Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the second quarter 2025 results presentation for Hillman Solutions Corp. My name is Towanda, and I will be your conference call operator today. Before we begin, I would like to remind our listeners that today's presentation is being recorded and simultaneously webcast. The company's earnings release presentation and 10-Q were issued this morning. These documents and a replay of today's presentation can be accessed on the Hillman's Investor Relations website at ir.hillmangroup.com.

早安，歡迎參加 Hillman Solutions Corp 2025 年第二季業績報告會。我叫 Towanda，今天將擔任您的電話會議接線生。在我們開始之前，我想提醒我們的聽眾，今天的演講正在錄製並同時進行網路直播。該公司的收益發布報告和 10-Q 已於今天上午發布。這些文件和今天示範的重播可以在 Hillman 投資者關係網站 ir.hillmangroup.com 上查閱。

I would now like to turn the call over to Michael Koehler with Hillman.

現在我想將電話轉給希爾曼的邁克爾·科勒。

Thank you, Towanda. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm Michael Koehler, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Joining me on today's call are Hillman's President and Chief Executive Officer, Jon Michael Adinolfi, or JMA, as we call him; and Hillman's Chief Financial Officer, Rocky Kraft. Before we get into today's call, I would like to remind our audience that certain statements made today may be considered forward-looking and are subject to the safe harbor provisions of applicable securities laws.

謝謝你，托旺達。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。我是麥可‧科勒 (Michael Koehler)，投資者關係與財務副總裁。參加今天電話會議的還有 Hillman 總裁兼執行長 Jon Michael Adinolfi（我們稱他為 JMA）以及 Hillman 財務長 Rocky Kraft。在我們開始今天的電話會議之前，我想提醒我們的聽眾，今天發表的某些聲明可能被視為前瞻性的，並受適用證券法的安全港條款的約束。

These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors, many of which are beyond the company's control and may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in such statements.

這些前瞻性陳述並非對未來績效的保證，並且受某些風險、不確定性、假設和其他因素的影響，其中許多因素超出了公司的控制範圍，並可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中的預測存在重大差異。

Some of those factors that could influence our results are contained in our periodic and annual reports filed with the SEC. For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties, please see slide 2 in our earnings call slide presentation, which is available on our website, ir.hillmangroup.com.

我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期和年度報告中包含了一些可能影響我們績效的因素。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們的收益電話會議幻燈片演示文稿中的第 2 張幻燈片，該演示文稿可在我們的網站 ir.hillmangroup.com 上找到。

In addition, on today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding our use of and reconciliations of these measures to our GAAP results are available in our earnings call slide presentation. JMA will begin today's call by providing some commentary on our strong second quarter results and then give an update on our guidance.

此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關我們對這些指標的使用以及與 GAAP 結果的調節信息，請參閱我們的收益電話會議幻燈片演示。JMA 將在今天的電話會議上首先對我們強勁的第二季業績發表一些評論，然後更新我們的指導意見。

Following JMA's comments, Rocky will give a more detailed walk through our financials and guidance before turning the call back over to JMA for some closing comments. Then we will open the call up for your questions. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jon Michael Adinolfi. JMA?

在 JMA 發表評論之後，Rocky 將更詳細地介紹我們的財務狀況和指導，然後將電話轉回給 JMA 進行一些結束評論。然後我們將開始回答你們的提問。現在我很高興將電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長 Jon Michael Adinolfi。JMA？

Thanks, Michael. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We executed well and took great care of our customers during the second quarter of 2025, driving strong results on both the top and bottom line. We are pleased with our results for the first half of the year and are positioned well for continued top and bottom line growth in the second half of the year. Let me take a moment to provide an update on some topics we discussed last quarter.

謝謝，麥可。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。2025 年第二季度，我們表現優異，並非常關心我們的客戶，從而實現了營業收入和利潤的強勁增長。我們對上半年的業績感到滿意，並為下半年繼續實現營收和利潤的成長做好了準備。請容許我花點時間來更新我們上個季度討論過的一些主題。

We told you that our business is well positioned to operate in any environment, and we delivered solid results during both quarters this year. We told you that we would cover tariff-related cost increases, and we have.

我們告訴過您，我們的業務在任何環境下都具備良好的營運條件，今年兩季我們都取得了穩健的業績。我們告訴過您，我們將承擔與關稅相關的成本增加，而我們確實這樣做了。

We told you that the resilience of Hillman's business should prove volumes to be better than our guide and they were. We told you that we would optimize the country of origin where we source our products with our dual faucet strategy, and we have. The Hillman team did a fantastic job during the quarter.

我們告訴過您，希爾曼業務的彈性應該證明其銷量比我們的預期要好，事實也確實如此。我們告訴過您，我們將透過雙水龍頭策略優化我們產品的原產國，我們確實這麼做了。希爾曼團隊在本季表現出色。

I am proud of how we work together to navigate this dynamic environment while not losing sight of our long-term goals. Based on our performance so far this year, the excellent job this team has done, we are raising the midpoint of both of our full year 2025 net sales and our full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance.

我為我們能夠共同努力應對這一動態環境同時又不忽視我們的長期目標而感到自豪。根據我們今年迄今的表現以及該團隊所做的出色工作，我們將提高 2025 年全年淨銷售額和 2025 年全年調整後 EBITDA 指引的中點。

We now expect our full year 2025 net sales to be between $1.535 billion to $1.575 billion, with a midpoint of $1.555 billion. The low end of our net sales guidance represents 4% growth over 2024, and the high end of our guidance represents 7% growth over 2024. As for our bottom line, we now expect our full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be between $265 million to $275 million with a midpoint of $270 million.

我們現在預計 2025 年全年淨銷售額將在 15.35 億美元至 15.75 億美元之間，中間值為 15.55 億美元。我們的淨銷售額預期下限代表 2024 年成長 4%，而預期上限代表 2024 年成長 7%。至於我們的底線，我們現在預計 2025 年全年調整後的 EBITDA 將在 2.65 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間，中間值為 2.7 億美元。

The low end of our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance represents 10% growth over 2024 and the high end of our guidance represents 14% growth over last year. Let me spend one minute on how we're thinking about 2026 based on what we know today. We expect full year 2026 net sales to grow in the high single to low double digits and adjusted EBITDA to grow in the low to mid-single digits, both in an environment where we are assuming market volumes are flat.

我們 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 預期的低端代表比 2024 年增長 10%，而預期的高端代表比去年增長 14%。請容許我花一點時間來談談，根據我們目前所了解的情況，我們對 2026 年有何看法。我們預計，2026 年全年淨銷售額將成長高個位數至低兩位數，調整後 EBITDA 將成長低個位數至中個位數，而我們假設市場容量將保持穩定。

Rollover price in our typical new business wins will drive our top line in 2026. Considering the tariff comp next year, we will remain focused on managing margins, operating efficiently and controlling costs. Rocky will share more details on our guidance and outlook for the remainder of the year in a bit.

我們典型的新業務勝利的展期價格將推動我們 2026 年的營業收入。考慮到明年的關稅補償，我們將繼續專注於管理利潤率、高效營運和控製成本。洛基稍後將分享有關我們對今年剩餘時間的指導和展望的更多細節。

Hillman has a long track record of performing through all kinds of economic environment since we were founded over 60 years ago. Historically, our consistent growth and solid performance has been driven by our competitive moat, steady demand for our products tied to everyday repair and maintenance projects and great long-term relationships with our customers.

