content as well as benefits such as enhanced rewards and partner benefits.

此外，我們於 6 月推出了 H-D Membership，這是一個行業領先的新社區平台和會員計劃，旨在讓所有摩托車騎手、汽車文化和哈雷戴維森粉絲能夠相互聯繫、互動和騎行，同時享受個性化的福利、獎勵和體驗。第一級，哈雷戴維森會員資格可免費加入，為會員提供多種方式來定制他們的體驗、參與哈雷戴維森社區並獲得獎勵。希望進一步增強體驗和福利套餐的會員可以選擇為騎手和非騎手添加訪問通行證，獲得主要品牌活動和內容的獨家訪問權限以及增強獎勵和合作夥伴福利等福利。

Another option for riders of any motorcycle is the Rider Pass, which includes tools, content and benefits such as roadside assistance, motorcycle service benefits and partner benefits to enhance the riding experience. And lastly, our Harley Owners Group received several key enhanced program benefits. Since launch, over 125,000 Harley-Davidson Membership profiles have been created, with majority being new members not previously Harley Owners Group-affiliated. We've also increased our HOG renewal rates since the launch of H-D Membership. We're excited for what this capability would bring in terms of building and activating ridership.

任何摩托車騎手的另一個選擇是騎手通行證，其中包括工具、內容和福利，例如路邊援助、摩托車服務福利和合作夥伴福利，以增強騎行體驗。最後，我們的哈雷車主團體獲得了幾項重要的增強計劃福利。自推出以來，已創建了超過 125,000 個哈雷戴維森會員資料，其中大多數是以前不屬於哈雷車主集團的新會員。自推出 H-D 會員資格以來，我們還提高了 HOG 續訂率。我們對這一功能在建立和激活客流量方面所帶來的影響感到興奮。

In '22, we announced the launch of our Project Fuel program, an initiative to redefine the Harley-Davidson customer experience, leading with footprint transformation to provide a much-needed redesign of our dealerships. In Q2, we launched our first updated dealership in North America as part of the program designed to transform the in-person customer experience in addition to providing enhanced omnichannel purchase capability for new bikes and parts and accessories. In the coming quarters, we will start a steady cadence of updated dealerships coming online with the expectation that the full network domestically and internationally will be updated over the 10-year cycle.

22 年，我們宣布啟動 Project Fuel 計劃，該計劃旨在重新定義哈雷戴維森客戶體驗，以足跡轉型為主導，為我們的經銷店提供急需的重新設計。在第二季度，我們在北美推出了第一家更新的經銷店，作為該計劃的一部分，該計劃旨在改變面對面的客戶體驗，並為新自行車和零部件提供增強的全渠道購買能力。在接下來的幾個季度中，我們將開始穩定更新經銷商網絡，預計國內和國際的完整網絡將在 10 年周期內更新。

Before I hand it over to Karim, our new LiveWire CEO, I wanted to share my conviction in our strategy. As we evaluate the first half of the year, it's clear that despite the challenging macroeconomic environment for the business and our customers, we're making progress in our core Hardwire objectives. We're proud of several standout launches this year, including our Road Glide 3, Breakout, anniversary models, but most significantly, our transformational CVOs, delivering on our Hardwire promise of innovation as part of our focus on core categories.

在將其交給 LiveWire 新任首席執行官 Karim 之前，我想分享一下我對我們戰略的信念。當我們評估今年上半年時，很明顯，儘管企業和客戶的宏觀經濟環境充滿挑戰，但我們在核心硬線目標方面正在取得進展。我們為今年推出的幾款出色產品感到自豪，包括 Road Glide 3、Breakout、週年紀念型號，但最重要的是我們的變革性 CVO，它們兌現了我們的 Hardwire 創新承諾，作為我們專注於核心類別的一部分。

We're also proud of the ongoing success of our Large Cruiser category, with 1 specific example being the Low Rider ST, which is resonating with younger riders, showing a new path forward in the categories we proudly lead. Hero MotoCorp and QJ are solid examples of innovative participation models in geographies that matter as part of our selective expansion strategy.

我們還為大型巡洋艦類別的持續成功感到自豪，其中一個具體例子是 Low Rider ST，它引起了年輕騎手的共鳴，在我們引以為傲的領先類別中展示了一條新的前進道路。 Hero MotoCorp 和 QJ 是創新參與模式的典範，這些模式是我們選擇性擴張戰略的一部分。

Overall, we have been pleased by the reception, with orders exceeding expectations from launch. Importantly, these partnerships not only increase ridership, but bring new riders directly to the Harley-Davidson brand. In the first half, both Parts & Accessories and Apparel & Licensing together continue to grow as complementary offerings to our motorcycle product, underscoring our growth beyond bike focus.

總體而言，我們對反響感到滿意，訂單超出了發布後的預期。重要的是，這些合作夥伴關係不僅增加了乘客量，還為哈雷戴維森品牌帶來了直接的新乘客。上半年，零件和配件以及服裝和授權作為我們摩托車產品的補充產品一起繼續增長，突顯了我們在自行車業務之外的增長。

With our dedication to optimizing the customer experience, in addition to our Fuel program, we are transforming our omnichannel capabilities and the pre- and post-purchase journey. We continue to invest in improving our allocation and distribution model, which will improve our efficiency in the future.

我們致力於優化客戶體驗，除了 Fuel 計劃之外，我們還在轉變我們的全渠道能力以及購買前和購買後的旅程。我們繼續投資改進我們的分配和分配模式，這將提高我們未來的效率。

The Hardwire is underpinned by our key strategic principles of profitability and desirability. '23 is a year where we continue to demonstrate our commitment to both by driving the most profitable segments of the market where we command share and by prioritizing the long-term health of the business. These principles remain the foundation to what we intend to deliver with the remainder of Hardwire. We will continue to adjust according to the macroeconomic realities that we expect to play out through the change in the business environment. However, we remain committed to our 6-pillar Hardwire strategy.

Hardwire 以我們的盈利能力和需求性關鍵戰略原則為基礎。 23 年來，我們繼續踐行我們的承諾，推動我們佔據份額的市場中最有利可圖的細分市場，並優先考慮業務的長期健康發展。這些原則仍然是我們打算通過 Hardwire 的其餘部分實現的目標的基礎。我們將根據預期通過營商環境變化而顯現的宏觀經濟現實繼續進行調整。然而，我們仍然致力於我們的六支柱硬線戰略。

Thank you. And with that, I'll hand it over to Karim to talk LiveWire.

謝謝。接下來，我會將其交給 Karim 來討論 LiveWire。

Thank you, Jochen. Good morning, everyone. I'm happy to be with you to talk about LiveWire. Thanks to the investments already made and the continued support from our shareholders, I believe LiveWire is poised to have a massive impact into the electrification of the industry. As we report on the second quarter of 2023, LiveWire is moving the S2 Del Mar into production and launching the brand in Europe. The Del Mar is the first bike on the S2 platform, with the core EV systems and software developed from the ground up by the LiveWire engineering team.

