Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the fourth quarter 2024 results and full-year 2025 guidance presentation for Hillman Solutions Corp. My name is Shannon, and I'll be your conference call operator today.

早安，歡迎參加 Hillman Solutions Corp. 2024 年第四季業績和 2025 年全年指引報告會。我叫 Shannon，今天我將擔任您的電話會議接線生。

Before we begin, I would like to remind our listeners that today's presentation is being recorded and simultaneously webcast. The company's earnings release and earnings presentation were issued this morning. These documents and a replay of today's presentation can be accessed on Hillman's Investor Relations website at ir.hillmangroup.com.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒我們的聽眾，今天的演講正在錄製並同時進行網路直播。該公司的盈利報告和盈利介紹已於今天上午發布。這些文件和今天示範的重播可以在 Hillman 的投資者關係網站 ir.hillmangroup.com 上查閱。

I would now like to turn the call over to Michael Koehler with Hillman.

現在我想將電話轉給希爾曼的邁克爾·科勒。

Thank you, Shannon. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm Michael Koehler, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Joining me on today's call are our newly appointed President and Chief Executive Officer, Jon Michael Adinolfi, or JMA, as we call him; Rocky Kraft, our Chief Financial Officer; and Doug Cahill, our Executive Chairman.

謝謝你，香農。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。我是麥可‧科勒 (Michael Koehler)，投資者關係與財務副總裁。參加今天電話會議的還有我們新任命的總裁兼首席執行官喬恩·邁克爾·阿迪諾爾菲（Jon Michael Adinolfi，我們稱他為 JMA）、我們的首席財務官洛基·克拉夫特（Rocky Kraft）和我們的執行主席道格·卡希爾（Doug Cahill）。

Before we begin, I would like to remind our audience that certain statements made on today's call may be considered forward-looking and are subject to the safe harbor provisions of applicable securities laws. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, assumptions, and other factors, many of which are beyond the company's control and may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in such statements. Some of the factors that could influence our results are contained in our periodic and annual reports filed with the SEC.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒我們的聽眾，今天電話會議上發表的某些聲明可能被視為前瞻性的，並受適用證券法的安全港條款的約束。這些前瞻性陳述並非對未來績效的保證，並且受某些風險、不確定性、假設和其他因素的影響，其中許多因素超出了公司的控制範圍，並可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中的預測存在重大差異。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告和年度報告中包含了一些可能影響我們績效的因素。

For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties, please see slide 2 in our earnings call slide presentation, which is available on our website. In addition, on today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding our use of and reconciliation of these measures to our GAAP results are available in our earnings qualified presentation. Please note that Hillman expects its 10-K to be filed with the SEC on Thursday of this week.

有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們網站上的收益電話會議幻燈片演示文稿中的第 2 張幻燈片。此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關我們對這些指標的使用以及將這些指標與我們的 GAAP 結果進行調節的信息，可在我們的盈利合格報告中查閱。請注意，Hillman 預計其 10-K 將於本週四向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交。

With that, Doug will begin today's call with a recap of Hillman's 2024 results and highlights. We will then turn the call over to JMA, who will give a brief overview of his perspective on Hillman and what makes this company so special, provide some market commentary, and talk about our outlook for 2025. Rocky will then go through our 2024 financial results before giving a detailed walk through our 2025 guidance. JMA will then give some closing comments before we open things up for your question.

道格將在今天的電話會議上回顧希爾曼 2024 年的業績和亮點。然後，我們將把電話轉給 JMA，他將簡要概述他對 Hillman 的看法以及這家公司的特殊之處，提供一些市場評論，並談論我們對 2025 年的展望。然後，Rocky 將介紹我們 2024 年的財務業績，然後詳細介紹我們 2025 年的指導。在我們開始回答您的問題之前，JMA 將給出一些結束語。

With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to our Executive Chairman, Doug Cahill. Doug?

我很高興將電話轉給我們的執行主席 Doug Cahill。道格？

Thanks, Michael. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

謝謝，麥可。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。

During 2024, our team's dedication to our customers and our commitment to driving strong financial results for our investors came together to deliver an exceptional year for Hillman. Last January, Hillman celebrated its 60th anniversary, marking six decades of taking great care of our customers and building on our robust legacy of service, a legacy that still drives how Hillman does business today. Hillman has differentiated itself from competitors by providing unparalleled service, building deep supplier and industry relationships, and providing innovative solutions for our world-class customers. This has been a key driver of Hillman's track record of growth and why we believe we are in a great position with our company and our customers as we look to the future.

2024 年，我們團隊對客戶的奉獻以及我們致力於為投資者帶來強勁財務業績的承諾共同為希爾曼帶來了非凡的一年。去年 1 月，希爾曼慶祝了 60 週年，這標誌著我們 60 年來始終致力於為客戶提供優質服務，並鞏固了我們強大的服務傳統，這一傳統至今仍推動著希爾曼的經營方式。Hillman 透過提供無與倫比的服務、建立深厚的供應商和行業關係以及為世界一流的客戶提供創新的解決方案，從競爭對手中脫穎而出。這是希爾曼持續成長的關鍵驅動力，也是我們相信未來我們與公司和客戶將處於有利地位的原因。

During 2024, Hillman accomplished something it has never done before. The Hillman team won Vendor of the Year Awards in the same year from both Home Depot and Lowe's, our two biggest customers. We couldn't be more proud. This recognition is not just a reflection of what we've achieved. It's an indication of how deeply embedded we are with our customers. We believe that our customers view us as trusted partners and solution providers.

2024年，希爾曼完成了一件前所未有的事。同年，Hillman 團隊榮獲了我們最大的兩個客戶 Home Depot 和 Lowe's 頒發的「年度供應商獎」。我們感到無比自豪。這種認可不僅反映了我們所取得的成就。這顯示我們與客戶的關係有多密切。我們相信，客戶將我們視為值得信賴的合作夥伴和解決方案提供者。

Our teams have done a phenomenal job managing these relationships, and they are working hard to ensure that we deliver value each and every day at each and every store. These awards highlight a year where we saw the highest EBITDA in our company's history as we continue to run our business well and take care of our customers. Our record bottom line proves that our unique business model can produce healthy profits even with market conditions like we saw last year.

我們的團隊在管理這些關係方面做得非常出色，他們正在努力確保我們每天在每家商店提供價值。這些獎項凸顯了我們在這一年取得了公司歷史上最高的 EBITDA，因為我們繼續良好地經營業務並照顧我們的客戶。我們創紀錄的利潤證明，即使在像去年那樣的市場條件下，我們獨特的商業模式也能產生健康的利潤。

On the M&A front, we made two accretive bolt-on acquisitions. In January 2024, we acquired Koch Industries, a provider of rope and chain-related hardware products. And in August 2024, we acquired Intex DIY, a supplier of wiping cloths, consumable rags, and cleaning textiles. These acquisitions complement Hillman perfectly. They're an adjacent aisles to what we sell today, and our teams can service these products at the shelves of our customers.

在併購方面，我們進行了兩次增值附加收購。2024 年 1 月，我們收購了繩索和鏈條相關硬體產品供應商科赫工業集團 (Koch Industries)。2024 年 8 月，我們收購了擦拭布、消耗性抹布和清潔紡織品供應商 Intex DIY。這些收購對希爾曼來說是完美的補充。它們位於與我們今天銷售的商品相鄰的過道，我們的團隊可以在客戶的貨架上為這些產品提供服務。

Both acquisitions offer organic growth opportunities as we put more stuff on the truck while providing new white space for Hillman to grow. We can now offer our customers even more solutions. What a competitive advantage it is to buy a company and on day one open new growth opportunities for those companies as they now have the Hillman moat behind them: in-store service, direct ship capabilities, and deep relationships at all levels of the best retailers in the industry. We've become really the preferred buyer of those assets from both the seller and our customer's perspective.

這兩次收購都提供了有機成長機會，因為我們將更多的貨物放到了卡車上，同時也為 Hillman 的發展提供了新的空白空間。我們現在可以為客戶提供更多解決方案。收購一家公司並在第一天就為這些公司帶來新的成長機會，這具有多大的競爭優勢，因為他們現在擁有 Hillman 護城河：店內服務、直接發貨能力以及與業內最佳零售商在各個層面的深厚關係。無論從賣方或客戶的角度來看，我們都已成為這些資產的首選買家。

Now, let's turn to our financial highlights for the year. For 60 years, Hillman has provided products used in repair, maintenance, and remodel projects done by [DIYers and pros]. Despite market softness during 2024, net sales totaled $1.473 billion which is just shy of our '23 results and just above the midpoint of our most recent guidance. For the year, our top line was obviously impacted as foot traffic and our retail customers declined nearly 6% compared to the last -- prior year.

現在，讓我們回顧一下今年的財務亮點。60 年來，Hillman 一直為以下機構提供用於維修、保養和改造專案的產品：[DIY 愛好者和專業人士]。儘管 2024 年市場疲軟，但淨銷售額仍達到 14.73 億美元，略低於我們 23 年的業績，略高於我們最新指引的中點。今年，我們的營業收入明顯受到影響，因為客流量和零售客戶與去年相比下降了近 6%。

Existing home sales again fell to 30-year lows, totaling just $4.06 million, and remodel spending declined year over year. This led to a five-point reduction in our market volume in 2024. Offsetting the markets was a four-point contribution from Koch and Intex, two great acquisitions we made during the year and two-point contribution from new business wins as we continue to win market share. Price was a 1% headwind for the year.

