Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the second-quarter 2024 results presentation for Hillman Solutions Corp. My name is Gigi, and I will be your conference call operator today. Before we begin, I would like to remind our listeners that today's presentation is being recorded and simultaneously webcast.

    早安,歡迎來到 Hillman Solutions Corp 的 2024 年第二季業績發表會。在開始之前,我想提醒聽眾,今天的演示正在錄製並同時進行網路直播。

  • The Company's earnings release, presentation, and 10-Q were issued this morning. These documents and a replay of today's presentation can be accessed on Hillman's Investor Relations website at ir.hillmangroup.com.

    該公司的收益報告、簡報和 10 季財報已於今天上午發布。這些文件和今天示範的重播可在 Hillman 投資者關係網站 ir.hillmangroup.com 上取得。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Michael Koehler with Hillman.

    我現在想將電話轉給邁克爾·科勒和希爾曼。

  • Michael Koehler - Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury

    Michael Koehler - Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury

  • Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm Michael Koehler, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Joining me on today's call are Doug Cahill, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; John Michael Adinolfi, our Chief Operating Officer; and Rocky Kraft, our Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝你,接線生。大家早安,感謝您加入我們。我是麥可‧科勒 (Michael Koehler),投資者關係與財務部副總裁。參加今天電話會議的還有我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Doug Cahill;約翰·邁克爾·阿迪諾爾菲,我們的營運長;以及我們的財務長 Rocky Kraft。

  • Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind our audience that certain statements made today may be considered forward-looking and are subject to the Safe Harbor provisions of applicable securities. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, assumptions, and other factors, many of which are beyond the company's control and may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in such things.

    在我們開始今天的電話會議之前,我想提醒我們的聽眾,今天所做的某些陳述可能被視為前瞻性的,並受到適用證券的安全港條款的約束。這些前瞻性陳述並非對未來績效的保證,並受到某些風險、不確定性、假設和其他因素的影響,其中許多因素超出了公司的控制範圍,並可能導致實際結果與此類事件中的預測存在重大差異。

  • Some of the other factors that could influence our results are contained in our periodic and annual reports filed with the SEC. For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties, please see slide 2 in our earnings call slide presentation, which is available on our website, ir.hillmangroup.com.

    一些可能影響我們結果的其他因素包含在我們向 SEC 提交的定期和年度報告中。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息,請參閱我們的財報電話會議幻燈片演示文稿中的幻燈片 2,該演示文稿可在我們的網站 ir.hillmangroup.com 上獲取。

  • In addition on today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding our use of and reconciliations of these measures to our GAAP results are available in our earnings call slide presentation.

    此外,在今天的電話會議上,我們將提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關我們使用這些措施以及將這些措施與我們的 GAAP 結果進行協調的信息,請參閱我們的收益電話會議幻燈片演示。

  • With that, Doug will begin today's call by highlighting our healthy second-quarter` financial results, touching on our guidance and providing some commentary on the macro environment before turning the call over to JMA, who will hit on the Hillman moat and our operations. Rocky will go through the financials and our updated guidance before turning the call back to Doug for commentary on the executive succession plan, we have separately announced this morning and providing some closing comments before we open up the call to your questions.

    道格將在今天的電話會議開始時強調我們健康的第二季度財務業績,談到我們的指導並對宏觀環境提供一些評論,然後將電話會議轉交給JMA,JMA 將討論Hillman 護城河和我們的運營。洛基將仔細閱讀財務數據和我們更新的指導意見,然後再將電話轉回給道格,以徵求對高管繼任計劃的評論。的問題之前提供了一些總結評論。

  • It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to our Chairman, President and CEO, Doug Cahill. Doug?

    現在我很高興將電話轉給我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Doug Cahill。道格?

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Michael. Good morning, everyone. During the second quarter of 2024, we saw our adjusted EBITDA results increased 18% over the year-ago quarter, which outperformed our expectations. Our team did a great job controlling our costs and managing our margins, which led to a strong bottom line performance for the quarter.

    謝謝,麥可。大家早安。2024 年第二季度,我們的調整後 EBITDA 業績比去年同期成長了 18%,超出了我們的預期。我們的團隊在控製成本和管理利潤方面做得很好,這為本季帶來了強勁的利潤表現。

  • We're highly confident in our ability to continue to control costs, manage our margins, and manage our product mix for the remainder of the year. Because of this, we are increasing our full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. Our new range of $240 million to $250 million has a midpoint of $245 million, which reflects a 12% increase over our 2023 full-year results.

    我們對今年剩餘時間內繼續控製成本、管理利潤和管理產品組合的能力充滿信心。因此,我們正在提高全年調整後 EBITDA 指引。我們的新範圍為 2.4 億美元至 2.5 億美元,中位數為 2.45 億美元,比我們 2023 年全年業績成長了 12%。

  • We're thrilled with how Hillman team is effectively managing margins and operating efficiently this year. The entire organization is pitched in, trimming costs where they are able to and maximizing productivity above and beyond our expectations, all while fill rates remained strong at 95%. While we've done a good job controlling what we can control, the macro environment is soft, which has weighed in our net sales expectations for the year. Because of this, we're revising our full-year net sales to $1.44 billion to $1.48 billion with a midpoint of $1.46 billion, reflecting a 1% decrease over our 2023 net sales.

    我們對 Hillman 團隊今年有效管理利潤和高效運作的方式感到興奮。整個組織都全力投入,在力所能及的範圍內削減成本,並最大限度地提高生產力,超出我們的預期,同時填充率仍保持在 95% 的強勁水平。雖然我們在控制可控範圍方面做得很好,但宏觀環境疲軟,這影響了我們今年的淨銷售預期。因此,我們將全年淨銷售額修正為 14.4 億美元至 14.8 億美元,中間值為 14.6 億美元,比 2023 年淨銷售額下降 1%。

  • So far this year, our results feel a lot like 2009. That year, our top line was down about 5% due to the macro environment. However, our bottom line benefited from deflation, tightening cost control, which resulted in a 10% increase in EBITDA. In the years following, we saw a return to our historical mid-single-digit growth rates. And we believe we're in the midst of a very similar situation today as we are optimistic about our future top line growth prospects.

    今年到目前為止,我們的結果感覺很像 2009 年。那一年,由於宏觀環境的影響,我們的營收下降了約 5%。然而,我們的利潤受益於通貨緊縮,加強了成本控制,導致 EBITDA 成長了 10%。在接下來的幾年裡,我們看到了歷史中個位數成長率的回歸。我們相信我們今天正處於非常相似的情況,因為我們對未來的收入成長前景感到樂觀。

  • Hill was a very good company when the economy is growing and markets are healthy, and our results are proving that Hillman is strong as things slow down. Back to the quarter, our 2024 free cash flow expectations remain unchanged after our solid year-to-date results on cash. The strength of our bottom line performance gives us the confidence to reiterate our free cash flow guidance of $100 million to $120 million with a midpoint of $110 million. Rocky will provide more detail on our guide in just a few minutes.

    當經濟成長和市場健康時,希爾是一家非常優秀的公司,我們的業績證明希爾曼在經濟放緩時仍然強大。回到本季度,我們的 2024 年自由現金流預期保持不變,因為我們的現金業績表現穩健。我們的底線表現強勁,使我們有信心重申 1 億至 1.2 億美元的自由現金流指引,中間值為 1.1 億美元。洛基將在幾分鐘內提供有關我們指南的更多詳細資訊。

  • Another highlight for Hillman is that we ended the quarter with net debt and trailing 12 month adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.9 times, and we will continue to delever throughout the year. Hillman has not been below 3 times leverage since 2009. And since the beginning of 2021, we have paid down over $900 million of debt.

    Hillman 的另一個亮點是,我們本季末的淨債務和過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 比率為 2.9 倍,我們將在全年繼續去槓桿化。自 2009 年以來,Hillman 的槓桿率從未低於 3 倍。自 2021 年初以來,我們已償還超過 9 億美元的債務。

  • Our financial strength and operational efficiency allows us to play offense. Let me tell you what that looks like to us. We believe we can continue our strategy of executing accretive, low-risk tuck-in acquisitions in adjacent aisles. There are numerous opportunities out there and we believe we will close on an acquisition that looks a lot like Koch by the end of the third quarter.

    我們的財務實力和營運效率使我們能夠進攻。讓我告訴你這對我們來說是什麼樣的。我們相信,我們可以繼續執行在鄰近通道進行增值、低風險的收購的策略。那裡有很多機會,我們相信我們將在第三季末完成一項看起來很像科赫的收購。

  • We will not only have EBITDA growth due to the natural synergies, but also see additional top line growth opportunities by leveraging the Hillman moat as we are well positioned with our in-store service team, direct-store delivery model, and Hillman-owned brands.

    我們不僅會因自然協同效應而獲得 EBITDA 成長,還會透過利用 Hillman 護城河看到額外的營收成長機會,因為我們憑藉店內服務團隊、直營店配送模式和 Hillman 自有品牌處於有利地位。

  • Outside of growing via M&A, we see sizable opportunities ahead. Our team of product managers and engineers have done a great job with innovation by developing patented and proprietary products. We believe this product innovation will lead to new business wins in the next couple of years, which will allow us to grow in excess of our historical new business growth rate. We're in a great position to stay on offense, which will build the foundation for our continued future growth.

    除了透過併購實現成長之外,我們還看到了巨大的機會。我們的產品經理和工程師團隊透過開發專利和專有產品,在創新方面做得非常出色。我們相信,這項產品創新將在未來幾年帶來新業務的勝利,這將使我們的成長速度超過歷史新業務成長率。我們處於保持進攻的有利位置,這將為我們未來的持續成長奠定基礎。

  • Net sales in the second quarter of 2024 totaled $379.4 million, which was essentially flat from the year ago quarter. There are several drivers for our performance during the quarter. Number one was the sales from Koch acquisition, which added 3 percentage points to the top line. Number two is new business wins, which added about 2% to the top line.