希爾曼自 60 多年前成立以來，在各種經濟環境下都擁有良好的業績記錄。從歷史上看，我們持續的成長和穩健的業績得益於我們的競爭優勢、與日常維修和保養項目相關的產品的穩定需求以及與客戶的長期良好關係。

Hillman's value-added moat, which consists of over 1,200 sales and service reps in our customer stores, direct-to-store delivery capability, category management and deeply integrated retail partnerships unlike any company in our space.

Hillman 的增值護城河包括我們客戶商店中的 1,200 多名銷售和服務代表、直接送貨到店的能力、品類管理以及與我們領域內任何公司都不同的深度整合的零售合作夥伴關係。

Today, we are successfully managing the current tariff environment while not losing sight of taking great care of our customers, winning new business and consistently striving to make our operations more efficient.

今天，我們成功地管理了當前的關稅環境，同時沒有忽視對客戶的關懷、贏得新業務以及不斷努力提高我們的營運效率。

We continue to deliver orders on time and in full to our customers, which has been demonstrated by our excellent fill rates for the first half of the year. From a supply chain and operations standpoint, we continue to execute our dual faucet strategy. We've made progress reducing our exposure to suppliers based in China, where we are confident that we can end 2025 with the ability to source approximately 20% of our products from China.

我們繼續按時、按量向客戶交付訂單，這已由我們上半年出色的履行率所證明。從供應鏈和營運的角度來看，我們繼續執行雙水龍頭策略。我們在減少對中國供應商的依賴方面取得了進展，我們有信心到 2025 年底，我們能夠從中國採購約 20% 的產品。

This compares to 2018 when we sourced nearly 50% of our products from China. The dual faucet strategy is the concept of buying product not only for multiple suppliers, which has always been our strategy, but from multiple suppliers in multiple countries.

相較之下，2018年我們近50%的產品來自中國。雙水龍頭策略的概念是，我們不僅從多個供應商購買產品（這一直是我們的策略），而且還從多個國家的多個供應商購買產品。

We know tariffs can change the market quickly. We are prepared for this and have built a flexible supply chain that allows us to deliver quality products at the best overall value for our customers. We are confidently navigating the tariff situation and executing our plan to set Hillman up for long-term success with our customers and long-term growth.

我們知道關稅可以迅速改變市場。我們對此做好了準備，並建立了靈活的供應鏈，使我們能夠為客戶提供具有最佳整體價值的優質產品。我們有信心應對關稅情況並執行我們的計劃，以使希爾曼與我們的客戶一起取得長期成功並實現長期成長。

Now let's turn our results to our results for the second quarter. Net sales in the second quarter of 2025 totalled $402.8 million, which increased 6.2% versus the second quarter of last year. Driving our top line growth was a 4-point increase from Intex, which we acquired in 2024, 2 points from new business wins and 2 points from price. These were partially offset by a 2-point headwind for market volumes.

現在讓我們來看看第二季的業績。2025 年第二季淨銷售額總計 4.028 億美元，較去年第二季成長 6.2%。推動我們營收成長的因素包括我們於 2024 年收購的 Intex 帶來的 4 個百分點的成長、新業務的勝利帶來的 2 個百分點以及價格帶來的 2 個百分點。但市場交易量下降 2 個百分點，部分抵銷了這項影響。

For the quarter, adjusted EBITDA increased 10.1% to $75.2 million compared to $68.4 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA margins improved by 70 basis points to 18.7%. Adjusted gross margins for the quarter totalled 48.3%, which were down slightly from 48.7% during the year-ago quarter, but improved sequentially from 46.9% for the first quarter of 2025.

本季度，調整後的 EBITDA 成長 10.1% 至 7,520 萬美元，而去年同期為 6,840 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 70 個基點，達到 18.7%。本季調整後毛利率總計 48.3%，較去年同期的 48.7% 略有下降，但較 2025 年第一季的 46.9% 有所提高。

Driving our sequential margin performance for the quarter was improved margins in RDS and a modest amount of tariff-related price. Our biggest segment, Hardware and Protective Solutions, or HPS, had a great quarter with 8.7% growth versus the comparable period.

推動我們本季連續利潤率表現的因素是 RDS 利潤率的提高以及適度的關稅相關價格。我們最大的部門硬體和保護解決方案（HPS）本季表現出色，與去年同期相比成長了 8.7%。

Adjusted EBITDA increased by 14.7% to $51.5 million. Our results were driven by contributions from Intex's acquisition, new business wins and price, offset by just 1% decline in HPS market volume. Net sales in Robotics and Digital Solutions, or RDS, were up 2.3% versus the year ago quarter.

調整後 EBITDA 成長 14.7%，達到 5,150 萬美元。我們的業績受到 Intex 收購、新業務勝利和價格的貢獻所推動，但 HPS 市場銷售量僅下降 1% 所抵銷。機器人和數位解決方案（RDS）的淨銷售額較去年同期成長 2.3%。

This is our second consecutive quarter of growth for RDS, which confirms our MinuteKey 3.5 strategy is working. Adjusted gross margins and adjusted EBITDA margins both improved sequentially, totalling 73.1% and 32%, respectively. As of today, we have over 2,200 MinuteKey 3.5 machines in the field. We remain on track to finalize the rollout of these kiosks to our two largest customers by the end of 2026.

這是我們 RDS 連續第二季實現成長，這證明我們的 MinuteKey 3.5 策略正在發揮作用。調整後的毛利率和調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率均比上一季提高，分別達到 73.1% 和 32%。截至今天，我們已在現場擁有超過 2,200 台 MinuteKey 3.5 機器。我們仍有望在 2026 年底前向我們最大的兩個客戶推出這些資訊亭。

Now turning to Canada. Net sales in our Canadian business were down 5.6% compared to the prior year quarter. Sales volumes and adjusted EBITDA improved sequentially as we moved from winter into the spring selling season.

現在轉向加拿大。我們加拿大業務的淨銷售額與去年同期相比下降了 5.6%。隨著銷售季節從冬季進入春季，銷售量和調整後的 EBITDA 連續改善。

Market volumes improved but remained soft and FX headwinds weighed on our Canada's results. For the second half of the year, we expect Canada to return to top line growth. And for the full year, we continue to expect that adjusted EBITDA margins will remain above 10% in Canada. Overall, Hillman is in a great position with our customers, and we'll continue to successfully execute in this environment.

市場交易量有所改善，但依然疲軟，外匯逆風對我們加拿大的業績造成壓力。我們預計今年下半年加拿大的營收將恢復成長。就全年而言，我們預計加拿大的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率仍將保持在 10% 以上。總體而言，希爾曼在客戶中處於有利地位，我們將繼續在這種環境中成功執行。

With that, let me turn it over to Rocky to talk financials and guidance. Rocky?

說完這些，讓我把話題交給 Rocky 來談談財務和指導問題。洛基？

Thanks, JMA. Let me dive right into our results, and then I'll get to our guidance. Net sales in the second quarter of 2025 totalled $402.8 million, an increase of 6.2% versus the prior year quarter. Second quarter adjusted gross margins decreased by 40 basis points to 48.3% versus the prior year quarter, but improved 140 basis points sequentially. The Intex acquisition we made in August of 2024 has gross margins below our fleet. This drove the step down in margins versus last year.

謝謝，JMA。讓我直接介紹一下我們的結果，然後我會給予我們的指導。2025 年第二季淨銷售額總計 4.028 億美元，較去年同期成長 6.2%。第二季調整後毛利率較去年同期下降 40 個基點至 48.3%，但較上一季增加 140 個基點。我們於 2024 年 8 月收購的 Intex 的毛利率低於我們的車隊。這導致利潤率較去年同期有所下降。

Additionally, we saw a modest amount of tariff-related price during the quarter, which helped our margins improve sequentially while entering into our busier spring selling season where we leverage more of our fixed costs.