現房銷售再次跌至 30 年來的最低點，總額僅 406 萬美元，改造支出較去年同期下降。這導致我們的2024年市場規模減少了5個百分點。抵銷市場影響的是來自科赫和 Intex 的四個百分點的貢獻，這是我們今年進行的兩項重大收購，隨著我們繼續贏得市場份額，新業務的勝利也貢獻了兩個百分點。今年價格下跌了 1%。

For the fourth quarter, our adjusted EBITDA increased 3.5% to $56.3 million, which was right in line with our expectations. Adjusted gross margins improved 390 basis points to 48.1% for 2024 compared to 44.2% during 2023 and 43% during 2022. Driving our improved bottom line and gross margins were sustained operating efficiencies, lower cost of goods sold, and a shift in selling a higher margin mix of products. As JMA will expand on in a few minutes, I believe we are running the business as well as we have at any time in my tenure at Hillman.

第四季度，我們的調整後 EBITDA 成長 3.5% 至 5,630 萬美元，這完全符合我們的預期。2024 年調整後毛利率提高 390 個基點至 48.1%，而 2023 年為 44.2%，2022 年為 43%。推動我們提高底線利潤和毛利率的因素包括持續的營運效率、較低的銷售成本以及銷售利潤率更高的產品組合的轉變。JMA 將在幾分鐘後繼續詳細說明，我相信我們現在的業務營運狀況與我在 Hillman 任職期間的任何時候一樣好。

Additionally, in 2025, we're implementing performance-based equity compensation for our top executives using a return on invested capital metric. This links 50% of their annual equity grants to return on invested capital going forward.

此外，到 2025 年，我們將使用投資資本回報率指標為高階主管實施基於績效的股權薪酬。這將使他們每年 50% 的股權授予與未來投資資本的回報掛鉤。

Now, let me give you a few comments on the performance of our two largest business. Hardware and Protective Solutions or HPS is our biggest business. HPS increased its adjusted EBITDA by 23% for the year with flat top line results and continues to be the poster child for the Hillman moat and the value we bring to our customers that others don't. Our Robotics and Digital Solutions business will be a great example of both our shareholders and top customers benefiting from the new strategy we successfully launched during 2024.

現在，讓我就我們兩大業務的表現發表一些評論。硬體和保護解決方案或HPS是我們最大的業務。HPS 全年調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 23%，營收表現平穩，並繼續成為 Hillman 護城河的典範，為客戶帶來其他公司無法提供的價值。我們的機器人和數位解決方案業務將成為我們的股東和頂級客戶受益於我們在 2024 年成功推出的新策略的一個很好的例子。

RDS has always been the leader for Hillman and adjusted EBITDA margins and gross margins, but the capital we have invested in the returns on that capital have been a drag on our performance. JMA will expand on our strategy and share whether this business will become a great contributor not only adjusted and gross margin but cash flow, too, which will drive healthy return on invested capital as our strategy plays out.

RDS 一直是 Hillman 的領導者，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率和毛利率也一直居於領先地位，但我們為獲得資本回報而投入的資本卻拖累了我們的業績。JMA 將擴展我們的策略，並分享這項業務是否不僅會成為調整後毛利率的巨大貢獻者，還會成為現金流的巨大貢獻者，這將在我們的策略實施過程中推動投資資本的健康回報。

I love this company, and I'm honored to have turned the CEO reins over to JMA. He is the perfect fit for this experienced team and customer-first culture that we have built over many years at Hillman. I'm proud of the great job we do for our customers, our track record for bottom line growth, and how we have strengthened the balance sheet and paid down over $900 million of debt in the past four years. I will continue to support this company any way that I can.

我熱愛這家公司，很榮幸能將執行長的職位交給 JMA。他非常適合希爾曼多年來建立的這支經驗豐富的團隊和客戶至上的文化。我為我們為客戶所做的出色工作、我們的底線成長記錄以及我們在過去四年中如何加強資產負債表並償還超過 9 億美元的債務感到自豪。我將盡我所能繼續支持這家公司。

And with that, it is my pleasure to turn it over to JMA.

現在，我很高興將它交給 JMA。

Thanks, Doug. I'm grateful for the opportunity to be the sixth CEO in Hillman's 60-year history. When I look around Hillman, I'm excited and encouraged about the future. I'm surrounded by a fantastic leadership team and talented folks throughout our organization. We have world-class customers who trust us and our true partners, and we have excellent long-term suppliers.

謝謝，道格。我很感激有機會成為希爾曼 60 年歷史上的第六任執行長。當我環顧希爾曼時，我對未來感到興奮和鼓舞。我周圍有一支出色的領導團隊和遍布整個組織的才華橫溢的員工。我們擁有信任我們的世界級客戶和我們真正的合作夥伴，我們擁有優秀的長期供應商。

Hillman is a great company, and I'm fired up about the future. Doug and I are fully aligned on the path forward, and we see a clear opportunity to accelerate growth. When I think about our strategy, our customer relationships, and the unique competitive mode that defines Hillman, we have challenged ourselves to profitably grow this business to $2 billion in net sales over the next three to five years.

希爾曼是一家很棒的公司，我對未來充滿信心。道格和我對未來發展的方向完全一致，我們看到了加速成長的明顯機會。當我思考我們的策略、我們的客戶關係以及希爾曼獨特的競爭模式時，我們挑戰自己在未來三到五年內將這項業務盈利性地增長到 20 億美元的淨銷售額。

The question is, how do we get there? Well, here's how. First, we remain laser-focused on growing and protecting the core of our business. We will continue to take care of our customers and win new business, which will add 2% to 3% top line growth per year. We also expect to see the markets return to 2% to 3% volume growth in the future. Together, new business and market growth, coupled with price, results in organic top line growth of 5% to 6%.

問題是，我們要如何實現這個目標？好吧，方法如下。首先，我們始終專注於發展和保護我們的核心業務。我們將繼續照顧我們的客戶並贏得新業務，這將使每年的營業額增加 2% 至 3%。我們也預計未來市場銷售成長率將恢復至 2% 至 3%。新業務和市場成長加上價格共同推動有機營收成長 5% 至 6%。

This follows the trend we have seen over the last 20 plus years. But to get back to this level of growth, we need the macro environment to improve and market growth to return. Beyond organic growth, strategic acquisitions will play a critical role in scaling our business. Our plan is to execute two to three acquisitions per year. These acquisitions will complement our moat, strengthen our competitive position, and create opportunities for long-term organic growth and value creation.

這符合我們過去 20 多年來看到的趨勢。但要恢復這一成長水平，我們需要宏觀環境改善和市場成長恢復。除了有機成長之外，策略收購將在擴大我們的業務方面發揮關鍵作用。我們的計劃是每年進行兩到三次收購。這些收購將補充我們的護城河，加強我們的競爭地位，並為長期有機成長和價值創造創造機會。

This company has executed over 35 transactions in its history, and we know how to do it well. As Doug pointed out earlier, our moat and our experience make Hillman a great buyer. We have the right focus, the right team, and the right strategy. We have executed well, and we've built a strong foundation for the future.

該公司歷史上已經執行過 35 多筆交易，我們知道如何做好這些交易。正如道格之前指出的那樣，我們的護城河和經驗使希爾曼成為一個偉大的買家。我們有正確的重點、正確的團隊、正確的策略。我們執行得很好，為未來打下了堅實的基礎。

As we position Hillman for its next 60 years of growth, we have accelerated our focus on technology and are implementing plans to leverage the cloud and artificial intelligence to make our company more effective and efficient. This will allow us to take better care of our customers, improve how we do business, and further strengthen our relationships with our partners.

在為希爾曼未來 60 年的成長做好準備時，我們加快了對技術的關注，並正在實施利用雲端和人工智慧的計劃，以使我們的公司更加有效和高效。這將使我們能夠更好地照顧我們的客戶，改善我們的經營方式，並進一步加強我們與合作夥伴的關係。

In 2025, you will see us continue to invest in our cloud migration. We are confident that an investment like this is necessary when you have over 111,000 SKUs and shipped to nearly 30,000 retail locations annually. We're excited about this migration as it will make Hillman easier to do business with and strengthen our moat.

2025 年，您將看到我們繼續投資於雲端遷移。我們相信，當您擁有超過 111,000 個 SKU 並且每年運送到近 30,000 個零售點時，這樣的投資是必要的。我們對這次遷移感到非常興奮，因為它將使 Hillman 更容易開展業務並加強我們的護城河。

Speaking of, let me take a few minutes to give my perspective on the Hillman moat. The first piece of our moat is our 1,200 field sales and service folks. Our customers can trust that Hillman's warriors will be in their stores, writing orders, organizing aisles, and servicing our kiosks on a regular basis. This not only enables our retailers to sell more product, it reduces their in-store labor issues for critical categories within the store. These are examples of value adds that you get when you do business with Hillman.

說到這裡，請容許我花幾分鐘時間來談談我對希爾曼護城河的看法。我們的護城河的第一部分是我們的 1,200 名現場銷售和服務人員。我們的客戶可以相信希爾曼的戰士會定期在他們的商店裡寫訂單、組織過道並為我們的攤位提供服務。這不僅使我們的零售商能夠銷售更多產品，還減少了店內關鍵類別的店內勞動力問題。這些是您與 Hillman 開展業務時獲得的增值的範例。

The second part of our moat is our ability to ship store direct. We pick, pack, and ship approximately 65% of what we sell directly to the retail locations of our customers. That means, the majority of our products bypass the DC networks of our customers and are shipped directly to our retailer stores. Importantly, with high fill rates, our customers can trust that Hillman's products will arrive at their stores on time and in full.

我們的護城河的第二部分是我們直接向商店發貨的能力。我們挑選、包裝並運送約 65% 的商品，直接送到客戶的零售店。這意味著，我們的大多數產品繞過客戶的 DC 網絡，直接運送到我們的零售商店。重要的是，憑藉高填充率，我們的客戶可以相信希爾曼的產品將準時且完整地到達他們的商店。

The third part of our moat comes from our 60 years of experience. Our customers don't just buy products from us; they buy solutions. They look to Hillman to help them manage the category. We have insight to data that allows us to optimize category management, remove complexity, and drive results for our customers. That makes Hillman a trusted partner.

