Howard Hughes Holdings Inc (HHH) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Howard Hughes' first-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝各位稍候，歡迎參加 Howard Hughes 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

I would now like to hand the call over to Joe Valane, General Counsel. Please go ahead.

現在我想把電話交給總法律顧問 Joe Valane。請開始。

Good morning, and welcome to the Howard Hughes Holdings first-quarter 2026 earnings call. With me today are Bill Ackman, Executive Chairman; Ryan Israel, Chief Investment Officer; David O'Reilly, Chief Executive Officer; Carlos Olea, Chief Financial Officer; Jill Chapman, who leads Investor Relations at Pershing Square; and Marc Grandisson, who joined the Howard Hughes Board just yesterday.

各位早安，歡迎參加 Howard Hughes Holdings 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：執行董事長 Bill Ackman；投資長 Ryan Israel；執行長 David O'Reilly；財務長 Carlos Olea；負責 Pershing Square 投資人關係的 Jill Chapman；以及就在昨天剛加入 Howard Hughes 董事會的 Marc Grandisson。

Before we begin, I would like to direct you to our website, www.howardhughes.com, where you can download both our first-quarter earnings press release and our supplemental package. The earnings release and supplemental package include reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures that will be discussed today in relation to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

在開始之前，我想請各位前往我們的網站 www.howardhughes.com，您可在此下載我們第一季財報新聞稿以及補充資料包。財報新聞稿與補充資料包包含非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表；我們今天將討論這些非 GAAP 指標，並與其最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標進行對照。

Certain statements made today that are not in the present tense or that discuss the company's expectations are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Although the company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, we can give no assurance that these expectations will be achieved.

今天所作的某些陳述若非以現在式表達，或討論公司之預期，則依聯邦證券法之定義屬於前瞻性陳述。儘管公司相信此等前瞻性陳述所反映之預期係基於合理假設，我們仍無法保證這些預期將會實現。

Please see the forward-looking statement disclaimer in our first-quarter earnings press release and the risk factors in our SEC filings for factors that could cause material differences between forward-looking statements and actual results. We are not under any duty to update forward-looking statements unless required by law.

請參閱我們第一季財報新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述免責聲明，以及我們向 SEC 申報文件中的風險因素；其中列示可能導致前瞻性陳述與實際結果出現重大差異的因素。除非法律要求，我們不負有更新前瞻性陳述之義務。

I will now turn the call over to our Executive Chairman, Bill Ackman.

現在我將把電話交給我們的執行董事長 Bill Ackman。

Thank you, Joe.

謝謝你，Joe。

So those of you on the call probably have seen a presentation we put out providing some perspectives on how we think about Howard Hughes from a valuation perspective. The company is going through a transition in terms of its business model, and we think there's been a pretty meaningful transition -- or at least, at the beginning of the transition in our shareholder base, we thought this was a good time for us to kind of share how we think about the company and to provide some, I would say, better metrics to think about valuation going forward.

各位在電話上的朋友可能已經看過我們發布的一份簡報，提供我們從估值角度如何看待 Howard Hughes 的一些觀點。公司正處於商業模式的轉型期，而我們認為在股東結構方面也正在發生相當有意義的轉變——至少在轉變初期——因此我們覺得這是個合適的時點，與大家分享我們如何看待公司，並提供一些我會說是更好的指標，作為未來估值思考的依據。

So our plan for the call is we're going to start with David O'Reilly giving kind of a comprehensive brief update on the quarter. I'll just talk a bit about kind of KPIs. Ryan will speak briefly about valuation. We'll introduce Marc to the group, and then we'll leave the substantial majority of the time for Q&A.

因此，本次電話會議的安排是：我們先由 David O'Reilly 對本季做一個相對全面、簡要的更新。我會談一點關於關鍵績效指標（KPI）。Ryan 會簡短談談估值。我們會向各位介紹 Marc，然後把絕大部分時間留給問答。

So why don't we start with David. Go ahead, David.

那我們就從 David 開始吧。David，請。

Thank you, Bill. Good morning, everyone. I'm going to start with the first half of the presentation, and as you probably saw, it's organized into two parts. The first part, it really focuses on the first-quarter results of Howard Hughes Communities real estate business. Using the slides from the supplemental, I'm going to be covering the four key performance areas of our communities: master plan communities, operating assets, condominiums, and then other expenses, along with our debt and liquidity position.

謝謝你，Bill。各位早安。我將從簡報的前半段開始；如各位可能已看到，內容分為兩個部分。第一部分主要聚焦於 Howard Hughes Communities 房地產業務的第一季成果。我將使用補充資料包中的投影片，涵蓋我們社區業務的四個關鍵績效領域：總體規劃社區（MPC）、營運資產、公寓住宅（Condominiums），以及其他費用；並一併說明我們的負債與流動性狀況。

As you saw, we're introducing several new KPIs this quarter, and we believe these better reflect how we manage the business and how long-term value accrues within each segment. I'll reference those as I cover the results. Then, we'll turn to the second half of the presentation, where, as Bill mentioned, he and Ryan will do a deeper dive in what those new metrics reveal about our current valuation and the long-term growth of this platform. The goal is always to give investors a more complete picture of where Howard Hughes is headed and why we believe the stock represents a compelling opportunity.

如各位所見，我們本季導入數項新的 KPI，我們相信這些指標更能反映我們如何管理業務，以及長期價值如何在各個事業分部中累積。我在說明結果時會引用這些指標。接著，我們會進入簡報後半段；如 Bill 所提，他與 Ryan 將更深入探討這些新指標對我們目前估值與此平台長期成長所揭示的意涵。我們的目標一向是讓投資人更完整了解 Howard Hughes 的發展方向，以及我們為何相信該股票具備相當吸引力的投資機會。

I'm also sure you noticed that our earnings release no longer includes annual guidance. Given the pending acquisition of Vantage, we've elected to remove annual guidance expectations and will instead shift our focus to longer-term objectives by platform, consistent with how we allocate capital and measure success internally.

我也相信各位注意到，我們的財報新聞稿已不再提供年度財測指引。鑑於 Vantage 的收購案尚待完成，我們決定移除年度指引預期，並改為將重點轉向各平台的長期目標；這與我們內部配置資本與衡量成功的方式一致。

With that said, the first-quarter results I'm about to review, and specifically our land sales and MPC EBT, were ahead of our expectations. And if not for the transaction, we would have increased MPC EBT guidance for the year. With that, let's talk about the first-quarter performance, starting on slide 4 with the company highlights.

話雖如此，我接下來要回顧的第一季結果——特別是我們的土地銷售與 MPC 稅前盈餘（EBT）——均優於我們的預期。若非因為這筆交易，我們原本會上調今年的 MPC EBT 指引。接下來我們來談第一季表現，先從第 4 頁投影片的公司重點開始。

It was a strong start to 2026. The real estate engine did exactly what we needed to do. It grew cash, it provided pricing power, and it converted more land into long-duration income. We saw a strong MPC earnings growth, continued leasing momentum across the operating assets, and the company ended the quarter with substantial liquidity.

2026 年開局強勁。房地產引擎完全達成我們所需的目標。它增加了現金、提供了定價能力，並將更多土地轉化為長天期的收益。我們看到 MPC 獲利強勁成長、營運資產持續的租賃動能，而公司在季末也維持充足的流動性。

On five, as part of this new supplemental, we're providing a simpler roadmap to show how performance of our communities connects to the overall valuation platform. We'll be focusing on the following four key areas that we'll step through in turn: Master Planned Communities EBT and margin affected residual land value, operating asset adjusted maintenance free cash flow, Condo gross profit, and other expenses, which includes G&A and net interest expense.

在第 5 頁，作為這份新補充資料的一部分，我們提供一個更簡明的路線圖，說明社區業務的表現如何連結到整體估值平台。我們將聚焦並依序說明以下四個關鍵領域：總體規劃社區（MPC）的稅前盈餘（EBT）與影響剩餘土地價值的利潤率、營運資產經調整的維護後自由現金流、公寓毛利，以及其他費用（包含一般及行政費用 G&A 與淨利息費用）。

So let's start on slide 6 with the MPCs. Earnings before taxes was $84 million in the first quarter, up 33% year over year, driven by higher residential land sales. In Bridgeland, we closed 62 acres at an average price of $688,000 per acre. That compares to 37 acres and $605,000 per acre last year, with net new home sales in Bridgeland up 12%. In Summerlin, custom lots averaged $7.2 million per acre and superpads averaged $1.8 million per acre, and new home sales in Summerlin were up 6%.

我們先從第 6 頁的 MPC 開始。第一季稅前盈餘為 8,400 萬美元，年增 33%，主要由更高的住宅用地銷售所帶動。在 Bridgeland，我們完成交割 62 英畝，平均價格為每英畝 68.8 萬美元。相較之下，去年為 37 英畝、每英畝 60.5 萬美元；Bridgeland 的淨新增新屋銷售量年增 12%。在 Summerlin，客製化地塊平均每英畝 720 萬美元，superpads 平均每英畝 180 萬美元，而 Summerlin 的新屋銷售量年增 6%。

The point -- it's not just that volumes were higher; the point is that we're converting scarce, entitled, developer-ready land into cash at an increasingly attractive price in markets where we effectively control supply. We're not selling land; we're harvesting scarcity. As our communities mature, price becomes a primary driver of MPC value, which means we can generate more cash from fewer acres while protecting the long-term economics of the land bank.

