Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the fourth quarter 2023 results and full year 2024 guidance presentation for Hillman Solutions Corp. My name is Towanda, and I will be your conference call operator today. Before we begin, I would like to remind our listeners today's presentation is being recorded and simultaneously webcast. The company's earnings release, earnings presentation and 10-K were issued this morning. These documents and a replay of today's presentation can be accessed on Hillman's Investor Relations website at ir.hillmangroup.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Koehler with Hillman. Sir, you may begin.

早上好，歡迎觀看 Hillman Solutions Corp 的 2023 年第四季度業績和 2024 年全年指導演示。在我們開始之前，我想提醒我們的聽眾今天的演示正在錄製並同時進行網路直播。該公司今天上午發布了盈利報告、盈利報告和 10-K。這些文件和今天示範的重播可在 Hillman 投資者關係網站 ir.hillmangroup.com 上取得。現在我想將會議轉交給邁克爾·科勒和希爾曼。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Towanda. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I am Michael Koehler, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Joining me on today's call are Doug Cahill, our Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; Rocky Kraft, our Chief Financial Officer; and John Michael Adinolfi, our Chief Operating Officer.

謝謝你，托旺達。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。我是麥可‧科勒 (Michael Koehler)，投資者關係與財務部副總裁。參加今天電話會議的還有我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Doug Cahill； Rocky Kraft，我們的財務長；和我們的營運長約翰·邁克爾·阿迪諾爾菲 (John Michael Adinolfi)。

Before we begin, I would like to remind our audience that certain statements made on today's call may be considered forward looking and are subject to Safe Harbor provisions of applicable securities laws. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, assumptions, and other factors, many of which are beyond the company's control and may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in such statements. Some of the factors that could influence our results are contained in our periodic and annual reports filed with the SEC. For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties, please see slide 2 in our earnings call slide presentation, which is available on our website at ir.hillmangroup.com.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒我們的聽眾，今天電話會議中所做的某些陳述可能被視為前瞻性的，並受到適用證券法的安全港條款的約束。這些前瞻性陳述並非對未來績效的保證，並受到某些風險、不確定性、假設和其他因素的影響，其中許多因素超出了公司的控制範圍，並可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中預測的結果存在重大差異。一些可能影響我們結果的因素包含在我們向 SEC 提交的定期報告和年度報告中。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱我們的財報電話會議幻燈片演示文稿中的幻燈片 2，該演示文稿可在我們的網站 ir.hillmangroup.com 上獲取。

In addition, on today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding our use of and reconciliations of these measures to our GAAP results are available in our earnings call slide presentation. With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to our Chairman, President and CEO, Doug Cahill. Doug?

此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們將提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關我們使用這些措施以及將這些措施與我們的 GAAP 結果進行協調的信息，請參閱我們的收益電話會議幻燈片演示。至此，我很高興將電話轉給我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Doug Cahill。道格？

Thanks, Michael. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Before we get into our healthy 2023 results and our '24 guidance, I want to take a moment to recognize the rich legacy that this company was built on as we celebrate our 60th anniversary this year. In 1964, The Hillman Bolt & Screw Corporation was founded by Max Hillman in Cincinnati. Back then, the company got its start by distributing fasteners to independent hardware stores in Southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky. Max grew his business every year due to his relentless commitment to taking care of its customers, a commitment that's ingrained in how we do business today.

謝謝，麥可。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。在我們討論 2023 年的健康表現和 24 年的指導之前，我想花點時間認識這家公司在今年慶祝成立 60 週年之際所建立的豐富遺產。1964 年，Max Hillman 在辛辛那提創立了 Hillman Bolt & Screw Corporation。當時，該公司透過向俄亥俄州南部和肯塔基州北部的獨立五金店分銷緊固件起家。由於他不懈地致力於照顧客戶，Max 的業務每年都在成長，這項承諾已根深蒂固地融入我們今天的業務經營方式。

As Max neared retirement, his sons, Mick and Rick took the reins of the company during the 80s. The business continued to grow every year, and it was during the 90s that the two brothers doubled down on their dad's commitment to customer service and started Hillman's field sales and service team. Today, this team consists of 1,100 members, and it is the key component of our competitive moat. Building an organization like this from scratch today would be nearly impossible. This field sales and service team enables us to build another key part of the Hillman moat, shipping our products directly to our customers' retail locations, bypassing their distribution networks all together.

當 Max 接近退休時，他的兒子 Mick 和 Rick 在 80 年代接管了公司。公司業務每年都在持續成長，正是在 90 年代，兩兄弟加倍履行了父親對客戶服務的承諾，成立了 Hillman 的現場銷售和服務團隊。如今，這個團隊由 1,100 名成員組成，是我們競爭護城河的關鍵組成部分。今天從頭開始建立一個這樣的組織幾乎是不可能的。這個現場銷售和服務團隊使我們能夠建立 Hillman 護城河的另一個關鍵部分，將我們的產品直接運送到客戶的零售地點，繞過他們的分銷網絡。

These two differentiators have allowed Hillman to become one of the largest value added partners for hardware and home improvement retailers throughout North America. It also enabled Hillman to grow its sales every year, but one over the last 60 years. Mick and Rick ran the company for over 30 years until they retired in 2013 and 2012, respectively. From there, we have continued to do things the Hillman way by remaining committed to building on the legacy of service that Max Hillman began 60 years ago.

這兩個優勢使 Hillman 成為整個北美硬體和家居裝修零售商最大的增值合作夥伴之一。它還使 Hillman 的銷售額逐年增長，而且是過去 60 年的增長。Mick 和 Rick 經營公司 30 多年，直到 2013 年和 2012 年分別退休。從那時起，我們繼續以 Hillman 的方式做事，繼續致力於發展 Max Hillman 60 年前開始的服務遺產。

This is our true north. I'd like to thank the Hillman team both past and present for building on this rich legacy, including our 1,100 amazing folks in the field, our hard-working employees in our distribution centers throughout North America, and the entire customer support team, which I'm grateful to be part of. After 60 years, we sometimes forget just how solid our business is. Over time, we have earned our customers' trust because of the high level of service and quality we provide, the unique perspective we bring, and our commitment to long-term relationships.

這才是我們真正的北方。我要感謝 Hillman 過去和現在的團隊在這一豐富遺產的基礎上繼續發展，包括我們在該領域的 1,100 名出色的員工、遍布北美配送中心的辛勤工作的員工，以及整個客戶支援團隊，我很高興能成為其中的一員。60 年後，我們有時會忘記我們的業務有多穩固。隨著時間的推移，由於我們提供的高水準服務和品質、我們帶來的獨特視角以及我們對長期合作關係的承諾，我們贏得了客戶的信任。

We win with our customers because of our competitive moat and the unique advantages we bring to the table. Our customers continue to give us new opportunities and simply put, we grow where our customers encourage us to grow. For example, a top five customer of ours, challenged us to enter rope and chain accessories business. Our team worked together with our customer in order to come up with a winning game plan. We flawlessly launched this new business win across our customers' national footprint of stores on a compressed timeline during the second half of 2023.

由於我們的競爭護城河和我們帶來的獨特優勢，我們贏得了客戶的青睞。我們的客戶不斷為我們提供新的機會，簡單地說，我們在客戶鼓勵我們成長的地方成長。例如，我們的一位前五名客戶向我們提出挑戰，要求我們進入繩索和鏈條配件業務。我們的團隊與客戶合作，制定了致勝計畫。我們在 2023 年下半年的壓縮時間內，在客戶遍布全國的商店中完美地推出了這項新的業務勝利。

As a result of the exceptional implementation, we were awarded Vendor of the Year from this customer. Our successful launch in the rope and chain accessory category sparked interest from other customers, while reinforced our decision to acquire Koch Industries, which is in the adjacent rope and chain category. Now, we can take care of the entire rope and chain aisle for our customers. We have the unique ability to help manage the complex skew intensive categories that we're in today.

由於出色的實施，我們被該客戶授予年度供應商獎。我們在繩索和鏈條配件類別中的成功推出引起了其他客戶的興趣，同時堅定了我們收購科赫工業公司（屬於相鄰繩索和鏈條類別）的決定。現在，我們可以為客戶照顧整個繩索和鏈條通道。我們擁有獨特的能力來幫助管理我們今天所處的複雜傾斜密集類別。

Our data driven approach helps optimize the product mix for our customers. In other words, we know what products the DIYer, and pickup truck pro want, and Hillman team ensures these products are on our customers' shelves. This type of partnership is unparalleled, particularly in the traditional hardware channel, where we continue to convert stores to the home and platform and pick up new shelf space with existing customers. Our traditional hardware business makes up about 12,000 hardware stores, it is about 27% of our entire business. It grew 4% last year versus 2022.

我們的數據驅動方法有助於優化客戶的產品組合。換句話說，我們知道 DIY 愛好者和皮卡車專業人士想要什麼產品，Hillman 團隊確保這些產品出現在我們客戶的貨架上。這種類型的合作關係是無與倫比的，特別是在傳統的硬體管道中，我們繼續將商店轉變為家庭和平台，並與現有客戶一起獲取新的貨架空間。我們的傳統五金業務約有12,000家五金店，約占我們整個業務的27%。去年與 2022 年相比成長了 4%。

This is demonstrated by our Hardware Solutions performance over the past 20 years, 10 years, and 5 years where the hardware's top line CAGR has increased 7%, 7.3% and 8.2% respectively. This consistent growth has been fueled organically by new business wins and price, coupled with the acquisitions that supplement organic growth after year one. More recently, over the past three years, we have won an average of $25 million of new business per year in HS alone. We believe we'll exceed that number during 2024 and into the future as we continue to grow with our customers.