我們的護城河的第三部分來自於我們60年的經驗。我們的客戶不僅向我們購買產品；他們還購買解決方案。他們希望希爾曼能夠幫助他們管理這個類別。我們擁有豐富的數據洞察，可以優化品類管理、消除複雜性並為客戶帶來成果。這使得希爾曼成為值得信賴的合作夥伴。

Approximately 90% of what we sell are company-owned brands. Hillman's brands are well known among the [DIYers and pros]. When you buy a Hillman product, the end user knows it's a great product. Additionally, distributing brands that we own allows us to differentiate our offerings, often tailoring programs and packaging to meet the needs of our customers.

我們銷售的商品約 90% 都是公司自有品牌。Hillman 的品牌在[DIY 愛好者和專業人士]。當您購買 Hillman 產品時，最終用戶知道這是一款很棒的產品。此外，分銷我們自己的品牌使我們能夠提供差異化的產品，通常可以客製化方案和包裝來滿足客戶的需求。

Lastly, we have long-standing relationships with our customers. We've been working with our top five customers for nearly 30 years on average, and they're viewed as a partner rather than just a supplier. Over time, we built great relationships throughout these world-class organizations. This includes the associates in the store, store managers, merchants, and leadership. Together as partners, both companies are 100% aligned on selling and satisfying the needs of the end user.

最後，我們與客戶保持長期的合作關係。我們與前五名客戶平均合作了近 30 年，他們被視為合作夥伴而不僅僅是供應商。隨著時間的推移，我們與這些世界級的組織建立了良好的關係。其中包括商店員工、商店經理、商家和領導者。作為合作夥伴，兩家公司在銷售和滿足最終用戶需求方面達成了 100% 的一致。

Before I turn it over to Rocky, let me give you my view of the market. Over the past few years, we've proven that we can successfully navigate a challenging macro environment while still growing our bottom line at an average clip of over 7% per year. It makes sense how the macro hasn't helped, considering the pull forward of home improvement activity during COVID pandemic, the sharp decline in existing home sales, and the decrease in home improvement spending over the last few years.

在將話題交給 Rocky 之前，請容許我先談談我對市場的看法。過去幾年來，我們已經證明，我們可以成功應對充滿挑戰的宏觀環境，同時仍以平均每年 7% 以上的速度成長我們的利潤。考慮到新冠疫情期間家居裝修活動的提前、現房銷售的急劇下降以及過去幾年家居裝修支出的減少，宏觀經濟沒有起到幫助作用是有道理的。

During 2025, we're hopeful that home improvement activity starts to pick up. That said, we aren't going to predict when the market turns, but we, like our customers, will be ready when it happens. And our customers believe that when it does turn, that run will last for several years. That said, even if the market looks like it did in 2024, we are confident that our business will grow in 2025.

我們希望，到 2025 年，家居裝修活動將開始回升。也就是說，我們無法預測市場何時轉變，但當市場轉變發生時，我們會像我們的客戶一樣做好準備。我們的客戶相信，一旦它真的轉變，這種運作將持續數年。也就是說，即使市場看起來與 2024 年一樣，我們也相信我們的業務將在 2025 年成長。

The HPS business is solid and stable in both good times and bad. Throughout 2024, we've enhanced our global supply chain and continue transitioning, sourcing volume out of China into Vietnam, Taiwan, India, and other countries. This strategy combined with the investments into our infrastructure has enabled Hillman to build an even more efficient distribution network that is ready for growth.

無論在順境或逆境中，HPS 業務都穩固而穩定。在整個 2024 年，我們將增強全球供應鏈並繼續轉型，將採購量從中國轉移到越南、台灣、印度和其他國家。這項策略與對基礎設施的投資相結合，使 Hillman 能夠建立一個更有效率的分銷網絡，為成長做好準備。

Our sales and service organization has never been stronger. Throughout 2024, we've aligned our US retail leaders and our sales and service teams under Brett Hillman. Brett is the grandson of our founder, Max Hillman, and has been taking care of our customers at Hillman for over 20 years. Brett has excelled at every level and has grown our business meaningfully throughout his career. He has assembled a fantastic team and implemented new strategies, which are already making an impact. Together, our sales, operations, and other support functions are primed for 2025.

我們的銷售和服務組織從未如此強大。在整個 2024 年，我們將美國零售領導以及銷售和服務團隊納入 Brett Hillman 的領導之下。布雷特 (Brett) 是我們創辦人馬克斯·希爾曼 (Max Hillman) 的孫子，20 多年來一直在希爾曼 (Hillman) 為客戶服務。布雷特在各個層面都表現出色，在他的整個職業生涯中，我們的業務都得到了顯著成長。他組建了一支出色的團隊並實施了新的策略，這些策略已經產生了影響。我們的銷售、營運和其他支援職能已為 2025 年做好了準備。

During the year, we are launching new business in both our core HBS product categories as well as our newly acquired product categories from Koch and Intex. We have secured new business wins in power screws, rope and chain, work gear, and several other areas that will get us back to growth in 2025.

今年，我們將在核心 HBS 產品類別以及從 Koch 和 Intex 新收購的產品類別中開展新業務。我們在動力螺絲、繩索和鏈條、工作設備和其他幾個領域贏得了新的業務，這將使我們在 2025 年恢復成長。

Turning to RDS. With our MinuteKey 3.5 strategy in place, we believe that RDS will return to growth in 2025. Let me tell you why. First, we have a new leader, Scott Moore, who took over as President of RDS last year. He's done a great job executing our MinuteKey 3.5 rollout ahead of schedule and has breathed new life and renewed energy into our RDS teams.

轉向 RDS。隨著我們的 MinuteKey 3.5 策略實施，我們相信 RDS 將在 2025 年恢復成長。讓我來告訴你為什麼。首先，我們有了一位新領導人，斯科特摩爾 (Scott Moore)，他去年接任 RDS 總裁。他出色地提前完成了我們的 MinuteKey 3.5 推出，並為我們的 RDS 團隊注入了新的活力和新的能量。

Second, both of our top two RDS partners have agreed to have our MinuteKey 3.5 machines in all their stores across the country by the end of 2026. These machines feature enhanced capabilities like the ability to duplicate smart auto fobs, auto transponders, RFID fobs, and also have the (inaudible). All of these new machines will have credit card readers, allowing the customer to complete transactions quickly and easily right at the kiosk.

其次，我們的兩大 RDS 合作夥伴均同意在 2026 年底之前在其全國所有商店中安裝我們的 MinuteKey 3.5 機器。這些機器具有增強的功能，例如能夠複製智慧汽車遙控器、汽車應答器、RFID 遙控器，並且還具有（聽不清楚）。所有這些新機器都將配備信用卡讀卡器，讓顧客能夠在自助服務終端快速輕鬆地完成交易。

Our customers love our kiosks, and our revenue sharing arrangements allow our customers to collect regular payments from Hillman without having to deploy capital or any resources in their stores. These two customers have made the decision that Hillman is their partner for both manual and full-service keys. They rely on us to grow the business, and so far, we are. Our MinuteKey 3.5 machines are generating a healthy lift in revenue versus MinuteKey 3.0, and that is before Hillman and our world-class customers will be aggressively going after this new market together.

我們的客戶喜歡我們的自助服務終端，我們的收入分成安排使我們的客戶能夠從 Hillman 收取定期付款，而無需在其商店中部署資本或任何資源。這兩位客戶已決定選擇 Hillman 作為其手動和全方位服務鑰匙的合作夥伴。他們依靠我們來發展業務，到目前為止，我們確實做到了。與 MinuteKey 3.0 相比，我們的 MinuteKey 3.5 機器的收入有了健康成長，而這還是在 Hillman 和我們的世界級客戶共同積極進軍這個新市場之前。

On the manual side of key cutting, we continue to have great engagement with Ace. Their full-service approach to key cutting continues to be a differentiator for their business. The Hillman moat adds tremendous value to the complex segment of manual key cutting.

在手動配鑰匙方面，我們繼續與 Ace 保持良好的合作。他們對配鑰匙的全方位服務方式繼續成為他們業務的差異化因素。Hillman 護城河為複雜的手動鑰匙切割部分增添了巨大的價值。

And lastly, we have sharpened our focus when it comes to RDS capital. As Rocky talked about on the earnings call last quarter, we're approaching our investment to RDS more prudently, with a focus on generating attractive returns on invested capital. Because of this, we will not invest capital to build or upgrade machines where we don't expect to see a return on investment. As a result, we expect to see some attrition with customers outside of our top three RDS partners, which are Lowe's, Home Depot, and Ace.

最後，我們更加關注 RDS 資本。正如 Rocky 在上個季度的收益電話會議上所談到的，我們正在更加謹慎地對待對 RDS 的投資，重點是獲得可觀的投資回報。正因為如此，我們不會投資建造或升級那些我們預期不會獲得投資回報的機器。因此，我們預計除了我們的三大 RDS 合作夥伴（Lowe's、Home Depot 和 Ace）之外的客戶會有所流失。

We expect RDS-related CapEx will peak in 2025 and will decline by about $20 million in 2026 as we complete our MinuteKey 3.5 rollout. Once we have fully deployed capital for the rollout, we expect RDS alone to generate around $50 million of free cash flow on annualized basis.

我們預計，RDS 相關的資本支出將在 2025 年達到峰值，並隨著我們完成 MinuteKey 3.5 的推出，在 2026 年將下降約 2000 萬美元。一旦我們為推廣專案充分部署了資本，我們預計僅 RDS 就能夠產生約 5000 萬美元的年度自由現金流。

Now, let's take a step back and reflect on how we've executed over the last few years. During 2023, we did a great job normalizing inventory levels, paying down debt, executing sizable new business wins, and setting up Hillman for streamline operations.

現在，讓我們回顧一下過去幾年我們的表現。2023 年，我們在正常化庫存水準、償還債務、實現可觀的新業務成功以及為 Hillman 精簡營運方面做得非常出色。

Last year, we saw our investments into operations pay off as we took great care of our customers, delivered improvements in our global supply chain, and executed two M&A deals. This year, we will continue this momentum. We will return to growth as we leverage the Hillman moat to win new business and execute M&A.