重點——不只是成交量更高；重點在於，我們正以愈來愈具吸引力的價格，將稀缺、已取得開發許可、可立即供開發商使用的土地轉換為現金；而在這些市場中，我們實質上掌控供給。我們不是在賣土地；我們是在收割稀缺性。隨著社區逐步成熟，價格將成為 MPC 價值的主要驅動因素，這意味著我們可以用更少的英畝數創造更多現金，同時維護土地儲備的長期經濟效益。

Shifting to operating assets on slide 7. Our operating asset NOI grew 2% year over year and 7% on a trailing 12-month same-store basis. Within the portfolio, multifamily and office were the primary drivers of same-store growth, supported by continuing leasing activity and the burn-off of rent abatements.

接著看第 7 頁的營運資產。我們的營運資產 NOI 年增 2%，以過去 12 個月同店（same-store）基礎計算則成長 7%。在投資組合中，多戶住宅與辦公室是同店成長的主要驅動因素，並受惠於持續的租賃活動以及租金減免逐步到期消退。

More important than the quarterly print is what this segment represents for the holding company we're building. Operating assets are the steady cash flow engine. As we move land into vertical development and lease-up, we convert one-time MPC proceeds into a growing recurring base of NOI diversified by asset type, tenant, and market. This quarter, we're also introducing adjusted maintenance free cash flow because we believe this metric gives a cleaner read on the recurring property level cash flow that is actually available to redeploy.

比起單季數字本身，更重要的是這個部門對我們正在打造的控股公司所代表的意義。營運資產是穩定現金流的引擎。隨著我們將土地推進垂直開發並完成出租，我們把一次性的MPC收益轉化為不斷成長的經常性NOI基礎，並在資產類型、租戶與市場之間實現多元化。本季我們也引入「調整後維護自由現金流」，因為我們相信這個指標能更清楚地反映實際可再部署的、物業層級的經常性現金流。

Turning to Condos on slide 8. At Ward Village, we completed Ulana and broke ground on Launiu, which is already 70% pre-sold. Across the platform, we have approximately $5 billion of estimated future GAAP revenue at sellout. Condo gross profit was roughly breakeven in the first quarter, as expected, and will increase meaningfully in the second quarter with Park Ward Village closings.

接著看第8頁的公寓（Condo）。在Ward Village，我們完成了Ulana並為Launiu動工，而Launiu目前已預售70%。在整個平台上，我們在售罄時估計約有50億美元的未來GAAP收入。第一季公寓毛利約為損益兩平，符合預期；第二季隨著Park Ward Village交屋，毛利將顯著提升。

Condo profit is always going to be recognized in large blocks when towers deliver. So the quarterly pattern is going to remain lumpy, even though the underlying economics are largely locked in through pre-sales. These projects are largely derisked, well in advance of GAAP recognition. We typically pre-sell the majority of the units, fund construction with buyer deposits and non-recourse construction loans, and lock in our margins years before delivery. Estimated future Condo gross profit, the total projected gross profit from Condo towers under construction or an active pre-development, the vast majority of which are already pre-sold, highlights the embedded Condo cash flow well ahead of when it appears on the income statement.

公寓利潤一向會在大樓交付時以大筆方式認列。因此，即使基礎經濟性大多已透過預售鎖定，季度表現仍將維持波動不均。這些專案在GAAP認列之前很久就已大幅去風險。我們通常預售大多數單位，以買方訂金與無追索權的建築貸款支應施工，並在交付前數年就鎖定利潤率。「估計未來公寓毛利」——即在建或處於積極前期開發階段的公寓大樓之總預計毛利，其中絕大多數已預售——凸顯了在其出現在損益表之前就已內嵌的公寓現金流。

I want to spend a minute because I think the capital mechanics here are worth walking through. They make these economics of Condo development unusually compelling. Our primary contribution to these projects is land, along with a modest amount of cash. We contribute that land and that modest cash as our equity.

我想花一點時間，因為我認為這裡的資本運作機制值得逐步說明。它讓公寓開發的經濟性格外具有吸引力。我們對這些專案的主要投入是土地，外加少量現金。我們將該土地與少量現金作為我們的股權投入。

From there, buyer deposits are collected at signing, often years before towers deliver, and they fund a meaningful portion of construction costs. Non-recourse construction financing covers the majority of the remaining required capital. The result is that we're delivering towers worth hundreds of millions of dollars with very little of our own cash actually at risk.

接著，買方在簽約時即繳交訂金，往往在大樓交付前數年就已收取，並可支應相當一部分的建造成本。無追索權的建築融資涵蓋其餘所需資本的大部分。結果是，我們在自有現金實際承擔風險很小的情況下，就能交付價值數億美元的住宅大樓。

When units close, buyers pay the full purchase price, we repay the construction loan, and the profit flows to us. It's a model where our buyers and lenders are essentially financing the construction and we collect the upside at the end. That's what we mean when we say condos are a self-financing capital recycling tool. And it's why this business generates returns that are difficult to replicate.

在單位交屋時，買方支付全額購屋款，我們償還建築貸款，利潤則流向我們。這是一種由買方與放款人本質上為建造提供資金，而我們在最後收取上行收益的模式。這就是我們所說公寓是「自我融資的資本循環工具」的意思。也因此，這項業務能產生難以複製的報酬。

Beyond condos, projects like 1 Riva Row, One Bridgeland Green, and others in our pipeline follow that same land-to-income pattern, convert entitled land into durable NOI, grow the recurring cash engine, and raise the long-term earnings power of the platform.

除了公寓之外，我們管線中的1 Riva Row、One Bridgeland Green等專案也遵循同樣的「土地轉收入」模式，把已取得權利的土地轉化為持久的NOI，擴大經常性現金引擎，並提升平台的長期獲利能力。

On slide 9, we'll turn to other expenses. G&A expense was $25.8 million in the quarter, including $3.8 million of Pershing fees and $3.4 million of Vantage-related transaction costs. And net interest expense declined year-over-year due primarily to the amount of interest income we've received from our invested cash balances during the quarter and on a trailing 12-month basis.

第9頁我們來看其他費用。本季G&A費用為2,580萬美元，其中包含380萬美元的Pershing費用與340萬美元與Vantage相關的交易成本。淨利息費用年減，主要是因為本季以及過去12個月期間，我們從投資的現金餘額中取得的利息收入增加。

On slide 10, I'll turn to the balance sheet and wrap up. We completed a $1 billion refinancing at the tightest credit spreads in the company's history during the first quarter. Importantly, this execution occurred after announcing the Vantage acquisition, which we view as a strong external validation of both our balance sheet and our strategy. The transaction extended our maturities and added $230 million of incremental liquidity. We also closed on a $300 million mortgage at downtown Summerlin.

第10頁我將談談資產負債表並作結。第一季我們完成了10億美元的再融資，信用利差為公司史上最緊。重要的是，這次執行是在宣布收購Vantage之後完成的，我們視其為外部對我們資產負債表與策略的強力驗證。該交易延長了到期結構，並增加2.30億美元的額外流動性。我們也完成了位於downtown Summerlin的3億美元抵押貸款。

At the end of the quarter, we finished with $1.8 billion of cash, comprised of $907 million at the HHH level and $929 million at the HHC level and significant additional liquidity.

截至季末，我們持有18億美元現金，其中HHH層級為9.07億美元、HHC層級為9.29億美元，並且還有可觀的額外流動性。

That position, combined with the Pershing preferred commitment, fully funds the Vantage acquisition and supports our current development pipeline, while continuing to preserve our flexibility for future capital allocation decisions.

這一部位，加上Pershing的優先股承諾，足以完全資助Vantage收購並支持我們目前的開發管線，同時也持續保留我們在未來資本配置決策上的彈性。

So the overall takeaway for the quarter, I think it's the real estate foundation of Howard Hughes is doing its job, it's generating strong cash flow, demonstrating pricing power in our MPCs and expanding our base of recurring NOI and recycling capital in a way that supports our evolution into a multi-engine holding company.

因此，本季整體重點是：我認為Howard Hughes的房地產基礎正在發揮作用——它正在產生強勁現金流、在我們的MPC中展現定價能力、擴大經常性NOI基礎，並以支持我們演進為多引擎控股公司的方式進行資本循環。

The first quarter performance primarily reflects the resilient demand in our communities that lead to bottom line results. NPC earnings will continue to be lumpy quarter-to-quarter depending on when large parcels close, but what matters for us and what I encourage you to focus on is the multi-year growth in recurring cash flow and the value embedded in the land and condo pipeline, rather than the precise results of any given quarter.

第一季表現主要反映了我們社區中具韌性的需求，並帶動了最終獲利結果。NPC獲利將會因大型地塊何時成交而在季度間持續呈現不均，但對我們而言、更希望各位聚焦的是經常性現金流的多年成長，以及土地與公寓管線中所蘊含的價值，而不是任何單一季度的精確結果。

The new metrics Bill and Ryan are going to walk through in a minute are designed with exactly that in mind to make it easier to connect reported results to intrinsic value. And with that, I'll turn it over to Bill.