    2024 年第二季淨銷售額總計 3.794 億美元,與去年同期基本持平。我們本季的業績有幾個驅動因素。排名第一的是 Koch 收購帶來的銷售額,使收入增加了 3 個百分點。第二是新業務的勝利,這使收入增加了約 2%。

  • There were offsets to -- but by two main factors. Number one was a 90 point basis headwind from price, which was in line with our expectations. And number two was the overall market volume, which excludes the impact of new business wins and M&A. Overall market volumes were down about 4% for the quarter. These were all in line with our expectations with the exception of market volume, which is the -- which we are being impacted, obviously by the macro.

    存在抵消-但主要有兩個因素。第一是價格存在 90 個點的逆風,這符合我們的預期。第二是整體市場容量,其中不包括新業務獲勝和併購的影響。本季整體市場成交量下降約 4%。除了市場量之外,這些都符合我們的預期,而市場量是我們正在受到的影響,顯然是受到宏觀因素的影響。

  • We're seeing soft foot traffic, which we believe is driven by existing home sales in the US. It decreased from $6 million in 2021 to $4 million in 2023, the lowest level since 1995. This headwind has continued throughout 2024 with existing home sales at a similar level to 2023. Despite the soft macro, the new wins continue for Hillman, this time with our newly acquired rope and chain product line, Koch.

    我們看到客流量疲軟,我們認為這是由美國現有房屋銷售所推動的。從 2021 年的 600 萬美元下降到 2023 年的 400 萬美元,這是自 1995 年以來的最低水準。這種不利因素在 2024 年持續存在,現房銷售水準與 2023 年相似。儘管宏觀情況疲軟,Hillman 仍繼續取得新的勝利,這次是我們新收購的繩索和鏈條產品線 Koch。

  • We were successful in winning a $10 million piece of new business that one of our top five accounts will begin to ship and recognize volume from this wind in the second half of the year and into 2025. This win is a great example of leveraging our deep relationships and in store service capabilities to drive organic growth via M&A.

    我們成功贏得了一項價值 1000 萬美元的新業務,我們的五個最大客戶之一將開始發貨,並從今年下半年到 2025 年從這股風中獲得了銷售。這次勝利是利用我們深厚的關係和店內服務能力透過併購推動有機成長的一個很好的例子。

  • For the quarter, adjusted EBITDA increased 18% to $68.4 million compared to $58 million during the second quarter of 2023. Our adjusted EBITDA margins improved to 18%. Adjusted gross margins totaled 48.7%, marking a 570 basis point improvement over 43% during the year-ago quarter. For the fourth consecutive quarter, we generated healthy adjusted EBITDA growth and adjusted gross margin improvements.

    本季調整後 EBITDA 成長 18%,達到 6,840 萬美元,而 2023 年第二季為 5,800 萬美元。我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率提高至 18%。調整後毛利率總計 48.7%,比去年同期的 43% 提高了 570 個基點。我們連續第四個季度實現了健康的調整後 EBITDA 成長和調整後毛利率改善。

  • We have managed this by improving efficiencies, managing margins, and selling a better mix of products. During the quarter, we generated $42.5 million of free cash flow, following a use of $6 million of cash last quarter. Our healthy free cash flow was driven by the cyclical nature of our business. We used cash to build inventory early in the year for our spring and summer busy season, which starts to turn to positive free cash flow in Q2 and continues for the remainder of the year.

    我們透過提高效率、管理利潤和銷售更好的產品組合來實現這一目標。繼上季使用 600 萬美元現金後,本季我們產生了 4,250 萬美元的自由現金流。我們健康的自由現金流是由我們業務的周期性推動的。我們在今年年初使用現金為春季和夏季的旺季建立庫存,這在第二季度開始轉變為正的自由現金流,並持續到今年剩餘時間。

  • For our top-line results, hardware and protective solutions or HPS led the way with a 3.5% increase in net sales. To break that down a bit, hardware or HS grew by 2.7% while protective or PS sales grew by 7.7%. Driving the increase in HS were new business wins. The contributions from Koch partially offset by the market and price.

    就我們的主要業績而言,硬體和防護解決方案或 HPS 處於領先地位,淨銷售額成長了 3.5%。稍微細分一下,硬體或 HS 成長了 2.7%,而防護或 PS 銷售額成長了 7.7%。推動 HS 成長的是新業務的勝利。科赫的貢獻被市場和價格部分抵消。

  • PS had a nice quarter with new business wins and an active promotional off-shelf quarter driving this growth more than only offsetting a soft market. Net sales for robotics and digital solutions or RDS were down 8% versus the year ago quarter. Adjusted gross margins and adjusted EBITDA margins remain healthy at 70.6% and 31.8%, respectively. The trend of the past few quarters continues to impact RDS. Lighter foot traffic and discretionary spending, softness in existing home sales, and our machines being moved around inside stores at a top customer weighed on RDS results.

    PS 季度表現不錯,贏得了新業務,活躍的現貨促銷季度推動了這一增長,而不僅僅是抵消了疲軟的市場。機器人和數位解決方案或 RDS 的淨銷售額較去年同期下降 8%。調整後毛利率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率分別維持在 70.6% 和 31.8% 的健康水準。過去幾季的趨勢持續影響著 RDS。客流量和可自由支配支出減少、現房銷售疲軟以及我們的機器在頂級客戶的商店內移動,這些都影響了 RDS 的業績。

  • We remain optimistic about our long-term, high-growth -- high-margin growth opportunities in RDS, including the new minuteKEY offering. Our RDS business is a very solid business and we are the clear leader in market share in North America. We believe we'll see + RDS back to positive growth in 2025.

    我們對 RDS 的長期、高成長、高利潤成長機會保持樂觀,包括新的 分鐘KEY 產品。我們的 RDS 業務是一項非常穩固的業務,我們在北美市場佔有率方面處於明顯的領先地位。我們相信,我們將在 2025 年看到 + RDS 恢復正成長。

  • And there are two main reasons why we believe this. First, our new minuteKEY 3.5 machine opens up the auto key, auto five, and endless aisle on our self-serve machines for the first time ever. And the weekly footsteps at our top three RDS retailers are staggering -- near 180 million footsteps per week in the US.

    我們相信這一點有兩個主要原因。首先,我們的新型 分鐘KEY 3.5 機器首次在我們的自助服務機器上開闢了自動鑰匙、自動五號和無盡通道。我們三大 RDS 零售商的每週腳步量令人震驚——在美國每周有近 1.8 億人次。

  • We now have over 400 machines in the field with this new technology, and we plan to have three times our current number in stores by year end. Consumers love the ease of this new machine. Our retailers love the new features and revenue growth opportunities. And in July, we successfully introduced the endless aisle on our self-service minuteKEY 3.5 machines. The endless aisle is really a great name because it's truly endless. It allows the consumer to duplicate virtually any key at the kiosks and have it shipped to your house.

    目前,我們在現場擁有 400 多台採用這項新技術的機器,我們計劃在年底將店內數量增加到目前的三倍。消費者喜歡這款新機器的易用性。我們的零售商喜歡新功能和收入成長機會。7 月份,我們在自助式 分鐘KEY 3.5 機器上成功引入了無盡通道。無盡的過道確實是一個偉大的名字,因為它確實是無盡的。它允許消費者在售貨亭複製​​幾乎任何鑰匙並將其運送到您的家中。

  • Let me give you a quick example of our endless aisle. If you live in Arizona and want to copy your house key, but you want it on a Cincinnati Bengals Key blank. You now can order the key through our kiosk, the machine scans your key, the data goes to our plant in Tempe, Arizona, where the Bengals key has held an inventory. The Bengals Key is then cut and promptly mailed to you, and after a few business days, you can show off your Bengals Key to your friends.

    讓我舉一個關於我們無盡的過道的簡單例子。如果您住在亞利桑那州並且想要複製您的房屋鑰匙,但您希望將其放在辛辛那提猛虎隊鑰匙坯上。現在,您可以透過我們的自助服務終端訂購鑰匙,機器會掃描您的鑰匙,資料會發送到我們位於亞利桑那州坦佩的工廠,孟加拉鑰匙在那裡擁有庫存。然後,孟加拉虎鑰匙被切割並立即郵寄給您,幾個工作日後,您就可以向您的朋友炫耀您的孟加拉虎鑰匙。

  • The second are the opportunities that our RDS service team can capitalize on. Redbox's recent liquidation provides new business opportunity for Hillman's RDS service team with two new accounts already linked. The accounts add both top and bottom line results similar to our RDS mix today but with no capital required. Additionally, we have strengthened our team with the successful hiring of experienced people from Redbox to help us scale and grow this opportunity further.

    第二個是我們的 RDS 服務團隊可以利用的機會。Redbox 最近的清算為 Hillman 的 RDS 服務團隊提供了新的商機,兩個新帳戶已經關聯。這些帳戶添加了類似於我們今天的 RDS 組合的頂線和底線結果,但不需要資本。此外,我們透過成功聘用 Redbox 經驗豐富的人員來加強我們的團隊,以幫助我們進一步擴大和擴大這一機會。

  • It's good for these folks and great for Hillman to add experienced team members with kiosk background on day one. We have a great game plan in place with our top three RDS customers. The feedback on our recent kiosk enhancements has been strong, and the early incremental growth statistics are encouraging as well. For these reasons, we're confident that this high-margin business will be back to growth in 2025.