去年，我們看到了對營運的投資獲得了回報，因為我們非常關心客戶，改善了全球供應鏈，並執行了兩筆併購交易。今年，我們將繼續保持這股勢頭。我們將利用希爾曼護城河贏得新業務並執行併購，恢復成長。

With that, I'll turn it to Rocky to talk numbers.

說完這些，我就請 Rocky 來談談數字。

Thanks, JMA. Before I get into our guidance for 2025, I'll provide a summary of our fourth quarter and year-end results.

謝謝，JMA。在介紹 2025 年的指引之前，我將對我們的第四季和年終業績進行總結。

Fourth quarter 2024, net sales increased 0.5% to $349.6 million versus the prior year quarter. 2024 full-year net sales totaled $1.473 billion, which is down slightly versus 2023 and came in slightly above the midpoint of our revised guidance range. 2024's top line was the result of a four-point contribution from Koch and Intex, a two-point contribution from new business wins, offset by a 1% headwind on price and a 5% headwind for market volumes.

2024 年第四季度，淨銷售額較去年同期成長 0.5% 至 3.496 億美元。 2024 年全年淨銷售額總計 14.73 億美元，較 2023 年略有下降，略高於我們修訂後的指導範圍中點。 2024 年的營收成長得益於 Koch 和 Intex 的四個百分點貢獻、新業務勝利的兩個百分點貢獻，但價格上漲 1% 和市場銷量上漲 5% 的不利因素抵消了這一影響。

Fourth-quarter adjusted gross profit margin decreased 50 basis points to 47.7% versus the prior quarter, which was in line with our expectations. For the full-year 2024, adjusted gross profit margin increased 390 basis points to 48.1% from 44.2% during 2023. Our gross margin improvement for the year was the result of improved operating efficiencies, lower COGS, and a higher margin mix of products sold.

第四季調整後毛利率較上一季下降50個基點至47.7%，符合我們的預期。2024 年全年調整後毛利率從 2023 年的 44.2% 增加 390 個基點至 48.1%。我們本年度毛利率的提高是由於營運效率的提高、銷貨成本的降低以及銷售產品利潤率的提高。

Q4 2024 adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales decreased to 31.5% from 32.5% during the year ago quarter. For the full-year 2024, adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales increased to 31.6% from 29.5%. The quarterly decrease was due to our standard employee bonus expense accrual, which was larger in Q4 2023 compared to Q4 2024. The annual increase was the result of 2024 standard employee bonus expense in the aggregate and IT expense, which were both greater in 2024 than 2023, as well as the true value charge, which I will touch on in a moment.

2024 年第四季調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比從去年同期的 32.5% 下降至 31.5%。2024 年全年，調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比從 29.5% 上升至 31.6%。季度下降是由於我們的標準員工獎金費用應計，2023 年第四季與 2024 年第四季相比有所增加。年度成長是由於 2024 年標準員工獎金支出總額和 IT 支出（2024 年均高於 2023 年）以及真實價值費用（我稍後會談到）。

Adjusted EBITDA on the fourth quarter increased 3.5% to $56.3 million, which was right in line with our expectations. After dialogue with the SEC, we revised our presentation of adjusted EBITDA to include the $8.6 million dollar write-off of receivables from True Value, which was previously excluded from our adjusted EBITDA figures. The charge resulted from True Value's Chapter 11 filing in October of 2024, the details of which were fully disclosed in our Q3 earnings call. The majority of this impacted our third quarter and therefore, our full-year results. The impact on the fourth quarter was minimal.

第四季調整後的 EBITDA 成長 3.5% 至 5,630 萬美元，完全符合我們的預期。在與美國證券交易委員會對話後，我們修改了調整後 EBITDA 的呈現方式，將 True Value 的 860 萬美元應收帳款註銷納入其中，而這筆款項之前被排除在我們的調整後 EBITDA 數字之外。這筆費用源自於 True Value 於 2024 年 10 月提交的第 11 章破產申請，其詳細資訊已在我們的第三季財報電話會議上完整揭露。這主要影響了我們的第三季業績，因此也影響了我們的全年業績。對第四季的影響微乎其微。

That said, our adjusted EBITDA for 2024 increased 10.2% to $241.8 million, which includes the $8.6 million dollar charge from True Value. Our adjusted EBITDA to net sales margin during the quarter was 16.4%, which compares favorably to 14.9% a year ago.

也就是說，我們 2024 年的調整後 EBITDA 成長了 10.2%，達到 2.418 億美元，其中包括來自 True Value 的 860 萬美元費用。本季我們的調整後 EBITDA 與淨銷售額的利潤率為 16.4%，與去年同期的 14.9% 相比有所改善。

Now, let me turn to cash flow in the balance sheet. During 2024, operating activities generated $183 million of cash versus $283 million in 2023. Remember that during 2023, we had an outsized working capital benefit as we were able to reduce our net inventories by over $100 million throughout the year as we returned to normal inventory levels following the supply chain disruption from Asia.

現在，讓我來看看資產負債表中的現金流。2024 年，經營活動產生的現金為 1.83 億美元，而 2023 年為 2.83 億美元。請記住，在 2023 年期間，我們獲得了巨額營運資金收益，因為在亞洲供應鏈中斷後，我們恢復了正常庫存水平，全年淨庫存減少了 1 億多美元。

Capital expenditures for the year were $85 million compared to $66 million in 2023. The increase relates to the accelerated rollout of MinuteKey 3.5 and continued rollout of the new fastener set at one of our major customers. As JMA discussed, we are taking a measured and prudent approach to our CapEx investments.

今年的資本支出為 8,500 萬美元，而 2023 年為 6,600 萬美元。此次成長與 MinuteKey 3.5 的加速推出以及我們其中一個主要客戶新緊固件套件的持續推出有關。正如 JMA 所討論的，我們對資本支出投資採取了審慎和審慎的態度。

As you will see in our proxy statement later this year, we are introducing performance shares that use return on invested capital as a metric to determine our executive team's equity compensation. We believe this aligns well with our shareholders' interests and will be beneficial over the long term.

正如您將在今年稍後的代理聲明中看到的那樣，我們將推出績效股，以投資資本回報率作為衡量標準來確定我們高階主管團隊的股權薪酬。我們相信這符合我們股東的利益，並且從長遠來看是有利的。

Free cash flow for the year totaled $98.1 million versus $172.3 million in 2023. Free cash flow came in a bit below our expectations, which was impacted by CapEx and our soft top line. During the year, we used free cash flow to pay down $48 million of debt and to fund the acquisitions of both Koch and Intex. We ended 2024 with $674 million of net debt versus $722 million at the end of 2023.

全年自由現金流總計 9,810 萬美元，而 2023 年為 1.723 億美元。自由現金流略低於我們的預期，受到資本支出和軟頂線的影響。本年度，我們利用自由現金流償還了 4,800 萬美元的債務，並為 Koch 和 Intex 的收購提供了資金。截至 2024 年底，我們的淨債務為 6.74 億美元，而 2023 年底為 7.22 億美元。

Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we repriced our term note, lowering the interest rate margin by 25 basis points on our borrowing cost, which now sit at SOFR plus 200 basis points. $360 million of the term note balances swapped to a fixed all-in rate of 5.69% that runs through January of 2027.

本季結束後，我們重新定價了定期票據，將借貸成本的利率差降低了 25 個基點，目前為 SOFR 加 200 個基點。 3.6 億美元的定期票據餘額被交換為 5.69% 的固定全包利率，有效期至 2027 年 1 月。

Our net debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA ratio at the end of 2024 was 2.8 times, which improved from 3.3 times at the end of 2023. Our long-term adjusted EBITDA to net debt leverage ratio target is to be at or below 2.5 times. This leverage allows us to grow the M&A, invest in future growth opportunities, and to be opportunistic when it comes to using our balance sheet to add shareholder value.

截至 2024 年底，我們的淨負債與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 2.8 倍，高於 2023 年底的 3.3 倍。我們的長期調整後 EBITDA 與淨債務槓桿目標是等於或低於 2.5 倍。這種槓桿作用使我們能夠擴大併購，投資未來的成長機會，並在利用資產負債表增加股東價值時抓住機會。

Now, let me talk about our guidance. For 2025, we anticipate full-year net sales to be between $1.495 billion to $1.575 billion with a midpoint of $1.535 billion. Historically, our top line has grown about 6% annually. This consists of approximately 1% price and 2% to 3% market growth, which looks a lot like GDP, and 2% to 3% growth from new business wins.

現在，我來談談我們的指導。到 2025 年，我們預計全年淨銷售額將在 14.95 億美元至 15.75 億美元之間，中間值為 15.35 億美元。從歷史上看，我們的營業額每年增長約 6%。這包括大約 1% 的價格和 2% 到 3% 的市場成長，看起來很像 GDP，以及來自新業務勝利的 2% 到 3% 的成長。

The midpoint of our 2025 top line guide includes the following assumptions. We're assuming that price is neutral for the year, a 1% decrease from overall market volumes, a 2.5% lift from new business wins, and a 2.5% lift from the Intex [acquisition], which closed at the end of August 2024.

我們的 2025 年頂線指南的中點包括以下假設。我們假設今年的價格是中性的，整體市場交易量下降 1%，新業務贏得成長 2.5%，Intex [收購] 成長 2.5%（於 2024 年 8 月底完成）。

To unpack our price assumptions for 2025, we expect that price will be a headwind of about 1% during the first half of the year based on the roll forward of price givebacks that went into place in 2024.

為了解釋我們對 2025 年的價格假設，我們預計，根據 2024 年實施的價格回退措施的延續，今年上半年價格將出現約 1% 的逆風。

We continue to monitor our costs closely. (technical difficulty) from Asia, outbound freight, rented our distribution center, the cost of labor; I could go on and on. None of these costs are going down in our business, and we must think strategically about how and when we can offset those costs.

