Howard Hughes Holdings Inc (HHH) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Howard Hughes second quarter 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，感謝您耐心等候。歡迎參加 Howard Hughes 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Mr. Joe Valane, General Counsel and Secretary. Please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。現在我想把會議交給今天的第一位講者，Joe Valane 先生，總法律顧問兼公司秘書。請開始。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to the Howard Hughes Holdings second quarter 2026 earnings call. With me today are Bill Ackman, Executive Chairman; Ryan Israel, Chief Investment Officer; David O'Reilly, Chief Executive Officer; Carlos Olea, Chief Financial Officer; and Marc Grandisson, Vantage Executive Chair and Howard Hughes Holdings Director.

謝謝。各位早安，歡迎參加 Howard Hughes Holdings 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：執行董事長 Bill Ackman、投資長 Ryan Israel、執行長 David O'Reilly、財務長 Carlos Olea，以及 Vantage 執行董事長兼 Howard Hughes Holdings 董事 Marc Grandisson。

Before we begin, I would like to direct you to our website, www.howardhughes.com, where you can download both our second quarter earnings press release and our supplemental package. The earnings release and supplemental package include reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures that will be discussed today in relation to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

在開始之前，我想請各位前往我們的網站 www.howardhughes.com，您可在該處下載我們的第二季財報新聞稿以及補充資料包。財報新聞稿與補充資料包包含非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表，這些指標將於今天討論，並與其最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標進行對照。

Certain statements made today that are not in the present tense or that discuss the company's expectations are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Although the company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, we can give no assurance that these expectations will be achieved.

今天所作的某些陳述若非以現在式表達，或涉及公司對未來的預期，均屬於聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。儘管公司相信此等前瞻性陳述所反映的預期係基於合理假設，我們無法保證這些預期一定能夠實現。

Please see the forward-looking statement disclaimer in our second quarter earnings press release and the risk factors in our SEC filings for factors that could cause material differences between forward-looking statements and actual results. We are not under any duty to update forward-looking statements unless required by law.

請參閱我們第二季財報新聞稿中的前瞻性陳述免責聲明，以及我們向 SEC 提交文件中的風險因素，以了解可能導致前瞻性陳述與實際結果出現重大差異的因素。除非法律要求，否則我們沒有義務更新前瞻性陳述。

I will now turn the call over to our Executive Chairman, Bill Ackman.

接下來我將把電話會議交給我們的執行董事長 Bill Ackman。

Thank you, Joe. Before we talk about the quarter, I thought in light of the significance of events over the last few months for the company, I just want to give a little background on how we got here. In May of last year, Pershing Square acquired $900 million of stock at Howard Hughes at $100 a share, increasing our ownership to 47% of the company. I became Executive Chair. Ryan became Chief Investment Officer of the company.

謝謝你，Joe。在我們談本季表現之前，鑑於過去幾個月對公司而言事件的重要性，我想先簡要說明一下我們是如何走到今天這一步的背景。去年 5 月，Pershing Square 以每股 100 美元的價格在 Howard Hughes 買入 9 億美元股票，將我們的持股比例提高至公司 47%。我出任執行董事長。Ryan 出任公司投資長。

And we said, look, our goal is to turn Howard Hughes, a kind of pure-play real estate company into a diversified holding company. And our business plan was to acquire an insurance operation to find a platform that we believed that we could build into a highly profitable and very successful company and one where Pershing Square's investment capability could add material value.

我們當時表示，我們的目標是把 Howard Hughes 這家某種程度上屬於純房地產公司，轉型為一家多元化控股公司。我們的商業計畫是收購一家保險業務，尋找一個我們相信可以打造為高度獲利且非常成功的公司的平台，並且在其中 Pershing Square 的投資能力能夠帶來實質價值。

Within about six months or so, we identified and most recently closed the transaction to acquire Vantage Holdings. We purchased the company at a fair price. It was not a bargain purchase. It was a platform that had been built over the previous five years, led by two very successful private equity firms.

大約在六個月左右，我們鎖定了目標，並在最近完成收購 Vantage Holdings 的交易。我們以合理的價格收購該公司。這並不是一筆撿便宜的收購。這是一個在過去五年建立起來的平台，由兩家非常成功的私募股權公司領導打造。

We had an opportunity to acquire it, and it fits very well with our kind of long-term ambitions. Our initial thoughts on going into the insurance business were really driven by what Warren Buffett and what Berkshire Hathaway has achieved over a very long period of time.

我們有機會收購它，而它也非常符合我們的長期抱負。我們最初對進入保險業的想法，主要是受到 Warren Buffett 以及 Berkshire Hathaway 在非常長時間內所取得成就的啟發。

And as part of that thinking, we reached out to a guy named Marc Grandisson, who we've met maybe 2.5 or almost three years ago and someone we had greatly admired in the insurance business. And we thought when we were trying to make a decision whether to acquire a company or to build one from scratch, we look to Marc for advice. Marc was sort of on the beach. He wasn't sure what he was prepared to go back into the business. He gave us excellent advice, but we went up sort of our own way in acquiring Vantage. Since the acquisition, Marc was firmly in his retirement, and we got him to join the Board of Howard Hughes.

基於這樣的思考，我們聯繫了一位名叫 Marc Grandisson 的人士；我們大約在 2.5 年、或接近三年前認識他，並且一直非常欽佩他在保險業的表現。當我們在評估究竟是收購一家公司，還是從零開始建立一家時，我們向 Marc 請益。Marc 當時算是在海邊休息。他也不確定自己是否準備好重返業界。他給了我們非常好的建議，但我們仍以自己的方式推進並收購了 Vantage。收購完成後，Marc 仍堅定地處於退休狀態，而我們邀請他加入 Howard Hughes 董事會。

And it was very clear from the first day he joined the Board meeting, his passion for the industry. So it's been a cultivation is how I would -- or a seduction, a better word, to try to get Marc a little bit more involved. And then we had a stroke of luck, which is that David Gansberg, who was kind of co-President of Arch, someone who was in line with the potential CEO role of the company was actually let go by Arch.

而且從他加入董事會會議的第一天起，就非常清楚地看出他對這個產業的熱情。因此，我會說這是一個逐步培養的過程——或者用更貼切的詞，是「說服」——希望讓 Marc 更深入參與。接著我們又遇到一個好運：David Gansberg——他曾是 Arch 的共同總裁之一，也是可能出任該公司執行長的人選——實際上被 Arch 解聘了。

He did not win the battle for CEO, but he was a favored choice of Marc, and that created really an opportunity for us where Marc was not prepared to come in and be CEO of an insurance company with effectively his right-hand guy stepping in as CEO, he was prepared to take a more significant role in the company. And with that, we announced Marc became Executive Chair of the company. David has a noncompete until June or I guess, early June of about 10 months from today.

他沒有贏得執行長之爭，但他是 Marc 偏好的選擇，這就為我們創造了一個機會：原本 Marc 不打算進來擔任保險公司的執行長；但若由他實質上的得力助手出任執行長，他就願意在公司扮演更重要的角色。因此，我們宣布 Marc 出任公司執行董事長。David 的競業禁止條款將持續到 6 月，或我想大約從今天起算約 10 個月後的 6 月初。

And we now had really our dream team in the insurance industry. And that's not to diminish in any way Greg Hendrick or anyone in the Vantage operation. But if you look at the 25-year history of Arch, where from 2001, Marc, an important younger member of the team and to all the value and learnings over that period of time to his becoming CEO and building one of the best records in the insurance industry, this was -- if you look at Pershing Square over time, our most successful investments have been finding a great business and then finding the best person in the world to run that company.

而我們現在確實擁有保險業的夢幻團隊。這並非以任何方式貶低 Greg Hendrick 或 Vantage 營運團隊的任何人。但如果你回顧 Arch 25 年的歷史，從 2001 年起 Marc 作為團隊中重要且年輕的成員，累積了那段期間的價值與學習，直到他成為執行長並打造出保險業最優秀的績效紀錄之一——這件事對我們而言是：若你觀察 Pershing Square 長期以來，我們最成功的投資往往是找到一家優秀的企業，然後再找到全世界最適合的人來經營它。

And when we've combined those two things, whether it was at Chipotle or at Canadian Pacific or other businesses, that's really when the magic happens. And we couldn't resist the opportunity to recruit David and to get Marc in place at the company. So it's a very, very material announcement.

當我們把這兩件事結合在一起——無論是在 Chipotle、Canadian Pacific 或其他企業——真正的魔法就會發生。我們無法抗拒招募 David、並讓 Marc 就位於公司的機會。因此，這是一項非常、非常重大的宣布。

The other thing that I have experienced over time, when you get someone who's run a large enterprise or, for example, someone who's managed a large investment portfolio and then you give them a much smaller operation, the magic they can achieve from that kind of base level is really remarkable. And I think the same thing really applies here.

另外一件我長期以來的體會是：當你讓一位曾經經營大型企業的人，或例如管理過大型投資組合的人，去接手一個規模小得多的業務時，他們能在這樣的基礎上創造出的成果往往非常驚人。我認為同樣的道理也適用於這裡。

We have a team -- a senior leadership team with enormous horsepower stepping into a very small, very young operation, and we're very, very excited about what can be achieved. So the market does not yet understand the significance of this announcement.

我們有一支具備極強戰力的資深領導團隊，正要進入一個非常小、非常年輕的營運體，我們對於能夠達成的成果感到非常、非常興奮。因此，市場目前尚未理解這項宣布的重要性。

Now the other important fact is now that we have, if you will, the dream team in place, we need to do everything we can to raise -- to inject more and more capital into Vantage so we can exploit the opportunity created by the team that we've built. And Vantage benefits by beginning with a highly diversified kind of portfolio of lines of business. And you'll see that expand.

現在，另一個重要事實是：既然我們已經把所謂的夢幻團隊就位，我們就必須盡一切努力為 Vantage 募集——注入更多、更多資本，以便把我們所打造的團隊所創造的機會充分發揮出來。而 Vantage 的優勢在於其起步即擁有高度多元化的業務線組合。你們將會看到這個組合持續擴大。

Marc will find other areas of opportunity expansion for the company that will allow us to deploy capital in a market which is patchy in terms of opportunity, but that's really Marc's expertise. So I have to say that we're incredibly excited about Marc and David. We're excited about the synergies created in combining with the Vantage team and what's been built over the last five years, but still at a very early stage. And that's what kind of gives me an opportunity to segue to real estate as kind of proven by this quarter.