我們的硬體解決方案在過去 20 年、10 年和 5 年的表現證明了這一點，其中硬體的營收複合年增長率分別增長了 7%、7.3% 和 8.2%。新業務的贏得和價格以及第一年後補充有機增長的收購有機地推動了這種持續的增長。最近，在過去三年中，僅在 HS 領域，我們每年平均就贏得了 2500 萬美元的新業務。我們相信，隨著我們繼續與客戶一起成長，我們將在 2024 年和未來超過這個數字。

Combining that with our ability to do accretive acquisitions that leverage our moat, gives us great confidence that we will continue to win with our partners. We believe that our runway for growth is meaningful. We build on the 60-year Hillman legacy again in 2023. Operationally, no matter the challenges, this team continues to execute. During the year, we maintained healthy fill rates of over 94% while reducing inventory by over $100 million across our business.

將這一點與我們利用護城河進行增值收購的能力相結合，使我們充滿信心，相信我們將繼續與合作夥伴一起獲勝。我們相信我們的成長跑道是有意義的。2023 年，我們將再次繼承 Hillman 60 年的傳統。在營運上，無論面臨什麼挑戰，該團隊都會繼續執行。這一年裡，我們的填充率維持在 94% 以上，同時整個業務的庫存減少了超過 1 億美元。

We flawlessly launched multiple new business wins ahead of schedule with some of our biggest customers. On their own, these are three sizable accomplishments, however, we did so while moving our distribution hub from Rialto, California to Kansas City in the midst of our busy season, all while overcoming a cyber incident midyear. And importantly, we grew our adjusted EBITDA in our hardware and protective solutions segments by 13.4% over 2022.

我們完美地提前與一些最大的客戶贏得了多項新業務。就其本身而言，這是三項相當大的成就，但是，我們在繁忙季節將配送中心從加利福尼亞州里亞托遷至堪薩斯城，同時克服了年中的網絡事件，從而實現了這一目標。重要的是，我們在硬體和防護解決方案領域的調整後 EBITDA 比 2022 年成長了 13.4%。

Now I'd like to hit our financial highlights for the year before turning it to Rocky for details. I'm pleased with how our team successfully navigated the year. At Hillman, repair, maintenance, and remodel projects done by the DIYer, and pickup truck pro drive our business. US existing home sales totaled just $4.09 million in 2023, which was nearly a 19% decrease from 2022 and a 33% decrease from 2021.

現在我想先介紹一下我們今年的財務亮點，然後再向 Rocky 詢問詳細資訊。我對我們團隊在這一年的成功表現感到滿意。在 Hillman，DIY 愛好者和皮卡車專業人士完成的維修、保養和改造項目推動了我們的業務。2023 年美國現房銷售總額僅 409 萬美元，較 2022 年下降近 19%，較 2021 年下降 33%。

Existing home sales drive all three of our businesses, hardware, protective, and robotics and digital, as home sellers fix up their homes to prepare to sell and home buyers take on projects to turn their new house into their dream home. We nearly offset the soft macro environment by launching a number of new business wins and help with a bit of price early in the year.

現有房屋銷售推動了我們的所有三項業務：硬體、防護、機器人和數位業務，因為房屋賣家裝修房屋以準備出售，而購房者則開展項目將他們的新房子變成他們的夢想家園。我們透過在今年年初推出一些新業務並幫助降低價格，幾乎抵消了疲軟的宏觀環境。

Net sales for 2023 totaled $1.476 billion, which was just shy of our full year 2022 results that included a 53rd week of sales. However, excluding the extra week from 2022, net sales increased by 0.4% and grew for the 59th time in our 60-year history. For 2023, we generated $219.4 million of adjusted EBITDA, an increase of 4.3% from 2022.

2023 年淨銷售額總計 14.76 億美元，略低於我們的 2022 年全年業績（包括第 53 週的銷售額）。然而，排除 2022 年額外一週的影響，淨銷售額成長了 0.4%，這是我們 60 年歷史上的第 59 次成長。2023 年，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 2.194 億美元，比 2022 年成長 4.3%。

With our relatively flat top line, our bottom line increased as adjusted gross margins improved over 120 basis points to 44.2% from 43% during 2022. Further, our adjusted gross margins improved each quarter throughout the year, ending at 48.2% during the fourth quarter, a 400-basis point sequential improvement over the third quarter. We believe we can maintain healthy adjusted gross margin throughout '24, which Rocky will touch on in his guidance section later on.

在我們的收入相對持平的情況下，我們的利潤有所增加，調整後的毛利率從 2022 年的 43% 提高了 120 個基點至 44.2%。此外，我們調整後的毛利率全年每季都有所提高，第四季達到 48.2%，比第三季季增 400 個基點。我們相信我們可以在整個 24 年保持健康的調整後毛利率，Rocky 將在稍後的指導部分中談到這一點。

Now let's touch on the performance of each business for 2023. Hardware Solutions is our biggest business, and it makes up 59% of our overall revenue. This business is the heart and soul of our company, the same way, Max, Mick, and Rick were for 40 years. For the year, hardware sold 3.7% growth compared to 2022 or 4.7% when you exclude the 53rd week. New business wins drove the majority of the increase as we organically grew our share with our customers.

現在讓我們來看看2023年各業務的表現。硬體解決方案是我們最大的業務，占我們總收入的 59%。這項業務是我們公司的核心和靈魂，Max、Mick 和 Rick 40 年來也是如此。與 2022 年相比，今年硬體銷量成長了 3.7%，如果排除第 53 週，則成長 4.7%。隨著我們與客戶的份額有機增長，新業務的勝利推動了大部分成長。

Our Protective Solutions business makes up about 14% of our overall revenue. For the year, Protective revenues decreased 10.7%, however, excluding COVID related PPE sales and 2022's 53rd week, protective revenue decreased just 2.5%. The second half of 2023 was up nearly 10% versus the comparable period, and we finished the year strong in Protective Solutions.

我們的防護解決方案業務約占我們總收入的 14%。今年，防護收入下降了 10.7%，但不包括與新冠病毒相關的個人防護裝備銷售，2022 年第 53 週，防護收入僅下降 2.5%。2023 年下半年，與同期相比成長了近 10%，我們在防護解決方案方面表現強勁。

Thankfully, this should be the last time we talk about COVID. Robotics and Digital Solutions or RDS makes up 17% of our overall revenue. RDS revenue was essentially flat for the year or up 2% excluding the 53rd week, a 10% increase in revenue from our self-serve key duplication kiosk, minuteKEY, offset a relatively soft market.

值得慶幸的是，這應該是我們最後一次談論新冠病毒。機器人和數位解決方案或 RDS 占我們總收入的 17%。RDS 營收今年基本上持平，即成長 2%（不包括第 53 週），我們的自助金鑰複製亭、minkeyKEY 的營收成長了 10%，抵消了相對疲軟的市場。

Looking forward, we remain very encouraged about our high-margin RDS business, especially our new minuteKEY 3.5 kiosk. We are leveraging minuteKEY, the number one, self-serve home and office machine to now include RFID 5 duplication and technology that enables transponder and smart I/O capability. We currently have 40 minuteKEY 3.5 machines in the field and the initial results are encouraging.

展望未來，我們對高利潤的 RDS 業務仍然感到非常鼓舞，尤其是我們新的 分鐘KEY 3.5 自助服務終端。我們正在利用排名第一的自助家庭和辦公室機器 分鐘KEY，現在包括 RFID 5 複製和支援應答器和智慧 I/O 功能的技術。目前，我們在現場擁有 40 分鐘的 KEY 3.5 機器，初步結果令人鼓舞。

Our top customers are very excited about this machine and are anxious for the rollout during 2024. We believe that these capabilities and services for our new minuteKEY 3.5 machine are great, not only for our retailer but for their consumers. Additionally, we expect to roll out endless aisle capabilities on our minuteKEY 3.5 self-serve machines during the middle of this year.

我們的頂級客戶對這台機器感到非常興奮，並渴望在 2024 年推出。我們相信，我們新的 分鐘KEY 3.5 機器的這些功能和服務非常好，不僅對我們的零售商而且對他們的消費者來說。此外，我們預計今年年中將在我們的 分鐘KEY 3.5 自助服務機上推出無限通道功能。

This means that our user can get effectively any key duplicated. Our machines will scan the key, we will cut the key at our plant in Tempe, Arizona, and mail that came directly to the customer in just a few days. This solves the problem for customers seeking to duplicate unique keys like boat, riding lawn mower, and unique lock keys.

這意味著我們的用戶可以有效地獲得任何密鑰的複製。我們的機器將掃描鑰匙，我們將在亞利桑那州坦佩的工廠切割鑰匙，並在幾天內將郵件直接發送給客戶。這解決了客戶尋求複製獨特鑰匙（如船、騎乘式割草機和獨特鎖鑰匙）的問題。

Further, the endless aisle allows a customer to get an out of market key for example, someone living in Los Angeles will now be able to get a Cincinnati Red key. Our RDS field service team, which is part of our 1,100, is in our customer's store on a regular basis. There they replenish inventory, collect cash, and perform routine and service-related maintenance on our machines. We have several new opportunities to leverage this team of skilled technicians for other companies in the kiosk space, which will drive revenue and profitability for RDS in the second half of '24.

此外，無盡的過道允許客戶獲得市場外的鑰匙，例如，居住在洛杉磯的人現在可以獲得辛辛那提紅色鑰匙。我們的 RDS 現場服務團隊是我們 1,100 名現場服務團隊的一部分，定期造訪客戶的商店。他們在那裡補充庫存、收取現金並對我們的機器進行日常和與服務相關的維護。我們有幾個新的機會來利用這個由熟練技術人員組成的團隊為自助終端領域的其他公司服務，這將在 24 年下半年推動 RDS 的收入和盈利能力。

Lastly, our Canadian segment, which makes up about 11% of our revenue saw a 9% top line decrease versus 2022. Following a strong year in 2022, market volumes and foreign exchange were a drag on the '23 results. It's no secret that since mid '23, the Canadian economy has been sluggish, which has been a drag on our business. Our Canadian retail business, which makes up about 70% of their sales has roughly 60% market share and continues to provide strong service for the major retailers like they have in Canada for now well over 100 years.