我們將繼續密切監控我們的成本。 （技術難題）來自亞洲的出境貨運費、租用配送中心的費用、勞動成本；我可以繼續說下去。在我們的業務中，這些成本都沒有下降，我們必須從策略上思考如何以及何時才能抵消這些成本。

Our 2025 net sales figure will be closely tied to our customers' performance, which is predominantly driven by their sales, securing new business wins coupled with the overall health of the consumer repair and remodel activity and existing home sale, (inaudible) our outcomes.

我們的 2025 年淨銷售額將與客戶的業績緊密相關，而客戶的業績主要由他們的銷售額、確保新業務的成功以及消費者維修和改造活動以及現有房屋銷售的整體健康狀況決定，（聽不清楚）我們的成果。

For our bottom line, we expect full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA to total between $255 million and $275 million. The midpoint of $265 million represents an increase of about 10% versus 2024. We expect our full-year adjusted gross margins to come in above 47% for the year.

就我們的底線而言，我們預計 2025 年全年調整後的 EBITDA 總額將在 2.55 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間。2.65 億美元的中點比 2024 年成長了約 10%。我們預計全年調整後的毛利率將達到 47% 以上。

Lastly, free cash flow during 2025 is expected to come in between $90 million to $110 million with a midpoint of $100 million, impacting our free cash flow expectation for the year is $90 million of CapEx, which is elevated due to the expansion of our MinuteKey 3.5 fleet and fastener [racking] at one of our major customers.

最後，預計 2025 年的自由現金流將在 9,000 萬美元至 1.1 億美元之間，中間值為 1 億美元，這將影響我們今年的自由現金流預期，即 9,000 萬美元的資本支出，這一數字的上升是由於我們在一位主要客戶處擴大了 MinuteKey 3.5 車隊和緊固件 [3.5 車隊和緊固件 [3.5 個貨架]。

We expect that we will have 2025 around 2.2 times lever. This assumes we fall near the midpoint of our guidance and does not include any impact of M&A. During Q1 of 2025, we expect free cash flow to be negative, and our leverage will likely tick up slightly as we build inventory to support our busy spring and summer seasons. This is typical for Hillman in a normal year. After the first quarter, we expect to generate cash each quarter and see our leverage decline throughout 2025.

我們預計，2025 年槓桿率將達到 2.2 倍左右。這假設我們接近指導的中點，並且不包括任何併購的影響。在 2025 年第一季度，我們預計自由現金流為負，隨著我們建立庫存以支持繁忙的春季和夏季，我們的槓桿率可能會略有上升。對於希爾曼來說，這在正常年份很常見。第一季之後，我們預計每季都會產生現金，我們的槓桿率在 2025 年全年都會下降。

Other assumptions that are factored into our 2025 guide are as follows. Interest expense of $45 million to $55 million, cash interest of $40 million to $50 million, cash taxes of $15 million to $25 million. CapEx, as I said previously, of approximately $90 million. Restructuring-related and other expenses, we believe, will total approximately $10 million. And our fully diluted weighted average share count will be approximately $201 million shares.

我們的 2025 年指南中考慮的其他假設如下。利息支出為 4,500 萬至 5,500 萬美元，現金利息為 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元，現金稅為 1,500 萬至 2,500 萬美元。正如我之前所說，資本支出約為 9000 萬美元。我們認為，重組相關費用及其他費用總計約 1,000 萬美元。我們的完全稀釋加權平均股數將約為 2.01 億股。

Our success managing costs and executing M&A during 2024 were big positives for Hillman. Looking forward, we look to build on this and believe that our competitive moat and longstanding relationships with our customers will allow us to win. We are laser-focused on getting Hillman back to growth during 2025 and look forward to updating you on our progress throughout the year.

我們在 2024 年成功管理成本並執行併購對 Hillman 來說是巨大的利多。展望未來，我們希望在此基礎上再接再厲，並相信我們的競爭優勢和與客戶的長期關係將使我們取得勝利。我們致力於讓 Hillman 在 2025 年恢復成長，並期待全年向您通報我們的進展。

With that, let me throw it back to JMA.

說完這些，讓我把它拋回給 JMA。

Thanks, Rocky. We are optimistic about the year, and we're excited to keep playing offense. We are confident we will drive share gains and generate top line and bottom line growth during 2025. We will work tirelessly to fulfill our commitment to all of our stakeholders, which include our customers, our suppliers, team members, and our investors. We look forward to updating you during the year with our progress.

謝謝，洛基。我們對今年充滿樂觀，並且很高興能夠繼續進攻。我們有信心在 2025 年推動市場佔有率成長並實現營收和利潤成長。我們將不懈地履行對所有利害關係人的承諾，包括我們的客戶、供應商、團隊成員和投資者。我們期待今年向您通報我們的進展。

With that, we'll begin the Q&A portion of our call. Shannon, please open the call for questions.

接下來，我們將開始電話會議的問答部分。香農，請開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Brian McNamara, Canaccord Genuity.

（操作員指示）Brian McNamara，Canaccord Genuity。

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. First, I was wondering if you guys could break out organic growth in Q4 by price and volume or just give a kind of a rough range.

大家早安。感謝您回答這些問題。首先，我想知道你們是否可以按價格和數量列出第四季度的有機增長，或者只是給出一個粗略的範圍。

Yeah, I think what we would tell you there when you think about price for the whole business, it was pretty similar to what we saw for the full year, Brian, so just over down 1% and then obviously, the volumes or the offset of the remainder of the arithmetic there.

是的，我想當您考慮整個業務的價格時，我們會告訴您，它與我們全年看到的價格非常相似，布萊恩，所以只下降了 1%，然後顯然，交易量或剩餘算術的抵消。

Got it. And then secondly, I appreciate all the color on RDS. I guess, why should MinuteKey 3.5 drive sustainable growth in RDS kind of outside this kind of maybe [1 times] uplift we might see this year? You still have the existing home sales headwind and the like, just it's a question we consistently get from investors.

知道了。其次，我很欣賞 RDS 上的所有顏色。我想，為什麼 MinuteKey 3.5 能夠推動 RDS 的永續成長，超越我們今年可能看到的這種 [1 倍] 的成長？現有的房屋銷售仍面臨阻力等，這只是我們不斷從投資者那裡得到的問題。

Yeah, Brian, good morning. Great question. What we're really excited about is what it opens up, as I shared briefly and we've talked about in the past, we really believe that expanding beyond home and office, what's in the machine, plus the (inaudible), auto fobs, transponders really opens up some new unique opportunities for us, so we're excited.

是的，布萊恩，早安。好問題。我們真正興奮的是它所開闢的內容，正如我簡要分享的以及我們過去討論過的，我們真的相信，除了家庭和辦公室之外，機器中的東西，加上（聽不清），自動遙控器，應答器確實為我們開闢了一些新的獨特機會，所以我們很興奮。

We've seen, as I mentioned, some nice healthy lift, again, some nice traction with the customers. So we just believe it's a better solution in the interface. And the fact that we're able to help the stores be more efficient with their customers is really just -- is starting to get some nice traction. So we believe it is different, and we've seen some nice lift for the machines we have in the market.

正如我所提到的，我們已經看到了一些良好的健康成長，並且再次看到了對客戶的良好吸引力。所以我們只是相信這是一個更好的介面解決方案。事實上，我們能夠幫助商店更有效地為客戶服務，這確實開始獲得一些良好的發展勢頭。因此我們相信它是不同的，我們已經看到市場上的機器獲得了一些不錯的提升。

Yeah, the only thing I would add to that, Brian, I mean, if you think about RDS, it's no different than the rest of our business and how we're thinking about the future. JMA said in his prepared remarks, we're not going to predict when housing returns, when interest rates turn, but we're confident that happens, again, pick a time frame in the next 6 months, 18 months, 24 months, and we're really setting our business up to take advantage of those tailwinds.

是的，布萊恩，我唯一想補充的是，如果你想想 RDS，它與我們的其他業務以及我們對未來的看法沒有什麼不同。JMA 在其準備好的發言中表示，我們不會預測住房何時回歸、利率何時轉變，但我們有信心這會發生，再次，選擇未來 6 個月、18 個月、24 個月內的一個時間範圍，我們確實在為我們的業務做好準備，以利用這些順風。

It's consistent with what we're hearing from our large customers, quite frankly, from all of our customers. And we're going to be ready, and RDS is no different. We're putting in a better machine with more capabilities that are not only our customers but our consumers love. And when that turns, not only do you have a better machine that's going to generate growth force, but you're also going to have a tailwind. Again, not going to predict when that is, but I think it's in the next several years.

這與我們從大客戶，坦白說，從所有客戶那裡聽到的消息一致。我們會做好準備，RDS 也不例外。我們正在引進一款性能更強大、更優質的機器，不僅我們的客戶喜歡，而且我們的消費者也喜歡。當這種情況發生時，你不僅會擁有一台能夠產生成長力量的更好的機器，而且還會擁有順風。再次強調，我無法預測具體時間，但我認為會在未來幾年內。

Great. And just quickly on your gross margin assumptions for the year, I remember last May you guys negotiated some pretty favorable container rates. I think, at the time, it was like 4x the spot rate. I think that rate is currently like -- I think the spot is like 2x that rate right now. I'm just curious like how your folks think about container rates as it's captured into your gross margin assumptions.

偉大的。關於你們今年的毛利率假設，我記得去年五月你們協商了一些相當優惠的貨櫃運價。我認為，當時，它大約是現貨匯率的 4 倍。我認為該利率目前是——我認為現貨利率目前是該利率的兩倍。我只是好奇，你們的員工如何看待貨櫃費率，因為它被納入了你們的毛利率假設中。

Yeah, I mean for us, Brian, yeah, we did have a -- team did a great job getting good contract rates for the contract that's going to end in April of this year. We actually feel very good about where we're positioned. We will take an increase -- two things: one is for 2025, really limited impact to the time it turns to the P&L; plus that, we have a really nice, I'll say, flow of goods because we're heavier earlier in the year than later in the year, so we are a preferred, I'll say, use, if you will, or customer of these carriers.