謝謝你，喬亨。大家，早安。我很高興與您一起談論 LiveWire。由於已經進行的投資和股東的持續支持，我相信 LiveWire 將為行業電氣化帶來巨大影響。正如我們在 2023 年第二季度報導的那樣，LiveWire 正在將 S2 Del Mar 投入生產，並在歐洲推出該品牌。 Del Mar 是 S2 平台上的第一輛自行車，其核心 EV 系統和軟件由 LiveWire 工程團隊從頭開始開發。

We're seen strong customer interest in the new design and the advanced technology offered by the bike that we've been working on for the past 5 years. The price point of just above $15,000 makes the LiveWire brand more accessible to a broader segment of riders. We believe anticipation for the Del Mar contributed to lower year-on-year volumes of LiveWire ONE as riders waited to learn more about our latest entry.

我們發現客戶對我們過去 5 年一直致力於開發的自行車的新設計和先進技術表現出了濃厚的興趣。略高於 15,000 美元的價格使 LiveWire 品牌更容易被更廣泛的騎手群體所接受。我們認為，對 Del Mar 的期待導致了 LiveWire ONE 銷量同比下降，因為騎手們等待了解有關我們最新產品的更多信息。

We're happy to report that we've been building powertrains in Wisconsin over the past few weeks, and the first bikes have been assembled on [line 3] in North Pennsylvania just this week. We look forward to ramping up production throughout August and getting early customers on the road.

我們很高興地報告，過去幾週我們一直在威斯康星州建造動力總成，第一批自行車已於本週在賓夕法尼亞州北部的 [3 號線] 組裝完畢。我們期待在整個八月提高產量並吸引早期客戶上路。

Over the next 2 years, we expect the S2 platform to expand, continuing to build on our momentum. With LiveWire ONE now available in Europe, Del Mar will soon follow. Our retail partners are up and running in our 4 priority countries following the launch of the brand in the second quarter, with successful events in Paris, Berlin, London and Amsterdam. We look forward to the region becoming a critical piece of the LiveWire growth story.

在接下來的兩年裡，我們預計 S2 平台將得到擴展，繼續鞏固我們的發展勢頭。隨著 LiveWire ONE 現已在歐洲上市，Del Mar 也將很快跟進。自第二季度推出該品牌以來，我們的零售合作夥伴已在 4 個優先國家/地區啟動並運營，並在巴黎、柏林、倫敦和阿姆斯特丹舉辦了成功的活動。我們期待該地區成為 LiveWire 增長故事的關鍵部分。

Our investment and associated expenses were in line with our plan for the quarter. We believe the business is currently well financed for the next stages of our development, with $216 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter and the option to access $200 million under a nonbinding term sheet with Harley-Davidson. And now, I'll hand it over to Jonathan.

我們的投資和相關費用符合我們本季度的計劃。我們相信，該業務目前為下一階段的發展提供了充足的資金，到本季度末擁有 2.16 億美元的現金和現金等價物，並且可以根據與哈雷戴維森的非約束性條款清單獲得 2 億美元的選擇權。現在，我將把它交給喬納森。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. The second quarter of 2023 is the third quarter under our new reporting structure with the 3 business segments of HDMC, HDFS and LiveWire. In Q2, we experienced the impact of an unplanned production suspension at our U.S. manufacturing operations, where global wholesale shipments decreased by 10% year-over-year. Yet global pricing was able to partially offset unit declines, allowing us to turn in a strong margin performance as unit mix and productivity are key areas of focus. In addition, we continue to invest into building core competencies in our Hardwire pillars.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。 2023 年第二季度是我們新報告結構下的第三季度，包括 HDMC、HDFS 和 LiveWire 3 個業務部門。第二季度，我們的美國製造業務受到意外停產的影響，全球批發出貨量同比下降 10%。然而，全球定價能夠部分抵消單位數量的下降，使我們能夠實現強勁的利潤率表現，因為單位組合和生產力是關鍵的關注領域。此外，我們繼續投資建設硬線支柱的核心能力。

Turning to our financial results in the second quarter. Total consolidated HDI revenue of $1.4 billion was down 2% compared to last year. The components of this were, at HDMC, revenue declined by 4%. At Harley-Davidson Financial Services, revenue grew by 19%. And at LiveWire, revenue declined by 44%. Total consolidated HDI operating income was $221 million, which was $56 million lower than the prior year. The components of this were, at HDMC, operating income of $194 million was 8% lower than the prior year. At Harley-Davidson Financial Services, operating income of $59 million declined by 31% on a year-over-year basis. And at LiveWire, an operating loss of $32 million was in line with our expectations. Second quarter earnings per share of $1.22 compares to $1.46 last year as a result of the factors noted above.

轉向我們第二季度的財務業績。 HDI 綜合總收入為 14 億美元，比去年下降 2%。其中 HDMC 的收入下降了 4%。 Harley-Davidson Financial Services 的收入增長了 19%。 LiveWire 的收入下降了 44%。綜合 HDI 營業收入總額為 2.21 億美元，比上年減少 5,600 萬美元。其中 HDMC 的營業收入為 1.94 億美元，比上年下降 8%。哈雷戴維森金融服務公司的營業收入為 5900 萬美元，同比下降 31%。 LiveWire 的運營虧損為 3200 萬美元，符合我們的預期。由於上述因素，第二季度每股收益為 1.22 美元，而去年為 1.46 美元。

As we flip the page to first half results, total consolidated HDI revenue of $3.2 billion was up 9% compared to last year. The components of this were, at HDMC, revenue increased by 8%. At Harley-Davidson Financial Services, revenue grew by 17%. And at LiveWire, revenue declined by 35%. Total consolidated HDI operating income was $591 million, which was $24 million higher than the prior year. The components of this were, at HDMC, operating income of $530 million was 23% higher than prior year, reflecting a strong operating margin of 19.2% in the first half of the year. At Harley-Davidson Financial Services, operating income of $117 million declined by 32% in the first half of the year. And at LiveWire, an operating loss of $57 million was in line with our expectations.

當我們翻到上半年業績時，HDI 綜合總收入為 32 億美元，比去年增長 9%。其中 HDMC 的收入增長了 8%。 Harley-Davidson Financial Services 的收入增長了 17%。 LiveWire 的收入下降了 35%。 HDI 綜合營業收入總額為 5.91 億美元，比上年增加 2400 萬美元。其中 HDMC 的營業收入為 5.3 億美元，比去年同期增長 23%，反映了今年上半年 19.2% 的強勁營業利潤率。哈雷戴維森金融服務公司上半年營業收入為 1.17 億美元，下降了 32%。 LiveWire 的運營虧損為 5700 萬美元，符合我們的預期。

Year-to-date earnings per share of $3.27 compares to $2.91 last year, or up 12% versus the first half of 2022 as a result of the factors noted above, as well as consistent share buybacks throughout the first half of 2023.

由於上述因素以及 2023 年上半年持續的股票回購，年初至今的每股收益為 3.27 美元，而去年為 2.91 美元，比 2022 年上半年增長了 12%。

As Jochen mentioned earlier, global retail sales of new motorcycles were up 3% versus the prior year. In North America, Q2 retail sales grew by 1%, driven by strength in core categories, such as Touring and Cruiser motorcycles, which were up 7% in Q2. This was offset by declines in the sport motorcycle category following the discontinuation of our legacy Sportster models at the end of 2022, resulting in less units in the market than the year before.