Bill和Ryan稍後將說明的新指標正是基於這個目的而設計，讓大家更容易把已揭露的結果與內在價值連結起來。接下來我把時間交給Bill。

Thanks, David. So what we're doing here, maybe just to back up for a second, I think historically the company has tried to create. Kind of a quarterly number that shareholders could annualize and maybe put a multiple on. The vast majority of companies are valued that way. Analysts estimate earnings, the market assigns a multiple based on the inherent growth and predictability of that earnings stream, and that helps people come to a value. The problem with that metric is it doesn't really work for Howard Hughes. We really have three different segments, perhaps one of them. The operating asset segment, you could certainly value out of multiple of a metric. But the other two are a bit unusual. So our MPC business is really a business of owning land. And the goal of these communities is to make them really attractive places to live. And we've developed assets to meet that demand in our operating asset segment. And over time, what that's done is brought more residents into the communities.

謝謝，David。我們在這裡所做的事，或許先退一步說，歷史上公司一直嘗試建立——某種股東可以把它年化、再套用倍數的季度數字。絕大多數公司都是用這種方式估值。分析師預估獲利，市場依據該獲利流的內在成長性與可預測性給予倍數，進而幫助大家得出價值。但這個指標的問題在於，它對Howard Hughes並不真正適用。我們其實有三個不同的部門，也許其中之一——營運資產部門，確實可以用某個指標的倍數來估值。但另外兩個就比較不尋常。因此，我們的MPC業務本質上是持有土地的生意。這些社區的目標是把它們打造為非常適合居住的地方。而我們在營運資產部門開發資產以滿足這些需求。隨著時間推移，這帶來了更多居民進入這些社區。

Increases demand for land, that's led to continuous, at a well in excess of inflation, increases in the value of our land portfolio. But putting a multiple. On the profit, the gap profit from a portion of the land sale for a quarter, it's not a particularly helpful metric. What really matters is how much cash do we generate from our land sales during the quarter and what's the value of our remaining land. And so our new metric is going to focus on those two levels. What's interesting about these communities is every acre of land we know for a certainty we're going to sell. We don't know precisely which quarter we're going to sell it in.

這提升了對土地的需求，並導致我們的土地組合價值持續上升，且增幅遠高於通膨。但若要對——某一季度部分土地出售所產生的GAAP利潤套用倍數，並不是特別有用的指標。真正重要的是：我們在該季度從土地銷售中產生了多少現金，以及我們剩餘土地的價值是多少。因此，我們的新指標將聚焦在這兩個層面。這些社區有趣之處在於，我們可以確定每一英畝土地最終都會出售。我們只是不知道會精確落在哪一個季度出售。

And so what matters to you is what do we generate during the quarter, what price do we achieve, and what's the value of the remaining land that we own. So that will play into the metrics we're talking about. With respect to operating asset NOI as a metric, well, net operating income is a metric that's used by really every real estate company. At the end of the day, what we focus on is the cash that's generated from this portfolio. So what is, you start with NOI, but you got to take off their costs associated with maintaining those assets, with putting tenants in those assets, and we want to reflect those costs, we get to a cash flow metric. Our condominium business, so we don't have an infinite supply of land in.

因此，對你而言重要的是：我們在本季產生了什麼、我們達成了什麼價格，以及我們仍持有的剩餘土地價值是多少。所以這會納入我們正在討論的各項衡量指標。就「營運資產 NOI」作為一項指標而言，淨營運收入確實是幾乎每一家房地產公司都會使用的指標。歸根結底，我們關注的是這個投資組合所產生的現金。因此，你會從 NOI 開始，但必須扣除維護這些資產、為這些資產招租所相關的成本；我們希望反映這些成本，進而得到一個現金流量指標。我們的公寓（condominium）業務，因為我們在……並沒有無限的土地供應。

Honolulu, we've got a finite supply of land. We have an amazing team and that team is actually a valuable asset of the company that we're not today assigning value to. We do think over time we'll have more opportunities.

在檀香山，我們的土地供應是有限的。我們有一支非常出色的團隊，而這支團隊其實是公司的一項有價值資產，但我們目前尚未對其賦值。我們確實認為，隨著時間推進，我們將會有更多機會。

To access more land and continue that business. But today, for the purpose of, we want these metrics to be simple to understand and also conservative. And so what we're saying is, look, we've got a finite amount of land today, and the basis of that finite amount of land, we intend to build a certain number of condominiums. We estimate a gross profit, and that's how we get, and we present value that today to kind of keep track of the remaining value of that portfolio. So if we go to page 13.

去取得更多土地並延續該業務。但就目前而言，出於……我們希望這些指標易於理解，同時也要保守。因此我們的意思是：看，我們目前的土地量是有限的，而基於這一有限土地的成本基礎（basis），我們打算興建一定數量的公寓。我們估算一個毛利，並以此推導，然後把它折現到今天，以便追蹤該投資組合的剩餘價值。所以如果我們翻到第 13 頁。

On the new metrics. So what we're going to give you is kind of the residual value of our remaining acreage, undiscounted and uninflated. What we mean to say is, if we sell lots for $1,800,000 or acres for $1,800,000 in Summerlin, we're going to use that to value the remaining residential land portfolio at the end of the quarter. Now that, I believe, is a conservative metric because land values have.

關於新的指標。我們將提供的是我們剩餘土地面積的某種「殘餘價值」，不折現、也不考慮通膨。我們的意思是，如果我們在 Summerlin 以 1,800,000 美元出售地塊或以 1,800,000 美元出售每英畝土地，我們就會用這個價格來評估本季末剩餘住宅用地投資組合的價值。我認為這是一個保守的指標，因為土地價值已經。

Compounded at rates well in excess of the cost of capital that you should discount them at Howard Hughes, and let me just make my case for that for a second. We've compounded land values in the 10s in Summerland, correct? So let's pick a number, it's been what over the last five years?

以遠高於你在 Howard Hughes 應採用之折現資本成本的速度在複利成長；我先用一點時間說明我的理由。我們在 Summerlin 的土地價值以 10% 多的速度複利成長，對吧？那我們選個數字，過去五年大概是多少？

15%?

15%？

Five years, it's been just under 15% in Summerlin, and it's been 68% in Woodland Hills in Richland.

五年來，Summerlin 略低於 15%，而在 Woodland Hills 的 Richland 則是 68%。

Okay, so in Summerlin, which is a further built-out community, you've got land that's appreciated at 15% per annum. Again, because it's a certainty we will sell this land because these are fully developed communities, the discount rate I would use there would be a relatively modest spread over treasury. So using today's value for the land is one.

好，所以在 Summerlin——這是一個開發更成熟的社區——土地每年升值 15%。同樣地，因為我們確定會出售這些土地，因為這些都是完全開發的社區，所以我會使用的折現率，會是在公債利率之上相對不高的利差。因此使用土地的當期價值是其中一種。

That I think is a very conservative measure of remaining land. If the land continues to appreciate at these kind of levels and you discount them back at lower levels, the land values are even greater than what we're showing. Operating asset, adjusted maintenance, free cash flow, what are we doing here? We're starting with NOI and we're getting to an actual free money we can spend metric after all the costs associated with owning these assets.

我認為這是衡量剩餘土地的一個非常保守的方法。如果土地持續以這樣的水準升值，而你又以較低的折現率把它折回來，那麼土地價值甚至會高於我們所呈現的數字。「營運資產、調整後維護、自由現金流」——我們在這裡做什麼？我們從 NOI 出發，在扣除擁有這些資產所相關的所有成本之後，得到一個我們可以實際支配的自由現金（free money we can spend）指標。

And then we project the profits from our remaining condominium deliveries. It's pretty straightforward to do this because, for example, for units that we have under contract, we know exactly what price we're selling for. We generally have GMP contracts. We lock in, for the most part, the cost to build them, and then it's a present value calculation. With that, let me just -- we're not going to take you through every page of the deck because we want to leave a lot of time for answering questions. So Ryan's just kind of just focus on some summary evaluation pages. We'll start with today's value and how we get to thinking what's possible over the next five years.

接著我們預測剩餘公寓交付所帶來的利潤。這樣做相當直接，因為例如對於已簽約的單位，我們清楚知道售價是多少。我們通常採用 GMP（最高保證價格）合約。在很大程度上，我們把建造成本鎖定下來，然後再做現值計算。基於此，我們就——我們不會帶各位逐頁看完整份簡報，因為我們希望保留大量時間回答問題。所以 Ryan 會把重點放在一些摘要性的估值頁面。我們會從今天的價值開始，以及我們如何推導未來五年可能達成的情況。

So what we wanted to do, as Bill mentioned in the pages that we've provided that we won't walk through all the detail on this call, is we wanted to show you how using the metrics that we believe are the right way to think about long-term value when we make our own internal valuation as well as tracking our progress over time, I'll just highlight on Page 27 kind of the takeaway, we believe today using those metrics. As Bill mentioned, conservatively trying to come up with a value for HHH, we think that the intrinsic value of the business based on those metrics is about $104 a share, which is more than 60% higher than the roughly $65 share price today. And when you look at that in detail, nearly 80% of that is coming from the Howard Hughes community's real estate business, and about 20% of that is coming from the economic ownership percentage that Howard Hughes will have advantage, which we are on track to close very shortly.