Marc 也會為公司找到其他可擴張的機會領域，使我們能在一個機會分布不均、較為零散的市場中部署資本，而這正是 Marc 的專長。所以我必須說，我們對 Marc 和 David 感到無比興奮。我們也對與 Vantage 團隊結合所帶來的綜效、以及過去五年所建立的成果感到振奮，但目前仍處於非常早期的階段。而這也讓我有機會順勢轉到房地產業務，正如本季所展現的那樣。

This is a time where rates have risen very significantly. You read all kinds of stuff about the housing market here and there. And quarter after quarter, there continues to be enormous demand for real estate in our communities. And the reason for this is in part political. I'm unfortunately living in a city where the city is not run in a particularly pro-business fashion.

這是一個利率大幅上升的時期。你到處都會讀到各種關於房市的消息。而且一季又一季，我們社區對不動產的需求仍然非常龐大。其原因部分在於政治因素。很不幸地，我住在一個城市，而這個城市的治理方式並不是特別親商。

It's very -- taxes are high and going higher, whereas in Texas, in Las Vegas, kind of our core MPC markets, these are state, cities and communities where safe, people like to live and very conducive to business and kind of quality of life. And I think that is a great competitive advantage for us. And so we believe that our real estate assets are phenomenal assets.

那裡的情況是——稅負很高而且還在上升；相較之下，在德州、拉斯維加斯等我們核心的 MPC 市場，這些州、城市與社區治安良好、人們喜歡居住，且非常有利於商業發展與生活品質。我認為這對我們而言是很大的競爭優勢。因此我們相信，我們的不動產資產是極為出色的資產。

Now in light of the fact we're no longer a pure-play real estate company, we can take a much harder look at the portfolio and say, which are assets that are kind of strategic and critical for the long term, think landholdings kind of sort of core MPC assets and which are assets where there's a better owner who can pay -- prepared to buy the asset at a very full price.

鑑於我們不再是一家純粹的不動產公司，我們可以更嚴格地檢視投資組合並判斷：哪些資產在長期上具有策略性與關鍵性——例如土地持有、可視為核心的 MPC 資產——以及哪些資產可能有更合適的持有人，願意以非常高的價格支付——並準備買下該資產。

And the team has begun to prune the portfolio and generate cash, freeing up liquidity that can be reinvested in real estate. Now the nature of our real estate business is that it's effectively in large part, self-liquidating. You've seen significant condominium closings during the quarter, significant lot sales. Over time, we will sell all of our residential lots. We will sell all of our condominium assets. We will sell all of our noncore real estate assets.

團隊已開始修剪投資組合並創造現金流，釋放可再投資於不動產的流動性。而我們不動產業務的本質，在很大程度上實際上是「自我變現」（self-liquidating）的。你們已看到本季有大量公寓（condominium）交屋，以及大量地塊（lot）銷售。隨著時間推移，我們將出售所有住宅地塊。我們將出售所有公寓資產。我們將出售所有非核心不動產資產。

And then beyond that, we're going to look at -- historically, we sort of owned and financed 100% of everything ourselves. We're going to look at joint venture structures. We're going to look at ways to bring in capital. The Howard Hughes platform, number one, we have a phenomenal team, an incredible job building out these communities, a lot of skills honed over time in real estate development.

此外，我們也會再進一步檢視——過去我們幾乎是所有項目都由自己100%持有並自行融資。我們將研究合資（joint venture）架構。我們將尋找引入資本的方法。Howard Hughes 平台方面，第一，我們有一支非常出色的團隊，在打造這些社區方面做得極好，並在不動產開發上長期累積了大量技能。

And we have -- unlike a typical developer who's got to find a piece of land, we have decades of value. That being said, we have very high-cost capital, certainly, as the market assigns it to us. We're not a REIT. We're kind of an unusual company. So bringing in third-party capital where we're a really attractive platform and much lower cost capital will enable us to earn much higher returns on real estate assets and also free up additional significant capital.

而且我們——不同於一般開發商必須去找一塊土地——我們擁有數十年的價值。話雖如此，至少就市場對我們的評價而言，我們的資金成本非常高。我們不是 REIT。我們算是一家相當特殊的公司。因此，引入第三方資本——在我們是一個極具吸引力的平台、且資金成本更低的情況下——將使我們能在不動產資產上賺取更高的報酬，同時也釋放額外且可觀的資本。

So what you should expect to see over the next several years is the inherent self-liquidating nature of condos and lot sales, but also an acceleration in the monetization of what you think of as more stabilized type assets and maybe more partnership type opportunities for the company and maybe even we'll raise a pool of capital that management can deploy in these assets on behalf of pension funds or other investors who would love to own the kind of assets that Howard Hughes owns.

因此，未來幾年你們應該會看到：公寓與地塊銷售所帶來的內在「自我變現」特性；同時也會看到我們加速將你們所認為較為穩定型的資產變現，並可能出現更多公司層面的合作／夥伴關係機會；甚至我們可能會募集一個資金池，讓管理團隊代表退休基金或其他投資人部署於這些資產——這些投資人會很樂意持有 Howard Hughes 所擁有的這類資產。

So let's call that the backdrop of what we're trying to achieve. And the result of that will be as the insurance operation compounds its capital at ideally a high rate over time as we invest more capital in that business as the real estate business in effect, self-liquidates and/or we bring in third-party capital to reduce our capital commitment to that business, we're going to become disproportionately an insurance holding company as opposed to a real estate company with an insurance operation.

就把這稱作我們想要達成目標的背景脈絡。其結果將是：隨著保險業務的資本隨時間以理想情況下的高報酬率複利成長、我們投入更多資本到該業務；同時不動產業務實質上自我變現，且／或我們引入第三方資本以降低我們對該業務的資本承諾；我們將在公司結構上越來越偏向保險控股公司，而不是一家附帶保險業務的不動產公司。

And that's what you're going to see, and we're going to work to achieve that as rapidly as possible.

這就是你們將會看到的方向，而我們會努力以最快的速度達成。

With that, I'm going to introduce Marc Grandisson. Marc, why don't you take it away? And I think it would be very interesting to the people on the call, give us some of your first impressions arriving at Vantage, meeting the team and then maybe give us a little color on the quarter, et cetera.

接下來，我要介紹 Marc Grandisson。Marc，你來接棒如何？我想這對與會者會很有意思：請分享你到 Vantage、與團隊見面後的第一印象，然後也許再補充一些本季的情況等等。

Thank you, Bill. It's great to be here today. In my role as Executive Chairman of Vantage Risk, while it's still early days since the deal closed, I spent a fair amount of time, Bill with the Vantage Risk team, and I want to thank them all for helping me get up to speed on the business. I'm very confident that Vantage has a solid foundation to build and build out the vision that we've highlighted already. I especially want to thank Greg Hendrick, who continues to lead the team.

謝謝你，Bill。我很高興今天能在這裡。以我擔任 Vantage Risk 執行董事長的角色而言，雖然交易剛完成不久、仍在初期階段，但我已花了相當多時間與 Vantage Risk 團隊一起工作，Bill，也想感謝大家協助我快速熟悉業務。我非常有信心，Vantage 擁有穩固的基礎，可以建立並落實我們先前已強調的願景。我也特別要感謝 Greg Hendrick，他持續帶領團隊。

I want to remind that, and through this transition period until David Gansberg, our CEO designate, joins the company. As you may know, Vantage was founded in late 2020 with about $1 billion of capital. Over the next five years, the team has built a diversified specialty platform and a culture that is conducive for profitable growth and expansion. This acquisition that we just made, the incremental $300 million capital contribution and the fee-free investment management by Pershing Square open the next chapter for Vantage.

我也想提醒大家，在這段過渡期間，直到我們指定的執行長 David Gansberg 加入公司之前，都是如此。如各位所知，Vantage 成立於 2020 年底，當時資本約 10 億美元。在接下來五年，團隊建立了一個多元化的專業平台，以及有利於獲利成長與擴張的企業文化。我們剛完成的這項收購、額外 3 億美元的資本挹注，以及由 Pershing Square 提供的免管理費投資管理，為 Vantage 開啟了下一個篇章。

Permanent capital allows us to underwrite for multiyear risk-adjusted returns that should generate top-tier growth and book value. Given our current size, we have ample room to grow selectively. The Howard Hughes consolidated financial results for the second quarter include only the stub period from June 4, the date of the closing of the acquisition, through June 30.

永久資本讓我們能以多年期的風險調整後報酬為目標進行承保，進而帶來頂尖水準的成長與帳面價值提升。以我們目前的規模來看，我們仍有充足空間進行選擇性成長。Howard Hughes 第二季的合併財務結果僅包含自 6 月 4 日（收購完成日）至 6 月 30 日的短期間（stub period）。

However, everything I discussed today and the Vantage supplemental information that has been disclosed covers full second quarter and first half of the year results for Vantage on a historical GAAP basis, excluding acquisition accounting, which provides a clearer picture of the business.

不過，我今天所討論的內容，以及已揭露的 Vantage 補充資訊，涵蓋的是 Vantage 以歷史 GAAP 基礎編製的完整第二季與上半年業績，並排除收購會計（acquisition accounting）的影響，從而更清楚地呈現業務狀況。

Turning to our second quarter results. The group's combined ratio was 101.6% versus 94% a year ago. Gross and net written premium in the second quarter each rose 29% to $473 million and $325 million, respectively. Net earned premium of $295 million was up 22% year-over-year and we had $18 million of cat losses tied to the conflict in Iran and $19 million of adverse prior development largely in the discontinued transaction liabilities line, totaling a 10.2% impact on the combined ratio.

接著看我們第二季的業績。本集團的綜合成本率（combined ratio）為 101.6%，高於去年同期的 94%。第二季的毛簽單保費與淨簽單保費分別年增 29%，至 4.73 億美元與 3.25 億美元。淨已賺保費（net earned premium）為 2.95 億美元，年增 22%；此外，我們有 1,800 萬美元與伊朗衝突相關的巨災損失（cat losses），以及 1,900 萬美元的不利前期發展（adverse prior development），主要來自已停止的交易負債（discontinued transaction liabilities）項目，合計對綜合成本率造成 10.2% 的影響。

The combined ratio for the first half of the year was 96.1% and on a trailing 12-month basis, the combined ratio was 94.7%, both considerable improvements from the previous periods. Year-to-date, net income increased to $86 million, up 94%. Year-to-date underwriting income grew to $23 million, roughly double from the prior year. In the second quarter, significant levels of fee income added to these improvements and in total, more than offset the short-term volatility in the new equity portfolio.