正如 Jochen 之前提到的，全球新摩托車零售額比上年增長了 3%。在北美，第二季度零售額增長了 1%，這得益於旅行摩托車和巡洋艦摩托車等核心類別的強勁增長，第二季度零售額增長了 7%。這被我們的舊款 Sportster 車型於 2022 年底停產後運動摩托車類別的下滑所抵消，導致市場上的銷量比上年減少。

In Asia Pacific, Q2 retail sales grew by 24% as we continued to experience strong demand across a variety of markets. In EMEA, Q2 retail sales declined by 6%, driven by the planned unit mix shift towards profitable core product segments. Core categories were up 7% in the EMEA region in Q2 and overall profitability continued to improve. In Latin America, Q2 retail sales grew by 4%, driven by growth in Brazil that was partially offset by weakness in Mexico.

在亞太地區，由於各個市場的需求持續強勁，第二季度零售額增長了 24%。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，由於計劃的單位組合轉向盈利的核心產品領域，第二季度零售額下降了 6%。第二季度 EMEA 地區核心品類增長 7%，整體盈利能力持續改善。在拉丁美洲，第二季度零售額增長了 4%，主要受到巴西增長的推動，但墨西哥的疲軟部分抵消了這一增長。

Higher production in the second half of 2022 and in the first half of 2023 has allowed us to improve product availability at our dealer network over the last 12 months. On a year-over-year basis, average inventory in Q2 was up by more than 90% to healthier levels compared to the exceptionally tight level of 2022. Dealer inventory continues to be materially down versus 2019.

2022 年下半年和 2023 年上半年產量的增加使我們能夠在過去 12 個月內提高經銷商網絡的產品可用性。與 2022 年異常緊張的水平相比，第二季度的平均庫存同比增長了 90% 以上，達到了更健康的水平。與 2019 年相比，經銷商庫存繼續大幅下降。

From a retail pricing standpoint, U.S. new motorcycle transaction prices finished within our desirability threshold of plus or minus 2 percentage points of MSRP. At the HDMC segment, revenue declined by 4%, primarily due to the production suspension at our U.S. manufacturing operations that occurred primarily in Q2.

從零售定價的角度來看，美國新摩托車交易價格在建議零售價正負 2 個百分點的範圍內完成。 HDMC 部門的收入下降了 4%，主要是由於我們的美國製造業務主要發生在第二季度的停產。

Looking at the HDMC revenue bridge and focusing on the key drivers for the quarter, 10 points of decline came from decreased volume at HDMC. This was driven by the 10% decrease in wholesale motorcycle unit shipments mentioned previously. Four points of growth came from pricing through both global MSRP increases and pricing across the Parts & Accessories and Apparel businesses. Mix contributed 2 points of growth as we continue to prioritize our most profitable models and markets. And finally, 1 point of negative impact came from foreign exchange.

從 HDMC 收入橋樑來看，重點關注本季度的主要驅動因素，下降 10 個百分點是由於 HDMC 銷量下降。這是由前面提到的批發摩托車單位出貨量下降 10% 推動的。四個增長點來自於全球建議零售價上漲以及零部件和服裝業務的定價。隨著我們繼續優先考慮最有利可圖的模式和市場，混合貢獻了 2 個增長點。最後，1分的負面影響來自外匯。

At HDMC, operating income of $194 million in Q2 was 8% lower than prior year, driven by lower wholesale shipments and higher operating expenses. As a reminder, our commentary is now based on the updated definition of HDMC, which excludes LiveWire.

HDMC 第二季度營業收入為 1.94 億美元，比去年同期下降 8%，原因是批發出貨量減少和營業費用增加。提醒一下，我們的評論現在基於 HDMC 的更新定義，其中不包括 LiveWire。

Let's look more closely at HDMC margins. HDMC gross margin in Q2 was 34.8%, which compares to 30.9% in the prior year. The improvement of 4 points or 400 basis points was driven by pricing, cost productivity and unit mix, more than offsetting the negative impacts from reduced volume and foreign exchange. We experienced more modest cost inflation, which was approximately 1% in Q2.

讓我們更仔細地看看 HDMC 利潤率。 HDMC 第二季度毛利率為 34.8%，而去年同期為 30.9%。 4 個基點或 400 個基點的改善是由定價、成本生產率和單位組合推動的，足以抵消銷量減少和外匯匯率下降的負面影響。我們經歷了較為溫和的成本通脹，第二季度約為 1%。

On a year-over-year basis, the deceleration continued to be largely driven by logistics, including lower expedited shipping expenses and ocean freight rates. Raw materials and metal markets have also continued to moderate. HDMC operating margin came in at 16.2% in Q2 from 16.8% in the prior year. The decrease was due to higher operating expense, including higher people costs and marketing spend as planned. For the first half of the year at HDMC, operating income of $530 million is a 23% increase compared to prior year. HDMC operating margin of 19.2% through the first half is 2.4 points higher than prior year. The increase is due to pricing, productivity and favorable mix more than offsetting FX and higher operating expenses.

與去年同期相比，減速主要是由物流推動的，包括加急運輸費用和海運費率的降低。原材料和金屬市場也繼續溫和。 HDMC 第二季度營業利潤率為 16.2%，而去年同期為 16.8%。減少的原因是運營費用增加，包括按計劃增加的人員成本和營銷支出。 HDMC 今年上半年的營業收入為 5.3 億美元，比去年同期增長 23%。 HDMC 上半年營業利潤率為 19.2%，比去年同期高 2.4 個百分點。這一增長歸因於定價、生產力和有利的組合，而不僅僅是抵消了外彙和更高的運營費用。

At Harley-Davidson Financial Services, revenue increased by 19%, driven by higher finance receivables, higher interest income and increased investment income. HDFS operating income in Q2 was $59 million, down 31% compared to last year. The Q2 decline was driven by higher borrowing costs as well as higher provision for credit losses due to an increase in credit reserves and realized credit losses.

在哈雷戴維森金融服務公司，由於財務應收賬款增加、利息收入增加和投資收入增加，收入增長了 19%。 HDFS第二季度營業收入為5900萬美元，比去年下降31%。第二季度的下降是由於借貸成本上升以及信貸準備金和已實現信貸損失增加導致的信貸損失撥備增加所致。

In Q2, HDFS' annualized retail credit loss ratio came in at 2.6%, which is down from 3.2% in Q1 of this year. During the quarter, losses followed the typical seasonality curve, with performance in line with expectations. These levels compare to an annualized loss of 1.9% in fiscal 2022. The increase in credit losses was driven by several factors relating to the current macroeconomic environment. In addition, the allowance for credit losses for the second quarter increased to 5.3%, up from 5.1% in Q1, which is the level it had been during fiscal 2022.

第二季度，HDFS 的年化零售信貸損失率為 2.6%，低於今年第一季度的 3.2%。本季度，虧損遵循典型的季節性曲線，業績符合預期。相比之下，2022 財年的年化損失為 1.9%。信貸損失的增加是由與當前宏觀經濟環境相關的多個因素推動的。此外，第二季度的信貸損失準備金從第一季度的 5.1% 增加至 5.3%，這是 2022 財年的水平。

Total retail loan originations in Q2 were down 14%, while commercial lending receivables were up 54% to $936 million behind stronger product availability compared to prior year. Total quarter-end net financing receivables, including both retail loans and commercial lending receivables, was $7.5 billion, which was up 6% versus prior year.