最後，占我們收入約 11% 的加拿大部門的收入較 2022 年下降了 9%。繼 2022 年表現強勁後，市場交易量和外匯交易拖累了 23 年的業績。眾所周知，自 23 年中期以來，加拿大經濟一直低迷，這拖累了我們的業務。我們的加拿大零售業務約佔其銷售額的 70%，擁有約 60% 的市場份額，並繼續為主要零售商提供強大的服務，就像他們在加拿大 100 多年來所做的那樣。

You've all heard us talk about this before, but I think it's important to touch on again. We have implemented a cumulative total of approximately $225 million in price increases since the beginning of '21 that cover a like amount of inflation. These costs break down to approximately $120 million of transportation and shipping, which includes the inbound cost of ocean containers, $80 million of commodities and $25 million of labor.

你們之前都聽過我們談論過這個問題，但我認為有必要再討論一次。自 21 年初以來，我們已累積實施了約 2.25 億美元的價格上漲，抵消了同等程度的通貨膨脹。這些成本細分為約 1.2 億美元的運輸和航運成本，其中包括海運貨櫃的入境成本、8,000 萬美元的商品和 2,500 萬美元的勞動成本。

As lower cost product flowed out of our inventory and through our income statement during 2023, we experienced sequential improvement in gross margin. We are now getting at the right side of the power curve with margins at or above our historical rates, and we expect to stay there. Having said that, we continue to see some costs remain stubbornly high like labor, outbound freight, and drayage, which includes the local port service charges.

隨著 2023 年成本較低的產品從我們的庫存中流出並進入我們的損益表，我們的毛利率連續改善。我們現在正處於功率曲線的右側，利潤率等於或高於我們的歷史水平，我們預計將保持在這一水平。話雖如此，我們仍然看到一些成本仍然居高不下，例如勞動力、出境貨運和短駁運輸，其中包括當地港口服務費。

Additionally, there is uncertainty in the cost of ocean containers as we have seen disruption in the Red Sea, at the Suez Canal, as well as at the Panama Canal. Since the majority of our products come from Asia to the West Coast, the impact has been minimal to our global product flows, but we're keeping a close eye on the situation.

此外，海運貨櫃的成本也存在不確定性，因為我們已經看到紅海、蘇伊士運河以及巴拿馬運河受到干擾。由於我們的大部分產品來自亞洲到西海岸，因此對我們的全球產品流的影響很小，但我們正在密切關注這種情況。

Let's change gears and turn to the balance sheet. Back in 2021, we invested in our inventory to protect our fill rates as we saw supply chain tighten and lead times increased dramatically. I'm proud to report that we have worked through all of the inventory with no negative impact on our fill rates or excess and obsolete inventory. This strategic move is yet another example of doing things the Hillman way, taking care of our customers first. This is why our long-standing relationship with our customers is so strong from the Board level to each store level.

讓我們換個話題，轉向資產負債表。早在 2021 年，我們就對庫存進行了投資，以保護我們的填充率，因為我們看到供應鏈收緊，交貨時間急劇增加。我很自豪地報告，我們已經處理了所有庫存，沒有對我們的填充率或過剩和過時庫存產生負面影響。這項策略舉措是希爾曼以顧客為先的行事方式的又一例證。這就是為什麼我們與客戶的長期關係從董事會層面到每個商店層面都如此牢固。

We believe this decision has and will continue to yield new business wins. With that inventory out of our network, we've benefited from a meaningful working capital tailwind during the year generated $172 million of free cash flow, which we used to pay down debt. The resulting year end leverage ratio of 3.29 times meant that we could once again take advantage of M&A market by making a small tuck-in acquisition subsequent to the end of the year.

我們相信這項決定已經並將繼續帶來新的業務勝利。隨著這些庫存從我們的網路中消失，我們在這一年中受益於有意義的營運資本順風車，產生了 1.72 億美元的自由現金流，我們用它來償還債務。年末槓桿率為3.29倍，這意味著我們可以在年底後再次利用併購市場進行小額收購。

As we discussed during January, we acquired Koch industries, a Midwestern based supplier of rope and chain and related hardware products. This acquisition marks our expansion into a new product category for us. Having recently won the rope and chain accessories with one of our top five customers, our expansion into our open channel is a logical place to grow. We can bring these products to our existing customers while realizing synergies in shipping, sourcing, and service. And we have new products for our team to go sell and service.

正如我們在一月份討論的那樣，我們收購了科赫工業公司，這是一家位於中西部的繩索和鏈條及相關硬體產品供應商。此次收購標誌著我們向新產品類別的拓展。最近，我們贏得了前五名客戶之一的繩索和鏈條配件，我們向開放渠道的擴張是一個合乎邏輯的增長點。我們可以將這些產品帶給現有客戶，同時實現運輸、採購和服務的綜效。我們有新產品供我們的團隊進行銷售和服務。

Customer reaction has been outstanding. Since closing Koch during the second week of January, we've had great feedback on the news and real growth opportunity. Discussions are already on their way. The opportunities to grow via M&A are out there. Our customers are encouraging us to get into certain product categories because of our long track record and the value-added services we provide each and every day.

客戶反應非常出色。自從一月份第二週關閉 Koch 以來，我們收到了有關新聞和真正成長機會的良好反饋。討論已經在進行中。透過併購實現成長的機會就在那裡。由於我們長期的業績記錄和我們每天提供的增值服務，我們的客戶鼓勵我們進入某些產品類別。

Now, with the balance sheet on its way to below three times, we're ready to play offense. We're confident about 2024 because of the resilient end markets we serve, our diverse business with 114,000 SKUs shipping to 46,000 locations across North America and 60 years of believing that nothing happens until you sell something at Hillman. We are an embedded partner for our customers, and our moat provides value added differentiation versus our competition.

現在，隨著資產負債表跌至三倍以下，我們已準備好發動攻擊。我們對2024 年充滿信心，因為我們服務的終端市場具有彈性，我們的業務多元化，將114,000 個SKU 運送到北美的46,000 個地點，而且60 年來我們堅信，除非您在Hillman 出售產品，否則什麼都不會發生。我們是客戶的嵌入式合作夥伴，我們的護城河為我們的競爭對手提供了增值差異化優勢。

With that, let me turn it to Rocky to talk numbers.

接下來，讓我請洛基談談數字。

Thanks, Doug, and good morning, everyone. Before I get into our guidance for 2024, I'm going to provide a quick summary of our fourth quarter and year end results. I would like to remind everyone that the 2022 fourth quarter and full year included an extra week. Net sales in the fourth quarter of 2023 decreased 0.8% to $347.8 million versus the prior year quarter. 2023 full year net sales totaled $1.476 billion, which is down slightly versus 2022 full year, but up slightly when excluding the 53rd week from 2022. Net sales came in toward the top end of our revised guidance range.

謝謝，道格，大家早安。在介紹 2024 年的指導之前，我將快速總結我們的第四季和年終業績。我想提醒大家的是，2022年第四季和全年都多了一週。2023 年第四季的淨銷售額較去年同期下降 0.8%，至 3.478 億美元。 2023 年全年淨銷售額總計 14.76 億美元，較 2022 年全年略有下降，但排除 2022 年第 53 週後略有上升。淨銷售額接近我們修訂後的指導範圍的上限。

Remember because of the resilient nature of our products that are a critical part of repair and maintenance projects, demand for our products is relatively consistent. We don't experience the highs nor the lows that our customers often do. And during 2023, our top line outpaced some of our biggest customers. Fourth quarter adjusted gross profit margin increased over 480 basis points to 48.2% versus the prior year quarter.

請記住，由於我們的產品具有彈性，是維修和維護項目的關鍵部分，因此對我們產品的需求相對穩定。我們不會像我們的客戶那樣經歷高潮或低潮。2023 年，我們的營收超過了一些最大的客戶。第四季調整後毛利率比去年同期成長了 480 個基點，達到 48.2%。

Sequentially, these margins improved by 400 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2023. For the full year 2023, adjusted gross profit margin increased over 120 basis points to 44.2% from 43% during 2022. As Doug likes to say, the pig is through the python, in the second half of 2023, we finally returned to normal historic margin rates.

與 2023 年第三季相比，這些利潤率隨後提高了 400 個基點。2023 年全年，調整後毛利率從 2022 年的 43% 成長超過 120 個基點至 44.2%。正如Doug喜歡說的，豬過蟒蛇，2023年下半年，我們終於恢復到正常的歷史保證金率。

Q4 2023 adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales increased to 32.5% from 30.6% during the year-ago quarter. For the full year 2023, adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales increased to 29.5% from 28.9%. Adjusted SG&A increases during both periods were driven by an increased investment in IT and a $6 million increase in our standard employee bonus expense during 2023 coming off a disappointing 2022 bonus payout.

2023 年第四季調整後的 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比從去年同期的 30.6% 增至 32.5%。2023 年全年，調整後的 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比從 28.9% 增至 29.5%。這兩個時期調整後的 SG&A 成長是由於 IT 投資增加以及 2023 年標準員工獎金支出因 2022 年獎金支付令人失望而增加 600 萬美元所致。

Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter increased 20.8% to $54.4 million, exceeding the comparable year-ago quarter for the second quarter in a row. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2023 full year increased 4.3% to $219.4 million and came in ahead of the midpoint of our revised guidance range, which was $217.5 million. Adjusted EBITDA was driven by a positive mix of price cost, partially offset by a soft macro environment, which had outsized impacts on our RDS and Canadian businesses.

