Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the third-quarter 2025 results presentation for Hillman Solutions Corp. My name is Tanya, and I'll be your conference call operator today. Before we begin, I would like to remind our listeners that today's presentation is being recorded and simultaneously webcast.

早安，歡迎參加希爾曼解決方案公司2025年第三季業績發表會。我是Tanya，今天將擔任這次電話會議的接線生。在開始之前，我想提醒各位聽眾，今天的演講將進行錄製並同時進行網路直播。

The company's earnings release, presentation and 10-Q were issued this morning. These documents and a replay of today's presentation can be accessed on Hillman's Investor Relations website at ir.hillmangroup.com.

該公司今天上午發布了盈利報告、簡報和 10-Q 表格。這些文件和今天演示的回放可以在希爾曼投資者關係網站 ir.hillmangroup.com 上查閱。

I would now like to turn the call over to Michael Koehler with Hillman.

現在我想把電話交給希爾曼公司的麥可‧科勒。

Thank you, Tanya. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Hillman's third-quarter 2025 Results Presentation. I'm Michael Koehler, Vice President of Investor Relations, and Treasury. Joining me on today's call are Hillman's President and Chief Executive Officer, Jon Michael Adinolfi, or JMA as we call him; and our Chief Financial Officer, Rocky Kraft. I would like to remind our audience that certain statements made today may be considered forward-looking and are subject to the safe harbor provisions of applicable securities laws.

謝謝你，塔尼亞。各位早安，感謝各位參加希爾曼公司2025年第三季業績發表會。我是邁克爾·科勒，投資者關係和財務副總裁。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有希爾曼公司總裁兼首席執行官喬恩·邁克爾·阿迪諾爾菲（我們都稱他為JMA）和首席財務官羅基·克拉夫特。我想提醒各位聽眾，今天所作的某些陳述可能被視為前瞻性陳述，並受適用證券法安全港條款的約束。

These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, assumptions, and other factors, many of which are beyond the company's control and may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in such statements. Some of the factors that could influence our results are contained in our periodic and annual reports filed with the SEC.

這些前瞻性陳述並非對未來績效的保證，並且受到某些風險、不確定性、假設和其他因素的影響，其中許多因素超出公司的控制範圍，並可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中預測的結果有重大差異。影響我們績效的一些因素已包含在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告和年度報告中。

For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties, please see slide 2 in our earnings call slide presentation, which is available on our website. In addition on today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding our use of and reconciliations of these measures to our GAAP results are available in our earnings call slide presentation.

有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們財報電話會議幻燈片演示文稿中的第 2 張幻燈片，該演示文稿可在我們的網站上找到。此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們將提及一些非GAAP財務指標。有關我們如何使用這些指標以及這些指標與 GAAP 結果的調節信息，請參閱我們的盈利電話會議幻燈片演示文稿。

JMA will begin today's call by providing some commentary on our record third-quarter results, briefly hit on our guidance and discuss our performance by business segment. Rocky will then give a more detailed walk through our financial results and guidance before turning the call back over to JMA for some closing comments. Then we will open up the call for your questions. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Jon Michael Adinolfi. JMA?

JMA將在今天的電話會議上首先對我們創紀錄的第三季度業績進行一些評論，簡要介紹我們的業績指引，並按業務部門討論我們的業績表現。接下來，Rocky 將更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現和指導意見，然後再將電話轉回給 JMA，請他做一些總結性發言。接下來我們將開放提問環節。現在我很高興將電話轉交給我們的總裁兼執行長喬恩·邁克爾·阿迪諾爾菲。日本氣象廳？

Thanks, Michael. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. The third-quarter of 2025 was a record quarter for Hillman. We recognized the highest net sales and adjusted EBITDA of any quarter in our company's 61-year history. Net sales for the quarter increased 8%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 36% and our leverage improved to 2.5 times versus 2.7 times a quarter ago.

謝謝你，麥可。各位早安，感謝各位的參與。2025 年第三季是 Hillman 公司創紀錄的一個季度。我們實現了公司 61 年歷史上最高的季度淨銷售額和調整後 EBITDA。本季淨銷售額成長8%。調整後 EBITDA 成長 36%，槓桿率從上一季的 2.7 倍改善至 2.5 倍。

These outstanding results were driven by our team's commitment to taking great care of our customers, successfully navigating the current tariff environment, and operating efficiently across our global supply chain. I'm especially proud of this team because we accomplished these great results despite market volume headwinds and tariff volatility. Our results for the year-to-date period have been strong. We are positioned well to build off this strength and expect to see continued growth for the remainder of 2025 and for 2026.

這些卓越的成果得益於我們團隊致力於為客戶提供優質服務，成功應對當前的關稅環境，並在全球供應鏈中高效運作。我為這個團隊感到格外自豪，因為儘管面臨市場交易量逆風和關稅波動，我們仍然取得了這些優異的成績。今年迄今為止，我們的業績表現強勁。我們已做好充分準備，鞏固這一優勢，並預計在 2025 年剩餘時間和 2026 年將繼續保持成長。

For the first time in a long time, we are encouraged with some of the leading macro indicators. For example, 30-year mortgages are down 50 basis points lower since last quarter. We are hopeful that lower rates, coupled with the elevated level of existing homes currently for sale will help drive existing home sales in the near future. Based on our performance so far this year and our expectations for the rest of the year, we are reiterating our full year 2025 net sales guidance and increasing the midpoint of our full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance. We maintain our expectation that our full year 2025 net sales will be between $1.535 billion to $1.575 billion, with a midpoint of $1.555 billion.

多年來，我們首次對一些主要宏觀經濟指標感到鼓舞。例如，30 年期抵押貸款利率較上一季下降了 50 個基點。我們希望較低的利率，加上目前待售房屋數量較多，將有助於在不久的將來推動二手房銷售。根據我們今年迄今的業績以及對今年剩餘時間的預期，我們重申 2025 年全年淨銷售額預期，並提高 2025 年全年調整後 EBITDA 預期的中位數。我們仍預期 2025 年全年淨銷售額將在 15.35 億美元至 15.75 億美元之間，中間值為 15.55 億美元。

The low end of our net sales guidance represents 4% growth over 2024 and the high end of our guidance represents 7% growth over 2024. As for our bottom line, we are increasing the low end of our guidance and now expect full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be between $270 million to $275 million with a midpoint of $272.5 million. The low end of our 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance represents 12.7% growth over 2024 and the high end of our guidance represents 14% growth over last year.

我們淨銷售額預期下限代表 2024 年成長 4%，上限代表 2024 年成長 7%。至於我們的獲利預期，我們提高了預期下限，現在預計 2025 年全年調整後 EBITDA 將在 2.7 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間，中位數為 2.725 億美元。我們對 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 的預期下限為比 2024 年成長 12.7%，預期上限為去年成長 14%。

These numbers are very consistent with our long-term algorithm and as we have said many times, we get there many different ways, but this business delivers in just about any environment. Since our founding in 1964, Hillman has built a long and consistent track record.

這些數字與我們的長期演算法非常一致，正如我們多次所說，我們有很多不同的方法可以實現目標，但這項業務幾乎在任何環境下都能取得成功。自 1964 年成立以來，希爾曼公司取得了長期穩定的表現。

Over the decades, we have proven our ability to perform through every kind of economic cycle from periods of expansion to times of uncertainty. The durability of our business model comes from the essential nature of our products. Our 112,000 SKUs are generally tied to everyday repair, maintenance, and home improvement projects. These projects need to be done during good times and difficult times. As a result, we have delivered steady, resilient performance for more than 60 years.