第二季度零售貸款發放總額下降 14%，而商業貸款應收賬款增長 54%，達到 9.36 億美元，原因是產品供應量較去年同期有所增強。季度末融資應收賬款淨額（包括零售貸款和商業貸款應收賬款）總額為 75 億美元，比去年同期增長 6%。

Total interest expense in Q2 was up $38 million or up 80% versus prior year. The increase was driven by a higher cost of funding, as lower interest rate debt matured and was replaced with current market-rate debt. During the first half of 2023, we raised approximately $2 billion in the capital markets. And at the end of Q2, cash and committed bank and conduit facilities resulted in an HDFS liquidity position of $2.4 billion. We believe this has put HDFS in a very strong position from both a funding and liquidity perspective.

第二季度總利息支出比去年增加 3800 萬美元，即增加 80%。這一增長是由於較低利率債務到期並被當前市場利率債務取代而導致融資成本上升。 2023 年上半年，我們在資本市場籌集了約 20 億美元。在第二季度末，現金以及承諾的銀行和管道設施使 HDFS 的流動性頭寸達到 24 億美元。我們相信，從資金和流動性的角度來看，這使得 HDFS 處於非常有利的地位。

For the LiveWire segment, second quarter revenue decreased from $13 million to $7 million due to lower unit sales of both electric motorcycles and the electric balance bikes. LiveWire operating loss of $32 million was, as Karim highlighted, in line with expectations and was driven by product development spending associated with the launch of the Del Mar electric motorcycle.

對於 LiveWire 部門，由於電動摩托車和電動平衡自行車的銷量下降，第二季度收入從 1300 萬美元下降至 700 萬美元。正如 Karim 強調的那樣，LiveWire 運營虧損 3200 萬美元符合預期，並且是由與 Del Mar 電動摩托車推出相關的產品開發支出推動的。

Wrapping up with Harley-Davidson, Inc financial results. In the first half of 2023, we delivered $411 million of operating cash flow, which was up from $244 million in the prior year. The increase in operating cash flow was due primarily to less new working capital needs in the first half of 2023 versus the first half of 2022. Total cash and cash equivalents ended at $1.5 billion, which was $672 million lower than at the end of Q2 prior year. This consolidated cash number includes $216 million from LiveWire.

哈雷戴維森公司財務業績總結。 2023 年上半年，我們實現了 4.11 億美元的運營現金流，高於上一年的 2.44 億美元。運營現金流的增加主要是由於 2023 年上半年新增營運資金需求較 2022 年上半年減少。現金和現金等價物總額最終為 15 億美元，比上一季度末減少 6.72 億美元年。這一綜合現金數字包括來自 LiveWire 的 2.16 億美元。

Additionally, during the first half of 2023, as part of our capital allocation strategy, we bought back 4.1 million shares of our stock at a value of $156 million.

此外，在 2023 年上半年，作為我們資本配置策略的一部分，我們回購了 410 萬股股票，價值 1.56 億美元。

As we look to the rest of 2023 based on our results to date and our business outlook, we are revising our HDMC guidance and the LiveWire segment unit sales guidance, while we are reaffirming our HDFS, LiveWire operating income and HDI CapEx guidance. At HDMC, we now expect HDMC revenue growth of flat to plus 3%. This revised forecast is in line with our overall strategy and addresses the impacts caused by the production suspension at our U.S. manufacturing operations. HDMC operating income margin of 13.9% to 14.3%. We continue to believe the anticipated positive impact from pricing and our cost productivity efforts within the supply chain will offset expected cost inflation and currency headwinds.

當我們根據迄今為止的業績和業務前景展望 2023 年剩餘時間時，我們正在修訂 HDMC 指導和 LiveWire 部門單位銷售指導，同時重申我們的 HDFS、LiveWire 營業收入和 HDI 資本支出指導。在 HDMC，我們現在預計 HDMC 收入增長將持平，增長 3%。這一修訂後的預測符合我們的整體戰略，並解決了我們美國製造業務停產造成的影響。 HDMC營業利潤率為13.9%至14.3%。我們仍然相信，定價和我們在供應鏈內的成本生產率努力所帶來的預期積極影響將抵消預期的成本通脹和貨幣不利因素。

At LiveWire, we now expect unit sales of 600 to 1,000. This reflects the updated Del Mar motorcycle go-to-market timing. At LiveWire, we continue to expect an operating loss range of $115 million to $125 million.

在 LiveWire，我們現在預計銷量為 600 至 1,000 台。這反映了更新後的 Del Mar 摩托車上市時間。在 LiveWire，我們仍然預計營業虧損在 1.15 億美元至 1.25 億美元之間。

As we look to the rest of 2023, we are reaffirming our full year guidance for HDFS and HDI CapEx guidance. At HDFS, we continue to expect HDFS operating income to decline by 20% to 25%. In Q2, we experienced lower realized credit losses than in Q1, as seasonality played out as we had expected. We continue to stay focused on several actions underway to effectively manage the business in today's credit environment, including increased investments behind collections and stronger repossession efforts. And we continue to build other revenue sources, including licensing revenue and insurance revenue, which was up more than 30% in the first half of 2023.

展望 2023 年剩餘時間，我們重申對 HDFS 和 HDI 資本支出的全年指導。對於 HDFS，我們繼續預計 HDFS 營業收入將下降 20% 至 25%。第二季度，我們的已實現信貸損失低於第一季度，因為季節性正如我們預期的那樣。我們繼續關注正在採取的多項行動，以在當今的信貸環境中有效管理業務，包括增加催收背後的投資和加強收回工作。我們繼續建立其他收入來源，包括許可收入和保險收入，2023 年上半年增長了 30% 以上。

And lastly, for total HDI, we continue to expect capital investments of $225 million to $250 million as we continue to invest behind product development and capability enhancements.

最後，對於總 HDI，隨著我們繼續投資於產品開發和能力增強，我們預計資本投資將達到 2.25 億至 2.5 億美元。

Through the first half of the year, we have seen cost inflation generally in line with our expectations and continue to expect in aggregate about 2 points of inflation for the full year 2023 compared to 4% in 2022. Labor and warehousing costs continue to be the primary drivers of inflation, with deflation and moderation expected within logistics, freight and raw materials.

今年上半年，我們看到成本通脹總體符合我們的預期，並繼續預計 2023 年全年通脹總計約為 2 個百分點，而 2022 年通脹率為 4%。勞動力和倉儲成本仍然是主要因素通貨膨脹的主要驅動因素，預計物流、貨運和原材料領域將出現通貨緊縮和放緩。

We now expect $100 million in cost productivity in 2023, taking into account the adjustments in volume and updated production environment. For HDFS, we expect the operating income declines to moderate in the second half of the year as we begin to lap the interest rate increases that took effect in 2022.

考慮到產量的調整和更新的生產環境，我們現在預計 2023 年的成本生產率將達到 1 億美元。對於 HDFS，我們預計隨著 2022 年加息的開始生效，下半年營業收入將放緩。

As we look at capital allocation for the remainder of 2023, our priorities remain to fund growth of the Hardwire initiatives, which includes the capital expenditures mentioned previously; paying dividends; and executing discretionary share repurchases.

當我們考慮 2023 年剩餘時間的資本分配時，我們的首要任務仍然是為 Hardwire 計劃的增長提供資金，其中包括前面提到的資本支出；支付股息；並執行酌情股份回購。

In summary, we are pleased with the resiliency of our financial results through the first half of the year, especially our margin performance, despite a complex retail environment. And with that, I'll turn it back to the operator to take your questions.