第四季調整後 EBITDA 成長 20.8%，達到 5,440 萬美元，連續第二季超過去年同期水準。2023 年全年調整後 EBITDA 成長 4.3%，達到 2.194 億美元，高於我們修訂後的指導範圍的中點（2.175 億美元）。調整後的 EBITDA 是由價格成本的積極組合推動的，部分被疲軟的宏觀環境所抵消，這對我們的 RDS 和加拿大業務產生了巨大影響。

Let's talk cash flow and balance sheet. During 2023, operating activities generated $238 million of cash versus $119 million in 2022. Driving the improvement was a $104 million reduction in net inventories, improving cash management. Capital expenditures for the year were $66 million compared to $70 million in 2022. We continue to invest in our minuteKEY 3.5 and Quick-Tag 3.0 machines, which are important parts of our CapEx initiatives.

我們來談談現金流和資產負債表。2023 年，經營活動產生現金 2.38 億美元，而 2022 年為 1.19 億美元。推動這項改善的是淨庫存減少了 1.04 億美元，改善了現金管理。今年的資本支出為 6,600 萬美元，而 2022 年為 7,000 萬美元。我們繼續投資我們的 分鐘KEY 3.5 和 Quick-Tag 3.0 機器，這是我們資本支出計劃的重要組成部分。

Free cash flow for the year totaled $172.3 million versus $49.4 million in 2022. Driven by a meaningful and accelerated working capital benefit, free cash flow exceeded the high end of our guidance and surpassed our initial -- internal expectations. During the year, we used free cash flow to pay down $160 million of debt. We ended 2023 with $722 million of net debt versus $888 million at the end of 2022.

全年自由現金流總計 1.723 億美元，而 2022 年為 4,940 萬美元。在有意義且加速的營運資本效益的推動下，自由現金流超出了我們指導的上限，並超越了我們最初的內部預期。這一年，我們利用自由現金流償還了 1.6 億美元的債務。截至 2023 年末，我們的淨債務為 7.22 億美元，而 2022 年底為 8.88 億美元。

Towards the end of Q4, we took advantage of the swap market and the inverted yield curve by entering into a new set of swaps. Currently, we have $360 million of existing swaps that expire on July 31, 2024. These swaps are fixed at 74 basis points plus our 270-basis point spread for an all-in borrowing cost of about 3.5%. In December, we entered in the new swap agreements for the same $360 million that go into effect on the day our existing swaps expire.

在第四季末，我們利用掉期市場和反向殖利率曲線，進行了一組新的掉期交易。目前，我們有 3.6 億美元的現有掉期，將於 2024 年 7 月 31 日到期。這些掉期利率固定為 74 個基點，加上 270 個基點的利差，總​​借貸成本約為 3.5%。12 月，我們簽訂了新的互換協議，金額同樣為 3.6 億美元，該協議在現有互換到期之日生效。

These swaps are fixed at 3.69%, plus our 270-basis point spread for an all-in borrowing costs of about 6.4%. These new swaps will expire on January 31, 2027. Our net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA ratio at the end of the quarter was 3.29 times, which improved from 3.7 times at the end of the third quarter and four times at the end of Q2. Our long-term net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio target remains unchanged at below 3 times, and we expect we will end 2024 around 2.7 times, assuming we fall near the midpoint of our guidance, and we do not make any sizable acquisitions during the remainder of 2024.

這些掉期利率固定為 3.69%，加上 270 個基點的利差，總​​借貸成本約為 6.4%。這些新互換將於 2027 年 1 月 31 日到期。截至本季末，我們的淨負債與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 3.29 倍，較第三季末的 3.7 倍和第二季末的 4 倍有所改善。我們的長期淨債務與調整後EBITDA 比率目標保持在3 倍以下不變，我們預計到2024 年年底，該比率將約為2.7 倍（假設我們跌至指引的中點附近），並且我們在剩餘時間內部不會進行任何大規模收購2024 年。

Speaking of, let me spend a few minutes talking about our outlook and guidance for 2024. We anticipate full year net sales to be between $1.475 billion to $1.555 billion with a midpoint of $1.515 billion. Historically, our top line has grown about 6% annually. This consists of approximately 1% price and 5% volume growth. The 5% volume growth is made up of 2% to 3% market growth, which looks a lot like GDP and 2% to 3% growth from new business wins. As it relates to our 2024 top line guide, our midpoint assumes a 1% headwind from price, a 1% decrease from market volumes, a 2% lift from new business wins, and a 3% lift from the Koch acquisition.

說到這裡，讓我花幾分鐘談談我們對 2024 年的展望和指導。我們預計全年淨銷售額將在 14.75 億美元至 15.55 億美元之間，中間值為 15.15 億美元。從歷史上看，我們的收入每年增長約 6%。這包括大約 1% 的價格增長和 5% 的銷售增長。5% 的銷售成長由 2% 至 3% 的市場成長組成，這看起來很像 GDP 以及新業務成長帶來的 2% 至 3% 的成長。由於與我們的2024 年營收指南相關，我們的中點假設價格將出現1% 的逆風，市場銷量將下降1%，新業務獲勝將帶來2% 的提升，科赫收購將帶來3%的提升。

As you would expect, our top line is going to be dependent upon sales volume at our customers, which is predominantly driven by their POS. Our ability to win new business, the strength of the consumer, and the health of the economy and housing market will impact our results. For our bottom line, we expect full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA will total between $230 million and $240 million. The midpoint of $235 million represents an increase of about 7% versus 2023. During 2024, we expect our full year adjusted gross margin to come in above 45% for the year, which is where we expect the business to perform over the long term.

正如您所料，我們的收入將取決於客戶的銷售量，而這主要由他們的 POS 驅動。我們贏得新業務的能力、消費者的實力以及經濟和房地產市場的健康狀況都會影響我們的業績。對於我們的底線，我們預計 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 總額將在 2.3 億美元至 2.4 億美元之間。中位數為 2.35 億美元，比 2023 年成長約 7%。2024 年，我們預計全年調整後毛利率將達到 45% 以上，這是我們預期業務長期表現的水平。

Lastly, free cash flow for the full year of 2024 is expected to come in between $100 million to $120 million with a midpoint of $110 million. There was some pull forward of cash flow from '24 into 2023 and we anticipate our normalized level of free cash flow to be in the $130 million to $140 million range for the next several years following 2024.

最後，2024 年全年的自由現金流預計在 1 億至 1.2 億美元之間，中位數為 1.1 億美元。從 24 年到 2023 年，現金流提前，我們預計 2024 年後的未來幾年，我們的自由現金流正常水準將在 1.3 億至 1.4 億美元之間。

During 2024, we expect to be able to purchase products from our vendors a bit less expensively than we did in '23 because of lower raw material commodity prices but expect this to be partially offset by a return to more normal purchasing patterns, which will provide a modest working capital benefit in the range of $5 million to $15 million. Keep in mind that these guidance figures are made with the following full year assumptions. Interest expense will be between $55 million and $65 million. Cash interest will be between $50 million and $60 million. We expect to pay cash taxes between $10 million and $20 million.

2024 年，由於原物料大宗商品價格下降，我們預計能夠以比 23 年低一些的價格從供應商處購買產品，但預計這將被恢復到更正常的採購模式所部分抵消，這將提供500 萬至1500 萬美元範圍內的適度營運資本利得。請記住，這些指導數字是根據以下全年假設得出的。利息支出將在 5500 萬至 6500 萬美元之間。現金利息將在5000萬至6000萬美元之間。我們預計繳納 1000 萬至 2000 萬美元的現金稅。

CapEx will remain between $65 million and $75 million. We anticipate restructuring related or other expenses of approximately $20 million -- $10 million, excuse me. And our adjusted diluted weighted average share count for 2024 will be approximately $199 million. Our success reducing inventory and paying down debt during 2023 has put us in a position to play offense and use our improved balance sheet to execute low risk acquisitions like Koch.

資本支出將維持在 6,500 萬美元至 7,500 萬美元之間。我們預期重組相關費用或其他費用約 2,000 萬至 1,000 萬美元，對不起。2024 年調整後的稀釋加權平均股票數量約為 1.99 億美元。我們在 2023 年期間成功減少了庫存並償還了債務，這使我們能夠主動進攻，並利用改善後的資產負債表來執行像 Koch 這樣的低風險收購。

As we look forward, we believe our competitive moat and long-standing relationships with customers will allow us to continue to win and to perform at or above our historic growth rate over the long term. With that, back to you, Doug.

展望未來，我們相信，我們的競爭優勢以及與客戶的長期關係將使我們能夠繼續獲勝，並在長期內保持或高於我們的歷史成長率。說到這裡，回到你身上，道格。

Thanks, Rocky. We've made excellent progress during 2023 from reducing inventory and paying down debt to winning new business and transitioning one of our main distribution hubs from Rialto, California to Kansas City, and I'm truly impressed with our team's results during the year. Looking forward, we fired up the M&A machine and believe that by leveraging the Hillman moat, we can add tremendous value via M&A. We started with Koch and are excited about bringing in additional categories to our customers either organically or through M&A.

謝謝，洛基。2023 年，我們從減少庫存、償還債務到贏得新業務，以及將我們的主要配送中心之一從加利福尼亞州里亞托過渡到堪薩斯城，取得了巨大進展，我們團隊在這一年的業績給我留下了深刻的印象。展望未來，我們啟動了併購機器，並相信透過利用希爾曼護城河，我們可以透過併購增加巨大的價值。我們從 Koch 開始，很高興能夠透過有機方式或透過併購為我們的客戶帶來更多類別。

As we think about 2024, we're ready to capitalize on the progress we made during 2023. While we can't control the macro, we believe we're very well positioned to drive share gain and a healthy profit increase during 2024. Our true north continues to be the guiding principle of Hillman. We live by the model that nothing happens until you sell something, and once you do don't disappoint.