上半年綜合成本率為 96.1%，以過去 12 個月（trailing 12-month）計算的綜合成本率為 94.7%，兩者相較前期都有顯著改善。年初至今，淨利增加至 8,600 萬美元，年增 94%。年初至今，承保利益（underwriting income）成長至 2,300 萬美元，約為去年同期的兩倍。第二季，顯著的費用收入（fee income）進一步推動這些改善，整體而言，已足以抵銷新股票投資組合的短期波動。

The first half and trailing 12-month results showed the trend toward the longer-term result that was laid out in the Howard Hughes valuation supplement that was discussed on last quarter's earnings call. While we expect reduced volatility in results over the long term as we build scale, quarter-on-quarter movements will always have some degree of variability commensurate with our book of business.

上半年與過去 12 個月的結果，顯示業績正朝向長期目標趨近；該長期目標已在上季財報電話會議中討論的 Howard Hughes 估值補充資料（valuation supplement）中闡述。雖然隨著我們擴大規模，長期而言我們預期結果波動會降低，但按季比較的變動仍會因應我們的業務組合而保有一定程度的變異性。

Importantly, the best metric to assess the underlying health of our underwriting is the current accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, which improved to 91.4% in the second quarter from 96.2% in the second quarter of last year. On a year-to-date basis, the same ratio improved to 90.9% from 94.6%, again, showing a positive trend.

重要的是，評估我們承保基本面健康狀況的最佳指標，是「當期事故年度綜合成本率（current accident year combined ratio），排除巨災」，該比率在第二季由去年同期的 96.2% 改善至 91.4%。以年初至今來看，同一比率也由 94.6% 改善至 90.9%，再次顯示正向趨勢。

Let me now highlight some of what shareholders should expect from Vantage as we look ahead. Vantage's core operating principles are right out of best-in-class performers in the property casualty insurance space. One, we're going to prioritize underwriting profit over volume with proper alignment of incentives between shareholders and management; two, we maintain a conservative reserving approach; three, we take a long-term data-driven perspective on loss expectancy and profit margin; and four, we are disciplined in our decision-making.

現在讓我強調一下，展望未來，股東可以對 Vantage 有哪些期待。Vantage 的核心營運原則，直接取法於產物與意外險（P&C）領域中一流公司的最佳實務。第一，我們將在股東與管理層激勵一致的前提下，把承保利潤置於規模之上；第二，我們維持保守的準備金提列方法；第三，我們以長期、數據驅動的視角看待預期損失與利潤率；第四，我們在決策上保持紀律。

Strategically, we will execute our vision by retaining and attracting top talent, expanding and diversifying our platform so that our ability to capture hardening pockets is nimble and fast. We'll be investing in data to improve the quality of our decisions and better serve our customers. We'll be seeking a margin of safety in pricing. We'll be managing aggregation risk conservatively, and we will be leveraging our underwriting expertise whenever possible. We know that excellent execution of this strategy by the best people will generate return on equity at or above mid-teens over the cycle.

在策略上，我們將透過留任並吸引頂尖人才、擴大並多元化我們的平台來落實願景，使我們能以靈活且快速的方式把握市場轉硬的局部機會。我們將投資於數據，以提升決策品質並更好地服務客戶。我們將在定價上尋求安全邊際。我們將以保守方式管理累積風險，並在可能的情況下運用我們的承保專業。我們知道，由最優秀的人才出色執行此策略，將在整個循環中帶來達到或高於中十位數水準的股東權益報酬率（ROE）。

Turning to current P&C market conditions. In the past, I have described the insurance cycle as having broadly four stages. As a reminder, Stage 1 is where the hard market starts, rates rise sharply, capacity withdrawals. Stage 2 is a restoration phase where further rate increases and reserve are replenished. Then Stage 3 where rates moderate or decline, while hard market profits continue to flow, allowing disciplined underwriters to still grow profitably. And finally, Stage 4, the industry abandons discipline and chases volume as rates fall further.

接著談目前的 P&C 市場狀況。過去我曾將保險循環概括為四個階段。提醒一下，第 1 階段是硬市開始：費率大幅上升、承保能力撤出。第 2 階段是修復期：費率進一步上調，準備金得到補充。接著是第 3 階段：費率趨於溫和或下滑，但硬市期間的利潤仍持續流入，使得有紀律的承保人仍能在獲利的情況下成長。最後是第 4 階段：隨著費率進一步下跌，產業放棄紀律、追逐保費規模。

Today, we are primarily in Stage 3 with casualty seemingly stalled in Stage 2 and a few property and short-tail lines already entering Stage 4. Broadly, rates are down from peak and competition has increased, but pockets of attractive returns remain as many lines still show rate level adequacy during -- despite the initial market softening.

今天，我們主要處於第 3 階段；責任險似乎停留在第 2 階段，而部分財產險與短尾業務線已開始進入第 4 階段。整體而言，費率已自高點回落、競爭加劇，但仍存在具吸引力報酬的局部機會，因為許多業務線在——儘管市場初步轉軟——仍顯示費率水準具備足夠性。

Our capital position is strong and remains well in excess of rating and regulatory requirements. As an example of the relative strength of our capital, book value ended the second quarter at $1.8 billion versus roughly $1.2 billion of trailing 12-month net written premium, a conservative low premium to surplus ratio of 0.7.

我們的資本部位強勁，且仍遠高於評級與監管要求。以資本相對強度為例，第二季末帳面價值為 18 億美元，而過去 12 個月的淨簽單保費約為 12 億美元，保費對盈餘（premium-to-surplus）比率為 0.7，屬於保守的低水準。

Accordingly, AM Best affirmed our A- rating with an upgrade to positive outlook. On the other hand, S&P's rating action reflected its group methodology, which included Howard Hughes as opposed to the stand-alone quality of Vantage for which the anchor rating remained A-. We plan to work with S&P and other rating agencies as we progress with our strategy and its benefits as they can see -- can be seen more clearly as they develop.

因此，AM Best 確認我們的 A- 評級，並將展望上調為正向。另一方面，標普（S&P）的評級行動反映其集團方法論，其中納入了 Howard Hughes，而非僅就 Vantage 的獨立品質評估；就 Vantage 而言，其錨定評級仍為 A-。隨著我們推進策略及其效益——當這些效益更清楚地顯現——我們計畫與 S&P 及其他評級機構合作。

In summary, over the next 12 months, we will deepen our underwriting expertise and data focus, expand the diversification of our product offerings and establish Vantage as a preferred home for best-in-class underwriting talent. We are in the early innings of a multiyear story.

總結而言，在未來 12 個月，我們將深化承保專業與數據導向，擴大產品供給的多元化，並將 Vantage 打造成一流承保人才的首選平台。我們正處於一個多年故事的早期階段。

The permanent capital structure is in place. Underwriting discipline is at the center of everything we do, and the platform is being built out to solidify our principles. We're focused on taking the company to the next level. I look forward to updating you on the progress in the future.

永久資本結構已就位。承保紀律是我們一切工作的核心，而平台也正在建置中，以鞏固我們的原則。我們專注於把公司帶到下一個層級。我期待未來向各位更新進展。

With that, I will turn it over to Ryan.

接下來我把時間交給 Ryan。

Thanks, Marc. As Bill talked about earlier in the call and really the thesis we've laid out since we announced our transaction with Howard Hughes a little over a year ago is that we think the insurance business is a very great and unique business that can offer the opportunity to generate incredibly high and sustained returns on equity over the long term if you do two things.

謝謝，Marc。正如 Bill 在稍早的電話會議中提到的，以及自我們在一年多前宣布與 Howard Hughes 的交易以來所闡述的核心論點：我們認為保險業是一個非常優秀且獨特的行業；如果你做到兩件事，長期而言就有機會創造極高且可持續的股東權益報酬率。

First, you optimize the liability side of your balance sheet by bringing in world-class talent to have profitable underwriting growth, which with the addition of Marc and then the incoming CEO in the future, David, we think we've accomplished.

第一，透過引進世界級人才來實現具獲利性的承保成長，以此優化資產負債表的負債端；隨著 Marc 的加入，以及未來即將上任的執行長 David，我們認為這一點已經達成。

The second is by optimizing the asset side of the balance sheet by bringing in a much higher rate of return strategy than what would typically be a fixed income-only portfolio at relatively low rates of return that's subject to a lot of interest rate risk. And that's really what we've been seeking to do on the Pershing Square side in managing this investment portfolio for Vantage.

第二，透過導入報酬率遠高於典型「僅固定收益」投資組合的策略，來優化資產負債表的資產端；傳統固定收益組合在相對較低的報酬率下，往往承擔大量利率風險。而這正是我們在 Pershing Square 端為 Vantage 管理這個投資組合時所努力實現的目標。

If you look at what's happened since we closed Vantage in early June, we have about a $3.4 billion portfolio that was entirely allocated to fixed income securities at a relatively low rate with a duration profile of three to four years, which meant there was a fair amount of longer-term interest rate risk there.

如果你看我們在 6 月初完成 Vantage 交割後的情況，我們有一個約 34 億美元的投資組合，當時完全配置於固定收益證券，收益率相對偏低，久期約 3 到 4 年，意味著存在相當程度的長端利率風險。

We moved very quickly to rebalance that portfolio to a barbell approach where we have as of the end of the quarter, which was really just a few weeks after we closed, more than 60% of the overall portfolio allocated to short-term US treasuries, where we take no duration risk, no credit risk.

我們非常迅速地將該投資組合再平衡為「槓鈴式」配置；截至季末——也就是我們完成交割後僅幾週——整體投資組合中超過 60% 配置於短期美國國債，在此我們不承擔久期風險，也不承擔信用風險。

And the goal of that portfolio is really to balance all of the reserves that we have, so there is no risk in funding those reserves into the future. And then we also had about a $1.1 billion equity portfolio that we established, which is about one third of the overall portfolio in just a few weeks. We think moving quickly to establish that was a very good strategy because interest rates -- longer-term interest rates had risen very rapidly over the ensuing months since we closed Vantage, and we've avoided what could have otherwise been some losses on that portfolio.

該投資組合的目標，是與我們持有的各項準備金相匹配，確保未來為這些準備金提供資金時不承擔風險。同時，我們也建立了一個約 11 億美元的股票投資組合，在短短幾週內就達到整體投資組合約三分之一的規模。我們認為迅速建立該配置是非常好的策略，因為在我們完成 Vantage 交割後的數月中，長端利率上升非常迅速，而我們避免了原本可能在該投資組合上出現的一些損失。

Subsequent to the quarter, though, we've continued over the last month to increase the allocation of equities. And it's now about 40% of the overall investment portfolio. And over time, we'll continue to increase that percentage as we think we have the opportunity to invest in some of the world's best businesses led by great management teams that productively use their free cash flow to create shareholder value.

不過在季後，我們在過去一個月仍持續提高股票配置比例。目前股票約占整體投資組合的 40%。隨著時間推進，我們會持續提高該比例，因為我們認為有機會投資於由優秀管理團隊領導的全球最佳企業，這些企業能有效運用自由現金流來創造股東價值。

And that barbell approach of taking no risk on the insurance liabilities, having a short-term treasury portfolio combined with buying businesses where we can achieve high rates of return can allow for a very attractive and low-risk result.