總而言之，儘管零售環境複雜，但我們對上半年財務業績的彈性感到滿意，尤其是我們的利潤率表現。然後，我會將其轉回接線員以回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Craig Kennison from Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Baird 的 Craig Kennison。

I imagine there will be plenty of focus on the U.S. market, but I'm curious about the strategy in India, where the demographic story looks much different. Can you frame the market size and opportunity and the economics of your licensing arrangement with Hero?

我想美國市場將會受到很多關注，但我對印度的戰略很好奇，那裡的人口情況看起來有很大不同。您能否描述一下您與 Hero 的許可安排的市場規模、機會以及經濟效益？

Yes, Craig, thank you. As you know, we exited India, which was a subsidiary, which was serviced also through a manufacturing facility that we had in India in 2020. And we entered into a license agreement with Hero Moto Company. So that's the first important point. It's a license agreement with our partner that essentially provides us license income at the time when those bikes are being shipped into the market with minimum quantities that we've agreed per contract. So those bikes will not hit our P&L.

是的，克雷格，謝謝你。如您所知，我們退出了印度，這是一家子公司，該子公司也通過我們在 2020 年在印度擁有的一家製造工廠提供服務。我們與 Hero Moto Company 簽訂了許可協議。這是第一點。這是與我們的合作夥伴簽訂的許可協議，當這些自行車以我們按合同約定的最低數量運入市場時，它實質上為我們提供了許可收入。所以這些自行車不會影響我們的損益。

And they are also our wholesaler, as distributor for our big bikes, 600cc plus. Now I look at India as a long-term opportunity. There is huge -- it's a huge market overall, but the premium segment that Harley-Davidson is operating in is relatively small, as we've seen based on our own experience in the past. That said, there is a premium segment that we are now entering into with our partner, Hero. And that is anywhere around -- in terms of price points, certainly a lot lower than our traditional Harley-Davidson price points, but premium in the Indian market. We believe that this is a great entry for 440, which was -- is competitively priced by Hero and has really led to a lot of enthusiasm in the market, if you look at -- and search it. There's lots of reporting and interest, and our partner overall is extremely happy with the results achieved so far.

他們也是我們的批發商，作為我們 600cc 以上大型自行車的經銷商。現在我將印度視為一個長期機遇。總體而言，這是一個巨大的市場，但哈雷戴維森經營的高端市場相對較小，正如我們根據過去的經驗所看到的那樣。也就是說，我們現在正在與我們的合作夥伴 Hero 一起進入一個高端細分市場。就價格點而言，這肯定比我們傳統的哈雷戴維森價格點低很多，但在印度市場上卻是溢價。我們相信，這對於 440 來說是一個很好的入門產品，Hero 的定價極具競爭力，如果您查看並蒐索的話，它確實在市場上引起了很大的熱情。有很多報導和興趣，我們的合作夥伴總體上對迄今為止取得的成果非常滿意。

So -- and to date, there has really only been 1 competitor in the market that has essentially had a monopoly, and that we are trying to break into, providing an alternative with a strong international brand name, the strongest brand name there is in the world of motorcycling, Harley-Davidson. But coupled with the distribution network that complements our Harley-Davidson distribution and dealerships, and therefore, should provide a pretty broad opportunity in terms of units that we're able to sell.

因此，迄今為止，市場上實際上只有一個競爭對手基本上具有壟斷地位，而我們正在努力打入，提供一個具有強大國際品牌的替代品，這是世界上最強大的品牌。摩托車世界，哈雷戴維森。但加上補充我們的哈雷戴維森分銷和經銷商的分銷網絡，因此，在我們能夠銷售的單位方面應該提供相當廣泛的機會。

I'll have to leave it at that, because it's really Hero that's communicating in India. I'm sure they will be reporting on the preorders that we've received so far since we launched, not even 4 weeks ago. But overall, very pleased with the reception since the launch that I also participated in while being in India.

我不得不就此打住，因為在印度進行交流的確實是英雄。我確信他們會報告我們自推出以來收到的預購情況，甚至不到 4 週前。但總的來說，自從我在印度期間也參與了發布以來，人們對它的接待感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from Robby Ohmes from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅比·歐姆斯。

My question is going to be on the U.S. trends. So I was hoping we could get maybe some color on retail trends through the second quarter and into July. And then also just on the dealer inventory levels, how are U.S. dealer inventory levels versus your expectations right now? And maybe also global dealer inventory levels?

我的問題是關於美國的趨勢。所以我希望我們能對第二季度到七月的零售趨勢有所了解。然後，就經銷商庫存水平而言，美國經銷商庫存水平目前與您的預期相比如何？也許還有全球經銷商的庫存水平？

And maybe the -- sorry, I'm throwing 3 in here. And then any color we can get on just the back half motorcycle revenue declines, what the U.S. shipment cadence should be that we expect, maybe for the back half? And does the timing of the new CVO shipments have a meaningful impact on what shipments might look like in the U.S. in the back half?

也許——抱歉，我在這里扔了 3 個。然後，我們可以在後半部分獲得的任何顏色摩托車收入都會下降，我們預期的美國發貨節奏應該是多少，也許是後半部分？新 CVO 的發貨時間是否會對美國下半年的發貨情況產生有意義的影響？

Yes. Let me just start with the question about what we are seeing in July. As in Q1, I would really prefer not to comment on the next quarter. We're not even a full month in. And as we know, there are swings from month to month. So I'll keep it now and in the future and just comment on the past quarter, rather than commenting on trends early on in the quarter. And then Edel, do you want to take the rest?

是的。讓我首先問一下我們在 7 月份會看到什麼。與第一季度一樣，我真的不想對下一季度發表評論。我們還不到一個月。正如我們所知，每個月都會有波動。因此，我現在和將來都會保留它，只評論過去的季度，而不是評論本季度初的趨勢。然後埃德爾，你想接受剩下的嗎？

Yes, of course. Thank you, Robby, for the question. Let me start by the trends that we saw in Q2, specifically in North America retail. As Jochen alluded to in his commentary, this continues to be a year that is challenging for customers in terms of inflation, rates, the overall affordability, and that certainly was a prevalent trend in Q2 as well. We also had the impact of the production suspension that -- even though it was late in the quarter, there were specific bikes that we were expecting and that our customers were expecting that were disrupted, and this certainly had an impact upon our overall retail performance in the back half of June.

是的當然。謝謝羅比的提問。讓我從我們在第二季度看到的趨勢開始，特別是北美零售業的趨勢。正如 Jochen 在評論中提到的那樣，今年在通貨膨脹、利率、整體承受能力方面對客戶來說仍然是充滿挑戰的一年，這當然也是第二季度的普遍趨勢。我們還受到了生產暫停的影響——儘管是在本季度末，但我們預期的特定自行車以及我們的客戶預期的特定自行車都受到了乾擾，這肯定對我們的整體零售業績產生了影響六月下半月。

That said, I think we're very pleased with the overall progress on the trajectory of our core stronghold categories. Both in the U.S. and internationally, we saw growth in our core Touring, Trike, Softail categories. We are also very pleased with the reception of the CVO, which, as you alluded to in the third part of your question, we will see come into full force in the back half of the year. These are already shipping and are already arriving in our dealerships in North America.