在展望 2024 年時，我們已準備好利用 2023 年的進展。雖然我們無法控制宏觀經濟，但我們相信我們完全有能力在 2024 年推動股價上漲和利潤健康成長。我們的正北仍然是 Hillman 的指導原則。我們遵循這樣的模式：在你賣掉東西之前什麼都不會發生，一旦你賣掉就不要失望。

We know that in today's environment, service matters as much as it ever has in our 60-year history. Our commitment to all of our stakeholders remains steadfast. This includes not only our customers but our suppliers, team members, and our investors. We look forward to updating you during the year with our progress. With that, we'll begin the Q&A portion of the call. Let's see, Towanda, can you please open up the call?

我們知道，在當今的環境中，服務與我們 60 年歷史中的任何時候一樣重要。我們對所有利害關係人的承諾依然堅定。這不僅包括我們的客戶，還包括我們的供應商、團隊成員和投資者。我們期待在這一年向您通報我們的最新進展。接下來，我們將開始通話的問答部分。讓我們想想，Towanda，您能接通電話嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Please stand by while we compile the Q&A box.

（操作說明）我們正在整理問答框，請稍候。

Lee Jagoda, CJS Securities.

Lee Jagoda，CJS 證券。

Hi, good morning. It's Pete Lukas for Lee. Congrats on the quarter. I just wanted to know, I guess first question, what assumptions are built into the forecast in terms of growth in robotics, both in terms of growth in keys versus engraving and then the ramp of machine placements throughout the year?

早安.這是李的皮特盧卡斯。恭喜本季。我只是想知道，我想第一個問題是，在機器人技術增長方面的預測中建立了哪些假設，無論是鑰匙與雕刻的增長，還是全年機器放置的增長？

So as we think -- and thanks for the question, Pete. Thanks for the compliments on the quarter. As we think about robotics for this year, as Doug said, in his prepared remarks, we expect to ramp in the back half, but the first half is going to be relatively tough. We're anticipating just given what we've seen in the economy we continue to see some of the pet retailers struggle a bit.

正如我們所想，謝謝皮特提出的問題。感謝您對本季的讚揚。當我們考慮今年的機器人技術時，正如道格在他準備好的演講中所說，我們預計下半年會出現成長，但上半年將相對艱難。鑑於我們在經濟中所看到的情況，我們預計一些寵物零售商將繼續陷入困境。

And when you think about anything that's discretionary spend, we don't see people spending unless the economy turns towards the back half. So overall, in the robotics and digital, we would say a flattish kind of year. That would be with areas like minuteKEY performing better and areas such as engraving performed a little worse. And then, Doug, do you want to comment on rollout?

當你考慮任何可自由支配的支出時，我們不會看到人們花錢，除非經濟轉向後半段。總的來說，在機器人和數位領域，我們可以說這是平淡的一年。那就是像 分鐘KEY 這樣的區域表現更好，而像雕刻這樣的區域表現稍差。然後，道格，您想對推出發表評論嗎？

Yeah. When you think about, Pete, the new 3.5%, obviously we're going to have a machine that can do a lot more than just home and office with the endless aisle capability as well as RFID as well as the transponder and auto capability for SmartFob. So we're excited about that. But we are, as I have said repeatedly, we're not going to run out there and lead with our chin, we're going to make sure that we roll these out and that we've got the back end taken care of those support and service. But again, every retailer is excited about it. I think the one thing about RDS, and we're frustrated with the performance, so let me say that upfront, I wish it was growing quicker, but when you take -- it makes total sense on engraving and accessories.

是的。Pete，當你想到新的 3.5% 時，顯然我們將擁有一台不僅可以在家庭和辦公室做更多事情的機器，還具有無限的過道功能、RFID 以及應答器和自動功能，可用於智能遙控鑰匙。所以我們對此感到興奮。但正如我反覆說過的，我們不會跑到那裡並用我們的下巴領導，我們將確保我們推出這些產品，並確保我們已經處理好這些後端支援和服務。但同樣，每個零售商都對此感到興奮。我認為 RDS 的一件事是，我們對它的性能感到沮喪，所以讓我先說一下，我希望它增長得更快，但當你考慮時——它在雕刻和配件上完全有意義。

That's a discretionary, and we know that [that] and that is way off. But when you think about keys, both full serve and self-serve piece, which is the biggest part of RDS, we have one customer that's given us fits and that's Walmart. And if you look at the rest of the customers in 2023, RDS was up about 7.5%. So they had a good year. And what happened at Walmart is they elected to take full serve machines out. We had 100% of that business. We had to do a lot of work that didn't sell the key to get those machines out. And then we relocated all of the self-serve machines throughout the store.

這是一個自由裁量權，我們知道那是遙不可及的。但當你想到鑰匙時，無論是全套服務還是自助服務，這是 RDS 的最大部分，我們有一個客戶給了我們合適的選擇，那就是沃爾瑪。如果你看看 2023 年的其他客戶，RDS 成長了約 7.5%。所以他們度過了美好的一年。沃爾瑪發生的事情是他們選擇將全方位服務機器撤出。我們擁有該業務 100% 的份額。我們必須做很多工作，但不能賣掉鑰匙才能把這些機器拿出來。然後我們重新安置了整個商店的所有自助服務機。

We have about 70% of the self-serve share. And unfortunately, we saw machines go from the front vestibule, to sporting goods, to painting, to ACC. So they're not getting to the places that even Walmart wants with their store ops issue. So we had a tough year with Walmart in lots of machines in and out and around. And -- but when you look at our other major key companies and customers like the Aces of the world and Depot and Lowe's, we had a good year. And so we should turn that tide second half of '24 and get this thing going again.

我們擁有大約 70% 的自助服務份額。不幸的是，我們看到機器從前廳，到體育用品，到噴漆，到 ACC。因此，他們的商店運營問題沒有達到甚至沃爾瑪想要的地方。因此，我們在沃爾瑪度過了艱難的一年，裡面有許多機器進進出出。但是當你看看我們的其他主要公司和客戶（例如 Aces of the world 和 Depot and Lowe's）時，我們度過了美好的一年。因此，我們應該在 24 年下半年扭轉這一局面，讓這件事重新開始。

And then just one quick follow up. You talked about the new services you're introducing on the next generation key making machines. Any sense what that adds to your TAM?

然後只需快速跟進即可。您談到了在下一代鑰匙製作機器上推出的新服務。你知道這會對你的 TAM 帶來什麼影響嗎？

I'll tell you what, it's a really good question, and it can vary dramatically. If you think about the average key that would be cut in a minuteKEY machine today, you're talking about probably a $5 key versus -- in the future, you'll have keys ranging from $10.99 to $79 to $179, and so big variability. What we don't know is what's the consumer going to do? And that's what's interesting about the first 40. So, Pete, it's a little early yet. And I do also believe that we'll see different kinds of numbers based on different geographics.

我告訴你，這是一個非常好的問題，而且可能會有很大的不同。如果你考慮一下今天一分鐘內切割的鑰匙的平均數量，你可能會想到一把5 美元的鑰匙，而在未來，你將擁有從10.99 美元到79 美元到179 美元不等的鑰匙，而且變化很大。我們不知道消費者會做什麼？這就是前 40 條的有趣之處。所以，皮特，現在還有點早。我也相信我們會看到基於不同地理區域的不同類型的數字。

You know, as far as how that store trades out what it's around and in what areas. And so we're just learning. It's a little early for us to say. But the great news from a retailer standpoint is we're spending the capital doing all the work and they get a percent of a higher number.

你知道，至於那家商店如何交易它周圍的東西以及在哪些區域。所以我們只是在學習。我們現在說還為時過早。但從零售商的角度來看，好消息是我們將資金投入所有工作中，而他們得到了更高數字的百分比。

And so they're excited about it and we are as well. But it's a little early for me to tell you average key cut price was average new key cut price will be, and that's what we're going to work on. It will probably take us -- we're going to need about 500 machines out there around the US for us to get our heads around that.

所以他們對此感到興奮，我們也是如此。但對我來說，現在告訴你平均關鍵削減價格是平均新關鍵削減價格還為時過早，這就是我們將要努力的方向。我們可能需要在美國各地部署約 500 台機器才能解決這個問題。

Very helpful. Thanks. I'll jump back in the queue.

很有幫助。謝謝。我會跳回到隊列中。

Thanks, Pete.

謝謝，皮特。

Ryan Merkel, William Blair.

瑞恩·梅克爾、威廉·布萊爾。

Hey, everyone. Good morning.

嘿大家。早安.

Hey, Ryan.

嘿，瑞安。

I wanted to start off with some of the revenue assumptions for '24. I think you mentioned price down 1%. Can you just unpack that a little bit?

我想從 24 年的一些收入假設開始。我想你提到價格下降 1%。你能稍微解開一下嗎？

Yeah, I mean, if you take 1% of our revenue, obviously, you can do the math there, Ryan, it's about $15 million. I mean, we've said, as you think about price over time, we expect that we're going to get some price back because we've seen some deflation in the business, and we're anticipating that we'll do that. I think what we've said consistently is, as we see -- as cost come down, we would expect that we'll hold on about half of that. And so far, that's playing out.