此外，我們在本季度看到了與關稅相關的價格的適度上漲，這有助於我們的利潤率連續提高，同時進入我們更繁忙的春季銷售季節，我們可以利用更多的固定成本。

Adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales decreased to 29.7% during the quarter from 30.7% from the year ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter totalled $75.2 million, improving 10% versus the year ago quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA to net sales margin during the quarter improved by 70 basis points to 18.7% from a year ago.

調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比從去年同期的 30.7% 下降至本季的 29.7%。第二季調整後 EBITDA 總計 7,520 萬美元，較去年同期成長 10%。本季度，我們的調整後 EBITDA 與淨銷售額的利潤率較去年同期提高了 70 個基點，達到 18.7%。

Let me now turn to cash flows. For the quarter, net cash provided by operating activities was $48.7 million, and we generated $31.2 million of free cash flow even with a $32.5 million cash headwind from tariffs. Turning to leverage and liquidity. We ended the second quarter of 2025 with $674.7 million of total net debt outstanding, which decreased by $29 million from the end of the first quarter.

現在讓我來談談現金流。本季度，經營活動提供的淨現金為 4,870 萬美元，即使關稅帶來 3,250 萬美元的現金逆風，我們仍產生了 3,120 萬美元的自由現金流。轉向槓桿和流動性。截至 2025 年第二季末，我們的未償還淨債務總額為 6.747 億美元，比第一季末減少了 2,900 萬美元。

Liquidity available totalled $246.9 million, consisting of $212.7 million of availability on our credit facility and $34.2 million of cash and equivalents. At quarter end, our net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 2.7 times versus 2.9 times a quarter ago and 2.8 times at the end of 2024.

可用流動資金總額為 2.469 億美元，其中包括 2.127 億美元的信貸額度可用資金和 3,420 萬美元的現金及等價物。截至季末，我們的淨負債與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率改善至 2.7 倍，而上一季為 2.9 倍，2024 年底為 2.8 倍。

We maintain that our long-term adjusted EBITDA to net debt leverage ratio target remains at or below 2.5 times. This will give us the flexibility to grow via M&A and use our improved financial strength to play offense.

我們維持長期調整後 EBITDA 與淨債務槓桿目標維持在 2.5 倍或以下。這將使我們能夠靈活地透過併購實現成長，並利用我們增強的財務實力來發動攻擊。

Last week, our Board approved a $100 million share repurchase program. This is the first time Hillman has had an SRP in place since coming public in 2021. We are comfortable with our leverage ratio and feel it prudent to have an active plan in place. We intend to buy stock back to offset dilution resulting from employee stock awards. Doing so will have a minimal impact on our leverage. We will also seek to buy stock back when we believe there is a disconnect between the value of our company and the value of where the stock is trading.

上週，我們的董事會批准了一項 1 億美元的股票回購計畫。這是希爾曼自 2021 年上市以來首次實施 SRP。我們對我們的槓桿率感到滿意，並認為制定積極的計劃是明智之舉。我們打算回購股票以抵銷員工股票獎勵造成的稀釋。這樣做對我們的槓桿作用的影響將微乎其微。當我們認為公司的價值與股票交易價值之間存在脫節時，我們也會尋求回購股票。

We anticipate deploying between $20 million and $25 million annually depending on the market. We believe these repurchases will be accretive to earnings per share, drive shareholder value and will be an attractive place to invest capital.

根據市場情況，我們預計每年將投入 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元。我們相信這些回購將增加每股收益，提高股東價值，並將成為有吸引力的資本投資場所。

Similar to the SRP, our Board also approved a shelf registration statement. Similar to the SRP, we felt it good public company governance to have a shelf on file. To be clear, we do not intend to use the shelf to raise capital of any kind in the foreseeable future. We are simply putting the mechanism in place now.

與 SRP 類似，我們的董事會也批准了一份擱置註冊聲明。與 SRP 類似，我們認為，將文件歸檔是良好的上市公司治理方式。需要明確的是，在可預見的未來，我們並不打算利用這個架子來籌集任何形式的資金。我們現在只是在建立機制。

Now let me turn to our guidance. While Hillman's business is generally resilient because of the demand for our products used for repair and maintenance projects around the home, we are not immune to declining foot traffic at our retail partners and a consumer watching their spending.

現在讓我來談談我們的指導。雖然希爾曼的業務總體上由於對我們產品用於家庭維修和保養項目的需求而具有彈性，但我們也無法免受零售合作夥伴客流量下降和消費者關注支出的影響。

Our top and bottom line guide contemplate a volume decline, which we believe is a prudent outlook for the year, considering existing home sales are projected to remain flat. On our last call, we told you that our guidance was conservative and our volumes will be better than our guide. So far, that has proven to be the case.

我們的最高和最低指導都考慮到了銷量的下降，考慮到現有房屋銷售預計將保持平穩，我們認為這是今年的審慎前景。在我們上次的電話會議中，我們告訴您我們的指導是保守的，我們的交易量將比我們的指導更好。到目前為止，事實已經證明如此。

Now we have more clarity on how tariffs will impact our business, and there's less uncertainty around our expectations for the year. As such, we have increased the low end of our net sales guidance by $40 million. This raises the midpoint as the top end remains unchanged.

現在，我們更加清楚關稅將如何影響我們的業務，對今年的預期也更加不確定。因此，我們將淨銷售額預期的低端提高了 4000 萬美元。由於頂端保持不變，因此這會提高中點。

Our updated net sales guidance is now between $1.535 billion to $1.575 billion, with a midpoint of $1.555 billion, reflecting 5.6% growth over last year and a $20 million increase from our previous guide. We are also increasing the low end of our adjusted EBITDA guidance by $10 million.

我們更新後的淨銷售額預期目前在 15.35 億美元至 15.75 億美元之間，中間值為 15.55 億美元，比去年同期成長 5.6%，比我們先前的預期增加 2,000 萬美元。我們也將調整後的 EBITDA 預期下限提高 1,000 萬美元。

This raises the midpoint as the top end remains unchanged. Our updated adjusted EBITDA guidance is now between $265 million and $275 million, with a midpoint of $270 million, reflecting 11.7% growth over last year and a $5 million increase from our previous guide.

由於頂端保持不變，因此這會提高中點。我們更新後的調整後 EBITDA 指引目前在 2.65 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間，中間值為 2.7 億美元，比去年增長 11.7%，比我們先前的指引增加 500 萬美元。

In addition, we calculate the annualized run rate for tariffs to be approximately $150 million. The team has done a great job working with our customers to get price. We are confident we will end the year around 2.4 times leverage, assuming we hit the midpoint of our guidance even after deploying some cash to execute a modest share repurchase.

此外，我們計算關稅的年化運作率約為 1.5 億美元。該團隊在與客戶合作以獲得價格方面做得非常出色。我們相信，假設我們達到指導的中點，即使在部署一些現金進行適度的股票回購之後，我們也將在年底實現 2.4 倍左右的槓桿率。

Before I turn it back to JMA, I wanted to thank the Hillman team who has worked extremely hard to deliver such a strong quarter with healthy growth on both the top and bottom line. As we look ahead, we are confident in our ability to carry this momentum forward with disciplined execution and a focus on our strategic priorities.