幾十年來，我們已經證明了我們有能力應對各種經濟週期，從經濟擴張期到經濟不確定時期。我們商業模式的持久性源自於我們產品的本質特性。我們的 112,000 個 SKU 通常與日常維修、保養和家居裝修項目相關。這些項目需要在順境和逆境中都進行。因此，我們在過去60多年一直保持著穩定、穩健的業績。

Many would argue that the last three years have been a difficult market in our space with existing home sales hovering around $4 million annually. This is about 20% below the 10-year average of over 5 million single-family existing homes sold in the US. How has Hillman performed during this time?

許多人認為，過去三年我們所處的市場環境十分艱難，二手房年銷售額徘徊在 400 萬美元左右。這比美國過去 10 年平均售出的 500 多萬套獨棟現有住宅的數量低了約 20%。希爾曼在這段時間的表現如何？

Compared to where we were just three years ago, we have increased our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA at a 10% CAGR, totaling over $70 million, paid down over $240 million of debt while reducing our leverage over two full turns and successfully executed and integrated two acquisitions. These outstanding results demonstrate the resilience of Hillman's model and the ability of this team to execute well in any environment.

與三年前相比，我們過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 以 10% 的複合年增長率增長，總計超過 7000 萬美元，償還了超過 2.4 億美元的債務，並在兩個完整的周期內降低了槓桿率，並成功執行和整合了兩項收購。這些傑出的成果證明了希爾曼模型的韌性，以及團隊在任何環境下都能出色執行的能力。

You've heard us say that we are a good business when things are good and a surprisingly good business when things have been challenging. The last three years have proved this. Hillman is a great company with a long track record of success. We have an experienced team that has been battle tested, great relations with our customers who are the best in the business at what they do and a world-class distribution network. We believe when the market turns, we will be positioned for outsized growth at both the top and bottom line.

您一定聽我們說過，順境時我們是一家不錯的公司，逆境時我們更是一家出人意料的好公司。過去三年已經證明了這一點。Hillman是一家非常優秀的公司，擁有悠久的成功歷史。我們擁有一支經驗豐富、久經沙場的團隊，與客戶保持著良好的關係（我們的客戶都是業界頂尖的），並且擁有世界一流的分銷網絡。我們相信，當市場好轉時，我們將做好充分準備，實現營收和利潤的超額成長。

Our growth and performance have been powered by our competitive moat and the long-term customer relationships that are unmatched in our space. The Hillman moat includes our secret sauce of 1,200 dedicated sales and service reps working directly in our customer stores, our best-in-class direct-to-store delivery capabilities, category management expertise, and retail partnerships that are embedded and strategic. These make Hillman an indispensable partner to our customers.

我們之所以能夠取得如此成長和優異的業績，得益於我們強大的競爭優勢和在業界無與倫比的長期客戶關係。Hillman 的護城河包括我們的秘訣：1200 名敬業的銷售和服務代表直接在客戶門市工作；我們一流的門市直達配送能力；品類管理專業知識；以及根深蒂固且具有戰略意義的零售合作夥伴關係。這些優勢使希爾曼成為我們客戶不可或缺的合作夥伴。

To date, we have successfully managed the current tariff environment, which continues to evolve. Thanks to our team's hard work, we have fully covered the increased costs associated with higher tariffs. We continue to execute our dual faucet strategy where we buy products from multiple suppliers in multiple countries. At the end of the quarter, we held our annual supplier conference in Vietnam.

迄今為止，我們已成功應對了當前不斷變化的關稅環境。由於我們團隊的辛勤工作，我們已經完全彌補了關稅上漲帶來的額外成本。我們繼續執行雙通路採購策略，即從多個國家的多個供應商採購產品。季度末，我們在越南舉辦了年度供應商大會。

Our sourcing team and I met with many of our top suppliers. This annual event serves as an important in-person touch point to strengthen relationships with our supplier partners, which is especially important given the environment. Meeting face-to-face offers our long-term and new supplier partners a fresh view of Hillman's near-term objectives and how we can work together to achieve our long-term goals.

我和採購團隊會見了我們許多頂級供應商。鑑於當前的環境，這項年度活動為我們提供了一個重要的面對面交流機會，以加強與供應商合作夥伴的關係，這一點尤其重要。面對面的會面能讓我們的長期和新供應商合作夥伴對希爾曼的近期目標以及我們如何共同努力實現長期目標有全新的認識。

As we have seen throughout this year, changes in tariff policy can shift the market rapidly. The flexible supply chain we have built allows us to react to these changes so that we can always deliver high-quality products to our customers at the best value.

正如我們今年所看到的，關稅政策的變化可以迅速改變市場。我們建立的靈活供應鏈使我們能夠應對這些變化，從而始終以最優價格為客戶提供高品質的產品。

Managing tariffs has been a big effort for our team, but we have not lost focus on taking great care of our customers, winning new business, and consistently striving to make our operations more efficient. We continue to deliver orders on time and in full to our customers, which have been demonstrated by excellent fill rates, which have been above 95% this year. Now let's turn to results for our quarter.

關稅管理對我們的團隊來說是一項巨大的挑戰，但我們始終沒有放鬆對客戶的關懷，努力贏得新業務，並不斷努力提高營運效率。我們繼續按時、足量地向客戶交付訂單，今年的訂單完成率一直保持在 95% 以上，這充分證明了我們的出色表現。現在讓我們來看看本季的業績。

Net sales in the third-quarter of 2025 totaled $424.9 million, which increased 8% versus the third-quarter of last year. Driving our robust top line was a 10-point increase from price, 2-points from Intex, which we acquired during August of 2024 and 2 points from new business wins. These were partially offset by a six-point headwind from market volumes, which was consistent with our expectations. For the quarter, adjusted EBITDA increased 36% to $88 million compared to $64.8 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA margins improved by 420 basis points to 20.7%.

2025 年第三季淨銷售額總計 4.249 億美元，比去年第三季成長 8%。推動我們強勁營收成長的因素有：價格上漲 10 個百分點，收購 Intex 帶來 2 個百分點的成長（我們在 2024 年 8 月收購了 Intex），以及贏得新業務帶來 2 個百分點的成長。市場成交量下降 6 個百分點，部分抵銷了上述不利因素，但這與我們的預期一致。本季調整後 EBITDA 成長 36% 至 8,800 萬美元，而去年同期為 6,480 萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 420 個基點，達到 20.7%。

Adjusted gross margin for the quarter totaled 51.7%. This marks a 350 basis point improvement from 48.2% during the third -- the year ago quarter and a 340 basis point improvement from 48.3% last quarter. Driving our year-over-year sequential margin performance were both improved contributions from RDS and benefit from price cost timing. Our biggest segment, Hardware and Protective Solutions or HPS, had a great quarter with 10% growth versus the comparable period. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 57.3% to $65.8 million.

本季調整後毛利率總計為 51.7%。這比去年同期的 48.2% 提高了 350 個基點，比上一季的 48.3% 提高了 340 個基點。推動我們較去年同期成長率成長的因素既包括 RDS 的貢獻增加，也包括價格成本時機帶來的效益。我們最大的業務部門——硬體和防護解決方案（HPS）——本季表現出色，與去年同期相比成長了 10%。調整後 EBITDA 成長 57.3%，達到 6,580 萬美元。

Our results were driven by contributions from Intex, new business wins and price cost, partially offset by a 5.5% decline in HPS market volume. Net sales in Robotics and Digital Solutions, or RDS, were up 3.3% versus the year ago quarter. This is our third consecutive growth quarter for RDS and again illustrated the successful rollout of our Mini Key 3.5 strategy.

我們的業績主要得益於 Intex 的貢獻、新業務的贏得以及價格成本，但部分被 HPS 市場銷量下降 5.5% 所抵消。機器人和數位解決方案（RDS）業務的淨銷售額比去年同期成長了3.3%。這是 RDS 連續第三個季度實現成長，再次證明了我們的 Mini Key 3.5 策略的成功推出。

Adjusted gross margins and adjusted EBITDA margins were both near their historic norms, totaling 74.2% and 31.4%, respectively. As of today, we have over 3,000 Mini Key 3.5 machines in the field, an increase of over 800 during the last three months. We remain on track to finalize the rollout of these kiosks to our two largest customers by the end of 2026.