如 Bill 所提到的，在我們提供的頁面中（本次電話會議不會逐一詳述），我們想展示的是：使用我們認為用來思考長期價值的正確指標——這些也是我們內部做估值以及隨時間追蹤進展所用的指標——我只想在第 27 頁強調一下重點結論：我們相信以這些指標來看，在今天。如 Bill 所說，我們以保守方式試圖為 HHH 估值；我們認為基於這些指標，該業務的內在價值約為每股 104 美元，較目前約 65 美元的股價高出 60% 以上。而當你細看之後，接近 80% 來自 Howard Hughes 社區的房地產業務，約 20% 來自 Howard Hughes 將持有的 Vantage 經濟持股比例；我們正按計畫在非常短期內完成交割。

We believe that the shares are very undervalued relative to our estimate today. But if you go to Page 42, what you'll see is really our benchmark for how we believe we can grow the intrinsic value of Howard Hughes over the next five years. And we actually think that we have the ability, and that's one of the reasons we're so excited to have Mark come join us, as he'll be very helpful as we achieve these metrics, to grow the intrinsic value of the business to roughly more than $200 a share. We have about $211 that we've derived conservatively. For our valuation in 2030, which is about 3.3 times the current share price, 65% or 203% increase. And what's interesting about that metric is today, nearly 80% of the value of Howard Hughes coming from the real estate business. But we actually think over the next five years, we're going to have much more of the value coming from Vantage, other insurance, and some of the high durable growth companies we seek to acquire. So that ratio will shift to about two-thirds coming from things that are not related to real estate.

我們認為，相對於我們目前的估計，股價被嚴重低估。但如果你翻到第 42 頁，你會看到我們對於未來五年如何提升 Howard Hughes 內在價值的基準（benchmark）。我們其實認為我們有能力做到——這也是我們非常期待 Mark 加入的原因之一；他將在我們達成這些指標的過程中提供很大幫助——把公司的內在價值提升到約每股 200 美元以上。我們以保守方式推導出的數字約為 211 美元。作為我們對 2030 年的估值，約為目前股價的 3.3 倍，亦即上升 65% 或 203%（increase）。而這個指標有趣之處在於：今天，Howard Hughes 的價值近 80% 來自房地產業務。但我們實際上認為，未來五年將有更多價值來自 Vantage、其他保險業務，以及我們尋求收購的一些高且具持久成長性的公司。因此，該比例將轉變為約三分之二來自與房地產無關的業務。

The way that we get there at a very high level is that we will be looking at the Howard Hughes community's real estate business, and we will be using a lot of the excess cash that we do not think is needed for reinvestment in the communities that could be allocated higher returns in other parts of the business, particularly the insurance.

從高層次來看，我們達成的方式是：我們將檢視 Howard Hughes 社區的房地產業務，並運用大量我們認為不需要再投入社區再投資的超額現金，將其配置到公司其他可取得更高報酬的部分，特別是保險業務。

We have about $2.5 billion to $3 billion of cash that we're expecting we'll be able to generate over the next five years, which could be somewhere in the order of 65% to 80% of the current market cap of the company, and we believe the insurance business, particularly having Mark's help, will be a very valuable place to put that. With Vantage, which we're very excited about, given the business and given the team that's there, we believe we can improve. Returns on equity from something in the kind of low to mid-teens to something that could be in the high 10s or even better. If we can do that, we can allocate a significant portion of that two and a half to $3 billion of free cash flow over the next five years to build up the capital base. And as the returns on equity advantage improve, the multiple that the market and we would assign to advantage for being a higher return on equity business should also increase. As a reminder, we're buying this business, a headline purchase price of 1.5 times book value, but we believe by the time we close, given the accretion of the book value, it'll be about 1.4, but we think we can increase the intrinsic value of this business to something that's worth north of 2 times over the next.

我們預期在未來五年可產生約25億至30億美元的現金，這可能約相當於公司目前市值的65%至80%；我們相信保險業務，尤其在Mark的協助下，將是配置這些資金的非常有價值之處。對於我們非常振奮的Vantage，鑑於其業務與團隊，我們相信我們能夠加以改善。股東權益報酬率可從目前約低到中十幾%的水準，提升到接近20%或甚至更好。若能做到，我們就能在未來五年把這25億至30億美元自由現金流中的相當大一部分，用於擴充資本基礎。而隨著Vantage的股東權益報酬率優勢提升，市場以及我們對Vantage作為高ROE業務所賦予的估值倍數也應該會提高。提醒一下，我們收購這項業務的表面收購價格為帳面價值的1.5倍，但我們相信在交割時，考量帳面價值的增厚，約會是1.4倍；不過我們認為在未來幾年內，我們可以把這項業務的內在價值提升到超過2倍的水準。

Five years. And so that's going to be a significant reason why the value of Vantage will be growing so quickly over the next five years and will really help become the driving force of the increase in the intrinsic value of Howard Hughes' equity over time and make Vantage really the leading asset that will have in insurance a key focus of that business.

五年。因此，這將是Vantage在未來五年價值快速成長的重要原因，並將真正有助於成為推動Howard Hughes股權內在價值隨時間提升的驅動力，並使Vantage成為我們在保險領域的核心資產，讓該業務以保險為關鍵重點。

Thank you, Ryan. So I thought to introduce Mark Brandeson, and he'll be available, obviously, to answer questions.

謝謝你，Ryan。接下來我想介紹Mark Brandeson，他當然也會在場回答問題。

So we actually began a conversation. With Mark well more than actually a couple of years ago in connection with an investment that Arch made in the Pershing Square management company, so we got to know Mark a bit there, then we learned of his departure when we read about it in the press when Mark stepped down from being CEO of Arch Capital Group and in light of our plans for Howard Hughes.

其實我們開始與Mark對話，是在兩年多前，與Arch對Pershing Square管理公司的一項投資有關，因此我們在那時對Mark有些認識；之後我們在媒體上讀到Mark卸任Arch Capital Group執行長的消息，並結合我們對Howard Hughes的規劃。

A year ago, we started at least a conversation with Mark. He was still otherwise encumbered at the time, and he was trying to decide what he wanted to do with his life and thinking about all kinds of different things. We kind of kept the conversation going.

一年前，我們至少開始與Mark進一步對話。當時他仍有其他牽絆，也正在思考自己人生接下來想做什麼，考慮各種不同的事情。我們就持續保持對話。

We took a very significant step in signing an agreement to acquire Vantage, and we kept talking to Mark.

在我們簽署收購Vantage的協議、邁出非常重要的一步之後，我們也持續與Mark溝通。

And our thoughts here are, well, Brian and I, other members of the Pershing Square team have analyzed insurance companies.

我們的想法是：Brian和我，以及Pershing Square團隊的其他成員，都曾分析過保險公司。

From a perspective of an investor, either one of us is an operating has has any operating experience in the insurance industry and it's an industry where you can make a lot of money and it's an industry where you can lose a lot of money if you don't know what you're doing. And while we're buying a company with a very capable team, I think it's as important that at the Board level, we have one or more directors who really understand the industry. And Mark was by far.

但從投資人的角度來看，我們兩人都沒有在保險業的營運經驗；而這是一個如果你懂得怎麼做就能賺很多錢、但如果不懂也可能虧很多錢的產業。即使我們收購的是一家具備非常能幹團隊的公司，我認為同樣重要的是，在董事會層級，我們需要一位或多位真正了解這個產業的董事。而Mark無疑是。

Our number one choice. There really wasn't a close second in terms of, without embarrassing him, really the iconic executive of the last, I would say, a couple of decades, spent almost 25 years at Arch building one of the most profitable, most successful insurance platforms. And we just thought that experience was incredibly relevant, and we were delighted to bring.

我們的第一人選。坦白說，第二名差距很大；在不讓他尷尬的前提下，他可說是過去一、二十年最具代表性的保險業高階主管之一，在Arch任職將近25年，打造出最獲利、最成功的保險平台之一。我們認為那段經驗極其相關，因此我們非常高興能邀請。

Mark, to Howard Hughes. So maybe, Mark, you could just give a little background because not everyone knows who you are, and then we'll open it up for questions for the group.

Mark加入Howard Hughes。所以也許Mark，你可以先簡單介紹一下背景，因為不是每個人都認識你，然後我們再開放大家提問。

Well, thanks, Bill, for all the wonderful comments. I feel very honored and privileged to be part of that group. I'm very happy that we got to this landing and really looking forward to help the whole team really develop your vision, your collective vision of having a diversified platform with.

謝謝你，Bill，給了我這麼多美好的評語。能成為這個團隊的一員，我感到非常榮幸與受寵若驚。我也很高興我們走到這一步，並非常期待協助整個團隊落實你們的願景、你們共同的願景：打造一個多元化的平台，並以。

Insurance being an anchor, I think like you, I firmly believe if you do it well, you can really lead to wonderful results. And I also like the fact that you are collectively wanting to wait for it. There's a timing issue going along and it's not a quick hit and it's really, if we deliberately build it the right way, this could be a formidable and it will be a formidable business. I've been 35 years in the business. I was most recently a CGL CEO. I was one of the founding members back in 2001 after the terrible events of 9/11.