    從第一天起就增加具有自助服務終端背景的經驗豐富的團隊成員,這對這些人有好處,對 Hillman 來說也很棒。我們與三大 RDS 客戶制定了出色的遊戲計劃。我們最近的自助服務終端增強功能的回饋非常強烈,早期的增量成長統計數據也令人鼓舞。基於這些原因,我們有信心這項高利潤業務將在 2025 年恢復成長。

  • Turning into Canada, net sales in our Canadian business was down 10.1% compared to the prior year quarter. The market and the economy are softer than in the US, but our team's done a nice job with margins, mix, and operations during the quarter. We also had some new business wins during the quarter in Canada, which partially offset the market, price, and FX.

    談到加拿大,我們加拿大業務的淨銷售額與去年同期相比下降了 10.1%。市場和經濟比美國疲軟,但我們的團隊在本季的利潤、組合和營運方面做得很好。本季我們在加拿大也取得了一些新業務,這部分抵銷了市場、價格和外匯的影響。

  • While the macro environment [isn't help] when we continue to win new business, strengthen our relationship with our customers, and reinforce our competitive moat, which JMA will touch on in a moment. We feel great about where we are with our customers right now and how team Hillman is performing. We'll continue to execute well during this cycle. We've done an excellent job controlling what we can while managing our margin.

    雖然宏觀環境對我們繼續贏得新業務、加強與客戶的關係以及加強我們的競爭護城河沒有幫助,JMA 稍後會談到這些。我們對目前與客戶的關係以及 Hillman 團隊的表現感到非常滿意。我們將在這個週期中繼續表現良好。我們在控制利潤的同時,做得非常好。

  • That said, I know this team and our customers are ready to ramp when the market improves. It's fun to be on offense again. For the first half of the year, we generated $120.7 million of adjusted EBITDA, which is a record for the first half of a Hillman year -- of any Hillman year.

    也就是說,我知道這個團隊和我們的客戶已經準備好在市場好轉時擴大規模。再次進攻很有趣。今年上半年,我們實現了 1.207 億美元的調整後 EBITDA,這是 Hillman 年度上半年的記錄 - 任何 Hillman 年度的記錄。

  • I love Hillman is performing and where we're headed, and I'm excited to turn it over to JMA. He will take the reins from me in January as the sixth CEO in the 60-year history of Hillman. JMA?

    我喜歡 Hillman 的表演以及我們的發展方向,我很高興能將其交給 JMA。他將於 1 月接替我的職務,成為 Hillman 60 年歷史上的第六位執行長。JMA?

  • John Adinolfi - Chief Operating Officer

    John Adinolfi - Chief Operating Officer

  • Thank you, Doug.

    謝謝你,道格。

  • I joined Hillman five years ago, and I've gotten to see firsthand what makes this company so unique: Hillman's people, Hillman's commitment taking care of its customers, and Hillman's moat. I look forward to building on these strengths and carrying on Hillman legacy as Hillman's next CEO.

    我五年前加入 Hillman,親眼目睹了這家公司的獨特之處:Hillman 的員工、Hillman 照顧客戶的承諾以及 Hillman 的護城河。我期待著作為希爾曼的下一任首席執行官,發揮這些優勢並繼承希爾曼的遺產。

  • First, I'll start with the moat. The Hillman moat makes us a strategic partner for our retail customers as we're able to add value and solve problems in ways that our competition doesn't. We believe our moat is the main driver for our long history of consistent growth.

    首先,我將從護城河開始。Hillman 護城河使我們成為零售客戶的策略合作夥伴,因為我們能夠以競爭對手無法做到的方式增加價值並解決問題。我們相信,我們的護城河是我們長期持續成長的主要驅動力。

  • The Hillman moat consists of three main pillars. First, we have our 1,100 plus sales and service warriors that are out in the field each and every day. These men and women are in the stores for our customers, providing top-notch customer service at the shelf. This Hillman team in the stores has been adding value for our customers for close to 30 years.

    希爾曼護城河由三個主要支柱組成。首先,我們有 1,100 多名銷售和服務人員每天都在現場工作。這些男男女女在商店裡為我們的顧客服務,在貨架上提供一流的客戶服務。近 30 年來,Hillman 商店團隊一直在為我們的客戶增加價值。

  • Second, our distribution centers where we pick, pack, and ship product orders direct to the stores or retail customers. Generally, our products do not flow through our customer distribution network, which eases the logistical burden for our customers. This means that for Hillman products, our customers do not have to worry about the complexity required to get products to the shelves.

    其次,我們的配送中心,我們在這裡挑選、包裝產品訂單並將其直接運送給商店或零售客戶。一般來說,我們的產品不會流經我們的客戶分銷網絡,這減輕了客戶的物流負擔。這意味著對於 Hillman 產品,我們的客戶不必擔心產品上架所需的複雜性。

  • And third, we typically have said this as our third pillar is the brands that we own but let me expand on that. As you know, Hillman has been around for 60 years, and we've been working with our top five customers for over 25 years on average. This long history has allowed us to create strong partnerships with our customers from the associates in the store to the store manager to the merchants to leadership team. Hillman has unique broad retail relationships and is connected at all levels. These long-standing relationships allow us to approach the business creatively and strategically with our customers rather than short-sighted approach meeting in near term goal.

    第三,我們通常會說,我們的第三個支柱是我們擁有的品牌,但讓我對此進行擴展。如您所知,Hillman 已有 60 年歷史,我們與前五名客戶的合作時間平均超過 25 年。悠久的歷史使我們能夠與客戶建立牢固的合作夥伴關係,從商店員工到商店經理,從商家到領導團隊。Hillman 擁有獨特的廣泛零售關係,並在各個層面都有聯繫。這些長期的關係使我們能夠與客戶一起創造性地、策略性地開展業務,而不是短視地滿足近期目標。

  • Secondly, when you combine our service teams in the stores, SKU level POS reporting in our direct-to-store shipping, it puts us at the forefront of product trends, consumer insights, and research. Given that we're a market leader in many of our product categories, we can leverage this data to work with our customers and better manage the category. This enables us to become the partner of choice for our customers as we help them meet their goals while putting the best products on the shelves for the end user.

    其次,當您將我們在商店的服務團隊、SKU 級別的 POS 報告與我們直接到商店的運輸相結合時,它使我們處於產品趨勢、消費者洞察和研究的前沿。鑑於我們是許多產品類別的市場領導者,我們可以利用這些數據與客戶合作並更好地管理該類別。這使我們能夠成為客戶的首選合作夥伴,幫助他們實現目標,同時為最終用戶提供最好的產品。

  • Another thing I'd like to touch on is product innovation. We have talented product management and engineering teams as well state-of-the-art test labs in Toronto, Cincinnati, and Tempe. Combining this group with customer insights that only Hillman has allowed us to put innovative high-performing products on the shelf. Plus, about 90% of our revenue comes from brands that we own and control, which allows us to anticipate and meet the evolving needs of our retail customers and end users.

    我想談的另一件事是產品創新。我們擁有才華橫溢的產品管理和工程團隊,以及在多倫多、辛辛那提和坦佩的最先進的測試實驗室。將這個團隊與只有 Hillman 的客戶洞察結合,我們才能將創新的高效能產品上架。此外,我們約 90% 的收入來自我們擁有和控制的品牌,這使我們能夠預測並滿足零售客戶和最終用戶不斷變化的需求。

  • To summarize the third pillar of remote, it comes from our 60-plus years of experience that consists of our customer relationships, category management, and Hillman-owned brands.

    總結遠端的第三個支柱,它來自我們 60 多年的經驗,包括我們的客戶關係、品類管理和 Hillman 自有品牌。

  • Now we'll turn to M&A. Our moat is critical to how we take care of our customer and how we grow. Over the past 60 years, M&A has been a key part of how Hillman is growing to a $1.5 billion company. When we talk to potential M&A targets and they learn about Hillman, they quickly understand how their businesses can grow by leveraging the three pillars of our moat.

    現在我們將轉向併購。我們的護城河對於我們如何照顧客戶以及我們如何成長至關重要。過去 60 年來,併購一直是 Hillman 成長為價值 15 億美元的公司的關鍵部分。當我們與潛在的併購目標交談並且他們了解 Hillman 時,他們很快就會了解如何利用我們護城河的三大支柱來發展自己的業務。

  • At Hillman, our experienced M&A team believes that we can execute multiple acquisitions per year that have a similar size to Koch, the acquisition we closed in January of this year. We remain very excited about Koch. And as I told you last quarter, we expect to increase Koch's net sales by at least 20% this year, driven by our first win as the new owners with more to come.

    在 Hillman,我們經驗豐富的併購團隊相信,我們每年可以執行多次與 Koch 規模相似的收購,我們在今年 1 月完成了收購。我們對科赫仍然非常興奮。正如我上個季度告訴您的那樣,我們預計今年 Koch 的淨銷售額將增加至少 20%,這是我們作為新東家首次獲勝的推動力,未來還會有更多勝利。

  • Like Doug said in his opening remarks, we are close to acquire another company. The M&A pipeline is healthy, and we continue to see companies like Koch that would be a great addition to Hillman family.

    正如道格在開場白中所說,我們即將收購另一家公司。併購通路很健康,我們繼續看到像 Koch 這樣的公司將成為 Hillman 家族的重要補充。

  • Now, I'll turn to operations. Our global operation team continues to do a fantastic job. The five folks on our operations team have averaged over 30 years of experience in the industry. Further, half of our supply chain leadership team have worked together for almost 20 years and it shows with the performance of this team. They continue to execute our plan while controlling the controllables. Here's a few examples.