在轉回 JMA 之前，我想感謝 Hillman 團隊，他們付出了極大的努力才取得瞭如此強勁的季度業績，實現了營收和利潤的健康增長。展望未來，我們有信心，透過嚴謹的執行和對策略重點的關注，我們有能力保持這一勢頭。

We are well positioned to build on this foundation and expect to see sustained growth throughout the remainder of the year while we focus on growing with our customers and driving shareholder value. JMA, back to you.

我們已做好準備，在此基礎上繼續發展，並預計在今年剩餘時間內實現持續成長，同時我們將專注於與客戶共同成長並推動股東價值的提升。JMA，回到你身邊。

Thanks, Rocky. As Rocky said, the team has done a great job this year. I am confident Hillman is positioned for long-term success and long-term growth. To our 1,200-plus frontline sales and service folks, our operations team, product team and all the support functions across the organization, I am so proud of how the entire Hillman team continues to execute and win. I'd also like to extend my appreciation to our customers, vendors, partners and shareholders for their ongoing trust and support.

謝謝，洛基。正如洛奇所說，球隊今年的表現非常出色。我相信希爾曼將獲得長期成功和長期成長。對於我們 1,200 多名第一線銷售和服務人員、我們的營運團隊、產品團隊以及整個組織的所有支援職能部門，我為整個 Hillman 團隊繼續執行並取得勝利感到非常自豪。我也要向我們的客戶、供應商、合作夥伴和股東表示感謝，感謝他們一直以來的信任與支持。

We're proud of the growth we delivered this quarter and remain confident in our ability to execute and build on the momentum throughout the year and beyond. With that, I'll turn it back to Towanda for the Q&A portion of our call. Towanda, please open the call for questions.

我們為本季實現的成長感到自豪，並對我們全年及以後的執行和發展勢頭的能力充滿信心。說完這些，我將把電話會議的問答環節交還給 Towanda。托萬達，請開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Lee Jagoda, CJS Securities.

Lee Jagoda，CJS 證券。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Good morning, Lee.

早安，李。

So just two questions. One kind of bigger picture and one more numbers related. Just on the bigger picture stuff, in the recent past, you've talked about focusing a little more on the pro channel. And I'd love to understand how your competitive advantages in the retail channel would translate to the pro channel and kind of give you the right to win? And any examples of recent success would be great.

所以只有兩個問題。一種更大的圖景和另一種相關的數字。就更大範圍而言，最近您談到要更專注於專業頻道。我很想了解您在零售通路的競爭優勢將如何轉化為專業通路並賦予您獲勝的權利？任何近期成功的例子都是很好的。

Lee, thanks. I'll take that one. So from the pro perspective, today, 25% plus of our business is pro related. So to me, especially in areas like fasteners, we have the permission to play. We have the products. We've got brands like Power Pro.

李，謝謝。我要那個。因此從專業角度來看，今天我們的業務有 25% 以上與專業相關。所以對我來說，特別是在緊固件等領域，我們有發揮的空間。我們有產品。我們有像 Power Pro 這樣的品牌。

For instance, where we just launched a full range of structural products. We've got a full range of products in a number of different areas in fastening. And today, those pros are using our products. We have focused on supporting our customers where they support the Pro.

例如，我們剛剛推出了全系列結構產品。我們在緊固領域的多個不同領域都擁有全系列的產品。今天，這些專業人士正在使用我們的產品。我們專注於為支援 Pro 的客戶提供支援。

As our customers continue to expand and we have other opportunities in channels like LVM, our customers are serving the pro. We're going to continue to lead in there. So we're very excited about the, I'll say, the opportunity as we go forward.

隨著我們的客戶不斷擴大，並且我們在 LVM 等管道中擁有其他機會，我們的客戶正在為專業人士提供服務。我們將繼續在那裡保持領先。因此，我想說，我們對未來的機會感到非常興奮。

At this point, we've got success in the fact that, that area continues to grow for us. I won't go into great detail on this call, but we'll have some future updates where we'll talk about some of the things we're doing in Pro and how we'll continue to lean in. So thanks for the question.

目前，我們已經取得了成功，該領域正在繼續發展。我不會在這次電話會議上透露太多細節，但我們將在未來發布一些更新，討論我們在 Pro 中所做的一些事情以及我們將如何繼續努力。感謝您的提問。

Sure. And then Rocky, just one for you on numbers. Now that we have that clarity on the tariff impact. I know last quarter, you were able to give us some guidance in terms of the cadence for EBITDA and how price rolls in versus when costs hit the P&L. Can you give us an update on what the back half cadence should look like?

當然。然後是 Rocky，我只想問你一個關於數字的問題。現在我們已經清楚了解關稅的影響了。我知道上個季度，您能夠就 EBITDA 的節奏以及價格如何變化以及成本何時影響損益表為我們提供一些指導。您能否向我們介紹後半段節奏應該是什麼樣的呢？

Yeah, Lee. I mean, as you know, it depends on the product. But given what we have from an inventory perspective, we'll start feeling the cost from tariffs late in the third quarter. That said, every product tends to be different, and there are a lot of moving parts as you think about it. But that means that we'll have a -- we believe we'll have a very strong third quarter because most of the price, if not all, will be in place.

是的，李。我的意思是，如你所知，這取決於產品。但考慮到我們的庫存情況，我們將在第三季末開始感受到關稅帶來的成本。話雖如此，但每種產品往往都有所不同，而且如果你仔細想想，你會發現其中有很多活動部件。但這意味著我們將有一個——我們相信我們將有一個非常強勁的第三季度，因為大部分（如果不是全部）價格都會到位。

We'll begin to feel the tariff cost. And then as we go into the fourth quarter, we should see tariff cost and price both fully in the run rate. The only other thing I would say, as you heard in our prepared remarks, the cash hit us right away.

我們將開始感受到關稅成本。然後，當我們進入第四季度時，我們應該會看到關稅成本和價格都完全進入運行率。我唯一想說的是，正如您在我們準備好的發言中所聽到的，現金馬上就到賬了。

So it was a cash strain in the second quarter. It will be a little bit of a cash negative in the third quarter, but we still feel really good about where we're taking the business and really, really happy with how the team has done working with our customers to, in some cases, move products, in other cases, get price where we need to cover and we feel like we're in really good shape for the rest of the year.

因此第二季出現了現金緊張的情況。第三季的現金流會稍微有點負值，但我們對業務的發展方向仍然感到非常滿意，並且對團隊與客戶合作的方式感到非常非常滿意，在某些情況下，我們轉移了產品，在其他情況下，我們獲得了需要覆蓋的價格，我們覺得我們在今年剩餘時間裡的狀態非常好。

Okay. Great. I'll let others hop in the queue. Thanks.

好的。偉大的。我會讓其他人插隊。謝謝。

Thanks, Lee.

謝謝，李。

William Carter, Stifel.

威廉·卡特，斯蒂費爾。

Hey, thank you. Good morning. Question I have for next year around the guidance. You said rollover pricing and new business wins against a flat market. Does that assume -- is that clarity, does that assume just new business wins you did this year? Or does that assume you go back to steady state next year? And on that note, business wins have kind of cooled this year. Do you have confidence that you're able to fully accelerate and get back to that level of growth next year? Thanks.