是的，我的意思是，如果你拿我們收入的 1%，顯然，你可以在那裡算一下，Ryan，大約是 1500 萬美元。我的意思是，我們已經說過，隨著時間的推移，當你考慮價格時，我們預計我們會收回一些價格，因為我們已經看到了業務中的一些通貨緊縮，並且我們預計我們會這樣做。我認為我們一直所說的是，正如我們所看到的那樣，隨著成本下降，我們預計我們將保留大約一半的成本。到目前為止，這一切正在上演。

We're pretty proud of the fact that we've been able to expand gross margin like we have. We've gotten back to where we were historically. Obviously, a little bit above it in the fourth quarter but as we think about 2024, what we're really excited about as we think not only are we at, but we maintained that historic gross margin throughout the year, and we think that's where the business needs to lift.

我們非常自豪能夠像現在這樣擴大毛利率。我們已經回到了歷史上的位置。顯然，第四季度的毛利率略高於這一水平，但當我們想到2024 年時，我們真正感到興奮的是，我們不僅認為我們現在處於這樣的水平，而且我們全年都保持了歷史性的毛利率，我們認為這就是我們的目標業務需要提升。

Got it. Okay. In terms of the timing, is that kind of even through the year? Or should we think about that price give back more second half?

知道了。好的。從時間上來說，全年都是這樣嗎？或者我們應該考慮下半年價格會回饋更多嗎？

I would say it's more back end loaded, but we're obviously having those conversations with our retailers as we speak.

我想說的是後端負載更多，但顯然我們正在與零售商進行這些對話。

Yeah. Okay. And then my second question, the market down 1%. I think that's pretty fair. I guess, two-part question, what are what are some of the things you're watching? Is it mainly just interest rates and housing turnover? And then the second part of the question, Doug, do you think there's pent-up demand? Is that how your business works? So if turnover increases, do all these people start doing projects again?

是的。好的。然後我的第二個問題，市場下跌了1%。我認為這很公平。我想，這個問題由兩個部分組成，您正在觀看哪些內容？主要是利率和房屋成交量嗎？然後問題的第二部分，道格，你認為需求是否被壓抑？你們的生意就是這樣運作的嗎？那麼如果營業額增加，所有這些人都會重新開始做專案嗎？

Yes, I think that -- Ryan, when you think about existing home sales, we get it helped on both sides of that trade, right? People get their house ready, and they use our products and then they tried to turn their new one into what they want. And that number being [$4 million] versus [$5 million] and [$6 million] is really probably the biggest drag on Depot, Lowe's and hardware stores in our business. So I think that's a second half begin, but it really probably ends up being a '25 tailwind.

是的，我認為——瑞安，當你考慮到現房銷售時，我們在交易雙方都得到了幫助，對吧？人們準備好自己的房子，使用我們的產品，然後試著將新房子變成他們想要的樣子。這個數字 [400 萬美元] 與 [500 萬美元] 和 [600 萬美元] 確實可能是對我們業務中 Depot、Lowe's 和五金店的最大拖累。所以我認為這是下半場的開始，但它最終可能會成為 25 年的順風車。

We feel like it'll start to help us in the second half but I think you'll see that -- our guess is that you'll see that really help our business in '25. And that's why we didn't want to put a number out there that had to go perfect, we wanted to put a number out there that -- hopefully we could do better but not solve for volume until we see volume in a consistent way.

我們覺得它會在下半年開始幫助我們，但我想你會看到這一點——我們的猜測是，你會發現這對我們 25 年的業務確實有幫助。這就是為什麼我們不想放出一個必須完美的數字，我們想放出一個數字——希望我們能做得更好，但在我們以一致的方式看到數量之前不要解決數量問題。

I think it's always confusing in January and February because of weather this that and the other. I think the thing that we're really hoping for, for our retail partners is a good spring. It's been two years without it. It would be great to have a good spring for them. Obviously, would help us too. We're not super tied to spring, but they are and that would really help them to get started because I think Depot and Lowe's are prepared for a good year, but I think just like us, they're trying to look at things saying, it's probably a second half before this thing starts moving and then into '25.

我認為一月和二月總是令人困惑，因為天氣就是這樣。我認為對於我們的零售合作夥伴來說，我們真正希望的是一個美好的春天。已經兩年沒有了。如果能為他們帶來一個美好的春天，那就太好了。顯然，這也會對我們有幫助。我們與春天的聯繫並不緊密，但他們確實如此，這確實會幫助他們開始，因為我認為Depot 和Lowe's 已經為美好的一年做好了準備，但我認為就像我們一樣，他們正在嘗試著看事情說，這件事可能要等到下半場才會開始發生，然後再進入 25 年。

Yes, makes sense. All right, best of luck.

是的，有道理。好吧，祝你好運。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

David Manthey, Baird.

大衛曼蒂，貝爾德。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. So my question is on new business wins. I think, Doug, you had said more than $25 million and Rocky referenced this 2% to 3%, focusing on 2% for the current year, and I guess mathematically 2% is $30 million. Just wanted to check in, like is that your plan? Is that based on discussions you're having? How concrete is that? And secondarily, is that number net of this line that you exited and wrote off quarter?

謝謝。大家，早安。所以我的問題是關於新業務的勝利。我想，Doug，你說過超過 2500 萬美元，Rocky 提到了這個 2% 到 3%，重點關註今年的 2%，我想從數學上講 2% 是 3000 萬美元。只是想登記一下，這是您的計劃嗎？這是基於你們正在進行的討論嗎？具體有多具體？其次，這個數字是您退出並註銷季度的這一行的淨值嗎？

Yeah, on the line that we wrote, we weren't actually selling much of that, Dave. And so you have that kind of led to where the write-off occurred. So that has nothing to do with the math, I would say. As you think about it, probably north of two thirds of that business is already done and baked with our retailers. And so you think about the rollover impact plus new business wins that we know of, and so we've still got some work to do.

是的，在我們寫的那一行中，我們實際上並沒有賣掉很多東西，戴夫。因此，這就導致了註銷的發生。所以我想說，這跟數學無關。正如您所想，大約三分之二以上的業務已經由我們的零售商完成和烘焙。因此，您會考慮展期影響以及我們所知的新業務勝利，因此我們仍然有一些工作要做。

But I would say we're in at least as good a spot as we've been the last couple of years, and we've been able to hit those numbers each year as we think about -- even as we speak, our guys in the field are out working on new business and we are confident we'll pick up more.

但我想說，我們的處境至少和過去幾年一樣好，而且我們每年都能達到我們所想的這些數字——即使在我們說話的時候，我們的人在該領域，我們正在開展新業務，我們有信心能夠獲得更多業務。

David, the reason I feel even better than I did is because we're actually having some interesting conversations with three of our customers talking about doing things for them that they have historically directly inputted themselves. That tells me that they've got to free up their warehouses and that they want us to service these complicated categories. And that -- we haven't seen that as an opportunity in front of us.

大衛，我感覺比以前更好的原因是因為我們實際上正在與我們的三位客戶進行一些有趣的對話，談論為他們做一些他們過去直接輸入的事情。這告訴我，他們必須騰出倉庫，並且希望我們為這些複雜的類別提供服務。我們還沒有將其視為擺在我們面前的機會。

I haven't seen that. I've been here nine years. So we have three discussions going on right now with people who are importing the product. And quite honestly, it's really tricky for them to do that as they solve through COVID. And again, we're not going to be able to meet the price that they could get, but we can show them with us servicing it and us thinking about the category differently than maybe a merchant who doesn't understand it, how we could actually grow it, maybe change the category. So that's why I feel like you'll see us exceed that number this year.

我沒見過。我在這裡已經九年了。因此，我們現在正在與進口該產品的人進行三場討論。老實說，當他們透過新冠疫情解決問題時，做到這一點對他們來說確實很棘手。再說一遍，我們無法滿足他們可以獲得的價格，但我們可以向他們展示我們的服務，我們對這個類別的思考可能與不理解它的商家不同，我們如何才能做到這一點實際種植它，也許改變類別。這就是為什麼我覺得今年我們會超過這個數字。

That sounds great. The second question is on a rope and chain up. What percentage overlap do you have with Koch currently when you think about the number of locations you're in versus what their overlap is with those locations? And I'm thinking here about the cross-sell opportunity. If you look at the $45 million in Koch's revenues, are you looking to capture multiples of that over three to five years? Or is it more of an incremental opportunity?

聽起來不錯。第二個問題是關於繩子和鏈條的。當您考慮您所在地點的數量以及它們與這些地點的重疊程度時，您目前與 Koch 的重疊百分比是多少？我在這裡想到的是交叉銷售機會。如果您看看 Koch 4500 萬美元的收入，您是否希望在三到五年內獲得該收入的倍數？或者這更像是一個增量機會？

Yeah, I'll turn it to JMA because he's all over this one, but Dave, let me just say first, our top three customers, we -- Koch has 8% of their share. I love that. That's a good place to start. JMA --

是的，我會把它交給 JMA，因為他對這件事很感興趣，但是戴夫，讓我首先說，我們的三大客戶，我們 - 科赫擁有他們 8% 的份額。我喜歡那個。這是一個很好的起點。日本氣象局—

Dave, yeah, excellent question because we're really excited about Koch. Tiny overlap. Very little, I mean, accessories, rope and chain accessories have a little bit of overlap. But with the acquisition, now, we're able to bring the bulk and packaged product, and then bring our merchandising solutions together to really grow it. And as Doug mentioned, it's just a huge opportunity, so we really feel good about that, really accelerating our growth in '24 and beyond.

戴夫，是的，這是一個很好的問題，因為我們對科赫感到非常興奮。微小的重疊。我的意思是，配件、繩索和鏈條配件很少有重疊。但現在，透過收購，我們能夠帶來散裝和包裝產品，然後將我們的銷售解決方案結合在一起，以真正實現成長。正如 Doug 所提到的，這是一個巨大的機會，所以我們對此感覺很好，確實加速了我們在 24 年及以後的成長。

We had a major customer, when they saw the announcement call and say we're about to make a decision on a line review. If you guys are going to own this, we'll delay it. And that says something to me. I think we've had several of the regional players say, listen, let us know when you're ready. You can take over rope and chain now because you've got service. This is a pain in the a** product category and Koch didn't have service. It's a great Midwest company but when you take that was service and the relationships we have, Dave, I don't know how big it will be, but we're going to see some really nice growth here.