調整後的毛利率和經調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率均接近歷史正常水平，分別為 74.2% 和 31.4%。截至今日，我們已有超過 3,000 台 Mini Key 3.5 機器投入使用，比上個月增加了 800 多台。我們仍按計劃推進，並將於 2026 年底前向我們最大的兩個客戶完成這些自助服務終端的推廣。

Turning to Canada. Net sales in our Canadian business were nearly flat, down just 0.2% compared to the prior year quarter. New business wins were partially offset by another quarter of soft market volumes and FX remained a headwind. We continue to expect that adjusted EBITDA margins will remain above 10% in Canada.

轉向加拿大。我們在加拿大的業務淨銷售額幾乎持平，與去年同期相比僅下降了 0.2%。新業務的成長被市場交易量連續第二季疲軟所部分抵消，外匯波動仍是不利因素。我們仍預期加拿大調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將維持在 10% 以上。

Overall, this was a great quarter. Hillman's disciplined operations, strong execution and healthy customer relationships position us to continue delivering consistent results in this or just about any environment. With that, let me turn it over to Rocky to talk financials and guidance. Rocky?

總體而言，這是一個非常棒的季度。Hillman 嚴謹的營運、強大的執行力和良好的客戶關係使我們能夠在當前或幾乎任何環境下繼續取得穩定的業績。接下來，我將把發言權交給洛基，讓他來談談財務和指導的問題。洛奇？

Thanks, JMA. Let's get right to our results, then we'll review our guidance. Net sales in the third-quarter of 2025 totaled $424.9 million, an increase of 8% versus the prior year quarter. Our top line results were a record for Hillman, marking the highest net sales of any quarter in our 61-year history. Third-quarter adjusted gross margin increased by 350 basis points to 51.7% versus the prior year quarter and improved 340 basis points sequentially.

謝謝，JMA。讓我們直接來看結果，然後再回顧我們的指導。2025 年第三季淨銷售額總計 4.249 億美元，較上年同期成長 8%。我們的營收業績創下希爾曼公司歷史新高，淨銷售額達到公司 61 年歷史上的最高季度水準。第三季調整後毛利率較上年同期成長 350 個基點至 51.7%，較上年同期成長 340 個基點。

Adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales decreased to 31% during the quarter from 32% in the year ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA in the third-quarter totaled $88 million, improving 36% versus the year ago quarter. This also marked the highest adjusted EBITDA of any quarter in our 61-year history. Recall that last year, we revised our presentation of adjusted EBITDA to include a $7.8 million write-off of receivables from True Value during Q3. Even excluding the revision, adjusted EBITDA still increased over 21%.

經調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比從去年同期的 32% 下降至本季的 31%。第三季調整後 EBITDA 總計 8,800 萬美元，比去年同期成長 36%。這也標誌著我們61年歷史上任何一個季度的調整後EBITDA最高。回想一下，去年我們修改了調整後 EBITDA 的列報方式，將第三季 True Value 應收帳款的 780 萬美元註銷計入其中。即使不計入修訂，調整後的 EBITDA 仍成長超過 21%。

Adjusted EBITDA to net sales margin during the quarter improved by 420 basis points to 20.7%. We saw price increases read through our income statement throughout the quarter, while tariffs began to burden our cost of goods sold toward the end of the quarter. This price cost dynamic -- timing dynamic drove record results for Hillman and should begin to normalize next quarter. Now let me spend a minute on cash flows.

本季調整後的 EBITDA 與淨銷售額比率提高了 420 個基點，達到 20.7%。整個季度，我們的損益表都顯示出價格上漲的趨勢，而到了季度末，關稅開始加重我們的銷售成本。這種價格成本動態和時間動態推動了希爾曼公司取得創紀錄的業績，預計下個季度將開始恢復正常。現在讓我花一分鐘時間談談現金流。

For the quarter, net cash provided by operating activities was $26.2 million and we generated $9.1 million of free cash flow. Impacting our free cash flow for the quarter was about $30 million of tariff-related costs. At the end of the third-quarter, we had about $60 million of new tariffs in our inventory.

本季度，經營活動產生的淨現金為 2,620 萬美元，自由現金流為 910 萬美元。本季影響我們自由現金流的因素包括約 3,000 萬美元的關稅相關成本。第三季末，我們的庫存中約有 6,000 萬美元的新關稅。

Turning to leverage and liquidity. We ended the third-quarter of 2025 with $672 million of total net debt outstanding, which was (technical difficulty) by $3 million from the end of the second-quarter. Liquidity available totaled $277 million, consisting of $239 million of availability on our credit facility and $38 million of cash and cash equivalents.

轉向槓桿和流動性。截至 2025 年第三季末，我們的未償淨負債總額為 6.72 億美元，比第二季末減少了 300 萬美元（技術性錯誤）。可用流動資金總額為 2.77 億美元，其中包括我們信貸額度中的 2.39 億美元和 3,800 萬美元的現金及現金等價物。

At the quarter end, our net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 2.5 times versus 2.7 times a quarter ago and 2.8 times at the end of 2024. We have now reached our long-term adjusted EBITDA to net leverage ratio target, which is at or below 2.5 times. We will continue to pay down debt while we evaluate M&A opportunities and use our improved financial strength to play offense. As we announced last quarter, our Board approved a $100 million share repurchase program. This marks the first time Hillman has an active SRP in place since coming public in 2021.

截至季末，我們的淨負債與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率改善至 2.5 倍，而上一季為 2.7 倍，2024 年底為 2.8 倍。我們現在已經達到了長期調整後 EBITDA 與淨槓桿率的目標，即 2.5 倍或更低。我們將繼續償還債務，同時評估併購機會，並利用我們增強的財務實力採取積極主動的策略。正如我們在上個季度宣布的那樣，我們的董事會批准了一項 1 億美元的股票回購計畫。這是希爾曼自 2021 年上市以來首次實施有效的 SRP。

During the third-quarter of 2025, we deployed $3.2 million to buy back 326,000 shares at an average price of $9.72 per share. We continue to be in the market buying stock. Our SRP activity during Q3 and since falls in line with our anticipated $20 million to $25 million annual spend buying back stock.

2025 年第三季度，我們投入 320 萬美元，以每股 9.72 美元的平均價格回購了 326,000 股股票。我們將繼續在市場上買入股票。我們在第三季及之後的 SRP 活動與我們預期每年 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元的股票回購支出相符。

Our objective here is to offset any dilution caused by employee equity grants and opportunistically buy stock should we feel there is a meaningful discount between the value of Hillman and where our stock is trading. We believe these repurchases will be accretive to earnings per share, drive shareholder value and are an attractive place to deploy capital.

我們的目標是抵消員工股權激勵造成的任何股權稀釋，並在我們認為 Hillman 的價值與我們股票的交易價格之間存在顯著折扣時，伺機買入股票。我們相信這些股票回購將增加每股收益，提升股東價值，並且是部署資本的理想選擇。

Now to our guidance. We are reiterating our top line guidance of $1.535 billion to $1.575 billion, with a midpoint of $1.555 billion, reflecting 5.6% growth over last year. For the full year, the growth at the midpoint of our guide is driven by about six points of price, three points from Intex and two points from new business wins, which are partially offset by a six-point headwind from market volumes.