這種槓鈴式配置——在保險負債端不承擔風險、持有短期國債投資組合，同時買入我們能取得高報酬率的企業——可以帶來非常具吸引力且低風險的結果。

Now to give you a little bit of a flavor, I'll describe sort of the businesses that we buy, which are effectively we like to say, royalty-like businesses with strong secular growth opportunities. So they're what we call simple, predictable free cash flow generative businesses run by great management teams, minimal financial leverage, no capital markets dependency. It's been the approach that we've taken at Pershing Square for over two decades and has led to really good results, and we believe it will also lead to similarly positive results with Vantage in the future by continuing to do that approach.

為了讓各位更有感，我會描述一下我們所買入的企業類型；我們常說，這些本質上是「類權利金」的企業，並具備強勁的長期結構性成長機會。也就是我們所稱的：簡單、可預測、能產生自由現金流的企業，由優秀管理團隊經營，財務槓桿極低，不依賴資本市場。這是我們在 Pershing Square 採行超過二十年的方法，帶來了非常好的成果；我們相信，持續採用同樣的方法，也將在未來為 Vantage 帶來類似的正面成果。

We're going to have our Pershing Square, our publicly traded asset manager earnings call next Thursday, which we'd encourage you to listen to. And at that point, we will be describing some of the new investments that we've made, which are applicable to the Vantage portfolio as well as providing an update on the existing investments that we've had in the portfolio.

我們下週四將舉行 Pershing Square（我們的上市資產管理公司）財報電話會議，鼓勵各位收聽。屆時我們將介紹一些新投資，這些投資同樣適用於 Vantage 的投資組合，並就投資組合中既有投資提供最新進展。

But at a high level, the way to think about it before we get into those details next week is we will have a dozen to 15 different investments that we believe are ones that we could hold for long rates, long periods of time that will generate high rates of return based on their structural competitive positions, management teams and strong levels of earnings growth.

不過在我們下週深入細節之前，先從高層次來看：我們將持有約 12 到 15 項不同的投資；我們相信這些投資可以長期持有，並基於其結構性的競爭地位、管理團隊以及強勁的獲利成長，創造高報酬率。

Before I close on the portfolio, I just acknowledge one thing, which is as we were establishing the portfolio through June to the end of the quarter, that's over a period of time due to some broader market weakness, the portfolio on the stocks is down about 3%. It's already in the last month, recovered and is up between 4% and 5%.

在我結束對投資組合的說明之前，我先補充一點：當我們在6月一路建立投資組合直到季末的這段期間，因為整體市場走弱，股票投資組合下跌了約3%。而在最近一個月已經回升，目前上漲約4%到5%。

And while we're not focused on the short-term results of the equity portfolio, I do think it's just interesting to point out that the amount that we've made in the equity portfolio in just a couple of months has already exceeded what we would have expected a fixed income-only portfolio to burn for the entire year. So I think we're off to a very good start, and we'll continue reshaping that portfolio over time.

雖然我們並不著眼於股權投資組合的短期表現，但我認為值得一提的是：我們在短短幾個月內於股權投資組合所賺取的金額，已經超過我們原本預期「僅配置固定收益」的投資組合在整個年度可能消耗的金額。因此我認為我們開局非常好，並且會隨時間持續調整該投資組合。

And with that, I'll turn it over to David to talk about the real estate business.

接下來我把時間交給David，請他談談房地產業務。

Thank you so much, Ryan. After listening to Bill and Marc and Ryan, I think it's clear one of the reasons Vantage is such a great fit for Howard Hughes is that both businesses reward patience, discipline and thoughtful capital allocation, completely different industries, but we share many of the same economic characteristics. And that mindset has guided our real estate business for over a decade and continues to be reflected in the results we delivered this quarter.

非常感謝你，Ryan。聽完Bill、Marc和Ryan的分享後，我想很清楚的一點是：Vantage之所以非常適合Howard Hughes，其中一個原因在於兩個業務都獎勵耐心、紀律與審慎的資本配置；雖然產業完全不同，但我們共享許多相同的經濟特性。而這樣的思維已引導我們的房地產業務超過十年，並且持續反映在我們本季交出的成果之中。

As I walk through the results this morning, now that the supplemental has been out for over a quarter, I'm going to spend less time going through the numbers of the supplemental and more time discussing what they tell us about the business and why they matter to shareholders. The headline from the quarter is simple. Our real estate platform is doing exactly what we designed it to do. Our master planned communities continue to monetize scarce land at attractive values.

今天早上我在說明業績時，鑑於補充資料（supplemental）已發布超過一季，我會少花時間逐項走過補充資料的數字，而把更多時間用來討論這些數字對業務的意涵，以及為何對股東重要。本季的重點很簡單。我們的房地產平台正在完全按照我們設計的方式運作。我們的總體規劃社區（MPC）持續以具吸引力的價值將稀缺土地變現。

Our operating assets continue to grow recurring cash flow. Our condominium platform converted years of development work into substantial cash proceeds. And together, those businesses generated the capital and financial flexibility that helped fund the most important strategic transaction in our company's history. Those aren't isolated accomplishments are all connected parts of the capital allocation system. Starting with our masterplanned communities.

我們的營運資產持續成長經常性現金流。我們的公寓（condominium）平台把多年開發工作的成果轉化為可觀的現金回收。而這些業務合在一起，創造了資本與財務彈性，協助我們完成公司史上最重要的策略性交易。這些並非各自獨立的成就，而是資本配置系統中彼此連結的組成部分。先從我們的總體規劃社區開始。

MPC earnings before taxes increased 32% year-over-year to $134.7 million, driven primarily by strong residential and commercial land sales. More importantly, demand remained healthy across the portfolio. New home sales increased 12%, including 34% at the Woodlands Hills, 17% at Bridgeland and continued growth in Summerlin.

MPC稅前盈餘年增32%至1.347億美元，主要受惠於強勁的住宅與商業土地銷售。更重要的是，整體投資組合的需求仍然健康。新屋銷售量成長12%，其中Woodlands Hills成長34%、Bridgeland成長17%，Summerlin也持續成長。

The number I think investors should focus on isn't simply quarterly earnings. It's a combination of pricing power and demand. We continue to convert entitled developer-ready land into cash at increasingly attractive values while maintaining strong demand from homebuilders.

我認為投資人應該關注的數字不只是單季獲利。而是定價能力與需求的組合。我們持續把已取得許可、可供開發商立即開發的土地轉換為現金，且成交價值愈來愈具吸引力，同時仍維持來自建商的強勁需求。

We've often said that we're not selling land, we are harvesting scarcity, and this quarter is another example of that principle. Every acre we develop leaves fewer remaining. Every new neighborhood enhances the value of the next one.

我們常說，我們賣的不是土地，而是在收割稀缺性；本季再次印證了這個原則。我們每開發一英畝，剩餘可開發的就更少。每一個新社區都會提升下一個社區的價值。

Over time, price becomes a much more important driver of value than volume. That's why we encourage investors not to judge this business by any single quarter. Land sales are going to be lumpy. Instead, look at the long-term trajectory of pricing, demand and earnings. Those indicators continue to move in the right direction.

長期來看，價格對價值的驅動會比量更重要。這也是為什麼我們鼓勵投資人不要用任何單一季度來評斷這項業務。土地銷售會呈現波動。相反地，請看定價、需求與獲利的長期走勢。這些指標仍持續朝正確方向前進。

Our remaining wholly owned land bank represents approximately $5.6 billion of projected margin effective residual value, excluding the substantial future opportunity embedded in Teravalis and Floreo. That land represents decades of future capital generation. Turning to operating assets. NOI continued to grow during the quarter as leasing momentum remained healthy across the portfolio.

我們剩餘的全資土地儲備，代表約56億美元的預估毛利有效剩餘價值（effective residual value），尚未包含Teravalis與Floreo所蘊含的可觀未來機會。這些土地代表未來數十年的資本創造能力。接著談營運資產。本季NOI持續成長，因為整體投資組合的租賃動能仍然健康。

While adjusted maintenance free cash flow declined modestly during the quarter because we invested in leasing activity and incurred higher interest expense, I actually view those investments as encouraging. We're deploying capital today to increase occupancy and strengthen future recurring cash flow. I think the more important point is what this business has become inside of Howard Hughes.

雖然本季調整後的維護後自由現金流（adjusted maintenance free cash flow）小幅下滑，原因是我們加大租賃活動投資並承擔較高的利息費用，但我其實認為這些投資令人鼓舞。我們正在投入資本，以提升入住率並強化未來的經常性現金流。我認為更重要的一點是，這項業務在Howard Hughes內部已經成為什麼樣子。

Operating assets are no longer simply stabilized real estate. They're generating recurring cash flow while creating additional opportunities to unlock and redeploy capital. They provide predictable cash generation, gives us flexibility during market cycles, supports new investment opportunities and reduces our dependence on capital markets.

營運資產不再只是穩定型不動產。它們在創造經常性現金流的同時，也帶來更多釋放並重新部署資本的機會。它們提供可預期的現金產生能力，使我們在市場循環中更具彈性，支持新的投資機會，並降低我們對資本市場的依賴。

We also demonstrated our commitment to disciplined capital recycling. We sold Creekside Park and Creekside Park The Grove, generating approximately $30 million of net proceeds after debt repayment, while achieving approximately a 30% project level IRR over the life of those investments.

我們也展現了對嚴謹資本回收（capital recycling）的承諾。我們出售了Creekside Park與Creekside Park The Grove，在償還債務後產生約3,000萬美元的淨收益，同時在這些投資的整個持有期間達成約30%的專案層級IRR。

Those transactions also illustrate how we think about our real estate portfolio going forward. And as Bill mentioned, while we maintain and want to remain committed to the long-term oversight of our master planned communities, we've significantly expanded our toolkit for creating shareholder value.

這些交易也說明了我們未來如何看待房地產投資組合。正如Bill提到的，雖然我們仍維持並希望持續承諾對總體規劃社區的長期監督，但我們已大幅擴充創造股東價值的工具箱。

As assets mature, we'll continually evaluate whether our shareholders are best served by continuing to own them outright or pursuing alternative structures, including selective asset sales, joint ventures, recapitalizations or other strategic transactions, all of which that could unlock embedded value while preserving the long-term advantages of our platform.