保險作為支柱；我想和你們一樣，我堅信只要做得好，就能帶來非常出色的成果。我也喜歡你們集體所展現的耐心。這裡牽涉到時機問題，並不是短期一擊即中；如果我們有意識地以正確方式打造，它可以成為一個強大的、而且將會是一個強大的事業。我在這個行業已經35年。我最近擔任CGL的執行長。我是在2001年、在9/11那場可怕事件之後的創始成員之一。

With a very similar vision that you would hear me talk about all the time, which is about underwriting excellence, being focusing on the cycle, focusing on allocating capital to the right places where it gives good returns.

當時的願景與你們現在聽我反覆談到的非常相似：承保卓越、重視保險循環、把資本配置到能帶來良好報酬的正確領域。

And really surrounding yourself with a good team, good talented individuals and focusing on underwriting expertise. The difference between a top quartile performer in insurance and the bottom quartile is. Is 20%, 30% difference, meaning the ones at the bottom are actually losing and actually going by the wayside. And we've seen many of them, Bill just alluded to that. I'm excited to join because I like the vision, like I said. I'm here to help the Board understand the business, demystify some of the things. I know it's not as easy to understand from the outside world. It could be opaque.

並且真正讓自己周圍有一支好團隊、優秀且有才華的人才，並聚焦於承保專業。保險業中，前四分位的績效表現者與後四分位之間的差距。可能是20%、30%的差異；也就是說，落在後段的那些其實是在虧損，最後會被市場淘汰。我們已經看過很多這樣的例子，Bill剛才也提到。我很興奮能加入，因為我喜歡這個願景，如我所說。我在這裡是要協助董事會理解這門生意，釐清一些事情。我知道從外部世界來看，這並不容易理解。它可能相當不透明。

Most, a lot of the investors and shareholders of Harvard Hughes have built to know perhaps expertise or exposure to insurance and I'm going to make sure or we're going to try to make sure collectively that we're bringing you along to that journey altogether.

Howard Hughes的許多投資人與股東，可能過去建立的是對保險較少的專業或接觸；我會確保——或我們會共同努力確保——在這段旅程中把大家一起帶上。

What else I'm going to bring to the table, I'm looking forward to work with everyone here, obviously, and also with Greg and his team, I've known Greg for 25 years, we were neighbors in Bermuda, so he's a great executive and the platform we've built at the right time, right after the.

另外我能帶來的價值是：我期待與在座各位合作，當然也包括與Greg及其團隊合作；我認識Greg已有25年，我們在百慕達曾是鄰居，所以他是一位很出色的高階主管。而我們在正確的時點打造了這個平台，就在。

Market turn in 2019, beautiful timing, hardly any legacy, it was highlighted in the package before and it's really hard to create that kind of platform and it did a very good job, it's both insurance and reinsurance, so it allows us to. Company to really participate across the board in as many opportunities as possible and again, being selective on the underwriting. So I'm very looking forward to help demystify, help teach the board and the investors and.

2019年市場轉折之後，時機非常漂亮，幾乎沒有歷史包袱；這在先前的資料包中也有強調。要打造這樣的平台非常困難，而他們做得非常好；它同時涵蓋保險與再保險，因此讓我們能夠。公司在各個面向參與盡可能多的機會，同時在承保上保持選擇性。所以我非常期待能協助釐清、協助教育董事會與投資人，並且。

And it's going to be a long-term play for everyone here and I've seen it before and I think the playbook is there, it's worked, I've seen it work and I think we have all the elements to make it one of the best emerging and surging insurance platform alongside with the real estate platform and whatever else Bill and Ryan will find along the way.

而且這將會是對在座各位而言的一項長期布局；我以前見過，我認為作戰手冊已經在那裡了——它行得通，我也親眼看過它奏效。我認為我們具備所有要素，能把它打造為與房地產平台以及 Bill 和 Ryan 未來一路上可能找到的其他平台並列、最出色的新興且快速崛起的保險平台之一。

To create something very unique and once in a lifetime. So I'm very excited to be here. So thanks for having me here, Bill.

去創造一個非常獨特、可能一生只有一次的事業。所以我很興奮能在這裡。所以謝謝你邀請我來，Bill。

Thank you, Mark. So with that, operator, why don't we open it for questions?

謝謝你，Mark。那麼，接下來，接線員，我們開放提問好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Anthony Paolone, JPMorgan.

(接線員指示) Anthony Paolone，摩根大通。

Great. Thanks. Good morning.

太好了。謝謝。早安。

My first question, maybe for Bill, just help me understand. I'm not that close to all the different things happening at Pershing Square and the specifics around that. So can you maybe just talk to whether anything on the capital raising side there has any direct implications back to HHH, whether mechanically you've got to buy shares or whether there's. A greater commitment or just anything we should think about there related to HHH from the activities of Pershing Square?

我的第一個問題可能是給 Bill 的，請幫我理解一下。我對 Pershing Square 正在發生的各種事情以及其中的具體細節沒有那麼熟。所以你能否談談，那邊在募資端的任何事情，是否會對 HHH 直接產生影響——例如在機制上你們是否必須買入股票，或是否有更大的承諾，或任何我們應該留意、與 Pershing Square 的活動相關、會影響 HHH 的事項？

Sure. So last week, we did two. Listing transactions, an IPO of an entity called Pershing Square USA, which is a US-listed closed-end investment company listed on your stock exchange. And we also did a direct listing in effect of the management company, some people might call it the GP of Pershing Square, the entity that receives fees from various funds that we manage.

當然。所以上週我們做了兩筆上市交易：一是名為 Pershing Square USA 的實體進行 IPO，這是一家在美國上市的封閉式投資公司，掛牌在你們的證券交易所。

As part of the IPO pitch. For Pershing Square, Inc., we pointed out that it's a bit of an unusual alternative asset management company. I think analogies would be Blackstone or KKR or others in that one were small relative to others in terms of scale, but the capital base is very unusual and that 98% of our assets are in, so to speak, permanent capital vehicles. And the three examples we gave are London-listed entity, an entity called Pershing Square Holdings.

作為 IPO 推介的一部分，針對 Pershing Square, Inc.，我們指出它是一家有點不尋常的另類資產管理公司。我想可類比的公司會是 Blackstone、KKR 或其他同類；我們在規模上相對較小，但資本基礎非常不一樣——我們 98% 的資產都在某種意義上屬於永久資本載體。我們舉了三個例子：在倫敦上市的實體 Pershing Square Holdings。

Pershing Square USA, which is this new entity we launched. And then Howard Hughes, we put in the same camp. It's not an investment company per se. It's an operating company, a C-Corp, but it's a very important, I would say, leg to a three-legged stool. So I would say the significance of that transaction is not we're not we actually can't buy more stock in Howard Hughes. We're contractually.

Pershing Square USA，也就是我們新推出的這個實體。然後是 Howard Hughes，我們也把它放在同一類。它本身並不是投資公司。它是一家營運公司、一家 C-Corp，但我會說它是「三腳凳」中非常重要的一條腿。所以我會說，這筆交易的重要性不在於——我們其實也不能再買更多 Howard Hughes 的股票。我們在合約上。

Our agreement with the Board is to stop at 47%, but I would say the importance of Howard Hughes to the Pershing Square platform was something we emphasized to a great degree as part of the IPO transaction.

我們與董事會的協議是持股上限到 47%；但我會說，在 IPO 交易過程中，我們非常強調 Howard Hughes 對 Pershing Square 平台的重要性。

And we described Pershing Square, this is a permanent holding. We intend to be a forever owner.

而且我們把 Pershing Square 描述為一項永久持有。我們打算永遠持有。

Of Howard Hughes, and our goal is to build a valuable, diversified holding company led by this insurance platform over the next, many decades. That's the idea.

Howard Hughes，而我們的目標是在接下來數十年，圍繞這個保險平台建立一家有價值、分散化的控股公司。這就是構想。

Okay, thanks for that. And then my second question is, you show just the demonstration of value and how much insurance plays a role in that. So my question is, with it being such a big driver.

好的，謝謝你的說明。那我的第二個問題是，你們展示了價值的呈現方式，以及保險在其中扮演多大的角色。所以我的問題是，既然它是這麼大的驅動因素。

Why, continue to hold things like multifamily or some of the other assets to real estate, and should we see that kind of move over to potentially add more to the insurance side over time?

為什麼還要繼續持有像多戶住宅（multifamily）或其他一些房地產資產？我們是否會看到，隨著時間推進，把這類資產轉移、以便在保險端增加更多配置的動作？

Sure. So the answer is, like, if you look at Howard Hughes over the last 15 years, we were a dedicated real estate company, and basically every dollar of cash we generated, we reinvested in real estate.

當然。答案是：如果你看 Howard Hughes 過去 15 年，我們是一家專注的房地產公司，基本上我們產生的每一美元現金，都再投資到房地產。

For example, we bought another NPC. As a result of having excess cash that we actually couldn't deploy in our existing sort of NPCs. What the transaction accomplished a year ago, it kind of widened the aperture of things that we could do. I think what we learned over time is a dedicated pure play real estate development NPC business is not one that the market assigns a high value to. Or another way to think about it, the market assigns a very high discount rate.

例如，我們又買了一個 NPC。那是因為我們有多餘現金，而這些現金其實無法在我們既有的、某種意義上的 NPC 中部署。一年前那筆交易所達成的效果，是把我們能做的事情的視野拉寬了。我想我們隨時間學到的是：一個專注、純粹的房地產開發 NPC 業務，市場不會給它很高的估值。或者換個說法，市場對那類現金流適用非常高的折現率。

To those kinds of cash flows.