現在輪到我們的指導了。我們重申營收預期為 15.35 億美元至 15.75 億美元，中間值為 15.55 億美元，較去年成長 5.6%。全年來看，我們指南中點的成長主要由物價上漲推動約 6 個百分點，Intex 上漲推動約 3 個百分點，新業務成長推動約 2 個百分點，但這些成長被市場銷售下降帶來的 6 個百分點的不利因素部分抵銷。

For the second half of the year, we anticipate about 11 points of price, 1 point from Intex and 2 points from new business wins, which are partially offset by a 7-point headwind from market volumes. For the bottom line, we are increasing the low end of our adjusted EBITDA guidance by $5 million.

下半年，我們預期價格上漲約 11 個百分點，Intex 上漲約 1 個百分點，新業務成長約 2 個百分點，但市場銷售下降將部分抵銷這些成長，帶來 7 個百分點的不利影響。總而言之，我們將調整後 EBITDA 預期下限提高 500 萬美元。

This raises the midpoint as the top end remains unchanged. Our increased adjusted EBITDA guidance is now between $270 million and $275 million, with the midpoint of $272.5 million, reflecting 12.7% growth over last year and a $2.5 million increase from our previous guide. Our expectation remains that we will end the year around 2.4 times leverage. As we discussed, the price cost timing dynamic drove record results for Hillman during the third-quarter. Now during the fourth-quarter, we will see price increases fully reflected while tariffs burden our cost of goods sold.

這樣一來，中點就提高了，而上限保持不變。我們上調後的調整後 EBITDA 預期值目前在 2.7 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間，中位數為 2.725 億美元，較去年增長 12.7%，較我們先前的預期增加 250 萬美元。我們仍預期今年年底槓桿率將達到 2.4 倍左右。正如我們所討論的那樣，價格、成本和時間因素的動態變化推動了希爾曼在第三季度取得創紀錄的業績。現在到了第四季度，我們將看到價格上漲完全反​​映出來，而關稅也會加重我們的銷售成本。

The result of this will be a step down in adjusted gross margin rate, which will look similar to our gross margins during the second-quarter of this year. Before I turn it back to JMA, I want to thank the whole team for delivering such a strong quarter with solid growth on both the top and bottom line. We are confident we can keep this momentum going through 2026 by staying disciplined and focused on our key priorities. That said, with flat market volumes, we expect full year 2026 net sales to grow in the high single to low double digits. The increase will be driven by rollover price and new business wins.

這將導致調整後的毛利率下降，與我們今年第二季的毛利率類似。在把話題轉回JMA之前，我要感謝整個團隊，感謝他們在本季取得如此強勁的業績，營收和利潤都實現了穩健成長。我們有信心，只要保持自律，專注於我們的關鍵優先事項，就能將這種勢頭保持到 2026 年。也就是說，在市場銷售持平的情況下，我們預計 2026 年全年淨銷售額將實現高個位數到低兩位數的成長。此次成長將主要由價格延續和新業務拓展推動。

However, the price cost timing dynamic we are benefiting from now presents a difficult margin comp next year. Further, we expect adjusted EBITDA to grow next year in the low to mid-single digit range, assuming no change to the current tariff environment. We will give our detailed full year 2026 guidance during our Q4 earnings call next February.

然而，我們目前所受益的價格成本時機動態，明年將帶來難以比較的利潤率。此外，我們預計，在當前關稅環境不變的情況下，明年調整後的 EBITDA 將實現低至中等個位數的成長。我們將在明年2月的第四季財報電話會議上給予2026年全年的詳細業績指引。

The numbers I just provided are directional as we are not predicting what market volumes will be next year at this time. Hillman is in a great position to build on this success, continue growing with our customers and drive long-term value for our shareholders through the rest of this year and beyond. JMA, back to you.

我剛剛提供的數字僅供參考，因為我們目前無法預測明年的市場交易量。Hillman 處於非常有利的地位，可以鞏固這一成功，繼續與客戶共同成長，並在今年餘下的時間裡以及未來為股東創造長期價值。JMA，把鏡頭交還給你。

Thanks, Rocky. We are pleased with our results so far this year and are very excited about the future. We continue to work on ways to grow our business within our four walls of our existing customers and beyond. Before we wrap up, I want to once again thank the entire Hillman team for an outstanding quarter. Your hard work and commitment continue to drive great results, strong growth, solid execution, and momentum.

謝謝你，洛基。我們對今年迄今的成績感到滿意，並對未來充滿期待。我們將繼續努力，在現有客戶群內外拓展業務。在結束之前，我想再次感謝希爾曼團隊全體成員，感謝他們本季的出色表現。你們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神持續推動著優異的成績、強勁的成長、穩健的執行和良好的發展勢頭。

As we look ahead, we're confident in our ability to keep the momentum going. We're focused, disciplined, and aligned around the correct priorities, growing with our customers, strengthening our partnerships, and creating long-lasting value for our shareholders. Hillman is in a great position and the opportunities in front of us are exciting. I'm incredibly proud of what this team has accomplished so far this year and even more excited about what's ahead. With that, I'll turn it back to the operator for the Q&A portion of the call.

展望未來，我們有信心保持這一發展勢頭。我們目標明確、紀律嚴明、行動一致，與客戶共同成長，加強合作關係，為股東創造持久價值。希爾曼目前處境優越，擺在我們面前的機會令人振奮。我為這支隊伍今年迄今所取得的成就感到無比自豪，也對未來的發展充滿期待。接下來，我將把電話轉回給接線生，進行問答環節。

Tanya, please open the call for questions.

Tanya，請開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Lee Jagoda, CJS Securities.

李雅戈達，CJS證券。

It's Pete Lucas for Lee. I guess starting out, have you seen any competitive opportunities or pressures as a result of other suppliers to your customers and their actions around willingness or ability to import product that could be changing the competitive landscape out there?

李的對手是皮特·盧卡斯。我想，在你創業初期，你是否看到過其他供應商因為你的客戶以及他們在產品進口意願或能力方面的行動而帶來的競爭機會或壓力，這些行動可能會改變當前的競爭格局？

I mean, from what we're seeing right now, we actually have quite a few different business opportunities that we're quoting on. We're excited about our new business opportunities that will cascade into 2026. So yes, we do see opportunities in the market where we've seen some competitors that have seen some challenges operating in this environment. So yes, we're excited about 2026 and what's ahead of us.

我的意思是，就我們目前所看到的，我們實際上有很多不同的商業機會正在洽談中。我們對即將延續到 2026 年的新商機感到興奮。是的，我們確實看到了市場上的機遇，而我們也看到一些競爭對手在這種環境下營運面臨一些挑戰。是的，我們對 2026 年以及未來的發展充滿期待。

That's great. And in terms of -- what have you seen in terms of order patterns from your largest retail customers in the last month or two compared to sell-through?

那太棒了。那麼，在過去一兩個月裡，您從最大的零售客戶觀察到的訂單模式與銷售情況相比有何變化？

They've been very consistent. We've got great relationship with our retail partners. They're running solid businesses right now. And I think all of us are excited about the next run that will be in front of us. So we haven't seen anything out of the ordinary.

他們一直都很穩定。我們與零售合作夥伴保持著良好的關係。他們目前的業務運作狀況良好。我想我們所有人都對即將到來的下一輪比賽感到興奮。所以，我們沒有發現任何異常情況。

Great. And then just last one for me. On the -- I know you touched on it and we'll hear more about '26 later, but on the last call, you did give us a preview in terms of what kind of growth you might expect to see in '26. Given today's results and the guidance, what, if anything, has changed for your '26 view?

偉大的。最後，我還要再來一個。關於——我知道您已經提到過，我們以後還會聽到更多關於 2026 年的消息，但在上次通話中，您確實給我們預告了 2026 年您可能會看到的增長情況。根據今天的結果和指導意見，您對 2026 年的看法發生了哪些變化？

This is Rocky. Pete, absolutely nothing. I mean, we reiterated the same view that we had before. If you assume -- and again, we're not yet predicting what we think the markets will do in 2026. But if you assume those markets are flat, we believe the top line will be up high single to low double digits and that's primarily driven by rollover price and new business wins and that gives us a lot of confidence in that number.