隨著資產成熟，我們會持續評估：對股東而言，最佳選擇是繼續完全持有，或採取其他替代結構，包括選擇性資產出售、合資、資本重整（recapitalizations）或其他策略性交易；上述作法都可能在保留我們平台長期優勢的同時，釋放內含價值。

The objective isn't monetization for its own sake, it's disciplined capital allocation. If we can realize the value we've created in a low-return asset and redeploy that capital into opportunities with higher expected returns, whether that's expanding Vantage or advancing transformational developments like the Toro District, we believe that's a better outcome for our shareholders.

目標不是為了變現而變現，而是嚴謹的資本配置。如果我們能在一項低報酬資產上實現已創造的價值，並把資本重新部署到預期報酬更高的機會上——無論是擴大Vantage，或推進像Toro District這類具轉型意義的開發——我們相信這對股東是更好的結果。

Our holding company structure gives us greater flexibility to make those decisions than ever before while remaining committed to the principles that have made Howard Hughes successful for decades. When we believe capital can earn a higher return elsewhere, we'll recycle it. And that discipline is just as important as developing great assets.

我們的控股公司架構，讓我們在做出這些決策時比以往更具彈性，同時仍堅守讓Howard Hughes數十年來成功的原則。當我們認為資本在其他地方可以賺取更高報酬時，我們就會回收再投入。而這份紀律與打造優質資產同樣重要。

Turning to condos. They delivered exactly what we expected. The completion of the Park Ward Village generated meaningful cash flow of about $227 million of net proceeds after repayment of the construction loan.

接著談公寓（condos）。它們的表現完全符合我們的預期。Park Ward Village完工後帶來顯著現金流，在償還建築貸款後的淨收益約2.27億美元。

Those proceeds are the result of work that began years ago because our projects are substantially presold before construction is complete, the accounting appears lumpy while the economics are remarkably predictable.

這些收益來自多年前就開始的工作；由於我們的專案在完工前就已大幅預售，會計認列看起來較為不均，但其經濟實質卻相當可預測。

I often describe our condominium platform as self-financing. We contribute irreplaceable land. Buyer deposits and nonrecourse construction financing fund the majority of the development. We largely lock in our margins years before delivery. And today, we have more than $4 billion of future expected condominium revenue with roughly 78% already under contract. That pipeline provides excellent visibility into future cash generation while maintaining a conservative risk profile.

我常把我們的公寓平台形容為自我融資（self-financing）。我們投入不可取代的土地。買方訂金與無追索權的建築融資為大部分開發提供資金。我們在交付前多年就大致鎖定利潤率。而目前，我們未來預期的公寓收入超過40億美元，其中約78%已簽約。這條管線在維持保守風險輪廓的同時，也為未來現金產生提供極佳能見度。

Finally, on our balance sheet, following the close of the Vantage acquisition, we continue to maintain significant liquidity, modest corporate leverage and substantial capacity to fund future growth. That financial flexibility matters because it allows us to continue investing through market cycles while maintaining discipline around capital allocation.

最後談資產負債表：在完成Vantage收購後，我們仍維持充足流動性、適度的公司層級槓桿，以及支持未來成長的可觀資金能力。這種財務彈性之所以重要，是因為它讓我們能在市場循環中持續投資，同時維持資本配置的紀律。

Look, taking a step back to wrap it up, I think the broader takeaways from the quarter are these. The communities are demonstrating pricing power. The operating assets are growing recurring cash flow. Our condominium platform continues to recycle capital. And together, those businesses generated the strength that enabled Howard Hughes to successfully begin its next chapter as a diversified holding company.

回過頭來做個總結，我認為本季更宏觀的重點是：社區展現了定價能力。營運資產正在成長經常性現金流。我們的公寓平台持續回收並再部署資本。而這些業務合在一起，形成了讓Howard Hughes得以成功開啟下一篇章、成為多元化控股公司的實力基礎。

Our real estate platform continues to create intrinsic value, generate capital and provide the foundation for which we're going to build Howard Hughes for decades to come.

我們的房地產平台持續創造內在價值、產生資本，並為我們在未來數十年打造 Howard Hughes 奠定基礎。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Bill for any remarks before Q&A.

接下來我把時間交還給 Bill，看看在問答之前他是否還有任何補充。

I think we should just go to Q&A. So, operator, why don't you go ahead and give us some questions.

我想我們就直接進入問答。那麼，接線生，請開始讓大家提問。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線生指示)

Anthony Paolone, JPMorgan.

JPMorgan 的 Anthony Paolone。

It's Danielle Dear (inaudible) on Anthony Palone's line here. Maybe for Bill, Pershing Square stepped up with $1 billion of preferred equity on Vantage. So how should we think about the financial capacity of Howard Hughes right now beyond what the balance sheet allows? And is there more support from Pershing Square that can be garnered to make other acquisitions?

我是 Danielle Dear（聽不清）在 Anthony Palone 的線上。也許這題給 Bill：Pershing Square 針對 Vantage 追加了 10 億美元的優先股權資本。因此，除了資產負債表所允許的範圍之外，我們應該如何看待 Howard Hughes 目前的財務承載能力？另外，是否還能爭取 Pershing Square 提供更多支持，以進行其他收購？

Yes. Well, Pershing Square is obviously very much committed to Howard Hughes. We think the $1 billion of incremental capital is, I would say, what is needed for the company to execute on its plan. We think within the existing kind of resources, asset base of the real estate operation, as I mentioned in my commentary, and as David alluded to as well, we have a lot of -- one of the great things about real estate is they're all different kinds of investors with different risk and return kind of thresholds.

是的。嗯，Pershing Square 顯然對 Howard Hughes 有非常強的承諾。我們認為這 10 億美元的增量資本，我會說，是公司執行其計畫所需要的資金。我們認為，在既有資源與房地產營運的資產基礎之內，正如我在評論中提到的、David 也有所提及，還有很多——房地產的一大優點是，市場上有各種不同的投資人，具有不同的風險與報酬門檻。

Howard Hughes is a very experienced team and an incredible platform, and we've not historically looked to monetize joint venture, partner, raise funds, things like this. I expect any incremental capital that comes to Howard Hughes will come from just the existing assets, but most likely in bringing in outside partners, raising third-party capital, that kind of thing.

Howard Hughes 擁有非常有經驗的團隊與卓越的平台，而我們過去並未著重於透過合資、引入合作夥伴、募資等方式來變現。我預期，任何進一步進入 Howard Hughes 的增量資本，將會主要來自既有資產，最可能的方式是引入外部合作夥伴、募集第三方資本之類。

And I would just add, that is on top of the $2.5 billion to $3 billion that we've talked about that the company should naturally be generating is excess free cash flow over the next five years. So to Bill's point, we have, over time, more than sufficient capital to be able to meet all of our objectives, both for the real estate business and for a very quickly growing Vantage portfolio. But we also have opportunities in the shorter term to be able to supplement that in a very quick way based upon opportunistically monetizing real estate as well.

我再補充一點：這還是在我們談到的、公司在未來五年自然應可產生的 25 億至 30 億美元超額自由現金流之上。所以呼應 Bill 的觀點，隨著時間推進，我們擁有遠超過足夠的資本來達成所有目標，無論是房地產業務，或是成長非常快速的 Vantage 投資組合。但在較短期內，我們也有機會透過把握時機變現房地產，以非常快速的方式補充資本。

Yes. Don't be misled by our $4 billion market cap and thinking about the actual underlying resources of the company. The market cap only reflects an underappreciation of the intrinsic value of the company. It doesn't reflect the capital resources of the business.

是的。不要被我們 40 億美元的市值所誤導，並以此來推估公司實際的底層資源。市值只反映市場對公司內在價值的低估。它並不反映企業的資本資源。

That's helpful. And then I have my second question. I know it's a smaller piece, but it looked like Park Ward Village outperformed the original guidance you guys gave back in 4Q. What drove that? It was pretty much presold. And is there anything we should be expecting from the condo business in the second half?

這很有幫助。接著是我的第二個問題。我知道這只是較小的一塊，但看起來 Park Ward Village 的表現優於你們在第四季財報時給的原始指引。是什麼因素帶動的？它幾乎都已預售。另外，下半年在公寓（condo）業務方面，我們還應該期待什麼嗎？

Happy to take that question. This is David. I think it performed exactly as we expected. I think with the amount of presales that we had, the amount of net proceeds that came was very consistent with our expectations. There's typically a handful of things that come in at closing that could round the number up a little bit like the sale of storage or upgrade to units, but those are typically minor. I would tell you that this is pretty consistent with our expectations. And if anything, we're thrilled to see it all closed within one quarter in one fell swoop.

我很樂意回答。我是 David。我認為它的表現完全符合我們的預期。以我們的預售量來看，實際收到的淨收益與我們的預期非常一致。通常在交屋時會有少數項目讓數字略微上調，例如儲藏室的銷售或戶內升級，但通常影響不大。我會說這與我們的預期相當一致。如果要說的話，我們很高興看到它在單一季度內一次性全部完成交割。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

Piper Sandler 的 Alexander Goldfarb。

Congrats to everyone on getting the Vantage and everything closed. A few questions here. First, I'm going to go to David. The beauty of Howard Hughes, and I know we've had this discussion before, but the beauty of Howard Hughes versus when it was owned by prior companies is the holistic approach, the value that's created by not allowing competitors to come on to your MPCs and be bidding against you, whether it's on a shopping center, office, et cetera. So as you guys refine the monetization approach, are you thinking about having competitors come on? Or how do you figure out -- I know you sold some peripheral apartments, but how do you figure out which parts of Howard Hughes now you want to monetize versus previous?

恭喜大家把 Vantage 以及所有事項都順利完成交割。我這邊有幾個問題。第一個我想問 David。Howard Hughes 的優勢——我知道我們之前討論過——相較於過去由其他公司持有時，優勢在於整體性的做法：透過不讓競爭對手進入你們的 MPC（總體規劃社區）並與你們競標（不論是購物中心、辦公室等），從而創造價值。所以當你們在精煉變現策略時，是否會考慮讓競爭對手進來？或者你們如何判斷——我知道你們賣了一些邊緣地帶的公寓——現在 Howard Hughes 哪些部分要變現、相較於以前有哪些不同？

It's a great question, Alex. I appreciate you asking. Look, I don't think the strategy has changed. And for the assets that we believe we have a competitive advantage by having a disproportionate amount of ownership or market share within our communities, we're going to continue to own those. And when I say own, I don't necessarily mean we have to own 100%.

這是個很好的問題，Alex。謝謝你提出。你看，我不認為策略有改變。對於我們相信在社區內擁有不成比例的持有比例或市占、因而具備競爭優勢的資產，我們會繼續持有。而我說的持有，不一定代表我們必須 100% 持有。

I think there are ways, as Bill talked about and I talked about through joint ventures and different monetization strategies where we can still own, manage and control the destiny that creates that competitive advantage without having 100% ownership of every asset. And then there are those assets that are on the periphery, on the edge that are assets that don't give us a competitive advantage. And for those, we're always looking to monetize at the right time when prices are appropriate.