是的，布萊恩，對我們來說，是的，我們確實有一個——團隊在為今年 4 月到期的合約爭取到良好的合約費率方面做得很好。事實上，我們對自己的定位感到非常滿意。我們將增加－兩件事：一是針對 2025 年，對轉化為損益表的時間的影響確實有限；另外，我們的貨物流通非常好，因為我們年初的貨物量比年末更大，所以如果你願意的話，我們是這些承運商的首選，或者說客戶。

So between those two pieces, we still feel confident we're going to have increases, which we're factoring into our strategy for this year, but on the lower end of our original range. So we feel good about where our contracts will be placed for 2025.

因此，在這兩部分之間，我們仍然有信心實現成長，這也是我們今年策略中的一個重要因素，但成長幅度將處於我們原始範圍的低端。因此，我們對 2025 年的合約安排感到很滿意。

Awesome. Thanks a lot, guys. Appreciate it.

驚人的。非常感謝大家。非常感謝。

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞安·默克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

Thanks for the questions. Just want to hear about trends through the fourth quarter, if you saw a bit of a slowdown in December, and then how is that tracking so far in one queue? Is it kind of stable? Or are you seeing any kind of lift?

感謝您的提問。只是想了解第四季度的趨勢，如果您發現 12 月有所放緩，那麼到目前為止，在一個隊列中追蹤情況如何？它穩定嗎？或者你看到任何形式的升力了嗎？

Yeah, I think for -- Q4 was interesting to us. I mean, December is always a tough month for us and everybody you cover, Ryan, so I don't know that it was that different, if you will, than November or October. It was definitely pressured. We've seen a stabilization in Q1 of this year. I'll just say that the trend that we expected coming out of Q4 is actually playing true in Q1. I'm just going to leave it at that at this point.

是的，我認為第四季對我們來說很有趣。我的意思是，對於我們以及你報道的每個人來說，十二月總是一個艱難的月份，瑞安，所以我不知道它與十一月或十月有什麼不同，如果你願意的話。這絕對是有壓力的。我們看到今年第一季情勢趨於穩定。我只想說，我們預期的第四季度的趨勢實際上在第一季得到了證實。我現在就到此為止了。

Got it. Okay. It's helpful. And then I want to ask about tariffs, and I think there's been a few developments, obviously. Just talk about maybe how you handle tariffs in '09, and then will this time be any different? And it doesn't sound like you would put anything in the guidance for that. I just want to clarify that.

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後我想問一下關稅問題，我認為顯然已經取得了一些進展。不妨談談您在 2009 年如何處理關稅問題，那麼這次會有什麼不同嗎？聽起來你不會在指導中加入任何內容。我只是想澄清這一點。

Yeah, so it is a situation that we talk, unfortunately, way too frequently about, Ryan. It is developing by the minute almost. I mean, we were on the phone talking about it 6:45 this morning. It is something that we -- we're going to manage it the same way we did in 2018. So for us, we managed in 2018. We're priced the dollar for dollar. Our teams did a great job executing with our retail partners. It's transactional. And as you know, we've done a nice job managing inflation and dealing with the price challenges that come out of, whether it's the freight that went up and down, tariffs, and the overall inflation pressure.

是的，不幸的是，我們談論這種情況太頻繁了，瑞安。它幾乎每分鐘都在發展。我的意思是，我們今天早上 6:45 在電話裡討論這件事。我們將以與 2018 年相同的方式處理此事。所以對我們來說，我們在 2018 年取得了成功。我們的定價是一美元一美元的。我們的團隊與零售合作夥伴的合作非常出色。這是交易性的。正如你們所知，我們在控制通膨和應對由此產生的價格挑戰方面做得很好，無論是運費的漲跌、關稅還是整體通膨壓力。

So we feel like we've got the tools in place to manage it. We don't know where this one's going to land right now, so our teams are ready. We've got -- we meet on it very regularly. And when we have definition and clarity around it, we'll execute.

因此我們覺得我們已經擁有了管理它的工具。我們現在不知道它會落在哪裡，所以我們的團隊已經準備好了。我們——我們經常就此舉行會議。當我們對它有了定義和清晰認識後，我們就會執行。

Ryan, one of the things that I would just say -- this is Doug. A lot of retailers have categories they've historically directly imported. And we think there's an opportunity there that we've not historically had because we've got multiple sources in multiple countries. And if you think about it from their perspective, they don't go deep on a lot of things that they directly import.

瑞安，我想說的一件事是──這是道格。許多零售商都有他們過去直接進口的品類。我們認為這是一個我們歷史上從未有過的機會，因為我們在多個國家擁有多個來源。如果你從他們的角度考慮，他們並沒有深入研究很多直接引進的東西。

So I think you're going to see with this time around some opportunities for us to pick up categories that we can add to the truck, and they can get it out of their distribution center, and we can go to a different country for them if they like. But they're just not that deep in those kinds of relationships, and we are. So I think there's going to be a bit of an opportunity to go around for us that we didn't have last time.

所以我認為，這次你會看到一些機會，我們可以選擇可以添加到卡車上的類別，他們可以將其從配送中心運出，如果他們願意，我們可以為他們前往不同的國家。但他們之間的這種關係並沒有那麼深，而我們卻很深。因此我認為我們將獲得一些上次所沒有的機會。

Yeah, that's very interesting, Doug. Thanks for mentioning that. I'll pass it on. Thanks.

是的，這很有趣，道格。謝謝你提到這一點。我會傳達的。謝謝。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬修·布萊（Matthew Bouley）。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. Wanted to ask back on RDS growth in 2025. You guys were talking about that business returning to growth. Clearly, coming up on much easier comparisons, I think the business was really almost close to flat by Q4. So should you be sort of -- the expectation that you'd be turning positive on RDS as soon as Q1? Or is it going to kind of ramp through the year as you continue to ramp MinuteKey 3.5? And also if you could add some color on the impact of the attrition that you mentioned. Thank you.

大家早安。感謝您回答這些問題。想詢問 2025 年 RDS 的成長情況。你們正在談論業務恢復成長。顯然，透過更簡單的比較，我認為到第四季度業務實際上幾乎持平。那麼您是否應該期望在第一季就對 RDS 產生正面影響？或者隨著您繼續推進 MinuteKey 3.5 的發展，這一趨勢是否會在全年逐漸加快？另外，如果您可以補充說明您提到的人員流失的影響。謝謝。

Maybe I'll start with the rate. And yeah, the short answer is that we do believe, Matt, that we will return to growth even in the first quarter. Again, not -- we would -- I would tell you not what we expect to see in a year or two where we believe we get back to historic growth levels, which are kind of low double digits, but we would expect to be low singles to maybe even mid-single-digit growth in the business because primarily of the rollout of what we're doing with 3.5 with our major customers.

也許我應該從利率開始。是的，簡而言之，馬特，我們確實相信，即使在第一季度，我們也會恢復成長。再說一次，我們不會——我們會——我會告訴你，我們預計在一兩年內我們不會恢復到歷史增長水平，也就是低兩位數的增長，但我們預計業務將實現低個位數甚至中等個位數的增長，這主要是因為我們與主要客戶合作推出了 3.5 版。

Yeah, and as far as on the attrition piece of it, we actually -- as framed, we've got alignment with our top customers on what we're going to do this year. There is a customer in our mix where we've actually come to alignment on a better profile for us and candidly probably for maybe for them as well. But we've got a good path forward with them that will add a little bit of negative pressure for the year.

是的，就人員流失而言，我們實際上 - 按照框架，我們已經與我們的頂級客戶就今年要做的事情達成了共識。在我們的客戶組合中，有一位客戶，我們實際上已經就對我們更有利的概況達成了一致，坦率地說，可能對他們來說也是如此。但我們與他們已經找到了一條良好的前進之路，這將給今年帶來一些負面壓力。

We still feel confident that with what actions we have in place, the 3.5 rollout, which is going well, and some other initiatives that we have going on that will more than cover that up -- that pressure up throughout the year. So that's about as far as I want to go on that topic.

我們仍然相信，透過我們已採取的行動，進展順利的 3.5 推廣以及我們正在進行的一些其他舉措，這些舉措將足以彌補全年的壓力。關於這個話題我想說的就這麼多。

Yeah, I guess just to add a little there, when you think about what we're doing around capital -- and look, our capital is going to be up this year because of the rollouts at our major customers with 3.5, but if you think about those key customers that are not those major customers, we're not going to build machines and put them into situations where the payback doesn't make sense for us or the return on invested capital isn't at least at or above where the company is.

是的，我想補充一點，當你考慮我們在資本方面所做的事情時——你看，今年我們的資本將會增加，因為我們向 3.5 的主要客戶推出了產品，但如果你考慮那些不是主要客戶的關鍵客戶，我們不會製造機器並將它們置於回報對我們來說沒有意義或投資資本回報率至少不等於或高於公司水平的境地。

And so again, we feel really good about building machines for our major customers where that return is quick and is above, I'll call it, the current corporate average. If it's not, we have to have some tough conversations, and we've been having this.

因此，我們非常高興能為我們的主要客戶製造機器，因為回報很快，而且高於目前的企業平均水平。如果不是，我們就必須進行一些艱難的對話，而且我們也一直在進行這樣的對話。

Got it. Okay, thank you for that great color. Secondly, I wanted to touch on price again. I think you said you were still going to be comping down a point on price in the first half, but you expect to be neutral for the year. So I guess the implication, would you be expecting to be positive on price in the second half? Does that have anything to do with kind of matching tariffs, dollar for dollar, as you mentioned? Or just -- is that a fair statement that you'd be expecting positive price and sort of what drives that? Thank you.