這是洛奇。皮特，什麼都沒有。我的意思是，我們重申了先前的觀點。如果你假設——再次聲明，我們目前還沒有預測市場在 2026 年的趨勢。但假設這些市場保持平穩，我們相信營收將實現個位數高點到兩位數低點的成長，這主要得益於續約價格和新業務的贏得，這讓我們對這個數字充滿信心。

And then when you think about how that reflects down the P&L into EBITDA, that read should be kind of low single to mid-single digits on the EBITDA line. And the reason that we don't leverage in '26 like we normally do in the business is because of the kind of windfall we have for a short period of time in 2025 around tariffs.

然後，當你考慮這如何反映在損益表上的 EBITDA 時，EBITDA 項上的讀數應該是個位數低到個位數。而我們在 2026 年沒有像往常一樣利用槓桿的原因是，我們在 2025 年將因關稅問題獲得短期的意外之財。

Andrew Carter, Stifel.

安德魯卡特，斯蒂費爾。

I want to focus on the Hardware Solutions segment. Price was up 12.5%, volume down 33. Is that kind of a real-time elasticity number? Or were there any helpers to the volume? I think the new business wins were isolated to Protective Solutions.

我想專注於硬體解決方案領域。價格上漲 12.5%，成交量下降 33。這是某種即時彈性係數嗎？或者說，還有其他因素會影響音量嗎？我認為新業務的拓展僅限於 Protective Solutions 公司。

It's -- I think hardware is about as real time as you get with your retailers in terms of sales. But are there any pockets where retailers can take a little extra inventory or whatever? So I'll stop there.

我認為硬體銷售是你能從零售商那裡獲得的最即時資訊之一。但零售商是否可以在某些地方多存放一些庫存或其他物品？我就說到這裡吧。

Yes, I would say, Andrew, the short answer is yes. I mean -- but it depends. I mean, listen, we sell to a lot of different customers, we sell a lot of different products. And so every product and every customer behaves a little differently. If you think about the retail channel that we sell into, clearly, in a period of rising prices, a local hardware store is probably going to buy less inventory in the first turn of that until they see their price read through.

是的，安德魯，我的答案是肯定的。我的意思是——但這要看情況。我的意思是，聽著，我們面向許多不同的客戶群銷售產品，我們銷售很多不同的產品。因此，每種產品和每位顧客的行為方式都略有不同。如果你想想我們所處的零售通路，很明顯，在物價上漲時期，當地的五金店在最初階段可能會減少進貨量，直到他們看到價格回落為止。

When you think about folks, the big guys, we don't send a lot of product through their distribution centers, we go store direct. And so because of that, the ability to take inventory out of the channel is muted, but that doesn't mean there is not an ability to say that our big customers couldn't at times take some inventory out of the channel in a period of increasing prices would be naive.

想想那些大公司，我們不會透過他們的配送中心運送很多產品，我們會直接送到商店。因此，從渠道撤出庫存的能力受到限制，但這並不意味著我們沒有能力這樣做。如果說我們的大客戶在價格上漲時期不能從通路中撤出一些庫存，那就太天真了。

They can. That said, again, compared to someone who's living through a customer's distribution channel or through their DCs, obviously, there's a lot less impact on a business like ours because we're going store direct. So that was a long-winded way for me to say, yes, as prices are rising, there's clearly an impact with our customers around price.

他們可以。也就是說，與那些透過客戶的分銷管道或配送中心進行銷售的人相比，顯然，像我們這樣的企業受到的影響要小得多，因為我們是直接面向門市銷售。所以，我囉嗦了這麼多，其實就是想說，是的，隨著物價上漲，我們的客戶在價格方面顯然受到了影響。

As we look at POS, JMA, I mean, October felt okay and the third-quarter felt okay. I would say better than it's felt for a while and there's some green shoots, but we're still cautiously optimistic. When -- the one thing we would continue to believe, Andrew, is that we have positioned this business really well for when the market turns and we see housing return. I think when housing returns because of how well we're operating the business, we're positioned to take advantage of that.

從POS和JMA的數據來看，10月感覺還不錯，第三季也感覺不錯。我覺得情況比之前一段時間好，也出現了一些好轉的跡象，但我們仍然保持謹慎樂觀的態度。安德魯，我們始終堅信的一點是，我們已經為市場好轉、房地產市場復甦做好了充分的準備。我認為，由於我們業務運作得如此出色，當房地產市場回升時，我們已經做好了從中獲利的準備。

Rocky framed it up well. I mean, you think about the repair and maintenance side of our business, very consistent. We see some good trends. And so we see some good things setting up for 2026 and beyond. We're not changing our outlook. But Andrew, we were pleased with how the business performed in Q3.

洛奇把畫面構圖得很好。我的意思是，想想我們業務的維修和保養方面，就非常穩定了。我們看到了一些不錯的趨勢。因此，我們看到一些利好消息正在為 2026 年及以後的發展奠定基礎。我們不會改變我們的觀點。但是安德魯，我們對公司第三季的業績表現感到滿意。

A second question I would ask about kind of the tariff number. If you said in the script, I apologize, the $150 million. Is that still a good number even with some favorable changes? And from here, if we get favorability here and there, how is that going to work in kind of the pricing with retailers as well as kind of the potential implications to your P&L? Are there -- will you see favorability immediately? Will you have to wait, et cetera?

第二個問題我想問的是關於關稅編號的問題。如果你在劇本裡說了，我很抱歉，1.5億美元。即使有一些有利的變化，這個數字仍然可觀嗎？那麼，如果我們在這裡獲得一些優惠，這將如何影響與零售商的定價，以及對你的損益表可能產生的影響呢？會立即獲得青睞嗎？你需要等待嗎？等等？

Yes, I think we've not come off that -- it's approximately $150 million of total tariff in the business, Andrew. It's interesting because even last week, we saw a 10% reduction in reciprocal as an example, out of China. That said, there were a lot of things that moved in the quarter. And so we're still around that same number. To your second question around timing, to the extent there is a benefit or there are costs, it does take time to run through our inventory. And so we are delayed in whether we see the benefit or the, call it, the bad guy from the timing of tariffs.

是的，我認為我們還沒有擺脫這種情況——安德魯，這筆費用在企業中總計約 1.5 億美元。有趣的是，就在上週，我們看到來自中國的互惠貿易額下降了 10%。話雖如此，本季還是有很多事情發生了變化。所以我們現在仍然在這個數字附近。關於你提出的第二個時間問題，無論是否有收益或成本，清點庫存確實需要時間。因此，我們無法及時看到關稅實施時機帶來的好處，或者說壞處。

Rocky, that's exactly right. So for us, we're running the business, we're always going to put the right products in front of our customers from the country of origin where it makes the most sense. We're going to have the highest quality and make sure that our supply chain stays robust. So Andrew, no macro change with what you just mentioned. And candidly, there were a number of other changes, plus and minuses in tariffs over the past quarter. We don't spike those out separately.

洛基，你說得完全正確。所以對我們來說，身為企業經營者，我們始終會把最適合的產品，從原產國送到顧客面前，因為這才是最合理的。我們將確保產品品質達到最高標準，並確保供應鏈的穩健運作。所以安德魯，你剛才提到的那些並沒有什麼宏觀的變化。坦白說，過去一個季度關稅方面還有許多其他變化，既有上漲也有下跌。我們不單獨列出這些。

Reuben Garner, Benchmark.

Reuben Garner，基準。

So Rocky, those second half volume numbers, I think you said market down 7%. Are you -- do you think that the elevated price from the tariffs is driving that? Is it just broadly consumer activity? Like I don't know if you can tell, but I know you didn't raise price necessarily on every product the same, but can you tell how much the price is having an impact on the actual demand in your space?