我認為有一些方式——正如 Bill 與我提到的——透過合資與不同的變現策略，我們仍然可以在不必對每項資產都 100% 持有的情況下，持有、管理並掌控其發展方向，從而創造那種競爭優勢。然後也有一些位於邊緣、較外圍的資產，這些資產並不會帶給我們競爭優勢。對於那些資產，我們一直在尋找於合適時點、在價格適當時進行變現。

Okay. And then, Ryan, I appreciate the update on the book, and congrats to you guys for moving quickly before rates move too much. But can you just recap -- you mentioned a lot of moving pieces. It sounds now like the investment portfolio is 40% treasuries. It sounded like 60% equities, but then you also mentioned businesses, which I didn't know if that meant stock positions that are royalty companies or if you're investing privately in royalty companies.

好的。另外，Ryan，謝謝你更新投資組合的狀況，也恭喜你們在利率還沒大幅變動前就快速行動。但你能否再回顧一下——你提到很多變動因素。現在聽起來投資組合有 40% 是美國公債。聽起來 60% 是股票，但你也提到「企業」，我不確定那是指持有具權利金特性的公司股票部位，還是你們以私募方式投資權利金公司。

Sure. Yes. And let me clarify. It's a good question. So what I was saying is at the end of the quarter, we had about one third of the overall portfolio in marketable securities or common stocks. We have increased that subsequently over effectively the last 5 weeks to about 40% -- we are not investing and have not invested in private companies. This is just common stock.

當然可以。是的。我來釐清一下。這是個好問題。我剛才的意思是，在季度末，我們大約有三分之一的整體投資組合配置在可交易證券或普通股。在之後大約 5 週的時間裡，我們已把這個比例提高到約 40%——我們沒有、也未曾投資私營公司。這裡指的都只是普通股。

What I was trying to describe were some of the characteristics of the businesses that we're looking for, which are some of the world's best businesses where they have great management teams, royalty like in their nature, strong secular growth opportunities. Effectively, businesses where we believe over the coming many years or decades can compound their earnings at very high rates of return.

我想描述的是我們在尋找的企業所具備的一些特徵：也就是世界上最優秀的一些企業，擁有很強的管理團隊，商業模式本質上類似權利金（royalty-like），並具備強勁的長期結構性成長機會。本質上，就是我們相信在未來很多年或數十年能以很高的報酬率持續複利成長其盈餘的企業。

And over time, by doing so, we believe the investment returns will be very similar to these high-growth earnings per share businesses that we own. Best part about it is we don't need to negotiate private transactions because the public markets, particularly at this moment, it's our view, are giving us an opportunity to buy some wonderful businesses at discounted prices.

而隨著時間推進，透過這樣做，我們相信投資報酬將會非常接近我們所持有的這些高成長每股盈餘（EPS）企業。最棒的是，我們不需要去談判私募交易，因為我們認為公開市場——尤其是在此刻——正提供我們以折價買進一些優質企業的機會。

And Ryan, why don't you just speak to at almost like stabilization, what should the portfolio look like in terms of percentage? By the way, we have no plans to invest in private assets in Vantage. So again -- and these are the most liquid large cap companies in the world. And again, next week, we'll go into some detail.

Ryan，你能不能就「幾乎像是穩定化」的角度談一下，投資組合在百分比配置上應該長什麼樣子？順帶一提，我們沒有計畫在 Vantage 投資私募資產。所以再說一次——這些都是全球最具流動性的超大型股公司。同樣地，下週我們會再深入一些細節。

You can look at the existing Pershing Square portfolio, the names that have, I would say, most of the names that you've read about publicly, we own the portfolio. We've got an additional group of names that we'll talk about next week. What should be the ultimate plus or minus mix treasuries versus.

你可以看看現有的 Pershing Square 投資組合，那些我會說大多數你在公開資訊上讀到的名稱，我們都持有在投資組合裡。我們還有一組額外的標的名稱，下週會談。最終在美國公債與……之間的正負（上下）配置比例應該是多少。

Yes. And so the way to think about it at a very high level is we want to make sure that our float, or sort of the insurance reserves, the net insurance reserves are backed by short-dated US treasuries. So there's no duration, no credit risk on that, plus a cushion. The balance of that is going to be common stocks over time. Our view is that we can ultimately get to somewhere north of 50%. We're still evaluating 90% of the overall investment -- invested portfolio in common stocks.

是的。所以從非常高層次來看，我們的思考方式是：我們希望確保我們的 float（浮存金），或說保險準備金——淨保險準備金——是由短天期美國公債來支撐。因此那部分沒有久期風險、沒有信用風險，並且再加上一個緩衝。其餘的部分，隨時間推移，將會配置在普通股上。我們的看法是，最終可以達到 50% 以上。我們仍在評估整體投資——已投資的投資組合中有 90% 投在普通股。

And it could be a little bit higher than that based exactly on what how much float is generated. So the way to think about it is it looks like we're already getting pretty close to those targets after having moved relatively quickly, but we'll continue to evaluate to see what the right amount is over time. But the way to think about it is at least 50% of the overall invested assets should be going to common stocks over time, and it could be a little bit higher than that based upon the particulars of how much float is being generated.

而且依據實際產生多少 float（浮存金），比例可能會略高一些。所以可以這樣理解：在相對快速地調整之後，我們看起來已經相當接近這些目標，但我們會持續評估，看看長期而言適當的比例是多少。但基本上，至少 50% 的整體已投資資產，隨時間推移應該會配置到普通股；而依據浮存金產生的具體情況，比例也可能略高一些。

And so to be clear, I think, Bill, you said previously like Vantage was like thousands of positions. So you've effectively gone through the entire Vantage portfolio and converted all those thousands of CUSIPs to treasuries.

所以確認一下，Bill，我記得你之前說過 Vantage 原本像是有數千個持倉部位。所以你們等於把整個 Vantage 投資組合都過了一遍，把那數千個 CUSIP 全部轉成美國公債。

Sure. It was externally managed portfolio by, I think, BlackRock and Goldman Sachs. We liquidated the portfolio very quickly. I think there was a small residual maybe 7% of the assets that we had not sold by the end of the quarter with an expectation, you should expect that those will likely be gone over time. So it's effective -- it's a very, very simple portfolio, 100% treasuries, short-term treasuries for the float plus a cushion and the balance in large cap, very high-quality common stocks.

是的。那是一個外部管理的投資組合，我想是由 BlackRock 和 Goldman Sachs 管理。我們非常快速地把投資組合清算掉了。我記得到季末時，可能還有一小部分殘餘，大概 7% 的資產尚未賣出；你可以預期，這些很可能會隨時間推移而出清。所以實際上——這是一個非常、非常簡單的投資組合：float（浮存金）加上緩衝的部分 100% 配置在短期美國公債，其餘則配置在大型股、非常高品質的普通股。

Okay. And then I appreciate -- just one final question. Ryan, I think one of the things and obviously coming from a real estate guy talking about insurance, a little dangerous. But I think what you've said -- what you guys have said before is, in general, insurance companies do not need to liquidate their investment books to pay out on claims. But the point is that you guys want to maintain sort of that 50% treasury cushion to allow for any excessive claims. Is that correct? Or do you envision that you would actually have to dip into --

好的。然後我想再問最後一個問題。Ryan，我想其中一點——而且顯然由一個做不動產的人來談保險，有點危險。但我想你——你們之前說過，一般而言，保險公司不需要為了支付理賠而清算其投資部位。但重點是，你們希望維持大約 50% 的公債緩衝，以因應任何超額理賠。這樣理解正確嗎？還是你們設想實際上會需要動用到--

Think of the treasury portfolio as cash that we have available to pay claims as they come due. We do expect claims, okay? The treasury book is effectively -- is cash available to pay claims as they come due. What many insurance companies do is they kind of ladder out their fixed income maturities to kind of duration match with how they expect claims to come in.

把公債投資組合想成我們可用來支付到期理賠的現金。我們確實預期會有理賠，好嗎？公債部位本質上——就是可用來在理賠到期時支付的現金。許多保險公司會把固定收益的到期日做成梯形配置（ladder），以便在久期上與他們預期理賠流入的時間相匹配。

And that's -- so they go -- they take more risk, if you will, on the fixed income term structure to get more yield, and they're able to do that because of the nature of insurance company flow business. We're really not taking advantage of duration of float at all. We're taking the most conservative approach, which is to put aside a 100% US treasury portfolio to meet any claims as they come in, plus a cushion. And then on top of that, we own large cap common stocks. We would not expect to be forced to liquidate a common stock portfolio to meet a claim because we have a margin of safety in the US treasury portfolio we hold.

而那樣做——也就是說，他們會在固定收益期限結構上承擔更多風險，以取得更高的收益率；他們之所以能這麼做，是因為保險公司的業務現金流特性。我們其實完全沒有利用 float（浮存金）的久期。我們採取最保守的作法，也就是預留一個 100% 的美國公債投資組合來因應任何進來的理賠，並且再加上一個緩衝。在此之上，我們再持有大型股普通股。我們不預期會被迫為了支付理賠而清算普通股投資組合，因為我們持有的美國公債投資組合提供了安全邊際。

Meyer Shields, Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

Meyer Shields，Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods。

I guess a couple of questions for Marc, if I can. First, very basically, are the -- is the expected return from the equity component of the investment portfolio, does that factor into the underwriting margin targets in your long-term ROE goal?

如果可以的話，我有幾個問題想問 Marc。第一個很基本：投資組合中權益（股票）部分的預期報酬，是否會納入你們長期 ROE 目標中的承保利潤率目標考量？

No, it doesn't.

不會。

Okay. Second, I guess on the cycle, you talked about how we're in Phase II. I completely get that. But it does seem like it's much more abrupt than it has been in the past, maybe because of MGAs or access to third-party capital or whatever. Does that impact near-term planning?

好的。第二個問題，關於循環，你提到我們正處於第二階段（Phase II）。我完全理解。但看起來這次比過去更為突然，可能是因為 MGA、第三方資本的取得管道或其他因素。這會影響你們的短期規劃嗎？

Near term, what, Meyer? Please repeat. Near-term, what?

短期的什麼，Meyer？請再說一次。短期的什麼？

Near-term planning in terms of just building the business.

短期規劃，就只是指在建立業務方面。

I mean not really. I think the -- I go back to what I said in my remarks, I think that we're undersized for what we can in terms of capability. So we can definitely pick our spots a bit better than otherwise. And not overly concerned by that. There's always competition, Meyer, as you know, you've heard me talk about this in the past. But I think we're a bit more nimble and a bit more on the edges and find our way around that.