對那類現金流。

All of that being said, as demonstrated by our expectations of $2.5 billion, $3 billion of cash that we're going to generate from that business over the next five years, it's a meaningful cash flow generator.

即便如此，正如我們所展示的，我們預期未來五年將從該業務產生 25 億到 30 億美元的現金，這是一個相當有意義的現金流產生器。

So I think the pivot we're making is we're going to reinvest every dollar of excess cash into things other than real estate, but our definition of excess cash is not.

所以我認為我們正在做的轉向是：我們會把每一美元的超額現金再投資到房地產以外的事情上，但我們對「超額現金」的定義並不。

Just free cash flow. And what I mean to say is, we intend to continue to build out. The golden goose here for the real estate company is that we want the Woodlands, we want Summerland, we want these communities to continue to be amazing, ranked in the top handful of places to live in America. And in order to do that, we're going to be building apartments, we need more apartment buildings, we're going to be building office buildings, we need more. Office buildings, but there are some number of assets that may be non-core that are not critical for us to own that we're going to look at and examine and say, is this, does it make sense for us to own this asset forever?

僅僅是自由現金流。我的意思是，我們打算繼續擴建。對這家房地產公司而言，這裡的「金雞母」在於：我們希望 The Woodlands、Summerland 以及這些社區能持續卓越，名列全美最宜居地點的前幾名。而為了做到這一點，我們會興建公寓，我們需要更多公寓大樓；我們會興建辦公樓，我們需要更多。辦公樓；但也有一些可能屬於非核心、並非我們必須持有的資產，我們會去檢視並評估：我們是否有必要永遠持有這項資產？

Because it's critically important to our market share in the woodlands and office space, or is it a tertiary asset that a buyer will pay a much higher price for than our cost of capital would allow. And so that's an examination that we're going to do over time.

因為它對我們在 The Woodlands 的市占率與辦公空間至關重要？還是它只是第三順位的資產，而買方願意支付的價格會遠高於我們資本成本所允許的水平？因此，這會是我們隨時間推進要做的一項檢視。

But the nature of the Howard Hughes real estate business, it's sort of self-liquidating in a matter of speaking, in that obviously we have a finite amount of land that over the next whatever number of decades we're going to sell.

但 Howard Hughes 的房地產業務本質上，某種程度上是「自我清算」的：很明顯，我們擁有有限的土地，未來不管多少個十年，我們都會逐步出售。

We have a finite amount of condominium development land, and we're going to build out those units and we're going to generate a bunch of cash. We have cash flows that come from our operating asset portfolio that we expect those cash flows to grow on the same-store basis. We expect them to grow because we're going to continue to develop whatever the communities need to make them really attractive places.

我們也有有限的公寓開發用地，我們會把那些單位建完並產生大量現金。我們還有來自營運資產組合的現金流，我們預期這些現金流在同店基礎上會成長。我們也預期它們會成長，因為我們會持續開發社區所需要的各項設施，讓它們成為真正有吸引力的地方。

But I would say on the margin, if it doesn't, if it's not critical and core, it becomes something that, if it's some stabilized asset or better owned by someone else, we'll sell it.

但我會說，就邊際而言，如果它不是、如果它不是關鍵且核心的資產，它就會變成那種——如果是某些已趨於穩定的資產，或是更適合由其他人持有的資產，我們就會把它賣掉。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Okay. Next question.

好的。下一個問題。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

Alexander Goldfarb，Piper Sandler。

Hey, good morning, Bill and David, and welcome aboard, Mark.

嗨，早安，Bill 和 David，也歡迎 Mark 加入。

Not sure if we're limited to just two questions or not, if we are fine. But just first... Want to say love the new disclosure, much more streamlined, much more to the point and I think much easier, having covered this company for a long time, much easier to comprehend, so thank you.

不確定我們是否只限問兩個問題，如果是的話也沒關係。但首先……想說我很喜歡新的揭露方式，更精簡、更切中要點；而且我長期追蹤這家公司，我覺得也更容易理解，所以謝謝。

Bill, on the Vantage deal, is there anything that could delay a second quarter closing? I don't know if any regulations, paperwork, anything like that or we're on track that this will close in the second quarter.

Bill，關於 Vantage 這筆交易，有沒有任何可能會延後第二季交割的因素？我不知道是否有任何法規、文件作業之類的，還是我們仍按計畫會在第二季完成交割。

This will close in the second quarter. We have a scheduled date, a hearing date, which is the 19th of May with the Delaware regulator. Transactions typically can close within actually a couple of weeks of that hearing date. So I think we'll beat our quarter-end estimate absent something unexpected happening, but I don't expect the unexpected here.

會在第二季完成交割。我們已排定日期、也有聽證日期，是 5 月 19 日，與德拉瓦州監管機關。交易通常其實在該聽證日期後的幾週內就能完成交割。所以我認為在沒有意外發生的情況下，我們會早於我們對季末的估計完成，但我不預期會有意外。

Second question is, I think you said the value of the company currently, as you do your math, is $104 a share.

第二個問題是，我想你說你們目前在做計算時，公司的價值是每股 104 美元。

Bill, you bought your stock into the company at $100 a share. Is that the delta versus what you guys previously disclosed of $118 a share for the company's value? I was a little surprised by the $104, but maybe it's just the math on the dilution, and also would assume you guys have better insight into the value of the company versus what we estimate from the outside?

Bill，你以每股 100 美元把資金投入公司。那這是否就是相較於你們先前揭露的公司價值每股 118 美元之間的差異？我對 104 有點意外，但也許只是稀釋的數學計算；同時也會假設你們對公司價值的洞見應該比我們外部估算更好？

I think we're number one, we're being conservative because the way we're looking at the I mean, the true value of the company, you'd build a DCF on the MPC community and you'd compound the land values over time, you discount them back at a discount rate that I believe would be lower than the way where you would appreciate them. What we're saying is, let's come up with a simple metric that's hard to argue against.

我想第一，我們採取保守作法，因為我們看待——我的意思是，公司的真實價值，你會在 MPC 社區上建立一個 DCF，並隨時間推進把土地價值複利成長，再用我認為會低於你用來讓它增值的方式的折現率把它折回來。我們要說的是：讓我們提出一個很難被反駁的簡單指標。

We're also the value of the commercial land, we're assuming a sale to a third-party. Obviously, when you sell land to a third-party, you're giving up the they build in an opportunity for a development profit and everything else. If we develop that land ourselves, we get the benefit of that development property. So this is, I think, quite a conservative way to think about the value of the company.

另外，在商業用地的價值上，我們是假設賣給第三方。顯然，當你把土地賣給第三方時，你等於放棄了——他們會把開發利潤的機會以及其他一切都納入其中。如果我們自己開發那塊土地，我們就能享有那個開發利潤的好處。所以我認為這是一種相當保守的方式來思考公司的價值。

There is obviously some dilution associated with our $100 a share primary investment. Ryan, do you want anything else?

顯然，我們以每股 100 美元進行的主要投資會帶來一些稀釋。Ryan，你還要補充什麼嗎？

Yes, the one thing I would say, Alex, we try to give a very conservative snapshot for the 104-figure. Another way to look at this, which is outside of the Howard Hughes context, when we value businesses at Pershing Square, we often think about what the business will produce over the next five years. And then when we think about that as a value, we might discount that future value back to today. So one thing you would note on Page 42, we conservatively estimate $104, but we also then roll forward that we. Believe by 2030 that value will grow to $211, which is a 16% growth rate intrinsic value over the period of time. Another way to think about that is focus on the $211, discount that back. I think we would argue that you should discount that back at a substantially lower rate than 16% given the high-quality nature and the increasing predictability and high growth of the business. That's another way to think about value. If you were to do something like that using a more modest discount rate, you could get to numbers that are easily 25%, 30% higher than that $104 figure. So to Bill's point, there's a lot of different ways to look at this, but I think that 104% would be by far the most conservative way to look, but we just wanted to lay out a very simple explanation for people as to how they could start to think about kind of the most. Conservative value for building Howard Hughes relative to the current share price.

是的，我想說的一點是，Alex，我們試著用非常保守的方式呈現 104 這個數字的快照。另一種看法是，跳脫 Howard Hughes 的脈絡，當我們在 Pershing Square 為企業估值時，我們常會思考這個企業在未來五年會產出什麼。然後當我們把那視為一個價值時，我們可能會把那個未來價值折現回今天。所以你會注意到在第 42 頁，我們保守估計是 104 美元，但我們也把它往前推進，我們相信到 2030 年該價值會成長到 211 美元，這段期間的內在價值成長率是 16%。另一種思考方式是聚焦在 211 美元，然後把它折現回來。我想我們會主張，鑑於這個業務的高品質、可預測性提高以及高成長，你應該用顯著低於 16% 的折現率來折現。這是另一種思考價值的方法。如果你用較溫和的折現率做這件事，你得到的數字很容易比 104 這個數字高出 25%、30%。所以呼應 Bill 的觀點，有很多不同的看法，但我認為 104 會是迄今最保守的看法；我們只是想為大家提供一個非常簡單的說明，讓他們知道可以如何開始思考某種最保守的 Howard Hughes 估值，相對於目前股價。

Another way to say it is I think of 104 is basically like a liquidation value of the company. It's after tax, after all the various expenses associated as opposed to a almost like a going concern type value where the expectation would be we'd be building out all the commercial land, we'd be embedding a certain profit margin. We'd be assuming that we'd be selling land at higher prices in the future and discounting it back at a much lower discount rate, and those would all accrue to a higher value, but I think this is a very.