也就是說，我認為我們對核心據點類別的總體進展感到非常滿意。無論是在美國還是在國際上，我們都看到了核心旅行車、三輪車、軟尾車類別的增長。我們也對 CVO 的接待感到非常高興，正如您在問題的第三部分提到的，我們將看到它在今年下半年全面生效。這些產品已經發貨並抵達我們在北美的經銷商處。

So overall, we continue to be focused on our pillars of desirability and profitability. We are managing and monitoring inventory very closely as it comes back online post the production suspension to make sure we are prioritizing the right units, that we are ensuring that we have the tools in place to smooth out some of the lumpiness, as you can imagine, is resulting in the network, given that production suspension. We don't have all the bikes that we want, and we don't have all the bikes in the right place, as we're working with our dealers to adjust that, and we'll continue to do so in the back half of the year.

因此，總的來說，我們繼續專注於我們的願望和盈利能力的支柱。我們正在非常密切地管理和監控庫存，因為庫存在生產暫停後重新上線，以確保我們優先考慮正確的單位，確保我們擁有適當的工具來消除一些混亂，正如您可以想像的那樣鑑於生產暫停，導致網絡癱瘓。我們沒有擁有我們想要的所有自行車，也沒有將所有自行車放在正確的位置，因為我們正在與經銷商合作進行調整，我們將在後半段繼續這樣做今年的。

But overall, our intention, to your point around shipping and managing dealer inventory, is to ensure that we are at healthy levels of inventory. We want to protect 2024. We want to make sure that we are managing a cadence of supply that is in line with those overall objectives, and we will continue to do so as we have in the front half of the year, in the back half of the year.

但總的來說，對於您關於運輸和管理經銷商庫存的觀點，我們的目的是確保我們的庫存處於健康的水平。我們希望保護 2024 年。我們希望確保我們管理的供應節奏符合這些總體目標，我們將像今年上半年和下半年一樣繼續這樣做今年的。

Our next question comes from Fred Wightman from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的弗雷德·懷特曼。

Just one follow-up and then a separate question. I know, Jochen, in the past, you talked about full year retail being flat to slightly positive. Wondering if that's still the case. And then the second question, can you just give an update as far as the revenue build that's in that flat to plus 3%? How you sort of see units mix and price shaking out for the full year?

只需一個後續行動，然後再提出一個單獨的問題。我知道，Jochen，您過去曾談到全年零售業持平至略有增長。想知道情況是否仍然如此。然後是第二個問題，您能否更新該公寓的收入增長 3% 的情況？您如何看待全年的單位組合和價格波動？

Yes, I'll let Jonathan take the second question. Overall, it really depends on how the third quarter turns out. And that has very much a reflection of our ability to ship the right bikes to the right dealerships. And yes, as Edel just alluded to, that disruption of our production facility has sort of led to a bit of an imbalance that we need to sort out and are sorting out every day. And -- but to really comment on retail trends at this point is, I think, not advisable. Yes. So I'll have to leave it at that.

是的，我會讓喬納森回答第二個問題。總的來說，這實際上取決於第三季度的結果。這在很大程度上反映了我們將合適的自行車運送到合適的經銷商的能力。是的，正如埃德爾剛才提到的那樣，我們生產設施的中斷在某種程度上導致了一些不平衡，我們需要解決並且每天都在解決這一問題。而且——但我認為，此時真正評論零售趨勢是不可取的。是的。所以我就只能這樣了。

Okay. And then -- thank you, Fred. So a little more information in terms of what we're looking at from a guidance perspective. So as you touched on revenue growth of flat to 3%, our revised forecast includes wholesale unit decreases of around 1% to 3%. And then obviously, as we look, we continue to expect 1 to 2 points of mix as we focus on our profitable core business, and also 1 to 2 points of pricing as we offset a little bit of a more moderated inflationary outlook. The other piece that I'll touch on is as we look at the P&A and A&L business, we do see those businesses continuing to grow year-over-year.

好的。然後——謝謝你，弗雷德。關於我們從指導角度看待的內容，請提供更多信息。因此，當您談到收入增長持平至 3% 時，我們修訂後的預測包括批發單位下降約 1% 至 3%。然後顯然，正如我們所看到的，我們繼續預期 1 到 2 個點的混合，因為我們專注於我們盈利的核心業務，並且也預期 1 到 2 個點的定價，因為我們抵消了一點更溫和的通脹前景。我要談的另一件事是，當我們審視 P&A 和 A&L 業務時，我們確實看到這些業務逐年持續增長。

Our next question comes from Joe Altobello from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的喬·阿爾托貝洛。

I guess, first, could you quantify the impact that the shutdown had on shipments and retail in the quarter, maybe how much of the decline -- or the impact on retail from the discontinuation of Sportster?

我想，首先，您能否量化停產對本季度出貨量和零售業的影響，也許下降了多少，或者 Sportster 停產對零售業的影響？

Thank you, Joe. Well, difficult to pinpoint with precision. As you can imagine, for those bikes that we had named in last names or customers of those that were in highest demand like our anniversary models. It is an easier task to identify the impact of the production suspension. But overall, we know that it has led to some imbalance in the network in terms of where the inventory is, difficult to pinpoint exactly for the broad assortment, but certainly one that we feel was a factor in the back half of June. And we continue, as Jochen mentioned, to work through how and what we bring back in what order and what priority to ensure that we have the right levels of inventory and that we are supporting retail growth in the back half of the year.

謝謝你，喬。嗯，很難精確定位。正如您可以想像的那樣，對於那些我們以姓氏命名的自行車或需求量最高的自行車（例如我們的周年紀念車型）的客戶。確定生產暫停的影響是一項更容易的任務。但總的來說，我們知道這導致了網絡中庫存位置的一些不平衡，很難準確地確定廣泛的品種，但我們認為這肯定是 6 月下旬的一個因素。正如喬亨所提到的，我們將繼續研究如何、以什麼順序和什麼優先級帶回什麼，以確保我們擁有適當的庫存水平，並支持下半年的零售增長。

Our next question comes from James Hardiman from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的詹姆斯·哈迪曼。

I wanted to dig in to maybe that last point. You talked about the right level of inventory. Can you help us figure out what that right level of inventory is? Whether it's sort of total units or weeks on hand to finish the year. Obviously, you pointed out that inventory levels are down pretty substantially versus 2019, but -- so is retail relative to 2019 by a pretty similar amount. And I think the way that you had previously contextualized this was that you were way too high as we think about 2019 in terms of weeks on hand. So maybe any incremental color on how to think about where you finish the year. I can appreciate that it's difficult, not really knowing where retail is going to shake out. But presumably, if retail is down, inventories would need to be down more, sort of situation. So help us walk through that.

我想深入探討最後一點。您談到了適當的庫存水平。您能幫助我們確定正確的庫存水平是多少嗎？無論是總單位數還是完成今年的剩餘週數。顯然，您指出，與 2019 年相比，庫存水平大幅下降，但是，零售業的庫存水平也與 2019 年相比下降了相當相似的水平。我認為您之前對此的描述方式是，當我們以現有周數來考慮 2019 年時，您的預期太高了。因此，也許有任何關於如何思考你今年完成情況的增量顏色。我能理解這很困難，因為我並不真正知道零售業將走向何方。但據推測，如果零售業下降，庫存將需要進一步下降，類似的情況。所以請幫助我們完成這個過程。

Thank you for the question. You're right. We look at it through 3 different lenses. We look at total number of units, we look at days of coverage, and we look at it relative to historical trends as well as actual sales. Our estimations will indicate that we are, in fact, much lower in terms of inventory than in the decline in sales versus 2019. And this is very much in line with our strategy of being more prudent with our inventory and making sure that we are protecting desirability. We intend to continue to manage that balance towards the end of the year.