我的意思是，其實不太會。我回到我在發言中提到的：就能力而言，我們的規模還偏小，低於我們可以做到的程度。所以我們確實可以比其他情況更好地挑選切入點。因此不會過度擔心。競爭永遠存在，Meyer，你也知道，你也聽我過去談過這點。但我認為我們更靈活一些，也更能在邊緣地帶運作，找到繞開的方法。

So no concern at this point in time. If we were multiple the size, we would have probably different conversations, although there are ways to address that, as you know. But right now, where we are, I feel very, very good about our opportunities despite some of the lines of business transitioning into Stage 3 and eventually Stage 4, which is only a few of them. And then the quickness by which things move, you're quite right, is a lot of it is short tail in nature, right? Certainly, property is one prime example. But we're not a huge property cat writer as you'll discover over the next several years. So that's not as much of an impact for us.

所以目前這個時間點沒有疑慮。如果我們的規模是現在的好幾倍，我們可能會有不同的對話，雖然如你所知也有方法可以因應。但就目前而言，儘管部分業務線正在轉入第三階段（Stage 3），最終進入第四階段（Stage 4）——而那只是一小部分——我仍然對我們的機會感到非常、非常有信心。至於事情推進的速度，你說得沒錯，很大一部分是因為它本質上屬於短尾（short tail），對吧？當然，財產險就是一個典型例子。但如你在未來幾年會看到的，我們並不是很大的財產巨災（property cat）承保人。所以對我們的影響沒那麼大。

Okay. And then one final question. I don't know if it's numeric or otherwise, but how are you thinking about scale specifically on reinsurance at this point?

好的。最後一個問題。我不確定是否能用數字或其他方式回答，但你們目前如何思考再保（reinsurance）在規模（scale）方面的規劃？

Right now, there's a couple of lines of business that I won't disclose here, but there are more lines of business that we could be doing and growing the portfolio. And since we're also building -- we're still in the next chapter, which is also including building the portfolio, I would expect -- I would not be surprised that reinsurance will go a bit quicker because we're going to be adding new products, new lines of business.

目前有幾條業務線我不會在這裡揭露，但我們其實還有更多業務線可以做，並且擴大投資組合。而且由於我們也正在建構——我們仍在下一個篇章中，這也包含建立投資組合——我會預期……我不會意外再保會走得更快一些，因為我們將會新增新產品、新的業務線。

So we may have a little bit more reinsurance for the short term to take advantage of some of the opportunities that are there as well on the insurance. But as you know, it takes a bit longer to seize on these opportunities on the insurance side. So I'll be front running, if you will, some of the market opportunities on the reinsurance side. But over time, it will be really be reflective of the opportunities, Meyer.

因此，短期內我們可能會增加一些再保險，以便同時把握保險端也存在的一些機會。但如你所知，在保險端要抓住這些機會需要更長的時間。所以我會先行布局（如果你願意這麼說的話）再保險端的一些市場機會。但隨著時間推移，這將真正反映出機會本身，Meyer。

So this is the same as before the opportunities if the capital is there on the reinsurance, and we'll be providing more reinsurance capacity in the market and vice versa with the insurance changes. And I think the reinsurance is probably a slow build, more slowly steady as it goes as we've seen in the past. But I'll let the market dictate, if you will, the relative contribution of reinsurance versus insurance.

所以這和之前一樣：如果再保險端有資本到位、存在機會，我們就會在市場上提供更多再保險承保能力；保險端的變化亦然。而我認為再保險可能會是緩慢累積、較為穩健地逐步建立，就像我們過去看到的那樣。但我會讓市場來決定（如果你願意這麼說的話）再保險相對於保險的相對貢獻度。

[Ali Dashes], an Individual Investor.

[Ali Dashes]，個人投資人。

You described Howard Hughes as built on disciplined capital allocation. Now that Vantage has closed and you have more competing uses for capital than ever, what does that discipline look like in practice? And when opportunities compete for the same dollar, what does an opportunity have to clear to win that capital?

你形容 Howard Hughes 是建立在嚴謹的資本配置之上。現在 Vantage 已完成交割，而你們面臨的資本用途競爭比以往任何時候都更多，這種「紀律」在實務上會是什麼樣子？當不同機會在爭奪同一筆資金時，一個機會必須達到什麼門檻才能贏得這筆資本？

So we believe that we've built -- we've acquired a great insurance platform. We've recruited a very talented, very experienced senior leadership team to kind of oversee that platform. And we believe that capital in the insurance business can be put to work intelligently and earn high rates of return, both in terms of -- from an underwriting perspective and also from an investment perspective. So the priority for every incremental dollar of free cash flow is to put it into Vantage, and that's how we're thinking about it.

我們相信我們已經建立——我們收購了一個很棒的保險平台。我們也招募了一支非常有才華、經驗非常豐富的資深領導團隊來監督這個平台。我們相信，保險業務中的資本可以被聰明地投入運用，並取得很高的報酬率，無論是——從承保角度，還是從投資角度。因此，每增加一美元的自由現金流，我們的優先順序都是投入 Vantage，我們就是這樣思考的。

And then within the asset side of Vantage, as Ryan spoke about, once we've covered kind of our insurance liabilities, the balance, we think it's a very opportune time to invest in the public markets. Volatility has increased enormously, as I'm sure you have noticed.

接著在 Vantage 的資產端，如 Ryan 所提到的，一旦我們覆蓋了我們的保險負債，剩餘的部分，我們認為現在是投資公開市場非常有利的時點。波動性已大幅上升，我相信你也注意到了。

And also, the market's attention is drawn to, I would say, a smaller and smaller subset of -- there's a lot of FOMO going on where people pile into the same sort of sectors. And that's caused a meaningful number of businesses that we have followed for years become available occasionally at very, very attractive prices.

此外，市場的注意力被吸引到——我會說——越來越小的一部分標的上；有很多 FOMO（害怕錯過）在發生，人們一窩蜂湧入相同類型的產業板塊。這導致相當多我們追蹤多年的企業，偶爾會以非常、非常有吸引力的價格出現。

You wake up one day and stocks are down 25%. And based on a short-term factor that once -- assuming we've done our due diligence correctly, we believe it does not have a long-term impact on the business. It's allowed us to construct a very attractive portfolio. So I encourage you to join the Pershing Square call next week. It's 13th, I guess, a week from today, and we're going to go through that portfolio in detail, maybe be able to be more granular in your question.

你某天醒來，股票就跌了 25%。而這是由某個短期因素造成的——在我們假設已正確完成盡職調查的前提下——我們相信它不會對企業的長期基本面造成影響。這讓我們得以建立一個非常有吸引力的投資組合。所以我鼓勵你參加下週的 Pershing Square 電話會議。我想是 13 號，應該是從今天起一週後，我們會詳細介紹那個投資組合，也許能更細緻地回應你的問題。

Okay. And Bill, as a quick follow-up, you're a devoted disciple of Berkshire and Warren Buffett. As Howard Hughes grows into a larger holding company, what lessons from Berkshire's experience matter most here? And where, if anywhere, should Howard Hughes do it differently?

好的。Bill，快速追問一下：你是 Berkshire 和 Warren Buffett 的忠實追隨者。隨著 Howard Hughes 成長為更大型的控股公司，Berkshire 的經驗中哪些教訓在這裡最重要？以及如果有的話，Howard Hughes 應該在哪些地方做得不一樣？

Look, I think business quality is -- we've learned over time is the most important metric in our view in selecting securities for investment. Look at Berkshire over time. Warren Buffett one of the greatest investors ever. But if you go back and read the Berkshire letters to shareholders, Buffett talked about how great a business the world book in Cyclopedia was or the newspaper business, a whole host of various businesses that were disrupted by technology.

你看，我認為企業品質——我們隨著時間學到——在我們看來是選擇投資標的時最重要的衡量指標。看看 Berkshire 長期以來的表現。Warren Buffett 是史上最偉大的投資人之一。但如果你回去讀 Berkshire 給股東的信，Buffett 曾談到 World Book 百科全書或報紙業務是多麼好的生意，以及一大堆後來被科技顛覆的各種企業。

And I think the world has gotten even, I would say, more disruptive. AI is an incredibly disruptive and powerful force. So I think the biggest takeaway from following 60 years of Berkshire on the allocation side is to err toward business durability and quality. I think there are a lot of lessons that we're just following very closely. If you look at how Buffett operated -- first of all, the vast majority of value of Berkshire has been built in the insurance operations.

而我認為這個世界變得——我會說——更加具有顛覆性。AI 是一股極具顛覆性且強大的力量。所以我認為，從追蹤 Berkshire 60 年的資本配置角度來看，最大的收穫是要更偏向於企業的耐久性與品質。我認為有很多教訓我們都在非常密切地遵循。如果你看 Buffett 的運作方式——首先，Berkshire 的絕大部分價值其實是由保險業務建立起來的。

The combination of selective underwriting and intelligent investment of the capital, the assets of the insurer has driven the bulk of the value of that company over time. That's why we acquired Vantage. That's why we recruited Marc and David, and that's why that's really going to be a big focus of the business going forward. I think the other thing that Berkshire did very well over time is all that value was created on largely a fixed share count. And so we could issue a ton of equity and raise capital.

選擇性的承保，加上對保險公司資本與資產的聰明投資，長期以來驅動了那家公司大部分的價值。這就是為什麼我們收購 Vantage。這也是為什麼我們招募 Marc 和 David，而這也將會是未來業務的一個重大重點。我認為 Berkshire 長期做得很好的另一件事是：所有這些價值的創造，基本上是在固定的股數下完成的。因此我們本可以發行大量股權來籌資。

We don't think that's an intelligent approach, certainly at anything close to current share prices. And we think there's plenty of capital within this operation. It just needs to be redirected from kind of lower returning assets into what we believe will be a high-returning asset over time. And I think if we follow those principles, we're going to build a very valuable company over time.

我們不認為那是一種明智的做法，尤其是在任何接近目前股價的水準下。而且我們認為這個營運體系內部有充足的資本。只是需要把資本從一些回報較低的資產，重新導向我們相信長期會是高回報的資產。我認為如果我們遵循這些原則，長期來看我們將打造一家非常有價值的公司。

Josh Kaufman, Stifel.

Josh Kaufman，Stifel。

I know Ryan and Bill said that next week, you guys will be touching more on the investment strategy, but I was wondering since the goal of Vantage is to kind of mirror Pershing's holdings, would it make sense to buy PSUS or one of those other Pershing holdings in order to take advantage of the discount to net asset value right now?