所以洛基，關於下半年的成交量數據，我想你說過市場下降了7%。你認為關稅導致的物價上漲是造成這種情況的原因嗎？這僅僅是指廣義的消費者活動嗎？我不知道您是否能看出，我知道您並沒有對所有產品都進行相同幅度的提價，但您能看出價格上漲對您所在領域的實際需求產生了多大的影響嗎？

Yes. It is virtually impossible to figure out what's driving consumer impact, whether it's price increase or whether it's whatever other thing that's happening in the external environment. We do look at POS, we look at customer trends, but figuring out what is directly related is very difficult. The 7% is the implied number at the midpoint of our guide. I think everyone will remember the implied number in our guide in the third-quarter was down about 9% in volumes.

是的。幾乎不可能弄清楚是什麼因素導致了消費者受到的影響，是價格上漲，還是外部環境中發生的其他事情。我們會關注POS數據，也會關注客戶趨勢，但要弄清楚哪些因素與此直接相關是非常困難的。7% 是我們指南中點隱含的數字。我想大家都會記得，我們​​在第三季的業績指引中隱含的銷量數字下降了約 9%。

We did a little better than that. And our commentary around that was what we told people. It is really hard to predict what's going to happen to market volumes. We were confident that the amount of price that was going into the market that they wouldn't be down two, it will be bigger than that. And we're relatively confident it would be less than 9% and we ended the third-quarter kind of right in the middle of those numbers.

我們做得比那稍微好一點。我們當時就是這樣向人們解釋的。市場交易量將如何變化，真的很難預測。我們當時很有信心，進入市場的股價不會跌到兩個百分點，跌幅會更大。我們比較有信心這個數字會低於 9%，而第三季末的實際數字也正好在這個範圍的中間。

I think as we go into the fourth-quarter, we're cautiously optimistic that market volumes may be a little better than the guide, but we were down 6% in the third-quarter and you think about going into the fourth-quarter, could be other macro factors like even think about Christmas spending and things like that, it's probably a good number and will be in the ballpark.

我認為進入第四季度後，我們謹慎樂觀地認為市場銷量可能會略好於預期，但第三季度我們下降了 6%，考慮到進入第四季度，可能會有其他宏觀因素，例如聖誕節支出等等，所以最終的數字可能不錯，應該在預期範圍內。

Got it. And then the sequential improvement in gross margin, you mentioned RDS. Can you talk to us about how much of that improvement was from RDS versus the price cost? And then I guess, what exactly is driving the pickup in the RDS profitability?

知道了。然後是毛利率的連續改善，你提到了 RDS。您能否談談，這種改進有多少是得益於 RDS，又有多少是得益於價格成本？那麼，究竟是什麼因素推動了 RDS 盈​​餘能力的提升呢？

Yes, I mean, the largest percentage of the increase was driven by what happened with price cost. When you think about RDS, that number was up, it was up about, call it, 100 basis points in the quarter. The RDS pickup is really driven by the 3.5 rollout and what's happening there and the profitability of that business. So we feel really good about RDS, the fact that we've grown it three quarters in a row and we continue to execute on our 3.5 strategy. But again, the biggest driver of margin improvement in the quarter was the price cost dynamic.

是的，我的意思是，成長的最大部分是由價格成本的變化所造成的。考慮到 RDS，這個數字上升了，大約上升了，比如說，本季上升了 100 個基點。RDS 的成長實際上是由 3.5 的推出以及該領域正在發生的事情和該業務的盈利能力所驅動的。所以我們對 RDS 感到非常滿意，因為它已經連續三個季度實現了成長，而且我們仍在繼續執行我們的 3.5 策略。但再次強調，本季利潤率改善的最大驅動因素是價格成本動態變化。

And as we said in the prepared remarks, we expect that to come back in the fourth-quarter and we would expect the fourth-quarter gross margins to look a lot like what we saw in the second-quarter of this year.

正如我們在準備好的發言稿中所說，我們預計這種情況將在第四季度恢復，我們預計第四季度的毛利率將與今年第二季的情況非常相似。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

馬修·布雷，巴克萊銀行。

You have Elaine Ku on for Matt. I wanted to touch on pricing a little bit. So you've kind of pointed to expectations of price cost neutrality in the face of tariffs. But sort of this quarter, we've seen a sense of price fatigue where some of your peers have kind of not seen that full anticipated price realization. So just wondering, like are you experiencing any similar signs of a bit more elasticity or pushback on price than expected?

替補馬特的是伊萊恩·庫。我想稍微談談定價問題。所以你算是指出了在關稅面前，人們期望價格成本保持中立。但就本季而言，我們看到了一種價格疲勞感，有些同行似乎還沒有完全實現預期的價格。所以我想問一下，您是否也遇到過類似的情況，價格彈性或阻力比預期更大？

Or is that price kind of coming through largely according to your expectations? And just what has feedback been on just receptiveness of increases or negotiations, just anything around that?

或者說，這個價格基本上符合你的預期？那麼，對於加薪或談判等相關事宜，各方回饋如何？

Yes. It's Rocky. I'll answer the beginning of the conversation, then I'll let JMA comment on relationship with customers. I think -- it's interesting because I would tell you, it kind of went as expected with lots of twists and turns because as you can imagine, the tariff regime has changed so many times. That said, we had always told everyone that we expected price even before tariffs to be flat during the current year, but a bit of a headwind in the front half.

是的。是洛奇。我先回答對話的開頭部分，然後讓JMA就與客戶的關係發表意見。我覺得——這很有趣，因為我會告訴你，事情的發展基本上符合預期，但也經歷了很多曲折，因為你可以想像，關稅制度已經改變了很多次。也就是說，我們一直告訴大家，即使在關稅生效之前，我們也預計今年的價格將保持平穩，但上半年可能會遇到一些不利因素。

That implied that we would take some price for inflation and we did take some price for inflation in certain channels on certain products where it was necessary. So I think as you think about that, price, in my opinion and in the company's opinion, has played out about as expected. It hasn't been easy, but our customers have -- understand. They live in the same world we live in and so have been fair, I would say, relative to how price has rolled out. And JMA, do you want.

這意味著我們要承擔一定的通貨膨脹成本，而且在某些通路的某些產品上，我們也確實在必要時承擔了一些通貨膨脹成本。所以我覺得，仔細想想，價格方面，在我看來，公司方面也認為，基本上符合預期。這並不容易，但我們的客戶都理解。他們生活在我們生活的同一個世界裡，所以就價格的走勢而言，我認為他們的做法還算公平。還有JMA，你想要什麼？

Yes, Rocky. I mean, that's exactly right. I mean the customer conversations have been challenging, but they've been balanced, right? They want the same thing that we want. We want to make sure they continue to flow the supply chain right. They will need high levels of service. They want to make sure their customers are taken care of. And that's why we're doing things with our customers now. We're resetting more in this year and 2025 than we really have in record, if you will. So we're going to continue to make investments in our business.

是的，洛奇。我的意思是，完全正確。我的意思是，與客戶的溝通雖然具有挑戰性，但總體上還是平衡的，對吧？他們想要的東西和我們想要的一樣。我們希望確保他們繼續正確地維護供應鏈的暢通。他們需要高水準的服務。他們想確保客戶得到妥善照顧。這就是我們現在與客戶一起做這些事情的原因。可以說，今年和 2025 年我們將進行比以往任何一年都更加徹底的調整。因此，我們將繼續對我們的業務進行投資。

We're going to continue to keep the product flowing because we really are still excited. I won't call when it's going to happen, but when it does, we believe the home improvement market is set up for a great run. So we're excited about where we are. The conversations around price are certainly challenging, but our customers and we are aligned that we want to take care of the end user.