嘿，謝謝你。早安.我對明年的指導有疑問。您說過，在市場穩定的情況下，展期定價和新業務會成功。這是否假設——這是否清晰，這是否假設您今年只贏得了新業務？或者這是否假設你明年會恢復穩定狀態？從這一點來看，今年的商業勝利有所降溫。您是否有信心明年能夠全面加速並恢復到這一增長水平？謝謝。

Well, there are two things I would say there. This is Rocky. First off, we still expect that we'll be at or above -- slightly above our 2% new business wins, which we've done for many years in a row. As we look to 2026, yes, we have pretty good clarity around that. If you assume we do our 2% to 3%.

嗯，我想說兩件事。這是洛基。首先，我們仍然預計我們的新業務成長將達到或略高於 2%，這是我們連續多年做到的。展望 2026 年，是的，我們對此有相當清晰的認識。如果你假設我們做到 2% 到 3%。

And again, to be clear, we're not giving a guide that we think the markets are flat in '26. What we're saying is if you assume the markets are flat, and if you think about our implied guide in the back half, it would suggest that volumes are down 9% in the back half. It would assume that that's down 6% for the full year in 2025. And that gets us to some really interesting levels. That level of being down this year, quite frankly, if you take COVID out, it will be the worst market year we've seen in Hillman since 2008 or 2009.

再次明確一點，我們並沒有給出 26 年市場將持平的預測。我們的意思是，如果你假設市場平穩，如果你考慮我們在下半年的隱含指南，那麼這表明下半年的交易量將下降 9%。預計到 2025 年全年這一數字將下降 6%。這讓我們達到一些非常有趣的水平。坦白說，如果排除新冠疫情的影響，今年的市場下滑程度將是自 2008 年或 2009 年以來希爾曼表現最糟糕的一年。

So again, we think we're being prudent because we are putting a lot of price in market. Everybody is putting a lot of price to market. And clearly, there will be some impact on volumes. But I think while not a guy, assuming markets are flat next year, I think it's prudent at this point in time. I mean it's the beginning of August.

因此，我們認為我們是謹慎的，因為我們在市場上投入了大量資金。每個人都在為市場付出高昂的價格。顯然，這會對銷量產生一些影響。但我認為，儘管我不是個男人，但假設明年市場持平，我認為目前這是謹慎的做法。我的意思是現在是八月初。

Thanks for that. Second question, you did say -- correct me if I'm wrong, annualized impact is now $150 million regarding tariffs. I guess as you think about that impact, and we've had a lot of fluidity, things change, I guess, we had some certainty at the end of July. Do you have kind of full visibility into that number, all the nuances, I know steel went from $25 to $50, but that's on the components. Do you have full visibility into that? And is there any fluidity or risk in your pricing, i.e., things could change, somebody saying, "Hey, let's wait 6 weeks, et cetera? Just I'll stop there. Thanks.

謝謝。第二個問題，你確實說過──如果我錯了請糾正我，關稅的年化影響現在是 1.5 億美元。我想，當你考慮到這種影響時，我們已經有很多流動性，事情發生了變化，我想，我們在七月底有了一些確定性。您是否對這個數字以及所有細微差別有全面的了解，我知道鋼材價格從 25 美元漲到了 50 美元，但這只是零部件價格。您對此有充分的了解嗎？您的定價是否存在流動性或風險，例如，情況可能會發生變化，有人會說，「嘿，讓我們等 6 週，等等？我就到此為止吧。謝謝。

Yeah. Again, this is Rocky. I mean as you can imagine, the $150 million is a very round number. There's a ton of fluidity in that. And there's a lot of reasons, not only what the administration might do, but there's also fluidity around what volumes do in the back half, and that clearly impacts that number.

是的。再說一遍，這是洛奇。我的意思是，你可以想像，1.5 億美元是一個非常整數。這其中存在著大量的流動性。原因有很多，不僅是政府可能採取的措施，還有後半部交易量的波動性，這顯然會影響這個數字。

And so as we think about it, we've covered our net tariff exposure, we're confident that anything that happens going forward, particularly as you start thinking about how it rolls through our inventory, will most likely not impact '25 as much as it will 2026. But I have to tell you, our customers have been great.

因此，當我們考慮這一點時，我們已經涵蓋了我們的淨關稅風險，我們相信未來發生的任何事情，特別是當你開始考慮它如何影響我們的庫存時，很可能不會像 2026 年那樣對 2025 年產生影響。但我必須告訴你，我們的客戶非常棒。

And we have spent a lot of time making sure that we work with our customers to get the right amount of tariff price. They understand that we're just covering the tariff prices as if it were a tax. We're not trying to maintain our margins and they understand that. And I think that's a positive. So far, everything we've done with our customers has been executed very well. We thank our customers. And as we think about the future, if there is fluidity, to your point, and it changes which it's likely to, we will be changing what our pricing is with our customers, either up or down.

我們花費了大量時間確保與客戶合作以獲得合適的關稅價格。他們明白我們只是把關稅價格當成稅來支付。我們並沒有試圖維持我們的利潤率，他們明白這一點。我認為這是積極的。到目前為止，我們與客戶所做的一切都執行得非常好。我們感謝我們的客戶。當我們思考未來時，如果出現流動性，就像您所說的那樣，並且可能會發生變化，我們就會改變對客戶的定價，無論是提高還是降低。

Thanks. I'll pass on.

謝謝。我會傳承下去。

Michael Francis, William Blair.

麥可法蘭西斯、威廉布萊爾。

Hi, guys. Nice quarter. I wanted to go back to the back half cadence question that Lee asked. And more pointedly, I think last time you mentioned you're expecting about 300 basis points of gross margin, give back from tariff prices. Is that still accurate? And is there anything you can kind of do to level set us on how we should think about gross margins in 3Q and 4Q?

嗨，大家好。不錯的季度。我想回到李問的後半終止式問題。更尖銳地說，我認為上次您提到，您預計毛利率約為 300 個基點，將從關稅價格中回流。這仍然準確嗎？您能做些什麼來幫助我們如何看待第三季和第四季的毛利率嗎？

Yeah. I'd like to not get into specifics around gross margin. What I would tell you is the 300 basis point degradation was in the face of $250 million of tariff price. And so we've said that we believe that number has come down to $150 million. So it's a safe assumption that, that impact has come down relative to how we think about the future.

是的。我不想談論毛利率的具體細節。我想告訴你的是，面對 2.5 億美元的關稅價格，降幅達到 300 個基點。所以我們說我們相信這個數字已經降至 1.5 億美元。因此可以安全地假設，相對於我們對未來的看法而言，這種影響已經下降。

I think as you think about the -- I would go more to kind of the rest of the year. And as we think about our EBITDA margin for the full year, I think you can probably safely assume we'll be up about 100 basis points year-over-year is probably a safe way to think about it.

我想，正如你所想的那樣——我會在今年剩餘的時間裡做更多的事情。當我們考慮全年的 EBITDA 利潤率時，我想您可以放心地假設我們的利潤率將比去年同期增長約 100 個基點，這可能是一種安全的思考方式。

Now again, to remind everyone, there's a little bit of a tariff windfall in that because of the timing of pricing. But again, we've been paying those tariffs now for 45 days to 90 days depending on the tariff. And so it is a cash drain to the company. And so rightfully so that, that price has been put in place.

現在再次提醒大家，由於定價時機的原因，這會帶來一點關稅意外之財。但同樣，我們現在已經支付了 45 天到 90 天的關稅，具體取決於關稅。因此這對公司來說是一種現金流失。因此，這個價格理所當然地已經確定。

And then I know it doesn't seem like demand has deteriorated much, if at all. And you talked about volumes implied in the back half of 9%. So I just wanted to see what you're seeing on R&R. And if that 9% number is just sort of a conservative approach to the market or if there's some deterioration happening right now that you're seeing?