換個說法，我認為 104 基本上就像是公司的清算價值。它是稅後、扣除所有各種相關費用之後的數字；相對於一種更像持續經營的價值，在那種情境下，預期是我們會把所有商業用地開發完成、嵌入一定的利潤率。我們會假設未來以更高的價格賣地，並用更低得多的折現率折回來，而這些都會累積成更高的價值，但我認為這是一個非常。

Fair way to think about the company and provides kind of an easy, a relatively straightforward metric for us to judge the company every quarter. It makes everyone's life easier and I think simplifying the way people think about the company and particularly the real estate assets of the company, I think will go a long way to making this a more ownable stock by a broader array of investors.

公平的方式來思考這家公司，並提供一個相對容易、相對直接的指標，讓我們每一季都能用來評估公司。這讓每個人的工作都更容易；而且我認為，簡化大家思考這家公司、特別是公司不動產資產的方式，將大幅有助於讓更廣泛的投資人更願意持有這檔股票。

That's helpful. And then just the final question for you.

這很有幫助。那最後一個問題。

Obviously, data centers are a huge topic these days. You guys have a lot of land.

顯然，資料中心近來是個非常熱門的話題。你們有很多土地。

I realize the value of Summerlin or the Houston portfolios may not make sense to add a data center to that. But when I think about West Phoenix, you have a huge amount of acreage, and it would seem like that would be potential to have sort of co-located power generation data center, et cetera. So Bill, as you look, or David, as you guys look at your land. Holdings and what is sellable for residential versus potentially if there's a bid from it to do data center or power plant combo. Is that at all an option or the view is residential is still the highest and best use? And as far as maximizing the MPC, you want to stick with the formula that you have to date versus trying something new.

我理解在 Summerlin 或休士頓的資產組合中加入資料中心，可能在價值上不一定合理。但當我想到 West Phoenix，你們有非常大量的土地面積，看起來似乎有潛力做某種共址的發電設施與資料中心等等。所以 Bill，或 David，當你們看你們的土地持有，以及哪些適合賣作住宅用地、哪些可能如果有人出價要做資料中心或電廠組合時可以考慮。這是否是一個選項？還是你們的看法是住宅仍然是最高且最佳用途？以及就最大化 MPC 而言，你們想沿用迄今的既有模式，而不是嘗試新的做法。

Yeah, I would say we have an extremely open mind with respect to West Phoenix.

是的，我會說，對於西鳳凰城（West Phoenix），我們的態度非常開放。

It's an amazing asset.

那是一項很了不起的資產。

It has all the attributes that you've talked about, access to power, access to water, in a very, I would say, pro-business kind of favorable environment, and we have enormous scale.

它具備你提到的所有特質：可取得電力、可取得水資源，而且我會說是在一個相當親商、相對有利的環境中，同時我們的規模非常龐大。

And we bring a lot of value to any one of those players. There are AI companies raising money at a trillion dollar.

而我們能為任何一位這類參與者帶來很大的價值。有些 AI 公司正在以一兆美元的估值募資。

Evaluations, in the context of that, you look at this very valuable land we own. It might be an interesting transaction to have someone not only where they want to build data centers or power, but there's some pretty aspirational people in the technology world that want to build cities and they want to build a community around the company that they're building.

在那樣的背景下，你再看我們擁有的這塊非常有價值的土地。這可能會是一筆很有意思的交易：有人不僅想在那裡興建資料中心或電力設施，而且科技圈也有一些相當有抱負的人想要打造城市，想圍繞他們正在建立的公司打造一個社區。

And we would be one great outcome for us is we bring in a partner who writes a big check and then we become an asset light, if you will, developer of whatever that community is. And we make it an ideal place to live in the way that the company has historically built communities with like, for example, the Woodlands or Summerlin.

對我們而言，一個很好的結果是：我們引進一位合作夥伴，對方開出一張大支票，然後我們就成為某種意義上的輕資產（asset light）開發商，去開發那個社區的各種內容。我們把它打造成理想的居住地，就像公司過去打造社區的方式一樣，例如 The Woodlands 或 Summerlin。

We do the same in Phoenix, but we have the anchor is.

我們在鳳凰城也做同樣的事，但我們會有一個錨定（anchor）是——

Someone for whom having access to everything from nuclear power to these small nuclear reactors and all the interesting technology, and they do it with a blank sheet of paper. I think it's a pretty good opportunity. So that's something we're totally open to and something that could be transformational in terms of value creation for the company. We're valuing that asset at cost in this.

某個對象，他們希望能取得從核能到小型核反應爐等各種資源與有趣的技術，並且能在一張白紙上從零開始規劃。我認為這是個相當不錯的機會。所以我們對此完全開放，而且這在為公司創造價值方面可能具有變革性。在這裡我們是以成本來評價那項資產。

We bought that asset, what?

我們買下那項資產是什麼時候？

Six years ago or so? Just over three years ago. Three years ago, okay, Thomas. Three years ago.

大概六年前左右？三年多前。三年前，好，Thomas。三年前。

But the world's changed, I would say. The world's moved at least six years in the last three years in terms of what that property can be used for.

但我會說，世界已經改變了。就那塊土地可用來做什麼而言，在過去三年裡，世界至少前進了六年的幅度。

Thank you, Bill.

謝謝你，Bill。

Sure. Okay, next question, please.

不客氣。好，請下一個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線生指示）

So feel free to come back for more if you have more questions.

如果你還有更多問題，歡迎再回來提問。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

John Kim，BMO Capital Markets。

Thank you. I've had some technical issues, so apologies if you've already addressed this. But on the KPIs that you introduced as far as MPC residual value and the condo remaining profits, does that essentially incentivize you to maximize price going forward and not.

謝謝。我遇到一些技術問題，所以如果你們已經談過了先說聲抱歉。不過關於你們引入的 KPI——例如 MPC 殘餘價值（residual value）以及公寓（condo）剩餘利潤——這是否本質上會激勵你們未來去最大化價格，而不是——

Sell and, in essence, not generate as much current cash flow.

出售，從而在本質上不產生那麼多當期現金流。

A goal -- I mean, maybe David can speak to our approach. We generally take an approach to optimize the combination of, I would say, volume and price and make sure that we're not stuffing -- we don't want a bunch of home builders with excess land inventory, and we don't want to.

我們的目標——我的意思是，也許 David 可以談談我們的方法。我們一般採取的做法是，去最佳化我會說的「量」與「價」的組合，並確保我們不會硬塞——我們不希望一堆建商手上有過多的土地庫存，也不希望——

And we want to manage the supply in a manner where we can continue to grow the per acre value of the asset. It's actually, again, it's not critical to us whether we sell X dollars of land in any particular quarter, what matters to us.

同時我們希望以一種能持續提升資產每英畝價值的方式來管理供給。再說一次，對我們而言，某一季賣出 X 美元的土地並不是關鍵；對我們重要的是——

Is we're building these amazing communities and we're managing our scarce asset in a thoughtful way, but David, maybe you want to speak to that.

我們正在打造這些很棒的社區，並以審慎的方式管理我們稀缺的資產；不過 David，也許你想補充一下。

I think, Bill, you summarized it perfectly, which is we're not selling assets to maximize any metric, we're selling assets to maximize the value of the company. And we do that by selling just enough land to homebuilders to keep up with underlying home sales. Sell them too much land and they're oversupplied and in a downturn they'll make a terrible decision that will negatively impact the rest of our dirt. Sell them too few and we're going to strangle affordability in our communities. So we are tracking underlying home sales in each of our communities daily. Making sure that we're preparing the right amount of lots to keep up with those home sales to maintain equilibrium as best we can across our communities.

我認為，Bill，你總結得非常到位：我們不是為了最大化任何單一指標而出售資產，我們出售資產是為了最大化公司的價值。而我們做到這點的方式，是只賣給建商「剛好足夠」的土地，以跟上基礎的住宅銷售。如果賣給他們太多土地，他們就會供給過剩；在景氣下行時，他們會做出很糟的決策，進而對我們其餘土地造成負面影響。如果賣得太少，我們又會扼殺社區的可負擔性。因此，我們每天都在追蹤各個社區的基礎住宅銷售。確保我們準備適量的地塊（lots）來跟上這些住宅銷售，盡可能在各社區維持供需均衡。

Yeah, so it said another way, simply because we're changing the KPI, that's really just to help the market better understand the company, understand our progress in creating intrinsic value, but it's really no impact on how we think about how we auction land each quarter.

是的，換個說法：我們之所以調整 KPI，主要是為了幫助市場更好理解公司、理解我們在創造內在價值（intrinsic value）方面的進展，但這對我們每季如何拍賣土地的思考方式其實沒有影響。

Okay, that makes sense. I mean, the KPIs, I mean.

好，這就說得通了。我的意思是，這些 KPI——我的意思是——

That information was already there before, but you just want us to focus more on the remaining values of your landing counterprofits.