感謝你的提問。你說得對。我們通過三個不同的視角來看待它。我們查看單位總數，查看覆蓋天數，並查看其相對於歷史趨勢以及實際銷量的情況。我們的估計將表明，與 2019 年相比，我們的庫存實際上比銷售額的下降要低得多。這非常符合我們對庫存更加謹慎並確保保護我們的戰略。願望。我們打算在年底前繼續保持這種平衡。

The inventory levels overall fluctuate throughout the year. Of course, we want to have higher levels to support the riding season. But we continue to monitor that through those 3 lenses, total number of units as well as the days of coverage looking forward into 2024 as well as where we are versus historical levels.

庫存水平全年總體波動。當然，我們希望有更高的水平來支持騎行季節。但我們將繼續通過這 3 個視角來監控這一情況：2024 年的單位總數、覆蓋天數以及我們與歷史水平的比較。

As you indicate, that will be a balance that we will continue to manage through Q3 and into Q4. We intend to make sure that we are managing the production return to that desirability. But it is certainly something where we believe and intend to continue to remain on strategy in terms of a much lighter inventory load, even accounting for declining sales versus 2019.

正如您所指出的，我們將在第三季度和第四季度繼續保持這一平衡。我們打算確保我們正在管理生產恢復到理想狀態。但我們相信並打算繼續維持庫存負荷大幅減輕的戰略，即使考慮到與 2019 年相比銷售額下降的情況也是如此。

Our next question comes from Tristan Thomas-Martin from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的特里斯坦·托馬斯·馬丁。

I just had a question on promos. You introduced some promos in the quarter, the rate buy-downs, the 0 money down on some of the trading credits. Is that kind of what we should expect moving forward? And then also what levers do you have to pull if let's say, you wanted to use retail demand a little bit?

我只是有一個關於促銷的問題。你們在本季度推出了一些促銷活動、利率下調、某些交易信用額的零折扣。這是我們未來應該期待的嗎？如果您想稍微利用一下零售需求，那麼您必須使用什麼槓桿？

Thank you. As you indicate, our main priority in Q2 was around 2 aspects. The first is driving traffic to our dealers. So aside from promotional spend, we certainly ramped up our overall marketing investment in generating leads and generating traffic to dealers. That's the first component, and we intend to continue to maintain those activities. Things like our open houses that we have held a couple throughout the second quarter were extremely successful and we think very well received by both customers as well as dealers.

謝謝。正如您所指出的，我們第二季度的主要優先事項圍繞兩個方面。首先是為我們的經銷商帶來流量。因此，除了促銷支出之外，我們當然還增加了整體營銷投資，以吸引潛在客戶並為經銷商帶來流量。這是第一個組成部分，我們打算繼續維持這些活動。我們在第二季度舉辦的幾次開放日活動非常成功，我們認為受到了客戶和經銷商的好評。

The second are the promotional aspects that you indicate. Our focus is really around the topic of affordability. We have been looking both at promotional rates in conjunction with our dealers as well as trade-in and trade-off promos that allow us to address some of the challenges that our most loyal customers have as they think through an upgrade cycle in the year of 2023, given dynamics with interest rates. We intend to continue to look at those levers in the back half of the year, all within the broader framework of managing desirability. We want to make sure that we remain in healthy levels, but also need to address some of those imbalances in production and inventory as we look towards the back half of 2023.

第二個是您指出的促銷方面。我們的重點實際上是圍繞負擔能力這一主題。我們一直在與我們的經銷商一起研究促銷率以及以舊換新和折衷促銷，這使我們能夠解決我們最忠實的客戶在考慮今年的升級週期時遇到的一些挑戰。考慮到利率的動態變化，到 2023 年。我們打算在今年下半年繼續研究這些槓桿，所有這些都在管理意願的更廣泛框架內進行。展望 2023 年下半年，我們希望確保保持在健康水平，但也需要解決生產和庫存方面的一些不平衡問題。

Our next question comes from Noah Zatzkin from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Noah Zatzkin。

Just one for me on the unchanged HDFS guide. Obviously, year-over-year, the first half kind of tracking below full year guidance. So just wondering if you could provide some color on kind of the puts and takes we should be thinking about in terms of the second half improvement there.

對於我來說，這只是一份未更改的 HDFS 指南。顯然，與去年同期相比，上半年的走勢低於全年指引。因此，只是想知道您是否可以提供一些有關看跌期權和看跌期權的信息，我們應該考慮下半年的改進。

Okay. Thanks, Noah. So as we look at the HDFS guidance and kind of leaving that unchanged throughout the year, we obviously track what we see from an overall delinquency and loss perspective. And as we look at that through the quarters, we're gaining confidence in terms of that being contemplated in terms of where we are from an overall guidance standpoint. Part of what allows us to feel comfortable as we look at some of the -- are some of the changes that we've made from a servicing activity standpoint. So through what we're doing in terms of engaging with consumers who are late, engaging better technology in the way that we do that from a text perspective, as well as e-mail integration. We've also introduced artificial intelligence into the way that we monitor our call activity to ensure that our agents are actually engaging with consumers in a kind of a path that we enjoy.

好的。謝謝，諾亞。因此，當我們查看 HDFS 指導並在全年中保持不變時，我們顯然會從整體拖欠和損失的角度跟踪我們所看到的情況。當我們回顧整個季度的情況時，我們對從總體指導角度考慮的情況越來越有信心。當我們看到一些內容時，讓我們感到舒服的部分原因是我們從服務活動的角度所做的一些改變。因此，通過我們正在做的事情，與遲到的消費者互動，以我們從文本角度以及電子郵件集成的方式使用更好的技術。我們還在監控通話活動的方式中引入了人工智能，以確保我們的客服人員真正以我們喜歡的方式與消費者互動。

We also have seen within the HDFS business some nice engagement and improvement in the revenue side of the equation. So we've been engaged in taking rate where we can, following the Fed actions. And then in addition, we are seeing some improved revenue from the commercial lending side of the business. And then lastly, we also see growth in fee income products associated with things like Visa protection products, insurance and much of our approach in international.

我們還在 HDFS 業務中看到了收入方面的一些良好參與和改進。因此，我們一直在遵循美聯儲的行動，盡可能提高利率。此外，我們還看到商業貸款業務的收入有所改善。最後，我們還看到與簽證保護產品、保險以及我們在國際上的大部分做法相關的費用收入產品的增長。

Our next question comes from David MacGregor from Longbow Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Longbow Research 的 David MacGregor。

I had a question on the Riders Academy. And just specifically on conversion rates. And just -- I wonder if you could just talk about how does the number of Rider Academy graduates that -- graduates that buy a bike compare with what you were seeing a year ago. And of those who do buy a bike, are you seeing any change in terms of their preferences for new bikes versus used bikes?

我有一個關於騎手學院的問題。特別是關於轉化率。我想知道您是否可以談談購買自行車的騎手學院畢業生的數量與一年前相比如何。對於那些購買自行車的人來說，您發現他們對新自行車與二手自行車的偏好有什麼變化嗎？

Well, the Riding Academy in the first quarter was down, and that was purely weather-related, because a lot of the Riding Academy initiatives couldn't happen due to bad weather pretty much throughout America. So -- but the Riding Academies overall, the courses are fully booked, and we expect that to continue. And maybe there is an opportunity that the weather stays better throughout the year and longer. Certainly, nobody is going to do Riding Academy in whatever, 100 Fahrenheit. But weather hasn't been benefiting Riding Academy. But when the courses happen and bookings for our courses are very strong and continue to be strong throughout the year, if weather permits.