我們有一個主要客戶，當他們看到公告時打電話說我們即將就生產線審查做出決定。如果你們要擁有這個，我們會推遲它。這對我來說很有意義。我想我們已經有幾個地區參與者說，聽著，當你準備好時告訴我們。現在您可以接管繩索和鏈條，因為您已經獲得了服務。這是 a** 產品類別中的一個痛苦，而 Koch 沒有提供服務。這是一家偉大的中西部公司，但當你考慮的是服務和我們擁有的關係時，戴夫，我不知道它會有多大，但我們將在這裡看到一些非常好的增長。

Yeah. Hey, Dave, just that just to make sure that everyone listening is clear, what JMA was talking about is like the category. And so very little overlap. But when you think about customers, they probably don't have a customer that we aren't already servicing. So this is put it through the goose.

是的。嘿，戴夫，只是為了確保每個人都聽清楚，JMA 正在談論的就像類別一樣。所以重疊很少。但當你想到客戶時，他們可能沒有我們尚未服務的客戶。所以這是把它穿過鵝。

Well, that was great. Thanks, guys.

嗯，那太好了。多謝你們。

Yeah.

是的。

Michael Hoffman, Stifel.

邁克爾·霍夫曼，斯蒂菲爾。

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking the question.

你好，早上好，感謝您提出問題。

Hey, Michael.

嘿，麥可。

Hi, guys. Can we talk about the cadence of your gross margin through the year, just so we get all the puts and takes of this sort of the end of the transition out of the [$225 million] and COVID and rebalancing inventory and all that?

嗨，大家好。我們能否談談你們全年毛利率的節奏，以便我們從[2.25億美元]和新冠疫情以及庫存再平衡等因素中獲得這種過渡結束時的所有看跌期權和收益？

Yes, I think the way to think about it, Michael, is, as we said, we expect to be at or above our historic margins all year. So that kind of sets a floor where we believe the margins will be. Obviously, as you think historically about Hillman, our second and third quarters are usually our most profitable just because of seasonality.

是的，邁克爾，我認為思考這個問題的方式是，正如我們所說，我們預計全年將達到或高於我們的歷史利潤率。因此，這為我們相信利潤率設定了一個底線。顯然，正如您對 Hillman 的歷史看法一樣，由於季節性原因，我們的第二季和第三季通常是利潤最高的季度。

And I think you will see that again this year with the exception being that the first quarter we expect to be pretty profitable. It's going to probably look a lot like the fourth quarter did. And then when you start to think about some of the price giveback that we anticipate is going to happen, et cetera, you would expect that margin to come down a bit, but still again remain at or above historic levels.

我認為今年你會再次看到這種情況，但我們預計第一季的獲利將相當可觀。它可能看起來很像第四季度的情況。然後，當您開始考慮我們預計將發生的一些價格回饋等時，您會預期利潤率會略有下降，但仍會再次保持在或高於歷史水平。

Okay. So all year we're at [$45 million] and then the 2Q and 3Q are even higher and 4Q, maybe actually, may be below [$45 million] just to get it to balance.

好的。因此，我們的收入全年都在 [4500 萬美元]，然後第二季度和第三季度甚至更高，而第四季度，也許實際上，可能低於 [4500 萬美元]，只是為了保持平衡。

Again, I'll just restate what I said, Michael, that we expect all year every quarter to be at or above historic levels.

邁克爾，我再次重申我所說的話，我們預計全年每個季度都將達到或高於歷史水平。

Okay. And then so your customer is having real foot traffic issues. What are you doing differently to keep your business on pace despite their foot traffic?

好的。然後，您的客戶就會遇到真正的人流問題。儘管客流量很大，但您採取了哪些不同的措施來維持業務發展？

Yes, I think if you think about Depot and Lowe's, clearly foot traffic issues, we're not seeing that as much in the farm and fleet and these little hardware stores. And I say little when you have 12,000 of them and they represent 27% of your business they just refused to partake (technical difficulty) really well. And then get the servers, and M&A [back the product] (technical difficulty) had some strong double-digit kind of move this past year. And so those three areas are not being as impacted by foot traffic. And I think Depot and Lowe's are both certainly hoping that with the spring and kind of midyear that turns around, but it's been tough for three years.

是的，我想如果你考慮 Depot 和 Lowe's，明顯的人流量問題，我們在農場、車隊和這些小五金店中並沒有看到那麼多。當你有 12,000 名員工並且他們佔你業務的 27% 時，我就很少說什麼，他們只是拒絕很好地參與（技術難度）。然後獲得伺服器，並且併購[支援產品]（技術難度）在過去的一年中出現了一些強勁的兩位數變化。因此，這三個區域並沒有受到人流的影響。我認為 Depot 和 Lowe's 肯定都希望隨著春季和年中的到來，情況會有所好轉，但三年來情況一直很艱難。

Okay. And if I could squeeze one more. What's your M&A pipeline look like?

好的。如果我能再擠一個的話。您的併購管道是什麼樣的？

One of the great thing -- we got lucky, let's face it. We wanted to buy Koch a couple of years ago and just didn't feel like it was the right time with what we had to do on inventory. And we spent time with the owners and told them we genuinely wanted to buy it, and this is when we thought we could. And they waited for us. Ironically, they also ended up buying stock in Hillman during that time.

最棒的事情之一——我們很幸運，讓我們面對現實吧。幾年前我們想收購科赫，只是覺得現在不是我們必須在庫存方面採取行動的合適時機。我們花時間與業主交談，告訴他們我們真的想買下它，而此時我們認為我們可以買下它。他們在等我們。諷刺的是，他們最終還在那段時間買了希爾曼的股票。

And I just think that we got to know them. They got to know us. We were very honest about when we wanted to buy. And for two brothers who run a company and build a company, honestly, we're a great fit for them. We've already integrated the team. We just had 31 people in Minnesota this week. They love what's happening. And they know, the two brothers know that they can retire, and this will be very well taken care of.

我只是認為我們必須了解他們。他們認識了我們。當我們想購買時，我們非常誠實。老實說，對於經營一家公司並創建一家公司的兩兄弟來說，我們非常適合他們。我們已經整合了團隊。這周明尼蘇達州只有 31 個人。他們喜歡正在發生的事情。他們知道，兩兄弟知道他們可以退休，這會得到很好的照顧。

So we've got half a dozen of those, Michael, and again, not all will come together, but the fact that the private equity guys stopped sharpening their year was because there was no debt market has really helped us.

所以我們有六個這樣的人，邁克爾，再說一次，並不是所有的人都會聚集在一起，但私募股權公司的人停止磨礪他們的一年是因為沒有債務市場，這一事實確實對我們有幫助。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Reuben Garner, Benchmark.

魯本·加納，基準。

Thanks. Good morning, everybody.

謝謝。大家早安。

Hey, Reuben.

嘿，魯本。

So hardware has been fairly resilient for you guys. You talked about the issues with Walmart at RDS. Can you talk about protective solutions? Maybe what's changed in the last couple of quarters and kind of what's embedded in your outlook in that category for '24?

所以硬體對你們來說相當有彈性。您在 RDS 中談到了與沃爾瑪的問題。能談談防護解決方案嗎？也許過去幾季發生了什麼變化，以及您對 24 世紀該類別的展望有何變化？

Reuben, yeah, I mean, we look at the back half of '23, really proud of what that team has done the last couple of years. We've, I'll say, rebuilt that business a bit. We've focused on remixing our 12 mix. We've been introducing new products and we've rebalanced it. We've got some nice off-shelf opportunities, incremental shelf space, which we've been able to maximize.

魯本，是的，我的意思是，我們回顧 23 年的後半段，對球隊過去幾年所做的事情感到非常自豪。我想說，我們已經稍微重建了這項業務。我們專注於重新混音我們的 12 種混音。我們一直在推出新產品並對其進行了重新平衡。我們有一些很好的現貨機會，增加的貨架空間，我們已經能夠最大限度地利用這些機會。

And that led to a really good back half of the year. We feel good about where the business is positioned in '24, and we're excited about that team's got on their plate, are the new growth opportunities that Doug referenced earlier. So we feel really good about our go forward in that category we can continue to grow.

這導致了下半年的表現非常好。我們對 24 年的業務定位感到滿意，我們對團隊的工作感到興奮，這就是道格之前提到的新的成長機會。因此，我們對我們在該類別中的進展感到非常滿意，我們可以繼續發展。

I think the other thing, Ruben is we've got like a [DIGs] line that really is a great positioning for the female and the gardening side. And now our retail partner wants us to expand that name into other products because it's really starting to take hold. So we've got some interesting things there. We also are introducing a higher end, if you will, tool bag that a lot of the pros want.

我認為另一件事，Ruben 是我們有一條 [DIGs] 系列，對於女性和園藝方面來說確實是一個很好的定位。現在我們的零售合作夥伴希望我們將這個名稱擴展到其他產品中，因為它確實開始流行。所以我們有一些有趣的事情。如果您願意的話，我們還推出了許多專業人士想要的更高端的工具包。

And it's the first time and the price points up there pretty high, but the quality is fantastic. So we're trying to think differently in that work gear and knee pads because the pro the more we interview them and get to know them, they don't like buying four or five of these a year. They like buying one and bragging about the fact that it will last three years. And historically, these retailers don't want to hit that price point. They now know they can hit that price point if they have the right goods.