然後我知道需求似乎沒有惡化太多，甚至根本沒有惡化。您談到了 9% 後半部隱含的交易量。所以我只是想看看你在 R&R 上看到了什麼。如果 9% 這個數字只是對市場的保守態度，或者您現在是否看到了一些惡化的情況？

Yeah. Right now, we feel that is the right guide. So that's why we're sticking with a minus 9%. We do feel like there will be some pressure in the back half of the year. But overall, we were actually pleased with what we did in Q2.

是的。現在，我們認為這是正確的指南。這就是我們堅持-9%的原因。我們確實覺得下半年會有一些壓力。但總體而言，我們對第二季的表現感到滿意。

As we came out and we called our sales number and actually hit it and exceeded it. So we feel good about where we're positioned. Until price is fully right into the marketplace, it's hard to really change that view. We'll give you an update when we come back and deliver our Q3 earnings. But we feel good about where we are right now. We feel like we're being prudent, as Rocky said earlier in his prepared remarks.

當我們推出並公佈我們的銷售數字時，我們確實達到並超越了這個數字。因此，我們對自己的定位感到滿意。除非價格完全進入市場，否則很難真正改變這種觀點。當我們回來並公佈第三季收益時，我們會向您提供最新消息。但我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。正如洛奇早些時候在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我們覺得自己很謹慎。

Right. Appreciate the color. I'll pass it on.

正確的。欣賞色彩。我會傳達的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬修·布萊（Matthew Bouley）。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to ask around elasticity. Just very helpful color there around the volumes down 9% in the second half. I think in Q2 here, you had price up 2% and volume down 2%. But thinking about that 2026 up high singles to low doubles on price, I guess, I just wanted to double check on the assumption that you're not expecting to have sort of an offsetting volume impact in 2026, sort of, I guess, mirroring price. So just kind of -- I guess, expand on that and sort of help us understand the conviction around kind of minimizing that elasticity. Thank you.

大家早安。感謝您回答這些問題。我想問一下有關彈性的問題。下半年交易量下降了 9%，非常有幫助。我認為在第二季度，價格上漲了 2%，而交易量下降了 2%。但考慮到 2026 年高單價上漲至低雙價，我想，我只是想再確認一下，你預計 2026 年不會出現某種抵消銷量的影響，我想，這有點像鏡像價格。所以只是有點——我想，擴展這一點並幫助我們理解最小化彈性的信念。謝謝。

Yeah, Matt, I think we would start by telling you that when you think about repair and maintenance, if somebody needs to fix something, and we spend a lot of time talking about this on the last quarterly call, they're going to fix it. And so there's not a lot of elasticity in price for a lot of our products.

是的，馬特，我想我們首先要告訴你，當你考慮維修和保養時，如果有人需要修理某些東西，而我們在上次季度電話會議上花了很多時間討論這個問題，他們就會去修理它。因此，我們的許多產品的價格彈性不大。

Clearly, we're not going to say there's no elasticity. And so that's one of the reasons that we've guided for the market to be down in the back half. As we think about next year, again, I want to be clear that a flat market was not our guidance. Our guidance for what we said our comments because it's not really guidance, just directionally around 2026 that was that in the situation where the market is flat.

顯然，我們不會說沒有彈性。這就是我們預測下半年市場將下跌的原因之一。當我們考慮明年時，我再次明確表示，平淡的市場不是我們的預期。我們對所發表的評論的指導並不是真正的指導，而只是在 2026 年左右的方向性指導，那是在市場平穩的情況下。

Now again, if you start to compound what our markets have done over the last several years, you have to go back many years to find levels where we would be going into 2026, if you assume that our markets are down 9% in the back half. And so I would say we have -- do we have a lot of conviction that the markets will be flat right now? It's August, whatever, third, fourth, fifth. So your guess is as good as ours.

現在，如果你開始計算過去幾年我們的市場表現，你必須回顧很多年才能找到我們進入 2026 年的水平，如果你假設我們的市場在下半年下跌了 9%。所以我想說，我們是否確信市場現在會保持穩定？現在是八月，不管是三號，四號，還是五號。所以你的猜測和我們的一樣好。

Do we expect that markets will be down say something like mid-single digits? I think we have a lot of conviction that, that will not be the case that these markets will be around flat next year. Are they up a couple? Are they down a couple? Hard telling and will depend upon a lot of factors that are really hard to predict when you're in the first week of August.

我們是否預期市場將出現中等個位數的下跌？我認為我們非常有信心，明年這些市場不會保持穩定。他們是一對嗎？他們少了幾對嗎？很難說，而且取決於許多因素，這些因素在八月的第一週很難預測。

Okay. Got it. No, that's super helpful. Secondly, on the margin side, I guess, a two parter. One is, if you could just clarify that short period where the tariffs on China were at 145%. I'm just curious if there's any kind of small temporary impact from that. So if you could just clarify that.

好的。知道了。不，這非常有幫助。其次，從邊際角度來說，我想，可以分成兩個部分。一是，您能否澄清一下對中國徵收 145% 關稅的那段短暫時期。我只是好奇這是否會產生任何暫時的小影響。所以如果你能澄清一下的話。

But then Secondly, if I do the back of the envelope on 2026, it seems like you're suggesting maybe the EBITDA margin down about 100 basis points next year. So if you could just kind of speak to, is that simply the price and cost, the math around how that impacts the rate? Or is there anything else that's kind of impacting that EBITDA margin in 2026? Thank you.

但其次，如果我對 2026 年進行粗略預測，似乎您建議明年 EBITDA 利潤率可能會下降約 100 個基點。所以，如果您能簡單說一下，這僅僅是價格和成本嗎？它對利率有何影響？或者有其他因素會影響 2026 年的 EBITDA 利潤率嗎？謝謝。

Let me try to do that in two pieces. So first, on your first question, I think we paid the [$145 million]. And honestly, I'm looking at my team right now for about two weeks, so it's not material to anything that we would be disclosing you're talking about.

讓我嘗試分成兩部分來做這件事。首先，關於你的第一個問題，我認為我們已經支付了[1.45億美元]。老實說，我現在正在考察我的團隊大約兩週，因此，我們披露您所談論的任何內容並不重要。

As you think about the rate, the ballpark -- you're in the ballpark around what we think about rate for next year. Again, during the third quarter of this year, there will be a bit of timing around a windfall around tariffs. That said, we will hang on to full price as we think about going into the fourth quarter and into next year, pending the fluidity that we answered in an earlier question.

當您考慮利率時，大致情況是 - 您大致了解我們對明年利率的看法。再次，今年第三季度，圍繞關稅將會出現一些意外收穫。話雖如此，當我們考慮進入第四季度和明年時，我們將堅持全價，等待我們在先前的問題中回答的流動性。

And so again, happy to lap that, I'll call it, slight period of windfall in tariffs is what's driving the lack of leverage between the top line and the EBITDA rate. But again, the one thing I would say, and JMA, you may want to comment here, but we're running this business, I think, better than we ever have, and I've been here for seven years or eight years. And so as the numbers move around, we're highly confident that we can do the right things to create the right type of profitability in this business in any environment.