我們將繼續保持產品的持續供應，因為我們仍然充滿熱情。我不會預測它何時會發生，但我們相信，一旦發生，家裝市場將會迎來一段繁榮時期。所以我們對目前所處的位置感到很興奮。價格方面的討論固然具有挑戰性，但我們的客戶和我們都一致認為，我們希望照顧到最終用戶。

Great. And second to that, I guess, you had mentioned October felt okay and you're seeing some green shoots. So could you kind of elaborate more on what those green shoots are? And similar to Pete's question earlier, are you seeing any incremental new business wins just given today's market backdrop or opportunity there?

偉大的。其次，我想，你之前提到過十月份感覺還不錯，而且你看到了一些好轉的跡象。那麼，您能否詳細說明一下這些綠色嫩芽是什麼呢？與 Pete 先前提出的問題類似，鑑於當前的市場背景或機遇，您是否看到任何新增業務的出現？

Yes. So I mean, on the market, October was slightly better than what we saw in Q3. I'm not going to go into any specifics on each retailer, if you will. But Elaine, we've seen some certain categories that are what we deem to be non-elastic, if you will, actually doing decently. So just given the complexity of this call, you can understand I won't go any deeper there.

是的。所以我的意思是，從市場角度來看，10 月的情況比第三季略好。我不會詳細介紹每家零售商的具體情況。但是伊萊恩，我們看到一些我們認為缺乏彈性的類別，實際上表現得相當不錯。鑑於這通通話的複雜性，你應該能理解我不會再深入探討這個問題了。

We really think the setup as we move forward and kind of where Pete was going, we really feel like the new business wins that we have, we talked about [ACE], we talked about our chain win that we had there that's rolled out nicely in 2025 is just an example of things that we're doing. Our teams have a number of big projects in motion right now.

我們真的認為，隨著我們向前發展，以及皮特所朝著的方向前進，我們真的覺得我們取得的新業務勝利，我們談到了[ACE]，我們談到了我們在那裡贏得的連鎖店，它將在2025年順利推出，這只是我們正在做的事情的一個例子。我們的團隊目前正在進行多個大型專案。

We're going to report them out as we realize them versus getting ahead and talking about what we want to win. But we have some exciting opportunities in the hopper and we'll have more to come in future quarters.

我們將會在發現問題後立即匯報，而不是提前談論我們想要贏得什麼。但我們有一些令人興奮的機會正在醞釀中，未來幾季還會有更多機會推出。

(Operator instructions) David Manthey, Baird.

（操作說明）David Manthey，Baird。

First off, thanks for the 2026 outlook. I guess, did you say that that revenue outlook of high single, low double on the top line is in a flattish market? Is that correct?

首先，感謝您提供的 2026 年展望。我猜，您剛才的意思是，在市場趨於平穩的情況下，營收預期會是單週高成長、雙週低成長？是這樣嗎？

Yes. That is, Dave. What we keep trying to say and we're going to keep trying to say it is that assumes a flat market. At this point, sitting on November 4 to predict next year's market is tough. And so we'll let people make their own estimates. But in a flat market, that's the expectation we have.

是的。也就是說，戴夫。我們一直想表達，而且會一直想表達的是，這假設市場平穩。現在距離11月4日還有一段時間，很難預測明年的市場走勢。所以，我們將讓人們自行估算。但在市場低迷的情況下，這就是我們的預期。

Got it. And then, yes, it looks like EBITDA, it probably builds more cleanly from '24 than '25, but seems to be right based on what you told us. So thank you for giving us that framework at least. In the quarter itself, could you just talk about -- I mean, there's a lot of variability relative to us, relative to the Street in the third-quarter, the fourth-quarter, but netting it all out, it looks like it pretty well hit the mark. The high gross margin was expected in the third-quarter. Could you talk about why SG&A was also so elevated in the third-quarter?

知道了。是的，從 2024 年到 2025 年的 EBITDA 數據來看，數據成長可能更清晰，但根據你告訴我們的情況來看，這似乎是正確的。所以，至少感謝您為我們提供了這個框架。就本季而言，您能否談談——我的意思是，相對於我們和華爾街而言，第三季和第四季存在著許多變數，但總的來說，看起來相當不錯，達到了預期目標。第三季毛利率較高是意料之中的。您能否談談為什麼第三季銷售、管理及行政費用也如此高？

Yes, Dave, the biggest impact, quite frankly, on the SG&A in the third-quarter is the way our bonus accrual works. And so there was a pretty significant bonus accrual relative to the rest of the quarter. And so I think if you took that out, you would see that number be pretty consistent with what we've seen in the other quarters of the year.

是的，戴夫，坦白說，對第三季銷售、一般及行政費用影響最大的因素是我們的獎金提列方式。因此，相對於本季其他部分而言，獎金累積額相當可觀。所以我覺得，如果把這個因素去掉，你會發現這個數字與我們在今年其他季度看到的數字相當一致。

And so was that some sort of catch-up that you had to smooth it out relative to the first three quarters and then it will be normal in the fourth? Is that right?

所以，這是某種需要彌補的缺口，目的是為了讓第四季度的情況相對於前三個季度有所改善，然後第四季度就會恢復正常嗎？是這樣嗎？

That's correct.

沒錯。

Yes. Okay. And then when you think about the third-quarter and the fourth-quarter, again, given the wild variability relative to our own estimates to the Street, what for you came in differently than how you were thinking about things, if at all? When you look at the third-quarter and then sort of what you're guiding for the fourth, is there anything in there that you say, well, this is a little bit more, a little bit less than we were originally anticipating midyear?

是的。好的。那麼，當你回顧第三季和第四季時，考慮到我們自己對華爾街的預測存在很大的波動，你的實際結果與你之前的想法有何不同（如果有的話）？當你回顧第三季以及對第四季的預測時，你覺得其中有哪些部分比我們年中最初的預期略高或略低？

Yes. I would say, Dave, as we look back on what we said last quarter, I think it was pretty consistent with our expectations in both the third and what we're seeing in the fourth-quarter. So I don't think there was anything really that surprised us. We expected the profitability. We expected the margin rate to increase about 300 basis points.

是的。戴夫，我想說，回顧上個季度我們所說的話，我認為這與我們對第三季度的預期以及我們在第四季度看到的情況都相當一致。所以我覺得沒有什麼真正讓我們感到驚訝的事情發生。我們預期會獲利。我們預計保證金率將上升約 300 個基點。

It might have been a little bit better than that, but pretty much in line with our own expectations. I think the team did a really good job of performing again in really tough -- a really tough environment when you think about what's happening macro with tariffs and those conversations with our customers.

或許可以做得更好一些，但基本上符合我們的預期。我認為團隊在非常艱難的環境下再次表現出色——考慮到關稅等宏觀因素以及與客戶的溝通，這是一個非常艱難的環境。

I think the other thing that I think we're really proud of is we had 2% new business wins in the quarter in spite of all of the noise around tariffs. Again, great job when you think about what our sales team is doing and it really speaks volumes about how much our customers value and trust us when we're able to go out and win new business when we're asking for price at the same time.

我認為我們真正引以為傲的另一件事是，儘管關稅方面存在諸多爭議，但我們本季仍取得了 2% 的新業務成長。再次強調，考慮到我們銷售團隊的工作，你們做得非常好。當我們在詢價的同時也能贏得新業務時，這充分說明了我們的客戶有多重視和信任我們。

Yes. And I think in addition to the sales team doing a great job, our operations team is world-class. We're very proud of what they've done. They've really run the business well. Q3 was an excellent quarter, very efficient.