那些資訊之前就已經存在了，但你們只是希望我們把焦點更多放在你們土地的剩餘價值與公寓剩餘利潤上。

Well, look, one of the concerns I had is that people were looking at the company and saying, I want to put a multiple on, like a next twelve-month estimate of...

嗯，你看，我其中一個擔憂是，人們在看這家公司時會說：我想對例如未來十二個月預估的……給一個倍數（multiple）。

MPC EBIT, and it's really just not the right way to think about an asset like land, which you're going to sell over time and where the land values are going to appreciate over time. The right way to think about an asset like that is either on a present value basis or, and maybe the simplest way to think about it is, okay, how much we sell during the quarter, how much cash do we take in, and what's the remaining land worth? It's a bit like, we're a bit like, we've got oil in the ground.

MPC EBIT，但那其實不是思考土地這類資產的正確方式；土地是你會隨時間出售、且土地價值會隨時間升值的資產。思考這類資產的正確方式，要嘛是以現值（present value）為基礎；或者也許最簡單的方式是：好，這一季我們賣了多少、收了多少現金、以及剩餘土地值多少？這有點像——我們有點像——地底下有石油。

And unlike oil in the ground, which is incredibly volatile, our oil gets more valuable over time as people move into the communities, but there's a finite amount of it, and we want to be smart about we're kind of like OpEx, we don't want to dump it on the market at any one time, we want to be thoughtful about how we extract it.

而且不同於地底石油那種極度波動的資產，我們的「石油」會隨著人們搬進社區而隨時間變得更有價值；但它的量是有限的，我們希望聰明地——我們有點像在管控營運支出（OpEx）一樣——不想在任何單一時間把它一口氣倒到市場上，而是希望審慎地思考如何開採它。

And how we convert it into cash overtime, but we don't want you to put a multiple on the amount of drilling that happens in any one quarter because that's really just a function of kind of sometimes it can be a function of rates, sometimes rates back up a bit and there may be a pause in sales.

以及如何隨時間把它轉換成現金；但我們不希望你們用任何單一季度的「鑽探量」去套倍數，因為那其實只是某種函數：有時可能取決於利率，有時利率回升一些，銷售可能就會暫停。

One thing's a certainty. People want to live in the woodlands. People want to live in Summerland. They want to live in our communities, which means this land, and the land just gets more desirable over time. We're at a place in the woodlands now where there's really no more residential lots. It's only commercial acreage. We'll get there at some point in Summerland as well, which means we're going to sell every acre of residential land over time in Summerland. I can't tell you exactly what date.

有一件事是確定的。人們想住在 The Woodlands。人們想住在 Summerland。他們想住在我們的社區，這表示這些土地——而且土地只會隨時間變得更受青睞。我們現在在 The Woodlands 已經到了幾乎沒有更多住宅地塊的階段。只剩商業用地的英畝數。在某個時間點，Summerland 也會走到那一步，這表示我們終將隨時間賣出 Summerland 的每一英畝住宅用地。我無法告訴你確切是哪一天。

But I'm confident that the land we sell in future years is going to be worth a lot more than land we sell today. And that's why we're never in a rush to meet. We certainly don't want management thinking about, oh, I put out a guidance number, and I want to make the number by, well, let's just discount the land a bit.

但我有信心，我們在未來幾年出售的土地，價值會遠高於我們今天出售的土地。這也是為什麼我們從來不急著去達成（目標）。我們當然不希望管理層心裡想著：喔，我給出了一個指引數字，而我想要達成這個數字，那就……乾脆把土地稍微打個折吧。

We want people to be focused on the things that matter for growing the value of the company.

我們希望大家把重心放在真正能讓公司價值成長的事情上。

So these metrics are as much for internal use as they are for external.

所以，這些指標既是給外部看的，同時也同樣是供內部使用的。

Observation.

觀察。

And when we talk about allocating more capital to advantage rather than reinvesting back into the NPCs, besides selling stabilized assets that you mentioned before, what are some of those investments that you would have made that are now either being deferred or removed going forward in the NPC business?

當我們談到把更多資本配置到 Vantage，而不是再投入回 NPC，除了你先前提到出售已穩定的資產之外，在 NPC 業務中，你們原本可能會做、但現在往後要延後或取消的投資有哪些？

I don't know that we had already arrived at a place where we had excess cash flow expected to be generated from condo sales from other parts of our business. But if we were a pure-play real estate company, we would have tried to figure out other places to put that money in real estate-related assets.

我不確定我們是否已經走到那一步：預期會從我們業務其他部分的公寓銷售中產生超額現金流。但如果我們是一家純房地產公司，我們會試著找出其他地方，把那筆錢投入到與房地產相關的資產上。

What we're doing now is we're saying, look, now we have a really good place to put that money. We think the driver of value in the slide that Ryan showed you.

我們現在做的是在說：你看，現在我們有一個非常好的地方可以把那筆錢投進去。我們認為價值的驅動因素就在 Ryan 給你們看的那張投影片裡。

Is, one, we think the nature of the insurance business, a profitable insurance operation with assets managed by us for no cost, we think is approaching 20-plus percent ROE business. Those are returns very hard to achieve in a relatively low leverage kind of real estate company. So, one, the returns are higher. Two, the business that we're buying here for effectively 1.4 times book value becomes worth something. Comfortably north two times book value if we can achieve our objectives. And so every dollar we can put in kind of Vantage appreciates both because the ROE is higher and two, the value that the market will assign to that capital that's invested in Vantage is much higher than that. So therefore, our incentive is to invest every marginal dollar in Vantage as opposed to buying another MPC.

第一，我們認為保險業務的本質——一個獲利的保險營運，加上由我們免費管理的資產——我們認為正接近一個 ROE 超過 20% 的業務。在一家槓桿相對較低的房地產公司裡，這種報酬是非常難達到的。所以，第一，報酬更高。第二，我們在這裡以約 1.4 倍帳面價值買進的這門業務，會變得更有價值。如果我們能達成目標，它的價值會穩穩地高於 2 倍帳面價值。因此，我們投入到 Vantage 的每一美元都會增值：一方面因為 ROE 更高；另一方面，市場對投入在 Vantage 的資本所賦予的估值也會高得多。所以，我們的誘因是把每一筆邊際資金都投到 Vantage，而不是再去買另一個 MPC。

If we had had this business plan three years ago, instead of buying West Phoenix, we would have put, an extra $600 million into Vantage.

如果三年前我們就有這個商業計畫，那我們就不會去買西鳳凰城，而是會額外再投入 6 億美元到 Vantage。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Bill Ackman for closing remarks, sir.

謝謝。我現在想把電話交回給 Bill Ackman 作結語，先生。

Okay, ending early.

好，提早結束。

I guess my closing remarks, look, the company is going through an important transition that we think is going to create a lot more value for shareholders over time. We're incredibly excited about it. We think we have all of the things needed to achieve that objective.

我想我的結語是：你看，公司正在經歷一個重要的轉型，我們認為這將隨著時間為股東創造更多價值。我們對此感到非常興奮。我們認為我們具備達成該目標所需的一切。

One, we've got a great core, very profitable business, and I think the team is thinking about it the right way and the numbers are great. And I would say.

第一，我們有一個很棒的核心、非常獲利的業務；我認為團隊的思考方向是對的，而且數字也很漂亮。我會說。

We have mayors around the country that are great, including in New York City, for sending people to business, communities that are pro-business and pro-capitalism, and we happen to own assets in states that are aligned with that objective. So I think Howard Hughes owns real estate assets in the right places, and we're going to generate a lot of cash from that business, and now we have a very good place to put that. Capital, Vantage transaction, I expect, will close earlier than the end of the quarter.

我們在全國各地都有很棒的市長，包括紐約市在內，他們致力於把人帶進來做生意；各地社區支持商業、支持資本主義，而我們剛好在與這個目標一致的州擁有資產。所以我認為 Howard Hughes 在正確的地方擁有房地產資產，我們將從這項業務產生大量現金，而現在我們也有一個非常好的去處來配置這些資金。我預期 Vantage 交易會在本季結束前更早完成交割。

We're excited about that. We're excited about the Vantage team.

我們對此感到興奮。我們也對 Vantage 團隊感到興奮。

I think they're excited to be part of a permanent -- it's a lot more fun and insurance business to know kind of have a long-term business, you want to have a long-term owner, and we've achieved that. I think with Mark's addition to the Board, I think the Board is now very well-positioned to help.

我想他們也很高興能成為一個永久平台的一部分——在保險業務裡，知道自己有一個長期的事業、也希望有一個長期的所有者，會更有趣，而我們已經做到這一點。我認為隨著 Mark 加入董事會，董事會現在也處於非常有利的位置來協助。

Oversee this important transformation. I think the only thing that's missing in the share price is some new shareholders who -- because I think we've scared away some of the real estate shareholders and hopefully we'll start to attract people who are excited about the business plan going forward.

監督這項重要的轉型。我認為目前股價唯一缺少的是一些新的股東——因為我想我們可能把一些房地產股東嚇跑了——希望接下來我們會開始吸引那些對未來商業計畫感到興奮的人。

And with that, absent any further questions, we'll end the call.

那麼，在沒有其他問題的情況下，我們就結束本次電話會議。

Hearing no further questions, thank you so much and have a great day.

未聽到其他問題，非常感謝，祝各位有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。