因此，我很高興再次談到這一點，我稱之為關稅的輕微暴利時期，這是導致營業收入和 EBITDA 率之間缺乏槓桿作用的原因。但是，我想說的是，JMA，您可能想在這裡發表評論，但我認為，我們正在經營這項業務，比以往任何時候都要好，而且我已經在這裡工作了七八年了。因此，無論數字如何變化，我們都非常有信心，我們可以在任何環境下做正確的事情，為這項業務創造正確的獲利能力。

Rocky is right. I mean we've set up the global supply chain, which (inaudible) our prepared remarks. And I think you guys have seen what we've done over the last several quarters and actually a couple of years where we built more resiliency in their supply chain. We've improved our cost position. And now we actually have multiple countries of origin to be able to diversify our supply base.

洛奇是對的。我的意思是我們已經建立了全球供應鏈，這（聽不清楚）是我們準備好的發言。我想你們已經看到了我們在過去幾個季度以及實際上幾年所做的工作，我們在他們的供應鏈中建立了更強的彈性。我們已經改善了我們的成本狀況。現在我們實際上有多個原產國，能夠實現供應基礎多樣化。

So we feel like our input costs are in good shape. We're running our business from a freight perspective, pleased with where we are there. Obviously, everybody is dealing with some level of inflation, which we're managing, and we're going to continue to manage the business as we go forward. So we do feel like we're positioned well to deal with the back half and into 2026.

因此，我們覺得我們的投入成本狀況良好。我們從貨運的角度來經營我們的業務，對目前的狀況感到滿意。顯然，每個人都在應對一定程度的通貨膨脹，我們正在管理這個問題，我們將在未來繼續管理業務。因此，我們確實感覺我們已經做好了充分的準備來應對下半年和 2026 年的挑戰。

Alright. Well, thanks, guys. Good luck.

好吧。好吧，謝謝大家。祝你好運。

You're welcome. Thank you.

不客氣。謝謝。

Brian McNamara, Canaccord.

麥克納馬拉（Brian McNamara），Canaccord。

Thanks, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Good morning, and congrats on strong results. So first on pricing. We haven't seen much pricing on the shelf based on our work. And I'm curious when you would expect that to hit the shelves on the retailer level, understanding that obviously each retailer will do things differently.

謝謝大家。感謝您回答這個問題。早上好，恭喜您取得優異的成績。首先是定價。根據我們的工作，我們還沒有看到太多的貨架定價。我很好奇您預計這款產品什麼時候會在零售商層面上架，顯然每個零售商的做法都會不同。

And then secondly, or Rocky maybe. I know in May, you called out for H2 pricing of plus 17%, offset by similar volume decline. And I think you mentioned in one of the answers to the question is that H2 guide calls for a 9% volume decline, but I don't think I heard what's built in for H2 pricing component.

其次，也許是洛奇。我知道，在五月份，您曾呼籲將 H2 價格提高 17%，以抵消類似的銷量下降。我認為您在其中一個問題的答案中提到，H2 指南要求交易量下降 9%，但我認為我沒有聽到 H2 定價成分的內建內容。

Yeah. Maybe let me go first, Jamie. Maybe you cannot answer the question about retailers.

是的。也許讓我先走吧，傑米。也許你無法回答有關零售商的問題。

Thank you for answering my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Yeah, the guide would assume that in the second half, we have about 6.5% total price in the business.

是的，指南假設下半年我們的業務總價約為 6.5%。

Okay. And then Jon, do you want to -- as you guys do quite a bit of work, we appreciate your focus on our company and the work that you do at the shelf. I mean there's price has been going into the marketplace at different times. So we're watching it like you are. Really to Rocky's point, it's not my place to be commenting on what our retailers will do in the back half of the year. So I think we'll have to stay posted for what we see.

好的。然後喬恩，你想——你們做了相當多的工作，我們感謝你對我們公司的關注以及你在貨架上所做的工作。我的意思是價格在不同的時間進入市場。所以我們和你一樣在關注著它。正如 Rocky 所說，我沒有資格評論我們的零售商在今年下半年會做什麼。所以我認為我們必須密切注意我們所看到的情況。

Yeah. Brian, just to clarify, when I said 6.5% price, that's full year price, not the second half.

是的。布萊恩，需要澄清的是，當我說 6.5% 的價格時，指的是全年價格，而不是下半年的價格。

Understood. Okay. And then secondly, look, the existing home sales appear to be hopefully bumping along the bottom here on 4 million units. Where does that number need to go for you to see a material impact on your business and market volumes overall?

明白了。好的。其次，現有房屋銷售量可望觸底，達到 400 萬套。這個數字需要達到什麼程度才能對您的業務和整體市場容量產生實質影響？

It's a great question. We feel like we believe getting back to a $5 million number is where we would like to see in the future. We don't have it perfectly correlated to what that growth would be if that's your follow-on question. But we feel like a [$4.5 million], [$5 million] -- 5 million unit number is more in line with where we'd expect the business to be and see some of our categories that have been negatively impacted by the decline in existing home sales improved. So that's what we're hoping for as we go forward. But also in our guide, we know where the business is today, and we feel confident with it running at $4 million-ish from what we've talked about in 2025.

這是一個很好的問題。我們覺得，我們相信未來我們希望看到收入回到 500 萬美元這個數字。如果這是您的後續問題，我們並沒有將其與成長完全關聯起來。但我們覺得 [450 萬美元]、[500 萬美元]——500 萬套這個數字更符合我們對業務的預期，而且我們看到一些受到現有房屋銷售下滑負面影響的類別有所改善。這就是我們前進的希望。但在我們的指南中，我們也知道今天的業務狀況，根據我們所說的，我們有信心在 2025 年實現 400 萬美元左右的營運規模。

Got it. Thanks, guys. I'll pass it on.

知道了。謝謝大家。我會傳達的。

Alright. Thank you.

好吧。謝謝。

David Manthey, Baird.

大衛‧曼西，貝爾德。

Yeah, thank you. Good morning, guys. First question is on the change in tariff expectations. So you went to a $37.5 million per quarter run rate assumption and you were at $52.5 million previously. So in the second half, that would be like $50 million upside. I think you said you raised the guidance by $40 million. Is that just reflective of the tariffs kind of rolling in through the third quarter?

是的，謝謝。大家早安。第一個問題是關於關稅預期的變化。因此，您假設每季的運行率是 3750 萬美元，而之前是 5250 萬美元。因此，在下半年，這將是 5000 萬美元的上漲。我想您說過您將指導金額提高了 4000 萬美元。這是否僅僅反映了第三季關稅的實施？

Yeah. The only thing I would say about the math that you just did, Dave, is remember, it's not going to -- the tariff cost isn't going to hit us until late in the third quarter. It's going to begin hitting us. So I think your run rate numbers are right. But again, it's just a period of time where we have price and not tariff cost. It's not like a whole quarter or a big period of time. I'm not sure if that answers your question. But again, remember that tariff cost isn't going to start hitting us until well into the third quarter.

是的。戴夫，關於你剛才做的計算，我唯一想說的是，記住，關稅成本要到第三季末才會對我們造成影響。它將開始襲擊我們。所以我認為你的運行率數字是正確的。但同樣，這只是我們有價格而不是關稅成本的一段時間。它並不像整個季度或很長一段時間。我不確定這是否回答了你的問題。但再次提醒，請記住，關稅成本要到第三季才會開始對我們造成影響。

I assume it was a timing issue. And then to the previous question on shelf prices, and you talked about prices to your customers. Is there a disconnect between those things? Are you able to go and raise price to the retailer and then they don't change shelf price for a time? Or are those more in lockstep?