    現在,我將轉向營運。我們的全球營運團隊持續表現出色。我們營運團隊的 5 名成員平均擁有 30 多年的產業經驗。此外,我們供應鏈領導團隊的一半成員已經一起工作了近 20 年,這從團隊的表現中可見一斑。他們在控制可控因素的同時繼續執行我們的計劃。這裡有幾個例子。

  • The team is operating efficiently and effectively. Fill rates continue to be strong at 95% per year, which our customers love. Taking great care of our customers remains a top priority. I'm proud to say that our network of 23 distribution centers across North America is running well as well as it has since I joined Hillman.

    該團隊正在高效且有效地運作。填充率持續保持每年 95% 的強勁水平,這是我們的客戶所喜愛的。照顧好我們的客戶仍然是我們的首要任務。我很自豪地說,當自我加入 Hillman 以來,我們在北美的 23 個配送中心網路運作良好。

  • We have the right products and staff. We are getting them out quickly to our customers, thanks to our long-term supplier partners around the globe. The efficiencies we're seeing in our DC network are driving our bottom line growth, which is critical given the market.

    我們擁有合適的產品和員工。感謝我們在全球的長期供應商合作夥伴,我們能夠快速將它們交付給我們的客戶。我們在資料中心網路中看到的效率正在推動我們的利潤成長,這對市場而言至關重要。

  • Turning to freight, recently, there's been another jump in spot rates for inbound containers coming from Asia, given the turmoil in the Red Sea and Panama Canal. However, because our team locked in our contracted rates on May 1, as we do every year, much of this volatility in spot rates will not impact us as we ship over 90% of our containers on contracts.

    談到貨運,由於紅海和巴拿馬運河的動盪,最近來自亞洲的入境貨櫃即期運費再次上漲。然而,由於我們的團隊在5 月1 日鎖定了合約費率,正如我們每年所做的那樣,即期費率的大部分波動不會影響我們,因為我們90% 以上的貨櫃都是按照合約運輸的。

  • And finally, our input costs. Many of our input costs like steel from China and India and Taiwan increased slightly during the second quarter of 2024 versus the 2023 average but remain below their highs during 2021 and 2022. As I said, we've got a great operations team in place, and we continue to execute efficiently while taking great care of our customers. Between our operations team, our moat, and our M&A opportunities, I believe the future is very bright for Hillman.

    最後,我們的投入成本。2024 年第二季度,我們的許多投入成本(例如來自中國、印度和台灣的鋼鐵)與 2023 年平均值相比略有增加,但仍低於 2021 年和 2022 年的高點。正如我所說,我們擁有一支出色的營運團隊,我們將繼續高效執行,同時精心照顧我們的客戶。在我們的營運團隊、我們的護城河和我們的併購機會之間,我相信 Hillman 的未來非常光明。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Rocky to talk financials. Rocky?

    說到這裡,讓我把它交給洛基來談談財務問題。洛基?

  • Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Thanks, JMA. Let's jump right in.

    謝謝,JMA。讓我們直接開始吧。

  • Net sales for the second quarter of 2024 totaled $379.4 million, a decrease of 0.2% versus the prior year quarter. Second-quarter adjusted gross margin increased by 570 basis points to 48.7% versus the prior year quarter of 43%. Sequentially, adjusted gross margins were up 110 basis points from 47.6% last quarter.

    2024 年第二季淨銷售額總計 3.794 億美元,比去年同期下降 0.2%。第二季調整後毛利率成長 570 個基點,達到 48.7%,去年同期為 43%。隨後,調整後毛利率比上季的 47.6% 上升了 110 個基點。

  • Margins were exceptionally healthy during the quarter. We believe our adjusted gross margins will come down slightly in the second half of the year but remain above 47%. Adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales increased to 30.7% during the quarter from 27.9% from the year-ago quarter, which was in line with our expectations.

    本季的利潤率異常健康。我們相信下半年調整後的毛利率將略有下降,但仍維持在 47% 以上。本季調整後的 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比從去年同期的 27.9% 上升至 30.7%,符合我們的預期。

  • Driving SG&A with our standard employee bonus expense, which was the result of the strong bottom line during the first half of the year when compared to 2023. We expect our adjusted SG&A rate for the remainder of the year to be relatively consistent with Q2. Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was $68.4 million, which grew 18% versus the year-ago quarter.

    透過我們的標準員工獎金支出來推動 SG&A,這是與 2023 年相比,上半年獲利強勁的結果。我們預計今年剩餘時間調整後的銷售、一般行政費用率將與第二季相對一致。第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 6,840 萬美元,比去年同期成長 18%。

  • Our adjusted EBITDA to net sales ratio during the quarter was 18%, which compares favorably to 15.3% a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA was driven by a positive mix of price cost, product mix in HPS, and efficient operations, which drove healthy margins as low COGS flowed through our income statement.

    本季調整後的 EBITDA 與淨銷售額比率為 18%,優於一年前的 15.3%。調整後的 EBITDA 是由價格成本、HPS 產品組合和高效運營的積極組合推動的,這推動了健康的利潤率,因為我們的損益表中的銷貨成本較低。

  • Now let me turn to cash flow. For the 26 weeks ended June 29, 2024, operating activities generated $76.5 million of cash as compared to $115 million in the year ago period. Remember, during 2023, we were able to reduce our net inventories by over $100 million throughout the year as we return to normal inventory levels.

    現在讓我談談現金流。截至 2024 年 6 月 29 日的 26 週,經營活動產生了 7,650 萬美元的現金,而去年同期為 1.15 億美元。請記住,2023 年,隨著我們恢復到正常庫存水平,我們全年的淨庫存減少了超過 1 億美元。

  • Capital expenditures totaled $40.1 million for the first half of the year. That's compared to $37 million in the prior year period. We continue to invest in high-margin RDS business and also have partnered with one of our top five customers to share in the cost of our four-year plan to reset the entire hardware set across the country. This includes all new racking and displays for Hillman products in their hardware department. Our team has already completed 140 resets and the new outlook is awesome.

    今年上半年的資本支出總額為 4,010 萬美元。相比之下,去年同期為 3,700 萬美元。我們繼續投資高利潤的 RDS 業務,並與我們的前五名客戶之一合作,分擔我們在全國範圍內重置整個硬體集的四年計劃的成本。這包括其硬體部門中 Hillman 產品的所有新貨架和顯示器。我們的團隊已經完成了 140 次重置,新的外觀非常棒。

  • Free cash flow for the first half of 2024 totaled $36.4 million compared to $78 million in the prior-year period. For the quarter, free cash flow was $42.5 million, an increase from a use of $6 million in the first quarter.

    2024 年上半年的自由現金流總計 3,640 萬美元,而去年同期為 7,800 萬美元。本季自由現金流為 4,250 萬美元,較第一季的 600 萬美元增加。

  • Now the balance sheet, we ended the second quarter of 2024 with $705.3 million of total net debt outstanding. This is a $17 million improvement versus the end of 2023 and a $108 million improvement from the year ago quarter. And importantly, this included $22 million of debt that we paid off relating to the Koch acquisition that we completed in January of this year.

    現在來看資產負債表,截至 2024 年第二季末,我們的未償淨債務總額為 7.053 億美元。與 2023 年底相比,增加了 1,700 萬美元,與去年同期相比,增加了 1.08 億美元。重要的是,這包括我們償還的與今年 1 月完成的 Koch 收購相關的 2,200 萬美元債務。

  • As Doug mentioned earlier, our net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA ratio at the end of the quarter was 2.9 times compared to 3.3 times at the end of 2023 and 4 times just a year ago, driving improvement with the aforementioned improvement in net debt and a $40 million or 20% increase in our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA.

    正如 Doug 先前所提到的,本季末我們的淨負債與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 比率為 2.9 倍,而 2023 年底為 3.3 倍,一年前為 4 倍,推動了上述淨負債改善的改善。債務以及過去12 個月調整後EBITDA 增加4,000 萬美元或20%。

  • Looking forward, we still maintain our expectation that we end 2024 around 2.7 times net leverage. As Doug mentioned earlier, we have a few changes to our full-year 2024 guidance. We are reducing our full-year net sales to be between $1.44 billion to $1.48 billion with a midpoint of $1.46 billion. This midpoint assumes a 1% headwind from price, a 2% lift from new business wins, and a 3% lift from the Koch acquisition. These are not changed from our original guide. However, we are guiding for the market being down about 5% versus our original expectation of down 1%.

    展望未來,我們仍維持 2024 年底淨槓桿率約 2.7 倍的預期。正如 Doug 之前提到的,我們對 2024 年全年指導進行了一些更改。我們將全年淨銷售額削減至 14.4 億美元至 14.8 億美元之間,中間值為 14.6 億美元。這個中點假設價格出現 1% 的逆風,新業務獲勝帶來 2% 的提升,科氏收購帶來 3% 的提升。這些內容與我們原來的指南相比沒有改變。然而,我們預期市場將下跌 5% 左右,而我們最初的預期是下跌 1%。

  • We define the market as excluding new business wins. As you know, we do not control the market, and this is the driver of our updated net sales guidance. Altogether, our new net sales midpoint guide implies 1% decrease versus 2023.

    我們將市場定義為不包括新業務的勝利。如您所知,我們不控制市場,這是我們更新淨銷售指引的驅動力。總而言之,我們新的淨銷售額中點指南意味著與 2023 年相比下降 1%。

  • Despite the top line pressure, we are increasing our full-year 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance to be between $240 million to $250 million with a midpoint of $245 million. This midpoint represents an increase of about 12% versus 2023.

    儘管面臨營收壓力,我們仍將 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 指引提高至 2.4 億美元至 2.5 億美元之間,中間值為 2.45 億美元。這個中點代表與 2023 年相比成長了約 12%。

  • We expect the operational efficiencies, margin management, and mix improvements that Doug and JMA mentioned to continue throughout the year, which would deliver strong margins and a strong bottom line. Lastly, we are maintaining our full-year 2024 free cash flow of $100 million to $120 million with a midpoint of $110 million.