我知道 Ryan 和 Bill 說下週你們會更深入談投資策略，但我想問的是：既然 Vantage 的目標是某種程度上鏡像 Pershing 的持股，那麼為了利用目前相對淨資產價值的折價，去買 PSUS 或其他 Pershing 的持股，是否合理？

Yes. It's not the Pershing Square USA call, but Pershing Square USA is trading at about a 23% discount to its -- the market value of its underlying holdings, and I view that as a very favorable. We like the holdings at net asset value to be able to buy them at a 23% discount, we think, is extremely attractive. But let's save that for next week's call.

是的。這不是 Pershing Square USA 的電話會議，但 Pershing Square USA 目前的交易價格大約較其——其底層持股的市值——折價 23%，我認為這非常有利。我們喜歡以淨資產價值持有這些標的，而能以 23% 的折價買到，我們認為極具吸引力。不過我們把這部分留到下週的電話會議再談。

And if I could, I would say, I think, just real quickly, Josh, to your question, the Howard Hughes stock and the Pershing Square US, they also reflect different things. So for example, PSUS is a pure play on publicly traded securities. What Howard Hughes offers is effectively 2 businesses right now, an increasingly and rapidly growing insurance business run by what we think is really the best insurance management team in the planet.

如果可以的話，我想很快補充一下，Josh，針對你的問題：Howard Hughes 的股票和 Pershing Square US 其實也反映不同的內容。例如，PSUS 是純粹押注於公開交易證券的標的。而 Howard Hughes 目前實際上提供的是兩項業務：一個是正在日益且快速成長的保險業務，由我們認為是全球最優秀的保險管理團隊來經營。

It will also have access to what we believe will be very attractive long-term returns from Pershing Square helping optimize the asset side of the insurance balance sheet, which would be very powerful. And we have a very good real estate business led by a great team where we will have the opportunity to grow that business, but also increasingly redirect some of the excess cash flows and potential asset monetizations to help grow Vantage more quickly.

它也將能取得我們相信非常有吸引力的長期報酬：由 Pershing Square 協助優化保險資產負債表的資產端，這將非常強大。同時我們也有一個非常好的房地產業務，由一支很棒的團隊領導；我們將有機會擴大該業務，但也會逐步把部分超額現金流以及潛在的資產變現，重新導向以更快地壯大 Vantage。

So I also look at them as two businesses, much like you can observe the discount to PSUS, you can calculate according to the supplement that we put out last quarter, what we think the net asset value is of the business and how that will grow over time, which we highlighted, and you can compare that to the share price.

所以我也把它們視為兩種業務；就像你可以觀察 PSUS 的折價一樣，你也可以根據我們上季發布的補充資料，計算我們認為該業務的淨資產價值以及其隨時間如何成長——我們已在其中強調——然後把它與股價做比較。

And clearly, Howard Hughes is also trading at a very significant discount to what we conservatively calculate its net asset or its intrinsic value at. So I would really view it as both are things that clearly we like. We are owners, both individually and through our firm. But we also think they reflect different investment considerations based on the type of ultimate investment exposure that you're seeking.

而且很明顯，Howard Hughes 目前的交易價格，相較於我們以保守方式估算的淨資產價值或其內在價值，也存在非常顯著的折價。所以我會把它視為兩者都是我們明確喜歡的標的。我們是持有人，無論是個人層面或透過我們的公司。但我們也認為，基於你所尋求的最終投資曝險類型，它們反映了不同的投資考量。

Yes. Just to add to what Ryan is saying, we paid $100 a share to buy a 15% stake in Howard Hughes 15 months ago. We've made a huge amount of progress since that time, and the stock price is about the same as it was then, which was in the middle 60s, I haven't checked real time.

是的。補充 Ryan 所說的，我們在 15 個月前以每股 100 美元買入 Howard Hughes 15% 的持股。自那時以來我們取得了非常大的進展，而股價大約與當時差不多；當時大概在 60 多美元的中段，我沒有即時查詢。

This is a business that has, we think, not only increased intrinsic value over the last 15 months by generating cash and growing. But more significantly, we've acquired -- we're clearly on our way to building an interesting company with a great platform, the addition of Marc and David to that platform, the redeployment of the capital of that business into higher returning assets. So we're excited about where we are.

我們認為，這是一家在過去 15 個月不僅透過產生現金與成長而提升了內在價值的企業。但更重要的是，我們已經完成了收購——我們顯然正走在打造一家有趣公司的路上，擁有很棒的平台；Marc 與 David 加入這個平台，以及把該業務的資本重新配置到報酬率更高的資產上。所以我們對目前的進展感到振奮。

Tucker Andersen, Above All Advisors.

Tucker Andersen，Above All Advisors。

I want to thank Marc as a long-term holder of Arch Capital. And my question to Marc is, there's been a lot of discussion about how AI is going to affect the insurance business, particularly the PC business and the underwriting side. And I'm wondering how you view AI might change how you want to operate Vantage in the future and what you're doing to take advantage of it.

作為 Arch Capital 的長期持有人，我想感謝 Marc。我想問 Marc 的問題是，大家一直在討論 AI 將如何影響保險業，特別是產險（P&C）業務與核保端。我想知道你如何看待 AI 可能在未來改變你經營 Vantage 的方式，以及你們正在做些什麼來加以利用。

Great question. I think First things first is AI is being used across Vantage and testing it out and working with it, helping with the coding. It's already helping us being a bit more efficient in many areas, but it's still early stages, right? The way we look at AI right now is going to be a great tool for us to be better execution on decision-making and gathering data and getting access to data. So that's currently underway.

好問題。我想首先，AI 已在 Vantage 各處被使用，我們也在測試並與之合作，協助程式撰寫。它已經在許多領域幫助我們提升一些效率，但仍處於早期階段，對吧？我們目前看待 AI 的方式是，它會成為一個很棒的工具，讓我們在決策執行、資料蒐集以及取得資料方面做得更好。所以這些目前都在進行中。

That's really going to be so first and foremost, the companies really utilizing to leverage it for themselves to improve the flow and the processes and the decision-making, which we're already doing it. Over time, it's very difficult to see, right? I think that there will be more and more automation across the supply chain, how we go from the insurer to the broker, to the insurance company, to the reinsurance company.

所以最重要的是，公司會真正運用它來為自身加槓桿，改善流程、作業與決策，而我們已經在做了。隨著時間推移，這很難預見，對吧？我認為在整個供應鏈上會出現越來越多的自動化，也就是我們如何從保險人到經紀人、到保險公司、再到再保險公司。

There's going to be a lot more work over time, I could perceive possibly integration across the whole value proposition, we'll be positioned to take advantage of it. And it's going to be an industry-wide phenomenon, and we'll be participating like everyone else. Is there an opportunity for someone such as ourselves to be a disruptor? Remains to be seen. There's a lot to happen. It's really hard to the future. But clearly, it's going to enable making better decisions, and we're already using this as a tool to help our decision-making.

隨著時間推移，還會有更多工作；我可以想像，可能會在整個價值主張上出現整合，而我們將具備條件加以利用。這將是全產業的現象，我們會像其他人一樣參與其中。像我們這樣的公司是否有機會成為顛覆者？仍有待觀察。還有很多事情會發生。要預測未來真的很難。但很明顯，它將使我們能做出更好的決策，而我們已經把它當作工具來協助決策。

And a follow-on question would be, do you care to speculate at all on if it might change the nature and duration of the underwriting cycles as you describe them?

接續的問題是，你願不願意稍微推測一下，它是否可能改變你所描述的核保循環的性質與持續時間？

The one thing -- well, it could. The only thing I have historically, Tucker, that I can look back on is the when we had all the property cat modeling that came to the marketplace, the big argument was supposed to be standardizing the way we look at risk and it would make soft market go away forever. And I've heard this for a hard market for that matter. And that was used like in the mid-'90s when AIR, the RMS, all the cat modeling came up. And guess what, it didn't solve the cycle, what's happening in each cycle.

有一件事——嗯，它可能會。Tucker，我唯一能回顧的歷史經驗是，當所有的巨災（cat）財產模型進入市場時，當時最大的論點是它應該能標準化我們看待風險的方式，並讓軟市永遠消失。而且就硬市而言，我也聽過這種說法。那是在 90 年代中期，AIR、RMS 等所有巨災模型出現的時候。結果呢，它並沒有解決循環，也沒有解決每個循環中發生的事情。

And I think it's because it's a human nature like everything else, it's between the human system, right? It's one thing that the model is giving you a number, but it's another thing to actually act upon it and execute on that basis. Many reasons for that, one of which might be or has always been the way underwriting teams are compensated. So there's always these things really mucking around what ultimately the decision will be made.

我認為原因在於，這像其他事情一樣是人性問題，存在於人為系統之中，對吧？模型給你一個數字是一回事，但實際上是否依此採取行動並執行又是另一回事。原因很多，其中之一可能是、也一直是核保團隊的薪酬激勵方式。所以總是有這些因素在攪動，影響最終會做出什麼決策。

So I'm not saying it's going to be the same thing, but I -- the only one thing that I remember in my lifetime in my career that it did not change the cyclical nature of the businesses because there's human intervention in there. So when are you going to ask me when do you think we'll have no human interventions? I don't think I'm going to see this in my lifetime. And so it gives us plenty of opportunity to take advantage of the market.

所以我不是說它會是同樣的情況，但——我職涯中唯一記得的一件事是，它並沒有改變這些業務的循環性，因為其中有人為介入。所以你什麼時候要問我：你覺得什麼時候會沒有任何人為介入？我不認為我這輩子會看到。因此，這也給了我們充足的機會去把握市場。

Thank you. I appreciate your insights as a former actuary. I remember the description of what happened well. That was my previous life. And I am just counting on you to reproduce what happened at the Arch now that you're at Howard Hughes.

謝謝。作為前精算師，我很感謝你的見解。我很清楚記得當時發生的情況描述。那是我上一段人生。而我就指望你在 Howard Hughes 也能複製你在 Arch 發生的那些成果。

And I would now like to turn the call back to Bill for closing remarks.

現在我想把電話交回給 Bill 作結語。

Thank you. So thank you all for joining. We're excited about the current state of play at Howard Hughes, and we look forward to being in touch next quarter. If you care to join next week, we will be discussing the Vantage underlying portfolio in some detail. We welcome you to that -- to the Pershing Square call next week. Thanks very much.

謝謝。所以也謝謝各位的參與。我們對 Howard Hughes 目前的進展感到振奮，並期待在下個季度再與各位保持聯繫。如果各位願意在下週加入，我們將更詳細地討論 Vantage 的底層投資組合。我們也歡迎各位——參加下週的 Pershing Square 電話會議。非常感謝。

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線