我認為這是一個時間問題。然後回答之前關於貨架價格的問題，您談到了給客戶的價格。這些事情之間是否有脫節？您是否可以向零售商提高價格，然後他們在一段時間內不改變貨架價格？或者它們更加一致？

And then I guess if all goes well, based on the timing you just discussed, do you expect to be ahead of tariffs in the third quarter, meaning you over-earned, I think you kind of implied that? But then you'll hit sort of price cost neutrality as the tariffs fully flow in and the price changes fully flow in. But by the time you get to the fourth quarter of '25, those will be matched up as well as you can based on what you know currently about tariff pricing?

然後我想如果一切進展順利的話，根據您剛才討論的時間安排，您是否預計第三季度的關稅會領先於其他因素，這意味著您賺得太多，我想您暗示了這一點？但隨著關稅和價格變動的全面實施，你就會達到某種價格成本中立。但是到 25 年第四季度，根據您目前對關稅定價的了解，這些將會盡可能地匹配嗎？

Yeah. So Dave, the last question that you asked there. That is accurate. That's the way to look at the benefit in Q3 and then we're at parity, if you will, or alignment in Q4. So that's the right way to think about it. As far as pricing in retailers, I mean, each retailer is going to be different depending on their accounting and how they operate.

是的。那麼戴夫，這是你問的最後一個問題。確實如此。這就是看待第三季收益的方式，然後我們將在第四季度達到平價或一致。這是正確的思考方式。至於零售商的定價，我的意思是，每個零售商的定價都會有所不同，這取決於他們的會計和經營方式。

So in fairness, I don't think it's my place to comment on how and when you'll see that -- the pricing at the shelf. But we partner with our customers. They are fair and balanced and not easy conversations for any of the companies or our sales teams they're having the conversations with our customers. But we're aligned with them, and we're working with them to either deal with price or mitigate cost through country of org changes. So that's how we're running the business. So that's about as far as I can go.

因此公平地說，我認為我沒有資格評論您何時以及如何看到貨架上的定價。但我們與客戶合作。這些對話是公平、公正的，對於任何公司或我們的銷售團隊來說，與客戶的對話都不是輕鬆的。但我們與他們保持一致，並與他們合作解決價格問題或透過組織國家變更來降低成本。這就是我們經營業務的方式。這就是我所能說的極限了。

Very good. Thank you.

非常好。謝謝。

Thank you. Take care.

謝謝。小心。

Reuben Garner, Benchmark.

魯本·加納，基準。

Thank you. Good morning, guys. Congrats on the strong results and outlook. I guess, let's see, I had some technical difficulties to start if I repeat any questions. But on -- so the pricing and volume outlook for the back half, is it right to assume that the pricing is probably more like in the low teens within the hardware section, and that's where you're implying you're going to see most of the -- excuse me, Hardware and Protective section, and that's where you're going to see most of the declines in volume or what you're implying? And then can you tell us when the pricing actually went into place and what you've seen from a volume standpoint since then?

謝謝。大家早安。恭喜您取得的出色成果和良好的前景。我想，讓我們看看，如果我重複任何問題，我會遇到一些技術困難。但是 - 那麼下半年的價格和銷售前景，是否可以假設硬體部分的定價可能更像十幾歲的低位，這就是你暗示你將看到的大部分 - 對不起，硬體和保護部分，這就是你將看到銷量大部分下降的地方，或者你暗示的是什麼？然後您能否告訴我們定價何時真正生效，以及自那時以來從銷售角度來看的情況如何？

Yeah. Let me take the first part, and I'll let JMA take the second part, Reuben. Yeah, I mean, there is more pricing in HPS than there would be, and as an example, RDS or Canada, and that reason is because there are more tariff direct impact on those businesses. And then I'll start, JMA, but the pricing, some is in place. Some is going in place, some went in place last week. Some went in place as we speak. But basically, every customer, every product is different. And so we deal with it on a case-by-case basis. But as we sit today, we're confident that we have our tariff exposure covered. [Thanks, again].

是的。讓我來負責第一部分，然後讓 JMA 負責第二部分，魯本。是的，我的意思是，HPS 的定價比 RDS 或加拿大的定價要高，原因是關稅對這些企業的直接影響更大。然後我將開始，JMA，但定價有些已經到位。有些正在進行中，有些已在上週完成。有些人就在我們說話的時候就到位了。但基本上，每個客戶、每個產品都是不同的。因此我們會根據具體情況來處理。但就今天而言，我們有信心我們已經涵蓋了關稅風險。[再次感謝]。

Got it. And then I know you've been working on mitigation efforts. Can you give any update or details there, still on track to get it down -- at least get China down to 20%. What kind of markets are you taking it to? And what are the tariff implications in those markets based on what you know today? I know it's fluid, but --

知道了。我知道你一直在努力做出緩解努力。您能否提供任何最新消息或詳細信息，是否仍有望將其降低 - 至少將中國降至 20%。您要將它帶往什麼樣的市場？根據您目前所了解的情況，這些市場的關稅影響是什麼？我知道它很流暢，但是--

Yeah, it's fluid. I'll give you a couple of nuggets, Reuben. From our perspective, we feel like we're in very good shape with our movement of product out of China and our dual faucet strategy. So we do still have -- we have confidence that we have the ability to be approximately 20% out of China by year-end. We are moving into, pick a name of the country, I mean, these are not in volume order, but places like Thailand, Vietnam, India or a few that would benefit from the moves that we're making right now.

是的，它是流動的。我會給你一些小建議，魯本。從我們的角度來看，我們認為將產品運出中國以及實施雙水龍頭策略的狀況非常好。因此，我們仍然有信心，到今年年底，我們有能力將約 20% 的業務撤出中國。我們正在進入一個國家，我的意思是，這些國家不是按數量排序的，而是泰國、越南、印度或一些將從我們現在採取的行動中受益的地方。

Our product and our operations teams are doing a great job, sourcing team doing a great job working with those suppliers. We've had opportunities that we've been developing over the last several years that now we're going to start moving volume to. We have other new opportunities that we'll be moving to.

我們的產品和營運團隊表現出色，採購團隊與供應商的合作也非常出色。過去幾年來，我們一直在開發機會，現在我們要開始擴大規模。我們還有其他新的機會，我們將會繼續努力。

It is fluid. Like you said, as things settle down and we see where the best place for us to have the most competitive product for our customers and the best value and the right quality is what will end up making a determination of where will round out.

它是流體。就像你說的，隨著事情逐漸穩定下來，我們就會知道哪裡是我們能夠為客戶提供最具競爭力的產品、最佳價值和正確品質的最佳地點，最終將決定在哪裡取得成功。

So we will have a lot to update you and everyone else on in future quarters. But it is fluid, and I'm actually really proud of what the team is doing in the partnership with our customers to make sure that we can take care of our customers and ultimately our end users. So a lot of moving pieces.

因此，在未來的幾個季度裡，我們將有很多資訊向您和其他人更新。但它是流動的，我實際上對團隊在與客戶的合作中所做的事情感到非常自豪，以確保我們能夠照顧好我們的客戶並最終照顧好我們的最終用戶。有很多移動的部分。

Great. Thanks, guys. Good luck.

偉大的。謝謝大家。祝你好運。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm showing no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Adinolfi for closing remarks.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，隊列中沒有其他問題了。現在我想把發言時間交還給阿迪諾爾菲先生，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. We look forward to updating you on our progress soon. Hope everybody has a great day. Take care. Operator, you may now disconnect.

感謝大家今天上午加入我們。我們期待很快向您通報我們的進展。祝大家有個愉快的一天。小心。接線員，您現在可以斷開連接了。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。