知道了。好的，謝謝你這麼漂亮的顏色。其次，我想再談價格問題。我想您說過您仍會在上半年降低價格，但您預計全年價格將保持中立。所以我猜這意味著您是否預計下半年價格會上漲？這和您提到的一美元一美元的匹配關稅有關係嗎？或者只是——這是一個公平的說法，即您預期價格為正數，並且是什麼推動了這一趨勢？謝謝。

Yeah, it's an astute question. And that's why we kind of phrased it that way. Our expectation would be that we would be taking price in strategic categories in the second half of the year. And what I will tell you is that it's not related to tariff. Again, if you go back to my prepared remarks, we talked a lot about all of the areas in our business where we're seeing inflation that's kind of across the board. We believe not only with us but with our customers as well as our competitors. And so, it is our expectation that we're going to bring some price to the market in 2025 regardless of what happens with tariffs.

是的，這是一個敏銳的問題。這就是我們這樣表述的原因。我們的預期是，我們將在今年下半年對策略類別進行定價。我要告訴你的是，這跟關稅無關。再說一次，如果你回顧我準備好的發言，我們談論了很多我們業務中所有出現通貨膨脹的領域。我們不僅相信自己，也相信我們的客戶和競爭對手。因此，無論關稅如何變化，我們都有望在 2025 年為市場帶來一定的價格。

Got it. Okay, thanks guys. Good luck.

知道了。好的，謝謝大家。祝你好運。

Lee Jagoda, CJS Securities.

Lee Jagoda，CJS 證券。

Hi, this is [Will] on for Lee. How should we think about the Canadian business both in terms of current trends in industrial production and how that can impact volumes as well as anything related to tariffs and trade war impacts? Thank you.

大家好，我是李的[威爾]。我們該如何看待加拿大的業務？一方面是工業生產的當前趨勢，另一方面是其對產量的影響，以及與關稅和貿易戰影響相關的任何因素？謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Will. So yeah, Canada is certainly seeing some market pressures. We actually have some nice new business wins in Canada that's all setting some of that pressure. So from our perspective, the Canadian markets, which had a top 2024, we're running it well. President runs --that's Scott right up there in Canada doing a nice job with his team. And we're aligned with our customers, so we have some nice new business wins to offset some of the market pressure we have out there.

是的。謝謝，威爾。所以，加拿大確實面臨一些市場壓力。事實上，我們在加拿大取得了一些不錯的新業務，這都帶來了一些壓力。因此，從我們的角度來看，加拿大市場在 2024 年達到頂峰，我們的運作情況良好。總統競選——斯科特就在加拿大與他的團隊一起出色地完成了工作。我們與客戶保持一致，因此我們獲得了一些不錯的新業務，以抵消我們面臨的部分市場壓力。

On the industrial side, we continue to see pressure there, so that portion of the business, which we don't really break out and specify numbers on, but we've seen some pressure there. We've, I'll say, rebuilt that business over the last several years, and we feel like we've got a good path forward. So Canada will see some pressure, but we feel confident our results overall.

在工業方面，我們繼續看到壓力，因此對於該部分業務，我們並沒有真正細分和具體說明數字，但我們已經看到了一些壓力。我想說，我們在過去幾年裡重建了這項業務，我們覺得我們已經找到了一條好的前進道路。因此加拿大會面臨一些壓力，但我們對整體結果充滿信心。

Yeah, the only thing, I think, what I would add there is, the one thing that we've said continuously for the last several years is the one thing we don't control is the market, and we're not going to be able to. When you think about our Canadian team and what they've done, they've done a really good job of making sure that we keep the profitability in that business at an appropriate level, even in the face of pretty significant headwinds from the market, bigger than we're seeing in the US or have seen in the US.

是的，我認為我唯一想補充的是，過去幾年我們一直在說的一件事是，我們無法控制的市場，我們也無法控制。當你想到我們的加拿大團隊和他們所做的事情時，你會發現他們做得非常好，確保我們將該業務的盈利能力保持在適當的水平，即使面臨來自市場的相當大的阻力，比我們在美國看到的或曾經在美國看到的要大。

So we're confident, again, as we think about 2025 that we've got the right people in place, the right team in Canada, and they're going to perform from a profitability perspective regardless of what happens with the markets. Again, we're going to set the Canadian business up just like the US business. So when that economy does turn, we can take full advantage of it. And again, we're highly confident the team we have there today to do that.

因此，當我們展望 2025 年時，我們再次充滿信心，我們已經擁有合適的人才，在加拿大擁有合適的團隊，無論市場發生什麼，他們都將從盈利角度表現出色。再次強調，我們將像美國業務一樣建立加拿大業務。因此，當經濟確實復甦時，我們可以充分利用它。再次強調，我們對今天的團隊能夠做到這一點非常有信心。

That's very helpful, thank you.

這非常有幫助，謝謝。

Brian Butler, Stifel.

布萊恩·巴特勒（Brian Butler），Stifel。

Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions.

早安.感謝您回答這些問題。

good morning, Brian.

早安，布萊恩。

First one, just on the RDS, maybe to just kind of just level set everybody, when you think about the 3.5 rollout by the end of 2026, maybe as we restructure this as the top three customers, where do we stand now and how do we think about by the end of '25 and then being completed in '26? How does that rollout kind of break out between the years?

首先，僅在 RDS 上，也許只是為了讓每個人都達到一個水平，當您考慮在 2026 年底推出 3.5 時，也許當我們將其重組為前三大客戶時，我們現在處於什麼位置，我們如何考慮在 25 年底之前實現，然後在 26 年完成？這些年來，這項措施的推出進展如何？

Yeah, I mean, so it is heavily -- more heavily indexed to '26. I mean, we do start putting machines in place back half of this year at a higher clip overall when you aggregate them together, Brian. So we feel like a nice steady flow of the machines. We didn't finish last year in good shape as far as actually delivering the number of machines that we put into the marketplace. So from a 3.5 perspective, we felt like we finished the year a bit ahead of where we expected to.

是的，我的意思是，它與 26 年的指數關係更為密切。我的意思是，我們確實在今年上半年開始以更高的速度安裝機器，當你把它們組合在一起時，整體上的速度會更高，布萊恩。因此，我們感覺機器的運作非常平穩。就實際交付到市場的機器數量而言，我們去年的業績並不理想。因此，從 3.5 的角度來看，我們覺得今年的成績比我們預期的要提早一些。

Lowe's was well on track with where we wanted to be, and then we we're going to continue to see that roll out in 2025 where we'll finish up those machines in '25 and '26, and we'll do the same thing at The Home Depot. We don't want to really get too much -- too far to the granularity beyond that, Brian, but we feel good about that ramp. It'll be pretty steady '25 into '26 is the way I'd be thinking about it.

勞氏 (Lowe's) 已經順利實現了我們的目標，我們將在 2025 年繼續推進這一計劃，在 2025 年和 2026 年完成這些機器的製造，我們也會在 The Home Depot 做同樣的事情。我們不想真的得到太多 - 超出這個範圍太遠，布萊恩，但我們對這個坡道感覺很好。我認為從 25 年到 26 年它會相當穩定。

Okay, that's helpful. And then on the new business, the 2.5% growth kind of looking into the 25%, can you give some color between where that comes from? Is that more heavily weighted towards hardware or protective or RDS kind of fitting in there with the rollout?

好的，這很有幫助。然後就新業務而言，2.5% 的成長率與 25% 的成長率類似，您能否解釋一下這個成長率的來源？在推出時，這是否更側重於硬體或保護或 RDS 類型？

Yeah, I mean, the rollout a piece of it, certainly. But the heavier piece of that is the (inaudible) side of the hardware side of the business, Brian. We have some really exciting new products where we're actually launching some patented products in concrete screws with one of our largest customers. We're excited about that. We also have structural screws and high-performance construction fastener that we'll be rolling out so actually some nice new business in what we call CFP. So we're excited about that piece of it.

是的，我的意思是，推出其中一部分，當然。但其中更重要的部分是業務的硬體方面（聽不清楚），布萊恩。我們有一些非常令人興奮的新產品，實際上我們正在與我們最大的客戶之一一起推出一些混凝土螺絲專利產品。我們對此感到很興奮。我們還將推出結構螺絲和高性能建築緊固件，因此我們所謂的 CFP 實際上帶來了一些不錯的新業務。因此我們對這部分內容感到很興奮。

We got work here on the protective slot side of the business. We've got some new rollout there that should get some nice traction. We got some good customer wins. And we're excited about growth with our major customers in a number of categories plus, as you've heard us talk about in the past, the rope and chain win with Ace is in full flow in 2025. So we'll continue to look to build on that.

我們在這裡從事保護槽方面的業務。我們在那裡推出了一些新產品，應該會獲得不錯的迴響。我們贏得了一些很好的客戶。我們很高興看到我們的主要客戶在多個類別中都取得了增長，而且，正如您過去聽到我們談論的那樣，我們與 Ace 合作的繩索和鏈條勝利將在 2025 年全面展開。因此，我們將繼續尋求在此基礎上進一步發展。

And then some things that we're not ready to share in detail, but we got some nice traction around the Intex business and some new opportunities with major customers there. So it is actually across the board, Brian. Pretty healthy mix that our sales team is out there driving, and we're pretty excited about '25.

有些事情我們還沒有準備好詳細分享，但我們在 Intex 業務方面取得了一些良好的進展，並且與那裡的主要客戶獲得了一些新的機會。所以這實際上是全面的，布萊恩。我們的銷售團隊正在推動相當健康的組合，我們對 25 年感到非常興奮。

Okay, great. And if I can get one last one, just on that the acquisition environment, I mean, '25, is that set up now maybe more attractive being the market being as weak as it has that you have more sellers out there and more opportunity? Or how are you looking at acquisitions for '25?