    我們預計 Doug 和 JMA 提到的營運效率、利潤管理和組合改善將在全年持續下去,這將帶來強勁的利潤和強勁的利潤。最後,我們將 2024 年全年自由現金流維持在 1 億至 1.2 億美元之間,中位數為 1.1 億美元。

  • Our increased expectations for adjusted EBITDA offset our revised top line expectations resulting in the reiteration of the guide. More information on the assumptions that have driven our guidance is available in our earnings call presentation.

    我們對調整後 EBITDA 的預期增加抵消了我們修訂後的營收預期,導致指南得到重申。有關推動我們指導的假設的更多信息,請參閱我們的財報電話會議演示文稿。

  • Over the last few quarters, we have been saying that even in a down market, our 2024 adjusted EBITDA will increase. As Doug mentioned, this happened in 2009 when our top line was down 5% and our bottom line was up 10%. So far, this year, that seems to be playing out as we have benefited from lower COGS inefficiencies and we control the controls.

    在過去的幾個季度中,我們一直在說,即使在市場低迷的情況下,我們的 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 也會增加。正如 Doug 所提到的,這種情況發生在 2009 年,當時我們的收入下降了 5%,而我們的利潤卻增加了 10%。今年到目前為止,這似乎正在發揮作用,因為我們受益於較低的銷貨成本低效率,我們控制了控制。

  • Looking further out to a healthier macro environment, we believe our long-term growth algorithm remains intact. Historically, our business has seen organic growth of 6% per year and high-single to low-double-digit organic adjusted EBITDA growth before M&A. And now that the M&A switch is turned on, we think long-term top-line growth of high single to low-teens is realistic and adjusted EBITDA growth in the low- to mid-teens is achievable in a healthy macro environment.

    展望更健康的宏觀環境,我們相信我們的長期成長演算法保持不變。從歷史上看,我們的業務每年有機成長 6%,併購前調整後的 EBITDA 有機成長率為高個位數到低兩位數。現在,併購開關已經打開,我們認為,從高單位數到低雙位數的長期營收成長是現實的,並且在健康的宏觀環境下,調整後的EBITDA 在低雙位數到中雙位數的成長是可以實現的。

  • With that, I'll turn it back to Doug.

    有了這個,我會把它轉回給道格。

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Rocky. Before we get to the Q&A session. I want to give some color on the succession planning we announced in a press release just before our earnings this morning.

    謝謝,洛基。在我們進入問答環節之前。我想對我們今天早上發布財報之前在新聞稿中宣布的繼任計劃進行一些說明。

  • Effective January 2025, JMA will step into the CEO role becoming the sixth CEO in Hillman 60-year history. When we hired JMA five years ago, it was our expectations that he would step into the CEO role in due course concern his work ethic, strong leadership background, and the industry experience. Having worked closely with him almost daily, JMA, since then, I can confidently say that we will -- he will do a great job keeping Hillman strong legacy of service and customer-first alive.

    自 2025 年 1 月起,JMA 將接任執行長一職,成為 Hillman 60 年歷史的第六位執行長。五年前,當我們聘請 JMA 時,我們期望他能在適當的時候擔任首席執行官,因為我們考慮到他的職業道德、強大的領導背景和行業經驗。從那時起,JMA,我幾乎每天都與他密切合作,我可以自信地說,我們將——他將出色地保持 Hillman 強大的服務傳統和客戶至上的精神。

  • With the support of the Board of Directors, the entire executive leadership team, this transition has been in the works for the past few years. It was important to me, Rocky, and JMA that we went about this succession plan carefully and in the right way maintaining leadership continuity, minimizing disruptive, and keeping Hillman's goals intact.

    在董事會和整個執行領導團隊的支持下,這項過渡在過去幾年中一直在進行。對我、Rocky 和 ​​JMA 來說,重要的是我們要仔細並以正確的方式製定繼任計劃,以保持領導力的連續性、最大限度地減少破壞性並保持 Hillman 的目標不變。

  • With JMA's promotion, I will step into the Executive Chairman role where I will continue to be active with Hillman but have more time for golf and grandchildren. I will continue to be involved in M&A, maintaining relationships with the investors and key customers and presiding over Board meetings.

    隨著 JMA 的晉升,我將擔任執行主席,繼續與希爾曼一起積極工作,但有更多的時間打高爾夫球和照顧孫子。我將繼續參與併購,維護與投資者和主要客戶的關係,並主持董事會會議。

  • I've been with Hillman for 10 years, and I love this company. I will continue to help Hillman any way I can. JMA will take over with a great team around him with the business in good shape and positioned to grow into a $2 billion company over the next few years.

    我在 Hillman 工作了 10 年,我喜歡這家公司。我將繼續盡我所能幫助希爾曼。JMA 將接手公司,他周圍有一支優秀的團隊,公司業務狀況良好,預計在未來幾年發展成為一家價值 20 億美元的公司。

  • As always, our people are the ones that truly make Hillman the great company it is. I want to thank the Hillman warriors for working together to take great care of our customers and for their loyalty.

    一如既往,我們的員工真正讓 Hillman 成為一家偉大的公司。我要感謝 Hillman 戰士的共同努力,對我們的客戶給予無微不至的照顧,並感謝他們的忠誠。

  • Looking forward, we will continue to widen and deepen our competitive moat, focus on executing our gross strategy profitably, while we maintain discipline across all of our business segments. We firmly believe that this approach will ensure Hillman success in the years to come, and we're very excited about what is on the horizon.

    展望未來,我們將繼續擴大和深化我們的競爭護城河,專注於執行我們的整體策略並實現盈利,同時保持所有業務部門的紀律。我們堅信,這種方法將確保 Hillman 在未來幾年取得成功,我們對即將發生的事情感到非常興奮。

  • This concludes our prepared remarks, and we'll begin the Q&A portion of the call. Gigi, can you open the call up for questions?

    我們準備好的演講到此結束,我們將開始電話會議的問答部分。吉吉,你能打開電話提問嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

    (操作員說明)Matthew Bouley,巴克萊銀行。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hi. Good morning. This is (inaudible) on. On M&A, you spoke to a lot of new -- one especially new prospects, big market or areas you're looking to expand into, particularly, or any more color on that?

    你好。早安.這是(聽不清楚)。在併購方面,您談到了很多新的——特別是新的前景、大市場或您希望擴展的領域,或者對此有更多的看法嗎?

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Obviously, we can't talk about the one we think will close by the end of the third quarter. We're excited about it. It's very much like Koch. But I think the best way to think about it is just go to either end of Hillman's aisle today and walk about 20 feet and you're going to find where we're going next.

    是的。顯然,我們不能談論我們認為將在第三季末結束的項目。我們對此感到興奮。這很像科赫。但我認為最好的思考方式就是今天走到希爾曼過道的兩端,步行約 20 英尺,您就會找到我們下一步要去的地方。

  • And again, if you just think about it, it would come on the same truck potentially, obviously, service by the same folks with the same customers, and our relationships with those customers go way back. So it's just a fun thing to have these conversations because it's not really a competition when we get into a process because once the management team from the company sees what we could do together and how we roll, it is pretty easy to convince them to join us. And we are really excited about the potential.

    再說一次,如果你仔細想想,很明顯,它可能會裝在同一輛卡車上,由同樣的人為同樣的客戶提供服務,而我們與這些客戶的關係可以追溯到很久以前。因此,進行這些對話是一件很有趣的事情,因為當我們進入一個流程時,這並不是真正的競爭,因為一旦公司的管理團隊看到我們可以一起做什麼以及我們如何開展工作,就很容易說服他們加入我們。我們對這種潛力感到非常興奮。

  • But obviously, you've got categories, like we did rope and chain. You have, as we've talked, plumbing and electrical, all kinds of things that are just around the corner that would make sense again. When we talk about that, think about lots of SKUs, tons of complexity, fairly low cost, but they require the Hillman moat to really supercharge.

    但顯然,你有類別,就像我們做繩索和鏈條一樣。正如我們所說,管道和電氣,各種即將再次有意義的東西。當我們談論這一點時,請考慮大量的 SKU、大量的複雜性、相當低的成本,但它們需要 Hillman 護城河才能真正增壓。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Thank you, You kind of mentioned a little bit of softness on the foot traffic or discretionary front. So what exactly is your visibility on home center foot traffic and R&R in general? And what kind of trends have you seen thus far into July and August? Thank you.

    謝謝,您提到了人流或自由支配方面的一點軟弱。那麼,您對家庭中心客流量和 R&R 的整體了解到底是多少?到目前為止,您在 7 月和 8 月看到了哪些趨勢?謝謝。

  • John Adinolfi - Chief Operating Officer

    John Adinolfi - Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah, I'll take that one. So good morning. For foot track perspective, we use some of the same technology and research and insights that some of the big retailers used be use. Now, Placer AI to get a feel on foot traffic. We monitor, I'll say, footsteps in the store. Foot traffic has been challenging at slightly less negative recently. But overall, we see those same concerns facing us and our retail partners, but we feel good about where the business is positioned. We're going to use this time to the focus on growing new categories and taking new business.

    是的,我會接受那個。早安.對於足跡視角,我們使用了一些與一些大型零售商相同的技術、研究和見解。現在,Placer AI 可以了解人流。我會說,我們監控商店裡的腳步聲。最近客流量的負值略有減輕,一直面臨挑戰。但總的來說,我們和我們的零售合作夥伴也面臨著同樣的擔憂,但我們對業務定位感到滿意。我們將利用這段時間專注於發展新類別和開展新業務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

    瑞恩·梅克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

  • Ryan Merkel - Analyst

    Ryan Merkel - Analyst

  • Hi, everyone. Congrats, Doug and JMA.