嗯，第一季度的馬術學院表現不佳，這純粹與天氣有關，因為幾乎整個美國的惡劣天氣導致馬術學院的許多舉措無法實施。所以，但總體而言，馬術學院的課程已全部預訂完畢，我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。也許天氣有可能全年保持更好，甚至更長時間。當然，沒有人會在 100 華氏度的環境下參加騎術學院。但天氣並沒有給騎術學院帶來好處。但是，當課程開始時，我們課程的預訂量非常大，並且如果天氣允許的話，全年都會保持強勁的預訂量。

(inaudible) rates.

（聽不清）費率。

Yes. Sorry, I just wanted to add a little bit on that as well as your question on new versus used. So we continue to see a very strong conversion rate coming out of our Riding Academy classes. These are 1 of the main avenues that we have for new to sport riders to join the Harley-Davidson brand. We find that our new to sport riders are actually well distributed between both new and used. Obviously, used is a bigger component overall. But they are both in new and used.

是的。抱歉，我只是想補充一點，以及你關於新的和二手的問題。因此，我們繼續看到馬術學院課程的轉化率非常高。這些是我們為運動新手加入哈雷戴維森品牌的主要途徑之一。我們發現，我們的新運動騎手實際上在新騎手和二手騎手之間分佈良好。顯然，總體上使用的是更大的組件。但它們都是新的和二手的。

And it is also true that many of those new to sport riders are entering across the full gamut of our motorcycles, so not necessarily just on smaller CC or lower CC motorcycles, but also on some of our broader or larger motorcycles. So it is an excellent feeder, and we do see conversion of our new to sport riders into both new and used motorcycles across the full gamut of CCs all the way up into our Touring range.

確實，許多新的運動騎手正在進入我們摩托車的整個領域，因此不一定只是較小的 CC 或較低的 CC 摩托車，而且還包括我們的一些更寬或更大的摩托車。因此，它是一個出色的供給者，我們確實看到我們的新運動騎手轉換為全新和二手摩托車，涵蓋整個 CC 範圍，一直到我們的旅行系列。

Our next question comes from Jaime Katz from Morningstar.

我們的下一個問題來自晨星公司的 Jaime Katz。

I guess I'd be interested to hear, given the suspensions you had both last year and this year, is there are any particular protocols you guys have put into place to ensure the quality of the products from the suppliers that you're dealing with. And then if you could, could you clarify whether or not EV is really back on track with the start-up of the Del Mar to ship at the cadence that was previously expected?

我想我很想听聽，考慮到你們去年和今年的暫停，你們是否制定了任何特定的協議來確保與你們打交道的供應商的產品質量。然後，如果可以的話，您能否澄清隨著 Del Mar 的啟動，電動汽車是否真的回到正軌，並按照之前預期的節奏發貨？

Yes. I mean we have a top-notch quality control in place. The issue that we've seen last year and this year are not related, first of all, and they were from a Tier 2 supplier, which is pretty much, quality-wise, supervised by our Tier 1 supplier. So while we have overall quality measures in place and have a Chief Quality Officer as well and very clear mechanisms of how we control quality through -- during production in particular, and thereafter, obviously, with product in the field, we cannot control every single component that is being delivered from Tier 2 suppliers to Tier 1 suppliers. There is some level of control that needs to be provided by the Tier 2 supplier themselves, obviously, and then our Tier 1 supplier as well that are working on using those components into their systems.

是的。我的意思是我們擁有一流的質量控制。首先，我們去年和今年看到的問題並不相關，它們來自二級供應商，從質量角度來看，該供應商幾乎是由我們的一級供應商監督的。因此，雖然我們制定了整體質量措施，並設有首席質量官，並有非常明確的機制來控制質量，特別是在生產過程中，然後，顯然，對於現場的產品，我們無法控制每一個產品從二級供應商交付給一級供應商的組件。顯然，二級供應商本身需要提供一定程度的控制，然後我們的一級供應商也正在致力於將這些組件使用到他們的系統中。

So -- and the 2 -- as I mentioned, these 2 aspects were not related, and we treat that as a quality issue. And through the control that we had, we were -- we found out that there was an issue through our Tier 2 and Tier 1 supplier. So that's as much as I can say. And then Karim do you...

因此，以及第二個方面，正如我提到的，這兩個方面並不相關，我們將其視為質量問題。通過我們的控制，我們發現我們的二級和一級供應商存在問題。我能說的就這麼多了。然後卡里姆你...

Yes, I will. So for EV back on track, well, I guess we got a bit delayed on the start of production for the Del Mar. But we're happy to report that the first bikes actually were produced yesterday. So now we have the ramp-up upcoming in August. So we will be back on track with the Del Mar very soon now.

是的，我會。因此，對於電動車重回正軌，我想我們在 Del Mar 的生產開始上有點延遲。但我們很高興地報告說，第一批自行車實際上是在昨天生產的。所以現在我們即將在八月份進行升級。因此，我們很快就會與 Del Mar 重回正軌。

Our next question comes from Brandon Rolle from D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的布蘭登·羅爾 (Brandon Rolle)。戴維森。

Just quick question on the uneven mix in the channel. Do you believe, given where dealer inventories are at and maybe a little light in some categories, are you expecting a richer mix of product shifts in the back half of the year?

只是簡單地問一下頻道中混合不均勻的問題。您是否認為，考慮到經銷商的庫存狀況以及某些類別的庫存可能較少，您是否預計下半年會有更豐富的產品組合？

Thank you, Brandon, for your question. I think that our main objective is exactly as you pointed out, in those timelines where we have a lower coverage or where we have customers awaiting their bikes to make sure that we are prioritizing those. I'm sure you have heard -- many of you have heard through our dealers that these -- that many of our anniversary bikes are still expecting in the network as well as the increased interest in our Trike lineup, particularly on the back of the launch this year, which has been incredibly successful. So we are trying to be very precise to the question on inventory, not only in the overall total levels domestically and internationally, but also the mix of those units, starting by customer orders as well as those families when we have the best combination of demand and the lowest inventory in the network. So I would expect that, that will continue to be our priority in the back half of the year and to manage to that inventory coverage on a family level.

謝謝布蘭登的提問。我認為我們的主要目標正如您所指出的那樣，在我們的覆蓋範圍較低或我們有客戶等待他們的自行車以確保我們優先考慮這些的時間範圍內。我相信您已經聽說過——你們中的許多人都通過我們的經銷商聽說過——我們的許多周年紀念自行車仍在網絡中期待著，並且人們對我們的三輪車系列的興趣日益濃厚，特別是在今年推出，取得了令人難以置信的成功。因此，我們試圖非常精確地解決庫存問題，不僅包括國內和國際的總體水平，還包括這些單位的組合，從客戶訂單以及我們擁有最佳需求組合的家庭開始以及網絡中最低的庫存。因此，我預計這將繼續成為我們今年下半年的首要任務，並在家庭層面上實現庫存覆蓋。

There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

目前沒有其他問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連接。