這是第一次，價格相當高，但品質很棒。因此，我們試圖以不同的方式思考工作裝備和護膝，因為我們採訪他們並了解他們越多，他們就不喜歡一年購買四到五個。他們喜歡買一個並吹噓它可以使用三年。從歷史上看，這些零售商並不想達到這個價格點。他們現在知道，如果擁有合適的商品，他們就能達到這個價格點。

Yes, I think Ruben the only thing I would add just -- if people are modeling it, we think PS will look a lot like the overall guide for the year, probably without the price pressure.

是的，我認為 Ruben 是我唯一要補充的——如果人們對其進行建模，我們認為 PS 看起來很像今年的整體指南，可能沒有價格壓力。

Got it. And then it's been a little while since M&A has been part of the story, can you kind of maybe remind us of -- are there other areas like rope and chain that are left from a bolt-on perspective in the hardware aisle? Or are you starting to get to the point where you've got to go outside of hardware to try to grow the business?

知道了。自從併購成為故事的一部分以來已經有一段時間了，您能否提醒我們 - 從硬體通道的螺栓固定角度來看，是否還存在其他領域，例如繩索和鏈條？或者您已經開始必須超越硬體來嘗試發展業務？

You know, I would say there's probably an equal amount inside hardware. I would say that ZIP Code like Koch. And then obviously, we always are looking and thinking through plumbing and electrical, which we would consider more than just around the corner. That we would consider that outside.

你知道，我想說硬體內部可能有相同數量的東西。我會說像科赫這樣的郵遞區號。顯然，我們總是在尋找和思考管道和電氣，我們會考慮更多的不僅僅是指日可待的事情。我們會在外面考慮這一點。

But we're looking at both. And again, nothing crazy, but when you think about buying something at, call it six times pre-synergy and then you add what we're able to do with the business, not just from a cost standpoint, but what we -- with our relationship with our service capability, the top line in that business is not going to look anything like it has historically.

但我們正在考慮兩者。再說一次，沒什麼瘋狂的，但是當你考慮購買某樣東西時，將其稱為六倍預協同，然後你添加我們能夠對業務做的事情，不僅僅是從成本的角度來看，而是我們——與我們與我們的服務能力的關係，該業務的營收將不會像歷史上那樣。

Great. Congrats on the strong close to last year and good luck this year, guys.

偉大的。恭喜去年的強勁表現，祝今年好運，夥計們。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, Reuben

謝謝，魯本

Brian McNamara, Canaccord.

布萊恩·麥克納馬拉，Canaccord。

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. On pricing, Doug, I know you have foreshadowed this for some time, but price minus 1% in 2024 is probably a little bit better than I would have expected. As we've heard, some of your retail customers, particularly the home centers haven't been shy to ask for price back. What could it make that minus 1% materially better or worse as the year goes on? Or is that a pretty good place to lock in?

早上好傢伙。感謝您提出問題。關於定價，Doug，我知道你已經預示這一點有一段時間了，但 2024 年價格負 1% 可能比我的預期要好一些。正如我們所知，你們的一些零售客戶，尤其是家居中心，並不羞於要求退款。隨著時間的推移，負1%會帶來什麼實質上的改善或惡化？或者說這是一個鎖定的好地方？

Yeah, Brian, I think it's a little -- so here's the way to think about it, that 1% is a little bigger than 1% as you think about the timing for those decreases. And let's just use an example. Let's say something goes into effect in June. It may be impacting our '24 as such, but it then rolls into '25 in the first half. So the 1% is accurate, but it's a little bigger than that. The answer to your question is how things roll.

是的，Brian，我認為這有點 - 所以這是思考這個問題的方式，當你考慮這些下降的時間時，1% 比 1% 稍大一些。讓我們舉一個例子。假設某件事將於六月生效。它可能會影響我們的 24 週年，但隨後在上半場進入 25 週年。所以1%是準確的，但比這個大一些。你的問題的答案是事情如何發展。

The only thing I would add, Brian, this is Rocky, is when you think about costs, we've seen a nice benefit on containers, and we've talked about that. But virtually every other category that we look at, there's inflation, I mean, and we're all seeing it. I mean, labor isn't getting cheaper. Once you get product -- we get product into the United States, it's not getting cheaper.

我唯一要補充的是，布萊恩，這是洛基，當你考慮成本時，我們已經看到了容器的巨大好處，我們已經討論過這一點。但我的意思是，幾乎我們關注的所有其他類別都存在通貨膨脹，而且我們都看到了。我的意思是，勞動力並沒有變得更便宜。一旦你拿到產品——我們把產品運到美國，它就不會變得更便宜。

And while we did see a bit last year and continue to see a bit of commodity benefit, as you know, as we sit today, we've seen the cost of steel in Taiwan and China go up pretty dramatically now. That typically happens during the Chinese New Year, and we'll see what happens after Chinese New Year. But as you know, as we think about our business and think about the future, there's a lot of prices in a lot of different direction, that helps us to explain why our prices need to be what they need to be so we get a fair profit.

雖然我們去年確實看到了一些，並且繼續看到了一些大宗商品的好處，但正如你所知，正如我們今天所坐的那樣，我們已經看到台灣和中國大陸的鋼鐵成本現在大幅上漲。這通常發生在農曆新年期間，我們將看看農曆新年之後會發生什麼。但正如你所知，當我們思考我們的業務並思考未來時，有很多不同方向的價格，這有助於我們解釋為什麼我們的價格需要是他們需要的，這樣我們才能得到公平的價格利潤。

That's fair. I guess with what with Home Depot expecting another year of customers taking on smaller projects, deferring larger product projects, does this materially impact your ability to plan and guide the business?

這還算公平。我想家得寶預計客戶又會在一年內承擔較小的項目，推遲較大的產品項目，這是否會對您規劃和指導業務的能力產生重大影響？

I don't think so. I think we play in the pickup truck and the DIYer, the thing we're looking for is people to get off cruise ships in and out of concert halls, so they get back into the backyard. And I mean that probably -- the DIYer or the pickup truck pros about where they've been, the DIYer, Brian, is the one that's off. And we're hoping that we'll see that start to pick up and normalize a little bit. I don't know how they're going to do what they want to do when you look at the price of airline tickets right now. So that's the part we'd like to see improved.

我不這麼認為。我認為我們在皮卡車和DIYer中演奏，我們正在尋找的是人們從遊輪上進出音樂廳，這樣他們就可以回到後院。我的意思是，DIY 者或皮卡車專業人士可能會談論他們去過的地方，DIY 者布萊恩，就是那個被淘汰的人。我們希望我們能看到這種情況開始有所好轉並趨於正常化。當你看看現在的機票價格時，我不知道他們將如何做他們想做的事情。這就是我們希望看到改進的部分。

Got it. And I'll just squeeze in one last one, a quick one. After a really nice year of free cash flow generation last year. How should investors think about sustainable cash flow generation in the business given the last few years haven't been particularly normal?

知道了。我會擠進最後一張，很快的。去年是自由現金流產生的非常好的一年。鑑於過去幾年的情況不太正常，投資人應該如何看待企業永續現金流的產生？

Yeah, I think I said in my prepared remarks, Brian. We think this is $130 million to $140 million of free cash flow kind of normal benefit. If you look over the last two years, we did $172 million last year. We're guiding to about $110 million this year. If you average those out, that's just north of that price, $140 million, $142 million. And so that's what we think is kind of a normal generation in the business should be.

是的，我想我在準備好的演講中說過，布萊恩。我們認為這是 1.3 億至 1.4 億美元的自由現金流，屬於正常收益。如果你回顧過去兩年，我們去年的收入為 1.72 億美元。今年我們的目標是大約 1.1 億美元。如果你把它們平均起來，那就是高於這個價格，1.4 億美元，1.42 億美元。這就是我們認為商業界正常世代該有的樣子。

We'll grow that cash flow over time as we grow EBITDA. The one challenge that we will have as we think about the future a bit, is around taxes because we're not a full cash taxpayer in the US today, we will be eventually. And then the flip side is we expect to continue to pay down debt, and as we do, we'll obviously bring that interest line down as well. So, you know, $130 million to $140 million feels like a good number. We've guided to $110 million this year and obviously we would be disappointed if we don't do better than that as we go through the year.

隨著 EBITDA 的成長，我們的現金流也會隨著時間的推移而成長。當我們思考未來時，我們將面臨的一個挑戰是稅收，因為我們今天在美國還不是一個完全的現金納稅人，我們最終會成為這樣的。另一方面，我們預計將繼續償還債務，而當我們這樣做時，我們顯然也會降低利息線。所以，你知道，1.3 億到 1.4 億美元感覺是一個不錯的數字。今年我們的目標是 1.1 億美元，如果今年我們沒有做得更好，我們顯然會感到失望。

Got it. Thanks a lot, guys. Best of luck.

知道了。非常感謝，夥計們。祝你好運。

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布萊恩。

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布萊恩。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the Q&A portion of today's call. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Cahill for closing remarks.

謝謝。女士們先生們，今天電話會議的問答部分到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回給卡希爾先生做總結發言。

Thank you. Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Again, we're lucky to have the customers we do. We've got great vendor partners and importantly, most importantly, this team at Hillman continues to do things for us each and every day, particularly in the store for our customers that that allows us to grow and allows us to continue to be, find ways to do more. So we look forward to updating you again in the near future and thank you for joining us this morning.

謝謝。謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。再說一遍，我們很幸運能擁有這樣的客戶。我們擁有優秀的供應商合作夥伴，最重要的是，Hillman 的團隊每天都在繼續為我們做事，特別是在商店中為我們的客戶服務，這使我們能夠成長並讓我們能夠繼續尋找做更多事情的方法。因此，我們期待在不久的將來再次向您通報最新情況，並感謝您今天早上加入我們。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。