    大家好。恭喜道格和 JMA。

  • Doug, you mentioned that the market feels like 2009, and you lowered the market outlook now to down 5%. So what is surprising you this year? And is the solution lower rates? Or is there anything else that you're looking at?

    Doug,您提到市場感覺就像 2009 年,您現在將市場前景下調至 5%。那麼今年有什麼事情讓你感到驚訝呢?解決方案是降低費率嗎?或是您還在看其他什麼嗎?

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • You know, I think it's -- what's really surprised me this year, Ryan, was everybody kind of got it in January and February and then March was kind of like, woah, put your seat belts on, here we go. And then it's just a dead cat bounce at that point. It was just the -- that's probably the surprising thing. I think the retailers really felt like April, May, here we go, and it just kind of stayed the same.

    你知道,我認為今年真正讓我驚訝的是,Ryan,每個人都在一月和二月得到了它,然後三月有點像,哇,係好安全帶,讓我們開始吧。然後就只是死貓般的彈跳。這可能就是令人驚訝的事。我認為零售商真的感覺四月、五月,我們開始了,而且一切都保持不變。

  • You know from our standpoint to break it down, the professional, the pickup truck pros hang in tough, smaller projects but still busy. And the DIY is the one that's really fallen off, I think, from an activity standpoint. That has to be, if you just think about the logic, existing home sales impacted for sure, and we're seeing that in pet tags and in keys.

    你知道,從我們的角度來看,專業人士、皮卡車專業人士都面臨著艱難、較小的項目,但仍然很忙碌。我認為,從活動的角度來看,DIY 是真正落伍的。如果你考慮一下邏輯,那麼一定是這樣的,現有房屋銷售肯定會受到影響,我們在寵物標籤和鑰匙中看到了這一點。

  • But our retail is still kind of good about where we go from here. And as we've been saying, we're going to keep our heads down and perform either way, but it will be nice to see some tailwind. My guess right now is we're not going to see that until we get into the fall.

    但我們的零售業仍處於良好發展階段。正如我們一直所說的,我們將保持低調並以任何方式執行,但很高興看到一些順風。我現在的猜測是,直到進入秋季我們才會看到這一點。

  • Ryan Merkel - Analyst

    Ryan Merkel - Analyst

  • Yeah, I agree. Okay. And then how about the outlook for RDS? I know things are a bit challenged, but what are you assuming for the second half? And I think you said you're going to return to growth in '25; just unpack why you think that's the case.

    是的,我同意。好的。那麼RDS的前景如何?我知道事情有點挑戰,但你對下半年有何假設?我想你說過你將在 25 年恢復成長;只是解開你認為是這樣的原因。

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I mean, I'll tell you this. The great news is we don't have hope as our strategy anymore. We are absolutely in the slot on RDS because RDS is new machine on minuteKEY with the capabilities is exactly what the retailers want and the great thing for retailers is we don't change any space. They don't have to do anything, and we're going to bring them revenue and happy customers.

    是的。我的意思是,我會告訴你這一點。好消息是我們不再將希望作為我們的策略。我們絕對符合 RDS 的要求,因為 RDS 是 分鐘KEY 上的新機器,其功能正是零售商想要的,對零售商來說最棒的是我們不改變任何空間。他們不需要做任何事情,我們將為他們帶來收入和滿意的客戶。

  • And so that's one. Two, that movement at that big customer that we had seen that was really impacting us has worked itself and is working itself through. We feel good about what we've been able to do together with them because it hurt their sales as well.

    這就是其中之一。第二,我們所看到的對我們產生真正影響的大客戶的運動已經發揮作用,並且正在發揮作用。我們對與他們合作所做的事情感到滿意,因為這也損害了他們的銷售。

  • And then three, when you when you really think about the service organization, Redbox liquidation was huge because we're picking up new accounts with no capital, which is Rocky's favor, but my concern, right, and we talked a little about this last time is can we get the people and we just been able to hire Redbox folks really quick and they've been hit the ground running. So that's why we feel very good about where RDS is heading. And again, we struggled for a bit there, but I feel great about '25, when I think that business can do.

    第三,當你真正考慮服務組織時,Redbox 清算是巨大的,因為我們正在獲得沒有資本的新帳戶,這是洛基的青睞,但我擔心,對吧,我們最後討論了一點現在是我們能找到人的時候了,我們很快就僱用了Redbox 人員,而且他們已經開始工作了。這就是為什麼我們對 RDS 的發展方向感到非常滿意。再說一遍,我們在那裡掙扎了一會兒,但我對 25 年感覺很好,因為我認為生意可以做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Butler, Stifel.

    布萊恩巴特勒,斯蒂菲爾。

  • Brian Butler - Analyst

    Brian Butler - Analyst

  • Hey. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Just, I guess, a follow up on that RDS. I think your original goal was 800 machines by 2024, and it sounded like you were going to be much higher than that if you're at 400 and you thought it was going to triple. So maybe a little detail on expectations on what that goes to on '24 of the total rollout and where that ends up in '25, as well as is there any initial color on how the higher-priced kind of auto keys and other items that you can kind of push through the 3.5 are going with the 400 machines that are out there?

    嘿。早安.感謝您提出問題。我想,這只是 RDS 的後續行動。我認為您最初的目標是到 2024 年擁有 800 台機器,如果您的目標是 400 台並且您認為它會增加兩倍,那麼聽起來您的目標會比這個目標高得多。因此,也許可以詳細說明一下 24 年全面推出的預期以及 25 年最終的預期,以及是否有任何關於價格較高的自動鑰匙和其他物品如何影響的初始顏色。 ?

  • John Adinolfi - Chief Operating Officer

    John Adinolfi - Chief Operating Officer

  • Brian, good morning. It's JMA here. Let me hit the machines first. So we're really encouraged and excited. Our Tempe team, this manufacturing machine has been able to continue to ramp and get machines out. So we are taking up your point. We thought would be 800 by year end, will not be closer to 1,200. We feel good about the machine. The team has made some nice and continued improvements to the GUI. We just rolled out endless aisle. So we're going to keep moving that forward with our three, five customers that are out there.

    布萊恩,早安。這裡是 JMA。讓我先敲一下機器。所以我們真的很受鼓舞和興奮。我們的坦佩團隊,這台製造機器已經能夠繼續提高產量並生產機器。所以我們正在考慮你的觀點。我們原以為到年底會達到 800 家,不會接近 1,200 家。我們對這台機器感覺很好。團隊對 GUI 進行了一些不錯的持續改進。我們剛剛推出了無盡的過道。因此,我們將繼續與我們的三、五個客戶一起推動這項進程。

  • So we feel excited -- we're excited about it. We're seeing some nice, I'll say, improvement in the technology in a couple of things. One, you mentioned the auto keys. We are starting to see some traction. That will be limited, or I'll say, be throttled by our ability to put key tax and service those markets, which we're going to be doing in '25 and beyond.

    所以我們感到興奮——我們對此感到興奮。我想說,我們在一些方面看到了一些不錯的技術改進。一,你提到了自動鍵。我們開始看到一些吸引力。這將是有限的,或者我會說,會受到我們對這些市場徵收關鍵稅收和服務的能力的限制,而我們將在 25 年及以後這樣做。

  • But I would say the other piece of it is the endless aisle we just turned on. It's interesting. We're starting to get some traction, but it's also been the fact that our key is being -- even home and office is performing better in the new machine than the old. And we're really excited about that. So those three things are really helping us feel very excited and bullish. And we're putting a little more capital work this year because the customers want them and the end users market machines.

    但我想說的是,它的另一部分是我們剛剛打開的無盡的過道。這很有趣。我們開始受到一些關注,但事實上我們的關鍵是——即使是家庭和辦公室在新機器上的表現也比舊機器更好。我們對此感到非常興奮。所以這三件事確實讓我們感到非常興奮和樂觀。今年我們將投入更多的資本工作,因為客戶需要它們,而最終用戶也需要銷售機器。

  • Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yeah. Hey, Brian. It's Rocky. The only thing I would add to what JMA said is remember, many of these that we're doing this year are conversions from 3.0 to 3.5. It's not full machine built, so that's much less expensive. And obviously, we can throttle that a lot quicker than you could throttle to build a new machine.

    是的。嘿,布萊恩。這是洛基。我對 JMA 所說的唯一要補充的是,請記住,我們今年所做的許多工作都是從 3.0 到 3.5 的轉換。它不是完整的機器製造,所以便宜得多。顯然,我們可以比你建造新機器更快地限制它。

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, and we played offense there, Ryan, because -- Brian, because Rocky ordered up all of the retro fits, and said, hey, for the money for the retrofit, let's not make that be the governor, and we're glad that we did. The plant went ahead and ordered them all. So we don't have this issue of can we. It's a matter of kind of when our people can. And customers are saying go, and that's always a good sign. I do think the fun news about what's happening right now as we have them in stores that have the 3.0 in the same zip code right now.

    好吧,我們在那裡進攻,瑞安,因為——布萊恩,因為洛基訂購了所有的復古套裝,並說,嘿,為了改造的錢,我們不要讓他成為州長,我們很高興我們做到了。工廠繼續進行並訂購了所有這些產品。所以我們不存在「我們可以嗎」這個問題。這只是我們的人民何時能夠做到的問題。客戶說走吧,這總是一個好兆頭。我確實認為現在發生的事情是一個有趣的消息,因為我們現在在同一郵遞區號的 3.0 商店裡有它們。

  • And again, as JMA said, the GUI screens much improved consumer. Time at the screen has improved. And while we're not yet rolling the SmartFob, because of the key tech. We want to make sure we -- as we've always said, we're going to go so that the transponder is pretty interesting. Consumer gets a $38 to $74 key. We ship it to their house. They're happy. We're happy. And the retailers are like, wow, I don't have to do anything. So it's a win-win.