是的。我認為，除了銷售團隊表現出色之外，我們的營運團隊也是世界一流的。我們為他們所取得的成就感到非常自豪。他們把生意經營得非常好。第三季表現出色，效率很高。

We had a lot of moving pieces and the team was able to execute. So yes, there's a little bit higher cost, as Rocky mentioned. We did do things like labeling on the field. There was a lot of activity in Q3. So we feel like Q3 is set up and we also feel like, Dave, Q4 is on target with what we expected.

我們有很多環節需要協調，但團隊最終成功執行了所有任務。是的，正如洛基所提到的那樣，成本會稍微高一些。我們確實做了一些事情，例如在場地上貼標籤。第三季活動非常活躍。因此，我們感覺第三季已經準備就緒，而且戴夫，我們也覺得第四季達到了我們預期的目標。

Brian McNamara, Canaccord Genuity.

Brian McNamara，Canaccord Genuity。

So Rocky, I just want to clarify the cadence. In May, I think your projection for market volumes and pricing was plus 17, minus 17. Then in August, it was plus 12, minus 9 for H2. And then now it's plus 11, minus 7. Is that correct?

所以洛基，我只是想澄清一下節奏。我記得五月你對市場交易量和價格的預測分別是+17和-17。到了八月份，H2 的值為 +12，-9。現在是加 11，減 7。是這樣嗎？

I think that's -- I think those were quick the way you said that, Brian. But yes, I think it's correct. The only thing I would say when you say those numbers, again, back to the minus 17, that was when there was a $250 million tariff regime. And in that environment, we weren't changing any of our guidance.

我覺得──我覺得你剛才說得很快，布萊恩。是的，我認為這是正確的。關於你提到的那些數字，我唯一想說的是，再說一遍，回到-17，那是因為當時實行的是2.5億美元的關稅制度。在這種情況下，我們沒有改變任何指導方針。

Understood. I'm curious on the timing of when these price increases hit the shelves, understanding, obviously, it probably varies by retailers. As our work suggests it's kind of late August, early September?

明白了。我很想知道這些價格上漲何時會生效，當然，我也明白這可能因零售商而異。根據我們的工作來看，現在應該是八月下旬到九月初吧？

Yes. I mean, you're spot on. I mean, if you think about traditional hardware, labels are put on throughout the back half of the year. So yes, you didn't see all that price really reading in till Q3, into Q4. And then each of the other retailers, they maintain their own pricing and they drive the retail strategies that they see fit. So you've seen it cascade in throughout the quarter and we expected it to cascade in the fourth-quarter as well.

是的。我的意思是，你說得完全正確。我的意思是，如果你想想傳統的硬件，標籤都是在下半年貼上去的。所以，是的，直到第三季到第四季度，你才真正看到價格上漲的趨勢。其他零售商則各自維持自己的定價策略，並推行他們認為合適的零售策略。所以你已經看到這種情況在整個季度中不斷蔓延，我們也預計這種情況會在第四季繼續蔓延。

Got it. And then has there been any pushback on these significant price increases either on the retailer level or the customers within the stores? And I'm curious your thoughts on -- I mean, lumber has been a pretty volatile commodity this year.

知道了。那麼，零售商或店內顧客是否對這些大幅漲價表示反對呢？我很想知道你對木材價格的看法——我的意思是，今年木材價格一直波動很大。

There's a lot been written in the quarter, obviously, about it was dropping in price. It was up year-to-date. I'm just curious, like how is the price of lumber and maybe other construction materials either directly or indirectly impacted your business?

顯然，本季有很多文章都在討論它的價格下跌問題。截至目前為止。我只是好奇，木材以及其他建築材料的價格對您的業務有何直接或間接的影響？

Yes. I mean, just go back to here. I mean, customers have been balanced and reasonable. They understand this is a tax and we have to run a business. So I won't say they've been easy, but they've also been fair. We have -- we do business with some of the best retailers in the world as you know and I think that's been reasonable. As far as the impact of lumber, I think from my perspective, this is one man's opinion. I think what you see is we're still seeing the smaller projects are still going forward.

是的。我的意思是，你就回這裡去吧。我的意思是，顧客們一直都很理性、很冷靜。他們明白這是稅收，我們也要經營生意。所以，我不會說他們很容易對付，但他們也算公平。正如您所知，我們與世界上一些最好的零售商都有業務往來，我認為這是合理的。至於木材的影響，我認為這只是我個人的觀點。我認為我們看到的是，規模較小的項目仍在繼續前進。

People do the repair and the maintenance type activities because they have to take care of that good times are bad. Brian, what we are seeing though is -- and I think this is consistent, I'm not going to quote the retailers, but the larger projects is where you're seeing some pushback.

人們進行維修和保養之類的活動，是因為他們必須照顧好這些東西，無論好壞。布萊恩，我們看到的情況是——我認為這是普遍現象，我不會引用零售商的話，但在較大的項目中，你會看到一些阻力。

So where we would have had some drywall screws or some structural screws go along with the project and where lumber might be impacting that, that is where I would say that there has been less of the demand than we'd like to see. And that's where we believe the interest rates as well as getting things settled down from a tariff perspective will help in '26 and again, why we're excited about the future. So yes, I think the input prices on bigger ticket items is a pressure point in my opinion.

因此，在原本需要用到一些石膏板螺絲或結構螺絲的地方，如果木材的使用會影響到這些螺絲或結構螺絲，那麼我認為，木材的需求量就比我們希望看到的要少。我們認為，利率以及關稅方面的穩定將有助於 2026 年的發展，這也是我們對未來感到興奮的原因。所以，是的，我認為高價商品的投入成本是一個壓力點。

Great. And then just if I could squeeze one last one on M&A. Obviously, a big part of your story historically, I'm assuming there's been a pause given tariffs and the like. When do you see that maybe starting to open up a little bit, just given we probably have a little more clarity on tariffs today than we have in acknowledging it changes daily with tweets?

偉大的。最後，如果我還能擠出一點時間談談併購的話。顯然，從歷史角度來看，這很大程度上是你的故事的一部分，我假設由於關稅等原因，這段時間有所停滯。鑑於我們現在對關稅的了解可能比以前更清晰一些（儘管我們意識到關稅資訊每天都在隨著推特的變化而變化），您認為這種情況什麼時候會開始有所改善？

Yes. Well, I won't comment on that aspect. But back to the M&A piece of it, Brian, we are seeing -- our team is actually getting more inbound now than we saw last quarter or the quarter before that. So actually, we're starting to see some interesting activity. So I'd say the activity and the interest level is ticking up a bit.

是的。嗯，我不會對這方面發表評論。但回到併購方面，布萊恩，我們看到——我們的團隊現在收到的詢問實際上比上個季度或上個季度要多。所以實際上，我們開始看到一些有趣的活動了。所以我覺得活躍度和興趣程度都在稍微上升。

We're excited about continuing our strategy, which is to drive tuck-ins whether it's we focus on our core business or what we're doing to grow DIY and specifically also we're interested in the Pro. As you know, it's 25% of our business. We're going to look at deals that make sense in all those three areas. So we're excited about what M&A will present for opportunities as we move forward.

我們很高興能夠繼續我們的策略，那就是推動細分市場的發展，無論是專注於我們的核心業務，還是發展 DIY 業務，特別是我們對 Pro 市場也感興趣。如您所知，這占我們業務的 25%。我們將考察在這三個方面都合理的交易。因此，我們對併購在未來發展中將帶來的機會感到興奮。

And this concludes the Q&A portion of today's call. I would now like to turn the call back to Mr. Adinolfi for closing remarks.

今天的電話會議問答環節到此結束。現在我謹將電話轉回給阿迪諾爾菲先生，請他作總結發言。

Thanks again, everyone, for joining us this morning. We look forward to updating you on our progress soon. Thanks, and have a great day. Take care.

再次感謝各位今天早上收看我們的節目。我們期待盡快向您報告最新進展。謝謝，祝您今天過得愉快。小心。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線了。