好的，太好了。如果我可以問最後一個問題，關於收購環境，我的意思是，'25，現在的設置是否更有吸引力，因為市場已經很疲軟，有更多的賣家和更多的機會？或者您如何看待 25 年的收購？

Yeah, we're excited about the market. I'd say -- I don't know that the market's changed that dynamically, Brian. I'll ask Rocky to add on or Doug if I missed anything, but I would say right now, we've got more irons in the fire now than we did last time we spoke. We are actually pretty excited about having a couple of nice, interesting deals in front of us that we think would be great compliment to Hillman. And many of the comments you heard Doug and me say on this call, previous calls, where they would actually fit into our culture product segments and adjacency with the customer. So we're pretty excited about where we are today. I just don't know the environment's changed dramatically, but we're looking at deals, and we'll certainly keep you posted as we have more to share.

是的，我們對市場感到興奮。我想說——我不知道市場發生瞭如此劇烈的變化，布萊恩。如果我遺漏了什麼，我會請 Rocky 補充，或者請 Doug 補充，但我想說現在，我們有更多的事情要做，比我們上次談話時要多。事實上，我們很高興能獲得幾項不錯的、有趣的交易，我們認為這些交易將對希爾曼產生很大的幫助。大家在這次電話會議和之前的電話會議中聽到道格和我提出的許多意見，其實都符合我們的文化產品細分市場以及與客戶的貼近度。因此，我們對目前的狀況感到非常興奮。我只是不知道環境發生了巨大的變化，但我們正在尋找交易，並且我們一定會隨時向您通報更多資訊。

Great, thanks for taking my.

太好了，謝謝你接受我的。

Great, thanks for taking my questions.

太好了，謝謝你回答我的問題。

Dave Manthey, Baird.

戴夫·曼西，貝爾德。

Yeah, thank you. Most of my questions have been answered here, but as we recalibrate our thoughts on RDS, what are the implications for longer term EBITDA margin expectations? At the IPO, I think you were signaling 20%-plus EBITA margin target with much of that being driven by RDS.

是的，謝謝。我的大部分問題都在這裡得到了解答，但是當我們重新調整對 RDS 的想法時，這對長期 EBITDA 利潤率預期有何影響？在 IPO 時，我認為您暗示 EBITA 利潤率目標將達到 20% 以上，其中很大一部分是由 RDS 推動的。

Yeah, I think, Dave, as you think about RDS, our goal is to maintain the margin rate that we have in the business, so call it, 32%, 33%, 34% EBITDA rate. The nice thing about it is, when you think about our core business, we've done a nice job expanding that in the HPS business, the EBITDA rate. I think our goal over the next several years would be to hang on to the rate in HPS, as you've heard us talk about there, over a three- to five-year period, it's probably like only 1% expansion. And that's really leveraging the fixed cost that we have in the business. And then what you do is you get the nice mix up because of RDS back to growth.

是的，戴夫，我認為，當你考慮 RDS 時，我們的目標是維持我們業務中的利潤率，也就是 32%、33%、34% 的 EBITDA 率。令人欣慰的是，當您考慮我們的核心業務時，我們在 HPS 業務和 EBITDA 率的擴展方面做得很好。我認為我們未來幾年的目標是保持 HPS 的利率，正如您聽到我們談論的那樣，在三到五年內，它可能只會擴張 1%。這實際上充分利用了我們業務中的固定成本。然後您要做的就是獲得良好的混合效果，因為 RDS 恢復了成長。

We've had this nice margin expansion in the whole business over the last couple of years with RDS being depressed, and so that getting that business back to growth is really important for us to not only grow EBITDA but also gross margins over the longer term. So again, we feel really confident that with that business back to growth -- I'm not going to predict the year, but a 20% EBITDA rate is not out of the question when you think about that mix shift.

在過去幾年裡，由於 RDS 業務低迷，我們整個業務的利潤率都得到了良好的擴大，因此讓該業務恢復成長對我們來說非常重要，不僅可以提高 EBITDA，還可以提高長期毛利率。因此，我們再次確信，隨著業務恢復成長——我不會預測今年的情況，但當你考慮到這種組合轉變時，20% 的 EBITDA 率並非不可能。

And then ultimately, it sounds like you're focused on returns on capital anyway, but based on your conversation earlier, we should assume that you would expect returns on capital to drift up gradually over time?

最後，聽起來您似乎一直在關注的是資本回報率，但根據您先前的對話，我們應該假設您預期資本回報率會隨著時間的推移而逐漸上升？

Yeah, well, obviously when -- if we think about -- and you see in our proxy, we'll have some goals around what returns on invested capital are in the business. And we would expect that we expand those every year, at least for the next three to five, at a minimum. Obviously, we -- you're looking on -- that's pretty tough from a modeling perspective, but where we're coming from and where we're going, we believe there's nice expansion in ROIC over the next several years.

是的，顯然，如果我們考慮一下，並且你在我們的代理商中看到，我們會對業務中投資資本的回報率有一些目標。我們預計，至少在接下來的三到五年內，我們每年都會擴大這些範圍。顯然，您看到的是，從建模角度來看，這相當困難，但從我們的出發點和目標來看，我們相信，未來幾年 ROIC 將實現良好的擴張。

Sounds good. Thank you.

聽起來不錯。謝謝。

Reuben Garner, Benchmark.

魯本·加納，基準。

Thank you. Good morning, guys. Rocky, you mentioned in your outlook for this year, about 2.5 points of new business kind of baked into the midpoint, I believe. How much of that do you guys already have in hand from new shelf space that you sort of want over the last six months or so?

謝謝。大家早安。洛基，您在對今年的展望中提到，我認為大約有 2.5 個百分點的新業務已經融入中點。在過去六個月左右的時間裡，你們手上有多少想要的新貨架空間？

Yeah, I think the way to look at it, Rueben, is basically, all of that is committed. The challenge that we've seen, I would say, over the last couple years, is what's the replan associated with that business because of the market volumes. And so I -- look, we would tell you, as we sit today, we're confident that not only can we hit that, call it, 2.5%, but we can be above that.

是的，我認為看待這個問題的方式，Rueben，基本上，所有這些都是承諾。我想說，過去幾年我們所面臨的挑戰是，由於市場規模龐大，該業務相關的重新規劃是什麼。因此，我——你看，我們可以告訴你們，今天我們坐在一起，我們有信心，我們不僅可以達到這個目標，也就是 2.5%，而且可以超過這個目標。

The risk to it is just what happens to market volumes in those categories as we load them in. If they stay where they are or they improve, we could be -- we will be at the high end or could be even above that kind of normal 2% to 3% range, still feel confident that the markets kind of stay where they are or soften a bit that we'll be at 2.5%. But that's the trick to our business. We control new business wins. We control price to an extent. We can control M&A, but it's really, really hard for us to control the market.

其風險在於，當我們將這些類別納入其中時，其市場容量會發生什麼變化。如果它們保持現狀或有所改善，我們可能會——我們將處於高端，甚至可能高於正常的 2% 至 3% 的範圍，仍然有信心市場將保持現狀或略有疲軟，我們將達到 2.5%。但這正是我們做生意的訣竅。我們掌控新業務的成功。我們在一定程度上控制價格。我們可以控制併購，但控制市場卻非常非常困難。

So you can see, we predicted the markets this year will be down one at the midpoint of our guidance, and we'll see what happens throughout the year because we just don't control footsteps that our big customers.

所以你可以看到，我們預測今年的市場將比我們的指導中點下跌一個，我們將看看全年會發生什麼，因為我們無法控制大客戶的腳步。

Got it. And then a two-part question on kind of, I guess, risks is tied to pricing and tariffs. So in the past, and it's been a couple few years since you had to put pricing through, there were some costs associated with some of your customers and changing the stickers out of the store. Can you remind us how much your business that affects? How much that would cost? And then anything you guys or your customers are doing from an inventory standpoint? You mentioned Q1 cash flow being impacted, but that was a seasonal comment. Like, are you guys building inventory in anticipation of potential tariff risks or customers doing anything like that? Just big picture on tariffs. Thank you.

知道了。然後，我想，關於風險的兩部分問題與定價和關稅有關。因此，在過去，距離您開始定價已經有好幾年了，有些成本與您的一些客戶以及更換商店貼紙有關。您能否提醒我們這對您的業務有多大影響？那要花多少錢？那麼從庫存角度來看，你們或你們的客戶做了什麼？您提到第一季現金流受到影響，但這只是季節性評論。例如，你們是否會為了應對潛在的關稅風險或客戶採取類似行動而建立庫存？僅介紹關稅概況。謝謝。

So I'll let Rocky add on here. But Rueben, from a cost perspective, it's $1 million to $2 million depending on how many labels we put in the marketplace. So I think $1.5 million to $2 million will be -- that's just for the traditional hardware channel and not every location. To answer that kind of that question there, so from an overall perspective, we'll get that piece of it, as far as the (technical difficulty).

所以我讓 Rocky 在這裡補充。但 Rueben，從成本角度來看，這取決於我們在市場上投放的標籤數量，成本在 100 萬美元到 200 萬美元之間。所以我認為 150 萬到 200 萬美元將是——這只是針對傳統硬體管道，而不是每個地點。為了回答這個問題，從整體角度來看，我們會得到這部分內容，就（技術難度）。

Thank you. This concludes the Q&A portion of today's call. I would like to turn the call back over to JMA for closing comments.

謝謝。今天電話會議的問答部分到此結束。我想將電話轉回 JMA 以徵求最後意見。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Again, I would like to thank our customers, vendors, suppliers, and importantly, the hardworking Hillman team for their contributions. We look forward to updating you again in the near future. Thanks, and have a great day. Shannon, you may now disconnect.

感謝大家今天早上加入我們。再次，我要感謝我們的客戶、供應商、供貨商，以及更重要的是，感謝辛勤工作的 Hillman 團隊所做的貢獻。我們期待在不久的將來再次向您提供最新消息。謝謝，祝您有愉快的一天。香農，你現在可以斷開連結了。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。