    正如 JMA 所說,GUI 螢幕再次大大改善了消費者的體驗。盯著螢幕的時間有所改善。雖然我們還沒有推出 SmartFob,但由於關鍵技術的原因。我們想確保——正如我們一直說的那樣,我們將讓應答器變得非常有趣。消費者可獲得價值 38 至 74 美元的鑰匙。我們把它運送到他們家。他們很高興。我們很高興。零售商就像,哇,我不需要做任何事。所以這是雙贏的。

  • Brian Butler - Analyst

    Brian Butler - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then on the follow-up, just going back to the kind of the price cost spread. I mean, in a normal environment, I completely understand how that margins bounce back and you get to a more normalized growth on revenue and EBITDA. But if we remain in a weaker environment, how should we think about price cost rolling into 2025 if the macro is not a tailwind?

    好的。偉大的。然後在後續方面,回到價格成本價差的問題。我的意思是,在正常環境下,我完全理解利潤率如何反彈,以及營收和 EBITDA 實現更正常化的成長。但如果我們仍然處於疲軟的環境中,如果宏觀經濟不是順風車,我們應該如何考慮進入 2025 年的價格成本?

  • Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • I think we feel really good -- it's Rocky again -- about our margins. And here's the reason. One, I think we've reset the baseline around what this business should do. Historically, 44% to 45%. I think we're going to live above 46% for the foreseeable future just because structurally in the business.

    我認為我們對我們的利潤率感覺非常好——又是洛基。原因如下。第一,我認為我們已經圍繞著該業務應該做什麼重新設定了基準。從歷史上看,為 44% 至 45%。我認為,在可預見的未來,我們的成長率將高於 46%,只是因為業務結構是如此。

  • The other thing that will make sense to you, Brian, is as you think about our RDS business has really been more challenged than the rest of the business and it commands a much higher gross and EBITDA rate. And so as we see that business not only getting back to kind of parity but also growing again, that's going to help support the margins as we think about the future and so we feel really good again about where we are. We sit on the call. We think we stay above 47% for the remainder of the year, and I truly believe we stay in the ballpark for the foreseeable future in that kind of range.

    Brian,對您來說有意義的另一件事是,您認為我們的 RDS 業務確實比其他業務面臨更大的挑戰,而且它的毛利率和 EBITDA 率要高得多。因此,當我們看到業務不僅恢復到某種程度的平價,而且再次成長時,這將有助於在我們思考未來時支撐利潤,因此我們再次對自己的處境感到非常滿意。我們正在聽電話。我們認為,在今年剩餘時間內,我們的成長率將保持在 47% 以上,而且我堅信,在可預見的未來,我們將保持在這個範圍內。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lee Jagoda, CJS.

    李·賈戈達,CJS。

  • Lee Jagoda - Analyst

    Lee Jagoda - Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning. So I guess, I'll say my congrats for Doug till he is almost out the door.

    你好。早安.所以我想,我會祝賀道格,直到他快要出門了。

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • I never thought JMA was going to help my golf game so much.

    我從未想過 JMA 會對我的高爾夫比賽有如此大的幫助。

  • Lee Jagoda - Analyst

    Lee Jagoda - Analyst

  • Well, stay out of the woods, if you can. Just starting with the Koch new business wins. Can you give us a sense for what type of customer that was with? And if it wasn't one of the sort of the big two, is that an opportunity? And how large an opportunity could that be for Koch and for you?

    好吧,如果可以的話,請遠離樹林。科赫新業務的勝利才剛開始。您能否讓我們了解一下該客戶屬於什麼類型?如果它不是兩大巨頭之一,這是否是一個機會?這對科赫和你來說有多大的機會?

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • So it does sound like coke, but it's Koch. But we'll be selling three of our top five accounts in that category, Lee, I believe in the 12-month period coming up. So it will be three of the top five, and I could be more, but I'm confident three of the top five will see growth.

    所以它聽起來確實像可樂,但它是科赫。但我們將出售該類別中前 5 個帳戶中的 3 個,Lee,我相信在接下來的 12 個月內。因此,這將是前五名中的三名,我可能會更多,但我相信前五名中的三名將看到增長。

  • Lee Jagoda - Analyst

    Lee Jagoda - Analyst

  • And is the $10 million one of those three? Or is that all of those three?

    1000 萬美元是這三者之一嗎?還是這三個都是這樣?

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • Just one.

    只有一個。

  • Lee Jagoda - Analyst

    Lee Jagoda - Analyst

  • And I guess at that one customer, what share are you getting -- like what does that represent in terms of the share you're getting?

    我猜想,對於那位客戶,您獲得了多少份額——就您獲得的份額而言,這代表什麼?

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I think, we don't give the share. But the funny part of that one, to me, I mean, the day we announced it was the week that the line review was coming due. And when they saw the announcement, they held the line review up. And I don't think I can say anything other than that that says when Hillman comes into a category, it makes it easier for customers to make a change because in this case, this is such a complicated category. You do not want to make a change, if you don't have the service organization that's going to clean up the store and make sure you can reset stores. The reset ability, Lee, of our troops in this example was the whole thing. Can we reset that -- those shelves with a new set, with new thinking? Yes. And without that, nobody is going to take that risk.

    是的。我想,我們不給份額。但其中有趣的部分,對我來說,我的意思是,我們宣布這一周是線路審查到期的那一天。當他們看到公告時,他們推遲了線路審查。我想我不能說什麼,除了說當 Hillman 進入一個類別時,它會讓客戶更容易做出改變,因為在這種情況下,這是一個非常複雜的類別。如果您沒有能夠清理商店並確保可以重置商店的服務組織,您就不想進行更改。在這個例子中,我們部隊的重置能力,李,就是全部。我們能否重新設定那些架子上的新套裝、新思維?是的。如果沒有這一點,沒有人會冒這個風險。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian McNamara, Canaccord Genuity.

    麥克納馬拉 (Brian McNamara),Canaccord Genuity。

  • Brian McNamara - Analyst

    Brian McNamara - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking our questions. Congrats to JMA on the promotion and Doug for some more time for golf and the grandkids. I guess, first off, apart from different leadership styles, obviously, there's anything fundamentally changed within the company with this handoff. If anything, JMA, how will your approach be different?

    嗨,早上好,夥計們。感謝您回答我們的問題。恭喜 JMA 晉升,恭喜道格有更多時間打高爾夫球和照顧孫子。我想,首先,除了不同的領導風格之外,顯然,這次交接使公司內部發生了根本性的變化。如果有的話,JMA,您的方法將有何不同?

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I mean, the guy with the best seat for that is Rocky. Why don't you comment on that?

    嗯,我的意思是,坐在最好位置的人是洛基。為什麼不對此發表評論?

  • Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • It's a good question. What I would tell you is we've been running this business together for the last four or five years. So while there will be a different person in the chair and Doug will be doing a little more cheerleading than doing day-to-day, we don't see anything changing strategically, we don't see anything changing in how we run this business day-to-day.

    這是一個好問題。我要告訴你的是,過去四、五年來我們一直一起經營這項業務。因此,雖然椅子上會有不同的人,道格將比日常工作做更多的啦啦隊工作,但我們沒有看到任何戰略上的變化,我們沒有看到我們經營這項業務的方式有任何變化日復一日。

  • And the other thing I would say is we were very thoughtful in how we structure the organization below JMA coming into this year, and we made some changes so that we're ready for the next run. And we're all highly confident not only in JMA and Doug as Executive Chairman, but also in the team that we put in place below JMA.

    我要說的另一件事是,我們在今年如何建立 JMA 下面的組織方面考慮得非常周到,並且我們做了一些改變,以便為下一次運行做好準備。我們不僅對 JMA 和擔任執行主席的道格充滿信心,而且對我們在 JMA 之下組建的團隊也充滿信心。

  • Brian McNamara - Analyst

    Brian McNamara - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And then secondly, I guess, on M&A, a transaction is expected to close by the end of Q3, are there others in the pipeline that you're considering that we can expect over the next several months? And Rocky, how should this transaction and maybe the other ones contemplated in the pipeline impact your leverage ratio targets?

    知道了。這很有幫助。其次,我想,在併購方面,一項交易預計將在第三季末完成,您是否正在考慮我們在未來幾個月內可以期待的其他交易?Rocky,這筆交易以及可能正在醞釀的其他交易應該如何影響您的槓桿率目標?

  • Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yeah, let me start with the leverage, I mean, they're going to look a lot like Koch. And so I think, Koch move the leverage up like two-tenths of a percent or something like that. So that's what you would expect. But these businesses are all going to come -- also come with EBITDA, and as Doug said, natural synergies. And so on a pro forma basis, I think they're going to be close to leverage neutral and quickly will -- if we do put any leverage on, even if it's small amounts, we intend to pay it down, like Koch, right? You saw we borrowed money to buy Koch early in the year. We've already paid that debt off.

    是的,讓我從槓桿開始,我的意思是,他們看起來很像科赫。所以我認為,科赫將槓桿提高了十分之二或類似的水平。這就是您所期望的。但這些業務都會隨之而來,而且還會帶來 EBITDA,正如道格所說,自然會產生協同效應。因此,在形式上,我認為他們將接近槓桿中性,而且很快就會——如果我們確實施加任何槓桿,即使數額很小,我們也會像科赫一樣,將其償還,對吧?你看到我們年初借錢收購了科赫。我們已經還清了這筆債務。

  • I think we still would plan to be around 2.7 times at the end of the year, even if we do this acquisition. Could it mean we got (inaudible) sure, but it isn't something that's going to put any amount of leverage of any significance on the business.

    我認為即使我們進行這次收購,我們仍然計劃在年底實現 2.7 倍左右。這是否意味著我們已經(聽不清楚)確定了,但這不會對業務產生任何重要的影響力。

  • And to your question about pipeline, yeah, I mean, again, there are a lot of opportunities when you think about what we do, what could be put on the trucks, what could be service at the shelf. They're out there and again and it's very interesting that it seems like in this sweet spot of, call it, $4 million to $8 million of EBITDA. There seems to be a lot of businesses with a lot of entrepreneurs who seemingly are at the end of the road and want to think about family estate planning and so. I think we're going to be very successful in doing two or three of these a year.

    至於你關於管道的問題,是的,我的意思是,當你思考我們所做的事情,什麼可以放在卡車上,什麼可以在貨架上提供服務時,會有很多機會。他們一次又一次地出現,非常有趣的是,它似乎處於 400 萬至 800 萬美元 EBITDA 的最佳位置。似乎有很多企業和很多企業家似乎已經走到了路的盡頭,想要考慮家庭遺產規劃等等。我認為我們每年做兩到三件事將會非常成功。

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I think, Brian, the thing Rocky just said that pipeline looks good and this is -- that's before private equity start selling the stuff, right, because they haven't been active on either side, which is an advantage to us. But there will be quite a few things come in as well. But no, it's really solid right now and we're in a nice position to take advantage of. And again, it doesn't take long for them to see why maybe Hellman would be the choice.

    是的,我想,布萊恩,洛基剛才說的管道看起來不錯,這是在私募股權開始出售這些東西之前,對吧,因為他們在任何一方都沒有活躍,這對我們來說是一個優勢。但也會有很多東西進來。但不,它現在真的很穩固,我們處於一個很好的位置可以利用。再次,他們很快就明白為什麼赫爾曼會成為選擇。

  • Brian McNamara - Analyst

    Brian McNamara - Analyst

  • And if I could just squeeze in one last one on your guidance adjustment. Obviously, it's all market related. A minus one to minus five feels like a huge delta, but I don't want to put words in your mouth. Doesn't feel like just -- from talking to you guys over the last six months, it doesn't feel like a huge surprise to you. Is that fair? And what's changed compared to 90 days ago?

    如果我能在你的指導調整中擠進最後一項。顯然,這一切都與市場有關。負一到負五感覺就像一個巨大的增量,但我不想把話放在你嘴裡。感覺不只是——從過去六個月與你們的交談來看,這對你們來說並不是一個巨大的驚喜。這樣公平嗎?與 90 天前相比,發生了什麼變化?

  • Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yeah, I know. If you go back 90 days ago, I guess what I would say is as we looked at our major customers and what they had said about the back half and you all heard us say we hope they were right and we were going to be more cautious than they were. It just remains soft. As I think JMA commented on a minute ago and we're projecting that the market remains soft the rest of the year.

    是的,我知道。如果你回到 90 天前,我想我會說的是,當我們查看我們的主要客戶以及他們對後半部分的看法時,你們都聽到我們說我們希望他們是對的,我們會更加謹慎比他們原來的樣子。它只是保持柔軟。正如我認為 JMA 一分鐘前評論的那樣,我們預計今年剩餘時間市場將保持疲軟。

  • Again, I'm hopeful that we do get some tailwind and maybe the Fed does a couple of rate cuts. And that gives us some relief on housing. If that happens, that's obviously going to be upside to what we've guided to. But at this point, there's -- we just don't see any benefit in guiding to anything, but what we're seeing now in the market.

    再次,我希望我們確實能得到一些順風,也許聯準會會降息幾次。這讓我們在住房方面得到了一些緩解。如果發生這種情況,這顯然將有利於我們的指導。但在這一點上,我們只是看不到任何指導的好處,但我們現在在市場上看到的是這樣的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lee Jagoda, CJS.

    李·賈戈達,CJS。

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • Lee, you got pancaked. I'm glad you're back.

    李,你被煎餅了。我很高興你回來了。

  • Lee Jagoda - Analyst

    Lee Jagoda - Analyst

  • I'm back. So can you just speak to where we are in the evolution of the large customer that's repositioning your RDS machines? And how many quarters of headwind do we have left before it turns into a neutral and potentially a positive?

    我回來了。那麼,您能否談談我們在重新定位您的 RDS 機器的大客戶的發展過程中所處的位置?在逆風轉為中性並可能帶來正面影響之前,我們還剩下多少個季度的逆風?

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I would say that based on where we are right now, it's probably neutral for one quarter and then I think we start to see it tick up.

    是的,我想說,根據我們現在的情況,它可能在一個季度內保持中性,然後我認為我們開始看到它上升。

  • Lee Jagoda - Analyst

    Lee Jagoda - Analyst

  • And then, on the new 3.5 machines, given that a lot of the stuff in there has higher ASPs, how should we think about incremental margins on the newer stuff versus the 40% to 60% incremental margins that we've been used to on the self-service key business?

    然後,在新的 3.5 機器上,考慮到其中的許多產品都有更高的 ASP,我們應該如何考慮新產品的增量利潤與我們已經習慣的 40% 到 60% 的增量利潤自助關鍵業務?

  • Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • They could be really close to same, Lee. We set everything that we've done in this business. We've set up to be at or above existing fleet when you think about EBITDA rate. So different products going to have a little bit different gross margin profile, but everything is set up to be at the same EBITDA rate. And again, as you think about, as Doug said, some of the service offerings that the team he's now working on or entered into, those have basically no COGS and they basically have no capital. So it's really it's a service related opportunity that, again, is going to generate a really, really nice EBITDA rate for the business.

    他們可能真的很接近,李。我們在這個行業所做的一切都是我們設定的。當您考慮 EBITDA 費率時,我們已將其設定為等於或高於現有機隊。因此,不同的產品的毛利率狀況會略有不同,但一切都設定為相同的 EBITDA 費率。再說一遍,正如道格所說,他的團隊現在正在開發或參與的一些服務產品基本上沒有銷售成本,基本上沒有資本。因此,這確實是一個與服務相關的機會,它將再次為企業帶來非常非常好的 EBITDA 率。

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • Lee, one thing, just to be clear, the service would be, for example, the Redbox type. So the one thing we're not planning on is when we start to see SmartFobs being program and we are doing it. But that starts to ramp -- we will make sure that the experience for the consumers there, but we will not make -- we're not attempting to make great margins on that side of the service. We're planning on taking care of the customer and not losing any money, make margins on the actual sale. That's (inaudible) when we talk about it. Lee, that's the only math that I just don't see it as a -- if we do it right, we will -- we make a little money on that side of it, but we're not looking to make the margins on that piece of the service. That's the only piece.

    Lee,有一件事,需要澄清的是,該服務可以是 Redbox 類型。因此,我們沒有計劃的一件事是當我們開始看到 SmartFobs 被編程並且我們正在這樣做時。但這開始增加——我們將確保那裡的消費者的體驗,但我們不會——我們不會試圖在服務的這一方面獲得巨大的利潤。我們計劃照顧客戶,不損失任何金錢,在實際銷售中賺取利潤。這就是我們談論它的時候(聽不清楚)。李,這是唯一一個我不認為它是——如果我們做對了,我們會——我們在這方面賺了一點錢,但我們不希望在這方面賺取利潤的數學。這是唯一的一塊。

  • Lee Jagoda - Analyst

    Lee Jagoda - Analyst

  • And then one last one for me. Just on the Canadian business, obviously, you highlighted the market being weak there and some FX headwinds. Was there any other timing issues on a year-over-year basis? And as we look out to Q3 sequentially versus Q2, how should we think about revenue trends and margin trends there?

    然後是最後一張給我的。顯然,就加拿大業務而言,您強調了那裡的市場疲軟和一些外匯逆風。與去年同期相比是否還有其他時間問題?當我們依序觀察第三季和第二季時,我們應該如何考慮那裡的營收趨勢和利潤率趨勢?

  • Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

    Robert Kraft - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer

  • Yeah. I would say there's nothing unusual there, Lee. I mean the Canadian market is just softer than the US. There's a lot more, I would say, European type mortgages and there's a lot more debt on the typical consumer in Canada than there is in the US. So they've taken this kind of a downdraft worse than here. And so I think, we like our Canadian business. We think it's going to continue to maintain kind of the 10% EBITDA range and we've challenged them to have north of that. But it's going to be a -- -- we think it's going to be tough sliding for the rest of the year in Canada.

    是的。我想說,李,這沒什麼不尋常的。我的意思是加拿大市場比美國市場更疲軟。我想說的是,歐洲類型的抵押貸款要多得多,而且加拿大典型消費者的債務比美國多得多。所以他們所承受的這種下降趨勢比這裡更嚴重。所以我認為,我們喜歡我們的加拿大業務。我們認為它將繼續維持 10% 的 EBITDA 範圍,並且我們已經向他們提出挑戰,要求他們達到更高的水平。但我們認為加拿大今年剩餘時間將經歷艱難的下滑。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the Q&A portion of today's call. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Cahill for some closing comments.

    今天電話會議的問答部分到此結束。我想將電話轉回給卡希爾先生,請他發表一些結束語。

  • Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

    Douglas Cahill - Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Gigi. Thanks again, everyone for joining us this morning. We look forward to updating you on our progress this fall. Thanks, everybody.

    謝謝你,吉吉。再次感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們期待向您通報今年秋天的最新進展。謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • You may now disconnect.

    您現在可以斷開連線。